1 ECONOMIC GROWTH IN PENSACOLA FL A GIS BASED ASSESSME NT OF REDEVELO PMENT POLICY, 1996 2010 By TANNER LUKE MARTIN A THESIS PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQU IREMENTS FOR TH E DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS IN URBAN AND REGIONAL PLANNING UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 2011
2 2011 Tanner Luke Martin
3 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to thank my parents for supporting me through my academic career and allowing me the freedo m to pursue the goa ls that I have set for myself. I need to thank Alyssa Maki, my fianc e, for supporting me when I needed her support the most. She has been my best friend and companio n. Last, but not least I would like to thank God for giving me the str ength and patienc e for allowing me to persevere through all aspects of lif e
4 TABLE OF CONTENTS page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ................................ ................................ ................................ .. 3 LIST OF TABLES ................................ ................................ ................................ ............ 6 LIST OF FIGURES ................................ ................................ ................................ .......... 7 ABSTRACT ................................ ................................ ................................ ..................... 8 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION ................................ ................................ ................................ .... 10 Justification of Thesis ................................ ................................ .............................. 10 Research Question ................................ ................................ ................................ 11 2 LITERATURE REVIEW ................................ ................................ .......................... 13 Theories of Economic Development and Assessment ................................ ............ 13 Theories of Economic Development ................................ ................................ ....... 14 Economic Base Theory ................................ ................................ .................... 16 Central Place Theory ................................ ................................ ........................ 18 New Market Theory ................................ ................................ .......................... 19 Creative Destruction Theory ................................ ................................ ............. 20 Endogenous Growth Theory ................................ ................................ ............. 21 Attraction Theory ................................ ................................ .............................. 22 Agglomeration Theory ................................ ................................ ...................... 23 Assessment of Economic Development ................................ ................................ .. 24 Property Values as an Indicator for Econom ic Development ................................ .. 32 3 REDEVELOPMENT IN PENSACOLA, FL ................................ .............................. 35 Background Information and Data on Pensacola, FL ................................ ............. 35 State of Florida Community Redevelopment Agencies ................................ ........... 40 ................................ ....... 43 ... 45 Pensacola Waterfront Development Plan ................................ ......................... 54 Belmont/Devilliers Neighborhood Land Use Plan ................................ ............. 56 Pensacola Historic District Master Plan ................................ ............................ 57 4 RESEARCH DESIGN AND RESULTS ................................ ................................ ... 60 Methodology ................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 62 Data Limitations ................................ ................................ ................................ ...... 64 Results ................................ ................................ ................................ .................... 67
5 5 CONCLUSION ................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 86 Implications for Public Policy ................................ ................................ .................. 87 Further Research ................................ ................................ ................................ .... 88 APPENDIX Arcmap TM methods ................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 89 LIST OF REFERENCES ................................ ................................ ............................... 91 BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH ................................ ................................ ............................ 94
6 LIST OF TABLES Table page 4 1 Mean market property values, 1996 2010. ................................ ...................... 72 4 2 Mean taxable property values, 1996 2010. ................................ ..................... 73
7 LIST OF FIGURES Figure page 4 1 Mean market property values, 1996 2010. ................................ ...................... 74 4 2 Mean taxable property values, 1996 2010. ................................ ...................... 75 4 3 Map of market property values, 1997. ................................ ................................ 76 4 4 Map of market property values, 2001. ................................ ................................ 77 4 5 Map of market property values, 2005. ................................ ................................ 78 4 6 Map of market property values, 2009. ................................ ................................ 79 4 7 Map of taxable property values, 1997. ................................ ................................ 80 4 8 Map of taxable property values, 2001. ................................ ................................ 81 4 9 Map of taxable property values, 2005. ................................ ................................ 82 4 10 Map of taxable property values, 2009. ................................ ................................ 83 4 11 Ratio comparison of mean market property values. ................................ ........... 84 4 12 Ratio compa rison of mean taxable property values. ................................ ........... 84 4 13 Percent change in mean market property values. ................................ .............. 85 4 14 Percent change in mean taxable property values. ................................ .............. 85
8 A bstract of Thesis Presented to the Graduate School of the University of Florida in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for th e Degree of Master of Arts in Urb an and Regional Planning ECONOMIC GROWTH IN P ENS ACOLA, FL A GIS BASED ASSESSME NT OF REDEVELOPMENT POLICY 1996 2010 By Tanner Luke Martin December 2011 Chair: Andres Blanco Major: Urban and Regional Planning Pensacola, FL has allocated significant resources towards revitalizing the urban core as evidenced by the adoption of multiple redevelopment plans via the Community Redevelopment Agency since the late 1980s. As observed by the author during his residency in Pensacola from 2005 2008, the downtow n area has significantly improved its aesthetics and diversity of businesses in an effort to stimulate economic activity by attracting both residents and visitors. This research attempts to quantify economic growth within the Community Redevelopment Area t hat may have been affected by redevelopment plans and policies. This research describes theories of economic development and growth that are pertinent to the mission and objectives of the city Redevelopment Agency (CPCRA). Next, t he research offers a variety of indicators in which to assess economic development of which property value data collected at the parcel level for the entirety of Escambia County will be utilized Then, the research summarizes the major redevelopmen t plans as adopted by the CPCRA and provides socio economic information to familiarize the reader with Pensacola and its current
9 business climate Finally, the research analyzes the property value data and offers suggestions for public policy and future research.
10 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION Cities serve as the focal point for businesses and residents to participate in commer ce within a region or nation. The unique characteristics of a city its government, its businesses and its residents complement each other to creat e the environme nt that allows each the opportunity to either succeed or fail. In nearly every city region or nation economic development is a vital field of urban and regional planning that strives to facilitate a successful business climate. In rece nt ye ars, redevelopment policy has been a key tool that attempt s to revitalize failing and/or failed cities. Pr oper economic development strategies and t houghtful redevelopment plans may serve as the crux that allows businesses to grow and cities to flourish. Justification of Thesis The overarching goal of this thesis is to expand the set of tools that urban and regional planners use to analyze the success of impl emented redevelopment policies. The first goal of this research is to provide the theoretical fram ework for economic growth and deve lopment with regards to the goals of Community Redevelopment Agencies in the state of Florida The second goal of this research is to summarize current redevelopment strate gies in use by the city of Pensacola. The third go al of this research is to provide a n assessment tool using a Geographic I nformation S ystem (GIS) that practicing planners can use to assess the impact (i.e., economic growth) of redevelopment plan s on a local area in relation to the surrounding region T he fourth goal is to assess economic growth that may have been influenced by redevelopment plans and policies adopted by the city ommunity Redevelopment Agency (CPCRA) It is hoped that t his research may serve as a foundation for
11 implementi ng a GIS based policy analysis of redevelopmen t plans and/or policies adopted by municipal ities across the s tate of Florida and also serve as a baseline for future assessment of economic impacts of CPCRA plans and policies on the Pensacola area. Persons th at may find this research of interest are those in academia that focus on economic development and /or utilize GIS in order to assess the economic vitality of a local area or region Practicing planne rs and decision makers may find this research to be of i n terest if they wish to add another tool to the ir economic development toolbox that can assist in assess ing the economic impacts of redevelo pment policy Students of geography, public policy, and urban planning may find this research to be of interest becau se it provides a detailed step by step method ology for analyzing property value data. Students may also find this research interesting because it rel ates ec onomic development theory to real world applications of redevelopment policy and how it may impact e conomic growth at the local level. Research Question As this research is primarily an analysis of various plans and policies adopted by the city Community Redevelopment Agency (CPCRA) the research question focuses on economic growth within the Community Redevelopment Area (CRA) compared to adjacent political boundaries The plans and policies adopted by the CPCRA addressed in this res earch are intended to revitalize the urban core by encouraging new development, redevelopment of blighted are as, increasing livability and walkability, improving aesthetics of public and private space, improving quality of life for area residents, and ultimately increasing tax revenue by increasing property values and opportunities for applying sales tax The res earch questio n is: have th e
12 various plans and policies adopted by the CPCRA effectively encouraged re development within the CRA ? In order to operationalize the research question, the followin g question needs to be answered: h ave property values within the CRA increased more significantly (or remained more stable) than property values outside the CR A ? In order to address the research question, the research includes a 15 year time series (1996 2010) and will compa re mean property values (economic indicator ) within the CRA to mean city wide property values an d mean c ounty wide property values. If mean property values within the CRA have increased more significantly (or remained more stable) tha n property values outside the CRA, the n the plan may have been ef fective. The relations hip between economic development, redevelopment, and property values will be discussed in C hapter 2
13 CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW Theories of Economic Development and Assessment Economic development is comprised of an entire toolbox u tilized by urban planners to sp ur economic growth, improve quality o f life for the public at large and ach tool has a specific purpose but the toolbox as a whole is designed to attract new firms, grow existing busin esses, add to the skilled labor pool, promote local trade and improve overall business climate Many tools exist within t he economic development toolbox ranging from tax abatements and credits to grants and loans to public policies and strategies to infra structure impr ovement and redevelopment plans Some of these tools such as tax credits and federal grants have been in use f or hundreds of years while some tools, such as redevelopment plans, ar e still relatively young D ue to recent recessions, limited i ncome budget cuts and misuse of public funds by a few po litical leaders, the public has heightened its awareness of how tax dollars are spent. As a result, tools that assess effectiveness of implemented economic development strategies have become a focus of urban planners and decision makers. Assessment, or retrospective policy analysis, plays a pivotal role in determini ng whether or not to keep pursuing a particular economic development policy or redevelopment plan A well established ind icator for asse ssing impacts of economic development plan s and/ or policies is to analyze property values in and arou nd an area that has adopted such plans and/or policies A time series using historical d ata must be incorporated into the assessment in
14 order to establish a baseline of property values to judg e whether or not the policy has been successful since its adoption. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) have also added to the value of th ese assessmen ts by allowing urban planner s to isolate specific boundaries (political or geograp hic) input appropriate data, and spatially analyze a policy or plan that was i ntended for a local finite area and compare it to the surroundin g region. Theories of Economic Development Econ omic development policy can be manifested in a wide array of mediums. For incorporated into a master plan, serve as the mission for a Chamber of Com merce, or be the basis for the foundation of a Community Redevelopment Agency. In order to understand how government intervention of economic development is impleme nted via plan s and policies one must first be familiar with th eories of economic development Economic development must not be confused with economic growth Economic growth is primarily fueled by markets within the economy, businesses experiencing the fluctuations of the business life cycle and the natural waves of supply and demand. If the af orementioned processes exhibit positive gains, economic growth is realized. If the same processes exhibit negative gains, economic recession has occurred. Econo mic growth can be defined as a positive change in the production of goods and services within an economy over a period of time. Economic growth is used most often in the connotation of national economies and is usually measured by Gross Domestic P roduct (GDP). H owever, for the purpose of this research economic grow th is used in relation to
15 the local scale and can be measured by a variety of indicators as discussed in the In his 1961 book titled Theories of Economic Growth and Development, Irma elopment. Adelman deduced from Schumpeter different classes of events: 1) it can arise from the introduction of a new commodity, 2) it can be the resul t of a new method of production, 3) it can be t he consequence of the opening up of a new market, 4) it can be due to the conquest of a new so urce of supply or raw materials, or 5) it can emerge because of a change in the organi zation of any industry. All these cases involve a different employment of th e production factors, and Given this insight, economic development policy opportunity for success and supp ort their ability to innovat e. The definition for economic development is ambiguous because no clear standardization for the term seems to be available. I n its most basic form, economic development is intended to spur economic activity in the pursuit of incr easing quality of life. F or example, Fitzgerald and Green (2002 pg. 3 ) define economic development as and physical infrastructure development based on the principles of equity and sustainability T he America n Economic Development Council defines economic development (Mathur, 1999).
