Ian Parker Collection of East African Wildlife Conservation: The Ivory Trade

Material Information

Ian Parker Collection of East African Wildlife Conservation: The Ivory Trade
Uniform Title:
The Raw Ivory Trade, 1979-1987
Parker, Ian.S.C. ( Author, Primary )
Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) ( Conference )
Publication Date:


Preferred Citation:
Parker, I. [Ian] S.C. 1989. The Raw Ivory Trade, 1979-1987. A consultant report for parties to the Convention on Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora through the Secretary General. [Second world ivory trade study for CITES]. Available:

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I ': q.-'.a

A :. ThA'T R P-i... FOR --
_" :-- SPECIES OF yI"LD F14


TSIE ^: ^. V-O^V T/-t- TE

Pi 7- Tr^*


Ac Ik: now 1 edgerments


Customs Data; The raw ivory Trade

Cites Data

The ia Permit S Wern

C,'rIiitsnv ot n Customs & Cites Data

Alternative Cauise of Elephant Decline

Econo 'ics If luences

Di scujssion

Concl usions & Reco.mmendatio,.'s

Refe rence5

:, -Iend i x:<


li I! (,l
" 48

"" 49
.. .. ,-.'~-! '


'1 C~ustoms records, data fr om CITE^S annual repor k ari the'. oypeid
verification system ae earned and it is shown that the Custo
records provide a su-,perior,, source of data MAP; wi -o meask e the ra
ivory trade's*- volume and value,
2 it i c t th measures in.......ti*,tu-te 3 d under,," CITES, to control .-r, W
monito r the international ivory trad-e have a.leo .draa.ti.. i.,.y, Th,
trade has ;, neither been controlled nor mc monitored ,

3, Reasons for the fai lures are presentedd: pe-ernen n them s
chronic short i ge of funding, a'nd t:he failure of ties i'n Afric ,
EuropO:,p Ncoth America and Asia (with the singul.a. pion of c oi g
ong) to fulfil their treaty obligations tO report exp :edi ti;ous'ly ancd
accurately., However, this has been reinforced !.by t J *sc: olc ep t' i.4os of w1.hy
eh -'hants decline, failure Qo appreciate that it is a far more general
Sphemno.. l thtk effects,: tiany large mammal s, a ,.majority of. which do not
pr-co u e h ig,-hl ,y pic: ed-.._'4., t" p r-k, ai-i the ,i:u;. : .. .. n-. ;-', hie per-sorneiF.J
chosen to monitor the trade, I't is also po-n,,d out t;-t; the quota.
system+. wa- phoney in that it imposed no ...... eith..r pro..ducers or

4..... Evl de--lce t s- pr',esented>H .. .. ... t show,, t!"L.A elep,:han't c'lk i ne 05! not a ......cent-=
phenomenon, and that elephants in [Eahi.stern Africa had lost4 the majorityy of
their 1925- r-anges by 1975; i ,e, dtha$ ecli .ines of the past kWo decades
have not bee"n" i anoalus, They c uld have b. pf "e'd ie d- i 1f inforat. "io'
that was readily available- in the I.' &, and "l9GOs, bNt which until no'4.'-,
has been overlooked, it is adduced tchat the p-i..ary reason for the
failure to. c' $ c ronserv e lephants in Af :ri a nat i o-a. parkh ,. is :not
poaching, but grossly inadequate fun.'. This is ams tho: case out-ide
the parks, though in '-.uc h r'eas. under "'-- f unldi' i n s eclipse d by a
fundamentally f l a.Ed po,.,icy which deb.ars a f rom acc ess -to t -
re source ,

5, Because of these factors, 'lore was expected of' CITES i controlling the
ivory trade than 'was reasonable,

6., It is concluded that a.= far m'iore simple system of m[ .o4nitor'ing and
regulating t he ivory trade is called ., for i Ci! ; is to fu.fil its ;oMAy
practical role as an aid to other con..ser'vation measures, Sch a sy-stem-.r is.,
proposed,. Its basic element is that all raw ivor'y-- epord out of Afri:a
sh-ould L be sent dire,-ctly from governments to a single auction fl oor in a
connmier country (Hong Kong ) andc that private ex Enforce-ient of th system would den'penl on '. 1 -i4'_ co0.11r'14 i' .. ba'nningq a-."
raw ivory Timports except those coming off the auctionin floor, The v'olum"e "of
international trade would be controlled by placing a limit on the volume of
ivory that would be eeived on e rivdoth auction floor in any .year. The au4ction4
floor would be governed by a Bioard appointed by both producers and

7, The auction. floor woul.: big all' permit iss-uance and the physical
presene of the ivor covered to "ete arid greatly sil, ,iify i ,.

the auctioned ivoty would coxpris, he sum of the ivoy lea.y expotd
out of Africa, However,, if an au::il.iary system was required, )t i
recommended that Customs statistics be adopted a-s 'he principal data sou rc .
on tIhe gro.,nds of their proven superiority oveir CITE: da--.ta produced over
the past ten years,

Parties to .the Convention on internati onal Trade in Endangered Species

inception, they have debate! t;he issue, They hoped that in applying
Conventio-n rules to restrict international ivory, he tnd woul
be rectified, or t least ameli orated, Yet d.pte TO Conv..n.tio little
from the field .% hat compl iancp" with CITES' procedures has
rrn I ui ef n c IJ t ,4I if :At-P ....- .

effectively monitored, there would have Merl Zone .;areotsuha

This consultancy stems from continued concern over the parentet lack
of knowledge about the ivory tradc, At the last Conference-, of the Parties
to CITES held in Canada in 1' 1 it was resolved (Conf, doc, 6:;2) that the
Secretariat should initiate a study of the i'ernal or intra- fricanl ivor
tra.:e, This is c.urious :it s widely cntnt.e d hat o,.,ersea.' deI.i
provides the greatest incentive to take elephant tusks in Africa, A logical
presumtion for the lack of any specific call to a.lso moment this
intrY= -cont; trade im ;-., : Wine '::ri.[,li,_vm t a; # w s .;1e d
adequately monitored and controlled, -lIf so ;Itheyl 4"Tre gaeyflsnom
for,: as : J, I shall show. thi{s w.,as not i the c:as=e,

CITES' document Conf, 6:'!2 specifically requested intra-African
tud_-y and mc-ade no mention. co the brod l er interati'onio1al situation, However,
when agreeing to undertake th-e study, I was granted wide oiscretion in h-owA,
/. 3 h .-.I-, .. *t'. ~ t ]&" I 4'. ,'LJP~ ~k r ['r,.1 'c cIil' ',, : T'. C14'; OcSi %g~_ ;'I i I .]C. ,n :: c," c rfi,- I1.. .. 1l1I,,[
T conducted it a'. nd i-nterp.reted the spirit., if- noYit the workingg of WE:',
resolution, Philosophically, there were two approaches to the issue; (M) to
pa.y strict heed to the resolution's wording and confine fay researches and

'.. 2 Vt'4 f1 C1l- f ..iY' !L J H'b Vh i'f'' aI-'- 2:Y CpJ: 41' 4 "1S14 h4, 1 ."
,-nmment entirely to the ivory trade within Africa or, &Di) to try and place
what goes on within the continent in a more holistic over vie,-.,

The first may have been appropriate Off th-e in-ernatonl ivory trade
.......... I rcll'riA r 4i4 f dl' 3'V ', II c-I :P I.' : .:,- 41[ i 14111a ~YI : II
wa:s a vir i)'n, mysterious field, Had this ..... .. so ....r .an. ove ..i
thro'-"-5 regional, s'.t-!. -st '1ep, processes has .a basic, commo-n'o' sense, :But the'
international ivory trade is not undocumented,. Within Africa many people
know a great deal about it, That they have been overlooked and ignored is,
i itself f, an issue, of interest but. outside th- e .sop o ,f thi._s rep.o'rt,
Suffice it tha.t pretended ig ace ..for all tha it is tanna :,to t.he
Wildlife con 'suI tantI -- seemed i.nap, propriate,

I have opted for the broad approach h, Wha:' goes on outide Africa doe-;s
in.fl uence ivory trading withili the conrtinent, shall thus try to bring i
'.ast description of tIhe international ivory trade 'i'arker '197.,.) up to date"....' +. .
in order that the incra-African coerce may be seen against -this
bac.kcioth, My first goal isi, to give idea.- of basic icvry rodcin betwe-=.en 1979- 'anrd ]19-87 -a,- th!"is :is t+ e trade...... pa a e e t a..ll-i e
most closely, associated with elephant decline if .......
exists between the two,

.1 ".,:TR- -.',*-. 77 1 CD

In as-sembl ing the data on ivory product hav a lso tr ied to assess::
CITES influence on the ,process and identify successes, failures and their

Hoping that CIT-ES Fro,.due will the decline in elphant
numbers rests on belief that hunting to suppl..y t.lde demand is the trend's
principal caure; an idea that has some .-,n-,or.t (,Uf Pilgram, & Western 1986),
if., however, this is not the case; if there are other contributory or even
dominant influences -. for which there is also sV!ome' e.vie'nce (PFairker' &,
"aiham' 1989 and in 'press) the n suc:h hopes in "ITES p"ocedures will have
been misplaced, 1n objective overview, particularly of the i-vory .ade
itself and its role in elephant demise, is called for to verify ass. ions
about causes, effects and applropriate or altei native actions, I sh.a: I
a,.ddress this issue

The final section of this -,report contains mr- r4eco',Tmme'rndations on future
policy on regulating the ivory trade for CITES,

S sources of informIation on the raw ivory trade are:

journalists, administrators, and research workers all of
wh,,m, d.. r- ctly or indi.r"ectly-I haveI4 -' 1 ,* .. .Vin wi:th

elephants and ivory, and the lterature;

(i) personal biological. and historical. researches, together
with -experience in both conservation and ivory trainn,

S(iv) data from. the Pa..rties' to C. ; annual reports which in
this report I shall refer "to as CITES' daI.ta .andl,

(v) Data from: permits issued for the export and import of rav,-
under the African states' "quota" systeN concern ing raw
ivo ry export its,

Data tables, being numerous, are presented at the end of the r 'ort to
facilitate reading continuity,

This study, is paal. -to and overlaps a simiar,,ndertaki-g being
conducted by Profe'ssor David Pearce of the London Environmental Economfiics
Centre, It was commissioned by the "'Ivory Trade Review Group" an
un",offici:0ial body established jointly by several national, ad international.
conservation organizations, At the behest of CITES' Secretary .General. orn
the one han.d and Professor Pearce's sponsors on the ,-oth, as well. -:as in
our own mutual interests, we have maintained-f lo.s-e? contact t thl-oughot,
indeed, we discussed proucing a combined, co-authored, .aport, Given our
different -and objectives, however, this has not been possible,
Nevertheless, subject to further data which, -rofessor .o
obtain, we are in broad agreement with the aggregate figures presented here
for overall African ivory ,.duction',

Appendix A: of this report is an Ind ependent .analss of the southernn
African ivory trade undertaken by Mr Rowan M::arti.n of the Zimbabw.e
De~otiLment o.f Nat1ional Pks .ild]n Management an my subl-co.nsultant, Q,

somr.e ,.egree it overlaps with my con findings:., but there are milinor

resolve them for two reasons, As they standJ, they 3ustrate the inevitab,
outore of basically crude data collected and interpreted fro. different
approaches: it is a point which needs to be made Rs the nature of the ivory
trade within Africa defies precise measurement, And we have had neither the
time nor resources to discuss our results,

A second Appendix by Mr T'hor Friedlei n oni .vo"y .trae Q in Cots-
0 1%hovoie ,was. planned,.,.- to ,c:omplemen it... M art~in's .u .: .....he rn:: Af;-ic-a, For,:
..... r. contr .1 Xh 'a, y :, :nd, i .- r-es. s
have to appear independently,

A companion to this report-, whose ,enesui lav, i. he nee!.J to quick-y
,rovide CITE.S with ans ide ranging an overvie-,, o elephant d-ec. ie a
p 'ssi.le, is O-r Granie Cauc ey CSIRO Consul tancy F'-eport to CITES (A
'Projection of ivory ,P'.rod.. uct ii and ,fi f.s tih '5 o i. Conservation of
African Eleph;ants') it shoud be ead' : ]. oc -i Oi'-s to broaden

'The fi st draft of mirc...y i 1 3 _` to

csc ~ i~i ... ......-_, ,'" ,, 5.' i','k :: ,osr 4 -.'35i' 1):t4 '1 K'te 'c[ $o 5".;' C [ :S ::er' :..-'- 'V.:-..:i;
and, through the the .......'a Conseratio o-l n C: ',r'1
Wildlife Traded... f' o i.-ani'rio Uni.4' for criticism' ad co in!m'e!"s ",, It wons not
forthcom:ing,. andqc afer'; a three month wa,,:i.t: 1 ha::,,.; be:en ckm-q:el..[a. to prloc:eev,.:
,i-u'.... their input, This is unfortunate given the urc:)n ,_ ,A-I-I .. whih t!Tie

ei~eph:.::n i::<',Tyb .11 '., 1= :.:e p- ,.!! fl :e c ".i 4.
elehan problem isgneal preie .nd~ evenTw more> sw:' est~ 1 a:'m critical.<.-:]
of both bodieses and I woulcld like to have .onsdered "heir clefences before,
bmiyshin:i m, findings, Already the delay inflicted has reduced this
omen's valoufe; if extendhe further ite wil be on usane ,ie ..tothe.
CIT::ES:: Afican,:':t El.]ephanti: dm~king Grop,:?~:. for:, :it;s deli, vaon jh::;: ~ i n:_ j!u.] ~y' 198:9, or,
to,- the:: ]oi': ..'}: oi` t-" P'arties ::= wh:u:n" .J.;-wt housoanns "Q V t : < :'i ,: .obei
1-:9, i'n both' cases.:, the ,con ,,t ent,, needsJ to b:e a:.bso:--rbed:<: w.,e:li be.f:.:,,orehand.:.,: if :i;
i s c ::o ntrpi but.te t.o u s efu, l deb a te,

Many people have assisted me in one Way or anoLhn-r
unw'ivttinigly, in proAi.e this re ort, )t .li } i;,.' Jio,
.....dwell, Caughley, Lee h C b C Cr'si :

Martin, A-, Mini_ :i, D, Ntg-, M, Noiton-6rii n the P, Di&i: do,
FPear'ce, R, Powell, Z, Rahimrtulia, 0, Fo ::,' > K, T. Vang,
responsible for the views e:: l.-'&iice and help,

witting:l]y or-

,.in !), miibson,
1, Martin, R,
C, -; rker, D,
Theourh prsoal.y
the ]ir oy'ason"al]

The Hong Kong .o,.-,n ivory.- Manufacturers Association ..i.ted
fc itabl ishad a fund of S i upon which I ddraw to nd research
under this. consultancy that might be beyond the frenouces of- the CITES:);
Sec-'ret.ariat, All expenditure from this fund was chanld tho.,uh the
Secret-ar iat% and covered the: costs ofI D"r ,:G-ra eme C .Kley's CS-;I;Pr Con-sult'anir.
Report`. ;o CITES, Dr- 0311lly Dublin's ak;istance to Or CDr uh].ey and tr Ro5,'-i
Martin's report on the ivory trade in Southern Africa which form,"s Appendi.
1 of this r-eport!, The- Asso:c~i~ation's sup!,port i.s dee.p;!:ly a~ppreci~ated, .So, too.,
is stral ia's Commrionwealth Scientific and industrial Research
Organisation's (CS' D) assistance in banking Dr Caughley available at shoKt
not ice,

Dr" Perezu- Oliriom,, Cha.. i~rman of, C:IT",:-.;' Afr"ican.. Fi g ~ n Was,.,<,,.in,: .! .,
.David P, --hel i i Ei-A" T:./nvi2 K 1' z / '- i Dr
Esmo Marti.n Consultant to thi Wort--,ld ie F F.Kd for Nature, 'r Ro-a
Martin of the Zimbabwe Department of National PaFk's and Wildlife Manage;mient
and Mr Robe-:,rt F'owell of Reuters News Agency a.l professionally criticized
Fh ir tit Craft of this report, I am[ very ,toK the-f: for h .-ir

! Looking at- co 3 '..,.:ns of states tc- s .

k.. no .,,. N,- of its p l itic,: co :,nduc t,> a
if information on the topics is ava

productive research zand arid cul-
Ex .per ce, .as; i.n'i all h'umain f iel ds, p
e'ndf.s.-.,vou", hi.s firs "% t-. : s cton ..... ,
auponed ovethe pasict; d3,a ybeast, 1
o:verv~i~ews arle, in the~iri f i~nal,] anal..:]ys
pt :.i.'::, ,.I" .. ... 4 : ] i, 111 '4,!:::3 {. 7,'4] iL o,. 4 :

hus, goals qw'i to p arv e Anent ,'

lIE0'4 1 '-- 44 '1'-, 1v "1,~ I lSIJ .144 =!b,] ,-4'.. "14 .4.l'
a, i, t is git,- to provide canvas
Losn can be p'laced anid extend that

-,iorov o- ivorv trading, Exposingq sources may be, a s1: ient.,ic requirements,
buts it can also be ,sense lesas in wider' contexts than -sci.ence and
conservation, in some it definitely contrary to the -t of ,-I-,.d' living,

in as fa as it to me, 1 Ihl try to~ abide by4 the

1 'V 414 '. j _. 1 '- '' '' ''' ''" 441 1'4 -...'I..
1 :7 rhee factor ston the ov-rall f.rf. of ..
'within Africa',. The first .'. th'-e "',' ,v "-legal ta Ius, ver,'whe'.l ingly,

'14' and Whi l t '-is i .sy boi:-tho t s-t r. It pe14rdi 4ndte ..'.- ve i h as

berep, genoall accepted Tho.e official con sev at i record tis Anon 1925---
2] '"4 41414,-.... .: 'i 414 4 >.:4. 4'I 1 .- ] I'IY31 1114]i I 4.4,3.":. : 1 I ... '1 ,'" ~ -- 1.i'"-i ,:. -i ,'iu 'v; ~ '4,

1ditraing iv l while gnt per pin M smvn, and ase aI 1. :."

.I1 4,' Ii, 7 [ I a e.'14,I.. i ,4' 1.4.14 al1 ov1r r1 hIe'1I4 -1.:4, I',: a4 -id .IEp -4
geealstin rura comuniie' d no conide
.. ... ,.. I,.. .. ..'
97 5),

4... [ ~g!'I-:O h!i I 4 "i"I ..! i'c' ." II I''4 4. 4!.4"41. 4V. 41 : "4.4f'i;:..[ ;14; 1 4I'"'.. '4,IJ11411.4....
...... .. The latter,] o'ccu.rr.4. 1 -- ing ,., in 4.1, I:. ,, ", th.a. ar v / a e 14,i4 .
pr evenvt, t,:he. popi-ulac:,-e from;: ava, .iingi themnselives:.., ofI ,diYAO,-,-01!: n a& the ':. rR O-~,u :
can:) be ef::fectx i.vely ', !mon-op.olis.e.- ,,

freragn reouce were.-,", (and in :A., som cases' stilt:~ ar) irual
indefensible...::, .-Mie .... .. .... u u a i n unsuccessfully .:defe nde tha: .. ... _t -.;is w -her~ne v-MJ

~ ~~ -- -- --." D q-

...... (an usua.:l ly-,. I small. ) units nati .:onal] parksi<<:. (Forke -r &:', Gra7hamn 19M:'
L..ader-Williama-s I Alibon 1988),

1 UA3 1 uindamiental conflict of practical itr:;c hspeal iey

tie juropl ove-r ivory, ie pop:.,lace, in it] s ab.. da.ce and general
di~str ibut ion;, is ch Facto better able to us~e the rEsourcA!Ce and dfes 50

i:;reatly i tra degineivory would dresaolveth iory iesvt an afioe'nt, 001.
sacrifi the co c p a:.4 t. c. '' -l4e i' ..''' 1 i. ', ,.; 1. 1 .i, ".i i

iovory action issesdithavalat ac i no carean toeab contempdiiu late,
See>m~ingly, t"he pro, ble[' m i.s intpac-- tab:,-.Le, b:ut utUr.%." all el, pqx :{a'tiorr,

arenc sfiiently smaanlls. b eedlo fecieymnplsd h

envrionmento wil coninu outods trogl law.iouldth illci raovrib^ the licioti
o 9 .-The. s nd factor is ivory's tlaional v: trdtoalue ol:-o, o" nathi :ioa
:11 i ,: "'.1 l.. .: h.s s part. ,c u arlyi m t i mn Africa whos a:) 4r'"r : 4:4:,4 >- en.<:e 1.. 4c .iera

Nav litteinernaional wyakthsbeigt ilega tre oitinisrot ewe
grefatl Tin s the degreappi theoi depreas ion, ivoye.'l'ory n I 1, io an' 1i1'

currenc8),y T with sustntialpuchasing powercin haever beased given to tuper

hardlysurprissing ithato ivory ibardterehd- acausks- bordrtobecsuove ithem us,
4or:l-' *,44: I + i'. ..-ts- ..=: I'. ::D; ,I .: : II ,4'..? '44:" 4 '4 ";': I' 1', 4 '' : ..'4"j- H t0rm'.4 '[:.4t>l:. @ I ,::

1-.- 4-:l? ': '.1 1.:i 4"44 4 4:4+, ] O"' '1 h: "1.4,1144 \ i4 4.,:" '-11 :. .~'J -} "I7 t<. qC':4'.4" Il:e.,i {..:

1 1"o 4 4'' i:t.i "4Oe 4- +.: '4 ".V, 1~ a 414 ''1 4,4-4..C-,.' ", ', 1-: i '44: rY 4e::i:: 4<,,'- '4' 4 'r1'{.-" 4.)i' -Oti > {..

"o Id vee I '-' tohe economicy o probiemrs cra td biy ve--en ta is d oi....-:.
stagnant economies, itsu is, bad t. Ii 0;' "C'
41 10 ~ ~ f ..~f The" 14 'f th r fa to is 4,w'. 4 bulk 4 O va 1; e. p. 114 e, %,,' *. i n O4<4. ,2 rl~ (:'
1<.i ," 44 o 1 1I'v-',1444 "1.9..1.4-4:. l 114..l' 4E. -.,1 : ':-', 4 44=.. ', 4,-,- .= ". I,':,< ::7-,? L:i '.9-, 44,- ,-

f a r i ,- r y .o b used 4> t9 "i de t1hef) 1 aw, i t w41 "4'"; r :. Lt '-- ''1. ., t4,- 1 t- f
GO 4" 4 I 1 MC1iV 1.4 j.S4 n a.o'i ea 1- .-ne rl. Ye' t, w.h n -J r', 4.t.! -n'4 4 '. 1, i'' t 'E '' T: 'I.

of, c:ompra. ble-::-:.i:>: ,valu but ... .)-; l~ess..-er bulk.:, The '.tr:a,::ii,:ona.l:i soluio..,n to this M :".,:
11 :. b.4 'i n7!:".2.." legal; le.g:ality b ng t:he a"qu- .it -i on >", an ,t M INN

J, -.p t .. I s f a 4' h ,m o t: v c4 a n t1 9 I .- ert c Q "f11e + I ;'D. f. id,4 : 4to'b'.c:7
4':, W. HC4f 41". O y I''4'ljl'. '14,1' .. ..44.-44 } ;tO G C :L~ 4' 4 'I 4 .4.. :? 'u": = '.. :<., t l:'liI '1-},.h .,.1 I <,l't14 -.'} t 111. -

offic ia< :,ls mak-:e acq::uir'ing. a] e,,asy,

. 494 The utcom : of th thr' ee f a t,: rs is t' '-'a 'l i. :l.,,?a-y 1 'a 4 .e .
Sintern:-ati;:onal.) ma:. rklet; bias<: be,?en: ill] egal:: at p!% o.?,:u: .:,,::i .l i;: ro ';:.n u,' ,,=::.-f..; vo,
<7'1.4'- "6....41 .444 '4>1 llf '4 4E' .417'i: :. [4,, 144 .... 4 '14 1: 14:L :" ,-'41 :. 14T .14bE- I: "(.11:-:".44, 114 ...1''' 4. 1 .I '_

I 1 98): To myli "l: r' ol 1 knowl edge 144 o :: (,, 1, 't 4: i449 a ei ha e er, been', ivein t- th

',-no nl ,. hisab i. lity," ,,` M;"o' a d t>"ic Claus>)., e n i. h r.:rc,!:b]e~ra- ::s> -/,-" use.: :-::,,
S.... .. .. 44 "} :,11 9Cl4U 14. 4'':::,-.' 2 i<.'14"4-' -'. '4, <
4 4 1 ( : a: : 11414 ." 44'4.'::: { 'if C 44" '' 't :: I'14: "' : 1G ''.>4{IlI.4" 1.1h1 i' 4>4 44 :I. : '.'114' 44'4:r.-'4, 4iI'4'4. i--4

r u.e.. I ai c 44 .. t 4. -,.1 f h
protes thtteisei n fsmlecie teprniliseo th.:'
goo qu11 versu th bad guys

1,12 Tusks ar' var.iously acqu.' :IL-iredT'], "om a' r'o r ral 44e h '' ant
mortality, In 1978 ex::a'mined a lar s ofe ivory i:n Hong Kon: and
,con, lde,:d that 22-. may have or i.:ginrst..d' fri'iot.h .a.",rral4 1or41ai i y (Far"-
1979), in 1986 examined a small sample of six; tones in Anitwerp aind found-4
1: w~as old;yefcer' and likely to have come from'' natural deaths (Par'ke;r

that the proportion of elslphant's k:illedl by mnai rose by like amount, Havjyinn
-4 .c. :.,.. h:i ;'4ti 41) 4', KJ-,,. '! V :h ,4 ..T c >LK, : i K *' ..'c'-' -4=. r 4'' 4

!9I8, I that, whiC;!ot elyng able to 4to

weathered, mi'uch of which may stemiT from naturl.l'ii deaths,

1 ,13 Other tusks are derived from elephants ki'iled.T principal" for meat and!
fromnwic h ivory is an incidental by-product, itestrd,_ hpen, h
Ia "o ed i 4t" 'e d si!)' t e i o yI a .' lo a r t a e n p t&`,,

1wt4 threm rather tand tihd ownea rs tko, thunerseln initiati vea elephants

are coftein burdindlerstr-l a n thay dci,.e)F o ar-i TVhe %11ers "1ho) e 1'ranyo
.i.e c s .... ter ..... s',f' no Q ; the

,..d0), tu alsk eds seeo b s:aso-a a n :lsec it is. therey Z. :rn. aao:oe
Hoiwee e T' iwhl Zaropotio n oy r' sir' e4 iu 'Jn fomdand o the acruryv ewe

S, 14 Mor common he andWe rro ead arei ivor huniters who dolttle F-erl elehatskl
S.daels t'.'o the avi"bet veti K.'n( r wher thnd es
"4: C'"h L S < 7 % !}" l 'C .<;I;] : .c;5 ] ...' "= sC7 "- -" 4 .

landis)t V also- ten6 ',. s to on 1 is!, < m'.aI, tr,-7s-eti itf is 5wo. ;; ma or is ,.rc'y
of i'vo:vry coming outh of;: th,'ose~ section {.:.:s i~r of Afrcahee; therurualu people arc-,,m:
'4 : l'<,'] 1 .4; -

4.'-"'..... t h' ,S ;'L'.I in, th the n hz.biq.e 4i.A,
].,]4., I.I:1. / '3q~ 'di,, : '1 '4 ,P 7 :: ....h.' '4 ,,' '.]? h!i-~t..' .: "K- .4' ..'.44 l.'.f7 't:' .g [] t4 l4-. ,r ".;_.: j ]'4 '

.An., l:a; the F'L Z i: n Za..l ;. [ires a.nd th ,. F:.L7 o l Sp-: irit-.,=q mo em n in ,,-nd all acqu.Fi !t1i '! : } ire
4"i-e ',,,,] '":. "4O- : 4- ... t '-i .V:~ '> ""- : ]i;;..' L, :. = "~ 'r ",":'' ''.,.. ... '+ 4 4; 4.,p 'V '4 .. Wh f'e '3 4 '

t'l i",i 4-44 <. i '4,'.:"'4 **'4i*. 4;'44 4ih T.K4 '.:: 43 '7. 7 "' i 1"4. 4. 1V i'':"'C t4-T~ r ,'sb l~ !a [: ''4 '{. 7 t'4 7'
4-4... 4.. I..) c r ': .,"17,'" r>'u' ',;; ... 4. 4 4; "; t7'4' '4. lg. >4 o '4 4 ,3) '~ y ,p 4. "''-4>. ".',:[ :'.: "'q] fq. -:'

44 ., t :i"r= ;, r. .... 41 g. II '4 K % '''441}v~ 4-tT44- OIT 4.. '"n 4:= c, 4.. i 1b t 4"C') (s '4'' "":...'_I :"
ivor I. '4h4." c 1. delibera:tel ,a c re y to b, eq.ui '-ent .. ,te .i causes,

elephants, Because 'th i an14' 4'. 4144e '- ar intense 44" diff'..... to '144''
'4,~ ] ~ 4 .4 h. .-4. 4 4'.'',3: : 4 4':.'',.iori?,.' '4'- : ''4',-4 ''].] w .~444 44" 4 ''4)4j4-44'4"4 .2'4]...4 3)44 4'" '.L. ,'~4 '4 '' ''4
',+'P."," >t ";4,l =4.4,- 4[' "4-J 4 ; '" t 'P ] "}C ,..t'} 4'.'i"<- 4 1 ,4' t.4 :.'. 4 44;)ii}''', "..;~ P ",-4:i
-hey tend: % move a;bo:ut in bll-!, ig]er'ernt tLi-:.n:i.. :rv iib. hey al.ili~s

Suchmdaese op:::erating%: in th"..;e: ,Central".: Afr ic:P "an- Repuy.bli.c;!- north%-'e'r'n Sudanese-m
operating in;: t he- sout,. he rni S:.:udan::', anud i~nlo_ nrt:he:,:-'rnr, Zair.e,

'4' i 7 '>''. '.'... 4 3:). .. 4,, ....: .., .v'- 4'4-: r' .% <:" '., n _,:" ,ve .:''- !44f,:," 'c 7r ,: .
1 i ,7 Eas t).~-.lIo cP W y on} paper"~j ] distincti onsLIP6. be-wee th ff,~ or:t4 eg >: t-,i i rig' C

S.4'. ,.4-= 44. 'r 'I::. ;:n ,"; P L ,. -: J i c !.iy l[i .: '-'<- ; :4-'4"": 4''.~ ''"-.,
1 "18 Lawfu '44444'1'.2 i a4. Sourc of:. ivor" tu 44o 'ajority : T'-''>4'f'

-4 '4i7 41i 4'7- ''4' 7 7 "/." 7 "T] 1 A''; ":<71 i7 .": =: : ': ::
owners di e and t h.e' i.7 vo,"ry is

:in rte cas..:e of those w..ho ac,,qu:-ive. .... ", i nci d mentallylly co .a a<:: by. : ",.-[-pr d c o".:.. :i
mea 4 UM t i nqi pas Moug seea..*''4''

',-,4' ( ,, :ciii '4 44 Ai"C1-: '1% 0 71;_. 1.:. r>d7 t,~~.::}l : {dl '-4.'. I % l]:D: <

poi t, f u e o ,.rt Re e t y for exam I lattleOy. i
I44'~ 44 '44.'''4 ,..'''.... -' **4,".l'. 4 .'."'

elepant as a l a sidelin % te herding, N ,e '4'.. Q s t

4 .4 4' .... o a ut, f. a o th a d t h t T 4 4... .

....t inevi "t b "4&, to a kc t w l n -,

21 Th atr niyao rd o wihi Afic' ivor 'ommer' o.:

,.-.17.e 14.','44 '''" 1'. : '.: .=.< -.1 a :. 4.:. 4 4 : .<:

has 44444e? t~''4 <. ,'d ',/4, .'4 ',,7:. i 4' 444nv f,:'::... ,:.: :: :7i :o-..i-. : ,',.. 1, ''1 .: 1:l 4 -:
of r -, concentration a.'n-d...... .. J n di v i. ,
4444444~~th pr fe s on l ar 44er s 4'r exmpl I' .')4~44 ', 1 I'''1 4 1.:'' 4 1 I4 ''4
ex mie f' res "g e n iv r tha had4'4' 4I 1n' 1 4 4-4 '.-.4 4 -' 44
fo eprti B&AuaQundiolyto o hs'wek'atr'h
elp a t from~ which. it4 .t{oo44-. com were stunt 'P' 14..4- .'i 4'''4 1''
li1k tht1 exain' in:4)44 Evni. were4 1.-'4 burie tor4~
so4 lon that their 4'.44) layer or bey was sicll chu4 Ovral my
4 ft,:t.,scr fr rlth ], near 3.. V' 1 ,0 0 t s s.n48 n v .n

144 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~M n"?4 'M 4- '." '''1 41 1 -iY''-' '' 4- 4
14'be i44 1988 -4" albei in4' a cursory mane was1' that414 f4v .4 n bee''~ .0'I'

1 22 The f '4 orego '4 'V ''s1a 4144b-na44 i I' s1 et h I., c --E :IjT
doumn man ini ua cas4s, b44t th4y would tak. a1'7~4' grea deal'" of 'ti'' "''' '
copie Thywudilsrt 'atvrato ndti oweeML
is~ 4 cw'-':, not 1 ww an th44444444 4, l -': ulv4 necyl' to aCR4rs '4 them 44 ''4-
they" would4~ reea is that]' t-he4 ivor NosinessV in4.~4 4.f Pic has bee '' '4''4
gene41 r 4' ''" I ~'i' 4411.. continue t:o ~ 4 L-, ''44-r ar widel ava la le The44" .~~
concept of a5 str'tu'. trade 444 4'''ite and'''1' wi 4A4 Q 144'
has21441' tee wrng The4. ''unmnoplisbilty of the ivor reouc ha 1'' '
prevented~~~~~~~~~~~444 th1vlto4f4Ma tutr npeiel h aewyta
'44 4'44 '4'' 1 ~ 444 ''41..' ~ 1 ;; X _.1. '''. 1 A 4 4 ', 44 444''~

:: r --i~m n a 7 .s T h e l{ i k .'e l i h o od:>,: o f a m a .f i ,.- y l-. e c-: p,:! i m+? i n s+: t r uc ;i t u r ei'i- e v o l] v i n g] m u -s t ;
be i c e s i g-hug a e, t he= su.m + o f in f+!o m.m+A j on it-+, my d ] x m a*+' "'-, -
n dic ate a f .ee- 'o -a. s {ua .o s i PersiJ.,, Certain 1:N -

t. '44:4,-,. Im y have r, ", close to t Pon r .d K r it e ir P ....y -' Q*

....44 '142 ... : 1 .. 4 .. 1i. Lf+,-,u >u +' ;r:;l w"i7{7:..i+ 7 '} "'i?;, til, ''.-1

t.5 p 'o 2' -') ...... --' :. ,..1..,..fl ..+.'4 t I. i'4''4'j 7:"4 4.- 4141r4. ++i :) ,- ..
1 '.... ;'42,441 -+,; f4 .~. .. *" '. 4
illegal, Withi Afia hecon. o- o vr

I ,.7.:. 4l~ os. p ;-.>::ve i] *'4..1, ,q e-. : "- l.*.+a :vty i. -a+- '"-- ,.,1 e 1 '4/ :4 -4...--'.

] 444'1' 4:7],V.'=' 7'4 L<' ] t+~ '4w-.' .L;T -tf1; ~-' "44 1=I*{ ; ?.+. 44 4' 4- <+',-.: ; '+ 144;' 444.++'4+1 4 : ]". I';'1t 4 F; f'4t. .i'i'~
resource, sti,:irong- ly, :+7 ]'7,! :to ,!:+] predi ms c imial.on rol to loat e irts l withinmff-,".;

.'....... .. ......ta'. 44 .... .. ie ence that4+'+. l I4'.J
1h' s i happening,,, < 4'

'2 R i -+e-, have 1Off' 1 1 1 'j,' C1+Jer.!, ,1.+0C

4:4.. .. .44 '- I : l
-+ 4t ',,4 '', 141+ 1
44.4.4. 4+; 4' +I' .+..i~ +l =+--~ l+, +;+O ++ 4di 4'4*t + =q l ";''2 1: ii'. +1 +P 4 +' '- 1l+3 E 4'].+++. ..: 1 .. ...1:+i
spce .+a A .9' G g o.O In

;;..'{ o1 v:) th e 0 'v .-.. .; 2-t '+: 41 c 4 4 ..,1. '2 ... 4 {7 .7::.-_- ': .;- hI'.+
44. 44 ++= 1.4. '7:-] 'ii ,++ 1+;",a = 4:+ +-+ t+,:';+:, ')'v ']V :+, i t :+
det, tndl faiin aghuju comoit prcs will... haerist

,++ \ 4.-, ..i i i+: -
14 14a + O .;t q '5 fl 44.4! .4 l' J 7t+e i]] ( '2++ ,+ 1.+i 14t.+ 44, ,- -4 0+. ++. '.+{i .141',:= 3 4,] ,,+ +. ..
.1 1 4,j4. .. in 4i + .I to t i vory .4 ++'444- ... of ,.i few n t r c.m-+ '' that Afri4,.' a ,
44 ''. v :' a r i
relative+' t, o ma uf ct re indust.+i !: V..i +?t!-+ +++ r ial qIuods: + + :- 5 ;+';+.+.I7 + +-";. I+- ..,]+t + +
1,2 A later asec V++ MY& ,+wyesals ul!rci
am+e n trad Knor ,.+inl: n,, ..... a K om u n ivedt ': + ',++;u.II.
'.7+< ; It. that it r.uns to+++thousands......... e d+"-'moat l"-iving" "i..n close+ ',.
proximitye+- to elephan ,+ ..t: r' ts h v m-anmb-: :+ e P5 do++,,++ are -involved: -L+ e,' ither+ +- o -+: +,nca ionall%,,i.:-
or, so: a f ull' +'-ti me:,+ oc oia i n An al, genera rule .. .. w r i a p e
Y"A. e r, ou th'e+ e le. ..... p. ++:l r1;Tt+j +:' ++++, ..m ..+.% +f q +7,+7;] ] + t + V L";= + t:,+ +, :.7 ] +- 1,+
ivo ry "r.+; .: ii +i / .. ,+ o r++a,';~ + :i r ++ ip+u ,... :? + r + '+++' ';, ++
1,2 .lon of+ the 1rw mac]nt i- -f jc .. .. .. I t-:"-kec ........ ...
so el o.nO"' t.sks forr ,::t ,+ t he-d i r+t;, i re ],:++ e:':-:"a "!j -'+ .':' .+ i ++ k::++: r.:-, i + i;.. .:'
.. .. te i b t a l r a ls eq rs ,+.,. ]. -:+",+; :;+ 't -,3 i, e .. -, C 'r .... '! ,,. n,g !::v }ir;
inves"]f tiga.t~jion;_+: o7]1[ +;f the Nor trowl-: reni con ect on in" a "o m rc a web: wt,. '-..

var+!uied -:, r [:~an ing ieroml conta'iner ead i+.l wh!i. i i sky iv='i'rto :;cking i Q:' arnd s:o+-,qa.p;

Qverwhetmingly iv r wpalt , ,-...!!i ti-. -ihe .:t n n n somev asp:+~iet :
t{. yl+` AII+'>7 < +t!'"Ire !.'a% :0? :=.q Lt deal of this,: '',b '1is ndC 7+;I ,: i r
government } 'l i /it k ol edge for A TO Wi ]]l}t]7 l: ;, + ']+: i t h i ts o a k of"" ] ; .. ]'lt j :' '' ,'ii'I+'i1 =+ { ]:i" I: : ] i+ '1;

777 "- t ,.,-.,..., .... .
sister st udy pick. 1 u ,th d l y g y own .ve nt:,i i,.

:I>: l') 1 7! v '.z @"7F,j 7; 7 '11'k ,'':'7 ..' rA.'7 77 ; "~~, 13'i. 7 )' V i j Or' '' ''7]
,.IIi7' h -I 77I."' *7* 1 -.,,, -,, .:.- :ri 7: T B "- :.i 771...., : a : i. I '7 I7 O 7 '. 7J 7 : :C
witIhin .'hi 7.- e i 7et t1he countr y wh7 fich' 'f iet th7s role, ,p.-ar
,xwe.:..c o .. ... -,v ; ""-- -.- sincit.!' f~ :[, io : :. 7:e tl.he ', : '-f. ....--,. **...., ..".. .-%, .; : kh.:'- irl the i fth
,:erl]'.ay" ha~s a. w-:i~nale Afr :ican:.. entr'ep,:o't so: totally: ': dormin:ate.d ~the ivory"' f"lo,..

an1 d. Bu u d e w e 0;.d 19 T a h7-v-ttih-
.. tt, ,' by.doi7n so, 1i HMO

.. ..7; :.C "; i ]'O "V ( ..' :. 'i7;:r.,.... .. ....t 7 7, 7, 7d"". '. : ], 7 .1 : ::1 "',3 .7' ]2 :', i.,-V ..',

2 :. ,1.7: .7 7''[.' -7 ": C .. 4. .',,v .' ;@:h t' i: ]@ .T : .-- ~ \ ; -. 7', .. I-- .L'1'7 } 1. ~t 7 i' fW7, 17 '47 :
underlines th'e. fi7'" ] t7e lam" c a s at .e m o'nopol r ivory-

-o 7 ex ,.: !?: ]T J~ P: : :::r7: t:.: 11'.s,-: :7 ]',. 77o 1 :.'. -+'kl(~ J 7:7:[ 74:.1 7- 7.

7 I 7 7 7.ld ] r ',

p... A t 77, .on t r a -v -' th r 1 9 w 7 t o f 7 '7n

: SJ 7 i:o 7:.2 b.'If -'. :! ,-'71 -".41'' f7'}f: .: !:. T1 i', 7i 1 ::::::::::: ,7, ;7 .,[1 ]. 7171-.71' r'_ ,
comple-x, deta The decee banin trade in.-: ivory--/ intrduce in-F thatT c.o.ntr,.-

S2,? "',::F T 7: !; 7 '1.. ": .4 : '' ,'-1 'q I i T]: '7. ': 112 1' '"'7 !: f" -'1 7. -' & 7. 7 :, 1.7. ]. 7:' P .::O f ..: '- '"7 ..7. 7 '.7,7 .4 1-.

7-~ ',,- C iT :: a : in ,:, ', :. : .7,7 7:n ; !;~.'' 0,: .: h d :, ,:. c :.. d '.

77, 4 '1, W'." 7777'777!: 7 iat,1 .4777 d .l: ,7-'2:i ,.,7 7 ',,a :,. 7, ,7,. l- X7.''17,- 1, t : ''7.1'' '7- a 7 1 '
[.in 198:. 7: H oF'nd'thcz,/ }}di :: ::is cha ne Yet 7 uq as. a. *E dam :. contno.. 2 :.. :i" M oo the',: flo Qq: -

dif f c'u, Of the two e mernts-.- tha have .. ontriou, t :':e to h'. smoot;

.... 4 r .~. 44, ":4 ;i .'4 4;. 4'F44:' A F -':, '4,.si 44.'~ o .i ,
parof un ly -- exp h -.:eor perms i ts -L-. W: :o ei::.-" Ih 1J;: i.rts, (kt-i] -i _-n

YF : :io !] i '- .,.;:..,: 1 'b':an 'op ,:F:F' i' i UF,' '... 'i.: .. .4~m ,-'i 4;'4'''4- j 44' .,44
" :-,1ll 'fi:h fo," ;s wr matching tax ori.or p :'.-i-. e rmi- ts directed the flow:=,:'! of i vory. i.

parti.... ular,.o ,: -to tho : se who% &W:'.-'~ still. to be come q-ui-,: ie in) h t' :: .he Convent.ion,

..'.. .. .. 4'"-- i 1 i- F4.p !:: :.F':.-:,

:, .'' '' :' t : _.'''L {:....... ... ...... :. 1.;: '.AS 4 44 44

'4 1 ,j 4'4'.' 4 .. .. 4 .. .. ...''44 4 . .1 .$ 4 4 .4 C..4

4 K4,1,'i 4Ji.,' .r'"44,4 4-4-., > :. ''iL '. .: i ,i- 44.' F',, 14;'= j 4'.'; V .:.: ,'e 44 '. r *!.44.:: ''" 4',
42 '''IL' ,F P 4' 4 v I' ..i ', ',r ,'i4 "c r i 4 .. F .....
for.; iv r and: had: +tor move i-t,-, ....... ,i w o i m haA gs o
f e.... amply wi t This was '44444. a nd t,

lawful at les covncn douetain Th out 'me are' readil'y'
appren in the foloin sections statistic%
2 '1 4ie .';.'ia io ,' toda'.' is4 4of~ .4 re so s to t at ior re a
str ng if tha ev r Th "1 '' 4.4. ''4V44I"-;a t r;*'r-:c,' pc*E' 4
decin dept attmpt to' reL'F",'4 th tusk trad in this ''' cotx it :
strkigl clea .4.:.'4'44' whl Wer has bee a.44.-adAe ht
4' land We,~ 4'lun Ff ivory 'tr4ded,' 'it'. hat neve bee stte what4 .
"444''h -4 4: (i''<' ..~. N' ~ io d be,). othor 44,4. W4.. 74''4, e belie" "' ,.;
whtee proucio occurs it s'444 44e: Fu..-ae N' view of thse

12 C-1.:T-.- -7 Ta :

worldwide are tche official orgiansr for' iyatsiruing f:'f'.i!'"ialon a:nd trade duag';.
iBca .us e', 1 h m ae, Spy, a e ,a.y te bet,- f.uned: -
(' jar ke ." -2' fj'i I.. 1 .979 ). ., :it' ; '. A I.. if':if72 I".

:.2. 2 Parkq::er'. 0 !979 ) :illustrat :' .: .:ed: t;he.:
Wor 1.3' m rf'oi"i ;in' y anti annua.:l Cusltom;:, h
overview of e irternstional

bae tro t

vojut o! :.' ,:f d:et,:a il a. va :.ilabl}:ie in h :!e
Excise rec.r,-y, N .o gla: a :oh .rOM

ivorytrodeOn~t qins n obiou.-;
:,rr! +`1;l"_1. Cl ivc',,

fr'oth'ie o Unive r i t. '. i-.t'.' 'it ft-, .
f o '" '' Britis 6 ...' Depar..tment o 'a--- <

* 'tre, prncpak

lrndu'bry library ir

: s were pv:idd qy '
d: otherP [b'o 'v'rc :.esi, v

... ... .. ... .. .. ........- 1,: } > :..L h 4

l:' 1 "fe ,'.:'it.. i' ". f:, .'f'.. .. .. ". f i. t""I.f L'z. ....." A ft'"if' t ." i ,' Vi'; 'ilir'. T i-'t.i'*'i. t

across t' gi that u to f'be knownV '., i i' f *f ,-)l.t -i trade terms aI s ...t...., '.'...
"butts"- ft.2altft ,fi in t Customsi recorANi it fisca ssiie unetti S

asi ~ 2f, or the Brss l fod Lide 051t 0': I .fu ther digitsi suff ie to.I ~ f thesfi
in iae ntoa'u-ls iiaifons, L 'a i t !;o

--F-: --: --iEE

miporited f: roi'o' Afri-::: by ivory consumin.gI!.,'iq naii:tions than.. i".:.'. ) C"iei'a" "IV
appears to have beens exported by Africa,

Qi1) Theoreticalliy, exports should aquaal. imports in volumei and' ::"

thf:!e + shipping and ins'iu -p;.n costs). in pr)''actice- this
.. ... ...... "' 7 ....4

il ;-, f o l':; .. ii l:pLi .41- .. !-; ; r t 1'.t, ,- ,.: 7< ",4 : r, 'k i iE tl
44 i7(,l-4; 44C .4O:+': }]Di. i" -f,~ :i ?, V. JP,:,), CIT P.2.,%.A~~ 4~l

I.... .. '] V .. ..... ..

