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Optimization Methods in Financial Engineering

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Title:
Optimization Methods in Financial Engineering
Creator:
Sarykalin, Sergey Vlad
Place of Publication:
[Gainesville, Fla.]
Florida
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University of Florida
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english
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1 online resource (126 p.)

Thesis/Dissertation Information

Degree:
Doctorate ( Ph.D.)
Degree Grantor:
University of Florida
Degree Disciplines:
Industrial and Systems Engineering
Committee Chair:
Uryasev, Stanislav
Committee Members:
AitSahlia, Farid
Karceski, Jason J.
Rockafellar, Ralph T.

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Assets ( jstor )
Call options ( jstor )
Capital asset pricing models ( jstor )
Financial portfolios ( jstor )
Hedging ( jstor )
Market prices ( jstor )
Prices ( jstor )
Pricing ( jstor )
Put options ( jstor )
Stock prices ( jstor )
Industrial and Systems Engineering -- Dissertations, Academic -- UF
capm, deviation, omega, option, trading, vwap
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bibliography ( marcgt )
theses ( marcgt )
government publication (state, provincial, terriorial, dependent) ( marcgt )
born-digital ( sobekcm )
Electronic Thesis or Dissertation
Industrial and Systems Engineering thesis, Ph.D.

Notes

Abstract:
Our study developed novel approaches to solving and analyzing challenging problems of financial engineering including options pricing, market forecasting, and portfolio optimization. We also make connections of the portfolio theory with general deviation measures to classical portfolio and asset pricing theories. We consider a problem faced by traders whose performance is evaluated using the VWAP benchmark. Efficient trading market orders include predicting future volume distributions. Several forecasting algorithms based on CVaR-regression were developed for this purpose. Next, we consider assumption-free algorithm for pricing European Options in incomplete markets. A non-self-financing option replication strategy was modelled on a discrete grid in the space of time and the stock price. The algorithm was populated by historical sample paths adjusted to current volatility. Hedging error over the lifetime of the option was minimized subject to constraints on the hedging strategy. The output of the algorithm consists of the option price and the hedging strategy defined by the grid variables. Another considered problem was optimization of the Omega function. Hedge funds often use the Omega function to rank portfolios. We show that maximizing Omega function of a portfolio under positively homogeneous constraints can be reduced to linear programming. Finally, we look at the portfolio theory with general deviation measures from the perspective of the classical asset pricing theory. We derive pricing form of generalized CAPM relations and stochastic discount factors corresponding to deviation measures. We suggest methods for calibrating deviation measures using market data and discuss the possibility of restoring risk preferences from market data in the framework of the general portfolio theory. ( en )
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In the series University of Florida Digital Collections.
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Includes vita.
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Includes bibliographical references.
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This bibliographic record is available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication. The University of Florida Libraries, as creator of this bibliographic record, has waived all rights to it worldwide under copyright law, including all related and neighboring rights, to the extent allowed by law.
Thesis:
Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Florida, 2007.
Local:
Adviser: Uryasev, Stanislav.
Statement of Responsibility:
by Sergey Vlad Sarykalin.

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Copyright Sarykalin, Sergey Vlad. Permission granted to the University of Florida to digitize, archive and distribute this item for non-profit research and educational purposes. Any reuse of this item in excess of fair use or other copyright exemptions requires permission of the copyright holder.
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Table 3-1. Prices of options on the stock following the geometric Brownian motion:
calculated versus Black-Scholes prices.


Strike Calc. B-S Err( .) Calc.Vol. ( .)
Call options
1.145 0.0037 0.0038 -3.78 19.63
1.113 0.0075 0.0074 1.35 19.91
1.081 0.0134 0.0133 0.65 19.87
1.048 0.0226 0.0227 -0.04 19.79
1.016 0.0364 0.0361 0.80 19.94
1.000 0.0446 0.0445 0.19 19.82
0.968 0.0651 0.0648 0.47 19.94
0.935 0.0891 0.0892 -0.08 19.59
0.903 0.1166 0.1168 -0.11 19.29
0.871 0.1464 0.1465 -0.07 18.71
Put options
1.145 0.1274 0.1276 -0.16 19.73
1.113 0.0995 0.0994 0.04 20.03
1.081 0.0738 0.0738 0.05 20.02
1.048 0.0514 0.0514 -0.10 19.97
1.016 0.0334 0.0332 0.71 20.14
1.000 0.0258 0.0258 0.15 20.02
0.968 0.0147 0.0144 1.82 20.19
0.935 0.0070 0.0071 -1.60 19.89
0.903 0.0029 0.0031 -5.77 19.71
0.871 0.0010 0.0011 -12.88 19.52


Initial price- i .2


B-S.Vol. (

20.00
20.00
20.00
20.00
20.00
20.00
20.00
20.00
20.00
20.00

20.00
20.00
20.00
20.00
20.00
20.00
20.00
20.00
20.00
20.00


time to expiration 69 div- risk-free rate-


.) Vol.Err( .)

-1.86
-0.46
-0.65
-1.04
-0.28
-0.92
-0.31
-2.07
-3.56
-6.44

-1.36
0.17
0.12
-0.16
0.68
0.11
0.93
-0.56
-1.45
-2.41
10' volatility 21 I' 200


sample paths generated by Monte-Carlo simulation.
Strike($) option strike price, Calc. obtained option price (relative), BS Black-Scholes
option price (relative), Err=(Found BS)/BS, Calc.Vol. obtained option price in
volatility form, BS.Vol.( ) Black-Scholes volatility,
Vol.Err(,) (Calc.Vol. BS. Vol.)/BS. Vol.





























12 00%


10.00oo
-- Day 1 -7r Day 2

8.00% .
-o-Day 3 -*-Average

2 6.00%


4.00%


2.00%


0.00%
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 151719 21 23 25 27 29 31 3 35 37 39
Time

Figure 2-3. Daily volume distributions









ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

I want to thank my advisor Prof. Stan Uryasev for his guidance support, and

enthusiasm. I learned a lot from his determination and experience.

I want to thank my committee members Prof. Jason Karseski, Prof. Farid AitSahlia,

and Prof. R. Tyrrell Rockafellar for their concern and inspiration.

I want to thank my collaborators Vlad Bugera and Valeriy Ryabchekno, who were

alv--,i- great pleasure to work with.

I would like to express my deepest appreciation to my family and friends for their

constant support.









Proof: Condition (5-24) can be expressed as


1
Q0(w)>1 -SD
SM


where SV Consider a re-scaled deviation measure D
S F _-ro


AD, A > 0. Let S


be the Sharpe Ratio corresponding to D. Since master funds for ED and ED are the same,

M AM

Since the risk envelopes Q and Q for deviation measures D and ED are related as


(1 A) + AQ,


the risk identifiers Q(rm) and Q(r') will be related in the same way, as shown next.


Q(I ,0)


argmin cov(-
QEQ


I ,,Q)


argmin cov(-r, Q)
Qe(1-A)+AQ
(1 A) + A argmin cov(
QEQ
(1 A) + A argmin cov(
QEQ


' (1

-I Q)


A) + AQ)


S (1 A)+ AQ(, ,).


Finally, if (5-25) holds for D, it holds for AD as well, since


(1 A) + AQv()

AQv(Lw)


QVM(L)


> 1


> 1


> A-A
> A
>
S3


(5-25)











Table 2-3. Performance of tracking models: mixed objective, changing size of history and
best sample
S Sbest L a, /3, MAD,. SD, GMAD, GSD,'
STOCK
500 450 2 30 50 34.0 40.8 3.7 4.0
500 200 1 30 50 34.0 39.4 3.6 7.2
500 450 1 30 50 34.0 41.0 3.6 3.4
500 400 2 30 50 34.0 40.5 3.6 4.6
500 400 1 30 50 34.0 41.0 3.5 3.3
500 500 2 30 50 34.0 41.1 3.5 3.2
500 500 1 30 50 34.1 41.4 3.4 2.5
800 500 2 30 50 34.2 41.0 3.0 3.4


Table 2-4. Performance of tracking models: CVaR deviation, changing size of history and
best sample


S Sbest L MAD, .
STOCK
500 400 2 30 100 33.9
500 200 1 30 100 33.9
500 200 2 30 100 33.9
500 450 2 30 100 33.9
500 480 2 30 100 33.9
500 400 3 30 100 34.0
500 400 1 30 100 34.0
500 450 1 30 100 34.0


SD, GMAD, GSD,


40.7
39.7
39.4
40.8
40.8
40.4
41.1
41.0


Table 2-5. Performance of tracking models: mixed objective
S Sbest L a, /3, MAD, SD, GMAD, GSD,
STOCK


500 450 2 20
500 450 2 30
500 450 2 10
500 450 2 5
500 450 2 10
500 450 2 20
500 450 2 5
500 450 2 30


100 33.9
100 33.9
100 33.9
30 33.9
30 33.9
30 34.0
100 34.0
30 34.0


40.7
39.6
39.8
40.6
40.7
40.7
41.6
41.7









Abstract of Dissertation Presented to the Graduate School
of the University of Florida in Partial Fulfillment of the
Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy

OPTIMIZATION METHODS IN FINANCIAL ENGINEERING

By

Sergey V. Sarykalin

December 2007

C'!I wiC: Stanislav Uryasev
Major: Industrial and Systems Engineering

Our study developed novel approaches to solving and analyzing challenging problems

of financial engineering including options pricing, market foi I i.- and portfolio

optimization. We also make connections of the portfolio theory with general deviation

measures to classical portfolio and asset pricing theories.

We consider a problem faced by traders whose performance is evaluated using the

VWAP benchmark. Efficient trading market orders include predicting future volume

distributions. Several forecasting algorithms based on CVaR-regression were developed for

this purpose.

Next, we consider assumption-free algorithm for pricing European Options in

incomplete markets. A non-self-financing option replication strategy was modelled on

a discrete grid in the space of time and the stock price. The algorithm was populated by

historical sample paths adjusted to current volatility. Hedging error over the lifetime of

the option was minimized subject to constraints on the hedging strategy. The output of

the algorithm consists of the option price and the hedging strategy defined by the grid

variables.

Another considered problem was optimization of the Omega function. Hedge funds

often use the Omega function to rank portfolios. We show that maximizing Omega

function of a portfolio under positively homogeneous constraints can be reduced to linear

programming.









Comparison at step 1. C'! .... ; the model may entail modelling error. For

example, stocks are approximately follow the geometric Brownian motion. However, the

Black-Scholes prices of options would fail to reproduce the market volatility smile.

Our algorithm does not rely on some specific model and does not have errors related

to the choice of the specific process. Also, we have realistic assumptions, such as discrete

trading, non-self-financing hedging strategy, and possibility to introduce transaction costs

(this feature is not directly presented in the paper).

Calibration of process-specific methods usually require a small amount of market

data. Our algorithm competes well in this respect. We impose constraints reducing

feasible set of hedging strategies, which allows pricing with very small number of sample

paths.

Comparison at step 2. If the price process is identified correctly, the process-specific

methods may provide an accurate pricing. Our algorithm may not have any advantages in

such cases. However, the advantage of our algorithm may be significant if the price process

cannot be clearly identified and the use of the process-specific methods would contain a

significant modelling error.

Comparison at step 3. To perform back-testing, the hedging strategy, implied by a

pricing method, is implemented on historical price paths. The back-testing hedging error is

a measure of practical usefulness of the algorithm.

The major advantage of our algorithm is that the errors of back-testing in our

case can be much lower than the errors of process-specific methods. The reason being,

the minimization of the back-testing error on historical paths is the objective in our

algorithm. Minimization of the squared error on historical paths ensures that the need

of additional financing to practically hedge the option is the lowest possible. None of the

process-specific methods possess this property.









The expected gain with respect to the hurdle rate rh is


1 T
q(x) T -L(t,x).
t=1

Assumption (Al)

We make the assumption that there are no x / 0 such that L(t, x) = 0 for all

t =1, ..., T. In other words, we assume that there are N linear independent vectors among


t Fl, ** ], t it T.

Since the number of scenarios T is usually much 'i.r-. -r than the number of instruments N

in the portfolio, the assumption Al is almost ahv--, satisfied. This assumption prohibits

the case when both functions q(x) and rl(x) simultaneously equal to zero for some x / 0.

The Omega function is the ratio of the two partial moments

r(x)


which can be expressed as

rq(x) rq(x) rq(x) + rq(x) q(x) + rq(x) q(x)
(x q(x) q(x) q(x) i+ x)'

Note that both functions q(x) and qr(x) are positively homogeneous' This is trivial

for q(x) as it is linear with respect to x, and holds for qr(x) since linearity of the loss

function L(t, x) with respect to x implies




qr(Ax) i L(t, Ax)T i L(t,Ax)/T i) AL(t,x)/T AT (x).
tIs+ (AX) tES+ (x) tES+ (x)



1 A function f(x) is called positively homogeneous if f(Ax) = Af(x) for all A > 0.









Taking partial derivatives of C(S, T, X) with respect to S and t, we obtain


C'(S,T, X)= U(S,T,X)= (S,T,X)= N(d,),


exp (T(r+ )+ ))} (-T(2r + 2) + 21n (4))
C,(S, T,X) U,(S, T, X) 3

The sign of UJ(S, T, X) is determined by the sign of the expression F(S) -T(2r + c2) +

2 In () F(S) > 0 (implying U (S,T,X) > 0) when S > L and F(S) < 0 (implying

Uti(S,T,X) < 0) when S < L, where L X eT(r+2/2)

For the values of r = 1' a = 31 T = 49 d ,v L differs from X less than

2.5'. For all options considered in the case study the value of implied volatility did not

exceed 31 and the corresponding value of L differs from the stike price less than 2.5'.

Taking into account resolution of the grid, we consider the approximation of L by X in the

horizonal monotonicity constraints to be reasonable. U

4) Convexity (Call options).

U(S, t, X) is a concave function of S when S > X,

U(S, t, X) is a convex function of S when S < X.

O We used MATHEMATICA to find the second derivative of the Black-Scholes

option price with respect to the stock price (Us (S, t, X)). The expression of the second

derivative is quite involved and we do not present it here. It can be seen that US(S, t, X)

as a function of S has an inflexion point. Above this point U(S, t, X) is concave with

respect to S and below this point U(S, t, X) is convex with respect to S. We calculated

inflexion points for some options and presented the results in the Table (3-7).

The Error( .) column contains errors of approximating inflexion points by strike

prices. These errors do not exceed :'. for a broad range of parameters. We conclude that

inflexion points can be approximated by strike prices for options considered in the case

study. U

Next, we justify the constraints (3-24)-(3-27) for put options.









The measure D3 1.... ,(X) is coherent if the lowest value of members of Qap..., p (X) are

greater than zero, i.e.

a < 2.
i= 1
It is important to mention that a mixed measure D3, ..... (X) can be coherent even if

the some of its components are not. For example, combining the non-coherent measure

CVaR45%(-X+EX) and a coherent one CVaRa(-X+EX), f > 1/2, with equal weights,

we get a coherent mixed measure

1 1
,. < CVaR45%(-X +EX) + -CVaR(-X + EX),
2 2

when 3 > 9/16.

5.6 Conclusions

Discount factors corresponding to generalized CAPM relations exist and depend on

risk identifiers for master funds. The projection of these discount factors on the space of

asset p .,voffs coincides with the discount factor corresponding to the standard deviation.

It is possible to calibrate the deviation measure in the general portfolio theory from

market data if a parametrization of the deviation measure is assumed. One of candidate

parameterizations is mixed-CVaR deviation of gains and losses. The risk identifier of

CVaR and mixed-CVaR deviations of losses are derived and coherence of these deviation

measures is examined.









The algorithm uses the hedging portfolio to approximate the price of the option. We

aimed at making the hedging strategy close to real-life trading. The actual trading occurs

at discrete times and is not self-financing at re-balancing points. The shortage of money

should be covered at any discrete point. Large shortages are undesirable at any time

moment, even if self-financing is present.

The pricing algorithm described in this paper combines the features of the above

approaches in the following way. We construct a hedging portfolio consisting of the

underlying stock and a risk-free bond and use its value as an approximation to the

option price. We aimed at making the hedging strategy close to real-life trading. The

actual trading occurs at discrete times and is not self-financing at re-balancing points.

The shortage of money should be covered at any discrete point. Large shortages

are undesirable at any time moment, even if self-financing is present. We consider

non-self-financing hedging strategies. External financing of the portfolio or withdrawal

is allowed at any re-balancing point. We use a set of sample paths to model the underlying

stock behavior. The position in the stock and the amount of money invested in the bond

(hedging variables) are modelled on nodes of a discrete grid in time and the stock price.

Two matrices defining stock and bond positions on grid nodes completely determine the

hedging portfolio on any price path of the underlying stock. Also, they determine amounts

of money added to/taken from the portfolio at re-balancing points. The sum of squares

of such additions/subtractions of money on a path is referred to as the squared error on a

path.

The pricing problem is reduced to quadratic minimization with constraints. The

objective is the averaged quadratic error over all sample paths; the free variables are stock

and bond positions defined in every node of the grid. The constraints, limiting the feasible

set of hedging strategies, restrict the portfolio values estimating the option price and stock

positions. We required that the average of total external financing over all paths equals

to zero. This makes the strategy "self-financing on avi I, We incorporated monotonic,









a) For any a E [0, 1] the following inequality is valid:


P(S,X -a)

D Consider portfolio A consisting of one option with strike a X, and portfolio

B consisting of a options with strike X. We need to show that portfolio B ah--iv

outperforms portfolio A. This follows from non-arbitrage consideration since at expiration

the value of portfolio B is greater or equal to the value of portfolio A: [X a ST]+ <

a [X ST]+, 0 < a < 1. 0

b) For any S1, S2, S1 < S2, there holds P(S2,T,X) < P(S, T,X).

D Consider an inequality P(SI, aX) < aP(SI, X), 0 < a < 1, proved above. Set

a = S1/S2 c [0, 1]. Applying the weak scaling property, we get

1
P(S1 -a,, T, aX) < aP(SI, T, X),
a
1
P(S -,T,X) < P(S, T, X),
a
P(S2,T,X) < P(S, T,X).


5. Horizontal option price monotonicity.

Under assumptions 1, 2, and 3, for any initial times t and u, t < u, the following

inequality is valid:


P(t, S, T, X) > P(u, S, T, X) + X (e-r.(T-) -r(T-u))


where P(r, S, T, X) is the price of a European put option with initial price 7, initial price

at time 7 equal to S, time to maturity T, and strike X.

6. Convexity.

a) P(S, T, X) is a convex function of its exercise price X

b) Under assumption 4, P(S, T, X) is a convex function of the stock price.









Formula (5-10) is the risk-adjusted pricing form of generalized CAPM relations (5-2)

(compare with (5-10)), where the risk-adjusted rate of return is



TVM)
E, ro
rm(ri) r0 + D(r ) cov(-r4, Q ). (5 11)


ErM r0
The quantity D(r) which we denote by SD, in (5-8) and (5-10) is the

generalized Sharpe Ratio for the master fund. It shows what increase in excess return

can be obtained by increasing the deviation of the asset by 1. In the classical portfolio

theory, master fund has the highest Sharpe Ratio among all assets. The same result holds

in the generalized setting as we show next.

Lemma 2. For the case of the master fund of positive ';'. the master fund has the

highest generalized Shapre Ratio in the econ.-'i,, i.e.

ErM ro Eri ro
> ,i ... n. (51 2)
D(rD)- (r )

Proof: Consider generalized CAPM relations

cov(- r, Q )
Er ro = (r) [Er- ro]

for some asset i > 0. The generalized Sharpe Ratio for the master fund is strictly positive
Er ro
SM = D(r > 0 since E, 7 ro > 0 and D( 7) > 0.

Eri ro
If cov(-r, QD) 0, then Eri = ro, therefore D = 0, and (5-12) holds.

Eri ro
If cov(-ri, QD) < 0, then Er, < ro, therefore < 0, and (5-12) holds.
D(r)
If cov(-ri, QD) > 0, then according to the dual representation of D(ri), we have


D(ri) max cov(-ri, Q) > cov(-rr, Q ) > 0,
QEQ









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the risk identifier QV(wo) depends on u through rv, Qv(Wo) = Q(r' (w)). For example,
for the case of standard deviation D = a

r', (L.) E r'
rM()- Er
QM P( () 1 (

so Q(w( = Q((r ,(w)).
Equation (5-31) becomes


q"(ry) = (1 + rno m(r')p(r, r..., r', )dr ...dr dr,
4"(r') = (1 + ro)m'(r) p(r'), rf, ..., r ', )dr ...dr di,

q(r') (1 + ro)M(r)p(), (5-32)

where p(r) f,, p(r', r', ..., r, f)dr[...dr'dr is the actual marginal distribution of the

master fund.

Relationship (5-29) is now transformed into

q(i7) (1 + ro)n(ir)p( r), (5 33)

where = 7 ,(w). This relationship provide the basis for calibration of D. Let q(1' T)
denote the true risk-neutral distribution of the master fund. Both functions q(rv) and

(i 7,) can be estimated from market data; the error in estimation of q(i 7) by q4rv) in
(5 33) is minimized with respect to D.
First, we consider estimation of q(r ). Let q(u) be the true market risk-neutral

distribution, q(r') = q(r', r ...., r', r)dr...dr'dr. Applying formula (5-30) with q(w)
for pricing an option on the master fund, we get

1 f t P)41
tc r= (cr'd.)q( ,r'I ..drdr I \k i ,)dr( if M
1 + ro r 1 + ro

where r, and (c are the price and the 1 ,-off of the option.









reader is referred to Rockafellar and Uryasev (2002) and Rockafellar et al. (2005a, 2006)

for details.

5.1.2 General Portfolio Theory

The general portfolio theory (Rockafellar et al. (2005a)) is derived in the following

framework. The market consists of n risky assets with rates of return modelled by r.v.'s ri

for i = 1,..., n and a risk-free asset with the constant rate of return modelled by a constant

r.v. ro. Several modelling assumptions are made about these rates of returns.

Investors solve the following portfolio optimization problem.


min D(xoro + xiri + ... + xr) (5-1)

s.t. E(xoro + x1ir + ... + Xnr) > ro + A

xo + l + +... + = 1

xi E R, i = 0,..., n.


In the case of a finite and continuous deviation measure D, generalized CAPM

relations come out as necessary and sufficient conditions for optimality in the above

problem. It was shown in Rockafellar et al. (2005b) that problem (5-1) has three different

types of solution depending on the magnitude of the risk-free rate, corresponding to cases

of the master fund of positive type, the master fund of negative type, and the master

fund of threshold type. Master fund of positive type is the one most commonly observed

in the market, when return of the market portfolio is greater than the risk free rate, and

investors would take long positions in the master fund when forming their portfolios.

In this paper, we consider the case of master funds of positive type and the

corresponding CAPM-relations

cov(-rs,, Qj)
Eri ro = D(r) [E I ro], i = ..., n, (5-2)









This is true for continuous distributions of r{, and usually holds in practice when the

distribution of the master fund is modelled by scenarios.

Assumption A2 cannot be satisfied for worst-case deviation and semideviations, see

Rockafellar et al. (2006)

Under assumptions Al and A2, all quantities in generalized CAPM relations are fixed

and well-defined, and the relations represent pricing equilibrium. In further chapters we

will closely examine generalized CAPM relations under these assumptions.

5.2 Intuition Behind Generalized CAPM Relations

5.2.1 Two Ways to Account For Risk

Consider an asset with price 7 and uncertain future p lioff (. In a risk-neutral world,

the asset will be priced as follows.


= E[ (5-3)
1 + ro

where ro is a risk-free rate of return. The price of an asset is the discounted expected

value of its future p ivoff. The asset with random p i-off ( would have the same price as an

asset with 1p ]Ii = E[(] with probability 1 in the future.

If the risk is present, the price of an asset p liing ( with certainty in future would,

generally speaking, differ from the price of the asset having random p i-off (, such that

E[(] = The formula (5-3) needs to be corrected for risk. There are two --- -4 to do it.

The first way is to modify the discounted quantity:


7- = 0 (asset), (5-4)
l+ ro

where J(asset) is called the cer'ah',,l equivalent. It is a function of asset parameters and

is equal to the p i-off of a risk-free asset having the same price as the risky asset with

1p 'ioff (.










allocated to strategy m, m = 1,..., M. The following optimization problem allocates

money to groups of managers with similar strategies and to individual managers within

each strategy.


q(w)
max Q (w)= 1 +

s.t.

S1 "' = 1 budget constraint,

bK < E:j wj < b, m 1, ...,n M constraints on allocation to strategies,

i < "' < Ui, where 1i > -oo, i = 1, ...,I box constraints for individual positions,

e R, i = 1,..., I.
(4-4)

The constraint zfi -, x 1 allows to rewrite the set of constraints


bl< xj < b, m= ...,M, (4-5)
J Jr,

li < Xi < Ui, i = 1, (4-6)


in the following form

I I
b x s< xj ,< b zx, m ..., M, (4-7)
i= 1 jEJ i 1
I I
Sj xi < Xi < uiy xi, i = 1, ..., 1. (4-8)
i 1 i 1

For any x satisfying (4-7)-(4-8), Ax for A > 0 will also satisfy (4-7)-(4-8). Therefore,

constraints (4-7)-(4-8) are special case of the constraints of type (4-3).

According to Theorem 1, the problem (4-4) can be reduced to the following problem.









For the case of scenarios (2-9), the optimization problem is

is
min DMAD S Ys cX cX d (2-12)


2.3.2 CVaR-objective

The objective we used in the second regression model will be referred to as CVaR-

objective. Mean-absolute deviation equally penalizes all outcomes of the approximation

error (2-10), however our intention penalize the largest (by the absolute value) outcomes

of the error. To give a more formal definition of the CVaR-objective and show the

relevance of using it in regression problems, wee need to refer to the newly developed

theory of deviation measures and generalized linear regression, see Rockafellar et al.

(2002b).

CVaR-objective consists of two CVaR-deviations (Rockafellar et al. (2005a)) and

penalizes the a-highest and the a-lowest outcomes of the estimation error (2-10) for

a specified confidence level a (a is usually expressed in percentages). We will use a

combination of CVaR-deviations as an objective:


DCVaR(c) = CVaRf(c) + CVaR(-e) = (2-13)

= CVaR(c) + CVaR(-Q).


This expression is the difference between the average of a highest outcomes of random

variable X and the average of a lowest outcomes of X.

DCvaR(c) does not depend on the free term d in (2-8) and the minimization (2-13)

determines the optimal values of variables c, ..., c, only. The optimal value of the term d

can be found from different considerations; we use the condition that the estimator (2-8)

is non-biased.









obtained proportions will sum up to one, since our procedure of finding each proportion

, does not take into account the previously found proportions vj, j < i. To avoid this

problem, we construct the distribution using the fractions of the remaining volume, that

has not yet been traded at current time, rather than of the total daily volume. To make

it more rigorous, suppose that (VI, V2, ..., VN) is the distribution of volume (in number of

stocks) during a div. In terms of fractions of the daily volume this distribution can be

represented as

(v1, v2, ...,VUN), '

An alternative representation is


(W W2, ..., N), tk', = '
ij=k Vy

where 1,,, is a fraction of the remaining volume after the (k 1)t interval, that is traded

during the kth interval. Figure 2-1 demonstrates the two representations of the volume

distribution. Note, that WN is al- i- equal to 1. There is a one-to-one correspondence

between representations (vi, ..., Nv) and (w1, ..., wN); the transitions between them are

given by formulas


wi "t, k= 2,..., N (2-6)
1 ii 1

and
k-1
Vi1 =W1, vk (1 t), k 2,...,N. (2-7)
i=1

The last equations follow from the fact that


(1 (1- 0-i'_ ) ..." (1- *-t _. ) t= ... .m = 1,...,i- 1.
Vi-m + --- + VN

Thus, for each interval i we make a forecast of the fraction i, of the remaining

volume. The fraction i, corresponds to the amount of the stock Vit' = r ,,, to be









TABLE OF CONTENTS
page

ACKNOW LEDGMENTS ................................. 4

LIST OF TABLES ....................... ............. 7

LIST OF FIGURES .................................... 8

ABSTRACT . . . . . . . . . . 9

CHAPTER

1 INTRODUCTION ...................... .......... 11

2 TRACKING VOLUME WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE ........... 13

2.1 Introduction . .. . . . . . . .. 13
2.2 Background and Preliminary Remarks ................. 15
2.3 General Description of Regression Model .................. 18
2.3.1 Mean-Absolute Error ................... .... 18
2.3.2 CVaR-objective ................... ..... 19
2.3.3 M ixed Objective .................... ........ 20
2.4 Experiments and Analysis .................. ........ .. 21
2.4.1 M odel Design .................. ........... .. 21
2.4.2 Nearest Sample .................. ...... 23
2.4.3 Data Set ................. . . .... 23
2.4.4 Evaluation of Model Performance ................. 23
2.5 Experiments and Results .................. ......... .. 25
2.6 Conclusions .................. ................ .. 27

3 PRICING EUROPEAN OPTIONS BY NUMERICAL REPLICATION ..... 32

3.1 Introduction .................. ................ .. 32
3.2 Framework and Notations .................. ........ .. 37
3.2.1 Portfolio Dynamics and Squared Error ............... .. 37
3.2.2 Hedging Strategy .................. ......... .. 38
3.3 Algorithm for Pricing Options .................. ..... .. 41
3.3.1 Optimization Problem .................. ..... .. 41
3.3.2 Financial Interpretation of the Objective . . ..... 44
3.3.3 Constraints .................. ............ .. 45
3.3.4 Transaction Costs ...... . . .......... 45
3.4 Justification Of Constraints On Option Values And Stock Positions .. 46
3.4.1 Constraints for Put Options ................... . .46
3.4.2 Justification of Constraints on Option Values . . ... 47
3.4.3 Justification of Constraints on Stock Position . . 55
3.5 Case Study .................. ................ .. 58









to be non-self-financing and minimize cumulative hedging error over all sample paths.

The constraints on the hedging strategy, incorporated into the optimization problem,

reflect assumption-free properties of the option price, positions in the stock and in the

risk-free bond. The algorithm synthesizes these properties with the stock price information

contained in the historical sample paths to find the price of option from the point of view

of a trader.

C'! lpter 4 proves two reduction theorems for the Omega function maximization

problem. Omega function is a common criterion for ranking portfolios. It is equal to the

ratio of expected overperformance of a portfolio with respect to a benchmark (hurdle rate)

to expected underperformance of a portfolio with respect to the same benchmark. The

Omega function is a non-linear function of a portfolio return; however, it is positively

homogeneous with respect to instrument exposures in a portfolio. This property allows

transformation of the Omega maximization problem with positively homogeneous

constraints into a linear programming problem in the case when the Omega function

is greater than one at optimality.

C'! lpter 5 looks at the portfolio theory with general deviation measures from the

perspective of the classical asset pricing theory. In particular, we analyze the generalized

CAPM relations, which come out as a necessary and sufficient conditions for optimality in

the general portfolio theory. We derive pricing forms of the generalized CAPM relations

and show how the stochastic discount factor emerges in the generalized portfolio theory.

We develop methods of calibrating deviation measures from market data and discuss

applicability of these methods to estimation of risk preferences of market participants.









3.6 Conclusions and Future Research

We presented an approach to pricing European options in incomplete markets. The

pricing problem is reduced to minimization of the expected quadratic error subject to

constraints. To price an option we solve the quadratic programming problem and find a

hedging strategy minimizing the risk associated with it. The hedging strategy is modelled

by two matrices representing the stock and the bond positions in the portfolio depending

upon time and the stock price. The constraints on the option value impose the properties

of the option value following from general non-arbitrage considerations. The constraints on

the stock position incorporate requirements on "smoothness" of the hedging strategy. We

tested the approach with options on the stock following the geometric Brownian motion

and with actual market prices for S&P 500 index options.