16 In the context of local economic development, e conomic development may be thought of as the suc cessful intervention of government policies and/or plans to stimulate economic growth. However, this is not to say that economic development cannot happen wi thout government intervention on the free market. Rather, the author implies that economic developm ent policy may serve as a catalyst for economic growth. This section is comprised of seven major theories in economic development and growth that are pertinent to the focus of this research Only theories in economic development and growth that are relevan t to the mission of Community Redevelopment Agencies will be discussed, as this research is primarily a policy analysis of economic growth influenced by the city ommunity R edevelopment A gency Further, the author finds that existing redevel opment plans do not adequately reference theories o f economic development and has provided the following theories to establish a theoretical framework which provides a basis for the formulation and design of plans adopted by the city ty Redevelopment Agency. The following economic development theories will be discussed : 1) Economic Base theory, 2 ) Central Place theory 3 ) New Market theory, 4 ) Creative Destruction theory, 5 ) Endogenous Growth theory, 6) Attraction theory and 7) A gglome ration theory Economic Base Theory The economic base theory was first postulated by Robert Murray Haig in the 1920s (Haig 19 27 ) and has since received much attention from aca demia and published a number of journal articles during the 1940s and 1950s expanding the theory into how it is perceived today. As mentioned by Morgan Thomas (1964), the economic base theory
17 has also been referred to as the export base theory as well as the basic n on basic concept. According to Hoyt (1941), t he basis of the theory considers two fundamental types of firms, bas e firms and service activity firms. Base firms export their goods or services to other entities located outside the base economy resulting in a net income of revenue for the local economic market In other words a firm that produces a product that will be exported outside the local economy can be considered a base firm. A service activity firm markets and sells its goods or servic es to residents, households and other firm s located wi thin its own local economic market Service activity firms also, and more importantly, supply raw or unfinished goods to the base firms. According to Hoyt, b ase firms are l economic market and are considered to be the engine for economic growth within this theory. To apply the theory to policy analysis, Hoyt (1941) needed to quantify the base classified base firms into seven cate gories, manufac turing trade and finance, extractio n, tourism, political capitals, edu cation and transportation in order to create a grading scale that would illustrate what constituted the majority of a base economy. He then assigned a value, ranging fro m 1 to 5, to each category based on employment history so that he could forecast future employment This grading scale is the basis of the modern Location Quotient analysis and provides a reasonable overview for urban planners to draft econ omic development policy to better serve the major industries within his/her local economy Broad planning policies that do not provide specific details for each industry sector may not yield effective results to support the unique business climate of each industry
18 Cen tral P lace Theory Central place theory is based on the notion that a single urban core serves as the primary geographic location in which s pecialized services are located. Fir ms tend to concentrate near crossroads of transportation, supplies (raw materials and financial services), human capital ( laborers ), and markets in order to minimize cost and maximize revenue. Concentration or clustering of various dependent industries allows firms to benefit from economies of scale. Due to clustering of similar and/or dependent industries within the urban core transactions can be made much quicker, increasing productivity and driving economic growth. Clustering also encourages new firms to locate within the urban core so they may benefit from economies of scale, furthe r increasing demand for land and ultimately raising property values. The type s of firms that originally concentrate d in the urban core until approximately the 1950s were dominated by industrial processing, manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, and tr ansportation providers These firms clustered in the urban c ore because they were near r esidential areas (laborers), markets and transportation routes that could handle heavy cargo. The development of the streetcar, automobile and the eventual expansion of highways allowed laborers to move out of the congested and polluted, urban core to the fringe of the city After labo rers moved land use patterns within the urban core began to change due to the relocation of manufacturing based fi rms and subsequent i nfiltration of service based firms. Today, office space (primarily occ ), headquarters of large corporations, financial institutions, government offices, high end retail, restaurants and middle to upper class housing comp rise the dominant land uses located within the urban core.
19 Closely a ssociated with this theory is the idea that land values are higher within the urban core due to increased demand for land as explained by the bid rent theory. The bid rent theory suggests tha t land will be sold (or rent ed) to the bidder that can put land to the highest and best use which, due to competition, is usually lo cated close to the urban core. Additionally t he highest and best use of land i s usually dictated by the bidder with the mos t financial resources and/or political associations (i.e., financial institutions, governments, large corporations, etc.). Also r etail stores restaurants and hotels can typically be found in higher concentrations close to the urban core since they are c onsidered to be service activity firms Land patterns change as distance from the urban core increases, as also suggested by the bid rent theory. Moving away from the urban core manufacturing and low income housing become s dominant T hen middle class si ngle family residential areas ( suburbia) are further from the urban core Last, agricultural land and wilderness areas are furthest from the urban core Also land values typically diminish as distance from the urban core increases. New Market Theory The N ew Market theory is an updated elaboration and combination of the Economic Base theory an d Central Place theory which resulted from the realization that deteriorating urban core neighborhoods have great potential for redevelopment. The theory suggests tha t blighted areas should be redeveloped an d put to a higher and better use resulting in opportunity to expand the economic growth potential within the urban core. According to Blakely and Bradshaw (2002), in order to attract the c aliber of firms needed to effectively revitalize inner
20 subsidy to get started. dshaw (2002), James Carr notes that economic development of these areas requires thoughtful consideration in the design generated by these assets back into the communities from which they originated so that these resources can stimulate more new economic activity in the community, from new businesses a shared by a The suggestion is that when revenue is captured by firms in the local economy, as much of that revenue as possible should circulate withi n, as opposed to leaking out of the local economy. This idea serves as the premise for multipl ier effects, which are changes in endogenous variables that have been influenced by exogenous variables. In other words, when local goods and services are consum ed by non local residents, a net influx of revenue is encumbered by the local economy, and when local laborers spend money on local goods, a certain percentage of money will remain within the local economy. Creative Destruction Theory T he was originated by Karl Marx in his 1848 book The Communist Manifesto However, the Creative Destruction theory in modern economic terms, is ac credited to Joseph Sc humpeter when he described the theory in his 1942 book Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy The theory is premised around the idea that economic growth is fueled by entrepreneurs that out compete existing businesses due to their use of new technologies and innovations. function of entrepreneurs is to refor m or revolutionize the pattern of production by exploiting an invention or, more generally, an untried technological possibility for
21 T he business life cycle is a major compon ent of this theory and suggests that the demise of old firms and creation of new firms is a natural and necessary part of economic growth. the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new production or transportation, the new markets, the new form of industrial organization Creative Destruction as an evolutionary proces incessantly revolutionizes the economic structure from within incessantly destroying the Endogenous Growth Theory The Endogenous G rowth theory similar to the Creati ve Destruction theory, implies that economic growth comes from within the economy, whether discussing local, regional, national or global scales. T his research focuses on local economic development and wi ll focus on the implications related to the local l evel. Endogenous economic growth can manifest itself in a number of ways, including a discover y of local raw resources, increase in human capital through training by local education institutions capital accrued by locall y owned firms, government policy t hat provides a business friendly environment and econ omic development policy that supports collaboration and innovation However, Schumpeter cautions that entrepreneurs may get lazy due to too many government subsidies which could result in a significant reduction in innovation It is believed that by these endogenous means that economic growth can occur within the local economy without the influence of exogenous resources and externalities
22 Attraction Theory Attraction theory consists of a variety of methods in which to attract people, firms and industries to a particular region or locality. The major theme o f the Attraction theory is to promote existi ng natural resources, location outstanding characteristics, and various incentive methods to attract a more diverse entrepreneurial demographic. In order to do so, a locality must partake in community promotion and market itself to businesses and new approach in attraction is the change in emphasis from attracting factories to attracting entrepreneurial populations, particularly certain socio economic groups, to a One of the socio economic groups that is most sought after is the Creative Class, as desc ribed by Richard Florida in his 2002 book The Rise of the Creative Class Florida divides the Creative Class into two categories, the Super Creative core and university pro fessors, poets and novelists, artists, entertainers, actors, designers and architects, as well as the thought leadership of modern society: nonfiction writers, editors, cultural figures, think tank researchers, analysts and other opinion ( Florida, 2 002 ). He further defines and are inherent characteristics of the Super Creative Core ( Florida, 2002 ). Creative Professionals include work in a wide range of knowledge intensive industries such as high tech sectors, ( Florida, 2
23 Florida, 2002). The Creative Class as a whole typically receives more compensati on for their work and requires an extensive framework of service activity firms to support their endeavors. As observed by Florid a, the Creative Class engages in more participatory extra curricular activities, is included in a higher social order and usua lly has more disposable income. Based on t hese traits the Creative Class is associated with high multiplier effects which are sought after by developers, decision makers, politi cians, and others that depend on e conomic growth for their livelihood. The A ttraction theory is also closely related to the mission of Co mmunity Redevelopment Agencies, as o ne of their main goals is to improve infrast ructure and aesthetics within the Community Redevelopment Area (CRA) in an effort to attract more businesses and co nsumers A C ommunity R edevelopment A gency will often implement strategies to improve urban form and aesthetics such as fa cades, build to lines, density requirements, roadways, sidewalks, architectural guidelines, and landscape suggestions all in an attempt to make the area more attractive pedestrian friendly, and create a sense of place These improvements along with enough income, can result in the kind of place that the Creative Class is attracted to and desires to call home Agglomeration Theory The theory of Agglomeration is actually a combination of a variety of economic development and growth theories, including (but not limited to) the Economic Base theory, Central Place theory and Endogenous Growth theory. The main premise for the theory i s that when firms within the same industry cluster, or when multiple firms within
