Citation
The comparative behavior of three species of swallows (genus Progne)

Material Information

Title:
The comparative behavior of three species of swallows (genus Progne)
Creator:
Bitterbaum, Erik Joshua, 1952- ( Dissertant )
Hardy, John William ( Thesis advisor )
Brockmann, H. Jane ( Reviewer )
Collopy, Michael W. ( Reviewer )
Emmel, Thomas C. ( Reviewer )
Reiskind, Jonathan ( Reviewer )
Place of Publication:
Gainesville, Fla.
Publisher:
University of Florida
Publication Date:
Copyright Date:
1986
Language:
English
Physical Description:
xv, 244 leaves : ill. ; 28 cm.

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Animals ( jstor )
Bird nesting ( jstor )
Birds ( jstor )
Female animals ( jstor )
Head ( jstor )
Plumage ( jstor )
Receivers ( jstor )
Signals ( jstor )
Social evolution ( jstor )
Species ( jstor )
Dissertations, Academic -- Zoology -- UF
Swallows -- Behavior
Zoology thesis, Ph.D.
City of Gainesville ( local )
Genre:
bibliography ( marcgt )
non-fiction ( marcgt )

Notes

Abstract:
The vocal and visual displays of three species of swallows (Genus Progne) are described and analyzed structurally and functionally. I examine the way in which predictions from models based on game theory can help us understand ethological data about agonistic displays. Predictions based on game theory are contrasted with the traditional ethological view that agonistic displays evolved to transmit information about the probability of attack or escape. After a signaler's display, both the signaler's action and the receiver's response are recorded. I conclude that information about attack is poorly encoded in the aggressive displays, and suggest that many agonistic displays may signal that the subsequent behavior of the displaying bird depends in part on that of the receiver. I give evidence that most of these aggressive displays are used in a broad range of situations, suggesting that they encode general messages and that specificity in communication depends largely on contextual information. Social interactions of the swallows I studied are based upon the mechanism of territoriality. Territoriality is associated with defense of a critical resource, which in these birds is a breeding territory. The establishment of territory is associated with age-related plumage characteristics, residency, and aggression. Dominance hierarchies in the swallows studied are linear away from the nest sites and nonlinear at the breeding sites. Thus, the outcome of an encounter between individuals is site-dependent. These findings are discussed in the light of recent theoretical advances in the study of animal threat and fighting behavior.
Thesis:
Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Florida, 1986.
Bibliography:
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 227-243).
General Note:
Vita.
General Note:
Typescript.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Holding Location:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
AEK1881 ( ltuf )
15293455 ( oclc )
0029781524 ( ALEPH )

Downloads

This item has the following downloads:


Full Text













THE COMPARATIVE BEHAVIOR OF THREE
SPECIES OF SWALLOWS (genus Progne)










BY



ERIK JOSHUA BITTERBAUM


A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL
OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN
PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS
FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY



UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA


1986






























This dissertation is dedicated to Dr. John William Hardy,
mentor and friend.
















ACKNOWLEDGMENTS


I extend my thanks to all my friends at the Florida

State Museum for making my stay there such a memorable one.

I also wish to thank my friends in the Department of Zoology

of the University of Florida for their help, especially

Drs. Peter Feinsinger, Martha Crump, John Kaufmann, and

Frank Nordlie. I thank Dr. J.W. Hardy, who suggested the

problem, and for his interest and guidance throughout the

course of this study. I am deeply indebted to Dr. Jane

Brockmann for advice and discussion on the project design

and for her valuable suggestions on the manuscript.

Drs. Thomas Emmel, Michael Collopy, and Jonathan Reiskind

read drafts of the manuscript and offered important

criticisms and comments. Drs. Charles Brown and Jeffrey Cox

accompanied me in the field and provided fruitful discussion

of my material. I am indebted to Drs. Joe Wampler and Bob

Bryan of Nebraska Wesleyan University for their considerable

advice on statistical procedures.

I would like to thank Richard ffrench and his family

for all the courtesies extended to me during my stay at

their home in Trinidad. Special thanks are extended to

Texaco Incorporated for granting me permission to study the

Gray-breasted Martin at their oil refinery in Trinidad. The


iii









field work was made considerably easier by the help and

hospitality of Mr. Richard Rothenberg, Mr. Hector Garcia,

Ms. Sarah Sloane, Ms. Rebecca Dellinger, Dr. Tom Webber,

Dr. James Cohen, and Dr. Eugene Morton. I owe a real debt

to many other friends, too numerous to list, who gave me

their unfailing faith and encouragement in difficult periods

during the research and writing that culminated in this

manuscript.

Financial support was made possible by grants from the

Chapman Memorial Fund of the American Museum of Natural

History, the Florida State Museum, the Department of Zoology

of the University of Florida, the Smithsonian Institution,

and Joseph and Evelyn Bitterbaum. Travel funds were provide

by the Society of the Sigma Xi.

Last, but not least, I wish to thank my wife Ellen H.

Burton. Her patience, encouragement, delightful companion-

ship, and assistance in editing the manuscript made the

completion of this study possible.


















TABLE OF CONTENTS


Page

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS . . . .. iii

LIST OF TABLES . . . . .viii

LIST OF FIGURES . . . .. xi

ABSTRACT . . . . . xvi

INTRODUCTION . . . . . 1

Ritualization . . . . 2
How Signals Originate . . . 4
The Information Hypothesis . . . 9
The Manipulation Hypothesis . . .. 11
The Honesty Hypothesis . . . .. 13
Predictions . . . . 14

TAXONOMY AND DISTRIBUTION OF MARTINS . .. 16

METHODS . . . . . . 18

Study Areas . . . . .. 18
Materials . . . . . 19
Description of Behavioral Techniques . .21
Criteria for Recognizing Display Units . .. 24

TERMINOLOGY . . . . . 28

Vocal Displays . . . . 28
Visual Displays . . . ... 29

VISUAL COMMUNICATION . . . .. 32

Stereotypy of Behavior Patterns . .. 33
Discussion . . . . . 42
Description of Visual Displays . . .. 46

Head Forward Thrust . . ... .48
Gaping . . . . 53
Bill-Snapping . . . . 55
Lunge . . . . . 55













High-Up Displays . . . .
Claiming-Reclaiming . . .
White Badge Signal . . .
Fighting . . . . .

Analysis of Visual Communication . .

Sequences in Defense of Territory . .
Relation of Displays to Subsequent Behavior
Effectiveness of Displays . . .
Component Structure of Displays . .
Signal Value of Postural Components .
Presentation of the Bill . . .
Categories of Behavior . . .


Discussion . . . .

VOCAL COMMUNICATION . . . .

Description of Vocal Displays . .


. 100

* 110

. 110


Purple Martin . . .
Gray-Breasted Martin . .
Caribbean Martin . . .


111
126
134


Analysis and Discussion of Vocal Displays

Stereotypy . . . .
Ecology of Communication . .

TERRITORIALITY . . . .

Assessment . . . .
Purple Martin . . . .

Establishment of Territory . .
Establishment of Territory by Later
Arriving Birds . . .
Behavior of First-Year Males .
Territory Size . . .
Gourd Complex Versus Multiroom Houses

Gray-Breasted Martin . . .

Establishment of Territory . .
Gray-Breasted Martin Colony Defense .

Caribbean Martin . . . .


. 140

. 151
. 156

. 161

S. 162
* 163

. 163

. 165
. 166
. 167
. 173

. 176

. 176
. 179

. 180


Page


. 56
. 60
. 62
. 63

. 68

. 68
. 77
. 78
. 80
. 90
. 91
. 92










Page


Asymmetry in Resource Holding Potential ... .181

Asymmetry in Ownership Status . . 183
Asymmetry in Age-Related Plumage Character-
istics . .. ... .. . 185
Asymmetry in Aggressive Behavior . 186
Asymmetry of Size and Weight on Dominance 187
Asymmetry in Contests Due to Sex . .. .190

Discussion . .. . . 194

RHP Asymmetries . . . .. .195
Pay-Off Asymmetries . . .. 198
Uncorrelated Asymmetries . ... 201

DOMINANCE POSITION .. . . . 202

Introduction . . . . ... .202

Data Analysis .. . . 203

Purple Martin .. . . 208
Gray-Breasted Martin . . .. .213
Rank in the Hierarchy . . .. .214

Discussion . . . . . .218

CONCLUSIONS . . . . ... .220

LITERATURE CITED . . . . .. .227

BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH . . . . .. .244


vii

















LIST OF TABLES


Table Page

1. Comparisons of Agonistic and Nonagonistic Body
and Limb Movement, Final Position, and Duration
of Movements in Seconds . . ... 36

2. Comparisons of Variances of Agonistic and
Nonagonistic Movements . . .. 38

3. Frequencies of Initial Displays . ... 69

4. Incidence of Single Displays from Different
Types of Encounters . . . .. 71

5. Proportion of Displays Used as Initial Versus
Terminal Responses in Two-Display Sequences 74

6. Purple Martins: Display of Signaler and the
Subsequent Behavior of the Signaler and
Receiver . . . .... .. 75

7. Gray-Breasted Martins: Display of the Signaler
and the Subsequent Behavior of the Signaler
and the Receiver . . . .. 76

8. Simultaneous Occurrence of Behavioral Components
Given by Territorial Male Purple Martins to
Intruders . . . .... 83

9. Simultaneous Occurrence of Behavioral Components
Given by Territorial Male Gray-Breasted Martins
to Intruders . . . ... 84

10. Purple Martins: Behavioral Components of
Displays Versus Subsequent Behavior of Signaler
and of Receiver .. . . . 86

11. Gray-Breasted Martins: Behavioral Components of
Displays Versus Subsequent Behavior of Signaler
and of Receiver . . . ... 88

12. Song Rates of Male Purple Martins During
Different External Situations . . .. .125


viii









Table Page

13. Percentage Occurrence of Vocalizations During
Agonistic Behavior of Purple Martins . .. .141

14. Percentage Occurrence of Vocalizations During
Agonistic Behavior of Gray-Breasted Martins 142

15. Percentage Occurrence of Vocalizations During
Agonistic Behavior of Caribbean Martins . 143

16. Percentage of Several Vocalizations Given in
Various Contexts by Purple Martins . 146

17. Percentage of Several Vocalizations Given in
Various Contexts by Gray-Breasted Martins 147

18. Percentage pf Several Vocalizations Given in
Various Contexts by Caribbean Martins ... .148

19. Comparisons of the Physical Characteristics of
Purple Martin Vocalizations . ... .152

20. Comparisons of the Physical Characteristics of
Gray-Breasted Martin Vocalizations . .. .153

21. Comparisons of the Physical Characteristics of
Caribbean Martin Vocalizations . ... .154

22. Number of Male Purple Martins and Their Maximum
and Minimum Territory Sizes with Male's Months
of Arrival . . . . 170

23. A Comparison of the Number of Fights at a Gourd
Complex Versus a Multiroom House for Purple
Martin Males .. . . . 174

24. A Comparison of the Length of Time Spent Loaf-
ing at a Gourd Complex Versus a Multiroom House
for Purple Martin Males . . ... .175

25. Comparison of Whether Prior Occupancy at a
Nesting Site Determines the Winner of the
Encounter . . . .... .. .184

26. Comparison of the Number of Encounters Between
Adult Purple, Gray-Breasted, and Caribbean
Martins in Which a Bird Dominated as a Result
of Whether or Not it Initiated the Encounter .188









Table Page

27. Comparison of 241 Purple Martin Encounters in
Which a Bird Dominated as a Function of Age and
of Whether it Initiated the Fight . ... 189

28. Comparison of Dominance with Body Weight and
Body Size in Purple Martins . ... .191

29. Comparison of Dominance with Body Weight and
Body Size in Gray-Breasted Martins . .. .192

30. Number of Supplantings at the Nest Sites
Between Purple Martins at the Gainesville
Country Club (1978) . . . 204

31. Number of Purple Martin Supplantings Taking
Place Other Than in Front of the Nest hole,
i.e. at Telephone Wires, Colony Rooftops,
Television Antennas . . .. . 205

32. Number of Supplantings Observed at the Nest
Sites Between Gray-Breasted Martins at Pointe-
a-Pierre (1979) . . . .. 206

33. Number of Gray-Breasted Martin Supplantings
Taking Place Other Than in the Territories of
the Pumphouse Birds, i.e. at Guard Rails,
Pipes, Rooftop . . . 207

34. A Comparison Between Whether Lower-Ranking
Males Entered Their Nest Holes More Often When
Confronted by a High-Ranking Male . ... .210

35. The Degree of Association at the Nest Sites
Between Two Measures of Dominance in the Purple
Martin, Rank in the Hierarchy and Number of
Interactions Initiated and Won . ... .216

36. The Degree of Association at the Nest Sites
Between Two Measures of Dominance in the Gray-
Breasted Martin, Rank in the Hierarchy and
Number of Interactions Initiated and Won . 217
















LIST OF FIGURES


Figure Page

1. Schematic outline showing how body and limb
positions were measured . . .. 26

2. Postures associated with inactivity: A. Purple
Martin; B. Gray-breasted Martin; C. Caribbean
Martin . . . . .. ... 47

3. Displays associated with threat behavior:
A. Low-intensity Head Forward Thrust (Purple
Martin); B. high-intensity Head Forward Thrust
(Purple Martin); C. low-intensity Head Forward
Thrust (Gray-breasted Martin); D. high-
intensity Head Forward Thrust (Gray-breasted
Martin); E. variation of the high-intensity
Head Forward Thrust (Gray-breasted Martin);
F. low-intensity Head Forward Thrust (Caribbean
Martin); G. high-intensity Head Forward Thrust
(Caribbean Martin) . . . .. 49

4. Displays associated with threat behavior:
A. Gaping; B. Gaping between mates; C. Defen-
sive Gaping; D. Lunge. . . . 54

5. Display associated with appeasement behavior;
A. Withdraw High-Up; B. Alert High-Up;
C. White Badge Signal . . .. 58

6. Fighting interactions between male martins 65

7. Models of interactions between martins . 72

8. Gradation of threat displays . .. 93

9. Pair-wise comparisons of probabilities that a
Purple Martin signaler will attack, retreat, or
stay for all possible combinations of displays.
Dark blocks indicate a significant difference
at the 0.05 level, test for significance between
two proportions. LIHF= low-intensity Head
Forward Thrust, HIHF= high-intensity Head









Figure Page

Forward Thrust, G= Gaping, BS= Bill-snapping,
L= Lunge, WHU=Withdraw High-Up, AHU= Alert
High-Up . . . . ... .94

10. Pair-wise comparisons of probabilities that a
Purple Martin receiver will attack, retreat, or
stay for all possible combinations of displays.
Dark blocks indicate a significant difference at
the 0.05 level, test for significance between
two proportions. LIHF= low-intensity Head
Forward Thrust, HIHF= high-intensity Head
Forward Thrust, G= Gaping, BS= Bill-snapping,
L= Lunge, WHU=Withdraw High-Up, AHU= Alert
High-Up . . . . ... .. 95

11. Pair-wise comparisons of probabilities that a
Gray-breasted Martin signaler will attack,
retreat, or stay for all possible combinations
of displays. Dark blocks indicate a signifi-
cant difference at the 0.05 level, test for
significance between two proportions.
LIHF= low-intensity Head Forward Thrust,
HIHF= high-intensity Head Forward Thrust,
G= Gaping, BS= Bill-snapping, L= Lunge,
WHU=Withdraw High-Up, AHU= Alert High-Up . 96

12. Pair-wise comparisons of probabilities that a
Gray-breasted Martin receiver will attack,
retreat, or stay for all possible combinations
of displays. Dark blocks indicate a signifi-
cant difference at the 0.05 level, test for
significance between two proportions.
LIHF= low-intensity Head Forward Thrust,
HIHF= high-intensity Head Forward Thrust,
G= Gaping, BS= Bill-snapping, L= Lunge,
WHU=Withdraw High-Up, AHU= Alert High-Up 97

13. Sonograms of Purple Martin vocalizations:
A. series of Cher calls from one individual;
B. one Zweet call; C. series of Zweet calls
from one individual; D. series of Zweet calls
from one individual when a cat was observed;
E. Zweet and Cher calls from one individual;
F. Hee-hee calls from two individuals .. .112

14. Sonograms of Purple Martin vocalizations:
A. series of Chortle calls from one female;
B. series of Chortle calls from one male;
C. Chortle song; D. Zwrack calls given by
different individuals; E. Rattle call from
one individual; F. Choo calls from a female .118


xii









Figure Page

15. Sonograms of Purple and Gray-breasted Martin
vocalizations: A. Purple Martin Primary song;
B. incomplete Purple Martin Primary song;
C. Gray-breasted Martin Cree calls; D. Gray-
breasted Martin Zwat calls; E. Gray-breasted
Martin Cluck calls; F. Gray-breasted Martin
Krack calls . . . . 123

16. Sonograms of Gray-breasted and Caribbean Martin
vocalizations: A. series of Gray-breasted
Martin Zurr calls; B. series of Gray-breasted
Martin Cheur calls; C. Gray-breasted Martin
Primary song; D. Gray-breasted Martin Rattle
call; E. Caribbean Martin Peak calls;
F. Caribbean Martin Zwoot call; G. Caribbean
Martin Croot call. . . . 127

17. Sonograms of Caribbean Martin vocalizations:
A. Primary song; B. incomplete Primary song;
C. series of Wheet calls; D. series of Kweet
calls from one individual; E. Wrack call . 136

18. The dates on which the minimum territory size
was established at the Purple Martin multi-
room houses .. . . . 168

19. Territory size as a function of the number of
Purple Martin males at a multiroom house .. 171

20. Territory size as a function of the number of
fights at a Purple Martin multiroom house . 172

21. Territory size as a function of the number of
fights at a Gray-breasted Martin nesting area .178

22. Number of encounters as a function of the sex
of the bird . . . . ... .193

23. Frequency of participants in encounters as a
function of the distance between nestholes 211

24. Number of supplantings at a Purple Martin
multiroom house during the breeding season 212

25. Number of supplantings at the Gray-breasted
Martin nest area during the breeding season 215


xiii
















Abstract of Dissertation Presented to the Graduate School
of the University of Florida in Partial Fulfillment of the
Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy



THE COMPARATIVE BEHAVIOR OF THREE
SPECIES OF SWALLOWS (genus Progne)

By

Erik Joshua Bitterbaum

August, 1986


Chairman: Dr. John William Hardy
Major Department: Zoology

The vocal and visual displays of three species of

swallows (Genus Progne) are described and analyzed struc-

turally and functionally. I examine the way in which

predictions from models based on game theory can help us

understand ethological data about agonistic displays.

Predictions based on game theory are contrasted with the

traditional ethological view that agonistic displays evolved

to transmit information about the probability of attack or

escape. After a signaler's display, both the signaler's

action and the receiver's response are recorded. I conclude

that information about attack is poorly encoded in the

aggressive displays, and suggest that many agonistic

displays may signal that the subsequent behavior of the

displaying bird depends in part on that of the receiver.


xiv









I give evidence that most of these aggressive displays are

used in a broad range of situations, suggesting that they

encode general messages and that specificity in communica-

tion depends largely on contextual information.

Social interactions of the swallows I studied are

based upon the mechanism of territoriality. Territoriality

is associated with defense of a critical resource, which in

these birds is a breeding territory. The establishment of

territory is associated with age-related plumage charac-

teristics, residency, and aggression. Dominance hierarchies

in the swallows studied are linear away from the nest sites

and nonlinear at the breeding sites. Thus, the outcome of

an encounter between individuals is site-dependent. These

findings are discussed in the light of recent theoretical

advances in the study of animal threat and fighting behav-

ior.
















INTRODUCTION


In this study, I investigated the display behavior of

three species of swallows, genus Progne: the Purple Martin

(P. subis), the Gray-breasted Martin (P. chalybea), and the

Caribbean Martin (P. dominicensis). Specifically, the aims

of this study were to (1) describe the vocal and physical

displays, (2) provide information on the function of each

display, (3) suggest how each species's display behavior is

related to its social organization, and (4) examine some

aspects of the ecology of communication.

General accounts of the behavior and life history of

the Purple Martin have been given by Allen and Nice (1952),

Bent (1942), Bitterbaum and Brown (1981), Brown (1975,

1978a, 1979a, 1979b, 1980, 1984), Brown and Bitterbaum

(1980), Finlay (1971, 1976), Gaunt (1959), Jackson and Tate

(1974), Johnston and Hardy (1962), and Rohwer and Niles

(1977, 1979). Previous studies of the behavior of the Gray-

breasted Martin have been published by Beebe, Hartley, and

Howe (1917), Bent (1942), Dyrcz (1984), Eisenmann and

Haverschmidt (1970), ffrench (1976) and Hellmayr (1906).

Little is known about the behavior of Caribbean Martins

apart from comments made by Belcher and Smooker (1937) and

ffrench (1976).









Communication has been defined historically as an

exchange of information between two animals for their mutual

benefit (Geist, 1971; Hailman, 1977; Marler, 1956, 1961;

Miller, 1983; Nugent, 1979; Post & Greenlaw, 1975; Zahavi,

1982). Animal X (the signaler) transmits a signal that

alters the behavior of animal Y (the receiver); however,

neither the signal nor the response constitutes

communication in themselves. Even if one animal signals and

the other responds, there has been no communication unless

the probability of response is altered from what it would

have been in the absence of the signal (Klopfer & Hatch,

1968; Wilson, 1975). Not all signals necessarily provoke an

immediate, specific response from the receiver. A stimulus

may simply change the animal's responsiveness to another

signal, or the stimulus may persist and be perceived after a

delay (Burghardt, 1970; Marler & Peters, 1977; Wilson,

1975).



Ritualization

I here discuss how signals may have evolved through

natural selection for effective communication. I mainly

address two questions: (1) What is the evidence that

communication takes place when individuals of three differ-

ent species of swallows interact with others of their own

species, and (2) What is the evidence that particular

behavior patterns of these birds are indeed signals? The

action of a signaler can be an overt behavior, such as a









visual or acoustical display, or a change in the sender's

morphology or physiology (such as coloration of an append-

age), or even an odor associated with an excretion (Smith,

1977).

Most signals in animals are transmitted by special

displays. A display is a specific behavior pattern that has

become specialized to modify the behavior of another indi-

vidual (Krebs & Davies, 1981). The process of evolution or

displays from non-display movements is called ritualization.

By definition, a ritualized pattern must have been, at some

time, less functional in communication and not a display

pattern or other specialized communicatory activity.

Previously, ritualization was seen by some workers as

reducing the amount of ambiguity of potentially informative

actions (Darwin, 1872; Morris 1956). In becoming more

stylized and exaggerated, the information content, and

therefore the signal property, of the display was enhanced.

This traditional view of communication argued that it was

possible to determine the information content of a signal

from a knowledge of the response of other animals to that

signal and from knowledge of the environmental and behav-

ioral contexts in which that response was given (Andersson,

1976; Dunham, 1966; Stokes, 1962a).

More recent ideas, however, suggest that displays are

likely to evolve that disguise the real internal state or

intentions of the animal (Charnov & Krebs, 1975; Dawkins &

Krebs, 1978, 1984). This view proposes that signals are









manipulative in function and are used to persuade recipients

to behave in ways that benefit the signaler. Threat dis-

plays, for example, may disguise an animal's intent to flee

by making it appear aggressive (Maynard Smith, 1974). To

view animal communication as potentially deceitful is a

sharp departure from the more traditional view of ritualiza-

tion.

This new view leads to a third hypothesis concerning

the evolution of ritualization, which emphasizes that

displays are the result of selection by receivers for

reliable signals. Zahavi (1979) suggests that displays

become more stereotyped and repetitive because stereotypy

provides a uniform background against which subtle differ-

ences between individuals are emphasized. Recipients are

selected to discriminate between signals on the basis of the

signal's reliability as an indicator of an animal's parental

ability, size, strength, or fighting ability. In this

manner a female may assess the courtship feeding or display

of a number of potential mates with their ability to gather

food for her young. Thus, current animal communication

theory is the focus of three conflicting hypotheses that

explain the selective advantage of ritualization:

(1) reduction of ambiguity or information sharing,

(2) manipulation, and (3) reliable or honest signals.









How Signals Originate

Early understanding of ritualization came from Huxley

(1914, 1923, 1966), Lorenz (1950, 1966), and Tinbergen

(1952, 1959) when they realized that displays usually

evolved from other movements that formerly had no signalling

function--the principle of derived activities. According to

these three ethologists, ritualization begins when some

behavior pattern that is functional in another situation

becomes "emancipated" from its original motivational context

and acquires a secondary value as a signal. For example, an

individual bird can begin by recognizing an open bill as an

overt threat. Once this happens, selection will favor

signalers who open their bills in a fighting context because

of the effect on opponents, and the open bill in certain

contexts begins to evolve into a threat display.

Historically, three primary sources of displays were

recognized by ethologists: intention movements, displace-

ment activities, and redirected activities (Andrew, 1956;

Daanje, 1950; Hinde & Tinbergen, 1958). Intention movements

are the preparatory or incomplete movements that often

appear at the beginning of an activity. During the process

of ritualization such movements are altered in a way that

makes their communicative function more effective. Inten-

tion movements tend to become simplified, stereotyped,

repetitive, and exaggerated in form (McFarland & Houston,

1981). They also may acquire morphological support in the

form of additional structures that enhance the









conspicuousness of the movement. One example is found in

the Mandarin Duck (Aix galericulata), which has some of its

wing feathers modified to form a bright orange sail that is

erected during courtship preening (Lorenz, 1941). The

ancestral preening movements are reduced to a quick turn of

the head so that the bill points to the orange sail.

Other displays have evolved from displacement activ-

ities--the "out of context" behavior patterns that often

appear in conflict situations. These movements may reflect

motivational conflict or indecision as the animal vacillates

between, for example, attack and moving away (Hinde, 1970).

Examples include displacement scratching in lovebirds

(Aqapornis species; Dilger, 1960) and domestic chickens

(gallus Domesticus; McBride et al., 1969), which appears to

be derived from activities related to the collection of nest

material.

A third source for the evolution of displays is redi-

rected activities. The behavior pattern is in the right

context but directed at an inappropriate stimulus. When a

male approaches a potential rival with tendencies both to

intimidate and to flee, he may choose neither course of

action at first. Instead he performs a third, seemingly

irrelevant, act. He redirects his aggression toward the

ground or some object nearby such as a blade of grass.

Cullen (1966) and Tinbergen (1952) describe certain displays

of terns and gulls that may have been redirected behavior

derived from attack behavior.









After the appearance of Timbergen's 1952 article,

ethologists began to interpret communication systems by what

came to be known as the conflict theory of the origin of

displays. Subsequent neurophysiological experimentation on

a variety of animal groups failed to provide confirmation of

key elements of the Tinbergen model, and the conflict

hypothesis was modified from its original form (Baerends,

1975; Brown & Hunsperger, 1963; Deluis, 1973; Ewert, 1985;

Greenberg, 1977; Ishii, 1984). Later, Andrew (1963, 1972),

Hinde (1981), and Wickler (1969) interpreted ritualization

as a pervasive, highly opportunistic process that could be

derived from almost any available behavior pattern, anatom-

ical structure or physiological change. Additional sources

of displays have been traced to preening, feather-settling,

autonomic responses, and temperature-regulating movements

(Beer, 1975; McKinney, 1965; Wittenberger, 1981).

Intention movements and displacement activities still

tend to be singled out by many authors as the prime sources

for avian signal movements, but it has been realized for

some time that this is an oversimplification (Caryl, 1982;

Cullen, 1972; Hinde, 1970; Moynihan, 1955; Smith, 1977). In

particular, there seems to be increasing doubt about the

"out of context" interpretation of display origins through

the displacement phenomenon. This whole subject remains

controversial. The concept of displacement activities, once

frequently used loosely, is now widely recognized as unclear

and is to be used cautiously if at all (Hinde, 1970).









In general, the task of integrating the concepts of

motivational conflict and communication processes is still

one of the most difficult confronting ethologists. A major

difficulty in applying motivational concepts is that they

call for increasingly detailed causal analyses and yet they

remain untested until they can be translated into physio-

logical terms. Many researchers have directed the main

focus of their attention away from motivational interpre-

tations toward communication processes and questions of

adaptive function (Andrew, 1972; Beer, 1977; Brown, 1964;

Greenquist, 1982; Nuechterlein & Storer, 1982, 1985;

Robbins, 1983; Tinbergen, 1972; Willis, 1972; Wilson, 1975).

But, as McCleery (1978), McFarland (1971, 1977), Sibly and

McCleery (1985) and Sibly and McFarland (1976) have pointed

out, in order to understand what an animal will do at any

particular moment, it is necessary to take into account

causal and functional considerations simultaneously. For

example, if a bird is hungry but the risk of looking for

food is high because of predators, the bird may wait until

the predators have moved elsewhere. Birds have decision

rules that involve comparing their physiological state

(hunger) with risks in the environment, because these will

influence the animal's calibration of its internal state.

In the future, Sibly, McCleery and McFarland's argument may

lead to important links between causal and functional

questions.









In recent years, our understanding of animal displays

has been enhanced by the application of game-theory models

(Bishop & Cannings, 1978; Caryl, 1979, 1981; Hammerstein,

1981; Hines, 1977; Maynard Smith, 1974, 1976; Maynard Smith

& Parker, 1976; Maynard Smith & Price, 1973; Parker, 1974,

1978; Parker & Rubenstein, 1981). Gaming involves the

principle of optimization--an individual should attempt to

minimize its energy expenditures while maximizing its energy

gains. The greatest benefit to fitness can be derived from

a dispute by expending only that energy necessary to win.

The prediction is that when fighting or coercion entails a

large energy expenditure or a significant risk of physical

injury and a loss of reproductive opportunity, individuals

will exhibit less dangerous, more conventional behavior

patterns for settling disputes. These conventions usually

take the form of ritualized displays. Thus, all partici-

pants involved in a dispute will receive benefits from using

displays rather than coercion.

In this dissertation, I am most interested in the use

of communication by birds in conflict situations, specif-

ically in competition for limited resources. Because there

are three hypotheses about the selective advantage of

ritualization, I will discuss the three different models

with specific reference to threat displays.









The Information Hypothesis

According to the information or traditional view of

communication, ritualization is the result of making the

behavior of the signaler more predictable to a recipient by

making available some information about the internal state

or probable next behavior of the signaler (Cullen, 1966;

Dawkins & Kerbs, 1978, 1984; Smith, 1968, 1977). Implicit

in this definition is the requirement that the signal's

message is the information it conveys, and its meaning is

its effect on the receiver's behavior. By communicating,

the signaler gains a certain degree of control over the

actions of the receiver, and the adaptive significance to

the signaler of this type of control is the function of the

signal (Smith, 1977). For example, a bird seeing an

approaching intruder may show a specific display indicating

the high probability that it (the signaler) is, or soon will

be, engaged in attack. Upon seeing the display, the

intruder retreats immediately, indicating that information

was conveyed about what the signaler will do next. Commu-

nication is thus seen as a means by which receivers can

predict the future behavior of signalers and act appropri-

ately. Signalers are selected to inform receivers of their

internal state to make it easy for receivers to predict

their future behavior. Both parties benefit from displays

that are efficient, unambiguous, and as informative as

possible. The information content, and therefore the signal









property, of the action is enhanced when displays become

more stylized and exaggerated.

If, however, displays must be clearcut and unambiguous

to be most effective, increasing the clarity of signals by

increasing their stereotypy may reduce the amount of

information they convey about the signaler. Though signal

complexity is necessary to increase information content, it

increases the probability of misinterpretation at the same

time. For example, consider a bird that uses songs contain-

ing six syllables to transmit messages. Further, suppose

that for each syllable the bird can use any of the six sepa-

rate sounds. One message might consist of the same sound

repeated six times. Another message could consist of one

sound followed by a different sound repeated four times

followed by a third sound. The bird would have the poten-

tial to transmit 66 (or a total of 46,656) different mes-

sages. In avian communication, no bird is believed to have

such a system. Instead, motor patterns are simplified and

the components of displays are often repetitive. Morris

(1956) called this stereotypy (typical intensity).

In "typical intensity" the movement has the same form

over a wide range of motivational states. Morris viewed it

as the product of selection to reduce ambiguity in displays.

Charles Darwin (1872) discussed the principle of antithesis

when he described how threat and appeasement postures had

come to extreme opposites--a threatening dog stands erect,

while a submissive dog crouches or rolls on its back. By









making a movement more recognizable to another individual, a

display becomes more effective in eliciting a response.



The Manipulation Hypothesis

Caryl (1979, 1981, 1982), Charnov and Krebs (1975),

Dawkins (1976, 1982), Dawkins and Krebs (1978, 1984), and

Hammerstein (1981) have criticized the traditional viewpoint

that signals function primarily to provide information.

Instead, they favor a second hypothesis that signals

function to manipulate, prod, coerce, or persuade receivers

to the advantage of the signaler. Dawkins (1976, 1982)

pictured animals as machines designed to preserve and

propagate their genes. As a means to this end, animals may

manipulate both biotic and abiotic objects in the environ-

ment. Dawkins regarded object manipulation as an extended

expression, or part of the extended phenotype, of the

animal's genes. For example, a male bird does not expend

time and energy in physically moving a female to his nest;

instead he may sit at the nest site and sing. The female

may respond to the song by moving toward the male. From the

male's point of view, communication is clearly more effi-

cient than trying to acquire a female by force. Communica-

tion is no longer a cooperative exchange of information

between the signaler and receiver, but a signaler manipulat-

ing a receiver to its own advantage. Usually the signaler

and receiver benefit from the communication, and both will

be selected to maximize their own benefit.









In 1974, Maynard Smith described a model, the War of

Attrition, intended to represent an agonistic encounter that

was settled by display alone. He used an argument from

game-theory to show that individuals would not be expected

to provide truthful information or to respond to information

provided by an opponent because of the way in which this

strategy could be exploited by cheaters. When he considered

how natural selection was likely to act, it was difficult

for him to imagine how selection could favor information-

sharing. Instead, he assumed that there was nothing to

prevent animals from lying about what they would do next.

Moreover, for an animal to declare its intentions early in

an encounter would be like showing one's hand to an opponent

at the beginning of a card game. If two animals were

contesting a resource by means of ritualized displays, it

would not benefit either animal to reveal whether it would

attack or flee until the last possible moment. Thus,

Maynard Smith suggested that typical intensity had evolved

in threat displays to conceal the precise behavior probabil-

ities of the signaler, not to make the signal more easily

recognizable as was postulated by Morris (1956).



The Honesty Hypothesis

A third hypothesis, suggested by Maynard Smith and

Price (1973) and Zahavi (1979), is that ritualization is the

result of selection by recipients for reliable signals.

During evolution a number of different factors could have









encouraged the trend toward species-typical display stereo-

typy. Females would have increased fitness if they used

reliable cues to male fitness as a criterion for mate

selection. If females could detect some consistent species-

unique trait in the male display of their species,

they would avoid investment in non-viable or uncompetitive

males.

Ritualization of display behavior during agonistic

interactions also would be selected if an animal's inten-

tion, degree of motivation, and potential strength (e.g.,

body size) in relation to the viewer's strength were con-

veyed by some set of signals. This information could be

used to predict who would win a physical encounter without

the need to actually fight. Both contestants would benefit

by avoiding energy expenditures and chance of injury.



Predictions

There have been few empirical tests to distinguish

between these hypotheses. The information hypothesis

predicts that agonistic displays should communicate the

future behavior of the signaler with maximum clarity. The

honesty hypothesis predicts that receivers are selected to

discriminate between signals on the basis of their reliabil-

ity as indicators of an individual's size, strength, age, or

skill, which could affect the receiver's chance of victory

in a contest. In both the information and honesty

hypotheses, receivers would use the information in deciding









how to respond appropriately. The manipulation hypothesis,

in contrast, predicts that signalers will not give away any

information about their motivational state or future inten-

tions. According to this hypothesis, agonistic displays

should be poor predictors of ensuing attack and escape, and

there should be no consistent difference between the behav-

ior of the eventual winner and loser until near the end of

the contest. As a result it is difficult to predict which

individual will win or lose from the displays alone, and

information about intentions is not transmitted. One of the

goals in this study was to test the applicability of the

information, manipulation, and honesty hypotheses to the

information available from martin (Progne spp.) signals.

















TAXONOMY AND DISTRIBUTION OF MARTINS


Making behavioral comparisons between closely related

species emphasizes the differences that have arisen since

speciation in a particular group. Such comparison may not

only reveal evolutionary pathways within a particular group,

but also may elucidate general patterns of evolution of

behavior. The taxonomy of the genus Progne (order Passeri-

formes) is in dispute. Specimens of all members of the

genus are still needed from many parts of their ranges,

since the locations of the wintering areas and migratory

routes are not well known.

Peters (1960) recognized five species of Progne: P.

subis (Purple Martin), with two races, subis and nesperia;

P. chalybea (Gray-breasted Martin), with two races, chalybea

and domestic; P. dominicensis (Caribbean Martin), with

three races, dominicensis, cryptoleuca, and sinaloae; P.

modest (Southern Martin), with three races, modest,

elegans, and murphy; and P. tapera (Brown-chested Martin),

with two races, tapera and fusca.

Hellmayr (1935) considered the Antillean forms

dominicensis and cryptoleuca and the west Mexican form

sinaloae to be races of subis. Although Ridgeway (1904)

recognized the close relationship between Cryptoleuca,









dominicensis, and sinaloae, he gave each specific status.

Zimmer (1955) and the A.O.U. Check-list (1957) also treated

cryptoleuca as a separate species. Zimmer gave dominicensis

specific rank, but also considered the isolated sinaloae

conspecific with dominicensis. Miller et al. (1957) dis-

agreed with Zimmer and his maintenance of sinaloae as a race

of dominicensis separate from subis. Zimmer (1955) pointed

out that treatment of populations of dominicensis as races

of subis seemed unwarranted if chalybea was maintained as a

distinct species, because dominicensis was intermediate in

characters and distribution between subis and chalybea.

Allan Phillips (1959, and pers. comm.) supported Zimmer.

Phillips collected specimens of sinaloae while working in

northern Mexico. He assigned them to dominicensis, stating

they bore no important resemblance to subis.

The relationships of the remaining two species of

Martins, modest and tapera, have been little studied.

However, the A.O.U. Check-list (1983) recommends making them

two species, the extralimital P. m. elegans and P. m.

modest. Mayr and Short (1970) consider subis, chalybea,

dominicensis, tapera, and modest a superspecies, and when

more is known about their relationships in the areas of

contact all might eventually be treated as subspecies of

subis, although this seems unlikely to me.
















METHODS


Study Areas

Field studies of the Purple Martin (PM), were conducted

in residential backyards at Gainesville, Alachua County,

Florida. I watched PMs almost daily from 15 February to

9 June 1977, from 24 February to 3 August 1978, from 21 Feb-

ruary to 14 March 1979, and from 8 February to 9 June 1980.

Over 2100 hours of observation were made. The principal

colonies occupied 16 man-made martin houses of different

sizes and designs totalling 168 nesting compartments. The

most studied colony was at the Gainesville Country Club.

This house contained eight compartments and was occupied by

six pairs of martins in 1977, seven pairs in 1978,

five pairs in 1979, and seven pairs in 1980.

The primary study site for Gray-breasted Martins (GM)

was the Trinidad-Texaco Inc. oil refinery adjacent to the

town of Pointe-a-Pierre, Trinidad. GMs nesting in holes in

broken steel pipes were studied from 18 April to 22 June

1979, for about 500 hours of observation. Additional

observations of GMs nesting among fissures in a cliff face

on the northeast coast of Galera Point, Trinidad, totaled

17 hours and were made during June 1979. I collected









supplemental data on GMs from July to August 1976 and 1977

at a secondary site in downtown Acapulco, Gerrero, Mexico.

The center of the city had several blocks of three- to

five-story buildings where birds nested in drainage pipes

and under the eaves of buildings.

I observed Caribbean Martins (CM) daily at a 2.7 hect-

are tract on the northwest side of Pigeon Point, Tobago,

from 23 June through 16 July 1979, totalling about 180 hours

of observation. The vegetation was palm trees (Euterpes

spp.) in grassy clearings with a few dense patches of native

broad-leaved trees and shrubs. CMs nested in dead palms in

holes excavated by Red-crowned Woodpeckers (Melanerpes

ribricapillus).

I observed all three species of martins during the

following five three-hour time periods: Dawn-0900, 0900-

1200, 1200-1500, 1500-1800, and 1800-dusk. Night behavior

was monitored once a week with a flashlight until birds

fledged.



Materials

Aluminum PM houses in Florida were lowered in telescop-

ing poles, and doorpanels were raised to record nest data.

Ladders were used to reach PMs nesting in gourds and wooden

houses, and nest contents were observed with a flashlight.

A small, movable dental mirror attached to a fishing pole

was used with a flashlight to observe the contents of GM

nests in broken pipes. Nest contents of GMs nesting in palm









trees accessible by ladder were examined with a flashlight

and a dental mirror.

An observation blind was not used. My presence did not

obviously affect the birds' behavior as long as I was 10 to

20 meters away. Field notes were either written directly or

dictated into a portable cassette recorder for later tran-

scription. Line drawings and diagrams were made from field

notes, frames of 8mm movie film, or 35mm still photographs.

Super-8 movie film totaling 1350 meters was taken at

16 frames per second using a GAF ST602 movie camera and was

analyzed using a Bell and Howell 1623Z stop-action projec-

tor.

Tape recordings of the vocalizations were made using a

Nagra #III open-reel recorder at 19 cm/s or with Superscope

C-105, Uher CR-134, and Sony Model TC-55 cassette recorders

at 4.25 cm/s. Recorders were coupled with a Sennheiser 805

or a K2U-ME80 unidirectional condenser microphone, a Dan

Gibson E.P.M. Model P-200 parabolic microphone, or a Realis-

tic super cardioid condenser microphone. Vocalizations were

analyzed using a Kay Elemetrics 7029A Sona-graph and/or a

Spectral Dynamics Real Time Analyzer (Hopkins et al., 1974)

Model SD 301C-C. All tapes made during this study were

deposited in the Bioacoustics Archives of the Florida State

Museum, Gainesville, Florida.

Color-marking consisted of spreading enamel model

airplane paint on PM and GM feet, remiges, and retrices.

The color-marking technique had little observable effect on









bird behavior other than the birds occasionally pecking at

their feet to remove the paint. I was unable to color-mark

CMs, but natural variations in the plumage pattern of the

ventral surface served to identify a number of birds.

All PM males with entirely dark-blue feathers (i.e., at

least two years old) were called "adults." One-year-old

males having gray ventral parts with only a few dark blue

feathers on the crown, throat, and belly were called

"yearlings." Birds in both classes were sexually mature. I

did not try to separate the very similar adult and yearling

females. Because GMs lack obvious sexual dimorphism, sex

was determined from behavioral characters associated with

copulation, courtship, and/or territorial defense. All CM

males with blue-black feathers and conspicuously contrasting

white feathers from mid-breast to vent were called "adults."

I did not separate adult and yearling CM females, which were

duller than adult males and had extensive grayish brown

feathers on the upper breast and sides. Yearling CM males

were intermediate in plumage between the adult sexes. In

this study, any references to adult or yearling individuals

or pairs are with respect only to the age of the males (as

in Brown, 1978a).



Description of Behavioral Techniques

I considered PM male arrival dates as the earliest

dates after which I regularly saw the males at the colony.

An arrival date was not necessarily the date of territory









establishment or the date of pair bond formation. During

this study GMs and CMs were already at the breeding sites

when I arrived. I also determined the proportion of time

that males spent on the territory singing and defending

(including silent periods of alert perching), and the

proportion of time that they spent preening, loafing (inac-

tivity exceeding 30 seconds), foraging, and flying near the

colony. Physical displays were named according to their

characteristic motor patterns. Vocal displays were named

according to their onomatopoeic sounds. A signaler-receiver

reference system was adopted, e.g., signaler directs behav-

ior pattern A to receiver, which can respond with behavior

pattern B. The method used to determine display function

was to describe (1) the components of the display, (2) the

circumstances in which the display occurred, (3) the behav-

ior accompanying the display, and (4) the behavior shown by

both participants immediately before and after the display

was given.

Social behavior was monitored by use of focal-group

sampling (Altmann, 1974). Interactions were recorded by

noting (1) time of occurrence, (2) sex and identity, when

known, of both the individual that initiated the interaction

and the recipient, (3) the sequence and kinds of behavioral

patterns used by both individuals, (4) the behavior immedi-

ately following the interaction, and (5) the behavior of

both individuals immediately preceding the interaction.









I studied the patterns of social dominance at and near

the nesting sites. The frequency and outcome of those

encounters, which illustrated a dominant-subordinate rela-

tionship, were recorded on matrix tables according to which

animal was successful (columns) and which one was defeated

(rows). Criteria of subordination included the turning away

of lateral body presentation, avoidance, or fleeing of a

martin relative to the approach of another individual.

Scores for dominance and subordinance were calculated for

each animal as the ratio of its wins or losses, respec-

tively, in aggressive interactions to the total number of

encounters in which it was engaged. This provided a basis

for ranking the animals for dominance or subordinance. The

discerned dominance structure, therefore, was considered an

agonistic hierarchy (Deag, 1977).

Three classes of participants in agonistic encounters

were considered: (1) encounters between males (male-male),

(2) encounters between females (female-female), and

(3) encounters in which a male directed an act toward a

female (male-female). Female-directed acts toward males

were not included because of their low frequency. Rates of

agonistic interactions for each sex class were calculated by

dividing the number of agonistic encounters that occurred in

a specific sex class by the number of pair-hours of observa-

tion for that class. The number of pair-hours of observa-

tion was a measure of the time available to any pair of









animals for potential interactions and was calculated for

each class following the method of Struhsaker (1967).



Criteria for Recognizing Display Units

The study of ritualized behavior patterns involves an

ethological description of each pattern, tests to show that

the pattern is effective in communication, and measurements

and comparisons of the pattern with other patterns to

suggest its origin. However, variation in form of display

behavior raises several difficult problems for observers who

wish to describe display behavior and to determine the

number of display units in a species' repertoire.

In practice, two types of behavioral classifications

may be distinguished: one involves description by motor

pattern and the other involves description by consequence

(Hinde, 1970). In the first method, an attempt is made to

describe the actual pattern of muscle movements made by the

animal with little reference to the effects of the behavior

on the environment. Terms such as "wing flick" and "bill-

snapping" are of this type. When classifying by conse-

quence, the observer records the effect of the behavior on

the environment. Thus, one may use categories of behavior

such as an animal "staying put" or "retreating." In this

case, one emphasizes the important consequences and

directedness of behavior. In this study, the two types of

description intergrade, though each extreme can be quite

useful in the appropriate circumstances.









Questions about how much stereotypy is typical of

displays and how much stereotypy is necessary to justify

calling the behavior a display are under increasing dis-

cussion in ethology (pers. comm. Brockmann, 1984; Schleidt,

1974). Some degree of stereotypy seems necessary in order

for displays to be distinguishable from other stimuli

competing for the attention of the receiver. Indeed, one

secondary purpose of this study is to measure how much

evolutionary modification is required before a behavior

pattern is called a signal.

I made position measurements from 35mm photographs and

enlarged drawings traced from the projection of individual

frames of 8mm film. Two types of movements were measured:

(1) movements of the head, bill, trunk, wings, tail, and

legs during agonistic interactions, and (2) the same move-

ments when birds were not engaged in agonistic interactions.

I measured speed of movement as the number of frames of film

between the start of a movement and the completion of that

movement. Postures were measured as diagrammed in Figure 1.

Degrees of movement of the body or limbs were recorded as

the difference between starting and final positions. From

these measurements, I calculated the mean and variance of

final postures and speed of movements for behavior patterns

executed during agonistic and nonagonistic interactions. I

used the coefficient of variation (CV) to measure how

"fixed" or stereotyped a behavior, particularly a display,

was relative to other behavior patterns (Schleidt, 1974).


























































Figure 1. Schematic outline showing how body and limb
positions were measured.









Significant differences between CVs were determined using
the "c" test statistic (Dawkins & Dawkins, 1973):

c = (CV1-CV2) where Scv=CV
2 2
Scv +Scv2 2N
1 2


The probability associated with c was obtained from the

table for the distribution of t. Using this method, I could

test for a significant difference between the CVs for

behavior patterns used in different contests. I also

measured certain additional changes in behavior patterns:

(1) changes in speed of execution of movements, (2) freezing

of movements, (3) exaggeration of some components of move-

ments, (4) omission of components of movements, and

(5) decreases in variability of movements.

















TERMINOLOGY


Vocal Displays

Shiovitz (1975) refined the definitions of Bondesson

and Davis (1975) in an attempt to standardize bird vocaliza-

tion terminology. Unfortunately, the classification scheme

proposed by Shiovitz was not adequate to fully describe

Progne vocalizations; hence, I have employed the following

terms.

Note: Any short, uninterrupted sound represented by a

continuous trace on a sonogram.

Syllable: A sound consisting of a note or group of

notes; the basic structural unit of a song,

separated from adjacent syllables by a silent

period of 0.02-0.20 seconds.

Terminal Syllable: A syllable terminating a song,

unlike syllables making up the main phrase.

Call: A vocalization represented by a single discrete

figure on a sonogram.

Song: A unique combination of syllables in a

stereotyped sequence, often shared by several

members of the population. The distinction

between song and call in this study conforms to









that of other workers (see Armstrong, 1963).

Phrase: A natural section of the song; a grouping of

syllables in a characteristic temporal sequence.

Song Type: Used interchangeably with theme; a fixed

sequence of phrases characterizing a population

or group of populations.

Trill: A consecutive series of similar syllables

repeated serially at about 4 to 17 per second,

producing a rattling sound.

No attempt was made here to describe in quantitative detail

all parameters of all song types. Instead, I have empha-

sized those general features shared by most song types since

they apparently identify the songs as those of Progne.



Visual Displays

In the recent literature of animal communication

certain terms have come to mean different things to differ-

ent investigators (Caryl, 1979, Dawkins & Krebs, 1978;

Hinde, 1981). For that reason I have defined and will use

the following terms.

Intention Movement: These are incomplete movements

and precursory movements.

Act or Action Pattern: A set of observable activities

not analyzable into separate occurring compo-

nents (Russell et al., 1954).









Signal: The behavior (e.g. posture, display,

vocalization) transmitted by the signaler.

Display: Any stereotyped behavior pattern (such as

vocal or visual stimuli), alone or in combina-

tion, that serves a signal function to other

animals.

Ritualization: The process by which a behavior pattern

becomes stereotyped and acquires a signal

function.

Signaler: An individual which transmits a signal.

Receiver: An individual whose probability of behaving

in a particular way is altered by a signal.

Context: The setting in which a signal is transmitted

and received.

Communication: Action on the part of an organism

(signaler) that alters the pattern of behavior

in another organism (receiver).

Territory: A restricted area defended by an animal

against intruders, usually for breeding pur-

poses.

Dominance Hierarchy: A social ranking, formed through

agonistic behavior, in which individuals are

associated with each other so that some have

greater access to resources than do others.

Agonistic Behavior: Any behavior associated with

threat, fighting, and retreat.









Approach: Movement of one or both martins toward each

other, but with no attempt to strike with the

bill.

Threat: Indicates that the signaler could act

aggressively.

Supplant: Replacing an individual at a given place.

In this action, one martin moves to the place

where a second martin is perched, but does not

follow the supplanted individual.

Attack: Movement toward an individual that culminates

in physical contact between individuals.

Fight: When a receiver retaliates to a signaler, both

martins attack.

Chase: Pursuit of a second, moving individual.

Retreat: Behavior in which one bird moves away from

another in response to an attack or display.

Stay: Neither attacking nor retreating, but remaining

stationary.

Inactive: A bird resting and not engaged in obvious

interactions for 30 seconds or more.
















VISUAL COMMUNICATION



This section describes visual communication during the

breeding season in the three species of martins that I

studied. Detailed description of behavior is a prerequisite

for the analysis of its function. No matter what the aim of

the ethological study, all such studies must start by

splitting behavior into categories, even if only to enable

the observer to decide which he should include and which he

will ignore. If all behavior patterns were species-typical

and invariant fixed action patterns, this task would be an

easy one. In birds, many behavior patterns vary consid-

erably in form and intensity, making classification more

difficult. By specifying precisely what an animal does and

does not do, one can begin to cut down the number of tenable

hypotheses about underlying function.

The first part of this study was designed to obtain

some measure of stereotypy and to compare ritualization in

these three martin species. The second part contains

descriptions of behavioral acts. Some of these acts have

been described previously (Allen & Nice, 1952; Brown, 1978a,

1978b; Johnston & Hardy, 1962), but are described again to

bring out the important features emphasized in this study.









I will concentrate on those behavioral acts that have

acquired a special function in social communication and are

considered displays. A few displays are considered in some

detail if they have not been studied by other researchers in

the past, and in a few cases I have separated some complex

displays into simpler parts. The third part deals with the

actual process of communication. Communication involves

concepts such as the context in which the signal occurs, the

message "intended" by the signaler, and the meaning of the

signal for the recipient (Smith 1965).



Stereotypy of Behavior Patterns

Some degree of stereotypy is necessary in order for

displays to be distinguished from other stimuli competing

for the attention of the receiver. A researcher has to deal

with the question of how much stereotypy is required to

constitute the criteria for calling a behavior pattern a

signal. The coefficient of variation (CV) has been used to

measure how "fixed" or stereotyped a behavior, particularly

a display, is relative to other behavior patterns (Schleidt,

1974). The CV is the standard deviation expressed as a

percentage of the mean (CV=SDxlOO/x; Hazlett, 1972). The

greater the CV, the greater the variability in the data set.

Bekoff (1977) discussed whether it might be possible to

define some cut-off point between the categories of "fixed"

and "variable." He was asking whether it would be possible

to set up a standard CV against which a variety of data









could be compared. For example, it might be the case that

one could recognize a behavior pattern and differentiate it

from another behavior pattern when the CV is less than 30%

(Schleidt, 1974). On the other hand, birds are undoubtedly

better perceivers of their own conspecific behavior than are

humans, and a 30% variability may be too high. According to

Barlow (1977) and Wiley (1973), the maximum values of CV

that might be allowable in order to refer to a behavior

pattern as stereotyped are undecided and relatively

arbitrary. Since the communicative value of many displays

varies with context, guidelines for the use of CV measures

also would be difficult to formulate. Therefore, it seems

premature to attempt to define a cut-off point between

"fixed" and "variable," when further quantitative research

could answer questions dealing with motor pattern variation.

To obtain some measure of stereotypy, I took motion

picture films of nonagonistic movements and agonistic

interactions of martins. The position measurements were

taken as outlined in Figure 1. At this stage of the

analysis, I did not classify movements into the display

categories, since this would have biased the results (see

section on description of displays). That is, some of the

movements of the body and limbs that occurred in agonistic

situations were not clear "head presentation" or "body

extension" displays. Nevertheless, all movements were

included in the analysis, making the data more confusing









than if cleaned up by exclusion of patterns that "did not

fit." In Table 1, the means, standard deviations, and

coefficients of variability of the final position and

duration of movements of the different motor patterns are

prestned. In Table 2, the differences in the variances of

the movements were tested using the c statistic for the

final position and duration of movements.

As shown in Table 2, the final posture of the body for

movements executed during agonistic interactions was signif-

icantly less variable (more stereotyped) than the final

posture of the body during nonagonistic interactions such as

during locomotion or loafing. The speed of movement also

was significantly less variable for agonistic body move-

ments. The final posture of the head during aggressive and

appeasement interactions was significantly less variable

than the posture of head movements performed during non-

agonistic situations. For the tail movements, the differ-

ences in position variance were significant, while

differences in duration of tail movements were not signif-

icant. I found the final position of the wing to be less

variable in aggressive interactions than the final position

of wing movements involved in nonagonistic situations. The

final position of the wings during appeasement interactions

was significantly less stereotyped. There was no difference

in the speed of wing movement during either agonistic or

nonagonistic situations. It was important that the movement

with the highest degree of stereotypy, that of the bill,









Table 1. Comparisons of Agonistic and Nonagonistic Body
and Limb Movement, Final Position, and Duration of
Movements in Seconds.



Final position
(degrees) Duration
N Mean SD CV Mean SD CV


Purple Martin
Body-nonagonistic 50 42.2 11.2 26.5 6.7 2.1 31.3
Body-aggressive 31 22.9 0.84 3.6 2.5 0.08 3.2
Body-appeasement 35 90.3 6.4 7.1 2.8 0.29 10.3
Head-nonagonistic 50 70.5 28.6 40.5 1.3 0.67 50.3
Head-aggressive 31 39.2 5.1 13.0 0.66 0.05 7.5
Head-appeasement 35 86.7 6.4 7.3 1.0 0.11 10.8
Bill-nonagonistic 50 75.4 32.3 42.8 2.4 0.79 31.9
Bill-aggressive 31 28.6 1.5 5.2 0.78 0.12 15.3
Bill-appeasement 35 112.5 4.5 4.0 0.85 0.09 10.5
Tail-nonagonistic 50 26.0 18.9 72.6 3.1 1.6 50.6
Tail-aggressive 31 30.6 4.8 15.6 0.81 0.06 7.4
Tail-appeasement 35 24.1 3.9 16.2 1.2 0.09 7.2
Wing-nonagonistic 50 41.8 17.5 41.8 2.7 0.89 32.9
Wing-aggressive 31 36.8 5.3 14.4 0.34 0.05 14.7
Wing-appeasement 35 47.4 7.0 14.7 0.79 0.08 10.1

Gray-breasted Martin
Body-nonagonistic 32 40.1 11.2 16.7 5.3 1.8 33.9
Body-aggressive 17 20.7 0.94 4.5 2.4 0.09 3.7
Body-appeasement 21 92.6 7.3 7.8 2.6 0.23 8.8
Head-nonagonistic 32 68.4 21.5 31.4 1.7 0.71 41.7
Head-aggressive 17 38.4 4.9 12.7 0.72 0.08 11.1
Head-appeasement 21 86.5 7.2 8.3 1.3 0.16 12.3
Bill-nonagonistic 32 77.1 29.3 38.0 2.1 0.85 40.4
Bill-aggressive 17 27.0 1.4 5.1 0.66 0.11 16.6
Bill-appeasement 21 110.3 6.1 5.5 0.91 0.07 7.6
Tail-nonagonistic 32 27.2 18.6 68.3 4.4 2.5 56.8
Tail-aggressive 17 31.5 5.3 16.8 0.78 0.06 7.6
Tail-appeasement 21 23.7 4.1 17.3 1.7 0.08 4.7
Wing-nonagonistic 32 42.9 19.2 44.8 2.5 0.70 28.0
Wing-aggressive 17 37.8 5.0 13.2 0.41 0.05 12.1
Wing-appeasement 21 45.2 7.8 17.3 0.67 0.07 10.4

Caribbean Martin
Body-nonagonistic 12 39.7 16.1 40.5 5.9 2.2 37.2
Body-aggressive 5 22.6 0.79 3.4 2.4 0.07 2.9
Body-appeasement 7 87.5 6.8 7.7 3.0 0.29 9.6
Head-nonagonistic 12 70.6 27.1 38.3 1.5 0.68 45.3
Head-aggressive 5 39.8 4.8 12.1 0.85 0.09 10.6
Head-appeasement 7 85.5 5.7 6.6 1.4 0.17 12.1


Continued









Table 1. Continued.


Final position
(degrees) Duration
N Mean SD CV Mean SD CV


Bill-nonagonistic 12 74.9 31.3 41.7 2.1 0.83 39.5
Bill-aggressive 5 27.3 1.7 6.2 0.98 0.14 14.2
Bill-appeasement 7 113.6 5.6 4.9 0.63 0.05 7.9
Tail-nonagonistic 12 27.5 15.6 56.7 4.2 2.1 50.0
Tail-aggressive 5 32.1 5.2 16.2 0.56 0.08 14.2
Tail-appeasement 7 25.3 4.3 16.9 1.5 0.16 10.6
Wing-nonagonistic 12 40.9 13.2 32.2 2.6 1.1 42.3
Wing-aggressive 5 34.6 4.5 13.0 0.48 0.07 14.5
Wing-appeasement 7 45.2 6.6 14.6 0.89 0.13 14.6









Table 2. Comparisons of Variances of Agonistic and Non-
agonistic Movements.



Final Position Duration
c ratio p c ratio p


Purple Martin
Body
Aggressive-nonagonistic 3.46 <0.05 4.06 <0.05
Appeasement-nonagonistic 3.17 <0.05 3.71 <0.05
Head
Aggressive-nonagonistic 2.59 <0.05 2.68 <0.05
Appeasement-nonagonistic 3.04 <0.05 3.21 <0.05
Bill
Aggressive-nonagonistic 2.35 <0.05 2.83 <0.05
Appeasement-nonagonistic 2.97 <0.05 3.17 <0.05
Tail
Aggressive-nonagonistic 2.86 <0.05 0.37 <0.05
Appeasement-nonagonistic 3.54 <0.05 1.23 <0.05
Wing
Aggressive-nonagonistic 3.72 <0.05 1.17 <0.05
Appeasement-nonagonistic 0.87 <0.05 1.34 <0.05

Gray-breasted Martin
Body
Aggressive-nonagonistic 3.27 <0.05 3.34 <0.05
Appeasement-nonagonistic 3.09 <0.05 2.96 <0.05
Head
Aggressive-nonagonistic 2.78 <0.05 3.94 <0.05
Appeasement-nonagonistic 3.35 <0.05 3.82 <0.05
Bill
Aggressive-nonagonistic 4.02 <0.05 2.72 <0.05
Appeasement-nonagonistic 3.12 <0.05 3.69 <0.05
Tail
Aggressive-nonagonistic 3.43 <0.05 0.32 <0.05
Appeasement-nonagonistic 2.91 <0.05 0.75 <0.05
Wing
Aggressive-nonagonistic 2.74 <0.05 1.06 <0.05
Appeasement-nonagonistic 1.23 <0.05 0.74 <0.05

Caribbean Martin
Body
Aggressive-nonagonistic 3.25 <0.05 2.76 <0.05
Appeasement-nonagonistic 2.95 <0.05 2.62 <0.05
Head
Aggressive-nonagonistic 4.21 <0.05 2.67 <0.05
Appeasement-nonagonistic 3.54 <0.05 3.12 <0.05


Continued









Table 2. Continued.


Final Position
c ratio p


Duration
c ratio p


Bill
Aggressive-nonagonistic
Appeasement-nonagonistic
Tail
Aggressive-nonagonistic
Appeasement-nonagonistic
Wing
Aggressive-nonagonistic
Appeasement-nonagonistic


3.72 <0.05
2.65 <0.05

3.06 <0.05
3.39 <0.05

2.86 <0.05
1.37 <0.05


2.83 <0.05
3.16 <0.05

0.95 <0.05
0.46 <0.05

1.02 <0.05
1.53 <0.05









also was the movement that effected the greatest change in

the behavior of the recepient martin in all three species

(see section on analysis of displays).

In addition to data on variability of movement, the

films also provide information on other differences between

display movements and nondisplay movements in Progne. As

noted by McKinney (1975), exaggeration of one component of a

movement may occur during ritualization. When comparing the

forward movement of the body during agonistic and nonagon-

istic situations, the body was greater than the normal

position in both final position (230 from the substrate

compared to 420 average for nonagonistic movements) and

degrees of arc traversed from the perpendicular (average 67

for aggressive movements, average 480 for walking move-

ments). However, the range of nondisplay movements was

greater than that of display movements. Similarly, the

average final positions of the head and bill were greater

for aggressive display movements than for nondisplay move-

ments (Tables 1 and 2). During appeasement displays, the

body, head, and bill were raised laterally to a position

1150 15 up from the dorsal-ventral axis of the bird's body.

The final position of the body, head, and bill also were

significantly higher in degrees from the substrate in

appeasement situations than for movements involved in

loafing or alert watching (Tables 1 and 2).

Another characteristic of ritualized movements men-

tioned by Morris (1966) was the "freezing" of components of









the movements. For example, in the movements concerned with

walking, the number of frames of film showing the PM body,

head, and bill in the final position was very small (18-

25 frames). In contrast, the head was held in the forward

position between 2.7 and 3.5 seconds (49-63 frames), while

the body was held in the forward position between 4.2 and

6.4 seconds (75-115 frames) for aggressive displays. During

appeasement displays, the head was held away from an

opponent between 3.4 and 4.7 seconds (61-85 frames), while

the body was held in the outward position between 4.9 and

7.1 seconds (88-128 frames).

Morris (1966) noted changes in the speed of execution

of movements as another characteristic of ritualization.

For all three species studied, the agonistic movements of

the body, head, and bill were performed more rapidly than

general locomotory movements of those limbs (Tables 1 and

2). For example, during PM aggressive interactions, the

head was raised forward at 0.66 0.05 seconds compared to

1.33 0.67 seconds during nonagonistic movements (c=2.59,

p < 0.05; Table 2). It is important to note that there was

no significant difference in the speed of movement for wing

and/or tail movements. This fact suggested that movement to

the final posture was not as important as the final posture

itself. Similar results were found for GM and CM (Table 1

and 2).









Discussion

There are few, if any, concepts that are more central

to the development of modern ethological ideas than that of

the fixed action pattern (for reviews see Barlow, 1977;

Eibl-Eibesfeldt, 1975; Krebs & Davies, 1981; Schleidt,

1974). Stereotyped motor patterns in vertebrates usually

serve either for communication or for locomotion. Moreover,

Schleidt (1974) suggested that actions that occurred at a

very high frequency and/or were adapted to deal with uniform

situations or objects such as pecking, biting, swallowing,

chewing, digging, and preening also should be highly stereo-

typed. Although locomotor behavior exhibited little varia-

tion within short time periods (at least in vertebrates), it

demonstrated considerable plasticity over longer intervals.

In contrast, displays that subserved communication were

nearly invariant over much of an animal's adult life span.

Since the idea of fixed action patterns generated

considerable controversy during the 1950s and subsequent

decades (Alcock, 1975; Lehrman, 1953, 1970; Lorenz, 1965),

one might be surprised to find that there have actually been

very few detailed quantitative analyses of actions that have

been categorized as fixed (Barlow, 1977).

Some displays were clearly very fixed when a single

individual was studied. Wiley (1973) measured the time

between the first swish and the first snap in 45 successive

repetitions of the strut display of an individual sage









grouse (Centocercus uropasianus). The average interval was

1.55 seconds and the standard deviation was 0.011 seconds

giving a CV of 0.7%. Stamps and Barlow's (1973) study of

Anolis lizard behavior showed that display behavior can be

extremely stereotyped. Measurements of the durations of

elements in the signature bob display of individual lizards

yielded CV's ranging from 2.5 to 9.5%.

Variation between individuals tended to be greater. As

Barlow (1977) pointed out, the displays of the goldeneye

(Bucephala clangula) studied by Dane, Woldott, and Drury

(1959), and often quoted as essentially invariant, mostly

showed CV's of 10 to 20%. However, the bowspirt, nodding,

and ticking had CV's of 17.14%, 72.22%, and 26.3%, respec-

tively. Figures taken from Dane and van der Kloot (1964)

for the highly stereotyped head-throw display yielded a CV

of 7.2%. Three measures of duration taken from the signa-

ture bob of Anolis by Stamps and Barlow (1973) gave CV's

ranging from 11.5 to 39% while those for three morphological

features were 10 to 12%. Hazlett (1972) studied the varia-

bility of movements of the chelipeds and ambulatory legs of

spider crabs (Microphyrs bicornutus) and found CV's never

less than 10%. Nonetheless, the displays were sufficiently

different from the non-display behaviors for both humans and

spider crabs to tell them apart. These attempts to quantify

the concept of the fixed action pattern demonstrated that,

although some displays showed relative fixity, ideas about

invariant stereotypy were not supported.









In the present study, the agonistic display movements

of martins were shown to be more stereotyped than the

non-display movements from which presumably they may have

evolved. Of course, this conclusion, even when based on

repeated observation of single-frame analysis film, still

remains rather subjective. The posture and the duration of

movements, however, were the best criteria of stereotypy or

variability that could be measured objectively.

If body and limb positions were assumed to be an index

of stereotypy, it was encouraging to find that the various

filmed actions were very uniform. I found marked stereotypy

when comparing different males while using position or

duration measurements of displays. For example, the

31 observations of body position during an aggressive

display had a mean of 2.990 from the subtrate and a standard

deviation of only 0.84. However, there were some body

movements (such as those of the wing and tail) which

appeared in a relatively constant form, but which varied in

duration. A detailed analysis showed that this variation

was produced by a difference in the speed of the movement at

times, while at other times by the variable length of the

pauses at the beginning and end of the active part of the

movements themselves. If the pauses were disregarded, the

duration the body was held in an aggressive display became

5.7 seconds with a standard deviation of 0.09 seconds.

Therefore, the measurements the movements' duration con-

firmed the impression of stereotypy. Thus, display









movements were distinguishable from no display movements by

exaggeration of movement (body movement forward to the

horizontal plane), exaggeration of one component of the

posture (open bill), and by the development of stereotypy.

In summary, there appear to be extremely few, if any,

behavior patterns that are absolutely fixed (e.g., CV = 0%

or even less than 1.0%). Indeed, according to Eibi-

Eibesfeldt (1975), the implication of absolute morphological

rigidity of displays was unfortunate and not originally

intended. It would be misleading to concentrate solely on

attempting to "prove" stereotypy or "fixity" without dealing

with patent variability. Various factors may favor vari-

ability in the characteristics of displays. For example,

variable aspects may be anti-monotony devices (Hartshorne,

1973), since too much stereotypy may cause the receiver to

habituate to the signal before responding in a manner

appropriate for the sender. Barlow (1968) suggested that it

might be more correct to drop the word "fixed" and substi-

tute the word "modal" (to refer to the most frequently

occurring form of a given act). The term modal action

pattern was meant to embody the idea that, while not

strictly fixed, these behavior patterns could be identified

in a reliable statistical way. Barlow's point is an impor-

tant one when one's main interest is in choosing categories

for data collection rather than in a particular theoretical

framework. Quantitative data from this study supported

Barlow's suggestion.









The frequent occurrence of behavior patterns having the

following characteristics can be used when describing modal

action patterns: (1) they are species-typical, (2) the

component movements that make them up occur together either

simultaneously or sequentially with a high degree of pre-

dictability and (3) they are repeatedly recognizable. In

addition to the terminological problems, it is important to

stress that the "meaning" of the value of CV's will

undoubtedly vary from species to species and from act to

act.



Description of Visual Displays

The following is a list and description of the visual

displays seen during the course of this study. Similarities

between the displays of the three species suggested homol-

ogous relationships and permitted a parallel categorization.

The names of the displays were chosen to be as descriptive

as possible without implying motivation or function to the

behavior patterns.

However, before a discussion of agonistic behavior can

be undertaken, the normal body position of martins must be

described so that it may be compared with the principal

display patterns (Figure 2). All three martin species sat

in an upright position during nonagonistic situations. The

neck was withdrawn, the bill was held approximately horizon-

tal, and the feathers were relaxed. The wings were held

close to the body and the tail was stationary.












































Figure 2.


S C.









Postures associated with loafing or inactivity:
A. Purple Martin; B. Gray-breasted Martin;
C. Caribbean Martin.









Head Forward Thrust

In all three species of martins, the Head Forward

Thrust display and its variants were found to be the chief

displays preceding attack. In the most common posture, a

bird assumed a horizontal crouch with the plumage sleeked

and the bill pointed at the opponent. This display preceded

an attack and appeared in territorial defense during the

approach of a potential intruder.

Purple Martin. The display was divided into two cate-

gories, the low-intensity Head Forward Thrust and the

high-intensity Head Forward Thrust (Figure 3A dnd 3B). In

the low-intensity Head Forward Thrust, the closed bill was

directed horizontally toward the opponent (92% of film

records, 8% open bill; n=29), the neck was partially

extended (96%, 4% retracted), and the legs were flexed (98%)

with the body held in a horizontal position (94%, 6%

upright). The feathers of the crest, breast, and back were

sleeked (92%, 8% crest raised), with the wing and tail

feathers continually flicked (100%). This posture was

maintained for at least 4 seconds (x = 4.9 seconds of field

records; n=63). The response of an intruder was to advance

no further (81% of field records; n=218) or leave (19%).

Cher (p. 111) and Chortle (p. 116) calls often accompanied

this display (70% of field records; n=227).

Since a bird giving this display most often remained

stationary (65% of field records, attacked 31%, retreated

4%, n=379), the display may be interpreted as suggesting a






-I


A B


C D


F G


Figure 3.


Displays associated with threat behavior:
A. low intensity Head Forward Thrust (Purple
Martin); B. high intensity Head Forward Thrust
(Purple Martin); C. low intensity Head Forward
Thrust (Gray-breasted Martin); D. high intensity
Head Forward Thrust (Gray-breasted Martin);
E. variation of the high intensity Head Foward
Thrust (Gray-breasted Martin); F. low intensity
Head Forward Thrust (Caribbean Martin); G. high
intensity Head Forward Thrust (Caribbean Martin).









weak tendency to attack. Thirty-six percent of all agon-

istic encounters ended with the winner showing low-intensity

Head Forward thrust (n=153). Sixty-four percent showed no

visual display (n=153).

In the high-intensity Head Forward Thrust, the bill was

held closed (98% of film records, 2% open bill; n=24) in

line with the opponent (100%), and the body was always

horizontal (100%). The signaler sleeked the feathers of its

crest and body (98%, 2% just crest), extended its neck (91%,

9% retraced), and moved forward in the Lunge, striking the

target bird on its head or body (38%) if it failed to

retreat (62%).

In 94% of film records (n=18) of high intensity encoun-

ters that preceded the Lunge, birds held the wings away from

the side with the primaries backward and with the wing and

tail feathers stationary (6% of the time wings against body

and tail and wing feathers flicked), and gave Hee-hee calls

(p. 87). In 79% of the field records (n=379), the high-

intensity display was followed by the opponent retreating or

remaining stationary (21% returned the attack).

Low-intensity Head Forward Thrust was directed by males

toward both males (83% of field records; n=441) and females

(17%). However, high-intensity Head Forward Thrust by males

was never directed toward females. Both head Forward

displays occurred 89% of the time at the boundaries of

territories when resident males were less than 20 cm apart

(n=217). The displays ceased 97% of the time when one bird









returned to the center of his territory or entered his

nesting compartment.

If two neighboring males showed either of the head

forward displays later in the season while young were being

fed, only 17% of these encounters ended in aggressive

interaction (n=133). Most displays (83%) ended with the

birds remaining motionless and at least one bird bill-wiping

(n=97).

Gray-breasted Martin. GM assumed low- and high-

intensity Head Forward Thrust displays similar to those of

PM, but in GM these displays were more elaborate. In the

low-intensity Head Forward Thrust, the displaying individual

oriented on a perch so that the axis of its body ran paral-

lel with the surface on which it was perched (87% of film

records, 13% upright; n=29), the neck was extended (93%,

7% retracted), and the wings and tail were flicked upward

repeatedly (95%, 5% remained still), making the bird appear

larger than normal (Figure 3C). Moreover, the feathers of

the cheek and crest were raised (96%, 4% sleeked). This

component of the display was noticeably absent in the PM low

intensity display posture.

At high intensity, the GM held the body parallel to the

surface and thrust the head and bill forward below the level

of the back (94% of film records, 6% other body variations;

n=16), held the wings just free of the flank feathers, and

partly spread the primaries below the line of the tail (88%,

12% above the tail line; Figure 3D).









Zurr calls (p. 97) were given by the birds in low-

intensity thrust and Zwat calls (p. 96) were given during

high intensity thrust. High-intensity Head Forward Thrust

in the GM, as in PM, was never directed toward females.

A slightly different variation of the high-intensity

Head Forward Thrust seen in the PM was observed in the GM

(Figure 3E). During this display variant, the neck was

retracted (88% of film records, 12% extended; n=32), the

legs extended (91%, 9% retracted), the bill opened (94%,

6% closed), the body feathers sleeked (100%), and the

carpals raised as the wrist was rotated outward (100%).

Birds that gave the carpal raised variation always attacked

opponents (n=32).

Caribbean Martin. As in the PM and GM, the Head

Forward Thrust in the CM varied in intensity and was divided

into two categories (Figure 3F and 3G). In the

low-intensity Head Forward Thrust, the closed bill was

directed toward the opponent (99% of the field records,

1% directed away; n=32), the neck was not extended (84%,

16% extended), the legs were flexed (85%, 15% retracted),

and the body was held in a horizontal posture with the wings

and tail continually flicked (100%).

In high-intensity thrust, the bill pointed straight out

(93% of field records, 7% bill to side; n=47), and the neck

was stretched (100%). At times, the wings were rotated

(12%) as in the carpal raised variation of the GM. On the

part of the attacking bird, the low intensity thrust was









accompanied by Wheet calls (p. 101), whereas the high

intensity thrust was accompanied by Kweet calls (p. 103).



Gaping

Gaping in all three species was initiated by any

conspecific's movement close to the territory boundary. The

body posture was very similar to that of the Head Forward

Thrust (Figure 4A), except that the bill was held wide open

for two or three seconds (PM: x=2.8 sec., n=31; GM:

x=2.6 sec., n=30; CM: x=3.4 sec., n=13). The body was

inclined forward from the pelvis (91% of the field records,

9% more upright; n=60), and the neck extended forward

(100%). The wings were held by the side of the body (85%,

n=60), but were sometimes spread out (for balance) if the

martin moved forward (15%). Both sexes used the Gape. The

Gape may be silent or accompanied by a Rattle call (p. 91)

in the PM and a Rattle call (p. 100) in the GM. CM appear

to gape silently.

In all three species, mutual Gaping between mates was

common early in the breeding season (Figure 4B). This

behavior was observed mainly at the nest hole when a male or

female landed near its mate. One bird often took the offen-

sive while its mate was defensive. In offensive Gaping, the

martin leaned forward with the most weight on its phalanges.

It sometimes sidled forward in small steps or remained

motionless. In defensive Gaping, the body was held back,


















































Figure 4. Displays associated with threat behavior:
A. Gaping; B. Gaping between mates;
C. Defensive Gaping; D. Lunge.









the neck withdrawn; the bird sometimes moved backward or

turned aside while returning the Gape (Figure 4C).



Bill-Snapping

Bill-snapping in all three species consisted of loud

clicking produced as the mandibles were forcibly brought

together. This display was given from the head Forward

Thrust (72%, n=25) or Lunge (28%). The body was held

horizontally (89%, n=25) or slightly downward (11%) and the

bill was snapped as an audible reinforcement of threat.

Bill-snapping was used by martins in their territories

(87%, n=25), but occasionally occurred outside the terri-

tories (for example, when a martin was approached too

closely while resting on a perch, 13% of the time). It was

directed at strangers moving past the territory (10%, n=20)

or at neighbors moving about in adjacent territories (90%,

n=20). It also was directed at interspecific intruders,

such as House Sparrows (Passer domesticus, n=31) and Star-

lings (Sturnus vulgaris, n=13). Bill-snapping also was used

in conjunction with Gaping in both interspecific inter-

actions and interactions between members of a mated pair.

This display was possibly a ritualized intention to bite.



Lunge

In all three species, when a high-intensity Head

Forward Thrust did not dislodge an opponent, the attacker

frequently proceeded directly at the opponent. The









high-intensity Head Forward Thrust led to the Lunge in 58%

of field records for the PM (42% remain inplace, n=207), 32%

in the GM (68% remain inplace, n=193), and 47% in the CM

(53% remain inplace, n=12). The most conspicuous feature of

the Lunge was the forward movement. In this display, the

bird moved toward the stimulus object with a sudden rush and

then stopped, with head and neck outstretched, and the bill

directed at the opponent and slightly agape (100%,

Figure 4D). At the extension of the Lunge the wings were

twisted upward over the tail, and in 36% (n=309) of all

observations the mandibles were closed, producing a snap

that was audible at distances greater than 10 m (64%

produced no sound).

The Lunge was an attack that was generally sufficient

to make an opponent flee (Tables 6 & 7). If the opponent

failed to retreat, a fight resulted. The Lunge merged into

a fight in 19% of field records in the PM (81% the opponent

retreated, n=201), 11% in the GM (89% opponent retreated,

n=194), and 15% in the CM (85% opponent retreated, n=16).



High-Up Displays

High-Up displays were considered to be retreat behavior

because they were directed away from an attacking bird and

were given by a retreating bird. The High-Up postures were

divided into two broad categories: Withdraw High-Up and

Alert High-Up. Alert and Withdraw High-Up displays were

performed by both sexes.









The Withdraw High-Up display included the turning away

or lateral body presentation, avoidance, or fleeing of a

martin relative to the approach of another individual. The

feathers of the body and head were erect, the head was held

above the horizontal plane, the bill pointed downward, and

the neck held backward (Figure 5A). During a territorial

encounter the bird showed Withdraw High-Up followed by

staying (PM: 56%, n=380; GM: 61%, n=220; CM: to few

records) or retreating (PM: 44%, GM: 39%, CM: to few

records) or retreating (PM: 44%, GM: 39%, CM: to few

records), but in all three species the birds never attacked.

Purple Martin. A PM may show Withdraw High-Up from an

opponent in several different ways depending on the

agonistic encounter. A retreating martin performed one of

several behavior patterns, which included rocking back on

the tarsi while retracting the neck (93% of film records,

7% extended the neck; n=31), leaning to one side (78% of

film records, 12% straight ahead, n=31), turning the head or

the head and body away from the aggressor (84% of film

records, 16% toward the opponent, n=31), sidling away, and

flying away from the aggressor. Sidling, sideways movement

either toward or away from another individual, usually took

place during periods when the martins were sitting on the

birdhouse or on a telephone wire. In some cases the head

feathers were raised for a few seconds during sidling

movements.

















A











B














C





Figure 5. Displays associated with appeasement behavior:
A. Withdraw High-Up; B. Alert High-Up; C. White
Badge Signal.









I saw the Withdraw High-Up posture given in the follow-

ing contexts: (1) by a female when sitting on the house in

the presence of a male other than her own mate; (2) by a

bird shifting its position when another bird had landed

nearby; (3) between members of a pair when they were near

each other and either bird moved toward the other; and

(4) when one bird was threatened by another bird with a Head

Forward Thrust.

Gray-breasted Martin. In the GM the Withdraw High-Up

was not as elaborate as in the PM, and often appeared as an

alert posture seen in many birds immediately before they

ever flew in alarm, after a supplanting attack, or in birds

that had just avoided an attack.

The Withdraw High-Up of the GM involved raising the

feathers (82% of film records, 18% relaxed; n=ll), hunching

the body (91%, 9% upright, n=ll), and assuming a generally

rounded appearance. This also was in many respects the

opposite of the Head Forward Thrust, and suggested that the

bird was avoiding an aggressive encounter (see section on

analysis of displays).

Caribbean Martin. Withdraw High-Up in the CM fre-

quently involved a turning away from the dominant individual

(88% of field records; 12% turned halfway; n=27). The bird

stood with the body vertical (92%, 8% not upright, n=27),

neck extended and bill pointed upward (96%, 4% bill pointed

down, n=27), so that the breast was exposed and the head was

held rigid. The tail was not spread (96%). Several times









males in boundary encounters perched on palms or thatched

roofs with their bills turned away from their neighbors.

Alert High-Up postures were given in the presence of

alarming or novel stimuli, such as those eliciting loco-

motion. In all three species, when a bird suddenly detected

a predator, a loud harsh noise, or a sudden change in

movement of another animal or object, the activity in which

it was involved immediately ceased. During the Alert

High-Up the head was raised or directed toward the stimulus

and the neck extended out (Figure 4B).

In the Alert High-Up posture the bird stood erect with

compressed plumage and with the head and bill in line with

the rest of the body. The wings were held close to the body

and the legs became very straight. The birds remained in

this exaggerated posture for about four seconds, longer than

in any other display (PM: x=4.3 seconds, n=132; GM:

x=5.1 seconds, n=75; CM: x=4.5 seconds, n=23). Once the

alarm stimulus was know, birds of all three species flicked

their wings and tails and raised their crest feathers for

the length of the disturbance. Frequently the PM, GM, and

CM uttered Cher (p. 83, Cheur (p. 94), and Zwoot (p. 100)

calls respectively.



Claiming-Reclaiming

Males of all three species had a display which attrac-

ted females and advertised territory ownership. Claiming-

Reclaiming involved a flight whereby the male attracted his









mate or potential mate to the nest site (Johnston & Hardy,

1962). PM males flew from the breeding area in a wide arc

(20-70 meter diameter, n=278), which could vary in flight

path, circle size, duration, and flight posture. Besides

following a circular course (10-30 meter diameter, n=21),

CMs also flew a figure-8 (n=9) or a double lap circle

(n=15). GMs showed both circular flights (25-60 meter

diameter, n=17) and short direct flights (n=29) in which a

male came close to striking a sitting female before return-

ing to the breeding site. On these 29 occasions, GM males

flew so close to their mates that the female was forced to

either retreat or fly from the perch. GM females responded

to these two kinds of flight encounters by either following

the male to his nest hole (n=26), moving to another section

of steel pipe (n=16), or leaving the area (n=4).

A Claiming-Reclaiming display ended abruptly in all

three species with the male returning to the nest site to

repeatedly enter and emerge from the nest hole (PM:

x=2.6 bouts of emerging and entering, n=38; GM: x=2.7,

n=29; CM: x=1.3, n=8). This behavior ceased when the male

thrust his head out of the entrance hole and sang several

songs in succession (PM: x=2.1 songs per bout, n=238; GM:

x=1.8, n=25; CM: x=2.8, n=39). At the end of the song in

PMs and GMs, but not in CMs, the bill was opened and the

yellow mouth lining was flashed in stark contrast to the

rest of the bird's head. CMs did not end songs with an open

bill (see discussion under vocalizations).









White Badge Signal

Badges are characteristics of an animal's appearance

that have been modified to be informative "adornments"

(Rohwer 1982). Badges are more persistent than displays,

because displays last only as long as the behavior is

sustained. Both sexes of all three species of martins had a

patch of white feathers on the anterior flank that normally

was concealed by the dark feathers of the middorsal region

of the spinal tract (Johnson and Hardy 1962, this study).

These bold plumage markings can be seen at the level of the

tertial feathers on either side of the midline whenever

birds preened the head or mantle (Figure 6C). Size and

shape of the white badge varied considerably among individ-

uals of the three species. The white patch was highly

organized, contrasted with the dark background feathers, and

could be displayed or covered at will; thus, Johnston and

Hardy (1962) hypothesized that in the PM the white badge

functioned as a social signal associated with preening. All

my observations supported this hypothesis for the CM and GM.

My observations for these species showed that martins

displayed the badge only after preening (65%, n=85) or

during sunning postures (35%, n=85).

The white badge also appeared to signal staying inplace

behavior. Birds showing the white badge, as a class,

remained stationary much more frequently than birds that did
2
not exhibit the badge (x2=26, df=32; p < 0.05). The badge

also functioned as an appeasement signal by inhibiting









agonistic encounters and permitting close contact among
2
loafing birds (x =23, df=24; p < 0.05). Several aspects of

martin behavior supported this interpretation: (1) when the

badge was uncovered, birds were preening or had completed

preening and were loafing or sunning (n=85); (2) partici-

pants were positioned in parallel or at angles of less than

90 degrees where there was little prolonged direct front

orientation or approach (87%, 13% frontal orientation,

n=85), and (3) at no time was the badge revealed in any

agonistic situation (100%, n=85).

Similar signaling badges that function to inhibit

behavioral interactions have been described for young Water

Rails, Rallus aquaticus (Lorenz 1952), White-necked Ravens,

Corvus cryptoleucus (Johnston 1958), and numerous Accipters

(Hafner & Hafner, 1977).



Fighting

Fighting in all three species usually was associated

with defense of a breeding site or mate-guarding. Fighting

was most frequent among males early in the breeding season.

At these times exploration of nest sites resulted in much

movement in the breeding areas, and males trespassed while

courting or watching another male's mate. Fighting among

females occurred only during pair formation, when a female

crossed a territorial boundary. Fighting did not result in

noticeable body damage, and in most cases was of short









duration (although see Allen & Nice, 1952; Bent, 1942;

Brown, 1977).

Purple Martin. The circumstance for an encounter that

led to a fight was trespassing by a nonresident male onto

another male's territory. Of 256 encounters between

adjacent territorial males, 249 started when a male

approached a neighbor's mate as she was perching at the

birdhouse or gathering nesting material. The remaining

seven encounters resulted from males exploring the birdhouse

and in which attraction to a female did not seem involved.

When a male trespassed onto another bird's territory,

the owner adopted an agonistic posture directed toward, or

attacked, the moving male. The following examples of

encounters between adult males White and Yellow at the

Gainesville Country Club nesting colony are given to illus-

trate some of the sequences of events that fighting can

typically take. The flow diagram in Figure 6 is not com-

plete, but is intended only as a suggestion of the course

agonistic behavior may take early in the breeding season.

Encounters of more than two birds were difficult to follow

or record accurately and were therefore not included.

Male White was standing on the porch outside his nest

compartment in an upright position. Male Yellow was in

flight returning to the house and was about 10 m from the

house. On noticing Yellow, White started calling in low-

intensity Head Forward Thrust directed toward approaching

male Yellow (n=51). When Yellow landed about 10 cm away,









3

:1 i.

.-J L C
o,


*o
Sm

9. -3.
3
3




^ n



- 5
:2ci









both birds bill-thrusted toward each other and then turned

away, presenting their sides. If however, Yellow approached

White, White usually responded in one of several ways:

(1) White flew away (n=5). This was sometimes followed by

chasing behavior (n=2), or Yellow landed in the spot just

vacated (n=3); (2) White entered his nest compartment (n=4)

or shifted his position on the perch a few centimeters away

and gave a low-intensity Head Forward Thrust. After a few

seconds, the posturing ended and the birds remained perched

a few centimeters apart; (3) White remained perched, but did

not posture; Yellow came in and attacked (n=17). A fight

ended with White flying off and Yellow chasing after him

(n=14). On only three out of 17 occasions did Yellow fly

off leaving White in the same position; (4) White remained

perched, and immediately showed high-intensity Head Forward

Thrust (n=15). Yellow then did one of three things: (a)

attacked-with a fight ensuing (n=3), (b) retreated and

perched more than 10 cm away (n=10), or (c) withdrew less

than 16 cm away with both birds giving Withdraw High-Up

(n=2); and (5) White flew up and met Yellow in the air

(n=3). During these fights both birds were facing each

other, striking with their bills, wings, and feet until they

struck the ground, whereupon the fight ended.

Once nesting began, if the encounter took place in

front of the nest compartments, fights seemed to follow

two less elaborate patterns. A resident adult male some-

times landed on the perch in front of his nesting room, in









which case he either advanced and immediately engaged the

intruder in fight (61%, n=129); or the resident male entered

his room, and poked his head out and called or sang (39% of

these observations). The bird then either emerged to perch

in front of the nest room or remained stationary in the nest

room aperture.

Gray-breasted Martin. In Trinidad where nearest pairs

of GM often nested up to 20 m apart, male GM flew directly

at their opponents, forcing the attacked bird to move, on

59 occasions. The attacked bird responded in one of three

ways: (1) it flew immediately away, with the attacker

flying after and chasing it (n=24), (2) it shifted its

position a few feet away (n=26), or (3) it flew up and met

the attacker in mid-air (n=9).

Two forms of fighting were observed in GM. One was the

aerial fight in which two males ascended about 10 m from the

perching pipes, each had a foothold on the other combined

with feather-pulling and wing-beating. The birds would then

descend, not separating until striking the ground or enter-

ing the water, at which point all fighting ceased (n=37).

The other type of fight was a Lunge on the pipe perches in

which the two birds pecked each other's heads and body areas

until one individual broke off in retreat (n=68). A winner

adopted an erect posture, calling as it sat on the spot

vacated a few seconds before. The bird then began preening

to rearrange feathers that may have become displaced during

the attack.









Caribbean Martins

Fights of the CM did not differ appreciably from those

described for PM and GM, except that fighting occurred at

greater heights around nest sits in palm fronbs. In Tobago,

I recorded details of 16 intraspecific fights and saw a few

other short agonistic episodes. Less fighting in CM than in

GM and PM may reflect the greater CM minimum interest

distance (> 30 m as opposed to < 20 m in the GM and 10 cm in

the PM). Physical opportunities to interact decreased as

the distance between birds increased.



Analysis of Visual Communication



Sequences in Defense of Territory

The behavior of individual martins consisted of both

individual acts and sequences of acts. A behavioral act was

a display only if it conveyed a signal to another animal and

was specifically adapted for that purpose (see Hinde, 1970;

Krebs & Davies, 1981; Tinbergen, 1952). Only PM and GM

provided sufficient data to permit me to analyze their

visual displays.

In both species, any of the seven displays listed in

Table 3 could occur as an initial response in an interaction

with another martin. Most interactions were brief

(x=2.8 seconds; n=289 field records) and consisted of only

one or two displays. The most frequent initial responses

were low- and high-intensity Head Forward Thrust (PM males:









Table 3. Frequencies of Initial Displays.


(Proportion of total encounters)
Display PM GM PM GM
Male Male Female Female


Low intensity Head Forward 0.25 0.24 0.32 0.43

High intensity Head Forward 0.14 0.18 0.16 0.21

Gaping 0.09 0.09 0.03 0.07

Bill-Shaping 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01

Lunge 0.08 0.06 0.07 0.01

Alert High-Up 0.15 0.19 0.14 0.14

Withdraw High-Up 0.25 0.20 0.26 0.13

Total probability 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Total encounters 1537 1089 86 134









39%, n=1537 field records, females 46%, n=86; GM males:

42%, n=1089 field records, females: 64%, n=134), and Alert

and Withdraw High-Up (PM males: 40%, n=1537 field records,

females: 40%, n=86; GM males: 39%, n=1089 field records,

females: 27%, n=134). The probability of the occurrence of

these responses was increased when the conditions of an

encounter were specified (Table 4). Low-intensity head

Forward Thrust was the most frequent response to a martin

pausing near the territory (PM: 51%, n=291 field records;

GM: 39%, n=257) or to a martin flying by the breeding site

(PM: 28%, n=279; GM: 23%, n=284). Alert High-Up was the

most frequent response to a distant disturbance (PM: 52%,

n=279; GM: 61%, n=284). Withdraw High-Up occurred most

commonly in encounters with neighbors who retaliated in

response to an initial challenge (PM: 54%, n=214; GM: 43%,

n=173). High-intensity Head Forward Thrust, Gaping, and

Bill-snapping occurred less frequently and were responses to

intruders entering or pausing near the territory (See

Table 4). Gaping was followed by a Lunge when the intruder

approached to within bill-striking range. The Lunge also

was used by some martins against neighbors pausing near the

territorial boundary.

The time elapsed since the last encounter and movement

of the stimulus influenced the initial response of martins

(Figure 7A-E). When an intruder approached slowly, a

territorial martin responded with low-intensity Head Forward

Thrust (69%, n=135 field records) or Gaping (31%, n=135














U2

0

SU













4r-l
Ow











zu

0J










4J. t
m*H
-,-IT


O
0


0 tC

U Q
Z


>1

r-A
04
0H

Q


C)

I





C
*0
o


































CO
(-N


















Cn
























CY
o










I-I
i
























co









*0
N

o







0o













o









C









0
4- (


r- o
o o
* C
0 0


(N

C0





(N
CM













0C




C)


OC
L(
























a-4
wo


































* d
O








o











)
























CD
in



















*










--I









.a,


O 0
o o
o o




0 C



C n
o *e









O o

0 o












o o






o*














I



I o
o0 C





C










0-I -0

o o








0 0


I *r



J r
*4 *.


() 4






72

















11-1
cr








LA.






(3(




44-)




4...
01 -











IA .
U S. m
Q- 00. O--- c -


--' 4-- 2 I-- ,- "
3- S- : 1

tiL =1 L a C


LlC L0 C L C-
03C
**--o 0 c W c c



. 3 41 5 ? 4j :3 '0 4-
1 faO 4. S0 S 0



i| 0o S| M


(U F- c C


















cm La.
4- 4n s
r ^^ *r
v ~Ea p,
5~L cs 5~ cs" c









field records; Figure 7A). If the intruder approached sud-

denly, a resident male responded with high-intensity Head

Forward Thrust (86%, n=84 field records) and Bill-snapping

(14%, n=84 field records; Figure 7B). Low-intensity Head

Forward Thrust was followed by high-intensity Head Forward

Thrust when the intruding martin moved closer (Figure 7C).

High-intensity Head Forward Thrust was followed by Lunge

when the rival martin moved away only slightly or slowly

(Figure 7D).

Sometimes the same type of approach elicited different

reactions. Generally this could be attributed to the

previous stimulation of the territorial martin. A male who

had been undisturbed for some time might show only low-

intensity Head Forward Thrust (Figure 7A), whereas a male

who had just repelled a martin at a territorial boundary

reacted more aggressively to the approach of an intruder

(Figure 7E).

Gaping, Bill-snapping, and Withdraw High-Up tended to

occur at the end of sequences rather than at the beginning

(Table 5). Specifically, these displays occurred at the end

of sequences in which Lunge had not been elicited; thus,

they did not precede attack. High-intensity Head Forward

Thrust also occurred at the end of sequences but was

followed by attack when a neighbor approached or entered the

territory (See Tables 6 & 7). Low-intensity Head Forward

Thrust and Alert High-Up occurred at the beginning of

sequences rather than at the end. Both were seldom used









Table 5.


Proportion of Displays Used as Initial Versus
Terminal Responses in Two-Display Sequences.


Position in Sequence

PM GM

Display Begin % End % N Begin % End % N


Low intensity
Head Forward 61 39 131 74 26 124

High intensity
Head Forward 34 76 104 39 61 93

Gaping 18 82 34 22 78 36

Bill-snapping 6 94 28 11 89 20

Lunge 17 83 59 6 94 32

Alert High-Up 81 19 93 92 8 85

Withdraw
High-Up 25 75 142 13 87 69













a,



H

C-



a4
0

s-i
O







4-,
0














Ua,



o
a
.13
















a,

4


c
O1












.5-
O



a



E-4



0


n

a
-,-i
to














C)
a





-Q


rC


C 0 o Co
' cN N m co
r-1 N m


o m r- r- in






T.. rf0 0n 00 0
-1 q:T







-1 oo CN in 0 0N o

r.


CM .0 0 C '>) 0
S Nr N 0 C0
-4 -4 CMN


->1
I*H 4- r3
- O I-rt

(1 0 4-) 0

O I cl

0a *H a
4 e (3
0~ 5


0
I
.,"


a .0


a) 4-)
H- -
F< 3


*-4

>


C >
*H
930





C1
cn0


*H
54
0




O4-

PC




3 O
W4
-Q.

0


rn


H o Co ) m () N m
0o N r- co co






r- 0) ) u un -f a%
-l n (N 4 N a -






(N N 0 (N r Co


U
C





0



0
a









4-4

0

4J
U
14.







a4

+c













14m m 0 I 0 T
00 ( Y )> 0 01 O0







co u N uN co C
Lfr ) r- LO co I O
- 0 ,(N -4I 01






uin -- o I M (1 0o


O
4-1




-H-



4-J
C








,.
C

t,i
(1-




0U











0"


















rd
(i
(2













-4I
c!



irl
(T




4-1






'Tl


tZ C4 s -1 0 0 0 o




n N Cov C CD
m (N 0-
-I


m mn ( CW
o m .0 i-i CN
,-(NI(N


>1
>.,ro 4-1 r






-Ho Ito
r4 -H
(O 0)a

C -,-I


Or -i-ia
.rl ffir


-H O
0





-P -

0) 4-)
-I -,-
<


0

>




,QH
UQ)
-P0


0 )



U2


0



0)0


tt3
0Q)



10


En


0 m (N w C

-1 (N (
Om HNO
OmDrNN









within the stationary attacking range, and thus were seldom

followed by attack.



Relation of Displays to Subsequent Behavior

This analysis was designed to determine if one could

predict what a bird would do depending upon its display.

Using an approach developed by Stokes (1962a, 1962b) and

Balph (1977), I recorded the frequency of the seven displays

and the subsequent reaction of the bird (Tables 6 & 7).

Interactions were considered to have three phases: attack,

when one bird drove the other away; staying, when the two

birds did not move away; and retreat, when a bird moved away

from another in response to an attack.

Tables 6 and 7 give the probabilities of particular

displays leading to attack, retreat, or stay. In this

study, low-intensity Head Forward Thrust indicated that a PM

would subsequently attack 31% of the time (n=379 field

records) and a GM 36% of the time (n=262 field records), but

there was an even higher probability of staying (PM: 65%,

n=379 field records; GM 63%, n=262 field records). In the

PM, high-intensity Head Forward Thrust suggested a transi-

tion between low-intensity Head Forward Thrust and Lunge

since it was associated with probabilities of attack (58%,

n=207 field records) and of staying (38%, n=207 field

records) that were intermediately between those for low-

intensity Head Forward Thrust and Lunge. When high-

intensity Head Forward Thrust occurred in the GM, however









the predominant tendency was to stay (68%, n=193 field

records). A GM attacked from the Gaping position 52% of the

time (n=142 field records) and from the Bill-snapping

position 25% of the time (n=76 field records). Lunge had

the highest probability of being followed by attack in both

species (PM: 100%, n=120 field records, GM: 100%, n=62

field records). Alert High-Up was most often associated

with staying (PM: 78%, n=233 field records; GM: 89%,

n=216 field records), but also had a low probability of

attack (PM: 12%, n=233 field records; GM: 8%, n=216 field

records). A martin showing Withdraw High-Up never attacked

(n=380 field records) and was likely to retreat (44%,

n=380 field records) if approached more closely.

On the few occasions when recipients retaliated (PM:

22 observations, n=1537 field records; GM: 25 observations,

n=1089 field records), the signaler then responded with

continued attack (PM: 73%, n=22 field records; GM: 72%,

n=25 field records) or retreat (PM: 27%, n=22 field

records; GM: 25%, n=25 field records). Most agonistic

encounters were of the attack-retreat kind and once ended

were rarely repeated (PM: 98%; 2% were interactions that

continued, n=280 field records; GM: 96%; 4% were inter-

actions that continued, n=84 field records).



Effectiveness of Displays

To determine the effectiveness of the displays, I

measured the valence of a given display to the behavior of a









rival martin at a territorial boundary. Most encounters

were initiated not because intruders trespassed onto the

territory, but because of their movement near the boundary.

In both the PM and GM, the assumption of a given posture by

one member of an interacting pair was followed by a number

of behavior patterns in the other martin. Analysis of the

distributions of following acts showed highly significant

changes in the probability distribution of acts dependent

upon the preceding act. That is, execution of displays did

change the behavior of recipient individuals.

Three displays (low-intensity Head Forward Thrust,

Gaping, and Bill-snapping) elicited stay or retreat of

intruders (Table 6 and 7). When a PM or GM gave low-

intensity Head Forward Thrust, the recipient subsequently

stayed 81% of the time (PM: n=379 field records; GM:

n=262 field records) and rarely attacked (PM: 2%, n=379

field records; GM: 5%, n=262 field records). For Gaping

(PM: n=142 field records; GM: n=103 field records) and

Bill-snapping (PM: n=76 field records; GM: n=33 field

records) in both species the probability of subsequent

staying of the recipient was 73% or better and the likeli-

hood of being attacked by the recipient was 6% less. The

two responses most effective in driving intruders away were

the high-intensity Head Forward Thrust and the Lunge

(Table 6 and 7). Lunge had the greatest probability of

eliciting retreat in the recipient (> 95% in both species;









PM: n=120 field records; GM: n=62 field records), and the

lowest probability of being followed by retreat from the

signaler (< 5%).

Alert (PM: n=233 field records; GM: n=216 field

records) and Withdraw High-Up (PM: n=380 field records; GM:

n=220 field records) had the lowest probability of eliciting

retreat (< 11%) and the greatest probability of eliciting

stay (> 82%). They also were the best indicators of sub-

sequent retreat by the signaler (Tables 6 and 7). Since

Withdraw High-Up was effective in eliciting staying from

intruders, it was surprising that most attacks from rival

martins occurred after this display. The higher probability

of attack may be due in part to conditions associated with

high density in the breeding area and the resultant forced

proximity.



Competent Structure of Displays

In order to determine quantitatively if certain behav-

ioral components were associated with one another, I

assessed the responses of other martins to those components.

I recorded 312 encounters for the PM and 239 encounters for

the GM that were used in tabulating the results of agonistic

interactions. Each display consisted of a combination of

different components, of which the following were recorded.

(1) Body position: only two categories were

distinguished--the martin stood either upright or









horizontal. An upright body position was characteris-

tic of reduced aggressiveness and increased retreating

behavior. A horizontal position indicated a tendency

to retreat by opponents.

(2) Body feathers: the body feathers of the

breast, back and flanks were erected, sleeked, or

relaxed. Major feather erection occurred only when the

martins were retreating, or showing movements of

intention to retreat. Sleeked feathers were most often

seen when a male approached or threatened a potential

intruder.

(3) Crest feathers: the feathers of the head

were raised or lowered to varying degrees. There

appeared to be considerable variation in the extent of

crest erection during all of the above displays.

(4) Bill position: the bill was either opened or

closed. In some threat displays the bill was opened

wide, as in the Gape and Lunge displays. In retreat,

or retreat intention movements, the bill was usually

closed.

(5) Wing position: the wings were held against

the body when martins were loafing. When martins were

disturbed, the wings were repeatedly flicked away from

the body (PM: x=2.4 cm, n=15 film records; GM:

x=2.3 cm, n=7 field records). The wings were extended

(PM: x=l.8 cm, n=7 film records; GM: x=1.8 cm,









n=3 film records) when martins were moving forward in a

Lunge and when moving away in Withdraw High-Up.

(6) Tail position: the tail was held stationary

and kept in line with the body when martins were

loafing. The tail was flicked up and down in a verti-

cal plane when martins were startled or disturbed.

