World cotton prospects

UNITED STATES PEPART..ITMT OF AGRICULTURE \ 'Y
Bureau of Agricultural Economics 4
'ashington \

C-79 i

WORLD COTTCOlI PROSPECTS

Su Luna ,r

Expcrts of domestic cotton continue'a duri.lg ;arch at the hihcst levels

since 191-1.5 wi-ih the ex'-p.tion of 1926-3-2 arn wer-- 53 per cent larger than

in March .931, accorliiig to the Bureau of Agric-ultural Economics. This heavy

export movement was again largely tre result of tak-ngs by Japan and China

although France tool: the largest amount for tne month of March since 1918-19.

In contrast vith the unusually large movement of American cotton, the exports

of Indian cotton during March were th, smallest for a like period for more

than twenty years. Exports of Egyptian cotton during March were hi-her than

in !.arsh last y"ar.

T esF lerge .domestic exports during .March were r-Tspcnsible for the large

decrease during the month in the supply of American cotton remaining in the

United States, as domestic consum-tion was smaller than in most recent years.

The apparent supply remaining in the United States on April 1 was still .bout

3,500,000 bales larger than a year earlier and 5,900,000 bales larger than two

years earlier.

There is little ioubt that t.ohe orll consumption of American cotton in

March was higher than in the sant period last year, since consilumption of

American cotton in the Unitei States during 1.',crch w.z about the same as last

year, and corns.u;iption in ..-any of the iin-ortar.t foreign countries larger than

a year ago. This is largely d'ue to activity in the Orient, Great Britain

and Gerrnany. In the Orient the ].ar,je amount of American cotton being consui. ed

is not so rmnch a result of increased inmill activity as it is the use of nuach

larger proportions of American cotton.








2;.e new ioh.mestic cror is no6 bcin. planted in ima2y; sections and in


other sections preparations are bcin iadc for plEnting. Atparently the

pror'ic-r,-3 are 3 sin rdlucinb their expenditres in respond,: to low prices

and in-omes. Fertilizer sales through iLarcn were tne Ic,'.'ezt for more than

a iEca-i and, sales of .or-.e- an n.mules w~re the '.o.:est since 1?9C-J1.

Prices

IC -ror.. early 1.:arch to the r:;ii-le of April prices of rmerican cotton
in com-r:.tic mr i-'ts dTclined almost 1 cent per pouni which at the levpl of
prices existicr. was equivalent to about 1.4 -pr cen-:t. The average of idlingig
7/8 in the 10 mrnr. ts on April 18 hai declinci to 5.S cents prr pound but
was still almost 1 cent per pound above the low point reache.i last October.
The cotton rr.arket during l:rch and earl," April 7as apprarer.tly dcinir.tel by
develor.m.nts in other specultive r.arl. tts anL iniustries rc.thEr than in any
develop:..;-ents in the raw cotton or cotton textile situation ringg this period.

There was an Fvn greater decline in tne Prics of I-ndian than in the price
of Axn.cricn i',rir: the period under review. Indian cotton has been getting
chearp-r relative to American al.:cst steadily since Janupry. This resulted in
the price of A-,-,erican during the first part of April averaging ti:e hi.Cist
relative to Indian since last October. rTh-' reoatr weakness ir Indian prices
during the r..t few weeks is probably explaine.i by the relative increase
in receipts of Indian cotton at om.bay-, wh-r'az exports fr!om India dropped even
fur.-'r.-- below previouss years than they" l.al been E'arlier in tti1e c:on. (See
section on E~x-orts of Inlian cotton, pa7e .) rTerite tne relative declines
in prices s of Indian cotton rec.,ntly, howe-.-er, it is still h.i-er than usual
when cy,-r.ed with American cotton.

F-_t.ur"s Thr futures markets for A-.ericar,. -ctton hav. shown a slightly
we-.-r tendency duri:.g th. past few weeks than ..ave spot prices ani as a result-
the basis (tthe difference between spots an?. f-.t',re.' is nc-" abc.:.t ac narrow
as it has b"c:-.- for many m or.ths. Around tne irile of Arril l ".' O.-Lcan spcts
:iere even selii:.. above I:.w Orlean&-. .- f..turPs. Te rong holding novmcient
L.r: 0.1out the seCc.n eni the un.us;.lly large dem;n.d from tr.n Orient for spot
cotton are i;.i ortant factors in this respr-e..

Stocks ar.- Move' r.t

Ix'.rrt' '. cf A "> "2Cr'Lc

DLoestic exports during March contir.ueli at the hihr.est levels since the
1314-15 season with the excer tion of i'13.-27, the move;.crnt for t.i mnontr
c ttalin,; :..',C.OJ3 ri-.i.g bales which was .. ,'0uO bales or 5 Ier cent l r
than 1: ring ',-'-1h .931, and was only 157,000 oales or 14 per cent smalEr than
in ..arch I.'-. T." Oripnt, particularly Ja,-),, continuess to take record
.'.cr.ts. ::ost other :r:,.ortant forei.::r. imarkts contir.nue to take larger amounts
than last season and Frs-r.rne for the first iro;ntl: t'.is season trek a larger
anr.o,-jt than ast season. The -Y7,0C0 b,.0 e exported to France in March was 50





C-79


per cent larger than a year earlier and was tne largest for the month since
the 1913-19 season. For the first eight months of the season total experts
amounted to 6,354,000 bales. This was 1)336,000 bales larger than during
the same period last season and was the largest for a like period since the
1913-14 season with the exception of 1926-27.

Exports of Inrdan cotton

Exports of cotton from India for the eight months August through March
this season were onl; about 44 per cent as large as during last season,
less than half as large as during the 1929-30 season, and were the smallest
for a like period si:-ice 1918-19. For the four weeks ended April 7 exports
from Inlia w.'ere oinl one-third as large as during the same period last year
and less thn one-fourth as large as daring the corresponding four weeks of
the 1929-30 season, and were the lowest for the month of March since sometime
prior to 1910.

The small exports have been associated with small receipts at Bombay
almost all season, b.t. during the month of March receipts were between 75 and
80 per cent as large as during the corresponding periods of the two previous
seasons whereas from August 1 to the first part of March they were consider-
ably less than half as lo.rge. The pick-up in receipts and the further decline
in exports probably explains why the prices of Indian cotton have been weaker
than those of American during the past few we- :qs.

Exports of Egyptian cotton

Exports from Alexandria, Egypt continue to run materially higher than
during last season. For the four weeks ended April 6 the movement of Egyptian
cotton to foreign countries was 19 per cent larger than a year earlier, and
from August 1 tc April 6 the movement was 21 per cent greater this season than
during 1930-31, asn was 12 per cent higher than in 1929-30, and. was the
highest since 1924-25 with the possible exception of 1928-29. Receipts at
Alexandria iivo been only about 1 per cent larger than last season, but stocks
at the be.'inniun of the season were very large and they are still, even though
exports nave been unusually large.

