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Demography, stem harvesting, and conservation of the palm, Iriartea deltoidea

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Demography, stem harvesting, and conservation of the palm, Iriartea deltoidea
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Anderson, Patti Jane
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x, 205 leaves : ill. ; 29 cm.

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Agriculture ( jstor )
Crop harvesting ( jstor )
Ecology ( jstor )
Environmental conservation ( jstor )
Forest products ( jstor )
Forest resources ( jstor )
Forests ( jstor )
Pastures ( jstor )
Secondary forests ( jstor )
Seedlings ( jstor )
Botany thesis, Ph.D ( lcsh )
Dissertations, Academic -- Botany -- UF ( lcsh )
Iriartea deltoidea -- Ecuador ( lcsh )
Palms -- Harvesting -- Ecuador ( lcsh )
Sustainable forestry -- Ecuador ( lcsh )
City of Gainesville ( local )
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bibliography ( marcgt )
non-fiction ( marcgt )

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Thesis:
Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Florida, 1998.
Bibliography:
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 185-202).
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Typescript.
General Note:
Vita.
Statement of Responsibility:
by Patti Jane Anderson.

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DEMOGRAPHY, STEM HARVESTING, AND CONSERVATION OF THE PALM,
IRIARTEA DELTOIDEA









By

PATTI JANE ANDERSON


A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE
UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE
REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY

UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA




DEMOGRAPHY, STEM HARVESTING, AND CONSERVATION OF THE PALM,
IR1ARTEA DELTOIDEA
By
PATTI JANE ANDERSON
A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE
UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE
REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY
UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
1998


Copyright 1998
by
Patti Jane Anderson


This dissertation is dedicated to the memory of my parents, Earl Turner Anderson
and Lena Sue Bond Anderson, and to the continuing kindness of strangers.


ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
I sincerely appreciate the efforts of my academic advisor, Francis E. Putz, who
provided inspiration, guidance, and enthusiasm through all stages of the project. I also
thank the other members of my committee for supervising my project and guiding my
academic development. Marianne Schmink introduced me to development theory and
encouraged me to work harder and longer in my analysis. Kimberlyn Williams helped me
avoid several pitfalls in my biological research and statistical analysis. Clyde Kiker
helped me appreciate ecological economics and has been unfailingly supportive of my
work. David Wigston provided a example of the potential for combining ecology and
ethnobotany.
I am grateful to Scott Mori of the New York Botanical Garden, who introduced
me to tropical botany, and Mary Jean Holland of Baruch College, who introduced me to
computer modeling in biology; both have been good friends and mentors. John Oates of
Hunter College deserves thanks for his consistent support and thoughtful questions that
helped me develop my ideas about tropical conservation. I appreciate the discerning
observations of John J. Ewel and the generous support of Lini Wollenberg. David Jones
and the staff of the Department of Botany provided administrative support. I appreciate
the patience of several people who answered my questions about matrix models,
including Wendell Cropper, David McDonald, Carmine Lanciani, and Hal Caswell. I am
iv


also grateful for the support 1 received from staff in the Institute for Economic Botany at
the New York Botanical Garden. Andrew Henderson offered expert advice about lriartea
and scientific inspiration throughout my study.
My research would not have been possible without the cooperation and friendship
of staff at Jatun Sacha, especially David Neill, Michael McColm, and Alejandro Suarez.
I especially appreciate field assistance from volunteers at Jatun Sacha and members of the
Tapuy family who assisted me with data collection. My interviews with harvesters
depended in large part on the generosity of Isabel Lopez, agronomist of the municipality
of Puyo, who introduced me and vouched for my study. Several Peace Corps volunteers
also provided support and information, including Erick Smith, John Clark, and Kristina
Cochren. I thank the people of Pritirishca, Centro Consuela, and 10 de Agosto for their
collaboration with my study. I am grateful for the support and interest of the staff of
EcoCiencia where I made my home while I was in Quito.
I am grateful for the support of sisters and brothers (Peggy Ann Vanderford, Sara
Nell Lowery, Frances Louise Berry, Laura Faye Riggs, Robert Earl (Moose) Anderson,
and Kenneth Amos Anderson) and friends who helped me through difficult days during
my research. The Fulbright students who were in Ecuador with me were especially
important during my fieldwork; they include Susan Antebi, Katarina Galactos, Andy
Hanneman, Chris Miller, Laura Powell, and Steve Strifler During my entire gradual
school career, I depended on the support and insight of other students from the City
University of New York and New York Botanical Garden and the Department of Botany
at University of Florida, including but not limited to Amy Berkov, Flor Chavez, Emily
v


Harwell, Amy Lift, Claudio Pinero, Arthur Rostoker, Seth Bigelow, Ankila Hiremath,
Debbie Kennard, Kelly McPherson, Susan Moegenburg, and Becky Ostertag. I also thank
Helen Kraus, Peggy Pack, Miriam Rabban, and the staff of MDRC for the continuing
support they provide.
Financial support for my research was provided by the Tropical Conservation and
Development Program of the University of Florida, the College of Liberal Arts and
Sciences at University of Florida, the Fulbright Commission, and the Center for
International Forestry Research.
vi


TABLE OF CONTENTS
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS iv
CHAPTERS
1 INTRODUCTION TO SUSTAINABLE HARVESTING I
Introduction 1
Measuring Sustainability 9
Iriartea deltoidea in Ecuador: Why this Species? 16
Linking the Ecological and Economic Models 16
2 DEMOGRAPHY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINABLE
HARVESTING 20
Introduction 20
Methods 36
Results and Discussion 49
Conclusions 81
3 THE DECISION TO HARVEST IRIARTEA IN A CHANGING SOCIAL
CONTEXT 85
Introduction 85
Research Questions 90
Methods 91
Results and Discussion 100
Conclusions: What are the Implications of These Findings for Potential Ecological
and Economic Sustainability of Iriartea Harvesting? 126
4 CONSERVATION AND MARKETING 130
Introduction 130
Methods 138
Results and Discussion 141
Conclusions 165
vii


5 CONCLUSIONS 170
Lessons for Studies of Sustainable Harvesting 170
Harvesting Iriartea 173
APPENDIX
MATRIX MODELS AND POPULATION DYNAMICS 176
Transition Matrices 177
Matrix Models and Sustainable Harvesting 181
LIST OF REFERENCES 185
BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH 203
viii


Abstract of Dissertation Presented to the Graduate School of the University of Florida in
Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy
DEMOGRAPHY, STEM HARVESTING, AND CONSERVATION OF THE PALM,
IRIARTEA DELTOIDEA
By
Patti Jane Anderson
May 1998
Chair: Francis E. Putz
Major Department: Botany
Iriartea deltoidea is a palm growing abundantly from Nicaragua to Bolivia. The
stem is harvested for construction, furniture making, and handicrafts. Because the palm
is killed when it is harvested, the palm's economic usefulness has led to local over
harvesting in some areas. The objective of my study was to determine population
parameters for this palm and to better understand the potential for sustainable harvesting.
I conducted demographic surveys, measured growth, mortality and fecundity, and carried
out phenological studies in mature, secondary, and dissected (defined by steep slopes or
streams) forests at Jatun Sacha Research Station in Amazonian Ecuador. I focused on
identifying the life history stages most sensitive to change in order to help develop
guidelines for sustainable harvesting. I identified these stages using sensitivity and
elasticity analyses. Simulations of harvesting suggest that harvesting may be sustainable
(lambda >=1) when harvesting rates are modest or when large numbers of small adults
are available to replace harvested individuals in a reasonable rotation time (< 30 years).
IX


Harvesting the largest size class (> 20 m tall) has less impact on future generations than
cutting juveniles before reproductive size is reached (< 10 m tall), a practice followed
when pastures are cleared for grazing.
Harvesting pressures were found to influence Iriartea demography near settled
areas. Ethnographic fieldwork about market patterns and decision making among
harvesters revealed the nature of these pressures. The methods used in this study also
demonstrate an approach for assessing ecological and economic influences on the
sustainability of a particular species or set of species. They allowed me to explore the
interlinked nature of ecological approaches and economic factors in assessing
sustainability. Management recommendations were based on developing scenarios using
local population densities coupled with a range of harvesting rates to estimate the effects
of harvesting tall adults and of sparing juveniles and small adults when pastures are
cleared, and subsequently abandoned to allow secondary forest succession.
x


CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION TO SUSTAINABLE HARVESTING
Introduction
Harvesting non-timber forest products (NTFPs) offers a potential means for
utilizing resources while preserving intact forests and therefore, being able to maintain a
more nearly intact planet for future generations. Yet the biological effects of NTFP
harvesting are often not well known before the products are marketed. Without
information about the biology of the product-supplying species, over-harvesting is a
potential threat. Without knowledge of the context in which resources are used, and of
how that context is changing, our expectations about the needs of future generations may
easily miss the mark. This goal of saving the planet for future generations is embedded in
the concept of sustainable development. This goal does not require that natural resources
be left untouched; rather, it can be a reminder to remain mindful of the consequences of
harvesting and understand the rate of use that can cause a resource to be used up.
My primary goal in carrying out the research reported here was to determine the
potential for sustainable harvesting of Iriartea deltoidea Ruiz & Pavn (pambtl or chonta
de pambtt in Spanish). I conducted demographic studies to develop simulations of future
harvesting regimes to help determine ecologically sustainable populations of the palm in
Ecuador. I carried out ethnographic studies about market patterns and decision making
1


2
among harvesters to learn the potential forces of change influencing the palm's uses and
demography. My analyses of these data demonstrate the interlinked nature of the
ecological and economic variables used in assessing sustainability and the importance of
the social context in which harvesting occurs. I begin this chapter with a discussion of
the definitions of economic and ecological sustainability to indicate the different points of
departure of the two disciplines, then consider the implications of these definitions for
measuring the sustainability of NTFP harvesting. Finally, I will mention the purpose of
each of the following chapters.
Defining Ecological and Economic Sustainability
Sustainability suffers from a wealth of definitions and connotations. The
perspectives of ecologists, economists, resource managers, and other interested parties
differ, but most acknowledge the Brundtland Commissions statement that sustainable
development meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future
generations to meet their own needs. (World Commission on Environment and
Development 1987). This concept is often referred to as "intergenerational equity.
Any further refinement of the definition of sustainability may cause ecologists and
economists to remind us of the blind men and the elephant. If we ask an ecologist and an
economist to decide if harvesting a given NTFP is sustainable, the ecologist might
answer the question, "Will this resource be available to future generations if current or
projected harvesting levels are maintained or will some irrevocable change to the resource
occur?" The economist might answer the question, "Will the yield from this resource
continue over the practical lifetime of the project envisioned and allow the next


3
generation of humans to be no worse off than they would have been without the project?"
The differing views of the problem arise from different perspectives and traditions within
the disciplines. Intergenerational equity is likely to be addressed by ecologists in terms of
shrinking inventory of species or the widening gap in the ozone layer left for future
generations, while economists might be more concerned with the distribution of benefits,
costs and individual preferences across time. These differences can be understood by
having an appreciation for the differences in economic and ecological perspectives on the
value of the future and the meaning of equity.
The Value of the Future
Perhaps the most basic difference between economists and ecologists with regard
to sustainability is their perspective on the value of species or resources in the future. For
the economist evaluating benefits or profit in the future, a bird in hand is worth two in the
future. The future is full of uncertainty; the farther economists look into the future, the
less certain they can be about monetary returns from a project or from delayed harvesting.
Possible gains from investments or from the appreciating value of goods purchased are
lost as long as the profit taking is deferred. By comparison, ecologists thinking of the
future tend to see the threat of loss-loss of species or habitats-as a great danger. The
future has the same or more value than the present; therefore, any loss now will be felt by
countless generations to come. The cost of habitat loss now is very high for the
ecologists because the future value of each species or ecosystem is so great.
Cost-benefit analysis demonstrates how differences in ecological and economic
perspectives about the future can be significant in real life applications. If a plan for


harvesting a NTFP is analyzed, the costs of harvesting (such as labor or transportation)
are compared with the benefits of harvesting over time. The sum of the benefits over the
course of a project is called the net present value (NPV). The equation for NPV includes
the discount rate assigned to the project and the number of years assumed to be the life of
the project. Future benefits are perceived to be reduced according to a discount rate to
account for the lower value of profits in the future. Some ecologists, who presumably
believe a future that includes more species is more valuable than the alternative, argue
that discount rates are inappropriate in determining the potential for sustainable
harvesting of natural resources (e.g., Lande el al. 1994). Assumptions about the value of
the future can therefore influence the assessment of a development strategy over time.
Equity
Both ecologists and economists may ponder whether equity means leaving behind
exactly the same resources for future generations. The ecologist might be inclined to ask
Is the current generation obligated to leave behind all the resources available for its
use? The economist on the other hand might phrase the question as Is it enough to say
the future contains an equal number of options with regard to development?" In the case
of Iriartea deltoidea (hereafter, Iriartea), the questions might be phrased, "Can a
harvesting regime maintain the mean number of individuals per hectare within a region?"
vs. "Can the average per capita income from forest (or forests converted to agriculture)
within the region be maintained?" The ecologist might suggest that harvesting be
allowed at a rate that is no greater than the rate of natural increase with possible
augmentation of the rate with restoration projects or forest management to encourage


5
regeneration of the species in harvested areas. The economist might suggest that
substitutes are available for this resource and if the average per capita income within the
region can be maintained, substitutions may be a good thing. For example, houses can be
constructed of other woods, floors can be made of concrete, roofs can be made of tin;
people will still have houses, even if certain forest products are no longer available. The
forest might not offer food for the same array of animals, but people may substitute cans
of tuna for game and still have protein in their diets. Eventually, the issue of potential
substitution becomes, "What quantity of substitution becomes a qualitative change in
peoples lives or in an ecosystem?" Perhaps this questions depends less on individual
choices to substitute one product for another, but rather a social policy decision to
endanger or protect a species.
Because there are physical limits to restoration of degraded systems and perhaps
there are economic limits to technological solutions for future generations, some
combination of both ecological and economic strategies is likely to be necessary. An
equally difficult issue for both disciplinary perspectives is whether future generations in
every local area should be left with an independent ability to meet their own needs, or if
benefits at the global or regional scale should be pursued even if some places are worse
off. If the latter strategy is used some future generation might ask, "Is there an
appropriate consolation prize for not receiving an intact ecosystem?"
The Likelihood of Sustainability
In considering development based on NTFPs, an unspoken assumption is
sometimes made that harvesting can be sustainable because generations of indigenous


6
people have used a forest product. Even if this is true in some cases, if levels of harvest
ing increase (in response to increasing human populations or market incentives), more
precise estimates of sustainable harvesting levels may be needed, including measurements
of extraction rates and the rate of natural population replacement of harvested species
(e.g., Godoy and Bawa 1993).
The task of determining levels of harvesting that allow a species, as well as the
ecosystem from which it is extracted, to be maintained requires understanding the
complex array of interactions among social, economic, and ecological variables that influ
ence harvesting (Blaikie and Brookfield 1987; Hicks et al. 1990). If neither ecology nor
economics alone can offer the tools to determine sustainability, together they may be able
to help define contexts in which sustainable development is more or less likely. For
example, by including the value of a resource for future generations, ecologists and
economist can help avoid the incompatibility of short-run thinking and sustainable
development. Lack of knowledge about long-term consequences of a decision to harvest
forest products can lead to social traps that lure decision-makers into seeking short-term
benefits with unknown long-term costs. Costanza and Daly (1992, 42) define a social
trap as "any situation in which the short-run, local reinforcements guiding individual
behavior are inconsistent with the long-run, global best interest of the individual or
society."
Although uncertainties may make assessments of sustainability difficult, NTFPs
may provide sufficient alternatives to more "predatory land-use strategies" (Browder
1992, p.38) to make the effort worthwhile, especially if projects include ecological


7
education and rural extension. The challenge is making individual utility correspond more
closely with long-term societal interests and avoiding social traps when profits grow large
enough to attract powerful elites (Costanza 1987; Dove 1993a). Pressures to maximize
short-term profits may be most likely when the benefits of using a resource flow to
entities with no local ties and, therefore, little stake in the future well-being of local
inhabitants and their natural capital. Using the economic view of the future, projects with
a high discount rate are more likely to encourage short-term exploitation of a resource and
potential degradation of the stocks available.
Why should we accept any risk of the demise of another species or the
degradation of an ecosystem? As Redford and Stearman (1993, 252) remind us,
"Indigenous people commonly want and have a right to health care, education and
material conveniences that improve their quality of life. While traditional knowledge of
resource use may provide for these necessities in ways that conservationists find
admirable and that perhaps serve as models for other people, the fact is that traditional
ways often do not meet growing needs." Those who advocate developing markets for
NTFPs are generally not seeking higher profits for groups with many alternative income
sources; rather, they are attempting to evaluate the possibilities for people living in a
forest to meet their growing needs in ways that leave the forest undamaged and available
to meet future needs.
If neither ecology nor economics alone can offer the tools to determine
sustainability, by integrating different views about the value of a resource for future
generations, ecologists and economists can help avoid the incompatibility of short-run


thinking and sustainable development. Integrating views about equity, ecologists and
economists can produce a broader range of future options and pinpoint where trade-offs
may need to be made. Short-run thinking may also occur when researchers focus on a
static view of a system without including social change as an element of the context for
sustainability.
If we assume that both ecological and economic systems are subject to change, we
must deal with sustainability within a dynamic system. In such a system, sustainability
might be viewed as an approach to limiting pressures from outside the local system that
overwhelm its existing control mechanisms. Sustainability does not necessarily imply
keeping the qualities of a system constant. Biological systems sometimes depend on
dramatic change for long-term stability, such as fire-dependent systems that require
conflagrations to stimulate regeneration. Other systems may have smaller scale
disturbances or cycles of change that are essential for system maintenance. Supply and
demand in economic systems are often dynamic or cyclical. Dramatic economic changes
(boom and bust cycles offer an extreme example) can lead to rapidly changing prices that
contribute to social upheaval. Some economic systems might even be catastrophe
dependent and sustaining them might demand extreme flexibility.
Extremes aside, if intergenerational equity is the goal, lessons from dynamic
systems can help us understand necessary limits on the amplitude of perturbations we
introduce to a system through extraction of forest products. To better understand these
limits, we can use economic methods to understand current levels of resource use;
ecological methods to understand the rate of replacement based on observations of births,


