Wheat facts


Material Information

Wheat facts
Physical Description:
25 p. : ill. ; 28 cm.
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics
U.S.Dept. of Agriculture, Bureau of Agricultural Economics
Place of Publication:
Washington, D.C
Publication Date:


Subjects / Keywords:
Wheat   ( lcsh )
Wheat -- Statistics   ( lcsh )
Wheat -- Prices   ( lcsh )
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
non-fiction   ( marcgt )


General Note:
Cover title.
General Note:
"July, 1930."

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Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
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aleph - 028422253
oclc - 84581665
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JULY, 1930


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Bound in t w o parts


Part 1

Section 1- World wheat outlook . *

Section 2 Adjustments in the hard winter wheat area in view of
the world wheat outlook a o a a a a

Section 3 -

1- 4
.. 1- 4

. .i -"

Tables and comments -
il World whveat production o . .
2, Wheat consumption trends a a .
3. Commodity price *o .
4. Combines in the United States, Caiada,

Australia and Argentina a o .
5. Use of tractors and exports to other countries .
6. Russia as a factor in the world wheat situation o
7. Effects upon prices of reduction in production
in the United States . .
8. The United States wheat production, exports and
price by classes, 1923-1929 a .
9. World wheat supply and price, 1920-1929 a
10. Carryover or stocks as of July 1, 1920-1929 .
11. World wheat production by countries,
average 1909-1913, 1923-1927 and
annual 1928-1930 o o a *
12. Import duties levied by foreign countries .
13. Tariff duties levied by France, Germany and
Italy . . ... .
14. Notes on cattle production and price cycles .

Part II

Supplementary Charts


JULY, 1930



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l Released for. Morning Papers
July 3, 1930


Extensive adjustment in wheat growing, including substantial reduction
in'cost per bushel, must be made if wheat production is to be profitable to
growers generally in the next six to ten years. This is necessary to meet
intensified competition in world markets, due to increasing production in this
and other countries without a corresponding increase in effective demand.

mn tWhile improvement Is expected over the low level of prices of the past
i.month, the present prospect is that world wheat prices during the next seven
years will average appreciably lower than in the past seven years. In the
period July 1, 1923 to July 1, 1930, the price of No. 2 hard winter heat at
m.aaMas City averaged $1.28 per bushel. The average for June, 1930 was about
90 cents per bushel. As in the past, variation in price is expected. In years
i of short world crops, with business conditions normal or better, prices will
j*doubtless be much higher than those now prevailing, but in other years large
,wrld crops may result in prices even below the present level.

SStocks of wheat increased materially from 1926 to 1929 as a result of in-
| -creasing crops. From the large crop of 1928 an exceptionally large amount was
SCarried over. A surplus condition persists in spite of a much shorter crop in
j 1939; although the carryover into the 1930-31 season is less than last season
it is still very large. Under the pressure of the accumulated wheat surplus,
reinforced in 1929 by large crops of other cereals in Europe and a world-wide
'business depression accompanied by a marked decline in commodity prices in
general, wheat prices have fallen below the low levels reached in 1923-24.

SThe present prospect is that the 1930 world wheat crop will be only a
Little larger than the small crop of 1929, and that world supplies for 1930-31
Swill be no larger than they were for 1929-30. Recent low prices of wheat,
V under the influence of unusually restricted demand for wheat and general do-
5 lines in commodity and security markets, have been below the levels that
.if appear warranted by prospective supplies and demand for the year as a whole;
Sbut u mless serious crop deterioration should occur this year, prices satisfac-
. 'ory to wheat growers cannot be expected until stocks are reduced to more
Shonarml size and production is brought in line with consumption, Now that farm-
era are making their plans for next year3 s acreage, it is important that the
ji heat outlook be taken into account, not only for the next twelve months but
:1alao for the coming years.
.11 During the past twelve months, as in 1920-1931, a decline in the general
iConmodlty price level was an important factor in the decline in wheat prices.
SZIn the United States, wholesale prices in general declined about 10 per cent
from Juy, 1929 to the end of May. A further decline in June probably has
Sought the level down nearly 15 per cent below that of a year ago. In many
;Oreign countries prices have declined even more than in the United States&
Im provment in the general commodity price level from the present depression is

Bureau of Agricultural Economics
Washington, D.C.

S2 -

to be expected in the course. of the next twelve months, but there is mone
ground for expecting the broad treM of the general prize level to be down-
ward; this would mean that the peak of the next price cycle is not likely to
be as high as the high.points of the past few years. Whee prices in the
United States are likely to share in the downward trend of the general price .'
level, the extent of the decline depending in part upon the action of wheat
growers in this and other countries.. .

Low that prices, suchi as those recently prevailing, will cause cob-
traction of acreage in somc parts of the world; but the trends of wheat nre.tp@;
and production in the past few years indicate that expansion is likely to CeiD.f:;,
tinae in many countries even at prices lower tman the average of the past ..
seven years. In recent years, in the face'of falling prices, heeat acreage l
has expanded rapidly in parts of the United States, Canada, Argentina, at ..
Australia. The area sown in the southwestern winter wheat states increase S
approximately 4 million acres from 1924 to 1929. During the same period$ tb : *1
area in Canada, Argentina and Anstralia combined increased over 10 million i
acres, from 49 to 59 million. This is in line with the trend in expanon .... ......
since 1910. The area in the Southwestern States, in 1929 was 14 million 9BMfl?
larger than in 1910, while that of Argentina, Canada, and Australia ia s :
million acres larger. The expansion of the last few years has been made
possible chiefly by improvement in equipment, now wheat varieties, ad 1*-
proved cultivation practices particularly in regions of scanty rainfall Be.
it has been possible, by larger-scale, lower-cost methods to raise wheat a
lands hitherto regarded as unsuited for the crop. Large areas of such leads
are still available for wheat production at comparatively low costs, in i3a
portant surplus-producing countries.
.'* ." '. ..,, ....""

Russia, before the late war, was one of the greatest wheat-prodSOi u tj
and rheat-exporting countries; in the five crop years 1909 to 1913 .export'.iz 4 i!
aged 164 million bushels a year, Since the war her wheat e xporta have bea ...
negligible except in 1925-26 and 1926-27 when t hey were small; but Ruae ia 9 ,
likely to re-enter the export field as an important competitor Within the B A.
decade. Russia has large undeveloped resources for wteat production. TI-
Soviet government is making strenuous efforts to introduce machinery .and t :
improve methods of growing the crop. There is reason to expect that these .
efforts will result in Increasing exports and eventually in a large surplus ".,,.
that will be pressed upon thce export market. ::

The world demand for wheat increased rapidly from 1920 to 1939, in parWt.
because of recovery in purchasing power in many countries of Europe, but 1W
rate of incroaso in demand is likely to be slower in the next few years. ,
Population is .increasing at a retarded rate. Further increases in puIrha14.. .:
power seam likely to be loss notable in the next few years. In the United I.t4:
and in Anglo-Saxon countries generally, and-in Franco as well, per capital 7 ,
consumption of wheat products is much lower than before the war and shown E
tendency to increase. In some countries of continental burope per capital 00C-
sumption of wheat has been growing at the expense of rye, corn, and some other .
foodstuffs; but high tariffs on theat and flour and other regulatory measureW
now in effect .in many of the wheat-importing countries are tending to chok thMi
Otpansrion, and. oven temporarily reverse it by making wheat relatively dear in *
period of business depression when economies are .ne.saemyw In the Orient, aa


44.N 'I~i

:jn general outside of North America, Europe, and Australia, per capital consump-
"tion of wheat is apparently en the increase, and this trend may be expected to
o ontimnue. Altogether it seems probable that world wheat consumption in the
next few years will not increase much faster than population increases, except
gAm lower levels of wheat prices may lead to increased per capital consumption
Sln countries where wheat is now a minor element of diet.

