World cotton prospects


Material Information

World cotton prospects
Physical Description:
v. : ; 27 cm.
United States -- Bureau of Agricultural Economics. -- Division of Statistical and Historical Research
Bureau of Agricultural Economics, Division of Statistical and Historical Research.
Place of Publication:


Subjects / Keywords:
Cotton trade -- Statistics -- Periodicals   ( lcsh )
federal government publication   ( marcgt )
statistics   ( marcgt )
periodical   ( marcgt )


Dates or Sequential Designation:
- C-133 (Oct. 1936).
General Note:
Reproduced from typewritten copy.
General Note:
Description based on: C-59 (June 1930).

Record Information

Source Institution:
University of Florida
Rights Management:
All applicable rights reserved by the source institution and holding location.
Resource Identifier:
aleph - 026660256
oclc - 30588060
lcc - HD9070.4 .Un311
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Related Items

Succeeded by:
Cotton situation
Related Items:
Statistics on cotton and related data

Full Text

Bureau of Agricultural Economics

0-104 J;le 7, 1934

(May issue)


Domestic cotton textile mill activity during May, as in April, con-

tinued relatively high as compared with most of the depression period, but

consumption during May Was, no doubt, materially below the unusually high

ltvel of May last year. With few exceptions, sales of cotton textiles for

the industry as a whole have been below production for many weeks. This

explains why the domestic mills wish to restrict production for a period of

12 weeks beginning June 4.

Cotton mill activity in foreign countries as a whole probably changed

relatively little during April and the first part of Ma.y. In Japan mill

activity reached a new high level in April and apparently continued high in

May. However, the adoption of import quotas by some of Japan's principal

customers ma: tend to reduce activity in the months ahead, although reports

indicate that the Japanose mills have rather largo quantities of unfilled

orders on hand nt present. In early May the Chinese owned mills in China

were reported as operating at about 75. percent of capacity while the

Japanese owned mills had increased their activity from 90 to 95 percent

of capacity. British mills increased their activity slightly around the

middle of .Leaj and for the month were apparently slightly more active than

a year ccrlier. The German cotton mills were much nore active in April

than a year earlier and cven more active thnn in 1928.

The final estimate of the 1933 domestic crop was placed at 13,047,000

bales of 478 pounds net, which was 130,000 blc*s less than the December

estimate. On the basis of the final estimate, stocks at the beginning of


the season and domestic consumption and exports, the supply of American

cotton remaining in. the United States on May 1 was approximately 10,300,000

bales compared with 11,900,000 bales a year earlier and an average of

5,200,000 bales for the 10 years ended 1930.

The German prohibition on the purchase of raw cotton from foreign

countries, because of the difficulty in financing foreign purchases, partly

accounts for domestic exports in April and 11ay lagging behind those of the

corresponding periods last year and the year before. German mill consump-

tion continues high, however, so that imports later on may be increased some-

what as a result of the imposed restriction.


Prices of American cotton in domestic markets declined about 1 cent
per pound from mid-April to the first of Ma;, with the average of the 10
designated ncrirkets declining from around 11-3/4 cents to 10-3/4 cents. From
May 1 to I.,ay 17, however, prices in these markets gained about 3/4 cent
averaging slightly above 11-1/2 cents. Between that date and May 29 the
average price in these markets fluctuated between 11-1/4 and 11-1/2 with
the average on the 29th 11.44 cents. The average price in the 10 markets
during M-y last year was 8.49 cents and in I.:~y 1932 the average was 5.41

During April the average price of three types of Indian cotton, Brooch,
Oomra, and Sind averaged 69.2 percent of the average of American middling
and low middling which w'.s the siane as in Hlarch, but compared with 82.1
percent in April last ye-r, 89.3 in April 1932, and was the lowest for April
with two exceptions, 1930 and 1923, in the last 15 years. On Friday, May
4, the ratio of these three types of Indian to American increased to 70.3,
on L:.oy 11 was 71.3, and on May 18 '.as 72.1.

Stocks and IMlovement

Apparent supply of American cotton in Uiitcd States

With the final innings placed at 13,047,000 bales and a carry-over
on hand in the United States on August 1 last year of 8,083,000 bales, the
total supply for domestic consumption and exports for the season was
21,130,000. Total disappearance from the United States from August 1 to
April 30, according to reports of the Burecu of the Census, amounted to
10,826,000 bales leaving an apparent supply in the United States on MaL 1
of approxiriately 10,300,000 bales.- On May 1 last year the stocks in the
United St..tes were about 11,900,000 bnlos and for the 10 years ended 1930
averaged 5,200,000 bales.