... d no F -an tor x v i of reason, s sc as; --
be t~echi:i'cal ly the same^, tche Customs officials.

records uses a di)'! D c iffei're de-nfinition ot, r i u t J ci-kin, i
ite"' fob-r '"Partaly w.ortk. );

C&) Tithat ivory in transit betwnd natios way parriive] at
> ~~~......." ][ t' D
4 ,..: i ;P i~p, ;4. .4 ;;:4I;-'W 44fl4 4444 "44 P Y -,. l 4,4 ... .. 4.4o 4: \ 4, 4.

i'4ts' In apture fro mthe, county. o dioy: m,4 ivo ry
445 -pI4 44.'; t[ ...4yp,.pf/I j 44I r 44;:< tO 4 I. 44 4 47; .; 5,/ I JDTI~,k V T i

shipped in tDeem may not arrive unti .... ., Th
4 4 4 4. 1 4/ 4 'o; *- ',.:. 7 4l'y 4.P. 44~ t;t): ." .
W ig value s are coce ,eport dalu, are.. t ioy
re spetive fob, whereast o ,t, Ipta gven Ofh:uu,

4 ~ .4...:+:.. ..:I f~.7. 4ii7 4":i 4 ,;r).O 4 4" iL

4 4 4 "' '. 4 ; "% t !.4 ". jii : r, /." Z '!; 4-44 1I 4.

.4 .. ,- ,,.4. .4L[;4-"; 5. 4k~ 4" 'L"; ;+ ;,' '4."4fl 44-44 44 4'. 2 ;, 44. 44"':214.'... 444 4*.-
(e) Som-e iv nor istae nbn ti spriual h

placein t same vi4 some i a'scri.ed a
originatin in4. countries wheei i way have had ..": ..;

.1 1.'
.. ..4. 4 /4 4 .44 4 4. ..... .. .. ...

44,, :P ;" ] 4 .t': 'f,+." \ II ," ;. I,, ll'":. ". .I+.I! ... ':'._ F 4{. 4, 4 i b cH :5 4 y[ 14.

extended in-tra sitstayo from entc. it -4 .
rerut; afe hain lef Africa, 44 14.'~

M .5 Som .c 44 441 1;l2' fica yer Q;q in ias do 1 not

.. ... 4 ',' 44"'' '4 1 V I, ,3 : .. 4444 4f4' f'C i('t. T -

i ~ ~ ~ tn t-Q be~ lox A,:, { classic, ilusraio ofa thi sort of:. '-
.4-'. 4' 444 4 4. .: ag v -.-. } i -I :' {[[* f :" iq [ I '., .. :: %% ,4..-.- 4 4., :' -, -. "
error was rh' t 1-he- Yim4:w auh rtisd ring ,h. i'
study, 4 ivory r. d. .. ...... 7 ... with

... .... .. .... p11 -, 14'4' .: 4: '7' 4.._ .. JA9 *' q.tI i '41 47 44- 1 rl .) !} 1

.4 .444f444 Y-)4 I.I':' -.'p L- i.: J::a "" ".: :," .g ( .: { : 1,2 4 I C'.: ).-" v.-
th- Dep artm-entof Nat.i--o.-na..l {&WildlifeManagement.' s
44 W V ; t w f.
the volume of seed, expored4into th e beorvcolumfTh

"p':ointi ise', the more 4a whe it is at SO
Timbabwe' s 444rd ar rall of44 a very hig Quality' '
internal'' 'i1 o'4 naltv4. 1 41 *. 44

2 '7 ~~~~~..!scvnae o CqV >t saH Pcw nlns lc m

but4 an: ' the a Pim, smac of~'1' iroraton A le apua experts

an ua imp rt may* 44 o co rs1 n perfectly 444 .i 4er Sh ul at je. ~ 44::"l'.'444
high 4~ U dere corela io betee '41rn TOO v1!h .4V.1 `-,"act''~
ilu ta e in Ta l 1 with exa ple fro Hon K 'I, 1.'' 1*4n' 44. 1 4.

Hon Cutm reodwy;c,4n TteO~a ~vse eas

'I it is. the lags imC tr/xo ter at pa Ma (iP its4'1 [,reo 44 4 44 ."'
sta tin in4 92, is cqie of the 44 .1es av ia l ,* 4i ? 4 1e on41 ot
4:fn- .q!ip s a d i c m a are? r*14. 4`-/ 4c:,44"
ineniv to- conea eihe voueo au,0 ntltecmecmn
C i 41, "7:.4 -` ''' were.'I4 Yc; inga re t ic i n on ~'4 v 4 i4': 1 14 4
O 4.'''.- see F'4ri"' 44 979) 44vj Q )4/ '.44'nt 2" 44 444 4 ,-o.~' 7 ,rl '44', 44 -44 44
4..i c:4 h1 4 l.414...........44 pes n l nIyl':.r c roc~ m' iw ~ w n

in th Ong Kon sttitis

441 Tabl !A pre ent th' 4'1-:1f44 4'" ,~ 4'4 '44441 4
Frnc a-nd Frace' stte vaue ad k'w 44,' 4444 4,4 444 44 '''4
bten 19464 an 197 Thm tw dat sets ar 4144te ag is one 4 '1 4 47 1'
4'4i- 14 sho ve y c o a o rs one c.1
4 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ iie tha th~44 '4 44 44 ,.'4'4.2.4
rec/d of exp rt ar 444'' 44'44re1 ..44 1 444 on !:na jt,: .''' 444 j-41`1,7
are O f (c s s 44 insu anc and fre44 '1 ight)444' 4,*4 ;' I l"l.4z 4.c '>

2.1I Table M shows Hong+ Ko./.Japan expert uimort values F5or worked ivor4

'"ain:, o a. n '' her vi .g ye q Saw good correili.'. .... ...ation Q 0,95).

o f i'.i,-.' 5 .,1 '-o... .? 4':) + l1. y.s ..2 '. r .o or1:. .. .. .
and, as expected from th,.- codmpaisoni's of e vci. ,._ the imp .o orts ape

xi.p1" rt a4, r< 4 [1)1" 4 I ar" ". l. A r.' r rord 4d e"r, The d re
SI 4 s. 1 *. 'P A' C Ei F 0 RF, :.D

144, ll'4>. ] :g411.' 1 F 44 .' 'u<' er ', -<: vf.: KF{ 1 : i 4 .1 z.i 1'' ':..:, 1'> -i 4o'. .... p.',r ''K' 1. -1. : :. +
,in .,vl um and valu% v .'r, es p. ect l ye i. 4 K n rre pon." : rei' '1 '. :,r
il .-and, 1975, The W e,":e East Afr'ican.., count, <{ries> arc> ,;. .n ,, ..u> Most

*salienti pon t ha he firstuistnes and his naeviarb "dy apparee n arrival
1' .1 h +::.T, .. "! '1, ,''q~[..... 4, Lt''4. 'Kr.:tF4 C '[ ii' '?+ 5 .. } ., ...... '4.1 .+'4' 44 .4 41.e _"- 444J, ..: 4.4!t 'CtC

"n -+ K ':ng as T ... r :ij n t or. .
il l 1.11 1 .1.44 IiF{: 4i+!,{" I'" "' 44.!+ I '' 1, "+ -, 4 >'11ZOP' """i- ...
v 4144.:,: : 1 4'+ ,-, 1 4,,-" .iJ : 44.1: 1 .. ~~ "I 4 '. I,, ,.
. .. .. i'... 4 44 4 ', .4 11... P. .4'i 12 1'. ''1' ,' + ; lp+
value ar" e plote agis on an'4h- in4 Fig 4,
co r l to (r 0,97L Lu Ho',ng Wig'so+f +. i m!,porls than: E: ,'

acxme .... by ii MR& diff+{erence,;,_+ The.. vo~lume~r ta also, corrp elat,%:

export/imp ort jat ,o ao s dorr valuesQ-O N, and! iliari.-an Howe ng Kong~i

.4 I.'4' C 6ive t-t s. of1 f 1 "Y '4 4,5 .e or.d.... .2'at ve o t e.....' ..... .
imports:ph:. ar.;e 46.,:. ir :,we; than East::' Afri ca+~ 's r'e :i~n vo;!umae .-ar.e ".Y-,.... s<=ca'" ,< :t. Q- W ON. ..+ i +- {nfluen,, c es. and-, a:- .:+n l e>:o rts ,qh,: o ma ha_ ve

1 4 4i1 ~ .. ..1.... r.4 1* 412 1. 1:21 41. '<...~~ .41144 14 *54'' +4 44 4+ 4+ 1'-'.
lose it.,1..4'1 to t.e. .11 W is m c, "n<' ,
wei hts t. h+ in -. e wc+ -.+ ,' b e TI-l .....lng K n C ~ s

M+ and 46 repctvl bewe 19%.. and 1975, + Th m ag o 0-i
conf, -i:Lrme:.d, b:y t.rade-l+_: s::ourc-e-s.+ t{ha{t". th.b {".+is was+. ;: M ew;h-_ : the case;+'., W erl- de...c.l.-]aratio::.rn

Cu;,s~toms statistics...,.. O f the+ data % ,a .pre ,' plotte-d ;,--+i-- ".-Jrne it % i.-.+ :.+-
- -par+zE+++7.'t't}" that ++ t- h,,:'t iP tie between++ dec are export ou ip ps e a
grete as tim progressed)......,

e:.xp-+ort/"importi' dat{.{.a do. no:t c:orr lt and c+ z] : ', .-q, .omp::a'r~i.s-o:ns betwveen, them are
...i s Given t e s rengt of W. Kory'a7 re a d r:p' :. :eltiv 5) o s: {;+ :7, +ther

Customs data are vailueless,

2,i4. A Customsd : 4. n iat ',. .- .:i ,, io i& ,x8, r are7 r T s ;

talleswierth thae eninefof tommrc -~ value, The usal grwn nrepoet thish oie
ndatintal ofurren ficiesap ictig Conternationa comparisons other 2vr

29 Ta represents coi ubki atan %usois a eor ofraOvoMDYtIrs T
"1.".1..'...:.. ))LAt1.., -;. i)T 4. '.''. 4 ,7- 14; ."E. 3 >.L. ;C) f':} : .... L11, 1. ,. 0 i.'.. '. : ] ........L".." ) E 2- 43'1'i ;11.4- .14
F::'!..[', 4. '. ,)li'V ") j4 K)f-3 ). 14 t 1 *f' ;).' ].]. % i. Fi;',1 .?[17.~ .-)'i./1. T V)Yi". (P iF ', & .- ,.4 '

1.)E: d ]i ;.=' Lk'7,7 .'~. 4'. (] F V .'7": O .. ........ P p 4 --' 9 1 4...

were fueished tocalcurlat i to vlua shown en '!79 at 1c 7 tat- 'd
recoris 's Io'''i and lPro D..1'we .t!' 'f, ..or ;i..y .be, 1- 4' o d for on,

Dep,.ari'tme of Tr [ d-. I n .:.. r,.t it a in ii.s lijob a W n o t i the ;..cep't i. ri .'
he ,-'i,:Ivoire which is treated separately in Table the "-"freican da

1)11 .1. 11 .'- "7 u4". 4 -,.:. T 1 :h141 .I44I9'11;4 Ij 4 ; .4, 1, .4 V4 ,1 1 7I I. .11-44L~t -!'." '4'i.'.".: ~ t .. ....

.. 1 ..... .. 441. = ;

4n4.' I,>..4 114 have 41 .T Hi'-;- I,,'1 ."l-j 4 I;:,: 'o2 -ii]Fr4 t ,
by[ th Iaverge anual .I' 1 ] ivior (rTabl-.e 25) an the Iuth A-fr1)j 'i' ica.1 va.l:u
by di.vidin I b 44 t,- [r.- gi ve r f,.: South African 'ivonry a i.,.. ving-I in
HongLz Kong;' r for e-acEh year-L-, Th~e s..epa..ratei;?; t;iE?;,reatment;s seemeZ d atJ :pprop i~at{e as!;- ItheF
Bot:swan-a :e-rt-- materials! .is: ,-istvib,:uh te ,- w-,M"'id l wtJ h ;little.].= being exporte to ........

Kong wheea 01)111 a'.'l1.* susatalo. v'r r
.. ...4..4. ... .. .. ..'. I 4- ..
{%.-' ,o,... .. .. 14-i~ r j .2 .'. <. I O >14. .VI .1 z. 74 1' ':; r 41,1 -;-]i ... ... .. 4, '1" K,)ff f 1tr 1":... .. .1,4.9 : :,f 4 ..;l .
2,16 Tabl1e s. pres nt '.11.- -4-1 4.')t Co .44te) 11ivoi9e's :i ) 4, or y' imp rt Iu;), 1. 9i
that they gitJve.:= not. only].' overall vol.;)iurme and;V value, out brea: : k: tu.csW= down inrto

raw.: i.v-,.ory, Pa ke ....1-979 I) po in e o.>: i t 1 tr;; Lhat,.{ Q.r i tl::.- t;e C, i
d-' ,lvoJire d::eve= -,',loped in to,: an.I iLvoryG~ consumL!!er, .Ttak:ing ii in ;il fa ;r more r { ,ivo-ry"'

now ran ....h' isi coun!tryi' amriong t he: ma-j5ff;or' raw,, ;ivoryV c:onsum[..,ers%,

pr-ovkhdi=' G-. WV&,, but fo:un~d J,.Yn -1, o: libar Q'' Washington' -

2,- 8 Table "6i.5 i present's Ta"),iwan's raw i-""vo jry '~r' Th)-ii; nLigiV tji .D YOt.
c:_over'ed: by, r:aik i (1'D-9":) as :inrd c, tii,;s,.. at...,.. ,= ,.+ t he ic- ~ : wf-,..,er'- {-JAt, JAt had "ilo

CU. :MORIS r-e,:: :: M i nd ic:ates-.. a rap:,i.d P'i ;e, inr i~m o,m ts. in. 1. 5 8.5 -- 198 ''7, ]i" i
tLall ies ,,,.th.- ..... ...a,, de- infrfima--ti{on that.. Taiwani is a. growing(: ,--,nt..rep.,-o0- wh.. .... -ich. owe.-s ..

advanl-tag Q -f the di f f:icul=,;.ties the Co v nto impo es........vor
im rpo "rter s.

a:irf"r eig:ht.ed.. from M'umni& to D.ubai- :: b_{:i.l:etwee '1"79! ....... 19r 87 Int ":.. 1.i .k{ cor-ns-..zl.-ide
them' usle..'i:..,s~s, There~ mray/ be:= a; techn cal.............i o
Qe,-., iti is pos--s.iblIe th-at the :ivory may.',, be hel]d :in ha-nd. for' onvwa-rd
tLrant r'Js.mi -ssi:on- ;A= rnot c;onst%[ )itute: a.. "i.ui,a import".. ... .to th'e coun,:;t ry t,-,), ':but.. W;V-i<-
rema i nsk:ii to"3 br;e establd:].J. ished)',


2,2' T 'able cNs the I'dian Cfusto'-.' r,"ecor To

,ca.len dar year .., but r"uns: from, MaIsy to followi ng A.: -,pri'p j
lie in the initiating calendar' year!" ansd .thre. in i
bgo "th v stat'it ics the i ni an dat a ..'. Could be cnvei":.ed "t,
bec:ome< d ip",mt !.y ,:comar:, able to: ov, :um., Cus t~oms data. oa :. tw. s
V e :,oi 't, ".thie in. ia dat ?.!o*. c a ar !e con id re as.E re:,'" ,'. *t lativeq

2,22 j a. 's 'imp r .ear i' TO

Af a, i irrespective of whether
'Fi[ :Z '-;'', F:[ iOF 'i F'-P J;~ ,Z 2 F :' F. ":i!;::

: .: t F2; F .' l"'i l FFI':;; 'XJ n'F ,, t";"i '
japa/Ho1 Kogaw -a/ucenc

imprts for this

V he F-Q ?i';' r**:'* i. i]h i
For, t emerge, 'Fhe

1 i n. ;on-h i.!.

* Jto the g i i i tiF
calenar yers a.J
TI no ir fo 'F. F

t P o Ap il
to)" thF.nve

! 10, Thwy contaurt Ole same amnoialy%

s't.e is s'm, T f'i;.e i Fs.i
tile~~~~~~~ ''"tr OFte -'vq rni -
O'!'Kwasi bo .K-~ .:t 'i.t: P~m a- rli Jqdl }

ita;-r ie-." .s is ,:. ,=al -,a:-mk by ,jqiwQ,. A,-#y j" :, c.,.rt

; .ie. n, -:eT toa ,; aJ ; :o !![-: :,
;": n!:,:' ci J;,:} o ..i 1 'F b..; ';% .:,

: '2['" bFh' TJ' v .4 ,'i['FO.4]F, I-!\F : '' o !F i'' ''w %. F:' 4: Fj .u.. .

[}T f' I FF'FF} JTK. '='-.. .." ... :,"" J-":J ': } IF- F>:;. ""V JV : '1::.,..;" y'ti....":" p' il: !"p .

* l' "4 FF1 J ':'% .... '4.-- 'F''" '-,, : F' 'l', '?'i':'' ,-, "!' F1' ,.t -.V % ;."F' :' ;F' F 'i .' ~ "F F' ''-e* I .'F F'

F' "e r, '"" P '".. ...' F F; Ffi ;'F''.,'F''' Y',: "!T :.''J F'', '''F'':* i:- p. ".i':2-
Potua accede to the Ccienhn 1-F!,r F" d unti 98 and Fs a

Fi: ..'''. 'F Ft:' > -.! :\'F' D 'F'F1' 'FF ..: '' '-F J\', : "' i. '''',f: :, 1 '... .. -" 'i S "' ,F' V,' ,: P P ,-: J.

F' o F F F') n '' ',' i F '" F : F' F '.,:1 F'': F'a l F',F F !, .i '.!. 'i: .t t,' ':: i i ,F ) *' ). F: F" r 'u".o
Tig{,. in ap.. arent .!,in.: the, sb% urge,: of:: im ports in th mdTa ENanaheem-'

cosgnet whi'cFF arie ''' Maa wer 'FDui Fand FF 1''F declaration V

,.. FF-, i "!2! F~,l i~"O L'Pt'"" F""'4,fF'IF'''''IL '*-: PP ,':: v'..I }F ('{ 1,< r P:'DF~' ;L "' :' V'~ : d./ i't F)")'-.

F': J FF F-Y..O I, 'p r 'pi 'F [: F ... 'ii' 4 'F'..i .'F F :'F ..


].L*Q: :t 7, .4 H -,, ] -ai .;,' -: *" : 4i" a 4. 4 ''. '4;[ : } : .. I i > *iD 4' : I' ", b ..... 4 ', t :!F i ...

4.: P ~ ,::,.,', z:, 47i '4,- "4':-;'ir i,:. IL'e'H .' .:':' -"iL '! .4 i ,<',,...f.. '4, t 4'.?:.r "

4.44 ". 44-4 .] ;i. '.-. 4-.,,.-, '.'...,,,4 ', :. ,,:,.. 4 ,, .' 4: s it.. : i :t ". ..... .. ',.' : '.. ,*'4,-i 4,4 i .l' 1 4w
2,26 Sin'apore al ...
Kong and jaans trde inee thi wa so muo th.ae4 n1 n

4 4. L P ,'Y', 'a4L Z ,. 4:: 4:~f". 4 ;"'4' 4:4}' "! .': ,T if'::: 4 .F S ,h : : -: ..: "' ,'4 '., "'4Lh e'4 .-j i. t-i"

'1' :" T 4.i 7, .:,z 4 ,r4.. .. c .E I .--'-,':' *'m.? 4 {.-..' o ': "

4'':''il ''44 i::i: i,=_ ,: ... p r .' : .'.-:. : 41' '4. 'f-a~ :' ,'4'. +" ... + ,,", ",,.. ... 4 '4''b : r :t, ',r "' :,:, ..'444 44' 4 +,"
] themy i.' -: VO,. M of M AY I Q 7 :. '- .,.

b'e:.-' s g posti 444 when..' it, .acce d-e t:o '', 9,0' 7. .
2,427 Table 134-42, preent Thailand' ivor imot for ~.4WO ,. .;-4 1 086;:a.pattern
of geeal les tha 5 tone annual T4abl 14. sh'.Kra ivory impor",-

Wa wit %o t iO sh anters 11v, .44.11 OV& siiar ni.1

Tables~~~4. 4"5 21 ispeetd; al 2,Teipr r n4 eraic, Out
geerll downward,4T> reaiv to447: the4'" siuaio which prevailed in44 the'4" 19704444') .2
44 Pa irke 4: 197 1,'' '', s ts the'41 'uV'4.f of'4 a,4''. to4' U-'4. 4 31". YT,4,4 1 am!'
general decline of 4444F4u4rop,4e0a4n ivory uses,44.4'"~'T"' .1 '4444' '4.1K 1-4-

the imtany grades of ivory the quality variation
within ,, frica: W'e Fiumner,:x.ous political and economics.

fop %th, F ^':e: of deeter'msiining tr-eid-s in iUn-ii..., r'
d ce cu,-; a e",

Iuek, it itha fea onh

1 ]L O }">1 : Kh = I t:-} .;A ZflO ] -, =. :,. 1 W I ; .. ''-'.if-, ...:.q "L.! 'V .;. V t.,'-E I -]

--1 1 :' .497
the index ich~ 'c ,::\' .... "rate o i:% tfonm s in t,-e;-va..e-,ofoaw!

i..vory aroun 12% s that this ra Io

increase is m r ni itf

2,35> To.maue R eto, the

tha i~f ] i-n k eeph.i.:. w itih f i eld., exr:wrh. i

ti~me_, a: mope<. co-mple:].t.e mset of uhystoms ,-
sou4 r2.ce a i the Pic.ur-

.Ustoms:r :
,me in Afrikca -- n c'.ofomity wi.h
1 J i ,:- l .-!.:_-::,- }< !9 Wi.t:.n c-;: mor"e
sta,.:: andl~c the",- him, to::. ques,:it~ion" or ,:hec!,
c ould. i rmt!'.caub l.?.ed iy b~e ov ed'!

.....Y O U F -....

aj All Pa rties:. -ento CIT::ES -::- are ., req-u..ed to subite Rnnual report at the: endii. :;in ,-

S. n:.' F 1*, 2 ':,.l :. .. .... F*
of eac calena to' Wn!--e Conv eion's Secreariat y, ;'7- trad i

the eof listied o their Conven-:p,:,ts bio 1U. puqmn to:: toh,: sub0--::] ,'.:,; 1"... ,
a l i' T 'hbod L:', I e' mom ri 2oL s W. ', W y reco ed ,I'
ii n ti ie an... reports, --r: ai d wba to the da J i, : e:
immediately rnt They ar:.

',: I F(e i ory .s nake:; co G :{ .,:i J I'' ''. f''2. 'I "':' .' -i -. : ,:i.1.;;e e -
( J) Th ex en of:ul"; th, :cen' CITES d:;' :is t p .:-::e W ii nhy WE : numbe of
don thi in Afic Anoa GaoB pCt ~o r

pi VO ~ F;I' 5
the motn ioy onrefreap* hc r o

WKi' i) ]in'. .a sim !;ia confusing- 1 vei,' .. raw ivory in cls i d it e e a
.cateori e,, "coercia", "prsonl" or "hunters".. trophies)

I an difeen contie clal iffrn rtraWi
( vi i.i ) "And as'.:: w, ith t! he s .,-:'la :ist.,i,:s:, tih.e' entrr' ies. ar.e ','c! vu nerabien.:d
to human e:r'or; pa:rti]cu].arlwyi. te are centered -in borsad,.ii!. or
thet belief that there is;: little Mie~ihood of themf ever being
looked at,

33l,,:. s Certaicn arb'i.trary ps we re t aken" t;o anfalyse. the WT daita ,: cL i.-h--. lis t
onl classifications accetedas awvor ;,;]-wer Rg: tusks" digits; R;:m ,,ccompar.ying>, t...1he f~ormer : :indi cate:.:. d we .._ ighyt 1,-u-:;l. y 7v .inr, k, so:,

re :port!) ,of, ivoryv only~, D0 igits +? acco=:mpa.ny:m :.ingq the.: latterk.. indricJated! a: number., OF,!

3,4 W= it;h t:he ,exc, repti:on of -,ome, ......e ..... 'I-most no ot~hwev:-

tuk s,' .'. this.+ declassification' wzy.;- ;ex<:clo,:k-d fro.m' calc:ulai ng .~i r'aw., ivory",. arm:,u,,rnt..

as , clea .rly inc ude w. aste P} ,' SA ; rim ;t.iarly "scraps'. ,l %" Qts':;f",) .... ........ etc

:3 L; Tt, .', Y i i V ( 44'' '4/4'k'.: .: r> it,
5, 17 ; kq ".derived from.; the'-O ; ; ivory pe- :,rmit
O Fhe); l CITES data.i~,!R areO h~bfi';Ltl' i T':

ai.cussed i. the n,- setion),

a -.e 261 W ch .h.tlh- ,c.
0-: yea.?r .;.' -: .:-..1 .:tb : "Ll i m 7~ .' r r

,or"ts? thanw refleati< ons.' of: no: tr.ade,

33 Table 28 prese.-s. o Aric-a { n Par,ie ., W .,. .,s they ,,' ',..
o d t cntient o ",t accessions,

1-In' .'4r'4 '/4 4' t.

3,94 Table 29pesnswhtCTE a
betwee the to .ls A:
tonne~l:-s bet;:iween 197!.-}9 .... 197 Pap>:
(.31 ,: Parts stated.. ':-

tonne 7 -sL-,is from African. contie whic h :, h ..

1 c v r ... T eh r -

.4.a Pate otdep, tn 11, '4
4:. .-:'' 44 ,' ,T 4 4 4 .4 1 4:,:i) p 1-,"1 1 -- 4',i "
a Parties, in addition to the a4ounV* .
.... th-. iiey lot! r"ece.-ived',,H~ h{ a Afr-Y i cani... ":
Vorfed ~ ~ ~ peonn an addtina
r"ot yet, acc da tov. the C7C.;i-;-. ; l ]onvent} L; ions.,

3,5 All

weight Of

hove been
tok. kg: wei.ght1
a. sampleif: ] of

o .'.u SA.e M a,'.,i' Lh 1.:,. f, "- r:..: k i.U i I., ..-.
2[1,{. Wiped", Fu ther{..h n a l ;: ,:, ) @, num ar of :-: 'Oak rlov b:., er enl~i ,

3,1 The su of *eept rmAfrQnd u u

an imp rt rs re or s As .a t i t u t m lli' f

f rol t~ o,,d p r h x o t r ii-
t h e i m p r e i n t h a f o l w i g h e w y *e* vi a

:`w1 1- l, i st w re I l a l

co r l t o be w e ex o t an im o t h at e e e r he o

export/import cosgmns ta ace oL O -0 9 9 sy ya
centre fro th re o s of a im le o 1li t
caegris;thseth ArianPa',6ipachd nd Moe thr arie si

4...] J ? ,O:L' ii.:'J P~f ii
II 21 4 r'44 T1~ 94~ IE 44 11 IP "" =711 444 134 '' J''~. '' ''I 44..

C >4') n ...1':'F 4; 1: ': r. .,-"" [::r ,',41 >z' e.,.' w:;. d ,:V J ]'rg'' '4j. <4 ,, <44: o'4 :4.4 )44f' .I ?'
Fo s '. held in 1 T in S[ p ''"144 '3.

A ra,' n c u n tr' s .. e e contr' i -. "'. : "'.'. ..' T "i /- i "v. ..- ....

...1 T i "". . ..... ...- ,: : 4Y .4 444; 4j .. r'4' 44 l r. 'A ... 11: 11' 4-,, lr I ....... 4 )".: "i 0 1 ..,' :.'-'"

'-''4''t tb.'i! "t ". '-,: iv -,r ........... I .> .1 4 "I-' r, r'14 .. 44" r,.- :I. .. .4''', : ,:, 'e 1 1.=.. 4 :.
ti .4, k. 4.-s 144V~ owad eac wc ~ limit Us 4'th-

24., ;:, ':.11 i 't:'_ 4''. '4 *'''.E' 1-') 1 ''._ P V ..... L",i.v = ':: ''..: Y 4 I."1 e '' "1,o.. 4." ._ ,,.,,:' .,4 ".;"444 : 44

..4.. -. T

14 1.: E 1'.'.- ['U 1 21'. 1., ';..,) LI ',I I:,' o 1 4 4 !'.'.5]. jr i'.'' '' aot ';14 -i1 -.,44~ s i l:, .i ,4.. 4

A 0', he i. de- was 4 en up a th t! T: .*: ,c o -1 1' Th' i 1-1
Brses [4une4 19842, 14d a4. resluio reomedn its adotio wa p'assedV4 ~. 4 4,~ 4

'.1 4 b.,'I~b i 4 .' 4''[ I I 4 i I 4'Pt. [" '..",C ~ '4, '4"4 .;'4444 4, ':' r 4'', 4: i 4'':> -[ 4,.: e. 1 [To 41' "t.1' 1 .4 .- 14
444. .... -..", "- A4.. '1 -.)',/ >4e-4./47414 I4...', 4 .'44 i''" i'>- ... r: .=. r":i:-.'i t fo' -4 ::-.'' 4 ; OT' A4 l 4t4 4

-, ... ....... .;'Hf[ 'VK4. 47,"./t'4i 4."1) 'fil] ,e 4 i> .. '! 2 -!'} i !,'4IU",74: ',(' i 4 'K ..4 4'.: 1i. 44 K..' .1114-; ": ,l, t '4.' -I2 T .4 4' '.

'4.4 .4) T' L/ .44 : 2 = P 4 -I ";i 1.'> 1 -" '" 4i! .1 -'., O 2" ; .I 4 ] S. < ...-./.'1 .... 41,4:4/ ; 4.1 4!' :.'1 4 .4 T 4Z0 >t .It!:
A... 444 I .' by R Marti of d lop. the i 4i>'., '1rthr4 t. ,r
ultimat ely tie F.w4441 4, 1fTn 'f th4 P a rties '11.". ro 4.-,, ,:o' '.
Afrca ivr ''duin 11

woul lii the numbe o11 tusk 'he exore anual an' notif al other21441'4'.1<' 41 '' 44 4
Par ie in the44. of '[P14e '4. 1, '1''.' 1,.- '[4 ''v444''ere, 4'11'
ag ee en by al *f optin Partie 'cuh no 'lo imp rt f "44v4 414'o~ 4 '''4 .4 4'' 4 :'~ ii
an4 *4444 prodce that exeee theC. notfie l'imit: 141.,1

thDs cntinngth, IE dat ky J 96;&19IY,
exp': Fart!ies.: to UT 'ES W~.d not { e to:, b:.'

Vie.c.e...t sp r sm n tr ph e W,-Ii 4 i "Y

in it nu l. eo t)

tu, u the syte NO be. .'! i
e it a s it t .4 ca7 countrievs WK se [hems: ..I,..: e*st w 41%

highe than1 the amount w:-*cl-i ac-n'l p o i ks.w-t
ini,, !ions .: in 4,7: abov,>' ..'; a:Y ,,.i subs .WU.MZ.d:I' amounti' "o.f Worv'L: w. as. ..:! 7 n .ot.: verif ed..

.. .. La ..:, ,: -- ? ,::arlle.:,,e.,t ,:i ..,1 i t. ':} i } -,-. C .. .. .. ., F

A.! 'A--A Tl:, A'm "A.:i4A' L% .4Af'-, .C. ,,-: 4 4<' F'.D:l,-+ : fo *'$ -, a,,.: :, C" Sf f :l, :'./?'y''~ -:,.-.. :: .
is Co0PVII CD Co o Y X P ..'1 D G V3. .'T D

..... ... st m l to ,fl.3.+,.i ';" : "o, th b ok ar i.n direction; ,to"- '_ Jo } hi de 8
or u-nde~r'state' volumii'es or values or &Dth," On tlhe5^;s gompayu?, a;nd in tche

eithe".'r imrrpor't's.i or e>x:ports as l.ike.l.y tco ,s ,.,v+ :.:. :
b:6, :2 i l 'iA fY i r c an:d tom s f ac --t c" v nn pla t".h:e .r 'r t r ri-.t.-uJf -,-'i b s '" e 1.'c.?
o-. stIJy E--ir'epi sparse and f incormplete, iir e dataJ*-?.,':.,":i:,.:.^? fo.ror ml or.ef tr-r vo :,

covn secutiveyars between, r1i979dl?; and ylew'c07 are cmly avaUc't fo Ero? si

CIT i istaents and then t, 'of othe

Cu' 'foi'' '' GC u
bl 34 a d .. to .:.. [ .aue :) f .'l: 3
:yg."-4V''' 3! 454 r :." 7:I 7": 1"3 4 ."t7 "t C : Z: 4n'] "! i;:'l''4'.F "' 1 '' l4' ':'. y *,:\4.3 : : 4' l' ": 0'

4: :8"7D : i '.': "A."8:., :, :, : ;.. .." : :, >.::' .7: : ,t' \! ''] .:,$ :: 4 i< 44, t: :7 t IU ."/ 4 : ~ : ''1 : 4s.4] ''..~ 47T 7: 7t''
import:>::0s d:eclared ~c fr:"or: ;m 2 the countr.; y in q- u cef':. stion:,

6,: :3 H l':y ,! ap::a- 'Ts Cust ,{oms f :i.our.n"s -arem ex .clu e ...... tot latte.......t

b u in- T' 4U ':S" : 444:'i, :t e ... -. :past 4 :a is l:r:ead y: .: ..... .'. e p a n-: A .)nv':r : 1 .. 'l

v r d' .4:t4 yf4Ar i a4,4 Mo't. i'.'" v, ,':.eds: ''41 f'r.:"-' r : r:,
th F r Ea t Where an, import was reportedy s.y -: *.-.;;v: "- 'i-r -, ,t-.j ivory:{':,
well Pave. -i.::i; or ig-:e therew.',. :< D:,. ', -':~c 5' ," ].:i N i i- c{::k:-vc-t rep!:.vo t:>: ::;5 '.:% : i:

years prior,) t1:c::h:-':o dispatch to 'fi japan, Such'"i.: : :ivory:,.' wil .l :!i ;i ] have t.i:'n : i9 '...eei

.i p.i ..'.4 .;.4' 44''i 2 1.,. .. '.:.
successf. lys led y across... t! aR Sai' udi Ara.'bia o a.vo.i
errat.,ic], t~o p:.erm -it' cal,.culaio;n.,:r of a ,,,re(i]ictio f;ac o as;,.': :- i.s.. -Tim case with
Keny l}a,

5, 7 The 4'4 has p r,,..,e.dl very',,, 1 e ra t"i or. 1 C -7 E-8 j'R a.. (0, 2% o f the
n'ati.o.a.l, fig'.. ure), C'ITES fi' d t fr.o.r Par ie- '.s ho have rece
impo;rt;s f:ro:m' the i ndxicat.==ie evenw'ge",,r,' of. e ka .'- :.,m ot!.er

-1:. .,,3' ,44. .,"y,4;,44,;..!.. 4 4.1 '.;' J''1' 44i1" '4 4" ,4-': ;.
C o re .por-ts, Th e ......... for in.
Partiess' accredited; ivory. c ... V P :om~linrg: out! -, Sau' Rtdi "A'rabia : '-i an f om' ,tke S.ubd.arn, T-wi =

docu .me, nt-:ed i-n the Finng, Kong'; D: =istom. r'ecor..,d (Tabl,!e 8): arnd: include ,,ed in -abk,:-
3- in par':enhess after t'he "-.. Cusbmm" column, '' j tis b.i "Other,
Custo.:,:ms;" and Umh~ Cius.t;oms total: ] fo~r thc, 'Su',-_:.n ] 79 ....) !.8 Si.-r! ,*f. 't.
"Others,, .... fT ES" to.t.a.l, the two0 data;' set s su..pport~~ -:,ing on an..rol~e"r

50: :en y- ea~r.s- i. v!, ,t ich' Dot~h CITES FF and : Cust.o.s,!.. b. ta ;we'= a.r, .va: iIat:,7 e fo-r.
compa,; r i~son, Tabl.e 3-4, .P.,,sh w tha-,t Custo-ms totals:: .- weree. g]r..atei,=r in four,., of th..
co4n4trie.:. Bots-w.-a, Kena,. Malawi and Fou Afri -c, CITES da t

greater fo:r jJ'v 4 : f-,;l.!..:.m 4.1
0' With the. Cote ''44' (which14s-not 'a Pr to the Covn:o,th -
11......... cata, Thos Pa rtie .. .h i --.c,.n:; hav e 'rece v iv; 'ory friomn

"indi cat .'.,@-.j w-as e:::rpor"ted,! Two poi~nts: s.,.,i.s,.v -.o< --i :', ']Fhe ( I iP S .'@ 'Pt.'
(Table .).1. are far great r V its k-:l.,- ,

..:T ,, ...'.., sda ,a for. nine years!; 0,4 hwo or it-: .) of Aqu:,o ts!. ",-.5i s' t"-
t;h;at Cote'.;, d' Noiv :re a c-;o..-sidairstbd::,!( ,':ivor ,c::o er Vn, musrt; have- on liarge:K
44' ''' 1! .. .. 'V <4 40 2

i-"I" r4i C,.7, ,.,.o C.4 r 4.s

4 ... ..rist a} :rpA~ biologistrrs (e, y, Ro~ thw prs., co m di a~,- %% ........ a......

'i arti i ia iv (, mad in.-. t he 'hi. ]. go..':2;4 ". '.4 '. h.v been told f .o an
amalam o'f pow,4red fish bones ad plastic,), it i, fan" cheap. r tha iv-ry,

are cif.,::o r: ,-ulki=d by, :it5; ava,.,;:,ilabi liti.,.y :inr -Ai,-:c.a -. te., 0nm e of i' y,,,

ex::ports'- t.o .lta ,, (1980", =: )7 to.n.e-,-.= 1982<:..: 20. to n s 19:83 28i: t.onn"es).>

0';,3 p%;7:er' k-g.[) su,.,ppor" ti. .." s cont.ention' ,

into:8} and r'om rt fro 8o-u&R ,"aA i r }e ,,p#)ic over, the past tw do.f; ", yk d:, .- ,'. so,. 'no,
418 e'1ort), imot int SmT Afic show4m'
$}i' T '' '; 14.4.1i 4'. '', po}. 1 .. ,. i~% 6 .. ;'1' .. <, ,. } :, r" 4 ), ]. 14' '41' ',' .4 i: 4, "4 4t''

two Loma a y' = e: ar in' 9 0 k",7 'bF. +ri i N "oe: tvi as":~p' :in 1-9!8 7, Ori- ,! th.e ,;ttan@
44' : : .,:. 44,.;- 4 .':4 o ri''9'41'"l ,,"1";. ... ..," .........4-,.,. ': a ... : .4 4!. IPr !" j .,,.. .-,,',. ; ,~ 4" ,::?F .. r I. '.!',!%4.
,.. 5'r ,o.4' 4 1,: r',m ",,' i,'t 4 .. ; ,rr's ( 4.... 41, 7; 4:.', i) O 4.44 ''.., E '..ra !.' .!$ i I4 65
1,.r44.4, } ].';...4 -,;!" ,,47 144,1"'" i 44:;h 4" a L.' ;,14' 1:r,.,1' ;[ !n,'.ri.' N. 7 ;,',';;-'Ifb r : 4, a4,1 .a+
!*",4) 1 export (u in Martin ''$' s ''905a data' 44o44 441$97 and .4hk 11. 4. ,4-4 4' ~ ..

( .770a.- 9'7n F oi t:'f '. ", .. 1'a I fTQai..'. 'A ,.

.. .. ...... I:'-' ....... I 9"ha l 'l79 -* 'llh '..'a !or 'tt-a c.... i : 'a. :l. '"ll ,jii1 k'Y" 4 ...
increa e ', afrom-, 2 to'Q. .'i W WI is a ., 6% -''nu- con'f'i' ',ing! t',he
avo.r .l e: por trend judged froa':' m i'.a .. n '.' im : IQit Af''r..-
between. 195 n,10 thi tr gend ha~s c.ontinue.d#.-J,

,a .... i a d pot aa s va
t n a l ark 1979), Th country's i .. caa.l i...... wh i.c

early,; 19, 9".0s=: (P ark:er' I 979:, Marti" n 19.7:,, h,>as. ,denli:ned: to arou.ndJ on~e t,.,, -

'aa:"'a ''.. .. 'laia.-; l'. "* ". ........., ra'

si a a.e : ,3 a"a ;i ] -. i a''p,.I]'~ ,:''i '-' :.: [ ,:i laa u :'' l;,r : .,: h:. : q::: :, e ta
.. .. ..a ....a a
that{ or ig! eil.awhere i. n tghe Southern Africa, .{" ..:n Cubst oms Uion :,:"'

, ', ." : ij i." s, ;,f a a.... o f I 'a it I aa f 'a'aa"'a
depenadena'aacya ,1 of it produc- ]tion'd i'si include' with'i 'b'ot"h Su Afr i s -
Cu-.shms30 '. ianj{. C ; data[C E{ven.q Ym, toe{:7 volum to.i. s. eem{ 5.B]ingl.y imuch la ge }.{.' !t.*}han

"''aID e .{.] ~ ." aall'TaP:., a: .,)'' a;~,., i4 ,, .Q ;a' ]" ",' .] ,"O .E tII' I '1' a '> '," i ..,.a 2.
-iga aep ocm e Na ib a Bot pr s 'eDD~; iryIa, Il I a a I''or
.1 i ..~a .. a la ... a'.. ''. 'a.. ..a..... ...
-A f o;r if:s rt ica, e -,i -e is inY k 'ee qpping O k .t,. y contention W'! D ,-,t W.,:,

i,:, 'r.,...d..eth--- combined Custobms: data;= pr"oduce a co:herernt pi.cture in keeFl .n,
W Ki-:i eventms- a~s re::..port,>ed from wt;'qhini 1w;h .,r:d,,.:. itself,-f The H O W&>'},:,,
Cexcept" ,F{:i So-qtrh Afr~icaB andK "{-:, k~: Ma W Und ::er:p.-reuot:, ,10 3,- WH -a degree- Wit...
thei CITE data. canno b:, u}: L TO [2 s',ed f: lO[, L i: i

CITES d'lata" are def."c.... t.

5, .a T ab l a6, 27 and a, ': a 'h '. .stress t:he' r.r p I .' aa'
r o and t i "rve h, i'

,;.p.:, a J "'.. :'.''ar'ii l''1. a )aaal' l"-z,' ',: ,e'l' 'a.,'?'a' '2_ "4a,'.!:ik~ :]y ., -l,'", ....:
ava.:kilable forx ,conra,".st: w~it :h t~he:- Afr," i.can* records:i Annual,:: rec:e~ipts,;, fro:m. the

.4. .. ... .. .a /

a 'a .. a.'.' :. 1 ,a .2 -2 ai
a q ,,a''1 t' h a a,.-- 2, 'l'!llI w -: ii,-.- : 'aA %/ ,'a'' c, (,4. r i''' ,,

The p r ite v erifications : i :in. ,Lahsaim a f i-oreid h'{ 4...-Fe`:`7 ....

id: l 1 .1u -, nf > y ,.. : ..... .Vo ". i~r "or :; ',' i:. l i H..,,-
1960s "i' i 4. ; ii t0ng and detailed i 4 '. 41. Customs r'.c'od .k ..
{ 979 anrd Ta:bl~e 8 ithigs Brzp" ) '. i-rtish.:f!: d-epe-r: We c., ,, it: {., star .,,:!

"thIe wh.ol:: ie CI:[TE=S ,da:ta ovev>.: ,,iew. ,
i,'i !e .:.. ,v e -:+.'e'n ho-,: T.. fl'[- ; t-k:i.. ,, :m outs@?; i de t-:)f c ,,:,h :,.: -:: :-

W' h..1 4444 C I F .4 Cla 4' .i~1i i I 1
p Pr" --" ........ { w t h,,:i. n A ri a i tse 1, 1 n V "s,,,me v e",1 r-, the H-e-. g 4 ,: rC;:: i d .

C P international system, 1 do n I t :ink i 'oes t':tmen t4o say ---

.. ... 1 V.... ..... H ,41 .. '. ~ .44' '.
1,'- -, .- i:, of wha it in", -"-e 't ha played ;my ce ntr ,.al taw
4 a ,e. .. ... ..... m l. the-'41' ivory trade. 4.,.

,_. '7 1 1 4i i4., 4' 4 .... 44 .' ..4 '. 1 i 4 1
wha ,--.-,is possible unde the: Conkic 'rivend io a nd:; whe:re :i'-:,- it Nils ,-.. ', { "icm

E, ,) 'I 4'Z pre ent two sots of data',4'74 ',, 4 .~I on derived' f ra the H41>' WQ.4 '' : '
5,20 v'.:r;l I ,. the annual tot. al4,4.4 of 4,,.4,44 Cuo and CI'TES8 dat-.'a .ar close: the

4~4 ........) ~ i' 7 '1 .141- .....''1' C4: ... : 4 -'" .. 44 4,4 ',] .) U @ ;'.. "1 O 4',
imported ..... 4' ."- 4'.' ., '.4 .r t e 'G

4 4'.h l4 ...=,Im L'J ... ... '(4 .... '',. n' ...... 44! : "i:k.r :1... ..1 444':io ?p : 4.',,.::, 4 ;- ,'4"4444 r'. ... ... '." b 4 0 ... ', 1" 4 '

t,. ,. : ii CI H'4..uiii Lipi.444 44.i-\" ,4 .44 ''. 1'414 ..... t "'- '.... ''"'.4'.':, .4. 5I! 4',," 4, 44'i 4 '444f : .-4'
Tof s do;4'' ":m." otal 1r; t" e :: n e e.s,
.5 ,:: 2 ,; -I,' -uf oP w radet tu otalse' .',-!ic ch not ".":w "tn '~-, equa-!'.ty in-.-'.dicate d ir .Y
"he su me odeth ai '. o.:L,-,'T S W ig .H K :'7O CL" M yq WO TWO ? i :>I::" = P i Ca t054 ?:.n : '
W vms "w )-: J M )herea the C S" tota ;!i.C '.. "l in 2,31 8 Wwp .y n i. s,; vi t al y tw c 0,Y:- .: "":N -'' .!the
P .. : f. ig_ ur 'S' A:IrC-iCi':'" aYV hC: h :: '+'i !.t'!' :: '-..ig v:; it :.- C !i !@.:a, :.

...ou.n." t r i es "Fr ie.,,',:. to J .d lita;!'..l is .,1 timeso as:'. :" Y;'':,, i; :h e P& p :,.. ,,:'

5,23 CITSF-., on .the other, hand, i ,W: wa s i ,k:ai 3 11 mo e -,re ." i t"
involve "as.' !"ii i ",,, 44'1 44.' 4.14 4. t. 1 '"4 r-' .: -;F :i
Si" .,- .....e v m a 'de this,, i;:>:- dent:i f: :i.,a tiL on bai--,: al: ...... ... 'Qr.s., ,; : ;ii.: ", t f p ,,a t rd... .
4'4' ,,.4' ... foolproof, Consignment .s.4 1 .map', j in th'e' K W

i t: was noV,
on : {A 4i.. 'I

h4i*4' rig As b .t 4 0'j '4,444' 1 '
love- bee 4. reaucr[t4'. conn.n 'Po.p n, ; ...... an 4f ......... .. ,
]44 i~d 44'd .4 4 .- ,"-"4- < '4 iE<; ~ .;) { .! '4')-J- 4.444 .4.4'.- 4 4,: : ,4 4, 4', ,;: 4. .. 4,'<;.

... ,44 ...... 4'' 4'4; 4. ,.:.-4 4 ', '_'.':i Y ; 'J4' .] 4,, 'f T'4"' ; ii.ts i;~z !. i" -' f ; i {;
4] 4'}l<- 4 i ~ 4''..... 1 :;' t% ,}. ;] 'i ., 4it!l ,. 4444 444 .b ,4-' '_ 444]. v ] '{;>: v'.S ,

44,-,4,44 vo4 ,t >e ,o 4T~ t. 'v,~ '4 4,":if a,,:; n m :4#l '~l 4t,.!,' !, o {;{!!7. ~ (;:)(r

Europ a.n 444'; io in. a w the .....

