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BULLETIN 333 Impact of a Methyl Bromide Ban on the U.S. Vegetable Industry1 John J. VanSickle, Charlene Brewster, Thomas H. Spreen2 1. This document is Bulletin 333, one of a series of the Department of Food and Resource Economics, Florida Cooperative Extension Service, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida. Date First Printed; February 2000, Date Reviewed; March 2000. Please visit the EDIS Web site at http://edis.ifas.ufl.edu. 2. John J. VanSickle, professor, director of the International Agricultural Trade and Development Center, Department of Food and Resource Economics; and Thomas H. Spreen, professor and Charlene Brewster, graduate research assistant, Department of Food and Resource Economics, Cooperative Extension Service, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida 32611. The Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences is an equal opportunity/affirmative action employer authorized to provide research, educational information and other services only to individuals and institutions that function without regard to race, color, sex, age, handicap, or national origin. For information on obtaining other extension publications, contact your county Cooperative Extension Service office. Florida Cooperative Extension Service/Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences/University of Florida/Christine Taylor Waddill, Dean. Introduction Methyl bromide is a broad spectrum pesticide that has been identified as critical for the production and marketing of many fruit and vegetable crops. Parties to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (the international agreement that monitors ozone depleting substances and provides international regulations on their production and use, commonly referred to as the Montreal Protocol) declared at their November 1992 meeting that methyl bromide had an ozone depletion potential (ODP) of 0.7, well above the 0.2 ODP required to be classified as a Class I ozone depleting substance. The U.S. Clean Air Act of 1992 requires that all Class I ozone depleting substances be banned from use within seven years of being classified. The schedule adopted by U.S. regulators was a complete ban on all use of methyl bromide by January 1, 2001. The Clean Air Act was amended in 1998 to extend the phase-out period for methyl bromide to 2005. This new schedule is synchronous with the schedule for developed countries that are parties to the Montreal Protocol, which calls for a 25 percent reduction in use of methyl bromide in 1999 from the 1991 base levels and another 25 percent reduction in use in 2001. An additional 20 percent reduction in use is scheduled for 2003, with a complete phase out scheduled for January 1, 2005. Soil fumigation accounts for nearly 80 percent of the worldwide use of methyl bromide (UNEP, 1997). Tomatoes and strawberries account for more than half of that amount with 35 percent and 20 percent of all soil fumigation applied on tomato and strawberry production, respectively. The U.S. was identified as using 40 percent of the methyl bromide used worldwide in 1991, but that amount dropped to 32 percent in 1995 as production of tomatoes and strawberries declined (UNEP, 1998). Spreen et al. (1995) estimated that the loss of methyl bromide would have a $1 billion impact on the U.S. winter vegetable industry, with Florida accounting for nearly all of this impact. Lynch (1996) estimated that the impact on strawberries could be as large as a $313.6 million loss in U.S. producer surplus. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) indicated that research and development could have significant effects in reducing the impact
Impact of a Methyl Bromide Ban on the U.S. Vegetable Industry 2 of a methyl bromide ban (UNEP, 1997). Using the model developed by Spreen et al. (1995), UNEP estimated that the impact on tomato production in Florida could be reduced from a 61.4 percent production loss to 21.8 percent if yield impacts could be reduced from a range of 20 percent to 40 percent (depending on area produced) to a range of zero percent to 40 percent. Strawberry impacts in Florida could be reduced from a production loss of 68.7 percent to 28.3 percent if yield impacts could be reduced from 25 percent to five percent. Significant research has been completed for evaluating the yield and cost impacts of alternatives to methyl bromide (UNEP, 1997). Most of this research focuses on chemical alternatives to methyl bromide. Many integrated pest management (IPM) strategies are in preliminary stages of evaluation. The research has resulted in more reliable data on existing alternatives and development of new alternatives that could lower the impact on producers and consumers. The objective of this research is to evaluate the impacts of methyl bromide alternatives on U.S. producers of fresh vegetables and to evaluate potential targets for alternatives to minimize the impacts on producers. This was accomplished by developing a North American vegetable model that accounts for a large majority of the methyl bromide used for soil fumigation purposes for fresh vegetables and strawberries. This model is used to estimate the impact of a methyl bromide ban on producers of fresh vegetables and strawberries who supply those products to North American markets. The impacts on U.S. consumers of those products is also estimated. North American Vegetable Model A model of the North American vegetable market was developed to estimate the impacts of a ban of methyl bromide on producers and consumers of fresh vegetables in North America. The model expands previous work by Spreen et al. (1995) by converting that model from a winter model to a full-year model (a mathematical presentation of the model is contained in Appendix). The North American vegetable model can be characterized as a spatial equilibrium problem. The model is limited to those crops that use methyl bromide as a pre-plant fumigant and those crops that are competitive with crops that use methyl bromide. Crops that may be affected by a methyl bromide ban include tomatoes, peppers, eggplant, cucumbers, squash, watermelons, and strawberries. Producing areas included in the model are Florida, Mexico, California, Texas, South Carolina, Virginia, and Maryland combined, and Alabama and Tennessee combined. Florida was separated into four producing areas: Dade County, Palm Beach County, Southwest Florida (near Immokalee, Florida), and West Central Florida (Palmetto-Ruskin area). Mexico was included with two producing areas: the Mexican states of Sinaloa and Baja California. California was separated into two producing areas for strawberries: Southern California (including Orange, Ventura, San Diego, and Los Angeles Counties) and Northern California (the remaining California production). The U.S. vegetable model allocates production of these crops across regions based on their cost delivered to regional markets; productivity and the regional demand structure in the U.S. Inverse demand equations were employed in the model based on work by Scott (1991) and used by Spreen et al. (1995). An inverse Rotterdam system of five equations of fresh vegetable demand in the U.S. was estimated for four selected markets: Los Angeles, Chicago, Atlanta, and New York City. The system of equations was estimated for the crops included in the model, with monthly wholesale prices and unloads data collected by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing Service, Fruit and Vegetable Division, Market News Branch. Demand flexibilities are presented in Table 1. The intercepts of the demand equations were adjusted to reflect aggregate demand (as outlined by Spreen et al., 1995). The adjustments were accomplished by dividing the U.S. and Canada into four demand regions and allocating aggregate consumption across those regions. Preharvest and postharvest production costs were estimated for each production system and area included in the model. Florida uses several double cropping systems in which a primary crop is first produced, and then inputs from the primary crop are used to produce a second crop on the same unit of land. Cropping systems used in each producing area are listed in Table 2 with the per-acre preharvest