This paper is the first in the series of papers devoted to implementation of the

developed algorithm to various types of options. Our target is pricing American--I ile and

exotic options and treatment actual market conditions such as transaction costs, slippage

of hedging positions, hedging options with multiple instruments and other issues. In this

paper we established basics of the method; the subsequent papers will concentrate on more

complex cases.









solutions. By Lemma 1, the problem Po can be reduced to Po. The following sequence
of reductions of the problem PO leads to the problem 'P,<1.

(1/) (2) (') (T/
P = max (x) < max (x) -4 max Q (x) < max q(x) < max q(x)= P, K Dq+ D,+ D,= D,+ 0 D,+ D,+ 0n ,<

(1') Since (x) > 1 for any x e Dq+ and (x) < 1 otherwise. Therefore, the maximum in

PO will never be attained in the set Dq_.
(2') Let x* be solution to maxDq+ (x), x** be solution to maXDq nD0 1 (().
Then maxDq +n l (x) < Q(x*). Take A* 1/((x*), then r(A*x*) = and

2(A*x*) (x*), so x** = A*x*.
q(x) q(x)\
(3') maXDq 0nD,, 1 + maxD D, t = 1+ -) 1 + maXDq +nD, q(x).

(4') Suppose that x* is the solution to maxDq+ED ,< q(x) and ql(x*) < 1. Take
A* 1/t(x*) > 1. Then qr(A*x*) = 1, q(A*x*) = A*q(x*) > q(x*), which is a contradiction.

Therefore, rl(x) = 1 at optimality in problem P,<1, and the equivalence (4') is justified.

Now consider the case Dq+ n K = 0. Definitions of functions q(x) and rl(x) imply

that Dq_ D,=o = 0, so rl(x) > 0 for any x E K,. By the same argument as above, both
problems Po and P1>1 have finite solutions, and Po PO.

First, consider the case when Dq=o n K / 0. In this case, the optimal solution x* to

Po gives Q(x*) = 1, and q(x*) = 0, Tl(x*) > 0. Taking A* 1/l(x*), yields q(A*x*) = 0,
q(A*x*) = 1, so x**A*x* is the optimal solution to 'P,>1, and q(x**) = 0.
If Dq=o n K, = 0, then q(x) < 0 for all x E Dq_. The following sequence of
reductions leads to the problem P,>1.

(1") (.. 3//)
P = max Q(x) max Q(x) max q(x) max q(x) = P>1.
Dq- Dq- nD,=l Dq nOD,=1 Dq nD,>

(1") and (2") are proven similarly to (1') and (2'), so here we consider (3"). We need to

show that if x* is the optimal solution to P,>1, then l(x*) = 1. Indeed, suppose that









Tables 3-1, 3-3, and 3-4 report "relaul', values of strikes and option prices, i.e.

strikes and prices divided by the initial stock price. Prices of options are also given in

the implied volatility format, i.e., for actual and calculated prices we found the volatility

implied by the Black-Scholes formula.

3.5.1 Pricing European options on the stock following the geometric brown-
ian motion

We used a Monte-Carlo simulation to create 200 sample paths of the stock process

following the geometric brownian motion with drift 10C' and volatility 21i' The initial

stock price is set to $ 62; time to maturity is 69 d4i-- Calculations are made for 10 values

of the strike price, varying from $ 54 to $ 71. The calculated results and Black-Scholes

prices for European call options are presented in Table 3-1.

Table 1 shows quite reasonable performance of the algorithm: the errors in the price

(Err( .), Table 3-1) are less than for most of calculated put and call options.

Also, it can be seen that the volatility is quite flat for both call and put options.

The error of implied volatility does not exceed for most call and put options

(Vol.Err( .), Table 3-1). The volatility error slightly increases for out-of-the-money

puts and in-the-money calls.

3.5.2 Pricing European options on S&P 500 Index

The set of options used to test the algorithm is given in Table 3-2. The actual market

price of an option is assumed to be the average of its bid and ask prices. The price of the

S&P 500 index was modelled by historical sample-paths. Non-overlapping paths of the

index were taken from the historical data set and normalized such that all paths have the

same initial price So. Then, the set of paths was i .i-- i,' d" to change the spread of paths

until the option with the closest to at-the-money strike is priced correctly. This set of

paths with the adjusted volatility was used to price options with the remaining strikes.

Table 3-3 di-pl'i--1 the results of pricing using 100 historical sample-paths. The pricing

error (see Err( .), Table 3-3) is around 1.0' for all call and put options and increases









significantly depend on a method used. Second challenge is estimation of the function

F(rTM). Discount factors ma(rM) may be close to zero for some values of rM, which makes

accuracy of estimation of 4t(rM) crucial for calculation of densities pF(rM) and even more

crucial for calculation of y4, t = 1, ..., T. It follows that risk preferences obtained using

implementation II can only be trusted if the underlying numerical methods are very

reliable.

There is one more drawback of this implementation when it is in the general portfolio

theory. When using numerical estimation of risk-neutral densities, we have to assume

that no arbitrage opportunities exist in the prices of options from the cross-section. This

implies that only strictly positive discount factors m'(rM) should be used for calibration.

Indeed, if m'(rM(u)) < 0 with positive probability, then estimates of the risk-neutral

density (T(rM) = (1 + ro)m (rM)p(rM) can be negative, and the hypothesis that the true

risk-neutral densities qt(rM(u)) > 0 (estimated from options cross-section) are equal to

the estimated densities ff(rM) does not make sense. However, it is not clear at this point,

which deviation measures have the property that mS(w) > 0 with probability 1.

Finally, there is an issue relevant to estimation of return distributions of assets based

on their historical returns. Historical data may contain outliers or effects of rare historical

events. After such "cleaning historical data may provide more reliable conclusions.

However, filtering historical data from historical effects is an open question.

5.5 Coherence of Mixed CVaR-Deviation

One of the flexible parameterizations of a deviation measure is mixed CVaR-deviation

of gains and losses. One of desirable properties of deviation measures is coherence.

Coherent deviation measures express risk preferences which are more appealing from the

point of view financial intuition and optimization than the deviation measures lacking

coherence. In this section, we examine coherence of the mixed CVaR-deviation of gains

and losses









Since U(S, t, X) increases with S, for any S > S* we have U(S, t, X) > a,

j U(s, t, X)ds > j2 ads, C(S, t,X) C(S*, t,X) > aS aS*, C(S,T,x) >
C(S*,t, X) aS* + aS, C(S,t, X) > S + (a 1)S + C(S*,t, X) aS*.

Let f(s) = (a )s + C(S*) aS*. Since (a 1) > 0, there exists such S, > S* that

f(SI) > 0. This implies C(S1, t, X) > S1 which contradicts inequality C(S, t, X) < S. 0

The previous inequalities were justified in a quite general setting of assumptions 1-5

and a non-arbitrage assumption. We did not manage to prove the following two groups

of inequalities (horizontal monotonicity and convexity) in this general setting. The proofs

will be provided in further papers. However, here we present proofs of these inequalities in

the Black-Scholes setting.

3) Horizontal monotoe :. .1: (Call options)

U(S, t, X) is an increasing function of t when S > X,

U(S, t, X) is a decreasing function of t when S < X.

O We will validate these inequalities by analyzing the Black-Scholes formula and

calculating the areas of horizontal monotonicities for the options used in the case study.

The Black-Scholes formula for the price of a call option is


C(S,T,X) S N(d) XeTN(-d2),

where S is the stock price, T is time to maturity, r is a risk-free rate, a is the volatility,

1 fy z2
N(y) =e 2 dZ, (3-29)

and di and d2 are given by expressions

1 SerT 1
dl In X + a ,
an X( )+aT

T1 Se, 1
d2 (tr I -J T.
aT XJ









another source of improving "smoothness" of a hedging strategy with respect to time. The

average squared error penalizes all shortages/excesses ap of money along the paths, which

tends to flatten the values a over time. This also improves the "smoothness" of the stock

positions with respect to time.

3.4 Justification Of Constraints On Option Values And Stock Positions

3.4.1 Constraints for Put Options

This subsection presents constraints in optimization problem (3-9) for pricing

European put options.

Constraints on value of Put options.

Immediate (::; i, -. constraints.


P > Xe- -'T sk (3-19)

Option price sensitivity constraints.

pk (3-20)
j 0,...,N 1, k = 1,...,K 1.

Monotonicity constraints.

0. Vertical monotonicity.


P j 1 j 0,...,N; k 1,..., K (3-21)

0. Horizontal monotonicity.


Pl < Pk + X(e-r(T-tj+l) e-(T-tj)), = 0,...,N 1; k =1,...,K. (3-22)

Convexity constraints.

p+l < Q k+lpk + (1 Di klpk+2

where 3+l is such that S,+1 Q+1, + (1 +1)S +2 (3-23)

j = 0,...,N; k = ,...,K -2.









preferences of investors holding this index. Derivatives on assets have non-linear p li-offs

and cannot be replicated by p ,lioffs of these assets. The second calibration method applied

to pricing derivatives on some stocks is expected to give similar risk preferences as the first

calibration method applied to pricing the same stocks, where the master fund is taken to

be the index representing these stocks. If the so-obtained risk preferences do not agree,

either the general portfolio theory is does not adequately represent the chosen part of the

market or option prices are significantly influenced by factors, not captured by the risk

preferences of investors holding the corresponding index in their portfolios.

5.4.2 Notations

We consider two implementations of calibration methods. We assume that the

index-associated group of assets consists of n assets with rates of return rl, ..., r,, the

master fund associated with the deviation measure D is a portfolio of these assets and the

risk-free asset with the rate of return ro; the rate of return of the master fund is r%. The

target group of assets consists of k assets with rates of return r',..., r'. The target assets

may or may not belong to the index-associated group.

For the purposes of calibration, we assume a parametrization of a deviation measure

S= D,, where a = (a, ..., al) is a vector of parameters.

5.4.3 Implementation I of Calibration Methods

The first implementation is based on direct estimation of expected returns of target

assets and minimization of the estimation error with respect to parameters d. Let

Ef'(a) = (Er(a),..., Er'(a)) be a vector of expected returns of target assets estimated

using the deviation measure D,, Er' = (Er,..., Er') be a vector of the true expected

rates of return, and Dist(Er', Ef'(a)) be a measure of distance between the two vectors.

The parameters a the deviation measure can be calibrated by solving the following














Table 3-3. Pricing options on S&P 500 index: 100 paths
Strike Cale. Actual Err( .) Calc.Vol.(' ) Act.Vol.( ) Vol.Err( .)
Call options
1.119 0.0002 0.0003 -40.00 13.17 14.14 -6.82
1.098 0.0005 0.0005 -5.28 12.80 12.92 -0.90
1.077 0.0013 0.0012 11.57 12.70 12.40 2.42
1.056 0.0035 0.0033 5.70 13.03 12.80 1.78
1.035 0.0079 0.0077 3.15 13.38 13.18 1.52
1.022 0.0117 0.0118 -0.75 13.43 13.49 -0.48
1.014 0.0156 0.0154 1.32 13.91 13.77 1.03
1.005 0.0195 0.0195 0.01 14.07 14.06 0.01
0.993 0.0269 0.0269 0.18 14.63 14.60 0.23
0.971 0.0416 0.0414 0.50 15.57 15.40 1.09
0.950 0.0589 0.0582 1.12 16.81 16.13 4.25
0.929 0.0775 0.0770 0.62 18.04 17.35 3.94
0.422 0.5789 0.5771 0.33 69.39 N/A N/A
Put options
1.267 0.2633 0 2'i : -0.20 22.50 29.02 -22.44
1.098 0.0956 0.0960 -0.47 13.88 15.14 -8.35
1.077 0.0756 0.0759 -0.36 13.71 14.18 -3.32
1.035 0.0406 0.0405 0.33 14.22 14.11 0.77
1.022 0.0319 0.0320 -0.25 14.29 14.35 -0.40
1.014 0.0274 0.0270 1.26 14.75 14.51 1.62
1.005 0.0229 0.0229 -0.01 14.89 14.90 -0.01
0.993 0.0176 0.0174 1.38 15.47 15.30 1.10
0.971 0.0111 0.0112 -0.52 16.43 16.47 -0.28
0.950 0.0070 0.0072 -1.95 17.58 17.72 -0.79
0.929 0.0045 0.0046 -3.42 18.84 19.05 -1.09
0.908 0.0028 0.0031 -10.00 20.02 20.57 -2.68
0.887 0.0015 0.0022 -32.27 20.46 22.24 -7.99
0.866 0.0011 0.0015 -26.00 22.46 23.78 -5.54
Initial price=$1183.77, time to expiration 49 div~ risk-free rate 2.;'. Stock price is
modelled with 100 sample paths. Grid dimensions: P = 15, N = 49.
Strike option strike price (relative), Calc. calculated option price (relative),
Actual actual option price (relative), Err (Calc. Actual)/Actual, Calc.Vol. calculated
option price in volatility form, Act.Vol.( )actual option price in volatility terms,
Vol.Err( -)=(Calc.Vol. Act.Vol.)/Act.Vol.









where Q is the risk envelope for the deviation measure D, and QM e Q. Dividing both

sides of generalized CAPM relations by cov(-r>, QM), we get

E, ro Eri ro Eri ro
D(r") cov r, Q ) > (ri)



Formulas (5-8) and (5-10) imply that the risk adjustment is determined by the

correlation of the asset rate of return with the risk identifier of the master fund.

To gain a better intuition about the meaning of this form of risk adjustment, we

compare the classical CAPM formula with the generalized CAPM relations for the

CVaR-deviation D(X) CVaRf (X) CVaR(X EX).

First note, that more valuable assets are those with lower returns. When pricing two

assets with the same expected return, investors will p .iv higher price for a more valuable

asset, therefore its return will be lower than that of the less valuable asset.

We begin by analyzing the classical CAPM formula written in the form


Er, r + covr, M (ErM ), (5-13)


where the left-hand side of the equation is the asset return. The return is governed by the

correlation of the asset rate of return with the market portfolio rate of return, i.e. by the

quantity cov(ri, rM). Assets with higher return correlation with the market portfolio have

higher expected returns, and vice versa. Formula (5-14) implies that assets with lower

correlation with the market are more valuable. There is the following intuition behind

this result. Investors hold the market portfolio and the risk-free asset; the proportions

of holdings depend on the target expected portfolio return. The only source of risk of

such investments is introduced by the performance of the market portfolio. The most

undesirable states of future are those where market portfolio returns are low. The assets

with higher p li-off in such states would be more valued, since they serve as insurance

against poor performance of the market portfolio. Therefore, the lower the correlation of









3.3 Algorithm for Pricing Options

This section presents an algorithm for pricing European options in incomplete

markets. Subsection 3.1, presents the formulation of the algorithm; subsections 3.2 3.4

discuss the choice of the objective and the constraints of the optimization problem.

3.3.1 Optimization Problem

The price of the option is found by solving the following minimization problem.

N P
mmin S- EE ({ S + v I (1 + r)v I}e-r")2 (3-9)
j=1 p=l

subject to
tN P
EE {upsp + -u Is (1 + r)v }e -
j=1 p=1

UNk+ + V = h(), k 1,...,K,

approximation rules (3-6),

constraints (3-10)-(3-18) (defined below) for call options,

or constraints (3-19)-(3-27) (defined below) for put options,

free variables: U k, j = 0,..., N, k= 1,..., K.

The objective function in (3-9) is the average squared error on the set of paths (3-5). The

first constraint requires that the average value of total external financing over all paths

equals to zero. The second constraint equates the value of the portfolio and the option

p ioff at expiration. Free variables in this problem are the grid variables Uf and Vk; the

path variables up and vo in the objective are expressed in terms of the grid variables using

approximation (3-6). The total number of free variables in the problem is determined

by the size of the grid and is independent of the number of sample-paths. After solving

the optimization problem, the option value at time tj for the stock price Sj is defined

by ujSj + vj, where uj and vj are found from matrices [Ut] and [VJ], respectively, using
C~~IVIU III II*UI~U C3I I*II









5.3.3 Geometry of Discount Factors for Generalized CAPM Relations

Consider two deviation measures, D' and D". Both measures provide the same pricing

of assets i = 0,..., n: 7r = E[m',(i] and 7, = E[mD",,(]. Subtracting these equations

yields E[(mD, mD,)(i] = 0, i =, ..., n. The difference of discount factors for any two

deviation measures is orthogonal to the p .'off space X. It follows that discount factor mD

for any D can be represented as mD = m* + ED, where m* E X is the projection of all

discount factors mD on the p .,ioff space X, and ED is orthogonal to X. We call m* pricing

generator for the general portfolio theory.

The pricing generator m* coincides with the discount factor for the standard deviation

D = a, since
1 r' (u) Er"' Er, ro
,() 1 (lr ) -ErM Er r (5-23)
1 + ro o(r) ao (r )

together with i E X imply m, E X.

For a given p ,,off space X, discount factors m'D for all D form a subset of all discount

factors corresponding to X.

5.3.4 Strict Positivity of Discount Factors Corresponding to Deviation
Measures

We now examine strict positivity of discount factors corresponding to general

deviation measures.

The strict positivity condition ma(w) > 0 (a.s.) can be written as
S1) E ro 1 >0
((Qro M"() 1i) 1 >

QfM )> > U ) (5-24)


Note that the left-hand side of condition (5-24) contains a random variable, while the

right-hand side is a constant, and the inequality between them should be satisfied with

probability one. Scaling the deviation measure D by some A > 0 will change the value of

the left-hand side. We show next that it does not change meaning of the condition (5-24).

Lemma 3. Condition (5-24) is invariant with respect to re--. Al1.:, deviation measure D.









CAPM relations by pricing assets from the index-associated pool, or by pricing foreign

assets to this pool. These two ideas have different meaning as they refer to different v- --

risk preferences are manifested in the general portfolio theory.

The first calibration method is based on pricing assets from the index pool. The index

serve as a master fund in a generalized portfolio problem posed for assets from the pool.

Given a fixed selection of assets, different deviation measures would produce different

master funds. The existence of a particular master fund for these assets in the market can,

therefore, be used as a basis for estimation of a deviation measure. The "b' -1 deviation

measure is the one which yields the best match between the expected returns of assets

from the pool and the index return through the generalized CAPM relations.

The second calibration method is based on pricing assets lying outside of the index

pool. As we discussed earlier, when pricing a new asset whose p i-off does not belong

to the initially considered 1p .ioff space, the price investors would p lv depends on their

risk preferences, defined by the deviation measure. The second method, therefore, uses

prices of ,, .--" assets with respect to the index pool as the basis for estimation of risk

preferences. It should be noted that in the setup of the general portfolio theory the

selection of assets is fixed, and the master fund depends on the deviation measure. In

the present method we assume that the master fund is fixed and change the deviation

measure to obtain the best match between the master fund return and expected returns

of new assets. By doing so, we imply that the choice of the index-associated pool of assets

depends on the deviation measure.

We justify the assumption of a fixed master fund by the observation that master

funds, expected returns of assets, and their generalized betas can be determined from the

market data quite easily, while the selection of assets corresponding to an index can be

determined much more approximately. An index usually represents behavior of a part

of the market consisting of much more instruments that the index is comprised of. With

much certainty, though, we could assume that assets constituting the index belong to the









5.3.2 Derivation of Discount Factor for Generalized CAPM Relations

We begin by rewriting CAMP-like relations as follows.


cov(-rn, QM)
Er ro= c ( ) [Er r

E( 1 cov(-(, M) 2 ro
rEr roD D
E (ro + l)7r = DM 0 (E(EQM E[( QM]),

7i t / Ei ErE ro E[(QMiP
S+ ro ^ D(rf) [M



i = 0,1, ..., n.


Letting



we arrive at


rn(P) (QM ) )ErM + 1

the pricing formula in the form (5-17)


i = E[m' (i], i 0,1,...,n. (5-22)

The discount factor corresponding to the deviation measure D is given by (5-21).

Pricing formulas (5-22) corresponding to different deviation measures D will yield the

same prices for assets ri, i = 0, ..., n, and their combinations (defined by portfolio

formation assumption Al), but will produce different prices of new assets, whose p lioffs

cannot be replicated by p ,lioffs of existing n + 1 assets. Each deviation measure D has the

corresponding discount factor mW, which is used in (5-22) to determine a unique price of

a new asset. An investor has risk related to imperfect replication of the lp i-off of a new

asset, and specifies his risk preferences by choosing a deviation measure in pricing formula

(5-22).


ErrM ro EQ,


+1) 1 ,


(5-20)


(5-21)









Omega function has a simple and intuitive interpretation. For a fixed benchmark return

L, the number Qr(rh) is a ratio of the expected upside and the expected downside of an

asset with respect to the benchmark. It also contains the investor's risk preferences by

specifying the benchmark return. Third, given a benchmark rh, comparison of two assets

with returns rl and r2 is done by comparing their Omega values Q,,(rh) and Q,,(rh). The

asset with greater Omega is preferred to the asset with lower Omega.

The choice of the Omega-optimal portfolio with respect to a fixed benchmark with

linear constraints on portfolio weights leads to a non-linear optimization problem. Several

approaches to solving this problem has been proposed, among which are the global

optimization approach in Avouyi-Govi et al. (2004) and parametric approach employing

the family of Johnson distributions in Passow (2005). Mausser et al. (2006) proposes

reduction of the Omega maximization problem to linear problem using change of variables.

The -~i-.- --1. reduction is possible if the Omega function is greater than 1 at optimality,

several non-linear methods are s, i.-.- -1-. 1 otherwise.

This paper investigates reduction of the Omega-based portfolio optimization problem

with fixed benchmark to linear programming. We consider a more general problem than

Mausser et al. (2006) by allowing short positions in portfolio instruments and considering

constraints of the type h(x) < 0 with the positively homogeneous function h(.), instead of

linear constraints in Mausser et al. (2006). We prove that the Omega-maximizing problem

can be reduced to two different problems. The first problem has the expected gain as

an objective, and has a constraint on the low partial moment. Second problem has the

low partial moment as an objective and a constraint on the expected gain. If the Omega

function is greater than 1 at optimality, the Omega maximization problem can be reduced

linear programming problem. If the Omega function is lower than 1 at optimality, the

proposed reduction methods lead to the problem either of maximizing a convex function,

or with linear objective and a non-convex constraint.









The second way is to modify the discounting coefficient:


7 = E[(], rra(asset) -1. (5-5)
1 + rra(asset)

where rra(asset) is the risk-adjusted rate of return.

Pricing forms of the classical CAPM (see, for example, Luenberger (1998)) are as

follows.

Certainty equivalent form of CAPM:

1 (E[ cov(,TrM)(ErM -ro))
t = E [[(] COV, r(E ro.- (5-6)
1+ro o /

RB-1:- dliusted form of CAPM:

S= E []. (5-7)
1 + ro + 3(ErM ro)

Here asset beta 3 = co ( rM) rM is the rate of return of the master fund, and r is the rate

or return of the asset (r =(( r)/Tr).

Relevant to further discussion, there is a measure of asset quality known as the

Shapre Ratio
E[r] ro
S 7 (r)

It is a risk-return characteristic, measuring the increase in the access return of an asset if

the asset volatility in increased by 1. The higher the Sharpe Ratio, the better the asset.

Classical CAPM implies that master fund has the highest Shapre Ratio in the economy.

5.2.2 Pricing Forms of Generalized CAPM Relations

We now derive pricing forms of the generalized CAPM relations. Substituting

ri = /Ti 1 into (5-2), we get














C-- -- r-rr-r-r- -


I I I
0.100 0.150 0.200
strike (relative, shifted to stait from zero)
I-- Actual Vol -A- Calculated Vol


0.250


0.300


Figure 3-3.









nr nnl


3 .UU


S20.00

. 15.00
o
10.00

C 5.00


0 00


Implied volatility vs. strike: Call options in Black-Scholes setting priced using
200 sample paths. Based on prices in columns Calc. Vol(..) and B-S. Vol(..) of
Table 3-1.
Calculated Vol(.) = implied volatility of calculated options prices (200
sample-paths), Actual Vol( .) = flat volatility implied by Black-Scholes
formula, strike price is shifted left by the value of the lowest strike.


IP- 's- a


~1


0.100 0.150 0.200
strike i l-lir.l'.., sifted to tarlt from zero)
I--ActualVol -- Calculated Vol


Figure 3-4.


Implied volatility vs. strike: Put options in Black-Scholes setting priced using
200 sample paths. Based on prices in columns Calc. Vol(.. ) and B-S. Vol(.. ) of
Table 3-1.
Calculated Vol(.) = implied volatility of calculated options prices (200
sample-paths), Actual Vol( .) = flat volatility implied by Black-Scholes
formula, strike price is shifted left by the value of the lowest strike.


25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00


0.00 *-
0.000


0:050


0.000


0.050


0.250


0.300






















0.05


0.10


strike (relative, shifted to start from zero)
-I--Actual Vol --- Calculated Vol


Figure 3-1.


35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
nn-
000
0.00


Figure 3-2.


Implied volatility vs. strike: Call options on S&P 500 index priced using 100
sample paths. Based on prices in columns Calc. Vol(..) and Act. Vol(..) of
Table 3-3.
Calculated Vol(.) = implied volatility of calculated options prices (100
sample-paths), Actual Vol( .) = implied volatility of market options prices,
strike price is shifted left by the value of the lowest strike.


0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45


strike (relative, shifted to start from zero)
I---Actual Vol-A- Calculated Vol


Implied volatility vs. strike: Put options on S&P 500 index priced using 100
sample paths. Based on prices in columns Calc. Vol(..) and Act. Vol(..) of
Table 3-3.
Calculated Vol(.) = implied volatility of calculated options prices (100
sample-paths), Actual Vol( .) = implied volatility of market options prices,
strike price is shifted left by the value of the lowest strike.


20.00

S15.00

= 10.00

S 5.00
E


0.00 4-
0.00


0.15


0.20


--
b--=~Fii~~









1. Vertical monotonicity (Put options).

U(S, t, X) is an increasing function of S.

D This property immediately follows from convexity of the put option price with

respect to the stock price (property 6(b) for put options). U

2. Stock position bounds (Put options).



-1< U(S,T,X) < 0

D Taking derivative of the put-call parity C(S, T, X) P(S, T, X) + X e-T = S with

respect to the stock price S yields C'(S, T,X) P,(S,T,X) 1. This equality together

with 0 < C'(S, T, X) < 1 implies -1 < P'(S, T, X) < 0, which concludes the proof. U

3) Horizontal monotonicity (Put options).

U(S, t, X) is an increasing function of t when S > X,

U(S, t, X) is a decreasing function of t when S < X.

D Taking the derivatives with respect to S and T of the put-call parity yields

C',tS,T, X) P,(S,T,X). Therefore, the horizontal monotonic properties of U(S,T,X)

for put options are the same as the ones for call options. U

4) Convexity (Put options).

U(S, t, X) is a concave function of S when S > X,

U(S, t, X) is a convex function of S when S < X.

D Put-call parity implies that C"s(S, T, X) = P s(S, T, X). Therefore, the convexity

of put options is the same as the convexity of call options. U

3.5 Case Study

This section present the results of two numerical tests of the algorithm. First, we

price European options on the stock following the geometric Brownian motion and

compare the results with prices obtained with the Black-Scholes formula. Second, we price

European options on S&P 500 index (ticker SPX) and compare the results with actual

market prices.









Table 2-1. Performance of tracking models: stock vs. stock+index, full history regression
S Sbest L MAD, SD, GMAD, GSD,
STOCK
500 500 2 34.0 41.1 3.5 3.2
500 500 1 34.1 41.4 3.4 2.5
500 500 3 34.2 41.3 3.0 2.8
800 800 2 34.3 42.1 2.7 0.9
800 800 1 34.4 42.5 2.6 -0.1
800 800 3 34.4 42.2 2.4 0.5
STOCK+INDEX
500 500 1 34.1 41.0 3.2 3.5
500 500 2 34.2 41.0 3.1 3.5
800 800 1 34.2 41.2 3.1 3.1
800 800 2 34.2 40.8 3.1 3.9
800 800 3 34.3 40.7 2.7 4.0
500 500 3 34.4 41.2 2.4 3.0


Table 2-2. Performance of tracking models: stock vs. stock+index, best sample regression
S Sbest L MAD, SD, GMAD, GSD,
STOCK
500 450 2 34.0 40.8 3.7 4.0
500 200 1 34.0 39.4 3.6 7.1
500 450 1 34.0 41.0 3.6 3.3
500 400 2 34.0 40.5 3.6 4.6
500 400 1 34.0 41.0 3.5 3.3
800 500 2 34.2 41.0 3.1 3.4
500 450 3 34.2 41.1 3.0 3.1
800 700 2 34.3 42.1 2.9 0.9
STOCK+INDEX
500 450 1 34.1 40.6 3.3 4.4
500 450 2 34.1 40.1 3.2 5.4
800 750 1 34.2 40.8 3.2 3.8
800 750 2 34.2 40.8 3.2 4.0
800 700 1 34.2 40.9 3.1 3.7
800 700 2 34.2 40.5 3.1 4.6
500 400 1 34.3 41.0 3.0 3.5
500 400 2 34.3 41.1 2.8 3.3









It is especially suitable for trading low liquid stocks, due to statistical errors in historical

data for such stocks that make them unsuitable for forecasting.

In this chapter we develop dynamic VWAP strategies. We consider liquid stocks

and small orders, that make negligible impact on prices and volumes of the market. The

forecast of volume distribution is the target; the strategy consists in trading the order

proportionally to projected market daily volume distribution. We split a trading di- into

small intervals and estimate the market volume consecutively for each interval using linear

regression techniques.

2.2 Background and Preliminary Remarks

Consider the case when only one stock is available for trading. If at time r a

transaction of trading v units of the stock at a price p we denote this transaction by

{r, v,p}. Let Q = {{rTk, Vk,Pk}, k = 1,.., K} be a set of all transactions in the market
during a div. Then the VWAP of the stock is


VWAP = kPkVk (2-1)
Ek Vk

If a trading d i- is split into N equal intervals {(tl,-t] n = 1,.., N}, tT (n/N)T ,

where T is the length of the di -, then the corresponding expression for the daily VWAP

is given by

VWAP = N (2-2)

where

V. Ilk (23)
k: TckE(tnl,tn]
is the volume traded during time period (t,-, t,],


P, J (Ck:kE(t, 1,..,t,] PkVk)/VT, if VT > 0
(24)
[ 0, if V= 0

can be thought of as an average market price during the nth interval.









(2001), Edirisinghe et al. (1993), Fedotov and Mikhailov (2001), King (2002), and Wu and

Sen (2000).

Analytical approaches to minimization of quadratic risk are used to calculate an

option price in an incomplete market, see Duffie and Richardson (1991), F6llmer and

Schied (2002), F6llmer and Schweizer (1989), Schweizer (1991, 1995, 2001).

Another group of methods, which are based on a significantly different principle,

incorporates known properties of the shape of the option price into the statistical analysis

of market data. Ait-Sahalia and Duarte (2003) incorporate monotonic and convex

properties of European option price with respect to the strike price into a polynomial

regression of option prices. In our algorithm we limit the set of feasible hedging strategies,

imposing constraints on the hedging portfolio value and the stock position. The properties

of the option price and the stock position and bounds on the option price has been studied

both theoretically and empirically by Merton (1973), Perrakis and Ryan (1984), Ritchken

(1985), Bertsimas and Popescu (1999), Gotoh and Konno (2002), and Levi (85). In

this paper, we model stock and bond positions on a two-dimensional grid and impose

constraints on the grid variables. These constraints follow under some general assumptions

from non-arbitrage considerations. Some of these constraints are taken from Merton

(1973).