Visible supply of foreign cotton

On April 6 the total visible supply of foreign cotton amounted to
1,940,000 bals whicn was about 600,0i0 bales or 24 per cent less than a year
earlier, according to data obtained from the Commercial and Financial Chronicle.
Luring the four wet:-s ended April 8 the visible supply of this cotton increased
114,000 bales, whereas during the same period last year there was a 68,000
bale decre.se. Tie increase this year was due largely to the larger increase
in stocks at Bombay' luring this season than during the same period last season.
-Jiring this period last season receipts at ombej, were only about 20 per cent
larger than this ;ycar, while exports were 200 per cent larger than this year,
therefore, 3omba receipts increased more this season than last.

Apparen t stocks of Amrrican cotton i-n TTnit=~ Sta'tes

On April 1 this year the apparent supply of American cotton remaini-ing
in the United States amounted to 12,984,000 bales compared with 9,472,000





C-"? -4-

bales a year earlier, 7,076,000 bales on April 1, 1930, and was the largest
amount ever held in the United States at tr.is time of year. The decrease
in the supply remaining in the United `at t (consumption plus exports)
luring the month of March was consid-rably larger than the decrease in any
other year since 1927.. The large dlccrerse was uie to the export movement
as cons-umption was about the srr.fe as in !:::reh last year and was less than
in other recent years.

.Vorli mill stocks on January 31, 1932

The accompanying table shows te- stocks of raw cotton held by mills
on January 31, 1932 and. comparisons with year earlier in the 13 countries
ccnswuinlr the largest amount of Americ.i cotton during the first half of the
present see.son. From this it may be seen that most countries had larger
stocks of American cotton at the end of January ti.is year than a year earlier
and that the total mill stocks were 11.7 per cent larger. It should be noted,
however, that mill stocks of AmErican on January 31, 1931 were the smallest
for that period since 1925 ani that stocks this year were tnh smallest since
1925 "*.ith the exception of 1931.

:'ill stocks of Egyptian cotton at rmi"-season was considerably higher
in a large ni.:.mber of countries, but the total in all countries increase only
4,000 bales or 2 per cent. Indian cotton held by mills of the world was 16.4
per cent or 199,000 bales less on Jan .ary 31 this year than last year. This
dcre--n.e in Indian, which with a smnal. ,ccreas~ in sunlIries, was almost enough
to offsp-t the inc-rcase in American-. TT.r total stocks of all kinds was only
50,0003 bales or 1.1 per cr-nt lar-er ti-an at mid-season in 1930-3!.









Table 1.- Cotton mill stoc':s by growths, in specified countries on
hand Jan.iary 31, 1932 and percentage; change from stocks
on January 31, 1931


SA"jericn n i a1 n iyptian Sundries Total
SP- :Per-: :Per-: :Per- : :Per-
:Jan. : ceit-:Jan. : cent-: Jan.: cent-: Jan.: cent-: Jan. :cent-
: 31, : e : 31, : e : 31,: a e : 31,: age : 31,:age
:1932 :cn ge:1.-o2P changee: 1932:chn.;s:1932 :change:1932 :ch1ge
1,0 :: 000: :1,000: :1,000: :1,000:
: :run- : run- : run- :run-
:ning : Per :ning : Per :ning : Per :ning : Per :ning : Per
:boles:cent :bales: cent :bales: cent :bales: cent :bales: cent


United States ':
Japa n .......... :
Gr at. Britain...:
Germany ........ :
China 2/ .......
France .........:
Italy ..........:
Cp nh, s] o-..'2 Spai ..........:
Canada .........:
Po' an ......... :
Belgium ........:
India ..........:
All otner! .....:


1,582:+
231: +
67:+

70:+
"34:-

5D: -
26: -


58:


4.1:
68.6
5.1:
44."
66.7:

1l8.

31.6:
8.. r.
6.9
2.-. 3
6,5.7:


3?: -1 4~ :


17:+ 6.2:
103:- 14.2:
12:- 58.6:
27:- 42.6:
80:+*12.7:
62:- 29.5:
32:- 39.6:
6:- 62.5:
3:- 70.0:

1:- 66,7:
33:- 10.3:
609:- 12.2:


i9:+ 20.2: 28: 0:


Total .......:2,7i0:+ 1i. : 1,013:- 16.4:


19:+
15:+-4
19:+

1:
25:-
14 :
3:
8:
2:


- 56.8
66.7
-12.1
-35.7
0
34.2
75.0
0
14.3
0


2:+100.0
4:+100.0
19:+ 35.7


13:-
3:-
S70:+
: 13: -
200:-
20: -
: 5:-
: 3:
S 2:-


S11:-


13.3:1,631:+ 2.3


D.0:
37.3:
7.1:
20.9:
20.0:
28.6:
0:
50.0:


45.0:


33:+230.0:


352:+
186:+
195:+
351:-
241:-
1 6 3: -
62:+
39:-
64:+
11:-
106: +
693:-


25.3
4.5
15.4
4.4
23.7
4.1
3.3
9.3
6.7
35.3
12.8
5.2


38:+ 46.2: 373:+ 14.4: 519:+ 7.9
206:+ 2.0: 707:- 5.1:4,636:+ 1.1


Cv).pi; led from, reports of the International Federation of Master Cotton Spinners'
anid r.-.nufa tur,'es' As: r.ciation*
_ Tr:P 2ureau of tre Census reports mill stocks in the United States as follows,
Anfmerica, i,':'2,',C,0 r-nninArg bales, foreign 55,000 bales, all kinds, 1,637,000 bales,
2/' o r-trrn? reei',pi. Figures were estimated by the International Fed-r,-tion
fr'r. trgd. e ourc, s.


Textile Situation

Te rljdtai1 -e report of the Interniational Federation of :.aster Cotton
.pinner1s ani. isr..facturi~rs Associations has been received, which shows mill
o"orsin'ti-r. of ra'.'w colton in some 25 countries during the first half of this
sc93-sn. T7c rei:ort ,how.r that of the 24 countries which reported the use of
Ar.icarn cortt.on, 1r n-rov.'el an increase over the first half of 1930-31, and 8
reported lecre..ses. T.rre were 19 countries using Indian cotton, and 2 of
tr.-min ..rd tn- .rm-, a:.ouiit as a year earlier, 15 countries used a smaller
amount rLd 2 sno:,': an increase. Of the countries .si-., sundries cottons,
w dic i C --'les s:nt, c':ton as Rassian, Chinese, Erazilian, Peruvian, an! that


Country y


~~


~~_


-5-


:*








grvwn in all the nsall pro',ucing countries, there were 5 which reported the
ccrnsumptlon of largEr amou.nt- 12 sh',.,ed smaller consumption and 5 reported
the same .mo -lnt es inr. kit tor Jn.,z:,- 1970-"-. In the case of Egyptian
cotton there 'e .e 11 increases, 4 decre:-ses ana 5 'u.,cn-I&nd. From this
as well as from Trfble 1 ani -?ble .'' it riay be s-en that there was con-
siderable shifting from Indian anl suniries to tre use of Ameri:,_rn ind in
some countries to ELp,'p t in.