I Broadly viewed, the outlook is for continuance of severe competition in
the wheat export trade. Bumper crops in exporting countries generally, such as
occurred in 1928, or short crops in these countries, as in 1929, may not soon
t e repeated; but the exportable surpluses of Canada, Argentina, A-dstralia, and
tI he Balkan countries are tending upward, and iRussia may again become a large
* porter within the next ten years. Such extreme contraction in European wheat
imports as occurred in 1929-30 is likely to be temporary, but restrictive
1.-eaeu&res there tend to check expansion in imports of wheat. World wheat prices
re especially sensitive to the relation between export surpluses and the de-
SMianda of importing countries and our wheat growers must be prepared to meet
Increasingly severe competition in international trade,

$ The outlook for every wheat producer in the United States is affected by
Sorlp d wheat prospects. The significance of these prospects, however, varies
t*o a considerable extent' with the relation of supplies to the domestic demand
tor the several classes of wheat produced.

j Soft rod winter wheat is consumed largely in domestic markets. In most
rears since the war this type of wheat has sold for prices well above export
p.3rice levels. A continuation of the recent tendency to reduce wheat acreage
a.st of the Mississippi River may soon reduce production of soft red winter
tboat to a level so low that oven in a year of high yields and low abandonment
jlr:oduction will not exceed the usual domestic requirements. The price advantages
jiecured by the soft red winter wheat producer may not, however, be sufficient
to offset the tendency toward lower prices for all wheat. Low protein hard red
wBinter wheat will be substituted for soft red winter to an increasing extent as
the price margin of soft rod winter increases over hard winter wheats. Pro-
cers of soft red winter wheat are therefore concerned with the outlook for
... other types of wheat,

,' With the exception of a few years of large crops and heavy carryovers,
..our production of hard red spring wheat also has been consumed mostly in domestic
markets. As a rule this wheat commands prices more or less above export prices,
;owing to the tariff that keeps down imports of Canadian wheat. During the past
season, prices of this type of wheat have been severely affected by competition
of bard red winter wheat and by the general decline of world wheat prices, in
pite of the short crop and limited exports of hard red spring. This type of
.wheat is likely to continue to sell on the average above an export basis, but
I.ts price will be influenced mot only by tho carryover and production of this
"wheat, but also by the carryover, production, and prices of hard winter wheat.

i: ^ s_:+; ... _

- 4 -

Hard red winter, durum, and the wheats of the Pacific Northwest have to
look to foreign countries for a market for a considerable surplus above domestic
consumption. In the past seven years these wheats have contributed about 88 pr
cent of the total exports" of unmilled wheat and some of the flour. The unfilled.
exports of these wheats have averaged nearly 25 per cent of their total pro-
duction, and more could have been exported without reducing stocks below normal.

Even though the United States produces loss than one-fourth of the
world's wheat supplies outside of Russia, aLrterial reduction in the crop would
result in some improvement in prices, A curtailment in the production of export
wheats would. not only tend to raise the world wheat price level but it would
also improve the relation of domestic to foreign market prices. Over a period
of years, however, the initial increase in the world price of wheat resulting
from a diminution in our exports probably would be offset in some degree by
expansion in production and exports of other countries, but a large part of the
improvement in domestic prices in relation world market prices probably would

With the world situation pointing to a lower level of prices in the next
six to ten years than has prevailed in the last seven years, farmers should
seriously consider whether their land, their farm organization, and their fam
practices are suitable for wheat production under those prospective conditions.
Adjustments should be made not so -ach in view of the experience of the past few
years as in view of the prospects for several years ahead.

In some areas a portion of the wheat acreage may well be devoted to other
crops or to livestock. Shifts, however, should be nade only after a careful
study of the prospects for profitable returns. In the aggregate these shifts
should not go so far as to produce burdensome surpluses of other commodities.
The more extensive use of soil-improvement crops such as sweet clover, fallowing
a larger portion of the land in the dried sections, and even leaving the least
productive land unplanted should be given consideration.
SRem 4 themnewor what areas where the new tlow-cost met hods havevbees
accompanie y rapi expansion o oA acreage, wn&At growing on ana east a
to the new low-cost methods of production may have to besbandoned. Establishaent
of new wheat-growing enterprises under present and prospective price conditions
is likely to be hazardous, unless it can be done on land where lower production
costs are possible. Everywhere attention should be given to possibilities of
reducing production costs as one of the means of meeting competition.

The possibilities of adjustment in wheat growing vary in character and
extent in the different areas and even on individual farms, and spodific applisca-
tion of the wheat outlook can not be satisfactorily discussed in a brief review
of the situation from a national standpoint. Adjustments will be dealt with
rore specifically in regional and state surveys or conferences by theso familiar
with local conditions,


Bureau of Agricultural Economics

Released for Morning Papers
July 7, 1930


This statement was prepared by representatives of the Agri-
cultural Colleges and Experiment Stations of Kansas, Neb-
raska, Colorado, Oklahoma, and Texas, the United States
Department of Agriculture and the Federal Farm Board.

With increasing foreign competition and a prospect that the aver-
age price of wheat in world markets during the next six to ten years
will be lower than in the past seven, hard winter wheat growers must
seriously consider the suitability of their farms, organization, and
Practices for profitable wheat production in the future.

; As long as hard winter wheat is produced in excess of domestic
S requirements, that class of wheat will be very sensitive to world market
conditions. In the past seven years the exports of hrrd rod winter
S wheat constituted nearly 20 par cent of our production of that type of
wheat and 48 per c:.-nt of our totrl exports of unmillod wheat. Even at that,
the exports in the past two ycrrs have not boon sufficient to cleonr the
domestic markets at the end of the sensorn for the now crops. A material
reduction in the supply of hard rod winter wheat would not only rise thi
level of world what prices by its effect upon the tot.l -.orld supply, but
it would also narrow the spread in prices between Kansas City and Liverpool,
resulting in a substantial improvement in the relation between domestic
and foreign market prices. Over a period of yenrs, the initial increase
in the world price of ;haat resulting from ac diminution in our exports
probE-bly would be offset in ome degree by expansion in production and
exports of other countries, but a largu pnrt of the improvement in domestic
prices in relation to world mv rkct prices probably would remain.

WWheat growers in the hard winter what bolt have faced the problem
of producing wheat profit.,bly in a period of increasing world competition
and declining prices. Up to the present time, many gro-'ors havo beeoon able
S to meet this situation by substantial reductions in costs secured through
improved farm organization and production methods. The mdro important
factors that have contributed to mcka this possible are: rnpid adoption
of improved tractors, development of small combines, increased use of
bettor adapted wheat vaziietios, and bettor tillago methods which facilita.te
early pr-paration of tho soeed bed -nd moisture conaasrvttion and nn increase



in the size of the. usual .hz.t trrm. U:dor the- influence of those improve-
t..ir.ts, th. t;cnt -..cr,-, go hrs buon ms.torially uxprn.deid in tho western
portions of thz hb.rd .-:intor whuc-t tilt, during -. period vihon agricultural
pric':s h-vo bcn settling to loiir lovols; and incrorsod production there
hL.s boon in turn f-ctor nrking for doclinjs in thort prices.

Whore the lrnd-is e.ll suited to .;hor.t, imnirovomonts in production :
prrcticos might v.oll bt noru gonorrlly adopted. In t-Q hard r-inter
i.h3at bolt, an incrcasc in the 'size of mrny fr.aes will frcilitato the
adoption of rowor methods cnd equipment. In some parts of the hard Uinter
w-hoat belt n. toriv-.l incrs.-.ses hnvo r.lrcrLdy boon r=.d.- in the size tf family
fnrms, -id further incre ses scon pro-r.blu rnd dosirrblo. By such morns .
rcrc costs crn beo loorod, yields incro sod, r.nd bushel costs brought down. i

Furtharmorc, in the we:ostorn portions of the hrrd -;ntor vhont
bolt jxporionco a.nd roso-.rch h-vo damonstr.ted the dosirrbility of fellow-
ing lands used for ThoA.t-plenting thort en only portion of the irEnd
coach ycar. Under this nothod higher avar-ge yields rnd higher protein
content a"rj ordinarily secured than ;hor: "-hLzrt is grown continuously. Botter.
distribution of thu use of lr.bor .r d < quipmont is secured whoro fallo.Ting
is pr-cticod. s'allcr cr:.,;.- c is hi.r-rostud to secure r given number of bush
of r:hlot, thus rcducirng hrrT-.-stin c-sts p-)r bushel. Tnhero p-.rt of the lrnd ii
f-llow d coach y-rr, a. di.-crz;r.-r ro. sof bcl prup:-rrticn irnathods is c necessary
cDnsoquonco. This gives &-r.rj..r stability t.:' ':bhjr.t production since no one
mer.thod of p-upn.ring th. scod bjd ir g'.nrra3ll.y bc-st y.iar -.ftar yortr. This
tends to rcuce th.j risk cf cp.1~pl.-tc frilurc in a.y one yc-r, thereby giving .
rhcat product n in tht sub-humid r.rov.s gr'-r.ter strbiiity -.nd lo'ter costs,
A ..rtzri'1 incr,.rso in the prvcticc of f; lloring is desir-.blo.

In vic- of tho chr.iios in rhc'rt prod-icticn th-t seem inevitrblo during
th. next f o-:- y.; rs, Tr torirl -.djustmwrts in the; older rhest-producing arons
ro highly dusirr'lc. On nrry f-rr.s :horo rto't production hr.s long bon r
morc or loss i.:npcrt:t nt f.mn unturprisc, the nor conditions dcmarnd at loest
prti, 1 :.ithidr--.r;l. Hero, it is irupnrt-nt Lo consider c rofully the relation 1
th. :;-hc-t enterprisee to thu othor anturprises in thJ ocstr.blishod systems of

The problem of Thoso ch-nr.gos -t once rF.ises the question of substitutes
for ;thst. Thi g"nnr-l tundcncy in thcsu o].dar what areas is to substitute
hay a.nd p.sture crops such r.s sweot clover, ,lfrlf,, cud other legumes for a
largo part of thu gr: in crop .cru: go. Those crops serve the double purpose ot
soil inprovjrcnt n-xd food for livestock. Any considerable r-ccolorrtion Of tho
rate r.t which this dovclopnont is going -n, however, exposes the frrmors of
those r.ror.s to the d-ngar of axprnding unduly their livestock ontcrprisos,
particularly in tomrs of boof and driry production, and thus contributing to
the periodic ovor-axpnnsL n of those industries.