Monte-Carlo methods for pricing options are pioneered by Boyle (1977). They

are widely used in options pricing: Joy et al. (1996), Broadie and Glasserman (2004),

Longstaff and Schwartz (2001), Carriere (1996), Tsitsiklis and Van Roy (2001). For a

survey of literature in this area see Boyle (1997) and Glasserman (2004). Regression-based

approaches in the framework of Monte-Carlo simulation were considered for pricing

American options by Carriere (1996), Longstaff and Schwartz (2001), Tsitsiklis and Van

Roy (1999, 2001). Broadie and Glasserman (2004) proposed stochastic mesh method which

combined modelling on a discrete mesh with Monte-Carlo simulation. Glasserman (2004),

showed that regression-based approaches are special cases of the stochastic mesh method.









4. Vertical option price monotonicity.

For two options with strike X and initial prices S1 and S2, S2 > SI, there holds


C(S1, T, X) < C(S, T, X) .
S2

O For any strike X1 < X, from non-arbitrage assumptions we have C(SI, T, X) <

C(S1, T, X1). Applying scaling property to the right-hand side gives
X S1
C(SIJT,X) < C(SI X T,X). By setting X2 2 < X, we get C(S, T,X) <

SC(S2, T, X).
5. Horizontal option price monotonicity.

Let C(t, S, T, X) denote the price of a European call option with initial time t, initial

price at time t equal to S, time to maturity T, and strike X. Under the assumptions 1, 2

and 3 for any t, u, t < u, the following inequality holds,


C(t, S,T,X) > C(u, S, T, X).

O Similar to C(t, S, T, X), define A(t, S, T, X) to be the value of American call option

with parameters t, S, T, and X meaning the same as in C(t, S, T, X). Time homogeneity

assumption 2 implies that two options with different initial times, but equal initial and

strike prices and times to maturity should have equal prices: A(t, S, T, X) = A(u, S, T +

u t, X). On the other hand, non-arbitrage considerations imply A(u, S, T + u t, X) >

A(u, S, T, X). Combining the two inequalities yields A(t, S, T, X) > A(u, S, T, X). Since

the value of an American call option is equal to the value of the European call option

under assumption 1, the above inequality also holds for European options: C(t, S, T, X) >

C(u, S, T, X). U

6. Convexity. Merton (1973).

a) C is a convex function of its exercise price: for any X1 > 0, X2 > 0 and A E [0, 1]


C(S,T, A X, + (1 A) X2) < A. C(S,T,X) + (1 A) C(S, T, X2).









any point of the form Ax, x e Dq_, is feasible to P,_<1 for significantly low A, moreover,

q(Ax) = Aq(x) 0 as A 0, therefore problem P,1<1 never attains its maximum.
Alternatively, the problem Pq>1 can be attempted. If Dq+ Kw / 0, then the

solution to Pq>1 after normalizing gives the solution to Po. If Dq+ Kw = 0, the problem

Pq>1 is infeasible, due to the constraint q(x) > 1.
4.3 Proofs Of Reduction Theorems For Omega Optimization Problem

We use the following notations.

Dq+ = Ix q(x) > 0}n K, Dq_ {x I q(x) < 0} K,

Dqo {x | q(x) = 0}, Dq = {x | q(x) = 1},

Dq> = {x I q(x) > 1}, Dq>_ {x q(x) > -1},

and

D+ = {x y(x) > 0}, D,,o = {x y(x) = 0},

D,1 {x I y() 1}, D<_1 {x | 7y() < 1},

D,>I = {x I r(x) > 1}.

Theorem 1

Suppose that the feasible region in problem Po is bounded. Then Po either has a finite

solution or is unbounded. If Dq+ K, / 0, then problem Po can be reduced to problem

P,7<1. If Dq+ n K. = 0, the problem Po can be reduced to problem P,>1.
Proof: Consider the case when Dq+ K 7 0. If K. D,=o / 0, both problems

Po and 'P,<1 are unbounded. Indeed, there exists x E K, such that q(x) > 0 and

rl(x) = 0, therefore, (x) = +oo and the problem Po is unbounded. On the other hand,
Ax E K D,<1 for any A > 0 and q(Ax) = Aq(x) +oo as A +oo, therefore, the

problem Po<0 is also unbounded.
If K. D,=o = 0, feasible sets in both problems Po and ,1<1 are bounded and

closed, and objective function are continuous, therefore both problems have finite









realization of this density at each point in time; direct estimation of the density is not

possible.

However, the formula (5-32) provides a way of estimating p(rM) for a specific date,

if the function m'(r) is known. This idea is utilized in the utility estimation algorithm

-, .-. -- I.1 in Bliss and Panigirtzoglou (2001). We develop a modification of this method to

calibrate the deviation measure, as follows.

Assume the parametrization D = D,. Also assume that the master fund is known

from the market and therefore is fixed, its rate of return is denoted by rM. For each date

t ...,T, we estimate the function m'(rM) using (5 21). Quantities D,(rM), Erv", and

QVM in the definition of ma(rM) are calculated based on a certain period of historical

returns the index. Also, we estimate functions qt(rM), t = 1, ..., T, using (5-35). Formula

(5-33) allows to estimate function qt(rM) for each parametrization of D The parameters

a can be calibrated by hypothesizing that qt(rM) (rM) for t = 1, ..., T (which holds

if D is the correct deviation measure in the market) and maximizing the p-value of an

appropriate statistic.

This hypothesis is further transformed as follows. Using the true risk-neutral

distributions qt(rM), the actual distributions pt(rM) are estimated using (5-33),


4t(rM)
<(rM) (1 + ro) (FM)'

t 1, ..., T. We then test the null hypothesis that risk-neutral distributions pf(rM),

t = 1,..., T, equal to the true risk-neutral distributions t(rM), t =1, ..., T.

For each time t = 1, ..., T, only one realization rM(t) of the master fund is available;

the value rM(t) is a single sample from the true density Pt(rM). Under the null hypothesis

p(rM) = pt(M), therefore random variables yt defined by

I rM(t) l
t f 0C tp r)dr,
-o00

for t = 1, ..., T, are i.i.d. Uniform[0, 1] random variables.









approximation rules (3-6). The price of the option is the initial value of the hedging

portfolio, calculated as uoSo + ,,

The following constraints (3-10)-(3-18) for call options or (3-19)-(3-27) for put

options impose restrictions on the shape of the option value function and on the position

in the stock. These restrictions reduce the feasible set of hedging strategies. Subsection 3.3

discusses the benefits of inclusion of these constraints in the optimization problem.

Below, we consider the constraints for European call options. The constraints for

put options are given in the next section, together with proofs of the constraints. Most

of the constraints are justified in a quite general setting. We assume non-arbitrage and

make 5 additional assumptions. Proofs of two constraints on the stock position (horizontal

monotinicity and convexity) in the general setting will be addressed in subsequent papers.

In this paper we validate these inequalities in the Black-Scholes case.

The notation CO stands for the option value in the node (j, k) of the grid,


Ckf UjS1] + V1k

The strike price of the option is denoted by X, time to expiration by T, one period

risk-free rate by r.

Constraints on Call Option Value

Immediate exercise constraints. The value of an option is no less than the value of

its immediate exercise2 at the discounted strike price,

C > t Xe -T(T- (3-10)



2 European options do not have the feature of immediate exercise. However, the right
part of constraint (3-10) coincides with the immediate exercise value of an American
option having the current stock price S and the strike price Xei-(T-).









where 7 and ( are the price and the p ,,off of an asset. Letting


qD(o) = (1 + ro)mn'()p(w), (5-29)

we get
t= j ()D(w)dw. (5-30)
1 + ro J
As we discussed above, if the discount factor mr(w) is strictly positive, the function q' (w)

could be called the i -:-neutral" density function.

The future event w consists of future returns of all assets in the market and can be

represented as a = (r r, ..., r', f), where f represents rates of returns of the rest of assets

in the market.3

Now consider integrating relationship (5-29) with respect to r ',..., r, r.

qD ( /,..., r, r)dr...drdr (1+ro) jM (r, r,... r, r)p(r, r,..., r, r)dr...drdr.
Ja Jo
(5-31)

Let
(~) q( ,ri,.. ,r)d...drIddrr.

If ma was strictly positive, qD( 7) would be a risk-neutral marginal distribution of the

master fund. To simplify the right-hand side of (5-31), note that the discount factor m is

a linear transformation of the risk identifier Q' (both anD and Q' are random variables

and are function of w). Due to the representation


Qc E QD = argminE[rDQ],
QEQ



3 The master fund is not an asset but a portfolio of assets with rates of return ri,..., r..
The future state w is initially represented as a = (r,..., r,, r, ..., r ,, ). Assuming that
the asset r, is represented in the master fund with non-zero coefficient, we can represent w
as Lc (r, r,.., r,, ..., r, r ). After including r2,..., r, to f, we get the representation
= Iwk













30
> 25
C 20
0 15
0 10
S"- I I
LL 5

C'N C4N CO. COD Ct CO CO II CN C CN t CO. CD. CN CO. CDO (D
C CD CD CD CD CD CD CD 0
I I I I I I I I

Dollars

Figure 3-5. Black-Scholes call option: distribution of the total external financing on
sample paths.
Initial price=- '.," strike= -~. time to expiration 70, risk-free rate 10' ,
volatility 21 I'
Stock price is modelled with 200 Monte-Carlo sample paths.







3000
S2500
2000
3 1500
a 1000
u. 500




Dollars

Figure 3-6. Black-Scholes call option: distribution of discounted inflows/outflows at
re-balancing points.
Initial price=-'-., strike= -~. time to expiration 70, risk-free rate 10'.
volatility 21 I'
Stock price is modelled with 200 Monte-Carlo sample paths.









In the second group, we added volumes and returns of INDEX SPY to the set of

parameters taken from intervals. From each interval P = 4 parameters were used:


In V, In P ls, In VSPY and In close (2-39)
P psPYY
open open

The idea of using index information comes from the fact that evolutions of index and

stock are correlated and that the ratios of returns and prices of stock and index may also

contain useful information.

Tables 2-1, 2-2 show the results for the mean-absolute deviation used as an objective

and different values of L, S and Sbest. These tables show that including INDEX data does

not improve the accuracy of prediction. Also, as one can notice, there is a balance between

the number of terms term = L P in the linear combination (2-21) and the number of

scenarios (Sbest) used in the regression model. As Nterm increases, the model becomes

more flexible and more scenarios are needed to achieve the same level of accuracy. For

example, the best two models that use stock data (P = 2), have values of Sbest and Nterm

equal 450 and 4, 200 and 2, respectively. Also, when the index data is used, the number

of parameters P doubles, and the number of scenarios in the best models increases to

700 800 for the same regression length L.

In the case of CVaR-objective and mixed objective (Tables 2-3, 2-4), different values

of L, S and Sbest yielded a similar order of superiority as in the case of the mean-absolute

deviation.

Two more facts can be seen from the results. First, that the most successful models

use information only from the last one or two intervals, which means that the information

about the future volume is concentrated in the past few minutes. Second, the idea of

choosing the closest scenarios from the preceding history does work, especially when

a small portion of non-similar d ,v- (50 or 100 out of 500 or 800 potential scenarios) is

excluded. This agrees with the observation that most of the d ,v- are "reg- 11i enough to

be used for the estimation of the future.









with positively homogeneous functions hk(-) in problem Po is quite general. For example,

any set of linear inequalities on portfolio weights

N
Ax < b, Xi = 1
i= 1

can be written in the form (4-3) by taking

N
h(x) b Xi Ax
i=1


In this subsection, we discuss application of Theorems 1 and 2 to problems with linear

constraints. In the case when Dq+ n Kw / 0 (alternatively, ((x) > 1 at optimality), the

problem Po can be reduced to P,1<1 or Pq>1. In problem P
be reduced to linear programming. Recall that q7(x) = z [L(t, x)]+. Introduction of

additional variables zt, t = 1, ..., T, allows to enforce the constraint qr(x) < 1 by replacing it

with
T
> z < 1, zt >L(t,x), Zt >0, for t 1,...,T.
t=1
The problem PqI> can similarly be reduced to linear programming. The minimization

of the convex function qr(x) can be reduced to maximization of t1 Zt with additional

constraints Zt > L(t,x), zt > 0, t 1,...,T.

If (x) < 1 at optimality, the problem Po is reduced to Pi>1 or q_>-1. Both of these

problems cannot be reduced to linear programming due to the presence of the constraint

qr(x) > 1 in P,>1 or maximization of the convex objective qr(x) in Pgq-1.

4.5 Example: Resource Allocation Problem

As an example of applying Theorem 1, we solve the following problem arising in

hedge fund management. Consider N fund managers among which the resources should be

allocated. Let i, be the fraction of resources allocated to manager i, i = 1,..., N. Some

managers have similar strategies; there are M different strategies among all managers. Let

Jm be a set of managers pursuing strategy m, then j,,J- wj is the fraction of resources









In the case of the data set described above, we calculated the average volume

distribution over S admissible d v-. The estimation error of the ADV strategy was

calculated using (2-32). The relative gain in accuracy of the regression algorithm was

judged by the value of
MADADV MAD
GMAD MADADV 1011' (2 36)

Relative gain in standard deviation is

SDADV SD
GSD SDAD 1("1' (237)


2.5 Experiments and Results

In our experiments, we varied the type of the objective, coefficients in the objective,

the "1. i,l !i, of the regression L, the number of admissible historical d- v- S and the

number of (nearest) scenarios Sbest used in the regression.

With respect to the parameters (2-21) we took from each interval, the experiments

were divided into two groups.

In the first group, the experiments were based on using only prices and volumes of the

stock as useful information. Namely, from each interval we used the following information:


In V and In P-los (2-38)
Open

where V is market volume during the interval, Popen and Pciose are open and close prices of

the interval. R = Pcose/Popen is, therefore, the return during the interval. Logarithms were

used to take into account the possibility that the ratios of returns and volumes, aside from

returns and volumes themselves, contain some information about the future volume. A

linear combination of logarithms of parameters can be represented as a linear combination

of the parameters and their ratios.









Coleman, T., Kim, Y., Li, Y., Patron, M, (2004) Robustly hedging variable
annuities with guarantees under jump and volatility risks, Technical Report, Cornell
University.

Dembo, R., Rosen D. (1999) The Practice of Portfolio Replication, Annals of
Operations Research 85, 267-284.

Dempster, M., Hutton, J. (1999) Pricing American Stock Options by Linear
Programming, Math. Finance 9, 229-254.

Dempster, M,. Hutton, J., Richards, D. (1998) LP Valuation of Exotic American
Options Exploiting Structure, The Journal of Computational Finance 2(1), 61-84.

Dempster, M., Thompson, G. (2001) Dynamic Portfolio Replication Using Stochastic
Programming. In Dempster, M.A.H. (ed.): Risk i,.i.i.r, i,, ,n value at risk and
17. ;;. ;./ Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 100-128

Dennis P. (2001) Optimal Non-Arbitrage Bounds on S&P 500 Index Options and the
Volatility Smile, Journal of Futures Markets 21, 1151-1179.

Duffie, D. and H. Richardson (1991) Mean-Variance Hedging in Continuous Time,
The Annals of Applied P,.. l.al..:.; 1, 1-15.

Edirisinghe, C,. Naik, V., Uppal, R. (1993) Optimal replication of options with
transactions costs and trading restrictions, The Journal of Financial and Quantita-
tive Al.i.;-. 28 (\1 wr., 1993), 372-397.

Fedotov, S., Mikhailov, S. (2001) Option Pricing for Incomplete Markets via
Stochastic Optimization: Transaction Costs, Adaptive Control and Forecast,
International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance 4(1), 179-195.

Follmer, H., Schied, A. (2002) Stochastic Finance: An Introduction to Discrete
Time. Walter de Gruyter Inc.

Fllmer, H., Schweizer, M. (1989) Hedging by Sequential Regression: An Introduction
to the Mathematics of Option Ti I'.1- ASTIN Bulletin 18, 147-160.

Gilli, M., Kellezi, E., and Hysi, H. (2006) A Data-Driven Optimization Heuristic for
Downside Risk Minimization. The Journal of Risk 8(3), 1-18.

Glasserman, P. (2004) Monte-Carlo Method in Financial Engineering, Springer-
Verlag, New-York.

Gotoh, Y., Konno, H. (2002) Bounding Option Price by Semi-Definite Programming,
Mlr,.,, I., ,,: Science 48(5), 665-678.

Hansen, L. P. and Richard, S. F. (1987) The Role of Conditioning Information
in Deducing Testable Restrictions Implied by Dynamic Asset Pricing Models.
Econometrica 55, 587-614.











E( cov((/7~ Q1, Q)
(ro + 1) [E, ro]

Er ro
E( 7i#(ro + 1) cov(, Q,)

1 E, -ro D
F = r E + EcOV (Ci, rQf) (5-8)
1 + ro ((m

Pricing formula (5-8) the certainty equivalent pricing form of generalized CAPM

relations (5-2) (compare it to (5-4)), where the certainty equivalent

Er D ro
Q((,) E( + (r) cov(, QM) (5-9)

is the p ioff of a risk-free asset having the same price 7rj.

We could rearrange the formula (5-2) in a different way, namely

cov(-ri, Q) )
Er ro = D( [El, ro]


r ro r


EE( ErE ro
S( (ro + )) + r cov(- )
ii D(rM)

E(i
TTi = (5-10)

1 + ro + D(r-,) cov(- r, Q)

ErD ro
when D(rM) cov(-ri, Q) / 1 + r0.









In a complete market with no arbitrage opportunities, the unique discount factor lies

in the p .ioff space X and is strictly positive.

In an incomplete market with no arbitrage opportunities, all discount factors can be

generated as m = (* + F, where (* is the discount factor (unique) in the 1p ioff space

X, and c is a random variable, orthogonal to X, E[(] = 0 V( E X.

The discount factor (* is a projection of any discount factor m on X. For any asset,

S= [,.1(] = E[(proj(m|X) + E)(] E[proj(mX) ].

It should be mentioned that the existence of so-called I:-1l-neutral" measure is

justified by the existence of a strictly positive discount factor. Indeed, we can rewrite

(5-17) as follows.

S= r[ii] /n m()((u)dP(u) =- (()dQ(u), (5-18)
ct l+ o Jo

where dQ(u) = (1 + ro)m(u)dP(u). Since expectation of (1 + ro)m equals to one1

and m > 0, dQ(w) can be treated as a probability measure. It is usually called the

i,-I:-neutral" probability measure; the risk-neutral pricing form of (5-17) is

1
1 + ro

where EQ[.] denotes expectation with respect to the risk-neutral measure.

If one picks a discount factor m, which is not strictly positive, the transformation

(5-18) will lead to the pricing equation r = f ((u()dQ(wu) that correctly prices all assets

with 1p ,ioffs in X. However, dQ(w) will not be a probability measure.



1 Application of (5-17) to the risk-free rate gives 1 = E[m(1 + ro)].









4.2.2 General Problem

This paper deals with solving the following non-linear problem. We consider a fixed

hurdle rate rh and form a portfolio of N instruments subject to restrictions expressed by

K inequalities. The goal is to maximize the Omega function of the portfolio.


(Po)


q(w)
max (w) = 1 +
nl~w)


hk(w) > k= ,..., K,

E 1"' 1,


where functions hk(x) are positively homogeneous.

It is not necessary for variables in problem Po to

(x) is invariant to scaling its argument, since

q(Ax) Aq(x)
(Ax)= -+-- -+---
r (Ax) Arj(x)

for any feasible x and A > 0. Moreover, if constraints

x, they also hold for Ax, A > 0.

Consider the following alternative to Po.


(Ps) max Q(x) 1 +


hk(x) >


xi =1 R,
xi E R,


be weights. Note that the function


q(x)
(x) > O, ...,K hold for somex)


hk(x) > 0, k 1, ...,K hold for some


q(x)


'ITAX)


0, k 1,...,K,

> 0,

i = 1, ..., I.









CHAPTER 4
METHODS OF REDUCING MAXIMIZATION OF OMEGA FUNCTION TO LINEAR
PROGRAMMING

4.1 Introduction

The classical mean-variance portfolio theory is based on the assumption that the

returns are normally distributed. One of important characteristics of a portfolio is the

Sharpe ratio, the ratio of the excess return over the risk-free rate to the standard deviation

of a portfolio. Maximization of the Sharpe ratio in portfolio management allows to pick

a portfolio with the highest return or with the lowest risk. However, if the standard

deviation does not adequately represent risk, Sharpe-optimal portfolios can produce highly

non-optimal returns. Critique of the classical approach to the portfolio management is

based on the fact that the mean and the variance of a non-normal random variable does

not fully describe its distribution and, in particular, do not account for heavy tails of

distributions, which are of particular interest for investors. Introduction of higher-order

moments into portfolio analysis leads to more accurate solutions. One of the areas in

which the mean-variance framework fails is the hedge fund analysis. Properties of tails

of return distributions are the key characteristics of hedge funds. Portfolio measurement

should incorporate the information about higher-order moments of return distributions in

order to adequately represent hedge fund risk.

One of the alternatives to the mean-variance approach is the Omega function, recently

introduced in Shadwick and Keating (2002). Omega function 2r(rh) is the ratio of the

upper and the lower partial moments of an asset rate of return r against the benchmark

rate of return rh. The upper partial moment is the expected outperformance of an asset

over a benchmark; lower partial moment is the expected underperformance of an asset

with respect to the benchmark. The Omega function has several attractive features which

made it a popular tool in risk measurement. First, it takes the whole distribution into

account. A single value 2,(rPh) contains the impact of all moments of the distribution.

A collection of Qr(rh) for all possible rh fully describes the return distribution. Second,









* Option price sensitivity constraints.


j 0,...,N k 1,...,K 1.

This constraints bound sensitivity of an option price to changes in the stock price.

* Monotonicity constraints.

0. Vertical monotonicity. For any fixed time, the price of an option is an increasing

function of the stock price.

ck+1 > "
j C + > Cf, j = 0,...,N; k= 1,...,K 1. (3-12)

0. Horizontal monotonicity. The price of an option is a decreasing function of

time.

C +1 j 0, j ..., N- 1; k= 1,...,K. (3-13)

* Convexity constraints. The option value is a convex function of the stock price.

Cf+l < c+Ick + (1 !- 3+lf)Ck+2

where +1 is such that S+1 = f+1j + (1 +1)S2, (3 14)

j 0, ...,N; k 1,..., K 2.

Constraints on Stock Position for Call Options

Let us define k, such that Sk < X < SC+l.

* Stock position bounds. The stock position value lies between 0 and 1

S< U < 1, j =0,...,N, k 1,...,K. (3-15)

* Vertical monotonicity. The position in the stock is an increasing function of the

stock price,

Gk+l > j, j =0,...,N; k =1,...,K 1. (3-16)









financing on average is equal to zero over all paths. The construction of the squared error

implies that the hedging strategy delivers less money than the option i, off on some paths

and more money that the option 'p ,ioff on other paths. This ensures that the obtained

price satisfies the non-arbitrage condition.

The pricing problem is reduced to quadratic programming, which is quite efficient

from the computational standpoint. For the grid consisting of P rows (the stock price

axis) and N columns (the time axis), the number of variables in the problem (3-9) is 2PN

and the number of constraints is O(NK), regardless of the number of sample paths. Table

3-6 presents calculation times for different sizes of the grid with CPLEX 9.0 quadratic

programming solver on Pentium 4, 1.7GHz, 1GB RAM computer.

In order to compare our algorithm with existing pricing methods, we need to consider

options pricing from the practical perspective. Pricing of actually traded options includes

three steps.

Step 1: Choosing stock process and calibration. The market data is analyzed

and an appropriate stock process is selected to fit actually observed historical prices. The

stock process is calibrated with currently observed market parameters (such as implied

volatility) and historically observed parameters (such as historical volatility).

Step 2: Options pricing. The calibrated stock process is used to price options.

Analytical methods, Monte-Carlo simulation, and other methods are usually used for

pricing.

Step 3: Back-testing. The model performance is verified on historical data. The

hedging strategy, implied by the model, is implemented on historical paths.

Most commonly used approach for practical pricing of options is time continuous

methods with a specific underlying stock process (Black-Scholes model, stochastic

volatility model, jump-diffusion model, etc). We will refer to these methods as process-specific

methods. In order to judge the advantages of the proposed algorithm against the

process-specific methods, we should compare them step by step.














Table 3-4. Pricing options on S&P 500 index: 20 paths
Strike Cale. Actual Err( .) Calc.Vol. ( ) Act.Vol.( .) Vol.Err( .)
Call options
1.119 0.0005 0.0003 45.00 14.95 14.14 5.78
1.098 0.0010 0.0005 88.80 14.48 12.92 12.09
1.077 0.0020 0.0012 66.86 13.95 12.40 12.50
1.056 0.0047 0.0033 41.80 14.39 12.80 12.38
1.035 0.0092 0.0077 19.84 14.43 13.18 9.42
1.022 0.0132 0.0118 11.41 14.47 13.49 7.26
1.014 0.0160 0.0154 4.03 14.20 13.77 3.13
1.005 0.0195 0.0195 0.00 14.06 14.06 0.00
0.993 0.0264 0.0269 -1.66 14.28 14.60 -2.15
0.971 0.0393 0.0414 -5.01 13.67 15.40 -11.23
0.950 0.0548 0.0582 -5.76 12.01 16.13 -25.52
0.929 0.0737 0.0770 -4.35 8.39 17.35 -51.65
0.422 0.5790 0.5771 0.34 N/A N/A N/A
Put options
1.267 0.2633 0 2'i : -0.19 23.45 29.02 -19.16
1.098 0.0959 0.0960 -0.13 14.82 15.14 -2.11
1.077 0.0762 0.0759 0.40 14.67 14.18 3.45
1.035 0.0415 0.0405 2.49 14.92 14.11 5.72
1.022 0.0332 0.0320 3.69 15.20 14.35 5.93
1.014 0.0278 0.0270 2.74 15.03 14.51 3.54
1.005 0.0229 0.0229 0.01 14.90 14.90 0.01
0.993 0.0168 0.0174 -3.31 14.90 15.30 -2.63
0.971 0.0089 0.0112 -20.72 14.58 16.47 -11.48
0.950 0.0030 0.0072 -58.73 12.99 17.72 -26.73
0.929 0.0000 0.0046 -100.00 4.38 19.05 -77.00
0.908 0.0000 0.0031 -100.00 6.07 20.57 -70.50
0.887 0.0000 0.0022 -100.00 7.68 22.24 -65.48
0.866 0.0000 0.0015 -100.00 8.98 23.78 -62.21
Initial price=$1183.77, time to expiration 49 div~ risk-free rate 2.;'. Stock price is
modelled with 20 sample paths. Grid dimensions: P = 15, N = 49.
Strike option strike price (relative), Calc. calculated option price (relative),
Actual actual option price (relative), Err (Calc. Actual)/Actual, Calc.Vol. calculated
option price in volatility form, Act.Vol.( )actual option price in volatility terms,
Vol.Err( -)=(Calc.Vol. Act.Vol.)/Act.Vol.









Next, we show that the pricing generator m* is not strictly positive. Indeed, the

corresponding risk identifier is given by

Q ((w) =1 M


Condition M(w) > 0 takes the form

r' (u) Er' P(r,)
1- > Er ro



17(r'T < Er' ro
u2(rU
r' (a) < Er +
Er( ro

The last inequality is violated with positive probability, for instance, for normally

distributed random variables.

Consider an alternative representation of mD(w) in (5 21). Letting S = ,-, we
)we
get

1 1
(w ((Q()) 1)S + 1) ((Q (w)Sm + (1 S)) (5-26)
1 + ro 1 + ro

In Lemma 1 we showed that risk identifiers Q( a ) and Q( T) for deviation measures

D = AD (A > 0) and D, respectively, are related as
Q(0 ,) -(1- A)+AQ(,).



This allows to rewrite the expression for the discount factor as follows,


1 + ro

where QjM (w) is a risk identifier for the deviation measure DM = S -* D. Strict positivity

of a discount factor is then equivalent to strict positivity of the risk identifier QM (u().









Constraints on stock position for put options

In the following constraints, k is such that S < X < Sk+

Stock Position Bounds

0 < < 1, j 0,...,N; k 1,...,K. (3 24)

Vertical monotonicity

+i >U k j 0,...,N; k 1,..., K- 1. (3-25)

Horizontal monotonicity

UT < Uk, if k > uk > U if k < k (3-26)


Convexity constraints

(1 3+1)U+2 + 3+1k < Uk+1, if k > k,

(1 /-1)uk-2 +2 -1 > U-1, if k < ,
(3-27)
where /3 is such that S. 0.-1 + (1 t- 3/ 1

S(k + 1), (k 1).


3.4.2 Justification of Constraints on Option Values

This subsection proves inequalities on put and call option values under certain

assumptions. Properties of option values under various assumptions were thoroughly

studied in financial literature. In optimization problem (3-9) we used the following

constraints holding for options in quite a general case. We assume non-arbitrage and make

technical assumptions 1-5 (used by Merton (1973) for deriving properties of call and put

option values. Some of the considered properties of option values are proved by Merton

(1973). Other inequalities are proved by the authors.

The rest of the section is organized as follows. First, we formulate and prove

inequalities (3-10)-(3-14) for call options. Some of the considered properties of option









stated as follows


I
min /DMAD + YA DVa3
i= (2-18)

subject to constraints in (2-17),

where / E [0, 1], i 1,..., I, 3 + Ei / 1.

In our experiments, we used convex combinations of two CVaR-objectives, one with

the confidence level 50'.

min 3. D R + (1 ) D
(2-19)
subject to constraints in (2-17),

and of the mean-absolute error function and the CVaR-deviation:

min 3. DMAD + (1 /) Dvan
(2-20)
subject to constraints in (2-17) without the first one,

where the balance coefficient 3 E [0, 1]. For comparison, different types of deviations are

presented on Figure 2-2.

2.4 Experiments and Analysis

2.4.1 Model Design

Suppose that historical records for the last S di- are available, where each d4iv is

split into N equal intervals. The purpose of our study is to estimate relative volumes for

each interval of a d v. Suppose we want to forecast the fraction of the remaining volume

,,', that will be traded in the market during the kth interval. In order to forecast it',

we use the information about volumes and prices of the stock represented by variables

p k-1),s' ,, k-),s' 1, where p,, ..., p are variables taken from the ith interval and

L is the number of the preceding intervals.

We consider the following regression model
L
"", ~ + + P ) (2-1)
= 1









CHAPTER 3
PRICING EUROPEAN OPTIONS BY NUMERICAL REPLICATION



3.1 Introduction

Options pricing is a central topic in financial literature. A reader can find an excellent

overview of option pricing methods in Broadie and Detemple (2004). The algorithm

for pricing European options in discrete time presented in this paper has common

features with other existing approaches. We approximate an option value by a portfolio

consisting of the underlying stock and a risk-free bond. The stock price is modelled by

a set of sample-paths generated by a Monte-Carlo or historical bootstrap simulation.

We consider a non-self-financing portfolio dynamics and minimize the sum of squared

additions/subtractions of money to/from the hedging portfolio at every re-balancing

point, averaged over a set of sample paths. This error minimization problem is reduced

to quadratic programming. We also include constraints on the portfolio hedging strategy

to the quadratic optimization problem. The constraints dramatically improve numerical

efficiency of the algorithm.

Below, we refer to option pricing methods directly related to our algorithm. Although

this paper considers European options, some related papers consider American options.

Replication of the option price by a portfolio of simpler assets, usually of the

underlying stock and a risk-free bond, can incorporate various market frictions, such

as transaction costs and trading restrictions. For incomplete markets, replication-based

models are reduced to linear, quadratic, or stochastic programming problems, see, for

instance, Bouchaud and Potters (2000), Bertsimas et al. (2001), Dembo and Rosen (1999),

Coleman et al. (2004), Naik and Uppal (1994), Dennis (2001), Dempster and Thompson



This chapter is based on the paper Ryabchenko, V., Sarykalin, S., and Uryasev,
S. (2004) Pricing European Options by Numerical Replication: Quadratic Programming
with Constraints. Asia-P i..: I. Financial Markets, 11(3), 301-333.









where 3 e [0, 1]. Each of these problems can be reduced to linear programming ones.

