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HISTORIC NOTE
The publications in this collection do
not reflect current scientific knowledge
or recommendations. These texts
represent the historic publishing
record of the Institute for Food and
Agricultural Sciences and should be
used only to trace the historic work of
the Institute and its staff. Current IFAS
research may be found on the
Electronic Data Information Source
(EDIS)
site maintained by the Florida
Cooperative Extension Service.
Copyright 2005, Board of Trustees, University
of Florida
Dan L. Gunter
Gary F.
Economic Information
Report 222
Fairchild
Long-Term Outlook for
Florida Oranges
Food and Resource Economics Department
Cooperative Extension Service
Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences
University of Florida, Gainesville 32611
June 1986
Abstract
The Florida orange industry is in a state of change with respect
to both production and marketing environments. The dynamics of the
industry include shifts in orange juice demand, freeze-reduced Florida
orange crops and increased Brazilian and out-of-state competition.
This report provides an assessment of the projected orange juice
supply-demand situation and the implications of market trends for
Florida's orange industry.
KEYWORDS: Florida oranges, orange juice, long-term outlook,
supply/demand forecasts.
ii
Table of Contents
List of Figures . . . .
List of Tables . . . .
Per Capita Citrus Consumption . . .
Orange Juice Demand . . . .
Demand Projections . . . .
Orange Juice Supply . . . .
Brazilian Orange Juice Supply-Demand Situation
U. S. FCOJ Imports . . . .
Brazilian Cost Advantage . . .
Florida Orange Production Projections . .
Implications of Supply-Demand Trends .
Literature Cited . . . .
Page
. . .. iii
. . iii
2
3
3
5
6
6
9
. . 2
. . . 3
. . . 3
. . . 5
. . . 6
. . . 9
. . .11
List of Figures
Figure
1. U.S. Citrus Per Capita Consumption . . .
2. U.S. Juice Sales . . . . .
3. Retail Orange Juice Sales . . . .
4. Orange Juice Prices: Actual and Real . . .
5. Orange Juice Production: Florida and Sao Paulo, Brazil
6. Brazilian FCOJ Exports . . . .
7. Deutsche Marks per U.S. Dollar . . .
8. Florida Round Orange Tree Inventory . . .
Page
. 13
. 13
* 14
. 14
* 15
. 15
. 16
. 16
List of Tables
Table ,Pge
1. FCOJ Production, 1979-80 Through 1985-86 Seasons . .. 18
2. Brazilian On-tree Orange Prices. . . . ... 19
3. Average Brazilian FCOJ Prices FOB Santos ........ 20
4. U.S. FCOJ Imports, All Sources, 1980-81 Through
1984-85 Seasons . . . . 21
5. Age Distribution of Florida Round Orange Trees By Year of
Inventory . . . . 22
6. Estimated Future Florida Orange Production Trends Given Various
Future Tree Planting Assumptions . .... 23
7. Florida Round Orange and Temple Production Estimates By Type,
1986-87 Through 1990-91 . . ... .. 24
List of Figures
Figure
1. U.S. Citrus Per Capita Consumption . . .
2. U.S. Juice Sales . . . . .
3. Retail Orange Juice Sales . . . .
4. Orange Juice Prices: Actual and Real . . .
5. Orange Juice Production: Florida and Sao Paulo, Brazil
6. Brazilian FCOJ Exports . . . .
7. Deutsche Marks per U.S. Dollar . . .
8. Florida Round Orange Tree Inventory . . .
Page
. 13
. 13
* 14
. 14
* 15
. 15
. 16
. 16
List of Tables
Table ,Pge
1. FCOJ Production, 1979-80 Through 1985-86 Seasons . .. 18
2. Brazilian On-tree Orange Prices. . . . ... 19
3. Average Brazilian FCOJ Prices FOB Santos ........ 20
4. U.S. FCOJ Imports, All Sources, 1980-81 Through
1984-85 Seasons . . . . 21
5. Age Distribution of Florida Round Orange Trees By Year of
Inventory . . . . 22
6. Estimated Future Florida Orange Production Trends Given Various
Future Tree Planting Assumptions . .... 23
7. Florida Round Orange and Temple Production Estimates By Type,
1986-87 Through 1990-91 . . ... .. 24
Long-Term Outlook For Florida Oranges
Dan L. Gunter and Gary F. Fairchild*
Florida's orange industry has been popularly described as "in
transition." This transition involves three major factors -- growth
and shifts in orange juice demand, the four freezes of this decade,
and expansion of Brazilian orange production. Discovery of citrus
canker in Florida nurseries in August 1984 has contributed to the
uncertainty regarding planting decisions.
