Using Ulam's Method to Test for Mixing

smith_a.pdf

with


1 > cm, > Cm2 > ... > Crm 1)2+1 > 0.


Since each step takes a maximal coefficient to construct a convex combination of a

ds-matrix, we call this the ds-greedy algorithm.


f = factorial(n);

pt = perms(1 : n); % perms generates all n! permutations.

M = zeros(n, n, f); % For each i, M(:,:,i) will be a permutation matrix.

for i = 1 : f; % This loops stores permutation matrices in M.

forj = 1: n;

M(j, pt(i, j), i) = 1;

end

end

v = zeros(l, f); %v will be the vector of convex coefficients

S P;



%This loops looks at the S c(i)*M(:,:,i) where M(:,:,i) is a permutation matrix

%and c(i) is that largest possible value s.t. S c(i)*M(:,:,i) has no negative entries.

forj = : (1 + (n 1)2);

c = zeros(l, f); %Stores largest values s.t. S c(i)*M(:,:,i) has no negative entries.

h = [ ]; %h will indicate where in c the max coefficient is.

for / = 1 : f;

c(i) = min((S. M(:,:, i)) ones(n, 1));

end


129









TABLE OF CONTENTS


ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .........................

LIST O F TABLES .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .

ABSTRACT ...............................

CHAPTER

1 INTRO DUCTION ..........................

1.1 Hypotheses for Testing ....................
1.2 Testing Procedure ....................

2 ERGODIC THEORY AND MARKOV SHIFTS ..........

2.1 Ergodic Theory . .
2.2 Markov Shifts .........................

3 STOCHASTIC AND DOUBLY-STOCHASTIC MATRICES ...

3.1 Doubly-Stochastic Matrices .................
3.2 Additional Properties of Stochastic Matrices ........

4 ESTIMATING THE RATE OF MIXING .. ............

4.1 The Jordan Canonical Form of Stochastic Matrices ....
4.2 Estimating Mixing Rate .. ................

5 PROBABILISTIC PROPERTIES OF DS-MATRICES ......

5.1 Random DS-Matrices .. .................
5.2 Metric Entropy of Markov Shifts with Random Matrices ..

6 PARTITION REFINEMENTS .. ................

6.1 Equal Measure Refinements .. ..............
6.2 A Special Class of Refinements ..............

7 PROBALISTIC PROPERTIES OF PARTITION REFINEMENTS

7.1 Entries of a Refinement Matrix .. .............
7.2 The Central Tendency of Refinement Matrices ......
7.3 Metric Entropy After Equal Measure Refinement .....

8 ULAM MATRICES .. ......................

8.1 Building the Stochastic Ulam Matrix .. ..........
8.2 Properties of Ulam Matrices .................









is constant for any length n permutations a then


E(A2A3...An) = 0.


Theorem 5.1.12. If P = (py) is a random n x n stochastic matrix where py are identically

distributed then E(A2 + A3 + ... + An) = 0.

Proof. Since P is a stochastic matrix, A1 = 1. By the definition of trace(P) and the

commutative property of the trace operator


trace(P) = 1 + 2 +...+ An and trace(P) = pl + p22 + ... + Pnn


It follows that


1 + A2 + ... + An = Pll + P22 + ... + Pnn


Taking expected values of both sides give


E(1 + A2 +... An) = E(p + P22 + ... Pnn)

1 + E(A2+ ... +An) = E(p1) + E(P22)+ ...+ E(nn)
1 1 1
=-+-+...+-
n n n
= 1.


Subtracting one from both sides gives the result D

Notation 5.1.13. If {PnJk 1 is a sequence of nk x nk matrices, let Ak,i denote Ai(Pn,).

We will use the next theorem to tell us about the eigenvalues of matrices that arise

from taking a sequence of refinements of {D,} 1.

Theorem 5.1.14. If {Pnjk =1 is a sequence of nk x nk stochastic matrices such that


E((Pn,)u) = for alli
nk









When we partition the unit square into four squares

1 0 0 0

0 0 1 0
1000

0010
P=
0100

0001

which has characteristic polynomial


(A 1)3(A + 1).


Our eigenvalues are 1, 1, 1, -1; P has four linearly independent eigenvectors so it is

diagonalizable. If we refine our partition into smaller squares we see that P will be a

diagonal block matrix with


/n [1 blocks and


n 01 blocks
2 1 0


(recall that n is a power of four). Since each block is diagonalizable, our refinement

matrices are diagonalizable with characteristic polynomial


(A 1) (A + 1) .


We ran our procedure 100 times with 106 pseudorandomly generated points

(uniformly) and saw the following results listed in table 13-1.

For every partition P = P, m = 106 appears to be sufficient and we fail to reject Ho

and correctly conclude that the map is not mixing.









[13] G. Casella, R. L. Berger, Statistical inference, The Wadsworth & Brooks/Cole
Statistics/Probability Series, Wadsworth & Brooks/Cole Advanced Books &
Software, Pacific Grove, CA, 1990.

[14] J. Ding, A. Zhou, Finite approximations of Frobenius-Perron operators. A solution
of Ulam's conjecture to multi-dimensional transformations, Phys. D 92 (1-2) (1996)
61-68.

URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0167-2789(95)00292-8

[15] P. Billingsley, Probability and measure, 3rd Edition, Wiley Series in Probability
and Mathematical Statistics, John Wiley & Sons Inc., New York, 1995, a
Wiley-lnterscience Publication.

[16] M. Rao, personal communication (2009).

[17] M. Poiniak, K. Zyczkowski, M. Kus, Composed ensembles of random unitary
matrices, J. Phys. A 31 (3) (1998) 1059-1071.

URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/0305-4470/31/3/016

[18] G. Berkolaiko, Spectral gap of doubly stochastic matrices generated from
equidistributed unitary matrices, J. Phys. A 34 (22) (2001) L319-L326.

URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/0305-4470/34/22/101

[19] M. Giona, S. Cerbelli, Connecting the spatial structure of periodic orbits and
invariant manifolds in hyperbolic area-preserving systems, Phys. Lett. A 347 (4-6)
(2005) 200-207.

URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j .physleta.2005.08.005









REFERENCES


[1] G. Froyland, On Ulam approximation of the isolated spectrum and eigenfunctions of
hyperbolic maps, Discrete Contin. Dyn. Syst. 17 (3) (2007) 671-689 (electronic).

URL http://dx.doi.org/10.3934/dcds.2007.17.671

[2] F. Y Hunt, Unique ergodicity and the approximation of attractors and their invariant
measures using Ulam's method, Nonlinearity 11 (2) (1998) 307-317.

URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/0951-7715/11/2/007

[3] Froyland, G. Aihara, Kazuyuki, Ulam formulae for random and forced systems,
Proceedings of the 1998 International Symposium on Nonlinear Theory and its
Applications 2 (1998) 623-626.

[4] S. M. Ulam, Problems in modern mathematics, Science Editions John Wiley &
Sons, Inc., New York, 1964.

[5] M. Dellnitz, G. Froyland, S. Sertl, On the isolated spectrum of the Perron-Frobenius
operator, Nonlinearity 13 (4) (2000) 1171-1188.

URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/0951-7715/13/4/310

[6] T. Y Li, Finite approximation for the Frobenius-Perron operator. A solution to Ulam's
conjecture, J. Approximation Theory 17 (2) (1976) 177-186.

[7] G. Froyland, Using Ulam's method to calculate entropy and other dynamical
invariants, Nonlinearity 12 (1) (1999) 79-101.

URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/0951-7715/12/1/006

[8] J. R. Brown, Ergodic theory and topological dynamics, Academic Press [Harcourt
Brace Jovanovich Publishers], New York, 1976, pure and Applied Mathematics, No.
70.

[9] P. Walters, An introduction to ergodic theory, Vol. 79 of Graduate Texts in
Mathematics, Springer-Verlag, New York, 1982.

[10] V. Baladi, Positive transfer operators and decay of correlations, Vol. 16 of Advanced
Series in Nonlinear Dynamics, World Scientific Publishing Co. Inc., River Edge, NJ,
2000.

[11] G. Birkhoff, Three observations on linear algebra, Univ. Nac. Tucuman. Revista A. 5
(1946) 147-151.

[12] G. H. Golub, C. F Van Loan, Matrix computations, 3rd Edition, Johns Hopkins
Studies in the Mathematical Sciences, Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore,
MD, 1996.


143








The next three theorems for eigenfunctions of f* are similar to theorems regarding
eigenvectors of stochastic matrices and help justify using eigenvectors to approximate
eigenfunctions.
Proposition 9.1.2. If u is an integrable eigenfunction of f*, f*(u) = Au, and f is
p-meausure preserving, then

A = 1 or I udlu = 0.

Proof. The function f is measure preserving, so f, u o fdp = f, udp. Since u is an
eigenfunction, f*(u) = Au; so u o f = Au. Thus

/ ud = Aud p

(1 -A) ud/l =0.

Thus the statement holds. D

So if u is an eigenfunction of f* and defines a probablitiy distribution function on D,
then A = 1.
Proposition 9.1.3. If u is an eigenfunction of f*, f*(u) = Au, and f is p-meausure
preserving, then

IA < 1.

Proof. By hypothesis Au = u o f, so if we integrate over any set in B,

j Aud i = u o fd/j l

JA Jud f =f(A)

It follows that for any natural number k,

Ak / ud/l = f ()ud/.
JA Jf-(A)










(Pil+ Pi2 ... Pin) = 1

Pil + Pi2 + P in +0 = 1.

Where 0 is the summation of the remaining addends after expanding the multinomial.

-- P _il PN -...- Pn <

=1-pN -pN -...-pi->0 <1
Pil + Pi2 + + Pin -

E(" Pi,2 ... P ) = E(1 ) < E(1)

nE(p) = 1 E(0) < 1

1 E(0) 1
E(pN) = (O) < -
n n n
1
Now we prove that < E (pN) by using Minkowski's inequality.


1 = Pil Pi2 ... +Pin

= (Pil + Pi2 + ... + Pin)
= E((Pil Pi2 + + Pin)N

= E ((pil+ Pi2 + ... Pi)N)




Since p, are identically distributed, these expected values are all equal,


1

Dividing both sides by n gives


n

Finally taking powers of both sides gives the result.


< E(p, ).










Conjecture 6.2.8. If {Pn, }J is a sequence of ds-matrices where P,,, is a refinement

matrix of P, for all k, then


{|fA2(Pn, )|} 1


is a submartingale.

This conjecture was proven for Dk-refinements by the previous theorems.

Theorem 6.2.9. If Pnk is a k-refinement matrix of Pn, then


trace(Pnk) < k(trace(Pn)).


Proof. By the refinement equations,


k k

a=1 /=1


kpii.


n k k
^CC^+p,
i=1 a=1 /=31
n k

i=l a=l a#3
n k n

( Y a (i aP,)
i=1 a=1 i=1 a 3


It follows that


trace(Pnk)


(i p,. ) = ki p.
/=1 ai3 /=1


Since 0 < p, ,


trace(Pnk) < k(trace(Pn)).


Thus we get the result.


Thus


k Sp
i=1


ii1









2. If ((l/n, l/n, 1/n,..., l/n), P) is ergodic but not mixing, we will reject the hypothesis

that (D, B, p, f) is not ergodic in favor of the hypothesis that (D, B, p, f) is ergodic

but not weak-mixing.

3. If ((1/n, 1/n, 1/n,..., 1/n), P) is mixing, we will reject the hypothesis that (D, B, p, f)

is not ergodic and not mixing in favor of the hypothesis that (D, B, p, f) is ergodic

and weak-mixing.

The following lemma and theorems give us criteria for when


((1/n, 1/n, 1/n, ..., 1/n), P)

is ergodic or mixing.

Lemma 2.2.9. Let P be a stochastic matrix, having a strictly positive probability vector p

with pP = p, then
N-1
Q = lim 1y9pi
i=

exists. The matrix Q is also stochastic and


PQ = QP= Q.

Any eigenvector of P for the eigenvalue 1 is also an eigenvector of Q. Also


Q2 = Q.

Theorem 2.2.10. Let fn denote the (p, P) Markov shift (one-sided or two-sided). We can

assume pi > 0, Vi, where # = (p, ..., pn) (P is n x n). Let Q be the matrix obtained in

the lemma above, the following are equivalent:

1. (Xn, Zn, (p, P), fQ) is ergodic.

2. All rows of the matrix Q are identical.

3. Every entry in Q is strictly positive.

4. P is irreducible.








Taking absolute values of both sides of the equation yields


JA Jud f-k(A)

,Ak ud | _< |u|d _< |uldy
JA Jud
|A k udp < u\dp.

Now, u is an eigenfunction, thus u z 0 and there exists B c B such that JB ud/ z 0.

IAIk< ud, for all k e N.
I fB udl-p
Since IAk is bounded above for all k e N, AI| < 1. D

Notation 9.1.4. If u e L'(D, B, p), {{Dki iD ~ is a sequence of nk-partitions (I(ki) =
- for all k, i), let Uk denote the simple function over {DkiI} defined by
nk
n' f udp. ni
uk(X1) = U x) = Y [ ud,] (x).
k i=( i= 1
By construction

Sk dp/ = u d forallki,

and thus

SUk d = u dp for all k.

So Uk is our best approximation of u over the o-algebra generated by {IDki ,}. In fact
Uk is a projection of u onto the set of simple function over {Dki}i 1 [14]. If {Dk+li ,}I is
a refinement of {Dki} 1, then the set of simple functions over {Dki} 1 is contained in
the set of simple functions over {Dk li,}n1 ; it follows that uk+ is a better approximation
of u than uk. We use the entries from stationary distributions of {Pnk ,} to construct
approximations of stationary distributions of f*. If #k = kPnk and # it a probability vector









Proof. All stochastic matrices have real entries, so det(P) e R.


det(P) = AjA2...An


Taking absolute values of both sides, we get


Sdet(P) =| AA2...An I

= AI 1II A2 ... An

<1.


Thus we get the result. D

Corollary 3.2.3. If P is an n x n stochastic matrix then A2...An e [-1,1].

The next result shows that if we are working with a class of ds-matrices with large

entries on the diagonal, then the eigenvalues are not uniformly distributed on the unit

disk. If we write the Gershgorin circle theorem for stochastic matrices, we can quickly

find a region that will contain all eigenvalues.

Theorem 3.2.4. If P = (p,) is an n x n stochastic matrix then


A min Pii < 1 min pii


for all eigenvalues.

Proof. By Gershgorin circle theorem there exists i such that
n
A p,, < S PU
j= 1,ij

P is a stochastic matrix, thus
n
SP= Pii.
j 1,iJj

It follows that


A p,, I 1 -p,.









Theorem 6.1.5. If Pnk is an nk x nk ds-matrix, then Pnk is a k-refinement matrix for some

n x n ds-matrix.

Proof. The matrix Pnk is ds so all rows and columns sum to one, all entries are

nonnegative. Look at the block matrix formed by breaking Pnk into n2 blocks of size

k x k. Call the blocks {BU}l
B11... B1n
Pnk = '

Bnl ... Bnn

Take the sum of each block's entries. Let

(E Bll)...(E Bin)
B=

(E Bnl)...(E Bnn)

Notice that B is an n x n matrix. Since Pnk is ds, all rows and columns of B sum to k and

all entries of B are nonnegative. Hence ( )B is an n x n ds-matrix. D
k
If we take a sequence of refinement matrices


{Pnk =1 nklnk+l, Ak,2 = n2(Pnk),

then {Ak,2}k 1 measures mixing at each refinement. Since A(k+l),2 measures mixing on

a finer partition than Ak,2, one would expect {IAk,2 1' to be a nondecreasing sequence,

this is not the case. There are examples of sequences that have |A(k+1),21 < Ak,2. The

observed refinement matrices with decreasing eigenvalue magnitude had poor mixing

between states of the form D,, D2,,..., Di,. That is, the mixing was poor between states

that were all contained in one prerefined state.

Proposition 6.1.6. If {Pnj lnk+l is a sequence of nkl -refinement matrices, then
Snk
{Ak,2} is not necessarily a nondecreasing sequence.








Hence the results hold.


Definition 6.2.6. [13] The bias of a point estimator W of a parameter 0 is the difference
between E(W) and 0; that is,

BiaseW = E(W) 0.

If E(W) = 0, then we call W an unbiased estimator of 0. If E(W) / 0, then we call W a
biased estimator of 0.
Theorem 6.2.7. If Pn is an n x n ds-matrix with Dk-refinement matrix Pnk, then

A2(Pn)l < E(I|A2(Pnk)l).

Furthermore IA2(Pn) is a biased estimator for IA2(Pnk)l whenever the probability
distribution of I A2 (Pnk) I has support above I A2 (Pn) That is to say

I 2(Pn)l < E(I|A2(Pnk)l).

Proof. Pnk is a Dk-refinement matrix of Pn so

IA2(Pn)l < IA2(Pnk)l.

Hence

|A2(Pn)| < E(I|A2(Pnk)).

Whenever the probability function of |A2(Pnk)l has support above IA2(Pn)I,

|A2(Pn)| < E(I|A2(Pnk)l).

Thus we get the result. D

When we refine {D,}n 1, the approximation of (D, B, p, f) is finer. So the criteria to
mix over the refined partition is more stringent. Since A2(Pnk)l is our measure of mixing,
we make the following conjecture.









12.2.2 Full Convex Combinations

The Birkhoff-von Neumann theorem provides a technique for generating Monte

Carlo probability distribution functions for real functions of ds-matrices. If we want to

randomly generate a doubly stochastic matrix, then the Birkhoff-von Neumann theorem

tells us that we may apply a randomly generated weighted average to the set of n x n

permutation matrices to get a randomly generated ds-matrix. Recording the statistics

of the random ds-matrices gives a Monte Carlo approximation of the desired probability

distribution.

Proposition 12.2.4. If u is a length N vector where ui is a nonnegative random variable

for all i and P(u = 0) = 0, then as is a random convex combination almost surely.