Impact of a Methyl Bromide Ban on the U.S. Vegetable Industry 3 costs, per-unit postharvest costs, and yields per acre that have been estimated in producing these crops with methyl bromide. Transportation costs were included for delivering these products to each of the regional markets based on mileages determined by the Automap software and an estimate of $1.3072 per mile as the transportation cost of a fully loaded refrigerated truck carrying 40,000 pounds of product (VanSickle et al., 1994). The alternatives that were selected and modeled as the next best alternatives were those identified at meetings of scientists, industry representatives, and environmental advocates. In most cases, these meetings were organized by the USDA to present the existing state of knowledge about known alternatives and to allow participants to discuss their views about existing and emerging technologies. The participants were asked to indicate the alternatives they felt users would adopt and to provide their best estimates of the impacts of next best alternatives on cost and yield. The yield impacts expected when using the next best alternative in each cropping system are also listed in Table 2. Methyl Bromide Alternatives The discussions held by the USDA identified those alternatives which users are most likely to switch to and the impacts they are expected to have on costs and yield for the crops involved. Several studies have been completed for some crops in evaluating those alternatives that may be implemented by current users of methyl bromide. Other crops have had few, if any, studies completed to provide the knowledge necessary to understand the potential impacts on their yield and costs. Estimates of impacts on production of these crops were determined from discussions with scientists attending the USDA sponsored meetings (USDA, 1998a; USDA, 1998b). The conclusions reached at those meetings for impacts on costs and yield provide a framework for the economic evaluations of alternatives. A summary of these estimates is described below and in Table 2. Strawberries. Producers in West Central Florida are assumed to switch to an in-row or broadcast application of a Telone C17/Devrinol herbicide combination as a replacement to methyl bromide. The impact of this alternative is an expected decline of $71 per acre in preharvest costs and a 15 percent decline in yield. Telone requires that additional protective equipment be worn by applicators, which increases preharvest cost, but Telone C17/Devrinol will be less costly to apply than methyl bromide. Scientists attending the USDA meetings indicated that the effectiveness of this alternative is lower than reported in some research trials because of the potential for longer residual in the soil, the associated problems of crop phytotoxicity, and possible increases in pest pressures, all of which are not accounted for in those studies. The low impact scenario for Florida strawberries assumes a 10 percent reduction in yields. The high impact scenario assumes a 20 percent reduction in yields. California is assumed to switch to an application of Chloropicrin with additional hand weeding. The expected impact of this alternative is a $653 per acre increase in preharvest costs and a 20 percent decline in yields. The low impact scenario for California strawberries assumes a 10 percent reduction in yields. The high impact scenario assumes a 30 percent reduction in yields. Tomatoes. Florida tomato growers are assumed to switch to an in-row application of a Telone C17 and Tillam herbicide combination. The use of Telone will require additional personal protective equipment that must be worn by applicators and field workers. Using this combination will result in changes to preharvest costs, ranging from an $84 per acre decline for fall tomatoes grown in West Central Florida to an increase of $36 per acre for both spring and fall tomatoes grown in Southwest Florida. Those cost impacts vary even more for double cropping systems where tomatoes are the primary crop. In those cropping systems, cost impacts range from a decrease of $61 per acre for a double cropping system of tomatoes and cucumbers grown in Southwest Florida to an increase of $255 per acre for a double cropping system of tomatoes and squash grown in West Central Florida. Tomato yields in each of these cropping systems are expected to decline 10 percent in all areas but Dade County where yields are expected to decline by 20 percent because of
Impact of a Methyl Bromide Ban on the U.S. Vegetable Industry 4 regulatory constraints that restrict Telone use. The low impact yield decline is assumed to be five percent in each area but Dade County where the yield impact is assumed to be 10 percent. The high impact yield decline is assumed to be 20 percent in each area but Dade County where the yield decline is assumed to be 25 percent. No other producing areas included in the model rely on methyl bromide for efficient production of tomatoes. There is some use of methyl bromide but alternatives are currently used by most producers. The resulting expected impacts on costs and yield are assumed to be zero for each scenario in those areas. Peppers. Florida pepper growers are assumed to switch to a Telone C17/Devrinol herbicide combination as an alternative to methyl bromide. Again, Telone requires the use of additional personal protective equipment by applicators and field workers. Preharvest cost changes from using this alternative are expected to range from a decline of $41 per acre for spring peppers grown in West Central Florida to an increase of $397 per acre for peppers grown in Palm Beach County, Florida. Cost impacts are even higher in double cropping systems producing peppers as the primary crop, increasing costs by $437 per acre for a pepper-cucumber double cropping system grown in Palm Beach County. The yield impact is expected to be a 15 percent decline in all areas of Florida but Dade County where the expected impact is assumed to be 25 percent because of restrictions on Telone use. The low impact scenario for peppers grown in Florida assumes a 10 percent decline in yields in all areas but Dade County where yields are assumed to decline 15 percent. The high impact scenario assumes a 25 percent decline in yields in all areas but Dade County where impacts are assumed to be 30 percent. No other producing area included in the model relies on methyl bromide for growing fresh bell peppers as a predominate practice. The banning of methyl bromide is not expected to impact their preharvest production costs or expected yields. Eggplant. Florida growers of eggplant are expected to switch to a Telone C17/ Devrinol combination as an alternative to methyl bromide. The impact of this change is expected to be a $327 per-acre increase in preharvest costs for eggplant grown in Palm Beach County, Florida and a 15 percent decline in yields. The low impact scenario for eggplant grown in Florida is assumed to be a seven percent decline in yields and the high impact scenario is assumed to be a 30 percent decline in yields. No other producing area included in the model uses methyl bromide as the predominate practice for production of eggplant and therefore will have no impact on preharvest costs or yield. Cucumbers, Watermelons, and Squash. Cucumber, watermelon, and squash growers do not generally use methyl bromide when grown as single crops. These crops are, however, frequently planted as a second crop to tomatoes and bell peppers in Florida. Preharvest costs and yields for cucumbers, watermelons, and squash will be impacted by the alternative production practices used to grow the first crop in the double cropping system. It is assumed that the alternative