Given the nature of citrus production, where a large investment
of time and capital is required before any returns can be realized,
formulation of expectations about the future is critical to
development of business plans. The purpose of this report is to
briefly describe how the above mentioned factors will impact on the
welfare of the industry in the years ahead.
Per Capita Citrus Consumption
Florida's orange industry has benefited tremendously as a result
of demand growth. Per capital consumption of citrus in the U.S.
roughly doubled between 1940 and 1980 (Figure 1). It increased from
62.5 pounds in 1940 up to 117.5 pounds in 1980 measured on a fresh
weight equivalent basis. During the 40-year period there were also
significant shifts in demand for processed versus fresh products which
have benefited Florida's orange industry. Fresh citrus consumption
*Dan L. Gunter and Gary F. Fairchild are Economic Research Director,
Florida Department of Citrus and Extension Fruit Marketing Economist,
Food and Resource Economics Department, IFAS, University of Florida,
respectively.
declined by 50% during the 40-year period. Average fresh consumption
was 52 pounds per capital in 1940 and 26 pounds per capital in 1980.
Processed consumption increased by about ninefold during the same time
period. Processed consumption was about 10 pounds per capital in 1940
and 91 pounds per capital in 1980. Given Florida's orientation to
production of juice type varieties, the state has realized significant
gains from the expansion in demand for processed products.
Orange Juice Demand
Orange juice is the single most important fruit juice in the
American consumer's diet. Typically, orange juice accounts for about
two-thirds of the volume of the principal fruit juices sold in the
U.S., including apple, grapefruit, grape, pineapple, and prune (Figure
2). Orange is a flavor that is universally liked; orange juice is
healthful; and it is a product that fits into consumers' lifestyles.
Because of these factors, orange juice demand is expected to continue
expanding in the years ahead.
In the ten-year period through 1982-83, retail sales of orange
juice in the U.S. expanded at a rate of 4.6% annually with sales of
chilled orange juice (COJ) accounting for almost all the growth in
demand (Figure 3). That expansion took place during a period when
retail orange juice prices were increasing but at a rate similar to
price changes of other goods and services. In constant dollar terms,
retail orange juice prices were relatively flat or declining.
In the past two seasons (1983-84 and 1984-85), retail orange
juice prices have increased at a faster rate than prices on other
consumer goods and services as shown in Figure 4 by the "real" price
line. Retail orange juice prices were up by 14.8% in 1983-84 from
1982-83, and in 1984-85 the price level increased an average of 8.6%.
The general price level increased by 4.3% and 3.5% in 1984 and 1985,
respectively. Despite the increase in relative orange juice prices in
the last two seasons, sales have declined only slightly. The modest
decline in sales volume is an indication of the strength of the
domestic orange juice market. The sales trends reflect a product with
broad consumer appeal. Typically, 83% of the U.S. households purchase
orange juice during any given year.
Demand Projections
The demand for orange juice is a function of population, consumer
income, prices of substitutes, changes in tastes and preferences, and
the price of the product. Given expected trends in these factors,
orange juice sales will continue to increase. Assuming the retail
price returns to the 1982-83 level in constant dollar or real terms
and increases with the general price level, orange juice sales are
expected to expand at an annualized rate of 3.8% through 1995. To the
extent that prices fall below the 1982-83 level, demand is expected to
expand at a faster rate.
Orange Juice Supply
Demand is obviously only half the equation. Supply is of equal
importance in price determination. Orange juice supplies are
primarily a function of orange production in Florida and Brazil.
