Citation
A model of conceptual structure mapping

Material Information

Title:
A model of conceptual structure mapping
Creator:
Belyayeva, Dina, 1967-
Publication Date:
Language:
English
Physical Description:
v, 132 leaves : ill. ; 29 cm.

Subjects

Subjects / Keywords:
Asymmetry ( jstor )
Cognition ( jstor )
Cognitive models ( jstor )
Cognitive psychology ( jstor )
Conceptual structures ( jstor )
Language translation ( jstor )
Linguistics ( jstor )
Memory ( jstor )
Modeling ( jstor )
Words ( jstor )
Dissertations, Academic -- Linguistics -- UF ( lcsh )
Linguistics thesis, Ph. D ( lcsh )
Genre:
bibliography ( marcgt )
non-fiction ( marcgt )

Notes

Thesis:
Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Florida, 1997.
Bibliography:
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 124-131).
General Note:
Typescript.
General Note:
Vita.
Statement of Responsibility:
by Dina Belyayeva.

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Holding Location:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
Copyright [name of dissertation author]. Permission granted to the University of Florida to digitize, archive and distribute this item for non-profit research and educational purposes. Any reuse of this item in excess of fair use or other copyright exemptions requires permission of the copyright holder.
Resource Identifier:
028002193 ( ALEPH )
37823823 ( OCLC )

Downloads

This item has the following downloads:


Full Text










A MODEL OF CONCEPTUAL STRUCTURE MAPPING


By

DINA BELYAYEVA














A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL
OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT
OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF
DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY

UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA































Copyright 1997

by

Dina Belyayeva














ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

I would like thank Ira Fischler for many helpful discussions and constructive

suggestions. Special thanks are extended to William J. Sullivan, whose academic

guidance and friendship was instrumental in completion of this research study.

Furthermore, I thank J. P. Chalarca and Laura Cunningham for help in running

Experiment 4.














TABLE OF CONTENTS

page


ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ........................................ .............................. ii

A B STR A C T ....................................................................... ......................................... v

CHAPTERS

1 IN TR O D U C TIO N ............................. ..... ..............................................................1

2 BILINGUAL MEMORY RESEARCH....................... .........................2
Developmental Changes in Bilingual Representation ................................................ 12
Concept Acquisition and Representation................................. .......................... 14
Language-Specific Organization and Bilingual Representation........................ ..15

3 THE MODEL OF CONCEPTUAL STRUCTURE MAPPING................................16
The Structural Assum ption.................................................... ..........................17
The Developmental Assumption......................... ...... ......................26
Conceptual Structure Mapping ..........................................................28

4 EXPERIMENT 1: MODIFIED REPLICATION OF THE SHOLL ET AL.
(1995) STUDY .......................... ...................... ..............................31
M ethod .........................................................................................................................35
R esults............................................................................... .....................................38
D discussion ............................. .............................................................................44

5 EXPERIMENT 2: REPLICATION OF THE SHOLL ET AL. (1995) STUDY.........49
M ethod .................................................................................... .. ............................. 50
R esu lts............................................................................... .....................................52
D iscu ssion ................................................................................ ..............................57

6 RELATION ASSESSMENT: A TEST OF THE PROPOSED MODEL OF
CONCEPTUAL STRUCTURE MAPPING.................................................. 62
Experiment 3 .......................................................64
E xperim ent 4 ........................................................................ ..................................73
E xperim ent 5 ......................................................................... ................................. 79

7 GENERAL DISCUSSION .................. .............. ...................................91





iv


8 IMPLICATIONS FOR RESEARCH IN BILINGUALISM................................99

9 CONCLUSION...................... ..................................................................... 103

A PPEN D IX ............................ .................................................................... ................104

REFERENCES ... ................. ...................................................................124

BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH .............................................................132













Abstract of Dissertation Presented to the Graduate School
of the University of Florida in Partial Fulfillment of the
Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy

A MODEL OF CONCEPTUAL STRUCTURE MAPPING

By

Dina Belyayeva

August, 1997


Chairman: William J. Sullivan
Major Department: Linguistics

The present dissertation proposes a model of bilingual memory. The notion of

conceptual structure is introduced to denote a manner in which conceptual knowledge is

lexically represented in a language. The major claim here is that bilingual lexical and

conceptual processing is accomplished via conceptual structure mapping. The model

assumes that production patterns of a bilingual speaker are largely affected by the degree

of (in)compatibility between conceptual structures of two languages. A series of

experiments were designed and conducted in order to obtain supporting empirical

evidence. A discussion of the results along with a review of prior experimental work

show evidence for the position advanced here. In addition, it is argued that the model

proposed here can correct inadequacies observed in other models of bilingual memory

and that it can be extended to account for other issues of language production and

development.













CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION

Bilingualism has emerged as a discrete field. It developed out of studies in

cognitive psychology and linguistics investigating the relationship between language and

cognition. The growing body of knowledge on bilingualism has influenced the evolution

of models designed to capture the intricate symbiosis of lexical and conceptual

representations in the memories of bilingual speakers. Despite the increasing descriptive

accuracy achieved by some models, a number of problems remain unresolved. Transfer,

code-switching, and developmental issues are among them. The resolution to the problem

may lie in a different approach to representation. This work proposes a model of

conceptual structure mapping which will be reviewed as a dynamic approach to

representational issues. The model provides an account for all existing empirical evidence

and will accommodate the remaining problems, as well.












I In the literature the term 'bilingual' is applied in a very broad sense. It has been used to
refer to balanced/fluent bilingual speakers as well as to novice second language learners.
The term is also used to refer to individuals who speak more than one language.













CHAPTER 2
BILINGUAL MEMORY RESEARCH

Bilingual research literature offers a number of different approaches to the issues

of bilingual production and development. The largest group of studies on bilingualism

focuses on the issues of storage and representation. The central argument of the models

addressing storage issues is whether conceptual information is represented in language-

specific or amodal way. In particular, the studies have been trying to establish whether a

bilingual's two lexicons are represented in separate memory stores (the separate code

view) or whether they are represented in a single memory system (the common code

view). The extensive experimental research produced the data which was often

interpreted as supporting one view or the other (McCormack, 1977; Kirsner, Smith,

Lockhart, King, & Jain, 1984; Scarborough, Gerard, & Cortese 1984; Tzelgov & Eben-

Ezra 1992; Williams 1994). Durgonoglu and Roediger (1987) pointed out that the studies

often neglected the conditions under which language-dependent and language-

independent processes may influence the results. A series of experiments was conducted

to demonstrate that different types of tasks produce results that lead to different

conclusions. Specifically, data-driven tasks like word fragment completion and repetition

priming produce results that draw attention to the surface characteristics of the stimuli

and support the separate code view. Conversely, conceptually-driven tasks like free recall








and translation draw attention to the conceptual content of the stimulus and generally

produce results that support the common code view.

Heredia, Weldon and McLaughlin (1991) provided additional evidence that data-

driven tasks generate results supporting the separate code view whereas results obtained

in conceptually- driven tasks provide support for the common code view of bilingual

memory. Their first experiment replicated the findings ofDurgonoglu and Roediger

(1987). In the second experiment the generality of the previous findings was extended

even further. It was suggested that conceptual information might aid performance on a

data-driven task if it could be used to retrieve perceptual properties of the stimuli studied.

Therefore, the participants were given explicit instructions to use English fragments as

cues to generate Spanish translations after viewing monolingual and bilingual word lists.

Conceptual information, and as predicted the test instructions required the use of both

perceptual and conceptual information, the performance was reported to be comparable in

both within- and between-language conditions. The findings reported by Smith (1991)

provided additional evidence that it is possible to obtain cross-language facilitation in

traditional data-driven tasks. The absence of cross-language facilitation on word-fragment

completion tasks reported by Durgonoglu and Roediger (1987) and Watkins and

Peynircioglu (1983) was due to absence of semantic involvement at study, where Spanish

and English stimuli (in the former study) and Turkish and English stimuli (in the latter

study) were presented as random word lists. Smith (1991) used English and French

sentences that created associations with the stimuli presented as fragments during a word-

fragment completion task. The sentences did not use overt word forms, thus eliminating

the possibility of reliance on perceptual properties of the material studied. The results








demonstrated that sentence processing at study leads to semantic involvement at test and

hence to cross- language facilitation in a word-fragment completion task. As concluded in

Tobossi (1988), Smith (1991) and Hummel (1993), experiments using single-word

stimuli are more likely to demonstrate results supporting the independent view of

bilingual memory representation, because the study and test demand attention to surface

characteristics. On the contrary, use of contextually-embedded stimuli is more likely to

support the interdependent view, because contextual activation involves more abstract

levels of representation. Along these lines, it is important to note that availability of

contextual information should be regarded an important factor by the studies addressing

issues of lexical and conceptual access. Contextual embedding of lexical stimuli helps to

discriminate between different senses that may be activated upon presentation of a lexical

form, and to channel activation in a particular direction. The use of contextual

information is of particular importance for bilingual studies, since it provides a means to

distinguish between inter- and intralanguage organizational patterns.

The two competing views have been replaced by models that consider hierarchical

organization of conceptual and lexical representations in bilinguals. The dual-coding

theory (Paivio & Desrochers, 1980) was put forth to account for the discrepancies

between data-driven and conceptually-driven tasks in terms of variability of encoding

(Aredt & Gentile, 1986; Paivio, Clark, & Lambert, 1988; Vaid, 1988). Two systems

(verbal/symbol and conceptual/imagery) were proposed to be connected, yet independent.

On the basis of the findings that pictures were categorized faster than both L1 and L2

words, it was concluded that one system could be sometimes activated without the other.

That is, in picture categorization tasks conceptual representations could be accessed via








visual stimuli. Although the verbal system could be also activated, its activation was not a

necessary condition for conceptual access. The theory however has been criticized on the

grounds that it reduces conceptual representations to visual and verbal codes (Potter &

Kroll, 1987).

The hierarchical models proposed by Paradis (1981), Potter, So, Von Eckardt, and

Feldman (1984), and Snodgrass (1984, 1993) posit separate stores in which the conscious

representations of verbal and pictorial stimuli occur. Current research in the area of

bilingual memory has been centered around the two plausible models proposed by Potter,

So, van Eckardt, & Feldman (1984). The models differ in the connections they assume

between the conceptual and the lexical levels (see Figure 2-1). The word


Word Association Model


Concept Mediation Model


Figure 2-1. Word association and concept mediation models as proposed by Potter,
So, van Eckardt, & Feldman (1984).








association model postulates that the word meanings in the second language (L2) are

accessed via the bilingual's dominant language (LI), which is directly connected to the

conceptual store. The concept-mediation model assumes a direct connection between the

L2 lexical store and the conceptual store. The comparison of translation to picture naming

in L2 was viewed as a critical test for the models proposed. According to the word

association model, translation should take less time than picture naming in L2. That is, in

translation tasks, bilinguals need only associate the words stored in two different lexical

systems, whereas in picture naming tasks bilinguals first access conceptual storage,

mediate the concept with a lexical representation in LI and only then associate the L1

lexical item with a translation equivalent in L2. According to the concept mediation

model, both tasks require access to a conceptual level; therefore translation from L1 to L2

should take approximately the same amount of time as picture naming. 1

The experimental studies demonstrated a dissociation in performance of less and

more fluent bilinguals (Potter, So, von Eckhardt, & Feldman 1984, Kroll & Curley 1988,

Chen & Leung 1989). There was an asymmetry in translation latencies with longer times

taken to translate from L1 to L2, and significantly shorter translation times in the opposite

direction. As in picture naming studies, the differences between L2 and L output were

reported to be smaller for more fluent bilinguals than for less fluent bilinguals. Hence,

models were proposed to capture successive developmental stages in bilingual lexical

organization. The word association model was proposed to describe processing patterns

of novice bilinguals, who presumably mediate between the conceptual store and the L2



1 The latter prediction may be true if pictures cannot directly elicit their names.








lexical store via LI lexical representations. Conversely, the concept mediation model

supposedly reflects the ability of expert bilinguals to access concepts from either lexical

store directly. Some findings, however, were not consistent with the proposed dichotomy.

Significant asymmetries were reported even for very fluent bilinguals (Keatly, Spinks, &

Gelder 1990), whereas according to the models, fluent bilinguals should exhibit less

asymmetry in their production. De Groot and Nas (1991) reported equality of associative-

priming effects within and between languages, even though the overall response time

latencies obtained for L2 primes were larger than the latencies obtained for LI primes.

To accommodate the contradictory evidence, it was suggested that the relationship

between the word association and concept mediation stages in a bilingual speaker's

development is overlapping rather than strictly dichotomous (Kroll, 1993). The two

models have been amalgamated in the mixed model (Potter, Kroll, Yachzel, Carpenter, &

Sherman, 1986) that posits one common conceptual and a number of separate lexical

stores. The lexical stores are related indirectly via the common conceptual store and

directly at the lexical level of representation. It has been demonstrated that such a

configuration successfully accounts for the results which reveal both word association

and concept mediation processing patterns at the same level of bilingual proficiency.

The mixed model was later developed into the revised hierarchical model (Kroll

1993, Kroll & Stewart 1994, Dufour & Kroll 1995), which was proposed to deal with a

wider range of bilingual data. Specifically, it was designed to accommodate the

asymmetric patterns associated with bi-directional mediation between a bilingual's

lexical stores. The asymmetric patterns of the results have been associated with a

representational configuration which assumes that languages are connected via the








conceptual level when the direction of mediation proceeds from LI to L2, and that only

the lexical level is employed in the opposite direction (see Figure 2-2).


Figure 2-2. The revised hierarchical model as outlined in Kroll (1993), Kroll and
Stewart (1994), and Dufour and Kroll (1995). The thick solid lines stand for very
strong connections, and the dashed lines stand for weaker connections.



Kroll and Stewart (1994) employed transfer-appropriate processing logic to test

the representation proposed in the revised hierarchical model. According to the principle

of transfer-appropriate processing, memory performance is a function of the overlap

between study and test operations. In other words, performance on the test depends on the

overlap between the types of processing required by the encoding condition and the test

(Morris, Bransford, & Franks, 1977; Roediger & Blaxton, 1987). Since mediations from

L1 to L2 and from L2 to L1 were hypothesized to engage different activation patterns,







translations from L1 to L2 and from L2 to L1 were used to test the hypothesis.

Categorized and randomized word lists in L1 and L2 were used as stimuli. Categorized

lists were expected to draw attention to conceptual properties of the stimulus material,

and consequently, create interference in the tasks that require conceptual activation

(picture naming and translation from L1 to L2). On the other hand lexical-level

processing was predicted to have no effect on the tasks that do not require access to the

conceptual level of representation (word naming and translation from L2 to L1). L -to-L2

and L2-to-L1 translations of randomized and categorized lists were compared to word

and picture naming in L and L2. The findings supported the prediction that the two

directions of translation engage different interlanguage connections. Category

interference in bilingual translation was reported only when translation was performed in

the direction from L1 to L2. The results obtained from the incidental recall task also

agreed with the principle of transfer-appropriate processing. That is, the direction of

translation that was hypothesized to require concept mediation (Ll>L2) had a category

interference effect in production but a category advantage in recall. The direction of

translation that was hypothesized to be lexically mediated (L2 >L 1) was insensitive to the

effects of semantic context in production and also in recall.

The directional asymmetry was also demonstrated in semantic priming

experiments. Priming effects reported were significantly greater when primes were

presented in LI and targets were presented in L2 than when primes were presented in L2

and targets were presented in L1 (Neely, Keefe, & Ross 1989, Altarriba 1992, Kroll &

Sholl 1992). It was suggested that similar to Ll-to-L2 translation L1 priming of L2








targets initiates the interlanguage connection in the direction from LI to L2 and therefore

should result in greater semantic activation than L2 priming of L1 targets.

Additional evidence for the representational organization proposed in the revised

hierarchical model was provided by Sholl, Sankaranarayanan, and Kroll (1995). The

study they conducted examined the effects of prior picture naming on translation

latencies. According to the transfer-appropriate processing principle and the

representational organization proposed in the model, prior picture naming should affect

translation latencies only in the L -to-L2 direction, because only this direction was

proposed to require concept mediation and, therefore, only this direction could share the

same underlying semantic processes as picture naming. The results confirmed the

prediction. The significant facilitation in translation from L1 to L2 following picture

naming in both L1 and L2 and the absence of transfer in the opposite direction were

interpreted as evidence for the dissociation between the types of processes engaged, given

the direction of mediation between L and L2 bilinguals' lexical stores.

Since the retrieval of picture names did not affect translation times in the L2-to-

L1 direction, it was also proposed that the locus of transfer was not at the level of

retrieving the lexical form. The latter inference, however, is not fully supported by the

experimental data. The magnitude of facilitation in L -to-L2 translation was significantly

greater for the stimuli previously named in L2 than for the stimuli named in L1. The

observed difference cannot be explained in terms of greater conceptual activation during

L2 picture naming, because picture stimuli should produce equal conceptual facilitation,

regardless of the target language in the naming task. According to the principle of

transfer-appropriate processing and the representational organization of the revised








hierarchical model, both L and L2 picture naming should produce equal facilitation in

the task that requires activation at the conceptual level of processing, i.e. in translation

from L1 to L2. The data, however, suggests that some lexical activation is possible in the

direction from LI to L2. To equalize contradictory evidence, one could suggest that

shorter translation times following L2 picture naming could result from long-lag

repetition effects. In other words, accelerated production of L2 lexical forms in L -to-L2

translation tasks could be influenced by prior articulation of these forms in the L2 naming

task. This proposal does not contradict the mixture assumption of processing (Cabeza,

1995). The mixture assumption says that conceptual and perceptual processing should be

viewed in terms of two distinct continue that do not necessarily trade off against each

other (Roediger & McDermott, 1993). Wheeldon and Monsel (1992), suggested that

long-lasting facilitation could be a results of repeated exercise of the mapping from

meaning to phonological form. As demonstrated in the experiments conducted by

Monsell, Matthews, and Miller (1992), prior production of word forms in the naming task

and in response to a definition effected long-lasting repetition priming in the picture

naming task. This account of differential facilitation in Ll-to-L2 translation following L1

and L2 picture naming is compatible with the main assumptions of both the revised

hierarchical model and the transfer-appropriate processing principle, but it does not

explain why such an effect was not present in the L2-to-L direction. The discrepancies

found between the data and some essential theoretical assumptions cannot be resolved

within the representational organization of the revised hierarchical model.








Developmental Changes in Bilingual Representation


The studies that compare the performance of less and more fluent bilinguals in

picture naming, word translation, and lexical decision tasks reported a dissociation in the

response patterns of the less and more fluent bilingual speakers (Chen & Leung, 1989;

Kroll & Curley 1988; Altarriba, 1992). Less fluent speakers exhibited significant

asymmetries in response time latencies. Conversely, response time asymmetries obtained

from more fluent bilinguals were not significant. Similarly, more fluent bilinguals

demonstrated comparable priming effects in both directions (De Groot & Nas, 1991).

Dufour and Kroll (1995) proposed that there is a developmental shift in the way

bilinguals mediate between their two languages. As bilinguals become more proficient,

they develop more conceptual nodes that can be activated by both L1 and L2 lexical

items, in which case they gradually switch to conceptual mediation in both directions (see

Figure 1-2). The developmental proposal was expected to demonstrate a degree of

empirical adequacy, since it was developed from translation latency data obtained from

less and more fluent bilinguals in several previous studies (Potter et al. 1984, Kroll and

Curley 1988, Chen and Leung 1989). However, the results reported by Kroll and Curley

(1988) show that a switch to conceptual mediation may occur quite early, long before

novice bilinguals achieve production fluency.

Additional evidence for early conceptual involvement in novice bilinguals was

provided by Griffin and Harley (1996). They examined effects of the direction of

association on word list learning. Four groups of novice English-French bilinguals were

given a list of words which two groups studied in the L -to-L2 direction and another two








groups studied in the L2-to-L1 direction. The groups performance was later tested in

translation tasks from L1 to L2 (a production task) and from L2 to L1 (a comprehension

task). Conditions at encoding and test were partially counterbalanced. It was found that

matching encoding and retrieval conditions and using LI as a target language

(comprehension) were particularly favorable for a better performance at test, whereas

direction of learning (i.e. direction of association) had no significant effect on group

performance. A comparison between the two directions of learning over the

comprehension and production tasks showed that word association learning from L1 to

L2 was less disadvantaged by the demands made on it under the reverse condition (i.e.

translation from L2 to L1) than was the L2-to-L1 learning condition. In other words, it

was demonstrated that in word-association learning, a more stable performance at test

resulted when learning proceeded in the direction associated with conceptual processing.

According to the revised hierarchical model word association in the direction

from L2 to LI is achieved at the lexical level of processing and should provide a stronger

interlanguage connection for novice bilinguals than the direction from L1 to L2 which is

considered to be established at the conceptual level of processing. Furthermore, it was

suggested that L2-to-L1 lexical connections are stronger than those from LI to L2,

because "second language words are frequently taught by associating them to first

language (e.g., casa means 'house') but not vice versa" (Kroll 1993, p. 70). The findings

of Griffin and Harley (1996) were not compatible with the above assumptions. It was

demonstrated that direction of association was not a crucial factor affecting bilingual

performance at test as compared to matching of encoding and retrieval conditions.

Additionally, it was shown that successful retrieval of a lexical form largely depends on








how well a given lexical representation is established in the memory of a bilingual

speaker. The latter evidence suggests that the issue of directionality is relevant as long as

there is a significant developmental asymmetry in LI and L2 representations. It also

suggests that the dichotomy between lexical and conceptual processing in the bilingual

memory may not be as strict as defined in the reviewed models of bilingual lexical and

conceptual representation.

Concept Acquisition and Representation


The bilingual research paradigm has concentrated on representational issues

without regard to the issues of lexical and conceptual development. A developmental

approach may provide insights to the problem of the bilingual representation, because it

considers representation as the relations between conceptual and lexical information

within a functional context. The findings from word and category learning studies suggest

that concept acquisition cannot be considered without social-pragmatic and functional

contexts (Tomasello 1996). Social-pragmatic contexts are closely associated with

activities and routines such as schemas and scripts, which provide a framework for

emerging functional and thematic categories. As reported in object-sorting studies

(Fivush, 1987), 14- and 20-month-old infants tend to select objects sequentially in the

same script category (kitchenware vs bathroom accessories) from the total set of objects

available to them at a greater than chance level probability. Although the script-based

categories are assumed to be functional, many of the categories develop into traditional

taxonomic categories (e.g. furniture, clothing). Findings from semantic priming studies

showed that categorical organization constitutes an important factor in lexical and








conceptual access (Collins & Quillian 1969, Meyer & Schvanveldt 1971, Collins &

Loftus 1975).

Language-Specific Organization and Bilingual Representation


Variations in socio-cultural routines affect the relative structure of the knowledge-

based constructs that determine lexical-conceptual activation patterns. Mappings of

lexical-conceptual relations onto knowledge-based constructs are lexicalized in the ways

that may not be shared across languages. The following often-cited example from Talmy

(1985) demonstrates different lexicalization patterns of conceptual primitives such as

MOTION, PATH, FIGURE, GROUND and MANNER in English (1) and Spanish (2):

(1) The bottle floated into the cave.

(2) La botella entro flotando en a la cueva.

English was said to conflate MOTION and MANNER into a single lemma "float",

whereas in Spanish speakers use separate lemmas to convey these conceptual primitives.

However, in Spanish the lemma "entro", which denotes MOTION, also makes reference

to PATH and GROUND. The implication is that for Spanish-English bilinguals Spanish

lexicalization patterns are associated with a lower activation threshold than contrasting

English lexicalization patterns, unless the contrasts are highlighted by relevant contextual

information. Since social- pragmatic contexts specify encoding and retrieval conditions,

they may be used as a point of reference for matching lexical and conceptual

representations in lexical access. Hence the relation between lexical-conceptual mappings

and knowledge-based constructs provides a valuable theoretical component that has not

been considered by the models of bilingual lexical representation and storage.













CHAPTER 3
THE MODEL OF CONCEPTUAL STRUCTURE MAPPING

The purpose of the present study is to propose a model of bilingual memory that

considers traditional issues of lexical and conceptual development like concept formation

and word learning as central to the issues of storage and representation. The model claims

that the representational organization of bilingual memory arises from relations between

conceptual and lexical information in given socio-pragmatic and functional contexts.

The proposed model introduces the notion of conceptual structure as its major

functional component. Conceptual structure can be succinctly defined as a set of

knowledge-based constructs such as frames, domains, and schemas that accommodate the

conceptual knowledge and lexical items of a language in a way which reflects language-

specific lexicalization patterns. The configuration of a given conceptual structure is

determined by a number of contributing factors, e.g. the perceptual abilities of a language

learner, the socio-pragmatic context of concept-acquisition episodes, and the available

linguistic means. Stable cooccurrence of these factors determines a central tendency in

the formation of a conceptual structure. This central tendency ensures that the speakers of

a given language community possess highly compatible conceptual structures. Instability

within the structure is associated with variability of the aforementioned contributing

factors and with different degrees of entrenchment of particular structural elements within

the memory of an individual speaker. The degree of entrenchment of a particular part of








the structure may be specified in two ways. It may be specified in terms of the overall

frequency of activation which accumulates during the lifetime of the structure or in terms

of contextual saliency of recent activation episodes.

Conceptual structure constitutes a heuristic device that explicates observed

activation patterns in terms of a relational network organization of conceptual and lexical

material. The notion of conceptual structure and its functions are explained in the

structural and developmental assumptions elaborated below.

The Structural Assumption


The key components of the structural assumption draw heavily upon the theories

and empirical findings of cognitive semantics and cognitive psychology. The present

description of the model is not fully formalized. The formal mechanisms assumed include

a relational network storage system with spreading activation. These are compatible with

several theories, e.g. Lamb's stratificantional theory and Langacker's Cognitive

Grammar2, but the model I use herein is not fully specified.

One component of the structural assumption encompasses the same structural

principles as the ones developed in Langacker's relational-network (RN) model.3 The

RN model was proposed to capture the relationships that hold between various senses of





I Lamb 1966, 1971.
2 A more comprehensive review of Cognitive Grammar can be found in Langacker 1987
and Rudzka-Ostyn 1988.
3 Langacker's model is neither the first nor the most highly elaborated one available, but
it suffices as a starting point for the preliminary studies herein.








lexical items and to provide a theoretical construct for the prototype model of

categorization. 4

The RN model maintains that the senses of lexical items (= relational

connections) in a network are determined by two types of relationships: schematicity and

extension. Schematicity represents the degree to which a particular sense can be defined:

a finer-grained instantiation or specialization, and a more approximate representation or

abstraction. An extension is a relationship in which some basic specifications are

suspended or ignored to form a new meaning.

In the example provided by Langacker (1988), a relational network of the lexical

item ring was modeled to demonstrate relationships of schematicity and extension. Thus,

the meaning 'a circular piece ofjewelry' can be said to represent a specialization of a

more abstract sense 'a circular object'. The relationship between the meaning 'arena' and

the abstraction 'a circular object' represents an extension, in which strict geometric

specifications are suspended and only functional specifications remain relevant (see

Figure 3-1).

Langacker's relational networks were introduced primarily to address issues of

category membership and to account for prototype effects. Although no specific

configuration was required by the facts, the RN approach addressed only functional-

similarity relation between senses in a network. A more varied approach to access and

activation issues that permits any analogical connection between nodes in relational



4 Prototype Theory and the notion of prototype in its current interpretation have been
developed in a series of experiments and papers by Rosch (1973, 1974, 1975a, 1975b,
1978).













ARENA |
ULARI ------ -


Figure 3-1. A relational network of the English lexical item ring proposed by
Langacker (1988). Prototypical meaning is given in bold. Dashed lines point to sense
that are extensions of the corresponding abstractions and specializations.



networks was not considered. Consequently, the networks were given a rigid structural

organization, which can not account for the instability in activation patterns observed in

different contexts. Various phenomena associated with instability in graded categories

have been largely explored in the works of Barsalou (1983,1985, 1987). Barsalou

maintains that all categories, formal, linguistic and goal derived, possess a graded

structure. Graded structure reflects a degree of activation during access. Graded structure

can vary substantially with changes in linguistic context and in point of view; that is,

particular concepts may become more or less accessible in various contexts.

Unlike the relational network model, the frame-based organization proposed by

Barsalou (1992) employs an extensive knowledge base to account for effects arising from








the instability of graded structures. Barsalou argues that it is implausible to maintain that

the wide range of graded structures observed are all stored in long-term memory. He also

proposed that people can construct a wide range of concepts and relations for the same

category in working memory. Figure 3-2 provides an example of the frame for the

concept 'vacation'. The frame provides a wide knowledge base that contributes to

concept formation. Depending on the context, personal goals, or point of view, people

incorporate different information from long-term memory into the current concept that

they construct for this category.


Figure 2-2. Example of a frame for 'vacation' proposed by Barsalou (1992).



Barsalou's approach to categorization has been criticized for its rather

unconstrained nature (McCauley 1987). Indeed, it is unlikely that such highly structured








body of knowledge as language would be without any stable organization and would

depend largely on temporary constructs composed in working memory.

The present study employs both an RN and a frame-based approach to produce a

theoretical construct that could constitute a stable, yet dynamic representational

organization. Such a representation is needed to account for lexical-conceptual activation

patterns that are both persistent and unstable. A conceptual structure notion is proposed to

accommodate this need. Organizationally, a conceptual structure is best rendered as a

network of relational networks. Figure 3-3 captures a part of the conceptual structure of

the English language which may be activated upon a presentation of the lexical form ring.

The multi-tiered network depicted incorporates both approaches: a network of interrelated

senses and a frame-based organization. Tiers constitute frames of reference in which only

one particular sense in the relational network can be fully specified. The connections

between senses of lexical item resemble relations proposed in the RN model, whereas

relations between senses within a given tier/frame of reference are similar to the ones

proposed within a frame-based approach.

The organization of tiers given in Figure 3-3 is arbitrary and is dictated partly by

limitations of the two dimensional format. The organization of tiers reflects activation

patterns which are largely influenced by such factors as socio-pragmatic context,

frequency of activation, and degree of entrenchment. These factors are also likely to

affect conceptual structure formation for each speaker. The common abstraction 'circular

entity' is schematically represented between tiers so as to provide a connection between

various frames of reference. The common abstract representation constitutes a

conceptualization of a relation between an entity/concept and the environment of its












































Figure 3-3. A schematic representation of a part of the English conceptual structure
associated with the lexical form ring.



application. This relation is not a perceiver-independent property of an entity taken alone,

but rather a conceptualization which has human information processing consequences.

That is, it is psychologically defined. Similar ideas about the conceptualization

mechanism were presented in terms of affordances by Gibson (1966,1979) and further








developed in the approach of psychological essentialism as discussed by Medin (1989).

These approaches to conceptualization, however, do not have clearly defined theoretical

constructs which can capture conceptualization mechanisms pertinent to lexical

processing.

Langacker's (1987) theory of Cognitive Grammar offers categorizing

relationships of schematicity and extension that can gives rise to a number of meanings

when applied to different contextual frames. As depicted in Figure 3-3, the abstract

common representation 'circular entity' can be conceptualized as a piece of jewelry worn

around a finger or as a circular mark, depending on the degree of schematicity required

within a given frame of reference. Contexts that require the suspension of certain basic

specifications constitute the basis for extensions. For example, the frame of reference for

the meaning 'arena', emphasizes particular functional properties and suspends limiting

geometric specifications. The basis for metaphorical extensions is the application of

abstrations to contextual frames different from those they were conventionalized in

(Langacker, 1987; Lakoff, 1987). The most common example of a metaphorical

extension is the representation of temporal relations in spatial terms. For example,

"behind" has a meaning "in the past" when used metaphorically. While differences

between frames of reference have been considered to be the major source of polysemy

(Fillmore & Atkins, 1992).

The structural assumption provides a lexical-conceptual basis for the mechanisms

which govern lexical processing. Thus, activation patterns between tiers are determined

by (1) similarity of other senses to an abstraction, and (2) similarity between frames of

reference. Similarity relations between senses can be established at the basic level, where








judgments primarily involve perception and interpretation of our immediate

environments. Many relations between concepts are so closely tied to looks and

affordances that they seem at first to be perceptually given (Keil, 1987; Mervis, 1987;

Markman, 1987). In other words, people adopt an essentialist heuristics; that is, the

hypothesis that things that look alike tend to share deeper properties (Medin &

Wattenmaker, 1987). Similarity between frames of reference can be established on the

basis of common functional properties that can be realized within appropriate contexts. In

Figure 3-3, such similarity is captured by greater number of connecting lines between

tiers.

Similarity between abstractions and specializations facilitates activation spreading

between the senses (represented in bold lines in Figure 3-3), whereas differences between

contextual frames inhibit such activation. The greater the functional difference between

frames, the longer it takes to establish a relation between the senses of a given item in the

network. For example, the abstraction of a circular entity establishes a connection

between the specializations 'piece of jewelry worn around finger', 'any circular piece of

jewelry', 'circular mark', and 'arena'. Similarity between the domains of application of

the first two senses permit an immediate activation of these two nodes in the network.

The contextual frames which are used to denote a piece of jewelry and a circular mark are

less similar; however, the relationship between the two may be established on the basis of

perceptual salience that is reflected in their closer connection to the common abstraction

'circular entity'. Therefore, it should take a somewhat longer time to activate the meaning

'circular mark' following activation of the meaning 'a piece ofjewelry'. It requires an

even longer time to access the meaning 'arena', because the contextual frame which








constitutes the domain for this meaning bears no resemblance to the other frames of

reference.

The proposed representational organization can accommodate effects resulting

from instability within the graded structure of a lexical category influenced by linguistic

contexts, socio-pragmatic situations, and current goals. These and other linguistic, socio-

pragmatic and environmental factors have been demonstrated to be major sources of

instability affecting category structure and prototype effects (Barsalou, 1983, 1987;

Lakoff, 1987). Thus, retrieval patterns of non-prototypical senses, which are generally

characterized by longer response latencies and lower frequency of recall, may be greatly

affected by the activation of relevant contextual frames. For instance, the activation of

such concepts as 'boxing' and 'tree trunk' may provide a speeded access to less

prototypical senses in the RN representation of the lexical item ring.

The notion of conceptual structure provides a means of accounting for the

instability of graded structure in a lexical category as a result of context effects. The

salience of a particular contextual frame affects the prototype status of the senses in a

network and, subsequently, defines the activation pattern that follows the presentation of

a lexical form in a meaningful context. Context availability is a factor in focusing the

activation pattern that follows the presentation of a lexical form. The focus of the

activation might even be reduced to a single tier. Hence, the model of conceptual

structure mapping predicts that contextual embedding of a lexical form will facilitate a

more direct access to the relevant node in the network. Facilitated access can be

demonstrated empirically by reduced response latencies and a greater proportion of

responses associated with a particular target sense in a given relational network.








The Developmental Assumption


The notion of conceptual structure allows us to consider lexical-conceptual

organization as a result of the lexical and conceptual development of an individual

speaker. The processing patterns underlying concept formation and language acquisition

are of particular importance, since they determine the possible activation patterns in

lexical access. The development of a conceptual structure can be depicted in terms of the

growth of individual relational networks and inter-network connections following natural

routes of lexical and conceptual development.

Conceptual development is one of the facets of human cognitive ability to

compare two events, noting discrepancies and categorizing similarities. This ability is

fundamental for word and category learning. The use of contrastive contexts has been

considered a major means of word learning (Tomasello 1996). A similar principle

contributes to developments of relational networks of the acquired lexical items:

contrastive context provide information about different senses of the same lexical item.

Understanding those contrasts enables a language learner to form a relational network for

a given lexical item. The developmental assumption maintains that bilingual speakers

possess a number of conceptual structures that may be at different stages of development,

as a function of the individual history of the acquisition of the speaker's two languages.

Depending on the extent of the primary conceptual development of an individual speaker,

conceptual structures may develop simultaneously or sequentially. Thus, bilingual

children develop two conceptual structures simultaneously by associating them with

particular lexicalization patterns provided by separate concept-acquisition episodes.








Simultaneous formation does not condition parallel development of L and L2 conceptual

structures (henceforth CSI and CS2) in early bilinguals.

Lexical and conceptual representations of early bilinguals are particularly context-

dependent. Context dependence provides conditions for the complementary development

of conceptual structures with some degree of overlap. The non-overlapping areas are

associated with impeded ability to relate concepts expressed in different languages. The

complementary development of conceptual structures provides a condition for transfer-

type errors and code-switching.

Unlike bilingual children, who are in the process of developing both of their

conceptual structures, adult L2 learners already have a well-establish conceptual system

associated with CS1. In this case they have a solid conceptual system to rely on in the

course of CS2 development. Greater reliance on CSI in L2 learning has been

demonstrated by the findings that adult learners are less inclined to use formulaic

expressions. Instead of learning conventionalized L2 idiomatic expressions, they apply

L extensions to L2 representation, producing transfer-type errors (Wong-Fillmore 1976,

Yorio 1989). CS2 development in adult bilinguals can be captured in terms of mappings

of L2 lexical items on CSI representations. As L2 learners extend their L2 corpus within

the context that provide them with contrastive evidence about L2 lexicalization patterns,

CS2 begins to develop. Isolated L2 representations that were initially mapped onto

convergent CS nodes, begin to evolve their own relational networks that ultimately lead

to CS2 formation.








Conceptual Structure Mapping


Similarity in the socio-pragmatic context of concept formation and a common

pool of linguistic means ensures a similarity between (not absolute identity of) conceptual

structures formed in the same speech community. Conceptual structures developed in

different speech communities may differ (1) in the degree of schematization permitted

between senses in a network, (2) in the sets of contextual frames that provide bases for

the network senses, or (3) in profiling patterns5.

The first condition can be illustrated by the following example. The concepts

'ladder' and 'staircase' are not differentiated in the Russian language. They share a

common abstraction: a means for upward movement. Specifications that pertain to

functional differences between a ladder and a staircase can be suspended. Hence, the

concepts relate different parts of the network to a single lexical item lestnica. Which

concept is activated when lestnica is heard depends on the functional context, which is

very narrowly defined. On the other hand, in English, the functional difference between

the two concepts is central and cannot be suspended. As a result, two lexical items are

used to communicate these two concepts.

A relational network of the Russian lexical itemprobka can be used to illustrate

the second condition. The prototypical sense of this lexical item can be conceptualized in

English as 'plug, stopper, cork', whereas in Russian it is a single indivisible



5 Cognitive Grammar posits hierarchies of domains to provide the basis for various
concepts. The parts of the domains that a linguistic unit invokes are called the base. The
notion of a profile is used to indicate that some facet of the base is raised to a prominent
level (Langacker 1988, pp. 53, 59).








conceptualization of a device that keeps liquid in a container. The relational network of

the Russian word probka is characterized by a considerably larger set of applicable

contextual frames. For instance, the common abstraction of the network senses can be

extended to denote a traffic jam. Although English borrows terms from the same semantic

field to denote congested driving conditions (e.g. bottleneck), the event is conceptualized

differently in the two languages. While in English it is conceptualized as a condition

associated with a too narrow passage, in Russian it is conceptualized a result of some

obstruction in a passage of whatever size.

Linguistic predications in LI and L2 may differ in profiling patterns that are

imposed on a base. For example, the Russian word ruka denotes a concept that conflates

the concepts activated by the English words 'hand' and 'arm'. The contrasting profiling

patterns of the English words are evident from the inappropriate pictures evoked by

sentences (2) and (4). However, the profiling pattern of the Russian word ruka renders the

Russian equivalents of all four sentences appropriate.

(1) She has a child in her arms.

(2) She has a child in her hands.

(3) She has a pen in her hand.

(4) She has a pen in her arm.

Note, however, that there are only two Russian sentences involved: U nee rebenok v

rukax translates both (1) and (2) and Unee rucka v ruke translates both (3) and(4). In

short, some transfer-type errors may result from the bilingual's failure to recognize

contrasts in one-to-many profiling patterns of L1 and L2.








As shown, the conceptual structures of two different languages may have

networks which are highly compatible, less compatible, or even incompatible.

Compatible areas are associated with perceptually salient domains of human cognition.

Thus, the network representation of concrete nouns has been demonstrated to be highly

compatible in many languages. The results obtained in semantic priming (Jin & Fischler

1987, de Groot& Nas 1991) demonstrates that a greater cross-linguistic priming effect is

characteristic of concrete words, whereas greater language-specific variations are

characteristic of abstract words. Incongruities resulting from mapping incompatible areas

in two conceptual structures account for performance deficits in bilingual production, e.g.

longer response times and lexical transfer.

The proposed model contends that conceptual structure mapping provides a

functional account of the lexical-conceptual representation of the bilingual memory. The

model does not posit a strict dichotomy of lexical and conceptual level processing.

Instead it uses the notion of a structured relational network to capture the intricate

relations between lexical and conceptual information. The mapping metaphor represents a

link between the two conceptual structures of a bilingual and helps to explain the

activation patterns observed in bilingual production.













CHAPTER 4
EXPERIMENT 1: MODIFIED REPLICATION
OF THE SHOLL ET AL. (1995) STUDY

The revised hierarchical model of bilingual memory proposed by Kroll and

Stewart (1994) maintains that the language-specific lexical representations of a bilingual

are linked at both lexical and conceptual levels. Specifically which level is activated

depends on the direction of interlanguage connections. If mediation between languages

proceeds in the direction from L1 to L2, the languages connect at the conceptual level,

where amodal conceptual representations of lexical items are activated. If bilinguals

mediate in the direction from L2 to L1, connections between L2 and L1 words are

established at the lexical level. Such connections provide direct lexical links between L1

and L2 stores and do not require activation of amodal conceptual representations.

Sholl, Sankaranarayanan, and Kroll (1995) used transfer-appropriate logic to

provide support for the configuration of connections outlined in the revised hierarchical

model. According to the principle of transfer-appropriate processing, memory

performance is a function of the overlap between study and test operations. The revised

hierarchical model predicts that conceptual activation should affect bilingual performance

when the direction of mediation between bilinguals' two languages proceeds from L1 to

L2, but not in the opposite direction. Effects of prior picture naming on translation times

from L1 to L2 and from L2 to LI were examined to provide evidence supporting the

types of connections proposed in the revised hierarchical model of bilingual memory. The








results demonstrated that the magnitude of facilitation following picture naming in both

L1 and L2 was greater when the translation was performed from LI to L2 than in the

opposite direction. The reported effects were interpreted as resulting from transfer that is

possible between the tasks that have similar processing requirements. Translation and

picture naming were thoroughly investigated in a number of studies (Potter, So, von

Eckhardt & Feldman 1984, Glaser 1992, Snodgras 1993). Both tasks were assumed to

share lexical and conceptual processing requirements. As follows from the revised

hierarchical model, processing requirements in translation differ, depending on the

direction of translation. Since it was proposed that translation from LI to L2 is a

conceptual-level task and translation from L2 to LI is a lexical-level task, the facilitation

observed in L1-to-L2 translation following picture naming was interpreted as evidence of

transfer that is possible between conceptually-driven tasks. On the other hand, the

absence of any significant effects on L2-to-L1 translation latencies was taken as an

indication of a different type of processing, which was assumed to be lexical. In addition,

it was suggested that the locus of transfer was not at the level of retrieving the lexical

form, because production of picture names had no effect on L2-to-L 1 translation

latencies.