(7) Orientation: a martin faced the rival or

turned at any angle away from it. Facing the rival

increased the probability of attack. Body positions

turned at some angle away from the rival were associ-

ated with an increased probability of retreat.

Of the threat displays recognized in this study, each

had a different component structure. The first step in this

analysis was to record the frequency of occurrence of the

seven different behavioral components and to determine the

degree of correlation between these components (Tables 8 and

9). For the seven behavioral components there were 21 pos-

sible two-factor combinations. I found a correlation

(p < 0.05) between components in 19 out of 21 two-factor

combinations for the PM and 20 out of 21 two-factor combina-

tions for the GM. Thus when a martin raised its body

feathers, its crest was generally raised at the same time,

and a martin with the bill open almost always faced its

rival. Even more striking was the observation that some

components rarely occurred with others. In PMs and GMs a

horizontal body position rarely occurred with body feathers

erect, crest erect, or during facing away (15 observations,
















0a C' -r I






rei x< 3 0a X O
-) ,< 1.a -5C



-1X (a -7





;f 0ifO
l/^ Ll1


0
r-i in
0





C)
(a


1 II


.rq
0










oH Z
41 U



) U
X O

E-I

>












a)J
0 Q)




U0













4(1 0
U M
0



04
o0 L














. H *














O(J
o o
4- 0






0a)
m 4


0.









-4




























-P 0
-4
0l

















































a -)
U








































Ca>
S00


-0
-U
u*3





1 :













Y10

.-4 0.
U n]


30















,0




V)
0^1:






00
..3 -4



e 0

4 a











'pU
-3








VV



101
'ur


Ji



















VI)




CO)
1U)
>. -I UJ



oo c

























VLII
.3
o*- V-4






















-a
>-41






















CO :

CO

a
=q0


0101
Ll n



v~ v


so3r
'a -4


~n 'a a' 'a a
3 CS 'a ~ I


'a O-' X0. 'a en o XO' -4XC x o -.XC a' f i
CJ ;.Cfl ;:en Xen C- 0'.- Cl
-. n ;: r- c.i I n |




I I
rC- C~ -o '3 -7 Oa -' -7r o 7 I
"-n -i 7, 10 lfl 10 1 I 1


rl



" 0
c-i 0a

>5


C-a -C'



C- -3
C- '0
3
X
Y,







C
F-

r --


n 'O

><5


C-a Cl






m In




f^> '5i
X.


"1

X









NNJ











-- 4
CT^ i?
1 C0

>5














o ':0
' f








I CI
U-C


0 r rJ l C 0 I c


.- I C-I



0 D !


in r' i eI


?I








00



I t


e n r rC I -T
9j u-l 0 I '0
II-





-4 -
.3 CS C-f~ :0 I
'0 -7 oa 1 -7 4











X -









I m
I o







r^-
0 I


0) r ri
j -Y a
(u -O 55
X001 -4i S.

If^ L U tl LU
a4'- U -
W m
>~,. '.- I-a 1 (n u
'0 V/ 0 [j r '
0 0 IS S
CO 10 U u


a
) V
O '-l 0 *- 5 L
U Lr 0 0 y 1a
f 00 w O O 1

0 r
.I ~O M r-r -4 4- C4.S l
-I 0 '-4 :9 U : c
-t-4 -r4 i-4 '0 40 O 1
cO 3a 3 E- H L. L o


co




o 0
C- ID




r-






l~a CSi
ii





en





-7 m
m o0



N







n (,
--T


in I-




m a'


e -








o -t
0




o r-4





CS4 ClJ
0 0n

X








CO <
-1

















N -3 CO 1 In 0r -i -t L -t 0 1t I I | 0
- 7 0 -T i 'I 0 7 -0 C r- 0 I I 0
14I -




- O ; i 3 n 3' X 0 < O f I
a ;x: cO ,' -. r-- I m I


0

oa








ro
0 0




H -H--I


E-i Hn


OM,

4-4







C 0


*)CN








o M
*H r
SQ)



4) -44
C "( 0







0 ,41


.C .
r-q 4-4


















0 0
OEu
0 a)















o x
r















O cmo


I. -4 H
a
(o
0 z
















C (U
(0tr -
*i-i(Q kr


Cf 4





oc,


-C:

L'I.


m3 0
1
nJ


b> u
ru



























mu U
Li w
u
































'n

t-j
La
sL>





"3 -W-
CL.






























qu
u
41 --4










4
:0
V Q








aj

0 U






c =
O'74


Lie


-4 a





3-' 0
-a
-IC






Coou
3 IA

T



U M








"3
*^ 0












-Ca

a' CL
^ u













"a,
*i'l a 4
=00


a)


U ^


U 0









to
U VI

Xu









3'--
'Li N
J



-C4







41
3' b-4
ui






'0'4

030
-C-a
>^





.10

03 3


- o











3<
X
0 -








X
3<







0 00
0 '0i








=0 r-~
>3
y3

04 --











CO 0



I (0~
I -


>3

0i


'3


o0 n 0 I

- X.

D0 0 3 0 Co
C' '0 0- -7 -e


'0 '- 0 0 I 0
'0 -. 'n I *


X X



-t I 7 r0- I


'n 30


3<


-7 -7r










203 I
-4 I
xf i


x


I -




IO I
lo


(4 0 00 --7 04







' 0 O '0



X X
X x




C




I '








Lit I


V
C/l 'o U
ci Li '

-cw Cc Lo u ) t
SWU o. a 0 0
1) u .0 0 U r
a-Li a at CnI a 3


w u) ul U w Ul
0 0'-a

Su 'a ca :a a a -


> >.


- 3 a

C C aaa:
4 -u u"I W
U '3 a< Cl
C&, m O


m n
0






-7(





r-. 0
-7 '0


N







3





2<
cn n
m mr










'0 04-
--7


.4 01 'j '1' 0 m 0- ) o co '0
I Tr r -4 7 r -4


- CJ


X
1<


0 -T



-4 a,


x
m r-













0 Ca,
>3


-7 -7
r-



in oo











a) Qr
X









--0 c'
X





03
- cr


C a
0 .0
N 0

a a
-r-< -i-

0 0.
3: 3


o 0
AO O









n=201). Only wing and tail flicking combined with body

position in the PM and wing flicking combined with crest

position in the GM did not show any significant degree of

correlation between these components.

The next step in the analysis was to determine if one

could predict what a bird would do from its posture.

Following the same approach used for analyzing the displays,

I recorded the frequency of the seven different behavioral

components and the degree of correlation between these

components and the subsequent reactions of the birds.

Tables 10 and 11 show that a bird's behavioral posture

indicated different probabilities that it would stay,

attack, or retreat. Only five components permitted pre-

diction of subsequent action by a male PM (Table 10). Bill

open (as in Lunge) had a 92% (n=52 field records) chance of

being followed by attack. Tail flick, which was associated

with moving forward, had a 72% chance of being followed by

attack (n=74 field records). Body feathers erect, crest

erect, and facing away indicated high probabilities of

retreating. In the GM (Table 11) only bill open permitted

prediction of the outcome of an encounter with any degree of

accuracy. For all other components of behavior the

probability of subsequent attack, retreat, or stay was

usually 60% or less in both species (Tables 10 and 11).

Another approach was to compare the probability of

action when a given component was present or absent. Thus

when a PM behavior changed from body feathers sleeked to




Full Text

PAGE 1

7+( &203$5$7,9( %(+$9,25 2) 7+5(( 63(&,(6 2) 6:$//2:6 JHQXV 3URJQHf %< (5,. -26+8$ %,77(5%$80 $ ',66(57$7,21 35(6(17(' 72 7+( *5$'8$7( 6&+22/ 2) 7+( 81,9(56,7< 2) )/25,'$ ,1 3$57,$/ )8/),//0(17 2) 7+( 5(48,5(0(176 )25 7+( '(*5(( 2) '2&725 2) 3+,/2623+< 81,9(56,7< 2) )/25,'$

PAGE 2

7KLV GLVVHUWDWLRQ LV GHGLFDWHG WR 'U -RKQ :LOOLDP +DUG\ PHQWRU DQG IULHQG

PAGE 3

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

PAGE 4

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n VKLS DQG DVVLVWDQFH LQ HGLWLQJ WKH PDQXVFULSW PDGH WKH FRPSOHWLRQ RI WKLV VWXG\ SRVVLEOH ,9

PAGE 5

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

PAGE 6

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
PAGE 7

3DAH $V\PPHWU\ LQ 5HVRXUFH +ROGLQJ 3RWHQWLDO $V\PPHWU\ LQ 2ZQHUVKLS 6WDWXV $V\PPHWU\ LQ $JH5HODWHG 3OXPDJH &KDUDFWHUn LVWLFV $V\PPHWU\ LQ $JJUHVVLYH %HKDYLRU $V\PPHWU\ RI 6L]H DQG :HLJKW RQ 'RPLQDQFH $V\PPHWU\ LQ &RQWHVWV 'XH WR 6H[ 'LVFXVVLRQ 5+3 $V\PPHWULHV 3D\2II $V\PPHWULHV 8QFRUUHODWHG $V\PPHWULHV '20,1$1&( 326,7,21 ,QWURGXFWLRQ 'DWD $QDO\VLV 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ *UD\%UHDVWHG 0DUWLQ 5DQN LQ WKH +LHUDUFK\ 'LVFXVVLRQ &21&/86,216 /,7(5$785( &,7(' %,2*5$3+,&$/ 6.(7&+ YLL

PAGE 8

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

PAGE 9

7DEOH 3DJH 3HUFHQWDJH 2FFXUUHQFH RI 9RFDOL]DWLRQV 'XULQJ $JRQLVWLF %HKDYLRU RI 3XUSOH 0DUWLQV 3HUFHQWDJH 2FFXUUHQFH RI 9RFDOL]DWLRQV 'XULQJ $JRQLVWLF %HKDYLRU RI *UD\%UHDVWHG 0DUWLQV 3HUFHQWDJH 2FFXUUHQFH RI 9RFDOL]DWLRQV 'XULQJ $JRQLVWLF %HKDYLRU RI &DULEEHDQ 0DUWLQV 3HUFHQWDJH RI 6HYHUDO 9RFDOL]DWLRQV *LYHQ LQ 9DULRXV &RQWH[WV E\ 3XUSOH 0DUWLQV 3HUFHQWDJH RI 6HYHUDO 9RFDOL]DWLRQV *LYHQ LQ 9DULRXV &RQWH[WV E\ *UD\%UHDVWHG 0DUWLQV 3HUFHQWDJH RI 6HYHUDO 9RFDOL]DWLRQV *LYHQ LQ 9DULRXV &RQWH[WV E\ &DULEEHDQ 0DUWLQV &RPSDULVRQV RI WKH 3K\VLFDO &KDUDFWHULVWLFV RI 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ 9RFDOL]DWLRQV &RPSDULVRQV RI WKH 3K\VLFDO &KDUDFWHULVWLFV RI *UD\%UHDVWHG 0DUWLQ 9RFDOL]DWLRQV &RPSDULVRQV RI WKH 3K\VLFDO &KDUDFWHULVWLFV RI &DULEEHDQ 0DUWLQ 9RFDOL]DWLRQV 1XPEHU RI 0DOH 3XUSOH 0DUWLQV DQG 7KHLU 0D[LPXP DQG 0LQLPXP 7HUULWRU\ 6L]HV ZLWK 0DOHnV 0RQWKV RI $UULYDO $ &RPSDULVRQ RI WKH 1XPEHU RI )LJKWV DW D *RXUG &RPSOH[ 9HUVXV D 0XOWLURRP +RXVH IRU 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ 0DOHV $ &RPSDULVRQ RI WKH /HQJWK RI 7LPH 6SHQW /RDIn LQJ DW D *RXUG &RPSOH[ 9HUVXV D 0XOWLURRP +RXVH IRU 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ 0DOHV &RPSDULVRQ RI :KHWKHU 3ULRU 2FFXSDQF\ DW D 1HVWLQJ 6LWH 'HWHUPLQHV WKH :LQQHU RI WKH (QFRXQWHU &RPSDULVRQ RI WKH 1XPEHU RI (QFRXQWHUV %HWZHHQ $GXOW 3XUSOH *UD\%UHDVWHG DQG &DULEEHDQ 0DUWLQV LQ :KLFK D %LUG 'RPLQDWHG DV D 5HVXOW RI :KHWKHU RU 1RW LW ,QLWLDWHG WKH (QFRXQWHU ,;

PAGE 10

7DEOH 3DJH &RPSDULVRQ RI 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ (QFRXQWHUV LQ :KLFK D %LUG 'RPLQDWHG DV D )XQFWLRQ RI $JH DQG RI :KHWKHU LW ,QLWLDWHG WKH )LJKW &RPSDULVRQ RI 'RPLQDQFH ZLWK %RG\ :HLJKW DQG %RG\ 6L]H LQ 3XUSOH 0DUWLQV &RPSDULVRQ RI 'RPLQDQFH ZLWK %RG\ :HLJKW DQG %RG\ 6L]H LQ *UD\%UHDVWHG 0DUWLQV 1XPEHU RI 6XSSODQWLQJV DW WKH 1HVW 6LWHV %HWZHHQ 3XUSOH 0DUWLQV DW WKH *DLQHVYLOOH &RXQWU\ &OXE f 1XPEHU RI 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ 6XSSODQWLQJV 7DNLQJ 3ODFH 2WKHU 7KDQ LQ )URQW RI WKH 1HVW KROH LH DW 7HOHSKRQH :LUHV &RORQ\ 5RRIWRSV 7HOHYLVLRQ $QWHQQDV 1XPEHU RI 6XSSODQWLQJV 2EVHUYHG DW WKH 1HVW 6LWHV %HWZHHQ *UD\%UHDVWHG 0DUWLQV DW 3RLQWH D3LHUUH f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

PAGE 11

/,67 2) ),*85(6 )LJXUH 6FKHPDWLF RXWOLQH VKRZLQJ KRZ ERG\ DQG OLPE SRVLWLRQV ZHUH PHDVXUHG 3RVWXUHV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK LQDFWLYLW\ $ 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ % *UD\EUHDVWHG 0DUWLQ & &DULEEHDQ 0DUWLQ 'LVSOD\V DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKUHDW EHKDYLRU $ /RZLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW 3XUSOH 0DUWLQf % KLJKLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW 3XUSOH 0DUWLQf & ORZLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW *UD\EUHDVWHG 0DUWLQf KLJK LQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW *UD\EUHDVWHG 0DUWLQf ( YDULDWLRQ RI WKH KLJKLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW *UD\EUHDVWHG 0DUWLQf ) ORZLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW &DULEEHDQ 0DUWLQf KLJKLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW &DULEEHDQ 0DUWLQf 'LVSOD\V DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKUHDW EHKDYLRU $ *DSLQJ % *DSLQJ EHWZHHQ PDWHV & 'HIHQn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

PAGE 12

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n FDQW GLIIHUHQFH DW WKH OHYHO WHVW IRU VLJQLILFDQFH EHWZHHQ WZR SURSRUWLRQV /,+) ORZLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW +,+) KLJKLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW *DSLQJ %6 %LOOVQDSSLQJ / /XQJH :+8 :LWKGUDZ +LJK8S $+8 $OHUW +LJK8S 3DLUZLVH FRPSDULVRQV RI SUREDELOLWLHV WKDW D *UD\EUHDVWHG 0DUWLQ UHFHLYHU ZLOO DWWDFN UHWUHDW RU VWD\ IRU DOO SRVVLEOH FRPELQDWLRQV RI GLVSOD\V 'DUN EORFNV LQGLFDWH D VLJQLILn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

PAGE 13

)LJXUH 3DJH 6RQRJUDPV RI 3XUSOH DQG *UD\EUHDVWHG 0DUWLQ YRFDOL]DWLRQV $ 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ 3ULPDU\ VRQJ % LQFRPSOHWH 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ 3ULPDU\ VRQJ & *UD\EUHDVWHG 0DUWLQ &UHH FDOOV *UD\n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n URRP KRXVHV 7HUULWRU\ VL]H DV D IXQFWLRQ RI WKH QXPEHU RI 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ PDOHV DW D PXOWLURRP KRXVH 7HUULWRU\ VL]H DV D IXQFWLRQ RI WKH QXPEHU RI ILJKWV DW D 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ PXOWLURRP KRXVH 7HUULWRU\ VL]H DV D IXQFWLRQ RI WKH QXPEHU RI ILJKWV DW D *UD\EUHDVWHG 0DUWLQ QHVWLQJ DUHD 1XPEHU RI HQFRXQWHUV DV D IXQFWLRQ RI WKH VH[ RI WKH ELUG )UHTXHQF\ RI SDUWLFLSDQWV LQ HQFRXQWHUV DV D IXQFWLRQ RI WKH GLVWDQFH EHWZHHQ QHVWKROHV f &1 1XPEHU RI VXSSODQWLQJV DW D 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ PXOWLURRP KRXVH GXULQJ WKH EUHHGLQJ VHDVRQ 1XPEHU RI VXSSODQWLQJV DW WKH *UD\EUHDVWHG 0DUWLQ QHVW DUHD GXULQJ WKH EUHHGLQJ VHDVRQ ;OOO

PAGE 14

$EVWUDFW RI 'LVVHUWDWLRQ 3UHVHQWHG WR WKH *UDGXDWH 6FKRRO RI WKH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI )ORULGD LQ 3DUWLDO )XOILOOPHQW RI WKH 5HTXLUHPHQWV IRU WKH 'HJUHH RI 'RFWRU RI 3KLORVRSK\ 7+( &203$5$7,9( %(+$9,25 2) 7+5(( 63(&,(6 2) 6:$//2:6 JHQXV 3URJQHf %\ (ULN -RVKXD %LWWHUEDXP $XJXVW &KDLUPDQ 'U -RKQ :LOOLDP +DUG\ 0DMRU 'HSDUWPHQW =RRORJ\ 7KH YRFDO DQG YLVXDO GLVSOD\V RI WKUHH VSHFLHV RI VZDOORZV *HQXV 3URJQHf DUH GHVFULEHG DQG DQDO\]HG VWUXFn WXUDOO\ DQG IXQFWLRQDOO\ H[DPLQH WKH ZD\ LQ ZKLFK SUHGLFWLRQV IURP PRGHOV EDVHG RQ JDPH WKHRU\ FDQ KHOS XV XQGHUVWDQG HWKRORJLFDO GDWD DERXW DJRQLVWLF GLVSOD\V 3UHGLFWLRQV EDVHG RQ JDPH WKHRU\ DUH FRQWUDVWHG ZLWK WKH WUDGLWLRQDO HWKRORJLFDO YLHZ WKDW DJRQLVWLF GLVSOD\V HYROYHG WR WUDQVPLW LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW WKH SUREDELOLW\ RI DWWDFN RU HVFDSH $IWHU D VLJQDOHUnV GLVSOD\ ERWK WKH VLJQDOHUnV DFWLRQ DQG WKH UHFHLYHUnV UHVSRQVH DUH UHFRUGHG FRQFOXGH WKDW LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW DWWDFN LV SRRUO\ HQFRGHG LQ WKH DJJUHVVLYH GLVSOD\V DQG VXJJHVW WKDW PDQ\ DJRQLVWLF GLVSOD\V PD\ VLJQDO WKDW WKH VXEVHTXHQW EHKDYLRU RI WKH GLVSOD\LQJ ELUG GHSHQGV LQ SDUW RQ WKDW RI WKH UHFHLYHU [LY

PAGE 15

, JLYH HYLGHQFH WKDW PRVW RI WKHVH DJJUHVVLYH GLVSOD\V DUH XVHG LQ D EURDG UDQJH RI VLWXDWLRQV VXJJHVWLQJ WKDW WKH\ HQFRGH JHQHUDO PHVVDJHV DQG WKDW VSHFLILFLW\ LQ FRPPXQLFDn WLRQ GHSHQGV ODUJHO\ RQ FRQWH[WXDO LQIRUPDWLRQ 6RFLDO LQWHUDFWLRQV RI WKH VZDOORZV VWXGLHG DUH EDVHG XSRQ WKH PHFKDQLVP RI WHUULWRULDOLW\ 7HUULWRULDOLW\ LV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK GHIHQVH RI D FULWLFDO UHVRXUFH ZKLFK LQ WKHVH ELUGV LV D EUHHGLQJ WHUULWRU\ 7KH HVWDEOLVKPHQW RI WHUULWRU\ LV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK DJHUHODWHG SOXPDJH FKDUDFn WHULVWLFV UHVLGHQF\ DQG DJJUHVVLRQ 'RPLQDQFH KLHUDUFKLHV LQ WKH VZDOORZV VWXGLHG DUH OLQHDU DZD\ IURP WKH QHVW VLWHV DQG QRQOLQHDU DW WKH EUHHGLQJ VLWHV 7KXV WKH RXWFRPH RI DQ HQFRXQWHU EHWZHHQ LQGLYLGXDOV LV VLWHGHSHQGHQW 7KHVH ILQGLQJV DUH GLVFXVVHG LQ WKH OLJKW RI UHFHQW WKHRUHWLFDO DGYDQFHV LQ WKH VWXG\ RI DQLPDO WKUHDW DQG ILJKWLQJ EHKDYn LRU [Y

PAGE 16

,1752'8&7,21 ,Q WKLV VWXG\ LQYHVWLJDWHG WKH GLVSOD\ EHKDYLRU RI WKUHH VSHFLHV RI VZDOORZV JHQXV 3URJQH WKH 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ 3 VXEVf WKH *UD\EUHDVWHG 0DUWLQ 3AB FKDO\EHDf DQG WKH &DULEEHDQ 0DUWLQ 3A GRPLQLFHQVLVf 6SHFLILFDOO\ WKH DLPV RI WKLV VWXG\ ZHUH WR f GHVFULEH WKH YRFDO DQG SK\VLFDO GLVSOD\V f SURYLGH LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ WKH IXQFWLRQ RI HDFK GLVSOD\ f VXJJHVW KRZ HDFK VSHFLHVnV GLVSOD\ EHKDYLRU LV UHODWHG WR LWV VRFLDO RUJDQL]DWLRQ DQG f H[DPLQH VRPH DVSHFWV RI WKH HFRORJ\ RI FRPPXQLFDWLRQ *HQHUDO DFFRXQWV RI WKH EHKDYLRU DQG OLIH KLVWRU\ RI WKH 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ KDYH EHHQ JLYHQ E\ $OOHQ DQG 1LFH f %HQW f %LWWHUEDXP DQG %URZQ f %URZQ D D E f %URZQ DQG %LWWHUEDXP f )LQOD\ f *DXQW f -DFNVRQ DQG 7DWH f -RKQVWRQ DQG +DUG\ f DQG 5RKZHU DQG 1LOHV f 3UHYLRXV VWXGLHV RI WKH EHKDYLRU RI WKH *UD\n EUHDVWHG 0DUWLQ KDYH EHHQ SXEOLVKHG E\ %HHEH +DUWOH\ DQG +RZH f %HQW f '\UF] f (LVHQPDQQ DQG +DYHUVFKPLGW f IIUHQFK f DQG +HOOPD\U f /LWWOH LV NQRZQ DERXW WKH EHKDYLRU RI &DULEEHDQ 0DUWLQV DSDUW IURP FRPPHQWV PDGH E\ %HOFKHU DQG 6PRRNHU f DQG IIUHQFK f

PAGE 17

&RPPXQLFDWLRQ KDV EHHQ GHILQHG KLVWRULFDOO\ DV DQ H[FKDQJH RI LQIRUPDWLRQ EHWZHHQ WZR DQLPDOV IRU WKHLU PXWXDO EHQHILW *HLVW +DLOPDQ 0DUOHU 0LOOHU 1XJHQW 3RVW t *UHHQODZ =DKDYL f $QLPDO ; WKH VLJQDOHUf WUDQVPLWV D VLJQDO WKDW DOWHUV WKH EHKDYLRU RI DQLPDO < WKH UHFHLYHUf KRZHYHU QHLWKHU WKH VLJQDO QRU WKH UHVSRQVH FRQVWLWXWHV FRPPXQLFDWLRQ LQ WKHPVHOYHV (YHQ LI RQH DQLPDO VLJQDOV DQG WKH RWKHU UHVSRQGV WKHUH KDV EHHQ QR FRPPXQLFDWLRQ XQOHVV WKH SUREDELOLW\ RI UHVSRQVH LV DOWHUHG IURP ZKDW LW ZRXOG KDYH EHHQ LQ WKH DEVHQFH RI WKH VLJQDO .ORSIHU t +DWFK :LOVRQ f 1RW DOO VLJQDOV QHFHVVDULO\ SURYRNH DQ LPPHGLDWH VSHFLILF UHVSRQVH IURP WKH UHFHLYHU $ VWLPXOXV PD\ VLPSO\ FKDQJH WKH DQLPDOnV UHVSRQVLYHQHVV WR DQRWKHU VLJQDO RU WKH VWLPXOXV PD\ SHUVLVW DQG EH SHUFHLYHG DIWHU D GHOD\ %XUJKDUGW 0DUOHU t 3HWHUV :LOVRQ f 5LWXDOL]DWLRQ KHUH GLVFXVV KRZ VLJQDOV PD\ KDYH HYROYHG WKURXJK QDWXUDO VHOHFWLRQ IRU HIIHFWLYH FRPPXQLFDWLRQ PDLQO\ DGGUHVV WZR TXHVWLRQV f :KDW LV WKH HYLGHQFH WKDW FRPPXQLFDWLRQ WDNHV SODFH ZKHQ LQGLYLGXDOV RI WKUHH GLIIHUn HQW VSHFLHV RI VZDOORZV LQWHUDFW ZLWK RWKHUV RI WKHLU RZQ VSHFLHV DQG f :KDW LV WKH HYLGHQFH WKDW SDUWLFXODU EHKDYLRU SDWWHUQV RI WKHVH ELUGV DUH LQGHHG VLJQDOV" 7KH DFWLRQ RI D VLJQDOHU FDQ EH DQ RYHUW EHKDYLRU VXFK DV D

PAGE 18

YLVXDO RU DFRXVWLFDO GLVSOD\ RU D FKDQJH LQ WKH VHQGHUnV PRUSKRORJ\ RU SK\VLRORJ\ VXFK DV FRORUDWLRQ RI DQ DSSHQGn DJHf RU HYHQ DQ RGRU DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK DQ H[FUHWLRQ 6PLWK f 0RVW VLJQDOV LQ DQLPDOV DUH WUDQVPLWWHG E\ VSHFLDO GLVSOD\V $ GLVSOD\ LV D VSHFLILF EHKDYLRU SDWWHUQ WKDW KDV EHFRPH VSHFLDOL]HG WR PRGLI\ WKH EHKDYLRU RI DQRWKHU LQGLn YLGXDO .UHEV t 'DYLHV f 7KH SURFHVV RI HYROXWLRQ RU GLVSOD\V IURP QRQGLVSOD\ PRYHPHQWV LV FDOOHG ULWXDOL]DWLRQ %\ GHILQLWLRQ D ULWXDOL]HG SDWWHUQ PXVW KDYH EHHQ DW VRPH WLPH OHVV IXQFWLRQDO LQ FRPPXQLFDWLRQ DQG QRW D GLVSOD\ SDWWHUQ RU RWKHU VSHFLDOL]HG FRPPXQLFDWRU\ DFWLYLW\ 3UHYLRXVO\ ULWXDOL]DWLRQ ZDV VHHQ E\ VRPH ZRUNHUV DV UHGXFLQJ WKH DPRXQW RI DPELJXLW\ RI SRWHQWLDOO\ LQIRUPDWLYH DFWLRQV 'DUZLQ 0RUULV f ,Q EHFRPLQJ PRUH VW\OL]HG DQG H[DJJHUDWHG WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ FRQWHQW DQG WKHUHIRUH WKH VLJQDO SURSHUW\ RI WKH GLVSOD\ ZDV HQKDQFHG 7KLV WUDGLWLRQDO YLHZ RI FRPPXQLFDWLRQ DUJXHG WKDW LW ZDV SRVVLEOH WR GHWHUPLQH WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ FRQWHQW RI D VLJQDO IURP D NQRZOHGJH RI WKH UHVSRQVH RI RWKHU DQLPDOV WR WKDW VLJQDO DQG IURP NQRZOHGJH RI WKH HQYLURQPHQWDO DQG EHKDYn LRUDO FRQWH[WV LQ ZKLFK WKDW UHVSRQVH ZDV JLYHQ $QGHUVVRQ 'XQKDP 6WRNHV Df 0RUH UHFHQW LGHDV KRZHYHU VXJJHVW WKDW GLVSOD\V DUH OLNHO\ WR HYROYH WKDW GLVJXLVH WKH UHDO LQWHUQDO VWDWH RU LQWHQWLRQV RI WKH DQLPDO &KDUQRY t .UHEV 'DZNLQV t .UHEV f 7KLV YLHZ SURSRVHV WKDW VLJQDOV DUH

PAGE 19

PDQLSXODWLYH LQ IXQFWLRQ DQG DUH XVHG WR SHUVXDGH UHFLSLHQWV WR EHKDYH LQ ZD\V WKDW EHQHILW WKH VLJQDOHU 7KUHDW GLVn SOD\V IRU H[DPSOH PD\ GLVJXLVH DQ DQLPDOnV LQWHQW WR IOHH E\ PDNLQJ LW DSSHDU DJJUHVVLYH 0D\QDUG 6PLWK f 7R YLHZ DQLPDO FRPPXQLFDWLRQ DV SRWHQWLDOO\ GHFHLWIXO LV D VKDUS GHSDUWXUH IURP WKH PRUH WUDGLWLRQDO YLHZ RI ULWXDOL]D WLRQ 7KLV QHZ YLHZ OHDGV WR D WKLUG K\SRWKHVLV FRQFHUQLQJ WKH HYROXWLRQ RI ULWXDOL]DWLRQ ZKLFK HPSKDVL]HV WKDW GLVSOD\V DUH WKH UHVXOW RI VHOHFWLRQ E\ UHFHLYHUV IRU UHOLDEOH VLJQDOV =DKDYL f VXJJHVWV WKDW GLVSOD\V EHFRPH PRUH VWHUHRW\SHG DQG UHSHWLWLYH EHFDXVH VWHUHRW\S\ SURYLGHV D XQLIRUP EDFNJURXQG DJDLQVW ZKLFK VXEWOH GLIIHUn HQFHV EHWZHHQ LQGLYLGXDOV DUH HPSKDVL]HG 5HFLSLHQWV DUH VHOHFWHG WR GLVFULPLQDWH EHWZHHQ VLJQDOV RQ WKH EDVLV RI WKH VLJQDOnV UHOLDELOLW\ DV DQ LQGLFDWRU RI DQ DQLPDOnV SDUHQWDO DELOLW\ VL]H VWUHQJWK RU ILJKWLQJ DELOLW\ ,Q WKLV PDQQHU D IHPDOH PD\ DVVHVV WKH FRXUWVKLS IHHGLQJ RU GLVSOD\ RI D QXPEHU RI SRWHQWLDO PDWHV ZLWK WKHLU DELOLW\ WR JDWKHU IRRG IRU KHU \RXQJ 7KXV FXUUHQW DQLPDO FRPPXQLFDWLRQ WKHRU\ LV WKH IRFXV RI WKUHH FRQIOLFWLQJ K\SRWKHVHV WKDW H[SODLQ WKH VHOHFWLYH DGYDQWDJH RI ULWXDOL]DWLRQ f UHGXFWLRQ RI DPELJXLW\ RU LQIRUPDWLRQ VKDULQJ f PDQLSXODWLRQ DQG f UHOLDEOH RU KRQHVW VLJQDOV

PAGE 20

+RZ 6LJQDOV 2ULJLQDWH (DUO\ XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI ULWXDOL]DWLRQ FDPH IURP +X[OH\ f /RUHQ] f DQG 7LQEHUJHQ f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n PHQW DFWLYLWLHV DQG UHGLUHFWHG DFWLYLWLHV $QGUHZ 'DDQMH +LQGH t 7LQEHUJHQ f ,QWHQWLRQ PRYHPHQWV DUH WKH SUHSDUDWRU\ RU LQFRPSOHWH PRYHPHQWV WKDW RIWHQ DSSHDU DW WKH EHJLQQLQJ RI DQ DFWLYLW\ 'XULQJ WKH SURFHVV RI ULWXDOL]DWLRQ VXFK PRYHPHQWV DUH DOWHUHG LQ D ZD\ WKDW PDNHV WKHLU FRPPXQLFDWLYH IXQFWLRQ PRUH HIIHFWLYH ,QWHQn WLRQ PRYHPHQWV WHQG WR EHFRPH VLPSOLILHG VWHUHRW\SHG UHSHWLWLYH DQG H[DJJHUDWHG LQ IRUP 0F)DUODQG t +RXVWRQ f 7KH\ DOVR PD\ DFTXLUH PRUSKRORJLFDO VXSSRUW LQ WKH IRUP RI DGGLWLRQDO VWUXFWXUHV WKDW HQKDQFH WKH

PAGE 21

FRQVSLFXRXVQHVV RI WKH PRYHPHQW 2QH H[DPSOH LV IRXQG LQ WKH 0DQGDULQ 'XFN $L[ JDOHULFXODWDf ZKLFK KDV VRPH RI LWV ZLQJ IHDWKHUV PRGLILHG WR IRUP D EULJKW RUDQJH VDLO WKDW LV HUHFWHG GXULQJ FRXUWVKLS SUHHQLQJ /RUHQ] f 7KH DQFHVWUDO SUHHQLQJ PRYHPHQWV DUH UHGXFHG WR D TXLFN WXUQ RI WKH KHDG VR WKDW WKH ELOO SRLQWV WR WKH RUDQJH VDLO 2WKHU GLVSOD\V KDYH HYROYHG IURP GLVSODFHPHQW DFWLY LWLHVWKH RXW RI FRQWH[W EHKDYLRU SDWWHUQV WKDW RIWHQ DSSHDU LQ FRQIOLFW VLWXDWLRQV 7KHVH PRYHPHQWV PD\ UHIOHFW PRWLYDWLRQDO FRQIOLFW RU LQGHFLVLRQ DV WKH DQLPDO YDFLOODWHV EHWZHHQ IRU H[DPSOH DWWDFN DQG PRYLQJ DZD\ +LQGH f ([DPSOHV LQFOXGH GLVSODFHPHQW VFUDWFKLQJ LQ ORYHELUGV $JDSRUQLV VSHFLHV 'LOJHU f DQG GRPHVWLF FKLFNHQV JDOOXV 'RPHVWLFXV 0F%ULGH HW DO f ZKLFK DSSHDUV WR EH GHULYHG IURP DFWLYLWLHV UHODWHG WR WKH FROOHFWLRQ RI QHVW PDWHULDO $ WKLUG VRXUFH IRU WKH HYROXWLRQ RI GLVSOD\V LV UHGLn UHFWHG DFWLYLWLHV 7KH EHKDYLRU SDWWHUQ LV LQ WKH ULJKW FRQWH[W EXW GLUHFWHG DW DQ LQDSSURSULDWH VWLPXOXV :KHQ D PDOH DSSURDFKHV D SRWHQWLDO ULYDO ZLWK WHQGHQFLHV ERWK WR LQWLPLGDWH DQG WR IOHH KH PD\ FKRRVH QHLWKHU FRXUVH RI DFWLRQ DW ILUVW ,QVWHDG KH SHUIRUPV D WKLUG VHHPLQJO\ LUUHOHYHQW DFW +H UHGLUHFWV KLV DJJUHVVLRQ WRZDUG WKH JURXQG RU VRPH REMHFW QHDUE\ VXFK DV D EODGH RI JUDVV &XOOHQ f DQG 7LQEHUJHQ f GHVFULEH FHUWDLQ GLVSOD\V RI WHUQV DQG JXOOV WKDW PD\ KDYH EHHQ UHGLUHFWHG EHKDYLRU GHULYHG IURP DWWDFN EHKDYLRU

PAGE 22

$IWHU WKH DSSHDUDQFH RI 7LPEHUJHQnV DUWLFOH HWKRORJLVWV EHJDQ WR LQWHUSUHW FRPPXQLFDWLRQ V\VWHPV E\ ZKDW FDPH WR EH NQRZQ DV WKH FRQIOLFW WKHRU\ RI WKH RULJLQ RI GLVSOD\V 6XEVHTXHQW QHXURSK\VLRORJLFDO H[SHULPHQWDWLRQ RQ D YDULHW\ RI DQLPDO JURXSV IDLOHG WR SURYLGH FRQILUPDWLRQ RI NH\ HOHPHQWV RI WKH 7LQEHUJHQ PRGHO DQG WKH FRQIOLFW K\SRWKHVLV ZDV PRGLILHG IURP LWV RULJLQDO IRUP %DHUHQGV %URZQ t +XQVSHUJHU 'HOXLV (ZHUW *UHHQEHUJ ,VKLL f /DWHU $QGUHZ f +LQGH f DQG :LFNOHU f LQWHUSUHWHG ULWXDOL]DWLRQ DV D SHUYDVLYH KLJKO\ RSSRUWXQLVWLF SURFHVV WKDW FRXOG EH GHULYHG IURP DOPRVW DQ\ DYDLODEOH EHKDYLRU SDWWHUQ DQDWRPn LFDO VWUXFWXUH RU SK\VLRORJLFDO FKDQJH $GGLWLRQDO VRXUFHV RI GLVSOD\V KDYH EHHQ WUDFHG WR SUHHQLQJ IHDWKHUVHWWOLQJ DXWRQRPLF UHVSRQVHV DQG WHPSHUDWXUHUHJXODWLQJ PRYHPHQWV %HHU 0F.LQQH\ :LWWHQEHUJHU f ,QWHQWLRQ PRYHPHQWV DQG GLVSODFHPHQW DFWLYLWLHV VWLOO WHQG WR EH VLQJOHG RXW E\ PDQ\ DXWKRUV DV WKH SULPH VRXUFHV IRU DYLDQ VLJQDO PRYHPHQWV EXW LW KDV EHHQ UHDOL]HG IRU VRPH WLPH WKDW WKLV LV DQ RYHUVLPSOLILFDWLRQ &DU\O &XOOHQ +LQGH 0R\QLKDQ 6PLWK f ,Q SDUWLFXODU WKHUH VHHPV WR EH LQFUHDVLQJ GRXEW DERXW WKH RXW RI FRQWH[W LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI GLVSOD\ RULJLQV WKURXJK WKH GLVSODFHPHQW SKHQRPHQRQ 7KLV ZKROH VXEMHFW UHPDLQV FRQWURYHUVLDO 7KH FRQFHSW RI GLVSODFHPHQW DFWLYLWLHV RQFH IUHTXHQWO\ XVHG ORRVHO\ LV QRZ ZLGHO\ UHFRJQL]HG DV XQFOHDU DQG LV WR EH XVHG FDXWLRXVO\ LI DW DOO +LQGH f

PAGE 23

,Q JHQHUDO WKH WDVN RI LQWHJUDWLQJ WKH FRQFHSWV RI PRWLYDWLRQDO FRQIOLFW DQG FRPPXQLFDWLRQ SURFHVVHV LV VWLOO RQH RI WKH PRVW GLIILFXOW FRQIURQWLQJ HWKRORJLVWV $ PDMRU GLIILFXOW\ LQ DSSO\LQJ PRWLYDWLRQDO FRQFHSWV LV WKDW WKH\ FDOO IRU LQFUHDVLQJO\ GHWDLOHG FDXVDO DQDO\VHV DQG \HW WKH\ UHPDLQ XQWHVWHG XQWLO WKH\ FDQ EH WUDQVODWHG LQWR SK\VLRn ORJLFDO WHUPV 0DQ\ UHVHDUFKHUV KDYH GLUHFWHG WKH PDLQ IRFXV RI WKHLU DWWHQWLRQ DZD\ IURP PRWLYDWLRQDO LQWHUSUHn WDWLRQV WRZDUG FRPPXQLFDWLRQ SURFHVVHV DQG TXHVWLRQV RI DGDSWLYH IXQFWLRQ $QGUHZ %HHU %URZQ *UHHQTXLVW 1XHFKWHUOHLQ t 6WRUHU 5REELQV 7LQEHUJHQ :LOOLV :LOVRQ f %XW DV 0F&OHHU\ f 0F)DUODQG f 6LEO\ DQG 0F&OHHU\ f DQG 6LEO\ DQG 0F)DUODQG f KDYH SRLQWHG RXW LQ RUGHU WR XQGHUVWDQG ZKDW DQ DQLPDO ZLOO GR DW DQ\ SDUWLFXODU PRPHQW LW LV QHFHVVDU\ WR WDNH LQWR DFFRXQW FDXVDO DQG IXQFWLRQDO FRQVLGHUDWLRQV VLPXOWDQHRXVO\ )RU H[DPSOH LI D ELUG LV KXQJU\ EXW WKH ULVN RI ORRNLQJ IRU IRRG LV KLJK EHFDXVH RI SUHGDWRUV WKH ELUG PD\ ZDLW XQWLO WKH SUHGDWRUV KDYH PRYHG HOVHZKHUH %LUGV KDYH GHFLVLRQ UXOHV WKDW LQYROYH FRPSDULQJ WKHLU SK\VLRORJLFDO VWDWH KXQJHUf ZLWK ULVNV LQ WKH HQYLURQPHQW EHFDXVH WKHVH ZLOO LQIOXHQFH WKH DQLPDOnV FDOLEUDWLRQ RI LWV LQWHUQDO VWDWH ,Q WKH IXWXUH 6LEO\ 0F&OHHU\ DQG 0F)DUODQGnV DUJXPHQW PD\ OHDG WR LPSRUWDQW OLQNV EHWZHHQ FDXVDO DQG IXQFWLRQDO TXHVWLRQV

PAGE 24

,Q UHFHQW \HDUV RXU XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI DQLPDO GLVSOD\V KDV EHHQ HQKDQFHG E\ WKH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI JDPHWKHRU\ PRGHOV ^%LVKRS t &DQQLQJV &DU\O +DPPHUVWHLQ +LQHV 0D\QDUG 6PLWK 0D\QDUG 6PLWK t 3DUNHU 0D\QDUG 6PLWK t 3ULFH 3DUNHU 3DUNHU t 5XEHQVWHLQ f *DPLQJ LQYROYHV WKH SULQFLSOH RI RSWLPL]DWLRQf§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n SDQWV LQYROYHG LQ D GLVSXWH ZLOO UHFHLYH EHQHILWV IURP XVLQJ GLVSOD\V UDWKHU WKDQ FRHUFLRQ ,Q WKLV GLVVHUWDWLRQ DP PRVW LQWHUHVWHG LQ WKH XVH RI FRPPXQLFDWLRQ E\ ELUGV LQ FRQIOLFW VLWXDWLRQV VSHFLIn LFDOO\ LQ FRPSHWLWLRQ IRU OLPLWHG UHVRXUFHV %HFDXVH WKHUH DUH WKUHH K\SRWKHVHV DERXW WKH VHOHFWLYH DGYDQWDJH RI ULWXDOL]DWLRQ ZLOO GLVFXVV WKH WKUHH GLIIHUHQW PRGHOV ZLWK VSHFLILF UHIHUHQFH WR WKUHDW GLVSOD\V

PAGE 25

7KH ,QIRUPDWLRQ +\SRWKHVLV $FFRUGLQJ WR WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ RU WUDGLWLRQDO YLHZ RI FRPPXQLFDWLRQ ULWXDOL]DWLRQ LV WKH UHVXOW RI PDNLQJ WKH EHKDYLRU RI WKH VLJQDOHU PRUH SUHGLFWDEOH WR D UHFLSLHQW E\ PDNLQJ DYDLODEOH VRPH LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW WKH LQWHUQDO VWDWH RU SUREDEOH QH[W EHKDYLRU RI WKH VLJQDOHU &XOOHQ 'DZNLQV t .HUEV 6PLWK f ,PSOLFLW LQ WKLV GHILQLWLRQ LV WKH UHTXLUHPHQW WKDW WKH VLJQDOnV PHVVDJH LV WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ LW FRQYH\V DQG LWV PHDQLQJ LV LWV HIIHFW RQ WKH UHFHLYHUnV EHKDYLRU %\ FRPPXQLFDWLQJ WKH VLJQDOHU JDLQV D FHUWDLQ GHJUHH RI FRQWURO RYHU WKH DFWLRQV RI WKH UHFHLYHU DQG WKH DGDSWLYH VLJQLILFDQFH WR WKH VLJQDOHU RI WKLV W\SH RI FRQWURO LV WKH IXQFWLRQ RI WKH VLJQDO 6PLWK f )RU H[DPSOH D ELUG VHHLQJ DQ DSSURDFKLQJ LQWUXGHU PD\ VKRZ D VSHFLILF GLVSOD\ LQGLFDWLQJ WKH KLJK SUREDELOLW\ WKDW LW WKH VLJQDOHUf LV RU VRRQ ZLOO EH HQJDJHG LQ DWWDFN 8SRQ VHHLQJ WKH GLVSOD\ WKH LQWUXGHU UHWUHDWV LPPHGLDWHO\ LQGLFDWLQJ WKDW LQIRUPDWLRQ ZDV FRQYH\HG DERXW ZKDW WKH VLJQDOHU ZLOO GR QH[W &RPPXn QLFDWLRQ LV WKXV VHHQ DV D PHDQV E\ ZKLFK UHFHLYHUV FDQ SUHGLFW WKH IXWXUH EHKDYLRU RI VLJQDOHUV DQG DFW DSSURSULn DWHO\ 6LJQDOHUV DUH VHOHFWHG WR LQIRUP UHFHLYHUV RI WKHLU LQWHUQDO VWDWH WR PDNH LW HDV\ IRU UHFHLYHUV WR SUHGLFW WKHLU IXWXUH EHKDYLRU %RWK SDUWLHV EHQHILW IURP GLVSOD\V WKDW DUH HIILFLHQW XQDPELJXRXV DQG DV LQIRUPDWLYH DV SRVVLEOH 7KH LQIRUPDWLRQ FRQWHQW DQG WKHUHIRUH WKH VLJQDO

PAGE 26

SURSHUW\ RI WKH DFWLRQ LV HQKDQFHG ZKHQ GLVSOD\V EHFRPH PRUH VW\OL]HG DQG H[DJJHUDWHG ,I KRZHYHU GLVSOD\V PXVW EH FOHDUFXW DQG XQDPELJXRXV WR EH PRVW HIIHFWLYH LQFUHDVLQJ WKH FODULW\ RI VLJQDOV E\ LQFUHDVLQJ WKHLU VWHUHRW\S\ PD\ UHGXFH WKH DPRXQW RI LQIRUPDWLRQ WKH\ FRQYH\ DERXW WKH VLJQDOHU 7KRXJK VLJQDO FRPSOH[LW\ LV QHFHVVDU\ WR LQFUHDVH LQIRUPDWLRQ FRQWHQW LW LQFUHDVHV WKH SUREDELOLW\ RI PLVLQWHUSUHWDWLRQ DW WKH VDPH WLPH )RU H[DPSOH FRQVLGHU D ELUG WKDW XVHV VRQJV FRQWDLQn LQJ VL[ V\OODEOHV WR WUDQVPLW PHVVDJHV )XUWKHU VXSSRVH WKDW IRU HDFK V\OODEOH WKH ELUG FDQ XVH DQ\ RI WKH VL[ VHSDn UDWH VRXQGV 2QH PHVVDJH PLJKW FRQVLVW RI WKH VDPH VRXQG UHSHDWHG VL[ WLPHV $QRWKHU PHVVDJH FRXOG FRQVLVW RI RQH VRXQG IROORZHG E\ D GLIIHUHQW VRXQG UHSHDWHG IRXU WLPHV IROORZHG E\ D WKLUG VRXQG 7KH ELUG ZRXOG KDYH WKH SRWHQn WLDO WR WUDQVPLW A RU D WRWDO RI f GLIIHUHQW PHVn VDJHV ,Q DYLDQ FRPPXQLFDWLRQ QR ELUG LV EHOLHYHG WR KDYH VXFK D V\VWHP ,QVWHDG PRWRU SDWWHUQV DUH VLPSOLILHG DQG WKH FRPSRQHQWV RI GLVSOD\V DUH RIWHQ UHSHWLWLYH 0RUULV f FDOOHG WKLV VWHUHRW\S\ W\SLFDO LQWHQVLW\f ,Q W\SLFDO LQWHQVLW\ WKH PRYHPHQW KDV WKH VDPH IRUP RYHU D ZLGH UDQJH RI PRWLYDWLRQDO VWDWHV 0RUULV YLHZHG LW DV WKH SURGXFW RI VHOHFWLRQ WR UHGXFH DPELJXLW\ LQ GLVSOD\V &KDUOHV 'DUZLQ f GLVFXVVHG WKH SULQFLSOH RI DQWLWKHVLV ZKHQ KH GHVFULEHG KRZ WKUHDW DQG DSSHDVHPHQW SRVWXUHV KDG FRPH WR H[WUHPH RSSRVLWHVf§D WKUHDWHQLQJ GRJ VWDQGV HUHFW ZKLOH D VXEPLVVLYH GRJ FURXFKHV RU UROOV RQ LWV EDFN %\

PAGE 27

PDNLQJ D PRYHPHQW PRUH UHFRJQL]DEOH WR DQRWKHU LQGLYLGXDO D GLVSOD\ EHFRPHV PRUH HIIHFWLYH LQ HOLFLWLQJ D UHVSRQVH 7KH 0DQLSXODWLRQ +\SRWKHVLV &DU\O f &KDUQRY DQG .UHEV f 'DZNLQV f 'DZNLQV DQG .UHEV f DQG +DPPHUVWHLQ f KDYH FULWLFL]HG WKH WUDGLWLRQDO YLHZSRLQW WKDW VLJQDOV IXQFWLRQ SULPDULO\ WR SURYLGH LQIRUPDWLRQ ,QVWHDG WKH\ IDYRU D VHFRQG K\SRWKHVLV WKDW VLJQDOV IXQFWLRQ WR PDQLSXODWH SURG FRHUFH RU SHUVXDGH UHFHLYHUV WR WKH DGYDQWDJH RI WKH VLJQDOHU 'DZNLQV f SLFWXUHG DQLPDOV DV PDFKLQHV GHVLJQHG WR SUHVHUYH DQG SURSDJDWH WKHLU JHQHV $V D PHDQV WR WKLV HQG DQLPDOV PD\ PDQLSXODWH ERWK ELRWLF DQG DELRWLF REMHFWV LQ WKH HQYLURQn PHQW 'DZNLQV UHJDUGHG REMHFW PDQLSXODWLRQ DV DQ H[WHQGHG H[SUHVVLRQ RU SDUW RI WKH H[WHQGHG SKHQRW\SH RI WKH DQLPDOnV JHQHV )RU H[DPSOH D PDOH ELUG GRHV QRW H[SHQG WLPH DQG HQHUJ\ LQ SK\VLFDOO\ PRYLQJ D IHPDOH WR KLV QHVW LQVWHDG KH PD\ VLW DW WKH QHVW VLWH DQG VLQJ 7KH IHPDOH PD\ UHVSRQG WR WKH VRQJ E\ PRYLQJ WRZDUG WKH PDOH )URP WKH PDOHnV SRLQW RI YLHZ FRPPXQLFDWLRQ LV FOHDUO\ PRUH HIILn FLHQW WKDQ WU\LQJ WR DFTXLUH D IHPDOH E\ IRUFH &RPPXQLFDn WLRQ LV QR ORQJHU D FRRSHUDWLYH H[FKDQJH RI LQIRUPDWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH VLJQDOHU DQG UHFHLYHU EXW D VLJQDOHU PDQLSXODWn LQJ D UHFHLYHU WR LWV RZQ DGYDQWDJH 8VXDOO\ WKH VLJQDOHU DQG UHFHLYHU EHQHILW IURP WKH FRPPXQLFDWLRQ DQG ERWK ZLOO EH VHOHFWHG WR PD[LPL]H WKHLU RZQ EHQHILW

PAGE 28

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n VKDULQJ ,QVWHDG KH DVVXPHG WKDW WKHUH ZDV QRWKLQJ WR SUHYHQW DQLPDOV IURP O\LQJ DERXW ZKDW WKH\ ZRXOG GR QH[W 0RUHRYHU IRU DQ DQLPDO WR GHFODUH LWV LQWHQWLRQV HDUO\ LQ DQ HQFRXQWHU ZRXOG EH OLNH VKRZLQJ RQHnV KDQG WR DQ RSSRQHQW DW WKH EHJLQQLQJ RI D FDUG JDPH ,I WZR DQLPDOV ZHUH FRQWHVWLQJ D UHVRXUFH E\ PHDQV RI ULWXDOL]HG GLVSOD\V LW ZRXOG QRW EHQHILW HLWKHU DQLPDO WR UHYHDO ZKHWKHU LW ZRXOG DWWDFN RU IOHH XQWLO WKH ODVW SRVVLEOH PRPHQW 7KXV 0D\QDUG 6PLWK VXJJHVWHG WKDW W\SLFDO LQWHQVLW\ KDG HYROYHG LQ WKUHDW GLVSOD\V WR FRQFHDO WKH SUHFLVH EHKDYLRU SUREDELOn LWLHV RI WKH VLJQDOHU QRW WR PDNH WKH VLJQDO PRUH HDVLO\ UHFRJQL]DEOH DV ZDV SRVWXODWHG E\ 0RUULV f 7KH +RQHVW\ +\SRWKHVLV $ WKLUG K\SRWKHVLV VXJJHVWHG E\ 0D\QDUG 6PLWK DQG 3ULFH f DQG =DKDYL f LV WKDW ULWXDOL]DWLRQ LV WKH UHVXOW RI VHOHFWLRQ E\ UHFLSLHQWV IRU UHOLDEOH VLJQDOV 'XULQJ HYROXWLRQ D QXPEHU RI GLIIHUHQW IDFWRUV FRXOG KDYH

PAGE 29

HQFRXUDJHG WKH WUHQG WRZDUG VSHFLHVW\SLFDO GLVSOD\ VWHUHRn W\S\ )HPDOHV ZRXOG KDYH LQFUHDVHG ILWQHVV LI WKH\ XVHG UHOLDEOH FXHV WR PDOH ILWQHVV DV D FULWHULRQ IRU PDWH VHOHFWLRQ ,I IHPDOHV FRXOG GHWHFW VRPH FRQVLVWHQW VSHFLHV XQLTXH WUDLW LQ WKH PDOH GLVSOD\ RI WKHLU VSHFLHV WKH\ ZRXOG DYRLG LQYHVWPHQW LQ QRQYLDEOH RU XQFRPSHWLWLYH PDOHV 5LWXDOL]DWLRQ RI GLVSOD\ EHKDYLRU GXULQJ DJRQLVWLF LQWHUDFWLRQV DOVR ZRXOG EH VHOHFWHG LI DQ DQLPDOnV LQWHQn WLRQ GHJUHH RI PRWLYDWLRQ DQG SRWHQWLDO VWUHQJWK HJ ERG\ VL]Hf LQ UHODWLRQ WR WKH YLHZHUnV VWUHQJWK ZHUH FRQn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n LW\ DV LQGLFDWRUV RI DQ LQGLYLGXDOnV VL]H VWUHQJWK DJH RU VNLOO ZKLFK FRXOG DIIHFW WKH UHFHLYHUnV FKDQFH RI YLFWRU\ LQ D FRQWHVW ,Q ERWK WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ DQG KRQHVW\ K\SRWKHVHV UHFHLYHUV ZRXOG XVH WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ LQ GHFLGLQJ

PAGE 30

KRZ WR UHVSRQG DSSURSULDWHO\ 7KH PDQLSXODWLRQ K\SRWKHVLV LQ FRQWUDVW SUHGLFWV WKDW VLJQDOHUV ZLOO QRW JLYH DZD\ DQ\ LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW WKHLU PRWLYDWLRQDO VWDWH RU IXWXUH LQWHQn WLRQV $FFRUGLQJ WR WKLV K\SRWKHVLV DJRQLVWLF GLVSOD\V VKRXOG EH SRRU SUHGLFWRUV RI HQVXLQJ DWWDFN DQG HVFDSH DQG WKHUH VKRXOG EH QR FRQVLVWHQW GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ WKH EHKDYn LRU RI WKH HYHQWXDO ZLQQHU DQG ORVHU XQWLO QHDU WKH HQG RI WKH FRQWHVW $V D UHVXOW LW LV GLIILFXOW WR SUHGLFW ZKLFK LQGLYLGXDO ZLOO ZLQ RU ORVH IURP WKH GLVSOD\V DORQH DQG LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW LQWHQWLRQV LV QRW WUDQVPLWWHG 2QH RI WKH JRDOV LQ WKLV VWXG\ ZDV WR WHVW WKH DSSOLFDELOLW\ RI WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ PDQLSXODWLRQ DQG KRQHVW\ K\SRWKHVHV WR WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ DYDLODEOH IURP PDUWLQ 3URJQH VSSf VLJQDOV

PAGE 31

7$;2120< $1' ',675,%87,21 2) 0$57,16 0DNLQJ EHKDYLRUDO FRPSDULVRQV EHWZHHQ FORVHO\ UHODWHG VSHFLHV HPSKDVL]HV WKH GLIIHUHQFHV WKDW KDYH DULVHQ VLQFH VSHFLDWLRQ LQ D SDUWLFXODU JURXS 6XFK FRPSDULVRQ PD\ QRW RQO\ UHYHDO HYROXWLRQDU\ SDWKZD\V ZLWKLQ D SDUWLFXODU JURXS EXW DOVR PD\ HOXFLGDWH JHQHUDO SDWWHUQV RI HYROXWLRQ RI EHKDYLRU 7KH WD[RQRP\ RI WKH JHQXV 3URJQH RUGHU 3DVVHULn IRUPHVf LV LQ GLVSXWH 6SHFLPHQV RI DOO PHPEHUV RI WKH JHQXV DUH VWLOO QHHGHG IURP PDQ\ SDUWV RI WKHLU UDQJHV VLQFH WKH ORFDWLRQV RI WKH ZLQWHULQJ DUHDV DQG PLJUDWRU\ URXWHV DUH QRW ZHOO NQRZQ 3HWHUV f UHFRJQL]HG ILYH VSHFLHV RI 3URJQH 3 VXELV 3XUSOH 0DUWLQf ZLWK WZR UDFHV VXELV DQG QHVSHULD 3 FKDO\EHD *UD\EUHDVWHG 0DUWLQf ZLWK WZR UDFHV FKDO\EHD DQG GRPHVWLFD 3 GRPLQLFHQVLV &DULEEHDQ 0DUWLQf ZLWK WKUHH UDFHV GRPLQLFHQVLV FU\SWROHXFD DQG VLQDORDH 3 PRGHVWD 6RXWKHUQ 0DUWLQf ZLWK WKUHH UDFHV PRGHVWD HOHJDQV DQG PXUSK\L DQG 3A WDSHUD %URZQFKHVWHG 0DUWLQf ZLWK WZR UDFHV WDSHUD DQG IXVFD +HOOPD\U f FRQVLGHUHG WKH $QWLOOHDQ IRUPV GRPLQLFHQVLV DQG FU\SWROHXFD DQG WKH ZHVW 0H[LFDQ IRUP VLQDORDH WR EH UDFHV RI VXELV $OWKRXJK 5LGJHZD\ f UHFRJQL]HG WKH FORVH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ &U\SWROHXFD

PAGE 32

GRPLQLFHQVLV DQG VLQDORDH KH JDYH HDFK VSHFLILF VWDWXV =LPPHU f DQG WKH $28 &KHFNOLVW f DOVR WUHDWHG FU\SWROHXFD DV D VHSDUDWH VSHFLHV =LPPHU JDYH GRPLQLFHQVLV VSHFLILF UDQN EXW DOVR FRQVLGHUHG WKH LVRODWHG VLQDORDH FRQVSHFLILF ZLWK GRPLQLFHQVLV 0LOOHU HW DO f GLVn DJUHHG ZLWK =LPPHU DQG KLV PDLQWHQDQFH RI VLQDORDH DV D UDFH RI GRPLQLFHQVLV VHSDUDWH IURP VXEV =LPPHU f SRLQWHG RXW WKDW WUHDWPHQW RI SRSXODWLRQV RI GRPLQLFHQVLV DV UDFHV RI VXELV VHHPHG XQZDUUDQWHG LI FKDO\EHD ZDV PDLQWDLQHG DV D GLVWLQFW VSHFLHV EHFDXVH GRPLQLFHQVLV ZDV LQWHUPHGLDWH LQ FKDUDFWHUV DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ EHWZHHQ VXELV DQG FKDO\EHD $OODQ 3KLOOLSV DQG SHUV FRPPf VXSSRUWHG =LPPHU 3KLOOLSV FROOHFWHG VSHFLPHQV RI VLQDORDH ZKLOH ZRUNLQJ LQ QRUWKHUQ 0H[LFR +H DVVLJQHG WKHP WR GRPLQLFHQVLV VWDWLQJ WKH\ ERUH QR LPSRUWDQW UHVHPEODQFH WR VXELV 7KH UHODWLRQVKLSV RI WKH UHPDLQLQJ WZR VSHFLHV RI 0DUWLQV PRGHVWD DQG WDSHUD KDYH EHHQ OLWWOH VWXGLHG +RZHYHU WKH $28 &KHFNOLVW f UHFRPPHQGV PDNLQJ WKHP WZR VSHFLHV WKH H[WUDOLPLWDO 3BAB QXB HOHJDQV DQG 3BAB P PRGHVWD 0D\U DQG 6KRUW f FRQVLGHU VXELV FKDO\EHD GRPLQLFHQVLV WDSHUD DQG PRGHVWD D VXSHUVSHFLHV DQG ZKHQ PRUH LV NQRZQ DERXW WKHLU UHODWLRQVKLSV LQ WKH DUHDV RI FRQWDFW DOO PLJKW HYHQWXDOO\ EH WUHDWHG DV VXEVSHFLHV RI VXELV DOWKRXJK WKLV VHHPV XQOLNHO\ WR PH

PAGE 33

0(7+2'6 6WXG\ $UHDV )LHOG VWXGLHV RI WKH 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ 30f ZHUH FRQGXFWHG LQ UHVLGHQWLDO EDFN\DUGV DW *DLQHVYLOOH $ODFKXD &RXQW\ )ORULGD ZDWFKHG 30V DOPRVW GDLO\ IURP )HEUXDU\ WR -XQH IURP )HEUXDU\ WR $XJXVW IURP )HEn UXDU\ WR 0DUFK DQG IURP )HEUXDU\ WR -XQH 2YHU KRXUV RI REVHUYDWLRQ ZHUH PDGH 7KH SULQFLSDO FRORQLHV RFFXSLHG PDQPDGH PDUWLQ KRXVHV RI GLIIHUHQW VL]HV DQG GHVLJQV WRWDOOLQJ QHVWLQJ FRPSDUWPHQWV 7KH PRVW VWXGLHG FRORQ\ ZDV DW WKH *DLQHVYLOOH &RXQWU\ &OXE 7KLV KRXVH FRQWDLQHG HLJKW FRPSDUWPHQWV DQG ZDV RFFXSLHG E\ VL[ SDLUV RI PDUWLQV LQ VHYHQ SDLUV LQ ILYH SDLUV LQ DQG VHYHQ SDLUV LQ 7KH SULPDU\ VWXG\ VLWH IRU *UD\EUHDVWHG 0DUWLQV *0f ZDV WKH 7ULQLGDG7H[DFR ,QF RLO UHILQHU\ DGMDFHQW WR WKH WRZQ RI 3RLQWHD3LHUUH 7ULQLGDG *0V QHVWLQJ LQ KROHV LQ EURNHQ VWHHO SLSHV ZHUH VWXGLHG IURP $SULO WR -XQH IRU DERXW KRXUV RI REVHUYDWLRQ $GGLWLRQDO REVHUYDWLRQV RI *0V QHVWLQJ DPRQJ ILVVXUHV LQ D FOLII IDFH RQ WKH QRUWKHDVW FRDVW RI *DOHUD 3RLQW 7ULQLGDG WRWDOHG KRXUV DQG ZHUH PDGH GXULQJ -XQH FROOHFWHG

PAGE 34

VXSSOHPHQWDO GDWD RQ *0V IURP -XO\ WR $XJXVW DQG DW D VHFRQGDU\ VLWH LQ GRZQWRZQ $FDSXOFR *HUUHUR 0H[LFR 7KH FHQWHU RI WKH FLW\ KDG VHYHUDO EORFNV RI WKUHH WR ILYHVWRU\ EXLOGLQJV ZKHUH ELUGV QHVWHG LQ GUDLQDJH SLSHV DQG XQGHU WKH HDYHV RI EXLOGLQJV REVHUYHG &DULEEHDQ 0DUWLQV &0f GDLO\ DW D KHFWn DUH WUDFW RQ WKH QRUWKZHVW VLGH RI 3LJHRQ 3RLQW 7REDJR IURP -XQH WKURXJK -XO\ WRWDOOLQJ DERXW KRXUV RI REVHUYDWLRQ 7KH YHJHWDWLRQ ZDV SDOP WUHHV (XWHUSHV VSSf LQ JUDVV\ FOHDULQJV ZLWK D IHZ GHQVH SDWFKHV RI QDWLYH EURDGOHDYHG WUHHV DQG VKUXEV &0V QHVWHG LQ GHDG SDOPV LQ KROHV H[FDYDWHG E\ 5HGFURZQHG :RRGSHFNHUV 0HODQHUSHV ULEULFDSLOOXVf REVHUYHG DOO WKUHH VSHFLHV RI PDUWLQV GXULQJ WKH IROORZLQJ ILYH WKUHHKRXU WLPH SHULRGV 'DZQ DQG GXVN 1LJKW EHKDYLRU ZDV PRQLWRUHG RQFH D ZHHN ZLWK D IODVKOLJKW XQWLO ELUGV IOHGJHG 0DWHULDOV $OXPLQXP 30 KRXVHV LQ )ORULGD ZHUH ORZHUHG LQ WHOHVFRSn LQJ SROHV DQG GRRUSDQHOV ZHUH UDLVHG WR UHFRUG QHVW GDWD /DGGHUV ZHUH XVHG WR UHDFK 30V QHVWLQJ LQ JRXUGV DQG ZRRGHQ KRXVHV DQG QHVW FRQWHQWV ZHUH REVHUYHG ZLWK D IODVKOLJKW $ VPDOO PRYDEOH GHQWDO PLUURU DWWDFKHG WR D ILVKLQJ SROH ZDV XVHG ZLWK D IODVKOLJKW WR REVHUYH WKH FRQWHQWV RI *0 QHVWV LQ EURNHQ SLSHV 1HVW FRQWHQWV RI *0V QHVWLQJ LQ SDOP

PAGE 35

WUHHV DFFHVVLEOH E\ ODGGHU ZHUH H[DPLQHG ZLWK D IODVKOLJKW DQG D GHQWDO PLUURU $Q REVHUYDWLRQ EOLQG ZDV QRW XVHG 0\ SUHVHQFH GLG QRW REYLRXVO\ DIIHFW WKH ELUGVn EHKDYLRU DV ORQJ DV ZDV WR PHWHUV DZD\ )LHOG QRWHV ZHUH HLWKHU ZULWWHQ GLUHFWO\ RU GLFWDWHG LQWR D SRUWDEOH FDVVHWWH UHFRUGHU IRU ODWHU WUDQn VFULSWLRQ /LQH GUDZLQJV DQG GLDJUDPV ZHUH PDGH IURP ILHOG QRWHV IUDPHV RI PP PRYLH ILOP RU PP VWLOO SKRWRJUDSKV 6XSHU PRYLH ILOP WRWDOLQJ PHWHUV ZDV WDNHQ DW IUDPHV SHU VHFRQG XVLQJ D *$) 67 PRYLH FDPHUD DQG ZDV DQDO\]HG XVLQJ D %HOO DQG +RZHOO = VWRSDFWLRQ SURMHFn WRU 7DSH UHFRUGLQJV RI WKH YRFDOL]DWLRQV ZHUH PDGH XVLQJ D 1DJUD RSHQUHHO UHFRUGHU DW FPV RU ZLWK 6XSHUVFRSH & 8KHU &5 DQG 6RQ\ 0RGHO 7& FDVVHWWH UHFRUGHUV DW FPV 5HFRUGHUV ZHUH FRXSOHG ZLWK D 6HQQKHLVHU RU D .80( XQLGLUHFWLRQDO FRQGHQVRU PLFURSKRQH D 'DQ *LEVRQ (30 0RGHO 3 SDUDEROLF PLFURSKRQH RU D 5HDOLVn WLF VXSHU FDUGLRLG FRQGHQVRU PLFURSKRQH 9RFDOL]DWLRQV ZHUH DQDO\]HG XVLQJ D .D\ (OHPHWULFV $ 6RQDJUDSK DQGRU D 6SHFWUDO '\QDPLFV 5HDO 7LPH $QDO\]HU +RSNLQV HW DO f 0RGHO 6' && $OO WDSHV PDGH GXULQJ WKLV VWXG\ ZHUH GHSRVLWHG LQ WKH %LRDFRXVWLFV $UFKLYHV RI WKH )ORULGD 6WDWH 0XVHXP *DLQHVYLOOH )ORULGD &RORUPDUNLQJ FRQVLVWHG RI VSUHDGLQJ HQDPHO PRGHO DLUSODQH SDLQW RQ 30 DQG *0 IHHW UHPLJHV DQG UHWULFHV 7KH FRORUPDUNLQJ WHFKQLTXH KDG OLWWOH REVHUYDEOH HIIHFW RQ

PAGE 36

ELUG EHKDYLRU RWKHU WKDQ WKH ELUGV RFFDVLRQDOO\ SHFNLQJ DW WKHLU IHHW WR UHPRYH WKH SDLQW ZDV XQDEOH WR FRORUPDUN &0V EXW QDWXUDO YDULDWLRQV LQ WKH SOXPDJH SDWWHUQ RI WKH YHQWUDO VXUIDFH VHUYHG WR LGHQWLI\ D QXPEHU RI ELUGV $OO 30 PDOHV ZLWK HQWLUHO\ GDUNEOXH IHDWKHUV LH DW OHDVW WZR \HDUV ROGf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
PAGE 37

HVWDEOLVKPHQW RU WKH GDWH RI SDLU ERQG IRUPDWLRQ 'XULQJ WKLV VWXG\ *0V DQG &0V ZHUH DOUHDG\ DW WKH EUHHGLQJ VLWHV ZKHQ DUULYHG DOVR GHWHUPLQHG WKH SURSRUWLRQ RI WLPH WKDW PDOHV VSHQW RQ WKH WHUULWRU\ VLQJLQJ DQG GHIHQGLQJ LQFOXGLQJ VLOHQW SHULRGV RI DOHUW SHUFKLQJf DQG WKH SURSRUWLRQ RI WLPH WKDW WKH\ VSHQW SUHHQLQJ ORDILQJ LQDFn WLYLW\ H[FHHGLQJ VHFRQGVf IRUDJLQJ DQG IO\LQJ QHDU WKH FRORQ\ 3K\VLFDO GLVSOD\V ZHUH QDPHG DFFRUGLQJ WR WKHLU FKDUDFWHULVWLF PRWRU SDWWHUQV 9RFDO GLVSOD\V ZHUH QDPHG DFFRUGLQJ WR WKHLU RQRPDWRSRHLF VRXQGV $ VLJQDOHUUHFHLYHU UHIHUHQFH V\VWHP ZDV DGRSWHG HJ VLJQDOHU GLUHFWV EHKDYn LRU SDWWHUQ $ WR UHFHLYHU ZKLFK FDQ UHVSRQG ZLWK EHKDYLRU SDWWHUQ % 7KH PHWKRG XVHG WR GHWHUPLQH GLVSOD\ IXQFWLRQ ZDV WR GHVFULEH f WKH FRPSRQHQWV RI WKH GLVSOD\ f WKH FLUFXPVWDQFHV LQ ZKLFK WKH GLVSOD\ RFFXUUHG f WKH EHKDYn LRU DFFRPSDQ\LQJ WKH GLVSOD\ DQG f WKH EHKDYLRU VKRZQ E\ ERWK SDUWLFLSDQWV LPPHGLDWHO\ EHIRUH DQG DIWHU WKH GLVSOD\ ZDV JLYHQ 6RFLDO EHKDYLRU ZDV PRQLWRUHG E\ XVH RI IRFDOJURXS VDPSOLQJ $OWPDQQ f ,QWHUDFWLRQV ZHUH UHFRUGHG E\ QRWLQJ f WLPH RI RFFXUUHQFH f VH[ DQG LGHQWLW\ ZKHQ NQRZQ RI ERWK WKH LQGLYLGXDO WKDW LQLWLDWHG WKH LQWHUDFWLRQ DQG WKH UHFLSLHQW f WKH VHTXHQFH DQG NLQGV RI EHKDYLRUDO SDWWHUQV XVHG E\ ERWK LQGLYLGXDOV f WKH EHKDYLRU LPPHGLn DWHO\ IROORZLQJ WKH LQWHUDFWLRQ DQG f WKH EHKDYLRU RI ERWK LQGLYLGXDOV LPPHGLDWHO\ SUHFHGLQJ WKH LQWHUDFWLRQ

PAGE 38

, VWXGLHG WKH SDWWHUQV RI VRFLDO GRPLQDQFH DW DQG QHDU WKH QHVWLQJ VLWHV 7KH IUHTXHQF\ DQG RXWFRPH RI WKRVH HQFRXQWHUV ZKLFK LOOXVWUDWHG D GRPLQDQWVXERUGLQDWH UHODn WLRQVKLS ZHUH UHFRUGHG RQ PDWUL[ WDEOHV DFFRUGLQJ WR ZKLFK DQLPDO ZDV VXFFHVVIXO FROXPQVf DQG ZKLFK RQH ZDV GHIHDWHG URZVf &ULWHULD RI VXERUGLQDWLRQ LQFOXGHG WKH WXUQLQJ DZD\ RI ODWHUDO ERG\ SUHVHQWDWLRQ DYRLGDQFH RU IOHHLQJ RI D PDUWLQ UHODWLYH WR WKH DSSURDFK RI DQRWKHU LQGLYLGXDO 6FRUHV IRU GRPLQDQFH DQG VXERUGLQDQFH ZHUH FDOFXODWHG IRU HDFK DQLPDO DV WKH UDWLR RI LWV ZLQV RU ORVVHV UHVSHFn WLYHO\ LQ DJJUHVVLYH LQWHUDFWLRQV WR WKH WRWDO QXPEHU RI HQFRXQWHUV LQ ZKLFK LW ZDV HQJDJHG 7KLV SURYLGHG D EDVLV IRU UDQNLQJ WKH DQLPDOV IRU GRPLQDQFH RU VXERUGLQDQFH 7KH GLVFHUQHG GRPLQDQFH VWUXFWXUH WKHUHIRUH ZDV FRQVLGHUHG DQ DJRQLVWLF KLHUDUFK\ 'HDJ f 7KUHH FODVVHV RI SDUWLFLSDQWV LQ DJRQLVWLF HQFRXQWHUV ZHUH FRQVLGHUHG f HQFRXQWHUV EHWZHHQ PDOHV PDOHPDOHf f HQFRXQWHUV EHWZHHQ IHPDOHV IHPDOHIHPDOHf DQG f HQFRXQWHUV LQ ZKLFK D PDOH GLUHFWHG DQ DFW WRZDUG D IHPDOH PDOHIHPDOHf )HPDOHGLUHFWHG DFWV WRZDUG PDOHV ZHUH QRW LQFOXGHG EHFDXVH RI WKHLU ORZ IUHTXHQF\ 5DWHV RI DJRQLVWLF LQWHUDFWLRQV IRU HDFK VH[ FODVV ZHUH FDOFXODWHG E\ GLYLGLQJ WKH QXPEHU RI DJRQLVWLF HQFRXQWHUV WKDW RFFXUUHG LQ D VSHFLILF VH[ FODVV E\ WKH QXPEHU RI SDLUKRXUV RI REVHUYDn WLRQ IRU WKDW FODVV 7KH QXPEHU RI SDLUKRXUV RI REVHUYDn WLRQ ZDV D PHDVXUH RI WKH WLPH DYDLODEOH WR DQ\ SDLU RI

PAGE 39

DQLPDOV IRU SRWHQWLDO LQWHUDFWLRQV DQG ZDV FDOFXODWHG IRU HDFK FODVV IROORZLQJ WKH PHWKRG RI 6WUXKVDNHU f &ULWHULD IRU 5HFRJQL]LQJ 'LVSOD\ 8QLWV 7KH VWXG\ RI ULWXDOL]HG EHKDYLRU SDWWHUQV LQYROYHV DQ HWKRORJLFDO GHVFULSWLRQ RI HDFK SDWWHUQ WHVWV WR VKRZ WKDW WKH SDWWHUQ LV HIIHFWLYH LQ FRPPXQLFDWLRQ DQG PHDVXUHPHQWV DQG FRPSDULVRQV RI WKH SDWWHUQ ZLWK RWKHU SDWWHUQV WR VXJJHVW LWV RULJLQ +RZHYHU YDULDWLRQ LQ IRUP RI GLVSOD\ EHKDYLRU UDLVHV VHYHUDO GLIILFXOW SUREOHPV IRU REVHUYHUV ZKR ZLVK WR GHVFULEH GLVSOD\ EHKDYLRU DQG WR GHWHUPLQH WKH QXPEHU RI GLVSOD\ XQLWV LQ D VSHFLHVn UHSHUWRLUH ,Q SUDFWLFH WZR W\SHV RI EHKDYLRUDO FODVVLILFDWLRQV PD\ EH GLVWLQJXLVKHG RQH LQYROYHV GHVFULSWLRQ E\ PRWRU SDWWHUQ DQG WKH RWKHU LQYROYHV GHVFULSWLRQ E\ FRQVHTXHQFH +LQGH f ,Q WKH ILUVW PHWKRG DQ DWWHPSW LV PDGH WR GHVFULEH WKH DFWXDO SDWWHUQ RI PXVFOH PRYHPHQWV PDGH E\ WKH DQLPDO ZLWK OLWWOH UHIHUHQFH WR WKH HIIHFWV RI WKH EHKDYLRU RQ WKH HQYLURQPHQW 7HUPV VXFK DV ZLQJ IOLFN DQG ELOOn VQDSSLQJ DUH RI WKLV W\SH :KHQ FODVVLI\LQJ E\ FRQVHn TXHQFH WKH REVHUYHU UHFRUGV WKH HIIHFW RI WKH EHKDYLRU RQ WKH HQYLURQPHQW 7KXV RQH PD\ XVH FDWHJRULHV RI EHKDYLRU VXFK DV DQ DQLPDO VWD\LQJ SXW RU UHWUHDWLQJ ,Q WKLV FDVH RQH HPSKDVL]HV WKH LPSRUWDQW FRQVHTXHQFHV DQG GLUHFWHGQHVV RI EHKDYLRU ,Q WKLV VWXG\ WKH WZR W\SHV RI GHVFULSWLRQ LQWHUJUDGH WKRXJK HDFK H[WUHPH FDQ EH TXLWH XVHIXO LQ WKH DSSURSULDWH FLUFXPVWDQFHV

PAGE 40

4XHVWLRQV DERXW KRZ PXFK VWHUHRW\S\ LV W\SLFDO RI GLVSOD\V DQG KRZ PXFK VWHUHRW\S\ LV QHFHVVDU\ WR MXVWLI\ FDOOLQJ WKH EHKDYLRU D GLVSOD\ DUH XQGHU LQFUHDVLQJ GLVn FXVVLRQ LQ HWKRORJ\ SHUV FRPP %URFNPDQQ 6FKOHLGW f 6RPH GHJUHH RI VWHUHRW\S\ VHHPV QHFHVVDU\ LQ RUGHU IRU GLVSOD\V WR EH GLVWLQJXLVKDEOH IURP RWKHU VWLPXOL FRPSHWLQJ IRU WKH DWWHQWLRQ RI WKH UHFHLYHU ,QGHHG RQH VHFRQGDU\ SXUSRVH RI WKLV VWXG\ LV WR PHDVXUH KRZ PXFK HYROXWLRQDU\ PRGLILFDWLRQ LV UHTXLUHG EHIRUH D EHKDYLRU SDWWHUQ LV FDOOHG D VLJQDO PDGH SRVLWLRQ PHDVXUHPHQWV IURP PP SKRWRJUDSKV DQG HQODUJHG GUDZLQJV WUDFHG IURP WKH SURMHFWLRQ RI LQGLYLGXDO IUDPHV RI PP ILOP 7ZR W\SHV RI PRYHPHQWV ZHUH PHDVXUHG f PRYHPHQWV RI WKH KHDG ELOO WUXQN ZLQJV WDLO DQG OHJV GXULQJ DJRQLVWLF LQWHUDFWLRQV DQG f WKH VDPH PRYHn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f WR PHDVXUH KRZ IL[HG RU VWHUHRW\SHG D EHKDYLRU SDUWLFXODUO\ D GLVSOD\ ZDV UHODWLYH WR RWKHU EHKDYLRU SDWWHUQV 6FKOHLGW f

PAGE 41

)LJXUH 6FKHPDWLF RXWOLQH VKRZLQJ KRZ ERG\ DQG OLPE SRVLWLRQV ZHUH PHDVXUHG

PAGE 42

6LJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ &9V ZHUH GHWHUPLQHG XVLQJ WKH F WHVW VWDWLVWLF 'DZNLQV t 'DZNLQV f F &9&9f ZKHUH 6FY &9 6FYA6FY 1 7KH SUREDELOLW\ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK F ZDV REWDLQHG IURP WKH WDEOH IRU WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI W 8VLQJ WKLV PHWKRG FRXOG WHVW IRU D VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ WKH &9V IRU EHKDYLRU SDWWHUQV XVHG LQ GLIIHUHQW FRQWHVWV DOVR PHDVXUHG FHUWDLQ DGGLWLRQDO FKDQJHV LQ EHKDYLRU SDWWHUQV f FKDQJHV LQ VSHHG RI H[HFXWLRQ RI PRYHPHQWV f IUHH]LQJ RI PRYHPHQWV f H[DJJHUDWLRQ RI VRPH FRPSRQHQWV RI PRYHn PHQWV f RPLVVLRQ RI FRPSRQHQWV RI PRYHPHQWV DQG f GHFUHDVHV LQ YDULDELOLW\ RI PRYHPHQWV

PAGE 43

7(50,12/2*< 9RFDO 'LVSOD\V 6KLRYLW] f UHILQHG WKH GHILQLWLRQV RI %RQGHVVRQ DQG 'DYLV f LQ DQ DWWHPSW WR VWDQGDUGL]H ELUG YRFDOL]Dn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

PAGE 44

WKDW RI RWKHU ZRUNHUV VHH $UPVWURQJ f 3KUDVH $ QDWXUDO VHFWLRQ RI WKH VRQJ D JURXSLQJ RI V\OODEOHV LQ D FKDUDFWHULVWLF WHPSRUDO VHTXHQFH 6RQJ 7\SH 8VHG LQWHUFKDQJHDEO\ ZLWK WKHPH D IL[HG VHTXHQFH RI SKUDVHV FKDUDFWHUL]LQJ D SRSXODWLRQ RU JURXS RI SRSXODWLRQV 7ULOO $ FRQVHFXWLYH VHULHV RI VLPLODU V\OODEOHV UHSHDWHG VHULDOO\ DW DERXW WR SHU VHFRQG SURGXFLQJ D UDWWOLQJ VRXQG 1R DWWHPSW ZDV PDGH KHUH WR GHVFULEH LQ TXDQWLWDWLYH GHWDLO DOO SDUDPHWHUV RI DOO VRQJ W\SHV ,QVWHDG KDYH HPSKDn VL]HG WKRVH JHQHUDO IHDWXUHV VKDUHG E\ PRVW VRQJ W\SHV VLQFH WKH\ DSSDUHQWO\ LGHQWLI\ WKH VRQJV DV WKRVH RI 3URJQH 9LVXDO 'LVSOD\V ,Q WKH UHFHQW OLWHUDWXUH RI DQLPDO FRPPXQLFDWLRQ FHUWDLQ WHUPV KDYH FRPH WR PHDQ GLIIHUHQW WKLQJV WR GLIIHUn HQW LQYHVWLJDWRUV &DU\O 'DZNLQV t .UHEV +LQGH f )RU WKDW UHDVRQ KDYH GHILQHG DQG ZLOO XVH WKH IROORZLQJ WHUPV ,QWHQWLRQ 0RYHPHQW 7KHVH DUH LQFRPSOHWH PRYHPHQWV DQG SUHFXUVRU\ PRYHPHQWV $FW RU $FWLRQ 3DWWHUQ $ VHW RI REVHUYDEOH DFWLYLWLHV QRW DQDO\]DEOH LQWR VHSDUDWH RFFXUULQJ FRPSRn QHQWV 5XVVHOO HW DO f

PAGE 45

6LJQDO 7KH EHKDYLRU HJ SRVWXUH GLVSOD\ YRFDOL]DWLRQf WUDQVPLWWHG E\ WKH VLJQDOHU 'LVSOD\ $Q\ VWHUHRW\SHG EHKDYLRU SDWWHUQ VXFK DV YRFDO RU YLVXDO VWLPXOLf DORQH RU LQ FRPELQDn WLRQ WKDW VHUYHV D VLJQDO IXQFWLRQ WR RWKHU DQLPDOV 5LWXDOL]DWLRQ 7KH SURFHVV E\ ZKLFK D EHKDYLRU SDWWHUQ EHFRPHV VWHUHRW\SHG DQG DFTXLUHV D VLJQDO IXQFWLRQ 6LJQDOHU $Q LQGLYLGXDO ZKLFK WUDQVPLWV D VLJQDO 5HFHLYHU $Q LQGLYLGXDO ZKRVH SUREDELOLW\ RI EHKDYLQJ LQ D SDUWLFXODU ZD\ LV DOWHUHG E\ D VLJQDO &RQWH[W 7KH VHWWLQJ LQ ZKLFK D VLJQDO LV WUDQVPLWWHG DQG UHFHLYHG &RPPXQLFDWLRQ $FWLRQ RQ WKH SDUW RI DQ RUJDQLVP VLJQDOHUf WKDW DOWHUV WKH SDWWHUQ RI EHKDYLRU LQ DQRWKHU RUJDQLVP UHFHLYHUf 7HUULWRU\ $ UHVWULFWHG DUHD GHIHQGHG E\ DQ DQLPDO DJDLQVW LQWUXGHUV XVXDOO\ IRU EUHHGLQJ SXUn SRVHV 'RPLQDQFH +LHUDUFK\ $ VRFLDO UDQNLQJ IRUPHG WKURXJK DJRQLVWLF EHKDYLRU LQ ZKLFK LQGLYLGXDOV DUH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK HDFK RWKHU VR WKDW VRPH KDYH JUHDWHU DFFHVV WR UHVRXUFHV WKDQ GR RWKHUV $JRQLVWLF %HKDYLRU $Q\ EHKDYLRU DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKUHDW ILJKWLQJ DQG UHWUHDW

PAGE 46

$SSURDFK 0RYHPHQW RI RQH RU ERWK PDUWLQV WRZDUG HDFK RWKHU EXW ZLWK QR DWWHPSW WR VWULNH ZLWK WKH ELOO 7KUHDW ,QGLFDWHV WKDW WKH VLJQDOHU FRXOG DFW DJJUHVVLYHO\ 6XSSODQW 5HSODFLQJ DQ LQGLYLGXDO DW D JLYHQ SODFH ,Q WKLV DFWLRQ RQH PDUWLQ PRYHV WR WKH SODFH ZKHUH D VHFRQG PDUWLQ LV SHUFKHG EXW GRHV QRW IROORZ WKH VXSSODQWHG LQGLYLGXDO $WWDFN 0RYHPHQW WRZDUG DQ LQGLYLGXDO WKDW FXOPLQDWHV LQ SK\VLFDO FRQWDFW EHWZHHQ LQGLYLGXDOV )LJKW :KHQ D UHFHLYHU UHWDOLDWHV WR D VLJQDOHU ERWK PDUWLQV DWWDFN &KDVH 3XUVXLW RI D VHFRQG PRYLQJ LQGLYLGXDO 5HWUHDW %HKDYLRU LQ ZKLFK RQH ELUG PRYHV DZD\ IURP DQRWKHU LQ UHVSRQVH WR DQ DWWDFN RU GLVSOD\ 6WD\ 1HLWKHU DWWDFNLQJ QRU UHWUHDWLQJ EXW UHPDLQLQJ VWDWLRQDU\ ,QDFWLYH $ ELUG UHVWLQJ DQG QRW HQJDJHG LQ REYLRXV LQWHUDFWLRQV IRU VHFRQGV RU PRUH

PAGE 47

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n HUDEO\ LQ IRUP DQG LQWHQVLW\ PDNLQJ FODVVLILFDWLRQ PRUH GLIILFXOW %\ VSHFLI\LQJ SUHFLVHO\ ZKDW DQ DQLPDO GRHV DQG GRHV QRW GR RQH FDQ EHJLQ WR FXW GRZQ WKH QXPEHU RI WHQDEOH K\SRWKHVHV DERXW XQGHUO\LQJ IXQFWLRQ 7KH ILUVW SDUW RI WKLV VWXG\ ZDV GHVLJQHG WR REWDLQ VRPH PHDVXUH RI VWHUHRW\S\ DQG WR FRPSDUH ULWXDOL]DWLRQ LQ WKHVH WKUHH PDUWLQ VSHFLHV 7KH VHFRQG SDUW FRQWDLQV GHVFULSWLRQV RI EHKDYLRUDO DFWV 6RPH RI WKHVH DFWV KDYH EHHQ GHVFULEHG SUHYLRXVO\ $OOHQ t 1LFH %URZQ D E -RKQVWRQ t +DUG\ f EXW DUH GHVFULEHG DJDLQ WR EULQJ RXW WKH LPSRUWDQW IHDWXUHV HPSKDVL]HG LQ WKLV VWXG\

PAGE 48

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f 6WHUHRW\S\ RI %HKDYLRU 3DWWHUQV 6RPH GHJUHH RI VWHUHRW\S\ LV QHFHVVDU\ LQ RUGHU IRU GLVSOD\V WR EH GLVWLQJXLVKHG IURP RWKHU VWLPXOL FRPSHWLQJ IRU WKH DWWHQWLRQ RI WKH UHFHLYHU $ UHVHDUFKHU KDV WR GHDO ZLWK WKH TXHVWLRQ RI KRZ PXFK VWHUHRW\S\ LV UHTXLUHG WR FRQVWLWXWH WKH FULWHULD IRU FDOOLQJ D EHKDYLRU SDWWHUQ D VLJQDO 7KH FRHIILFLHQW RI YDULDWLRQ &9f KDV EHHQ XVHG WR PHDVXUH KRZ IL[HG RU VWHUHRW\SHG D EHKDYLRU SDUWLFXODUO\ D GLVSOD\ LV UHODWLYH WR RWKHU EHKDYLRU SDWWHUQV 6FKOHLGW f 7KH &9 LV WKH VWDQGDUG GHYLDWLRQ H[SUHVVHG DV D SHUFHQWDJH RI WKH PHDQ &9 6'[O22[ +D]OHWW f 7KH JUHDWHU WKH &9 WKH JUHDWHU WKH YDULDELOLW\ LQ WKH GDWD VHW %HNRII f GLVFXVVHG ZKHWKHU LW PLJKW EH SRVVLEOH WR GHILQH VRPH FXWRII SRLQW EHWZHHQ WKH FDWHJRULHV RI IL[HG DQG YDULDEOH +H ZDV DVNLQJ ZKHWKHU LW ZRXOG EH SRVVLEOH WR VHW XS D VWDQGDUG &9 DJDLQVW ZKLFK D YDULHW\ RI GDWD

PAGE 49

FRXOG EH FRPSDUHG )RU H[DPSOH LW PLJKW EH WKH FDVH WKDW RQH FRXOG UHFRJQL]H D EHKDYLRU SDWWHUQ DQG GLIIHUHQWLDWH LW IURP DQRWKHU EHKDYLRU SDWWHUQ ZKHQ WKH &9 LV OHVV WKDQ b 6FKOHLGW f 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG ELUGV DUH XQGRXEWHGO\ EHWWHU SHUFHLYHUV RI WKHLU RZQ FRQVSHFLILF EHKDYLRU WKDQ DUH KXPDQV DQG D b YDULDELOLW\ PD\ EH WRR KLJK $FFRUGLQJ WR %DUORZ f DQG :LOH\ f WKH PD[LPXP YDOXHV RI &9 WKDW PLJKW EH DOORZDEOH LQ RUGHU WR UHIHU WR D EHKDYLRU SDWWHUQ DV VWHUHRW\SHG DUH XQGHFLGHG DQG UHODWLYHO\ DUELWUDU\ 6LQFH WKH FRPPXQLFDWLYH YDOXH RI PDQ\ GLVSOD\V YDULHV ZLWK FRQWH[W JXLGHOLQHV IRU WKH XVH RI &9 PHDVXUHV DOVR ZRXOG EH GLIILFXOW WR IRUPXODWH 7KHUHIRUH LW VHHPV SUHPDWXUH WR DWWHPSW WR GHILQH D FXWRII SRLQW EHWZHHQ IL[HG DQG YDULDEOH ZKHQ IXUWKHU TXDQWLWDWLYH UHVHDUFK FRXOG DQVZHU TXHVWLRQV GHDOLQJ ZLWK PRWRU SDWWHUQ YDULDWLRQ 7R REWDLQ VRPH PHDVXUH RI VWHUHRW\S\ WRRN PRWLRQ SLFWXUH ILOPV RI QRQDJRQLVWLF PRYHPHQWV DQG DJRQLVWLF LQWHUDFWLRQV RI PDUWLQV 7KH SRVLWLRQ PHDVXUHPHQWV ZHUH WDNHQ DV RXWOLQHG LQ )LJXUH $W WKLV VWDJH RI WKH DQDO\VLV GLG QRW FODVVLI\ PRYHPHQWV LQWR WKH GLVSOD\ FDWHJRULHV VLQFH WKLV ZRXOG KDYH ELDVHG WKH UHVXOWV VHH VHFWLRQ RQ GHVFULSWLRQ RI GLVSOD\Vf 7KDW LV VRPH RI WKH PRYHPHQWV RI WKH ERG\ DQG OLPEV WKDW RFFXUUHG LQ DJRQLVWLF VLWXDWLRQV ZHUH QRW FOHDU KHDG SUHVHQWDWLRQ RU ERG\ H[WHQVLRQ GLVSOD\V 1HYHUWKHOHVV DOO PRYHPHQWV ZHUH LQFOXGHG LQ WKH DQDO\VLV PDNLQJ WKH GDWD PRUH FRQIXVLQJ

PAGE 50

WKDQ LI FOHDQHG XS E\ H[FOXVLRQ RI SDWWHUQV WKDW GLG QRW ILW ,Q 7DEOH WKH PHDQV VWDQGDUG GHYLDWLRQV DQG FRHIILFLHQWV RI YDULDELOLW\ RI WKH ILQDO SRVLWLRQ DQG GXUDWLRQ RI PRYHPHQWV RI WKH GLIIHUHQW PRWRU SDWWHUQV DUH SUHVWQHG ,Q 7DEOH WKH GLIIHUHQFHV LQ WKH YDULDQFHV RI WKH PRYHPHQWV ZHUH WHVWHG XVLQJ WKH F VWDWLVWLF IRU WKH ILQDO SRVLWLRQ DQG GXUDWLRQ RI PRYHPHQWV $V VKRZQ LQ 7DEOH WKH ILQDO SRVWXUH RI WKH ERG\ IRU PRYHPHQWV H[HFXWHG GXULQJ DJRQLVWLF LQWHUDFWLRQV ZDV VLJQLIn LFDQWO\ OHVV YDULDEOH PRUH VWHUHRW\SHGf WKDQ WKH ILQDO SRVWXUH RI WKH ERG\ GXULQJ QRQDJRQLVWLF LQWHUDFWLRQV VXFK DV GXULQJ ORFRPRWLRQ RU ORDILQJ 7KH VSHHG RI PRYHPHQW DOVR ZDV VLJQLILFDQWO\ OHVV YDULDEOH IRU DJRQLVWLF ERG\ PRYHn PHQWV 7KH ILQDO SRVWXUH RI WKH KHDG GXULQJ DJJUHVVLYH DQG DSSHDVHPHQW LQWHUDFWLRQV ZDV VLJQLILFDQWO\ OHVV YDULDEOH WKDQ WKH SRVWXUH RI KHDG PRYHPHQWV SHUIRUPHG GXULQJ QRQn DJRQLVWLF VLWXDWLRQV )RU WKH WDLO PRYHPHQWV WKH GLIIHUn HQFHV LQ SRVLWLRQ YDULDQFH ZHUH VLJQLILFDQW ZKLOH GLIIHUHQFHV LQ GXUDWLRQ RI WDLO PRYHPHQWV ZHUH QRW VLJQLIn LFDQW IRXQG WKH ILQDO SRVLWLRQ RI WKH ZLQJ WR EH OHVV YDULDEOH LQ DJJUHVVLYH LQWHUDFWLRQV WKDQ WKH ILQDO SRVLWLRQ RI ZLQJ PRYHPHQWV LQYROYHG LQ QRQDJRQLVWLF VLWXDWLRQV 7KH ILQDO SRVLWLRQ RI WKH ZLQJV GXULQJ DSSHDVHPHQW LQWHUDFWLRQV ZDV VLJQLILFDQWO\ OHVV VWHUHRW\SHG 7KHUH ZDV QR GLIIHUHQFH LQ WKH VSHHG RI ZLQJ PRYHPHQW GXULQJ HLWKHU DJRQLVWLF RU QRQDJRQLVWLF VLWXDWLRQV ,W ZDV LPSRUWDQW WKDW WKH PRYHPHQW ZLWK WKH KLJKHVW GHJUHH RI VWHUHRW\S\ WKDW RI WKH ELOO

PAGE 51

7DEOH &RPSDULVRQV RI $JRQLVWLF DQG 1RQDJRQLVWLF %RG\ DQG /LPE 0RYHPHQW )LQDO 3RVLWLRQ DQG 'XUDWLRQ RI 0RYHPHQWV LQ 6HFRQGV )LQDO SRVLWLRQ GHJUHHVf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

PAGE 52

7DEOH &RQWLQXHG )LQDO SRVLWLRQ GHJUHHVf 'XUDWLRQ 1 0HDQ 6' &9 0HDQ 6' &9 %LOOQRQDJRQLVWLF %LOODJJUHVVLYH %LOODSSHDVHPHQW 7DLQRQDJRQLVWLF 7DLODJJUHVVLYH 7DLODSSHDVHPHQW :LQJQRQDJRQLVWLF :LQJDJJUHVVLYH :LQJDSSHDVHPHQW

PAGE 53

7DEOH &RPSDULVRQV RI 9DULDQFHV RI $JRQLVWLF DQG 1RQ DJRQLVWLF 0RYHPHQWV )LQDO 3RVLWLRQ 'XUDWLRQ F UDWLR S F UDWLR S 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ %RG\ $JJUHVVLYHQRQDJRQLVWLF $SSHDVHPHQWQRQDJRQLVWLF +HDG $JJUHVVLYHQRQDJRQLVWLF $SSHDVHPHQWQRQDJRQLVWLF %LOO $JJUHVVLYHQRQDJRQLVWLF $SSHDVHPHQWQRQDJRQLVWLF 7DLO $JJUHVVLYHQRQDJRQLVWLF $SSHDVHPHQWQRQDJRQLVWLF :LQJ $JJUHVVLYHQRQDJRQLVWLF $SSHDVHPHQWQRQDJRQLVWLF *UD\EUHDVWHG 0DUWLQ %RG\ $JJUHVVLYHQRQDJRQLVWLF $SSHDVHPHQWQRQDJRQLVWLF +HDG $JJUHVVLYHQRQDJRQLVWLF $SSHDVHPHQWQRQDJRQLVWLF %LOO $JJUHVVLYHQRQDJRQLVWLF $SSHDVHPHQWQRQDJRQLVWLF 7DLO $JJUHVVLYHQRQDJRQLVWLF $SSHDVHPHQWQRQDJRQLVWLF :LQJ $JJUHVVLYHQRQDJRQLVWLF $SSHDVHPHQWQRQDJRQLVWLF &DULEEHDQ 0DUWLQ %RG\ $JJUHVVLYHQRQDJRQLVWLF $SSHDVHPHQWQRQDJRQLVWLF +HDG $JJUHVVLYHQRQDJRQLVWLF $SSHDVHPHQWQRQDJRQLVWLF &RQWLQXHG

PAGE 54

7DEOH &RQWLQXHG %LOO $JJUHVVLYHQRQDJRQLVWLF $SSHDVHPHQWQRQDJRQLVWLF 7DLO $JJUHVVLYHQRQDJRQLVWLF $SSHDVHPHQWQRQDJRQLVWLF :LQJ $JJUHVVLYHQRQDJRQLVWLF $SSHDVHPHQWQRQDJRQLVWLF )LQDO 3RVLWLRQ 'XUDWLRQ UDWLR 3 F UDWLR 3 L

PAGE 55

DOVR ZDV WKH PRYHPHQW WKDW HIIHFWHG WKH JUHDWHVW FKDQJH LQ WKH EHKDYLRU RI WKH UHFHSLHQW PDUWLQ LQ DOO WKUHH VSHFLHV VHH VHFWLRQ RQ DQDO\VLV RI GLVSOD\Vf ,Q DGGLWLRQ WR GDWD RQ YDULDELOLW\ RI PRYHPHQW WKH ILOPV DOVR SURYLGH LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ RWKHU GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ GLVSOD\ PRYHPHQWV DQG QRQGLVSOD\ PRYHPHQWV LQ 3URJQH $V QRWHG E\ 0F.LQQH\ f H[DJJHUDWLRQ RI RQH FRPSRQHQW RI D PRYHPHQW PD\ RFFXU GXULQJ ULWXDOL]DWLRQ :KHQ FRPSDULQJ WKH IRUZDUG PRYHPHQW RI WKH ERG\ GXULQJ DJRQLVWLF DQG QRQDJRQ LVWLF VLWXDWLRQV WKH ERG\ ZDV JUHDWHU WKDQ WKH QRUPDO SRVLWLRQ LQ ERWK ILQDO SRVLWLRQ r IURP WKH VXEVWUDWH FRPSDUHG WR r DYHUDJH IRU QRQDJRQLVWLF PRYHPHQWVf DQG GHJUHHV RI DUF WUDYHUVHG IURP WKH SHUSHQGLFXODU DYHUDJH r IRU DJJUHVVLYH PRYHPHQWV DYHUDJH r IRU ZDONLQJ PRYHn PHQWVf +RZHYHU WKH UDQJH RI QRQGLVSOD\ PRYHPHQWV ZDV JUHDWHU WKDQ WKDW RI GLVSOD\ PRYHPHQWV 6LPLODUO\ WKH DYHUDJH ILQDO SRVLWLRQV RI WKH KHDG DQG ELOO ZHUH JUHDWHU IRU DJJUHVVLYH GLVSOD\ PRYHPHQWV WKDQ IRU QRQGLVSOD\ PRYHn PHQWV 7DEOHV DQG f 'XULQJ DSSHDVHPHQW GLVSOD\V WKH ERG\ KHDG DQG ELOO ZHUH UDLVHG ODWHUDOO\ WR D SRVLWLRQ r s XS IURP WKH GRUVDOYHQWUDO D[LV RI WKH ELUGnV ERG\ 7KH ILQDO SRVLWLRQ RI WKH ERG\ KHDG DQG ELOO DOVR ZHUH VLJQLILFDQWO\ KLJKHU LQ GHJUHHV IURP WKH VXEVWUDWH LQ DSSHDVHPHQW VLWXWDWLRQV WKDQ IRU PRYHPHQWV LQYROYHG LQ ORDILQJ RU DOHUW ZDWFKLQJ 7DEOHV DQG f $QRWKHU FKDUDFWHULVWLF RI ULWXDOL]HG PRYHPHQWV PHQn WLRQHG E\ 0RUULV f ZDV WKH IUHH]LQJ RI FRPSRQHQWV RI

PAGE 56

WKH PRYHPHQWV )RU H[DPSOH LQ WKH PRYHPHQWV FRQFHUQHG ZLWK ZDONLQJ WKH QXPEHU RI IUDPHV RI ILOP VKRZLQJ WKH 30 ERG\ KHDG DQG ELOO LQ WKH ILQDO SRVLWLRQ ZDV YHU\ VPDOO f§ IUDPHVf ,Q FRQWUDVW WKH KHDG ZDV KHOG LQ WKH IRUZDUG SRVWLRQ EHWZHHQ DQG VHFRQGV IUDPHVf ZKLOH WKH ERG\ ZDV KHOG LQ WKH IRUZDUG SRVLWLRQ EHWZHHQ DQG VHFRQGV IUDPHVf IRU DJJUHVVLYH GLVSOD\V 'XULQJ DSSHDVHPHQW GLVSOD\V WKH KHDG ZDV KHOG DZD\ IURP DQ RSSRQHQW EHWZHHQ DQG VHFRQGV IUDPHVf ZKLOH WKH ERG\ ZDV KHOG LQ WKH RXWZDUG SRVLWLRQ EHWZHHQ DQG VHFRQGV IUDPHVf 0RUULV f QRWHG FKDQJHV LQ WKH VSHHG RI H[HFXWLRQ RI PRYHPHQWV DV DQRWKHU FKDUDFWHULVWLF RI ULWXDOL]DWLRQ )RU DOO WKUHH VSHFLHV VWXGLHG WKH DJRQLVWLF PRYHPHQWV RI WKH ERG\ KHDG DQG ELOO ZHUH SHUIRUPHG PRUH UDSLGO\ WKDQ JHQHUDO ORFRPRWRU\ PRYHPHQWV RI WKRVH OLPEV 7DEOHV DQG f )RU H[DPSOH GXULQJ 30 DJJUHVVLYH LQWHUDFWLRQV WKH KHDG ZDV UDLVHG IRUZDUG DW s VHFRQGV FRPSDUHG WR s VHFRQGV GXULQJ QRQDJRQLVWLF PRYHPHQWV F S 7DEOH f ,W LV LPSRUWDQW WR QRWH WKDW WKHUH ZDV QR VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH LQ WKH VSHHG RI PRYHPHQW IRU ZLQJ DQGRU WDLO PRYHPHQWV 7KLV IDFW VXJJHVWHG WKDW PRYHPHQW WR WKH ILQDO SRVWXUH ZDV QRW DV LPSRUWDQW DV WKH ILQDO SRVWXUH LWVHOI 6LPLODU UHVXOWV ZHUH IRXQG IRU *0 DQG &0 7DEOH DQG f

