TRENDS IN THE FLORIDA POPULATION
by
Daniel E. Alleger
Associate Agricultural Economist
Florida Agricultural Experiment Station


Read before the Twelth Annual Meeting of the Florida Academy
of Sciences in conjunction with the Southeastern Section of the
Society of American Bacteriologists, Florida State University,
Tallahassee, Florida, November 21, 1947.


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TRENDS IN THE FLORIDA POPULATION


by

Daniel E. Alleger
Associate Agricultural Economist
Florida Agricultural Experiment Station




Introduction


The United States has come of age and is rapidly reaching a period of

maturity. Some population authorities predict the United States will reach its
1/
maximum growth by 1980 If this is true there will be a leveling off in num-

bers and subsequent actual decline unless our present immigration policies are

modified or reversed, or other unpredictable circumstances arise.

Fertility ratios calculated for most American cities indicate population

replacement rates are too low for continued growth, and in many cases are not

sufficient for mere maintenance of numbers. Were it not for rural-urban mi-

gration the populations of many cities would actually decline.

In a transition from an increasing to a stationary or decreasing popu-

lation, such as is now taking place in the United States, three of the pertinent

transitory changes deserve critical attention. Those considered are, first, a

slowing down in the rate of natural increase, or the excess of births over

deaths; second, an increase in the proportions of the population in their

productive years of life, the ages of 15 to 65; and third, an increase in the

number of persons over are 65.

The redistribution in age groups presents a whole new set of problems in

cultural and economic relationships. Inasmuch as age changes in the Florida

population are following the general pattern of age redistribution in the

United States, state and city officials and social planners must cope with the

1/ The Problems of a Changing Population. National Resources Committee,
Washington, D. C., 1938, p. 7.




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economic and cultural measures required by expanding populations at a time when

upward changes in the age distribution of the population will force the problems

of the older groups sharply into focus. It is a dual responsibility faced only

in a few states on a large scale at the present time.


Contemporary Changes in the Population of Florida

It is not possible, due to limitations of time, to review many of the

problems incident to those circumstances just recited. Nevertheless, some

significant observations on recent population changes in Florida can be compre-

hended best by simple summarization These points are:

1. From 1830 to 1945 the white race increased from 18,385 to 1,695,301
and the Negro race from 16,345 to '554,760.

2. If the 1915-45 rate of population growth in Florida is maintained
until 1976 the population will then number about 5,500,000 or double the 1945
enumeration.

3. Every state in the United States has contributed to the native white
population of Florida. Negro immigrants came largely from 8 nearby Southern
states and New York state.

4. The recorded out-county migrations of the Negroes from many Florida
counties between 1935 and 1945 were, in general, at proportionally higher rates
then for recorded out-county migrations of white persons for the same period.

5. In 1850 Florida was wholly rural but in 1945 about 64 percent of the
population lived in incorporated centers.

6. Birth retes were usually higher in those counties from which the
population out-movements were greatest between 1935 and 1945, and income tax
returns per 1000 total population fewesti- .

7. The age composition of the Florida population as a whole, and for
both the white and Negro races separately, has changed during the past few
decades. Changes have included an increase in the proportions of aged persons,
an increase in the proportions of persons in the economically productive groups,

1/ The Changing Population of Florida. D. E. Alleger, Fla, Agri. Exp. Sta.,
Gainesville, Florida, November, 1946. Based on U. S. Census data and the Florida
State Census of 1945.

2/ Based on 1941 birth rates and 1942 income tax returns per 1000 total population.







and a decrease in the proportions of the number of children. Changes in the
white race toward increased proportions of persons in the older ages usually
preceded similar changes in the Negro race.

8. The fertility ratio for Florida in 1940 was not sufficient for
population replacement.


Population Concentration, Migration, and Redistribution

In 1945 over 66 percent of the Florida population lived in the 11 counties

with the 12 largest cities. Also nearly half of the population was centered in

counties facing the Atlantic Ocean. Populations in excess of 10,000 were re-

ported for 23 cities. Approximately 810,000 people were rpore 4as rural re-

sidents in 1945, which while an increase of over 200,000 over 1935, was yet

proportionally less than in 1935. The trend in drop in rural residents has been
1/
in process for decades, dropping from 100 percent rural in 1850 to 45 percent

in 1940 and 36 percent in 1945. Also, in 1945 less than 5,000 persons were

enumerated in counties, 6 of which reported net losses from 1940 to 1945.