24 the same industry locate in the same economic or geographic area, knowledge spillover occurs, resulting in greater opportunity for innovation. Knowledge spillover was first postul ated by Alfred Marshall in this 1890 book Principles of Economics, which suggests that knowledge spillover s occur when laborer(s) of one firm discuss methods of production with laborer(s) of another firm resulting in increased efficiency and/or innovation s. Knowledge spillover can also occur when a laborer ends employment with one firm and begins employment with another firm, within the same industry, and divulges knowledge to his new employer that results in increa sed production Third, knowledge spillov er can occur when different firms within the same industry voluntarily share knowledge in the pursuit of discovering a new industrial process that boosts the productivity of the industry as a whole Other effects of agglomeration happen when firms within t he same industry begin to cluster. For example, as the number of s ervice activity f irms increase s due to higher production by the base industry, the net effect is a larger workforce and greater overall economic activity Also education al institutions may expand to keep up with demand for human capital, thus resulting in a larger employment base Depending on the area local government may notice and offer subsidies for improved infrastructure transportation collaboration and education in order to attrac t even more firms All of these factors work together to reduce operational cost and increase production ef ficiency for the entire industry thus expanding the local and/or regional economy. Assessment of Economic Development Assessment of economic develop ment refers to the analysis of soc ial and /or economic activity levels since the adoption and implementation of economic development plans or policies Concurrently, assessment of economic development
25 questions the magnitude of impact that the plan or poli cy has had on the econom ic structure of the study area Further, economic development assessments should measure change in what the policy was intended to influence whether the policy was intended for physical enhancement, social reform or economic growth In order to properly assess economic development, indicators must accurately reflect change in the intended outcome of the policy by measuring a quantifiable change in production. Qualitative measures are appropriate in some case s: h owever, it may be di fficult to measure change in factors of production levels using qualitative methods M any indicators exist to assess economic development. H owever, not every indicator is applicable, depe nding on what is being assessed or possible, de pending on available data or feasible, depending on the scale and/or budget of the assessment For the pur pose of this research, indicators that measure performance at the local level will be discussed, specifically within the urban core. The terms urban core, downtown, and Ce ntral Business District (CBD) have no s tandardized definition: however, they may be used interchangeably. The U.S. Census Bureau defines the CBD as high land valuation characterized by a high concentration of retail businesses, service bus Bureau, 1982). According to Marvin Lee Investment on Urban Revitalization: A Case Study on the Redevelopment of Norfolk Virginia, 1935 Lee defined t hree main categories that make up a list of the most widely used and useful, economic indicators for measuring th e performance of redevelopment within the urban core or as he defines, within the CBD : physical,
26 demogra phic and economic. Lee addresses p hysical indicators that measure design and land use, acce ss and circulation, and parking within the CBD. Demographic indicators measure population, housing, and employm ent. Economic indicators measure retail sales, office building activity, conventions, tourism, and entertainment assessed valuation, and tax revenues (Lee, 1986) The next few paragraphs have been s dissertation (1986) and will address each indicator organized by the main category. The first physical indicator that Lee discussed addresses the attribute s of des ign and land use within the CBD Physical design refers to the layout of the transportation system access into and out of the CBD (rail, highways, roads, sidewalks, etc.), geograph ic characteristics (terrain, water ways, etc.), density, and development patterns ( block structure and land use) Geographic characteristics can greatly affect economic vitality of an area. For example, a coastal city that has sufficient water ways to supp ort cargo ships into and out of a port will have greater opportunity for industrial production than a coastal city that lacks sufficient water ways. Density also plays an important role in economic activity due to the fact that fi rms and households require floor space in order to carry out their functions and land is scarce within the urban core Mixed land use encourages economic activity by increasing the number and variety of destinations that bring people downtown. Some of these indicators may be diffi cult to analyze in a short term study due to the time needed to alter and/or quantify any change in the attributes. However, some of these attributes play an important role in providing background information that could affect some of the indicators that w ill be discussed later in C hapter 2 For example, if a
27 city has a poor transportation system, fir ms may find it difficult to transport goods to the consumers, either within the city or for export to other markets, possibly leading decision makers to consid er a transportation improvement plan. The second physi cal indicator that Lee discussed addresses acce ss and circulation within the CBD Access and cir culation within the CBD is important to retail stores, restaurants, entertainment venues and offices beca use these firms depend on high traffic volume so that consumers have the opportunity to purchase their goods and services. Proper design of the road system is crucial for vehicles to efficiently circulate through the CBD to get to their destination. Attrac tive, safe, and well maintained sidewalks are necessary so consumers are compelled to get out of their cars to walk. Transit should be considered when discussing access and circulation in cities that can support such public investment. Also, block size sho uld be built to human scale, meaning that city blocks should be of appropriate size to promote walking and provide convenient street crossing s. Faades should also be built to human scale by considering architectural elements t hat focus on the person not the automobile. The final physi cal indicator that Lee discussed a ddresses parking within the CBD and is closely tied to access and circulation. Parking is an important, but often overlooked, aspect of urban core design that may significantly affect the dec ision s by consumers to visit the CBD. If adequate parking is not available, consumers may choose to shop elsewh ere, detracting from the intent of a CBD. A basic measure of adequate parking is to investigate whether or not short term (1 2 hours) and long te rm (all day) parking needs are met. T his physical indicator does not directly represent growth; however, if parking i s not an issue at a given point in time but develops into an
28 issue, then economic activity may have increased over time, allowing for the c onstant that parking area has not changed The first d emographic indicator that Lee discussed addresses population within the CBD. Population within the CBD is important for economic growth because people that reside within the CBD support downtown busin esses more regularly than people that do not reside downtown. Similarly, people often decide to live downtown because of the location of their employment, which in turn keeps more money circulating in the downtown economy. For example, if a person lives do wntown, he/she has the opportunity to buy breakfast, lunch, and dinner downtown, every day of the week Whereas, a person that visits downtown once a week to dine at a particular restaurant will not have as much impact on the economic growth tha n the person that lives downtown. If population drops below a certain threshold, economic activity may significantly drop and jeopardize the vitality of downtown However, due to suburbanization and the commuting population a decrease in downtown populati on does not necessarily mean a declining downtown economy. The second demograp hic indicator that Lee discussed addresses housing within the CBD. Housing is closely related to population, in that the people that comprise the population must have a place to call home. Lachman and Miller (1985) state willing to provide incentives to attract downtown housing because it reinforces other Housing values within the CBD are typically more expensive than those outside the CBD due to the higher demand for land. Although some may raise the concern of inequity, the local government usually supports higher land values because they generate more revenue from property taxes than lower value property. However,
29 governments usually provide a clause in redevelopment plans for a variety of housing types that are attractive to persons with varying levels of income. Also, those that can afford to live where property values are high usually have more disposable income and therefore provide the c ity with more revenue via sales tax. The final demographic indicator that Lee dis cussed addresses employment within the CBD. Employment is a major economic indicator, partly because the data is readily available, but mostly because employment is a direct measure of economic activity. Employment represents the strength of an industry sector and allows economists to establish a baseline on which to determine the performance of the industry, as well as where the overall economy is headed. Employment can be us ed as a precursor for other indicato rs, such as population, housing, and banking activity For example, if employment drops, population may decrease due to people moving away from the CBD housing may become more available due to workers finding employment elsewhere, and banking activity may decline due to less disposable income and investment potential. The first economic indicato r that Lee discussed addresses retail sales within the CBD. Firms that engage in r etail sales are service activity based and ar e therefore s economic strength Hence, retail sales are considered to be a n in direct representation of economic activity. H owever, readily available data may be hard to locate when studying a particular portion of t he CBD, such as isolating example, if firms move from the most central part of t he CBD to areas on the fringe of the CBD, retail sales will remain constant within the CBD but the true locatio n of
30 economic activity will change spatially This disparity could lead to confusing and misleading results that may affect decision development efforts. However, if quality data on retail sales exist, this indicator c an be a powerful tool in assessing overall economic vitality. Lee notes mixed reviews on the effectiveness of revitalization efforts on increasing retail sales. Even if revitalization efforts do not significantly increase retail sales within the CBD, stud ies have shown that they can at least hold economic activity at a more constant level than if no revitalization efforts were made. Based on a study conducted by W eisbrod and Pollakowski (1984 that the dow ntown revitalization projects had a statistically positive effect on the rates of new establishment entry into the downtown study areas, but no significant impact on observed growth or exits of existing establishment s (1986, pg. 99) The second econo mic indicator that Lee discussed addresses office building activity within the CBD. S ince the 196 0s, office space has increasingly become a significant function of downtown activity due to the relocation of housing, retail stores and manufacturing plants to s uburbia. Office buildings constitute a large portion of local government tax revenue and therefore fill a major role in the success of downtown revitalization efforts. Alternatively, the success of industrial parks have given way to the popularization of o ffice parks, which often outcompete office space within the CBD due to cheaper rent, large parking lots and proximity to employees. However, if redevelopment plans can maintain a strong foundation of office space within the urban core the multiplier effe cts of this land use can significantly improve the long term economic strength needed to support a vibrant downtown.
31 The third economic indica tor that Lee discussed addresses convention, tourism, and entertainment within the CBD. Convention, touri sm, and entertainment venues w ithin the CBD have become a crucial element in successful redevelopment efforts of downtowns across the United States. These venues have filled large gaps left in the structural fabric of downtowns due to the vacating of indus trial and manufacturing plants that required relatively vast amounts of land within the CBD. These venues also offer high multiplier effects by attracting non CBD residents to visit downtown for reasons other than business. For example, convention centers and sports arenas increase occupancy at hotels retail sales of tourist goods, and restaurant activities. Natural resources, such as waterfront property, mountain vistas and outdoor acti vities increase tourism levels and results in even higher multiplier effects than convention centers. These venues also stimulate the development of night life activities such as bars, clubs, and late night eateries, which further enhances the vibrancy and attractiveness of the urban core. The fourth economic ind icator that Lee discussed addresses assessed valuation within the CBD. Assessed valuation of land within the CBD is a direct representation of the effectiveness of revitalization efforts. It is safe to assume that land values increase when the physical design and structure of downtown is made more attractive and subsequent (re)development occurs, creating higher demand for land through competition. A direct result of increased property values, and final economic indicator that Lee addresses, is the additional reve nue generated through property taxes. The property tax is a major priority for local government revenues and serves as a primary means for reinvestment of publicly generated funds to support redevelopment projects.