By solving these problems, the optimal value of is obtained. The forecast of ,'- is

then made by the expression (2-21).

2.4.2 Nearest Sample

It is reasonable to choose for regression the "nearest" scenarios in the sense of

similarity of historical dv- to the current day. Since for each div we are interested in the

values of variables p(k-1), ",k-1),, I 1,..., L, we define the "dI-i ii'- between the

current dv and the scenario s in the following way:


D= P (p P -1)8,)2. (2-28)
i=l 1l=1

After calculating distances to all S scenarios, we choose Sbest closest scenarios corresponding

to lowest values of Di in (2-28). By doing so, we eliminate "outliers" with unusual,

with respect to the current d4i-, behavior of the market which favors the accuracy of

forecasting.

2.4.3 Data Set

The model was verified with the historical prices of IBM stock for the period April

1997 August 2002. Each d- is split into 78 5-minute intervals (daily trading hours are

9:30 AM 4:00 PM). For some experiments besides prices and volumes of the IBM stock

we also used prices and volumes of index SPY.

2.4.4 Evaluation of Model Performance

We evaluated the performance of the model by applying it to the historical data set

and forecasting the volume distribution of the IBM stock for the period of 100 (Feb. 2002

- Aug. 2002). In order to make the forecast for one d i-, a set of scenarios from the last

S admissible d4 -, was used. The d4iy is "a lihi'-- l!i if this d4i- and the previous d(i- are

full trading di -, starting and ending in usual hours, and there are no trading interruptions

during these di ,- We compared the forecasted distributions with the actual ones and

found the estimation error by averaging estimation errors for each interval over all output









3.4.3 Justification of Constraints on Stock Position

This subsection proves/validates inequalities (3-15)-(3-18) and (3-24)-(3-27) on

the stock position. Stock position bounds and vertical monotonicity are proven in the

general case (i.e. under assumptions 1-5 and the non-arbitrage assumption); horizontal

monotonicity and convexity are justified under the assumption that the stock process

follows the geometric Brownian motion.

The notation C(S, T, X) (P(S, T, X)) stands for the price of a call (put) option

with the initial price S, time to expiration T, and the strike price X. The corresponding

position in the stock (for both call and put options) is denoted by U(S, T, X).

First, we present the proofs of inequalities (3-15)-(3-18) for call options.

1. Vertical monotonicity (Call options).

U(S, t, X) is an increasing function of S.

O This property immediately follows from convexity of the call option price with

respect to the stock price, (property 6(b) for call options). U

2. Stock position bounds (Call options).


0< (S, T, X) < 1

D Since the option price C(S, t, X) is an increasing function of the stock price S, it follows

that U(S, t, X) = C(S, t,X) > 0.

Now we need to prove that U(S, t, X) < 1. We will assume that there exists such

S* that C'(S*) > a for some a > 1 and will show that this assumption contradicts the

ineqiality3 C(S,t,X) < S.



3 This inequality can be proven by considering a portfolio consisting of one stock and
one shorted call option on this stock. At expiration, the portfolio value is ST-max{0, ST-
X} > 0 for any ST and X > 0. Non-arbitrage assumption implies that S > C(S, t, X).









If from the beginning of the di- up to the current time the number of intervals is less than

L then missing intervals are picked from the previous di-. In order to approximate the kth

(k < L) interval of the d4i- parameters from intervals 1 through k 1 of the current d4i

and intervals N (L k) through N of the previous d4i are used in linear combination

(2-21).

Values of the corresponding parameters Pk-),s and fractions of the remaining volume

wf, s = 1,...,, S, i = 1, ..., L, j 1, ..., P, are collected from the preceding S d' of the
history. Thus, we have the set of scenarios


{ t, Pk- ),s (kk, -P ),s IL1) s 1,..., S}. (2-22)

Denote the linear combination
L
-1 k-1),s +-+ Pk-)s) (2-23)
l 1

as wf, the collection of 7 _k as '.

In our study we consider the following optimization problems:

Pl: MAD

min Ewk kw (2-24)

P2: CVaR
mint CVaR (wk- wk) + CVaR (wC w)
(2-25)
s.t. E[wk] E[,k]
P3: MAD+CVaR

mmn SEw k + (1 3) (CVaR(k k) + CVaR(k w k)) (2-26)

P4: Mixed CVaR

mint 3 (CVaRso(0k wk) + CVaRso%(WC- wk)) +

+(1 3) (CVaR (wk k) + CVaR (wk wk)) (2-27)
s.t. E[wk] =E[w],









k = 1,..., K on the grid are equally distanced in the logarithmic scale, i.e.

S, < S2 < ... < SK, ln(Sk+) n(Sk) = cost.

Thus, the node (j, k) of the grid corresponds to time tj and the stock price Sk. To every
node (j, k) we assigned two variables Uf and V, representing the composition of the

hedging portfolio at time tj with the stock price Sk. The pair of matrices

U1 U/ ... UN Vo1 V,1 ... V1
Su2 ...U2 /2 V2 /2
[Uf ] U02 1 [Vk] 2 1 (3-4)

U0K K ... K VK K ... vrK

are referred to as a hedging str il, 1; These matrices define portfolio management decisions
on the discrete set of the grid nodes. In order to set those decisions on any path, not

necessarily going through grid points, approximation rules are defined.

We model the stock price dynamics by a set of sample paths


(S, Sp',... 1,...,P} (3-5)

where So is the initial price. Let variables and j define the composition of the hedging
portfolio on path p at time tj, where p = 1,..., P, j = 0,..., N. These variables are
approximated by the grid variables Uf and Vk as follows. Suppose that {So, Sf, ..., S } is

a realization of the stock price, where SJ denotes the price of the stock at time tj on path

p, j = 0,..., N, p = 1,..., P. Let u and vp denote the amounts of the stock and the bond,
respectively, held in the hedging portfolio at time tj on path p. Variables up and vo are
linearly approximated by the grid variables Uf and V0 as follows


uP = apf (j')+ + (1 a~P) ( 'p), ~f PVk(p)+l + (1 a P)Vk(jp), (3 6)









of pricing options on the stock following the geometric Brownian motion the algorithm

finds hedging strategy which delivers requested option 1p .iments at expiration with high

precision on many considered sample paths. Therefore, we claim that the initial value of

the portfolio can be considered as an estimate of the market price.

We assume an incomplete market in this paper. We use the portfolio of two

instruments the underlying stock and a bond to approximate the option price and

consider many sample paths to model the stock price process. As a consequence, the

value of the hedging portfolio may not be equal to the option 1p ioff at expiration on

some sample paths. Also, the algorithm is distribution-free, which makes it applicable to

a wide range of underlying stock processes. Therefore, the algorithm can be used in the

framework of an incomplete market.

Usefulness of our algorithm should be viewed from the perspective of practical options

pricing. Commonly used methods of options pricing are time-continuous models assuming

specific type of the underlying stock process. If the process is known, these methods

provide accurate pricing. If the stock process cannot be clearly identified, the choice of

the stock process and calibration of the process to fit market data may entail significant

modelling error. Our algorithm is superior in this case. It is distribution-free and is based

on realistic assumptions, such as discrete trading and non-self-financing hedging strategy.

Another advantage of our algorithm is low back-testing errors. Time-continuous

models do not account for errors of implementation on historical paths. The objective in

our algorithm is to minimize the back-testing errors on historical paths. Therefore, the

algorithm has a very attractive back-testing performance. This feature is not shared by

any of time-continuous models.









CHAPTER 5
CALIBRATION OF GENERAL DEVIATION MEASURES FROM MARKET DATA

5.1 Introduction

General portfolio theory with general deviation measures, developed by Rockafellar

et al. (2005a, 2006), was shown to have similar results to the classical portfolio theory

Markowitz (1959). Replacement of the standard deviation in the classical portfolio

optimization problem by some general deviation measure leads to generalization of

concepts of masterfund, efficient froniter, and the CAPM formula. In particular, the

necessary and sufficient conditions of optimality in the portfolio problem with general

deviation measures were called CAPM-like relations in Rockafelar et al. (2006). In this

chapter, we refer to them as generalized CAPM relations; and refer to the underlying

theory as the generalized portfolio theory.

This paper makes a connection between the general portfolio theory and the classical

asset pricing theory by examination of generalized CAPM relations. In particular, we

derive discount factors, corresponding to the CAPM-like relations and consider pricing

forms of generalized CAPM relations. We propose a method of calibrating deviation

measures from market data and discuss v--iv of identifying risk preferences of investors in

the market within the framework of the general portfolio theory.

5.1.1 Definitions and Notations

Following Rockafellar et al. (2005b), we define random variables as elements of

2(Q) = 2(, M4, P), where Q is a space of future states w, M4 is a a-algebra on Q, and

P is a probability measure on (2, AM). The inner product between elements X and Y in

[2(Q) is

(X,Y) E[XY] = X(w)Y(w)dP(w).

In this paper we will use the notions of a deviation measure D, its associated risk envelope

Q, and a risk identifier Q(X) for a random variable X E 2(Q) with respect to D. The









3.3.3 Constraints

We use the value of the hedging portfolio to approximate the value of the option.

Therefore, the value of the portfolio is supposed to have the same properties as the value

of the option. We incorporated these properties into the model using constraints in the

optimization problem. The constraints (3-10)-(3-14) for call options and (3-19)-(3-23) for

put options follow under quite general assumptions from the non-arbitrage considerations.

The type of the underlying stock price process pl .1' no role in the approach: the set

of sample paths (3-5) specifies the behavior of the underlying stock. For this reason,

the approach is distribution-free and can be applied to pricing any European option

independently of the properties of the underlying stock price process. Also, as shown in

section 5 presenting numerical results, the inclusion of constraints to problem (3-9) makes

the algorithm quite robust to the size of input data.

The grid structure is convenient for imposing the constraints, since they can be stated

as linear inequalities on the grid variables Uf and Vk. An important property of the

algorithm is that the number of the variables in problem (3-9) is determined by the size of

the grid and is independent of the number of sample paths.

3.3.4 Transaction Costs

The explicit consideration of transaction costs is beyond the scope of this paper. We

postpone this issue to following papers. However, we implicitly account for transaction

costs by requiring the hedging strategy to be "smooth", i.e., by prohibiting significant

rebalancing of the portfolio during short periods of time or in response to small changes in

the stock price. For call options, we impose the set of constraints (3-16)-(3-18) requiring

monotonicity and concavity of the stock position with respect to the stock price and

monotonicity of the stock position with respect to time (constraints (3-25)-(3-27) for put

options are presented in the next section). The goal is to limit the variability of the stock

position with respect to time and stock price, which would lead to smaller transaction

costs of implementing a hedging strategy. The minimization of the average squared error is









LIST OF TABLES


Table page

2-1 Performance of tracking models: stock vs. stock+index, full history regression .28

2-2 Performance of tracking models: stock vs. stock+index, best sample regression 28

2-3 Performance of tracking models: mixed objective, changing size of history and
best sam ple .................. ................... .. 29

2-4 Performance of tracking models: CVaR deviation, changing size of history and
best sample . ............... ..... .... 29

2-5 Performance of tracking models: mixed objective ... . . 29

3-1 Prices of options on the stock following the geometric Brownian motion: calculated
versus Black-Scholes prices. .................. .. ...... 68

3-2 S&P 500 options data set. .................. .. ........ 69

3-3 Pricing options on S&P 500 index: 100 paths .................. 70

3-4 Pricing options on S&P 500 index: 20 paths ................ 71

3-5 Summary of cashflow distributions for obtained hedging strategies presented on
Figures 3.6, 3.6, 3.6, and 3.6. .................. ..... 72

3-6 Calculation times of the pricing algorithm. .................. .... 72

3-7 Numerical values of inflexion points of the stock position as a function of the
stock price for some options. .................. .. ...... 72

4-1 Optimal allocation .................. . . .. 88









values are not included in the constraints of the optimization problem (3-9), they are

used in proofs of some of constraints (3-10)-(3-14). In particular, weak and strong scaling

properties and two inequalities preceding proofs of option price sensitivity constraints and

convexity constraints are not included in the set of constraints.

Second, we consider inequalities (3-19)-(3-23) for put options. We provide proofs of

vertical and horizontal option price monotonicity; proofs of other inequalities are similar to

those for call options.

We use the following notations. C(St, T, X) and P(St, T, X) denote prices of call and

put options, respectively, with strike X, expiration T, when the stock price at time t is St.

When appropriate, we use shorter notations Ct and Pt to refer to these options.

Similar to Merton (1973), we make the following assumptions to derive inequalities

(3-10)-(3-14) and (3-19)-(3-23).

Assumption 1. Current and future interest rates are positive.

Assumption 2. No dividends are paid to a stock over the life of the option.

Assumption 3. Time homogeneity assumption.

Assumption 4. The distributions of the returns per dollar invested in a stock for any

period of time is independent of the level of the stock price.

Assumption 5. If the returns per dollar on stocks i and j are identically distributed,

then the following condition hold. If Si = Sj, T, = Tj, X, = Xj; then Claimi(Si, T, Xi)

Claimj(Sj, Tj, Xj), where Claimi and Claimj are options (either call or put) on

stocks i and j respectively.

Below are the proofs of inequalities (3-10)-(3-14).

1. "Immediate (::; i, constraints. Merton (1973)


C > [St X e-rT-t +.









An order may be sent to electronic systems where it is executed at the daily VWAP

price (VWAP crosses). These orders are matched electronically before the beginning of a

trading dv and executed during or after trading hours. VWAP crosses normally have low

transaction costs; however, the price of execution is not known in advance and there may

exist the possibility that the order will not be executed.

An investor with direct access to the market may trade his order directly. But since

VWAP evaluation motivates to distribute the order over the trading period and trade

by small portions, this alternative is not preferable due to intensity of trading and the

presence of transaction costs.

The most recent approach to VWAP trading is participating in VWAP automated

trading, where a trading period is broken up into small intervals and the order is

distributed as closely as possible to the market's daily volume distribution, that is

traded with the minimal market impact. This strategy provides a good approximation

to market's VWAP, although it generally fails to reach the benchmark. More intelligent

systems perform careful projections of the market volume distribution and expected price

movements and use this information in trading. A more detailed survey of VWAP trading

can be found in Madgavan (2002).

Although VWAP-benchmark has gained popularity, very few studies concerning

VWAP strategies are available. Several studies, Bertsimas and Lo (1998), Konishi and

Makimoto (2001) have been done about block trading where optimal splitting of the

order in order to optimize the expected execution cost is considered. In the setup of block

trading, only prices are uncertain, whereas the purpose of VWAP trading is to achieve a

close match of the market VWAP, which implies dealing with stochastic volumes as well.

Konishi (2002) develops a static VWAP trading strategy that minimizes the expected

execution error with respect to the market realization of VWAP. A static strategy is

determined for the whole trading period and does not change as new information arrives.









X() = 0 otherwise. Then,


Q(X) =argminE[XQ] argminE[ls Q] argminE[ls Q] C Q, (5-41)
QEQ QEQ QEQs

which contradicts with the condition Q > 0 for all Q E Q(X), as required by (5-40). This

concludes the proof.


Risk identifiers (5-39) implies that the deviation measure Q3(X) = CVaR3(-X +

EX) is coherent if 2 0-1 > 0, which is equivalent to having f > 1/2.

Now consider the mixed-CVaR measure


Dz31...,3(X) Z- CVaR(-X + EX)
i= 1
and examine its coherence. The risk identifier for this measure given by


.Q.. ...,. (X) = Q (X),
i= 1

where Q(X) are risk identifiers for measures CVaR,(-X + EX). Assume for further

analysis that si > 302 > ... > 3,n, then VaR p(-X) < VaR p(-X) < ... < VaRp, (-X).

The graph of members of Q .....,, (X) are step functions decreasing at the breakpoints

VaR 3(-X), so that having Q E Q~,..... (X) means that

EQ =1,

Q(w) = 2, when X(w) < VaRP(-X),


O(w) c [2 Etj 1(y/j), 2- Ei 1(7y/ly)], when X(w) VaR (-X), k > 2,

Q(uw) E [2, 2 7//3], when X(w) = VaR3,(-X).
(5-42)









To simplify notations, we will consider applying the above formula for a call option

on with price C, strike K, time to expiration T.4 The option is written on a master fund

with current price So and price S = S(w) at expiration of the option. The derivation

below concerns estimation of the function 4(S), and q(r{) = q(S/So).


p+oo +00
rTc= [S K]+q(S)dS (S- K)4(S)dS
(5-34)
= Sq(S)dS K q(S)dS.
K K
Differentiating (5-34) with respect to K, we get

r = -K(K) (S)dS + Kq(K) q(S)dS.
OK JK JK

Differentiating (5-34) twice with respect to K, we arrive at the formula for estimating

risk-neutral density q from cross section of option prices


e q 4(S)dS = q(K),
OK2 8K JK

or in the most common form

4(S) -= e (5-35)
OK2 K=S
Formula (5-35) allows to estimate the function q( ,) when the cross-section of prices

of options written on the master fund is available. It is worth mentioning that this method
estimates q(r\) at a given point in time; it is based on options prices at this time.

Now consider estimation of the marginal probability density p(r'). The most

common way to estimate this density is to use kernel density estimation based on certain

period of historical data. However, this method assumes that the density does not

change over time. When time dependence is taken into account, we are left with only one



4 For options with time to maturity T, the discount coefficient is e'T rather than 1 + ro.









Properties (Q1) and (Q3) of Q follow immediately from properties of Q. To prove
property (Q2) we need to show that for each non-constant X there exists Q E Q so
that E[XQ] < EX. Indeed, fix a non-constant X. According to property (Q2) of the
risk envelope Q stated for the random variable -X there exists Q' E Q such that
E[-XQ'] < E[-X]. The property (Q2) will hold with Q' 2 Q', since

E[XQ'] = E[X(2 Q')] = 2EX + E[-XQ'] < 2EX + E[-X] = EX.


To prove (5-38), we will use the formula OD(X)

aD(X) = -aD(-X).

1 Q(X) = 9D(X) = -D(-X) -

Q(X) 2- Q(-X).


1 Q(X) and the fact that



- + Q(-X)


From (5-38), the risk envelope for the deviation measure D(X) = CVaRg(-X + EX)


Q= Q 2-a-1

To find the risk identifier Q(X), consider the risk identifier Q(X) for CVaR deviation of

gains D(X) = CVaRa(X EX), given by


Q(wU) = Q-1,

Q e Q(X) < 0 Q(w ) a-1,

Q(L) 0,


when X(w) <

when X() =

when X(w) >


s The risk envelope for D(X) = CVaR,(X EX) is Q = Q 0 < Q < a- 1, EQ = 1}.


VaR (X)

VaR (X)

VaR, (X).









pool of assets represented by the index. Therefore, the first calibration method can be

based on matching the prices of assets the index consists of.

We also note that implementations of both methods are the same: selecting some

index as a master fund, we adjust the deviation measure until the generalized CAPM

relations provide most accurate pricing of a certain group of assets. We refer to this group

of assets as the target group.

Finally, we discuss the question, should the two calibration methods give the same

results. Generally speaking, for a fixed set of assets, the choice of risk preferences in terms

of a deviation measure determines both the master fund and pricing of new assets with

p ,ioffs outside of the considered p ,i-off space. When the generalized portfolio problem is

posed for the whole market, risk preferences can be determined only through matching

the master fund, since there are no i. .-" assets with respect to the whole market. The

master fund coincides with the market portfolio, i.e. weight of an asset in the master fund

equals the capitalization weight of this asset in the market.

If a certain index is assumed to represent the whole market, then calibration of the

deviation measure based on different target groups of assets (for example, on a group

of stocks and a group of derivatives on these stocks) should give the same result. If the

obtained risk preferences do not agree, this may indicate that either the general portfolio

theory with a single deviation measure is not applicable to the market or that the index

does not adequately represent the market.

If indices track performance of some parts of the market, the two methods are

not, generally -I'" i1:i:- expected to give the same results. Market prices of assets not

belonging to an index group may not be directly influenced by risk preferences of investors

holding the index in their portfolios. For example, it does not make sense to calibrate

risk preferences by taking one index as a master fund and assets from another index

as a target set of assets. However, it is reasonable to suppose that prices of derivatives

(for example, options) on the assets belonging to an index group are formed by risk










In SP In Sk(j,p)
where a = and k(j,p) is such that Sk(j,p) < S < Sk(j,p)+i.
S n Sk(j,p)+l In Sk(j,p)
According to (3-1), we define the excess/shortage of money in the hedging portfolio

on path p at time tj by


a uJ+,S1, + v, (ujSj + (1 + r)vJ).


The squared error p on path p equals

N
p (ae rj)2. (3 7)
j=1

We define the average squared error S on the set of paths (3-5) as an average of squared

errors Sp over all sample paths (3-5)

P N
S ^ i>ri, (3-8)
p=1 j=1

The matrices [Utf] and [Vjk] and the approximation rule (3-6) specify the composition

of the hedging portfolio as a function of time and the stock price. For any given stock

price path one can find the corresponding portfolio management decisions {(uj, vj)j =

0,..., N 1}, the value of the portfolio cj = Sjuj + vj at any time tj, j =0,..., N, and the

associated squared error.

The value of an option in question is assumed to be equal to the initial value of the

hedging portfolio. First columns of matrices [Ui] and [Vj], namely the variables Uk and

VOk, k 1,..., K, determine the initial value of the portfolio. If one of the initial grid

nodes, for example node (0, k), corresponds to the stock price So, then the price of the

option is given by UkSo + VOk. If the initial point (t = 0, S = So) of the stock process falls

between the initial grid nodes (0, k), k = 1,..., K, then approximation formula (3-6) with

j = 0 and So = So is used to find the initial composition (uo, ,,) of the portfolio. Then,

the price of the option is found as uoSo + vo.




































To my parents.









convex, and some other properties of option prices following from the definition of an

option, a non-arbitrage assumption, and some other general assumptions about the

market. We do not make assumptions about the stock process which makes the algorithm

distribution-free. Monotonicity and convexity constraints on the stock position are

imposed. Such constraints reduce transaction costs, which are not accounted for directly in

the model. We aim to prohibit sharp changes in stock and bond positions in response to

small changes in the stock price or in time to maturity.

We performed two numerical tests of the algorithm. First, we priced options on the

stock following the geometric Brownian motion. Stock price is modelled by Monte-Carlo

sample-paths. Calculated option prices are compared with the known prices given by the

Black-Scholes formula. Second, we priced options on S&P 500 Index and compared the

results with actual market prices. Both numerical tests demonstrated reasonable accuracy

of the pricing algorithm with a relatively small number of sample-paths (considered cases

include 100 and 20 sample-paths). We calculated option prices both in dollars and in the

implied volatility format. The implied volatility matches reasonably well the constant

volatility for options in the Black-Scholes setting. The implied volatility for S&P 500 index

options (priced with 100 sample-paths) tracks the actual market volatility smile.

The advantage of using the squared error as an objective can be seen from the

practical perspective. Although we allow some external financing of the portfolio along the

path, the minimization of the squared error ensures that large shortages of money will not

occur at any point of time if the obtained hedging strategy is practically implemented.

Another advantage of using the squared error is that the algorithm produces a

hedging strategy such that the sum of money added to/taken from the hedging portfolio

on any path is close to zero. Also, the obtained hedging strategy requires zero average

external financing over all paths. This justifies considering the initial value of the hedging

portfolio as a price of an option. We use the notion of "a price of an option in the

practical setting which is the price a trader agrees to buy/sell the option. In the example









BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH

Sergey Sarykalin was born in 1982, in Voronezh, Russia. In 1999, he completed his

high school education in High School #15 in Voronezh. He received his bachelor's degree

in applied mathematics and physics from Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology in

Moscow, Russia, in 2003. In August 2003, he began his doctoral studies in the Industrial

and Systems Engineering Department at the University of Florida. He finished his Ph.D.

in industrial and systems engineering in December 2007.









Therefore Q E Q(-X) is equivalent to having

Q(w) = a-, when -X(w) < -VaR,(-X)

<0 < Q(w) < a-1, when -X() -VaR,(-X)

Q(w) = 0, when -X(w) > -VaR,(-X),

or

Q(w) = a-, when X(w) > VaR,(-X)

0 < Q(L) < a-1, when X(u) = VaR,(-X)

Q(w) 0, when X(w) < VaR,(-X),

and the risk identifier Q(X) is given by


Q(wj) 2- 3-1 when X(w) > VaR3(-X)

Q Q(X) 2 j- < 2- 3- < Q( ) < 2, when X(w) VaR,(-X) (5-39)

Q(w) = 2, when X(w) < VaR,(-X).

Next, we examine coherence of CVaR and mixed-CVaR deviations of losses.

Coherence of a deviation measure D is equivalent to having Q > 0 for all Q E Q,

where Q is a risk envelope for the deviation measure D. We will now show that it suffices

to check the non-negativity of all risk identifiers Q(X) for all random variables X.

Lemma 5. Let D be a deviation measure, Q be an associated risk envelope, Q(X) be the

risk .1,. ,/.,l: rfor the r.v. X. Then D is coherent if and only if

Q > 0 for all Q e Q(X) for all X. (5-40)

Proof: If D is coherent, then (5-40) holds since Q(X) E Q for any X.

To prove the converse statement, we need to show that (5-40) implies Q > 0 for all

Q E Q. Suppose this is not true, namely there exists Q E Q, such that Q(w) < 0 on some
set S C Q. Since Q is convex, there exists a subset Qg c Q with the property Q(w) < 0

on S for all Q E Qg. Consider a random variable X such that X() = 1 if w E S, and









Finally, we look at the portfolio theory with general deviation measures from the

perspective of the classical asset pricing theory. We derive pricing form of generalized

CAPM relations and stochastic discount factors corresponding to deviation measures. We

-,.:.:, -i methods for calibrating deviation measures using market data and discuss the

possibility of restoring risk preferences from market data in the framework of the general

portfolio theory.









for out-of-the-money options. Errors of implied volatility follow similar patterns: errors

are of the order of 1 for all options except for deep out-of-the-money options. For deep

in-the-money options the volatility error also slightly increases.

3.5.3 Discussion of Results

Calculation results validate the algorithm. A very attractive feature of the algorithm

is that it can be successfully applied to pricing options when a small number of sample-paths

is available. (Table 3-4 shows that in-the-money S&P 500 index options can be priced

quite accurately with 20 sample-paths.) At the same time, the method is flexible enough

to take advantage of specific features of historical sample-paths. When applied to S&P

500 index options, the algorithm was able to match the volatility smile reasonably well

(Figures 3.6, 3.6). At the same time, the implied volatility of options calculated in the

Black-Scholes setting is reasonably flat (Figures 3.6, 3.6). Therefore, one can conclude that

the information causing the volatility smile is contained in the historical sample-paths.

This observation is in accordance with the prior known fact that the non-normality of

asset price distribution is one of causes of the volatility smile.

Figures 3.6, 3.6, 3.6, and 3.6 present distributions of total external financing

(E1, a e-rj) on sample paths and distributions of discounted money inflows/outflows

(ape-rj) at re-balancing points for Black-Scholes and SPX call options. We summarize

statistical properties of these distributions in Table (3-5).

Figures 3.6, 3.6, 3.6, and 3.6 also show that the obtained prices satisfy the non-arbitrage

condition. With respect to pricing a single option, the non-arbitrage condition is

understood in the following sense. If the initial value of the hedging portfolio is considered

as a price of the option, then at expiration the corresponding hedging strategy should

outperform the option 'p 'off on some sample paths, and underperform the option p .'ioff

on some other sample paths. Otherwise, the free money can be obtained by shorting the

option and buying the hedging portfolio or vise versa. The algorithm produces the price

of the option satisfying the non-arbitrage condition in this sense. The value of external









Now consider application of the formula 7 = F[,,,(] for pricing new assets2 in

complete and incomplete markets.

In a complete market, the p ., off of any new asset lies in X, therefore any new asset

will be uniquely priced by the law of one price (alternatively, since the discount factor is

unique, there exists only one price, Frew = E[,gew], for a new asset with p ,',off (g, e

In an incomplete market, two cases are possible. (1) The p 'ioff of a new asset belongs

to X; its price is uniquely determined by the law of one price (alternatively, the formula

7rnew = E[,,e,,w] will give the same price regardless of which discount factor m is used).

(2) The p ',-off of a new asset does not belong to X, i.e. the new asset cannot be replicated

by the existing ones. In this case, one cannot decide upon a single price of the asset. Let

(new be the p .,ioff of a new asset. Upper r,,,w and lower ,wr prices (forming the range of

non-arbitrage prices [e,,w,e]) of this asset can be defined as follows.


TTnew sup E[m (ew], ,new inf E[mnew,], (519)
mEb mEb

where = {-m I m(w) > 0 with probability 1}. Including only strictly positive discount

factors to the set + leads to arbitrage-free prices given by formula 7 = [,,,(].



2 Originally, we assumed that the market consists of n + 1 assets with rates of returns
ro, rl, ..., rT. Any other asset is considered to be new to the market. A new asset may be
replicable by the existing assets (in which case its p 'ioff will belong to X) or may not be
(then its p i, off will not belong to X).









where rM is the rate of return of the master fund, Q2 is the risk identifier for the master

fund rf corresponding to the deviation measure D.

5.1.3 Generalized CAPM relations and Pricing Equilibrium

Relationships (5-2) closely resemble the classical CAPM formula. However,

generalized CAPM relations cannot pl i, the same role in the general portfolio framework

as CAPM formula pl i in the classical theory, as discussed in Rockafellar et al. (2005b).

The group of investors using the deviation measure D is viewed only as a subgroup of

all the investors, generalized CAPM relations do not necessarily represent the market

equilibrium, as the classical CAPM formula does, and therefore cannot be readily used as

a tool for asset pricing. Another difficulty with using relations (5-2) for asset pricing is

that neither the master fund nor the asset beta for a fixed master fund can be uniquely

determined.

For the pricing using the generalized CAPM relations to make sense, we make the

following assumptions.

(Al) All investors in the considered economy use the same deviation measure D.

(A2) The master fund can be identified in the market (or some proxy for the master

fund exists). If the set of risk identifiers for the master fund is not a singleton, the choice

of a particular risk identifier from this set has negligible effect on asset prices obtained

though the generalized CAPM relations. Therefore, we can fix a particular risk identifier

for the purpose of asset pricing.

Assumption A2 makes sense because for most basic deviation measures members

of the risk identifier set QD(r') for a given master fund r' differ on a set of the form

{' = C}, where C is a constant. For deviation measures considered in Rockafellar et

al. (2006), the risk identifier set for standard deviation and semideviations is a singleton;

C = -VaRo(X) for CVaR-deviation with confidence level a; C = Ei for mean absolute

deviation and semideviations. Since asset prices in generalized CAPM (5-2) depend on the

risk identifier Q' though (-ri, Q'), assumption A2 -,.. that Prob{r = C} = 0.









REFERENCES


Ait-Sahalia, Y., Duarte, J. (2003) Non-parametric option pricing under shape
restrictions. Journal of Econometrics 116, 9-47

Avouyi-Govi, S., Morin, A., and Neto, D. (2004) Optimal Asset Allocation With
Omega Function. Technical report, Benque de France.

Berkowitz, J. (2001) Testing Density Forecasts with Applications to Risk
Management. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 19, 46574.

Bertsimas, D., and A. Lo (1998) Optimal Control of Execution Costs. Jourmal of
Financial Markets 1, 1-50.

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Incomplete Markets: An e-Arbitrage Approach, Operations Research 49, 372-397.