used for the first crop will be the alternative used in a double cropping system. Preharvest cost changes are expected to range from a decrease of $61 per acre for tomatoes and cucumbers grown in a double cropping system in Southwest Florida to an increase of $37 for peppers and cucumbers grown in a double cropping system in Palm Beach County, Florida. Yields will be impacted by the loss of methyl bromide as certain pests will become re-established and more difficult to manage following a first crop. It is expected that yields on these second crops will decline 15 percent when methyl bromide is no longer available. The low impact scenario assumes a seven percent decline in yields and the high impact scenario assumes a 30 percent decline in yields for these crops. Empirical Results The model was solved using GAMS programming software. The analysis of impacts from switching to an alternative for methyl bromide was conducted in two parts. First the model was solved with parameters that assumed continued use of methyl bromide. This solution provided the baseline for comparison to other solutions where the parameters of the model were adjusted to reflect a ban on methyl bromide use. The adjustments that are made in the parameters reflect changes in production
Impact of a Methyl Bromide Ban on the U.S. Vegetable Industry 5 costs and changes in yield in switching to the alternatives. Three initial scenarios beyond the baseline were solved with the model. The first scenario assumed the next best alternative given projections on expected cost and yield impacts that were developed from workshops held in Florida and California to discuss alternatives to methyl bromide. A low impact scenario was then solved where yield impacts were reduced to reflect lower impacts than those identified at the methyl bromide workshops. The third scenario was solved where yield impacts were assumed to be larger than those developed in the workshops. The cost impacts were assumed to be the same in each scenario. Yield impacts for each scenario are listed in Table 2. Baseline Solution The solution to the quadratic programming model included equilibrium prices and quantity consumed by month and crop in each of the four market areas, shipments by month and crop from each producing area to each market, and the acres planted to each cropping system in each producing area. The baseline solution performed reasonably well in replicating the observed pattern of shipments and acres planted for the 1993/94 production season. The acres planted by cropping system in each of the producing areas for the baseline model are shown in Table 3. Total acreage that is planted to tomatoes in Florida in the baseline model is 49,765 acres, which is slightly more than the 46,500 acres reported by the Florida Agricultural Statistics Service for the 1993/94 season. The total baseline acreage of tomatoes is 142,736, which is within three percent of the total acreage actually planted in all of the producing areas included in the model for 1994. The baseline acreage of each of the other crops was also estimated within three of the actual acreage reported for the 1994 season. Model Solution under a Methyl Bromide Ban The acreages planted by cropping system in each of the major producing areas, under a methyl bromide ban with expected impacts on cost and yield, are shown in Table 3. Table 3 also provides the expected acres to be planted by cropping system in each of the producing areas, with high and low impacts on yield. Results in Table 3 demonstrate that significant effects may be expected if methyl bromide is banned and no better alternatives are developed than are known today. Total acres planted across all areas are not expected to change significantly for any crop, but the allocation of production across producing areas is significant for all crops. Tomatoes. Tomato production in Dade and Palm Beach Counties in Florida is expected to cease under all scenarios for the methyl bromide ban. Southwest Florida and Mexico are expected to increase producing acreage significantly, offsetting most of the loss in Dade and Palm Beach Counties. Total production of tomatoes across all areas is expected to decrease 2.4 percent in response to the lower productivity expected in switching to methyl bromide alternatives (Table 4). The average wholesale price is expected to increase 0.87 percent (Table 5), but the total revenues that growers receive for tomatoes is expected to decrease $15.7 million (Table 6) in the expected impacts scenario. Wholesale prices increase 2.17 percent in the high impacts scenario and total revenues decline $61.3 million. Florida suffers the greatest loss in tomato shipping point revenues with a loss of $68.8 million in the expected impacts scenario and a $171.8 million loss in the high impacts scenario. Mexico increases their shipping point revenues by $51.5 million in the expected impacts scenario and $108.0 million in the high impacts scenario. Two significant conclusions to draw from these results are that Florida will lose significant market share and shipping point revenues and Mexico will gain market share and shipping point revenues. Within Florida, Dade and Palm Beach Counties will stop producing commercial quantities of tomatoes and Southwest Florida will increase production to offset some of that loss. Peppers. The impacts are even more significant for peppers. Acreage of bell peppers in Florida is expected to decline 65 percent (Table 3) given existing alternatives that were identified in the methyl bromide workshops hosted by the USDA. Acreage in Texas and Mexico are expected to increase significantly, offsetting the loss experienced in Florida. Total acres planted to bell peppers across
Impact of a Methyl Bromide Ban on the U.S. Vegetable Industry 6 all areas are expected to increase four percent. The largest negative impact again is felt by Palm Beach County, Florida, where planted acreage of peppers is expected to decline from 14,310 acres to 3,066 acres in the expected impacts scenario. The West Central Florida producing area is also expected to decrease acres of peppers from 9,448 acres to 5,203 acres in the expected impacts scenario. The loss of pepper acreage in Florida is more than offset with increased acreage in both Texas and Mexico. Neither of these areas use methyl bromide as a predominant production practice and Texas is expected to increase acreage from 5,156 acres to 12,428 acres in the expected impacts scenario. Mexico is expected to increase acreage from 13,339 acres to 23, 348 acres. Total production of peppers is expected to decline by 12.3 percent (Table 4) and wholesale bell pepper prices are expected to increase 4.5 percent (Table 5). Total shipping point revenues for peppers are expected to decline $37.8 million in the expected impacts scenario with Florida suffering a $134.8 million loss in shipping point revenues (Table 6). Shipping point revenues in Texas and Mexico are expected to increase $33.3 million and $63.7 million, respectively. Even the low impacts scenario results in significant losses to Florida producers with shipping point revenues declining $119.9 million and Texas and Mexico shipping point revenues increasing $32.4 million and $55.0 million, respectively. Cucumbers. Cucumber acreage in Palm Beach County is also significantly affected by the methyl bromide ban. Acres of cucumbers planted in Palm Beach County declines from 7,276 acres to 3,066 acres under the expected impacts scenario (Table 3). Southwest Florida increases acres of cucumbers from 384 acres to 3,413 acres under the expected impacts scenario. Total production of cucumbers declines by 6.1 percent (Table 4) and wholesale prices increase 1.4 percent (Table 5). Total revenues are expected to decline $4.4 million with Florida suffering a $6.2 million loss in shipping point revenues and Mexico gaining $1.8 million in shipping point revenues (Table 6). Squash. Planted acres of squash actually increase in all areas under