Moreover, a total of 29 counties experienced losses between 1940 and 1945.

Every state in the Union has contributed to the native white population

of Florida. State census data indicate white immigrants came largely from the

Mississippi Valley and from states to the east of the VPlley. In 1945 over

300,000 Georgia born persons resided in Florida, of whom 128,790 were Negroes.

Georgia born Florida residents increased by over 71,000 between 1935 and 1945,

and Alabama born residents by 40,675. The net contribution by Alabama at the

time of the 1945 census exceeded 124,000 of whom 28,096 were Negroes. Other

states which had contributed over 20,000 white persons to the Florida population

were New York, Pennsylvenia, Ohio, Illinois, Tennessee, North Carolina, Indiana,

South Carolina, Michigan, Massachusetts, Kentucky and New Jersey in the order named

1/ U. S. Census Data.

2/ Florida State Census of 1945. This is about 6 percent lower than the U. S.
Census classification.








The white immigrants from the states just referred to, excluding Alabama

and Georgia, settled chiefly in a limited number of counties. All 12 states

provided at least 1000 immigrants for Dade, Duval, Hillsborough and Pinellas

Counties, 11 states to Orange and Palm Beach Counties, 9 to Polk, 6 to Broward,

4 to Volusia and New York state alone contributed over 1000 to Escambia County.

All other counties of Florida had received less than 1000 immigrants each from

any one state contributing more than 20,000 residents to Florida, except from

Georgia and Alabama. It appears thapl10 counties are receiving the largest

number of immigrants from all states north of Alabama and Georgia and east of

the Mississippi River.

Immigrant Negroes while scattered throughout the state have located most

heavily in the same counties just listed with the additions of Seminole, Gadsden

and Bay. Except for 1,002 Negroes born in New York and living in Florida in

1945, the majority of the Negro immigrants came from 8 Southern states: Virginia,

Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi and

Louisiana.

During periods of the most active immigrations the intra-state movements

in Florida were considerable and patterns definitely discernable. From some

counties the exodus of the Negroes was proportionally more rapid than for the

whites. Jefferson County is an example. In 1890 approximately 3,500 whites

were enumerated and about 12,200 Negroes, and in 1910, when the county population

was near its peak, nearly 4,100 whites and 13,100 Negroes were reported. How-

ever, in 1945 the white population remained at about 4,000 but the Negro popu-

lation had dropped to 7,100. From 1910 to 1945 the white population had declined

only 3 percent but the Negro over 46 percent. Conversely, Dade County is an

example of growth. In 1910 about 4,200 Negroos were reported in the county, and








in 1945 nearly 54,000. While only 25,300 gave Florida as their state of birth

this number appears to be greater than natural increase alone had established.

To conclude that Negroes from many Northern and Northwest Florida counties are

moving to urban centers and to counties in Southern Florida seems justified
1/
from data available The Negro quest appears to be a search for economic

opportunity, since those counties with relatively high per capital incomes are

the most favored.

Fertility Relationships

Natural increase was less important as a source of population supply in

Florida in the latter part of the 1915-45 period than immigration. The 1945

census established that 55 percent of the Florida white population and 39 percent

of the Negro population were born outside of Florida.

Evidence pointing to a decline in the rate of natural increase is con-

clusive. Between 1880 and 1940 the percent of white males in Florida ranging

in age from birth to 14 years dropped by 17.6 percent, and for white females by

18.5 percent. For the Negro race respective drops were 18.3 and 18.1 percent.

In 1940 the fertility ratio for Florida was less than necessary to maintain the

population, Table 1. If this condition is not reversed, large proportions of

Florida's future citizens must come from other states if the state is to continue

its growth.

In fertility changes the Negro is following the trend of the white race.