PAGE 57

'LVFXVVLRQ 7KHUH DUH IHZ LI DQ\ FRQFHSWV WKDW DUH PRUH FHQWUDO WR WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI PRGHUQ HWKRORJLFDO LGHDV WKDQ WKDW RI WKH IL[HG DFWLRQ SDWWHUQ IRU UHYLHZV VHH %DUORZ (LEO(LEHVIHOGW .UHEV t 'DYLHV 6FKOHLGW f 6WHUHRW\SHG PRWRU SDWWHUQV LQ YHUWHEUDWHV XVXDOO\ VHUYH HLWKHU IRU FRPPXQLFDWLRQ RU IRU ORFRPRWLRQ 0RUHRYHU 6FKOHLGW f VXJJHVWHG WKDW DFWLRQV WKDW RFFXUUHG DW D YHU\ KLJK IUHTXHQF\ DQGRU ZHUH DGDSWHG WR GHDO ZLWK XQLIRUP VLWXDWLRQV RU REMHFWV VXFK DV SHFNLQJ ELWLQJ VZDOORZLQJ FKHZLQJ GLJJLQJ DQG SUHHQLQJ DOVR VKRXOG EH KLJKO\ VWHUHRn W\SHG $OWKRXJK ORFRPRWRU EHKDYLRU H[KLELWHG OLWWOH YDULDn WLRQ ZLWKLQ VKRUW WLPH SHULRGV DW OHDVW LQ YHUWHEUDWHVf LW GHPRQVWUDWHG FRQVLGHUDEOH SODVWLFLW\ RYHU ORQJHU LQWHUYDOV ,Q FRQWUDVW GLVSOD\V WKDW VXEVHUYHG FRPPXQLFDWLRQ ZHUH QHDUO\ LQYDULDQW RYHU PXFK RI DQ DQLPDOnV DGXOW OLIH VSDQ 6LQFH WKH LGHD RI IL[HG DFWLRQ SDWWHUQV JHQHUDWHG FRQVLGHUDEOH FRQWURYHU\ GXULQJ WKH V DQG VXEVHTXHQW GHFDGHV $OFRFN /HKUPDQ /RUHQ] f RQH PLJKW EH VXUSULVHG WR ILQG WKDW WKHUH KDYH DFWXDOO\ EHHQ YHU\ IHZ GHWDLOHG TXDQWLWDWLYH DQDO\VHV RI DFWLRQV WKDW KDYH EHHQ FDWHJRUL]HG DV IL[HG %DUORZ f 6RPH GLVSOD\V ZHUH FOHDUO\ YHU\ IL[HG ZKHQ D VLQJOH LQGLYLGXDO ZDV VWXGLHG :LOH\ f PHDVXUHG WKH WLPH EHWZHHQ WKH ILUVW VZLVK DQG WKH ILUVW VQDS LQ VXFFHVVLYH UHSHWLWLRQV RI WKH VWUXW GLVSOD\ RI DQ LQGLYLGXDO VDJH

PAGE 58

JURXVH &HQWRFHUFXV XURSDVLDQXVf 7KH DYHUDJH LQWHUYDO ZDV VHFRQGV DQG WKH VWDQGDUG GHYLDWLRQ ZDV VHFRQGV JLYLQJ D &9 RI b 6WDPSV DQG %DUORZnV f VWXG\ RI $QROLV OL]DUG EHKYLRU VKRZHG WKDW GLVSOD\ EHKDYLRU FDQ EH H[WUHPHO\ VWHUHRW\SHG 0HDVXUHPHQWV RI WKH GXUDWLRQV RI HOHPHQWV LQ WKH VLJQDWXUH ERE GLVSOD\ RI LQGLYLGXDO OL]DUGV \LHOGHG &9nV UDQJLQJ IURP WR b 9DULDWLRQ EHWZHHQ LQGLYLGXDOV WHQGHG WR EH JUHDWHU $V %DUORZ f SRLQWHG RXW WKH GLVSOD\V RI WKH JROGHQH\H %XFHSKDOD FODQJXODf VWXGLHG E\ 'DQH :ROGRWW DQG 'UXU\ f DQG RIWHQ TXRWHG DV HVVHQWLDOO\ LQYDULDQW PRVWO\ VKRZHG &9nV RI WR b +RZHYHU WKH ERZVSLUW QRGGLQJ DQG WLFNLQJ KDG &9nV RI b b DQG b UHVSHFn WLYHO\ )LJXUHV WDNHQ IURP 'DQH DQG YDQ GHU .ORRW f IRU WKH KLJKO\ VWHUHRW\SHG KHDGWKURZ GLVSOD\ \LHOGHG D &9 RI b 7KUHH PHDVXUHV RI GXUDWLRQ WDNHQ IURP WKH VLJQDn WXUH ERE RI $QROLV E\ 6WDPSV DQG %DUORZ f JDYH &9nV UDQJLQJ IURP WR b ZKLOH WKRVH IRU WKUHH PRUSKRORJLFDO IHDWXUHV ZHUH WR b +D]OHWW f VWXGLHG WKH YDULDn ELOLW\ RI PRYHPHQWV RI WKH FKHOLSHGV DQG DPEXODWRU\ OHJV RI VSLGHU FUDEV 0LFURSK\UV ELFRUQXWXVf DQG IRXQG &9nV QHYHU OHVV WKDQ b 1RQHWKHOHVV WKH GLVSOD\V ZHUH VXIILFLHQWO\ GLIIHUHQW IURP WKH QRQGLVSOD\ EHKDYLRUV IRU ERWK KXPDQV DQG VSLGHU FUDEV WR WHOO WKHP DSDUW 7KHVH DWWHPSWV WR TXDQWLI\ WKH FRQFHSW RI WKH IL[HG DFWLRQ SDWWHUQ GHPRQVWUDWHG WKDW DOWKRXJK VRPH GLVSOD\V VKRZHG UHODWLYH IL[LW\ LGHDV DERXW LQYDULDQW VWHUHRW\S\ ZHUH QRW VXSSRUWHG

PAGE 59

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r IURP WKH VXEWUDWH DQG D VWDQGDUG GHYLDWLRQ RI RQO\ +RZHYHU WKHUH ZHUH VRPH ERG\ PRYHPHQWV VXFK DV WKRVH RI WKH ZLQJ DQG WDLOf ZKLFK DSSHDUHG LQ D UHODWLYHO\ FRQVWDQW IRUP EXW ZKLFK YDULHG LQ GXUDWLRQ $ GHWDLOHG DQDO\VLV VKRZHG WKDW WKLV YDULDWLRQ ZDV SURGXFHG E\ D GLIIHUHQFH LQ WKH VSHHG RI WKH PRYHPHQW DW WLPHV ZKLOH DW RWKHU WLPHV E\ WKH YDULDEOH OHQJWK RI WKH SDXVHV DW WKH EHJLQQLQJ DQG HQG RI WKH DFWLYH SDUW RI WKH PRYHPHQWV WKHPVHOYHV ,I WKH SDXVHV ZHUH GLVUHJDUGHG WKH GXUDWLRQ WKH ERG\ ZDV KHOG LQ DQ DJJUHVVLYH GLVSOD\ EHFDPH VHFRQGV ZLWK D VWDQGDUG GHYLDWLRQ RI s VHFRQGV 7KHUHIRUH WKH PHDVXUHPHQWV WKH PRYHPHQWVn GXUDWLRQ FRQn ILUPHG WKH LPSUHVVLRQ RI VWHUHRW\S\ 7KXV GLVSOD\

PAGE 60

PRYHPHQWV ZHUH GLVWLQJXLVKDEOH IURP QR GLVSOD\ PRYHPHQWV E\ H[DJJHUDWLRQ RI PRYHPHQW ERG\ PRYHPHQW IRUZDUG WR WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQHf H[DJJHUDWLRQ RI RQH FRPSRQHQW RI WKH SRVWXUH RSHQ ELOOf DQG E\ WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI VWHUHRW\S\ ,Q VXPPDU\ WKHUH DSSHDU WR EH H[WUHPHO\ IHZ LI DQ\ EHKDYLRU SDWWHUQV WKDW DUH DEVROXWHO\ IL[HG HJ &9 b RU HYHQ OHVV WKDQ bf ,QGHHG DFFRUGLQJ WR (LEL (LEHVIHOGW f WKH LPSOLFDWLRQ RI DEVROXWH PRUSKRORJLFDO ULJLGLW\ RI GLSOD\V ZDV XQIRUWXQDWH DQG QRW RULJLQDOO\ LQWHQGHG ,W ZRXOG EH PLVOHDGLQJ WR FRQFHQWUDWH VROHO\ RQ DWWHPSWLQJ WR SURYH VWHUHRW\S\ RU IL[LW\ ZLWKRXW GHDOLQJ ZLWK SDWHQW YDULDELOLW\ 9DULRXV IDFWRUV PD\ IDYRU YDULn DELOLW\ LQ WKH FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI GLVSOD\V )RU H[DPSOH YDULDEOH DVSHFWV PD\ EH DQWLPRQRWRQ\ GHYLFHV +DUWVKRUQH f VLQFH WRR PXFK VWHUHRW\S\ PD\ FDXVH WKH UHFHLYHU WR KDELWXDWH WR WKH VLJQDO EHIRUH UHVSRQGLQJ LQ D PDQQHU DSSURSULDWH IRU WKH VHQGHU %DUORZ f VXJJHVWHG WKDW LW PLJKW EH PRUH FRUUHFW WR GURS WKH ZRUG IL[HG DQG VXEVWLn WXWH WKH ZRUG PRGDO WR UHIHU WR WKH PRVW IUHTXHQWO\ RFFXUULQJ IRUP RI D JLYHQ DFWf 7KH WHUP PRGDO DFWLRQ SDWWHUQ ZDV PHDQW WR HPERG\ WKH LGHD WKDW ZKLOH QRW VWULFWO\ IL[HG WKHVH EHKDYLRU SDWWHUQV FRXOG EH LGHQWLILHG LQ D UHOLDEOH VWDWLVWLFDO ZD\ %DUORZnV SRLQW LV DQ LPSRUn WDQW RQH ZKHQ RQHnV PDLQ LQWHUHVW LV LQ FKRRVLQJ FDWHJRULHV IRU GDWD FROOHFWLRQ UDWKHU WKDQ LQ D SDUWLFXODU WKHRUHWLFDO IUDPHZRUN 4XDQWLWDWLYH GDWD IURP WKLV VWXG\ VXSSRUWHG %DUORZnV VXJJHVWLRQ

PAGE 61

7KH IUHTXHQW RFFXUUHQFH RI EHKDYLRU SDWWHUQV KDYLQJ WKH IROORZLQJ FKDUDFWHULVWLFV FDQ EH XVHG ZKHQ GHVFULELQJ PRGDO DFWLRQ SDWWHUQV f WKH\ DUH VSHFLHVW\SLFDO f WKH FRPSRQHQW PRYHPHQWV WKDW PDNH WKHP XS RFFXU WRJHWKHU HLWKHU VLPXOWDQHRXVO\ RU VHTXHQWLDOO\ ZLWK D KLJK GHJUHH RI SUHn GLFWDELOLW\ DQG f WKH\ DUH UHSHDWHGO\ UHFRJQL]DEOH ,Q DGGLWLRQ WR WKH WHUPLQRORJLFDO SUREOHPV LW LV LPSRUWDQW WR VWUHVV WKDW WKH PHDQLQJ RI WKH YDOXH RI &9nV ZLOO XQGRXEWHGO\ YDU\ IURP VSHFLHV WR VSHFLHV DQG IURP DFW WR DFW 'HVFULSWLRQ RI 9LVXDO 'LVSOD\V 7KH IROORZLQJ LV D OLVW DQG GHVFULSWLRQ RI WKH YLVXDO GLVSOD\V VHHQ GXULQJ WKH FRXUVH RI WKLV VWXG\ 6LPLODULWLHV EHWZHHQ WKH GLVSOD\V RI WKH WKUHH VSHFLHV VXJJHVWHG KRPROn RJRXV UHODWLRQVKLSV DQG SHUPLWWHG D SDUDOOHO FDWHJRUL]DWLRQ 7KH QDPHV RI WKH GLVSOD\V ZHUH FKRVHQ WR EH DV GHVFULSWLYH DV SRVVLEOH ZLWKRXW LPSO\LQJ PRWLYDWLRQ RU IXQFWLRQ WR WKH EHKDYLRU SDWWHUQV +RZHYHU EHIRUH D GLVFXVVLRQ RI DJRQLVWLF EHKDYLRU FDQ EH XQGHUWDNHQ WKH QRUPDO ERG\ SRVLWLRQ RI PDUWLQV PXVW EH GHVFULEHG VR WKDW LW PD\ EH FRPSDUHG ZLWK WKH SULQFLSDO GLVSOD\ SDWWHUQV )LJXUH f $OO WKUHH PDUWLQ VSHFLHV VDW LQ DQ XSULJKW SRVLWLRQ GXULQJ QRQDJRQLVWLF VLWXDWLRQV 7KH QHFN ZDV ZLWKGUDZQ WKH ELOO ZDV KHOG DSSUR[LPDWHO\ KRUL]RQn WDO DQG WKH IHDWKHUV ZHUH UHOD[HG 7KH ZLQJV ZHUH KHOG FORVH WR WKH ERG\ DQG WKH WDLO ZDV VWDWLRQDU\

PAGE 62

)LJXUH 3RVWXUHV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK ORDILQJ RU LQDFWLYLW\ $ 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ % *UD\EUHDVWHG 0DUWLQ & &DULEEHDQ 0DUWLQ

PAGE 63

+HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW ,Q DOO WKUHH VSHFLHV RI PDUWLQV WKH +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW GLVSOD\ DQG LWV YDULDQWV ZHUH IRXQG WR EH WKH FKLHI GLVSOD\V SUHFHGLQJ DWWDFN ,Q WKH PRVW FRPPRQ SRVWXUH D ELUG DVVXPHG D KRUL]RQWDO FURXFK ZLWK WKH SOXPDJH VOHHNHG DQG WKH ELOO SRLQWHG DW WKH RSSRQHQW 7KLV GLVSOD\ SUHFHGHG DQ DWWDFN DQG DSSHDUHG LQ WHUULWRULDO GHIHQVH GXULQJ WKH DSSURDFK RI D SRWHQWLDO LQWUXGHU 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ 7KH GLVSOD\ ZDV GLYLGHG LQWR WZR FDWHn JRULHV WKH ORZLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW DQG WKH KLJKLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW )LJXUH $ GQG %f ,Q WKH ORZLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW WKH FORVHG ELOO ZDV GLUHFWHG KRUL]RQWDOO\ WRZDUG WKH RSSRQHQW b RI ILOP UHFRUGV b RSHQ ELOO Q f WKH QHFN ZDV SDUWLDOO\ H[WHQGHG b b UHWUDFWHGf DQG WKH OHJV ZHUH IOH[HG bf ZLWK WKH ERG\ KHOG LQ D KRUL]RQWDO SRVLWLRQ b b XSULJKWf 7KH IHDWKHUV RI WKH FUHVW EUHDVW DQG EDFN ZHUH VOHHNHG b b FUHVW UDLVHGf ZLWK WKH ZLQJ DQG WDLO IHDWKHUV FRQWLQXDOO\ IOLFNHG bf 7KLV SRVWXUH ZDV PDLQWDLQHG IRU DW OHDVW VHFRQGV [ VHFRQGV RI ILHOG UHFRUGV Q f 7KH UHVSRQVH RI DQ LQWUXGHU ZDV WR DGYDQFH QR IXUWKHU b RI ILHOG UHFRUGV Q f RU OHDYH bf &KHU S ,OOf DQG &KRUWOH S f FDOOV RIWHQ DFFRPSDQLHG WKLV GLVSOD\ b RI ILHOG UHFRUGV Q f 6LQFH D ELUG JLYLQJ WKLV GLVSOD\ PRVW RIWHQ UHPDLQHG VWDWLRQDU\ b RI ILHOG UHFRUGV DWWDFNHG b UHWUHDWHG b Q f WKH GLVSOD\ PD\ EH LQWHUSUHWHG DV VXJJHVWLQJ D

PAGE 64

) )LJXUH 'LVSOD\V DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKUHDW EHKDYLRU $ ORZ LQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW 3XUSOH 0DUWLQf % KLJK LQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW 3XUSOH 0DUWLQf & ORZ LQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW *UD\EUHDVWHG 0DUWLQf KLJK LQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW *UD\EUHDVWHG 0DUWLQf ( YDULDWLRQ RI WKH KLJK LQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RZDUG 7KUXVW *UD\EUHDVWHG 0DUWLQf ) ORZ LQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW &DULEEHDQ 0DUWLQf KLJK LQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW &DULEEHDQ 0DUWLQf

PAGE 65

ZHDN WHQGHQF\ WR DWWDFN 7KLUW\VL[ SHUFHQW RI DOO DJRQn LVWLF HQFRXQWHUV HQGHG ZLWK WKH ZLQQHU VKRZLQJ ORZLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG WKUXVW Q f 6L[W\IRXU SHUFHQW VKRZHG QR YLVXDO GLVSOD\ Q f ,Q WKH KLJKLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW WKH ELOO ZDV KHOG FORVHG b RI ILOP UHFRUGV b RSHQ ELOO Q f LQ OLQH ZLWK WKH RSSRQHQW bf DQG WKH ERG\ ZDV DOZD\V KRUL]RQWDO bf 7KH VLJQDOHU VOHHNHG WKH IHDWKHUV RI LWV FUHVW DQG ERG\ b b MXVW FUHVWf H[WHQGHG LWV QHFN b b UHWUDFHGf DQG PRYHG IRUZDUG LQ WKH /XQJH VWULNLQJ WKH WDUJHW ELUG RQ LWV KHDG RU ERG\ bf LI LW IDLOHG WR UHWUHDW bf ,Q b RI ILOP UHFRUGV Q f RI KLJK LQWHQVLW\ HQFRXQn WHUV WKDW SUHFHGHG WKH /XQJH ELUGV KHOG WKH ZLQJV DZD\ IURP WKH VLGH ZLWK WKH SULPDULHV EDFNZDUG DQG ZLWK WKH ZLQJ DQG WDLO IHDWKHUV VWDWLRQDU\ b RI WKH WLPH ZLQJV DJDLQVW ERG\ DQG WDLO DQG ZLQJ IHDWKHUV IOLFNHGf DQG JDYH +HHKHH FDOOV S f ,Q b RI WKH ILHOG UHFRUGV Q f WKH KLJK LQWHQVLW\ GLVSOD\ ZDV IROORZHG E\ WKH RSSRQHQW UHWUHDWLQJ RU UHPDLQLQJ VWDWLRQDU\ b UHWXUQHG WKH DWWDFNf /RZLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW ZDV GLUHFWHG E\ PDOHV WRZDUG ERWK PDOHV b RI ILHOG UHFRUGV Q f DQG IHPDOHV bf +RZHYHU KLJKLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW E\ PDOHV ZDV QHYHU GLUHFWHG WRZDUG IHPDOHV %RWK KHDG )RUZDUG GLVSOD\V RFFXUUHG b RI WKH WLPH DW WKH ERXQGDULHV RI WHUULWRULHV ZKHQ UHVLGHQW PDOHV ZHUH OHVV WKDQ FP DSDUW Q f 7KH GLVSOD\V FHDVHG b RI WKH WLPH ZKHQ RQH ELUG

PAGE 66

UHWXUQHG WR WKH FHQWHU RI KLV WHUULWRU\ RU HQWHUHG KLV QHVWLQJ FRPSDUWPHQW ,I WZR QHLJKERULQJ PDOHV VKRZHG HLWKHU RI WKH KHDG IRUZDUG GLVSOD\V ODWHU LQ WKH VHDVRQ ZKLOH \RXQJ ZHUH EHLQJ IHG RQO\ b RI WKHVH HQFRXQWHUV HQGHG LQ DJJUHVVLYH LQWHUDFWLRQ Q f 0RVW GLVSOD\V bf HQGHG ZLWK WKH ELUGV UHPDLQLQJ PRWLRQOHVV DQG DW OHDVW RQH ELUG ELOOZLSLQJ Q f *UD\EUHDVWHG 0DUWLQ *0 DVVXPHG ORZ DQG KLJK LQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW GLVSOD\V VLPLODU WR WKRVH RI 30 EXW LQ *0 WKHVH GLVSOD\V ZHUH PRUH HODERUDWH ,Q WKH ORZLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW WKH GLVSOD\LQJ LQGLYLGXDO RULHQWHG RQ D SHUFK VR WKDW WKH D[LV RI LWV ERG\ UDQ SDUDOn OHO ZLWK WKH VXUIDFH RQ ZKLFK LW ZDV SHUFKHG b RI ILOP UHFRUGV b XSULJKW Q f WKH QHFN ZDV H[WHQGHG b b UHWUDFWHGf DQG WKH ZLQJV DQG WDLO ZHUH IOLFNHG XSZDUG UHSHDWHGO\ b b UHPDLQHG VWLOOf PDNLQJ WKH ELUG DSSHDU ODUJHU WKDQ QRUPDO )LJXUH &f 0RUHRYHU WKH IHDWKHUV RI WKH FKHHN DQG FUHVW ZHUH UDLVHG b b VOHHNHGf 7KLV FRPSRQHQW RI WKH GLVSOD\ ZDV QRWLFHDEO\ DEVHQW LQ WKH 30 ORZ LQWHQVLW\ GLVSOD\ SRVWXUH $W KLJK LQWHQVLW\ WKH *0 KHOG WKH ERG\ SDUDOOHO WR WKH VXUIDFH DQG WKUXVW WKH KHDG DQG ELOO IRUZDUG EHORZ WKH OHYHO RI WKH EDFN b RI ILOP UHFRUGV b RWKHU ERG\ YDULDWLRQV Q f KHOG WKH ZLQJV MXVW IUHH RI WKH IODQN IHDWKHUV DQG SDUWO\ VSUHDG WKH SULPDULHV EHORZ WKH OLQH RI WKH WDLO b b DERYH WKH WDLO OLQH )LJXUH 'f

PAGE 67

=XUU FDOOV S f ZHUH JLYHQ E\ WKH ELUGV LQ ORZ LQWHQVLW\ WKUXVW DQG =ZDW FDOOV S f ZHUH JLYHQ GXULQJ KLJK LQWHQVLW\ WKUXVW +LJKLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW LQ WKH *0 DV LQ 30 ZDV QHYHU GLUHFWHG WRZDUG IHPDOHV $ VOLJKWO\ GLIIHUHQW YDULDWLRQ RI WKH KLJKLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW VHHQ LQ WKH 30 ZDV REVHUYHG LQ WKH *0 )LJXUH (f 'XULQJ WKLV GLVSOD\ YDULDQW WKH QHFN ZDV UHWUDFWHG b RI ILOP UHFRUGV b H[WHQGHG Q f WKH OHJV H[WHQGHG b b UHWUDFWHGf WKH ELOO RSHQHG b b FORVHGf WKH ERG\ IHDWKHUV VOHHNHG bf DQG WKH FDUSDOV UDLVHG DV WKH ZULVW ZDV URWDWHG RXWZDUG bf %LUGV WKDW JDYH WKH FDUSDO UDLVHG YDULDWLRQ DOZD\V DWWDFNHG RSSRQHQWV Q f &DULEEHDQ 0DUWLQ $V LQ WKH 30 DQG *0 WKH +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW LQ WKH &0 YDULHG LQ LQWHQVLW\ DQG ZDV GLYLGHG LQWR WZR FDWHJRULHV )LJXUH ) DQG *f ,Q WKH ORZLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW WKH FORVHG ELOO ZDV GLUHFWHG WRZDUG WKH RSSRQHQW b RI WKH ILHOG UHFRUGV b GLUHFWHG DZD\ Q f WKH QHFN ZDV QRW H[WHQGHG b b H[WHQGHGf WKH OHJV ZHUH IOH[HG b b UHWUDFWHGf DQG WKH ERG\ ZDV KHOG LQ D KRUL]RQWDO SRVWXUH ZLWK WKH ZLQJV DQG WDLO FRQWLQXDOO\ IOLFNHG bf ,Q KLJKLQWHQVLW\ WKUXVW WKH ELOO SRLQWHG VWUDLJKW RXW b RI ILHOG UHFRUGV b ELOO WR VLGH Q f DQG WKH QHFN ZDV VWUHWFKHG bf $W WLPHV WKH ZLQJV ZHUH URWDWHG bf DV LQ WKH FDUSDO UDLVHG YDULDWLRQ RI WKH *0 2Q WKH SDUW RI WKH DWWDFNLQJ ELUG WKH ORZ LQWHQVLW\ WKUXVW ZDV

PAGE 68

DFFRPSDQLHG E\ :KHHW FDOOV S f ZKHUHDV WKH KLJK LQWHQVLW\ WKUXVW ZDV DFFRPSDQLHG E\ .ZHHW FDOOV S f *DSLQJ *DSLQJ LQ DOO WKUHH VSHFLHV ZDV LQLWLDWHG E\ DQ\ FRQVSHFLILFnV PRYHPHQW FORVH WR WKH WHUULWRU\ ERXQGDU\ 7KH ERG\ SRVWXUH ZDV YHU\ VLPLODU WR WKDW RI WKH +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW )LJXUH $f H[FHSW WKDW WKH ELOO ZDV KHOG ZLGH RSHQ IRU WZR RU WKUHH VHFRQGV 30 [ VHF Q *0 [ VHF Q &0 [ VHF Q f 7KH ERG\ ZDV LQFOLQHG IRUZDUG IURP WKH SHOYLV b RI WKH ILHOG UHFRUGV b PRUH XSULJKW Q f DQG WKH QHFN H[WHQGHG IRUZDUG bf 7KH ZLQJV ZHUH KHOG E\ WKH VLGH RI WKH ERG\ b Q f EXW ZHUH VRPHWLPHV VSUHDG RXW IRU EDODQFHf LI WKH PDUWLQ PRYHG IRUZDUG bf %RWK VH[HV XVHG WKH *DSH 7KH *DSH PD\ EH VLOHQW RU DFFRPSDQLHG E\ D 5DWWOH FDOO S f LQ WKH 30 DQG D 5DWWOH FDOO S f LQ WKH *0 &0 DSSHDU WR JDSH VLOHQWO\ ,Q DOO WKUHH VSHFLHV PXWXDO *DSLQJ EHWZHHQ PDWHV ZDV FRPPRQ HDUO\ LQ WKH EUHHGLQJ VHDVRQ )LJXUH %f 7KLV EHKDYLRU ZDV REVHUYHG PDLQO\ DW WKH QHVW KROH ZKHQ D PDOH RU IHPDOH ODQGHG QHDU LWV PDWH 2QH ELUG RIWHQ WRRN WKH RIIHQn VLYH ZKLOH LWV PDWH ZDV GHIHQVLYH ,Q RIIHQVLYH *DSLQJ WKH PDUWLQ OHDQHG IRUZDUG ZLWK WKH PRVW ZHLJKW RQ LWV SKDODQJHV ,W VRPHWLPHV VLGOHG IRUZDUG LQ VPDOO VWHSV RU UHPDLQHG PRWLRQOHVV ,Q GHIHQVLYH *DSLQJ WKH ERG\ ZDV KHOG EDFN

PAGE 69

' )LJXUH 'LVSOD\V DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKUHDW EHKDYLRU $ *DSLQJ % *DSLQJ EHWZHHQ PDWHV & 'HIHQVLYH *DSLQJ /XQJH

PAGE 70

WKH QHFN ZLWKGUDZQ WKH ELUG VRPHWLPHV PRYHG EDFNZDUG RU WXUQHG DVLGH ZKLOH UHWXUQLQJ WKH *DSH )LJXUH &f %LOO6QDSSLQJ %LOOVQDSSLQJ LQ DOO WKUHH VSHFLHV FRQVLVWHG RI ORXG FOLFNLQJ SURGXFHG DV WKH PDQGLEOHV ZHUH IRUFLEO\ EURXJKW WRJHWKHU 7KLV GLVSOD\ ZDV JLYHQ IURP WKH KHDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW b Q f RU /XQJH bf 7KH ERG\ ZDV KHOG KRUL]RQWDOO\ b Q f RU VOLJKWO\ GRZQZDUG bf DQG WKH ELOO ZDV VQDSSHG DV DQ DXGLEOH UHLQIRUFHPHQW RI WKUHDW %LOOVQDSSLQJ ZDV XVHG E\ PDUWLQV LQ WKHLU WHUULWRULHV b Q f EXW RFFDVLRQDOO\ RFFXUUHG RXWVLGH WKH WHUULn WRULHV IRU H[DPSOH ZKHQ D PDUWLQ ZDV DSSURDFKHG WRR FORVHO\ ZKLOH UHVWLQJ RQ D SHUFK b RI WKH WLPHf ,W ZDV GLUHFWHG DW VWUDQJHUV PRYLQJ SDVW WKH WHUULWRU\ b Q f RU DW QHLJKERUV PRYLQJ DERXW LQ DGMDFHQW WHUULWRULHV b Q f ,W DOVR ZDV GLUHFWHG DW LQWHUVSHFLILF LQWUXGHUV VXFK DV +RXVH 6SDUURZV 3DVVHU GRPHVWLFXV Q f DQG 6WDUn OLQJV 6WXUQXV YXOJDULV Q f %LOOVQDSSLQJ DOVR ZDV XVHG LQ FRQMXQFWLRQ ZLWK *DSLQJ LQ ERWK LQWHUVSHFLILF LQWHUn DFWLRQV DQG LQWHUDFWLRQV EHWZHHQ PHPEHUV RI D PDWHG SDLU 7KLV GLVSOD\ ZDV SRVVLEO\ D ULWXDOL]HG LQWHQWLRQ WR ELWH /XQJH ,Q DOO WKUHH VSHFLHV ZKHQ D KLJKLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW GLG QRW GLVORGJH DQ RSSRQHQW WKH DWWDFNHU IUHTXHQWO\ SURFHHGHG GLUHFWO\ DW WKH RSSRQHQW 7KH

PAGE 71

KLJKLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW OHG WR WKH /XQJH LQ b RI ILHOG UHFRUGV IRU WKH 30 b UHPDLQ LQSODFH Q f b LQ WKH *0 b UHPDLQ LQSODFH Q f DQG b LQ WKH &0 b UHPDLQ LQSODFH Q f 7KH PRVW FRQVSLFXRXV IHDWXUH RI WKH /XQJH ZDV WKH IRUZDUG PRYHPHQW ,Q WKLV GLVSOD\ WKH ELUG PRYHG WRZDUG WKH VWLPXOXV REMHFW ZLWK D VXGGHQ UXVK DQG WKHQ VWRSSHG ZLWK KHDG DQG QHFN RXWVWUHWFKHG DQG WKH ELOO GLUHFWHG DW WKH RSSRQHQW DQG VOLJKWO\ DJDSH b )LJXUH 'f $W WKH H[WHQVLRQ RI WKH /XQJH WKH ZLQJV ZHUH WZLVWHG XSZDUG RYHU WKH WDLO DQG LQ b Q f RI DOO REVHUYDWLRQV WKH PDQGLEOHV ZHUH FORVHG SURGXFLQJ D VQDS WKDW ZDV DXGLEOH DW GLVWDQFHV JUHDWHU WKDQ P b SURGXFHG QR VRXQGf 7KH /XQJH ZDV DQ DWWDFN WKDW ZDV JHQHUDOO\ VXIILFLHQW WR PDNH DQ RSSRQHQW IOHH 7DEOHV t f ,I WKH RSSRQHQW IDLOHG WR UHWUHDW D ILJKW UHVXOWHG 7KH /XQJH PHUJHG LQWR D ILJKW LQ b RI ILHOG UHFRUGV LQ WKH 30 b WKH RSSRQHQW UHWUHDWHG Q f b LQ WKH *0 b RSSRQHQW UHWUHDWHG Q f DQG b LQ WKH &0 b RSSRQHQW UHWUHDWHG Q f +LJK8S 'LVSOD\V +LJK8S GLVSOD\V ZHUH FRQVLGHUHG WR EH UHWUHDW EHKDYLRU EHFDXVH WKH\ ZHUH GLUHFWHG DZD\ IURP DQ DWWDFNLQJ ELUG DQG ZHUH JLYHQ E\ D UHWUHDWLQJ ELUG 7KH +LJK8S SRVWXUHV ZHUH GLYLGHG LQWR WZR EURDG FDWHJRULHV :LWKGUDZ +LJK8S DQG $OHUW +LJK8S $OHUW DQG :LWKGUDZ +LJK8S GLVSOD\V ZHUH SHUIRUPHG E\ ERWK VH[HV

PAGE 72

7KH :LWKGUDZ +LJK8S GLVSOD\ LQFOXGHG WKH WXUQLQJ DZD\ RU ODWHUDO ERG\ SUHVHQWDWLRQ DYRLGDQFH RU IOHHLQJ RI D PDUWLQ UHODWLYH WR WKH DSSURDFK RI DQRWKHU LQGLYLGXDO 7KH IHDWKHUV RI WKH ERG\ DQG KHDG ZHUH HUHFW WKH KHDG ZDV KHOG DERYH WKH KRUL]RQWDO SODQH WKH ELOO SRLQWHG GRZQZDUG DQG WKH QHFN KHOG EDFNZDUG )LJXUH $f 'XULQJ D WHUULWRULDO HQFRXQWHU WKH ELUG VKRZHG :LWKGUDZ +LJK8S IROORZHG E\ VWD\LQJ 30 b Q *0 b Q &0 WR IHZ UHFRUGVf RU UHWUHDWLQJ 30 b *0 b &0 WR IHZ UHFRUGVf RU UHWUHDWLQJ 30 b *0 b &0 WR IHZ UHFRUGVf EXW LQ DOO WKUHH VSHFLHV WKH ELUGV QHYHU DWWDFNHG 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ $ 30 PD\ VKRZ :LWKGUDZ +LJK8S IURP DQ RSSRQHQW LQ VHYHUDO GLIIHUHQW ZD\V GHSHQGLQJ RQ WKH DJRQLVWLF HQFRXQWHU $ UHWUHDWLQJ PDUWLQ SHUIRUPHG RQH RI VHYHUDO EHKDYLRU SDWWHUQV ZKLFK LQFOXGHG URFNLQJ EDFN RQ WKH WDUVL ZKLOH UHWUDFWLQJ WKH QHFN b RI ILOP UHFRUGV b H[WHQGHG WKH QHFN Q f OHDQLQJ WR RQH VLGH b RI ILOP UHFRUGV b VWUDLJKW DKHDG Q f WXUQLQJ WKH KHDG RU WKH KHDG DQG ERG\ DZD\ IURP WKH DJJUHVVRU b RI ILOP UHFRUGV b WRZDUG WKH RSSRQHQW Q f VLGOLQJ DZD\ DQG IO\LQJ DZD\ IURP WKH DJJUHVVRU 6LGOLQJ VLGHZD\V PRYHPHQW HLWKHU WRZDUG RU DZD\ IURP DQRWKHU LQGLYLGXDO XVXDOO\ WRRN SODFH GXULQJ SHULRGV ZKHQ WKH PDUWLQV ZHUH VLWWLQJ RQ WKH ELUGKRXVH RU RQ D WHOHSKRQH ZLUH ,Q VRPH FDVHV WKH KHDG IHDWKHUV ZHUH UDLVHG IRU D IHZ VHFRQGV GXULQJ VLGOLQJ PRYHPHQWV

PAGE 73

)LJXUH 'LVSOD\V DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK DSSHDVHPHQW EHKDYLRU $ :LWKGUDZ +LJK8S % $OHUW +LJK8S & :KLWH %DGJH 6LJQDO

PAGE 74

, VDZ WKH :LWKGUDZ +LJK8S SRVWXUH JLYHQ LQ WKH IROORZn LQJ FRQWH[WV f E\ D IHPDOH ZKHQ VLWWLQJ RQ WKH KRXVH LQ WKH SUHVHQFH RI D PDOH RWKHU WKDQ KHU RZQ PDWH f E\ D ELUG VKLIWLQJ LWV SRVLWLRQ ZKHQ DQRWKHU ELUG KDG ODQGHG QHDUE\ f EHWZHHQ PHPEHUV RI D SDLU ZKHQ WKH\ ZHUH QHDU HDFK RWKHU DQG HLWKHU ELUG PRYHG WRZDUG WKH RWKHU DQG f ZKHQ RQH ELUG ZDV WKUHDWHQHG E\ DQRWKHU ELUG ZLWK D +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW *UD\EUHDVWHG 0DUWLQ ,Q WKH *0 WKH :LWKGUDZ +LJK8S ZDV QRW DV HODERUDWH DV LQ WKH 30 DQG RIWHQ DSSHDUHG DV DQ DOHUW SRVWXUH VHHQ LQ PDQ\ ELUGV LPPHGLDWHO\ EHIRUH WKH\ HYHU IOHZ LQ DODUP DIWHU D VXSSODQWLQJ DWWDFN RU LQ ELUGV WKDW KDG MXVW DYRLGHG DQ DWWDFN 7KH :LWKGUDZ +LJK8S RI WKH *0 LQYROYHG UDLVLQJ WKH IHDWKHUV b RI ILOP UHFRUGV b UHOD[HG Q OOf KXQFKLQJ WKH ERG\ b b XSULJKW Q OOf DQG DVVXPLQJ D JHQHUDOO\ URXQGHG DSSHDUDQFH 7KLV DOVR ZDV LQ PDQ\ UHVSHFWV WKH RSSRVLWH RI WKH +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW DQG VXJJHVWHG WKDW WKH ELUG ZDV DYRLGLQJ DQ DJJUHVVLYH HQFRXQWHU VHH VHFWLRQ RQ DQDO\VLV RI GLVSOD\Vf &DULEEHDQ 0DUWLQ :LWKGUDZ +LJK8S LQ WKH &0 IUHn TXHQWO\ LQYROYHG D WXUQLQJ DZD\ IURP WKH GRPLQDQW LQGLYLGXDO b RI ILHOG UHFRUGV" b WXUQHG KDOIZD\ Q f 7KH ELUG VWRRG ZLWK WKH ERG\ YHUWLFDO b b QRW XSULJKW Q f QHFN H[WHQGHG DQG ELOO SRLQWHG XSZDUG b b ELOO SRLQWHG GRZQ Q f VR WKDW WKH EUHDVW ZDV H[SRVHG DQG WKH KHDG ZDV KHOG ULJLG 7KH WDLO ZDV QRW VSUHDG bf 6HYHUDO WLPHV

PAGE 75

PDOHV LQ ERXQGDU\ HQFRXQWHUV SHUFKHG RQ SDOPV RU WKDWFKHG URRIV ZLWK WKHLU ELOOV WXUQHG DZD\ IURP WKHLU QHLJKERUV $OHUW +LJK8S SRVWXUHV ZHUH JLYHQ LQ WKH SUHVHQFH RI DODUPLQJ RU QRYHO VWLPXOL VXFK DV WKRVH HOLFLWLQJ ORFRn PRWLRQ ,Q DOO WKUHH VSHFLHV ZKHQ D ELUG VXGGHQO\ GHWHFWHG D SUHGDWRU D ORXG KDUVK QRLVH RU D VXGGHQ FKDQJH LQ PRYHPHQW RI DQRWKHU DQLPDO RU REMHFW WKH DFWLYLW\ LQ ZKLFK LW ZDV LQYROYHG LPPHGLDWHO\ FHDVHG 'XULQJ WKH $OHUW +LJK8S WKH KHDG ZDV UDLVHG RU GLUHFWHG WRZDUG WKH VWLPXOXV DQG WKH QHFN H[WHQGHG RXW )LJXUH %f ,Q WKH $OHUW +LJK8S SRVWXUH WKH ELUG VWRRG HUHFW ZLWK FRPSUHVVHG SOXPDJH DQG ZLWK WKH KHDG DQG ELOO LQ OLQH ZLWK WKH UHVW RI WKH ERG\ 7KH ZLQJV ZHUH KHOG FORVH WR WKH ERG\ DQG WKH OHJV EHFDPH YHU\ VWUDLJKW 7KH ELUGV UHPDLQHG LQ WKLV H[DJJHUDWHG SRVWXUH IRU DERXW IRXU VHFRQGV ORQJHU WKDQ LQ DQ\ RWKHU GLVSOD\ 30 [ VHFRQGV Q *0 [ VHFRQGV Q &0 [ VHFRQGV Q f 2QFH WKH DODUP VWLPXOXV ZDV NQRZ ELUGV RI DOO WKUHH VSHFLHV IOLFNHG WKHLU ZLQJV DQG WDLOV DQG UDLVHG WKHLU FUHVW IHDWKHUV IRU WKH OHQJWK RI WKH GLVWXUEDQFH )UHTXHQWO\ WKH 30 *0 DQG &0 XWWHUHG &KHU S &KHXU S f DQG =ZRRW S f FDOOV UHVSHFWLYHO\ &ODLPLQJ5HFODLPLQJ 0DOHV RI DOO WKUHH VSHFLHV KDG D GLVSOD\ ZKLFK DWWUDFn WHG IHPDOHV DQG DGYHUWLVHG WHUULWRU\ RZQHUVKLS &ODLPLQJ 5HFODLPLQJ LQYROYHG D IOLJKW ZKHUHE\ WKH PDOH DWWUDFWHG KLV

PAGE 76

PDWH RU SRWHQWLDO PDWH WR WKH QHVW VLWH -RKQVWRQ t +DUG\ f 30 PDOHV IOHZ IURP WKH EUHHGLQJ DUHD LQ D ZLGH DUF PHWHU GLDPHWHU Q f ZKLFK FRXOG YDU\ LQ IOLJKW SDWK FLUFOH VL]H GXUDWLRQ DQG IOLJKW SRVWXUH %HVLGHV IROORZLQJ D FLUFXODU FRXUVH PHWHU GLDPHWHU Q f &0V DOVR IOHZ D ILJXUH Q f RU D GRXEOH ODS FLUFOH Q f *0V VKRZHG ERWK FLUFXODU IOLJKWV PHWHU GLDPHWHU Q f DQG VKRUW GLUHFW IOLJKWV Q f LQ ZKLFK D PDOH FDPH FORVH WR VWULNLQJ D VLWWLQJ IHPDOH EHIRUH UHWXUQn LQJ WR WKH EUHHGLQJ VLWH 2Q WKHVH RFFDVLRQV *0 PDOHV IOHZ VR FORVH WR WKHLU PDWHV WKDW WKH IHPDOH ZDV IRUFHG WR HLWKHU UHWUHDW RU IO\ IURP WKH SHUFK *0 IHPDOHV UHSRQGHG WR WKHVH WZR NLQGV RI IOLJKW HQFRXQWHUV E\ HLWKHU IROORZLQJ WKH PDOH WR KLV QHVW KROH Q f PRYLQJ WR DQRWKHU VHFWLRQ RI VWHHO SLSH Q f RU OHDYLQJ WKH DUHD Q f $ &ODLPLQJ5HFODLPLQJ GLVSOD\ HQGHG DEUXSWO\ LQ DOO WKUHH VSHFLHV ZLWK WKH PDOH UHWXUQLQJ WR WKH QHVW VLWH WR UHSHDWHGO\ HQWHU DQG HPHUJH IURP WKH QHVW KROH 30 [ ERXWV RI HPHUJLQJ DQG HQWHULQJ Q *0 [ Q &0 [ Q f 7KLV EHKDYLRU FHDVHG ZKHQ WKH PDOH WKUXVW KLV KHDG RXW RI WKH HQWUDQFH KROH DQG VDQJ VHYHUDO VRQJV LQ VXFFHVVLRQ 30 [ VRQJV SHU ERXW Q *0 [ Q &0 [ Q f $W WKH HQG RI WKH VRQJ LQ 30V DQG *0V EXW QRW LQ &0V WKH ELOO ZDV RSHQHG DQG WKH \HOORZ PRXWK OLQLQJ ZDV IODVKHG LQ VWDUN FRQWUDVW WR WKH UHVW RI WKH ELUGnV KHDG &0V GLG QRW HQG VRQJV ZLWK DQ RSHQ ELOO VHH GLVFXVVLRQ XQGHU YRFDOL]DWLRQVf

PAGE 77

:KLWH %DGJH 6LJQDO %DGJHV DUH FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI DQ DQLPDOnV DSSHDUDQFH WKDW KDYH EHHQ PRGLILHG WR EH LQIRUPDWLYH DGRUQPHQWV 5RKZHU f %DGJHV DUH PRUH SHUVLVWHQW WKDQ GLVSOD\V EHFDXVH GLVSOD\V ODVW RQO\ DV ORQJ DV WKH EHKDYLRU LV VXVWDLQHG %RWK VH[HV RI DOO WKUHH VSHFLHV RI PDUWLQV KDG D SDWFK RI ZKLWH IHDWKHUV RQ WKH DQWHULRU IODQN WKDW QRUPDOO\ ZDV FRQFHDOHG E\ WKH GDUN IHDWKHUV RI WKH PLGGRUVDO UHJLRQ RI WKH VSLQDO WUDFW -RKQVRQ DQG +DUG\ WKLV VWXG\f 7KHVH EROG SOXPDJH PDUNLQJV FDQ EH VHHQ DW WKH OHYHO RI WKH WHUWLDO IHDWKHUV RQ HLWKHU VLGH RI WKH PLGOLQH ZKHQHYHU ELUGV SUHHQHG WKH KHDG RU PDQWOH )LJXUH &f 6L]H DQG VKDSH RI WKH ZKLWH EDGJH YDULHG FRQVLGHUDEO\ DPRQJ LQGLYLGn XDOV RI WKH WKUHH VSHFLHV 7KH ZKLWH SDWFK ZDV KLJKO\ RUJDQL]HG FRQWUDVWHG ZLWK WKH GDUN EDFNJURXQG IHDWKHUV DQG FRXOG EH GLVSOD\HG RU FRYHUHG DW ZLOO WKXV -RKQVWRQ DQG +DUG\ f K\SRWKHVL]HG WKDW LQ WKH 30 WKH ZKLWH EDGJH IXQFWLRQHG DV D VRFLDO VLJQDO DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK SUHHQLQJ $OO P\ REVHUYDWLRQV VXSSRUWHG WKLV K\SRWKHVLV IRU WKH &0 DQG *0 0\ REVHUYDWLRQV IRU WKHVH VSHFLHV VKRZHG WKDW PDUWLQV GLVSOD\HG WKH EDGJH RQO\ DIWHU SUHHQLQJ b Q f RU GXULQJ VXQQLQJ SRVWXUHV b Q f 7KH ZKLWH EDGJH DOVR DSSHDUHG WR VLJQDO VWD\LQJ LQSODFH EHKDYLRU %LUGV VKRZLQJ WKH ZKLWH EDGJH DV D FODVV UHPDLQHG VWDWLRQDU\ PXFK PRUH IUHTXHQWO\ WKDQ ELUGV WKDW GLG QRW H[KLELW WKH EDGJH [ GI S f 7KH EDGJH DOVR IXQFWLRQHG DV DQ DSSHDVHPHQW VLJQDO E\ LQKLELWLQJ

PAGE 78

DJRQLVWLF HQFRXQWHUV DQG SHUPLWWLQJ FORVH FRQWDFW DPRQJ ORDILQJ ELUGV [ GI S f 6HYHUDO DVSHFWV RI PDUWLQ EHKDYLRU VXSSRUWHG WKLV LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ f ZKHQ WKH EDGJH ZDV XQFRYHUHG ELUGV YHUH SUHHQLQJ RU KDG FRPSOHWHG SUHHQLQJ DQG ZHUH ORDILQJ RU VXQQLQJ Q f f SDUWLFLn SDQWV ZHUH SRVLWLRQHG LQ SDUDOOHO RU DW DQJOHV RI OHVV WKDQ GHJUHHV ZKHUH WKHUH ZDV OLWWOH SURORQJHG GLUHFW IURQW RULHQWDWLRQ RU DSSURDFK b b IURQWDO RULHQWDWLRQ Q f DQG f DW QR WLPH ZDV WKH EDGJH UHYHDOHG LQ DQ\ DJRQLVWLF VLWXDWLRQ b Q f 6LPLODU VLJQDOLQJ EDGJHV WKDW IXQFWLRQ WR LQKLELW EHKDYLRUDO LQWHUDFWLRQV KDYH EHHQ GHVFULEHG IRU \RXQJ :DWHU 5DLOV 5DOOXV DTXDWLFXV /RUHQ] f :KLWHQHFNHG 5DYHQV &RUYXV FU\SWROHXFXV -RKQVWRQ f DQG QXPHURXV $FFLSWHUV +DIQHU t +DIQHU f )LJKWLQJ )LJKWLQJ LQ DOO WKUHH VSHFLHV XVXDOO\ ZDV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK GHIHQVH RI D EUHHGLQJ VLWH RU PDWHJXDUGLQJ )LJKWLQJ ZDV PRVW IUHTXHQW DPRQJ PDOHV HDUO\ LQ WKH EUHHGLQJ VHDVRQ $W WKHVH WLPHV H[SORUDWLRQ RI QHVW VLWHV UHVXOWHG LQ PXFK PRYHPHQW LQ WKH EUHHGLQJ DUHDV DQG PDOHV WUHVSDVVHG ZKLOH FRXUWLQJ RU ZDWFKLQJ DQRWKHU PDOHnV PDWH )LJKWLQJ DPRQJ IHPDOHV RFFXUUHG RQO\ GXULQJ SDLU IRUPDWLRQ ZKHQ D IHPDOH FURVVHG D WHUULWRULDO ERXQGDU\ )LJKWLQJ GLG QRW UHVXOW LQ QRWLFHDEOH ERG\ GDPDJH DQG LQ PRVW FDVHV ZDV RI VKRUW

PAGE 79

GXUDWLRQ DOWKRXJK VHH $OOHQ t 1LFH %HQW %URZQ f 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ 7KH FLUFXPVWDQFH IRU DQ HQFRXQWHU WKDW OHG WR D ILJKW ZDV WUHVSDVVLQJ E\ D QRQUHVLGHQW PDOH RQWR DQRWKHU PDOHnV WHUULWRU\ 2I HQFRXQWHUV EHWZHHQ DGMDFHQW WHUULWRULDO PDOHV VWDUWHG ZKHQ D PDOH DSSURDFKHG D QHLJKERUnV PDWH DV VKH ZDV SHUFKLQJ DW WKH ELUGKRXVH RU JDWKHULQJ QHVWLQJ PDWHULDO 7KH UHPDLQLQJ VHYHQ HQFRXQWHUV UHVXOWHG IURP PDOHV H[SORULQJ WKH ELUGKRXVH DQG LQ ZKLFK DWWUDFWLRQ WR D IHPDOH GLG QRW VHHP LQYROYHG :KHQ D PDOH WUHVSDVVHG RQWR DQRWKHU ELUGnV WHUULWRU\ WKH RZQHU DGRSWHG DQ DJRQLVWLF SRVWXUH GLUHFWHG WRZDUG RU DWWDFNHG WKH PRYLQJ PDOH 7KH IROORZLQJ H[DPSOHV RI HQFRXQWHUV EHWZHHQ DGXOW PDOHV :KLWH DQG
PAGE 80

)LJXUH )LJKWLQJ LQWHUDFWLRQV EHWZHHQ PDOH PDUWLQV R? 8O

PAGE 81

ERWK ELUGV ELOOWKUXVWHG WRZDUG HDFK RWKHU DQG WKHQ WXUQHG DZD\ SUHVHQWLQJ WKHLU VLGHV ,I KRZHYHU
PAGE 82

ZKLFK FDVH KH HLWKHU DGYDQFHG DQG LPPHGLDWHO\ HQJDJHG WKH LQWUXGHU LQ ILJKW b Q f RU WKH UHVLGHQW PDOH HQWHUHG KLV URRP DQG SRNHG KLV KHDG RXW DQG FDOOHG RU VDQJ b RI WKHVH REVHUYDWLRQVf 7KH ELUG WKHQ HLWKHU HPHUJHG WR SHUFK LQ IURQW RI WKH QHVW URRP RU UHPDLQHG VWDWLRQDU\ LQ WKH QHVW URRP DSHUWXUH *UD\EUHDVWHG 0DUWLQ ,Q 7ULQLGDG ZKHUH QHDUHVW SDLUV RI *0 RIWHQ QHVWHG XS WR P DSDUW PDOH *0 IOHZ GLUHFWO\ DW WKHLU RSSRQHQWV IRUFLQJ WKH DWWDFNHG ELUG WR PRYH RQ RFFDVLRQV 7KH DWWDFNHG ELUG UHVSRQGHG LQ RQH RI WKUHH ZD\V f LW IOHZ LPPHGLDWHO\ DZD\ ZLWK WKH DWWDFNHU IO\LQJ DIWHU DQG FKDVLQJ LW Q f f LW VKLIWHG LWV SRVLWLRQ D IHZ IHHW DZD\ Q f RU f LW IOHZ XS DQG PHW WKH DWWDFNHU LQ PLGDLU Q f 7ZR IRUPV RI ILJKWLQJ ZHUH REVHUYHG LQ *0 2QH ZDV WKH DHULDO ILJKW LQ ZKLFK WZR PDOHV DVFHQGHG DERXW P IURP WKH SHUFKLQJ SLSHV HDFK KDG D IRRWKROG RQ WKH RWKHU FRPELQHG ZLWK IHDWKHUSXOOLQJ DQG ZLQJEHDWLQJ 7KH ELUGV ZRXOG WKHQ GHVFHQG QRW VHSDUDWLQJ XQWLO VWULNLQJ WKH JURXQG RU HQWHUn LQJ WKH ZDWHU DW ZKLFK SRLQW DOO ILJKWLQJ FHDVHG Q f 7KH RWKHU W\SH RI ILJKW ZDV D /XQJH RQ WKH SLSH SHUFKHV LQ ZKLFK WKH WZR ELUGV SHFNHG HDFK RWKHUnV KHDGV DQG ERG\ DUHDV XQWLO RQH LQGLYLGXDO EURNH RII LQ UHWUHDW Q f $ ZLQQHU DGRSWHG DQ HUHFW SRVWXUH FDOOLQJ DV LW VDW RQ WKH VSRW YDFDWHG D IHZ VHFRQGV EHIRUH 7KH ELUG WKHQ EHJDQ SUHHQLQJ WR UHDUUDQJH IHDWKHUV WKDW PD\ KDYH EHFRPH GLVSODFHG GXULQJ WKH DWWDFN

PAGE 83

&DULEEHDQ 0DUWLQV )LJKWV RI WKH &0 GLG QRW GLIIHU DSSUHFLDEO\ IURP WKRVH GHVFULEHG IRU 30 DQG *0 H[FHSW WKDW ILJKWLQJ RFFXUUHG DW JUHDWHU KHLJKWV DURXQG QHVW VLWV LQ SDOP IURQEV ,Q 7REDJR UHFRUGHG GHWDLOV RI LQWUDVSHFLILF ILJKWV DQG VDZ D IHZ RWKHU VKRUW DJRQLVWLF HSLVRGHV /HVV ILJKWLQJ LQ &0 WKDQ LQ *0 DQG 30 PD\ UHIOHFW WKH JUHDWHU &0 PLQLPXP LQWHUQHVW GLVWDQFH P DV RSSRVHG WR P LQ WKH *0 DQG FP LQ WKH 30f 3K\VLFDO RSSRUWXQLWLHV WR LQWHUDFW GHFUHDVHG DV WKH GLVWDQFH EHWZHHQ ELUGV LQFUHDVHG $QDO\VLV RI 9LVXDO &RPPXQLFDWLRQ 6HTXHQFHV LQ 'HIHQVH RI 7HUULWRU\ 7KH EHKDYLRU RI LQGLYLGXDO PDUWLQV FRQVLVWHG RI ERWK LQGLYLGXDO DFWV DQG VHTXHQFHV RI DFWV $ EHKDYLRUDO DFW ZDV D GLVSOD\ RQO\ LI LW FRQYH\HG D VLJQDO WR DQRWKHU DQLPDO DQG ZDV VSHFLILFDOO\ DGDSWHG IRU WKDW SXUSRVH VHH +LQGH .UHEV t 'DYLHV 7LQEHUJHQ f 2QO\ 30 DQG *0 SURYLGHG VXIILFLHQW GDWD WR SHUPLW PH WR DQDO\]H WKHLU YLVXDO GLVSOD\V ,Q ERWK VSHFLHV DQ\ RI WKH VHYHQ GLVSOD\V OLVWHG LQ 7DEOH FRXOG RFFXU DV DQ LQLWLDO UHVSRQVH LQ DQ LQWHUDFWLRQ ZLWK DQRWKHU PDUWLQ 0RVW LQWHUDFWLRQV ZHUH EULHI [ VHFRQGV Q ILHOG UHFRUGVf DQG FRQVLVWHG RI RQO\ RQH RU WZR GLVSOD\V 7KH PRVW IUHTXHQW LQLWLDO UHVSRQVHV ZHUH ORZ DQG KLJKLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW 30 PDOHV

PAGE 84

7DEOH )UHTXHQFLHV RI ,QLWLDO 'LVSOD\V 'LVSOD\ 3URSRUWLRQ RI WRWDO HQFRXQWHUVf 30 *0 30 *0 0DOH 0DOH )HPDOH )HPDOH /RZ LQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG +LJK LQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG *DSLQJ %LOO6KDSLQJ /XQJH $OHUW +LJK8S :LWKGUDZ +LJK8S 7RWDO SUREDELOLW\ 7RWDO HQFRXQWHUV

PAGE 85

b Q ILHOG UHFRUGV IHPDOHV b Q *0 PDOHV b Q ILHOG UHFRUGV IHPDOHV b Q f DQG $OHUW DQG :LWKGUDZ +LJK8S 30 PDOHV b Q ILHOG UHFRUGV IHPDOHV b Q *0 PDOHV b Q ILHOG UHFRUGV IHPDOHV b Q f 7KH SUREDELOLW\ RI WKH RFFXUUHQFH RI WKHVH UHVSRQVHV ZDV LQFUHDVHG ZKHQ WKH FRQGLWLRQV RI DQ HQFRXQWHU ZHUH VSHFLILHG 7DEOH f /RZLQWHQVLW\ KHDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW ZDV WKH PRVW IUHTXHQW UHVSRQVH WR D PDUWLQ SDXVLQJ QHDU WKH WHUULWRU\ 30 b Q ILHOG UHFRUGV *0 b Q f RU WR D PDUWLQ IO\LQJ E\ WKH EUHHGLQJ VLWH 30 b Q *0 b Q f $OHUW +LJK8S ZDV WKH PRVW IUHTXHQW UHVSRQVH WR D GLVWDQW GLVWXUEDQFH 30 b Q *0 b Q f :LWKGUDZ +LJK8S RFFXUUHG PRVW FRPPRQO\ LQ HQFRXQWHUV ZLWK QHLJKERUV ZKR UHWDOLDWHG LQ UHVSRQVH WR DQ LQLWLDO FKDOOHQJH 30 b Q *0 b Q f +LJKLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW *DSLQJ DQG %LOOVQDSSLQJ RFFXUUHG OHVV IUHTXHQWO\ DQG ZHUH UHVSRQVHV WR LQWUXGHUV HQWHULQJ RU SDXVLQJ QHDU WKH WHUULWRU\ 6HH 7DEOH f *DSLQJ ZDV IROORZHG E\ D /XQJH ZKHQ WKH LQWUXGHU DSSURDFKHG WR ZLWKLQ ELOOVWULNLQJ UDQJH 7KH /XQJH DOVR ZDV XVHG E\ VRPH PDUWLQV DJDLQVW QHLJKERUV SDXVLQJ QHDU WKH WHUULWRULDO ERXQGDU\ 7KH WLPH HODSVHG VLQFH WKH ODVW HQFRXQWHU DQG PRYHPHQW RI WKH VWLPXOXV LQIOXHQFHG WKH LQLWLDO UHVSRQVH RI PDUWLQV )LJXUH $(f :KHQ DQ LQWUXGHU DSSURDFKHG VORZO\ D WHUULWRULDO PDUWLQ UHVSRQGHG ZLWK ORZLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW b D ILHOG UHFRUGVf RU *DSLQJ b Q

PAGE 86

7DEOH ,QFLGHQFH RI 6LQJOH 'LVSOD\V IURP 'LIIHUHQW 7\SHV RI (QFRXQWHUV 3UREDELOLWLHV IURP 6HSDUDWH (QFRXQWHUV &ORVH 1HLJKERU 'LVWDQW 1HLJKERU 1HLJKERUV &KDOOHQJH 1HLJKERUV 3DXVH 'LVSOD\ 30 *0 30 *0 30 *0 30 *0 /RZ LQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG +LJK LQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG *DSLQJ %LOOVQDSSLQJ /XQJH $OHUW +LJK8S :LWKGUDZ +LJK8S 7RWDO SUREDELOLW\ 7RWDO HQFRXQWHUV

PAGE 87

$f 7HUULWRULDO PDUWLQ ,QWUXGHU ORZ LQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW Q f I RU *DSLQJ Q f ? DSSURDFK VWD\ VORZO\ %f 7HUUL WRULD PDUWLQ ,QWUXGHU KLJK LQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW Q f RU DSSURDFK VXGGHQO\ %L OOVQDSSLQJ Q Of ? UHWUHDW &f 7HUULWRULDO PDUWLQ ,QWUXGHU DSSURDFK VORZO\ ORZ LQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW ? I FRQWLQXH DSSURDFK KLJK LQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW ? VWD\ Q f 'f 7HUULWRULDO KLJK LQWHQVLW\ PDUWLQ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW /XQJH VWD\ ,QWUXGHU DSSURDFK ? ? UHWUHDW UHWUHDW Q f VORZO\ VL LJKWO\ (f 7HUULWRULDO PDUWLQ ,QWUXGHU /XQJH DSSURDFK VORZO\ ? UHWUHDW Q f )LJXUH 0RGHOV RI LQWHUDFWLRQV EHWZHHQ PDOH PDUWLQV Q f UR

PAGE 88

ILHOG UHFRUGV )LJXUH $f ,I WKH LQWUXGHU DSSURDFKHG VXGn GHQO\ D UHVLGHQW PDOH UHVSRQGHG ZLWK KLJKLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW b Q ILHOG UHFRUGVf DQG %LOOVQDSSLQJ b Q ILHOG UHFRUGV )LJXUH %f /RZLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW ZDV IROORZHG E\ KLJKLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW ZKHQ WKH LQWUXGLQJ PDUWLQ PRYHG FORVHU )LJXUH &f +LJKLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW ZDV IROORZHG E\ /XQJH ZKHQ WKH ULYDO PDUWLQ PRYHG DZD\ RQO\ VOLJKWO\ RU VORZO\ )LJXUH 'f 6RPHWLPHV WKH VDPH W\SH RI DSSURDFK HOLFLWHG GLIIHUHQW UHDFWLRQV *HQHUDOO\ WKLV FRXOG EH DWWULEXWHG WR WKH SUHYLRXV VWLPXODWLRQ RI WKH WHUULWRULDO PDUWLQ $ PDOH ZKR KDG EHHQ XQGLVWXUEHG IRU VRPH WLPH PLJKW VKRZ RQO\ ORZ LQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW )LJXUH $f ZKHUHDV D PDOH ZKR KDG MXVW UHSHOOHG D PDUWLQ DW D WHUULWRULDO ERXQGDU\ UHDFWHG PRUH DJJUHVVLYHO\ WR WKH DSSURDFK RI DQ LQWUXGHU )LJXUH (f *DSLQJ %LOOVQDSSLQJ DQG :LWKGUDZ +LJK8S WHQGHG WR RFFXU DW WKH HQG RI VHTXHQFHV UDWKHU WKDQ DW WKH EHJLQQLQJ 7DEOH f 6SHFLILFDOO\ WKHVH GLVSOD\V RFFXUUHG DW WKH HQG RI VHTXHQFHV LQ ZKLFK /XQJH KDG QRW EHHQ HOLFLWHG WKXV WKH\ GLG QRW SUHFHGH DWWDFN +LJKLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW DOVR RFFXUUHG DW WKH HQG RI VHTXHQFHV EXW ZDV IROORZHG E\ DWWDFN ZKHQ D QHLJKERU DSSURDFKHG RU HQWHUHG WKH WHUULWRU\ 6HH 7DEOHV t f /RZLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW DQG $OHUW +LJK8S RFFXUUHG DW WKH EHJLQQLQJ RI VHTXHQFHV UDWKHU WKDQ DW WKH HQG %RWK ZHUH VHOGRP XVHG

PAGE 89

7DEOH 3URSRUWLRQ RI 'LVSOD\V 8VHG DV ,QLWLDO 9HUVXV 7HUPLQDO 5HVSRQVHV LQ 7ZR'LVSOD\ 6HTXHQFHV 3RVLWLRQ LQ 6HTXHQFH 30 *0 'LVSOD\ %HJLQ b (QG b 1 %HJLQ b (QG b 1 /RZ LQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG +LJK LQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG *DSLQJ %LOOVQDSSLQJ /XQJH $OHUW +LJK8S :LWKGUDZ +LJK8S

PAGE 90

7DEOH 3XUSOH 0DUWLQV DQG 5HFHLYHU 'LVSOD\ RI 6LJQDOHU DQG WKH 6XEVHTXHQW %HKDYLRU RI WKH 6LJQDOHU 6XEVHTXHQW %HKDYLRU RI 6LJQDOHUr 6XEVHTXHQW %HKDYLRU RI 5HFHLYHUr 'LVSOD\ 1 $WWDFN 5HWUHDW 6WD\ 1 $WWDFN 5HWUHDW 6WD\ /RZLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG +LJKLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG *DSLQJ %LOOVQDSSLQJ /XQJH $OHUW +LJK8S :LWKGUDZ r3HUFHQW RI WRWDO RFFXUUHQFHV

PAGE 91

7DEOH *UD\%UHDVWHG 0DUWLQV 'LVSOD\ RI 6LJQDOHU DQG WKH 6XEVHTXHQW %HKDYLRU RI WKH 6LJQDOHU DQG 5HFHLYHU 6XEVHTXHQW %HKDYLRU RI 6LJQDOHUr 6XEVHTXHQW %HKDYLRU RI 5HFHLYHUr 'LVSOD\ 1 $WWDFN 5HWUHDW 6WD\ 1 $WWDFN 5HWUHDW 6WD\ /RZLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG +LJKLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG *DSLQJ %LOOVQDSSLQJ /XQJH $OHUW +LJK8S :LWKGUDZ r3HUFHQW RI WRWDO RFFXUUHQFHV

PAGE 92

ZLWKLQ WKH VWDWLRQDU\ DWWDFNLQJ UDQJH DQG WKXV ZHUH VHOGRP IROORZHG E\ DWWDFN 5HODWLRQ RI 'LVSOD\V WR 6XEVHTXHQW %HKDYLRU 7KLV DQDO\VLV ZDV GHVLJQHG WR GHWHUPLQH LI RQH FRXOG SUHGLFW ZKDW D ELUG ZRXOG GR GHSHQGLQJ XSRQ LWV GLVSOD\ 8VLQJ DQ DSSURDFK GHYHORSHG E\ 6WRNHV D Ef DQG %DOSK f UHFRUGHG WKH IUHTXHQF\ RI WKH VHYHQ GLVSOD\V DQG WKH VXEVHTXHQW UHDFWLRQ RI WKH ELUG 7DEOHV t f ,QWHUDFWLRQV ZHUH FRQVLGHUHG WR KDYH WKUHH SKDVHV DWWDFN ZKHQ RQH ELUG GURYH WKH RWKHU DZD\ VWD\LQJ ZKHQ WKH WZR ELUGV GLG QRW PRYH DZD\ DQG UHWUHDW ZKHQ D ELUG PRYHG DZD\ IURP DQRWKHU LQ UHVSRQVH WR DQ DWWDFN 7DEOHV DQG JLYH WKH SUREDELOLWLHV RI SDUWLFXODU GLVSOD\V OHDGLQJ WR DWWDFN UHWUHDW RU VWD\ ,Q WKLV VWXG\ ORZLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW LQGLFDWHG WKDW D 30 ZRXOG VXEVHTXHQWO\ DWWDFN b RI WKH WLPH Q ILHOG UHFRUGVf DQG D *0 b RI WKH WLPH Q ILHOG UHFRUGVf EXW WKHUH ZDV DQ HYHQ KLJKHU SUREDELOLW\ RI VWD\LQJ 30 b Q ILHOG UHFRUGV *0 b Q ILHOG UHFRUGVf ,Q WKH 30 KLJKLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW VXJJHVWHG D WUDQVLn WLRQ EHWZHHQ ORZLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW DQG /XQJH VLQFH LW ZDV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK SUREDELOLWLHV RI DWWDFN b Q ILHOG UHFRUGVf DQG RI VWD\LQJ b Q ILHOG UHFRUGVf WKDW ZHUH LQWHUPHGLDWHO\ EHWZHHQ WKRVH IRU ORZ LQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW DQG /XQJH :KHQ KLJK LQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW RFFXUUHG LQ WKH *0 KRZHYHU

PAGE 93

WKH SUHGRPLQDQW WHQGHQF\ ZDV WR VWD\ b Q ILHOG UHFRUGVf $ *0 DWWDFNHG IURP WKH *DSLQJ SRVLWLRQ b RI WKH WLPH Q ILHOG UHFRUGVf DQG IURP WKH %LOOVQDSSLQJ SRVLWLRQ b RI WKH WLPH Q ILHOG UHFRUGVf /XQJH KDG WKH KLJKHVW SUREDELOLW\ RI EHLQJ IROORZHG E\ DWWDFN LQ ERWK VSHFLHV 30 b Q ILHOG UHFRUGV *0 b Q ILHOG UHFRUGVf $OHUW +LJK8S ZDV PRVW RIWHQ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK VWD\LQJ 30 b Q ILHOG UHFRUGV *0 b Q ILHOG UHFRUGVf EXW DOVR KDG D ORZ SUREDELOLW\ RI DWWDFN 30 b Q ILHOG UHFRUGV *0 b Q ILHOG UHFRUGVf $ PDUWLQ VKRZLQJ :LWKGUDZ +LJK8S QHYHU DWWDFNHG Q ILHOG UHFRUGVf DQG ZDV OLNHO\ WR UHWUHDW b Q ILHOG UHFRUGVf LI DSSURDFKHG PRUH FORVHO\ 2Q WKH IHZ RFFDVLRQV ZKHQ UHFLSLHQWV UHWDOLDWHG 30 REVHUYDWLRQV Q ILHOG UHFRUGV *0 REVHUYDWLRQV Q ILHOG UHFRUGVf WKH VLJQDOHU WKHQ UHVSRQGHG ZLWK FRQWLQXHG DWWDFN 30 b Q ILHOG UHFRUGV *0 b Q ILHOG UHFRUGVf RU UHWUHDW 30 b Q ILHOG UHFRUGV *0 b Q ILHOG UHFRUGVf 0RVW DJRQLVWLF HQFRXQWHUV ZHUH RI WKH DWWDFNUHWUHDW NLQG DQG RQFH HQGHG ZHUH UDUHO\ UHSHDWHG 30 b b ZHUH LQWHUDFWLRQV WKDW FRQWLQXHG Q ILHOG UHFRUGV *0 b b ZHUH LQWHUn DFWLRQV WKDW FRQWLQXHG Q ILHOG UHFRUGVf (IIHFWLYHQHVV RI 'LVSOD\V 7R GHWHUPLQH WKH HIIHFWLYHQHVV RI WKH GLVSOD\V PHDVXUHG WKH YDOHQFH RI D JLYHQ GLVSOD\ WR WKH EHKDYLRU RI D

PAGE 94

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f HOLFLWHG VWD\ RU UHWUHDW RI LQWUXGHUV 7DEOH DQG f :KHQ D 30 RU *0 JDYH ORZ LQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW WKH UHFLSLHQW VXEVHTXHQWO\ VWD\HG b RI WKH WLPH 30 Q ILHOG UHFRUGV *0 Q ILHOG UHFRUGVf DQG UDUHO\ DWWDFNHG 30 b Q ILHOG UHFRUGV *0 b Q ILHOG UHFRUGVf )RU *DSLQJ 30 Q ILHOG UHFRUGV *0 Q ILHOG UHFRUGVf DQG %LOOVQDSSLQJ 30 Q ILHOG UHFRUGV *0 Q ILHOG UHFRUGVf LQ ERWK VSHFLHV WKH SUREDELOLW\ RI VXEVHTXHQW VWD\LQJ RI WKH UHFLSLHQW ZDV b RU EHWWHU DQG WKH OLNHOLn KRRG RI EHLQJ DWWDFNHG E\ WKH UHFLSLHQW ZDV b OHVV 7KH WZR UHVSRQVHV PRVW HIIHFWLYH LQ GULYLQJ LQWUXGHUV DZD\ ZHUH WKH KLJKLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW DQG WKH /XQJH 7DEOH DQG f /XQJH KDG WKH JUHDWHVW SUREDELOLW\ RI HOLFLWLQJ UHWUHDW LQ WKH UHFLSLHQW B! b LQ ERWK VSHFLHV

PAGE 95

30 Q ILHOG UHFRUGV *0 Q ILHOG UHFRUGVf DQG WKH ORZHVW SUREDELOLW\ RI EHLQJ IROORZHG E\ UHWUHDW IURP WKH VLJQDOHU B bf $OHUW 30 Q ILHOG UHFRUGV *0 Q ILHOG UHFRUGVf DQG :LWKGUDZ +LJK8S 30 Q ILHOG UHFRUGV *0 Q ILHOG UHFRUGVf KDG WKH ORZHVW SUREDELOLW\ RI HOLFLWLQJ UHWUHDW B bf DQG WKH JUHDWHVW SUREDELOLW\ RI HOLFLWLQJ VWD\ B! bf 7KH\ DOVR ZHUH WKH EHVW LQGLFDWRUV RI VXEn VHTXHQW UHWUHDW E\ WKH VLJQDOHU 7DEOHV DQG f 6LQFH :LWKGUDZ +LJK8S ZDV HIIHFWLYH LQ HOLFLWLQJ VWD\LQJ IURP LQWUXGHUV LW ZDV VXUSULVLQJ WKDW PRVW DWWDFNV IURP ULYDO PDUWLQV RFFXUUHG DIWHU WKLV GLVSOD\ 7KH KLJKHU SUREDELOLW\ RI DWWDFN PD\ EH GXH LQ SDUW WR FRQGLWLRQV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK KLJK GHQVLW\ LQ WKH EUHHGLQJ DUHD DQG WKH UHVXOWDQW IRUFHG SUR[LPLW\ &RPSHWHQW 6WUXFWXUH RI 'LVSOD\V ,Q RUGHU WR GHWHUPLQH TXDQWLWDWLYHO\ LI FHUWDLQ EHKDYn LRUDO FRPSRQHQWV ZHUH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK RQH DQRWKHU DVVHVVHG WKH UHVSRQVHV RI RWKHU PDUWLQV WR WKRVH FRPSRQHQWV UHFRUGHG HQFRXQWHUV IRU WKH 30 DQG HQFRXQWHUV IRU WKH *0 WKDW ZHUH XVHG LQ WDEXODWLQJ WKH UHVXOWV RI DJRQLVWLF LQWHUDFWLRQV (DFK GLVSOD\ FRQVLVWHG RI D FRPELQDWLRQ RI GLIIHUHQW FRPSRQHQWV RI ZKLFK WKH IROORZLQJ ZHUH UHFRUGHG f %RG\ SRVLWLRQ RQO\ WZR FDWHJRULHV ZHUH GLVWLQJXLVKHGf§WKH PDUWLQ VWRRG HLWKHU XSULJKW RU

PAGE 96

KRUL]RQWDO $Q XSULJKW ERG\ SRVLWLRQ ZDV FKDUDFWHULVn WLF RI UHGXFHG DJJUHVVLYHQHVV DQG LQFUHDVHG UHWUHDWLQJ EHKDYLRU $ KRUL]RQWDO SRVLWLRQ LQGLFDWHG D WHQGHQF\ WR UHWUHDW E\ RSSRQHQWV f %RG\ IHDWKHUV WKH ERG\ IHDWKHUV RI WKH EUHDVW EDFN DQG IODQNV ZHUH HUHFWHG VOHHNHG RU UHOD[HG 0DMRU IHDWKHU HUHFWLRQ RFFXUUHG RQO\ ZKHQ WKH PDUWLQV ZHUH UHWUHDWLQJ RU VKRZLQJ PRYHPHQWV RI LQWHQWLRQ WR UHWUHDW 6OHHNHG IHDWKHUV ZHUH PRVW RIWHQ VHHQ ZKHQ D PDOH DSSURDFKHG RU WKUHDWHQHG D SRWHQWLDO LQWUXGHU f &UHVW IHDWKHUV WKH IHDWKHUV RI WKH KHDG ZHUH UDLVHG RU ORZHUHG WR YDU\LQJ GHJUHHV 7KHUH DSSHDUHG WR EH FRQVLGHUDEOH YDULDWLRQ LQ WKH H[WHQW RI FUHVW HUHFWLRQ GXULQJ DOO RI WKH DERYH GLVSOD\V f %LOO SRVLWLRQ WKH ELOO ZDV HLWKHU RSHQHG RU FORVHG ,Q VRPH WKUHDW GLVSOD\V WKH ELOO ZDV RSHQHG ZLGH DV LQ WKH *DSH DQG /XQJH GLVSOD\V ,Q UHWUHDW RU UHWUHDW LQWHQWLRQ PRYHPHQWV WKH ELOO ZDV XVXDOO\ FORVHG f :LQJ SRVLWLRQ WKH ZLQJV ZHUH KHOG DJDLQVW WKH ERG\ ZKHQ PDUWLQV ZHUH ORDILQJ :KHQ PDUWLQV ZHUH GLVWXUEHG WKH ZLQJV ZHUH UHSHDWHGO\ IOLFNHG DZD\ IURP WKH ERG\ 30 [ FP Q ILOP UHFRUGV *0 [ FP Q ILHOG UHFRUGVf 7KH ZLQJV ZHUH H[WHQGHG 30 [ FP Q ILOP UHFRUGV *0 [ FP

PAGE 97

Q ILOP UHFRUGVf ZKHQ PDUWLQV ZHUH PRYLQJ IRUZDUG LQ D /XQJH DQG ZKHQ PRYLQJ DZD\ LQ :LWKGUDZ +LJK8S f 7DLO SRVLWLRQ WKH WDLO ZDV KHOG VWDWLRQDU\ DQG NHSW LQ OLQH ZLWK WKH ERG\ ZKHQ PDUWLQV ZHUH ORDILQJ 7KH WDLO ZDV IOLFNHG XS DQG GRZQ LQ D YHUWLn FDO SODQH ZKHQ PDUWLQV ZHUH VWDUWOHG RU GLVWXUEHG f 2ULHQWDWLRQ D PDUWLQ IDFHG WKH ULYDO RU WXUQHG DW DQ\ DQJOH DZD\ IURP LW )DFLQJ WKH ULYDO LQFUHDVHG WKH SUREDELOLW\ RI DWWDFN %RG\ SRVLWLRQV WXUQHG DW VRPH DQJOH DZD\ IURP WKH ULYDO ZHUH DVVRFLn DWHG ZLWK DQ LQFUHDVHG SUREDELOLW\ RI UHWUHDW 2I WKH WKUHDW GLVSOD\V UHFRJQL]HG LQ WKLV VWXG\ HDFK KDG D GLIIHUHQW FRPSRQHQW VWUXFWXUH 7KH ILUVW VWHS LQ WKLV DQDO\VLV ZDV WR UHFRUG WKH IUHTXHQF\ RI RFFXUUHQFH RI WKH VHYHQ GLIIHUHQW EHKDYLRUDO FRPSRQHQWV DQG WR GHWHUPLQH WKH GHJUHH RI FRUUHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKHVH FRPSRQHQWV 7DEOHV DQG f )RU WKH VHYHQ EHKDYLRUDO FRPSRQHQWV WKHUH ZHUH SRVn VLEOH WZRIDFWRU FRPELQDWLRQV IRXQG D FRUUHODWLRQ S f EHWZHHQ FRPSRQHQWV LQ RXW RI WZRIDFWRU FRPELQDWLRQV IRU WKH 30 DQG RXW RI WZRIDFWRU FRPELQDn WLRQV IRU WKH *0 7KXV ZKHQ D PDUWLQ UDLVHG LWV ERG\ IHDWKHUV LWV FUHVW ZDV JHQHUDOO\ UDLVHG DW WKH VDPH WLPH DQG D PDUWLQ ZLWK WKH ELOO RSHQ DOPRVW DOZD\V IDFHG LWV ULYDO (YHQ PRUH VWULNLQJ ZDV WKH REVHUYDWLRQ WKDW VRPH FRPSRQHQWV UDUHO\ RFFXUUHG ZLWK RWKHUV ,Q 30V DQG *0V D KRUL]RQWDO ERG\ SRVLWLRQ UDUHO\ RFFXUUHG ZLWK ERG\ IHDWKHUV HUHFW FUHVW HUHFW RU GXULQJ IDFLQJ DZD\ REVHUYDWLRQV

PAGE 98

7DEOH 6LPXOWDQHRXV 2FFXUUHQFH RI %HKDYLRUDO &RPSRQHQWV *LYHQ E\ 7HUULWRULDO 0DOH 3XUSOH 0DUWLQV WR ,QWUXGHUV [f OHYHOV RI VLJQLILFDQFH 16 S! [[ S $GDSWHG IURP 6WRNHV f %RG\ %RG\ %RG\ +RUL]RQWDO %RG\ 8SULJKW )HDWKHUV )HDWKHUV &UHVW 6OHHNHG (UHFW 6OHHNHG &UHVW (UHFW %LOO %LOO 2SHQ &ORVHG :LQJV )OLFNHG :LQJV 'RZQV 7DLO )OLFNHG 7DLO 'RZQ )DFLQJ )DFLQJ 5LYDO $ZD\ $WWDFN 5HDFWLRQ 5HWUHDW 6WD\ %RG\ KRUL]RQWDO ;; ;; 16 16 ;; ;; %RG\ 8SULJKW f§ %RGY IHDWKHU R2 6OHHNHG ;; ;; ;; ;; ;; ;; %RG\ WHDFKHUV (UHFW &UHVW 6OHHNHG f§ 0; ;; ;; ;; ;; &UHVW (UHFW f§ 2 %LOO 2SHQ ;; ;; f ;; [ %LOO &ORVHG E :LQJV )OLFNHG f§ ‘ R2 ;; ;; ;; :LQJV 'RZQ 7DLO )OLFNHG f§ ;; ;; 7DLO 'RXQ f§ )DFLQJ 5LYDO ;; )DFLQJ $ZD\ 5HDFWLRQ $WWDFN 5HWUHDW

PAGE 99

7DEOH 6LPXOWDQHRXV 2FFXUUHQFH RI %HKDYLRUDO &RPSRQHQWV *LYHQ E\ 7HUULWRULDO 0DOH *UD\%UHDVWHG 0DUWLQV WR ,QWUXGHUV [ [f OHYHOV RI VLJQLILFDQFH 16 S! [[ S $GDSWHG IURP 6WRNHV f %RG\ %RG\ %RG\ %RG\ )HDWKHUV )HDWKHUV &UHVW &UHVW %LOO %LOO :LQJV :LQJV 7DLO 7DLO )DFLQJ )DFLQJ 5HDF FLRQ +RUL]RQWDO 8SULJKW 6OHNHG (UHFW 6OHHNHG (UHFW 2SHQ &ORVHG )OLFNHG 'RZQV )OLFNHG 'RZQ 5LYDO $ZD\ $WWDFN 5HWUHDW 6WD\ %RG\ +RUL]RQWDO L ;; ;; 16 16 ;; ;; %RG\ 8SULJKW f§ %RGY OHDWKHU n R 6OHHNHG ;; ;; ;; ;; [ ;; %RG\ IHDWKHUV LR (UHFW &UHVW 6OHHNHG f§ ;; ;; ;; ;; ;; &UHVW +UHFW f§ %LOO 2SHQ & ;; ;; ;; ;; %LOO &ORVHG f§ :LQJV )OLFNHG f§ f 0 ;; ;; [! :LQJV 'RZQ f§ 7DLO )OLFNHG f§ 7DLO 'RZQ f§ )DFLQJ 5LYDO f§ R ;; )DFLQJ $ZD\ f§ r 5HDFW LRQ $WWDFN 5HWUHDW 6WD\ f§ f§ A

PAGE 100

Q f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nV EHKDYLRUDO SRVWXUH LQGLFDWHG GLIIHUHQW SUREDELOLWLHV WKDW LW ZRXOG VWD\ DWWDFN RU UHWUHDW 2QO\ ILYH FRPSRQHQWV SHUPLWWHG SUHn GLFWLRQ RI VXEVHTXHQW DFWLRQ E\ D PDOH 30 7DEOH f %LOO RSHQ DV LQ /XQJHf KDG D b Q ILHOG UHFRUGVf FKDQFH RI EHLQJ IROORZHG E\ DWWDFN 7DLO IOLFN ZKLFK ZDV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK PRYLQJ IRUZDUG KDG D b FKDQFH RI EHLQJ IROORZHG E\ DWWDFN Q ILHOG UHFRUGVf %RG\ IHDWKHUV HUHFW FUHVW HUHFW DQG IDFLQJ DZD\ LQGLFDWHG KLJK SUREDELOLWLHV RI UHWUHDWLQJ ,Q WKH *0 7DEOH f RQO\ ELOO RSHQ SHUPLWWHG SUHGLFWLRQ RI WKH RXWFRPH RI DQ HQFRXQWHU ZLWK DQ\ GHJUHH RI DFFXUDF\ )RU DOO RWKHU FRPSRQHQWV RI EHKDYLRU WKH SUREDELOLW\ RI VXEVHTXHQW DWWDFN UHWUHDW RU VWD\ ZDV XVXDOO\ b RU OHVV LQ ERWK VSHFLHV 7DEOHV DQG f $QRWKHU DSSURDFK ZDV WR FRPSDUH WKH SUREDELOLW\ RI DFWLRQ ZKHQ D JLYHQ FRPSRQHQW ZDV SUHVHQW RU DEVHQW 7KXV ZKHQ D 30 EHKDYLRU FKDQJHG IURP ERG\ IHDWKHUV VOHHNHG WR

PAGE 101

7DEOH 3XUSOH 0DUWLQV %HKDYLRUDO &RPSRQHQWV RI 'LVSOD\V 9HUVXV 6XEVHTXHQW %HKDYLRU RI 6LJQDOHU DQG RI 5HFHLYHU 6XEVHTXHQW %HKDYLRU 6XEVHTXHQW %HKDYLRU RI 6LJQDOHU RI 5HFHLYHU %HKDYLRUDO &RPSRQHQW $WWDFN 5HWUHDW 6WD\ 1 3 $WWDFN 5HWUHDW 6WD\ 1 3 %RG\ +RUL]RQWDO r r r %RG\ 8SULJKW %RG\ )HDWKHUV 6OHHNHG r r r %RG\ )HDWKHUV (UHFW &UHVW 6OHHNHG r r N N &UHVW (UHFW %LOO 2SHQ r r N N %LOO &ORVHG :LQJV )OLFNHG r r N N :LQJV 'RZQ 7DLO )OLFNHG r r N N 7DLO 'RZQ &RQWLQXHG &K

PAGE 102

7DEOH &RQWLQXHG %HKDYLRUDO &RPSRQHQW $WWDFN 6XEVHTXHQW %HKDYLRU RI 6LJQDOHU 3 $WWDFN 6XEVHTXHQW %HKDYLRU RI 5HFHLYHU 3 5HWUHDW 6WD\ 1 5HWUHDW 6WD\ 1 )DFLQJ 5LYDO r r r r )DFLQJ $ZD\ D3HUFHQW RI 7RWDO RFFXUUHQFHV rr ; S

PAGE 103

7DEOH *UD\%UHDVWHG 0DUWLQV %HKDYLRUDO &RPSRQHQWV RI 'LVSOD\V 9HUVXV 6XEVHTXHQW %HKDYLRU RI 6LJQDOHU DQG RI 5HFHLYHU 6XEVHTXHQW %HKDYLRU 6XEVHTXHQW %HKDYLRU RI 6LJQDOHU RI 5HFHLYHU %HKDYLRUDO &RPSRQHQW $WWDFN 5HWUHDW 6WD\ 1 3 $WWDFN 5HWUHDW 6WD\ 1 3 %RG\ +RUL]RQWDO LF r r r %RG\ 8SULJKW %RG\ )HDWKHUV 6OHHNHG r r %RG\ )HDWKHUV (UHFW &UHVW 6OHHNHG r r r &UHVW (UHFW %LOO 2SHQ r r r %LOO &ORVHG :LQJV )OLFNHG r r :LQJV 'RZQ 7DLO )OLFNHG r r r 7DLO 'RZQ &RQWLQXHG &2 RR

PAGE 104

7DEOH &RQWLQXHG %HKDYLRUDO &RPSRQHQW $WWDFN 6XEVHTXHQW %HKDYLRU RI 6LJQDOHU 3 $WWDFN 6XEVHTXHQW %HKDYLRU RI 5HFHLYHU 3 5HWUHDW 6WD\ 1 5HWUHDW 6WD\ 1 )DFLQJ 5LYDO f r )DFLQJ $ZD\ 3HUFHQW RI 7RWDO RFFXUUHQFHV rr ; S

PAGE 105

ERG\ IHDWKHUV HUHFW WKH SUREDELOLW\ RI LWV UHWUHDWLQJ LQFUHDVHG IURP ]HUR WR b Q ILHOG UHFRUGVf 6LPLn ODUO\ LWV SUREDELOLW\ RI DWWDFNLQJ GURSSHG IURP b WR b Q ILHOG UHFRUGVf DQG WKH SUREDELOLW\ RI VWD\LQJ GURSSHG IURP b WR b Q ILHOG UHFRUGVf 6LPLODU FKDQJHV UHVXOWHG LQ WKH *0 ZKHQ D ELUG FKDQJHG IURP KDYLQJ LWV ERG\ IHDWKHUV LQ VOHHNHG WR HUHFWHG SRVLWLRQ 6LJQDO 9DOXH RI 3RVWXUDO &RPSRQHQWV VWXGLHG WKH IXQFWLRQ RI SRVWXUDO FRPSRQHQWV LQ PDUWLQV E\ PHDVXULQJ WKH HIIHFWV RI D JLYHQ FRPSRQHQW RI D VLJQDOHU XSRQ WKH EHKDYLRU RI D UHFLSLHQW 7DEOHV DQG f 7KH DVVXPSWLRQ RI DJJUHVVLYH SRVWXUDO FRPSRQHQWV E\ D VLJQDOHU KDG FRQVLGHUDEOH HIIHFW XSRQ WKH EHKDYLRU RI D UHFLSLHQW %RG\ DQG FUHVW IHDWKHUV VOHHNHG ERG\ KRUL]RQn WDO DQG IDFLQJ WKH RSSRQHQW DOO UHGXFHG DWWDFN IURP WKH UHFLSLHQW DW D WHUULWRULDO ERXQGDU\ 7KH UHFLSLHQW VWD\HG PRUH DQG UHWUHDWHG OHVV RIWHQ 7KH RSHQ ELOO RI D VLJQDOHU UHGXFHG ERWK DWWDFN DQG VWD\ E\ WKH UHFLSLHQW ZLWK D FRUUHVSRQGLQJ LQFUHDVH LQ UHWUHDWLQJ E\ WKH UHFLSLHQW ,Q WKH 30 RSHQ ELOO KDG WKH JUHDWHVW SUREDELOLW\ RI HOLFLWLQJ UHWUHDW LQ WKH UHFLSLHQW b Q ILHOG UHFRUGVf DQG WKH ORZHVW SUREDELOLW\ RI EHLQJ IROORZHG E\ UHWUHDW b Q ILHOG UHFRUGVf IURP WKH VLJQDOHU 7DEOH f $ VLJQDOHU ZLWK ELOO FORVHG ERG\ DQG FUHVW IHDWKHUV HUHFW ERG\ XSULJKW DQG IDFLQJ DZD\ DOO LQFUHDVHG WKH SUREDELOLW\ RI DWWDFN IURP D UHFLSLHQW ,Q WKH *0 IDFLQJ DZD\ KDG WKH

PAGE 106

KLJKHVW SUREDELOLW\ RI HOLFLWLQJ DWWDFN LQ WKH UHFLSLHQW b Q ILHOG UHFRUGVf DQG WKH ORZHVW SUREDELOLW\ RI HOLFLWLQJ UHWUHDW b Q ILHOG UHFRUGVf LQ WKH UHFLSLHQW 7DEOH f $V VKRZQ LQ 7DEOHV DQG GLIIHUHQW SRVWXUHV FRXOG EH XVHG RQO\ DV JHQHUDO LQGLFDWRUV RI WKH WHQGHQF\ WR DFW EXW VXEVHTXHQW SRVWXUDO FRPSRQHQWV FRXOG DOORZ D UHFLSLHQW WR SUHGLFW ZKHWKHU D VLJQDOHU ZRXOG DWWDFN VWD\ RU UHWUHDW 7KHVH FRPSRQHQWV PD\ EH GLYLGHG LQWR WKUHH JURXSV f LQGLFDWRUV RI SUREDEOH DWWDFNf§ELOO RSHQ ERG\ KRUL]RQn WDO ZLQJV IOLFNHG WDLO IOLFNHG f LQGLFDWRUV RI SUREDEOH UHWUHDWf§IDFLQJ DZD\ ERG\ XSULJKW ERG\ IHDWKHUV HUHFW FUHVW HUHFW ZLQJV GRZQ WDLO GRZQ DQG f LQGLFDWRUV RI SUREDEOH VWD\LQJf§IDFLQJ ULYDO ELOO FORVHG FUHVW VOHHNHG ERG\ IHDWKHUV VOHHNHG ZLQJV IOLFNHG WDLO IOLFNHG 3UHVHQWDWLRQ RI WKH %LOO ,Q WKH WKUHDW GLVSOD\V RI PDUWLQV WKH ELOO ZDV WKH PRVW IUHTXHQWO\ XVHG ZHDSRQ RI DWWDFN DQG VHOHFWLRQ KDV VHHPLQJO\ DFWHG WR HLWKHU PD[LPL]H RU PLQLPL]H WKH SUHVHQn WDWLRQ RI WKH ELOO GHSHQGLQJ RQ WKH VLWXDWLRQ 7KHUH ZDV FRQVLGHUDEOH IOH[LELOLW\ LQ WKH XVH RI WKH ELOO ZKLFK FRXOG EH SRLQWHG RU PRYHG IRUZDUG RSHQHG ZLGH DQG WXUQHG VLGHn ZD\V ,Q ERWK +HDG )RUZDUG GLVSOD\V ZKLFK LQGLFDWHG KLJK SUREDELOLW\ RI DWWDFN WKH ELOO ZDV SUHVHQWHG IRUZDUG DV D ZHDSRQ ,Q WKH +LJK8S GLVSOD\V ZKLFK LQGLFDWHG ORZ SUREDELOLW\ RI DWWDFN WKH ELOO ZDV UDLVHG RU ORZHUHG RXW RI

PAGE 107

GLUHFW FRQWDFWOLQH ZLWK DQ RSSRQHQW 7KHVH WZR JURXSV RI GLVSOD\V ZHUH FOHDUO\ GLIIHUHQW HQRXJK WR DYRLG DPELJXLW\ RI PHDQLQJ 7KHUH DOVR ZDV D JUDGLHQW LQ WKH GHJUHH RI ELOO SUHVHQn WDWLRQ IURP WKH OHDVW WR WKH PRVW DJJUHVVLYH GLVSOD\V )LJXUH f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n UHSHUWRLUH &DWHJRUL]DWLRQ DFFRUGLQJ WR FRQVHTXHQFHV LV D SRVVLEOH DOWHUQDWLYH WR WKDW DFFRUGLQJ WR IRUP +LQGH f ,I WKH EHKDYLRU RI D VLJQDOHU RU UHFLSLHQW IROORZLQJ D GLVSOD\ ZDV FRPSDUHG ZLWK KLV EHKDYLRU IROORZLQJ DOO RWKHU GLVSOD\V GLIIHUHQFHV HPHUJHG LQ GHILQLQJ EHKDYLRUDO FDWHn JRULHV )LJXUHV f 7KH 30 GDWD IURP )LJXUH VKRZHG

PAGE 108

)LJXUH /XQJH KLJK LQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW *DSLQJ ,QFUHDVLQJ SUHVHQWDWLRQ RI ELOO DQG SUREDELOLW\ RI DWWDFN %LOOVQDSSLQJ ORZ LQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW $OHUW +LJK8S :LWKGUDZ +LJK8S *UDGDWLRQ RI WKUHDW GLVSOD\

PAGE 109

6X2}UTXmQW EFKRYLRU RI 6LJQDOHU 3XUSOH 0RULPf $OrFK 5mWUmRW 6WR\ U 22U )LJXUH 3DLUZLVH FRPSDULVRQV RI SUREDELOLWLHV WKDW D 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ VLJQDOHU ZLOO DWWDFN UHWUHDW RU VWD\ IRU DOO SRVVLEOH FRPELQWDWLRQV RI GLVSOD\V 'DUN EORFNV LQGLFDWH D VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH DW WKH OHYHO WHVW IRU VLJQLILFDQFH EHWZHHQ WZR SURSRUWLRQV /,+) ORZLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW +,+) KLJKLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW *DSLQJ %6 %LOOVQDSSLQJ / /XQJH :+8 :LWKGUDZ +LJK8S $+8 $OHUW +LJK8S

PAGE 110

6XEVHTXHQW EHKRYLRU RI 5HFLSLHQW 3XU SW H 0RU WLQf $RFK 5HWUHRW 6WR\ L RR )LJXUH 3DLUZLVH FRPSDULVRQV RI SUREDELOLWLHV WKDW D 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ UHFHLYHU ZLOO DWWDFN UHWUHDW RU VWD\ IRU DOO SRVVLEOH FRPELQWDWLRQV RI GLVSOD\V 'DUN EORFNV LQGLFDWH D VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH DW WKH OHYHO WHVW IRU VLJQLILFDQFH EHWZHHQ WZR SURSRUWLRQV /,+) ORZLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW +,+) KLJKLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW *DSLQJ %6 %LOOVQDSSLQJ / /XQJH :+8 :LWKGUDZ +LJK8S $+8 $OHUW +LJK8S

PAGE 111

6XEVHTXHQW EHKRZLRU RI 6LJQROHU *U R\EI HRV W r0RUOLQf U R 'LVSOD\} )LJXUH 3DLUZLVH FRPSDULVRQV RI SUREDELOLWLHV WKDW D *UD\EUHDVWHG 0DUWLQ VLJQDOHU ZLOO DWWDFN UHWUHDW RU VWD\ IRU DOO SRVVLEOH FRPELQWDWLRQV RI GLVSOD\V 'DUN EORFNV LQGLFDWH D VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH DW WKH OHYHO WHVW IRU VLJQLILn FDQFH EHWZHHQ WZR SURSRUWLRQV /,+) ORZ LQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW +,+) KLJKLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW *DSLQJ %6 %LOOVQDSSLQJ / /XQJH :+8 :LWKGUDZ +LJK8S $+8 $OHUW +LJK8S

PAGE 112

6XEVHTXHQW EHKDYLRU RI 5HFLSLHQW *UR\EUHDVWHG 0DUWLQf )LJXUH 3DLUZLVH FRPSDULVRQV RI SUREDELOLWLHV WKDW D *UD\EUHDVWHG 0DUWLQ UHFHLYHU ZLOO DWWDFN UHWUHDW RU VWD\ IRU DOO SRVVLEOH FRPELQWDWLRQV RI GLVSOD\V 'DUN EORFNV LQGLFDWH D VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH DW WKH OHYHO WHVW IRU VLJQLILn FDQFH EHWZHHQ WZR SURSRUWLRQV /,+) ORZ LQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW +,+) KLJKLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW *DSLQJ %6 %LOOVQDSSLQJ / /XQJH :+8 :LWKGUDZ +LJK8S $+8 $OHUW +LJK8S

PAGE 113

WKDW ZKLOH SDLUZLVH FRPSDULVRQV RI GLVSOD\V WKDW SUHGLFWHG DWWDFN WR WKH KXPDQ REVHUYHU VXFK DV EHWZHHQ ORZLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW*DSLQJ KLJKLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW/XQJH DQG *DSLQJ%LOOVQDSSLQJf ZHUH GLVWLQJXLVKDEOH DV VHSDUDWH GLVSOD\V LQ SUHGLFWLQJ VLJQDOHU EHKDYLRU D FRPSDULVRQ RI VHYHUDO RWKHU GLVSOD\ SDLUV WKDW SUHGLFWHG DWWDFN VXFK DV EHWZHHQ ORZLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW %LOOVQDSSLQJ DQG KLJKLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW*DSLQJf ZHUH GLVWLQJXLVKDEOH DV VHSDUDWH GLVSOD\V LQ SUHGLFWLQJ VLJQDOHU EHKDYLRU ([DPLQDWLRQ RI WKH 30 GDWD )LJXUH f VKRZHG WKDW RXW RI SRVVLEOH SDLUZLVH FRPSDULVRQV DOORZHG IRU GLIIHUn HQWLDWLRQ RI GLVSOD\V LQ SUHGLFWLQJ VLJQDOHU EHKDYLRU ZDV XQDEOH WR GLVWLQJXLVK EHWZHHQ RXW RI RI WKHVH SDLUZLVH FRPSDULVRQV LQ SUHGLFWLQJ UHFLSLHQW EHKDYLRU )LJXUH f 'DWD IURP WKH *0 LOOXVWUDWHG VLPLODU UHVXOWV ZKHQ LQGLYLGXDO GLVSOD\V ZHUH FRPSDUHG )LJXUHV DQG f 7KLV ZDV SDUWLFXODUO\ WUXH IRU H[DPSOH ZKHQ FRPSDULQJ /XQJH ZLWK DOO RWKHU GLVSOD\V /XQJH ZDV IUHTXHQWO\ IROORZHG E\ DWWDFN :KHQ FRPSDULQJ WKH /XQJH ZLWK $OHUW +LJK8S RU :LWKGUDZ +LJK8S WZR GLVSOD\V ZLWK KLJK SUREDELOLWLHV RI EHLQJ IROORZHG E\ UHWUHDW RU VWD\LQJ SXW FRXOG SUHGLFW WKH VXEVHTXHQW DFWLYLW\ RI WKH VLJQDOHU +RZHYHU ZKHQ FRPSDUHG /XQJH ZLWK ORZ DQG KLJKLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW WZR GLVSOD\V ZLWK KLJK SUREDELOLWLHV RI EHLQJ

PAGE 114

IROORZHG E\ DWWDFN FRXOG QRW DFFXUDWHO\ SUHGLFW WKH VXEVHTXHQW DFWLRQ RI WKH VLJQDOHU :KHQ FRPSDULQJ GLVSOD\V WKDW SUHGLFWHG VWD\ RU UHWUHDW VXFK DV EHWZHHQ :LWKGUDZ +LJK8S$OHUW +LJK8S DQDO\VLV UHYHDOHG WKDW UHFLSLHQWV ZHUH XQDEOH WR GLIIHUHQWLDWH EHWZHHQ WKHVH WZR GLVSOD\V 5HFLSLHQWV SUREDEO\ UHFRJQL]HG WKDW WKH VLJQDOHU GLG QRW FRQVWLWXWH D WKUHDW DQG WKH UHFLSLHQWVn IUHTXHQF\ RI VWD\LQJ SXW LQFUHDVHG &RQYHUVHO\ LQ VLWXDWLRQV LQ ZKLFK GLVSOD\V FRXOG KDYH GLIIHUHQW HIIHFWV VHOHFWLRQ ZRXOG IDYRU WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI XQPLVWDNDEO\ GLIIHUHQW VLJQDOV 'DUZLQ f )RU LQVWDQFH WKH +LJK8S GLVSOD\V RI DSSHDVLQJ PDUWLQV LQ ZKLFK DQ LQGLYLGXDO ZLWKGUHZ LWV ELOO IURP D SRVLWLRQ RI DWWDFN FRQWUDVWHG ZLWK WKH DJJUHVVLYH +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW GLVSOD\V LQ ZKLFK WKH ELOO ZDV SRLQWHG IRUZDUG DV D ZHDSRQ %HFDXVH UHFLSLHQWV RI GLVSOD\V RIWHQ ZHUH XQDEOH WR GLIIHUHQWLDWH EHWZHHQ GLVSOD\V LQIRUPDWLRQ RI VRPH RWKHU NLQG DOVR PXVW GHWHUPLQH WKH UHFLSLHQWnV UHVSRQVH 7KHUH LV LQFUHDVLQJ HYLGHQFH WKDW WKH PHDQLQJ RI D JLYHQ GLVSOD\ GHSHQGV ERWK RQ WKH VLWXDWLRQ DQG RQ WKH FRQWH[W RI RWKHU GLVSOD\V LQ ZKLFK LW LV JLYHQ 'DZNLQV t .UHEV 6WRXW :LOH\ f ,Q SDUWLFXODU 6PLWK f KDV DUJXHG WKH QHHG WR GLVWLQJXLVK EHWZHHQ PHVVDJHV PHDQLQJV DQG IXQFWLRQV DQG KLV DQDO\VHV RI FRPPXQLFDWLRQ LQ WU\DQQLG IO\FDWFKHUV KDYH GUDZQ DWWHQWLRQ WR WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI WKH FRQWH[W LQ ZKLFK VLJQDOV DUH GHOLYHUHG DQG WKH OLNHOLKRRG WKDW GLVSOD\V KDYH GLIIHUHQW PHDQLQJV LQ GLIIHUHQW