32 Lee state s s usually the largest city revenue source, it can be reasoned that an increase in property values in the CBD over time in comparison to the city pg. 105). Property Values a s an Indicator for Economic Development As the aforementioned economic development theories postulate, natural fluctuations in the business life cycle, shifts from manu facturing to service based industries and subsequent changes in firm location creates g aps in the physical structure of the urban core due to under utilized and/or vacant property. This phenomenon creates a necessity for urban planners to evaluate how to re use land and/or existing structures in order to revitalize blighted areas within the urban core. These circumstances are addressed locally by the goals stated by Community Redevelopment Agencies by their application of economic development theory to formulate plans and policies that strive to stimulate economic growth. Redevelopment is a broad term and has multiple applications. Redevelopment can include rehabilitation of old deteriorating structures. However, rehabilitation is primarily the pursuit of private firms rather than a task carried out by public office unless, in some cases, his toric preservation is an issue. Redevelopment from the public perspective comprises of land use and zoning changes in the local municipal code, improvements in infrastructure, adoption of policy that promotes and/or subsidizes rehabilitation by the private sector, and drafting of plans that provide vision and/or guidelines for redevelopment of a particular district or neighborhood. In cases of publicly owned land, redevelopment from the public sector may include allocation of public funds, analyzing the bes t use of funds and land, drafting of a redevelopment plan, and contracting of
33 development firms for demolition and construction. In almost every case of public sector planning, redevelopment aim s to put land to a higher use, improve quality of life for the public at large, reduce private and pu blic stakeholder risk, and increase the taxable base. Redevelopment efforts are intended to revitalize a struggling area and may play a crucial role in its economic success. Redevelopment of blighted areas can help f acilitate economic growth by influencing development patterns and decisions made by entrepreneurs. Economic growth through application of economic development theory is the primary goal of nearly every redevelopment initiative, especially Community Redevel opment Agencies. Economic development theory pertains to redevelopment based on the relationship between the implication of development patterns and the subsequent necessity to find new uses for vacated land w ithin the urban core. B ased on the notion that redevelopment plans serve as a tool for economic development, these plans Similarly, property values indicate a relationship between an increase in production and subsequent economic growth with the explanation put forth by the central place theory and bid rent theory. When firms and industries cluster in a region, in pursuit of increasing productivity, economies of scale create demand for production space (land) and property values rise accordingly, given that land is scarce (as it usually is within the urban core). Specifically, s tate of Florida legislation states that one of the primary goals of Community Redevelopment Agencies are to maintain and/or enhance the taxable base
34 which is directly related to property values since property taxes serve as a major contribution to the generation of tax revenue for the locality. As such, property values are a direct indicator for assessing the outcome of redevelopment plans based on t his objective of Community Redevelopment Agencies. Also, as redevelopment plans strive to provide opportunities for economic growth, property values serve as an indirect indicator in which to assess economic development within a locality. Thus, this resear ch will utilize property values as the indicator in which to assess this objective of Community Redevelopment Agencies and by association, the outcome of redevelopment plans and/or policies as a means in which to achieve economic development. As indicated by the research of Man and Rosentraub (1998), for tax increment financing (TIF) to succeed public investment in the district [Community Redevelopment Area] must result in increases in property values in the district to generate additional tax revenues. Therefore, property value growth is one appropriate measure of TIF IF, this research addresses the success of redevelopment plans adopted by the city of nt Agency. The relationship between TIF and CRA is intrinsically the same and therefore it is appropriate to use the same indicator to measure the success of either economic development tool.
35 CHAPTER 3 R EDEVEL OPMENT IN PENSACOLA, FL Background Information and Data on Pensacola, FL Pensacola, FL is located at the southern end of Escambia County, which is the western the northe rn part of the Gulf of Mexico. Pensacola was first settled by the Spanish in 1559 and has been ruled by five different nations, including Spain, France, England, the City Pensacola w as the first state capital of Florida, which later moved to Tallahassee for the sake of being closer to Jacks onville, which was the second largest city after Pensacola in Florida in 1824. Pensacola is a 450 year old city wi th a rich cultural heritage wh ich serves as a major regional attraction for tourists. The largest destination fo r heritage base d tourism is located in the heart of Pensacola, the Historic Downtown District. This district has many attractions including the Palafox Historic District (hig h end shopping, dining and a rich mix of nightlife opportunities within well preserv ed historic buildings), Historic Pensacola Village (a trail of historically accurate furnished homes), T.T. Wentworth Jr. Florida State Museum, Saenger Theatre, Pensacola C olonial Archaeological Trail, to Pensa The Gulf Islands National Seashore, which includes Pensacola Beach, also offers historically signi ficant attractions such as Fort Pickens, where Geronimo was held prisoner during the Civil War, and Fort McRae, where the Confederacy fought the Union to control Pensaco la Bay
36 Fest ivals and free public events stimulate visitor expenditure and create inc entive s for tourists to cho ose Pensacola over neighboring municipalities in the region. The city of Pensacola offers a wide variety of free, family friendly events each year, in cluding 110 events in 2008 alone. These events range from Polar Bear dips in Ja nuary to Barktoberfest, from the Double Bridge Run in February to the many Seafood Festivals during the summer and from the Blue Angels Air show to the Mullet Toss. Most of these events are held in downtown Pensacola or on Pensacola Beach. Tourism in Pens acola attracts nearly 3.7 million visitors each year and has a $1.2 billion impact on the local economy while employing 18,000 residents, per the Pensacola Bay Area Cham ber of Commerce (PBACC, 2010). The Pensacola Bay Area Convention and Visitors Bureau pu blish 2010 that City of Five Flags Pensac and the Redn ( www.Wikipedia.com ). The city of Pen sacola has a population of 51,923 people per the U.S. Census Bureau 2010 data and the Pens acola Ferry Pass Brent Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) has a population of over 448,991 (USCB, 2010 ). The racial composition for the city of Pensacola is 66% White, 28% B l ack, 3% Asian, and 3% other (USCB 2010). The Pensacola Ferry Pass Brent MSA cons ists of 78% White, 17% B lack, 3% Asian, and 1 % other (CRA, 2010). degree and beyond is 12% higher than the three county region (Baldwin County, AL to west, Escambia County, FL, and Santa Rosa County, FL to the east) and shares
37 approximately the same education attainment level as the s tate of Florida (CRA, 2010). The median household income for Pensacola is just over $45,000, whereas the m edian household income for the s tate of Florida is over $52,000 (CRA 2010). Unemployment rates in the Pensacola Ferry Pass Brent MSA are currently higher t han for the s tate of Florida, 10.3% and 10.7 % respectively, as o f August 2011 (USBLS, 2011 ). The largest employment gain for the three county region between 1998 and Labor Statistics (CRA, 2010). This increase could be significantly influenced by an increase in touri sm activity and redevelop ment of commercial properties. The largest employment loss for the three ( 91%) industries (CRA, 2010). The following paragraphs comprise d emographic information for the city of ata was provided by the office of the city y Redevelopment Agency in 2011 and was prepared in 2008 using Analys t TM software. Population within the CRA for the year 2000 was 3,077 and the population for 2007 was 3,040, while the projected population for 2012 is 3,059. The number of households within the CRA for the year 2000 was 1,384 and the number of households f or 2007 was 1,398, while the projected number of households for 2012 is 1,421. The number of housing units with in the CRA for the year 2000 was 1,735 (42.7% were owner occupied, 37.5% were renter occupied, and 19.8% were vacant ) and in
38 2007 there w ere 1,7 53 housing units (44.8% were owner occupied, 35.0% were renter occupied, and 20.3% were vacant), while the projected number of h ousing units for 2012 is 1,782 only +/ 1% change for each hous ing type compared to 2007 rates Median household income within the CRA for 2000 was $23,871 and 2007 household income was $29,912, while the projected household income for 2012 is $34,623. The median home value within the CRA for 2000 was $79,348, and the median home value for 2007 was $143,534, while the projected me dian home value for 2012 is $160,648. The median age of residents within the CRA in 2000 was 40.3, 42.4 in 2007, and projected to be 43.9 in 2012. The racial composition of the CRA in 2000 was 52.3% White, 44.0% Black, 2.1% Hispanic, and 1.6% other. The r acial composition of the CRA in 2007 was 45.3% White, 50.6% Black, 2.8% Hispanic, and 1.3% other. The racial composition for the CRA is projected to be 41.2% White, 54.5% Black, 3.4% Hispanic, and 0.9% other. Educational attainment within the CRA in 2000 for residents 25+ years of age, included; 8.4% had less than a 9 th grade education, 18.9% 9 th 12 th but did not receive a diploma, 20.2% graduated high school, 18.7% had some college but no degree, 7.9% ee, and 9.8% had either a projected information for 2012 were not available. In 2007, the employed population 16+ years of age by industry within the CRA includes; 1.5% in agricultural and mining, 11.4% in construction, 2.1% in manufacturing, 1.5% in wholesale trade, 7.7% in retail trade, 3.5% in transportation and utilities, 4.1% in
39 information, 6.1% in insurance/financial/real estate, 55.0% in services, and 7.0% in publ ic administration. Data for 2000 and projected for 2012 was not available. In 2007, the employed population 16+ years of age by occupation within the CRA includes; 9.7% management/business/financial, 28.0% professional, 9.4% sales, 10.7% administration su pport (57.9% white collar), 21.1% services, 0.8% forestry/farming/fishing, 9.5% construction/extraction, 1.5% installation/maintenance/repair, 2.6% production, and 6.7% transportation/material moving (21.1% blue collar). Data for 2000 and projected for 201 2 was not available. The number of businesses (by NAICS code) within the CRA in 2007 was as follows; 2 in Agriculture /Forestry/Fishing/Hunting 1 in Mining, 2 in Utilities, 64 in Construction, 19 in Manufacturing, 6 in Transportation & Warehousing 32 in I nformation 24 in Wholesale Trade, 102 in Retail trade ( 3 Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers, 5 Furniture & Home Furnishings, 10 Electronics & Appliance Stores 7 Building Material, Garden Equipment & Supplies Dealers, 10 Food & Beverage Stores, 5 Health & Pers onal Care Stores, 3 Gasoline Stations, 18 Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores, 8 Sport Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores, 2 General Merchandise Stores, 30 Miscellaneous Store Retailers, and 1 Non store Retailer ), 80 in Finance & Insurance ( 36 Central Ba nk /Credit Intermediation & Related Activities 27 Securities Commodity Contracts & Other Financial Investments 16 Insurance Carriers & Related Activities), 64 in Real Estate, Rental & Leasing 296 in Professional, Scientific & Tech Services, 170 in Legal Services, 1 in Management of Companies & Enterprises, 44 in Administrative & Support & Waste Management & Remediation Services, 17 in Educational Services, 45 in Health Care & Social Assistance, 22 in Arts, Entertainment
40 & Recreation, 69 in Accommodation (5) & Food Services (64), 89 in Other Services (except Public Administration), 87 in Public Administration, and 28 Unclassified Establishments. State of Florida Community Redevelopment Agencies The overarching g oal of any Community Redevelopment Agency is to increase the tax base for the parent municipality and is therefore a major player in affecting land economics, especially within urban areas. All Community Redevelopment Agencies in the s tate of Florida are tasked with identifying blighted areas, creati ng plans to counteract th ese blighted areas and improving the economic vitality of the Community Redevelopment Area (CRA) Community Redevelopment Agencies acros s the s tate of Florida have implemented redevelopment plans that are intended to increase prope rty values, exp and their taxable base, and improve quality of life for area residents. Due to blighted and devalued la nds within the urban core, Community Red evelopment Agencies have been the favored tool utilized by local government s to combat these circu mstances and ( re)attract private investment. C ommunity R edevelopment A gencies generate funds in order to revitalize blighted areas and o nce a CRA has received infrastructure improvements public amenities and in some cases d emolition of derelict building s, private developers may choose to invest in redevelopment efforts. These strategies allow C ommunity R edevelopment A gencies the opportunity to increase property values within its geographic boundaries. Enabling legislation for Community Redevelopment Agen cies within the s tate of Florida ca me from the s opment Act of 1969 (F.S. 163). Once strategic plans and guiding principle documents were created during the first part of the 1970s, it became apparent that these plans requ ired sources of f un ding in
41 order to implement. I n 1977 the Community Redevelopment Act of 1969 received an amendment that allowed governments to establish a Redevelopment Trust Fund (F.S. 163.353) in order to fund their redevelopment plans. As stated in t he Florida Statues, local a redevelopment trust fund in order to preserve and enhance the tax base of the One of the most widely implemented taxing s chemes supported by State Legislature came in the form Tax Increment Financing (TIF). TIF supplements a Redevelopment Trust Fund (RTF) by taxing land owners within a Community Redevelopment Area (CRA) prescribed by the local Community Re development Agency. The funds generated by this method of taxing are intended for long range plans that go through a lengthy a nd involved planning process. These plans often receive substantial public stakeholder involvement to ensure that funds go towards improving public amenities and infrastructure that will help improve land and property values within the CRA and entice private investment. Tax increment financing is used by Community Redevelopment Agencies in the s tate of Florida in order to provide funds for the redevelopment of targeted areas. T hese funds may be applied by a variety of economic development strate gies, including redevelopment plans and development incentives. As postulated by Dye and Merriman (2000), four of the major reasons that local governments may offer development incentives are to correct some market failure s remedy blighted areas, engage i n