the methyl bromide ban. Double cropping of squash increases in Southwest Florida and single crop squash production increases in Dade County and in Mexico. The increase in production in Southwest Florida is small and is due to the increased competitiveness between double cropped squash and tomatoes. Because tomatoes are impacted in Dade and Palm Beach Counties, tomato production in Southwest Florida increases to take advantage of the opportunities created by the void left by Dade and Palm Beach Counties. Production of tomatoes with squash offers greater opportunities, increasing the acres devoted to this cropping system by 585 acres (Table 3). This increase is not enough to offset the decrease in productivity lost in this producing area, resulting in less total production of squash in Southwest Florida. Lower production in Southwest Florida offers opportunities to those in Dade County and in Mexico who produce without methyl bromide and are not impacted by a methyl bromide ban. The results show increases in acreage in all three producing areas. However, production actually declines in Southwest Florida and increases in Dade County and in Mexico, with a loss of 2.4 percent across all areas (Table 4). Total shipping point revenues decline by $134,700 in the expected impacts scenario and by $1.1 million in the high impacts scenario (Table 6). The low impacts scenario results in an insignificant increase in shipping point revenue. Eggplant. A methyl bromide ban will have its most significant impact in relative terms on eggplant production. Planted acres of eggplant in Florida are expected to decline 64 percent with existing technologies, but acreage in Mexico is expected to increase 73 percent, offsetting most of the loss in Florida so that total acreage declines only six percent (Table 3). Total production of eggplant in all areas is expected to decline 20.3 percent (Table 4) and wholesale prices are expected to increase 4.6 percent (Table 5). Total shipping point revenues are expected to decline $9.9 million with Florida suffering a $27.7 million loss and Mexico gaining $17.8 million (Table 6). Watermelons. Watermelons grown as a second crop, following tomatoes, using methyl bromide are expected to decline slightly in Florida. Watermelon production is expected to stop in West Central Florida, and all acreage for the early spring market is
Impact of a Methyl Bromide Ban on the U.S. Vegetable Industry 7 expected to be grown in Southwest Florida. This shift results in the loss in profitability of tomatoes grown as a first crop because of lost productivity. Total production of watermelons grown in this market window is expected to decline 13.9 percent in the expected impacts scenario (Table 4). Total revenues received from watermelons are expected to decline $3.4 million under the expected impacts scenario and decline $8.7 million in the high impacts scenario (Table 6). Strawberries. Total impacts are largest for strawberries. The impacts on California are significant because of the high cost and high productivity of current production systems in California. Strawberry production in Northern California is expected to cease under the expected impacts scenario and decline slightly in the Southern California growing areas (Table 3). Acreage in Florida is expected to increase from 6,177 acres to 8,302 acres under the expected impacts scenario and to 10,027 acres in the high impacts scenario. Total strawberry production is expected to decline 35.3 percent (Table 4) and wholesale price is expected to increase 9.4 percent (Table 5). Total shipping point revenues are expected to decline $192.8 million under the expected impacts scenario and decline $243.1 million under the high impacts scenario (Table 6). Clearly, strawberry production in Northern California is at risk given the current state of knowledge about alternatives to methyl bromide. Aggregate Impacts. Florida and California stand to suffer similar total losses when a ban on methyl bromide is imposed if better alternatives are not developed. Florida shippers stand to lose $218.4 million (Table 7) in shipping point revenues across all crops, while California shippers stand to lose $218.1 million under the expected impacts scenario. Those impacts increase to $349.3 million for Florida and $291.0 million for California if yield impacts increase to the level assumed in the high impacts scenario. If expected impacts decrease to the levels specified in the low impacts scenario, shipping point revenues decline $179.5 million in Florida and $143.7 million in California. Mexico will gain from the loss of methyl bromide due to its lesser reliance on it as a pesticide and because Mexican producers will have an additional 10 years to use methyl bromide under the Montreal Protocol. Mexican shippers will gain $134.9 million under a methyl bromide ban with the expected impacts scenario. Their revenues will increase $213.3 million under the high impacts scenario and by $111.6 million under the low impacts scenario. Texas will also gain $33.3 million in shipping point revenues since peppers grown by their producers do not rely on methyl bromide. South Carolina also gains $9.4 million from increased shipping point revenues for tomatoes. In total, shipping point revenues are expected to decline $264.2 million under the expected impacts scenario. Those impacts increase to a $386.1 million decline under the high impacts scenario. The low impacts scenario results in a $175.7 million decline in shipping point revenues. Losses in consumer surplus were also measured in the model as the area under the demand curve that is lost when a ban on methyl bromide is imposed. Consumer surplus is lost because of a decline in the quantity of products consumed and an increase in the prices paid for those products consumed. Consumer surplus is expected to decline $111.7 million dollars under the expected impacts scenario (Table 8). That loss is expected to increase to $176.4 million under the high impact scenario. If impacts on productivity are lowered to those assumed in the low impacts scenario, then consumer surplus losses decline to $66.6 million. Searching for the Seamless Transition The loss of methyl bromide will clearly have significant impacts on producers of crops who rely on it as part of their production practices and ultimately on consumers of those crops. A relevant question for policy makers and researchers would be "What targets must be achieved in reducing impacts for methyl bromide alternatives in order to experience minimal changes in market shares for existing producers?" That question can be explored using the model developed for this analysis. It was assumed that a seamless transition is experienced when market shares, after adopting alternatives, are within 10 percent of the baseline market shares. The question was explored by using the cost impacts assumed in the expected impacts scenario and then