For at least a hundred years, he has adhered to institutions that were typically

Anglo-Saxon. In fertility and age changes there were marked resemblances. In

1940 differences in fertility ratios were more distinct between rural and urban

centers than between races. Generally, birth rates among Negroes have been

1/ In 1940 about 92 percent of the Miami Negroes were under 50 years of age as
compared to 79 percent for the American born whites.








higher than among the white race, but frequently deaths also have been greater.

This resulted in a lower state fertility ratio for Negroes than for native

whites in 1940.


Table l.--Differences in Fertility Between Native
Whites and Negroes for Florida, 1940.
n, GFertility*
Residence Groups : All Classes Native White : Negro

State 2 383 405 365

Total rural 545 : 561 531
Rural non-farm 496 519 465
Rural farm 657 : 652 689

Total urban : 280 299 : 270
Jacksonville 278 302 251
Miami : 242 : 263 : 229
Pensacola 335 367 278

*Based on number of children under 5 per 1,000 women 20 44 years of
age. Theoretical replacement quota, 444. In Florida in 1870 there
were 923 children under 5 per 1,000 women 20 44, 707 children in
1910, and 479 in 1930.

SOURCE: U. S. Census, 1940.


In 1940 the Negro rural farm population in Florida was providing a pro-

portionally larger share of the population replacement than any other group .

Certain traditions under which reproduction is regulated by prescriptions

and taboos are dropped in growing cities whereas other traditions are acquired.

/ Some authorities use a fertility ratio based on the total number of children
under 5 per 1,000 females 15 44. It is computed as follows:
S Number of children under 5
Fertility ratio = Number of females 15 44 X 1,000

In 1930 about 370 children per 1,000 women 15 through 44 were necessary to main-
tain a stationary population. For discussion refer to Land Economics by Ely and
Wehrwein, pp. 14-15, and to La. Bul., No. 403, 1946, La. Agri. Exp. Sta., Differ-
ential Fertility in Louisiana, p. 7.

By the use of this formula a fertility ratio of 314 children under 5 per 1,000
females 15 44 was obtained for the 1940 population of Florida.








This is especially true when ethnically different city populations, culturally

and religiously diverse, are separated chiefly along functional lines, such as

economic or occupational status, as are most cities in Florida. Traditions re-

lating to unlimited family size have survived more persistently in rural areas
1/
than in the cities All cultural ways and habits which tend to prolong or

shorten life are reflected in the density of population. Also, studies to date

have shown that areas having a high ratio of children to adult population are

usually areas with low per capital incomes and meager resources. Yet, even in

spite of adherence on the part of many members of disadvantaged populations to

traditional folkways, their fertility rates may continue to drop because of a

redistribution in age composition alone. Not withstanding the general postwar

upsurge in the birthrate, the outlook is that we are to become a nation--and

also a state within the nation--with an average age above that of today, and a

fertility ratio lower than at present, especially among those classes still

supplying the largest proportions of the population replacements to the state

and nation.


Redistribution in Age Structure

Problems created by a changing age composition of a population are many

and varied and affect the economic as well as the social life of a people.

1/ Changes in traditions should be more thoroughly explored, Dr. Kingsley Davis,
of Princeton University, in a letter to the writer states, "It is very important
from the point of view of demographic analysis to differentiate between the tra-
ditions lost and the ones not lost, and to study the timing of these changes."

2/ "The change in age distribution is a function of two different factors that
are not necessarily related. Improvement in conditions affecting health is cau-
sing an increase in the proportion of those born alive who reach maturity and
survive to more advanced ages. At the same time we are passing out of the period
when infants entered the scene in larger numbers each year, while the mature
population was made up of survivors of a much smaller number of infants. For both
reasons, the percentage of children in the total population is decreasing, while
the percentage of aged persons is growing." The Problems of a Changing Population,
National Resources Committee, 1938. p. 25.








Differences in age composition are often more pronounced between political sub-

divisions within a state than between states. For example, in 1940, 44.5 percent

of the Florida rural farm people were 19 years of age or under as compared to

29.1 percent of the urban population. This rural surplus of young people over

that of the cities makes it possible for urban populations to recruit employ-

ment replacements by attracting rural youth or persons of early maturity. In

1940 the ape group of 20 to 44 years represented 43.7 percent of the Florida

urban population and only 31.9 percent of the rural-farm population.