44'o "4hY 'A '-'i!J ,< .. .. ...l'44444 '4.& i 4I 4"44,4 .... : 4:, t}o .] '-. ," ] ...= ,: .=,h "r, -'44 rr4
4~- ;, 4' i ,,.' 1i2- 4"-- 4 .. ..' 4:il '.'# : 4; 4iV =l F i ,:{. Ai 44', '', 4 t' 44 4.iD:- ,
a -q':.4444 A,' 4' )ri ia~ 4 :7 4 < ". l,'t _(4 4 .4. .- ; [ -: S,24 44 '4 's to d sho how d if4'ul' it is -

4." 9 4 4 ~ j, 4" 4'. 4 4
1 D, an,4 dr 1' i rre. pe .Qj th4 ac44.acy, o 4 ). : t el--i-i

4 f44 4 *4! .t~ ', 4-:~ ~ i< 'i ., 4. 4 i 4 4,4,4 44,24 ) '4 'i ,' ,.- i < ) .,< ( 1 '.4; ,T.-4. 4'ib

..4' '4,, 44 4, 42 4. = .._ ',_, "4.. V .. .. . ther, indeed, 1. c ra that there 'i. c!

-44 .. .. .;t) [ ;i ] 4" "=' '';{. .. .24 4 44 .' 21 '' '24'D.'{,b "1 V' )f 4.4" { 4 :.._ 44,494 'O 1 4-f 4.,Lf' .\ .. 44. 4

4,4,- 1 .... .....44'." '" -
a,4ceptedof + ..- '4 4-. 4,,-, 4444444 4.4 -4 e 4 -'~ .tZ r.yvi a v i' Th is'.. D4, ,

..-j-.., .. ..... 4 4 ,,,- 4 ''-4. 4 .-4 --IO'. {7] 4; "o (iF
1.t ] d !i.:::,n.a!- gran scale] vt!. -.," < }iia TfD Bur "undi=.=..' an-d '- to Suda We s n l ob e v t =
ofrrc: th .,e iv r i,:a'in 7 tr ns t ."]o-and? .J_. nl- i Congo7:'f7 a n~d A s C',o]al Afr .,.. ,, i ca

44, 4 1.4 44 4 4 .' 4 4 '''1'i .4" '..-I 0 '])i 4'{ i 4 I ] if ]]i [][i t}{ :

4. '4 ... ... ..... 44D_;; -.4' '. d '.''p.4"'< 4- '
4i' ic (trade4244 4 and' 4u',.' i4.4 44, 4 .4 l,4 4.-4
Be g u no, it an Af ic n.ri.. t -J. t ;Vi:+ ._sc i
VYDW,, y ...{ an Afrca ori in reg rd es of ve acty" ,,. 'ois all' t< h a t U-,r'-

--- h~s co. ................... -Z.. ...where w){ri W o i)y hasi Amne fr. omit{
.wri- ld tan-a' a(~ greatIDO' dea 'l].'.' : more than i deft :aw,-w r to'i sm..i w .ny ,tasi- ths= Ou::,:.tthi],'t
2,25:'"/ Table;' 0.. re.'; ~I: .4"-,;;-presents th da'.;C II..taJ' "0" ow ... .....Tale:t .< 20[];. :' cmJ 8.. owmtr"y' byC : country
fo:m",o "i" ther w;:i!":yi th'-: : nai]%,onal C usl' )'t om and;.;' 'lIM7 enpor statement o-;,i';i .....
........... to.< Hong Kong -]IY' wher theyy" are;a-ailab
sioud N O My.. Kong i; .. -wt...
perit;IJ2I ver. ., ]]ificat" O i ons '. ...... :" in S A A g la nc e a t th e,. i!; ] : i l ( ]If 1r "' ':, '" ,= ]-."[ "O !;.;,]]l '<" : ::, "'''"
avai abl to thi -" y Vi- lac does no infe ..... u- ....

exPo er's". recomd-,-. -, C11110h (..:i ? u ,C[ -. al, u- U.p:syle~ss ..........res,- of 1 .0-

r.a ifory I trad 'i'at'-L E. d i1 fo i 1 -S5 t.'. th 98... n 19S7 ii bhoave 'btel r le u o

a S.ius.ines:..5e or :iin, tf e ar.!.. added ( t o the C'.ustoms iho, 1: 'ta ,,th.
dic e a c i -''s red c : i d t be.q i2,% o th C t,' M',e..,,
discr:Yepanacy is: reduc'.,:ed a l;.ittl;e more } : if wh,4at; a::-. '-ic 4,o .1e a! y o:.!'a ti:-:.:

digit in ,986; the: valu]ie i.n" Table 8 sugges.{ !ts: :thef CITESc figr shul be 21.....
no't' .), ",

5, 30 Whi i. 'the ivor" whch
indeed likely to have comeo overwhelmi.
been. a soc iated w it" a eqiunged Saudi Arabia.'s role fron.,

bte o -ented clerly DO.. th e, .
Qnr Vollume Of .iNOPY Was imporited" P'

i 1'he C TES pe rm it v:" i f i :. io
inf. oaf, t->,lion i.n connect ion witih the "o
ti;s s* c t" ivon,

5,32": Wit- h one ou s a d n except... .ion .... ....

P itlynak:,:: "WHMr::ar i:-nia 15S.'.e-Ci TIO{ .all.yntia.l r

data'.= shqow- it.ha.t the: cor relaio:..'.cns so oat:,'
be :z. .achie.'!0ved (,

ie wasf 1believe pr.ct infd ," u-if
1 i venf'ififif r er t m : : i, ii.:" hiy,
prceur ha 'pcke '7th na

'.if for The 4 r L i year ot'f' M-.7

5,3:3 Zim:.::=.babwe has p.roduce,:- ., t :-i: o-l,y:.:y domestic:::::::: CITES::: data.$: .that totbals.-.- mor~e

CITES dat.:,,::i:!a. (47 ), The reas.::ons fo"r: tis,': l;]i~e ::in! a cleri cal, mix listake::.- mad.-:ze whJ ile

ief:: in. mu ch wh" w s : ,. ot, n r, i. -i
,iat or craft in g' ihi I t e t,' t '.y "11 int eme if 'f t i

e i i h i 'to s a t c prouce si i ,7

c:: me rce if "':'e :'by 't, if I "I e ..*1..if -,.lC
;-OPP,, invoved Fuur anlye .c vw ] ]i::

... ... A ..C t Co t -, it ,.,t -.i. a o : ... ]
C.f~ y dficln, renfrcn th ie erainl pitr n

;:CeC:-& :-I-0 : : q', ...I-pCe : .~ Ci]*:":-l -:. ... ., ~... CHCC CCI .].I j ]p no. C. C 1C IICIC.. ... ..4.,~h

g., :3 '. I T K .n 1, H7 is ': I.4',.,IC- OC r ,:.I, C ..r co .r,-!:4 i.-: .! C -.j h -,-i C

C(!-L] ". :,i- C1 C1. .] 1. -1.' ... ","IC,. ,.I... -' '" -.C C C .:I. ( I'C.Cio P.-,o H ,:r,:; -.u "... j C '. ::;.. ...
Kon Cutm andC- CIE data In Boswn they are th same inoeya,

Hon Wxy CITES 132 kI andI th per it 203, 411 1 HI ICC *4.- (3, 1L. .

H .. .. < '- ,.: u...... ,> :ICC .i V ..C: _.I -- v ..... I-, IC. 4 ,, C :. g c,.,*f: ?, i : .. .T' ::

CCI.-m v CCI .... .lC. .lL..III V. .i'. J ClC.. CC I C .< 14-
receive ]d tw- t:,mn, fro th Cenra African

I,'::C' O f U ~ 1C *Ie a i. u !",:: i: !: 0, *, e; .F ,:~ Il1Cr ji..C:.: C oi:i C :. C, Ii ..C:,',!- --.1." C I.,>;
veifcaio syte di no.eet ot fia eiidprsae12
of what Hong; I',..C custom reeie fro that conty bu tis figr
only 91 of ~ fWj CT Sucla r

veified permit suggest greater, exports Cha ackowlCge byteHogCC.

icI Ch.2s meU A tlCc'~. awCt ar KiC
C 'n Thy ~ C' most liel reason for ths e o b
co.frme, isCoLuan ~ iiain otc e eodd pris
ve ifedasa C.CCf> ivoymvmnt-wihmy vtb h cs ,Tedscrpn.

5C3 AsC alrad iniatd wheCreCCC Qrp.-E CON are C .1;
commodiies intranssipmnI ybn aent-n
scCnCCI: in th reors if not ~ I .1iC>I ; .; I
constitute I( Cn..tFeid ws vi nt Gra
reoc are thrfr de iin of4 posCI t' of 'IV..,-
ar ie in Wng Kong via then, fro Af rica'' Thi Q. furhe copiae C,,
the. pratic coenei CCCn 1978 Wake 199 fC~g i w 0 o
commo ities~,CC Given thi una ifa tr I `;o 1. i T LC~ A
unae th EuropeanC4C, C C Cutm ivor exprt to Hong Wng,1 nor included1 them'
in FROM C37,I' '' .1.

5,3 Tabl 37I list eleven C Cuopa conre V 1. ICCIACC.C CCIII they FAM

Al are' mebr of' CCC Wi fiv ofI1
C-L :) rIII Swi zer an i-4CI dII) LI. .ICC'C4CC ,CI'id not. repor 4CC" .C'A'CIC. CCC4-

.c,.CC i CC.. tride wit Au tra YP CCIrl

y. e r~p y i n .... I i, ii c"v h 6 ~ -. ,,3, 7 i;,r t 1,:'i,: S s-A i m :- ii ... t .; o 1 o -: i l o

se-cond. i s convet~rking' tfusks n"umhers';:i tfo whi 'iby'\ 1' mull'itiplyi~ng" by itv'i3 Agai r
th'is can be conf:i rmred ,

E" ,40 PW1 A ium~ joinesd CITE^S la'te "" in 1984. "' .'- :].nck-.. Qh'i0'**-*C3TR "i:'

CITES datia'3 whic>h:h is 72% of the!? Customstotn' al "of1,

ikl~"! oi q C'is'fcr:ito s ( resspec tively 83%, 7"1'% andj'

51 i ve "* ns d Europme'st pae t l r b,.i ii k ?o!o `T,

E~ri-'di t!K5th cars n o rrelatdi on Bs3ci i,! in evide nce Tt in?: it-'s acnnua rep:;' ;ort

5,4 ji,; th-; Honig sKrct io""i sn C. 37 o l and Hoisticularly K
dis:a'[ 'ppoint.. ,.. [C'" :ing ", No ns of them cam any her near" tc' ...m"atch ,.,,, ...,*'' ',-',,,.,. i'- --. .. q. b!. ~d'=in t,, QO.:

Ta z n an H n Kon ... ... ,P ..i ati L 1' wcul ha"veJ...]i *_:.t-" #' : f":; [ -tll }'to::[ haveL("

.. .. .." zz i: A.', Tht pe= :-' r mit', ver[ ''Z .ifi cat] r : ...ion dat fro'm[ Br.ita",.l h.$ cp1'._i ".nJ, Fraric: ;,~rt. a are,

bPar, s p '&

_. i:. ":[. Il~q .1.2i.~... 'I .. : i L-'-i 7T I..&..
not, cloely ben 3% :

Mina a I, iwvi rtees t t th e iV. ii a m-. e

f ac to, cur- re-ntly axi: i~ndiependent; n:orw--i:art--y Mate-- -.has:: !"' comm:'itmnent; Q--I

7 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 'i' otr 111.* fHn: *,.

details, with. the 1',0 th' '
susatal les than MO ~ogKq utmsfgre 1

-h dicrpac has no be investigat e nod explained, The

t _- ... .. -w n ,l
defin tion .. ...... ',, of raw ivry That no ep n i has been made ud r e a
-fithe i, p r it sy te ~indi ca+~te should haveh be. Fi2!'),, i. iv:..Ai, 'H: 'A" 9~'7~I

tonnes,~ 1 Empha is is i plce on .v n l -eaue agin T believe tha permFit,

isue have?2 bee take an'Jfh transa tion concluder.`i -I *

SA Tiw Asian and'i MA cha i n a Ke3 co 1,. 1 pm '7.s,~i. thefa:syen r.,7fi r Va

eventually issued.. were v.- Afei. n!Lausann, no + of'[ ..
wh .re Vie i v r.y originatd: 1 t W es th c: i r-:4 !.ha !e -.I y ": e r o
(.people ;wo an truy ve ,4:rify a perm!;Ti. ; is he ..' o'.r e 4. 4she whisedi,

5,62 The previous paragraph records an observation in w hich two
governments acted' lawfully, but c land.'estinely, Another c-ase cajni:erined a
414"V:47!:, 41r:42' Tf:4 -:;7 [ ,,1 ] ..!~," ,. Lo!. :4;'. ["41 .y ,: i; p72 v : 4 ,: *4T ~.' 7.S 44>', 44::'~i L ,9

"._;ti:4 44:4:"4 4, .,-' .:,;'" 4.o er~' 44 '!4.t,! :V-. "'.:4 ~ ~ :Po4' oYi. 44.? a~r:h ,:? i{ 4.'.k 47:,, ,,( 4,-4a'
::._."z'4' ,, r, -- !4j,,":,,_ ,2.
bot2 h fe[ -::. y ,-., ve.if t.,' "Phe -. ii. Ph soma;K .,ne at .
de:sk in ifar-p: ,away S:w:itzerlPand::, Havingp.: seen' theG ivoryy m:'ovang:: w, MY> own y es ?,,F:
and l 4-, ,I h, pe.'.,': l.[. a th ..i:,.. ..:b vnt ... i 1 hf a. c J .. .
repo:.,:rrted-i :.i.n e i-.i:her a'.nnu W relpor-ts --!r- tI e !. e. rlr a:-'" it, v:r i f cat o: d':,:F:. t.

ti iTmierchants ".-.oach.e, ` M Auth rit...a i '. ti I': y :", f'or a sum,, in :

t e"3:'~ r 4-,n 14,, 44 J .c-u4a s ub-., c. tial in.creaseda, W h- ing v ti.his 4in
come4, to. .. ..7 a, .. -! ....'. v : 7 -,.E Nt. .: *1:4:4, w-n ,

b,44. t: n tonnes of ivo:r. ad fLe.w i[ to the c
it acquiredsc the documents o1 respectaibilityv
4 a q,'4 :i N : .1 -....4 P *~ '~4 4 .. .....c,: fle i 7 i --:,.... .. ..- *..":: ,
verified in Lausanne, and eventual: ].y 'arrived in.

piece of paier is issued, enur! of a slot"

naturally be vo>ie ,- becaue te., -.- h 3 -4r4'r i
phys I :ica iv. :: or ag:! 1ains -the.' pe mi o -,- and r .. ):, ,auT

Oun;Try ofLb complianc:7He ,L Wer.7
444}L' .4> 44: 4 "; U444-4<, ,.-'"

444; i:-7: b :-,::-k -.b b-k- .::4 m op
e :-..q in c. ""
Hun Kog- n us ses
4~ 4, 4 '4The ~ 44

e====p====i====== == t~hat: lead.. m~e tor th:e m:attr:e of the low:: t~onnes;- o'f S:_udanese-z -,- iv'ory.
t~hat; the perm' it v- eri;;"Jfic t o sy::; :,7 s tem- state<: ::. i s wa.,-L: ";i:: ,F,7- oq : 98 and' F; ;,.:

5, 54 The 19;0:6 Hong:[ Ko.n,?g Custom.. s,:f-- records show,, 22,8807;: kg:# :A!::,,,red fromh the
'4. 4 ... 14 4. S.:n :,", -- ...44' .. .. ... 44 'T ,,= -- :; ,. ,=" 4,? !' H, 4,N : ,4,' .-.-4 .--.4 : 44,, e :.. i:44I 2 ,.444~ 44
S an7h.:,. : y K n C;T !tt e-e 4, T} (.l 4 [ :4g .14: .:, 4: r ..4.. s i Tr :y

ManagD;.:em~ent' A::uthor it -'. had ..... bee ap r ie .. ... it No...m
the@ matte-.r w.,. ..ith them,.` :

6,55-- Mo"re imp', rt" ant,,7 i7-Ji"e l'1d 1-I:
Muczh of: til;e ,:o:untr' v's Wewen:,t:": prt;"
Pe L,,,p! 4:,4s' Li .berati:oi,::n Army whi c, i -h is ;"

c::i rcumst ancsi-,Ye.s Nori" s. it.: in keaep~ingp
.4..,- 4. -44 1 :.
. ,r... wlx..Ild, e a: zero 4 44O- 4 1 8:5 h,[ ,

Zaire r,:- :bel-7 o -t.,e PL. have. W4 E

:: .. .44: 4,.:L a;. ,a' :44. P J 4'44 4 ,'. :: 4mi] "':

::JUdah 444 Ad:4 s 1 8:: ,",'es of ".4, `.,4'
o .is :i~n iV ... um,.a. of the Swi Lh:arn'
war.': .. ..with t~he .....
4 4 :, 44. V:,:,:., I ;4 2' 7. -: .. ...,4 } 444 .- !..,..444 ,,!.-":4 ...4

done so: thi:s W ? 1 ,al aw.,ar:e -t:-:at
4444-):i 7:: :4 4,44'V : 44y, 444,,: .,4 -, .., ,
:4r~. 7 .T( ,,h-,. i,: 14 70 44 : i444 :4.4.:.,44 !;e !;,:
a ki ng : 4W Wlavi on
month and~ wol Dt Piv done so-4444..44., .
-I. NO, 4 4 44 41 44 .,::444 4

l'3.3 ..+ ..... :."1'+ -- .... ,-, ', 13' ., 3,i r ',' c .' -% 333''',, -33 3.." 3 ,
in] the -: ri~gh ;t: fram oiu f mfindJ) w~ith dw+r cwal,'isod soli:e.r "-i Army,.',!ikIL 5 ....
.. V. '1 3. 3 ,33

1 : ::).!; 3',! 3 .u if'')1''. I ,, -: )'' .... 3, +,\,' 3 ,:i3. ..... 3. ,- +:) i. .-3. )3D c d
rn-:,;k: i '', ha .<:, f ,: e'-J.., !: ,''s a c +, ,:3' -I 3;~o i ~- + ? ,l 3,'oi 3..,:: :
other .o rcv also 3.nn lln W .!;v f!-coiwr a
simila[ marne fo coe wiQ.3~;9.':
reevdreibereot f pnior uton nte eto

the p::ermnits ver'ifi ed in Q.:uswm ,e as p:
th"at :"t origin:ated in the S,,...",,Pi-"o
!,.',9 'b:,nle- ex::por, te :d fr:o:,: h 3,.,i: n i
of t~hat! i.,,orvY wh'!' did,: arri;'ve ini Hoi.aC

"oo.f ti.t ivo y ,c or, i.f it d;-..i:d
t:em;,: I[ reject,:i the+ p:erm~it evidJen.-ce of

O ng:i::- orl ,. b ':.s27 e MU' PCOSi):- t :,iiir,

33i:-,,.i..It an toy ,33 ar Cus om ay C-. ";oM arm We nl d

To the3ores-.'Cstm xis eod, M)QE ana epr..
ric" (i9i3i) CITES permit, record,3',:3s -. give ,i." "'.'.: '' v-e: ; .

v, 3+] 3 a ,' *'a.,* 3,: 33 v o ~ ~," '' ..... r=+' ...... ,1 ..] 3-3: ij.: .dh~ '. i. ',". '", '.*]+,;.,., ,+.:

33 )7:)' '.! ii !" 3.3,' 3;:...-1 i 3 3 r,3:33 ,,333,3 3'13':i', 3"3+ 3 v, ., ,33;, .3: [ *7 *;. ,, 3 4:3 3. ,''.::J: 1 i3."3 ,'] i ,-

+ -,1 ."=}t] _.. .F '., K12 'g_!.,bI ,t1 i Vt': ]' i.3 33 + ," -.'.- 1 'Q,/C i 3' L '. + K 1;, ',:} '0 '' 3.1 4 ',3-3" ,,, .. 3
'733 19 7 0-, -, 3.n& .w 3. ., .33m*y!F7
ft-e 34 i ... e ph n pi i'.c ... K ,

" .3.. 3 '.... t 3- 3"3,,', -. ; i [33 ., 33 1-, ,'3. 5'3." 7 ,- 3- ,:''. >:' ++ .r+' .- 7 + ",- 3,"+ ,3-::.3'35.. + 9 : ",-'3 :' l "3.~3' "" 3
o s A rc m3' '; o in.
if V+ ,v ) :'=..t CL!C( it r.,-' a : meav- i +...on hq to.........c ion

3333'1, 3.+3) 3'+P: O 3'3'3333 3'.C II. ivC '' ,'.+ I ;I )
Such an:- assu ptio wa,.:L. ]1 o,,.,+i!s mad' e in C"..ugh ley) ( "00 on th.... .s th t

a.b. o A e 3erds wou o ,d, a 3To 7te "

1',::... == '.I '3., _.33,33 3" 33". ,3,,. C :- '.]7.@' 3 .,1'<>i!+ 3 1.q V 3 + '~d 33=.3iJ '_ ...,. 3.'.. 3,::=+ .- >. +,) .. .. .

1! ::+.+ +-?.,Ir J.1-l3 ''3 C+]J S"I + 1 ': ,] 33' 3["'+ '.21 '- K. : J3<,'} ::) '3,++r+."33 ,.-' .+ ', 3 ;])a 3'.3' 'V + 'E: ..,3' -
I.-C"f,' T 3,33-:. 333'i'.7'33I' 1 K F'. ,') f'1 C(:. : 37 "33 ~ .... i 33 ''t+< .3,33.'- .33, 31 '"1 '+,3 3 '''e,=:-33,7 ,'3 -,0 ,
, '."... 3' .; '1- :." [ "3' 1-3 +'! 1 .-. ...'3 7'3?' O 1" '. = .31} .' : =7 ,: v ,.' '3.. 33-" V37 a : 3+.01,- +'01"

to .. '.2 .. i+,,"3 i.3 i3,.,'',+,2i' ,,
o e.,r b and, by ..... .. S a M

bt ween .'3179 a''nd ", .7 t5,> ,f-f., Th 'i3.rst'deri .3e s fro Cu. o a Ex"ci-'a r c d i' 3
Table~~~~~~... 24,, .... seon stems.. frmCTSana eotsadcmie eut
fro Tables-: 27i-.Y (foA!D.r~d intr "" a-" frican ''trade '",'[) 'OJ~ i and 29:' (fo Me M useY exported.} ]J
ou of ; Afric]ZS a) u,. T e thir fo 1986 and'-i.::e ,' 19,' 87,i~ only' .ns,, from Tabl~" ,ea 34 f-.i i

PartP ;icu a l g"a = ]'S ,:i-]rmainer to anq.y. an. .aiyet.s.. .:. f cl,-s m n.I, ,,f-, ..... .
thae:t discr'e~pan..;cies betw:..een: the i-MG da. ta sets-.- ditd not. growrcv w,.i th t~ime a .--.;
might have been e:Fpe,:: fe wihe.-n,r i more P' parties oined the Coi.vef'on. Anid"A
improved their data col election;

internati., onal raw iv-ry trade, The claim by WT 1 (in 5ilt) ht the
declining volme of Wry recorded through, h -CITES was evidence of irowS.i'r"
control over ivory production is classic: '' lngic T h'"-ta
indicated 'decli ng v'.Liies of ivory recorded, but to t-hen! ar r,' that, is'-i
i K A A A .A A ..'3 -.AIA" l 1''I Si .... ...... ... .....7 A' 1''+,< 71'] 3-A7.

facto7.,, recorded produced-:(.';7:t was;. t ra~sh an inr;: keepi n w:,..,. !] it ~.h the at':trgumen-til i.ithat

t .-" e h:t h ,

5.,2 iThe gpowing discrepancy between Customi's and CITES-; dt on Hf..ica'm
ivory production could reflect i Qvorovemrilt inr, ther evasion or CITE!'';

reqirn ements pTopo streson l- legality isionwavryrantdubcause the E rowe, n:.j
'A A A.: .AAi + AA.,,A .. .....S 3 'F'' 'l Il IA

vco u5 yo.., f si v bry t not i y ,ea ::eedn t he cWi"E.- e.. c ,f :.a irv p ci i n. n

mean thati tlrrje- a'Mgal th -ko te iopsThe evidence, Mt CITE iiipoailu

comes frome thought graer Cutom v r cords ^~mid Ythee n fac that :is bm-ie
'AA',1"i 'l 't"C A'i9' : 1htT ;i'/' l'."' '' li LIAI'P V' A'" A- = ," /'1-'A l: '.i :A.. 'i 'K.. :- :,,- --- A-t" '7': fk ~

Departmirnt do not wittingly permit ill3 egal commercito f-'o te::e,
ac',-''d to t ...entio i.-" fc -" cau d'1 'A"" .ub 'i; a-'9 AA I A{" [n"?M o"'f
--u-,g:ste by' I0';s pr)roduction, A Meta, of t raw :-

and A c, S aA s A, split .a m d b e ,
'I "A .. ."Az

l.ess:i 7': tha thep vo.]lurme of rawk,. ma;3teril a Com;:;ing +~ O -f Mi~r a,:. Mie PI...TES. data.
-L I .. t fo- -th f, s in- in
iprev:iou .,s yea.-, rs!- substa.--'ntijally[': exce de th.., ,A:.,: -e volu i me._ o:.f raw-.. i.vory,,f prod,:uc:t. ion n
h.r o l r.-: l;j : I A31 .o iti lh h K 'w l '- A'I: A A ,A' ;A.l~

..'' 1 .'A
... ....... :, .......... A'A A '1 .b .P i. .. ....
..... '-A'., .. Lt I,,- I. "[ "'A {; A''A "'' Uil-L]:1' 4 1.! i%' A AlA. j "' :" A',:A V ':"i f -,'A ",A '-r "AA "PA

A-thh Af'Aaand te lk of oer supporting evidene, ....

A...... -co e ...... the p r i ..... sven if his :is the
case, it maks the pont1 that as a rmon- o'i, n systemA ,, CITES has1o i ,

th~is' ....,* niot .mean7kr that:' CITE S ] hT ]t .... ->- been ,,1w -i-,,. .th 't. l ,f :.e" th',m !e i vcr y

...-"..:, c, W-,e C,:onvent;io,:n, it: ha and na io al aw re es .o
....... A = 1:A'A JF'" .. Al '' E.'AjA Ar",'lu= r '.I.-- .'AA "A'' i ',' A ( A .qi Al O 1'- "

... .. 1. i...... 1 .1 -j : t c '.1 5 s .'t! r:i0 i e li r =.uta 5in,' :,~ } M '-! r':
i,, 'A A' '' .. ......11. l, "}~l i:]. i i:; tl" A i 'Ai: I }A ] 'A ] A ; 1A{ i ] A 'A 'I 11 J }i 1i 'F[e I i l I A' A]'l A'::{

cons ervatio" : "n ,, if enforcing.CIT..rules........ awarene. .s. .
those rules is ge'eAa throughout [he ,ota Where it: once ::' c i..e,
wihu eticin usd IAfia it A iA AAoA logrfeTisMre
sufiA nt' hv creatd a arge HadA"ie Aiche and3%~ a I Asr 0.l
A' ~ ~ ~ t v O n Ai s CUA AdatAAaA~A A AAJ 'A ~ l IA

=.- -k .. 1 a m info Q .ke .0 J)W ]. ,- ,4 ".1 i,

qusios 212 reslt deontrt Ta1u evaLo of the:4 theI
n o22 i. ,A E.. .2.2, if Y,1 :d to. .. c" 22/,2 1 .c'.

es im t of 2fjc toot 2, gie, ir a l. 4 211
fis' is~ inera ivor tha in' y rele te
has thereore to be added to the minimu":m2 p. ,1,: in. ]b2 2A,,

'22.2 Pla i (194a 2940 198a 95 &c! h
resarc reae to [hCal 90 adiyiae tacoi the five

his cm r t on thi 1 ,ee t ,at ttlCSOnA~n M ~ vsl
-<,2 n44'-,_- *.- : 2- %,:,2' 14 o ',, 12 ,i'. 'Tk .z U y", ... .. .... .. .
"-1' ']"' ,r-7'''d 1 '1 2' 2" "2 2 -21 2 Y -. U" ,{,',"" +1 :. "" { .- : 14 '

2.'F .4,,i7 '; [CIi 2:O 'i9 1[ .. ~' Th4 4,42.'. 22i '' .F .1 '.& Y *0 jT yi~ 2.h 2;ii "-,-/ 1" P 7 {" .O ] o

W{ i 1U 1-2) 1: .-1, ]; 111i 71 ':2 {14 .2.4,2 "217 '11 a ,I 1oI-: 2i2:.2n:r;.: V>:< : 21 2 ,' :i :,." ] i !. n im

222'" '' ... .O~ .t 1:"{ 1 '. il,' i ]iC .!i.%T. 2 2i. '1 .'.l!2, 4: I. t U5 21221 2 --:.2,2 r 2 *.. 2 ,'" 22,2. 2,t ..... ; '21<; 1",
Ethiopia G o Soma. ...udan Z..:ai ..r.e n Mom72 1 -- N v a t. ....... of

*2,. ,.,h : 1, .... :2. -. in '1h ,:_ ,::, t In craftin { iv. ory.-_i thiF a t. is,} {;i". ll{;[:,!-T u -pheld !{,!e;i ,::.,i !,,,:. .!. Th r .{+,.e ,ro: -,..i;..<

esi ma e vol.ume' ofh.- p:e -.- ~h::. a w-" ; a ,e, i the's:::; e: : ys e ae .u ,,' i a -,:[ ,-

1" .80 tonnes annual ly, This subject Vs- being nvstlae but, I=' temf, I

5,72 Thi"e seco>; w.OD!.MXI of: thi.s- Migt:J { i.:c_ ro~'t; s l-:.e in moving,:s ivoy"'V crut oi- Afri."c..a
been well p:,ubl icis:es d, '-e! %en t e country ly;i",] *t p rnrne".., it

3.3; 'e 3 v.'33 h.3.3 3 ..3. >o333 i an r ..:,..- 4i, l T4.-x~z ',':: ., 3 ,3.i'4 .F- Fe' ".:y,- .-' r. c lr::; :

" '44" >4 !! '4 D. 7, ?' _"'. .' 44-f 4:'.. i '., .. .. ... .. 'F0Y 1,':C- f .4 7 k"'13 3 "Li(~fi}q i.<:' '"2 y I _. '/ :..'3l3 !. t. i ? U .
crj: Their i.pendinc closee. were a.nonced well '...b'fore' 194 an,:J ha

andJ chass .ibai a,.s relatively obscure' fnew ei'.trepo't .to ri.ndj. Burundi (and.

l--, ],E rL: 1 r F '--" -. I ] <- )4C'. i' :" 3 4 '. .:'..4',* ~ .'' .' 4~
Ma From' 1984 onwa"d Dubai' was 'Ihe principal stag.ingt post for al'i iF-'..o,'

(con'f iden't ial sources) Bet&fweesn nur !iMSTCN'*>;rt"? h'; h197
IC tlk) 4-.' !V] .1.. [V 31 t.'4 ,@ .FJ 'u V.:t V':3 3;f' W::n -4.i'I} [0. :1,: 04.' .r',. 4, .. .. + -,- F +" '. {% :":""-,
,4t7 7:ili i )f tv &." 'Fi 4- t--,}'3 '3 73 4,. .1-+.: }tI .7). v.: '" FA, 1,,, :. : o -" .lil 3 .: 1"
Ulnof f i! :jal, traders; i involved s/ay -tun Quantity (t i was gre.'ater and-,
...,.... ,,-:.4 '7'' ( > s.,% fi" .1 {t: .. i
( .r ii) r'd hl --, re oo hast..h lv t l. asto a.s.'ly as3 9 3 J hav.' e co n ie e 4 i

ave5r- f annulum ouflo ifvory thE lft*undi for he ear 139S3- ad 987 in sie Thuti
Fi -t = ~ ,"-7c -: ..!lJ TO } '3-.4 3.'' IF F' "~ 3)... ; -} ",?S ii{ tb .. 7 1.) '''i 4':., i: '4 .' t IiJt" J[i.'
annu-al ivory pro duct ion, te ov t o,

5,74 Wth.effect f.rod te he 5th Novuedmber i 7i, thei"urundi GEovereint --o-.--ra-'

.r. ae it de-.a -o, itrnr -loh ooo ha ,okhoreite t..o 9 had be

7hip-, ,) of ivory t lf '44 And 1 < 1
rn: .. ] 4 F]', -' "F:: ri 4 ,' ,,"'> ,. -'-::[,. -':.: -i .. J3 .'1, iF .1o[ ,b : ," 33 w e ce .
5.7 7al -I0 t n Mt of the i>n T31'] ".......ei s 'I.:' ti D ub i Oo2 whe nc ce a.d

3~ ,. 4.4 t.., i.' 3 l '< .... '. I i".; .[.-:.] r .-:. ';i r v I .. <. ,.
c..lande t l t no a Some o a hel ar- -i wn'or te,4 ';' C.-.uic'4 i s'ui:o .I
wor'k-ed, i vor-y .ntila: 19 when the ge n to stop faurthe imaorls

-,6 A o s r e com ....s t;I"-stL oncl :e !the 'shipti car .iry.,ingi i~vo:r'y ,outJ of: Dub .ai

arrie 'd3atit.sdest' ination, Fu no o would, .. I3* been
4 ..F 1 'T'4'' W 't 1 '1 LP 3, -. ''. '' 4. 4 .. .K' P 1 3

_iolr f.,.:.... :rom " r~ and in 1i984i-! an !Tur!ber" 18q, T-h~is was u .... ...!.rucs.ual,:, :in that... :
g-. .-: 4ive's o ind3/ ica",tion.v' of i i n. gi. m port d is.u f icient, volu.m.e. 0
-, i ,. 'j1 ,, -. '_ [74.. 33 '4''. 4. "'-3,:: 43,"' v 4 :.' ..4,- r .34 ..";. m -:t .,_ .-3, o f44 .3...:,:- .-,-4 ... 4 :

,_ -, ...' $ .+... *< -I : .... p.3}[ 3, 4t3 f"':.. "* .:! i:'", :'3 "[4 ::" "

rec ive a1 A a n from b n,. K,i it ale

th i.' alee syc to23hnsi P1 :

Ar- ,.:i. J 7 7 7'.A k:. (Do'. I. ',1 2 .t~ T. vo '".i ,ri F .[ A.. .7]7[ ';O i
comm n w h is l y i, .. ............
a*1 n '.1 e Anhi me t

,1. I r.f. I'1F A:t.[ 7 ',I -: A J .A ''' +.t : .. x }+ t7 "'7.. ., < . : ,.. ;:t' b ; 3. A 'i:7 "7 : l :t.7o r % .,, ,:, .'.:-

5,7'9 i il ryit l r Sin po e 's.-, i-to 'frm T ai

substantially it A "A .illegal ivory',K c u d o.':. the'Q--.
there wasl no!q nee W Wnea Lan7 W(yCoig t Sna

A'l! L i, ]tt tl ; A" ...'[ [ .-t A C I I" .: .. J V : A' lt'i7)''7 i ID '. ;" A+~ i' -l p' 1 t '-'' i' ;' i" 7 i,, :' 'I .tf I
Duba'i =5 ,.-(rI A a t olf Atth,.e vo.r.Ayt : W i .i .-''-A ,AA '.'IA "o I "
fai :' lse bi~ll;7] ', Q the D o ffic.-<: ; -ia l ""l. records w:r,7.[ O: hav W r ad been[ aci:.t!it Pc 77 ;:..>urted: for, O.n, t h j -~;. '7[; .L;.,,-,. .. : !f
presumpti on Z'. {; 1 di co n them frum the Burundi Q -001; ] : [(;~l (7i iii-. ];O.i ): J~i'" .Ii .!L-tt -t:'
5 .7; T. ,-iff +:71 ,9 pr!esent t he Customs~ -.: re>>:,.cord.: ,; h:.Vr-o-- Tray :e. ..21 :) r ex e oo byr: th .e
Co te 'd : wnir e%7 '..s! 1 ar 17 i' "fi' a ',;rb :itrar em:- im, ato- ofI!{W i:t. i alTk ] A":?fTOUar ;
iv r ... pt~cr -atc` th .. .......o r du e y e am u ts i dia e
" Fin 7 the p-rev7 i ot 7. s parvtq;taph), hk; T hti{ :' e. '.%[77:!' totals cha... .. i! '. ] i "?tl ] .:.I; ,leng...e' the -st -,, .

general' for of Avor p yroduc't, ion,m
.........4" 4,44" >,4' 44"44 "

i nc ons :i. s .- t.enc y bet.-veen !b :.,uiny .MAMI s 0-.=. ,-f_ i ,Vo,.r v .1 Ud i P: .. -f -f .i 5 a 11 i MPV, P tm.,:n .."I,
and. i ts] .%L ].)large forcee of ivory:' cr: aftsmen,::! Thep: ;e W ro : more',:- of tywal in 1 nd J.a
44 "'',.4' ... 4" '4' 4'44[' '4" ''' ., 4 4 : .

t I I tl .. i t U R t,, :7-e. ,"a,) k : i" I
"? : '444 4 4 ',!'! r]" : !-: .:4; ::.''44 .t4',' l ~ 4 44 ....',' 4. 4'

crafsme are kno n t'th i ian Q A:] pla it. A '<'utho" My ad 4( st" i It p K'},
"their t a-ddre a, re' e o 'r a' Wo a 4e, 'a : u I.nre.,4: jJ e e-11 ( f I. r t. in :4 .

~ 4i 444... .. 44 4. .
.{:.helhtr p.L ,"i f e:pals+: bee aw, de ... in i-n8 the y' i~e ibs -r c '." 7 r '. 1-,i t,,hF! .,
4 :: 4' 4. '-- 4_ 4 '44 *- 44 ...t :. -"' .4< '[:] : 4 4'"4' '44'[i ;r 1 '~r: i' / .; ,--' :4, 4 p i
j '4 44" ,l'iJ '. 4 4444 44 44: 4. 4'4,- 4" 4 '' '4 4 i: !: (V ''e = -'' .. 4, '- z iq .. .. '0 : "
4 ~ 4 ..' ..:.. -".........*. 44 *- "" 4

14 4" t 44~[J 4' 4 i ]" }.i'4.4 444 I.< fl ; +} < l)" I;} i ['t']{ r,[,- 4.". "'4 .,,:: /! .{I I': ,y ? ]:' ?C
post M ode, and ["'4 'i. of the 4-44 t the ori ', 5ta. tis44-4 ,- ,h

4'' '4 .A ,"",. 4..':: 4 ,:, 444? 4 4, ,4, 4 4 -' '4
ivor ent' e i ind4 'gr'e'l exceeds th t': 4 hi ch .4 'cs u the aeg"is ,"''
CITES 44"ve 4,.4, 4' an'd, 4.i 4 on th 444'. open,

T*:,an ;.-!e th.e,:. .-: ov erview of- Afic ::,ma t 0t.he -- -.4 'pater of e from 1 19 The yer,' -.1978 are fro Parker

44 4 4.4 44 4'4 444' .7
'o4s,','.d : :~?; q io t,..: 444 ... 4 '4' h4 pp r444 '- 444 ...4.~', 4'' 444ha ;-,-'.4 .a4i', 1 4-0.:4'-
1 4 4'.'d -r:i '4: .'. 1 i. -'4 4. 4,"" .1- 4'.;,' 4- 44" -! : '4:'.!! : f '. ': ". ''.. i' : y :,, <' ,'' 4 ... .. ,, '' ;.'> 4 : .....
497 Ta.. le 10A. 4an,.d from 19 8 :4 W this report-, A

4.' i. 44.: 4"4, 41' ,4, ..ii ,. 4 h.44 :' 4 4 4 e C:]4'?" T i 4. p? '4',:'-...4,/4' 4'i 4. 4",{~ 4" '',-J4,, 4 'he :-,4 ,
4' "" 4 Q 34 -" 4044,! 004 44444 a 4 y 4 44 s t4 4'', me -4 0 Ln j% nl J.I IDD, -.; a

les#5) : , ":tV.--:a in:!: 0U p t fNM ) U t 1 iy i ,0 i a

5 ,74 44 'h ... 4 : 44 ..., ,: .44,4 :'"4' 4 p .:44,:,'.,.44 4,.'.,ca ..V .4-,,,,.'. 4, o ,: 44.4... : ,'.. '4. 4 444['44. 44%,
198 4.0s .'4. and 44 a4 precipitous ""' dec in thereafter'4",',4'4 This M un''.'o is flawe o-Z,,'144'
production w4" root ()' i4 1900 and,4 mor 'mpo tan, Ta l 10 4 4 4 ..y 4444' 44 in Parker 4444
is'4 44 4 nc m elc.'444' disf r p in of~7 t4 '4',)! ali4 in C*';'g 4'i4 ley444 .4 4
1988 and wilb4uteripoe.n.'rescrrn ~dHoeebt
co've the~ sam basic4~ pat4tern, 4 "''. 4'

4" P 4 C-4 E '1 0 R F7 ,. G

5,! 4 ,4'4. 4''' 'rnm l t as the rmi,;,4e~ ar the."raw ivory 44'4 .ct4 4 4' 44 4 4
pemtmnnsmvle '1~ 4~- Afric's n~a vr output,44 Thn.44
ar 4's)-t.d inal 40Th aveag annual4' vau o'4' ivory4 44due oe
th'4 e r 17 -3 7 i 4S 5 mi lo and.', h 4o..] %te p r d
wi 'll hav4 '"[4 minimall W '.4-... 0 ,2 4' million ..4 '"? '' 4-''i4"" 44-' 4""4

5,86 .4" Th 4 tale n hs eor onan uh aa ht av otatepe'J

to 4' analyse Sim la ly ther is~4'44 inf4rmat., in 44h4e ,4444 lists1 that 1 have -44, 4~'4
not '~ epevoi y to4 ROO M -- the wealt of444 c-4'''''r' i 44 4. 4 '

incontinent:;i commi-'erce, the Convention has: influence!d Ona Wry trade, Somlie
31 %. Y~;iYd' 4 '3' t''' t ~ 4 .9 ; ,. ,.o i ,, .{; ; I ,..' 3. 37 I;' :, r ,! !i i. ',, ',. 3 [ i;:, 8 ~.
merc.h'.-'ant;s have , -e,-. fro th" -: < h b.,i.-;-i-Ie .p ,_-;-'_' be:ie z v:ln i',j b-,f r~ ., !:,.!.= a cy,: ,.-'r
surrLi'oui.ln>3ng it is altogether excess-ive, blawny have ,"r,:u..ied -i. the tra"a,
molst f them understand thie basi logic t.. ... u-,.e of trying to ensure s-"ainiable
.....1..... ... 4 -3 ';3' *lw ..- :s 3;;-. '.1 'li .. i"v' y -.r :

t-he Conventr ion, t,.!he latter% i not, c a P'arty, but fo::r reas.;on"s :,i iot- ,:,,ui ti-

(..' a@ I t 1.'93 '.! C .l' F.

..'.. ..' 4- ....3 / .3 4 1j t

3~ ; 3.t i'8 ; h .i If 3' 3 3. o4 ..3tac~r t _'l .
s. dsourgd iv or y -. Ca> I hn ho .
'"it in ot "her vr y much mo, ,. : i

4;.,,"a ::II 3 -.~ l ::" y u!h} i. vd :
dramati cally a 37 x,- voca lly, W

3 x. 14 ,, @ rt !] ... "- o i

ace use its3unwfuli h

.... .. [. 43 rI 4.41 ; 11 i.
I hv e W'y .'iled- in Ab3Y ;,, }a ir r -pon s ;bi ai.:.

v 1 det1 I 'ail a re -rts of 'i

133'", .:. i-ii, ,. ,:8 ':: 4'... 4.. ;. '. '
mana ge!:; en Wols, u~i,;a .~in.i.:. exwqa' e, by

.io;_4sl' r i t .. .... .
e:4 3u ue _J'w
3W rn d Til us of~~1 WHO V '3' I 1I

fa'- i. h.we has: to:s~ t;o; i; {:, ihe For.-':.tie.s,' a; ,i'i;c,
S~ecr'etariat..,. nit their bie.:n'rda Mfyere.nces, ,o h.}g ,,>.
3~ ."- 'tG .'- t3~a 4. v '... i. C' .' p l % i;.3... Iy Cd ;,r 1r:- ..3 L '
this 3 f "t u n Ae ta '" level, 3' posbi t for failure. 3 / 3:'13

..... c l..e ,a

4;, ".1 :1 } I t .4 41 >3 .3 t "' I V[ [i3 '- '4 I .'1.34 J t,:: 3"_ ; I '4.[ .. : 3' ,'.T -' 3t "'3' t '3":, 3 .. -. r' "41;.1' ~ : b
pro1f und im.p'ove"' e-ntl 'i t e pe orm. e o' f 3, 3 a'l'1't if .,h .ten y .e ,rs .

Ii .., ... 3.% I .. 4 4,3 .L I.' 3 -. ',' 4 '13''. I' E 'Yr '3 .3'a V@ [ ",1 4.444 O 41 ,, 1 ,13 -4 "3 !33'
not-' praci cal; "-" to any, sudde'.in cha:nge... tow; -.ards. t.he. basi un: "b iformity~ thatR

-'33 1 3 1;.:1,. I 3"-1' b 3''2 : '1";. '.U<.) ,1 .'l [ t''4' :333 ." .c :,; 4 .,,,- 1 (3 3 4.' I "''< : bI. 1'', i--3 ,
speciJes; we're l ist~ed: o, n ; .. .. ''.-" ."-:~e but :,-- few ..At. 'W at t.i.mre r
,11 d t' t.h.e4 e were alead., f r o.m y: 3 0500," {a,:, rt ti'l '. 1- .....'1,

,1'c o"'-:~ p kh ..3'i 3;".'; ....' '73 <.- '..' ( a ~ 'J .-q ,~1 ~ ,I, "3(3 .. 3
..1. >4, 00.... spe'i1 I, W.' ai 4444,1, 3'V3 ', 1" tI. par c eac. of w'- ch is l,
ito to:e known"; by sc:i~entif~ic Lat:,in: oy Week:,.: ,(a;nd m~anyv of7 w ch..:b o.,nly ha:,v* -
Lat,. in or: G"eb:@'e: tf. '. -. 1 ... x i :... ...e:!u !",We en :,-,: :i,-:, l .o v :% b c i
... b dq .!bi.. ls- ".z; he ,_.. cln :i ch put t heor..'f":', y int py:. r a, nti"a, e ,.. '::; no:: Mo:ies arN e

more a w. .. are:i.; of tha the ci"-; v. il ser. v ie upoi what" a} i':,,''"': et i;, davolves T'herein: J
may tc! lie basic cause for:' th:,':,:v,,e' :.ual ity of .annual: reportsC; Bei ,"-L : as it.... mc a ye: -,, ,.

