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PAGE 1 Antecedents, Status and Future Implications 1 Richard A. Wainio Former Planning Director Panama Canal Commission PAGE 3 May 1879: Baron Godin de Lepinay Canal Lock proposal at the International Congress for Study of an Interoceanic Canal ignored. 1881 1889 Failed French effort to build sea level canal. February 1906: Chief engineer John Stevens argued for a lock type canal and convinced Roosevelt to override the advisory committee. June 1906: By vote of 36 31, the Senate approved a lock type canal. Engineers on the Isthmus immediately began work utilizing a design essentially the same in its key elements as the de Lepinay plan proposed 27 years earlier. 3 PAGE 6 1908: Decision to enlarge locks from 95 feet to 110 to accommodate largest battleship, USS Pennsylvania (98 feet); largest commercial ship, RMS Titanic, had beam of only 94 feet. Although it was a strategic decision, larger lock size increased capacity and enhanced the 6 USS Pennsylvania RMS Titanic PAGE 7 7 PAGE 10 o 1904 1914: Original construction and design o 1939 1942: Panama Canal Third Locks Project o 1945 1999: US Navy strategy/Two Ocean Navy/Angle deck aircraft carriers o 1945 1948 Sea level canal feasibility studies o 1964 1970: Interoceanic Canal Studies Commission sea level canal study o 1977: Treaty requirement to jointly study sea level canal o 1985 1993 Tripartite Canal Alternatives Study PAGE 11 11 PAGE 12 12 o accommodate Montana class battleships. o May 1942: Battleship construction was suspended in May 1942 and shortly after Third Locks Project halted. o Extensive work completed is big component of current locks expansion. Montana class battleships: Length 920 Beam 121 PAGE 15 15 o Post WWII strategic value of the Canal to the US Navy declined as angel deck aircraft carriers became the center piece of Navy strategy o 1964 1970 sea level canal studies conclusions essentially ended any serious further pursuit/interest in a sea level passage through Panama USS Forrestal First purpose built angle deck USS Antietam converted to angle deck in 1952 PAGE 19 19 SS Ideal X, 524 ft. long; 58 containers MV Emma Maersk, 1302 ft. long 13,800 containers The Container Revolution April 26, 1956 PAGE 20 20 Containerization dramatically lowered transportation costs and greatly reduced the time to market. By itself it did not create the 21 st century global economy but it was a core building block. Other factors of course played a role GATT, the Staggers Act, double stack trains, the computer, internet, large jet planes, the opening of China and the breakup of the Soviet Union. But it was containerization that allowed the creation of global supply chains, brought logistics into the commercial vocabulary, set the stage for just in time manufacturing reducing the need for large inventories, allowed globalized division of labor and set the stage for the dramatic growth in world trade and larger and larger ships. Containerization & Globalization PAGE 21 21 PAGE 22 22 PAGE 23 23 Development of West Coast Intermodal Double Stack Trains PAGE 26 FY 2010 FY 2011Ca Panama Canal Cargo by Major Segment PAGE 27 27 Six Generations of Container Ships PAGE 28 28 o 1993: Tripartite Canal Alternatives Study concludes that present Canal with planned improvements could serve traffic demand until 2020. o Internal PCC studies suggest canal capacity could be pushed to limits soon after 2010 even with planned improvements. o 1996: Regina Maersk is commissioned. First PostPanamax containership with capacity exceeding 6000 TEU. Sovereign Maersk under construction (arrived 1998) has 8000 TEU capacity. Increasingly clear more PostPanamax vessels are the future in container shipping. o 1996 : Alberto Aleman Zubieta appointed Canal Administrator. New Directions, New Vision PAGE 29 29 PAGE 30 o 1997: Expansion intentions announced at Universal Congress on Panama Canal o 1997: Canal Expansion Office established planning for expansion begins o 2005: Expansion Master Plan Completed need for and feasibility of third lane of larger locks was confirmed o 2006: Referendum in Panama provides green light for the expansion project o 2007 Construction officially begins 30 PAGE 33 Lock Chamber Length: 427 m Width: 55 m Depth: 18.3 m Vessel size LOA: 366 m Beam: 49 m Draft: 15.2 m Pacific Locks Concept Looking North 33 PAGE 40 Volumes of Dry Excavation and Dredging Used for the construction of the locks Existing locks: 200 Mm3 New locks: 155 Mm3 1886 1909 2007 2008 PAGE 41 Volume of Concrete Used for the Locks Construction Existing locks: 3.4 Mm3 New locks: 4.7 Mm3 PAGE 42 Beam 12.4 m Existing Locks Max Vessel: 4,400 New Locks Max Vessel: Dimensions of Locks and New Panamax Vessels PAGE 47 60 % Savings PAGE 48 64 Culvert Valves, 72 Conduit Valves, 16 Bypass Valves (2 Spares each). 6.5 by 4.5 m, (21 by 15 feet), 15.5 tons, 12.75 and 5.75 tons PAGE 49 Physical model first in 3D to save time during construction and optimize future potential modifications Scale 1:30 PAGE 51 SHANGHAI PANAMA CANAL NEW YORK LOS ANGELES 5699 miles 8566 miles PAGE 52 All Water 23 26 days West Coast 15 18 days Time Savings 5 11 days PAGE 53 2010 1990 1983 1976 West Coast 65% 80% 30% 15% All Water 35% 20% 70% 85% PAGE 54 46%* 63%* 4000 TEU ship 8000 TEU ship Share of the US population Assumptions $400/MT bunker Canal tolls based on 2011 proposal Current ship charter rates Inland move by rail Left of the black line = West Coast has the cost advantage Right of the black line = East Coast has the cost advantage PAGE 55 Response of West Coast ports & railroads Shipper supply chain strategies still shorter and faster via West Coast ports. Ocean carrier strategies including trans shipment and relay services Shifting global production PAGE 56 Channel and berth depths Port/terminal capacity and expansion plans Emergence of the Gulf Coast as competitive alternative PAGE 57 Source: Port Websites; CI; AAPA Seaports of the Americas; Norbridge Analysis PAGE 58 Percentage of active world fleet that has a max draft ( PAGE 59 Tampa Kingston Colon/MIT Caucedo Cartagen a Freeport Mexico South America United States 59 PAGE 60 1996: 235K TEUs 2010: 5.6 M TEUs 2011: 6.5 M TEUs 2015: 8.4 M TEUs (E) 2020: 12.4 M TEUs (E) Panama Ports Company Cristobal Colon Container Terminal Manzanillo International Terminal (MIT) Panama Ports Company Balboa PSA PAGE 61 36% 13% 4% through New York. PAGE 62 Cargo related activity at Florida seaports generates more than 550,000 jobs and contributes $66 billion in economic value to the state. The cruise industry provides 123,000 jobs and brings $6.3 billion in spending to the state. PAGE 63 63 |