PAGE 115

VLWXDWLRQV ,QFUHDVLQJ DWWHQWLRQ QRZ LV EHLQJ SDLG WR SRVVLEOH PXOWLSOH IXQFWLRQV RI GLVSOD\V %HHU .UHEV DQG 'DYLHV 5LFKDUGV f DQG WR ZD\V LQ ZKLFK LQIRUPDWLRQ LV JLYHQ WR FRQVSHFLILFV RWKHU WKDQ E\ GLVSOD\V %DNHU t 3DUNHU f :KHQ D GLVSOD\ LV SHUIRUPHG D UHFLSLHQWnV UHVSRQVH PD\ GHSHQG ODUJHO\ RQ ZKHUH KH LV VXFK DV LQ KLV WHUULWRU\ RU QRWf RQ ZKHWKHU KH VHHV WKH VLJQDOHU DSSURDFKLQJ UHWUHDWLQJ RU UHPDLQLQJ VWLOO RQ ZKDW KH KDV VHHQ WKH VLJQDOHU GR LQ SDVW HYHQWV DQG HYHQ RQ UHDO GLIIHUHQFHV LQ SDUWLFLSDQWVn VL]H VWUHQJWK RU DJH ZKLFK FRXOG DIIHFW WKH RXWFRPH RI DQ HQFRXQWHU 0D\QDUG 6PLWK 5XEHQVWHLQ f 'LVFXVVLRQ 7KH SXEOLFDWLRQ RI D VHULHV RI SDSHUV RQ VWUDWHJLHV RI FRPPXQLFDWLRQ ZULWWHQ E\ 0D\QDUG 6PLWK DQG 3DUNHU 0D\QDUG 6PLWK 0D\QDUG 6PLWK t 3DUNHU 3DUNHU f FRPSULVHG D ODQGPDUN LQ WKH VWXG\ RI DQLPDO FRPPXQLFDWLRQ 7KHLU JDPHWKHRU\ DSSURDFK WR DJRQLVWLF EHKDYLRU LQ DQLPDOV IRUPXODWHG WKH EDVLF SUHGLFWLRQ WKDW ZKHQ ILJKWLQJ HQWDLOV D VLJQLILFDQW ULVN RI SK\VLFDO LQMXU\ LQGLYLGXDOV ZLOO EH H[SHFWHG XVH OHVV GDQJHURXV PRUH FRQYHQWLRQDO VWUDWHJLHV IRU VHWWOLQJ GLVSXWHV RYHU WKH SRVVHVVLRQ RI UHVRXUFHV 7KHVH FRQYHQWLRQV XVXDOO\ WDNH WKH IRUP RI ULWXDOL]HG GLVSOD\V RU WULDOV RI VWUHQJWK 3DUNHU f

PAGE 116

0D\QDUG 6PLWK f FRQVLGHUHG DQ DJRQLVWLF FRQWHVW WKDW ZDV VHWWOHG E\ GLVSOD\V DORQH LQ KLV ZDU RI DWWULWLRQ PRGHO +H FRQFOXGHG WKDW WKH PRVW DGYDQWDJHRXV VWUDWHJ\ LV RQH LQ ZKLFK ERWK FRQWHVWDQWV GLVSOD\ ZLWK FRQVWDQW LQWHQVLW\ XQWLO WKH LQGLYLGXDO WKDW LV OHVV SUHSDUHG WR HVFDODWH VLPSO\ JLYHV XS 0D\QDUG 6PLWK DQG 3DUNHU f DUJXHG WKDW VHOHFWLRQ VKRXOG RSSRVH DQ\ WHQGHQF\ IRU DJJUHVVLYH GLVSOD\V WR UHYHDO LQWHQWLRQ VXFK GLVSOD\V VKRXOG HYROYH WRZDUG W\SLFDO LQWHQVLW\ 7KH UDWLRQDOH EHKLQG WKHVH DUJXPHQWV ZDV WKDW VLQFH DWWDFN ZDV OLNHO\ WR LQYROYH D KLJKHU FRVW WKDQ GLVSOD\ DORQH WR ERWK FRQWHVWDQWV WKH GLVSOD\ VKRXOG FRQFHDO LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW WKH SUREDELOLW\ RI HVFDODWLRQ DQG PHUHO\ VLJQDO WKDW DQ DWWDFN FRXOG RFFXU DW DQ\ WLPH &DU\OnV f UHDQDO\VLV RI WKUHDW GLVSOD\ GDWD LQ ELUGV VKRZHG TXLWH FOHDUO\ WKDW FRPSRQHQWV SUHFHGLQJ DWWDFN SUHGLFWHG DWWDFN PXFK OHVV UHOLDEO\ WKDQ RWKHU FRPSRQHQWV SUHGLFWHG RWKHU EHKDYLRUV HJ HVFDSHf 7KH LPPHGLDWH FRQFOXVLRQ IURP WKLV LV WKDW DQLPDOV VKRXOG LJQRUH LQIRUPDWLRQ VLJQDOHG E\ WKHLU RSSRQHQWV +RZHYHU WKLV LV QRW LQ DFFRUGDQFH ZLWK HWKRORJLFDO REVHUn YDWLRQV $ ODUJH QXPEHU RI VWXGLHV KDYH VKRZQ WKDW LQIRUn PDWLRQ LV WUDQVPLWWHG WKH UHVSRQVH RI WKH UHFHLYHU YDULHV ZLWK WKH EHKDYLRU RI WKH VHQGHU HJ $QGHUVVRQ 'LQJOH 'XQKDP 6WRNHV Ef 0RUHRYHU PRWLYDWLRQDO DQDO\VHV RI GLVSOD\V %OXUWRQ-RQHV 7LQEHUJHQ f FOHDUO\ VKRZHG WKDW WKH SUREDELOLW\ RI DQ

PAGE 117

DQLPDO DWWDFNLQJ RU IOHHLQJ YDULHG ZLWK WKH SUHFHGLQJ EHKDYLRU VKRZQ E\ WKH DQLPDO &RQVHTXHQWO\ WKH EHKDYLRU RI WKH RSSRQHQW PXVW FRQWDLQ UHOHYDQW LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW FRVW DQG EHQHILW DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK DYDLODEOH RSWLRQV )XUWKHUPRUH WKH UDWLRQDOH IRU ZK\ PDQ\ DQLPDOV KDYH VHYHUDO GLIIHUHQW WKUHDW GLVSOD\V DQG RWKHU YDULDWLRQV LQ DJJUHVVLYH EHKDYLRU GHPDQGV D IXQFWLRQDO H[SODQDWLRQ $QGHUVVRQ &DU\O 'DZNLQV t .UHEV 0D\QDUG 6PLWK :LOH\ f ,I WKH YDULDWLRQ LQ VLJQDOLQJ GRHV QRW JLYH DQ\ EHQHILW WR WKH VHQGHU RQH EHKDYLRUDO RSWLRQ ZRXOG VXIILFH ,Q QDWXUH KRZHYHU WKH PDMRULW\ RI DQLPDO FRQWHVWV DUH DV\PPHWULF 2SSRQHQWV UDUHO\ DUH PDWFKHG HTXDOO\ HLWKHU LQ KRZ JUHDWO\ WKH\ YDOXH WKH FRQWHVWHG UHVRXUFH RU LQ WHUPV RI ILJKWLQJ DELOLW\ UHVRXUFH KROGLQJ SRWHQWLDO 5+3f 3DUNHU 0D\QDUG 6PLWK t 3DUNHU f 3ULRU RZQHUVKLS RI D UHVRXUFH E\ RQH LQGLYLGXDO DOVR PD\ FRQWULEXWH DQ DGGLWLRQDO DV\PPHWU\ WR FRQWHVWV 0D\QDUG 6PLWK f 7KH H[LVWHQFH RI FRQWHVW DV\PPHWULHV ZLOO WHQG WR SURGXFH VHOHFWLRQ LQ IDYRU RI LQGLYLGXDOV ZKR DUH FDSDEOH RI HVWLPDWLQJ WKHLU RZQ SUREDELOLW\ RI ZLQQLQJ FRQWHVWV E\ ILUVW DVVHVVLQJ WKH RSSRQHQWnV 5+3 UHODWLYH WR WKHLU RZQ :KHQ ILJKWLQJ LV SRWHQWLDOO\ GDQJHURXV RSSRQHQWV ZRXOG EH H[SHFWHG WR XVH WKH TXDOLW\ DQG YLJRU RI HDFK RWKHUnV GLVSOD\V DV WKH EDVLV IRU PDNLQJ WKLV DVVHVVPHQW 3DUNHU f 7KHUHIRUH WKUHDW GLVSOD\V QHHG WR EH YLHZHG QRW RQO\ DV FRQYHQWLRQDO DOWHUQDWLYHV WR SK\VLFDO FRPEDW EXW DOVR DV H[HUFLVHV LQ UHFLSURFDO LQWLPLGDWLRQ =DKDYL f

PAGE 118

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n VL]HG $OO WKUHH K\SRWKHVHV FRXOG EH FRUUHFW IRU GLIIHUHQW VWDJHV LQ ULWXDOL]DWLRQ ,QLWLDOO\ VLJQDOV PD\ KDYH EHFRPH ULWXDOL]HG EHFDXVH RI WKH EHQHILW RI UHGXFHG DPELJXLW\ 1H[W VHOHFWLRQ RQ VLJQDOHUV WR PDQLSXODWH UHFHLYHUV PD\ KDYH OHG WR JUHDWHU H[DJJHUDWLRQ DQG VWHUHRW\S\ )LQDOO\ VDOHV UHVLVWDQFH DQG GLVFULPLQDWLRQ E\ UHFHLYHUV PD\ KDYH OHG WR GLVSOD\V SDUWLFXODUO\ LQ WKRVH XVHG LQ DVVHVVPHQW EHLQJ SHUIRUPHG LQ D ZD\ WKDW DOORZV DVVHVVPHQW RI GLIIHUn HQFHV EHWZHHQ VLJQDOHUV 6LJQDOV ZKLFK GR QRW DOORZ UHOLn DEOH DVVHVVPHQW PD\ JUDGXDOO\ ORVH WKHLU HIIHFWLYHQHVV DQG EH UHSODFHG E\ QHZ RQHV 7KH WKUHH K\SRWKHVHV FDQ WR VRPH H[WHQW EH HYDOXDWHG E\ LQGLUHFW WHVWV &DU\O f UHDQDO\]HG GDWD RQ DYLDQ WKUHDW GLVSOD\V IURP 6WRNHVnV Df ZRUN RQ %OXH 7LWV 3DUXV FDHUXOHXVf DW D ZLQWHU IHHGLQJ VWDWLRQ 'XQKDPnV f SDSHU RQ FDSWLYH 5RVHEUHDVWHG *URVEHDNV 3KHXFWLFXV OXGRYLFLDQXVf DQG $QGHUVVRQnV f ZRUN RQ *UHDW 6NXDV

PAGE 119

6WHUFRUDULXV VNXDf DW D EUHHGLQJ FRORQ\ &DU\OnV UHDQDO\n VLV VKRZHG WKDW ZKLOH VRPH GLVSOD\V SUHGLFWHG UHWUHDW IDLUO\ DFFXUDWHO\ WKRVH GLVSOD\V WKDW EHVW SUHGLFWHG DWWDFN ZHUH IROORZHG E\ DWWDFN RQ RQO\ b RU OHVV RI RFFDVLRQV )RU H[DPSOH LQ UHYLHZLQJ 6WRNHVnV GDWD Df ILYH GLVSOD\ FRPSRQHQWV FRPELQHG LQ HLJKW ZD\V ZHUH IROORZHG E\ DWWDFN RQ RQO\ b b DQG b RI RFFDVLRQV ZKHUHDV WZR GLVSOD\V SUHGLFWHG UHWUHDW RQ b DQG b RI RFFDVLRQV ,Q $QGHUVVRQnV f GDWD RQ WKH *UHDW 6NXD WZR SRVWXUHV 1HFN 1RUPDO DQG 1HFN 6KRUWf SUHGLFWHG UHWUHDW ZLWK D KLJK SUREDELOLW\ ZKHUHDV DWWDFN FRXOG QRW EH SUHGLFWHG ZLWK PRUH WKDQ D b FKDQFH RI VXFFHVV IURP D NQRZOHGJH RI WKH GLVn SOD\V $ VLPLODU GLIIHUHQFH ZDV HYLGHQW LQ WKH *URVEHDN 'XQKDP f DWWDFN FRXOG EH SUHGLFWHG ZLWK D b FKDQFH RI VXFFHVV DW EHVW 0\ PDUWLQ GDWD VKRZ WKDW WKH EHVW SUHGLFWRUV RI DWWDFN RSHQ ELOO WDLO IOLFNHG DQG ERG\ KRUL]RQWDOf ZHUH IROORZHG E\ DWWDFN LQ 30V b b DQG b RI RFFDVLRQV DQG LQ *0V b b DQG b RI RFFDVLRQV $OWKRXJK P\ YDOXHV ZHUH KLJKHU WKDQ WKRVH LQ WKH WKUHH VWXGLHV FLWHG DERYH WKH KLJKHU SUREDELOLW\ RI DWWDFN PD\ EH GXH LQ SDUW WR FRQGLWLRQV RI WKH PDUWLQ QHVW VLWH DUUDQJHPHQW DQG WKH UHVXOWDQW IRUFHG SUR[LPLW\ 7KHVH GDWD ZRXOG EH FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK WKH PDQLSXODWLRQ K\SRWKHVLV ZKLFK SUHGLFWV WKDW VLJQDOHUV VKRXOG JLYH DZD\ OLWWOH LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW WKHLU PRWLYDWLRQDO VWDWH 7KH LQIRUPDWLRQ K\SRWKHVLV ZKLFK SUHGLFWV WKDW WKUHDW VLJQDOV VKRXOG FRPPXQLFDWH WKH IXWXUH

PAGE 120

EHKDYLRU RI WKH VLJQDOHU ZLWK PD[LPXP FODULW\ ZRXOG EH OHVV OLNHO\ +LQGH f VXJJHVWV KRZHYHU WKDW &DU\OnV f DQDO\VLV PD\ EH WRR VLPSOH +H SRLQWV RXW WKDW VRPH RI WKH GLVSOD\V FRQVLGHUHG E\ &DU\O DUH JRRG SUHGLFWRUV RI DWWDFN RU VWD\ SXW RU IOHH RU VWD\ SXW 7KLV PLJKW LQGLFDWH WKDW WKH VLJQDOHU VLJQDOV D FRQGLWLRQDO VWUDWHJ\ DQG WKDW LWV IXWXUH EHKDYLRU GHSHQGV RQ WKH UHFLSLHQWnV UHVSRQVH 7KLV LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ UHTXLUHV DQ DGYDQWDJH IRU VLJQDOHUV WR FRPPXQLFDWH LQWHQWLRQ WR UHWUHDW 2WKHUZLVH LW ZRXOG SD\ WR VLJQDO KLJK SUREDELOLW\ RI DWWDFN DOO WKH WLPH LQ WKH KRSH RI GHWHUULQJ WKH ULYDO 6LJQDOV RI KLJK DWWDFN SUREDEn LOLW\ PLJKW VFDUH DQ RSSRQHQW DZD\ EXW WKH\ FRXOG DOVR UHVXOW LQ WKH RSSRQHQW EHFRPLQJ PRUH DJJUHVVLYH *LYHQ WKLV XQFHUWDLQW\ WKH VLJQDOHU VKRXOG EH SUHSDUHG WR EDFN XS LWV WKUHDW ZLWK DFWLRQ RU IDFH WKH FRVW RI EHLQJ DWWDFNHG $ IHDWXUH FRPPRQ WR 6WRNHV Df 'XQKDP f DQG $QGHUVVRQ f ZDV WKDW DJRQLVWLF GLVSOD\V SUHGLFWHG D JUHDWHU WKDQ b FKDQFH WKDW VLJQDOHUV ZRXOG VWD\ SXW DQG QHLWKHU DWWDFN RSSRQHQWV QRU UHWUHDW IURP WKHP $JRQLVWLF GLVSOD\V ZHUH IROORZHG E\ WKH ELUG VWD\LQJ ZKHUH LW ZDV LQ b RI RFFDVLRQV LQ 6WRNHVnV VWXG\ b LQ 'XQKDPnV VWXG\ DQG b LQ $QGHUVVRQnV VWXG\ DV FRPSDUHG WR b LQ WKH 30 DQG b LQ WKH *0 RI P\ VWXG\ 7KLV VXJJHVWV WKDW DJRQLVWLF GLVSOD\V FDUU\ DQ DOWHUQDWLYH PHVVDJH RI VKDOO DWWDFN RU VWD\ RU VKDOO UHWUHDW RU VWD\ UDWKHU WKDQ FRQYH\LQJ SUHFLVH LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW DWWDFN UHWUHDW RU VWD\ 7KLV

PAGE 121

LQWHUDFWLRQDO DSSURDFK GHSHQGV LQ SDUW RQ WKH EHKDYLRU RI WKH UHFLSLHQW 0\ UHVXOWV DUH LQWHUHVWLQJ LQ WKLV FRQWH[W DV WKH\ LQGLFDWH WKDW DWWDFNV DUH QRW DOZD\V LQKLELWHG E\ WKH RSSRQHQWnV PRYLQJ RU WXUQLQJ DZD\ ([DPLQDWLRQ RI WKH 30 GDWD VKRZV WKDW :LWKGUDZ +LJK8S SUHGLFWHG UHWUHDW RU VWD\ LQ b RI RFFDVLRQV DQG $OHUW +LJK8S LQ b 7DEOH f 7KH UHPDLQGHU RI WKH GLVSOD\V SUHGLFWHG DWWDFN RU VWD\ LQ b RI ORZLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW b RI KLJKLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW b RI *DSLQJ b RI %LOOVQDSSLQJ DQG b RI /XQJH 6LPLODUO\ RXW RI WKH *0 GDWD KLJKLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW %LOOVQDSSLQJ DQG /XQJH SUHGLFWHG DWWDFN RU VWD\ LQ b RI RFFDVLRQV 7DEOH f /RZLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW DQG %LOOVQDSSLQJ SUHGLFWHG DWWDFN RU VWD\ DW b DQG b RI RFFDVLRQV UHVSHFWLYHO\ $OHUW +LJK8S DQG :LWKGUDZ +LJK8S SUHGLFWHG UHWUHDW RU VWD\ DW b DQG b RI RFFDVLRQV )XUWKHUPRUH HLWKHU DWWDFN RU UHWUHDW ZDV DW OHDVW WZLFH DV OLNHO\ DV WKH RWKHU H[FHSW LQ *DSLQJ ZKHUH ERWK ZHUH XQOLNHO\ 30 b DQG b *0 b DQG bf $ VXUYH\ RI WKH SRVWXUHV GLVFXVVHG E\ $QGHUVVRQ f 'XQKDP f DQG 6WRNHV D Ef SUHGLFWHG DWWDFN RU VWD\ LQ b WR b RI RFFDVLRQV DQG UHWUHDW RU VWD\ LQ b WR b RI RFFDVLRQV 7KLV VXJJHVWV WKDW GLVSOD\V DUH VLJQDOV LQ EURDG WHUPV ZLOO DWWDFN RU VWD\ EXW ZLOO SUREDEO\ QRW UHWUHDW RU ZDQW WR VWD\ EXW LI \RX GR DP PRUH OLNHO\ WR DWWDFN WKDQ VWD\ 7KH LPSOLFDWLRQ LV WKDW ELUGV VKRXOG FRQVLGHU FDWHJRULHV RI EHKDYLRU :LWK

PAGE 122

WKLV DSSURDFK WKH ELUG VLJQDOV D FRQGLWLRQDO VWUDWHJ\ LQGLFDWLQJ WKDW LWV EHKDYLRU GHSHQGV RQ WKH UHFLSLHQWnV UHVSRQVH 2QH VXJJHVWHG DGYDQWDJH LV WKDW WKH VLJQDOLQJ RI SUREDELOLW\ RI DWWDFN LV PRUH OLNHO\ WR HYRNH YLFLRXV UHWDOLDWLRQ VR LW LV RQO\ ZRUWK WDNLQJ WKLV ULVN ZKHQ WKH EHQHILW RI VWD\LQJ LV KLJK ,Q PDUWLQV GLVSOD\V XVHG IRU EOXII SHUVXDVLRQ PDQLSXODWLRQ FRQYH\LQJ LQWHQWLRQ RU PRWLYDWLRQDO VWDWH RU DV WDFWLFV WR FUHDWH FRQIXVLRQ PD\ LQ IDFW YDU\ ZLWK WKH VSHFLILF UROH RI WKH FRQWHVWDQW 7KH KLJK SRWHQWLDO IRU LQMXU\ LQ PDUWLQ GLVSXWHV PD\ IDYRU DFFXUDWH LQIRUPDWLRQ WUDQVIHU DQG WKH FRQVHTXHQW ZLWKGUDZDO RI WKH OHVV PRWLn YDWHG ELUG 3DUNHU DQG 5XEHQVWHLQ f UHJDUGHG WKUHDW GLVSOD\V DV DGDSWDWLRQV IRU REWDLQLQJ LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW WKH RSSRQHQWn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f 6PLWK f :KLWHH\HG 9LUHRV 9UHR JULVHXV %UDGOH\ f DQG 5HG GHHU &HUYXV HODSKXV &OXWWRQ%URFN t $OERQ f WR QDPH EXW D IHZ

PAGE 123

7KHRULHV LQYROYLQJ JUDGXDO HVFDODWLRQ 'DZNLQV t .UHEV 3DUNHU t 5XEHQVWHLQ f VXJJHVW WKDW LQ DQ\ JLYHQ FRQWHVW LQGLYLGXDO VLJQDOLQJ FRPSRQHQWV ZLOO EHFRPH PRUH HODERUDWH RU FRVWO\ DV WKH GLVSOD\ SURJUHVVHV WRZDUGV DQ HYHQWXDO FRQFOXVLRQ 7KLV LPSOLHV WKDW GLIIHUHQW VLJQDOV FDQ EH DVVLJQHG WKUHDW YDOXHV SURSRUWLRQDO WR WKHLU HODERn UDWLRQ DQG LQWHQVLW\ RU LQIRUPDWLRQ FRQWHQW 3DUNHU t 5XEHQVWHLQ f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f VSHFXODWHG WKDW DJRQLVWLF LQIRUPDWLRQ VKRXOG EH UHYHDOHG ZKHQ FRQWHVWDQWV UHFRJQL]HG

PAGE 124

HDFK RWKHU DV LQGLYLGXDOV +H DOVR FODLPHG WKDW KRQHVW LQIRUPDWLRQ ZDV GHVLUDEOH ZKHQ WKHUH ZDV D FOHDU DV\PPHWU\ EHWZHHQ WKH DELOLWLHV RI WZR FRQWHVWDQWV ZKHQ WKH DV\PPHWU\ LV NQRZQ WR WKHP DQG ZKHQ OLDUV FDQ EH GHWHFWHG $QLPDOV ZRXOG WKHQ EH H[SHFWHG WR VLJQDO WKHLU ILJKWLQJ DELOLW\ E\ GLVSOD\V EXW WKH\ ZRXOG QRW EH H[SHFWHG WR VLJQDO WKHLU LQWHQWLRQV *LYHQ WKLV XVH RI FRPPXQLFDWLRQ LW LV LQDSSURn SULDWH WR DWWDFK DQ DOWUXLVWLF ODEHO WR LW &RPPXQLFDWLRQ LV QRW FRRSHUDWLYH LQ QDWXUH EHFDXVH LQWHUDFWLRQV XVXDOO\ LQYROYH LQHTXDOLWLHV LQ ERWK FRVWV DQG SD\RIIV ,QVWHDG FRPPXQLFDWLRQ PXVW EH VHOILVK SHUVXDGLQJ RWKHU LQGLYLGXDOV WR DFW WR WKH EHQHILW RI WKH VLJQDOHU UHJDUGOHVV RI WKH FRQVHTXHQFHV WR WKHPVHOYHV

PAGE 125

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f ,Q WKLV DQDO\VLV WKH PHDQLQJ RI D YRFDOL]DWLRQ ZDV LQWHUSUHWHG E\ VWXG\LQJ WKH DFWLRQV RI WKH UHFHLYHU ,Q WKH IROORZLQJ GLVFXVVLRQ KRZHYHU WKH PHDQLQJ RI D YRFDOL]DWLRQ ZLOO VRPHWLPHV EH SKUDVHG LQ WKH ILUVW SHUVRQ DV LI WKH

PAGE 126

,OO PRRG RU LQWHQWLRQ RI WKH VLJQDOHU RU UHFHLYHU FDQ EH SDUDn SKUDVHG LQ (QJOLVK 7KH SDUDSKUDVHG PHDQLQJV DUH QRW LQWHQGHG WR LPSO\ WKDW PDUWLQV SHUIRUP VXFK UHDVRQLQJf§MXVW WKDW WKH\ DFW DV LI WKH\ GR VR RU SHUIRUP VRPH IXQFWLRQDO HTXLYDOHQW SHUV FRPP -DQH %URFNPDQQ f 7KH YRFDO GLVSOD\V RI HDFK VSHFLHV ZHUH WUHDWHG VHSDn UDWHO\ (DFK RI WKH YRFDOL]DWLRQV ZDV GHVFULEHG LQ WHUPV RI LWV DFRXVWLF SURSHUWLHV DQG WKH VRFLDO FRQWH[WV LQ ZKLFK LW ZDV JLYHQ 0\ GHVFULSWLRQ RI WKH YRFDEXODU\ RI WKH 30 SURYLGHG D EDVLV IRU FRPSDULVRQ RI WKH YRFDOL]DWLRQV RI WKH *0 DQG &0 %URZQ f GHVFULEHG 30 YRFDOL]DWLRQV IURP 7H[DV DQG $UL]RQD $SSDUHQWO\ KH DQG HDFK IRXQG YRFDOLn ]DWLRQV WKDW WKH RWKHU GLG QRW 9RFDOL]DWLRQV RI WKH *0 DQG &0 KDYH QRW EHHQ SUHYLRXVO\ GHVFULEHG LQ WKH OLWHUDWXUH 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ &KHU FDOO 7KH &KHU FDOO )LJXUH $f ZDV GHOLYHUHG HLWKHU VLQJO\ RU LQ JURXSV RI WZR RI WKUHH V\OODEOHV [ s Q GLIIHUHQW UHFRUGVf LUUHJXODUO\ VSDFHG RYHU D SHULRG RI WR VHF 7KH GXUDWLRQ RI LQGLn YLGXDO V\OODEOHV DYHUDJHG s VHF 7KRXJK WKH IUHTXHQF\ UDQJH ZDV EHWZHHQ s N+] DQG s N+] WUDFHV RI KDUPRQLFV WR DERXW N+] ZHUH QRWHG 7KLV FDOO ZDV WKH PRVW XWWHUHG YRFDOL]DWLRQ LQ WKH 30 YRFDO UHSHUWRLUH DQG FDOOV IURP RQH ELUG ZRXOG IUHTXHQWO\

PAGE 127

)LJXUH 6RQRJUDPV RI 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ YRFDOL]DWLRQV $ VHULHV RI &KHU FDOOV IURP RQH LQGLYLGXDO % RQH =ZHHW FDOO & VHULHV RI 6ZHHW FDOOV IURP RQH LQGLYLGXDO VHULHV RI 6ZHHW FDOOV IURP RQH LQGLYLGXDO ZKHQ D FDW ZDV REVHUYHG ( =ZHHW DQG &KHU FDOOV IURP RQH RQHLYLGXDO ) +HHKHH FDOOV IURP WZR LQGLYLGXDOV

PAGE 128

HOLFLW FDOOLQJ LQ DQRWKHU 7KH &KHU FDOO ZDV JLYHQ E\ ERWK VH[HV ZLWK HTXDO IUHTXHQF\ b PDOHV DQG b IHPDOHV Q f DQG ZDV KHDUG WKURXJKRXW WKH EUHHGLQJ VHDVRQ 7KH PRVW FRPPRQ UHVSRQVH WR WKLV FDOO LQYROYHG SRVLWLRQDO FKDQJHV RI PXOWLURRP KRXVH PHPEHUV 2QH RI WKH PRVW FRQVSLFXRXV IHDWXUHV RI WKH XVDJH RI WKH &KHU FDOO ZDV WKDW WKH VLJQDOHU ZDV QHDUO\ DOZD\V SHUFKHG DQG PRPHQWDULO\ LQDFWLYH 0DOHV ZRXOG ZLQJ IOLFN RU SLYRW RQ WKHLU SHUFK EXW ZLWK WKH H[FHSWLRQ RI WKH $OHUW +LJK8S GLVSOD\ QR RWKHU YLVLEOH GLVSOD\ FRLQFLGHG ZLWK &KHU FDOOLQJ 7KH FDOOV ZHUH XVHG LQ D ZLGH YDULHW\ RI VLWXDWLRQV DQG VHHPHG WR LQGLFDWH D PRGHUDWH VWDWH RI DURXVDO 7KH &KHU ZDV DOVR KHDUG IURP ELUGV WKDW KDG MXVW DOLJKWHG IURP D IOLJKW b RI REVHUYDWLRQV Q f 7KH FDOO IXQFWLRQHG WR NHHS SDLU RU KRXVH PHPEHUV DSSULVHG RI HDFK RWKHUnV SRVLWLRQ (YLGHQFH IRU DQ DGYHUn WLVLQJ IXQFWLRQ ZDV JLYHQ E\ WKH IDFW WKDW f 30 JDYH WKLV FDOO LQ WKH DEVHQFH RI DQ\ REYLRXV UHFHLYHU RU H[WHUQDO VWLPXOL f SDLUV JDYH &KHUV ZKHQ RXW RI VLJKW RI HDFK RWKHU DV WKH\ IRUDJHG f \RXQJ UHVSRQGHG ZLWK EHJJLQJ FDOOV ZKHQ DQ DGXOW DUULYHG DW WKH QHVW KROH DQG JDYH WKLV FDOO DQG f IHPDOHV GXULQJ LQFXEDWLRQ RIWHQ UHVSRQGHG ZLWK &KRUWOH VRQJV ZKHQ PDOHV JDYH &KHU FDOOV RXWVLGH WKH QHVW KROH 7KH DQDORJRXV FDOO LQ RWKHU ELUG VSHFLHV LV IUHTXHQWO\ UHIHUUHG WR DV D FRQWDFW QRWH 6PLWK f 'XULQJ IOLJKW 30 JDYH IUHTXHQW &KHU DQG =ZHHW FDOOV +RZHYHU WKH\ FKDQJHG WR JLYLQJ &KHU FDOOV DV WKH\

PAGE 129

DSSURDFKHG D UHVRXUFH IRU ZKLFK WKHUH PLJKW EH FRPSHWLWLRQ VXFK DV D SHUFK RQ D PXOWLURRP KRXVH RU D WHOHSKRQH ZLUH WKHUHIRUH FROOHFWHG GDWD RQ YRFDOL]DWLRQV JLYHQ E\ 30 DV WKH\ DUULYHG s VHFf DW SHUFKLQJ VLWHV H[FOXGLQJ FDVHV LQ ZKLFK DQ DUULYLQJ ELUG LPPHGLDWHO\ EHFDPH LQYROYHG LQ DQ DJRQLVWLF HQFRXQWHU )LUVW H[DPLQHG GDWD RQ FDOOV XWWHUHG XSRQ DUULYDO ZKHQ RWKHU ELUGV ZHUH DOUHDG\ SUHVHQW 7KH ELUGV JDYH &KHU XSRQ DUULYDO LQ b RI FDVHV Q f 7KH\ UDUHO\ JDYH =ZHHW FDOOV b RI FDVHVf DQG LQ PDQ\ FDVHV JDYH QR FDOOV ZKDWVRHYHU b VLOHQW DUULYDOVf JDWKHUHG GDWD IRU PDUWLQV DUULYLQJ DW WKH KRXVH ZKHQ QR RWKHU ELUGV ZHUH SUHVHQW DQG REWDLQHG VLPLODU UHVXOWV WKH ELUGV JDYH &KHU LQ b RI FDVHV Q f $OVR WKH\ JDYH =ZHHW LQ RQO\ b RI FDVHV DQG KDG VLOHQW DUULYDOV LQ b RI FDVHV &RQYHUVHO\ PDUWLQV GHSDUWLQJ IURP WKH KRXVH HLWKHU JDYH =ZHHW FDOOV b RI FDVHV Q f RU JDYH QR FDOOV DW DOO b VLOHQW GHSDUWXUHVf ,Q WKH FRQWH[W RI IORFNLQJ WKLV FDOO VHHPHG WR DWWUDFW ELUGV WR HDFK RWKHU ,W IXQFWLRQHG VLPLODUO\ LQ SDLUHG ELUGV GXULQJ WKH EUHHGLQJ VHDVRQ &KHU FDOOV ZHUH DOVR JLYHQ VHYHUDO VHFRQGV DIWHU VXSSODQWLQJ D FRQVSHFLILF RU D ELUG RI DQRWKHU VSHFLHV REVHUYDWLRQV Q f 0RUHRYHU WKH FDOO ZDV XWWHUHG XSRQ WKH VXGGHQ DSSHDUDQFH RI DQRWKHU PDUWLQ REVHUYDn WLRQV Q f ,W PD\ EH JLYHQ ZLWK WKH =ZHHW FDOO )LJXUH (f ZKHQ WKH ODWWHU ZDV HOLFLWHG E\ D 6WDUOLQJ 6WXUQXV YXOJDULV REVHUYDWLRQV Q f +RXVH 6SDUURZ

PAGE 130

3DVVHU GRPHVWLFXV REVHUYDWLRQV Q f RU %OXH -D\ &\DQRFLWWD FULVWDWD REVHUYDWLRQV Q f =ZHHW FDOO 7KH =ZHHW FDOO )LJXUH %&f FRQVLVWHG RI D VLQJOH V\OODEOH RU RI D VHULHV RI V\OODEOHV DYHUDJLQJ s VHF Q f LQ GXUDWLRQ 7KH PHDQ GXUDWLRQ EHWZHHQ V\OODEOHV ZDV YDULDEOH [ s VHFf 7KHVH FDOOV FRQVLVWHG RI DQ DYHUDJH KLJK IUHTXHQF\ RI s N+] WR DQ DYHUDJH ORZ RI s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f ,W FRXOG DOVR EH FRQVLGHUHG DQ DODUP FDOO LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI DFFRPSDQ\LQJ PREELQJ EHKDYLRU Q REVHUYDn WLRQVf 0\ REVHUYDWLRQV DW WKH *DLQHVYLOOH &RXQWU\ &OXE

PAGE 131

PXOWLURRP KRXVH LQGLFDWHG WKDW WKH FDOO ZDV FKLHIO\ DVVRFLn DWHG ZLWK WKH SUHVHQFH RI SUHGDWRUV 2Q RFFDVLRQV VDZ 30 DVVXPH D +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW SRVWXUH DQG JLYH WKH =ZHHW FDOO ZKHQ IR[ VTXLUUHOV 6FLXUXV QLJHUf FDWV KXPDQ REVHUYHUV DQG GRJV ZHUH QHDUE\ 2Q RWKHU RFFDVLRQV DGXOW PDOHV XVHG D ORQJHU YHUVLRQ RI WKH =ZHHW FDOO )LJXUH 'f ZKHQ D VFUHHFK RZO 2WXV DVLRf DSSURDFKHG WKH PXOWLURRP KRXVH +HHKHH FDOO *LYHQ RQO\ E\ PDOHV WKH +HHKHH FDOO )LJXUH )f ZDV XWWHUHG DW D UDWH RI s FDOOV SHU VHFRQG Q f 7KH PHDQ GXUDWLRQ RI WKH FDOO ZDV VHF ZLWK WKH LQWHUV\OODEOH LQWHUYDO DYHUDJLQJ s VHF 7KH +HHKHH FDOO ZDV FRPSOH[ LQ VWUXFWXUH 7KH QRWHV RI WKH FDOO FRQVLVWHG RI D PXOWLWXGH RI ORQJ XSDQGGRZQ VOXUV 7KH FDOO VKRZHG D JUDGXDO GURS LQ IUHTXHQF\ IURP DQ DYHUDJH KLJK RI s N+] WR DQ DYHUDJH ORZ RI s N+] ZLWK VRPH KDUPRQLF RYHUWRQHV UHDFKLQJ N+] 7KH +HHKHH FDOO ZDV WKH WKLUG PRVW FRPPRQ YRFDOL]Dn WLRQ 7KH FDOO ZDV JLYHQ E\ D PDOH LQ HLWKHU D ORZ LQWHQVLW\ RU KLJKLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW RU LQ WKH $OHUW +LJK8S SRVWXUH ZKLOH RQ KLV WHUULWRU\ 7KH FDOO DSSHDUHG WR IXQFWLRQ DV DQ DVVHUWLRQ RI GRPLQDQFH DW D EUHHGLQJ VLWH DQG DV D PHDQV RI FODLPLQJ RZQHUVKLS RI D WHUULWRU\ $FWXDO RU SRWHQWLDO LQWUXGHUV HJ LQGLYLGXDOV IURP QHLJKERULQJ WHUULWRULHVf ZHUH DWWDFNHG LI WKH\ HQWHUHG RU UHPDLQHG LQ WKH YLFLQLW\ RI WKH FDOOLQJ PDOH $ SHUFKHG

PAGE 132

PDOH ZRXOG FRPELQH WKH +HHKHH FDOO ZLWK =ZHHW FDOOV DW WLPHV ,I DYRLGDQFH GLG QRW RFFXU KLJKLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW /XQJH RU ILJKWLQJ IROORZHG 7KLV FDOO ZDV DOVR GLUHFWHG E\ D EUHHGLQJ PDOH WRZDUG RWKHU IHPDOH PDUWLQV LI WKH\ FDPH QHDU WKH EUHHGLQJ FDYLW\ 2Q RFFDVLRQV PDOHV JDYH +HHKHH FDOOV ZKLOH DWWUDFWLQJ IHPDOHV ZLWK WKH &ODLP5HFODLPLQJ GLVSOD\ -RKQn VWRQ t +DUG\ f 7KH GLVSOD\ ZDV FKDUDFWHUL]HG E\ VWLIIO\ DUFKHG ZLQJEHDWV DOWHUQDWLQJ ZLWK SHULRGV RI JOLGLQJ RQ RXWVWUHWFKHG ZLQJV DQG LW RFFXUUHG DW KHLJKWV RI DERXW P WR P DERYH WKH JURXQG 7KH ELUG JDYH +HHKHH FDOOV ZKLOH LQ IOLJKW ,W ZRXOG WHUPLQDWH WKH GLVSOD\ E\ DQ HDUWKZDUG VZRRS LQWR WKH QHVW FDYLW\ 'XULQJ RI WKHVH REVHUYDWLRQV D IHPDOH IROORZHG WKH PDOH LQWR KLV QHVW FDYLW\ DV KH FRQWLQXHG JLYLQJ +HHKHH FDOOV &KRUWOH FDOO *LYHQ E\ ERWK VH[HV WKH &KRUWOH FDOO )LJXUH $%f ZDV JLYHQ DW WKH UDWH RI s V\OODEOHV SHU VHFRQG Q f 7KH PHDQ GXUDWLRQ RI LQGLYLGXDO V\OODEOHV ZDV s VHF ,QWHUYDOV EHWZHHQ WKH HQG RI RQH V\OODEOH DQG WKH EHJLQQLQJ RI WKH QH[W DYHUDJHG s VHF 7KH IUHTXHQF\ RI WKLV SRO\V\OODELF FDOO ZDV EHWZHHQ s N+] DQG s N+] &KRUWOH FDOOV ZHUH XVHG LQ EUHHGLQJUHODWHG VLWXDWLRQV DQG LQ DJRQLVWLF HQFRXQWHUV EHWZHHQ 30V 7KLV FDOO DSSHDUHG WR LQGLFDWH D KLJKHU OHYHU RI DURXVDO WKDQ WKH VLQJOH &KHU FDOO

PAGE 133

)LJXUH 6RQRJUDPV RI 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ YRFDOL]DWLRQV $ VHULHV RI &KRUWOH FDOOV IURP D IHPDOH % VHULHV RI &KRUWOH FDOOV IURP D PDOH & &KRUWOH VRQJ =ZUDFN FDOOV JLYHQ E\ GLIIHUHQW LQGLYLGXDOV ( 5DWWOH FDOO IURP RQH LQGLYLGXDO ) &KRR FDOOV IURP D IHPDOH

PAGE 134

7KH PDMRULW\ RI &KRUWOH FDOOV ZHUH JLYHQ LQ DVVRFLDWLRQ ZLWK PDWLQJ HDUO\ LQ WKH EUHHGLQJ VHDVRQ REVHUYDWLRQV Q f 0DOHV DQG IHPDOHV XVHG WKH YRFDOL]DWLRQ LQ WKHLU FDOOLQJ ZKHQ WKH\ EHJDQ WR EULQJ QHVWLQJ PDWHULDO WR WKH PXOWLURRP KRXVH 2Q RFFDVLRQV GXULQJ WKH QHVW EXLOGLQJ SHULRG WKH PDOH HQWHUHG WKH QHVWLQJ FRPSDUWPHQW ZKLOH WKH IHPDOH ZDV LQVLGH +H UHPDLQHG WKHUH VHYHUDO VHFRQGV GXULQJ ZKLFK &KRUWOH FDOOLQJ ZDV KHDUG &RSXODWLRQV PD\ KDYH RFFXUUHG DW WKLV WLPH VLQFH REVHUYHG VHYHQ FRSXODn WLRQV RQ WKH JURXQG ZLWK &KRUWOH FDOOV SUHFHGLQJ WKH PDWLQJ 7KH PDOH WKHQ OHIW ZKLOH WKH IHPDOH UHPDLQHG LQVLGH WKH QHVW KROH DQG FRQWLQXHG WR JLYH &KRUWOH FDOOV $ PDOH RIWHQ XVHG &KRUWOH FDOOV ZKLOH VLWWLQJ LQ IURQW RI D QHVW KROH ZKHQ D IHPDOH ZDV LQVLGH 7KH VHFRQG PRVW FRPPRQ XVH RI &KRUWOH FDOOV ZDV LQ GLUHFW DJJUHVVLYH HQFRXQWHUV EHWZHHQ PDOH PDUWLQV REVHUn YDWLRQV Q f 7KH FDOO ZDV JLYHQ E\ UHWUHDWLQJ PDOHV LQ WKH :LWKGUDZ +LJK8S RU ORZLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW SRVWXUH SRVVLEOH IRUHVWDOOLQJ DQ DJJUHVVLYH UHVSRQVH 1R FDVHV ZHUH REVHUYHG LQ ZKLFK PDOHV DWWDFNHG GXULQJ RU IROORZLQJ WKH XVH RI WKLV YRFDOL]DWLRQ Q f 7KH FDOO ZDV DOVR JLYHQ E\ ELUGV ZKR WKRXJK GHIHDWHG LQ DQ HQFRXQn WHU UHPDLQHG LQ WKH PXOWLURRP KRXVH DUHD UDWKHU WKDQ OHDYLQJ b RI REVHUYDWLRQV Q f 7KHVH VLJQDOHUV DOZD\V VKRZHG WKH :LWKGUDZ +LJK8S SRVLWLRQ ,I WKH VLJQDOHU GLG UHWUHDW LW RQO\ PRYHG D IHZ FHQWLPHWHUV QHYHU PDNLQJ DQ RXWULJKW GHSDUWXUH IURP WKH DUHD RI WKH HQFRXQWHU

PAGE 135

,Q WKH PRUH LQWHQVH LQWHUDFWLRQV HJ PDOHV FDOOLQJ ZKHQ D SRWHQWLDO LQWUXGHU ZDV QHDU WKH WHUULWRU\f PDQ\ =ZHHW DQG &KRUWOH FDOOV ZHUH VWUXQJ WRJHWKHU LQ DQ H[FLWHG VRXQGLQJ WZLWWHU ,Q P\ REVHUYDWLRQV RI 30V WKDW JDYH WKLV FDOO LQ FRQMXQFWLRQ ZLWK YLVXDO GLVSOD\V WKH QXPEHU RI V\OODEOHV LQ D FDOO DQG WKH UDWH DW ZKLFK WKHVH FDOOV ZHUH GHOLYHUHG ZHUH SRVLWLYHO\ UHODWHG WR LQWHQVLW\ RI WKH VLJQDOHUnV GLVSOD\LQJ =ZUDFN FDOO 7KH =ZUDFN FDOO )LJXUH 'f FRQVLVWHG RI D KDUVK EODVW RI QRLVH ZLWK D PHDQ GXUDWLRQ RI VHF Q f 7KH FDOO H[WHQGHG RYHU D ZLGH IUHTXHQF\ UDQJH ZLWK WKH JUHDWHVW DPRXQW RI HQHUJ\ EHWZHHQ s N+] DQG s N+] =ZUDFN FDOOV LQGLFDWHG KLJK LQWHQVLW\ DODUP EHFDXVH DQ LQWUXGHU KDG WR EH RQ WKH YHUJH RI HQWHULQJ D QHVW EHIRUH PDUWLQV ZRXOG DWWDFN DQG XVH WKLV YRFDOL]DWLRQ 7KH FDOO VHUYHG ERWK WR DWWUDFW RWKHU PDUWLQV WR D SUHGDWRU VR WKDW JURXS DFWLRQ FRXOG GULYH LW DZD\ DQG DV D PHDQV RI KDUDVVn LQJ RU GLVWUDFWLQJ WKH SUHGDWRU LQ D PDQQHU DQDORJRXV WR WKH GLYLQJ DWWDFNV FRPPRQO\ SHUIRUPHG E\ PREEHUV &XULR f 0DOH 30 PREEHG FDWV GRJV VTXLUUHOV KXPDQ REVHUYHUV DQG RWKHU SRWHQWLDO SUHGDWRUV E\ UHSHDWHGO\ VZRRSLQJ WRZDUG WKHP IURP DERYH EHKLQG RU WKH VLGH 0REELQJ IOLJKWV ZHUH 8VKDSHG DUFV EHJLQQLQJ DERXW P DERYH WKH WDUJHW 7KH 30 PDOH HPLWWHG RQH =ZUDFN FDOO HDFK WLPH LW UHDFKHG WKH QDGLU RI DQ DUF MXVW DERYH LWV WDUJHW WKH FDOO ZDV QRW JLYHQ GXULQJ RWKHU SRUWLRQV RI WKH DUF 3UHGDWRUV DSSHDUHG WR EH

PAGE 136

GLVWUDFWHG E\ WKH FDOO 7KH\ XVXDOO\ FURXFKHG DV WKH 30 FORVHG LQ DQG WKH\ VHOGRP UHPDLQHG LQ RQH SODFH RQFH PREELQJ FRPPHQFHG 7KH =ZUDFN FDOO ZDV DOVR XVHG ZLWK WKH KLJKLQWHQVLW\ +HDG)RUZDUG 7KUXVW DQG /XQJH SRVWXUHV GXULQJ DJRQLVWLF LQWHUDFWLRQV ZLWK PDOH FRQVSHFLILFV DQG RWKHU ELUG VSHFLHV Q f 7KH FDOO ZDV HPLWWHG DV WKH WHUULWRU\ KROGHU DQG LQWUXGHU ZHUH HLWKHU VWDWLRQDU\ RU PRYLQJ D VKRUW GLVWDQFH RQ WKH PXOWLURRP KRXVH =ZUDFN FDOOV ZHUH VLPLODU WR WKH PREELQJ FDOOV RI RWKHU ELUG VSHFLHV ZKRVH FDOOV KDYH D KDUVK TXDOLW\ FKDUDFWHUL]HG E\ ZLGH IUHTXHQF\VSHFWUD VKDUS RQVHW DQG WHUPLQDWLRQ DQG UDSLG UHSHWLWLRQ 0DUOHU D f 7KHVH DFRXVWLF FKDUDFWHULVWLFV HQKDQFH WKH DELOLW\ RI SRWHQWLDO PREEHUV WR ORFDWH WKH VRXUFH RI WKH VRXQG .RQLVKL 6KDWWHU f &KRS FDOO 7KH &KRR FDOO )LJXUH )f FRQVLVWHG RI D VHULHV RI V\OODEOHV UHSHDWHG DW YDU\LQJ LQWHUYDOV 7KH LQGLYLGXDO V\OODEOHV DYHUDJHG s VHF Q f LQ GXUDWLRQ 7KH DYHUDJH EHWZHHQQRWH GXUDWLRQ ZDV IURP WR RU PRUH VHF ,WV IUHTXHQF\ UDQJH ZDV s N+] WR N+] &KRR FDOOV ZHUH JLYHQ E\ IHPDOHV GXULQJ WKH EUHHGLQJ VHDVRQ 0\ GDWD FRQFXUUHG ZLWK WKDW RI %URZQ f ZKHQHYHU \RXQJ ELUGV EHFDPH VFDWWHUHG WKH &KRR FDOO UHDVVHPEOHG WKH JURXS UHFRUGHG IHPDOHV UHWXUQLQJ WR WKH KRXVH OHDGLQJ \RXQJ 30 ZLWK &KRR

PAGE 137

FDOOV RQ RFFDVLRQV 7KH PDOH ZDV QRW REVHUYHG XVLQJ WKLV FDOO LQ %URZQnV f RU P\ VWXG\ 5DWWOH FDOO 7KH 5DWWOH FDOO )LJXUH (f ZDV D VKRUW UHJXODU EXUVW RI KDUVK QRWHV 7KH QXPEHU RI QRWHV LQ D 5DWWOH FDOO YDULHG IURP WR [ s Q f (DFK QRWH DYHUDJHG s VHF LQ GXUDWLRQ 7KH LQWHUQWH OHQJWK YDULHG IURP WR VHF Q f 7KH OHQJWK RI WKH FDOO YDULHG IURP WR VHF [ s VHFf DQG PRVW RI WKH HQHUJ\ ZDV LQ WKH UDQJH RI WR N+] 7KH 5DWWOH FDOO ZDV KHDUG EHWZHHQ PDWHV ZKHQ WKH\ ZHUH VWDWLRQDU\ ,W ZDV JLYHQ E\ ELUGV RI HLWKHU VH[ ZKHQ RQH LQGLYLGXDO DSSURDFKHG WKH RWKHU WRR FORVHO\ 7KH VLJQDOHU WKHQ WXUQHG DQG *DSHG ZKLOH XWWHULQJ WKH FDOO 7KH PRVW FRPPRQ UHVSRQVH LQYROYHG D UHWUHDW RI WKH DSSURDFKLQJ ELUG DOWKRXJK VRPH LQGLYLGXDOV ZRXOG UHWXUQ WKH *DSH DQG 5DWWOH FDOO EHIRUH UHWUHDWLQJ %URZQ f PDGH QR PHQWLRQ RI WKLV FDOO LQ KLV VWXG\ LQ 7H[DV RU $UL]RQD 3ULPDU\ 6RQJ 7KH SULPDU\ VRQJ )LJXUH $f FRQVLVWHG RI D VHULHV RI HLJKW WR GLVWLQFW V\OODEOHV [ s Q f IROORZHG E\ IRXU WR HLJKW JUDWLQJ QRWHV DW WKH HQG RI WKH VRQJ [ s f 0RVW V\OODEOHV VZHSW GRZQZDUG LQ IUHTXHQF\ ZLWK D FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI HQHUJ\ EHWZHHQ s DQG s N+] 7KH KLJKHVWSLWFKHG V\OODEOHV VWDUWHG DW DERXW N+] DQG VRPH V\OODEOHV IHOO DV ORZ DV N+] 7KH VRQJ UDQJHG LQ GXUDWLRQ IURP WR VHF LQ GLIIHUHQW ELUGV 7KH VRQJ ZDV XVXDOO\ UHSHDWHG IURP WZR WR IRXU WLPHV [ s Q f

PAGE 138

K+O U L L B/ 7,0 ,1 6&2+'6 ( ? A aUa Af U 7,0( ,1 6(&2126 c f§nf§L nf,f§A 1 A r r r r}fr }}$m 7A7r ? fbmr}r} 7,0W ,1 6(&21'6 )LJXUH 6RQRJUDPV RI 3XUSOH DQG *UD\EUHDVWHG 0DUWLQ YRFDOL]DWLRQV $ 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ 3ULPDU\ VRQJ % LQFRPSOHWH 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ 3ULPDU\ VRQJ & *UD\EUHDVWHG 0DUWLQ &UHH FDOOV *UD\n EUHDVWHG 0DUWLQ =ZDW FDOOV ( *UD\EUHDVWHG 0DUWLQ &OXFN FDOOV ) *UD\EUHDVWHG 0DUWLQ .UDFN FDOOV

PAGE 139

$Q LQFRPSOHWH YHUVLRQ RI WKH SULPDU\ VRQJ GHILQHG DV VRQJV RI OHVV WKDQ HLJKW V\OODEOHVf ZDV PRVW IUHTXHQWO\ JLYHQ E\ SHUFKHG PDOHV GXULQJ HQFRXQWHUV ZLWK FRQVSHFLILFV [ V\OODEOHV Q f ,QFRPSOHWH VRQJV ZHUH D UHJXODU IHDWXUH RI WHUULWRULDO HQFRXQWHUV EHWZHHQ PDOHV ,Q FDVHV WKH SULPDU\ VRQJ RI RQH LQGLYLGXDO UHFRUGn HG RQ GLIIHUHQW GDWHV FRXOG EH PDWFKHG V\OODEOH E\ V\OODEOH WKURXJKRXW LWV HQWLUH OHQJWK LQGLFDWLQJ WKDW WKHUH ZDV VWHUHRW\S\ LQ WKH IRUP RI WKH VRQJ IRXQG VLPLODU UHVXOWV IRU ILYH RWKHU 30 PDOHVf +RZHYHU RWKHU H[DPSOHV RI WKH SULPDU\ VRQJ RI WKH VDPH PDOH VKRZHG GLIIHUHQFHV LQ WKH LQWURGXFWRU\ SRUWLRQ LQFOXGLQJ YDULDWLRQ LQ WKH RUGHULQJ RI WKH V\OODEOHV UHSHWLWLRQ RI VRPH V\OODEOHV RU LQFOXVLRQ RI D VHFRQG VHULHV RI V\OODEOHV IURP SULPDU\ VRQJ 'XULQJ ERXWV RI VLQJLQJ 30 VDQJ DW D UDWH RI WZR WR IRXU VRQJV SHU PLQ 7DEOH f 6HYHUDO IHDWXUHV RI WKH H[WHUQDO VLWXDWLRQ LQIOXHQFHG WKH VRQJ UDWH :KHQ QR YLVLEOH GLVWXUEDQFHV ZHUH HYLGHQW ERXWV RI VLQJLQJ ZHUH DW D VORZ UDWH &RXQWHUVLQJLQJ ZLWK DQRWKHU PDOH GXULQJ WHUULWRULDO HQFRXQWHUV LQFUHDVHG WKH VRQJ UDWH 7DEOH f 7KH KLJKHVW UDWH UHFRUGHG VRQJV SHU PLQXWH RFFXUUHG LQ VXFK D WHUULWRULDO HQFRXQWHU 2QH YDULDWLRQ RI WKH LQFRPSOHWH SULPDU\ VRQJ ZDV D GDZQ IOLJKW VRQJ KHDUG HDUO\ LQ WKH EUHHGLQJ VHDVRQ $ PDOH LQLWLDOO\ SHUFKHG RQ D PXOWLURRP KRXVH DQG JDYH D VHULHV RI &KHU FDOOV 7KH UDWH RI GHOLYHU\ RI WKHVH FDOOV DFFHOHUDWHG

PAGE 140

7DEOH 6RQJ 5DWHV RI 0DOH 3XUSOH 0DUWLQV 'XULQJ 'LIIHUHQW ([WHUQDO 6LWXDWLRQV 6LWXDWLRQ 0HDQ 6RQJ 5DWHr VRQJVPLQf 5DQJH VRQJVPLQf 1R 2EVHUYDWLRQV 6LQJLQJ ZLWK QR GLVWXUEDQFH s 6LQJLQJ GXULQJ PDOH HQFRXQWHU 6LQJLQJ GXULQJ GDZQ IOLJKW s r6RQJ UDWHV GLIIHU VLJQLILFDQWO\ EHWZHHQ VLWXDWLRQV 6WXGHQW1HZPDQ.HXOV PXOWLSOH UDQJH WHVW S f

PAGE 141

XQWLO WKH ELUG WRRN IOLJKW DQG FOLPEHG WR WR P DERYH WKH KRXVH 7KH IOLJKW DSSHDUHG ODERUHG DQG WKH ELUG VRPHWLPHV FLUFOHG DV LW VDQJ $W WKH HQG RI GDZQ VLQJLQJ [ s VRQJV SHU PLQ Q VHSDUDWH PRUQLQJVf WKH ELUG ZRXOG UHWXUQ WR WKH PXOWLURRP KRXVH &KRUWOH VRQJV 7KLV IHPDOH VRQJ )LJXUH &f FRQVLVWHG RI D VHULHV RI HLJKW WR V\OODEOHV JLYHQ DW DQ DYHUDJH UDWH RI s V\OODEOHV SHU VHF Q f 7KH LQGLYLGXDO V\OODEOHV DYHUDJHG s VHF LQ GXUDWLRQ DQG WKH LQWHUV\OODEOH LQWHUYDO DYHUDJHG s VHF LQ GXUDWLRQ &KRUWOH VRQJV ZHUH JLYHQ DW IUHTXHQFLHV EHWZHHQ s DQG N+] 7KH &KRUWOH VRQJ ZDV XVHG DOPRVW H[FOXVLYHO\ GXULQJ WKH SUHLQFXEDWLRQ SHULRG %HFDXVH WKH IHPDOHnV &KRUWOH VRQJ DWWUDFWHG PDOHV LW PD\ KDYH HQFRGHG D PHVVDJH VSHFLI\LQJ WKH IHPDOHnV UHDGLQHVV WR DVVRFLDWH ZLWK WKH PDOH $OO UHFRUGV RI &KRUWOH VRQJV ZHUH REWDLQHG IURP IHPDOHV PRYLQJ LQ FORVH DVVRFLDWLRQ ZLWK RU UHVSRQGLQJ WR WKH DFWLRQV RI PDWHV 7KLV YRFDOL]DWLRQ LV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK GHFUHDVLQJ WKH GLVWDQFH EHWZHHQ PHPEHUV RI D SDLU DQG SUHSDULQJ WKH ZD\ IRU FRSXODWLRQ ZLWQHVVHG WKUHH FRSXODWLRQV ZKHUH WKH IHPDOH &KRUWOH VRQJ SUHFHGHG WKH PDWLQJ *UD\%UHDVWHG 0DUWLQ &KHXU FDOO 7KH &KHXU FDOO )LJXUH %f ZDV JLYHQ HLWKHU VLQJO\ RU LQ JURXSV RI WZR RU WKUHH V\OODEOHV [ s Q f VSDFHG RYHU D SHULRG RI WR

PAGE 142

7,0( ,1 6(&21'6 )LJXUH 6RQRJUDPV RI *UD\EUHDVWHG DQG &DULEEHDQ 0DUWLQ YRFDLOL]DWLRQV $ VHULHV RI *UD\EUHDVWHG 0DUWLQ =XUU FDOOV % VHULHV RI *UD\EUHDVWHG 0DUWLQ &KHXU FDOOV & *UD\EUHDVWHG 0DUWLQ 3ULPDU\ VRQJ *UD\EUHDVWHG 0DUWLQ 5DWWOH FDOO ( &DULEEHDQ 0DUWLQ 3HDN FDOOV ) &DULEEHDQ 0DUWLQ =ZRRW FDOO &DULEEHDQ 0DUWLQ &URRW FDOO

PAGE 143

VHF 7KH GXUDWLRQ RI LQGLYLGXDO V\OODEOHV DYHUDJHG s VHF 7KH LQWHUV\OODEOH GXUDWLRQ ZDV s VHF 7KH IUHTXHQF\ UDQJH ZDV EHWZHHQ s N+] DQG s N+] 7KLV FDOO ZDV VLPLODU LQ FRQWH[WXDO XVXDJH WR WKH 30 &KHU FDOO 7KH &KHXU FDOO ZDV XVHG LQ D ZLGH YDULHW\ RI VLWXDWLRQV DQG VHHPHG WR LQGLFDWH D PRGHUDWH VWDWH RI DURXVDO 1R ULWXDOL]HG YLVLEOH GLVSOD\ RWKHU WKDQ $OHUW +LJK8S ZDV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKLV YRFDOL]DWLRQ 7KH &KHXU FDOO ZDV XVHG ZKLOH WKH ELUG ZDV LQ IOLJKW DV D VLQJOH FDOO REVHUYDn WLRQV Q f RU LQ D VHULHV REVHUYDWLRQV Q f 2I WKH UHPDLQGHU ZHUH JLYHQ DV WKH ELUG DOLJKWHG DQG ZKLOH D ELUG ZDV RQ LWV SHUFK Q f 7KLV FDOO ZDV JLYHQ E\ ERWK VH[HV WKURXJKRXW WKH EUHHGLQJ VHDVRQ 7KH &KHXU FDOO ZDV D ORFDWLQJ YRFDOL]DWLRQ JLYHQ E\ PHPEHUV RI IORFN RU SDLU ZKHQ VHSDUDWHG ,Q WKH ODWWHU FDVH LW ZDV JLYHQ E\ SDLUHG ELUGV WKDW KDG PRYHG DSDUW ZKLOH IRUDJLQJ RU E\ D PDOH FDOOLQJ D IHPDOH DZD\ IURP WKH QHVW FDYLW\ 2Q RFFDVLRQV WKH &KHXU FDOO ZDV JLYHQ E\ WKH PDOH RI D SDLU DUULYLQJ DW WKH QHVW VLWH ZKLOH WKH IHPDOH ZDV LQFXEDWLQJ RU EURRGLQJ 7KH IHPDOH UHVSRQGHG E\ FRPLQJ WR WKH HQWUDQFH RI WKH KROH REVHUYDWLRQV Q f DQG RQ RFFDVLRQV E\ IO\LQJ RXW $ IHPDOH OHDYLQJ WKH QHVW DIWHU KHDULQJ WKH &KHXU FDOO RIWHQ JDYH WKH =ZDW FDOO b RI REVHUYDWLRQV Q f 2Q RFFDVLRQV WKH IHPDOH GLG QRW UHVSRQG DQG WKH PDOH HQWHUHG WKH QHVW EXW QRW ZLWKRXW

PAGE 144

UHSHDWHG =ZDW FDOOV IURP WKH PDOH 7KH PDOH IOHZ RII ZKHQ WKH IHPDOH GLG QRW HPHUJH RQ RI RFFDVLRQV &UHH FDOO 7KH &UHH FDOO )LJXUH &f ZDV D VWDFFDWR VHULHV RI VLQJOH V\OODEOHV DYHUDJLQJ s VHF LQ GXUDWLRQ Q f 7KH LQWHUV\OODEOH GXUDWLRQ ZDV s VHF 7KHVH FDOOV GRZQVOXUUHG IURP DQ DYHUDJH KLJK IUHTXHQF\ RI s N+] WR DQ DYHUDJH ORZ IUHTXHQF\ RI s N+] 7KH &UHH FDOO ZDV JLYHQ E\ ELUGV VKRZLQJ VLJQV RI UHWUHDW EHKDYLRU *0 ZRXOG ZLQJ DQG WDLO IOLFN SLYRW RQ WKH SHUFK DQG WKHQ VKRZ :LWKGUDZ +LJK8S 7KH FDOO DQG DFFRPSDQ\LQJ GLVSOD\ DSSHDUHG WR FRQYH\ D SDVVLYH RU QRQ DJJUHVVLYH VWDWH WR WKH UHFHLYHU )HDWXUHV RI WKH VLWXDWLRQ WKDW DSSHDUHG WR FDXVH RU FRQWULEXWH WR WKH UHWUHDW LQFOXGHG f D FXUUHQW RU UHFHQW GLVSXWH LQ WKH DUHD f WKH IDFW WKDW WKH VLJQDOHU ZDV WKH LQWUXGHU f WKH SUHVHQFH RI D KLJKHU UDQNLQJ PDOH DQG f WKH SUHVHQFH RI RWKHU ELUG VSHFLHV &UHH FDOOV ZHUH DOVR JLYHQ RQ RU MXVW DIWHU DOLJKWLQJ 0RUHRYHU WKH\ ZHUH JLYHQ ZKLOH WKH VLJQDOHU ZDV RQ LWV SHUFK DQG UDUHO\ LQ IOLJKW 7KH &UHH FDOO ZDV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK FRSXODWLRQ RQ VHYHQ RFFDVLRQV ,Q WKH FRSXODWRU\ VHTXHQFH WKH IHPDOH ILUVW XWWHUHG WKH &UHH FDOO 7KH PDOH WKHQ DSSURDFKHG ZLWKLQ D IHZ FHQWLPHWHUV JLYLQJ D &KHXU FDOO ZKLOH WKH IHPDOH FRQWLQXHG WR JLYH WKH &UHH FDOO DQG WKHQ ZLQJ TXLYHU 7KH PDOH WKHQ PRXQWHG ,W ZDV XQOLNHO\ WKDW WKH &UHH FDOOnV PHVVDJH ZDV RQO\ D VH[XDO RQH DV WKH FDOO RFFXUUHG LQ RWKHU

PAGE 145

FRQWH[WV +RZHYHU LW VHHPHG WR EH DQ LPSRUWDQW ZD\ IRU IHPDOHV WR DWWUDFW PDOH DQG IRU VLJQDOLQJ UHDGLQHVV WR HQJDJH LQ VH[XDO DFWLYLW\ =ZDW FDOO 7KH =ZDW FDOO )LJXUH 'f ZDV GHOLYHUHG HLWKHU VLQJO\ RU LQ JURXSV RI WZR RU WKUHH V\OODEOHV [ Q f LUUHJXODUO\ VSDFHG RYHU D SHULRG RI WR VHF 7KH GXUDWLRQ RI LQGLYLGXDO V\OODEOHV DYHUDJHG s VHF 7KH IUHTXHQF\ UDQJH ZDV EHWZHHQ s N+] DQG s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f FRQVLVWHG RI D VHULHV RI V\OODEOHV UHSHDWHG DW YDU\LQJ LQWHUYDOV 7KH LQGLYLGXDO V\OODEOHV DYHUDJHG s VHF Q f LQ GXUDWLRQ 7KH DYHUDJH EHWZHHQQRWH GXUDWLRQ ZDV IURP WR VHFRQGV ,WV IUHTXHQF\ UDQJH ZDV N+] WR s N+] %RWK VH[HV JDYH WKH FDOO WKURXJKRXW WKH VWXG\ SHULRG

PAGE 146

$Q\ DODUPLQJ HYHQW VXFK DV WKH SUHVHQFH RI D FDW DW WKH 3XPSKRXVH HOLFLWHG WKLV FDOO :KHQ JLYHQ DOO ELUGV OHIW WKHLU QHVWV IOHZ DURXQG WKH DUHD DQG FRQWLQXHG WR JLYH WKH =XUU FDOO XQWLO WKH GLVWXUEDQFH FHDVHG :KHQ \RXQJ ZHUH LQ WKH QHVW D GHILQLWH FKDQJH RI WKH YRFDOL]DWLRQ ZDV QRWHG 7KH GLVWDQFH RI WKH SUHGDWRU IURP WKH QHVW VLWH GHWHUPLQHG LWV FKDUDFWHULVWLFV $ =XUU FDOO ZDV JLYHQ ZKHQ WKH ELUGV ILUVW EHFDPH DZDUH RI WKH DSSURDFK RI D FDW RU KXPDQ REVHUYHU XVXDOO\ DW DERXW P $V WKH SRWHQWLDO SUHGDWRU DSSURDFKHG WR ZLWKLQ P WKH =XUU FDOO VKLIWHG WR WKH =ZDW RU .UDFN FDOO )LJKWLQJ PDOHV JDYH =XUU FDOOV ZKLOH XVLQJ WKH +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW GLVSOD\V DQG /XQJH :KHQ ILJKWLQJ RQH ELUG ZRXOG JULS WKH RWKHU DQG KROG KLP GRZQ RQ WKH SLSHV ZKLOH ERWK ELUGV JDYH =XUU FDOOV 2Q RFFDVLRQV WZR ELUGV IHOO LQ WKH ZDWHU ORFNHG WRJHWKHU UHPDLQHG VXEPHUJHG IRU VHYHUDO VHFRQGV DQG WKHQ IOHZ RXW LQ D SURORQJHG FKDVH GXULQJ ZKLFK PRUH =XUU FDOOV ZHUH JLYHQ 0RUHRYHU =XUUV ZHUH FKDUDFWHUn LVWLF RI DHULDO ILJKWV 7ZR RSSRVLQJ PDOHV ZRXOG ULVH LQ WKH DLU WKH\ ZRXOG FODZ DW HDFK RWKHU RU SXOO DW HDFK RWKHUnV EUHDVW ZLWK WKHLU EHDNV ZKLOH JLYLQJ =XUU FDOOV .UDFN FDOO 7KH .UDFN FDOO )LJXUH )f ZDV D PRQRn V\OODELF VXGGHQ EXUVW RI ORZSLWFKHG KDUVK VRXQG *UDSKLn FDOO\ LW ZDV D QRQVWUXFWXUHG WRZHU RI ZKLWH QRLVH ZLWK D EDVHOLQH IUHTXHQF\ RI N+] DQG ZLWK WUDFLQJV RIWHQ FRQWLQXRXV WR N+] Q f 7KH PHDQ GXUDWLRQ RI WKH FDOO

PAGE 147

ZDV VHF ZLWK VKDUS EHJLQQLQJV DQG HQGLQJV :LWK WKH H[FHSWLRQ RI RQH FDOO IURP D IHPDOH .UDFN FDOOV ZHUH KHDUG RQO\ IURP PDOHV 7KH .UDFN FDOO ZDV KHDUG LQ VLWXDWLRQV WKDW SRVHG VRPH HOHPHQW RI WKUHDW WR WKH ELUG 7KLV FDOO ZDV DOZD\V IROORZHG E\ VRPH W\SH RI DJJUHVVLYH EHKDYLRU RQ WKH SDUW RI WKH VLJQDOHU YDU\LQJ IURP KLJKLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW WR IO\LQJ DW WKH UHFHLYHU UHFRUGHG WKH FDOO RQ ILYH RFFDVLRQV ZKHQ D FDW ZDV VLJKWHG ZKHQ DQRWKHU *0 FDPH ZLWKLQ WKH VLJQDOHUnV WHUULWRU\ DQG WZR ZKHQ DSSURDFKHG WKH QHVW FDYLW\ &OXFN FDOO 7KH &OXFN FDOO )LJXUH (f FRQVLVWHG RI D VHULHV RI VLQJOH V\OODEOHV WKDW ZHUH YDULDEOH LQ DOO WHPSRUDO FRPSRQHQWV 7KH GXUDWLRQ RI LQGLYLGXDO V\OODEOHV DYHUDJHG s VHF Q f 7KH FDOOnV HQHUJ\ ZDV EHWZHHQ s N+] DQG s N+] 7KH &OXFN FDOO ZDV JLYHQ GXULQJ WKH HDUO\ SHULRG RI SDLULQJ LQ D ODUJH QXPEHU RI FRQWH[WV ,W ZDV HOLFLWHG E\ DQ\ GLVWXUEDQFH DQG LW IUHTXHQWO\ HOLFLWHG D VLPLODU FDOO IURP RWKHU *0 SUHVHQW )RU H[DPSOH D WHUULWRULDO RZQHU FDOOHG ZKHQHYHU DQRWKHU PDOH *0 SDVVHG WKURXJK KLV EUHHGLQJ DUHD &OXFN FDOOV ZHUH DFFRPSDQLHG E\ ORZ DQG KLJK LQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW GLVSOD\V ERWK RI ZKLFK VHUYHG WR PRYH FRQVSHFLILFV DZD\ DW D EUHHGLQJ RU ORDILQJ VLWH 3ULPDU\ VRQJ 7KH SULPDU\ VRQJ )LJXUH &f FRQVLVWHG RI D VHULHV RI HLJKW WR FRQWLQXRXV ZDUEOLQJ SRO\V\OODELF VRXQGV [ s V\OODEOHV Q f 7KRXJK KDUPRQLF

PAGE 148

VHSDUDWLRQ ZDV DSSDUHQW ZLWKLQ VRPH RI WKH V\OODEOHV KDUPRQLFV ZHUH QRW SURQRXQFHG 0RVW V\OODEOHV VZHSW UDSLGO\ GRZQZDUG LQ IUHTXHQF\ ZLWK D FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI HQHUJ\ EHWZHHQ s N+] DQG s N+] 7KH VRQJV UDQJHG LQ GXUDWLRQ IURP WR VHF s VHFf $ GDZQ IOLJKW VRQJ ZDV KHDUG LQIUHTXHQWO\ RXW RI VRQJVf DQG ZDV DEOH WR UHFRUG WKH VRQJ RQ RQO\ VL[ RFFDVLRQV 7KH PDOH LQLWLDOO\ SHUFKHG RQ D SLSH DW WKH 3XPSKRXVH DQG JDYH D VHULHV RI &KHXU FDOOV ZKLOH SHUFKHG 7KH PDOH WKHQ IOHZ LQ D ZLGH FLUFOH DERYH WKH MHWW\ ZKLOH GHOLYHULQJ D VHULHV RI VRQJV [ VRQJV SHU VHVVLRQ Q VHVVLRQVf 7KH ELUG UHWXUQHG WR WKH QHVW DUHD LPPHGLn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

PAGE 149

5DWWOH 7KH 5DWWOH FDOO )LJXUH 'f FRQVLVWHG RI D VHULHV RI VHYHQ WR YHU\ VKRUW QRWHV LQ UDSLG VXFFHVVLRQ [ s Q f (DFK QRWH DYHUDJHG s VHF LQ GXUDWLRQ 7KH LQWHUQWH OHQJWK YDULHG IURP WR VHF 7KH OHQJWK RI WKH FDOO YDULHG IURP WR VHF [ s f 7KH IUHTXHQF\ UDQJH ZDV EHWZHHQ s WR s N+] Q f /LNH WKH 30 WKH *0 XVHG WKLV FDOO ZLWK WKH *DSH GLVSOD\ &DULEEHDQ 0DUWLQ =ZRRW FDOO 7KH =ZRRW FDOO )LJXUH )f ZDV GHOLYHUHG HLWKHU VLQJO\ RU LQ JURXSV RI WZR RU PRUH V\OODEOHV [ s Q f LUUHJXODUO\ VSDFHG RYHU D SHULRG RI WR VHF 7KH GXUDWLRQ RI LQGLYLGXDO V\OODEOHV DYHUDJHG s VHF 7KH FDOOnV HQHUJ\ ZDV FRQFHQn WUDWHG EHWZHHQ s N+] DQG s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

PAGE 150

RIWHQ UHVXOWHG LQ UHODWLYH FKDQJHV RI SRVLWLRQ RI ELUGV DV WKH\ VRXJKW WR REWDLQ PRUH DGYDQWDJHRXV YLHZLQJ SRVLWLRQV RQ D SDOP IURQG 7KH =ZRRW FDOO ZDV KHDUG RQ RFFDVLRQV IURP DQ DGXOW OHDYLQJ WKH QHVW KROH DIWHU IHHGLQJ WKH \RXQJ XSRQ ILQGLQJ WKH HQWUDQFH EORFNHG E\ LWV PDWH 7KH ELUG HLWKHU VH[f LQ WKH SURFHVV RI HQWHULQJ ZRXOG EDFN RXW DQG DOORZ WKH RWKHU WR H[LW DV VRRQ DV WKH FDOO ZDV JLYHQ :KHHW FDOO 7KH :KHHW FDOO )LJXUH &f ZDV D GRXEOH V\OODEOH JLYHQ DW D UDWH RI s FDOOV SHU VHF Q f 7KH PHDQ GXUDWLRQ RI WKH FDOO ZDV s VHF ZLWK WKH LQWHUQWH LQWHUYDO DYHUDJLQJ s VHF 7KH FDOO VKRZHG D GURS LQ IUHTXHQF\ IURP DQ DYHUDJH KLJK RI s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f ZDV FRPSOH[ LQ VWUXFWXUH ZLWK KDUPRQLF EDQGV IURP WR N+] Q f DQG

PAGE 151

N +L N+O ( 7,0( ,1 6(&21'6 )LJXUH 6RQRJUDPV RI &DULEEHDQ 0DUWLQ YRFDOL]DWLRQV $ 3ULPDU\ VRQJ % LQFRPSOHWH 3ULPDU\ VRQJ & VHULHV RI :KHHW FDOOV VHULHV RI .ZHHW FDOOV IURP RQH LQGLYLGXDO ( :UDFN FDOO

PAGE 152

ZLWK D GRZQZDUG VOXU DW WKH HQG 7KH LQGLYLGXDO V\OODEOHV DYHUDJHG s VHF LQ GXUDWLRQ 6RQRJUDPV VKRZHG WKDW WKH HQHUJ\ ZDV FRQFHQWUDWHG LQ WZR IUHTXHQF\ UDQJHV D ORZ IUHTXHQF\ FRPSRQHQW DURXQG s N+] ZLWK DQ H[DFWO\ FRLQFLGLQJ KLJK IUHTXHQF\ FRPSRQHQW DERXW s N+] 7KH &URRW FDOO ZDV JLYHQ GXULQJ UHWUHDW EHKDYLRU LQ WKH :LWKGUDZ +LJK8S SRVLWLRQ 7KH FDOO ZDV DOVR QRWHG WR RFFXU LQ FRQMXQFWLRQ ZLWK RWKHU EHKDYLRU SDWWHUQV LQFOXGLQJ ZLQJ DQG WDLO IOLFNLQJ ELOOZLSLQJ SLYRWLQJ RQ WKH SHUFK DQG PRYLQJ DZD\ 7KH VLJQDOHU DFWXDOO\ GLG OHDYH WKH DUHD RQ RFFDVLRQV Q f )HDWXUHV RI WKH VLWXDWLRQ ZKLFK FDXVHG RU FRQWULEXWHG WR UHWUHDW LQFOXGHG WKH SUHVHQFH RI f DQRWKHU PDOH f DQRWKHU ELUG VSHFLHV f KXPDQ REVHUYHUV RU f SUHGDWRUV LQ WKH DUHD 7KH &URRW FDOO ZDV DOVR XVHG LQ PDOHIHPDOH LQWHUn DFWLRQV ,Q RI VXFK FDVHV LW ZDV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK PRYHPHQW WRZDUG WKH IHPDOH WKH UHPDLQLQJ FDVHV LQYROYHG LWV XVH LQ FORVH SUR[LPLW\ WR WKH IHPDOH KHDUG WKH FDOO SUHFHGLQJ FRSXODWLRQ RQ RQO\ RQH RFFDVLRQ 3HDN FDOO 7KH 3HDN FDOO )LJXUH (f ZDV D VKDUS KLJKSLWFKHG V\OODEOH FKDUDFWHUL]HG E\ D UDSLG VOXUULQJ RI WKH IUHTXHQF\ XSZDUG D ERZHG IUHTXHQF\ EDQG LQ WKH PLGGOH RI WKH FDOO DQG D UDSLG VOXUULQJ RI WKH IUHTXHQF\ GRZQZDUG 7KH FDOO ZDV s VHF Q f LQ OHQJWK DQG WKH IUHTXHQF\ RI JUHDWHVW LQWHQVLW\ UDQJHG IURP s WR s N+]

PAGE 153

7KH 3HDN FDOO ZDV JLYHQ E\ ERWK VH[HV DQG ZDV XVHG WR LQGLFDWH ORZ LQWHQVLW\ DODUP RU DJLWDWLRQ 7KH FDOO ZDV JLYHQ ZKHQ D KXPDQ REVHUYHU RU GRJ DSSURDFKHG WKH QHVW WUHH Q f &0 WKHQ IOHZ DURXQG WKH SRWHQWLDO SUHGDWRU DQG JDYH WKH FDOO LQWHUPLWWHQWO\ ,I UHPDLQHG VWLOO DQG TXLHW WKH ELUGV ZRXOG UHWXUQ WR WKH QHVW WUHH DQG FHDVH JLYLQJ WKHVH 3HDN FDOOV DIWHU D IHZ PLQXWHV .ZHHW FDOO 7KH .ZHHW FDOO )LJXUH 'f FRQVLVWHG RI VLQJOH V\OODEOHV DYHUDJLQJ s VHF Q f LQ GXUDn WLRQ 7KH LQWHUV\OODEOH GXUDWLRQ ZDV VHF 7KH IUHTXHQF\ RI WKLV FDOO ZDV EHWZHHQ s N+] DQG s N+] 7KH .ZHHW FDOO GLIIHUHG LQ IUHTXHQF\ FRPSRVLWLRQ ZLWK VRPH FDOOV KDYLQJ YDULRXV W\SHV RI KDUPRQLF FRPSRVLWLRQ DQG RWKHU V\OODEOHV KDYLQJ QR KDUPRQLF VWUXFn WXUH 7KLV ZDV WKH VHFRQG PRVW IUHTXHQWO\ KHDUG YRFDOL]Dn WLRQ 7KLV FDOO ZDV JLYHQ LQ PDQ\ VLWXDWLRQV 7KH .ZHHW FDOO DSSHDUHG WR IXQFWLRQ LQ NHHSLQJ LQGLYLGXDOV DZDUH RI WKH GLUHFWLRQ DQG GLVWDQFH RI RWKHU PHPEHUV DQG LQ ELUGV WKDW ZHUH DORQH WR DLG LQ ILQGLQJ RWKHU FRQVSHFLILFV &0 JDYH .ZHHWV ZKLOH IRUDJLQJ DIWHU WDNLQJ IOLJKW DQG ZKHQ DSSURDFKn LQJ RU OHDYLQJ WKH QHVW VLWH 7KH .ZHHW FDOO ZDV JLYHQ E\ ERWK VH[HV GXULQJ DJJUHVVLYH LQWHUDFWLRQV LQYROYLQJ HLWKHU VH[ 0DOHV JDYH .ZHHW FDOOV ZKLOH WKH\ DWWDFNHG RU FKDVHG RWKHU &0 RU ELUG VSHFLHV ,Q RI FDVHV .ZHHWV ZHUH JLYHQ GXULQJ DQ DJJUHVVLYH HQFRXQWHU 7KH\ ZHUH JLYHQ OHVV RIWHQ RI FDVHVf GXULQJ WKH DSSURDFK RI D SUHGDWRU

PAGE 154

.ZHHW FDOOV ZHUH RIWHQ FRPELQHG ZLWK :KHHW FDOOV XQGHU VXFK FLUFXPVWDQFHV :UDFN FDOO 7KH :UDFN FDOO )LJXUH (f ZDV D KDUVK FRQFHQWUDWHG EODVW RI HQHUJ\ FRQVLVWLQJ RI FORVHO\ VSDFHG KDUPRQLFV ZKLFK ZHUH QRW GLVWLQFW 7KLV FDOO ZDV UHODWHG LQ FRQWH[W DQG VWUXFWXUH WR WKH =ZUDFN FDOO RI WKH 30 DQG .UDFN FDOO RI WKH *0 ,WV GXUDWLRQ YDULHG EHWZHHQ DQG VHF [ s VHF Q f 7KH FDOOnV HQHUJ\ ZDV FRQFHQWUDWHG EHWZHHQ s N+] DQG s N+] 7KLV FDOO ZDV XVHG LQ DODUP FRQWH[WV Q f 7KH :UDFN FDOO ZDV JLYHQ RQ VL[ RFFDVLRQV ZKHQ D 5HGFURZQHG ZRRGn SHFNHU IOHZ WR WKH &0 QHVW WUHH 2Q IRXU RFFDVLRQV D WHUULWRULDO LQGLYLGXDO JDYH WKLV FDOO ZKHQ D &0 LQWUXGHU HQWHUHG WKH DUHD 3ULPDU\ VRQJ 7KH SULPDU\ VRQJ )LJXUH $f ZDV JLYHQ RQO\ E\ PDOHV DQG ZDV FRPSRVHG RI QLQH WR GLVWLQFW V\OODEOHV [ s Q f 7KH VRQJ RIWHQ EHJDQ ZLWK D KLJK SLWFKHG RU VWURQJO\ LQIOHFWHG V\OODEOH LQFOXGHG D VHULHV RI UDSLGO\ XWWHUHG FRPSOH[ V\OODEOHV DQG FRQFOXGHG ZLWK DQRWKHU VKDUS RU LQIOHFWHG V\OODEOH 7KH FKLHI IXQFWLRQ RI WKH &0 SULPDU\ VRQJ DSSHDUHG WR EH WR VLJQDO WKDW DQ LQGLYLGXDO ZDV RQ KLV EUHHGLQJ WHUULn WRU\ $ WHUULWRULDO RZQHU FDOOHG DQG VDQJ GXULQJ WHUULn WRULDO LQWUXVLRQV E\ DQRWKHU &0 $ ELUG XVXDOO\ VDW LQ WKH QHVW DQG IDFHG RXWZDUG ZKLOH VLQJLQJ Q f DOWKRXJK VRQJV RFFDVLRQDOO\ ZHUH JLYHQ E\ ELUGV FOLQJLQJ WR WKH QHVW HQWUDQFH Q f

PAGE 155

&0 VRQJV ZHUH DOVR XVHG LQ VH[XDO FRQWH[WV VXFK DV GXULQJ FRXUWLQJ DQG ZKHQ HVWDEOLVKLQJ SDLUERQGV 2Q RFFDVLRQV D IHPDOH FOXQJ WR WKH QHVW HQWUDQFH ZKLOH WKH PDOH VDW LQ WKH QHVW DQG VDQJ 7KH IHPDOH HQWHUHG WKH QHVW RQ HLJKW RFFDVLRQV IOHZ RII RQ WKUHH RFFDVLRQV DQG UHPDLQHG VWDWLRQDU\ RQ WKH UHPDLQLQJ IRXU RFFDVLRQV $QDO\VLV DQG 'LVFXVVLRQ RI 9RFDO 'LVSOD\V 0\ UHVHDUFK GHPRQVWUDWHG WKDW PDUWLQV JLYH YRFDOL]Dn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f ORZLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW f KLJKLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW f /XQJH f *DSH f :LWKGUDZ +LJK8S DQG f $OHUW +LJK8S 7DEOHV f

PAGE 156

7DEOH 3HUFHQWDJH 0DUWLQV 2FFXUUHQFH RI 9RFDOL]DWLRQV 'XULQJ $JRQLVWLF %HKDYLRU RI 3XUSOH 9RFDOL]DWLRQ 7\SHV RI $JRQLVWLF %HKDYLRU 1 &KHU =ZHHW &KRUWOH +HHKHH =ZUDFN 5DWWOH 1RQH /RZLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW +LJKLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW /XQJH *DSLQJ :LWKGUDZ +LJK8S $OHUW +LJK8S

PAGE 157

7DEOH 3HUFHQWDJH 2FFXUUHQFH RI 9RFDOL]DWLRQV 'XULQJ $JRQLVWLF %HKDYLRU RI *UD\%UHDVWHG 0DUWLQV 9RFDOL]DWLRQ 7\SHV RI $JRQLVWLF %HKDYLRU 1 &KHXU &UHH 6ZDW =XUU .UDFN 5DWWOH &OXFN 1RQH /RZLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW +LJKLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW /XQJH *DSLQJ :LWKGUDZ +LJK8S $OHUW +LJK8S

PAGE 158

7DEOH 3HUFHQWDJH &DULEEHDQ 2FFXUUHQFH RI 0DUWLQV 9RFDOL]DWLRQV 'XULQJ $JRQLVWLF %HKDYLRU RI 9RFDOL]DWLRQ 7\SHV RI $JRQLVWLF %HKDYLRU 1 =ZRRW :KHHW .ZHHW &URRW :UDFN 3HDN 1RQH /RZLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW +LJKLQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW /XQJH *DSLQJ :LWKGUDZ +LJK8S $OHUW +LJK8S

PAGE 159

7KH PRVW FRPPRQ YRFDO FRPSRQHQWV RI WKH ORZ DQG KLJK LQWHQVLW\ +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW GLVSOD\V ZHUH WKH +HHKHH FDOOV 30f WKH =ZDW FDOOV *0f DQG WKH .ZHHW FDOOV &0f 7KHVH WKUHH YRFDOL]DWLRQV DOO VHUYHG WR LQFUHDVH WKH GLVWDQFH EHWZHHQ WKH VLJQDOHU DQG UHFHLYHU DQG ZHUH XVHG PRVW RIWHQ GXULQJ DJRQLVWLF LQWHUDFWLRQV WKDW SUHFHGHG ILJKWV 7KH\ VHUYHG WR FDOO DWWHQWLRQ WR WKH DJJUHVVLYH ELUG DQG HPSKDn VL]HG WKH GLVSOD\ %LUGV WKDW JDYH WKHVH FDOOV ZKLOH WKH\ ZHUH EHLQJ DWWDFNHG 2WKHU ZLGHO\ XVHG YRFDOL]DWLRQV ZHUH WKH &KHU 30f &KHXU *0f DQG =ZRRW &0f FDOOV $OO WKUHH PDUWLQ VSHFLHV XVHG WKHVH FDOOV LQ WKH VDPH FRQWH[W RIWHQ ZLWK WKH VDPH YLVXDO GLVSOD\ $OHUW +LJK83f 7KH FDOOV IXQFWLRQHG WR ORFDOL]H FRQVSHFLILFV DQG WR PDLQWDLQ DXGLWRU\ FRQWDFW ZLWK WKHP HYHQ ZKHQ WKH VLJQDOHU FRXOG QRW EH VHHQ ,Q DFFRUn GDQFH ZLWK WKLV IXQFWLRQ WKHVH FDOOV ZHUH FRPPRQ ZKHQ D VLJQDOHU ZDV IRUDJLQJ ODQGLQJ RU DOHUWLQJ RWKHU LQGLYLn GXDOV WR LWV SUHVHQFH :KHQ JLYHQ E\ D ELUG RXWVLGH WKH EUHHGLQJ WHUULWRU\ WKH PHDQLQJ VLJQDOOHG WR UHFHLYHUV ZDV WKDW WKH LQGLYLGXDO ZRXOG PRYH QHDU ZLWKRXW FKDOOHQJLQJ =ZHHW FDOOV 30f =XUU FDOOV *0f DQG :KHHW FDOOV &0f ZHUH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW GLVSOD\V XVHG GXULQJ OHVV LQWHQVH LQWHUDFWLRQV )RU H[DPSOH QRWHG VHYHUDO LQVWDQFHV LQ DOO WKUHH VSHFLHV LQ ZKLFK D PDUWLQ SHUFKHG DW D QHVWLQJ VLWH JDYH WKH VSHFLHV DSSURSULDWH FDOO ZKHQ D ULYDO DSSURDFKHG WR ZKLFK WKH LQFRPLQJ ELUG UHVSRQGHG E\ DGYDQFLQJ QR IXUWKHU RU E\ UHWUHDWLQJ 7KHVH WKUHH FDOOV

PAGE 160

ZHUH DOVR XVHG GXULQJ DODUP VLWXDWLRQV LQ DVVRFLDWLRQ ZLWK WKH $OHUW +LJK8S GLVSOD\ RU IOLJKW &KRUWOH FDOOV 30f &UHH FDOOV *0f DQG &URRW FDOOV &0f ZHUH FKDUDFWHULVWLF RI FRXUWVKLS EHKDYLRU RU UHWUHDW ,Q WKH FRQWH[W RI UHWUHDW :LWKGUDZ +LJK8S ZLWK WKH DFFRPSDQ\LQJ YRFDO GLVSOD\ PHDQW WKDW WKH VLJQDOHU ZDV WHUPLQDWLQJ LQWHUDFWLRQ E\ OHDYLQJ WKH DUHD 7KH FULWHULD IRU KRPRORJLHV LQ EHKDYLRU DUH WKH VDPH DV WKRVH IRU PRUSKRORJ\ LQ WKH DEVHQFH RI D IRVVLO UHFRUG %HKDYLRU SDWWHUQV DUH WKRXJKW WR EH RI FRPPRQ RULJLQ ZKHQ WKH\ DUH VLPLODU LQ IRUP ZLGHVSUHDG LQ D JURXS DQG KDYH VLPLODU PRWLYDWLRQV IXQFWLRQV DQG GHULYDWLRQV 7LQEHUn JHQ f =ZUDFN 30f .UDFN *0f DQG :UDFN &0f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n WLYH EUHHGLQJ VLWHV 7DEOHV f =ZHHW FDOOV 30f =XUU DQG &OXFN FDOOV *0f DQG :KHHW FDOOV &0f ZHUH JLYHQ PRVW RIWHQ E\ ELUGV DUULYLQJ DW RU OHDYLQJ WKH QHVW VLWHV &KHU FDOOV 30f &KHXU FDOOV *0f DQG =ZRRW FDOOV &0f ZHUH JLYHQ PRVW RIWHQ E\ ELUGV ZKHQ DORQH

PAGE 161

7DEOH 3HUFHQWDJH RI 6HYHUDO 9RFDOL]DWLRQV *LYHQ LQ 9DULRXV &RQWH[WV E\ 3XUSOH 0DUWLQV 9RFDOL]DWLRQ &KHU =ZHHW &KRUWOH +HH+HH =ZUDFN )DFWRUV 1 f 1 f 1 f 1 f 1 O f 7LPLQJ 8SRQ DUULYDO s Vf ] V DIWHU DUULYDO 6RFLDO HQYLURQPHQW RWKHU PDUWLQVf SUHVHQW RWKHU PDUWLQVf QRW SUHVHQW 'LVWDQFH EHWZHHQ VLJQDOHU DQG QHDUHVW QHLJKERU WR FP WR FP WR FP WR FP $VVRFLDWLRQ ZLWK DJRQLVWLF HQFRXQWHUV GLVWXUEDQFH DWWDFN ILJKW SUHGDWRU RWKHU

PAGE 162

7DEOH 3HUFHQWDJH RI 0DUWLQV 6HYHUDO 9RFDOL]DWLRQV *LYHQ LQ 9DULRXV &RQWH[WV E\ *UD\%UHDVWHG 9RFDOL]DWLRQ )DFWRUV &KHXU =XUU 1 f 1 f &UHH 1 f =ZDW .UDFN 1 f 1 f 7LPLQJ 8SRQ DUULYDO s Vf V DIWHU DUULYDO 6RFLDO HQYLURQPHQW RWKHU PDUWLQVf SUHVHQW RWKHU PDUWLQVf QRW SUHVHQW 'LVWDQFH EHWZHHQ VLJQDOHU DQG QHDUHVW QHLJKERU WR P WR P WR P P $VVRFLDWLRQ ZLWK DJRQLVWLF HQFRXQWHUV GLVWXUEDQFH DWWDFN ILJKW SUHGDWRU RWKHU

PAGE 163

7DEOH 3HUFHQWDJH 0DUWLQV RI 6HYHUDO 9RFDOL]DWLRQV *LYHQ LQ 9DULRXV &RQWH[WV E\ &DULEEHDQ 9RFDOL]DWLRQ )DFWRUV =ZRRW :KHHW 1 f 1 f &URRW 1 f .ZHHW :UDFN 1 f 1 f 7LPLQJ 8SRQ DUULYDO s Vf V DIWHU DUULYDO 6RFLDO HQYLURQPHQW RWKHU PDUWLQVf SUHVHQW RWKHU PDUWLQVf QRW SUHVHQW 'LVWDQFH EHWZHHQ VLJQDOHU DQG QHDUHVW QHLJKERU WR P WR P WR P P $VVRFLDWLRQ ZLWK DJRQLVWLF HQFRXQWHUV GLVWXUEDQFH DWWDFN ILJKW SUHGDWRU RWKHU

PAGE 164

7KH FDOOV VKRZHG D JUDGLHQW LQ WHUPV RI WKH IUHTXHQF\ ZLWK ZKLFK WKH\ ZHUH JLYHQ E\ SDUWLFLSDQWV GXULQJ DJRQLVWLF HQFRXQWHUV 7DEOHV f +HHKHH 30f =ZRRW *0f DQG .ZHHW &0f ZHUH XVHG PRVW GXULQJ DWWDFNV ZKLOH =ZUDFN 30f .UDFN *0f DQG :UDFN &0f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n WLRQV LW HQFRGHG UDWKHU JHQHUDO EHKDYLRUDO PHVVDJHV %URZQ 6PLWK WKLV VWXG\f 7KURXJK WKH XVH RI SOD\EDFN H[SHULPHQWV VRQJ KDV EHHQ IRXQG WR FRQYH\ VSHFLHV LGHQWLW\ .URRGVPD 6KLRYLW] f LQGLYLGXDO LGHQWLW\ %RXJKH\ t 7KRPSVRQ %URRNV t )DOOV (POHQ f DQG WR LQGLFDWH WHUULWRULDO DQG SDLUERQG VWDWXV (POHQ 0RUVH f 7KH PDUWLQVn SULPDU\ VRQJ ZDV DOVR ULFK LQ LGHQWLI\LQJ PHVVDJHV LQGLFDWLQJ WKDW WKH VLQJHU ZDV D PDOH LQ EUHHGLQJ FRQGLWLRQ DQG RQ KLV WHUULWRU\ ,Q DGGLWLRQ D UHFHLYHU ZLWK SUHYLRXV H[SHULHQFH

PAGE 165

PLJKW EH DEOH WR LGHQWLI\ WKH VLQJHU DV D VSHFLILF LQGLn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n ODWH RYXODWLRQ LQ IHPDOH PDUWLQV DV VHHPV WR EH WKH FDVH LQ EXGJHULJDUV 0HORSVLWWDFXV XQGXODWXV %URFNZD\ )LFNHQ HW DO f ULQJ GRYHV 6WUHSWRSHOLD ULVRULD /RWW HW DO f DQG FDQDULHV 6HULQXV FDQDULXV SHUVRQ FRPP -DPHV 0XOOLJDQf 7KH PHVVDJHV IRU LQFRPSOHWH VRQJ ZHUH HTXDOO\ GLIILFXOW WR GHWHUPLQH ,QFRPSOHWH VRQJ IUHTXHQWO\ DFFRPSDQLHG DWWDFN LQ HQFRXQWHU VLWXDWLRQV ,WV XVH KRZHYHU LQ RWKHU VLWXDn WLRQV VXFK DV FRSXODWLRQ DWWHPSWV DQG IOLJKW VRQJ DUJXHV DJDLQVW WKH HQFRGLQJ RI D VSHFLILF DWWDFN PHVVDJH 3HUKDSV DQ DWWDFN PHDQLQJ LV GLVFHUQHG E\ WKH UHFHLYHU RQO\ LQ VSHFLILF FRQWH[WV RI WKH VLJQDO 7KH PDLQ GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ SULPDU\ DQG LQFRPSOHWH VRQJ UHODWHV WR GLIIHUHQFHV

PAGE 166

LQ WKH LQWHQVLW\ RI WKH EHKDYLRUDO VHOHFWLRQ ,QFRPSOHWH VRQJ LQGLFDWHG D KLJKHU SUREDELOLW\ RI D PRUH LQWHQVH LQWHUDFWLRQ ZKHWKHU DJJUHVVLYH RU VH[XDO 6WHUHRW\S\ 4XDQWLWDWLYH DQDO\VHV RI ELUG YRFDOL]DWLRQV KDYH IRFXVHG SULQFLSDOO\ RQ GHWHUPLQLQJ WKH H[WHQW RI VRQJ DQG FDOO VWHUHRW\S\ ZLWKLQ DQG DPRQJ SRSXODWLRQV %LWWHUEDXP t %DSWLVWD .URRGVPD t 9HUQHU 0DUOHU t 7DPXUD 6PLWK HW DO f ,Q VSHFLHV LQ ZKLFK YRFDOL]Dn WLRQV KDYH EHHQ VKRZQ WR FRQYH\ ERWK LQGLYLGXDO DQG VSHFLHV UHFRJQLWLRQ GLIIHUHQW DVSHFWV RI WKH YRFDOL]DWLRQ DUH JHQHUDOO\ LQYROYHG LQ HDFK FDVH (POHQ f 6SHFLHV UHFRJQLWLRQ LV IDFLOLWDWHG E\ FHUWDLQ IHDWXUHV RI WKH YRFDOL]DWLRQ WKDW DUH FRPPRQ WR DOO PHPEHUV RI WKDW VSHFLHV :KHQ VRQJV RU FDOOV WUDQVPLW WKH LGHQWLW\ RI WKH VLQJHU KRZHYHU YDULDWLRQ RI VRPH DVSHFW RI WKH YRFDOL]DWLRQVf LV UHTXLUHG ,Q FHUWDLQ FRORQLDO VHD ELUGV IRU H[DPSOH LQGLYLGXDO YRFDOL]DWLRQV GLIIHU SULPDULO\ LQ LQWHQVLW\ SDWWHUQV +DQG f 0RVW RI WKH SDUDPHWHUV RI PDUWLQ YRFDOL]DWLRQV WKDW PHDVXUHG VKRZHG D KLJK GHJUHH RI VWHUHRW\S\ 7DEOHV f &RHIILFLHQWV RI YDULDWLRQ UDQJHG IURP b WR b IRU WKH PHDVXUHG SDUDPHWHUV 2I WKH IRXU SDUDPHWHUV PHDVXUHG IRU HDFK FDOO b Q f KDG D FRHIILFLHQW RI YDULDWLRQ RI b RU OHVV ,QWHUYDOV EHWZHHQ FDOOV ZHUH WKH PRVW VWDEOH SDUDPHWHU FYbf 7KH GXUDWLRQ RI V\OODEOHV RI UHSHDWHG FDOOV ZDV DOVR YHU\ FRQVLVWHQW HJ 30 &KHU FDOOV

PAGE 167

7DEOH &RPSDULVRQ RI WKH 3K\VLFDO &KDUDFWHULVWLFV RI 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ 9RFDOL]DWLRQV &DOO 1 ; 6' &9 &KHU 'XUDWLRQ RI FDOOV ,QWHUYDO EHWZHHQ FDOOV 0D[LPXP IUHTXHQF\ 0LQLPXP IUHTXHQF\ =ZHHW 'XUDWLRQ RI FDOOV ,QWHUYDO EHWZHHQ FDOOV 0D[LPXP IUHTXHQF\ 0LQLPXP IUHTXHQF\ +HHKHH 'XUDWLRQ RI FDOOV ,QWHUYDO EHWZHHQ FDOOV 0D[LPXP IUHTXHQF\ 0LQLPXP IUHTXHQF\ &KRUWOH 'XUDWLRQ RI FDOOV ,QWHUYDO EHWZHHQ FDOOV 0D[LPXP IUHTXHQF\ 0LQLPXP IUHTXHQF\ =ZUDFN 'XUDWLRQ RI FDOOV ,QWHUYDO EHWZHHQ FDOOV f§ f§ f§ 0D[LPXP IUHTXHQF\ 0LQLPXP IUHTXHQF\ &KRR 'XUDWLRQ RI FDOOV ,QWHUYDO EHWZHHQ FDOOV 0D[LPXP IUHTXHQF\ 0LQLPXP IUHTXHQF\ 5DWWOH 'XUDWLRQ RI FDOOV ,QWHUYDO EHWZHHQ FDOOV 0D[LPXP IUHTXHQF\ 0LQLPXP IUHTXHQF\ D$OO GXUDWLRQV DQG LQWHUYDOV DUH LQ VHF r$ IUHTXHQFLHV DUH LQ N+]

PAGE 168

7DEOH &RPSDULVRQ RI WKH 3K\VLFDO &KDUDFWHULVWLFV RI *UD\%UHDVWHG 0DUWLQ 9RFDOL]DWLRQV &DOO 1 ; 6' FY &KHXU 'XUDWLRQ RI FDOOV ,QWHUYDO EHWZHHQ FDOOV 0D[LPXP IUHTXHQF\ 0LQLPXP IUHTXHQF\ &UHH 'XUDWLRQ RI FDOOV ,QWHUYDO EHWZHHQ FDOOV 0D[LPXP IUHTXHQF\ 0LQLPXP IUHTXHQF\ =ZDW 'XUDWLRQ RI FDOOV ,QWHUYDO EHWZHHQ FDOOV f§ f§ f§ f§ 0D[LPXP IUHTXHQF\ 0LQLPXP IUHTXHQF\ =XUU 'XUDWLRQ RI FDOOV ,QWHUYDO EHWZHHQ FDOOV 0D[LPXP IUHTXHQF\ 0LQLPXP IUHTXHQF\ .UDFN 'XUDWLRQ RI FDOOV ,QWHUYDO EHWZHHQ FDOOV f§ f§ f§ f§ 0D[LPXP IUHTXHQF\ 0LQLPXP IUHTXHQF\ &OXFN 'XUDWLRQ RI FDOOV ,QWHUYDO EHWZHHQ FDOOV f§ f§ f§ f§ 0D[LPXP IUHTXHQF\ 0LQLPXP IUHTXHQF\ 5DWWOH 'XUDWLRQ RI FDOOV ,QWHUYDO EHWZHHQ FDOOV 0D[LPXP IUHTXHQF\ 0LQLPXP IUHTXHQF\ D$OO GXUDWLRQV DQG LQWHUYDOV DUH LQ VHF E$OO IUHTXHQFLHV DUH LQ N+]