'eed1ed to replace7 re-port.s in role,

b,90 in On par 1 '-" .4. ivc,1y :. .. Fa rm t4. ve- f .Kat i o s st -: camn
atbourt, ","4", observ.'d, .'-:ingt "t~i,h-t.', "l-ie i:,oc,.edu'res. recommended. ....... ich.n u d -i CIT"E:S} ... wea re
no-t- ivory.441 .pio Agai n .i is -' that th i 4 s 44z lu ...

a of S t Q j. ure-4 4- .. mo- nopol, 4 'of elaytht. n o iv r 4 hich they

neith]er t-een] con,sid..ered orc:- gi~ven! thir-e t ,:u:,*7 :in] ,attempts:.! 'to ,"eg.u.lab.e ivomv'!
tradig, F:r. as a te :inf'lu:nc, of syy
...4 i4 .7'.''~ I ..5, .... .. *b)O .. O Y ?--." 'r 'i Ll( ] r..%

are .4' ',-practic. ,cr.w4 4 4 -r41 'of the trade will s r,1 AM it in frot
tish s v~iew-. :t:h t ,conr sid:er the-;.. -ivory, ,.quot;a. an..:d psavh i.t system; rr w-; a senste of=

' On e p r or.... i p t 'o 1. -1'.-. 41 .. .. *... l

,1.4.h: a i: -4,: 'i i:o i : sy F11-e,: t .;{ ,,,':~ :..4 4I :] '4:, 4- ., I u 44' v .4. 14 v 4 ....1..
P'ar ie- what t- tho gh t would prod. 4ce in a'- ". -i n 4" I. y a --4an

4.!'[C O .. 4 4 .'. 4' 4 Y ",1.h" .-.'' 41. .,''f ... .. "' ,:.... .... .. ... ..' 4'4 4 ... '

,454' -, :The4'4.'14,., 441"- 1' l '] 454'. *'.:110Ele 0,4 ~"~ -14 '':UT :! 4'.. ... .. .. ,f. 144'''"e. 4',' :-

54r ?d 44 4*4 4.' r,.. 41,21'qob -i ,4',4i 44 e'4 ,-_4' ..... r ,, .., 44444 4441' '44A4 41 -,: 4 -'- '4'e-t .. 4 4444.44 :. ,r 4,i 4.4..h

44 74)4, ,' 44;4 14 -. t,, 44.' 4, 4. 4 1.. !. 44 4',44] .4,,".-j ....... .' 7* '4.''
w as i ,t: e 4 .th t a m sittin 4,

44.)}. a, '.,~ '14.44'T.4 44- 2 4a 1 ,. 4 .: ,.i :i :, r', {:P b lame ,.I .'. H 422 4b, 4', i .. ,I- ':.4

Ie '% ). 71'4 7,f ,-41 ',1. rv "i:'7 ,-144'4 V. 1-. i,: '.e 4'4:: .a '.4; :[, 4: 4 4:, 1, ', '. '44-, :.:i '', 4 11 -

4,.4{ ....4"" "' ""1. 4 m ,.~ I .O 144.- -" f 1U .q !. ": 2 .. I 141 .'.14' .-,144'41"... 4 4 44.,'L .... '..14= ,tS~biC.,!"f .4, 4 41:{@ il! ( i

an'4:. '_4a4~'4':'' "; eJ P .:4 :gr'. 4-..2., ."4 !:'.P> ]..'' 1' i:! oi" s. v_: ,,i ~ e i u :h :;Y

4.':4 44 .. d .. 4- 4. 4 .{ 3 ... .:.-- r) ] r '- r -.2 '- 1.- : 4-'v -,:. 1 I .17 .' .... ....... ..... .. 4: 1..... '"1''
permit any mor ef ec iv l tha tha man-'. in411 'OC14'4 4 2 4-' '' 4 14.,,-'4 ,
all. .411' Nations refe pemis ak o h

Fh -. '7 fh' 421'. -ste 447.44-:e by ''"1' the recipien Q hri y 444444. ,'2. 44 4a4 '''4l'' "44"
ivr permits'1' c4'4.ross a Sereara AM4 was4 that71 it 1a1 ceb
up-t-dae moitoing ystm tat te anualreprtshad o signal 'file
to4 4444..444 ~ 4 pe fo m in4" this"4.4' it was un e ia l a4' s"1 forar it4 wa als 4 44
to res4olve the problem of correlation between exports 4w4y4 imports,'' It.; has:
4144ve matter somwha 4.ut'4,' as..4'4 th evdec sk' lack o'' correlations

tun thswsitrrtda vdneo h UCS htCTSpoeue:.. 4

c. c; L4c4'4 t :,L o'1 k-1 e -r e, L-4-ei, 4'1'4'-4' 4,,5 s'4'~4 u'i s t 4,4dat VAgh4 4'1.V'-1.4'' s1' r'l I 4 1- '11 P C '','
th Prolem fain CITES
5,93 Failure', automatically results in11 blame,1 And bl"a444m44e..44 4 wherei1 He. .4 44 44 444, .4144-
'i1n". t"he,, .444 ~ 4 4 444 41-44144'
thmevs th cosevaio pulcad4ariualwihwsen
dom'4424inated7.44'. no-oermn '4''.'i'424s14 oranstin which~ have 44een We'7"4,544 4..~" 1
main stimulus4,1 for governments to have,"'' proce'duresl'"I',~,44,4'~ 117 441

implement, prf-l re. pos11ilt for WeI Wc: fCY
failure. 4to mo.itor ivory prod'uct .io arnd t,:rade item.4 .'u:'4,4': y w-ith t hem, ]f

the failures of which it; wa1s aware to the Parties' .ntior,

crt;i i.", if there was i; urgt aw~l-,,y. to; non r,. ... ... .W.voru- :.,;lv t;r'a.,o c:.r-f. lly .
a'd I;51c r,,-,L t'h44 k that thi i in"dipu te-' n- then a rerequisite'is ha vi
to. ha.nd.! at" al, ti.mes a un;r.n ---.,ummat lon of ,v -ib, 2,d.uc ,e, At. te very-
leas4t i s ou ld ha' ve bee; r Coduc d an ; .. -4 .''.. s giv ing 1, J
eail 14 il hav been monhl sttmet amd 1 stat thit rvLg -1;

;44 4o;, p ":,:,'-1 '! .:<.,:l 1.4' 2 --. ''1"4 O Ii i .,k ] 4 ;;,- '' t. .i :t .' --i, : f )
:ivory tradi~ng fir...m .c.n-d a-n Afri,-:L>an 63ov-.-.ernmer-it (ihE :ia te`" Cu'"!i) ~

by post, For w.or th;t took tha e r ho .r .a mor i:. pr o d:uc dp .a b .rf,
runni ng' s;1}x.... ~ '-:tatemenrlt'Di. of current volumel'l''i an: [MT d valC, ,7,lue: trends,"')"k''

5:,95 it was wi :x,,th, s-ome incredul,,]b].ity; 'thati ] 1 learned'l that rno -such;:! ri~n:ji~ :.Tim a y

syte opeate wihi CTES WIT 4 has
-dat b n V,. .. w ith .{ t j.,. .

* 4 "' 1> -.44 *..... -; ,
been aalyse IfOf; at Md e

re'oty wa ov r4o.-7' 14'
undertaL:::.ken- ;in t.he pas.:t half_ c ::e, n -:;tury,
Ex:.:c.hwe : vecor.-d%, bu.

4 .. l Ii' : :,L-: i'o '.4 .. 141 3. 411,A'. [ rr

development' in t io tra-d- a
a.C(J~l;i; I: *n .. ,j', 4-.- .. .I OL ,~ W !'.
near y: as com re ens ve faiur 1.v. .;,i 5

C "" ,. 4' ,4 t 1"". '"

'ii,.4 '. ';' 4,. 1.... 2 '4 ... ... ;

P;a 1e disb ]i.2f 's!. h: 4 bu, t when ar.

441 .. J 1 Cust s ,;d --'.E '- i
.is -" ., iaM
o :)f W2h.. :i nt;el r a -:t i.on i vo ry trade,,i-:

14 not only ,14 th
:::.y M~i Secreva i.t,%::H b, ;" M en.the ezt amph,,r-w.-'

,ard: Qlorz:do ) "er ,,) comm-,- Berney77' p. ers,':C

Q'c'-i.-se data:,(- La c k of:, mo,"ey is an .i

act- or".s t h'I,,.
qualification of th'ose 1 who hv been
o .r WT- ;i', '

trade TV! basic rq,.uir2 :.n.ts for this sort of wort- are et itr.'1 ,;''4Dr i.s :" n

which to f i nd such attr ibut e'.. i ithat withi.n ,h- i:h hy. -, .. .a oy
!.,oyed Custom4s Departmnts,. None o''f those-. ... .. 4 r Wth1

in iolo-; i and wil' d ife, W ,i',! (in li' tt) has re '' o ded that it ha's yet to U r '1--!e

sh.ow '441 .,1.- j .'',4 : '" .4144-44 .3 "2 o .:. Itha b i, "i t I 4,: '. 1: 4]

who h"ave fa.; .id,

Tvi lte this sectWon, r::; cal revi n ar i 1 A f or

-1[ EE FT V Wq 1 V El J,,3 1 0

by,,i Pariker b GrahawCi Their findirqs arc, germaine to, anhq- c .. ,hesion n CAF
ele phant~l d:ec:.: ln, for t hey pr,}es!ent. informYatio~n an} tho! "since:. !925a-n. dQ<
exam..ine it in the t!heoretical context of com~pet,: %ive exclusion ar'd. hu;
increase, as well as relative to ecoHomic: tr-ends,
, '2 ]h4 -ai.alysis p- t 9.- '..69 W on.. and ele'phai--v. 'si :4:Fin
admi distr+ icts~ (F"ig,-8)i'' showing: that e,-- pl --r, de si ie we e er
o!r low Vwhere huran .nsities were hi, 'i and vjrice v'.ersa, Earl.ier .sc ientiffic
re,,-r,:k sh.,, thU at -".;hi~s h.- d:: not =,,.:;:., al ay been@: Y), Eleph, iant-:-!ha once be,a ,
present in many districts that were devoid of t.hem in !969 .and th}r
:''- i" '4 9.}' :4. r- i "Z; [i .i O !PlhaJ /' P@ i!% ',r l. '- !}i'.t [; t 44 .,< 44 1 %-'V" -'i { i 14" @}

were high in 1369, sug-esting that the in i'ssing elephants had been di"sp"ac- ed
o, r ki by peopl P -e i n cop-to f o r l3 and,:*

SA E i R F -

6.3 8 'The Ke al.::4 444. '. evidence was u-n.'~i bfrica as. a.
'. h," ..... -Iqon ( 1,9: 79):' mapped# Ea'-'!st. Afri can t' ieeh n ,i iri u% ---< .. h
points in time 192h, 1950 & 1 975 and 2e.,. irn'e.p, ; f.i'", hi- maps 4!:i' 4oo -
that in 1925 elepnqants -oc-urred over d :of oEast Afric, d*ecliningto
in 1' ) and to 27", i'n 1975 g, ,

S A: C: E F7 I R

GA D# ata on! Mm!arn ,diortbr i.bub {ons: t-' -p,:..A, o *-::ingd:on:' s (1{97*-:'.'_') e.p a-
tr ution-'s for al o f East. Affrica e p a. r.e naot ava"e 4 -, ': a d ,.t, -'' --

ofaton werepe.) tyionin froii iav,
between 11931 a-no. 1198'5 a1. 2," sl.hiow,-,-ed 4 h -

14 human p'op'ulation' at mroe tha~n 25: Freopl/ ed anacoengtv
of t:hea elephant; dJist; r ibut"io:n in 1-35$%}0, i,e :, ai, v irt' 'uall, iiy Mat: samae: t ime,

c1.< ['[) ", {;I.Y :' J 1}- I'-'II : '''44 4i ~ __
G, Mayr (1965) siummeid the essential elements of the com-'petitive exclusio,-n
"4' j i N Z' 4" ~.... ] t-. I{ .V i '47!C '4y rz.4 PV3 i '1 .... ':U f.. ? J J5. "',.! ,I ....... u ... >'44-4 -l: '.7 #':'-R"'
prn il as defne by2' Pardi (V4'9p;0)4 by1 sa ig it2*'i' sV... t '4 e~ .t~: 43 I: '-
(sch .fa food, a'. a s live. A, to hide, oir o br'd) that is Pi
Si .ited snprly', C' "., e.. l"=.y "o oe?: 'ition becomi'- es more acute as ,

0:1 4 44' 44'~4 t.....1....... 2'' 'I .'"'0. I 444"4- 4 : .v!.- 4I' .j .'- :.', ,

logica outome of... :. copeito wer %a?5e Thee first. was .. that w herethe
dend of two:44. spceswref f.-44~:4~' KOM2Y '. similar, on woul beom extinct,

:.:p ,: ;. o : ,'4. ,4 :-: i .' .:, ''-' -'4t i ,JiI ir :. V .1 i. i d. in ,,'4 w ,, K 4 4 4' -

o4 o q ;l 'i ,] :,- : ., ,. :, P : .-:. : : .'... :p 1 i 4 .21 1:- .....

W, '.:;t4 '.,n:i'V 4'-X442142C, : I ::.: ,444.4:},: -.,;.,:;. 1 i4', 4 ::;:..-; .4;, [ i:' z:I ;':.! \4;, > 4 iv~. c:

V44:71 .' rt.'-.~.- "*. 24 t4t':h4 44 4, : :'
-I. w.' t a oe i t W2 cW te o .q:0 s!u. f & Ian V y-. ., Q f:K : :g. z on "eof
V G.4K-L' i East Africa r i''n 9 22..- h occp d' is ian ds i. ..... ... f of r c ; "t ,.

*~.,.:.>_. L '1: '', 4 .2 'I .
Parker a nd .h: :.. .ece oit n that';z.: thi w-: ::as th"e: "t nife stao,' r:i ,::f Kjay-'s. M M," : ';e

* otsl-i :44. 4-. i: .. c~' 4.t 4 -[,: :," In4d: ":: c '. "K :i :: .! ..!.i. : o *.: r c :.4 ,- f 4 :.1 -V. :4 .

4 r.4 ,' ''V~ 1.~ 'f..' .2... 4 -~ "' :: .4 '.:. v'- t4,: o :
oucoeitimlis cnsdeabe vela i pefrrd abta wic-te-..
firs consider from~ the two* speieg 4'oos to~ rainfill

6,73. Usin :,tvw'rr1 sets of K na c':'4R' UWT ''1" .' ,-".. 144' :' ', m .!_F1*'.n
Yoe str ;'j preernc f2.24 the'. C highe raifal irea and4~ a~ Moro-

coreato betee rainfal an foun' density'~ 4 ~ 44.4 2 Pee (41;7 also';4 found~1
similar 4),4 C 4, relationship, expressed. as. a4 W-:: I' i 1-1 '.1'? d"'4.21-t Wl t

increasing aridity.

15, El They,4 hav also- '4.,.d tha a.'' sii' re a io s i between human2: : ;I. ~~ 44 *
dest and rainfal is ..4* evien eve H4 t1hs coutr W''-' for th Africa'a. 4.
B whle prvie soi fatiit is inlue as a facto in th analysV.1 :'is

444p -ats too show a:1444 .orsDdn re xvn to4 ,4.4'V and
close corela io be w e rainfall and1 4 l. '4'I-a,, '1 tha .'.r%41,' 1' .21
man, imlyn an ovrlp in prfre habta ove a'2mdrbe an
pr in4 keein wit th eealrltonhp!

bims and ranfl described4t by :. Coe '~ et 4 Q, 44 ( '4197k-.26),4 42.-1

6 41 The stent of thm corlain is stikng given1 that the c4.4 4.4 c
~ t 4.4 eve stone if Ht44 effects: of. othe Fa o were ..i '
taken'4;~ into ~ ~ 4 ancoun' in this4 respect 4 it shul i 'i *".:1
elpat not. onl Favou those1 habitats4 mos So..ght. arbor. Q. man,-b
eaTvr odco hth rw and, as. well W h4 lnsetnb
domsti herivoes We~~ evienc of coptin Wr bt WN an
plnt is.,* impressive, 44 4~4'~ ', 44''

A... i 31 !. 1 I 5 I" :'' !i .O Al :' 1 A- ,/' A I h A .:.= ,: 'n~ A ',' ..Ii A~ I. v :

*1 II I. A 'II I- 'A n *)* iA~r Uj '' 7 5 'Vi
VWe hA nHAf tip line ar re ges's" d pion analysis 01.iha, .t d n siy ad\, oil ', y::ir

(fsorae area 'iui' whnl frich flty acutrieiyws) esimtes~ barelativeatleph'iat

pa ti l y inhi "bited OSim i ]a'{y th: y found ,osi:..V ................. ,~
densi ty/:,l Y, as:-.

vie i o t 2 i ,eii rd il i l and 1i enhoHi i taG, 2 Y, :o masn aE b.'. on, a'r[p wl-.-ch ii
Par'- a .nd No S. r i "1 D u am ton-j ( 907), T he .latt

desndi ated tareaii: e's from "-.ha,'e hucna.s as -b, ,ii fay,- Ye 1 B 1
ras-ly l ahie Similarly they positive corrrelatai on between eephn den i

and ~aranfa llit and ta thie dioher e.utlepan dof dus cc ed in te*;i

type of habitats thaVt supported the h ii hman densities, Ro-t't the two,-
seie hav th.aehbtt .eesne r..t--o

.-he ,.. -hu*..ans aye fewest is en in w h Vh!e :"ypot -i-iesi of

we'(tter land and tria't competition for thi's gioes3 a longc way towards
f S otfore l- p h.-' Aia t do nIot ea inr a e Ae 1E s Aia i5 S .'1 i' 1ci at .

other",-ci.e.s w :h d- n pr'od:uc.:e a bis of reats vale:. for ex ple

strn supot to th cotnto that th phnmeo is a~ vea rondit
to large African 'a-A Al.. ., ot p,.t culiar +". ,.. h- y
'-.tus.-ks:, More' than- any o::t~her- evidencm,,.e, t;hi.,.-s undermines 2.- beli~ief that.l co::nt o of' :,[ :,

sam-, e ra thatCITE canaddrss te prblem

73+ Thi+.s secti: on~ is: als. -o based:;: oni Pa "e n G ;raham's paper :in! press?, +Tren&:I

the average annual valuk.,,s of ivo._ry sald general trade information con Us-,
voume ..and value of ivory from the rest of Africa, The i.oii;o i
considered in twci.o phases: 1925-1971 then 1950 until the Present, I-h e.
.. .. b is a w id j. dt b. that

the era of Africa's political independ'-rce,

V-1 re were also unesue ilea exors Suthr 2 7. an

motlt rw e l 95,d not 21' leav comrca ivor an evI'idence of
2- tha it is ,," th c v c.. .. .1.....
+0. r P_2 ': o.1. !n +, ._.-{i. +_, f.. *v+.-..'' .. '< ...' -. )* '2 2', :!:: V ,,. + 2W J ...;: .,
p,:of molsa-. t a.- t"- y_ .'i. : ld, w-ish o t.ri -i i. ic-' ai .'. a oi2 ,-nnu'l.-i

theyr beamenn less reiabl (Piarker 1979): ltrd ndtenu!is5o

1925 1 !00,
7A Fig, ~ 10gvsaIierrgeso 0.73 0, 00 f* or th rn

fo3llowingic the Gresat Depression and the released of stocks hekc in ho'pe that,
+ .+,.. :i.' +.g ''~ ', j' h, ... ,' .... . .

''2. .. ... 'j22' .1 Y' C+ '- 1 7. : 1;: *'' -. _... +.+

prices wol'd r"ecover .. .... "+ ':'2 lees A do in '' drn th ear
1-. 2': ."': I -2+'' 1 ++2+'P+ +.j2 'r + 1 .''.'..'"' !'? '2"'" 7.+ '"' : ..,

9 :', A C E F R +` .....

ar tefac ts and basic ivory production is liklysl cc) haOab'e.>i csori*.towhat m;iore;
r: .. "' o '+''" c:''O'+ :,2 211 VO.+++iO { + '7' kI', 211+'+ : 2.'' :++++ 2.. +';; I+:,++``-'',r + ;' 2 ]"i+;+ ,'2 .17
con tan than the; expor dat indicates Elt .... F M a.. .. ...... M s ...... ow
pic a-nd: then wa teprrlybokd rd et vniuteasec,

market '.:, elephan kep ,dy ::5=....... i g ar+I 1 'd : rha .n ac ui e tkei.. .:', r-+ Mic+:,,'" .. : ):+? .+r+,'e,,..+!:
J'+++m-- 47 'lt!+.~+ yearsl~ Novy-: Ol'i ppoductkn V+ elephan de ts rose "st ":adily,
We thus have+. tw strong ye independent dat s.+e ts +.r+_+ ., Ki .gd +o 's 0, on:f-. the...-.~ .]..+.
lossq Q," j el ph n rayw',-.-'+ ]+7 andZ'. :+ -. the C.!. issto s ,-cor Q': z-vyy- *qKt wh ic.y:]:.i ".i+.: ;" l ?! :
copemn one ante anc sho tha elphn deln wa wel esabis

I z, a!. fl; ] i- Fr W i e. I j. If the, ........ I, o l.. fl i w

I '.1..A 1 ,V', r
',and ,1965 is pr",ojected;,-I fo,,w ard, 1 it wou a ccount for t has h .,
i.n' the 197/,. and 1980s,

7, Average annual ivory values show two trends between '1925 and 1971, The
first between 1925 and 1933 wa's a< staizp delie;fo ;ich. _k linea

fii ,,I;'. b } 3 ,1 I 13 ': 4 3: A f: '" :i-,z .iie : f<' 9'. ; ).."Q 4' i,. 3 :,,=,
re sessionn is ,iven in :i. 10 (' =. -"0,971 q 3 = 0,001 ), Values fe 1 75% in"r
eight years, ]r,.det 'say W..s was cause, by-y the Qea. Dpr,-,on of the
ti me, ]t was not matched with a c elespondinci decline i n ivory output,
suggt. osti. ng '.f',) that]<' "- at>.[ l.,e-am-: in}' M'ini' period "- ivor' y valut.e ([,e, inc.enivt:,e to
trade the coiNriodity) was not a primary cause of e'li *' int. mortal it-y,

7,7 The second tren d in values ran fro.:-' m 14 until 13'971, when the-y rose a.
.n ave ag Y .o p, l.(4t ,w r V, '"3 8' ',,:.4IL33.2; J J neap :y s linearreg r 'ess on fc
tren, is sho-n in Fg 10 Q 0,84, =, ,0 1)

7 (8 Th... value in -Tabl.e 3 .42 and Fi, 10 iNn ncop td On..f 3nf'.lation, S.s
t.he .,dression and>; 1He :Seco:nd Wor,,l]d W'ar' :ompli]cat~e suc:h ,corpe-c.-.ion,, P:arker
h Graham dropped the years prior to 1950 and examined data for the 37 year:,,.
"- '-:987, Table 43i p.ese tlteir iex of d a..f
' ...- 1987 in w,, 19.0... '100, o given axe .i;?!: 'la- indices, for "he
total vlur; e of raw ivory trad,.dl, (N,:ite; t!hi- is n- ot an oiiae, of rav

ivr production tt a~- vn u l of inerutiona tradeL~ ~ii raw. ivr
.1 1 ,P 1t~L 3i b .%, .' .:-3-I, 13O 3 .. F .. ... O } --- A31
betr sttiti .1- '3.3 3:41'I whic to.,-. comar annual,~. vaue an~3 it wil include

m,, eI e : -, 5E,' O I:% j .. Ufl. LO ;'i PVI j ,-F,, ver' ... x. :4 i r-'_ 3' i !. .. 1' -. 4,,.- ':P ] l..-'2p 1 .3 v x
Of the i.Kor.pleteness Of C.sLtoms Records, it a bee e a., ... an irdex of
basic production), the World i$)n l ;an facturinq .m \ "alui Inde (!'. )
and a World Bank General Acgricultu'al Commodity 7ndex,

7,9 IV is derived fro -Oif export values to developing countr-ies for a,
"basket" of .:iem m-nufactured in five ial ta.ket :,-nome,, t
provides a bench mark against which the sta"us of cOP co"finod ':,'.ty

3.... ......... .......3 ,:': f4.3 43..ia c j1 I'.; C .,', 33. 9 ,
7,10 Three of ,.the indices ivory v'olumiie, ivv v.-alue and IV all .sho'ecd'.,
sim lr .].:, s

FO ]. F"l' l!3' 13 -" '! r': "." ; 1 ,'F '" .3' 3 :11 "' "" v .... ... < 2 ,3)1 .... 9 23
volu e r 'r. .. 901 Lo MUV r ,935': al p = 0. O'I ") A' ic "' i 3 c tural..

'(r -0,794, p = 0,'003'- ),

7,1 in t]d s l! : ituat' ioin, iq whicJ.,h ivory'-s: vo, .m'l t.!rf V .. E .,.nd1, 'IV,. -h:m,,...
similar upward trends between 1950 and 1987, they also correlated strongly
with one another: value/volume r -: 0,781;, i V/value r 0,96.5, MUV/volume r
Z: 0,93'i6; a.ll.] p .. 0,001 Andi vo../ u ri-e, value: a ld, 1Y o p!:]a e u :3 i:-/~~
w-ith t, agr i cultuLiral3. conmmfodity value trend; with voltume -0,617, r' : r
..-.. .-0,64n, both p =- 0,001 and value r = -0,490, p -= 0,01,

implies a causal relationship, The sim:ilari :;y bet:eten treds coud s.em
TrOITI aciio response to so wh-othr vartaole, Pi--,hoeed aos
about the trend in one variable are correlated with deviations about MY,
tr n in "the., .:. .- '", ... {i,= otherp s);, the .a caus m: .! : :o al., ., I }:no"hi rp is mon-o lik'O -0!."

Therefore, the time series must first be d.. rend.d and *the drata transformed
to variations about the trend before they can be mYeaningful ly analysed,

7,13 Parker h& Grham 'showed that th ereddd ta rev;aled a radical 1 y:
dif... ..ferent p'i-cF ture,, T 'he e t-ve~s no ,c,,-cr el ati on" b:etwveen vo.,lume.. .,,.,- ;H... ......w~" :i v'a-ue data ,I,;{.
Qr 0,01!9), suciqesting that the simi 1ar ity in terted vrtm a
coincidental and that no causal relationships existed e'.entmTi
Mnexpec.ed result substantially erodes the hypothesis that ivory's value is,
the reason for the volume n traded and, ipso factor, a primary cause of
elephant decline, it is, however, ent'.rely in keeping with the observatio.
ha: ,'hen the :,pric",e of ivory f.ell r1i both ."abso:lut, ',,Ie .and relative a ti er.s
.1' E", p.1el ,f[ tq ] iI',:. !,: l] .'I O '' ~ i' 11321 .-33:' : A, l 3 =, ," '"3sj.43 A '" 3 3,~':'

between 1925 and 1971..., ivory product:. kep.t risin,.

i.3 ',::; -. -e 1- ih,. t h revailing pr of ivory goes t, .. very ,-,,.' ,,' .

the contention that ivory's value caus elephant decline ano deserves more
'detailed exam ination,. R, Martin, ibson and 1C, C'a';i of the Z'imbab'i'-''
Dep::artm.L en't of Nat=.'i onal.... ,.: Parks .b_ Wildl.ife Man i~ a.gem 'entr kindly c. :] arr ied thi s ou,: ,,'
Their findi are presented in Table .4,

7,1 ...Colun 1 in Table 4.4. presents an estiimate of elf ivory 'trad..,ed

ol.:,e data!' f erom aTedbloe t104 it thF oyn'a ai io kegiv.. -en (1i7n'D :l _n
from Tabe -3 d of fiorast draft of 'is report, ee are tiienes

thism selectolun as preients4an Parker (of 9 ivr aue eiedfo awle
Table :39 al l04e) a i prstort (fale 25), &raft of thisaepor was modif ied b this ina:h.

vero .The wa inse fenti tmaio is retedf an '.' ./b-_
\'1 ,13 -~'1' i.h%' .'e ].: [(. "4 "1;114 '[; ] .1''' % ], mc' [ j 3 7:) 33. I'l" 2"1" ,: .3 1 21' .1,3 I } ', -1 3 '
the rui ove,3 rview, 1 present the a;''3' ': & 0A' :13 90 &. ~ 18 ,

pree ted wer relatedn t4,c;wt heplnma en ingvn
No 84 The resi i fo co ,r eati :h oefrge : -the data" provide eno g toudfateo
(co.liu mn ) Cl n),lt.. 3 presents a'n in"ex of ivory "vadal es derivepdo from Parkerd y
(19 Tab- e 1 -' 1 this) vi e v:ers' ', ti; (Table 25l) ad jse orvi" influence .. ..

Uh Cvolei 4),Andedponenta spequaion Paweas crate fromii conclusion that,
2-'7 ,"la.. '3 33' .. 3.. ... ":'. ,3), 'Fi:.._l. 1/'2 .i ....... 1, eq l C"]. t' 2,=- '': ;"- '1-- 'l,:'f t i 3 '.'' .I'3 r''3,,"3i ,12 '3;3-3,
ind x.=.. + 0,09 .05 where -i :=: yea.r h{ 0' lox).W it 8,,5 -: 1988h:; ": J-e,
ri s o ,te a tions) about ,hi regress-o were extracted and arc.
7,17 ine Column 34,

7,ol, Thda. es l of vo,,lumde ,wer then simi.arityo ei, tends over,
v. .7 There3' w+.1 0.0 1 .'.' aa said;.-. "9 ... 3.a-re ,

,,eethena plott ied- aga.inst both Il-,e pre ;vbmsu- and,: s-tisfequ,,:Wnt ye:ar'."s vol~umes ,
N~o si., a f; i,:ant,, co., rrel"ation -s em ,erged, [These date;..? pXrv-.vd,:e "no,1 ,..]r::UAY-Icl fov
.. h .': -y .~ *_~ .~'' I....... .........3' 3.31 ~ 'A 3- .. -' -' 33.1

prevail n'g ae.s, ,.r. vice.7 ., 3.3 versa, tha-3:t the'l' '," :3 ',A' ,313. va u3vo .i i l uenced by
I "' /'~ Ia: .-i 1334i + v I. [ 3 Ai1. ,, .' '3'. [. .;o '3-'I. '.:: a '.i] ;:': ';".0 .!~ '2 E,''3' ~ L'' 3 ', l F- L 3"repo '.:, 3L- ., ",' :

fac:x:to::,r or: ,, o'.,the r f act;o r s,

7,1t7 Pa9rker b: G-N- :am noted: no: c:or're[lati~ion" beitween, ,de'tend::ed MUV, an,:J
.... ...3, .. f''.:3].. ...... f.,: I', A 2-' 1 11.33.., '.T ..,; i u'[::, 1 3 ,; V.-u '''1"3,,'' i.3' :3.'3 o i- { -,..'. 33 3'; 3 3,33i. o 'e r3 '.;~ 'i,,

H.3-.-owever',l '". ,-': -'-" i .. '. they ib d4 pos t v ,''orr'e a a.' 'io I 3 '.,- ,3, .: -.' "
0,0. ) .a,. that as deviations.
'1';' ony a causal relationship' is highly1333" 2F33' '.J 213 3,',"723,3:1 3-31.112 13,

These f iundi ngas ra.i a os that Q be e:laied ari, due courserse and'.
in much greater detail by Professor Pearce's study,

7, !8 Surff i :c e- i t f, or thi .s r epo::," i-;: ih. --, i.f t:he c re .:bu.a. :~ ~ :e'twe>:n
ivory's value a.rd el- Kant decline, they are either fa.r rriore tenous th-n
,"' -, have or a" gre t deal. m..ore ...e 3'i L.t",,,e ,of
ithe past 4 years, tih-e role of trade now apear- far one Mt. of"
- an a c ausal age The fl t obvious cand'.darite for the unknown
factor that produced the synchrony and correlation between trends in export
volufe?; and ivory values is the human demom^r *' tt1ia5uhstrong
supor.1 lt .:, o K.[. in \/ o ni ,'s evL 7''T ide ce theor "and comm....on-sense,1F,7!1.. .+l'' )";;k"] 'a'.i 5!_ : ;:- -

8, The evidence in the preceding two sections is but a small part of that
assebled by Parker h Graham, Nevertheless it, a a

(i) Elephant decline Fis not. a recent phenomenon, b.ut has been-' i.n
progre,5s for most of this century, There was no girea.t change
in its dynamics in n recent times, unaware o:f this
saw the culm.-inate, near vertical trajectory of what has been
an exponential process as something different to its more
horizontal e..arly, What a. has ih. happened was p-redit:able
f Prom' trad; evidence between 1950 and 1965.

(iK) Elephan't d-::ecline pr1ce4 cede both when the bottom fell out of
the ivory market in the Great Depression and when the Second.
World War stopped almc.t all rade. During these two brief
periods the screen of value dropped away .o show that other
causes underlay the process,

(iii) Competitive exclusion .
caused the completee diuc
parts of Africa, ",The -m
paralleled el .'iant dec.
on7 its,' own7 could[C accu:::
happe ned,.

U v'.) Th-e devil atio ns abou:t t. h
correlate cdeviatio.
.traded, enyin a dire

Ii : :.n' -? "e:

t.4 s4f:

.' expand .. humanity h -as, alone,
appearance of elephants in many
ner in which hu'an increase has
:ine links the wo ci ell4ingy and,.
:. fori a greata$ dealt of what,. has

a:, trend inr the value of ivory do not
s about the trend o.f the volume
.: causal relationship ,between, the

8,2 Losses in range of the same ord,:
occurred in other large mammi~als which
blac-" rhio ee en ,..t s to the !--, y cif vea lue
c::ommo'n ,e.l! ementi to the hig:: h e : r,!m.,Pa~nge ] ,'

*P as "that suffered by
:0 not bear tusks, Of
compaa-ibt e to ivttry,

c~e:e,pha~ntc have
@a 1. 5 1a5ae
them, only the

larqar cammai.

with relatively catholic dietary requirements ',ie, unsp-:ec ,al :jisd nee.s)
have lst most ground. Through their lack of specialisations they had the
widst distributions iin A925,Andby. t.'i'' fa ctwv
1..44, 4: .,. 4 1 k. 3bt, 413io 114 .... ......... ,:r: P/q." 34 3:, +.1 :.4 4 .......... '-- ." 1 h v u :o''a i~ v.

have competed wit'h lmans on a 'ore general scale t han;, for, example, those
with .limited distribution,, and particular niches, as with the forest.t
dwell ing bongo, ,, .,jring this evidence has directed attention away from the
broader aspects of decline, Assum'ing ta trophy value w'as. -:he pril'mary
..cause of decline was not onl".y wrongly 3,1 but raised unrealistic hopes a.bout.,; t;he
i. nf luence trt CITES, a trade conve"tinoi, cou.,ld73 vi t,.'o bea.g t upon the

8,3 A further point of consequence concerns the' -easo for conservation
failure in Africa:i, Thoughout his decade the point h;?.s bean m,:-de f;ha.
conservation costs money, Without MInSS it annmot succeed, akr'1B?
Bell & % a.~ (1985), Leader-Wil3.liams h Albon (1985) and P'arker &Grahamic
(1989) have stressed it repeatedly, The. evid:J-nce s. at,
.in U4 e I, a." I'., 'u .. 4 ,,""tn t ,top: e:n.d- t. u, t -' ,, '.. 1c "2 1': f ,-,:
c e-: are.a1 1 t1' .;1. is n1ecessar '. 1 A'1.-.y t.o .av.\ a rea o a l 3' o f 7 3an014 ':4-'l4.,:- '

0 0 SCo SS3 C n-."

that for certainty ire than dole thi' s may be e Ev4i "om
-'Parker Graham (1' 9) i-s repr" duced inn Table., 45, :

r" '1, t. 1 t' 1. ... [V .- ..... ........ -.-fP '1
8A4 -. ., actual annual expand .iture on national park-.s in Africa (Parker :
Graham 1989) is reviewed, it is imei'P' ately apparent hy poaching an''
trespass are so rampant, Takinjg Kenya T.avo atol in eapl
this dry arid area has an c .rtunity cost of c, MIA00/00 n.a, to local
pastoralists F-avosnb:k ,er- comi'il), Co, siequently, on occasion during the

as to be visible on satellite pictures, The author ties are too
understaffed to prevent this illegal. usage, and they ,are ,understaffed
because they are underfunded, The corollary to this is that where parks are
adequately funded, trespass and poaching is successfully prevented -
re' ardless- of trade., and market demand for wildlife'odities,

8,5 it is not within C1 :. speci fic qspher:e to advi., ... -' n how ,to' ,
conserve elephants or any cther id fan and flora, However, it js
clearly very much in the Convention's interest to point out the p"ri"ary
reason why so much conservation fails in Africa, if the parks were
adequately funded, poaching within them would be altogether lesser and
V pf1'JA, ''c.141.1, "ia 42 ;:r .' 4.lh;.4X1 4'.'' 1 ":7-- .(4 >1 o 1S.P'4-'P c.,s. ,:-,'ar id
controllab.le problem, Regulating tirade, for all that it may be a. useful
prop : to, :con-:nserv nation, is no s : ubsti 'tut ute for effe:tv f : -d c i v" and--, s.tep in
the field, Parties should be made aware of this,

8,6 All the foregoing doe. not deny that demand for ivory is without
influence ..po elephant decline. However, :i t uoe. p.t is in a broader
.- *ective and su. ests that it may be as much a sp' t .i' of the h1-1 man
condition as it is a ,cau se 'in its own rit, liven the rising val...ues of
essential manufactured goods that the developing world needs and the J '
declining value of' the agricultural com-mod"ities. are .almost all that
Africa has to pay fo them, it is hardy te i ihad su-rmp' that peope turn to
ivory, it is one of the few comr oddity's the, continent produces ihat has
retained or even increased its puchasing power relative tio 'IV, 'i-;mall.
411~, U J 't ~-'~ L5 ~' 4i ai- "] sa i ni
woner, then, that it is used intensively in modern times, Te sa', lient
point, here, is not to argue over the degree to which trade contributes t1.,,
decline or to be sidetracked:: into disputing which ':f the man y influences is
the greater, The issue that the Parties :cannot ignore is that it is. one of
several, The founding premise that trade was the single causal influence is
'wrong., And equally. wr,,. w as the belief that 'provj. ding t-rade was ,,controlled
all would be well, And in sequential order, it is therefore wrong when the
trade is.- not controlledd s.atisfa:ctorily, to thei lay la'.me for far rmo''-,e
general fai lures in elephant conservation at the feet of CITES,

8, 10 Mh il e it is not the Conv:.'ent i o' s responsibility to qo .beyo.' 'd
r- '"ating international trade, it is very much in tWe ...Secretariat's.
interests to point out to its constituent Parties' that the decline shown
by elephants is both of long standing and a Cfeature of many ot'-er species'
which don't producee ivory, it should a.lso, make su"e t ,at the lack of
conservation funding in Africa is well. understood, fo'r tihiis Js of greater
importace ta anc th ay other factor in African failures to conserve, ;Only when
the Parties ..compr,'ehend this are they likely to see their ,.Convention's role
in a more rea..listic li.' ft, Their failure ;to appreciate the fact that. trade.
is not the s-ole c.:Ause f:or eleph.,fant decline hats led to unattainable hopes.



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: 3 Wilfil a I' }' F'al;!>? .-, L.. 2 Intl'oduc tion " 4 .:' Ack now ledl;)2rllents " 7 .J 4 8 c Customs Data: The paw Ivo)',:>, Tl'ade \I \I lS '-' I. 6 Cites Data !! 22 e 7 The QlJota & Per'mi. t ::'=;ystef1) 1\ 2/1 8 Comment on Customs & Ci tes Data \I '3 Alternative CCl.use of Elephant De,: 1 ine 1\ 46 10 Economics Inf 11..Jences \I 1\ 4.9 1 1 DlS(Us:;ion II S:3 1'-' L.. Coni: 1 LIS i. ons g, Rec or;'1Inendii t i f:'rlS \I II S6 1 .:. References II CO .J 14 Appendi::{ I \I 'IS TEI.blI2S 1\


> 1. Customs records, dat,", f roft) CITEt; r'l=?poI'ts and thE'; i. vory p'2rm:i t vel'ifie,::tti,on system a\'e e)(BI't'Iined 2'.nd i.t is ShOWI" th:;,t th,.:-; Customs l'Ecords pI'ovIde f.i, sl..Jpel'ioi' SOlJ'i'ce of fi'!)!,i'l which to fi'It":"'.5I.,!I'e the ivory trade's volume and value. 2. It is concluded that the measures instituted under CITES to rontroJ and I/\On1"'&01' the intel'n,:=t.ti':::>rla,l ivo\"'y' tl't').dj,: f'ta,v>3! {;:'"lIed .. Th!:.: has nei thel' been ccmtrolled nOI' Ii'JI::mi tc,ped. 3. Reasons for the feilul'es are presented: pre-eminent among them is chl'onie shoi'tage of fLlndinfJ C>.nd t.he faj,lLlre of Partles 1n Afr'ica, Europe, North America and Asia (with the singulctr of Hong Kong) to fulfil their treaty obligations to expeditlously and .;:\I::Cul'cltel.y, However, thi.s has bE!Em l'ej,nfoi',:ed by flnsconceptions (if '/Jhy elephants decline, failure to appl'ecJ.ate that it js B f:l fulfil its only practical role as an aid to other conservation measures, Such a system is Pl'oposed, Its basic eh:-fi'lent is tha, i; l'<::>'W iVOl'Y e::

) the auctioned ivorv would comprise the sum of the ivory legally out of AfrIca, However. if an auxlliary system was required, it 15 recommended that Customs statistics be adopted as the principal data source on the grounds of their proven superiority over CITES data produced over the past ten years


,. 4. INTRODUCTION Parties to the ConventIon on International Trade In Endangered Species of and Fl'::li'c (CITE::;) al'e c.)ncel'ned by' the declinE' of Afl':ica's elephants, At every Conference of the since the Convention's i.ncepti'xI, th,?y havE'! debated i.s ;;ue. The':, hoped tha.t in <',.pplyinl.;J Conventlon l'ules to l'estrict. interna.ti.onal i VOI'y tl'adint;), the tl'end be l'l?ctified, ('II' cit least Yet the (:')nvention, little from the fleld suggests' that compliance with CITES' procedures has it, Inde'ed, if tl-,ey h .",d 1),i0l'ir <:1 1"(?P')I't such as this, This conSUltancy stems from continued concern over apparent lack ':.f kno')"l '2dge i'.f.bout the i vor'y tl'ade, At t.he last Conference of thlO? PiHti,:.?s to CITES held in Canada in 1987, it was resolved (Conf, doc; 6;12) that the inl tiate a study of the Intel'nal or ivol";.' trade, ThiS is curious because it is widely contented that overseas demand pl'()vides the 'JI'eatest ilKentive to take elepna.nt tusks in f.\fi'i.c-i., A loqicd.l presumption for the lack of any specltlc call to also document this i ntf=rconti nenta.l tl'ade is that the F',Hties bE,l th,,:. tit was .:d, I'eady adeqtA<:I.tE!ly !'ilonltol'ed a.nd contl'olled, It :'C', they q"".vely mi'sinfol'ftled for, as I shall show, this was not the case, CITE:::' document Coni, 6;LZ speclfically :\n intra-Afdcan study and made no mentIon of the broader international situation, However, when agreeing to undertake the study. I was granted wide aiscretion in how I condl..KtE:d it and intl?ri=,I"2tE',j thE! spirlt, if not th,,: wOI'dinl ] of the resolution, Philosophically, there were two approaches to the issue; (i) to pay St01ct heed to the resolution's wording and confin2 my researches and comment entirely to the ivory trade withln Afric& or. eli) to try and place what goes on within the continent in a more holIstic overview, The first may have been appropriate if the internatIonal ivory trade \,1,',:0.::5 a vi l":;li.n. myster ious field, H.9.d this been so, a.':qui l' in'J 2.n ovel'V' j. 8\1.' through regional, step-by-step, processes has a basic sense, But the inte:'rt.:J.tion2',J. i.vl)ry tl'ade is n>:yt I.mdOCLJI'ili?nted, I,..tithi.n Afl'ica many people know a great deal about it, That they have been overlooked and ignored is, in i tsel f, an issue. of i.ntel'est but o!..)tsidE.' the scope of thL:i report, ::;L!ffice i.t th-=:lt i'.;Jnoranc l2 '' fOI' all t.hat :it i,;::, l1Iann<':l to the WIldlife consultant seemed tnappropriate, I have opted for the broad approach, What g08S on outside AfrJca does influence ivory trading within the continent, I shall thus try to brlng my last description of the international ivory trade (Parker 1979) up to date, in ol'del' tha.t the i.ntl'.::>:--Afric,:O\ll corflrfl:los,.=:;1y i.'l.s' eleph"mt decl:lne if .", ':clus

s assembling the data on ivory production I have also tried to assess CITe::; Influence on the pl'ocess C:-l\ld identify SUCCt?sse':;;, r,:tilIJI1'E'S and theirLe'.use'!; Hopin 3 that CITE::; will dirilirnsh the dE'cline In elepha.nt numbers rests on belief that hunting to supply trade demand is the tl'end's principal cause; an idea that has some support (cf Pilgr'am & Western 1986), If., hCII,!,'evel', this is not case; if &l'e oi;h'?l' conti'ibutol'Y 01' even dorl)ind.nt influences f()r' wl-tieh tht?re is ellso some evi,jence (Pal'kel' l! ]'J!:::') a.nd in press) -then ::pol"t and ir'l[.:n:,rt of \'a!") under the ? \fl'ica.n states' "quota" system con>':erninq l'd.W ivory e:::: I of this l'epoI't is a.n independent analysi.<:; of the :30uthel'n African ivory trade undertaken by Mr Rowan Martin of the Zimbabwe Depcl.l'tment (:.f !\I':).tionaJ. F'8.d::s WiIdl.l!' ""Ii':!nCl>Jert'lent e\c; Illy 5ub"consulta.nt. To some aegree it overlaps with my own findings, but there are minor di. ffE'..'rences il1 OLH' inh?I'pl'etations ':..ti the d8.ta., t,,!,;:> !1.-1.\'' not tl'led to them fOI' t!i.' O I'eason;=.;, As they :;tand, they :ilJl,.,!Sti'2.t\? the inevitab1.e outc()me ()f ba:,;'lcally .:rLlde dat;: . collected and inteq:Heted fl'Ofl) ,ji.ffeF'en); approaches: it is a point which needs to be made as the nature of the ivory tl'c:lde \1,'1 thi n Af ric;:.. def ies ise rrlea.sul'entl::.-nt, And we have had ni::i tt-'18C the time nor resources to discuss our results, rl '::ecQnd bv 111' Thom FI' j,,?dlein on the i. vory tl'clde inUre d 'Ivojr' e was planned to c:omplert'lent MI' 'l::\l"tin' s on :30lJth'?I'n ('Hr 'ic::I, beyond OUI' contl'ol this st.ll'vey IJJas dela.yed a.nd l.ts I'esults have to appear independently, Cote For wi ll. A companion to this report, whose genesls lay in the need to quickly Pl"ovid>:? CITES \1,' Q'=> \vide 1 ':y f':epor t to (H P}'(]Jection cd ll,lo/,'y PI'odl.ict.iori and its Implications for C0l'7s21'vation of .c}fl"ican Eleph.ants), It shoedd be I.?ad \ thi::; to br'oaden per" :;;pec t i ves The first draft of my report was to the CITES Secretariat and, thi'ou,]h them, to tr't', Interl1<:\t;ional Cons2i'vB'C'[Oll tk'nitrJ"in';j C,",ntr'e's Trade and r'1onitol'ing Unlt' fOI' criticism ;:Pld COh1fltl?nt, It was not forthcoming and after a three month wait I have been comp011ed to proceed their inpl...It, This i.s unfortLmat.e qiven 'the UI'9E' .'llcy with IIJhich the elephant problem is generally perceived and even mare so 2S I am of both bodies and I wOL41d like to have cansidel'e,j their defences before m'l findings, Alre<1.dy the deJ.a,y '1e>.S reduo:.'d this document's value; if extended it will be of no use whatever to the CITES Elephant I,t.tod::in>.:::l Gr':'Llp i'0l' i.ts in .July 1'3}39 .. ()I' to the: Conf'.?r'encE.' of the Pa I' when the'! ffl'2et In L .3.l.Js.S'.nll:' in October 19::;9. In both Cd.Sf2<;i, the content ner:.-,js to be "Jell befor,?hand if it is to contribute to useful debate,