There las beer evidence of a tendency to increase lanId values in the
nQwer wheat regions. In view of the outlook for wheat in the next few
yoers, tri s tendeouc r.'-x result in distress if the lmd is over-capitalized.
The past experience of regions in which farninG has boon reolaJivol, profit-
able is that the resultant higher inct.s have beun used too frequently ina
the hiier capitalization of the lmad. at t".c ultimate oxpdhse of the stvn-
dards of living of the people on the land. Disaster has often followed
doclininc prices when MchI of the increased income has boen used to bid up
lnnd vlucs. Excessive coipetitimon for the control of laJ lhas resulted in
boon conditions in which land values rose to levels that could not be
Smipportod by its producing capacity. The consequences of such booms and
their inevitable collpso are loss of farm homes, bank failures, and
finr.ancially demoralized coraamities. Thliose portions of the hard winter wheat
belt where incomes have boon relatively high in recent years mst guard
against the developi-Lont of such conditions.

Tho use of part oO the f,.rri income in fortunate years to retire in-
debtedness, .iake improvements, or accur.ralate reserves that can be used to
tilo over adverse years is a wise policy. It is established business
- practice to set up reserves against i.-ergencies. This principle applies to
wheat production in the Gre.rt Plains region in particular, because of the
variability in weather aid other produ-action conditions. Unier those condi-
tions, the use of a portion of the income for investments that are readily
saleable and of stable vr2uo is hiily desirable. Such reserves arc then
Available if needed in tinms of less favorable returns.

In vimvew of the increasing world production of wheat and the probable
lower level of prices, special caution should be exercised in expanding
wheat production in those areas whore limited rainfall aud other uncertain
factors make wheat growing particularly precarious. Expansion within these
Areas, if at all advisable, should be undertaken only by those thoroughly
fan.liar with the conditions cnd the hazards involved.


Bureau of Agricu.ltu.ral economics


Tables and Comments


JULY, 1930



In 1898 Sir William Crookes, an eminent British Scientist,

predicted that, unless yields per acre were increased, the

world would have a shortage of wheat by 1931 even if all the

potentially available wheat land were put in use. Sir

William was not an economist, but a physical scientist

arguing for the need of the application of science to increase

wheat yields. In that day the average yield per acre for

the world was figured at 12.7 bushels per acre.
WThether or not the world took Sir William Crookes'

plea to heart, the world now has a larger yield per acre. In

the past seven years it has averaged 14.1 bushels, and the

difference of 1.4 bushels per acre by which the average yield

of the past seven years exceeds the average of 1898 makes a

tremendous difference in the world total wheat production.

On last your's wheat area of 320 million acres it makes a

difference of 548 million bushels.

But Sir '.7illim nIas mistaken about thu amount of

potential wheat growing land in the World. He thought that

the wheat area could be increased by only about 100 million acres.


The increase from 1898 to 1929 amounted to 105 million acres

and the end is not yet in sight. Canada has now twice

as much land in wheat as Sir William thought was her


The extent to which Sir William Crookes was mistaken is ..

indicated by what'. his opinion was about the United States.
He said: "Practically there remains no uncultivated prairie

land in the United States suitable for wheat-growing. The

virgin land has been rapidly absorbed, until at present there

is no land left for wheat without reducing the area for

maize, hay, and other necessary crops. It is almost certain

that within E. generation the ever increasing population

of the United States will consume all the wheat grown within

its borders, and will be driven to import, and like ourselves,

will scramble for a lion's sha-re of the wvheat crop of the


The development of heat growing in regions of small

rainfall and the decline in the per capita consumption of wheat

in the United Status have completely altered the prospect.

Instead of a shortage, we are faced with a burdensome surplus

(.nd we still h-vo m-ny acres of potential wheat lund which

has ncver been plowed.



World wheat needs arc greatly affected by the growth of popul--

tion and by changes in the amount of flour which people use. In the

United States, population has grown very rapidly in the p-st fifty

yeax but it now appears to be growing much less rapidly. In foreign

countries the situation varies, in -some the population is growing

more rapidly than that of the United States, while in others there

is a less rapid increase. France, for example, has had an almost

stationary population for many years.

In some countries, notably the United States, the amount of

flour which the average person uses has been decreasing. Thirty

years ago the average per capital flour consumption in the United

States was about 1.13 barrels, and it required about 5.4 bushels of

wheat to rn.ke this amount of flour. Today, duo principally to

the decline in the, amount of flour used por capital, the average

person in the United StAtes uses only s much flour as can be m-de

from about 4.2 bushels of Thc-t.

A decline of 1.2 bushels in per c-pita what consumption of

the United Sta-tes may not at first thought appear to mean very

much, but if we put it in terms of total wheat consumption for the

whole country, we sec it in its true proportions. Though ;ie

do not now have the results of the 1930 Census, it is likely that

the population of the United States is novw about 122 million persons.


If, then, the people in the United StAtes consumed 1.2 bushels more

wnheat per person, the total consumption of tho United States would

now be about 146 million bushels larger than it is. In certain

of the western European countries, there appear to h-ve been a

similar, though less drastic dccrbasc in flour consumption than in

the United States.

Despite the decrease in per capital consumption of wheat in the

United St.-Ltes ind in certain other countries, there are other parts of

the world where the consumption of what flour appears to be increasing

much more r-pidly th-An population. According to a recent study of

the Food Research Institute, the wheat consumption of tropical

countries his increased from an avur.ge of 46 million bushels annually

before the '.r to an average of 66 million bushels yearly during the

p.st five yea-rs. This is an increase of over 30 per cent in wheat

consumption. During the same period the population of these

countries h-s groin from 182 to 221 million people, an increase of

loss than 21 per cent. These tropic-l countries and the countries

of the Orient are increasing their per capital consumption of wheat,

-nd thivre is every indiction that they will continue to do so. For

them thJ i:icras& of ohcxt consumption represents an increase in

their standards of living, even as in certain of the European

count-4es the shift from rye and otb.-r dark breads to white bread

represents an increase in the standard of living.

5 -


Commodity prices in general declined considerably during

the latter part of the 1929-30 season. In the United States,

prices remained stable during July, August and September, but

following the crash in the stock market and definite evidence

that the 1929 peak in business activity had already been reached

they began to decline, and continued the downward course, with

some interruptions, to the end of June, According to the index
of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the commodity price level

for the month of May 1930 averaged nearly 10 per cent below the

level of last July. Further drastic declines took place during

the last half of June. These recent declines, according to the

Annalist weekly index for the last week of June, have brought

the general commodity price level probably nearly 15 per cent

below the level of last July.

Other countries have experienced a similar downward course
in commodity prices. The latest indexes available show the de-

clines between July 1929 and March 1930 in England, Germany,

France, Italy, the Netherlands and Japen ranged between 9 and 11

per cent. Prices in these countries, as in the United States

have experienced further recessions in recent weeks.

72ttaBhot wholesale cormodity prices in specified counttiea,
July 1929 JunG 1930
1926 100

: United States : : : : :
Year and : Bureau : : : : : oth"r-
month : Labor lGermany Fralco Italy : apsn
Sts. Annalist Kingdom oemn:re::Iay.Nehr. lands: an
: ie : : : :

1929 : : : : : :
July .....: 98 : 99 : 93 : 103 : g : 73 97 93
Aug. .....: 08 99 9: 2 : 103 : 85 : 72 : 98 92
Sept. .....: 98 : 98 : 92 : 103 : 87 : 72 : 97 : 92
Oct. .....: 96 : 97 : 92 : 102 : 87 : 72 : 97 : 91
Nov. .....: 94 : 95 : 91 : 101 : 87 : 71 : 94 : 89
Dec. .....: 94 : 94 : 90go 100 : 86 : 70 93 : 86
1930 :, :
Jan. .....: 93 : 95 : 89 : 89 : 83 69 : 593 85
Feb. .....: 92 91 : 86 96 : 82 : 68 : o90 : 84
'ar. .....: 91 : 89 : 84 : 94 : 80 : 66 : 87 : 83
Apr. .....: 91 : 89 : : 95 : :
Nay .....: 89 : 88 : : 94
June 8/....: 85 : :
a/ June- 24.