PAGE 169

7DEOH &RPSDULVRQ RI WKH 3K\VLFDO &KDUDFWHULVWLFV RI &DULEEHDQ 0DUWLQ 9RFDOL]DWLRQV &DOO 1 ; 6' &9 =ZRRW 'XUDWLRQ RI FDOOV ,QWHUYDO EHWZHHQ FDOOV f§ f§ f§ f§ 0D[LPXP IUHTXHQF\ 0LQLPXP IUHTXHQF\ :KHHW 'XUDWLRQ RI FDOOV ,QWHUYDO EHWZHHQ FDOOV 0D[LPXP IUHTXHQF\ 0LQLPXP IUHTXHQF\ &URRW 'XUDWLRQ RI FDOOV ,QWHUYDO EHWZHHQ FDOOV f§ f§ f§ f§ 0D[LPXP IUHTXHQF\ 0LQLPXP IUHTXHQF\ 3HDN 'XUDWLRQ RI FDOOV ,QWHUYDO EHWZHHQ FDOOV f§ f§ f§ f§ 0D[LPXP IUHTXHQF\ 0LQLPXP IUHTXHQF\ .ZHHW 'XUDWLRQ RI FDOOV ,QWHUYDO EHWZHHQ FDOOV 0D[LPXP IUHTXHQF\ 0LQLPXP IUHTXHQF\ :UDFN 'XUDWLRQ RI FDOOV ,QWHUYDO EHWZHHQ FDOOV f§ f§ f§ 0D[LPXP IUHTXHQF\ 0LQLPXP IUHTXHQF\ D$OO GXUDWLRQV DQG LQWHUYDOV DUH LQ VHF 8$ IUHTXHQFLHV DUH LQ N+]

PAGE 170

FY b *0 &UHH FDOOV FY b &0 =ZRRW FDOOV FY bf 7KH GXUDWLRQ DQG IUHTXHQF\ RI FDOOV ZHUH WKH PRVW YDULDEOH SDUDPHWHUV 2I WKH HLJKW ZLWK FRHIILFLHQWV RI YDULDWLRQ JUHDWHU WKDQ b IRXU ZHUH IUHTXHQF\ FRPSRQHQWV DQG WZR ZHUH VRQJ OHQJWK PHDVXUHPHQWV 7KHUH DUH WZR SRVVLEOH H[SODQDWLRQV IRU WKH YDULDELOLW\ LQ WKH FDOO GLVSOD\V )LUVW WKH RYHUDOO GHJUHH RI YDULDn ELOLW\ RI PDQ\ FDOOV JLYHQ E\ D VSHFLILF LQGLYLGXDO RYHU D VKRUW SHULRG RI WLPH FRXOG VHUYH WR UHGXFH KDELWXDWLRQ RQ WKH SDUW RI WKH UHFHLYHU $ ELUG VHSDUDWHG IURP D PDWH RU IORFN ZKR JLYHV D FRQVHFXWLYH ORFDWLRQ FDOO GLIIHULQJ LQ GXUDWLRQ IUHTXHQF\ RU LQWHQVLW\ PLJKW DFWXDOO\ EH VLJn QDOOLQJ WR RWKHUV WKDW LW LV VWLOO VHSDUDWHG 7KH YLDELOLW\ LQ WKHVH FDOOV PD\ UHIOHFW D YHUVLRQ RI +DUWVKRUQHnV DQWLn PRQRWRQ\ K\SRWKHVLV IRU ELUG VRQJ +DUWVKRUQH f 6HFRQG YDULDELOLW\ LQ PDUWLQ FDOOV FRXOG EH FRUUHODWHG ZLWK VXEWOH FKDQJHV LQ EHKDYLRUDO VWDWHV WKDW DUH QRW UHDGLO\ DSSDUHQW WR KXPDQ REVHUYHUV 7KH VLPLODULW\ RI WKH HOHPHQWV ZLWKLQ D FDOO WR RWKHU GLVFUHWH FDOO W\SHV ZLWKLQ WKH UHSHUWRLUH PD\ EH LPSRUWDQW IRU D UHFHLYHUnV GHWHUPLQDn WLRQ RI WKH IXQFWLRQV RI YDULDQWV RI WKDW LQGLYLGXDOnV FDOO W\SH 0DUOHU f SRVWXODWHG WKDW D FDOOnV VSHFLHVVSHFLILF SURSHUWLHV PD\ OLH LQ LWV RYHUDOO WHPSRUDO SDWWHUQ ZKLOH LQGLYLGXDOLW\ LV SRVVLEOH WKURXJK GHWDLOHG FKDQJHV RI SLWFK 7KXV D FDOO FRQIRUPV WR WKDW W\SLFDO RI WKH VSHFLHV ZKLOH FRQYH\LQJ LQIRUPDWLRQ WKDW LGHQWLILHV WKH LQGLYLGXDO 7KH

PAGE 171

SK\VLFDO VWUXFWXUH RI WKH PDUWLQ FDOOV VHHPV WR EH DGDSWHG IRU FRQYH\LQJ VSHFLHV DQG LQGLYLGXDO LGHQWLW\ )RU H[DPSOH WKH +HHKHH 30f =ZDW *0f DQG &URRW FDOOV &0f VKRZHG WKHLU JUHDWHVW YDULDWLRQ LQ IUHTXHQF\ SDUDPHWHUV 7DEOHV f ,QGLYLGXDOLW\ PD\ EH FRQYH\HG E\ GLVFUHWH SDWWHUQV RI RYHUWRQHV DQG GHWDLOHG IUHTXHQF\ YDULDWLRQV RI WKH PDLQ WRQH ZLWKLQ UDWKHU IL[HG OLPLWV ,Q DGGLWLRQ HDFK ELUG VWLOO UHWDLQV YDULDELOLW\ E\ EHLQJ DEOH WR XVH DPSOLWXGH FKDQJHV GLIIHUHQW FDOOV DQG LQGLYLGXDO UDWHV RI FDOOLQJ RU UHSHWLWLRQ (FRORJ\ RI &RPPXQLFDWLRQ 0DUOHU E f FODVVLILHG YRFDOL]DWLRQV DFFRUGLQJ WR ZKHWKHU WKH\ IDFLOLWDWHG RU KLQGHUHG ORFDWLQJ WKH VLJQDOHUnV SRVLWLRQ &DOOV WKDW FRXOG EH ORFDWHG UHDGLO\ ZHUH FKDUDFWHUL]HG E\ EUHYLW\ PDQ\ FKDQJHV RI IUHTXHQF\ ORZ IUHTXHQFLHV DQG DEUXSW EHJLQQLQJV DQG HQGLQJV &DOOV WKDW ZHUH KDUGHU WR ORFDWH KDG ORQJ GXUDWLRQV QR VXGGHQ IUHTXHQF\ FKDQJHV QR GLVFRQWLQXLWLHV DQG JUDGXDO EHJLQn QLQJV DQG HQGLQJV 7KH PDMRULW\ RI YRFDO VLJQDOV XVHG E\ WKH PDUWLQV VWXGLHG ZHUH FKDUDFWHUL]HG E\ TXDOLWLHV WKDW DSSHDUHG WR EH DGDSWLYH IRU FRPPXQLFDWLRQ LQ WKH RSHQ DUHDV WKH\ LQKDELW 7KHVH VRXQGV ZHUH HDV\ WR ORFDWH DV WKH\ KDG DEUXSW GLVFRQWLQXLWLHV D ZLGH IUHTXHQF\ UDQJH DQG UHSHWLWLRXV SXOVHV )RU H[DPSOH WKH &KHU 30f &KHXU *0 DQG =ZRRW &0f FDOOV ZHUH ORZ LQ IUHTXHQF\ ZHUH UHSHDWHG LQ

PAGE 172

VHTXHQFHV DQG SURYLGHG WKH PDQ\ EUHDNV DQG UHSHWLWLRQV QHFHVVDU\ IRU ORFDWLQJ E\ WLPH GLIIHUHQFHV /RFDOL]LQJ WKHVH FDOOV UHDGLO\ ZDV LPSRUWDQW EHFDXVH WKH\ ZHUH RIWHQ JLYHQ ZKHQ D PDWH ZDV DEVHQW WKHUHE\ VHUYLQJ DV DQ DWWUDF WDQW 7KH +HHKHH 30f =ZDW *0f DQG .ZHHW &0f FDOOV XVHG LQ DJJUHVVLYH HQFRXQWHUV ZHUH DOVR HDV\ WR ORFDWH EHFDXVH RI WKHLU UHSHWLWLYH ORQJ V\OODEOHV DQG KLJK DPSOLWXGH ZLWK VHYHUDO KLJK KDUPRQLFV VWUHVVHG 7KH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI HQHUJ\ DFURVV VHYHUDO KDUPRQLFV FDQ IDFLOLWDWH ORFDWLRQ RI FDOO $OWKRXJK HQHUJ\ DW KLJK IUHTXHQFLHV GHFD\V PRUH UDSLGO\ WKDQ WKDW DW ORZ IUHTXHQFLHV :LOH\ t 5LFKDUGV f WKH KLJKHU DPSOLWXGH RI WKHVH FDOOV PD\ FRPSHQVDWH IRU WKH GHFD\ RI KLJKHU IUHTXHQFLHV 7KH VHOHFWLYH GHFD\ RI KLJKHU IUHTXHQn FLHV ZLWK LQFUHDVLQJ GLVWDQFH FRXOG DOVR SURYLGH D UHFHLYHU ZLWK LQIRUPDWLRQ DV WR KRZ GLVWDQW WKH VLJQDOHU LV IURP WKH UHFHLYHU 2SHQ KDELWDWV KRZHYHU DUH GLIILFXOW HQYLURQPHQWV IRU VRXQG SURSDJDWLRQ GXH ODUJHO\ WR ZLQG VSHHG DQG WHPSHUDWXUH VWUDWLILFDWLRQ 7KHVH FRQGLWLRQV GLIIUDFW WKH VRXQG ZDYH IURQW XSZDUG SURGXFLQJ D VRXQGOHVV DUHD RU VKDGRZ ]RQH HIIHFW WKDW FDQ EH HOLPLQDWHG LI D ELUG FDOOV IURP DV OLWWOH DV WR P DERYH WKH JURXQG 0RUWRQ f 7KH WKUHH VSHFLHV RI PDUWLQV VWXGLHG SHUIRUPHG GDZQ VRQJ IOLJKWV DW D PLQLPXP RI P DERYH WKH JURXQG WKXV LQFUHDVLQJ WKHLU EURDGFDVWLQJ HIIHFWLYHQHVV 0RUHRYHU WKH XVH RI HOHYDWHG SHUFKHV HJ WHOHSKRQH ZLUHV URRIWRSV RI KRXVHVf IRU

PAGE 173

FDOOLQJ DQG VLQJLQJ PD\ PLQLPL]H WKH EORFNDJH DQG PXIIOLQJ RI VRXQG E\ REVWDFOHV VXFK DV VKUXEV DQG WUHHV WKDW ZRXOG RWKHUZLVH GHIOHFW ORZ IUHTXHQFLHV +MRUWK .QXGVHQ f 0DQ\ ELUGV H[KLELW RQH RI WZR FRQWUDVWLQJ PRGHV RI UHVSRQVH ZKHQ WKUHDWHQHG E\ SUHGDWRUV &KDUQRY t .UHEV f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n TXHQFHV 0DUOHU f SURSRVHG WKDW WKH VWUXFWXUH RI DODUP FDOOV HYROYHG WR LPSDLU VRXQG ORFDOL]DWLRQ E\ D SUHGDWRU WKHUHE\ UHGXFLQJ WKH ULVN LQFXUUHG E\ WKH VLJQDOHU &RQYHUVHO\ PREELQJ FDOOV VKRXOG SURPRWH VRXQG ORFDOL]Dn WLRQV DQ DWWULEXWH FRQVRQDQW ZLWK WKHLU UROH DV DWWUDFWDQWV 7KH =ZUDFN 30f .UDFN *0f DQG :UDFN &0f FDOOV XVHG GXULQJ PREELQJ SURYLGHG DEXQGDQW FOXHV RI WKH VLJQDOHUnV ORFDWLRQ 7KH\ WHQGHG WR VWDUW DQG HQG DEUXSWO\ ZHUH VHJPHQWHG DQG FRYHUHG D ZLGH UDQJH RI IUHTXHQFLHV 7KLV PDQQHU RI FDOOLQJ FRXOG EH DGDSWLYH VLQFH D PDUWLQ UDWKHU

PAGE 174

WKDQ WU\LQJ WR FRQFHDO LWVHOI DFWLYHO\ SXUVXHG WKH SUHGDWRU 7KH RQO\ FDOOV XVHG LQ DODUP VLWXDWLRQV WKDW GLG QRW H[KLELW DQ\ DSSUHFLDEOH IUHTXHQF\ FKDQJHV ZHUH =ZHHW 30f &UHH *0f DQG :KHHW &0f FDOOV 7KHVH FDOOV ZHUH SLWFKHG KLJKHU ODFNHG DEUXSW SKDVH RU LQWHQVLW\ GLIIHUHQFHV DQG DSSUR[LPDWHG WKH SXUH WRQHV RI ELUGV ZKRVH FDOOV DUH GLIILn FXOW IRU SUHGDWRUV WR ORFDWH 0RUWRQ f SUHGLFWHG WKDW RSHQ FRXQWU\ ELUGV ZRXOG QRW EDVH LQIRUPDWLRQ WUDQVIHU RQ VRXQG IUHTXHQF\ ZKLFK LV HDVLO\ GLVWRUWHG E\ WKH DIRUHPHQWLRQHG HQYLURQPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQVf ,QVWHDG KH VXJJHVWHG WKDW LQIRUPDWLRQ FRGLQJ VKRXOG EH EDVHG RQ WHPSRUDO FRPSRQHQWV WKDW UHPDLQ HVVHQn WLDOO\ LQWDFW DV ORQJ DV D VRXQG LV DXGLEOH 7KH GXUDWLRQ DQG VSDFLQJ RI V\OODEOHV RI WKH PDUWLQ FDOOV XVHG GXULQJ IRUDJLQJ RU FRQWDFW ZHUH OHVV YDULDEOH WKDQ WKHLU IUHTXHQF\ )XUWKHUPRUH PRVW PDUWLQ YRFDOL]DWLRQV XVHG LQ WKHVH FRQWH[WV HPSKDVL]HG IUHTXHQFLHV RI DERXW WR N+] DQG WKHUHn IRUH KDG D UHODWLYHO\ ORZ DWWHQXDWLRQ UDWH 2QO\ WKH DJJUHVVLYH FDOOV 30+HHKHH FDOOV *0=ZDW FDOOV &0U.ZHHW FDOOVf DQG WR D OHVVHU H[WHQW H[FLWHPHQW FDOOV 30&KRUWOH FDOOV *0L&UHH FDOOV &0U&URRW FDOOVf H[KLELWHG DQ\ DSSUHn FLDEOH IUHTXHQF\ FKDQJHV 5HILQHPHQWV RI 0RUWRQnV LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ 0DUWHQ t 0DUOHU 0DUWHQ HW DO f JHQHUDWHG VLPLODU SUHGLFn WLRQV ZLWK UHVSHFW WR WKH PD[LPL]DWLRQ RI VRXQG WUDQVPLVVLRQ E\ PDUWLQV %DVHG RQ WKHVH ILQGLQJV WKH ELUGV VKRXOG f YRFDOL]H IURP PRUH WKDQ P DERYH WKH JURXQG f XVH

PAGE 175

ORZ IUHTXHQF\ VRXQGV RI DSSUR[LPDWHO\ N+] DQG f SURGXFH VRXQGV ZLWK WKH HQHUJ\ FRQFHQWUDWHG LQ D UHODWLYHO\ QDUURZ EDQG 0\ ILQGLQJV IRU PDUWLQV FDOOLQJ ZKLOH IRUDJLQJ RU ZKLOH ORFDWLQJ RWKHU PHPEHUV VXSSRUWHG WKHVH SUHGLFWLRQV 0RUWRQ f GHVFULEHG D WKHRU\ RI VLJQDO VWUXFWXUH WKDW ZDV EDVHG RQ PRWLYDWLRQDOVWUXFWXUDO IRUFHV +H SRVWXODWHG WKDW WKHVH IRUFHV UHVXOWHG IURP HQYLURQPHQWDOO\ VHOHFWLYH SUHVVXUHV DQG WKDW WKH\ DFWHG SULPDULO\ RQ YRFDOL]DWLRQV XVHG LQ VLWXDWLRQV RI FORVH SUR[LPLW\ 0RUWRQ REVHUYHG WKDW YRFDO FRQYHUJHQFH DSSHDUV LQ PDQ\ ELUGV DQG RWKHU DQLPDO VSHFLHV LQ VLPLODU PRWLYDWLRQDO VHWWLQJV 7KH DFRXVWLFDO FRPSRVLWLRQ RI WKH 3URJQH YRFDO GLVSOD\V VWXGLHG DJUHHG ZLWK 0RUWRQnV f FRPPXQLFDWLRQ UXOHV 0DUWLQV WHQGHG WR XVH KDUVK ORZ IUHTXHQF\ VRXQGV LQ KRVWLOH VLWXDWLRQV ZKLOH WKH\ XVHG KLJKHU IUHTXHQF\ VRXQGV LQ DSSHDVHPHQW RU HVFDSH VLWXDWLRQV 0DUWLQV XVHG SXUH WRQHV WR H[SUHVV VWDWHV RI ORZ H[FLWDWLRQ DQG GLVWUHVV KDUVK VRXQGV IRU DWWDFN EHKDYLRU DQG H[FLWHPHQW DQG VKRUW VRIW VRXQGV IRU ZLWKGUDZDO RU VH[XDO EHKDYLRU $ PDUWLQnV XVH RI YRFDOL]DWLRQV LQ FRQMXQFWLRQ ZLWK D YLVXDO GLVSOD\ FRXOG LQFUHDVH WKH VLJQDOHUnV HIIHFWLYHQHVV LQ GUDZLQJ WKH DWWHQn WLRQ RI WKH UHFHLYHU

PAGE 176

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f .DXIPDQ f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

PAGE 177

FODVVLI\LQJ WKHP LV WKXV GLIILFXOW 7KH GHILQLWLRQ SURSRVHG E\ 1REOHV f RI D GHIHQGHG DUHD ZKHWKHU GHIHQGHG E\ WKUHDW DFWXDO FRPEDW RU DQ\ EHKDYLRU SDWWHUQ HYRNLQJ DYRLGDQFH LQ RWKHU LQGLYLGXDOV LV IRU WKLV VWXG\ D JRRG ZRUNLQJ GHILQLWLRQ $VVHVVPHQW $QLPDO FRQWHVWV LQ GHIHQVH RI UHVRXUFHV JHQHUDOO\ RFFXU ZKHQ WKHUH DUH IHZHU UHVRXUFHV WKDQ FRPSHWLWRUV DQG LI DQ LQGLYLGXDO ZLOO JDLQ D ILWQHVV EHQHILW E\ ZLQQLQJ D FRQWHVW 3DUNHU 3DUNHU t 5XEHQVWHLQ f ,Q WKHVH VLWXDn WLRQV VHOHFWLRQ VKRXOG IDYRU DJJUHVVLYH GHIHQVH VLQFH WKH EHQHILWV JDLQHG ZLOO RXWZHLJK DQ\ RI WKH QHFHVVDULO\ LQFXUUHG FRVWV 0RVW SDLUZLVH FRQWHVWV DUH DV\PPHWULF 0D\QDUG 6PLWK f $FFRUGLQJ WR JDPH WKHRU\ DQ RSWLPDO DVVHVVRU VKRXOG XVH WKHVH DV\PPHWULHV DV D FXH WR VHWWOH FRQIOLFWV FRQYHQWLRQDOO\ ZLWKRXW KDUPIXO HVFDODWLRQ 7KHUH DUH D QXPEHU RI ZD\V LQ ZKLFK WKH RXWFRPH RI D FRQWHVW PLJKW EH ELDVHG LQ IDYRU RI RQH RU WKH RWKHU FRQWHVWDQW 0D\QDUG 6PLWK DQG 3DUNHU f GLYLGHG WKHVH DV\PPHWULHV LQWR WKUHH EURDG FDWHJRULHV f UHVRXUFH KROGLQJ SRWHQWLDO 5+3f DV\PPHWULHV FRQWHVWDQWV GLIIHU LQ WKHLU FRPSHWLWLYH DELOLW\f f SD\RII DV\PPHWULHV FRQWHVWDQWV GLIIHU LQ H[SHFWHG EHQHILW IURP JDLQLQJ WKH UHVRXUFHf DQG f XQFRUn UHODWHG DV\PPHWULHV FRQWHVWDQWV GLIIHU LQ VRPH ZD\ ZKLFK LV XQUHODWHG HLWKHU WR 5+3 RU SD\RII EXW LQ D ZD\ ZKLFK FDQ EH

PAGE 178

XVHG DV DQ DUELWUDU\ FXH WR VHWWOH FRQWHVWVf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f ,PPHGLDWHO\ DIWHU DUULYDO WKH PDUWLQV VKRZHG LQWHUHVW LQ WKH QHVWLQJ URRPV DW D PXOWLURRP KRXVH RU LQ SDUWLFXODU JRXUGV DW D JRXUG FRPSOH[ 0DOHV DQG IHPDOHV ZHQW LQ DQG RXW RI VHYHUDO SRWHQWLDO QHVW URRPV WKHQ PDOHV VDW VHULDOO\ LQ IURQW RI VHYHUDO QHVW KROHV DQG VDQJ DQG ILQDOO\ ERWK VH[HV OHIW WKH EUHHGLQJ DUHD QRW WR EH VHHQ DJDLQ IRU VHYHUDO GD\V WR HYHQ VHYHUDO ZHHNV $OOHQ

PAGE 179

t 1LFH %LWWHUEDXP WKLV VWXG\ )LQOD\ -RKQVWRQ t +DUG\ 5LFKPRQG f ,Q WKH ILYH \HDUV RI P\ VWXG\ IRXQG RQO\ WZR H[FHSn WLRQV WR WKLV VFKHGXOH RI DUULYLQJ DQG WKHQ LPPHGLDWHO\ OHDYLQJ WKH EUHHGLQJ VLWHV %RWK ZHUH LQ LQ *DLQHVn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

PAGE 180

PD[LPXP FRQWDFW ZLWK KHDGV SDUWLDOO\ KLGGHQ XQGHU WKH VKRXOGHUV DQG EUHDVWV RI HDFK RWKHU ,Q QRUWK FHQWUDO 7H[DV %URZQ f IRXQG WKDW ZKHQ WHPSHUDWXUHV ZHUH r& RU ORZHU PDUWLQV VSHQW PRVW RI WKH GD\ LQVLGH WKH PDUWLQ KRXVHV 7KH PLQLPXP WHPSHUDWXUH IRU IHHGLQJ ZDV r& DQG DW WHPSHUDWXUHV RI JUHDWHU WKDQ r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

PAGE 181

%HKDYLRU RI )LUVW
PAGE 182

7HUULWRU\ 6L]H *DPH WKHRU\ SUHGLFWV WKDW WKH OHYHO RI HVFDODWLRQ UHDFKHG LQ D FRQWHVW RYHU D GLVSXWHG UHVRXUFH ZLOO UHIOHFW WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI WKH UHVRXUFH WR ERWK FRQWHVWDQWV 2QH PXVW FRQVLGHU VLWH DYDLODELOLW\ LQ DGGLWLRQ WR VLWH TXDOLW\ VLQFH XOWLPDWHO\ D UHVRXUFH LV OHVV YDOXDEOH LI LW LV LQ UHDG\ VXSSO\ WKDQ LI LW LV LQ OLPLWHG VXSSO\ ,QGLYLGXDO 30 WHUULWRULHV YDULHG LQ VL]H DQG DYDLODELOLW\ GXULQJ WKH EUHHGLQJ VHDVRQ 8VLQJ %URZQnV PHWKRG f GLVWLQn JXLVKHG PD[LPXP DQG PLQLPXP WHUULWRULHV LQ 30V 7KH PD[LPXP WHUULWRU\ ZDV WKH QXPEHU RI FRPSDUWPHQWV D PDOH GHIHQGHG XSRQ KLV DUULYDO DW WKH KRXVH 7KH PLQLPXP WHUULWRU\ ZDV WKH QXPEHU RI FRPSDUWPHQWV D PDOH GHIHQGHG DIWHU WKH HJJV KDG KDWFKHG DQG WKH PDOH ZDV IHHGLQJ \RXQJ 7KH PD[LPXP WHUULWRULHV ZHUH ODUJH DV WKH HDUO\ DUULYLQJ ELUGV HQWHUHG WKH PXOWLURRP KRXVHV EXW WKH WHUULn WRULHV VRRQ GHFUHDVHG LQ VL]HG DV ODWHU DUULYLQJ PDUWLQV DQG RWKHU KROHQHVWLQJ ELUGV ORRNHG IRU QHVWLQJ VLWHV 7KHVH WHPSRUDULO\ ODUJH WHUULWRULHV LQ ZKLFK PRUH WKDQ RQH FRPn SDUWPHQW ZDV GHIHQGHG UHVXOWHG IURP WKH ODFN RI FRPSHWLWLRQ IURP RWKHU PDOHV :LWK WKH DUULYDO RI ODWHU PLJUDQWV KRZHYHU HDUO\ PDOHV ZHUH IRUFHG WR UHOLQTXLVK PRVW RI WKHLU WHUULWRULHV )LJXUH VKRZV WKDW WKH PDMRULW\ RI WKH PLQLPXP WHUULWRULHV KDG EHHQ HVWDEOLVKHG DW WKH PXOWLURRP KRXVHV E\ ODWH 0DUFK U GI Sf $V GLVFRYHUHG E\ %URZQ f IRXQG WKDW WKH SURJUHVn VLRQ IURP PD[LPXP WR PLQLPXP WHUULWRU\ ZDV HLWKHU f E\

PAGE 183

)HE 0DUFK $SULO 7LPH RI
PAGE 184

GHJUHHf§WKH PDOHV VORZO\ UHOLQTXLVKHG SDUWV RI WKHLU PD[LPXP WHUULWRU\ LQ UHVSRQVH WR SHUVLVWHQW FKDOOHQJHV E\ RWKHU PDOHV RU f DEUXSWf§RQH GD\ D PDOH GHIHQGHG D PD[LPXP WHUULWRU\ DQG WKH QH[W GD\ KH GHIHQGHG D PLQLPXP WHUULWRU\ WKH VL]H RI ZKLFK ZDV PDLQWDLQHG GXULQJ WKH UHPDLQGHU RI WKH VHDVRQ 7DEOH VKRZV PD[LPXP DQG PLQLPXP WHUULWRU\ VL]H RI PDOH PDUWLQV DORQJ ZLWK WKHLU PRQWKV RI DUULYDO 7KLUW\HLJKW PDOHV bf LQLWLDOO\ FODLPHG WHUULWRULHV ZLWK PRUH WKDQ RQH URRP 2QO\ PDOHV bf FODLPHG WKHLU PD[LPXP WHUULWRU\ DV RQH URRP 2I WKH PDOHV ZKR FODLPHG PXOWLURRP WHUULWRULHV RQO\ QLQH bf ZHUH DEOH WR GHIHQG PRUH WKDQ RQH URRP WKURXJKRXW WKH EUHHGLQJ VHDVRQ 7KH ODUJHVW PD[LPXP WHUULWRU\ ZDV WKDW RI D PDOH ZKR VXFFHVVn IXOO\ GHIHQGHG D KRXVH ZLWK URRPV 7KH PHDQ PD[LPXP WHUULWRU\ GHIHQGHG ZDV URRPV DQG WKH PHDQ PLQLPXP WHUULWRU\ GHIHQGHG ZDV URRPV 7HUULWRU\ VL]H YDULHG ZLWK SRSXODWLRQ GHQVLW\ )LJn XUH f IRXQG D QHJDWLYH FRUUHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ WHUULWRU\ VL]H DQG WKH QXPEHU RI ELUGV DW D PXOWLURRP KRXVH U GI Sf 7KLV VXSSRUWHG WKH LGHD WKDW D SULPDU\ FDXVH RI YDULDWLRQ LQ WHUULWRU\ VL]H ZDV FRPSHWLWLRQ IURP QHLJKERULQJ ELUGV HJ (ZDOG HW DO f TXDQWLILHG WKH YDULDWLRQ LQ FRPSHWLWLRQ E\ GLYLGLQJ WKH QXPEHU RI PDOH LQWUXVLRQV E\ WKH WRWDO REVHUYDWLRQ WLPH SHU ELUG )LJn XUH VKRZV WKDW D SRVLWLYH FRUUHODWLRQ H[LVWV EHWZHHQ WHUULWRU\ VL]H DQG WKH QXPEHU RI LQWUXVLRQV LQGLFDWLQJ WKDW

PAGE 185

7DEOH 1XPEHU RI 0DOH 3XUSOH 0DUWLQV DQG 7KHLU 0D[LPXP DQG 0LQLPXP 7HUULWRU\ 6L]HV ZLWK 0DOHnV 0RQWKV RI $UULYDO )ROORZLQJ %URZQ f 0RQWK RI 0HDQ $UULYDO 7HUULWRU\ 6L]H 1R RI URRPVf 6L]H )(%58$5< PD[LPXP PLQLPXP 0$5&+ PD[LPXP PLQLPXP $35,/ PD[LPXP PLQLPXP 0$< PD[LPXP PLQLPXP 727$/ PD[LPXP PLQLPXP

PAGE 186

7HUULWRU\ 6L]H 1R RI URRPV GHIHQGHGf )LJXUH 7HUULWRU\ VL]H DV D IXQFWLRQ RI WKH QXPEHU RI 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ PDOHV DW D PXOWLURRP KRXVH

PAGE 187

7HUULWRU\ 6L]H 1R RI URRPV GHIHQGHGf 77V r LQWUXVLRQ 3UHVVXUH 1RRI ILJKWV ELUG KRXU )LJXUH 7HUULWRU\ VL]H DV D IXQFWLRQ RI WKH QXPEHU RI ILJKWV DW D 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ PXOWLURRP KRXVH

PAGE 188

SRSXODWLRQ GHQVLW\ FDQ DIIHFW YDULDWLRQ LQ WKH WHUULWRU\ VL]H RI 30V DW PXOWLURRP KRXVHV U GI Sf *RXUG &RPSOH[ 9HUVXV 0XOWLURRP +RXVHV ,QGLYLGXDO 30V EHKDYHG GLIIHUHQWO\ LQ GLIIHUHQW EUHHGLQJ VLWXDWLRQV SUREDEO\ GXH WR WKH VSDFLQJ RI WKHLU QHVWV %LUGV DW D JRXUG FRPSOH[ ZLWK WKH QHVWV D WKLUG RI D P DSDUW VSHQW OHVV WLPH ILJKWLQJ 7DEOH W GI Sf DQG PRUH WLPH ORDILQJ WKDQ ELUGV DW D PXOWLURRP KRXVH ZLWK WKH QHVWV RQO\ QLQH FP DSDUW 7DEOH W GI Sf WKH WKLUG RI D P EHWZHHQ QHVWV LQ D JRXUG FRPSOH[ SUHYHQWHG ELUGV IURP LQWHUDFWLQJ ZKHUHDV WKH QLQH FP EHWZHHQ QHVW URRPV LQ D PXOWLURRP KRXVH LQFUHDVHG WHUULWRULDO LQWHUDFWLRQV DQG SRVVLEO\ GLVUXSWHG EUHHGLQJ DFWLYLWLHV $ VHFRQG LPSRUWDQW GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ 30V QHVWLQJ LQ PXOWLURRP KRXVHV DQG WKRVH QHVWLQJ LQ JRXUGV ZDV WKDW PXOWLURRP KRXVH UHVLGHQWV XVXDOO\ KDG D QXPEHU RI QHVW URRPV ZLWKLQ WKHLU WHUULWRU\ 7KLV DOORZHG PDOHV WKH JUHDWHU SRWHQWLDO RI EUHHGLQJ ZLWK PRUH WKDQ RQH IHPDOH ,Q FRQn WUDVW WKH JUHDWHU VSDFLQJ RI QHVWV LQ D JRXUG FRPSOH[ SUHFOXGHG PDOHV IURP GHIHQGLQJ PRUH WKDQ RQH QHVW 3RO\J\Q\ LV XQFRPPRQ LQ WKH 30 6RPH b RI DOO IHPDOHV LQ %URZQnV VWXGLHV f ZHUH PDWHG ZLWK SRO\J\QRXV PDOHV ,Q *DLQHVYLOOH IRXQG b Q f RI DOO IHPDOHV PDWHG ZLWK SRO\J\QRXV PDOHV 7KDW DGXOW PDOH 30V DUH SRWHQWLDOO\ SRO\J\QRXV LH KROG D VHFRQG QHVW URRP

PAGE 189

7DEOH $ &RPSDULVRQ RI WKH 1XPEHU RI )LJKWV DW D *RXUG &RPSOH[ 0DUWLQ 9HUVXV D 0DOHV 0XOWLURRP +RXVH IRU 3XUSOH 7RWDO 7RWDO 2EVHUYD RI )LJKWV WLRQ KUV )LJKWV %LUGV +U%LUG )HE 0DUFK *RXUG &RPSOH[ 0DUFK $SULO $SULO 0D\ 0D\ -XQH 7RWDOV r )HE 0DUFK 0XOWLURRP +RXVH 0DUFK $SULO $SULO 0D\ 0D\ -XQH 7RWDOV r rW GI S

PAGE 190

7DEOH $ &RPSDULVRQ RI WKH /HQJWK RI 7LPH 6SHQW /RDILQJ DW *RXUG &RPSOH[ 9HUVXV D 0XOWLURRP +RXVH IRU 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ 0DOHV 7RWDO 7RWDO KUV 2EVHUYD /RDILQJ WLRQ KUV +UV /RDILQJ %LUGV %LUG *RXUG &RPSOH[ )HE 0DUFK 0DUFK $SULO $SULO 0D\ 0D\ -XQH 7RWDOV r 0XOWLURRP +RXVH )HE 0DUFK 0DUFK $SULO $SULO 0D\ 0D\ -XQH 7RWDOV r rW GI e

PAGE 191

ZKHUH DQRWKHU IHPDOH FDQ EUHHGf DQG WKDW VR IHZ RI WKHP REWDLQ D VHFRQG PDWH PD\ GHSHQG RQ ZKHWKHU RWKHU PDOHV DUH DEOH WR JDLQ UHVLGHQFH LQ WKH PXOWLURRP KRXVHV DQG HYHQWXn DOO\ EUHHG )LUVW\HDU PDOHV QHYHU VXFFHHGHG LQ EHFRPLQJ SRO\J\QRXV LQ WKLV VWXG\ SUREDEO\ EHFDXVH WKH\ ZHUH XQDEOH WR GHIHQG PRUH WKDQ RQH QHVW URRP RU EHFDXVH WKH\ DUULYHG VR ODWH WKHUH ZHUH QRQH DYDLODEOH 3RO\J\Q\ WKHUHIRUH DSSDUHQWO\ H[LVWV LQ WKH 30 RQO\ XQGHU WKH IROORZLQJ FRQGLn WLRQV f D PXOWLURRP KRXVH ZLWK PDQ\ QHVW URRPV LQ FORVH SUR[LPLW\ f D ORZ GHQVLW\ RI PDOHV DQG f DQ H[FHVV QXPEHU RI IHPDOHV ,Q WKH *0 DQG &0 SRWHQWLDO EUHHGLQJ VLWHV ZHUH PRUH ZLGHO\ VHSDUDWHG EHFDXVH RI WKH GLVFRQWLQn XRXV QDWXUH RI WKH QHVWLQJ KROHV 7KLV HOLPLQDWHG RSSRUn WXQLWLHV IRU SRO\J\Q\ *UD\%UHDVWHG 0DUWLQ (VWDEOLVKPHQW RI 7HUULWRU\ $W 3RLQWHD3LHUUH 7ULQLGDG *0 ZHUH YLVLWLQJ WKH EUHHGLQJ DUHD ZKHQ DUULYHG RQ $SULO %UHHGLQJ SDLUV ZHUH IRUPHG EHIRUH WKH WHUULWRULHV ZHUH HVWDEOLVKHG VR WHUULWRULDO EHKDYLRU ZDV QRW DV LPSRUWDQW LQ EULQJLQJ WKH VH[HV WRJHWKHU DV LQ WKH 30 %HFDXVH *0V LQ 7ULQLGDG GR QRW PLJUDWH IIUHQFK f WKLV PD\ FRQWULEXWH WR WKH SHUPDn QHQFH RI WKH SDLU ERQG $OWKRXJK WHUULWRULHV FHDVH WR H[LVW LQ WKH ZLQWHU PDWHG ELUGV VSHQG PRVW RI WKHLU WLPH LQ WKH YLFLQLW\ RI WKHLU WHUULWRULHV RI WKH SUHYLRXV \HDU 5HQVRQ

PAGE 192

-DPHV SHUVRQDO FRPPXQLFDWLRQf 'XULQJ WKH ZLQWHU RI 5HQVRQ -DPHV REVHUYHG UHVLGHQW PDOH *0V FKDVLQJ QRQUHVLGHQW PDOHV DQG KROHQHVWLQJ :KLWHZLQJHG 6ZDOORZV 7DFK\FLQHWD DOELYHQWHUf DZD\ IURP UHVLGHQW PDOHVn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f DQG WKH LQWHUYHQLQJ VSDFH ZDV GHIHQGHG 7KH WHUULn WRULHV DW WKH 3XPSKRXVH ZHUH QHLWKHU ULJLG QRU FOHDUO\ GHILQHG ,QVWHDG WKH\ FRQVLVWHG RI D IOXLG UHJLRQ DURXQG FHUWDLQ SUHIHUUHG SLSHV ZLWK WKH UHJLRQnV VL]H GHSHQGLQJ RQ FRPSHWLWLRQ IURP QHLJKERULQJ PDOHV )LJXUH VKRZV WKDW LQ WKH *0 OLNH WKH 30 D SRVLWLYH FRUUHODWLRQ H[LVWHG EHWZHHQ WHUULWRU\ VL]H DQG FRPSHWLWLYH LQWUXVLRQV U GI

PAGE 193

)LJXUH 7HUULWRU\ VL]H DV D IXQFWLRQ RI WKH QXPEHU RI ILJKWV DW WKH *UD\EUHDVWHG 0DUWLQ QHVWLQJ DUHD

PAGE 194

Sf $JJUHVVLRQ EHWZHHQ QHLJKERULQJ PDOHV JUDGXDOO\ GHFUHDVHG RQFH ERXQGDULHV ZHUH HVWDEOLVKHG *UD\%UHDVWHG 0DUWLQ &RORQ\ 'HIHQVH *0 DSSHDUHG WR KDYH D W\SH RI PXWXDO GHIHQVH DJDLQVW HQFURDFKPHQW E\ WKH QRQQHLJKERULQJ PDOHV QHVWLQJ LQ RWKHU DUHDV DORQJ WKH MHWW\ 5HVLGHQW PDOHV GLG QRW GULYH RXW DOO LQWUXGHUV LQGLVFULPLQDWHO\ 5HVLGHQWV FOHDUO\ UHFRJQL]HG WKHLU HVWDEOLVKHG QHLJKERUV DQG WHUULWRULDO GHIHQVH ZDV GLUHFWHG DJDLQVW QRQUHVLGHQWV ZKR UHSUHVHQWHG D SRWHQWLDO WKUHDW WR D UHVLGHQWnV FDYLW\ 2Q RFFDVLRQV REVHUYHG UHVLGHQW PDOHV GHIHQG WKH SXPSKRXVH DUHD IURP QRQUHVLGHQW LQWUXGHUV 7KRXJK WKHVH LQWUXGHUV ZHUH XVXDOO\ FKDVHG E\ WKH GRPLQDQW PDOHV DW WKH 3XPSKRXVH DOO PDOHV GHIHQGHG DW OHDVW RFFDVLRQDOO\ 2Q ILYH RWKHU RFFDVLRQV DW WKH 3XPSn KRXVH ZKHQ WZR QHLJKERULQJ PDOHV ZHUH GLVSOD\LQJ DJJUHVn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f

PAGE 195

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n DEOH QHVW VLWHV $W WKH EHJLQQLQJ RI P\ ILHOG ZRUN RQ &0 ZDWFKHG WKUHH SDLUV WKDW KDG QRW \HW FRPPHQFHG EUHHGLQJ VDZ D WRWDO RI RQO\ KRVWLOH HQFRXQWHUV DPRQJ WKHP LQ IRXU ZHHNV $V LQ *0 DQG 30 &0 WHUULWRULDO GHIHQVH ZDV VROHO\ E\ PDOHV 2QFH HVWDEOLVKHG WHUULWRULHV ZHUH VHOGRP WUHVSDVVHG 7KXV WKHUH ZDV OLWWOH WHUULWRULDO ILJKWLQJ 7KH ELUGV PXWXDOO\ DYRLGHG HDFK RWKHUnV DUHD :KHQ WUHVn SDVVLQJ RFFXUUHG LQWUXGHUV DOZD\V Q f IOHG ZKHQ UHVLGHQW PDOHV VDQJ VDZ QHLJKERULQJ PDOHV HQWHU WHUULWRULHV RI NQRZQ PDOHV DQG IOHH ZKHQ WKRVH PDOHV VDQJ RQ RFFDVLRQV

PAGE 196

2Q RI WKRVH RFFDVLRQV WKH LQWUXGHU GLG QRW VHH WKH PDOH EXW VHHPLQJO\ IOHG RQO\ EHFDXVH RI KLV YRFDOL]DWLRQV 7KH LQWUXGHUV GLG QRW IOHH RQ RFFDVLRQV WKHVH ZHUH WLPHV ZKHQ WKH PDOHV GLG QRW VLQJ VDZ UHVLGHQW PDOHV DWWDFN LQWUXGHUV LQ IOLJKW RQ RFFDVLRQV 7KH WHUULWRULDO ELUG IOHZ VWUDLJKW DW WKH LQWUXGHU HDFK WLPH 7KH LQWUXGHU WKHQ WXUQHG DQG IOHG Q f DQG RIWHQ ZDV FKDVHG Q f 2Q WZR RFFDVLRQV WKH WHUULWRULDO ELUG VWUXFN WKH WUHVSDVVHU DQG WKH\ JUDSSOHG IDOOLQJ WR WKH JURXQG 7KH WUHVSDVVHU EURNH ORRVH DQG IOHG ZKLOH WKH GHIHQGHU UHWXUQHG WR LWV QHVW WUHH ERWK WLPHV &0nV VKRZHG D VWURQJ QHVW VLWH DWWDFKPHQW DQG GHIHQGHG DQ DUHD H[WHQGLQJ DW OHDVW P LQ DOO GLUHFWLRQV IURP WKH QHVW FDYLW\ VDZ UHVLGHQW PDOHV FKDVH LQWUXGHUV IURP WKHVH DUHDV WLPHV &KDVHV ZHUH GLUHFWHG QRW RQO\ DW PDUWLQV EXW DW RWKHU VSHFLHV LQFOXGLQJ 5HGFURZQHG :RRGn SHFNHUV %OXHJUD\ 7DQDJHUV 7KUDXSLV HLSLVFRSXVf DQG %XIIWKURDWHG :RRGFUHHSHUV ;LSKRUK\QFKXV JXWWDWXVf $V\PPHWU\ LQ 5HVRXUFH +ROGLQJ 3RWHQWLDO 5+3f 7KH VLJQLILFDQFH RI DV\PPHWULHV LQ FRQIOLFWV GHSHQGV RQ WKH DELOLW\ RI WKH RSSRQHQWV WR SHUFHLYH VXFK DV\PPHWULHV DQG DGMXVW WKHLU RZQ EHKDYLRU DFFRUGLQJO\ 0D\QDUG 6PLWK DQG 3ULFH f PRGHOOHG RQH SRVVLEOH JDPH EHWZHHQ RSSRQn HQWV 7KH\ XVHG ILYH VWUDWHJLHV LQ WKLV PRGHO +DZN 0RXVH %XOO\ 5HWDOLDWRU RU 3UREHU5HWDOLDWRU $Q LQGLYLn GXDO ZKR H[KLELWV WKH +DZN SDWWHUQ LV RQH ZKR HVFDODWHV WR

PAGE 197

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t 3DUNHU f 2IWHQ D WULDO FRQWHVW LV WKH RQO\ ZD\ DFFXUDWH LQIRUPDWLRQ FDQ EH DFTXLUHG WKHUHIRUH LQGLYLGXDOV DUH OLDEOH WR PDNH VHYHUDO DWWHPSWV WR DVVHVV WKHLU UHODWLYH VWUHQJWK 3DUNHU t 5XEHQVWHLQ f $ VKRUW VWUXJJOH ZLOO RFFXU LI RQH DWWHPSW SURYLGHV HQRXJK LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW WKH FRQWHVWDQWVn ILJKWLQJ DELOLW\ RU LI WKH GLVSDULW\ LQ ILJKWLQJ DELOLW\ LV ODUJH ,Q PDQ\ FRQWHVWV FHUWDLQ IHDWXUHV RI DQ RSSRQHQW SURYLGH LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW LWV 5+3 6H[ DJH ERG\ VL]H DQG ZHLJKW SOXPDJH FRORUDWLRQ H[SHULHQFH DQG UHVLGHQF\ DW D EUHHGLQJ VLWH DOO DUH YDULDEOHV WKDW PD\ LQIOXHQFH DQ LQGLYLGXDOnV 5+3 %URZQ 3DUVRQV t %DSWLVWD

PAGE 198

5RKZHU 6DELQH 7RUGRII f 7KH LPSRUWDQFH RI WKHVH YDULDEOHV DV GHWHUPLQDQWV RI DQ LQGLYLGXDOnV FRPSHWLWLYH DELOLW\ ZLOO EH FRQVLGHUHG ILUVW VHSDUDWHO\ DQG WKHQ WRJHWKHU ZKHUH SRVVLEOH $V\PPHWU\ LQ 2ZQHUVKLS 6WDWXV 7KH UHODWLYH RZQHUVKLS VWDWXV RI RSSRQHQWV SULRU WR DQ DJRQLVWLF HQFRXQWHU FRXOG EH DQ LPSRUWDQW GHWHUPLQDQW RI WKH RXWFRPH RI WKDW HQFRXQWHU ,I WKH UHVRXUFH GHIHQGHG LV D WHUULWRU\ WKHQ WHUULWRU\ RZQHUV FRXOG KDYH WKH DGYDQWDJH RI UHVLGHQF\ RYHU DQ\ LQWUXGHUV LQ VXEVHTXHQW ERXQGDU\ LQWHUn DFWLRQV 7KXV LW FRXOG EH SUHGLFWHG WKDW WKRVH LQGLYLGXDOV ZKR HVWDEOLVK WHUULWRULHV HDUO\ LQ WKH VHDVRQ ZKHQ WKHUH DUH UHODWLYHO\ IHZ FRPSHWLQJ SDLUV ZRXOG DOZD\V KDYH DQ RZQHUVn DGYDQWDJH DQG VKRXOG UHWDLQ UHODWLYHO\ PRUH RI WKH GHIHQGHG UHVRXUFH 7KH GRPLQDQFH RI HVWDEOLVKHG ELUGV RYHU QHZO\ DUULYHG LQGLYLGXDOV DW WKH QHVW VLWHV LQ )ORULGD DQG 7ULQLGDG VXJJHVWHG WKDW SULRU RFFXSDQF\ RI D QHVW VLWH ZDV DQ LPSRUn WDQW XQGHUO\LQJ IDFWRU LQ GHWHUPLQLQJ WKH RXWFRPH RI FRPSHWLn WLRQ IRU RZQHUVKLS RI D EUHHGLQJ VLWH $Q DQDO\VLV RI UHVLGHQF\ LQ UHODWLRQ WR ZLQQLQJ DQ HQFRXQWHU VKRZHG WKDW UHVLGHQW PHPEHUV ZHUH GRPLQDQW RYHU LQWUXGHUV LQ bf RI DOO 30 HQFRXQWHUV DQG LQ bf RI DOO *0 LQWHUDFWLRQV 7DEOH 30 [ GI O S *0 [ GI O Sf

PAGE 199

7DEOH &RPSDULVRQ RI :KHWKHU 3ULRU 2FFXSDQF\ DW D 1HVWLQJ 6LWH 'HWHUPLQHV WKH :LQQHU RI WKH (QFRXQWHU 5HVLGHQW :LQV 1RQUHVLGHQW :LQV 7RWDOV 3 [ 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ *UD\%UHDVWHG 0DUWLQ

PAGE 200

$V\PPHWU\ LQ $JH5HODWHG 3OXPDJH &KDUDFWHULVWLFV 7KH FRUUHODWLRQ RI FHUWDLQ DJHUHODWHG SOXPDJH FKDUDFn WHULVWLFV DQG GRPLQDQFH KDV EHHQ VKRZQ LQ D QXPEHU RI VSHFLHV f :KLWHWKURDWHG 6SDUURZV =RQRWULFKLD DOELFROOLV )LFNHQ HW DO +DLOPDQ f f :KLWH FURZQHG 6SDUURZV =RQRWULFKLD OHXFRSK\UV 3DUVRQV t %DSWLVWD f DQG f +DUULV 6SDUURZV =RQRWULFKLD TXHUXOD 5RKZHU f 5RKZHU f SURSRVHG WKH VWDWXVVLJQDOLQJ K\SRWKHVLV LQ ZKLFK ELUGV VKRZLQJ SOXPDJH YLDELOLW\ XVH WKHVH SOXPDJH WUDLWV WR VLJQDO SRWHQWLDO GRPLQDQFH VWDWXV WR FRQVSHFLILFV 5RKZHU f SUHGLFWHG WKDW VWDWXV DGYHUWLVHPHQW LV DGYDQWDJHRXV LI ELUGV DFFXUDWHO\ DVVHVV DQ LQGLYLGXDOnV VRFLDO SRVLWLRQ ZLWKRXW HQJDJLQJ LQ HQHUJHWLFDOO\ FRVWO\ ILJKWV 6WDWXV VLJQDOLQJ PD\ LQGLFDWH QRW RQO\ WKH SDVW KLVWRU\ RI WKH GLVSOD\LQJ DQLPDO EXW DOVR WKDW H[SHFWDWLRQV RI WKH RXWFRPH RI DQ\ IXWXUH FRQIURQWDWLRQV PD\ DOVR EH FRQYH\HG ,I WKLV K\SRn WKHVLV LV DSSURSULDWH IRU 30 WKHUH VKRXOG EH D FRUUHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ GRPLQDQFH DQG SOXPDJH FRORUDWLRQ ,Q 30 SOXPDJH FRORUDWLRQ LV DQ DFFXUDWH LQGLFDWRU RI VH[ DQG DJH FODVV 1LOHV f 7R GHWHUPLQH LI SOXPDJH GLIIHUHQFHV PLJKW VHUYH VWDWXVVLJQDOLQJ IXQFWLRQV LQ 30 H[DPLQHG P\ GDWD IRU SRVVLEOH DVVRFLDWLRQV EHWZHHQ SOXPDJH DQG VRFLDO VWDWXV $JHUHODWHG SOXPDJH FKDUDFWHULVWLFV SURYHG WR EH D VWURQJ GHWHUPLQDQW RI VWDWXV LQ 30 DGXOW PDOHV 2YHU WKUHH \HDUV REVHUYHG GLVSODFHPHQWV

PAGE 201

ZLWKGUDZDOV DQG FKDVHV )LIW\VHYHQ PDUWLQV ZHUH UHSUHn VHQWHG LQ DGXOW SOXPDJH DQG LQ VXEDGXOW SOXPDJH %LUGV LQ DGXOW SOXPDJH ZHUH GRPLQDQW LQ bf RI WKH WZRELUG FRPELQDWLRQV D UHVXOW WKDW ZDV KLJKO\ VLJQLILn FDQW [ GI O Sf 7KH K\SRWKHVLV LV QRW WHVWDEOH ZLWK *0 DQG &0 $JH FRXOG QRW EH GHWHUPLQHG LQ *0 DQG &0 EHFDXVH WKH\ ODFN DJHGHSHQGHQW SOXPDJH FKDUDFWHULVWLFV $V\PPHWU\ LQ $JJUHVVLYH %HKDYLRU $JJUHVVLYH EHKDYLRU DSSHDUV WR EH DQ LPSRUWDQW HOHPHQW RI LQLWLDO WHUULWRULDO HVWDEOLVKPHQW LQ PDQ\ ELUGV .UXLMW HW DO 5REHO :DWVRQ t 0LOOHU :DWVRQ t 0RVV f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b RI DOO LQWHUn DFWLRQV D UHVXOW WKDW GLIIHUHG VLJQLILFDQWO\ IURP WKH QXOO K\SRWKHVLV RI HTXDO GRPLQDQFH [ GI OS f

PAGE 202

,Q HQFRXQWHUV EHWZHHQ 30 DGXOW PDOHV HQFRXQWHUV ZHUH UHFRUGHG 7KH LQLWLDWRU ZRQ bf RI WKH HQFRXQWHUV ZKLOH bf ZHUH ZRQ E\ WKH UHFLSLHQW 7DEOH [ GI O Sf ,Q HQFRXQWHUV EHWZHHQ DGXOW DQG VXEDGXOW PDOHV VXEDGXOWV ORVW D GLVSURSRUWLRQDWH QXPEHU RI LQWHUDFWLRQV 7DEOH [ GI O Sf KRZHYHU WKHUH ZDV QR HYLGHQFH WKDW VXEDGXOWV DYRLGHG LQWHUDFWLRQV ZLWK DGXOWV 7KRXJK VXEDGXOWV KDG ORZ HQFRXQWHU LQLWLDWLRQ IUHTXHQFLHV WKH\ ZHUH GRPLQDQW LQ DOO QLQH HQFRXQWHUV WKDW WKH\ LQLWLDWHG 7KLV LQGLFDWHG WKDW LQLWLDWLRQ ZDV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK GRPLQDQFH VWDWXV LQGHSHQGHQW RI SOXPDJH FRORUDWLRQ 7KXV LW DSSHDUV WKDW DJJUHVVLYHQHVV RU LQLWLDWLRQ RI DQ HQFRXQWHU PD\ EH DW OHDVW DV VWURQJ D SUHGLFWRU RI VRFLDO VWDWXV DV LV SOXPDJH FRORUDWLRQ LQ 30 ,Q WKH *0 DQG &0 ODFNLQJ WKH DJHGHSHQGHQW SOXPDJH FODVVHV LQLWLDWLRQ RI HQFRXQWHUV ZDV WKH RQO\ SUHGLFWRU RI VWDWXV :KLOH REVHUYLQJ *0 HQFRXQWHUV ZHUH UHFRUGHG 7KH LQLWLDWRU ZRQ bf RI WKH HQFRXQWHUV ZKLOH bf ZHUH ZRQ E\ WKH UHFLSLHQW 7DEOH [ GI O Sf 2QO\ HQFRXQWHUV ZHUH REVHUYHG EHWZHHQ &0 7KH LQLWLDWRU ZRQ DOO RI WKHVH E\ FKDVLQJ WKH RSSRQHQW IURP WKH DUHD $V\PPHWU\ RI 6L]H DQG :HLJKW RQ 'RPLQDQFH 7KH VL]H RI D PDOH UHODWLYH WR KLV RSSRQHQW FDQ EH XVHG DV D PHDVXUH RI KLV 5+3 XVHG WKH OHQJWK RI WKH IODWWHQHG ZLQJ DV D PHDVXUH RI ERG\ VL]H %RG\ ZHLJKW DOVR ZDV

PAGE 203

7DEOH &RPSDULVRQ RI WKH 1XPEHU RI (QFRXQWHUV %HWZHHQ $GXOW 3XUSOH *UD\%UHDVWHG DQG &DULEEHDQ 0DUWLQV LQ :KLFK D %LUG 'RPLQDWHG DV D 5HVXOW RI :KHWKHU RU 1RW LW ,QLWLDWHG WKH (QFRXQWHU ,QLWDWRU 5HFHLYHU :LQV :LQV 7RWDOV 3 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ *UD\%UHDVWHG 0DUWLQ &DULEEHDQ 0DUWLQ

PAGE 204

7DEOH &RPSDULVRQ RI 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ (QFRXQWHUV LQ :KLFK D %LUG 'RPLQDWHG DV D )XQFWLRQ RI $JH DQG RI :KHWKHU LW ,QLWLDWHG WKH )LJKW $GXOW :LQV 6XEDGXOW :LQV 7RWDOV $GXOW ,QLWLDWRU 6XEDGXOW ,QLWLDWRU 7RWDOV ; GI S

PAGE 205

UHFRUGHG DOWKRXJK 6HDUF\ f IRXQG ZHLJKW LQ 5HGZLQJHG %ODFNELUGV $JHODLXV SKRHQLFHXVf WR EH D OHVV UHOLDEOH LQGH[ RI VL]H EHFDXVH RI LWV GDLO\ IOXFWXDWLRQV IRXQG QR VLJQLILFDQW UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ VL]H DQG UDQN LQ 30 RU *0 7DEOHV DQG f 7KH GDWD LQGLFDWHG WKDW KLJKUDQNLQJ PDOHV LQGLYLGXDOV ZLQQLQJ PRVW HQFRXQn WHUV VHH VHFWLRQ RQ GRPLQDQFH KLHUDUFKLHVf ZHUH QR ODUJHU WKDQ ORZ UDQNLQJ PDOHV DV PHDVXUHG E\ ZLQJ OHQJWK 30 6SHDUPDQ UV S! *0 6SHDUPDQ UV S!f /LNHZLVH QR FRUUHODWLRQ H[LVWHG EHWZHHQ ERG\ ZHLJKW DQG GRPLQDQFH 7KH ORZHVW DQG KLJKHVW UDQNLQJ PDOHV ZHUH DERXW HJXDO LQ ZHLJKW 30 6SHDUPDQ UV S! *0 6SHDUPDQ UV S!f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

PAGE 206

7DEOH &RPSDULVRQ RI 'RPLQDQFH ZLWK %RG\ :HLJKW DQG %RG\ 6L]H LQ 3XUSOH 0DUWLQV %LUG 'RPLQDQFH 5DQN :HLJKW JPVf :HLJKW 5DQN :LQJ /HQJWK PPf :LQJ /HQJWK 5DQN 5HG
PAGE 207

7DEOH &RPSDULVRQ RI 'RPLQDQFH ZLWK %RG\ :HLJKW DQG %RG\ 6L]H LQ *UD\%UHDVWHG 0DUWLQV %LUG 'RPLQDQFH 5DQN :HLJKW JPVf :HLJKW 5DQN :LQJ /HQJWK PPf :LQJ /HQJWK 5DQN 5HG *UHHQ 2UDQJH
PAGE 208

b (QFRXQWHUV b (QFRXQWHUV $ b 7ZR ELUG HQFRXQWHUV LQ WKH 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ 1  U % b 7ZR ELUG HQFRXQWHUV LQ WKH *UD\EUHDVWHG 0DUWLQ )LJXUH 1XPEHU RI HQFRXQWHUV DV D IXQFWLRQ RI WKH VH[ RI WKH ELUG

PAGE 209

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f 'LVFXVVLRQ ,W LV RQO\ UHFHQWO\ WKDW WKH HYROXWLRQ RI FRQYHQWLRQDO GLVSOD\V GXULQJ FRQWHVWV KDV EHHQ FRXFKHG LQ JHQH VHOHFWLRQ WHUPV 0D\QDUG 6PLWK f 0D\QDUG 6PLWKnV WKHRU\ RI HYROXWLRQDU\ VWDEOH VWUDWHJLHV (66Vf KDV WKURZQ OLJKW RQ WKH DGDSWLYHQHVV RI WHUULWRULDO EHKDYLRU ,Q SDUWLFXODU ILJKWLQJ VWUDWHJLHV KDYH EHHQ GHOLQHDWHG +H GHILQHG DQ (66 DV D EHKDYLRUDO SDWWHUQ WKDW ZRXOG RXWFRPSHWH DOO RWKHU EHKDYLRUDO SDWWHUQV DQG ZRXOG EH VWDEOH DJDLQVW WKH LQYDVLRQ RI DQ\ QHZ PXWDQW SDWWHUQ RI EHKDYLRU ,Q RWKHU ZRUGV DQ

PAGE 210

(66 LV D VWUDWHJ\ WKDW ZRXOG JLYH WKH KLJKHVW UHSURGXFWLYH VXFFHVV ZKHQ PRVW PHPEHUV RI D SRSXODWLRQ DGRSW LW $Q HDUO\ (66 FRQVLGHUHG D VLPSOH JHQH VHOHFWLRQ PRGHO ZKLFK LOOXVWUDWHG KRZ FRQYHQWLRQDO 'RYHf DQG HVFDODWHG +DZNf VWUDWHJLHV PLJKW VSUHDG WKURXJK DQ DQLPDO SRSXODWLRQ 0D\QDUG 6PLWK f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f WKH ZHDNHU RQH VKRXOG ZLWKGUDZ DV VRRQ DV LW DVVHVVHV WKDW LWV FKDQFHV RI ZLQQLQJ DUH ORZ &RQWLQXHG SHUVLVWHQFH RU HVFDODWLRQ LV XQOLNHO\ WR ZLQ WKH FRQWHVW ,Q PDQ\ FDVHV FHUWDLQ IHDWXUHV RI DQ RSSRQHQW SURYLGH LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW LWV 5+3 &RQWHVWDQWV FDQ XVH WKHVH IHDWXUHV WR VXUPLVH KRZ WKH\ DUH OLNHO\ WR IDUH EHIRUH JHWWLQJ LQYROYHG LQ D ILJKW 7KH EHVW FXHV WR XVH DUH WKRVH VXFK DV ERG\ VL]H DQG PRUSKRORJLFDO VWUXFWXUHV HJ KRUQV WXVNVf WKDW FRUUHODWH LQ VRPH ZD\ ZLWK 5+3 8QOLNH DUELWUDU\ FXUHV VXFK VWDWXV OLPLWHG FXHV ZLOO EH UHVLVWDQW WR FKHDWLQJ ,QGLYLGXDOV

PAGE 211

ZKR GR QRW KDYH D JHQXLQHO\ KLJK 5+3 ZLOO QRW EH DEOH WR PLPLF WKHVH KLJK VWDWXV FXHV 7KH PRVW LPSRUWDQW IDFWRUV GHWHUPLQLQJ ZKHWKHU DQ LQGLYLGXDO PDUWLQ HVWDEOLVKHG DQG UHWDLQHG D WHUULWRU\ ZHUH SOXPDJH FRORUDWLRQ ILJKWLQJ DELOLW\ DQG WHUULWRU\ RZQHUn VKLS 7KH SUHGRPLQDQW VWUDWHJ\ H[KLELWHG E\ PDUWLQV LQ GLVSXWHV DSSHDUHG WR EH WKDW RI D +DZN 0D\QDUG 6PLWK f WKRXJK 5+3 GLIIHUHQFHV DQG VWDWXV DV D WHUULWRU\ KROGHU GLG OHDG WR VRPH YDULDELOLW\ )RU H[DPSOH LQWUXGHUV WHQGHG WR HVFDODWH FRQWHVWV HDUO\ LQ WKH EUHHGLQJ VHDVRQ +HQFH WKH\ H[KLELWHG WKH 3UREHU5HWDOLDWRU SDWWHUQ ZKLFK LV SULPDULO\ RIIHQVLYH LQ QDWXUH 0D\QDUG 6PLWK KDV VLQFH FODVVLILHG LQGLYLGXDOV WKDW DGMXVW WKHLU DJRQLVWLF EHKDYLRU WR VSHFLILF UROHV DV $VVHVVRU 3OD\HUV +DPPHUVWHLQ f 7KRXJK 5+3 FDQ LQIOXHQFH WKH RXWFRPH RI DQ HQFRXQWHU ZLWKRXW DQ DVVHVVPHQW RI ILJKWLQJ DELOLW\ WKRVH LQGLYLGXDOV WKDW FDQ DVVHVV WKHLU RSSRQHQWV DUH IDYRUHG E\ VHOHFWLRQ EHFDXVH WKH\ ZLOO QRW LQFXU WKH FRVWV RI UHSHDWHG ILJKWV 6LPLODUO\ LW ZRXOG SD\ IRU LQGLYLGXDOV WR DGYHUWLVH WKHLU 5+3 7KH FRVWV RI UHSHDWHG HQFRXQWHUV GR QRW VLPSO\ LQYROYH WKH H[SHQVH RI HQHUJ\XVH 7KH\ DOVR PD\ LQYROYH LQMXU\ RU GHDWK *RVOLQJ t 3HWULH f $VVHVVPHQW QHHG QRW LQYROYH GLUHFW HVWLPDWLRQ RI DQ RSSRQHQWnV ILJKWLQJ DELOLW\ ,W FRXOG EH GRQH E\ DQ LQGLYLGXDO UHPHPEHULQJ WKH RXWFRPH RI SUHYLRXV HQFRXQWHUV LQ IORFNV :KHQ FRPSHWLWRUV GLUHFWO\ DVVHVV WKHLU RSSRQHQWV SULRU WR HQFRXQWHUV LW LV SRVVLEOH

PAGE 212

WKDW WKH\ HPSOR\ D YLVXDO FXH VXFK DV SOXPDJH FRORUDWLRQ ZKLFK PD\ EH FRUUHODWHG ZLWK DJH DQG ILJKWLQJ DELOLW\ ,Q 30 SOXPDJH FXHV DUH UHOLDEOH LQGLFDWRUV RI D ELUGnV DELOLW\ WR ZLQ DQ HQFRXQWHU DQG DUH XVHG WR HYDOXDWH DQ RSSRQHQWnV OLNHO\ VWDWXV 6LQFH 30 PD\ EH DVVLJQHG WR VH[ DQG DJH FODVVHV DQG EHFDXVH VH[ DQG DJH DUH JRRG SUHGLFWRUV RI GRPLQDQFH SOXPDJH FRORUDWLRQ PD\ EH XVHG E\ RSSRQHQWV LQ HYDOXDWLQJ SRWHQWLDO VWDWXV 7KH +DZN DQG 0RXVH SDWWHUQV 0D\QDUG 6PLWK t 3ULFH f ZHUH REVHUYHG LQ FRQWHVWV EHWZHHQ DGXOW DQG VXEDGXOW 30V $GXOWV RIWHQ HQJDJHG LQ ZDUOLNH EHKDYLRU LPPHGLDWHO\ IROORZLQJ 5+3 DVVHVVPHQW 7KH +DZN DSSHDUHG WR EH WKH IDYRUHG VWUDWHJ\ RI DGXOWV VLQFH LW JUHDWO\ VKRUWHQHG LQWHUDFWLRQ WLPH DQG WKH OLNHOLKRRG RI LQMXU\ :KHQ WKUHDWn HQHG E\ D +DZN WKH UHVSRQVH RI D VXEDGXOW ZDV WKDW RI D 0RXVH HJ UHWUHDW RU GHHVFDODWHf VLQFH WKH SUREDELOLW\ RI ZLQQLQJ ZDV ORZ DQG WKH SRWHQWLDO IRU LQMXU\ ZDV KLJK ,Q WKH 30 SOXPDJH GLIIHUHQFHV DUH XVHG DV D PHDQV IRU DVVHVVLQJ D ULYDOn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

PAGE 213

GLPLQLVKHG DFFHVV WR WKH EUHHGLQJ VLWHV 7KH (66 PD\ ZHOO EH WKDW LW LV PRUH DGYDQWDJHRXV IRU D VXERUGLQDWH WR VLJQDO VXERUGLQDQFH LI WKDW LV RQHnV VWDWXV DQ\ZD\ 7KH LQWHUDJH VWDWXVVLJQDOLQJ V\VWHP VKRXOG EHQHILW ELUGV RI ERWK SOXPDJH W\SHV E\ UHGXFLQJ WKH FRVWV RI DJJUHVVLRQ DQG LQMXU\ 8QGHU PRVW FRQGLWLRQV WKH DGYDQWDJHV RI VXFK D V\VWHP PD\ RXWn ZHLJK WKH GLVDGYDQWDJH RI VXERUGLQDQF\ IRU VXEDGXOW PDOHV :KHUH \RXQJ +DUULV 6SDUURZV ZHUH G\HG WR UHVHPEOH GRPLQDQW LQGLYLGXDOV 5RKZHU f IRXQG WKDW VXERUGLQDWH ELUGV GLG QRW ULVHfLQ UDQN EXW ZHUH FRQWLQXDOO\ DWWDFNHG E\ GRPLQDQWV $SSDUHQWO\ WKH ELUGV ZHUH DEOH WR UHFRJQL]H LQGLYLGXDOV E\ PRUH WKDQ RQH FXH 6KLHOGV f ,Q WKH 30 EHKDYLRUDO RU SRVWXUDO FXHV PD\ EH XVHG LQ DGGLWLRQ WR SOXPDJH GLIIHUHQFHV ZKHQ GHWHUPLQLQJ VRFLDO VWDWXV 6XEn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

PAGE 214

HLWKHU EHFDXVH WKH\ JDLQHG VRPH NQRZOHGJH RI WKH UHVRXUFH RU EHFDXVH RI VRPH DUELWUDU\ FULWHULRQ WKDW JLYHV RZQHUV WKH DGYDQWDJH *DPH WKHRU\ SUHGLFWV WKDW WKH FRVW RI D FRQWHVW DQG WKH SRWHQWLDO IRU LQMXU\ ZLOO EH PLQLPL]HG E\ XVLQJ 5+3 DVVHVVn PHQW 7KXV DFWXDO HVFDODWLRQ WR FRQWDFW DQG SRWHQWLDOO\ GDPDJLQJ EHKDYLRU ZLOO UDUHO\ RFFXU ,Q IDFW 3DUNHU f EHOLHYHV WKDW ZDUOLNH EHKDYLRU ZLOO RQO\ RFFXU LQ FDVHV ZKHUH 5+3 DVVHVVPHQW LV SRRU RU ZKHUH WKH YDOXH RI WKH FRQWHVWHG UHVRXUFH LV H[WUHPHO\ KLJK $OO WKUHH VSHFLHV RI PDUWLQV IUHTXHQWO\ HVFDODWHG WR SRWHQWLDOO\ GDPDJLQJ EHKDYLRU ZKLOH FRPSHWLQJ IRU EUHHGLQJ WHUULWRULHV 7KLV UHIOHFWV WKH IDYRUHG XVH RI WKH +DZN VWUDWHJ\ E\ DGXOW PDOHV XQGHU FLUFXPVWDQFHV GLVFXVVHG HDUOLHU 3HUKDSV WHUULWRU\ VSDFH LV VXFK D YDOXDEOH UHVRXUFH WKDW LW PD\ EH ZRUWK WKH LQWUXGHUn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

PAGE 215

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f IRXQG WKDW 3LHG :DJWDLO 0RWDFLOOD DOEDf WHUULWRU\ RZQHUV KDYH NQRZOHGJH RI WKH EHVW IHHGLQJ SDWFKHV LQ D WHUULWRU\ DQG WKDW WKH\ V\VWHPDWLFDOO\ H[SORLW WKHP WR DOORZ IRU UHVRXUFH UHQHZDO $Q LQWUXGHU ODQGLQJ LQ D WHUULWRU\ KDV QR VXFK NQRZOHGJH DQG IHHGV DW D ORZHU UDWH ,Q PDUWLQV NQRZOHGJH RI ORFDO IHHGLQJ DUHDV DQG SUHGDWRUV PD\ LQFUHDVH WKH UHVRXUFH YDOXH RI D WHUULWRU\ WR DQ RZQHU 6XFK NQRZOHGJH DOVR PD\ H[SODLQ ZK\ DQ RZQHU FDQ HYLFW DQ LQWUXGHU

PAGE 216

8QFRUUHODWHG $V\PPHWULHV 7KH WKLUG W\SH RI DV\PPHWU\ LQYROYHV QHLWKHU 5+3 QRU UHVRXUFH YDOXH GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ RSSRQHQWV ,W PD\ SD\ FRQWHVWDQWV WR VHWWOH D GLVSXWH DUELWUDULO\ HYHQ LI WKHUH DUH QR SRWHQWLDOO\ KLJK FRVWV RI HVFDODWHG ILJKWV (YLGHQFH WKDW RZQHUVKLS ULJKWV FRXOG EH LPSRUWDQW LQ WHUULWRULDO HQFRXQWHUV ZDV REWDLQHG E\ 'DYLHV f ZKR GHPRQVWUDWHG WKDW PDOH VSHFNOHG ZRRG EXWWHUIOLHV 3DUDUJH DHJHULDf XVH D VLPSOH UXOH WR VHWWOH WKHLU FRQWHVWV IRU RZQHUVKLS RI WHUULWRULHV RZQHUV DOZD\V UHWDLQ WKH WHUULn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n WRULHV ZHUH RI KLJK YDOXH WR PDUWLQ PDOHV VLQFH WKH\ XOWLn PDWHO\ LQFUHDVHG WKH SUREDELOLW\ RI REWDLQLQJ IHPDOHV 7KXV LW LV XQOLNHO\ WKDW FRQWHVWV ZLOO EH VHWWOHG E\ XQFRUUHODWHG DV\PPHWULHV IRU DQ\ DQLPDO ZKHUH WKH FKDQFH RI ILQGLQJ DQ DOWHUQDWLYH WHUULWRU\ LV ORZ ,QFUHDVHG HQHUJ\ LQYHVWPHQW DQG ULVN ZLOO EH WKH FRVW RI GRPLQDQFH WKDW PDOHV PXVW LQFXU WR JDLQ WKH FRPSHWLWLYH DGYDQWDJH RI DFFHVV WR EUHHGLQJ WHUULWRULHV

PAGE 217

'20,1$1&( 326,7,21 ,QWURGXFWLRQ 6RFLDO KLHUDUFK\ LV VLPLODU WR WHUULWRULDOLW\ LQ WKDW LW SURYLGHV WKH VXFFHVVIXO FRPSHWLWRU ZLWK SUHIHUHQWLDO DFFHVV WR OLPLWHG UHVRXUFHV VXFK DV PDWHV RU IRRG ,W ODFNV WKH VSDFH FRPSRQHQW KRZHYHU DQG LQVWHDG LQYROYHV WKH HVWDEOLVKPHQW RI D SHFNLQJ RUGHU RU GRPLQDQFH KLHUDUFK\ &KDVH f ,Q WKHRU\ WKH HVWDEOLVKPHQW RI D GRPLQDQFH KLHUDUFK\ HOLPLQDWHV WKH HQHUJ\ DQG WLPH LQYHVWPHQWV UHTXLUHG LQ IUHTXHQW GLVSXWHV RYHU OLPLWHG UHVRXUFHV 7ZR PDMRU W\SHV RI GRPLQDQWVXERUGLQDQW EHKDYLRU ZLWKLQ ELUG JURXSV KDYH EHHQ UHFRJQL]HG 6PLWK f 7KH OLQn HDU W\SH LV D UHODWLRQVKLS ZKHUH WKH GHVSRW LV UDUHO\ GHIHDWHG WKH VHFRQG ELUG LV GRPLQDWHG RQO\ E\ WKH GHVSRW DQG VR RQ WR WKH PRVW VXERUGLQDWH LQGLYLGXDO &ROOLQV DQG 7DEHU *ODV 0DUOHU 3DUVRQV t %DSWLVWD 5RKZHU 6DELQH 6FKMHOGHUXS(EEH 7RUGRII f 7KH VHFRQG W\SH RI KLHUDUFK\ LV FDOOHG QRQOLQHDU EHFDXVH WKH WRS ELUG LV WKH LQGLYLGXDO ZKR ZLQV WKH JUHDWHVW QXPEHU RI HQFRXQWHUV EXW WKH RXWFRPH RI DQ\ ILJKW LV QRW DOZD\V SUHGLFWDEOH *RIRUWK t %DVNHWW 0DVXUH DQG $OOHH f

PAGE 218

'XULQJ WKLV VWXG\ 30V DQG *0V IRUPHG OLQHDU GRPLQDQFH KLHUDUFKLHV DZD\ IURP WKH QHVWLQJ VLWHV DQG QRQOLQHDU KLHUDUFKLHV DW WKH EUHHGLQJ VLWHV 7KLV LV DQ LQGLFDWLRQ WKDW GRPLQDQFH LV VLWHUHODWHG 7DEOHV f 7KLV PHDQW WKDW WKH RXWFRPH RI HQFRXQWHUV ZDV GHSHQGHQW RQ WKH ORFDWLRQ DW ZKLFK WKH HQFRXQWHUV WRRN SODFH )RU H[DPSOH D GRPLQDQW ELUG FRXOG EH GHIHDWHG E\ D ORZHU UDQNLQJ ELUG ZKHQ WKH HQFRXQWHU WRRN SODFH LQ IURQW RI WKH QHVW KROH RI WKH VXERUGLQDWH +RZHYHU WKH SURSRUWLRQ RI HQFRXQWHUV ZRQ E\ WKH GRPLQDQW ELUG ZDV VWLOO KLJK )LHOG GHPRQVWUDWLRQV RI VLWHUHODWHG GRPLQDQFH ZLWKLQ DYLDQ VSHFLHV DUH UDUH %URZQ f GHPRQVWUDWHG WKH OLQN EHWZHHQ WHUULWRULDO EHKDYLRU DQG VRFLDO GRPLQDQFH LQ D ZLQWHULQJ SRSXODWLRQ RI 6WHOOHUnV -D\ &\DQRFLWWD VWHOOHULf +H IRXQG WKDW WKH GRPLQDQFH UDQN RI HDFK LQGLYLGXDO DW D VHHG SLOH ZDV GLUHFWO\ UHODWHG WR WKH GLVWDQFH RI WKH VHHG SLOH IURP WKH QHVW DUHD RI WKDW LQGLYLGXDO :LOOLV f QRWHG VLPLODU SDWWHUQV RI GRPLQDQFH LQ WKH %LFRORUHG $QWELUG *\PQRSLWK\V ELFRORUf 'DWD $QDO\VLV 'XULQJ WKH ILYH \HDUV RI WKLV VWXG\ VHYHQ KLHUDUFKLHV ZHUH GHWHUPLQHG IRU WKH VWXG\ DUHDV DQG PDWULFHV ZHUH FRQVWUXFWHG IRU HDFK KLHUDUFKLDO JURXS 1HDUO\ LQWHUDFWLRQV ZHUH GRFXPHQWHG 7DEOHV DQG VKRZ WZR VXFK KLHUDUFKLHV EHWZHHQ 30 PDOHV DW WKH *DLQHVYLOOH &RXQWU\ &OXE LQ 7DEOHV DQG VKRZ *0 PDOHV ZKR ZHUH

PAGE 219

7DEOH 1XPEHU RI 6XSSODQWLQJV DW WKH 1HVW 6LWHV %HWZHHQ 3XUSOH 0DUWLQV DW WKH *DLQHVYLOOH &RXQWU\ &OXE f 1 /26(5 5HG
PAGE 220

7DEOH 1XPEHU RI 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ 6XSSODQWLQJV 7DNLQJ 3ODFH 2WKHU 7KDQ LQ )URQW RI WKH 1HVW 1 +ROH L H DW 7HOHSKRQH :LUHV &RORQ\ 5RRI7RS 7HOHYLVLRQ $QWHQQDV :,11(5 /26(5 5HG
PAGE 221

7DEOH 1XPEHU RI 6XSSODQWLQJV 2EVHUYHG DW WKH 1HVW 6LWHV %HWZHHQ *UD\%UHDVWHG 0DUWLQV DW 3RLQWHD3LHUUH f 1 /26(5 5HG *UHHQ 2UDQJH
PAGE 222

7DEOH 1XPEHU RI *UD\%UHDVWHG 0DUWLQ 6XSSODQWLQJV 7DNLQJ 3ODFH 2WKHU 7KDQ LQ WKH 7HUULWRULHV RI WKH 3XPSKRXVH %LUGV LH DW *XDUG 5DLOV 3LSHV 5RRI7RS 1 :,11(5 7RWDO 7RWDO 7RWDO b /26(5 5HG *UHHQ 2UDQJH
PAGE 223

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f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

PAGE 224

VXSSODQWLQJV REVHUYHG IRU HDFK RI WKH PDOH PDUWLQV LQ IURQW RI DQG DZD\ IURP WKH EUHHGLQJ VLWHV $ QRQOLQHDU KLHUDUFK\ H[LVWHG DW WKH PXOWLURRP KRXVHV EHFDXVH VXERUGLQDWH LQGLn YLGXDOV GLG QRW DOZD\V DFFHSW D VXEPLVVLYH UROH LQ IURQW RI WKHLU EUHHGLQJ URRP 6XERUGLQDWHV ZRXOG WKUHDWHQ DQG DWWDFN D KLJKHU UDQNLQJ LQGLYLGXDO ZKR WULHG WR DVVHUW LWV GRPLn QDQFH LQ D VXERUGLQDWHnV EUHHGLQJ WHUULWRU\ $ VXERUGLQDWH ELUG UHYHDOHG D FRQVLVWHQW VXERUGLQDWH SRVLWLRQ RQO\ ZKHQ ELUGV ZHUH RQ WKH URRI RI WKH PXOWLURRP KRXVH RQ WHOHSKRQH ZLUHV DQG RQ WKH URRI WRSV RI ORFDO KRPHV 7KH OHDVW GRPLQDQW ELUGV 2UDQJH 6XEDGXOW *UHHQ DQG 8QPDUNHG 6XEDGXOWf EHKDYHG LQ ZD\V WKDW PLQLPL]HG WKH SRVVLELOLW\ RI SURYRNLQJ DQ DWWDFN IURP RWKHU GRPLQDQW QHLJKERUV 7KH\ DYRLGHG RULHQWLQJ WKH KHDG WRZDUG WKH PRUH GRPLQDQW ELUG DQG IUHTXHQWO\ IOXIIHG WKH SOXPDJH LQGLFDWLQJ VWD\ EHKDYLRU ,Q DGGLWLRQ PDOHV SHUFKHG RXWVLGH WKHLU QHVW URRPV HQWHUHG D URRP ZKHQ D KLJKHU UDQNLQJ PDOH DUULYHG EXW QRW ZKHQ D ORZHU UDQNLQJ PDOH DUULYHG 7DEOH [ GI O Sf %LUGV LQ DGMDFHQW URRPV DW WKH PXOWLURRP KRXVH WHQGHG WR EH LQYROYHG LQ PRUH HQFRXQWHUV ZLWK HDFK RWKHU WKDQ ZLWK WKRVH WKDW ZHUH QRW DGMDFHQW QHLJKERUV )LJXUH 30 U GI Sf $IWHU WKH GRPLQDQFH KLHUDUFK\ KDG EHHQ HVWDEOLVKHG LQ WKH ILUVW PRQWK WKH DPRXQW RI DJJUHVVLRQ DW WKH KRXVH ZDV PDUNHGO\ UHGXFHG )LJXUH f

PAGE 225

7DEOH $ &RPSDULVRQ %HWZHHQ :KHWKHU /RZHU5DQNLQJ 0DOHV (QWHUHG IURQWHG 7KHLU 1HVW +ROHV E\ D +LJK5DQNLQJ 0RUH 2IWHQ :KHQ 0DOH &RQ 0DOH (QWHUV 1HVW+ROH 0DOH 5HPDLQV 2XWVLGH 7RWDOV $UULYDO RI PRUH GRPLQDQW PDOH f D f $UULYDO RI OHVV FRPLQDQW PDOH f f 7RWDOV ([SHFWHG IUHTXHQFHV LQVLGH SDUHQWKHVHV ; GI S

PAGE 226

1R RI HQFRXQWHUV 1R RI HQFRXQWHUV 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ W *DLQHVYLOOH &RXQWU\ &OXE 1 V f U W W W 'LVWDQFH EHWZHHQ QHVWKROHV FPf 'LVWDQFH EHWZHHQ QHVWKROHV Pf )LJXUH )UHTXHQF\ RI SDUWLFLSDWLRQ LQ HQFRXQWHUV DV D IXQFWLRQ RI WKH GLVWDQFH EHWZHHQ QHVWKROHV

PAGE 227

1R RI 6XSSODQWLQJr )HE 0DUFK $SULO 0D\ -XQH )LJXUH 1XPEHU RI VXSSODQWLQJV DW D 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ PXOWLURRP KRXVH GXULQJ WKH EUHHGLQJ VHDVRQ

PAGE 228

*UD\%UHDVWHG 0DUWLQ (DUO\ LQ WKH EUHHGLQJ VHDVRQ FHUWDLQ PDOHV ZHUH GRPLQDQW DQG KDG SULRULW\ RI DFFHVV WR DQ\ SODFH LQ WKH EUHHGLQJ DUHD DW WKH 3XPSKRXVH 7KLV KLHUDUFK\ EHJDQ WR VKLIW RQO\ ZLWK WKH HVWDEOLVKPHQW RI QHVWLQJ WHUULWRULHV 7KH EHKDYLRU RI HDFK PDOH DW WKH 3XPSKRXVH WKHQ GHSHQGHG RQ WKH SODFH ZKHUH WKH HQFRXQWHU RFFXUUHG 7DEOHV DQG f /LNH WKH 30 WKH GRPLQDQFH UHODWLRQVKLSV RI WKH *0 PDOHV DW WKH QHVWLQJ VLWH ZHUH QRQOLQHDU $ UHODWLYH GRPLQDQFH KLHUDUFK\ H[LVWHG LQ ZKLFK ELUG $ DOWKRXJK GRPLQDQW RYHU % RFFDVLRQDOO\ ORVW ILJKWV WR PDOH % LQ %nV WHUULWRU\ $W WKH 3XPSKRXVH PDOHV 5HG DQG *UHHQ FRQVLVWHQWO\ RFFXSLHG WKH KLJKHVW SRVLWLRQV 7KH\ ZRQ WKH PRVW HQFRXQn WHUV DQG KDG WKH IHZHVW GHIHDWV RI DOO LQGLYLGXDOV VWXGLHG 5HG PDOH WKH ILUVW ELUG WR HVWDEOLVK D WHUULWRU\ DW WKH 3XPSKRXVH ZDV SDUWLFXODUO\ LQWROHUDQW RI LQWUXGHUV +H GLYLGHG KLV WLPH HTXDOO\ EHWZHHQ FKDVLQJ DQG ORDILQJ DW WKH QHVW FDYLW\ )HPDOH PDUWLQV ZHUH WKH RQO\ LQGLYLGXDOV H[HPSW IURP D 5HG PDOHnV DJJUHVVLRQ ZLWKLQ KLV WHUULWRU\ *UHHQ PDOH UDQNHG VHFRQG LQ WKH KLHUDUFK\ 7KRXJK *UHHQ PDOH FKDVHG 5HG PDOH Q f ZKHQ 5HG ZDV RXWVLGH KLV WHUULWRU\ 5HG ZRQ DOO VXSSODQWLQJV ZLWK *UHHQ ZKHWKHU WKH LQWHUDFWLRQ WRRN SODFH LQVLGH RU RXWVLGH *UHHQ PDOHnV EUHHGLQJ WHUULWRU\ $V ZLWK 30V WKH IUHTXHQF\ RI SDUWLFLn SDWLRQ LQ *0 HQFRXQWHUV ZDV GLUHFWO\ UHODWHG WR WKH GLVWDQFH EHWZHHQ ELUGV )LJXUH *0 U GI Sf 7KH

PAGE 229

VSDWLDO DUUDQJHPHQW RI WKH QHVW FDYLWLHV DW WKH 3XPSKRXVH SURPRWHG WUHVSDVVLQJ EXW PDOHV FRQVLVWHQWO\ DYRLGHG WUHVn SDVVLQJ E\ WDNLQJ FLUFXLWRXV IOLJKW SDWKV LQVWHDG RI WKH PRUH GLUHFW URXWH WR WKHLU QHVWLQJ FDYLW\ 0RUHRYHU DIWHU WKH GRPLQDQFH KLHUDUFK\ KDG EHHQ HVWDEOLVKHG DW WKH 3XPSn KRXVH WKH DPRXQW RI DJJUHVVLRQ ZDV UHGXFHG GXH WR QHVWLQJ DFWLYLWLHV )LJXUH f 5DQN LQ WKH +LHUDUFK\ ,Q WKH SUHYLRXV VHFWLRQ RQ WHUULWRULDOLW\ 30 DQG *0 VXFFHVV LQ WHUULWRU\ HVWDEOLVKPHQW ZDV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK DJHUHODWHG SOXPDJH FKDUDFWHULVWLFV UHVLGHQF\ DQG DJJUHVn VLYHQHVV 6XFFHVVIXO PDOHV LQLWLDWHG DQG ZRQ PRVW HQFRXQWHUV 7DEOHV DQG VKRZ WKH UDQN RI HDFK LQGLn YLGXDO DV GHWHUPLQHG E\ WKH UHODWLYH QXPEHU RI VXFFHVVIXO ZLQV LQ IURQW RI DQG DZD\ IURP WKH EUHHGLQJ VLWH +RZHYHU WKLV DUUDQJHPHQW UHSUHVHQWHG RQO\ DQ DSSUR[LPDWLRQ 'RPLn QDQFH FRXOG QRW EH GHWHUPLQHG EHWZHHQ WZR LQGLYLGXDOV LI WKH\ QHYHU HQFRXQWHUHG HDFK RWKHU RU LI WKH\ ZRQ QHDUO\ WKH VDPH QXPEHU RI HQFRXQWHUV 7KXV PHDVXUHG WKH UHODWLYH DJJUHVVLYHQHVV RI HDFK ELUG ZDV PHDVXUHG E\ WDEXODWLQJ WKH QXPEHU RI HQFRXQWHUV ZRQ E\ HDFK LQGLYLGXDO DV D SHUFHQWDJH RI WKH WRWDO QXPEHU RI HQFRXQWHUV UHFRUGHG 7DEOHV DQG VKRZ WKDW WKH GHJUHH RI DVVRFLDWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH WZR PHDVXUHV RI GRPLQDQFH UDQN LQ WKH KLHUDUFK\ DQG SURSRUWLRQ RI LQWHUDFWLRQV LQLWLDWHG DQG ZRQf ZDV KLJK )RU H[DPSOH 5HG PDOHV DW WKH *DLQHVYLOOH &RXQWU\ &OXE FRORQ\ DQG DW WKH

PAGE 230

)LJXUH 1XPEHU RI VXSSODQWLQJV DW WKH *UD\EUHDVWHG 0DUWLQ QHVW DUHD GXULQJ WKH EUHHGLQJ VHDVRQ

PAGE 231

7DEOH 7KH 'HJUHH RI $VVRFLDWLRQ DW WKH 1HVW 6LWHV %HWZHHQ 7ZR 0HDVXUHV RI 'RPLQDQFH LQ WKH 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ 5DQN LQ WKH +LHUDUFK\ DQG 1XPEHU RI ,QWHUDFWLRQV ,QLWLDWHG DQG :RQ 1XPEHU f LV WKH 5DQN LQ WKH +LHUDUFK\ 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ 0DOHV 5DQN LQ +LHUDUFK\ (QFRXQWHUV ,QLWLDWHG :RQ (QFRXQWHUV ,QLWLDWHG /RVW 7RWDO (QFRXQWHUV ,QLWLDWHG 5HG b f f
PAGE 232

7DEOH 7KH 'HJUHH RI $VVRFLDWLRQ DW WKH 1HVW 6LWHV %HWZHHQ 7ZR 0HDVXUHV RI 'RPLQDQFH LQ WKH *UD\%UHDVWHG 0DUWLQ 5DQN LQ WKH +LHUDUFK\ DQG 1XPEHU RI ,QWHUDFWLRQV ,QLWLDWHG DQG :RQ 1XPEHU f LV WKH 5DQN LQ WKH +LHUDUFK\ *UD\%UHDVWHG 0DUWLQ 0DOHV 5DQN LQ +LHUDUFK\ (QFRXQWHUV ,QLWLDWHG :RQ (QFRXQWHUV ,QLWLDWHG /RVW 7RWDO (QFRXQWHUV ,QLWLDWHG 5HG b f f *UHHQ b f f 2UDQJH b f f
PAGE 233

3XPSKRXVH ZHUH DJJUHVVLYH LQ WKH VHQVH WKDW WKH\ XVXDOO\ LQLWLDWHG HQFRXQWHUV ZKLFK WKH\ ZRQ 7KRXJK WKH GRPLQDQFH KLHUDUFK\ ZDV HVWDEOLVKHG E\ VXSSODQWLQJ DQG WKUHDW LW ZDV PDLQWDLQHG SULPDULO\ E\ WKUHDW GLVSOD\V GXULQJ WKH UHVW RI WKH EUHHGLQJ VHDVRQ REVHUYHG QR UHDO FKDQJH LQ WKH VWUXFWXUH RI WKH 30 DQG *0 KLHUDUFKLHV DIWHU HJJV KDG EHHQ ODLG 'LVFXVVLRQ 6RFLDO LQWHUDFWLRQV LQ 3URJQH 6ZDOORZV ZHUH EDVHG XSRQ WKH PHFKDQLVP RI WHUULWRULDOLW\ 7HUULWRULDOLW\ LV DVVRFLn DWHG ZLWK WKH GHIHQFH RI D FULWLFDO UHVRXUFH ZKLFK LQ WKHVH ELUGV ZDV D QHVWLQJ VLWH 7KLV ZDV FRPSOLFDWHG E\ WKH IDFW WKDW WKH 30 DQG *0 DOVR H[KLELWHG VRFLDO LQWHUDFWLRQV EDVHG RQ D GRPLQDQFH KLHUDUFK\ ,I ZLQQLQJ DQ HQFRXQWHU ZDV GXH WR KDYLQJ D WHUULWRU\ WKHQ HDFK RI WKH ELUGV VKRXOG KDYH EHHQ GRPLQDQW WR DOO RWKHUV LQ WKH DUHD DERXW WKHLU QHVW VLWH 7KH GDWD VKRZHG WKDW ZLQQLQJ DQ HQFRXQWHU LQFUHDVHG LQ IURQW RI RQHnV QHVW KROH +RZHYHU ZLQQLQJ WKH HQFRXQWHU ZDV QRW JXDUDQWHHG DV GRPLQDQWV VWLOO FKDOOHQJHG VXERUGLn QDWHV LQ WKH VXERUGLQDWHVn WHUULWRULHV 7KXV WKH RXWFRPH RI DQ HQFRXQWHU EHWZHHQ LQGLYLGXDOV ZDV VLWHGHSHQGHQW EXW QRW DEVROXWH 7KHVH GDWD DUH YDOXDEOH LQ GHPRQVWUDWLQJ WKH QHFHVVLW\ RI FRQVLGHULQJ RWKHU ZD\V WR GHVFULEH YDULDWLRQV LQ GRPLQDQFHRUJDQL]HG JURXSV ,Q WKH 30 DQG *0 WHUULWRULHV DQG GRPLQDQFH KLHUDUFKLHV FDQ EH VHHQ WR JUDGH LQWR HDFK

PAGE 234

RWKHU UDWKHU WKDQ WR H[LVW DV DEVROXWH DOWHUQDWLYHV 7KHUHIRUH WKH UHVXOWDQW UDQNLQJ VKRXOG QRW EH FDOOHG D KLHUDUFK\ ,QVWHDG LW UHSUHVHQWV D VRFLDO VWDQGLQJ WKDW KDV VLJQLILFDQFH WR WKH ELUGV DW WKHLU UHVSHFWLYH EUHHGLQJ DUHD 7KH SKUDVH VRFLDO VWDQGLQJ UHFRJQL]HV WKH URXJK UDQNLQJ WKDW H[LVWV DPRQJ WKH ELUGV ZLWKRXW LPSO\LQJ WKH OHYHO RI VWUXFWXUH WKDW LV XVXDOO\ DWWDFKHG WR KLHUDUFK\

PAGE 235

&21&/86,216 7KH FRUQHUVWRQH RI VRFLDO EHKDYLRU LV FRPPXQLFDWLRQ .UHEV t 'DYLHV f +LJKO\ VRFLDO DQLPDOV WHQG WR HPSOR\ FRPSOH[ VLJQDOOLQJ V\VWHPV 'DZNLQV t .UHEV f 1RW VXUSULVLQJO\ WKH WKUHH VSHFLHV RI VZDOORZV VWXGLHG H[KLELWHG D IDLUO\ ULFK UHSHUWRLUH RI YLVXDO DQG YRFDO VLJQDOV DQG WKH\ FRPPXQLFDWHG DOPRVW FRQVWDQWO\ ZLWK RQH DQRWKHU EHOLHYH WKDW LW LV XVHIXO WR GLYLGH WKH VLJQDOV XVHG E\ PDUWLQV LQWR WZR FDWHJRULHV RQ WKH EDVLV RI WKHLU PHDQLQJ WR WKH VLJQDOHU f DWWHQGDQW VLJQDOV DQG f SXUSRVLYH VLJQDOV $WWHQGDQW VLJQDOV DUH FXHV SURYLGHG E\ DQ LQGLn YLGXDO ZKR LV QRW GLUHFWLQJ LWV DWWHQWLRQ WRZDUG D UHFHLYHU $Q H[DPSOH RI VXFK D VLJQDO LV WKH DSSHDUDQFH HJ SOXPDJH YDULDWLRQf RI D KLJKUDQNLQJ ELUG WR IORFNPDWHV RI ORZHU UDQN 7KH VLJQLILFDQFH RI SOXPDJH FRORU YDULDWLRQ DPRQJ LQGLYLGXDOV LV WKDW LW DQQRXQFHV D ELUGnV VRFLDO VWDWXV 7KLV LPSOLHV WKDW WKH QXPEHU RI ILJKWV WKDW DFWXDOO\ WDNH SODFH LQ DJRQLVWLF LQWHUDFWLRQV ZLOO EH UHGXFHG VLQFH WKH DQWDJRQLVWV FDQ DVVHVV HDFK RWKHUnV ILJKWLQJ DELOLW\ 6LJQDOOLQJ RQHnV VRFLDO VWDWXV FRXOG EH DGDSWLYH HVSHFLDOO\ HDUO\ LQ WKH EUHHGLQJ VHDVRQ ZKHQ D KLJK SUREDELOLW\ H[LVWV

PAGE 236

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f DQG /RUHQ] f VXJJHVWHG WKDW WKH EULOOLDQW FRORUV RI UHHI ILVKHV LQ KLJKO\ FRQVSLFXRXV SDWWHUQV DGYHUWLVH WKH SUHVHQFH RI WKH LQGLYLGXn DO DQG VR IDFLOLWDWH PXWXDO DYRLGDQFH DQG VSDFLQJ $WWHQn GDQW FXHV WKHUHIRUH DUH WKH PRVW VXEWOH W\SHV RI VLJQDOV XVHG E\ PDUWLQV DQG RWKHU DQLPDO VSHFLHV DV DQ LPSRUWDQW IRUP RI FRPPXQLFDWLRQ 3XUSRVLYH VLJQDOV DUH GLVSOD\V LQ WKH FODVVLFDO VHQVH WKH\ DUH SRVWXUHV PRYHPHQWV DQG YRFDOL]DWLRQV WKDW KDYH WKH VSHFLILF SXUSRVH RI LQIOXHQFLQJ WKH EHKDYLRU RI DQRWKHU LQGLYLGXDO ,QGLYLGXDOV TXLFNO\ UHFRJQL]H HYHQ WKH HDUOLHVW VHJPHQWV RI WKUHDW RU ZLWKGUDZ GLVSOD\V DQG UHVSRQG DSSURn SULDWHO\ WR WKH EHKDYLRU $ VXERUGLQDWH PDUWLQ RIWHQ EHJDQ WR HVFDSH ZLWKLQ VHF RI D VLJQDOHUnV ILUVW PRYH DQG D GRPLQDQW ELUG XVXDOO\ VWRSSHG DQ DSSURDFK VRRQ DIWHU WKH UHFHLYHU FRPPHQFHG WR ZLWKGUDZ :KHQ UHVSRQGHG WR

PAGE 237

DSSURSULDWHO\ VXFK GLVSOD\V REYLDWH WKH QHFHVVLW\ IRU SK\VLFDO DWWDFN +\SRWKHWLFDOO\ WKH PDUWLQVn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n HQFH RI VWURQJ FRPSHWLWLRQ IRXQG WKDW ORZHUUDQNLQJ ELUGV GLG QRW DYRLG ELUGV RI KLJKHU UDQN 'RPLQDQWV WKHQ HQIRUFHG RU DWWHPSWHG WR HQIRUFH WKHLU LQGLYLGXDO GLVWDQFHV 7KXV EHOLHYH LW LV SULPDULO\ WKH EHKDYLRU RI VXERUGLQDWH ELUGV WKDW FRQWUROOHG WKH RSHUDWLRQ RI WKH VRFLDO V\VWHP LQ EUHHGLQJ PDUWLQV )UHTXHQW XVH RI SXUSRVLYH VLJQDOV VXFK

PAGE 238

DV WKH +HDG )RUZDUG 7KUXVW RU /XQJH GLVSOD\V HDUO\ LQ WKH EUHHGLQJ VHDVRQ VXSSRUWHG WKH LGHD WKDW QHVW VLWHV ZHUH VFDUFH DQG WKDW ELUGV ZHUH UHODWLYHO\ XQIDPLOLDU ZLWK RQH DQRWKHU $QRWKHU LPSRUWDQW DVSHFW RI WKLV VWXG\ ZDV WKDW PRVW YLVXDO DQG YRFDO GLVSOD\V ZHUH XVHG LQ D YDULHW\ RI FRQn WH[WV ,Q WKLV VWXG\ IRU H[DPSOH WKH PHDQLQJ RI D 30 &KRUWOH FDOO GHSHQGHG RQ WKH FRQWH[W LQ ZKLFK LW ZDV JLYHQ 7R D PDOH ZKR ZDV D SRWHQWLDO LQWUXGHU LW VLJQLILHG D WKUHDW WR DQ XQPDWHG IHPDOH LW PHDQW WKH SUHVHQFH RI D SRWHQWLDO PDWH $V VWXGLHV RI FRPSOHWH GLVSOD\ UHSHUWRLUHV DFFXPXODWH LW LV EHFRPLQJ HYLGHQW WKDW WKH FRQFHSW RI HYHU\ GLVSOD\ SRVVHVVLQJ D VLQJOH SUHFLVH PHDQLQJ HJ WKUHDW GLVn SOD\f LV QRW XSKHOG LQ PRVW FDVHV 6PLWK f 6PLWK f DQG 0R\QLKDQ f IRXQG WKDW PRVW VSHFLHV KDYH UHSHUWRLUHV RI WR GLVSOD\V (YROXWLRQDU\ SUHVVXUHV UHODWHG WR WKH LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI VLPLODU GLVSOD\V DQG SUREOHPV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK YHU\ UDUH GLVSOD\V PD\ UHVWULFW WKH WRWDO VL]H RI GLVSOD\ UHSHUWRLUHV 0R\QLKDQ f $OO WKUHH VSHFLHV RI PDUWLQV VWXGLHG IDOO LQ WKH ORZHU OLPLW RI WKLV UHSHUWRLUH UDQJH ZLWK DERXW GLVSOD\V HDFK 7KHUHIRUH VHOHFWLRQ PD\ IDYRU GLVSOD\V WKDW HQFRGH UDWKHU JHQHUDO PHVVDJHV WKDW FDQ EH LQWHUSUHWHG LQ YDULRXV ZD\V GHSHQGLQJ RQ WKH UHFLSLHQW DQG RQ FRQWH[WXDO LQIRUPDn WLRQ 0\ ILQGLQJV RQ PDUWLQV ZHUH FOHDUO\ LQ DFFRUG ZLWK WKLV VXJJHVWLRQ 0RVW GLVSOD\V ZHUH UHFRUGHG LQ VXFK D

PAGE 239

YDULHW\ RI VLWXDWLRQV WKDW LW ZDV GLIILFXOW WR H[WUDFW IHDWXUHV WKDW ZHUH FRPPRQ WR DOO WKHLU XVDJHV $V D UHVXOW WKH PHVVDJHV WKDW DVFHUWDLQHG ZHUH YHU\ EURDG ZLWK WKH PRVW FRPPRQ EHLQJ RQH UHODWHG WR WKH SUREDELOLW\ RI ORFRPRn WLRQ 7KLV PHVVDJH KDV EHHQ UHSRUWHG WR EH SDUWLFXODUO\ FRPPRQ LQ WKH UHSHUWRLUHV RI RWKHU DQLPDO VSHFLHV DV ZHOO &DU\O 5LHFKHUW 6PLWK f VXJJHVW WKDW EHFDXVH WKH QXPEHU RI GLVSOD\V WKDW FDQ EH XVHG E\ DQ LQGLYLGXDO LV OLPLWHG WKH H[WHQVLYH GHSHQGHQFH RI GLVSOD\ FRPPXQLFDWLRQ RQ FRQWH[WXDO VRXUFHV FUHDWHV YHU\ VWURQJ VHOHFWLRQ SUHVVXUHV WR HYROYH WKH PHDQV E\ ZKLFK D VLJQDOHU FRQWUROV VRPH RI WKHVH VRXUFHV 7KH VXUHVW FRQWURO FRPHV ZKHQ WKH VLJQDOHU SURYLGHV FRQWH[WXDO VRXUFHV LWVHOI WKURXJK EDGJHV SOXPDJH FRORU YDULDWLRQf DQG WKURXJK SHUIRUPLQJ LWV GLVSOD\V LQ FRPELQDWLRQV WKDW DFW DV VRXUFHV RI FRQWH[W IRU HDFK RWKHU )RU LQVWDQFH E\ VXVWDLQLQJ RU UHSHDWLQJ WKH SHUIRUPDQFH RI RQH GLVSOD\ LW FDQ PDNH D FRQWLQXRXV EDFNJURXQG RI LQIRUPDWLRQ DYDLODEOH DJDLQVW ZKLFK WKH SHUIRUPDQFH RI D UDUHU GLVSOD\ FDQ EH HYDOXDWHG 0RVW GLVSOD\V LQ D ELUGnV UHSHUWRLUH ZHUH XVHG LQ PDOHPDOH LQWHUDFWLRQV 7KLV VXJJHVWV WKDW WKH SUHQHVWLQJ SHULRG ZKLFK LV ZKHQ PRVW PDOHPDOH LQWHUDFWLRQV RFFXUUHG LQYROYHG WKH WLPH ZKHQ FRPSHWLQJ PDOHV ZHUH DVVHVVLQJ HDFK RWKHU 7KHUHIRUH D PDMRU SRUWLRQ RI WKH VSDFH LQ WKH OLPLWHG WRWDO UHSHUWRLUH KDV EHHQ DOORWWHG E\ QDWXUDO VHOHFWLRQ WR WKLV LPSRUWDQW EHKDYLRUDO WDVN 7KLV LGHD ZDV