One purpose of the present experiment was to obtain additional evidence

regarding the locus of transfer. Since picture naming provides both conceptual and lexical

activation, the observed transfer effects might have resulted from both. It is necessary to

determine exactly what effects) each of these causes have by itself. We must therefore

dissociate lexical and conceptual factors at the encoding stage of the experiment. For this

purpose lexical decision and object identification tasks were substituted for picture








naming. In a lexical decision task one should identify whether a string of letters

constitutes a word. Presenting translation stimuli in a lexical decision task was supposed

to ensure prior activation of the target lexical representations. An object identification

task was assumed to provide the same amount of conceptual activation as picture naming

(Kroll & Potter, 1984) without the explicit production of a lexical form. In the object

identification task reported in the Kroll and Potter (1984) study participants were required

to identify whether a drawing represents a real object. However, it is possible that in such

a task conceptual representations of easily identifiable objects may not be sufficiently

activated. To ensure sufficient activation, an object sorting task was used. In this task all

stimuli were unambiguous pictures of common objects. A participant was instructed to

decide whether an object could be found in her or his home. Pictures were sorted into

three piles according to the type of a decision provided ("yes," "no," and "don't know").

The principles employed in an object sorting task are very similar to the ones used

in categorization. Traditionally, categorization was assumed to be a task that could suit

this purpose (Dufour & Kroll 1995). Unlike picture naming, categorization does not

require the explicit production of a lexical form that is associated with a particular

concept. However, categorization can not be considered a purely conceptual task,

inasmuch as it establishes a lexical link at a comprehension level. In order to perform this

task participants should activate lexical representations of category names. The task may

create language bias by using a particular language to name categories. Although it may

be argued that providing category names in both languages could constrain the exclusive

access to a single lexical store, parallel presentation of Ll and L2 category names could

trigger activation of lexical-level connections. In other words, bilinguals may be








encouraged to perform an implicit matching of L1 and L2 lexical representations of a

target concept. Nevertheless, language bias may be due to cross-linguistic differences in

categorization patterns. This bias is closely linked to culturally- or experientially-bound

instances of language use. For example, native speakers of American English tend to put

corn in a vegetable category, since one of its most common functions fits the profile of a

vegetable, while Russian native speakers would be more inclined to categorize corn as a

grain. In a case when a target stimulus may represent different categories in a bilingual's

two languages, the availability of one but not the other category name can condition the

access to a particular lexical store. Careful selection of experimental stimuli and category

names may help to eliminate language bias, yet it would not eliminate implicit activation

of lexical-level connections. Hence, an object sorting task could be viewed as a better

task to provide sufficient conceptual activation with less lexical interference.

The other purpose of the present experiment was to examine whether transfer was

the only factor affecting translation accuracy of the stimuli previously named as pictures.

According to the transfer-appropriate logic employed in the Sholl et al. (1995)

experiment, translation responses that were facilitated by prior picture naming should be

exactly the same as naming responses. Although all experimental stimuli were concrete

nouns of high imageability, many of them were polysemous lexemes that could trigger a

number of translation responses in both languages. The model proposed here maintains

that activation of a particular sense associated with a stimulus lexical item depends on a

number of factors such as (1) a bilingual's familiarity with a target sense, (2) its prototype

status in a given relational network, (3) differences in relational organization of

equivalent lexical items in LI and L2. The model predicts that transfer from the study








task may not be the only factor affecting bilinguals' performance at test. The choice of a

lexical form in translation may be affected by each of the aforementioned factors as well.

For instance, if a Russian-English bilingual is not familiar with a target sense (e.g. 'screw

nut') of the English stimulus lexical item nut, the non-target Russian form oreh 'kernel'

will be produced in response. Therefore, it is critical to distinguish between translations

that are the same as the names activated by primes (henceforth, primed translations) and

translations that fail to produce target/primed lexemes, yet could be considered correct

responses (henceforth, unprimed translations). Since such a distinction was not made in

the original study, it is not clear whether the reported effects could be a result of transfer

or could be triggered by other processes. Separate analyses of both overall and primed

translation data are required before any substantial claims could be made.

Method


Participants

Twenty-eight Russian-English bilinguals participated in the experiment. All

participants were native speakers of Russian. The age of the participants ranged from 18

to 42. On average, these participants had studied English for 11.2 years, and had been in

an English speaking environment for 4.7 years. At the beginning of the experimental

session, participants were requested to fill out a questionnaire about their language

learning experiences and were also asked to evaluate their L2 proficiency. Participants

noted their dominance in Russian. They did not consider themselves as balanced

bilinguals. They rated themselves at an advanced level for most aspects of L2 production








and at a near-native level in some areas of L2 production and most areas of L2

comprehension. No compensation was offered for participation.

Materials

The base materials were 170 words selected from the Snodgrass and Vanderwart

(1980) picture-word norms and 20 non-words generated on the basis of 10 English and 10

Russian words. There were two priming conditions and two translation conditions.

Picture primes (40 target and 10 filler pictures) were presented in the object sorting task,

and word primes (80 target words: 40 Russian and 40 English, and 20 non-word filler

items) were used in the lexical decision task. Eighty 80 Russian and 80 English words

were used in each translation condition. Out of 80 translation stimuli, 20 words were

previously shown as pictures, 20 words were seen in L1 (Russian), 20 words were

presented in L2 (English) and 20 words were new/unprimed stimuli. All translation

stimuli were partially counterbalanced across four priming conditions (picture primes, L

primes, L2 primes, new stimuli/unprimed) and two language conditions (translation from

L1 to L2 and from L2 to L1). The experimental stimuli and the conditions in which they

were presented are listed in Appendix (Tables A-1 and A-2).

Apparatus

The experiment was conducted on an IBM compatible notebook computer with a

24 cm color active-matrix display. The computer ran a program written in Quickbasic.

The instructions and the stimuli were presented in white 0.5 x 0.5 cm letters on black

background. Picture stimuli were presented on flash cards. All responses were oral.

Responses were audio recorded so they could be later checked for accuracy.








Procedure

Since priming conditions were blocked in the original study (naming in LI and

L2), priming conditions were also blocked in this experiment. Participants were presented

with a block of picture primes and a block of word primes before translation. Blocks of

picture and word primes were counterbalanced across participants. To ensure proper

activation of picture prime stimuli participants had to decide whether an item presented

in a picture could be found in their home. They were requested to sort pictures into three

piles according to the type of the response they could provide: "yes," "no," "don't know".

In a lexical decision task participants were asked to decide whether a stimulus

item constitute an English word, a Russian word or a non-word. Word primes were

presented on a computer screen. At the beginning of every trial a fixation point appeared

on the screen. It was visible for 1 second and was immediately followed by stimulus

presentation. Participants had to press color-coded keys as they made a decision: red for

Russian words, green for English words and yellow for non-words. The yellow key was

positioned in the center of the keyboard. Left and right assignment of the red and green

key was counterbalanced across participants.

As in the original study, translations from L1 to L2 and from L2 to LI were

performed in separate blocks. The order of production language was counterbalanced

across participants. Translation stimuli were presented on a computer screen. At the

beginning of every trial a fixation point appeared on the screen. It was visible for 1

second and was immediately followed by stimulus presentation. Translation latencies

were measured for every stimulus by a timer which was set to go off the moment a








stimulus word appeared on the screen. Participants were instructed to press a green key at

an onset of translation production. In case they could not translate, they were asked to

press a yellow key, which enabled them to proceed to the next stimuli. There was a one

second break before the next trial. Both lexical decision and translation tasks were

preceded by a short practice session to ensure a consistent performance at test.

Participants were tested individually. The experimental session lasted from 20 to 30

minutes.

Results


The data obtained in the translation task were trimmed according to the same

principles as in the Sholl et al. (1995) study; that is, latencies with values greater than 2.5

standard deviations above a given participant's mean response time were excluded from

the analysis. Latencies from incorrectly translated items were not included in the set. In

addition, an item analysis of translation data was performed. Three stimulus items that

received less then 10 % of responses were removed from the analysis because of the lack

of data.

Correct responses provided to primed translation stimuli did not always denote the

same concepts that were activated by picture and word primes. Although all experimental

stimuli were concrete nouns of high imageability, many of them had multiple meanings.

Chances of providing unprimed translations were equally high in both directions. For

example, the English word nail may be translated in Russian as nogot' and gvozd' to

denote a horny growth at the end of fingers and toes, and a pointed piece of metal,

respectively. In a like manner, Russian word lestnica means both 'ladder' and 'staircase'.








The data obtained in this experiment was analyzed on the overall number of

correct translations and on the number of primed translations (i.e. translations of the

stimuli that produced primed lexical forms).

Overall Translation Data

Figure 4-1 presents mean translation latencies as a function of the direction of

translation (from L1 to L2 or from L2 to L1) and the priming condition (i.e. whether

translation stimuli were primed by pictures, L1 word, L2 word or were new/unprimed).

Translation latencies for the new items demonstrated greater asymmetry than the

asymmetry reported in the Sholl et al. (1995) study and its replication. On average,

translation times from L1 to L2 were 433 ms longer than translation times from L2 to L1

(1,933 ms and 1,500 ms respectively).






| 2.2
8 2 -. Picture BLI1 L2 ONew











2L1>L2 L2>L1
1.8
1.6





0.4
0.2


Ll>L2 L2>L I


Figure 4-1. Overall translation data: Mean translation latencies as a function of the
direction of translation and the priming condition.








A 2 x 4 ANOVA (two directions of translation: L >L2, L2>L1, and four priming

conditions: translation stimuli primed by pictures, LI and L2 words, and new/unprimed)

was performed on mean translation times using participants as random factors. As in the

original study, the analysis revealed a significant main effect of the direction of

translation, F(1,216) = 11.3,p<.01. However, the main effect of the priming condition

and interaction between the direction of translation and the priming condition were not

significant (p>.5).

Comparison of translation latencies in both directions showed that LI primes

produced differential effects. Unlike other translation stimuli, the concepts that were

previously primed by L1 lexical items did not demonstrate translation asymmetry. A one-

way ANOVA with priming condition as a within subject variable were performed on

translation latencies for each direction. The effect of the priming condition on translation

latencies was not significant in both directions (p>.5). Additional paired sample t-tests of

translation latencies showed that the effect of priming approached significance only in the

direction from L2 to L1. Participants were 317 ms slower when translating stimuli primed

by L1 words as compared to the stimuli primed by L2 words (t=2.06,p=.05). Effects of

other conditions were not significant (p>.05). Contrary to the results reported in the

original study, the L2-to-L direction was more sensitive to different priming conditions.

Accuracy data are given in Table 4-1 as a function of the direction of translation

and the priming condition. As in the original study, participants were more accurate when

translating from L2 to L1 than in the opposite direction. A 2 x 4 ANOVA performed on

the accuracy data using participants as random factors demonstrated a significant main

effect of the direction of translation, F (1,216) = 23.23, p<.01. In addition, the analysis








revealed a significant interaction between the direction of translation and the priming

condition, F(3,216) = 9.09,p<.01. The effect of the priming condition was not significant

(p>.5). A one-way ANOVA with the priming condition as a within-subject variable was

performed on accuracy data for each direction. The effect of priming was significant in

the direction from LI to L2, F(3,108) = 5.82, p<.01, and was marginally significant in the

opposite direction F(3, 108) = 3.93, p<.05. Additional paired sample t-tests revealed that

both lexical (L2 word) and conceptual (picture) primes produced equal effects in the

direction from LI to L2 (t
when translating stimuli primed by pictures than unprimed stimuli or stimuli primed by

L2 words (t-2.68,p=.01 and t=3.23,p=.01 respectively).


Table 4-1. Proportion of correct translations in different priming conditions.

Priming condition:
Picture L1 word L2 word Unprimed
Ll-to-L2 .81 .70 .80 .70
STD .10 .14 .12 .15
L2-to-L1 .78 .86 .83 .84
STD .9 .11 .09 .10



Primed Translations

Latencies of unprimed translations were removed from the set of the overall

translation data. Responses that did not match L2 picture names or L2 lexical forms

presented at study were removed from L1-to-L2 translation data, and, conversely,

responses that did not match LI picture names and L1 word primes were removed from

L2-to-L 1 translation data. Translation data of new items remained the same as in the








analysis of the overall translation data. On average 2.25 trials were omitted in L1-to-L2

translations, and 2.21 trials were omitted in L2-to-L1 translations in a data set obtained

from a single participant. A list of unprimed translations is provided in Appendix (Table

A-3).


Table 4-2. A comparison of mean translation latencies in seconds for the overall and the
primed translation data. Primed translation latencies are given in parentheses if different
from overall translation latencies.

Priming condition:
Picture L1 word L2 word Unprimed
Ll-to-L2 1.75 (1.74) 1.79 1.76 (1.78) 1.93
STD .59 (.58) .58 .62 (.69) .67
L2-to-L1 1.51 (1.50) 1.77(1.78) 1.46 1.50
STD .37 (.38) .67 (.69) .47 .44



Table 4-2 presents a comparison of translation latencies for the overall and the

primed translation data sets. As reported in the replication of Sholl et al. (1995),

comparison of the overall and primed translation latencies revealed only a negligible

difference. A 2 x 4 ANOVA performed on mean translation latencies using participants

as random factors showed the effects as reported in the analysis of the overall translation

data. There was a significant main effect of direction of translation, F(1,216) = 11.3,

p<.01. The main effect of priming and the interaction between the direction of translation

and the priming condition were not significant (p>.5). A one-way ANOVA with priming

condition as a within-subject variable did not show a significant effect of priming in both

directions (p>.5).











overall a primed





0
0.9





o 0.6
0o
0.5



L1 >L2 L2 >L1




Figure 4-2. A comparison of accuracy values for the proportion of all correct
translations and the proportion of primed translations



Figure 4-2 presents a comparison of the overall and primed accuracy data. Data

patterns observed in Figure 4-2 suggest that higher accuracy values reported in the

analysis of the overall translation data for the stimuli primed by pictures and L2 words in

Ll-to-L2 translation and L1 words in L2-to-L1 translation were not a result of priming. A

2 x 4 ANOVA was performed on the accuracy data with the direction of translation and

the priming condition as within-subject variables. As in the analysis of the overall

translation data, there was a main effect of the direction of translation, F(1,216) = 21.57,

p<.01. Interaction between the direction of translation and the transfer condition was also

significant, F(3,216) = 6.11, p<01. Separate one-way ANOVA with the transfer

condition and the direction of translation as within-subject variables were performed on

accuracy of the primed translation data. Contrary to the previous analysis, priming effects








were no longer significant in the direction from L1 to L2, p>.5, whereas in the opposite

direction priming effects became significant, F(3,108) = 6.45, p<.O1.

Discussion


According to the revised hierarchical model, translation from LI to L2 is a

conceptually-driven task and should benefit from prior conceptual activation of

translation stimuli. Therefore, translation latencies of the stimuli which were previously

presented in the object sorting task should demonstrate a significant reduction of

translation latencies as compared to the stimuli presented as LI and L2 words or the

stimuli which did not receive any prior activation. The experimental data reported here do

not support this contention. Neither the effect of priming nor the interaction between the

priming condition and the direction of translation were significant.

Latencies obtained in this experiment demonstrated a significant translation

asymmetry. Translation times for the new items in Ll-to-L2 translation were 433 ms

longer than in the opposite direction. This asymmetry was even greater than the

asymmetry reported in the original study, which was 149 ms. Therefore, it would be

reasonable to conclude that bilingual speakers employed in this experiment were

dominant in their first language, as was a group of bilinguals in the original study.

The results obtained in the original study demonstrated that English-Spanish

bilinguals were concept mediators only in the direction from L1 to L2. On the basis of

extensive experimental evidence Dufour and Kroll (1995) proposed that more fluent

bilinguals may gradually switch to concept mediation in both directions. According to

their proposal, as fluency increases, bilinguals switch to conceptual mediation in both








directions. In such a case translation asymmetry should be significantly reduced and

transfer between picture naming and translation should be effective in both directions.

According to Sholl et al. (1995), transfer effects are an indication of conceptual level

processing during translation. In the Sholl et al. (1995) study transfer between picture

naming and translation effected a reversal of the standard translation asymmetry. Unlike

the translation latencies of new words that were longer in Ll-to-L2 translation than in the

opposite direction, L1-to-L2 translation latencies of the concepts that were previously

named in L2 were shorter than their L2-to-L 1 translation latencies. Such a reversal effect

may be significantly reduced in the case of bi-directional conceptual activation during

translation resulting from insufficient translation asymmetry. As a result, effects of

experimental variables become less transparent in the data of more fluent bilinguals. The

latency data which exhibits greater translation asymmetry would be more transparent for

transfer effects than the data that does not exhibit such asymmetry. Notwithstanding, this

study failed to obtain transfer effects in the latency data.

The lack of a transfer effect in the Ll-to-L2 direction in this data suggests that the

locus of priming may not be at the conceptual level, as proposed in the original study.

Moreover, L2-to-L translation latencies demonstrated sensitivity to different types of

lexical stimuli in this direction: there was a significant difference between translation

latencies produced in responses to the stimuli which were previously presented as LI and

L2 words. Responses to LI-primed words were significantly slower than response to L2-

primed words (t=2.06, p=.05). Although sensitivity to differences in lexical stimuli in the

direction from L2 to LI agrees with the assumption that that translation in this direction

is performed at the lexical level of processing, it contradicts the conjecture that the locus








of transfer is not at the level of retrieving the lexical form. The leading assumption of the

revised hierarchical model (i.e. that translation from L2 to L1 is essentially a lexical-level

task) also became problematic for the principle of transfer-appropriate processing.

Following the logic of transfer-appropriate processing, prior lexical activation should

facilitate performance of the task that requires lexical processing. As shown in the

analysis of L -to-L2 latency data, such facilitation was not obtained. Prior processing of

L2 lexical stimuli resulted in a 39 ms facilitation of response times, which was not

significant. Contrary to the transfer-appropriate logic, prior exposure to L1 stimuli

produced a negative effect: the time to translate the stimuli previously seen as L1 words

was 270 ms longer than the time to translate new words. This negative effect remained

when latencies ofunprimed translations were removed from the data set. Since all

translation stimuli were counterbalanced across the priming conditions, the effect was not

due to stimuli selection. Although the reliability of this effect is rather questionable, the

mere likelihood of this episode questions validity of the assumption that was tested in this

experiment.

Additional evidence regarding the locus of transfer comes from analyses of the

accuracy data. Accuracy was analyzed on the basis of all correct responses (overall

accuracy) and on the basis of responses which produced exactly the same lexical forms as

were supposed to be activated by primes (primed accuracy). The effects reported in the

analysis of the overall accuracy conform to predictions that follow from the revised

hierarchical model. That is, in the direction from LI to L2, bilinguals were more accurate

in their translations of the stimuli that were previously presented as pictures and L2

words, whereas in the opposite direction neither of the priming conditions were








significantly different. Higher response accuracy to the stimuli primed by pictures and L2

words in L1-to-L2 translation could be interpreted as evidence of transfer that occurs in

the direction from Ll to L2. However, an itemized analysis of the accuracy data revealed

that not all correct translations could result from prior presentation of a prime. For

example, in the Russian language, the word lestnica is used to denote two concepts that

have distinct lexical representations in English ('ladder' and 'staircase'). In translation

from LI to L2 the stimulus lestnica was unprimed in one subset of stimuli and was

primed by a picture of a ladder, by the Russian word lestnica and by the English word

ladder in other subsets. In L1-to-L2 translation both English words were produced,

regardless of the priming condition. In the subsets where the concept of ladder was

activated either by a picture or by the English word, "stairs" or "staircase" were

considered unprimed responses.

Unprimed responses were removed from the analysis of the primed translations.

The analysis revealed that actual effects of priming were the reverse of what was

expected: priming effects were significant only in the direction from L2 to LI, and as

with the latency data, the effect of transfer was negative in this direction. The combined

evidence from the overall and primed accuracy analyses indicate that higher accuracy

ratio of responses to primed translation stimuli did not result from transfer, since the

proportion of target lexical items produced in response to primed translation stimuli were

lower than the proportion of correct translations provided in response to unprimed

translation stimuli (see Figure 4-2).

The results suggest that both lexical and conceptual priming may not be

considered a reliable factor affecting translation accuracy. Translation accuracy is a








complex notion that is affected by a bilingual's familiarity with patterns of lexical-

conceptual organization in the target language. A set of lexical items activated by a

particular concept may be different in a bilingual's two languages. A bilingual may not

have a sufficient knowledge of L2 lexical-conceptual organization in order to account for

the differences. Otherwise, production demands may not require them to discriminate

between sets of senses which can be activated by a stimulus lexical item in both

languages. Since the translation of isolated stimuli does not require such discrimination,

this type of a task may not provide an adequate account of the processes engaged in the

activation and retrieval of lexical information in both languages. The use of contextual

information along with single word stimuli can help to channel activation in a particular

direction, in which case experimental results would not be uncontrollably confounded by

other factors. For example, it was shown that use of meaningful contexts at study leads to

semantic involvement at test even on such traditional data-driven task as word-fragment

completion (Smith, 1991). Thus, memory performance has been demonstrated to be not

only the function of the overlap between encoding and retrieval conditions, but also the

function of the interaction between task demands and stimulus processing requirements.

Since in the Sholl et al. (1995) study the major emphasis was put on the former, the

results may not be a comprehensive reflection of bilingual memory performance.













CHAPTER 5
EXPERIMENT 2: REPLICATION OF
THE SHOLL ET AL. (1995) STUDY

In the Sholl et al. (1995) experiment picture naming was used at the encoding

condition to provide conceptual activation, and translation was used at the test. The

results were predicted to demonstrate a transfer between the tasks that share similar

processing requirements. Following the representational organization proposed in the

revised hierarchical model, picture naming was expected to affect translation times of

previously named concepts only in the direction from LI to L2, because only this

direction was proposed to require conceptual activation. The results reported by Sholl et

al. (1995) confirmed the prediction. Significant reduction in translation times from L1 to

L2 and the absence of thereof in the opposite direction was found to be in agreement with

the principle of transfer-appropriate processing. Shorter latencies observed in Ll-to-L2

translation of the previously named concepts were interpreted as an indication of transfer

which is possible between tasks that require conceptual processing. In addition, the lack

of transfer in L2-to-L translation following name production in picture naming task was

interpreted as evidence suggesting that the locus of transfer is not at the level of lexical

form retrieval. The combined evidence was taken as support for the configuration

proposed in the revised hierarchical model.

The purpose of this experiment was to replicate the effects reported by Sholl et al.

(1995). It is not clear from the analysis reported by Sholl et al. (1995) whether








translations of previously named concepts were matched up to the responses that were

produced in the naming task. The analysis of the responses obtained in the Experiment 1

demonstrated that some correct responses produced unprimed translations. As mentioned

in Chapter 3, the present model maintains that transfer is not the only factor affecting

bilingual performance at test. Therefore an itemized analysis of the translation data is

needed to assess the extent of transfer effect on the primed responses.

Method


Participants

Fifteen Russian-English bilinguals participated in the experiment. All participants

were native speakers of Russian who had lived in an English-speaking environment for at

least 2.5 years (5.2 on average) and had studied English as a foreign language for at least

2 years (3.8 on average) before coming to the US. At the beginning of each experimental

session, participants were requested to fill out a questionnaire about their language

learning experiences and were also asked to evaluate their L2 fluency level. Participants

did not consider themselves to be balanced bilinguals. They rated themselves at an

advanced level for most aspects of L2 production and at a near-native level in some areas

of L2 production and most areas of L2 comprehension. Participants were not given any

compensation for participation.

Materials

The materials were selected according to the same principles described in Sholl et

al. (1995). There were 80 pictures selected from the Snodgrass and Vanderwart (1980)

norms. Picture names formed a variety of superordinate categories in both English and








Russian. Pictures and their word names were divided into four versions and were partially

counterbalanced across conditions and across participants. Half of the materials were

presented at study; that is, 20 pictures were used in the LI naming task and 20 other

pictures were used in the L2 naming task. An additional 20 pictures were added to the set

as fillers to be used in picture naming: half of them were used in the L1 naming block and

half of them were used in the L2 naming block. The remaining 40 picture names were

presented as new stimulus items in the translation task: half of them were presented in

translation from L1 to L2 and half of them were used in translation from L2 to LI. Except

for deliberate repetition of the target picture names in the translation task, no concepts

were repeated for a given participant. There were two blocks of translation stimuli. Each

block consisted of 10 picture names that were named in LI, 10 picture names that were

named in L2, and 20 words that were presented as new items. Stimulus materials and the

experimental conditions in which they were used are provided in Appendix (Tables A-4

and A-5).

Apparatus

The experiment was conducted on an IBM compatible notebook computer with a

24 cm color active-matrix display. The experiment ran a computer program written in

Quickbasic. The instructions and the stimuli were presented in white 0.5x0.5 cm letters

on black background. All responses were oral. Responses were audiotaped so they could

be later checked for accuracy.








Procedure

Participants were presented with two blocks of picture stimuli and were asked to

name each block of pictures in their first (Russian) and second (English) language. The

order of LI and L2 naming was counterbalanced across participants. Pictures were

presented on flash cards. Participants were requested to name them as quickly as they

could. Naming latencies were taken for the whole set of pictures. The naming task was

immediately followed by translations from L1 to L2 and from L2 to L1, which were

performed in separate blocks. The order of language production was counterbalanced

across participants. Translation stimuli were presented on a computer screen. At the

beginning of every trial a fixation point appeared on the screen. It was visible for 1

second and was immediately followed by a stimulus presentation. Translation latencies

were measured for every stimulus by a timer which was set to go off the moment a

stimulus word appeared on the screen. Participants were instructed to press a green key at

an onset of translation production. In case they could not translate, they were asked to

press a yellow key, which enabled them to proceed to the next stimulus. There was a one-

second break before the next trial. Each translation block was preceded by a short practice

session to ensure a consistent performance at test. Participants were tested individually.

The experimental session lasted 10 minutes.

Results


Picture Naming

Mean naming latencies for pictures named in LI and L2 were calculated. A one-

way ANOVA was performed on naming latencies using participants as random factors.








Picture naming language was a within-subjects variable. Bilinguals were more fluent

when naming pictures in LI (1,444 ms) than in L2 (1,849 ms), the observed difference

was significant, F(1,28) = 7.11,p<.05. A one-way ANOVA performed on accuracy data

showed that bilinguals were significantly more accurate when naming pictures in L1

(99.33% correct) than in L2 (90.22% correct), F(1,28) = 18.82, p<.01. Analysis of the

naming errors revealed that most errors in L1 and L2 were essentially tip-of-the-tongue

phenomena. Participants commented that they were familiar with both L1 and L2 names,

but they could not access them at the time. The analysis of the naming data showed that

although participants were slightly dominant in L1, they were equally fluent in both

languages.

Overall Translation

The data obtained in the translation task was trimmed according to the same

principle as in the Sholl et al. (1995) study; that is, latencies with values greater than 2.5

standard deviations above a given participant's mean response time were removed from

the set. In addition, latencies from incorrectly translated items were also removed.

Figure 5-1 presents mean translation latencies as a function of the direction of

translation (from L1 to L2 or from L2 to LI) and the transfer condition (i.e. whether

translation stimuli were previously named as pictures in L1, L2 or whether the stimuli

were new). As in Sholl et al. (1995) translation latencies for the new items demonstrated

some asymmetry. On average, translation times from L to L2 were 86 ms longer than

translation times from L2 to L1 (1,541 ms and 1,455 ms, respectively).








A 2 (Direction of Translation: from LI to L2 and from L2 to L1) x 3 (Transfer

Condition: concepts were previously named in L1, in L2 and presented as new) ANOVA

was performed on mean translation latencies using participants as random factors.






o

1 2
1.8 Ml.I EL2 DNet,



1- --

o 0.8
0.4

0.2
0
L1>L2 L2>L1


Figure 5-1. Overall translation data: Mean translation latencies as a function of
direction of translation and transfer condition. L1 = first language; L2 = second
language.



Direction of translation and transfer condition were considered within-subject variables.

The analysis did not show significant main effects of the direction of translation or the

transfer condition (p>.5). Neither did it reveal a significant interaction between the

variables (F
A comparison of translation times in both directions showed that only the words

that were previously named in L2 were characterized by shorter translation latencies

when compared to new words. A one-way ANOVA with transfer condition as a within-

subject variable was performed on translation latencies for each direction. The effect of








the transfer condition on translation latencies was not significant in either direction (F
Additional paired sample t-tests of translation latencies did not reveal any significant

effects (p>.1). The latency data obtained in this experiment did not replicate effects

reported by Sholl et al. (1995).


Table 5-1. Proportion of correct responses for presented (primed) and new unprimedd)
stimuli. Proportion of correct primed translations are given in parenthesis if different
from the overall accuracy values (i.e. all correct translations are considered).

Priming condition:
L1 naming L2 naming Unprimed
Ll-to-L2 translation .79 .87 (.75) .79
STD .14 .11 (.13) .12
L2-to-L1 translation .92 (.85) .79 .85
STD .10(.14) .16 .08



Accuracy data are given in Table 5-1 as a function of the direction of translation

and the transfer condition. As in the Sholl et al. (1995) study, participants were more

accurate when translating from L2 to LI than in the opposite direction. However,

contrary to the effects reported by Sholl et al. (1995), an ANOVA performed on accuracy

data demonstrated a significant interaction between the direction of translation and the

transfer condition, F(2,78) = 5.43,p<.01. The effects of the direction of translation and

the transfer condition were not significant (p>.5). A one-way ANOVA with the transfer

condition as a within-subject variable was performed on accuracy data for each direction.

The effect of the transfer condition was not significant in either direction (F
Additional paired sample t-tests revealed that the effect of prior naming only approached

significance in the L1-to-L2 direction. Participants were more accurate when translating








the concepts that were previously named in LI than in L2 (t-2.69,p=.01). The difference

between the new condition and each of the old conditions (words named in LI and L2)

was not significant (p>.05).

Primed Translation

The latencies of unprimed translations were removed from the set of the overall

translation data. Responses that did not match L2 picture names produced in the study

were removed from L -to-L2 translation data, and, conversely, responses that did not

match LI picture names were removed from L2-to-L1 translation data. Translation data

of new items remained the same as in the analysis of the overall translation data. On

average 1.46 trials were omitted in Ll-to-L2 translations, and 1 trial was omitted in L2-

to-L1 translations in a data set obtained from a single participant. A list of unprimed

translations is provided in Appendix (Table A-6). Table 5-2 presents a comparison of

translation latencies for the overall and the primed translation data sets.


Table 5-2. Mean translation latencies in seconds as a function of the direction of
translation and the transfer condition (L 1 naming, L2 naming, unprimed). Primed
translation data are given in parenthesis if different from the overall translation data.

Priming condition:
L 1 naming L2 naming Unprimed
Ll-to-L2 translation 1.55 1.33 (1.34) 1.54
STD .34 .33 (.35) .35
L2-to-LI translation 1.44 (1.42) 1.41 1.45
STD .35 (.36) .30 .37



As in the analysis of the overall translation data a 2 x 3 ANOVA was performed

on mean translation latencies using participants as random factors. Direction of








translation and transfer condition were considered as within-subject variables. As in the

analysis of the overall translation data, there were no main effects of experimental

variables. Neither direction of translation nor transfer condition were significant (F <1).

There was no significant interaction between the variables (F<1). An additional one-way

ANOVA with transfer condition as a within-subject variable did not show any significant

effects (F<1).

The primed accuracy data are given in Table 5-1 in parenthesis. A 2 x 3 ANOVA

was performed on the accuracy data with the direction of translation and the transfer

condition as within-subject variables. As in the analysis of the overall translation data, the

effects of the direction of translation and the transfer condition were not significant

(p>.5). However, contrary to the previous analysis, interaction between the direction of

translation and the transfer condition was no longer significant: p>.5. Separate one-way

ANOVA with the transfer condition and the direction of translation as within-subject

variables were performed on accuracy of the primed translation data. Neither of the

analyses revealed significant effects (F<1). Additional paired sample t-tests did not show

any significant effects (p>.5).

Discussion


The results of the experiment did not replicate effects reported by Sholl et al.

(1995). Since experimental designs were identical in the original study and in its replica,

the effects could have been influenced by differences between the two groups of

participants. Analyses of naming data demonstrated a clear difference in L2 proficiency

levels between bilinguals employed in both studies. L and L2 naming latencies obtained








from English-Spanish bilinguals in the original study demonstrated a significant

difference. Absence of such a difference in the naming data of Russian-English bilinguals

suggests that Russian-English bilinguals were more fluent in their second language than

the English-Spanish group. The smaller difference between L and L2 naming fluency

could be the reason why translation latencies of the Russian-English group did not

demonstrate significant effects of experimental variables. As was mentioned in the

discussion of the previous replication, the latency data which does not exhibit significant

translation asymmetry would be less transparent for transfer effects. In this case latency

data may not be considered a reliable measure of transfer that was predicted to occur

between tasks sharing similar processing requirements.

An alternative means of establishing whether there was a transfer between picture

naming and translation is to consider accuracy data. A comparison of accuracy data

confirmed the assumption that Russian-English bilinguals were more proficient in their

second language than bilinguals from the original study. Naming responses produced by

Russian-English bilinguals were correct at 90.2%, whereas only 65.8% of names

produces by English-Spanish bilinguals were correct. Nonetheless the accuracy data

obtained from the Russian-English group demonstrated a significant effect of the

direction of translation. In other words, Russian-English bilinguals were significantly

more accurate when naming pictures in their first language than doing the same task in

the second language. Although participants commented that in most cases their omissions

could be viewed as tip-of-the-tongue phenomena, the failure to access L2 names could

also be interpreted as an evidence of bilinguals' dominance in their first language.

Consequently, the accuracy data can be considered a reliable measure of transfer between








picture naming and translation. The model, however, does not make explicit predictions

about accuracy. The model was initially proposed to accommodate latency data, and it is

not clear whether the same predictions could be extended to a different domain, i.e.

accuracy data.

In the original experiment latency and accuracy data were affected differently by

experimental variables. An analysis of latency data showed that only the interaction

between the variables was significant, whereas the accuracy data analysis reported only

main effects of the experimental variables. The analysis of this experiment's naming data

demonstrates that accuracy was more sensitive to differences in L1 and L2 proficiency

than latency was. Therefore, the logic that is used with latency data may not apply to

accuracy.

Analyses of accuracy data were conducted separately for the overall number of

correct translations and for accuracy of primed translations. The overall accuracy data

was characterized by a significant interaction between the direction of the translation and

the transfer condition. The proportion of correct translations was higher for the words that

were previously named in the target language. Such an interaction could be considered an

effect of transfer that occurs in both directions. This interpretation conforms to the

configuration outlined in the revised hierarchical model. However, an itemized analysis

of accuracy data revealed that not all correct translations of previously named concepts

were the same as responses produced in picture naming tasks. Therefore, effects reported

in the analysis of accuracy data conducted for the overall number of correct translations

may not necessarily be a reflection of transfer due to prior picture naming. A separate

analysis of primed translations did not reveal any effect of experimental variables on








accuracy data. The reported cases of correct unprimed translation poses a serious problem

for the revised hierarchical model. The model does not have a means to account for them

mainly because it does not have a component which can handle the finer-grain issues of

representation such as polysemy and homophony.

According to the model, translation responses should be primed by prior

conceptual activation only when bilinguals employ conceptual level while translating.

Therefore accuracy of less fluent/unbalanced bilinguals should be affected in L -to-L2

translation, whereas translation accuracy of more fluent speakers should demonstrate

transfer effects in both directions, or as suggested in Chapter 4, may not show transfer

effects in either direction due to the lack of translation asymmetry. The latter was not

supported by the data reported in Sholl et al. (1995). The analysis of accuracy data of

unbalanced bilinguals demonstrated main effects of the transfer condition in both

directions, although it was maintained that bilingual participants were concept mediators

only in the direction from L1 to L2. (The latter was drawn on the basis of latency data).

However, an unequivocal interpretation of such results is possible only if it is clearly

specified whether all correct translations were the same as naming responses produced at

the encoding condition of the experiment. It is equally difficult to draw definite

predictions about accuracy on the basis of the configuration outlined in the revised

hierarchical model. For instance, in L -to-L2 translation, concept activation by naming

picture in LI does not ensure the accurate connection between a concept node and an L2

word. If a concept is named in L2, the connection between a concept and its L2

representation is activated. However, the configuration of connections proposed in the

revised hierarchical model does not imply that a connection between a concept and an LI








word will also be established during L2 naming, in which case, accurate translation is

possible only when L1 stimulus will activate exactly the same representation as the one

activated in L2 naming. For example, activation of a connection between the concept

'stool' and its LI lexical representation taburet did not always ensure an accurate L1-to-

L2 translation (i.e. stool). Responses that were considered as inaccurate were omissions

and productions of the basic level term chair. On the other hand, an activation of the

concept 'moon' in L2 naming did not always help to establish a connection between the

concept and its LI representation mes 'ac. As a result, a different concept ('month') was

activated upon presentation of the Ll stimulus mec ac, and a response provided in L1-to-

L2 translation was different from the name produced in L2 naming.

Analyses of the overall and the primed accuracy data revealed that the data cannot

be used to support the revised hierarchical model. The effect of transfer reported in the

analysis of the overall number of correct responses and the absence of thereof in the

analysis of primed data suggests that there are some factors of bilingual performance that

were not identified on the basis of the configuration of lexical-conceptual connections

promoted by the revised hierarchical model. Effects reported in the accuracy data

analyses remain unaccountable mainly because the model does not possess a mechanism

that can (1) explain why translation stimuli may not activate the same concepts as the

ones activated during picture naming, and (2) predict cases in which prior picture naming

fails to prime target translations. One solution to this problem is to define a framework

that will recognize issues of language-specific lexical-conceptual organization as central

to the issue of lexical access.













CHAPTER 6
RELATION ASSESSMENT: A TEST OF THE PROPOSED MODEL OF
CONCEPTUAL STRUCTURE MAPPING

Earlier proposed models of bilingual memory were designed to accommodate

experimental evidence arising from specific task demands on single-word stimuli.

Latency data obtained from data-driven and conceptually-driven task was taken as

evidence of a dissociation between lexical and conceptual processing of word stimuli.

However, as demonstrated in the reported replications of Sholl et al. (1995), latency alone

can not provide unambiguous evidence of bilingual processing patterns. The present

model of conceptual structure mapping was proposed to account for the shortcomings of

earlier models. It addresses the stimulus processing requirements associated with

language-specific differences in the relational network organization of lexical stimuli. It

also addresses instability of prototype effects resulting from graded structure of lexical

categories.

The model and its predictions were tested in a relation assessment experiment. In

this experiment word pairs to be judged for their semantic relatedness were presented in

contextually-embedded (primed) and isolated unprimedd) conditions. The relation

assessment task was selected because it can demonstrate prototype effects and degrees of

activation spreading arising in the relational organization of the target word stimuli.

Prototype effects are generally associated with two things: the senses of a stimulus that

exhibit higher perceptual salience or the senses that are most often associated with the








given lexical forms. Hence, a word pair with closely related prototypical senses should

yield shorter latencies. Among the causes of this is the immediate availability of the

target senses upon the activation of the stimulus's relational organization. Conversely, a

stimulus pair with related nonprototypical senses is more likely to generate a greater

number of negative judgments or longer latencies in the isolated condition. Contextual

embedding affects the graded structure of stimulus lexical categories by restricting

prototype effects to domains associated with the activated contextual frames. The

activation of a relevant contextual frame eliminates the need for an extensive search in

the relational network of a stimulus lexical item. Consequently, it also provides quicker

access to the target conceptual representation. Thus shorter response latencies were

expected in the primed condition of the experiment.

According to the proposed model the data should demonstrate specific patterns

associated with the additional processing demands placed on bilingual speakers. The

model maintains that differences in response patterns of bilinguals are conditioned by the

activation threshold in the dominant conceptual structure. Therefore a bilingual's

performance should provide evidence for the relational organization in the bilingual's

dominant conceptual structure. Two predictions were made. The evidence should be

particularly salient in the isolated condition. However, since prototype effects associated

with a particular organization in the dominant conceptual structure are presumably

affected by contextually embedding the lexical stimuli, the data obtained from bilingual

and monolingual speakers in the primed condition should reveal comparable patterns of

activation.








Experiment 3


Method


Participants

Four groups of monolingual and bilingual speakers participated in the experiment.

The participants were students and visiting scholars at the University of Florida. The

fluency of bilingual speakers was at the level that fulfills the English language

requirement at the University of Florida, which corresponds to a score of 550 or higher on

TOEFL (Test of English as a Foreign Language). The monolingual participants, who

were taken from a pool of general psychology students, received one experimental credit

for their participation in the study; the bilingual participants did not receive any

compensation. A group of nineteen native speakers of American English not fluent in any

second language and a group of fifteen native Russian speakers fluent in English were

tested in the unprimed condition. A group of twelve American English monolingual

speakers and a group of thirteen native Russian speakers fluent in English were tested in

the primed condition.

Materials

The corpus of stimuli in the unprimed condition included 51 target and 49 filler

English word pairs. The target word pairs comprised three groups. These groups were

categorized as closely related, distantly related, and unrelated, with 17 pairs in each

group. Closely related word pairs were selected in such a way that the prototypical

meanings of the two lexical items were closely related (e.g. 'fortune' 'wealth'). In








distantly related pairs the prototypical meaning of one lexical item was closely related to

a non-prototypical meaning of the other lexical item in the pair (e.g. 'limit' 'ceiling'). In

unrelated word pairs none of the senses in the networks of the stimulus lexical items were

considered to be related (e.g. 'juice' 'sock'). The relatedness categorization was based

on relatedness ratings of three native speakers of English and were found to be in

agreement with primary meanings of the standard variety of American English, as

reflected in the New Webster's Dictionary.

The corpus of the stimuli in the primed condition consisted of 51 target and 14

filler English word pairs, which were preceded by 65 sentences. The target word pairs

were the same as in the unprimed condition. The sentences used as primes were intended

to activate contextual frames, highlighting target conceptual representations. For

example, the word pair 'limit' -'ceiling' was preceded by the sentence "The

administration has introduced new ceilings on the value of preferential contracts for

minorities." The sentences were selected from authentic English texts available through

LEXIS/NEXIS online news service. Stimulus materials used in this and other relation

assessment experiments are provided in Appendix (Table A-7).

AnMaratus

The experiment was conducted on an IBM compatible notebook computer with a

24 cm color active matrix display. The experiment ran a computer program written in

Quickbasic. The instructions and the stimuli were presented in white 0.5 x 0.5 cm letters

on blue background.








Procedure

The experiment conformed to a 3 x 2 x 2 mixed factorial design. The independent

variable manipulated within participants had three values corresponding to the distance

between the prototypical meanings of the words presented in a pair. The word pairs were

grouped into three sets: closely related, distantly related and unrelated. Binary language

(monolingual vs bilingual) and priming unprimedd vs primed) conditions were distributed

between four groups of participants. Reaction times in milliseconds and percent of

positive judgments in the relatedness decision were assessed as dependent variables.

In the unprimed condition, the words constituting a pair were presented

consecutively. Stimulus and interstimulus intervals were set automatically at 1 second.

The timer was set to go off the moment the second word appeared on the screen.