We may take the absolute value of real random variables that are continuous at

zero to get convex combinations. If we change the distribution of the u,'s, we change the

distribution of the convex combinations and thus change the distribution of the doubly

stochastic matrices. To verify this, compare the results when the u,'s are independent

uniform([0, 1]) random variables, and when u, = v2 where the v,'s are independent

cauchy(0, 1) random variables.

Notation 12.2.5. Let = (71,..., TN) denote a convex vector.

Proposition 12.2.6. If is a random probability vector (convex combination) of length N

and y, 72, ...., 7N are marginally identically distributed, then

1
E(yi) -

for all i.

Remark 12.2.7. The convex coefficients of the 7 from the previous theorem are not

independent, if one entry increases (decreases) then sum of the other terms must

decrease (increase) to preserve 71 + 72 + ... +

123









Algorithm 12.2.10 (Rao's Convex Data Extention). If {Pk}'L 1are the n x n permutation

matrices and y is a length n! convex vector, then for any permutation on (1, 2, ..., n!), ,

n!
-7a'(uk) Pk
k=l

is an n x n ds-matrix.

So if is a random convex vector, then we may extend our data by randomly

selecting permutations to generate new ds-matrices.

12.2.3 Reduced Convex Combinations

Theorem 12.2.11. If P is an n x n ds-matrix then P equals a convex combination of n x n

permutation matrices with at most (n 1)2 + 1 nonzero coefficients.

Proof. There are n2 entries of an n x n matrix; all rows and all columns of a ds-matrix

sum to one so there are (n 1)2 degrees of freedom. We may treat the set of matrices

whose columns and rows sum to one as a set with dimension (n 1)2. By the

Birkhoff-von Neumann theorem the set of ds-matrices is convex with permutation

matrices as corners. By Carathodory's theorem for convex sets, every ds-matrix may be

expressed as a convex combination of (n 1)2 + 1 permutation matrices. D

We will refer to convex combinations of permutation matrices that use all n!

permutation matrices almost surely as full convex combinations. We will call convex

combinations that use (n 1)2 + 1 permutation matrices reduced convex combinations.

The next result shows that full and reduced convex combinations sample from

probability spaces with different measures.

Theorem 12.2.12. Let f and be random convex vectors of length n!. All entries of f

are nonzero almost surely; has (n 1)! or fewer nonzero entries. If { Pk } is the set

of n x n permutation matrices,

n!
Pf = Z(~f)kPk
k=l


126










Jensen's inequality


E(\ P- P F)<


E( P-PI)

E(ZZ(P -

i=1 J=1


i=1 j=1


i=1 j 1
n n1


ZZ gn2
i=1 j 1
n-1


n
<-
g


Taking square roots of both sides leads to


E(11 P-p) F ) We get the result when we take the limit as g goes to infinity.
We get the result when we take the limit as g goes to infinity.


The next example is an extreme case to show the futility of using too few points.

Example 12.2.3 (min mi = 1). If we run the dealer's algorithm to approximate the

probability distribution of ds-matrices for Ulam's method with min mi = 1, then g = 1. All

matrices in our Monte Carlo approximation will be ds-matrices with exactly one 1 in each

column and each row, thus the matrices are permutation matrices. All eigenvalues of a

permutation matrix have magnitude one. If follows that the subshifts of finite type arising

from the Monte Carlo matrices are nonmixing. So if we we use the Monte Carlo matrices

to estimate the probability distribution of I 2 we will fail to reject that (D, B, p, f) is not

weak-mixing.


122


1)2)
n

1 )2)
n









Multiply both sides by n,


n(E(l,-k(Di) n )- E(,- ))E(1j ,)) =[(p(k)_ P),].

Square both sides,

n2(E(lf-k l n) /n)- E(1,-k p))E(1 ,))2 =[(p(k) P),]2.

Take the sum of these terms over both i and j,
n n n n
"n2 (E(1- i) n) E(If-k ))E(I,))2 = (P(k) -
i 1 j 1 i1 j 1

Take the square root of both sides to get the left hand side to equal the Frobenius norm,

n( (E(l1 Di)n) (E(1-k ))E(1))2)/2 =( (p(k) P)) 2
i 1 =1 i=1 j 1
= || p(k) P |IF


By the definition of covariance, we get the result.


So we may use the sequence {| P(k) P IF}I 1 to detect decay of correlation

between simple functions over sets in -({ID,} 1). Also we may use the rate at which this

sequence goes to zero to measure the rate that the dynamical system strong-mixes over

7({ i}D,} n )
Definition 10.1.5. Let (X, E, v, g) be a dynamical system, a finite partition of X, {Ai}nl,

is a generating partition of Z if
n
S= ( U U gk(Ai)).
-oo
Since Markov partitions capture the dynamics of a system, we use the sequence

{11 p(k)_ pk IF} 2


109









Theorem 12.2.8. If C1, 2, ..., cNvI are independent identically distributed gamma(a,3)

random variables and 7 is the probability vector given by

Ci
C1 +... + CNv+'

then the marginal distribution for each yj is beta(a,Na).

Proof. Since c1, c2,...., CNI+ are gamma distributed, 0 < c, ..., CNv+ almost always. Since

c1, C2,..., CN+ are iid we may show the result for 7N+1 without loss of generality,

P(-N+I < k) = P( CN < k)
C1 + ... + CN + CNv+

= P(CNv+ < (c1 +... + CN + CN +)k)

= P((1 k)CN+l < (c1 +... + CN)k)
(c +... + CN)k
= P(CNv< ).
1-k

Now c1, C2,..., CN are gamma, the moment generating function of c + c2 + ... + cN

shows us that c + c2 + ... + Cv is a gamma(Noa,) random variable,
f0/0 j X& '-1 -x/S yNVa-le-y/P3
P(<7NI < k)= k -- rox3NNc dxdy

d odf f< Xo-le-x//3 yNa-le-Y//I
dk P(dk ) [ (a)a F(Na)N d

Using the definition of derivatives and the dominated convergence theorem, we see that
d "f d xfx-le-x/P yNa-le-y//3
dkP(<7N+l < k) = dNdxdy.
dk P dk 0 Fr(a) F(Na) Na

It follows that


SP( dk
rorN(1 j)y+l_ y(N+I)a-I exp( )dy.
F(a)F(Na)(i -k)"+ (+ (I)"









k2E(p(P ) < k2p < k2 k k2 E(p2 )
1
E(p, ) < p < 1 E(p~+).



Using the left inequality we get

1 1
E(p2 ) < p < 1 E(p21) < 1 p
pO k WE-) 1
P 1 < E(p,2 ) <

Combining this statement with the fact that a squared value is nonnegative gives us the
result. D

Corollary 7.1.5. If Pn is an n x n ds-matrix, Pnk is a k-refinement of Pn, Pn = (p,), Pnk

(pij), p,, are identically distributed of each fixed ij, then

1 2
V(pP) < (1- k2)P

Proof. A standard result is that V(pij) = E(p2, ) E(p, )2.
Thus

p2
V(pidj) = E(p2J) E(p)2 = E(pi ) E E 2 J

Using the previous theorem we get

p2 1 2
V(pio) < p- = (1 k2)P

So we have an upper bound on the variance. O

Theorem 7.1.6. If Pnk is a k-refinement matrix of Pn, then

E(trace(Pnk)) = trace(Pn), and

E(A2(Pnk)+ 3(Pnk) + ... + Ak(Pn,)) = (Pn) + A3(P) + ... (Pn).









matrix defined by


(P,,y = (f () C IDk X E IDki)

Let Pn be the operator that maps simple functions over {D(ki,}7 to simple functions over

{kiD, 1 such that P (Uk(X)) corresponds to ik Pnk
By construction


i=


I udp.
Dr


When u defines a probability distribution, ik is a probability vector.
We will use


P, (uk(X))


to approximate


f*(u).


We will use left eigenvectors of


to construct approximations to eigenfunctions of f*. The next theorem shows that when
f* acts on probability distribution functions and u o f is continuous,

p*
nk

converges to the Perron-Frobenius operator defined by our stirring protocol.
Theorem 9.2.4. If u e L'(D, B, p), (D, B, p, f) is a p-measure preserving dynamical sys-

tem, f{{IDki }1, is a sequence ofnk-partitions, and {Dk liI,}1 i's a -refinement of
nk









Table 13-5. The Baker's Map
Number of States Average A2(P) I Typical p-value of X2
4 0.03 0.004
16 0.17 0.00
64 0.33 0.00
256 0.44 0.00
1024 0.53 0.00
4096 0.61 1.00


A typical P for four states is

0.5013 0.4987 0 0

0 0 0.4995 0.5005
PM
0.5011 0.4989 0 0

0 0 0.4997 0.5003

max(IP P|) 0.0013

|A2(P)I z 0.0079.

Typical significance levels will conclude that we used enough points when

n = 4,16, 64, 256, 1024,

but m = 106 is not sufficient when n = 4096. We know that the map is mixing, the

induced Markov shift is mixing but the eigenvalues of the approximating matrices do not

reflect the rate of mixing. This example demonstrates how eigenvalue instability and

insufficient m can throw off an observation.

13.6 The Chirikov Standard Map (parameter 0)

The Chirikov standard map is a Lebesque measure preserving function that maps

the torus to itself


f(x, y) = (x+ ksin(27y), y +x k sin(27y)).


140









Algorithm 12.2.1 (The Dealer's Algorithm for DS-Matrices in Matlab).


M = zeros(n, n);

deal = randperm(n g);

forj = 1 : n g;

M(mod(j, n) + 1, mod(deal(j), n) + 1)...

M(mod(j, n) + 1, mod(deal(j), n) + 1) + 1;

end

P =(1/g) M;

When we use Ulam's method to generate P our target matrix, P, is a ds-matrix

so the column and row sums of M = (my) should be close to constant if mi is

constant. The entries of P will be rational by construction. If we set g = min mi then

the Dealer's Algorithm gives us a way to generate a Monte Carlo approximation of the

probability distribution of P. The other algorithms we present approximate the probability

distribution of P. The dealer's algorithm should be used when

1. The number of sample points is smaller than we would like (min m, is small).

2. We have no knowledge of the distribution before hand.

3. We want to sample ds-matrices with entries from { : a e {0, 1,2,..., g}}.
g
Theorem 12.2.2. If P is an n x n ds-matrix generated by the dealer's algorithm, then


|| P P IF -> 0 in probability as g oo, and

E(ll P P F 0 as g oo

Proof. The second statement implies the first, so we just need to show convergence

of the expected value. Let P = M, where M is a random matrix defined by the
g
number from each suit a player receives in the dealer's algorithm. The entries of M, md,

are marginally nonindependent binomial ( g) random variables by construction. By
n









Some dynamical systems have atypical behavior for subsets of measure zero. If

we use a mesh of points for sampling, we may unintentionally sample exclusively from

an atypical subset. To avoid this type of sample bias, the points should have random

coordinates. This way if a subset has an atypical property, sampling will probably not

be from that subset only. Usually it is easier and faster to generate m random points

(m = Y:1 mi) in D then count mi, rather than generate m, points in D,. The quotient in

the proof that P converges to P provides a way to decide how large m should be before

generating data. If mini<,in{m,} is too small, generate more points and combine the

sets of points until min
The function f is measure preserving, so if after applying the map to the points

there is a Di with no data points, not enough points were used. If minl
sufficiently large and close to being constant, the number of points in Di before and

after mapping will be about the same.

The matrix P is a ds-matrix, P will be a stochastic matrix and may not be a

ds-matrix. For (v, P) to be a Markov shift, P must be a stochastic matrix and 7 must

be a left eigenvector of P and a positive probability vector. So the criteria of ergodicity

and mixing hold for our observations as long as P has a left eigenvector that is a

positive stationary distribution. We will show that P converges to a ds-matrix as

min1 o, so if our observations do not provide such a vector either not

enough points were used, a hypothesis was violated or an error was made.

8.2 Properties of Ulam Matrices

Theorem 8.2.1. Let P be an n x n stochastic matrix from Ulam's method (n is fixed) and

the sample points are independent uniform random variables, then


i ->p p almost surely as mi oo,

and

E(p) = p,.










(v, appears in the vector k times for all i) is an eigenvector of Pnk with eigenvalue A, then


V1

v2



vn

is an eigenvector of Pn with eigenvalue A.

Proof. By the hypotheses


n k


j= 1 = 1



a=l j
n k k

j=1 a= 1 =1

The matrix Pnk is a k-refinement matrix of Pn and


: v,.

k

5 Avi.
a=1


k 0kv,


k f 0, thus


n
v5kp, = Akv,
j=1
n
p, = Av,.
J=1


Hence the statement holds.


Theorem 6.1.8. If Pn is an n x n ds-matrix, Pnk is a k-refinement of Pn, PnV = Av, v

(vi), then


Thus the vector


(v, appears k times) averages out over block rows to be like an eigenvector of Pnk.


Zk Tn 1k
ja _j_1 B=1P'.Jl/ J


( V1 ... V1 V2 ... ... Vn... Vn,









Now we look at a matrix that defines a linear map that we may use to evaluate the

eigenvalues of P. We may use this map when eigenvalue stability is uncertain.

Notation 3.2.11. Let T denote the n x n matrix

I P.


Notation 3.2.12. Let < u, v > denote the standard dot product on the vectors u and v.

The next theorem shows that A2(P) = Ai(TP).

Theorem 3.2.13. If P is an n x n stochastic matrix, then

A(TP) = (A(P)U{0}) {1},

where A denotes the multiset of eigenvalues. Moreover, any eigenvector of P with A f 1

is an eigenvector of TP with the same eigenvalue.

Proof. Since P is a stochastic matrix,







is an eigenvector with eigenvalue one and has norm one. For any vector, v = (vi),

< v, >


is orthogonal to u.


- < u > =V- < V,




= Iv-


1 1


)( )



-
/K









In this paper, we present the testing procedure and hypotheses of testing early on,
we do this to give an overview of paper, help the reader understand the goals of this

work, and provide easy reference. Background information about ergodic theory and

Markov shifts is provided to establish our notation and review critical concepts. Since
the stirring protocol is modeled with a doubly-stochastic matrix, a review of stochastic

and doubly-stochastic matrix properties is presented. When the approximating Markov
shift defines a mixing dynamical system, the rate at which the matrix converges to
a rank one matrix provides an estimate of (D, B, p, f)'s mixing rate; construction of

the estimate is provided to justify its utility. When a decision is made based upon
observations, statistics can establish confidence in the decision, the approximating
matrix is treated as a random variable so that statistics may be used. Properties of

random doubly-stochastic matrices are given to illuminate the approximating matrix
as a random variable. How does the Markov shift change if the partition is refined?
Will a sequence of partitions lead to a sequence of Markov shift dynamical systems
that converge? What will the convergence rate be? As a first step to answering

these questions, we look at the relationship between Markov shifts before and after
a refinement, then investigate the probabilistic properties of random partitions. To
be consistent, we only consider refinement that have partition sets of equal volume.

Ulam's method gives us a approximating matrix that usually cannot be observed directly,

numerical or statistical observations can approximate this matrix with a Monte Carlo
technique; proof that the Monte Carlo technique converges is provided. Ulam's method

converges to an operator [6]; similarities between the approximating matrix and the
target operator are established, and proof of convergence with respect weak-mixing is
given. Decay of correlation is a well established measure of mixing; the second largest

eigenvalue of the approximating matrix and decay of correlation are different measures
of mixing. Decay of correlation is a better measure of mixing, but requires a sequence of

stirring iteration, the second largest eigenvalue requires one iteration. If the partition is a









P, we have a measure of the mixing rate. What if n is so large that the Jordan canonical
form of P is not computable?

Theorem 4.2.1. The sequence defined by

n( 1 I2 N-n 1


N E N provides an estimate of f's rate of mixing.

Proof. Let J be the Jordan canonical form of P with conjugating matrix E,

P = E-1JE, pN = E-1jNE.

If |A2(P)I = 1 then JN does not go a rank one matrix as N -> oo, and we do not
conclude that (D, B, /, f) is weak-mixing.
If A2(P)| < 1, 1 has multiplicity one, hence [1] is a Jordan block; all other
blocks have diagonal entries with magnitude less than one. If we look at powers of
a Jordan block Bi, (N > n), the diagonal is AN... A, the subdiagonals are zeros, the
superdiagonals are A" d() where d is the dth super diagonal. So the upper right entry

of a Jordan block is the slowest to converge to zero. When |A2(P)| < 1 and i > 1,

rN- d(N)
N=d

passes the ratio test, so the sum converges. Thus all entries of BN go to zero as

N -> oo. If we look at ratios of the upper right entries, we see that eigenvalue magnitude
influences the rate of convergence more than block size. Thus the upper right entry of

the largest block of A2 converges most slowly to 0. The largest block size possible for A2
is (n 1) x (n 1). Therefore the rate at which entries of J that converges to zero go
no slower than the rate that A'-" 1(nN) -> 0. The equivalence of P and J shows that

the rate that AN(nN) -> 0 as N -> oo gives an upper bound on the rate that pN goes to a
rank one matrix as N -> oo. D









If u = 1, then Uk = 1, SO Uk = u. When u = 1, it represents an ingredient with

constant concentration, that is to say the ingredient is mixed throughout.

Notation 9.1.7. If {{IDki 1}} is a sequence of nk-partitions where {IDk+ li,} is an
nk -refinement of {Dki} 1, nk nk +, nk < nk +, then let Sk and So denote the following
nk
a-algebras,

Sk =-({Dki,} )

the intersection of all a-algebras containing the partition sets {Dki, 1},
00
S, =(SU Sk)
k=l

the intersection of all a-algebras containing UJ, Sk.

Notice that Sk C Sk+l

The function Uk is Sk-measurable and integrable, and


j uk d = j ud p for all A Sk

by construction. It follows that

Uk = E(UlSk).

Definition 9.1.8. [15] Let X1, X, ... be a sequence of random variables on a probability

space (Q, F, P), and let ,, F2, ... be a sequence of a-algebras in T. The sequence

{(Xk, Fk)} =1 is a martingale if these four conditions hold:

1. k Ck k+i;
2. Xk is measurable in Fk;

3. E(|Xk|) < oo;

4. with probability one, E(Xk+ Fk) = Xk.