9
deaths, and growth; and methods from both disciplines to understand pressures for
change in extraction rates and regeneration potential especially if demand for other
products changes land use patterns on which ecological processes depend.
We can take sustainability as a goal or a direction, like the ideal of truth or beauty,
a goal toward which we might want to aim, but a goal that remains a question,
nonetheless (Uhl, et al. 1996). As Redford and Sanderson (1992) caution, we cannot
assume that sustainable economic development is compatible with ecological goals of
sustainable ecosystems or species conservation, but this is a question that can be
addressed through research and monitoring (Holling 1995).
Measuring Sustainability
Following from the discussion of intergenerational equity, three questions are
basic for the measurement of the economic and ecological aspects of sustainability of a
species: "Where is it?"; "How much is there?"; and "How is it likely to change over
time?" A fourth question, What is the impact of sustainable management? is necessary
to understand the broader implications of sustainability as there may be unanticipated
consequences of achieving the target of sustainability.
When we ask the question "Where is it?" we need answers that locate the resource
ecologically in harvestable space as well as economically in "marketable" space. We
need to know if the plant grows close enough to local people for harvesting to make sense
as well as if the harvesters are close enough to consumers or market intermediaries for
selling to make sense. When we ask, "How much is there?" we need to know in
biological terms how much is available now and how quickly the species grows and


10
reproduces. In economic terms, we need to know how much is needed to make a profit
and how will increases in demand affect the future supply. When we ask, "How is it
likely to change?" we need to understand ecologically what are the competing land uses
(e.g., pressures for deforestation) that could eliminate the resource, and the potential for
monitoring change in the system, for encouraging reforestation, or for enforcing
restrictions on harvesting levels with permits, bag limits, or perhaps ecotourism taxes. In
economic terms, we need to know the pressures for change that include substitutability
(e.g., can another product easily take the place of the NTFP in the market?); new or
improved transportation to market centers; and patterns of population growth, rural-urban
migration, and urban-rural resettlement programs.
The fourth question, "What is gained or lost if the resource is extracted, even if its
population or benefits are sustained?" is difficult to answer and rarely asked. While there
are accepted methods for addressing the benefits and costs of development projects, the
task of looking at costs to ecosystem health, to future populations of species that interact
with the harvested species, and to social systems that may change when new cash reserves
become available (perhaps unequally) to its members, remains daunting. The question is
posed here to provoke thinking; addressing it was beyond the scope of my research.
Stocks and Flows
The questions of where, how much and how is the resource changing can be
addressed by analyzing stocks and flows of the resource. The stock of a resource is the
quantity available for exploitation.1 The flow of a resource is the quantity entering or
1 Stock roughly equals natural capital as defined by Costanza and Daly (1992).


11
leaving a system and depends both on the time needed for extraction (travel and
harvesting time) and the demand for the product. A forest may have thousands of dollars
worth of harvestable resources, but if no one harvests or no one is willing to pay for the
resource, it remains in the forest stock. Inventories of tropical forests may provide
estimates of the net present value of available resources from an area over the course of
50 years (e.g., Peters et al. 1989; Balick and Mendelsohn 1992), but as Browder (1992)
notes, the flow of goods to an actual market from one day's labor may be more
meaningful as a measure of potential sustainability.
Determining the stocks and flow of a product requires identifying levels of risk
and uncertainty from future harvesting. Although in economic analyses these terms are
sometimes used interchangeably, risk usually can be assigned a probability while for
uncertainty the probability is unknown (Turner et al. 1993). When little is known about
the biology or ecology of a given species, as is the case for many tropical forest species,
the probabilities associated with risk are less accurate and the number of variables about
which we are uncertain increases.
The essential difficulty in determining sustainability of a species is in determining
appropriate flow levels, i.e. evaluating the trade-off between using resources now and
conserving enough of the stock to insure that benefits may flow to future generations.
Several authors have suggested setting a safe minimum standard for the stock of each
species to address the element of risk for irreversible change to an ecosystem and the cost
of its extraction (e.g., Tisdell 1988, Toman 1992, and Turner etal. 1993). Although this
concept may not define strict quantitative guidelines, it does highlight the necessity of


12
accounting for uncertainty. Societies could decide on an acceptable level of potential risk
of loss and take steps to develop standards and protection against practices with
unacceptable levels of risk. Even if safe minimum standards can be transformed from
concepts to actual policies, monitoring will be necessary to assess their adequacy
(Gunderson et al., 1995). The inherent risk and uncertainty of harvesting forest products
suggest that the measurement of stocks and flows and consequent assessment of
sustainability needs to be an on-going process.
Ecological Tools
Resource stocks and flows have been analyzed using matrix models (e.g., Getz
and Haight 1989; Pinard and Putz 1992), as has risk assessment (Burgman, et al. 1993).
The use of matrix models in population biology has a long history (e.g., Leslie 1945;
Lefkovitch 1965) with new insights provided recently by several authors whose work will
be discussed in a later chapter (e.g., Caswell 1989; Peters 1990; Menges 1990;
McDonald and Caswell 1993; Alvarez-Buylla 1994). Peters (1994, 1996) has also
provided an excellent basic explanation of methods for investigating an area and using
matrix models to determine which species found within it might be harvested sustainably
as well as guidelines for ecological investigation and management strategies; Hall and
Bawa (1993) offer suggestions for ecological inventories and monitoring of NTFPs.
Stocks and flows have also been effectively analyzed using ethnographic information,
experimental designs, and predictive models, for example in the work of Joyal (1996) on
a palm, Sabal uresana, found in Mexico.


13
To understand the stocks and flows of a resource, we need to analyze the effects
of harvesting in terms of changes in the likelihood that the species will replace itself.
Maintaining the current stock of natural capital requires that the flow out of the system
(harvesting or deaths) is equal to the flow into the system (births or seedling recruitment
and vegetative reproduction in plants); these flows are understood in large part by
studying reproduction and growth variables. Demographic studies of local NTFP
populations can therefore help answer the ecological side of the questions, "Where is it?"
and "How much is there?" With transects, plots, or other inventory methods established
across ecological gradients, we may be able to answer more specific questions such as:
What are the spacial distribution patterns of this species, by life stages under
different ecological conditions?
Is the density of the species high enough to encourage increased harvesting as in
an oligarchic forest (defined as a forest in which one species is represented by 100
- 300 individuals per hectare; see Peters 1992)?
Is the density of the species greater in recently disturbed forests or in more mature
forests?
To conduct demographic studies, changes in growth and reproduction, and the
environment affecting those changes, must be examined. This information can be used to
answer the question How is the resource likely to change?. The current stock has a
reproductive potential that can be determined. Changes in this potential can occur if too
many adults are harvested to produce sufficient replacements (which is a danger when the
plant is killed by harvesting as with some palm hearts and rattans) or if not enough young
live to become reproductive adults. Growth rates are important for understanding how
often the resource can be harvested without damage to reproduction or future growth. For


14
example, if leaves of a plant are collected for thatch or fiber, collecting too many leaves
from an individual can reduce production of new leaves, and perhaps flowering and
fruiting. Experiments to determine the effects of removing leaves, tapping latex, or
digging up roots can help determine if harvesting these NTFPs changes the growth or
reproductive potential of the local population.
More complex relationships between growth and reproduction and ecosystem
changes may also affect the stocks and flows of a resource. Changes in soil nutrient
content, water availability, light, or in plant pollinators or seed dispersers can be
important influences on the flows of the resource. Understanding changes in the soil
when leaves or fruits are harvested and therefore no longer decompose and return their
nutrients within the forest can be important, although time constraints often make this
kind of experimentation unfeasible.
One approach to understanding some of these more complex relationships is to
monitor the harvesting of resources that are found potentially sustainable by initial
research. For example, harvesting some number of leaves from a plant may not inhibit
growth or reproduction, indicating initially that harvesting might be sustainable. A
consequence of harvesting the leaves might be a change in the light levels reaching the
forest floor or a change in nutrient composition of the soil (Findley et al. 1996; Tiessen
1994); this change in light or nutrients could, in turn, affect seedling establishment, but
only after the harvesting regime had been followed for several years. By continuing to
monitor demographic patterns, changes in response to harvesting can be identified and
managed (Holling 1995).


15
Economic Tools
In studying economic sustainability, we need to be able to answer the questions
"Where is it?" and How much is there?" in relation to local harvesters, markets and
transportation to markets. Information is needed about who harvests, at what rate, under
what conditions. Land-use maps and interviews with people currently involved in
market sales can help answer these questions. Community maps can be used to identify
the practical range of harvesting given current access to transportation and to determine
the placement of transects across social gradients. Knowing the flow of goods from one
person's labor in one day, with a given technology (with chain saws, for example) is also
important for calculating flows. In addition to determining the distribution of life stages
and rates of growth and reproduction from ecological studies, we need to know the
current demand in terms of local sales at the forest gate (or market sales if more distant
markets exist) to understand pressures on the possible flow of NTFPs. Economically, we
need to know if the current yield can continue without changing the growth and
reproductive potential of the NTFP. If demand is high enough, the potential supply can
be depleted before sufficient time passes for growth and replacement of the outward flow.
If the harvesting is based on individual decisions in an open access resource
system, the likelihood of sustainable development may be quite different than if a
resource is restricted (Bromley 1989). Knowing the norms for decision making and the
units for which decisions are made are necessary for predicting pressures for over
harvesting. Decision-tree models (Gladwin 1989) can be used to clarify the norms and
values that limit the range of individual decisions or that require decision making at the


16
household or community (rather than individual) level. See Bernard 1994, Nichols 1991,
or Godoy et al. 1993 for lengthier treatments of methods useful for understanding
individual and household economic strategies.
Iriartea deltoidea in Ecuador: Why this Species?
Iriartea is among the most common palms in Amazonian and coastal Ecuador
(Balslev et al. 1987). The beauty and durability of its stem have made it desirable for
many uses, including construction, furniture, marimbas, banana tree props, handicrafts,
blowguns, and harpoons (Kahn and de Granville 1993). Iriartea was chosen for study
both because of its current and potential economic usefulness and its abundance in
lowland Ecuador. Although abundant now, the palm's usefulness may eventually pose a
threat to this resource because it is killed when harvested (Pinard 1993). Yet, as with
other NTFPs, increased trade in products made from palm stems may provide a useful
economic alternative to the people of Ecuador, as their population increases, if
sustainable harvesting levels can be determined and utilized.
Linking the Ecological and Economic Models
This research focuses on one economically important species with a wide
distribution in the neotropics and provides an example of methods for integrating the
effects of social and biological processes factors on the sustainability of the species. In
Chapter Two, I demonstrate that by studying the life history and population biology of a
species, it is possible to ascertain how harvesting might threaten the future of this
abundant resource. I use the methods of population ecology and demography to answer
the questions "Where is it?" and "How much is there? This chapter contains estimates


17
of the effects of increased harvesting with matrix models. In Chapter Three, I use
ethnographic methods to address questions of markets and transportation as well as the
pressures for change in the lives of the harvesters, artisans, and carpenters who depend on
this palm for at least some of their livelihood. Chapter Four includes my analysis of
market variables, the potential for expanded markets, and some issues related to
establishing certification for sustainable harvesting. Although I was not able to address
the issues of ecosystem change because of the limitations of field time and research
funds, this work can form the basis of future studies at the level of the ecosystem and
national and international market places.
The methods used in this study helped to demonstrate for the case of Iriartea that
proximity to the resource, access to transportation, and confidence of sales at an
acceptable price are key factors influencing harvesting for the market. Harvesting levels
for personal use depend more on the need for construction materials as well as proximity
to adult Iriartea. If harvesting requires carrying stems out of the forest (not on mule or
horseback) for more than one hour, harvesting becomes much less likely. Key decisions
of harvesters are based on answers to the questions "Is the price high enough?"; "Is the
market reliable enough?"; and "Can the stems be transported?" Conditions that affect the
stock of the resource include the forest type and its history of use, the distance to roads
that can be used to transport stems, and proximity of the resource to permanent
settlements. Changes in land use and transportation reflect changes in national policies
that influence regional, local, and household dynamics.


18
I draw several lessons from this experience. For example, the definition of
sustainability used here emphasized maintaining current levels of the resource and
understanding pressures affecting its density and distribution. Because the ecological
research was conducted for a limited time and within the bounds of a research station,
current levels of growth, reproduction, and mortality reported here may not represent the
full biological potential of the species. The population levels we find now might
represent a major loss of the species if we had comparative information about distribution
from a generation or two in the past. Research inevitably involves a decision to choose
some point in time as a the beginning of study. I have attempted to include in my analysis
elements of the social context that affect change in uses and markets for Iriartea as part
of the effort to understand the potential for change beyond the period observed during this
research project.
Using the concept of stocks and flows gave me the opportunity to discover that
while measuring stocks is not without difficulties, it is much easier than measuring flows.
Because harvesting and sales are intermittent activities, there was rarely a time when I
could observe "the market" (Plattner 1989). Information about harvesting, purchasing
stems, or sales of furniture was almost always retrospective. My attempt to use an
ecological and an economic model to help understand the answers to my three questions
allowed me to understand interrelationships I might have missed if I had studied only one
aspect of the sustainability issue; on the other hand, my focus was almost entirely local or
regional and did not include an analysis of international monetary policies nor national
economic forces that encouraged colonization, oil exploration, and agriculture for export.


19
These issues shape the context in which changing patterns of land use and settlement
affect the processes of harvesting and marketing NTFPs as well as the ability of plant
species to grow and reproduce.


CHAPTER 2
DEMOGRAPHY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINABLE HARVESTING
The results from the ecological study of Brosimum alicastrum underscore
the value of a demographic focus in the analysis of tropical forest resources. . .
Prior to increasing forest exploitation, ecological studies of the species were
initiated to assess the potential sustainability of annual seed collections. This is a
rather unusual ordering of priorities. More commonly, ecological analyses are
employed only after exploitation has severely reduced the abundance of an
important resource, the investigation, in effect, being an a posteriori assessment
of what went wrong and what can be done about it (Peters 1991,270).
Introduction
If managed properly, non-timber forest products (NTFPs) can contribute toward
meeting many of the goals of sustainable development, including ameliorating poverty,
protecting biodiversity, and maintaining ecosystem services by reducing the need for cash
from other, more destructive practices. Investigating ecological and economic
implications before encouraging harvesting of NTFPs may serve to avoid the need to
study what went wrong, as Peters (1991) suggests. Still, situations (both ecological and
economic) are always subject to change; hence research priorities should include not only
the a priori question "What if?" but also on-going monitoring to answer "What now?"
Examples of projects going wrong are not difficult to find because projects
designed to promote economically and ecologically sustainable extraction may
unintentionally exacerbate the conditions they are intended to avoid. Over-harvesting and
20


21
subsequent damage to the harvested species, as well as to the forests in which it grows,
may occur if demand for the product increases dramatically, as was the case with rattan in
Indonesia (Weinstock 1983). The opportunity for reducing poverty or providing a stable
non-destructive source of cash for local people may also be lost if outside interests gain
control of extraction (Dove 1993a, 1997; Safran and Godoy 1993). For example, the
extraction of jojoba (Simmondisia chinensis) could have provided significant income for
Apache residents of the southwestern United States. Instead, investors from outside that
community developed 25,000 ha of jojoba plantations, with little benefit accruing to the
Apache (Nabhan 1992).
Methodological Issues in Assessing NTFP Sustainability
In considering economic development based on NTFPs, an unspoken assumption
is sometimes made that harvesting can be sustainable because generations of indigenous
people have used a forest product. Even if this is true in some cases, if levels of harvest
ing increase (in response to increasing human population pressure or market incentives),
more precise estimates of sustainable harvesting levels may be needed, including mea
surements of extraction rates and the harvested species' replacement rates (e.g., Godoy
and Bawa 1993).
The task of determining levels of harvesting that allow a species, as well as the
ecosystem from which it is extracted, to be maintained requires understanding the
complex array of interactions among social, economic, and ecological variables that influ
ence harvesting (Blaikie and Brookfield 1987; Hicks et al. 1990). The methodological
challenge is to collect adequate economic information to estimate potential benefits and


22
costs fairly, while gathering sufficient biological information to develop guidelines for
appropriate management of the species. If increased extraction is encouraged, the
necessary next step is to set up monitoring procedures that can accurately capture changes
to the system if development projects are encouraged. Finally, the successful
management of development projects requires the flexibility to incorporate new
information from on-going research (e. g., Gunderson et al. 1995; Walters 1986; Walters
and Holling 1990).
Techniques for investigating the biological potential of NTFP extraction may vary
widely, depending on what is harvested, while economic analyses are often complicated
by changing social contexts. Plant-based forest products may be derived from leaves,
fruits or seeds, or stems for which the harvested individual is killed (e.g., some palm
hearts and rattans). Understanding the full range of the effects of harvesting these
different plant parts may require careful manipulative experiments in addition to
demographic monitoring studies. Understanding the potential markets for products and
the likelihood of fluctuations in those markets may require additional kinds of analysis.
For example, fruits may have a short "shelf-life" and little chance for sale in international
markets, while more durable seeds, such as tagua nuts (vegetable ivory) may become
buttons for the shirts worn far from the forests of origin (Acosta-Solis 1948; Barfod et al.
1990). Moreover, uses of forest products may change over time. Joyal (1996) found that
members of the community she studied in Mexico now prefer tin roofs, rather than the
traditional thatch made from palm leaves. I also found that people often described uses
"from the old days" when forest products were closer at hand and alternatives were less