T.ble 2.- Cnian.i in cotton consumption from the first half of 1930-31
to tr.? first half of 1931-32, b'y t.,cs of cotton


Iten American Indian E:yptian Sandrie A.
kinds
:tArnber : ITunber : -llj.be r 11umbc-r : umrrber

Countries sho~iing increase 16 2 11 5 14
Countries F:ho1,oingr increase : 15 4 : 1 11
Countries sowiirg no ?nange: 0 2 : 0
Countries showing nc con-
sumption either season...: : 6 : T : 3 : 0
Total countries rpForting..: 25 : 25 25 c : 25

Compiled frori reports of the International Federation of .:aster Cotton
S.i inn-:s' and :...r.nufacturers' Association..

.~Lrn the preiiminar,' ccns3m.ption rei-ort of the International Feleration
was rele--.;e, t;e re~nrrt of Chinese Mill-owners Associfaticon giving the mill
consumption in C-nina had not been received. In tnhe report of the Federction the
estimates carrie-. fcr cctton ccnsumT.tion in Cnina for the first hl'If of the
season were as follows: Ae-;rican 250,0 )0 bales, Indian 220,000 bales, and
sundries 675,C00 bral2-. The CLir..~s .;i' lwn-r's r-c-rt showed the con1'iumtion
of these grc'/-.hs as 47L',000, 310,0.'0, ain 4g7:,0.0 bales respectively. By
accepting the I:e .:notionral F,.Aerot.ion'3 rC-ort for other countries and sub-
stituti:-.k the iLiL:..owner's r:-oort for C'-.ir', wv have compiled ra.ta in Table 2
-o.,tin. the con:-,. :u tion by growths durin-g the first half of the 1l31-32 season
and also the pre-rcenit:,e change in tn.L conriumption from tn" correspLndin& period
of 1930-31 in tne 1.C couiLtrie-s co.nu"liu" tbn larg-st amnc.int of Americn cotton.
Frtmr this it .,: be *-eei tha-t J:.ren vIa.s t.h lTargest forei ,i conu;:fer' of Aimer-
ican cotton a.l t.lat sre coc.slu~F air'.- t 50 p.er cent more American from
.X stt to Jaonurr; t ..i season thi-n Lt. Gr,.ot BritVin .who '.as tfl? S:-Ecnd largest
foreign ccn-u --:r Af A'me~ri;.v -Lurin.g tr.i. pirioi- cons.u'r.ed n 7.. per c.nt more
Arn:'rican than a c,:ar earlicr, 3Genn.e : .': .1 pl:cr cent rmor: .:.dr Cnina more than
,- times as imac'. -s irn tre first -.alf of 1'2 0-1. Indin. c som.ci alrmot A
times as -:rich Am-rinrr. as in thr li'-' ncrid last season, b.it tlat amounted only
to 69,000 bales. F. n--e wan.s ti:e mo.st imnrortant foreign consumer to i.se a
T.,:. l .er ::.ro. .n:t *-f A.-ri.cjn ter.- first h-lf of tnis s.-s.-n '-.han last.

'ith the eic--tir. of Ir.dio roi Cr-.ina ll ccnsuming, countries iiuce less
Inriian cotton ,rn._- the fir-+ r.cnLf of this s.:-,.on tfhen r yEar earlier and as
a result the wor-J t- tc .ecre.-...-; i "-.. -er cent or .199,C"O' b.les. ;.Inst conm-
tries :l?,-,ed i i. r-.:- in 1 -. ?:.o. inr of E typti ~n cotton. cons'umed, javi t.ile
total incre- Sr- ;. .: pr cent. M'..:, c... tri f s snifte. from the consum:'tion of
s.ndrles which, in .: ..-n.r.r-s :.. i i.L part to smaller crops cf sundries.






-7-


Table 3.- Cotton: Consumption by gro'jths in specified countries, six months
ended Janur-ry 31,19382 Lnd percentage chaniig from corresponding period
in 1930-:3!
: --- ri ------. : iTiia.n : Egtian : Sndri es -: SnreTotal

Six : :'Six :Six :Six : :Six
Per- Per- Per- Per- Per-
ountry :months: c :r months; :months: P :months: P :months: c-
cent- cent- con, ccnt- cent-
: :ended c nd : c :nt-nded co-endcd : nt-onded :
:Jan.31: ago : Jan.31 age ;Jan. *: ago Ja.31: 'gc :Jan.31: ago
c:1 hango :1y32 q cn1 .n.":e :change 1932 cfango
:1,03J O2:1,000 : :1,00Q2 :1,000 :1"000
----.- ... --. ..- ..... ooo --- 1 oo ooo ~ loo,,$ .. ........

:r'ui- : Por :run- : Per :run- : Per un- :run- : Per
;nins : : ni ng: :nin : nin :
:balos : cent :bales : cent :bales : cent :bales : cnt :bales : cent

Unite :
Stats 1/ : 2,563: +8.0: 12: -45.5: 26: -25.7: 15: -25.0: 2,621: +6.8
Japan .. 630: +47.9: 719: -4.8: 23: +55.3: 24: -46.7: 1,396: +12.5
Grcat Britain: 609: +23.5: 130: -0.8: 152: +34.j: 321: +34.5: 1,212: +24.2
Germany .: 437: +20.1: 81: -30.2: 44- +22.2: 61: +52.5: 623: +12.1
China 2 : 432:+163.4: 310: +11.5: 4: +33.3: 467: -36.5: 1,213: + 2.8
France : 30: -17.0 90: -25.6: 60: +22.4: 38: -29.6: 496: -16.6
Italy .: 264: +10.0: 96: -20.0: 29: +31.8: 11: 0: 400: + 1.8
Czccho- : : : : : : :
slovaka : 139: 4.8 23: -54.9: 13: +30.0: 10: 0: 185: -14.7
Spain : 125: +14.7: 30: -30.2: 24: 0: 7: -69.6: "186: 6.5
Canada : 104: +14.3: 5: 0: : 109: +13.5
Poland : 79: -14.1: 7: -46.2: 4: -20.0: 2: -81.8: 92: -24.0
Belgium 77 +10.0: 62: -21.5: 3: -25.0: 34: 8.1: 176: 7.4
India .: 69:+475.0: 1,175: + 2.0: 26: +52.9: 63: + 6.8: 1,333: + 7.5
All others : 231: -13.0: 79: -40.2: 72: +28.6: 1,060: -11.3: 1,492: -12.5

Total / : 6,122: +16.0: 2,814: 6.6: 485: +23.1: 2,113: -14.8:11,534: + 3.3


Co:npiled from, R-ports of the International Foijration of iiMastor Cotton Spinners' and
LTnufr.cturcrs' associationss except as noted.

