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Florida Wildfires during the Holocene Climatic Optimum (9,000-5,000 cal yr BP)

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Title:
Florida Wildfires during the Holocene Climatic Optimum (9,000-5,000 cal yr BP)
Creator:
Larios, Kalindhi A
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[Gainesville, Fla.]
Florida
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University of Florida
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english
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1 online resource (55 p.)

Thesis/Dissertation Information

Degree:
Master's ( M.S.)
Degree Grantor:
University of Florida
Degree Disciplines:
Interdisciplinary Ecology
Committee Chair:
GERBER,STEFAN
Committee Co-Chair:
PUTZ,FRANCIS E
Committee Members:
BRENNER,MARK
Graduation Date:
5/2/2015

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Subjects / Keywords:
Ambrosia ( jstor )
Carbonates ( jstor )
Charcoal ( jstor )
Climate change ( jstor )
Ecology ( jstor )
Ecosystems ( jstor )
Fungal spores ( jstor )
Lakes ( jstor )
Pollen ( jstor )
Sediments ( jstor )
Interdisciplinary Ecology -- Dissertations, Academic -- UF
charcoal -- fire -- florida -- holocene -- hypsithermal -- pollen
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bibliography ( marcgt )
theses ( marcgt )
government publication (state, provincial, terriorial, dependent) ( marcgt )
born-digital ( sobekcm )
Electronic Thesis or Dissertation
Interdisciplinary Ecology thesis, M.S.

Notes

Abstract:
Fire is an important ecological driver in pine forests of the southeastern United States, and the combination of plant species composition and fire pose the possibility of positive feedback loops in a landscape. With global warming predicted in the coming century, it is uncertain how fire regimes will change. To better understand the main factors that control fire, I reconstructed Holocene fire history, using macroscopic charcoal (as a fire proxy) in sediment cores from two lakes in the Orange Creek Basin, north Florida. A decline in charcoal concentration was observed at ~8,000 cal yr BP in a 3.9-m core from Newnans Lake that has a basal age of 8,870 cal yr BP. The decline in charcoal concentration occurs at ~7,000 cal yr BP in a 5.4-m core from Lochloosa Lake, which has a basal age of 9,280 cal yr BP. In Newnans Lake, the number of charcoal particles per cm3 decreased by 99% between depths 290 and 0 cm. In the Lochloosa core, there was a more than 99% decline in the number of charcoal particles per cm3 between 375 and 0 cm. This decline in charcoal concentration is not simply an artifact of changes in bulk sedimentation, i.e. dilution, but instead reflects charcoal production. Overall, Newnans Lake averaged ~9.14 charcoal particles per cm3 and Lochloosa Lake averaged ~40.42 charcoal particles per cm3. Pollen records from the two lakes in the Orange Creek Basin do not display the regional pattern of a Quercus to Pinus shift during the Holocene Climatic Optimum (9,000-5,000 cal yr BP) seen in previously studied lakes. Instead, Pinus pollen abundances are high (>50%) through the entire Holocene. Pollen counts are; however, lower in the early Holocene deposits, as is the diversity of arboreal pollen. No successional relation was found between macroscopic charcoal quantity and the pollen spectra, i.e. before, during, after charcoal peaks. Qualitatively, pollen types were similar only within charcoal-rich and charcoal-poor depth intervals. Early Holocene sediments contained Quercus spp., Pinus spp., Chenopodium spp., Ambrosia spp., and graminoids. Late Holocene sediments contained mesic pollen types including Taxodium spp., Liquidambar spp., Carya spp., Ilex spp. ( en )
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In the series University of Florida Digital Collections.
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Includes vita.
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Includes bibliographical references.
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Description based on online resource; title from PDF title page.
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This bibliographic record is available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication. The University of Florida Libraries, as creator of this bibliographic record, has waived all rights to it worldwide under copyright law, including all related and neighboring rights, to the extent allowed by law.
Thesis:
Thesis (M.S.)--University of Florida, 2015.
Local:
Adviser: GERBER,STEFAN.
Local:
Co-adviser: PUTZ,FRANCIS E.
Electronic Access:
RESTRICTED TO UF STUDENTS, STAFF, FACULTY, AND ON-CAMPUS USE UNTIL 2015-11-30
Statement of Responsibility:
by Kalindhi A Larios.

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Applicable rights reserved.
Embargo Date:
11/30/2015
Classification:
LD1780 2015 ( lcc )

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FLORIDA WILDFIRES DURING THE HOLOCENE CLIMATIC OPTIMUM (9,000 5,000 c al yr BP) By KALINDHI LARIOS A THESIS PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 2015

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© 2015 Kalindhi Larios

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To my mom and dad for all their efforts to ensure my future was bright. To my loving husband for providing his moral support during the low and high moments of my graduate career. Finally, to my sisters and little brother for always bringing a smile to my face throughout my adventures in life.

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4 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I wo uld like to thank Hongshan Wang for helping me decide on the best methodology to create my pollen slides. I am thankful to Steven Manchester for being generous and allowing me to use his palynology lab at the FLMNH. I would also like to acknowledge the Society of Professional Hispanic engineers, without their funding I would not have been able to send samples for AMS dating.

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5 TABLE OF CONTENTS page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ................................ ................................ ................................ .. 4 LIST OF TABLES ................................ ................................ ................................ ............ 7 LIST OF FIGURES ................................ ................................ ................................ .......... 8 LIST OF ABBREV IATIONS ................................ ................................ ............................. 9 ABSTRACT ................................ ................................ ................................ ................... 10 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION ................................ ................................ ................................ .... 12 Genera l Introduction ................................ ................................ ............................... 12 Site Description ................................ ................................ ................................ ....... 15 2 METHODOLOGY ................................ ................................ ................................ ... 19 Sediment C orin g ................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 19 Chronology ................................ ................................ ................................ ............. 19 Loss on Ignition ................................ ................................ ................................ ....... 20 Macroscopic Charcoal ................................ ................................ ............................ 21 Pollen ................................ ................................ ................................ ...................... 22 GIS Land Cover Analysis ................................ ................................ ........................ 22 3 RESULTS ................................ ................................ ................................ ............... 25 Chronology ................................ ................................ ................................ ............. 25 Loss on Ignition ................................ ................................ ................................ ....... 25 Macroscopic Charcoal ................................ ................................ ............................ 26 Pollen ................................ ................................ ................................ ...................... 26 Elevation and Upland/W etland Area Ratios ................................ ............................ 27 4 DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS ................................ ................................ ...... 33 APPENDIX A LOI PERCENTAGES FOR LOCHLOOSA LAKE ................................ .................... 37 B LOI PERCENTAGES NEWNANS LAKE ................................ ................................ . 39 C RHO AND CHARCOAL COUNTS IN LOCHLOOSA LAKE ................................ .... 41 D RHO AND CHARCOAL COUNTS IN NEWNANS LAKE ................................ ........ 43

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6 E OAK AND PINE COUNTS IN LOCHLOOSA LAKE ................................ ................ 45 F OAK AND PINE COUNTS IN NEWNANS LAKE ................................ .................... 47 G POLLEN TYPES FOUND IN LOCHLOOSA LAKE ................................ ................. 49 H POLLEN TYPES FOUND IN NEWNANS LAKE ................................ ..................... 50 LIST OF REFERENCES ................................ ................................ ............................... 51 BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH ................................ ................................ ............................ 55

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7 LIST OF TABLES Table page 3 1 AMS 14 C dates for Newnans and Lochloosa Lake. ................................ ............. 28

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8 LIST OF FIGURES Figure page 1 1 Map of Orange Cre ek Basin. . ................................ ................................ ............ 18 2 1 Water Loss in Loch . ................................ ............................. 24 3 1 Lake Sediment Age Depth Models. ................................ ................................ .... 28 3 2 Percent organic matter, carbonate, and non carbonate inorganic content in lake sediments. ................................ ................................ ................................ ... 29 3 3 Charcoal concentration versus depth in lake sediment cores. ........................... 29 3 4 Charcoal accumulation rate versus depth. ................................ ........................ 30 3 5 Relative abundances of Pinus and Quercus pollen and total pollen counts. ...... 31 3 6 Upland/Wetland Area Ratios versus Elevation in six Florida Lakes. .................. 32