PAGE 240

VXSSRUWHG E\ WKH KLJK LQWHUDFWLRQV GXULQJ WKH SUHQHVWLQJ SHULRG LQ FRPSDULVRQ WR EHKDYLRUDO DFWLYLWLHV DIWHU IHPDOHV ZHUH LQFXEDWLQJ 'LIIHUHQW NLQGV RI GLVSOD\V JLYHQ WR LQWUXGHUV VLJn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t 3DUNHU f 7KHVH DQDO\VHV VXJJHVW WKDW WKH PRVW VWDEOH VWUDWHJ\ LV IRU FRQWHVWDQWV WR FRQFHDO WKHLU DWWDFN WHQGHQF\ XQWLO WKH ODVW SRVVLEOH PRPHQW VLQFH DQ\ LQIRUPDn WLRQ DERXW IXWXUH EHKDYLRU FRXOG EH H[SORLWHG E\ WKH RSSRn QHQW 7KLV DVVHVVPHQW KRZHYHU GRHV QRW DSSO\ WR PDUWLQ WHUULWRULDO FRQWHVWV EHFDXVH RI WKH VLJQDO JUDGLHQW H[KLELWHG 7KH PDMRULW\ RI PDUWLQ FRQWHVWV LQ WKLV VWXG\ ZHUH DV\PPHWULF 2SSRQHQWV ZHUH RQO\ UDUHO\ HTXDOO\ PDWFKHG LQWHUPV RI ILJKWLQJ DELOLW\ RU LQ KRZ JUHDWO\ WKH\ YDOXHG WKH FRQWHVWHG QHVW VLWH EHOLHYH WKDW WKH H[LVn WHQFH RI FRQWHVW DV\PPHWULHV WHQGV WR SURGXFH VHOHFWLRQ LQ IDYRU RI LQGLYLGXDOV ZKR DUH FDSDEOH RI HVWLPDWLQJ WKHLU RZQ SUREDELOLW\ RI ZLQQLQJ FRQWHVWV E\ ILUVW DVVHVVLQJ DQ

PAGE 241

RSSRQHQWnV VWUHQJWK UHODWLYH WR WKHLU RZQ %HFDXVH ILJKWLQJ LV SRWHQWLDOO\ GDQJHURXV RSSRQHQWV DUH H[SHFWHG WR XVH WKH TXDOLW\ DQG YLJRU RI HDFK RWKHUnV GLVSOD\V DV WKH EDVLV IRU PDNLQJ WKLV DVVHVVPHQW ,Q VXPPDU\ WKH FRPPXQLFDWLYH HIIHFWLYHQHVV RI WKH JHQHUDOL]HG PHVVDJHV HQFRGHG E\ PDUWLQ GLVSOD\V PXVW GHSHQG XSRQ WKH FODVV RI UHFLSLHQW HJ DGXOW PDOHf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

PAGE 242

/,7(5$785( &,7(' $OFRFN $QLPDO EHKDYLRU $Q HYROXWLRQDU\ DSSURDFK 6XQGHUODQG 0DVV 6LQDXHU $VVRFLDWHV $OOHQ 5: DQG 00 1LFH $ VWXG\ RI WKH EUHHGLQJ ELRORJ\ RI WKH 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ 3URJQH VXELVf $P 0LGL 1DW $OWPDQQ 2EVHUYDWLRQDO VWXG\ RI EHKDYLRU 6DPSOLQJ PHWKRGV %HKDYLRU $QGHUVVRQ 0 6RFLDO EHKDYLRU DQG FRPPXQLFDWLRQ LQ WKH *UHDW 6NXD %HKDYLRU $QGHUVVRQ 0 :K\ DUH WKHUH VR PDQ\ WKUHDW GLVSOD\V" 7KHRU %LRO $QGUHZ 57KH DJJUHVVLYH DQG FRXUWVKLS EHKDYLRU RI FHUWDLQ HPEHUL]LQHV %HKDYLRU $QGUHZ 5(YROXWLRQ RI IDFLDO H[SUHVVLRQV 6FLHQFH $QGUHZ 5,QIRUPDWLRQ SRWHQWLDOO\ DYDLODEOH LQ PDPPDOLDQ GLDOHFWV ,Q 1RQYHUEDO FRPPXQLFDWLRQ HG 5$ +LQGHf &DPEULGJH &DPEULGJH 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV $PHULFDQ 2UQLWKRORJLVWVn 8QLRQ &RPPLWWHH &KHFNOLVW RI 1RUWK $PHULFDQ ELUGV WK HG %DOWLPRUH $PHULFDQ 2UQLWKRORJLVWVn 8QLRQ $PHULFDQ 2UQLWKRORJLVWVn 8QLRQ &KHFNOLVW RI 1RUWK $PHULFDQ ELUGV WK HG %DOWLPRUH $PHULFDQ 2UQLWKRORJLVWVn 8QLRQ $UPVWURQJ ($ %LUG GLVSOD\ DQG EHKDYLRU 1HZ
PAGE 243

%DNHU 55 DQG *$ 3DUNHU 7KH HYROXWLRQ RI ELUG FRORXUDWLRQ 3KLO 7UDQV 5 6RF % %DOSK 0+ :LQWHU VRFLDO EHKDYLRU RI GDUNH\HG MXQFRV &RPPXQLFDWLRQ VRFLDO RUJDQL]DWLRQ DQG HFRORJLFDO LPSOLFDWLRQV $PLQ %HKDY %DUORZ *: (WKRORJLFDO XQLWV RI EHKDYLRU ,Q 7KH FHQWUDO QHUYRXV V\VWHP DQG ILVK EHKDYLRU HG ,QJOHf &KLFDJR 8QLYHUVLW\ RI &KLFDJR 3UHVV %DUORZ *: &RPSHWLWLRQ EHWZHHQ FRORU PRUSKV RI WKH SRO\FKURPDWLF 0LGDV &LFKOLG &LFKODVRPD FLWULQHOOXPf 6FLHQFH %DUORZ *: 0RGDO $FWLRQ 3DWWHUQV ,Q +RZ DQLPDOV FRPPXQLFDWH HG 7$ 6HEHRNf %ORRPLQJWRQ 8QLY ,QGLDQD3UHVV %HHEH : *, +DUWOH\ DQG 3* +RZH 7URSLFDO ZLOGOLIH LQ %ULWLVK *XLDQD =RRO &RQWU 7URSLFDO 5HVHDUFK 6WDW 1HZ
PAGE 244

%OXUWRQ-RQHV 1* 2EVHUYDWLRQV DQG H[SHULPHQWV RQ FDXVDWLRQ RI WKUHDW GLVSOD\V RI WKH *UHDW 7LW 3DUXV PDMRUf $QLP %HKDY 0RQRJU B %RQGHVVRQ 3 DQG /, 'DYLV 6RXQG DQDO\VLV ZLWKLQ ELRORJLFDO DFRXVWLFV 1DWXUD -XWODQGLFD %RXJKH\ 0 DQG 16 7KRPSVRQ 6SHFLHV VSHFLILFLW\ DQG LQGLYLGXDO YDULDWLRQV LQ VRQJV RI WKH %URZQ WKUDVKHU 7R[RVWRPD UXIXPf DQG &DWELUG 'XPHWHOOD FDUROLQHVLVf %HKDYLRU B %UDGOH\ 5$ 9RFDO DQG WHUULWRULDO EHKDYLRU LQ WKH :KLWHH\HG 9LUHR 9LUHR JULVHXVf :LOVRQ %XOO %URFNPDQQ +7KH IXQFWLRQ RI SRVWHUFRORUDWLRQ LQ WKH %HDXJUHJRU\ (XSRPDFHQWUXV OHXFRVWLFWXV 3RPDFHQWULGDH 3LVFHVf = IXU 7LHUSV\FKRO %URFNZD\ %) 6WLPXODWLRQ RI RYDULDQ GHYHORSPHQW DQG HJJ OD\LQJ E\ PDOH FRXUWVKLS YRFDOL]DWLRQ LQ %XGJHULJDUV 0HORSVLWWDFXV XQGXODWXVf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n ILFDWLRQ DQG SRVWIOHGJLQJ QHVW GHIHQVH %XOO 7H[DV 2UQLWKRO 6RF %URZQ &5 D 7HUULWRULDOLW\ LQ WKH 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ :LOVRQ %XOO

PAGE 245

%URZQ &5 E &KLFN UHFRJQLWLRQ LQ 3XUSOH 0DUWLQV 3DVVHULIRUPHV +LUXQGLQLGDHf 6RXWKZHVWHUQ 1DW %URZQ &5 6OHHSLQJ EHKDYLRU RI 3XUSOH 0DUWLQV &RQGRU %URZQ &5 /LJKWEUHDVWHG 3XUSOH 0DUWLQV GRPLQDWH GDUNEUHDVWHG ELUGV LQ D URRVW ,PSOLFDWLRQV IRU IHPDOH PLPLFU\ $XN %URZQ &5 DQG (%LWWHUEDXP ,PSOLFDWLRQV RI MXYHQLOH KDUUDVVPHQW LQ 3XUSOH 0DUWLQV :LOVRQ %XOO B %URZQ -/ $JJUHVVLYHQHVV GRPLQDQFH DQG VRFLDO RUJDQL]DWLRQ LQ WKH 6WHOOHU -D\ &RQGRU %URZQ -/ 7KH HYROXWLRQ RI GLYHUVLW\ LQ DYLDQ WHUULWRULDO V\VWHPV :LOVRQ %XOO %URZQ -/ 7KH HYROXWLRQ RI EHKDYLRU 1HZ
PAGE 246

&OXWWRQ%URFN 7+ DQG 6' $OERQ 7KH URDULQJ RI UHG GHHU DQG WKH HYROXWLRQ RI KRQHVW DGYHUWLVHPHQW %HKDYLRU &XOOHQ -0 5HGXFWLRQ RI DPELJXLW\ WKURXJK ULWXDOL ]DWLRQ 3KLO 7UDQV 5R\ 6RF % &XOOHQ -0 6RPH SULQFLSOH RI DQLPDO FRPPXQLFDWLRQ ,Q 1RQYHUEDO FRPPXQLFDWLRQ HG 5$ +LQGHf /RQGRQ &DPEULGJH 8QLY 3UHVV &XULR ( 7KH DGDSWLYH VLJQLILFDQFH RI DYLDQ PREn ELQJ 7HOHRQRPLF K\SRWKHVHV DQG SUHGLFWLRQV = IXU 7LHUSV\FKRO 'DDQMH $ 2Q ORFRPRWRU\ PRYHPHQWV LQ ELUGV DQG WKH LQWHQWLRQ PRYHPHQWV GHULYHG IURP WKHP %HKDYLRU 'DQH % DQG : YDQ GHU .ORRW $Q DQDO\VLV RI WKH GLVSOD\ RI WKH JROGHQH\H GXFN %XFHSKDOD FODQTXODf %HKDYLRU 'DQH % & :DOFRWW DQG :+ 'UXU\ 7KH IRUP DQG GXUDWLRQ RI WKH GLVSOD\ DFWLRQV RI WKH JROGHQH\H %XFHSKDOD FODQJXODf %HKDYLRU 'DUZLQ & 7KH H[SUHVVLRQ RI WKH HPRWLRQV LQ PDQ DQG DQLPDOV &KLFDJR 8QLYHUVLW\ RI &KLFDJR 3UHVV 'DYLHV 1% )RRG IORFNLQJ DQG WHUULWRULDO EHKDYLRU RI WKH SLHG ZDJWDLO 0RWDFLOOD DOED \DUUHOOLLf LQ ZLQWHU $QLP (FRO 'DYLHV 1% 7HUULWRULDO GHIHQFH LQ WKH VSHFNOHG ZRRG EXWWHUIO\ 3DUDUJH DHJHULDf 7KH UHVLGHQW DOZD\V ZLQV $QLP %HKDY 'DZNLQV 5 7KH VHOILVK JHQH 2[IRUG 2[IRUG 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV 'DZNLQV 5 7KH H[WHQGHG SKHQRW\SH 6DQ )UDQFLVFR )UHHPDQ 'DZNLQV 5 DQG 0 'DZNLQV 'HFLVLRQV DQG WKH XQFHUWDLQW\ RI EHKDYLRU %HKDYLRU f 'DZNLQV 5 DQG -5 .UHEV $QLPDO VLJQDOV ,QIRUPDWLRQ RU PDQLSXODWLRQ" ,Q %HKDYLRXUDO HFRORJ\ HG E\ -5 .UHEV DQG 1% 'DYLHVf 2[IRUG %ODFNZHOO

PAGE 247

'DZNLQV 5 DQG -5 .UHEV $QLPDO VLJQDOV 0LQGUHDGLQJ DQG PDQLSXODWLRQ ,Q %HKDYLRXUDO HFRORJ\ HG E\ -5 .UHEV DQG 1% 'DYLHVf 2[IRUG %ODFNZHOO 'HDJ -0 $JJUHVVLRQ DQG VXEPLVVLRQ RQ PRQNH\ VRFLHWLHV $QLP %HKDY 'HOLXV -' $JRQLVWLF EHKDYLRU RI MXYHQLOH JXOOV D QHXURHWKRORJLFDO VWXG\ $QLP %HKDY 'LOJHU :& 7KH FRPSDUDWLYH HWKRORJ\ RI WKH $IULFDQ SDUURW JHQXV $JDSRUQLVf = IXU 7LHUSV\FKRO 'LQJOH + $ VWDWLVWLFDO DQG LQIRUPDWLRQ DQDO\VLV RI DJJUHVVLYH FRPPXQLFDWLRQ LQ WKH PDQWLV VKULPS *RQRGDFW\OXV EUHGLQL 0DQQLQJf $QLP %HKDY  'XQKDP ': $JRQLVWLF EHKDYLRU LQ FDSWLYH 5RVHn EUHDVWHG *URVEHDNV 3KHXFWLFXV OXGRYLFLDQXVf %HKDYLRU a '\UF] $ %UHHGLQJ ELRORJ\ RI WKH 0DQJURYH 6ZDOORZ 7DFK\FLQHWD DOELOLQHD DQG WKH *UH\EUHDVWHG 0DUWLQ 3URJH FKDO\EHD DW %DUUR &RORUDGR ,VODQG 3DQDPD ,ELV (LEO(LEHVIHOGW (WKRORJ\ 7KH ELRORJ\ RI EHKDYLRU QG HG 1HZ
PAGE 248

)LFNHQ 5: 06 )LFNHQ DQG -3 +DLOPDQ 'LIIHUn HQWLDO DJJUHVVLRQ LQ JHQHWLFDOO\ GLIIHUHQW PRUSKV RI WKH :KLWHWKURDWHG 6SDUURZ =RQRWULFKLD DOELFROOLVf = 7LHUSV\FKRO e )LFNHQ 5: $ YDQ 7LHQKRYHQ 06 )LFNHQ DQG )& 6LEOH\ (IIHFW RI YLVXDO DQG YRFDO VWLPXOL RQ EUHHGLQJ LQ WKH %XGJHULJDU 0HORSVLWWDFXV XQGXODWXVf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f 2[IRUG %ODFNZHOO *UHHQEHUJ 1 $ QHXURHWKRORJLFDO VWXG\ RI GLVSOD\ EHKDYLRU LQ WKH OL]DUG $QROLV FDUROLQHQVLV 5HSWLOLD /DFHUWLOLD ,JXDQLGDHf $P =RRO *UHHQEHUJ 1 &HQWUDO DQG DXWRQRPLF DVSHFWV RI DJJUHVVLRQ DQG GRPLQDQFH LQ UHSWLOHV ,Q $GYDQFHV LQ YHUWHEUDWH QHXURHWKRORJ\ HG E\ -3 (ZHUW 55 &DSUDQLFD DQG ',QJOHf 1HZ
PAGE 249

+DLOPDQ -3 2SWLFDO VLJQDOV $QLPDO FRPPXQLFDWLRQ DQG OLJKW %ORRPLQJWRQ ,QGLDQD 8QLY 3UHVV +DPPHUVWHLQ 3 7KH UROH RI DV\PPHWULHV LQ DQLPDO FRQWHVWV $QLP %HKDY +DQG /+ $ FRPSDULVRQ RI YRFDOL]DWLRQV RI :HVWHUQ *XOOV /DUXV RFFLGHQWDOLV RFFLGHQWDOLV DQG /AB /LYHQVf &RQGRU e +DUWVKRUQH & 7KH PRQRWRQ\ WKUHVKROG LQ VLQJLQJ ELUGV $XN +DUWVKRUQH & %RUQ WR VLQJ %ORRPLQJWRQ ,1GLDQD 8QLY 3UHVV +D]OHWW %$ 5LWXDOL]DWLRQ LQ PDULQH &UXVWDFHD ,Q %HKDYLRU RI PDULQH DQLPDOV HG E\ +( :LQQ DQG %/ 2OODf 1HZ
PAGE 250

+X[OH\ -6 &RXUWVKLS DFWLYLWLHV LQ WKH UHG WKURDWHG GLYHU &RO\PEXV VWHOODWXV 3RQWRSSf WRJHWKHU ZLWK D GLVFXVVLRQ RQ WKH HYROXWLRQ RI FRXUWVKLS LQ ELUGV /LQQ 6RF +X[OH\ -6 5LWXDOL]DWLRQ RI EHKDYLRU LQ DQLPDOV DQG PDQ 7UDQV 5R\DO 6RF /RQGRQ ,VKLL 6 (QGRFULQH FRQWURO RI DJJUHVVLYH EHKDYLRU LQ PDOH DQG IHPDOH -DSDQHVH TXDLO ,Q $QLPDO EHKDYLRU 1HXURSK\VLRORJLFDO DQG HWKRORJLFDO DSSURDFKHV HG E\ $RNL 6 ,VKLL DQG + 0RULWDf 7RN\R -DSDQ 6FLHQWLILF 6RFLHWLHV 3UHVV -DFNVRQ -$ DQG 7DWH -U $Q DQDO\VLV RI QHVW ER[ XVH E\ 3XUSOH 0DUWLQV +RXVH 6SDUURZV DQG 6WDUOLQJV LQ HDVWHUQ 1RUWK $PHULFD :LOVRQ %XOO -RKQVWRQ 5* )XQFWLRQ RI FU\SWLF ZKLWH LQ WKH :KLWHQHFNHG 5DYHQ $XN -RKQVWRQ 5) DQG -: +DUG\ %HKDYLRU RI WKH 3XUSOH 0DUWLQ :LOVRQ %XOO .DXIPDQQ -+ DQG $UOHHQ % .DXIPDQQ 6RFLDO RUJDQL]DWLRQ RI ZKLSWDLO ZDOODELHV 0DFURSXV SDUULf %XOO RI WKH (FRO 6RF RI $PHU fA .ORSIHU 3+ DQG -+DWFK ([SHULPHQWDO FRQVLGn HUDWLRQV ,Q $QLPDO FRPPXQLFDWLRQ HG 7$ 6HERHNf %ORRPLQJWRQ ,QGLDQD 8QLY 3UHVV .QXGVHQ (, 6RXQG ORFDOL]DWLRQV LQ ELUGV ,Q &RPSDUDWLYH VWXGLHV RI KHDULQJ LQ YHUWHEUDWHV 3RSSHU $1 DQG 35 )D\ HGVf 1HZ
PAGE 251

/HKUPDQ '6 $ FULWLTXH RI .RQUDG /RUHQ]nV WKHRU\ RI LQVWLQFWLYH EHKDYLRU 4XDUWHUO\ 5HYLHZ RI %LRO /HKUPDQ '6 6HPDQWLF DQG FRQFHSWXDO LVVXHV LQ WKH QDWXUHQXWXUH SUREOHP ,Q 'HYHORSPHQW DQG HYROXWLRQ RI EHKDYLRU HG E\ /. $URQVRQ ( 7REDFK '6 /HKUPDQ DQG -6 5RVHQEODWWf 6DQ )UDQFLVFR :+ )UHHPDQ /RUHQ] 9HUJOHLFKHQGH %HZHJXQJVVWXGLHQ DQ $QDWLQHQ 2UQLWKRO (UJDQ]XQJVEDQG /RUHQ] 7KH FRPSDUDWLYH PHWKRG RI VWXG\LQJ LQQDWH EHKDYLRU SDWWHUQV 6\PSRVLD RI WKH 6RFLHW\ IRU ([SHULn PHQWDO %LRORJ\ B /RUHQ] .LQJ 6RORPRQnV ULQJ 1HZ
PAGE 252

0DUOHU 3 7RQDO TXDOLWLHV RI ELUG VRXQGV S ,Q %LUG YRFDOL]DWLRQV +LQGH 5$ HGf &DPEULGJH &DPEULGJH 8QLY 3UHVV 0DUOHU 3 DQG 0 7DPXUD 6RQJ GLDOHFWV LQ WKUHH SRSXODWLRQV RI :KLWHFURZQHG 6SDUURZV &RQGRU B 0DUOHU 3 DQG 6 3HWHUV 6HOHFWLYH YRFDO OHDUQLQJ LQ D VSDUURZ 6FLHQFH 0DUWHQ DQG 3 0DUOHU 6RXQG WUDQVPLVVLRQ DQG LWV VLJQLILFDQFH IRU DQLPDO YRFDOL]DWLRQ 7HPSHUDn WXUH KDELWDWV %HKDY (FRO 6RFLRELRO A 0DUWHQ 4XLQH DQG 3 0DUOHU 6RXQG WUDQVn PLVVLRQ DQG LWV VLJQLILFDQFH IRU DQLPDO YRFDOL]DWLRQ ,, 7URSLFDO IRUHVW KDELWDWV %HKDY (FRO 6RFLRELRO f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f &DPEULGJH 3XEOLFDWLRQV RI WKH 1XWWDOO 2UQLWKRn ORJLFDO &OXE 1R 0F%ULGH ,3 3DUHU DQG ) )RHQDQGHU 7KH VRFLDO RUJDQL]DWLRQ DQG EHKDYLRU RI WKH IHUDO GRPHVWLF IRZO $QLP %HKDY 0RQR

PAGE 253

0F&OHHU\ 5+ 2SWLPDO EHKDYLRXUDO VHTXHQFHV DQG GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ ,Q %HKDYLRXUDO HFRORJ\ DQ HYROXn WLRQDU\ DSSURDFK HG E\ -5 .UHEV DQG 1% 'DYLHVf 2[IRUG %ODFNZHOO 0F)DUODQG ')HHGEDFN PHFKDQLVPV LQ DQLPDO EHKDYLRU /RQGRQ $FDGHPLF 3UHVV 0F)DUODQG ''HFLVLRQ PDNLQJ LQ DQLPDOV 1DWXUH 0F)DUODQG 'DQG $, +RXVWRQ 4XDQWLWDWLYH HWKRORJ\ 7KH VWDWH VSDFH DSSURDFK /RQGRQ 3LWPDQ 0F.LQQH\ ) 7KH FRPIRUW PRYHPHQWV RI $QDWLGDH %HKDYLRXU 0F.LQQH\ ) 7KH HYROXWLRQ RI GXFN GLVSOD\V ,Q )XQFWLRQ DQG HYROXWLRQ LQ EHKDYLRU HG E\ %DHUHQGV & %HHU DQG $ 0DQQLQJf 2[IRUG &ODUHQGRQ 3UHVV 0LOOHU $+ + )ULHGPDQQ / *ULVFRP DQG 57 0RRUH 'LVWULEXWLRQDO FKHFNOLVW RI WKH ELUGV RI 0H[LFR 3DUW 3DFLILF &RDVW $YLIDXQD 1R 0LOOHU (+ 7KH VWUXFWXUH RI DHULDO GLVSOD\V LQ WKUHH VSHFLHV RI &DOLGULGLQDH 6FRORSDHLGDHf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f DQG UHODWHG VSHFLHV %HKDYLRXU 6XSSO B

PAGE 254

0R\QLKDQ 0 &RQWURO VXSSUHVVLRQ GHFD\ GLVDSSHDUn DQFH DQG UHSODFHPHQW RI GLVSOD\V 7KHRU %LRO 1LOHV '0 'HWHUPLQLQJ DJH DQG VH[ RI 3XUSOH 0DUWLQV %LUG%DQGLQJ 1REOH *. 'RPLQDQFH LQ WKH VRFLDO OLIH RI ELUGV $XN 1XHFKWHUOHLQ */ DQG 5: 6WRUHU 7KH SDLU IRUPDWLRQ GLVSOD\V RI WKH :HVWHUQ *UHEH &RQGRU f 1XHFKWHUOHLQ */ DQG 5: 6WRUHU $JJUHVVLYH EHKDYLRU DQG LQWHUVSHFLILF NLOOLQJ E\ IO\LQJ 6WUHDPHU 'XFNV LQ $UJHQWLQD &RQGRU 1XJHQW '3 $ EHKDYLRUDO DQDO\VLV RI FRPPXQLFDWLRQ DPRQJ )UDQNOLQnV 6SUXFH *URXVH GXULQJ WKH EUHHGLQJ VHDVRQ 06F WKHVLV (GPRQWRQ 8QLY RI $OEHUWD 3DUNHU *$ $VVHVVPHQW VWUDWHJ\ DQG WKH HYROXWLRQ RI ILJKWLQJ EHKDYLRXU 7KHRU %LRO 3DUNHU *$ 6HDUFKLQJ IRU PDWHV ,Q %HKDYLRUDO HFRORJ\ $Q HYROXWLRQDU\ DSSURDFK HG E\ -5 .UHEV DQG 1% 'DYLHVf 2[IRUG %ODFNZHOO 3DUNHU *$ DQG ', 5XEHQVWHLQ 5ROH DVVHVVPHQW UHVHUYH VWUDWHJ\ DQG DFTXLVLWLRQ RI LQIRUPDWLRQ LQ DV\PPHWULF DQLPDO FRQIOLFWV $QLP %HKDY 3DUVRQV DQG /) %DSWLVWD &URZQ FRORU DQG GRPLQDQFH LQ WKH :KLWHFURZQHG 6SDUURZ $XN B 3HWHUV -/ &KHFNOLVW RI ELUGV RI WKH ZRUOG 9RO &DPEULGJH +DUYDUG 8QLY 3UHVV 3KLOOLSV $5 /D DFUHFHQFLD GH HUURUHV DFHUFD GH OD RUQLWKRORJLFD GH 0H[LFR FRQ QRWDV VREUH 0\LDUFKXV $QDOHV GHO ,QVWLWXWR GH %LRORJD 3RVW : DQG -6 *UHHQODZ 6HDVLGH 6SDUURZ GLVn SOD\V 7KHLU IXQFWLRQ LQ VRFLDO RUJDQL]DWLRQ DQG KDELWDW $XN 5LFKDUGV '* $OHUWLQJ DQG PHVVDJH FRPSRQHQWV LQ VRQJV RI 5XIRXVVLGHG 7RZKHHV %HKDYLRXU 5LFKPRQG 60 7KH DWWUDFWLRQ RI 3XUSOH 0DUWLQV WR DQ XUEDQ ORFDWLRQ LQ :HVWHUQ 2UHJRQ &RQGRU

PAGE 255

5LGJHZD\ 5 7KH ELUGV RI 1RUWK DQG 0LGGOH $PHULFD %XOO 86 1DWO 0XV 1R 3W 5LHFKHUW 6 *DPHV VSLGHUV SOD\ ,OO &XHV XQGHUn O\LQJ FRQWH[WDVVRFLDWHG FKDQJHV LQ DJRQLVWLF EHKDYLRU $QLP %HKDY 5REELQV 0% 7KH 'LVSOD\ UHSHUWRLUH RI WKH %DQGn WDLOHG PDQDNLQ 3LSUD IDVFLLFDXGDf :LOVRQ %XOO n a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nV &ROOHJH 6RFLRELRORJ\ *URXSf &DPEULGJH &DPEULGJH 8QLY 3UHVV 5XVVHOO :06 $3 0HDG DQG -6 +D\HV $ EDVLV IRU WKH TXDQWLWDWLYH VWXG\ RI WKH VWUXFWXUH RI EHKDYLRXU %HKDYLRXU A 6DELQH :6 'RPLQDQFH LQ ZLQWHU IORFNV RI MXQFRV DQG WUHH VSDUURZV 3K\VLRO =RRO 6DELQH :6 7KH ZLQWHU VRFLHW\ RI WKH 2UHJRQ -XQFR 7KH IORFN &RQGRU 6DELQH :6 ,QWHJUDWLQJ PHFKDQLVPV RI ZLQWHU IORFNV RI MXQFRV &RQGRU 6DELQH :6 7KH ZLQWHU VRFLHW\ RI WKH 2UHJRQ MXQFR ,QWROHUDQFH GRPLQDQFH DQG WKH SHFNLQJ RUGHU &RQGRU

PAGE 256

6DGH '6 &XVKLQJ 'XQDLI $ )LJXHURD -5 .DSODQ /DXHU & 5KRGHV DQG 6FKQHLGHU 3RSXn ODWLRQ G\QDPLFV LQ UHODWLRQ WR VRFLDO VWUXFWXUH RQ &D\R 6DQWLDJR
PAGE 257

6PLWK :7KH EHKDYLRU RI FRPPXQLFDWLQJ &DPEULGJH +DUYDUG 8QLY 3UHVV 6WDPSV -$ DQG *: %DUORZ 9DULDWLRQ DQG VWHUHRW\S\ LQ WKH GLVSOD\V RI $QROLV JHQHXV 6DXULQ ,JXDQLGDHf %HKDYLRXU 6WRNHV $: D $JRQLVWLF EHKDYLRU DPRQJ %OXH 7LWV DW D ZLQWHU IHHGLQJ VWDWLRQ %HKDYLRXU 6WRNHV $: E 7KH FRPSDUDWLYH HWKRORJ\ RI JUHDW EOXH PDUVK DQG FRDO WLWV DW D ZLQWHU IHHGLQJ VWDWLRQ %HKDYLRXU 6WRXW -) $JJUHVVLYH FRPPXQLFDWLRQ E\ /DUXV JODXFHVFHQV 'HVFULSWLRQV RI WKH GLVSOD\V UHODWHG WR WHUULWRULDO SURWHFWLRQ %HKDYLRXU 6WUXKVDNHU 77 6RFLDO VWUXFWXUH DPRQJ YHUYHW PRQNH\V &HURSLWKHFXV DHWKLRSVf %HKDYLRXU 7RUGRII +% 6RFLDO RUJDQL]DWLRQ LQ D IORFN RI FDSWLYH QRQEUHHGLQJ 5HG &URVVELOOV &RQGRU 7LQEHUJHQ 1 'HULYHG DFWLYLWLHV" WKHLU FDXVDWLRQ ELRORJLFDO VLJQLILFDQFH RULJLQ DQG HPDQFLSDWLRQ GXULQJ HYROXWLRQ 4XDUW 5HY %LRO 7LQEHUJHQ 1 &RPSDUDWLYH VWXGLHV RQ WKH EHKDYLRXU RI JXOOV /DULGDHf $ SURJUHVV UHSRUW %HKDYLRXU 7LQEHUJHQ 1 7KH DQLPDO LQ LWV ZRUOG YROVf &DPEULGJH +DUYDUG 8QLY 3UHVV 9DQ 5KLMQ -* &RPPXQLFDWLRQ E\ DJRQLVWLF GLVSOD\V $ GLVFXVVLRQ %HKDYLRXU :DWVRQ $ DQG *5 0LOOHU 7HUULWRU\ VL]H DQG DJJUHVVLRQ LQ D IOXFWXDWLQJ UHG JURXVH SRSXODWLRQ $QLP (FRO :DWVRQ $ DQG 5 0RVV 'RPLQDQFH VSDFLQJ EHKDYLRU DQG DJJUHVVLRQ LQ UHODWLRQ WR SRSXODWLRQ OLPLWDWLRQ LQ YHUWHEUDWHV ,Q $QLPDO SRSXODWLRQV LQ UHODWLRQ WR WKHLU IRRG UHVRXUFHV HG $ :DWVRQf 2[IRUG %ODFNZHOO :LFNOHU : 6RFLRVH[XDO VLJQDOV DQG WKHLU LQWUDn VSHFLILF LPLWDWLRQ DPRQJ SULPDWHV ,Q 3ULPDWH HWKRORJ\ (VVD\V RQ WKH VRFLRVH[XDO EHKDYLRU RI DSHV DQG PRQNH\V HG 0RUULVf *DUGHQ &LW\ 1HZ
PAGE 258

:LOH\ 5+ 7KH VWUXW GLVSOD\ RI PDOH 6DJH *URXVH $ IL[HG DFWLRQ SDWWHUQ %HKDYLRXU :LOH\ 5+ 7KH HYROXWLRQ RI FRPPXQLFDWLRQ ,QIRUn PDWLRQ DQG PDQLSXODWLRQ ,Q &RPPXQLFDWLRQ $QLPDO EHKDYLRXU 9RO f HG E\ 75 +DOOLGD\ DQG 3-% 6ODWHUf 2[IRUG %ODFNZHOO :LOH\ 5+ DQG '* 5LFKDUGV 3K\VLFDO FRQVWUDLQWV RQ DFRXVWLF FRPPXQLFDWLRQ LQ WKH DWPRVSKHUH ,PSOLFDn WLRQV IRU WKH HYROXWLRQ RI DQLPDO YRFDOL]DWLRQV %HKDY (FRO DQG 6RFLR J :LOOLV (2 7KH EHKDYLRU RI %LFRORUHG $QWELUGV 8QLYHUVLW\ RI &DOLIRUQLD 3XEOLFDWLRQV LQ =RRORJ\ :LOOLV (2 B 7KH EHKDYLRU RI 3ODLQEURZQ :RRG FUHHSHUV 'HQGURFLQFOD IXOLJLQRVDf :LOVRQ %XOO :LOVRQ (2 7KH LQVHFW VRFLHWLHV &DPEULGJH %HONQDS 3UHVV :LOVRQ (2 6RFLRELRORJ\ &DPEULGJH +DUYDUG 8QLY 3UHVV :LWWHQEHUJHU -) $QLPDO VRFLDO EHKDYLRU %RVWRQ 'X[EXU\ 3UHVV =DKDYL $ 5LWXDOL]DWLRQ DQG WKH HYROXWLRQ RI PRYHPHQW VLJQDOV %HKDYLRXU =DKDYL $ 7KH SDWWHUQ RI YRFDO VLJQDOV DQG WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ WKH\ FRQYH\ %HKDYLRXU =LPPHU -7 6WXGLHV RI 3HUXYLDQ %LUGV 1HZ
PAGE 259

%,2*5$3+,&$/ 6.(7&+ (ULN -RVKXD %LWWHUEDXP ZDV ERUQ RQ 'HFHPEHU LQ 1HZ
PAGE 260

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8A U &ROORSMA Mn 3URIHVVRU RI )RUHVW DQG &RQVHUYDWLRQ 0LFKDHO : $VVLVWDQW 5HVRXUFHV

PAGE 261

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

PAGE 262

81,9(56,7< 2) )/25,'$


THE COMPARATIVE BEHAVIOR OF THREE
SPECIES OF SWALLOWS (genus Progne)
BY
ERIK JOSHUA BITTERBAUM
A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL
OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN
PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS
FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY
UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
1986

This dissertation is dedicated to Dr. John William Hardy,
mentor and friend.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
I extend my thanks to all my friends at the Florida
State Museum for making my stay there such a memorable one.
I also wish to thank my friends in the Department of Zoology
of the University of Florida for their help, especially
Drs. Peter Feinsinger, Martha Crump, John Kaufmann, and
Frank Nordlie. I thank Dr. J.W. Hardy, who suggested the
problem, and for his interest and guidance throughout the
course of this study. I am deeply indebted to Dr. Jane
Brockmann for advice and discussion on the project design
and for her valuable suggestions on the manuscript.
Drs. Thomas Emmel, Michael Collopy, and Jonathan Reiskind
read drafts of the manuscript and offered important
criticisms and comments. Drs. Charles Brown and Jeffrey Cox
accompanied me in the field and provided fruitful discussion
of my material. I am indebted to Drs. Joe Wampler and Bob
Bryan of Nebraska Wesleyan University for their considerable
advice on statistical procedures.
I would like to thank Richard ffrench and his family
for all the courtesies extended to me during my stay at
their home in Trinidad. Special thanks are extended to
Texaco Incorporated for granting me permission to study the
Gray-breasted Martin at their oil refinery in Trinidad. The
iii

field work was made considerably easier by the help and
hospitality of Mr. Richard Rothenberg, Mr. Hector Garcia,
Ms. Sarah Sloane, Ms. Rebecca Dellinger, Dr. Tom Webber,
Dr. James Cohen, and Dr. Eugene Morton. I owe a real debt
to many other friends, too numerous to list, who gave me
their unfailing faith and encouragement in difficult periods
during the research and writing that culminated in this
manuscript.
Financial support was made possible by grants from the
Chapman Memorial Fund of the American Museum of Natural
History, the Florida State Museum, the Department of Zoology
of the University of Florida, the Smithsonian Institution,
and Joseph and Evelyn Bitterbaum. Travel funds were provide
by the Society of the Sigma Xi.
Last, but not least, I wish to thank my wife Ellen H.
Burton. Her patience, encouragement, delightful companion¬
ship, and assistance in editing the manuscript made the
completion of this study possible.
IV

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS iii
LIST OF TABLES viii
LIST OF FIGURES xi
ABSTRACT xvi
INTRODUCTION 1
Ritualization 2
How Signals Originate 4
The Information Hypothesis 9
The Manipulation Hypothesis 11
The Honesty Hypothesis 13
Predictions 14
TAXONOMY AND DISTRIBUTION OF MARTINS 16
METHODS 18
Study Areas 18
Materials 19
Description of Behavioral Techniques 21
Criteria for Recognizing Display Units 24
TERMINOLOGY 2 8
Vocal Displays 28
Visual Displays 29
VISUAL COMMUNICATION 32
Stereotypy of Behavior Patterns 33
Discussion 42
Description of Visual Displays 46
Head Forward Thrust 4 8
Gaping 53
Bill-Snapping . 55
Lunge 55
v

Page
High-Up Displays 56
Claiming-Reclaiming 60
White Badge Signal 62
Fighting 63
Analysis of Visual Communication 68
Sequences in Defense of Territory 68
Relation of Displays to Subsequent Behavior . 77
Effectiveness of Displays 78
Component Structure of Displays 80
Signal Value of Postural Components 90
Presentation of the Bill 91
Categories of Behavior 92
Discussion 100
VOCAL COMMUNICATION 110
Description of Vocal Displays 110
Purple Martin Ill
Gray-Breasted Martin 126
Caribbean Martin 134
Analysis and Discussion of Vocal Displays .... 140
Stereotypy 151
Ecology of Communication 156
TERRITORIALITY 161
Assessment 162
Purple Martin 163
Establishment of Territory 163
Establishment of Territory by Later
Arriving Birds 165
Behavior of First-Year Males 166
Territory Size 167
Gourd Complex Versus Multiroom Houses .... 173
Gray-Breasted Martin 176
Establishment of Territory 176
Gray-Breasted Martin Colony Defense 179
Caribbean Martin 180
vi

Pa^e
Asymmetry in Resource Holding Potential 181
Asymmetry in Ownership Status 183
Asymmetry in Age-Related Plumage Character¬
istics 185
Asymmetry in Aggressive Behavior 186
Asymmetry of Size and Weight on Dominance . . 187
Asymmetry in Contests Due to Sex 190
Discussion 194
RHP Asymmetries 195
Pay-Off Asymmetries 198
Uncorrelated Asymmetries 201
DOMINANCE POSITION 202
Introduction 202
Data Analysis 203
Purple Martin 208
Gray-Breasted Martin 213
Rank in the Hierarchy 214
Discussion 218
CONCLUSIONS 220
LITERATURE CITED 227
BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH 244
vii

LIST OF TABLES
Table Page
1. Comparisons of Agonistic and Nonagonistic Body
and Limb Movement, Final Position, and Duration
of Movements in Seconds 3 6
2. Comparisons of Variances of Agonistic and
Nonagonistic Movements 38
3. Frequencies of Initial Displays 69
4. Incidence of Single Displays from Different
Types of Encounters 71
5. Proportion of Displays Used as Initial Versus
Terminal Responses in Two-Display Sequences ... 74
6. Purple Martins: Display of Signaler and the
Subsequent Behavior of the Signaler and
Receiver 7 5
7. Gray-Breasted Martins: Display of the Signaler
and the Subsequent Behavior of the Signaler
and the Receiver 76
8. Simultaneous Occurrence of Behavioral Components
Given by Territorial Male Purple Martins to
Intruders 83
9. Simultaneous Occurrence of Behavioral Components
Given by Territorial Male Gray-Breasted Martins
to Intruders 84
10. Purple Martins: Behavioral Components of
Displays Versus Subsequent Behavior of Signaler
and of Receiver 86
11. Gray-Breasted Martins: Behavioral Components of
Displays Versus Subsequent Behavior of Signaler
and of Receiver 88
12. Song Rates of Male Purple Martins During
Different External Situations 125
viii

Table Page
13. Percentage Occurrence of Vocalizations During
Agonistic Behavior of Purple Martins 141
14. Percentage Occurrence of Vocalizations During
Agonistic Behavior of Gray-Breasted Martins . . 142
15. Percentage Occurrence of Vocalizations During
Agonistic Behavior of Caribbean Martins .... 143
16. Percentage of Several Vocalizations Given in
Various Contexts by Purple Martins 146
17. Percentage of Several Vocalizations Given in
Various Contexts by Gray-Breasted Martins . . . 147
18. Percentage of Several Vocalizations Given in
Various Contexts by Caribbean Martins 148
19. Comparisons of the Physical Characteristics of
Purple Martin Vocalizations 152
20. Comparisons of the Physical Characteristics of
Gray-Breasted Martin Vocalizations 153
21. Comparisons of the Physical Characteristics of
Caribbean Martin Vocalizations 154
22. Number of Male Purple Martins and Their Maximum
and Minimum Territory Sizes with Male's Months
of Arrival 170
23. A Comparison of the Number of Fights at a Gourd
Complex Versus a Multiroom House for Purple
Martin Males 174
24. A Comparison of the Length of Time Spent Loaf¬
ing at a Gourd Complex Versus a Multiroom House
for Purple Martin Males 175
25. Comparison of Whether Prior Occupancy at a
Nesting Site Determines the Winner of the
Encounter 184
26. Comparison of the Number of Encounters Between
Adult Purple, Gray-Breasted, and Caribbean
Martins in Which a Bird Dominated as a Result
of Whether or Not it Initiated the Encounter . . 188
IX

Table Page
27. Comparison of 241 Purple Martin Encounters in
Which a Bird Dominated as a Function of Age and
of Whether it Initiated the Fight 189
28. Comparison of Dominance with Body Weight and
Body Size in Purple Martins 191
29. Comparison of Dominance with Body Weight and
Body Size in Gray-Breasted Martins 192
30. Number of Supplantings at the Nest Sites
Between Purple Martins at the Gainesville
Country Club (1978) 204
31. Number of Purple Martin Supplantings Taking
Place Other Than in Front of the Nest hole,
i.e. at Telephone Wires, Colony Rooftops,
Television Antennas 205
32. Number of Supplantings Observed at the Nest
Sites Between Gray-Breasted Martins at Pointe-
a-Pierre (1979) 206
33. Number of Gray-Breasted Martin Supplantings
Taking Place Other Than in the Territories of
the Pumphouse Birds, i.e. at Guard Rails,
Pipes, Rooftop 207
34. A Comparison Between Whether Lower-Ranking
Males Entered Their Nest Holes More Often When
Confronted by a High-Ranking Male 210
35. The Degree of Association at the Nest Sites
Between Two Measures of Dominance in the Purple
Martin, Rank in the Hierarchy and Number of
Interactions Initiated and Won 216
36. The Degree of Association at the Nest Sites
Between Two Measures of Dominance in the Gray-
Breasted Martin, Rank in the Hierarchy and
Number of Interactions Initiated and Won .... 217
x

LIST OF FIGURES
Figure
1. Schematic outline showing how body and limb
positions were measured 26
2. Postures associated with inactivity: A. Purple
Martin; B. Gray-breasted Martin; C. Caribbean
Martin 47
3. Displays associated with threat behavior:
A. Low-intensity Head Forward Thrust (Purple
Martin); B. high-intensity Head Forward Thrust
(Purple Martin); C. low-intensity Head Forward
Thrust (Gray-breasted Martin); D. high-
intensity Head Forward Thrust (Gray-breasted
Martin); E. variation of the high-intensity
Head Forward Thrust (Gray-breasted Martin);
F. low-intensity Head Forward Thrust (Caribbean
Martin); G. high-intensity Head Forward Thrust
(Caribbean Martin) 49
4. Displays associated with threat behavior:
A. Gaping; B. Gaping between mates; C. Defen¬
sive Gaping; D. Lunge 54
5. Display associated with appeasement behavior;
A. Withdraw High-Up; B. Alert High-Up;
C. White Badge Signal 58
6. Fighting interactions between male martins ... 65
7. Models of interactions between martins 72
8. Gradation of threat displays 93
9.Pair-wise comparisons of probabilities that a
Purple Martin signaler will attack, retreat, or
stay for all possible combinations of displays.
Dark blocks indicate a significant difference
at the 0.05 level, test for significance between
two proportions. LIHF= low-intensity Head
Forward Thrust, HIHF= high-intensity Head
xi

Figure
Page
Forward Thrust, G= Gaping, BS= Bill-snapping,
L= Lunge, WHU=Withdraw High-Up, AHU= Alert
High-Up 94
10. Pair-wise comparisons of probabilities that a
Purple Martin receiver will attack, retreat, or
stay for all possible combinations of displays.
Dark blocks indicate a significant difference at
the 0.05 level, test for significance between
two proportions. LIHF= low-intensity Head
Forward Thrust, HIHF= high-intensity Head
Forward Thrust, G= Gaping, BS= Bill-snapping,
L= Lunge, WHU=Withdraw High-Up, AHU= Alert
High-Up 95
11. Pair-wise comparisons of probabilities that a
Gray-breasted Martin signaler will attack,
retreat, or stay for all possible combinations
of displays. Dark blocks indicate a signifi¬
cant difference at the 0.05 level, test for
significance between two proportions.
LIHF= low-intensity Head Forward Thrust,
HIHF= high-intensity Head Forward Thrust,
G= Gaping, BS= Bill-snapping, L= Lunge,
WHU=Withdraw High-Up, AHU= Alert High-Up .... 96
12. Pair-wise comparisons of probabilities that a
Gray-breasted Martin receiver will attack,
retreat, or stay for all possible combinations
of displays. Dark blocks indicate a signifi¬
cant difference at the 0.05 level, test for
significance between two proportions.
LIHF= low-intensity Head Forward Thrust,
HIHF= high-intensity Head Forward Thrust,
G= Gaping, BS= Bill-snapping, L= Lunge,
WHU=Withdraw High-Up, AHU= Alert High-Up .... 97
13. Sonograms of Purple Martin vocalizations:
A. series of Cher calls from one individual;
B. one Zweet call; C. series of Zweet calls
from one individual; D. series of Zweet calls
from one individual when a cat was observed;
E. Zweet and Cher calls from one individual;
F. Hee-hee calls from two individuals 112
14. Sonograms of Purple Martin vocalizations:
A.
series
of
Chortle
calls
from one
female;
B.
series
of
Chortle
calls
from one
male;
C.
Chortle
song; D.
Zwrack
calls given by
different individuals; E. Rattle call from
one individual; F. Choo calls from a female . .118
Xll

Figure Page
15.
Sonograms of Purple and Gray-breasted Martin
vocalizations: A. Purple Martin Primary song;
B. incomplete Purple Martin Primary song;
C. Gray-breasted Martin Cree calls; D. Gray-
breasted Martin Zwat calls; E. Gray-breasted
Martin Cluck calls; F. Gray-breasted Martin
Krack calis 123
16.
Sonograms of Gray-breasted and Caribbean Martin
vocalizations: A. series of Gray-breasted
Martin Zurr calls; B. series of Gray-breasted
Martin Cheur calls; C. Gray-breasted Martin
Primary song; D. Gray-breasted Martin Rattle
call; E. Caribbean Martin Peak calls;
F. Caribbean Martin Zwoot call; G. Caribbean
Martin Croot call 127
17.
Sonograms of Caribbean Martin vocalizations:
A. Primary song; B. incomplete Primary song;
C. series of Wheet calls; D. series of Kweet
calls from one individual; E. Wrack call .... 136
18.
The dates on which the minimum territory size
was established at the Purple Martin multi¬
room houses 168
19.
Territory size as a function of the number of
Purple Martin males at a multiroom house .... 171
20 .
Territory size as a function of the number of
fights at a Purple Martin multiroom house .... 172
21.
Territory size as a function of the number of
fights at a Gray-breasted Martin nesting area . . 178
22 .
Number of encounters as a function of the sex
of the bird 193
23 .
Frequency of participants in encounters as a
function of the distance between nestholes . . . 211
•
CN
Number of supplantings at a Purple Martin
multiroom house during the breeding season . . . 212
25.
Number of supplantings at the Gray-breasted
Martin nest area during the breeding season . . . 215
Xlll

Abstract of Dissertation Presented to the Graduate School
of the University of Florida in Partial Fulfillment of the
Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy
THE COMPARATIVE BEHAVIOR OF THREE
SPECIES OF SWALLOWS (genus Progne)
By
Erik Joshua Bitterbaum
August, 1986
Chairman: Dr. John William Hardy
Major Department: Zoology
The vocal and visual displays of three species of
swallows (Genus Progne) are described and analyzed struc¬
turally and functionally. I examine the way in which
predictions from models based on game theory can help us
understand ethological data about agonistic displays.
Predictions based on game theory are contrasted with the
traditional ethological view that agonistic displays evolved
to transmit information about the probability of attack or
escape. After a signaler's display, both the signaler's
action and the receiver's response are recorded. I conclude
that information about attack is poorly encoded in the
aggressive displays, and suggest that many agonistic
displays may signal that the subsequent behavior of the
displaying bird depends in part on that of the receiver.
xiv

I give evidence that most of these aggressive displays are
used in a broad range of situations, suggesting that they
encode general messages and that specificity in communica¬
tion depends largely on contextual information.
Social interactions of the swallows I studied are
based upon the mechanism of territoriality. Territoriality
is associated with defense of a critical resource, which in
these birds is a breeding territory. The establishment of
territory is associated with age-related plumage charac¬
teristics, residency, and aggression. Dominance hierarchies
in the swallows studied are linear away from the nest sites
and nonlinear at the breeding sites. Thus, the outcome of
an encounter between individuals is site-dependent. These
findings are discussed in the light of recent theoretical
advances in the study of animal threat and fighting behav¬
ior.
xv

INTRODUCTION
In this study, I investigated the display behavior of
three species of swallows, genus Progne: the Purple Martin
(P. subís) , the Gray-breasted Martin (P^_ chalybea) , and the
Caribbean Martin (P^ dominicensis). Specifically, the aims
of this study were to (1) describe the vocal and physical
displays, (2) provide information on the function of each
display, (3) suggest how each species's display behavior is
related to its social organization, and (4) examine some
aspects of the ecology of communication.
General accounts of the behavior and life history of
the Purple Martin have been given by Allen and Nice (1952) ,
Bent (1942), Bitterbaum and Brown (1981), Brown (1975,
1978a, 1979a, 1979b, 1980, 1984), Brown and Bitterbaum
(1980), Finlay (1971, 1976), Gaunt (1959), Jackson and Tate
(1974) , Johnston and Hardy (1962) , and Rohwer and Niles
(1977, 1979). Previous studies of the behavior of the Gray¬
breasted Martin have been published by Beebe, Hartley, and
Howe (1917) , Bent (1942) , Dyrcz (1984) , Eisenmann and
Haverschmidt (1970), ffrench (1976) and Hellmayr (1906).
Little is known about the behavior of Caribbean Martins
apart from comments made by Belcher and Smooker (1937) and
ffrench (1976).
1

2
Communication has been defined historically as an
exchange of information between two animals for their mutual
benefit (Geist, 1971; Hailman, 1977; Marler, 1956, 1961;
Miller, 1983; Nugent, 1979; Post & Greenlaw, 1975; Zahavi,
1982). Animal X (the signaler) transmits a signal that
alters the behavior of animal Y (the receiver); however,
neither the signal nor the response constitutes
communication in themselves. Even if one animal signals and
the other responds, there has been no communication unless
the probability of response is altered from what it would
have been in the absence of the signal (Klopfer & Hatch,
1968; Wilson, 1975). Not all signals necessarily provoke an
immediate, specific response from the receiver. A stimulus
may simply change the animal's responsiveness to another
signal, or the stimulus may persist and be perceived after a
delay (Burghardt, 1970; Marler & Peters, 1977; Wilson,
1975).
Ritualization
I here discuss how signals may have evolved through
natural selection for effective communication. I mainly
address two questions: (1) What is the evidence that
communication takes place when individuals of three differ¬
ent species of swallows interact with others of their own
species, and (2) What is the evidence that particular
behavior patterns of these birds are indeed signals? The
action of a signaler can be an overt behavior, such as a

3
visual or acoustical display, or a change in the sender's
morphology or physiology (such as coloration of an append¬
age) , or even an odor associated with an excretion (Smith,
1977).
Most signals in animals are transmitted by special
displays. A display is a specific behavior pattern that has
become specialized to modify the behavior of another indi¬
vidual (Krebs & Davies, 1981). The process of evolution or
displays from non-display movements is called ritualization.
By definition, a ritualized pattern must have been, at some
time, less functional in communication and not a display
pattern or other specialized communicatory activity.
Previously, ritualization was seen by some workers as
reducing the amount of ambiguity of potentially informative
actions (Darwin, 1872; Morris 1956). In becoming more
stylized and exaggerated, the information content, and
therefore the signal property, of the display was enhanced.
This traditional view of communication argued that it was
possible to determine the information content of a signal
from a knowledge of the response of other animals to that
signal and from knowledge of the environmental and behav¬
ioral contexts in which that response was given (Andersson,
1976; Dunham, 1966; Stokes, 1962a).
More recent ideas, however, suggest that displays are
likely to evolve that disguise the real internal state or
intentions of the animal (Charnov & Krebs, 1975; Dawkins &
Krebs, 1978, 1984). This view proposes that signals are

4
manipulative in function and are used to persuade recipients
to behave in ways that benefit the signaler. Threat dis¬
plays, for example, may disguise an animal's intent to flee
by making it appear aggressive (Maynard Smith, 1974) . To
view animal communication as potentially deceitful is a
sharp departure from the more traditional view of ritualiza-
tion.
This new view leads to a third hypothesis concerning
the evolution of ritualization, which emphasizes that
displays are the result of selection by receivers for
reliable signals. Zahavi (1979) suggests that displays
become more stereotyped and repetitive because stereotypy
provides a uniform background against which subtle differ¬
ences between individuals are emphasized. Recipients are
selected to discriminate between signals on the basis of the
signal's reliability as an indicator of an animal's parental
ability, size, strength, or fighting ability. In this
manner a female may assess the courtship feeding or display
of a number of potential mates with their ability to gather
food for her young. Thus, current animal communication
theory is the focus of three conflicting hypotheses that
explain the selective advantage of ritualization:
(1) reduction of ambiguity or information sharing,
(2) manipulation, and (3) reliable or honest signals.

How Signals Originate
Early understanding of ritualization came from Huxley
5
(1914, 1923, 1966), Lorenz (1950, 1966), and Tinbergen
(1952, 1959) when they realized that displays usually
evolved from other movements that formerly had no signalling
function--the principle of derived activities. According to
these three ethologists, ritualization begins when some
behavior pattern that is functional in another situation
becomes "emancipated" from its original motivational context
and acquires a secondary value as a signal. For example, an
individual bird can begin by recognizing an open bill as an
overt threat. Once this happens, selection will favor
signalers who open their bills in a fighting context because
of the effect on opponents, and the open bill in certain
contexts begins to evolve into a threat display.
Historically, three primary sources of displays were
recognized by ethologists: intention movements, displace¬
ment activities, and redirected activities (Andrew, 1956;
Daanje, 1950; Hinde & Tinbergen, 1958). Intention movements
are the preparatory or incomplete movements that often
appear at the beginning of an activity. During the process
of ritualization such movements are altered in a way that
makes their communicative function more effective. Inten¬
tion movements tend to become simplified, stereotyped,
repetitive, and exaggerated in form (McFarland & Houston,
1981). They also may acquire morphological support in the
form of additional structures that enhance the

6
conspicuousness of the movement. One example is found in
the Mandarin Duck (Aix galericulata), which has some of its
wing feathers modified to form a bright orange sail that is
erected during courtship preening (Lorenz, 1941). The
ancestral preening movements are reduced to a quick turn of
the head so that the bill points to the orange sail.
Other displays have evolved from displacement activ-
ities--the "out of context" behavior patterns that often
appear in conflict situations. These movements may reflect
motivational conflict or indecision as the animal vacillates
between, for example, attack and moving away (Hinde, 1970).
Examples include displacement scratching in lovebirds
(Agapornis species; Dilger, 1960) and domestic chickens
(gallus Domesticus; McBride et al., 1969), which appears to
be derived from activities related to the collection of nest
material.
A third source for the evolution of displays is redi¬
rected activities. The behavior pattern is in the right
context but directed at an inappropriate stimulus. When a
male approaches a potential rival with tendencies both to
intimidate and to flee, he may choose neither course of
action at first. Instead he performs a third, seemingly
irrelevent, act. He redirects his aggression toward the
ground or some object nearby such as a blade of grass.
Cullen (1966) and Tinbergen (1952) describe certain displays
of terns and gulls that may have been redirected behavior
derived from attack behavior.

7
After the appearance of Timbergen's 1952 article,
ethologists began to interpret communication systems by what
came to be known as the conflict theory of the origin of
displays. Subsequent neurophysiological experimentation on
a variety of animal groups failed to provide confirmation of
key elements of the Tinbergen model, and the conflict
hypothesis was modified from its original form (Baerends,
1975; Brown & Hunsperger, 1963; Deluis, 1973; Ewert, 1985;
Greenberg, 1977; Ishii, 1984). Later, Andrew (1963, 1972),
Hinde (1981), and Wickler (1969) interpreted ritualization
as a pervasive, highly opportunistic process that could be
derived from almost any available behavior pattern, anatom¬
ical structure or physiological change. Additional sources
of displays have been traced to preening, feather-settling,
autonomic responses, and temperature-regulating movements
(Beer, 1975; McKinney, 1965; Wittenberger, 1981).
Intention movements and displacement activities still
tend to be singled out by many authors as the prime sources
for avian signal movements, but it has been realized for
some time that this is an oversimplification (Caryl, 1982;
Cullen, 1972; Hinde, 1970; Moynihan, 1955; Smith, 1977). In
particular, there seems to be increasing doubt about the
"out of context" interpretation of display origins through
the displacement phenomenon. This whole subject remains
controversial. The concept of displacement activities, once
frequently used loosely, is now widely recognized as unclear
and is to be used cautiously if at all (Hinde, 1970).

8
In general, the task of integrating the concepts of
motivational conflict and communication processes is still
one of the most difficult confronting ethologists. A major
difficulty in applying motivational concepts is that they
call for increasingly detailed causal analyses and yet they
remain untested until they can be translated into physio¬
logical terms. Many researchers have directed the main
focus of their attention away from motivational interpre¬
tations toward communication processes and questions of
adaptive function (Andrew, 1972; Beer, 1977; Brown, 1964;
Greenquist, 1982; Nuechterlein & Storer, 1982, 1985;
Robbins, 1983; Tinbergen, 1972; Willis, 1972; Wilson, 1975).
But, as McCleery (1978), McFarland (1971, 1977), Sibly and
McCleery (1985) and Sibly and McFarland (1976) have pointed
out, in order to understand what an animal will do at any
particular moment, it is necessary to take into account
causal and functional considerations simultaneously. For
example, if a bird is hungry but the risk of looking for
food is high because of predators, the bird may wait until
the predators have moved elsewhere. Birds have decision
rules that involve comparing their physiological state
(hunger) with risks in the environment, because these will
influence the animal's calibration of its internal state.
In the future, Sibly, McCleery and McFarland's argument may
lead to important links between causal and functional
questions.

9
In recent years, our understanding of animal displays
has been enhanced by the application of game-theory models
{Bishop & Cannings, 1978; Caryl, 1979, 1981; Hammerstein,
1981; Hines, 1977; Maynard Smith, 1974, 1976; Maynard Smith
& Parker, 1976; Maynard Smith & Price, 1973; Parker, 1974,
1978; Parker & Rubenstein, 1981). Gaming involves the
principle of optimization—an individual should attempt to
minimize its energy expenditures while maximizing its energy
gains. The greatest benefit to fitness can be derived from
a dispute by expending only that energy necessary to win.
The prediction is that when fighting or coercion entails a
large energy expenditure or a significant risk of physical
injury and a loss of reproductive opportunity, individuals
will exhibit less dangerous, more conventional behavior
patterns for settling disputes. These conventions usually
take the form of ritualized displays. Thus, all partici¬
pants involved in a dispute will receive benefits from using
displays rather than coercion.
In this dissertation, I am most interested in the use
of communication by birds in conflict situations, specif¬
ically in competition for limited resources. Because there
are three hypotheses about the selective advantage of
ritualization, I will discuss the three different models
with specific reference to threat displays.

10
The Information Hypothesis
According to the information or traditional view of
communication, ritualization is the result of making the
behavior of the signaler more predictable to a recipient by
making available some information about the internal state
or probable next behavior of the signaler (Cullen, 1966;
Dawkins & Kerbs, 1978, 1984; Smith, 1968, 1977). Implicit
in this definition is the requirement that the signal's
message is the information it conveys, and its meaning is
its effect on the receiver's behavior. By communicating,
the signaler gains a certain degree of control over the
actions of the receiver, and the adaptive significance to
the signaler of this type of control is the function of the
signal (Smith, 1977) . For example, a bird seeing an
approaching intruder may show a specific display indicating
the high probability that it (the signaler) is, or soon will
be, engaged in attack. Upon seeing the display, the
intruder retreats immediately, indicating that information
was conveyed about what the signaler will do next. Commu¬
nication is thus seen as a means by which receivers can
predict the future behavior of signalers and act appropri¬
ately. Signalers are selected to inform receivers of their
internal state to make it easy for receivers to predict
their future behavior. Both parties benefit from displays
that are efficient, unambiguous, and as informative as
possible. The information content, and therefore the signal

11
property, of the action is enhanced when displays become
more stylized and exaggerated.
If, however, displays must be clearcut and unambiguous
to be most effective, increasing the clarity of signals by
increasing their stereotypy may reduce the amount of
information they convey about the signaler. Though signal
complexity is necessary to increase information content, it
increases the probability of misinterpretation at the same
time. For example, consider a bird that uses songs contain¬
ing six syllables to transmit messages. Further, suppose
that for each syllable the bird can use any of the six sepa¬
rate sounds. One message might consist of the same sound
repeated six times. Another message could consist of one
sound followed by a different sound repeated four times
followed by a third sound. The bird would have the poten¬
tial to transmit 6^ (or a total of 46,656) different mes¬
sages. In avian communication, no bird is believed to have
such a system. Instead, motor patterns are simplified and
the components of displays are often repetitive. Morris
(1956) called this stereotypy (typical intensity).
In "typical intensity" the movement has the same form
over a wide range of motivational states. Morris viewed it
as the product of selection to reduce ambiguity in displays.
Charles Darwin (1872) discussed the principle of antithesis
when he described how threat and appeasement postures had
come to extreme opposites—a threatening dog stands erect,
while a submissive dog crouches or rolls on its back. By

12
making a movement more recognizable to another individual, a
display becomes more effective in eliciting a response.
The Manipulation Hypothesis
Caryl (1979, 1981, 1982), Charnov and Krebs (1975),
Dawkins (1976, 1982), Dawkins and Krebs (1978, 1984), and
Hammerstein (1981) have criticized the traditional viewpoint
that signals function primarily to provide information.
Instead, they favor a second hypothesis that signals
function to manipulate, prod, coerce, or persuade receivers
to the advantage of the signaler. Dawkins (1976, 1982)
pictured animals as machines designed to preserve and
propagate their genes. As a means to this end, animals may
manipulate both biotic and abiotic objects in the environ¬
ment. Dawkins regarded object manipulation as an extended
expression, or part of the extended phenotype, of the
animal's genes. For example, a male bird does not expend
time and energy in physically moving a female to his nest;
instead he may sit at the nest site and sing. The female
may respond to the song by moving toward the male. From the
male's point of view, communication is clearly more effi¬
cient than trying to acquire a female by force. Communica¬
tion is no longer a cooperative exchange of information
between the signaler and receiver, but a signaler manipulat¬
ing a receiver to its own advantage. Usually the signaler
and receiver benefit from the communication, and both will
be selected to maximize their own benefit.

13
In 1974, Maynard Smith described a model, the War of
Attrition, intended to represent an agonistic encounter that
was settled by display alone. He used an argument from
game-theory to show that individuals would not be expected
to provide truthful information or to respond to information
provided by an opponent because of the way in which this
strategy could be exploited by cheaters. When he considered
how natural selection was likely to act, it was difficult
for him to imagine how selection could favor information¬
sharing. Instead, he assumed that there was nothing to
prevent animals from lying about what they would do next.
Moreover, for an animal to declare its intentions early in
an encounter would be like showing one's hand to an opponent
at the beginning of a card game. If two animals were
contesting a resource by means of ritualized displays, it
would not benefit either animal to reveal whether it would
attack or flee until the last possible moment. Thus,
Maynard Smith suggested that typical intensity had evolved
in threat displays to conceal the precise behavior probabil¬
ities of the signaler, not to make the signal more easily
recognizable as was postulated by Morris (1956).
The Honesty Hypothesis
A third hypothesis, suggested by Maynard Smith and
Price (1973) and Zahavi (1979), is that ritualization is the
result of selection by recipients for reliable signals.
During evolution a number of different factors could have

14
encouraged the trend toward species-typical display stereo¬
typy. Females would have increased fitness if they used
reliable cues to male fitness as a criterion for mate
selection. If females could detect some consistent species-
unique trait in the male display of their species,
they would avoid investment in non-viable or uncompetitive
males.
Ritualization of display behavior during agonistic
interactions also would be selected if an animal's inten¬
tion, degree of motivation, and potential strength (e.g.,
body size) in relation to the viewer's strength were con¬
veyed by some set of signals. This information could be
used to predict who would win a physical encounter without
the need to actually fight. Both contestants would benefit
by avoiding energy expenditures and chance of injury.
Predictions
There have been few empirical tests to distinguish
between these hypotheses. The information hypothesis
predicts that agonistic displays should communicate the
future behavior of the signaler with maximum clarity. The
honesty hypothesis predicts that receivers are selected to
discriminate between signals on the basis of their reliabil¬
ity as indicators of an individual's size, strength, age, or
skill, which could affect the receiver's chance of victory
in a contest. In both the information and honesty
hypotheses, receivers would use the information in deciding

15
how to respond appropriately. The manipulation hypothesis,
in contrast, predicts that signalers will not give away any
information about their motivational state or future inten¬
tions. According to this hypothesis, agonistic displays
should be poor predictors of ensuing attack and escape, and
there should be no consistent difference between the behav¬
ior of the eventual winner and loser until near the end of
the contest. As a result it is difficult to predict which
individual will win or lose from the displays alone, and
information about intentions is not transmitted. One of the
goals in this study was to test the applicability of the
information, manipulation, and honesty hypotheses to the
information available from martin (Progne spp.) signals.

TAXONOMY AND DISTRIBUTION OF MARTINS
Making behavioral comparisons between closely related
species emphasizes the differences that have arisen since
speciation in a particular group. Such comparison may not
only reveal evolutionary pathways within a particular group,
but also may elucidate general patterns of evolution of
behavior. The taxonomy of the genus Progne (order Passeri¬
formes) is in dispute. Specimens of all members of the
genus are still needed from many parts of their ranges,
since the locations of the wintering areas and migratory
routes are not well known.
Peters (1960) recognized five species of Progne: P.
subis (Purple Martin), with two races, subis and nesperia;
P. chalybea (Gray-breasted Martin), with two races, chalybea
and domestica; P. dominicensis (Caribbean Martin), with
three races, dominicensis, cryptoleuca, and sinaloae; P.
modesta (Southern Martin), with three races, modesta,
elegans, and murphyi; and P^ tapera (Brown-chested Martin),
with two races, tapera and fusca.
Hellmayr (1935) considered the Antillean forms
dominicensis and cryptoleuca and the west Mexican form
sinaloae to be races of subis. Although Ridgeway (1904)
recognized the close relationship between Cryptoleuca,
16

17
dominicensis, and sinaloae, he gave each specific status.
Zimmer (1955) and the A.O.U. Check-list (1957) also treated
cryptoleuca as a separate species. Zimmer gave dominicensis
specific rank, but also considered the isolated sinaloae
conspecific with dominicensis. Miller et al. (1957) dis¬
agreed with Zimmer and his maintenance of sinaloae as a race
of dominicensis separate from subís. Zimmer (1955) pointed
out that treatment of populations of dominicensis as races
of subis seemed unwarranted if chalybea was maintained as a
distinct species, because dominicensis was intermediate in
characters and distribution between subis and chalybea.
Allan Phillips (1959, and pers. comm.) supported Zimmer.
Phillips collected specimens of sinaloae while working in
northern Mexico. He assigned them to dominicensis, stating
they bore no important resemblance to subis.
The relationships of the remaining two species of
Martins, modesta and tapera, have been little studied.
However, the A.O.U. Check-list (1983) recommends making them
two species, the extralimital P_^_ nu_ elegans and P_^_ m.
modesta. Mayr and Short (1970) consider subis, chalybea,
dominicensis, tapera, and modesta a superspecies, and when
more is known about their relationships in the areas of
contact all might eventually be treated as subspecies of
subis, although this seems unlikely to me.

METHODS
Study Areas
Field studies of the Purple Martin (PM), were conducted
in residential backyards at Gainesville, Alachua County,
Florida. I watched PMs almost daily from 15 February to
9 June 1977, from 24 February to 3 August 1978, from 21 Feb¬
ruary to 14 March 1979, and from 8 February to 9 June 1980.
Over 2100 hours of observation were made. The principal
colonies occupied 16 man-made martin houses of different
sizes and designs totalling 168 nesting compartments. The
most studied colony was at the Gainesville Country Club.
This house contained eight compartments and was occupied by
six pairs of martins in 1977, seven pairs in 1978,
five pairs in 1979, and seven pairs in 1980.
The primary study site for Gray-breasted Martins (GM)
was the Trinidad-Texaco Inc. oil refinery adjacent to the
town of Pointe-a-Pierre, Trinidad. GMs nesting in holes in
broken steel pipes were studied from 18 April to 22 June
1979, for about 500 hours of observation. Additional
observations of GMs nesting among fissures in a cliff face
on the northeast coast of Galera Point, Trinidad, totaled
17 hours and were made during June 1979. I collected
18

19
supplemental data on GMs from July to August 1976 and 1977
at a secondary site in downtown Acapulco, Gerrero, Mexico.
The center of the city had several blocks of three- to
five-story buildings where birds nested in drainage pipes
and under the eaves of buildings.
I observed Caribbean Martins (CM) daily at a 2.7 hect¬
are tract on the northwest side of Pigeon Point, Tobago,
from 23 June through 16 July 1979, totalling about 180 hours
of observation. The vegetation was palm trees (Euterpes
spp.) in grassy clearings with a few dense patches of native
broad-leaved trees and shrubs. CMs nested in dead palms in
holes excavated by Red-crowned Woodpeckers (Melanerpes
ribricapillus).
I observed all three species of martins during the
following five three-hour time periods: Dawn-0900, 0900-
1200, 1200-1500, 1500-1800, and 1800-dusk. Night behavior
was monitored once a week with a flashlight until birds
fledged.
Materials
Aluminum PM houses in Florida were lowered in telescop¬
ing poles, and doorpanels were raised to record nest data.
Ladders were used to reach PMs nesting in gourds and wooden
houses, and nest contents were observed with a flashlight.
A small, movable dental mirror attached to a fishing pole
was used with a flashlight to observe the contents of GM
nests in broken pipes. Nest contents of GMs nesting in palm

20
trees accessible by ladder were examined with a flashlight
and a dental mirror.
An observation blind was not used. My presence did not
obviously affect the birds' behavior as long as I was 10 to
20 meters away. Field notes were either written directly or
dictated into a portable cassette recorder for later tran¬
scription. Line drawings and diagrams were made from field
notes, frames of 8mm movie film, or 35mm still photographs.
Super-8 movie film totaling 1350 meters was taken at
16 frames per second using a GAF ST602 movie camera and was
analyzed using a Bell and Howell 1623Z stop-action projec¬
tor.
Tape recordings of the vocalizations were made using a
Nagra #111 open-reel recorder at 19 cm/s or with Superscope
C-105, Uher CR-134, and Sony Model TC-55 cassette recorders
at 4.25 cm/s. Recorders were coupled with a Sennheiser 805
or a K2U-ME80 unidirectional condensor microphone, a Dan
Gibson E.P.M. Model P-200 parabolic microphone, or a Realis¬
tic super cardioid condensor microphone. Vocalizations were
analyzed using a Kay Elemetrics 7029A Sona-graph and/or a
Spectral Dynamics Real Time Analyzer (Hopkins et al., 1974)
Model SD 301C-C. All tapes made during this study were
deposited in the Bioacoustics Archives of the Florida State
Museum, Gainesville, Florida.
Color-marking consisted of spreading enamel model
airplane paint on PM and GM feet, remiges, and retrices.
The color-marking technique had little observable effect on

21
bird behavior other than the birds occasionally pecking at
their feet to remove the paint. I was unable to color-mark
CMs, but natural variations in the plumage pattern of the
ventral surface served to identify a number of birds.
All PM males with entirely dark-blue feathers (i.e., at
least two years old) were called "adults." One-year-old
males having gray ventral parts with only a few dark blue
feathers on the crown, throat, and belly were called
"yearlings." Birds in both classes were sexually mature. I
did not try to separate the very similar adult and yearling
females. Because GMs lack obvious sexual dimorphism, sex
was determined from behavioral characters associated with
copulation, courtship, and/or territorial defense. All CM
males with blue-black feathers and conspicuously contrasting
white feathers from mid-breast to vent were called "adults."
I did not separate adult and yearling CM females, which were
duller than adult males and had extensive grayish brown
feathers on the upper breast and sides. Yearling CM males
were intermediate in plumage between the adult sexes. In
this study, any references to adult or yearling individuals
or pairs are with respect only to the age of the males (as
in Brown, 1978a).
Description of Behavioral Techniques
I considered PM male arrival dates as the earliest
dates after which I regularly saw the males at the colony.
An arrival date was not necessarily the date of territory

22
establishment or the date of pair bond formation. During
this study GMs and CMs were already at the breeding sites
when I arrived. I also determined the proportion of time
that males spent on the territory singing and defending
(including silent periods of alert perching), and the
proportion of time that they spent preening, loafing (inac¬
tivity exceeding 30 seconds), foraging, and flying near the
colony. Physical displays were named according to their
characteristic motor patterns. Vocal displays were named
according to their onomatopoeic sounds. A signaler-receiver
reference system was adopted, e.g., signaler directs behav¬
ior pattern A to receiver, which can respond with behavior
pattern B. The method used to determine display function
was to describe (1) the components of the display, (2) the
circumstances in which the display occurred, (3) the behav¬
ior accompanying the display, and (4) the behavior shown by
both participants immediately before and after the display
was given.
Social behavior was monitored by use of focal-group
sampling (Altmann, 1974). Interactions were recorded by
noting (1) time of occurrence, (2) sex and identity, when
known, of both the individual that initiated the interaction
and the recipient, (3) the sequence and kinds of behavioral
patterns used by both individuals, (4) the behavior immedi¬
ately following the interaction, and (5) the behavior of
both individuals immediately preceding the interaction.

23
I studied the patterns of social dominance at and near
the nesting sites. The frequency and outcome of those
encounters, which illustrated a dominant-subordinate rela¬
tionship, were recorded on matrix tables according to which
animal was successful (columns) and which one was defeated
(rows). Criteria of subordination included the turning away
of lateral body presentation, avoidance, or fleeing of a
martin relative to the approach of another individual.
Scores for dominance and subordinance were calculated for
each animal as the ratio of its wins or losses, respec¬
tively, in aggressive interactions to the total number of
encounters in which it was engaged. This provided a basis
for ranking the animals for dominance or subordinance. The
discerned dominance structure, therefore, was considered an
agonistic hierarchy (Deag, 1977).
Three classes of participants in agonistic encounters
were considered: (1) encounters between males (male-male),
(2) encounters between females (female-female), and
(3) encounters in which a male directed an act toward a
female (male-female). Female-directed acts toward males
were not included because of their low frequency. Rates of
agonistic interactions for each sex class were calculated by
dividing the number of agonistic encounters that occurred in
a specific sex class by the number of pair-hours of observa¬
tion for that class. The number of pair-hours of observa¬
tion was a measure of the time available to any pair of

24
animals for potential interactions and was calculated for
each class following the method of Struhsaker (1967).
Criteria for Recognizing Display Units
The study of ritualized behavior patterns involves an
ethological description of each pattern, tests to show that
the pattern is effective in communication, and measurements
and comparisons of the pattern with other patterns to
suggest its origin. However, variation in form of display
behavior raises several difficult problems for observers who
wish to describe display behavior and to determine the
number of display units in a species' repertoire.
In practice, two types of behavioral classifications
may be distinguished: one involves description by motor
pattern and the other involves description by consequence
(Hinde, 1970). In the first method, an attempt is made to
describe the actual pattern of muscle movements made by the
animal with little reference to the effects of the behavior
on the environment. Terms such as "wing flick" and "bill¬
snapping" are of this type. When classifying by conse¬
quence, the observer records the effect of the behavior on
the environment. Thus, one may use categories of behavior
such as an animal "staying put" or "retreating." In this
case, one emphasizes the important consequences and
directedness of behavior. In this study, the two types of
description intergrade, though each extreme can be quite
useful in the appropriate circumstances.

25
Questions about how much stereotypy is typical of
displays and how much stereotypy is necessary to justify
calling the behavior a display are under increasing dis¬
cussion in ethology (pers. comm. Brockmann, 1984; Schleidt,
1974). Some degree of stereotypy seems necessary in order
for displays to be distinguishable from other stimuli
competing for the attention of the receiver. Indeed, one
secondary purpose of this study is to measure how much
evolutionary modification is required before a behavior
pattern is called a signal.
I made position measurements from 35mm photographs and
enlarged drawings traced from the projection of individual
frames of 8mm film. Two types of movements were measured:
(1) movements of the head, bill, trunk, wings, tail, and
legs during agonistic interactions, and (2) the same move¬
ments when birds were not engaged in agonistic interactions.
I measured speed of movement as the number of frames of film
between the start of a movement and the completion of that
movement. Postures were measured as diagrammed in Figure 1.
Degrees of movement of the body or limbs were recorded as
the difference between starting and final positions. From
these measurements, I calculated the mean and variance of
final postures and speed of movements for behavior patterns
executed during agonistic and nonagonistic interactions. I
used the coefficient of variation (CV) to measure how
"fixed" or stereotyped a behavior, particularly a display,
was relative to other behavior patterns (Schleidt, 1974).

Figure 1
Schematic outline showing how body and limb
positions were measured.

27
Significant differences between CVs were determined using
the "c" test statistic (Dawkins & Dawkins, 1973):
c = (CV1-CV2) where Scv=CV
2 2
Scv^+Scv2 2N
The probability associated with c was obtained from the
table for the distribution of t. Using this method, I could
test for a significant difference between the CVs for
behavior patterns used in different contests. I also
measured certain additional changes in behavior patterns:
(1) changes in speed of execution of movements, (2) freezing
of movements, (3) exaggeration of some components of move¬
ments, (4) omission of components of movements, and
(5) decreases in variability of movements.

TERMINOLOGY
Vocal Displays
Shiovitz (1975) refined the definitions of Bondesson
and Davis (1975) in an attempt to standardize bird vocaliza¬
tion terminology. Unfortunately, the classification scheme
proposed by Shiovitz was not adequate to fully describe
Progne vocalizations; hence, I have employed the following
terms.
Note: Any short, uninterrupted sound represented by a
continuous trace on a sonogram.
Syllable: A sound consisting of a note or group of
notes; the basic structural unit of a song,
separated from adjacent syllables by a silent
period of 0.02-0.20 seconds.
Terminal Syllable; A syllable terminating a song,
unlike syllables making up the main phrase.
Call: A vocalization represented by a single discrete
figure on a sonogram.
Song: A unique combination of syllables in a
stereotyped sequence, often shared by several
members of the population. The distinction
between song and call in this study conforms to
28

29
that of other workers (see Armstrong, 1963).
Phrase: A natural section of the song; a grouping of
syllables in a characteristic temporal sequence.
Song Type; Used interchangeably with theme; a fixed
sequence of phrases characterizing a population
or group of populations.
Trill: A consecutive series of similar syllables
repeated serially at about 4 to 17 per second,
producing a rattling sound.
No attempt was made here to describe in quantitative detail
all parameters of all song types. Instead, I have empha¬
sized those general features shared by most song types since
they apparently identify the songs as those of Progne.
Visual Displays
In the recent literature of animal communication
certain terms have come to mean different things to differ¬
ent investigators (Caryl, 1979, Dawkins & Krebs, 1978;
Hinde, 1981). For that reason I have defined and will use
the following terms.
Intention Movement: These are incomplete movements
and precursory movements.
Act or Action Pattern; A set of observable activities
not analyzable into separate occurring compo¬
nents (Russell et al., 1954).

30
Signal: The behavior (e.g. posture, display,
vocalization) transmitted by the signaler.
Display; Any stereotyped behavior pattern (such as
vocal or visual stimuli), alone or in combina¬
tion, that serves a signal function to other
animals.
Ritualization: The process by which a behavior pattern
becomes stereotyped and acquires a signal
function.
Signaler: An individual which transmits a signal.
Receiver: An individual whose probability of behaving
in a particular way is altered by a signal.
Context: The setting in which a signal is transmitted
and received.
Communication: Action on the part of an organism
(signaler) that alters the pattern of behavior
in another organism (receiver).
Territory: A restricted area defended by an animal
against intruders, usually for breeding pur¬
poses .
Dominance Hierarchy: A social ranking, formed through
agonistic behavior, in which individuals are
associated with each other so that some have
greater access to resources than do others.
Agonistic Behavior: Any behavior associated with
threat, fighting, and retreat.

31
Approach; Movement of one or both martins toward each
other, but with no attempt to strike with the
bill.
Threat; Indicates that the signaler could act
aggressively.
Supplant: Replacing an individual at a given place.
In this action, one martin moves to the place
where a second martin is perched, but does not
follow the supplanted individual.
Attack: Movement toward an individual that culminates
in physical contact between individuals.
Fight: When a receiver retaliates to a signaler, both
martins attack.
Chase: Pursuit of a second, moving individual.
Retreat: Behavior in which one bird moves away from
another in response to an attack or display.
Stay: Neither attacking nor retreating, but remaining
stationary.
Inactive: A bird resting and not engaged in obvious
interactions for 30 seconds or more.

VISUAL COMMUNICATION
This section describes visual communication during the
breeding season in the three species of martins that I
studied. Detailed description of behavior is a prerequisite
for the analysis of its function. No matter what the aim of
the ethological study, all such studies must start by
splitting behavior into categories, even if only to enable
the observer to decide which he should include and which he
will ignore. If all behavior patterns were species-typical
and invariant fixed action patterns, this task would be an
easy one. In birds, many behavior patterns vary consid¬
erably in form and intensity, making classification more
difficult. By specifying precisely what an animal does and
does not do, one can begin to cut down the number of tenable
hypotheses about underlying function.
The first part of this study was designed to obtain
some measure of stereotypy and to compare ritualization in
these three martin species. The second part contains
descriptions of behavioral acts. Some of these acts have
been described previously (Allen & Nice, 1952; Brown, 1978a,
1978b; Johnston & Hardy, 1962), but are described again to
bring out the important features emphasized in this study.
32

33
I will concentrate on those behavioral acts that have
acquired a special function in social communication and are
considered displays. A few displays are considered in some
detail if they have not been studied by other researchers in
the past, and in a few cases I have separated some complex
displays into simpler parts. The third part deals with the
actual process of communication. Communication involves
concepts such as the context in which the signal occurs, the
message "intended" by the signaler, and the meaning of the
signal for the recipient (Smith 1965) .
Stereotypy of Behavior Patterns
Some degree of stereotypy is necessary in order for
displays to be distinguished from other stimuli competing
for the attention of the receiver. A researcher has to deal
with the question of how much stereotypy is required to
constitute the criteria for calling a behavior pattern a
signal. The coefficient of variation (CV) has been used to
measure how "fixed" or stereotyped a behavior, particularly
a display, is relative to other behavior patterns (Schleidt,
1974). The CV is the standard deviation expressed as a
percentage of the mean (CV=SDxlOO/x; Hazlett, 1972). The
greater the CV, the greater the variability in the data set.
Bekoff (1977) discussed whether it might be possible to
define some cut-off point between the categories of "fixed"
and "variable." He was asking whether it would be possible
to set up a standard CV against which a variety of data

34
could be compared. For example, it might be the case that
one could recognize a behavior pattern and differentiate it
from another behavior pattern when the CV is less than 30%
(Schleidt, 1974). On the other hand, birds are undoubtedly
better perceivers of their own conspecific behavior than are
humans, and a 30% variability may be too high. According to
Barlow (1977) and Wiley (1973), the maximum values of CV
that might be allowable in order to refer to a behavior
pattern as stereotyped are undecided and relatively
arbitrary. Since the communicative value of many displays
varies with context, guidelines for the use of CV measures
also would be difficult to formulate. Therefore, it seems
premature to attempt to define a cut-off point between
"fixed" and "variable," when further quantitative research
could answer questions dealing with motor pattern variation.
To obtain some measure of stereotypy, I took motion
picture films of nonagonistic movements and agonistic
interactions of martins. The position measurements were
taken as outlined in Figure 1. At this stage of the
analysis, I did not classify movements into the display
categories, since this would have biased the results (see
section on description of displays). That is, some of the
movements of the body and limbs that occurred in agonistic
situations were not clear "head presentation" or "body
extension" displays. Nevertheless, all movements were
included in the analysis, making the data more confusing

35
than if cleaned up by exclusion of patterns that "did not
fit." In Table 1, the means, standard deviations, and
coefficients of variability of the final position and
duration of movements of the different motor patterns are
prestned. In Table 2, the differences in the variances of
the movements were tested using the c statistic for the
final position and duration of movements.
As shown in Table 2, the final posture of the body for
movements executed during agonistic interactions was signif¬
icantly less variable (more stereotyped) than the final
posture of the body during nonagonistic interactions such as
during locomotion or loafing. The speed of movement also
was significantly less variable for agonistic body move¬
ments. The final posture of the head during aggressive and
appeasement interactions was significantly less variable
than the posture of head movements performed during non¬
agonistic situations. For the tail movements, the differ¬
ences in position variance were significant, while
differences in duration of tail movements were not signif¬
icant. I found the final position of the wing to be less
variable in aggressive interactions than the final position
of wing movements involved in nonagonistic situations. The
final position of the wings during appeasement interactions
was significantly less stereotyped. There was no difference
in the speed of wing movement during either agonistic or
nonagonistic situations. It was important that the movement
with the highest degree of stereotypy, that of the bill,

36
Table 1. Comparisons of Agonistic and Nonagonistic Body
and Limb Movement, Final Position, and Duration of
Movements in Seconds.
Final position
(degrees) Duration
N
Mean
SD
CV
Mean
SD
CV
Purple Martin
Body-nonagonistic
50
42.2
11.2
26.5
6.7
2.1
31.3
Body-aggressive
31
22.9
0.84
3.6
2.5
0.08
3.2
Body-appeasement
35
90.3
6.4
7.1
2.8
0.29
10.3
Head-nonagonistic
50
70.5
28.6
40.5
1.3
0.67
50.3
Head-aggressive
31
39.2
5.1
13.0
0.66
0.05
7.5
Head-appeasement
35
86.7
6.4
7.3
1.0
0.11
10.8
Bill-nonagonistic
50
75.4
32.3
42.8
2.4
0.79
31.9
Bill-aggressive
31
28.6
1.5
5.2
0.78
0.12
15.3
Bill-appeasement
35
112.5
4.5
4.0
0.85
0.09
10.5
Tail-nonagonistic
50
26.0
18.9
72.6
3.1
1.6
50.6
Tail-aggressive
31
30.6
4.8
15.6
0.81
0.06
7.4
Tail-appeasement
35
24.1
3.9
16.2
1.2
0.09
7.2
Wing-nonagonistic
50
41.8
17.5
41.8
2.7
0.89
32.9
Wing-aggressive
31
36.8
5.3
14.4
0.34
0.05
14.7
Wing-appeasement
35
47.4
7.0
14.7
0.79
0.08
10.1
Gray-breasted Martin
Body-nonagonistic
32
40.1
11.2
16.7
5.3
1.8
33.9
Body-aggressive
17
20.7
0.94
4.5
2.4
0.09
3.7
Body-appeasement
21
92.6
7.3
7.8
2.6
0.23
8.8
Head-nonagonistic
32
68.4
21.5
31.4
1.7
0.71
41.7
Head-aggressive
17
38.4
4.9
12.7
0.72
0.08
11.1
Head-appeasement
21
86.5
7.2
8.3
1.3
0.16
12.3
Bill-nonagonistic
32
77.1
29.3
38.0
2.1
0.85
40.4
Bill-aggressive
17
27.0
1.4
5.1
0.66
0.11
16.6
Bill-appeasement
21
110.3
6.1
5.5
0.91
0.07
7.6
Tail-nonagonistic
32
27.2
18.6
68.3
4.4
2.5
56.8
Tail-aggressive
17
31.5
5.3
16.8
0.78
0.06
7.6
Tail-appeasement
21
23.7
4.1
17.3
1.7
0.08
4.7
Wing-nonagonistic
32
42.9
19.2
44.8
2.5
0.70
28.0
Wing-aggressive
17
37.8
5.0
13.2
0.41
0.05
12.1
Wing-appeasement
21
45.2
7.8
17.3
0.67
0.07
10.4
Caribbean Martin
Body-nonagonistic
12
39.7
16.1
40.5
5.9
2.2
37.2
Body-aggressive
5
22.6
0.79
3.4
2.4
0.07
2.9
Body-appeasement
7
87.5
6.8
7.7
3.0
0.29
9.6
Head-nonagonistic
12
70.6
27.1
38.3
1.5
0.68
45.3
Head-aggressive
5
39.8
4.8
12.1
0.85
0.09
10.6
Head-appeasement
7
85.5
5.7
6.6
1.4
0.17
12.1
Continued

37
Table 1. Continued.
Final position
(degrees) Duration
N
Mean
SD
CV
Mean
SD
CV
Bill-nonagonistic
12
74.9
31.3
41.7
2.1
0.83
39.5
Bill-aggressive
5
27.3
1.7
6.2
0.98
0.14
14.2
Bill-appeasement
7
113.6
5.6
4.9
0.63
0.05
7.9
Tai1-nonagonistic
12
27.5
15.6
56.7
4.2
2.1
50.0
Tail-aggressive
5
32.1
5.2
16.2
0.56
0.08
14.2
Tail-appeasement
7
25.3
4.3
16.9
1.5
0.16
10.6
Wing-nonagonistic
12
40.9
13.2
32.2
2.6
1.1
42.3
Wing-aggressive
5
34.6
4.5
13.0
0.48
0.07
14.5
Wing-appeasement
7
45.2
6.6
14.6
0.89
0.13
14.6

38
Table 2. Comparisons of Variances of Agonistic and Non-
agonistic Movements.
Final Position Duration
c ratio p c ratio p
Purple Martin
Body
Aggressive-nonagonistic
3.46
<0.05
4.06
<0.05
Appeasement-nonagonistic
3.17
<0.05
3.71
<0.05
Head
Aggressive-nonagonistic
2.59
<0.05
2.68
<0.05
Appeasement-nonagonistic
3.04
<0.05
3.21
<0.05
Bill
Aggressive-nonagonistic
2.35
<0.05
2.83
<0.05
Appeasement-nonagonistic
2.97
<0.05
3.17
<0.05
Tail
Aggressive-nonagonistic
2.86
<0.05
0.37
<0.05
Appeasement-nonagonistic
3.54
<0.05
1.23
<0.05
Wing
Aggressive-nonagonistic
3.72
<0.05
1 . 17
<0.05
Appeasement-nonagonistic
0.87
<0.05
1.34
<0.05
Gray-breasted Martin
Body
Aggressive-nonagonistic
3.27
<0.05
3.34
<0.05
Appeasement-nonagonistic
3.09
<0.05
2.96
<0.05
Head
Aggressive-nonagonistic
2.78
<0.05
3.94
<0.05
Appeasement-nonagonistic
3.35
<0.05
3.82
<0.05
Bill
Aggressive-nonagonistic
4.02
<0.05
2.72
<0.05
Appeasement-nonagonistic
3.12
<0.05
3.69
<0.05
Tail
Aggressive-nonagonistic
3.43
<0.05
0.32
<0.05
Appeasement-nonagonistic
2.91
<0.05
0.75
<0.05
Wing
Aggressive-nonagonistic
2.74
<0.05
1.06
<0.05
Appeasement-nonagonistic
1.23
<0.05
0.74
<0.05
Caribbean Martin
Body
Aggressive-nonagonistic
3.25
<0.05
2.76
<0.05
Appeasement-nonagonistic
Head
2.95
<0.05
2.62
<0.05
Aggressive-nonagonistic
4.21
<0.05
2.67
<0.05
Appeasement-nonagonistic
3.54
<0.05
3.12
<0.05
Continued

39
Table 2. Continued.
Bill
Aggressive-nonagonistic
Appeasement-nonagonistic
Tail
Aggressive-nonagonistic
Appeasement-nonagonistic
Wing
Aggressive-nonagonistic
Appeasement-nonagonistic
Final Position Duration
ratio
P
c ratio
P
i. 72
<0.05
2.83
<0.05
.65
<0.05
3.16
<0.05
. 06
<0.05
0.95
<0.05
.39
<0.05
0.46
<0.05
.86
<0.05
1.02
<0.05
.37
<0.05
1.53
<0.05

40
also was the movement that effected the greatest change in
the behavior of the recepient martin in all three species
(see section on analysis of displays).
In addition to data on variability of movement, the
films also provide information on other differences between
display movements and nondisplay movements in Progne. As
noted by McKinney (1975) , exaggeration of one component of a
movement may occur during ritualization. When comparing the
forward movement of the body during agonistic and nonagon-
istic situations, the body was greater than the normal
position in both final position (23° from the substrate
compared to 42° average for nonagonistic movements) and
degrees of arc traversed from the perpendicular (average 67°
for aggressive movements, average 48° for walking move¬
ments) . However, the range of nondisplay movements was
greater than that of display movements. Similarly, the
average final positions of the head and bill were greater
for aggressive display movements than for nondisplay move¬
ments (Tables 1 and 2). During appeasement displays, the
body, head, and bill were raised laterally to a position
115° ±15 up from the dorsal-ventral axis of the bird's body.
The final position of the body, head, and bill also were
significantly higher in degrees from the substrate in
appeasement situtations than for movements involved in
loafing or alert watching (Tables 1 and 2).
Another characteristic of ritualized movements men¬
tioned by Morris (1966) was the "freezing" of components of

41
the movements. For example, in the movements concerned with
walking, the number of frames of film showing the PM body,
head, and bill in the final position was very small (18—
25 frames). In contrast, the head was held in the forward
postion between 2.7 and 3.5 seconds (49-63 frames), while
the body was held in the forward position between 4.2 and
6.4 seconds (75-115 frames) for aggressive displays. During
appeasement displays, the head was held away from an
opponent between 3.4 and 4.7 seconds (61-85 frames), while
the body was held in the outward position between 4.9 and
7.1 seconds (88-128 frames).
Morris (1966) noted changes in the speed of execution
of movements as another characteristic of ritualization.
For all three species studied, the agonistic movements of
the body, head, and bill were performed more rapidly than
general locomotory movements of those limbs (Tables 1 and
2). For example, during PM aggressive interactions, the
head was raised forward at 0.66 ± 0.05 seconds compared to
1.33 ± 0.67 seconds during nonagonistic movements (c=2.59,
p < 0.05; Table 2). It is important to note that there was
no significant difference in the speed of movement for wing
and/or tail movements. This fact suggested that movement to
the final posture was not as important as the final posture
itself. Similar results were found for GM and CM (Table 1
and 2).

42
Discussion
There are few, if any, concepts that are more central
to the development of modern ethological ideas than that of
the fixed action pattern (for reviews see Barlow, 1977;
Eibl-Eibesfeldt, 1975; Krebs & Davies, 1981; Schleidt,
1974). Stereotyped motor patterns in vertebrates usually
serve either for communication or for locomotion. Moreover,
Schleidt (1974) suggested that actions that occurred at a
very high frequency and/or were adapted to deal with uniform
situations or objects such as pecking, biting, swallowing,
chewing, digging, and preening also should be highly stereo¬
typed. Although locomotor behavior exhibited little varia¬
tion within short time periods (at least in vertebrates), it
demonstrated considerable plasticity over longer intervals.
In contrast, displays that subserved communication were
nearly invariant over much of an animal's adult life span.
Since the idea of fixed action patterns generated
considerable controvery during the 1950s and subsequent
decades (Alcock, 1975; Lehrman, 1953, 1970; Lorenz, 1965),
one might be surprised to find that there have actually been
very few detailed quantitative analyses of actions that have
been categorized as fixed (Barlow, 1977).
Some displays were clearly very fixed when a single
individual was studied. Wiley (1973) measured the time
between the first swish and the first snap in 45 successive
repetitions of the strut display of an individual sage

43
grouse (Centocercus uropasianus). The average interval was
1.55 seconds and the standard deviation was 0.011 seconds
giving a CV of 0.7%. Stamps and Barlow's (1973) study of
Anolis lizard behvior showed that display behavior can be
extremely stereotyped. Measurements of the durations of
elements in the signature bob display of individual lizards
yielded CV's ranging from 2.5 to 9.5%.
Variation between individuals tended to be greater. As
Barlow (1977) pointed out, the displays of the goldeneye
(Bucephala clangula) studied by Dane, Woldott, and Drury
(1959), and often quoted as essentially invariant, mostly
showed CV's of 10 to 20%. However, the bowspirt, nodding,
and ticking had CV's of 17.14%, 72.22%, and 26.3%, respec¬
tively. Figures taken from Dane and van der Kloot (1964)
for the highly stereotyped head-throw display yielded a CV
of 7.2%. Three measures of duration taken from the signa¬
ture bob of Anolis by Stamps and Barlow (1973) gave CV's
ranging from 11.5 to 39% while those for three morphological
features were 10 to 12%. Hazlett (1972) studied the varia¬
bility of movements of the chelipeds and ambulatory legs of
spider crabs (Microphyrs bicornutus) and found CV's never
less than 10%. Nonetheless, the displays were sufficiently
different from the non-display behaviors for both humans and
spider crabs to tell them apart. These attempts to quantify
the concept of the fixed action pattern demonstrated that,
although some displays showed relative fixity, ideas about
invariant stereotypy were not supported.

44
In the present study, the agonistic display movements
of martins were shown to be more stereotyped than the
non-display movements from which presumably they may have
evolved. Of course, this conclusion, even when based on
repeated observation of single-frame analysis film, still
remains rather subjective. The posture and the duration of
movements, however, were the best criteria of stereotypy or
variability that could be measured objectively.
If body and limb positions were assumed to be an index
of stereotypy, it was encouraging to find that the various
filmed actions were very uniform. I found marked stereotypy
when comparing different males while using position or
duration measurements of displays. For example, the
31 observations of body position during an aggressive
display had a mean of 2.99° from the subtrate and a standard
deviation of only 0.84. However, there were some body
movements (such as those of the wing and tail) which
appeared in a relatively constant form, but which varied in
duration. A detailed analysis showed that this variation
was produced by a difference in the speed of the movement at
times, while at other times by the variable length of the
pauses at the beginning and end of the active part of the
movements themselves. If the pauses were disregarded, the
duration the body was held in an aggressive display became
5.7 seconds with a standard deviation of ±0.09 seconds.
Therefore, the measurements the movements' duration con¬
firmed the impression of stereotypy. Thus, display

45
movements were distinguishable from no display movements by
exaggeration of movement (body movement forward to the
horizontal plane), exaggeration of one component of the
posture (open bill), and by the development of stereotypy.
In summary, there appear to be extremely few, if any,
behavior patterns that are absolutely fixed (e.g., CV = 0%
or even less than 1.0%). Indeed, according to Eibi-
Eibesfeldt (1975), the implication of absolute morphological
rigidity of diplays was unfortunate and not originally
intended. It would be misleading to concentrate solely on
attempting to "prove" stereotypy or "fixity" without dealing
with patent variability. Various factors may favor vari¬
ability in the characteristics of displays. For example,
variable aspects may be anti-monotony devices (Hartshorne,
1973), since too much stereotypy may cause the receiver to
habituate to the signal before responding in a manner
appropriate for the sender. Barlow (1968) suggested that it
might be more correct to drop the word "fixed" and substi¬
tute the word "modal" (to refer to the most frequently
occurring form of a given act). The term modal action
pattern was meant to embody the idea that, while not
strictly fixed, these behavior patterns could be identified
in a reliable statistical way. Barlow's point is an impor¬
tant one when one's main interest is in choosing categories
for data collection rather than in a particular theoretical
framework. Quantitative data from this study supported
Barlow's suggestion.

46
The frequent occurrence of behavior patterns having the
following characteristics can be used when describing modal
action patterns: (1) they are species-typical, (2) the
component movements that make them up occur together either
simultaneously or sequentially with a high degree of pre¬
dictability and (3) they are repeatedly recognizable. In
addition to the terminological problems, it is important to
stress that the "meaning" of the value of CV's will
undoubtedly vary from species to species and from act to
act.
Description of Visual Displays
The following is a list and description of the visual
displays seen during the course of this study. Similarities
between the displays of the three species suggested homol¬
ogous relationships and permitted a parallel categorization.
The names of the displays were chosen to be as descriptive
as possible without implying motivation or function to the
behavior patterns.
However, before a discussion of agonistic behavior can
be undertaken, the normal body position of martins must be
described so that it may be compared with the principal
display patterns (Figure 2). All three martin species sat
in an upright position during nonagonistic situations. The
neck was withdrawn, the bill was held approximately horizon¬
tal, and the feathers were relaxed. The wings were held
close to the body and the tail was stationary.

47
Figure 2. Postures associated with loafing or inactivity:
A. Purple Martin; B. Gray-breasted Martin;
C. Caribbean Martin.

48
Head Forward Thrust
In all three species of martins, the Head Forward
Thrust display and its variants were found to be the chief
displays preceding attack. In the most common posture, a
bird assumed a horizontal crouch with the plumage sleeked
and the bill pointed at the opponent. This display preceded
an attack and appeared in territorial defense during the
approach of a potential intruder.
Purple Martin. The display was divided into two cate¬
gories, the low-intensity Head Forward Thrust and the
high-intensity Head Forward Thrust (Figure 3A dnd 3B). In
the low-intensity Head Forward Thrust, the closed bill was
directed horizontally toward the opponent (92% of film
records, 8% open bill; n=29), the neck was partially
extended (96%, 4% retracted), and the legs were flexed (98%)
with the body held in a horizontal position (94%, 6%
upright). The feathers of the crest, breast, and back were
sleeked (92%, 8% crest raised), with the wing and tail
feathers continually flicked (100%). This posture was
maintained for at least 4 seconds (x = 4.9 seconds of field
records; n=63). The response of an intruder was to advance
no further (81% of field records; n=218) or leave (19%).
Cher (p. Ill) and Chortle (p. 116) calls often accompanied
this display (70% of field records; n=227).
Since a bird giving this display most often remained
stationary (65% of field records, attacked 31%, retreated
4%, n=379), the display may be interpreted as suggesting a

F
G
Figure 3. Displays associated with threat behavior:
A. low intensity Head Forward Thrust (Purple
Martin); B. high intensity Head Forward Thrust
(Purple Martin); C. low intensity Head Forward
Thrust (Gray-breasted Martin); D. high intensity
Head Forward Thrust (Gray-breasted Martin);
E. variation of the high intensity Head Foward
Thrust (Gray-breasted Martin); F. low intensity
Head Forward Thrust (Caribbean Martin); G. high
intensity Head Forward Thrust (Caribbean Martin).

50
weak tendency to attack. Thirty-six percent of all agon¬
istic encounters ended with the winner showing low-intensity
Head Forward thrust (n=153). Sixty-four percent showed no
visual display (n=153).
In the high-intensity Head Forward Thrust, the bill was
held closed (98% of film records, 2% open bill; n=24) in
line with the opponent (100%), and the body was always
horizontal (100%). The signaler sleeked the feathers of its
crest and body (98%, 2% just crest), extended its neck (91%,
9% retraced), and moved forward in the Lunge, striking the
target bird on its head or body (38%) if it failed to
retreat (62%).
In 94% of film records (n=18) of high intensity encoun¬
ters that preceded the Lunge, birds held the wings away from
the side with the primaries backward and with the wing and
tail feathers stationary (6% of the time wings against body
and tail and wing feathers flicked), and gave Hee-hee calls
(p. 87). In 79% of the field records (n=379), the high-
intensity display was followed by the opponent retreating or
remaining stationary (21% returned the attack).
Low-intensity Head Forward Thrust was directed by males
toward both males (83% of field records; n=441) and females
(17%). However, high-intensity Head Forward Thrust by males
was never directed toward females. Both head Forward
displays occurred 89% of the time at the boundaries of
territories when resident males were less than 20 cm apart
(n=217). The displays ceased 97% of the time when one bird

51
returned to the center of his territory or entered his
nesting compartment.
If two neighboring males showed either of the head
forward displays later in the season while young were being
fed, only 17% of these encounters ended in aggressive
interaction (n=133). Most displays (83%) ended with the
birds remaining motionless and at least one bird bill-wiping
(n= 97) .
Gray-breasted Martin. GM assumed low- and high-
intensity Head Forward Thrust displays similar to those of
PM, but in GM these displays were more elaborate. In the
low-intensity Head Forward Thrust, the displaying individual
oriented on a perch so that the axis of its body ran paral¬
lel with the surface on which it was perched (87% of film
records, 13% upright; n=29), the neck was extended (93%,
7% retracted), and the wings and tail were flicked upward
repeatedly (95%, 5% remained still), making the bird appear
larger than normal (Figure 3C). Moreover, the feathers of
the cheek and crest were raised (96%, 4% sleeked). This
component of the display was noticeably absent in the PM low
intensity display posture.
At high intensity, the GM held the body parallel to the
surface and thrust the head and bill forward below the level
of the back (94% of film records, 6% other body variations;
n=16), held the wings just free of the flank feathers, and
partly spread the primaries below the line of the tail (88%,
12% above the tail line; Figure 3D) .