1/ The Eure-... of th: Census reports Consvum-tion in the United States for the six
roniths ended Ja'nuary 1, 193.'3 .s follows: 'Amrican 2,568,000 running b 'los;
Forcici 63,000 b..losL All kinds 2,631,000 bales.

2/ Consumption for six months ended January 31, 1932 .re ostim-tes of the Chinese
M.ill Ov,.nor's Association, which was not released in time for use in the Intern.ation:
Federation's prclinin-.rDy rc-port.

3/ Those totals incluid the estimate of the Chinese Hill Owner's Association
for Chi.r..





C-79


United States

During MTarch domestic .-ills consumed about 489,000 running bales of raw
cotton which was an increase -f 39,000 bales or 8.7 per cent over February which
was, abo,'t equal to the usual seasonal increase. Ti.e :arch consumption last year
a-m.ountei to 491,000 bales. :For the season to the e:d of I.arch, total consumption
aiountmed to 3,570,000 bales co,.mared with 3,384,000 b._les iuring3 the same period
last season which means an increase of 5.5 per cent. Compared with the same period
in the. 1929-30 season, ho:/ever, there was a decrease of 17.3 per cent. Due to
the s.;!aller consumption. of foreign cotton during "arch this year corapared ,iith
last, tie consumption of American cotton was slightly larger than iln 'L-.rch 1931.
To Aril 1 this season cons-u.ption of Anericai cotto:., i;l the United States has beer.
6.8 per cent or 221,000 bales larer than during t.:e stane period last season.

In the domestic cotton cloth industry developments were less favorable
iurli'f I.:arch than during the previous months. During previous months sales of clot
have held up fairly well and, although some increase in production had taken pl~ice,
there wIss a downward trend in stocks. In MIarch, however, sales cell to the lowest
levels in many months. Production and shipm ernts decreased only sli htl:, and .s a
result stocks increased 8.2 .er cent and unfilled orders decreased 26.4 per cent.

Great Britain

The cotton textile situation in Great Britain is apparently maintaining its
ir.iproved condition, Forwardings of raw cotton to British mills during recent
weeks have been larger than a year ago, and for the two woaks ended April 15 wore
the lar-os% for the corresponding woeks since 1929. Piece goods exports during
archh sho'7cd more than the usual seasonal increase over February and the 202.6
mnillio; square.yrards exported were the largest for any month since .cay 1930 and
.-iere 48.5 per c.nt larger than in i~rcn 12:'1. Although yarn exports in March
.vcro only slightly above Fobruar:, they wore the lar'eat for March since 1928 and
were 28.7 per cent lar~ -r t.hai :. --er arlicr. Rc o;rts indica.t that home trade
for British textiles is fairly satisfactory.

o-ontincntil Euro.c 1./

The Continental cotton tex:tile situation sho .o temporary soc-son-l i.mprovo-
ment in the first half of Marc .:, "..:hci mills sales, riw bum-in, an'd price-fixing
increased, but Gavea way to crr '.l. dullness in tihe second half o:n the dcclins in
cotton on American markets. The critical condition of business, generally, nd
tL' rent aggravation of fir:i.ci.Ll iifficiltics in central 2urope have continued
to prevent an 2erly or real i:cprovemcnt in the continental ou'floo : for cotton
textiles, althou-;h the reduction. of goods stocks has causci occasional flurries
of buy i i.'
Si 21.z' largelyy on a rr.-nort fi'r.n A.ricul't.url 7Att ache L.V.Ster at 3Brlin,d-tte-d
.. ril 13,1"32, supplemented by cable April 21.






.C-79 -9-

The .arch reports from individual cotutries indicated for France fair imprO~,
ment in both yarn and cloth orders early in the month followed by quietness there-
after. Lower Am..rican prices, and rumors of FArr. Board intention to dispose of
cotton holdings were factors in the duller trend. Italy experienced somewhat
better interest on both il.rna and cloth during most of the month, and Gormany also
maintained, at least in the early weeks, the slight revival evident in mill
business during February. Czechoslovakia, Austria a;'L. Hul -Lary felt only. a slight
seasonal pick-up, but in Hungary the mills are benefitinL from restrictions on
imports. Business was generally quiet in Belgium, Poland reported slow demand,
but more optimism toward seasonal i.mp'rovoment.

Spinning and leavingg mill activityt y over nost of the Continent s:oo.vid some
seasonal recovery during L..rch, follo'ving the quieter tendecy. during January and
F-bruary. Improvo.nent has been most noticeable in western 2urope and Italy, but
fwas L.lso evident to some extent in central Europe. Spinner buying of raw cotton
during Tarch was of fair volume in western Europe, but restricted in central
Euro'pe and Italy, though a fair amount of price-fixing was reported virtually
throughout the month from nearly all continental countries.

Egyprtian Government sales of cotton on credit

Considerable attention has been directed in continental cotton circles to
th.e recent negotiations by the Egyptian Government for the sale of E..'tian cotton
on credit to some of the central European countries. According to press reports,
representatives of Czechoslovakian cotton spinning g mills have had negotiations ,ith.
tie Egyptian Government for purchases on the basis of six months credit, with the
c'e.lits to be paid, on maturity, in Czechoslovakian currency. TPr de reports .have
been quite sanguaine of the negotiations resulting in a definite agreement. Hitherto
Czechovakiani purchases of .Egptian cotton have usually been paid for through three
months' bank reimbursement credit on London.

Trade reports also indicate that similar negotiations are in progress
between Egypt and Ausitria. Austria is reported as desiring to buy from 10,000 to
20,:1',D ales of Egyptian cotton, which would be paid for by Austrian Government
bonds due for redemption in two -.ears in dollars or pounds. Trade reports to
1dte intim.ate that it is almost a foregone conclusion that negotiations will
acu.i.ally be successful, with deliveries to start during the month of April.
Similar negotiations are also -reported for Hungary, to whose mills the -Eyptian
Gov-vrnment made certain sales of cotton in the fall on long-term credits -able
in pengos.