Not only are differences in age composition noted in various segments of

the population between residential groups, but changes in the age composition

in the same residential groups occur from one census period to another. In 1880

over 42 percent of the white population and 45 percent of the Negro population

were under age 15. These proportions had dropped to 33 and 36 percent for the

two races, respectively,.by 1940,

The labor supply of the future, as the population continues to increase
1/
in average age will be older than at present. Unless industry deals with this

fact realistically the social implications are most serious. There is need for

mutual understanding and tolerance for older workers past middle age and not

ready for retirement.

Approximately 71,000 persons 65 years of age or older resided in Florida

in 1940, which included 8 percent of the white population and 4 percent of the

Negro population as against 2 percent in 1880 for both races. By 1980, even

with a stationary population, this number may reach or exceed 213,000 if the

I/ Proportions for ago groups 25 to 54 in 1940 Pnd 1880 were bout 43 and 31
percent, respectively.







1/
rate of increase equals that expected for the nation as a whole As a nation

pledged to the security of the aged through legislation, the age changes taking

place in the total population within any state are of economic concern to all

Americans wherever they may live.

However, economic aspects are but a part of the problems arising from

changes in age composition. More homes for the needy and mentally infirm, and

more small residential homes may be required in the years ahead than at present.

Conditions enhancing cultural progress, and opportunities for spiritual and in-

tellectual development of individuals of the more mature ages must be recognized.

Per capital food consumption and eating habits may change radically as

larger proportions of the total population become older. Also in education

there will be regional problems arising from decreasing school enrollments due

to changes in age composition. For example, as a result of fewer younger

children per family, or because of emigration or both, school enrollments in

certain areas now show more children are enrolled in the upper 6 than in the

lower 6 grades.

Some more immediate effects upon the age composition of rural populations

occur in areas where considerable out-movement has taken place. It has been

estimated that the loss of the most talented 10 percent will cut down 50 percent

of the effective community support. Furthermore, conservatism is characteristic

of advanced age. In communities where increasing proportions of the people are

redistributed into older age groups conservatism may increase and extend into

community affairs and political thought. Also with age there appears to be a

1/ About 7,500,000 persons over 65 were estimated for the United States in 1935.
The number of this age class may reach 22,000,000 by 1980. The Problems of a
Changing Population. p. 32.





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definite slowing 4i&witg down of action, both physically and mentally. Attitudes

of people under such circumstances may develop into strong sentiments against

change, even to the point of open opposition to proposed programs for community

improvement.

Inasmuch as age composition changes of a population affect not only the

economic and social life of a people, but also man's thoughts and attitudes,

the broad implications that age changes have on economic activity, natural re-

sources, and social institutions, suggest that the subject needs to be more

thoroughly explored.


Conclusions

If stability of population is one of the prerequisites for the well-

being and prosperous future of Florida, and if a measure of well-being and

prosperity depends upon complete regional adjustments between populations and

the natural and material resources of the state, then the realization of this

goal cannot be expected immediately. Rather, it would seem that certain local

areas have particularized problems which, because of redundant populations, or

through failure to equalize opportunity, will become still more pressing before

they are solved.

Certainly both cooperation and competition are essential characteristics

of an effective economy. There are few civic or intellectual leaders who do not

recognize the need for further experimentation in order to find the ideal balance

between these two features. Differences of opinion, however, as to ways to pro-

ceed and changes to be sought are intense. The future course of the Florida

,/ Diettrich, Sigismond DeR., Florida's War Economy, Economic Leaflet, College
of Business Administration, U. of Fla,, Gainesville, November, 1945.





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population, and future opportunities for economic, social and personal develop-

ment will be determined largely by the spirit of critical inquiry with which

action programs are evaluated.

At present evidence points strongly toward continued human migrations.

Florida is in a most favored position, by reason of its climate and agricultural

possibilities, to attract and retain large numbers of people looking for new

homes and employment opportunities. If a well-rounded agricultural system, as

well as the development of manufPeturing, trade and servic- occupations, is

approached with the full recognition of the problems ahead the orderly and

progressive growth of Florida seems assured.





























DEA:ms 10/30/47
Exp. Sta., Ag. Ec., 50