Florida's freezes in combination with Brazil's continued expansion of
production have given Brazil the distinction of being the largest
line. Retail orange juice prices were up by 14.8% in 1983-84 from
1982-83, and in 1984-85 the price level increased an average of 8.6%.
The general price level increased by 4.3% and 3.5% in 1984 and 1985,
respectively. Despite the increase in relative orange juice prices in
the last two seasons, sales have declined only slightly. The modest
decline in sales volume is an indication of the strength of the
domestic orange juice market. The sales trends reflect a product with
broad consumer appeal. Typically, 83% of the U.S. households purchase
orange juice during any given year.
Demand Projections
The demand for orange juice is a function of population, consumer
income, prices of substitutes, changes in tastes and preferences, and
the price of the product. Given expected trends in these factors,
orange juice sales will continue to increase. Assuming the retail
price returns to the 1982-83 level in constant dollar or real terms
and increases with the general price level, orange juice sales are
expected to expand at an annualized rate of 3.8% through 1995. To the
extent that prices fall below the 1982-83 level, demand is expected to
expand at a faster rate.
Orange Juice Supply
Demand is obviously only half the equation. Supply is of equal
importance in price determination. Orange juice supplies are
primarily a function of orange production in Florida and Brazil.
Florida's freezes in combination with Brazil's continued expansion of
production have given Brazil the distinction of being the largest
orange producing country in the world. Brazil's production has
consistently exceeded production in Florida since the early part of
the 1980's (Figure 5).
The relative importance of Florida and Brazil in the orange juice
market flip-flopped, changing almost overnight. Florida produced
251.1 million 420 Brix gallons of FCOJ in 1979-80. compared with
Brazil's 146.2 million gallons (Table 1). In 1983-84, Florida
produced 118.4 million 420 gallons compared with Brazil's pack of
250.3 million gallons.
Brazilian Orange Juice Supply-Demand Situation
Brazil has the capacity to continue expanding orange production.
Production expansion has occurred at extremely high rates in the past
decade. The commercial tree inventory in the state of Sao Paulo,
Brazil doubled in the ten years between 1972-81. In 1972, there were
50.2 million trees in Sao Paulo compared with a tree inventory in 1981
of 106.2 million trees, an annualized increased of 8.7%. If Brazil's
inventory expands at just half the rate observed between 1972 and
1981, the inventory would be in excess of 170 million trees by 1995.
Continuation of expansion in Brazil will depend upon the expected
returns from orange production. On-tree orange prices in Sao Paulo
will be at record high levels in the 1985-86 season (Table 2). The
estimated U.S. dollar equivalent on-tree price for Brazilian oranges
is projected to range from $3.50 to $4.50 per box compared with a
previous high price of $2.12 per box in 1981-82. The higher price
levels of the last two seasons could encourage continued expansion of
commercial plantings.
5
Brazil's orange production expanded in response to expanding
export demand for FCOJ. An increasingly larger percentage of Brazil's
production has been exported to the U.S. in recent years. In 1984,
59.2 of Brazil's FCOJ exports were to the U.S. compared with 11.6% ten
years earlier (Figure 6). Part of the reason for the increase results
from the fact that Florida's production was reduced by freezes. In
addition, Brazil's markets outside the U.S. weakened as a result of
higher FCOJ prices and the strength of the U.S. dollar, Brazil's
pricing unit.
The price for Brazilian FCOJ increased from $844 per metric ton
(650 Brix) in 1980 to $1,565 per metric ton in 1985, and 85% increase
(Table 3). The strength of the U.S. dollar served to further increase
the price of Brazilian FCOJ outside the U.S. market. The German mark,
for example, declined in value by 91% from 1980 through 1984 (Figure
7). Realignment of the European currencies against the U.S. dollar
and lower Brazilian FCOJ prices would be expected to enhance world
demand for Brazilian concentrate. However, some feel that the
European orange juice market may have suffered long-term damage
because of growth in demand for juice drinks and nectars. Thus, the
U.S. has become an increasingly important market for Brazil and will
likely continue to be the destination of a large portion of Brazil's
exports in the years ahead. Construction of tank farms in the
northeastern U.S. will likely result in an increasing volume of
imports into U.S. ports outside Florida.