I, 7 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS t-1any people have a:':,s,isted Ilh? in one way 01' ,mother, ')1' 1....f\"\\I.litt.lnJ,;]ly to r.)r'cujt.Jt:':.,? thi':;j \"epor't thel'll .I, Ba. \'zeio, J, J. C2Jdwell, G, Caughley, Lee Chat, '8, Cobb, C Craig, H, DublIn, D, Glbson, A, Gr2, h::I\'n, C, Ht.edey, D, 1-1,/!::1'2, E, L,:t Pointe, P, Lu>::rnorE", F.:, r""ll'tin, F\:, Mar'tin, A, fling-Chi, D, N';l., M, I\!ol'ton-(=jrifflths, P, Olin':::o, C, F'al 'i::er, D, R, F'o\t,tell, L, Rarlemtulli:'.,1 O. K,T.lAIA_119. TrtOI....h,;Jh SioleJ.y responsible for the Vlews expressed her8in, 1 thclnk all for their personal inf lU'21Ke and help, The Hon';J [c": i.:'ition Liftil ted l?std,blish2d 21, fund of 1/:;$30,000 upon v,thich I could dl'2.t,\,\I t.o [Lilld under' this consulte\\lc)' that mi,.;tht r'II.? beyond the of the CITE:::; All e:::e, DI' F'er",z Olind), Chairm;:OIl1 of, CITE::: Afr'lcan Elephant'kin ';l Eil'OUP, F'l'ofessor David Pea.I'ce of tl-lI=: L(')ndQ\1 En'-li \'ollrf!l2nt.1 E.:on':'fllics Dr ESIYtond i'!al' ConsLllt

I, I .. 1. A BAC::::GROUND 1,1 Looking at columns o f statistics 0n the_r own may be a necessary fJrst ::;tep in undel'st.;,.ndinq d.n -L''::;SI..JI? SI.,\Cll 2l<:i the ivoI''y' b l.Jt only if knowl.ed;Je of 1 ts pol i tics, cCtnduct, (c\uses, I;)Oa1-:5 a.nd hi.story <.u'e e\bsent., If information on these topics is avaIlable, then the dry figures of trade corfle .::tllVe, FUt'thel', a tape'sil'y" of the lIving !'!'!of')d, >:::hd.nnels for' prodl..,K ti ve reseal'ch and oW id cul-de-s2;cs tri,r(!!::!I:; y ;:"-Op&.rent, Experience. as in all human fields, provides short and guides future endeavour, This f il'st Stel:tU)1l (:h'aws on per':jollc..l knoy/ledge cl.nd e::q:II?I'iE!nce acquit'ed Clvel' t.he past :::::: yea-l":S, It is s:.J..,lbjective to ci degl'ee 3.11 overviews al'e, in their f in.OJ. l ."..ned'is .;, It i.s I;)"lven to pl'ovide a. ,:anVEI.S I..Jpon which d.::>.ta 111 sl....!bsequent s"'.:!cti,_'ns can be pl2\1:ed and e::::tend tha.t published (h)I'ker' 1')79) up to ,l::tte, 1,2 SOMe of my informatjon was acquired confidentially, Some has that extend beyond the sphere of conservation; elephant biology or ivory tr8ding, Exposing may be a scientific requirement, but it can al so be senseless in wid'21 cO\lh?i' :t; thC).n sc lence and conservation, In some it IS definitely contrary to the art of good livlng, In fal' cIS it SE"!ems i'easona.ble to I sh:;..ll tr'y to <-.ded fjl' owned 11.'i th I;]OvE.'rnmE":nt. pl?rrni. ssiol1 i:twarded tl-lI'QU I,;)h pel'mits .an,::-J lic\=;nl:es, In la.w. thel'ei'ol'e, 'Ghe ':itate claiflls 2, fundamental monopoly of ownership over ivory, 1.4 WhIle this is both and wideJy understood, it has never been genera}ly accepted, The official records (e,g, Anon 192519(,.':, {, f(elly i97E: arflong rl\e<.ny) h<.ive, V-lr'oL!ghout '.h_,; cent-ul',),! r\"lade;'2nt and continuous \ efer'12\1Ct? to "PO-3 . :l""dn,:]": thCl.t 15 tal-:: in9 ,="d.ephEAIyts .::iIld iI/CITY without govel'nment pel'fl\i::.sio\"l, In the ""':llne \f\?in! .::\\"ld a ']enel'B.IJ.scl .tion, rl..Jr'aJ. C()flH1H.mitie's do nc,t consid21' ':'iI.Kh P'-'i'jl:hill;).'?, cl'ime by their more',:;! ne,l" I'eport those who dc, it to the d.utl-ol'iti.,::';;'. (e,I,;) 197.5) 1,.S f{easons f (.) I' this aI">?, rih':<.ny.. bt.,f"t (c:;"'emos;-.t arilong ::.hE.'m is thl:? "monopolisability" of the l'(?'50Ul'>:'2, It i. s distributed, readily accessible to t h e populatlon, and extremely difficult to It 15, fOI' -i),,,=.-F,l,nti.the'Si. of i.n this 1'2Spt:?Ct, The lattel' .. Ixcul'rinq in "pi.pes" thEI.t 8.1'8 Vf""';' J,xz.d, a.l'e I'ec:\ del' ens ib Ie, Qn 1 y o::;ril1.11 <:>.\'f?<3.s ;:1.1"1:; i nvo J. \/1::15;. ';iI,H I'lj--:, :Hld b :;\l' c<.,tIl pI'eveni: the popu 1 ",.1: e f roft: cl.\f.::1i 1 i. n l;:) therir::iEd Vf.!" of d:l2I1i\O'-,ds cl.nd the \',?SOLlI'Cf' C

'I Ii L '3 :;tat'2 has c l.ssl2rted and l::!i<:ercls10d ito:; fll CJnopoly (.V':"I' th.:::ffI, h; be,'::n 111 discreet (and usually small) units -national parks (Parker Graham 1989, & 1988', f: A fundament;:il conf 1 i,:t c,f PI'"".,. tIcal i nt'2rests thu"S p1'eVi'..i 1.s w:idel'f. The it,:; limit(2d personnE>l <'rld l't:!'50Ul'C2!S is':E! to its de Jute monopc>ly OV'.:'!l' ivtl'Y. The popl..lla,:e, in it:; abl..lnd;:\f!ce and ';J'.:mera.l distdbl ....(tion.. is de facto better able to use the \'eSOU1'ce C'.nd does so d':::"::;pite bEinq debc'.l'l'ed f rom doin'd 5(' lav,tfull.y, e::{(.ept i.n 8. V21'Y .I.i.mited fila.nnel', F1'ee 1:.rc\de in j\'Oi'y !'<}oI..Ild l'8501ve the inher'2nt ':onflict, but UH:: CQllCept of state oWll'2t.5hip in addii:i.on to l'Eti.sinq J.SSL!eS th",.t most 'Jovernments wOI..11d n,)t C<.l.l'e to C(ir;templ,::lte. th10 pl'oblem is bUG lmtil all t?lephdnt p'.)pl.lla.tions 2'Te sLlfficiemtly small t.o be defended or effechvely Iflonopollsed, the will continue to strongly favour the over the licit, 1,9 The second factor is ivory's international value and lack of natIonal identity. ThIS is particularly important in modern whose currencies have little international weight, Where generally vary '.;!l'ea.tly in -the d'?';Jre'? of theIl' dep1'ession, iVOI'Y is an Int'?l'nation.3.l currency with substantial purchasjng rOW8r In the depressed and disrupted to'c,.:momiEs of r-10:':Cl.mbl'1I..'\e, Tanc::ania c .... n'i 7;"-fI"IbiCi.) fOl' bi's i,: such as mat.ches, soaps 01' co.:.kinlJ OIls are unattB.inable fOl' lon';] yet eH'e l'eadUy aV<.dl.:;!bl>.? i.n countl'ies, it is tlardly 5ul'prislng that ivory is bartered across borders to acquire them, As ivol'Y he!:':; been and a IfleEtIY:; \>Jhei'eby -the in,jivtduB.J. couLd resol ve 01' clfllel iOl'B.te the econorllic pI'oblems c r-eated by (.lIer-centr'al ised 01' stagn.3.nt economies, tt is '!Jidely USf2d, And b'l the saml2 tob.2n, i.ts us':.? ;.0 avoid or evade state controls greatly relnfol'ces i ts predIsposition to move a.lon,;! i 112,]<:\1 channels, 1,10 The thnd factol' 1'= jvcl}'Y'S bulk, Gi.ven thE' pl'eSSI.,\\'ES within (Hnc.a for ivoI',/ to be Llsed oqi:; the l

1 .k I ... In 1, '12 Tusks :il'e val'iously ': . .:quir'E'.:.I, ::;01'1112 ;';'.1"12 1'2CO,/'21':?d fl'om rV: tl...I1'c'd mOl', In 1'37::: I a 1a.l'ge sarnpl.t:' o'f :tvol"l in Hon'::J Von>,;) o.nd con: luded th,':\ t 22i rn::ty have 01' i,'jin<;!.t.ed thi'o,.Jgh llc),tUl'<.d rilort<::d i. t'l CF'ad::el' 1979), In 1986 I examined a small sample of six tonnes in Antwerp and found WD.S )1>":1, w2n.thel"2d and likely to have (Jime.' fr')1'11 na.tu1"r.,l.l de'::!.ths (Pa.l'k:.:.'l" ]':.If:6), iV01'y fl'()I(1 this; S')LI1'C'2 h.?lved i.n::1 decsde, If(lplYHl9 that the Pl'opol'tion of t!l'epl'1;::'.nts killed by mall by 1 ike ar(, made cursory examination of some 160 tonnes of tusks in Burundi in 1986 and '1':3:=':::;:, I .:onfirm that, I,IJithout bein.;] te. <''Iscl' .:7. pl'opo1'tion to it,' i.s sti 11 a rela.tively cort'lponE'nt of ivol'Y in tl".?de thO'.t is weathered, uf which may stem fl'om deaths. 1,1:::: Othel'!::s a.I'8 fl'om elt;;plla.nts ki lled prin,:ip3.1ly for [(IE'<".t and fl'om which the ivory is <'.l.n bY-PI'oduct, this ha.ppens, the huntel";:; hold the iV01"}, untll loca.l '-,l" tl'cyel1in.;! mei'cha.nt rt'!2J:es,. contact with them, rather than the owners tak" Ig the selling initiative, Such tusks are often burled or stol"eri In the of a smoky hut for long pel"iods, 111 both;:j th'2'/ BcqlJire chap.'Kterl-itic sUl'fc.\ce rea.tures, 111 the >3(!, C!OO tusk s s.?en in E:ul'und i, these f e.,:,. t'."Ires W2i'e r E'c!.d i I}' appar'eni (:,nd lndl.:ated th.::tt elephants killE.',j fol' ''(Ieat al'e sow'ce of i\'(I\',;/, Howevel', while the proportion formed of the 8uI'undi ivory viewed was not estImated, it seemed small. 1,14 More common and widespl'ead are t1f' hunteps take several elephants <:1. ye"'.I' .3.'3 3. pa.1"t-tiflle Ihe intensl tf of thi'5 hl.mtii1q !,I,'idely .. is tied to the ?vciJ.abilitv eJepha.nts (is pl'ev::t1ent I,IJh\'?1"e they al'e CI)I't't/i'lOn but ,j',I}i.ndles .S tl"'Iey wi.thTn th"", hunte,'s' "horne l".::o.n']es" (i,e, the ht.mter's do not tl'.::lvel OIJlt<',lde t.hell' tl'ib21 01' tl'aditjona.l lands), It also tends to be seasonal I suspect is the major source of ivory UJf:ijn.;! of those sections elf Afl'lca \l.'hei'e the PI..lI''::;] pe()ph=.' .:'\I'e not dlrectly dependent on either national or international cash economies, 1,1.5?-1 pe.:tl'Llffi of str-on.,;) evidence th:l); inSt.!l'I'ections 'O-;uch 8.5 those 1. \'I V ( .]. v 1 n.;] the in the the !'1NF: in i-lozaflll::n .' UN I TA l n Anqola, the PLZ in Zaire and the Holy Spipit movernent in all acqulre i vOl'y del ib:?l'atel y d.S curr'2ilC y v.'ht;::'I' t.h to buy :::,:pAJ.pmE1i'1t 1'01' 1;hei I' 1,16 Then there are ivory hunters who do little else but k!ll eJephB.nts, E:ecaLise th'2ir ;:\1'2 intensi:! and . :I.Alt l;O conc':="d.l. they tend to move abOI.At in belll';jer'ent ']2'.n .:;),=,. Inval'i2.b1./ they "'.re a.liens 01:1JE:!l'B.tin';j l.;heil' 0\1.'1'\ tl'l.b;:;..l, tl'a.d:i.tiol'l::d 0\' n,?tional 1<:\\1,j,,; and 10':.:;'.1 attItudes tOWBi'ds such intrusion contl"ibutes directJy to their bell.i.,)2I'erK""'. The [1\Ost pporninl'?nt

11 .:!uI"n.] thE.' life of tr'te Sj:II)l'tsmen, .:.n1.,-inh: ",.hen their owners die and the 1vory 15 disposed of by their heirs, 1,19 ?\n V.}l.uffn: of i.vclf'Y is d':qutl'fo'd by ']OV,21'nrnents !.n defence of crops and property 1,20 Given the dIverse orjgins from whlch r8W ivory is derived, the followed to enter international trade outside Africa 3re ffiany complex, In the of thoSE' lAtho acquil'e IV(!I''l 111o:iclenta.l1y or d'3 by-pi'oduct of me<'lt-huntin';:j, tl..Jsks flkt'l p< thl'ough iilerd"li).l1ts' het.nrJr.; befol'':? 'I;ht? Doint of l.Ase or e::q::ool't, F', 1")1' e::::ample, illel'cha.nt.: bLlYll1';) in nOl'thGl'n Kenyc). fO!' e;,::pol't Ar;abia also eiYIUi l'(::.-j l:Oj' the1.l' iel's whether they had any tusks to sell. Pastoral nomads are perhaps the best pl.d . :.ed of all peoples t'J 1':tnd 1.VOI'Y fl'olYt n.::;.tLlr;:d. i)'tOI't.::d.'!' ty and to hl.Jnt elephants Ct':; a lucl' sidE.'line to the1\' hE:l'chng, I'JeedJess to Sr.lY, the cclttle buvers i).lso aC'11..Iil':;?,j d. amount ot' i.'lIWY, In ;:ambi;:;., whel'': hLllltin';} traditions al'e stl'O\ll;t, a man \,)ishinQ t.) hlS income by sellin.;) one 01' SeVel'21.!'S of tusks, me>y '01 "i.flt':! fl''-:)flI.'" Tl'iend .. P1Al'cl"ICl.SS' .::0. I'ol.mds I,f ammunit.ion from aXtother, and thell hLmt, The tl..I':,I::;::; so acquired will almost inevitably be to a trader well-known to the hunter, Where the tull--tirflt:: hl..Jnters al'!? conce;'nel-" a.s th the the ivory may pass directly from them to an 1.21 The pattern and pace of tr2de flow WIthin Afrjca's Ivory commerce 15 of progressive concentration &nd acceleration, of individual tusks may be l'apid vihel'e the pl'ofessionCils al'e f 01' ,.=:'::<:amp1l't I e::, t hd.d bE'.'en obta 1 ned 1 n f: .. bE:l n9 fOl' e::<:por't in 81.AjWilbLIl'.?, Burundi only tl,t.!O to 'dwee weeks .3oftel' t.he elE'phants f i'Gril which it hZ!.d cornl2 IJ,tel'e shot, FOI' the mos t p2.l't, hcw':'.:''i.=r, tusks that I examined in BurundI were much older, Many been buried for '::;0 Ion.] JGhEd,Lheil' outel' I a Y>:::l' ()1' bco.l'k !V'i\S phYSIcally d"181l';J2d, Over<. .. d.l, rn,/ impl'es':;ion Ii'Ofil handlIng nea.rly 1;::,000 tusks in 19f:6 '::,nd seein';1 2, :.imilF.\l' nUlnb,::.'p j.n 1'3::::3 a.lbeit in 8 CL4l'SI.)I'/ \l,'c's thE";; ha.d been out ,)f their originating elephants for less than a year and many had been mOVIng in ti'E!de for c.. 'lot lonqe\', In an:::i.lclI]y, it eerfll::.j .}=: thou,;)!! tusks ,s .. :cufftulated into bi,;), s]oli.'''flol;Jin,;} ]"iV91'S a.s they tOI)')2.l'ds the l:':':'::PUi't j:I!Jints, :}\t,,tlft movement and l'apij tl'ansacbons seenh?d to be :::(ceptions I 1,:'::::':: lhe fOl'e,;}oing is ct tthwnb-nCli]' sk,?tch, It ',l/ould not bf.: difficult to docf.Jment flt.,:lny indivi.du;: . l c.;;\s::::.'s., but th.=,y v.'ould tak8 a gl'eEI+' of t,'lme to c(Olflpile, They would V81'ia.ti.on in det.

, k h '12 criminals, The likelihood of a mafia-like structure evolving must be incl'e.:::lsinl,;}, yet, the SLim of infclI'r'lcltion .'=11. fll y di.sposed indicates a free-for-all situation still persists, Certain prominent tr',:'!del's' nafl'll".'s havt: H1 ths' press \lnth the insirn,,!,,\'l:ion thdt a.r'e ',)v,,;,rloi'ds' in the l'fl;:'.f i.;:;.. "iense. The e\fl(ience 5U,]'Jesi;s to the contr<:ll'Y; the\' m.9. y hi:. ..... ve 'sailc'd close tc' the 'JJind', but theil' f,!'lrilc.'Ii'y rl!od'! of OPE'l'.:l.tion heis been a:;tute LI'5e (if br.:,si2s whel'2 trn:=il' ct,:tivlties aI"? not ille1;]211. Within Afr'ic;:.., the most IH:>'?ly crinrini:J.l contl ol. ,)!' i.vor'y production '.viI1 t< will be the tliole-honoLll'ed system of 'pI'otection': .;:., proportion of value being paid for to look the other way as well as pr'ovi,je essential docLlmentati')n, The de Jure state ol,o.'nel'ship of the 1"12<:50UI'Ce stl'()n';jly pl'edisposes CI'lfllin<:O l conti'oJ. to lO('::t1:;e i );'3el f wi th til 90\iernw.?nts rather than outside the'!I, Thel",: is SUbstantial evidence that is happening. 1.22 The most pervasive influences on Africa's ivory trade between 1979 and have bE',?n continued inc I' th(:.' ,-ontinen'G's e,:o';ol'fli(: and CITE::;, [vidence ':if the fil'st '1:f,!,'O will be pr-esented late!' in this :::;uffic:;,:' it th2.t. bot.h hay"," been powel'ful 'i.ncenti'ves to ,:,1' take iV')l'V, Risjng human nuri!bel's have ha:,:"tEmed the ei'c>sion of eJ.:phant F'21"1ges that has been I'i'ld.nifest at h?ast si.nce a.nd probdb1y much 1011,]el' .. e::::plQitin,] i;heil" i vor'y 1 ,2Ll t,lone of the ivory [ Ii:?r-chants i Af I' ica "'Jhom I talked to 1"?] '! solely on tusks fOl' their li.velihood, ::;ofl'le 2-.1"'2 IYlOi'e involvt?d with ivo1"'1' tha.n other"::;, a.ll aTe also E:!ngaq(;,j in othe\' COflilt'lerce, Any in deoth i nves tig<, . tion the i. VOi"/ tr':Kle I'evt'.':ils conn::;c tHins i. n 2. C,jflH!'I'?I'C i.::!..!. 'lili'?b whose outflows caver the gamut of 5 produc2 but particularly the e::<:otic, commodi ties of 1;)01d "'.nd Th,.'? inT 1ml}':=::; 21T2 1.y vB.rled -ranl,;,!inl.:;J from ceontc:liner' lOi::lds 01 to c')okin';J oils t.1nd S(1<:;,\P -but with emphasis on manufactured goods yen0rally unattainab\e in Afl'ica, '1.::::.5 Stdkingly., and in contr'3.,jjction of t.r"le pc-pular flledia. irnpres'::;ion, IVOI"( not into forei.',;]rt e::<:>-\-'ICln';)'? wi,.lch i.':; tl"!l.:?r1 In ::;\.\!i.':';5 bank :-'.c,:oun"ts to Afl''s total loss, ::;;Ofl'lt:= of Ule r'evenue involved may not directly to Africa pal'tlcularly the bpibes paid to officials -but overwhelmingly ivory wealth does return to the continent In some aspect of tr', {-l ']l"I?E!.t de;::d of thl.s i"j ')l"r\;'sicie 'JOV'i!i'l"II':'l elTc cont:".::,J and 1::n:2I'haps ';jovernment kn o I JJleclqe., for iVO)l Y ..,hth la.o:k of md;j':,n2d. ident:ity., lS 21. f.n'ime (ol'fll'l)odity f01' .:;.voldinq contl'O::,J.s, F::.? as l (; rntty: bE.'iiE:!r:it fl'of!'1 r'aw i.vor'y tl'ad:in';:J does aCl:nAE: to Afl'i,:a ':'.ncl i-:.:; v!idely The


to ", .. h Un s hai=-'Pl::\'lS m",y i:h'? llihen PI'of [L v id F'e;:,j''-': (? ';j sister study pjcks up the threads developed during my own investIgations, 1 .2!:. In the .j,;:! i:c\. numtll2r of ';jover'nr (Il::?n+.s h,olve _'.l.lo' ; .If!d thei r' ':Olmtrles t.o be :Jutlet:; .-. the ::;Lld;:;\ll, Centrc,l Afl'jcan Ht:!pl.ItoJ jc ."tllel ::-;0 f f l c,. 1 1<:1 fOI' e:} rflay claHiI a. fIl(IIIUpO).y ov,.?r i.v(n"y, but have been un.::,ble to pl'event t.he j:"18o[:.,le "i'1'OW usi ng the r e,;ourc,? And in suppor't of thi.s, It i.s 'j[ \lot.:? that the"! q"(::.:,t'.=st sL4p;:,ly of ,)ffl.CEll )\'OI'V, that is those t.JJlsls held by !)CivEI'nment.!:.; i::, seized contl'D. ba.nd. 1,::::::: If the of lVOI',/ l"esernbles a ).::':d',::e I':ver', 8ul'undi.'s positlon thl".)14';JI) tr,e pt'?rloG 197'3-19::::7 wa:::; of i;ht? fI"lc..jOI' chann(?l i.n ti. complex delta. The decree banning trade in ivory introduced in that country in 1987 blcn:ked -1::his ,:h':Hmel. Yet. jU<5t as a d::,fiI c .;..nnot 'jl;OQ the flow of .-:t l'l vel', the (lLJtcome of this event wi II Df-' CI. t9111!=-":,,'a.l'i' dawlil n ] follm .. ed by an outPOL41'.i.n'] ;:'.5 the \'i.vel' fi.nels l1ew charn\l?ls ", .. nd ol.Jtlet-i. thac, inde,.?d seems to be the case. Despite 8ul'undi's cessatIon of trade; elephant huntln,;) contInues. Re':'2nt lilfol'rriation 'i.nd \'Ufi"lOI ..ll' ,-:,f 'i:?l''y' j.Oli"J'O: shipmE. nf;s ()70 tonnes at a tlfi"le) leaving the Tanganyika coastline are In keeping wlth the anal..:),;:!;;. 1 .27 The f')l'egQil-lI;! pI'ovides sorne bctckground a,;)ainst".? ende.:woLIl"S tQ ,:e,ntl'ol intel'l"Fc\.tlOI1.':Il lV01"f tl'adi.n'.J thl"ou':Jh CJ rES r(IU51 ; be While tilt? Convention's SecretarIat and Consultants can point out basic issues which may influence the ivory trade, many arp beyond a trade"! treaty's mandate or stl'LKtur-e to l'esolv2. Under' CIT[:::;, i.nfol'fIl2Ition may be collected, tl'adill9 rules drawn UD and commerce monitored, but these can never be more than SUPPOl'ts to the mOI'e fundarilEmtai steps needed "\:..:. oi'it?nt ivoI'Y traciin'.;:i in Afric.::, .. ::;uch pOInts should be bOI"ne in mind when asse5s1n'J the infll...Ience that CITES may have had on ivory trading. 1.2::: The nub ,::.f CITES' infl.uence :in thE! requil"2filent tha. t 8.11 international movement of species (or parts thereof) llsted on its ,;:..ppendi':e'5 -of \."""! eteph<.<.nt [\iOr'y is ,)ne -shl)uld be by official permits. Where Africa and ivory 15 concerned, there is 11ttlci! new in this, f10st st<:.d;es I-,eld n;:,.i; i.or\2I. 1 J.ctlJ,IS thi.::; 1.0\1'] bef!)I'e CITE::; cam e I nto b"?i.n'], In [ i l <-iny, h.::\d to be licensed dealers befol'!"? th12Y ,:ould ,?>::port eleph.=. .nt "!;usks. lndel.: j, nothing tha.t 1-:<:IS been laid down as CITE::;' l't?quil't"O!ments e:::ceeds those derll':.H"lCi.='d unclel', TO)' exawple, Kenya's or Tanzani.a's laws. 1.2'3 Whel""' CITE::; rielS had a major corl'espondu-I';j impol't perml ts to be Where once one government sanction needed. As mare and more countr\es impa,:t. .. hC,l,!,'E:ver', is jn lts cal) fell' g iven oy those countries Africa. the exporter's 5uffjcAd, now two are a(ceded to the COllventiorl, ivory traders


I .\.1 'j t. confirm th:yt (ompliarK2 \i,lith i.ts \"ules Ide prol;Jl'e<:isl.vl.:::ly rflor'e difficult, Of the two elements have contributed to this most pl'orc)undly -c\nd 1I'11f-)Ol"t p':?l'm.its --all <:1.1';jl":?e tha.t It has bf:.'E':n the need fe)\' import pt?r'!lIi t!:. that pr'odu1:t?d thi2 ';Jreai;(?r 1 nr'litn tion. 1 The nt?elj for fIla.t.:hi.n9 e::,::pUl't/!.Ii,pol't peY'mi.ts directed the fl.o'},' of h")'I"! both within and outsIde Africa away from countries whose governments str'ic'Uy d,ppl:i.<::?d the l', to',1J<:I.1'.J:5 thos,: who !,I}I:l"e l''?ss fB.stidiolJiS Oi', i.n p.;:',l'tlculal', to those who hc . d still to becQme pB.r'ties to thE.' Convent.ion, Yet, tl':::\d1ng b':canH::: difficult, volume of lvory i.nvolved l' emc:. i nee1 hi l;Jh v,'!? 11 1 n to the 1 9:30s DL!ba i .:;1 nd 1 ngc:po I' e we I' e the mos t pI'orninent o'i' th,: entl'E'pots thl"ouqh which 1VI)I"/ 'c\s lal,i,lflAlly t'i'a.ded in noncompliance WIth CITES rules, Being entrcpots, th&y had no internal markets fo), .lVOl"'y' cme! h<':I,d to fliove 11:; on 2lthel' to merllbers of CITES or process it partially or completely into a finIshed product, 1,::;1 E:oth l'outes taken. CITE:::; F'Ct.l'ties 'l;he mOV83 by ir!\port pt71'mi ts t,.-, iV01'Y COl..lntl'ies !,I,'hid'l viete not F'a.l't.ies or lI .. hich huled to cOfl!ply \},'ii.h CITE:;:; rf"qui1":1l)(2nts. This Ii}?-.S inl'tid.ll';' appUed to raw, unwo1'ked tusks but latterly has heen extended by Hong Kong (the major ifllpOl"tel') to b.;)th .... orked and pal'ti.::dly \liol'ked lV')\'Y. Th'2s,,=-, Pl'CJ',;)1'8S<;i'l8 steps crimped ti'ade .;:l.l"Id is ',;)I'adw:<.lly l'enciering use of nOll--C11"1::::; entr'epots mOI'e Ulll'2\'\I,:u'dinl;j. rC)t the s:arne tim,,: they put :i pI',:rt'dum on la\l}ful Ct.nd, if lKlt lawful, at least cOl"lvincing The cvtcomes are readily apparent in the following sections' 1 ,::::2 si tLlation, 'coda'll, is C 'Jil'f used The reasons to i VOI'Y <:,\,12 .5 stl'on';J.. 1 f not stl'Olll;)el' than ever, The >:::leph.::tnt l"eSOU1'C'::: continul2S to decline despite attempts to regulate the tusk trade, In context it is s t i" i k 1 nl;] 1 y .: J. eB.1' th.::: . t wh i lethe I' <:? S /:)'.?<:? n a. \If i de'5p r ea.>:1 hope tha tel would dimInish the volume of Ivory traded .. it has never been 'stated what the (Il"de I' of tr'll? dim'inishment sl"loLild be, l .. :,ther than the '/-::HJlAe belief tha.t \1}h<.,tevel' pl'ocil.Ktion occur-s, it. she'l..lld tit? sU:it;:'.inabl . :O, III view of TctctOl'S, thei'e i.s ,",Ji:pl,? gi"'ound to ;: ... wr':ethel' the steps '30 f;:i)'

!, 1 C '..1 CUSTOMS DATA: THE RAW I TRADE 2,'i Know]edge of lS fun,j.".IliEmt"d. to [1)<'1 riel I] i n';l n2.ti')nc:d ec6nomies, Dut.i.e:s a.nd t<.l.;.::es on irflport':; ln ,50rn:=->::;;:'.S8S 'H'e ess .?ntl.::d sources of revenue to most guvernments, Customs & Fxcise Departments \\'()l' :il'l? the officic>.l fOl' ga.ther' L-lfoti!l2>.ti::ln <:!nd tl'ade dl.J.8S, Becc\us' of thi::.; impor'tant l'clle, they c1\'t? cll (r:m;j t,,?ttel' funded c'.nd unif,:')\"'IYll'/ competent of .,,11 ,]()vt::'l'nrlll?nt. 01'9c'.:"1'=5, Th':.!ii' "':?,I::'I'd-.:; commerce in 1vory and have done so at least as far back as the last century (Pdl'ker 1 ::c':n 2,2 Parker (1979) illustrated the volume of detail avaIlable in the wOI'l,j's flloni.:hly ':).nd "'.nnClilt Cu-::;tofn':; & [->:;:[S':2 l'E.'U)I'ds, n-1'2';' c;l overview of the intel'll<::mdon Univl?I'sity Envlr'onmenta .l ::::'_QilOnn.cs CeTGC2, pl'in...:ip<".ll)i from the E:I'itish Govel'nments Depa.l'trfll?nt of TI'c\,je and Industry libl'2,ry in L.ondon, L.' of time pr8v1::.nted appl'od.l::hE.'S to indiv'!Gu

1 I< I ... II; !.ffli=n)r'h=.-d fl'om Afl'io.:8. by 'lVOI'Y nMtlons Uv;.n geil I2i' appears to have been exported by Africa, (ii) TheoreticallYI exports should equal imports in volume and slightly lower than imports in value (as the latter should be former + insurance costs), In practice this often does not happen tor variety of reasons such as:-,/ ("'.) The af')l'ementi.or:ed v, n(,t. an'ive. untll .JC:I.m.!c,.\'v. Thi=:; is fJar'tlcula.!'ly the ,:a.5l: W!l!?n thl? COOmll)I.:llty l,':; by sfta; (d) values conct?i'ned, e."T"Jj'i; ar'e uSLlally quoted fob, whereas impol'ts are given cir (e) -:;Olfn? IVOI'Y is ti'aded i n b(lnd (this ]5 pi'i'tJ.l:uJarJy the cc;.s2 Wl, th Bel! a.nd thus I'flay never' '1pP'2ai' in the Customs record of the country whereln this may take place. In the same vein. S0me ivory is as originating in countri2s it MHy have had an in-tl',z'.nsl t c;i;H.Y 01' f I'om whelKC i t rerouted after having left Africa, (f> Some countries' fiscal years (e,g. India's) do not coincide wIth calendar year's. as do the major_tv. complicating comparlsons of annual trade between n.ations; (9) High or import dues, desire to conceal income from ta> : : d.l..Jthol'j,ties, <:;md ',;tI'2 .t>']I;!i..::'s to move (h) out of countries with exchange controJ restrIctions, induce merchants to f.:::tJ.sUy I't'a.l .:ind from theil' respective Customs authorities. Where they are successful as 1n the Sudan (Martin 1986) Customs data will reflect lower vd]ues and volumes than are fact traded; Lega.l 1't?stl'ictiJ)n I m tl'.).din'] i::j ':'.lsl"J i.ncentive to hide ivory in commerCE. This, too, leads to deliberate l.llldel'st;:).t '2[ijl'?n-cs in Cu'::' "':'l'fIS HLI[Clan falli.bil:ii.y: ivcr"( 2<. fl"<:iCtioll of the i:ountr 1 lfl'lPOi't ::, .::\\"1..1 i.n


,(, ,I.. II .. l'e':Ol'c!'3 'ill be':::ll I)"f d .:v::>.::otmt, tf) tho'52 who made them, In clerical recorders tend t,) b,=.' 1;;..:-::, ri (; l.::'.ss:t('5tCc;..tiOli of thj S =1or'1; of error was revealed by the authorities durlng this study, CU':5toms i.l/or'y e::<:f)ol't l'E::'I:oI'ds dld no t (:01 ill: 'lde wi th the Department of National Parks & Wildllfe ) ecords, Wh,.'?Y't 1. t Wi::I.S f ,)lmd th;:( t -'I . : J ha.d 2nl.;"?r,::::d the volume of into the ivory column, The point 1.S the rnQI'e \JJhen It is thcl.-:; "7' t:: ... t -, ,.,., ':J'. .. ,... .. -\' .... 1 1 'I -'f V-I 'l' 'n' ; 111 '.I ,.lfll.Jct I\llt:' :; ) ,'.1. .. 1 I I :> d 1 t._ e,. I.J c\ t:' .. ) I I '.:J I.., c\ J 1 . J i.nternF.t.tion,!'>.11 /' 2 7 :::;uch dlsadvB.ntc\I;]e:; 1'1'1<-'1'1' ('(lfftpllcate (.')stOIIi rec')I'd thei.I' \f,':;'.lue. but .'3.5 del'flon'::;i;I'ated i'l\ F'a.l'k'.:'I' (1':Q9), 2.nalyses and th,:;:i.1 e;<:t"':nt '1 imi t alol"t2 i'endel'S them .::.. pI'ima.l" of Info1'fft':;'.ti>:q" il!h1lt: e>::pc>l'ts and annual i.mpol"ts fila), not ,:ol"i'ec,;pond pel'fE'C J.;>,., thel'e should <.I.t least be a hil;:lh decj'!'ee correlation be"\ thern, That sw:h does in jB .:t occU\' is illU'3tl'.'.1.t"..:-d 111 Ta.ble 1 fl'om HI:lllIJ 2,8 Hong Kong's Customs record chosen the oivotal set because (i) lt is the of \'&.w;.'-/ory, (iL' its l'el':ol'd, st':l.l'tinl;) in is one of the ]()ngest ,::.vcjl;;:tble, (hi:< dl .. ,lties (In both i.rnpod;:; 2\\1"; e;q:'Oi'ts in,:om2 t .::t::< a 1'(:; "I.'?l.=:..ti'v::?ly sinall, posi.n'::J little incentive to conceal either volume 01' value, (iy) until the C0Mmencement of CITF.:; theft? I""el' e no 1::':";j<:1.1 1,,=,:;tr"Lcti.un:-j on 'Gl'adil"tld IV.)!";! than wi th Crdn:.'1 .see F'al'ker' 1979) and, (v) ;:,hi.pments out (If {-:fr'lCc\ .::tnd EU1")pe of l!..'hich I h.=\ve pei'son.::,.1 apper.H' 1.:Oi'1'8Ct.J.y f:lljth in '.'olI..Jme 3.nd ,/;;:1.11..1", in the Hong Kong statistics, Table 'IA pI'esents ths> value of Hong Kan l ;)"::; \'Jol"ked ivopy e::'::pOl'ts ;;0 Fr'<:i.nce d.nd FI'-eO\!lce I 5 valtJ\?s (If \,!.I()\'kpd i \iOi"{ imp(ll't.::,d f rom Hong I::? \' y >: lO':ie COl' I' espc.ndenl : e behieen theri) (I' := (), 9:::1'::.1), T!-II? ift'lPOi't V.:tlU2S ::p')I't vc:.1ues Cl.:;,:n 15 expected as Cust(lms records of exports are fob (free on board) and imports are elf (costs, + insurance and freight), FOR FIG, 2 ,10 Table 18 presents the values of GJng's worked Ivory exports to w,,,,:;t Gel'lYlany ;3.nd West Gel'rl).':'!.ny':;'i;s f 1"011'1 \-Iong Konl.:;J 1:":'!J;I!i,:::en 196? cl.nd 1':::q7, The t\>.'I) data sets are plotted .::tl,;;i.;:..inst one Etnothel' in F)I;) 2 and., cOL:", the previous illustration. correlate closely (I' = 0,994), As expected, the l.mpol't v2.hAes ai'e higher th.:=in the valut::s., thOLJgh at 2RX, r li.,;]ht::\" .. they :=ire slightly more than I would expect f1'om the difference between fob E:>.nd cit" l'2ve 1 s F I] H F I \J,


. L 1 ,-, c 2, '! 1 T",d:.J.e! C Hon'] 1:::,.mIJ/Japa.n e::-::port Impoi't v::d.w::'s 1")' !,;Ior'ked .i vor"( tl'ade:d bet',\'t::!t.::1l therll '1970 .:::\11d 197i::i, The hit) dat. ':Iets ;:'.\'8 plotted against one dnothel' in Fig, 3, yet again show good (orrelation (r = 0,95) and, as expected from the comparisoll of fob/eif statistics, the are c, '12':\" hi,]h2i', 'Jood ,:.orl'eJ.;;:\tions bt.'!t"'Jeen the thl'ee SI.?ts to in 2,9, 2,10 and 2,11 show the valup of romparative Customs records and are grounds for confidence tn Hong Kong's A c E I) R F I 81 2,12 Table 10 presents East stated ivory exports to Hong Kong -in boU', volume and v<,due --wi th !-Iong K011';:J' 5 ':Ofl'espondi 1"11;] l'e.:eipts between 1'.3.52 i:.\.lld !::;!7.S. The thr-ee E2tsi; Afr"ic;:;\rl COI.,ll1trlE.'s <11"2 .:nmbined becau:::ie [IIOSt of Ug.:mda's and some elf 1 VOl";' \!J.":!.5 e::::por-,ed to or thr'!)u,;:!h !"lomba:3.'i., i:.!=":Jrts. The differences :In volume a\'e not subject tQ fob/eif inf1L4en.:es and e;.::poI'1;S '::;hoLlld have \lJ_r'tual!.'!, the sar,'I':! as imports i i.-IOI'Y does t.3kE' ,-.p IYloi.stUI'(? f\'UrfI 0\' lose it to thE' atmosphere, blJlt t.his m.::..y SOflle ,:han';ll':.'s in tL'sk t1-l'.2::;e be The A'f r-iC:'.nll-\on'J Lon';;} Custctlns do:d;a suggest that ivory were under-declared in both value and volume by >130'% and 46% l'espectlv,?ly 1'.3.':.2 and 197.S, The ::;U'.=J']2sti.on 1.5 confirmed by trade sour-ces that this was indeed the case. Under-declaration conce;;t1.ed both 1.1'lel:Jei.l IV:,\,Y .. f.:::1cilita.ted the of lncome tl' .... m

I. Zari'!b i i'.I. 's e)"hich were used to calculate the values shown in subsequent ;:,lS Tc..ble:3 pl' eSE;l1i;s such,::llaneolJ'::; Arl'ican (USb:JlflS and E::::mly, but del'ived V.)11.HYI2S fOi' +.hefft by divldio.] th,:,; E:oi;sw.'3.n-:::.. va.lue'::; by th,: d.vel''::'.';]:' E<.nnual p1"iee .:.f IVOI'y (Table 2.':,) .s.nd the ::;(Jt.lth Afl'ici:: valu\O!s by dIviding by the average price glven for South ivory arriving in Hong Kong for each year, The sepa\'ate treatments seemed appror\'iate as the Botswana is Jist\'ibut0d widely, with little being expo\'ted to Hong i : ::on.]., Hong Von';j takes a '::'l.lbstantic:d am,)unt OT i. vor'y of tOffl Africa which is likely to give a direct pointer to U,e ctverage value of all its i \101"1, 2,16 Table l/. presents the Cote d'Iv,)il'e's ivory iIt1PCI)'t.:: I.JP to l':i86, In tha.t they' give not only volwoe d.nd v"due, out tusks dOIJ.'l1 into Slze classes, they a\'e among the best of all Cust()ms & Excise records for raw ivory, Pa\'ke\' (1979) pointed out that. du\'ing the 19705 the d'Ivoil'e ha.d developed into '::;.n IV('\'\/ conSLlfilel', takinl,;J in far ft'lor'e r'21W iVC'i'Y than it e;.::p'.)l' ted .::tIld SUpp01' t i. nq an i V 'JI"y' fflc.U'lI)f .::\.: b) I' i nl;} i. nd!.,s tl" i IJi' consequence, This growth has been so consolidated during the 1980s that I now rank thiS country the major \,aw Ivory consumers, 2,17 Table 5 pl"esents Chim'.'s pl'ovided by WTt1U, but tOl..lnd in Professo\' David Pearce, l'aw ivory ililpor' ts, These dCl. ta \'" t1'211:le clf con'3equence, The evidence no,,' i:,v2d lablt? in the COLmtl'},' s CustorflS record indicate's a 1"1Se in In '19:::;.':;, 19:::'7, This tallies with trade information that Taiwan is a growing ent\'epot which owes its position to not being a CITES Ps\'ty and its consequent ability to take advantage of the difficulties the C onvention imposes on other ivory il't'lpOl'ters, :::, 1 ';} Ti:;.bJ I? 7 pl'e'3ents DLlbai.' 5 Customs I'ecord of 1'.1J! J VOl")" irt"'ports, They al'tO? so ':'.t clI:icls th til,:;: that some:' hundl"E ,ds of "tonne';:; \I);?I'E! fl'()m Bw'undi to DLlb,:;u betwE. 'en and 19(::7 th2\t I ci)nsi.del' them useless, Tlle\'e may be a technIcal reason tOI' the absence of evidence (e,g, it is possible that the ivory may be held in bond fol' onwa\'d not .:onsti t l)t' 2 -9. 'den!..Iine impol't to the count!":!), but. thi.s remains to be established,


2 20 Table 8 gives Hong Kong's imports of raw Ivory, They are str0ight-:2,2'1 Table 9 ';.)i ves the Indian Custom'::, \ I"ecol"d, pCol nts emel"Je, Tr,e I nd n CtAS toms I' i. 'S unU'5Ucl] in th.::\ tit dQes no teo i. ne i de 1 th th.f.'! calendi:H' }'t2C1.r, but I'uns fl'orn 1'13.y t,) the Api'il, rhne months thus. in the ini.t.:i'lldc\I' yea. I' .::o.nd in its successor, \hth monthly statistics the Indian data CQuid be converted to calendar years and become dii';ctly to othel' CW5toms dd.hl sets, Ho' ... fOl' thls report, the data are considered as relative to the jnitiating ccd.endi7.\" Y?;':I)'; i,.'2, the Indi.i.'!.n 1st 1'379 to AP1'il 1'3::::0 is to as the Indian I"ecol'd 'tor 1979, 1 feel that the :;lJ.ght .. inQ of data. WhICh l'estAIts is of little si'Jniflcc . n," ( to the analyses t',',.",,j.:::, 2,22 Ja.pan's impol'ts in TBbh.! 10, They eont< tl'''le S21fte anol\'tcdy rf.*ported i.n F''::ll'kel' (1'379), C '::itoms claiti, to only 0). ::;rflf.dl fraction of v,hat Hon9 Kon';i Ct'!"stOIl'lS is sent there, Thel'e i.s Cl.n explanation: the Japanese Customs gi.v' the rountry of the ivory's origin in Afl'ico., il'l'espective of whethE:l' the ,mmodJ.ty was b(}l).'dt-t frori, a If,iddlE=ri,Ct.n in Hon'J f':.on'J, EI..,II'Or-":?,o or' . "'I'e. COll ;equently i;r,e d .. ?;, kit balcl\lce",,'et::?n Japan/Ijoll,,;! Kong and JB.f)an/E'.,lI'Opean (,:' 1l1tr'ies is baJanced by J'o'\pa.n/Afl'ican ilyq:::II::I\'hi, F.:e''''.sons fOI' this ,:onsistent pl'actl.o.:e yet t . ) be ',;!iven by Japanese aL!thol'lties, but may l'eflec the need to put a bettel' facto' on trade imbalances between Japdn and Af" tea oenerally, :2,2::': T.:::\blt'.: 1'1 pr-esents t1C:'.C8.U'S l' Ii,' i'A,rv impoI'ts, (45 a. F'ortu';lUE'se dependerK,/, t1ac,::..u s\>ol41d (Onfltl'F(IE.'d -:,) CiTE:::; r'ull.':!s sin.:,? 19::::1 ... 'hen F'ortLIt:::lal 2l.cceded to the Convention, H. t;Jevp.l", it di.dn'!; lSI;::7 .:md .5 2'. qui,?t b.:E\,:k\>}';: . tel' ,:1.ose to Hon.;! Kon';j .::I"j Chlna -both ivol'''}, conSUO'I'.?I'S i.t became a. <:'.tE'ppin';J stone for-110n--F'al'ty iV'-!l'Y int.o t.heir cori,ff,ep':e, This is d.ppal"ent in thE: sLIl"Je of imports Hi the fil.d-J.-:tte i::t.S adh,':'l'ence to the Convention InhIbited imports in the ivory buying countl'ies --HOll';! i:::O:>Il'] and Japeon, Tl'a.del's h.::tve s i;;J.te(:i that 11 the consignments which arrived in Macau were ex-Dubi::t.l, and that declarations of other origin such as Uganda and Thailand were false. 2,24 Table 12 gives Singapore's raw imports 1979-1987. They contain a complicc . tie'n, fl'Gil '1''::1:::] j.'lOi",/;o .'\ common (c!.te'Joi'Y )'S09) th. ::tt also includes e,thel' anima.1 pi'oduct:: e ,9, 5!-\\;:o11. .::Hlt l.ei'::;, t",OI'Il"S .9.nd hC'OV'.".:''::i, Fol' purposes of thLs l'epoi't i'dl cOflHf,odi tiE'S .: l<:ls'";i f ied undfti' 1 n :::;j CI l'ecOl'ci, 1!klich ')l'i'dilld.te 111 P,fl'ico:'! 01' th,;? Untb:.'d AI'ao Ennr',::d;es d.nd cl v,:dI.Je ><,tlY310!ko;l, have been arbitrarily to raw ivory, 2,25 A fUl'ther problem concerning the values of Sinyapor! ivory was first (ommented on in Parker (1979) with to that in Hong Kong. Tl-'I'::'y' h"2r,.:! il1op,ji.n;:.tI?ly hl';;!h, Si'Hfl'.'? i.s i.n ::;in,]apore's own C'-6tOfl'l:'; r'ecol"d, HOlflevel', IYlovinq the. ,:::e>::HJ'I.::d point one d;.'.::':!1i: to the left produ':es c.\ wlrcdJy o:o::mvin>::in9 i'.,iory' V2\lU'.2, 1'(=.' 1 C>.t i v:::' to 'those pr'E:v<.dli.n'J el<3t:owher'E.', It SeE:flIS unlikely that ':In)" \Jl':.'nu:i.nely fal' value for' L'iOl'y l.IIould r'E:spond in tl--,e '1..';'3./ t,) ;,iillple tr'e.;:I.tIY,ent B.nd, 1n the l'ecor',j I made thi.f..; .:.:'.djuS .... lfif-nt t\nd <'ls:;',Llmed thc'.t :3 i n'::Jd.p.)re (s rn i ':Sf) 1 c'.I:'.=::d dec i. rn.,d po i nt is a 0:: 1 E: r io:: l ,)!" C t' iT 01'


II .. 21 ::;::,26 ::;1\'19a.po1'e ':'.150 "f'ef ts ']I")INth ,'7.'S CJ.TE:3 )'u10:.;-;; toJ. t tnto th'2 !-ion'] I?d, :'::;i.n>;}-:OIpor'2 ':"!'::'.sed be i ng stag i n9 pos t \,,'I"ten 1 t ::iC C E:'ded to C I 1 il .\ 2,27 Table 13 presents Thailand's ivory iM00rts for 1978 1986; a pattern of generally less than 5 tonnes annually, Table 14 shews jvory imports into th'2 USA, They, too, va.l'y fl'om ye':.l' to yeo).\" but weI'!? .:d'.vays J.'2':5:; thcJ.11 1 \) tonnes, 2,2::: Ti:,bles E" 11;" 17, 'Ii::, 19,20 ;:..nd 2'1 pl'E'Sent, 1'",W ilt)ports rOl' l'j79-::::7 l'espe.:tl\".ely fo)' 81' I Fr2'l-I'_'2, {::wi.tzel'land .:,nd t.,1est l3el'filany, All hC:'.ve the5arne pl'oblem ::; in that i VO)')I liias lumped ',dth tOi'toise 'shell, antl'2rs, hOl'n':;;, hooves Dnd sim).l;H' ':i.nilhc1.1 Pl'OdtKt:'l in CuStC)fW:; Ci:<,te90r''/ 0509, The dctta !.llere in the, 5?-.[lle manner: e::::--Afl'lC-:, vidued ctt ;:$U::::10/k>] r.!l'biti"al'ily considered raw jvorv, 2,29 The annual sum of assumed European ivory imports from AfricQ in T.::!.bJ.e':; lS 2'1 IS pi'eseni:ed in Tz\bl.e :-:::-::, The impo}'!; ,.S el'I'2:,tic, bui; ';jeller'cdly do:O!,1,'I:W:;..\'d, r'elc.tive i.o the situ.:'ition l,!!hlCh prevC).ileci in the '1970'S (F'ad::el' 1979), Tins lS the:, outcome of .3.dhel'in';j hI l' d.nd the general decline of European ivory uses, bet\l,'een 197::: and 1'':1:37 fl'OfI) 1.1.-21 (whel'e 197::: fr'om tl-Ie Wn1U collection It e;.::-Gl'D.o:t,,;,,j from F':opded is of 1.\'OI'Y fllovin.] betweE.'n the consumin'd ,,,:ol.mtl'll?S .)ub-;idE tlfr'icd. (i,e, some could have been drawn from stockpIles ard ivory could h.: . "''''' been irnpol'ted sevel'.=d titnes by di'ffel'ent COl...ttltl'les .in the :;arfI2 ye.::!\' and been double OJ' even tl'eble cOLlnt,ed), the SLlif. is n.ot '='. fili.nirflum estimate of ivory production, Nevertheless, it !s an indicato\' of turnover and v i>]OLI\' 2,::::1'2 :2f.l pl'esents an eST,lIn,;,\te of a. fi'llnimUffl .::mnuai pl'oduction of ivoi'Y '2nt''.!I' the f1lal'/-::ets in l,l}hich r j, ende'lVOLH'eo:i to 21imi.nate This i.s the SLtm of imports to Cote cl'Ivoire i':ii-,,j .:::dl outsid,;:; Afr .c.:;'., 1es3 .::1.11. i.IYtP')I'ts 'frorfl 2lilion'Js"t tnernselves, Cel'ti.-j.i.n other adjustments were made to produce the sum in Table 24, details of which are given in subsections of the table itself, 2,:32 T;=.,ble 2.5 pr'esents e'5tifllates of .ctnru..Aal raw lvor'y values for the 1 '378 -1 ':Y::7 They del'ivt':, f'!'ofli the l'ecords of (',nly thl'e','? cUntl'l,,;?7.i Hon';l !