42 bidding wars (as a means to attract firms to one municipality over another) and to provide for a means of intergovernmental revenue shifting (i.e., allow a local governmental entity to fund and implement economic development strategies in lieu of As stated by Man and Rosentraub (1998) regarding TIF, the following describes why localities may have adopted TIF strategies ; Municipal TIF adoption may come as a response to increasing fiscal strains. Municipal governments fi nance service delivery through tax dollars generated by local taxes and user charges, as well as intergovernmental aid. During the 1980s, federal aid to local governments for infrastructure rself forced state and local governments to search for creative means of infrastructure financing. Growing fiscal pressure may have encouraged local public officials to adopt TIF p mechanism is a borrowing technique that allows a city to substitute current borrowing for future revenue, cities with a heavier reliance on property taxes as a revenue source may be more likely to use TIF as an alterna t ive to a property tax increase. These circumstances have also led local governments to utilize TIF districts, or Community Redevelopment Agencies in the s tate of Florida, to supplement public expenditure by leveraging public funds to attract private inve stment. It is thought that in order to optimize public expenditure, public private partnerships should be utilized in order to increase the efficiency of redevelopment plans, as evidenced by Selby and Hunter (2004). In some cases, redevelopment plans speci fically call for the implementation of public private partnerships as a means in which to finance urban redevelopment. Considering the widespread adoption of TIF districts across the U.S. since the amine the direct effect of the TIF program
43 districts or Community Redevelopment Agencies that employ TIF as a financing strategy on property value growth have received mixed reviews in the existing literature. For example, Man and Rosentraub (1998) found evidence in Indiana owner occupied housing value in TIF adopting cities was 11% greater than that in non TIF study provides empirical evidence to support the premise that the municipal adoption of the TIF program stimulates property value growth in the TIF an expanding economy, then a TIF program does off er the potential for fostering growth and enhancing the property base and economic returns for a community. The targeted investment in a TIF district yields significant spillovers to the host (Man, 1998) Merriman et al (20 has stimulated real estate development within TIF district areas, but we find little evidence that TIF ha s led to significant increases in aggregate property values in communities [as Alternatively, Dye and Merriman (2000) in their work on the Chicago that adopt TIF grow more slowly after adopt City of Community Redevelopment Agency The city of Pensacola has recently received much attention from community redevelopment and revitalization efforts as evidenced by the adoption of numerous community redevelopment plans and policies. This attention is further supported by the subsequent increase in interest from the private development community. The CPCRA has incorporated extensive research and analysis in order to im plement numerous revitalization plans, policies, and strategies. They are designed to increase the quality of
44 life for area residents gen erate more tourism activity, and create a st ronger sense of place that will ultimately increase economic activity within the urban core and throughout the Greater Pen sacola Area Enabling legislation for the city of Pensacola originated with the adoptio n of Resoluti on No. 54 80 in 1980. The resolution announced a Urban Core Area (CRA, 2010). In 1984, the City Council adopted Ordinance No. 13 84, pment Trust The city munity Redevelopment Agency plan was adopted in 1984 and the second plan was adopted in 1989 The 1989 plan received numerous amendments while other plans were adopted to support unique districts and neighborhoods such as the Pensacola Waterfront Development Plan adopted in 1995 the Belmo nt Devilliers Land Use Plan adopted in 200 4 and the Pensacola Histori c District Master Pla n adopted in 2004 These plans are vital for individual districts and neighborhoods within the CRA to maintain their identity which further supports the goal of the newest redevelopment plan, the city of Pen Area Urban Core Plan 2010 The city redevelopment initiatives that do not necessarily employ adopted plans. Some of these initiatives include the Retail S torefront Faade Improvement Program, the Alcaniz Streetscape Initiative, CRA Events Enlivening Public Spaces, and Mixed Use
45 Planning Port of Pensacola ( www. city ofpensacola.com ). Some past projects include the revitalization of Downtown Palafox Street, Seville Harbour, the Downtown Wayfinding System, and the rehabilitation of the Pensacola Cultural Center. These programs and initiatives support the strategies stated within the CPCRA Urban Core Plans. City of Pensacol Plan The Community Redevelopment Plan for the Urban Core 1989 Plan (1989 CRA Plan) summarizes the Community Redevelopment Area Plan 1984 (1984 CRA Plan) and explains the relationship between the t wo plans. The 1989 CRA Plan states that the implementation. These projects first included the provision of inner city housing for low and moderate income individuals in the Belmont/ Devilliers Neighborhood, and second the Commendencia Slip Improvements designed to bulkhead and create additional useable waterfront acreage between the Port of Pensacola and the Municipal twenty one (21) ot her project elements, including relocation of the Police H eadquarters S outh Palafox streetscape and Plaza Ferdinand, Wayside Park and Entrance Image area, parking improvements, and urban waterfront/marina development. The 1989 CRA Plan i ncorporated many of the principles and projects that were included but not completed as stated within the 1984 CRA Plan. However, the 1989 CRA funds to achieve redevelopme nt was through the public investment in infrastructure and site improvements in locations which stimulated private The 1989 CRA Plan also described general
46 regular lot size, shape and development investment. The 198 9 CRA Plan focuses on seven overall objectives: 1) eliminate and prevent the development or spread of slum and blighted conditions, 2) provide for the redevelopment of slum and blighted areas, 3) recognize Pensacola as the central city of Escambia County and strengthen its tra ditional role as the center of government, business, tourism, communication, education, recreation, and transportation for the metropolitan area, 4) promote a diversity and concentration of use in the Redevelopment Area which allows for intense mixed use d evelopment, 5) capitalize on the waterfront in new development and redevelopment and link waterfront projects and activities to the inland sections of the Redevelopment Area, 6) emphasize public/private partnerships and joint funding approaches in impleme ntation of all projects within the Redevelopment Area, and 7) promote land use and activities which generate a 24 hour a day population within the Redevelopment Area. In addition, the 1989 CRA Plan recognizes seven (7) economic objectives, nine (9) land us e objectives, five (5) transportation, circulation, an d parking objectives, three u tility objectives, and four urban design objectives. The objectives guide the formulation of project design and implementation strategies. The plan includes a Neighborhood I mpact Element to for displaced residents in an effort to address gentrification issue s.
47 The 198 9 CRA Plan listed nineteen major new development and redevelopment projects within the CRA that were comple ted from 1980 1989, including 1) Civic Center, 2) Hilton Hotel, 3) Port Royal, 4) Jefferson Street Parking Garage, 5) One Pensacola Pla za, 6) Donovan Building, 7) Harborview, 8) New World Landing, 9) Gulf Power Corporate Headquarters, 10) New City Hall, 11) Palafox Place, 12) Municipal Auditorium parking lot, 13) Pitt Slip, 14) Plaza Ferdinand, 15) T.T. Wentworth Museum, 16) Paseo de Pala fox, 17) Belmont/Devilliers, 18) Mariner Offices, and 19) Durnford Building. These developments utilized approximately $37 million of public investment and yielded just over $90 million in private investment. The 1989 C RA Plan highlighted eleven Master Dev elopment Plan Priority Projects that benefited more than one Inner City group and were recommended for c om pletion by 1994. The Priority Projects included; 1) Wayside Park, 2) North Palafox Parkway, 3) Garden Street Parkway, 4) Jefferson Street streetscape, 5) Government Street, Zarragoza Street, and Wentworth Museum parking enhancement, 6) Zarragoza Street, 7) Seville Square enhancement, 8) Bayfront Parkway, 9) Gregory/Chase streetscape, 10) Garden Street Parkway, and 11) South Palafox breakwater. The 198 9 CRA Plan further defines seven special districts, including 1) Palafox Historic Business District, 2) Waterfront Redevelopment District, 3) Gateway Redevelopment District, 4) Governmental Center District, 5) Historic District, 6) North Hill Preservation District, and 7) South Palafox Business District. In January 2010, the city of Pensacola adopted, by Resolution No. 19 89, the Community Redevelopment Area Urban Core Plan 2010 (2010 CRA Plan) and included major elements that focus ed on improving residenti al, retail and office markets. The
48 strategic gui ding principles for the 2010 CRA Plan include d the following ; 1) prosperous attract more jobs and investment, 2) diverse embrace social and economic inc lusiveness, 3) distinctive celebrate and reinforce historic, entertainment and cultural destinations, 4) walkable focus on the pedestria n environment and 5) green promote the natural landscape a nd environment (CRA, 2010). The 2010 CRA Plan also includes specific strategies and refe rences independent m aster plans to improve areas such as the bay front, historic downtown various neighborhoods, and the ECUA Wastewa ter Treatment Facility. A dditionally the 2010 CRA Plan includes a Tourism, Arts and Entertainment element in order to attract more tourists to the downtown district by providing improved recreation facilities that may further enhance economic activity. Residential and commercial assessments were conducte d by RKG Associates for the 2010 CRA Plan in order to establish benchmarks for comparison upon completion of the plan. B ased on theories of economic development, it is plausible to hypothesize that public expenditure to improve the urban core may attract private investment that could result in increased property values in downtown Pensacola. T he following few paragraphs summarize the results as found by RKG Associates. Based on the results from the housing market assessment, the following analy sis was described within the 2010 CRA Plan : 1) consistent with national trends, for sale housing is in low demand. A study conducted by Zimmerman/Volk indicates that 500 multi family units for sale, 410 single family attached units for sale and 1,120 single family detached units for sale are currently available within the downtown /Community Redevelopment Area. 2) Due to a 90% 95% occupancy rate for rental units within the Community Redevelopment Area, more rental u nits should be constructed. 3) Adding
49 more residences within the Community Redevelopment Area will help to attract more businesses (CRA, 2010 ). Based on the results from the office market assessment, the following analy sis ffice lease rates are currently too low to build speculative office space, and no Class A office building has been devel oped (CRA, 2010). Their final recommendation was that efforts should continue to attract firms and/ or redevelop existing structures. Based on the results from the retail ma rket assessment, the following analy sis was described within the 2010 CRA Plan. The downtown area is primarily occupied by local A retail strategy commissioned by the Downt own Improvement Board indicated that there is opportu nity for more local and national (CRA, 2010). Improvements needed to attract more retail include 1) making Palafox Avenue a 2 way street from Garden Street to Main Street (the project was completed sometime before January 1, 201 observations), 2) intensify marketing strategies, 3) create sign ordinances for the CRA and 4) streamline the code and permitting process for new developments and establishments (CRA, 2010). While theories in economic development served as the academic rationale and the strategic guiding principles served as the vision, the two have coalesced into the CRA. The 2010 CRA Plan defines nine key princ
50 decision making as general development plans are implemented under specific site follows: 1) Reinforce & Enhance Recent Successes and Plans, 2) Strengthen Connectivity, 3) Fill the Gaps, 4) Access the Waterfront, 5) Activate the Waterfront, 6) Strengthen Neighborhoods, 7) Increase Downtown Residential, 8) Identify New Civic, Cultural a nd Entertainment Needs, and 9) Ensure Quality in Design and Development. The first key principle, Reinforce & Enhance Recent Successes and Plans, stresses the importance of allowing individual districts and neighborhoods the right to express themselves t hrough plans and strategies they have self drafted. This freedom of expression will ensure that each district or neighborhood retains its own distinctive characteristics; however, their plans must also reflect the strategic guiding principles stated in the 2010 CRA Plan. The following plans and strategies were adopted before and retain the centr al values of, the 2010 CRA Plan: 1) the 2004 Belmont/DeVilliers Neighborhood Land Use Plan, 2) the 2004 Pensacola Historic District Master Plan, 3) the Community Mar itime Park Project, 4) the Plaza de Luna, 5) the Downtown Strategy 2006. Although these plans and strategies were drafted before the 2010 CRA Plan, they have been further r einforced and/or enhanced by the 2010 CRA Plan. improvements should seek to support physical and social connections between neighborhoods and commun CRA). The specific strategies to implement the i deals of this principle include connect automobiles, pedestrians, and bicycles between neighborhoods and
51 destinations within the Urban Core as a priority over cre ating low friction automobile supports human safe, comfortable and attractive to promote increased pedest rian and bicycle (2010, CRA). Also, this key principle supports pedestrians by including a statement that CRA). The third key principle, Fill the Gaps, focuses on the continuous existence of store he principle states that sites create barren disconnects between neighborhoods and comm unity destinations. The form of how the gaps are filled is as important as the use and should uphold all primary street edges with parking to the rear of the building; parking may be conditionally located to the side of The fourth key pr inciple, Access the Waterfront, maintains that continuous pedestrian access to the waterfront should be a primary concern as redevelopment
52 the fact that much of it r Continuous access to the waterfront is a precursor to the next, and fifth, key principle, Activate the Waterfront. This principle stresses the importance of enhancing the natural beauty of Pensacola Bay w the waterfront. In addition, destinations along the waterfront should be accessible by a for pedestrian and cyclists. This principle also states that s hould uphold and leverage recent master plan visions and development guidelines for the Community Maritime Park and Pensacola Historic for active and passive recreatio CRA). (2010, CRA). The principle recommends many strategies that may strengthen ailing neighborhoods, including 1) support of community programs and law enforcement to provide safe, crime free neigh borhoods, 2) ensure that zoning districts provide for variety of housing types a CRA).