23
readily available. The dynamics of use and cultural values, as well as population
dynamics, complicate the research effort. Uses of Iriartea and changes in those uses are
the subject of the following chapter.
Matrix Models and Population Dynamics
The use of matrix models in population biology has a long history (e.g., Leslie
1945; Lefkovitch 1965) and has become a useful tool in understanding the life stages
important for conservation of a species (e.g., Crouse et al. 1987; Lande 1988; Menges
1986; van Tienderen 1995) and for monitoring the effects of conservation interventions
(Maschinski et al. 1997; Schemske et al. 1994). Matrix models can also help identify the
stages of an invasive species most likely to be controllable (Parker 1997). These models
provide a common and well-understood approach to assessing the demographic
characteristics of a population (Getz and Haight 1989), as well as the risk associated with
population change (Burgman et al. 1993), and a technique for better understanding
population structure and dynamics..
Understanding the population structure and dynamics of a species is essential for
developing management plans (e.g., Peters 1994; Pinard and Putz 1992). For example,
projections using matrix models can form the basis for estimating the number and size of
individuals that may be harvested without endangering the continued existence of a
population (e.g., Bosch 1971; Hall and Bawa 1993; Horvitz and Schemske 1995; Pea
Claros 1996; Peters 1990, 1991; Pinard 1993). Matrix models provide an indication of
replacement rates for managed NTFP populations through the value of lambda (A).
Changes in the value of X reflect potential changes in the population replacement rate,


24
because "X integrates the effect of the environment on the vital rates into a single
statistic" (Caswell 1988, 178).
In addition to providing an analysis of population change based on X values,
matrix models can be useful in studies of sustainable harvesting by revealing the stages of
a species that are most sensitive to change in population structure. Knowing the stage
most sensitive to change can help in developing guidelines for sustainable harvesting
because modest changes in this stage can cause large changes in the projection of future
population size. Moreover, by using sensitivity and elasticity measures described by
Caswell (1989) and others (e. g., Maschinski et al. 1997; McDonald and Caswell 1993),
we may identify these stages and focus future research effort on strengthening the quality
of measures used to understand growth and regeneration within them as a part of a
management plan for harvesting (Alvarez-Buylla 1994; McDonald and Caswell 1993;
Menges 1990).
Why This Species?
Iriartea deltoidea Ruiz & Pavn (hereafter, Iriartea) is a monotypic genus
(Henderson 1990) that is among the most common palms in Amazonian and coastal
Ecuador (Balslev et al. 1987) as well as in other areas of Latin America, including Peru
(e.g., Losos, 1995), Costa Rica (e.g., Clark et al. 1995), and Bolivia (Dewalt et al. 1997).
Its current uses include construction, furniture, marimbas, banana props, handicrafts,
blowguns, and harpoons (Kahn and de Granville 1993). Studying Iriartea (known as
pambil or chonta de pambil in Ecuador) is important both because of its current and
potential economic usefulness (e.g., Pedersen and Balslev 1990; Phillips et al. 1994) and


25
its abundance in lowland Ecuador. Although abundant now, the palm's usefulness may
eventually pose a threat to this resource because it is killed when harvested (Pinard 1993).
As early as 1970, large individuals of this species were extirpated near Iquitos, Peru,
because of over-harvesting (Jordan 1970). Yet as with other NTFPs, increased trade in
products made from palm stems may provide a useful economic alternative to people of
Ecuador, as their population increases, if sustainable harvesting levels can be determined
and utilized before the need arises to study "what went wrong."
Why Yet Another Study?
Policy-makers who are considering the benefits and costs of encouraging NTFP
extraction must understand the languages of both economics and ecology to evaluate
alternatives for development without neglecting the consequences for ecosystems. If
uncertainties with regard to these alternatives circumscribe a development choice, then
the advice of Tisdell (1988) may be useful: delay. Delay for research that may clarify
biological processes, ecological relationships, and economic benefits or costs and thereby
reduce the need for studies of damage done, after the fact.
If research is to be useful for resource managers and policy-makers, it must be
designed to answer management questions. Inventories that reveal the number of species
per hectare might be interesting and important, but may not provide sufficient
information. Managing an area simply to maintain or increase the number of species
there may miss the mark. Although increasing numbers of species, or higher biodiversity,
may be found in some areas following swidden agriculture (e.g., Bale 1994), we do not
know if some rare species are lost and replaced by more common ones based on


26
comparisons of the number of species. As Ehrenfeld (1991) reminds us in his discussion
of managing deer and box turtles, one species may pay the ecological costs of
management for another species' benefit.
In addition, research as an integral part of monitoring development projects may
allow early warnings about potential threats to economic or ecological sustainability as
these systems evolve (Holling 1995). With NTFPs, the potential for local extirpation of a
resource when new markets develop or when prices rise requires us to continue
population monitoring to be sure forests are not emptied of the target species or other
species with relationships to the ones being marketed (Redford 1992).
Country Setting
Construction of roads and the trans-Ecuadorian oil pipeline turned eastern
Ecuador into one of the most intense targets of colonization in the Amazon basin and
stimulated one of the highest rates of deforestation in the world (Peck 1990). The effects
of national policies related to transportation and economic development, intended to
encourage exports, also encourage the replacement of forests with cattle pastures and
banana, coffee, cacao, and oil-palm plantations. Logging companies have built roads that
provide entry points for additional settlers into forested areas and thereby increase
deforestation pressures from colonization (Rudel 1993; Pearce 1994). The highways
opened the Amazonian forests to colonists, land speculators, and agribusiness interests
(Southgate et al. 1991).
New roads, new settlement by colonists, and deforestation have grown hand in
hand in Amazonian Ecuador (Peck 1990). Although the intact forest might have great


27
value, establishing and maintaining land tenure requires land clearing; therefore, most
farmers disregard the value of forests in order to hold on to land. The perception of a
limitless frontier can also encourage more extensive agricultural clearing to increase crop
production, especially when more land than capital is available (Pichn 1996a).
Although pressures are strong for change in land use from forest to agriculture within
Amazonian Ecuador, the form agricultural land use takes is not necessarily
predetermined.
Colonists and indigenous farmers invest in a strikingly varied portfolio of
agricultural land use practices. Polycultures of annuals and perennials such as maize or
rice with cacao, coffee, and citrus or other fruit trees (and increasingly flowers and
tropical ornamentals for export) are common (Economist 1997; Pichn 1996a, 1996b;
pers. obs.). Mixed systems not only serve as insurance against crop failures, but also help
to maintain agroecosystem functions by incorporating the benefits of succession, reducing
risks from pests, and including deep-rooted plants that allow uptake of nutrients from
subsoils (Ewel 1986). NTFPs can be an important element in the portfolio of cash
producing strategies for farmers, and some, like Iriartea, can also fit within the
polycultural systems that many Amazonian Ecuadorians already employ.
Research Site
I conducted my ecological research in lowland Ecuador at Jatun Sacha Biological
Research Station (hereafter, Jatun Sacha) and the surrounding community in Napo
Province of Amazonian Ecuador. Jatun Sacha is located on the Rio Napo (01 04' S;
7736' W) at an elevation of about 450 m and is classified as a tropical wet forest


28
(Holdridge 1967), with annual rainfall of 3500-4000 mm and mean annual temperature of
23 C. The station is actively expanding through acquisitions of nearby farms. In 1995
when my study began, it covered an area of 1200 ha; 70% of this area was primary forest,
with secondary forest making up the rest. Much of the secondary forest was under
cultivation in coffee and cacao approximately 30 years ago. Recent acquisitions by Jatun
Sacha include areas that were pastures or agricultural cropland until the time of purchase.
Hunting and selective logging have occurred in the past over much of the reserve area.
The surrounding community consists of colonists and lowland Quichua people who own
small farms (about 50 ha per family), most of which include pastures that have been
cleared for cattle grazing.
Three permanent plots of 1 ha have been established and inventoried at Jatun
Sacha; in these plots, Iriartea was among the ten most frequently encountered tree
species with diameter at breast height (dbh; 1.3 m above ground level) greater than 10
cm. In the upland site, 107 individuals of this species were found; in a stream valley plot,
44; and in the alluvial plain plot, 13 (Neill et al. 1993). Soil types found at the Jatun
Sacha include typic dystropept in the upland plot, fluventic dystropept in the stream
valley, and typic tropofluvent in the floodplain (Neill et al. 1993).
Additional research among harvesters and carpenters was conducted in Pastaza
Province, in or near the provincial capital of Puyo. Puyo is located on the Rio Pastaza
(01 30' S; 78 05' W) at an elevation of about 900 m. Forested areas near Puyo are
classified as a tropical wet forest (Holdridge 1967) with annual rainfall of 4000 mm and
mean annual temperature of 22 C.


29
Biological Characteristics of Iriartea deltoidea
This species was chosen for study both because of its current and potential
economic usefulness and its abundance in lowland Ecuador. The palm is found from
Nicaragua to Bolivia (but only in the western Amazon basin of South America) at
elevations from sea level to 1300 m (Henderson 1990). It is abundant both along ridges
(Parker and Carr 1992) and near streams (Balslev et al. 1987). Numerous stilt roots form
a cone up to 2 m tall at the base of the palm's stem and presumably provide secure
anchoring in the unstable soils found where the palm is abundant-both on steep slopes
and along streams.
Stems of reproductively mature individuals are 10 30 m tall, solitary, and
unbranched. The hardness of the outer stem is responsible in large part for the economic
usefulness of the palm; for example, in her study of Iriartea in Acre, Brazil, Pinard
(1993) reported that flooring made from the palm lasted up to 25 years. The fibers of the
outer stem are often densely lignified while the center is quite soft, and the modulus of
elasticity increases with fiber cell wall thickness to a maximum of 3.5 X 1010 N/m2 (Rich
1987). The outer portions of the stems are split into planks for use in construction while
the soft, inner core is generally discarded. Tannins darken the lignified, outer fibers,
adding to the beauty of the wood and increasing its value for handicrafts and furniture. In
addition to tannins in the stem, secondary compounds in the leaves include saponins,
cardiac glycosides, and triterpenoids2 while the roots contain tannins and triterpenoids (V.
2Triterpenoids are "phytosteroids" i.e. they have the same basic structure as steroids that
act as hormones in animals. They are lipophilic in that they can be found associated with
other fatty substances in plant tissue (A. Hanneman, pers. comm.; Robinson 1991).


30
H. Villacrs, Universidad Central de Quito, pers. comm.). The palm is also valued as a
fish poison and aphrodisiac (Duke and Vasques 1994); root extracts are lethal to fish (LD
50) at a concentration of 5 g/kg for 3 hours (V. H. Villacrs, pers. comm.).
The leaf morphology of Iriartea varies from seedlings to juvenile to adult.
Seedling eophylls are entire, juvenile leaves are pinnately compound in a single plane,
and adult leaves are divided into leaflets arranged in several planes, called "multilayer"
leaves by Rich et al. (1995). Adult individuals are easily identified in the field by their
characteristic plumose leaves (Figure 2-1), usually numbering from four to seven
(Henderson et al. 1995). Immature inflorescences of Iriartea are covered by bracts with a
characteristic horn shape that also facilitates identification of adults. Flowers are usually
borne in triads with two male flowers on either side of the central female flower;
staminate anthesis precedes pistillate anthesis (Henderson 1990).
First reproduction occurs when Iriartea are approximately 10 m tall and the crown
is composed of leaves with adult, multilayer morphology. In a study that included
Iriartea at La Selva, Costa Rica, adult multilayer leaves were found on only 40% of
individuals from 10-15 m tall, except near canopy gaps were light levels were high (Rich
et al. 1995). It is possible that light levels are higher throughout Jatun Sacha than in La
Selva. Occasionally, I observed individuals 10 m tall with no evidence of reproduction,
but I found no evidence of reproduction among individuals shorter than 10 m. I found
inflorescences with only staminate flowers, unlike the expected bi-sexual structure
composed of triads of male and female flowers (Figure 2-2) for 8 individuals within my
study plots. These male inflorescences grew on individuals 10 12 m tall, found in low


31
Figure 2-1. Photograph of the crown and fruits of an adult Iriartea.


32
Figure 2-2. Bisexual (top) and male only (bottom) inflorescences of Iriartea.


33
light conditions. Given the low frequency of individuals with only male flowers, I
disregarded this possibility when calculating fecundity for the matrix models. I also
observed several individuals in fruit with a remnant of a male inflorescence still attached
to the stem from an earlier flowering event, suggesting a sex change with increasing light
availability as the individual grew taller.
Aspects of the growth and life history of this species has been studied in Costa
Rica (Rich 1985), Brazil (Pinard 1993), and Ecuador (Svenning and Balslev 1997). In
her study using matrix models to investigate the sustainability of harvesting practices in
Brazil, Pinard suggested that Iriartea could be harvested sustainably if only individuals in
the most mature life stage of the palm were felled. In my study of the life history and
population biology of this palm, I use matrix models to determine if current harvesting
levels threaten the future of this abundant resource in Amazonian Ecuador. The research
also focuses on biological factors in the palm's life history that limit regeneration and
potentially provides information useful for management.
Research Questions
This chapter focuses on stocks and flows of Iriartea by attempting to answer the
following questions: "Where is it?" "How much is there? and "How is it likely to
change over time?" Simulations of several possible harvesting intensities may help
answer these questions by exploring the biological potential for sustainable harvesting
given current growth, reproduction, and mortality rates. Testing silvicultural treatments
that enhance growth rates and reproduction or reduce mortality rates can also be useful.
To develop the simulations, I carried out studies of population dynamics (growth,


34
reproduction, and mortality) and population structure (density of size classes or stages) of
Iriartea populations under several conditions.
Where is it? To determine the principal range of habitat types in which Iriartea
grows, I collected demographic data from five plots (20 x 50 m) in each of three forest
types. The forest types included secondary forest areas that were crop land 30 years prior
to my study, areas that I refer to as mature forests, and mature forests with steep slopes or
streams that created a more open canopy. I call this latter forest type "dissected"
indicating the area is cut by irregular ridges, valleys, and stream beds. In addition to
studying forest populations, I collected information from areas currently in agricultural
use where Iriartea had been left standing. Because there were no individuals <12 m tall
and because no seedlings survived in the agricultural areas (although adults produced
fruits and some seeds germinated near adults), I could not carry out meaningful matrix
analysis on these plots. I used my observations in these pastures to understand the lack of
regeneration.
How much is there? I counted individuals within the plots described above, then
converted the census to a per hectare basis. The demographic data collected include
height, diameter, reproductive status, and leaf shape. The individuals were assigned to
size classes based on height for the matrix analysis. (See the Appendix for more details
about matrix models.) I used matrix analysis to determine the finite rate of population
increase (lambda or A.) with data from these 15 plots (5 per forest type). A population can
be expected to grow if X> 1.0, decline if A<1.0, and remain constant if A= 1.0. In


35
addition to counting individuals within plots, I studied variables important for population
dynamics, including adult reproduction, seed germination, growth and mortality rates.
How is the population likely to change over time? Change in the availability of
Iriartea may be addressed by asking, "How can demographic studies inform management
decisions within the context of changing land use and forest conversion?" Changes in
land use, especially conversion of forests to agricultural use as crop land or pastures as
well as abandonment of those pastures, may have more impact on the survival of Iriartea
populations than changes in harvesting practices. The effects of land use change on the
palm have been observed by other authors who note that this species is often left behind
in pastures, but does not regenerate in them (e.g., Pedersen 1994). The process of
converting forest to pasture then to fallows, especially the number of Iriartea spared in
this process, can be a critical factor in potentially sustainable management of the species
as an NTFP if secondary forests return after pastures are abandoned. I used matrix
models to simulate harvesting and return times from mature, secondary, and dissected
forests. I also investigated the effects of pasture conversion on Iriartea by observations
of pastures, experiments with seeds and seedlings in pastures, and simulations of pasture
clearing.
Investigating traditional management practices with regard to this palm may also
help to understand its role in the agricultural diversification that Alcorn (1990) considers
the "self-insurance" of farmers. Diversification works as insurance in that if one crop
fails or the price of one crop is lower than expected, other crops can help reduce financial
losses. Another way of thinking about diversification is that the approach is a hedging


36
technique, analogous to investing in a mutual fund, for spreading the risk among the
natural resource assets in an agricultural and forestry-based portfolio. Leaving this palm
standing when a pasture is cleared means a resource is saved for future use in
construction or for sale when cash is needed to offset crop failures. Joyal (1996) refers to
this management practice as "sparing." Iriarlea is also sometimes left when pastures and
agricultural plots are cleared because of potential future cash value, because they provide
limited shade without taking up much space, and because sparing them spares the farmer
the hard work of cutting the stem of this palm. Because some animals are also attracted
to its fruit, farmers who are also hunters may spare the palm. Iriartea also fits within the
system of agriculture by requiring an investment of labor only when cash is needed. This
NTFP grows without cultivation while farmers are busy with crops, but is available when
they have time, much like farmers who tap rubber in seasonally in a process of
"intermittent exploitation" (Dove 1993b) or workers who seasonally shift from harvesting
chicle (Martilleara zapota) to allspice (Pimenta dioica) to xate (Chamdorea spp.) in
Guatemala (Nations 1992).
Methods
The objective of my study was first to explore the stability of Iriartea populations,
based on the value of X calculated using matrix models (X= 1 suggests a stable
population). I then simulated the consequences of three types of harvesting in three
different forest types found at Jatun Sacha. The first type of harvesting was based on the
effects of sustained harvesting at increasing intensities by systematically reducing the
survival probabilities for adult stages with individuals > 15 m tall. In the second type of


37
harvesting simulation, I reduced the number of adults > 15 m tall from the observed
frequencies to 0 (zero) to simulate a one-time, total harvest in each forest type. In the
final harvesting simulation, I estimated the effects of one-time pasture clearing, in which
individuals < 15 m were cut, those > 15 m were spared, and growing conditions changed
over time.
I also attempted to provide useful management information by conducting
experiments on lriartea regeneration in pastures and by examining the effects of crown
exposure to light to estimate the potential effects of crown liberation treatments on
growth and regeneration. To understand the range of growth rates without management
interventions, I calculated cumulative ages and size class durations based on fast, mean,
and slow growth rates for pooled data from the three forest types. These data were used
to indicated the range of growth rates and ages possible for lriartea in this region.
Transition Matrices
My analyses of lriartea population dynamics were based on transition matrices in
which P, is the probability of surviving and remaining in a size class; G,, the probability
of surviving and growing into the next class; and F,, the fecundity rate, the potential
reproductive contribution of an individual and includes (for plants) both seed production
and survival probabilities of germinants. These transitions may be depicted graphically in
life history diagrams (Figure 2-3). To calculate transition matrices needed to evaluate
population stability and to carry out simulations, I calculated parameters for population
dynamics (fecundity, growth, and mortality) from a variety of sources (Table 2-1) and
determined population structure based on five 0.1 ha plots in each of three forest types


38
Figure 2-3. Example of a life cycle diagram. Circles (nodes) represent size classes or
stages while arcs survival, p¡, growth to a new stage, g,, or fecundity, f¡. For this study of
Iriartea, size classes were defined as follows: 0 = seedlings, 1 = 0.2 0.5m, 2 = 0.5 05
m, 3 = 5 10 m, 4 = 10 15 m, 5 = 15 20 m, and 6 = >20m.