I I. L .,).:. ,.;.. ," the fllClny ',;Jrades of iV01"(, the ql..)allty var'iatiI)n f1'Ofli l'E:";J:ion t() l'e',?iml f=)fl"lccJ.} th(: pC"lli.tic3.1 dnd econof(lic +,hctC i:n3E'.p f)i1 additional to the' bfASi,: differE'nC1?5 bet!.,'t?t'm tusks, it is felt" for' the of ill thi .. -5 tll'c! IJI"oc",:dul'e is .9.dequa te ::, Fll;:ll.ll'2 C. Pl'OVl des bl'oader ove1'V ie',!' of 1 \.'OI'Y j:!I' ice trends, uncoI'r'ected fo)' inflcd;ioll., by a.v81' vc:dl..Jes 1'3S::-19T7 rrorcl the !-ion,;.) Kong Custor!'ls recol'd (F'::I\'l:'e1' 1'37') Table ;::IC,), 197:::-19::::7 fl'OIt'1 TCl.ble 25 (this i'eport) and frolll !;', t1d.rtili (per's ':ommj, {2jn t?>::ponentLal regression has been fItted to these d;ta; price/kg = a,OOSeD 1 15t where t = o i.n 1';;100 ::'.nd :::':;3 = 190:=;, Th'2 i.fllpJ')I'tdnt 1)';n'a.fcll:?tel' f1'um this lS thE:' i nde)< C'. 1 1!'.; whid"t indica.tes cl l'ate ,)Y j nc I't:ase l n the vahle of r'aw ivory around 12% annually, The regr'essi0n CUl've suggests that this rate of inel'GelSe is more l'epr-esentC:ltive of the situat:.on 1'.07:3'-19(;8 than of that bec\'I.?en 1'3.52-1'37:2, However, a.s the'pose of this <:.1n.:..J.ysis 1.S 0111'/ to ill.I...lStl'.?-Gt? -the wOl'th of Ct..lStOillS stahstics, I sho.lI not 8::(arllination f I...ll' the\' F' A c [ F o n r-2,35 To this section, the (ustoms data as they are her'e provide an of ivory 'rade trends In both volume and value that :i':5 in keeping field e;.::pel'i \(:e in Afrlca. ;:..n.-I in conformU;/ 1,'.'l.U thE' p)'eViOt...l5 des.: l'iptElll of the i VOl' trade in F.;;. 1"U" I" \..,Ii th a fllore timE', 2. more cOlllph?te '521; of c;1.nd the tiff,'.:? ('J 0)' ched:: source authorities. the pictUre could undoubtedly be improved ia 11 y,


u u u :3. C:ITES DATA 3,1 All Parties to CITES are required to annual reports at the end of each C 0.'. 1 end"u' ye';:".i' tc, the Con\/.::mtion':; d,-),.:I.JI'i'".?nti.i'I'J l;1'<;\d2 in the preceding twelve months in animals and plant5 (and recognisable therE'of) li.f;;ted on the Convention";; dppencEces, fh:? pI..Al'!:u:. .. i. to l?na.ble such trade to be monitored better than had hitherto teen possible through the Customs statistics, :;:,2 HecoY'ds .:on:ernin',;j iVOl'Y al't=! passed on to lHMU fOl' store ... ;)e c'.nd analY51':;, This bQdy '].' rIle P!'lll't-outs of ".11 iV'Jl'Y tr'arlsci .::tiuns l"eC,wdE:d in the annual reports, Certain drawbacks to the CITES dat9 collection were immediately apparent, are: (i) The extent of the CITES data Ie limited by of cmmtl'ies that E:\Ccede to th._ Cnnvelltioll, (45 'y'et, '1lt:'.rlY hav .:: not done this -in Africa Angola, Gabon, and Cote d'Ivoire are impol'tani ; "i,V':'I'Y" fOl' e;<:arnp).I'::, 'I.hi.:h al'\? not Parttes, in e;.::tent, therefol'e, CrTES d;::,ta c.:,me. f l'(.[t'l a smaller data base Customs records, (it) In 1979 few ivory pr'odtKin';1 01' consuming wei'>:? activt'?ly the Convention's rules. Ttle number grew orogressivaly thereaf tel", but a.nrHJ.:::d l'epol'ts can n(.t have cO'.iert':d the p'::\' iod 1979-1987 comprehensively, (lit) The CITES records are deficient in incications of value, an parameter for trade studies, (IV) Despite thejr responslbility to submit annual reports, many Pal'ties have donp 5Q, Of those that have, are submitted late: indeed some are not to hand two years afte!' they were due, severel.y compl'OIi' theil' fl'tOrd.tol'lll'] PUl'f.:u:,se, (v) Further complications arise when an exporter's (e,g, tl"H'O' nl.Jmbel' or tusk':; witn,;:' 1.!J'2i, ]ht':;} is .:i'.a.l"p:]ed by the i.mpo\'i;t::r into wel,;)ht without. number of tusk-;.; COlflpal'ing e::-::por-ts against imports is theraby rendered dlffi(ult, if not impossible. (vi) In annual i'epol''ts ivory is not cl.assified cons]stently, :::;c.rt'n=; is l'epol'ted by '.I.',.::i.;ht a10n:;::', E1 nurnbel's Qi' \v:l til no weights are presented,_Terminology varies without explanation. FOl' e::.::a.I'Ilp1e "plece..:;" o:l>2<:"i'ly whole tI..Asks on somt;: but more generally refers to ivory that has been more than simply cut, as well as including that is waste, Consequently raw ivory is mixed wi&h rut pieces, waste and even worked ivory, This makes compilation Into appropriate categori8s difficult, dependent on the Interpreter's intultion and Llni' i.f c' ttempt,:.::d by not wholly .:onvei'sa,nt IAlith tr'I':: ivory t.l'2>.de,


, ,-(vii) In \ sirni12\1' confl...l',;:lno;J vein, 1'3'1,1 ivory is cla.ssifled into sew21'<;,l cclte';:)ol'il2S -e, ';J, "comrflel'c ial", "pel's(:onal" 01" "hIJlntt?','s" (trophies) anrl dlffel'ent countries clearly apely different criteria when doi nl;) so, (viii) And as I,.' Customs st.:'\tl.stics, the entrie':; owe vulne't"'Ed:ile to human particulal'ly if they are in boredOM 01' the belief that there is llttle likelihood of them ever being looked d.t, 3,3 Certain arbitrary steps were taken to the WTMU data lists, The only CL:lSsificB.ti.ons a.:cepted c\s l'e,.W ivor'y we!'e lib] tusks" a.nd "'tu'sks", The digits :l.ccompan'l'in';j the fOI'mel' indicated weIght ('Jsu.::dly i)-I SOIi'IE.'times in qr'a.fI'ls, slJrnetJ.mes 1n pOLtnds -but all '.l}el',= to kl,:;J fOi' this report) of ivory only, Dig.ts accompanyIng the latter Indicated a number of tL4'5ks, ::::,4 l.,lith the e::(ception ot 197',3 when some lAsed almost no othel' inl ti('n but I! lvorv plef:es" and in whIch yeF.\i' it >::hvio:J'51.y CO',/121"2.:1 ;).1.1 tusks, this classifIcation was excluded from calculatjng raw ivory amounts as i.t <:leal'I'1 in,:luded w2'.ste, ::;imll':',.i"ly "". "p.;;;'.ii'S" etc, \','e1'12 taken as and not raw ivory, This arbitrary process will hRve E'::<,.:lwJed some l'a\l.' iV'':'I'Y but, .]iven the l.clI:k of consi.sterlt:y discipline in the reco!'ds, there is no way the pr0blem can be rectified, .::, S (:)11 0: 1.':\s'5i f ic2t.tions SLK:h :;',''' ':0fl1f1"11?I'C 121.1" pel'sonal Oi' (trophies) have been lumped, Further all numbers of tusks have been converted to kg weight by multiplying by flve, This is based on U,e average weight of a sample of 221,661 tusks weIghing 1,138,396,2 kg and averaging 5,1 kg (deriv8d from the ivory permits discussed In the section), ':::,, The ?Hrican CITE::; in T,=;tbl.e :2C which '3hows wh.::I.t each Party 1'::ported '[1'01'11 the. ye.9-\' it <:t.c..::edt?d tt) Convention, It 1'3 c\ sparse I'ecOl'd, the rllctny blanks ",I,pe Ct':;' rfiLICh if not D'I':'l'e thf' (Iutcome of fatlure to slJbmit a.nnud.l c.h.,\n reflectIon's of no tl'adt?, T<:\b11: 27 qives the intl'cl.'-Afr'lC-l\ I'Z,W ivor-y T.r'c1.dE! "".s appar'ent fl'om African CITES data, Again it is a thin record, ::j, f: TablE': 2::j prt:::'sents !,:,lhat (-H \' iCcln Pcll'ti.e:' tel say they e>::ported outside the continent from the 0, their acceSSIons, 3,9 Table 29 presents what CITES 8S outside Africa said that they had l'e.:eiv,:.?d fi'Ofll IHr'ici). in the <:5 a rile pel"i..:,j ':0\/81'(?d by 2:3, The between the two tables is striking, Parties reported exporting 611 tonnes between 1979 and 1987; Parties outside the continent reported recE'ivi'l'ig I,Ll.S7 tonnes fl'OfII ,21'fi'ic'='.11 F'c'.r' ties In ado::htion to the tha.t CIT[::; st<:l.ted ':ha.t they hc.<.d l"ecl::,i\oed from Parties to the Convention, they also an additional 1,305 tonnE.':; f \":Olt'! \' iO::,3.n countl'L?s \,l,lhio.:h h I' not OK':12Ck.,d :;>:1 the COllv'.'2nt .Lon,


h I The SL.UYI of I".:ce'lpts fl'l)m 14ftl.:;:, ChKUI)'12ITb::\d In 29 .,=,. minimum estimate of the continent's taw lVOty production. ::::,11 In thE'O!'Y, e:'::por't<"; ;.md ilr:pol'ts between CITE:; bl2 ""qued., Individual consil;jnrclt=:!nts sf'lould be rt2::;,.dily I'e:ogn).scl.ble in both e::::! HlipOl'tersl I'\;'>:.))'ds, f-is the P!';: . cti.ce !'Iv:;.y diff'21' f!'om theor'y, Softie i.v.)r";.' Iiav ciepa.I't the in one tCI .:wrive in thl? impl)l'ter in ?5k<.;;wl)1',:;] )'eS'J .1;<=j .::1t least as high a propo!'tion I)f export tally with those in the impo)'b:::.\s I \'t?cc'\'ds 1'3 the :O:lse i.n I'.'?cords, Th,?re 1<:;, .. no cC>I'I'el.ation the CIT[::; Ste.t'2lf1ent.s Of it had exported and what the importing countries saId tney had Imported from Afrlca, \ :::::,12 The t..JTt-1U lJ.t.S were ,,,,;.r'ly entr ies f tom the l"';!COI'ds of a. of nine At' I' lCB.r\ F'2-,)'ties i. n two cClte.]odes: those the Afri':<".n P;:u'ty ottlel' Parties Eald th"'.t they h.:;;,j received from F'ari:'l, f.l tnird .:Ji.veOj the nUllbel' of entries in the first two which tally, :'::.1:3 Ta.hle::31 undertakes the e::<,::.1'': ise fOI' sc''1en EI,n'op::; COI .Illtl'l.':?S BelgiUM, Britain. France, Italy, SpaIn, Switzerland and West Germany. Table 32 does so fo\' three Asicin Parties and the usn. :;:!, The pict\.,Ii'e or the i.V01"y' tl'ade f.!}hich el;'lel";)e5 fl'om Un'? CITE::; 9.nnual l'E':POi'ts is one of no ,:ol'l'olcttion bE,tw:2.?n 2;.::p .')!"ts .}.nd irnpol't'3, with no evidence whatsoever on p!'ice trends and WhLCh appears, overall, to be c.! VI'<';.>::tion o'f the tl'.,:\de i'!'2vealed by the Customs si:.3.tist:i.:s,


'll. k A THE QUOTA & PERMIT SYSTEM 4,1 At the FAD Working Party Meeting on Wildlife Management and National Parks held in Arusha. Tanzania. in September 1983, from 24 (ot.lllt}'ies deba.ted contl'ol of t.he ivo}'y tl'adf:, It \;.121:5 cl';lreed thClt a.ll i.voI'y produci.n.] n<'I."\;101 hol..tld esta.blisr IVOP,:/ quota:::;, nle concept \.I'as straightfc!i'!,!.If.t.r',j: each I,t,louJd ljmit the EI.rt"l'xmt 0[ J.VI)}'V tha.t i.t e::::por'ted ;;..nnLJ<:tll y 4,2 The ide,::;.. was taken at the CITE!:; CorMilittee 1'1eetlng in Brussels. June 1984. and a resolution recommending its adoption was passed, A consl.,11 tancy by R, Maptin of 2ili!babl,t,l'2 developed the idE'a furthel' and ul.tiflld.tely the Fourth C>:tnf'!?I'ence of the F'a.d; to i'esolved tha.t African ivory ppoducing should implement a quota system. All of them would limit the number of tusks they exported annually and notify all other Pal'ties to the Convention of these nurnbel's Wel'!?, ihe co}'c!llary 11.''::'5 b)l ;;.]1 im):JJ:'l'ti i"I'] thc . t they <'>"Quld not dll.o',l.' "tmpo}'t.::;; from an ivory producer that exceeded the not.ifled limit, 4,3 It was upon each ivory producing country to set i.ts DW1I limtt3, Thepe was no consensus on what overall volume should enter trade annually. Consequently thel'e has been 1"l'.J '::itl'i.::tuI'8 on d. nation n"i"l'.:Jht contribute to the ivo}'y marKet, No IVOpy rl'oducing nation has had to l'estl'D.l.n its ivo}''! e:-::ool'ts in f;:lVOI.AI' of .:;,.n int;.?\':l'::ttloilZi l lifliit, Ee+.>:11 men,:::ly put fo\'wa.r-d whctt It belleves will becoffle avcnlE,bJ.e in the corilin,;) year, There were hopes in 50me quarters that these amounts be 'sustainable yields', but the system bound no party to any such limit, 1).,4 !,o..lrnle the ql..!ota system I"llay hi-lve been conceIved 1n sensu stl'icto, 1n pr'a.cti.ce and f}'Ofll the outset it h,:;:.,s been.;:<. term a.pplied in sensu lato, Instea.d of rei:t.l CP..Aot2.lS there hEt::; been d. i1otlficc . tlon syst.:'::"ln i.n which each producer nation has told the CITES Secretaplat what it or hored to '2>::POl't in the COf!lin.] yea\', With producer nations eXQopting to many consumers, it would be difficult for individual importers to know whether prospective consignments were within or beyond the ppoducer's limit for the year, The simplest way to hF.lve l'esoJ.\/ed this would have been tOl' tile lfllpo}'ting .:::,xmtl"/ t.o helve ched::ed ectch c ,) nsi'.::F1filent wi th the e::::! data C').ppe. i.n ::::::::


II .1 'w 25 4 7 E::{O:;JfI.ln.:i.tH!Il of uf pel'!))l.>:;S in L;.3.Usa.lllie a.ncl those cont2..irnnl;j t.he CITE!:; data for-'19/.:::6 , 1'3t:7 pr-()ve trlCI.t Cil1 iVOI"/ expor-ted from Afrlcan Parties to CITES did not come to the t)f th,? ivol'Y officer' In thE' Thi.:; w""s pa.l'ti.l:u1."ll'ly the ':0:'.512 l.dth spor'tsrllE.'n's tr'ophie!<;;. (corlfil'med by LW

I I '" .oJ COMMFNT ON CUSTOMS AND CITES' .5.1 ThE,\'t.:: <:\\'e fe\!i fOl' either '5ecl;m' of the ivory tl'ade l'i)l.;)rchant 0\' offici,<: . l -1;0 OVel'ta.te vol.u!nes of (11' t"lo<;-,t 'stimuli to "fuel';)e the books" ;::'.l'e in the opposite dll"2ction: tCl hide. 01' volLJI'I':es OJ' va.Iue':; 01' both, On the:;:;l.;;' qr'oLlllds, i.n trH?,ence of evidEnce to the contl'a!'y, I 2.ccept the highest f i.,;:lLll'es in ei thE'\" i.I't'tpo\'i;'-5 or e>::pod;s d.S y to be:-the .: loses t t.,:, the ti'l)th, .:.,2 ThE' African Cl6tofils facts on the I" a .... ivry trade 1!'lade ctv"dlabJe to thi::; study a\'e spar'5e ;: . nd incol'ilplete, Indeed d<:1.ta. fo\' tn,,:1.Il t\'JO consecutlve yeclr5 1979 1::;;::7 are only ava.llable 1'01' si::< (:ountr'ie'-5: Botsl,o,'c\.nc,., !:: la.\I,', These fact.ors affol'd only m:i Id -GO hide inc()f!\e, The ot-hel' tl,!,IO -:::;udal1 --al'e sornelJ,'h"l,t dif f erel1t, 5,5 Though having one of Africa's most successful economies, Kenya does have e::(Chc\ll,;]e .:ontl'ol. l'equla.tions and hi .Jh income t'::l::(>?S, In 'Ie i n i Ilt,lstl'ated In Tabl e 1; the lOl'l,;)standi. ng (.I'en,j of I ell' 1 nq both vCIl.ume 2>.nd va.h.!e is ;:),';pin d.ppiOll'ent in the diffel'en.:t? KenY3.'s 8.Lltho\'ities say e::<:poI'tr",,j, and l!iha.t othel'5 say must ha.v'2 beEm e::q.:JoptE,d, The is 1::;':::% of fOl'mer -3nd ill ket::pin.,:} \lnth the t\'ends illustrated in Table and Fig 1, Given this long-tel'm a cC!l"\"ect:i.on f.:: . ':\;O!' be. to cOI'r'ee(; CLIStOfl'tS rt2(ord I S,b The <,:;I,.,lda.n has a .... and eCOnOfi\Y., sevel'E: ,;:::::

, i e 'I smLI(;JgIl':.'d iV(Ir'Y acrO"';5 t :into AI'a.bit:>. to ;::l.void ::;udanes\? dues c.lnd 1'?stl'll:tion':5, :::;I.AdE.nese Customs c.r8 too d.nd er'r' t i>:: to pel' f!i it>: cd. >: tA 1 a. t ion (j f a 111'1'12': t ion f ::tC toP a.S i.:3 !,>) i th Kt;:nya, .5.7 The ::;ud2'.l1 has pl'odLJl:ed VE.'l'Y Ii-/:' Ie national CITE:::;; (O,;tX, of the n<:,.1;10n<':l1 Customs figLrt'e), CITE:::; date fl'om ott"lel' Parties who ha.vl2 recf..'lVt.'!d imports fl'om the Sudan indicate even lal'gep volumes than the sum of other Customs l'epOl'ts, The re,=:tson 1'01' thIS is pl'tncJ.p<,.!.ll the CITE:3 Parties accredited ivol'Y coming out o f Saudi Arabia as frolo the Sudan. Th2 miniml.Am knO\vn volume of ivol'y t.:.) c)me fr'o!'ll Ar'.9.Dla i.s th<;'.t documented in the Yang Kong Customs record (Table B) and Included in Table ::::tt i.n pCl.I'>?ntheses c.!ftel' thf: CL!<:;tort'IS" I:01UfI'tll, Add thl<3 t>:J "Oth,.::'l"' CUS-T;Ort'ls and the Ct.IStO[ll:. total fOl' th(? ::':.I..,.',j:;.n 1:T7-:::J 'l3a7 is 96% G,f "Otl",Gl'S CITES" tot.:.d., H'lt'? t\!"o sets SUPP')I'tinl ;] one 'ye2d'S in ",)hierl both .;:..nd eustoms .Ja.tB. en'e .::,v<':I.ila.ble COft'lp.:;\l'J.son, Table :34 shows th';:'.t Customs totals 1,t}12r'e ']I'eO:I.ter' ll'l foul' of countries: Botswana, Kenya. Malawi and Africa, CITES data greater for Cote d'Ivoire and the Sudan, the for tho,? WETe 5,9 With the Cote d'lvolrl':.', which is not a Party to the Convention, there e\l'>;"! no n.c\tionzd. CITES oa.i;d., Those p.:;.l'ti'::" ::i \!"tnch \-! l'2ce'iv,:: d iV01"! fl'om thi s c 1')' l'eport twiCE: fl,uch .:::,,5 the country' s C1..AS1.0fllS \ 'eco'!'d indicates was exported. Two points however. The count'!' "s impnrts (TE'.ble aI', fa.I' >;)\'eclte\' t.h::\i"\ 11;5 knol,l,'" e>::ports, avel'a>;Je anmA;;t.l i.mpo!"+. C!'-/<=.'r eilJht yed.l'S was 2::: tonil'::!s, :Hmua.l e:o::]:)ol'+'s fl'om the CITE::; data 'for nJ.nE.' 'leal'S was 0,4 '(;onn,::, 01' 1% of imports This t.h':'.t Cot,,? d I Ivoi l'e .:i I':c'nsj.der'i::lble :'-','01'/ COllSUft'121' and ftH .tst hElV,c: .", li'U"ge crafting industry; the suggestion is born out by 5ubJectlve l'eports from -coul'i':sts .:1.nd biol':II:;]ist'j (e.g, Fi:oth pel'S .:orlim), r.t thU:-i unusLl2.!. i:tmong Africa C0untl'les. 5.10 The second point is that the Cote d'Ivoire has tl'ade in artificial 1vol'Y (made in the Philippines, so I have been told, from an afllalgarfl of powdel'ed f bone's cl.nd plastic). I t i'E:, f ai' che."'pel' than ivory, ffld.ny tourists pUl',:h<:l.s:'? i.t it the ',;!'2ilU1. il>:.\ Susp'icl.ons c\,\'e of COLII'se dulled by itS', avail2t.bili.ty in Afl'1ca -the hOft'le of i\;oI'Y. Cote d'Ivoire C1..Astoms doc LW:E'ITt of ttus .:.;;:;:; lon',]e i.vo1''-I exports to Italy (1980 = 17 tonnes, 1982 = 20 -Cannes, 1983 = 28 tonnes) are, I t;rns p1'oduct. Their VE1 .i.Lle::; (r"2sp'?c:t:i.vely 0.72, O,L/.'!?l O,3C per' kg) support this contention, S,11 ::;outh data .:,::..11 for comml2nt, of 1',101''1 i.mpOI'1;::; into and e>::ports t rOfl'1 Afr' ove\' the past t ',I,tl,) ck'cacies do not ('}1'1'21E'.te. When plottc-:,.(j ''''';j2J.i.n'::;i; tirfll2 (I ':370,-197::: .;: rom i'1'::H'tJ. n 19::::Sa, 197:'3-19::::7 fr'om CITE:3 data. this: l"epol't) ifl'lDOl"t.S into :::;mJU, shm!" no :iil,;)ni .fica.nt trend (I' ::: 1),40.5), thoul;Jh they r'OS'2 '=I'ra\;i>:,)lly '1'1'01'1'1 ':i.I'Ol..Jnd t\1}O tonnes Ct. 'leal' in 1970, tC) <.:\I'olmd nine tOlllleS in i9:=:7. On the ()ther hand, uverall expol'ts (using Martin's 1985a data for 1970-1978 and Table 3 of th:is I'eport, fCI\' sho!'>"ed a !"1'3ing bet','h':>en ane! "')::M qi")'.'ii.I"II] fl'um (. to L1.:=': tonne'::; (I' --0,76E" P '" O,OO!); th.::"';; 15 f,1. t '16% .':\nnw,dly, 1-10\'11 ] Von.;] is the ]ar'gest kno\l,lll impcl\'ter of f:l'frican l'i::(\.'J IvJ")i"y >2>::port!:;;. f-I plo-ttinl;:} these ti.flle f'TI 1;ile s,:ut'le <.1pC'!.ll


I' I, (1'':)70-197:=: from Parkel' inCl'f,.'aSf.' fl'o)fI) 2 to 19 e:::: to ,::?i.'Jht tonnes annual!. Y E>.t the '2nd of th,.':' 19705 dnd in the eal'l.' F!::=:i)s (P;:'.I'ker' 1979, j'lc'.l'tin has decli.ned to a\'ound one tonne in'! 9:3:3 ({''-\F)pend i >:: I), The :5I..Jbs tan t i a 1 qLIEtnt i. t 1 >:::s e::::pOl' t 40 ) tonnes thl'o'_4>;1h the e2,1'1v 1'::.1::':0-:; must ther'efoi't? come fl"om othei' :5'G.::ttes. l"1.:;l.rtin l.n I;ppendi.>:: I l:':'?en a. (ifl'ici:.n dependency .. much of its production 1:5 included within both South Africa's Customs and CITE:::; dcd;a, Even <:;0, th8 VQiL.[!.>2 i.s seemin'.::.J1y I'f'\.Jch 1 <:'.I";)E:I' tha.n mirlht be pl'oduced by 1'4,:::\mioJ.<.\, Both pl'e':;s l'epoI'i;s (e,'d, Africa Fi,'epol't, f'.1ovt?ftiber/O'.:?cember 19B8, P"':") a.nd t\'-3.d,.:: sou\'ce',; that the l)N,(TA insurrection in Angola and the MPLA \'eoe11ion in Mozambique use ivory to purchase supplies and equipment and that such tusks are marketed through :::;ol.Jth Africa, The eyidt:'nc2 is in the: contention .. but the d8ficiencles in Africa's Customs and CITES data might mask a mo\'e innocent e::'::planati,)n, .s. 1 A. knowlecige, the CustolYiS da.t<:\ pl'OdLKe a cohe\'ent pi.:tUl'e in ke,'pin>;} with events as reported from within the trade itself. The African Pa\'ties' fe>::ceptin',;j ::;outh Afl'i;:.:, z . nd l"l::ilawi) undel'--I'epo\'t 1.0 sLich i', that their' CrT::::::; data ';:.3nnot be '..lS>E.'.j to sUPPol'i; 01' fill in the CITE:; d-3.ta" clef ie lent, S, 1 E, Ta.bles 26, 27 and }::: '5tl'es", the weakness of the Ai dean CITE; I'ecords o; . nd the point is dr'iven home ,.=:v,::.-m !'nOl'e stl'ikin>]ly by Table 29 .. in l,i,'hlCh the sum of other Pal'tJ e5' teeo!'>:)s f I'om Ql..ttside the continent available for rontrast with the Af\'ican \'ecords, Annual receipts from the Africa.n F'al'"Ues to COllvention VJel'E:' 2L[S% of the l'cHv iV'or}, t.hctt the Africdn Pai'ties reported expoi'ting. When receipts fl'om all African including those which are not Partles to the Convention are tallied, they amount to 503% of the African sum of exports. S.1I::: In the CITE::;; dc.l.ta, the discI'epcincy between what the ivory Afl'ican sa..i.d e::

.. ,'17 Hon.] f;:on.:;] l,Iid."'; the wOl'ld' s I':;'.W Ivory ift',porter' the 19605 into the 19:::0'5 hElS a lonq and deta.i led CtJS'\.Off,S r'ecor'd <: F'Cl.I'kel' 1979 and Table 8 this report>, As a British dependency, it started complying with CITES at least as early as 1977 and was dOing S0 seriously i.n Its posltton h<"t.s b,,!en pi."lota1., not only to the \.;, bl...It .:::..1'::;0 t..) the whole CITES data overview, S,l::: lJe have seen hm' i CITEr; data 11'om C1txt;side which ,]o).\le d. fa.I' bette\' pictur8 'J I'BI}} 1VI)I'y prodLlced within Afl'ica itself In t',,,, same veIn, Fif r i eEl l":!l'odt.Ked recol'ds p,'cll:h.Ktion, tha.n tho"',;.::: the Hong Kong record is the single most important source of .nformation on ivory in the whole of CITE::; in te I' na tiona] .;.:. y'S -,em, I d,:. m: th ink :i t ove I'S tao terflen t to sa.y th3. t i.f H,:.n,] t.ciers b.:;,sicc.t.ll\,' str<:il.qhtTol"lv3rc;, It WelS not.,


. I .. f-!Orl\] Kon'J :oLJl.d have ol'iqins, ?:!::i':l'ibtrl'] it.i will r'lave been btAl'eCl.LK l'aticall y convenient i 0" tll:d;h mel'chC!nt .:,..nd of f i,: ials involvt!,j, Thi.:=:; type of I ... .i.ll !=-wob. ').bJ.y h:O=!i'. It .j<:; widely .::l':cepted tha.t Z<.<.:i 1'e '5 1\'01''( leaves Af I' iCd VI.:;' 1 ts Thi s happened on i:.\ 'Jl'8.nd sca18 vi.<-'! 8Ul 'Lmdi and Gh8 OT the jVOl',), in tl'.::msit) anlj throu';jh Con,;!o and the Centl'd.! AJ1'lcan Republic (tr' <.l.nd infol'I'II.=mts), C1JE::; ha"i! thl'ot'Jn OL!t l'ecol'ds I)f lV01'Y ol'igjn.:::ltin',;) In .. fOl' e::<:a.mple, and ascribE.',j it ;:).11 Pi"l'ic?n Cll'i.I]in, fact / th,,;:, as':l'ibed orl';p.n may be lncOl'rect; seefilS of n(l 11I.:c<.ttel'. !t 1= as th')UI]h .Oo.n :.'1fl'ican ol'lgin, l'e'J<,i.j", 'If V>2I'aClty, 1'::; <:<.11 i;ha:.; the "c1evt'loped" liJorld is cnncel"nt?d with. TlpJ1..J.';lh cons>"rvd. t,i')l-,i::;t desll'e to knol,l.l l\/OI'y fl'Ofll s l'-']l,:,,:tl. dl'Oppin';j ;:;0 EU1'opeil sh .. ppil'll;] point in favoul' of (lne in Afl'ica may he towards identifYlng true or1gin: but only d. And it IS not ql'()IH",j f,."oj' rk.,ti'. :!I1al tV01'y '")l'oducbon in th,)se ':OlAntrles 5Ul'1'OLmdin(;) ive,p,;", has ce'f!'le fl'!I\, It t<.<.ke a ':;Jl'eat de;.d !ftOI'E,' th;'>.n deft p<:<.IJel'-INU1'k to::. 8st.".btish the tr'lxth. S,2S T:1bl, :37 r '2-presents the d.9.ta f l'O:Ofi l on a ()untry by C')UlTt.l'Y fOl'fI).=:tt, to,]etr'lel' th na:hon:: 1 Custort'ls ar,d CITE:::; e::::pOl'+' 5t.1t'?filents of s":::h both Hon';J Kon'.J HflP01't st.::d;emo=!nts, Addi. ti.':ma.'l. fl'Qril +'I-f/;' pel'mit vel'ificatlons in Lausanne during 19H6 and 1987 al'e dlso shown, S, :21:, A ,]larl1:e the t.:::O.bJe ShO!,l,'3 how ff?W Custom'::; f2:::e, The dB.tB. in 1'1'1051; nation'::'.l <:'.rchives and, time, can be obt.::O.ined (vide PapkeI' '1'379). 5,27 Kenya and the Sudan are the only AfrIcan countries for which there al'e Customs e:::;JUl"es a.fe lO::t;z, of the corl'esponding Hong Kong Imports cOl'relat8 closely, However, there <:ll'e no CITE::; da.ta. and the I-Ic!l'i'] I : :ample may be, Customs accurateLY document the trade while Cites does not, .5,:28 The : :;ucl'::n-Iese CLJStorllS datE'. l'eflect thE' :5"".rI\e situati.,:on descl'ibed e;:tl"liel' in thLs sectlon of the HOi'l'd VOIl>,;j' S fiqI...H'E!, the :::;'.Id"'.n's CustC'fllS l'ecol'd sholiJS 91'0S5 Ginder' even though the countpy's d<:o.ta set i.-:3 incomplete, Ttwl'E' ''''.l''E! no :::;'..Ada.n CITE:; ,j,:::O.ti:I Th,?


l: ... \ .. , :::;1 E.':'':POl't2l" s records .-both a.nd .. ell',.2 u':;218s5 1'!!e<::\SU\,':2S of i. ts raw ivory trade and the importer's have to b8 relied 5,29 GJng's CITES data show much bigger imports from the Sudan than the H,:.n,.;) 1<011';1 CI.Astor!'I':":' rt?cord (17::J%), Thj S i::: be.::aL-lse .:;..11. lmports to Hong f:::Qnl,:] il'Qrn f:lrabi.<.<. (T8.ble 2.S::: tonn'2) \'\"(:!l'e by CITE::;; to a Sudanese Qrigin, When these are added to the Customs total, the IS reduced: CITES ddta being 124% of the Customs, The dis':r'epancy i=i l'edl.J(ed a little mOl',? if wh<:!t a,ppeo,;.I's 1;0 be a. -i;ypo']I'aphicctl error in either Customs or CITES data for 198 is corrected (the closeness of Customs/CITES ded,a fOl' l')::::S .. 19::!C and 19f:7 is broken by the le.9.dillt.:;1 digit in 1986; the value in Table 8 suggests the CITES figure should be 2, not .11.), .S,:::O bJhUe the iVOl'Y \I!fuch c\I'I'i\jed in fl'om Al'i':'.hia IS i.nd'2ed likely to come ()vel'lJihelrnill,]l';i fl'Of'j i:ht=> 21nd :iiIIJl.ll.d h&.ve betm a.s::;ocia.ted with it i'1 assessln>;;) the i\iOl'Y pl'odi..AcGion 01' role irl international trade, Yet it is bad book-keeping for the CITES system to h.::tve e:,,':pl..H1>;1ed Arabia.' pole fl'orll th':':: I.'JTt'IU l'eeord. The assumption tha.t the ivory from :::;audi Ai'ab12 \I,':\S \>,Ias, be1.ieve, '':OI'i''I?Ct ;::'.nd ';;hould be documented clearly, But not at the of pemoving evidence that a very large volume of lvory was imported 1m Saudi Arabla, In its retention of the ['.3.ct=.;, the Hong Von'] CJ..JStOfilS l'8col'j gl,ves resear'chers the morE'.: l'eliable The CITES permit inf5rmation in connectlon this Sl:?ctiOll. vel' 1'1 l,:a'tlO,' pl'o>:edure prodlKed 2\ddi tional with the ;:;u;ia.n tl-Iat will b,'2 dlscu3sed In 5,32 With one outstandln>;;) exception Tanzania Africa's CITES statements of expopts to Hong Kong do not correlate closely with the Hong Kong data. Tf).nzi'i.1li.a issued no ,::tlll1u.;:d rOI' t!'e fil'st two yeal's of it.s. membership of CITES, the four reports from 1982 to 19P6 correlate closely with both the Hon,,;:i Kong CL.StoWs and figul'es Th.? sum of lanZe'.l1ia's e:''d the Zimba.b\l}'2 d.nnu::.1.l. l'E'ports, Thi.:; ilKlud'2d ."".11 the iV01'Y PI'Odt-!C'2d in Zimbab',le rl!l.Ich 'of which !!.Ji':'.S not, in fac1., ;:"::pol"t':2d bIXi:, re'h'.i,rl<2d -[')1' Cl"<..=tftin'] wit!'''lin the country, A point emer'(]1I1'] f)'om th:i.s t,:::; th2.t <3.''.::d.e of tl"18 IV':)i";! t.l'i:\(h,:, fOl'=.d:, dj.screpancif:5 to be e:'<.::tIYli. ned thl'ouqh l'ef to st<:\ t i. 5 t:i C l:'l'oducel"", Fa l'k,?l' (197'3) 21nd th i. s 1'2()Or't shl)lJld 11('t, bt:! othel' th,'?-.n CO<'i.l'SI;:O ol.!tlint'?s of th,? over2dl commerce th;:),t \'Jer'e justifi:?d by t!'''l':! h2\'S1;"" !A!ith ." .. hkh c:d. l.i2d for, Further, the interpretatIons h3ve been aided to an Lmmeasurable degree by p,,er'solVl:l':t\,ity \ the tr'c:pj,'2, -tht':' c';)! .,mtl'i,;?'s <'HId l't'li".I1';/ of i.:1le fJe()f:'de a.>:tt.!r.:dly involved,,ul'e al1<'.l1,;/s'2<:; '.:ol.d., j be l'efint,?I.-j and, hopefully WIll be,


I I S,::::4 The res t of Afl'ica.'s CITES e;:::7 Hor .. ;; KOrl'J tOI't'r;; received two fl'om the Centl'al H:public 'JJhich the pe\'flli.t vel'i.fication ':5ystem did n(;,t detect, Af1'i':e.n 'v'.=:rified FJe.'l'f:lits a.r'e 112'/' of \.!"ita.t Hon,;) Kong customs I',.:ceiveci fl'om thai; cOLmtry .. but thi. s f:i';;Jul'e is on 1 y 91 % 0 f HOl'l'J KonlJ sCI d-:t. tB. On 1 y 1. n the :::;Udd n Ct nd Z i do verified permits suggest greater exports than 3cknowledged by the Hong Kong fi'Jures, 21mba.bwe pe1'mits wel'e 141:,1-. of HO\1',:1 I.dy indi,:ated., wh'21'e Cl.isi;of!'ls ,jed:", ,,\i'e conce1'ned, ,:oflHnodi ties in tl'B.nsshipment C<1' bond "H'e not imports clnd not I".'::",;)lstel'ed as such in the records, If not imported.. their shipment does not constitute an e::::p<:<\"\; eith>21' The B(:::lqi.i.J.l1, dnd West Ge1 'trta.n CuS'.toms recor'ds c'.1'2 ther-efol'e def ic ient of [t'IOSt of the r'2\!i} :i va 1',:/ \ ','hich cd-'rived in Hong Kon. ] 'v'ia th\.:;"fft fl'Ortl . is fLn' chi?I' ,:oIYlplic.:i."t,.=?d by the PI'2ct:i>:e.: (!)fl'tffls-need in 1'378 (P'::'.I'ke1' 19T:n of lUmplil',;:l ivoI'Y \>").th othel' commodities, Glven this unsatisfactory situation, I have not trIed to unravel the European Customs Ivory exports to Hong Kong, nor jncluded them in Ta.!::tle 37, .r;;, ,37 Table :37 list.s E:IE'ven EUl'Opei: 1 n countl'ies sa.y they helVE' ,:?::,;:ool'tt"d, I'a. w iV'':'I'Y to Hong !;) CITES conf i 1'\'(\ tr'i?. ,je wi th At.!s-Gr :i.e' . P01'b.Jg<..:d and t:Z:C'..!I' 1 <:>.nd ; Honq l. fi';:JI..Ar'e thD.t is only '\ 1/. of the Customs figure, Switzerland reports no traffic to Hong Kong, I suspect the dlscrepancy arises from ivory transshipped through Switzerlanrl but this should be confirmed, S,39 Of the l'e/t'I.::\inin9 si::<: [w'opean cOl.Jntries;., only one s .::::ndin9 sui:;:it.",.nti.:;:'.lly [flOre ivor'y to HonlJ I.t,3, sO!.Jl"::e <:".difll-GS I'eceived, It. is 8i'it;:dn and".! dL,sCi't?pe\ncy to ct


,j I' yeal' in \lihich f:.,(:.70 tusks ,,,'8re sent to Honq This cOI..!ld I,') l' onc:) on two counts: the first is whether so large a shIpment took place at all; the sQcond. is ':onv>.?I'tin'J tu'::;}:-", 1ll.1IUbel'S to h'i' I'lluitiplying by this can be confirmed. S,.4.0 Belgium join(:?d CITE:::i L::\tt=:. -in 19:::4. --hut tht=}") li.s CnD:; dat.E!. of t''.'::::POI'ts to HOnl] K0\1':) tot.:::d 1071" of Hong Kon';:i I s Custom'::;:, t,..:d:c:d. fl'(.Ift'l thE' COl,lntry. sati::;fact.ol'Y' parity 15 not fild.tcned by Hon . :;) VOl"l';)'S CITES data which is 77% of the Customs total, .r: .. 41 Frend-:, the Nethl=-'I'la.nds' and l.:ierman cI.::i.ta e>::pol'ts 0.1"? all subst:nt.i.:d 1v lower than the cOI'I'e"'.p,:.ndin,] 1+:}\1';] i:::on'J Customs ri'Jul'l:'?s (respectively 77%, 71% and 541). Hong Kong's CITES data are also lower than lion.] I::1 have 2>::pected al] to hove produced. Given Europe's affluence, its sophisticated collection sv::;tem':; and hi,.:;)hly qUc'lified civil ser'vices, the failul'es are of -rCi.r greater import than the African resul for the suggest that, perhaps, the system itself IS unworkable, .,:. ,43 ThE' pel'f;'l j t ve r if i.: <.:d: ion ,j,,\ t<.<. f l'Ofil Bl'i ted n.. F l' '::inc e;:..nd Po l' tLJga 1. I'e (: lose to the Hon .:;) f. h. '3!")L4rce (onf i l'fliS. HOWE"Vf21', 1986 IS similal' to that bv Hong Kong Customs in from the '1'3:37 an.j i.n f.9.Ct largely covel"'::; 1.1"'1'2 .me i .. '>1',/ I,Ikich w<:t.S OcH't c,f the i.rllp()l't -[i'Off! Burundi that came Into bond in in 1986, This seems confirmation of tr!l2 in pal','1, tt-')-G the LE'.usanne offiu2 i.s l'J.2col"ding perfilits approved as ivory moved, WhIC[1 may not necessarily be the case. : .. 4.5 Over'.,:\1]., tr'le EUl'ope.:;'.n S(2cti.on :,1'1 Tabl:2 37 0:0n1'il'f115 thE>.t Hong Kon';J Customs pl'oduces the stl'ongest set of data concerning trade in raw ivory bf:.-tween Europe d:nd H()n9 1

I' f,; bet\lieen F'<:>.!'ties a.nd I th-:;.t COI..Jld be substantIal, -':,,1[(;, The section of :-;:7 Pl'ovldes only onE.' St?1.: clf Cu;;toms .-:1<).1.0. c;:.n be a.'.::li:u.ns't HOI)'J Vonq";:;: Sin'J.:'lpil'8'S, They do not corr'espond closely, b'2:ln,.:.;} 2':3% of tht:' t'.:on,;:.) The J.;.paneSt"? e;-::poI'ts pl'ovi.d'::',j by \J.IH1U wel'' i.n <:1 c(,,--:le thD.t is pl'incipally bit.s 8.nd SC1'e'P and m,t 05090:;::(:, is the (Itore e . ppropI'iate C1.:).':;5 fCI\" wholt? Tliell' inclu',;iol"l v}ouJ.d thus h.'lve 1 nappl'opr 1,::" te SA7 Othel' thi:lll TOl' .],,:..pctn, the ne'.tional CITE:::; d=-'\;8 dis-.clppointing, Ch i n<:1 and alJ, bu th F'dT t h=.'s to chI=? COll'len t i C\l",. have SI.-lbfll 1 i; t\?d no .:=l.nnua.l repOl'ts, Tai .... 'an -, i.n tel'flls of the Conventi,)n a of Chine'.;, de facto . cLll'l'ently an independent non-F'al'tl' state -hds no ':OVIIIYtii;rlt\?n-l:. to -5ubftnt CITE:::; d<::i.ta fop the one '(i?iJl' i,J= ::-1 Pel.r'ty 1987 are 117% of Kong Customs' (and 1501 Of Vong CITES) data -3. d i ''S( l' epa. nCr ',,'h.l. c h c ou 1 d /.)2 <;I .. :': oun ted f () \' by sh 1 pm211 tin 1 9::::7 no t having reached lts f i';]'-H'l?s al'l? I: lose destina-\;lon by the ""pd, The pet'filit V21'iflcatiol"l to -:;'nga.poI'8 s CITE::; data. (99'%) cOl1fil'ftnnl;! tha.t the ie>.tt,2r pele>.ted Ctt to e::q:u)I' 1: t=i if pet \;,',lumes rE'cei ved, .S,LI::: Ja.pi'\n's and HOrl'] Kon,;)'s CITES d",ti:! in jf not in clnnu.)l details .. with the fonner-being 102% ()f the 1-::ttter, Ek.-t:h al'e, ho\','eVel' subs tant i cd 1 y 1 e':15 than Honq Cus toms fl 'Jui'e U::,(,% 64% Involvll195t.Kh substantlc;] aftlOl.lllts :.f :i.v('r,)' It i:; ct pit)' thel t the d 1. sc l'epanc y h.:).s not b,'?en i nves t i.']d. ted nd e;