53 The seventh key principle, Increase Downtown Residential, is aimed at increasing support for downtown busin esses through expenditure by residents of downtown. The residential development to support restaurants, retail shops, offices, and to activate parks and open spaces. Resid ential tenants/owners also provide a security system of use buildings to support residential CRA). Also, incentives and streamlining of the development process should be provided that promote private investment of new development and redevelopment. The eighth key principle, Identify New Civic, Cultural and Entertainment Needs, promotes the notion that districts and neighborhoods with distinct cultural and entertainment backgrounds should be reinforced with expansion of and/or additional destinations that encourage both local residents and tourists to visit. For example, the principle identifies the Belmont/DeVilliers Neighborhood as having a unique erties along Heinberg Street and the railroad should be promoted as a new Design District that reuses the existing The ninth key principle, Ensure Quality in Design and Development, states that
54 this principle aims to ensure that new development is founded in good urban design, is consistent with existing architectural detail, and promotes visually appealing aesthetics in order to create an attractive downtown environment. These key principles create t he framework necessary to implement effective redevelopment strategies with the intention of attracting people and businesses to the urban core of Pensacola. With careful development review and quality construction, property values may increase and provide the Community Redevelopment Agency with a larger tax base so more funds may be reinvested back into the urban core. Volume II of the 2010 CRA Plan calls upon a variety of programs and activities that the Community Redevelopment Agency may use to subsidize and incentivize new development and redevelopment with the CRA boundaries. Pensacola Waterfront Development Plan The first Waterfront Development plan was adopted in 1995 by the Community Redevelopment Agency and aimed to promote economic development foc used near the bayfront. Historically, downtown Pensacola was oriented toward s the transportation and manufacturing industries that centered near the waterfront but since rily caters to the tourism and service (office and retail) industries Gaps in the urban fabric became apparent as transportation and manufacturing firms moved away from downtown Pensacola leaving behind derelict structures and blighted conditions along t he waterfront. The 1995 Waterfront Development Plan sought to put this area to a higher and better use by identifying and implementing five (5) projects. The 2000 Waterfront budgeted for construction within the next 12
55 The update in 2000 to the 1995 Waterfront Development Plan occurred as result of the City plans to include chang (2000,WDP). The changes that the City Council were concerned with included opportunities, such as the city Local Option Sales Ta x, a revenue source endorsed by a referendum in 1997, which includes several major projects in the downtown area such as a waterfront festival park, the relocation of the Bayfront Auditorium and new downtown parking facilities, with a total allocation of $ The 2000 Waterfro nt Development Plan included a S ummary of Project F indings that discussed potential for redevelopment of identified sites and the expected impacts of economic opportunity The sites include the Bruce Beach develo pment site, the Trillium site, the Commendencia Slips/Palafox Pier site, a small parcel owned by the CRA adjacent to the Aragon residential development, and the Port Royal development site. Some factors the analysis took into consideration regarding econom ic impacts included the final developed value of each site, tax revenue, number of jobs and payroll expenditure during the construction period and the same associated annual benefits of each site. The 2000 Waterfront Development Plan is guided by the follo wing objectives, which were drafted based on the Summary of Project Findings: 1) enliven the waterfront, 2) optimize positive economic impacts, 3) enhance public access to the waterfront, 4) support adjacent land uses, 5) provide potential for expansion, 6 ) maximize the impact of public sector infrastructure and parking investments, 7) create
56 potential city land lease revenues, and 8) optimize economic and fiscal impacts. These objectives serve as the basis for developing plans for specific site development and offer guidance for implementation strategies. Belmont/ Devilliers Neighborhood Land Use Plan The Belmo nt/ Devilliers Neighborhood Land Use Plan was prepared in 2004 for the Community Redevelopment Agency by Herbert Halback, Inc and Peggy Fowler & Associ ates. flexible framework for land uses to compliment and promote the revitalization goals ex The vision for lighted streetscape, with property maintained and paved sidewalks and street surfaces adequate off street parking, and a flurry of daytime activity generated by a variety of As background information, the plan illustrates existing conditions regarding h istorical development, architectural significance, existing zoning and land use, current trends, transportation access, environmental characteristics, and infrastructure. The plan also describes opportunities and issues regarding residential, commercial/of fice space, parks and open space, roads, parking, infrastructure, design, anticrime initiatives, heritage center, and beautification/clean up. The guiding principles in the plan outline the vision for the future of the Neighborhood and are stated as ; 1) D riven by a Vision, 2) Economically Viable and Diversified, 3) A Safe Community, 4) Protective of its Most Vulnerable Residents, 5) True to its History and Cultural Heritage, 6) Committed to the Public Realm, and 7)
57 Sustainable in the Long Term. The Neighbo rhood Land Use Plan Redevelopment Strategies are; 1) Housing Improvements and Neighborhood Protection, 2) New Parks and Recreation Centers, 3) Neighborhood Scale (nonresidential), 4) Urban Design and Infrastructure Improvements, 5) Transportation and Parki ng, 6) Sense of Place, and 7) Anticrime Initiatives. The plan also highlights recommendations for future land use and actions for the CRA to implement the plan. These guiding principles and strategies serve as the basis for developing plans for specific s ite development and offer guidance for implementation strategies. Pensacola Historic District Master Plan The Pensacola Historic District Master Plan was adopted in 2004 by the Community Redevelopment Agency and addresses issues within the district and in surrounding, adjacent, areas that are perceived to be limitations to further development coordinating public and private investment to capitalize o n those assets to increase the r as well as the quality of life the residents of the Historic District, the city, and the r egion. The Plan was developed in an open, public process engaging hundreds of people to create a 4, PHDMP). The plan includes recommendations for improvements to the public realm and four initiatives (2004, PHDMP). The plan describes opportunities and challenges as sociated with the physical characteristics of the Historic District. Opportunities include has increasingly become more important to attracting economic development,
58 restaurants, offices, museums, archaeological sites, and apartments. Challenges elopment to support a full range of retail uses or long neighborhoods, the Waterfront, and Downtown Pe nsacola by a series of traffic and land use barriers. Access to the District was de veloped in an effort to emphasize the Histo its challenges. The goals of the plan are listed as follows: 1) create a vibrant mixed use District presence that improves the economic development potential of the District, 3) develop connections to the Waterfront, Downtown, and Old East Hill, and 5) establish Pensacola and Historic Distr ict as the cultural capital of the Gulf Coast. Further, the plan utilized input from stakeholders to define strengths and weaknesses associated with the District and specific recommendations for improvement and design principles. It also included a Market Potential element to illustrate opportunities in residential development. The plan provides a framework for street pattern changes, parks/open space changes, actions to tame traffic and enhance the connections to the waterfront and parking strategies. The se improvements in public space are thought to make the Historic District more visible to both residents and visitors. The four initiatives include
59 public improvements, enhanced transportation connections, and private development recommendations along Alca niz Street, Ninth Avenue, the Fort Area, and provides infill development recommendations for the entire Historic District.