Bertsimas, D., Popescu, I. (1999) On the Relation Between Option and Stock Prices:
A Convex Optimization Approach, Operations Research 50(2), 358-374, 2002.

Black, F., Scholes, M. (1973) The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities,
Journal of Policital Ecorni. i, 81(3), 637-654.

Bliss, R. R. and Panigirtzoglou, N. (2001) Recovering Risk Aversion From Options.
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Working Paper No. 2001-15. Available at SSRN:
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Pricing: From Statistical Physics to Risk Management, Ciai,.:,ll',: U.Uu,.:,'; : Press.

Boyle, P. (1977) Options: A Monte Carlo Approach, Journal of Financial Economics
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Boyle, P., Broadie, M. and Glasserman, P. (1997) Monte Carlo Methods for Security
Pricing, Journal of Economic Diiiii:.. and Control 21(8/9), 1276-1321.

Broadie, M., Detemple, J. (2004) Option Pricing: Valuation Models and
Applications, Mfr..ir, i,, u.i Science 50(9), 1145-1177.

Broadie, M., Glasserman, P (2004) Stochastic Mesh Method for Pricing
High-Dimensional American Options, Journal of Computational Finance 7(4),
35-72.

Carriere, L. (1996) Valuation of the Early-Exercise Price for Options Using
Simulations and Nonparametric Regression, Insurance, Mathematics, Economics
19, 19-30.

Cochrane, J. (2001) Asset Pricing. Princeton University Press.









traded during 1th interval, where Vir'e is the number of shares left to trade at the end of

the (i- 1)t interval. At the end of the d-., E I V =d X.

2.3 General Description of Regression Model

In the algorithm is described in detail in the next section we use the linear regression

to make a forecast of the market volume distribution. For every interval i the fraction

,' is represented as a linear combination of several informative values obtained from the

preceding time intervals. In this section we discuss some general questions regarding the

types of deviation functions we use for the regression.

Consider the general regression setting where a random variable Y is approximated by

a linear combination

Y ~ ciX1 + ... + cX, + d (2-8)

of indicator variables Xi, ..., X,. In our study the variables are modelled by a set of

scenarios

{(Y"; X, ...,X) S =l,...,S} (2-9)

For a scenario s the approximation error is


e Y" ciX' -...- cX d. (2-10)


We consider our regression model as an optimization problem of minimizing the

.. i-.regated approximation error. Below we describe penalty functions we use as the

objective.

2.3.1 Mean-Absolute Error

In the first regression model, the minimized objective is the mean-absolute error of

the approximation (2-8)

DMAD(C) = EBec. (2-11)









3.2 Framework and Notations

3.2.1 Portfolio Dynamics and Squared Error

Consider a European option with time to maturity T and strike price X. We suppose

that trading occurs at discrete times tj, j = 1, ..., N, such that


0 = to < tl < ... < tN = T, tj+l tj = const, j = 0,1,..., N 1.


We denote the position in the stock at time tj by uj, the amount of money invested in the

bond by vj, the risk-free rate by r, and the stock price at time tj by Sj.

The price of the option at time tj is approximated by the price cj of a hedging

portfolio consisting of the underlying stock and a risk-free bond. The hedging portfolio is

rebalanced at times tj, j 1, ..., N- 1. Suppose that at the time tj_- the hedging portfolio

consists of uj-1 shares of the stock and _1 dollars invested in the bondI The value of

the portfolio right before the time tj is uj-~Sj + (1 + r)vj-1. At time tj the positions in

the stock and in the bond are changed to uj and vj, respectively, and the portfolio value

changes to ujSj + vj. We consider a non-self-financing portfolio dynamics by allowing the

difference

aj = ujSj + vj (uj-Sj + (1 + r)vj-1) (3-1)

to be non-zero. The value aj is the excess/shortfall of the money in the hedging portfolio

during the interval [tjl, tj]. In other words, aj is the amount of money added to (if

aj > 0) or subtracted from (if aj < 0) the portfolio during the interval [tj-1, tj]. Thus, the

inflow/outflow of money to/from the hedging portfolio is allowed.



1 Below, the number of shares of the stock and the amount of money invested in the
bond are referred to as positions in the stock and in the bond.









E Consider two portfolios. Portfolio A consists of A options with strike X1 and (1- A)

options with strike X2; portfolio B consists of one option with strike A X1 + (1 A) X2.

Convexity of function max{0, x} implies that the value of portfolio A at expiration in no

less than the value of portfolio B at expiration. Amax{0, ST X1} + (1 A) max{0, ST -

X2} > max{0, ST (A X1 + (1 A) X2)}. Hence, from non-arbitrage assumptions,

portfolio A costs no less than portfolio B: A C(S, T, X1) + (1 A) C(S, T, X2) >

C(S,T, A X, + (1 A) X2). -

b) Under the assumption 4, option price C(S, T, X) is a convex function of the stock

price: for any S1 > 0, S2 > 0 and A E [0, 1] there holds,


C(A S, + (1 A) S, T,X) < A C(S,, T,X) +(1 A) C(S2, T, X).

O Denote S3 = AS1 + (1 A)S2. ('!I...-. X1, X2 and a such that Xi = X/S1,

X2 = X/S2, a S1/S3 e [0, 1], and denote X3 = aX1 + (1 a)X2.

Consider an inequality C(1, T, X) < a C(1,T, X) + (1 a) C(1,T, X2) following

from convexity of option price with respect to the strike price (proved in a) ). Since

AS,
aS3 = AS1, ( -1 )S3 = S3 3 AS, = (1 A)S2, (3-28)


multiplying both sides of the previous inequality by S3 gives S3 C(1, T, X3) < A Si

C(1, T, Xi) + (1 A) S2 C(1, T, X2). Further, using the weak scaling property, we get

C(S3, T, S3 X3) < A C(SI, T, S Xi) + (1 A) C(S2, T,S2 X2). Using definitions of Xi

and X2 and expanding S3X3 as

a( 1 a
S3(aX + (1 a)X2) = S3X + -S2


(SA11 S3 -S1 1\ (A 1-
ASl S3 S- AS A 3- A
= S 3 SI S3 S 2 ) 3 S>3 S>3 )









In Table 2-5 we changed the form of the mixed objective, that is, differed 3 and a in

(2-17). We found that the best models have all weight put on the CVaR objective and for

a fixed balance 3 the models with small values of a are superior.

The most accurate model turned out to be the one with CVaR- objective having the

relative gain !' .

2.6 Conclusions

In this study we designed several VWAP trading strategies based on dynamic

forecasting of market volume distribution. We made estimations of market volume during

small time intervals as a linear combination of market prices and volumes and their ratios.

We found that prices and volumes do not contain much information about the future

volume. Linear regression techniques proved to be quite efficient and easily implementable

for forecasting the volumes, although the considered sets of indicator parameters do not

justify the use of regression instead of the simple average strategy.









Thus, the regression problem takes the form:


min,d CVaR [Y Y] + CVaR [F Y]
s.t. E [Y] E[Y] (2-14)

Y = ciXi + d.

Since
a 1
CVaR(1_) [-X] = CVaR, [X] -- E[X], (2-15)

optimization program (2-14) becomes:

minc,d aCVaRa [Y Y] + (1 a)CVaRi [Y Y]
s.t. E [Y] E[Y] (2-16)

Y = E ciXi + d.

The term E[Y Y] is not included into the objective function since E[Y Y] = 0 due to
the first constraint.
For the case of scenarios (2-9) the optimization problem (2-16) can be reduced to the
following linear programming problem.

min aX+ + (1 a)X-
s.t. Ef [Y' I ciX8 + d] 1YS

Xa Ca + c_S Zs 1 Za
XI-a > I-a + zS_ 1Z Eas (2-17)
> Y" (E c~x2 + d)
z a> vs (YE cXr + d) a1
Variables: c, d ER for i =1, ..., n; Xa, Xi-a E R; Z ,Z, z > 0 for s = 1,...,S.

2.3.3 Mixed Objective

Generally -I' '1. '- one can construct different penalizing functions using combinations
the mean-absolute error function and CVaR-objectives with different confidence levels a.
Denote the objective in (2-14) by DvjaR, then the problem with the mixed objective is









CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION

Fast development of financial industry makes high demands of risk management

techniques. Success of financial institutions operating in modern markets is largely affected

by the ability to deal with multiple sources of uncertainty, formalize risk preferences,

and develop appropriate optimization models. Recently, the synthesis of engineering

intuition and mathematics led to the development of advanced risk management tools.

The theory of risk and deviation measures has been created, with its applications to

regression, portfolio optimization, and asset pri i_:. which encouraged the use of novel risk

management methods in academia and industry and stimulated a lot or research in the

area of modelling and formalizing risk preferences. Our study makes a connection between

financial applications of the theory of general deviation measures and classical asset

pricing theory. We also develop novel approaches to solving and analyzing challenging

problems of financial engineering including options pricing, market forecasting, and

portfolio optimization.

C'! lpter 2 considers a broker who is supposed to trade a specified number of shares

over certain time interval (market order). Performance of the broker is evaluated by

Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP), which requires trading the order according

to the market volume distribution during the trading period. A common approach to

this task is to trade the order following the average historical volume distribution. We

introduce a dynamic trading algorithm based on forecasting market volume distribution

using techniques of generalized linear regression.

C'! lpter 3 presents an algorithm for pricing European Options in incomplete markets.

The developed algorithm (a) is free from assumptions on the stock process; (b) achieves

0.5' .- :;' pricing error for European in- and at-the-money options on S&P500 Index; (c)

closely matches the market volatility smile; (d) is able to price options using 20-50 sample

paths. We use replication idea to find option price, however we allow the hedging strategy









fund is in its 10' lowest values. The most valued assets, i.e. assets with lowest returns,

would have the lowest betas. Low betas correspond to relatively high asset returns (small

values of Er ri) compared to the master fund returns (values of ErM rD), when rM is

among 10',. its lowest values.

From the general portfolio theory point of view, the value of the asset is, therefore,

determined by the extent to which this asset provides protection against poor master fund

performance. Depending on the specific form of the deviation measure, the need for this

protection corresponds to different parts of the return distribution of the master fund.

Most valuable assets drastically differ in performance from the master fund in those cases

when protection is needed the most.

5.3 Stochastic Discount Factors in General Portfolio Theory

5.3.1 Basic Facts from Asset Pricing Theory.

The concept of a stochastic discount factor appears in the classical Asset Pricing

Theory (see Cochrane (2001)). Under certain assumptions (stated below), there exists

a random variable m, called the (stochastic) discount factor or the pricing kernel, which

relates asset p ,voffs (i to prices 7r as follows.


i = E[m (], i =0,...,n. (5-17)


The discount factor is of fundamental importance to asset pricing. Below, we present two

theorems due to Ross (1978), and Harrison and Kreps (1979) which emphasize connections

between the discount factor and assumptions of absence of arbitrage and linearity of

pricing. In the narration, we follow Cochrane (2001), ('! Ilpter 4.

Let X be the space of all p ',offs an investor can form using all available instruments.

We will consider two assumptions, the portfolio formation assumption (Al) and the

law of one price assumption (A2).

(Al) If (' E X, (" E X, then a(' + b(" E X for any a, b E R.

Let Price(() be the price of p ,,off (.









In order to state the first theorem, we introduce the following sets


Dq+ {x | q(x) > 0}n K,

D
D>1 = {25 {x I(2x) > 1},


and define problems

(p,< 1) max q(x)
K n D, and

( 7,>1) max q(x).
KnD,il
Theorem 1. Suppose that the feasible region in problem Po is bounded. Then Po either

has a finite solution or is unbounded. If Dq+ K,, / 0, then problem Po can be reduced to

problem P<,_1. If Dq+ K, = 0, the problem Po can be reduced to problem P,2i1.

For the second theorem, we introduce sets Dq o = {x I q(x) = 0}, Dq>i {-x I q(x) >

1}, and Dq-1 = {x I q(x) > -1}, and define problems


(Pq> ) mmin r(x)
K Dq>l

and

(Pq>-1) max (r (x).
K n Dq> 1
Theorem 2. Suppose that the feasible region in problem Po is bounded. If Dq+ K,, / 0

and D,=o [" K / 0, then problem Po is unbounded and the objective function in problem

Vq>1 is equal to zero at ol,':,,',:ahl; If Dq+ n Kw / 0 and D,=o Kw = 0 then problem

Po can be reduced to Pq>1. If Dq+ 0 K, = 0, and Dq=o n K, / 0, then the objective

function in Po is equal to zero at 'ol/'.:,,il.:;' and the problem Pq>-1 is unbounded. If

Dq,+ Kw = 0 and Dq=o n Kw = 0, the problem Po can be reduced to problem Pq>-1.
Proofs of both theorems are given in the next section.









Harrison, J. M. and Kreps, D. M. (1979) Martingales and Arbitrage in Multiperiod
Securities Markets. Journal of Economic Theory 20, 381-408.

Jackwerth, J. C. (2000) Recovering Risk Aversion From Option Prices and Realized
Returns. The Review of Financial Studies 13(2), 433-451

Joy, C., Boyle, P., and Tan, K.S.(1996) Quasi Monte Carlo Methods in Numerical
Finance, .i.ri,, ,, .ul. Science 42, 926-936.

King, A. (2002) Duality and Martingales: A Stochastic Programming Perspective on
Contingent Claims, Mathematical P,..j,.ir ,,,,.:,. 91, 5 ;.i.'

Konishi, H., and N. Makimoto (2001) Optimal Slice of a Block Trade. Jourmal of
Risk 3(4), 33-51.

Konishi, H. (2002) Optimal Slice of a VWAP Trade. Jourmal of Financial Markets
5, 197-221.

Levy, H. (1985) Upper and Lower Bounds of Put and Call Option Value: Stochastic
Dominance Approach, Journal of Finance 40, 1197-1217.

Longstaff, F., Schwartz, E. (2001) Valuing American Options by Simulation: A
Simple Least-Squares Approach, A Review of Financial Studies 14(1), 113-147.

Luenberger, D.G. (1998) Investment Science, Oxford University Press, Oxford, New
York.

Madgavan, A. (2002) VWAP Strategies, Technical Report, Available at
http://www.itginc.com/.

Markowitz, H.M. (1959) Portfolio Selection, Efficient Diversification of Investments,
Wiley, New York.

Merton, R. (1973) Theory of Rational Options Pricing, Bell Journal of Economics
4(1), 141-184.

Mausser, H., Saunders, D., and Seco, L. (2006) Optimizing Omega. Risk M.I,,r. .,
November 2006.

Naik, V., Uppal, R. (1994) Leverage constraints and the optimal hedging of stock
and bond options, Journal of Financial and Quantitative A,.ibl;-.: 29(2), 199223.

Passow, A. (2005) Omega Portfolio Construction With Johnson Distributions. Risk
MIrj.~ ..:,,: Limited 18(4), pp. 85-90.

Perrakis, S., Ryan, P. J. (1984) Option Pricing Bounds in Discrete Time, Journal of
Finance 39, 519-525.

Ritchken, P. H. (1985) On Option Pricing Bounds, Journal of Finance 40,
1219-1233.









OPTIMIZATION METHODS IN FINANCIAL ENGINEERING


By

SERGEY V. SARYKALIN



















A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL
OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT
OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF
DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY

UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA

2007




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IwanttothankmyadvisorProf.StanUryasevforhisguidancesupport,andenthusiasm.Ilearnedalotfromhisdeterminationandexperience.IwanttothankmycommitteemembersProf.JasonKarseski,Prof.FaridAitSahlia,andProf.R.TyrrellRockafellarfortheirconcernandinspiration.IwanttothankmycollaboratorsVladBugeraandValeriyRyabchekno,whowerealwaysgreatpleasuretoworkwith.Iwouldliketoexpressmydeepestappreciationtomyfamilyandfriendsfortheirconstantsupport. 4

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page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ................................. 4 LISTOFTABLES ..................................... 7 LISTOFFIGURES .................................... 8 ABSTRACT ........................................ 9 CHAPTER 1INTRODUCTION .................................. 11 2TRACKINGVOLUMEWEIGHTEDAVERAGEPRICE ............ 13 2.1Introduction ................................... 13 2.2BackgroundandPreliminaryRemarks .................... 15 2.3GeneralDescriptionofRegressionModel ................... 18 2.3.1Mean-AbsoluteError .......................... 18 2.3.2CVaR-objective ............................. 19 2.3.3MixedObjective ............................. 20 2.4ExperimentsandAnalysis ........................... 21 2.4.1ModelDesign .............................. 21 2.4.2NearestSample ............................. 23 2.4.3DataSet ................................. 23 2.4.4EvaluationofModelPerformance ................... 23 2.5ExperimentsandResults ............................ 25 2.6Conclusions ................................... 27 3PRICINGEUROPEANOPTIONSBYNUMERICALREPLICATION ..... 32 3.1Introduction ................................... 32 3.2FrameworkandNotations ........................... 37 3.2.1PortfolioDynamicsandSquaredError ................ 37 3.2.2HedgingStrategy ............................ 38 3.3AlgorithmforPricingOptions ......................... 41 3.3.1OptimizationProblem ......................... 41 3.3.2FinancialInterpretationoftheObjective ............... 44 3.3.3Constraints ............................... 45 3.3.4TransactionCosts ............................ 45 3.4JusticationOfConstraintsOnOptionValuesAndStockPositions .... 46 3.4.1ConstraintsforPutOptions ...................... 46 3.4.2JusticationofConstraintsonOptionValues ............. 47 3.4.3JusticationofConstraintsonStockPosition ............. 55 3.5CaseStudy ................................... 58 5

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.................................. 59 3.5.2PricingEuropeanoptionsonS&P500Index ............. 59 3.5.3DiscussionofResults .......................... 60 3.6ConclusionsandFutureResearch ....................... 63 4METHODSOFREDUCINGMAXIMIZATIONOFOMEGAFUNCTIONTOLINEARPROGRAMMING ............................. 73 4.1Introduction ................................... 73 4.2OmegaOptimization .............................. 75 4.2.1DenitionofOmegaFunction ..................... 75 4.2.2GeneralProblem ............................ 77 4.2.3TwoReductionTheorems ....................... 78 4.3ProofsOfReductionTheoremsForOmegaOptimizationProblem ..... 81 4.4ApplicationsofReductionTheoremstoProblemswithLinearConstraints 84 4.5Example:ResourceAllocationProblem .................... 85 4.6Conclusions ................................... 88 5CALIBRATIONOFGENERALDEVIATIONMEASURESFROMMARKETDATA ......................................... 89 5.1Introduction ................................... 89 5.1.1DenitionsandNotations ........................ 89 5.1.2GeneralPortfolioTheory ........................ 90 5.1.3GeneralizedCAPMrelationsandPricingEquilibrium ........ 91 5.2IntuitionBehindGeneralizedCAPMRelations ................ 92 5.2.1TwoWaystoAccountForRisk .................... 92 5.2.2PricingFormsofGeneralizedCAPMRelations ............ 93 5.3StochasticDiscountFactorsinGeneralPortfolioTheory .......... 98 5.3.1BasicFactsfromAssetPricingTheory. ................ 98 5.3.2DerivationofDiscountFactorforGeneralizedCAPMRelations ... 102 5.3.3GeometryofDiscountFactorsforGeneralizedCAPMRelations .. 103 5.3.4StrictPositivityofDiscountFactorsCorrespondingtoDeviationMeasures ................................. 103 5.4CalibrationofDeviationMeasuresUsingMarketData ........... 106 5.4.1IdenticationofRiskPreferencesofMarketParticipants ....... 106 5.4.2Notations ................................ 109 5.4.3ImplementationIofCalibrationMethods ............... 109 5.4.4ImplementationIIofCalibrationMethods .............. 110 5.4.5DiscussionofImplementationMethods ................ 115 5.5CoherenceofMixedCVaR-Deviation ..................... 116 5.6Conclusions ................................... 121 REFERENCES ....................................... 122 BIOGRAPHICALSKETCH ................................ 126 6

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Table page 2-1Performanceoftrackingmodels:stockvs.stock+index,fullhistoryregression 28 2-2Performanceoftrackingmodels:stockvs.stock+index,bestsampleregression 28 2-3Performanceoftrackingmodels:mixedobjective,changingsizeofhistoryandbestsample ...................................... 29 2-4Performanceoftrackingmodels:CVaRdeviation,changingsizeofhistoryandbestsample ...................................... 29 2-5Performanceoftrackingmodels:mixedobjective ................. 29 3-1PricesofoptionsonthestockfollowingthegeometricBrownianmotion:calculatedversusBlack-Scholesprices. ............................. 68 3-2S&P500ptionsdataset. ............................... 69 3-3PricingoptionsonS&P500index:100paths ................... 70 3-4PricingoptionsonS&P500index:20paths .................... 71 3-5SummaryofcashowdistributionsforobitainedhedgingstrategiespresentedonFigures 3.6 3.6 3.6 ,and 3.6 ............................ 72 3-6Calculationtimesofthepricingalgorithm. ..................... 72 3-7Numericalvaluesofinexionpointsofthestockpositionasafunctionofthestockpriceforsomeoptions. ............................. 72 4-1Optimalallocation .................................. 88 7

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Figure page 2-1Percentagesofremainingvolumevs.percentagesoftotalvolume ........ 30 2-2MAD,CVaR,andmixeddeviations ........................ 30 2-3Dailyvolumedistributions .............................. 31 3-1Impliedvolatilityvs.strike:CalloptionsonS&P500indexpricedusing100samplepaths ..................................... 64 3-2Impliedvolatilityvs.strike:PutoptionsonS&P500indexpricedusing100samplepaths ..................................... 64 3-3Impliedvolatilityvs.strike:CalloptionsinBlack-Scholessettingpricedusing200samplepaths ................................... 65 3-4Impliedvolatilityvs.strike:PutoptionsinBlack-Scholessettingpricedusing200samplepaths ................................... 65 3-5Black-Scholescalloption:distributionofthetotalexternalnancingonsamplepaths .......................................... 66 3-6Black-Scholescalloption:distributionofdiscountedinows/outowsatre-balancingpoints ......................................... 66 3-7SPXcalloption:distributionofthetotalexternalnancingonsamplepaths .. 67 3-8SPXcalloption:distributionofdiscountedinows/outowsatre-balancingpoints 67 8

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Ourstudydevelopednovelapproachestosolvingandanalyzingchallengingproblemsofnancialengineeringincludingoptionspricing,marketforecasting,andportfoliooptimization.Wealsomakeconnectionsoftheportfoliotheorywithgeneraldeviationmeasurestoclassicalportfolioandassetpricingtheories. WeconsideraproblemfacedbytraderswhoseperformanceisevaluatedusingtheVWAPbenchmark.Ecienttradingmarketordersincludepredictingfuturevolumedistributions.SeveralforecastingalgorithmsbasedonCVaR-regressionweredevelopedforthispurpose. Next,weconsiderassumption-freealgorithmforpricingEuropeanOptionsinincompletemarkets.Anon-self-nancingoptionreplicationstrategywasmodelledonadiscretegridinthespaceoftimeandthestockprice.Thealgorithmwaspopulatedbyhistoricalsamplepathsadjustedtocurrentvolatility.Hedgingerroroverthelifetimeoftheoptionwasminimizedsubjecttoconstraintsonthehedgingstrategy.Theoutputofthealgorithmconsistsoftheoptionpriceandthehedgingstrategydenedbythegridvariables. AnotherconsideredproblemwasoptimizationoftheOmegafunction.HedgefundsoftenusetheOmegafunctiontorankportfolios.WeshowthatmaximizingOmegafunctionofaportfoliounderpositivelyhomogeneousconstraintscanbereducedtolinearprogramming. 9

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Fastdevelopmentofnancialindustrymakeshighdemandsofriskmanagementtechniques.Successofnancialinstitutionsoperatinginmodernmarketsislargelyaectedbytheabilitytodealwithmultiplesourcesofuncertainty,formalizeriskpreferences,anddevelopappropriateoptimizationmodels.Recently,thesynthesisofengineeringintuitionandmathematicsledtothedevelopmentofadvancedriskmanagementtools.Thetheoryofriskanddeviationmeasureshasbeencreated,withitsapplicationstoregression,portfoliooptimization,andassetpricing;whichencouragedtheuseofnovelriskmanagementmethodsinacademiaandindustryandstimulatedalotorresearchintheareaofmodellingandformalizingriskpreferences.Ourstudymakesaconnectionbetweennancialapplicationsofthetheoryofgeneraldeviationmeasuresandclassicalassetpricingtheory.Wealsodevelopnovelapproachestosolvingandanalyzingchallengingproblemsofnancialengineeringincludingoptionspricing,marketforecasting,andportfoliooptimization. Chapter2considersabrokerwhoissupposedtotradeaspeciednumberofsharesovercertaintimeinterval(marketorder).PerformanceofthebrokerisevaluatedbyVolumeWeightedAveragePrice(VWAP),whichrequirestradingtheorderaccordingtothemarketvolumedistributionduringthetradingperiod.Acommonapproachtothistaskistotradetheorderfollowingtheaveragehistoricalvolumedistribution.Weintroduceadynamictradingalgorithmbasedonforecastingmarketvolumedistributionusingtechniquesofgeneralizedlinearregression. Chapter3presentsanalgorithmforpricingEuropeanOptionsinincompletemarkets.Thedevelopedalgorithm(a)isfreefromassumptionsonthestockprocess;(b)achieves0.5%-3%pricingerrorforEuropeanin-andat-the-moneyoptionsonS&P500Index;(c)closelymatchesthemarketvolatilitysmile;(d)isabletopriceoptionsusing20-50samplepaths.Weusereplicationideatondoptionprice,howeverweallowthehedgingstrategy 11

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Chapter4provestworeductiontheoremsfortheOmegafunctionmaximizationproblem.Omegafunctionisacommoncriterionforrankingportfolios.Itisequaltotheratioofexpectedoverperformanceofaportfoliowithrespecttoabenchmark(hurdlerate)toexpectedunderperformanceofaportfoliowithrespecttothesamebenchmark.TheOmegafunctionisanon-linearfunctionofaportfolioreturn;however,itispositivelyhomogeneouswithrespecttoinstrumentexposuresinaportfolio.ThispropertyallowstransformationoftheOmegamaximizationproblemwithpositivelyhomogeneousconstraintsintoalinearprogrammingprobleminthecasewhentheOmegafunctionisgreaterthanoneatoptimality. Chapter5looksattheportfoliotheorywithgeneraldeviationmeasuresfromtheperspectiveoftheclassicalassetpricingtheory.Inparticular,weanalyzethegeneralizedCAPMrelations,whichcomeoutasanecessaryandsucientconditionsforoptimalityinthegeneralportfoliotheory.WederivepricingformsofthegeneralizedCAPMrelationsandshowhowthestochasticdiscountfactoremergesinthegeneralizedportfoliotheory.Wedevelopmethodsofcalibratingdeviationmeasuresfrommarketdataanddiscussapplicabilityofthesemethodstoestimationofriskpreferencesofmarketparticipants. 12

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ThereareseveraltypesofbenchmarkssimilartoVWAP.VWAP,asitisdenedabove,isreasonableforevaluationofrelativelysmallordersofliquidstocks.VWAPexcludingowntransactionsisappropriatewhenthetotalvolumeoftransactionsconstitutesasignicantportionofthemarket'sdailyvolume.Forhighlyvolatilestocks,value-weightedaveragepriceisalsoused,wherepricesoftransactionsareweightedbydollarvaluesofthistransactions.VWAPbenchmarksarewidespreadmostlyoutsideUSA,forexample,inJapan. ThepurposeoftheVWAPtradingistoobtainthevolume-weightedpriceoftransactionsasclosetothemarketVWAPaspossible.AninvestormayactdierentlywhenseekingforVWAPexecutionofhisorder.HecanmakeacontractwithabrokerwhoguaranteessellingorbuyingordersatthedailyWVAP.SincethebrokerassumesalltheriskoffailingtoachievetheaveragepricebetterthanVWAPandisusuallyriskaverse,commissionsarequitelarge. ThischapterisbasedonjointworkwithVladimirBugeraandStanUryasev. 13

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Aninvestorwithdirectaccesstothemarketmaytradehisorderdirectly.ButsinceVWAPevaluationmotivatestodistributetheorderoverthetradingperiodandtradebysmallportions,thisalternativeisnotpreferableduetointensityoftradingandthepresenceoftransactioncosts. ThemostrecentapproachtoVWAPtradingisparticipatinginVWAPautomatedtrading,whereatradingperiodisbrokenupintosmallintervalsandtheorderisdistributedascloselyaspossibletothemarket'sdailyvolumedistribution,thatistradedwiththeminimalmarketimpact.Thisstrategyprovidesagoodapproximationtomarket'sVWAP,althoughitgenerallyfailstoreachthebenchmark.Moreintelligentsystemsperformcarefulprojectionsofthemarketvolumedistributionandexpectedpricemovementsandusethisinformationintrading.AmoredetailedsurveyofVWAPtradingcanbefoundinMadgavan(2002). AlthoughVWAP-benchmarkhasgainedpopularity,veryfewstudiesconcerningVWAPstrategiesareavailable.Severalstudies,BertsimasandLo(1998),KonishiandMakimoto(2001)havebeendoneaboutblocktradingwhereoptimalsplittingoftheorderinordertooptimizetheexpectedexecutioncostisconsidered.Inthesetupofblocktrading,onlypricesareuncertain,whereasthepurposeofVWAPtradingistoachieveaclosematchofthemarketVWAP,whichimpliesdealingwithstochasticvolumesaswell.Konishi(2002)developsastaticVWAPtradingstrategythatminimizestheexpectedexecutionerrorwithrespecttothemarketrealizationofVWAP.Astaticstrategyisdeterminedforthewholetradingperiodanddoesnotchangeasnewinformationarrives. 14

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InthischapterwedevelopdynamicVWAPstrategies.Weconsiderliquidstocksandsmallorders,thatmakenegligibleimpactonpricesandvolumesofthemarket.Theforecastofvolumedistributionisthetarget;thestrategyconsistsintradingtheorderproportionallytoprojectedmarketdailyvolumedistribution.Wesplitatradingdayintosmallintervalsandestimatethemarketvolumeconsecutivelyforeachintervalusinglinearregressiontechniques. IfatradingdayissplitintoNequalintervalsf(tn1;tn]jn=1;::;Ng,tn=(n=N)T,whereTisthelengthoftheday,thenthecorrespondingexpressionforthedailyVWAPisgivenby where isthevolumetradedduringtimeperiod(tn1;tn], canbethoughtofasanaveragemarketpriceduringthenthinterval. 15

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Valuesofxnareassumedtobenonnegative(i.e.thetraderisnotallowedtobuystocks). Weconstructthedynamictradingstrategybyforecastingthevolumesofstocktradedinthemarketduringeachintervalofatradingday.Weassumethatduringasmallinterval(about5min)wecanperformtransactionsattheaveragemarketpriceduringthisinterval.Then,from( 2{5 )itfollowsthatapossiblewaytomeetthemarketVWAPistotradetheorderproportionallytothemarketvolumeduringeachinterval,yieldingthesamedailydistributionofthetradedvolumeasthemarket'sone.Foreachintervalofadaywemakeaforecastofthemarketvolumethatwillbetradedduringthisintervalandthentradeaccordingtothisforecast.Attheendofthedayweobtaintheforecastofthefulldailyvolumedistribution;theorderistradedaccordingtothisdistribution. Thewayofdynamiccomputingofthedistributionshouldbediscussedrst.Directestimationsofproportionsofthemarketvolumev1;:::;vNdoesnotguaranteethatthe 16

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2-1 demonstratesthetworepresentationsofthevolumedistribution.Note,thatwNisalwaysequalto1.Thereisaone-to-onecorrespondencebetweenrepresentations(v1;:::;vN)and(w1;:::;wN);thetransitionsbetweenthemaregivenbyformulas and Thelastequationsfollowfromthefactthatwi(1wi1):::(1wim)=Vi 17