Exports of American cotton

Total exports of American cotton from the United States during April
amounted to 387,000 running bales which were the smallest for the month
since 1930, according to data from the Bureau of the Census. Trade data
on exports to May 29 indicate that exports for May are likely to be about
200,000 bales less than May last year. Part of the smaller exports may be
attributed to the German prohibition on the purchase of raw cotton which
was issued on March 21. Exports to Germany during the month amounted to
only 50,000 bales compared with 131,000 bal1s in April last year and 105,000
bales in April 1932. While the German prohibition affected exports during
April and ?.ay it may result in Geniony taking larger quantities later on
as reports indicate that the German cotton textile situation continued re-
latively favorable with mill activity higher than in 1928 when activity was
unusually high.

From AuGust 1 to April 30 total exports from the United States amounted
to 6,485,000 bales which represented a decrease of 36,000 bales compared
with the like period last season and 900,000 bales less than the unusually
large o:ports during the first three-fourths of 1931-32.

Exports of Indira and Fjntian cotton

From August 1 to May 10 r.:ports of raw cotton from India totalled
1,645,000 bales of approximately 400 pounds whereas during the corresponding
period of 1-32-33 there were 1,595,000 bales exported and in 1931-32 only
1,190,000 bales, according to data from the Commercial and Financial
Chronicle. The materially larger experts to Great Britain and to the Con-
tinent of Europe has more than offset the smaller shipments to Japan and
China (combined). During the 4 weeks ended May 10 total exports from India
were about the same as in the corresponding weeks last year, but nearly
four times as large as the small exports during the like period in 1932.

Exports from Egypt for the season to Mcy 9 totaled 1,043,000 bales
of approxinmtely 750 pounds which were 60 percent larger than a year earlier
and 23 percent larger than to the same date in 1932. During the 4 weeks
ended I.;? 9 there were 99,000 bales exported comipare.d with 57,000 and 69,000
bales respectively in the like period last season and the season before.
Exports of EEjptian cotto- to the United States for the season to May 9
totaled 67,000 bcles compared with only 31,000 and 34,000 bales during
1932-33 and 1931-32.

Textile Situation

United States

Domestic cotton mill activity during April was fully as high as in
March. However, due to the fewer working days, total consumption for the
month was slightly lower than that of March, but 9 percent larger than in
April last year. The 513,000 bales consumed in April was the largest con-
sumption for that month since 1930. Total consumption by domestic mills for
the 9 months ended April 30 amounted to 4,458,000 bales compared with
4,219,000 bales during the like period last season.



Trade reports indicate that sales and shipments of cotton goods dur-
ing April were less than production resulting in a further reduction in
unfilled orders and on increase in stocks. The same is true in general of
the situation during the first 4 weeks of May and apparently resulted in
a slight decline in the rate of activity. May activity was, however, still
high relative in most periods during the past few years, but considerably
below the high consumption during May 1933. Beginning June 4 activity in
the cotton textile industry will for a period of 12 weeks be limited to
75 percent of the 80 hours per week maxirmru which has been in force luring
most )f the criod since the Cotton Textile Code went into effect last July.
According to lata which the Cotton Textile Code Authority furnished the
IN.R.A., Lulsoll stocks of cotton cloth held by manufacturers on April 28 was
332,32,,000 y/.rds, 33 percent larger than on February 24, but somewhat less
than the average from tie fall of 1927 to December 193', if it assumed that
these lata are comparable with those formerly reles.sel by the Association
of Cotton Textile :.r,.r:'-ia;ts of IJw York. Unfilled orders on hand toward the
end of April :.;cre roporte.' at 756,000,000 yards compared with 1,138,000,000
yaris 2 mo-th:; earlier, but more th.'a twice as large as the average from
1927 to 1932 ,-s reportLi by the Associ,.tibn of Cotton Textile Merchants of
New York. Such m:-ciiic:ry as that enriaed in the proIuction of the following
products is exempt from ;he order; tire yarns or fabrics, tobacco cloths,
woven cotton blank-ts, .i.holstery and drapery fabrics, jacqunrd woven bed-
spreads, icrino ycr:is, n-~Trow fabrics made on multiple shuttle or on fly
shuttle lo.:-ns, paper drier felt, and millinery foundation cloths. Machinery
in the in-"stry us-e. for spooling, winding, reeling or skeining as a final
process to produce cotton thread really for sale as a finished article is
also exer:pt froi.i the curtailment order. Press reports indicate that trade
observers estimate that the curtailment of 25 percent in the maximum hours
the machinery may be operated will probably reduce cotton consumption only
10 to 15 percent due to the fact that some mills are exempt and other have
not been operating at a maximum.