Participants were instructed to make judgments of the semantic relatedness between the

words. They had to respond as soon as they read and understood the second word in a

pair. Response keys marked by "yes" and "no" caps were also color coded, green and red

respectively. The "yes" and "no" response keys were located at opposite ends of the

computer keyboard to ensure accuracy of responses. Left and right assignment of "yes"

and "no" keys was counterbalanced across participants. Participants were instructed to

press a white key in the center of the keyboard if they did not know the wordss. Each

trial was followed by an automatically set break that allowed the participant to self-pace

the experiment. In the primed condition every trial was preceded by a sentence or two.

The sentences comprised less than four lines on a computer screen. In order to ensure that

participants attended to the sentence stimuli, each sentence was followed by a








comprehension question with four possible answers. Responses were made by pressing

the number of a chosen answer. The computer recorded only the correctness of the

response to the comprehension question. Both experimental sessions were preceded by a

training session which allowed participants to familiarize themselves with the task.

Participants were tested individually. The experiment lasted from 10 to 20 minutes in the

unprimed condition and from 40 to 50 minutes in the primed condition.

Results and Discussion


The data from participants who had mean reaction times higher than 3 seconds for

monolingual speakers or 5 seconds for bilingual speakers and a standard deviation higher

than 2 were removed from the set as outlying. To ensure comparable levels of second

language proficiency, the data from bilingual speakers who provided "don't know"

responses to more than 10 % of the stimulus pairs and who scored lower than 80 % on the

comprehension test in the primed condition, were also removed from the set. The

remaining data from 17 monolingual and 12 bilingual speakers in the unprimed condition

and 8 monolingual and 8 bilingual speakers in the primed condition were analyzed.

Analyses of variance (ANOVA) were performed on mean response times and percentage

of positive judgments using participants as random factors.

Relatedness judgments

Figure 6-1 presents the percentage of positive judgments as a function of network

distance and priming for both bilingual and monolingual speakers. The results

demonstrate a highly significant main effect of network distance, F(2,82)=65.377,

p<.001. Although the effect of priming was only marginally significant (F(1,41)=6.519,








p<.05), the interaction between network distance and priming was significant,

F(2,82)=5.170, p<.008. Priming made some distant meanings more salient and, as a

result, the words in the category of distantly related word pairs were judged as related

approximately 20% more often in the primed condition than in the unprimed condition by

both monolingual and bilingual groups of speakers.


unrelated


distant


Figure 6-1. Mean percentage of positive judgments as a function of network distance
for bilingual and monolingual speakers in unprimed and primed conditions.



There was no main effect of the language variable (F<1), indicating that the

response types provided by monolingual and bilingual speakers were equivalent. Separate

ANOVA were performed on bilingual and monolingual data to discover possible

differential effects of distance and priming on different groups of speakers. The analysis

of the bilingual data revealed main effects of distance and priming, F(2,54)=86.587,

p<.01, and F(1,54)=7.668, p<.001 respectively, and a significant interaction between


---e-primed monolingual
- --primed bilingual
- O -unprimed monolingual
- unprimed bilingual








distance and priming (F(2,54)=5.594, p<.01). The analysis of the monolingual data

demonstrate only main effect of distance (F(2,69)=24.706, p<.01). Although the main

effect of language was not significant, the separate analyses demonstrated that relatedness

judgments provided by bilinguals were greatly affected by the prior presentation of target

lexical items in meaningful contexts in the primed condition. For example, the percent of

positive judgments provided by monolingual speakers for the prototypical and

nonprototypical meaning in the word pair 'ceiling'-'limit' increased from 75 to 83

following presentation of the prime sentence "The administration has introduced new

ceilings on the value of preferential contracts for minorities," while the percent of

positive judgments provided by bilingual speakers increased from 27 to 67 percent.

The activation of a particular meaning relation within a precisely defined

contextual frame diminishes the negative lexical transfer that results from straightforward

mapping of incompatible representations in the conceptual structures of a bilingual.

Relatedness judgments obtained in the experiment were shown to be greatly influenced

by the availability of contextual cues. Paired-sample t-tests conducted on the data

produced in response to distantly related word pairs demonstrated a significant difference

in responses produced by bilingual and monolingual speakers in the unprimed condition,

t=2.02, p=.05, and a remarkable agreement between the two groups in the primed

condition, p>. .

The processing differences demonstrated between the group of English

monolingual speakers and the group of Russian-English bilingual speakers may have two

interpretations. They may result either from mapping the two conceptual structures or

from the general processing limitations of bilinguals. The proposed model suggests that








conceptual structure mapping should demonstrate processing patterns which reflect

language-specific relational organization. The model maintains that the effects of lexical-

conceptual organization in the dominant language of bilinguals are most conspicuous

when the target lexical items are presented in isolation. As predicted by the model,

bilinguals demonstrated results different from the result produced by monolinguals when

the target lexical items were not accompanied by any information about their relational

organization within the target conceptual structure.

Response latencies

Figure 6-2 presents the mean reaction times as a function of network distance for

bilingual and monolingual speakers in unprimed and primed conditions. As predicted, the





2.2
---primed monolingual
0 2 primed bilingual
0 -unprimed- monolingual
1.8 -- 0- -unprimed- bilingual
*. ............. .. ..
S 1.6
S 1.4

1.2


unrelated distant close




Figure 6-2. Mean response latencies (in seconds) as a function of network distance
for bilingual and monolingual speakers in unprimed and primed conditions.








F(1,41)=7.282, p<.001. Response time latencies of bilingual speakers were

approximately 300 ms longer than response time latencies of monolingual speakers in

both conditions. The main effect of the language variable supports the assumption that

longer latencies produced by bilingual speakers are conditioned by the processing

demands placed on bilingual speakers. Processing L2 lexical material requires operation

in the conceptual structure characterized by a higher activation threshold. It also requires

the suppression of the dominant conceptual structure, which may access a relational

network incompatible with the target conceptual organization. As a result, bilinguals

require additional time to process L2 stimuli.

The response times also demonstrated a significant main effect of network

distance, F(2,82)=5.635, p<.005.On the average, the participants required 90 ms longer to

respond to distantly related word pairs than to closely related word pairs, and they

required 80 ms longer to respond to unrelated word pairs than to distantly related word

pairs. The results support the prediction that the prototypical meanings of the lexical

items are accessed faster than nonprototypical meanings. The paired sample t-test

demonstrated statistical significance in response times between closely and distantly

related word pairs (t=2.872, p=.06) and between closely related and unrelated word pairs

(t=3.322, p=.02). The latency difference between distantly related and unrelated word

pairs was not statistically significant. This fact indicates that speakers abandon the search

when the accessed nonprototypical meanings in the networks of the two lexical items fail

to match. Priming reduced the response latencies of bilinguals and monolinguals by

approximately 150 and 180 ms, respectively. However, the effect of priming was not

statistically significant, p>.1. A ANOVA performed on the response latencies of








monolingual speakers demonstrated a main effect of priming, F(1,69)=7.355,p<.01. As

predicted, the latencies of monolingual speakers reflected prototype effects in the

unprimed condition by providing significantly longer latencies in response to distantly

related word pairs. The prototype effects were significantly reduced following

presentation of a priming sentence which activated the contextual frame of a target

nonprototypical sense in a distantly related word pair. As a result, nonprototypical

meanings were accessed faster in the primed than in the unprimed condition. Analysis of

response times produced by bilingual speakers did not show any significant effects. The

effect of priming on the response latencies of bilingual speakers was not significant. It

could be obscured by additional activation within L1 conceptual structure.

The analyses of response times did not reveal significant interactions between the

variables and conditions of the experiment: two-way interactions between language and

priming, network distance and language, and network distance and priming were not

significant (F
priming only approached significance at F(2,82)=2.193,p<.118. The absence of

significant interactions may be due to the ceiling effect resulting from generally large

response latencies produced by both monolingual and bilingual speakers. One possible

way to eliminate the ceiling effect is to reduce the time of stimuli presentation and the

duration of the interstimulus interval. In this experiment the time elapsed from the onset

of the first word to the onset of the second word in a pair was 2 seconds. This is a

significant amount of time to conduct extensive search in the semantic relational network

of the first stimulus word. Shorter presentation times will require participants to attend to

the next stimulus before they are able to consider a number of possible meanings








associated with the given word form. In this case response latencies produced by

bilingual and monolingual speakers in primed and unprimed conditions may manifest

significantly greater differences than are reported with the present design.

Experiment 4


This experiment was conducted to test the hypothesis that the results obtained

from bilingual speakers in the unprimed condition are influenced by the dominant

conceptual structure. The judgments provided for closely related word pairs were

expected to exhibit similar patterns across different language groups for two reasons.

First, there is a conspicuous relation between the prototypical meanings of the words in

the pairs. There is also the similarity in relational organization pertaining to perceptual

salience. Similarly, unrelated word pairs were predicted to demonstrate small differences

because of the obvious incompatibility in meaning. The differences in judgments

provided for distantly related word pairs were expected to exhibit the patterns conditioned

by the relational organization of the conceptual structures of bilinguals' dominant

languages. The semantic relations between prototypical and nonprototypical senses in

distantly related pairs of the target language may not be present in the relational

organization of the equivalent lexical items in bilinguals' dominant languages.

Consequently, bilinguals with different dominant conceptual structures were expected to

demonstrate distinct relatedness judgments.








Method


Participants

Thirteen native Spanish speakers fluent in English and twelve English

monolingual speakers were taken from the pool of general psychology students at the

University of Florida. The students received one experimental credit for their

participation in the study.

Apparatus and Materials

Apparatus and materials were the same as in the unprimed condition of

Experiment 3.

Procedure

The procedure was identical to the procedure in the unprimed condition of

Experiment 3. The experiment lasted from 10 to 15 minutes.

Results and Discussion


The results obtained from the groups of Spanish-English bilinguals and English

monolinguals were analyzed together with the results obtained from Russian-English

bilinguals in the unprimed condition of Experiment 3.

A 3x3 mixed factorial design was used in the analysis the data. As in Experiment

3, the within-subject independent variable had three values corresponding to the distance

between the prototypical meanings of the words in a pair, i.e. closely related, distantly

related, or unrelated. The language variable (dominant language) was distributed between

the three groups of English, Russian and Spanish native speakers. Reaction times in








milliseconds and the percent of positive judgments in relatedness decisions were

assessed as dependent variables.

The data were trimmed according to the criteria adopted in Experiment 3. The

remaining data from 8 monolingual English speakers, 10 Spanish English and 12

Russian-English bilingual speakers were analyzed. ANOVA was performed on mean

reaction times and percentage of positive judgments using participants as random factors.

Relatedness Judgments

Figure 6-3 demonstrates the percentage of positive judgments as a function of

network distance for the three groups of speakers. The results demonstrated a highly

significant main effect of the network distance, F(2,81)=88.850, p<.001. Although the


S- English
-U- Russian
-- Spanish

unrelated distant close


Figure 6-3. Mean percentage of positive judgments on word meaning relatedness as
a function of organizational differences in conceptual structures of bilingual and
monolingual speakers. (English = English monolinguals, Russian = Russian-English
bilinguals, Spanish = Spanish-English bilinguals)








analysis of positive judgments on word relatedness demonstrated the effect of language as

non-significant, paired sample t-tests demonstrated that the speakers of the three

languages provided different judgments about word relatedness in pairs. Thus, the tests

demonstrated statistical significance in judgments provided by English monolinguals and

Russian-English bilinguals for unrelated and distantly related word pairs (t=1.936,p-.08,

and t=-2.587,p=.02, respectively). The responses of Russian-English and Spanish-

English speakers revealed marginally significant difference in their judgments for only

distantly related word pairs (t=1.622, p=. 1). The judgments of distantly related words

provided by English monolinguals and Spanish-English bilinguals only approached

significance at t=-1.00, p=. 1.

The absence of a significant difference in the judgments of English monolinguals

and Spanish-English bilinguals as compared to the difference observed in the judgments

of English monolinguals and Russian-English bilinguals can be a result of greater

similarity in the relational organization of the stimulus English lexical items and their

Spanish equivalents. The greater differences in responses of English monolinguals and

Russian-English bilinguals can also be attributed to significantly less extensive

experience with the L2 conceptual structure. Unlike Russian-English bilinguals, Spanish-

English monolinguals attended high schools in the US and considered themselves to be

equally fluent in both languages. One may argue that the latter may serve as counter-

evidence for the hypothesis being tested; that is, the differences in judgments of different

language groups reflects the proficiency level of bilingual speakers. However, both

bilingual groups produced comparable response latencies (Figure 5-4), which were

significantly longer than the latencies produced by monolingual speakers. The combined








evidence suggests that proficiency is only one of the factors affecting bilingual

performance. Another factor is distinct relational organization within the conceptual

structures of a bilingual's two languages. As predicted, the major differences were

demonstrated in the relatedness judgments of the distantly related word pairs. These

differences and the marginally significant interaction between language and distance

variables (F(4,81)=2.382,p<.5) support the assumption that language-specific relational

organization influences the performance of bilingual speakers and therefore should not be

disregarded by models of bilingual memory.

Response latencies

Figure 6-4 presents the mean response times as a function of the semantic network

distance for bilingual and monolingual speakers. As in Experiment 3, the response times

demonstrated a main effect of language in the between-subject condition, F(2,81)=

12.440, p<.01. The reported significance of the language variable was due to a great

difference between the response times of bilingual and monolingual speakers. The

response latencies of bilingual speakers were approximately 650 ms longer than the

response latencies of monolingual speakers. The paired sample t-tests between the

response latencies of Russian-English and Spanish-English bilinguals were performed to

investigate whether language-specific organization causes differences in the response

latencies of bilingual speakers. The tests did not reveal significant differences in response

times of the two bilingual groups. This may be due to an overall increase in response

times associated with second language processing. Unlike monolingual speakers,

bilingual speakers require additional processing time to recognize the differences between








the semantic structures of the two languages and to suppress the dominant language in

cases where its structure does not coincide with the structure of the language being used.


unrelated


distant


Figure 6-4. Mean response latencies (in seconds) as a function of organizational
differences in conceptual structures of bilingual and monolingual speakers. (English
= English monolinguals, Russian = Russian-English bilinguals, Spanish = Spanish-
English bilinguals)



The effect of network distance was not significant (p>.5). The paired sample t-

test between the values of the semantic network distance variable demonstrated statistical

significance only in the response times of Spanish-English bilinguals between closely and

distantly related word pairs (t- 2.235, p=.01). The latency differences between other

conditions were not statistically significant. The analyses of response times did not reveal

significant interactions between language and distance variables. As suggested earlier, the

fairly long stimulus and inter-stimulus intervals (totaling 2 seconds) might have been why


--English
- Russian
-*- Spanish








some effects were not significant. Shorter stimulus and interstimulus intervals may not

provide enough time for participants to explore the semantic networks of the stimulus

lexical items. Furthermore, bilingual speakers may not have enough time to recognize

differences in the lexical-conceptual organization of L1 and L2 conceptual structures.

Therefore, experimental results may exhibit greater language-specific differences in both

relatedness judgments and latency data produced by monolingual and bilingual speakers.

Experiment 5


This experiment was conducted to examine whether shorter stimulus and inter-

stimulus intervals would reveal greater language-specific differences in the data of

bilingual and monolingual speakers. In addition, in the primed condition an intervening

comprehension task was removed to obtain more salient priming effects.

Method


Participants

Twenty seven monolingual speakers of American English and 38 Russian-English

bilinguals participated in the experiment. All Russian-English bilinguals were native

speakers of Russian who had lived in an English-speaking environment for at least 3.5

years (6.2 on average) and had studied English as a foreign language for at least 2 years

(5.8 on average) before coming to the US. The age of the participants ranged from 8 to

39. At the beginning of each experimental session, bilingual participants were requested

to fill out a questionnaire about their language learning experiences and were also asked

to evaluate their L2 proficiency. Participants noted their dominance in Russian. They did








not consider themselves as balanced bilinguals. They rated their second language

proficiency at an advanced level for most aspects of L2 production and at a near-native

level in some areas of L2 production and most areas of L2 comprehension. No

compensation was offered for participation.

Materials

Two hundred word pairs were generated by the experimenter on the basis of the

stimulus materials used in the pervious relation assessment experiments. Sixteen native

speakers of American English who did not participate in the experimental session were

asked to rate the meaning relatedness of the words in a pair. Ratings were performed on a

seven-point scale. The maximum value (7) was used to denote the greatest relatedness,

and the minimum value (1) was used to indicate the absence of such a relationship.

Stimulus materials were selected on the basis of rating results. Forty word pairs rated 5 or

higher with standard deviation of less than 1.5 were selected as the group of closely

related words. Forty word pairs rated 2 or lower with a standard deviation of less than 1.5

were selected as the group of unrelated words. A group of distantly related words

comprised forty word pairs with a mean rating between 2.5 and 4.5 and with standard

deviation higher than 1.5. In each group, there were thirty target and ten filler word pairs.

A priming sentence was provided for each stimulus pair. The sentences were

selected from authentic English texts available through the LEXIS/NEXIS online news

service. The sentences comprised less than four lines on a computer screen. The sentences

were not rated according to their potential to prime particular relationships between the

words in a pair. The stimulus materials were divided into two sets with an equal number








of unrelated, closely and distantly related words in each set. Unrelated, closely and

distantly related words appeared in random order. Both sets were presented to all

participants. The sets were counterbalanced across priming conditions in such a way that

half of the participants responded to set 1 in the unprimed condition and to set 2 in the

primed condition, while the other half of the participants responded to set 2 in the

unprimed condition and set 1 in the primed condition.

Apparatus

The apparatus was the same as in Experiment 3.

Procedure

The experimental design was the same as in Experiment 3. The stimuli were

presented in two blocks. In the first block the stimuli were given in the unprimed

condition, and in the second block the stimuli appeared in the primed condition. There

were 60 trials in each condition.

In the unprimed condition a fixation point was shown on the screen at the

beginning of every trial. It was visible for 1 second and was immediately followed by the

stimulus. The first word in a pair was visible for 340 ms and was followed by the second

word after a 60 ms inter-stimulus interval. The timer was set to go off the moment the

second word appeared on the screen. Participants were instructed to press color-coded

keys as they made a decision: green for 'yes' responses, red for 'no' responses, and white

if they did not know the wordss. The white key was positioned in the center of the

keyboard. Left and right assignment of the red and green keys was counter balanced








across participants. There was a one-second break before the next trial. On average, it

took about five minutes to complete the task in the unprimed block.

In the primed condition every trial was preceded by a sentence or two. The

sentences comprised less than four lines on a computer screen. Participants were

instructed to read a sentence at a comfortable speed. They could proceed to an

experimental trial by pressing the space bar. The experimental task and the procedure

were the same as in the unprimed condition.

Both conditions were preceded by a short practice session to ensure consistent

performance in the test. Participants were tested individually. The experimental session

lasted from 25 to 30minutes.

Results and Discussion


Latencies with values greater than 2.5 standard deviations above a given

participant's mean response time were excluded from the analysis. Data sets of the

participant who did not respond to more than 20 % of trials (including those that were

removed when the latency data was trimmed) were not included in the analysis. The

remaining data from 36 bilingual and 26 monolingual speakers were analyzed. Half of the

data were obtained in response to stimulus set 1 and the other half was produced in

response to stimulus set 2. Since the purpose of the experiment was to demonstrate

language-specific and context effects on word stimulus processing, ANOVA were

performed on the same set of stimuli using participants as random factors. As a result,

separate analyses were performed for each stimulus set.









Stimulus Set 1


Figure 6-5 presents the proportion of positive responses on word meaning

relatedness as a function of organizational differences in conceptual structures of

bilingual and monolingual speakers. A 3 x 2 x 2 ANOVA was performed on proportion

of positive responses using participants as random factors. As predicted, the analysis


1.00
4 0.90
g 0.80
0
- 0.70
0 0.60
0.50
g 0.40
o 0.30
S0.20
0.10
0.00


Unrelated


Distant


Close


Figure 6-5. Stimulus set 1: Proportion of positive responses on word meaning
relatedness as a function of organizational differences in conceptual structures of
bilingual and monolingual speakers.



demonstrated significant main effects of distance and language (F(2,174)=303.82, p<.01

and F(1,174)=7.40, p<.01, respectively). The effect of priming only approached

significance, F(1,174)=4.20, p<. ;). Two-way interactions between distance and

language, distance and priming, and language and priming, and a three-way interaction


----------------_^' ---






Bilingual Unprimed
/- -- Bilingual Primed
0 Monolingual Unprimed
-- M-- Monolingual Primed








between distance, language and priming were also significant (F(2,174)=9.29, p<.01;

F(2,174)=10.89,p<.01; F(1,174)=622.04,p<.01; and F(2,174)=7.19, p<.01;

respectively). As in Experiment 3, the responses of bilingual and monolingual speakers

were equally affected by priming. The positive judgments provided for distantly and

closely related words were significantly facilitated by the prior activation of a relevant

contextual frame. Facilitation was greater in responses to distantly related words. On

average, there was an 18 % increase in positive judgments provided for distantly related

words as compared to a 7 % increase in positive judgments provided for closely related

words. The proportion of positive responses to unrelated words was not affected by

priming. The findings provide additional evidence for a network configuration as adopted

by the proposed model. Since the meaning relation in closely related word pairs exists

between prototypical senses, the relationship can be easily established, even when the

lexical items are presented in isolation. For distantly related words, the relation exists

between non-prototypical meanings and may not always be established without sufficient

activation of a relevant contextual frame. Therefore, contextual priming should be

especially beneficial for distantly related word pairs. On the other hand, contextual

priming should not affect decisions provided in response to unrelated words. Presumably

this results from the fact that the senses in the relational networks of such lexical items

cannot be used to establish a relation in meaning.

The results also demonstrated greater language-specific differences. Although

only English stimuli were presented, the responses of Russian-English bilinguals suggest

a substantial activation of LI lexical-conceptual organization. The relations between L2

words might be obscured because of a distant or nonexistent relation between equivalent








L2 lexical items. For example, the meaning relations between closely related words in

pairs such as 'watch' 'guard', 'sharp' 'clever', 'drain' 'empty', are not as easily

established between the Russian equivalents of the individual lexical items. Distant

meaning relations between words in pairs such as 'shoulder' 'edge', 'bug' -'defect',

'bed' 'foundation', 'foot' 'base' do not exist between the Russian equivalents of these

lexical items. As a result, the proportion of positive responses in the bilingual data was

significantly lower than the proportion of positive responses in the monolingual data.

Furthermore, the magnitude of contextual effects was different in the data of the two

language groups. The latter was reflected in a highly significant interaction between

language and priming. Positive responses of monolingual speakers to distantly related

words demonstrated a 21 % increase in the primed condition as compared to a 16 %

increase reported in the data of Russian-English bilinguals.

Figure 6-6 presents mean response latencies of bilingual and monolingual

speakers as a function of priming and network distance. A 3 x 2 x 2 ANOVA performed

on mean response latencies using participants as random factors demonstrated that effects

of distance, language and priming were not significant (p>.5). Although two-way

interactions between distance and language, and distance and priming were not

significant (F<1), an interaction between language and priming was significant,

F(1,174)=9.56, p<.01. A three-way interaction between distance, language, and priming

was not significant (p>.5). As predicted, the latency data was also affected by shorter

stimulus and inter-stimulus intervals. As compared to the latency data reported in

Experiments 3 and 4, there was no significant difference in the latencies of monolingual

and bilingual speakers. It may be argued that the latency effect could be a function of










2.40
4 -Bilingual Unprimed
g 2.20 Bilingual Primed
S 2.00 O -Monolingual Unprimed
S .0 -Monolingual Primed
1.80
1.60
1.40
C
S 1.20
1.00
Unrelated Distant Close





Figure 6-6. Stimulus set 1: Mean response latencies of bilingual and monolingual
speakers as a function of priming and network distance.



bilingual fluency; that is, more fluent bilinguals may produce latencies comparable to the

latencies of monolingual speakers. Nonetheless, fluency cannot be the only factor

affecting the latencies of bilingual participants. As shown in Experiment 4, regardless of

the difference in L2 fluency, Russian-English and Spanish-English bilinguals produced

equivalent latencies. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that the shorter response

latencies were triggered by shorter stimulus and interstimulus intervals. Since shorter

presentation times did not provide an opportunity for a thorough network search,

responses of bilingual and monolingual speakers demonstrated more salient language-

specific and contextual effects as compared to the data reported in Experiments 3 and 4,

where longer response latencies were associated with less conspicuous language-specific

and contextual effects. Furthermore, contrary to the findings reported in Experiments 3








and 4, response latencies of both bilingual and monolingual speakers were slightly longer

in the primed condition than in the unprimed condition. A slight increase in processing

times in the primed condition might be due to a shorter break between the presentation

of a sentence prime and a stimulus word pair. Since an intervening comprehension task

was not used in this experiment, the relation between a prime and a stimulus word pair

became more apparent. Some effects reported in the latency data might reflect a strategy

adopted by the participants. Once the participants noticed that context could help to

establish the meaning relation between word stimuli, they were compelled to discover a

meaning relation in all pairs. The longer latencies produced by monolingual speakers in

the unprimed condition in response to unrelated stimuli could be due to such strategic

processing.

Stimulus Set 2

Figure 6-7 presents the proportion of positive responses on word meaning

relatedness as a function of organizational differences in the conceptual structures of

bilingual and monolingual speakers. A 3 x 2 x 2 ANOVA was performed on the

proportion of positive responses using participants as random factors. The analysis

demonstrated significant main effects of distance and language (F(2,174)=364.51, p<.01

and F(l,174)=17.93,p<.01, respectively). The effect of priming was only marginally

significant, F(1,174)=5.50, p<.05;). Two-way interactions between distance and

language, distance and priming, and language and priming, and a three-way interaction

between distance, language and priming were also significant (F(2,174)=19.58,p<.O1;

F(2,174)=25.79,p<.01; F(1,174)=762.68,p<.01; and F(2,174)=16.83,p<.01;








respectively). Contrary to the data obtained for set 1, the responses of monolingual

speakers to set 2 demonstrated a negative priming effect. That is, the proportion of

positive responses in the unprimed condition was greater than in the primed condition.

According to the proposed model, such an effect could be due to the activation of

incompatible contextual frames. In other words, target relations between word stimuli

were obscured by the contexts provided.


1.00
S0.90
0.80
0.70
S 0.60
0.50
S0.40
0 0.30
. 0.20
S0.10
0.00


Unrelated


Distant


Close


Figure 6-7. Stimulus set 2: Proportion of positive responses on word meaning
relatedness as a function of organizational differences in conceptual structures of
bilingual and monolingual speakers.



A post hoc rating of sentence stimuli was performed by fifteen native speakers of

American English in order to uncover any incompatibility between the contextual frames

activated by priming sentences and the target meaning relations. Only the sentences that

were used to prime meaning relations between closely and distantly related words were


*.O






--Bilingual Unprimed
-Bilingual Primed
S-- Monolingual Unprime
o0 Monolingual Primed








rated. The sentences were rated on a seven-point scale according to the degree of

facilitation they could provide. The maximum value (7) was used to indicate maximum

facilitation, and the minimum value (1) was used to denote the lack of any facilitation. On

average, set 1 and set 2 were rated at 5.14 and 4.58, respectively. A t-test performed on

the two means demonstrated a significant difference between the values assigned to the

sentences in the two sets, t = 2.669, p<.02. As follows from the model and the analysis of

priming sentences, the negative effect of priming reported for stimulus set 2 was due to

the greater number of sentences that activated contextual frames incompatible with the

target meaning relations.

Unlike the monolingual group, Russian-English bilinguals demonstrated a

positive priming effect. Nonetheless, the responses of bilingual and monolingual speakers

demonstrated greater compatibility in the primed condition than in the unprimed

condition. This fact supports the prediction that the data obtained from bilingual and

monolingual speakers in the primed condition should reveal comparable patterns of

activation.

Figure 6-8 presents mean response latencies as a function of priming and network

distance. A 3 x 2 x 2 ANOVA performed on mean response latencies using participants

as random factors demonstrated that only the interaction between language and priming

was significant, F(l,174)=10.02, p<.01. The effects of other variables and their

interactions were not significant (p>.5). As with the relatedness judgments, the latency

data of bilingual and monolingual speakers demonstrated greater compatibility in the

primed condition. In the unprimed condition, the processing patterns of bilingual and

monolingual speakers were influenced by dominant conceptual structures. Conversely, in








the primed condition the processing patterns were constrained by activated contextual

frames. This fact provides additional support for the assumption that embedding the

lexical stimuli in a context reduces the prototype effects associated with a particular

organization within the dominant conceptual structure.


- 1.80
1.70
1.60
C, 1.50
S 1.40
8 1.30
O 1.20
1.10
1.00


Unrelated


Distant


Close


Figure 6-8. Stimulus set 2: Mean response latencies as a function of priming and
network distance.



The relation assessment experiments reported here were conducted to evaluate the

relational network approach proposed for the model of conceptual structure mapping.

Relational networks were demonstrated to be sensitive to the factors causing instability in

the graded structure of lexical categories. The relational network organization of the

bilingual lexicon constitutes a dynamic structure able to accommodate language-specific

and language-independent patterns of bilingual production.


U'
-* a Bilingual Unprimed
--- Bilingual Primed
- Monolingual Unprimed O
-8- Monolingual Primed













CHAPTER 7
GENERAL DISCUSSION

The model of conceptual structure mapping was proposed to provide an alternate

approach to bilingual lexical and conceptual representation. In particular, it was designed

to account for the activation patterns in the memory of bilingual speakers which can not

be accounted for by the models that maintain a strict dichotomy between lexical and

conceptual levels of processing. The proposed model contends that the patterns of lexical

and conceptual activation in bilinguals are largely determined by an interaction between

language specific lexical-conceptual representations. Such interaction is a function of a

number of structural and developmental factors. The role of these factors is explicated in

the structural and developmental assumptions of the model.

The structural assumption is elaborated on the basis of the conceptual structure

notion that offers a means of accounting for the prototype effects that arise in the graded

structures of lexical categories in various socio-pragmatic and functional contexts. The

developmental assumption offers a means of accounting for the differences observed

between the performances of more and less fluent bilinguals. A bilingual has conceptual

structures associated with L1 and L2, which I call CSI and CS2. The mapping metaphor

describes CS2 development as a process of mapping L2 lexical items onto converging

conceptual representations in CS1. CS2 development is a result of the development and

expansion of relational networks and inter- network connections. Relational networks of








individual lexical items evolve when a lexical item is consistently used in different

contextual frames. Areas in CS and CS2 that are mutually incompatible have been

demonstrated to be the major reason for production deficits such as negative transfer and

longer response latencies.

Since the notion of conceptual structure is central to the problems of lexical-

conceptual activation, an experimental data analysis without a detailed account of the

bilinguals' response types is incomplete. As demonstrated in the experiments reported

here, a quantitative analysis of latency and accuracy data do not provide adequate

evidence of the processes that govern lexical and conceptual access in the bilingual

memory. Thus, in the first replication of the Sholl et al. (1995) study, separate analyses of

the overall and primed responses in the translation data provide discriminative results.

Since the analysis of the primed accuracy did not reveal any effects of priming, the

effects reported in the overall data analysis can not be interpreted as transfer from picture

naming to translation. Similarly, an analysis of the primed accuracy data in the modified

replication of the Sholl et al. (1995) study demonstrates that the inhibitory effect in Ll-to-

L2 translation following the presentation of L1 word primes was not a result of transfer.

The combined evidence from the two experiments can not be accounted for by previous

models. This inability results from the fact that they do not consider the development of

relational network organization in a bilingual's two languages as central to the issues of

lexical and conceptual processing. Such models do not possess the theoretical constructs

that account for unprimed responses and predict the conditions of their occurrence.

According to the structural assumption offered in the proposed model of

conceptual structure mapping, lexical items are related to many frames and may activate a








whole network of senses. Inasmuch as bilinguals' conceptual structures exhibit

differences in their lexical-conceptual organizations, there is a possibility of obtaining a

number of responses to a single translation stimulus. As a result, bilinguals may provide

responses different from the primed (or target) lexical forms. Conditions for the

production of unprimed responses can be elaborated on the basis of both the structural

and the developmental assumptions. The structural assumption provides a functional

construct (i.e. a frame) to demonstrate that the development of a relational network

organization is a result of lexical items' use in contrastive socio-pragmatic and functional

contexts. The activation threshold of a particular sense in the relational network of a

lexical item depends on (1) the degree of a speaker's familiarity with the given usage, (2)

the stability of the graded structure of the given lexical category, (3) representational

differences in the relational network, or differences in weights assigned to different

frames in the graded structure of the lexical category in CS1 and CS2. The relation

between the specified factors is implicational. That is, if a speaker is not familiar with a

particular sense, other factors do not apply, and if the graded structure of the acquired

lexical category is highly stable, language-specific differences may not produce a

significant effect. For example, the English word nail may be translated in Russian as

nogot' and gvozd' to denote a horny growth at the end of fingers and toes, and a pointed

piece of metal, respectively. If Russian-English bilinguals were familiar with the former

sense, but not with the later sense, the Russian lexical representation gvozd' ('pointed

piece of metal') would not be activated at all. Since the latter sense is not associated with

highly stable prototype effects in the relational network of the English lexical item nail

(i.e. its activation depends on availability of a relevant contextual frame), its activation








threshold in the Russian conceptual structure can be attenuated by differences in the

relational organization of English and Russian lexical categories.

The proposed implicational relation between developmental and structural factors

may be criticized on the grounds that it may lead to highly individualized descriptions,

whereas the objective of any theoretical analysis is to capture a general trend. However, it

is important to note that early stages of conceptual structure development are inherently

idiosyncratic, because language acquisition episodes reflect personal language acquisition

experiences of an individual. Thus, a CS2 of a novice L2 learner constitute a set of

isolated lexical representations that are mapped onto converging nodes in CS1. Since

only one particular sense in a given relational network is acquired, novice bilinguals may

demonstrate greater variability in their responses to single word stimuli. Growing

experience with L2 provides a learner with a number of contrastive contexts that enable a

novice bilingual to develop relational networks and inter-network connections for the

representation of a word. As CS2 evolves, a bilingual's familiarity with a variety of

senses in any given relational network will increase. Hence, bilingual production will be

less susceptible to individualized developmental factors and more open to prevalent

structural constraints, such as graded structure stability and language-specific differences

in representational organizations of CS 1 and CS2.

One of the major issues addressed by the model proposed here is that the patterns

of bilingual lexical and conceptual processing are not reduced to a simple dichotomy. The

effects of lexical and conceptual factors were examined in the modified replication of the

revised hierarchical model (Sholl et al. 1995) study. Contrary to the predictions that

follow from this model, there was no significant facilitation of responses to the stimuli




Full Text
xml version 1.0 encoding UTF-8
REPORT xmlns http:www.fcla.edudlsmddaitss xmlns:xsi http:www.w3.org2001XMLSchema-instance xsi:schemaLocation http:www.fcla.edudlsmddaitssdaitssReport.xsd
INGEST IEID EBFQF968U_NEXPV0 INGEST_TIME 2013-10-09T22:46:07Z PACKAGE AA00017623_00001
AGREEMENT_INFO ACCOUNT UF PROJECT UFDC
FILES



PAGE 1

$ 02'(/ 2) &21&(378$/ 6758&785( 0$33,1* %\ ',1$ %(/<$<(9$ $ ',66(57$7,21 35(6(17(' 72 7+( *5$'8$7( 6&+22/ 2) 7+( 81,9(56,7< 2) )/25,'$ ,1 3$57,$/ )8/),//0(17 2) 7+( 5(48,5(0(176 )25 7+( '(*5(( 2) '2&725 2) 3+,/2623+< 81,9(56,7< 2) )/25,'$

PAGE 2

&RS\ULJKW E\ 'LQD %HO\D\HYD

PAGE 3

$&.12:/('*0(176 ZRXOG OLNH WKDQN ,UD )LVFKOHU IRU PDQ\ KHOSIXO GLVFXVVLRQV DQG FRQVWUXFWLYH VXJJHVWLRQV 6SHFLDO WKDQNV DUH H[WHQGHG WR :LOOLDP 6XOOLYDQ ZKRVH DFDGHPLF JXLGDQFH DQG IULHQGVKLS ZDV LQVWUXPHQWDO LQ FRPSOHWLRQ RI WKLV UHVHDUFK VWXG\ )XUWKHUPRUH WKDQN 3 &KDODUFD DQG /DXUD &XQQLQJKDP IRU KHOS LQ UXQQLQJ ([SHULPHQW

PAGE 4

7$%/( 2) &217(176 SDJH $&.12:/('*0(176 LL $%675$&7 Y &+$37(56 ,1752'8&7,21 %,/,1*8$/ 0(025< 5(6($5&+ 'HYHORSPHQWDO &KDQJHV LQ %LOLQJXDO 5HSUHVHQWDWLRQ &RQFHSW $FTXLVLWLRQ DQG 5HSUHVHQWDWLRQ /DQJXDJH6SHFLILF 2UJDQL]DWLRQ DQG %LOLQJXDO 5HSUHVHQWDWLRQ 7+( 02'(/ 2) &21&(378$/ 6758&785( 0$33,1* 7KH 6WUXFWXUDO $VVXPSWLRQ 7KH 'HYHORSPHQWDO $VVXPSWLRQ &RQFHSWXDO 6WUXFWXUH 0DSSLQJ (;3(5,0(17 02',),(' 5(3/,&$7,21 2) 7+( 6+2// (7 $/ f 678'< 0HWKRG 5HVXOWV 'LVFXVVLRQ (;3(5,0(17 5(3/,&$7,21 2) 7+( 6+2// (7 $/ f 678'< 0HWKRG 5HVXOWV 'LVFXVVLRQ 5(/$7,21 $66(660(17 $ 7(67 2) 7+( 352326(' 02'(/ 2) &21&(378$/ 6758&785( 0$33,1* ([SHULPHQW ([SHULPHQW ([SHULPHQW *(1(5$/ ',6&866,21 LLL

PAGE 5

,9 ,03/,&$7,216 )25 5(6($5&+ ,1 %,/,1*8$/,60 &21&/86,21 $33(1',; 5()(5(1&(6 %,2*5$3+,&$/ 6.(7&+

PAGE 6

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f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

PAGE 7

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fELOLQJXDOf LV DSSOLHG LQ D YHU\ EURDG VHQVH ,W KDV EHHQ XVHG WR UHIHU WR EDODQFHGIOXHQW ELOLQJXDO VSHDNHUV DV ZHOO DV WR QRYLFH VHFRQG ODQJXDJH OHDUQHUV 7KH WHUP LV DOVR XVHG WR UHIHU WR LQGLYLGXDOV ZKR VSHDN PRUH WKDQ RQH ODQJXDJH

PAGE 8

&+$37(5 %,/,1*8$/ 0(025< 5(6($5&+ %LOLQJXDO UHVHDUFK OLWHUDWXUH RIIHUV D QXPEHU RI GLIIHUHQW DSSURDFKHV WR WKH LVVXHV RI ELOLQJXDO SURGXFWLRQ DQG GHYHORSPHQW 7KH ODUJHVW JURXS RI VWXGLHV RQ ELOLQJXDOLVP IRFXVHV RQ WKH LVVXHV RI VWRUDJH DQG UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ 7KH FHQWUDO DUJXPHQW RI WKH PRGHOV DGGUHVVLQJ VWRUDJH LVVXHV LV ZKHWKHU FRQFHSWXDO LQIRUPDWLRQ LV UHSUHVHQWHG LQ ODQJXDJH VSHFLILF RU DPRGDO ZD\ ,Q SDUWLFXODU WKH VWXGLHV KDYH EHHQ WU\LQJ WR HVWDEOLVK ZKHWKHU D ELOLQJXDOfV WZR OH[LFRQV DUH UHSUHVHQWHG LQ VHSDUDWH PHPRU\ VWRUHV WKH VHSDUDWH FRGH YLHZf RU ZKHWKHU WKH\ DUH UHSUHVHQWHG LQ D VLQJOH PHPRU\ V\VWHP WKH FRPPRQ FRGH YLHZf 7KH H[WHQVLYH H[SHULPHQWDO UHVHDUFK SURGXFHG WKH GDWD ZKLFK ZDV RIWHQ LQWHUSUHWHG DV VXSSRUWLQJ RQH YLHZ RU WKH RWKHU 0F&RUPDFN .LUVQHU 6PLWK /RFNKDUW .LQJ t -DLQ 6FDUERURXJK *HUDUG t &UWHVH 7]HOJRY t (EHQ (]UD :LOOLDPV f 'XUJRQRJOX DQG 5RHGLJHU f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

PAGE 9

DQG WUDQVODWLRQ GUDZ DWWHQWLRQ WR WKH FRQFHSWXDO FRQWHQW RI WKH VWLPXOXV DQG JHQHUDOO\ SURGXFH UHVXOWV WKDW VXSSRUW WKH FRPPRQ FRGH YLHZ +HUHGLD :HOGRQ DQG 0F/DXJKOLQ f SURYLGHG DGGLWLRQDO HYLGHQFH WKDW GDWD GULYHQ WDVNV JHQHUDWH UHVXOWV VXSSRUWLQJ WKH VHSDUDWH FRGH YLHZ ZKHUHDV UHVXOWV REWDLQHG LQ FRQFHSWXDOO\ GULYHQ WDVNV SURYLGH VXSSRUW IRU WKH FRPPRQ FRGH YLHZ RI ELOLQJXDO PHPRU\ 7KHLU ILUVW H[SHULPHQW UHSOLFDWHG WKH ILQGLQJV RI 'XUJRQRJOX DQG 5RHGLJHU f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f SURYLGHG DGGLWLRQDO HYLGHQFH WKDW LW LV SRVVLEOH WR REWDLQ FURVVODQJXDJH IDFLOLWDWLRQ LQ WUDGLWLRQDO GDWDGULYHQ WDVNV 7KH DEVHQFH RI FURVVODQJXDJH IDFLOLWDWLRQ RQ ZRUGIUDJPHQW FRPSOHWLRQ WDVNV UHSRUWHG E\ 'XUJRQRJOX DQG 5RHGLJHU f DQG :DWNLQV DQG 3H\QLUFLRJOX f ZDV GXH WR DEVHQFH RI VHPDQWLF LQYROYHPHQW DW VWXG\ ZKHUH 6SDQLVK DQG (QJOLVK VWLPXOL LQ WKH IRUPHU VWXG\f DQG 7XUNLVK DQG (QJOLVK VWLPXOL LQ WKH ODWWHU VWXG\f ZHUH SUHVHQWHG DV UDQGRP ZRUG OLVWV 6PLWK f XVHG (QJOLVK DQG )UHQFK VHQWHQFHV WKDW FUHDWHG DVVRFLDWLRQV ZLWK WKH VWLPXOL SUHVHQWHG DV IUDJPHQWV GXULQJ D ZRUG IUDJPHQW FRPSOHWLRQ WDVN 7KH VHQWHQFHV GLG QRW XVH RYHUW ZRUG IRUPV WKXV HOLPLQDWLQJ WKH SRVVLELOLW\ RI UHOLDQFH RQ SHUFHSWXDO SURSHUWLHV RI WKH PDWHULDO VWXGLHG 7KH UHVXOWV