39
Table 2-1. Research objectives, methods, and sources of data for each element of the
demographic study.
Objective
Method
Sample Source
Sample Size
Describe
population
structure
Census of size classes
(by height)
3 forest types
within JS (Jatun
Sacha)
5 plots per forest
type
Describe
population
dynamics
Fecundity
Count infructescences
3 forest types in
JS
5 plots per forest type
Germination study
Nursery in JS
150 seeds
Literature search
Losos(1995)and
Jordan (1973) in Peru
Seedling survival
Nursery in JS
600 germinated seeds
Growth
Annual leaf
production
Combined forests,
by size class &
crown exposure
1995: 50 < 10 m tall
& 10 > 20 m tall;
1996: 30 < 10m &
10 > 10m
Internode
measurement
Combined forests
in JS
Napo and Pastaza
Provinces
50 < 10 m
20 > 10 m
Mortality
seedling survival
Combined forests
1994: 66 seedlings
1995: 88 seedlings
0.2- 10 m
Combined forests
in JS
1995: 50 (2yrdata)
1996: 30 (1 yr data)
> 10 m
Combined forests
in JS;
1 ha plots;
Literature search
1995: 10 (2 yr data)
1996: 10 (1 yrdata)
inventory after 5
years
Pinard (1993)


40
Table 2-1--continued
Objective
Method
Sample Source
Sample Size
Acquire
management
information
Forest type
differences
Measurements of
canopy heights,
slopes, exposure
classes, size classes,
reproduction
3 forest types in
JS
5 plots per forest type
Potential for
liberation
treatments
Comparisons of
growth and
reproduction by
crown exposure
ANOVA by size
class and
exposure category
Combined forests
Potential for
pasture
restoration
Seed germination and
seedling survival for
4 months
ANOVA tests of
weeding and
shading
3 pastures with 5
replicates of 10 seeds
and 5 seedlings
within Jatun Sacha. I calculated fecundity (F,) as the product of the mean number of
infructescences for each adult size class in each forest type, the mean number of fruit per
infructescence, and the germination and seedling survival rate observed in nursery
experiments (germination for six months and survival for six months to give an annual
rate). Annual growth (G¡) and survival (P¡) were based on annual leaf production for each
size and crown exposure class multiplied by the mean internode length per meter of stem
height. Growth rates for each size class within each of the three forest types were based
on the weighted means of annual leaf production for each exposure category. The
weighted means were in turn based on the mean fractions of each size class and crown


41
exposure combination found in the five plots in each forest type (Table 2-2 and Table 2-
3).
Mortality (1-(G¡ + P,)) was calculated separately for seedlings, juveniles, and
adults. For seedlings, I based mortality on the deaths of seedlings tagged in forest plots in
1994 and 1995. For juveniles 0.2 10 m, I calculated mortality based on deaths among
individuals in the annual growth sample. For adults, I combined data from my annual
growth sample and a five year inventory of permanent plots within Jatun Sacha to
determine an annual mortality rate for individuals > 10 m tall. Because mortality is low
among adults, combining information sources was necessary to arrive at a more accurate
estimate of the annual rate.
Population structure (the density of individuals within each of the size classes)
was observed in 5 plots in each of 3 forest types. Within these plots, I recorded height,
diameter, leaf form, crown exposure (for juveniles and adults), and reproductive output
(the number of inflorescences, infructescences, and immature flower buds) for adults. To
determine the extent to which the three forest types were different, I compared them on
the basis of canopy height, slope, population structure of Iriartea, and reproduction
among adults. Because these comparisons among the three forest types were carried out
within a single research station and were conducted within a single year, I set alpha = 0.10
to determine statistical significance.
Ideally, an analysis of the life history of an organism would be based on following
a cohort of individuals through their entire life cycle, but this ideal is much more practical


42
Table 2-2. Annual leaf production for each exposure category within each size class and
the percent of each combination observed within 5 plots in each of 3 forest types. Crown
exj)osure^va^ioUjecordecyttfseedlinj|s^^_____^_______^s___^_^^
Size Class
Exposure
leaves/year
% mature
% secondary
% dissected ||
0 (seedling)
3
0.700
4
0.688
5
0.438
1 (0.2-0.5 m)
2
1.300
25%
16.1%
45.5%
3
0.929
53.6%
36.4%
4
0.750
75%
28.6%
18.2%
5
1.000
01.8%
2 (0.5 -5 m)
2
1.000
25.0%
07.1%
3
1.016
40%
56.3%
50%
4
1.334
40%
06.3%
42.9%
5
1.251
20%
12.5%
3(5- 10 m)
2
1.584
50%
12.5%
3
1.501
57.1%
50%
41.7%
4
2.001
42.9%
45.8%
4(10- 15 m)
1
3.063
14.3%
08.7%
2
2.750
14.3%
66.7%
21.7%
3
3.000
71.4%
33.3%
47.8%
4
3.000
21.7%
5 (15-20 m)
1
2.750
33.3%
71.4%
25%
2
2.500
46.7%
28.6%
35%
3
2.750
20.0%
40%
6 (> 20 m)
1
2.667
55.6%
50%
58.3%
2
2.750
33.3%
50%
41.7%
3
2.688
-LLi2t


43
Table 2-3. Annual leaf production rate used in calculations of transition probabilities for
each forest type based on the weighted mean of leaf production by size class and exposure
category. For size classes 1-3, N is based on counts within 10x50 m subplots; for size
classes 4-6, N is based on 20x50 m plots (not the per hectare means used elsewhere).
Size
Class
Overall
Mean
leaves/year
Mature Forest
mean (N)
Secondary
Forest
mean (N)
I
Dissected
Forest
mean (N)
0
0.615
0.615
0.615
0.615
1
0.966
0.888 (4)
0.940 (56)
1.070 (11)
2
1.099
1.190 (5)
1.062 (16)
1.151 (14)
3
1.583
1.786 (7)
1.786 (2)
1.720 (24)
4
3.000
2.973 (7)
2.833 (3)
2.948 (23)
5
2.750
2.633 (30)
2.679 (7)
2.663 (20)
-
2-697 1271
S.7Q8 (2)
2-702 M21|
for individual researchers in studies of short-lived animals, annual plants, or bacteria than
with long-lived organisms. In many species, reaching the appropriate size to reproduce is
more important than living a particular number of years (Caswell 1989). Furthermore,
perennial plants such as trees are often better characterized by size (or stage) than by age
for both reproductive and survival parameters (e.g., Burgman et al. 1993).
Although my analysis of Iriartea populations is based on stages, (e.g., seedling,
juvenile, adult) and size classes, rather than ages, some indication of the time periods
involved in the growth of the palm can be useful in understanding and evaluating
projections of population change as well as recovery time after harvesting. While there are
no annual growth rings from which to calculate the age of palms, age estimates can be
based on annual leaf production rates and the number of leaf scars remaining on the stem


44
of the palm (Comer 1966; Sarukhn 1978). The duration of stages used in a matrix
analysis can then be calculated from scar counts and annual leaf production rates.
To simplify the discussion of size classes, I refer to individuals 0.2 10 m tall as
juveniles and those over 10 m tall as adults when these categories are biologically
meaningful (Table 2-4). For example, first reproduction occurs after the palm reaches 10
m; therefore, I refer to adults, rather than size classes 4 6, in discussions of reproduction.
Table 2-4. Life stages, size classes, leaf forms, and age at the time of exit from the size
class for each height category of Iriartea. First reproduction generally occurs when
individuals reach the height of 10 m.
Stage
Size Class
Stem Height
Leaf Form
Estimated Age
(in years)
seedling
0
0 0.2 m
eophyll
34
juvenile
1
0.2-0.5 m
compound
41
2
0.5 5 m
63
3
5 10 m
74
adult
4
10 15m
multilayer
80
5
15 -20 m
92
6
> 20 m
142
Are Forest Types Different?
Given that Iriartea is both abundant and widely distributed both geographically
and ecologically in the neotropics, understanding its potential as a sustainable NTFP
across a range of habitat types seems important. In this study, I selected five plots in each
of three forest types: mature forest, secondary forest, and dissected, mature forest with
streams or steep ridges (Alder and Synnott 1992; Berner 1992). As a means of quantifying


45
differences among these forest types, I measured canopy heights on a 5x5 m grid within
each plot (at 55 points per plot), following the techniques described by Welden et al.
(1991). After measuring the highest living vegetation above each comer point with a
range finder, I also assigned a canopy height, taken from the closest point, to adults and
juveniles within the plots to determine under what canopy heights Iriartea are likely to
grow. I measured slope at six points along the midline of each 20x50 m plot to quantify
differences in topography of the three forest types.
Population Structure
Do Size Class Frequency Distributions Differ by Forest Type? To determine
the number of individuals in each size class, I established 5 nested plots in each of 3 forest
types of 50x20 m for adult Iriartea, 50x10 m for juveniles, and 10x2 m for seedlings. To
avoid establishing plots in areas without Iriartea, I located plots where I found at least one
adult Iriartea. 1 selected only individuals growing 300-3000 m away from buildings and
at least 10 m away from trails. These individuals marked the beginning of the midline of
each plot. I oriented plots by selecting a random compass direction pointing away from
the trail. I measured palm heights using a telescoping pole up to 7.5 m and a range finder
for taller individuals. Using calipers, I measured stem diameter above the root cone or, for
small individuals without a root cone, at ground level. I also described the light conditions
of each individual using modified Dawkins crown exposure categories: l=emergent,
2=full overhead light, 3=some overhead light, 4=some side light, and 5=no direct light
(Alder and Synnott 1992).


46
Population Dynamics
Annual growth. I marked the youngest leaf of a total of 50 understory palms (<10
m tall) near trails, then counted the number of new leaves one year later; I monitored new
leaf production for a second year for 70 individuals < 10 m tall. To determine mean leaf
production rates for adults, I identified 10 palms > 10 m tall with crowns that were easily
visible and recorded the emergence of new leaves monthly for two years. I added 10 more
individuals > 10 m in the second year of my study and recorded new leaves for one year. I
described light conditions for these palms using the modified Dawkins crown exposure
categories described above.
I measured intemode lengths of 5 individuals for each observed size and crown
exposure category (e.g., there were no emergent seedlings; no adults > 20 m without direct
light). Individuals < 10 m tall were also sample members in my study of annual growth,
described above; taller individuals were destructively harvested. Because harvesting is not
allowed within the research station, and too few adults died during my research to allow
for opportunistic measurements there, intemode lengths for individuals > 10 m were
measured outside the boundaries of Jatun Sacha in Napo Province or in nearby Pastaza
Province. These individuals were selected with harvesters who later sold or used the
stems. Because the two provinces are adjacent, and there is a gradual gradient of
elevation, rainfall, and temperature between them, I assume that intemode lengths are
similar for Iriartea in the two provinces.
Fecundity. I determined reproductive patterns for each size class from monthly
phenological observations of flowering and fruiting for one year. The phenological


47
sample was selected from palms visible from trails within Jatun Sacha and distributed
among size classes and crown exposure categories (Table 2-5). The total phenological
sample consisted of 69 individuals.
Table 2-5. Distribution of individuals in the phenological study by size class and crown
exposure category.
Crown Category
10- 15 m
15-20 m
20+ m
total
emergent
3
3
9
15
full overhead light
7
11
3
21
some overhead light
10
10
0
20
|| some side light
10
3
0
13
total
30
27
12
69
I collected 150 seeds and planted then in the Jatun Sacha nursery to determine the
time needed for germination. The seeds were placed in trays and partly covered with
forest soil, watered with rainfall, and shaded by citrus trees. I monitored the seeds for 6
months until germination reached an asymptote.
In July 1995,1 collected 600 seeds that had started to germinate from beneath
palms at Jatun Sacha. No more than 50 seeds were collected near any one adult. The
seeds were planted in 1 liter plastic bags using soil collected from the forest floor and were
placed in the shade of citrus trees and heliconias in the station nursery. Frequent rains
precluded the need for watering. After 6 months, I counted the number of seedlings that
survived.
Mortality. For individuals < 10 m tall, mortality rates are based on deaths
observed during the study of annual growth, described above. For individuals > 10 m tall,


48
additional mortality information was available from the 5 year re-inventories of a 1 ha
permanent plot at Jatun Sacha. From the combined data, I calculated annual mortality
rates to use in calculating survival probabilities in the matrix models.
For an estimate of seedling mortality, I tagged 66 seedlings in 1994 and 88
seedlings in 1995. These seedlings were located in preliminary plots that were used to
develop the research design for the current study. Because the size or shape of these plots
did not conform to the final research design, other data from them were not included in
this study.
Management Information about Regeneration in Pastures
In abandoned pastures still dominated by pasture grasses, primarily molasses grass
(Melinis minutiflor), where fruiting adult Iriartea were present, I set up experiments to
estimate seed and seedling survival with shading and weeding treatments. Survival after
four months was observed as the measure of survival for seeds and transplanted seedlings.
The factors I considered in the experiment were light and the effects of pasture grasses.
Treatments included the following combinations: 1) weeding with shading; 2) no weeding
with shading; 3) weeding with no shading; and 4) no weeding with no shading. This
factorial design was analyzed to determine the main effects of the treatments and their
interactions using analysis of variance. Pastures were the blocking factor of the
experiment.
In the experiments, I planted seeds (n=200) and seedlings with one leaf (n= 100) in
each of 4 grass-dominated pastures that had been abandoned from cattle production
within the previous 1-5 years. The seedlings for this experiment (obtained from the


49
nursery studies of seedling survival) were known to be 1-6 months old. The seeds were
collected from the forest floor and any with evidence of prior germination or infection by
pathogens or predators were discarded. In each pasture, I shaded half the seeds and
seedlings and left the others exposed to full sun. The seeds and seedlings were placed in 1
m2 plots with half of each plot covered by 2 layers of palm leaves suspended .5 m above
the ground. I also weeded the pasture grass in half of each plot, perpendicular to the
shaded area, such that half the weeded area was in full sun, while the other half was
shaded. Each of the 4 pastures held 5 plots. After 4 months, I counted the number of
seeds that had germinated and the number of planted seedlings that had at least one green
leaf. Cows invaded one otherwise abandoned pasture and destroyed one block of the
experiment.
Results and Discussion
Estimating Demographic Parameters
Are forest types different? In this study, I compared the slopes and canopy
heights of plots within each of three forest types and found that my categories were
supported by quantitative measurements. For example, the mean (and standard error) of
slopes in mature forest plots was 8 degrees (2.13); in secondary forest plots, the mean
slope was 5 degrees (2.17), and in dissected forest plots, the mean slope was 16 degrees
(3.91). Canopy heights generally decreased from mature forests (21.83 m) to dissected
forests (19.82 m) to secondary forests (14.49 m). Using ANOVA followed by a Tukey
test, I found that plots in secondary forests had significantly lower canopy heights than the
other two forest types. Although these test revealed no difference between the mature


50
forest and the dissected forest, looking at the fraction of points at different height intervals
might show more of the variation within the three types (Table 2-6).
Table 2-6. Means and ANOVA of forest canopy heights. Tukey contrasts indicate that
secondary forest plots have significantly lower canopy heights than plots in the other two
forests types.
Forest Type
Mean Canopy Height
Std. Error
Mature
21.82 m
1.65
Secondary
14.49 m
1.51
Dissected
19.82 m
0.45
Source of variation
df
ms
[7I
Between Groups
02
71.87
8.29
.0055
1 Within Groups
12
08.67
Using measurements from the 55 points within each 20x50 m plot, I found that the
fraction of points at which I measured the canopy to be 0 5 m was 0.01 in mature forests;
0.12 in secondary forests; and 0.05 in dissected forests (Figure 2-4). The fraction of points
where canopy height measurements were 25 30 m was 0.39 in mature forest plots; 0.09,
in secondary forest plots; and 0.31 in dissected forest plots. Dissected forests had more
points from 0 5 m and from 10 20 m than mature forests on flat terrain. The pattern of
heights in dissected forests seem to differ from that of both mature and secondary forests,
but the difference is not significant based on this measure.


51
0.5
a
I -4
a
I 0.3
C/
C
o
a- 0.2
<*-
o
c
o
S o.l
£
0
Mature B Secondary Dissected
0 5 m 5-10 m 10-15 m 15-20 m 20-25 m 25-30 m
Height Intervals
Figure 2-4. Fraction of points measured within each height interval in three forest types.


52
Does the distribution of life stages vary by forest type? I found that the density
of juveniles was higher and that of adults was lower in secondary forests compared with
the two mature forest types (p=.05 based on the results of a Tukey HSD test following
ANOVA). The two mature forest types did not differ from each other at this level of
significance. Seedling density did not differ significantly among the three forest types.
Because I observed higher densities of juveniles in secondary forests, I assume that more
juveniles survive in secondary forests than under mature forest. Although the differences
in densities of juveniles might be caused by a pulse of germination in the recent past or
slower growth rates, because of the lengthy duration of the seedling stage it seems more
likely that the observed differences in juvenile density are the result of higher juvenile
survival rates, rather than greater germination, in secondary forests. In dissected forests,
the distribution of life stages forms a more nearly reverse J-shaped curve than in other
forest types (Figure 2-5). Because the number of seedlings did not differ among the three
forest types, subsequent analyses focus on juvenile and adult (size classes 1 6)
distribution, while only adults (size classes 4-6) are included in the analysis of
reproduction.
Do size class frequency distribution differ by forest type? While inspection of
life stages gives a broad overview of differences in population structure among the three
forest types, focusing on size class differences allows clarification of finer grained
changes. To determine if size classes are represented differently among the three forest
types (Figure 2-6), I used three Kolmogorov-Smimov 2-sample tests on all possible
combinations of forest type and found that the distributions were significantly different


53
secondary dissected
Forest Types
seedlings juveniles adults
Figure 2-5. Mean ( SE) number of Iriartea seedlings (size class 0), juveniles (size
classes 1-3), and adults (size classes 4-6) per hectare in three forest types.