Continental spinner takinvgs

Continental spinner tak:inr of American cotton, whidishowed an unusual
.idvLnce during g the four weeks enled February 20, have subsequently declined,
thoul'h still holding above corresponding figures' last y--r. Takings during the
f-ur weeks end-.d March 20, 19'7, amounted to 294,000 bales as compare. with
415,00 '.r: the four wLes preceding, and 283,000 in the four weeks ended J n,. r'
-23. Th re.)ve.n..t of ta!:i:, s from arch 20 into the early part of Aril indicates
t'iat so!me increase mn-y again occur luring the current month, unless a significant
drop takes p i3 c soon. The improvement in continental takin.r-s since the end of
thn calendar ye''.r is stri:ki-.,l indi'-.ted by the fact that wharors total American
Imovoeirnt into spinners' ha.rls from August 1 to the edi of Decu mber, 1951, was





0-79 -

about 270,000 bales below la-st -,ear, the total has now reached a point about
equal to takings lurinj the same period last season .nd there are some prospects
that the movement during the remaiiLier of the season -vill exceed that of last
sc Con.

Ger..i.any

The small seasonal revival in orders experienced by various sections of the
German cotton spinnin,G inriustry during February ap.3aro, o. t'Ie basis of pre-
liriinc.rj reports, to have been maintained or slii.tl. imn-.o'ovei upon during Ikrch,
altlhou&gh information from certain centers continues "essi.liistic. Recent bookings,
however, have been generally of a short-term c'-aract.:r, an orders 'iave been
placed only with price concessions. Competition .t :ome as vell as Iro.n abroad
continued keen, with markets under persistent pressure fro,, Lritish co.:petition,
notably in fine count yarns. Czechoslovak ian offers ore also giving difficulty.
x.'crt business remained very poor, although a faw goc'1l transactions for export
were made b- textile distributors, notably to C'.ina.

Activity in German cotton textile, mills ap;.e-rs to ha.Vc undergone sane
seasonal pick-up during Ifarch, but improvement was -:t lar c and reflected no real
change in the situation, as the weakness of raw :.lntrial prices in recent weeks
had a visibly dampening influence upon cotton trade scnti.'.,ent.

,.Tile present conditions in the German cotton industry, in both the
spinning anl weavin branches, are not at all s..tisf:.ctory, it should not be over-
looked that there was a rather remarkable pick-u? in the voLc-LL.- of operations
durin- the fall and winter monthsh s and that output subsjqucntiy has b.2cn reasonr.bly
well maintained, considering the numerous and import .nt L-.:ndicars -vith whichc h
the industry has had to str-,xgle. SpiiLing mill cictivity increased r about 20 pr
cent during the course of 1931, althougL it is true a drop of .'cbout 12 per c-3nt
c-curred in January iC..2. Cloth mills increased their operations in 1931 by
ac.-t 25 per cent, with a recession of 10 per cent occurring in Janunry of this
year.

The situation is not too bright, judgir.j fr.n recent icvolopm-nts in
o::-ort trade, -ars w ll as internal conditions. T ;.orts D: cotton goods have
Irvpr.d ?'ff sh-arply in the "..st few months, particularly sirc t-i,1 tvi.rn of the
year, due, to no little extent, to a lack of or-lers from Scandinavia, Engl-.nd
a:ii the United States. At tbe s-t:1.o time, imports :f cotton y:-rn I .vo risen
materially, and a.r. now: considerably above last y.--r. Those dovlopr.icnts hevo
i ,alo tho in:fustry .r; uncTas: and concerted action is bein-;, adv.c.t.d for
the "in-ranco of imports and the encroura-oemcnt of nm:ort busi;ncsos.

Spinner buying of raw cotton at Promen 'ns r2l.-'tiv'ly aoi..t during 3larch,
altho-.irh the volume was fair in the first part of th.; ion:th. "..'cakonin.T prices
ani tr...da r-ur,-rs about possible Farm Board sales )f '-ottcn holi'nigs .izt-rially
dlia-e...d, interest later in the i...nth. The volu' -c of "ricc-fi:.:irs, on the other
L-..1:', :~as quite important i.rirn, 7.arcn, tho-au' the str.i.:.t:. of th.. "b.sis"
caused the dovelo;u-: tt ?-- r oluctance te''...rds n.;.' c '.iiitl..ntr bi norchants -,ind
.r, .anor s.





C-79


Cz.choslovakia

A certain slight seasonal pick-up in sales by Czechoslovakian cotton mills
and weaving establish:.ients has recently been reported by trade observers, but
the basic situation of the cotton industry nonetheless continues quite unfavor-
able, principall- because of much restricted export outlets. Spinning and
weaving mill activity, it is true, advanced slightly in February and March
following the sharp decline in January, but the pick-up was purely seasonal ?-nd
-,robably less than.the normal revival in those months. The future trend of
activity and raw cotton cons'u.mtion continues very uncertain but does not now
promise to show material change in the immediAte future.

The Czechoslovakian textile industry, leaving nothing undone to maintain
its competitive position in the export market, has recently been seeking to
secure reductions in prices of products used in textile production where
export goods are concerned.

Austria

A certain seasonal inc-ease in orders for cotton yarn and cloth is
reported froM Austria in recent weeks, but the pick-up is fully within the
limits of the revival usually experienced at this tine of the year. It remains
to be seen whether the impro.':em.nnt will be long maintained. It is still uncertain
to what extent the improvement in orders has been reflected in mill activity,
but a moderate stimulation seems probable following the heavy drop in operations
in January, W.hich had been proc12cd by rising activity in the closing months
of 1931.

As time passes, it ap?.ears that Austria's relatively heavy imports of
raw cotton in the past few months were due to anxiety about possible further
restriction of currency allolients for raw material purchases, as well as
uncertainty about the stability of the shilling. The opinion has certainly been
held in some quarters that raw material .7-13 a better form of investment than a
currency account.

Austrian reports continue to reflect concern about the possible hampering
of .-iill operations by further restrictions in currcnc an outlook which
undoubtedly increases Austria's interest in current negotiations with the
2Eyptian Government for the delivery of cotton on long-term credits.

France

Contrary to the continued pessimistic reports on new business for cotton
spinners and w'.eavers in Fr.ace during past months, early March reports for the
first time in many weeks evirce a scmew..-at more hopeful view, as a result of
larger sales of cotton yarn rjnd cotton goods reportcl from all important textile
centers of the country. It is oven reported that the revival in sales has
enabled a certain reduction in yarn and goods stocks. During the second half
of the month, however, this !Lovint '. as halted as a result of the usual holidr
quietness around Easter, the break in raw cotton prices in ITcw York, and rumors
of impending sales of Farm Board holdings.