PAGE 10

GHPRQVWUDWHG WKDW VHQWHQFH SURFHVVLQJ DW VWXG\ OHDGV WR VHPDQWLF LQYROYHPHQW DW WHVW DQG KHQFH WR FURVV ODQJXDJH IDFLOLWDWLRQ LQ D ZRUGIUDJPHQW FRPSOHWLRQ WDVN $V FRQFOXGHG LQ 7RERVVL f 6PLWK f DQG +XPPHO f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t 'HVURFKHUV f ZDV SXW IRUWK WR DFFRXQW IRU WKH GLVFUHSDQFLHV EHWZHHQ GDWDGULYHQ DQG FRQFHSWXDOO\GULYHQ WDVNV LQ WHUPV RI YDULDELOLW\ RI HQFRGLQJ $PHGW t *HQWLOH 3DLYLR &ODUN t /DPEHUW 9DLG f 7ZR V\VWHPV YHUEDOV\PERO DQG FRQFHSWXDOLPDJHU\f ZHUH SURSRVHG WR EH FRQQHFWHG \HW LQGHSHQGHQW 2Q WKH EDVLV RI WKH ILQGLQJV WKDW SLFWXUHV ZHUH FDWHJRUL]HG IDVWHU WKDQ ERWK /, DQG / ZRUGV LW ZDV FRQFOXGHG WKDW RQH V\VWHP FRXOG EH VRPHWLPHV DFWLYDWHG ZLWKRXW WKH RWKHU 7KDW LV LQ SLFWXUH FDWHJRUL]DWLRQ WDVNV FRQFHSWXDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQV FRXOG EH DFFHVVHG YLD

PAGE 11

YLVXDO VWLPXOL $OWKRXJK WKH YHUEDO V\VWHP FRXOG EH DOVR DFWLYDWHG LWV DFWLYDWLRQ ZDV QRW D QHFHVVDU\ FRQGLWLRQ IRU FRQFHSWXDO DFFHVV 7KH WKHRU\ KRZHYHU KDV EHHQ FULWLFL]HG RQ WKH JURXQGV WKDW LW UHGXFHV FRQFHSWXDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQV WR YLVXDO DQG YHUEDO FRGHV 3RWWHU t .UROO f 7KH KLHUDUFKLFDO PRGHOV SURSRVHG E\ 3DUDGLV f 3RWWHU 6R 9RQ (FNDUGW DQG )HOGPDQ f DQG 6QRGJUDVV f SRVLW VHSDUDWH VWRUHV LQ ZKLFK WKH FRQVFLRXV UHSUHVHQWDWLRQV RI YHUEDO DQG SLFWRULDO VWLPXOL RFFXU &XUUHQW UHVHDUFK LQ WKH DUHD RI ELOLQJXDO PHPRU\ KDV EHHQ FHQWHUHG DURXQG WKH WZR SODXVLEOH PRGHOV SURSRVHG E\ 3RWWHU 6R YDQ (FNDUGW t )HOGPDQ f 7KH PRGHOV GLIIHU LQ WKH FRQQHFWLRQV WKH\ DVVXPH EHWZHHQ WKH FRQFHSWXDO DQG WKH OH[LFDO OHYHOV VHH )LJXUH f 7KH ZRUG :RUG $VVRFLDWLRQ 0RGHO &RQFHSW 0HGLDWLRQ 0RGHO )LJXUH :RUG DVVRFLDWLRQ DQG FRQFHSW PHGLDWLRQ PRGHOV DV SURSRVHG E\ 3RWWHU 6R YDQ (FNDUGW t )HOGPDQ f

PAGE 12

DVVRFLDWLRQ PRGHO SRVWXODWHV WKDW WKH ZRUG PHDQLQJV LQ WKH VHFRQG ODQJXDJH /f DUH DFFHVVHG YLD WKH ELOLQJXDOfV GRPLQDQW ODQJXDJH /,f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n 7KH H[SHULPHQWDO VWXGLHV GHPRQVWUDWHG D GLVVRFLDWLRQ LQ SHUIRUPDQFH RI OHVV DQG PRUH IOXHQW ELOLQJXDOV 3RWWHU 6R YRQ (FNKDUGW t )HOGPDQ .UROO t &XUOH\ &KHQ t /HXQJ f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

PAGE 13

OH[LFDO VWRUH YLD / OH[LFDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQV &RQYHUVHO\ WKH FRQFHSW PHGLDWLRQ PRGHO VXSSRVHGO\ UHIOHFWV WKH DELOLW\ RI H[SHUW ELOLQJXDOV WR DFFHVV FRQFHSWV IURP HLWKHU OH[LFDO VWRUH GLUHFWO\ 6RPH ILQGLQJV KRZHYHU ZHUH QRW FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK WKH SURSRVHG GLFKRWRP\ 6LJQLILFDQW DV\PPHWULHV ZHUH UHSRUWHG HYHQ IRU YHU\ IOXHQW ELOLQJXDOV .HDWO\ 6SLQNV t *HOGHU f ZKHUHDV DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH PRGHOV IOXHQW ELOLQJXDOV VKRXOG H[KLELW OHVV DV\PPHWU\ LQ WKHLU SURGXFWLRQ 'H *URRW DQG 1DV f UHSRUWHG HTXDOLW\ RI DVVRFLDWLYH SULPLQJ HIIHFWV ZLWKLQ DQG EHWZHHQ ODQJXDJHV HYHQ WKRXJK WKH RYHUDOO UHVSRQVH WLPH ODWHQFLHV REWDLQHG IRU / SULPHV ZHUH ODUJHU WKDQ WKH ODWHQFLHV REWDLQHG IRU /, SULPHV 7R DFFRPPRGDWH WKH FRQWUDGLFWRU\ HYLGHQFH LW ZDV VXJJHVWHG WKDW WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ WKH ZRUG DVVRFLDWLRQ DQG FRQFHSW PHGLDWLRQ VWDJHV LQ D ELOLQJXDO VSHDNHUnV GHYHORSPHQW LV RYHUODSSLQJ UDWKHU WKDQ VWULFWO\ GLFKRWRPRXV .UROO f 7KH WZR PRGHOV KDYH EHHQ DPDOJDPDWHG LQ WKH PL[HG PRGHO 3RWWHU .UROO
PAGE 14

FRQFHSWXDO OHYHO ZKHQ WKH GLUHFWLRQ RI PHGLDWLRQ SURFHHGV IURP /L WR / DQG WKDW RQO\ WKH OH[LFDO OHYHO LV HPSOR\HG LQ WKH RSSRVLWH GLUHFWLRQ VHH )LJXUH f )LJXUH 7KH UHYLVHG KLHUDUFKLFDO PRGHO DV RXWOLQHG LQ .UROO f .UROO DQG 6WHZDUW f DQG 'XIRXU DQG .UROO f 7KH WKLFN VROLG OLQHV VWDQG IRU YHU\ VWURQJ FRQQHFWLRQV DQG WKH GDVKHG OLQHV VWDQG IRU ZHDNHU FRQQHFWLRQV .UROO DQG 6WHZDUW f HPSOR\HG WUDQVIHUDSSURSULDWH SURFHVVLQJ ORJLF WR WHVW WKH UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ SURSRVHG LQ WKH UHYLVHG KLHUDUFKLFDO PRGHO $FFRUGLQJ WR WKH SULQFLSOH RI WUDQVIHUDSSURSULDWH SURFHVVLQJ PHPRU\ SHUIRUPDQFH LV D IXQFWLRQ RI WKH RYHUODS EHWZHHQ VWXG\ DQG WHVW RSHUDWLRQV ,Q RWKHU ZRUGV SHUIRUPDQFH RQ WKH WHVW GHSHQGV RQ WKH RYHUODS EHWZHHQ WKH W\SHV RI SURFHVVLQJ UHTXLUHG E\ WKH HQFRGLQJ FRQGLWLRQ DQG WKH WHVW 0RUULV %UDQVIRUG t )UDQNV 5RHGLJHU t %OD[WRQ f 6LQFH PHGLDWLRQV IURP /, WR / DQG IURP / WR /, ZHUH K\SRWKHVL]HG WR HQJDJH GLIIHUHQW DFWLYDWLRQ SDWWHUQV

PAGE 15

WUDQVODWLRQV IURP /, WR / DQG IURP / WR /, ZHUH XVHG WR WHVW WKH K\SRWKHVLV &DWHJRUL]HG DQG UDQGRPL]HG ZRUG OLVWV LQ /, DQG / ZHUH XVHG DV VWLPXOL &DWHJRUL]HG OLVWV ZHUH H[SHFWHG WR GUDZ DWWHQWLRQ WR FRQFHSWXDO SURSHUWLHV RI WKH VWLPXOXV PDWHULDO DQG FRQVHTXHQWO\ FUHDWH LQWHUIHUHQFH LQ WKH WDVNV WKDW UHTXLUH FRQFHSWXDO DFWLYDWLRQ SLFWXUH QDPLQJ DQG WUDQVODWLRQ IURP /, WR /f 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG OH[LFDOOHYHO SURFHVVLQJ ZDV SUHGLFWHG WR KDYH QR HIIHFW RQ WKH WDVNV WKDW GR QRW UHTXLUH DFFHVV WR WKH FRQFHSWXDO OHYHO RI UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ ZRUG QDPLQJ DQG WUDQVODWLRQ IURP / WR /,f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f KDG D FDWHJRU\ LQWHUIHUHQFH HIIHFW LQ SURGXFWLRQ EXW D FDWHJRU\ DGYDQWDJH LQ UHFDOO 7KH GLUHFWLRQ RI WUDQVODWLRQ WKDW ZDV K\SRWKHVL]HG WR EH OH[LFDOO\ PHGLDWHG / !/f ZDV LQVHQVLWLYH WR WKH HIIHFWV RI VHPDQWLF FRQWH[W LQ SURGXFWLRQ DQG DOVR LQ UHFDOO 7KH GLUHFWLRQDO DV\PPHWU\ ZDV DOVR GHPRQVWUDWHG LQ VHPDQWLF SULPLQJ H[SHULPHQWV 3ULPLQJ HIIHFWV UHSRUWHG ZHUH VLJQLILFDQWO\ JUHDWHU ZKHQ SULPHV ZHUH SUHVHQWHG LQ /, DQG WDUJHWV ZHUH SUHVHQWHG LQ / WKDQ ZKHQ SULPHV ZHUH SUHVHQWHG LQ / DQG WDUJHWV ZHUH SUHVHQWHG LQ /, 1HHO\ .HHIH t 5RVV $OWDUULED .UROO t 6KROO f ,W ZDV VXJJHVWHG WKDW VLPLODU WR /OWR/ WUDQVODWLRQ /, SULPLQJ RI /

PAGE 16

WDUJHWV LQLWLDWHV WKH LQWHUODQJXDJH FRQQHFWLRQ LQ WKH GLUHFWLRQ IURP /, WR / DQG WKHUHIRUH VKRXOG UHVXOW LQ JUHDWHU VHPDQWLF DFWLYDWLRQ WKDQ / SULPLQJ RI /, WDUJHWV $GGLWLRQDO HYLGHQFH IRU WKH UHSUHVHQWDWLRQDO RUJDQL]DWLRQ SURSRVHG LQ WKH UHYLVHG KLHUDUFKLFDO PRGHO ZDV SURYLGHG E\ 6KROO 6DQNDUDQDUD\DQDQ DQG .UROO f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f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

PAGE 17

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f 7KH PL[WXUH DVVXPSWLRQ VD\V WKDW FRQFHSWXDO DQG SHUFHSWXDO SURFHVVLQJ VKRXOG EH YLHZHG LQ WHUPV RI WZR GLVWLQFW FRQWLQXD WKDW GR QRW QHFHVVDULO\ WUDGH RII DJDLQVW HDFK RWKHU 5RHGLJHU t 0F'HUPRWW f :KHHOGRQ DQG 0RQVHO f VXJJHVWHG WKDW ORQJODVWLQJ IDFLOLWDWLRQ FRXOG EH D UHVXOWV RI UHSHDWHG H[HUFLVH RI WKH PDSSLQJ IURP PHDQLQJ WR SKRQRORJLFDO IRUP $V GHPRQVWUDWHG LQ WKH H[SHULPHQWV FRQGXFWHG E\ 0RQVHOO 0DWWKHZV DQG 0LOOHU f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

PAGE 18

'HYHORSPHQWDO &KDQJHV LQ %LOLQJXDO 5HSUHVHQWDWLRQ 7KH VWXGLHV WKDW FRPSDUH WKH SHUIRUPDQFH RI OHVV DQG PRUH IOXHQW ELOLQJXDOV LQ SLFWXUH QDPLQJ ZRUG WUDQVODWLRQ DQG OH[LFDO GHFLVLRQ WDVNV UHSRUWHG D GLVVRFLDWLRQ LQ WKH UHVSRQVH SDWWHUQV RI WKH OHVV DQG PRUH IOXHQW ELOLQJXDO VSHDNHUV &KHQ t /HXQJ .UROO t &XUOH\ $OWDUULED f /HVV IOXHQW VSHDNHUV H[KLELWHG VLJQLILFDQW DV\PPHWULHV LQ UHVSRQVH WLPH ODWHQFLHV &RQYHUVHO\ UHVSRQVH WLPH DV\PPHWULHV REWDLQHG IURP PRUH IOXHQW ELOLQJXDOV ZHUH QRW VLJQLILFDQW 6LPLODUO\ PRUH IOXHQW ELOLQJXDOV GHPRQVWUDWHG FRPSDUDEOH SULPLQJ HIIHFWV LQ ERWK GLUHFWLRQV 'H *URRW t 1DV f 'XIRXU DQG .UROO f SURSRVHG WKDW WKHUH LV D GHYHORSPHQWDO VKLIW LQ WKH ZD\ ELOLQJXDOV PHGLDWH EHWZHHQ WKHLU WZR ODQJXDJHV $V ELOLQJXDOV EHFRPH PRUH SURILFLHQW WKH\ GHYHORS PRUH FRQFHSWXDO QRGHV WKDW FDQ EH DFWLYDWHG E\ ERWK /, DQG / OH[LFDO LWHPV LQ ZKLFK FDVH WKH\ JUDGXDOO\ VZLWFK WR FRQFHSWXDO PHGLDWLRQ LQ ERWK GLUHFWLRQV VHH )LJXUH f 7KH GHYHORSPHQWDO SURSRVDO ZDV H[SHFWHG WR GHPRQVWUDWH D GHJUHH RI HPSLULFDO DGHTXDF\ VLQFH LW ZDV GHYHORSHG IURP WUDQVODWLRQ ODWHQF\ GDWD REWDLQHG IURP OHVV DQG PRUH IOXHQW ELOLQJXDOV LQ VHYHUDO SUHYLRXV VWXGLHV 3RWWHU HW DO .UROO DQG &XUOH\ &KHQ DQG /HXQJ f +RZHYHU WKH UHVXOWV UHSRUWHG E\ .UROO DQG &XUOH\ f VKRZ WKDW D VZLWFK WR FRQFHSWXDO PHGLDWLRQ PD\ RFFXU TXLWH HDUO\ ORQJ EHIRUH QRYLFH ELOLQJXDOV DFKLHYH SURGXFWLRQ IOXHQF\ $GGLWLRQDO HYLGHQFH IRU HDUO\ FRQFHSWXDO LQYROYHPHQW LQ QRYLFH ELOLQJXDOV ZDV SURYLGHG E\ *ULIILQ DQG +DUOH\ f 7KH\ H[DPLQHG HIIHFWV RI WKH GLUHFWLRQ RI DVVRFLDWLRQ RQ ZRUG OLVW OHDUQLQJ )RXU JURXSV RI QRYLFH (QJOLVK)UHQFK ELOLQJXDOV ZHUH JLYHQ D OLVW RI ZRUGV ZKLFK WZR JURXSV VWXGLHG LQ WKH /OWR/ GLUHFWLRQ DQG DQRWKHU WZR

PAGE 19

JURXSV VWXGLHG LQ WKH /WR/ GLUHFWLRQ 7KH JURXSV SHUIRUPDQFH ZDV ODWHU WHVWHG LQ WUDQVODWLRQ WDVNV IURP /, WR / D SURGXFWLRQ WDVNf DQG IURP / WR /, D FRPSUHKHQVLRQ WDVNf &RQGLWLRQV DW HQFRGLQJ DQG WHVW ZHUH SDUWLDOO\ FRXQWHUEDODQFHG ,W ZDV IRXQG WKDW PDWFKLQJ HQFRGLQJ DQG UHWULHYDO FRQGLWLRQV DQG XVLQJ /, DV D WDUJHW ODQJXDJH FRPSUHKHQVLRQf ZHUH SDUWLFXODUO\ IDYRUDEOH IRU D EHWWHU SHUIRUPDQFH DW WHVW ZKHUHDV GLUHFWLRQ RI OHDUQLQJ LH GLUHFWLRQ RI DVVRFLDWLRQf KDG QR VLJQLILFDQW HIIHFW RQ JURXS SHUIRUPDQFH $ FRPSDULVRQ EHWZHHQ WKH WZR GLUHFWLRQV RI OHDUQLQJ RYHU WKH FRPSUHKHQVLRQ DQG SURGXFWLRQ WDVNV VKRZHG WKDW ZRUG DVVRFLDWLRQ OHDUQLQJ IURP /, WR / ZDV OHVV GLVDGYDQWDJHG E\ WKH GHPDQGV PDGH RQ LW XQGHU WKH UHYHUVH FRQGLWLRQ LH WUDQVODWLRQ IURP / WR /,f WKDQ ZDV WKH /WR/O OHDUQLQJ FRQGLWLRQ ,Q RWKHU ZRUGV LW ZDV GHPRQVWUDWHG WKDW LQ ZRUGDVVRFLDWLRQ OHDUQLQJ D PRUH VWDEOH SHUIRUPDQFH DW WHVW UHVXOWHG ZKHQ OHDUQLQJ SURFHHGHG LQ WKH GLUHFWLRQ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK FRQFHSWXDO SURFHVVLQJ $FFRUGLQJ WR WKH UHYLVHG KLHUDUFKLFDO PRGHO ZRUG DVVRFLDWLRQ LQ WKH GLUHFWLRQ IURP / WR /, LV DFKLHYHG DW WKH OH[LFDO OHYHO RI SURFHVVLQJ DQG VKRXOG SURYLGH D VWURQJHU LQWHUODQJXDJH FRQQHFWLRQ IRU QRYLFH ELOLQJXDOV WKDQ WKH GLUHFWLRQ IURP /, WR / ZKLFK LV FRQVLGHUHG WR EH HVWDEOLVKHG DW WKH FRQFHSWXDO OHYHO RI SURFHVVLQJ )XUWKHUPRUH LW ZDV VXJJHVWHG WKDW /WR/O OH[LFDO FRQQHFWLRQV DUH VWURQJHU WKDQ WKRVH IURP /, WR / EHFDXVH fVHFRQG ODQJXDJH ZRUGV DUH IUHTXHQWO\ WDXJKW E\ DVVRFLDWLQJ WKHP WR ILUVW ODQJXDJH HJ FDVD PHDQV fKRXVHff EXW QRW YLFH YHUVDf .UROO S f 7KH ILQGLQJV RI *ULIILQ DQG +DUOH\ f ZHUH QRW FRPSDWLEOH ZLWK WKH DERYH DVVXPSWLRQV ,W ZDV GHPRQVWUDWHG WKDW GLUHFWLRQ RI DVVRFLDWLRQ ZDV QRW D FUXFLDO IDFWRU DIIHFWLQJ ELOLQJXDO SHUIRUPDQFH DW WHVW DV FRPSDUHG WR PDWFKLQJ RI HQFRGLQJ DQG UHWULHYDO FRQGLWLRQV $GGLWLRQDOO\ LW ZDV VKRZQ WKDW VXFFHVVIXO UHWULHYDO RI D OH[LFDO IRUP ODUJHO\ GHSHQGV RQ

PAGE 20

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f 6RFLDOSUDJPDWLF FRQWH[WV DUH FORVHO\ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK DFWLYLWLHV DQG URXWLQHV VXFK DV VFKHPDV DQG VFULSWV ZKLFK SURYLGH D IUDPHZRUN IRU HPHUJLQJ IXQFWLRQDO DQG WKHPDWLF FDWHJRULHV $V UHSRUWHG LQ REMHFWVRUWLQJ VWXGLHV )LYXVK f DQG PRQWKROG LQIDQWV WHQG WR VHOHFW REMHFWV VHTXHQWLDOO\ LQ WKH VDPH VFULSW FDWHJRU\ NLWFKHQZDUH YV EDWKURRP DFFHVVRULHVf IURP WKH WRWDO VHW RI REMHFWV DYDLODEOH WR WKHP DW D JUHDWHU WKDQ FKDQFH OHYHO SUREDELOLW\ $OWKRXJK WKH VFULSWEDVHG FDWHJRULHV DUH DVVXPHG WR EH IXQFWLRQDO PDQ\ RI WKH FDWHJRULHV GHYHORS LQWR WUDGLWLRQDO WD[RQRPLF FDWHJRULHV HJ IXUQLWXUH FORWKLQJf )LQGLQJV IURP VHPDQWLF SULPLQJ VWXGLHV VKRZHG WKDW FDWHJRULFDO RUJDQL]DWLRQ FRQVWLWXWHV DQ LPSRUWDQW IDFWRU LQ OH[LFDO DQG

PAGE 21

FRQFHSWXDO DFFHVV &ROOLQV t 4XLOOLDQ 0H\HU t 6FKYDQYHOGW &ROOLQV t /RIWXV f /DQJXDJH6SHFLILF 2UJDQL]DWLRQ DQG %LOLQJXDO 5HSUHVHQWDWLRQ 9DULDWLRQV LQ VRFLRFXOWXUDO URXWLQHV DIIHFW WKH UHODWLYH VWUXFWXUH RI WKH NQRZOHGJH EDVHG FRQVWUXFWV WKDW GHWHUPLQH OH[LFDOFRQFHSWXDO DFWLYDWLRQ SDWWHUQV 0DSSLQJV RI OH[LFDOFRQFHSWXDO UHODWLRQV RQWR NQRZOHGJHEDVHG FRQVWUXFWV DUH OH[LFDOL]HG LQ WKH ZD\V WKDW PD\ QRW EH VKDUHG DFURVV ODQJXDJHV 7KH IROORZLQJ RIWHQFLWHG H[DPSOH IURP 7DOP\ f GHPRQVWUDWHV GLIIHUHQW OH[LFDOL]DWLRQ SDWWHUQV RI FRQFHSWXDO SULPLWLYHV VXFK DV 027,21 3$7+ ),*85( *5281' DQG 0$11(5 LQ (QJOLVK f DQG 6SDQLVK f f 7KH ERWWOH IORDWHG LQWR WKH FDYH f /D ERWHOOD HQWUR IORWDQGR HQ D OD FXHYD (QJOLVK ZDV VDLG WR FRQIODWH 027,21 DQG 0$11(5 LQWR D VLQJOH OHPPD fIORDWf ZKHUHDV LQ 6SDQLVK VSHDNHUV XVH VHSDUDWH OHPPDV WR FRQYH\ WKHVH FRQFHSWXDO SULPLWLYHV +RZHYHU LQ 6SDQLVK WKH OHPPD fHQWURf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

PAGE 22

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

PAGE 23

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fV VWUDWLILFDQWLRQDO WKHRU\ DQG /DQJDFNHUfV &RJQLWLYH *UDPPDUA EXW WKH PRGHO XVH KHUHLQ LV QRW IXOO\ VSHFLILHG 2QH FRPSRQHQW RI WKH VWUXFWXUDO DVVXPSWLRQ HQFRPSDVVHV WKH VDPH VWUXFWXUDO SULQFLSOHV DV WKH RQHV GHYHORSHG LQ /DQJDFNHUfV UHODWLRQDOQHWZRUN 51f PRGHO 7KH 51 PRGHO ZDV SURSRVHG WR FDSWXUH WKH UHODWLRQVKLSV WKDW KROG EHWZHHQ YDULRXV VHQVHV RI /DPE $ PRUH FRPSUHKHQVLYH UHYLHZ RI &RJQLWLYH *UDPPDU FDQ EH IRXQG LQ /DQJDFNHU DQG 5XG]ND2VW\Q /DQJDFNHUfV PRGHO LV QHLWKHU WKH ILUVW QRU WKH PRVW KLJKO\ HODERUDWHG RQH DYDLODEOH EXW LW VXIILFHV DV D VWDUWLQJ SRLQW IRU WKH SUHOLPLQDU\ VWXGLHV KHUHLQ

PAGE 24

OH[LFDO LWHPV DQG WR SURYLGH D WKHRUHWLFDO FRQVWUXFW IRU WKH SURWRW\SH PRGHO RI FDWHJRUL]DWLRQ 7KH 51 PRGHO PDLQWDLQV WKDW WKH VHQVHV RI OH[LFDO LWHPV UHODWLRQDO FRQQHFWLRQVf LQ D QHWZRUN DUH GHWHUPLQHG E\ WZR W\SHV RI UHODWLRQVKLSV VFKHPDWLFLW\ DQG H[WHQVLRQ 6FKHPDWLFLW\ UHSUHVHQWV WKH GHJUHH WR ZKLFK D SDUWLFXODU VHQVH FDQ EH GHILQHG D ILQHUJUDLQHG LQVWDQWLDWLRQ RU VSHFLDOL]DWLRQ DQG D PRUH DSSUR[LPDWH UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ RU DEVWUDFWLRQ $Q H[WHQVLRQ LV D UHODWLRQVKLS LQ ZKLFK VRPH EDVLF VSHFLILFDWLRQV DUH VXVSHQGHG RU LJQRUHG WR IRUP D QHZ PHDQLQJ ,Q WKH H[DPSOH SURYLGHG E\ /DQJDFNHU f D UHODWLRQDO QHWZRUN RI WKH OH[LFDO LWHP ULQJ ZDV PRGHOHG WR GHPRQVWUDWH UHODWLRQVKLSV RI VFKHPDWLFLW\ DQG H[WHQVLRQ 7KXV WKH PHDQLQJ fD FLUFXODU SLHFH RI MHZHOU\f FDQ EH VDLG WR UHSUHVHQW D VSHFLDOL]DWLRQ RI D PRUH DEVWUDFW VHQVH fD FLUFXODU REMHFWf 7KH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ WKH PHDQLQJ fDUHQDf DQG WKH DEVWUDFWLRQ fD FLUFXODU REMHFWf UHSUHVHQWV DQ H[WHQVLRQ LQ ZKLFK VWULFW JHRPHWULF VSHFLILFDWLRQV DUH VXVSHQGHG DQG RQO\ IXQFWLRQDO VSHFLILFDWLRQV UHPDLQ UHOHYDQW VHH )LJXUH f /DQJDFNHUf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f

PAGE 25

)LJXUH $ UHODWLRQDO QHWZRUN RI WKH (QJOLVK OH[LFDO LWHP ULQJ SURSRVHG E\ /DQJDFNHU f 3URWRW\SLFDO PHDQLQJ LV JLYHQ LQ EROG 'DVKHG OLQHV SRLQW WR VHQVH WKDW DUH H[WHQVLRQV RI WKH FRUUHVSRQGLQJ DEVWUDFWLRQV DQG VSHFLDOL]DWLRQV QHWZRUNV ZDV QRW FRQVLGHUHG &RQVHTXHQWO\ WKH QHWZRUNV ZHUH JLYHQ D ULJLG VWUXFWXUDO RUJDQL]DWLRQ ZKLFK FDQ QRW DFFRXQW IRU WKH LQVWDELOLW\ LQ DFWLYDWLRQ SDWWHUQV REVHUYHG LQ GLIIHUHQW FRQWH[WV 9DULRXV SKHQRPHQD DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK LQVWDELOLW\ LQ JUDGHG FDWHJRULHV KDYH EHHQ ODUJHO\ H[SORUHG LQ WKH ZRUNV RI %DUVDORX f %DUVDORX PDLQWDLQV WKDW DOO FDWHJRULHV IRUPDO OLQJXLVWLF DQG JRDO GHULYHG SRVVHVV D JUDGHG VWUXFWXUH *UDGHG VWUXFWXUH UHIOHFWV D GHJUHH RI DFWLYDWLRQ GXULQJ DFFHVV *UDGHG VWUXFWXUH FDQ YDU\ VXEVWDQWLDOO\ ZLWK FKDQJHV LQ OLQJXLVWLF FRQWH[W DQG LQ SRLQW RI YLHZ WKDW LV SDUWLFXODU FRQFHSWV PD\ EHFRPH PRUH RU OHVV DFFHVVLEOH LQ YDULRXV FRQWH[WV 8QOLNH WKH UHODWLRQDO QHWZRUN PRGHO WKH IUDPHEDVHG RUJDQL]DWLRQ SURSRVHG E\ %DUVDORX f HPSOR\V DQ H[WHQVLYH NQRZOHGJH EDVH WR DFFRXQW IRU HIIHFWV DULVLQJ IURP

PAGE 26

WKH LQVWDELOLW\ RI JUDGHG VWUXFWXUHV %DUVDORX DUJXHV WKDW LW LV LPSODXVLEOH WR PDLQWDLQ WKDW WKH ZLGH UDQJH RI JUDGHG VWUXFWXUHV REVHUYHG DUH DOO VWRUHG LQ ORQJWHUP PHPRU\ +H DOVR SURSRVHG WKDW SHRSOH FDQ FRQVWUXFW D ZLGH UDQJH RI FRQFHSWV DQG UHODWLRQV IRU WKH VDPH FDWHJRU\ LQ ZRUNLQJ PHPRU\ )LJXUH SURYLGHV DQ H[DPSOH RI WKH IUDPH IRU WKH FRQFHSW fYDFDWLRQf 7KH IUDPH SURYLGHV D ZLGH NQRZOHGJH EDVH WKDW FRQWULEXWHV WR FRQFHSW IRUPDWLRQ 'HSHQGLQJ RQ WKH FRQWH[W SHUVRQDO JRDOV RU SRLQW RI YLHZ SHRSOH LQFRUSRUDWH GLIIHUHQW LQIRUPDWLRQ IURP ORQJWHUP PHPRU\ LQWR WKH FXUUHQW FRQFHSW WKDW WKH\ FRQVWUXFW IRU WKLV FDWHJRU\ )LJXUH ([DPSOH RI D IUDPH IRU fYDFDWLRQf SURSRVHG E\ %DUVDORX f %DUVDORXnV DSSURDFK WR FDWHJRUL]DWLRQ KDV EHHQ FULWLFL]HG IRU LWV UDWKHU XQFRQVWUDLQHG QDWXUH 0F&DXOH\ f ,QGHHG LW LV XQOLNHO\ WKDW VXFK KLJKO\ VWUXFWXUHG

PAGE 27

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fFLUFXODU HQWLW\f LV VFKHPDWLFDOO\ UHSUHVHQWHG EHWZHHQ WLHUV VR DV WR SURYLGH D FRQQHFWLRQ EHWZHHQ YDULRXV IUDPHV RI UHIHUHQFH 7KH FRPPRQ DEVWUDFW UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ FRQVWLWXWHV D FRQFHSWXDOL]DWLRQ RI D UHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ DQ HQWLW\FRQFHSW DQG WKH HQYLURQPHQW RI LWV

PAGE 28

)LJXUH $ VFKHPDWLF UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ RI D SDUW RI WKH (QJOLVK FRQFHSWXDO VWUXFWXUH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH OH[LFDO IRUP ULQJ DSSOLFDWLRQ 7KLV UHODWLRQ LV QRW D SHUFHLYHULQGHSHQGHQW SURSHUW\ RI DQ HQWLW\ WDNHQ DORQH EXW UDWKHU D FRQFHSWXDOL]DWLRQ ZKLFK KDV KXPDQ LQIRUPDWLRQ SURFHVVLQJ FRQVHTXHQFHV 7KDW LV LW LV SV\FKRORJLFDOO\ GHILQHG 6LPLODU LGHDV DERXW WKH FRQFHSWXDOL]DWLRQ PHFKDQLVP ZHUH SUHVHQWHG LQ WHUPV RI DIIRUGDQFHV E\ *LEVRQ f DQG IXUWKHU

PAGE 29

GHYHORSHG LQ WKH DSSURDFK RI SV\FKRORJLFDO HVVHQWLDOLVP DV GLVFXVVHG E\ 0HGLQ f 7KHVH DSSURDFKHV WR FRQFHSWXDOL]DWLRQ KRZHYHU GR QRW KDYH FOHDUO\ GHILQHG WKHRUHWLFDO FRQVWUXFWV ZKLFK FDQ FDSWXUH FRQFHSWXDOL]DWLRQ PHFKDQLVPV SHUWLQHQW WR OH[LFDO SURFHVVLQJ /DQJDFNHUfV f WKHRU\ RI &RJQLWLYH *UDPPDU RIIHUV FDWHJRUL]LQJ UHODWLRQVKLSV RI VFKHPDWLFLW\ DQG H[WHQVLRQ WKDW FDQ JLYHV ULVH WR D QXPEHU RI PHDQLQJV ZKHQ DSSOLHG WR GLIIHUHQW FRQWH[WXDO IUDPHV $V GHSLFWHG LQ )LJXUH WKH DEVWUDFW FRPPRQ UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ fFLUFXODU HQWLW\f FDQ EH FRQFHSWXDOL]HG DV D SLHFH RI MHZHOU\ ZRUQ DURXQG D ILQJHU RU DV D FLUFXODU PDUN GHSHQGLQJ RQ WKH GHJUHH RI VFKHPDWLFLW\ UHTXLUHG ZLWKLQ D JLYHQ IUDPH RI UHIHUHQFH &RQWH[WV WKDW UHTXLUH WKH VXVSHQVLRQ RI FHUWDLQ EDVLF VSHFLILFDWLRQV FRQVWLWXWH WKH EDVLV IRU H[WHQVLRQV )RU H[DPSOH WKH IUDPH RI UHIHUHQFH IRU WKH PHDQLQJ fDUHQDf HPSKDVL]HV SDUWLFXODU IXQFWLRQDO SURSHUWLHV DQG VXVSHQGV OLPLWLQJ JHRPHWULF VSHFLILFDWLRQV 7KH EDVLV IRU PHWDSKRULFDO H[WHQVLRQV LV WKH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI DEVWUDWLRQV WR FRQWH[WXDO IUDPHV GLIIHUHQW IURP WKRVH WKH\ ZHUH FRQYHQWLRQDOL]HG LQ /DQJDFNHU /DNRII f 7KH PRVW FRPPRQ H[DPSOH RI D PHWDSKRULFDO H[WHQVLRQ LV WKH UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ RI WHPSRUDO UHODWLRQV LQ VSDWLDO WHUPV )RU H[DPSOH fEHKLQGf KDV D PHDQLQJ fLQ WKH SDVWf ZKHQ XVHG PHWDSKRULFDOO\ :KLOH GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ IUDPHV RI UHIHUHQFH KDYH EHHQ FRQVLGHUHG WR EH WKH PDMRU VRXUFH RI SRO\VHP\ )LOOPRUH t $WNLQV f 7KH VWUXFWXUDO DVVXPSWLRQ SURYLGHV D OH[LFDOFRQFHSWXDO EDVLV IRU WKH PHFKDQLVPV ZKLFK JRYHUQ OH[LFDO SURFHVVLQJ 7KXV DFWLYDWLRQ SDWWHUQV EHWZHHQ WLHUV DUH GHWHUPLQHG E\ f VLPLODULW\ RI RWKHU VHQVHV WR DQ DEVWUDFWLRQ DQG f VLPLODULW\ EHWZHHQ IUDPHV RI UHIHUHQFH 6LPLODULW\ UHODWLRQV EHWZHHQ VHQVHV FDQ EH HVWDEOLVKHG DW WKH EDVLF OHYHO ZKHUH

PAGE 30

MXGJPHQWV SULPDULO\ LQYROYH SHUFHSWLRQ DQG LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI RXU LPPHGLDWH HQYLURQPHQWV 0DQ\ UHODWLRQV EHWZHHQ FRQFHSWV DUH VR FORVHO\ WLHG WR ORRNV DQG DIIRUGDQFHV WKDW WKH\ VHHP DW ILUVW WR EH SHUFHSWXDOO\ JLYHQ .HLO 0HUYLV 0DUNPDQ f ,Q RWKHU ZRUGV SHRSOH DGRSW DQ HVVHQWLDOLVW KHXULVWLFV WKDW LV WKH K\SRWKHVLV WKDW WKLQJV WKDW ORRN DOLNH WHQG WR VKDUH GHHSHU SURSHUWLHV 0HGLQ t :DWWHQPDNHU f 6LPLODULW\ EHWZHHQ IUDPHV RI UHIHUHQFH FDQ EH HVWDEOLVKHG RQ WKH EDVLV RI FRPPRQ IXQFWLRQDO SURSHUWLHV WKDW FDQ EH UHDOL]HG ZLWKLQ DSSURSULDWH FRQWH[WV ,Q )LJXUH VXFK VLPLODULW\ LV FDSWXUHG E\ JUHDWHU QXPEHU RI FRQQHFWLQJ OLQHV EHWZHHQ WLHUV 6LPLODULW\ EHWZHHQ DEVWUDFWLRQV DQG VSHFLDOL]DWLRQV IDFLOLWDWHV DFWLYDWLRQ VSUHDGLQJ EHWZHHQ WKH VHQVHV UHSUHVHQWHG LQ EROG OLQHV LQ )LJXUH f ZKHUHDV GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ FRQWH[WXDO IUDPHV LQKLELW VXFK DFWLYDWLRQ 7KH JUHDWHU WKH IXQFWLRQDO GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ IUDPHV WKH ORQJHU LW WDNHV WR HVWDEOLVK D UHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH VHQVHV RI D JLYHQ LWHP LQ WKH QHWZRUN )RU H[DPSOH WKH DEVWUDFWLRQ RI D FLUFXODU HQWLW\ HVWDEOLVKHV D FRQQHFWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH VSHFLDOL]DWLRQV fSLHFH RI MHZHOU\ ZRUQ DURXQG ILQJHUf fDQ\ FLUFXODU SLHFH RI MHZHOU\f fFLUFXODU PDUNf DQG fDUHQDf 6LPLODULW\ EHWZHHQ WKH GRPDLQV RI DSSOLFDWLRQ RI WKH ILUVW WZR VHQVHV SHUPLW DQ LPPHGLDWH DFWLYDWLRQ RI WKHVH WZR QRGHV LQ WKH QHWZRUN 7KH FRQWH[WXDO IUDPHV ZKLFK DUH XVHG WR GHQRWH D SLHFH RI MHZHOU\ DQG D FLUFXODU PDUN DUH OHVV VLPLODU KRZHYHU WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ WKH WZR PD\ EH HVWDEOLVKHG RQ WKH EDVLV RI SHUFHSWXDO VDOLHQFH WKDW LV UHIOHFWHG LQ WKHLU FORVHU FRQQHFWLRQ WR WKH FRPPRQ DEVWUDFWLRQ fFLUFXODU HQWLW\f 7KHUHIRUH LW VKRXOG WDNH D VRPHZKDW ORQJHU WLPH WR DFWLYDWH WKH PHDQLQJ fFLUFXODU PDUNf IROORZLQJ DFWLYDWLRQ RI WKH PHDQLQJ fD SLHFH RI MHZHOU\f ,W UHTXLUHV DQ HYHQ ORQJHU WLPH WR DFFHVV WKH PHDQLQJ fDUHQDf EHFDXVH WKH FRQWH[WXDO IUDPH ZKLFK

PAGE 31

FRQVWLWXWHV WKH GRPDLQ IRU WKLV PHDQLQJ EHDUV QR UHVHPEODQFH WR WKH RWKHU IUDPHV RI UHIHUHQFH 7KH SURSRVHG UHSUHVHQWDWLRQDO RUJDQL]DWLRQ FDQ DFFRPPRGDWH HIIHFWV UHVXOWLQJ IURP LQVWDELOLW\ ZLWKLQ WKH JUDGHG VWUXFWXUH RI D OH[LFDO FDWHJRU\ LQIOXHQFHG E\ OLQJXLVWLF FRQWH[WV VRFLRSUDJPDWLF VLWXDWLRQV DQG FXUUHQW JRDOV 7KHVH DQG RWKHU OLQJXLVWLF VRFLRn SUDJPDWLF DQG HQYLURQPHQWDO IDFWRUV KDYH EHHQ GHPRQVWUDWHG WR EH PDMRU VRXUFHV RI LQVWDELOLW\ DIIHFWLQJ FDWHJRU\ VWUXFWXUH DQG SURWRW\SH HIIHFWV %DUVDORX /DNRII f 7KXV UHWULHYDO SDWWHUQV RI QRQSURWRW\SLFDO VHQVHV ZKLFK DUH JHQHUDOO\ FKDUDFWHUL]HG E\ ORQJHU UHVSRQVH ODWHQFLHV DQG ORZHU IUHTXHQF\ RI UHFDOO PD\ EH JUHDWO\ DIIHFWHG E\ WKH DFWLYDWLRQ RI UHOHYDQW FRQWH[WXDO IUDPHV )RU LQVWDQFH WKH DFWLYDWLRQ RI VXFK FRQFHSWV DV fER[LQJf DQG fWUHH WUXQNf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

PAGE 32

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f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fV WZR ODQJXDJHV 'HSHQGLQJ RQ WKH H[WHQW RI WKH SULPDU\ FRQFHSWXDO GHYHORSPHQW RI DQ LQGLYLGXDO VSHDNHU FRQFHSWXDO VWUXFWXUHV PD\ GHYHORS VLPXOWDQHRXVO\ RU VHTXHQWLDOO\ 7KXV ELOLQJXDO FKLOGUHQ GHYHORS WZR FRQFHSWXDO VWUXFWXUHV VLPXOWDQHRXVO\ E\ DVVRFLDWLQJ WKHP ZLWK SDUWLFXODU OH[LFDOL]DWLRQ SDWWHUQV SURYLGHG E\ VHSDUDWH FRQFHSWDFTXLVLWLRQ HSLVRGHV

PAGE 33

6LPXOWDQHRXV IRUPDWLRQ GRHV QRW FRQGLWLRQ SDUDOOHO GHYHORSPHQW RI /, DQG / FRQFHSWXDO VWUXFWXUHV KHQFHIRUWK &6 DQG &6f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
PAGE 34

&RQFHSWXDO 6WUXFWXUH 0DSSLQJ 6LPLODULW\ LQ WKH VRFLRSUDJPDWLF FRQWH[W RI FRQFHSW IRUPDWLRQ DQG D FRPPRQ SRRO RI OLQJXLVWLF PHDQV HQVXUHV D VLPLODULW\ EHWZHHQ QRW DEVROXWH LGHQWLW\ RIf FRQFHSWXDO VWUXFWXUHV IRUPHG LQ WKH VDPH VSHHFK FRPPXQLW\ &RQFHSWXDO VWUXFWXUHV GHYHORSHG LQ GLIIHUHQW VSHHFK FRPPXQLWLHV PD\ GLIIHU f LQ WKH GHJUHH RI VFKHPDWL]DWLRQ SHUPLWWHG EHWZHHQ VHQVHV LQ D QHWZRUN f LQ WKH VHWV RI FRQWH[WXDO IUDPHV WKDW SURYLGH EDVHV IRU WKH QHWZRUN VHQVHV RU f LQ SURILOLQJ SDWWHUQVA 7KH ILUVW FRQGLWLRQ FDQ EH LOOXVWUDWHG E\ WKH IROORZLQJ H[DPSOH 7KH FRQFHSWV fODGGHUf DQG fVWDLUFDVHf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fSOXJ VWRSSHU FRUNf ZKHUHDV LQ 5XVVLDQ LW LV D VLQJOH LQGLYLVLEOH &RJQLWLYH *UDPPDU SRVLWV KLHUDUFKLHV RI GRPDLQV WR SURYLGH WKH EDVLV IRU YDULRXV FRQFHSWV 7KH SDUWV RI WKH GRPDLQV WKDW D OLQJXLVWLF XQLW LQYRNHV DUH FDOOHG WKH EDVH 7KH QRWLRQ RI D SURILOH LV XVHG WR LQGLFDWH WKDW VRPH IDFHW RI WKH EDVH LV UDLVHG WR D SURPLQHQW OHYHO /DQJDFNHU SS f