Surnary review of the cormodity

. a Declines in

cormodity prices

price decline s/

in rcccnt months,

whi ch hve been

world-wide in extent, hc.vc accompanied E. recession in business activity that
h' s reduced the volumeno of employment nd the purch- sing powtr of consumers.
Differences in the course of prices in different groups of conmodities CLM be
exprl ined only with reference to L lc-go- number of circumstcmnces -ffecting in"
dividulj. industries and mc.rkets. In raw mc.tericls the principal cause of price
fluctuations hrs boon the difficulty of adjusting the supply to the demand,
while in manufactured goods the trend of prices hr s been downward for a number -
of years, reflecting chiefly lower raw-materiel costs and economies of produc-
tion through incrocsed efficiency.

Thure appears to be no evidence in the avail blc information that price
declines in rocent years have ct any time reflected C general shortage of bcnk-
ing reserves, or of gold, but there are indications that the diversion of funds
to this country during the period of high money rr.tos contributed to the diffi-
rulties of economic reconstruction in Europe. Reduced industrial activity
abroad, in turn, diminished the demand for rr.w materials, and wr.s C factor in
the price decline. Furthermore, unfcvortblo conditions in our bond mrkot in
1929 made it difficult for foreign countries to a-rrnge for long-time financing
in this country, and were c. further f; ctor tending to delcy industrial recovery
-brord and to depress the world levul of commodity prices.

_/ Quoted from FedcrCl Reserve Bulletin, 16:359, Juno 1950.



"The omboda harvost'or-throshor, commonly called. the combine,
was used along the Pacific Coast for some timo prior to 1900. For years
it was usod exclusively in this district vwhcro weather conditions are
oxpocially favorable for combining the grain. At this timo it was be-
lJAoVed that the conbino .ras unsuited for harvesting wheat in localities
Whore rainfall is more or loss frequent during the lharvesting period,
'Roovor combines finally camo into limited use in the Groat Plains aroa
botwoon 1915 and 1920, and sinco then they have increased rapidly and
Oxtonsivoly and are nsw woll established..

The first combine of the Pacific Coast region was operated by
largo-sisod'towams but the combines of t'a Groat Plains region of today'.
arO usually either partially or completely operated by motor power.
The combino'has spread raiily over the small grain-producing areas and,
at present, is used to som oxtont in ovory important whoat-producing
State* Kansas was reported to bavohlrd 8,274 combines in -1926; in 1928
this ninbor had inoroasod to about 20,000, At the prosont time it is
Estimated that ono-third-of the hard winter what, about one-fifth of
the spring wheat, and a lessor amount of soft winter wheat, is harvest-
ad with the combineo

Tho improvements in:machinery have resulted ina groat saving
of labor. 'Vhon wheat was harvostod uith a sickle and.- throshoed with a
flail, frm 35 to 50 -Ltrs, of .labor wore necessary for harvesting and
throishing an acro of wheat with a yield of 15 bushels. The introduc-'
tion of the cradle. affocto& a saving of about 10 hours per..acroe At
present, fcamors in the Groat Plains usually use from 4 to 5 hours of
labor for harvesting and thrashing an acre of wheat V4ion it is harvest-
ed with a binder and t'hroshod from the shock with a stationary throshor;
from 3 to 4 hours of Irbor, when the crop is harvested with a header
and threshed with a stationary. thresher; and an average of throo-fourths
of an hour of labor when the combined harvester-thresher is used.
Stated in another way, a combined harvostor-throslImr usually harvests
and throshlos wheat at a cost of from 3 to 5 conts a bushel while thei"
cost Of threshing alone, whon :the header or binder is used, usually
S amounts to more than ton cents por bushel,." II, R. Tolloy in the Bullo-
tin of tho -Pan-Amorican Union,. Fobrua.ry, 1930.


:. .1


T1 *?. -I.$: of cafl3bi?ios

borno idea of the rapidlity of the rocont sprooAd of the combine
over this country may be gained from theo following figures giving tlbo
total number sold in the United Statqs amnally -

- 1,099
- 1,590


~. 11,e22
- 18,0o08

In 1929 it was estimated that one-third of the hard winter whoat.,
about ono-fifth of the spring wioeat, and a lesser amount of soft win-
tor wheat, was harvested vith the combine. It was ostimatod that there
woro 2,777 combines in use in Nebraska anil 20,000 in Kansas in 1929.
Indications are that there will be a further incroaso this year.

TUITED STATES: Production and exports of combines, 1925-19f9

Calendar Year : Production : Exports

Number : Number
1925 : 5,131 : 1,720
1926 : Ii;760 : 4,444
1927 : 18,307 : 4,705
1928 : .25,392 : 7,317
1929 : 35.800 11.071
Totrl96,390 29,257
Compiled from Census of Manufacturors and reports of the Bureau of Foroign
and Comostic Coramorco.'

UiTITED STATES: Exports of dombinod harvesters and threshers
to specified countries, 1925-1929.

Calendar 2Country to vrhich oxportodg
year :Russia in : Canada s Argentina : Australia c other: Total
z---- .Euroneo : ___es___ jontfribis:-;
2T, EbO : ambgor: I-urmber : n Number s gLbor :&uLbQr
:: : _,
1925 .......e : 21 : 110 : 619 : : 970 : 1,720
1926 .......: 4 a 368 : 3,637 : 97 : 358 : 4,444
1927 ......: : 819 : 3,097 : 261 a 528 : 4,705
1928 ....... 33 : 3,560 : 3,116 :3 : 605 : 7,317
1929 *......: 435 : L Z13 6.214 a 37 1,372 iI:0711

Total: 493 : 7,670 j 16.683 : 398 3.813 a29.257




Combines wore introduced into Crnrnda in 1900 but scorcoly used until
after 1923. In 1924 there were four privr.toly owned combines,,by-1926, 7.4.

Seles of Combines in th3 Prairie Provinces

Year Number

1926 .. ........ ..., ..... ..... 176
1927 ,....... a.. ... ..... .... 598
1 2G .... .... ................... 3,657
1929 ..................... ..... 3,295

In 1929 Ccandc. exported 2,/72 rocpor-threshors to '-rgentina 966,
Luatralic 362, United St-tes 1,029.

C.nnda: Imports of conbinea from the United Str.tes

Y-,r.r Number

1925 11001
1926 2,161
1927 3,949
192C 5,611
1929 7,566


s1 onall typo of one unit cmbtno, e-llod r stripper hrrvoster, of
domestic nrinufacture is in gecier.,.1 sc- in Auatrn.lic. In 1927-28 Z-ustrc.lia
imported 451 coi.binos from tho 'U.iitod Str.tos rnd E20 front Canada.


It is ostirn..tod that 5 to %O per boat of throshors sold in Argentina
nro of -Aricrn rminuf.acturo. Trao fIllorinf table shows imports of combines
*into ALgentinc.

Imports of Combinos into .rgontinr., 192G a.nd 1920

From thQ United Statos ............ 5,000
From C jc.da .................. 1,000
Other countries .......,........ 214
T A ...................... 6,214

Total ............................. 3,116


TL2'-C, ORS ,


"During tho first dcc-dj of th. 20th century the ersolino trc.ctor was
g'i:g through c dovolopncnt period -nd .t-s used by fTttors only to r. limit"to.l
-xtcnt. The first gasoline trr.ctors Terc used principally for plor.ing ctMi
discing; thuy r.ore most cor--on- in the '4io'.t B:lt. Tfo titst tractors teo
to be of rr.thar ij.rgu size since they wore usad chiefly for heavy work.
rrJl-purpose tr- actors daesigncd for cultivating, r.s rell as for plowiing amd'
Dthcr li-ht draft operations, c.-mn into limited use c.bout 1915. Since IS2O,'
Ospocir.lly within tho lrst five yer.rs, the development of the gonorrl-purpop0,
tr-ct-r hc.s buon rrpid. ii

Pr %..ction of T..-.ctors I
In 1:17, .'bout 60,000 trr:ctors -crr nirnufncturod in the United St.rtoae
T:hich v-s "i incrocse cf Lb'ut 100 por ct-nt as coup-ruod with tho turnout of "
th& prcviou4 yorr. There r-jo ,-^. i-cLvn 2,03 J0 trctors on fa.rms in the
Unltod St tjus in 1028. c.ns'r.kralu nLurbr of fr.nms, lergoly located in
thi -.oro frvcred areas in the ",hc..t Bolt, Corn Bolt, -nd the Cotton Bolt,
no,; entirely opur-tod by inutor po'ar.

Most of the types of r:.chin.,s nor in use on ferns in the United Ste-tee.i
..cro woll cstabjishod befor- theu gasline tractor nssunad a role of impor-
t.nco. Thu -xtonsivo us. of tr actorss during recant yorrs hr.s, honevor..
rosultor in l ,r-o 'chin-ry c::ning into more genorrl use. Many ftermirs ,Bvil
r .plrcod one .nd t.:o-hzrs,- i-ploncnts with lr.rge-sizo horse ir-plemenits or I
Tith tr-ctcr-opcrr.tod rrcchincs. Fcr :.core thar.n 30 ye".rs the duck-foot oulti:i
vvtor hc.s botn used to liunitod extent, at least long the3 Pncific Coast.
Recently it hr.s booeen sucssfully introduced in the Whoe-.t Bolt of the iorthbA
Grort Pl.ins vfhore it has ducro.sod the quantity )f labor needed for simuc I
fallo-ing rnd propr.ring I-nd for smrill grrins.