-11-





-12-


French statistics on the .ocition of the s.Jiin'-i and .leaving mills show
tUlat an im- movement in business is urgently neede:I. Theo- rcvel a picture of
d.'-.re3slon of a severity almost unkno..',: in FrAnce, where 2conor.ic nove.nants as
a rule are quite conservative SpianLing mill -ctivity, urin,_ the winter months
declined to about 60 per cent, und unfilled yarn orders to only about G6 per
cent of those in previous years, '"viile yarn stocks per spi..dle ;ere about 30 per
c'r:t hi_-.er. The picture lifforei little in the. case of ':-eapvirg -ills, where
activity during the winter :.cjtrhs was only about 70 .'1r c-nt, and unfilled orders
a. out 60 oper cernt of last '-.r, but stocks 30 per cent '.i .er.

The development of the trade in cotton has also been strikir.n, as raw
cotton imn.orts fror- the first of the season to the enl. of Januar- were only 35
per cent of those of last year, or the previous fewv y-.rs. Ra:w stocks in France,
the-rofore, appear to be very lo'.; and in need of au-mentatioi-. In fact, an
i:.:rovenmcnt in raw cotton buyi:i: ',:'.s registered during the ..ionth of :arch and a
gocil:- cmout of price-fi::in- was also reported, thou'.h around the Easter
holidays business quieted, partially as a rsu..lt jf the declijiin.-- raw market.
It is rn,-srted that the Ey-.:tian Government is also en.iceavoring to :n.C',c cotton
sales to -rince, ,possibly on a crelit basis, and that considerable trans-.ctions
are exjectel-. These reports, however, lack confirmation .

Ital

The Italian cotton mill situation sho's ccantin L.e'd grr.dual improvement.
Although raw cotton p rchzses of spinners and merchant's ':ero very smil and with-
out much encouragement from raw :..arket developments during ..;rch, a good flo.v
of yarn and fslbrics business was registered in the i'v).ortant textile centers of
the country.

'i;' current statistics, on the whole, show that a siight but gradual
i.npro-:: l.t has been ta'-:i place. iiill conz~u.n1.ti.n of raw cotton is r'.jning
abova last year, and the ratio of yarn sales to curr_ t u-.itp.t o t has been favor-
able ever since the end of. October. As a rcs..lt of t.,ese developi.cnts, stocks
have declined stead- ly and are nor:' considerably bclo-1. last yc'.r, :.nd cvon below
1i29 .'i 19'I.. Unfillei :.r.: orirsz are in:lic itei to -.e acov.: l.st year's to
the e::t:nt of 10 to 15 per cent, althorv,;. sti l oelow 1' l: a nrd 1:'30 bookings.
!i,1 activity in recent weeks has lluen maintained ina: t:.. l.-vol of last ye-r
at this time. Raw cotton imports from the first o. the season t-: t'. end of
D:.s..'|'L 'are ailout the same as a y:-ir ago, but much belo-.w taosS of -.revious


S .-i '.

Early March reports froi Barcelona in' ic .tc th'-. e St- v-i--h cotton
i iv.u:r.z- has o::porionced a considrcelle exp.miLo:. -c~r .. -rt ye.-r. Tih
equil'..:.nt of the irdus.try, mcreovrr, is report.:., to '.:. v .-; .: ,rn .'ith 20 per
cent of -rolu.iction fall i:-; to mule spindles.

At the same time, reports were issued o0. th, .,ro'.ir.5 of cotton in Spain.
AccorvI -'.' to those reports, the Goverrr.int initon. s to ros:-rvel aiout 2?7,000
acres :f ].lnd for the groin, of cotton within th, r.oxt five yc rs, in the
provinces of Sevilla, Cordoba, C .liz, ::iluGa, Gran: d:, 1AlrorL:, Toledo, Huelva,
.B.aajoz and Cacor j. The canitoa n..-lod is to be rp'.2lc i 'artl2. by the


C-79








Govrerrnmeint, and partly by the industrial credit banks, with re eriiption within
ten years.

Hunlgary:

Recent reports from i,.dapsest indicate that textile imports into Ilunrgary
ha v been- reduced considerably as a result of' the Czechoslovakian-Hungarian
tariff :-n.r anid the severe for-oi,,n currency restrictions. C.-owarian cotton textile
mills, t.ierefore, are now very well occupied. It is, however, feared that
:ir.%ainent tro-lee in obtai.iin- currency, even for ra:' materi-ls, .na.y chance the
picture. The Egyptian Governmaent, vhich had previously su.-plied raw- cotton,
is reporte. to have offered to make deliveries against payment in Hungarian
currency, but the spinnirnv mills hesitate to accumul. te ra-.7 material, as the
generall situation seems too uncertain and domestic consu.:l-tion is declini.-:.

Russ ia

Cotto.i fabrics production in February amount to 2'-.53 million yards
:.:d :.ras .6 per cent above that of the preceiin" month, b.t still considerably
belo- t.'.e sm e month in 1930 ?.:.-i 129, 1nd only slightly L.bo-vo that in 1923.
Total output of finished fabrics during the first two months of the current
.:.r is reported at 11 per cent abo-v that of lrst year, but the plan called
for a l.cre-r increase than. -i.s actually attained; the non-execution of the plan
a,:.0outed' to D.bout 8 per cant. Yarn production develope.. so.:.o-.h.t more favorably
as cor.ipareld .-ith the plan, the total output in 'oebru.r havir amounted to 27.6
thousand tons or 94.5 per cent of the plan, as compared with the 91.5 per cent
of the plan completed in the case of cotton fabrics.

The 3sam tendencies in cotton yarn and fabric production continuol during
th'e first three -.i eks of 1a1rch, preliminary figures indicating that 81.3 per
cent cf the plan was produced in the case of fabrics comp.-.'cd -:ith 89.2 in tho
case of yarn. The aI,-; in fabrics production is reported to have led to a
consid'3rable accumul-tion of yarn stocks in the hands of the mills. Irregular
rand Lu-timely delivery of reaw material and fuel to the clot:" mills and inability
to coordin-,to the work of the different enterprises is complained of by the
So-1i t press.

On basis of the above fi uvres, it seems that the quarterly plan(Janunr---
i'.crch) for finished fabric production will not be completed by about 13 per
cjnt; lao in yarn production as compared with the plan is also likely,
aLthou .h to a smaller exton.t thai in the case of finished 3oods.

-. recent article in economic c Lif" indicated tht imports of foroi:;n
cotton c'ro,, all sources during the first six months of 1951 amounted to the
cqt ivaljnt of 55,000 bales of 478 pounds as compared w..ith 267,000 bales for
the -.iholc of 1930 I/; it a-pu.irs, however, that imports of .'jirican cotton
:.'-rC nil, or practically nil, -v/ith almost all of the imports consisting of
s3p',3..1 ty;cs of cotton.