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9 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AMS Accelerator Mass Spectrometry CHAR Charcoal Accumulation Rate FNAI Florida Natural Areas Inventory HCO Holocene Climatic Optimum IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change LOI Loss on Ignition s OM Organic Matter pMC P ercent Modern Carbon

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10 Abstract of Thesis Presented to the Graduate School of the University of Florida in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science FLORIDA WILDFIRES DURING THE HOLOCENE CLIMATIC OPTIMUM (9,000 5,000 cal yr BP) By Kalindhi Larios May 2015 Chair: Stefan Gerber Major: Interdisciplinary Ecology Fire is an important ecological driver in pine forests of the southeastern United States, and the combination of plant species composition and fire pose the possibility of positive feedback loops in a landscape. With global warming predicted in the coming century, it is uncertain how fire regimes will change. To better understand the main factors that control fire, I reconstructed Holocene fire history, using macroscopic charcoal (as a fire proxy) in sediment cores from two lakes in the Orange Creek Basin, north Florida. A decline in charcoal concentration was observed at ~ 8,000 cal yr BP in a 3.9 m core from Newnans Lake that has a basal age of 8,870 cal yr BP. The decline in charcoal concentration occurs at ~7,000 cal yr BP in a 5.4 m core from Lochloosa L ake, which has a basal age of 9,280 cal yr BP. In Newnans Lake, the number of charcoal particles per cm 3 decreased by 9 9 % between depths 290 and 0 cm. In the Lochloosa core, there was a more than 9 9 % decline in the number of charcoal particles per cm 3 between 375 and 0 cm. This decline in charcoal concentration is not simply an artifact of changes in bulk sedimentation, i.e. dilution, but instead reflects charcoal production. Overall, Newnans Lake averaged ~9.14 charcoal particles per cm 3 and Lochloosa Lake

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11 averaged ~40.42 charcoal particles per cm 3 . Pollen records from the two lakes in the Orange Creek Basin do not display the regional pattern of a Quercus to Pinus shift during the Holocene Climatic Optimum (9,000 5,000 cal yr BP) seen in previously st udied lakes. Instead, Pinus pollen abundances are high (>50%) through the entire Holocene. Pollen counts are , however, lower in the early Holocene deposits, as is the diversity of arboreal pollen. No successional relation was found between macroscopic char coal quantity and the pollen spectra, i.e. before, during, after charcoal peaks. Qualitatively, p ollen types were similar only within charcoal rich and charcoal poor depth intervals . Early Holocene sediments contained Quercus spp., Pinus spp., Chenopodium spp., Ambrosia spp., and graminoi ds. Late Holocene sediments contained mesic pollen types including Taxodium spp., Liquidambar spp., Carya spp., and Ilex spp.

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12 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION General Introduction Fire plays an important role in carbon cycling in many terrestrial ecosystems (Beedlow, 2004; Bowman et al., 2009; Whitlock et al., 2010). Global mean temperature is expected to increase by 1 6ºC in the coming century, and consequently, recent research has focused on ho w temperature affects whether terrestrial ecosystems act as carbon sinks or sources (Stocker et al. , 2013). Both temperature and fire have been identified as key drivers in converting permafrost soils from carbon sinks to sources ( Stocker et al. , 2013). Th e same is true of tropical systems including the African Savanna Biome (Bowman et al., 2009) . There is, however, great uncertainty about the magnitude of the effect that fire has on carbon fluxes. The 2013 IPCC report identified fire as an ecosystem compon ent whose role in the carbon cycle has yet to be determined (Stocker et al., 2013) . The length of fire seasons is projected to increase as a result of climate change (Flannigan, 2000; Stocker et al. , 2013). Consequently, there has been increased interest in understanding how fire has behaved historically. Although permafrost in boreal regions has received considerable attention, the structure and function of many other ecosystems also depend on fire (Bond and Keeley, 2005; Bowman et al., 2009; Staver et a l., 2011). For instance, flatwood ecosystems of the southeastern United States are maintained in a stable, nearly non successional state by fire (Myers, 1990). Alteration of fire frequency or fire seasonality can lead to succession, from a flatwood ecosyst em to a variety of vegetation types, depending on climate, topography and edaphic conditions (Myers, 1990). This means that climate change in the coming

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13 century has the potential to push plant communities to ecological thresholds and change the stable stat e of these ecosystems. The dominant drivers of fire vary, depending on temporal and spatial scales. For instance, weather, fuel (accumulated biomass) and local topography are the dominant drivers at the seasonal time scale, whereas climate, vegetation typ e and regional controls (ENSO variability) are the dominant drivers at decadal to millennial time scales ( Whitlock et al., 2010 ). We have a reasonably good understanding of short time scale fire regimes, but as pointed out by Whitlock et al. (2010), this k nowledge can lead to erroneous conclusions about longer term fire patterns. F or example , the assumption that fire suppression in western U.S. pine forests moved fire regimes (frequency and severity) beyond historical ranges. Charcoal and tree ring data sug gest this is not the case. Examination of fire on longer time scales offers a more reliable picture of historical fire variability ( Whitlock et al., 2010 ). There are many approaches that one can take to reconstruct fire history. Analysis of fire scars, al ong with dendrochronology, has been used to reconstruct the last 300 500 years of fire history in central Yellowstone National Park (Higuera et al., 2011). The most common method, and the one I utilized in this study, is quantification of charcoal particle s in lake sediments. The use of charcoal as a proxy variable for past fires has been corroborated with empirical studies that linked counts of charcoal particles with the timing of known fires (Whitlock and Larsen, 2001; Clark et al., 1996). Theoretical an d empirical evidence has shown that the number of microscopic charcoal pieces <90 Whitlock and Larsen, 2001). On the other hand, counts of larger macroscopic charcoal

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14 pieces (>100 hundred meters and 10 km from the lake, depending on the convective height of fires (Clark, 1988; Whitlock and Larsen, 2001). Some evidence suggests it is the most severe fires that are bes t reflected by the charcoal signal in lake sediments (Higuera et al. 2011). Fire occurrence in terrestrial ecosystems is a function of fuel characteristics (e.g., abundance, type, and moisture status) and ignition source (Bowman et al., 2009; Whitlock et al., 2010). Charcoal is produced by the incomplete combustion of organic matter. Conditions for charcoal formation vary. For instance, it can be produced at temperature ranges between 250 and 800ºC and the amount produced can vary as a result of fire sprea d patterns (backing versus head fires) (Antal and Gronli, 2003; Carvalho et al., 2011; Gundale and DeLuca, 2006). Charcoal production represents a small portion of available biomass burned during a wildfire or prescribed burn (0.6 8%) (Carvalho et al., 20 11). Transport of charcoal particles is largely dependent on particle size and the convective height of a fire (Clark, 1988; Whitlock and Larsen, 2001). The convective height of a fire is a zone where a difference in temperature from the atmosphere and the actual fire causes wind to inject charcoal pieces vertically into the atmosphere (Clark, 1988). Once in the atmosphere, the charcoal pieces are transported by wind and may be deposited in a lake (Whitlock and Larsen, 2001). Over time, these charcoal piece s settle on lake bottoms. The greater the convective height, the longer the transport distance (Clark, 1988). Generally, particle sizes >100 m to 10 km from the fire source. This means that the macroscopic charcoal found in the lake sediments most likely originated from a fire source 0 10 km from the lake shore.