52
Zurr calls (p. 97) were given by the birds in low-
intensity thrust and Zwat calls (p. 96) were given during
high intensity thrust. High-intensity Head Forward Thrust
in the GM, as in PM, was never directed toward females.
A slightly different variation of the high-intensity
Head Forward Thrust seen in the PM was observed in the GM
(Figure 3E). During this display variant, the neck was
retracted (88% of film records, 12% extended; n=32), the
legs extended (91%, 9% retracted), the bill opened (94%,
6% closed), the body feathers sleeked (100%), and the
carpals raised as the wrist was rotated outward (100%).
Birds that gave the carpal raised variation always attacked
opponents (n=32).
Caribbean Martin. As in the PM and GM, the Head
Forward Thrust in the CM varied in intensity and was divided
into two categories (Figure 3F and 3G). In the
low-intensity Head Forward Thrust, the closed bill was
directed toward the opponent (99% of the field records,
1% directed away; n=32), the neck was not extended (84%,
16% extended), the legs were flexed (85%, 15% retracted),
and the body was held in a horizontal posture with the wings
and tail continually flicked (100%).
In high-intensity thrust, the bill pointed straight out
(93% of field records, 7% bill to side; n=47), and the neck
was stretched (100%). At times, the wings were rotated
(12%) as in the carpal raised variation of the GM. On the
part of the attacking bird, the low intensity thrust was

53
accompanied by Wheet calls (p. 101), whereas the high
intensity thrust was accompanied by Kweet calls (p. 103).
Gaping
Gaping in all three species was initiated by any
conspecific's movement close to the territory boundary. The
body posture was very similar to that of the Head Forward
Thrust (Figure 4A), except that the bill was held wide open
for two or three seconds (PM: x=2.8 sec., n=31; GM:
x=2.6 sec., n=30; CM: x=3.4 sec., n=13). The body was
inclined forward from the pelvis (91% of the field records,
9% more upright; n=60), and the neck extended forward
(100%). The wings were held by the side of the body (85%,
n=60), but were sometimes spread out (for balance) if the
martin moved forward (15%). Both sexes used the Gape. The
Gape may be silent or accompanied by a Rattle call (p. 91)
in the PM and a Rattle call (p. 100) in the GM. CM appear
to gape silently.
In all three species, mutual Gaping between mates was
common early in the breeding season (Figure 4B). This
behavior was observed mainly at the nest hole when a male or
female landed near its mate. One bird often took the offen¬
sive while its mate was defensive. In offensive Gaping, the
martin leaned forward with the most weight on its phalanges.
It sometimes sidled forward in small steps or remained
motionless. In defensive Gaping, the body was held back,

54
D
Figure 4. Displays associated with threat behavior:
A. Gaping; B. Gaping between mates;
C. Defensive Gaping; D. Lunge.

55
the neck withdrawn; the bird sometimes moved backward or
turned aside while returning the Gape (Figure 4C).
Bill-Snapping
Bill-snapping in all three species consisted of loud
clicking produced as the mandibles were forcibly brought
together. This display was given from the head Forward
Thrust (72%, n=25) or Lunge (28%). The body was held
horizontally (89%, n=25) or slightly downward (11%) and the
bill was snapped as an audible reinforcement of threat.
Bill-snapping was used by martins in their territories
(87%, n=25), but occasionally occurred outside the terri¬
tories (for example, when a martin was approached too
closely while resting on a perch, 13% of the time). It was
directed at strangers moving past the territory (10%, n=20)
or at neighbors moving about in adjacent territories (90%,
n=20). It also was directed at interspecific intruders,
such as House Sparrows (Passer domesticus, n=31) and Star¬
lings (Sturnus vulgaris, n=13). Bill-snapping also was used
in conjunction with Gaping in both interspecific inter¬
actions and interactions between members of a mated pair.
This display was possibly a ritualized intention to bite.
Lunge
In all three species, when a high-intensity Head
Forward Thrust did not dislodge an opponent, the attacker
frequently proceeded directly at the opponent. The

56
high-intensity Head Forward Thrust led to the Lunge in 58%
of field records for the PM (42% remain inplace, n=207), 32%
in the GM (68% remain inplace, n=193), and 47% in the CM
(53% remain inplace, n=12). The most conspicuous feature of
the Lunge was the forward movement. In this display, the
bird moved toward the stimulus object with a sudden rush and
then stopped, with head and neck outstretched, and the bill
directed at the opponent and slightly agape (100%,
Figure 4D). At the extension of the Lunge the wings were
twisted upward over the tail, and in 36% (n=309) of all
observations the mandibles were closed, producing a snap
that was audible at distances greater than 10 m (64%
produced no sound).
The Lunge was an attack that was generally sufficient
to make an opponent flee (Tables 6 & 7). If the opponent
failed to retreat, a fight resulted. The Lunge merged into
a fight in 19% of field records in the PM (81% the opponent
retreated, n=201), 11% in the GM (89% opponent retreated,
n=194), and 15% in the CM (85% opponent retreated, n=16).
High-Up Displays
High-Up displays were considered to be retreat behavior
because they were directed away from an attacking bird and
were given by a retreating bird. The High-Up postures were
divided into two broad categories: Withdraw High-Up and
Alert High-Up. Alert and Withdraw High-Up displays were
performed by both sexes.

57
The Withdraw High-Up display included the turning away
or lateral body presentation, avoidance, or fleeing of a
martin relative to the approach of another individual. The
feathers of the body and head were erect, the head was held
above the horizontal plane, the bill pointed downward, and
the neck held backward (Figure 5A). During a territorial
encounter the bird showed Withdraw High-Up followed by
staying
(PM:
56%, n=380; GM:
61%, n=
220; CM:
to
few
records)
or
retreating (PM:
44%, GM:
39%, CM:
to
few
records)
or
retreating (PM:
44%, GM:
39%, CM:
to
few
records), but in all three species the birds never attacked.
Purple Martin. A PM may show Withdraw High-Up from an
opponent in several different ways depending on the
agonistic encounter. A retreating martin performed one of
several behavior patterns, which included rocking back on
the tarsi while retracting the neck (93% of film records,
7% extended the neck; n=31), leaning to one side (78% of
film records, 12% straight ahead, n=31), turning the head or
the head and body away from the aggressor (84% of film
records, 16% toward the opponent, n=31), sidling away, and
flying away from the aggressor. Sidling, sideways movement
either toward or away from another individual, usually took
place during periods when the martins were sitting on the
birdhouse or on a telephone wire. In some cases the head
feathers were raised for a few seconds during sidling
movements.

58
Figure 5. Displays associated with appeasement behavior:
A. Withdraw High-Up; B. Alert High-Up; C. White
Badge Signal.

59
I saw the Withdraw High-Up posture given in the follow¬
ing contexts: (1) by a female when sitting on the house in
the presence of a male other than her own mate; (2) by a
bird shifting its position when another bird had landed
nearby; (3) between members of a pair when they were near
each other and either bird moved toward the other; and
(4) when one bird was threatened by another bird with a Head
Forward Thrust.
Gray-breasted Martin. In the GM the Withdraw High-Up
was not as elaborate as in the PM, and often appeared as an
alert posture seen in many birds immediately before they
ever flew in alarm, after a supplanting attack, or in birds
that had just avoided an attack.
The Withdraw High-Up of the GM involved raising the
feathers (82% of film records, 18% relaxed; n=ll), hunching
the body (91%, 9% upright, n=ll), and assuming a generally
rounded appearance. This also was in many respects the
opposite of the Head Forward Thrust, and suggested that the
bird was avoiding an aggressive encounter (see section on
analysis of displays).
Caribbean Martin. Withdraw High-Up in the CM fre¬
quently involved a turning away from the dominant individual
(88% of field records? 12% turned halfway; n=27). The bird
stood with the body vertical (92%, 8% not upright, n=27),
neck extended and bill pointed upward (96%, 4% bill pointed
down, n=27), so that the breast was exposed and the head was
held rigid. The tail was not spread (96%). Several times

60
males in boundary encounters perched on palms or thatched
roofs with their bills turned away from their neighbors.
Alert High-Up postures were given in the presence of
alarming or novel stimuli, such as those eliciting loco¬
motion. In all three species, when a bird suddenly detected
a predator, a loud harsh noise, or a sudden change in
movement of another animal or object, the activity in which
it was involved immediately ceased. During the Alert
High-Up the head was raised or directed toward the stimulus
and the neck extended out (Figure 4B).
In the Alert High-Up posture the bird stood erect with
compressed plumage and with the head and bill in line with
the rest of the body. The wings were held close to the body
and the legs became very straight. The birds remained in
this exaggerated posture for about four seconds, longer than
in any other display (PM: x=4.3 seconds, n=132; GM:
x=5.1 seconds, n=75; CM: x=4.5 seconds, n=23). Once the
alarm stimulus was know, birds of all three species flicked
their wings and tails and raised their crest feathers for
the length of the disturbance. Frequently the PM, GM, and
CM uttered Cher (p. 83, Cheur (p. 94), and Zwoot (p. 100)
calls respectively.
Claiming-Reclaiming
Males of all three species had a display which attrac¬
ted females and advertised territory ownership. Claiming-
Reclaiming involved a flight whereby the male attracted his

61
mate or potential mate to the nest site (Johnston & Hardy,
1962). PM males flew from the breeding area in a wide arc
(20-70 meter diameter, n=278), which could vary in flight
path, circle size, duration, and flight posture. Besides
following a circular course (10-30 meter diameter, n=21),
CMs also flew a figure-8 (n=9) or a double lap circle
(n=15). GMs showed both circular flights (25-60 meter
diameter, n=17) and short direct flights (n=29) in which a
male came close to striking a sitting female before return¬
ing to the breeding site. On these 29 occasions, GM males
flew so close to their mates that the female was forced to
either retreat or fly from the perch. GM females reponded
to these two kinds of flight encounters by either following
the male to his nest hole (n=26), moving to another section
of steel pipe (n=16), or leaving the area (n=4).
A Claiming-Reclaiming display ended abruptly in all
three species with the male returning to the nest site to
repeatedly enter and emerge from the nest hole (PM:
x=2.6 bouts of emerging and entering, n=38; GM: x=2.7,
n=29; CM: x=1.3, n=8). This behavior ceased when the male
thrust his head out of the entrance hole and sang several
songs in succession (PM: x=2.1 songs per bout, n=238; GM:
x=1.8, n=25; CM: x=2.8, n=39). At the end of the song in
PMs and GMs, but not in CMs, the bill was opened and the
yellow mouth lining was flashed in stark contrast to the
rest of the bird's head. CMs did not end songs with an open
bill (see discussion under vocalizations).

62
White Badge Signal
Badges are characteristics of an animal's appearance
that have been modified to be informative "adornments"
(Rohwer 1982). Badges are more persistent than displays,
because displays last only as long as the behavior is
sustained. Both sexes of all three species of martins had a
patch of white feathers on the anterior flank that normally
was concealed by the dark feathers of the middorsal region
of the spinal tract (Johnson and Hardy 1962, this study).
These bold plumage markings can be seen at the level of the
tertial feathers on either side of the midline whenever
birds preened the head or mantle (Figure 6C). Size and
shape of the white badge varied considerably among individ¬
uals of the three species. The white patch was highly
organized, contrasted with the dark background feathers, and
could be displayed or covered at will; thus, Johnston and
Hardy (1962) hypothesized that in the PM the white badge
functioned as a social signal associated with preening. All
my observations supported this hypothesis for the CM and GM.
My observations for these species showed that martins
displayed the badge only after preening (65%, n=85) or
during sunning postures (35%, n=85).
The white badge also appeared to signal staying inplace
behavior. Birds showing the white badge, as a class,
remained stationary much more frequently than birds that did
2
not exhibit the badge (x =26, df=32; p < 0.05). The badge
also functioned as an appeasement signal by inhibiting

63
agonistic encounters and permitting close contact among
2
loafing birds (x =23, df=24; p < 0.05). Several aspects of
martin behavior supported this interpretation: (1) when the
badge was uncovered, birds v/ere preening or had completed
preening and were loafing or sunning (n=85) ; (2) partici¬
pants were positioned in parallel or at angles of less than
90 degrees where there was little prolonged direct front
orientation or approach (87%, 13% frontal orientation,
n=85), and (3) at no time was the badge revealed in any
agonistic situation (100%, n=85).
Similar signaling badges that function to inhibit
behavioral interactions have been described for young Water
Rails, Rallus aquaticus (Lorenz 1952), White-necked Ravens,
Corvus cryptoleucus (Johnston 1958) , and numerous Accipters
(Hafner & Hafner, 1977).
Fighting
Fighting in all three species usually was associated
with defense of a breeding site or mate-guarding. Fighting
was most frequent among males early in the breeding season.
At these times exploration of nest sites resulted in much
movement in the breeding areas, and males trespassed while
courting or watching another male's mate. Fighting among
females occurred only during pair formation, when a female
crossed a territorial boundary. Fighting did not result in
noticeable body damage, and in most cases was of short

64
duration (although see Allen & Nice, 1952; Bent, 1942;
Brown, 1977).
Purple Martin. The circumstance for an encounter that
led to a fight was trespassing by a nonresident male onto
another male's territory. Of 256 encounters between
adjacent territorial males, 249 started when a male
approached a neighbor's mate as she was perching at the
birdhouse or gathering nesting material. The remaining
seven encounters resulted from males exploring the birdhouse
and in which attraction to a female did not seem involved.
When a male trespassed onto another bird's territory,
the owner adopted an agonistic posture directed toward, or
attacked, the moving male. The following examples of
encounters between adult males White and Yellow at the
Gainesville Country Club nesting colony are given to illus¬
trate some of the sequences of events that fighting can
typically take. The flow diagram in Figure 6 is not com¬
plete, but is intended only as a suggestion of the course
agonistic behavior may take early in the breeding season.
Encounters of more than two birds were difficult to follow
or record accurately and were therefore not included.
Male White was standing on the porch outside his nest
compartment in an upright position. Male Yellow was in
flight returning to the house and was about 10 m from the
house. On noticing Yellow, White started calling in low-
intensity Head Forward Thrust directed toward approaching
male Yellow (n=51). When Yellow landed about 10 cm away,

Figure 6. Fighting interactions between male martins.
o-\
Ln

66
both birds bill-thrusted toward each other and then turned
away, presenting their sides. If however, Yellow approached
White, White usually responded in one of several ways:
(1) White flew away (n=5). This was sometimes followed by
chasing behavior (n=2) , or Yellow landed in the spot just
vacated (n=3); (2) White entered his nest compartment (n=4)
or shifted his position on the perch a few centimeters away
and gave a low-intensity Head Forward Thrust. After a few
seconds, the posturing ended and the birds remained perched
a few centimeters apart; (3) White remained perched, but did
not posture; Yellow came in and attacked (n=17). A fight
ended with White flying off and Yellow chasing after him
(n=14). On only three out of 17 occasions did Yellow fly
off leaving White in the same position; (4) White remained
perched, and immediately showed high-intensity Head Forward
Thrust (n=15). Yellow then did one of three things: (a)
attacked-with a fight ensuing (n=3), (b) retreated and
perched more than 10 cm away (n=10), or (c) withdrew less
than 16 cm away with both birds giving Withdraw High-Up
(n=2); and (5) White flew up and met Yellow in the air
(n=3). During these fights both birds were facing each
other, striking with their bills, wings, and feet until they
struck the ground, whereupon the fight ended.
Once nesting began, if the encounter took place in
front of the nest compartments, fights seemed to follow
two less elaborate patterns. A resident adult male some¬
times landed an the perch in front of his nesting room, in

67
which case he either advanced and immediately engaged the
intruder in fight (61%, n=129); or the resident male entered
his room, and poked his head out and called or sang (39% of
these observations). The bird then either emerged to perch
in front of the nest room or remained stationary in the nest
room aperture.
Gray-breasted Martin. In Trinidad where nearest pairs
of GM often nested up to 20 m apart, male GM flew directly
at their opponents, forcing the attacked bird to move, on
59 occasions. The attacked bird responded in one of three
ways: (1) it flew immediately away, with the attacker
flying after and chasing it (n=24), (2) it shifted its
position a few feet away (n=26), or (3) it flew up and met
the attacker in mid-air (n=9).
Two forms of fighting were observed in GM. One was the
aerial fight in which two males ascended about 10 m from the
perching pipes, each had a foothold on the other combined
with feather-pulling and wing-beating. The birds would then
descend, not separating until striking the ground or enter¬
ing the water, at which point all fighting ceased (n=37).
The other type of fight was a Lunge on the pipe perches in
which the two birds pecked each other's heads and body areas
until one individual broke off in retreat (n=68). A winner
adopted an erect posture, calling as it sat on the spot
vacated a few seconds before. The bird then began preening
to rearrange feathers that may have become displaced during
the attack.

68
Caribbean Martins
Fights of the CM did not differ appreciably from those
described for PM and GM, except that fighting occurred at
greater heights around nest sits in palm fronbs. In Tobago,
I recorded details of 16 intraspecific fights and saw a few
other short agonistic episodes. Less fighting in CM than in
GM and PM may reflect the greater CM minimum internest
distance (> 30 m as opposed to < 20 m in the GM and 10 cm in
the PM). Physical opportunities to interact decreased as
the distance between birds increased.
Analysis of Visual Communication
Sequences in Defense of Territory
The behavior of individual martins consisted of both
individual acts and sequences of acts. A behavioral act was
a display only if it conveyed a signal to another animal and
was specifically adapted for that purpose (see Hinde, 1970;
Krebs & Davies, 1981; Tinbergen, 1952). Only PM and GM
provided sufficient data to permit me to analyze their
visual displays.
In both species, any of the seven displays listed in
Table 3 could occur as an initial response in an interaction
with another martin. Most interactions were brief
(x=2.8 seconds; n=289 field records) and consisted of only
one or two displays. The most frequent initial responses
were low- and high-intensity Head Forward Thrust (PM males:

69
Table 3. Frequencies of Initial Displays.
Display
(Proportion of total encounters)
PM GM PM GM
Male Male Female Female
Low intensity Head Forward
0.25
0.24
0.32
0
.43
High intensity Head Forward
0.14
0.18
0.16
0
.21
Gaping
0.09
0.09
0.03
0
.07
Bill-Shaping
0.04
0.03
0.02
0
.01
Lunge
0.08
0.06
0.07
0
.01
Alert High-Up
0.15
0.19
0.14
0
.14
Withdraw High-Up
0.25
0.20
0.26
0
. 13
Total probability
1.00
1.00
1.00
1
.00
Total encounters
1537
1089
86
134

70
39%, n=1537 field records, females 46%, n=86; GM males:
42%, n=1089 field records, females: 64%, n=134), and Alert
and Withdraw High-Up (PM males: 40%, n=1537 field records,
females: 40%, n=86; GM males: 39%, n=1089 field records,
females: 27%, n=134). The probability of the occurrence of
these responses was increased when the conditions of an
encounter were specified (Table 4). Low-intensity head
Forward Thrust was the most frequent response to a martin
pausing near the territory (PM: 51%, n=291 field records;
GM: 39%, n=257) or to a martin flying by the breeding site
(PM: 28%, n=279; GM: 23%, n=284). Alert High-Up was the
most frequent response to a distant disturbance (PM: 52%,
n=279; GM: 61%, n=284). Withdraw High-Up occurred most
commonly in encounters with neighbors who retaliated in
response to an initial challenge (PM: 54%, n=214; GM: 43%,
n=173). High-intensity Head Forward Thrust, Gaping, and
Bill-snapping occurred less frequently and were responses to
intruders entering or pausing near the territory (See
Table 4). Gaping was followed by a Lunge when the intruder
approached to within bill-striking range. The Lunge also
was used by some martins against neighbors pausing near the
territorial boundary.
The time elapsed since the last encounter and movement
of the stimulus influenced the initial response of martins
(Figure 7A-E). When an intruder approached slowly, a
territorial martin responded with low-intensity Head Forward
Thrust (69%, a=135 field records) or Gaping (31%, n=135

Table 4
Incidence of Single Displays from Different Types of Encounters
Probabilities from Separate Encounters
Close
Neighbor
Distant
Neighbor
Neighbors
Challenge
Neighbors
Pause
Display
PM
GM
PM
GM
PM
GM
PM
GM
Low intensity
0.27
0.32
0.28
0.23
0.14
0.26
0.51
0.39
Head Forward
High intensity
0.14
0.19
0.15
0.09
0.06
0.19
0.22
0.29
Head Forward
Gaping
0.09
0.06
0.02
0.04
0.03
0.01
0.03
0.01
Bill-snapping
0.07
0.03
0.02
0.03
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.00
Lunge
0.11
0.14
0.00
0.00
0.13
0.07
0.09
0.16
Alert High-Up
0.14
0.16
0.52
0.61
0.09
0.03
0.05
0.07
Withdraw High-Up
0.18
0.10
0.01
0.00
0.54
0.43
0.08
0.08
Total probability
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Total encounters
393
368
279
284
214
173
291
257

(A)
Territorial
martin
Intruder
low intensity
Head Forward Thrust (n=94)
f or Gaping (n=41) \
approach stay
slowly
(B)
Terri toria 1
martin
Intruder
high intensity
Head Forward Thrust (n=72)
/" or
approach
suddenly
Bi ll-snapping
(n=l2)
\
retreat
(C)
Territorial
martin
Intruder
approach
slowly
/
low intensity
Head Forward Thrust
\ f. /
continue
approach
high intensity
Head Forward Thrust
\
stay
(n=39)
(D) Territorial high intensity
martin
Head Forward Thrust
Lunge stay
Intruder
./
approach
\ / \ /
retreat retreat
(n=41)
slowly
si ightly
(E) Territorial
martin
Intruder
Lunge
approach
slowly
/
\
retreat
(n=27)
Figure 7. Models of interactions between male martins.
(n=326)
ro

73
field records; Figure 7A). If the intruder approached sud¬
denly, a resident male responded with high-intensity Head
Forward Thrust (86%, n=84 field records) and Bill-snapping
(14%, n=84 field records; Figure 7B). Low-intensity Head
Forward Thrust was followed by high-intensity Head Forward
Thrust when the intruding martin moved closer (Figure 7C).
High-intensity Head Forward Thrust was followed by Lunge
when the rival martin moved away only slightly or slowly
(Figure 7D) .
Sometimes the same type of approach elicited different
reactions. Generally this could be attributed to the
previous stimulation of the territorial martin. A male who
had been undisturbed for some time might show only low-
intensity Head Forward Thrust (Figure 7A), whereas a male
who had just repelled a martin at a territorial boundary
reacted more aggressively to the approach of an intruder
(Figure 7E).
Gaping, Bill-snapping, and Withdraw High-Up tended to
occur at the end of sequences rather than at the beginning
(Table 5). Specifically, these displays occurred at the end
of sequences in which Lunge had not been elicited; thus,
they did not precede attack. High-intensity Head Forward
Thrust also occurred at the end of sequences but was
followed by attack when a neighbor approached or entered the
territory (See Tables 6 & 7). Low-intensity Head Forward
Thrust and Alert High-Up occurred at the beginning of
sequences rather than at the end. Both were seldom used

74
Table 5. Proportion of Displays Used as Initial Versus
Terminal Responses in Two-Display Sequences.
Position in Sequence
PM
GM
Display
Begin %
End %
N
Begin %
End %
N
Low intensity
Head Forward
61
39
131
74
26
124
High intensity
Head Forward
34
76
104
39
61
93
Gaping
18
82
34
22
78
36
Bill-snapping
6
94
28
11
89
20
Lunge
17
83
59
6
94
32
Alert High-Up
81
19
93
92
8
85
Withdraw
High-Up
25
75
142
13
87
69

Table 6. Purple Martins:
and Receiver.
Display of
Signaler
and the
Subsequent Behavior
of the Signaler
Subsequent Behavior
of Signaler*
Subsequent Behavior
of Receiver*
Display
N
Attack
Retreat
Stay
N
Attack
Retreat
Stay
Low-intensity
Head Forward
379
31
4
65
379
2
17
81
High-intensity
Head Forward
207
58
4
38
207
1
59
40
Gaping
142
52
8
40
142
2
25
78
Bill-snapping
76
25
5
70
76
0
21
79
Lunge
120
100
0
0
120
2
95
3
Alert High-Up
233
12
10
78
233
7
11
82
Withdraw
380
0
44
56
380
8
9
83
*Percent of total occurrences.

Table 7. Gray-Breasted Martins: Display of Signaler and the Subsequent Behavior of the
Signaler and Receiver.
Subsequent Behavior
of Signaler*
Subsequent Behavior
of Receiver*
Display
N
Attack
Retreat
Stay
N
Attack
Retreat
Stay
Low-intensity
262
36
1
63
262
5
14
81
Head Forward
High-intensity
193
32
0
68
193
1
65
34
Head Forward
Gaping
103
42
2
56
103
0
27
73
Bill-snapping
33
21
0
79
33
6
15
79
Lunge
62
100
0
0
62
2
98
0
Alert High-Up
216
8
3
89
216
2
4
94
Withdraw
220
0
39
61
220
9
5
86
*Percent of total occurrences.

77
within the stationary attacking range, and thus were seldom
followed by attack.
Relation of Displays to Subsequent Behavior
This analysis was designed to determine if one could
predict what a bird would do depending upon its display.
Using an approach developed by Stokes (1962a, 1962b) and
Balph (1977), I recorded the frequency of the seven displays
and the subsequent reaction of the bird (Tables 6 & 7).
Interactions were considered to have three phases: attack,
when one bird drove the other away; staying, when the two
birds did not move away; and retreat, when a bird moved away
from another in response to an attack.
Tables 6 and 7 give the probabilities of particular
displays leading to attack, retreat, or stay. In this
study, low-intensity Head Forward Thrust indicated that a PM
would subsequently attack 31% of the time (n=379 field
records) and a GM 36% of the time (n=262 field records), but
there was an even higher probability of staying (PM: 65%,
n=379 field records; GM 63%, n=262 field records). In the
PM, high-intensity Head Forward Thrust suggested a transi¬
tion between low-intensity Head Forward Thrust and Lunge
since it was associated with probabilities of attack (58%,
n=207 field records) and of staying (38%, n=207 field
records) that were intermediately between those for low-
intensity Head Forward Thrust and Lunge. When high-
intensity Head Forward Thrust occurred in the GM, however

78
the predominant tendency was to stay (68%, n=193 field
records). A GM attacked from the Gaping position 52% of the
time (n=142 field records) and from the Bill-snapping
position 25% of the time (n=76 field records). Lunge had
the highest probability of being followed by attack in both
species (PM: 100%, n=120 field records, GM: 100%, n=62
field records). Alert High-Up was most often associated
with staying (PM: 78%, n=233 field records; GM: 89%,
n=216 field records), but also had a low probability of
attack (PM: 12%, n=233 field records; GM: 8%, n=216 field
records). A martin showing Withdraw High-Up never attacked
(n=380 field records) and was likely to retreat (44%,
n=380 field records) if approached more closely.
On the few occasions when recipients retaliated (PM:
22 observations, n=1537 field records; GM: 25 observations,
n=1089 field records), the signaler then responded with
continued attack (PM: 73%, n=22 field records; GM: 72%,
n=25 field records) or retreat (PM: 27%, n=22 field
records; GM: 25%, n=25 field records). Most agonistic
encounters were of the attack-retreat kind and once ended
were rarely repeated (PM: 98%; 2% were interactions that
continued, n=280 field records; GM: 96%; 4% were inter¬
actions that continued, n=84 field records).
Effectiveness of Displays
To determine the effectiveness of the displays, I
measured the valence of a given display to the behavior of a

79
rival martin at a territorial boundary. Most encounters
were initiated not because intruders trespassed onto the
territory, but because of their movement near the boundary.
In both the PM and GM, the assumption of a given posture by
one member of an interacting pair was followed by a number
of behavior patterns in the other martin. Analysis of the
distributions of following acts showed highly significant
changes in the probability distribution of acts dependent
upon the preceding act. That is, execution of displays did
change the behavior of recipient individuals.
Three displays (low-intensity Head Forward Thrust,
Gaping, and Bill-snapping) elicited stay or retreat of
intruders (Table 6 and 7). When a PM or GM gave low-
intensity Head Forward Thrust, the recipient subsequently
stayed 81% of the time (PM: n=379 field records; GM:
n=262 field records) and rarely attacked (PM: 2%, n=379
field records; GM: 5%, n=262 field records). For Gaping
(PM: n=142 field records; GM: n=103 field records) and
Bill-snapping (PM: n=76 field records; GM: n=33 field
records) in both species the probability of subsequent
staying of the recipient was 73% or better and the likeli¬
hood of being attacked by the recipient was 6% less. The
two responses most effective in driving intruders away were
the high-intensity Head Forward Thrust and the Lunge
(Table 6 and 7). Lunge had the greatest probability of
eliciting retreat in the recipient (_> 95% in both species;

80
PM: n=120 field records; GM: n=62 field records), and the
lowest probability of being followed by retreat from the
signaler (<_ 5%) .
Alert (PM: n=233 field records; GM: n=216 field
records) and Withdraw High-Up (PM: n=380 field records; GM:
n=220 field records) had the lowest probability of eliciting
retreat (<_ 11%) and the greatest probability of eliciting
stay (_> 82%). They also were the best indicators of sub¬
sequent retreat by the signaler (Tables 6 and 7). Since
Withdraw High-Up was effective in eliciting staying from
intruders, it was surprising that most attacks from rival
martins occurred after this display. The higher probability
of attack may be due in part to conditions associated with
high density in the breeding area and the resultant forced
proximity.
Competent Structure of Displays
In order to determine quantitatively if certain behav¬
ioral components were associated with one another, I
assessed the responses of other martins to those components.
I recorded 312 encounters for the PM and 239 encounters for
the GM that were used in tabulating the results of agonistic
interactions. Each display consisted of a combination of
different components, of which the following were recorded.
(1) Body position: only two categories were
distinguished—the martin stood either upright or

81
horizontal. An upright body position was characteris¬
tic of reduced aggressiveness and increased retreating
behavior. A horizontal position indicated a tendency
to retreat by opponents.
(2) Body feathers: the body feathers of the
breast, back and flanks were erected, sleeked, or
relaxed. Major feather erection occurred only when the
martins were retreating, or showing movements of
intention to retreat. Sleeked feathers were most often
seen when a male approached or threatened a potential
intruder.
(3) Crest feathers: the feathers of the head
were raised or lowered to varying degrees. There
appeared to be considerable variation in the extent of
crest erection during all of the above displays.
(4) Bill position: the bill was either opened or
closed. In some threat displays the bill was opened
wide, as in the Gape and Lunge displays. In retreat,
or retreat intention movements, the bill was usually
closed.
(5) Wing position: the wings were held against
the body when martins were loafing. When martins were
disturbed, the wings were repeatedly flicked away from
the body (PM: x=2.4 cm, n=15 film records; GM:
x=2.3 cm, n=7 field records). The wings were extended
(PM: x=1.8 cm, n=7 film records; GM: x=1.8 cm,

82
n=3 film records) when martins were moving forward in a
Lunge and when moving away in Withdraw High-Up.
(6) Tail position: the tail was held stationary
and kept in line with the body when martins were
loafing. The tail was flicked up and down in a verti¬
cal plane when martins were startled or disturbed.
(7) Orientation: a martin faced the rival or
turned at any angle away from it. Facing the rival
increased the probability of attack. Body positions
turned at some angle away from the rival were associ¬
ated with an increased probability of retreat.
Of the threat displays recognized in this study, each
had a different component structure. The first step in this
analysis was to record the frequency of occurrence of the
seven different behavioral components and to determine the
degree of correlation between these components (Tables 8 and
9). For the seven behavioral components there were 21 pos¬
sible two-factor combinations. I found a correlation
(p < 0.05) between components in 19 out of 21 two-factor
combinations for the PM and 20 out of 21 two-factor combina¬
tions for the GM. Thus when a martin raised its body
feathers, its crest was generally raised at the same time,
and a martin with the bill open almost always faced its
rival. Even more striking was the observation that some
components rarely occurred with others. In PMs and GMs a
horizontal body position rarely occurred with body feathers
erect, crest erect, or during facing away (15 observations,

Table 8. Simultaneous Occurrence of Behavioral Components Given by Territorial Male
Purple Martins to Intruders. (2x2) levels of significance NS = p>0.05,
xx = p<0.05. (Adapted from Stokes, 1962)
Body Body
Body
Horizontal
Body
Upright
Feathers Feathers Crest
Sleeked Erect Sleeked
Crest
Erect
Bill Bill
Open Closed
Wings
Flicked
Wings
Downs
Tail
Flicked
Tail
1 Down
Facing Facing
Rival Away
Attack
Reaction
Retreat
Stay
Body horizontal
107
103 4 106
1
43 64
31
76
29
78
103 4
54
13
40
XX
XX
NS
NS
XX
XX
Body Upright
—
205
55 150 42
163
9 196
83
122
45
160
87 118
0
126
79
Bodv feather
158 101
57
48 110
112
46
oO
98
1 33 25
54
0
104
Sleeked
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
Body teachers
1 54 47
107
4 150
2
152
14
140
57 97
0
139
15
Erect
Crest Sleeked
148
—
43 105
112
36
71
77
126 22
37
10
101
MX
XX
XX
XX
XX
Crest Erect
—
164
9 155
O
162
3
161
64 100
17
129
18
Bill Open
52
39
13
26
26
52 0
48
0
XX
XX
• XX
::x
Bill Closed
2b0
75
185
48
212
138 122
6
139
1 15
Wings Flicked
114
—
74
50
104 10
54
â–  0
oO
XX
XX
XX
Wings Down
198
0
198
86 112
0
139
59
Tail Flicked
74
—
72 2
53
1
20
XX
XX
Tail Doun
—
238
118 120
1
138
99
Facing Rival
190
54
27
109
XX
Facing Away
122
0
112
10
Reaction
Attack
Retreat

Table 9
Simultaneous Occurrence of Behavioral Components Given by Territorial Male
Gray-Breasted Martins to Intruders. x (2x2) levels of significance
NS = p>0.05, xx = p<0.05. (Adapted from Stokes, 1962)
Body Body
Body
Body
Feathers Feathers
Crest
Crest
Bill Bill
Wings
Wings
Tail
Tail
Facing
Facing
Reac cion
Horizontal
Upright
Sléeked Erect
Sleeked
Erect
Open Closed
Flicked
Downs
Flicked Down
Rival
Away
Attack
Retreat
Stay
Body Horizontal
94
91 3
92
2
46 48
33
61
47
47
93
i
45
7
42
XX
XX
NS
NS
XX
XX
Body Upright
—
145
15 130
30
115
2 143
53
92
32
113
25
120
1
30
64
Bodv leather
106
88
18
44 62
81
25
75
31
105
1
44
1'
o 1
Sleeked
XX
XX
XX
XX
::x
XX
Body feathers
133
34
99
4 129
5
128
4
129
13
Í20
2
86
45
Erect
Crest Sleeked
122
—
48 74
42
80
51
71
107
15
4 2
3
/ 7
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
Crest 6rect
—
117
0 117
44
73
28
89
11
102
4
84
29
Bill Open
48
43
5
43
5
48
c
43
0
5
XX
XX
XX
XX
Bill Closed
— 191
43
148
36
155
70
121
3
87
101
Wings Flicked
86
—
76
10
80
0
39
5 •
M 7
XX
XX
x>:
Wings Down
—
153
3
150
38
115
7
82
64
Tail Flicked
79
—
78
1
38
9
32
Tail Down
—
loO
40
i:o
8
78
7 4
Facing Rival
118
—
46
10
o7
XX
Facing Away
—
121
0
77
*4
React ion
46
Attack
Retreat
Stay
—
87
—
106
00
4^

85
n=201). Only wing and tail flicking combined with body
position in the PM and wing flicking combined with crest
position in the GM did not show any significant degree of
correlation between these components.
The next step in the analysis was to determine if one
could predict what a bird would do from its posture.
Following the same approach used for analyzing the displays,
I recorded the frequency of the seven different behavioral
components and the degree of correlation between these
components and the subsequent reactions of the birds.
Tables 10 and 11 show that a bird's behavioral posture
indicated different probabilities that it would stay,
attack, or retreat. Only five components permitted pre¬
diction of subsequent action by a male PM (Table 10). Bill
open (as in Lunge) had a 92% (n=52 field records) chance of
being followed by attack. Tail flick, which was associated
with moving forward, had a 72% chance of being followed by
attack (n=74 field records). Body feathers erect, crest
erect, and facing away indicated high probabilities of
retreating. In the GM (Table 11) only bill open permitted
prediction of the outcome of an encounter with any degree of
accuracy. For all other components of behavior the
probability of subsequent attack, retreat, or stay was
usually 60% or less in both species (Tables 10 and 11).
Another approach was to compare the probability of
action when a given component was present or absent. Thus
when a PM behavior changed from body feathers sleeked to

Table 10. Purple Martins: Behavioral Components of Displays Versus Subsequent Behavior
of Signaler and of Receiver.
Subsequent Behavior Subsequent Behavior
of Signaler of Receiver
Behavioral Component
Attack
Retreat
Stay
N
P
Attack
Retreat
Stay
N
P
Body Horizontal
50
12
38
107
* *
3
25
72
53
* *
Body Upright
0
62
38
205
54
7
39
202
Body Feathers Sleeked
34
0
66
158
★ *
1
26
73
72
* *
Body Feathers Erect
0
90
10
154
49
1
50
179
Crest Sleeked
25
7
68
148
* *
1
23
76
71
k :k
Crest Erect
10
79
11
164
47
0
53
179
Bill Open
92
0
8
52
* *
0
80
20
51
k k
Bill Closed
2
54
44
260
54
5
41
200
Wings Flicked
47
0
53
114
* *
14
35
51
43
k k
Wings Down
0
70
30
198
35
7
58
210
Tail Flicked
72
1
27
74
* *
14
30
56
43
k k
Tail Down
1
58
41
238
33
3
64
209
Continued
00
Ch

Table 10. Continued.
Behavioral Component
Attack
Subsequent Behavior
of Signaler
P
Attack
Subsequent Behavior
of Receiver
P
Retreat Stay
N
Retreat Stay
N
Facing Rival
28
15 57
190
3
25 72
53
* *
* *
Facing Away
0
92 8
122
52
0 48
201
aPercent of Total occurrences.
** X2 = p < .05

Table 11. Gray-Breasted Martins: Behavioral Components of Displays Versus Subsequent
Behavior of Signaler and of Receiver.
Subsequent Behavior Subsequent Behavior
of Signaler of Receiver
Behavioral Component
Attack
Retreat
Stay
N
P
Attack
Retreat
Stay
N
P
Body Horizontal
48
7
45
94
ic *
0
46
54
37
* *
Body Upright
1
55
44
145
58
4
38
76
Body Feathers Sleeked
41
1
58
106
★ ★
0
33
67
45
* *
Body Feathers Erect
1
65
34
133
55
0
45
75
Crest Sleeked
34
3
63
122
★ *
0
46
54
35
* *
Crest Erect
3
72
25
117
50
1
49
76
Bill Open
90
0
10
48
* *
0
44
56
36
★ *
Bill Closed
2
45
53
191
57
13
30
76
Wings Flicked
45
6
49
86
★ *
3
32
65
37
★ *
Wings Down
4
54
42
153
54
0
46
76
Tail Flicked
48
11
41
79
* *
2
17
81
36
★ *
Tail Down
5
49
46
160
60
3
37
75
Continued
CO
oo

Table 11. Continued.
Behavioral Component
Attack
Subsequent Behavior
of Signaler
P
Attack
Subsequent Behavior
of Receiver3
P
Retreat Stay
N
Retreat Stay
N
Facing Rival
39
9 52
118
• 0
46 54
37
★ ★
★ *
Facing Away
0
64 36
121
62
0 38
76
Percent of Total occurrences.
** X = p < .05

90
body feathers erect, the probability of its retreating
increased from zero to 90% (n=158 field records). Simi¬
larly, its probability of attacking dropped from 34% to 0%
(n=158 field records) and the probability of staying dropped
from 66% to 10% (n=158 field records). Similar changes
resulted in the GM when a bird changed from having its body
feathers in sleeked to erected position.
Signal Value of Postural Components
I studied the function of postural components in
martins by measuring the effects of a given component of a
signaler upon the behavior of a recipient (Tables 10 and
11). The assumption of aggressive postural components by a
signaler had considerable effect upon the behavior of a
recipient. Body and crest feathers sleeked, body horizon¬
tal, and facing the opponent all reduced attack from the
recipient at a territorial boundary. The recipient stayed
more and retreated less often. The open bill of a signaler
reduced both attack and stay by the recipient, with a
corresponding increase in retreating by the recipient. In
the PM, open bill had the greatest probability of eliciting
retreat in the recipient (80%, n=51 field records), and the
lowest probability of being followed by retreat (0%, n=51
field records) from the signaler (Table 10). A signaler
with bill closed, body and crest feathers erect, body
upright, and facing away all increased the probability of
attack from a recipient. In the GM, facing away had the

91
highest probability of eliciting attack in the recipient
(62%, n=76 field records), and the lowest probability of
eliciting retreat (0%, n=76 field records) in the recipient
(Table 11).
As shown in Tables 10 and 11, different postures could
be used only as general indicators of the tendency to act,
but subsequent postural components could allow a recipient
to predict whether a signaler would attack, stay, or
retreat. These components may be divided into three groups:
(1) indicators of probable attack—bill open, body horizon¬
tal, wings flicked, tail flicked, (2) indicators of probable
retreat—facing away, body upright, body feathers erect,
crest erect, wings down, tail down, and (3) indicators of
probable staying—facing rival, bill closed, crest sleeked,
body feathers sleeked, wings flicked, tail flicked.
Presentation of the Bill
In the threat displays of martins, the bill was the
most frequently used weapon of attack, and selection has
seemingly acted to either maximize or minimize the presen¬
tation of the bill depending on the situation. There was
considerable flexibility in the use of the bill, which could
be pointed or moved forward, opened wide, and turned side¬
ways. In both Head Forward displays, which indicated high
probability of attack, the bill was presented forward as a
weapon. In the High-Up displays, which indicated low
probability of attack, the bill was raised or lowered out of

92
direct contact-line with an opponent. These two groups of
displays were clearly different enough to avoid ambiguity of
meaning.
There also was a gradient in the degree of bill presen¬
tation from the least to the most aggressive displays
(Figure 8). During a Lunge the bill could be closed or
opened and could be used to jab or grip the opponent. In
the high-intensity Head Forward Thrust the closed bill was
pointed slightly downward or obliquely toward the rival.
During Bill-snapping the bill was pointed horizontally or
downward and snapped. The bill position during the Gape was
very similar to that of high-intensity Head Forward Thrust
except that the bill was held wide open. During Withdraw
High-Up the head was turned to one side of the body so that
the bill pointed away from the opponent.
Categories of Behavior
Variation in form of display behavior raises several
difficult questions for observers who wish to both describe
display behavior and determine the number of display units
in a species' repertoire. Categorization according to
consequences is a possible alternative to that according to
form (Hinde, 1970).
If the behavior of a signaler or recipient following a
display was compared with his behavior following all other
displays, differences emerged in defining behavioral cate¬
gories (Figures 9-12). The PM data from Figure 9 showed

93
Figure 8
Lunge
high intensity
Head Forward Thrust
Gaping
Increasing presentation of
bill and probability of attack
Bill-snapping
low intensity
Head Forward Thrust
Alert High-Up
Withdraw High-Up
Gradation of threat display.

SuO»rqu«nt bchovior of Signaler
(Purple Martin)
A,l<*ch R«tr«ol Slay
94
I 00r
I OOr
075-
0 50-
Figure 9. Pair-wise comparisons of probabilities that a
Purple Martin signaler will attack, retreat, or
stay for all possible combintations of displays.
Dark blocks indicate a significant difference at
the 0.05 level, test for significance between
two proportions. LIHF= low-intensity Head
Forward Thrust, HIHF= high-intensity Head Forward
Thrust, G= Gaping, BS= Bill-snapping, L= Lunge,
WHU= Withdraw High-Up, AHU= Alert High-Up.

95
I oo
075
050
0 25-
¡f-Jui bi.iiÍl.1. JllJul l .
00
I 00r
0 75-
í O 50-
0 25-
II 1° I a XJ X X XX IB X-1 IX ix °ffl o-l O j 03 2-1 tfl™ ™ Dj
-I 1-L
1^- I 1-IJ^
Displays
Figure 10. Pair-wise comparisons of probabilities that a
Purple Martin receiver will attack, retreat, or
stay for all possible combintations of displays.
Dark blocks indicate a significant difference at
the 0.05 level, test for significance between
two proportions. LIHF= low-intensity Head
Forward Thrust, HIHF= high-intensity Head
Forward Thrust, G= Gaping, BS= Bill-snapping,
L= Lunge, WHU= Withdraw High-Up, AHU= Alert
High-Up.

Subsequent behowior of Signoler
(Gr oy-bf eos t * 96
0 75
o 050
0 25-
00-
Disployt
Figure 11. Pair-wise comparisons of probabilities that a
Gray-breasted Martin signaler will attack,
retreat, or stay for all possible combintations
of displays. Dark blocks indicate a significant
difference at the 0.05 level, test for signifi¬
cance between two proportions. LIHF= low-
intensity Head Forward Thrust, HIHF=
high-intensity Head Forward Thrust, G= Gaping,
BS= Bill-snapping, L= Lunge, WHU= Withdraw
High-Up, AHU= Alert High-Up.

Subsequent behavior of Recipient
(Groy-breasted Martin)
97
Figure 12. Pair-wise comparisons of probabilities that a
Gray-breasted Martin receiver will attack,
retreat, or stay for all possible combintations
of displays. Dark blocks indicate a significant
difference at the 0.05 level, test for signifi¬
cance between two proportions. LIHF= low-
intensity Head Forward Thrust, HIHF=
high-intensity Head Forward Thrust, G= Gaping,
BS= Bill-snapping, L= Lunge, WHU= Withdraw
High-Up, AHU= Alert High-Up.

98
that while pair-wise comparisons of displays that predicted
attack to the human observer (such as between low-intensity
Head Forward Thrust/Gaping, high-intensity Head Forward
Thrust/Lunge, and Gaping/Bill-snapping) were distinguishable
as separate displays in predicting signaler behavior, a
comparison of several other display pairs that predicted
attack (such as between low-intensity Head Forward Thrust/
Bill-snapping and high-intensity Head Forward Thrust/Gaping)
were distinguishable as separate displays in predicting
signaler behavior.
Examination of the PM data (Figure 9) showed that 50
out of 63 possible pair-wise comparisons allowed for differ¬
entiation of displays in predicting signaler behavior. I
was unable to distinguish between 23 out of 63 of these
pair-wise comparisons in predicting recipient behavior
(Figure 10).
Data from the GM illustrated similar results when
individual displays were compared (Figures 11 and 12). This
was particularly true, for example, when comparing Lunge
with all other displays. Lunge was frequently followed by
attack. When comparing the Lunge with Alert High-Up or
Withdraw High-Up, two displays with high probabilities of
being followed by retreat or staying put, I could predict
the subsequent activity of the signaler. However, when I
compared Lunge with low- and high-intensity Head Forward
Thrust, two displays with high probabilities of being

99
followed by attack, I could not accurately predict the
subsequent action of the signaler.
When comparing displays that predicted stay or retreat,
such as between Withdraw High-Up/Alert High-Up analysis
revealed that recipients were unable to differentiate
between these two displays. Recipients probably recognized
that the signaler did not constitute a threat and the
recipients' frequency of "staying put" increased.
Conversely, in situations in which displays could have
different effects, selection would favor the development of
unmistakably different signals (Darwin, 1872). For
instance, the High-Up displays of appeasing martins in which
an individual withdrew its bill from a position of attack,
contrasted with the aggressive Head Forward Thrust displays
in which the bill was pointed forward as a weapon.
Because recipients of displays often were unable to
differentiate between displays, information of some other
kind also must determine the recipient's response. There is
increasing evidence that the "meaning" of a given display
depends both on the situation and on the context of other
displays in which it is given (Dawkins & Krebs, 1984; Stout,
1975; Wiley, 1983). In particular, Smith (1968, 1977) has
argued the need to distinguish between messages, meanings,
and functions, and his analyses of communication in tryannid
flycatchers have drawn attention to the importance of the
context in which signals are delivered and the likelihood
that displays have different meanings in different

100
situations. Increasing attention now is being paid to
possible multiple functions of displays (Beer, 1975; Krebs
and Davies, 1981; Richards, 1981) and to ways in which
information is given to conspecifics other than by displays
(Baker & Parker, 1979). When a display is performed, a
recipient's response may depend largely on where he is (such
as in his territory or not), on whether he sees the signaler
approaching, retreating, or remaining still, on what he has
seen the signaler do in past events, and even on real
differences in participants' size, strength, or age which
could affect the outcome of an encounter (Maynard Smith,
1982; Rubenstein, 1982).
Discussion
The publication of a series of papers on strategies of
communication written by Maynard Smith and Parker (Maynard
Smith, 1974, 1976; Maynard Smith & Parker, 1976; Parker,
1974) comprised a landmark in the study of animal
communication. Their game-theory approach to agonistic
behavior in animals formulated the basic prediction that
when fighting entails a significant risk of physical injury,
individuals will be expected use less dangerous, more
conventional strategies for settling disputes over the
possession of resources. These conventions usually take the
form of ritualized displays or trials of strength
(Parker, 1974).

101
Maynard Smith (1974) considered an agonistic contest
that was settled by displays alone in his war of attrition
model. He concluded that the most advantageous strategy is
one in which both contestants display with constant
intensity, until the individual that is less prepared to
escalate simply gives up. Maynard Smith and Parker (1976)
argued that selection should oppose any tendency for
aggressive displays to reveal intention: such displays
should evolve toward typical intensity. The rationale
behind these arguments was that since attack was likely to
involve a higher cost than display alone to both
contestants, the display should conceal information about
the probability of escalation and merely signal that an
attack could occur at any time. Caryl's (1979) re-analysis
of threat display data in birds showed quite clearly that
components preceding attack predicted attack much less
reliably than other components predicted other behaviors
(e.g., escape).
The immediate conclusion from this is that animals
should ignore information signaled by their opponents.
However, this is not in accordance with ethological obser¬
vations. A large number of studies have shown that infor¬
mation is transmitted; the response of the receiver varies
with the behavior of the sender (e.g., Andersson, 1976;
Dingle, 1969; Dunham, 1966; Stokes, 1962b). Moreover,
motivational analyses of displays (Blurton-Jones, 1968;
Tinbergen, 1952) clearly showed that the probability of an

102
animal attacking or fleeing varied with the preceding
behavior shown by the animal. Consequently, the behavior of
the opponent must contain relevant information about cost
and benefit associated with available options. Furthermore,
the rationale for why many animals have several different
threat displays and other variations in aggressive behavior
demands a functional explanation (Andersson, 1980; Caryl,
1979; Dawkins & Krebs, 1978; Maynard Smith, 1979; Wiley,
1983). If the variation in signaling does not give any
benefit to the sender, one behavioral option would suffice.
In nature, however, the majority of animal contests are
asymmetric. Opponents rarely are matched equally, either in
how greatly they value the contested resource or in terms of
fighting ability (resource holding potential, RHP) (Parker,
1974, Maynard Smith & Parker, 1976). Prior ownership of a
resource by one individual also may contribute an additional
asymmetry to contests (Maynard Smith, 1976). The existence
of contest asymmetries will tend to produce selection in
favor of individuals who are capable of estimating their own
probability of winning contests by first assessing the
opponent's RHP relative to their own. When fighting is
potentially dangerous, opponents would be expected to use
the quality and vigor of each other's displays as the basis
for making this assessment (Parker, 1974). Therefore,
threat displays need to be viewed not only as conventional
alternatives to physical combat, but also as exercises in
reciprocal intimidation (Zahavi, 1979).

103
Several theories have been proposed to account for
display behavior. The information hypothesis predicts that
displays will communicate the intended degree to which each
individual will escalate to warlike behavior or persist in a
contest. The manipulation hypothesis predicts that displays
may be a bluffing phase in which individuals try to persuade
or manipulate opponents. The honesty hypothesis predicts
that displays should provide a uniform background against
which subtle differences between individuals can be empha¬
sized .
All three hypotheses could be correct for different
stages in ritualization. Initially, signals may have become
ritualized because of the benefit of reduced ambiguity.
Next, selection on signalers to manipulate receivers may
have led to greater exaggeration and stereotypy. Finally,
sales resistance and discrimination by receivers may have
led to displays, particularly in those used in assessment,
being performed in a way that allows assessment of differ¬
ences between signalers. Signals which do not allow reli¬
able assessment may gradually lose their effectiveness and
be replaced by new ones.
The three hypotheses can, to some extent, be evaluated
by indirect tests. Caryl (1979, 1981) reanalyzed data on
avian threat displays from Stokes's (1962a) work on Blue
Tits (Parus caeruleus) at a winter feeding station, Dunham's
(1966) paper on captive Rose-breasted Grosbeaks (Pheucticus
ludovicianus), and Andersson's (1976) work on Great Skuas

104
(Stercorarius skua) at a breeding colony. Caryl's reanaly¬
sis showed that while some displays predicted retreat fairly
accurately, those displays that best predicted attack were
followed by attack on only 54% or less of occasions. For
example, in reviewing Stokes's data (1962a), five display
components combined in eight ways were followed by attack on
only 48%, 44%, and 43% of occasions, whereas two displays
predicted retreat on 94% and 89% of occasions. In
Andersson's (1976) data on the Great Skua, two postures
(Neck Normal and Neck Short) predicted retreat with a high
probability, whereas attack could not be predicted with more
than a 42% chance of success from a knowledge of the dis¬
plays. A similar difference was evident in the Grosbeak
(Dunham, 1966): attack could be predicted with a 54% chance
of success at best.
My martin data show that the best predictors of attack
(open bill, tail flicked, and body horizontal) were followed
by attack in PMs 92%, 72%, and 50% of occasions, and in GMs
90%, 48%, and 48% of occasions. Although my values were
higher than those in the three studies cited above, the
higher probability of attack may be due in part to
conditions of the martin nest site arrangement and the
resultant forced proximity. These data would be consistent
with the manipulation hypothesis, which predicts that
signalers should give away little information about their
motivational state. The information hypothesis, which
predicts that threat signals should communicate the future

105
behavior of the signaler with maximum clarity, would be less
likely.
Hinde (1981) suggests, however, that Caryl's (1979)
analysis may be too simple. He points out that some of the
displays considered by Caryl are good predictors of "attack
or stay put" or "flee or stay put." This might indicate
that the signaler signals a conditional strategy and that
its future behavior depends on the recipient's response.
This interpretation requires an advantage for signalers to
communicate intention to retreat. Otherwise, it would pay
to signal high probability of attack all the time in the
hope of deterring the rival. Signals of high attack probab¬
ility might scare an opponent away, but they could also
result in the opponent becoming more aggressive. Given this
uncertainty, the signaler should be prepared to back up its
threat with action or face the cost of being attacked.
A feature common to Stokes (1962a), Dunham (1966), and
Andersson (1976) was that agonistic displays predicted a
greater than 50% chance that signalers would stay put and
neither attack opponents nor retreat from them. Agonistic
displays were followed by the bird staying where it was in
55% of occasions in Stokes's study, 62% in Dunham's study,
and 65% in Andersson's study, as compared to 50% in the PM
and 59% in the GM of my study. This suggests that agonistic
displays carry an alternative message of "I shall attack or
stay," or "I shall retreat or stay," rather than conveying
precise information about attack, retreat, or stay. This

106
interactional approach depends in part on the behavior of
the recipient. My results are interesting, in this context,
as they indicate that attacks are not always inhibited by
the opponent's moving or turning away.
Examination of the PM data shows that Withdraw High-Up
predicted "retreat or stay" in 100% of occasions, and Alert
High-Up in 88% (Table 6). The remainder of the displays
predicted "attack or stay" in 86% of low-intensity Head
Forward Thrust, 96% of high-intensity Head Forward Thrust,
92% of Gaping, 95% of Bill-snapping, and 100% of Lunge.
Similarly, out of the GM data high-intensity Head Forward
Thrust, Bill-snapping, and Lunge predicted "attack or stay"
in 100% of occasions (Table 7). Low-intensity Head Forward
Thrust and Bill-snapping predicted "attack or stay" at 98%
and 99% of occasions respectively. Alert High-Up and
Withdraw High-Up predicted "retreat or stay" at 92% and 100%
of occasions. Furthermore, either attack or retreat was at
least twice as likely as the other except in Gaping, where
both were unlikely (PM: 52% and 40%; GM: 42% and 56%).
A survey of the postures discussed by Andersson (1976)
Dunham (1966), and Stokes (1962a, 1962b), predicted "attack
or stay" in 79% to 100% of occasions and "retreat or stay"
in 75% to 100% of occasions. This suggests that displays
are signals in broad terms: "I will attack or stay but will
probably not retreat," or "I want to stay, but if you do I
am more likely to attack than stay." The implication is
that birds should consider categories of behavior. With

107
this approach, the bird signals a conditional strategy,
indicating that its behavior depends on the recipient's
response. One suggested advantage is that the signaling of
probability of attack is more likely to evoke vicious
retaliation, so it is only worth taking this risk when the
benefit of staying is high.
In martins, displays used for bluff, persuasion,
manipulation, conveying intention or motivational state, or
as tactics to create confusion may, in fact, vary with the
specific role of the contestant. The high potential for
injury in martin disputes may favor accurate information
transfer and the consequent withdrawal of the "less moti¬
vated" bird. Parker and Rubenstein (1981) regarded threat
displays as adaptations for obtaining information about the
opponent's Resource Holding Potential. They then assumed
that when asymmetries between opponents were weak, rivals
might be obliged to escalate gradually through a series of
increasingly costly rounds in order to obtain the necessary
information to settle a dispute. Graded systems have been
described involving vocalizations, postures, and movements,
in which a resource holder escalates from one behavior to
the next if the intruder does not withdraw in the sequence.
If the intruder persists, the sequence culminates in attack.
These systems are known to occur in Red-winged Blackbirds
(Agelaius phoeniceus), Smith, 1976), White-eyed Vireos,
(Víreo griseus, Bradley, 1980), and Red deer (Cervus
elaphus, Clutton-Brock & Albon, 1979), to name but a few.

108
Theories involving gradual escalation (Dawkins & Krebs,
1978; Parker & Rubenstein, 1981) suggest that, in any given
contest, individual signaling components will become more
elaborate or costly as the display progresses towards an
eventual conclusion. This implies that different signals
can be assigned threat values proportional to their elabo¬
ration and intensity or information content (Parker &
Rubenstein, 1981).
I found evidence supporting this prediction in the
displays of Progne. All five threat displays were used in
male-male encounters. As an encounter began and the birds
moved closer toward each other, they performed progressively
more aggressive display types. In the exchange of displays
the opponent performed a similar display or the next more
aggressive type. A gradation existed from the low-intensity
Head Forward Thrust to Bill-snapping to Gaping to high-
intensity Head Forward Thrust to Lunge. Each successive
display involved additional signal components. Lunge had
more aggressive components than Gape, which had more than
low-intensity Head Forward Thrust. Lunge also contained the
most aggressive component, moving forward. The bill was
advanced toward the intruder while the bird moved forward.
A system of communication which contains reliable
gradation in signal intensity also may benefit the signaler
by ensuring that opponents take notice when a strong signal
is delivered. Van Rhijn (1980) speculated that agonistic
information should be revealed when contestants recognized

109
each other as individuals. He also claimed that "honest
information" was desirable when there was a clear asymmetry
between the abilities of two contestants, when the asymmetry
is known to them, and when liars can be detected. Animals
would then be expected to signal their fighting ability by
displays, but they would not be expected to signal their
intentions. Given this use of communication, it is inappro¬
priate to attach an altruistic label to it. Communication
is not cooperative in nature because interactions usually
involve inequalities in both costs and payoffs. Instead,
communication must be selfish, persuading other individuals
to act to the benefit of the signaler regardless of the
consequences to themselves.

VOCAL COMMUNICATION
Description of Vocal Displays
Field studies often reveal the contexts in which
vocalizations occur and thereby clarify the function of
different vocalizations. The analysis of martin vocal
displays was based on detailed examination of the situations
in which they were used, and the attendant behavior of the
signaler and receiver. Most vocal displays were used in a
variety of situations, but each was more common in some
specific circumstances than in others. Conversely, many
different vocal displays could be used in the same general
kind of situation. For example, many calls were used in a
dispute, but different calls were uttered by a bird watching
a fight, a bird making an attack, or a bird retreating from
an attack. The use of a vocal display also was influenced
by the past experience of the signaler, with whom he had
interacted, and the location of the interaction (e.g.,
inside versus outside the breeding territory).
In this analysis, the meaning of a vocalization was
interpreted by studying the actions of the receiver. In the
following discussion, however, the meaning of a vocalization
will sometimes be phrased in the first person, as if the
110

Ill
mood or intention of the signaler or receiver can be para¬
phrased in English. The paraphrased meanings are not
intended to imply that martins perform such reasoning—just
that they act as if they do so, or perform some functional
equivalent (pers. comm. Jane Brockmann, 1984).
The vocal displays of each species were treated sepa¬
rately. Each of the vocalizations was described in terms of
its acoustic properties and the social contexts in which it
was given. My description of the vocabulary of the PM
provided a basis for comparison of the vocalizations of the
GM and CM. Brown (1984) described PM vocalizations from
Texas and Arizona. Apparently he and I each found vocali¬
zations that the other did not. Vocalizations of the GM and
CM have not been previously described in the literature.
Purple Martin
Cher call. The Cher call (Figure 13A) was delivered
either singly or in groups of two of three syllables
(x=2.2 ± 0.61, n=159 different records) irregularly spaced
over a period of 0.08 to 12.5 sec. The duration of indi¬
vidual syllables averaged 0.12 ± .003 sec. Though the
frequency range was between 0.9 ± 0.02 kHz and
4.7 ± 0.21 kHz, traces of harmonics to about 8 kHz were
noted.
This call was the most uttered vocalization in the PM
vocal repertoire, and calls from one bird would frequently

112
Figure 13. Sonograms of Purple Martin vocalizations:
A. series of Cher calls from one individual;
B. one Zweet call; C. series of Sweet calls from
one individual; D. series of Sweet calls from
one individual when a cat was observed; E. Zweet
and Cher calls from one oneividual; F. Hee-hee
calls from two individuals.

113
elicit calling in another. The Cher call was given by both
sexes with equal frequency (53% males and 47% females,
n=246) and was heard throughout the breeding season. The
most common response to this call involved positional
changes of multiroom house members.
One of the most conspicuous features of the usage of
the Cher call was that the signaler was nearly always
perched and momentarily inactive. Males would wing flick or
pivot on their perch but, with the exception of the Alert
High-Up display, no other visible display coincided with
Cher calling. The calls were used in a wide variety of
situations and seemed to indicate a moderate state of
arousal. The Cher was also heard from birds that had just
alighted from a flight (65% of observations, n=418).
The call functioned to keep pair or house members
apprised of each other's position. Evidence for an adver¬
tising function was given by the fact that (1) PM gave this
call in the absence of any obvious receiver or external
stimuli, (2) pairs gave Chers when out of sight of each
other as they foraged, (3) young responded with begging
calls, when an adult arrived at the nest hole and gave this
call, and (4) females, during incubation, often responded
with Chortle songs when males gave Cher calls outside the
nest hole. The analogous call in other bird species is
frequently referred to as a "contact note" (Smith, 1977).
During flight, PM gave frequent Cher and Zweet calls.
However, they changed to giving Cher calls as they

114
approached a resource for which there might be competition,
such as a perch on a multiroom house or a telephone wire. I
therefore collected data on vocalizations given by PM as
they arrived (±1 sec) at perching sites, excluding cases in
which an arriving bird immediately became involved in an
agonistic encounter.
First, I examined data on calls uttered upon arrival
when other birds were already present. The birds gave Cher
upon arrival in 53% of cases (n=288). They rarely gave
Zweet calls (5% of cases), and in many cases gave no calls
whatsoever (42% silent arrivals). I gathered data for
martins arriving at the house when no other birds were
present and obtained similar results: the birds gave Cher
in 47% of cases (n=179). Also, they gave Zweet in only
2% of cases and had silent arrivals in 51% of cases.
Conversely, martins departing from the house either gave
Zweet calls (83% of cases, n=389), or gave no calls at all
(17% silent departures). In the context of flocking, this
call seemed to attract birds to each other. It functioned
similarly in paired birds during the breeding season.
Cher calls were also given several seconds after
supplanting a conspecific or a bird of another species
(68 observations, n=427). Moreover, the call was uttered
upon the sudden appearance of another martin (83 observa¬
tions, n=308). It may be given with the Zweet call
(Figure 13E) when the latter was elicited by a Starling
(Sturnus vulgaris, 9 observations, n=31), House Sparrow

115
(Passer domesticus, 13 observations, n=16), or Blue Jay
(Cyanocitta cristata, 4 observations, n=12).
Zweet call. The Zweet call (Figure 13B-C) consisted of
a single syllable or of a series of syllables averaging
0.13 ± 0.02 sec (n=30) in duration. The mean duration
between syllables was variable (x=0.12 ± 0.005 sec). These
calls consisted of an average high frequency of
4.5 ± 0.19 kHz to an average low of 1.8 ± 0.15 kHz. The
Zweet call was the second most common vocalization. It was
uttered by individuals of both sexes.
Zweet calls were used in a wide variety of situations
that reflected a high degree of excitement. These included
guarding a nest site, sighting and mobbing predators, and
disputes between male PM. This call was most often used in
face-to-face, standoff encounters between males, and was
given from the low-intensity Head Forward Thrust position
most frequently. Moreover, the call was often used by male
PM onlookers to aggressive encounters. These individuals
would remain at a distance from the active disputants;
sometimes they would move away from them, or occasionally
they would move part way toward them and then withdraw
again.
The Zweet call was more effective in scattering house
2
members than any other PM vocalization (x =7.46, df=7;
p<0.05). It could also be considered an alarm call in the
context of accompanying mobbing behavior (n=113 observa¬
tions) . My observations at the Gainesville Country Club

116
multiroom house indicated that the call was chiefly associ¬
ated with the presence of predators. On 334 occasions, I
saw PM assume a Head Forward Thrust posture and give the
Zweet call when fox squirrels (Sciurus niger), cats, human
observers, and dogs were nearby. On 17 other occasions,
adult males used a longer version of the Zweet call
(Figure 13D) when a screech owl (Otus asio) approached the
multiroom house.
Hee-hee call. Given only by males, the Hee-hee call
(Figure 13F) was uttered at a rate of 1.7 ± 0.50 calls per
second (n=50). The mean duration of the call was
0.28 + 0.04 sec, with the intersyllable interval averaging
0.15 ± 0.006 sec. The Hee-hee call was complex in
structure. The notes of the call consisted of a multitude
of long up-and-down slurs. The call showed a gradual drop
in frequency from an average high of 5.2 ± 0.34 kHz to an
average low of 1.3 ± 0.16 kHz, with some harmonic overtones
reaching 7 kHz.
The Hee-hee call was the third most common vocaliza¬
tion. The call was given by a male in either a low-
intensity or high-intensity Head Forward Thrust, or in the
Alert High-Up posture while on his territory. The call
appeared to function as an assertion of dominance at a
breeding site and as a means of claiming ownership of a
territory. Actual or potential intruders (e.g., individuals
from neighboring territories) were attacked if they entered
or remained in the vicinity of the calling male. A perched

117
male would combine the Hee-hee call with Zweet calls at
times. If avoidance did not occur, high-intensity Head
Forward Thrust, Lunge, or fighting followed. This call was
also directed by a breeding male toward other female martins
if they came near the breeding cavity.
On 104 occasions, males gave Hee-hee calls while
attracting females with the Claim-Reclaiming display (John¬
ston & Hardy, 1962). The display was characterized by
stiffly arched wingbeats alternating with periods of gliding
on outstretched wings, and it occurred at heights of about
10 m to 40 m above the ground. The bird gave Hee-hee calls
while in flight. It would terminate the display by an
earthward swoop into the nest cavity. During 38 of these
observations, a female followed the male into his nest
cavity as he continued giving Hee-hee calls.
Chortle call. Given by both sexes, the Chortle call
(Figure 14A-B) was given at the rate of 3.6 ± 0.9 syllables
per second (n=45). The mean duration of individual
syllables was 0.18 ± 0.06 sec. Intervals between the end of
one syllable and the beginning of the next averaged
0.13 ± 0.02 sec. The frequency of this polysyllabic call
was between 3.3 ± 0.19 kHz and 0.95 ± 0.05 kHz.
Chortle calls were used in breeding-related situations
and in agonistic encounters between PMs. This call appeared
to indicate a higher lever of arousal than the single Cher
call.

118
Figure 14. Sonograms of Purple Martin vocalizations:
A. series of Chortle calls from a female;
B. series of Chortle calls from a male;
C. Chortle song; D. Zwrack calls given by
different individuals; E. Rattle call from one
individual; F. Choo calls from a female.

119
The majority of Chortle calls were given in association
with mating early in the breeding season (396 observations,
n=473). Males and females used the vocalization in their
calling when they began to bring nesting material to the
multiroom house. On 51 occasions during the nest building
period, the male entered the nesting compartment while the
female was inside. He remained there several seconds,
during which Chortle calling was heard. Copulations may
have occurred at this time, since I observed seven copula¬
tions on the ground with Chortle calls preceding the mating.
The male then left while the female remained inside the nest
hole and continued to give Chortle calls. A male often used
Chortle calls while sitting in front of a nest hole when a
female was inside.
The second most common use of Chortle calls was in
direct aggressive encounters between male martins (67 obser¬
vations, n=475). The call was given by retreating males in
the Withdraw High-Up or low-intensity Head Forward Thrust
posture, possible forestalling an aggressive response. No
cases were observed in which males attacked during or
following the use of this vocalization (n=475). The call
was also given by birds who, though defeated in an encoun¬
ter, remained in the multiroom house area rather than
leaving (2% of observations, n=475). These signalers always
showed the Withdraw High-Up position. If the signaler did
retreat, it only moved a few centimeters, never making an
outright departure from the area of the encounter.

120
In the more intense interactions (e.g., males calling
when a potential intruder was near the territory), many
Zweet and Chortle calls were strung together in an excited-
sounding twitter. In my observations of PMs that gave this
call in conjunction with visual displays, the number of
syllables in a call and the rate at which these calls were
delivered were positively related to intensity of the
signaler's displaying.
Zwrack call. The Zwrack call (Figure 14D) consisted of
a harsh blast of noise with a mean duration of 0.24 +
0.02 sec (n=24). The call extended over a wide frequency
range with the greatest amount of energy between
5.7 ± 0.58 kHz and 2.0 ± 0.15 kHz.
Zwrack calls indicated high intensity alarm because an
intruder had to be on the verge of entering a nest before
martins would attack and use this vocalization. The call
served both to attract other martins to a predator so that
group action could drive it away, and as a means of harass¬
ing or distracting the predator in a manner analogous to the
diving attacks commonly performed by mobbers (Curio, 1978).
Male PM mobbed cats, dogs, squirrels, human observers, and
other potential predators by repeatedly swooping toward them
from above, behind, or the side. Mobbing flights were
U-shaped arcs beginning about 5 m above the target. The PM
male emitted one Zwrack call each time it reached the nadir
of an arc just above its target; the call was not given
during other portions of the arc. Predators appeared to be

121
distracted by the call. They usually crouched as the PM
closed in, and they seldom remained in one place once
mobbing commenced.
The Zwrack call was also used with the high-intensity
Head-Forward Thrust and Lunge postures during agonistic
interactions with male conspecifics and other bird species
(n=143). The call was emitted as the territory holder and
intruder were either stationary or moving a short distance
on the multiroom house.
Zwrack calls were similar to the mobbing calls of other
bird species whose calls have a harsh quality characterized
by wide frequency-spectra, sharp onset and termination, and
rapid repetition (Marler, 1955a, 1969) . These acoustic
characteristics enhance the ability of potential mobbers to
locate the source of the sound (Konishi, 1973; Shatter,
1978) .
Chop call. The Choo call (Figure 14F) consisted of a
series of syllables repeated at varying intervals. The
individual syllables averaged 0.16 ± 0.007 sec (n=22) in
duration. The average between-note duration was from
0.08 to 1 or more sec. Its frequency range was
4.1 ± 0.47 kHz to 0.7 + 0.16 kHz. Choo calls were given by
females during the breeding season. My data concurred with
that of Brown (1984) : whenever young birds became
scattered, the Choo call reassembled the group. I recorded
females returning to the house leading young PM with Choo

122
calls on 22 occasions. The male was not observed using this
call in Brown's (1984) or my study.
Rattle call. The Rattle call (Figure 14E) was a short
regular burst of harsh notes. The number of notes in a
Rattle call varied from 6 to 13 (x=9.2 ± 0.43, n=22). Each
note averaged 0.02 ± 0.001 sec in duration. The internóte
length varied from 0.05 to 0.08 sec (n=40). The length of
the call varied from 0.9 to 1.6 sec (x=1.05 + 0.56 sec), and
most of the energy was in the range of 6 to 3.5 kHz.
The Rattle call was heard between mates when they were
stationary. It was given by birds of either sex when one
individual approached the other too closely. The signaler
then turned and Gaped while uttering the call. The most
common response involved a retreat of the approaching bird,
although some individuals would return the Gape and Rattle
call before retreating. Brown (1984) made no mention of
this call in his study in Texas or Arizona.
Primary Song. The primary song (Figure 15A) consisted
of a series of eight to 12 distinct syllables
(x=10.6 ± 0.56, n=109), followed by four to eight grating
notes at the end of the song (x=5.3 ± 0.07). Most syllables
swept downward in frequency with a concentration of energy
between 6.1 ± 0.23 and 0.2 ± 0.09 kHz. The highest-pitched
syllables started at about 6.5 kHz and some syllables fell
as low as 0.2 kHz. The song ranged in duration from 1.2 to
3.5 sec in different birds. The song was usually repeated
from two to four times (x=2.8 ± 0.93, n=289).

hHl
r
123
i
i . _L
TIM( IN SÍCOHDS
E
\ ^
ft
TIME IN SECONOS
TIMf IN SECONOS
Figure 15. Sonograms of Purple and Gray-breasted Martin
vocalizations: A. Purple Martin Primary song;
B. incomplete Purple Martin Primary song;
C. Gray-breasted Martin Cree calls; D. Gray¬
breasted Martin Zwat calls; E. Gray-breasted
Martin Cluck calls; F. Gray-breasted Martin
Krack calls.

124
An incomplete version of the primary song (defined as
songs of less than eight syllables) was most frequently
given by perched males during encounters with conspecifics
(x=3.07 + 0.34 syllables, n=231). Incomplete songs were a
regular feature of territorial encounters between males.
In 19 cases, the primary song of one individual record¬
ed on different dates could be matched syllable by syllable
throughout its entire length, indicating that there was
stereotypy in the form of the song (I found similar results
for five other PM males). However, other examples of the
primary song of the same male showed differences in the
introductory portion, including variation in the ordering of
the syllables, repetition of some syllables, or inclusion of
a second series of syllables from primary song.
During bouts of singing, PM sang at a rate of two to
four songs per min (Table 12). Several features of the
external situation influenced the song rate. When no
visible disturbances were evident, bouts of singing were at
a slow rate. Counter-singing with another male during
territorial encounters increased the song rate (Table 12).
The highest rate recorded, 10.54 songs per minute, occurred
in such a territorial encounter.
One variation of the incomplete primary song was a dawn
flight song heard early in the breeding season. A male
initially perched on a multiroom house and gave a series of
Cher calls. The rate of delivery of these calls accelerated

Table 12. Song Rates of Male Purple Martins During Different External Situations.
Situation
Mean Song Rate*
(songs/min)
Range
(songs/min)
No.
Observations
Singing with no
disturbance
2.8 ± 0.93
1.23-4.05
289
Singing during male
encounter
6.7 + 0.57
4.23-10.54
57
Singing during dawn
flight
3.2 ± 0.23
2.52-5.36
37
*Song rates differ significantly between situations (Student-Newman-Keuls multiple range
test. p < 0.05).
125

126
until the bird took flight and climbed to 10 to 25 m above
the house. The flight appeared labored, and the bird
sometimes circled as it sang. At the end of dawn singing
(x=3.2 ± 0.23 songs per min, n=37 separate mornings) the
bird would return to the multiroom house.
Chortle songs. This female song (Figure 14C) consisted
of a series of eight to 11 syllables given at an average
rate of 4.1 ± 0.32 syllables per sec (n=38). The individual
syllables averaged 1.2 ± 0.01 sec in duration, and the
intersyllable interval averaged 0.09 ± 0.09 sec in duration.
Chortle songs were given at frequencies between 5.5 ±
0.38 and 1.2 + 0.08 kHz.
The Chortle song was used almost exclusively during the
pre-incubation period. Because the female's Chortle song
attracted males, it may have encoded a message specifying
the female's readiness to associate with the male. All
records of Chortle songs were obtained from females moving
in close association with or responding to the actions of
mates. This vocalization is associated with decreasing the
distance between members of a pair and preparing the way for
copulation. I witnessed three copulations where the female
Chortle song preceded the mating.
Gray-Breasted Martin
Cheur call. The Cheur call (Figure 16B) was given
either singly or in groups of two or three syllables
(x=2.7 ± 0.08, n=62) spaced over a period of 0.13 to

127
TIME IN SECONDS
Figure 16. Sonograms of Gray-breasted and Caribbean Martin
vocailizations: A. series of Gray-breasted
Martin Zurr calls; B. series of Gray-breasted
Martin Cheur calls; C. Gray-breasted Martin
Primary song; D. Gray-breasted Martin Rattle
call; E. Caribbean Martin Peak calls;
F. Caribbean Martin Zwoot call; G. Caribbean
Martin Croot call.

128
3.7 sec. The duration of individual syllables averaged
0.13 ± 0.02 sec. The intersyllable duration was 0.51 ±
0.06 sec. The frequency range was between 7.1 ± 0.26 kHz
and 0.9 ± 0.23 kHz. This call was similar in contextual
usuage to the PM Cher call.
The Cheur call was used in a wide variety of situations
and seemed to indicate a moderate state of arousal. No
ritualized visible display other than Alert High-Up was
associated with this vocalization. The Cheur call was used
while the bird was in flight as a single call (121 observa¬
tions, n=423), or in a series (87 observations, n=423). Of
the remainder, 101 were given as the bird alighted and
114 while a bird was on its perch (n=423).
This call was given by both sexes throughout the
breeding season. The Cheur call was a locating vocalization
given by members of flock or pair when separated. In the
latter case, it was given by paired birds that had moved
apart while foraging, or by a male calling a female away
from the nest cavity.
On 165 occasions, the Cheur call was given by the male
of a pair arriving at the nest site while the female was
incubating or brooding. The female responded by coming to
the entrance of the hole (99 observations, n=165), and on
37 occasions by flying out. A female leaving the nest after
hearing the Cheur call often gave the Zwat call (37% of
observations, n=165). On 27 occasions the female did not
respond and the male entered the nest, but not without

129
repeated Zwat calls from the male. The male flew off when
the female did not emerge on 3 of 165 occasions.
Cree call. The Cree call (Figure 15C) was a staccato
series of single syllables averaging 1.1 ± 0.07 sec in
duration (n=38). The intersyllable duration was
2.6 ± 0.02 sec. These calls down-slurred from an average
high frequency of 4.9 ± 0.18 kHz to an average low frequency
of 2.1 ± 0.02 kHz.
The Cree call was given by birds showing signs of
retreat behavior. GM would wing and tail flick, pivot on
the perch, and then show Withdraw High-Up. The call and
accompanying display appeared to convey a passive or non-
aggressive state to the receiver. Features of the situation
that appeared to cause or contribute to the retreat
included (1) a current or recent dispute in the area,
(2) the fact that the signaler was the intruder, (3) the
presence of a higher ranking male, and (4) the presence of
other bird species. Cree calls were also given on or just
after alighting. Moreover, they were given while the
signaler was on its perch and, rarely, in flight.
The Cree call was associated with copulation on seven
occasions. In the copulatory sequence, the female first
uttered the Cree call. The male then approached within a
few centimeters, giving a Cheur call, while the female
continued to give the Cree call and then wing quiver. The
male then mounted. It was unlikely that the Cree call's
message was only a sexual one, as the call occurred in other

130
contexts. However, it seemed to be an important way for
females to attract male and for signaling readiness to
engage in sexual activity.
Zwat call. The Zwat call (Figure 15D) was delivered
either singly or in groups of two or three syllables
(x=2.3 ± 0.56, n=26) irregularly spaced over a period of
0.20 to 4.30 sec. The duration of individual syllables
averaged 0.22 ± 0.06 sec. The frequency range was between
7.4 ± 0.46 kHz and 0.8 ± 0.09 kHz.
Zwat calls were used in disputes with other GM and
other bird species. They were used by a male hearing a
rival in the distance, or while facing-off against a rival
male. The call accompanied both low and high-intensity Head
Forward Thrust positions and the Lunge display. The call
was often used by combatants at the Pumphouse during long,
chasing melees involving several birds, or in a tumbling
combat on top of oil pipes. Furthermore, Zwat calls were
used by onlookers to a fight. Birds directed the calls
toward the participants involved in the encounter and would
immediately stop calling upon cessation of the dispute.
Zurr call. The Zurr call (Figure 16A) consisted of a
series of syllables repeated at varying intervals. The
individual syllables averaged 0.16 ± 0.03 sec (n= 46) in
duration. The average, between-note duration was from
0.09 to 1.3 seconds. Its frequency range was 3.8 + 0.17 kHz
to 0.9 ± 0.12 kHz. Both sexes gave the call throughout the
study period.

131
Any alarming event, such as the presence of a cat at
the Pumphouse, elicited this call. When given, all birds
left their nests, flew around the area, and continued to
give the Zurr call until the disturbance ceased. When young
were in the nest a definite change of the vocalization was
noted. The distance of the predator from the nest site
determined its characteristics. A Zurr call was given when
the birds first became aware of the approach of a cat or
human observer, usually at about 15 m. As the potential
predator approached to within 7 m, the Zurr call shifted to
the Zwat or Krack call.
Fighting males gave Zurr calls, while using the Head
Forward Thrust displays and Lunge. When fighting, one bird
would grip the other and hold him down on the pipes, while
both birds gave Zurr calls. On 16 occasions, two birds fell
in the water locked together, remained submerged for several
seconds, and then flew out in a prolonged chase during which
more Zurr calls were given. Moreover, Zurrs were character¬
istic of aerial fights. Two opposing males would rise in
the air: they would claw at each other or pull at each
other's breast with their beaks while giving Zurr calls.
Krack call. The Krack call (Figure 15F) was a mono¬
syllabic sudden burst of low-pitched harsh sound. Graphi¬
cally, it was a non-structured tower of white noise with a
baseline frequency of 0.1 kHz and with tracings often
continuous to 8 kHz (n=17). The mean duration of the call

132
was 0.33 + 0.05 sec with sharp beginnings and endings. With
the exception of one call from a female, Krack calls were
heard only from males.
The Krack call was heard in situations that posed some
element of threat to the bird. This call was always
followed by some type of aggressive behavior on the part of
the signaler, varying from high-intensity Head Forward
Thrust to flying at the receiver. I recorded the call on
five occasions when a cat was sighted, 10 when another GM
came within the signaler's territory, and two when I
approached the nest cavity.
Cluck call. The Cluck call (Figure 15E) consisted of a
series of single syllables that were variable in all
temporal components. The duration of individual syllables
averaged 0.11 ± 0.009 sec (n=25). The call's energy was
between 7.8 ± 0.44 kHz and 1.2 ± 0.07 kHz.
The Cluck call was given during the early period of
pairing in a large number of contexts. It was elicited by
any disturbance, and it frequently elicited a similar call
from other GM present. For example, a territorial owner
called whenever another male GM passed through his breeding
area. Cluck calls were accompanied by low- and high-
intensity Head Forward Thrust displays, both of which served
to move conspecifics away at a breeding or loafing site.
Primary song. The primary song (Figure 16C) consisted
of a series of eight to 11 continuous warbling polysyllabic
sounds (x=8.9 ± 0.67 syllables, n=134). Though harmonic

133
separation was apparent within some of the syllables,
harmonics were not pronounced. Most syllables swept rapidly
downward in frequency with a concentration of energy between
5.2 ± 0.08 kHz and 1.7 ± 0.02 kHz. The songs ranged in
duration from 1.4 to 2.6 sec (1.9 ± 0.54 sec).
A dawn flight song was heard infrequently (18 out of
134 songs), and I was able to record the song on only six
occasions. The male initially perched on a pipe at the
Pumphouse and gave a series of Cheur calls while perched.
The male then flew in a wide circle above the jetty while
delivering a series of songs (x=4.3 songs per session,
n=6 sessions). The bird returned to the nest area immedi¬
ately upon the completion of the bout.
Like the PM, the GM switched from full to incomplete
songs in a variety of circumstances. On 26 occasions a male
began to sing incomplete songs when a neighbor, who had been
silent or singing at a distance, suddenly approached the
mutual territory boundary. Encounters did not ensue on
17 occasions, and the males resumed singing full songs when
they separated. The remaining nine cases preceded fighting
and chasing.
Incomplete song was noted on 42 occasions that did not
involve interactions. In 13 cases, males sang incomplete
songs after bouts of preening while on the pipes. Twenty-
five incomplete songs came at the end of a bout of full
songs. Males sang incomplete songs while foraging in four
other instances.

134
Rattle. The Rattle call (Figure 16D) consisted of a
series of seven to 19 very short notes in rapid succession
(x=8.2 ± 0.08, n=14). Each note averaged 0.02 ± 0.001 sec
in duration. The internóte length varied from 0.04 to
0.06 sec. The length of the call varied from 0.9 to 2.0 sec
(x=1.06 ± 0.06). The frequency range was between
3.1 ± -.08 to 6.4 ± 0.17 kHz (n=14). Like the PM, the GM
used this call with the Gape display.
Caribbean Martin
Zwoot call. The Zwoot call (Figure 16F) was delivered
either singly or in groups of two or more syllables
(x=1.7 ± 0.04, n=28) irregularly spaced over a period of
0.23 to 3.4 sec. The duration of individual syllables
averaged 0.23 ± 0.008 sec. The call's energy was concen¬
trated between 4.4 ± 0.72 kHz and 2.1 ± 0.06 kHz.
The Zwoot call, the most commonly heard vocalization of
the CM, was given by both sexes. This call corresponded to
the Cher call of the PM and Cheur call of the GM. Zwoot
calls were given in flight, sometimes coinciding with a
sudden swerving or change of course. The calls often ended
just as the bird alighted on a palm frond. Paired CM were
frequently out of sight of each other as they foraged, and
this call served to keep individuals informed as to the
location of their mate.
The Zwoot call was also given as a bird pivoted on a
perch. Responses of other birds to the Zwoot call most

135
often resulted in relative changes of position of birds as
they sought to obtain more advantageous viewing positions on
a palm frond.
The Zwoot call was heard on 18 occasions from an adult
leaving the nest hole after feeding the young upon finding
the entrance blocked by its mate. The bird (either sex) in
the process of entering would back out and allow the other
to exit as soon as the call was given.
Wheet call. The Wheet call (Figure 17C) was a double
syllable given at a rate of 1.6 ± 0.12 calls per sec (n=23).
The mean duration of the call was 0.21 ± 0.009 sec, with the
internóte interval averaging 0.07 ± 0.003 sec. The call
showed a drop in frequency from an average high of
5.8 ± 0.38 kHz to an average low of 2.2 + 0.07 kHz, with
some harmonic overtones reaching 8 kHz.
Both sexes gave Wheet calls throughout the breeding
season in a wide variety of situations. They seemed to
indicate that a bird was disturbed by something in the
vicinity as other activities ceased and an Alert High-Up
posture was assumed. They were given when a bird supplanted
a conspecific or a bird of another species, and before a
foraging flight from the nest tree. Birds gave the Wheet
call in the low and high-intensity Head Forward Thrust
position when another CM flew by their territory. A male
also gave the call upon the sudden appearance of his mate.
Croot call. The Croot call (Figure 16G) was complex in
structure with harmonic bands from 0.5 to 5 kHz (n=15) and

k Hi kHl
TIME IN SECONDS
Figure 17. Sonograms of Caribbean Martin vocalizations:
A. Primary song; B. incomplete Primary song;
C. series of Wheet calls; D. series of Kweet
calls from one individual; E. Wrack call.

137
with a downward slur at the end. The individual syllables
averaged 0.29 ± 0.06 sec in duration. Sonograms showed that
the energy was concentrated in two frequency ranges: a low
frequency component around 1.5 ± 0.14 kHz with an exactly
coinciding high frequency component about 4.3 ± 0.51 kHz.
The Croot call was given during retreat behavior in the
Withdraw High-Up position. The call was also noted to occur
in conjunction with other behavior patterns including wing
and tail flicking, bill-wiping, pivoting on the perch, and
moving away. The signaler actually did leave the area on
11 occasions (n=24). Features of the situation which caused
or contributed to retreat included the presence of
(1) another male, (2) another bird species, (3) human
observers, or (4) predators in the area.
The Croot call was also used in male-female inter¬
actions. In 14 of 20 such cases it was associated with
movement toward the female; the remaining cases involved its
use in close proximity to the female. I heard the call
preceding copulation on only one occasion.
Peak call. The Peak call (Figure 16E) was a sharp
high-pitched syllable characterized by a rapid slurring of
the frequency upward, a bowed frequency band in the middle
of the call, and a rapid slurring of the frequency downward.
The call was 1.1 ± 0.07 sec (n=28) in length, and the
frequency of greatest intensity ranged from 4.5 ± 0.05 to
2.3 ± 0.26 kHz.

138
The Peak call was given by both sexes and was used to
indicate low intensity alarm or agitation. The call was
given when a human observer or dog approached the nest tree
(n=19). CM then flew around the potential predator, and
gave the call intermittently. If I remained still and
quiet, the birds would return to the nest tree and cease
giving these Peak calls after a few minutes.
Kweet call. The Kweet call (Figure 17D) consisted of
single syllables averaging 0.25 ± 0.08 sec (n=14) in dura¬
tion. The intersyllable duration was 2.1 + 0.16 sec. The
frequency of this call was between 7.9 ± 0.73 kHz and
1.4 ± 0.05 kHz. The Kweet call differed in frequency
composition with some calls having various types of harmonic
composition and other syllables having no harmonic struc¬
ture. This was the second most frequently heard vocaliza¬
tion .
This call was given in many situations. The Kweet call
appeared to function in keeping individuals aware of the
direction and distance of other members and, in birds that
were alone, to aid in finding other conspecifics. CM gave
Kweets while foraging, after taking flight, and when approach¬
ing or leaving the nest site. The Kweet call was given by
both sexes during aggressive interactions involving either
sex. Males gave Kweet calls while they attacked or chased
other CM or bird species. In 33 of 39 cases Kweets were
given during an aggressive encounter. They were given less
often (6 of 39 cases) during the approach of a predator.

139
Kweet calls were often combined with Wheet calls under such
circumstances.
Wrack call. The Wrack call (Figure 17E) was a harsh
concentrated blast of energy consisting of closely spaced
harmonics which were not distinct. This call was related in
context and structure to the Zwrack call of the PM and Krack
call of the GM. Its duration varied between 0.20 and
0.30 sec (x=0.23 ± 0.005 sec, n=10). The call's energy was
concentrated between 6.0 ± 0.37 kHz and 1.5 ± 0.23 kHz.
This call was used in alarm contexts (n=10). The Wrack
call was given on six occasions when a Red-crowned wood¬
pecker flew to the CM nest tree. On four occasions, a
territorial individual gave this call when a CM intruder
entered the area.
Primary song. The primary song (Figure 17A) was given
only by males and was composed of nine to 12 distinct
syllables (x=10.3 ± 0.87, n=9). The song often began with a
high pitched or strongly inflected syllable, included a
series of rapidly uttered complex syllables, and concluded
with another sharp or inflected syllable.
The chief function of the CM primary song appeared to
be to signal that an individual was on his breeding terri¬
tory. A territorial owner called and sang during 23 terri¬
torial intrusions by another CM. A bird usually sat in the
nest and faced outward while singing (n=26), although songs
occasionally were given by birds clinging to the nest
entrance (n=12).

140
CM songs were also used in sexual contexts, such as
during courting and when establishing pair-bonds. On
15 occasions, a female clung to the nest entrance while the
male sat in the nest and sang. The female entered the nest
on eight occasions, flew off on three occasions, and remained
stationary on the remaining four occasions.
Analysis and Discussion of Vocal Displays
My research demonstrated that martins give vocaliza¬
tions either in conjunction with or apart from visual
displays. I attempted to gain some insight into the signal
function of martin vocalizations by observing the ostensible
effects of each of several vocalizations upon the behavior
of conspecifics in the vicinity of the signaler. As might
be expected from their congeneric status, several of the
vocalizations of the PM appear to be homologous with those
of the GM and CM. These matchings were based on the
similarity of the physical representations seen on sonograms
and upon the similarity of the situations in which the
different species used their respective vocalizations. I
made a quantitative determination of the vocal components of
several types of agonistic encounters by collecting data for
each of the following: (1) low-intensity Head Forward
Thrust, (2) high-intensity Head Forward Thrust, (3) Lunge,
(4) Gape, (5) Withdraw High-Up, and (6) Alert High-Up
(Tables 13-15).

Table 13. Percentage
Martins.
Occurrence of
Vocalizations During
Agonistic
Behavior
of Purple
Vocalization
Types of
Agonistic Behavior
N
Cher
Zweet
Chortle
Hee-hee
Zwrack
Rattle
None
Low-intensity Head
Forward Thrust
100
3
33
13
42
0
0
9
High-intensity Head
Forward Thrust
100
0
22
19
31
23
0
5
Lunge
100
0
11
1
10
67
0
11
Gaping
100
2
2
2
0
0
48
46
Withdraw High-Up
100
7
0
52
0
0
0
41
Alert High-Up
100
33
29
8
17
0
0
13
141

Table 14.
Percentage Occurrence of Vocalizations During Agonistic Behavior of
Gray-Breasted Martins.
Vocalization
Types of
Agonistic Behavior
N
Cheur
Cree
Swat
Zurr
Krack
Rattle
Cluck
None
Low-intensity Head
Forward Thrust
100
2
5
38
29
2
0
14
10
High-intensity Head
Forward Thrust
100
1
0
29
30
12
0
23
5
Lunge
100
2
0
42
37
17
0
2
0
Gaping
100
3
2
0
0
0
56
0
39
Withdraw High-Up
100
4
55
0
0
0
3
4
34
Alert High-Up
100
29
8
3
2
0
0
21
37
142

Table 15. Percentage
Caribbean
Occurrence of
Martins.
Vocalizations During
Agonistic
Behavior
of
Vocalization
Types of
Agonistic Behavior
N
Zwoot
Wheet
Kweet
Croot
Wrack
Peak
None
Low-intensity Head
Forward Thrust
30
3
20
33
3
14
3
24
High-intensity Head
Forward Thrust
30
0
18
37
3
20
16
6
Lunge
30
0
36
24
0
16
0
24
Gaping
30
7
0
3
3
0
13
74
Withdraw High-Up
30
7
0
3
57
0
13
20
Alert High-Up
30
20
27
10
10
0
3
30
143

144
The most common vocal components of the low and high-
intensity Head Forward Thrust displays were the Hee-hee
calls (PM), the Zwat calls (GM), and the Kweet calls (CM).
These three vocalizations all served to increase the distance
between the signaler and receiver and were used most often
during agonistic interactions that preceded fights. They
served to call attention to the aggressive bird and empha¬
sized the display. Birds that gave these calls while they
were being attacked.
Other widely used vocalizations were the Cher (PM),
Cheur (GM) , and Zwoot (CM) calls. All three martin species
used these calls in the same context, often with the same
visual display (Alert High-UP). The calls functioned to
localize conspecifics and to maintain auditory contact with
them even when the signaler could not be seen. In accor¬
dance with this function, these calls were common when a
signaler was foraging, landing, or alerting other indivi¬
duals to its presence. When given by a bird outside the
breeding territory, the meaning signalled to receivers was
that the individual would move near without challenging.
Zweet calls (PM), Zurr calls (GM), and Wheet calls (CM)
were associated with the Head Forward Thrust displays used
during less intense interactions. For example, I noted
several instances in all three species in which a martin
perched at a nesting site gave the species appropriate call
when a rival approached, to which the incoming bird responded
by advancing no further or by retreating. These three calls

145
were also used during alarm situations in association with
the Alert High-Up display or flight.
Chortle calls (PM), Cree calls (GM), and Croot calls
(CM) were characteristic of courtship behavior or retreat.
In the context of retreat, Withdraw High-Up with the
accompanying vocal display meant that the signaler was
terminating interaction by leaving the area.
The criteria for homologies in behavior are the same as
those for morphology in the absence of a fossil record.
Behavior patterns are thought to be of common origin when
they are similar in form, widespread in a group, and have
similar motivations, functions, and derivations (Tinber¬
gen, 1972). Zwrack (PM), Krack (GM), and Wrack (CM) calls
were essentially identical in structural detail and were
given by alarmed or startled birds. These calls functioned
to increase the distance between the signaler and the
receiver. Moreover, some aspects of the call appeared to be
related to their function in that the call seemed explosive
and harsh and momentarily had a startling effect.
In addition to the observations described above, I
collected information about the contexts in which several
vocalizations were given among the martins at their respec¬
tive breeding sites (Tables 16-18). Zweet calls (PM), Zurr
and Cluck calls (GM), and Wheet calls (CM) were given most
often by birds arriving at or leaving the nest sites. Cher
calls (PM), Cheur calls (GM), and Zwoot calls (CM) were
given most often by birds when alone.

Table 16. Percentage of Several Vocalizations Given in Various Contexts by Purple
Martins.
Vocalization
Cher
Zweet
Chortle
Hee-Hee
Zwrack
Factors
(N=100)
(N=100)
(N=100)
(N=100)
(N=l0 0)
Timing:
Upon arrival (±1 s)
33
2
0
z
2
> 1 s after arrival
67
98
100
98
98
Social environment:
other martin(s) present
16
96
97
100
84
other martin(s) not present
84
4
3
0
16
Distance between signaler
and nearest neighbor:
0 to 5 cm
32
64
42
75
52
6 to 10 cm
21
13
31
23
48
11 to 15 cm
19
12
16
1
0
16 to 20 cm
28
11
11
1
0
Association with
agonistic encounters:
disturbance
38
31
34
23
0
attack
0
39
2
47
18
fight
0
8
0
27
33
predator
14
20
5
0
49
other
48
2
59
3
0
146

Table 17.
Percentage of
Martins.
Several Vocalizations Given in
Various Contexts by Gray-Breasted
Vocalization
Factors
Cheur Zurr
(N=100) (N=100)
Cree
(N=100)
Zwat Krack
(N=100) (N=l0 0)
Timing:
Upon arrival (±1 s)
28
6
0
7
3
> 1 s after arrival
72
94
100
93
97
Social environment:
other martin(s) present
23
97
96
100
78
other martin(s) not present
87
3
4
0
22
Distance between signaler
and nearest neighbor:
0 to 1 m
17
73
74
69
61
1 to 2 m
28
21
22
30
28
2 to 4 m
35
6
6
1
10
> 4 m
20
0
0
0
1
Association with
agonistic encounters:
disturbance
27
41
23
25
0
attack
0
27
0
36
12
fight
0
13
0
31
18
predator
18
19
3
0
70
other
55
0
74
8
0
147

Table 18.
Percentage
Martins.
of Several Vocalizations Given in
Various Contexts
by Caribbean
Vocalization
Factors
Zwoot Wheet
(N=30) (N=30)
Croot
(N=30)
Kweet Wrack
(N=30) (N=3 0)
Timing:
Upon arrival (±1 s)
24
13
0
8
0
> 1 s after arrival
76
87
100
92
100
Social environment:
other martin(s) present
24
97
89
100
84
other martin(s) not present
76
3
11
0
16
Distance between signaler
and nearest neighbor:
0 to 3 m
23
65
58
84
60
3 to 6 m
13
18
33
16
40
6 to 9 m
39
11
9
0
0
> 9 m
25
6
0
0
0
Association with
agonistic encounters:
disturbance
41
44
37
24
0
attack
0
11
0
37
6
fight
0
19
0
33
40
predator
0
16
0
0
54
other
59
10
63
6
0
148

149
The calls showed a gradient in terms of the frequency
with which they were given by participants during agonistic
encounters (Tables 16-18). Hee-hee (PM), Zwoot (GM), and
Kweet (CM) were used most during attacks, while Zwrack (PM),
Krack (GM), and Wrack (CM) were used to mob potential
predators. The calls showed a comparable gradient with
respect to distance between the signaler and the nearest
receiver at the breeding sites. For example, in the PM this
distance was greatest for Cher calls, somewhat less for
Chortle calls, still less for Zweet and Zwrack calls and the
least for Hee-hee calls. Thus, Cher and Chortle calls
appeared to be relatively common, low intensity agonistic
calls; whereas vocalizations such as the Zwrack and Hee-hee
were of a higher intensity signal.
The broad range of circumstances in which the primary
song was used indicated that, as with other martin vocaliza¬
tions, it encoded rather general behavioral messages
(Brown, 1984; Smith, 1977; this study). Through the use of
playback experiments, song has been found to convey species
identity (Kroodsma, 1974; Shiovitz, 1975), individual
identity (Boughey & Thompson, 1976; Brooks & Falls, 1975;
Emlen, 1971), and to indicate territorial and pairbond
status (Emlen, 1972; Morse, 1970). The martins' primary
song was also rich in identifying messages indicating that
the singer was a male, in breeding condition, and on his
territory. In addition, a receiver with previous experience

150
might be able to identify the singer as a specific indi¬
vidual, in my opinion.
It is difficult to suggest which behavioral selection
message the primary song encodes. The message is most
likely one related to interactional behavior, indicating
that the singer is prepared to interact in any of the ways
typical of territorial male martins. Perhaps this is the
only behavioral selection message encoded. However, such a
message could have a variety of meanings to different
recipients. To a male who was a potential intruder it could
signify a threat; to an unmated female it could mean the
presence of a potential mate. The male of all three species
was observed to perch nearby and to sing while his mate
built the nest. Thus, primary song may function to stimu¬
late ovulation in female martins as seems to be the case in
budgerigars (Melopsittacus undulatus, Brockway, 1965;
Ficken et al., 1960), ring doves (Streptopelia risoria, Lott
et al. 1967), and canaries (Serinus canarius, person, comm.
James Mulligan).
The messages for incomplete song were equally difficult
to determine. Incomplete song frequently accompanied attack
in encounter situations. Its use, however, in other situa¬
tions such as copulation attempts and flight song argues
against the encoding of a specific attack message. Perhaps
an attack meaning is discerned by the receiver only in
specific contexts of the signal. The main difference
between primary and incomplete song relates to differences

151
in the intensity of the behavioral selection. Incomplete
song indicated a higher probability of a more intense
interaction, whether aggressive or sexual.
Stereotypy
Quantitative analyses of bird vocalizations have
focused principally on determining the extent of song and
call stereotypy within and among populations (Bitterbaum &
Baptista, 1979; Kroodsma & Verner, 1979, Marler & Tamura,
1962, Smith et al., 1980). In species in which vocaliza¬
tions have been shown to convey both individual and species
recognition, different aspects of the vocalization are
generally involved in each case (Emlen, 1972). Species
recognition is facilitated by certain features of the
vocalization that are common to all members of that species.
When songs or calls transmit the identity of the singer,
however, variation of some aspect of the vocalization(s) is
required. In certain colonial sea birds, for example,
individual vocalizations differ primarily in intensity
patterns (Hand, 1981).
Most of the parameters of martin vocalizations that I
measured showed a high degree of stereotypy (Tables 19-21).
Coefficients of variation ranged from 1.6% to 53% for the
measured parameters. Of the four parameters I measured for
each call, 84% (n=72) had a coefficient of variation of
16% or less. Intervals between calls were the most stable
parameter (cv<15%). The duration of syllables of repeated
calls was also very consistent (e.g., PM: Cher calls,

152
Table 19. Comparison of the Physical Characteristics of
Purple Martin Vocalizations.
Call
N
X
SD
CV
Cher
Duration of calls
159
0.12
0.003
2.5
Interval between calls
158
0.4
0.02
5.0
Maximum frequency
159
4.7
0.21
4.4
Minimum frequency
159
0.9
0.02
2.2
Zweet
Duration of calls
30
0.13
0.02
15.3
Interval between calls
29
0.12
0.005
4.1
Maximum frequency
30
4.5
0.19
4.2
Minimum frequency
30
1.8
0.15
8.3
Hee-hee
Duration of calls
50
0.28
0.04
14.2
Interval between calls
48
0.15
0.006
4.0
Maximum frequency
50
5.2
0.4
6.5
Minimum frequency
50
1.3
0.16
12.3
Chortle
Duration of calls
45
0.18
0.06
33.0
Interval between calls
43
0.13
0.02
15.3
Maximum frequency
45
3.3
0.19
5.7
Minimum frequency
45
0.95
0.05
5.2
Zwrack
Duration of calls
24
0.24
0.02
8.3
Interval between calls
—
—
--
--
Maximum frequency
24
5.7
0.58
10.1
Minimum frequency
24
2.0
0.15
7.5
Choo
Duration of calls
22
0.16
0.007
4.3
Interval between calls
21
0.16
0.09
12.5
Maximum frequency
22
4.1
0.97
11.4
Minimum frequency
22
0.7
0.06
22.0
Rattle
Duration of calls
40
1.05
0.76
53.0
Interval between calls
39
0.50
0.08
1.6
Maximum frequency
40
6.0
0.42
7.0
Minimum frequency
40
3.5
0.61
17.4
aAll durations and intervals are in sec.
°A11 frequencies are in kHz.