PAGE 35

FRQFHSWXDOL]DWLRQ RI D GHYLFH WKDW NHHSV OLTXLG LQ D FRQWDLQHU 7KH UHODWLRQDO QHWZRUN RI WKH 5XVVLDQ ZRUG SUREND LV FKDUDFWHUL]HG E\ D FRQVLGHUDEO\ ODUJHU VHW RI DSSOLFDEOH FRQWH[WXDO IUDPHV )RU LQVWDQFH WKH FRPPRQ DEVWUDFWLRQ RI WKH QHWZRUN VHQVHV FDQ EH H[WHQGHG WR GHQRWH D WUDIILF MDP $OWKRXJK (QJOLVK ERUURZV WHUPV IURP WKH VDPH VHPDQWLF ILHOG WR GHQRWH FRQJHVWHG GULYLQJ FRQGLWLRQV HJ ERWWOHQHFNf WKH HYHQW LV FRQFHSWXDOL]HG GLIIHUHQWO\ LQ WKH WZR ODQJXDJHV :KLOH LQ (QJOLVK LW LV FRQFHSWXDOL]HG DV D FRQGLWLRQ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK D WRR QDUURZ SDVVDJH LQ 5XVVLDQ LW LV FRQFHSWXDOL]HG D UHVXOW RI VRPH REVWUXFWLRQ LQ D SDVVDJH RI ZKDWHYHU VL]H /LQJXLVWLF SUHGLFDWLRQV LQ /, DQG / PD\ GLIIHU LQ SURILOLQJ SDWWHUQV WKDW DUH LPSRVHG RQ D EDVH )RU H[DPSOH WKH 5XVVLDQ ZRUG UXND GHQRWHV D FRQFHSW WKDW FRQIODWHV WKH FRQFHSWV DFWLYDWHG E\ WKH (QJOLVK ZRUGV fKDQGf DQG fDUPf 7KH FRQWUDVWLQJ SURILOLQJ SDWWHUQV RI WKH (QJOLVK ZRUGV DUH HYLGHQW IURP WKH LQDSSURSULDWH SLFWXUHV HYRNHG E\ VHQWHQFHV f DQG f +RZHYHU WKH SURILOLQJ SDWWHUQ RI WKH 5XVVLDQ ZRUG UXND UHQGHUV WKH 5XVVLDQ HTXLYDOHQWV RI DOO IRXU VHQWHQFHV DSSURSULDWH f 6KH KDV D FKLOG LQ KHU DUPV f 6KH KDV D FKLOG LQ KHU KDQGV f 6KH KDV D SHQ LQ KHU KDQG f 6KH KDV D SHQ LQ KHU DUP 1RWH KRZHYHU WKDW WKHUH DUH RQO\ WZR 5XVVLDQ VHQWHQFHV LQYROYHG 8 QHH UHEHQRN Y UXND[ WUDQVODWHV ERWK f DQG f DQG 8QHH UXFND Y UXNH WUDQVODWHV ERWK f DQGf ,Q VKRUW VRPH WUDQVIHUW\SH HUURUV PD\ UHVXOW IURP WKH ELOLQJXDOfV IDLOXUH WR UHFRJQL]H FRQWUDVWV LQ RQHWRPDQ\ SURILOLQJ SDWWHUQV RI /, DQG /

PAGE 36

$V VKRZQ WKH FRQFHSWXDO VWUXFWXUHV RI WZR GLIIHUHQW ODQJXDJHV PD\ KDYH QHWZRUNV ZKLFK DUH KLJKO\ FRPSDWLEOH OHVV FRPSDWLEOH RU HYHQ LQFRPSDWLEOH &RPSDWLEOH DUHDV DUH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK SHUFHSWXDOO\ VDOLHQW GRPDLQV RI KXPDQ FRJQLWLRQ 7KXV WKH QHWZRUN UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ RI FRQFUHWH QRXQV KDV EHHQ GHPRQVWUDWHG WR EH KLJKO\ FRPSDWLEOH LQ PDQ\ ODQJXDJHV 7KH UHVXOWV REWDLQHG LQ VHPDQWLF SULPLQJ -LQ t )LVFKOHU GH *URRWt 1DV f GHPRQVWUDWHV WKDW D JUHDWHU FURVVOLQJXLVWLF SULPLQJ HIIHFW LV FKDUDFWHULVWLF RI FRQFUHWH ZRUGV ZKHUHDV JUHDWHU ODQJXDJHVSHFLILF YDULDWLRQV DUH FKDUDFWHULVWLF RI DEVWUDFW ZRUGV ,QFRQJUXLWLHV UHVXOWLQJ IURP PDSSLQJ LQFRPSDWLEOH DUHDV LQ WZR FRQFHSWXDO VWUXFWXUHV DFFRXQW IRU SHUIRUPDQFH GHILFLWV LQ ELOLQJXDO SURGXFWLRQ HJ ORQJHU UHVSRQVH WLPHV DQG OH[LFDO WUDQVIHU 7KH SURSRVHG PRGHO FRQWHQGV WKDW FRQFHSWXDO VWUXFWXUH PDSSLQJ SURYLGHV D IXQFWLRQDO DFFRXQW RI WKH OH[LFDOFRQFHSWXDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ RI WKH ELOLQJXDO PHPRU\ 7KH PRGHO GRHV QRW SRVLW D VWULFW GLFKRWRP\ RI OH[LFDO DQG FRQFHSWXDO OHYHO SURFHVVLQJ ,QVWHDG LW XVHV WKH QRWLRQ RI D VWUXFWXUHG UHODWLRQDO QHWZRUN WR FDSWXUH WKH LQWULFDWH UHODWLRQV EHWZHHQ OH[LFDO DQG FRQFHSWXDO LQIRUPDWLRQ 7KH PDSSLQJ PHWDSKRU UHSUHVHQWV D OLQN EHWZHHQ WKH WZR FRQFHSWXDO VWUXFWXUHV RI D ELOLQJXDO DQG KHOSV WR H[SODLQ WKH DFWLYDWLRQ SDWWHUQV REVHUYHG LQ ELOLQJXDO SURGXFWLRQ

PAGE 37

&+$37(5 (;3(5,0(17 02',),(' 5(3/,&$7,21 2) 7+( 6+2// (7 $/ f 678'< 7KH UHYLVHG KLHUDUFKLFDO PRGHO RI ELOLQJXDO PHPRU\ SURSRVHG E\ .UROO DQG 6WHZDUW f PDLQWDLQV WKDW WKH ODQJXDJHVSHFLILF OH[LFDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQV RI D ELOLQJXDO DUH OLQNHG DW ERWK OH[LFDO DQG FRQFHSWXDO OHYHOV 6SHFLILFDOO\ ZKLFK OHYHO LV DFWLYDWHG GHSHQGV RQ WKH GLUHFWLRQ RI LQWHUODQJXDJH FRQQHFWLRQV ,I PHGLDWLRQ EHWZHHQ ODQJXDJHV SURFHHGV LQ WKH GLUHFWLRQ IURP /, WR / WKH ODQJXDJHV FRQQHFW DW WKH FRQFHSWXDO OHYHO ZKHUH DPRGDO FRQFHSWXDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQV RI OH[LFDO LWHPV DUH DFWLYDWHG ,I ELOLQJXDOV PHGLDWH LQ WKH GLUHFWLRQ IURP / WR /, FRQQHFWLRQV EHWZHHQ / DQG /, ZRUGV DUH HVWDEOLVKHG DW WKH OH[LFDO OHYHO 6XFK FRQQHFWLRQV SURYLGH GLUHFW OH[LFDO OLQNV EHWZHHQ /, DQG / VWRUHV DQG GR QRW UHTXLUH DFWLYDWLRQ RI DPRGDO FRQFHSWXDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQV 6KROO 6DQNDUDQDUD\DQDQ DQG .UROO f XVHG WUDQVIHUDSSURSULDWH ORJLF WR SURYLGH VXSSRUW IRU WKH FRQILJXUDWLRQ RI FRQQHFWLRQV RXWOLQHG LQ WKH UHYLVHG KLHUDUFKLFDO PRGHO $FFRUGLQJ WR WKH SULQFLSOH RI WUDQVIHUDSSURSULDWH SURFHVVLQJ PHPRU\ SHUIRUPDQFH LV D IXQFWLRQ RI WKH RYHUODS EHWZHHQ VWXG\ DQG WHVW RSHUDWLRQV 7KH UHYLVHG KLHUDUFKLFDO PRGHO SUHGLFWV WKDW FRQFHSWXDO DFWLYDWLRQ VKRXOG DIIHFW ELOLQJXDO SHUIRUPDQFH ZKHQ WKH GLUHFWLRQ RI PHGLDWLRQ EHWZHHQ ELOLQJXDOVf WZR ODQJXDJHV SURFHHGV IURP /, WR / EXW QRW LQ WKH RSSRVLWH GLUHFWLRQ (IIHFWV RI SULRU SLFWXUH QDPLQJ RQ WUDQVODWLRQ WLPHV IURP /, WR / DQG IURP / WR /, ZHUH H[DPLQHG WR SURYLGH HYLGHQFH VXSSRUWLQJ WKH W\SHV RI FRQQHFWLRQV SURSRVHG LQ WKH UHYLVHG KLHUDUFKLFDO PRGHO RI ELOLQJXDO PHPRU\ 7KH

PAGE 38

UHVXOWV GHPRQVWUDWHG WKDW WKH PDJQLWXGH RI IDFLOLWDWLRQ IROORZLQJ SLFWXUH QDPLQJ LQ ERWK /, DQG / ZDV JUHDWHU ZKHQ WKH WUDQVODWLRQ ZDV SHUIRUPHG IURP /, WR / WKDQ LQ WKH RSSRVLWH GLUHFWLRQ 7KH UHSRUWHG HIIHFWV ZHUH LQWHUSUHWHG DV UHVXOWLQJ IURP WUDQVIHU WKDW LV SRVVLEOH EHWZHHQ WKH WDVNV WKDW KDYH VLPLODU SURFHVVLQJ UHTXLUHPHQWV 7UDQVODWLRQ DQG SLFWXUH QDPLQJ ZHUH WKRURXJKO\ LQYHVWLJDWHG LQ D QXPEHU RI VWXGLHV 3RWWHU 6R YRQ (FNKDUGW t )HOGPDQ *ODVHU 6QRGJUDV f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f HDFK RI WKHVH FDXVHV KDYH E\ LWVHOI :H PXVW WKHUHIRUH GLVVRFLDWH OH[LFDO DQG FRQFHSWXDO IDFWRUV DW WKH HQFRGLQJ VWDJH RI WKH H[SHULPHQW )RU WKLV SXUSRVH OH[LFDO GHFLVLRQ DQG REMHFW LGHQWLILFDWLRQ WDVNV ZHUH VXEVWLWXWHG IRU SLFWXUH

PAGE 39

QDPLQJ ,Q D OH[LFDO GHFLVLRQ WDVN RQH VKRXOG LGHQWLI\ ZKHWKHU D VWULQJ RI OHWWHUV FRQVWLWXWHV D ZRUG 3UHVHQWLQJ WUDQVODWLRQ VWLPXOL LQ D OH[LFDO GHFLVLRQ WDVN ZDV VXSSRVHG WR HQVXUH SULRU DFWLYDWLRQ RI WKH WDUJHW OH[LFDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQV $Q REMHFW LGHQWLILFDWLRQ WDVN ZDV DVVXPHG WR SURYLGH WKH VDPH DPRXQW RI FRQFHSWXDO DFWLYDWLRQ DV SLFWXUH QDPLQJ .UROO t 3RWWHU f ZLWKRXW WKH H[SOLFLW SURGXFWLRQ RI D OH[LFDO IRUP ,Q WKH REMHFW LGHQWLILFDWLRQ WDVN UHSRUWHG LQ WKH .UROO DQG 3RWWHU f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f\HVf fQRf DQG fGRQfW NQRZff 7KH SULQFLSOHV HPSOR\HG LQ DQ REMHFW VRUWLQJ WDVN DUH YHU\ VLPLODU WR WKH RQHV XVHG LQ FDWHJRUL]DWLRQ 7UDGLWLRQDOO\ FDWHJRUL]DWLRQ ZDV DVVXPHG WR EH D WDVN WKDW FRXOG VXLW WKLV SXUSRVH 'XIRXU t .UROO f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

PAGE 40

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f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f H[SHULPHQW WUDQVODWLRQ UHVSRQVHV WKDW ZHUH IDFLOLWDWHG E\ SULRU SLFWXUH QDPLQJ VKRXOG EH H[DFWO\ WKH VDPH DV QDPLQJ UHVSRQVHV $OWKRXJK DOO H[SHULPHQWDO VWLPXOL ZHUH FRQFUHWH QRXQV RI KLJK LPDJHDELOLW\ PDQ\ RI WKHP ZHUH SRO\VHPRXV OH[HPHV WKDW FRXOG WULJJHU D QXPEHU RI WUDQVODWLRQ UHVSRQVHV LQ ERWK ODQJXDJHV 7KH PRGHO SURSRVHG KHUH PDLQWDLQV WKDW DFWLYDWLRQ RI D SDUWLFXODU VHQVH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK D VWLPXOXV OH[LFDO LWHP GHSHQGV RQ D QXPEHU RI IDFWRUV VXFK DV f D ELOLQJXDOfV IDPLOLDULW\ ZLWK D WDUJHW VHQVH f LWV SURWRW\SH VWDWXV LQ D JLYHQ UHODWLRQDO QHWZRUN f GLIIHUHQFHV LQ UHODWLRQDO RUJDQL]DWLRQ RI HTXLYDOHQW OH[LFDO LWHPV LQ /, DQG / 7KH PRGHO SUHGLFWV WKDW WUDQVIHU IURP WKH VWXG\

PAGE 41

WDVN PD\ QRW EH WKH RQO\ IDFWRU DIIHFWLQJ ELOLQJXDOVf SHUIRUPDQFH DW WHVW 7KH FKRLFH RI D OH[LFDO IRUP LQ WUDQVODWLRQ PD\ EH DIIHFWHG E\ HDFK RI WKH DIRUHPHQWLRQHG IDFWRUV DV ZHOO )RU LQVWDQFH LI D 5XVVLDQ(QJOLVK ELOLQJXDO LV QRW IDPLOLDU ZLWK D WDUJHW VHQVH HJ fVFUHZ QXWff RI WKH (QJOLVK VWLPXOXV OH[LFDO LWHP QXW WKH QRQWDUJHW 5XVVLDQ IRUP RUHK fNHUQHOf ZLOO EH SURGXFHG LQ UHVSRQVH 7KHUHIRUH LW LV FULWLFDO WR GLVWLQJXLVK EHWZHHQ WUDQVODWLRQV WKDW DUH WKH VDPH DV WKH QDPHV DFWLYDWHG E\ SULPHV KHQFHIRUWK SULPHG WUDQVODWLRQVf DQG WUDQVODWLRQV WKDW IDLO WR SURGXFH WDUJHWSULPHG OH[HPHV \HW FRXOG EH FRQVLGHUHG FRUUHFW UHVSRQVHV KHQFHIRUWK XQSULPHG WUDQVODWLRQVf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

PAGE 42

DQG DW D QHDUQDWLYH OHYHO LQ VRPH DUHDV RI / SURGXFWLRQ DQG PRVW DUHDV RI / FRPSUHKHQVLRQ 1R FRPSHQVDWLRQ ZDV RIIHUHG IRU SDUWLFLSDWLRQ 0DWHULDOV 7KH EDVH PDWHULDOV ZHUH ZRUGV VHOHFWHG IURP WKH 6QRGJUDVV DQG 9DQGHUZDUW f SLFWXUHZRUG QRUPV DQG QRQZRUGV JHQHUDWHG RQ WKH EDVLV RI (QJOLVK DQG 5XVVLDQ ZRUGV 7KHUH ZHUH WZR SULPLQJ FRQGLWLRQV DQG WZR WUDQVODWLRQ FRQGLWLRQV 3LFWXUH SULPHV WDUJHW DQG ILOOHU SLFWXUHVf ZHUH SUHVHQWHG LQ WKH REMHFW VRUWLQJ WDVN DQG ZRUG SULPHV WDUJHW ZRUGV 5XVVLDQ DQG (QJOLVK DQG QRQZRUG ILOOHU LWHPVf ZHUH XVHG LQ WKH OH[LFDO GHFLVLRQ WDVN (LJKW\ 5XVVLDQ DQG (QJOLVK ZRUGV ZHUH XVHG LQ HDFK WUDQVODWLRQ FRQGLWLRQ 2XW RI WUDQVODWLRQ VWLPXOL ZRUGV ZHUH SUHYLRXVO\ VKRZQ DV SLFWXUHV ZRUGV ZHUH VHHQ LQ / 5XVVLDQf ZRUGV ZHUH SUHVHQWHG LQ / (QJOLVKf DQG ZRUGV ZHUH QHZXQSULPHG VWLPXOL $OO WUDQVODWLRQ VWLPXOL ZHUH SDUWLDOO\ FRXQWHUEDODQFHG DFURVV IRXU SULPLQJ FRQGLWLRQV SLFWXUH SULPHV /, SULPHV / SULPHV QHZ VWLPXOLXQSULPHGf DQG WZR ODQJXDJH FRQGLWLRQV WUDQVODWLRQ IURP /, WR / DQG IURP / WR /,f 7KH H[SHULPHQWDO VWLPXOL DQG WKH FRQGLWLRQV LQ ZKLFK WKH\ ZHUH SUHVHQWHG DUH OLVWHG LQ $SSHQGL[ 7DEOHV $O DQG $f $SSDUDWXV 7KH H[SHULPHQW ZDV FRQGXFWHG RQ DQ ,%0 FRPSDWLEOH QRWHERRN FRPSXWHU ZLWK D FP FRORU DFWLYHPDWUL[ GLVSOD\ 7KH FRPSXWHU UDQ D SURJUDP ZULWWHQ LQ 4XLFNEDVLF 7KH LQVWUXFWLRQV DQG WKH VWLPXOL ZHUH SUHVHQWHG LQ ZKLWH [ FP OHWWHUV RQ EODFN EDFNJURXQG 3LFWXUH VWLPXOL ZHUH SUHVHQWHG RQ IODVK FDUGV $OO UHVSRQVHV ZHUH RUDO 5HVSRQVHV ZHUH DXGLR UHFRUGHG VR WKH\ FRXOG EH ODWHU FKHFNHG IRU DFFXUDF\

PAGE 43

3URFHGXUH 6LQFH SULPLQJ FRQGLWLRQV ZHUH EORFNHG LQ WKH RULJLQDO VWXG\ QDPLQJ LQ / DQG /f SULPLQJ FRQGLWLRQV ZHUH DOVR EORFNHG LQ WKLV H[SHULPHQW 3DUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH SUHVHQWHG ZLWK D EORFN RI SLFWXUH SULPHV DQG D EORFN RI ZRUG SULPHV EHIRUH WUDQVODWLRQ %ORFNV RI SLFWXUH DQG ZRUG SULPHV ZHUH FRXQWHUEDODQFHG DFURVV SDUWLFLSDQWV 7R HQVXUH SURSHU DFWLYDWLRQ RI SLFWXUH SULPH VWLPXOL SDUWLFLSDQWV KDG WR GHFLGH ZKHWKHU DQ LWHP SUHVHQWHG LQ D SLFWXUH FRXOG EH IRXQG LQ WKHLU KRPH 7KH\ ZHUH UHTXHVWHG WR VRUW SLFWXUHV LQWR WKUHH SLOHV DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH W\SH RI WKH UHVSRQVH WKH\ FRXOG SURYLGH f\HVf fQRf fGRQfW NQRZf ,Q D OH[LFDO GHFLVLRQ WDVN SDUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH DVNHG WR GHFLGH ZKHWKHU D VWLPXOXV LWHP FRQVWLWXWH DQ (QJOLVK ZRUG D 5XVVLDQ ZRUG RU D QRQZRUG :RUG SULPHV ZHUH SUHVHQWHG RQ D FRPSXWHU VFUHHQ $W WKH EHJLQQLQJ RI HYHU\ WULDO D IL[DWLRQ SRLQW DSSHDUHG RQ WKH VFUHHQ ,W ZDV YLVLEOH IRU VHFRQG DQG ZDV LPPHGLDWHO\ IROORZHG E\ VWLPXOXV SUHVHQWDWLRQ 3DUWLFLSDQWV KDG WR SUHVV FRORUFRGHG NH\V DV WKH\ PDGH D GHFLVLRQ UHG IRU 5XVVLDQ ZRUGV JUHHQ IRU (QJOLVK ZRUGV DQG \HOORZ IRU QRQZRUGV 7KH \HOORZ NH\ ZDV SRVLWLRQHG LQ WKH FHQWHU RI WKH NH\ERDUG /HIW DQG ULJKW DVVLJQPHQW RI WKH UHG DQG JUHHQ NH\ ZDV FRXQWHUEDODQFHG DFURVV SDUWLFLSDQWV $V LQ WKH RULJLQDO VWXG\ WUDQVODWLRQV IURP /, WR / DQG IURP / WR /, ZHUH SHUIRUPHG LQ VHSDUDWH EORFNV 7KH RUGHU RI SURGXFWLRQ ODQJXDJH ZDV FRXQWHUEDODQFHG DFURVV SDUWLFLSDQWV 7UDQVODWLRQ VWLPXOL ZHUH SUHVHQWHG RQ D FRPSXWHU VFUHHQ $W WKH EHJLQQLQJ RI HYHU\ WULDO D IL[DWLRQ SRLQW DSSHDUHG RQ WKH VFUHHQ ,W ZDV YLVLEOH IRU VHFRQG DQG ZDV LPPHGLDWHO\ IROORZHG E\ VWLPXOXV SUHVHQWDWLRQ 7UDQVODWLRQ ODWHQFLHV ZHUH PHDVXUHG IRU HYHU\ VWLPXOXV E\ D WLPHU ZKLFK ZDV VHW WR JR RII WKH PRPHQW D

PAGE 44

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f VWXG\ WKDW LV ODWHQFLHV ZLWK YDOXHV JUHDWHU WKDQ VWDQGDUG GHYLDWLRQV DERYH D JLYHQ SDUWLFLSDQWfV PHDQ UHVSRQVH WLPH ZHUH H[FOXGHG IURP WKH DQDO\VLV /DWHQFLHV IURP LQFRUUHFWO\ WUDQVODWHG LWHPV ZHUH QRW LQFOXGHG LQ WKH VHW ,Q DGGLWLRQ DQ LWHP DQDO\VLV RI WUDQVODWLRQ GDWD ZDV SHUIRUPHG 7KUHH VWLPXOXV LWHPV WKDW UHFHLYHG OHVV WKHQ b RI UHVSRQVHV ZHUH UHPRYHG IURP WKH DQDO\VLV EHFDXVH RI WKH ODFN RI GDWD &RUUHFW UHVSRQVHV SURYLGHG WR SULPHG WUDQVODWLRQ VWLPXOL GLG QRW DOZD\V GHQRWH WKH VDPH FRQFHSWV WKDW ZHUH DFWLYDWHG E\ SLFWXUH DQG ZRUG SULPHV $OWKRXJK DOO H[SHULPHQWDO VWLPXOL ZHUH FRQFUHWH QRXQV RI KLJK LPDJHDELOLW\ PDQ\ RI WKHP KDG PXOWLSOH PHDQLQJV &KDQFHV RI SURYLGLQJ XQSULPHG WUDQVODWLRQV ZHUH HTXDOO\ KLJK LQ ERWK GLUHFWLRQV )RU H[DPSOH WKH (QJOLVK ZRUG QDLO PD\ EH WUDQVODWHG LQ 5XVVLDQ DV QRJRWn DQG JYR]Gn WR GHQRWH D KRP\ JURZWK DW WKH HQG RI ILQJHUV DQG WRHV DQG D SRLQWHG SLHFH RI PHWDO UHVSHFWLYHO\ ,Q D OLNH PDQQHU 5XVVLDQ ZRUG OHVWQLFD PHDQV ERWK fODGGHUf DQG fVWDLUFDVHf

PAGE 45

7KH GDWD REWDLQHG LQ WKLV H[SHULPHQW ZDV DQDO\]HG RQ WKH RYHUDOO QXPEHU RI FRUUHFW WUDQVODWLRQV DQG RQ WKH QXPEHU RI SULPHG WUDQVODWLRQV LH WUDQVODWLRQV RI WKH VWLPXOL WKDW SURGXFHG SULPHG OH[LFDO IRUPVf 2YHUDOO 7UDQVODWLRQ 'DWD )LJXUH SUHVHQWV PHDQ WUDQVODWLRQ ODWHQFLHV DV D IXQFWLRQ RI WKH GLUHFWLRQ RI WUDQVODWLRQ IURP /, WR / RU IURP / WR /,f DQG WKH SULPLQJ FRQGLWLRQ LH ZKHWKHU WUDQVODWLRQ VWLPXOL ZHUH SULPHG E\ SLFWXUHV /, ZRUG / ZRUG RU ZHUH QHZXQSULPHGf 7UDQVODWLRQ ODWHQFLHV IRU WKH QHZ LWHPV GHPRQVWUDWHG JUHDWHU DV\PPHWU\ WKDQ WKH DV\PPHWU\ UHSRUWHG LQ WKH 6KROO HW DO f VWXG\ DQG LWV UHSOLFDWLRQ 2Q DYHUDJH WUDQVODWLRQ WLPHV IURP /, WR / ZHUH PV ORQJHU WKDQ WUDQVODWLRQ WLPHV IURP / WR /, PV DQG PV UHVSHFWLYHO\f )LJXUH 2YHUDOO WUDQVODWLRQ GDWD 0HDQ WUDQVODWLRQ ODWHQFLHV DV D IXQFWLRQ RI WKH GLUHFWLRQ RI WUDQVODWLRQ DQG WKH SULPLQJ FRQGLWLRQ

PAGE 46

$ [ $129$ WZR GLUHFWLRQV RI WUDQVODWLRQ /!/ /!/ DQG IRXU SULPLQJ FRQGLWLRQV WUDQVODWLRQ VWLPXOL SULPHG E\ SLFWXUHV /, DQG / ZRUGV DQG QHZXQSULPHGf ZDV SHUIRUPHG RQ PHDQ WUDQVODWLRQ WLPHV XVLQJ SDUWLFLSDQWV DV UDQGRP IDFWRUV $V LQ WKH RULJLQDO VWXG\ WKH DQDO\VLV UHYHDOHG D VLJQLILFDQW PDLQ HIIHFW RI WKH GLUHFWLRQ RI WUDQVODWLRQ )??f +RZHYHU WKH PDLQ HIIHFW RI WKH SULPLQJ FRQGLWLRQ DQG LQWHUDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH GLUHFWLRQ RI WUDQVODWLRQ DQG WKH SULPLQJ FRQGLWLRQ ZHUH QRW VLJQLILFDQW S! f &RPSDULVRQ RI WUDQVODWLRQ ODWHQFLHV LQ ERWK GLUHFWLRQV VKRZHG WKDW /, SULPHV SURGXFHG GLIIHUHQWLDO HIIHFWV 8QOLNH RWKHU WUDQVODWLRQ VWLPXOL WKH FRQFHSWV WKDW ZHUH SUHYLRXVO\ SULPHG E\ /, OH[LFDO LWHPV GLG QRW GHPRQVWUDWH WUDQVODWLRQ DV\PPHWU\ $ RQHn ZD\ $129$ ZLWK SULPLQJ FRQGLWLRQ DV D ZLWKLQ VXEMHFW YDULDEOH ZHUH SHUIRUPHG RQ WUDQVODWLRQ ODWHQFLHV IRU HDFK GLUHFWLRQ 7KH HIIHFW RI WKH SULPLQJ FRQGLWLRQ RQ WUDQVODWLRQ ODWHQFLHV ZDV QRW VLJQLILFDQW LQ ERWK GLUHFWLRQV S!f $GGLWLRQDO SDLUHG VDPSOH WWHVWV RI WUDQVODWLRQ ODWHQFLHV VKRZHG WKDW WKH HIIHFW RI SULPLQJ DSSURDFKHG VLJQLILFDQFH RQO\ LQ WKH GLUHFWLRQ IURP / WR /, 3DUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH PV VORZHU ZKHQ WUDQVODWLQJ VWLPXOL SULPHG E\ /, ZRUGV DV FRPSDUHG WR WKH VWLPXOL SULPHG E\ / ZRUGV I f (IIHFWV RI RWKHU FRQGLWLRQV ZHUH QRW VLJQLILFDQW S!f &RQWUDU\ WR WKH UHVXOWV UHSRUWHG LQ WKH RULJLQDO VWXG\ WKH /WR/O GLUHFWLRQ ZDV PRUH VHQVLWLYH WR GLIIHUHQW SULPLQJ FRQGLWLRQV $FFXUDF\ GDWD DUH JLYHQ LQ 7DEOH DV D IXQFWLRQ RI WKH GLUHFWLRQ RI WUDQVODWLRQ DQG WKH SULPLQJ FRQGLWLRQ $V LQ WKH RULJLQDO VWXG\ SDUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH PRUH DFFXUDWH ZKHQ WUDQVODWLQJ IURP / WR /, WKDQ LQ WKH RSSRVLWH GLUHFWLRQ $ [ $129$ SHUIRUPHG RQ WKH DFFXUDF\ GDWD XVLQJ SDUWLFLSDQWV DV UDQGRP IDFWRUV GHPRQVWUDWHG D VLJQLILFDQW PDLQ HIIHFW RI WKH GLUHFWLRQ RI WUDQVODWLRQ )f S. ,Q DGGLWLRQ WKH DQDO\VLV

PAGE 47

UHYHDOHG D VLJQLILFDQW LQWHUDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH GLUHFWLRQ RI WUDQVODWLRQ DQG WKH SULPLQJ FRQGLWLRQ )f 7KH HIIHFW RI WKH SULPLQJ FRQGLWLRQ ZDV QRW VLJQLILFDQW S!f $ RQHZD\ $129$ ZLWK WKH SULPLQJ FRQGLWLRQ DV D ZLWKLQVXEMHFW YDULDEOH ZDV SHUIRUPHG RQ DFFXUDF\ GDWD IRU HDFK GLUHFWLRQ 7KH HIIHFW RI SULPLQJ ZDV VLJQLILFDQW LQ WKH GLUHFWLRQ IURP /, WR / )f DQG ZDV PDUJLQDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW LQ WKH RSSRVLWH GLUHFWLRQ ) f S $GGLWLRQDO SDLUHG VDPSOH WWHVWV UHYHDOHG WKDW ERWK OH[LFDO / ZRUGf DQG FRQFHSWXDO SLFWXUHf SULPHV SURGXFHG HTXDO HIIHFWV LQ WKH GLUHFWLRQ IURP /, WR / IOf ,Q / WR /, WUDQVODWLRQ SDUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH OHVV DFFXUDWH ZKHQ WUDQVODWLQJ VWLPXOL SULPHG E\ SLFWXUHV WKDQ XQSULPHG VWLPXOL RU VWLPXOL SULPHG E\ / ZRUGV S DQGW S UHVSHFWLYHO\f 7DEOH 3URSRUWLRQ RI FRUUHFW WUDQVODWLRQV LQ GLIIHUHQW SULPLQJ FRQGLWLRQV 3ULPLQV FRQGLWLRQ 3LFWXUH /, ZRUG / ZRUG 8Q'ULPHG /OWR/ 67' /WR/O 67' 3ULPHG 7UDQVODWLRQV /DWHQFLHV RI XQSULPHG WUDQVODWLRQV ZHUH UHPRYHG IURP WKH VHW RI WKH RYHUDOO WUDQVODWLRQ GDWD 5HVSRQVHV WKDW GLG QRW PDWFK / SLFWXUH QDPHV RU / OH[LFDO IRUPV SUHVHQWHG DW VWXG\ ZHUH UHPRYHG IURP /OWR/ WUDQVODWLRQ GDWD DQG FRQYHUVHO\ UHVSRQVHV WKDW GLG QRW PDWFK /, SLFWXUH QDPHV DQG /, ZRUG SULPHV ZHUH UHPRYHG IURP /WR/O WUDQVODWLRQ GDWD 7UDQVODWLRQ GDWD RI QHZ LWHPV UHPDLQHG WKH VDPH DV LQ WKH

PAGE 48

DQDO\VLV RI WKH RYHUDOO WUDQVODWLRQ GDWD 2Q DYHUDJH WULDOV ZHUH RPLWWHG LQ /OWR/ WUDQVODWLRQV DQG WULDOV ZHUH RPLWWHG LQ /WR/O WUDQVODWLRQV LQ D GDWD VHW REWDLQHG IURP D VLQJOH SDUWLFLSDQW $ OLVW RI XQSULPHG WUDQVODWLRQV LV SURYLGHG LQ $SSHQGL[ 7DEOH $f 7DEOH $ FRPSDULVRQ RI PHDQ WUDQVODWLRQ ODWHQFLHV LQ VHFRQGV IRU WKH RYHUDOO DQG WKH SULPHG WUDQVODWLRQ GDWD 3ULPHG WUDQVODWLRQ ODWHQFLHV DUH JLYHQ LQ SDUHQWKHVHV LI GLIIHUHQW IURP RYHUDOO WUDQVODWLRQ ODWHQFLHV 3ULPLQX FRQGLWLRQ 3LFWXUH /, ZRUG / ZRUG 8Q'ULPHG /OWR/ f f 67' f f /WR/O f f 67' 7DEOH SUHVHQWV D FRPSDULVRQ RI WUDQVODWLRQ ODWHQFLHV IRU WKH RYHUDOO DQG WKH SULPHG WUDQVODWLRQ GDWD VHWV $V UHSRUWHG LQ WKH UHSOLFDWLRQ RI 6KROO HW DO f FRPSDULVRQ RI WKH RYHUDOO DQG SULPHG WUDQVODWLRQ ODWHQFLHV UHYHDOHG RQO\ D QHJOLJLEOH GLIIHUHQFH $ [ $129$ SHUIRUPHG RQ PHDQ WUDQVODWLRQ ODWHQFLHV XVLQJ SDUWLFLSDQWV DV UDQGRP IDFWRUV VKRZHG WKH HIIHFWV DV UHSRUWHG LQ WKH DQDO\VLV RI WKH RYHUDOO WUDQVODWLRQ GDWD 7KHUH ZDV D VLJQLILFDQW PDLQ HIIHFW RI GLUHFWLRQ RI WUDQVODWLRQ )Of 7KH PDLQ HIIHFW RI SULPLQJ DQG WKH LQWHUDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH GLUHFWLRQ RI WUDQVODWLRQ DQG WKH SULPLQJ FRQGLWLRQ ZHUH QRW VLJQLILFDQW S!f $ RQHZD\ $129$ ZLWK SULPLQJ FRQGLWLRQ DV D ZLWKLQVXEMHFW YDULDEOH GLG QRW VKRZ D VLJQLILFDQW HIIHFW RI SULPLQJ LQ ERWK GLUHFWLRQV S!f

PAGE 49

, ,f K L R 2 m 2 J nf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f ,QWHUDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH GLUHFWLRQ RI WUDQVODWLRQ DQG WKH WUDQVIHU FRQGLWLRQ ZDV DOVR VLJQLILFDQW )f S 6HSDUDWH RQHZD\ $129$ ZLWK WKH WUDQVIHU FRQGLWLRQ DQG WKH GLUHFWLRQ RI WUDQVODWLRQ DV ZLWKLQVXEMHFW YDULDEOHV ZHUH SHUIRUPHG RQ DFFXUDF\ RI WKH SULPHG WUDQVODWLRQ GDWD &RQWUDU\ WR WKH SUHYLRXV DQDO\VLV SULPLQJ HIIHFWV A RYHUDOO Â’ SULPHG Â’ Â’ Â’ Â’ Â’ A Â’ e F /, / / /,

PAGE 50

ZHUH QR ORQJHU VLJQLILFDQW LQ WKH GLUHFWLRQ IURP /, WR /S! ZKHUHDV LQ WKH RSSRVLWH GLUHFWLRQ SULPLQJ HIIHFWV EHFDPH VLJQLILFDQW )f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f SURSRVHG WKDW PRUH IOXHQW ELOLQJXDOV PD\ JUDGXDOO\ VZLWFK WR FRQFHSW PHGLDWLRQ LQ ERWK GLUHFWLRQV $FFRUGLQJ WR WKHLU SURSRVDO DV IOXHQF\ LQFUHDVHV ELOLQJXDOV VZLWFK WR FRQFHSWXDO PHGLDWLRQ LQ ERWK

PAGE 51

GLUHFWLRQV ,Q VXFK D FDVH WUDQVODWLRQ DV\PPHWU\ VKRXOG EH VLJQLILFDQWO\ UHGXFHG DQG WUDQVIHU EHWZHHQ SLFWXUH QDPLQJ DQG WUDQVODWLRQ VKRXOG EH HIIHFWLYH LQ ERWK GLUHFWLRQV $FFRUGLQJ WR 6KROO HW DO f WUDQVIHU HIIHFWV DUH DQ LQGLFDWLRQ RI FRQFHSWXDO OHYHO SURFHVVLQJ GXULQJ WUDQVODWLRQ ,Q WKH 6KROO HW DO f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! f $OWKRXJK VHQVLWLYLW\ WR GLIIHUHQFHV LQ OH[LFDO VWLPXOL LQ WKH GLUHFWLRQ IURP / WR /, DJUHHV ZLWK WKH DVVXPSWLRQ WKDW WKDW WUDQVODWLRQ LQ WKLV GLUHFWLRQ LV SHUIRUPHG DW WKH OH[LFDO OHYHO RI SURFHVVLQJ LW FRQWUDGLFWV WKH FRQMHFWXUH WKDW WKH ORFXV

PAGE 52

RI WUDQVIHU LV QRW DW WKH OHYHO RI UHWULHYLQJ WKH OH[LFDO IRUP 7KH OHDGLQJ DVVXPSWLRQ RI WKH UHYLVHG KLHUDUFKLFDO PRGHO LH WKDW WUDQVODWLRQ IURP / WR /, LV HVVHQWLDOO\ D OH[LFDOOHYHO WDVNf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f DQG RQ WKH EDVLV RI UHVSRQVHV ZKLFK SURGXFHG H[DFWO\ WKH VDPH OH[LFDO IRUPV DV ZHUH VXSSRVHG WR EH DFWLYDWHG E\ SULPHV SULPHG DFFXUDF\f 7KH HIIHFWV UHSRUWHG LQ WKH DQDO\VLV RI WKH RYHUDOO DFFXUDF\ FRQIRUP WR SUHGLFWLRQV WKDW IROORZ IURP WKH UHYLVHG KLHUDUFKLFDO PRGHO 7KDW LV LQ WKH GLUHFWLRQ IURP /, WR / ELOLQJXDOV ZHUH PRUH DFFXUDWH LQ WKHLU WUDQVODWLRQV RI WKH VWLPXOL WKDW ZHUH SUHYLRXVO\ SUHVHQWHG DV SLFWXUHV DQG / ZRUGV ZKHUHDV LQ WKH RSSRVLWH GLUHFWLRQ QHLWKHU RI WKH SULPLQJ FRQGLWLRQV ZHUH

PAGE 53

VLJQLILFDQWO\ GLIIHUHQW +LJKHU UHVSRQVH DFFXUDF\ WR WKH VWLPXOL SULPHG E\ SLFWXUHV DQG / ZRUGV LQ /OWR/ WUDQVODWLRQ FRXOG EH LQWHUSUHWHG DV HYLGHQFH RI WUDQVIHU WKDW RFFXUV LQ WKH GLUHFWLRQ IURP /, WR / +RZHYHU DQ LWHPL]HG DQDO\VLV RI WKH DFFXUDF\ GDWD UHYHDOHG WKDW QRW DOO FRUUHFW WUDQVODWLRQV FRXOG UHVXOW IURP SULRU SUHVHQWDWLRQ RI D SULPH )RU H[DPSOH LQ WKH 5XVVLDQ ODQJXDJH WKH ZRUG OHVWQLFD LV XVHG WR GHQRWH WZR FRQFHSWV WKDW KDYH GLVWLQFW OH[LFDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQV LQ (QJOLVK fODGGHUf DQG fVWDLUFDVHff ,Q WUDQVODWLRQ IURP /, WR / WKH VWLPXOXV OHVWQLFD ZDV XQSULPHG LQ RQH VXEVHW RI VWLPXOL DQG ZDV SULPHG E\ D SLFWXUH RI D ODGGHU E\ WKH 5XVVLDQ ZRUG OHVWQLFD DQG E\ WKH (QJOLVK ZRUG ODGGHU LQ RWKHU VXEVHWV ,Q /OWR/ WUDQVODWLRQ ERWK (QJOLVK ZRUGV ZHUH SURGXFHG UHJDUGOHVV RI WKH SULPLQJ FRQGLWLRQ ,Q WKH VXEVHWV ZKHUH WKH FRQFHSW RI ODGGHU ZDV DFWLYDWHG HLWKHU E\ D SLFWXUH RU E\ WKH (QJOLVK ZRUG fVWDLUVf RU fVWDLUFDVHf ZHUH FRQVLGHUHG XQSULPHG UHVSRQVHV 8QSULPHG UHVSRQVHV ZHUH UHPRYHG IURP WKH DQDO\VLV RI WKH SULPHG WUDQVODWLRQV 7KH DQDO\VLV UHYHDOHG WKDW DFWXDO HIIHFWV RI SULPLQJ ZHUH WKH UHYHUVH RI ZKDW ZDV H[SHFWHG SULPLQJ HIIHFWV ZHUH VLJQLILFDQW RQO\ LQ WKH GLUHFWLRQ IURP / WR /, DQG DV ZLWK WKH ODWHQF\ GDWD WKH HIIHFW RI WUDQVIHU ZDV QHJDWLYH LQ WKLV GLUHFWLRQ 7KH FRPELQHG HYLGHQFH IURP WKH RYHUDOO DQG SULPHG DFFXUDF\ DQDO\VHV LQGLFDWH WKDW KLJKHU DFFXUDF\ UDWLR RI UHVSRQVHV WR SULPHG WUDQVODWLRQ VWLPXOL GLG QRW UHVXOW IURP WUDQVIHU VLQFH WKH SURSRUWLRQ RI WDUJHW OH[LFDO LWHPV SURGXFHG LQ UHVSRQVH WR SULPHG WUDQVODWLRQ VWLPXOL ZHUH ORZHU WKDQ WKH SURSRUWLRQ RI FRUUHFW WUDQVODWLRQV SURYLGHG LQ UHVSRQVH WR XQSULPHG WUDQVODWLRQ VWLPXOL VHH )LJXUH f 7KH UHVXOWV VXJJHVW WKDW ERWK OH[LFDO DQG FRQFHSWXDO SULPLQJ PD\ QRW EH FRQVLGHUHG D UHOLDEOH IDFWRU DIIHFWLQJ WUDQVODWLRQ DFFXUDF\ 7UDQVODWLRQ DFFXUDF\ LV D