54
Figure 2-6. Mean ( SE) number of Iriartea individuals per hectare in size classes 1-6 in
three forest types (n=5 plots per forest type).


55
(p < .0001). (In this study, I used size classes based on height, but given that diameter is
generally easier to measure and that a regression of height and diameter produced an r
square value of .83,1 would encourage testing the relationship between height and
diameter in future studies of stilt-rooted palms.)
The number of individuals within a size class differs most dramatically among the
forest types in the juvenile (0.2 0.5 m) size class. The high relative abundance of these
individuals in secondary forests in contrast with mature forests (and their absence from
pastures) suggests this species may fit the category of climax species that benefit from
shade for seedling establishment, but also benefit from increased light levels (usually from
canopy gap formation) to release seedlings and juveniles (Whitmore 1989). If this is
correct, the implication is that secondary forests, with higher light levels, allow seedlings
to be released and survive to become juveniles at higher rates than in mature forests.
Older juveniles and younger adults must tolerate shade as the forest grows around them.
In mature forests, relatively few juveniles were found, perhaps survivors of canopy gaps
that have now closed. In dissected mature forests, higher mean densities of individuals 0.5
-15 m tall suggest a spatial mixture of light levels providing sufficient light to release
juveniles with enough shade to encourage seedling establishment.
Population Dynamics
Does reproduction differ among forest types? To determine whether the
number of seedlings and juveniles was correlated with the density of adults with the
potential to reproduce, I compared the proportion of adults found in each forest type. In
mature forests, 67% of individuals, other than seedlings, were adults (> 10 m tall); in


56
secondary forests, 8% were adults; and in forests with varied terrain, 36% were adults. I
compared the proportion of adults with mature fruits at the time of the census in each
forest type to understand if the number of reproductive adults in a given year differed
among forest types. I chose mature fruits (full sized and brown in color) because adults
with infructescences in this stage could reasonably contribute to reproduction within the
current year. Most adults that did not have mature fruits had flowers or immature fruits
that might take more than a year to ripen. I found no differences among forest types in the
proportions of adults with mature fruits (p=.914). To determine if reproductive adults in
the three types produced different amounts of fruit within a year, I compared the mean
number of fruits per ha (based on the fraction of fruiting adults, mean number of
infructescences per fruiting adult, and the mean fruits per infructescence) within the three
forests (Figure 2-7). Using ANOVA followed by a Tukey test, I found that mature forests
differ from secondary and dissected forests in the amount of fruit produced (pc.001).
Reproduction, therefore, differs among forest types and differences in reproduction among
forest types apparently depends on different abundances of adults and the amount of fruit
produced per reproductive adult.
Does reproduction differ among size classes? If size classes differ in fruit
production, differences in reproduction among forest types may depend on the distribution
of size classes within the forests. The mean number of infructescences observed growing
on individuals 10 15 m tall was 0.48; the mean on individuals 15 20 m tall was 0.91;
and the mean on individuals > 20 m tall was 1.32. An ANOVA indicates that the mean
number of infructesences per adult differs among size classes (p=.0725) with 10 15 m


57
Figure 2-7. Mean ( SE) of lriartea fruits, seedlings, and juveniles per ha in mature,
secondary, and dissected forest types (n= 5 plots per forest type).


58
individuals producing significantly fewer, using an LSD test. In a two-factor ANOVA
using forest and size class with arcsine transformed proportions (Table 2-7), reproduction
was significantly greater for taller size classes (p=.087), but did not differ by forest type.
Table 2-7. Two-factor ANOVA using forest and size class with arcsine transformed
proportions of reproductive adults.
Source of variation
df
ms
f
P
Forest
2
.01
.06
.946
Size class
2
.49
2.64
.087
1 Within + Residual
32
.19
Flowering phenology. In a study of adult reproductive phenology (November
1995 through October 1996), I found that 59 of 69 (86%) individuals flowered at least
once (Figure 2-8). Two of the ten non-flowering individuals were, surprisingly, emergent
palms > 20 m tall. One of these individuals had mature fruit at the beginning of the study,
but became infirm and produced neither new leaves nor open inflorescences. The other
emergent palm had 3 infructescences with mature fruit and a large inflorescence bud that
did not open within the time of the study. Most of the other non-flowering palms were in
the 10 15 m size class and were in the crown exposure class with only some side light.
Because flowering is primarily an annual event (although some individuals did
flower more than once during the year of observation), I assume the population of Iriartea
is characterized by an annual birth pulse in conducting the matrix analysis. The period


59
N D J '96 F M A M J '96 J 96 A S O
'95 95 96 96 96 96 96 96 96
Figure 2-8. Reproductive phenology from November 1995 through October 1996 (top)
and mean monthly rainfall for the same period (November 1995 through October 1996 and
long-term monthly means for the yearsl986 1994 (bottom).


60
from March June, when I observed fewest open flowers, corresponds to the period with
greatest mean monthly rainfall based on records for the years 1986-1994, did not open
within the time of the study. Most of the other non-flowering palms were in the 10 15 m
size class and were in the crown exposure class with only some side light.
Because flowering is primarily an annual event (although some individuals did
flower more than once during the year of observation), I assume the population of Iriartea
is characterized by an annual birth pulse in conducting the matrix analysis. The period
from March June, when I observed fewest open flowers, corresponds to the period with
greatest mean monthly rainfall based on records for the years 1986-1994.
Seed germination and seedling survival. In a greenhouse study, 81 of 150 (54%)
of seeds germinated within six months (Figure 2-9). An earlier study by Jordan (1970) of
palms in northeastern Peru, based on two groups of 100 seeds each, found germination at
the rates of 79% and 18%. In a study in Peru, 3000 Iriartea seeds were planted in forest
plots, 937 established seedlings that survived one year (Losos 1995). Little insect damage
to seeds was reported in another study in Peru (Kiltie 1981) while Losos (1995) found
15% invertebrate predation in her study. In nursery experiments using 600 germinated
seeds, 368 seedlings (61%) survived six months.
Growth rates. Annual growth rates for palms in each size class, based on the
mean intemode length per meter of stem height (Table 2-8) and the annual leaf production
rate (Figure 2-10), provide an estimate of cumulative age and size class duration. For
example, individuals 5 m tall are estimated to have grown at a composite rate made up of


61
Figure 2-9. Seeds germinated within six months in nursery experiments conducted
outdoors with shade provided by citrus trees and heliconias and water by rainfall.


62
Table 2-8. Mean intemode length per meter of stem height.
Meter of Stem
Mean (cm)
S.E.
N
1
04.96
0.96
50
2
23.12
1.47
32
3
28.28
1.63
32
4
29.17
1.70
29
5
29.14
1.62
28
6
30.32
1.53
26
7
29.88
1.57
24
8
29.50
1.92
21
9
28.90
1.98
21
10
28.91
1.81
18
11
29.21
2.11
18
12
28.30
2.22
17
13
28.56
1.94
16
14
26.75
2.17
16
15
24.23
2.37
15
16
21.78
2.55
12
17
21.28
1.96
11
18
17.00
2.00
11
19
16.41
2.73
11
20
12.17
1.85
10
mean for >20
07.91
1.00
10


63
Figure 2-10. Mean (( SE) annual leaf production by size class.


64
the growth rate for seedlings, juveniles 0.2-0.5 ra, and juveniles 0.5 5 m (Table 2-9). As
expected, growth rates increase with height until the tallest stages (Figure 2-11).
Table 2-9. Annual growth, size class duration, and cumulative age per size class
assuming slow, mean, and fast growth rates for all size classes.
m/yr
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
slow
0.01
0.05
0.30
0.44
0.77
0.40
0.20
mean
0.01
0.06
0.27
0.47
0.82
0.50
0.20
fast
0.01
0.09
0.36
0.59
0.85
0.51
0.21
II yrs/class
slow
47.40
9.95
20.0
11.3
6.10
10.1
50.5
mean
33.60
7.69
22.0
10.6
6.50
11.3
50.5
fast
29.80
5.74
16.6
8.5
5.90
9.7
48.7
age
slow
47.4
57.35
77.35
88.65
94.75
104.85
155.35
mean
33.6
41.29
63.29
73.89
80.39
91.69
142.19
fast
29.8
35.54
52.14
60.64
66.54
76.24
124.94
Mortality. A composite annual mortality rate for seedlings, based on deaths
among marked individuals in forest plots, observed for one (n=88) or two years (n=66),
was 0.5398 deaths yr '. By the end of second year, 45 of the 66 seedlings tagged in 1994
had died and 65 of the 88 tagged in 1995 had died. The overall mortality rate was based
on the mean of annual mortality for each group.
Because mortality rates were so low for size classes 1-6, these classes were
grouped into juvenile and adult stages for calculating mortality rates. The annual mortality


65
Figure 2-11. Annual growth rates assuming slow, mean, and fast growth rates.


66
rate for juveniles (n=35) was 0.0286 deaths yr'1, and for adults (n=79), the rate was 0.0237
deaths yr1.
Many studies in plant population biology report that mortality is highest for small
size classes because individuals within them are vulnerable to a variety of dangers (e.g.,
Horvitz and Schemske 1995; Sarukhn 1980). For example, in areas where little hunting
occurs, seeds can be damaged when fruit is eaten, and seedlings are vulnerable to
trampling by large animals, while in areas with fewer animals, survival rates may be
greater (Dirzo and Miranda 1991; Janzen and Martin 1982; Redford 1992). In contrast,
survival might increase in areas with the right kinds of animals. For example, the palm
Maximilliana maripa (now Attalea maripa) benefits from dispersal away from the parent
plant by tapirs (Fragoso 1997). While some studies have documented a decline in plant
populations following a decline in animal disperser populations (Chapman et al. 1992),
others have argued for a looser connection between fruit and disperser (Howe 1985) or for
the importance to ecosystem function of substitution rather than specialization in
consumers (Lindeman 1942).
Management Information
Crown exposure categories. To understand the potential for management
interventions to encourage growth of Iriartea, such as liberation thinning to increase the
available light level, I carried out analyses of the distribution of individuals, fruit
production, and growth rates by exposure category (Figure 2-12). Annual leaf production
increased dramatically for individuals that reached the full overhead light and emergent


67
3.5
1 2 3 4 5 6
Size Classes
emergent full overhead 03 some overhead
some side light no direct light
Figure 2-12. Mean ( SE) annual leaf production rates by crown exposure category. (See
Table 2-3 for sample sizes.)


68
categories (ANOVA, p < .0001), but these individuals were also > 14 m tall (size classes
4-6). In tests to determine if exposure class or height was responsible for the increased
growth, I found no significant differences among exposure classes when size class was
held constant, although in size class 4 (10 15 m) a larger sample size might have revealed
differences (ANOVA, p = 1114, n=5). For the smallest individuals (< 0.5 m tall), the
growth rate was significantly greater for individuals with higher exposure (ANOVA,
p=.0413, n=35).
Based on my phenological study, non-flowering individuals tended to grow in
areas with less available light. The mean number of infructescences per adult also
increased as exposure increased (p=.0931). Again, when exposure within each size class
was examined, no significant differences were found. Future studies with larger samples
and longer time frames might be able to make finer distinctions and expand on
management implications of higher light levels for increased growth and reproduction. Of
course, pasture experiments suggested that germination and seedling survival can be
diminished by too much exposure.
Pasture Regeneration. In an experiment intended to help understand the potential
for silviculturaliy encouraging seed germination and seedling survival in pastures, I found
significantly more survival where grass was left uncut than where initial weeding was the
treatment. This difference was found both for shaded and unshaded subplots. In plots in
three abandoned pastures, 10% of seeds set out in full sun germinated and survived for
four months (31 of 300), while 17% of those covered by shade germinated (50 of 300).
Interactions with the blocking factor, pasture, were found (Table 2-10). One pasture was


Table 2-10. Two-by-two factorial ANOVA using grass and sun with pasture as the
blocking factor to determine sources of variation in Iriartea seed survival.
69
Source of variation
df
ms
f
P
Pasture
2
.52
.23
.799
Grass
1
14.02
6.12
.017
Sun
1
1.35
.59
.447
Pasture x grass
2
3.02
1.32
.278
Pasture x sun
2
6.35
2.77
.073
Grass x sun
1
.82
.36
.553
Pasture x grass x
sun
2
10.52
4.59
.015
Residual
48
2.29
wetter than others; perhaps this led to an interaction with grass because in other pastures,
grass provided additional shade. This shade could have increased soil moisture, from
which seeds did not benefit in the wetter pasture. In pasture experiments, 63 of 150
seedlings (42%) planted without shade survived four months, while 91 of 150 (65%) of
those covered by shade survived over this time period (Table 2-11).
Harvesting Simulations
In the following section, 1 discuss the consequences of several harvesting
intensities for the sustainability of Iriartea populations using the population dynamics,
described above, as the basis for matrix model projections. Transition matrices for
populations within the three forest types show X> 1.0 in all three forests (Figure 2-13).


70
Table 2-11. Two-by-two factorial ANOVA using grass and sun with pasture as the
blocking factor to determine sources of variation in seedling survival.
1 Source of variation
df
ms
f
P
Pasture
2
20.42
7.34
.002
Grass
1
6.67
2.40
.128
Sun
1
13.07
4.69
.035
Pasture x grass
2
15.12
5.43
.007
Pasture x sun
2
3.82
1.37
.264
Grass x sun
1
.60
.22
.645
Pasture x grass x
sun
2
1.05
.38
.688
Residual
48
2.78


71
Seedling
.2-.5 m
.5-5 m
5-10m
10-15
15-20
>20m
.02231
0
0
0
136
139
289
.00069
.8646
0
0
0
0
0
0
.1054
.9160
0
0
0
0
0
0
.0540
.8646
0
0
0
0
0
0
.1054
.8120
0
0
0
0
0
0
.1629
.8816
0
0
0
0
0
0
.0934
.9552
Mature Forest (A=
1.01)
.02231
0
0
0
253
253
285
.00069
.8643
0
0
0
0
0
0
.1057
.9218
0
0
0
0
0
0
.0482
.8643
0
0
0
0
0
0
.1057
.8197
0
0
0
0
0
0
.1553
.8800
0
0
0
0
0
0
.0950
.9551
Secondary Forest
0=1.14)
.02231
0
0
0
58
200
158
.00069
.8646
0
0
0
0
0
0
.1057
.9178
0
0
0
0
0
0
.0522
.8646
0
0
0
0
0
0
.1014
.8134
0
0
0
0
0
0
.1616
.8806
0
0
0
0
0
0
.0944
.955
Dissected Forest (X= 1.003)
Figure 2-13. Transition matrices for mature, secondary and dissected forests. The top row
of the matrix gives fecundity rates for adult size classes (denoted by F¡). The major
diagonal provides P¡, the probability of surviving and remaining in a size class. The
subdiagonal shows G¡, the probability of surviving and growing into the next class.


72
Stable stage distribution. Although natural populations are unlikely to match the
stable stage distribution, comparing the observed distributions of size classes from the
study plots with the calculated stable stage distribution allows an analysis of the deviation
of the observed population from stability. While X is not a true measure of population
growth if the population is different from the stable distribution, it is positively correlated
with the growth rate (Caswell 1989, 171). In mature forests, I counted fewer juveniles
from 0.2 5.0 m than the stable stage distribution; in secondary forests, I found fewer
individuals from 5.0 15.0, as well as > 20 m; and in dissected forests, I found fewer
individuals 0.5 -5.0 m and > 20 m (Table 2-12).
Sensitivity and elasticity. The relative influence of different population
parameters on the value of X in each of the three forest types makes clear that X is more
sensitive to changes in survival parameters (P¡) than either fecundity (F,) or growth to a
new class (G¡) (Table 2-13). This result is similar to those found in other palm studies
(e.g., Pinard 1993; Piero et al. 1984).
In mature and dissected forests, survival within 0.5 5 m and > 20 m size classes
has most influence on changes in X. In secondary forests, survival in the 0.5 5 m size
class is most important for population stability. In contrast, Pinard (1993) found that
survival rates of palms 5 20 m were most important for stability in the population of
Iriartea she studied in Brazil. This difference might be the result of differences in
growing conditions between the two sites; for example, she reported that individuals
reached reproductive size at 14 m; whereas I observed reproduction beginning with 10 m


73
Table 2-12. Comparison of observed distributions with projected stable stage distribution
in three forest types.
size class
ssd
ssd *
104
observed
difference
% differ
mature
0
0.984
984
942
-22
-2
1
0.005
50
16
-34
-68
2
0.005
50
20
-30
-60
3
0.002
20
28
8
40
4
0.001
10
14
4
40
5
0.001
10
60
50
500
6
0.002
20
54
34
170
secondary
0
0.979
979
588
-291
-30
1
0.005
50
224
174
348
2
0.005
50
64
14
28
3
0.002
20
6
-14
-70
4
0.0009
9
6
-3
-33
5
0.001
10
14
4
40
6
0.002
20
4
-16
-80
dissected
0
0.976
976
708
-168
-17
1
0.005
50
44
-6
-12
2
0.006
60
56
-4
-6
3
0.002
20
96
76
220
4
0.001
10
46
36
360
5
0.002
20
40
20
100
6
0.003
30
24
-6
-20


74
Table 2-13. Elasticity values for survival, growth, and fecundity
|| Forest Type
Survival (P)
Growth (G)
Fecundity (F)
mature
0.873
0.108
0.020
I secondary
0.861
0.116
0.022
dissected
0.879
0.102
0.019
individuals. Although an elasticity analysis was not included in their research on Iriartea,
Balslev and Svenning (1997) argued that a low frequency of juveniles was responsible for
the finding that A < 1.0 for the population they studied. Finding juveniles or subadults
important for population stability is not surprising because individuals in these size classes
have survived the high mortality of the seedling stage yet have all their reproductive
potential ahead of them. More surprising is the importance of individuals > 20 m in
mature and dissected forests. I assume this is a result of the combined effects of low
mortality and continued high reproductive value for this size class (Figure 2-14).
Simulations of sustained harvesting. In simulations of sustained harvesting, X
fell below 1.0 after 10% reductions in survival probabilities for individuals > 15 m tall in
mature and dissected forests and after 20% reductions in survival for the same size class in
secondary forests (Figure 2-15). For example, in a mature forest, increased annual
harvesting of individuals >15 m reduced X (1.01 initially) from 0.987 with a 10% harvest
to 0.966 with 100% harvesting. In secondary forest plots, X was initially 1.014, but fell to
0.996 with a reduction in survival probabilities of individuals > 15 m tall by 20% and to
.980 with reductions of 100%. These changes are consistent with the elasticity analysis of
secondary forests in which I found survival of juveniles had a greater impact on A than


75
Dissected
Figure 2-14. Elasticity analyses indicate that survival, p¡, has most influence on changes in
A in all three forest types. The life cycle diagrams indicate transitions with the greatest
elasticity values.