Great Britain

Mill activity in Great Britain during April showed a slight decline
from the levels cxistii.fn in previous weeks, according to reports of the New
York CDtton Exchv-n.a. Service. Toward the eniL of April activity apparently
declined to below 70 percent of normal, but during the first part of May
increased coi.;cwn:..t. Exports of cotton cloth from Great Britain in April
amoun-tedi to 154,000,000 square yards which were the smallest for 8 months,
10 percent l:ss than in April last year and 29 percent less than in April
1932. Total exports for the 9 months ended April 30 amounted to
1,465,000,000 square yards which were 10 percent less than the 1,625,000,000
square yarls exported duringg the like period last season, but the largest
with that exception for any like period since 1929-30. Exports of cotton
cloth from Einjland should show some improvement in the future as a result
of the adoption by British colonies of import quotas on Japanese goods.

Continental Europe i/

Continental European cotton markets during April were greatly in-
fluenced by the steady and substantial decline in raw cotton prices all over
the world, and especially in the United States. The continental trade and

i/ Based largely on a report prepared by Donald F. Christy, Assistant
Agricultural Attache, at Berlin, Germany, doted May 7.


C-104 -5

spinning world is of the opinion that the recently enacted restrictive
legislation in the United States does not preclude the possibility of ex-
cessive production. At the same time the difficult foreign trade situation
in Germuiny, which nay tend to curtail the textile activity there because of
difficulty encountered in financing current imports from the proceeds of
current exports, is also believed to have contributed somewhat to the
pessimistic note already prevalent. However, the cotton textile situation
in Germany, as a whole, is good with mill activity high.

Business activity in the continental European cotton textile industry
during April showed no significant change as compared with March. Sales of
cotton yarn, cotton fabrics, and other cotton goods were about the same as
in March in central Europe. They were satisfactory in Germany, and slightly
improved in Czechoslovakia and Austria, France reported continued dull
business in cotton yarns and cotton goods, and Italy appears to be somewhat
handicapped by recent deflationary measures.

Spi .ning and weaving mill activity in central Europe was fairly well
maintained during April at the levels reached in Marrch this year. Activity
in France continued to be restricted, as a result of unsatisfactory current

Continental spinner buying of raw cotton was quiet during April, large-
ly because of the declining raw cotton prices. Price fixing, on the other
hand, took place on an extensive scale.

Continental spinner taikings of American cotton

Spinner tahlings of American cotton during the 4 weeks ended about the
middle of April amounted to 318,000 bales as compared with 404,000 bales
during th: previous 4 weoks, and only 235,000 bales during the corresponding
4 weeks last year. Total takings from the first of the season to about the
middle of April were fully 250,000 bales, or about 10 percent above those
for the same period last year.


Conditions in the German cotton textile industry during the month of
April continued favorable and reports from various parts of the country
indicate that cJcs were mostly satisfactory, although varying according to
regions. The southern Grnmanx cotton industry reported unfilled orders
sufficient to last the weaving mills at the present high rate of activity
until well into September. The temporary buying prohibition placed on cer-
tain raw materials, including cotton, toward the end of March tended to
stimulate purchases of cotton goods, but the movement did not assume un-
usual proportions.

The detailed cotton spinner report for the month of March, which is
now available, indic-ites that r.w orders r received by cotton spinning mills
continued on a sati:f-'ctory scale, so that not only th. amount of unfilled
orders or. hnd, but also actual employment was incre-s-d during the month.
In addition, some iocliie in the stckz of cotton yarn was reported. Less
favorable reports were received from the two-cylJ.ider pinning mills where
incoming orders have been slow and prices unsatisfactory. The detailed


weaver report for March indicated active sales and ant increase in unfilled
orders up to the end of the month. The improvement in business was in large
part due to a further increased demand for uniforms of various kinds.