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ConsiderthegeneralregressionsettingwherearandomvariableYisapproximatedbyalinearcombination ofindicatorvariablesX1;:::;Xn.Inourstudythevariablesaremodelledbyasetofscenarios Forascenariostheapproximationerroris Weconsiderourregressionmodelasanoptimizationproblemofminimizingtheaggregatedapproximationerror.Belowwedescribepenaltyfunctionsweuseastheobjective. 2{8 ) 18

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2{9 ),theoptimizationproblemis minDMAD=1 2{10 ),howeverourintentionpenalizethelargest(bytheabsolutevalue)outcomesoftheerror.TogiveamoreformaldenitionoftheCVaR-objectiveandshowtherelevanceofusingitinregressionproblems,weeneedtorefertothenewlydevelopedtheoryofdeviationmeasuresandgeneralizedlinearregression,seeRockafellaretal.(2002b). CVaR-objectiveconsistsoftwoCVaR-deviations(Rockafellaretal.(2005a))andpenalizesthe-highestandthe-lowestoutcomesoftheestimationerror( 2{10 )foraspeciedcondencelevel(isusuallyexpressedinpercentages).WewilluseacombinationofCVaR-deviationsasanobjective: (2{13) =CVaR()+CVaR(): 2{8 )andtheminimization( 2{13 )determinestheoptimalvaluesofvariablesc1;:::;cnonly.Theoptimalvalueofthetermdcanbefoundfromdierentconsiderations;weusetheconditionthattheestimator( 2{8 )isnon-biased. 19

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minc;dCVaRYY+CVaRYYs:t:EY=E[Y]Y=Pni=1ciXi+d:(2{14) Since 1E[X];(2{15) optimizationprogram( 2{14 )becomes: minc;dCVaRYY+(1)CVaR1YYs:t:EY=E[Y]Y=Pni=1ciXi+d:(2{16) ThetermE[YY]isnotincludedintotheobjectivefunctionsinceE[YY]=0duetotherstconstraint. Forthecaseofscenarios( 2{9 )theoptimizationproblem( 2{16 )canbereducedtothefollowinglinearprogrammingproblem. min++(1)s:t:PSs=1[Pni=1ciXsi+d]=PSs=1Ys+1 (1)SPSs=1zs1zsYs(Pni=1ciXsi+d)zs1Ys(Pni=1ciXsi+d)1Variables:ci;d2Rfori=1;:::;n;;12R;zs;zs10fors=1;:::;S.(2{17) 2{14 )byDCVaR,thentheproblemwiththemixedobjectiveis 20

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minDMAD+IXi=1iDiCVaRsubjecttoconstraintsin( 2{17 ); wherei2[0;1];i=1;:::;I,+PIi=1i=1. Inourexperiments,weusedconvexcombinationsoftwoCVaR-objectives,onewiththecondencelevel50%: minD50%CVaR+(1)DCVaRsubjecttoconstraintsin( 2{17 ); andofthemean-absoluteerrorfunctionandtheCVaR-deviation: minDMAD+(1)DCVaRsubjecttoconstraintsin( 2{17 )withouttherstone; wherethebalancecoecient2[0;1].Forcomparison,dierenttypesofdeviationsarepresentedonFigure 2-2 2.4.1ModelDesign Weconsiderthefollowingregressionmodel 21

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2{21 ). Valuesofthecorrespondingparameterspj(kl);sandfractionsoftheremainingvolumewks,s=1;:::;S,i=1;:::;L,j=1;:::;P,arecollectedfromtheprecedingSdaysofthehistory.Thus,wehavethesetofscenarios Denotethelinearcombination as^wks,thecollectionofikjas~. Inourstudyweconsiderthefollowingoptimizationproblems: min~Ejwk^wkj;(2{24) min~CVaR(wk^wk)+CVaR(^wkwk)s:t:E[wk]=E[^wk](2{25) min~Ejwk^wkj+(1)CVaR(wk^wk)+CVaR(^wkwk)(2{26) min~CVaR50%(wk^wk)+CVaR50%(^wkwk)++(1)CVaR(wk^wk)+CVaR(^wkwk)s:t:E[wk]=E[^wk];(2{27) 22

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Bysolvingtheseproblems,theoptimalvalueof~isobtained.Theforecastofw0kisthenmadebytheexpression( 2{21 ). AftercalculatingdistancestoallSscenarios,wechooseSbestclosestscenarioscorrespondingtolowestvaluesofDiin( 2{28 ).Bydoingso,weeliminate"outliers"withunusual,withrespecttothecurrentday,behaviorofthemarketwhichfavorstheaccuracyofforecasting. 23

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theforecastedvolumesare thentheestimationerroris Wealsocalculatedanothererror Asabenchmarkmeasuringtherelativeaccuracyofthemodel"averagedailyvolumes"(ADV)strategywasused.ThisverysimplestrategyprovidesagoodapproximationtoVWAP.Supposeasetofhistoricalvolumesofthemarket: Denote Vn=SXs=1Vns;Vtotal=NXn=1Vn:(2{34) Thentheaveragevolumedistributionis (v1;:::;vN);vn=Vn AnexampleofaveragevolumedistributionversustheactualvolumeevolutionispresentedinFigure 2-3 .Itcanbeseenthatdailyvolumeexhibitsthe"U-shape"andthattheaveragedistributionprovidesagoodapproximationtothedailyvolumeevolution. 24

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2{32 ).Therelativegaininaccuracyoftheregressionalgorithmwasjudgedbythevalueof GMAD=MADADVMAD MADADV100%:(2{36) Relativegaininstandarddeviationis GSD=SDADVSD SDADV100%:(2{37) Withrespecttotheparameters( 2{21 )wetookfromeachinterval,theexperimentsweredividedintotwogroups. Intherstgroup,theexperimentswerebasedonusingonlypricesandvolumesofthestockasusefulinformation.Namely,fromeachintervalweusedthefollowinginformation: lnVandlnPclose whereVismarketvolumeduringtheinterval,PopenandPcloseareopenandclosepricesoftheinterval.R=Pclose=Popenis,therefore,thereturnduringtheinterval.Logarithmswereusedtotakeintoaccountthepossibilitythattheratiosofreturnsandvolumes,asidefromreturnsandvolumesthemselves,containsomeinformationaboutthefuturevolume.Alinearcombinationoflogarithmsofparameterscanberepresentedasalinearcombinationoftheparametersandtheirratios. 25

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lnV;lnPclose Theideaofusingindexinformationcomesfromthefactthatevolutionsofindexandstockarecorrelatedandthattheratiosofreturnsandpricesofstockandindexmayalsocontainusefulinformation. Tables 2-1 2-2 showtheresultsforthemean-absolutedeviationusedasanobjectiveanddierentvaluesofL;SandSbest.ThesetablesshowthatincludingINDEXdatadoesnotimprovetheaccuracyofprediction.Also,asonecannotice,thereisabalancebetweenthenumberoftermsNterm=LPinthelinearcombination( 2{21 )andthenumberofscenarios(Sbest)usedintheregressionmodel.AsNtermincreases,themodelbecomesmoreexibleandmorescenariosareneededtoachievethesamelevelofaccuracy.Forexample,thebesttwomodelsthatusestockdata(P=2),havevaluesofSbestandNtermequal450and4,200and2,respectively.Also,whentheindexdataisused,thenumberofparametersPdoubles,andthenumberofscenariosinthebestmodelsincreasesto700800forthesameregressionlengthL. InthecaseofCVaR-objectiveandmixedobjective(Tables 2-3 2-4 ),dierentvaluesofL;SandSbestyieldedasimilarorderofsuperiorityasinthecaseofthemean-absolutedeviation. Twomorefactscanbeseenfromtheresults.First,thatthemostsuccessfulmodelsuseinformationonlyfromthelastoneortwointervals,whichmeansthattheinformationaboutthefuturevolumeisconcentratedinthepastfewminutes.Second,theideaofchoosingtheclosestscenariosfromtheprecedinghistorydoeswork,especiallywhenasmallportionofnon-similardays(50or100outof500or800potentialscenarios)isexcluded.Thisagreeswiththeobservationthatmostofthedaysare"regular"enoughtobeusedfortheestimationofthefuture. 26

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2-5 wechangedtheformofthemixedobjective,thatis,dieredandin( 2{17 ).WefoundthatthebestmodelshaveallweightputontheCVaRobjectiveandforaxedbalancethemodelswithsmallvaluesofaresuperior. ThemostaccuratemodelturnedouttobetheonewithCVaR-objectivehavingtherelativegain4%. 27

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Performanceoftrackingmodels:stockvs.stock+index,fullhistoryregression SSbestLMAD,%SD,%GMAD,%GSD,% STOCK500500234.041.13.53.2500500134.141.43.42.5500500334.241.33.02.8800800234.342.12.70.9800800134.442.52.6-0.1800800334.442.22.40.5STOCK+INDEX500500134.141.03.23.5500500234.241.03.13.5800800134.241.23.13.1800800234.240.83.13.9800800334.340.72.74.0500500334.441.22.43.0 Table2-2. Performanceoftrackingmodels:stockvs.stock+index,bestsampleregression SSbestLMAD,%SD,%GMAD,%GSD,% STOCK500450234.040.83.74.0500200134.039.43.67.1500450134.041.03.63.3500400234.040.53.64.6500400134.041.03.53.3800500234.241.03.13.4500450334.241.13.03.1800700234.342.12.90.9STOCK+INDEX500450134.140.63.34.4500450234.140.13.25.4800750134.240.83.23.8800750234.240.83.24.0800700134.240.93.13.7800700234.240.53.14.6500400134.341.03.03.5500400234.341.12.83.3 28

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Performanceoftrackingmodels:mixedobjective,changingsizeofhistoryandbestsample SSbestL,%,%MAD,%SD,%GMAD,%GSD,% STOCK5004502305034.040.83.74.05002001305034.039.43.67.25004501305034.041.03.63.45004002305034.040.53.64.65004001305034.041.03.53.35005002305034.041.13.53.25005001305034.141.43.42.58005002305034.241.03.03.4 Table2-4. Performanceoftrackingmodels:CVaRdeviation,changingsizeofhistoryandbestsample SSbestL,%,%MAD,%SD,%GMAD,%GSD,% STOCK50040023010033.940.74.04.150020013010033.939.73.96.650020023010033.939.43.97.150045023010033.940.83.94.050048023010033.940.83.83.050040033010034.040.43.74.950040013010034.041.13.73.350045013010034.041.03.73.4 Table2-5. Performanceoftrackingmodels:mixedobjective SSbestL,%,%MAD,%SD,%GMAD,%GSD,% STOCK50045022010033.940.74.04.250045023010033.939.63.94.450045021010033.939.83.94.0500450253033.940.63.94.55004502103033.940.73.94.15004502203034.040.73.84.15004502510034.041.63.84.45004502303034.041.73.84.2 29

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Percentagesofremainingvolumevs.percentagesoftotalvolume MAD,CVaR,andmixeddeviations 30

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Dailyvolumedistributions 31

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Below,werefertooptionpricingmethodsdirectlyrelatedtoouralgorithm.AlthoughthispaperconsidersEuropeanoptions,somerelatedpapersconsiderAmericanoptions. Replicationoftheoptionpricebyaportfolioofsimplerassets,usuallyoftheunderlyingstockandarisk-freebond,canincorporatevariousmarketfrictions,suchastransactioncostsandtradingrestrictions.Forincompletemarkets,replication-basedmodelsarereducedtolinear,quadratic,orstochasticprogrammingproblems,see,forinstance,BouchaudandPotters(2000),Bertsimasetal.(2001),DemboandRosen(1999),Colemanetal.(2004),NaikandUppal(1994),Dennis(2001),DempsterandThompson ThischapterisbasedonthepaperRyabchenko,V.,Sarykalin,S.,andUryasev,S.(2004)PricingEuropeanOptionsbyNumericalReplication:QuadraticProgrammingwithConstraints.Asia-PacicFinancialMarkets,11(3),301-333. 32

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Analyticalapproachestominimizationofquadraticriskareusedtocalculateanoptionpriceinanincompletemarket,seeDueandRichardson(1991),FollmerandSchied(2002),FollmerandSchweizer(1989),Schweizer(1991,1995,2001). Anothergroupofmethods,whicharebasedonasignicantlydierentprinciple,incorporatesknownpropertiesoftheshapeoftheoptionpriceintothestatisticalanalysisofmarketdata.Ait-SahaliaandDuarte(2003)incorporatemonotonicandconvexpropertiesofEuropeanoptionpricewithrespecttothestrikepriceintoapolynomialregressionofoptionprices.Inouralgorithmwelimitthesetoffeasiblehedgingstrategies,imposingconstraintsonthehedgingportfoliovalueandthestockposition.ThepropertiesoftheoptionpriceandthestockpositionandboundsontheoptionpricehasbeenstudiedboththeoreticallyandempiricallybyMerton(1973),PerrakisandRyan(1984),Ritchken(1985),BertsimasandPopescu(1999),GotohandKonno(2002),andLevi(85).Inthispaper,wemodelstockandbondpositionsonatwo-dimensionalgridandimposeconstraintsonthegridvariables.Theseconstraintsfollowundersomegeneralassumptionsfromnon-arbitrageconsiderations.SomeoftheseconstraintsaretakenfromMerton(1973). Monte-CarlomethodsforpricingoptionsarepioneeredbyBoyle(1977).Theyarewidelyusedinoptionspricing:Joyetal.(1996),BroadieandGlasserman(2004),LongstaandSchwartz(2001),Carriere(1996),TsitsiklisandVanRoy(2001).ForasurveyofliteratureinthisareaseeBoyle(1997)andGlasserman(2004).Regression-basedapproachesintheframeworkofMonte-CarlosimulationwereconsideredforpricingAmericanoptionsbyCarriere(1996),LongstaandSchwartz(2001),TsitsiklisandVanRoy(1999,2001).BroadieandGlasserman(2004)proposedstochasticmeshmethodwhichcombinedmodellingonadiscretemeshwithMonte-Carlosimulation.Glasserman(2004),showedthatregression-basedapproachesarespecialcasesofthestochasticmeshmethod. 33

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Thepricingalgorithmdescribedinthispapercombinesthefeaturesoftheaboveapproachesinthefollowingway.Weconstructahedgingportfolioconsistingoftheunderlyingstockandarisk-freebondanduseitsvalueasanapproximationtotheoptionprice.Weaimedatmakingthehedgingstrategyclosetoreal-lifetrading.Theactualtradingoccursatdiscretetimesandisnotself-nancingatre-balancingpoints.Theshortageofmoneyshouldbecoveredatanydiscretepoint.Largeshortagesareundesirableatanytimemoment,evenifself-nancingispresent.Weconsidernon-self-nancinghedgingstrategies.Externalnancingoftheportfolioorwithdrawalisallowedatanyre-balancingpoint.Weuseasetofsamplepathstomodeltheunderlyingstockbehavior.Thepositioninthestockandtheamountofmoneyinvestedinthebond(hedgingvariables)aremodelledonnodesofadiscretegridintimeandthestockprice.Twomatricesdeningstockandbondpositionsongridnodescompletelydeterminethehedgingportfolioonanypricepathoftheunderlyingstock.Also,theydetermineamountsofmoneyaddedto/takenfromtheportfolioatre-balancingpoints.Thesumofsquaresofsuchadditions/subtractionsofmoneyonapathisreferredtoasthesquarederroronapath. Thepricingproblemisreducedtoquadraticminimizationwithconstraints.Theobjectiveistheaveragedquadraticerroroverallsamplepaths;thefreevariablesarestockandbondpositionsdenedineverynodeofthegrid.Theconstraints,limitingthefeasiblesetofhedgingstrategies,restricttheportfoliovaluesestimatingtheoptionpriceandstockpositions.Werequiredthattheaverageoftotalexternalnancingoverallpathsequalstozero.Thismakesthestrategy"self-nancingonaverage".Weincorporatedmonotonic, 34

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Weperformedtwonumericaltestsofthealgorithm.First,wepricedoptionsonthestockfollowingthegeometricBrownianmotion.StockpriceismodelledbyMonte-Carlosample-paths.CalculatedoptionpricesarecomparedwiththeknownpricesgivenbytheBlack-Scholesformula.Second,wepricedoptionsonS&P500Indexandcomparedtheresultswithactualmarketprices.Bothnumericaltestsdemonstratedreasonableaccuracyofthepricingalgorithmwitharelativelysmallnumberofsample-paths(consideredcasesinclude100and20sample-paths).Wecalculatedoptionpricesbothindollarsandintheimpliedvolatilityformat.TheimpliedvolatilitymatchesreasonablywelltheconstantvolatilityforoptionsintheBlack-Scholessetting.TheimpliedvolatilityforS&P500indexoptions(pricedwith100sample-paths)trackstheactualmarketvolatilitysmile. Theadvantageofusingthesquarederrorasanobjectivecanbeseenfromthepracticalperspective.Althoughweallowsomeexternalnancingoftheportfolioalongthepath,theminimizationofthesquarederrorensuresthatlargeshortagesofmoneywillnotoccuratanypointoftimeiftheobtainedhedgingstrategyispracticallyimplemented. Anotheradvantageofusingthesquarederroristhatthealgorithmproducesahedgingstrategysuchthatthesumofmoneyaddedto/takenfromthehedgingportfolioonanypathisclosetozero.Also,theobtainedhedgingstrategyrequireszeroaverageexternalnancingoverallpaths.Thisjustiesconsideringtheinitialvalueofthehedgingportfolioasapriceofanoption.Weusethenotionof"apriceofanoptioninthepracticalsetting"whichisthepriceatraderagreestobuy/selltheoption.Intheexample 35

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Weassumeanincompletemarketinthispaper.Weusetheportfoliooftwoinstruments-theunderlyingstockandabond-toapproximatetheoptionpriceandconsidermanysamplepathstomodelthestockpriceprocess.Asaconsequence,thevalueofthehedgingportfoliomaynotbeequaltotheoptionpayoatexpirationonsomesamplepaths.Also,thealgorithmisdistribution-free,whichmakesitapplicabletoawiderangeofunderlyingstockprocesses.Therefore,thealgorithmcanbeusedintheframeworkofanincompletemarket. Usefulnessofouralgorithmshouldbeviewedfromtheperspectiveofpracticaloptionspricing.Commonlyusedmethodsofoptionspricingaretime-continuousmodelsassumingspecictypeoftheunderlyingstockprocess.Iftheprocessisknown,thesemethodsprovideaccuratepricing.Ifthestockprocesscannotbeclearlyidentied,thechoiceofthestockprocessandcalibrationoftheprocesstotmarketdatamayentailsignicantmodellingerror.Ouralgorithmissuperiorinthiscase.Itisdistribution-freeandisbasedonrealisticassumptions,suchasdiscretetradingandnon-self-nancinghedgingstrategy. Anotheradvantageofouralgorithmislowback-testingerrors.Time-continuousmodelsdonotaccountforerrorsofimplementationonhistoricalpaths.Theobjectiveinouralgorithmistominimizetheback-testingerrorsonhistoricalpaths.Therefore,thealgorithmhasaveryattractiveback-testingperformance.Thisfeatureisnotsharedbyanyoftime-continuousmodels. 36

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3.2.1PortfolioDynamicsandSquaredError Thepriceoftheoptionattimetjisapproximatedbythepricecjofahedgingportfolioconsistingoftheunderlyingstockandarisk-freebond.Thehedgingportfolioisrebalancedattimestj,j=1;:::;N1.Supposethatatthetimetj1thehedgingportfolioconsistsofuj1sharesofthestockandvk1dollarsinvestedinthebond tobenon-zero.Thevalueajistheexcess/shortfallofthemoneyinthehedgingportfolioduringtheinterval[tj1;tj].Inotherwords,ajistheamountofmoneyaddedto(ifaj0)orsubtractedfrom(ifaj<0)theportfolioduringtheinterval[tj1;tj].Thus,theinow/outowofmoneyto/fromthehedgingportfolioisallowed. 37

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Thenon-self-nancingportfoliodynamicsisgivenby wheretheportfoliovalueattimetjiscj=ujSj+vj;j=0;:::;N. Thedegreetowhichaportfoliodynamicsdiersfromaself-nancingoneisanimportantcharacteristic,essentialtoourapproach.Inthispaper,wedeneasquarederroronapath, tomeasurethedegreeof\non-self-nancity".Thereasonsforchoosingthisparticularmeasurewillbedescribedlateron. 38

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[Ukj]=266666664U10U11:::U1NU20U21:::U2N............UK0UK1:::UKN377777775;[Vkj]=266666664V10V11:::V1NV20V21:::V2N............VK0VK1:::VKN377777775(3{4) arereferredtoasahedgingstrategy.Thesematricesdeneportfoliomanagementdecisionsonthediscretesetofthegridnodes.Inordertosetthosedecisionsonanypath,notnecessarilygoingthroughgridpoints,approximationrulesaredened. Wemodelthestockpricedynamicsbyasetofsamplepaths whereS0istheinitialprice.Letvariablesupjandvpjdenethecompositionofthehedgingportfolioonpathpattimetj,wherep=1;:::;P,j=0;:::;N.ThesevariablesareapproximatedbythegridvariablesUkjandVkjasfollows.SupposethatfS0;Sp1;:::;SpNgisarealizationofthestockprice,whereSpjdenotesthepriceofthestockattimetjonpathp,j=0;:::;N,p=1;:::;P.Letupjandvpjdenotetheamountsofthestockandthebond,respectively,heldinthehedgingportfolioattimetjonpathp.VariablesupjandvpjarelinearlyapproximatedbythegridvariablesUkjandVkjasfollows 39

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3{1 ),wedenetheexcess/shortageofmoneyinthehedgingportfolioonpathpattimetjbyapj=upj+1Spj+1+vpj+1(upjSpj+1+(1+r)vpj): WedenetheaveragesquarederrorEonthesetofpaths( 3{5 )asanaverageofsquarederrorsEpoverallsamplepaths( 3{5 ) E=1 Thematrices[Ukj]and[Vkj]andtheapproximationrule( 3{6 )specifythecompositionofthehedgingportfolioasafunctionoftimeandthestockprice.Foranygivenstockpricepathonecanndthecorrespondingportfoliomanagementdecisionsf(uj;vj)jj=0;:::;N1g,thevalueoftheportfoliocj=Sjuj+vjatanytimetj,j=0;:::;N,andtheassociatedsquarederror. Thevalueofanoptioninquestionisassumedtobeequaltotheinitialvalueofthehedgingportfolio.Firstcolumnsofmatrices[Ukj]and[Vkj],namelythevariablesUk0andVk0,k=1;:::;K;determinetheinitialvalueoftheportfolio.Ifoneoftheinitialgridnodes,forexamplenode(0;~k);correspondstothestockpriceS0,thenthepriceoftheoptionisgivenbyU~k0S0+V~k0:Iftheinitialpoint(t=0;S=S0)ofthestockprocessfallsbetweentheinitialgridnodes(0;k),k=1;:::;K,thenapproximationformula( 3{6 )withj=0andSp0=S0isusedtondtheinitialcomposition(u0;v0)oftheportfolio.Then,thepriceoftheoptionisfoundasu0S0+v0. 40

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minE=1 3{6 ),constraints( 3{10 )-( 3{18 )(denedbelow)forcalloptions,orconstraints( 3{19 )-( 3{27 )(denedbelow)forputoptions,freevariables:Ukj;Vkj;j=0;:::;N;k=1;:::;K: 3{9 )istheaveragesquarederroronthesetofpaths( 3{5 ).Therstconstraintrequiresthattheaveragevalueoftotalexternalnancingoverallpathsequalstozero.Thesecondconstraintequatesthevalueoftheportfolioandtheoptionpayoatexpiration.FreevariablesinthisproblemarethegridvariablesUkjandVkj;thepathvariablesupjandvpjintheobjectiveareexpressedintermsofthegridvariablesusingapproximation( 3{6 ).Thetotalnumberoffreevariablesintheproblemisdeterminedbythesizeofthegridandisindependentofthenumberofsample-paths.Aftersolvingtheoptimizationproblem,theoptionvalueattimetjforthestockpriceSjisdenedbyujSj+vj,whereujandvjarefoundfrommatrices[Ukj]and[Vkj],respectively,using 41

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3{6 ).Thepriceoftheoptionistheinitialvalueofthehedgingportfolio,calculatedasu0S0+v0. Thefollowingconstraints( 3{10 )-( 3{18 )forcalloptionsor( 3{19 )-( 3{27 )forputoptionsimposerestrictionsontheshapeoftheoptionvaluefunctionandonthepositioninthestock.Theserestrictionsreducethefeasiblesetofhedgingstrategies.Subsection3.3discussesthebenetsofinclusionoftheseconstraintsintheoptimizationproblem. Below,weconsidertheconstraintsforEuropeancalloptions.Theconstraintsforputoptionsaregiveninthenextsection,togetherwithproofsoftheconstraints.Mostoftheconstraintsarejustiedinaquitegeneralsetting.Weassumenon-arbitrageandmake5additionalassumptions.Proofsoftwoconstraintsonthestockposition(horizontalmonotinicityandconvexity)inthegeneralsettingwillbeaddressedinsubsequentpapers.InthispaperwevalidatetheseinequalitiesintheBlack-Scholescase. ThenotationCkjstandsfortheoptionvalueinthenode(j;k)ofthegrid,Ckj=Ukj~Skj+Vkj: 3{10 )coincideswiththeimmediateexercisevalueofanAmericanoptionhavingthecurrentstockprice~SkjandthestrikepriceXer(Ttj):

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Thisconstraintsboundsensitivityofanoptionpricetochangesinthestockprice. 0. Verticalmonotonicity.Foranyxedtime,thepriceofanoptionisanincreasingfunctionofthestockprice. ~Skj 0. Horizontalmonotonicity.Thepriceofanoptionisadecreasingfunctionoftime. 0Ukj1;j=0;:::;N;k=1;:::;K:(3{15) 43

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(1k+1j)Uk+2j+k+1jUkjUk+1j;ifk>^k;(1k1j)Uk2j+k1jUkjUk1j;ifk^k;whereljissuchthat~Slj=lj~Sl1j+(1lj)~Sl+1j;l=(k+1);(k1): 3.3.4 ). Theexpectedhedgingerrorisanestimateof\non-self-nancity"ofthehedgingstrategy.Thepricingalgorithmseeksastrategyascloseaspossibletoaself-nancingone,satisfyingtheimposedconstraints.Ontheotherhand,fromatrader'sviewpoint,theshortageofmoneyatanyportfoliore-balancingpointcausestheriskassociatedwiththehedgingstrategy.Theaveragesquarederrorcanbeviewedasanestimatorofthisriskonthesetofpathsconsideredintheproblem. Thereareotherwaystomeasuretheriskassociatedwithahedgingstrategy.Forexample,Bertsimasetal.(2001)considersaself-nancingdynamicsofahedgingportfolioandminimizesthesquaredreplicationerroratexpiration.Inthecontextofourframework,dierentestimatorsofriskcanbeusedasobjectivefunctionsintheoptimizationproblem( 3{9 )and,therefore,producedierentresults.However,consideringotherobjectivesisbeyondthescopeofthispaper. 44

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3{10 )-( 3{14 )forcalloptionsand( 3{19 )-( 3{23 )forputoptionsfollowunderquitegeneralassumptionsfromthenon-arbitrageconsiderations.Thetypeoftheunderlyingstockpriceprocessplaysnoroleintheapproach:thesetofsamplepaths( 3{5 )speciesthebehavioroftheunderlyingstock.Forthisreason,theapproachisdistribution-freeandcanbeappliedtopricinganyEuropeanoptionindependentlyofthepropertiesoftheunderlyingstockpriceprocess.Also,asshowninsection5presentingnumericalresults,theinclusionofconstraintstoproblem( 3{9 )makesthealgorithmquiterobusttothesizeofinputdata. Thegridstructureisconvenientforimposingtheconstraints,sincetheycanbestatedaslinearinequalitiesonthegridvariablesUkjandVkj.Animportantpropertyofthealgorithmisthatthenumberofthevariablesinproblem( 3{9 )isdeterminedbythesizeofthegridandisindependentofthenumberofsamplepaths. 3{16 )-( 3{18 )requiringmonotonicityandconcavityofthestockpositionwithrespecttothestockpriceandmonotonicityofthestockpositionwithrespecttotime(constraints( 3{25 )-( 3{27 )forputoptionsarepresentedinthenextsection).Thegoalistolimitthevariabilityofthestockpositionwithrespecttotimeandstockprice,whichwouldleadtosmallertransactioncostsofimplementingahedgingstrategy.Theminimizationoftheaveragesquarederroris 45

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3.4.1ConstraintsforPutOptions 3{9 )forpricingEuropeanputoptions. 0. Verticalmonotonicity. 0. Horizontalmonotonicity. 46

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3{9 )weusedthefollowingconstraintsholdingforoptionsinquiteageneralcase.Weassumenon-arbitrageandmaketechnicalassumptions1-5(usedbyMerton(1973)forderivingpropertiesofcallandputoptionvalues.SomeoftheconsideredpropertiesofoptionvaluesareprovedbyMerton(1973).Otherinequalitiesareprovedbytheauthors. Therestofthesectionisorganizedasfollows.First,weformulateandproveinequalities( 3{10 )-( 3{14 )forcalloptions.Someoftheconsideredpropertiesofoption 47

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3{9 ),theyareusedinproofsofsomeofconstraints( 3{10 )-( 3{14 ).Inparticular,weakandstrongscalingpropertiesandtwoinequalitiesprecedingproofsofoptionpricesensitivityconstraintsandconvexityconstraintsarenotincludedinthesetofconstraints. Second,weconsiderinequalities( 3{19 )-( 3{23 )forputoptions.Weprovideproofsofverticalandhorizontaloptionpricemonotonicity;proofsofotherinequalitiesaresimilartothoseforcalloptions. Weusethefollowingnotations.C(St;T;X)andP(St;T;X)denotepricesofcallandputoptions,respectively,withstrikeX,expirationT,whenthestockpriceattimetisSt.Whenappropriate,weuseshorternotationsCtandPttorefertotheseoptions. SimilartoMerton(1973),wemakethefollowingassumptionstoderiveinequalities( 3{10 )-( 3{14 )and( 3{19 )-( 3{23 ). Belowaretheproofsofinequalities( 3{10 )-( 3{14 ). 1."Immediateexercise"constraints.Merton(1973)Ct[StXer(Tt)]+:

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Foranyk>0considertwostockpriceprocessesS(t)andkS(t).Fortheseprocesses,thefollowinginequalityisvalidC(kSt;T;kX)=kC(St;T;X);whereStisthevalueoftheprocessS(t)attimet. Underassumptions4and5,thecalloptionpriceC(S;T;X)ishomogeneousofdegreeoneinthestockpricepershareandexerciseprice.Inotherwords,ifC(S;T;X)andC(kS;T;kX)areoptionpricesonstockswithinitialpricesSandkSandstrikesXandkX,respectively,thenC(kS;T;kX)=kC(S;T;X): NowconsideranoptionCwiththestrikeX1writtenononeshareofthestock1.DenoteitspricebyC1(S1;T;X1):OptionsAandChaveequalinitialpricesS1=1 49

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ForanyX1,X2suchthat0X1X2,thefollowinginequalityholdsC(St;T;X1)C(St;T;X2)+(X2X1)er(Tt):

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FortwooptionswithstrikeXandinitialpricesS1andS2,S2S1,thereholdsC(S1;T;X)S1 X1;T;X):BysettingX1=S1 LetC(t;S;T;X)denotethepriceofaEuropeancalloptionwithinitialtimet;initialpriceattimetequaltoS;timetomaturityT;andstrikeX:Undertheassumptions1,2and3foranyt,u,t
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multiplyingbothsidesofthepreviousinequalitybyS3givesS3C(1;T;X3)S1C(1;T;X1)+(1)S2C(1;T;X2):Further,usingtheweakscalingproperty,wegetC(S3;T;S3X3)C(S1;T;S1X1)+(1)C(S2;T;S2X2):UsingdenitionsofX1andX2andexpandingS3X3asS3(X1+(1)X2)=S3X0B@ S1+1 S21CA==S3X0B@S1 S3+1 S31CA=X;