We have the uniform([0, 1]) distribution forp when C is a uniform([-p, 1 p]) random

variable.

The expected value of a beta(a, /) random variable is and p is fixed so if
a + p
E(c) = 0, then


a +p

It follows that

p2(1 p)
p--a

So if E(c) = 0, then V(p) decreases as a increases.

12.2 Approximating Probability Distributions

The rest of the chapter will look at other ways to approximate the probability

distributions of ds-matrices when the central tendency of the distribution is not specified.

We propose using one of the following Monte Carlo technique to approximate probability

distributions of statistics) from random ds-matrices when n > 2.

1. Use the dealer's algorithm to generate ds-matrices

2. Take convex combinations of all n! permutation matrices to generate ds-matrices

3. Take convex combinations of (n 1)2 +1 or more permutation matrices to generate

ds-matrices

4. Use unitary matrices to generate ds-matrices

12.2.1 The Dealer's Algorithm

Say that a dealer has a deck with n suits and g cards in each suit (ng cards in

the deck), shuffles the cards such that the order of the cards is a uniformly distributed

random variable. Then the dealer deals the entire deck to n distinct players. We can

represent the number of cards in a suit that each player received with an n x n matrix,

each player corresponds to a row, each suit corresponds to a column. All rows and all
1
columns will sum to g. We get a ds-matrix after rescaling the matrix by
g


120











Example 3.1.17 (Special Case n = 2). If n = 2 then a ds-matrix is of the form[: q
q p
q = 1 p.

p q 1 0 01
= P + q
q p 0 1 1 0

Notice that for 2 x 2 ds-matrices are always symmetric.

Example 3.1.18 (Special Case n = 3). If P is an n x n ds-matrix then P is a convex
1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1

combination of 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0

00 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0
Since the first four permutation matrices are symmetric and the last two are not, the
010 0 0 1

convex coefficients of 00 1 0 0 determine how far a ds-matrix is from

1 0 0 1 0
symmetry.

The next theorem shows that DS,, is a bounded set.

Theorem 3.1.19. If P is an n x n ds-matrix, then for the 1-norm, 2-norm ,0o-norm and

Frobenius-norm


I P P
Proof. By the Birkhoff-von Neumann theorem P is a convex combination of permutation

matrices. Assume that P = 1i, iPi where {Pi}n1 is the set of n x n permutation

matrices,
n! n!
|| P P iPi- a |I
i=1 i=1
nI
= ai(P,- P)I
i=1
n!
< a, I P,- P
i=1









The following is the simplest general example of a k-refinement. We present it to

show the relationships between the unrefined Markov shift and the refined Markov shift.

Example 6.1.3. If we have a 2-partition and apply a 2-refinement, what does P2 tell

us about P4 ? Here we are looking at the situation where P2 is a known matrix from a

Markov shift ((1/2, 1/2), P2) and we want to make an inference about the Markov shift

that results if we refine our partition, ((1/4, 1/4, 1/4, 1/4), P4). Let


P2 = q and


P1111 P1112 P1121 P1122

P1211 P1212 P1221 P1222
P4 =
P2111 P2112 P2121 P2122

P2211 P2212 P2221 P2222

First let's look at P4 as a ds-matrix without considering it as a refinement of P2. The

matrix P4 is a stochastic matrix so all rows sum to one.


P1111 + P1112 + P1121 + P1122 1

P1211 + P212 + P1221 + P222 1

P211 + P2112 + P2121 + P2122 1

P2211 + P2212 + P2221 + P2222 = 1

Our matrix P4 is a ds-matrix so all columns sum to one and we get the additional

equations.


P1111 + P1211 + P2111 + P2211 = 1

P1112 + P1212 + P2112 + P2212 = 1

P1121 + P1221 + P2121 + P2221 =1

P1122 + P1222 + P2122 + P2222 = 1









Corollary 2.2.13. The sum

(D, B, f).


n 1 i p,-i (log(p,) gives an estimate of the entropy of
n


Proof. Set (p, P) = ((1/n, 1/n, 1/n,..., 1/n), P), pi = 1/n Vi.


Theorem 2.2.14. If (p, P) is a Markov shift on n states (one-sided or two-sided) then its

entropy is less than or equal to log(n).

Corollary 2.2.15. If h is an upper bound for the entropy of (D, B, p, f) then we should

set

n > exp(h)


when we partition D.

Example 2.2.16. Here are some examples of Markov shifts with four states.
1/6 5/6 0 0

5/6 1/6 0 0
1. ((1/4,1/4,1/4,1/4), ) is a non-ergodic Markov sh
0 0 1/3 2/3

0 0 2/3 1/3
entropy approximately 0.544.
0 1 0 0

0 0 1 0
0010
2. ((1/4,1/4,1/4,1/4), ) is an ergodic Markov shift, but is non-n
0 0 0 1

1 0 0 0
entropy 0.
0001

1000
entropy 0.


1/4 1/4 1/4 1/4

1/4 1/4 1/4 1/4
3. ((1/4,1/4,1/4,1/4), 1/4 1/4 1/4 1/4
1/4 1/4 1/4 1/4

1/4 1/4 1/4 1/4
shift achieves the entropy upper bound


ift with


nixing, with


) is a mixing Markov shift. This Markov









LIST OF TABLES
Table page

13-1 The Reflection M ap . . 135

13-2 Arnold's Cat Map ........... ...................... 136

13-3 The Sine Flow Map (parameter 8/5) ........................ 137

13-4 The Sine Flow Map (parameter 4/5) ........................ 138

13-5 The Baker's M ap . . 140

13-6 The Chirikov Standard Map (parameter 0) . 141









Where mi is the number of states that start in state Di.

5. Let A, be P's second largest eigenvalue in magnitude. If A2 is not unique pick an

eigenvalue of minimal distance to one.

6. If IA2 is sufficiently smaller than 1, reject the hypothesis that (D, B, p, f) is not

mixing in favor of the hypothesis that (D, B, p, f) is weak-mixing.

7. If IA2 is not sufficiently small, but IA2 11 is sufficiently large reject the hypothesis

that (D, B, p, f) is not ergodic in favor of the hypothesis that (D, B, p, f) is ergodic.

8. If AX is close to one, fail to reject the hypothesis that (D, B, p, f) is not ergodic.

9. If we accept the hypothesis that (D, B, p, f) is weak-mixing, use the rate at which


(N,) 12 N-nl -> 0 as N o

as an estimate of the rate at which f mixes.
10. Let
n n
t -- p, log(p,)
n
i= j=1

be our estimate of our entropy. Note that by construction of n-partitions, a sta-

tionary distribution of P is (1/n, 1/n,..., 1/n), so we use (1/n, 1/n) for the

stationary distribution of our approximating Markov shift.

When we use the term sufficient, we compare the test statistic to the corresponding

critical value for hypothesis testing. The critical value comes from the level of significance

we set, and the test statistic's probability distribution. When we make a decision, it is

better to conclude that a weak-mixing dynamical system is not mixing (type II error) than

to accept a non-mixing dynamical system as weak-mixing (type I error). We will discuss

probability distributions in a later chapter. We propose using a beta distribution with

a > 2, and / = 1 to set the critical value for the weak-mixing hypothesis.
Definition 8.1.2. The matrix M = (my) from the previous algorithm is called an Ulam

Matrix.









variable on the unit disk, then IA21 is a beta random variable with a = 2, / = 1. We

propose that if we have no insight into the value of a, then we should set it equal to two.

When the beta distribution is the correct distribution and a > 1, / = 1; if we set the

critical value with a smaller alpha parameter, we will be less likely to make a Type I error,

if we set the critical value with a larger alpha parameter, we will be less more likely to

make a Type I error. So it is better to use an alpha parameter that is too small rather

than too big.

The next example describes the probability distribution function if n = 2, and p is a

beta(a, /) random variable.

Example 12.1.1 (n=2). Say that


P= p q
PI


and we observe a perturbed version of P,


P=


P=P+e,

q=1l-p-e.

Where c is a random variable such that is a beta(a, /) random variable, then


P(p < kip) = P(p + c < kp) = k F(a ) ( -1 t)3-ldt.

It follows that


If = 1, then P(p < kp) = k.

If a = 1, then P(p < kIp) = 1 (1 k).

If a = 1, and3 = 1, then P(p < kIp) = k.


119









pT is stochastic, but P is not symmetric.


Theorem 3.1.4. If P is the stochastic matrix formed by taking an n-partition of

(D, B, p, f), then P is a ds-matrix.

Proof. By construction, P is a stochastic matrix. Since 0 < p, < 1 for all UI, it suffices to

show that the sum of all columns equals one. Since p(x e D,) are all equal, p(x e D,) =
1
n
n n
pY= u(f(x) Dxe D,)
i= 1 i= 1
p(f(x) e DAxeID,)
_(X E ]Di)

nt (f (x) e Dr Axe D,)
1
i= 1
n
n
= n yp(f(x) e Dj Ax e D,)
i 1
n
= np(f(x) e Dr Ax e D,)
i 1

= n(f(x) e D) = n(1/n) = 1.


So 2i py 1. It follows that PT is a stochastic matrix. D

We skip the standard proofs of the following lemmas. The next lemma shows that all

of the eigenvalues of a stochastic matrix are on the unit disk of the complex plane.

Lemma 3.1.5. If P is an n x n stochastic matrix and A is an eigenvalue of P then


A < 1.


Next we show that the largest eigenvalue of any stochastic matrix is one with

an eigenvector of all ones. Because of this lemma, we may use (1/n,..., 1/n) as a

stationary distribution of P. Since our goal is to measure mixing between n states each

with measure 1/n, (1/n,..., 1/n) is intuitively the correct stationary distribution to use.









The sum of each row (column) is one, so if py and Pij are on the same row (column)

and p. increases, pi,j tends to decrease to maintain the sum. If i f i' andj / j', when

p. increases, py, tends to decrease to maintain the row sum; when py, decreases, pi,,
tends to increase to maintain the column sum.

When P is a random matrix, det(P), trace(P), and A,(P) are random variables. We

look at properties of these random variables for the remainder of the chapter.

Theorem 5.1.10. If P = (py) is an n x n matrix (n > 2), and E(pI,(I)p22(2)...Pno(n)) is

constant for any length n permutations a, then

E(det(P)) = 0.

Proof. We need to use the definition of determinants that uses permutation,

det(P) = (-1) Pl(1)P2,(2)...Pn(n).
a is a permutation

Where k, = 1 if is an odd permutation and k, = 0 if a is an even permutation.


E(det(P))= E( 1)k1(1)P2(2)Pn(n)
a is a permutation

S (- )k, E(P1,(1)P27(2) P...pn(n))
a is a permutation

= (-l)kE(PllP22...Pnn)
aT is a permutation

= E(pP22...Pnn) (-1)ke
a is a permutation

Since n > 2 half of the permutations are even, and half are odd. D

Corollary 5.1.11. If P = (pu) is an n x n matrix (n > 2), and










So each eigenvalue is contained in a closed disk centered at pii with radius 1 pii for

some i. All of these disks have a diameter in [-1, 1] that contains 1. If we look at the real

numbers in [-1, 1] contained the ith disk,


Ix P < 1 pii

Pii 1
2pii 1
2 min pj.-1 < 2pii 1 x 1
J

2min p 1 J

min p -1 J J J

x minpy < 1 min pj.
J J

It follows that the real numbers contained in I A pi < 1 pi are contained in the disk

defined by I A -minj py I< 1 minj py. Since the center of each disk is contained in [0, 1],

all disks are contained in I A minj pj 1< 1 minj pjj. D

Corollary 3.2.5. If P is an n x n stochastic matrix with all diagonal entries greater than -
2
then P is invertible.

Proof. For an n x n matrix to be invertible, all eigenvalues must be nonzero.

1
I A pi I< 1 minipii <


Since

1
< miniPii,
2

the open disk centered at pij with radius does not contain zero. D
2









--log(n) < E(p, log(py)).
n

Thus we get the two inequalities. O

The next theorem is useful if one wishes to use the harmonic mean of the entries of

a random stochastic matrix.

Theorem 5.2.2. If P = (py) is a random n x n stochastic matrix where py are identically

distributed and 0 < py almost surely, then n < E( ).
1
Proof. Since f(x) = is a convex function on (0, oo), Jensen's inequality tells us that
X
1 1
< E(1)
E(pJ) pU

1/n pu
-^)
n < E( ).

And the statement follows. O









Table 13-1. The Reflection Map
Number of States Average I A2(P) I Typical p-value of X2
4 1 0
16 1 0
64 1 0
256 1 0
1024 1 0
4096 1 0


13.2 Arnold's Cat Map

Look at the unit square as a torus and apply Arnold's cat map,

2 1 x
f(x,y) = mod 1.
11

This map is strong-mixing. When we partition the unit torus into four squares

1/4 1/4 1/4 1/4

1/4 1/4 1/4 1/4
1/4 1/4 1/4 1/4

1/4 1/4 1/4 1/4

which has characteristic polynomial

A3(A 1).

This matrix arises from our particular partition of four subsquares of the unit square. A

way to confirm that this is the correct matrix is to draw the mapping of the subsquares

on the xy-plane, then look at where the four mapped subsquares are on the torus. The

eigenvalues are 1, 0, 0, 0. So when we partition the unit torus into four subsquares,

Arnold's cat map sends one-fourth of a subsquare to each subsquare.

We ran our procedure 100 times with 106 pseudorandomly generated points

(uniformly) and saw the results listed in table 13-2.


135









Abstract of Dissertation Presented to the Graduate School
of the University of Florida in Partial Fulfillment of the
Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy

USING ULAM'S METHOD TO TEST FOR MIXING

By

Aaron Carl Smith

August 2010

Chair: Philip Boyland
Major: Mathematics

Ulam's method is a popular technique to discretize and approximate a continuous

dynamical system. We propose a statistical test using Ulam's method to evaluate the

hypothesis that a dynamical system with a measure-preserving map is weak-mixing.

The test statistic is the second largest eigenvalue of a Monte Carlo stochastic matrix that

approximates a doubly-stochastic Ulam matrix of the dynamical system. This eigenvalue

leads to a mixing rate estimate. Our approach requires only one experiment while the

most common method to evaluate the hypothesis, decay of correlation, requires iterated

experiments. Currently, time of computation determines how many Monte Carlo points

to use; we present a method based on desired accuracy and risk tolerance to decide

how many points should be used. Our test has direct application to mixing relatively

incompressible fluids, such as water and chocolate. Stirring protocols of compression

resistant fluids may be modeled with measure-preserving maps. Our test evaluates if a

stirring protocol mixes and can compare mixing rates between different protocols.









(n-1)2 1+l
P = Y.YkP(k)
k= 1

12.2.6 DS-Matrices Arising from Unitary Matrices

Every unitary matrix can be used to create a ds-matrix.

Proposition 12.2.14. If U is a unitary matrix and P is the matrix such that


P, = Uj ,

then P is a ds-matrix.

Proof. We must show that P is a nonnegative matrix whose columns and rows all sum

to one. By how we define P, P is a nonnegative matrix. Since U is unitary,


I= U*U.


So if







is a column vector of U, then


1 =< U, U< > uy2


Thus PT is a stochastic matrix. If we repeat this argument with


I = UU*,


we see that the rows of P sum to one, thus P is a stochastic matrix. Hence P is a

ds-matrix. O









n=2: This case follows from the previous example. Every 2 x 2 ds-matrix is of the

form

= p l-p
1-p p

for some p E [0, 1].

n=3: This case follows from a previous counterexample. The matrix

1/3 1/3 1/3
P= 1/2 1/6 1/3

1/6 1/2 1/3

is a 3 x 3 ds-matrix that is not symmetric.

n > 3: Let P denote the matrix in the n = 3 case, Ik be the k x k identity matrix, and

Ok be the k x k matrix with zero for all entries. Then for each n > 3,

P 03
03 /n-3

is an n x n ds-matrix that is not symmetric. D

As n increases, the degrees of freedom for n x n ds-matrices increases and the

ways that a ds-matrix can deviate from being symmetric grow. Due to this and the

observation that randomly generated ds-matrices are symmetric less frequently for large

n, we propose the following conjecture.

Conjecture 3.1.12. If M, is the set of n x n matrices whose rows and columns sum to

one, g : M, -> R"2, II M IIF= I g(M) 112 for all M E Mn, DSn, is the set of n x n ds-matrices,

and S, is the set of symmetric n x n ds-matrices, then

lim p(g(Sn)) = 0
n-oo

in the measure space (g(DSn), B, /) where p is Lebesque measure.









Lemma 9.2.6. If (X, E, /p) is a measure space and A, B, C c E, then

/p(A)- p(B)| < I<(AAB) and

p(A n B) p(A n C)| < p(BAC)

Proof. For the first inequality,


p/(A) p(B)


= p(A n Bc)

= I (A n BC)

< 1p(A n Bc)

< (AAB).


- p(A n B) p(A n B) p(Ac n B)

p-(Ac n B)

p(Ac n B)


Now the second inequality,

I|(A n B) p(A n C)|


p((A n B) n (A n C)c) p((A n B) n (A n C))|

Ip((A n B) n (Ac U Cc)) p((Ac U B) n (A n C))|

p(A n B n Cc) p(A n Bc n C)

(A n B n Cc) +p(A n Bc n C)

p(B n Cc) + (Bc n C)

p(BAC).


Hence we get both inequalities.

Our next theorem gives a criteria for weak-mixing.
Theorem 9.2.7. If
1. {FTk }=1 is a sequence of a-algebras of D.
2. Fk C k+lVk
3. |Fk < oo Vk
4. 7 = a(U 1 k)
5. (D, F,,, p) is a probability space


103









{D(,ki}1, u(x) defines a probability distribution, and u o f is continuous then

Pnk(Uk(X)) f*(u) in L1 as k oo

Proof. Since u defines a probability distribution on (D, B), uk(X) defines a probability
distribution and uk is a probability vector. The matrix Pnk is a doubly-stochastic matrix so

UkPnk is a probability vector. Thus Pnk(uk(x)) defines a probability distribution function on
(D, B). If

P(x A) = u d/u for all A B,

then

Su o fdp= P(f(x) e Dkj)
nk
= P(x e Dk)P(f(x) e Dk X Dki)
i= 1
nk(/ ud)P

i= 1
nk
= (/ uk dp)pU
i= 1

=/ Pk(Uk(x))dli.