Scno ncv rllchinos hve- bacn developed with the incroasod use of
tractors. The throe, f.-)ur, -nd six-ro-r cultiv-tors rnd three and four
lister planter -re exrnplcs of such -achinos. The poor "Tr.ko-off" is
isc a rucont dtvolopnont of inpcrtrnce.

Docro- so in Use of Hlorse Powjr

Th incr2Lus d us. of tra.ctors together rith an even grcrtor increase
in th. uje j.' .-,t r-.cbiLis r.nd trucks hr.s resulted in r decr-ease in the number
cf h Cjs.s tan ;:uli s kopt on th; frxrs md cities of the United Strtsoa. !
During th-' past dcc'do horses -.nd i.ulLs in the Unit-d Sttoes hr.ve decreased
fr:.r ".bzut 2L,000,000 to rbjut 20,500,000 or more thnn 20 per cont. The
rcpl-ccorent cf ;.ork canirls Twith tractors, trucks, rmd autorzbiles, has
crusd sor-.e 1'n 1-adjust-_r.nt in Dur agricultural pr-.ducti.n in thrt thore nre
n-: :v; ilkblu for other uses fr.-m 20 million t) 25 irAllion r.cres of cronp
lnd .1.ich r doc. do ng-> %-ns ncdod fc.-r producing fooeed for horses rnd mules.
For excrule, producers of tirnthy hry -ho c. dcado ago hud r. well ostnb- .
lishod ::.rket f'r their ;roduco n, find it Cifficult to dispose of it at
prices sufficient to crvr production costs. -- similar situation prosate. I
itself "ith ref rancoro to orts. 0:-.t prices hrve recently declined oven
A Dru th.n prices f.r other gr.- ins. Unless nor. uses for orts and timothy

-11 -

S hay ara forthcoming it ..ill appr-rortly be nccossary f-r pr.ducers to re-
duce tho acreage of these cr:ps po-r-anontly in order to adjust prodIiction
t.j the declining dcnr d." The foregoing is quoted fron an rrticlJ by H.
R. Tollcy in th& Bulletin of tho Pcn m rican Union, Febrwrry 1030.

Tractors: United Stntos exports to specified
countries, lct25'102'9

Cr londar

: Russ

Country t r.-hich oxportod_
3in : : : *

year : in
' _:_ Europe
: Number

1.25 .......:

1926 .......

1927 .......

1 2C ....

1929 .......


6,760 :




: Ccnr.d.

: .Lrgentint : Lutralir: Other : Total

Nub-_--- : ":ciuntries:-
Nubor : Tlunbor : Ilfunbor : Nunbor : Nmunber

5,366: 4,)71 : 4,179 : 24,76C : 45,9C46

: ,320:

: 16,21L:

2 21,237:

12,2-5 : 17,078:


3,140 :

4,.C0 : 25,726 : 51,242

4,40C : 20,300 : 5C,275

4,'52 : 5,137 : 20,626 : 57,065

L.,56 :

: 3 010 : 6.,L,21: 24,3 L2

2,353 : 10,523 : 60,155

21,067 : 120,303 :273,463


Tractor salcs in Prniric Provinces


S, CC4



In 1925 thereo-o ;oro 6,000 f-rm trc.ct)rs in Argentin according to
Comeorco R.ports, June 22, 1025.


1 26
1:; 2






Russia continues to be on uncertain factor in the world wheat op
imitation. Just before the war she was the leading wheat exporting coai.
try af the world, exporting about 165 million bushels a year, or neal '
per cnt more th-n the UIite4' States at that time. during the war ant i
the revolution Russian wheat exports practically ceased but began to s w
si,3ns of revival in 1926, and in 1927 wheat exports amounted to 49 tillio J
bushels. During the last three years Russian wheat exports have& again H
Become insignificant and during the season 1928-29 Russia was actually on-
,-A import basis.

A loss of territory after the war cut Russian total wheat prodactioA
but had little effect on the surplus for export as the territory lost1 if
taken as an unit, was scarcely self sufficient. Wheat production in the -
present Russian area is somewhat above the pro-war production in the sno

The reel reason for the decrease in Russian grain exports is not ta-
to decreased production, but the explanation lies chiefly in the rapid.
expansion in Russian wheat consumption. This largg incro.es in consunptiW
is due to the rapidly incre-.sinS population and also to an increase per
capital consumption of wheat, with a shift from rye to wheat foods*

Some of the factors which have toinded to 'prevent expansion of Russian
wheat production after the revolution were: the break-up of the large
private holdings which formerly produced most of the surplus wheat,-rt ;4
the establishment of the many additional small peasant farms. The weUf
imown repressive policy adopted by the Soviet government toward the rich
peasants has discouraged surplus production and tended to make peasant l
farraing more and more self sufficient by destroying the incentive for pro-
fit from surplus production.

To offset these conditions, the Soviet government has carried on & .
intensive campaign for the collectivization of Russian peasant acriOul-
turo which included 4 per cent of the peasant households in 1929 and over,
50 per cent on March 1, 1930. This collectivization was expanded so
rapidly that proper organization could not be developed to keep up with th
movement. The sowing campaign was actually endangered in the spring of
1930 and there were numerous recessions of peasants from the collaectivI '

The prospects of Russia's becoming a competitor in the world wheat
market in the next decade will depend largely upon the success of the
agricultural policy of the Soviet government, its ability to build up 'an .
efficient farm and marketing organization of its own pattern, to pro-
vide adequate economic stimuli, as well as an improvement in technique,
and the application of scientific methods to the abundant-aturaLrl--.
sourcea existing for commercial wheat -pro3i.


The Soviet Union estimates that the population of that country will
be increased 12 per' cent from 1920 to 1933. They propose to increase the
production of farm crops by 58 per cent, and increase the grain crop 50
per cent. Modernization of agriculture, they say, will result in a 35
per cent increase in the yield per acre by 1933.

In the past
tractors and 500
built to produce
together so that
output i.croeased

five years the United States has shipped nearly 39,000
combines to Russia. In the meantime a factory is being
their own machinery. The peasants are being collected
their production activities can be controlled and their
by the use of machinery cooperatively or collectively*

RUSSIA: Acreage and production of grain crops,
averaCge 1909-1913, annual 1925-1929

Year : Wheat : Rye :
*____ 6 S



Average, 1909-1913 :

19 7....... ..........
1937.. ....... ........;
1 93B.. ........... ...
19289.......... a .*

Average, 1909-1913 Af:
1926................ .
1937..... ......... ...
1988.... .. ... .... ...
19 .9. ..... .. .....;

acres :

74,209 :








61,055 *


basheg :q



'96,018 :


Barley Oats

1,000 : 1,000
acres acres

26,193 : 41,256

15,661 : 33,284
17,897 : 39,613
17,144 45,116
17,653 : 42,625
19,958 : 46,452
1.000 1 1.000
busaheqi: bushels

418,030 : 924,918

WB,686 838;437
l5,721 :1,070,009
*6,681 : 916,976
02.l151. :1,135,369
57,579 :1,144,325

1925-1929, Compiled from Controlling Figue
8 S.R. .rt 19p29-1930. ""i
j/ Arec within present boundaries.

for the

mNational Economy of U.S.












-14- I

In the. past seven 'ep'a the'avorase United States hag beerr 824 mil ion'lashels annually. A.re&wtion of 10
per cent in this aniouhtt' tl bt lghtly over 2 million buhels.
woil toe:Bl %y oer.. 2 million busholse ;
In a ;;ear When United States r0dconris.84i1.inllion bushels, Unite d.
States fanrm prices wo-auld normally average about 40 cents Gbelow the aveas,
age levels of parcels of wheat imported into thabfited. Kingdom. A redlio-'
tion of 10 per cent, or 82 million bustilelgrin theUnited.States c ro
would normally be expected to result in. a redupion of about 72 milnir *
lbrshelp in our eportablc s-asurplus. A' red-uc:tion. of 72 mialionb'braShels In
exports would improve the-.verage of farm prices in the United StateaS'.
as compared witti world prices to tlihe extent of abou.3 t 6t cents pet bush-.f
but this wou-ld hot. bb th'e. oly effect of a reduction in:the United. St-bates
crop upon the >rices'i-u the Unite&d States. *There. would also be the
effect *apon t-ie world level of prices, and judging from such-evidence as
we now have, a reduction of 82 million bush-els in the United States crop
in aiy Jiven year Would tend to raise .-orld prices about 61 cents per
bushel. ThI.s, the total effect upon the prices received by wheat growers
of t-.is country would arao'nt to about .13 cents per bushel.
If only the iard winter wIe-it Growers were to redu-ace areaCe .by
.10 por cent, the effect upon their prices would not be as greatL-as thOute
there were a similar redaction in. the crop of all classes of wheat*. Ad-
Sever, a -substantibl off ect wo-ild be had even if the cat in acresge were
, cor-fined :to' the hrd .r zd'. winter wheat region. In: te.e yast seven yesar'
the production of hard -red winter wheat -of the UnJteqd State's ihas aWUifted
to a little over 316 rMillion Irbushels yearly and at .this .'level of p?0 o, -
tion, about 80 million rabushels are normally exportq4.aqs grain. r
duction- of- 10 per cent. in. its production would nfo3n1Day be expected .t -
result in decrease af erports of thatclass of .wheat by about'28 sailliof
bushels. Su-ch reduction in exports would improve the price of hard.
winter wheat at Kansas City as compared with the world price level by about
5.4 cents per bushel., The: eff ec 9f the 32 million bushel reduction in
world production in a sinCle year would noimailly. anoiunt to about 21 cant
per abushel. Hsnce, the total effect in ay givei year of a 10 per cent
reduction in the acruas; of hard red winter whep.t from the average levels .
of the past seven years would probably improve Kansas City prices by
nearly 0 cants per bushel.