76
2ndary *
Figure 2-15. Changes in 1 when survival rates are lowered in increments of 10% to
simulate sustained harvesting.


77
fecundity or growth at any stage; therefore, harvesting individuals > 15 m tall has less
effect on A than in mature forests. In mature forests, A was most sensitive to the survival
of palms in the tallest size class; small increases in mortality at this stage reduced A below
1.0.
One-time harvests. In simulations of a total harvest of individuals > 15 m tall, I
found that populations returned to their original densities in mature forests (114
individuals > 15 m tall / ha) after 220 years with no further harvesting; in the secondary
forest plots (18 individuals > 15 m tall / ha), original population densities returned after 15
years; and in dissected forests (64 individuals > 15 m tall / ha), after 14 years (Figure 2-
16). In her study in Acre, Pinard (1993) estimated the Iriartea population there would
recover from similar harvesting in 140 years, although she suggested that the effects of
canopy opening after harvest might encourage more rapid growth and hence more rapid
replacement of individuals.
Clearly the recovery time differences involve more that simply the numbers of
individuals cut. In the mature forest, relatively fewer individuals are available in the
smaller stages to grow and replace the numerous harvested adults. The faster recovery
time in dissected forests is presumably related to the higher densities of juvenile palms
found there. These higher densities may reflect the consequences of slopes and ridges for
growth. On slopes, crowns of trees may receive both full overhead light and lateral light
in contrast with trees on flat ground where usually only overhead light is available to non-
emergents. Tropical foresters emphasize the importance of crown position and crown
exposure for tree growth (Alder and Synnott 1992; Berner 1992). In secondary forest,


78
Figure 2-16. Projected recovery time for a return to observed densities of the two tallest
size classes after one-time harvesting at rates from 10 -100 %.


79
both relatively high densities of juveniles and low original densities of adults allow for
rapid return to pre-harvest frequency distributions after harvesting. In fact, based on
expected survival rates, if the growth continued in the secondary forest for 100 years, 120
adults per ha would be predicted. Of course, environmental factors are unlikely to remain
unchanged over that 100 years even if the area could be set aside and protected from
harvesting. This "secondary forest" was in agricultural use 30 years ago; in 100 years,
future observers might well describe it as "mature" forest.
Simulations of pasture clearing. In a simulation intended to mimic the effects of
pasture clearing, I reduced the density of individuals < 15 m to 0, then followed
regeneration for 80 years after pasture abandonment using the transition matrix for
secondary forests and the density of individuals > 15 m found in secondary forest plots.
Assuming that the forest would be more "mature" after 80 years, I switched to the matrix
for mature forests and after another 40 years, the distribution of individuals among size
classes returned to or exceeded original levels, except for the 0.2-0.5 m class (Table 2-11).
Clearing pastures can disturb a population for an estimated 120 years, even if the tallest
adults are spared.
Analysis of simulations. What do harvesting simulations tell us? Based on the
analysis in which all individuals > 15 m are removed, mature forests are poor choices for
harvesting, in spite of the high numbers of the tallest adults found there. Because
relatively few juveniles grow in mature forests, replacement rates are too slow to
encourage harvesting. Dissected forests can be a poor choice logistically, in spite of the .


80
Table 2-14. Observed mean density of Iriarlea in secondary forest plots (n=5) compared
with projected densities 120 years after simulated pasture clearing and harvesting of all
individuals < 15 m tall
Size Class
Observed
Projected (120
years)
<0.2 m
588
1083
0.2 0.5 m
224
45
0.5 5 m
64
65
5- 10 m
6
25
10- 15m
6
11
15-20 m
14
14
>20 m
4
25
relatively high numbers of the tallest adults and faster replacement rate. The slopes and
ridges that encourage growth can be quite discouraging to human harvesters
Ultimately, the choice left is to concentrate on secondary forests where
regeneration has begun and to look for secondary forests with higher densities of
individuals > 15 m tall. In addition, if sparing smaller adults and juveniles is encouraged
in agricultural land, pastures and fields that are eventually left fallow have the potential to
replace harvested individuals quickly. For example, in a secondary forest with 18
individuals > 15 m / ha (as found in this study), after 15 years, the 18 harvested
individuals will be replaced. With the distribution found at that time (assuming no
additional harvesting or pasture clearing), after another 15 years, 45 individuals > 15 m
should be found in a hectare. If all 45 are harvested and all smaller size classes left to
grow, in 25 years, the 45 individuals > 15 m will once again be replaced.


81
While sparing juveniles and adults 10 15 m tall could make an important
difference in recovery times after forests are cleared for agriculture, a problem exists with
the perception that palms grow quickly. In general, people I spoke with thought Iriartea
could grow from seedling to adult in about 10 years, whereas my results indicate that an
adult Iriartea just beginning to reproduce (about 10 m tall) is likely to be 60 90 years old.
This perception of rapid growth is consistent with findings in other palm studies (Pea
Claros 1996; Pinard 1993), although in Sonora, local people knew that the Sabal uresana
grew slowly (Joyal 1996). Clearly, any effort to encourage management for increased
harvesting of Iriartea will require extension projects to provide more accurate information
about growth rates of the palm and the concomitant need for management practices that
will prevent its extirpation. As with other abundant species, such as buffalo or passenger
pigeons in the US, perceptions of limitless supply can lead to over-exploitation.
Conclusions
This chapter focuses on stocks and flows of Iriartea by attempting to answer the
following questions: "Where is it?" "How much is there?" and "How can demographic
studies inform management decisions within the context of changing land use and forest
conversion?" Simulations of harvesting help answer these questions by exploring the
biological potential for sustainable harvesting given current growth, reproduction, and
mortality rates.
To answer the question, "Where is it? I found Iriartea growing in clumps within
each forest, but in the mature forest, relatively few individuals of intermediate heights
were found. Having few individuals to replace quickly the numerous members of the


82
tallest size class means that recovery time after harvesting is extremely slow in this forest
type. In contrast, in secondary forests, fewer individuals in the tallest size classes were
found, but the abundance of medium-sized individuals should allow rapid recovery to
original adult population densities. In dissected mature forests, higher mean densities of
individuals 0.5 15 m tall than in mature forests suggest the mix of light levels there will
encourage juvenile survival and rapid recovery after harvesting, yet the challenges of
steep slopes or streams for humans have made them unlikely locations for harvesting.
In terms of the potential for sustainable harvesting, targeting mature forests seems
the worst possible alternative. A practical alternative might encourage harvesting from
secondary forests in concert with encouraging agriculturalists to leave standing more 5 -
15 m individuals when pastures are cleared. Increasing local awareness of the time needed
for replacement and incentives to spare smaller individuals could enhance the potential for
harvesting from secondary forests after pastures and agricultural plots are abandoned.
Answering the question, "How much is there?" defines the parameters of the
sustainability discussion. The interpretation of sustainability used here emphasized
maintaining current levels of the resource and understanding pressures affecting its density
and distribution. The population levels described in my research might be quite different
from distributions found a century or even a few decades ago. Sustainability inevitably
involves a decision to choose some point in time as a standard to preserve. Because this
study was conducted for a limited time, the results should be interpreted cautiously,
although my findings were similar to those of Pinard (1993) in most instances.


83
The question, "How can demographic studies inform management decisions within
the context of changing land use and forest conversion?" requires a social as well as
biological answer. (The following chapter addresses some of the social issues.) National
policies of road building and rural electrification bring people closer to markets and
encourage expansion by colonists into frontier areas. People with access to natural
resources then have easier access by road to markets in which to sell products made from
these resources. Clearing agricultural land for pastures or cash crops reduces the numbers
of smaller Iriartea individuals, yet when these pastures are abandoned, secondary forests
may grow up, providing enough shade for seedling survival yet enough sun to encourage
growth and survival of juveniles and small adults. Of course, this regeneration depends on
sparing sufficient Iriartea seed trees when forests are cleared for agriculture. Defining
"sufficient" is not so easy.
Establishing guidelines for conscionable harvesting requires input from all
stakeholders in the decision, not simply an ecological analysis. Such guidelines, if they
are developed, should include provisions for monitoring unanticipated consequences of
harvesting or changes in future environmental conditions. Given the value of spreading
risks in agriculture and the increasing needs for cash among Amazonian settlers, a
sustainable plan for harvesting Iriartea seems worthy of further investigation.
Harvesting Iriartea can fit within current land use. Although clearing agricultural
land is encouraged by new settlement and land tenure policies, within the context of a
variety of pressures to clear land, settlers still have options with regard to the form land
clearing takes. Some forest colonists clear pastures to graze cattle, while others devote


84
land to agriculture, including polycultures of annuals and perennials. In either case, trees,
especially palms, can be left standing. Including trees in pastures or polycultural fields
may reduce the risk of pests somewhat and helps preserve some ecosystem functions
(Ewel and Bigelow 1996). People know that their pastures and agricultural land will not
last forever. Swidden agriculture (slash-and-burn or slash-and-mulch) depends on a fallow
period during which secondary forest may begin to regenerate. These secondary forests
are ideal locations for extraction of NTFPs that fit within the cycle of regeneration in areas
near to human settlement. Sparing Iriartea individuals 5 15 m tall could benefit
agriculture, encourage the sustainability of future harvests, and help ensure the future of
this palm as a part of the Amazonian landscape.


CHAPTER 3
THE DECISION TO HARVEST IRIARTEA IN A CHANGING SOCIAL CONTEXT
Today, the discipline of ecology faces the challenges of enlarging ecological
perspectives to include human values and needs and to identify the major ways in which
managed and natural ecosystems affect each other's long-term well-being. If managed
ecosystems are viewed as integrating a local community with farm, non-farm, and natural
resource (forest, wetland, aquatic) sectors, then research is needed to examine interactions
beyond the farm, forest, or park gate and the impact of social and economic forces. A
world so altered by human activity offers the opportunity and the challenge to expand the
scope of the discipline of ecology (Lubchenco el al. 1991, 395).
Introduction
People living in or near tropical forests often depend on the forest for their
livelihoods. If they can become economically self-sufficient with little damage to the
forest, more forest may be left intact for future generations, thus rendering the goal of
sustainability more likely. While in many ways the likelihood of sustainable harvesting
might seem to depend primarily on biological information to determine optimum
harvesting rates, research to understand social variables is essential to evaluate the
potential for sustainable harvesting. Without this understanding, as well as an
appreciation of the links between social and biological processes (especially when the
social context is undergoing rapid change) predictions about the potential for sustainability
are likely to miss the mark.
85


86
Why Examine Socioeconomic Contexts in Studies of NTFP Harvesting?
In discussing land degradation, social explanations of environmental change are
often necessary (Blaikie and Brookfield 1987). Although physical processes are involved
in the transformation of resources by humans, natural sciences simply cannot provide all
the answers to questions of sustainability. Furthermore, the links between social and
biological pressures on non-timber forest products (NTFPs) are such that increased income
from the development of forest resources is quite likely to encourage change in social and
economic conditions (Dove 1993a). These changes are likely to work to the detriment of
forest-dependent people, especially if the state becomes involved in protecting the interests
of national elites (Blaikie and Brookfield 1987).
In this chapter, I concentrate on socioeconomic issues important for research on
sustainable harvesting of non-timber forest products in the tropics. I develop an example
based in the Amazonian region of Ecuador known as "the Oriente" and focus on current
uses of the palm, Iriartea deltoidea Ruiz & Pavn (hereafter, Iriartea). The question of
whether residents of the Oriente will choose to increase their economic uses of the palm is
critical for the ecological future of this species. Potential forest destruction through
changes in land use may be even more consequential for the palms future. I will discuss
the context in which the individual decision making process is conducted and the national
policies that set limits on individual choice and/or economic behavior through
colonization, road building, and consequent deforestation within Amazonian Ecuador. But
first, I will review an example of the need for understanding social variables as they relate
to harvesting, based on an agroforestry project involving rattan in Indonesia.


87
An Example from Rattan Harvesting
One example of a project that held great promise for sustainable harvesting, based
on ecological factors, was an agroforestry project that apparently fit smoothly within the
local ecological and land tenure systems; nevertheless, economic, political, and social
pressures have led to uncertainty (at best) about the sustainability of this land use
(Weinstock 1983). Indonesia has a long tradition of forest extraction coupled with
swidden agriculture (e.g., Peluso 1992). For example, in East Kalimantan, agricultural
crops are rotated through a 7-15 year fallow cycle by the Dayak people. In addition, they
manage forests for long-lived perennial crops including rubber, coffee, and fruit trees.
Although these crops produce income, they are too slow growing to be cut and replaced by
food crops within the normal fallow cycle. A short term perennial that could be cut and
sold for cash after 7-15 years seemed to be an ideal solution to the need for cash and food
crops. As it turned out, an apparently ideal plant was available.
Rattans (primarily species of Calamus) are fast-growing, climbing palms that occur
naturally in forests regenerating after anthropogenic disturbance and have been used
traditionally for basket making, mats, carpets, and a multitude of other products. Rattans
appeared to be an ideal element (sensu Clay 1992) in an agroforestry project because there
already existed a market for the product, traditional knowledge of its horticulture, and
rules of access to land where the plant could be cultivated. Rattans can be harvested for
market after growing in fallows for 7 15 years, after which the area can be used again for
swidden agriculture. The system of swidden/fallow with rattan worked well until the


88
market exploded with demand for furniture in North America, Europe, and Japan. Prices
doubled between 1976 and 1977; prices tripled between 1977 and 1978 (Peluso 1992).
As demand for rattan products increased, more people worked as traders and
cutters, thereby allowing greater harvests from traditional rattan gardens as well as from
unmanaged populations in natural forests. Migration brought new people into the area
who lacked ties to traditional land tenure systems and cultivation practices. As prices rose,
other crops were neglected; people bought rice, neglected coffee plants and rubber trees,
and devoted their efforts to harvesting rattan too quickly. Eventually the system that
seemed so likely to succeed was out of balance. Peluso (1992, 120) explains that "gangs
of youthful rattan cutters" took rattan by force when access was denied to them.
In 1989, the government established a ban on the export of unfinished rattan,
ostensibly to increase the value of the product before sale outside the country. By
finishing rattan or adding value locally, more profits should be made by Indonesians,
including smallholders, at least in theory. Yet at the same time, the rattan trade essentially
became a concession for the Indonesian Association of Furniture Producers, a group
dominated by national elites (Dove 1993a). With control of the forest product no longer in
the hands of local people, "the forests of East Kalimantan thus epitomize the mess, as it
were, of formal controls superimposed on 'traditional' forms of forest access" (Peluso
1992, 116). Local people retained little control over the resource after government
policies encouraging migration and concentration of wealth disrupted traditional property
systems.


89
This process is not surprising if Blaikie and Brookfield (1987) are correct in their
argument that political economy provides an essential frame of reference for
understanding land degradation. This perspective focuses on the role of the state in
protecting the power of dominant groups and encouraging the accumulation of wealth by
national elites (at the expense of people from the periphery). In effect, the "success" of the
project, if rapidly increasing demand and higher prices define success, has led to changes
in the social and ecological systems and ultimately worsening conditions for the original
tropical forest resource managers, the Dayaks. Political power relationships may alter
cost-benefit analyses when the questions of who benefits and who pays the costs are
included (Salafsky et al. 1993).
Dove (1993a) suggests that this process is historically inevitable when the value of
resources controlled by powerless people increases. This analysis is clearly not an
optimistic one for those of us seeking hopeful alternatives for development. Perhaps one
useful lesson is that even when the ecological variables suggest success, we are unlikely to
establish sustainable projects if we ignore the social and economic institutions that may
affect the ultimate outcome of those projects Moreover, we may also learn to plan
projects that anticipate the consequences of success, especially the expected behavior of
the state and local elites. As we learn from the experience of the rubber tappers of Brazil,
alliances with international organizations may alter expected power relations (e.g.,
Allegretti 1990). Unfortunately even given these lessons, sustainable development seems
no less challenging for future projects. Ongoing research on both ecological and social


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DEMOGRAPHY STEM HARVESTING AND CONSERVATION OF THE PALM IRJARTEADELTOIDEA By PATTI JANE ANDERSON A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE UNNERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY UNNERSITY OF FLORIDA 1998

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Copyright 1998 by Patti Jane Anderson

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This dissertation is dedicated to the memory of my parents, Earl Turner Anderson and Lena Sue Bond Anderson, and to the continuing kindness of strangers

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I sincerely appreciate the efforts of my academic advisor, Francis E. Putz, who provided inspiration guidance and enthusiasm through all stages of the project. I also thank the other m e mbers of m y committee for supervising my project and guiding my academic development. Marianne Schmink introduced me to development theory and encouraged me to work harder and longer in my analy s is. Kimberlyn William s helped me avoid several pitfalls in my biological re se arch and s tatistical analysis. Clyde Kiker helped me appreciate ecological economics and has been unfailingly supportive of my work David Wigston provided a example of the potential for combining ecology and ethnobotany. I am grateful to Scott Mori of the New York Botanical Garden who introduced me to tropical botany, and Mary Jean HolJand of Baruch College, who introduced me to computer modeling in biology ; both have been good friends and mentors. John Oates of Hunter College deserves thank s for l1is co n s i s tent support and thoughtful que s tions that helped me develop my idea s about tropical conservation. I appreciate the discerning observations of John J Ewel and the generous support of Lini Wollenberg David Jones and the staff of the Depai1ment of Botany provided administrative support. I appreciate the patience of several people who answered my questions about matrix model s, including Wend e ll Cropper, David M c Donald Carmine Lanciani and Hal Caswell I am IV