PAGE 54

FRPSOH[ QRWLRQ WKDW LV DIIHFWHG E\ D ELOLQJXDOfV IDPLOLDULW\ ZLWK SDWWHUQV RI OH[LFDO FRQFHSWXDO RUJDQL]DWLRQ LQ WKH WDUJHW ODQJXDJH $ VHW RI OH[LFDO LWHPV DFWLYDWHG E\ D SDUWLFXODU FRQFHSW PD\ EH GLIIHUHQW LQ D ELOLQJXDOf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f 7KXV PHPRU\ SHUIRUPDQFH KDV EHHQ GHPRQVWUDWHG WR EH QRW RQO\ WKH IXQFWLRQ RI WKH RYHUODS EHWZHHQ HQFRGLQJ DQG UHWULHYDO FRQGLWLRQV EXW DOVR WKH IXQFWLRQ RI WKH LQWHUDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ WDVN GHPDQGV DQG VWLPXOXV SURFHVVLQJ UHTXLUHPHQWV 6LQFH LQ WKH 6KROO HW DO f VWXG\ WKH PDMRU HPSKDVLV ZDV SXW RQ WKH IRUPHU WKH UHVXOWV PD\ QRW EH D FRPSUHKHQVLYH UHIOHFWLRQ RI ELOLQJXDO PHPRU\ SHUIRUPDQFH

PAGE 55

&+$37(5 (;3(5,0(17 5(3/,&$7,21 2) 7+( 6+2// (7 $/ f 678'< ,Q WKH 6KROO HW DO f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f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f ,W LV QRW FOHDU IURP WKH DQDO\VLV UHSRUWHG E\ 6KROO HW DO f ZKHWKHU

PAGE 56

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f DQG KDG VWXGLHG (QJOLVK DV D IRUHLJQ ODQJXDJH IRU DW OHDVW \HDUV RQ DYHUDJHf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f 7KHUH ZHUH SLFWXUHV VHOHFWHG IURP WKH 6QRGJUDVV DQG 9DQGHUZDUW f QRUPV 3LFWXUH QDPHV IRUPHG D YDULHW\ RI VXSHURUGLQDWH FDWHJRULHV LQ ERWK (QJOLVK DQG

PAGE 57

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f $SSDUDWXV 7KH H[SHULPHQW ZDV FRQGXFWHG RQ DQ ,%0 FRPSDWLEOH QRWHERRN FRPSXWHU ZLWK D FP FRORU DFWLYHPDWUL[ GLVSOD\ 7KH H[SHULPHQW UDQ D FRPSXWHU SURJUDP ZULWWHQ LQ 4XLFNEDVLF 7KH LQVWUXFWLRQV DQG WKH VWLPXOL ZHUH SUHVHQWHG LQ ZKLWH [ FP OHWWHUV RQ EODFN EDFNJURXQG $OO UHVSRQVHV ZHUH RUDO 5HVSRQVHV ZHUH DXGLRWDSHG VR WKH\ FRXOG EH ODWHU FKHFNHG IRU DFFXUDF\

PAGE 58

3URFHGXUH 3DUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH SUHVHQWHG ZLWK WZR EORFNV RI SLFWXUH VWLPXOL DQG ZHUH DVNHG WR QDPH HDFK EORFN RI SLFWXUHV LQ WKHLU ILUVW 5XVVLDQf DQG VHFRQG (QJOLVKf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n ZD\ $129$ ZDV SHUIRUPHG RQ QDPLQJ ODWHQFLHV XVLQJ SDUWLFLSDQWV DV UDQGRP IDFWRUV

PAGE 59

3LFWXUH QDPLQJ ODQJXDJH ZDV D ZLWKLQVXEMHFWV YDULDEOH %LOLQJXDOV ZHUH PRUH IOXHQW ZKHQ QDPLQJ SLFWXUHV LQ /, PVf WKDQ LQ / PVf WKH REVHUYHG GLIIHUHQFH ZDV VLJQLILFDQW )Of S $ RQHZD\ $129$ SHUIRUPHG RQ DFFXUDF\ GDWD VKRZHG WKDW ELOLQJXDOV ZHUH VLJQLILFDQWO\ PRUH DFFXUDWH ZKHQ QDPLQJ SLFWXUHV LQ /, b FRUUHFWf WKDQ LQ / b FRUUHFWf )f M $QDO\VLV RI WKH QDPLQJ HUURUV UHYHDOHG WKDW PRVW HUURUV LQ /, DQG / ZHUH HVVHQWLDOO\ WLSRIWKHWRQJXH SKHQRPHQD 3DUWLFLSDQWV FRPPHQWHG WKDW WKH\ ZHUH IDPLOLDU ZLWK ERWK /, DQG / QDPHV EXW WKH\ FRXOG QRW DFFHVV WKHP DW WKH WLPH 7KH DQDO\VLV RI WKH QDPLQJ GDWD VKRZHG WKDW DOWKRXJK SDUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH VOLJKWO\ GRPLQDQW LQ /, WKH\ ZHUH HTXDOO\ IOXHQW LQ ERWK ODQJXDJHV 2YHUDOO 7UDQVODWLRQ 7KH GDWD REWDLQHG LQ WKH WUDQVODWLRQ WDVN ZDV WULPPHG DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH VDPH SULQFLSOH DV LQ WKH 6KROO HW DO f VWXG\ WKDW LV ODWHQFLHV ZLWK YDOXHV JUHDWHU WKDQ VWDQGDUG GHYLDWLRQV DERYH D JLYHQ SDUWLFLSDQWfV PHDQ UHVSRQVH WLPH ZHUH UHPRYHG IURP WKH VHW ,Q DGGLWLRQ ODWHQFLHV IURP LQFRUUHFWO\ WUDQVODWHG LWHPV ZHUH DOVR UHPRYHG )LJXUH SUHVHQWV PHDQ WUDQVODWLRQ ODWHQFLHV DV D IXQFWLRQ RI WKH GLUHFWLRQ RI WUDQVODWLRQ IURP /, WR / RU IURP / WR /,f DQG WKH WUDQVIHU FRQGLWLRQ LH ZKHWKHU WUDQVODWLRQ VWLPXOL ZHUH SUHYLRXVO\ QDPHG DV SLFWXUHV LQ /, / RU ZKHWKHU WKH VWLPXOL ZHUH QHZf $V LQ 6KROO HW DO f WUDQVODWLRQ ODWHQFLHV IRU WKH QHZ LWHPV GHPRQVWUDWHG VRPH DV\PPHWU\ 2Q DYHUDJH WUDQVODWLRQ WLPHV IURP /, WR / ZHUH PV ORQJHU WKDQ WUDQVODWLRQ WLPHV IURP / WR /, PV DQG PV UHVSHFWLYHO\f

PAGE 60

$ 'LUHFWLRQ RI 7UDQVODWLRQ IURP /, WR / DQG IURP / WR /,f [ 7UDQVIHU &RQGLWLRQ FRQFHSWV ZHUH SUHYLRXVO\ QDPHG LQ /, LQ / DQG SUHVHQWHG DV QHZf $129$ ZDV SHUIRUPHG RQ PHDQ WUDQVODWLRQ ODWHQFLHV XVLQJ SDUWLFLSDQWV DV UDQGRP IDFWRUV )LJXUH 2YHUDOO WUDQVODWLRQ GDWD 0HDQ WUDQVODWLRQ ODWHQFLHV DV D IXQFWLRQ RI GLUHFWLRQ RI WUDQVODWLRQ DQG WUDQVIHU FRQGLWLRQ /, ILUVW ODQJXDJH / VHFRQG ODQJXDJH 'LUHFWLRQ RI WUDQVODWLRQ DQG WUDQVIHU FRQGLWLRQ ZHUH FRQVLGHUHG ZLWKLQVXEMHFW YDULDEOHV 7KH DQDO\VLV GLG QRW VKRZ VLJQLILFDQW PDLQ HIIHFWV RI WKH GLUHFWLRQ RI WUDQVODWLRQ RU WKH WUDQVIHU FRQGLWLRQ S!f 1HLWKHU GLG LW UHYHDO D VLJQLILFDQW LQWHUDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH YDULDEOHV )f $ FRPSDULVRQ RI WUDQVODWLRQ WLPHV LQ ERWK GLUHFWLRQV VKRZHG WKDW RQO\ WKH ZRUGV WKDW ZHUH SUHYLRXVO\ QDPHG LQ / ZHUH FKDUDFWHUL]HG E\ VKRUWHU WUDQVODWLRQ ODWHQFLHV ZKHQ FRPSDUHG WR QHZ ZRUGV $ RQHZD\ $129$ ZLWK WUDQVIHU FRQGLWLRQ DV D ZLWKLQ VXEMHFW YDULDEOH ZDV SHUIRUPHG RQ WUDQVODWLRQ ODWHQFLHV IRU HDFK GLUHFWLRQ 7KH HIIHFW RI

PAGE 61

WKH WUDQVIHU FRQGLWLRQ RQ WUDQVODWLRQ ODWHQFLHV ZDV QRW VLJQLILFDQW LQ HLWKHU GLUHFWLRQ )f $GGLWLRQDO SDLUHG VDPSOH WWHVWV RI WUDQVODWLRQ ODWHQFLHV GLG QRW UHYHDO DQ\ VLJQLILFDQW HIIHFWV S! f 7KH ODWHQF\ GDWD REWDLQHG LQ WKLV H[SHULPHQW GLG QRW UHSOLFDWH HIIHFWV UHSRUWHG E\ 6KROO HW DO f 7DEOH 3URSRUWLRQ RI FRUUHFW UHVSRQVHV IRU SUHVHQWHG SULPHGf DQG QHZ XQSULPHGf VWLPXOL 3URSRUWLRQ RI FRUUHFW SULPHG WUDQVODWLRQV DUH JLYHQ LQ SDUHQWKHVLV LI GLIIHUHQW IURP WKH RYHUDOO DFFXUDF\ YDOXHV LH DOO FRUUHFW WUDQVODWLRQV DUH FRQVLGHUHGf 3ULPLQJ FRQGLWLRQ /, QDPLQJ / QDPLQJ 8Q'ULPHG /OWR/ WUDQVODWLRQ f 67' f /WR/O WUDQVODWLRQ f 67' $FFXUDF\ GDWD DUH JLYHQ LQ 7DEOH DV D IXQFWLRQ RI WKH GLUHFWLRQ RI WUDQVODWLRQ DQG WKH WUDQVIHU FRQGLWLRQ $V LQ WKH 6KROO HW DO f VWXG\ SDUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH PRUH DFFXUDWH ZKHQ WUDQVODWLQJ IURP / WR /, WKDQ LQ WKH RSSRVLWH GLUHFWLRQ +RZHYHU FRQWUDU\ WR WKH HIIHFWV UHSRUWHG E\ 6KROO HW DO f DQ $129$ SHUIRUPHG RQ DFFXUDF\ GDWD GHPRQVWUDWHG D VLJQLILFDQW LQWHUDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH GLUHFWLRQ RI WUDQVODWLRQ DQG WKH WUDQVIHU FRQGLWLRQ )f 7KH HIIHFWV RI WKH GLUHFWLRQ RI WUDQVODWLRQ DQG WKH WUDQVIHU FRQGLWLRQ ZHUH QRW VLJQLILFDQW S!f $ RQHZD\ $129$ ZLWK WKH WUDQVIHU FRQGLWLRQ DV D ZLWKLQVXEMHFW YDULDEOH ZDV SHUIRUPHG RQ DFFXUDF\ GDWD IRU HDFK GLUHFWLRQ 7KH HIIHFW RI WKH WUDQVIHU FRQGLWLRQ ZDV QRW VLJQLILFDQW LQ HLWKHU GLUHFWLRQ ) f $GGLWLRQDO SDLUHG VDPSOH WWHVWV UHYHDOHG WKDW WKH HIIHFW RI SULRU QDPLQJ RQO\ DSSURDFKHG VLJQLILFDQFH LQ WKH /OWR/ GLUHFWLRQ 3DUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH PRUH DFFXUDWH ZKHQ WUDQVODWLQJ

PAGE 62

WKH FRQFHSWV WKDW ZHUH SUHYLRXVO\ QDPHG LQ /, WKDQ LQ / L S f 7KH GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ WKH QHZ FRQGLWLRQ DQG HDFK RI WKH ROG FRQGLWLRQV ZRUGV QDPHG LQ / DQG /f ZDV QRW VLJQLILFDQW S!f 3ULPHG 7UDQVODWLRQ 7KH ODWHQFLHV RI XQSULPHG WUDQVODWLRQV ZHUH UHPRYHG IURP WKH VHW RI WKH RYHUDOO WUDQVODWLRQ GDWD 5HVSRQVHV WKDW GLG QRW PDWFK / SLFWXUH QDPHV SURGXFHG LQ WKH VWXG\ ZHUH UHPRYHG IURP /OWR/ WUDQVODWLRQ GDWD DQG FRQYHUVHO\ UHVSRQVHV WKDW GLG QRW PDWFK /, SLFWXUH QDPHV ZHUH UHPRYHG IURP /WR/O WUDQVODWLRQ GDWD 7UDQVODWLRQ GDWD RI QHZ LWHPV UHPDLQHG WKH VDPH DV LQ WKH DQDO\VLV RI WKH RYHUDOO WUDQVODWLRQ GDWD 2Q DYHUDJH WULDOV ZHUH RPLWWHG LQ /OWR/ WUDQVODWLRQV DQG WULDO ZDV RPLWWHG LQ / WR/O WUDQVODWLRQV LQ D GDWD VHW REWDLQHG IURP D VLQJOH SDUWLFLSDQW $ OLVW RI XQSULPHG WUDQVODWLRQV LV SURYLGHG LQ $SSHQGL[ 7DEOH $f 7DEOH SUHVHQWV D FRPSDULVRQ RI WUDQVODWLRQ ODWHQFLHV IRU WKH RYHUDOO DQG WKH SULPHG WUDQVODWLRQ GDWD VHWV 7DEOH 0HDQ WUDQVODWLRQ ODWHQFLHV LQ VHFRQGV DV D IXQFWLRQ RI WKH GLUHFWLRQ RI WUDQVODWLRQ DQG WKH WUDQVIHU FRQGLWLRQ /, QDPLQJ / QDPLQJ XQSULPHGf 3ULPHG WUDQVODWLRQ GDWD DUH JLYHQ LQ SDUHQWKHVLV LI GLIIHUHQW IURP WKH RYHUDOO WUDQVODWLRQ GDWD 3ULPLQJ FRQGLWLRQ /, QDPLQJ / QDPLQJ 8Q'ULPHG /OWR/ WUDQVODWLRQ f 67' f /WR/O WUDQVODWLRQ f 67' $V LQ WKH DQDO\VLV RI WKH RYHUDOO WUDQVODWLRQ GDWD D [ $129$ ZDV SHUIRUPHG RQ PHDQ WUDQVODWLRQ ODWHQFLHV XVLQJ SDUWLFLSDQWV DV UDQGRP IDFWRUV 'LUHFWLRQ RI

PAGE 63

WUDQVODWLRQ DQG WUDQVIHU FRQGLWLRQ ZHUH FRQVLGHUHG DV ZLWKLQVXEMHFW YDULDEOHV $V LQ WKH DQDO\VLV RI WKH RYHUDOO WUDQVODWLRQ GDWD WKHUH ZHUH QR PDLQ HIIHFWV RI H[SHULPHQWDO YDULDEOHV 1HLWKHU GLUHFWLRQ RI WUDQVODWLRQ QRU WUDQVIHU FRQGLWLRQ ZHUH VLJQLILFDQW )f 7KHUH ZDV QR VLJQLILFDQW LQWHUDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH YDULDEOHV )?f $Q DGGLWLRQDO RQHZD\ $129$ ZLWK WUDQVIHU FRQGLWLRQ DV D ZLWKLQVXEMHFW YDULDEOH GLG QRW VKRZ DQ\ VLJQLILFDQW HIIHFWV )f 7KH SULPHG DFFXUDF\ GDWD DUH JLYHQ LQ 7DEOH LQ SDUHQWKHVLV $ [ $129$ ZDV SHUIRUPHG RQ WKH DFFXUDF\ GDWD ZLWK WKH GLUHFWLRQ RI WUDQVODWLRQ DQG WKH WUDQVIHU FRQGLWLRQ DV ZLWKLQVXEMHFW YDULDEOHV $V LQ WKH DQDO\VLV RI WKH RYHUDOO WUDQVODWLRQ GDWD WKH HIIHFWV RI WKH GLUHFWLRQ RI WUDQVODWLRQ DQG WKH WUDQVIHU FRQGLWLRQ ZHUH QRW VLJQLILFDQW S!f +RZHYHU FRQWUDU\ WR WKH SUHYLRXV DQDO\VLV LQWHUDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH GLUHFWLRQ RI WUDQVODWLRQ DQG WKH WUDQVIHU FRQGLWLRQ ZDV QR ORQJHU VLJQLILFDQW S! 6HSDUDWH RQHZD\ $129$ ZLWK WKH WUDQVIHU FRQGLWLRQ DQG WKH GLUHFWLRQ RI WUDQVODWLRQ DV ZLWKLQVXEMHFW YDULDEOHV ZHUH SHUIRUPHG RQ DFFXUDF\ RI WKH SULPHG WUDQVODWLRQ GDWD 1HLWKHU RI WKH DQDO\VHV UHYHDOHG VLJQLILFDQW HIIHFWV )f $GGLWLRQDO SDLUHG VDPSOH WWHVWV GLG QRW VKRZ DQ\ VLJQLILFDQW HIIHFWV S!f 'LVFXVVLRQ 7KH UHVXOWV RI WKH H[SHULPHQW GLG QRW UHSOLFDWH HIIHFWV UHSRUWHG E\ 6KROO HW DO f 6LQFH H[SHULPHQWDO GHVLJQV ZHUH LGHQWLFDO LQ WKH RULJLQDO VWXG\ DQG LQ LWV UHSOLFD WKH HIIHFWV FRXOG KDYH EHHQ LQIOXHQFHG E\ GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ WKH WZR JURXSV RI SDUWLFLSDQWV $QDO\VHV RI QDPLQJ GDWD GHPRQVWUDWHG D FOHDU GLIIHUHQFH LQ / SURILFLHQF\ OHYHOV EHWZHHQ ELOLQJXDOV HPSOR\HG LQ ERWK VWXGLHV /, DQG / QDPLQJ ODWHQFLHV REWDLQHG

PAGE 64

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b ZKHUHDV RQO\ b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f GRPLQDQFH LQ WKHLU ILUVW ODQJXDJH &RQVHTXHQWO\ WKH DFFXUDF\ GDWD FDQ EH FRQVLGHUHG D UHOLDEOH PHDVXUH RI WUDQVIHU EHWZHHQ

PAGE 65

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f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

PAGE 66

DFFXUDF\ GDWD 7KH UHSRUWHG FDVHV RI FRUUHFW XQSULPHG WUDQVODWLRQ SRVHV D VHULRXV SUREOHP IRU WKH UHYLVHG KLHUDUFKLFDO PRGHO 7KH PRGHO GRHV QRW KDYH D PHDQV WR DFFRXQW IRU WKHP PDLQO\ EHFDXVH LW GRHV QRW KDYH D FRPSRQHQW ZKLFK FDQ KDQGOH WKH IPHUJUDLQ LVVXHV RI UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ VXFK DV SRO\VHP\ DQG KRPRSKRQ\ $FFRUGLQJ WR WKH PRGHO WUDQVODWLRQ UHVSRQVHV VKRXOG EH SULPHG E\ SULRU FRQFHSWXDO DFWLYDWLRQ RQO\ ZKHQ ELOLQJXDOV HPSOR\ FRQFHSWXDO OHYHO ZKLOH WUDQVODWLQJ 7KHUHIRUH DFFXUDF\ RI OHVV IOXHQWXQEDODQFHG ELOLQJXDOV VKRXOG EH DIIHFWHG LQ /OWR/ WUDQVODWLRQ ZKHUHDV WUDQVODWLRQ DFFXUDF\ RI PRUH IOXHQW VSHDNHUV VKRXOG GHPRQVWUDWH WUDQVIHU HIIHFWV LQ ERWK GLUHFWLRQV RU DV VXJJHVWHG LQ &KDSWHU PD\ QRW VKRZ WUDQVIHU HIIHFWV LQ HLWKHU GLUHFWLRQ GXH WR WKH ODFN RI WUDQVODWLRQ DV\PPHWU\ 7KH ODWWHU ZDV QRW VXSSRUWHG E\ WKH GDWD UHSRUWHG LQ 6KROO HW DO f 7KH DQDO\VLV RI DFFXUDF\ GDWD RI XQEDODQFHG ELOLQJXDOV GHPRQVWUDWHG PDLQ HIIHFWV RI WKH WUDQVIHU FRQGLWLRQ LQ ERWK GLUHFWLRQV DOWKRXJK LW ZDV PDLQWDLQHG WKDW ELOLQJXDO SDUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH FRQFHSW PHGLDWRUV RQO\ LQ WKH GLUHFWLRQ IURP /, WR / 7KH ODWWHU ZDV GUDZQ RQ WKH EDVLV RI ODWHQF\ GDWDf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

PAGE 67

ZRUG ZLOO DOVR EH HVWDEOLVKHG GXULQJ / QDPLQJ LQ ZKLFK FDVH DFFXUDWH WUDQVODWLRQ LV SRVVLEOH RQO\ ZKHQ /, VWLPXOXV ZLOO DFWLYDWH H[DFWO\ WKH VDPH UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ DV WKH RQH DFWLYDWHG LQ / QDPLQJ )RU H[DPSOH DFWLYDWLRQ RI D FRQQHFWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH FRQFHSW fVWRROf DQG LWV /, OH[LFDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ WDEXUHW GLG QRW DOZD\V HQVXUH DQ DFFXUDWH /OWR / WUDQVODWLRQ LH VWRROf 5HVSRQVHV WKDW ZHUH FRQVLGHUHG DV LQDFFXUDWH ZHUH RPLVVLRQV DQG SURGXFWLRQV RI WKH EDVLF OHYHO WHUP FKDLU 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG DQ DFWLYDWLRQ RI WKH FRQFHSW fPRRQf LQ / QDPLQJ GLG QRW DOZD\V KHOS WR HVWDEOLVK D FRQQHFWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH FRQFHSW DQG LWV / UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ PHV fDF $V D UHVXOW D GLIIHUHQW FRQFHSW fPRQWKff ZDV DFWLYDWHG XSRQ SUHVHQWDWLRQ RI WKH /, VWLPXOXV PHFf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f H[SODLQ ZK\ WUDQVODWLRQ VWLPXOL PD\ QRW DFWLYDWH WKH VDPH FRQFHSWV DV WKH RQHV DFWLYDWHG GXULQJ SLFWXUH QDPLQJ DQG f SUHGLFW FDVHV LQ ZKLFK SULRU SLFWXUH QDPLQJ IDLOV WR SULPH WDUJHW WUDQVODWLRQV 2QH VROXWLRQ WR WKLV SUREOHP LV WR GHILQH D IUDPHZRUN WKDW ZLOO UHFRJQL]H LVVXHV RI ODQJXDJHVSHFLILF OH[LFDOFRQFHSWXDO RUJDQL]DWLRQ DV FHQWUDO WR WKH LVVXH RI OH[LFDO DFFHVV

PAGE 68

&+$37(5 5(/$7,21 $66(660(17 $ 7(67 2) 7+( 352326(' 02'(/ 2) &21&(378$/ 6758&785( 0$33,1* (DUOLHU SURSRVHG PRGHOV RI ELOLQJXDO PHPRU\ ZHUH GHVLJQHG WR DFFRPPRGDWH H[SHULPHQWDO HYLGHQFH DULVLQJ IURP VSHFLILF WDVN GHPDQGV RQ VLQJOHZRUG VWLPXOL /DWHQF\ GDWD REWDLQHG IURP GDWDGULYHQ DQG FRQFHSWXDOO\GULYHQ WDVN ZDV WDNHQ DV HYLGHQFH RI D GLVVRFLDWLRQ EHWZHHQ OH[LFDO DQG FRQFHSWXDO SURFHVVLQJ RI ZRUG VWLPXOL +RZHYHU DV GHPRQVWUDWHG LQ WKH UHSRUWHG UHSOLFDWLRQV RI 6KROO HW DO f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f DQG LVRODWHG XQSULPHGf FRQGLWLRQV 7KH UHODWLRQ DVVHVVPHQW WDVN ZDV VHOHFWHG EHFDXVH LW FDQ GHPRQVWUDWH SURWRW\SH HIIHFWV DQG GHJUHHV RI DFWLYDWLRQ VSUHDGLQJ DULVLQJ LQ WKH UHODWLRQDO RUJDQL]DWLRQ RI WKH WDUJHW ZRUG VWLPXOL 3URWRW\SH HIIHFWV DUH JHQHUDOO\ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WZR WKLQJV WKH VHQVHV RI D VWLPXOXV WKDW H[KLELW KLJKHU SHUFHSWXDO VDOLHQFH RU WKH VHQVHV WKDW DUH PRVW RIWHQ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH

PAGE 69

JLYHQ OH[LFDO IRUPV +HQFH D ZRUG SDLU ZLWK FORVHO\ UHODWHG SURWRW\SLFDO VHQVHV VKRXOG \LHOG VKRUWHU ODWHQFLHV $PRQJ WKH FDXVHV RI WKLV LV WKH LPPHGLDWH DYDLODELOLW\ RI WKH WDUJHW VHQVHV XSRQ WKH DFWLYDWLRQ RI WKH VWLPXOXVf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fV SHUIRUPDQFH VKRXOG SURYLGH HYLGHQFH IRU WKH UHODWLRQDO RUJDQL]DWLRQ LQ WKH ELOLQJXDOfV GRPLQDQW FRQFHSWXDO VWUXFWXUH 7ZR SUHGLFWLRQV ZHUH PDGH 7KH HYLGHQFH VKRXOG EH SDUWLFXODUO\ VDOLHQW LQ WKH LVRODWHG FRQGLWLRQ +RZHYHU VLQFH SURWRW\SH HIIHFWV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK D SDUWLFXODU RUJDQL]DWLRQ LQ WKH GRPLQDQW FRQFHSWXDO VWUXFWXUH DUH SUHVXPDEO\ DIIHFWHG E\ FRQWH[WXDOO\ HPEHGGLQJ WKH OH[LFDO VWLPXOL WKH GDWD REWDLQHG IURP ELOLQJXDO DQG PRQROLQJXDO VSHDNHUV LQ WKH SULPHG FRQGLWLRQ VKRXOG UHYHDO FRPSDUDEOH SDWWHUQV RI DFWLYDWLRQ

PAGE 70

([SHULPHQW 0HWKRG 3DUWLFLSDQWV )RXU JURXSV RI PRQROLQJXDO DQG ELOLQJXDO VSHDNHUV SDUWLFLSDWHG LQ WKH H[SHULPHQW 7KH SDUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH VWXGHQWV DQG YLVLWLQJ VFKRODUV DW WKH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI )ORULGD 7KH IOXHQF\ RI ELOLQJXDO VSHDNHUV ZDV DW WKH OHYHO WKDW IXOILOOV WKH (QJOLVK ODQJXDJH UHTXLUHPHQW DW WKH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI )ORULGD ZKLFK FRUUHVSRQGV WR D VFRUH RI RU KLJKHU RQ 72()/ 7HVW RI (QJOLVK DV D )RUHLJQ /DQJXDJHf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fIRUWXQHf fZHDOWKff ,Q

PAGE 71

GLVWDQWO\ UHODWHG SDLUV WKH SURWRW\SLFDO PHDQLQJ RI RQH OH[LFDO LWHP ZDV FORVHO\ UHODWHG WR D QRQSURWRW\SLFDO PHDQLQJ RI WKH RWKHU OH[LFDO LWHP LQ WKH SDLU HJ fOLPLWf fFHLOLQJff ,Q XQUHODWHG ZRUG SDLUV QRQH RI WKH VHQVHV LQ WKH QHWZRUNV RI WKH VWLPXOXV OH[LFDO LWHPV ZHUH FRQVLGHUHG WR EH UHODWHG HJ fMXLFHf fVRFNff 7KH UHODWHGQHVV FDWHJRUL]DWLRQ ZDV EDVHG RQ UHODWHGQHVV UDWLQJV RI WKUHH QDWLYH VSHDNHUV RI (QJOLVK DQG ZHUH IRXQG WR EH LQ DJUHHPHQW ZLWK SULPDU\ PHDQLQJV RI WKH VWDQGDUG YDULHW\ RI $PHULFDQ (QJOLVK DV UHIOHFWHG LQ WKH 1HZ :HEVWHUfV 'LFWLRQDU\ 7KH FRUSXV RI WKH VWLPXOL LQ WKH SULPHG FRQGLWLRQ FRQVLVWHG RI WDUJHW DQG ILOOHU (QJOLVK ZRUG SDLUV ZKLFK ZHUH SUHFHGHG E\ VHQWHQFHV 7KH WDUJHW ZRUG SDLUV ZHUH WKH VDPH DV LQ WKH XQSULPHG FRQGLWLRQ 7KH VHQWHQFHV XVHG DV SULPHV ZHUH LQWHQGHG WR DFWLYDWH FRQWH[WXDO IUDPHV KLJKOLJKWLQJ WDUJHW FRQFHSWXDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQV )RU H[DPSOH WKH ZRUG SDLU fOLPLWf fFHLOLQJf ZDV SUHFHGHG E\ WKH VHQWHQFH f7KH DGPLQLVWUDWLRQ KDV LQWURGXFHG QHZ FHLOLQJV RQ WKH YDOXH RI SUHIHUHQWLDO FRQWUDFWV IRU PLQRULWLHVf 7KH VHQWHQFHV ZHUH VHOHFWHG IURP DXWKHQWLF (QJOLVK WH[WV DYDLODEOH WKURXJK /(;,61(;,6 RQOLQH QHZV VHUYLFH 6WLPXOXV PDWHULDOV XVHG LQ WKLV DQG RWKHU UHODWLRQ DVVHVVPHQW H[SHULPHQWV DUH SURYLGHG LQ $SSHQGL[ 7DEOH $f $SSDUDWXV 7KH H[SHULPHQW ZDV FRQGXFWHG RQ DQ ,%0 FRPSDWLEOH QRWHERRN FRPSXWHU ZLWK D FP FRORU DFWLYH PDWUL[ GLVSOD\ 7KH H[SHULPHQW UDQ D FRPSXWHU SURJUDP ZULWWHQ LQ 4XLFNEDVLF 7KH LQVWUXFWLRQV DQG WKH VWLPXOL ZHUH SUHVHQWHG LQ ZKLWH [ FP OHWWHUV RQ EOXH EDFNJURXQG

PAGE 72

3URFHGXUH 7KH H[SHULPHQW FRQIRUPHG WR D [ [ PL[HG IDFWRULDO GHVLJQ 7KH LQGHSHQGHQW YDULDEOH PDQLSXODWHG ZLWKLQ SDUWLFLSDQWV KDG WKUHH YDOXHV FRUUHVSRQGLQJ WR WKH GLVWDQFH EHWZHHQ WKH SURWRW\SLFDO PHDQLQJV RI WKH ZRUGV SUHVHQWHG LQ D SDLU 7KH ZRUG SDLUV ZHUH JURXSHG LQWR WKUHH VHWV FORVHO\ UHODWHG GLVWDQWO\ UHODWHG DQG XQUHODWHG %LQDU\ ODQJXDJH PRQROLQJXDO YV ELOLQJXDOf DQG SULPLQJ XQSULPHG YV SULPHGf FRQGLWLRQV ZHUH GLVWULEXWHG EHWZHHQ IRXU JURXSV RI SDUWLFLSDQWV 5HDFWLRQ WLPHV LQ PLOOLVHFRQGV DQG SHUFHQW RI SRVLWLYH MXGJPHQWV LQ WKH UHODWHGQHVV GHFLVLRQ ZHUH DVVHVVHG DV GHSHQGHQW YDULDEOHV ,Q WKH XQSULPHG FRQGLWLRQ WKH ZRUGV FRQVWLWXWLQJ D SDLU ZHUH SUHVHQWHG FRQVHFXWLYHO\ 6WLPXOXV DQG LQWHUVWLPXOXV LQWHUYDOV ZHUH VHW DXWRPDWLFDOO\ DW VHFRQG 7KH WLPHU ZDV VHW WR JR RII WKH PRPHQW WKH VHFRQG ZRUG DSSHDUHG RQ WKH VFUHHQ 3DUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH LQVWUXFWHG WR PDNH MXGJPHQWV RI WKH VHPDQWLF UHODWHGQHVV EHWZHHQ WKH ZRUGV 7KH\ KDG WR UHVSRQG DV VRRQ DV WKH\ UHDG DQG XQGHUVWRRG WKH VHFRQG ZRUG LQ D SDLU 5HVSRQVH NH\V PDUNHG E\ f\HVf DQG fQRf FDSV ZHUH DOVR FRORU FRGHG JUHHQ DQG UHG UHVSHFWLYHO\ 7KH f\HVf DQG fQRf UHVSRQVH NH\V ZHUH ORFDWHG DW RSSRVLWH HQGV RI WKH FRPSXWHU NH\ERDUG WR HQVXUH DFFXUDF\ RI UHVSRQVHV /HIW DQG ULJKW DVVLJQPHQW RI f\HVf DQG fQRf NH\V ZDV FRXQWHUEDODQFHG DFURVV SDUWLFLSDQWV 3DUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH LQVWUXFWHG WR SUHVV D ZKLWH NH\ LQ WKH FHQWHU RI WKH NH\ERDUG LI WKH\ GLG QRW NQRZ WKH ZRUGVf (DFK WULDO ZDV IROORZHG E\ DQ DXWRPDWLFDOO\ VHW EUHDN WKDW DOORZHG WKH SDUWLFLSDQW WR VHOISDFH WKH H[SHULPHQW ,Q WKH SULPHG FRQGLWLRQ HYHU\ WULDO ZDV SUHFHGHG E\ D VHQWHQFH RU WZR 7KH VHQWHQFHV FRPSULVHG OHVV WKDQ IRXU OLQHV RQ D FRPSXWHU VFUHHQ ,Q RUGHU WR HQVXUH WKDW SDUWLFLSDQWV DWWHQGHG WR WKH VHQWHQFH VWLPXOL HDFK VHQWHQFH ZDV IROORZHG E\ D

PAGE 73

FRPSUHKHQVLRQ TXHVWLRQ ZLWK IRXU SRVVLEOH DQVZHUV 5HVSRQVHV ZHUH PDGH E\ SUHVVLQJ WKH QXPEHU RI D FKRVHQ DQVZHU 7KH FRPSXWHU UHFRUGHG RQO\ WKH FRUUHFWQHVV RI WKH UHVSRQVH WR WKH FRPSUHKHQVLRQ TXHVWLRQ %RWK H[SHULPHQWDO VHVVLRQV ZHUH SUHFHGHG E\ D WUDLQLQJ VHVVLRQ ZKLFK DOORZHG SDUWLFLSDQWV WR IDPLOLDUL]H WKHPVHOYHV ZLWK WKH WDVN 3DUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH WHVWHG LQGLYLGXDOO\ 7KH H[SHULPHQW ODVWHG IURP WR PLQXWHV LQ WKH XQSULPHG FRQGLWLRQ DQG IURP WR PLQXWHV LQ WKH SULPHG FRQGLWLRQ 5HVXOWV DQG 'LVFXVVLRQ 7KH GDWD IURP SDUWLFLSDQWV ZKR KDG PHDQ UHDFWLRQ WLPHV KLJKHU WKDQ VHFRQGV IRU PRQROLQJXDO VSHDNHUV RU VHFRQGV IRU ELOLQJXDO VSHDNHUV DQG D VWDQGDUG GHYLDWLRQ KLJKHU WKDQ ZHUH UHPRYHG IURP WKH VHW DV RXWO\LQJ 7R HQVXUH FRPSDUDEOH OHYHOV RI VHFRQG ODQJXDJH SURILFLHQF\ WKH GDWD IURP ELOLQJXDO VSHDNHUV ZKR SURYLGHG fGRQfW NQRZf UHVSRQVHV WR PRUH WKDQ b RI WKH VWLPXOXV SDLUV DQG ZKR VFRUHG ORZHU WKDQ %2 b RQ WKH FRPSUHKHQVLRQ WHVW LQ WKH SULPHG FRQGLWLRQ ZHUH DOVR UHPRYHG IURP WKH VHW 7KH UHPDLQLQJ GDWD IURP PRQROLQJXDO DQG ELOLQJXDO VSHDNHUV LQ WKH XQSULPHG FRQGLWLRQ DQG PRQROLQJXDO DQG ELOLQJXDO VSHDNHUV LQ WKH SULPHG FRQGLWLRQ ZHUH DQDO\]HG $QDO\VHV RI YDULDQFH $129$f ZHUH SHUIRUPHG RQ PHDQ UHVSRQVH WLPHV DQG SHUFHQWDJH RI SRVLWLYH MXGJPHQWV XVLQJ SDUWLFLSDQWV DV UDQGRP IDFWRUV 5HODWHGQHVV MXGJPHQWV )LJXUH SUHVHQWV WKH SHUFHQWDJH RI SRVLWLYH MXGJPHQWV DV D IXQFWLRQ RI QHWZRUN GLVWDQFH DQG SULPLQJ IRU ERWK ELOLQJXDO DQG PRQROLQJXDO VSHDNHUV 7KH UHVXOWV GHPRQVWUDWH D KLJKO\ VLJQLILFDQW PDLQ HIIHFW RI QHWZRUN GLVWDQFH )f S $OWKRXJK WKH HIIHFW RI SULPLQJ ZDV RQO\ PDUJLQDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW )Of

PAGE 74

Sf WKH LQWHUDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ QHWZRUN GLVWDQFH DQG SULPLQJ ZDV VLJQLILFDQW )f S 3ULPLQJ PDGH VRPH GLVWDQW PHDQLQJV PRUH VDOLHQW DQG DV D UHVXOW WKH ZRUGV LQ WKH FDWHJRU\ RI GLVWDQWO\ UHODWHG ZRUG SDLUV ZHUH MXGJHG DV UHODWHG DSSUR[LPDWHO\ b PRUH RIWHQ LQ WKH SULPHG FRQGLWLRQ WKDQ LQ WKH XQSULPHG FRQGLWLRQ E\ ERWK PRQROLQJXDO DQG ELOLQJXDO JURXSV RI VSHDNHUV )LJXUH 0HDQ SHUFHQWDJH RI SRVLWLYH MXGJPHQWV DV D IXQFWLRQ RI QHWZRUN GLVWDQFH IRU ELOLQJXDO DQG PRQROLQJXDO VSHDNHUV LQ XQSULPHG DQG SULPHG FRQGLWLRQV 7KHUH ZDV QR PDLQ HIIHFW RI WKH ODQJXDJH YDULDEOH )f LQGLFDWLQJ WKDW WKH UHVSRQVH W\SHV SURYLGHG E\ PRQROLQJXDO DQG ELOLQJXDO VSHDNHUV ZHUH HTXLYDOHQW 6HSDUDWH $129$ ZHUH SHUIRUPHG RQ ELOLQJXDO DQG PRQROLQJXDO GDWD WR GLVFRYHU SRVVLEOH GLIIHUHQWLDO HIIHFWV RI GLVWDQFH DQG SULPLQJ RQ GLIIHUHQW JURXSV RI VSHDNHUV 7KH DQDO\VLV RI WKH ELOLQJXDO GDWD UHYHDOHG PDLQ HIIHFWV RI GLVWDQFH DQG SULPLQJ )f S DQG )Of S UHVSHFWLYHO\ DQG D VLJQLILFDQW LQWHUDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ

PAGE 75

GLVWDQFH DQG SULPLQJ )f "f 7KH DQDO\VLV RI WKH PRQROLQJXDO GDWD GHPRQVWUDWH RQO\D PDLQ HIIHFW RI GLVWDQFH )f Sf $OWKRXJK WKH PDLQ HIIHFW RI ODQJXDJH ZDV QRW VLJQLILFDQW WKH VHSDUDWH DQDO\VHV GHPRQVWUDWHG WKDW UHODWHGQHVV MXGJPHQWV SURYLGHG E\ ELOLQJXDOV ZHUH JUHDWO\ DIIHFWHG E\ WKH SULRU SUHVHQWDWLRQ RI WDUJHW OH[LFDO LWHPV LQ PHDQLQJIXO FRQWH[WV LQ WKH SULPHG FRQGLWLRQ )RU H[DPSOH WKH SHUFHQW RI SRVLWLYH MXGJPHQWV SURYLGHG E\ PRQROLQJXDO VSHDNHUV IRU WKH SURWRW\SLFDO DQG QRQSURWRW\SLFDO PHDQLQJ LQ WKH ZRUG SDLU fFHLOLQJffOLPLWf LQFUHDVHG IURP WR IROORZLQJ SUHVHQWDWLRQ RI WKH SULPH VHQWHQFH f7KH DGPLQLVWUDWLRQ KDV LQWURGXFHG QHZ FHLOLQJV RQ WKH YDOXH RI SUHIHUHQWLDO FRQWUDFWV IRU PLQRULWLHVf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

PAGE 76

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f DV D IXQFWLRQ RI QHWZRUN GLVWDQFH IRU ELOLQJXDO DQG PRQROLQJXDO VSHDNHUV LQ XQSULPHG DQG SULPHG FRQGLWLRQV

PAGE 77

)Of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f S2Q WKH DYHUDJH WKH SDUWLFLSDQWV UHTXLUHG PV ORQJHU WR UHVSRQG WR GLVWDQWO\ UHODWHG ZRUG SDLUV WKDQ WR FORVHO\ UHODWHG ZRUG SDLUV DQG WKH\ UHTXLUHG PV ORQJHU WR UHVSRQG WR XQUHODWHG ZRUG SDLUV WKDQ WR GLVWDQWO\ UHODWHG ZRUG SDLUV 7KH UHVXOWV VXSSRUW WKH SUHGLFWLRQ WKDW WKH SURWRW\SLFDO PHDQLQJV RI WKH OH[LFDO LWHPV DUH DFFHVVHG IDVWHU WKDQ QRQSURWRW\SLFDO PHDQLQJV 7KH SDLUHG VDPSOH WWHVW GHPRQVWUDWHG VWDWLVWLFDO VLJQLILFDQFH LQ UHVSRQVH WLPHV EHWZHHQ FORVHO\ DQG GLVWDQWO\ UHODWHG ZRUG SDLUV S f DQG EHWZHHQ FORVHO\ UHODWHG DQG XQUHODWHG ZRUG SDLUV W S f 7KH ODWHQF\ GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ GLVWDQWO\ UHODWHG DQG XQUHODWHG ZRUG SDLUV ZDV QRW VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW 7KLV IDFW LQGLFDWHV WKDW VSHDNHUV DEDQGRQ WKH VHDUFK ZKHQ WKH DFFHVVHG QRQSURWRW\SLFDO PHDQLQJV LQ WKH QHWZRUNV RI WKH WZR OH[LFDO LWHPV IDLO WR PDWFK 3ULPLQJ UHGXFHG WKH UHVSRQVH ODWHQFLHV RI ELOLQJXDOV DQG PRQROLQJXDOV E\ DSSUR[LPDWHO\ DQG PV UHVSHFWLYHO\ +RZHYHU WKH HIIHFW RI SULPLQJ ZDV QRW VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW S! $ $129$ SHUIRUPHG RQ WKH UHVSRQVH ODWHQFLHV RI