Impact of a Methyl Bromide Ban on the U.S. Vegetable Industry 8 by "ratcheting" down the impacts on yield for each of the crops in the model until the largest impact felt by any producing area for any single crop is a 10 percent loss in the baseline market share. This question was also explored by assuming no change in preharvest costs and then ratcheting down the yield impact until market shares were within 10 percent of the baseline market shares. Targets were also explored for controlling costs on existing alternatives. Costs were adjusted by increasing the cost of non-methyl bromide alternatives with no expected impact on yield to determine the increase in costs that could be borne by current users of methyl bromide, without losing market share to other producers. The results indicate that the challenges facing the scientific community in developing better alternatives are significant. To experience a seamless transition for tomato production with cost penalties the same as for the expected impacts scenario, yield impacts would have to be reduced from 20 percent for tomatoes grown in Dade County, Florida to only nine percent. This represents a 55 percent reduction in yield loss for currently identified next best alternatives. Yield losses in other producing areas of Florida would have to decline 60 percent, from the 10 percent expected yield impact to only four percent. The challenge to keep Florida producers competitive in pepper production is even greater. Current estimates indicate that using a Telone C17/ Devrinol herbicide combination for bell pepper production in Florida will reduce yields 15 percent. Those impacts need to be reduced to one percent before Florida can experience a seamless transition for pepper production. The challenge to developing alternatives for double cropping systems is also significant. Current estimates for cucumbers, squash and watermelons grown as second crops to tomatoes and bell peppers indicate a 15 percent reduction in yields for these second crops. Those yield impacts must be reduced to three percent before a seamless transition is experienced by producers using double cropping systems in Florida. Developing better alternatives is also paramount to strawberry producers. Current estimates indicate that a switch to Telone C17/Devrinol herbicide combination in Florida will result in a 15 percent decline in expected yields. Yields in California are expected to decline 20 percent when Chloropicrin is used as an alternative to methyl bromide. The model indicates that a seamless transition is impossible for strawberry production since expected increases in preharvest costs in California ($653 per acre) with no yield impact will result in California losing more than 10 percent of its existing market share. The model also was evaluated to determine the yield impacts that were sustainable if alternatives are developed with no change in preharvest costs. The results indicate that vegetable producers could sustain only 20 percent of the currently estimated impacts on yield before causing significant changes in market share that deny a seamless transition. A seamless transition in strawberry production will require that these yield reductions be lowered to only five percent for California and Florida in order for California producers to experience a seamless transition. The model was also used to determine how much growers could increase preharvest costs with no impact on yields in order to experience a seamless transition away from methyl bromide use. The results indicate that growers of vegetables could experience a preharvest cost increase of only 3.5 percent before impacts on market share were larger than that allowable for a seamless transition. Preharvest costs could increase by only five percent for strawberries (without any impact on yields) for producers in California to experience a seamless transition. These results indicate that the challenge is significant in attempting to mitigate the impact a ban on methyl bromide will have on U.S. growers of fresh vegetables and strawberries. New technologies that reduce yield impacts and control costs will be significant in mitigating these impacts.
Impact of a Methyl Bromide Ban on the U.S. Vegetable Industry 9 Limitations of the Analysis The model used in this analysis included those crops that use methyl bromide in their current production systems and those crops that compete with those users. As such, the model does not account for those users who are potential entrants to the market as conditions of competitiveness change. This precaution is particularly true for strawberries. Mexico has been a shipper of fresh strawberries to U.S. markets and has been unable to keep pace with the advances in technology that have been experienced in California and Florida. If methyl bromide is banned with no better alternatives than are known today, there would be opportunities for Mexico to enter this market and become a major shipper of strawberries. This would increase the impact on California producers and would likely have a negative effect on strawberry production in Florida. Further study needs to be done on the Mexican strawberry industry to determine its competitiveness in fresh strawberries and its potential for taking significant market share in U.S. markets. A second precaution that must be noted in this analysis concerns the assumptions used to solve the model. The impact of a methyl bromide ban will be determined by the impacts that alternatives will have on costs, yields, and market windows. The USDA workshops were an attempt to determine those alternatives that growers, researchers, and environmental activists believe have potential for this industry. Further research needs to be conducted on alternatives to accurately determine impacts on cost and productivity (yield) and on the changes in market windows for crops that undergo significant changes in production practices. Changes in market windows in marketing these crops will significantly impact competitiveness and the allocation of production across regions. Again, more information needs to be generated to fully understand these impacts. Need for Further Research The results of this research demonstrate the importance of methyl bromide to U.S. producers supplying fresh vegetables to North American markets. The impacts were determined for the industry based on production levels for the 1993/94 production season. That season was chosen for two reasons. First, the 1993/94 season was the last season before the 1995 freeze was imposed on methyl bromide use by the Montreal Protocol. Second, the 1993/94 production season was the last normal season experienced by U.S. growers of fresh vegetables before the effects of NAFTA and the large peso devaluation that followed (Van Sickle et al., 1996). Dumping practices used by Mexican producers of fresh tomatoes distorted the market in 1995 and 1996 (VanSickle, 1997) and constrained efforts to model economic forces during this period. The industry has undergone several changes since the freeze was imposed on methyl bromide use in 1995. Significant production changes have occurred as Mexican producers adopted new technologies. The imposition of the suspension agreement has also altered the economic forces in the market (VanSickle, 1997). The Montreal Protocol imposes a 25 percent reduction in methyl bromide use for developed countries in 1999. That reduction has been implemented with production constraints placed on methyl bromide producers who are allocating their stock to methyl bromide users (e.g., vegetable producers). Changes in economic forces have led to a significant downsizing on the part of the fresh vegetable industry that uses methyl bromide for soil fumigation purposes. This is demonstrated by the decline in acreage of fresh tomatoes planted in Florida from 50,600 acres in all of Florida in 1993/94 to 37,500 acres planted in 1996/97 (Florida Agricultural Statistics Service, 1998). The effects of these changes in economic forces led to the decline in methyl bromide use that made the 1999 reduction appear seamless. The next step in the Montreal Protocol schedule is the second 25 percent reduction in methyl bromide use in 2001 (equaling a total 50 percent reduction from 1991 baseline levels), another 20 percent in 2003 (a 70 percent reduction from 1991 baseline levels) and a complete ban in 2005. These scheduled phaseouts in 2001, 2003, and 2005 are likely to have much greater impacts on