It follows that


SPk(uk(x))d= J u o fdp/ for all ki.

Furthermore


/ P~ (uk(x))d = u o fd/p for all A e Sk for all k.
JA JA


100









CHAPTER 6
PARTITION REFINEMENTS

6.1 Equal Measure Refinements

If we know P and we refine our partition of D, what does P tell us about our new

Markov shift? Intuitively, we expect the refined subshift of finite type to be a better

approximation to (D, B, p, f). It is unreasonable to use a Markov shift from an n-partition

to approximate a continuous dynamical system if the Markov shift does not provide

information about new Markov shifts formed after refining the partition. Here we present

the relationship between n-partition Markov shifts and nk-partition Markov shifts where

the later is a refinement of the former. Partition each Di into k connected subsets,
k

a=l
1
nk

Each subset has equal measure. We will refer to such refinements as k-refinements.

Notation 6.1.1. We will use the following notation when referring to refinement of

partitions.

1. Let P, be our stochastic matrix before refinement with entries py,


py = p(f(x) E DI x e D,).

2. Let Pnk be our stochastic matrix after refinement with entries pij,





Arrange the rows and columns of Pnk with the order


1112...14k2122...2k...nin2...7nk.


With this arrangement we can represent Pnk as a block matrix where each entry of P,

corresponds to a k x k block of Pnk-









Table 13-2. Arnold's Cat Map
Number of States Average A2(P) I Typical p-value of X2
4 0.00 0.00
16 0.09 0.00
64 0.45 0.00
256 0.45 0.00
1024 0.45 0.00
4096 0.49 1.00


A typical P for four states is

0.2507 0.2496 0.2501 0.2496

0.2513 0.2484 0.2505 0.2497
PM
0.2489 0.2511 0.2500 0.2500

0.2506 0.2504 0.2499 0.2491

max(IP P|) 0.0016

|A2(P)I 0.0016

Typical significance levels will conclude that we used enough points when

n = 4,16, 64, 256, 1024,

but m = 106 is not sufficient when n = 4096.

13.3 The Sine Flow Map (parameter 8/5)

The sine flow map is a well studied area preserving nonlinear map on the torus.


f(x, y) = (x+ Tsin(27ry), y+ Tsin(27r(x+ Tsin(27ry))))

When T = 8/5, f is chaotic, it is conjectured that f is chaotic when T = 4/5 [19]. For a

dynamical system to be chaotic it must be topologically mixing; that is to say, for any two

open sets A, B c D, there exists an N such that

f"(A) n B 0


136









If we relabel the subscripts of Di we can get

1/2 1/

1/2 1/
0 C

0 C


0

0

1/2

1/2


and


0.5012

0.5006

0

0


0.4988

0.4994

0

0


0

0

0.5000

0.5010


0

0

0.5000

0.4990


The graph of our Markov shifts has two disjoint subgraphs, hence our subshifts of finite

type are not ergodic. Typical significance levels will conclude that we used enough

points when

n = 4, 16, 64, 256, 1024, but m = 106 is not sufficient when n = 4096.


142










6.2 A Special Class of Refinements

Now we look at a special class of k-partitions. These partitions are interesting

because the eigenvalue multiset after refinement contains the eigenvalue multiset before

refinement.

Definition 6.2.1. If Pnk is a k-refinement of Pn such that for every block matrix


PJil PilJk



PikJl PikJk

there exists a k x k ds-matrix Dy such that


P/ill PilJk

pyDy = ,

Pik ... P1kk

then Pnk is called a Dk -refinement matrix of P,.

Definition 6.2.2. If Pnk is a k-refinement of Pn such that for every block matrix


Philj PilJk



Pikl P1kk

there exists a k x k permutation matrix S such that


PJli PilJk



PikJl PJk

then Pnk is called a Sk-refinement matrix of P,.

Remark 6.2.3. Every Sk-refinement is a Dk-refinement and if we take a sequence of

Sk-refinements then the matrices will become sparse.









BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH

Aaron Carl Smith was born in Portland, Indiana, and grew up in Ashland, Oregon.

After serving in the United States Army, Aaron used the Montgomery GI bill to attend the

University of Florida. He is married to the most beautiful woman in the world, Bridgett

Smith; they have a wonderful daughter, Akiko.


145









Notice that the function inside the integral is the kernel of a gamma distribution.

d (P( < k)) F((N )a) k-(1 k)N1
dk F(Na)F(a)

This is the probability distribution function of a beta(a,Na) random variable. By the

independence of C1, c2,..., cN, we have the result. O

Remark 12.2.9. If P is an n x n ds-matrix then P's convex combination may or may not

be unique.

Proof. Here we look at two examples that justify the statement.

1. If P is a permutation matrix, then the only convex coefficient that is not zero is

the coefficient corresponding to P. So permutation matrices have unique convex

coefficients.
1/n... 1/n
2. If P = then the convex vector (1/n! ... 1/n!) gives P.

1/n... 1/n
If Pk is the permutation matrix corresponding to

i- i k mod n,

gcd(k, n) = 1,

take the convex combination where powers of Pk have coefficients 1/n and all

other coefficients are zero. This convex combination gives P also.

So some ds-matrices result from unique convex combinations and some do not. D

It would be nice to be able to extend a set of observed ds-matrices whenever

obtaining observations is difficult or expensive; Murali Rao [16] created a way to extend

a set of observations.


125









USING ULAM'S METHOD TO TEST FOR MIXING


By

AARON CARL SMITH


















A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL
OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT
OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF
DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY

UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA


2010









2.2 Markov Shifts


Definition 2.2.1. A vector


P= (pl p2... n)

is a probability vector if


0< pi <1,

for all i and


P+ P2 ... -Pn = 1.

Definition 2.2.2. A matrix is a stochastic matrix if every row is a probability vector.

Notation 2.2.3. Let


Xn ={(xi) : i N, xi e {1,2, ..., n}} or

Xn ={(xi) : c Z, x e {1,2 .. n}}.


Notice that, e {1, 2,..., n} instead ofx, e {0, 1, 2,..., n 1}. We do this for ease of

numerical indexing.

Definition 2.2.4. Subsets of Xn of the form


{(x,) e Xn : X = a, X2 = a2, ...,Xk = ak

for a given a,, a, ..., ak are called cylinder sets.

If En is the o-algebra generated by cylinder sets, p is a length n probability vector

and P is a stochastic matrix such that pP = p, then (Xn, En, (p, P)) defines a globally

consistent measure space where the measure of {{x,} e Xn : xl = a, x2 = a2, ...Xk

ak} is (Pa1)(Pa1a2...Pak- ak)"

The measure of a cylinder set uses both p and P.









Proof. The matrix P is a ds-matrix, hence (1/n, 1/n,..., 1/n) is a stationary distribution.

(1/n, 1/n, ..., 1/n)P = (1/n, 1/n, ..., /n).

It follows that

P2 =P.


Since P is an orthogonal projection, all eigenvalues are 0 or 1. All columns and all rows

are equal so rank(P) = 1, thus only one eigenvalue does not equal zero. Since the rank

of a matrix is equal to the rank of its Jordan canonical form, the last part of the lemma

follows. O

3.2 Additional Properties of Stochastic Matrices

Since we are using an eigenvalue of a stochastic matrix as a test statistic, the

probability distribution of eigenvalues is important. We may use the next few results

to eliminate some measures from consideration as the probability distribution of A2(P)

when we have prior knowledge about P.

Proposition 3.2.1. If P is an n x n stochastic matrix then A2 + ... + n [-1, n 1].

Notice that the upper bound is achieved when P is the identity matrix and the lower
010
bound is achieved when P = 0 0 1

100

Proof. The matrix P is stochastic so all entries are on [0, 1], thus trace(P) e [0, n].

A + A2 + ... + An = trace(P) so A1 + A2 + ... + An e [0, n]. Since A1 = 1, A2 + ... An E

[-1, n- 1].

Proposition 3.2.2. If P is an n x n stochastic matrix then det(P) e [-1, 1].

The upper and lower bounds are achieved by permutation matrices.









Proof. Proof by counterexample:
Let


4/33
3/11

1/33

19/33


5/33

4/33
20/33

4/33


5/11

10/33
2/11

2/33


3/11

10/33
2/11

8/33


The eigenvalues of P4 are approximately

1, -0.246, -0.044 0.167/, -0.044 + 0.167/,

so the magnitude of P4's eigenvalues are approximately

1, 0.246, 0.173, 0.173,

A4,2 M -0.246.

Using the refinement equations we see that


The eigenvalues of P2 are {1, -1/3}, A2,2


1/3 2/3
2/3 1/3

= -1/3. It follows that A4,2 < IA2,2


When we take a refinement, what do the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of Pn tell

us about the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of Pnk? For Pn to be of value, it needs to
capture the useful information from Pnk, if it does not, then Pn has no hope of being

useful in making a decision about (D, B, /, f). Since we are using an eigenvalue as

a test statistic, we present the next results describing the relationship between the

eigenvalues of Pn and Pnk-

Theorem 6.1.7. If Pnk is a k-refinement matrix of Pn and


v2... Vn ... Vn)


( V1 ... V1 V2 ...









it follows that the expected value exists. By the strong law of large numbers, and that the

data points are independent and indentically distributed, converges to its
mij +... + m,
expected value. O

Remark 11.1.4. When we use y as a test statistic, we let
mlj + ... + mnj

Mu = 0 whenever m, = 0.
mj + ... mn

We do this to prevent problems with zero denominators when


f(x) i D

for all data points. By construction, data points start in each Di, but it is possible to have

a sample where no points land in a particular partition set.

Theorem 11.1.5. If {m } are our counts from our Ulam matrix and mi = m2 = ... mn,

then

V( m- )<1 p2
mlj + ... + mnj

Proof.

M( )2 < 1.
mlj +... + mnj

Take the expected value,


E(( m )2) < 1
mlj +... + mn

Subtract the term needed to make the left hand side equal the variance,

E(( m -)2) (E( my ))2 < 1 (E( m
mlj +... + mn mj + ... + m mij ... + mn

V( M )<1 p2
Sv v...

So we have an upper bound for the variance of the quotient. D









for any constant c,


V(x) = E(x2) (E(x))2


whenever E(x2) and E(x) are finite, and


cov(x, y) = E(xy) E(x)E(y)


whenever E(xy), E(x), and E(xy) are finite.

Theorem 5.1.2. If P = (py) is a random stochastic matrix where py are identically

distributed then

1
E(py) = for all ij.
n

Proof. Since P is a stochastic matrix and taking an expected value is a linear operation,


n
E(p )
j-i1


nE(py) = 1


E(pu)


Thus the statement holds. C

Theorem 5.1.3. If P = (py) is a random n x n stochastic matrix where py are identically

distributed and N E N, then

1 1
< E(p') <
n n


where p = (PU)N.


Proof. First we prove that E(pN) <

For any stochastic matrix P,


... + Pin = 1


Pil + Pi2









than the consequences of type II errors. Therefore it takes strong evidence to reject

Ho. In general, we cannot simultaneously control the type I error risk and the type II

error risk; by default we control the risk of a type I error. The maximum chance we are

willing to risk a type I error is called the significance level. To conduct proper hypothesis

testing, one must set the significance level before gathering observations. After setting

the significance level, one must establish what statistic to use (called the test statistic);

what set of statistics results in reject Ho, what set of statistics results in fail to reject Ho

(the boundary between these two sets is called critical valuess).

For our problem, P is a stochastic Ulam matrix that approximates P, a doubly-stochastic

matrix (ds-matrix). We will make our decision based on the following criteria.

1. Reject Ho in favor of Ha2 if I A2(P) I< c2 where c2 is a critical value.

2. Reject Ho in favor of Ha if I A2(P) 1 I> ci and I A2(P) I> c2 where cl is a critical

value.

3. Fail to reject Ho otherwise.

Since we are more concerned with a type I error, rejecting Ho is unlikely when

observing random events. To set the critical values we must have an estimate of the

probability distribution of the test statistic. Probability distibutions of ds-matrices are

difficult to work with, the Monte Carlo chapter provides ways to approximate probability

distributions of test statistics.

1.2 Testing Procedure

Notation 1.2.1. Let
-1 1-
n n

1 1
-n n-
and I be the identity matrix. We will denote disjoint unions with -.

1. Set the significance level.
































I dedicate this to Bridgett for her support while I pursued my goals.









CHAPTER 13
EXAMPLES

Here we demonstrate our procedure on well known maps on the unit square. We

partitioned the unit square into half-open subsquares and set m = 106 points. The points

were uniformly distributed pseudorandom numbers generated with MATLAB's rand

function on default settings. A goal was for the points to be approximately independent

identically distributed uniform((0, 1) x (0, 1)) random variables. The number of partition

sets is a power of four since we are partitioning the unit square into subsquares,

n = 4,16, 64,256, 1024, 4096.

When a map is defined on the standard torus, we treat the surface as the unit square

with the edges identified. For each map we present one observed matrices when

n = 4 since this is the easiest case to interpret; we omit the matrices for n =

16, 64, 256, 1024, 4096. We present the average observed IA21. Under the assumption

that our conjectured test for when the data points are sufficient, we present typical

results from our x2-test; the p-values are presented rather than giving the results for a

particular significance level, this is done to allow the reader to make conclusions using

their own criteria.

13.1 The Reflection Map

The reflection map defined by

0 1 x
f(x, y) (Y, x),
1 0 y

reflects the unit square over the line x = y. The disk


{(x,y) : (x 1/2)2 + (y- 1/2)2 < 1/4}

is mapped to itself and has measure r/4, thus the reflection map is not ergodic.


133









Taking the reduced row echelon form of the system of equations after including the


refinement equations (pivots are in bold font) we get


1 0

L 0

L 0

L 0

L 0

1 0

1 0

) 1

) 0

) 0

) 0

) 0


) -1
.-1




) 1


11
1 1

) 0

) 0

) 0

) 0


S 0

) 0

) 1

1 1

) 0

0

S 0


S-2p

1

2p

1

2p

0

1 -2p

0

0

0

0

0


From the twelve equations the reduced row echelon form has eight pivots and four

zero-rows. Thus including the refinement equations reduces one degree of freedom.

The zero matrix is not a solution to the system of equations, thus the solution set is

still not a vector space. If we convert the reduced row echelon form to matrices, we see

that a solution is


0

2p

0

1 2p


0

1 2p

0

2p









After taking an n-partition, f maps some portion of state i to state. Let P = (p,) be
the matrix where

P (x C Dj A f-'(x) E Di)
i '(x) p(x e Dlf -(x) E ID) = p(f(x) E Dlx Ce ID).
S I(f-(x) C Di)

Our measure p is a probability measure on D so by construction P is a stochastic matrix
with pi, = p(f(x) E D jx e D,) and j iP, = 1, p, is a conditional probability.
When establishing an n-partition the physical action for the mixing protocol on
the domain should be considered. If the domain is the unit disk and mixing protocol
acts in a circular manner, to check that regions closer and farther from the origin are
mixing we could partition the disk into rings with radii r, = rk = If the

domain is a rectangle and we are confident that the mixing protocol mixes horizontal
(vertical) sections, then we may partition the rectangle into n horizontal (vertical) smaller
rectangles to check that vertical (horizontal) regions mix. If we do not know about the
stirring protocol before partitioning, the partition should minimize subset diameter.









11.2 Other Criteria for When More Data Points Are Needed

Next, we propose alternative criteria for deciding if mini mi is too small.

1. When we generate P, we know that it approximates an n x n ds-matrix, thus

column sums should be close to one. If
n n n n

j=1 i= -1j= i=1

is significantly larger than zero then more points should be used.

2. Suppose we want to check how close P is to being ds with respect to a particular.

If the value of


1 1 1

1 1= (P I0

1 1 \1

differs significantly from zero, then more points should be used.

3. All ds-matrices have (1/n, 1/n,..., 1/n) as a stationary distribution so if P does not

have a strictly positive stationary distribution, more points should be used.

4. All ds-matrices have (1/n, 1/n,.... 1/n) as a stationary distribution so if
SI-n | < a, (1/n, 1/n, ..., 1/n)
sup < a, (1/n, :1 uP = u, a is a probability vector}

is far from one for all strictly positive stationary distributions of P, then more points

should be used.


116









CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION

If we need to evaluate a stirring protocol's ability to mix an incompressible fluid in a

closed system, but cannot do so analytically, Ulam's method provides a Markov shift that

approximates the protocol. Since the fluid is incompressible, the stirring protocol defines

a measure preserving map where the volume of a region defines its measure. For a

function to be a stirring protocol, the function must be volume (measure) preserving.

Otherwise a closed system could have more or less mass after mixing than before.

Let D be the incompressible fluid we wish to mix (D is our domain), D is a bounded

and connected subset of Rk, k e N, B is the Borel o-algebra of D,and p is the uniform

probability measure rescaledd Lebesque measure) of (D, B). The function f : D -> D is

defined by the given stirring protocol. Our dynamical system is (D, B, p, f).

If a stirring protocol mixes, then the concentration of an ingredient will become

constant as the protocol is iterated. When a solution is mixed, the amount of an

ingredient in a region becomes proportional to the volume of the region. If we partition

the fluid into n parts, we may use an n x n stochastic matrix to represent how the stirring

protocol moves an ingredient; if the protocol mixes, then the matrix will become a rank

one matrix with all rows being equal as the protocol is iterated (rows of the rank one

matrix correspond to the measure of partition sets). When the partition is a Markov

partition, we may use powers of the matrix to represent how iterations of the stirring

protocol move an ingredient; powers of a stochastic matrix converge to a rank one

matrix if and only if the second largest eigenvalue is less than one in magnitude. Since

the fluid is partitioned into n sets, it is natural to partition the fluid into sets with volume
. When we partition a stirring protocol in this manner the approximating matrix and its
n
transpose will be stochastic.