Ac a result of the favorable developments in new business during the
past several months, mill activity in the spinning, weaving and knitting
branches remains very high. Latest figures on cotton mill activity in
Germany indicate that monthly cotton textile production ever since the middle
of last year has been considerably higher than the average monthly produc-
tion daring 1928. The latest index available is for January and shows an
ir.crc-isu of about 20 percent over January 1933.

German cotton spiner purchases of raw cotton during April were con-
fined to current requirements. Under the purchase prohibition they were
limited to such cotton (mostly owned by Bremen merchants) as was already
within German customs boundaries on the 21st of March, the date the prohibi-
tion beccac effective. Price fixing on previously made contracts, on the
other h-md, was of considerable volume during the second half of the month,
when the decline in raw cotton prices became pronounced.

The temporary buying prohibition issued on March 21, 1934, and apply-
ing to all raw cotton not yet within German boundaries, was originally
effective ju-til .Sy 5, but was extended to May 21. In the meantime, the
newly established Control Commissioner's Office at Bremen called upon all
holders of raw cotton and cotton linters to report not later than May 12,
1934, the exact amount of cotton in their possession on Mr-rch 31, 1934. Those
who did not receive direct queotionnaries, but who possessed stocks of
cotton or cotton linters for their own or for foreign account were also
obliged to report all such stocks to the Commissioner's office not later than
May 12, 1934.

In order to avoid unreasonable price increases of both raw cotton and
manufactures therefrom, the ministryy for Economic Affairs issued an ordinance
on April 21, 1934, which prohibits such price increases beyond those re-
sulting from an increase of actual costs. IMaxirum prices for raw materials,
manufactures and finished i oods were established. These maximums are the
hiihst prices obtained by the seller during the 3 weeks ended March 21,
1934, that is during the 3 weeks prior to the announcement of the buying
prohibition. If no sales were completed during that period, the price must
not exceed that level which, as the ordinInce expresses it, was justified
by the market situation on March 21. For raw materials, including cotton
and cotton linters, the prices of which are determined on world markets,
domestic si.les prices -nd quotations may be increased by amounts correspond-
ing to the increases in the prices of these raw materials on foreign markets
since IMrch 21. This idea of permitting firms to use a "replacement price"
in calculating their costs is also extended to the trading in semi-
n~ -rufa.cturcs and manufactured textile goods in so far as the costs of these
have been affected by raw material costs.

Attempts have been mnde recently to calculate the probable supplies
of raw cotton and other raw materials in Germany in order to ascertain how
long Gercman could do without the importation or purchase of the foreign
raw materials affected. As far as raw cotton is concerned, some indication
of the actual supply is given by the weekly statistics on raw cotton stocks


at Bremen and by the statistics on raw cotton stocks with German cotton
:"D)inners (Januory 31, 1931). On '.-irch 24, 1934, the approximate date when
the bu,'ing prohibition became effective, actual stocks at Breman amounted
to roughly 600,000 bales as co..ioared with about 580,000 bales on the
jq.cL date last year, and 340,000 bales on the same date 2 years ago.
Siinr.~r stocks on January 31, 1934, w.ich probably did not change
significantly from that date to the end of March were 265,000 bales as
rpn:-m.rMd '.ith ab -t 175,000 brles- on January 31, 1933, and 195,:000 bales
on Jmanl.a, 31, 1932. If we assume theze mill stocks to have been, approxi-
'.;itul;: th. sane toward the end of March, we, would arrive at the following:

Cotton sto.-Iks at Broien and at mills toward the end
of larch

Year Running bales

1932 535,000
1933 755,000
1934 865,000

Fry:. these fi-urt.s should be subtracted those cotton stocks which
are store: in Bremen for the cccount of central .EurooLan spinners outside
of Germany thou-.g the amount of this foreign owned cotton is said to be re-
lotively small. On the other h-nu., the above figures should be increased by
th>sc quacr tities of cott-. which on the dny of compilation of the statistics
were in transit within Germany. They should also be increased by those much
.orc important quantities which, up to the day of issuance of the ,buying
prohibition (and the respective actes for the previous 2 years), had been
bought by Gerr:an interests but had not yet reached Germany. These unfilled would have to include those which involved only the stipulation
of the "basis", and on which the final price fixing had been left open.
From this it can be seen that s-.e Ger-man purchases which, from the-standpoint
of the :ia.:r.:.t are real buyinMr transactions, have been r.iade since the issuance
of the buying pn'r.hibition, and will continue to be as price-fixation
on provioucly coi-inlue.i contracts is not prohibited. These price-fixations,
of course, represent real y;ing transactions as far as the market is