- 15 -

In case of a pormr.nent reduction in e'rc.ge either for the United
Str-tes .rs a "holo or for tht hr.rd rod vintjr whoct crcrugo vlono, the
affect would be somnohr.t diff-rent fr-m thr.t -f tenpnrrry reducti*.
In the first pirco, a reduction of a given r niunt in tdc torld's supply
of htott, if it wore continued over z- sorias of yours -;wuld hrve greater
affect upon world prices than n reduction in a single ycur duo to low
yields or other temporary fro-ctors. The frct thet the world her's r con-
siderable crrryover of whor.t results in both snail crops r.nd Ir.rge crops
having loss effect upon prices thu.n thoy '.;-)uld if it rcre not possible
to earryovo- the ..hont fr.on one crop yorr to rnothor, thus supplementing
deficiencies of srr 11 crops -nd t'-king off the surpluses of large crops.
Consequently, r long continued increrso or decrease in the wo rld wheat
crop rr.y be expected to have r. much grortcr effect upon prices than
tho yurr-to-yorr chc.nges, and duo to this fret a long c.ntinuod decrease
in the United St.tos production .;-iuld have a grentor effect in suceEdlg ng.
years than in the first yor. IHoT-ovur, ovar r.grinst this is tn be
considered the f.ct th-t a reduction in the United Strtes -holt crop with
its tendency to raise world prices w.iuld ri.so tend to increase the
production of heart t in other countries as they would rise benefit from
the inriproved world price level, Just how frr such cm incroaso in the
production of ,.heat in other countries v;ould tend t.-, counterbalance the
effect of docreased production in the Unitud Strtos is inpossiblo to sr.y,
but it is cartrin thr.t the incrorse which night result in production of
other countries frim a decrerso in tho United Str.tcs production :would not
-.ltogother wipo out the direct affect which the decrease in United States
production rwulk hr.ve upon wJorld prices. In the case of relationship
between prices in the United St'-tos a.nd vorld prices, there would be little
3r nu tendency for r.ny chr.ngo r.s a result of long continued reducti n in
the Uhited St.-tes crop for the amount of chrngo in this sprCrd is cal-
culatod upan the relati nship between exports and thu sproe-d cnd is largely
dependent upon thu length of time during thyacarthact-Uznittd .States --prices
must be upon an export basis.

l6 :
Table 9.-- '7HEAT:.Production,, expor.ts. nd prices, by classes, 1923-1929 1

Yebr beginning :Hard red : :Hard red :Soft red r :To
July .: spring : Durum. : winter : winter : White Total
: Million : Million : Million : Milliom : Million :Million
: bushels : bushels : bushels-: bushels : bushels : bushels
1923 127 : 55: .241 272 102 797
1924 : 192 66 365 189 52 864
1925 156: 65 206 170 80 677
1926 .. 121 48 360 229 : 73 : 831
1927 ... 202 83: 317 181 95: 878
1928 : 203 : 102 : 385 : 139 : 86 : 915
1929 140: 57: 340 .190 : 80 807
:.... _Exports b
1923 2 19 27 11: 20 79
1924 21 34 121: 8 11 195
1925 ..... 5 27 10 2 19 63
1926 .2... 2 22 73: 31 28 156
1927 6 %31 65. 14 30 146
1928 ....... .. : 2 : 45 : 38 : 3 : 15 : 103
1929 ..... 2 : 12 : 55 : 3 : 18 : 90
-___ Price c/
Year beginning No. 1 dark : No. 2 : No. 2 : No. 2
July :northern spring: amber durum :hard winter : red winter
:Minneapolis : Minneapolis :Kansas City : St. Louis
Cents : Cents : Cents : Cents
1923 .. .: 124 : 106 : 105 -: 107
1924. .. 158 : 156 : 15 159:
1925 165 : 144 : 163 : 169
1926 .: 151 : 155 15 : 138
1927 141 : 132 : 5 :3 149
1928 ... .. : 126 : 113 : 112 : 139
1929 ....... 129 : 119 : 120 130

&/ stiunmtes or production by classes are based on surveys made in 1920,1923 and
1924 of the percentage of different varieties of wheat grown, supplemented by in-
vestigations and judgment of cereal specialists. All estirntes are the result of
applying percentages for each State to the production of each State as estimated
by the Division of Crop Estima.tes save that durum estimates of four States are U8M
directly. As there -re chLanges from year to year in the relative amounts of the
vuriuties of wheat groun and also ch-ingos in the relative yields per acre, these
figures should be considered to be only rough "pproxim-tions. b/ Total as report
ed by the Dep.rtment of Commerce. Distribution by classes made on basis of United
States inspections for export by ports and inspections of United States what in
the Eastern Division of Canada. cj Compiled by Division of Statistical und .
Historlinji Pesearch. Prices are average cash price per bushel weighted by car-il


- 17 -

W1HEAT: World supply, price and disappearance, 192U-21. to 1929-30



1920-21 ..:
1921-22 ...
1922-23 ...
1923-24 ...
1924-25 ...
19256-26 ..
1926-27 ..:
1927-28 ...
1928-29 ...
1929-50 d/.:

1920-21 ...
1921-22 ...
!^22-23 ...
1923-24 ,..:
1924-25 ...:
19E5-26 ...:
1926-27 ..:
1928-29 ...
1929-30 d/.

a/ Excludes
jb/ Excludes

: : : : :.. '//or Id
United 6 C 'All t 1her: world
ttes : Canada :Argentina:Australia: Eu e : produc-
States : : : : tion b/
.tion b/





: million : million n .:
: bushels : bushels
* S S





Million : LMillion
bushels : bushels :



million n

3, 225
3 435

::Averna;e n'i ce per bushel
:Stocks J/: : N *o. 2 hard
Shipments:accounted: Total : Total British : winter at
from for : supply disap- p: i'cels : Kansas City
Russia july 1 peara.ce (simple (weighted
: : :." ___average) average
____ ____ ___ ____ : average)


Lion :
siel s



Russia and

Prelimi nary.
Estimates of stocks

i million





3 536






revised to represent carryover in the United States and

supplies available for export and carryover in rn;untina, Australia, and
Canada, the United Kingdom port stocks and supplies afloat.
Not available.
Less than 500,ULO busheo.s.

f g m

"i -

"r"T"AT: Carryover nr surplus, 3uly 1, 1920 1929

S." U S :
Position 1920 1921 1922 :1923 :1924 :1925 :1926 1927 1928 :1929

:Lil. 1 Il. 1A il. Liil. 1Li 1. :Lil. 1 Lil. i:;il, 1Liil. .Lill*
bu h. : sh& biA-sh. bu sh. busshi.. bush. bush. bbush. bu sh bugh,
UW.itod States: U
Stocks on farms ... 50 57 :32 i 36 31 2; 21 27 24 45
Stocks in country : I:
mills & UcovLtors.: 36 27 29 37 37 a 25 30 22 19 40
Commercial a 1
Svi.Ab.c a/..... .: lb 10 20 29 ;9 29 16a 26 42 96
jectlt2nsmillu ..a, ( I i a) 23 25 37 uz m 48
lr tist.....(b/35*b/28 '.P3!5 O.PJ44 '.P38 9
cI.- t i:( : a 9: 7n: 1: 1: 1' 16
Total, U;ited
Status ....... 139 122 116 : 146 145 115 99 123 : .128 245

Canrda &/............: 24-: 19 42 39 uu a 4 ui a o a 114 : 125

Arontinag/ ........: 40 45 59: 4: uu : -.: &0 58: 78 1-5

Australiad/ ....... 16 44 12 ', : 23 18 15 36 Z: 8 a 5

United Kingiom -
iPort stocks ....... 11 13 9 5 0: J: 4: : :0 8
Afloat to .........: LL 16 11 a 16 I: 18 16 1 a 12 8
Continent, afloat to- 36 36 22: 26 18 : 13 22: : e 4 31
Afloat to orders .. 14 13 19 b 1UG 17 11 : 16 a 16 14

Total .......... 302 308 : 290 309 : 345 272 272 : 332 4186 589
:* U U;

N! Bradstreeoot's visible supply.
/ Unfficial.
jc xirportable surplus computed as follows:

;.u.6-b 1920-1923, carryover August

31, 1920-1923 plus net ex;orts- during July and AUi-ust. Years 1924-1929,
carryover July 31 plus not exports during July. 1930, stocks L-rch 31
less consumption, seed and exports, April .1 June 3C.
dj/ Carryover Documrnbor 31 plus exports Jul- 1 Docember 31.