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15 When coupled with pollen analysis, the charcoal record enables one to study relations among climate, fire, and vegetation composition. The few studies that have investigated t he relationship between pollen and charcoal, however, found little correspondence between the two ( Higuera et al., 2011; Tinner et al., 2008; Whit lock et al., 2008 ). This is partly because the spatial scales represented by these two proxy variables differ by orders of magnitude ( Higuera et al., 2011 ). That is, pollen typically travels much farther than charcoal. Furthermore, macroscopic charcoal displays a complex relationship with climate and vegetation, which is a consequence of the nonlinear relation bet ween drought and fuel availability. Therefore, charcoal abundance can increase in lake sediments whether climate is dry or wet. For example, Higuera Gundy et al. (1999) found that charcoal abundance in the Holocene sediment of Lake Miragoane, Haiti, increa sed through time in association with an increase in moisture availability. It was suggested that strong early Holocene seasonality persisted into the middle Holocene, and together with forest expansion that provided sufficient fuel for natural combustion, there was an increase in charcoal deposition by ~5 , 400 14 C yr BP ( Higuera Gundy et al., 1999). Site Description Macroscopic charcoal in sediment cores from two lakes, Newnans and Lochloosa, was used to reconstruct Holocene fire history in north Florida. F lorida was chosen as the study location because pyrogenic plant communities such as prairies and longleaf pine forests are native ecosystems (Myers, 1990). Furthermore, Florida has vast numbers of shallow lakes, most of which have held water for at least the last 7,000 to 10,000 years. The Holocene Climatic Optimum (HCO, 9,000 5,000 cal yr BP) was characterized by a global mean temperature 2ºC higher than pre industrial values ( AD

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16 1750), and may serve as an informative analogue for changes in fire regimes and vegetation in Florida that may occur over the coming century. Newnans Lake ( 29° 39' 22" N, 82° 14' 34" W) (Figure 1 1) is the northernmost water body in the Orange Creek Basin, north central Florida (Lippincott, 2011). It covers about 2,307 hectares and receives overland flow from Hatchet and Little Hatchet Prairie and ultimately into Orange Lake (Figure 1 1). The surrounding natural plant communities include mesi c flatwoods, sandhills, floodplain swamps and wet flatwoods (St. Johns River Management District, 2013). Lochloosa Lake has a surface area of about 2,470 hectares with headwaters near Santa Fe Lake (Lippincott, 2011). Lochloosa Creek flows south into Lochl oosa Lake, where water then discharges into Orange Lake via Cross Creek. Surrounding natural community types include floodplain marshes, mesic flatwoods, floodplain swamps and hydric hammocks (St. Johns River Management District, 2010). The goal of this research was to determine if a relationship exists between pollen spectra and macroscopic charcoal in sediment cores from two north Florida lakes. During the HCO, pollen records in Florida show a regional pattern characterized by a shift f rom high relative percentages of Quercus (oak) pollen (>50%) to high percentages of Pinus (pine) pollen (>60%) (Watts, 1969; Watts, 1980, Watts et al., 1992; Grimm et al., 1993; Grimm et al., 2006). The pollen shift during the HCO is thought to represent a change from a dry, oak scrub environment to a wetter pine environment, with expanding bayheads. Fire is thought to have been an important factor in this transition from Quercus to Pinus (Myers, 1990). For this study, I set out to test whether local fire history

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1 7 was different between the Quercus and Pinus phases. I used counts of oak and pine pollen to test the hypothesis that charcoal accumulation rates were greatest during periods of hig h abundance of Quercus pollen, and lowest during periods of high abundance of Pinus pollen. Successional patterns were also of interest, specifically if they can be observed in the pollen record and if they are associated with changes in macroscopic charco al, a local fire signal. Only two studies have quantified charcoal in Florida lake sediment cores. Watts and Hansen (1988) counted microscopic charcoal in a core from Lake Tulane , south central Florida, using the point count estimation method. They found t he greatest charcoal concentrations occurred in sediments deposited between 12,900 and 7,800 cal yr BP (Watts and Hansen, 1988). Holly (1976) quantified microscopic charcoal as a proportio n of total arboreal pollen in an undated core from Newnans Lake, nor th central Florida. Despite the lack of a good age depth relation, he suggested that there was a general decreasing trend from early to late Holocene. To my knowledge this study is the first to quantify macroscopic charcoal in Florida throughout the entir e Holocene.

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18 Figure 1 1 . Map of Orange Creek Basin. Sampling sites include Newnans Lake and Lochloosa Lake.

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19 CHAPTER 2 M ETHODOLOGY Sediment C oring On 29 May 2013, a 3.9 m core was retrieved from northeastern Newnans Lake in 2.8 m of water. The core was taken in meter long sections using a piston corer that uses 6 cm diameter polycarbonate core tubes. Uppermost, unconsolidated sediments were collect ed with a sediment water interface corer (Fisher et al. , 1992) and extruded in the field vertically and cut at 4 cm intervals. Samples were placed in labeled plastic containers. Remaining core sections were transported to the University of Florida core s torage facility and kept under refrige ration at 4°C until analysis. On November 2008, a 5.4 m core was retrieved from Lochloosa Lake by personnel from the University of Florida Land Use and Environmental Change Institute. The entire core was sectioned at 5 cm intervals and placed in labeled plastic cont ainers and scintillation vials. Chronology Each of the 1 m core sections from Newnans Lake was opened using a splitter with two razor knives that cut through the plastic core tube lengthwise, on opposite side s. A wire was run through the sediment core and the two halves of the core were separated. Each core half was wrapped in Saran Wrap® and packaged for storage in polyethylene bags that were heat sealed on both ends. Terrestrial material was collected for r adiocarbon dating as the core samples were ana lyzed for charcoal. Three samples (2 wood, 1 leaf cuticle) were sent for AMS 14 C dating to Beta Analytic, Miami, FL. All samples for dating were collected using forceps, washed with deionized water, and placed in a drying oven at 60ºC overnight before being shipped to Beta Analytic.

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20 Four points were used to construct an age depth model, the three AMS dates and the date of core collection, i.e. the top of the core (0 cm). The Lochloosa Lake core age depth model w as constructed using 10 AMS 14 C dates on terrestrial remains. Samples were analyzed at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California. All radiocarbon dates were calibrated using IntCal13 (Reimer et al. , 2013). Modern dates (i.e. post A D 1950) were calibrated using the NH2 post bomb calibration curve (Hua et al. , 2013). Bacon version 2.2, an R package that uses a Bayesian statistical approach to lake sediment age depth modeling, was used to estimate sediment accumulation rates (Blaauw a nd Christen, 2011; R Development Cor e Team, 2012) in the two lakes. Loss on Ignition Wet and dry weight content of sediment was estimated gravimetrically using 1 cm 3 subsamples. Wet samples were placed in a drying oven at 60ºC for 48 hours. Water loss was determined by the difference between the wet and dry weight. Organic matter (OM) and carbonate content in the same samples were also estimated gravimetrically. Weig hed dry samples were combusted at 550ºC for four hours in an isotemp muffle furnace and re weighed to estimate OM. The ash samples were then burned at 1 , 000ºC for two hours and weighed again to estimate CO 2 loss from carbonate. Total carbonate, assumed to be CaCO 3 , was estimated by multiplying the weight loss by 2.27 (molecular weight of CaCO 3 /molecular weight of CO 2 ). Rho, the dry mass (g) per wet volume (cm 3 ) was calculated using ( equation 2 1) measured values for water content, organic matter, and the inorganic proportion of dry material at each depth:

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21 Rho x = D x (2.5I x + 1.6C x ) ÷ [D x + (1 D x ) (2.5I x + 1.6C x )] (2 1) Where Rho is dry mass per wet volume, x is the depth in the core (cm), D is the proportion dry weight, I is the inorganic proportion of dry material (density= 2.5 g cm 3 ), and C is the organic proportion of dry material (density= 1.6 g cm 3 ) (Binford, 1990) . Organic and inorganic densities were estimated empirically from lake sediments in New England (Binford, 1990). The 5 cm core sections from Lochloosa Lake experienced water loss between the time the core was collected and sampled for charcoal and pollen analysis. Percent water loss (%V loss from H20 ) was estimated for 18 core depths using the known original and curr ent volumes of the 5 cm core sections (equation 2 2) . These 18 values were fitted with a n exponential model (equation 2 3) . %V loss from H2 O = (V original V current )/ V original (2 2) %V loss from H2 O = a + be Depth*c (2 3) The parameters for my nonlinear function, which was used to estimate the percentage volume loss as a result of water loss over depth, included a=0.28 (p<0.001), b=0.8 (p<0.001 ), and c=0.0089 (p<0.01) (Figure 2 1 A ). This yielded an equation of %V loss from H2O = 0.28 + 0.80e D epth*0.0089 which wa s normally distributed (Fig ure 2 1 B ). Output from this exponential model was used to calculate Rho values (dry weight [g]/wet volume [cm 3 ]). Macroscopic Charcoal Wet sediment (1.5 cm 3 ) was collected every 5 cm in the Lochloosa Lake core in 5% sodium hexametaphosphate to deflocculate organic matter (Whitlock and Larsen,