PAGE 78

PRQROLQJXDO VSHDNHUV GHPRQVWUDWHG D PDLQ HIIHFW RI SULPLQJ )f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f 7KH WKUHH ZD\ LQWHUDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ ODQJXDJH QHWZRUN GLVWDQFH DQG SULPLQJ RQO\ DSSURDFKHG VLJQLILFDQFH DW)f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

PAGE 79

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f GRPLQDQW ODQJXDJHV 7KH VHPDQWLF UHODWLRQV EHWZHHQ SURWRW\SLFDO DQG QRQSURWRW\SLFDO VHQVHV LQ GLVWDQWO\ UHODWHG SDLUV RI WKH WDUJHW ODQJXDJH PD\ QRW EH SUHVHQW LQ WKH UHODWLRQDO RUJDQL]DWLRQ RI WKH HTXLYDOHQW OH[LFDO LWHPV LQ ELOLQJXDOVf GRPLQDQW ODQJXDJHV &RQVHTXHQWO\ ELOLQJXDOV ZLWK GLIIHUHQW GRPLQDQW FRQFHSWXDO VWUXFWXUHV ZHUH H[SHFWHG WR GHPRQVWUDWH GLVWLQFW UHODWHGQHVV MXGJPHQWV

PAGE 80

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f ZDV GLVWULEXWHG EHWZHHQ WKH WKUHH JURXSV RI (QJOLVK 5XVVLDQ DQG 6SDQLVK QDWLYH VSHDNHUV 5HDFWLRQ WLPHV LQ

PAGE 81

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f S $OWKRXJK WKH )LJXUH 0HDQ SHUFHQWDJH RI SRVLWLYH MXGJPHQWV RQ ZRUG PHDQLQJ UHODWHGQHVV DV D IXQFWLRQ RI RUJDQL]DWLRQDO GLIIHUHQFHV LQ FRQFHSWXDO VWUXFWXUHV RI ELOLQJXDO DQG PRQROLQJXDO VSHDNHUV (QJOLVK (QJOLVK PRQROLQJXDOV 5XVVLDQ 5XVVLDQ(QJOLVK ELOLQJXDOV 6SDQLVK 6SDQLVK(QJOLVK ELOLQJXDOVf

PAGE 82

DQDO\VLV RI SRVLWLYH MXGJPHQWV RQ ZRUG UHODWHGQHVV GHPRQVWUDWHG WKH HIIHFW RI ODQJXDJH DV QRQVLJQLILFDQW SDLUHG VDPSOH WWHVWV GHPRQVWUDWHG WKDW WKH VSHDNHUV RI WKH WKUHH ODQJXDJHV SURYLGHG GLIIHUHQW MXGJPHQWV DERXW ZRUG UHODWHGQHVV LQ SDLUV 7KXV WKH WHVWV GHPRQVWUDWHG VWDWLVWLFDO VLJQLILFDQFH LQ MXGJPHQWV SURYLGHG E\ (QJOLVK PRQROLQJXDOV DQG 5XVVLDQ(QJOLVK ELOLQJXDOV IRU XQUHODWHG DQG GLVWDQWO\ UHODWHG ZRUG SDLUV W O S DQG f§ S UHVSHFWLYHO\f 7KH UHVSRQVHV RI 5XVVLDQ(QJOLVK DQG 6SDQLVK (QJOLVK VSHDNHUV UHYHDOHG PDUJLQDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH LQ WKHLU MXGJPHQWV IRU RQO\ GLVWDQWO\ UHODWHG ZRUG SDLUV W S Of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n HYLGHQFH IRU WKH K\SRWKHVLV EHLQJ WHVWHG WKDW LV WKH GLIIHUHQFHV LQ MXGJPHQWV RI GLIIHUHQW ODQJXDJH JURXSV UHIOHFWV WKH SURILFLHQF\ OHYHO RI ELOLQJXDO VSHDNHUV +RZHYHU ERWK ELOLQJXDO JURXSV SURGXFHG FRPSDUDEOH UHVSRQVH ODWHQFLHV )LJXUH f ZKLFK ZHUH VLJQLILFDQWO\ ORQJHU WKDQ WKH ODWHQFLHV SURGXFHG E\ PRQROLQJXDO VSHDNHUV 7KH FRPELQHG

PAGE 83

HYLGHQFH VXJJHVWV WKDW SURILFLHQF\ LV RQO\ RQH RI WKH IDFWRUV DIIHFWLQJ ELOLQJXDO SHUIRUPDQFH $QRWKHU IDFWRU LV GLVWLQFW UHODWLRQDO RUJDQL]DWLRQ ZLWKLQ WKH FRQFHSWXDO VWUXFWXUHV RI D ELOLQJXDOfV WZR ODQJXDJHV $V SUHGLFWHG WKH PDMRU GLIIHUHQFHV ZHUH GHPRQVWUDWHG LQ WKH UHODWHGQHVV MXGJPHQWV RI WKH GLVWDQWO\ UHODWHG ZRUG SDLUV 7KHVH GLIIHUHQFHV DQG WKH PDUJLQDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW LQWHUDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ ODQJXDJH DQG GLVWDQFH YDULDEOHV ) f .f VXSSRUW WKH DVVXPSWLRQ WKDW ODQJXDJHVSHFLILF UHODWLRQDO RUJDQL]DWLRQ LQIOXHQFHV WKH SHUIRUPDQFH RI ELOLQJXDO VSHDNHUV DQG WKHUHIRUH VKRXOG QRW EH GLVUHJDUGHG E\ PRGHOV RI ELOLQJXDO PHPRU\ 5HVSRQVH ODWHQFLHV )LJXUH SUHVHQWV WKH PHDQ UHVSRQVH WLPHV DV D IXQFWLRQ RI WKH VHPDQWLF QHWZRUN GLVWDQFH IRU ELOLQJXDO DQG PRQROLQJXDO VSHDNHUV $V LQ ([SHULPHQW WKH UHVSRQVH WLPHV GHPRQVWUDWHG D PDLQ HIIHFW RI ODQJXDJH LQ WKH EHWZHHQVXEMHFW FRQGLWLRQ )f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

PAGE 84

WKH VHPDQWLF VWUXFWXUHV RI WKH WZR ODQJXDJHV DQG WR VXSSUHVV WKH GRPLQDQW ODQJXDJH LQ FDVHV ZKHUH LWV VWUXFWXUH GRHV QRW FRLQFLGH ZLWK WKH VWUXFWXUH RI WKH ODQJXDJH EHLQJ XVHG )LJXUH 0HDQ UHVSRQVH ODWHQFLHV LQ VHFRQGVf DV D IXQFWLRQ RI RUJDQL]DWLRQDO GLIIHUHQFHV LQ FRQFHSWXDO VWUXFWXUHV RI ELOLQJXDO DQG PRQROLQJXDO VSHDNHUV (QJOLVK (QJOLVK PRQROLQJXDOV 5XVVLDQ 5XVVLDQ(QJOLVK ELOLQJXDOV 6SDQLVK 6SDQLVK (QJOLVK ELOLQJXDOVf 7KH HIIHFW RI QHWZRUN GLVWDQFH ZDV QRW VLJQLILFDQW S!f 7KH SDLUHG VDPSOH W WHVW EHWZHHQ WKH YDOXHV RI WKH VHPDQWLF QHWZRUN GLVWDQFH YDULDEOH GHPRQVWUDWHG VWDWLVWLFDO VLJQLILFDQFH RQO\ LQ WKH UHVSRQVH WLPHV RI 6SDQLVK(QJOLVK ELOLQJXDOV EHWZHHQ FORVHO\ DQG GLVWDQWO\ UHODWHG ZRUG SDLUV S f 7KH ODWHQF\ GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ RWKHU FRQGLWLRQV ZHUH QRW VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW 7KH DQDO\VHV RI UHVSRQVH WLPHV GLG QRW UHYHDO VLJQLILFDQW LQWHUDFWLRQV EHWZHHQ ODQJXDJH DQG GLVWDQFH YDULDEOHV $V VXJJHVWHG HDUOLHU WKH IDLUO\ ORQJ VWLPXOXV DQG LQWHUVWLPXOXV LQWHUYDOV WRWDOLQJ VHFRQGVf PLJKW KDYH EHHQ ZK\

PAGE 85

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n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f DQG KDG VWXGLHG (QJOLVK DV D IRUHLJQ ODQJXDJH IRU DW OHDVW \HDUV RQ DYHUDJHf EHIRUH FRPLQJ WR WKH 86 7KH DJH RI WKH SDUWLFLSDQWV UDQJHG IIRPO WR $W WKH EHJLQQLQJ RI HDFK H[SHULPHQWDO VHVVLRQ ELOLQJXDO SDUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH UHTXHVWHG WR ILOO RXW D TXHVWLRQQDLUH DERXW WKHLU ODQJXDJH OHDUQLQJ H[SHULHQFHV DQG ZHUH DOVR DVNHG WR HYDOXDWH WKHLU / SURILFLHQF\ 3DUWLFLSDQWV QRWHG WKHLU GRPLQDQFH LQ 5XVVLDQ 7KH\ GLG

PAGE 86

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f ZDV XVHG WR GHQRWH WKH JUHDWHVW UHODWHGQHVV DQG WKH PLQLPXP YDOXH f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

PAGE 87

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f\HVf UHVSRQVHV UHG IRU fQRf UHVSRQVHV DQG ZKLWH LI WKH\ GLG QRW NQRZ WKH ZRUGVf 7KH ZKLWH NH\ ZDV SRVLWLRQHG LQ WKH FHQWHU RI WKH NH\ERDUG /HIW DQG ULJKW DVVLJQPHQW RI WKH UHG DQG JUHHQ NH\V ZDV FRXQWHU EDODQFHG

PAGE 88

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fV PHDQ UHVSRQVH WLPH ZHUH H[FOXGHG IURP WKH DQDO\VLV 'DWD VHWV RI WKH SDUWLFLSDQW ZKR GLG QRW UHVSRQG WR PRUH WKDQ b RI WULDOV LQFOXGLQJ WKRVH WKDW ZHUH UHPRYHG ZKHQ WKH ODWHQF\ GDWD ZDV WULPPHGf ZHUH QRW LQFOXGHG LQ WKH DQDO\VLV 7KH UHPDLQLQJ GDWD IURP ELOLQJXDO DQG PRQROLQJXDO VSHDNHUV ZHUH DQDO\]HG +DOI RI WKH GDWD ZHUH REWDLQHG LQ UHVSRQVH WR VWLPXOXV VHW DQG WKH RWKHU KDOI ZDV SURGXFHG LQ UHVSRQVH WR VWLPXOXV VHW 6LQFH WKH SXUSRVH RI WKH H[SHULPHQW ZDV WR GHPRQVWUDWH ODQJXDJHVSHFLILF DQG FRQWH[W HIIHFWV RQ ZRUG VWLPXOXV SURFHVVLQJ $129$ ZHUH SHUIRUPHG RQ WKH VDPH VHW RI VWLPXOL XVLQJ SDUWLFLSDQWV DV UDQGRP IDFWRUV $V D UHVXOW VHSDUDWH DQDO\VHV ZHUH SHUIRUPHG IRU HDFK VWLPXOXV VHW

PAGE 89

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nf S DQG )Of f UHVSHFWLYHO\f 7KH HIIHFW RI SULPLQJ RQO\ DSSURDFKHG VLJQLILFDQFH )Of SOf 7ZRZD\ LQWHUDFWLRQV EHWZHHQ GLVWDQFH DQG ODQJXDJH GLVWDQFH DQG SULPLQJ DQG ODQJXDJH DQG SULPLQJ DQG D WKUHHZD\ LQWHUDFWLRQ

PAGE 90

EHWZHHQ GLVWDQFH ODQJXDJH DQG SULPLQJ ZHUH DOVR VLJQLILFDQW )f S )f I; ) f S DQG )f S UHVSHFWLYHO\f $V LQ ([SHULPHQW WKH UHVSRQVHV RI ELOLQJXDO DQG PRQROLQJXDO VSHDNHUV ZHUH HTXDOO\ DIIHFWHG E\ SULPLQJ 7KH SRVLWLYH MXGJPHQWV SURYLGHG IRU GLVWDQWO\ DQG FORVHO\ UHODWHG ZRUGV ZHUH VLJQLILFDQWO\ IDFLOLWDWHG E\ WKH SULRU DFWLYDWLRQ RI D UHOHYDQW FRQWH[WXDO IUDPH )DFLOLWDWLRQ ZDV JUHDWHU LQ UHVSRQVHV WR GLVWDQWO\ UHODWHG ZRUGV 2Q DYHUDJH WKHUH ZDV DQ b LQFUHDVH LQ SRVLWLYH MXGJPHQWV SURYLGHG IRU GLVWDQWO\ UHODWHG ZRUGV DV FRPSDUHG WR D b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

PAGE 91

/ OH[LFDO LWHPV )RU H[DPSOH WKH PHDQLQJ UHODWLRQV EHWZHHQ FORVHO\ UHODWHG ZRUGV LQ SDLUV VXFK DV fZDWFKf fJXDUGf fVKDUSf fFOHYHUf fGUDLQf fHPSW\f DUH QRW DV HDVLO\ HVWDEOLVKHG EHWZHHQ WKH 5XVVLDQ HTXLYDOHQWV RI WKH LQGLYLGXDO OH[LFDO LWHPV 'LVWDQW PHDQLQJ UHODWLRQV EHWZHHQ ZRUGV LQ SDLUV VXFK DV fVKRXOGHUf fHGJHf fEXJf fGHIHFWf fEHGf fIRXQGDWLRQf fIRRWf fEDVHf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b LQFUHDVH LQ WKH SULPHG FRQGLWLRQ DV FRPSDUHG WR D b LQFUHDVH UHSRUWHG LQ WKH GDWD RI 5XVVLDQ(QJOLVK ELOLQJXDOV )LJXUH SUHVHQWV PHDQ UHVSRQVH ODWHQFLHV RI ELOLQJXDO DQG PRQROLQJXDO VSHDNHUV DV D IXQFWLRQ RI SULPLQJ DQG QHWZRUN GLVWDQFH $ [ [ $129$ SHUIRUPHG RQ PHDQ UHVSRQVH ODWHQFLHV XVLQJ SDUWLFLSDQWV DV UDQGRP IDFWRUV GHPRQVWUDWHG WKDW HIIHFWV RI GLVWDQFH ODQJXDJH DQG SULPLQJ ZHUH QRW VLJQLILFDQW S!f $OWKRXJK WZRZD\ LQWHUDFWLRQV EHWZHHQ GLVWDQFH DQG ODQJXDJH DQG GLVWDQFH DQG SULPLQJ ZHUH QRW VLJQLILFDQW )f DQ LQWHUDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ ODQJXDJH DQG SULPLQJ ZDV VLJQLILFDQW )fOf S $ WKUHHZD\ LQWHUDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ GLVWDQFH ODQJXDJH DQG SULPLQJ ZDV QRW VLJQLILFDQW S!f $V SUHGLFWHG WKH ODWHQF\ GDWD ZDV DOVR DIIHFWHG E\ VKRUWHU VWLPXOXV DQG LQWHUVWLPXOXV LQWHUYDOV $V FRPSDUHG WR WKH ODWHQF\ GDWD UHSRUWHG LQ ([SHULPHQWV DQG WKHUH ZDV QR VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH LQ WKH ODWHQFLHV RI PRQROLQJXDO DQG ELOLQJXDO VSHDNHUV ,W PD\ EH DUJXHG WKDW WKH ODWHQF\ HIIHFW FRXOG EH D IXQFWLRQ RI

PAGE 92

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

PAGE 93

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f S DQG )Of UHVSHFWLYHO\f 7KH HIIHFW RI SULPLQJ ZDV RQO\ PDUJLQDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW )Of .f 7ZRZD\ LQWHUDFWLRQV EHWZHHQ GLVWDQFH DQG ODQJXDJH GLVWDQFH DQG SULPLQJ DQG ODQJXDJH DQG SULPLQJ DQG D WKUHHZD\ LQWHUDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ GLVWDQFH ODQJXDJH DQG SULPLQJ ZHUH DOVR VLJQLILFDQW )f S )f S )f S DQG )f S

PAGE 94

UHVSHFWLYHO\f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

PAGE 95

UDWHG 7KH VHQWHQFHV ZHUH UDWHG RQ D VHYHQSRLQW VFDOH DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH GHJUHH RI IDFLOLWDWLRQ WKH\ FRXOG SURYLGH 7KH PD[LPXP YDOXH f ZDV XVHG WR LQGLFDWH PD[LPXP IDFLOLWDWLRQ DQG WKH PLQLPXP YDOXH f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f S 7KH HIIHFWV RI RWKHU YDULDEOHV DQG WKHLU LQWHUDFWLRQV ZHUH QRW VLJQLILFDQW S!f $V ZLWK WKH UHODWHGQHVV MXGJPHQWV WKH ODWHQF\ GDWD RI ELOLQJXDO DQG PRQROLQJXDO VSHDNHUV GHPRQVWUDWHG JUHDWHU FRPSDWLELOLW\ LQ WKH SULPHG FRQGLWLRQ ,Q WKH XQSULPHG FRQGLWLRQ WKH SURFHVVLQJ SDWWHUQV RI ELOLQJXDO DQG PRQROLQJXDO VSHDNHUV ZHUH LQIOXHQFHG E\ GRPLQDQW FRQFHSWXDO VWUXFWXUHV &RQYHUVHO\ LQ

PAGE 96

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

PAGE 97

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

PAGE 98

LQGLYLGXDO OH[LFDO LWHPV HYROYH ZKHQ D OH[LFDO LWHP LV FRQVLVWHQWO\ XVHG LQ GLIIHUHQW FRQWH[WXDO IUDPHV $UHDV LQ &6 DQG &6 WKDW DUH PXWXDOO\ LQFRPSDWLEOH KDYH EHHQ GHPRQVWUDWHG WR EH WKH PDMRU UHDVRQ IRU SURGXFWLRQ GHILFLWV VXFK DV QHJDWLYH WUDQVIHU DQG ORQJHU UHVSRQVH ODWHQFLHV 6LQFH WKH QRWLRQ RI FRQFHSWXDO VWUXFWXUH LV FHQWUDO WR WKH SUREOHPV RI OH[LFDO FRQFHSWXDO DFWLYDWLRQ DQ H[SHULPHQWDO GDWD DQDO\VLV ZLWKRXW D GHWDLOHG DFFRXQW RI WKH ELOLQJXDOVf UHVSRQVH W\SHV LV LQFRPSOHWH $V GHPRQVWUDWHG LQ WKH H[SHULPHQWV UHSRUWHG KHUH D TXDQWLWDWLYH DQDO\VLV RI ODWHQF\ DQG DFFXUDF\ GDWD GR QRW SURYLGH DGHTXDWH HYLGHQFH RI WKH SURFHVVHV WKDW JRYHUQ OH[LFDO DQG FRQFHSWXDO DFFHVV LQ WKH ELOLQJXDO PHPRU\ 7KXV LQ WKH ILUVW UHSOLFDWLRQ RI WKH 6KROO HW DO f VWXG\ VHSDUDWH DQDO\VHV RI WKH RYHUDOO DQG SULPHG UHVSRQVHV LQ WKH WUDQVODWLRQ GDWD SURYLGH GLVFULPLQDWLYH UHVXOWV 6LQFH WKH DQDO\VLV RI WKH SULPHG DFFXUDF\ GLG QRW UHYHDO DQ\ HIIHFWV RI SULPLQJ WKH HIIHFWV UHSRUWHG LQ WKH RYHUDOO GDWD DQDO\VLV FDQ QRW EH LQWHUSUHWHG DV WUDQVIHU IURP SLFWXUH QDPLQJ WR WUDQVODWLRQ 6LPLODUO\ DQ DQDO\VLV RI WKH SULPHG DFFXUDF\ GDWD LQ WKH PRGLILHG UHSOLFDWLRQ RI WKH 6KROO HW DO f VWXG\ GHPRQVWUDWHV WKDW WKH LQKLELWRU\ HIIHFW LQ /OWR / WUDQVODWLRQ IROORZLQJ WKH SUHVHQWDWLRQ RI /, ZRUG SULPHV ZDV QRW D UHVXOW RI WUDQVIHU 7KH FRPELQHG HYLGHQFH IURP WKH WZR H[SHULPHQWV FDQ QRW EH DFFRXQWHG IRU E\ SUHYLRXV PRGHOV 7KLV LQDELOLW\ UHVXOWV IURP WKH IDFW WKDW WKH\ GR QRW FRQVLGHU WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI UHODWLRQDO QHWZRUN RUJDQL]DWLRQ LQ D ELOLQJXDOfV WZR ODQJXDJHV DV FHQWUDO WR WKH LVVXHV RI OH[LFDO DQG FRQFHSWXDO SURFHVVLQJ 6XFK PRGHOV GR QRW SRVVHVV WKH WKHRUHWLFDO FRQVWUXFWV WKDW DFFRXQW IRU XQSULPHG UHVSRQVHV DQG SUHGLFW WKH FRQGLWLRQV RI WKHLU RFFXUUHQFH $FFRUGLQJ WR WKH VWUXFWXUDO DVVXPSWLRQ RIIHUHG LQ WKH SURSRVHG PRGHO RI FRQFHSWXDO VWUXFWXUH PDSSLQJ OH[LFDO LWHPV DUH UHODWHG WR PDQ\ IUDPHV DQG PD\ DFWLYDWH D

PAGE 99

ZKROH QHWZRUN RI VHQVHV ,QDVPXFK DV ELOLQJXDOVf FRQFHSWXDO VWUXFWXUHV H[KLELW GLIIHUHQFHV LQ WKHLU OH[LFDOFRQFHSWXDO RUJDQL]DWLRQV WKHUH LV D SRVVLELOLW\ RI REWDLQLQJ D QXPEHU RI UHVSRQVHV WR D VLQJOH WUDQVODWLRQ VWLPXOXV $V D UHVXOW ELOLQJXDOV PD\ SURYLGH UHVSRQVHV GLIIHUHQW IURP WKH SULPHG RU WDUJHWf OH[LFDO IRUPV &RQGLWLRQV IRU WKH SURGXFWLRQ RI XQSULPHG UHVSRQVHV FDQ EH HODERUDWHG RQ WKH EDVLV RI ERWK WKH VWUXFWXUDO DQG WKH GHYHORSPHQWDO DVVXPSWLRQV 7KH VWUXFWXUDO DVVXPSWLRQ SURYLGHV D IXQFWLRQDO FRQVWUXFW LH D IUDPHf WR GHPRQVWUDWH WKDW WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI D UHODWLRQDO QHWZRUN RUJDQL]DWLRQ LV D UHVXOW RI OH[LFDO LWHPVf XVH LQ FRQWUDVWLYH VRFLRSUDJPDWLF DQG IXQFWLRQDO FRQWH[WV 7KH DFWLYDWLRQ WKUHVKROG RI D SDUWLFXODU VHQVH LQ WKH UHODWLRQDO QHWZRUN RI D OH[LFDO LWHP GHSHQGV RQ f WKH GHJUHH RI D VSHDNHUfV IDPLOLDULW\ ZLWK WKH JLYHQ XVDJH f WKH VWDELOLW\ RI WKH JUDGHG VWUXFWXUH RI WKH JLYHQ OH[LFDO FDWHJRU\ f UHSUHVHQWDWLRQDO GLIIHUHQFHV LQ WKH UHODWLRQDO QHWZRUN RU GLIIHUHQFHV LQ ZHLJKWV DVVLJQHG WR GLIIHUHQW IUDPHV LQ WKH JUDGHG VWUXFWXUH RI WKH OH[LFDO FDWHJRU\ LQ &6 DQG &6 7KH UHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH VSHFLILHG IDFWRUV LV LPSOLFDWLRQDO 7KDW LV LI D VSHDNHU LV QRW IDPLOLDU ZLWK D SDUWLFXODU VHQVH RWKHU IDFWRUV GR QRW DSSO\ DQG LI WKH JUDGHG VWUXFWXUH RI WKH DFTXLUHG OH[LFDO FDWHJRU\ LV KLJKO\ VWDEOH ODQJXDJHVSHFLILF GLIIHUHQFHV PD\ QRW SURGXFH D VLJQLILFDQW HIIHFW )RU H[DPSOH WKH (QJOLVK ZRUG QDLO PD\ EH WUDQVODWHG LQ 5XVVLDQ DV QRJRO f DQG JYR]Gn WR GHQRWH D KRP\ JURZWK DW WKH HQG RI ILQJHUV DQG WRHV DQG D SRLQWHG SLHFH RI PHWDO UHVSHFWLYHO\ ,I 5XVVLDQ(QJOLVK ELOLQJXDOV ZHUH IDPLOLDU ZLWK WKH IRUPHU VHQVH EXW QRW ZLWK WKH ODWHU VHQVH WKH 5XVVLDQ OH[LFDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ JYR]Gn fSRLQWHG SLHFH RI PHWDOff ZRXOG QRW EH DFWLYDWHG DW DOO 6LQFH WKH ODWWHU VHQVH LV QRW DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK KLJKO\ VWDEOH SURWRW\SH HIIHFWV LQ WKH UHODWLRQDO QHWZRUN RI WKH (QJOLVK OH[LFDO LWHP QDLO LH LWV DFWLYDWLRQ GHSHQGV RQ DYDLODELOLW\ RI D UHOHYDQW FRQWH[WXDO IUDPHf LWV DFWLYDWLRQ

PAGE 100

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f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f VWXG\ &RQWUDU\ WR WKH SUHGLFWLRQV WKDW IROORZ IURP WKLV PRGHO WKHUH ZDV QR VLJQLILFDQW IDFLOLWDWLRQ RI UHVSRQVHV WR WKH VWLPXOL

PAGE 101

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f fSRLQWHG SLHFH RI PHWDOf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f DQG LQ / DV

PAGE 102

WKH WDUJHW ODQJXDJHf RQ WUDQVODWLRQ WLPHV LQ WKH /OWR/ GLUHFWLRQ UHSRUWHG LQ WKH 6KROO HW DO f VWXG\ 6XFK DQ HIIHFW ZDV QRW REWDLQHG LQ WKH RSSRVLWH GLUHFWLRQ IURP / WR /,f EHFDXVH WKH UHODWLRQDO QHWZRUNV RI WKH VWLPXOXV ODQJXDJH /f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f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

PAGE 103

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

PAGE 104

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

PAGE 105

&+$37(5 ,03/,&$7,216 )25 5(6($5&+ ,1 %,/,1*8$/,60 7KH SURSRVHG PRGHO RI FRQFHSWXDO VWUXFWXUH PDSSLQJ KDV LPSRUWDQW LPSOLFDWLRQV IRU UHVHDUFK LQ ELOLQJXDO PHPRU\ RUJDQL]DWLRQ DQG ODQJXDJH DFTXLVLWLRQ (DUOLHU KLHUDUFKLFDO PRGHOV HPSOR\ GLIIHUHQW RUJDQL]DWLRQDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQV ZRUG DVVRFLDWLRQ YV FRQFHSW PHGLDWLRQf DQG DV\PPHWULFDO ELGLUHFWLRQDO FRQQHFWLRQV EHWZHHQ OH[LFDO DQG FRQFHSWXDO VWRUHV WKH UHYLVHG KLHUDUFKLFDO PRGHOf 7KHVH UHSUHVHQWDWLRQV ZHUH LQWHQGHG WR DFFRXQW IRU ODQJXDJHVSHFLILF DQG ODQJXDJH LQGHSHQGHQW SDWWHUQV RI ELOLQJXDO SHUIRUPDQFH 7KH SUHVHQW PRGHO LQWURGXFHV WKH QRWLRQ RI FRQFHSWXDO VWUXFWXUH &6f RUJDQL]HG LQ DQ HODERUDWHG UHODWLRQDO QHWZRUN &6 FDSWXUHV WKH LQWULFDWH UHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ OH[LFDO DQG FRQFHSWXDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQV 7KH VWUXFWXUDO DQG GHYHORSPHQWDO DVVXPSWLRQV RI WKH PRGHO SURYLGH D PHDQV RI DFFRPPRGDWLQJ ERWK ODQJXDJHVSHFLILF DQG ODQJXDJH LQGHSHQGHQW ELOLQJXDO GDWD :KLOH WKH QRWLRQ RI FRQFHSWXDO VWUXFWXUH FDSWXUHV ODQJXDJH VSHFLILF OH[LFDOFRQFHSWXDO RUJDQL]DWLRQ WKH PDSSLQJ PHWDSKRU RIIHUV D PHDQV RI H[SODLQLQJ KRZ FRPSDWLEOH FRQFHSWXDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQV LQWHUDFW LQ WKH FRQFHSWXDO VWUXFWXUHV RI D ELOLQJXDOVf WZR ODQJXDJHV $FFRUGLQJ WR WKH SUHVHQW PRGHO FRQFHSWXDO VWUXFWXUH IRUPDWLRQ LV FORVHO\ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH SURFHVVHV LQKHUHQW WR ODQJXDJH OHDUQLQJ DQG JHQHUDO FRQFHSWXDO GHYHORSPHQW 6LPXOWDQHRXV FRQFHSWXDO DQG ODQJXDJH GHYHORSPHQW LQ HDUO\ ELOLQJXDOV SURYLGHV D KLJKHU DFWLYDWLRQ WKUHVKROG IRU WKH FRQFHSWXDO VWUXFWXUH ZKLFK LV PRVW FORVHO\

PAGE 106

DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH FRQFHSW DFTXLVLWLRQ HSLVRGH &RQYHUVHO\ ODWH ELOLQJXDOV ZKRVH FRQFHSWXDO GHYHORSPHQW LV SULPDULO\ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK /, FRQFHSWXDO VWUXFWXUH GHPRQVWUDWH KLJKHU DFWLYDWLRQ WKUHVKROG IRU /, UHODWLRQDO RUJDQL]DWLRQ HYHQ LQ WKH WDVNV WKDW UHTXLUH RQO\ / DFFHVV UHODWLRQ DVVHVVPHQW H[SHULPHQWV LQ &KDSWHU f 7KH ILQGLQJV UHSRUWHG LQ WKH VHFRQG ODQJXDJH DFTXLVLWLRQ OLWHUDWXUH VXJJHVW WKDW WKH SDUDOOHO DFTXLVLWLRQ RI ODQJXDJHV E\ FKLOGUHQ LQ GLIIHUHQW VRFLR OLQJXLVWLF VLWXDWLRQV PD\ OHDG WR JUHDWHU VHSDUDWLRQ EHWZHHQ /, DQG / OH[LFRQV &RPHDX *HQHVHH 1LFRODGLV t 9UDNDV f
PAGE 107

SV\FKROLQJXLVWLF DSSURDFKHV WR WKH SUREOHP GR QRW FRQVLGHU GLIIHUHQFHV LQ / DQG / OH[LFDOFRQFHSWXDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQV DV D EDVLV IRU WKH SURSRVHG DFFRXQWV *URVMHDQ f DQG DUH OLPLWHG WR GHVFULSWLRQV RI SDWKRORJLFDO GDWD *UHHQ 3HUHFPDQ +\OWHQVWDP f 3UHYLRXV PRGHOV RI WKH ELOLQJXDO OH[LFRQ GR QRW VXIILFLHQWO\ DGGUHVV WKH SUREOHP RI WUDQVIHU LQ ELOLQJXDO SURGXFWLRQ 7KH SRVVLELOLW\ RI WUDQVIHU ERWK SRVLWLYH DQG QHJDWLYHf EHWZHHQ WKH UHSUHVHQWDWLRQDO V\VWHPV RI ELOLQJXDOVf WZR ODQJXDJHV KDV EHHQ VXJJHVWHG LQ WKH VWXGLHV GHDOLQJ ZLWK FRJQDWH SULPLQJ SDWWHUQV GH *URRW t 1DV GH *URRW f 7KH LVVXHV RI WUDQVIHU KDYH EHHQ PRUH FORVHO\ H[DPLQHG ZLWKLQ WKH IUDPHZRUN RI WKH &RPSHWLWLRQ 0RGHO 0F:KLQQH\ t %DWHV /L %DWHV t 0F:KLQQH\ f $FFRUGLQJ WR WKH &RPSHWLWLRQ 0RGHO WUDQVIHU LV YLHZHG DV D PDMRU VRXUFH RI WKH YDULRXV V\QWDFWLF SURFHVVLQJ VWUDWHJLHV DSSOLHG E\ ELOLQJXDOV +RZHYHU WKH FRQGLWLRQV WKDW WULJJHU WUDQVIHU KDYH QRW EHHQ FOHDUO\ VWDWHG SRVVLEO\ EHFDXVH RI WKH ODFN RI FRQFHSWXDO FRQVWUXFWV RQ ZKLFK WKH\ VKRXOG RSHUDWH 7KH SUHVHQW PRGHO RI FRQFHSWXDO VWUXFWXUH PDSSLQJ RIIHUV D ZD\ WR DFFRXQW IRU WUDQVIHU LQ ELOLQJXDO SURGXFWLRQ 7UDQVIHU LV EHVW FRQFHSWXDOL]HG DV D VWUDLJKWIRUZDUG PDSSLQJ RI ELOLQJXDOVf FRQFHSWXDO VWUXFWXUHV 7KH FRPSDWLEOH DUHDV ZLWKLQ FRQFHSWXDO VWUXFWXUHV DUH FKDUDFWHUL]HG E\ SRVLWLYH WUDQVIHU 6XFK DUHDV DUH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH GRPDLQV RI JUHDWHU SHUFHSWXDO VDOLHQFH HJ FRQFUHWH REMHFWVf &RQYHUVHO\ LQFRPSDWLEOH DUHDV VXFK DV H[WHQVLRQV DQG PHWDSKRUVf DUH FKDUDFWHUL]HG E\ QHJDWLYH WUDQVIHU 7KH NQRZOHGJH DERXW LQFRPSDWLEOH H[WHQVLRQV PD\ QRW \HW EH DYDLODEOH WR D QRYLFH ELOLQJXDO ZKR LV JHQHUDOO\ LQFOLQHG WR DSSO\ /, H[WHQVLRQV WR / OH[LFDO LWHPV 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG D ZHOOGHYHORSHG DQG KLJKO\ DFFHVVLEOH / FRQFHSWXDO VWUXFWXUH FDQ WULJJHU WUDQVIHU LQ WKH RSSRVLWH GLUHFWLRQ IURP / WR /,

PAGE 108

7KH PDSSLQJ PHWDSKRU DOVR RIIHUV DQ H[SODQDWLRQ IRU WKH KLJK DFWLYDWLRQ WKUHVKROG RI ERWK FRQFHSWXDO VWUXFWXUHV HYHQ ZKHQ WKH WDVN LV OLPLWHG WR RQHODQJXDJH VWLPXOL $OWKRXJK WKH H[SHULPHQWDO VWLPXOL DQG WKH LQVWUXFWLRQV ZHUH DOO LQ (QJOLVK H[SHULPHQWV DQG LQ &KDSWHU f WKH KLJKO\ IOXHQW 5XVVLDQ(QJOLVK DQG 6SDQLVK(QJOLVK ELOLQJXDOV WHVWHG KDYH SURYLGHG HYLGHQFH RI WKH LQIOXHQFH RI /, OH[LFDOFRQFHSWXDO RUJDQL]DWLRQ RQ WKHLU MXGJPHQWV DERXW UHODWHGQHVV RI (QJOLVK ZRUGV 7KLV H[SDQGV RQ SUHYLRXV ILQGLQJV UHSRUWHG E\ 5DQVGHOO DQG )LVFKOHU f WKDW ELOLQJXDOV WHQG WR DFFHVV UHSUHVHQWDWLRQV LQ RWKHU ODQJXDJHV HYHQ ZKHQ H[SHULPHQWDO WDVNV GR QRW UHTXLUH WKHP WR GR VR

PAGE 109

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

PAGE 110

$33(1',; (;3(5,0(17$/ 67,08/, $1' &21',7,216 2) 7+(,5 35(6(17$7,21 7DEOH $O 'LVWULEXWLRQ RI H[SHULPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQV LQ IRXU VHWV RI VWLPXOL 0RGLILHG UHSOLFDWLRQ RI WKH 6KROO HW DO f H[SHULPHQW ([SHULPHQWDO WDVNV 6HW 6HW 6HW 6HW (QHOLVK 5XVVLDQ 6WXG\ 7HVW 6WXG\ 7HVW 6WXG\ 7HVW 6WXG\ 7HVW DLUSODQH FDXRQH7 /, (!5 / 5!( 1 (!5 3 5!( DQFKRU + R S E / 5!( 1 (!5 3 (!5 /, 5!( DQW X\SD%H 3 5!( /, (!5 / (!5 1 5!( DSSOH +•-,2.2 /, 5!( / 5!( 1 (!5 3 5!( DUP S\LFD / 5!( 1 (!5 3 (!5 /, 5!( DUURZ &7SH-LD / (!5 1 5!( 3 5!( /, (!5 DVKWUD\ QHQHMLE++LMD /, (!5 / (!5 1 5!( 3 (!5 D[ 7RQRS / 5!( 1 (!5 3 (!5 /, 5!( EDOO 0+8 /, 5!( / 5!( 1 (!5 3 5!( EDOORRQ PDS+. 3 (!5 /, 5!( / 5!( 1 (!5 EDP DXDS 1 (!5 3 5!( /, (!5 / (!5 EDUUHO RX.D / 5!( 1 (!5 3 (!5 /, 5!( EDVNHW .2S6++D 3 (!5 /, 5!( / 5!( 1 (!5 EHG N S 2 % D 7 E /, (!5 / (!5 1 5!( 3 (!5 EHH QXHMLD / (!5 1 5!( 3 5!( /, (!5 EHHWOH P\ N /, (!5 / (!5 1 5!( 3 (!5 EHOO .2-,2;2-,E8+. 3 5!( /, (!5 / (!5 1 5!( EHOW SH0H+E 3 5!( /, (!5 / (!5 1 5!( ELF\FOH %HMLRF+QHIO /, 5!( / 5!( 1 (!5 3 5!( ELUG Q W K OM D 1 5!( 3 (!5 /, 5!( / 5!( ERRN .++UD /, (!5 / (!5 1 5!( 3 (!5 ERRW FDQRU / 5!( 1 (!5 3 (!5 /, 5!( ERWWOH \78-L.D /, 5!( / 5!( 1 (!5 3 5!( ERZ D+7 /, (!5 / (!5 1 5!( 3 (!5 ERZO 0 + F N D 1 5!( 3 (!5 /, 5!( / 5!( ER[ [RSR[D / (!5 1 5!( 3 5!( /, (!5 EUHDG [MLH /, 5!( / 5!( 1 (!5 3 5!( EURRP 0H W -LD /, (!5 / (!5 1 5!( 3 (!5

PAGE 111

7DEOH $O &RQWLQXHGf ([SHULPHQWDO WDVNV 6HW 6HW 6HW 6HW 6t9 (QJOLVK 5XVVLDQ 6WXG\ 7HVW 6WXG\ 7HVW 6WXG\ 7HVW 6WXG\ 7HVW EUXVK QH7 [D / (!5 1 5!( 3 5!( /, (!5 EXV D%7R\F /, 5!( / 5!( 1 (!5 3 5!( EXWWHUIO\ DRX[D 1 (!5 3 5!( /, (!5 / (!5 EXWWRQ Q\UR%+LMD 3 5!( /, (!5 / (!5 1 5!( FDNH 72S7 /, (!5 / (!5 1 5!( 3 (!5 FDPHO %HS•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•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

PAGE 112

7DEOH $O &RQWLQXHGf ([SHULPHQWDO WDVNV 6HW 6HW 6HW 6HW 6t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r [D 3 5!( /, (!5 / (!5 1 5!( PRQNH\ RH EIO+D 1 (!5 3 5!( /, (!5 / (!5 PRRQ 0H &+ / 5!( 1 (!5 3 (!5 /, 5!( QDLO 7%IOE 3 (!5 /, 5!( / 5!( 1 (!5 QHFNODFH \FX 1 5!( 3 (!5 /, 5!( / 5!( QXW U DL [D 3 (!5 /, 5!( / 5!( 1 (!5 RVWULFK &7SD\F 1 5!( 3 (!5 /, 5!( / 5!( RZO -++ 3 5!( /, (!5 / (!5 1 5!( SDLQWEUXVK .+&7E 3 5!( /, (!5 / (!5 1 5!( SDQWV S .f + 1 (!5 3 5!( /, (!5 / (!5 SHDFK QHSF+. 1 5!( 3 (!5 /, 5!( / 5!( SHDFRFN QD EMLKK / 5!( 1 (!5 3 (!5 /, 5!(

PAGE 113

7DEOH $ &RQWLQXHGf ([SHULPHQWDO WDVNV 6HW 6HW 6HW 6HW 6t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0 1 5!( 3 (!5 /, 5!( / 5!( VFUHZ %++7 / 5!( 1 (!5 3 (!5 /, 5!( VFUHZGULYHU 27 E H S 7 N D 3 (!5 /, 5!( / 5!( 1 (!5 VHDO 7,2-,6+E /, (!5 / (!5 1 5!( 3 (!5 VKHHS R %TD / 5!( 1 (!5 3 (!5 /, 5!( VKLUW S\DL[D 1 5!( 3 (!5 /, 5!( / 5!( VKRH RWKKRN /, 5!( / 5!( 1 (!5 3 5!( VNLUW [D / 5!( 1 (!5 3 (!5 /, 5!( VNXQN F N \ + F /, (!5 / (!5 1 5!( 3 (!5 VOHG F D + + 1 5!( 3 (!5 /, 5!( / 5!( VQDLO \ML+7 .D / (!5 1 5!( 3 5!( /, (!5 VQDNH 0Hm / 5!( 1 (!5 3 (!5 /, 5!( VQRZPDQ &+HU2%+. /, (!5 / (!5 1 5!( 3 (!5 VSLGHU QD\ N /, 5!( / 5!( 1 (!5 3 5!( VSRRO .D7\L'.D 3 5!( /, (!5 / (!5 1 5!( VSRRQ -O2-..D 1 (!5 3 5!( /, (!5 / (!5 VTXLUUHO HML.D 3 5!( /, (!5 / (!5 1 5!( VWDU %H IOD /, (!5 / (!5 1 5!( 3 (!5 VWRRO 7D\SH7 /, (!5 / (!5 1 5!( 3 (!5 VWRYH Q MLK W D 3 5!( /, (!5 / (!5 1 5!(