153
Table 20. Comparison of the Physical Characteristics of
Gray-Breasted Martin Vocalizations.
Call
N
X
SD
CV
Cheur
Duration of calls
62
0.13
0.02
15.0
Interval between calls
61
0.50
0.06
11.0
Maximum frequency
62
7.1
0.26
3.6
Minimum frequency
62
0.9
0.23
25.0
Cree
Duration of calls
38
1.1
0.07
6.3
Interval between calls
37
0.26
0.20
5.6
Maximum frequency .
38
4.9
0.18
3.6
Minimum frequency
38
2.1
0.20
9.5
Zwat
Duration of calls
26
0.22
0.006
2.7
Interval between calls
—
—
—
—
Maximum frequency
26
7.4
0.46
6.2
Minimum frequency
26
0.8
0.09
11.2
Zurr
Duration of calls
46
0.16
0.03
18.7
Interval between calls
45
1.1
0.17
15.4
Maximum frequency
46
3.8
0.17
4.4
Minimum frequency
46
0.9
0.12
13.3
Krack
Duration of calls
17
0.33
0.05
15.1
Interval between calls
—
—
—
—
Maximum frequency
17
8.0
0.34
4.2
Minimum frequency
17
0.1
0.007
7.0
Cluck
Duration of calls
25
0.11
0.009
8.1
Interval between calls
—
—
—
—
Maximum frequency
25
7.8
0.44
5.6
Minimum frequency
25
1.2
0.07
5.8
Rattle
Duration of calls
14
1.06
0.06
5.6
Interval between calls
60
4.9
0.15
3.0
Maximum frequency
14
6.4
1.7
26.0
Minimum frequency
14
3.1
0.08
2.5
aAll durations and intervals are in sec.
bAll frequencies are in kHz.

154
Table 21. Comparison of the Physical Characteristics of
Caribbean Martin Vocalizations.
Call
N
X
SD
CV
Zwoot
Duration of calls
30
0.23
0.008
3.4
Interval between calls
—
—
—
—
Maximum frequency
30
4.4
0.72
16.3
Minimum frequency
30
2.1
0.06
2.8
Wheet
Duration of calls
23
0.21
0.009
4.3
Interval between calls
21
0.07
0.003
4.2
Maximum frequency
23
5.8
0.38
6.5
Minimum frequency
23
2.2
0.07
3 . 1
Croot
Duration of calls
15
0.29
0.06
20.6
Interval between calls
—
—
—
—
Maximum frequency
15
4.3
0.51
11.8
Minimum frequency
15
1.5
0.14
9.3
Peak
Duration of calls
28
1.1
0.02
6.3
Interval between calls
—
—
—
—
Maximum frequency
28
4.5
0.85
18.8
Minimum frequency
28
2.3
0.26
11.3
Kweet
Duration of calls
14
0.25
0.08
32.0
Interval between calls
13
2.1
0.16
7.6
Maximum frequency
14
7.9
0.73
9.2
Minimum frequency
14
1.4
0.05
3.5
Wrack
Duration of calls
10
0.23
0.005
2.1
Interval between calls
—
--
—
—
Maximum frequency
10
6.0
0.37
6.1
Minimum frequency
10
1.5
0.03
15.3
aAll durations and intervals are in sec.
UA11 frequencies are in kHz.

155
cv=2.5%; GM: Cree calls, cv=6.3%; CM: Zwoot calls, cv=3.5%).
The duration and frequency of calls were the most variable
parameters. Of the eight with coefficients of variation
greater than 10%, four were frequency components and
two were song length measurements.
There are two possible explanations for the variability
in the call displays. First, the overall degree of varia¬
bility of many calls given by a specific individual over a
short period of time could serve to reduce habituation on
the part of the receiver. A bird, separated from a mate or
flock, who gives a consecutive location call differing in
duration, frequency, or intensity might actually be sig¬
nalling to others that it is still separated. The viability
in these calls may reflect a version of Hartshorne's anti¬
monotony hypothesis for bird song (Hartshorne, 1956).
Second, variability in martin calls could be correlated
with subtle changes in behavioral states that are not
readily apparent to human observers. The similarity of the
elements within a call to other discrete call types within
the repertoire may be important for a receiver's determina¬
tion of the functions of variants of that individual's call
type.
Marler (1967) postulated that a call's species-specific
properties may lie in its overall temporal pattern, while
individuality is possible through detailed changes of pitch.
Thus, a call conforms to that typical of the species while
conveying information that identifies the individual. The

156
physical structure of the martin calls seems to be adapted
for conveying species and individual identity. For example,
the Hee-hee (PM), Zwat (GM), and Croot calls (CM) showed
their greatest variation in frequency parameters (Tables
19-21). Individuality may be conveyed by discrete patterns
of overtones and detailed frequency variations of the main
tone within rather fixed limits. In addition, each bird
still retains variability by being able to use amplitude
changes, different calls, and individual rates of calling or
repetition.
Ecology of Communication
Marler (1955b, 1967) classified vocalizations according
to whether they facilitated or hindered locating the
signaler's position. Calls that could be located readily
were characterized by brevity, many changes of frequency,
low frequencies, and abrupt beginnings and endings. Calls
that were harder to locate had long durations, no sudden
frequency changes, no discontinuities, and gradual begin¬
nings and endings.
The majority of vocal signals used by the martins I
studied were characterized by qualities that appeared to be
adaptive for communication in the open areas they inhabit.
These sounds were easy to locate as they had abrupt
discontinuities, a wide frequency range, and repetitious
pulses. For example, the Cher (PM), Cheur (GM, and Zwoot
(CM) calls were low in frequency, were repeated in

157
sequences, and provided the many breaks and repetitions
necessary for locating by time differences. Localizing
these calls readily was important because they were often
given when a mate was absent, thereby serving as an attrac-
tant.
The Hee-hee (PM), Zwat (GM), and Kweet (CM) calls used
in aggressive encounters were also easy to locate because of
their repetitive long syllables and high amplitude with
several high harmonics stressed. The distribution of energy
across several harmonics can facilitate location of call.
Although energy at high frequencies decays more rapidly than
that at low frequencies (Wiley & Richards, 1978), the higher
amplitude of these calls may compensate for the decay of
higher frequencies. The selective decay of higher frequen¬
cies with increasing distance could also provide a receiver
with information as to how distant the signaler is from the
receiver.
Open habitats, however, are difficult environments for
sound propagation due largely to wind speed and temperature
stratification. These conditions diffract the sound wave
front upward, producing a soundless area or "shadow zone"
effect that can be eliminated if a bird calls from as little
as 3 to 7 m above the ground (Morton, 1975). The three
species of martins I studied performed dawn song flights at
a minimum of 10 m above the ground, thus increasing their
broadcasting effectiveness. Moreover, the use of elevated
perches (e.g., telephone wires, rooftops of houses) for

158
calling and singing may minimize the blockage and
muffling of sound by obstacles such as shrubs and trees
that would otherwise deflect low frequencies (Hjorth, 1976;
Knudsen, 1980).
Many birds exhibit one of two contrasting modes of
response when threatened by predators (Charnov &
Krebs, 1975). In the aggressive mode song birds may attack
and mob nearby predators. Hawks, owls, canids, snakes,
humans, and other forms of predators may be subjected to
repeated attacks accompanied by raucous and incessant
mobbing calls. This signal acts as an attractant, inciting
conspecifics to join in the foray. In contrast, only a
faint alarm call may be sounded in the flight mode. Con-
specifics appear to be repelled by the call and exhibit a
variety of evasive maneuvers.
These two classes of vocalizations are as different in
acoustical structure as they are in their tactical conse¬
quences. Marler (1955, 1967) proposed that the structure of
alarm calls evolved to impair sound localization by a
predator, thereby reducing the risk incurred by the signaler.
Conversely, mobbing calls should promote sound localiza¬
tions, an attribute consonant with their role as attractants.
The Zwrack (PM), Krack (GM), and Wrack (CM) calls used
during mobbing provided abundant clues of the signaler's
location. They tended to start and end abruptly, were
segmented, and covered a wide range of frequencies. This
manner of calling could be adaptive since a martin, rather

159
than trying to conceal itself, actively pursued the predator.
The only calls used in alarm situations that did not exhibit
any appreciable frequency changes were Zweet (PM), Cree
(GM), and Wheet (CM) calls. These calls were pitched
higher, lacked abrupt phase or intensity differences, and
approximated the pure tones of birds whose calls are diffi¬
cult for predators to locate.
Morton (1975) predicted that open country birds would
not base information transfer on sound frequency (which is
easily distorted by the aforementioned environmental
conditions). Instead, he suggested that information coding
should be based on temporal components that remain essen¬
tially intact as long as a sound is audible. The duration
and spacing of syllables of the martin calls used during
foraging or contact were less variable than their frequency.
Furthermore, most martin vocalizations used in these contexts
emphasized frequencies of about 2.0 to 3.5 kHz, and there¬
fore had a relatively low attenuation rate. Only the
aggressive calls (PM:Hee-hee calls, GM:Zwat calls, CMrKweet
calls) and, to a lesser extent, excitement calls (PM:Chortle
calls, GMiCree calls, CMrCroot calls) exhibited any appre¬
ciable frequency changes.
Refinements of Morton's interpretation (Marten &
Marler, 1977, Marten et al., 1977) generated similar predic¬
tions with respect to the maximization of sound transmission
by martins. Based on these findings, the birds should:
(1) vocalize from more than 1 m above the ground, (2) use

160
low frequency sounds of approximately 3 kHz, and (3) produce
sounds with the energy concentrated in a relatively narrow
band. My findings for martins calling while foraging or
while locating other members supported these predictions.
Morton (1977) described a theory of signal structure
that was based on motivational-structural forces. He
postulated that these forces resulted from environmentally
selective pressures, and that they acted primarily on
vocalizations used in situations of close proximity. Morton
observed that vocal convergence appears in many birds and
other animal species in similar motivational settings. The
acoustical composition of the Progne vocal displays I
studied agreed with Morton's (1977) communication rules.
Martins tended to use harsh, low frequency sounds in hostile
situations while they used higher frequency sounds in
appeasement or escape situations. Martins used pure tones
to express states of low excitation and distress, harsh
sounds for attack behavior and excitement, and short soft
sounds for withdrawal or sexual behavior. A martin's use of
vocalizations in conjunction with a visual display could
increase the signaler's effectiveness in drawing the atten¬
tion of the receiver.

TERRITORIALITY
There has been much controversy during the last
50 years about the biological function of territory.
Numerous definitions of territoriality exist. This is due
partly to a misunderstanding about the meaning of the term
and partly to the very complex nature of the concept. Most
definitions require that there be occupation of exclusive
areas, which are maintained through behavioral interactions.
Social systems based on territoriality have been documented
for animals ranging from crustaceans to primates (reviews in
Brown, 1975; Sade, 1967; Schien, 1975; Wilson, 1971, 1975).
Kaufman (1971, 1983) suggested that we should not be
concerned with whether a species is territorial or not, but
rather with whether or not the species exhibits some form of
social behavior that restricts the use of space by
individuals. He points out that if the ultimate criterion
for territory-holding is overt defense against members of
the same species, then many of the descriptions of territory
must be rejected. This lack of consistency in describing
territorial behavior explains a portion of the controversy
in the ethological literature. Whether or not one agrees
with Kaufman, breeding territories are diverse and
161

162
classifying them is thus difficult. The definition proposed
by Nobles (1939) of a "defended area," whether defended by
threat, actual combat, or any behavior pattern evoking
avoidance in other individuals is, for this study, a good
working definition.
Assessment
Animal contests in defense of resources generally occur
when there are fewer resources than competitors and if an
individual will gain a fitness benefit by winning a contest
(Parker, 1974; Parker & Rubenstein, 1981). In these situa¬
tions selection should favor aggressive defense since the
benefits gained will outweigh any of the necessarily incurred
costs.
Most pairwise contests are asymmetric (Maynard
Smith, 1982). According to game theory, an optimal assessor
should use these asymmetries as a cue to settle conflicts
conventionally, without harmful escalation. There are a
number of ways in which the outcome of a contest might be
biased in favor of one or the other contestant. Maynard
Smith and Parker (1976) divided these asymmetries into
three broad categories: (1) resource holding potential
(RHP) asymmetries (contestants differ in their competitive
ability), (2) payoff asymmetries (contestants differ in
expected benefit from gaining the resource), and (3) uncor¬
related asymmetries (contestants differ in some way which is
unrelated either to RHP or payoff, but in a way which can be

163
used as an arbitrary cue to settle contests). Ownership
could be adopted as an arbitrary rule that determines the
outcome of contests, for example, owners always win.
Territoriality can be considered as a form of resource
defense which is favored by selection when a defendable area
has a high probable yield of increasing fitness. Therefore,
territory size can be considered as the outcome of contests
between an owner and its neighbors, subject to the
asymmetries listed above. Agonistic behavior exhibited by
martins engaged in disputes over territories indicated that
assessments of RHP and resource value are made by individual
contestants. The cues that may actually mediate shifts in
the agonistic behavior of martins are considered in this
section.
Purple Martin
Establishment of Territory
The first visits of the adult birds to the breeding
areas usually were short, seldom lasting more than an hour
(n-16, x=37 mins.). Immediately after arrival, the martins
showed interest in the nesting rooms at a multiroom house,
or in particular gourds at a gourd complex. Males and
females went in and out of several potential nest rooms,
then males sat serially in front of several nest holes and
sang, and finally both sexes left the breeding area, not to
be seen again for several days to even several weeks (Allen

164
& Nice, 1952; Bitterbaum, this study; Finlay, 1971; Johnston
& Hardy, 1962; Richmond, 1953).
In the five years of my study, I found only two excep¬
tions to this schedule of arriving and then immediately
leaving the breeding sites. Both were in 1978, in Gaines¬
ville. I recorded three adult males that arrived on
15 February and two adult males that arrived on 27 February
at two separate locations. The birds remained in residence
continually for the remainder of the breeding season.
PM established territories early in the breeding season
before they began building nests. Territories in multiroom
houses consisted of several rooms and the adjoining porches.
Roofs of martin houses were not defended and were buffer
zones not specifically claimed by any resident males.
Since space was at a premium in most colonies, birds
came to recognize territorial boundaries, landing and
perching "rights" near the nest, and areas of loafing.
Spacing was maintained by the males with each advertising
and defending his territory by song, aggressive threat,
supplanting, and actual combat. Neighboring birds learned
the boundaries of their territories after many disputes and
then retained this knowledge for the remainder of the
breeding season.
Only during cold and rainy weather would attention to
nesting territories cease altogether. Martins then spent
the majority of their time in flight, gathering insects, or
clustered together in nest rooms so that they were in

165
maximum contact, with heads partially hidden under the
shoulders and breasts of each other. In north central
Texas, Brown (1976) found that when temperatures were 6°C or
lower martins spent most of the day inside the martin
houses. The minimum temperature for feeding was 9°C, and at
temperatures of greater than 13°C, birds were able to locate
ample food.
Establishment of a Territory by Later Arriving Birds
Newly arrived nonresident adults and first-year males,
which appeared three to six weeks after the first birds
arrived, tried to take over parts of established territories
through a process of constant challenging. Newly arrived
males successively challenged each resident male as if
attempting to find an opponent upon whose territory they
could intrude.
An example of this was noted at the Gainesville Country
Club Colony site. On 23 March 1978 a nonresident male was
seen challenging several resident males, one after another,
for a period of two hours. On 25 March this intruder was
able to force male Green to relinquish a nest room, and the
two birds occupied adjoining rooms for the breeding season.
It appeared that this intruder, which was captured and
color-marked Orange, lost most of its fights with resident
Green. However, by persistent fighting and maintaining his
position at the house, he overcame opposition and was able
to defend a nest hole for the 1978 season.

166
Behavior of First-Year Males
First year male PM are sexually mature at ten months of
age, six months before they attain adult plumage. On
18 occasions, at the start of the breeding season, I saw
adult males actively defend their territories against
first-year males for as long as three days only to suddenly
ignore the first-year males, allowing them to breed without
the resident adult male ever apparently being defeated.
Also, seven first-year males were successful in obtaining
breeding sites by withstanding attacks by adult territorial
males rather than by initiating aggression against terri¬
tory-holders .
Allen and Nice (1952), Johnston and Hardy (1962), and
Rohwer and Niles (1979) indicated that adult males often
tolerated or were less aggressive toward light-breasted
males, perhaps assuming that the birds were females. I
detected no such differences in behavior. First-year males,
though resembling females, showed all the aggressive
behavior patterns found in adult males. During 136 encoun¬
ters between adult and first-year males, the first-year
males were treated by resident males in the same manner as
other intruding adult males. In 1978 at the Gainesville
Country Club colony, the mean date of territory establish¬
ment for first-year males (24 April, n=2) occurred 33 days
after the mean date of territory establishment for adult
males (22 March, n=6).

167
Territory Size
Game theory predicts that the level of escalation
reached in a contest over a disputed resource will reflect
the importance of the resource to both contestants. One
must consider site availability in addition to site quality,
since ultimately a resource is less valuable if it is in
ready supply than if it is in limited supply. Individual PM
territories varied in size and availability during the
breeding season. Using Brown's method (1979), I distin¬
guished maximum and minimum territories in PMs. The maximum
territory was the number of compartments a male defended
upon his arrival at the house. The minimum territory was
the number of compartments a male defended after the eggs
had hatched and the male was feeding young.
The maximum territories were large as the early
arriving birds entered the multiroom houses, but the terri¬
tories soon decreased in sized as later arriving martins and
other hole-nesting birds looked for nesting sites. These
temporarily large territories, in which more than one com¬
partment was defended, resulted from the lack of competition
from other males. With the arrival of later migrants,
however, early males were forced to relinquish most of their
territories. Figure 18 shows that the majority of the
minimum territories had been established at the multiroom
houses by late March (r=.93, df=18, p<0.01).
As discovered by Brown (1979), I found that the progres¬
sion from maximum to minimum territory was either: (1) by

168
20 25 1 5
Feb. March
10
15
20 25
1 5
April
10
15
Time
of
Year
Figure 18. The dates bn which the minimum territory size
was established at the Purple Martin multiroom
houses.

169
degree—the males slowly relinquished parts of their maximum
territory in response to persistent challenges by other
males; or (2) abrupt—one day a male defended a maximum
territory and the next day he defended a minimum territory,
the size of which was maintained during the remainder of the
season. Table 22 shows maximum and minimum territory size
of male martins along with their months of arrival.
Thirty-eight males (76%) initially claimed territories with
more than one room. Only 11 males (22%) claimed their
maximum territory as one room. Of the 38 males who claimed
multiroom territories, only nine (18%) were able to defend
more than one room throughout the breeding season. The
largest maximum territory was that of a male who success¬
fully defended a house with 24 rooms. The mean maximum
territory defended was 3.9 rooms and the mean minimum
territory defended was 1.2 rooms.
Territory size varied with population density (Fig¬
ure 19). I found a negative correlation between territory
size and the number of birds at a multiroom house (r=-.82,
df=21, p<0.01). This supported the idea that a primary
cause of variation in territory size was competition from
neighboring birds (e.g., Ewald et. al., 1980). I quantified
the variation in competition by dividing the number of male
intrusions by the total observation time per bird. Fig¬
ure 20 shows that a positive correlation exists between
territory size and the number of intrusions, indicating that

170
Table 22. Number of Male Purple Martins and Their Maximum
and Minimum Territory Sizes with Male's Months of
Arrival (Following Brown, 1979).
Month of Mean
Arrival Territory Size (No. of rooms) Size
1
2
3
4
5
6
8
12
24
FEBRUARY
maximum
2
4
4
6
0
3
0
1
0
3.8
minimum
13
5
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
1.5
MARCH
maximum
5
3
5
3
1
2
2
1
1
4.7
minimum
21
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2.0
APRIL
maximum
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1.8
minimum
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1.0
MAY
maximum
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1.0
minimum
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1.0
TOTAL
maximum
11
8
10
9
1
5
2
2
1
3.9
minimum
40
6
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
1.2

Territory Size (No. of rooms defended)
171
Figure 19. Territory size as a function of the number of
Purple Martin males at a multiroom house.

Territory Size (No. of rooms defended)
172
0
.5
1.0
L5 2tO ?5 75
intrusion Pressure
No.of fights / bird / hour
Figure 20. Territory size as a function of the number of
fights at a Purple Martin multiroom house.

173
population density can affect variation in the territory
size of PMs at multiroom houses (r=.91, df=13, p<0.01).
Gourd Complex Versus Multiroom Houses
Individual PMs behaved differently in different
breeding situations, probably due to the spacing of their
nests. Birds at a gourd complex with the nests a third of a
m apart spent less time fighting (Table 23: t=7.78, df=3,
p<0.05) and more time loafing than birds at a multiroom
house with the nests only nine cm apart (Table 24: t=3.79,
df=3, p<0.05). the third of a m between nests in a gourd
complex prevented birds from interacting, whereas the
nine cm between nest rooms in a multiroom house increased
territorial interactions and possibly disrupted breeding
activities.
A second important difference between PMs nesting in
multiroom houses and those nesting in gourds was that
multiroom house residents usually had a number of nest rooms
within their territory. This allowed males the greater
potential of breeding with more than one female. In con¬
trast, the greater spacing of nests in a gourd complex
precluded males from defending more than one nest.
Polygyny is uncommon in the PM. Some 17% of all
females in Brown's studies (1975, 1979) were mated with
polygynous males. In Gainesville, I found 6% (n=9) of all
females mated with polygynous males. That adult male PMs
are potentially polygynous (i.e., hold a second nest room

174
Table 23. A Comparison of the Number of Fights at a Gourd
Complex
Martin
Versus a
Males.
Multiroom House
for
Purple
Total
Total # Observa-
of Fights tion hrs. #
Fights/
Birds Hr./Bird
Feb. 14-March 14
39
Gourd Complex
71
3
0.180
March 15-April 15
54
88
4
0.150
April 16-May 16
13
67
6
0.031
May 17-June 17
3
64
6
0.006
Totals
109
290
6
0.063*
Feb. 14-March 14
192
Multiroom House
122 3
0.525
March 15-April 15
264
141
6
0.312
April 16-May 16
133
148
7
0.127
May 17-June 17
28
153
7
0.025
Totals
617
564
7
0.156*
*t = 7.78, df = 3, p < 0.01.

175
Table 24. A Comparison of the Length of Time Spent Loafing
at Gourd Complex Versus a Multiroom House for
Purple Martin Males.
Total
Total # hrs. Observa-
Loafing tion hrs.
Hrs. /
Loafing/
# Birds Bird
Gourd Complex
Feb. 14-March 14
20
71
3
0.093
March 15-April 15
37
88
4
0.105
April 16-May 16
35
67
6
0.086
May 17-June 17
18
64
6
0.046
Totals
110
290
6
0.063*
Multiroom House
Feb. 14-March 14
23
122
3
0.063
March 15-April 15
30
141
6
0.035
April 16-May 16
43
148
7
0.041
May 17-June 17
28
153
7
0.026
Totals
124
564
7
0.031*
*t = 3.79, df = 3, £ < 0.05.

176
where another female can breed), and that so few of them
obtain a second mate may, depend on whether other males are
able to gain residence in the multiroom houses and eventu¬
ally breed. First-year males never succeeded in becoming
polygynous in this study, probably because they were unable
to defend more than one nest room or because they arrived so
late there were none available. Polygyny, therefore,
apparently exists in the PM only under the following condi¬
tions: (1) a multiroom house with many nest rooms in close
proximity, (2) a low density of males, and (3) an excess
number of females. In the GM and CM, potential breeding
sites were more widely separated because of the discontin¬
uous nature of the nesting holes. This eliminated oppor¬
tunities for polygyny.
Gray-Breasted Martin
Establishment of Territory
At Pointe-a-Pierre, Trinidad, GM were visiting the
breeding area when I arrived on 18 April 1979. Breeding
pairs were formed before the territories were established so
territorial behavior was not as important in bringing the
sexes together as in the PM. Because GMs in Trinidad do not
migrate (ffrench 1976) , this may contribute to the perma¬
nence of the pair bond. Although territories cease to exist
in the winter, mated birds spend most of their time in the
vicinity of their territories of the previous year (Renson

177
James, personal communication). During the winter of
1979-80, Renson James observed resident male GMs chasing
nonresident males and hole-nesting White-winged Swallows
(Tachycineta albiventer) away from resident males' nest
cavities on 117 occasions. One benefit to year-round
nest-site guarding behavior is the pronounced reproductive
advantage for guarders over late-arriving nonguarding birds
who would find fewer breeding cavities.
During the first few weeks of the breeding season, each
of the pairs in the pumphouse area showed an increasing
preference for a particular part of the breeding site.
Certain pipes came to be used regularly as song posts by
males, and pairs spent most of each morning within their
preferred areas. The Pumphouse roof and more distant pipes
were the only common buffer zones near the territories where
any bird could sit or fly unmolested.
The GM breeding sites were clumped in distribution
because broken pipes occurred close together. The average
distance between nest cavities was 17.6 m (range 14 m to
22m), and the intervening space was defended. The terri¬
tories at the Pumphouse were neither rigid nor clearly
defined. Instead, they consisted of a fluid region around
certain preferred pipes with the region's size depending on
competition from neighboring males. Figure 21 shows that in
the GM, like the PM, a positive correlation existed between
territory size and competitive intrusions (r=.83, df=9,

178
Figure 21. Territory size as a function of the number of
fights at the Gray-breasted Martin nesting area.

179
p<0.05). Aggression between neighboring males gradually
decreased once boundaries were established.
Gray-Breasted Martin Colony Defense
GM appeared to have a type of mutual defense against
encroachment by the nonneighboring males nesting in other
areas along the jetty. Resident males did not drive out all
intruders indiscriminately. Residents clearly recognized
their established neighbors, and territorial defense was
directed against nonresidents who represented a potential
threat to a resident's cavity. On 34 occasions, I observed
resident males defend the pumphouse area from nonresident
intruders. Though these intruders were usually chased by
the dominant males at the Pumphouse, all males defended at
least occasionally. On five other occasions at the Pump¬
house when two neighboring males were displaying aggres¬
sively towards each other and a nonneighbor entered the
area, both of the resident males stopped displaying and
attacked the stranger. Females never defended actively but
perched and called loudly nearby during such defenses.
Given the individual recognition and tolerance of
neighbors at the Pumphouse, I predicted that fighting
between strangers and residents would be more frequent and
intense than that between residents. When I tested this
prediction, I found that males fought more frequently and
for longer time periods against strangers than against known
established neighbors (Mann-Whitney, U=1.5, n=20, p<0.05).

180
While such defense probably was conducted by each male
simply with respect to his own nest cavity, such actions
effectively resulted in colony defense and exclusivity of
the colony area for its members.
In the PM, there was no evidence of a defended flock
territory around a multiroom house or gourd complex.
Unmarked birds, presumably of other colonies, were repeatedly
seen mingling with the marked local birds at their nesting
sites without signs of antagonism.
Caribbean Martin
Like the GM, CM pairs, showed a gradually increasing
preference for particular areas which later became their
territories. CM had territories with vague boundaries at
Pigeon Point since the population of birds was not dense and
nests were widely separated due to the dispersion of avail¬
able nest sites. At the beginning of my field work on CM, I
watched three pairs that had not yet commenced breeding. I
saw a total of only 16 hostile encounters among them in
four weeks.
As in GM and PM, CM territorial defense was solely by
males. Once established, territories were seldom
trespassed. Thus, there was little territorial fighting.
The birds mutually avoided each other's area. When tres¬
passing occurred intruders always (n=52) fled when resident
males sang. I saw neighboring males enter territories of
known males and flee when those males sang on 52 occasions.

181
On 29 of those occasions the intruder did not see the male
but seemingly fled only because of his vocalizations. The
intruders did not flee on 37 occasions: these were times
when the males did not sing.
I saw resident males attack intruders in flight on
16 occasions. The territorial bird flew straight at the
intruder each time. The intruder then turned and fled
(n=16), and often was chased (n=7). On two occasions the
territorial bird struck the trespasser and they grappled,
falling to the ground. The trespasser broke loose and fled
while the defender returned to its nest tree both times.
CM's showed a strong nest site attachment and defended
an area extending at least 8 m in all directions from the
nest cavity. I saw resident males chase intruders from
these areas 67 times. Chases were directed not only at
martins but at other species, including Red-crowned Wood¬
peckers, Blue-gray Tanagers (Thraupis eipiscopus), and
Buff-throated Woodcreepers (Xiphorhynchus guttatus).
Asymmetry in Resource Holding Potential (RHP)
The significance of asymmetries in conflicts depends on
the ability of the opponents to perceive such asymmetries
and adjust their own behavior accordingly. Maynard Smith
and Price (1973) modelled one possible game between oppon¬
ents. They used five strategies in this model: Hawk,
Mouse, Bully, Retaliator, or Prober-Retaliator. An indivi¬
dual who exhibits the Hawk pattern is one who escalates to

182
fighting behavior immediately following RHP assessment and
continues the warlike behavior throughout the remainder of
the encounter. A Mouse is an individual who tends to
retreat regardless of the behavior exhibited by its opponent.
The Bully category is assigned to those individuals who
initially escalate to contact behavior, but adopt more
conventional behavior if the opponent does not withdraw.
The Retaliator adjusts its behavior in response to that of
the opponent, whereas the Prober-Retaliator tends to
initiate escalation and then to respond to the behavior of
the opponent.
Imperfect information or weak asymmetries may lead to
escalated contests because individuals have incorrect
information about their roles (Maynard Smith & Parker,
1976). Often a trial contest is the only way accurate
information can be acquired; therefore, individuals are
liable to make several attempts to assess their relative
strength (Parker & Rubenstein, 1981). A short struggle will
occur if one attempt provides enough information about the
contestants' fighting ability or if the disparity in
fighting ability is large.
In many contests, certain features of an opponent
provide information about its RHP. Sex, age, body size and
weight, plumage coloration, experience, and residency at a
breeding site all are variables that may influence an
individual's RHP (Brown, 1963; Parsons & Baptista, 1980;

183
Rohwer, 1975, 1977; Sabine, 1955, 1956, 1959; Tordoff,
1954). The importance of these variables as determinants of
an individual's competitive ability will be considered first
separately and then together where possible.
Asymmetry in Ownership Status
The relative ownership status of opponents prior to an
agonistic encounter could be an important determinant of the
outcome of that encounter. If the resource defended is a
territory, then territory owners could have the advantage of
residency over any intruders in subsequent boundary inter¬
actions. Thus, it could be predicted that those individuals
who establish territories early in the season when there are
relatively few competing pairs would always have an owners'
advantage and should retain relatively more of the defended
resource.
The dominance of established birds over newly arrived
individuals at the nest sites in Florida and Trinidad
suggested that prior occupancy of a nest site was an impor¬
tant underlying factor in determining the outcome of competi¬
tion for ownership of a breeding site. An analysis of
residency in relation to winning an encounter showed that
resident members were dominant over intruders in 65 (72%) of
all PM encounters, and in 85 (81%) of all GM interactions
(Table 25, PM: x2=17.77, df=l, p<0.01; GM: x2=40.23, df=l,
p<0.01) .

184
Table 25. Comparison of Whether Prior Occupancy at a
Nesting Site Determines the Winner of the
Encounter.
Resident
Wins
Nonresident
Wins
Totals
P
x2
Purple Martin
65
25
90
<0.01
17.77
Gray-Breasted
85
20
105
<0.01
40.23
Martin

185
Asymmetry in Age-Related Plumage Characteristics
The correlation of certain age-related plumage charac¬
teristics and dominance has been shown in a number of
species: (1) White-throated Sparrows (Zonotrichia
albicollis, Ficken et al., 1978; Hailman, 1975), (2) White-
crowned Sparrows (Zonotrichia leucophyrs, Parsons &
Baptista, 1980), and (3) Harris Sparrows (Zonotrichia
querula, Rohwer, 1982). Rohwer (1971, 1982) proposed the
status-signaling hypothesis in which birds showing plumage
viability use these plumage traits to signal potential
dominance status to conspecifics. Rohwer (1975) predicted
that status advertisement is advantageous if birds
accurately assess an individual's social position without
engaging in energetically costly fights. Status signaling
may indicate not only the past history of the displaying
animal, but also that expectations of the outcome of any
future confrontations may also be conveyed. If this hypo¬
thesis is appropriate for PM, there should be a correlation
between dominance and plumage coloration.
In PM, plumage coloration is an accurate indicator of
sex and age class (Niles, 1972). To determine if plumage
differences might serve status-signaling functions in PM, I
examined my data for possible associations between plumage
and social status. Age-related plumage characteristics
proved to be a strong determinant of status in PM adult
males. Over three years, I observed 287 displacements,

186
withdrawals, and chases. Fifty-seven martins were repre¬
sented: 42 in adult plumage and 15 in subadult plumage.
Birds in adult plumage were dominant in 247 (86%) of the
287 two-bird combinations, a result that was highly signifi¬
cant (x2=149, df=l, p<0.01).
The hypothesis is not testable with GM and CM. Age
could not be determined in GM and CM because they lack
age-dependent plumage characteristics.
Asymmetry in Aggressive Behavior
Aggressive behavior appears to be an important element
of initial territorial establishment in many birds (Kruijt et
al., 1972; Robel, 1972; Watson & Miller, 1971; Watson &
Moss, 1971). In martins, males control access to females by
defending the breeding territories essential to females.
Considerable competition for nesting sites is indicated by
high conspecific male trespassing rates and by rapid male
replacement following disappearance of resident males.
I tested my hypothesis that initiation of aggressive
encounters determines the outcome of competition for a
nesting site by comparing encounters won or lost by males.
Also, I noted whether or not a male initiated the encounter.
An analysis of initiation in relation to winning showed that
initiators of encounters were dominant in 90% of all inter¬
actions, a result that differed significantly from the null
2
hypothesis of equal dominance (x =17.78, df=l,


187
In encounters between PM adult males, 338 encounters
were recorded. The initiator won 296 (85%) of the
encounters while 42 (15%) were won by the recipient
2
(Table 26; x =190.87, df=l, p<0.01). In encounters between
adult and subadult males, subadults lost a disproportionate
2
number of interactions (Table 27; x =34.56, df=l, p<0.01),
however, there was no evidence that subadults avoided
interactions with adults. Though subadults had low
encounter initiation frequencies, they were dominant in all
nine encounters that they initiated. This indicated that
initiation was associated with dominance status independent
of plumage coloration. Thus, it appears that aggressiveness
or initiation of an encounter may be at least as strong a
predictor of social status as is plumage coloration in PM.
In the GM and CM, lacking the age-dependent plumage
classes, initiation of encounters was the only predictor of
status. While observing GM, 209 encounters were recorded.
The initiator won 185 (88%) of the encounters while
2
24 (12%) were won by the recipient (Table 26; x =124.02,
df=l, p<0.01). Only 16 encounters were observed between CM.
The initiator won all of these by chasing the opponent from
the area.
Asymmetry of Size and Weight on Dominance
The size of a male relative to his opponent can be used
as a measure of his RHP. I used the length of the flattened
wing as a measure of body size. Body weight also was

188
Table 26. Comparison of the Number of Encounters Between
Adult Purple, Gray-Breasted, and Caribbean
Martins in Which a Bird Dominated as a Result of
Whether or Not it Initiated the Encounter.
Initator Receiver
Wins Wins Totals P
Purple Martin
Gray-Breasted
Martin
296
42
338
<0.01
190.87
185
24
209
<0.01
124.02
16
0
16
<0.01
16.00
Caribbean Martin

189
Table 27. Comparison of 241 Purple Martin Encounters in
Which a Bird Dominated as a Function of Age and
of Whether it Initiated the Fight.
Adult Wins
Subadult Wins
Totals
Adult Initiator
201
31
232
Subadult Initiator
0
9
9
Totals
201
40
241
X2 = 34.56, df = 1,
p < 0.01.

190
recorded, although Searcy (1981) found weight in Red-winged
Blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) to be a less reliable index
of size because of its daily fluctuations.
I found no significant relationship between size and
rank in PM or GM (Tables 28 and 29). The data indicated
that high-ranking males (individuals winning most encoun¬
ters; see section on dominance hierarchies) were no larger
than low ranking males as measured by wing length (PM:
Spearman rs=0.10, p>0.05; GM Spearman rs=0.21, p>0.05).
Likewise, no correlation existed between body weight and
dominance. The lowest and highest ranking males were about
egual in weight (PM: Spearman rs=0.08, p>0.05; GM: Spearman
rs=0.64 , p>0.05) .
Asymmetry in Contests Due to Sex
In order to determine the effect of sex on the
incidence of agonistic encounters, interactions were grouped
as male-male, male-female, and female-female. If one
assumes that the probability of any two birds interacting
was unrelated to the sex of the bird, then a bird should
have had an equal chance of encountering a male or female,
since both sexes were present in equal numbers at the PM
multiroom houses and the GM pumphouse area. However,
Figure 22 shows that encounters were definitely nonrandom.
The highest percentage of encounters were male-male,

191
Table 28. Comparison of Dominance with Body Weight and
Body Size in Purple Martins.
Bird
Dominance
Rank
Weight
(gms)
Weight
Rank
Wing
Length
(mm)
Wing
Length
Rank
Red
1
44.5
4
141.4
5
Yellow
2
43.4
5
142.0
4
White
3
45.8
3
142.2
3
Green
4
47.0
2
143.0
1
Orange
5
42.0
7
140.9
7
Subadult Green
6
48.5
1
142.5
2
Subadult Unmarked
7
42.8
6
141.0
6
x =
44.8
x =
141.8
Spearman rg
= 0.08, p>0
.05 Spearman rg
= 0.10,
p>0.05

192
Table 29. Comparison of Dominance with Body Weight and
Body Size in Gray-Breasted Martins.
Bird
Dominance
Rank
Weight
(gms)
Weight
Rank
Wing
Length
(mm)
Wing
Length
Rank
Red
1
47.0
3
139
1
Green
2
47.5
2
135
4
Orange
3
46.5
4
136
3
Yellow
4
48.8
1
129
5
White
5
41.7
5
127
6
Pink
6
36.0
6
138
2
x =
44.5
x =
134.0
Spearman rg
ii
o
•
On
O
X)
O
.05 Spearman rg
= 0.37,
p>0.05

% Encounters % Encounters
193
A. % Two bird encounters in the
Purple Martin
N = 316
¿=6
r6
B. % Two bird encounters in the
Gray-breasted Martin
Figure 22.
Number of encounters as a function of the sex of
the bird.

194
followed by male-female interactions, and lastly female-
female interactions.
Did males concentrate their attacks on other males, or
did females make any attempt to avoid interactions with
males or other females? In both PM and GM, males avoided
aggressive interactions with females. Females retreated
into their nest holes during the few aggressive male-female
encounters. Only early in the breeding season in both
species did females interact with each other. One female
would drive an intruding female away from her nest. Males
also initiated a greater number of encounters than females.
Results indicated that females were participants in fewer
encounters than expected (PM: 45 out of 579 participants
2
were females, although 289 were expected, x =9.04, df=l,
p<0.01; GM: 21 out of 316 participants were females, though
2
158 were expected, x =11.09, df=l, p<0.01).
Discussion
It is only recently that the evolution of conventional
displays during contests has been couched in gene selection
terms (Maynard Smith, 1974). Maynard Smith's theory of
evolutionary stable strategies (ESSs) has thrown light on
the adaptiveness of territorial behavior. In particular,
fighting strategies have been delineated. He defined an ESS
as a behavioral pattern that would outcompete all other
behavioral patterns and would be stable against the invasion
of any new mutant pattern of behavior. In other words, an

195
ESS is a strategy that would give the highest reproductive
success when most members of a population adopt it.
An early ESS considered a simple gene selection model
which illustrated how conventional (Dove) and escalated
(Hawk) strategies might spread through an animal population
(Maynard Smith, 1974). An important assumption of the
Dove/Hawk model was that contestants were equal in fighting
ability and resource requirements. These were considered
symmetrical contests because they were between individuals
of equal competitive ability. As discussed earlier,
strictly symmetrical contests are uncommon in nature. There
are a number of ways in which the outcome of a contest might
be biased in favor of one contestant or the other.
RHP Asymmetries
If two individuals differ in their ability to fight or
contest a resource (RHP), the weaker one should withdraw as
soon as it assesses that its chances of winning are low.
Continued persistence or escalation is unlikely to win the
contest. In many cases, certain features of an opponent
provide information about its RHP. Contestants can use
these features to surmise how they are likely to fare before
getting involved in a fight.
The best cues to use are those such as body size and
morphological structures (e.g., horns, tusks) that correlate
in some way with RHP. Unlike arbitrary cures, such "status-
limited" cues will be resistant to cheating. Individuals

196
who do not have a genuinely high RHP will not be able to
mimic these high status cues.
The most important factors determining whether an
individual martin established and retained a territory were
plumage coloration, fighting ability, and territory owner¬
ship. The predominant strategy exhibited by martins in
disputes appeared to be that of a Hawk (Maynard Smith,
1974), though RHP differences and status as a territory
holder did lead to some variability. For example, intruders
tended to escalate contests early in the breeding season.
Hence, they exhibited the Prober-Retaliator pattern, which
is primarily offensive in nature. Maynard Smith has since
classified individuals that adjust their agonistic behavior
to specific roles as "Assessor Players" (Hammerstein, 1981).
Though RHP can influence the outcome of an encounter
without an assessment of fighting ability, those individuals
that can assess their opponents are favored by selection,
because they will not incur the costs of repeated fights.
Similarly, it would pay for individuals to advertise their
RHP. The costs of repeated encounters do not simply involve
the expense of energyuse. They also may involve injury or
death (Gosling & Petrie, 1981). Assessment need not involve
direct estimation of an opponent's fighting ability. It
could be done by an individual remembering the outcome of
previous encounters in flocks. When competitors directly
assess their opponents prior to encounters, it is possible

197
that they employ a visual cue such as plumage coloration,
which may be correlated with age and fighting ability.
In PM, plumage cues are reliable indicators of a bird's
ability to win an encounter and are used to evaluate an
opponent's likely status. Since PM may be assigned to sex
and age classes and because sex and age are good predictors
of dominance, plumage coloration may be used by opponents in
evaluating potential status.
The Hawk and Mouse patterns (Maynard Smith & Price,
1973) were observed in contests between adult and subadult
PMs. Adults often engaged in warlike behavior immediately
following RHP assessment. The Hawk appeared to be the
favored strategy of adults since it greatly shortened
interaction time and the likelihood of injury. When threat¬
ened by a Hawk, the response of a subadult was that of a
Mouse (e.g., retreat or de-escalate) since the probability
of winning was low and the potential for injury was high.
In the PM, plumage differences are used as a means for
assessing a rival's fighting experience. Cheating is not
possible, because subadults must wait a year before
attaining the dark adult plumage. This relationship between
aggressiveness and plumage coloration suggests the existence
of an evolutionary stable signaling system in which cheating
is rare. Convergence toward the dominant adult plumage may
be prevented by a net advantage to subordinates in admitting
their status. Signaling of dominance status may attract the
attention of true dominants and result in attack with

198
diminished access to the breeding sites. The ESS may well
be that it is more advantageous for a subordinate to signal
subordinance if that is one's status anyway. The interage
status-signaling system should benefit birds of both plumage
types by reducing the costs of aggression and injury. Under
most conditions, the advantages of such a system may out¬
weigh the disadvantage of subordinancy for subadult males.
Where young Harris Sparrows were dyed to resemble
dominant individuals, Rohwer (1982) found that subordinate
birds did not rise’in rank but were continually attacked by
dominants. Apparently, the birds were able to recognize
individuals by more than one cue (Shields, 1977). In the
PM, behavioral or postural cues may be used in addition to
plumage differences when determining social status. Sub¬
adults may be reacting to adults with subtle submissive
signals, which encourage adults to attack and try to win
encounters. Moreover, PM fledglings are often attacked by
adults after leaving the nest area. In this way the young
birds may become conditioned to perceive the adult plumage
signaling aggressiveness and dominance. As a result, they
either avoid adults or assume submissive behavior.
Pay-Off Asymmetries
Another factor that may influence the outcome of a
contest is the relative value of the disputed resource to
the contestant. My results suggested that individuals with
"residence" rights had an advantage in subsequent encounters

199
either because they gained some knowledge of the resource or
because of some arbitrary criterion that gives owners the
advantage.
Game theory predicts that the cost of a contest and the
potential for injury will be minimized by using RHP assess¬
ment. Thus, actual escalation to contact and potentially
damaging behavior will rarely occur. In fact, Parker (1974)
believes that warlike behavior will only occur in cases
where RHP assessment is poor or where the value of the
contested resource is extremely high.
All three species of martins frequently escalated to
potentially damaging behavior, while competing for breeding
territories. This reflects the favored use of the Hawk
strategy by adult males under circumstances discussed
earlier. Perhaps territory space is such a valuable
resource that it may be worth the intruder's effort to fight
hard in an attempt to secure a nesting site. For example, I
found later arriving PM trying to settle in multiroom houses
where adult males were numerous and opposition was fierce
from residents. One would expect that birds trying
successfully to establish themselves for the first time
would be more successful by going to less crowded multiroom
houses, especially since the resistance by established males
was strong enough to keep out most intruding birds.
However, females were attracted to large houses already
occupied by many males, and later arriving adults and
first-year males were attracted to the females. Thus, males

200
went elsewhere to breed only when forced out of a crowded
multiroom house.
The optimal strategy for females would be to mate with
established males likely to produce offspring who, in turn,
would themselves experience reproductive success. Females,
in fact, join established adult males rather than pair with
first-year birds. They will mate with first-year males only
after all the adult males are already paired. This suggests
to me that females are discriminating among males on the
basis of plumage coloration and the number of rooms in a
house each initially commands. Since PM males do contribute
to the survival of young by both feeding and guarding,
females also may be selecting adult males who already have
experience as food gatherers and protectors at the nest.
Alternatively, it is possible that a territory
increases in value to an owner as a result of time spent in
occupancy. Davies (1976) found that Pied Wagtail (Motacilla
alba) territory owners have knowledge of the best feeding
patches in a territory, and that they systematically exploit
them to allow for resource renewal. An intruder landing in
a territory has no such knowledge and feeds at a lower rate.
In martins, knowledge of local feeding areas and predators
may increase the resource value of a territory to an owner.
Such knowledge also may explain why an owner can evict an
intruder.

201
Uncorrelated Asymmetries
The third type of asymmetry involves neither RHP nor
resource value differences between opponents. It may pay
contestants to settle a dispute arbitrarily, even if there
are no potentially high costs of escalated fights.
Evidence that ownership rights could be important in
territorial encounters was obtained by Davies (1978) who
demonstrated that male speckled wood butterflies (Pararge
aegeria) use a simple rule to settle their contests for
ownership of territories: owners always retain the terri¬
tory and intruders always retreat. The outcome of a contest
between two individuals could be altered by reversing the
owner and intruder roles. An arbitrary rule of this sort
may be important in determining territory size if the first
individuals to establish territories retain large areas as a
result of priority, even after contests with new neighbors.
In this study, residents won in contests with intruders
because of an asymmetry in payoff in favor of the resident
rather than because of some arbitrary rule. Nesting terri¬
tories were of high value to martin males since they ulti¬
mately increased the probability of obtaining females.
Thus, it is unlikely that contests will be settled by
uncorrelated asymmetries for any animal where the chance of
finding an alternative territory is low. Increased energy
investment and risk will be the cost of dominance that males
must incur to gain the competitive advantage of access to
breeding territories.

DOMINANCE POSITION
Introduction
Social hierarchy is similar to territoriality in that
it provides the successful competitor with preferential
access to limited resources such as mates or food. It lacks
the space component, however, and instead involves the
establishment of a pecking order or dominance hierarchy
(Chase, 1980). In theory, the establishment of a dominance
hierarchy eliminates the energy and time investments
required in frequent disputes over limited resources.
Two major types of dominant-subordinant behavior within
bird groups have been recognized (Smith, 1976). The "lin¬
ear" type is a relationship where the despot is rarely
defeated, the second bird is dominated only by the despot,
and so on, to the most subordinate individual (Collins and
Taber, 1951; Glasé, 1973; Marler, 1955; Parsons & Baptista,
1980; Rohwer, 1984; Sabine, 1949, 1959; Schjelderup-Ebbe,
1932; Tordoff, 1954). The second type of hierarchy is
called "nonlinear" because the top bird is the individual
who wins the greatest number of encounters, but the outcome
of any fight is not always predictable (Goforth & Baskett,
1971; Masure and Allee, 1934).
202

203
During this study, PMs and GMs formed linear dominance
hierarchies away from the nesting sites and nonlinear
hierarchies at the breeding sites. This is an indication
that dominance is site-related (Tables 30-33). This meant
that the outcome of encounters was dependent on the location
at which the encounters took place. For example, a dominant
bird could be defeated by a lower ranking bird when the
encounter took place in front of the nest hole of the
subordinate. However, the proportion of encounters won by
the dominant bird was still high.
Field demonstrations of site-related dominance within
avian species are rare. Brown (1963) demonstrated the link
between territorial behavior and social dominance in a
wintering population of Steller's Jay (Cyanocitta stelleri).
He found that the dominance rank of each individual at a
seed pile was directly related to the distance of the seed
pile from the nest area of that individual. Willis (1967)
noted similar patterns of dominance in the Bicolored Antbird
(Gymnopithys bicolor).
Data Analysis
During the five years of this study, seven hierarchies
were determined for the study areas, and matrices were
constructed for each hierarchial group. Nearly 2800
interactions were documented. Tables 30 and 31 show two
such hierarchies between PM males at the Gainesville Country
Club in 1978. Tables 32 and 33 show GM males who were

Table 30. Number of Supplantings at the Nest Sites Between Purple Martins at the
Gainesville Country Club (1978). N=519
LOSER
Red
Yellow
White
Green
WINNER
Green
Orange Subadult
Unmarked
Subadult
Total
Losses
Total
Wins
Total
Encounters
%
Won
Red
5
3
13
1
0
14
36
139
175
79
Yellow
34
23
4
0
4
0
65
86
151
57
White
22
31
15
7
18
3
96
114
210
54
Green
27
13
24
0
1
6
71
62
133
47
Orange
11
17
24
6
6
2
66
38
104
37
Green
(Subadult)
2
13
32
3
21
12
83
43
126
34
Unmarked
(Subadult)
43
7
8
21
9
14
102
37
139
27
Total
Wins
139
86
114
62
38
43
37
519
519
1038
204

Table 31. Number of Purple Martin Supplantings Taking Place Other Than in Front of the
Nest
N=104
Hole, i
. e. at
Telephone Wires, Colony
Roof-Top
, Television
Antennas.
WINNER
LOSER
Red
Yellow
White
Green
Green Orange Subadult
Unmarked
Subadult
Total
Losses
Total
Wins
Total
Encounters
%
Won
Red
0
27
27
100
Yellow
3
3
22
25
88
White
7
2
1
10
23
33
69
Green
6
3
5
14
14
28
50
Orange
5
5
8
3
1
22
11
33
35
Green
(Subadult)
3
8
7
2 9
2
31
4
35
11
Unmarked
(Subadult)
3
4
3
8 2 4
24
3
27
11
Total
Wins
27
22
23
14 11 4
3
104
104
208
205

Table 32. Number of Supplantings Observed at the Nest Sites Between Gray-Breasted Martins
at Pointe-a-Pierre (1979). N=291
LOSER
Red
Green
Orange
Yellow
WINNER
White
Pink
Total
Losses
Total
Wins
Total
Encounters
%
Won
Red
9
7
11
0
0
27
83
110
75
Green
21
9
7
1
0
38
60
98
61
Orange
17
15
8
5
1
46
55
101
54
Yellow
26
16
17
16
2
77
53
130
41
White
12
14
13
18
2
59
35
94
37
Pink
7
6
9
9
13
44
5
49
10
Total
Wins
83
60
55
53
35
5
291
291
582
206

Table 33. Number of Gray-Breasted Martin Supplantings Taking Place Other Than in the
Territories of the Pumphouse Birds, i.e. at Guard Rails, Pipes, Roof-Top.
N=9 7
WINNER
Total
Total
Total
%
LOSER
Red
Green
Orange
Yellow
White
Pink
Losses
Wins
Encounters
Won
Red
0
36
36
100
Green
10
1
11
21
32
66
Orange
13
4
1
18
20
38
53
Yellow
7
5
7
4
23
10
33
30
White
5
6
2
8
1
22
5
27
19
Pink
1
6
11
1
4
23
5
28
18
Total
Wins
36
21
20
10
5
5
97
97
194
207

208
followed at one location at Pointe-a-Pierre, Trinidad during
1979. All encounters took place between only two birds at a
time, and a winner and a loser could be clearly determined
in all scored encounters.
The number of encounters used in dominance ranking does
not reflect the total number of encounters between any
two birds. The birds would first approach and threaten each
other and then separate, with neither bird showing apparent
dominance or subordinance in many encounters. This type of
encounter could not be used in dominance ranking. Only
those contests with an obvious winner and loser were
included. I recorded the identities of the winner and loser
in all displacements and fights. I used the ratio of the
number of encounters won to the number lost (won/lost ratio)
as a measure of dominance.
Purple Martin
A dominance hierarchy existed within the multiroom
house as a result of agonistic activity. Certain males were
dominant to other birds at the house and had priority of
access to any place in the house when loafing. This
hierarchy began to shift only with the establishment of
breeding territories. The behavior of each male martin at
the house then varied depending on the location at which
encounters took place.
I recorded and evaluated 519 encounters of PMs at the
breeding site. Tables 30 and 31 show the frequency of

209
supplantings observed for each of the male martins in front
of and away from the breeding sites. A nonlinear hierarchy
existed at the multiroom houses because subordinate indi¬
viduals did not always accept a submissive role in front of
their breeding room. Subordinates would threaten and attack
a higher ranking individual who tried to assert its domi¬
nance in a subordinate-'s breeding territory. A subordinate
bird revealed a consistent subordinate position only when
birds were on the roof of the multiroom house, on telephone
wires, and on the roof tops of local homes.
The least dominant birds (Orange, Subadult Green, and
Unmarked Subadult) behaved in ways that minimized the
possibility of provoking an attack from other dominant
neighbors. They avoided orienting the head toward the more
dominant bird, and frequently fluffed the plumage indicating
stay behavior. In addition, males perched outside their
nest rooms entered a room when a higher ranking male
arrived, but not when a lower ranking male arrived
2
(Table 34, x =30.36, df=l, p<0.01). Birds in adjacent rooms
at the multiroom house tended to be involved in more
encounters with each other than with those that were not
adjacent neighbors (Figure 23, PM: r=-0.89, df=4; p<0.05).
After the dominance hierarchy had been established in the
first month, the amount of aggression at the house was
markedly reduced (Figure 24).

210
Table 34. A Comparison Between Whether Lower-Ranking Males
Entered
fronted
Their Nest Holes
by a High-Ranking
More Often When
Male.
Con-
Male Enters
Nest-Hole
Male Remains
Outside
Totals
Arrival of more
dominant male
53 (41) a
13 (25)
66
Arrival of less
cominant male
6 (18)
23 (11)
29
Totals
59
36
95
Expected frequences inside parentheses
X2 = 30.36, df = 1, p < 0.01

No. of encounters No. of encounters
211
150-1
Purple Martin
125-
t
Gainesville Country Club
N s 301
100-
•
r = -.895
75-
50-
t
t
25-
t
10 18 25 33 41 49 56 64
Distance between nestholes (cm).
Distance between nestholes (m)
Figure 23. Frequency of participation in encounters as a
function of the distance between nestholes.

No. of Supplanting*
212
Feb. March April May June
Figure 24.
Number of supplantings at a Purple Martin
multiroom house during the breeding season.

213
Gray-Breasted Martin
Early in the breeding season, certain males were
dominant and had priority of access to any place in the
breeding area at the Pumphouse. This hierarchy began to
shift only with the establishment of nesting territories.
The behavior of each male at the Pumphouse then depended on
the place where the encounter occurred (Tables 32 and 33).
Like the PM, the dominance relationships of the GM males at
the nesting site were nonlinear. A relative dominance
hierarchy existed in which bird A, although dominant over B,
occasionally lost fights to male B in B's territory.
At the Pumphouse, males Red and Green consistently
occupied the highest positions. They won the most encoun¬
ters and had the fewest defeats of all individuals studied.
Red male, the first bird to establish a territory at the
Pumphouse, was particularly intolerant of intruders. He
divided his time equally between chasing and loafing at the
nest cavity. Female martins were the only individuals
exempt from a Red male's aggression within his territory.
Green male ranked second in the hierarchy. Though
Green male chased Red male (n=5) when Red was outside his
territory, Red won all supplantings with Green whether the
interaction took place inside or outside Green male's
breeding territory. As with PMs, the frequency of partici¬
pation in GM encounters was directly related to the distance
between birds (Figure 23, GM: r=-0.97, df=3, p<0.05). The

214
spatial arrangement of the nest cavities at the Pumphouse
promoted trespassing, but males consistently avoided tres¬
passing by taking circuitous flight paths instead of the
more direct route to their nesting cavity. Moreover, after
the dominance hierarchy had been established at the Pump¬
house, the amount of aggression was reduced due to nesting
activities (Figure 25).
Rank in the Hierarchy
In the previous section on territoriality, PM and GM
success in territory establishment was associated with
age-related plumage characteristics, residency, and aggres¬
siveness. Successful males initiated and won most
encounters. Tables 35 and 36 show the rank of each indi¬
vidual as determined by the relative number of successful
wins in front of and away from the breeding site. However,
this arrangement represented only an approximation. Domi¬
nance could not be determined between two individuals if
they never encountered each other or if they won nearly the
same number of encounters. Thus, I measured the relative
aggressiveness of each bird was measured by tabulating the
number of encounters won by each individual as a percentage
of the total number of encounters recorded. Tables 35 and
36 show that the degree of association between the two
measures of dominance (rank in the hierarchy and proportion
of interactions initiated and won) was high. For example,
Red males at the Gainesville Country Club colony and at the

215
Figure 25. Number of supplantings at the Gray-breasted
Martin nest area during the breeding season.

Table 35. The Degree of Association at the Nest Sites Between Two Measures of Dominance,
in the Purple Martin, Rank in the Hierarchy and Number of Interactions
Initiated and Won. Number ( ) is the Rank in the Hierarchy.
Purple Martin
Males
Rank in
Hierarchy
Encounters
Initiated
Won
Encounters
Initiated
Lost
Total
Encounters
Initiated
Red
79%
(1)
89
(1)
9
98
Yellow
59%
(2)
69
(3)
5
74
White
54%
(3)
74
(2)
10
84
Green
47%
(4)
42
(4)
6
48
Orange
37%
(5)
22
(5)
12
34
Green
Subadult
34%
(6)
3
(7)
0
3
Unmarked
Subadult
27%
(7)
6
(6)
0
6
Spearman's rs
- .928,
df = 5, p < 0.05
aRank in the hierarchy as determined by the number of wins in agonistic encounters. Win
is defined as a physical deplacement.
216

Table 36. The Degree of Association at the Nest Sites Between Two Measures of Dominance
in the Gray-Breasted Martin, Rank in the Hierarchy and Number of Interactions
Initiated and Won. Number ( ) is the Rank in the Hierarchy.
Gray-Breasted Martin
Males
Rank in
Hierarchy
Encounters
Initiated
Won
Encounters
Initiated
Lost
Total
Encounters
Initiated
Red
75%
(1)
53
(1)
2
55
Green
61%
(2)
39
(2)
3
42
Orange
54%
(3)
32
(4)
5
37
Yellow
41%
(4)
36
(3)
3
39
White
37%
(5)
25
(5)
8
33
Pink
10%
(6)
0
(6)
3
3
Spearman's rs
- .942,
df = 4, p < 0.05
aRank in the hierarchy as determined by the number of wins in agonistic encounters. Win
is defined as a physical deplacement.
217

218
Pumphouse, were aggressive in the sense that they usually
initiated encounters which they won.
Though the dominance hierarchy was established by
supplanting and threat, it was maintained primarily by
threat displays during the rest of the breeding season. I
observed no real change in the structure of the PM and GM
hierarchies after eggs had been laid.
Discussion
Social interactions in Progne Swallows were based upon
the mechanism of territoriality. Territoriality is associ¬
ated with the defence of a critical resource, which in these
birds was a nesting site. This was complicated by the fact
that the PM and GM also exhibited social interactions based
on a dominance hierarchy. If winning an encounter was due
to having a territory, then each of the birds should have
been dominant to all others in the area about their nest
site. The data showed that winning an encounter increased
in front of one's nest hole. However, winning the encounter
was not guaranteed, as dominants still challenged subordi¬
nates in the subordinates' territories. Thus, the outcome
of an encounter between individuals was site-dependent but
not absolute.
These data are valuable in demonstrating the necessity
of considering other ways to describe variations in
dominance-organized groups. In the PM and GM, territories
and dominance hierarchies can be seen to grade into each

219
other rather than to exist as absolute alternatives.
Therefore, the resultant ranking should not be called a
hierarchy. Instead, it represents a "social standing" that
has significance to the birds at their respective breeding
area. The phrase "social standing" recognizes the rough
ranking that exists among the birds without implying the
level of structure that is usually attached to "hierarchy."

CONCLUSIONS
The cornerstone of social behavior is communication
(Krebs & Davies, 1981). Highly social animals tend to
employ complex signalling systems (Dawkins & Krebs, 1984).
Not surprisingly, the three species of swallows I studied
exhibited a fairly rich repertoire of visual and vocal
signals, and they communicated almost constantly with one
another.
I believe that it is useful to divide the signals used
by martins into two categories on the basis of their meaning
to the signaler: (1) attendant signals, and (2) purposive
signals. Attendant signals are cues provided by an indi¬
vidual who is not directing its attention toward a receiver.
An example of such a signal is the appearance (e.g., plumage
variation) of a high-ranking bird to flockmates of lower
rank. The significance of plumage color variation among
individuals is that it announces a bird's social status.
This implies that the number of fights that actually take
place in agonistic interactions will be reduced, since the
antagonists can assess each other's fighting ability.
Signalling one's social status could be adaptive, especially
early in the breeding season when a high probability exists
220

221
of encountering a new and untested antagonist at the martin
nest sites. In addition, individual recognition could
reduce the frequency of fighting between birds as the
breeding season progresses, because birds involved in such
disputes remember the fighting ability of other individual
birds thereafter. Subordinate martins appeared highly
attentive to the behavior and whereabouts of dominant birds
and turned away, moved away, or adopted the Withdraw High-Up
posture in the presence of such individuals.
A similar function may be served by other forms of
territorial advertisement, as seen in the poster-coloration
of reef fishes. Brockmann (1973) and Lorenz (1962, 1966)
suggested that the brilliant colors of reef fishes in highly
conspicuous patterns advertise the presence of the individu¬
al and so facilitate mutual avoidance and spacing. Atten¬
dant cues, therefore, are the most subtle types of signals
used by martins and other animal species as an important
form of communication.
Purposive signals are displays in the classical sense:
they are postures, movements, and vocalizations that have
the specific purpose of influencing the behavior of another
individual. Individuals quickly recognize even the earliest
segments of threat or withdraw displays and respond appro¬
priately to the behavior. A subordinate martin often began
to escape within 0.5 sec of a signaler's first move, and a
dominant bird usually stopped an approach soon after the
receiver commenced to withdraw. When responded to

222
appropriately, such displays obviate the necessity for
physical attack.
Hypothetically, the martins' relative frequency of use
of each of the two types of signals in a agonistic context
at their breeding sites should be indicative of the status
of the social system and of the environment. If individuals
rely heavily upon attendant signals to communicate with one
another, they are likely to be familiar with one another and
have adequately spaced resources. An increase in the use of
purposive signals and attack, however, suggests that
resources are clumped and that subordinates are therefore
violating the individual distance of dominants.
The uneven distribution and relative scarcity of
nesting sites in all three martin species I studied promoted
competition for this resource. A martin may preserve its
individual distance in one of two ways: it may attack birds
within its distance of intolerance and attempt to drive them
away, or it may position itself beyond the distance of
intolerance of other birds. Since martins were attempting
to gain or maintain possession of a nest site in the pres¬
ence of strong competition, I found that lower-ranking birds
did not avoid birds of higher rank. Dominants then enforced
or attempted to enforce, their individual distances. Thus,
I believe it is primarily the behavior of subordinate birds
that controlled the operation of the social system in
breeding martins. Frequent use of purposive signals, such

223
as the Head Forward Thrust or Lunge displays, early in the
breeding season supported the idea that nest sites were
scarce and that birds were relatively unfamiliar with one
another.
Another important aspect of this study was that most
visual and vocal displays were used in a variety of con¬
texts. In this study, for example, the meaning of a PM
Chortle call depended on the context in which it was given.
To a male who was a potential intruder it signified a
threat; to an unmated female it meant the presence of a
potential mate.
As studies of complete display repertoires accumulate,
it is becoming evident that the concept of every display
possessing a single, precise meaning (e.g., "threat dis¬
play") is not upheld in most cases (Smith, 1977). Smith
(1969) and Moynihan (1970) found that most species have
repertoires of 20 to 40 displays. Evolutionary pressures
related to the interpretation of similar displays and
problems associated with very rare displays may restrict the
total size of display repertoires (Moynihan, 1970).
All three species of martins I studied fall in the
lower limit of this repertoire range, with about 17 displays
each. Therefore, selection may favor displays that encode
rather general messages that can be interpreted in various
ways, depending on the recipient and on contextual informa¬
tion. My findings on martins were clearly in accord with
this suggestion. Most displays were recorded in such a

224
variety of situations that it was difficult to extract
features that were common to all their usages. As a result,
the messages that I ascertained were very broad with the
most common being one related to the probability of locomo¬
tion. This message has been reported to be particularly
common in the repertoires of other animal species as well
(Caryl, 1981; Riechert, 1984; Smith, 1969).
I suggest that, because the number of displays that can
be used by an individual is limited, the extensive
dependence of display communication on contextual sources
creates very strong selection pressures to evolve the means
by which a signaler controls some of these sources. The
surest control comes when the signaler provides contextual
sources itself, through badges (plumage color variation) and
through performing its displays in combinations that act as
sources of context for each other. For instance, by
sustaining or repeating the performance of one display it
can make a continuous background of information available
against which the performance of a rarer display can be
evaluated.
Most displays in a bird's repertoire were used in
male-male interactions. This suggests that the pre-nesting
period, which is when most male-male interactions occurred,
involved the time when competing males were assessing each
other. Therefore, a major portion of the space in the
limited total repertoire has been "allotted" by natural
selection to this important behavioral task. This idea was

225
supported by the high interactions during the prenesting
period in comparison to behavioral activities after females
were incubating.
Different kinds of displays given to intruders sig¬
nalled different probabilities of attack by the territorial
resident. I found, for example, that a gradient in the
likelihood of attack existed from low-intensity Head Forward
Thrust to Lunge. Such graded signalling was important in
establishing the positions of boundaries between territorial
neighbors.
The existence of a signal gradient indicating different
probabilities of attack is surprising in light of the work
on animal conflict by Maynard Smith, Parker, and others
(Caryl, 1979; Parker, 1974; Maynard Smith, 1976; Maynard
Smith & Parker, 1976). These analyses suggest that the most
stable strategy is for contestants to conceal their attack
tendency until the last possible moment since any informa¬
tion about future behavior could be exploited by the oppo¬
nent. This assessment, however, does not apply to martin
territorial contests because of the signal gradient
exhibited. The majority of martin contests in this study
were asymmetric. Opponents were only rarely equally
matched, interms of fighting ability or in how greatly they
valued the contested nest site. I believe that the exis¬
tence of contest asymmetries tends to produce selection in
favor of individuals who are capable of estimating their own
probability of winning contests by first assessing an

226
opponent's strength relative to their own. Because fighting
is potentially dangerous, opponents are expected to use the
quality and vigor of each other's displays as the basis for
making this assessment.
In summary, the communicative effectiveness of the
generalized messages encoded by martin displays must depend
upon the class of recipient (e.g., adult male) and the
contextual information available therein to recipients.
Although detailed information on the responses of different
classes of recipients to the same display was not always
available for the birds I studied, the fact that identical
displays were given by male martins in situations as
different as territorial fights and courtship suggested that
contextual information must be critical for communication.
I noted several important contextual variables during my
study. They included spatial features such as the location
of the interaction in relation to nests, mates, or the
boundaries of the territory, and temporal features such as
preceding events or the history of interactions between the
individuals. The detailed study of the responses of
different receivers to the same display is the next critical
step in increasing our understanding of the communication
process.

LITERATURE CITED
Alcock, J. 1975. Animal behavior: An evolutionary
approach. Sunderland, Mass. Sinauer Associates.
Allen, R.W., and M.M. Nice. 1952. A study of the breeding
biology of the Purple Martin (Progne subis). Am. Midi.
Nat. 47:606-665.
Altmann, J. 1974. Observational study of behavior:
Sampling methods. Behavior 48: 227-267 .
Andersson, M. 1976. Social behavior and communication in
the Great Skua. Behavior 58:40-77.
Andersson, M. 1980. Why are there so many threat displays?
J. Theor. Biol. 86:773-781.
Andrew, R.J. 1956. The aggressive and courtship behavior
of certain emberizines. Behavior 10:255-308.
Andrew, R.J. 1963. Evolution of facial expressions.
Science 142:1034-1041.
Andrew, R.J. 1972. Information potentially available in
mammalian dialects. In: Non-verbal communication.
(ed. R.A. Hinde) . Cambridge, Cambridge University
Press.
American Ornithologists' Union Committee. 1957. Checklist
of North American birds. 5th ed. Baltimore, American
Ornithologists' Union.
American Ornithologists' Union. 1983. Checklist of North
American birds. 6th ed. Baltimore, American
Ornithologists' Union.
Armstrong, E.A. 1963. Bird display and behavior. New
York, Dover.
Baerends, G.P. 1975. An evaluation of the conflict hypoth¬
esis as an explanatory principle for the evolution of
displays. In: Function and evolution in behavior.
(ed. by G.P. Baerends, C. Beer and A. Manning).
Oxford, Clarendon Press.
227

228
Baker, R.R., and G.A. Parker. 1979. The evolution of bird
colouration. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B. 287:63-130.
Balph, M.H. 1977. Winter social behavior of dark-eyed
juncos: Communication, social organization, and
ecological implications. Amin. Behav. 25:859-884.
Barlow, G.W. 1968. Ethological units of behavior. In:
The central nervous system and fish behavior. (ed. D.
Ingle). Chicago, University of Chicago Press.
Barlow, G.W. 1973. Competition between color morphs of the
polychromatic Midas Cichlid (Cichlasoma citrinellum).
Science 179:806-807.
Barlow, G.W. 1977. Modal Action Patterns. In: How
animals communicate. (ed. T.A. Sebeok). Bloomington,
Univ. Indiana.Press.
Beebe, W., G.I. Hartley, and P.G. Howe. 1917. Tropical
wildlife in British Guiana. Zool. Contr. Tropical
Research Stat. New York, New York Zool. Soc.
Beer, C.G. 1975. Multiple functions and gull displays.
In: Function and evolution in behavior. (ed. by G.P.
Baerends, C. Beer and A. Manning). Oxford, Clarendon
Press.
Beer, C.G. 1977. What is a display? Am. Zool. 17: 155-165.
Bekoff, M. 1977. Quantitative studies of three areas of
classical ethology: Social dominance, behavioral
taxonomy, and behavioral variability. In: Quantita¬
tive methods in the study of animal behavior. (ed. B.
Hazlett). New York, Academic Press.
Belcher, C., and G.O. Smooker. 1934-1937. Birds of the
colony of Trinidad and Tobago (in 6 parts). Ibis (13)
_4: 572-595 , et seq.
Bent, A.C. 1942. Life histories of North American fly¬
catchers, larks, swallows, and their allies. U.S.
Natl. Mus. Bull., 179.
Bitterbaum, E.J., and L.F. Baptista. 1979. Geographical
variation in the songs of California House Finches
(Carpodacus mexicanus). Auk 96:462-474.
Bitterbaum, E.J., and C.R. Brown. 1981. A martin house is
not a home. Natural History Magazine 90:64-69.
Bishop, D.T., and C. Cannings. 1978. A generalized war of
attrition. J. Theor. Bio. 70:85-124.

229
Blurton-Jones, N.G. 1968. Observations and experiments on
causation of threat displays of the Great Tit (Parus
major) . Anim. Behav. Monogr. _1:75-158.
Bondesson, P., and L.I. Davis. 1975. Sound analysis within
biological acoustics. Natura Jutlandica 12:236-239.
Boughey, M., and N.S. Thompson. 1976. Species specificity
and individual variations in songs of the Brown
thrasher (Toxostoma rufum) and Catbird (Dumetella
carolinesis) . Behavior 5_7: 64-90 .
Bradley, R.A. 1980. Vocal and territorial behavior in the
White-eyed Vireo (Vireo griseus). Wilson Bull.
92:302-311.
Brockmann, H.J. 1973. The function of poster-coloration in
the Beaugregory, Eupomacentrus leucostictus
(Pomacentridae, Pisces). Z. fur Tierpsychol. 33 : 13-34.
Brockway, B.F. 1965. Stimulation of ovarian development
and egg laying by male courtship vocalization in
Budgerigars (Melopsittacus undulatus). Anim. Behav.
13 : 575-578.
Brooks, R.T., and J.B. Falls. 1975. Individual recognition
by song in White-throated Sparrows. I,II,III. Can. J.
Zool. 53:879-888, 1412-1420, 1749-1761.
Brown, C.R. 1975. Polygamy in the Purple Martin. Auk
92:602-604.
Brown, C.R. 1976. Minimum temperature for feeding by
Purple Martins. Wilson Bull. 88:672-673.
Brown, C.R. 1977. Purple Martins versus Starlings and
House Sparrows in nest site competition. Bull. Texas
Ornithol. Soc. 10:31-35.
Brown, C.R. 1978a. Reproductive success of adult and
subadult Purple Martins. Southwestern Nat. 23:597-604.
Brown, C.R. 1978b. Post-fledging behavior of Purple
Martins. Wilson Bull. 90 : 376-385.
Brown, C.R. 1978c. Juvenile Purple Martins: Field identi¬
fication and post-fledging nest defense. Bull. Texas
Ornithol. Soc. 11:25-27.
Brown, C.R. 1979a. Territoriality in the Purple Martin.
Wilson Bull. 91:583-591.

230
Brown, C.R. 1979b. Chick recognition in Purple Martins
(Passeriformes: Hirundinidae). Southwestern Nat.
24:683-685.
Brown, C.R. 1980. Sleeping behavior of Purple Martins.
Condor 82:170-175.
Brown, C.R. 1984. Light-breasted Purple Martins dominate
dark-breasted birds in a roost: Implications for
female mimicry. Auk 101:162-164.
Brown, C.R., and E.J. Bitterbaum. 1980. Implications of
juvenile harrassment in Purple Martins. Wilson Bull.
9_2 : 452-457 . " ~~
Brown, J.L. 1963. Aggressiveness, dominance, and social
organization in the Steller Jay. Condor 65:460-484.
Brown, J.L. 1964. The evolution of diversity in avian
territorial systems. Wilson Bull. 76:160-169.
Brown, J.L. 1975. The evolution of behavior. New York,
W.W. Norton.
Brown, J.L., and R.W. Hunsperger. 1963. Neurothology and
the motivation of agonistic behavior. Anim. Behav.
Ill 439-448.
Burghardt, G.M. 1970. Chemical perceptions in reptiles.
In: Advances in chemoreception. Vol. 1. (ed. by J.W.
Johnston, Jr., D.G. Moulton, and A. Turk). New York,
Appleton-Century-Crofts.
Caryl, P.G. 1979. Communication by agonistic displays:
What can games theory contribute to ethology? Behavior
68:136-169.
Caryl, P.G. 1981. Escalated fighting and the war of
nerves: Games theory and animal combat. In: Perspec¬
tives in ethology. Vol. 4. (ed. by P.P.G. Bateson and
P.H. Klopfer). New York, Plenum Press.
Caryl, P.G. 1982. Animal signals: A reply to Hinde.
Anim. Behav. 30:240-244.
Charnov, E.L., and J.R. Krebs. 1975. The evolution of
alarm calls: Altruism or manipulation? Amer. Nat.
109:107-112.
Chase, I.D. 1980. Social process and hierarchy formation
in small groups: A comparative perspective. Am.
Sociol. Rev. 45:905-924.

231
Clutton-Brock, T.H., and S.D. Albon. 1979. The roaring of
red deer and the evolution of honest advertisement.
Behavior 69:145-170.
Cullen, J.M. 1966. Reduction of ambiguity through rituali-
zation. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. B. 251:363-374.
Cullen, J.M. 1972. Some principle of animal communication.
In: Non-verbal communication. (ed. R.A. Hinde).
London, Cambridge Univ. Press.
Curio, E. 1978. The adaptive significance of avian mob¬
bing. 1. Teleonomic hypotheses and predictions. Z.
fur Tierpsychol. 48:175-183.
Daanje, A. 1950. On locomotory movements in birds and the
intention movements derived from them. Behavior
3 : 48-98 .
Dane, B., and W. van der Kloot. 1964. An analysis of the
display of the golden-eye duck (Bucephala clanqula).
Behavior 22:282-328.
Dane, B., C. Walcott, and W.H. Drury. 1959. The form and
duration of the display actions of the golden-eye
(Bucephala clangula). Behavior 14:265-281.
Darwin, C. 1872. The expression of the emotions in man and
animals. Chicago, University of Chicago Press.
Davies, N.B. 1976. Food, flocking and territorial behavior
of the pied wagtail (Motacilla alba yarrellii) in
winter. J. Anim. Ecol. 45:235-253.
Davies, N.B. 1978. Territorial defence in the speckled
wood butterfly (Pararge aegeria): The resident always
wins. Anim. Behav. 26:138-147.
Dawkins, R. 1976. The selfish gene. Oxford, Oxford
University Press.
Dawkins, R. 1982. The extended phenotype. San Francisco,
Freeman.
Dawkins, R., and M. Dawkins. 1973. Decisions and the
uncertainty of behavior. Behavior 45(1-2):83-103.
Dawkins, R., and J.R. Krebs. 1978. Animal signals:
Information or manipulation? In: Behavioural ecology,
(ed. by J.R. Krebs and N.B. Davies). Oxford,
Blackwell.

232
Dawkins, R., and J.R. Krebs. 1984. Animal signals:
Mind-reading and manipulation. In: Behavioural
ecology. (ed. by J.R. Krebs and N.B. Davies). Oxford,
Blackwell.
Deag, J.M. 1977. Aggression and submission on monkey
societies. Anim. Behav. 25:465-474.
Delius, J.D. 1973. Agonistic behavior of juvenile gulls, a
neuroethological study. Anim. Behav. 21:236-246.
Dilger, W.C. 1960. The comparative ethology of the African
parrot (genus Agapornis). Z. fur Tierpsychol.
17: 649-685.
Dingle, H. 1969. A statistical and information analysis of
aggressive communication in the mantis shrimp
(Gonodactylus bredini Manning). Anim. Behav.
¿7:561-575.
Dunham, D.W. 1966. Agonistic behavior in captive Rose¬
breasted Grosbeaks (Pheucticus ludovicianus). Behavior
27:160-173. ~ ‘ " " "
Dyrcz, A. 1984. Breeding biology of the Mangrove Swallow
Tachycineta albilinea and the Grey-breasted Martin
Proge chalybea at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. Ibis
126:59-66.
Eibl-Eibesfeldt, I. 1975. Ethology: The biology of
behavior, 2nd ed. New York, Holt, Rinehart and Winston.
Eisenmann, E., and F. Haverschmidt. 1970. Northward
migration to Surinam of South American martins
(Progne). Condor 72:368-369♦
Emlen, S.T. 1971. The role of song in individual recogni¬
tion in the Indigo Bunting. Zeit. fur Tierpsychol.
2_8: 241-246.
Emlen, S.T. 1972. An experimental analysis of the parame¬
ters of bird song eliciting species recognition.
Behavior 41:130-171.
Ewald, P.W., and S. Rohwer. 1980. Age, coloration and
dominance in nonbreeding hummingbirds: A test of the
asymmetry hypothesis. Behav. Ecol. Socibiol.
7:273-279.
Ewert, J.P. 1985. Concepts in vertebrate neuroethology.
Behavior 33:1-29.
ffrench, R. 1976. A guide to the birds of Trinidad and
Tobago. Valley Forge, Pennsylvania, Harrowood Books.

233
Ficken, R.W., M.S. Ficken, and J.P. Hailman. 1978. Differ¬
ential aggression in genetically different morphs of
the White-throated Sparrow (Zonotrichia albicollis).
Z. Tierpsychol. .£6:43-57. -
Ficken, R.W., A. van Tienhoven, M.S. Ficken, and F.C.
Sibley. 1960. Effect of visual and vocal stimuli on
breeding in the Budgerigar (Melopsittacus undulatus).
Anim. Behav. _8 : 104-106.
Finlay, J.C. 1971. Breeding biology of Purple Martins at
the northern limit of their range. Wilson Bull.
83:255-269.
Finlay, J.C. 1976. Some effects of weather on Purple
Martin activity. Auk 93:231-244.
Gaunt, A.S. 1959_. Behavior in the Purple Martin. Kansas
Ornithol. Soc. Bull. 10:14-16.
Geist, V. 1971. Mountain sheep. Chicago, University of
Chicago Press.
Glasé, J.C. 1973. Ecology of social organization in the
Black-capped Chickadee. Living Bird 12:235-237.
Goforth, W.R., and T.S. Baskett. 1971. Social organization
of penned Mourning Doves. Auk 88:528-542.
Gosling, L.M., and M. Petrie. 1981. The economics of
social organization. In: Physiological ecology: An
evolutionary approach to resource use. (ed. by C.R.
Townsend and P. Calow). Oxford, Blackwell.
Greenberg, N. 1977. A neuroethological study of display
behavior in the lizard, Anolis carolinensis (Reptilia,
Lacertilia, Iguanidae). Am. Zool. 17:191-201.
Greenberg, N. 1983. Central and autonomic aspects of
aggression and dominance in reptiles. In: Advances in
vertebrate neuroethology (ed. by J.P. Ewert, R.R.
Capranica and D.J. Ingle). New York, Plenum Press.
Greenquist, E.A. 1982. Displays, vocalizations and breed¬
ing biology of the Great Grebe (Podiceps major). Condor
8^:370-380.
Hafner, J.C., and M.S. Hafner. 1977. The cryptic occiptal
spot in the Accipitridae (Falconiformes). Auk
94: 293-303.
Hailman, J.P. 1975. Analysis of aggression in White-
throated sparrows types of different proportions.
Bird-Banding 46:236-240.

234
Hailman, J.P. 1977. Optical signals: Animal communication
and light. Bloomington, Indiana Univ. Press.
Hammerstein, P. 1981. The role of asymmetries in animal
contests. Anim, Behav. 29:193-205.
Hand, L.H. 1981. A comparison of vocalizations of Western
Gulls (Larus occidentalis occidentalis and L^_ 0.
Livens) . Condor £13: 289-301 .
Hartshorne, C. 1956. The monotony threshold in singing
birds. Auk 73:176-192.
Hartshorne, C. 1973. Born to sing. Bloomington, INdiana
Univ. Press.
Hazlett, B.A. 1972. Ritualization in marine Crustacea.
In: Behavior of marine animals. (ed. by H.E. Winn and
B.L. Olla). New York. Plenum Press.
Hellmayr, C.E. 1906. On the birds of the island of
Trinidad. Novit. Zool. 13:1-60.
Hellmayr, C.E. 1935. Catalogue of birds of the Americas.
Publ. Field Mus. Nat. Hist., Zool. Ser.
13(8):vi+54lpp.
Hinde, R.A. 1970. Animal behavior. (2nd ed.). New York,
McGraw-Hill Book Co., Inc.
Hinde, R.A. 1981. Animal signals: Ethological and games-
theory approaches are not incompatible. Anim. Behav.
29:535-542.
Hinde, R.A., and N. Tinbergen. 1958. The comparative study
of species-specific behavior. In: Behavior and
evolution, (ed. by A. Roe and G.G. Simpson). New
Haven, Yale Univ. Press.
Hines, W.G.S. 1977. Competition with an evolutionary
stable strategy. J. Theor. Biol. 67:141-153.
Hjorth, I. 1976. The divalent origin and adaptive radia¬
tion of grouse songs. Ornis Scand. .
Hopkins, C.D., M. Rossetto and A. Lutjen. 1974. A continu¬
ous sound spectrum analyzer for animal sounds. Z.
Tierpsychol. Beih. 34:313-320.
Huxley, J.S. 1914. The courtship-habits of the Great
Crested Grebe (Podiceps cristatus); with and addition
to the theory of sexual selection. Proc. Zool. Soc.
London 1914:491-562.

235
Huxley, J.S. 1923. Courtship activities in the red-
throated diver (Colymbus stellatus Pontopp.); together
with a discussion on the evolution of courtship in
birds. J. Linn. Soc. 35:253-293.
Huxley, J.S. 1966. Ritualization of behavior in animals
and man. Trans. Royal Soc, London 251:247-526.
Ishii, S. 1984. Endocrine control of aggressive behavior
in male and female Japanese quail. In: Animal
behavior: Neurophysiological and ethological
approaches (ed. by K. Aoki, S. Ishii and H. Morita).
Tokyo, Japan Scientific Societies Press.
Jackson, J.A., and J. Tate, Jr. 1974. An analysis of nest
box use by Purple Martins, House Sparrows and Starlings
in eastern North America. Wilson Bull. 86:435-449.
Johnston, R.G. 1958. Function of cryptic white in the
White-necked Raven. Auk 75:350-351.
Johnston, R.F., and J.W. Hardy. 1962. Behavior of the
Purple Martin. Wilson Bull. 74:243-262.
Kaufmann, J.H., and Arleen B. Kaufmann. 1971. Social
organization of whiptail wallabies (Macropus parri).
Bull, of the Ecol. Soc. of Amer. 52(4):54-55♦
Klopfer, P.H., and J.J. Hatch. 1968. Experimental consid¬
erations. In: Animal communication. (ed. T.A.
Seboek). Bloomington, Indiana Univ. Press.
Knudsen, E.I. 1980. Sound localizations in birds. In:
Comparative studies of hearing in vertebrates.
(Popper, A.N., and P.R. Fay, eds.). New York,
Springer-Verlag.
Konishi, M. 1973. Locatable and nonlocatable acoustic
signals for birds. Am. Nat. 107:775-785.
Krebs, J.R., and N.B. Davies. 1981. An introduction to
behaviorual ecology. Oxford, Blackwell.
Kroodsma, D.E. 1974. Song learning, dialects, and dis¬
persal in the Bewick's Wren. Zeit. fur Tierpsychol.
35:352-380.
Kroodsma, D.E., and J. Verner. 1979. Complex singing
behavior among Cistothorus wrens. Auk 95:703-716.
Kruijt, J.P., G.J. de Vos and I. Bossema. 1972. The arena
system of black grouse. Proc. XV Inti. Ornith. Congr.
Leiden, E.J. Brill.

236
Lehrman, D.S. 1953. A critique of Konrad Lorenz's theory
of instinctive behavior. Quarterly Review of Biol.
28:337-363.
Lehrman, D.S. 1970. Semantic and conceptual issues in the
nature-nuture problem. In: Development and evolution
of behavior (ed. by L.K. Aronson, E. Tobach, D.S.
Lehrman and J.S. Rosenblatt). San Francisco, W.H.
Freeman.
Lorenz, K. 1941. Vergleichende Bewegungsstudien an
Anatinen. J. Ornithol. 89. Erganzungsband 2: 194-293.
Lorenz, K. 1950. The comparative method of studying innate
behavior patterns. Symposia of the Society for Experi¬
mental Biology 4_: 221-268.
Lorenz, K. 1952. King Solomon's ring. New York, Thomas Y.
Crowell Co.
Lorenz, K. 1962. The function of colour in coral reef
fishes. Proc. Roy. Inst. Gt. Brit. 39:282-296.
Lorenz, K. 1965. Evolution and modification of behavior.
Chicago, Univ. of Chicago Press.
Lorenz, K. 1966. On aggression. London, Methuen.
Lott, D., S.D. Scholz, and D.S. Lehrman. 1967. Exterocep¬
tive stimulation of the reproductive system of the
female ring dove (Streptopelia risoria) by the mate and
by the colony milieu. Anim. Behav. 15:433-437.
Marler, P. 1955a. Studies of fighting in Chaffinches. (2)
The effect on dominance relations of disguising females
as males. Br. J. Anim. Behav. 3^:137-146.
Marler, P. 1955b. Characteristics of some animal calls.
Nature 176:6-8.
Marler, P. 1956. Studies of fighting in Chaffinches. (3)
Proximity as a cause of aggression. Br. J. Anim.
Behav. 4q 23-30.
Marler, P. 1961. The logical analysis of animal communica¬
tion. J. Theor. Biol. _7;295-317.
Marler, P. 1967. The structure of animal communication
sounds. In: Recognition of complex acoustical
signals. (Bullock, T.H., ed.). Dahlem Conf. Life Sci.
Res. Rep. 5:17-35.

237
Marler, P. 1969. Tonal qualities of bird sounds, p. 5-18.
In Bird vocalizations. (Hinde, P.A. ed.), Cambridge,
Cambridge Univ. Press.
Marler, P. and M. Tamura. 1962. Song "dialects" in three
populations of White-crowned Sparrows. Condor
6_4 : 3 6 8-37 7.
Marler, P., and S. Peters. 1977. Selective vocal learning
in a sparrow. Science 98:519-521.
Marten, K., and P. Marler. 1977. Sound transmission and
its significance for animal vocalization. I. Tempera¬
ture habitats. Behav. Ecol. Sociobiol. 2^: 271-290.
Marten, K., D. Quine, and P. Marler. 1977. Sound trans¬
mission and its significance for animal vocalization.
II. Tropical forest habitats. Behav. Ecol. Sociobiol.
2 : 291-302 . “ ” ~
Masure, R.H., and W.C. Allee. 1934. The social order in
flocks of the common chicken and the pigeon. Auk
51:306-327.
Maynard Smith, J. 1974. The theory of games and the
evolution of animal conflicts. J. Theor. Biol.
47:209-222.
Maynard Smith, J. 1976. Evolution and the theory of games.
Am. Sci. 64:41-45.
Maynard Smith, J. 1979.
behavior. Proc. R.
Game theory and the evolution of
Soc. Lond. B. 205:475-488.
Maynard Smith, J. 1982. Evolution and the theory of games.
Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
Maynard Smith, J., and G.A. Parker. 1976. The logic of
asymmetric contests. Anim. Behav. 24:159-175.
Maynard Smith, J., and G.R. Price. 1973. The logic of
animal conflict. Nature, Lond. 246:15-18.
Mayr, R., and L.L. Short. 1970. Species taxa of North
America birds (a contribution to comparative systemat-
ics). Cambridge, Publications of the Nuttall Ornitho¬
logical Club, No. 9.
McBride, G., I.P. Parer and F. Foenander. 1969. The social
organization and behavior of the feral domestic fowl.
Anim. Behav. Mono. 2:127-181.

238
McCleery, R.H. 1978. Optimal behavioural sequences and
decision making. In: Behavioural ecology: an evolu¬
tionary approach. (ed. by J.R. Krebs and N.B. Davies).
Oxford, Blackwell.
McFarland, D.J. 1971. Feedback mechanisms in animal
behavior. London, Academic Press.
McFarland, D.J. 1977. Decision making in animals. Nature
269:15-21.
McFarland, D.J., and A.I. Houston. 1981. Quantitative
ethology. The state space approach. London, Pitman.
McKinney, F. 1965. The comfort movements of Anatidae.
Behaviour 25:120-220.
McKinney, F. 1975.. The evolution of duck displays. In:
Function and evolution in behavior. (ed. by G.
Baerends, C. Beer, and A. Manning). Oxford,
Clarendon Press.
Miller, A.H., H. Friedmann, L. Griscom and R.T. Moore.
1957. Distributional check-list of the birds of
Mexico, Part 2. Pacific Coast Avifauna No. 33.
Miller, E.H. 1983. The structure of aerial displays in
three species of Calidridinae (Scolopaeidae). Auk
100:440-451.
Morris, D. 1956. The feather postures of birds and the
problem of the origin of social signals. Behaviour
9:75-114.
Morris, D. 1957. "Typical intensity" and its relationship
to the problem of ritualization. Behaviour 11:1-12.
Morris, D. 1966. The rigidification of behaviour. Phil.
Tr. Royal Soc. Lond. 251:327-330.
Morse, D. 1970. Territorial and courtship songs of birds.
Nature 266:659-661.
Morton, E.S. 1975. Ecological sources of selection on
avian sounds. Am. Nat. 109:17-34.
Morton, E.S. 1977. On the occurrence and significance of
motivation and structural rules in some bird and mamma
species. Am. Nat. Ill:855-869.
Moynihan, M. 1955. Some aspects of reproductive behavior
in the Black-headed Gull (Larus r. ridibundus L.) and
related species. Behaviour Suppl. _4:1-201.

239
Moynihan, M. 1970. Control, suppression, decay, disappear¬
ance and replacement of displays. J. Theor. Biol.
29:85-112.
Niles, D.M. 1972. Determining age and sex of Purple
Martins. Bird-Banding 43:137-138.
Noble, G.K. 1939. Dominance in the social life of birds.
Auk 56:263-273.
Nuechterlein, G.L., and R.W. Storer. 1982. The pair
formation displays of the Western Grebe. Condor
84:350-369. “
Nuechterlein, G.L., and R.W. Storer. 1985. Aggressive
behavior and interspecific killing by flying Streamer-
Ducks in Argentina. Condor 87:87-91.
Nugent, D.P. 1979. A behavioral analysis of communication
among Franklin's Spruce Grouse during the breeding
season. M.Sc. thesis. Edmonton, Univ. of Alberta.
Parker, G.A. 1974. Assessment strategy and the evolution
of fighting behaviour. J. Theor. Biol. 47:223-243.
Parker, G.A. 1978. Searching for mates. In: Behavioral
ecology: An evolutionary approach, (ed. by J.R. Krebs
and N.B. Davies). Oxford, Blackwell.
Parker, G.A., and D.I. Rubenstein. 1981. Role assessment,
reserve strategy, and acquisition of information in
asymmetric animal conflicts. Anim. Behav. 29:221-240.
Parsons, J., and L.F. Baptista. 1980. Crown color and
dominance in the White-crowned Sparrow. Auk
9_7: 807-815.
Peters, J.L. 1960. Check-list of birds of the world.
Vol. 9. Cambridge, Harvard Univ. Press.
Phillips, A.R. 1959. La acrecencia de errores acerca de la
ornithologica de Mexico, con notas sobre Myiarchus.
Anales del Instituto de Biología 30:349-368.
Post, W., and J.S. Greenlaw. 1975. Seaside Sparrow dis¬
plays: Their function in social organization and
habitat. Auk 92:461-492.
Richards, D.G. 1981. Alerting and message components in
songs of Rufous-sided Towhees. Behaviour 76:223-249.
Richmond, S.M. 1953. The attraction of Purple Martins to
an urban location in Western Oregon. Condor
55:225-249.

240
Ridgeway, R. 1904. The birds of North and Middle America.
Bull. U.S. Natl. Mus. No. 50, Pt. 3.
Riechert, S. 1984. Games spiders play. Ill: Cues under¬
lying context-associated changes in agonistic behavior.
Anim. Behav. 32:1-15.
Robbins, M.B. 1983. The Display repertoire of the Band¬
tailed manakin (Pipra fasciicauda). Wilson Bull.
95:321-342.
Robel, R.J. 1972. Possible role of behavior in regulating
tetraonid populations. Proc. Int. Ornithol. Congr.
15:121-133.
Rohwer, S. 1975. The social significance of avian winter
plumage variability. Evolution 29:593-610.
Rohwer, S. 1977. Status signalling in Harris Sparrows:
Some experiments in deception. Behaviour 61:107-129.
Rohwer, S. 1982. The evolution of reliable and unreliable
badges of fighting ability. Am. Zool. 22:531-546.
Rohwer, S., and D.M. Niles. 1977. An historical analysis
of spring arrival times in Purple Martins: A test of
two hypotheses. Bird Banding 48162-167.
Rohwer, S., and D.M. Niles. 1979. The subadult plumage of
male Purple Martins: Variability, female mimicry, and
recent evolution. Z. Tierpsychol. 51:282-300.
Rubenstein, D.I. 1982. Risk, uncertainty, and evolutionary
strategies. In: Current problems in sociobiology (ed.
by King's College Sociobiology Group). Cambridge,
Cambridge Univ. Press.
Russell, W.M.S., A.P. Mead, and J.S. Hayes. 1954. A basis
for the quantitative study of the structure of
behaviour. Behaviour (5 : 153-205.
Sabine, W.S. 1949. Dominance in winter flocks of juncos
and tree sparrows. Physiol. Zool. 22:68-8 5.
Sabine, W.S. 1955. The winter society of the Oregon Junco:
The flock. Condor 57:88-111.
Sabine, W.S. 1956. Integrating mechanisms of winter flocks
of juncos. Condor 58:338-341.
Sabine, W.S. 1959. The winter society of the Oregon junco:
Intolerance, dominance, and the pecking order. Condor
61:110-135.

241
Sade, D.S., K. Cushing, J. Dunaif, A. Figueroa, J.R. Kaplan,
D. Lauer, C. Rhodes, and J. Schneider. 1976. Popu¬
lation dynamics in relation to social structure on Cayo
Santiago. Ybk. Phys. Anthropol. 20;235-262.
Searcy, W.A. 1981. Sexual selection and aggressiveness in
male Red-winged Blackbirds. Animal Behav. 29:958-960.
Schjelderup-Ebbe, T. 1935. Social behavior of birds. In:
A handbook for social psychology. (ed. C. Muchison).
Worchester, Clark Univ. Press.
Schleidt, W. 1974. How "fixed" is the fixed action pat¬
tern? Zeit. Tierpsychol. 36:184-211.
Shalter, M.D. 1978. Localization of passerine seeet and
mobbing calls of Goshawks and Pygmy Owls. Z. fur
Tierpsychol. 46:260-278.
Shields, W.M. 1977. The social significance of avian
winter plumage variability: A comment. Evolution
31:905-907.
Shiovitz, K.A. 1975. The process of species-specific song
recognition by the Indigo Bunting (Passerina cyanea)
and its relationship to the organization of avian
acoustical behavior. Behaviour 55:128-179.
Sibly, R.M., and R.H. McCleery. 1985. Optimal decision
rules for Herring Gulls. Animal Behav. 33:449-465.
Sibly, R.M., and D.J. McFarland. 1976. The fitness of
behaviour sequences. Am. Nat. 110:601-617.
Siegel, S. 1956. Nonparametric statistics for the behav¬
ioral sciences. New York, McGraw-Hill.
Smith, D.G. 1976. An experimental analysis of the function
of Red-winged Blackbird song. Behaviour 56:136-156.
Smith, D.G., F.A. Reid, and C.B. Breen. 1980. Stereotypy
of some parameters of Red-winged Blackbird song.
Condor 82:259-266.
Smith, W.J. 1965. Messages, meaning, and context of
ethology. Am. Nat. 99:405-409.
Smith, W.J. 1968. Message-meaning analysis. In: Animal
Communication. (ed. T.A. Sebeok). Bloomington,
Indiana Univ. Press.
Smith, W.J. 1969. Messages of vertebrate communication.
Science 165:145-150.

242
Smith, W.J. 1977. The behavior of communicating.
Cambridge, Harvard Univ. Press.
Stamps, J.A., and G.W. Barlow. 1973. Variation and
stereotypy in the displays of Anolis geneus (Saurin:
Iguanidae). Behaviour 47:67-94.
Stokes, A.W. 1962a. Agonistic behavior among Blue Tits at
a winter feeding station. Behaviour 19:118-138.
Stokes, A.W. 1962b. The comparative ethology of great,
blue, marsh, and coal tits at a winter feeding station.
Behaviour 19:208-218.
Stout, J.F. 1975. Aggressive communication by Larus
glaucescens 3. Descriptions of the displays related to
territorial protection. Behaviour 55:181-208.
Struhsaker, T.T. 1967. Social structure among vervet
monkeys (Ceropithecus aethiops). Behaviour 29:83-121.
Tordoff, H.B. 1954. Social organization in a flock of
captive, nonbreeding Red Crossbills. Condor
56:346-358.
Tinbergen, N. 1952. "Derived" activities? their causation,
biological significance, origin, and emancipation
during evolution. Quart. Rev. Biol. 27:1-32.
Tinbergen, N. 1959. Comparative studies on the behaviour
of gulls (Laridae): A progress report. Behaviour
15:1-70.
Tinbergen, N. 1972. The animal in its world. (2 vols.).
Cambridge, Harvard Univ. Press.
Van Rhijn, J.G. 1980. Communication by agonistic displays:
A discussion. Behaviour 74 : 284-293 .
Watson, A., and G.R. Miller. 1971. Territory size and
aggression in a fluctuating red grouse population. J.
Anim. Ecol. 40:367-383.
Watson, A., and R. Moss. 1970. Dominance, spacing behavior
and aggression in relation to population limitation in
vertebrates. In: Animal populations in relation to
their food resources. (ed. A. Watson). Oxford,
Blackwell.
Wickler, W. 1969. Socio-sexual signals and their intra¬
specific imitation among primates. In: Primate
ethology: Essays on the socio-sexual behavior of apes
and monkeys. (ed. D. Morris). Garden City, New York,
Anchor Books.

243
Wiley, R.H. 1973. The strut display of male Sage Grouse:
A "fixed" action pattern, Behaviour 47:129-152.
Wiley, R.H. 1983. The evolution of communication: Infor¬
mation and manipulation. In: Communication (Animal
behaviour, Vol. 2). (ed. by T.R. Halliday and P.J.B.
Slater). Oxford, Blackwell.
Wiley, R.H., and D.G. Richards. 1978. Physical constraints
on acoustic communication in the atmosphere: Implica¬
tions for the evolution of animal vocalizations.
Behav. Ecol. and Socio. 3g 69-94 .
Willis, E.O. 1967. The behavior of Bicolored Antbirds.
University of California Publications in Zoology
79 : 1-127.
Willis, E.O. 1972_. The behavior of Plain-brown Wood-
creepers (Dendrocincla fuliginosa). Wilson Bull.
84:377-420.
Wilson, E.O. 1971. The insect societies. Cambridge,
Belknap Press.
Wilson, E.O. 1975. Sociobiology. Cambridge, Harvard Univ.
Press.
Wittenberger, J.F. 1981. Animal social behavior. Boston,
Duxbury Press.
Zahavi, A. 1979. Ritualization and the evolution of
movement signals. Behaviour 72:77-81.
Zahavi, A. 1982. The pattern of vocal signals and the
information they convey. Behaviour 80:1-8.
Zimmer, J.T. 1955. Studies of Peruvian Birds. New York,
Amer. Mus. Novit. no. 1723.

BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH
Erik Joshua Bitterbaum was born on December 31, 1952,
in New York, New York. After attending schools on
three continents, he graduated from Kalani High School in
Honolulu, Hawaii, in June 1971. He commenced his study of
biology at Occidental College in Los Angeles, California, in
September 1971. With the exception of his junior year spent
at the University of Sussex in Sussex, England, Mr. Bitter¬
baum remained at Occidental College for the next five years.
He received the Bachelor of Arts degree cum laude in June
1975, and the Master of Arts degree in August 1976. He
began his doctoral studies in zoology at the University of
Florida in September 1976. His Doctor of Philosophy degree
will be conferred in August 1986. Mr. Bitterbaum plans to
continue his teaching and research endeavors in the field of
behavioral ecology.
244

I certify that I have read this study and that in my
opinion it conforms to acceptable standards of scholarly
presentation and is fully adequate, in scope and quality, as
a dissertation for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy.
John William Hardy, Chairman
Professor of Zoology
I certify that I have read this study and that in my
opinion it conforms to acceptable standards of scholarly
presentation and is fully adequate, in scope and quality, as
a dissertation for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy.
H. Jane Brockmann
Associate Professor of Zoology
I certify that I have read this study and that in my
opinion it conforms to acceptable standards of scholarly
presentation and is fully adequate, in scope and quality, as
a dissertation for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy.
lL
/ /Ü
r
1
Collopj^ ¿j'
Professor of Forest
and Conservation
Michael W.
Assistant
Resources

I certify that I have read this study and that in my
opinion it conforms to acceptable standards of scholarly
presentation and is fully adequate, in scope and quality, as
a dissertation for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy.
, <
I 1
Thomas C. Emme1
Professor of Zoology
I certify that I have read this study and that in my
opinion it conforms to acceptable standards of scholarly
presentation and is fully adequate, in scope and quality, as
a dissertation for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy.
This dissertation was submitted to the Graduate Faculty of
the Department of Zoology in the College of Liberal Arts and
Sciences and to the Graduate School and was accepted as
partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of
Doctor of Philosophy.
August, 1986
Dean, Graduate School

UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
3 1262 08553 4617