Impact of a Methyl Bromide Ban on the U.S. Vegetable Industry 10 producers than the phaseout imposed in 1999. These phaseouts need to be studied for the impacts on producers and mechanisms that could be used to help vegetable producers deal with these phaseouts. Deepak et al. (in press) evaluated mechanisms for phasing out methyl bromide given the 2001 phaseout schedule. UNEP (1998) outlined a broader set of mechanisms that could be used to phase out ozone depleting substances. Those mechanisms include command and control measures, market mechanisms, voluntary approaches, and public awareness campaigns. Those mechanisms need to be evaluated for their potential to be used with methyl bromide and the scheduled phaseouts in 2001, 2003, and 2005. The phase out of methyl bromide may be much less seamless in 2001, 2003, and 2005 unless the impacts of alternatives to methyl bromide are reduced significantly. Further work needs to be completed to better understand these impacts. A multi-disciplinary approach to studying alternatives for methyl bromide should be pursued to assess their potential for providing a seamless transition. The USDA meetings, which were organized to gain input from a variety of sources, was an attempt to understand the problems facing this important industry. Those meetings provided a forum for debating the potential for alternative production practices, but the opinions presented did not always rely on scientific data that could be used to accurately measure impacts. The meetings did provide useful data for evaluation of alternatives, but further work should be completed by multi-disciplinary research teams that will coordinate the data collection for future evaluations. References California Cooperative Extension Service. "Vegetable Production Budgets." University of California at Davis, 1995. Deepak, M.S., C. Brewster and T. Spreen. "An Economic Analysis of the Impact of Pesticide Bans on the United States Fresh Tomato Industry" in The Importance of Pesticides and other Pest Management Practices in U.S. Tomato Production, R. Michael Davis, G. Hamilton, W. Lanini and T. Spreen, Appendix C, NAPIAP Report #1-CA-98 (1999). Deepak, M.S., Thomas H. Spreen, and John J. VanSickle. "Environmental Externalities and International Trade: The Case of Methyl Bromide." Flexible Incentives: A Unifying Framework for Policy Analysis. (1999): 139-156. Florida Agricultural Statistics Service. "Florida Agricultural Statistics Vegetable Summary 1996-97." Orlando, Florida. 1998. Lynch, Lori. "Agricultural Trade and Environmental Concerns: Three Essays Exploring Pest Control, Regulations, and Environmental Issues." Ph.D. dissertation. Univ. Cal., Berkeley. 1996. McCarl, B.A. and T.H. Spreen. 1980. "Price Endogenous Mathematical Programming Models as a Tool for Sector Analysis." Amer. J. Agr.. Econ. 62: 87-102. Peter, Mark A. and T.H. Spreen. 1989. Price Endogenous Mathematical Programming Models and Integrability: An Alternative Approach." Amer. J. Agr. Econ. 71: 1342. Scott, S.W. International Competition and Demand in the United States Fresh Winter Vegetable Industry." Unpublished M.S. Thesis, University of Florida, 1991. Smith, S.A. and T.G. Taylor. "Production Costs for Selected Florida Vegetables, 1993-1994." Circ. No.1146, Florida Coop. Ext. Service, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, 1995. Spreen, T. H., J. J. VanSickle, A. E. Moseley, M.S. Deepak, and L. Mathers. "Use of Methyl Bromide and the Economic Impact of its Proposed Ban on the Florida Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Industry." Univ. Flor. Tech. Bull. 898. 1995. Texas Cooperative Extension Service. "Cost of Producing Peppers." Texas A&M University, College Station, 1993. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). 1997 Report on the Economic Viability of Methyl Bromide Alternatives. 1997.
Impact of a Methyl Bromide Ban on the U.S. Vegetable Industry 11 United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). 1998 Assessment Report of the UNEP TEAP Economics Options Committee. 1998. U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). "Briefing Book: USDA/ERS Methyl Bromide Alternatives Workshop. March 17&18, 1998. Orlando, FL." 1998a. U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). "Briefing Book: USDA/ERS Methyl Bromide Alternatives Workshop. June 10&11, 1998. Sacramento, CA." 1998b. VanSickle, John J. "A Compromise in the Winter Fresh Tomato Dispute." Flor. J. International Law 11 (1997): 399-408. VanSickle, John J., Daniel Cantliffe, Emil Belibasis, Gary Thompson and Norm Oebker. "Competition in the U.S. Winter Fresh Vegetable Industry." USDA ERS Ag. Econ. Rep. 691. July 1994. VanSickle, John J., Thomas H. Spreen and Kenrick Jordan. "An Economic Analysis of the Impact of Devaluation of the Peso and Adverse Weather in Florida on the North American Winter Fresh Vegetable Market." Paper presented at the Tri-National Research Symposium 'NAFTA and Agriculture: Is the Experiment Working?' Nov. 2, 1996. Welch, Norman C. "Strawberry Sample Costs 1996." University of California Agricultural Extension. 1996. Appendix The North American fresh vegetable market model was developed by modifying the North American winter vegetable vegetable market model developed by Spreen et al. (1995). The North American fresh vegetable market can be characterized as a spatial equilibrium problem. The model is limited to those commodities that use methyl bromide as a pre-plant fumigant. To mathematically state the model, let i index the demand regions, j = 1,....,J k index the commodities, k = 1,....,k m index the months, m = 1,....,12 Many producers in florida use double cropping systems in which two different commodities are produced on the same acre. Let Ii index the cropping systems employed in supply region i, Ii = 1,....Li. Define Wii = number of acres planted to cropping system Ii in region i. Let dlikm = per acre yield of commodity k in month m from cropping system Ii. So that Ulikm = dlikm Wii is the production of commodity k in region I and month m for cropping system Ii. Let c1ii = per-acre preharvest product cost of cropping system Ii. Let c1ii = per-acre preharvest product cost of coppring system Ii, so that c1ii Wii is the total preharvest production cost associated with cropping sytem Ii. The total supply of commodity k from supply region I in month m is the sum of the production of the commodity from each cropping system. Let c2ik = per-unit harvest and postharvest cost associated with commodity k in region i. The parameter c2ik includes harvest cost, costs for hauling to the packing plant, packing costs, and shipment to a distribution point. It should be noted that postharvest costs are assumed to be invariant to the month of harvest. Then c2ik Zikm is the post cost associated with commodity k produced in the region I and month m.
Impact of a Methyl Bromide Ban on the U.S. Vegetable Industry 12 The demand side of the model is delineated by defining Pjkm = ajkm bjkm Qjkm as the inverse demand for commodity k in demand region k in month m. Qjkm is the quantity of commodity k consumed in demand region j in month m and parameters ajkm and bjkm are both assumed to be non-negative. Let Xijkm= quantity of commodity k shipped from supply region i to demand region j in month m; c3ijkm = per-unit transportation cost from supply region I to demand region j for commodity k in month m. With these definitions, the quadratic programming model can be written as Figure 1. subject to Figure 2. The optimal solution to the model provides the equilibrium consumption of each commodity in every month in each demand region (Qjkm), the optimal level of shipments between each supply area and each demand region (Xijkm), the optimal production of each cropping system by production area (Wii), and the quantity of each commodity produced in each supply region by month (Zikm). The optimal dual solution provides market clearing prices in each demand area by month and commodity. This model incorporates a fixed proportions technology to generate supply. Although the production functions used in the model follow the fixed proportions assumption, the supply curves generated by the model are not perfectly elastic. The upward sloping supply curves result, in part, because of increasing transportation costs to market as production from a particular supply region expands. This is the implicit supply model as discussed by McCarl and spreen (1980) and Peters and Spreen (1989). The other important simplification imposed on the model is that all parameters are assumed to be non-stochastic.