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22 2001). Samples were gently sieved with a 100 mesh screen. Thus, all counted to dry overnight at 60ºC. Charcoal pieces were counted under a dissecting light microscope at 20X magnification. Charcoal a ccumulation (CHAR, charcoal p articles cm 2 yr 1 ) was calculated by multiplying charcoal particles/ g dry by Rho (g dry cm 3 ) and dividing it by deposition rate (yr cm 1 ) . Pollen Samples for pollen (1 cm 3 ) were collected from 1 cm depth increments immediately below, within, and just above charcoal peaks. 10% KOH was used to remove humic acids and disaggregate the sediment (Faegri et al., 1992; Jarzen, 2006; Traverse, 2007; Wright, 1986). This process was repeated until the supernatant was transparen t. Samples were then sieved through 150 particles (Faegri et al., 1992; Jarzen, 2006; Traverse, 2007; Wright, 1986). Slides were prepared using a glycerin jelly mixture (Jarzen, 2006). Up to 500 grains of Pinus and Quercus pollen grains were counted per sample at 400X magnification. An inventory was kept of other pollen types to infer natural community type based on the Florida GIS Land Cover Analysis Wetland and upland are as were calculated within a 10 km radius around lakes of interest (Newnans, Lochloosa, Mud, Sheelar, Tulane, and Camel ) using the Florida Cooperative Land Cover Map version 2.3 ESRI polygon data files ( FNAI, 2012). Mud Lake, Sheelar Lake, Camel Lake, and Lake Tulane were included in our analysis because they had a sedimentation history that continued through the early Holocene, and their pollen record contained the Quercus to Pinus shift. Not all lake s William Watts

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23 sampled for pollen, such as Lake Annie a nd Lake Louise, were included in the analysis due to the unavailability of shapefile data. Wetland to upland area ratios were estimated to examine topographic influences on vegetation in the central highlands versus the gulf coastal lowlands of Florida. Mud Lake, Sheelar Lake, and Lake Tulane are located in Central Valley. Camel Lake is located in the Gulf coastal lowlands. Elevation data around the lakes were from U.S. topogr aphic maps obtained from the U.S. Geological Lacustrine, riverine, and estuarine systems were not included in area estimations. Agriculture, roads, mining, and urban landscape areas were included in upland est imates , because on long timescale s, these areas would have been natural.

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24 Figure 2 1. . A ) Exponential model fitted through 18 depth points in the Lake Lochloosa core to estimate percent water loss (V original V current ) /V original from the sed iments between 2008 and 2013. B ) Q Q plot of the nonlinear model shows it is normally distributed.

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25 CHAPTER 3 RESULTS Chronology Radiocarbon dates for the three samples from the Newnans Lake core and the ten samples fr om Lochloosa Lake core are listed in Table 3 1. The age depth model constructed for each lake was used to interpolate and extrapolate ages at undated depths (Figure 3 1). The age at the basal depth (390) in the Newnans Lake core was estimated to be 8,870 c al yr BP. The bottom sample in the Lochloosa Lake core was estimated to have a date of 9, 280 cal yr BP. Loss on Ignition Carbonate content (range: 0 8%, mean =4.8%; Figure 3 2A ) in the Newnans Lake core is low throughout the entirety of the section. Organic matter (OM) (range: 7 79%, mean =41.4%; Figure 3 2A ) increases gradually from 7% to 57% between 390 and 280 cm depth. OM fluctuates up and down until about 50 cm, and then increases gradually to 79%. OM displays an inverse relationship with the non carbona te inorganic content (range: 20.7 80.1%, mean =53.7%; Figure 3 2A ). Early Holocene sediments in Lochloosa Lake had a high carbonate content (range: 0 75.8%, mean=14.9%; Figure 3 2B ) . Carbonate content remains high until about 380 cm when it drops from 50% to 13% carbonate and remains low throughout the remainder of the core. OM content (range : 8.6 68.7%, mean=37.4%; Figure 3 2B ) increases gradually and remains nearly constant, at ~50%. Similar to the Newnans Lake core, the non carbonate inorganic content (r ange : 4.4 86.4%, mean=47.7%, Figure 3 2B ) displays an inverse relationship with OM content.

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26 Macroscopic Charcoal Charcoal samples in the Newnans Lake core averaged about 9.14 charcoal particles per wet cm 3 , whereas in the Lochloosa Lake core there was an average of 40.42 charcoal particles per wet cm 3 . In the depth interval from 380 to 290 cm in the Newnans Lake core, the mean charcoal particle concentration was 20x greater than the mean for other depths (Fi gure 3 3A ). The depth interval 535 375 cm in the Lochloosa Lake core had charcoal particle concentrations >80 x greater than the mean for other depths (Figure 3 3A ). In both the Newnans and Lochloosa cores, depths with high charcoal concentrations are also depths with high charcoal accumulation rates (Fig ure s 3 4A and 3 4B ) . This is the case because the bulk sediment accumulation rate does not change dramatically, whereas the charcoal concentration does. The rise in charcoal is observed in the Newnans Lake core at a depth of 307 cm, between 8 , 040 and 7 , 965 cal yr BP. In the Lochloosa core, the rise in charcoal begins at 375 cm depth, which was dated to between 7 , 325 and 6 ,720 cal yr BP. Pollen The relative abundance of Pinus spp. pollen remains high in the early Holocene portions of both the Newnans Lake and Lochloosa Lake cores (Fig ure s 3 5 A and 3 5B ). A small increase in the relative abundance of Quercus spp. pollen occurs during the late Holocene. Total pollen counts (number/cm 3 ) increase from the early to late Holocene (Fig ure s 3 5 A and 3 5B ). Th e relation between pine and oak pollen , and other pollen types ( Chenopodium, Poaceae, Ambrosia ) did not differ before, during, or after charcoal peaks. There was , however, a difference in pollen types between the charcoal rich and charcoal poor depths in b oth lakes. Throughout the charcoal poor depths, there is a higher diversity of arboreal pollen, including Carya spp. , Liquidambar spp. , Taxodium

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27 spp. , Ilex spp., Myrica spp., Pinus spp., and Quercus spp. Non arboreal pollen include Poaceae, Cyperaceae , Ambrosia spp. , and Amaranthus/Chenopodium spp. Throughout the charcoal rich depths, however, arboreal pollen diversity is low, consisting of Pinus spp. and Quercus spp. The dominant pollen grain is the weedy Amaranthus/ Chenopodium spp. Poaceae and Ambrosia spp. are only occasionally present. Elevation and Upland/Wetland Area Ratios As discussed in the methods, S heelar Lake, Mud Lake, and Lake Tulane are all located within the Florida central ridge system or the central highlands. Their mean elevation is 4 1.2 m above sea level. Camel Lake , located in the Florida panhandle is part of the gulf coastal lowlands. Newnans Lake and Lochloosa Lake , however, are found in the central valley. The mea n elevation for Newnans Lake, Lochloosa Lake and Camel Lake is 27.9 m above sea level. Upland/Wetland ratios are higher for the three lakes located in the central highlands ( Lake Tulane =3.55, Mud Lake= 13.12, Sheelar Lake=5.35; Figure 3 6) . The lowest ratio is found around Camel Lake (0.62). Newnans Lake and Lochloosa Lak e have ratio s of 3.42 and 2.60 , respectively. Mud Lake has the highest ratio , despite having the lowest elevation of all six lakes. It s low elevation is partly a consequence of its location within an intra ridge valley (Dollison, 2010) .