;'IUB.I'dE.'dly, nonetheless the fa.cts ;:ire as pel'sonally l'.'itness,\?d, The Management Authorities in country A found that they were gettIng more ivory into tl-n?i \' hiOJ.nds thai"' they thOl.l.]ht tt'te w8,::"tel'rl I.e would dE'em pl'opel', They went to the management Puthurities tn countp'y' 8 proposed that 8 notlfied the of a substantially incpeased quota for the coming This W::l.S done, the i.vor,;, movt3,',j fl'Ofll A to E:, .3.CqUi.l':?d th>::? dOcUft't,=.-nts of respectability and enteped trade, The Issue concerned two sovereign states ti-'n'?il' n::d;iorl"d, 1;!-: .... Pi.:'!\"flti1;s thC:I.t


:3S [::isul?d in L.1.1.15.::1nne, \>1<.\5 no ;)f where the ivory originated, It makes the point that the only person (people) who can truly verify a permit is he or she who issued it, 5,52 The previous paragraph records an observation in which two g()'lel'llments 'i .. : ted 1 <:>wflJ 1 1 y., but c la.ndestillel y, Another Cclse concerned ::l straightforward movement of ivory from one to another, It was covered by an appropriate export permit from the originator and import permit from the recipient, However, neither Party notified the Secretarlat of the movement; both felt they l,I,"el'I'=:' beth:I' a.bJ.,,? to vel'ify the pel'mi.ts thi:*ll B.t .:!. desk in tar-away Switzerland, Having seen the ivory moving with my awn eyes a.nd looh=.,d d.t the permi 1;5, T. subsequently 10okl2d to '5e,? if i. t \!i.eI.S l'l':!pol'ted in annual repol'ts or the permit vel'lficat:lon recol'ds, It WE.<. S not, 5,53 A third case lacked the fundamental innocence of the first two, time merchants approached the Management Authority for a sum, induced the responsible officials to notify the Secretariat that in the forthcoming yeo).!' theIr queot.:.. wo:uld bl? in(I'ea:.;ed, Having done Uu':; a.l1d CO[lle to a ft'lutuall Y pl'of i tcd:tlE.' C'\gl'eement, the rnerchclnts {,\tell'l to E:Ul'L'\X!i, bought ten tonnes of i '101'Y f le' .... it to th2 u)untl'Y of cl.)flipl ianel?, Thel''2 1"C acqui I'ed the dOCLlments 01 r'espec t.a.hi I i ty whi eh .!Iel'2 j n coul'se verified in Lausanne. and eventually arrived in Hong Kong, And just as easy to pel'haps easier, is a specL!Ii::ltive pel'mit, The?ll-lfllpol'tant piece of paper is issued, ensured of a slot on the national quota, it WIll naturally be verified -because the Lausanne-based officer cannot check the physica.l ivory d";jainst thl? permi +. -.::'.nd 3 .CCPAj.i'2 the b.?':k-to-bclck impo\'i. permit, The holdel' no\,I} ':]0 .-Dl.!l'2\l for and i.lle';)c:d 1\,01'Y lAp to the li.nnt of bl.s p '21'fnit, ?)nd it is t.hEO'S'2 P21'50)1';::.1 experiences t.hat lead me to the matter of the lOb tonnes of ivory that the pei'l'i'!it SyStl?fil stc:d:.e.s went Into i-hmq :<01'1':;) In 19::::6 <:>.nd 19::;7, 5,54 The 1986 Kong Customs records show 22,880 kg imported from the ::;udi::!.\l, HO\"l!,;j Kmll;) puts the f'i,]ul'e Cl.t 42 .. bJ whi.':h .. 2..S .::di'eady indicated, 1 suspect of a clerical error, Lausanne .. .. puts the f 1.1;:)u1'e C:<.t Sf. tonnes, In the ye,).\' fol J.olliin ,,;], it l'; d. fUl'ther f 1.'JUI'2 ()f the Scl.llie o't'del' E.:? tonnes .. ,,1I-111e both Hon!;) Kon',::] SOI.Jrces indicate 'IJ tonnes, This I':uses sevel'aJ. qlJ2"tions, l"ii.tilin the ';ysteft'! up by CTfE::; .. bi,.;) Cl disci'ep.':Anc';i '5hould t:;I.AI'I::,l'l have been by the Hong I2"iious civil !,I,',:ll' L:)S4'-l' ::;171, \!Ihich We,.S bd.s:,io:alJ.y l'!:tl.:ci" .. of'flCial ivory dried '::c!mpIE,tely, How cOI..Ald thEY 17e1; done '50 this tlll'lt?? I 2111'1 aware thd.t Zail'ois of thl2 PL.2 h2'.ve be'en taki.nq iVOl'Y into :::tJo::1';:'.n on ,':l. r'elCiti vel y smc:d 1 s.:ale (::'\ tonne IlKII"\'l;.h) 2,nd .... 'ould ncd. done 50 I .... ithout d.n 3.ssur Q,j outlet, :3:i.miloi.l'1'/, H ,)ly :=;pil'lt lnoverllent


I. J I rJ I .. a.d::nmdedl;]ed tc.-:;I,;j ivor'y fol' o.nd aJilff!Uiyl"tion lost trtASt in the idea that stones would explode lIke gl'enades jf thrown by a person in the right fl'ame of mind) with soldiers in th2 Sudanese Al'my There could be othel' SOUl'ces also channellIng ivol'Y tha country in a fIIannel' fOI' I.:ovel' \Vi th :3ud<:<.nI:;::SI:? !)enni. 1;S, Powell (p',,"l':; comm) hi:\s l'eceived reliable repol'ts of operl ivory auctions being held in the west of the ::;ud';).n .pl'eSl...lflla.bly "fl)i' tW .. ,k:.; obtained ol...ri;si,je Hovlevel', the m2tter :ould only be resolved satisfactorily through the hard evidence of tl"f1.? tVQr'y i.tself, Tt"le dOiI.t<:) sm."'Ick (if c":?l"mits ] up to SC8.VI 2nq,? iVOl'';' 01..J'1:. of pla.ces ci.n.:! tlrt:.' in the !:;udcl.n i::.; 50 unl ikely tQ have fostered la.PI]e s>:-'''.le 1.',11)1 Y :'l'CII:iu>:ti.CI} th<:!.t I do not acce/.)t tt-n:? pel'fftits ver'ified in L2\usanne a':; f:d'oof th.::'lt 1\"0/')" mc,',"ecJ 01', if it dld, that it C'l'ig.inated in the Sudan, PI'Q tem, !: 'C1.;:.jeci. pe1'l'flit evidence of 10:::; tonnl:"s e::ducti.on \\'a':; lK\t .:only than CITES annual l"ePQrt estimates ovel"al1, but also In every year, What is


particularly germaine to any analysis of ClTES monitol'ing is that discrepancies between the two data sets did not grow les5 wjth time as nll.'dht have been e::-::pected 1'1"101'12 Pal'tif1S join',j the Convention d.nd Improved their data collection, 5,6! Between 1979 and 1987 CITES procedures neither improved nor equalled the long-standing Customs and Excise system Df collActing data on the inter'nation;:..] raw l.vory trade, Th(? cla.irn by WTt1U (in] itt) th.,\t the declining volyme of ivory recorded through CITES was evidence of control over ivory production is classic 'flat-earth' logic! The data indicated declinIng volumes of ivory recorded, but to then argue that, ipso facto, recorded = produced was rash -and in keeping wIth the argument that because a couple before they had a child, the osculatIon pr0Juced the child, .5,t:',2 The 91'owing discrepa.nC)! between Customs d.nd ,j.;:da on (HI'ica's ivory production could reflect Improvement tn the evasion of CITES requirements, The stress on legality is warranted because the growlng VI) 1 of i. VI) I' Y no t appea I' i n'd iii the CITE:::; r' ec 0 \' does n(.I t ne,: i J. v flleC).n that the i ven'y 1..,llll'ecorded 15 i l1e9a.1, The evidence of CITF::; f.::li ltJ\'e cornes from the I;) 1" e::< te1' CuStOIY!S r"?cords ;::,nd tllI.? fa . that CL1StolflS Departments do not wittingly permit illegal coMmerce, .r.;',i:,::=; The de91'ee to -Chi'::; evasiop he:s the CITES syst,?rfl is by 1'3:::;7's prcujr.Ktion A featLJre ')T t.he \'''I\>' 1VOI'! tl'ade fOl' th.? p",.st century ,':!.nd 1'1'101'1.2 is thEl.t, of all annual 1;1'-7.n5dctlons, 8. significant proportion has been between non-Ivory producers in Europe, Asia <:;'.nd Amer iec\, al'e stol'ed, 'Jra:jE',j, spl it ."".nd moved behlE.'en flH?I',:h':'.rrCs ol.xtslde Afr'ic3 and some ivol'y is still in its 1'.0'<'\' fOl'ff! /eclrs aft.el' lei'.win,;) the continent (Parker 1979), Yet the volume 07 this ivory always been less than the of raw material corning out of Afri(3, lhe CITES data sl41Jgest thc . t, fOI' iJ"le tilYle, C':'ffIIY,,21'CE' in tU' ::;ks !,."hleh l:,,!Tt in previous years substantially exceeded the volume of raw ivory production in 1':1(::7, :3lKh Cl. n event i.s not impQssible, but l:::li ven th,? widesprea.d., .il.b'21 t subjective, eVIdence of con11nuing elephant mortality/ivory productIon within Afl'i . :a. ,:>no the lack of SLJPPf)l'ting evidence, It j s Tht'? di fft?rences bet!'veen CustCI\YIS and CIT[::; dc'.ta ':3uggest tha.t. the of infol'rfl.iilt.i.oll on pr'odl...l(:tior La the more likely CS . USt'?, {t is, of pos'3ible thctt 1987 CITE:::; estimates s.!'e the cons.equence of slow rate at which data is sent in though this should not have effected that which comes through the permit verification system, Yet even if this is the ':3.S'2, it ma.kes the point th.::tt D.S a fil()nitol'i.rlfj systE'rf!, CITf:::S hi::tS Dot '.'Jori!I\E.'I".::.' th!;? fir'=it CITE::;; d;.:).t"l. ,:,::dlt:l:t(,\'S w''.:!r',?' ';jivE.,n


L I, access to all and any information asked for, now access is difficult and it is no surprise that the qualitv of data should decline, .5,6.':, The \'ise of OL-Ib.:\i, .:::;i.n';:.F".por',:? and T.:dw<:in 2lS entl'ept,ts, f":Il' e::::a.rnpl::"h'ess two i<5sues e;'::'='cmd the CJ.Jstomr.; estimate of Afl'iea's minirilufil product:i.on -Ghat i<=. givel-! in Tablt? 2J.j., The first is the continent's ivory use that is not reflected clearly in Customs records, :::',f.7 The Cote d'Ivoil'e ha,s so<'J.l c,n i.!;Jl'Y indJ..!stI'YJ (Table 4) tha.t l. 1.; )"'a.nks ':lrllon'd the 1..-j 1 S :i VOi";' .:ons'.,iftl'E:l'S, takin';i :<::0 tonnes a. year, The tIl2tWE't2n :"LS Impol'ts e::q::ool'ts has therefore to be added to the minimum productlor in 24, .s ,(:.;:: M-o:,r tI n <: 19f:.4a.. 1984[:, i 19:::.520., 1'3::;::.5b 19:=::6b) t'2j on the i nter'n.:::.} i VOi''}i tl'adE' in 80ts',','.::;I1F.', ::,oJxch A f i' 1.':1., Za.mbi.z. '3nQ,'e, Hi::; research relates to the early 1980s and indicated that, the five countries consumed about 30 tonnes of ivory annually, He that there !f.';:lS an element also entel'in';:J thf: :I()ccil m-9.d::ets fl'orn hi.s c>.:'r'-Iments on this I feel tot.:,d ':'':'n:; mi.qhi; '::i::'.s"lly hav2 topped AO tonnes a year, 5,69 other countries the Central African Republic .. Cameroon, Congo, Ethiopi.a., Ga.bun, ;=joflia.li2., !:;ud.::tn c'.l1d Z;:,.ire .:;,xIIOn,;) theril a Cl'i::\ditiol1 of Ci""E<.ftlil'.;) lVoJl'y that is st.ll1 J"'!phejd, Thel't? 211'e no dai.a upon v!hich to t i. [tia tt?s ':' f the v'.' hArt I\? 0 of I' c).t!,' mD te I' i;:d thes8 i. ndl..4S 1; I' i n, i.'Jh t C onsuflIe a.nnw:..I 1 y, ti ve pel'sona.l obsel'vat ion of i ve'I',! Cd\'V i \"It;! C'pt":I'atlons; 1 n Ethiopi.a :;uq'Jests tho.t each rtlay (.:onsume .:!. tonne c'. 'lee>.!' ,: .. r less, On the othei' h.::tnd, discLIssion \!ii th trowell,?!'s Cl.nci wi th k"ilcwled.;.)".' of Zai and the Sudan indicates a general of carved ivorY proclaims SOMewhat more SUbstantial crafting SubJectively these appear considerably greater than 2ambia'5, for exampl8, and might thus run to ten tonnes each annually, .5,70 Even in tlle Couiltl'ies of Afr-ic.::'., f!'OIYI Ivhencp ?lE:phant lon'd reduced to vei'\! low nWtlb .?r's, i vOl'y ar'tef:i.J:.:ts :jti 1. 1. \",I?i': . di.l ';! B.cC]l...Ii.rE.'d by visitor's, !::;\"'J.y, aJ.thou'Jh Tan7.<'1l"lla ba.nned ivory two years ago, it has continued illegally on a substantial scale -if no where else, in the grounds of the Indonesian Embassy, 5,71 Given retained traditions and the widespread aveilability of crafted ivor y in Afl'i,:a, I bebI2v'-'.' it vel'y unlikely th<:lt, e:<:cll).:.iin';) the Ced,e oj' I\'Ol \':2 ;:"'!lei the sOJ..rthel'll I tlle of !'Lt:a di.--! nct mOl'e 1\'01'';' the.n the southern st2ltes; l,e, 40 <". )'8<::\\', lil.,:\kjn\J -0:'. toi:Ed of


u I: ,:::0 tonne'::; ,)ut f 01' 'I}<.l.rd f.1i'odlK tion, annually, ThlS subject is being investigated but, pro thiS figure as an element in mInimum 1;12/11, I i \for"!, [.,72 The second issue is th.S\t of e;'::poI'ted ivory ;;:'.nei \,IlhB.t the vC':I.' .Jfi'IE' of this might bE:, EiuI'Lmcii IS I'ole in fl)ovin.,;] i.vory 01.",-\; of Afl'ica h.:3.3 bet=::n well publi(l':sed, l,,!hen 7.he COL!l1tl'Y i)1'lginaIly Cel.IIiE': to PI'('fllinerKf:, it was exporting ivory directly to major entrepots princlpally 8elgiurr or directly to Hong Kong and Japan, By 1984 doors were closed as Burundi l.l2t':; LHla.bL:, to pI'ovlde t:-,e necessc<.ry thi'>-i; l\1dic:i.ted la'I}i'Lil Theil' impending ,:l()sures wel'e B.nnoLmce:d well b2fore 1':3:34 .::\nd hB d been anticipated by the ivory trade, Certain elements saw advantage in this and chose Dubai as a relatively obscure new entrepot to handle Burundi (and other') i.vory, It \,1)0:5 ?.ll"'.::?2..dy-\,'ecelvinl;) shipments of 1VOI'Y from Bt.H'Und.l in 1983 on a substantlal scale, 5,73 From lS84 onwards Oubai was the principal staging post fer all ivory leaving Burundi, ThIS commerce has been carefully and officially documented (cl')nfidential sour'ces), Janl-!.:ll"y '19f3Ll and November the -Sth 1-:.1::::7, '360,tI.::n kl;) Qf ivory wt=::nt to al'1 3.\lt=::r'::"'JI.'! ot' '240 tonne";; Ct. ye2J.l', UnoffidalJ.y, tl'21.der5 involved say that the quantity (j) W.::-I5 and (i.,i:; hB.d l'e.:\ched thlS 1ev8<1 at lei:\<:;"t as d'S 1 St::!3 I have confidence in thE;< '30urces 2nd no l'esel'vCI.tions in pl'esentinl;/ 2.,:,1) as a mlnlfllEI.l average annual outflow from Burundi for the years 1983-1987 inclusive, This has to be taken into account when extending estimates of Africa's mInimal annual lvory productiQn, 5,74 With effect from the November 1987 the Burundi Government stopped iVI}l'}, tr.",.dinl;) and fl'oze C, ::;0 i;onnes then in tr'='.n5it thl'oUI]h the count':;I"/where it still is, This, too, has to be credited to 1987, S,7S The voll..lllle of i.voI"/ left E:I.Al'Lmdi bet\l.leen 1'3:33 a.nd 19:::::7 i.s minim?.lly 1,:3::::0 tonne5, t'iost of this went to Dl-lb<=li, fl'Oft'1 !,llhence d. moved openly to Singapore, Soma was shipped .:landestinely to India, \!Jas held and in Ot.1bi:\i .::Ind e>::pcl\'t.?d 2.5 pc . rtic:dly 01' finishl=:d pr'o . :ucts whid-I e.:;1.5,/ to !'I!ove d'::; CITES 9.\'12 unable to certify or try to control the finjshed there being too fltc:tny ()f th'?fn, Honl;] KQnl;] was c:\ pl'incip;::d ,j12stinati')1l fOI' thi.s p.:: . l' \lJol"kI2d ivory until I-:.It:t: when the rlloved to ,::.t.op fL.!l'ther irnr.:II)l'ts, S,71=, (:2jn th.::d; one'2 the ship::; c<:<.i"I'vinq i /())"), out ()'f Dub",j .:). t Si?i:\, bill::; ()t 1.a .;:lin,;) i.>ierf:? Edtel'ed and It::g2t.l dO(UffIPnt.:.\tion for' i. t \.Iiould bE.' pi"ovid?d, v,lould complic.;:(t,ed tl'i:. ... nsshir.:,,'ilent be1'ol".'2 it al'rived Cl.t its destination, FLil"cr-ler, no OIlE; know th.:;i; it h".d been from Oubai, 5,77 In the light of the foregoing, Tables 11 and 1? concerning Macau and :;:;il'l';,:).':I.pOl'(2 1'2specti'v'e1'l ar'e l'eve;.:;1i]'1lJ, In r1aca.u l'el.:eivl:=:d '17 tonne':; of iV01',/ fl'Olfl Thailand ;,;.. nel in 19::::4 a. fw'thel' 1::;, This \'J!:l';5 in t.hat Thuiland gives no indication of h0ving imported sufficient volumes in either t.hOSE' ()r' pl'evim .. rs to h:ive. 1t'lcldt'" '5uch ';';:!:II)\'t'5 o o-i.b Ie 'f:::), Further, though Thailand is an ivory importer of some consequence mainly ,:,f \,l.'or-ked iVaI">," -it h2,S no pI'eviow::; offil:ial i'ecor'ds of tr-dd:illl;] such VQILifi;'::;'S the\' fcrt' its ')V}ll pUq.iOSi::S ()\" a.s ,:\11 entl'ep()t,


1 1 ... I 40 Uganda while reports 87 that is 173 tonnEs from a country ,'i i th < 10,000 e l. ephants (HI...!r I' i J..l II Co: il ton 19:::0'), In 1 :3Bi:, I't?celved a fLII'thel' .::::0 to'lne<:; fl'om bd.n';/ing its totalled fr'olYt this '50I...1I'.:e to 203 tonn ,.=.; in tl,1,'l) ':/E'?s in 1-:):36 seem SU;)ic'ioLIS. T.;:'.nzani<::\ is known to h,_we sustained widespl'eZi(1 elepha.nt ([-:1 1'1'il1 Dou'a1as'-H<:tll1iJ ton 1':):::7) and a subst<:\ntial 111ega1 iVOI'Y tl'ade, could h.'3.\/e '3upplie:d the indicated, Yet, if this did come f\'om Tanzania, what to the large v()lume ,-,I' i\ .... :.ry from Dub",.'i which (vent to :3in';japOl'e? Thel'E' is .I. sinqJ.e elltl'Y of :3.5 tOilnes which Singa.pol'e in '1::):;::6 -;-I'C.ft', the UnitE,d 2d'ab Efllil', f;:ll' le'55 th;:).ll is si.'ti.j to n?'ve l.eft DI.Ab.::d .. This t::; all nlOl'e CIJl'lOUS ;,1.::; there was no need to conceal ivopy coming into Singapore, 5.80 Intuitively, believe that the Tanzania and United Arab Emirates volumes for 1983, 1984, 1985 1986 (17. 18. 735 and 274 tonnes I'espectively) indica.ted in both 1"1,,'.'::aI..1 and r'el:t)l'ds CITe t:'::(Dubai and elxOfflpC'.5S Inost of iVt')I'Y \I}r'ich, doC'.!mentation C'.nd f"'.15e bills of L:-\liin,;] to conce<.d. .its ol'i.!jin. If SCI, the" resul'faced;o trII'.? offici.::d record-:; arid d,lre.:;.dy beell 2\.-cIJunted for', On this presumption I discount them fpom the Burundi figures, E.,81 T,':!ble presents the !'ecord '[1'0111 Table :::::3 e>:ten.jed by the CotE' oj 1 I voi 1",:0' I S consumpt 2>.n :"-l'b 1 tl'<".I'Y .?st; ima to'? .:0 f i. ntei'nd.l {4f l' ivory consumption Clnd the Burundi figu\'es (reduced by amounts indicated in the previous paragrapll), The raised totals challenge the Customs evidence of a decline in raw ivory oroductlon and suggest that it is more th<.<.n 1'1:'::11. The tr'l?nd '2clr'l is!" could be d fUl'thel' ccnsecl'..Aence of CITEf; pl'ocedul'es ';:'.nd fUI'cin',;) production Undel't]l'ound . r: .. :::2 The fl'.:.lI.Al'eS in T .':\ble :::9 :J.I'e stIll ShOl't of .I'VE' T.otal by an a.s yet I..,mspec:i.fied amount. BI.Al'Undi We'.'::i not the c.n1.y outb?t fOl' Afl'icd.'S undocumented ivory. I have receIved many reports ranging fr0m mere hearsay to 2".CCuI'CI.te, f h(':trld <:!\,:counts, (')f Iv.:,!",/{HI'l.:a. by sea .::\lonl.;J the whole length of the eastepn seaboard from MozambIque in the south to ::::;orfl.",1.i.2'. in the nOl'th. The arflOlmtS invoJ.vE'.'d Cl.1'1? oi'-i;J.:.--n s\.ILntani;i.<".l., T\..til) cl)nsignments in early 1989 are said to have exceeded 140 tonnes. Added to these ol...!tf lo\l}'::i ElYI: I'flOl'e ol'i,]in.::d -',\Ii t;h thl? case of lnckmesia's to Tanze1nic\ whose (onta.ined 1::=:7 tusks \..tihen he tr'ied to l on (oft)pll?ti.)n (if his t.O!..ll' nf duty i.n J.::trll...!,'H',/ 1':):::9, ::;uftice it th2.t the estirfl.:\tes pl'odLlce, j be short of thE' tnle f j gUI'e by .::\s n'tl. .II:h as Oile 01' even hundl'E',j tonnE'S :,Hmuiid 1 y I t should thus be clj::OPi"E.'ci.a+.ed that. estlma.tes :-il.Jt::h as thi::'.t in "fable .::::9, or in the impi'oved tl-F-i.'i; HV...!St shol'tl y r'E.!sul t f l'om F'i'of'2S-i'::iOl' F'e.Jl'Ct? "s \..ti()I'k


l, :-:;h0'-11oj )"\() t be .:: on':; i de l' ed pI' ec i. ?1 t bes t ttl12Y ma. y bE' i. nd i c (-::s th.:;.. t .] i. 'if:! general form of Ivory ,::,,8::::: In the li'::Jht of pctre. I;')1' India f)21.r'iicul.::II' j.nvesti.g;:).hon, In 1979 (P,'H'I'::f21' 1')79) I PQ:tnb,:d l.:)tJ.t the stl'ikin.] incons:i.stency betl,lJeen the puny C1.I"l)OLmts of lVOi"( Indic., offi.cia.lly iriip0\,'"ted and i.ts fOI'ce of iV'')I'Y I': I'"d'tsme:n, Thei'l? were nl!")I'I? of them in India. thcl.ll in the rest of As i.:;. sitLld.U.on stlll pre\?.lls, hundred craftsmen are known to the Indian CITFS Management Authority and still ply theil' tl'c\de ther'e 81'e l'II':'I'e Iho al'e, '3.S yet, (F,t'1cl.l'tin PE,I"S ::omm), Thel'e h;:: .. s beer' a de,: l. i ne i. n the number of c raf tsmen ovel' thE'! past decCI.dE.' and E, is .)f the opini.on i,;hat the Of-rl.::ial sta.tistlcs are in reasonable accQrd with what he from trade sources (E, Martin in prep), Oil tht:" othel' hand, tl'cl.ders in {:Hdc.:.;. beli.eve tha,t the J.llicit ivc'l'Y entel'illl.;j India, E;.::ceeds trri:l.t '!.'ht,,:h III under ti-il.::: C'I.egi,s of CITES and, on these grounds, the issue remajns opell, .;::,,:34 To bi'o<:;\den the ovel'\iiew of Afl'l,.:an 1\.-ory pl'oducti.on, Fiq, 7 Pl"?"3l::nts the, pa.ttel'll of e::'::pOl'ts fl'Ofli 1 '.:1!30-"1 '::.1[:7 The 1ecll':> 1950-,,'1'378 fd'e frorli F-':;', l'l::ei' 1979 Table 104, and those from 1979-1987 from Table 39 of this report, A polynomial regression fitted to the data (Volume = -63395 + 4194y 103,5y2 t I ,13y3 O,0045y4; whera y 15 time = 0 in 1900 and 88 in 1988) shows a rfIOl': It::ss steady in 1'1'oril 1950 lmtil t>le mid-1970s!e.::ll'ly '19:30s .::>.nd ,,, pl'ecipit()us decline thel'eaft,,:o,1' This Ullls"tl'a'hOI1 1S 'fl;:Wt:::d <:',5 productiOIl was not 0 in 1900 and, more important, Table lOA in PapkeI' 1979 is incomplete, Bettel' des':I'i.ptiollS of thE: trend a.I'E: ':;:',\/':11 J.".,bJ.e i.n C",I..l.]hley 1988 and will be fUl'ther improved in current study, However, both the same basic pattern, ,-. .J p A c E r Fi F I G 7 ,S,:::!;=. In>::()mplete as Lmdo'"lbtedly e\\'I'::, the l'c,.W 1.'101'Y Tl']W'E.'S permi.t minimlJlm I/.:::tl.ues to be given to (''s 2tnnual ivory oLltput, These a.I'e pi"'?'::ieiltt:::,d i.n Teltd.e 40, ,Tht? aver'al]e anllw:d. value of 1vory prodl...I('?.-:l OVE.'r the nine ys'al's 1979-1':1t::r i.s hlillioll :.-lild the total. YOI' the pf.:l'iod will have been minimally US$510,2 million, 5,86 The tables in thiS report contain much data that I have not attempted to Sir(lilcwly, thel'e is infol'ma.tion in thE' li'sts tha. t I h,="ve not eildeavoul'ed to tabulate ,-the weal th of inf ol'liIi3tion on tusk weil;)hts beill'] d.n e;(dmpJ.e, A':2j po:Lnt.::;,cJ Ol...r\; ill F'B.i"kel' (1979) .. such data. ca, n gi.v.:::) insight into what is happening to elephant popul.:;.,tions HI flfr-ica, to d.pply th'.-2 in-r()l'mation to trade an<.d.ysE'S would 'Jnl.y be jl..lstified if a clea.r' pictupe of ba.sic pZ""II'arl'letel's i::; 2, an.:) which, up till now, has not been Now that it has been it is t2noiAgh to jl.Ad .;}t:' I .... he"thf=l' the CITE:::; PI'OC>::::dtAI'es thE"; iV.:tI"! t i' a,dE:' 'sue (12e .. ied .5,f..:7 In tha.t a fLlndcl'flenta,l, philosophic;:),l ,)1" CJT[:::; 1'3 t.he to conti'o). ti' i.n i?nd;:'.,n';j'E.'I"2d S!="?C tl"li'xt i.s 1;0 I "i.rf,j, t o\" inhibi t.


I I L: I incontinent th8 COllventil)1l has the iVOI',( tl','.i.dE':. !:;;ome mt-Jl'chants have reti.i'ed fl'om th(? b!..,'i.nes::;, the bUi'ea.!..KI'::l.l::Y 5Ui'I"Oundin'J it is Elltcll;Jethe.' e::( I'hny have rfi'1i"1. 1nEd 'in the most of them the baslc lell;)).c of ti'yi ng to I.?nsure StJS1;cti nable s'..Jpplie::; of iV01'Y, all believE': that Cllt:S has made. iVOI'y ti".::.di.n'J rnOi'(? diffiCLJlt 2.nd stl'ongly l'esti'ictl'?d open t1"Oide. In the vei111 some COl..mtl'les p<:u'tiu .. l1E!I'ly those in E!...lI'ope those thc).t pI.:iye.d entl"epISt l'oles .have withdrawn !rom or l'educed the volume of I'SW ivol'Y passed thl'ol..l>]h the.m. ::;in>,;Japol'e e'.l'ld DtJba.i '::"PI? t'lrtKHl>J them: the 'l'OY'lill?I' now a PE'.I'!;." to th,? Convention, t.he lc:li;tel' not a Party, but for l'ea50115 of its own it ha:3 50 dlSCOUl'aged the ivol'Y (and l'hino hOl'n) traffic that it no longer figu1"es as an atti'active option to those who once used It so successfully. In this b i 'oa.d but di f fU' :;'2 C>.nd SOfliEwh:;:'.t '011'2 sense of >,;JenE.'I'Cl.l inhibi tion, th>2 Convention has succeeded. E . ::::!:;! In othel' ver'Y rilLJch flIClre aspects CITE:;::; pl'>.KedL.Il'eS helve failed .::.iraJIi-::\t:kc . lly d.nd .':I.r'ties co1.1echveiy '::'.nd with a. few su,:h c.\"." HOll';t hel'"le f.",ll!':!d in then respoll:iibllity to pl'oved the !3ec retell' IC'.t w:i. t.h t iril'::l det.:i 1 BllliU;,d. repol't::; of thei I' trade in l'aw ivory (and othel' list2d CITES species). Many have simply not Otheps I'epol't so la.te tha. thei i' sl.lbmi S5 ions mOl'E' of the natul'E: of hlstol'ical documents management tools. In example, by Novembel' 19:::::3 evidence on tt'jlO! I. 'lory ti'ade f i'(>0'1 1 l'epopt5 was dl'awn ove\'whelmingly from Kon, ;' If tha.t COLmtry held not repcl}'ted promptl. y.. thei'E' wOl...lld ha\le been pr'e . lous 1 i ttle ev idence .;:..v.3.j.lable. 'ft-p;? f<:<.ili.Al'e to 1',::POI't i'5 2-.',Jgl'avated by'. e fL!l'thel' railui'e to use consistent ter'O)s .-pa.l'ti.culai'ly "kp2i'e iVOl'Y is .-meerned. TI-Ie use fyi' tusk numbel's by some Parties and tusk weights by othel 1 intl'oduced a substantial element of ina.cC'-H'3>:'f. And this was th,?n .:orilp,-,t.H1ded t>j d.n unrlK.,SI.JI'ablI2 de';ji',;?e by failing to sepal'ate l'aw, wOl'ked and wOl'ked lVOI'! fl'OM one d .nothe!'. Tt-1'2 del;Jl'ee of f.;tilw'e vJa.s at '::1 very 12.::\\"1/ i.ll th>:'! past dec.; in the lack of cOI'r'elation b,;?t',!,1een and i.mj:JI)I't?: .. This r.::..ilul'e has been bY'ought to the Pal'tles' attention repeatedly by the !3ecl'etaria.t .?'I"t their Notrnng '!.!2-.S ccne it. ?\t this 'fui1d3mental J.ev\:::l, 1''2sponsi.bildy [01' fail!..,!1e .l.1>:-::S >:1e,,\l'ly aud unequivocally with the Pal'ties . . :::9 To I'ectify the fail!..Ar-e of the i'eports -\'.Jhi.:h to be CITE:f; pi'liKipal i.nfol'rilc.' .tion q<:: ... syst,?m calls for' a slf:':ultaneoLls <=).11>:1 profound impl'ovement in the performance of all Par-ties. If the ten yeap s in which CITES has been operQtional have seen improved reportIng, it is not pl'actical to expect any change towards the basic unifol'mity that l,I.'ould thE' I'epol'ts l"'!s'2ful. AS'i I commented .llel' 197'3).. thE' Convl.:.-ntion' s ef f el: ti in conti'>:> 11 i n,] l'elated not ml.Kh to hOI.>,1 many sp';? '.vel'e listE.j on i.ts a .ppendices> bcS(j(l). when tht=: li.sts >,:t4 .. 000 (LeI. POInt'? pt?l ":::; (('I'flri!) each of whi,:h i.s st.lppc,sed to be known by scientific L"".ttn or (j"el?k (.CI.nd rfl.:!.IlY of onl.y a '-:;'.tin 01' Gl'et'?f:: ncHfle!) the l]ul f between pr2lctice ::lild U'I''?o!',:! hels beCOlrlf? unbri.d> thl2 01'9.::1.\1;:5 which put th'20i"y' lnto no blO)dies elr .? MOl'e awal'e of thiS than the civil upon whom it devolves. Thel'ein may lie basic cause for' the of annual 8e as it may, I do not that improvement In this aspect of CITES could evel' come about


I k ql..,li.d::l.y enou';Jh 'V', f11onitc'l' i,V('l"'Y tr'ad(:=, .'O>'rt-2'.tiVt"!! needed to replace annual reports in this role, !:,.:ii) In 1e'.1'g8 part the ivc))"y '-1 u'ot,:;. .. s,nd IX?I'I'f!lt v(?rlfl(2.i;:ion abeiLIt. throl.Jgh that t.he r-ecoffllilendE'I.:1 Lmd21' CITE::; I!h:?l'e not cl..ll'bin.,;j IVOr"{ pl'oducti.on, Agc,in. i.t is possible th.::<.t this i:c\i.lure arises primarily through a misconception that trade, psr ss, is the engine of i.vOi'Y prclljuction an L:isue thd.t \I}i.ll be .'3.d,jI'es,s:?d in rol.lowin . ;) sec tion-:::, It is also cel' that the funci,'Hllell'tal conflicts of intel'e'5t out of States' d,::: JUI'e! o'II:,nopoly ,)f elepha.nts '::'.nd lV')I''y' which they e:: <:!?l'cise, and theil' de facto ab:Ll.ity to the monopoly. thelt is cOfilrth2ntt:?d on in pCWd<'; 1,:3 -_. 1,::: ,)f this i'epol't., he,.ve neither been considered nor gIven their due in attempts to regulate ivorY tr-.:;'.di.n'J, FOI' <='.5 ion.] 2S the infl.uence of such tAo!)n 1,'.10'''/ pr'oducti.on d.l"'E.' ignored, pl'a.ctica.l .:ontl'ol of the trade ",!i.ll sLlffe'I', And it is from thiS view that I consider the ivory quota and per-mit system with a sense of PI'C,fOl..lnd hopelessness, ::;,:epti( ism OVCI' it is t'lpparent i. n the fiICl.nnel' th2.t some Parties sanctioned ivory movement outside af the verification procedures, That, alone. was a potentially fatal challenge to the concept. Th,?n the quota':; '*'el'e quota'::; ill the tl'Lle o'f ::poi'ts 01' iV':'I'Y producel's simply agreed 'b:, notify aU. r;,;:,1' of \i.'h::d; they thou.]ht th::?y w.-!uld pl'.xh..Jf:e in 2. for'thcofillnq y",,::o).I' .::;:'ol'ts i.!':'lpOI'i;s, It h<'i.s improved matters somewhat but. as the evidence shows, lack of correlations do persist, the system not measul'ed ivory product Lon better than the annual repol'ts, and it is open to manipUlation, '':',':)2 The pr'2icticc,.l outcome of CITE::; pl'ocedLH'es 'lIas to drive some ivory trading underground, As basic production was not effectively monitored. the disappe.::t1'' 'J.'as \Jii'orl';;Jly e,S ';jenulnely declinin'd 11"1 turn, this was interpreted as evidence of the success that CITES procQdures ',J,i'2'f'e ha.vil'\';j. And to thi.'::i cl?.'lO'i \J;!-il?rl the J.c-vels of 1\/01'''/ Pi'OdtK t ion \'len'e be ill';) SI..fS t.,d ned at high 1 !?Vl:? 1.';;;, tic 8.1], Y Lfllde I'SC01'8:,; the problems facing CITES r.; ct:, 0-t ..J Failure automatically results in blame, And blame, the failures J_n the p;;,.I'e . o:\\'e >::oncel'ned, li'2 sql..J.::t.rely '.vi th the F';::'.l"ti.,.?s themselves, the conservation public and, particularly, westerndomi nc'.ted non--';jQVel'llI'fl!?llt i: lull ol'qa.n i S,,:\ '{; lons t,.!h ic h h::\vt::! the main stimulus for governments to have adopted the unsuccessful procedures, Blinded by the purity of their faith, besotted with intentions. af'ild.teul' in t.heil' they have l.gnol"f'::d 0\' '5Llbv2l'ted the tl'lJth jn f8,'/OU1' of \IKII .?fi...l1l.y simplisti( scdutions, And in doi.n,] so, the P'ti.!?',:; em,] theil'" pIciced tht.? Convention's W,,:(5 in a.n


t ... l!' L il't'lpossibJ.,? post t lon qiven the f lal.l}8d pc.l[c l.tistics, ':\l'e pl'oduced monthly by many countl', ma.ilE:d to filE' by post, For work that took less than one hour a month, I produced a brief runnin.,;; sta.tement .)f Clll'l"'l;:;;nt voltJme i')lld va.l.ue 't1"end's 5,95 It was with SOMe incredulity that I learned that no such rudimentary system operated within CITES, WTMU has made several of the data banked with it, but until this report. the sum of eVidence has been If CITE::; delta h;: . d been the only sc'uI'ce of illfl.)I'fI12'.tion., its numel'OLrs Inconsistencle'3, mi';jrlt. amE,li,-wate disbel let sli';Jhtly, Whf'\l e'.n <:>.1 tE'i"na.t ive SOUl'ce e:::tens i v .? ft'luJ.ti-llcl-b,:.nal Customs <:In,] E::(cise recor'ds was overlooked. tl"lE: failure J.S stLAllnin',;), It l'S <:Ill thi:'! fl'lI)r'e so because the one comprehensive stud: of international ivory trade unclel'taken in the past ha.l f cent:._H'Y If IS not only b.::tsed tlpOn the ClJstoms Z, records, but a copy is owned v the Secretariat, Given the example thd.t, hOIJJevel' incomplet2, the CUS1;C'flr-I'ecol'ds pl'()"ide .:;.. coherent inele::.;: of developments in the ivory trade, and knowledge that CITES elata were not nearly as comprehensjve. failure refer to Customs before now 1S s t.::tI;Jge I' :i n'] 5,96 J have tried to establish how this situation have come about, The one, i'ea.son P'...It fOl';!!.;:'.I',j (Bar'zdo pel"::;, comm Ber'ney comrn, Huxley pel's, comm. La Pointe pel's comm,), is lack of money, 8arzelo fUl"thep qual if ied this by sa.' th .. t l,t.JTr1U h.: . d llE'ver been reque'5ted to acquIre or analyse all Customs & data, Lack of money is an impressive reason! S ,':'.i7 Yet, ther'e E'. r e contl'lbutol"'Y L'.iCt.')i'S thcit not bE:i2n .::\ddressed, One, is i.filpol't''''.nt, corKel'ns qu .').lifica.tions of those I),tho hd.'.i'.::: been involved .eithel' in ttiE' 01' --II/ith mon;.tol'ing the ivory trade. The basic requirements for this sort of work are either experience 2tnd/l)l' tl'c inin.,;j in eCl)nolni.cs andlol' ':C'[flfflerce, most lik::?ly fiE.:.ld .... !ithin l.vhi.:h t ) of i.nd such ::II;tr'ib,...;b2 'S is thc . t wi.thin '",hi>:h the!,;' 2'.I'E' I'OlJtin,'21y employed Customs Departments, None of those empll)yed within WTMU 01' the S(:?cl'.::d;ai" i.:;'.t h;: . d tl-'I'::: o<:l'"iic: i f :kc\.t.ions r:all.'=.,d for: thei I' ba.>::h;Jl'. :..uncls \.Iel'e in bioll)gy and wildlife, WTMU (in litt) has responded that It has yet to b J sho',llll tl-'Iat oic)lol;:)ists are, per' inCOft'lpetEmt to moni to I' and analyse trd.cb2, Usirl'J the . bsur' d to ffl.;).ke tht' point: .-,:\qy't,:!:;.: thd.i; for'm.:.;d qtJell if i':';::'.tions <:t.te not. of or suc.:t:ss, but. not. fflany people consent i;o a jOI...ll'na.list defendul'J the 1':'1 til ,':'I. COl.,Il't ')1' 1)(' a. 'J 1"OC I? I'


: t .. S pE'!l'for'OHn'::J sw",,:iel'Y' upon them L.B.(:k of CjLf."d.:i f'.t.tion m.:;;..y b8 '::;'2;; a:';i.dt2 by those who have succeeded without it but not, as in this instance, by those who have f<.iiled, 5,98 To conclude this sectIon, radJcal revisions are cal Jed for 111 CITES' pl'oced!.4res fOI' th'2 ivory trade. I ",.fit tha.t ther.;" ;;H"'?' simple and effective ster's which C

If:':_ CAUSE OF DECLINF > 6,'1 7 and ::; of t.h:i.s r'l?purt depive 12ntir'ely "[i'onl a pape1' in PI'I?<:;S by .8l Gr<:t.hartt, Their fin,jjrll.;J':::i CI.rE' ge'I'lllaine to .O\n,/ comprehension of elephant decline for they ppesent information on the process since 1925 and e::'::""lll) n '? i i; in the tht:wr'et:k"d of (ompeti t1 vrE.' e/c 1us1.on and hw(!,,!j"j increase, as well as relative to economic trends, 6 2 The analysis pl'esents hum<'m and elephr:;nt denslties in !:::enYi:l.'s administrative distrIcts (FIg,8) shOWIng that elephant densities were zero or low where hurttan densities were high and vice versa, Earlier scientific records showed that this had not always been SO, Elephants had once been pr'esent in O"Icl.llY distl'ict.s that Wl?l'e devoid of them in '196':' and theil' had occurl'ed ',!Jher'e hWIlCl.n densi t h;:,d I' i SE!n l"a.pldJ. y and wel'e high in 1969, '5u';)gesting that the fflissing elephants h.;;,j been Oi' ktll:.'?d by pe')ple in competition fol' L:'.nd ,-. .-::, A c E F R F G ,-, o 6.:::: Th(? I}ere inci : ::"5in.;;] ':\nd, by e::"hoJ.e, the h Urli x: popLJlation inc I'e<''lsed e::nSl:>qu2n t I.,; . compeUi:.t.c1/"i bi:.'C:Ofll2S mor'e aCI.rt:!=., as the


>.> .> of e.ithe}' species .1nCl'east?s lid/I' ':!)ncJ.uded tha.t only twC) logIcal outcomes of competlt10n were possible, fIrst was that where the demands of twa species were sufficiently 51mllar, one wGulel extinct, n,,:!., sE'cond w:'\s th8.t cB.lled fOI-' i') uffi.ciently 103.1"1;)2 zone of non-ovl-:?r 1 ap, 6,(' In East Africa. in 1925, hL!tlla.ns occu:;!j'.:;.'d l:;.t<'l.nds in EI. of elephC:l.nts. i.sli'lnds and co,::d.e5(8.1 untll I:i'y' ')7.t::. !-g:?ld: eleph.:::,.nts 'I1'a .9rf:entin,;!, i.sla.nds .:1. sea. of hWlI3.ns, and G1'ilha.m th.::d; thJ.s 'Na:5 the mani fl?:::i t2..-\; ion tidYT I s f 1. l"st outcome, It implies a considerable overlap in habitat which they first consIdered from the two species' reSDonse rainfall, 6,7 ()sing tv.IO set'5 of Kenya data they illLlst1'ated h,:)v,1 hUlfI

G CAUSE OF ELEPHANT DECLINE .>.> > 6," 7 a.nd ::: e.f this del'ivl.? entil".21y fl'om a p0.per in pr:?ss by F'ad::er S' Gl'ahc\ffl, The:l I' f i. ndin .:Js ;:)el'ma.ine to any cOfflpr'!?he:ns:i on of decline 1'01' '?nt infol'fflation on the prCn:t:!';5'::i '.:;i.n .:e 1:::<::3 CI.nd e::'::clmine it in the theor'et:i.t:al conte>::t of cO[llp.:::t.ii.iVt:2 e::>"!s ha.d ou:urr'ed whel'e hUffl2.n d",!nsit;i.:,s h'''.d \'i:;en pc...pidly c'.nd were high in 1969, suggesting that the missing elephants had been displaced or killed by people in competition for land, c-'-' c E F o FIG G,3 The I.:e was supp'_\r'ted t)';l th9 piCt.Ul'f! fl'Of'l I::i:tst Afl' ::; d. whole, Kingdon (1979) mapped East African elephant distributions at thl'ee points in t1lne -1925., 1'3 & 197.5 and 11!?2'.5L11'(?ments from hi.s showf.-!d that in 1925 elephants occurred over 87% of East Africa, declining to 63% in 1950 and to 27% in 1975 (Fig,9), A c E F (I F l. G 6,4 Data. on hLHYlan disti'ibl.).tiomi compsl'abl.e to Kingdon I s ("979) eh.!ph.:::nt distl'lbutions for all of East Africa are not available, but thl'oughout the SieHfle ei'c,. popl ... Il.!':! irll:l'easin .;; r1nd, by in"t>:?l'ence, e::: :p;:mdin>], F01' \'e>;li.on <"s cl \vhole, the human population ill>:I'e"ISed e::.ilv the :;,:"fll'::.' timE.', ':;irlril<:'.r S:i.tud.tions that eleph.:'Ints do not occur where hwnans sett lE.'d PI'e"'/:,iL 1. !,I,tidel Yd.>: i'0':55 I' lea <"1.nd :;lJ']qest th,,!'f: the ob:'5el'ved contractions of East Afl'ican elephant range came about as a dil'ect result of ':')fflpetition fl'Offl fllan, 6,S t1a.yl' (E!I.:,.::, ) the essential .!lements of t[Il::' (l)lllpt?tltiVt:: e;<:d.L4sion a.s defined by Hal'din (lSi60} by '::;aY'in>;) it II means that tf,lF] species seE'!f..: simultaneously an t?ssential of the erwiJ'c)I1f1)ent (such .':15 food., or' d place to live, "", to h.ide .. 1.11' to bl'eed) that is in 1 i.mi ted Stlpp.l,\!', C017St=:qui:?ntly' O..1Iil{..1t:?.f:i -tiof} beCOflli:?5 Ii)Qre acute as the


l I populatlon of e.i'tilel' incte;:"'E:5," tha.t only t\!.IO 10gic:l.l oub:.)me':; of competition I.,l,'ere !!sslble, The:: fil':;"\; Wi:,S tha.t where thE' demands of two species were similar, one would become extInct, The sec'JncJ th<::'.t coe::'::lsiten,:e (.::<.1J.>."d TOr' tt\ suffi.cientl.y L':I1"::1e ZO\1'.:; of nOn-O'lel' 1 ap 6,6 In East Africa in 1925, humans occupied islands in a sea of elephants, HI'::?sc' islands e::::pandl.:;.,d co<.d(?sced l.Jnti.I by I '37':, the held: fra'dlll'2ntinl;J, d:i.minishln,] isl.::!lids in a sea. (If hl..,lffl<':iiTS, Pad::er' clnd Gl'3.ha.m cont,=nd th:).t th:is was fII.::<.nifeotxt;ion of l'-l<::I.,/\"s f:i.rst OlJtcor.,e, It implies <'1 (ons:idel'abJe ovel''Iap in pre"el'l'ed which U'Il=!/ fi.i'st cOl1':::ii. del'I:?d fr'l)lrt th,? two speci.I::?;jl to I';,;ill, 6,7 USln9 tWCI sets I)t i sh.-.we.d th';:<.t a Slf!!:il':::l.r ri?lationship bet\!.leen hLlfil.::l'll Ch=.orlSil"ty EI.nd i'ainfall i.s evident eV'E!il ':d; thE.' COlmtl',;! f"l' the f-ifr.Lc.::<.<:,.s a whole, soil fertility 1s included as a in the analysis, (:,,9 Eleph;;:-!llts, too, 51-:1,)1 ... Cl l:orl'espondin,] respon,,>:? t,: 7:<.nd +.l'-II? close correlation between rainfall and elephant density pal'allels that in m::'.n, lmplyin'] <:"\11 ovel'ld.p in pl'E:'el'i'I.:?d h.::<.bi t:::lt OV2C 2. cOll'::;ideriOlb12 r'.:::d.nfa.ll ran,,;]e in !:!i th the t;lener.:d rela.tionship be1.\.\leer1 10:\\";;)2 hel'biv')i'e biomass and rainfall described by Coe et aI, (1976), 6,10 The strength of these correlations is strikIng, given that they could tll2 e;;tinction point is .::I.t a lower density of 18,9 humans/km2 6,12 In thf.! absence of dc, tel <:it the distl'ict i.evel. for othei' countl'ies tt-V?';' CI)uld only :-5 om';? obsel'V3.ti.on:; c.;mcel'ninl ] the pc.ttel'n of elephant and hLIfI)<:<.n de.'ns:itie5 (f)'Oill CUI'IHilin'::;J .J:::v:kson 19fM cl.nd F' o. r' k r '1 \' I?S pee t 1 ve 1. y ) f .:. l' the I' :i \l i !"lI:;j :':::3 oub-::;ahii.; i' a. Ii .: OLin oj; l' :i es, I n 4 (10%) WIth very high human aensities, elephants are already extinct, In 19 (,4::::%) elephant densiU.E!S h <.W I? al't'E)c. ... dy been 1"2dUt::i:!d tQ vest i,] i <::1 1 levels and in the r'est they fal' below thl?ll' ::Iptima relative t.o bot.h rainfall and geology,