A cj:-.L.lete statc-.:cat of present su-plies cannot be obtained, but if
we take o..1; the Brcnern o nf the spinner stocks it may be stated that stocks
on h_L; tj.'.ard the end of :,l:rch were sufficient to last the cotton industry,
at ti_- r'.tc of mill activity prev-ilin.,- during the first half of the current
scao:io, (120,000 u--ir.-n bales per rn.nth), for 7 months, assuminr; complete
exdauztion of all stocks. S-cauld mill activity be 20 percent lower than
*lurin; th.-. except ..nally active period A-.uut to January 1933-34, the quanti-
ties ivndic,-tcC (not counting si-o:n:r and :1Cechar-t :.rd.'~ce purchases) would
cover ri-quiremAents for 8 to 9 months. Such calculations, though of value,
must be uzci with :are. Th:iiy `o not take into consideration the fact that
cpir.nrrs .i L.rcc,::Lts must keep on hand at all times a sort of. irreducable
minilmt. Th-use st.c':. are noeccsary not only from the technical viewpoint
of spinzn:r business nbt a wide choice of spot cotton mu:rt be nmirntained at
Bromen for both and other central Furopean customers. In view of
the above it is believe that Br:emen ani stocks, together with
spinner anf- merchant a.'-.uicu purchases, should equ-al at least 3 to 4 months


spinners' requirements. This does not necessarily mean, however, that
the restriction on imports will be in -orce that long.

Cz echo .

The latest report of the Czechoslovakian National Bank, in agree-
ment with the expectation expressed in our last report, indicates a fair
revival in the cotton textile industry during March and early April. As a
result of improvement in consumer demand, retail stocks gradually became
exhausted ,ndl necessitated increased wholesale buying from the factories.
This resulted in a small increase in the mill activity of cotton spinners
and weavers. The revival of sales was not confined to the domestic market,
but ext.ndud to foreign sales as well. In this connection the devaluation
of the CzcchoslovakZian currency is assumed to have played a significant part.


Reports from the Austrian textile centres indicate that the slight
improvement in the cotton textile industry indicated for March was fairly
well maintained during April. Foreign sales, however, met with increased
competition from Czechoslovalkia due to the latter's depreciated currency.


Business in the French cotton textile centers during April continued
dull, and a further restriction in cotton mill activity occurred in places.
DE.spite the depressing influence of the price declines in the raw cotton
mark-2t, business in cotton yarn and cotton cloth showed a slight revival to-
ward the end of the month and a slightly more optimistic view as to future
developments prevailed. The deflationary policy of the government, however,
continues to inspire occasional outbursts of anxiety and pessimism.


According to the latest state of trade report made to the International
Federation at .anchcester, there an increased demand for cotton yarn
during the first quarter of 1934 though conditions continued far from satis-
factory. Most spinning mills increased their activity slightly at the
beginning of 1934. On the other hand, demand for cotton goods on the home
marcot remained very unfavorable, and export business was also unsatisfactory.
Dutch exports have been placed at a considerable disadvantage not only
because of import restrictions in many foreign countries, but also because
of the relatively high international value of the Dutch currency.

I taly

The Fascist Cotton Apsociation reported to the iMnchester Federation
that during.the first quarter of 1934 the Italian cotton industry has shown
a-tnendency to maintain the position reached in 1933. Export business,
however, is greatly handicapped.

Recent newspaper information concerning the plans of a Japanese con-
sortium to grow cotton in Abyssinia aroused considerable interest in many
parts of the world, including Italy. Italy has extensive industrial and




commercial interest in Abyssinia, and. it has' been' said that the Japanese
cotton plans wo ld meet with serious Italian opposition. It is reported
that Italian circles have attempted-to get in touch with British interests
in order-to bring about ..ited opposition to those plans. The reasons
for this opposition may,: however, not lie so much''in the field of direct
interest in.Abyssinia, as in the possibility of still stronger Japanese
competition,. should Japan obtain her own source of raw material.