The stochastic matrix that approximates the stirring protocol defines a Markov shift,

so the Markov shift approximates and models how stirring iterations move particles from










The next conjecture provides a hypothesis test to check if mini mi is large enough

after running Ulam method. The conjecture is based on the X2-test where

(observed expected)2
expected

is the test statistic. Here we insert the entries of P for the observed values, 1/n for

the expected values in the denominator. Since we wish to check if our data points are

insufficient and P is a ds-matrix, we insert

my
mli +... + mnj

for the expected values in the numerator. In the chapter of examples, we assume this

conjecture is correct and give the results of this test.

Conjecture 11.1.6. If {m,} are our counts from our Ulam matrix and


mi, m2, ..., mn


are the number of points in


D1,D2, ..., D1


before applying our map, then

n n
n n-( m, mU )2 21)
S J m j i ... m m, ... in ( 2
i=1 j=1

and this may be used as a test statistic for the hypothesis test

1. Ho : mi is insufficient for some i.

2. Ha : mi is sufficient for all i.

Where we will reject Ho in favor of Ha if
n n
n W ( -- m ------ y -- )2
j + ...+ m, mil + ... min

is smaller than a critical value.


115









Theorem 6.1.2. If ((1/n,..., 1/n), P,) is the Markov shift that approximates (D, B, /, f)

after an n-partition, and Pnk is the stochastic matrix after a k-refinement, then


((1/nk,..., 1/nk), Pnk)


is a Markov shift and

k k

=31 a=l

We will refer to these equations as the refinement equations.

Proof. After refining, Pnk is an nk x nk ds-matrix so ((1/nk,..., 1/nk), Pnk) is a Markov

shift. Now let's look at the refinement equations.

k k k k





k = nk f (x) e D Ax e Di')
==1 a=l


/3- a1l nk
k k
= nk((f(x)E ~Ax Di,)
v ( Ax CD,



3=1 aa=






li(f(x) E D Ax E Di)
=kk


1

nk/(f (x) E D, Ax E Di)
(x D Ax i)
= kp.(


Thus we get the refinement equations. O








Proof.


P(k <1 P P |) = P(k <11 EJE-1- EJE-1 ||)

=P(k <11 E(J- J)E-1 II)

< P(k < E I J 1 E-1 II).

Multiply both sides by negative one and add one to both sides,

1 P(k <11 P P ) > 1 P(k <11 E IIII J- IIII E-1 II).

By the properties of probability measures we see that

P(l P < k) > P(l E II J-J I E-1 < k)
k
P(l| P P |< k) > P(ll J- J ||< ).
II E I II E-1 I

When E is unitary and we have the 2-norm or the Frobenius norm

P(k <1 P P |) = P(k <1 EJE-1 EJE-1 |)

= P(k <1I E(J- J)E-1 II)

= P(k <1 J- J |).

Thus both statements hold. D








Taking absolute values of both sides, we get


det(P) A =| ...An =| A2 | n .

By how we defined Ai,

SIn-1<1 A2 I A... An I<1 A2 In-1

Thus

I An I< n / det(P) I < A2 .

This gives us both inequalities. O

Notice that I An 1= "-/ det(P) I = A2 I when P is a permutation matrix or P.
Corollary 3.2.8. If P is an n x n stochastic matrix then

max ce() det(P) } n-

Proposition 3.2.9. If P is an n x n stochastic matrix then for any matrix norm induced by
a vector norm

S<11 P II

Proof. One is the largest eigenvalue for any stochastic matrix. D

The identity matrix achieves the lower bound.
Proposition 3.2.10. If P is an n x n stochastic matrix, then

|I P I| =

II P 12 = 1

I P |1 =1










9 CONVERGENCE TO AN OPERATOR ................

9.1 Stirring Protocols as Operators and Operator Eigenfunctions
9.2 Convergence Results ......................

10 DECAY OF CORRELATION ......................

10.1 Comparing Our Test to Decay of Correlation .
10.2 A Conjecture About Mixing Rate .

11 CRITERIA FOR WHEN MORE DATA POINTS ARE NEEDED .

11.1 Our Main Criteria for When More Data Points Are Needed .
11.2 Other Criteria for When More Data Points Are Needed .

12 PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS OF DS-MATRICES .


12.1 Conditional Probability Distributions .
12.2 Approximating Probability Distributions .
12.2.1 The Dealer's Algorithm ............
12.2.2 Full Convex Combinations ..........
12.2.3 Reduced Convex Combinations .
12.2.4 The DS-Greedy Algorithm ..........
12.2.5 Using the Greedy DS-Algorithm .
12.2.6 DS-Matrices Arising from Unitary Matrices .

13 EXAM PLES .. .. .. .. .. .. .

13.1 The Reflection Map .................
13.2 Arnold's Cat Map ...................
13.3 The Sine Flow Map (parameter 8/5) .
13.4 The Sine Flow Map (parameter 4/5) ........
13.5 The Baker's Map ...................
13.6 The Chirikov Standard Map (parameter 0) .

REFERENCES ............. .. ..........

BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH ...................


. 1 17
. 120
. 120
. 123
. 12 6
. 128
. 130
. 1 3 1


133


. 13 3
. 13 5
. 13 6
. 137
. 13 8
. 14 0

. 14 3

. 14 5


. 92
. 97

. 107

. 107
. 110


112

112
116

117









Table 13-3. The Sine Flow Map (parameter 8/5)
Number of States Average I A2(P) I Typical p-value of X2
4 0.2042 0.000
16 0.2068 0.000
64 0.3539 0.000
256 0.5198 0.000
1024 0.6927 0.000
4096 0.7427 1.000


whenever n > N.

We ran our procedure 100 times with 106 pseudorandomly generated points

(uniformly) and saw the results listed in table 13-3.

Typical significance levels will conclude that we used enough points for

n = 4,16, 64, 256, 1024,

but m = 106 appears to be insufficient when n = 4096.

A typical P for four states is

0.1655 0.2341 0.2330 0.3673

0.2316 0.1656 0.3709 0.2318

0.2332 0.3691 0.1647 0.2331

0.3696 0.2326 0.2328 0.1650

|A2(P)| 0.2048


13.4 The Sine Flow Map (parameter 4/5)

Here we set the parameter of the sine flow map to 4/5.


f(x, y) = (x + (4/5) sin(27y), y + (4/5) sin(27r(x + (4/5) sin(27y))))

It is conjectured that this dynamical system is choatic.

We ran our procedure 100 times with 106 pseudorandomly generated points

(uniformly) and saw the results listed in table 13-4.


137











P log(P) < E(pinj. log(pi, )).
k k

Taking summations of both sides leads to

k k n n k k n n

EEI log( ) < EE pE E(pY lg(p,))
a= l /31 i=l j=1 a= 1 /=1 i=l j=1
n n k k n n
k 2log( ) < E( p ijl (p ))-
i= 1 j= 1 a= 1= 1 i= 1 j= 1

1
The formula for metric entropy has a negative sign, the formula for hnk includes n
nk
-1
multiply both sides by nk
nk


-1kknn

al E( 1 il ip og
a- 1 /3 1 i j 1


i=1 j=1

E(hnk) < -~pU log( )
i=1 j=1
n n n
E(hnk) < Py log(py) +
i=1 j=1 i


n n
n'6 log(k)
=1 j=1


Thus we get the bound.


E(hnk) < hn


Slog(k).











IfA = 1and / J then without loss on generality we may assume that < v, u >= 0.


It follows that

TPV =v.

Since TP has the same eigenvectors as P, we get the result. D

So we may use TP to describe the eigenvalues of P, furthermore A2(P) = A1(TP).
Next we look at how the singular values of TP compare to the eigenvalues of P.

Notation 3.2.14. If M is an n x m matrix, let 1 (M), 2,(M),...,. mn(m,n)(M) denote the
singular values of M;

71(M) > 72(M) > ... > min(m,n)(M).

Theorem 3.2.15. If P is an n x n stochastic matrix, then

IA2(P)| < 7l(TP) < 1.

Proof. Use an eigenvalue and singular value inequality [12] and our previous result,

|A2(P)| = AI(TP)| < a (TP).

The upperbound of one follows from a straight forward computation. O

If we are concerned about the stability of eigenvalues from our approximating
matrix, P, then we may use the eigenvalues of TP. If we do not trust the stability of

eigenvalues from either matrix, then we may use the first singular value of TP. Since
the first singular value of a matrix is very stable, o-( TP) is a better statistic when
eigenvalue stability is questionable. Unfortunately, the probability distribution of aoi(TP)
will likely differ from the probability distribution of |A2(P)|.









CHAPTER 7
PROBALISTIC PROPERTIES OF PARTITION REFINEMENTS

If we know P, of our n-partition and we apply a k-refinement, what do we expect of

Pnk? The matrix P, provides all of our knowledge of Pnk, so in this section we make the

assumption that for fixed i, the distribution of pij is identical for each a, 3.

7.1 Entries of a Refinement Matrix

First we look at probabilistic properties of the entries of a refinement matrix.

Theorem 7.1.1. If Pnk is a k-refinement matrix of Pn and the distribution of pinj is

identical for each a, 3, then


E(p.) =


Proof. The refinement matrix, Pnk, is a k-refinement matrix of Pn so k and Pn are known.
k k
S pj =
a= 13=1
k k

a= 13=1
k k

a= 13=1

The distribution of pi,. is identical for each a, 3, so


k2 E(pjl ) = kpu

E(p,^ = 6.


Thus we get the result. D

Theorem 7.1.2. If Pn is an n x n ds-matrix, Pnk is a k-refinement of P,, Pn = (p,), Pnk =

(pij), p,, are identically distributed of each fixed ij, then


E(p( ) < kq-2pq









1
4 minl
It follows that


P( P-P >e)< n2
F 4e2 minl
Both n and c are fixed before we sample, so


P-P 0
F

in probability as minli oo.

The previous theorem showed convergence in probability and gives insight into the

probability distribution of P. Our next theorem shows that


E( P -P )->0as min {mi} -oo.
F 1
So the next theorem implies the previous convergence result; we showed the last

theorem for its statement about the probability distribution.

Theorem 8.2.3. If P is an approximation of P generated by Ulam's method with a fixed

partition and the sample points are independent uniform random variables, then


E( P -P ) as min {mi} -oo.
ProoF 1e
Proof. By Jensen's inequality


(E( P ))2<


E( P-P )
n n

i=1 j=1
n n


n n
iZ Z v(P
i =1 j=1

/-1 j=1


p,)2)









5.2 Metric Entropy of Markov Shifts with Random Matrices

The next two theorems are important for estimating the metric entropy of


(Xn, En, (1/n, ..., 1/n), P), fn)


when P is a random variable. The metric entropy of the dynamical system is


n nPu Iog(pj).
n n

i=1 j=1

Where we define


0 log(O) =0.


Theorem 5.2.1. If P = (py) is a random n x n stochastic matrix where py are identically

distributed and 0 < py almost surely then


E(log(p,)) < log n, and

--log(n) < E(p, log(py)).
n

Proof. First we will show the first inequality. Since f(x) = log x is a convex function on

(0, oo), Jensen's inequality tells us


E(- log py) < log E(py)

-E(log py) < -log-
n
-E(log pu) < log n

E(log py) > log n.


Now we will show the second inequality. Since f(x) = x log x is convex on (0, oo),

Jensen's inequality tells us that


E(py) log(E(pu)) < E(pu log(pu))
1 1
1 log( ) < E(pu log(pu))
n n









Theorem 6.2.4 (The Boyland Theorem). If Pn is a ds-matrix, Pnk is a Dk-refinement of

V1

V/2
Pn and v2 is an eigenvector of Pn with eigenvalue A, then


\vn


V1 ... V1 V2 ... V2 ... Vn ... Vn


is an eigenvector of Pnk with eigenvalue A.

Proof. For any is

n k n k
: Y Pl vo = V Y pwo
j= 1 j 11 31

The refinement matrix, Pnk, is a Dk-refinement of Pn so every row of the block matrix that

corresponds to p, sums to p,, thus

n k n
C lZ = vy p,
j= 1 =1 j 1

Since we are working with an eigenvector of Pn,

n k

j= 13=1

Hence the statement follows. O

Corollary 6.2.5. If Pn is a ds-matrix, Pnk is a Dk-refinement of Pn, then


I Aj(Pn)I < Aj(Pnk) I forallj < n,

I An(Pn) I > Ank(Pnk) I,

I det(Pn) I > det(Pnk)









If we take averages,


N-1
(f -'(A) n B)
i-0


)N-1
p(A)(B)| <1 (|I(BABk)| + |(AAAk)


I (f-'(Ak)n E

p (Ak)P(Bk) -


I|(BBAk) I(AAAk)
SN-1
Y( I/(f-i(Ak))n Bk)
N


i=(
I p(Ak)(Bk)


o"(Uc TFk) so there exists KA, KBe, KABE e N such that

I|(BABk)| < e/4 whenever k > KA,

Ip(AAAk)I < e/4 whenever k > KBe


I (Ak)p(Bk)


ip(A)ip(B)I < e/4 whenever k > KABe-


Thus


N-1
S i(f-'(A) n B)
i=O


N-1
/ (f-'(Ak)n Bk)
i=-


/i(Ak)/(Bk)|)


whenever k > max{KA6, KBe, KABe}. Now,


I N-1
lim p (f-'(A) n B)
i= 1


0 for all A, B e Fk.


Hence there exists a K e N such that


N-1
- I/p(f -(Ak) Bk)
i=-


p(Ak)P(Bk)I < e/4 whenever N > K.


105


k) (Ak)P(Bk)|

p (A)/p(B) )


Let c > 0 be given, F.o


/l(Ak)P(Bk)


3e/4


p (A)/.(B) .


p(A)/p(B) I


p(A)/(B)|








then we look to see if


nk
nkyPkl (X)
i=1
approximates a nonconstant stationary distribution of f*.
Theorem 9.1.5. If u e L'(D, B, p), {{rD,} ki nk is a sequence of nk-partitions where

{IDk li ) 1 is an kl -refinement of {Dki 1 (nk nk+), then
nk


I Uk+ 1dl


SUkdip.


I Uk+ldl,


nk+1
-/ nrk+ [
k+ 1
~nk+ 1 [ u
i=1
nk+l
nk 1 ,C

i 1 ,Cc
/,
i=1 :C



- / udi/

j ukdlp.


udp]1 (x)d/


dp] /


[


,(x)dp


udp] -
nk+l


udpl

udl


We present the next proposition since the result holds for f* and stochastic
matrices.
Proposition 9.1.6. (D, B, p, f) is a dynamical system, f is measure preserving, then
u = 1 is an eigenfunction of f* with eigenvalue one.


Proof.








CHAPTER 9
CONVERGENCE TO AN OPERATOR
9.1 Stirring Protocols as Operators and Operator Eigenfunctions
Notation 9.1.1. If (D, B, p, f) is a dynamical system, f is measure preserving, let f*
denote the operator

f : L'(D, B,) L'(D, B,)

f*(u)= uo f.

For our problem, f represents our stirring protocol, u is a probability distribution
function that measures the concentration of an ingredient before stirring and u o fk is a
probability distribution function that measures the concentration of the ingredient after
running the protocol k times. If our stirring protocol mixes, then for any continuous initial
concentration of our ingredient, the concentration should become constant as we run the
stirring protocol. Mathematically we represent this situation as


J u o fkd/ -> p(A) for all A B as k o.

For mixing, we are concerned with u e L(ID, B, p) that define a probability
distribution function on D, i.e. u > 0 and 11 u 1= 1. When u is constant, the
concentration of the ingredient is constant and the ingredient is mixed. The function f*
is a Perron-Frobenius operator defined by our stirring protocol. Stationary distributions
for a stochastic matrix are left eigenvectors with eigenvalue one, we want to look at
u e L(ID, B, p) that define stationary distributions for f*. We shall see that P is a
Galerkin projection of f*.
If u is a nonconstant nonnegative eigenfunction for f* with A = 1 that defines a
probability distribution function, then when we stir an ingredient with initial distribution u,
the concentration of the ingredient does not change. Since u is nonconstant, our stirring
protocol is not mixing.









is to have the distribution


P(|A2(P) = 1)= 1

P(|A2(P)| = t)= Oif t 1.

We cannot reject Ho in favor of Ha2 if we use this distribution, so hopefully this is not
the correct distribution. Let's look at having |A2(P)| = 1 as a mode of the distribution.
1. Uniform distribution: All values on [0, 1] are a mode of the distribution.


g(t) = 1[o0,1](t)

2. Beta distribution: To have t = 1 be a mode we must set a > 1, = 1.

gal(t) = ata-11[o,1](t)

3. Triangle distribution: The mode of the distribution is a so set a = 1.

ga(t) = 2tl[,1](t)

If a = 1, = 1, then the beta distribution gives us the uniform distribution; if
a = 2, = 1, then the beta distribution gives us the triangle distribution distribution
with mode of one. The beta family of distributions includes the uniform distribution and
the triangle distribution with mode at one. So we propose using the beta distribution with
a > 1, = 1.

gal(t) = ata-11[o,1](t).

The beta distribution provides the additional advantage that it is an exponential family
of distributions. When a > 1, / = 1 and a significance level is set, the critical value
increases as a increases. If possible, before evaluating our stirring protocol, we should
look at several stirring patterns in the same class as f and use maximum likelihood
estimates or method of moments to estimate a. If A2 is a uniformly distributed random


118








Theorem 9.2.1 (A martingale convergence theorem). [15] If,, F, T,... is a sequence of
a-algebras satisfying F c F2 c ..., = = -(U lTFk) and Z is integrable, then

E(Z Fk) E(Z 1F,) with probability one.

The next theorem gives us convergence of uk to u when S, = B. Thus it is
important to refine partitions such that the refinements generate the Borel o-algebra in
the limit.
Theorem 9.2.2. If u e L1(D, B, p), {{Dki } Inki is a sequence of nk-partitions where

{IDk+i}1 is an -refinement of Dki, 1, nklnk+ and S, = B, then for a given E D
nk

Uk(X) -> u(x) as k oo in p.

Proof. Here we use the previous martingale convergence theorem.