PAGE 114

7DEOH $ &RQWLQXHGf ([SHULPHQWDO WDVNV 6HW 6HW 6HW 6HW 6t9 (QJOLVK 5XVVLDQ 6WXG\ 7HVW 6WXG\ 7HVW 6WXG\ 7HVW 6WXG\ 7HVW VWUDZEHUU\ .-L\•++ .D 3 (!5 /, 5!( / 5!( 1 (!5 VXLWFDVH XH02IOD+ / 5!( 1 (!5 3 (!5 /, 5!( VXQ FRML+LMH /, 5!( / 5!( 1 (!5 3 5!( VZDQ -LHHIOE 1 (!5 3 5!( /, (!5 / (!5 VZLQJ [DQHQQ 3 (!5 /, 5!( / 5!( 1 (!5 WDEOH &72-O /, (!5 / (!5 1 5!( 3 (!5 WKLPEOH +DQHSF72. 3 (!5 /, 5!( / 5!( 1 (!5 WKXPE QDMLHX 1 (!5 3 5!( /, (!5 / (!5 WLH UDMLG\ N 1 5!( 3 (!5 /, 5!( / 5!( ILQJHU QDQHX / 5!( 1 (!5 3 (!5 /, 5!( WRPDWR Q20+IO2S 1 (!5 3 5!( /, (!5 / (!5 WRS %2-82. / (!5 1 5!( 3 5!( /, (!5 WUDLQ QRHIO 3 (!5 /, 5!( / 5!( 1 (!5 WXUWOH XHSHQD[D 3 5!( /, (!5 / (!5 1 5!( YHVW -.+-LH 7 1 5!( 3 (!5 /, 5!( / 5!( ZDJRQ 7H MLH..D 3 (!5 /, 5!( / 5!( 1 (!5 ZDWFK OLDFX 3 (!5 /, 5!( / 5!( 1 (!5 ZDWHUPHORQ DS \ 1 5!( 3 (!5 /, 5!( / 5!( ZKHHO .R[LHFR 1 (!5 3 5!( /, (!5 / (!5 ZKLVWOH &%+&72; 3 5!( /, (!5 / (!5 1 5!( 1RWH 3 SLFWXUH SULPH /, ILUVW ODQJXDJH 5XVVLDQf ZRUG SULPH / VHFRQG ODQJXDJH (QJOLVKf ZRUG SULPH 1 QHZ XQSULPHGf ZRUG VWLPXOL 5!( WUDQVODWLRQ IURP 5XVVLDQ IURP (QJOLVK (!5 WUDQVODWLRQ IURP (QJOLVK WR 5XVVLDQ 6t9 D QXPEHU XQGHU ZKLFK ZRUGV DSSHDU LQ WKH 6QRGJUDVV DQG 9DQGHUZDUW f VWDQGDUGL]HG VHW RI SLFWXUH DQG ZRUG QRUPV

PAGE 115

7DEOH $ $ OLVW RI ILOOHU VWLPXOL XVHG LQ SLFWXUH VRUWLQJ DQG OH[LFDO GHFLVLRQ WDVNV 6t9 3LFWXUH 'ULPHV :RUG 'ULPHV (QJOLVK 5XVVLDQ (QJOLVK QRQZRUGV 5XVVLDQ QRQZRUGV EHDU 0HIO%HIOE WR[IWHU F H MLE FDQQRQ Q\QQFD KVHD Qm ML0LQ.DLM FRP .\.\S\D GHVWE XDTHT FXS YDQQFD IHQVGH %.-,72&+ IUHQFK KRUQ %D -L7RS+D SLDWWQR %+67+72S IU\LQJ SDQ &.2%2S2IOD EURDU P\S\ KHOLFRSWHU %HS72-LHL JLWU 7 K U 0 PRXVH 0 +, K! IGRUJW DMXLQRS SHSSHU QHSHT NULWH QQUX%H-LW XPEUHOOD 2+7 LJKWO QSHD 1RWH 6t9 D QXPEHU XQGHU ZKLFK ZRUGV DSSHDU LQ WKH 6QRGJUDVV DQG 9DQGHUZDUW f VWDQGDUGL]HG VHW RI SLFWXUH DQG ZRUG QRUPV 7DEOH $ 8QSULPHG WUDQVODWLRQV SURGXFHG IRU SULPHG VWLPXOL 0RGLILHG UHSOLFDWLRQ RI WKH 6KROO HW DO f VWXG\ 3ULPH 7UDQVODWLRQ IURP /, WR / 3LFWXUH /, VWLPXOXV / UHV'RQVH ODGGHU OHVWQLFD ODGGHU VWDLUFDVHf VWDLUFDVH PRQNH\ REH]LDQD PRQNH\ DSHf DSH FORFN FKDV\ FORFN ZDWFKf ZDWFK ORFN ]DPRN IORFN FDVWOHO FDVWOH / ZRUG /, VWLPXOXV / UHV'RQVH DUP UXND DUP KDQGf KDQG GHHU ROHQ f GHHU HONf HON OHWWXFH VDODW OHWWXFH VDODGf VDODG IRRW QRJD IRRW OHJf OHJ OHDI OLVW OHDI VKHHWf VKHHW EDOORRQ VKDU EDOORRQ EDOOf EDOO ZDJRQ WHOH]KND FDUW ZDJRQf FDUW NHWWOH FKDLUWLN INHWWOH WHDSRW WHDSRW

PAGE 116

7DEOH $ &RQWLQXHGf 3ULPH 7UDQVODWLRQ IURP / WR /, 3LFWXUH / VWLPXOXV /, UHVSRQVH QXW IDVWHQHUf QXW RUH[ QXW NHUQHOf QDLO SRLQWHG SHLFH RI PHWDOf QDLO QRJRGf ILQJHUQDLOf VDZ D WRROf VDZ ?LGHO SDVW WHQVH RI fWR VHHff UXOHU WD WRRO UXOHU YODVWHOLQ VRYHUHLJQ /, ZRUG / VWLPXOXV /, UHV'RQVH WXOHQn VHDO DQLPDOf VHDO SHFKDW f VWDPS VWLFNHUf XW nXJ DQ LURQf LURQ ]KHOH]R LURQ VXEVWDQFHf NRORNRO nFKLN D EHOOL EHOO ]YRQLWn &WR FKLPH WR WROO 1RWH /, ILUVW ODQJXDJH 5XVVLDQf / VHFRQG ODQJXDJH (QJOLVKf 7DEOH $ 'LVWULEXWLRQ RI H[SHULPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQV LQ IRXU VHWV RI VWLPXOL 5HSOLFDWLRQ RI WKH 6KROO HW DO f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

PAGE 117

,OO 7DEOH $ &RQWLQXHGf 7UDQVODWLRQ WDVNV )URP / WR /, )URP /, WR / (QJOLVK /f 5XVVLDQ /LW 6HW 6HW 6HW 6HW VWUDZEHUU\ .-L\•++LFD 1HZ / 1HZ /, ZDWFK \D FX /, 1HZ 1HZ / VFLVVRUV +2-.++T8 / 1HZ /, 1HZ OHDI -+&7 1HZ /, / 1HZ GUHVVHU .202IO 1HZ / 1HZ /, FDNH 72S7 1HZ 1HZ 1HZ / EHG .S2%D7E /, 1HZ 1HZ 1HZ DQW 0\SD%HIL / 1HZ /, 1HZ FDUURW 02S.2%E 1HZ /, / 1HZ KDPPHU 02-,272. 1HZ / 1HZ /, SLSH 7S\•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•27++2. /, 1HZ 1HZ / WKXPE QDMLHT / 1HZ /, 1HZ SRW .D&7SL2-,% 1HZ /, / 1HZ KHOLFRSWHU %HS72;,IL7 1HZ / 1HZ /, FKXUFK THS NR E E /, 1HZ 1HZ / EDOORRQ PDS+. / 1HZ /, 1HZ FRXFK IO+ % D + 1HZ /, / 1HZ

PAGE 118

7DEOH $ &RQWLQXHGf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f VWLPXOL 7DEOH $ )LOOHU VWLPXOL XVHG LQ D SLFWXUH QDPLQJ WDVN 5HSOLFDWLRQ RI WKH 6KROO HW DO f H[SHULPHQW 3LFWXUHV QDPHG LQ (QJOLVK 3LFWXUHV QDPHG LQ 5XVVLDQ (QJOLVK 5XVVLDQ (QJOLVK 5XVVLDQ GUHVV Q -LD W E H VWDU %H TD KRUVH QRPDIOE UXOHU ML K K H K N D VSRRQ MLRMLF[D FKHUU\ %+IIO++ EXV D%7R\F GRJ FRD[D XPEUHOOD 2+7 PXVKURRP US[ VKLUW S\DP[D FKDLQ XHQRX[D FXS ZDUQ [D ELF\FOH %HQRF+QHIO FURZQ .RSR+D 3LJ &%++EIO IHQFH D RS D[ 7RQRS DSSOH KMLRNR ZDJRQ 7HMLHL..D

PAGE 119

7DEOH $ 8QSULPHG WUDQVODWLRQV SURGXFHG IRU SUHYLRXVO\ QDPHG FRQFHSWV 5HSOLFDWLRQ RI WKH 6KROO HW DO f VWXG\ 3LFWXUH 3LFWXUH 1DPH 7UDQVODWLRQ 6WLPXOXV 7UDQVODWLRQ 5HV'RQVH ,Q / ,Q /, ,Q / EDOORRQ EDOORRQ VKDQN EDOORRQ EDOOf EDOO PRRQ PRRQ PHV fDF PRRQ PRQWKf PRQWK DUP DUP UXND DUP KDQGf KDQG SDLQWEUXVK SDLQWEUXVK NLVW f SDLQWEUXVK KDQGf KDQG IRRW IRRW QRJD IRRW OHJf OHJ OHDI OHDI OLVW OHDI VKHHWf VKHHW ODGGHU ODGGHU OHVWQLFD ODGGHU VWDLUFDVHf VWDLUFDVH ORFN ORFN ]DPRN IORFN FDVWOHf FDVWOH ,Q /, ,Q / ,Q /, VWRRO WDEXUHW D VWRROf VWRRO VWXO D FKDLUf ULQJ NRO nFR D ULQJf ULQJ ]YRQLOn WR ULQJf VDZ SLOD D VDZf VDZ YLGHO SDVW WHQVH RI fWR VHHff LURQ XW fXJ DQ LURQf LURQ ]KHOH]R LURQ VXEVWDQFHf ZKHHO NROHFR D ZKHHOf ZKHHO UXO f D ZKHHO RI D FDUf SOXJ VKWHSVHO f D SOXJf SOXJ ]DO\FKND D VWRSSHUf QDLO HYR]Gf ID QDLOnf QDLO QRHRGn D ILQDHUQDLOf 1RWH /, ILUVW ODQJXDJH 5XVVLDQf / VHFRQG ODQJXDJH (QJOLVKf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

PAGE 120

7DEOH $ &RQWLQXHGf :RUG SDLUV 3ULPLQJ VHQWHQFHV 6WLPXOXV VHW PRRQ EDVNHW $ IXOO PRRQ OLJKWHG WKH WHUUDLQ OLNH FDQGOHOLJKW ILUP REVWLQDWH 7KH 81 VHFUHWDU\JHQHUDOnV OHWWHU FRQILUPHG KLV LQWHQVH LQWHUHVW FRQFHUQ DQG KLV ILUP GHFLVLRQ WR FRQWULEXWH WR D &\SUXV VROXWLRQ IRUWXQH ZHDOWK ,Q VRPH RI WKH SRRUHU QHLJKERUKRRGV VKRSNHHSHUV PDGH VPDOO IRUWXQHV E\ FKDUJLQJ GRXEOH WKH SKRQH FRPSDQ\nV UDWHV IRU ORFDO FDOOV PDGH IURP WKHLU VKRSV GDWH UHQGH]YRXV 9LFWLP DGYRFDWHV VD\ WHHQDJHUV DUH DW D JUHDWHU ULVN WKDQ DGXOWV IRU GDWH YLROHQFH EHFDXVH WKH\ DUH LQH[SHULHQFHG DW GDWLQJ DQG PD\ DVVXPH WKDW WKHLU UHODWLRQVKLS HYHQ LI DEXVLYH LV WKH ZD\ GDWLQJ LV VXSSRVHG WR EH PDVWHU H[SHUW 7KH ILUVW UXOH RI VXFFHVVIXO DUW IRUJHU\ DFFRUGLQJ WR RQH RI WKH ZRUOGnV JUHDWHVW H[SRQHQWV RI WKH FUDIW LV QHYHU WR FRS\ WKH ROG PDVWHUV EUXVK WRXFK VXSSRVH ZH EHFDPH WRR DFFXVWRPHG WR SOD\HUVf IORSSLQJ EDFNZDUG DW WKH VOLJKWHVW EUXVK DV WKRXJK WKH\ KDG MXVW EHHQ VWUXFN E\ DQ $PWUDN ORFRPRWLYH EORFN QHLJKERUKRRG :KHQ JDUEDJH SLOHG XS RQ WKH EORFN EHFDXVH FLW\ WUXFNV KDGQnW FRPH DURXQG IRU GD\V WKH UHVLGHQWV KDXOHG WKH WUDVK WR WKH GXPS WKHPVHOYHV UXLQ GHEULV $ WHDP OHG E\ D SURIHVVRU RI JHRORJ\ DW +RNNDLGR 8QLYHUVLW\ ZLOO H[FDYDWH UXLQV GDWLQJ IURP EHIRUH WKH -RPRQ SHULRG EUHDN SDXVH ,Q GXDOLQFRPH IDPLOLHV SDUWQHUVn MREV EXIIHU HDFK RWKHU DJDLQVW OD\RIIV FDUULHU FKDQJHV DQG EUHDNV VSULQJ HPHUJH $OWKRXJK WKH EDQ LV VWLOO RQ JDPEOLQJ RSHUDWLRQV DUH VSULQJLQJ XS DOO RYHU &KLQD LQ VRPH FDVHV ZLWK WKH KHOS RI JRYHUQPHQW RIILFLDOV WKHPVHOYHV VDOW GRXEW 5HDOWRUV ZDUQ QHZKRPH EX\HUV WR IROORZ nKRPH DIIRUGDELOLW\n FKDUWV ZLWK D JUDLQ RI VDOW )RU WKH PRVW SDUW WKH FKDUWV OLVW PRQWKO\ SD\PHQWV EXW RQO\ LQFOXGH SULQFLSDO DQG LQWHUHVW

PAGE 121

7DEOH $ &RQWLQXHGf :RUG SDLUV 3ULPLQJ VHQWHQFHV 6WLPXOXV VHW FDW WLUH 3ROLFH IRXQG PLVWUHDWHG FDWV DQG VHYHUDO DQLPDO FDUFDVVHV LQ WKH KRPH RI D PDQ ZKR RQFH UDQ D ORFDO DQLPDO ULJKWV JURXS DQG KDV UHSHDWHGO\ UXQ IRU HOHFWHG RIILFH DJHQW SROLFH 9DOHQFLDnV DUUHVW ZDV WKH UHVXOW RI RQH \HDUnV ZRUN E\ WKH )HGHUDO 3ROLFH ZLWK WKH KHOS RI )%, DJHQWV IDQ YHQWLODWH 2Q WLQ\ SULYDWH LVODQGV RZQHG E\ FUXLVH OLQHV D]XUH ZDWHUV ODS WKH ZKLWH VDQGV DQG D ZDUP WURSLFDO EUHH]H IDQV WKH SDOP WUHHV SOXJ SURPRWLRQ $OWKRXJK UHJXODWLRQV OLPLW SURGXFW SOXJV RQ 79 VKRZV H[FHSWLRQV KDYH VWDUWHG WR FUHHS LQ PRVW SURPLQHQWO\ RQ 1%&nV n6HLQIHOGn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nW LQ WKH ULQJ LW LV EHWZHHQ PHGLD PRJXOV ZKR DLU ZUHVWOLQJ PDWFKHV WUDLQ WHDFK :KHQ UHWLUHG 86 ER[HU (GGLH 7RZQVHQG ZDV LQYLWHG WR WUDLQ \RXQJ DVSLULQJ ER[HUV LQ -DSDQ LQ KH FRQVLGHUHG LW PHUHO\ D RQH\HDU VWLQW

PAGE 122

7DEOH $ &RQWLQXHGf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nW EH XVHG E\ KHDOWK\ SHRSOH WR ZDUG RII FDQFHU PRWLYDWLRQ GULYH 7KH 5HSXEOLFDQV RQ WKH HYH RI WKH ILUVW 6RXWKHUQ SULPDU\ ZHUH XQLWHG RQ RQH WKLQJ WKHLU GULYH WR ZLQ IDYRU ZLWK UHOLJLRXV FRQVHUYDWLYHV D SDUWLFXODUO\ SRWHQW YRWLQJ EORF LQ 6RXWK &DUROLQD FRRN VDZ )UHVK IHWWXFFLQH FRRNV LQ PLQXWHV DV DJDLQVW WR PLQXWHV IRU WKH GULHG YDULHW\ MDP FUXVK &RXQW\ FRPPLVVLRQHUV GHFODUHG D GLVDVWHU DV LFH MDPV SXVKHG WKH
PAGE 123

7DEOH $ &RQWLQXHGf :RUG SDLUV 3ULPLQJ VHQWHQFHV 6WLPXOXV VHW DUPRU FRYHU 2ORI 3DOPH WKH ODWH SULPH PLQLVWHU RI 6ZHGHQ ZDV VKRW \HDUV DJR LQ WKH EDFN DW SRLQW EODQN UDQJH ZLWK D JXQ FRQWDLQLQJ DUPRUn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nV SDWK WR (08 PHPEHUVKLS MXLFH VRFN ,Q RQH RI WKH EHVW NQRZQ FDVHV LQ WKH V %HHFK 1XW ZDV GLVFRYHUHG WR EH VHOOLQJ DSSOH MXLFH DGXOWHUDWHG ZLWK VXJDU DQG ZDWHU DQG RQH RI LWnV WRS H[HFXWLYHV ZDV VHQW WR MDLO GLJ H[FDYDWH
PAGE 124

7DEOH $ &RQWLQXHGf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nV IOLUWLQJ ZLWK WKH LGHD RI VHOOLQJ EDWWOHILHOG WDQN SDUWV WR 6\ULD FDQ XSVHW WKH IUDJLOH 0LGGOH (DVW SHDFH SURFHVV OHDS IORDW $VWURQDXWV +DUEDXJK DQG 7DQQHU SODQQHG WR IORDW RXW RI WKH VKXWWOHnV FDUJR ED\ DLUORFN VKRUWO\ EHIRUH PLGQLJKW WR LQVWDOO D QHZ GDWD UHFRUGHU ERDW VKLS %RDW PDNHUV DQG VHOOHUV DUH SLQQLQJ WKHLU IRUWXQHV WKLV \HDU RQ WKH OXUH RI UDGLFDO QHZ KXOO GHVLJQV DQG VXSHUIDVW HQJLQHV

PAGE 125

7DEOH $ &RQWLQXHGf :RUG SDLUV 3ULPLQJ VHQWHQFHV 6WLPXOXV VHW VROLG FRPSDFW ,I WKH GUDLQ LVQn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

PAGE 126

7DEOH $ &RQWLQXHGf :RUG SDLUV 3ULPLQJ VHQWHQFHV 6WLPXOXV VHW DODUP IDVKLRQ 2Q VHYHUDO RFFDVLRQV D VRXUFH VDLG SDWURO KHDGTXDUWHUV WULHG WR GLVSDWFK WKH RIILFHU WR D EXLOGLQJ ZKHUH D EXUJODU DODUP KDG JRQH RII WRZHU GRPLQDWH 'HOSKL LV WZLFH DV ELJ DV LWV QHDUHVW ULYDO -DSDQnV 'HQVR JURXS DQG WRZHUV RYHU RWKHU FRPSHWLWRUV VZHOO H[SDQG &KLQDf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nV FLWUXV EHOW PRXVH IUDPH 7KH VTXDUH ZRRGHQ IUDPHV DURXQG WKH DUFKLQJ VWDLQHGJODVV ZLQGRZV VKRZHG ZKHUH WKH FKXUFKnV RULJLQDO ZLQGRZV KDG EHHQ VKRXOGHU HGJH 7KH VDIHVW ZD\ WR KDQGOH EHLQJ VWUDQGHG RQ WKH URDG VKRXOGHU LV WR UHPDLQ FDOP ORDQ ZHW 8QWLO QRZ WKH FUHGLWRUV GRXEWHG WKDW JLYHQ WKH ORZ SHWURO SULFHV WKH ORDQV ZLOO EH UHSDLG WDEOH FRXQWHU 5RRVWHUV KHQV DQG LWW\ELWW\ FKLFNV KDYH WKH UXQ RI WKH \DUG HDWLQJ FUXPEV XQGHU WKH WDEOHV DQG VRPHWLPHV UXQQLQJ RYHU GLQHUVn IHHW

PAGE 127

7DEOH $ &RQWLQXHGf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

PAGE 128

7DEOH $ &RQWLQXHGf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nV WKULOOHUV WKDW KDV HQMR\HG SKHQRPHQDO SRSXODULW\ LQ UHFHQW \HDUV SURGXFHG D VXGGHQ IULJKW IRU LWV SXEOLVKHU \HVWHUGD\ DIWHU LQYHVWRUV OHDUQHG RI WKH ERRNVn GHFOLQLQJ VDOHV GUDLQ HPSW\ %HJLQ E\ VKXWWLQJ RII WKH VLQNnV ZDWHU VXSSO\ 7XUQ RQ WKH IDXFHW WR GUDLQ DQ\ ZDWHU LQ WKH IL[WXUHnV SLSHV VOLJKW RPLW +H IHHOV VOLJKWV NHHQO\ OLNH KLV RPLVVLRQ IURP WKH ODVW 'UHDP 7HDP ZKLFK KH GHVHUYHG WR PDNH EXW GLGQnW

PAGE 129

7DEOH $ &RQWLQXHGf :RUG SDLUV 3ULPLQJ VHQWHQFHV 6WLPXOXV VHW VHQVH UHDVRQ 8QIRUWXQDWHO\ ODZV DUH DPHQGHG VR RIWHQ WKDW QRW RQO\ RUGLQDU\ FLWL]HQV EXW HYHQ RIILFLDOV GLUHFWO\ UHVSRQVLEOH IRU WKH LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI WKHVH ODZV FDQQRW PDNH VHQVH RI DOO WKH QXPHURXV DPHQGPHQWV VNLP EURZVH $Q DXWRELRJUDSK\ E\ 'DYH 'DYLHV LV ORDGHG ZLWK VORSS\ ZULWLQJ LWn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nV WHOHSKRQH SUREOHP ZKLOH WKH FXVWRPHU LV RQ WKH WHOHSKRQH

PAGE 130

/,67 2) 5()(5(1&(6 $OWDUULED f 7KH UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ RI WUDQVODWLRQ HTXLYDOHQWV LQ ELOLQJXDO PHPRU\ ,Q 5 +DUULV (Gf &RJQLWLYH SURFHVVLQJ LQ ELOLQJXDOV 1RUWK+ROODQG $PVWHUGDP (OVHYLHU 6FLHQFH 3XEOLVKHUV $PHGW & t *HQWLOH f $ WHVW RI GXDOFRGLQJ WKHRU\ IRU ELOLQJXDO PHPRU\ &DQDGLDQ -RXUQDO RI 3V\FKRORJ\ %DUVDORX / : f $G KRF FDWHJRULHV 0HPRU\ DQG &RJQLWLRQ %DUVDORX / : f ,GHDOV FHQWUDO WHQGHQF\ DQG IUHTXHQF\ RI LQVWDQWLDWLRQ DV GHWHUPLQDQWV RI JUDGHG VWUFXWXUH LQ FDWHJRULHV -RXUQDO RI ([SHULPHQWDO 3V\FKRORJ\ /HDUQLQJ 0HPRU\ DQG &RJQLWLRQ %DUVDORX / : f 7KH LQVWDELOLW\ RI JUDGHG VWUXFWXUH ,PSOLFDWLRQV IRU WKH QDWXUH RI FRQFHSWV ,Q 8 1HLVVHU (Gf &RQFHSWV DQG FRQFHSWXDO GHYHORSPHQW 1HZ
PAGE 131

&RPHDX / *HQHVHH ) 1LFRODGLV ( t 9UDNDV f &DQ \RXQJ ELOLQJXDO FKLOGUHQ LGHQWLI\ ODQJXDJH FKRLFH DV D FDXVH RI EUHDNGRZQ LQ FRPPXQLFDWLRQ" 3DSHU SUHVHQWHG DW VW $QQXDO &RQIHUHQFH RI /DQJXDJH 'HYHORSPHQWV %RVWRQ 8QLYHUVLW\ 1RYHPEHU 'H *URRW $ 0 % f %LOLQJXDO OH[LFDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ $ FORVHU ORRN DW FRQFHSWXDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQV ,Q 5 )URVW t / .DW] (GVf 2UWKRJUDSK\ 3KRQRORJ\ 0RUSKRORJ\ DQG 0HDQLQJ $PVWHUGDP (OVYLHU 'H *URRW $ 0 % t 1DV / f /H[LFDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ RI FRJQDWHV DQG QRQFRJQDWHV LQ FRPSRXQG ELOLQJXDOV -RXUQDO RI 0HPRU\ DQG /DQJXDJH 'L6FLXOOR $0 0X\VNHQ 3 t 6LQJK 5 f *RYHUQPHQW DQG FRGHPL[LQJ -RXUQDO RI /LQJXLVWLFV 'XIRXU 5 t .UROO f 0DWFKLQJ ZRUGV WR FRQFHSWV LQ WZR ODQJXDJHV $ WHVW RI WKH FRQFHSW PHGLDWLRQ PRGHO RI ELOLQJXDO UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ 0HPRU\ DQG &RJQLWLRQ 'XUJXQRJOX $ t 5RHGLJHU + f 7HVW GLIIHUHQFHV LQ DFFHVVLQJ ELOLQJXDO PHPRU\ -RXUQDO RI 0HPRU\ DQG /DQJXDJH )LOOPRUH & t $WNLQV % 7 f 7RZDUG D IUDPHEDVHG OH[LFRQ 7KH VHPDQWLFV RI 5,6. DQG LWV QHLJKERUV ,Q $ /HKUHU DQG ( ) .LWWD\ (GVf )UDPHV ILHOGV DQG FRQWUDVWV 1HZ HVVD\V LQ VHPDQWLF DQG OH[LFDO RUJDQL]DWLRQ +LOOVGDOH 1/DZUHQFH (UOEDXP $VVRFLDWHV )LYXVK 5 f 6FULSWV DQG FDWHJRULHV ,QWHUUHODWLRQVKLSV LQ GHYHORSPHQW ,Q 8 1HLVVHU (Gf &RQFHSWV DQG FRQFHSWXDO GHYHORSPHQW (FRORJLFDO DQG LQWHOOHFWXDO IDFWRUV LQ FDWHJRUL]DWLRQ (PRU\ V\PSRVLD LQ FRJQLWLRQ / 1HZ
PAGE 132

*UHHQ : f &RQWURO DFWLYDWLRQ DQG UHVRXUFH D IUDPHZRUN DQG D PRGHO IRU WKH FRQWURO RI VSHHFK LQ ELOLQJXDOV %UDLQ DQG /DQJXDJH *ULIILQ t +DUOH\ 7 f /LVW OHDUQLQJ RI VHFRQG ODQJXDJH YRFDEXODU\ $SSOLHG 3V\FKROLQJXLVWLFV *URVMHDQ ) f $ SV\FKROLQJXLVWLF DSSURDFK WR FRGHVZLWFKLQJ WKH UHFRJQLWLRQ RI JXHVW ZRUGV E\ ELOLQJXDOV ,Q / 0\OUR\ DQG 3 0X\VNHQ (GVf 2QH VSHDNHU WZR ODQJXDJHV &URVVGLVFLSOLQDU\ SHUVSHFWLYHV RQ FRGHVZLWFKLQJ 1HZ
PAGE 133

.UROO ) t 3RWWHU 0& f 5HFRJQL]LQJ ZRUGV SLFWXUHV DQG FRQFHSWV $ FRPSDULVRQ RI OH[LFDO REMHFW DQG UHDOLW\ GHFLVLRQV -RXUQDO RI 9HUEDO /HDUQLQJ DQG 9HUEDO %HKDYLRU .UROO ) t 6KROO $ f /H[LFDO DQG FRQFHSWXDO PHPRU\ LQ IOXHQW DQG QRQIOXHQW ELOLQJXDOV ,Q 5 +DUULV (Gf &RJQLWLYH SURFHVVLQJ LQ ELOLQJXDOV 1RUWK+ROODQG $PVWHUGDP (OVHYLHU 6FLHQFH 3XEOLVKHUV .UROO t 6WHZDUW ( f &DWHJRU\ LQIHUHQFH LQ WUDQVODWLRQ DQG SLFWXUH QDPLQJ (YLGHQFH IRU DV\PPHWULF FRQQHFWLRQV EHWZHHQ ELOLQJXDO PHPRU\ UHSUHVHQWDWLRQV -RXUQDO RI 0HPRU\ DQG /DQJXDJH /DNRII f &RJQLWLYH PRGHOV DQG SURWRW\SH WKHRU\ ,Q 8 1HLVVHU (Gf &RQFHSWV DQG FRQFHSWXDO GHYHORSPHQW (FRORJLFDO DQG LQWHOOHFWXDO IDFWRUV LQ FDWHJRUL]DWLRQ (PRU\ V\PSRVLD LQ FRJQLWLRQ / 1HZ
PAGE 134

0F&DXOH\ 5 1 f 7KH UROH RI WKHRULHV LQ D WKHRU\ RI FRQFHSWV ,Q 8 1HLVVHU (Gf &RQFHSWV DQG FRQFHSWXDO GHYHORSPHQW (FRORJLFDO DQG LQWHOOHFWXDO IDFWRUV LQ FDWHJRUL]DWLRQ (PRU\ V\PSRVLD LQ FRJQLWLRQ / 1HZ
PAGE 135

3DLYLR $ &ODUN t /DPEHUW : f %LOLQJXDO GXDOFRGLQJ WKHRU\ DQG VHPDQWLF UHSHWLWLRQ HIIHFWV RQ UHFDOO -RXUQDO RI H[SHULPHQWDO 3V\FKRORJ\ /HDUQLQJ 0HPRU\ DQG &RJQLWLRQ 3DUDGLV 0 f 1HXUROLQJXLVWLF RUJDQL]DWLRQ RI D ELOLQJXDOfV WZR ODQJXDJHV ,Q ( &RSHODQG t 3 : 'DYLV (GVf 7KH VHYHQWK /$&86 IRUXP &ROXPELD 6& +RUQEHDP 3UHVV 3HUHFPDQ ( f /DQJXDJH SURFHVVLQJ LQ WKH ELOLQJXDO HYLGHQFH IURP ODQJXDJH PL[LQJ ,Q +\OVWHQVWDP DQG / 2EOHU (GVf %LOLQJXDOLVP DFURVV WKH OLIHVSDQ $VSHFWV RI DFTXLVLWLRQ PDWXULW\ DQG ORVV 1HZ
PAGE 136

5RVFK ( Df &RJQLWLYH UHIHUHQFH SRLQWV &RJQLWLYH 3V\FKRORJ\ 5RVFK ( Ef &RJQLWLYH UHSUHVHQWDWLRQV RI VHPDQWLF FDWHJRULHV -RXUQDO RI ([SHULPHQWDO 3V\FKRORJ\ *HQHUDO 5RVFK ( f 3ULQFLSOHV RI &DWHJRUL]DWLRQ ,Q ( 5RVFK DQG % /OR\G HGVf &RJQLWLRQ DQG &DWHJRUL]DWLRQ +LOOVGDOH 1/DZUHQFH (UOEDXP $VVRFLDWHV 5XG]ND2VW\Q % (Gf f 7RSLFV LQ FRJQLWLYH OLQJXLVWLFV $PVWHUGDP t 3KLODGHOSKLD -RKQ %HQMDPLQV 6FDUERURXJK / *HUDUG / t &UWHVH & f ,QGHSHQGHQFH RI OH[LFDO DFFHVV LQ ELOLQJXDO ZRUG UHFRJQLWLRQ -RXUQDO RI 9HUEDO /HDUQLQJ DQG 9HUEDO %HKDYLRU 6KROO $ 6DQNDQUDQDUD\DQDQ $ t .UROO f 7UDQVIHU EHWZHHQ SLFWXUH QDPLQJ DQG WUDQVODWLRQ $ WHVW RI DV\PPHWULHV LQ ELOLQJXDO PHPRU\ 3V\FKRORJLFDO 6FLHQFH 6PLWK 0 & f 2Q WKH UHFUXLWPHQW RI VHPDQWLF LQIRUPDWLRQ IRU ZRUG IUDJPHQW FRPSOHWLRQ (YLGHQFH IURP ELOLQJXDO SULPLQJ -RXUQDO RI ([SHULPHQWDO 3V\FKRORJ\ /HDUQLQJ 0HPRU\ DQG &RJQLWLRQ 6QRGJUDVV f &RQFHSWV DQG WKHLU VXUIDFH UHSUHVHQWDWLRQV -RXUQDO RI 9HUEDO /HDUQLQJ DQG 9HUEDO %HKDYLRU 6QRGJUDVV -* f 7UDQVODWLQJ YHUVXV SLFWXUH QDPLQJ 6LPLODULWLHV DQG GLIIHUHQFHV ,Q & 6FKUHXGHU DQG :HOWHQV (GVf 7KH ELOLQJXDO OH[LFRQ $PVWHUGDP t 3KLODGHOSKLD -RKQ %HQMDPLQV 3XEOLVKLQJ &RPSDQ\ 6QRGJUDVV t 9DQGHUZDUW 0 f $ VWDQGDUGL]HG VHW RI SLFWXUHV 1RUPV IRU QDPH DJUHHPHQWV LPDJH DJUHHPHQW IDPLOLDULW\ DQG YLVXDO FRPSOH[LW\ -RXUQDO RI ([SHULPHQWDO 3V\FKRORJ\ +XPDQ /HDUQLQJ DQG 0HPRU\ 7DERVVL 3 f (IIHFWV RI FRQWH[W RQ WKH LPPHGLDWH LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI XQDPELJXRXV QRXQV -RXUQDO RI ([SHULPHQWDO 3V\FKRORJ\ /HDUQLQJ 0HPRU\ DQG &RJQLWLRQ 7DOP\ / f /H[LFDOL]DWLRQ SDWWHUQV 6HPDQWLF VWUXFWXUHV LQ OH[LFDO IRUPV ,Q 7 6KRSSHQ (Gf /DQJXDJH W\SRORJ\ DQG V\QWDFWLF GHVFULSWLRQV *UDPPDWLFDO FDWHJRULHV DQG WKH V\QWD[ f 1HZ
PAGE 137

7RPDVHOOR 0 f 7KH SUDJPDWLFV RI HDUO\ ZRUG OHDUQLQJ 3DSHU SUHVHQWHG DW Vn $QQXDO &RQIHUHQFH RI /DQJXDJH 'HYHORSPHQWV %RVWRQ 8QLYHUVLW\ 1RYHPEHU 7]HOJRY ) t (EHQ(]UD 6 f &RPSRQHQWV RI WKH EHWZHHQODQJXDJH VHPDQWLF SULPLQJ HIIHFW 7KH (XURSHDQ -RXUQDO RI &RJQLWLYH 3V\FKRORJ\ 9DLG f %LOLQJXDO PHPRU\ UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ $ IXUWKHU WHVW RI GXDO FRGLQJ WKHRU\ &DQDGLDQ -RXUQDO RI 3V\FKRORJ\ 9ROWHUUD 9 t 7DHVFKQHU 7 f 7KH DFTXLVLWLRQ DQG GHYHORSPHQW RI ODQJXDJH E\ ELOLQJXDO FKLOGUHQ -RXUQDO RI &KLOG /DQJXDJH :DWNLQV 0 t 3H\QLUFLRJOX = ) f 2Q WKH QDWXUH RI ZRUG UHFDOO (YLGHQFH IRU OLQJXLVWLF VSHFLILFLW\ -RXUQDO RI 9HUEDO /HDUQLQJ DQG 9HUEDO %HKDYLRU :KHHOGRQ / t 0RQVHO 6 f 7KH ORFXV RI UHSHWLWLRQ SULPLQJ RI VSRNHQ ZRUG SURGXFWLRQ 4XDUWHUO\ -RXUQDO RI ([SHULPHQWDO 3V\FKRORJ\ $ :LOOLDPV f 7KH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ ZRUG PHDQLQJ LQ WKH ILUVW DQG VHFRQG ODQJXDJH (YLGHQFH IRU D FRPPRQ EXW UHVWULFWHG VHPDQWLF FRGH (XURSHDQ -RXUQDO RI &RJQLWLYH 3V\FKRORJ\ :RQJ)LOOPRUH / f 7KH VHFRQG WLPH DURXQG &RJQLWLYH DQG VRFLDO VWUDWHJLHV LQ VHFRQG ODQJXDJH DFTXLVLWLRQ 'RFWRUDO GLVVHUWDWLRQ 6WDQIRUG 8QLYHUVLW\
PAGE 138

%,2*5$3+,&$/ 6.(7&+ 'LQD %HO\D\HYD ZDV ERP LQ 0RVFRZ 5XVVLD LQ ,Q VKH UHFHLYHG 8QLYHUVLW\ 'LSORPD FXP ODXGH IURP 0RVFRZ 3HGDJRJLFDO 8QLYHUVLW\ ZKHUH VKH PDMRUHG LQ (QJOLVK OLQJXLVWLFV DQG HGXFDWLRQ 8SRQ JUDGXDWLRQ VKH ZRUNHG DV D ODQJXDJH LQVWUXFWRU IRU WKH 81,'2 7UDLQLQJ &HQWUH LQ 0RVFRZ 5XVVLD ,Q VKH FDPH WR WKH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI )ORULGD WR SXUVXH KHU GRFWRUDWH LQ OLQJXLVWLFV 6KH OLYHV LQ &RQQHFWLFXW ZLWK KHU KXVEDQG DQG D VL[\HDUROG VRQ

PAGE 139

, FHUWLI\ WKDW KDYH UHDG WKLV VWXG\ DQG WKDW LQ P\ RSLQLRQ LW FRQIRUPV WR DFFHSWDEOH VWDQGDUGV RI VFKRODUO\ SUHVHQWDWLRQ DQG LV IXOO\ DGHTXDWH LQ VFRSH DQG TXDOLW\ DV D GLVVHUWDWLRQ IRU WKH GHJUHH RI 'RFWRU RI 3KLORVRSK\ FHUWLI\ WKDW KDYH UHDG WKLV VWXG\ DQG WKDW LQ P\ RSLQLRQ LW FRQIRUPV WR DFFHSWDEOH VWDQGDUGV RI VFKRODUO\ SUHVHQWDWLRQ DQG LV IXOO\ DGHTXDWH LQ VFRSH DQG TXDOLW\ DV D GLVVHUWDWLRQ IRU WKH GHJUHH RI 'RFWRU RI 3KLORVRSK\ ,UD 6 )LVFKOHU &RFKDLU 3URIHVVRU RI 3V\FKRORJ\ FHUWLI\ WKDW KDYH UHDG WKLV VWXG\ DQG WKDW LQ P\ RSLQLRQ LW FRQIRUPV WR DFFHSWDEOH VWDQGDUGV RI VFKRODUO\ SUHVHQWDWLRQ DQG LV IXOO\ DGHTXDWH LQ VFRSH DQG TXDOLW\ DV D GLVVHUWDWLRQ IRU WKH GHJUHH RI 'RFWRU RI 3KLORVRSK\ 0LFKDHO )D $VVRFLDWH 3URIHVVRU RI 3V\FKRORJ\ FHUWLI\ WKDW KDYH UHDG WKLV VWXG\ DQG WKDW LQ P\ RSLQLRQ LW FRQIRUPV WR DFFHSWDEOH VWDQGDUGV RI VFKRODUO\ SUHVHQWDWLRQ DQG LV IXOO\ DGHTXDWH LQ VFRSH DQG TXDOLW\ DV D GLVVHUWDWLRQ IRU WKH GHJUHH RI 'RFWRU RI 3KLORVr c. 5RJHU 0 7KRPSVRQ $VVRFLDWH 3URIHVVRU RI /LQJXLVWLFV FHUWLI\ WKDW KDYH UHDG WKLV VWXG\ DQG WKDW LQ P\ RSLQLRQ LW FRQIRUPV WR DFFHSWDEOH VWDQGDUGV RI VFKRODUO\ SUHVHQWDWLRQ DQG LV IXOO\ DGHTXDWH LQ VFRSH DQG TXDOLW\ DV D GLVVHUWDWLRQ IRU WKH GHJUHH RI 'RFWRU RI 3KLORVRSK\ $VVM6W£QW 3URIHVVRU RI /LQJXLVWLFV

PAGE 140

7KLV GLVVHUWDWLRQ ZDV VXEPLWWHG WR WKH *UDGXDWH )DFXOW\ RI WKH 3URJUDP LQ /LQJXLVWLFV WR WKH &ROOHJH RI /LEHUDO $UWV DQG 6FLHQFHV DQG WR WKH *UDGXDWH 6FKRRO DQG ZDV DFFHSWHG DV SDUWLDO IXOILOOPHQW RI WKH UHTXLUHPHQWV IRU WKH GHJUHH RI 'RFWRU RI 3KLORVRSK\ $XJXVW 'HDQ *UDGXDWH 6FKRRO

PAGE 141

/' 81,9(56,7< 2) )/25,'$

PAGE 142

WUDQVODWLRQV IURP /, WR / DQG IURP / WR /, ZHUH XVHG WR WHVW WKH K\SRWKHVLV &DWHJRUL]HG DQG UDQGRPL]HG ZRUG OLVWV LQ /, DQG / ZHUH XVHG DV VWLPXOL &DWHJRUL]HG OLVWV ZHUH H[SHFWHG WR GUDZ DWWHQWLRQ WR FRQFHSWXDO SURSHUWLHV RI WKH VWLPXOXV PDWHULDO DQG FRQVHTXHQWO\ FUHDWH LQWHUIHUHQFH LQ WKH WDVNV WKDW UHTXLUH FRQFHSWXDO DFWLYDWLRQ SLFWXUH QDPLQJ DQG WUDQVODWLRQ IURP /, WR /f 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG OH[LFDOOHYHO SURFHVVLQJ ZDV SUHGLFWHG WR KDYH QR HIIHFW RQ WKH WDVNV WKDW GR QRW UHTXLUH DFFHVV WR WKH FRQFHSWXDO OHYHO RI UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ ZRUG QDPLQJ DQG WUDQVODWLRQ IURP / WR /,f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f KDG D FDWHJRU\ LQWHUIHUHQFH HIIHFW LQ SURGXFWLRQ EXW D FDWHJRU\ DGYDQWDJH LQ UHFDOO 7KH GLUHFWLRQ RI WUDQVODWLRQ WKDW ZDV K\SRWKHVL]HG WR EH OH[LFDOO\ PHGLDWHG / !/f ZDV LQVHQVLWLYH WR WKH HIIHFWV RI VHPDQWLF FRQWH[W LQ SURGXFWLRQ DQG DOVR LQ UHFDOO 7KH GLUHFWLRQDO DV\PPHWU\ ZDV DOVR GHPRQVWUDWHG LQ VHPDQWLF SULPLQJ H[SHULPHQWV 3ULPLQJ HIIHFWV UHSRUWHG ZHUH VLJQLILFDQWO\ JUHDWHU ZKHQ SULPHV ZHUH SUHVHQWHG LQ /, DQG WDUJHWV ZHUH SUHVHQWHG LQ / WKDQ ZKHQ SULPHV ZHUH SUHVHQWHG LQ / DQG WDUJHWV ZHUH SUHVHQWHG LQ /, 1HHO\ .HHIH t 5RVV $OWDUULED .UROO t 6KROO f ,W ZDV VXJJHVWHG WKDW VLPLODU WR /OWR/ WUDQVODWLRQ /, SULPLQJ RI /