The Manchcster report for the first 3 months of 1934 shows that a
material improvement has taken place in the Polish industry, with spinners
better occupied than weavers. Occupation of the industry is reported as
follows: ..

(Assucmd'.to. e 4..tpercent of full: 48 hour production capacity)

SJ ; .. Jan. Feb. Mar.

Spinning industry .. 92.64 113.67 111.53
.Weaviig industry.:
.. ..,. (great -factories) 80.0 90.0

Exports of cotton yarns, pieco goods and ready-made clothing, accord-
ing to the-rcp6rt, showed considerable increases in February compared with
J january.

China /

During thc early part of May the Chinese yarn market became more
active with-increased buying reported from coast points and from the interior
with the demand for yarns above 32s.better than for coarser counts. The
improvement in the yarn market was attributed to the firmness in raw cotton
prices and to the reduction in production with the accompanying reduction
in stocks. ;The Japanese mills ar 'said to have profited most in reducing
yarn stocks and in'early May we6re agaii operating at 90 to 95 percent of.
full 'capacity. The Chinese owned mills were still running at about 75 per-
cent of capacity with their stocks still heavy.

Business in piece goods continued much on a hand to mouth basis due
to restricted demand and cautibn of banks in financing credits.

Japan 2

Cotton mill activity in Japan reached a new high during April when
the total production of yarn reached 283,000 bales of approximately 400
pounds. Yarn production in March amounted to 267,000 bales and in April
last year to 258,000 bales. Total production from August 1 to April 30

i/ Based largely on a radiogram on May 14 from Agricultural Commissioner
0. L. Davison at Shanghai.
2/ Based largely on a report from Vice Consul McConaughy at Kobc, Japan
received via radiogram from Shanghai, China on May 9.



amounted to 2,411,000 bales which was 11 percent larger than in the like
period last season and 17 percent larger than in the first three quarters
of 1931-32. In view of the import quotas on Japanese goods which the
British possessions are said to have adopted recently, it would soom that
yarn production and cotton consumption in Japan could hardly be expected
to continue at record levels much longer, although the stocks and unfilled
orders situation among the Japanese mills is said to be good. The Dutch
East Indies are also said to have set up import restriction's against Japanese

Production, Acreage, and Crop Conditions

United States

Final estimate of 1933 crop The final innings report of the
Bureau of the Census placed the 1933 crop at 13,047,000 bales.of 478 pounds
net or 500 pounds gross. This was only 1 percent less than the December
estimate of the Crop Reporting Board. The following comments were released
by the Crop Reporting Board in their crop report of May 22.

"The Crop Reporting Board, in revising statistics of acreage, yield
and production of the 1933 cotton crop, estimates the area in cultivation
in the United States on July 1 to have been 40,852,000 acres; the area
harvested, 29,978,000 acres; and the yield of lint cotton to have been 208.5
pounds per acre. The report of the Bureau of the Census, published on May
16, placed final innings for the 1933 crop at 13,047,262 equivalent 500
pound bales.

"The acreage in cotton on July 1, 1933 was approximately 11.8 percent
greater than the acreage on that date in 1932. However, the acreage left
for harvest was about 16.6 percent loss than the -creago harvested in 1932,
after allowing for acreage removed from production under Agricultural Ad-
justment Administration contracts and for subsequent abandonment on the
acreage remaining. Harvested acreage estimates for other years which are
comparable with the estimate of 29,978,000 acres harvested in 1933 are as
follows: 1932, 35,939,000 acres; 1931, 38,705,000 acres; 1930, 42,454,000
acres; 1929, 43,242,000 acres; 1928, 42,432,000 acres; 1927, 38,349,000
acres; 1926, 44,616,000 acres.

"The average yield per acre of 208.5 pounds in 1933 is the highest
yield produced in any year since 1914, with the exception of 1931. The
high average.yield is the result of unusually favorable conditions which
prevailed throughout most of the growing and harvesting season.

"The revised acreage and yield estimates for the United States are
each about one-half of 1 percent below the preliminary estimates made last
December. Final production as determined by innings is about 1 percent
below the preliminary estimate of production.