Impact of a Methyl Bromide Ban on the U.S. Vegetable Industry 13 Table 1. Estimated monthly demand flexibilities by market and crop. Market Tomatoes Peppers Cucumbers Squash Eggplant Melon Strawberries New York -0.240-0.441-0.290-0.252-0.160-0.250-0.250 Chicago -0.280-0.259-0.382-0.259-0.170-0.250-0.225 Atlanta -0.277-0.335-0.252-0.295-0.160-0.250-0.255 Los Angeles -0.338 -1.012 -0.253 -0.2545 -0.150 -0.250 -0.250 Source: Scott (1991). Table 2. Estimated preharvest production costs and yields by cropping system and production area and cost yield impacts. Baseline Yield Impacts Location/Cropping System Preharvest Costs Postharvest Costs Yieldsg Cost Impact Expected Low High ($/acre)($/unit)(units/acre) ($/acre)(------------% Decline------------) (First and Second Crops) Floridaa Dade County Tomatoes 6,1074.351300-24201025 Squash 2,0425.152750 000 Palm Beach County Tomatoes 6,3004.3213003310520 Tomatoes/Cucumbers 7,4004.32/5.061300/4007210/155/720/30 Peppers 4,9953.791000397151020 Peppers/Cucumbers 6,3803.79/5/061000/40043715/1510/720/30 Eggplant 5,2484.26150032715730 Southwest Florida Fall Tomatoes 6,2724.3113003610520 Spring Tomatoes 6,7064.3113003610520 Tomatoes/Cucumbers 7,5614.11/4.941300/400-6110/155/720/30 Tomatoes/Squash 7,3804.11/3.941300/275010/155/720/30 Tomatoes/Melons 8,0364.71/3.051300/320-3610/155/720/30 Peppers 5,1134.9510005215020 Peppers/Cucumbers 7,2724.95/4.941000/40011515/150/720/30 Peppers/Melon 7,3044.95/3.051000/32014015/150/720/30 Cucumbers 3,2744.944000 000 Squash 2,0484.132750 000
Impact of a Methyl Bromide Ban on the U.S. Vegetable Industry 14 Table 2. Estimated preharvest production costs and yields by cropping system and production area and cost yield impacts. Baseline Yield Impacts Location/Cropping System Preharvest Costs Postharvest Costs Yieldsg Cost Impact Expected Low High ($/acre)($/unit)(units/acre) ($/acre)(------------% Decline------------) (First and Second Crops) West Central Fall Tomatoes 5,9594.251100-8410520 Spring Tomatoes 5,8004.251250-8310520 Tomatoes/Cucumbers 6,8824.25/5.041100/40025410/155/720/30 Tomatoes/Squash 6,9024.25/3.941100/27525510/155/720/30 Tomatoes/Melons 7,0804.25/2.851100/30024410/155/720/30 Fall Peppers 4,8134.20950251151020 Spring Peppers 5,1064.20950-41151020 Peppers/Squash 6,2104.20/3.94950/27510315/1510/720/30 Peppers/Melons 6,1404.20/2.85950/3009215/1510/720/30 Cucumbers 3,2745.044000 000 Squash 2,0483.952750 000 Strawberries 7,8693.712100-71151020 California Tomatoesb 3,4954.3010800 000 Northern Californiac Strawberries 12,1134.271943653201030 Southern Californiac Strawberries 12,1134.273374653201030 Texas Peppersd 2,2063.956000 000 Virginia/Marylandb Tomatoes 3,8804.266900 000 South Carolinab Tomatoes 4,6005.5210600 000 Alabama/Tennesseeb Tomatoes 3,4903.866300 000
Impact of a Methyl Bromide Ban on the U.S. Vegetable Industry 15 Table 2. Estimated preharvest production costs and yields by cropping system and production area and cost yield impacts. Baseline Yield Impacts Location/Cropping System Preharvest Costs Postharvest Costs Yieldsg Cost Impact Expected Low High ($/acre)($/unit)(units/acre) ($/acre)(------------% Decline------------) (First and Second Crops) Mexico Sinaloae Tomatoes 3,7204.4511000 000 Peppers 3,0104.427600 000 Cucumbers 2,1405.185500 000 Squash 1,0107.652200 000 Eggplant 3,5954.7012300 000 Baja Californiaf Tomatoes 3,860 5.56 1800 0 0 0 0 a Production costs for baseline cropping systems were adapted from Smith and Taylor (1995). b Production costs adapted from Deepak et al (1998). c Adapted from Welch (1996). d Texas Cooperative Extension Service (1993). e Adapted from VanSickle et al (1994). f California Cooperative Extension Service (1995). g Yields: tomato (25-lb cartons), pepper (28-lb bushels), cucumber (55-lb bushels), squash (42-lb flats), eggplant (33-lb bushels), strawberry (12-lb flats), and watermelon (100-lb units). Table 3. Planted acreage in the baseline model and with a ban on methyl bromide. Crop/Area Baseline Expected Impact High Impact Low Impact (-------------------------Acres-------------------------) Tomatoes Florida Dade County 5,145 0 0 0 Palm Beach County 7,977 0 0 0 Southwest 19,43531,96526,74031,946 West Central 17,20813,57311,59214,738 California 34,98934,66534,40934,711 Alabama/Tennessee 1,7921,0261,602923 South Carolina 6,1447,0456,9127,069