60 CHAPTER 4 RESEARCH DESIGN AND RESULTS This research is designed to provide an analytical approach to measure change in economic act ivity (i.e., growth) within the Community Redevelopment Area (CRA) Since economic growth may be influenced by economic development policy and redevelopment is a tool of economic development, it is safe to postulate that redevelopment may affect economic g rowth. Also, as a good planning practice, redevelopment should not occur without careful consideration for the application of economic development theory input from stakeholders within the community, and the appropriate use of public funds when draftin g r edevelopment policy which will guide implementation strategies thereof As mentioned in Chapter 2 the research explains that raising the taxable property base is a primary goal of Community Redevelopment Agency redevelopment plans and states that proper ty values are a good indicator for economic activity levels within a local area. In order to assess the impact of redevelopment policy on local economic growth, a quantitative indicator should be used that is able to measure change in economic activity. Fo r this research design based on the literature review of economic development theory, assessment, and the use of redevelopment plans as a means for economic growth, property values will provide the necessary information to determine change in the level of economic activity in the CRA An old saying states that a rising tide lifts all boats. This implies that as the tide rises (positive economic activity) all boats (property values) also rise with the tide. The inverse can also be stated that a falling tide (negative economic activity) lowers all boats (property values) Based on academic rationale previously stated in the literatur e review
61 and the notion implied by the relationship between boats and tides it is safe to postulate that property values ar e an appropriate indicator for measuring change s in economic activity Property values fluctu ate due to a variety of reasons such as demand for property, adjacent property use quality of design principles, urban form investment potential, state, natio nal, and global economic activity and of course, location Some of these v ariables may be affected by the degree of consideration and amount of resources allocated to a struggling area by the local governing body. been deemed as blighted but does not have a regulatory body to administer public In this re search, the city be the local governing body over the Community Red evelopment Area, also known as D owntown Pensacola. In order to measure any appreciable change in property values, continuous data over a significant time period needs to be available (i.e., time series) It is also important to include a cross sectional comparison. In other words, the research should c ompare data from the local level (CRA) to a larger entity ( city of Pensacola ) and compare that data to an even larger entity ( Escambia C ounty) which this research accomplishes Once property values for each political level (local, city county) are isolated, mean property values for each jurisdiction ca n be calculated which this r esearch also accomplishes Next the mean p roperty value for the CRA will be compared to the mean property value for the city of Pensacola and then to the mean property value for
62 Escambia C ounty. This comparison will be made for each year that data is avai lable to determine which jurisdiction exhibited the greatest change in property values during the study period The interest is not in which area has the highest (or lowest) mea n property value, rather the interest lies in which area did p roperty values i ncrease the greatest and/or which area exhibits the most stable mean property value s through times of economic recession If the mean propert y value within the CRA grew more signifi cantly during the study period compared to the mean property value s for the city or the c ounty, then the redevelop ment policies may have been effective. Further, if the mean pr operty value within the CRA remained more stable in times of economic recession during the study period compared to the mean property value for the city or the c ounty, then the redevelopment poli cies may have been effective due to property values exhibiting more resistance to negative economic activity The author of this research was able to obtain 15 years worth of data 1996 2010, from the Escambia County Property Appraisers office that includes the property value for every parcel in Escambia County. Unfortunately, data before 1996 is not available from the Escambia County Property Appraiser (ECPA) and could not be located elsewhere that includes the a ppropriate reference number Without the reference number a pr operty value cannot be assigned to th e correct parcel of propert y, thus such data is of little value to this research. Method ology The methods used for this research revolve around the use of ArcMap TM which is a Geographic Information System designed by ESRI, Inc. ArcMap TM allows the user to spatially analyze a wide array of attributes including, but not limited to, geographic data
63 po litical information economic activity (indicators) demog raphic data, and satellit e imagery/remote sensing. ArcMap TM also allows the user to build databases that contain large amounts of data in different layers which can be used to analyz e data based on associations. ArcMap TM uses shapefiles to spatially popul ate data that is geographically referenced and can accurately project data as one would view it on a map or from aerial photography This technological innovation has proven to be very useful for analyzing all types of data that can be associated to a phys ical location. The research methodology is b ased on property values per parcel within Escambia County. Other data that is pertinent to the researc h includes a shapefile for the c ounty that is comprised of each parcel based on 2010 parcel data and a shapefi le for both the CRA boundary and city limits. Based on these shapefiles, the author is able to isolate any and all parcels that are within each of the boundaries. For example, a selection (by location) can be made to isolate only CRA parcels (minus city an d c ounty parcels), another selection can be made to isolate only City parcels (minus CRA and c ounty parcels), a different selection can be made to isolate CRA and city parcels (minus c ounty parcels), and the final selecti on can be made to isolate only c oun ty parcels (minus CRA and city parcels). The capability to isolate areas at the parcel level allow s the user to obtain data for precisely defined areas in order to compare data f rom adjacent area s within the same locality Most sources of federally publish ed data that pertain to economic activity (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, etc.) do not allow for such small scale analysis due to the format of their data. Data from these sources are usually reported at the state,
64 county, city and/or Metropolitan Statistical Area level, whereas this research requires data per parcel. A fter the parcels associated with each political boundary have been selected ArcMap TM can calculate the mean proper ty value for each a rea These selections and calculations must be replicated for each year, 1996 2010. After the mean property value has been identified for each area per year, a graph can be made to view the data as a time series. Based on this data a comparison can be c onducted to see if there is a significant change in p roperty values within the CRA compared to the city and the c ounty or if property values within the CRA h ave remained more stable Based on the comparison of yearly property value data for each political boundary a conclusion can be made as to whether or not the redevelopment pol icies have had in impact on See Appendix A for a detailed step by step guide for replicating the methods used in ArcMap TM to obtai n the information derived from the raw data. Data Limitations Some limitations exist with the data used in the analysis of this research. First, the parcel shapefile used in the GIS analysis was published by the Escambia County Property Appraiser (www.escp a.org), based on 2010 parcel data. This is the only parcel shapefile available that contains the correct reference number to allow the ECPA property value data to join to a parcel shapefile. The limitation is that as the numbers of parcels change from year to year, due to merging and splitting of parcels by property be present when joining data to any year other than the year of the parcel shapefile (2010). Ideally, each year of property value data should have its own parcel shapefile. If
65 would be present. However, in the expert opinion of Mr. Chris Mathers, Bay County GIS Analyst, the (Chris Mathers, personal communication, September 17, 2011) The next limitation involved differences in property values per parcel between market property value data and taxable property value data. Market propert y value reflects the value of the property on the open market for every parcel regardless of property ownership. However, taxable property values have been nullified, set to a value of zero (0), for government properties (local, state, and federal) and tax exempt properties (churches, non profit organizations, schools, etc.) because these property owners do not pay property taxes. Also, the ECPA taxable property values reflect the adjusted value for each parcel after deductions for properties that received tax abatements, credits, and other partial property tax exemptions were applied. Another limitation of the data had to do with the timeframe the research was able to address. The first CRA Plan was adopted in 1984, twelve (12) years before the study period began. The final CRA Plan was adopted in 2010, the year the study period ended. Since property value data is only available from 1996 2010 it is impossible to establish mean property values before the first CRA Plan was adopted. However, this research c ould serve as an excellent baseline in which to assess the economic impact that the 2010 CRA Plan may have on the local economy in years to come. A fourth limitation of this data had to do with what is not considered to be within the scope of this research Some factors that are not included within the scope of this
66 2009 National housing crisis, 3) the 2005 hurricane season, or 4) National a nd/or State trends in development patterns. However, these factors would affect all of the political jurisdictions, as opposed to isolating and affecting a singular area. The only foreseeable exception would be that property values may have diminished more within the CRA and/or city compared to the c ounty after Hurricane Ivan, which made landfall during the 2005 hurricane season.
67 Results This section addresses th e question that operationalizes, or quantifies, the research question. The research question i s: have the various plans and policies adopted by the CPCRA effectively encouraged redevelopment within the CRA? The question that operationalizes, or quantifies the research question is : have property values within the CRA increased more significantly (o r remained more stable) than property values outside the CRA? If property values within the CRA increased more significantly than property values outside the CRA, the redevelopment policies may have been effective. Also, if property values within the CRA remained more stable than property values outside the CRA during times of economic recession, then the redevelopment policies may have been effective. Table 4 1 states the mean market property values and Table 4 2 states the mean taxable property values f or Escambia County, the city of Pensacola, and the CRA from 1996 2010, which were calculated using the GIS met hods described earlier in C hapter 4 This data was used to create a graph in Microsoft Excel TM to observe fluctuations in mean market and taxabl e property values over the time period of the study. As the data indicates, property values for the CRA are significantly higher than property values in either the city or c ounty. However, this research is not concerned with which area has the highest or l owest property values, rather the rate at which the values increase is of importance. Figure 4 1 graphically represents the mean market property values for Escambia County, the city of Pensacola, and the CRA from 1996 2010. Based on the graph which use s real mean property values, it is evident that while all variables followed the
68 same basic growth pattern, the CRA appears to have experienced the greatest change, especially from the end of 2005 until about 2008. The city and c ounty experienced very simi lar growth until about 2006 when Escambia County property values exhibited continued growth whereas the city values began to decline. A dip in the graph represents a recession in 1999; however, by 2001 the property values had recovered and in most cases ex ceeded the values found before the 1999 recession. The percent change in mean market property values betwee n 1996 and 2010 shows that the c ounty grew the most by 231% while the CRA grew by 146% and the city grew by 135%, which indicates that more developm ent occurred in Escambia County (minus city and CRA boundaries). This difference could be influenced by the fact that Escambia County has more developable land than either the city or CRA. Figure 4 2 graphically represents the mean taxable property values for Escambia County, the city of Pensacola, and the CRA from 1996 2010. All variables for mean taxable property values followed the same basic economic activity pattern. The graph shows relatively little change, except during the 1999 recession as found above but in this case, taxable property values did not reach pre recessionary levels until a large spike in values occurred in 2008. This spike could be due to an end in some form of tax exempt status for a large number of properties across the board fo r all property within Escambia County. The percent change in mean market property values between 1996 and 2010 shows that the c ounty and CRA both grew by 180% while the city grew by 113%. As for a ll maps represented in Figures 4 3 through 4 10, darker pa rcels represent higher property values and lighter parcels represent lower property values. As indicated,
69 for each year, whether market or taxable value, property values are highest at the arcels located south of the CRA boundary line and southwest of the CRA boundary line are represented but are presently underwater. Upon compara tive observations of Figures 4 3 through 4 10, one can see that property values per parcel steadily increase from 1999 through 2009. Also, it is clear that the taxable property value maps indicate a higher proportion of lighter shaded parcels than the market property value maps, representing that a large number of property received significant tax exemptions. This di fference does not influence the outcome of the analysis; rather it is simply an observation. Based on Figure 4 11, the ratio of mean market property values for the CRA compared to the city shows a slight increase in growth for the CRA during the time serie s. The ratio of mean market property value s for the CRA compared to the c ounty shows a slight decrease in growth for the CRA. The ratio of mean market property values for the city compared to the c ounty shows a slight decrease in growth for the city This indicates that mean market property values grew at a faster rate in the c ounty compared to the CRA while the same values grew at a faster rate in the CRA compared to the city T he comparison between jurisdictions in the form of a ratio is of significant v alue in which to assess the research question values increased at a faster rate (i.e., exhibited greater economic growth), the ratio between the two must be consistently higher. In other words, the line r epresented by comparing ratios must be positively sloped. While all CRA property values are higher compared to either of the other jurisd ictions, the rate at which the c ounty property
70 values grew is higher than the CRA property values as indicated by the negative ly sloped line. The rate at which the CRA property values grew is only slightly higher than the city property values, as indicated by a slightly positive sloped line. The difference in the rate of growth between CRA and city property values is not as great as the difference between CRA and c ounty property va lues. Also, it is evident that c ounty property values consistently grew at a faster rate than either the city or CRA property value s. I t is also clear that the growth difference between the CRA a nd city fluctuated during the time series, but ended with a slightly greater rate of growth for the CRA Finally, it appears that the c ounty experienced relatively the same rate of growth as compared to either the CRA or city as represented by nearly the same negative ly slope d line to c city to c ounty Based on Figure 4 12, the ratio of mean taxable property values for the CRA compared to the city shows a slight increase in growth for the CRA during the time series. The ratio of m ean taxable property values for the CRA co mpared to the c ounty shows little variation in growth. The ratio of mean taxable property values for the city compared to the c ounty shows a slight decrease in growth for the city This indicates that mean taxable property values grew at a relatively const ant rate in the CRA and c ounty while the same values grew at a faster rate in the CRA compared to the city Based on Figure 4 13, percent change in mean market property values followed the same basic fluctuations for each of the jurisdictions. However, percent change for the CRA showed slightly less fluctuation than either the city or c ounty.