U.S. FCOJ Imports
Prior to the 1982-83 season, at least 80% of FCOJ imports entered
through Florida ports (Table 4). Florida processors were Brazil's
most important customers in the U.S. In 1982-83, imports into Florida
ports accounted for 66% of the imported volume, decreasing to 63% of
the volume imported in 1983-84 and 55% in the 1984-85 season. Imports
into ports outside of Florida have increased, in part, because of
growth in demand for ready-to-serve (chilled) orange juice, a product
easily packaged by existing dairy operations outside Florida. Because
of the expected continued growth in demand for ready-to-serve product
and Brazil's pricing strategy, the trend in imports around Florida
will likely continue as a competitive factor.
Brazilian Cost Advantage
Brazilian processors have historically enjoyed a production cost
advantage over the Florida processor. For example, Brazilian pick and
haul costs are reportedly one-third of the Florida costs. Brazil's
cost advantage translates into a marketing advantage. The Brazilian
industry can sell at a lower price and still recover costs. The cost
advantage will become a more important factor as Florida recovers from
the impact of four freezes in five seasons.
Florida Orange Production Projections
Prior to 1980, Florida experienced a major freeze about every
nine years. In the early 80's, long-term production estimates for the
decade of the 80's suggested that orange and Temple production would
range between 200 and 220 million boxes. Actual production has ranged
as low as 107.2 million boxes including Temples. production is
expected to return to pre-freeze levels. However, recovery is likely
through Florida ports (Table 4). Florida processors were Brazil's
most important customers in the U.S. In 1982-83, imports into Florida
ports accounted for 66% of the imported volume, decreasing to 63% of
the volume imported in 1983-84 and 55% in the 1984-85 season. Imports
into ports outside of Florida have increased, in part, because of
growth in demand for ready-to-serve (chilled) orange juice, a product
easily packaged by existing dairy operations outside Florida. Because
of the expected continued growth in demand for ready-to-serve product
and Brazil's pricing strategy, the trend in imports around Florida
will likely continue as a competitive factor.
Brazilian Cost Advantage
Brazilian processors have historically enjoyed a production cost
advantage over the Florida processor. For example, Brazilian pick and
haul costs are reportedly one-third of the Florida costs. Brazil's
cost advantage translates into a marketing advantage. The Brazilian
industry can sell at a lower price and still recover costs. The cost
advantage will become a more important factor as Florida recovers from
the impact of four freezes in five seasons.
Florida Orange Production Projections
Prior to 1980, Florida experienced a major freeze about every
nine years. In the early 80's, long-term production estimates for the
decade of the 80's suggested that orange and Temple production would
range between 200 and 220 million boxes. Actual production has ranged
as low as 107.2 million boxes including Temples. production is
expected to return to pre-freeze levels. However, recovery is likely
to take at least a decade due to the necessity of replanting or
planting of additional acreage.
As of 1984, Florida's commercial orange tree inventory is at the
lowest level since the census was initiated in 1966 (Figure 8). The
Florida Crop and Livestock Reporting Service "Citrus Tree Census" of
August 1985 revised the 1984 inventory in the 14 counties which were
most severely damaged in the 1985 freeze. The revision reduced the
total commercial production area to 474,616 acres compared with
627,174 acres in 1980. The revised 1984 inventory is 42.3 million
trees compared with 52.0 million trees in 1980. The freezes and
planting trends have also resulted in a shift in the age distribution
of the orange trees. Almost 33% of the inventory is made up of trees
less than ten years of age (Table 5).
Projections of Florida's future orange production are based on
four factors -- the tree inventory, the yield per tree by age group,
assumed plantings, and assumed tree loss rates. The yield, plantings
and tree loss rates are based on observed historical levels. The
yield reflects averages per tree reported by the Florida Crop and
Livestock Reporting Service during 1973-74 through 1982-83. Tree
losses reflect average rates for 1972 through 1982.