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28 Table 3 1. AMS 14 C dates for Newnans and Lochloosa Lake. Site Depth(cm) AMS 14 C Date Cal AMS 14 C Date 2 sigma calibration Newnans 80 113.5 ± 0.3 pMc Newnans 307 7210 ± 30 BP 8010 Cal BP 8040 to 7965 Cal BP Newnans 360 7600 ± 50 BP 8400 Cal BP 8450 to 8340 Cal BP Lochloosa 110 115 1215 ± 35 BP 1140 Cal BP 1265 to 1055 Cal BP Lochloosa 155 160 1520 ± 110 BP 1430 Cal BP 1695 to 1260 Cal BP Lochloosa 270 275 4730 ± 90 BP 5460 Cal BP 5655 to 5290 Cal BP Lochloosa 290 295 4770 ± 100 BP 5495 Cal BP 5720 to 5300 Cal BP Lochloosa 345 350 5575 ± 50 BP 6360 Cal BP 6455 to 6285 Cal BP Lochloosa 400 405 6850 ± 80 BP 7695 Cal BP 7920 to 7570 Cal BP Lochloosa 420 425 6940 ± 35 BP 7765 Cal BP 7850 to 7680 Cal BP Lochloosa 445 450 7365 ± 40 BP 8185 Cal BP 8320 to 8040 Cal BP Lochloosa 500 505 7830 ± 60 BP 8620 Cal BP 8975 to 8450 Cal BP Lochloosa 530 535 8120 ± 70 BP 9070 Cal BP 9290 to 8775 Cal BP * The units pMC stand for percent Modern Carbon, which means that the material had more 14 C than the modern (AD 1950) standard. This extra 14 C is from thermo nuclear bomb testing that enriched the atmosphere since the 1950s. The units yr BP stand for years before present (AD 1950). Figure 3 1. Lake Sediment Age Depth Models. Age Depth Models for A ) Newnans Lake and B ) Lochloosa Lake . The fine black dotted lines reflect 95% confidence intervals. Note that there is less confidence in estimated ages for depths farther fr om the radiocarbon dated sample points.

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29 Figure 3 2. Percent organic matter, carbonate, and non carbonate inorganic content in lake sediments. Sediments for A ) Newnans La ke and B ) Lochloosa Lake were sampled at 10 cm intervals. Figure 3 3. Charcoal concentration versus depth in lake sediment cores. Charcoal particle concentration declined by 99% between depths 290 and 0 cm in the A ) Newnans Lake core and by 99% between 375 and 0 cm in the A ) Lake Lochloosa core .

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30 Figure 3 4. Charcoal ac cumulation rate versus depth. CHAR in A ) Newnans Lake and B ) Lochloosa Lake cores increase during the early Holocene.

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31 Figure 3 5. Relative abundances of Pinus and Quercus pollen and total pollen counts . Pinus relative abundances remain high throughout the entirety of Holocene in both A) Newnans Lake and B ) Lochloosa Lake cores. Blue lines represent a pollen sample. Note that early Holocene sediments were sampled at higher age resolution compared to late Holoce ne sediments.

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32 Figure 3 6. Upland/Wetland Area R atios versus Elevation in six Florida Lakes.

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33 CHAPTER 4 DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS The regional shift from Quercus to Pinus observed in previously studied Florida lakes during the mid dle Holocene is not seen in the Orange Creek Basin. I reject the hypothesis that macroscopic charcoal is greatest during periods when the relative abundance of Quercus Ceratiola ericoides, were found in pollen samples from the charcoal rich depth intervals, it is difficult to infer what type of environment existed during the early Holocene. Pinus spp. and Quercus spp. trees are found in both mesic and xeric environments. The dominant early Holocene pol len grains, Chenopodium spp. and Ambrosia spp. , provide little insight into paleoenvironmental conditions, although both are herbaceous taxa . Amaranthus spp. , however, may be indicative of past conditions because Amaranthus australis , a wetland species , is distributed throughout all of Florida (Dressler et al., 1987). Most of the pollen types found in the charcoal poor depth intervals (Newnans: 7 , 520 to present ; Lochloosa: 7 , 025 to 500 c al yr BP) , such as Liquidambar spp., Carya spp., Ilex spp., and Taxodium spp. are consistent with the natural mesic and wet flatwood environments that surround Newnans Lake and Lochloosa Lake today. The absence of the Quercus to Pinus shift within the Orange Creek Basin may be related to topographic and/or edaphic fac tors. Most of the lakes previously studied by Watts , including Mud Lake, Sheelar Lake, and Lake Tulane , were located in central ridge system (central highlands) , which is dominated by scrub plant communities ( Grimm et al., 1993; Watts , 1969; Watts and Hansen, 1988 ; Watts, 1975 ) . There is a ~ 10 m difference in the mean elevation above sea level between the lakes located in the central highlands versus those in the central valley and gulf coastal lowlands. Lake

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34 Tulane , which has the longest sedi ment record in Florida, and Lake Annie are both located within the Lake Wales Ridge at elevation s of 45 and 36 m above sea level , respectively (Dollison, 2010; Grimm et al., 2006). Mud Lake, located in Ocala National Forest, lies in a depression 15 m above sea level , within an intra ridge valley , and is surrounded by sandy upland scrub (Dollison, 2010) . When sampling for pollen , Watts sought lakes that would provide continuous sediment record s that extended into the Late Wisconsin , enabling study of the Pleistocene flora (Watts, 1969; Watts, 1975) . L akes with shorter sedimentation histories , such as Newnans Lake and Lochloosa Lake, which are surrounded by wetlands , bayheads and mesic flatwood forests tell a tation history. It is possible that n ot all areas in Florida were inhabited by no modern analogue dry oak forests. To determine if there was a topographic explanation for the absence of the Quercus to Pinus shift , i.e. it is a consequence of ation in the central highlands versus the coastal lowlands, u pland / wetland area ratios were determined for the watersheds around the lakes that Wa tts had sampled . This exercise was also motivated by the prevalence of Amaranthus/Chenopodium spp. pollen grains during the early Holocene , as Amaranthus spp . may represent wetland plants . The upland/ wetland area ratio s were higher around lakes within the central ridge system . Nevertheless, the mid dle Holocene Quercus to Pinus shift is seen in Camel Lake. This lake is surrounded by extensive wetlands , lies at low elevation and has the lowest upland/wetland area ratio (Figure 3 6). Depending on climate and water table levels, wetland area may have fluctuated during the mid dle Hol ocene throughout the lowlands. Consequently, my calculated upland/wetland area ratios , which reflect the modern condition, may not b e representative of upland/wetland

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35 area ratios during the mid dle Holocene. I conclude that topography was an important factor in determining the compositio n of Holocene plant communities (upland versus wetland), but the Quercus to Pinus shift is still seen in lakes of the gulf coastal lowland areas. Typically, Quercus spp. and Pinus spp. grains represent 80 90% of the pollen rain and forested regions are us ually dominated by arboreal pollen (Prentice, 1988). Thus, reduced quantity or absence of Quercu s spp. and Pinus spp. pollen in the charcoal rich depths sugg ests low tree biomass around both Newnans Lake and Lochloosa L ake. Low tree cover may have be en a result of increased fire activity and/or a response to lower precipitation and water tables. The dominance of grass and weedy pollen grains also favors the probability of a prairie or savannah environment , as opposed to a forested area, in the Orange Cr eek Basin . Similar to previous studies, little correspondence was found between pollen spectra and macroscopic charcoal ( Higuera et al., 2011; Tinner et al., 2008; Whitlock et al.; 2008 ). As mentioned, this may be a result of the differences in the spati al scales represented by pollen and macroscopic charcoal, and the nonlinear relationship between drought and fuel availability. Furthermore, the Lochloosa and Newnans Lake age depth models have a sampling resolution of 10 30 yr /cm . This means that charcoal peaks in the 1.5 cm 3 sediment samples probably represent multiple fire events (Whitlock and Larsen, 2001). The 1 cm 3 of sediment sampled for pollen also represents an averaged 10 30 yr vegetation history. The temporal resolution may be too coarse to say a nything about fire frequency in Florida. Nevertheless , high charcoal concentrations