- 19 -

EV/HfAT: Production, average, 1909-1913, 1923-1927, annual 1926-1930

SAverace : Average : 1930,
Country : 1909- : 1923- : 1928 : 1929 : as of
.....____ 1913 J::1927 : '_ Jul 1_
: lUOu 1,Ou : 1,000o 10 : : .,000

United States ...........: 6
Canada ....... ...........: 1.
Mlexico so ................ .: /
Guatemala *............:
!Total ...... ......:

Englaud and V/ales .......:
Scotland ...............:
NTorthern Ireland ....6...
Irish Free State ......:
Norway *.**u*..* .. .... :
Sweden ..66...... ..... :
Denriark ..........m,..:
Netherlands ..... ,....:
Belgiun .... &..... .... :
Luxer.burg .*... .... *.. .:
France ..........*..6,.:
Spain ...6 ..... ... .. :
Portugal .............:d/
Italy ..................:
T'.alta .... ....... ..6. ..:
Switzerland ..........e:
Germany ...............:
Austria ......... ......
Czoechoslovai:ia ..... u:
Hungary .................:
Yugoslavia ..............:
Greece .................:d/
Bulgaria ................:
Rumania ....... ..... ;:/
Poland .......... .. ..... :
Lithuania .............. :
Latvia .......e .........
Estonia ....... .........




iols : bushels : bushels : bushel;
)0,108: 809,6e8: 914,876: 806,5(
t7,119: 40S,7014 566,726: 299,59
LI,4Bl: 11,090: ii,031: f1,32
L20 -_ 201: 167. I
)890;_q: 1.224.673: 1.492,800: L.117,5

),b770: 52,057: 47,264: 47,4(
2,275: 2,137: 2,315: 2,1
287: 191: 183: 1
1,310; 1,111 1,186: 1,1
306: bb2: 798: 7
8,103J: 11,727: 19,1bb: 19,0
6,322: 8,529: 12,214: 11,7
4,976: 5,646: 7,336: 4,6t
l5b,199: 13,988: 17,21b: 13,2
61b: 498: 713: 3,
25,644: 278,997: 201,285: 319,8
30,446: 146,581: 119,885: 1b4,2'
11,850: 11,250: 7,546: 11,1
34,393: 210,456: 228,598: 260,6I
196: 279: 289: 2
3,314: 3,766: 4,270: 5,"'
51,274: 105,962: 141,593: 123,0'
L29813: 9,890: 12,91b: 11,5
57,879: 37,821: 51,499: 52,9
71,493: 60,558: 99.211: 74,99
32,024: 65,096: 103,294: 94,9!
16,273: 10,620: 13,085: 8,51
57,323: 34,771: 49,153: 54,94
)8,672: 96,980: 115b,b44: 101,2C
1,665.: 53,967: 59,219: 65, 8
3,264: 4,204: 6,327: 9,3;
1,475: '1,977: 2,499: 2, 3
364: 799: 1.037: 1.2t

s bushels
)8: b/ 532,469
53 11,572


84 :
6 :











Finland ***.....: 137: 079. _998;_ l.09b;:
Total ...........: !.>46. 160:"1,2> .[ 2P9: =1.405,3'6"" "l.,8.4.4, 1 4_D-_,2:



- 20

*.P2AT: Production, average, 1909-191J, 1923-1927, annual 192P-1930--Contimi

Avorts-c Aver;%e e
Country : 1909- : 1923- : 1928 1929
,Cj*I'c ,fltqrj

: 1930.;1
: .a-s of
* -- -- ll

___ ___ ._ u.J,, .,. 9 __ .. :_ !
: 1,00 : ,0 : 1,0UO : lUUU 1000
Sbushcij : bushels : bushels : bushels : bushel8 s
AFUICl *: : : :
1,:orocco .........; (17,000) 22969LJ 249746 26,088-5:.:
Alg;erin *os-. 35,161t 27,b42: o0,3029 3,3U07: 29,177i.4
Tunis .......... 6.224: 9,627: 12,125 12,309 9,006
't .... :_62_ 4228_______28
Tot'l ...........:- 92.047 98.27b" 104,469: 117.729.;_.

India .
.Thip i- .
CiMo Sun


Child, a
Argeont i
Union c
AI stral
"!(./; .". u;

AL .
..............: 3b,841 344,729 290,864 317,595. 386,94f1
.iU Lebanon u.....:. (4,000) 13,115b 6,490: 16,643:
b:........... ,6 27,b21: 30,812: 30,496.
............ ..: 6 ,do6: 9 J36 8.595.. 8.320.1
Total ........ j6J74 395 101 3315.761 372.7a: *
TotLl IT.He-:ispher: 2 7.t29 272489 2 -957.48.-" .5406. 6..0______
TT'I ? II;. PH U T* i\y T,

C 8
*........ ...... .. : 20,062: 26,628: 29,679: 37,037:
jg .............. 7 7,0b9: 22P,492: 07 ,93.62: 167,35 :
)t South Africa ...:d 6,0.: 7,307 6,693: 10,273:
ia ............... 90,497, 1J6,6041 159,6b7: 12!,669:
.lfLnd .....*.... : ..... :_ 6,J47 8.833: 7.100 _______
ot;l ............. 27U .b7 7 40b. 578: 512,224. 317 ,l 4._____
ot.Ll,4. countries Z 92.I 06d: b.362.816: 3.852,880. 3.359.6933:.

.;sT. ,sorlQ tOtal :: : : "
excl. Rilssi:i :tnd : : : :
Chinn ............: o,041,00U: .,451.000: O ,973,000: 3,459,000:
Russi; .................: 758,941: 672,671: 7913,289: 738,906:

7 Four-y7(u:.r ;'v(r:r.L;,'
] i/intjr only. Pi oduction of vrintor \vhL-t in 1929 was b7P,3b6,000 bushels.
j './inter only, -bout 99 pur cunt of thL total crop.
d On :,ua.r only.

- 21 -


II.-T: Inport duties per bushel in foreign countries j/


..ustri m ...........................
Belgium ........ ..... .......

General (from United Strttos) ....
Profcronttal (British Er.pire) ...

Maxnventiamal .........rto ...............
MItaly ... ........ ................

* Jap rl.r .. ..... .e.... ..... .. ... .. e
FrMexico *.......... ..... m ...........
Netherlc- n ds ....... .... .............
Convent icsal rc.to........
Ito ly .............................

Polrnd ..... ...... ..... .........
Ne rtugal .e.nd ..... ....... ........
oFir st triff ..... .m.. a .. ...........

PrtSwedenugal ....... ...................
First tvrjiff .... o....... ..
Second t.rriff .......... ;........
Swaden ..... o.. .... ..... ... ... .. ...
Switzorland ... ....................
United Kingdom ........... .........

Duty in Unitod States currency b_/

: Cents

c/ Frooee




,L. 34



7/Bushels of 60 pounds. b/Eoreign currency converted -t pcr rate of ex-
change except as otherv'iso stated. c/ Import license required, d/ Imports
fran the United Strt:-s enjoy minimum r:.tc, rhich is oxtondod to countries
having a most frv-rod nr.tien trocty with Czechoslovrkia. _/ Duty stated in
metallic dr-chnrs, but pryablu in stabilized paper dr.chrrs rt the rrtio of
15 prpor drachnas to 1 ictallic drnchb-r. In addlti'n t- tho duty, there are
surtaxes amounting t, throes fourths of basic duty, pryrbloe at the sane rrtio.
f/ Conversion to United St-tos currency rmado on the basis of thu rate of ex-
chrnge prevailing :n June 30, 1030. g/ Free of duty under special permit.
h/ Whoat iry be i:-ported only by authority of spoci.al decrees, which also
fix the rates of duty. i_/ _.pplies t2 imports from the United States. Surtax
on v.rho't 7 gold posetc.s per 100 kilos iequivn.lent to 36.77 cents per bushel.)
Duties -.ro paid one fourth in g'ld c.nd tho remainder in silver or Bank-notes,
plus gold surtax varying periodically;

- 22 -


Foreign cou-itrics -avo boon ir creasin; their import duties on wheat "I
-.urir: the .last few ;'c.rs, as rv-y be soon front the following .tablo:.