Impact of a Methyl Bromide Ban on the U.S. Vegetable Industry 16 Table 3. Planted acreage in the baseline model and with a ban on methyl bromide. Crop/Area Baseline Expected Impact High Impact Low Impact (-------------------------Acres-------------------------) Virginia/Maryland 4,6964,5854,7254,560 Mexico Sinaloa 40,85646,94754,25545,630 Baja California 4,494 4,426 4,940 4,514 TOTAL 142,736144,232144,175144,091 Peppers Florida Palm Beach County 14,3103,0662,0673,817 West Central 9,4485,2034,2325,934 Texas 5,15612,42812,53912,241 Mexico Sinaloa 13,339 23,348 25,019 21,974 TOTAL 42,25344,04543,85743,966 Cucumbers Florida Palm Beach County 7,2763,0662,0663,860 West Central 7,8397,7087,4767,802 Southwest 3843,4131,7093,593 Mexico Sinaloa 10,248 10,600 11,224 10,347 TOTAL 25,74724,78722,47525,602 Squash Florida Dade County 2,8673,2563,6702,956 Southwest 9,44810,03310,1659,944 Mexico Sinaloa 11,062 11,083 11,218 11,070 TOTAL 23,37724,37225,05323,970 Eggplant Florida Palm Beach County 3,5901,305 01,914 Mexico Sinaloa 2,605 4,503 5,336 4,174 TOTAL 6,1955,8085,3366,088
Impact of a Methyl Bromide Ban on the U.S. Vegetable Industry 17 Table 3. Planted acreage in the baseline model and with a ban on methyl bromide. Crop/Area Baseline Expected Impact High Impact Low Impact (-------------------------Acres-------------------------) Watermelon Florida Southwest 9,60318,52014,86618,408 West Central 9,250 0 3,008 0 TOTAL 18,85318,52017,87418,408 Strawberries Florida 6,1778,30210,0277,121 California Northern 8,949 0 01,850 Southern 11,055 10,717 8,290 11,539 TOTAL 26,181 19,019 18,317 20,510 Table 4. Baseline production and percentage changes in production of crops in moving to a methyl bromide ban. Crop Baseline Expected Impact High Impact Low Impact (1,000 units) (----------------------%----------------------) Tomatoes 164,961(2.40)(6.30)(0.59) Peppers 36,518(12.34)(14.00)(10.75) Cucumbers 11,838(6.10)(13.64)(2.14) Squash 5,820(2.44)(6.63)(0.48) Eggplant 9,040(20.31)(27.39)(13.66) Watermelon 5,849(13.87)(32.26)(6.34) Strawberries 67,662 (35.34) (46.16) (23.54) Parentheses contain negative numbers.
Impact of a Methyl Bromide Ban on the U.S. Vegetable Industry 18 Table 5. Baseline average wholesale prices and percentage changes in wholesale prices across all markets under a methyl bromide ban. Crop Wholesale Price Expected Impact High Impact Low Impact ($/Unit)(--------------------% Increase--------------------) Tomatoes 9.100.872.170.32 Peppers 9.604.525.604.00 Cucumbers 10.981.443.300.49 Squash 13.840.772.040.16 Eggplant 9.674.636.702.75 Watermelon 14.496.3715.752.71 Strawberries 11.78 9.40 12.03 6.20 Table 6. Baseline revenues and changes in revenues from a ban on methyl bromide by crop and area. Crop/Area Baseline Revenues Expected Impact High Impact Low Impact ($1,000) ( change in revenues, $1,000 ) Tomatoes Florida 561,427.8(2,564.0)(4,587.5)(2,199.4) California 276,796.8(2,5645.0)(4,587.5)(2,199.4) Alabama/Tennessee 10,615.8(4,538.3)(1,129.1)(5,152.6) South Carolina 64,269.29,427.68,032.99,678.9 Virginia/Maryland 32,057.0(756.5)197.0(928.3) Mexico Sinaloa 352,155.952,495.8115,492.241,144.8 Baja 60,152.5 (978.2) (7,478.4) 193.0 TOTAL 1,357,475.0(15,721.1)(61,270.6)(1,738.9) Peppers Florida 204,518.8(134,782.5)(152,829.7)(119,856.6) Texas 23,596.733,274.533,781.132,420.4 Mexico Sinaloa 84,960.0 63,748.7 74,389.5 54,994.9 TOTAL 313,075.5(37,759.3)(44,659.0)(32,441.3)
Impact of a Methyl Bromide Ban on the U.S. Vegetable Industry 19 Table 6. Baseline revenues and changes in revenues from a ban on methyl bromide by crop and area. Crop/Area Baseline Revenues Expected Impact High Impact Low Impact ($1,000) ( change in revenues, $1,000 ) Cucumbers Florida 65,765.4(6,196.1)(16,040.5)(1,886.4) Mexico Sinaloa 51,130.7 1,754.2 4,870.4 492.8 TOTAL 116,896.1(4,441.9)(11,170.1)(1,393.7) Squash Florida 36,060.9(192.2)(1,503.1) (11.1) Mexico Sinaloa 24,431.5 17,793.6 25,605.5 14,705.4 TOTAL 66,215.6(9,856.2)(16,178.6)(5,375.4) Eggplant Florida 41,784.1(27,649.8)(41,784.1)(20,080.9) Mexico Sinaloa 24,431.5 17,793.6 25,605.5 14,705.4 TOTAL 66,215.6(9,856.2)(16,178.6)(5,375.5) Watermelon Florida 63,323.6 (3,437.4) (8,693.9) (1,896.0) TOTAL 63,323.6(3,437.4)(8,693.9)(`,896.0) Strawberries Florida 94,565.022,682.843,313.78,657.4 California Northern 182,648.8(182,648.8)(182,648.8)(145,206.3) Southern 293,196.1 (32,862.9) (103,747.2) 3,726.6 TOTAL 570,409.9 (192,828.9) (243,082.3) (132,822.2) Parentheses contain negative numbers.
Impact of a Methyl Bromide Ban on the U.S. Vegetable Industry 20 Table 7. Baseline revenues and changes in revenues from a methyl bromide ban. Producing Area Baseline Revenues Expected Impacts High Impacts Low Impacts ($1,000) ( change in revenues, $1,000) Florida 1,067,446(218,382.7)(349,335.3)(179,548.7) California 752,641(218,075.7)(290,983.5)(143,679.1) Texas 23,597 33,274.533,781.132,420.4 Alabama/Tennessee10,616 (4,538.4)(1,129.1)(5,152.6) South Carolina 64,269 9,427.68,032.99,678.9 Virginia/Maryland 32,057 (756.5)197.0 (928.3) Mexico 602,622134,871.7213,299.2111,552.7 Total 2,533,248 (264,179.4) (366,137.7) (175,656.9) Parentheses contain negative numbers. Table 8. Loss in consumer surplus from bans on methyl bromide. Scenario Consumer surplus loss Expected impact $111.68 million High impact $176.36 million Low impact $66.56 million