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36 in the early Holocene suggest greater fire activity. Fire feedbacks in these pyric ecosystems more than likely maintained low tree cover. Florida is projected to have inc reased fire seasons and droug hts for the coming century (Stocker et al. , 2013; Karl et al., 2009). The Holocene provides an opportunity to look at the future direction of terrestrial systems. Global mean temperatures were about 1.5 2.0ºC warmer than pre industrial time ( AD 1750) , with low latitude temperatures estimated to have been between 0.4 and 1.0ºC higher (Marcott et. al, 2013; Folland et al., 1990). Combined study of pollen and charcoal enables characterization of the multiple stable states in which an ecosystem can exist through time, and allows one to determine the magnitude of disturbances, i.e. critical thresholds, that can push the system from one state to another. Thus, paleoecological studies have the ability to assess the vulnerability o f ecosystems to climate change, evaluate ways to adapt to such forecasted changes, and develop management plans for natural resources. The dle Holocene in this study suggest that a 1 2. 0ºC global temperature increase , coupled with increased seasonality , is enough to push the surrounding vegetation in the Orange Creek Basin into another stability domain , in which fire conditions are favored.

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37 APPENDIX A LOI PERCENTAGES FOR LOCHLOOSA LAKE Table A 1. Lochloosa Lake percentages for LOI parameters with depth and age data. Depth Age %H2O %OM %Carbonate %Non Carbonate Inorganic 50 500 89.7 43.7 2.4 53.9 60 610 92.2 51.6 0.0 48.4 70 720 88.4 45.3 0.0 54.7 80 830 86.0 35.1 1.6 63.3 90 945 89.4 46.6 1.1 52.3 100 1055 88.6 40.8 2.9 56.4 110 1170 88.3 38.4 2.9 58.7 125 1410 91.3 47.8 0.0 52.2 130 1485 89.9 44.8 4.5 50.7 140 1650 84.1 36.9 5.5 57.7 150 1810 85.9 40.1 0.8 59.2 160 2005 87.9 43.9 5.3 50.8 170 2290 87.4 46.2 0.9 53.0 180 2570 89.0 47.0 3.4 49.6 190 2855 87.1 44.6 0.0 55.4 200 3140 88.0 44.5 1.9 53.6 210 3425 90.7 52.4 6.1 41.5 230 3990 84.2 37.1 0.7 62.3 240 4275 89.8 52.5 2.3 45.2 250 4560 86.1 41.8 0.0 58.2 260 4845 89.2 61.1 0.0 38.9 270 5125 89.9 50.0 0.0 50.0 280 5320 82.0 37.0 0.0 63.0 290 5485 61.9 13.4 0.2 86.4 300 5655 89.1 63.1 3.1 33.7 310 5815 89.0 63.9 4.2 31.9 320 5980 88.7 65.3 3.9 30.9 330 6145 89.1 68.7 3.0 28.3 340 6310 89.4 58.0 9.0 33.0 350 6485 88.8 56.1 9.9 34.0 360 6700 88.8 59.5 9.6 30.9 370 6915 88.1 50.4 13.3 36.3 380 7135 80.1 25.1 50.7 24.2

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38 Table A 1. Continued Depth Age %H2O %OM %Carbonate %Non Carbonate Inorganic 390 7360 81.1 30.0 39.2 30.8 400 7575 79.6 25.6 29.0 45.4 410 7715 65.5 17.7 50.3 32.0 420 7820 68.7 19.7 75.8 4.4 430 7945 56.9 17.0 30.7 52.4 440 8085 68.0 23.0 31.3 45.7 450 8225 65.9 15.6 38.9 45.5 460 8335 58.2 18.7 33.6 47.7 470 8450 51.6 15.4 37.9 46.7 480 8565 60.0 13.4 37.6 49.0 495 8735 61.8 9.8 41.0 49.2 500 8795 59.4 10.5 33.7 55.9 510 8925 44.7 10.1 27.3 62.6 520 9065 44.5 9.7 31.3 59.1 530 9205 52.1 8.6 26.7 64.8 *Units for depth and age are centimeters (cm) and ca librated years before present (c al yr BP) respectively.

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39 APPENDIX B LOI PERCENTAGES NEWNANS LAKE Table B 1 . Newnans Lake percentages for LOI parameters with depth and age data. Depth Age %H2O %OM %Carbonate %Non Carbonate Inorganic 0 60 98.5 79.3 0.0 20.7 10 160 97.2 61.2 7.4 31.4 20 385 96.4 58.8 5.6 35.6 30 610 95.3 55.8 5.4 38.8 40 830 84.5 50.0 0.0 50.0 50 1055 93.6 51.8 6.1 42.1 60 1280 91.3 39.2 4.6 56.2 70 1505 88.7 34.3 4.6 61.1 80 1750 88.2 34.1 1.0 65.0 90 2025 88.4 42.0 6.0 52.0 100 2300 87.9 41.4 7.5 51.1 110 2580 89.1 46.6 5.9 47.5 120 2850 89.6 45.4 1.1 53.6 130 3125 84.7 28.6 4.5 66.8 140 3395 84.9 29.7 3.4 67.0 150 3670 89.8 47.4 6.2 46.4 160 3940 89.6 44.0 4.2 51.8 170 4210 77.6 17.6 2.3 80.1 180 4490 77.2 18.1 3.1 78.8 190 4765 87.6 41.0 5.0 54.0 200 5045 77.0 20.8 0.0 79.2 210 5315 88.8 51.9 5.0 43.1 220 5580 89.4 57.4 3.8 38.8 230 5860 88.9 57.4 2.9 39.8 240 6135 82.4 34.3 0.0 65.8 250 6410 89.2 58.4 5.7 35.9 260 6685 86.6 36.5 3.1 60.4 270 6965 89.8 56.3 5.0 38.8 280 7250 90.3 55.3 5.8 38.9 290 7525 89.7 54.4 6.8 38.9 300 7805 90.0 53.5 6.3 40.3 310 8075 82.1 46.8 8.1 45.1 320 8185 75.7 39.6 5.5 55.0 330 8290 75.8 38.1 8.0 53.9 340 8400 79.7 31.1 8.2 60.6

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40 Table B 1 . Continued Depth Age %H2O %OM %Carbonate %Non Carbonate Inorganic 350 8505 75.7 30.8 8.2 61.0 360 8610 69.6 27.1 7.4 65.5 370 8660 62.1 22.1 7.7 70.2 380 8765 51.3 12.8 7.1 80.1 390 8870 38.4 7.4 6.0 86.6 *Units for depth and age are centimeters (cm) and ca librated years before present (c al yr BP) respectively.