I., / (:',13 A rflLlltiple lJ.llea r of hurn.';'. n d,='n:-:ii.ty a.nd soil (for high and medlum fertility countries) estimates relative elephant dens 'l Y" ,:I.S: Y = 0.10158 0,0111 x soil class 0,0197 x human density, tl,l,'O ;:\lone acco:...lnt for ot the '.J'ari;::'.tJ.on in r'e1<".tive elephant densjty, 6, '14 Pa.d::er"s and Gl'i:lhf'.m s findill';1s al'E.' in broa.o dl;:)l'eE .'[(lent fliLKh in F'arkl21' and '''.lso E:Ul'l'ill,)n (ISln7), The L::ttter authors found the strongest positive correlatIon in their data was he tween elo,:?phallt d211Sit'y' ;;>.nd 'effecti.vI2 pl'oteo:tion' i ,e, wi.thin ,j.'i.llctUCii'i'.2<5 1)( de'':>l>dnated ",treas f 1'01(1 which hLlma.ll acti vi ty \1)i:j.5 Ed thei' be>.r'l'ed 0 1 20.'1.; 1,'? par tl;:.:>.ll y inhlbi ::::;imi 1;:..\' 1 y > they fC>I...llld pOSl. i;i ve c>.)i'\'I:::1;:"-(; [(in e.leph.::;tnt density a.nd the distl'lbuticon of tsetse (Gloss.ina) .. due in the1l' view, to tsetse rendering land inhospitable to man elephant presence is higher where human presence IS inhibited, The two correlations i .. te tl'ia t most el(;'''phdnts Q':CI.Al" \o,Ih81'E.' huma.lls ".),E: f Yet E:lJI'r i 11. Z! Douglas-Hamilton also found 2 positive correlation between elephant density and pa.infal1. ... that the hi.>]hI21" eleph<'1nt densi ties in the 5E'fIIP. type of habitats that supported the higher human densities, That the two spec i.E'S have th,::! same tat pl'efel'ence, yet IY!OSt elephants now OCCU1' \l}hel'e 2Il'e fewest is entirely in ke:::'pin>J with the hypothesls cof competitive 6,1.5 The c!a.ta pres:.ented shol,t} tha.t mE!n and elephants both pl'erel' fel"tile, wetter land and that competition for thl.s goes a long way towards c1.ccl]l,llltinl ] fOl' elephant decline in Africel <::l.nd the corltinent as ;::,. wholE', F'di'kei' ?,.: GI'.9.harn .::\lsQ shol.>I tha.t sinll.l.::\r del::-llnes oCI:!...lI'red i.n other species which do not produce and trophies of great value: for example kob, ,]lr,::.:tffe, zebra c!lld 1'02.n .9.nte 1 OpE' (Table 41), These par'cdlel de.:lines in '3pecies '.vhich ,He not hLmted for iV01'Y >.:jives e::(cE.'ptionally strong support to the conte"tion that the phenomenon is general to lar'ge Af I' ican fI).:Hflft'I.::ds and no-(; pecul iar to eler...t-v::mts becfl.use they L>e"<.I' tU:-:iks, I'h:;!'e th,::ln any othel' ev'lojen,:t'?> tr',is undel'fI'Iines belief thc:\t 0::0ntr'01 of the iVQry trade is the most important requirement to stop elephaRt decline, If other large mammals that do not bear same rate, then there has been a serioJs that CITES can address the problem, [vory have been declining at the misplacement of in the


I! I' 49 I NFL.CJFNC:ES 7,1 This i s also bas'.'2cl on Pa," er .8: Graha.r!I's pa pf?r :i.n press, I)'ends; In mortallty 1n East Africa reviewed and compared to trends in the aVel'a,;).'! annua.l valGIt:!s of IVO!"y ""'ld trade infol'l'na.tion on thE'; volumE' a.nd valt)8 of iV01'Y fl'om th,:! rest ,::>f Afl'iGi., The infol'fiICt.tion is considered in two phases: 1925-1971 then 1950 until the .present, The re.;:'.50n1n l;) behi.nd this is c:\ d but unpl'ov'?11 bt21 ief tha.t elepha.nt dt'?c 1 ill!:: j s phenorllenon pa r' t i ': ul a 1'1 Y 2 -soc i a ted VI i t.h th!'? pas t t\lK' dE:,c a.des : trH'2 ei'i;\ (jf Afril:<:i.'s politi.ccd :i.ndepend. ...., .-, { The number of elephant deaths annually in East IS unknown. but. Customs & records of ivory exports between 1925 and 1971 provide an inde::< of rnCll'ta.lltv over this pertod, They al'e onJ.,;, 2'.\1 Hlde::( beca.L6e throughout there were also unm8asured illegal exports, Further. elephants of less than two year's old. which contribute significantly to annual mortality (Laws et a1 1975), dG nGt leave ivory as evidence of their passIng, LackIng estimates of unlawful trade and the numbers of under-tw(l-ye':H'-olds tha.t died. it i.s .:;!"5sufflec1 tha.t the off i>: ic:d sta.tisi;ics \'ef.)1'esent pl'ev.:uling mor'talit.y ti'.=:'nds -. 2.t least until 1971 aftel' they became less reliable (Parker 1979), 7,3 TEt.bie 42 e:::p')l' ted f r 'om together !,I,'i th ;.:o':;:'.I'kel'1979) 1925 :::: 100, pl'esents I'e.:o)'cis .:.[" the t.onn2\'Je of i vOl"f Ec . st Afl'! be(;\'J>E:.::n 1')2.5 .:''.ll,j 1'371 (both yea.l's i.nclu,j''2d), the c ':;'1' l't?spc>ndi n';J 2t.ver-:3,';J<=' annl.!a 1 ve._Iues :1. n ( f )'om Both volume'5 c:,nd Vf.''s .':I\,:,? :, pres.:::nted as indices v.'i th 7,L1 10 glves a l'e';Jression (r "" 0 0 :::: O,(jOl) for the tr'end i n i vor'y e;q::II))' ts <:'>.nd sho',1":3 2>.n i f i'::;i? f rorH, 4 i j" 1 1 '325 to T':C, t, in 1:3/"1: <":l fivefold incre.::tSE' in 46 yeaTS or F,2-., I/, the trend is ::\n up!,!,'<":lrd bul';]e i.n 1::l36-1 that .:.)'::; I,tii th r'eco';el'ies following the Great Depression and the release of stocks in hope that prices would recover to pre-1929 levels, A drop in 9xDorts durIng the early 1940s was due to lack of shipping space because of the Second World War, A s'2cond SUr"]E in e::'::pOi'ts in the '1'94013 occuPi':?d \l)hen wal'-cl.cCI..Afflulated stocks were freed once transpo\'t was again available, p c E o F 7,5 The two bulges and the wartime artefacts and basic ivory p\'oduction is I G, depression In exports are likely to have been somewhat thus const2nt than the export data indicate, 80th also make a pOInt, First low price and then war temporarily blocked trade yet. even in the absence of a rnarket. elephant kept dying and man acqulred theIr ivo\'y, More important, th\'oLI';Jhout th.= 47 }.' .... ory pl'oduction (= '21epha.nt d!:!ath'3) rose s te2) d:i.l y, lilt? thl,lS t,!.,...:. yet independent \:::in';jd.:.n's ("i979) on thf..' loss of '.::leph "!.nt and the (\.tstOI'!IS of i YO:"!, 2::

t.' I \' d .50 in tl'-p::-colonial. er'c>., if the I '.Cl.t-! of dec lIn,? esti'1b1:lshed b,?t',r,II:'=:I.'2n 1950 and 1965 is projected forward, it would account fur what has happened i. 1"1 thE.' 1970 ::; and '1 9GO':i 7 (; an.nuC:11 i VOI"/ val(Aes show trends between 1 'J:?!.:; e:<.nd 1 ':i71, The fir' :5t bei;\!Jel?1i 19:2.5 {!.'as a decline, fo)' I.!}hlr:h regresslon is given in F i g 10 (r = -0,97, P = 0,(01), Values fell 75% in eight years, Traders say this was caused by the Great Depression of the tillh2, It wa. s not matched I,I,lith a cr))'I' decline in ivory output, th<'lt -l,?:;:\s't in thi'3 period 'iVI)\'Y valtAe (i,e, irK'?ntive to trade the commodity) was not a primary cause of elephant mortality, 7,7 The second trend in values ran from 1934 until 1971, when they rose at :;'.n a'h?r,').ge of p,a, ()vel' the yeal's, linear' I";:,'gl'ession f';)I' the trend is shown in Fig, 10 (r = 0,84. P = 0,001 >, l t: The vall..Jes in Table Bnel Fi.;:) 10 al'e I.Ai1COl"'I'e,:ter:i f>Jl' inflation, As the Depl'sssion and the Second WOl'ld Wal' complicate such cOl'rection, Parker (JI'aha.r11 dl":'pped the yeal's pl'iol' to C:\lllj e;<:aminelj dcita tOI' the ::':7 iE'ars 19!':,O-198:7 Table 4:3 theil' i.nde;:: o'f deflat,'2d i.V!Ji'Y values tOI' 19S0 -19:37 In which 19.:;.0 == 100, Also clf'e sjli'd j.::,(\"' indicE.'s for' the toted. volt.tme of I'a.w iVt)I'Y tri';tded (Not.?; this is not all ,:!;;t.ift'latE.' of ";;",\1 ). V')I'Y prOdl...K tj on bLJt a meaSLlr'e of i ntp-I'Il.E'1tional trade In l'aw i VOI''ji --cl bett .91' ;':>.g.:nnst which to cl:rmp.:I.I'e dnnuaJ. vodl..!e::; it will in,:li.,Ide fCIOVE::ft'Il?ITt of stocks 11"1tO .;:r.nd out of stcll'al;:je, As t:<'Il'llel', in of trl'2 in':ort'lpl.etene::;s of C!"{StOfil'::; F'ecl)I'ds, j.t h.': . s been used cIS .::'.ll inde::.:: of basic production), the v,lol'lc.i Bank's f'lc . nufal:tuI'ing Unit V'Edl..J2 Inde::< (t'IU\i) and a World Bank General AgrIcultural Commodity Index, 7,9 l"IUV is derived fr'ofll cif e;'::pOI't valLIe':; to 'JevElopin9 (ountl'ies fOl' .2, "b.3.sket." of items rllanl..JfdctUl'ed i.n industi'i<".l Oi.:?.d::et 2r:onomi.E.'s, It provides a bench mark against which the status of curl'encies or commodity values can be measured or deflated, 7,10 Three of the indices -ivory volume, ivory value MU\i all sirnila.)' strolll;) posi.tive with time (Lo'J va.lue I' :::: 0,:::(:;,:2, LOI;) volume I' = 0,901, Log MUV I' =0,935: all p -0,001), Agricultural comr:K.rji., on the othel' h.':l.nd, showed ';::\ ne',;jati \Ie 1 i nE.'a.)' l'elati()l"lship (r = -0,794, P = 0,(01), 7,'11 In -Chi'':; situa.tion in 1.VOI',),'S Volume, v.::dl."le, ,;'llld 1'1UV shol,l,lF:d similar upwar d trends between 1950 and 1987, they also correlated strongly with one another; value/volume I' = 0,781, MUV/value I' = 0,936, MUV/volume I' =, 0,9::::6; all p :;:: 0,00'1, Pmd volume., va.lue .':\nd !'1UV COI"l"121.ated nt,?,:;)atively with the agricultural commodity value tl'end; with r -0,617, MUV l' = -0,646, both P = 0,001, and value r = -0,490, P = 0,01, 7 ,'1:2 !:;trcJ.i.;,)htfol'ward statistlca.l pr'inciple denies th2r.t when v.:OII'ic!r.les sho',!.' simi tirne-l'ela.ted tl'ends B.nd (OnseqLH?nt i t i 1. Y impl iss Cl. c-:: . uscd re12,tic)Ilship, TI'''12 si.IYd.le:\\'i ty between tl't":onds cot,lld stem f )'om ct C'.)!'t'lfilon l'espollse to SI)me other V.':I .I' iable, I';'.. ho','"""V,?!"" >:::levt<:t tions '::;.bout the trend in one V <'I I' ar'' cOl"relctted th about thE.' 'b'end i.n th,? othe\,(s)., thE-'n a ca.uscd )'.?l.';:.ti..;:rrb;-Iip 1S rt'IOl'f":


Therefore, the time series must first be detrended and the transformed to varIatIons about the trend before they can be meaningfully analysed, 7 ,1:3 F'&. \'1.::12 I' Gl';:).hcl\rt ShO ..... 'E.,d that the dE,..(;rsnded d<:!.t;:( a. i'8.d:icCl.l Iy different picture} There was no correlation between volume and value data (r' = O,Ol'.:D, 5lAfJ9tO.'stin9 that th,,? simiL';Il'ity i.n their" tl'end'.; ovel' time 'Mas coincident;:.,]. and that no cal.ISi:).l relationshif-' e:d.sted them, lillS unexpected result substantially erode3 the hypothesis that ivory's value is the r'sCl.son for 'tne volume tr'aded and, ipso {acto, pl'imal'Y (.::luse of elephant decline, It is, how'2ver, eni' .l'ely in keeping vnth the that when the pl'i.ce ('If ivory fell ,n both absolute and tel'[IIS 1'.:"2S a.n,] 1971, ivol"y Pl'C,,:luct'i'i! kept 1'1Sin,;), 7,14 Parker & Graham'S evidence that the volume of ivory traded (produced) i.s not l',?l&.ted to the prevatlin,,;,) Pl'l'-I;? ,:,f tvol"f 'J')'?S to the ':l'W< lif the eoritention that ivory's value .:auses elephant and deserves more dE:t;:.\il.ed eXcwlinahon, R, t'I;:'\Ptin, 0, t"ibson B.nd C, Cpa.i.;) of the Zimba.r::.we Depaptment of National Parks & Wildlife Management kindly carried this out, Their findings are presented in Table 7 ,lS Column 1 in Table 4.4 presents a estlma.te of of iVOl'Y tl'.::\ded bE:t\,l,'een 1'350-197:=': fl'Ofil TCible 104 in PapkeI' (1'379) a.l'd bt?tl.!)een 1'379-19::::7 from Table 39 of the first draft of 'his report, There are defi.:ien.:ies in this as Table 104 i.n omrlnttt=:'d Indian ;;,nd Table of the first dl'aft. of this peport wa.'S Iflodified in this finEd. verSIon, Thepe was insuffi.:ient time wherein to retabulate and recalculate the data and, as ommission nor modification produce major change in the l'e'3ultinq ovel'vi.E'\'J, I pl"'?sent the 1.,IIKOl'l'e.:ted, The ivory vol!.mH? were rela.ted to time v .. i th the poJ .ynomial I'egi'ession given in .:,,:::4, The l'esidtE' lO)' each 'lee'.\" ()f the re>,;Jl'E"::;sion vh?1'8 then tabulated (column 2), Column :3 presents an index of ivory values derived from Pal'ker (197'j T.;:,bl.e 1(4) .:tnd tt-ns l'epor't (Table 2S), <:!djusted fOI' inflation \I,'iih MUV (Table 43), An exponential equati()n was created from Column :3 i nde:;< ::: ,:3 + (;, <;1151>, t ::: & 0 '':' 1900 bet: = '19:;::::Lt, fh,;:, residuals (deviations) about this were extracted and are presented in Column 4, 7, 'Ie The residuals of VOlLlfI)e th.:!n plotted &.qainst the of value, There was no correlation, A subset of the data 1970-1988 wel'e e::<:a,mineci sepa.l'ately ;:'.!lei th'2Y, too., no Vall...lE.'! indices WE:l'E: then plotted ,:;'.gai.nst both the pr'evious .:;'.nd y:.?2!.I"S vollAI'ft8si, No '::i(;pl1ficant cOl'I'elElti.(lnS elilel',;;ed, Tht'?'::;e provide no grounds for bel i.(?vi Ill;) th;:".t th,::! volume .:.f i VOl'Y tr'c:,ded (pI'c"jl":'.:ed) 15 caused by the prevailing values, or vice versa, that the value of Ivory is influenced by ti'''I';':' volwi'!e They supp w'\; P"'.i"kel"'5 ;} th.::>.'\; '::;il't'1i lal':< ty behJeE";)l U":e tl'ends 1'::; ttwoUQh a. COml'ilOl1 response to factor or other factors, 7,17 Parker & Graham also noted no correlation between detl'endecl MUV and volume data (r = -0,147) despite the similarity of their over time, HOWe",Iel', they de':;:(l'ibed <,I cor'r'elatlon I:,,::-tween valuE.' E'.nei r'lUV (I' :::: 0 ,723, p ::: 0,0(1) i'H"l'j thE'.t deviC'!.tions .s .bouttl-,ei.l' tl'i::md f(12,,\\'1'::; arE.' in syndwony, a (;:lu:;: .. :d l'sd21tionsr',ip highl.y l:ikel)' to thew,


, ... These findlngs have ramifications that wlll be exolained in due course and in much greater detail by Professor Pearce's study. 7 :3uffi:::e i.t 1'01' thi'::5 rE'pol't th'::I.C, if ;;1"'1121'12 aTe ('::tusctl ties betwef..?n ivory's value and elephant decline, they are either far more tenuous than might have been expected, or a great deal more subtle. In the context of the 6L;' yei::!l's, thE' l'ole o'f t't'c\de POW appe;;:'.l's f 81' {II01'e th.::,t of '::;ca.v".::nl.:;Jel' than a C'lU52.,] .. :.:\geni:. The mO'::it obvious V>J1' i:he I...ll1kno\iJll factor that produced the synchrony and correlation between trends in export V>Jlllfr'18S and iVOi'';' v.::tlues i.s the hl...Ifi'!<:HI deri'I091'el.phy thi.:l.t h2-.s such strong ';:;uPP'Jr t f \'011'1 K i. ngdc.n '5 evidence, b io lCII,;Ii c,,;:,l theo)",;, and >:mt'tll'lon-sense.


" ... I. =3 DISCC.lISSION 8 1 The evidence in the preceding two sections is but a small part of that assembled by Parker & Graham, Nevertheless it makes several important poi nt::;: (i) Elephant. i::; not a I'ecent phenomen()n, but bel ?n in progress for of this century, There was no great change in its dynclmi,:s in l'eCl?nt tirlh?S, Observers W<. wal'e of this saw the culminate near vertical of what has been an exponential process as something different to its more horizontal early phase. What has happened was predictable from trade evidence between 1950 and 1965, (ii) Elephant decline proceeded both when the bottom fell out of the ivory market in the Great Depression and when the Second World War stopped almost all trade, During these twa brlef periods the screen of value dropped away to show that other causes underlay the process, (iii) Competitive exclusion bv expanding humanity has, alone, caused the complete dir1ppearance of elephants in many parts of Africa, The lner in which increase has paralleled elephant det ine links the two compellingly and, on its own could for a great deal of what has h;:;..ppened, (iv) The dE'viati'Jns about th,:. -Gl'end in the value of :LVOl'Y do not correlate w1th deviations about the trend of the volume traded, denying a direct causal relationship between the I 8,2 Losses In range of the same order as that suffered by elephants have occurred in other large mammals which do not bear tusks, Of them, only the black rhino beal's a tl'ophy of c Jrllparable to ivory, If thel'e is a. common element to the higher range losses, it that the larger mammals with relatively c::i.""f,holic dleta.I'y r'equil'ements (1,e, unspeci2lljsed needs) have lost most ground, Through their lack of specialisations they had the l)lidest distribL!t.ions lIn 1 .325 And by this fact will. have a'...ltofl) .. :d;icc\lJ.y have competed with humans on a more general scale than, for example, those with limited distributions and particular niches, as with the forest dwelling bongo, this evidence has directed attention away from the br-Clade!' aspe.: t:-3 of dec l:i ne, rig th.3.t. tl'ophy Vc\hJ8 ',J,Ias the pl'ill"l.use of decline l,l/,iS not ()nly \ .. ,' I' on,] but l'cd.,,12d tJi"1r:2alisU.c h')pes ;3\bout the inf that CITE!:;, ,,:\ trade conv:ontion, CQI...!J.d brln9 to beeH' upon the lssue, 8,3 A further point of consequence concerns the reasons for fcdl!..H'>2 ill Africi:I., TI-il'ouqhorJlt this the point ha:s been the!.t (onsE !'vc.\tion cos,ts fl\Oill" Y, WithOLAt ft..tnds it c::tnnot F'ar'h?r (1":)::::4), Bell & Clarke (1985), Leader-WillIams & Albon (1988) and Parker & Braham (19::::::!) stl'essed i.t The ev;.dence thdt, in the 19805, a recurrent expenditure of at least US$200/km2 of conservation area is necessary to have a reasonahle chanc& of success and


tha.t fOI' C81't2l.inty mOI'e than this fllay be Evid.::?nce from Parker & Graham (1989) is reproduced in Table 45. 8.4 When actual annual expenditure on national parks in Africa (Parker & Graha.fl'I 19f:-::.n is I'eviel,l)ed .. it is immediately clppal'ent \.)hy po,,,,chin,] a.nd tresp<'<.5-5 al':;? so I'<=".mpant. Ta. kin.;:.! f:::I'2nya.'5 T'501V':i NEtt i.on'::t 1 in 'E:)<,:Hilple: this dry arid area has an opportunity cost of c. US$400/km2 p,B, to local pa"t':1l'<"dists (:::;avosnit:k pel's cOfl'l ln). Consequently. on occc.lsi.on dUI'in.;! past decade there have been )40,000 head of cattle grazing illicitly within its boundaries and some of their trails into the Park are 50 well defined as to be visible on satellite pictures, The authorities are too understaffed to prevent this illegal usage, and they are understaffed because they are underfunded, The corollary to this is that where parks are adequately funded, trespass and poaching is successfully prevented regardless of trade and market demand for wildlife commoditles, ::: .5 It is not within CITE:::; specifi.: 5phe1'e t.j advise F'al'ties on hol),' to conserve elephants or any other wild fauna and flora, However, is cleal'ly very mud-I in the Convention's int'21'E!st to point .:.ut tl-I'.? prima.l"l reason why so much conservation fails in Africa, If the national parks were adequc . tel.y fLAllded, PQachin'] IIli thin th'=I'i'1 wOl..Ald be an al I ess;::?r' and pI'oblt?ril, Re';..l,-"llatin'J tl'i':\de, f.;)l' all. that it m&.y be .;:.. useful prop to cQnservd.ti.on, is no SI..Jbstitutl? fOl' effe,:tive fundin, ] and steps in the field, Parties should be made aware of this. :::,6 All the foregoin'd does not deny that demcmd fOl' ivoI'Y is wi influence upon elephant decline. Hm>Jevel' .. it is in a bl'oader pel'spective and s!.Jggests tha.t 1T. 1\1<:\Y be as ffl!.Kh a. symptom of the htJtII.3.n condition S it i,:; a CcliJIse i.n its I'ight. G lven the vali..Jes of essent i.::.:.. 1,.:tui'ed ';)00015 that the developi.n';! \))ol'ld needs B.nd the declinin';::j va.lue of. the c\91'iO:L.IltUl'al c,)mmodities that. al'e .'!).lml:tst <:dl that Afl'ieo,. hcl.s to pay for them, it is hCll'dly SLIr'pI'isin'] tha.t people tUI'n to i\iOI")" It is one of the few ':OrllffI'Jdity's the cQntinent pI'odu.:es that has i ned or' even inc l'eased its PI...lI": ha.s i n'd pO\, ... el' re lEo. t i ve to MUV, ::;ma 11 wondel', then, it is used intensively in modenl times. The s2,lit;:nt pOInt, here, 15 not to argue over the degree tl) which trade contributes to decline ,jl' to be sidetl'ad::ed into dispLltin,,;) which I)f the fI'!':lny InflLlences is the greater, The issue that the Parties cannot ignore is that it is one of several. The founding premise that trade was the single causal influence is WI'On,;!. And e'::\1,.<::\11 y l,Iil'0l19 was the bel ief tha.t pl'jwiding trade \,IIas contl'olled all would be well. And in sequential order, it is therefore wrong when the tl'ad,:? i.s not contl'olled sd.ti.sf<::' .ctQr:dy, to then lay bIa.fIIe 1'01' fa.I' IHOI'\:? general in elephant conservation at the feet of CITES 8,10 While it is not the Convention' s responsibility to go beyond regulating international t rade, it is very much in the Secretariat's int\:!l'ests to point out tel its consti b....lEnt Parties' that thE:: dec 1. ine sho\.liil by elephants is both of long standing and a feature of many other species which don't pI'odl.Jt:i? i VQl'Y, It shQ!Jlld .::0.1.50 mi..'lke SI....ll'e theAt the la.o::l< (If conservation funding in Africa is well understood, fQr this is of greater importance than any other factor in African failures to CQnserve. Only when the Parties comprehend this are they likely to see their Convention's role in;:.. mOI'e i'ea.l.i.stic light, Thei.r failul'e to apPl'ecic!.te the fact th-,=,. t tl'<:tdE' is not the sale cause for elephant decline has led to unattainable hopes,


I ole 5S These al'e nQ',y f,.11':)'iJed by both um\'al'I'C>'\"'tted;ment and tJll')!EI.I'raryl;:?d blame when the goals haven't been attalned, :::,11 Yet <:,nothel' myth has to be attended tQ: the ,-:o\l,:ept or "sI...lstainabl,? offtake", This bandied about very much as a catch phrase, it is quite ;:112<:'.1' wh<'>.t is ffleant, in tel'ftlS Qf !liigi,t. be pI'a, .. ti aLy3us fel!.' P-8.I't,i es have come to teflf,s !,Iii th r'e:;; ty, st.:,,::k wIll pl'odLKe the sustaIned r',as to t.e (,)ns'.?rved. This will ':081: mQney, Is that money available? Ti1klng elephCo.nt p .ltAfI\'l1 '-'-1' a<; n Afl'i'.:C:l 1>n.!1 ( 1\' c:abl. .eptlant de e<: . tiS 1 t.s r: JI' .;:.1 y. The E:'ffL': r,s ,h :mly b\: d anged bv 1I1t:etlil';! t"" of r'I'-vent \1.;., trl 'I C1nd whtl on .? mdY cJl'gUP. d?taiL the be!;l': f8.ct s tt-,' .. s\.:bstantl<:.l PI'OP'.Jl'tl,_,n of the -uI'I'ent elephant 1'8SOUI'ce is wi1.1 dl.s-::poe \', Wh t pI" p' I +,iol1 1.5 sustcltl1clble 'iJill 1";?St on ind::vidu:d lC:ltic)lc can t.) i=1.=lplcd;e the (osts of iIl..:>.n:\I;Jing th'2rf, in.:1-SLlst2>.inable manner, \' (on1 ined and isolated populations he'.ve been reduced suffiCiently so that state exercise an monopoly: they have become analagQus to pipes that can be fenced al'ound and guar'd8d, Else'J!her'e, l'eg;;..rdl,.:ss c.f poU.cies. ivot">' keeps p')'.Jl'in .:;j (.I'.Xl:, \lot only to CITE:3' embal'ClssfI!ent. ttl-It equally tel those govel'nments il !ht) ha.v>:? tr'ied to de,:lCi.I'e quota:i and fail'?d. Once the C,':\'X:52S .\'\2 compl'ehended. then the catd-l pt"w8se >:,H1 t.e seen fo.' what j t is, :::,15 A',;)ail1st this b;:\.:.h;Jround ther'e is f.:::lI' less t.hC:lt CITE':; can do, t.han ha':::' ttl thel'to been hoped for', Yet chi s does not med.n th<:id; it s!,Qul.::! not do \!}h<='lt 11; can, For .::'.11 tha.t this filcl/ be linnted, the ConventiQIl .:an still pJ.B.y .::-, prdcti(al supporting role in elephant ronservation.


... I I 9 CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS ":',1 The po"icy pLJl'sued by CITES to control ivol'y tl'adlrll;i (lVE'!' the !='ClSt ten yeal'S has failed, This failul'e does not destroy the argument for contl'olling international trade in paw ivory as an aid to conserving the Af r ican elepliant, Howeve\' J tl'ade contl'oJ. S Ci:m never bl? j"iIOI'e thEm an ald ,:\lld will be a, waste of time if the mOl"e fundamE'l1tal issues .,-,itt-lin Afr'ica 9 ,re not tackled correctly and immediately, 9,2 The Sel:I'et<:11'i<:lt shOl,11d propose a n8W policy to the Pal' tie",; which avoids pa,st mistakes and misl:>::,l\'Iceptic1rls, In QI'de\' tQ

9,4 In simi12l.i' v.?in, 'ther'e is nothing th""G thl: !=':ecreta.riat can do to l'ectify Afdcan go:>vei'nments' abllities to cc.nserve, apart fr'mt) fllCi.kin9 L clear to the Parties that (1) the problem exists (ti) it has r()01;S in inad'quate finance, The likelyho.:)d of this beirll] i'esolved i.n the short term is remote, 9,5 The failure of the Parties to submlt worthwhlle annual reports inot something that is likely to be rectified qUlckly, In the foreseeable fUtU18 these i'eports are not going to become the mon'toring device once h')ped fOI', 9,6 The quotB. systerl) h:lsl1't wl.11'ked to delta bec<:tLlse linllts \lll?i'e ne'lP-l' set eithel' by the p,'oducel's f)l' the e'JnSLJrOl:::i'S, This is ll.)t to St:',y it (ould n.::.t Given the e,:clnomic withi,n Aft'i.:a, the ease v,tith ""'hleh l,\II)\'y ,:an be l)'loved aCI'I)SS bOl'del's, the difficulty of esti..\bll'Shill(1 ti'LiE: ol'igin, the predisposi titJn of sOIl'e g')vel'nments () pI'ovide co'!E'!' fOI' the e:::,poi't f)f otilel's' iV()I'Y, the abllit.y 'co impose qu:::'G.:i. limits 15 ft'II:'\'!? likely' t(l l' !;, .. ittl the COnSUII\f:I'S vllth the pl'.)ducf'I'S, If fc)\' no o-t.hel' l'eason, 81'2 weal thy n,::;..tions and better able t.) af iOI'd the ,:osts of enf Ol'C8111l:::nt, 9,7 The pel'mit veriflcation system 1n Lausanne can nwt be modified lnto an effe.:tive bl'ake bec8t.1sl? it is based 011 8, fundamental Thc' issuing author1ties are best placed dnd equipped to verify the ty of that they Issue, If they fail to do promptly dnd effi':lf'ntl for "ny reason, Intcl'posing ann hel' bureaL,:ratic link them i:\ :K' th" r:,-\':t loes not. l'l:. olve b ;,11: ploblem. As we have sefm very _I ,ht l.oence, they systelu may h::we ']-:'tt l:i'ed d",t,:')J "1"' the IVQI'Y that ... ",s 'E!l'lfied' but ..... dS actually st:.; ing l.;?ss I I,"ha t \!<:..-" rlP")'/ nq -=:,l.:! V.!' It('l' rl';l 1S 1 ntt::gl'a 1 to cl,'1\' co tl' The II: with i:h1.s 12S bpen tackled OV"-:l' the past tell yeal":; is d ':ocallddl. Y'2t, '_' :.r'r'e.: tH)\1 j.s sirllple _liOlJ0h If (l) fundIng is made dV(. i and (li) thr.: ':Ol'l'ect. ' employ.:-d to do the \!1()I'k, 9,9 Tn sl."::; el.::'pilcmts,;:ude IInt.i>:,lh.l pal'ks; 8,i'1d pl'ob.lbl y Inany \d thi n t,Wfit, are economically It should accert that annual reporting anJ p'=l'fftit \ie"lfll:.::\tJ:JllS dr'::? n("it w(),'th TI,I,'o elemtmts ._)f pc.,::;t POll',,:' can. however, be and made to work: quotas and monitoring, ':'i,IO Taklll':;) quotas fl.l'st: as pl'oducer" 'quotas' have nQt'worked 1;.) !(,he system CQLlld switch to con<::=,umel' Unr:iel' thei l' natiol1cd le';Ji ':;1,::., t ions, all the rnaj 01' i VOl";! il'lipcn' t i Par' ties CClI...Ild i'estl' .i,e t 1'<'+.W ivory impoI' ts <:<,nd set a.rflc.tmts tha'l; ca,nnl:.t be rft(;.d.i. f ied l.Apl,I}al'd CI,t shol't nl:.tlc'2 to <1.l,:c.:.Tflod,:.=tte a pl'Cn:icKei' SI.AI,.;)t:, Spec i f leall y, the COn'SI..l[I'I';H' P,=tl'ties could B.ct in caucus and de'tel'mirh? <:\ JOInt Clvel'all 2,flnl.l"d lirflit to the amount of 1.\'01">, tha. t they ""Iill permit to be i.mpOI"-l;'E:'.j i.nto thei.I' l::()1.mtl'i.s':i, This would be most easily done if all raw ivory out of Afrlca was sent to a sIn.]l>':! and i.rilpC!'1;'::J of !""HI! ivor":! i.nt,) con-",UI'II(:I' Cl)ull'ti'ii::!c. ,-!")t.!j(j only cnrfl,: Tr'on sneclficd


'.:),11 The mann,.::\' in which i vOf'y was tl'aded ')'.1121' the pEt.sf; tW() ,:entUl'iE's and until very recent times is not out of keeping with this suggestion, Bombay, London and Antwerp were, successively, the world's major ivory marts, of Africa's ivory went onto their auttion floors, and it was from thence iV01'Y USE-'j'S Bcquil'ed theil' supplies, If a slngle a.ul.:ti()f1 flool' e.staqlished in, say, HOll9 Kong (be.:ause that is whel'e the fftBjodty of '::l'c!.ftsmen al'e) un de I' th>" aeg.s 'Jf a boal'd on \JJhi,.:h pI'oducer'::i, consumel'S and S':.":l'eti:ll'iat wel'e l'epl'esented, and if the c,nly I'aw iV01'Y all,)wed into COnSIJll)er .:ountPies had to be from t.hat 1'1001', then it follows that it would be the only place that Africa could lawfully export ivury to, The multifal'i,)u:.i. l:'g.;).1, internathmz,l -!.;l'affi>: in which (.if\'ican i vor'y passes thpough ot.hel' err I'ep.;ts, and which i:; 5') di f f icul t. t(1 Iu::ep track of, would cease, 9112 With the estabUshmellt I:.f a single 1.Vi)I'y ;:'.uetion floor' c.s the only source of paw Ivory for the main ivory consumers, a limit could be set on the amQunt of iV01'y the,t would be a':I:epted t)nto i1; annually, This \A'ol..Jl,j be an enf or'ceable quota in the str ie t sense, ?) f LIl'thel' lO'.;Iica l. res tl' ir: t i,::;n would be that the only ivory accepted onto the floor would be that actually dispa.tched by African At.rthol'ities, If fil'rus and wished tc, tl'aoe in iV'Jpy, they WOGlld ,)n1/ be able tQ do so thl'ou,;!h the t1am:lgement Authol' 1 ty of '\;he ":ountr'y f 1't)1Yl I!Jhich th<::y ",}ere e;.::pol' t i ng In ef f eo: t, ttl i S \I}OU 1 d totCill y e 11m i na te 1e'Ja 1 pd va. te ccinH'iei'C i a 1-e)(pol'ts of "lVIJI'y fl'om Afl'ica (othel', pel'haps, than fol' tl' It would eli"linate all need to 'vedfy' Afl'icc.n pel'lllits fol' thaI'S would only be a few Issued ye<.w and these would be of vel'y shol't life and ,:)n1 y of suf f ic ient dLH'ation to ,=over At I'i,:an govel'l1rnent to allC tion flo!)I' fl)ovements, And i' the iV01'y was Dubll.:ly, not only would the AfpicBn govel'nments get the highest pl'evBlling prices, but they would get them open! y in a fl)annel' that \'JQuld gl'eaU Y ,-ompl icate ,ji v::?l'ti ng tnt:: money into othel' channels, The greatest possible returns from ivory would 9'J pub li ': 1 y and d' I'eo: tl y back t.) the A l'icil.n gov'I'nment::; f pom ""shieh th? ivory origlnated, 9,13 Afl'ican would not be ipee to send ivory to the auction as and wh:.:m they e.c qLl i I'ed the .: ':>I\)mo, i ty, I 119 tead, they w()Ld. d ha to app 1. y t(, the c..;.f..Jctio::on bN:,i'd for a po\'tir.m of the qw)ta apPI'opl'iate to the st,;:,,:!:: they had in h&.nd. In many i nstCtJl':es this r,aiqht ne.:ess i. tate them h,:d.ding thei r' IVOI'Y until a qlAClta 'slot' was in.:>, following real', In this w;:,y, the sY':5tem would iVQI'y ouHlo\>}5, Incontinent ao:cumulati;)n of ivoI"/ would find 110 legal r.:hcmnel TOI' equally in,:ontinent disp.:>saJ, 9,14 The idea of demandil'JI;j that all I'aw iVQI'l imp'::Jl'ts st:=m fl'om d. sin.]le SQLII'o::e -the 8u(.ti.:m flool' 11()"t. of (OLlr,e stop ilh:!';Ie:\l tl' in 1 V'JI'Y, H()WeVel', it would make the disti.n:tHHl 1e9<:1.1 a.nd i much eaSlel' than It curl'ently is, by doing away with a gl'eat deal of the 'grey area' in which ivory Africa on dubiQUS permits in the hands of ':'pportunistic ttQthing that can be ck'ne Gilldel' CITEt; \1.'111 eli.minate the wh()lly illegal trade, However, when Illegal consIgnments of ivol'Y wei'e and sej.zed, as IJJ(,uld b8 th::? >:ase fl'om time to time, they sh';"'..Ild be tl) the (ilK'"ionfl')OI' ..... 1101 ,Qld a.s p;::l'i; of the year's quot:, This would mean the Dro rata reduction of legal lvOl'y ctcceptt"=-,j ir thi":t y'al' -fl''')IH c",untl'Y frofll '..:h).:!, t:,E) i'lor'}, 1\ ',v I 1<


' \ \ } WlJ 1 oj 1 vOI'y flAndS C'I something of a penalty on who allowerl the illegal out their l:oLmtl'ies and I It PP1'>:>aches Afl'' fund ble level. The quota system must take thic lnto c.:ccount and 11.;:)t stand oS a bl.)tk to hading the unsust .. :..n.? le offtake to Africa's gl'I?atest advantage, If it iV01'Y wlll siruply be traded I' it III pre.ise11 the same manner as it has divel'ted j"oulld the bal'I'iel's of the pa'5t de.:ctde, And l.f thls chances of a reguldted 'fl,;ll'e-'olJt' that changes decline into the lOll'] tel'fol sustainable output of lvory, wl11 be 9,17 If ideas have merlt. then they should be discussed and agreed 'JI' moddle y i e Ql1vention' fl'l/,; r E..ephant GI'I)UP and then Cll'.:ulated .f<")'"\' al'ties b'f)re then le'd, Conftrtnce, This calls fOl' s.rt Q t t, bean 9 in mlnd tha' lS 1 first hE '3,18 'Sf I d I t tu us tlJm h t 2.< o,onit.r::>r nq lati:l c;houl1 the .-eni:\'oo'llsed tf'"'te P t 1 L th_if pl'lftLI"f -()ll' I! >V. be un.3.(cc-'t. bIt? ,. J


I I i I I I I Eo REFERE tCES Anon 192[,-1965 AnmJaJ. l'epOl"ts I::.f the l;:8. Allocatlon .)f fOl' conS81'V ticn. Nature Vol 33G, 5:33-535 Martin E.8, 1984a Zimbabwe's ivory carVIng industry, Bulletin IV (2), WTf1\) CCt.mbl'i dge, Martin f.B, 1984b The ivorY industry in Botswana, African Elephant & Rhino Group Newsletter IUCr. Martin E,8, 1985a South Africa's ivory carv'ng industry. lraffic Bulletin VII ll) WTMU. Cambridge, Martin E,8, 19J5b Malclwi's ivory carving industry. Pachyderm (5) IUCN, ivtartin E,B, 19:36 The IV01'y ,:arving '::If 2amb}..:.:., Pachyderm (7) rueN, Martin R" Caldwell J ,R. & Bal'zdo J ,G, 19:6 Afl'ican elephants CITES the ivory trade. CITES, L USall118, Switzerland. Parker I.S,e, 1970 The East Afl iean ivory trade 1925-19S9. Consultant report to game (Pty) Ltd, Parker I,$,C, 1979 The iVD"Y trade, Consultant report to the U,S.Fish & Wildlife Servic Washlngton D.C, Parker I,S,C, 1986 An analysis of six tonnes of lvory in Antwerp, Consultant report to the Secretary General of CITES, Lausannt:.., Parker l,S,C, & Graham A,D. in prep, Elephant decline: a1 hypothesis, PilgriUit T, & Weste)'n C, 1986 I1Ull'tln';;J Oil Mrican elephants from tusks in the trade, J, Applied Eccl.


. 1 1 REFERENCES: Bell, R,H,V. 1982. The 'of sOlI nutrient avaIlabilIty on community structur in African In Ecology Tl")pical pp 193-216, fde E:,.J ,Huntley Clnd 8,H,W lkel'. Sprlnge,' Verlag, Barbn 8ell, R,H.V "-, Clarke J. 19(-:5 C nserva.lOn and Wildlife 11cmi:tgement in Afri,:a: pI'OC. 0 a Workshop 'Jrganls d by the U.:3. Pea,.:e Corps Kasungu National Park, Male""i. Ed R,H.V. Bell & E. McShal112--Ca.huzi, U,S.Peace Corp, Wash'ngton D.C, 8rooks, A,e. & I,D. 1952 Pa t nd pr sent status of lephant i Ugand-, J, Wildl. ?6, 38-50. A, & Douglas-H milt.:on I, 1987, .AfrlcBn elephan'j data.base proJect: final report, Grid c-se Study SerIes No 2 UNEP, Nairobi Caugh I ey G. 1979. IN il d 1 if e manag n ent and the dynarlll C S 0 f 1...Il!I;)U 1 a e oopulations, In ADplled 8101ogy, Vol 1, Ed T,H,eoaker, Acade ic: PrE-55, Londa::m, pp 183-24, Coe, I'1,J" Cuofiling, D.H, Z' Phillipson, J. 1976, and production of large A 'rican herbivores In re atlon to rainfall and primary oroduction, Dec 10g1 (Berl,) 52 CLlmming .. u '981 Th rn nager lit of eleph nt 811d othel' la.rge in Zimbabwe, In PI'oblems 111 manaqemt!nt of locally wild anImals, Eds, P.A,Jewell, S.Hot & O,Hart, Pr '6 I N w pp 91-118, Cumming, a,H,M, & p, 19R4 The status and ronservatian of Afrlca's elephants and rhinos, rUCN. 61 n1 Q,)uglas-HamlltQn. I, 1979, Th Elephant aC'iaon plan, IIJCN, 6J and., SWl tzel' land ECl;:osystems 1982, TSflVO T'12' i'JI1.1 1 ::-nd use study. Reper t to the G _1'111l)E:nt of Kenya., :;.IOpp I-kCl) i:i.n G, 1Q60, The competitive exclusion Fden.:e 1:31, 1291-1297, Kelly, N, 1978, In wildest Afrlca: the preservation of game in Kenya 1895-1933, Ph,D, Thesis, Simon Fraser UnIversity. Canada, J, 1977, 1979, 1ge? & 1982b. East African Vols d. { if! III', lIfO, Ai.'1dt?ftu,_ F'1'C5S, London,


I I R,I'1" P 1'1<. I', I,S,C, JOhnstol1, R,C.B, 975 E18pr-m;'3 .21.11. thelr habitats, Oxford Unlver lty Press, Leadel'" IAhlliafilS N" & -:,0, 1988. Allocation I f I'. taOl.1rr'f'S fc)\"' conservatlon, Natul" Vol t1al'tin, H, 1985, Est blishrr I t of Afr n lVO\'Y a_sociated control u es. A rep r S cl'et l'iat, fyp st.r pt 11 pp, Xpol't quat sand o the Cl ES t1aYI' E, 96.;,. Anlo)al p c 1 Cambr Hiye. t1a .... and IJ, ,A, volutlon, Harvard Univ Press, MOlgan, W,T,W, & S:haffe ; N.M. 1966, Popula .10n of ; densitl nl dl <:itr ibuti :>0, 0 f 0 d 1)1 1 ty Pr 'S I N j robl 1. S C 1979 The 1 VOl"" the Intel'ior I UI ted 900pp Report 0 th Department of Govt, W sh' "Jt.:>n D,C. mimeD /-"' .. -' Pal'ke', ,S.C 1984, R infc\ll, 01. y, elephants' nd men, In Pl'C'C. of n rnt rnatH)l1 1 SymposlUm on th-= E) tlOII A t"l'n<:Oltlve Ed, p. J. mdy, En Wlldl1f(> TIl..! t, JohCll1leibLlrg, Parker I S.C & Graham, A,D, 1913'. 'I, el ph nt'S a d I.ompeti:tion. pr C f a syl pos.LUm Zoo S c Lond 9thl h May 1 J:::8. Pedel, D G 1987. Ltv stock and ildlife popul tiol1 dlst ibuti,:ms in I' labon to aJ'iditv and hUl1an populatlon 111 Kenya, JOLll'nal of R ng M n 40 (1) 67-71. St w rt, D,R. & Stewart J, 1963. lhe dl tribution of :-..... roe lar .;)9 mam,aIs ln Kenya, .r, E,A.Na ,Hl:>t.!;)oC XXIV --l[ll)i'l V Ijo n P.J, 19 7. St tU5 and past and present distrlbution of elephant'S n t e Kd,)k veld, .... outh We At rls..:a/Namibia., S.Afr,J,Zool, 22(4) 247-L 7,

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