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1.\Immediateexercise"constraints. Foranyk>0,considertwostockpriceprocessesS(t)andkS(t).Fortheseprocessesthefollowinginequalityholds:P1(kSt;T;kX)=kP2(St;T;X);whereP1andP2areoptionsontherstandthesecondstocksrespectively. Undertheassumptions4and5,putoptionvalueP(S;T;X)ishomogeneousofdegreeoneinthestockpriceandthestrikeprice,i.e.,foranyk>0;P(kS;T;kX)=kP(S;T;X): 53

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Underassumptions1,2,and3,foranyinitialtimestandu,t
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3{15 )-( 3{18 )and( 3{24 )-( 3{27 )onthestockposition.Stockpositionboundsandverticalmonotonicityareproveninthegeneralcase(i.e.underassumptions1-5andthenon-arbitrageassumption);horizontalmonotonicityandconvexityarejustiedundertheassumptionthatthestockprocessfollowsthegeometricBrownianmotion. ThenotationC(S;T;X)(P(S;T;X))standsforthepriceofacall(put)optionwiththeinitialpriceS,timetoexpirationT,andthestrikepriceX.Thecorrespondingpositioninthestock(forbothcallandputoptions)isdenotedbyU(S;T;X). First,wepresenttheproofsofinequalities( 3{15 )-( 3{18 )forcalloptions. 1.Verticalmonotonicity(Calloptions). 0U(S;T;X)1SincetheoptionpriceC(S;t;X)isanincreasingfunctionofthestockpriceS,itfollowsthatU(S;t;X)=C0s(S;t;X)0. NowweneedtoprovethatU(S;t;X)1.WewillassumethatthereexistssuchSthatC0s(S)forsome>1andwillshowthatthisassumptioncontradictstheineqiality

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3)Horizontalmonotonicity(Calloptions) 2dZ;(3{29) andd1andd2aregivenbyexpressionsd1=1 2p 2p

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2)+ln(S X)2 X 2: X:F(S)0(implyingU0t(S;T;X)0)whenSLandF(S)0(implyingU0t(S;T;X)0)whenSL,whereL=XeT(r+2=2): 3-7 ). TheError(%)columncontainserrorsofapproximatinginexionpointsbystrikeprices.Theseerrorsdonotexceed3%forabroadrangeofparameters.Weconcludethatinexionpointscanbeapproximatedbystrikepricesforoptionsconsideredinthecasestudy. 3{24 )-( 3{27 )forputoptions. 57

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58

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3-1 3-3 ,and 3-4 report\relative"valuesofstrikesandoptionprices,i.e.strikesandpricesdividedbytheinitialstockprice.Pricesofoptionsarealsogivenintheimpliedvolatilityformat,i.e.,foractualandcalculatedpriceswefoundthevolatilityimpliedbytheBlack-Scholesformula. 3-1 Table1showsquitereasonableperformanceofthealgorithm:theerrorsintheprice(Err(%),Table 3-1 )arelessthan2%formostofcalculatedputandcalloptions. Also,itcanbeseenthatthevolatilityisquiteatforbothcallandputoptions.Theerrorofimpliedvolatilitydoesnotexceed2%formostcallandputoptions(Vol.Err(%),Table 3-1 ).Thevolatilityerrorslightlyincreasesforout-of-the-moneyputsandin-the-moneycalls. 3-2 .Theactualmarketpriceofanoptionisassumedtobetheaverageofitsbidandaskprices.ThepriceoftheS&P500indexwasmodelledbyhistoricalsample-paths.Non-overlappingpathsoftheindexweretakenfromthehistoricaldatasetandnormalizedsuchthatallpathshavethesameinitialpriceS0.Then,thesetofpathswas\massaged"tochangethespreadofpathsuntiltheoptionwiththeclosesttoat-the-moneystrikeispricedcorrectly.Thissetofpathswiththeadjustedvolatilitywasusedtopriceoptionswiththeremainingstrikes. Table 3-3 displaystheresultsofpricingusing100historicalsample-paths.Thepricingerror(seeErr(%),Table 3-3 )isaround1:0%forallcallandputoptionsandincreases 59

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3-4 showsthatin-the-moneyS&P500indexoptionscanbepricedquiteaccuratelywith20sample-paths.)Atthesametime,themethodisexibleenoughtotakeadvantageofspecicfeaturesofhistoricalsample-paths.WhenappliedtoS&P500indexoptions,thealgorithmwasabletomatchthevolatilitysmilereasonablywell(Figures 3.6 3.6 ).Atthesametime,theimpliedvolatilityofoptionscalculatedintheBlack-Scholessettingisreasonablyat(Figures 3.6 3.6 ).Therefore,onecanconcludethattheinformationcausingthevolatilitysmileiscontainedinthehistoricalsample-paths.Thisobservationisinaccordancewiththepriorknownfactthatthenon-normalityofassetpricedistributionisoneofcausesofthevolatilitysmile. Figures 3.6 3.6 3.6 ,and 3.6 presentdistributionsoftotalexternalnancing(PNj=1apjerj)onsamplepathsanddistributionsofdiscountedmoneyinows/outows(apjerj)atre-balancingpointsforBlack-ScholesandSPXcalloptions.WesummarizestatisticalpropertiesofthesedistributionsinTable( 3-5 ). Figures 3.6 3.6 3.6 ,and 3.6 alsoshowthattheobtainedpricessatisfythenon-arbitragecondition.Withrespecttopricingasingleoption,thenon-arbitrageconditionisunderstoodinthefollowingsense.Iftheinitialvalueofthehedgingportfolioisconsideredasapriceoftheoption,thenatexpirationthecorrespondinghedgingstrategyshouldoutperformtheoptionpayoonsomesamplepaths,andunderperformtheoptionpayoonsomeothersamplepaths.Otherwise,thefreemoneycanbeobtainedbyshortingtheoptionandbuyingthehedgingportfolioorviseversa.Thealgorithmproducesthepriceoftheoptionsatisfyingthenon-arbitrageconditioninthissense.Thevalueofexternal 60

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Thepricingproblemisreducedtoquadraticprogramming,whichisquiteecientfromthecomputationalstandpoint.ForthegridconsistingofProws(thestockpriceaxis)andNcolumns(thetimeaxis),thenumberofvariablesintheproblem( 3{9 )is2PNandthenumberofconstraintsisO(NK),regardlessofthenumberofsamplepaths.Table 3-6 presentscalculationtimesfordierentsizesofthegridwithCPLEX9.0quadraticprogrammingsolveronPentium4,1.7GHz,1GBRAMcomputer. Inordertocompareouralgorithmwithexistingpricingmethods,weneedtoconsideroptionspricingfromthepracticalperspective.Pricingofactuallytradedoptionsincludesthreesteps. Mostcommonlyusedapproachforpracticalpricingofoptionsistimecontinuousmethodswithaspecicunderlyingstockprocess(Black-Scholesmodel,stochasticvolatilitymodel,jump-diusionmodel,etc).Wewillrefertothesemethodsasprocess-specicmethods.Inordertojudgetheadvantagesoftheproposedalgorithmagainsttheprocess-specicmethods,weshouldcomparethemstepbystep. 61

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Ouralgorithmdoesnotrelyonsomespecicmodelanddoesnothaveerrorsrelatedtothechoiceofthespecicprocess.Also,wehaverealisticassumptions,suchasdiscretetrading,non-self-nancinghedgingstrategy,andpossibilitytointroducetransactioncosts(thisfeatureisnotdirectlypresentedinthepaper). Calibrationofprocess-specicmethodsusuallyrequireasmallamountofmarketdata.Ouralgorithmcompeteswellinthisrespect.Weimposeconstraintsreducingfeasiblesetofhedgingstrategies,whichallowspricingwithverysmallnumberofsamplepaths. Themajoradvantageofouralgorithmisthattheerrorsofback-testinginourcasecanbemuchlowerthantheerrorsofprocess-specicmethods.Thereasonbeing,theminimizationoftheback-testingerroronhistoricalpathsistheobjectiveinouralgorithm.Minimizationofthesquarederroronhistoricalpathsensuresthattheneedofadditionalnancingtopracticallyhedgetheoptionisthelowestpossible.Noneoftheprocess-specicmethodspossessthisproperty. 62

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Thispaperistherstintheseriesofpapersdevotedtoimplementationofthedevelopedalgorithmtovarioustypesofoptions.OurtargetispricingAmerican-styleandexoticoptionsandtreatmentactualmarketconditionssuchastransactioncosts,slippageofhedgingpositions,hedgingoptionswithmultipleinstrumentsandotherissues.Inthispaperweestablishedbasicsofthemethod;thesubsequentpaperswillconcentrateonmorecomplexcases. 63

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Impliedvolatilityvs.strike:CalloptionsonS&P500indexpricedusing100samplepaths.BasedonpricesincolumnsCalc.Vol(%)andAct.Vol(%)ofTable 3-3 .CalculatedVol(%)=impliedvolatilityofcalculatedoptionsprices(100sample-paths),ActualVol(%)=impliedvolatilityofmarketoptionsprices,strikepriceisshiftedleftbythevalueoftheloweststrike. Figure3-2. Impliedvolatilityvs.strike:PutoptionsonS&P500indexpricedusing100samplepaths.BasedonpricesincolumnsCalc.Vol(%)andAct.Vol(%)ofTable 3-3 .CalculatedVol(%)=impliedvolatilityofcalculatedoptionsprices(100sample-paths),ActualVol(%)=impliedvolatilityofmarketoptionsprices,strikepriceisshiftedleftbythevalueoftheloweststrike. 64

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Impliedvolatilityvs.strike:CalloptionsinBlack-Scholessettingpricedusing200samplepaths.BasedonpricesincolumnsCalc.Vol(%)andB-S.Vol(%)ofTable 3-1 .CalculatedVol(%)=impliedvolatilityofcalculatedoptionsprices(200sample-paths),ActualVol(%)=atvolatilityimpliedbyBlack-Scholesformula,strikepriceisshiftedleftbythevalueoftheloweststrike. Figure3-4. Impliedvolatilityvs.strike:PutoptionsinBlack-Scholessettingpricedusing200samplepaths.BasedonpricesincolumnsCalc.Vol(%)andB-S.Vol(%)ofTable 3-1 .CalculatedVol(%)=impliedvolatilityofcalculatedoptionsprices(200sample-paths),ActualVol(%)=atvolatilityimpliedbyBlack-Scholesformula,strikepriceisshiftedleftbythevalueoftheloweststrike. 65

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Black-Scholescalloption:distributionofthetotalexternalnancingonsamplepaths.Initialprice=$62,strike=$62timetoexpiration=70,risk-freerate=10%,volatility=20%.Stockpriceismodelledwith200Monte-Carlosamplepaths. Figure3-6. Black-Scholescalloption:distributionofdiscountedinows/outowsatre-balancingpoints.Initialprice=$62,strike=$62timetoexpiration=70,risk-freerate=10%,volatility=20%.Stockpriceismodelledwith200Monte-Carlosamplepaths. 66

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SPXcalloption:distributionofthetotalexternalnancingonsamplepaths.Initialprice=$1183:77,strikeprice=$1190timetoexpiration=49days,risk-freerate=2:3%.Stockpriceismodelledwith100samplepaths. Figure3-8. SPXcalloption:distributionofdiscountedinows/outowsatre-balancingpoints.Initialprice=$1183:77,strikeprice=$1190timetoexpiration=49days,risk-freerate=2:3%.Stockpriceismodelledwith100samplepaths. 67

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PricesofoptionsonthestockfollowingthegeometricBrownianmotion:calculatedversusBlack-Scholesprices. StrikeCalc.B-SErr(%)Calc.Vol.(%)B-S.Vol.(%)Vol.Err(%) Calloptions1.1450.00370.0038-3.7819.6320.00-1.861.1130.00750.00741.3519.9120.00-0.461.0810.01340.01330.6519.8720.00-0.651.0480.02260.0227-0.0419.7920.00-1.041.0160.03640.03610.8019.9420.00-0.281.0000.04460.04450.1919.8220.00-0.920.9680.06510.06480.4719.9420.00-0.310.9350.08910.0892-0.0819.5920.00-2.070.9030.11660.1168-0.1119.2920.00-3.560.8710.14640.1465-0.0718.7120.00-6.44Putoptions1.1450.12740.1276-0.1619.7320.00-1.361.1130.09950.09940.0420.0320.000.171.0810.07380.07380.0520.0220.000.121.0480.05140.0514-0.1019.9720.00-0.161.0160.03340.03320.7120.1420.000.681.0000.02580.02580.1520.0220.000.110.9680.01470.01441.8220.1920.000.930.9350.00700.0071-1.6019.8920.00-0.560.9030.00290.0031-5.7719.7120.00-1.450.8710.00100.0011-12.8819.5220.00-2.41 Initialprice=$62,timetoexpiration=69days,risk-freerate=10%,volatility=20%,200samplepathsgeneratedbyMonte-Carlosimulation. Strike($)=optionstrikeprice,Calc.=obtainedoptionprice(relative),BS=Black-Scholesoptionprice(relative),Err=(FoundBS)=BS,Calc.Vol.=obtainedoptionpriceinvolatilityform,BS.Vol.(%)=Black-Scholesvolatility,Vol.Err(%)=(Calc:Vol:BS.Vol.)=BS.Vol.

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S&P500ptionsdataset. StrikeBidAskPriceRel.Pr StrikeBidAskPriceRel.Pr CalloptionsPutoptions1500N/A0.5N/AN/A 1500311.3313.3312.30.263813250.30.50.40.0003 1300112.7114.7113.70.096013000.450.80.6250.0005 127588.890.889.80.075912751.151.651.40.0012 122546.948.947.90.040512503.74.23.950.0033 121036.938.937.90.032012258.69.69.10.0077 120031.033.032.00.0270121013.214.814.00.0118 119026.128.127.10.0229120017.518.918.20.0154 117519.821.420.60.0174119022.124.123.10.0195 115012.514.013.250.0112117530.832.831.80.0269 11258.09.08.50.0072115048.050.049.00.0414 11005.15.95.50.0046112568.369.568.90.0582 10753.34.13.70.0031110090.292.291.20.0770 10502.23.02.60.0022500682.1684.1683.10.5771 10251.552.051.80.0015 Strike($)=optionstrikeprice,Bid($)=optionbidprice,Ask($)=optionaskprice,Price($)=optionprice(averageofbidandaskprices),Rel.Pr=relativeoptionprice 69

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PricingoptionsonS&P500index:100paths StrikeCalc.ActualErr(%)Calc.Vol.(%)Act.Vol.(%)Vol.Err(%) Calloptions1.1190.00020.0003-40.0013.1714.14-6.821.0980.00050.0005-5.2812.8012.92-0.901.0770.00130.001211.5712.7012.402.421.0560.00350.00335.7013.0312.801.781.0350.00790.00773.1513.3813.181.521.0220.01170.0118-0.7513.4313.49-0.481.0140.01560.01541.3213.9113.771.031.0050.01950.01950.0114.0714.060.010.9930.02690.02690.1814.6314.600.230.9710.04160.04140.5015.5715.401.090.9500.05890.05821.1216.8116.134.250.9290.07750.07700.6218.0417.353.940.4220.57890.57710.3369.39N/AN/APutoptions1.2670.26330.2638-0.2022.5029.02-22.441.0980.09560.0960-0.4713.8815.14-8.351.0770.07560.0759-0.3613.7114.18-3.321.0350.04060.04050.3314.2214.110.771.0220.03190.0320-0.2514.2914.35-0.401.0140.02740.02701.2614.7514.511.621.0050.02290.0229-0.0114.8914.90-0.010.9930.01760.01741.3815.4715.301.100.9710.01110.0112-0.5216.4316.47-0.280.9500.00700.0072-1.9517.5817.72-0.790.9290.00450.0046-3.4218.8419.05-1.090.9080.00280.0031-10.0020.0220.57-2.680.8870.00150.0022-32.2720.4622.24-7.990.8660.00110.0015-26.0022.4623.78-5.54 Initialprice=$1183:77,timetoexpiration=49days,risk-freerate=2:3%.Stockpriceismodelledwith100samplepaths.Griddimensions:P=15,N=49. Strike=optionstrikeprice(relative),Calc.=calculatedoptionprice(relative),Actual=actualoptionprice(relative),Err=(Calc:Actual)=Actual,Calc.Vol.=calculatedoptionpriceinvolatilityform,Act.Vol.(%)=actualoptionpriceinvolatilityterms,Vol.Err(%)=(Calc:Vol:Act:Vol:)=Act:Vol:

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PricingoptionsonS&P500index:20paths StrikeCalc.ActualErr(%)Calc.Vol.(%)Act.Vol.(%)Vol.Err(%) Calloptions1.1190.00050.000345.0014.9514.145.781.0980.00100.000588.8014.4812.9212.091.0770.00200.001266.8613.9512.4012.501.0560.00470.003341.8014.3912.8012.381.0350.00920.007719.8414.4313.189.421.0220.01320.011811.4114.4713.497.261.0140.01600.01544.0314.2013.773.131.0050.01950.01950.0014.0614.060.000.9930.02640.0269-1.6614.2814.60-2.150.9710.03930.0414-5.0113.6715.40-11.230.9500.05480.0582-5.7612.0116.13-25.520.9290.07370.0770-4.358.3917.35-51.650.4220.57900.57710.34N/AN/AN/APutoptions1.2670.26330.2638-0.1923.4529.02-19.161.0980.09590.0960-0.1314.8215.14-2.111.0770.07620.07590.4014.6714.183.451.0350.04150.04052.4914.9214.115.721.0220.03320.03203.6915.2014.355.931.0140.02780.02702.7415.0314.513.541.0050.02290.02290.0114.9014.900.010.9930.01680.0174-3.3114.9015.30-2.630.9710.00890.0112-20.7214.5816.47-11.480.9500.00300.0072-58.7312.9917.72-26.730.9290.00000.0046-100.004.3819.05-77.000.9080.00000.0031-100.006.0720.57-70.500.8870.00000.0022-100.007.6822.24-65.480.8660.00000.0015-100.008.9823.78-62.21 Initialprice=$1183:77,timetoexpiration=49days,risk-freerate=2:3%.Stockpriceismodelledwith20samplepaths.Griddimensions:P=15,N=49. Strike=optionstrikeprice(relative),Calc.=calculatedoptionprice(relative),Actual=actualoptionprice(relative),Err=(Calc:Actual)=Actual,Calc.Vol.=calculatedoptionpriceinvolatilityform,Act.Vol.(%)=actualoptionpriceinvolatilityterms,Vol.Err(%)=(Calc:Vol:Act:Vol:)=Act:Vol:

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SummaryofcashowdistributionsforobitainedhedgingstrategiespresentedonFigures 3.6 3.6 3.6 ,and 3.6 TotalnancingRe-bal.cashowTotalnancingRe-bal.cashow Black-ScholesCallSPXCallmean0.00.00.00.0st.dev.0.62740.044916.15491.2730median0.0770-0.00080.2695-0.0314 Totalnancing($)=thesumofdiscountedinows/outowsofmoneyonapath;Re-bal.cashow($)=discountedinow/outowofmoneyonre-balancingpoints. Black-ScholesCall:Initialprice=$62,strike=$62,timetoexpiration=70,risk-freerate=10%,volatility=20%.Stockpriceismodelledwith200Monte-Carlosamplepaths. SPXCall:Initialprice=$1183:77,strikeprice=$1190,timetoexpiration=49days,risk-freerate=2:3%.Stockpriceismodelledwith100samplepaths. Table3-6. Calculationtimesofthepricingalgorithm. #ofpathsPNBuildingtime(sec)CPLEXtime(sec)Totaltime(sec) 2020490.88.29.010025491.612.614.220025705.531.737.2 CalculationsaredoneusingCPLEX9.0onPentium4,1.7GHz,1GBRAM. #ofpaths=numberofsample-paths,P=verticalsizeofthegrid,N=horizontalsizeofthegrid,Buildingtime=timeofbuildingthemodel(preprocessingtime),CPLEXtime=timeofsolvingoptimizationproblem,Totaltime=totaltimeofpricingoneoption. Table3-7. Numericalvaluesofinexionpointsofthestockpositionasafunctionofthestockpriceforsomeoptions. Expir.(days)Strike($)Inexion($)Error(%) 06260.1263.02356261.0561.52696261.9750.0405452.3683.02355453.1781.52695453.9740.0507168.8553.02357169.9191.52697170.9670.05 Expir.(days)=timetoexpiration,Strike($)=strikepriceoftheoption,Inexion($)=inexionpoint,Error(%)=(Strike-Inexion)/Strike. 72

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Oneofthealternativestothemean-varianceapproachistheOmegafunction,recentlyintroducedinShadwickandKeating(2002).Omegafunctionr(rh)istheratiooftheupperandthelowerpartialmomentsofanassetrateofreturnragainstthebenchmarkrateofreturnrh.Theupperpartialmomentistheexpectedoutperformanceofanassetoverabenchmark;lowerpartialmomentistheexpectedunderperformanceofanassetwithrespecttothebenchmark.TheOmegafunctionhasseveralattractivefeatureswhichmadeitapopulartoolinriskmeasurement.First,ittakesthewholedistributionintoaccount.Asinglevaluer(rh)containstheimpactofallmomentsofthedistribution.Acollectionofr(rh)forallpossiblerhfullydescribesthereturndistribution.Second, 73

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ThechoiceoftheOmega-optimalportfoliowithrespecttoaxedbenchmarkwithlinearconstraintsonportfolioweightsleadstoanon-linearoptimizationproblem.Severalapproachestosolvingthisproblemhasbeenproposed,amongwhicharetheglobaloptimizationapproachinAvouyi-Govietal.(2004)andparametricapproachemployingthefamilyofJohnsondistributionsinPassow(2005).Mausseretal.(2006)proposesreductionoftheOmegamaximizationproblemtolinearproblemusingchangeofvariables.ThesuggestedreductionispossibleiftheOmegafunctionisgreaterthan1atoptimality,severalnon-linearmethodsaresuggestedotherwise. ThispaperinvestigatesreductionoftheOmega-basedportfoliooptimizationproblemwithxedbenchmarktolinearprogramming.WeconsideramoregeneralproblemthanMausseretal.(2006)byallowingshortpositionsinportfolioinstrumentsandconsideringconstraintsofthetypeh(x)0withthepositivelyhomogeneousfunctionh(),insteadoflinearconstraintsinMausseretal.(2006).WeprovethattheOmega-maximizingproblemcanbereducedtotwodierentproblems.Therstproblemhastheexpectedgainasanobjective,andhasaconstraintonthelowpartialmoment.Secondproblemhasthelowpartialmomentasanobjectiveandaconstraintontheexpectedgain.IftheOmegafunctionisgreaterthan1atoptimality,theOmegamaximizationproblemcanbereducedlinearprogrammingproblem.IftheOmegafunctionislowerthan1atoptimality,theproposedreductionmethodsleadtotheproblemeitherofmaximizingaconvexfunction,orwithlinearobjectiveandanon-convexconstraint. 74

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4.2.1DenitionofOmegaFunction Letxibetheexposureininstrumentiintheportfolio;thecorrespondingweightsarewi=xi=PNi=1xi,i=1;:::;N. ThelossfunctionmeasuringunderperformanceoftheportfoliowithrespecttothehurdlerateattimetisdenedbyL(t;x)=NXi=1(rhrti)xi:

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TheOmegafunctionistheratioofthetwopartialmoments(x)=(x) 76

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ItisnotnecessaryforvariablesinproblemP0tobeweights.Notethatthefunction(x)isinvarianttoscalingitsargument,since(x)=1+q(x) foranyfeasiblexand>0.Moreover,ifconstraintshk(x)0,k=1;:::;Kholdforsomex,theyalsoholdforx,>0. ConsiderthefollowingalternativetoP0.(P00)max(x)=1+q(x)

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Conversely,supposexistheoptimalsolutiontoP00.ThentheobjectivefunctioninP0areboundedfromaboveby(x).Take=(PIi=1xi)1,thenxisfeasiblepointinP0,and(x)=(x),thereforew=xistheoptimalsolutiontoP0. EquivalenceofproblemsP1andP2isdenotedbyP1()P2. 78

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and(P1)maxKTD1q(x): and(Pq1)maxKTDq1(x): 79

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maxq(w)s.t.hk(w)0;k=1;:::;K;PIi=1wi=1;wi2R;i=1;:::;I:(4{1) Ifq(x)>0atoptimalityin( 4{1 ),thenproblemP0canbereducedtoP1(orPq1),otherwiseitcanbereducedtoP1(orPq1).Thealternativetosolving( 4{1 ),onecouldsolve maxq(x)s.t.hk(x)0;k=1;:::;K;PIi=1xi0;xi2R;i=1;:::;I;(4{2) wherethevariablesarenotrestrictedtobeweights.Ifq(x)>0atoptimalityin( 4{2 ),thenq(x)>0for=1=(PNi=1xi),wherexisafeasiblepointinP0.Ifq(x)0in( 4{2 ),thenq(x)0forallfeasiblepointsin( 4{1 ),sincethefeasibleregionin( 4{2 )containsthefeasibleregionin( 4{1 ). AnotherprescriptiontodetermineifDq+TKw=?istosolveP1rst.IfDq+TKw6=0,thenthereductiontoP1iscorrect,andq(x)>0(or(x)>1)atoptimality.IfDq+TKw=0,thenproblemP1hasnosolutionorhavetheoptimalobjectivevalueequaltozero.Toseethis,notethatifDq=0TKw6=?,thenthereexistsapointxsuchthatq(x)=0and(x)=1,thereforetheobjectiveinP1isequaltozeroatoptimality.IfDq=0TKw=?,thenq(x)<0foranyx2Dq.However, 80

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Alternatively,theproblemPq1canbeattempted.IfDq+TKw6=?,thenthesolutiontoPq1afternormalizinggivesthesolutiontoP0.IfDq+TKw=?,theproblemPq1isinfeasible,duetotheconstraintq(x)1. IfKwTD=0=?,feasiblesetsinbothproblemsP0andP1areboundedandclosed,andobjectivefunctionarecontinuous,thereforebothproblemshavenite 81

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(20)LetxbesolutiontomaxDq+(x),xbesolutiontomaxDq+TD=1(x). ThenmaxDq+TD=1(x)(x).Take=1=(x),then(x)=1and(x)=(x),sox=x. (30)maxDq+TD=10B@1+q(x) 11CA=1+maxDq+TD=1q(x). (40)SupposethatxisthesolutiontomaxDq+TD1q(x)and(x)<1.Take=1=(x)>1.Then(x)=1,q(x)=q(x)>q(x),whichisacontradiction.Therefore,(x)=1atoptimalityinproblemP1,andtheequivalence(40)isjustied. NowconsiderthecaseDq+TKw=?.Denitionsoffunctionsq(x)and(x)implythatDqTD=0=?,so(x)>0foranyx2Kw.Bythesameargumentasabove,bothproblemsP0andP1havenitesolutions,andP0$P00. First,considerthecasewhenDq=0TKw6=?.Inthiscase,theoptimalsolutionxtoP0gives(x)=1,andq(x)=0,(x)>0.Taking=1=(x),yieldsq(x)=0,(x)=1,soxxistheoptimalsolutiontoP1,andq(x)=0. IfDq=0TKw=?,thenq(x)<0forallx2Dq.ThefollowingsequenceofreductionsleadstotheproblemP1.P00=maxDq(x)(100)$maxDqTD=1(x)(200),maxDqTD=1q(x)(300),maxDqTD1q(x)=P1: 82

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1 .ConsiderproblemPq1.Take^x2D=0TKw,thenq(^x)>0,(^x)=0.Taking^=1=q(^x),wehaveq(^^x)=1,(^^x)=0.Since(x)0forallx,theoptimalobjectivevalueinproblemPq1iszero. IfDq+TKw6=?andD=0TKw=?,thenproblemP0canbereducedtoproblemP00,aswasshownintheproofofTheorem 1 .ThefollowingsequenceofreductionstransformstheproblemP00intoPq1.P00=maxK(x)(10),maxDq+(x)(20)$maxDq+TDq=1(x)(30),minDq+TDq=1(x)(40),minDq+TDq1(x)=Pq1: 1 (20)LetxbesolutiontomaxDq+(x),xbesolutiontomaxDq+TDq=1(x). ThenmaxDq+TDq=1(x)(x).Take=1=q(x),thenq(x)=1and(x)=(x),sox=x. (30)maxDq+TDq=10B@1+q(x) minDq+TDq=1(x). 83

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NowconsiderthecaseDq+TKw=?andDq=0TKw6=?.Take^x2Dq=0TKw.FromtheassumptionA1,itfollowsthat(^x)>0.SincemaxKw(x)0and(^x)=0,weconcludethattheoptimalobjectivevalueinproblemP0iszero.AsforproblemPq1,pointsoftheform^xfor>0areallfeasible,and(x)!+1as!+1,soproblemPq1isunbounded. IfDq+TKw=?andDq=0TKw=?,thenthefeasibleregionofproblemP0isclosedandbounded,andtheobjectivefunctioniscontinuous,therefore,problemP0hasasolution.AccordingtoLemma 1 ,P0canbereducedtoP00.Considerthefollowingsequenceofreductions.P00=maxDq(x)(100)$maxDqTDq=1(x)(200),maxDqTDq=1(x)(300),maxDqTDq1q(x)=Pq1: ThenmaxDqTDq=1(x)(x).Take=1=q(x)>0,thenq(x)=1and(x)=(x),sox=x. (00)maxDqTDq=10B@1+q(x) maxDqTDq=1(x). (300)SupposethatxisthesolutiontomaxDqTDq1(x)andq(x)>1.Take=1=q(x)>1.Thenq(x)=1,(x)=(x)>(x),whichisacontradiction.Therefore,q(x)=1atoptimalityinproblemPq1,andtheequivalence(300)isjustied. 84

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canbewrittenintheform( 4{3 )bytakingh(x)=bNXi=1xiAx Inthissubsection,wediscussapplicationofTheorems1and2toproblemswithlinearconstraints.InthecasewhenDq+TKw6=?(alternatively,(x)>1atoptimality),theproblemP0canbereducedtoP1orPq1.InproblemP1,theconstraint(x)1canbereducedtolinearprogramming.Recallthat(x)=1 TheproblemPq1cansimilarlybereducedtolinearprogramming.Theminimizationoftheconvexfunction(x)canbereducedtomaximizationofPTt=1ztwithadditionalconstraintsztL(t;x);zt0,t=1;:::;T. If(x)1atoptimality,theproblemP0isreducedtoP1orPq1.Bothoftheseproblemscannotbereducedtolinearprogrammingduetothepresenceoftheconstraint(x)1inP1ormaximizationoftheconvexobjective(x)inPq1. 85

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max(w)=1+q(w) TheconstraintPIi=1xi=1allowstorewritethesetofconstraintsblmXj2Jmxjbum;m=1;:::;M; inthefollowingformblmIXi=1xiXj2JmxjbumIXi=1xi;m=1;:::;M; Foranyxsatisfying( 4{7 )-( 4{8 ),xfor>0willalsosatisfy( 4{7 )-( 4{8 ).Therefore,constraints( 4{7 )-( 4{8 )arespecialcaseoftheconstraintsoftype( 4{3 ). AccordingtoTheorem1,theproblem( 4{4 )canbereducedtothefollowingproblem. 86