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41 APPENDIX C RHO AND CHARCOAL COUNTS IN LOCHLOOSA LAKE Table C 1. Charcoal concentration, deposition rate, rho with in sampled depths in Lochloosa Lake. Depth (cm) Rho (g dry/cm 3 ) Charcoal/cm 3 Deposition Rate(yr/cm) 50 0.0853 2 10.96 60 0.0601 0 11.04 70 0.0863 0 11.16 80 0.0994 1.33 11.46 90 0.0700 0.67 11.44 100 0.0723 0 11.44 110 0.0707 1.33 15.14 125 0.0484 2 15.48 130 0.0551 5.33 16.64 140 0.0846 1.33 16.12 150 0.0720 0.67 16.18 160 0.0589 1.33 28.18 170 0.0594 1.33 27.92 180 0.0499 0.67 28.26 190 0.0566 0 28.42 200 0.0510 0 28.5 210 0.0383 1.33 28.08 230 0.0625 1.33 28.28 240 0.0389 0.67 29.1 250 0.0524 1.33 29.04 260 0.0394 2 27.36 270 0.0364 3.33 21.84 280 0.0646 0.67 17.02 290 0.1404 4 16.04 300 0.0372 1.33 16.28 310 0.0371 0.67 16.36 320 0.0377 1.33 16.84 330 0.0356 0 15.78 340 0.0343 0 18.14 350 0.0360 0 21.96 360 0.0357 2.67 21 370 0.0376 3.33 21.9 380 0.0633 89.33 21.76 390 0.0595 168.67 21.54

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42 Table C 1. Continue d Depth (cm) Rho (g dry/cm 3 ) Charcoal/cm 3 Deposition Rate(yr/cm) 410 0.1105 80 10.88 420 0.0992 74.67 11.16 430 0.1385 553.33 13.62 440 0.1000 160 14.38 450 0.1066 193.33 11.34 460 0.1317 90 11.2 470 0.1541 71.33 11.6 480 0.1250 111.33 11.2 495 0.1183 37.33 11.62 500 0.1262 27.33 11.52 510 0.1762 8 14.34 520 0.1762 1.33 14.14 530 0.1496 31.33 1

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43 APPENDIX D RHO AND CHARCOAL COUNTS IN NEWNANS LAKE Table D 1. Charcoal concentration, deposition rate, rho within sampled depths in Newnans Lake. Depth (cm) Rho (g dry/cm 3 ) Charcoal/cm 3 Deposition Rate(yr/cm) 0 0.0151 0 22.1 10 0.0284 0 23.2 20 0.0364 0.67 21.6 30 0.0477 0 23.2 40 0.1682 0 23.1 50 0.0667 0.67 21.7 60 0.0910 1.33 22.3 70 0.1209 0 22.7 80 0.1259 0.67 26.1 90 0.1235 1.33 27.5 100 0.1292 2 27.8 110 0.1159 1.33 27.2 120 0.1105 1.33 27.9 130 0.1667 0.67 26.6 140 0.1653 0.67 26.6 150 0.1074 0.67 26.2 160 0.1098 0 27.8 170 0.2573 0 27.5 180 0.2626 2 28 190 0.1334 0 27.8 200 0.2644 0.67 26.3 210 0.1193 0.67 26.6 220 0.1114 0.67 27.5 230 0.1176 1.33 27.2 240 0.1943 1.33 27.3 250 0.1136 7.33 27.9 260 0.1445 4 28.9 270 0.1078 1.33 27.7 280 0.1021 2 27.1 290 0.1082 3.33 26.9 300 0.1052 3.33 26 310 0.1973 39.33 12.9 320 0.2798 51.33 10.5 330 0.2785 28.67 10.8 340 0.2280 58 10.8

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44 Table D 1. Continued Depth (cm) Rho (g dry/cm 3 ) Charcoal/cm 3 Deposition Rate(yr /cm) 350 0.2806 5.33 10.7 360 0.3666 41.33 10.4 370 0.4830 27.33 10.8 380 0.6789 37.33 10.4

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45 A PPENDIX E OAK AND PINE COUNTS IN LOCHLOOSA LAKE Table E 1. Relative abundances of Pinus and Quercus along and total pollen counts in Lochloosa Lake. Depth (cm) Age (c al yr BP) % Pinus % Quercus Pinus Counts Quercus Counts Total Counts 50 500 81.4 18.6 407 93 500 90 945 85.0 15.0 425 75 500 130 1485 85.6 14.4 428 72 500 170 2290 83.4 16.6 417 83 500 210 3425 80.0 20.0 400 100 500 250 4560 73.0 27.0 365 135 500 290 5485 70.6 29.4 353 147 500 330 6145 73.6 26.4 368 132 500 375 7025 62.5 37.6 301 181 482 385 7245 61.9 38.1 148 91 239 390 7360 51.9 48.2 28 26 54 395 7465 69.0 31.0 136 61 197 400 7575 67.4 32.6 62 30 92 405 7665 64.6 35.4 62 34 96 425 7880 58.8 41.2 10 7 17 430 7945 66.4 33.6 142 72 214 435 8015 79.8 20.2 71 18 89 440 8085 75.4 24.6 135 44 179 445 8155 73.1 26.9 128 47 175 450 8225 81.9 18.1 68 15 83 455 8280 75.5 24.5 151 49 200 475 8510 80.0 20.0 60 15 75 480 8565 74.2 25.8 72 25 97

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46 Table E 1. Continued Depth (cm) Age (cal yr BP) % Pinus % Quercus Pinus Counts Quercus Counts Total Counts 490 8680 70.2 29.8 73 31 104 510 8925 83.3 16.7 5 1 6 520 9065 75.0 25.0 6 2 8 525 9135 50.0 50.0 2 2 4 535 9205 60.0 40.0 3 2 5

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47 APPENDIX F OAK AND PINE COUNTS IN NEWNANS LAKE Table F 1 . Relative abundances of Pinus and Quercus along and total pollen counts in Newnans Lake . Depth (cm) Age (c al yr BP) % Pinus % Quercus Pinus Counts Quercus Counts Total Counts 0 60 65.2 34.9 86 46 132 120 2850 71.4 28.6 357 143 500 160 3940 69.8 30.2 247 107 354 200 5045 57.6 42.4 288 212 500 240 6135 65.5 34.5 207 109 316 280 7250 51.8 48.2 175 163 338 294 7635 55.0 45.0 187 153 340 295 7660 53.3 46.7 56 49 105 296 7690 59.3 40.7 70 48 118 301 7830 55.3 44.7 94 76 170 302 7855 60.0 40.0 45 30 75 303 7885 65.9 34.1 226 117 343 309 8045 71.3 28.7 189 76 265 310 8075 74.9 25.1 317 106 423 311 8085 65.1 34.9 239 128 367 315 8135 63.4 36.6 284 164 448 319 8175 64.4 35.6 56 31 87 320 8185 60.8 39.2 127 82 209 321 8200 70.5 29.5 165 69 234 324 8230 71.8 28.2 155 61 216 335 8345 71.9 28.1 120 47 167 336 8355 69.1 30.9 103 46 149 337 8365 81.5 18.5 119 27 146

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48 Table F 1. Continued Depth (cm) Age (cal yr BP) % Pinus % Quercus Pinus Counts Quercus Counts Total Counts 347 8470 70.3 29.7 45 19 64 349 8495 74.4 25.6 64 22 86 350 8505 70.3 29.7 83 35 118 368 8640 68.6 31.4 24 11 35 374 8705 78.4 21.6 40 11 51 375 8715 86.1 13.9 31 5 36 378 8745 90.5 9.5 38 4 42

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49 APPENDIX G POLLEN TYPES FOUND IN LOCHLOOSA LAKE Table G 1. List of pollen types found within each of the sampled depths in the Lochloosa L ake core. Depth Pollen Types (besides Quercus and Pinus ) ), algae, and fungal spores 50 Botryococcus, Carya, Liquidambar, Poaceae, Taxodium , Ulmus 130 Acer(1), Botryococcus, Carya, Cyperaceae, Poaceae, Taxodium 170 Chenopodium(1), Cyperaceae, Poaceae, Taxodium 210 Botryococcus, Chenopodium , Cyperaceae, Poaceae, Taxodium 250 Botryococcus, Carpinus, Poaceae, Taxodium 290 Botryococcus, Carya, Cyperaceae 330 Acer(1), Chenopodium, Poaceae 375 Asteraceae, Chenopodium, fungal spore, Nymphaea 385 Asteraceae(1), Chenopodium, fungal spore 390 Asteraceae (1), Chenopodium, fungal spore, Salix 395 Artemisia, Chenopodium 400 Botryococcus, Chenopodium, fungal spore 405 Ambrosia, Chenopodium, Cyperaceae, fungal spore 425 Ambrosia, Chenopodium, fungal spores, Salix(1) 430 Chenopodium, Ericaceae(1), fungal spore 435 Botryococcus, fungal spores, Poacae 440 Ambrosia, Chenopodium 445 Botryococcus, Chenopodium, Cyperaceae, Taxodium (2), 450 Botryococcus, fungal spores 455 Ambrosia, Chenopodium, Cyperaceae, fungal spores 470 Botryococcus, Chenopodium 475 Botryococcus, Chenopodium, Nymphaea 480 Botryococcus, Chenopodium, fungal spores 485 Botryococcus, Chenopodium, fungal spores 490 Chenopodium, Cyperaceae, fungal spores 510 Chenopodium, Poaceae 520 Chenopodium, Cyperaceae 525 Chenopodium 535 Chenopodium, Cyperaceae, Sponge spicules

