Estimating Acreage of Fresh Citrus
http://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/ ( Publisher's URL )
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Permanent Link: http://ufdc.ufl.edu/IR00001914/00001
 Material Information
Title: Estimating Acreage of Fresh Citrus
Physical Description: Fact Sheet
Creator: Roka, Fritz M.
Publisher: University of Florida Cooperative Extension Service, Institute of Food and Agriculture Sciences, EDIS
Place of Publication: Gainesville, Fla.
Publication Date: 2001
Acquisition: Collected for University of Florida's Institutional Repository by the UFIR Self-Submittal tool. Submitted by Melanie Mercer.
Publication Status: Published
General Note: "Published September 2001"
General Note: "FE 303"
 Record Information
Source Institution: University of Florida Institutional Repository
Holding Location: University of Florida
Rights Management: All rights reserved by the submitter.
System ID: IR00001914:00001


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Estimating Acreage of Fresh Citrus1 Fritz M. Roka2 1. This is EDIS document FE 303, a publication of the Department of Food and Resource Economics, Florida Cooperative Extension Service, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL. Published September 2001. Please visit the EDIS website at http://edis.ifas.ufl.edu. 2. Fritz M. Roka, assistant professor, Department of Food and Resource Economics, Southwest Florida Research and Education Center, Immokalee, FL, Florida Cooperative Extension Service, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL. The Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences is an equal opportunity/affirmative action employer authorized to provide research, educational information and other services only to individuals and institutions that function without regard to race, color, sex, age, handicap, or national origin. For information on obtaining other extension publications, contact your county Cooperative Extension Service office. Florida Cooperative Extension Service/Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences/University of Florida/Christine Taylor Waddill, Dean. Introduction How many acres of Florida citrus are managed for fresh production? A seemingly straightforward question, but it is one without an easy or precise answer. While Florida Agricultural Statistics Service (FASS) annually reports total acreage by variety, FASS does not track citrus acreage managed for the fresh market. FASS and the Citrus Administrative Committee (CAC) collect and report other valuable data, including production, fresh utilization, and average prices for both fresh and processed fruit. This publication explains two approaches that can be used to estimate the acreage of fresh citrus. The first approach relies on assumptions concerning planting intentions. The second approach relies on assumptions of pack-out percentages. When considered together, the two approaches provide upper and lower bounds for fresh citrus acreage. Uses for Fresh Acreage Estimates An estimate of fresh citrus acreage would be important for three reasons. First, it would define the potential supply of fresh citrus. Second, it would help the Florida Department of Citrus and other grower organizations to plan their marketing strategies for fresh fruit. Third, a fresh acreage estimate would provide chemical companies and other industry suppliers with a basis for predicting the extent to which fresh citrus growers would buy their products and services. Planting Intentions Estimates One approach for estimating fresh citrus acreage is to consider "planting intentions." If a grower intends for his fruit to be marketed through a packinghouse, then his grove caretaking operations should reflect fresh marketing goals. In other words, if citrus varieties are planted with the intention of selling to fresh markets, then 100 percent of the caretaking operations should be devoted to achieving fresh market standards. Furthermore, whatever the eventual pack-out rate is does not change the fact that a grower will manage a block of fresh acreage uniformly. The estimates of planting intentions used in this publication were not based on formal surveys. Rather, they reflect the opinions of industry experts, including several large growers. All the acreage of specialty citrus varieties, mandarins, and Navel oranges are assumed to be planted with the intention of selling fresh fruit. While a substantial portion of grapefruit is processed for juice annually, most growers acknowledge that their first preference is to market fresh grapefruit. In this publication, 95 percent


Estimating Acreage of Fresh Citrus 2 of the grapefruit are assumed to be planted for the fresh market. Most of the early-, mid-, and late-season oranges are destined for processing plants. However, five percent of the crop is marketed annually through fresh channels. Consequently, five percent of the acreage is allocated as being managed as fresh citrus. Table 1 presents an estimate of fresh citrus acreage in Florida by planting intention for the 1997-98 season. Bearing and non-bearing acreage are multiplied by planting intention percentages. Summing across all varieties gives an estimate of fresh acreage based on planting intentions, nearly 224,000 acres of fresh citrus acreage, or approximately 26 percent of the total citrus acreage. Pack-Out Estimates A more conservative approach for estimating fresh citrus acreage is to utilize pack-out percentages. Listed in column two of Table 2 are estimates of annual pack-out rates by variety for the 1997-98 season. These percentages were compiled using a phone survey of nine Florida citrus packers. Dividing pack-out rates into the Florida Agricultural Statistics Service's (FASS) fresh utilization statistics provides an estimate of the total boxes delivered to packinghouses. Fresh citrus acreage by variety is determined by multiplying the total bearing and non-bearing acreage by the percentage of fresh production. The pack-out approach indicates that nearly 193,000 acres were being managed for fresh citrus during the 1997-98 season. This represents 23 percent of the total citrus acreage. Conclusion There are no formal statistics to document Florida's fresh citrus acreage. Therefore, indirect methods based on planting intentions and pack-out percentages need to be used for estimating fresh citrus acreage. The two methods presented in this publication provide upper and lower bounds for fresh citrus acreage. During the 1997-98 season, estimates based on planting intentions indicated 233,788 of fresh citrus acreage, and estimates based on pack-out percentages indicated 192,713 acres. In other words, between 23 percent and 26 percent of the total Florida citrus acreage were planted for fresh market outlets.


Estimating Acreage of Fresh Citrus 3 Table 1. Estimates of fresh citrus acreage, by planting intentions, 1997-98. Citrus Variety Bearing Acres Non-bearing Acres % of Acreage Intended for Fresh Market Estimate of Fresh Acreage Early/Mid Oranges 293,273 14,455 5% 15,386 Valenica Oranges 291,585 22,725 5% 15,716 Navel Oranges 23,897 1,253 100% 25,150 Temple Oranges 6,151 303 100% 6,454 White Grapefruit 46,609 2,032 95% 46,209 Red Grapefruit 74,739 1,289 95% 72,227 Seedy Grapefruit 3,388 39 0% 0 Tangelos 12,196 472 100% 12,668 Tangerines (all) 24,017 1,961 100% 25,978 Limes 2,469 358 100% 2,827 Lemons 922 251 100% 1,173 Other Citrus 1,930 12,493 0% 0 Total Acreage 784,176 57,628 N/A 223,788 Table 2. Estimates of fresh citrus acreage, by pack-out percentage, 1997. Citrus Variety Estimate of Fresh Pack-out (%) Fresh Utilization (1,000 boxes) Estimate of Fresh Production (%) Total Acreage (bearing + non-bearing) Estimate of Fresh Acreage Early/Mid Oranges 60% 3,481 4% 307,728 13,353 Valencia Oranges 70% 3,596 6% 314,310 15,526 Navel Oranges 60% 4,154 100% 25,150 25,150 Temple Oranges 60% 566 42% 6,454 2,706 White Grapefruit 40% 4,834 66% 51,641 34,103 Red Grapefruit 60% 16,371 89% 76,025 67,789 Seedy Grapefruit 0% 0 0% 3,427 0 Tangelos 70% 913 46% 12,668 5,797 Tangerines (all) 70% 3,428 94% 25,978 24,465 Limes 75% 330 100% 2,827 2,827 Lemons 75% 68 85% 1,173 997 Other Citrus 0% 0 0% 14,423 0 Total Acreage N/A N/A N/A 841,804 192,713