71 Based on Figure 4 14, percent change in mean taxable property values also followed the same basic fluctuations for each of the jurisdictions. Again, percent change for the CRA showed slightly less fluctuation than either the city or c ounty.
72 Table 4 1. Mean market property values, 1996 2010. Year Escambia County City of Pensacola CRA 1996 $48,831 $65,359 $91,956 1997 $5 5,128 $73,664 $99,365 1998 $59,938 $80,952 $103,170 1999 $62,038 $82,509 $107,265 2000 $45,772 $53,888 $93,624 2001 $72,716 $98,395 $133,432 2002 $76,759 $100,988 $136,966 2003 $83,149 $109,955 $146,326 2004 $98,021 $121,755 $177,100 2005 $114,713 $125,061 $176,357 2006 $156,170 $163,357 $233,423 2007 $174,686 $165,365 $239,009 2008 $180,495 $164,000 $246,843 2009 $168,674 $157,574 $235,261 2010 $161,778 $153,839 $225,816 Note: Raw data was obtained from the Office of the Escambia County Prope rty Appraiser (2011), mean market property values were calculated by the author.
73 Table 4 2. Mean taxable property values, 1996 2010. Year Escambia County City of Pensacola CRA 1996 $26,460 $41,991 $52,367 1997 $30,560 $45,320 $55,333 1998 $26,308 $ 42,003 $52,127 1999 $35,285 $51,250 $61,273 2000 $19,395 $25,926 $40,163 2001 $26,350 $42,175 $52,192 2002 $26,364 $42,163 $52,192 2003 $26,185 $41,845 $50,892 2004 $26,385 $42,236 $52,193 2005 $26,724 $42,350 $53,388 2006 $26,737 $42,378 $53,410 2007 $26,751 $42,382 $53,427 2008 $81,615 $93,626 $161,457 2009 $77,486 $91,507 $153,993 2010 $74,243 $89,642 $147,014 Note: Raw data was obtained from the Office of the Escambia County Property Appraiser (2011), mean taxable property values were calcu lated by the author.
74 Figure 4 1. Mean market property values, 1996 2010.
75 Figure 4 2. Mean taxable property values, 1996 2010.
76 Figure 4 3. Map of market property values, 1997.
77 Figure 4 4. Map of market property values, 2001.
78 Figure 4 5. Map of market p roperty values, 2005.
79 F igure 4 6. Map of market property values, 2009.
80 Figure 4 7. Map of taxable property v alues 1997.
81 Figure 4 8. Map of taxable property v alues, 2001
82 Figure 4 9. Map of taxable property values, 2005.
83 Figure 4 10. Map of taxable property values, 2009.
84 Figure 4 11. Ratio comparison of mean market property values. Figure 4 12. Ratio comparison of mean taxable property values.
85 Figure 4 13. Percent change in mean market property values. Fig ure 4 14. Percent change in mean taxable property values
86 CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSION This research detailed pertinent theories in economic development that provides the framework for how and why Community Redevelopment Age ncies operate. The research also offere d multiple indicators for assessing economic development. Based on the literature review and available data, the author chose to utilize property values as an appropriate indicator for economic growth within the city Redevelopment Area. Next, redevelopment plans that have been adopted by the city of had knowledge of redevelopment strategies that could potentially have an impact on economic activity within the urban core. Finally, property value data was analyzed which provided evidence that redevelopment policies may have had an impact on economic growth within the CRA as compared to the city or c ounty P roperty values for both market and taxable purposes within the CRA were shown to remain more stable (i.e., less fluctuation) during time s of economic growth and recession than the either the city or c ounty. Although property values grew more significantly in the c ou nty than either the CRA or city ; property values grew more significantly in the CRA than in the city One explan ation for this may be that the c ounty has more developable land and that property within the CRA may not be as susceptible to regional economic recession as city Since property values, which are indicative of overall economic activity (growt h or recessio n), remained more stable within the CRA compared to property values outside the CRA as indicated by Figures 4 13 and 4 14 it can be deduced t hat redevelopment policies may hav e had an effect on maintaining economic growth within the CRA.
87 However, based on the evidence given, the research cannot deduce that property values within the CRA grew a faster ra te than property values in the c ounty. Also, is it difficult to postulate that CRA pr operty values grew at a significantly faster rate than property values in the city since little difference exists in the ratios between the CRA and the city Given the analysis, redevelopment policies have allowed for greater economic growth wit hin the CR A as compared to the c ounty, but may have allowed for only slightly greater economic growth in the CRA as compared to the city However, the redevelopment policies may have allowed for more stable economic activity within the CRA as compared to either the city or c ounty. I mplications for Public Policy Redevelopment plans, as public policy, should include elements that offer historical data regarding economic indicators and guidance to maintain continuous data in which to assess the policy in subsequent year s. Many plans offer market potential studies, residential and business analysis, and demographic trends but most plans do not offer sources or include data in which to assess the impact of economic activity that the plan(s) may affect. Perhaps including t he necessary data in a plan is not within the scope of the plan and/or is an inefficient approach, however; plans could recommend that appropriate offices and/or agencies should maintain data records so that assessment of economic activity is easier to con duct In regards to l ocal economic development, data should be maintained at a per parcel level in order to gain as much detail as is necessary to accurately assess economic activity A combination of different economic indicators is necessary in order to illustrate a complete and accurate account of economic growth. An assessment of economic
88 growth utilizing a single indicator seems to leave gaps in the whole picture, even though very detailed data (parcel level) was used. Many externalities exist and leav e further questions when utilizing a single indicator. Although a useful tool, property values can only explain a portion of economic activity within a locality. However, property values are still a viable tool in which to help assess economic development because of the availability of data and detail it can provide at the parcel level when discussing local economic development. With this in mind, public policy should allow for making economic indicator data more readily available for assessing economic dev elopment policy. Further Research This research shows that GIS can be applied to assessment of economic development. In order to gain a more precise assessment of economic activity other indicators should be included, in addition to property values. Emplo yment history is an indicator that could follow the same basic research design and methodology as market and t axable property values. Granted that employment history data is available from 1996 2010 at a large enough scale that could provide data at the district or more favorably the block level. Business revenues are another indicator that could follow the same basic research design and methodology. However, data may be difficult to access and even if data is available the likelihood that it is geograph ically referenced is minimal Yet, if data is available, a well educated GIS analyst could pr oduce information from the data in order to analyze for decision making Based on the data and information provided by this research, it would not be difficult to continue this research in 5 or 10+ years to s ee how the redevelopment policies may further impact economic activity levels within the city
89 APPENDIX ARCMAP TM METHODS The following is a step by step guide on how to replicate the ArcMap TM methods used in the analysis of this research to get the mean market property value and mean taxable pro perty value for each jurisdiction Every year must be calculated individually. The author used a student version of ArcMap TM 10.0. ECPA s hapefile (.shp) for every parcel within Escambia County. Escambia County GIS (.shp) for both the CRA boundary and city Limit Open ECPA Microsoft E xcel TM en, save the spreadsheet as an E xcel TM workbook, 1996 (.xlsx). 1996 (.xlsx), the file will automatically be shown as 1996$.xlsx map. lt In dropdown box number 2, select 1996.dbf (from the previous step). In dropdown parcel has now been populated with the property value information from the ECPA 1996 E xcel TM spreadsheet (.xlsx converted to .dbf). selected. K City
90 City City minus Right click Parcel ource City City Save the database as 1996.mxd To get the market mean property value for the parcels from each political
91 LIST OF REFERENCES Adelman, Irma. (1961). Theories of Economic Growth and Development. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press. Andrews, Richard. (1953a). Mechanics of the Urban Economic Base: Historical Development of the Base Concept. Land Economics, 29(2), 161 167. Andrews, Richard. (1953b). Mechanics of the Urban Economic Base: A Classification of Base Types. Land Economics, 29(4), 343 350. Bartik, Timothy. (2003). Local Economic Development Policies (Upjohn Instit ute Staff Working Paper No. 03 91). Michigan: The W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. Black, James. (2010). How Business Climate and Political Climate Influence Economic Growth and Economic Development in the American States Retrieved from ProQuest Digital Dissertations. (UMI 3415468) Blakely, E. & Bradshaw, T. (2002). Planning Local Economic Development: Theory and Practice (3 rd ed.). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications. Chang, Erick Paulo Cesar. (2007). Entrepreneurship and Economic Development and Growth in America: An Investigation at the County Level. Retrieved from ProQuest Digital Dissertations. (UMI 3255998) Chang, Shu Chun. (2009). Assessing Economic Activities an example from central business districts. Applied Economics, 41, 1791 1797. Community Redevelopment Agency. (2010). Urban Core Community Redevelopment Area Plan 2010 Volume I. city of Pensacola. Retrieved from http://www. city ofpensacola.com/CRA/live/ Community Redevelopment Agency. (2004a). Belmont/Devilliers Ne ighborhood Land Use Plan. city of Pensacola. Retrieved from http://www. city ofpensacola.com/CRA/live/ Community Redevelopment Agency. (2004b). Pensacola Historic District Master Plan city of Pensacola. Retrieved from http://www. city ofpensacola.com/CRA/li ve/ Community Redevelopment Agency. (2000). Pensacola Waterfront Development Plan. city of Pensacola. Retrieved from http://www. city ofpensacola.com/CRA/live/ Community Redevelopment Agency. (1989). Community Redevelopment Plan. city of Pensacola. Retrie ved from http://www. city ofpensacola.com/CRA/live/
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94 BIOGRAPHICAL SKETC H Tanner Mar tin graduated from Fayetteville H igh School with Honors located in Fayetteville, Arkansas, in the spring of 2002 and t ook electives that focused on business and pre engineering. He began to p ursue a Bachelor of Science in industrial e ngineerin g at the University of Arkan sas, but after an internship from spring 2003 through fall 2004, he decided that Industri al Engineering was not the profession in which he wanted to establish a lifelong career. He received a Bachelor of S cience in e nvir onmental s tudies ( g eography t rack ) from the University of West Florida in the summer of 2008. He immediate ly pursued a Master of Arts in urban and regional p lanning from the University of Florida and graduated in the fall of 2011 While studying at the University of West Florida, Tanner worked as the head trip leader and climbing wall manager for the Ou tdoor Adventures Program within the Department of Recreational and Sports Services. While studying at th e University of Florida, he worked as the Graduate Assistant for Parks and Outdoor Re creation at Lake Wauburg within the De partment of Recreational Sports. During the summer of 2010, he served as an intern for the city worked on the performance measures associate d with the city Economic Development Strategic Plan.