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also grateful for the s upport I received from staff in the Institute for Economic Botany at the New York Botanical Garden. Andrew Henderson offered expert advice about Iriarte a and scientific inspiration throughout my study. My re sea rch would not have been po ssi ble without the cooperation and friendship of staff at Jatun Sacha, especially David Neill, Michael McColm, and Alejandro Suarez I especially appreciate field assi s tance from volunteers at J atun Sacha and members of the Tapuy family who assisted me with data collection. My interviews with harvesters depended in large part on the generosity of Isabel Lopez, agronomist of the municipality of Puyo, who introduced me and vouched for my study. Several Peace Corps volunteers also provided support and information including Erick Smith, John Clark, and Kristina Cochren. I thank the people of Pritiri s hca, Centro Consuela and 10 de Agosto for their collaboration with my study. I am grateful for the support and interest of the staff of EcoCiencia where I made my home while I was in Quito. I am grateful for the s upport of s ister s and brothers (Peggy Ann Vanderford Sara Nell Lowery Fran ces Loui se Berry, Laura Faye Riggs Robert Earl (Moose) Ander so n and Kenneth Amos Ander so n ) and friends who helped me through difficult days during my research. The Fulbright students who were in Ecuador with me were especially important during my fieldwork; they include Susan Antebi, Katarina Galactos Andy Hanneman Chri s Miller, Laura Powell and Steve Strifler During my entire gradual school career, I depended on the s upport and insight of other s tudents from the City University of New York and New York Botanical Garden and the Department of Botany at University of Florida, incl11ding but not limited to Amy Berkov Flor Chavez Emily V

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Harwell, Amy Litt Claudio Pinero Arthur Rostoker, Seth Bigelow, Ankila Hiremath Debbie Kennard Kelly McPherson Su s an Moegenburg, and Becky Ostertag. I also thank Helen Kraus, Peggy Pack, Miriam Rabban, and the staff of MDRC for the continuing support they provide. Financial s upport for my research wa s provided by the Tropical Conservation and Development Pro g ram of the University of Florida the Col l ege of Liberal Arts and Sciences at University of Florida, the Ft1lbright Commission and the Center for International Fore s try R esearch . VJ

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TABL E O F C ONT E NTS ACKNOWL E D G MENT S C HAPTERS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . l V 1 INTROD UC TION TO S US TAlNABLE HARVESTING ........... .. ... I In.tr o du ctio n .... ....................... .... ...... . .... ....... I M eas t 1 r ing S u stai n a bil ity ...................... ..................... 9 Iri arte a deltoidea i n Ec u ador: Wh y t hi s S pec i es? . . .. .. ....... ..... . 16 Lin k in g t h e Ec o l ogica l an d E co n o mi c M o d e l s .......... ..... .. ....... I 6 2 DEM OG RAPH Y AND THE PO TEN TIAL F OR S U STAINABLE H AR V E S TlN G . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Intr o du c ti o n ....................... .. ................. ........ 20 M e th ods ................................ ........... ........... 36 Re s ul ts a n d Di sc u ss i o n ......................... ...... .. .......... 49 Con c lu s i o n s .................... .. .......... .. .... .. . ........... 8 1 3 THE D EC ISIO N TO HAR VE ST IRI A RT EA IN A CHANGING SOCIAL C O NTE XT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 5 In.tr o du c t io n .. ......................... .. ....... ............. 8 5 R esearc h Q u es ti o n s ...................................... ........ 90 M e th ods ....................................................... 91 R es u l t s an d Di sc u ss i o n ........................................... I 00 Con c lu s i ons: Wh a t a r e t h e Impli ca ti o n s of Th ese Findin gs f or P o t e nti a l E co l og i ca l and Eco n o mi c Su stai nabilit y of Ir ia r tea H ar v es tin g? .... .......... 1 26 4 C ONS E R VA TIO N AN D M ARKETING ............................. 1 30 Intro d u c ti o n .................. .. .............. . ........ .... 1 3 0 M e th ods ............................................ .. ........ 1 38 R es ult s a n d Di sc u ssio n ........... .. ................... ....... .. 141 Conclu s i o n s ........ ....... ........... . ...... . .. ........... 165 V I I

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5 CONCL US IONS ............................... ..... ... ........ 170 Le sso n s for Studie s of Sustainable Harvesting ....................... . 170 Harve s tin g I riartea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173 APPENDIX MATRIX MODELS AND POPULATION DYNAMICS ................. 176 Tran s iti on M a tric es ..................................... .. ....... 177 Matrix M ode ls and Sustainable Har ves ting ......... . ...... ... . ..... 181 LIST OF REFERENCES ................ .......... .................... 185 BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH ............................ ................ 203 Vlll

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Abstract of Dissertation Presented to the Graduate School of the University of Florida in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy DEMOGRAPHY, STEM HARVESTING, AND CONSERVATION OF THE PALM, IRIARTEA DELTOIDEA By Patti Jane Anderson May 1998 Chair: Franci s E Putz Major Department: Botany Iriartea d e ltoidea is a palm growing abundantly from Nicaragua to Bolivia The stem is harvested for construction furniture making, and handicrafts Because the palm is killed when it i s harve s ted the palm 's economic usefulness has led to local over harvesting in some areas. The objective of my study was to determine population parameters for thi s palm and to better understand the potential for sustainable harvesting. I conducted demo g raphic s urvey s, measured growth, mortality and fecundity, and carried out phenological s tt1dies in mature, s econdary, and dissected (defined by steep slopes or streams ) forest s at Jatun Sacha Re se arch Station in Amazonian Ecuador. I focu s ed on identifying the life history stages 1no s t sensitive to change in order to help develop guidelines for s u s tainable harve s ting I identified these stages using sensitivity and elasticity analyse s. Simulation s of harve s ting suggest that harvesting may be sustainable (lambda>= 1 ) when harvesting rates are mode s t or when large numbers of small adults are available to replace harvested individual s in a reasonable rotation time ( < 30 years ) IX

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Harvesting the largest size class (> 20 m tall) has less impact on ft1ture generations than cutting juveniles before reproductive size is reached ( < 10 m tall), a practice followed when pastures are cleared for grazing. Harvesting pressures were found to influence Iriartea demography near settled areas. Ethnographic fieldwork about market patterns and decision making among harvesters revealed the nature of these pressures. The methods used in this study also demonstrate an approach for assessing ecological and economic influences on the sustainability of a particular species or set of species. They allowed me to explore the interlinked nature of ecological approaches and economic factors in assessing sustainability. Management recommendations were based on developing scenarios using local population densities coupled with a range of harvesting rates to estimate the effects of harvesting tall adt1lts and of sparing juveniles and small adults when pastures are cleared, and subsequently abandoned to allow secondruy forest succession. X

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CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION TO SUSTAINABLE HARVESTING Introduction Harvesting non-timber forest products (NTFPs) offers a potential means for utilizing resources while preserving intact forests and therefore, being able to maintain a more nearly intact p l anet for futt1re generations. Yet the biological effects of NTFP harvesting are often not well known before the products are marketed. Without information about the biology of the product-supplying species, over-harvesting is a potential threat. Without knowledge of the context in which resources are used, and of bow that context is changing, our expectations about the needs of future generations may easily miss the mark. This goa l of saving the planet for future generations is embedded in the concept of sustainable development. This goal does not require that natural resources be left untouched ; rather it can be a reminder to remain mindful of the consequences of harvesting and understand the rate of use that can cause a resource to be used up. My primary goal in carrying out the research reported here was to determine the potential for sustainab l e harvesting of Iriartea deltoidea Rui z & Pavon (pambzl or chonta de pambfl in Spanish ) I conducted demographic studies to develop simulations of future harvesting regimes to help determine ecologically sustainable populations of the palm in Ecuador. I carried out ethnographic studies about market patterns and decision making I

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2 among harvesters to learn the potential forces of change influencing the palm's uses and demography. My analyses of these data demonstrate the interlinked nature of the ecological and economic variables used in assessing sustainability and the importance of the social context in which harvesting occurs. I begin this chapter with a discussion of the definitions of economic and ecological sustainability to indicate the different points of departure of the two disciplines, then consider the implications of these definitions for measuring the sustainability of NTFP harvesting. Finally, I will mention the purpose of each of the following chapters. Defming Ecological and Economic Sustainability Sustainability suffers from a wealth of definitions and connotations. The perspectives of ecologists, economists, resource managers, and other interested parties differ, but most acknowledge the Brundtland Commission's statement that sustainable development meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. (World Commission on Environment and Development 1987). This concept is often referred to as "intergenerational equity." Any further refinement of the definition of sustainability may cause ecologists and economists to remind us of the blind men and the elephant. If we ask an ecologist and an economist to decide if harvesting a given NTFP is sustainable, the ecologist might answer the question, "Will this resource be available to future generations if current or projected harvesting levels are maintained or will some irrevocable change to the resource occur?" The economist might answer the question, "Will the yield from this resource continue over the practical lifetime of the project envisioned and allow the next

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3 generation of human s to be no worse off than they would have been without the project ?" The differing view s of the problem ari se from different perspectives and traditions within the discipline s. Intergener a tion a l equi t y is likely to be addressed by ecologists in terrr1 s of shrinking inventory of species or the widening gap in the ozone layer left for future generation s, while economists might be more concerned with the distribution of benefit s, costs and individt1al preferenc es across time These differences can be understood by having an appr ec iation for th e differences in eco nomi c and ecological perspectives o n the value of the future and the meanin g of equ i ty The Value of the Future Perhap s th e mo s t basic difference between econom i s ts and ecologists with regard to s ustainabilit y is their per s pective on th e value of species or resources in the future. For the economi s t evaluating b e nefit s or profit in the future a bird in hand i s worth two in the future The future i s full of un ce rtainty ; the farther economists l ook into the future, the les s certain they ca n be about mon e tary r e turn s from a project or from delayed harve st ing. Possible gains from inve s tment s or from the appreciati n g va lu e of goods purcha se d are lost as long as the profit taking i s deferred. By co mp a ri so n ecologists thinking of the future tend to see the threat of lo ss-lo ss of s pecies or habitat s-as a great danger The future has the same or more value than the pr ese nt ; therefore any lo ss now will be felt by countless generations to come The cost of habitat l oss now is very high for the ecologi s t s be ca u se the future value of each s pecie s or ecosystem i s so great. Cost ben ef it analysis d e mon st rate s how difference s in eco lo gical and economic perspective s about the futur e can be s ignifi ca nt in real life applications. If a plan for

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4 harvesting a NTFP is analyzed the costs of harvesting (such as labor or transportation) are compared with the benefits of harvesting over time. The sum of the benefits over the course of a project is called the net present value (NPV). The equation for NPV includes the discount rate assigned to the project and the number of years assumed to be the life of the project. Future benefits are perceived to be reduced according to a discount rate to account for the lower value of profits in the future. Some ecologists, who presumably believe a future that includes more species is more valuable than the alternative, argue that discount rates are inappropriate in determining the potential for sustainable harvesting of natural resources (e.g., Lande et al. 1994). Assumptions about the value of the future can therefore influence the assessment of a development strategy over time. Equity Both ecologists and economists may ponder whether eqt1ity means leaving behind exactly the same resources for future generations. The ecologist might be inclined to ask ''Is the current generation obligated to leave behind all the resources available for its use?'' The economist on the other hand might phrase the question as ''Is it enough to say the future contains an equal number of options with regard to development?'' In the case of Iriartea deltoid e a (hereafter Iriartea ), the questions might be phrased, "Can a harvesting regime maintain the mean number of individuals per hectare within a region?" vs. "Can the average per capita income from forest (or forests converted to agriculture) within the region be maintained?" The ecologist might suggest that harvesting be allowed at a rate that is no greater than the rate of natural increase with possible augmentation of the rate with restoration projects or forest management to encourage

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5 regeneration of the species in harvested areas. The economist might suggest that substitutes are available for thi s re so urce and if the average per capita income within the region can be maintained, substitutions may be a good thing For example, houses can be constructed of other woods floor s can be made of concrete, roofs can be made of tin; people will sti ll have houses, even if certain forest products are no longer available. The forest might not offer food for the same array of animals, but people may su bstitute cans of tuna for game and still have protein in their diets. Eventually, the issue of potential substitution becomes "What quantity of substitut ion becomes a qualitative change in peoples live s or in an ecosystem?" Perhaps this questions depends less on individual choices to substitute one product for another, but rather a socia l policy decision to endanger or protect a species. Because there are physical limits to restoration of degraded systems and perhaps there are economic limits to technological so lution s for future generations, some combination of both ecological and economic strategies is likely to be necessary. An equally difficult issue for both disciplinary perspectives is whether future generations in every local area should be left with an independent ability to meet their own needs, or if benefit s at the global or regional sca l e should be pursued even if some places are worse off. If the latter strategy is used so me future generation might ask, "Is there an appropriate consolation prize for not receiving an intact ecosystem?" The Likelihood of Sustainability In considering development based on NTFPs, an unspoken assumption is sometimes made that harvesting can be sustainab le because generations of indigenous

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6 people have used a forest product Even if thi s i s true in so me case s, if levels of harvest ing increase ( in re s pon se to in c r easi n g hum a n population s or market in ce ntiv es), mor e precise estimates of s u s tainable harv es ting l eve l s may be needed, including m eas urement s of extraction rate s and the rate of natural population replacement of harvested s pecie s (e.g., Godoy and Bawa 1993 ). The ta sk of determining l evels of har ves tin g that a ll ow a species, as well as the ecosystem from wh i ch it i s ex tr acted, to b e maintained require s under sta ndin g the complex array of interactions among soc ial economic, and ecological var iabl es that influ ence harve s tin g ( Blaikie and Br ookfie ld 198 7; Hick s et al. 1990 ). If n e ither eco lo gy nor economics alone can offer the t ools to d e termine s u st ainability togeth e r the y may b e able to help define contexts in which s u s tainabl e development is more or le ss likely F or example, by including th e va lu e of a resource for future ge nerations ecologists and economist can help avoid the incompatibility of s h ort-run thinking and s ustainable development La ck of knowledge about lon g-te r1n conseque n ces of a decision to harve st forest product s can lead t o socia l traps th at lur e de c i s ion-maker s into see kin g sho rt t er tn benefit s with unkn ow n lon g-te rm costs. Costanza a nd Daly ( 1992 42 ) define a social trap as any s ituation in which the short-run, l ocal reinforcement s guiding individual behavior are incon s i s t e nt w i th the l o n grun global best interest of the indi vidual or s ociety ." Although un ce rtaintie s ma y make assessments of sustai nabilit y difficult, NTFPs may provide s uffi cien t alternatives t o mor e "p redatory land-u s e st rate g ie s" (Browd er 1992 p .38) to make t he effort wo rthwhil e, es p ec i a l ly if project s include ecological

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7 education and rural extension. The challenge is making individual utility correspond more closely with long-term societal interests and avoiding social traps when profits grow large enough to attract powerful elites ( Costanza 1987; Dove 1993a). Pressures to maximize short-term profits may be most likely when the benefits of using a resource flow to entities with no local ties and, therefore, little stake in the future well-being of local inhabitants and their natural capital. Using the economic view of the future, projects with a high discount rate are more likely to encourage short-term exploitation of a resource and potential degradation of the stocks available. Why should we accept any risk of the demise of another species or the degradation of an ecosystem? As Redford and Stearrnan (1993, 252) remind us, "Indigenous people commonly want and have a right to health care, education and material conveniences that improve their quality of life. While traditional knowledge of resource use may provide for these necessities in ways that conservationists find admirable and that perhaps serve as models for other people, the fact is that traditional ways often do not meet growing needs." Those who advocate developing markets for NTFPs are generally not seeking higher profits for groups with many alternative income sources; rather, they are attempting to evaluate the possibilities for people living in a forest to meet their growing needs in ways that leave the forest undamaged and available to meet future needs. If neither ecology nor economics alone can offer the tools to determine sustainability, by integrating different views about the value of a resource for future generations, ecologists and economists can help avoid the incompatibility of short-run

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8 thinking and sustainab l e development. Integrating views about equity, ecologists and economists can produce a broader range of future options and pinpoint where trade -offs may need to be made. Short run thinking may also occur when researchers focus on a static view of a system without including social change as an element of the context for sustainability. If we assume that both ecological and economic systems are subject to change, we must deal with sustainability within a dynamic system. In such a system, sustainability might be viewed as an approach to limiting pressures from outside the local system that overwhelm its existing control mechanisms. Sustainability does not necessarily imply keeping the qualities of a system constant. Biological systems sometimes depend on dramatic change for long-term stability, such as fire-dependent systems that require conflagrations to s timulate regeneration Other systems may have smaller scale disturbances or cycles of change that are essential for system maintenance. Supply and demand in economic systems are often dynamic or cyclical. Dramatic economic changes (boom and bust cycles offer an extreme example) can lead to rapidly changing prices that contribute to social upheaval. Some economic systems might even be catastrophe dependent and sustaining them might demand extreme flexibility. Extremes aside, if intergenerational equity is the goal, lessons from dynamic systems can help u s understand necessary limits on the amplitude of perturbations we introduce to a system through extraction of forest products To better understand the se limits, we can use economic methods to understand current levels of resource use~ ecological method s to understand the rate of replacement based on observations of births

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9 deaths, and growth; and methods from both disciplines to under s tand pressures for change in extraction rates and regeneration potential especially if demand for other product s changes ]and u se patterns on which eco logi ca l processes depend. We can take s u sta inabilit y as a goal or a direction, like the ideal of truth or beauty, a goal toward which we might want to aim, but a goal that remain s a question, nonetheless (Uh l et al. 1996 ). As Redford a nd Sander so n ( 1992 ) caution, we cannot assume that sustainable economic development is compatible with ecological goals of sustainable ecosystems or spec ie s conservation, but this i s a question that can be addressed through research and monitoring ( Holling 1995 ). Measuring Sustainability Following from the discussion of intergenerational equity, three questions are basic for the measurement of the economic and ecological aspects of s u stai nability of a species: ''Where is it?" ; How much is there?"; and How is it likely to change over time ?" A fourth question, ''W hat is the impact of s u stai nable management?'' is nece ssary to understand the broader implication s of s u sta inability as there may be unanticipated consequences of achieving th e target of s u s tainability When we ask the question Where is it?" we need answers that locate the re so urce ecologically in har vestable space as well as economically in "marketab l e" space. We need to know if the plant grows close enough to local people for harve st ing to make se n se as well as if the harvesters are c lo se e nou gh to consumers or market intermediaries for selling to make sense. When we ask, How much is there?" we need to know in biological ter1n s how much is available now and how quickly the spec ie s grows and

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10 reproduces. In economic ter1ns, we need to know how much is needed to make a profit and how will increases in demand affect the future supply. When we ask, "How i s it likely to change?" we need to understand ecologically what are the competing land uses (e.g., pressure s for deforestation ) that could eliminate the resource, and the potential for monitoring change in the sys tem for encouraging refore s tation, or for enforcing restrictions on harve s ting l eve J s with permit s, bag limit s, or perhap s ecotourism taxe s. In economic terrr1s we need to know the pressures for change that include substitutability ( e.g., can another product easily take the place of the NTFP in the market?); new or improved tran sportat ion to market centers; and patterns of population growth, rural urban migration, and urban-rural re se ttlement programs. The fourth question, What is gained or lost if the resource is extracted, even if its population or benefits are sustained?" is difficult to answer and rarely asked. While there are accepted method s for addressing the benefits and costs of development projects the task of lookin g at cos t s to ecosys tem health, to future population s of s pecies that interact with the harvested s pecies, and to soc ial sys tems that may change when new cash re se rve s become available (pe rhaps un e qually ) to its members, remains daunting The question i s posed here to provoke thinking; addressing it was beyond the scope of my research. Stocks and Flows The questions of where, how much and how is the resource changing can be addressed by analyzing s tock s and flows of the resource. The stock of a resource is the quantity available for exploitation. 1 The flow of a resource is the quantity entering or 1 Stock roughly equals natural ca pital as defined by Costanza and Daly ( 1992).