1 A coi oarablo fig-uru for th first hal of o193C iss :.lot vail-'ble.


,1 n(
y^- i


-13-





C-79 -14-



Yarn y.ro-2lction in Japan during FE.br&ary a-mounted to 23'4,000 bales
of 1abo-t 4Lj -;ouints each corn -arcd '- ith .i 9,0C0 bales in January, a-:d 193,000
bales in 'obi.ary C1~31. Tris re':rtsents an increase of 2.2 per cent over
Jea.lary and 18.2 per cent increase over Febru.ry 19"31, according to data re-
ceived from Consul Donovan at ;:obe. Exports of piece gocds during Fcbr::ary
sa..o-uited to 108.2 million square yards which were 19.0 millionn q-iare yards
or "..3 per cent larger than the -r.evious month an-. 42.1 Cer cent larger than
in Dece.'er. This ar-,tarently indicates that the effectivenrers of the Chinese
ocy:=utt of Japanese ,oods was .ccr.asinj at that time, and reports indicate
that sincc February the boycott has been even less effective. Althougn yarn
.xport. r -,resent only a small factor in the Jarn and .general textile situation
in Ja:an, it has been observed that I.ring February exports of yarn totaled
arcut 5,C000 a.-,es, an increase of 76 .er cent over Janua-ry and 142 per cent
over February 13.31. Cotton yarn stocks in Ja-: an i:.cressed considtera'L'ly during
the pat fw': ior.ths which was probably a result of the small ex-orts of piece
goods which doubtless rred.ced the production of cotton clotil or piece Joods.

Fn-mn Fcbrary 22 to March 22 A;i.e'ican so4t cotto-n (ieclined 4. per
cent, while Indian cotton declined 6.5 ;er cent, but the rrice parity still
favors the use of American cotton. Tir largr stocks and the dlelinin prices
of raw cotton ".'ere reported as having caused active bu.,ing of cotton to cease.

I.r.ports of cotton into Japan .iurlr. Febr-uar-y r.nc;inteA to 791,000 bales
which was :. per cent iar-er than in Januar;. ard: 4A per cent. arger than in
Febr.-ary 1'E,-31. re-ce heavy imports include:! some cotton wvhicn was diverted
from Shar-.hti to J-.p.an due to the contested conditions in Shanghai.

China

Chinese and British cotton mills in Shanghai are nov operating near
normal cEapacity, according to a recent cable from Agricultural Ccmnizsioner
Dawsohr at Sha-.~-hai. Abo-i.t 8 pr cent of the workers in Japanese mills iave
been reemploy-,' for cleanir. up mills preparatory to the :easum!tion of regular
acti-.ity later, but not i.'n.ch in crrcas is expectc-d to tar7e place tni.s r.onth.

.i:j.s in China a., a whole have born operation at a rathFr niLr. rat. this
season and durir.g the first balf of the season all mills in China con.-mr.ed
abc.:t 1,213,000 bal- which was 2.8 per cent more than in tre li.-:e -crioi last
s-7son, 11.0 per. cent larger than the season before and was the largest amIount
on record for that period. Ccn,.:-,. tion of Americrn increased more tihan two
ai one-half tiLes,, the total for the half-year being 42',C00 bales, by: far
the lar.-.-tt 'nmo-nt *-'v-r consumer in China during any six Iont.hs period, accord-
Ir- to the delay-i r.-~iort of the Chinese :.;ill-ownerl's Association. Tni-
r-,.crt show=- an 11.5 per cent inr.rtease in the consumption of Indian cotton,
L.t I e to the -.ll c- I'uly of native grown cotton there wI~j a :nqterial
decrease (36.5 per cent) in the amount of Chinese cotton cor.r.ic1i.

Socks of yarn in Shanghai about the mi idle of April were not heavy
bit -r-.r~n from ou-tsiie w'as not active. Yarn ha, decreased in price luring
the prevlo ms ;month, but no r ~el.ar quotations were available at mid-April,
for the cotton and yarn exchange hai not reop'rner.l. Durin. the firct a'art of






C-79 -15-

April there was renewed interest in Chinese cotton twine arid certain purchases
were re..:crt i to have been reade for use in Shanghai mills. 'eliveries of
American cotton to Cr.inese mills were still being har.pcrei by abnormal
functio-.irn;o of native banks but the situation is said to have improved.

7 '." imports of raw cotton at Sr.al;.hji during the first tr.rc? months of
1932 ap.-arently reflect the seriousness of congested conditions aro:un that
important center during February when hostilities were perhai'ss at their
;nxi:mur. During January imports of America cotton at Shanghai amounted to
about 1c',000 bales of -48 pounds, but in February dropped to 26,000 b'.les
ani in March advanced back to 44,000 bales. Imports of Indian cotton dropped
from 2c.,000 bales in January to 2,000 in February and advanced to 3,000 in March.

Production, AcreaEge and Crop Coni:itior.

United States

The 1932 cotton crop is now getting under way. Some coztnn has been
planted as far north as southeastern North Carolina, southern Arkansas and
north central Texas. In other sections preparations are being made for the
new crop and from all indications the producers are again reducing their expendi-
tures in re-ponse to low prices and incomes. This is being reflected particular-
ly in the amount of fertilizer being sold in the Southern States. In addition
the cotton farmers who made considerable shifts to food and feed crops last
year evidently found it to their advanta-e and have inliicated their intei.tions
of f:rth!:r incr-e.sing the acreage in such crops this year. During !iarch sales
of fertilizer tas in the eight most important cotton States (excluding Oklahoma)
s r.otited to only 46.6 per cent of March 1931, 33.5 per cent of March 1930 and
were the smallest for that month for more than a decade. For the four months
December through ,arch tag sales were 51.8 per cent less than during tnat
period last season, 69.2 per cent below 1929-30 and were also the smsallest since
sometime prior to 1920-21 when the records first became available.

Sr.I t

A recent innings report from Egypt snows that up to April 1, 1.:215,000
bales (of 478 poun-s) of all varieties of cotton, including scarto, of the
1931-32 crop had been ginned. This is equivalent to 94.5 per cent of the fore-
casted production of 1,2F9,000 bales. Ginningri of Sakellaridis. cotton up. to
April 1 amounted to 237,000 bales or 87 per cent of the forecasted production;
ir..:in;s of other varieties amounted to 93 per cent of the estii.iatei production
of 1,014,000 bales. rurinj the past three years total gi.nning of all cotton
in ZErpt up to April 1 have avere ai about 86 per cent of the final .;tii:ate
of production, innings of Si:-ellariiis to that date hav'- averag'ei abo't 24
;,,.r cent of production and ginning. of other varieties 87 per cent of production.