Uk(X)= E(u(x) Sk) E(u(x)|S) = E(u|B).

Since u is B-measureable, E(u1B) = u. Thus uk(X) u(x). D

Since we are working with a sequence of refinement partitions, uk(X) is contained
in the set of simple functions over {Dk +li,}1 Hence Uk+l(x) is no worse of an
approximation of u(x) than Uk(X).
Notation 9.2.3. If u e L1(D, B, p), (D, B, /, f) is a p-measure preserving dynamical sys-
tem, {{IDki I n =1 is a sequence of nk-partitions, and {Dk+li}+1 /s a nk -refinement of
nk
{Dk,}i 1, let Uk R1Xnk be the vector where

(Ek)i = udp.

So the entries of Uk correspond to the coefficients of uk (x) (the coefficients of our
Galerkin projection of u onto the simple functions over {Dki,} 1). Let Pk, be the nk x nk









If we set up these equations as a system of equations and take the reduced row

echelon form (pivots are in bold font) we get


1 0 0

S 1 0

S 1 0

1 1 -

0 0

. -1 1

. -1 1

) 0 0


0 -1 1

0 0 1

1 0 0

1 0 1

0 1 0

0 0 -1

-1 1 -1

0 0 0


Notice that from the eight equations the reduced row echelon form has seven pivots

and one zero-row.

The zero matrix is not a solution to the system of equations, thus the solution set is

not a vector space. If we convert the reduced row echelon form back to matrices, we see

that a solution is


0 0

0 0

0 1

1 0


This matrix added to any linear combination of the following matrices is a solution to

the system of equations.

1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

-1 0 1 0 -1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 -1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1 0

0 1 -1 0 1 -1 0 0 0 1 -1 0


1 0

) 1

L 0

) 1

L 0

) -1

) 0

) 0








Conjecture 10.2.1. For any measure preserving dynamical system (D, B, p, f) that is
strong-mixing with an n-partition

II Pk P lF< (k) -P liF and
IA2(P)k < I,2(P(k)) .

If these conjectures are correct and the dynamical system is strong-mixing, then
our weak-mixing rate estimate converges faster than the rate that the dynamical system
strong-mixes. That is to say

n -) A,(P) N-" -> 0 faster than f strong-mixes.










Therefore


N-1

I ~p(f'-(A) n B) (A)p(B)| < e whenever N > K.
i=

Thus we get the result. O


106































2010 Aaron Carl Smith









Definition 2.2.5. If P is a stochastic matrix and p is a probability vector such that

S= pP, then p is called a stationary distribution of P.
Definition 2.2.6. Let f, : E, Z,, f,((xi)) = (x, +) then f, is called the shift map.

The shift map is a (p, P)-measure preserving map.
Remark 2.2.7. If pj = 0 for some j then the measure of {(x,) e X, : Xk = j} is zero;

without loss of generality say that pj > 0 for allj c {1, 2,..., n}. Otherwise if pj = 0 then

the set a sequences with xk = Pj for some k has zero measure.
Definition 2.2.8. The dynamical system (X,, E,, (p, P), fn) is called a Markov shift,

with (i, P) as the Markov measure. IfXn = {(x,) :i e N,x, e {1, 2,..., n}} then it is a
one-sided Markov shift. IfXn = {(x,) : ie Z,, i {1,2,..., n}} then it is a two-sided

Markov shift.

Our goal is to use (X,, Zn, (p, P), fn) to approximate (D, B, /, f). If we look at a point
x e D, iterate f, and let aN = / where fN(x) e Di, (p, P) gives the probability distribution
of cylinder sets. For our mixing problem an element of X, represents the movement of
an ingredient particle while stirring, so we say that (X,, Z,, (P, P), f,) is a one-sided shift.

In the Doubly-Stochastic Matrices section, we will show that p = (1/n, 1/n,..., 1/n) is

a stationary distribution for any n x n ds-matrix. For brevity we will let (p, P) represent
Markov shifts.

With Markov shifts, weak-mixing is equivalent to strong-mixing [9], so we will refer

to ((1/n, 1/n, 1/n,..., 1/n), P) as mixing or not mixing. Since our Markov shift is only an
approximation of (D, B, p, f), we may accept hypotheses of weak-mixing and not make

statements of strong-mixing when weak-mixing is accepted. Later we will show why

((1/n, 1/n, 1/n,..., 1/n), P) is a reasonable approximation of (D, B, p, f).
1. If ((1/n, 1/n, 1/n,..., 1/n), P) is not ergodic, we will fail to reject the hypothesis that

(D, B, p, f) is not ergodic and not weak-mixing.









Markov partiition, then the two measures are equivalent. One must decide if the sample

size is sufficient when using a Monte Carlo technique, we propose using a modified

chi-squared test to evaluate sufficiency after building the the approximating matrix.

Statistics requires probability distributions of observations, several statistical and Monte

Carlo methods of distribution estimation are given.

1.1 Hypotheses for Testing

The hypotheses for testing are

1. Ho: (D, B, f) is not ergodic (and hence not mixing).

2. Ha : (D, B, f) is ergodic but not weak-mixing.

3. Ha2 : (D, B, p, f) is weak-mixing (and hence ergodic).

We will define ergodic, weak-mixing and strong-mixing in the Ergodic Theory and

Markov Shifts chapter. We refer to Ho as the null hypothesis, Ha and Ha2 are called

alternative hypotheses. The procedure we present does not prove or disprove that

(D, B, j, f) is ergodic or weak-mixing, it provides a method to decide to accept or reject

hypotheses. We use logical arguments of the form

If statement A is correct, then statement B is correct or

If statement B is incorrect, then statement A is incorrect.

when proving a statement; in hypothesis testing we use

If our observation is unlikely, then the null hypothesis is probably incorrect.

So hypothesis testing uses an argument similar to a contrapositive. When making a

decision we can make two mistakes

1. We can reject Ho when Ho is correct. This is called a type I error.

2. We can fail to reject Ho when Ho is incorrect. This is called a type II error.

When we decide which hypothesis is the null and which are the alternatives, we

set the null hypothesis such that the consequences of a type I error are more severe








In addition, by boundedness and monotonicity, if we take a sequence of Dk-refinements
and apply these functions to the refinement matrices, the resulting sequences will
converge.

Proof. Let A(P,), A(Pnk) denote the eigenvalue multisets of P, and Pnk; Pnk is a
Dk-refinement of P, so

A(Pn) C A(Pnk)

{1, A2(Pn),... An(P)} C {1, A2(Pnk) .... An(Pnk), ..., nk(Pnk)}

{A2(P), ..., n(Pn)} C {A2(Pnk), A.. An(Pnk), ..., nk(Pnk)}

{I A2(Pn) 1, .... IAn(Pn) } C {I A2(Pnk) I, -- n(Pnk) A, I knk(Pnk)}

Since A(Pn) C A(Pnk), thejth largest element of {| A2(Pn) I,..., An(Pn) i} is smaller
than the thejth largest element of {| A2(Pnk) I ... I An(Pnk) I, I Ank(Pnk) i}, hence

I j(Pn) < Aj (Pnk) I for all j < n. Now if we take the minimum of both multisets,

{ A,2(Pn),. n(n)A }(P) } C f{ A2(Pnk) I, --, n(Pnk) 1, ... I Annk(Pk) I

min{| A2(Pn) I .... n(Pn) } > min{| A2(Pnk) A .. I n(Pnk) A .. I nk(Pnk) }

I An(Pn) I>1 Ank(Pnk) I

When we take determinants of Pn and Pnk, we get

det(Pn) = J A
AEA(Pn)
det(Pk)= J A=( Jn A)( n A).
AeA(P n) AeA(Pn) Ae(A(Pn)-A(Pn))
Eigenvalue magnitude of any stochastic matrix is bounded above by one, thus

I AI< I
AE(A(Pnk)-A(Pn))
Idet(Pnk) = J Al || A < I n Al= det(Pn) .
AEA(Pn) Ae(A(Pn)-A(Pn)) AEA(Pn)









CHAPTER 4
ESTIMATING THE RATE OF MIXING

Time is money, so if we have several mixing protocols we would prefer one that

mixes rapidly. After we conclude that a protocol mixes, the next question is "How

fast does it mix?" In this section we establish a statistical measure of mixing rate for

(D, B, p, f) when

(Xn, Zn, ((1/n, 1/n,..., 1/n), P), f,) is mixing.

4.1 The Jordan Canonical Form of Stochastic Matrices

Theorem 4.1.1. If P is an n x n ds-matrix such that IA2(P)I < 1 then

1/n ... 1/n
pN" as N oo.

1/n ... 1/n

Proof. Let J be a Jordan canonical form of P with (J)ii = A,, and conjugating matrix E,


P = EJE-1,


and


pN = EN E-.


Also, let Bil denote an / x / Jordan Block of J with eigenvalue Ai.

If |A2(P)| < 1, 1 has multiplicity one, hence [1] is a Jordan block; all other

blocks have diagonal entries with magnitude less than one. If we look at powers of

Jordan blocks Bi, (N > n), the diagonal is A"...A", the subdiagonals are zeros, the

superdiagonals are ANd() where d is the dth superdiagonal. When |A2(P)I < 1 and

S>1,



N=d









Remark 6.2.10. The upper bound in the previous theorem is achieved when Pn and Pnk

are identity matrices or derangement permutation matrices.










Theorem 6.1.10. If Pn is an n x n ds-matrix, Pnk is a k-refinement of Pn, Pn

v = (v,), u*Pn = Au*, u = (ui), then


( D1...u i U2... 12... lDn... ln) Pnk


V1'


Proof. The left hand side of the equation equals
Proof. The left hand side of the equation equals


n k n k

j j l 1uip, V
i= 1 a=1 j= 1 =3 1


Ak < v, > .


n n k k
Div pi i
i=l j1= a= 13=1
n n

Y jjv kpU
i=1 j 1
n n

i=1 j=1
n
k iAvi
i= 1
n
kA Di vi
i=1


Ak < v, > .


Thus we get the result.










Example 2.2.17 (Special Case n = 2). If we have a 2-refinement ofD, P = q

1 p. The characteristic polynomial of P is (A 1)(A + 1 2p). So A2(P) =2p 1.

1 0
((1/2, 1/2), P) is ergodic -P /
0 1

1 0 0 1
((1/2, 1/2), P) is mixing #P / or
01 1 0

When n = 2, a doubly-stochastic matrix is symmetric and there are one or two distinct
entries, so it is easy to explicitly state all cases of ergodic and mixing Markov shifts.
When n > 2, the numbers of entries make describing such Markov shifts with matrix
entries difficult.










Since we are treating the entries of a refinement matrix as a random event, what

can we say about the variance of entries?

Theorem 7.1.4. If P, is an n x n ds-matrix, Pnk is a k-refinement of P,, P, = (p,), Pnk

(P, ,), pij, are identically distributed of each fixed ij, then


1
max(0, p +
Sk


Proof. First note that Pnk is a ds-matrix, so 0 < po < 1 and 0 < p,2 < 1. By the

refinement equations


k k

a= /3=1
k k

a 1p= )2
a-1 131


k k

a=1 3=1


Pi jo Piprj
a7a' or373'


-kpu



k2p2

PUp~


Now 0 < pij < 1, so


0 < pi5j, Pij, < k2 k
ao a'ord/3'

So if we use these upper and lower bounds, we see that


k k k k

a=1 =1 a =l/3=1
k k
5p o a=l8=1
k k

S p 12 < k < k
=Taking expected values shows that
Taking expected values shows that


k k
5 p'jo P,^j,< k2 k + p2
a#a'or/33' a-1 /3 1
k k
k +p YY
a= 1=1
k k
k 13 Y1


k k
E(E Ep ) <
a= 1 1


E(k2p2) < E(k2 k


k k

a= 13 1


1) < E(p2 ) < p2.
W3 Y








6. (D, Fo, I, f) is a dynamical system
7. f is measure preserving
8. limN 4 ,1 pl(f-'(A)n B) p(A)p(B)| = OVA, Be for all k.
then (D, FT, /, f) is weak-mixing.

Proof. Let A, B e T,, Ak, Bk e Tk such that

p(AAAk) = min{/p(AAS) E Fk}

(BA/Bk) = min{p(BAS) : E TFk

Since Fk1 < oo and k C FT, Ak and Bk exist,

Ip(f-'(A) n B) p(A) (B)I =|p(f-'(A) n B) p(f-'(A) n Bk)

+p(f-'(A) n Bk) (f-'(Ak) Bk)
+ (f-'(Ak) n Bk) p(Ak)I(Bk)
+ p(Ak)i(Bk) (A)p(B)|
<|(f-'(A) n B) p(f-'(A) n Bk)

+ |(f-'(A) n Bk) -(f-'(Ak) n Bk)
+ p(f-'(Ak)n Bk)- p(Ak)P(Bk)
S\p(Ak)A(Bk) p(A)p(B)|
<| (BABk)I + (f-'(A)Af-'(Ak))

p(f-'(Ak)n Bk)- p(Ak)(Bk)
--p(Ak)(Bk)- p)(A)p(B)|
=|p(BABk)| + p(AAAk)
p (f-'(Ak)n Bk) p(Ak)(Bk)
-,p(Ak),(Bk)- )(A) .(B)|.










then


-1 < E(lim inf Ak2 Ak3 +... A+ Akk) < 0.
k--oo

Proof. Stochastic matrices have entries on [0, 1] so trace(Pjk) e [0, nk]. By Fatou's

lemma


0 k-oo k-oo


0 k--oo


Ak2 + Ak3


0 k--oo


0 <1 + E(lim inf Ak2
k-oo

0 <1 + E(lim inf Ak2
k-oo


1 k--oo


nk
S knk) < lim inf E( (Pk)ii)
--oo i=
i 1


3 -- + knk) < lim inf >E((Pk)ii)
k--oo
i=1
nk
nk 1
3+ ... + Akn) < liminf V2-
koo nk
i= 1

3 + + Aknk) <

...-- + kn, ) <- 0.


Thus we get the result.

The next example gives us an idea of how much we can expect P to differ from P

when n = 2.

Example 5.1.15. If P is an 2 x 2 ds-matrix then


IIPP PI||I1= P- P 1|2=I| P- P || =1|| P P IIF


12p 1|< 1


Where P =


variable, then


1-p

p p


For these particular norms if p is a uniform[0, 1] random


E(I| P- P ||)


1
E(12p 11) =
2










Proof. Since 7 is an eigenvector of Pn,


PV = AV.


So it follows that


n
vj p, = Av.
J-1


By the refinement equations


k n k

a=l j=l 3=
a-1j-1 /3-1


n k k

j=1 a=l /3=1
n
vj kpu
j 1


Akp,.


Divide both sides by k to get the result.

Remark 6.1.9. For any matrix M with left and right eigenvectors of A, u and v (u* M

AI* and MV = Av),


u*Mv = ,u* v = < au,v > .


Where denotes conjugate transpose, and < u, v > refers to the dot product.


























=AT(
ATV


n
= TV.



















TPV =AV.
If v is a scalar mutipletor of P, P= then,
TPv=T(vP')



=\1Tv



=\(lv < v, *> ).



IfAf1,< 7,?>= 0,

TP7 = A 7.



If v is a scalar multiple of i then





TPv = : = 0 U.

\0/










Theorem 11.1.2. If my counts the points such that x Di and f(x) e Dj for our

Ulam matrix where the data points are independent uniform random variables, and

mi = m2 = ... = mn, then


m
mlj + ... + mn


-> p, as mi -> oo almost surely


Proof. mik ~ binomial(pik, m) for each ik so by the strong law of large numbers

mik
-> pik as mi -> o almost surely.
iii

Now we take the limit of the quotient,


,. my
lim M-
ml--oo mlj + ...


ml


mU
= lim m
ml--oo ml m-
mi mi
mm



limml-o m
(limml-o o m )l + ... + (limm-oo
lim m1


limm,-oo m_

pmi
Ppp
Plj + ... + Pnj


Now ply + ... + p, = 1, since we use an n-partition to generate our Ulam matrix. So

,. my
lim M- = p6.
m-oo mlj ... + mnj

Thus the quotient converges to the entry of P.


Corollary 11.1.3. E( mU ) = P
mlj + ... + mn

Proof. Our measure space is a probability space and


0<


my
mlj + ...