Planting rates are based on observed trends during 1979 through
1983. During this period early and midseason varieties were planted
at a rate of 1.4 million trees per year with the rate for Valencias
averaging about 900,000 trees per year. Temples were planted at a
rate of 9,000 trees per year. Planting rates in future years will
depend upon the profitability (or expected profitability) of orange
production and the availability of nursery stock, and could vary from
the levels observed during the 1979-83 period. In order to check the
sensitivity of future production levels to changes in planting rates,
production estimates were developed for three different rates -- the
average observed, double the average and triple the average.
Based on the assumptions outlined, production of round oranges
and Temples is projected to increase from 134 million boxes in 1986-87
up to 145 million boxes by 1990-91 if planting rates are maintained at
the average rate observed during 1979 through 1983 (Table 6).
Variation in planting rates will not impact on orange production until
1989-90 when trees planted in 1986-87 would begin to bear fruit.
Production is projected to reach 148 million boxes by 1990-91 if the
planting rate is doubled and 152 million boxes with in five years if
the planting rate is tripled. The production estimates should be
viewed as trends with production varying from season to season due to
grove care practices and/or general growing conditions.
Estimated production increases vary by orange type, with early
and midseason oranges accounting for the majority of projected
increases (Table 7). Early and midseason oranges are projected to
increase from 70 to 82 million boxes between 1986-87 and 1990-91.
Valencias are expected to increase from 60 to 63 million boxes during
the same period while Temples are projected to remain generally stable
at 4 million boxes.
Florida's recovery from the past four freezes will likely take
more than a decade. Even though Florida production is expected to
continue to increase during the next decade, orange juice production
from Florida fruit is not expected to be adequate to supply the
expanding U.S. market. Thus, imports will continue to be needed.
Without expanding markets outside the U.S., Brazil's expected orange
production increases in combination with recovery of production in
Florida are likely to put downward pressure on orange prices.
The above supply-demand scenario has implications in three major
areas -- Florida's production efficiency, U.S. tariff maintenance and
Florida's marketing efforts.
Implications of Supply-Demand Trends
Brazilian FCOJ exporters, once primarily supplemental suppliers
to the U.S. market, are now also a major competitive consideration.
Increased Brazilian competition necessitates improved production
efficiency for the industry to be able to remain competitive.
From the orange growers' perspective, the industry's legislative
efforts should continue in order to maintain the U.S. citrus tariffs
that help to level the playing field for the Florida citrus industry.
Reductions in the U.S. tariff will undermine Florida's competitive
position in the market.
Finally, Florida's marketing efforts should continually be
evaluated to insure that the programs are as effective as possible.
Florida's success in the orange juice market resulted in large measure
because of a history of successful marketing programs. The market
situation has changed. When Florida supplied 95% of the orange juice
in the U.S. market, the benefits of the marketing programs accrued in
large measure to the Florida citrus industry. The decline in the
share of the market supplied by Florida means that other suppliers are
benefiting from Florida's generic marketing efforts. The situation
does not mean that Florida should discontinue marketing efforts but
simply indicates the necessity of undertaking programs that more
closely tie promotional efforts to Florida processed products. The
"Seal of Approval" program initiated in the fall of 1985 reflects a
change in the generic marketing program that is designed to take
advantage of Florida's orange juice standards. The symbol is being
licensed for use to differentiate the product in the marketplace.
Expanded use of the Florida Sunshine Tree Symbol is also possible.
The Florida orange industry has continually adapted to change.
The industry has a strong base and orange juice demand is expected to
continue to expand. No doubt the industry will meet the challenges
posed by nature and the expected competitive environment in years
ahead.
Literature Cited
1. Attache Report. 1985 (and other years). Unpublished Annual
Citrus Report. Sao Paulo, Brazil.
2. Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture. July
1984. Fruit Outlook and Situation. Washington, D.C.
3. Florida Crop and Livestock Reporting Service. 1985. Citrus Tree
Census. Orlando, Florida.