India

The preliminary estimate of the total Indian crop which .-as j.ist been
released indicates that the 1931-32 crop is now thought to havx been equivalent
to ab.nt 3,401,000 Lr;les of 4~8 pounds. This .ol:. areas with a r,:visei estimate
for the 1930-31 season of 4,372,000 bcles which r..,ans a decrease of 22.2 per
cent. Receipts at 3o.mbJT from A,.-ut 1 to April 7 this season nave totl2td
only about r-.alf as lar-- as to the same date last season, which substantiates







the estimated decrease in the crop. iThe estimated production for the 1931-32
crop is 20,7 per cent below the 19.29-30 crop and is the smallest for any
season since 1920-21.

Russia

io actual figures for the 1931 Russian cotton crop are as yet available
from Soviet sources. Indirect evidence, however, points to a fi.gre of
approximately 1,900,000 bales -'hich was indicated earlier by the Burca.i of
Agricultural Fcorno-;ics as the probable outturn of the 1931 crop. (Se.-: worldd
Cotton Prospects, Novemberr 30, 1931, opae 21 :ad Ja- ary 26, 1932, pa9:- 16.)
It was stated in the Socialist Agriculture of March 24, 1932, "that the plan
for tnis year calls for a production of 550,000 metric tons of lint, which
c uantity is 34 per cent in excess of the actual pr:iuction for 1931."
Calculations on this basic result in a figure of nearly 1,900,000 bales of
478 pouiLs for the 1931 Russian cotton crop. whilee this figure is consider-
ably below the 2,550,000 to 2,800,000 bales indicated as official expectations
of the outturn earlier in the season, it is nevertheless about 350,000 bales
above the 1930 crop and represents the largest increase in production in a
single year. Although Russian cotton production attained a new high record
in 1931 and was definitely above the pre-revolutionary peak, nevertheless
the gain was not commensurate with the increase in acreage. While the
Russian cotton acre:ge in 1931 exceeded the 1930 acr.ageo by approximately
one-third, production increased only by about one-fourth.

Reduced yield per :.cre in 1931 accounted for the failure of the crop
to keep pace with the increased acreage. An expansion of the Russian cotton
area, which brought it far above the pre-war c: riod and declining yields
which are Considerably below pre-war, have been characteristic of the
Russian cotton situation during the last few yecrs. Extension of cotton
cultivation into new, more northern regions during the last two years, where
it has not been grown previously except on an experimental scale, was bound
to reduce the average yield for U. S. S. R. as a thiole, especially in 1931
when these regions accounted for about 17 per cent of the total cotton area.

Yields in the new regions, where cotton is not grown under irrigation,
are considerably lower than in the older irrigated cotton-growing sections
of central Asia (Turkestan) and Tr-:~scaucasia. E-:ncnsion of the cotton
acrea3.e also took place in the old cotton-growing regions and it is possible
that the use of marginal land or the neglect of fallowin:g and proper
rotation, contributed to the decline of the yields. It should also be borne
in mind in i.2:ing any comparisons with the pre-war period that cotton in
central Asia, the princip 1 Russian ..rowin g area, was a highly intensive
crop, grown by pcc..-.ts on smc.ll plots of land with the use of primitive
implements ,id a prodigious amount of labor. It is possible that a decreased
intensity Cj.ria. recent years, in so far as it has not been offset by
imn-roved rr.chinrry :-ind cultural methods, i..y also be an important cause of
the smalller yields. The problem of raising the yields and in general improving
the q.-lity of production seems to be now in the center of attention of the
Soviet authorities, for the reports which have been received state that the
plans for 1533-33 call for an increase of only 14 per cent in acreage whereas
it ts pl.-inci to increase production 34 per cent.






C-79


Bra .il

The first official estimateof trn- total 1931-32 Brazilian cotton crop
ha.s recently been received. The estimate places the crop at 570,000 bales
of 478 pounds which is'20,000 bnius larger tha;-.: the estimate formerly carried
which was b-s: on an official-estimate )f the Br zilian Government for
the N'orthe-rn States and trade estimates for the Southern States. The estimate
of 570,000 bales is .bout 24 per cent larger than the 1930-31 crop which h
was ..-iterially reduced by drought conditions in some of the most important
cotton -ro'iucing States. The 1931-32 eatinate is slightly s-.-ller than the
1929-30 crop.

China

ITo recent estLj:!tes have been received on the results of 1931-32 Chinese
cotton crop, but reports from Shr.ghri state that receipts of native grown
cotton have been small all season. Duri,.L part of the season Cninese cotton
has been selling at unusually high prices relative to American and in some
cases even above American. This reflects not only the large supply 'nd low
prices of Anerican but also reduced supplies of Chinese cotton. The last
estimate of the crop which has been receiv(.d put the 1931-32 crop at 20 per
cent less than the previous one or about 1,800,000 bales of 478 pounds. The
report of the International Federation gave an estimate of the stocks of
sundries cotton (largely Ciinese) held by mills in China at the end of January
of 200,000 bales u. ich was 21 per cent smaller than a year earlier. Driln
the last r;2arter of 1931 it was estimated that receipts of cotton at Si-u.-,,hei
were only about one-.Aighth as large as in the sine period last season.
Receipts at Sh'rj:hai are not considered a measure of the crop, but this sharp
Iecrcase is a reflection of the smaller crop. The indifference of Chinese
merchants and spinners to native-grown cotton due to the cheapness of Amnerican
is r-so a factor in the smaller receipts.


--- -


-17-





UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA

3 1262 08863 1477


PAGE


CO'TIEITS


C-79


1-
2-
3-
4-
5-
6 -


S-1T2:..ry .. . .
Prices. .. .. .
Stocks r.-d ovcme t .. .
Textile Situation . .
Continental F.rop. ...
Production, Acrc%.e and Crop Condition.. ...


.... 1



S. 15
* 8
. 15


TA3LES


1 Cotton -riili stocks by growths in s ecified countries on hand
Jcuiary 31, 1932 ,id pErcent-:e c-:..-e froiT stocks on Jamuaryr
31, 31 . . .
2 Chj-nos in cotton consuirTtion fro-i the first -ialf of 19;30-31
to tibe first half of 1931-32, by ty,'-es of cotton ..
3 Cotton: Consum:;,tion by growth in specified countriespix months
ended. Jrnu'-r- 31, 1932 and percentre ch-anl e from correspond-
ing period in 1930-31 .


S....I. 'OR


U.S DEPOSITORY


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2

- 4
- 8
- 15
- 17






5

6



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