..'aTl: LyLort duties per 60 lb. bushel 'in specified 'countries,
on snaocifiod dz-tos- j

Duty; in United States currncy.....
Country : 1S23 : April 1929 : July 1929 : Jma 28, 1930

Cents : Cents : Cents : Cents

ItaLy........: Free : 57.73 73.54 : 86.67

2r-ico.. 30.52 : 37.44 : 53.34 : 05.35

Gtrncl^...... Free : 3. 41 -12.14 9.7,24

ST:--.csc datos do not indicate t..o daatc. on wz-ich the daty became effoctivt.

Italian Ir.:port duty on wheat

(1) Jm. 31, 1915 toJuly 241, 125:

Free: D-jty suspended cd-rinG this period. ....

(2) July 21, 1.25:

R-%tc of 7.50 Gold Lire per 100 Icilogr-ns (39.4 cents per bushel).

(3) Sctcnbo-er 13, 1923:

Ra.te cf duty increased to 11 Go-ld Lire per 1O0 Kilograns (57.70
cents per bushel).

(-1) jaj: 94. 1C;29:

Rate cof duty increased to 1-1 Gold Lire per 100 kilogrisj (73.54
cents per bushel).

(5) June 5, 1930:
R.L-.c ,f duty increased to 16.50 Gold Lire per 100 JIlogrt's (36.67
cents per bushel).

1^1 -
French import guty on heartt
1 Rate : Wquivelcnt rate in
Year d: per 100 k:iloGr.s : U.S. currency
date effective : (220.-16 Ibs.) : per bu. (50 ibs.)a/
SFrmac s Cents
April 1 ... .................... 7.00 36.00
July 4 ........................ 14.00 : 30.52
April 6 ..................... 10.20 17.24
Oct. 10 to J:a1. 1, 1927
on soft whUao.t..................: b/ 10.20 : 8.00
Jaxar2y 1 a................. 10.20 19.56
SSeptcribr 3 ................. 25.00 26.67
November 10 .................... 35.00 : 37.44
192S9: :
Mer 24. ........ 50. 00 53.34
May 22 ...................... : 00.00 35.35

Rateo obtained or verified by Foreign Tariffs Division of the B:.rcau of
?oreiL;n m.id Domestic Cor.morco, Sc:tcnmbcr 10, 1929.
J Oonvcrsions made on thie basis. of par or the rates of exchange prevailing
*.on.thlie dates when ch-an.ces in r,.tes'boccrie effective. The equivalent
of the avcrn,;e rates for any -ivon'rfonth. or year will vary according
to thle ;rcvailinm rtes of- exchanco,
/ Special decree a.uthorizinc roi-nrb-arsomnont. to millers of G Francs per 100
-ilocr"-is of the duty on soft wheat.

Ger.;-.n Ir.niort duty on wheat
T.e Ge'oman ir.riort duty on wheat '_.s been increased from 77.79 cents to
97.24 cents per bushol, under the terms of a decree issued by'the Germnemc
Govrnient to becoiue effective on .-,)ril 25, 1930, according to cb-legrv.a
received from the U. S. Agricultural Onitssioner at Berlin. This iharks the
third increase in the wheat duty so far this year under the new Gemani tariff
and cGricultur-al relief laws. The first increase becoaime effectiveon January
20, when the duty was increased from .12.14 cents to 61.59 cents per bushel,
while a second increase to 77.79 cents per bushel become effective on March 27.
These increases are made under a slidinr.j cale plan which is designed to ensure
a wheat prico of at least 260 M-rl.cks per metric ton, or $1.605 per bushel.

Year and d-.te effective : Rate per 100 idlograms :Equivalent rate in
: (220.46 lbs) :U.S.currency per .
..: : bushel
Marks dents
J ue .......... ............ ree : --
Prior to July 10.............: 5.00 32.41
July 10 .. .................. 6.50 : 42.14
Jc.n. 20.... ....... .. .......: 9.50 61.59
Mar. 27....... .............. : 12.00 77.79
April 25.,............ ......: 15.00 97.24



Unpublished estimates of cattle on farms January 1b since 1927,.
furnished Mr. C. L. Harlan of the Division of Crop and Livestock Esti- I
mates, are as follows:

Cattle: Estimated numbers on farms, January 1, 1927-1929

: Cows and -.Heifers 1-:Calves ex*.:
:Cows,heif-:heifers,2 :2 years, :cept heilf-:
Year All cattle ers and :years ard :not being :er calves : Steers tZBull s
ton Tarms : calves :over, not :kept for : being tone year vine
:milked or :milked and: milk :kept for :and over land ov
: to be :not to be: cows :milk cows 3
: milked : milked t
::Thousands Thousands : Thou sands :Thousands : Thousands : Thousagnds'hO
*; : | :||Bi
1927 : 56,832 : 30,351 : 9,304 : 2,692 : 7,383 5,750 s 1.,30
1928 : 55,676 : 30;658 : 8,903 : 2,586 : 7,115 5,074 1:340 I
1929 : 56,467 : 31,190 : 8,801 : 2,645 : 7,296 1 5,188 1,34.
1930 : 57,967 :: 32,175 : 8,984 a 2,733 : 7,518 a 5,179 1,378

Cattle numbers reached a low point in 1928 and since then the, havr I
o3en increasing. Even though about two-thirds of the increase from 1929 to
1930 was in dairy cattle, gains are shown in all classes of beef cattle
except steers. The increase in cows and heifers not boing kept for milk
production indicates a moderuto increase in beof cattle brooding herds.

A striking similarity exists between the. pro.sent situation in cattle o
numbers and that which existed in 1914, as shown by the followingE figures

All cattle on farms Januar 1 :: Cattle 6a farms other tan ilk C
: : : $ ,: iHI
em 2_ Us U a.
Year: Number Year: a Number : i Yea r a Nh*er sr a mber --t
:Thousands:: :Thou sands: :Thousands :3 a Thousands
1911 : 56,219 : 1927: 56,832 : 1911 35,396 :: 1927 1 35,031 1.
1912 : 55,022 : 1928:1/55,676 : 1912 a 34,323 : 1928 : 33,848
1913 55,833 : 1929:1/56,467 :: 1913 35,3S6 : 1929 : 34,548
1914: 58,737 : 1930:k/57,967 : 1914 38,000 ;:: 1930 /35,468:
1915 : 62,532 a: 1915 : 41,270 ::
Table 349, 1930 Y3aurbook. =
1 Revised in January, 1930.
2/ Preliminary.mm.'


r The law point in the previous cattle production cycle w".as reached in
1912 and tho increase in numbers, as shown by th.; J.nuary 1. figure, in 1913
and 1914 may be compared with that of 1929 and 1930 follovIg tho low point
of 1930.

The following compArisons of inspected cattle slaughter in the tro
periods are of value in judging vhen theo increouso in cattle production now
apparently under way will result in larger market supplies;

Inspsoted slaughter of cattle and calv2s, 1911-1915 and 1927-1929

Year : Cattle : Calves Year Cattle Calves

SThousands Thousands Tho:: ands Thousands
1911...: 7,619 2,184 :1927 9,520 4,877
1912..: 7,253 2,278 : 1928 8,467 4,680
1913...: 6,978 a 1,902 : 1929 8,324 4,489
| 1914...: 6757 1,697 :
1915.... 7,153 1,819 :

Table 361, 1930 Yeurbook.

The first reflection of increased production in market receipts during the
previous cycle was in 1915 and the downmward trend in the price cycle bogan
in thht year. Thei comparison indicates tiat the effect of increased production
on market supplies will begin to show, up in 1931. It should be noted in this
connection, however, that the increase in JAnu-iry 1 cattl-c numbers from 1913
to 1914 Was much grz-3tor th-.n that fro 1929-to 1930. Other factors will
affect the 1931 slaughter. For examnpl., if little recovery from the recent
price decline is made bfforo th end of the yc-ur and farmers ra-ct to it simi-
larly to th, wtay they hava in the past during similar price situations, many
cattle will be hold over and nm-.rktod in 1931.
The classification of cattle slawht-red, 1927-1929, is shovn belo'v:
Per cent of total ca-ttle slaughter V/
Qt's. and hcfoars Bulls aid st'.gs
1927....... 47.01 49.27 3.72
1928....... 45.34 50.78 3.88
1929....... 48.63 47.38 3.99
I/ Division of Liveostock, Mo.ts and "o0ol.
T ic tendency to withhold brooding stock from the market thau prevailed
In 1929 is also shomn by those data. Th. por cant of cows and heifeus slaughter-
Sed in 1929 wvas the smallest for jnrr 7y-rr for "which theac figures are available

EBN $K67

3 1262 08918 7347

.: : .
i : & |l '.|


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