4. Florida Crop and Livestock Reporting Service. 1984. Commercial
Citrus Inventory 1984 (and previous reports). Orlando, Florida.
5. Florida Department of Citrus. 1985. A.C. Nielsen Food Index
Annual Summary 1984. Market Research Report. Lakeland, Florida.
6. Florida Department of Citrus, Market Research Department. Citrus
Digest, Monthly Reports. Lakeland, Florida.
7. Gunter, Dan L. and Mark G. Brown. 1985. Florida Citrus Outlook
1985-86 season. Working paper 85-12. Economic Research
Department, Florida Department of Citrus, Gainesville, Florida.
8. Gunter, Dan L., Mark G. Brown, and Gary F. Fairchild. 1985.
Long-run Supply/Demand Forecast for Florida Citrus 1985 through
1995. CIR 85-1. Economic Research Department, Florida
Department of Citrus, Gainesville, Florida.
9. International Monetary Fund. International Financial Statistics,
Monthly Reports 1980-1985. Washington, D.C.
10. U.S. Department of Commerce. IM145X, Monthly Reports 1980-1985.
Washington, D.C.
Figures
U.S. CITRUS
POUNDS
120 r
Figure 1
PER CAPITAL CONSUMPTION
117.5
1920 1940 1960 1980
YEAR
Pounds = Fresh Weight Equivalent.
Figure 2.
U.S. JUICE SALES
(PERCENT)
ORANGE 68.9%
ORANGE 65.3%
PRUNE 2%
GRAPE 5.4%
PINEAPPLE 2.1%
_ "y GRAPEFRUIT 10.5%
APPLE 11.1%
1978
PINEAPPLE 2.3%
PRUNE 1.7%
GRAPE 5.6%
S GRAPEFRUIT 5.6%
APPLE 19.5%
1985
E URCE: NPD
PROCESSED
FRESH
USJUSAP1
14
Figure 3.
RETAIL ORANGE JUICE SALES
Mil. SSE Gal.
900 r 863 855
800 808 4r
000"0
709 715 708
700 650
700 o
500 00
422
400 -371 382 37
300
200
0 -
b ,A bb q 1Iv A A 41 A A AA Ab k p z;, b ^
Season
Source: A.C. Nielsen
FCOJ
Co.'
iiS?]
Figure 4.
ORANGE JUICE PRICES
ACTUAL AND REAL
4.00
3.75
3.50
3.25
3.00
2.75
2.50
3.80
ACTUAL
S ...... 2.9 1
REAL .2.91
FORECAST
------------
81-82 82-83
83-84 84-85
SEASON
2.25
79-80 80-81
Figure 5.
ORANGE PRODUCTION
FLORIDA AND SAO PAULO, BRAZIL
MILLION BOXES
220
200
180
160
140
120
100 -
80
60
40
20 1o.
0 '
,-.,103a.
V
-------" '
.---,--
,
01 0 l l 11 W l z 0 8 l l l ll N N l l
SEASON
Source: Florida Crop And Livestock Reporting
Service, and Instituto de Economia
Agricola.
Figure 6.
BRAZILIAN
FCOJ EXPORTS
905
A
5688
TOTAL 4 \
................... ..... / \28 7
/4 UNITED STATES
108 .**.
2 3 ..-". .. .
2 3 ......
YEAR
I 96.7
FLORIDA
SAO PAULO.
BRAZIL
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
En
z
0
I-
100
0
19741975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 19 1985
19741975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 19841985
mi, a, :, I, I I I I fI f I I I I ,f
' I @
Figure 7.
DEUTSCHE MARKS PER U.S.
JANUARY 1980 THROUGH APRIL
(Market Rate / Par or Cer!tral
3.5 r
DOLLAR
1986
Par)
3.32
3.3
3.1
2.9
2.7
2.1
1.9
1.7
2.27
1.74
I . . I . I I I. .I . . . . .
JMMJSNJMMJSNJMMJSNJMMJSNJMMJSN
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984
Month/Year
JMMJSNJM
1985
SOURCE: International Financial Statlattlc
Figure 8.