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50 APPENDIX H POLLEN TYPES FOUND IN NEWNANS LAKE Table H 1. List pollen types found in each of the sampled depths in the Newnans Lake cores. Depth Pollen types (besides Quercus and Pinus ) , algae, and fungal spores 0 Acer, Li quidambar 120 Acer, L iquidambar 160 Botryococcus, C arya, C yperaceae , Myrica 200 Botryococcus, C arya, Cyperaceae, M yrica, T axodium , Ulmus 240 Acer, Asteraceae, Artemisia B otryococcus, Chenopodium, fungal spore, L iquidambar, S alix, 280 Acer(1), Chenopodium, C yperaceae, 294 Chenopodium, fungal spore 295 P ediastru m 296 Chenopodium, C yperaceae 301 Ambrosia, C henopodium, Pediastrum 302 Chenopodium, P ediastrum 303 Ambrosia, C henopodium, Cyperaceae, fungal spore 309 Chenopodium, Cyperaceae, fungal spores 310 Ambrosia, C henopodium, fungal spore, Pteridophyte 311 Acer(1), Ambrosia, C henopodium, Cyperaceae, Ulmus (1) 315 Ambrosia, Carpinus (1), Chenopodium, Cyperaceae 319 Chenopodium, C yperaceae 320 C henopodium, fungal spore , Nymphaea 321 Ambrosia, Chenopodium, N uphar , 324 Botryococcus, Chenopodium, C yperaceae, fungal spore 335 Chenopodium, Cyperaceae, fungal spore 336 Ambrosia, Chenopodium, C yperaceae, fungal spores , N ymphae a 337 Ambrosia, C henopodium, Cyperaceae, Ericaceae (1), fun gal spore, Poaceae, P teridophyte, T axodium (1) 347 Chenopodium, Cyperaceae, fungal spore, N ymphae a 349 Ambrosia, Chenopodium, Cyperaceae, fungal spore, Pediastrum, T axodium 350 P oaceae, fungal spore 368 Ambrosia, Chenopodium 374 Chenopodium, Cyperaceae, fungal spore, N ymphae a 375 C henopodium 378 Chenopodium, Cyperaceae, Nymphaea

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53 Karl, T.R., Melillo, J.M., Peterson, T.C., 2009. Global climate change impacts in the United States. Global climate change im pacts in the United States, pp. 1 188. Lippincott, C.L., 2011. Orange Creek B asin Su rface Water Improvement and Management Plan St. Johns River Water Management District, pp. 1 146. Marcott, S.A., Shakun, J.D., Clark, P.U., Mix, A.C., 2013. A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years. Science 339, 1198 12 01. Myers, R.L., Ewel, J.J., 1990. Ecosystems of Florida. University of Central Florida Press Orlando. Prentice, C., 1988. Records of vegetation in time and space: the principles of pollen analysis, Vegetation history. Springer, pp. 17 42. Prentice, I., We bb, T., 1986. Pollen percentages, tree abundances and the Fagerlind effect. Journal of Quaternary Science 1, 35 43. R Development Core Team, 2013. A language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Comput ing. URL http://www.R project.org . Reimer, P.J., Bard, E., Bayliss, A., Beck, J.W., Blackwell, P.G., Bronk Ramsey, C., Buck, C.E., Cheng, H., Edwards, R.L., Friedrich, M., 2013. IntCal13 and Marine13 radiocarbon age calibration curves 0 50,000 years cal BP. Schimel, D.S., 1995. Terrestrial ecosystems and the carbon cycle. Global change biology 1, 77 91. St. Johns Water Management District, 2010. Orange Creek Restoration Area Land Management Plan. St. Johns R iver Water Management District , Marion County, FL, pp. 1 77. St. Johns Water Management District, 2013. Newnans Lake Conservation Area Land Management Plant . St. Johns R iver Water Management District , Alachua County, FL, pp. 1 22. Staver, A.C., Archibald, S., L evin, S.A., 2011. The Global Extent and Determinants of Savanna and Forest as Alternative Biome States. Science 334, 230 232. Stocker, T., Qin, D., Plattner, G., Tignor, M., Allen, S., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., Midgley, P., 2013. IPCC, 20 13: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge Univ Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

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54 Tinner, W., Bigler, C., Gedye, S., Gregory Eaves, I., Jones, R.T., Kaltenrieder, P., Krahenbuehl, U., Hu, F.S., 2008. A 700 year paleoecological record of boreal ecosystem responses to climatic variation from Alaska. Ecology 89, 729 743. Traverse, A., 2007. Paleopalynology, 2nd Edition. Springer , Dordrecht, The Netherlands . Van Lear, D.H., Carroll, W.D., Kapeluck, P.R., Johnson, R., 2005. History and restoration.of the longleaf pine grassland ecosystem: Implications for species at risk. Forest Ecology and Management 211, 150 165. Watts, W.A., 1969. A pollen diagram from Mud Lake Marion county north central Florida . Geological Societ y of America Bulletin 80, 631 642 . Watts, W.A., 1975. A late Quaternary record of vegetation from Lake Annie, south central Florida. Geology 3, 344 346. Watts, W.A., 1980. L ate quaternary vegetation history of the southeastern usa . Johnston, R. F. (Ed.). Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, Vol. 11. Xi+487p. Annual Reviews Inc.: Palo Alto, Calif., USA. Illus, pp. 387 410. Watts, W.A., Hansen, B.C.S., 1988. E nvironments of florida usa in the late Wisconsin and Holocene. Purdy, B. a. (Ed.). Wet Site Archaeology; International Conference Held in Gainesville, Florida, USA, December 12 14, 1986. Xiii+338p. Telford Press: Caldwell New Jersey, USA. I llus. Maps, 307 324. Watts, W.A., Hansen, B.C.S., Grimm, E.C., 1992. Camel Lake a 40000 yr record of vegetational and forest history from northwest Florida . Ecology 73, 1056 1066. Whitlock, C., Higuera, P.E., McWethy, D.B., Briles, C.E., 2010. Paleoecolo gical perspectives on fire ecology: revisiting the fire regime concept. The Open Ecology Journal 3, 6 23. Whitlock, C., Larsen, C., 2001. Charcoal as a fire proxy. Tracking environmental change using lake sediments. Volume 3: Terrestrial, algal, and silice ous indicators, 75 97. Whitlock, C., Marlon, J., Briles, C., Brunelle, A., Long, C., Bartlein, P., 2008. Long term relations among fire, fuel, and climate in the north western US based on lake sediment studies. International Journal of Wildland Fire 17, 72 83.

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55 BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH Kalindhi Larios earned her Bachelor of Science degree in environmental s cience from the University of Florida in 2012. Later i n 2012, she jo ined the the School of Natural Resources and Environment Science at the University of Florida . Mrs. Larios has been the recipient of numerous awards including the William C. and Bertha M. Cornett Fellowship and the Robert Ragland Research Award. Additionally from 2012 2014, she was a graduate scholar for the Soc iety of Hispanic Engineers. Throughout her college career, Mrs. Larios has worked with the Florida Museum of Natural History as an assistant for both the Paleobotany and Vertebrate Paleontology department s . She has also worked as a plant technician for the National Ecological Aside from academics, Mrs. Larios dedicates her time to volunteering and mentoring minority students in various organizations, including the English Language Institute and the U niversity of F lorida D epartment of Multicultural and Diversity Affairs.