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wherethelossconstraintis(x)1ifq(x)>0((x)>1)atleastatonefeasiblepointoftheproblem( 4{4 ),and(x)1otherwise. Wesolvetheaboveproblemwiththeconstraint(x)1byreducingittothefollowinglinearprogrammingprogram.Inthecasestudydescribedbelowthesolutiongives(x)>1atoptimality,implyingthatthereductiontoLPisvalid.ThefollowingLPformulationusesexplicitexpressionsoffunctionsq(x)and(x). maxPTt=1PIi=1(rhrit)xis.t.PTt=1zt1;ztPIi=1(rhrit)xi;t=1;:::;T;blmPIi=1xiPj2JmxjbumPIi=1xi;m=1;:::;MliPIi=1xixiuiPIi=1xi;(whereli>),i=1;:::;Izt0;t=1;:::;T:xi2R;i=1;:::;I:(4{10) Wesolvetheallocationproblem 4{10 foraportfolioconsistingof10strategies.WeusedhistoricaldailyratesofreturnforthefundsfromOctober1,2003,toMarch17,2006.Thedailyhurdlerateissettorh=0:00045.Theoptimalsolutionxto( 4{10 )gives(x)=1:164>1,whichindicatesthatthereductionof( 4{4 )to( 4{10 )iscorrect.Thesolutionto( 4{4 )isobtainedbynormalizingthesolutionx.TheoptimalallocationisgivenintheTable 4-1 87

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Optimalallocation StrategyAllocation(%) Manager110.00Manager220.00Manager37.50Manager42.22Manager50.00Manager67.50Manager70.00Manager812.78Manager920.00Manager1020.00 88

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ThispapermakesaconnectionbetweenthegeneralportfoliotheoryandtheclassicalassetpricingtheorybyexaminationofgeneralizedCAPMrelations.Inparticular,wederivediscountfactors,correspondingtotheCAPM-likerelationsandconsiderpricingformsofgeneralizedCAPMrelations.Weproposeamethodofcalibratingdeviationmeasuresfrommarketdataanddiscusswaysofidentifyingriskpreferencesofinvestorsinthemarketwithintheframeworkofthegeneralportfoliotheory. 89

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Investorssolvethefollowingportfoliooptimizationproblem. minD(x0r0+x1r1+:::+xnrn) (5{1) s.t.E(x0r0+x1r1+:::+xnrn)r0+x0+x1+:::+xn=1xi2R;i=0;:::;n: 5{1 )hasthreedierenttypesofsolutiondependingonthemagnitudeoftherisk-freerate,correspondingtocasesofthemasterfundofpositivetype,themasterfundofnegativetype,andthemasterfundofthresholdtype.Masterfundofpositivetypeistheonemostcommonlyobservedinthemarket,whenreturnofthemarketportfolioisgreaterthantheriskfreerate,andinvestorswouldtakelongpositionsinthemasterfundwhenformingtheirportfolios. Inthispaper,weconsiderthecaseofmasterfundsofpositivetypeandthecorrespondingCAPM-relations 90

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5{2 )closelyresembletheclassicalCAPMformula.However,generalizedCAPMrelationscannotplaythesameroleinthegeneralportfolioframeworkasCAPMformulaplaysintheclassicaltheory,asdiscussedinRockafellaretal.(2005b).ThegroupofinvestorsusingthedeviationmeasureDisviewedonlyasasubgroupofalltheinvestors.generalizedCAPMrelationsdonotnecessarilyrepresentthemarketequilibrium,astheclassicalCAPMformuladoes,andthereforecannotbereadilyusedasatoolforassetpricing.Anotherdicultywithusingrelations( 5{2 )forassetpricingisthatneitherthemasterfundnortheassetbetaforaxedmasterfundcanbeuniquelydetermined. ForthepricingusingthegeneralizedCAPMrelationstomakesense,wemakethefollowingassumptions. (A1)AllinvestorsintheconsideredeconomyusethesamedeviationmeasureD. (A2)Themasterfundcanbeidentiedinthemarket(orsomeproxyforthemasterfundexists).Ifthesetofriskidentiersforthemasterfundisnotasingleton,thechoiceofaparticularriskidentierfromthissethasnegligibleeectonassetpricesobtainedthoughthegeneralizedCAPMrelations.Therefore,wecanxaparticularriskidentierforthepurposeofassetpricing. AssumptionA2makessensebecauseformostbasicdeviationmeasuresmembersoftheriskidentiersetQD(rDM)foragivenmasterfundrDMdieronasetoftheformfrDM=Cg,whereCisaconstant.FordeviationmeasuresconsideredinRockafellaretal.(2006),theriskidentiersetforstandarddeviationandsemideviationsisasingleton;C=VaR(X)forCVaR-deviationwithcondencelevel;C=ErDMformeanabsolutedeviationandsemideviations.SinceassetpricesingeneralizedCAPM( 5{2 )dependontheriskidentierQDMthough(ri;QDM),assumptionA2suggeststhatProbfrDM=Cg=0. 91

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AssumptionA2cannotbesatisedforworst-casedeviationandsemideviations,seeRockafellaretal.(2006) UnderassumptionsA1andA2,allquantitiesingeneralizedCAPMrelationsarexedandwell-dened,andtherelationsrepresentpricingequilibrium.InfurtherchapterswewillcloselyexaminegeneralizedCAPMrelationsundertheseassumptions. 5.2.1TwoWaystoAccountForRisk 1+r0E[];(5{3) wherer0isarisk-freerateofreturn.Thepriceofanassetisthediscountedexpectedvalueofitsfuturepayo.Theassetwithrandompayowouldhavethesamepriceasanassetwithpays^=E[]withprobability1inthefuture. Iftheriskispresent,thepriceofanassetpaying^withcertaintyinfuturewould,generallyspeaking,dierfromthepriceoftheassethavingrandompayo,suchthatE[]=^.Theformula( 5{3 )needstobecorrectedforrisk.Therearetwowaystodoit. Therstwayistomodifythediscountedquantity: 1+r0(asset);(5{4) where(asset)iscalledthecertaintyequivalent.Itisafunctionofassetparametersandisequaltothepayoofarisk-freeassethavingthesamepriceastheriskyassetwithpayo. 92

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1+rra(asset)E[];rra(asset)6=1:(5{5) whererra(asset)istherisk-adjustedrateofreturn. PricingformsoftheclassicalCAPM(see,forexample,Luenberger(1998))areasfollows. CertaintyequivalentformofCAPM: 1+r0E[]cov(;rM)(ErMr0) Risk-adjustedformofCAPM: 1+r0+(ErMr0)E[]:(5{7) Hereassetbeta=cov(r;rM) Relevanttofurtherdiscussion,thereisameasureofassetqualityknownastheShapreRatioS=E[r]r0 5{2 ),weget 93

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1+r00B@Ei+ErDMr0 Pricingformula( 5{8 )thecertaintyequivalentpricingformofgeneralizedCAPMrelations( 5{2 )(compareitto( 5{4 )),wherethecertaintyequivalent (i)=Ei+ErDMr0 isthepayoofarisk-freeassethavingthesamepricei. Wecouldrearrangetheformula( 5{2 )inadierentway,namely whenErDMr0

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5{10 )istherisk-adjustedpricingformofgeneralizedCAPMrelations( 5{2 )(comparewith( 5{10 )),wheretherisk-adjustedrateofreturnis ThequantityErDMr0 5{8 )and( 5{10 )isthegeneralizedSharpeRatioforthemasterfund.Itshowswhatincreaseinexcessreturncanbeobtainedbyincreasingthedeviationoftheassetby1.Intheclassicalportfoliotheory,masterfundhasthehighestSharpeRatioamongallassets.Thesameresultholdsinthegeneralizedsettingasweshownext. forsomeasseti>0.ThegeneralizedSharpeRatioforthemasterfundisstrictlypositiveSDM=ErDMr0 Ifcov(ri;QDM)=0,thenEri=r0,thereforeErir0 5{12 )holds. Ifcov(ri;QDM)<0,thenEri0,thenaccordingtothedualrepresentationofD(ri),wehaveD(ri)=maxQ2Qcov(ri;Q)cov(ri;QDM)>0;

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5{8 )and( 5{10 )implythattheriskadjustmentisdeterminedbythecorrelationoftheassetrateofreturnwiththeriskidentierofthemasterfund. Togainabetterintuitionaboutthemeaningofthisformofriskadjustment,wecomparetheclassicalCAPMformulawiththegeneralizedCAPMrelationsfortheCVaR-deviationD(X)=CVaR(X)CVaR(XEX). Firstnote,thatmorevaluableassetsarethosewithlowerreturns.Whenpricingtwoassetswiththesameexpectedreturn,investorswillpayhigherpriceforamorevaluableasset,thereforeitsreturnwillbelowerthanthatofthelessvaluableasset. WebeginbyanalyzingtheclassicalCAPMformulawrittenintheform wheretheleft-handsideoftheequationistheassetreturn.Thereturnisgovernedbythecorrelationoftheassetrateofreturnwiththemarketportfoliorateofreturn,i.e.bythequantitycov(ri;rM).Assetswithhigherreturncorrelationwiththemarketportfoliohavehigherexpectedreturns,andviceversa.Formula( 5{14 )impliesthatassetswithlowercorrelationwiththemarketaremorevaluable.Thereisthefollowingintuitionbehindthisresult.Investorsholdthemarketportfolioandtherisk-freeasset;theproportionsofholdingsdependonthetargetexpectedportfolioreturn.Theonlysourceofriskofsuchinvestmentsisintroducedbytheperformanceofthemarketportfolio.Themostundesirablestatesoffuturearethosewheremarketportfolioreturnsarelow.Theassetswithhigherpayoinsuchstateswouldbemorevalued,sincetheyserveasinsuranceagainstpoorperformanceofthemarketportfolio.Therefore,thelowerthecorrelationof 96

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NowconsiderthecaseofCVaR-deviation,D(X)=CVaR(XEX).Investorsmeasuringuncertaintyoftheportfolioperformancebythisdeviationmeasureareconcernedaboutthevalueoftheaverageofthe%worstreturnsrelativetothemeanofthereturndistribution. WeconsidergeneralizedCAPMrelationsfortheCVaR-deviationinthecaseofthemasterfundofpositivetype. wherei=cov(ri;QDM) IfprobfrDM=VaR(rDM)g=0,then Forfurtherdiscussion,assume=10%.Thenthenumeratorof( 5{16 )istheexpectedunderperformanceoftheassetrateofreturnwithrespecttoitsaveragerateofreturn,conditionalonthemasterfundbeinginits10%lowestvalues.Thedenominatorof( 5{16 )isthethesamequantityforthemasterfund.Aninvestorholdsthemasterfundandtherisk-freeassetinhisportfolio.Theportfolioriskisintroducedbytheperformanceofthemasterfund.Formula( 5{16 )suggeststhatassetsarevaluedbasedontheirrelativeperformanceversusthemasterfundperformanceinthosefuturestateswherethemaster 97

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Fromthegeneralportfoliotheorypointofview,thevalueoftheassetis,therefore,determinedbytheextenttowhichthisassetprovidesprotectionagainstpoormasterfundperformance.Dependingonthespecicformofthedeviationmeasure,theneedforthisprotectioncorrespondstodierentpartsofthereturndistributionofthemasterfund.Mostvaluableassetsdrasticallydierinperformancefromthemasterfundinthosecaseswhenprotectionisneededthemost. 5.3.1BasicFactsfromAssetPricingTheory. Thediscountfactorisoffundamentalimportancetoassetpricing.Below,wepresenttwotheoremsduetoRoss(1978),andHarrisonandKreps(1979)whichemphasizeconnectionsbetweenthediscountfactorandassumptionsofabsenceofarbitrageandlinearityofpricing.Inthenarration,wefollowCochrane(2001),Chapter4. LetX Wewillconsidertwoassumptions,theportfolioformationassumption(A1)andthelawofonepriceassumption(A2). (A1)If02X LetPrice()bethepriceofpayo. 98

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Underassumption(A1),thepayospaceX Fromtheperspectiveofdiscountfactors,acompletemarketischaracterizedbyauniquediscountfactor;inanincompletemarketthereexistsaninnitenumberofdiscountfactorsandeachdiscountfactorproducesthesamepricesofallassetswithpayosinX 5{17 ).Moredetailsonpricingassetsincompeteandincompletemarketswillbeprovidedlateron.Importantimplicationsofthesetheoremsareasfollows. 99

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5{17 )asfollows. 1+r0Z(!)dQ(!);(5{18) wheredQ(!)=(1+r0)m(!)dP(!).Sinceexpectationof(1+r0)mequalstoone 5{17 )is=1 1+r0EQ[]; Ifonepicksadiscountfactorm,whichisnotstrictlypositive,thetransformation( 5{18 )willleadtothepricingequation=R(!)dQ(!)thatcorrectlypricesallassetswithpayosinX 5{17 )totherisk-freerategives1=E[m(1+r0)]. 100

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Inacompletemarket,thepayoofanynewassetliesinX Inanincompletemarket,twocasesarepossible.(1)ThepayoofanewassetbelongstoX new])ofthisassetcanbedenedasfollows. where=fmjm(!)>0withprobability1g:Includingonlystrictlypositivediscountfactorstothesetleadstoarbitrage-freepricesgivenbyformula=E[m]. 101

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1+r0Ei+ErDMr0 1+r0Ei(QDM1)ErDMr0 1+r0(QDM(!)1)ErDMr0 wearriveatthepricingformulaintheform( 5{17 ) ThediscountfactorcorrespondingtothedeviationmeasureDisgivenby( 5{21 ).Pricingformulas( 5{22 )correspondingtodierentdeviationmeasuresDwillyieldthesamepricesforassetsri,i=0;:::;n;andtheircombinations(denedbyportfolioformationassumptionA1),butwillproducedierentpricesofnewassets,whosepayoscannotbereplicatedbypayosofexistingn+1assets.EachdeviationmeasureDhasthecorrespondingdiscountfactormD,whichisusedin( 5{22 )todetermineauniquepriceofanewasset.Aninvestorhasriskrelatedtoimperfectreplicationofthepayoofanewasset,andspecieshisriskpreferencesbychoosingadeviationmeasureinpricingformula( 5{22 ). 102

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X .ItfollowsthatdiscountfactormDforanyDcanberepresentedasmD=m+"D,wherem2 istheprojectionofalldiscountfactorsmDonthepayospace X ,and"Disorthogonalto X .Wecallmpricinggeneratorforthegeneralportfoliotheory. ThepricinggeneratormcoincideswiththediscountfactorforthestandarddeviationD=,since 1+r01rM(!)ErM togetherwithrM2 implym2X Foragivenpayospace X ,discountfactorsmDforallDformasubsetofalldiscountfactorscorrespondingto X ThestrictpositivityconditionmD(!)>0(a.s.)canbewrittenas 1+r0(QDM(!)1)ErDMr0 Notethattheleft-handsideofcondition( 5{24 )containsarandomvariable,whiletheright-handsideisaconstant,andtheinequalitybetweenthemshouldbesatisedwithprobabilityone.ScalingthedeviationmeasureDbysome>0willchangethevalueoftheleft-handside.Weshownextthatitdoesnotchangemeaningofthecondition( 5{24 ). 5{24 )isinvariantwithrespecttore-scalingdeviationmeasureD.

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5{24 )canbeexpressedas whereSDM=D(rDM) Sincetheriskenvelopes^QandQfordeviationmeasures^DandDarerelatedas^Q=(1)+Q; 5{25 )holdsforD,itholdsforDaswell,since^Q^DM(!)11 ^S^DM(1)+QDM(!)1 SDMQDM(!) SDMQDM(!)11

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ConsideranalternativerepresentationofmD(!)in( 5{21 ).LettingSDM=ErDMr0 1+r0(QDM(!)1)SDM+1=1 1+r0(QDM(!)SDM+(1SDM):(5{26) InLemma1weshowedthatriskidentiers^Q(rDM)andQ(rDM)fordeviationmeasures^D=D(>0)andD,respectively,arerelatedas^Q(rDM)=(1)+Q(rDM): 1+r0QDMM(!); 105

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5.4.1IdenticationofRiskPreferencesofMarketParticipants providethemostaccurateassetpricing.WecouldeithertakeasetofassetreturnsrifromthemarketandestimatethemasterfundrDM,ortreatthemasterfundasgivenbythemarketandestimateexpectedreturnsEri.Theobtainedquantities,themasterfundreturnorexpectedreturnsoftheassets,willdependonthedeviationmeasureD,whichcanbecalibratedbycomparingestimatedquantitiestotheirmarketvalues. Welimitourconsiderationtothecaseofknownmasterfund;themethodbasedonestimationofamasterfundgivenasetofassetsismorecomputationallydicult,becausethegeneralizedportfolioproblemshouldbesolvedforeachchoiceofD. Assumptionthatamasterfundcanbeobtainedfromthemarketisjustiedbytheexistenceofindices,suchasS&P500,DowJonesIndustrialAverageandNasdaq100,whichrepresentthestateofsomelargepartofthemarket;moreover,investingintheseindicescanbethoughtofasinvestinginthemarket. Anybroad-basedmarketindexisassociatedwithcertainselectionofassets;theindexsummarizesthebehaviorofthemarketoftheseassets.Wecouldcalibratethegeneralized 106

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Therstcalibrationmethodisbasedonpricingassetsfromtheindexpool.Theindexserveasamasterfundinageneralizedportfolioproblemposedforassetsfromthepool.Givenaxedselectionofassets,dierentdeviationmeasureswouldproducedierentmasterfunds.Theexistenceofaparticularmasterfundfortheseassetsinthemarketcan,therefore,beusedasabasisforestimationofadeviationmeasure.The\best"deviationmeasureistheonewhichyieldsthebestmatchbetweentheexpectedreturnsofassetsfromthepoolandtheindexreturnthroughthegeneralizedCAPMrelations. Thesecondcalibrationmethodisbasedonpricingassetslyingoutsideoftheindexpool.Aswediscussedearlier,whenpricinganewassetwhosepayodoesnotbelongtotheinitiallyconsideredpayospace,thepriceinvestorswouldpaydependsontheirriskpreferences,denedbythedeviationmeasure.Thesecondmethod,therefore,usespricesof\new"assetswithrespecttotheindexpoolasthebasisforestimationofriskpreferences.Itshouldbenotedthatinthesetupofthegeneralportfoliotheorytheselectionofassetsisxed,andthemasterfunddependsonthedeviationmeasure.Inthepresentmethodweassumethatthemasterfundisxedandchangethedeviationmeasuretoobtainthebestmatchbetweenthemasterfundreturnandexpectedreturnsofnewassets.Bydoingso,weimplythatthechoiceoftheindex-associatedpoolofassetsdependsonthedeviationmeasure. Wejustifytheassumptionofaxedmasterfundbytheobservationthatmasterfunds,expectedreturnsofassets,andtheirgeneralizedbetascanbedeterminedfromthemarketdataquiteeasily,whiletheselectionofassetscorrespondingtoanindexcanbedeterminedmuchmoreapproximately.Anindexusuallyrepresentsbehaviorofapartofthemarketconsistingofmuchmoreinstrumentsthattheindexiscomprisedof.Withmuchcertainty,though,wecouldassumethatassetsconstitutingtheindexbelongtothe 107

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Wealsonotethatimplementationsofbothmethodsarethesame:selectingsomeindexasamasterfund,weadjustthedeviationmeasureuntilthegeneralizedCAPMrelationsprovidemostaccuratepricingofacertaingroupofassets.Werefertothisgroupofassetsasthetargetgroup. Finally,wediscussthequestion,shouldthetwocalibrationmethodsgivethesameresults.Generallyspeaking,foraxedsetofassets,thechoiceofriskpreferencesintermsofadeviationmeasuredeterminesboththemasterfundandpricingofnewassetswithpayosoutsideoftheconsideredpayospace.Whenthegeneralizedportfolioproblemisposedforthewholemarket,riskpreferencescanbedeterminedonlythroughmatchingthemasterfund,sincethereareno\new"assetswithrespecttothewholemarket.Themasterfundcoincideswiththemarketportfolio,i.e.weightofanassetinthemasterfundequalsthecapitalizationweightofthisassetinthemarket. Ifacertainindexisassumedtorepresentthewholemarket,thencalibrationofthedeviationmeasurebasedondierenttargetgroupsofassets(forexample,onagroupofstocksandagroupofderivativesonthesestocks)shouldgivethesameresult.Iftheobtainedriskpreferencesdonotagree,thismayindicatethateitherthegeneralportfoliotheorywithasingledeviationmeasureisnotapplicabletothemarketorthattheindexdoesnotadequatelyrepresentthemarket. Ifindicestrackperformanceofsomepartsofthemarket,thetwomethodsarenot,generallyspeaking,expectedtogivethesameresults.Marketpricesofassetsnotbelongingtoanindexgroupmaynotbedirectlyinuencedbyriskpreferencesofinvestorsholdingtheindexintheirportfolios.Forexample,itdoesnotmakesensetocalibrateriskpreferencesbytakingoneindexasamasterfundandassetsfromanotherindexasatargetsetofassets.However,itisreasonabletosupposethatpricesofderivatives(forexample,options)ontheassetsbelongingtoanindexgroupareformedbyrisk 108

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Forthepurposesofcalibration,weassumeaparametrizationofadeviationmeasureD=D,where=(1;:::;l)isavectorofparameters. 109

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AssumethattheprobabilitymeasurePinthemarkethasadensityfunctionp(!).WeconsiderthegeneralizedCAPMrelationsintheform( 5{22 )andtransformthemasfollows(denotesthecompletesetoffutureevents!). 1+r0Z(!)(1+r0)mD(!)p(!)d!;(5{28) 110

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weget 1+r0Z(!)qD(!)d!:(5{30) Aswediscussedabove,ifthediscountfactormD(!)isstrictlypositive,thefunctionqD(!)couldbecalledthe\risk-neutral"densityfunction. Thefutureevent!consistsoffuturereturnsofallassetsinthemarketandcanberepresentedas!=(rDM;r01;:::;r0k;r),whererrepresentsratesofreturnsoftherestofassetsinthemarket. 5{29 )withrespecttor01;:::;r0k;r. Let~qD(rDM)=ZqD(rDM;r01;:::;r0k;r)dr01:::dr0kdr: 5{31 ),notethatthediscountfactormDisalineartransformationoftheriskidentierQDM(bothmDandQDMarerandomvariablesandarefunctionof!).DuetotherepresentationQDM2QDM=argminQ2QE[rDMQ]; 111

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Equation( 5{31 )becomes ~qD(rDM)=(1+r0)RmD(rDM)p(rDM;r01;:::;r0k;r)dr01:::dr0kdr;~qD(rDM)=(1+r0)mD(rDM)Rp(rDM;r01;:::;r0k;r)dr01:::dr0kdr;~qD(rDM)=(1+r0)m(rDM)~p(rDM); where~p(rDM)=Rp(rDM;r01;:::;r0k;r)dr01:::dr0kdristheactualmarginaldistributionofthemasterfund. Relationship( 5{29 )isnowtransformedinto ~qD(rDM)=(1+r0)mD(rDM)~p(rDM);(5{33) whererDM=rDM(!).ThisrelationshipprovidethebasisforcalibrationofD.Let~q(rDM)denotethetruerisk-neutraldistributionofthemasterfund.Bothfunctions~q(rDM)and~p(rDM)canbeestimatedfrommarketdata;theerrorinestimationof~q(rDM)by~qDrDM)in( 5{33 )isminimizedwithrespecttoD. First,weconsiderestimationof~q(rDM).Letq(!)bethetruemarketrisk-neutraldistribution,~q(rDM)=Rq(rDM;r01;:::;r0k;r)dr01:::dr0kdr.Applyingformula( 5{30 )withq(!)forpricinganoptiononthemasterfund,wegetc=1 1+r0Zc(rDM)q(rDM;r01;:::;r0k;r)drDMdr01:::dr0kdr=1 1+r0Zc(rDM)~q(rDM)drDM; 112

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Dierentiating( 5{34 )withrespecttoK,wegeterT@C @K=K~q(K)Z+1K~q(S)dS+K~q(K)=Z+1K~q(S)dS: 5{34 )twicewithrespecttoK,wearriveattheformulaforestimatingrisk-neutraldensityqfromcrosssectionofoptionpriceserT@2C @K2=@ @KZ+1K~q(S)dS=~q(K); ~q(S)=erT@2C @K2K=S:(5{35) Formula( 5{35 )allowstoestimatethefunction~q(rDM)whenthecross-sectionofpricesofoptionswrittenonthemasterfundisavailable.Itisworthmentioningthatthismethodestimates~q(rDM)atagivenpointintime;itisbasedonoptionspricesatthistime. Nowconsiderestimationofthemarginalprobabilitydensity~p(rDM).Themostcommonwaytoestimatethisdensityistousekerneldensityestimationbasedoncertainperiodofhistoricaldata.However,thismethodassumesthatthedensitydoesnotchangeovertime.Whentimedependenceistakenintoaccount,weareleftwithonlyone 113

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However,theformula( 5{32 )providesawayofestimating~p(rDM)foraspecicdate,ifthefunctionmD(rDM)isknown.ThisideaisutilizedintheutilityestimationalgorithmsuggestedinBlissandPanigirtzoglou(2001).Wedevelopamodicationofthismethodtocalibratethedeviationmeasure,asfollows. AssumetheparametrizationD=D.Alsoassumethatthemasterfundisknownfromthemarketandthereforeisxed,itsrateofreturnisdenotedbyrM.Foreachdatet=1;:::;T,weestimatethefunctionmt(rM)using( 5{21 ).QuantitiesD(rM),ErDM,andQDMinthedenitionofmt(rM),arecalculatedbasedonacertainperiodofhistoricalreturnstheindex.Also,weestimatefunctions~qt(rM),t=1;:::;T,using( 5{35 ).Formula( 5{33 )allowstoestimatefunction~qt(rM)foreachparametrizationofD.Theparameterscanbecalibratedbyhypothesizingthat~qt(rM)=~qt(rM)fort=1;:::;T(whichholdsifDisthecorrectdeviationmeasureinthemarket)andmaximizingthep-valueofanappropriatestatistic. Thishypothesisisfurthertransformedasfollows.Usingthetruerisk-neutraldistributions~qt(rM),theactualdistributions~pt(rM)areestimatedusing( 5{33 ),~pt(rM)=~qt(rM) (1+r0)mt(rM);t=1;:::;T.Wethentestthenullhypothesisthatrisk-neutraldistributions~pt(rM),t=1;:::;T,equaltothetruerisk-neutraldistributions~pt(rM),t=1;:::;T. Foreachtimet=1;:::;T,onlyonerealizationrM(t)ofthemasterfundisavailable;thevaluerM(t)isasinglesamplefromthetruedensity~pt(rM).Underthenullhypothesis~pt(rM)=~pt(rM),thereforerandomvariablesytdenedbyyt=ZrM(t)~pt(r)dr; 114

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ImplementationIrequirescalculationexpectedreturnsofassetsandestimationofactualdistributionofthemasterfund.Thesequantitiescanbefoundfromthemarketdataquiteeasilyandaccurately.However,theresultsofthisimplementationdependonaparticularchoiceoftheobjectivefunctionDist(;).ItcanbearguedthatthechoiceoftheobjectiveshoulddependonatheparametrizationDofthedeviationmeasurebeingcalibrated.Forexample,ifthedeviationmeasureiscalibratedintheformofthemixedCVaR-deviation,thenDist(;)shouldbebasedontheCVaR-deviation,ratherthanonthestandarddeviation.AnotherdrawbackofimplementationIisthatthenancialliteraturedidnotusesimilaralgorithmsforcalibrationofutilityfunctions.Whenriskpreferencesareestimatedusingthisimplementationforthegeneralportfoliotheoryarecomparedwithriskpreferencesestimatedinnancialliteraturefortheutilitytheory,theresultsmaydierjustduetodierencesinnumericalprocedures,underlyingthetwoestimations. ImplementationIIiswidelyusedinnancialliteratureforestimationofrisk-aversioncoecientsofutilityfunctions.However,thisimplementationsuersfromsomenumericalchallengesrelatedtoevaluationoftheactualdensityintheformula~pt(rM)=~qt(rM) (1+r0)mt(rM): 115

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Thereisonemoredrawbackofthisimplementationwhenitisinthegeneralportfoliotheory.Whenusingnumericalestimationofrisk-neutraldensities,wehavetoassumethatnoarbitrageopportunitiesexistinthepricesofoptionsfromthecross-section.ThisimpliesthatonlystrictlypositivediscountfactorsmD(rM)shouldbeusedforcalibration.Indeed,ifmD(rM(!))<0withpositiveprobability,thenestimatesoftherisk-neutraldensity~qt(rM)=(1+r0)m(rM)~p(rM)canbenegative,andthehypothesisthatthetruerisk-neutraldensities~qt(rM(!))>0(estimatedfromoptionscross-section)areequaltotheestimateddensities~qt(rM)doesnotmakesense.However,itisnotclearatthispoint,whichdeviationmeasureshavethepropertythatmD(!)>0withprobability1. Finally,thereisanissuerelevanttoestimationofreturndistributionsofassetsbasedontheirhistoricalreturns.Historicaldatamaycontainoutliersoreectsofrarehistoricalevents.Aftersuch\cleaning",historicaldatamayprovidemorereliableconclusions.However,lteringhistoricaldatafromhistoricaleectsisanopenquestion. 116

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(5{36) WewillrefertodeviationmeasureCVaR(XEX)asCVaRdeviationofgains,todeviationmeasureCVaR(X+EX)asCVaRdeviationoflosses. Riskidentierforaconvexcombinationofdeviationmeasuresisaconvexcombinationoftheirriskidentiers.RiskidentierforCVaRdeviationoflosseswasderivedinRockafellaretal.(2006).Below,wederivetheriskidentierforCVaRdeviationoflossesandmixed-CVaRdeviationoflossesandexaminecoherenceofthesedeviationmeasures. Thefollowinglemmawillhelptondrisk-identierforD(X)=CVaR(X+EX). 5{37 )weneedtoprovethedualrepresentation~D(X)=EXinf~Q2~QE[X~Q]andalsoshowthat~Qsatisesproperties(Q1)-(Q3).Thedualrepresentationiscorrectsince,EXinf~Q2~QE[X~Q]=EXinfQ2QE[X(2Q)]=E[X]infQ2QE[XQ]=D(X)=~D(X):

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5{38 ),wewillusetheformula@D(X)=1Q(X)andthefactthat@~D(X)=@D(X):1~Q(X)=@~D(X)=@D(X)=1+Q(X)~Q(X)=2Q(X): 5{38 ),theriskenvelopeforthedeviationmeasure~D(X)=CVaR(X+EX)is 118

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~Q2~Q(X)()8>>>>>><>>>>>>:~Q(!)=21;whenX(!)>VaR(X)21~Q(!)2;whenX(!)=VaR(X)~Q(!)=2;whenX(!)
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whichcontradictswiththeconditionQ0forallQ2Q(~X),asrequiredby( 5{40 ).Thisconcludestheproof. 5{39 )impliesthatthedeviationmeasure~Q(X)=CVaR(X+EX)iscoherentif210,whichisequivalenttohaving1=2: andexamineitscoherence.Theriskidentierforthismeasuregivenby~Q1;:::;n(X)=nXi=1~Qi(X); 120

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2CVaR45%(X+EX)+1 2CVaR(X+EX); 121

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SergeySarykalinwasbornin1982,inVoronezh,Russia.In1999,hecompletedhishighschooleducationinHighSchool#15inVoronezh.Hereceivedhisbachelor'sdegreeinappliedmathematicsandphysicsfromMoscowInstituteofPhysicsandTechnologyinMoscow,Russia,in2003.InAugust2003,hebeganhisdoctoralstudiesintheIndustrialandSystemsEngineeringDepartmentattheUniversityofFlorida.HenishedhisPh.D.inindustrialandsystemsengineeringinDecember2007. 126