FLORIDA ROUND ORANGE TREE INVENTORY
53.8
53.5
48 +
42.3
1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984
YEAR
Tables
Table 1. FCOJ production, 1979-80 through 198K-86 seasons
Season Florida Brazil
--- million 420 Brix gallons ---
1979-80 251.1 146.2
1980-81 181.5 165.2
1981-82 133.3 202.1
1982-83 169.6 189.6
1983-84 121.2 169.0
1984-85 118.4 250.3
1985-86a 137.5 292.0
aEstimate
Table 2. Brazilian on-tree orange prices
Season Cruzerios/Box Dollars/Box
1975-76 8 .90
1976-77 10 .85
1977-78 30 2.00
1978-79 36 1.72
1979-80 51 1.70
1980-81 108 1.65
1981-82 210 2.12
1982-83 400 1.27
1983-84 850 .97
1984-85 4,500 2.10
1985-86 18,300a 3.50-4.50b
a20,000 CR less 1,700 CR for grower contribution to value added tax.
Expected
SOURCE: Agriculture Attache, Sao Paulo, Brazil.
Table 3. Average Brazilian FCOJ prices FOB Santos
Year Dollars/MT 650 Brix
1980 844
1981 1,081
1982 1,100
1983 1,100
1984 1,563
1985 1,565a
aEstimate based on minimum export prices.
Table 4. U.S. FCOJ Imports, all sources, 1980-81 through 1984-85 seasons.
Season
1980-81 1981-82 1982-83 1983-84 1884-85
Port
% of % of % of % of % of
Quantity Quantity Quantity Quantity Quantity
total total total total total
1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
% % % % % -
SSE gal. SSE gal. SSE gal. SSE gal. SSE gal.
Florida 166,970.5 80.11 303,631.6 81.15 248,694.4 65.95 337,559.1 63.27 329,084.7 55.2
Other 41,445.6 19.89 70,516.9 18.85 128,395.3 34.05 195,970.2 36.73 267,502.4 44.8
Total 208,416.1 100.00 374,148.5 100.00 377,089.7 100.00 533,529.3 100.00 596,587.1 100.00
aDecember through November.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of
Commerce, IM-145X.
Table 5. Age distribution of
inventory
Florida round orange trees by year of
Tree Age Total
Year
< 4 5-9 10-14 15-24 > 25
------------------ percent ----------------- 1,000 trees
1984 22.9 10.0 6.6 36.5 24.1 42,294
1982 13.9 6.9 7.2 40.2 31.8 53,505
1980 8.9 6.9 13.0 39.1 32.2 51,978
1978 6.7 7.7 23.4 31.5 30.6 50,843
1976 6.2 10.0 29.7 24.1 29.8 51,595
1974 5.8 21.0 27.8 16.9 28.4 52,522
1972 7.3 29.5 22.0 14.1 27.0 53,731
1970 14.5 32.8 14.8 13.4 24.4 57,802
SOURCE: Florida Crop and Livestock Reporting Service.
Table 6. Estimated future Florida orange production trends given
various future tree planting assumptions
Future Tree Planting Assumptions
Season
Averagea Doubleb Triplec
--------------- million boxes --------------
1986-87 134 134 134
1987-88 132 132 132
1988-89 141 141 141
1989-90 144 147 148
1990-91 145 148 152
aBased on average annual tree planting rate from 1979-1983.
bDouble the average annual tree planting rate from 1979-1983.
CTriple the average annual tree planting rate from 1979-1983.
SOURCE: Economic Research Department, Florida Department of Citrus.
Table 7. Florida round orange and Temple production estimates by
type, 1986-87 through 1990-91.a
Season Early & Valencia Temple Total
Midseason
---------------- million boxes ---------------
1986-87 70 60 4 134
1987-88 70 58 4 132
1988-89 77 60 4 141
1989-90 80 63 4 147
1990-91 82 63 3 148
aAssumes future tree planting rates will be double those observed
during 1979-1983.
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