"Forecasts of cotton production made by the Crop Reporting Board
during the 1933 season and percentage comparisons with the final production
are as follows:


C-104 -11-

"August 1, 12,314,000 bales, 5.6 percent below final production;
September 1, 12,414,000 bales, 4.9 percent below; October 1, 12,885,000
bales, 1.2 percent below; November 1, 13,100,000 bales, .4 percent above;
December 1, 13,177,000 bales, 1.0 percent above. The Au.ust and September
forecasts were somewhat bclow final production, as later conditions were
unusually favorable for maturing and harvesting of cotton. The forecasts
are necessarily based upon indications at the time the reports are pre-
pared and upon the assumption that conditions after that time will be
about average."

The following report on reduction in cotton yields from stated
causes in 1933 was also released by the Crop Reporting Board on May 22.

"Reductions from full yield of cotton per acre in 1933 were much less
than usuai for each of the various causes reported by crop correspondents.
The total reduction from various causes is reported to have been only
28.6 percent of-a normal or full crop, compared with 42.7 percent reduction
reported in 1932, 27.8 percent in 1931, 47.1 percent in 1930 and 43.8
percent in 1929.

"Deficient moisture, or drought, was reported as being responsible
for 6..8 percentt reduction in, yield compared with 8,~. percent in 1932,.....
8.3 percent in 1931, and 27.7 percent in 1930. Loss from excessive mois-
ture for the Belt as a whole was relatively small, being reported at 2.6
percent, cornlared with 3.9 percent in 1932, 2.6 percent in 1931, and 2.8
percent in 1930.

"Wiile the boll weevil was the principal cause of damage in 1933,
loss from this source was bclow average. Loss by boll weevil for the
Cotton Belt proper was reported at 9.1 percent compared with 15.2 percent
in 1932, 8,3 percent in 1931, 5.0 percent in 1930, and 13.3 percent in

"'Other climatici causes, incluIing floods, frost, heat and hot winds,
were responsible for 3.7 percent against 6.1 percent in 1932, 3.5 per-
cent in 1931 and 6.3 percent in 1930. Plant diseases are reported to have
caused losses of about 2.3 percent. Loss due to insects other than boll
vwecvil was reported at 2.2 percent, which is about average.

"This statement on lose, is based upon reports of crop reporters
made in i'Mrch, on a crop dar.;i inquiry in which the reporters were asked
to report the percent of a normal yield per acre of cotton harvested the
precedling year, the percent loss in yield, and to distribute the loss to
stated causes. The resulting indicated percentages represent the con-
solidated judgment of the crop reporters and are useful as a rough index
of relative losses from the stated causes."

For details by states send for a copy of the Cotton Crop Report of
May 22.

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3 1262 08863 0339

4UIv PL |I
C-104 -12- N P

Soviet Russia I U.S DEPOSITORY

About 265,000 hectares, 655,000 acres, or 17.7 percent of the plann-
ed cotton acreage, was sown by April 20 this year in the Soviet Union as
a whole. This is about 20 percent more than at the srmje time a year ago.
Progress to date may be regarded as quite satisfactory, in view of the
fact that weather conditions in April wore not particularly favorable to
rapid sowing progress. Thus, the chief cotton producing region of the
Union, Middle Asia, complained of unusual rains which retarded ploughing
and soving. As a result, first ploughing was considerably delayed and
the discrepancy between first and second ploughing stea-lily increased,
according to a report from Ferg.anLa around the middle of April. Such
weather conditions naturally reduce the number of lays available for field
work and, therefore, necessitates nore rapid progress later on in order
to complete the campaign in cue tine. As usual, there ire numerous com-
plaints of poor or 'i.nization, particularly in respect to tractor repairs
and distribution of seeds. Frequent breaking down of tractors and con-
siderable loss of ti,-.e as a result of prolonged stoppages of machinery
owing to poorly organized field repairs, as well as poor distribution of
seeds and fuel are irpoortont factors handicapping cotton field work. Such
reports co.ic in from all cotton growing regions of the Union, but, as had
been the case during the past year, the situation seems to be most un-
satisfactory in the case of the so-cal'led "new cotton rucions" where because
of ignorance of production methods and a certain "anti-cotton" sentiment
the difficulties are reported as being particularly imposing.

I/ Based on c. report prepared by Donald F. Cnristy, Assistant Agricultural
Attache at Berlin, Germnr.y, '.ated IMo 7.

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