< 1,


113


m,

PAGE 2

2

PAGE 3

3

PAGE 4

IthankProfessorBoylandforhisguidance,andmembersofmysupervisorycommitteefortheirmentoring.IthankBridgettandAkikofortheirloveandpatience.Ineededthesupporttheygavetoreachmygoal. 4

PAGE 5

page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .................................. 4 LISTOFTABLES ...................................... 7 ABSTRACT ......................................... 8 CHAPTER 1INTRODUCTION ................................... 9 1.1HypothesesforTesting ............................. 12 1.2TestingProcedure ............................... 13 2ERGODICTHEORYANDMARKOVSHIFTS ................... 16 2.1ErgodicTheory ................................. 16 2.2MarkovShifts .................................. 17 3STOCHASTICANDDOUBLY-STOCHASTICMATRICES ............ 23 3.1Doubly-StochasticMatrices .......................... 23 3.2AdditionalPropertiesofStochasticMatrices ................. 33 4ESTIMATINGTHERATEOFMIXING ....................... 41 4.1TheJordanCanonicalFormofStochasticMatrices ............. 41 4.2EstimatingMixingRate ............................ 42 5PROBABILISTICPROPERTIESOFDS-MATRICES ............... 45 5.1RandomDS-Matrices ............................. 45 5.2MetricEntropyofMarkovShiftswithRandomMatrices ........... 54 6PARTITIONREFINEMENTS ............................ 56 6.1EqualMeasureRenements ......................... 56 6.2ASpecialClassofRenements ........................ 68 7PROBALISTICPROPERTIESOFPARTITIONREFINEMENTS ......... 74 7.1EntriesofaRenementMatrix ........................ 74 7.2TheCentralTendencyofRenementMatrices ............... 78 7.3MetricEntropyAfterEqualMeasureRenement .............. 80 8ULAMMATRICES .................................. 82 8.1BuildingtheStochasticUlamMatrix ..................... 82 8.2PropertiesofUlamMatrices .......................... 84 5

PAGE 6

....................... 92 9.1StirringProtocolsasOperatorsandOperatorEigenfunctions ....... 92 9.2ConvergenceResults ............................. 97 10DECAYOFCORRELATION ............................. 107 10.1ComparingOurTesttoDecayofCorrelation ................. 107 10.2AConjectureAboutMixingRate ....................... 110 11CRITERIAFORWHENMOREDATAPOINTSARENEEDED .......... 112 11.1OurMainCriteriaforWhenMoreDataPointsAreNeeded ......... 112 11.2OtherCriteriaforWhenMoreDataPointsAreNeeded ........... 116 12PROBABILITYDISTRIBUTIONSOFDS-MATRICES ............... 117 12.1ConditionalProbabilityDistributions ..................... 117 12.2ApproximatingProbabilityDistributions .................... 120 12.2.1TheDealer'sAlgorithm ......................... 120 12.2.2FullConvexCombinations ....................... 123 12.2.3ReducedConvexCombinations .................... 126 12.2.4TheDS-GreedyAlgorithm ....................... 128 12.2.5UsingtheGreedyDS-Algorithm .................... 130 12.2.6DS-MatricesArisingfromUnitaryMatrices .............. 131 13EXAMPLES ...................................... 133 13.1TheReectionMap .............................. 133 13.2Arnold'sCatMap ................................ 135 13.3TheSineFlowMap(parameter8/5) ..................... 136 13.4TheSineFlowMap(parameter4/5) ..................... 137 13.5TheBaker'sMap ................................ 138 13.6TheChirikovStandardMap(parameter0) .................. 140 REFERENCES ....................................... 143 BIOGRAPHICALSKETCH ................................ 145 6

PAGE 7

Table page 13-1TheReectionMap ................................. 135 13-2Arnold'sCatMap ................................... 136 13-3TheSineFlowMap(parameter8/5) ........................ 137 13-4TheSineFlowMap(parameter4/5) ........................ 138 13-5TheBaker'sMap ................................... 140 13-6TheChirikovStandardMap(parameter0) ..................... 141 7

PAGE 8

8

PAGE 9

9

PAGE 10

1 ],ndattractors[ 2 ],andapproximaterandomandforceddynamicalsystems[ 3 ].StanUlamproposedwhatwecallUlam'smethodinhis1964bookProblemsinModernMathematics[ 4 ],theproceduregivesadiscretizationofaPerron-Frobeniusoperator(transferoperator).Theprocedureprovidesasuperiormethodofestimatinglongtermdistributionsandnaturalinvariantmeasuresofdeterministicsystems[ 3 ].Eigenvaluesandtheircorrespondingeigenfunctionsofhyperbolicmapscanrevealimportantpersistentstructuresofadyamicalsystems,suchasalmostinvariantsets[ 1 5 ].Ulam'sniteapproximationofabsolutelycontinuousinvariantmeasuresofsystemsdenedbyrandomcompositionsofpiecewisemonotonictransformationsconverges[ 6 ].Ulam'smethodmaybeusedtoestimatethemeasure-theoreticentropyofuniformlyhyperbolicmapsonsmoothmanifoldsandobtainnumericalestimatesofphysicalmeasures,Lyapunovexponents,decayofcorrelationandescaperatesforeverywhereexpandingmaps,Anosovmaps,mapsthatarehyperboliconanattractinginvariantset,andhyperboliconanon-attractinginvariantset[ 7 ]. 10

PAGE 11

6 ];similaritiesbetweentheapproximatingmatrixandthetargetoperatorareestablished,andproofofconvergencewithrespectweak-mixingisgiven.Decayofcorrelationisawellestablishedmeasureofmixing;thesecondlargesteigenvalueoftheapproximatingmatrixanddecayofcorrelationaredifferentmeasuresofmixing.Decayofcorrelationisabettermeasureofmixing,butrequiresasequenceofstirringiteration,thesecondlargesteigenvaluerequiresoneiteration.Ifthepartitionisa 11

PAGE 12

1. 2. 3. 1. WecanrejectHowhenHoiscorrect.ThisiscalledatypeIerror. 2. WecanfailtorejectHowhenHoisincorrect.ThisiscalledatypeIIerror.Whenwedecidewhichhypothesisisthenullandwhicharethealternatives,wesetthenullhypothesissuchthattheconsequencesofatypeIerroraremoresevere 12

PAGE 13

1. RejectHoinfavorofHa2ifj2(bP)jc1andj2(bP)jc2wherec1isacriticalvalue. 3. FailtorejectHootherwise.SincewearemoreconcernedwithatypeIerror,rejectingHoisunlikelywhenobservingrandomevents.Tosetthecriticalvalueswemusthaveanestimateoftheprobabilitydistributionoftheteststatistic.Probabilitydistibutionsofds-matricesaredifculttoworkwith,theMonteCarlochapterprovideswaystoapproximateprobabilitydistributionsofteststatistics. Notation1.2.1. Setthesignicancelevel. 13

PAGE 14

Setnsuchthatconnectedregionsofmeasure1 3. Decidewhichconditionalprobabilitydistributionsofj2(bP)jwhenj2(P)j=1touse.Weproposeusingabetadistributionwith2and=1forHa2. 4. SetcriticalvaluesforHa1,Ha2. 5. PartitionDintonconnectedsubsetswithequalmeasure,fDigni=1,D=n]i=1Di,(Di)=1 RandomlyselectmsamplepointsinD,callthepointsfxkgmk=1.LetmibethenumberofpointsinDi. 7. Runoneiterationofthemixingprotocol. 8. Letmijbethenumberofpointssuchthatxk2Diandf(xk)2Dj.LetM=(mij),MisiscalledanUlamMatrix. 9. LetbP=(mij 10. Ifthereareconcernsabouteigenvaluestability,conrmtheresultsofHoversusHa2with1((IP)bP). 11. Makeadecisionaboutthehypothesesoftestingbasedonthecriticalvalues. 12. IfwerejectHoinfavorofHa2,lettherateatwhichNn1(2(bP))Nn+1!0asN!1beourestimateoftherateofmixing. 13. Estimateoftheentropyofthedynamicalsystemwith1

PAGE 15

15

PAGE 16

8 ]If(D,B,)isaprobabilityspace,ameasurepreservingtransforma-tionfisergodicifB2Bandf1(B)=Bthen(B)=0or(Bc)=0.Thisdenitiongeneralizesto-nitemeasurespaces,butwewillonlylookatprobabilityspaces.Wewillusethefollowingtheoremtodeneergodic,weak-mixingandstrong-mixing. 9 ]Let(D,B,,f)beaprobabilityspaceandletSbeasemi-algebrathatgeneratesB.Letf:D!Dbeameasurepreservingtransformation.Then 1. 8 ]. 16

PAGE 17

Denition2.2.1. 17

PAGE 18

9 ],sowewillreferto((1=n,1=n,1=n,...,1=n),P)asmixingornotmixing.SinceourMarkovshiftisonlyanapproximationof(D,B,,f),wemayaccepthypothesesofweak-mixingandnotmakestatementsofstrong-mixingwhenweak-mixingisaccepted.Laterwewillshowwhy((1=n,1=n,1=n,...,1=n),P)isareasonableapproximationof(D,B,,f). 1. If((1=n,1=n,1=n,...,1=n),P)isnotergodic,wewillfailtorejectthehypothesisthat(D,B,,f)isnotergodicandnotweak-mixing. 18

PAGE 19

If((1=n,1=n,1=n,...,1=n),P)isergodicbutnotmixing,wewillrejectthehypothesisthat(D,B,,f)isnotergodicinfavorofthehypothesisthat(D,B,,f)isergodicbutnotweak-mixing. 3. If((1=n,1=n,1=n,...,1=n),P)ismixing,wewillrejectthehypothesisthat(D,B,,f)isnotergodicandnotmixinginfavorofthehypothesisthat(D,B,,f)isergodicandweak-mixing.Thefollowinglemmaandtheoremsgiveuscriteriaforwhen((1=n,1=n,1=n,...,1=n),P)isergodicormixing. 1. 2. AllrowsofthematrixQareidentical. 3. EveryentryinQisstrictlypositive. 4.

PAGE 20

9 10 ]Iffnisthe(~p,P)Markovshift(eitherone-sidedortwo-sided)thefollowingareequivalent: 1. 2. 3. ThematrixPisirreducibleandaperiodic(i.e.9N>0suchthatthematrixPNhasnozeroentries). 4. Forallstatesi,jwehave(Pk)ij!pj. 5. 9 ]TheMarkovshift(~p,P),~p=(pi),P=(Pij),hasmetricentropynXi=1nXj=1pipij(log(pij)).Wherewedene0log(0):=0.

PAGE 21

Proof. 1. ((1/4,1/4,1/4,1/4),2666666641=65=6005=61=600001=32=3002=31=3377777775)isanon-ergodicMarkovshiftwithentropyapproximately0.544. 2. ((1/4,1/4,1/4,1/4),2666666640100001000011000377777775)isanergodicMarkovshift,butisnon-mixing,withentropy0. 3. ((1/4,1/4,1/4,1/4),2666666641=41=41=41=41=41=41=41=41=41=41=41=41=41=41=41=4377777775)isamixingMarkovshift.ThisMarkovshiftachievestheentropyupperboundoflog4.

PAGE 23

Proof.

PAGE 24

Proof. 1 Weskipthestandardproofsofthefollowinglemmas.Thenextlemmashowsthatalloftheeigenvaluesofastochasticmatrixareontheunitdiskofthecomplexplane. 24

PAGE 26

1. 2. Theeigenvectorcorrespondingto1hasstrictlypositiveentries. 3. Allothereigenvalueshavemagnitudelessthan1. 4. Theeigenvectorsthatdonotcorrespondto1havenonpositiveentries.IfPisastochasticmatrixwithnonnegativeentriesthenthereisaneigenvectorcorre-spondingto1withallentrieson[0,1).

PAGE 27

2,wegetthefollowingequationsforP.p11+p12=1p21+p22=1p11+p21=1p12+p22=1Thusp11=p22,p12=p21.Ifwesetp=p11,q=1p=p12,P=264pqqp375. 27

PAGE 28

:Thiscasefollowsfromthepreviousexample.Every22ds-matrixisoftheformP=264p1p1pp375forsomep2[0,1].n=3 :Thiscasefollowsfromapreviouscounterexample.ThematrixP=2666641=31=31=31=21=61=31=61=21=3377775isa33ds-matrixthatisnotsymmetric.n>3 :LetPdenotethematrixinthen=3case,Ikbethekkidentitymatrix,and0kbethekkmatrixwithzeroforallentries.Thenforeachn>3,264P0303In3375isannnds-matrixthatisnotsymmetric. Asnincreases,thedegreesoffreedomfornnds-matricesincreasesandthewaysthatads-matrixcandeviatefrombeingsymmetricgrow.Duetothisandtheobservationthatrandomlygeneratedds-matricesaresymmetriclessfrequentlyforlargen,weproposethefollowingconjecture.

PAGE 29

11 ]Annnmatrixisdoublystochasticifandonlyifitisaconvexcombinationofnnpermutationmatrices.SoDSnisaconvexsetwiththepermutationmatricesbeingtheextremepointsoftheset.Infact,byCaratheodory'sconvexsettheorem,everynnds-matrixisaconvexcombinationof(n1)2+1orfewerpermutationmatrices. 29

PAGE 31

Proof.

PAGE 32

2p+1 2p+1 2p1 2375k.ItfollowthatkPPk1=j2p1j1,kPPk2=j2p1j1,kPPk1=j2p1j1,kPPkF=j2p1j1.ThematrixPisthecenterofds-matrices,howdoes((1=n,...,1=n),P)comparetoothermeasures?IfourMarkovshifthas((1=n,...,1=n),P)asitsmeasure,thenknowingwhichpartitionsetxisintellsusnothingaboutwhichpartitionsetf(x)isin.ThusPisthematrixofoptimalmixing.Ifj2(P)j<1,then(Xn,n,((1=n,...,1=n),P),fn)isamixingdynamicalsystemandPk!Pask!1(wewillshowthisresultwhileweconstructourmixingrateestimate).SoaMarkovshift,(Xn,n,((1=n,...,1=n),P),fn),beingamixingdynamicalsystemisequivalenttoPk!Pask!1.WewillneedaJordancanonicalformofPtomakeaninferenceabouttherateatwhichPk!Pask!1.WewillusetherateatwhichbPk!Pask!1toestimatethemixingrateof(D,B,,f). 12 ]withcharacteristicpolynomialxn1(x1).FuthermoretheJordanCanonicalformofPhasaoneonthediagonalandallotherentriesarezero.

PAGE 33

33

PAGE 34

Proof.

PAGE 35

2thenPisinvertible. Proof. 2.Since1 2
PAGE 36

Proof. ThisupperboundisachievedwhenPistheidentitymatrix.

PAGE 37

Noticethatjnj=n1p Theidentitymatrixachievesthelowerbound.

PAGE 38

Proof.

PAGE 40

SowemayuseTPtodescribetheeigenvaluesofP,furthermore2(P)=1(TP).NextwelookathowthesingularvaluesofTPcomparetotheeigenvaluesofP. 12 ]andourpreviousresult,j2(P)j=j1(TP)j1(TP).Theupperboundofonefollowsfromastraightforwardcomputation. Ifweareconcernedaboutthestabilityofeigenvaluesfromourapproximatingmatrix,bP,thenwemayusetheeigenvaluesofTbP.Ifwedonottrustthestabilityofeigenvaluesfromeithermatrix,thenwemayusetherstsingularvalueofTbP.Sincetherstsingularvalueofamatrixisverystable,1(TbP)isabetterstatisticwheneigenvaluestabilityisquestionable.Unfortunately,theprobabilitydistributionof1(TbP)willlikelydifferfromtheprobabilitydistributionofj2(bP)j. 40

PAGE 41

Theorem4.1.1.

PAGE 42

TheMarkovshift((1=n,...,1=n),P)intuitivelygivestheoptimalmixingforaMarkovshift.Knowingxitellsusnothingaboutxi+1,andforanyprobabilityvector,(p1,p2,...,pn),(p1,p2,...,pn)P=(1=n,1=n,...,1=n).Whenweuse(p1,p2,...,pn)torepresentasimplefunctionapproximatingtheinitialconcentrationofaningredienttobemixedinD,astirringprotocolthatmixestheingredientinoneiterationwillhave(Xn,n,((1=n,...,1=n),P),fn)astheapproximatingMarkovshift. 42

PAGE 43

Proof. 43

PAGE 44

44

PAGE 45

Denition5.1.1.

PAGE 46

Proof.

PAGE 48

Thenextfewtheoremsgivepropertiesofthecovariancebetweenentriesofarandomnnds-matrix.Sinceallrowsandallcolumnssumtoone,ifoneentrychangesthenatleastoneotherentryonthesamerowandoneotherentryonthesamecolumnmustchangetomaintainthesum.Iffollowsthattheentriesofarandomnnds-matrixcannotbeindependent.

PAGE 50

1. Ifj6=j0,then1 Ifi6=i0,then1

PAGE 53

ThenextexamplegivesusanideaofhowmuchwecanexpectPtodifferfromPwhenn=2. 2.

PAGE 55

Thenexttheoremisusefulifonewishestousetheharmonicmeanoftheentriesofarandomstochasticmatrix. Proof. 1=nE(1 55

PAGE 56

1. LetPnbeourstochasticmatrixbeforerenementwithentriespij,pij=(f(x)2Djjx2Di). LetPnkbeourstochasticmatrixafterrenementwithentriespij,pij=(f(x)2Djjx2Di).ArrangetherowsandcolumnsofPnkwiththeorder1112...1k2122...2k...n1n2...nk.WiththisarrangementwecanrepresentPnkasablockmatrixwhereeachentryofPncorrespondstoakkblockofPnk. 56

PAGE 57

57

PAGE 63

Proof. IfwetakeasequenceofrenementmatricesfPnkg1k=1,nkjnk+1,k,2=2(Pnk),thenfk,2g1k=1measuresmixingateachrenement.Since(k+1),2measuresmixingonanerpartitionthank,2,onewouldexpectfjk,2jg1k=1tobeanondecreasingsequence,thisisnotthecase.Thereareexamplesofsequencesthathavej(k+1),2j
PAGE 64

Whenwetakearenement,whatdotheeigenvaluesandeigenvectorsofPntellusabouttheeigenvaluesandeigenvectorsofPnk?ForPntobeofvalue,itneedstocapturetheusefulinformationfromPnk,ifitdoesnot,thenPnhasnohopeofbeingusefulinmakingadecisionabout(D,B,,f).Sinceweareusinganeigenvalueasateststatistic,wepresentthenextresultsdescribingtherelationshipbetweentheeigenvaluesofPnandPnk.

PAGE 65

Proof.

PAGE 67

67

PAGE 69

Proof.

PAGE 70

Proof.

PAGE 71

13 ]ThebiasofapointestimatorWofaparameteristhedifferencebetweenE(W)and;thatis,BiasW=E(W).IfE(W)=,thenwecallWanunbiasedestimatorof.IfE(W)6=,thenwecallWabiasedestimatorof. WhenwerenefDigni=1,theapproximationof(D,B,,f)isner.Sothecriteriatomixovertherenedpartitionismorestringent.Sincej2(Pnk)jisourmeasureofmixing,wemakethefollowingconjecture. 71

PAGE 72

72

PAGE 75

Proof. 75

PAGE 78

Notation7.2.1.

PAGE 79

Proof. ThenexttheoremindicateshowmuchwecanexpectPntodifferfrom

PAGE 81

81

PAGE 82

1. Applyan-partitiontoD. 2. RandomlygenerateorstatisticallysamplemiuniformlydistributedindependentpointsinDiforalli(mi2N).Applyftothedatapoints. 3. Setmijequaltothenumberofpointssuchthatx2Di,f(x)2Dj. 4. LetbPbethematrixwithbpij=mij

PAGE 83

5. Letb2bebP'ssecondlargesteigenvalueinmagnitude.Ifb2isnotuniquepickaneigenvalueofminimaldistancetoone. 6. Ifjb2jissufcientlysmallerthan1,rejectthehypothesisthat(D,B,,f)isnotmixinginfavorofthehypothesisthat(D,B,,f)isweak-mixing. 7. Ifjb2jisnotsufcientlysmall,butjb21jissufcientlylargerejectthehypothesisthat(D,B,,f)isnotergodicinfavorofthehypothesisthat(D,B,,f)isergodic. 8. Ifb2isclosetoone,failtorejectthehypothesisthat(D,B,,f)isnotergodic. 9. Ifweacceptthehypothesisthat(D,B,,f)isweak-mixing,usetherateatwhichNn1jb2jNn+1!0asN!1asanestimateoftherateatwhichfmixes. 10. Let1

PAGE 84

Theorem8.2.1.

PAGE 85

SinceweareusinganapproximationofP,howfaroffisbP?HowmanydatapointsshouldbeusedtogeneratebP? 4mi

PAGE 86

4min1inmi.ItfollowsthatP(PbPF>)n2 TheprevioustheoremshowedconvergenceinprobabilityandgivesinsightintotheprobabilitydistributionofbP.OurnexttheoremshowsthatE(PbPF)!0asmin1infmig!1.Sothenexttheoremimpliesthepreviousconvergenceresult;weshowedthelasttheoremforitsstatementabouttheprobabilitydistribution.

PAGE 87

4minXi=1nXj=11 4min1inmi=n2 Wewantb2,toconvergetothecorrectvalue,otherwisethesecondlargesteigenvaluewouldmakeapoorteststatistic. 87

PAGE 88

13 ]IfTisafunctiononempiricaldataXandisaparameteroftheprobabilitydistributionofX,thenT(X)isasufcientstatisticforiftheconditionaldistributionofXgivenT(X)doesnotdependon. Proof. Onceagainwelookatthesimplestcase,herewemakeinferencesabouttheprobabilitydistributionofanUlamapproximationof22matrix.

PAGE 90

Proof. TheJordancanonicalformofPprovidesamixingrateestimate.WhatcanwesayaboutusingtheJordancanonicalformofbPtoapproximateP'scanonicalform?

PAGE 91

91

PAGE 92

Notation9.1.1. 92

PAGE 93

SoifuisaneigenfunctionoffanddenesaprobablitiydistributionfunctiononD,then=1.

PAGE 94

(Dki)]1Dki(x)=nknkXi=1[ZDkiud]1Dki(x).ByconstructionZDkiukd=ZDkiudforallki,andthusZDukd=ZDudforallk.Soukisourbestapproximationofuoverthe-algebrageneratedbyfDkignki=1.InfactukisaprojectionofuontothesetofsimplefunctionoverfDkignki=1[ 14 ].IffDk+1ignk+1i=1isarenementoffDkignki=1,thenthesetofsimplefunctionsoverfDkignki=1iscontainedinthesetofsimplefunctionsoverfDk+1ignk+1i=1;itfollowsthatuk+1isabetterapproximationofuthanuk.WeusetheentriesfromstationarydistributionsoffbPnkg1k=1toconstructapproximationsofstationarydistributionsoff.If~pk=~pkbPnkand~pitaprobabilityvector 94

PAGE 96

15 ]LetX1,X2,...beasequenceofrandomvariablesonaprobabilityspace(,F,P),andletF1,F2,...beasequenceof-algebrasinF.Thesequencef(Xk,Fk)g1k=1isamartingaleifthesefourconditionshold: 1. 2. 3. 4. withprobabilityone,E(Xk+1jFk)=Xk.

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Proof. (Dkj)=RDkjud 97

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15 ]IfF1,F2,...isasequenceof-algebrassatisfyingF1F2...,F1=(S1k=1Fk)andZisintegrable,thenE(ZjFk)!E(ZjF1)withprobabilityone.ThenexttheoremgivesusconvergenceofuktouwhenS1=B.ThusitisimportanttorenepartitionssuchthattherenementsgeneratetheBorel-algebrainthelimit. Sinceweareworkingwithasequenceofrenementpartitions,uk(x)iscontainedinthesetofsimplefunctionsoverfDk+1ignk+1i=1.Henceuk+1(x)isnoworseofanapproximationofu(x)thanuk(x).

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101

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1. 2. 3. Wearenotsayingthat(D,Fk,,f)isaweak-mixingdynamicalsystem,fdoesnotneedtobeFk-measureable.ThispropositionshowsusthatifweobservetwosetsAk,Bk2FksuchthatlimN!11 102

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Ournexttheoremgivesacriteriaforweak-mixing. 1. 2.

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7. 8. Proof.

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106

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Denition10.1.1. Proof.

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SowemayusethesequencefkP(k)PkFg1k=1todetectdecayofcorrelationbetweensimplefunctionsoversetsin(fDigni=1).Alsowemayusetherateatwhichthissequencegoestozerotomeasuretheratethatthedynamicalsystemstrong-mixesover(fDigni=1).

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Proof. 110

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111

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1=n=(f(x)2Dj^x2Di) Itfollowsthatmij 112

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Proof.

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114

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1. 2.

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1. WhenwegeneratebP,weknowthatitapproximatesannnds-matrix,thuscolumnsumsshouldbeclosetoone.IfnXj=1(1nXi=1bpij)2=nXj=1(nXi=1bpij)2nissignicantlylargerthanzerothenmorepointsshouldbeused. 2. SupposewewanttocheckhowclosebPistobeingdswithrespecttoaparticular.IfthevalueofkbPT0BBBBBBB@11...11CCCCCCCA0BBBBBBB@11...11CCCCCCCAk=k(bPTI)0BBBBBBB@11...11CCCCCCCAkdifferssignicantlyfromzero,thenmorepointsshouldbeused. 3. Allds-matriceshave(1=n,1=n,...,1=n)asastationarydistributionsoifbPdoesnothaveastrictlypositivestationarydistribution,morepointsshouldbeused. 4. Allds-matriceshave(1=n,1=n,...,1=n)asastationarydistributionsoifsupnp k~uk:~ubP=~u,~uisaprobabilityvectoroisfarfromoneforallstrictlypositivestationarydistributionsofbP,thenmorepointsshouldbeused. 116

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1. 2. 1. Uniformdistribution:g(t)=1[0,1](t) Betadistribution:g(t)=()() (+)t1(1t)t11[0,1](t),>0,>0 Triangledistribution:ga(t)isthepiecewiselinearfunctionthatformsatrianglewiththeinterval[0,1]asthebaseandthepoint(a,2)astheapex.Whenj2(P)j=1,thecorrectdistributiontouseprobablyhasj2(bP)j=1asacentraltendency.Sincej2(bP)j1theonlywaytohavethemeanormedianequalone 117

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1. Uniformdistribution:Allvalueson[0,1]areamodeofthedistribution.g(t)=1[0,1](t) Betadistribution:Tohavet=1beamodewemustset1,=1.g1(t)=t11[0,1](t) Triangledistribution:Themodeofthedistributionisasoseta=1.ga(t)=2t1[0,1](t)If=1,=1,thenthebetadistributiongivesustheuniformdistribution;if=2,=1,thenthebetadistributiongivesusthetriangledistributiondistributionwithmodeofone.Thebetafamilyofdistributionsincludestheuniformdistributionandthetriangledistributionwithmodeatone.Soweproposeusingthebetadistributionwith1,=1.g1(t)=t11[0,1](t).Thebetadistributionprovidestheadditionaladvantagethatitisanexponentialfamilyofdistributions.When1,=1andasignicancelevelisset,thecriticalvalueincreasesasincreases.Ifpossible,beforeevaluatingourstirringprotocol,weshouldlookatseveralstirringpatternsinthesameclassasfandusemaximumlikelihoodestimatesormethodofmomentstoestimate.If2isauniformlydistributedrandom 118

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()()t1(1t)1dt.ItfollowsthatIf=1,thenP(bp
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+,andpisxedsoifE()=0,thenE(bp)=p= +.ItfollowsthatV(bp)=V()=p2(1p) 1. Usethedealer'salgorithmtogenerateds-matrices 2. Takeconvexcombinationsofalln!permutationmatricestogenerateds-matrices 3. Takeconvexcombinationsof(n1)2+1ormorepermutationmatricestogenerateds-matrices 4. Useunitarymatricestogenerateds-matrices 120

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1. Thenumberofsamplepointsissmallerthanwewouldlike(minmiissmall). 2. Wehavenoknowledgeofthedistributionbeforehand. 3. Wewanttosampleds-matriceswithentriesfromfa g:a2f0,1,2,...,ggg. 121

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g.TakingsquarerootsofbothsidesleadstoE(kPPkF)

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sum(~u)isarandomconvexcombinationalmostsurely.Wemaytaketheabsolutevalueofrealrandomvariablesthatarecontinuousatzerotogetconvexcombinations.Ifwechangethedistributionoftheui's,wechangethedistributionoftheconvexcombinationsandthuschangethedistributionofthedoublystochasticmatrices.Toverifythis,comparetheresultswhentheui'sareindependentuniform([0,1])randomvariables,andwhenui=v2iwherethevi'sareindependentcauchy(0,1)randomvariables.

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Proof. dkP(N+1
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dk(P(N+1
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Theorem12.2.11. Proof. Wewillrefertoconvexcombinationsofpermutationmatricesthatusealln!permutationmatricesalmostsurelyasfullconvexcombinations.Wewillcallconvexcombinationsthatuse(n1)2+1permutationmatricesreducedconvexcombinations.Thenextresultshowsthatfullandreducedconvexcombinationssamplefromprobabilityspaceswithdifferentmeasures.

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Proof. Itwouldbenicetobeabletoextendasetofobservedds-matriceswheneverobtainingobservationsisdifcultorexpensive;MuraliRaocreatedawaytoextendasetofobservations.

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1. Applythegreedyds-algorithmtoourobservedds-matrices. 2. Usethemethodofmomentsormaximumlikelihoodestimationtoapproximatetheparameter.Calltheapproximationb. 3. Useindependentgamma(b,b)randomvariablestogeneratenewds-matrices.Theresearchermustdecidewhatvalueofbisappropriate.Theck'sareindependentandidenticallydistributedgamma(b,b).k=ck

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Proof. 131

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17 ],theexpectedvalueofthesecondlargesteigenvalueoftheds-matricesgoestozeroasngoestoinnity[ 18 ].IfAisarandomnmmatrixwithfullcolumnrankalmostsurely,Uisaunitaryqr-factorofA,andPisthematrixwherePij=jUijj2,thenPisarandomds-matrix.DifferentprobabilitymeasuresforAwillresultindifferentprobabilitymeasuresforP.Soanyprocessthatgeneratesrandommatriceswithfullcolumnrankmaybeusedtogenerateds-matrices. 132

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133

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13-1 .ForeverypartitionbP=P,m=106appearstobesufcientandwefailtorejectHoandcorrectlyconcludethatthemapisnotmixing. 134

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TheReectionMap NumberofStatesAveragej2(bP)jTypicalp-valueof2 13-2 135

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Arnold'sCatMap NumberofStatesAveragej2(bP)jTypicalp-valueof2 AtypicalbPforfourstatesisbP2666666640.25070.24960.25010.24960.25130.24840.25050.24970.24890.25110.25000.25000.25060.25040.24990.2491377777775.max(jPbPj)0.0016j2(bP)j0.0016Typicalsignicancelevelswillconcludethatweusedenoughpointswhenn=4,16,64,256,1024,butm=106isnotsufcientwhenn=4096. 19 ].Foradynamicalsystemtobechaoticitmustbetopologicallymixing;thatistosay,foranytwoopensetsA,BD,thereexistsanNsuchthatfn(A)\B6=;

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TheSineFlowMap(parameter8/5) NumberofStatesAveragej2(bP)jTypicalp-valueof2 whenevern>N.Weranourprocedure100timeswith106pseudorandomlygeneratedpoints(uniformly)andsawtheresultslistedintable 13-3 .Typicalsignicancelevelswillconcludethatweusedenoughpointsforn=4,16,64,256,1024,butm=106appearstobeinsufcientwhenn=4096.AtypicalbPforfourstatesisbP2666666640.16550.23410.23300.36730.23160.16560.37090.23180.23320.36910.16470.23310.36960.23260.23280.1650377777775.j2(bP)j0.2048 13-4 137

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TheSineFlowMap(parameter4/5) NumberofStatesAveragej2(bP)jTypicalp-valueof2 Typicalsignicancelevelswillconcludethatweusedenoughpointswhenn=4,16,64,256,1024,butm=106isnotsufcientwhenn=4096.AtypicalbPforfourstatesisbP2666666640.20150.23110.22940.33800.22930.20180.33940.22960.23070.33670.20100.23170.33910.22960.22980.2015377777775.j2(bP)j0.1375ItisbelievedthatfmixesfasterforlargerT.Comparisonofeigenvaluemagnitudefromthetwosineowmapexamplesrunscountertothisconjecture.Thebaker'smapexampleshowshoweigenvalueinstabilitycanaltertheobservedeigenvalues.

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13-5 139

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TheBaker'sMap NumberofStatesAveragej2(bP)jTypicalp-valueof2 AtypicalbPforfourstatesisbP2666666640.50130.498700000.49950.50050.50110.498900000.49970.5003377777775.max(jPbPj)0.0013j2(bP)j0.0079.Typicalsignicancelevelswillconcludethatweusedenoughpointswhenn=4,16,64,256,1024,butm=106isnotsufcientwhenn=4096.Weknowthatthemapismixing,theinducedMarkovshiftismixingbuttheeigenvaluesoftheapproximatingmatricesdonotreecttherateofmixing.Thisexampledemonstrateshoweigenvalueinstabilityandinsufcientmcanthrowoffanobservation.

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TheChirikovStandardMap(parameter0) NumberofStatesAveragej2(bP)jTypicalp-valueof2 Forthisexamplewesetk=0sothatwemaycomputeP,f(x,y)=(x,x+y).WhenwepartitiontheunitsquareintofoursquaresP=2666666641=201=2001=201=21=201=2001=201=2377777775,whichhascharacteristicpolynomial2(1)2.Weranourprocedure100timeswith106pseudorandomlygeneratedpoints(uniformly)andsawtheresultslistedintable 13-6 .AtypicalbPforfourstatesisbP2666666640.501200.4988000.500000.50000.500600.4994000.501000.4990377777775.

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142

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[1] G.Froyland,OnUlamapproximationoftheisolatedspectrumandeigenfunctionsofhyperbolicmaps,DiscreteContin.Dyn.Syst.17(3)(2007)671(electronic).URL F.Y.Hunt,UniqueergodicityandtheapproximationofattractorsandtheirinvariantmeasuresusingUlam'smethod,Nonlinearity11(2)(1998)307.URL Froyland,G.Aihara,Kazuyuki,Ulamformulaeforrandomandforcedsystems,Proceedingsofthe1998InternationalSymposiumonNonlinearTheoryanditsApplications2(1998)623. [4] S.M.Ulam,Problemsinmodernmathematics,ScienceEditionsJohnWiley&Sons,Inc.,NewYork,1964. [5] M.Dellnitz,G.Froyland,S.Sertl,OntheisolatedspectrumofthePerron-Frobeniusoperator,Nonlinearity13(4)(2000)1171.URL T.Y.Li,FiniteapproximationfortheFrobenius-Perronoperator.AsolutiontoUlam'sconjecture,J.ApproximationTheory17(2)(1976)177. [7] G.Froyland,UsingUlam'smethodtocalculateentropyandotherdynamicalinvariants,Nonlinearity12(1)(1999)79.URL J.R.Brown,Ergodictheoryandtopologicaldynamics,AcademicPress[HarcourtBraceJovanovichPublishers],NewYork,1976,pureandAppliedMathematics,No.70. [9] P.Walters,Anintroductiontoergodictheory,Vol.79ofGraduateTextsinMathematics,Springer-Verlag,NewYork,1982. [10] V.Baladi,Positivetransferoperatorsanddecayofcorrelations,Vol.16ofAdvancedSeriesinNonlinearDynamics,WorldScienticPublishingCo.Inc.,RiverEdge,NJ,2000. [11] G.Birkhoff,Threeobservationsonlinearalgebra,Univ.Nac.Tucuman.RevistaA.5(1946)147. [12] G.H.Golub,C.F.VanLoan,Matrixcomputations,3rdEdition,JohnsHopkinsStudiesintheMathematicalSciences,JohnsHopkinsUniversityPress,Baltimore,MD,1996. 143

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G.Casella,R.L.Berger,Statisticalinference,TheWadsworth&Brooks/ColeStatistics/ProbabilitySeries,Wadsworth&Brooks/ColeAdvancedBooks&Software,PacicGrove,CA,1990. [14] J.Ding,A.Zhou,FiniteapproximationsofFrobenius-Perronoperators.AsolutionofUlam'sconjecturetomulti-dimensionaltransformations,Phys.D92(1-2)(1996)61.URL P.Billingsley,Probabilityandmeasure,3rdEdition,WileySeriesinProbabilityandMathematicalStatistics,JohnWiley&SonsInc.,NewYork,1995,aWiley-IntersciencePublication. [16] M.Rao,personalcommunication(2009). [17] M.Pozniak,K.Zyczkowski,M.Kus,Composedensemblesofrandomunitarymatrices,J.Phys.A31(3)(1998)1059.URL G.Berkolaiko,Spectralgapofdoublystochasticmatricesgeneratedfromequidistributedunitarymatrices,J.Phys.A34(22)(2001)L319L326.URL M.Giona,S.Cerbelli,Connectingthespatialstructureofperiodicorbitsandinvariantmanifoldsinhyperbolicarea-preservingsystems,Phys.Lett.A347(4-6)(2005)200.URL

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AaronCarlSmithwasborninPortland,Indiana,andgrewupinAshland,Oregon.AfterservingintheUnitedStatesArmy,AaronusedtheMontgomeryGIbilltoattendtheUniversityofFlorida.Heismarriedtothemostbeautifulwomanintheworld,BridgettSmith;theyhaveawonderfuldaughter,Akiko. 145