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11 leaving a system and depends both on the time needed for extraction (travel and harvesting time) and the demand for the product. A forest may have thousands of dollars worth of harvestable resources, bt1t if no one harvests or no one is willing to pay for the resource, it remains in the forest stock. Inventories of tropical forests may provide estimates of the net present value of available resources from an area over the course of 50 years (e.g., Peters et al. 1989~ Balick and Mendelsohn 1992), but as Browder (1992) notes, the flow of goods to an actual market from one day's labor may be more meaningful as a measure of potential sustainability. Determining the stocks and flow of a product requires identifying levels of risk and uncertainty from future harvesting. Although in economic analyses these ter1ns are sometimes used interchangeably risk usually can be assigned a probability while for uncertainty the probability is unknown (Turner et al. 1993). When little is known about the biology or ecology of a given species as is the case for many tropical forest species, the probabilities associated with risk are less accurate and the number of variables about which we are uncertain increases. The essential difficulty in determining sustainability of a species is in determining appropriate flow levels, i.e. evaluating the trade-off between using resources now and conserving enough of the stock to insure that benefits may flow to future generations. Several authors have suggested setting a safe minimum standard for the stock of each species to address the element of risk for irreversible change to an ecosystem and the cost of its extraction ( e.g., Tisdell 1988, Toman 1992, and Turner et al. 1993). Although this concept may not define strict quantitative guidelines, it does highlight the necessity of

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12 accounting for uncertainty Societie s could decide on an acceptable level of potential risk of loss and take steps to develop standards and protection against practices with unacceptable levels of ri sk. Even if safe minimum s tandards can be transformed from concepts to actual policies, monitoring will be neces sary to assess their adequacy ( Gunderson et al., 1995 ). The inh e rent ri sk and uncertainty of harvesting forest products suggest that the measurement of stocks and flows and consequent assessment of sustainability needs to be an on-going process. Ecological Tools Resource stocks and flow s have been analyzed using matrix models (e.g., Getz and Haight 1989; Pinard and Put z 1992), as has risk assessment ( Burgman et al. 1993 ). The use of matrix models in population biology has a long hi story ( e.g., Leslie 1945; Lefkovitch 1965 ) with n ew insights provided recently by severa l authors whose work will be discussed in a later chapter (e.g., Caswell 1989; Peter s 1990; Menges 1990 ; McDonald and Caswell 1993; Alvarez Buylla 1994) Peters ( 1994, 1996) ha s also provided an excellent ba s ic explanation of method s for inve s tigating an area and using matrix model s to determine which species found within it might be harvested sustainably as well as guidelines for ecological investigation and management strategies; Hall and Bawa (1993) offer sugges tion s for ecological inventories and monitoring of NTFPs. Stock s and flow s have also been effectively analyzed using ethnographic information experimental designs, and predi ctive models, for example in the work of Joyal ( 1996 ) on a palm, Sabal uresana, found in M ex i co.

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13 To und ersta nd the stocks and flow s of a resource, we need to analyze the effects of harvesting in terrns of changes in the likelihood that the species will replace it se lf Maintaining the cunent s tock of natural capital requires that the flow out of the syste m ( harvesting or d ea th s) i s equal to the flow into the system ( birth s or seedling recruitment and vegetative reproduction in plants); the se flows are understood in large part by studying reproduction and growth variables. Demographic studies of local NTFP population s can therefore help answer the ecological si de of the question s, Where i s it ?" and "How mu c h i s ther e?" With transects, p l o t s, or other inventory method s established across ecological gradients, we may be able to answer more specific que s tions s u c h as: What a re the s pa cial di st ribution pattern s of thi s s pecie s, by life stages under differ e nt eco logical co ndition s? Is the density of th e species high enough to encourage incre ase d har ves ting as in an oligarchic forest ( defined as a forest in which one species is repre se nted by 100 300 individual s per he c tare ; see Peter s 1992 )? Is the den s ity of th e s pecie s greater in recently disturbed fore s ts or in more mature forests? To conduct demographic s tudi es, changes in growth and reprodt1ction and the environment affecti n g those c han ges, mu s t be exa mined Thi s information can be u se d to answer th e qu estio n '' How is th e r eso ur ce likely to change?''. The c urrent s tock ha s a reproductive pot ent ial th a t can be determin ed. Changes in this potential can occur if too many adults are harve ste d to produ ce s ufficient replacements ( which is a danger when the plant is killed by harvesting as with some palm hearts and rattans ) or if not e nough young live to become reproductive adults. Growth rates are important for under st anding how often the resour ce can be harve s ted without damage to reproduction or future growth. For

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example, if leave s of a plant are collected for thatch or fiber, collecting too many leaves from an individu a l can reduce production of new leaves, and perhaps flowering and fruiting. Experiment s to determin e the e f fects of removing leaves tapping latex or digging up root s can help d e t e rmin e if harvesting thes e NTFP s changes the growth o r reproductive potential of the local population. More complex relation s hip s between growth and reproduction and ecosystem changes may also affect the s tock s a nd flow s of a resource. Changes in soil nutrient content, water availability light or in plant pollinators or seed disper s e1s can be important influen ces on the flow s of the resource. Understanding changes in the soil when leaves or fruit s are harve s ted and therefore no longer decompose and return their nutrient s within the forest can b e important, although time constraints often make thi s kind of experimentation unf eas ible One approa c h to understanding so me of the se more complex relationships i s to monitor the harve s ting of re so ur ces that are found potentially sustainable by initial research For example, harv es tin g so m e number of leaves from a plant may not inhibit growth or reprodt1ction indicating initially that harvesting might be sustainable. A consequence of harve s ting the leave s might be a change in the light levels reaching the forest floor or a change in nutrient composition of the soil (Findley et al 1996; Tie sse n 1994 ); thi s change in li g ht or nt1tri e nt s cot11d in turn affect see dling establishment, but only after the harv es tin g r eg ime had been followed for sev eral years. By co ntinuing to monitor demographic p a ttern s, changes in respon se to harvesting can be identified and managed ( Hollin g 1995 ). 14

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15 Economic Tools In studying economic sustainability, we need to be able to answer the questions "Where is it? and How much is there?" in relation to local harvesters, markets and transportation to markets. Information i s needed about who harve s ts, at what rate, under what conditions. Land-u se map s and int erviews with people currently involved in market sales can help an swe r the se question s. Community maps can be used to identify the practical range of harve s ting given current access to transportation and to determine the placement of transects across socia l gradients. Knowing the flow of goods from one person's labor in one day with a given technology (with chain saws, for example) i s also important for calculating flows. In addition to determining the distribution of life stages and rat es of growth and reproduction from ecological studies, we need to know the current demand in term s of local sa le s at the forest gate ( or market sa le s if more di s tant markets exist) to understand pre ss ure s on the possible flow of NTFPs. Economically we need to know if the current yield can continue without changing the growth and reproductive potential of the NTFP. If dema11d is high eno11gh, the potential s upply can be depleted before s ufficient time pas s e s for growth and replacement of the outward flow. If the harve s ting is based on individual decisions in an open access resource system, the likel ihood of sustainable development may be quite different than if a resource is restricted ( Bromley 1989 ). Knowing the norms for decision making and the units for wh i ch deci s ions are made are nece ssary for predicting pressures for over harvesting. Decision -t ree model s ( Gladwin 1989 ) can be used to clarify the norrns and values that limi t the range of individual deci s ions or that require decision making at the

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16 household or co1nmunity ( rath er than individual) level See Bernard 1994 Nichols 1991 o r Godoy et al 1993 for l engthier t1eatments of method s useful for under s tanding individual and hou se hold economic s trategie s. Iriartea deltoid e a in Ecuador: Why this Species? Ir iartea is among the most common palms in Amazonian and coasta l Ecuador (Balslev et al. 1987). The beauty and durability of its stem ha ve made it desirable for many uses including construction, f u rniture, marimbas, banana tree prop s, handicraft s, blowguns and harpoon s ( Kahn and de Granville 1993 ). lriart ea was chose n for st udy both because of its cu rr ent and potentia l economic usefulness and its abundance in lo wland Ecuador. Although abundant now, the palm's usefulness may eventua ll y po se a threat to thi s resource because it is killed when harvested ( Pinard 1993 ). Yet as with other NTFPs increased trade in products made from palm stems may provide a u sef ul economic altern ative to the peop l e of Ecuador, as their population i n creases, if s u stainable h arvesting level s can be dete1mined and utilized. Linking the Ecological and Economic Models This research focuses on one economical l y important species with a wide dist1ibution in the neotropi cs and provides an exam ple of method s for integrating the effect s of social and biological processes factors on t h e sustainabi l ity of the species. In Chapter Two I demonstrate that by s tudying t h e life history and population biology of a species, it is possible to ascertain how harvesting might threaten the future of this ab und ant resource I use the methods of popu l ation eco l ogy and demography to answer the questions "Where is it ?" and How much i s there?" This c hap ter contains estimates

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17 of the effects of increased harvesting with matrix models. In Chapter Three, I use ethnographic methods to address questions of markets and transportation as well as the pressures for change in the lives of the harvesters, artisans, and carpenters who depend on this palm for at least some of their livelihood. Chapter Four includes my analysis of market variables, the potential for expanded markets, and some issues related to establishing certification for sustainable harvesting. Although I was not able to address the issues of ecosystem change because of the limitations of field time and research funds, this work can form the basis of future studies at the level of the ecosystem and national and international market places. The methods used in this study helped to demonstrate for the case of Iriartea that proximity to the resource, access to transportation, and confidence of sales at an acceptable price are key factors influencing harvesting for the market. Harvesting levels for personal use depend more on the need for construction materials as well as proximity to adult Iriartea. If harvesting requires carrying stems out of the forest (not on mule or horseback) for more than one hour, harvesting becomes much less likely. Key decisions of harvesters are based on answers to the questions "Is the price high enough?"; "Is the market reliable enough?"; and "Can the stems be transported?" Conditions that affect the stock of the resource include the forest type and its history of use, the distance to roads that can be used to transport stems, and proximity of the resource to permanent settlements. Changes in land use and transportation reflect changes in national policies that influence regional, local, and household dynamics.

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18 I draw several l essons from this experience. For example, the definition of sustainabi lity used here emphasized maintaining current l evels of the resource and understanding pre s sures affecting its density and distribution. Because the ecological research was conducted for a limited time and within the bounds of a research station current Jevels of growth reproduction and mortality reported here may not represent the full biological potential of the specie s The population levels we find now might represent a major loss of the species if we had comparative information about distribution from a generation or two in the past. Research inevitably involves a deci s ion to choose some point in time as a the beginning of study. I have attempted to include in my analysi s elements of the social context that affect change in uses and markets for lriartea as part of the effort to understand the potential for change beyond the period observed during this research project Using the concept of s to c k s and flows gave me the opportunity to discover that while measuring stock s is not without difficulties it is much easier than measuring flows. Because harvesting and s ales are intermittent activities there was rarely a time when I could observe "the market ( Plattner 1989 ) Inforrnation about harvesting, purchasing stems, or sales of furniture wa s almost always retrospective. My attempt to use an ecological and an economic model to help understand the answers to my three questions allowed me to understand interrelationships I might have missed if I had studied only one aspect of the s u s tainability issue~ on the other hand, my focus was almost entirely local or regional and did not include an analysi s of international monetary policie s nor national economic forces that encouraged colonization, oil exploration, and agriculture for export.

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These issues shape the context in which changing patterns of land use and s ettlement affect the processe s of harvesting and marketing NTFPs as wel] as the ability of plant species to grow and reprodu c e 19

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CHAPTER2 DEMOGRAPHY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINABLE HARVESTING The results from the ecological study of Brosimum alicastrum under score the value of a demographic focus in the analysis of tropical forest resources .... Prior to in c rea s ing forest exp loitation, ecological studies of the species were initiated to assess the potential s u stai nability of annual seed collections. Thi s is a rather unu s ual ordering of priorities. More commonly, ecological analyses are employed only after exploitation has severely reduced the abundance of an important resource, the investigation, in effect, being an a posteriori assessment of what went wrong and what can be done about it (Peters 1991, 270). Introduction If managed properly, non-timber forest products (NTFPs) can contribute toward meeting many of the goals of sustainable development, including ameliorating poverty protecting biodiver s ity and maintaining ecosystem services by reducing the need for cash from other more destructive practices. Investigating ecological and economic implications before encouraging harvesting of NTFP s may serve to avoid the need to study what went wrong, as Peters ( 1991 ) suggests. Still, situations (both ecological and economic) are always s ubject to change; hence research priorities should include not only the a priori question What if? but also on-going monitoring to answer "What now? Examples of project s going wrong are not difficult to find becat1se projects designed to promot e economically and ecologically sustainable extraction may unintentionally exacerbate the conditions they are intended to avoid. Over-harvesting and 20

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21 s ubsequent damage to th e harv es t e d s p ecies, as well as to the forests in which it grows, may occur if demand for th e product in c rea ses dramatically as wa s th e case with r atta n in Indonesia ( Wein stock 1983 ). The op portunity for reducing poverty or providing a sta ble non-de s tructive sou r ce of cash for local people may also be lo s t if outside intere s t s gai n contro l of extract i on ( D ove 1 993a, 1 997; Safran a nd Godoy 1993). For example, the extraction of joj oba ( Simmondi s ia chinensis) co uld have provided s igni ficant incom e for Apache resident s of t h e so uthw es t e rn United Stat es. In s tead investors from o ut s id e that community developed 25,000 h a of jojoba plantations, with littl e b e nefit accruing to the Apache ( Nabhan 1992). Methodological Issues in Assessing NTFP Sustainability In considering eco nomi c development ba se d on NTFP s, an unspoken assumption is so metime s mad e that har vest in g ca n be s u s tain a ble becau se generations of indi ge n o u s people have u se d a forest pr o du c t Even if thi s i s tru e in so me cases, if levels of harvest ing increa se ( in re sp on se t o increa s in g human population pre ss ure or market in ce nti ves), more preci se es tim a t es of s u stai n a bl e harve st in g levels may b e need ed, includin g m ea s urement s of extraction rat es and the harvested s pecie s' rep l ace ment rate s (e.g., Godoy and Bawa 1993 ). The ta s k of determin i ng le vels of har ves ting that a ll ow a species, as well as the eco sys tem from which i t i s extracted to b e maintained require s under st anding the comp l ex array of interactions among soc ial eco nomic a nd eco l ogical variables that influ ence harve s tin g ( Bl ai kie and Bro okfiel d 198 7; Hi cks et a l 1990 ). Th e m e thodologi cal c hall enge i s to col l ec t adequate eco n omic information t o estimate pot e ntial ben ef it s and

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22 costs fairly, while gathering sufficient biological information to develop guidelines for appropriate management of the species. If increased extraction is encouraged, the necessary next step is to set up monitoring procedures that can accurately capture changes to the system if development projects are encouraged. Finally, the successful management of development projects requires the flexibility to incorporate new infor1nation from on-going research (e.g., Gunderson et al. 1995; Walters 1986; Walters and Holling 1990). Techniques for investigating the biological potential of NTFP extraction may vary widely, depending on what is harvested, while economic analyses are often complicated by changing social contexts. Plant-based forest products may be derived from leaves, fruits or seeds, or stems for which the harvested individual is killed (e.g., some palm hearts and rattans). Understanding the full range of the effects of harvesting these different plant parts may require careful manipulative experiments in addition to demographic monitoring studies. Understanding the potential markets for products and the likelihood of fluctuations in those markets may require additional kinds of analysis. For example, fruits may have a short "shelf-life" and little chance for sale in international markets, while more durable seeds, such as tagua nuts (vegetable ivory) may become buttons for the shirts worn far from the forests of origin (Acosta-Solis 1948; Barfod et al. 1990). Moreover, uses of forest products may change over time. Joyal (1996) found that members of the community she studied in Mexico now prefer tin roofs, rather than the traditional thatch made from palm leaves. I also found that people often described uses "from the old days" when forest products were closer at hand and alternatives were less

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23 readily available. The dynamics of use and cultural values, as well as population dynamics, complicate the research effort. Uses of Iri artea and changes in those uses are the s ubj ect of the following chapter. Matrix Models and Population Dynamics The use of matrix mode l s in population biology has a long history (e.g ., Leslie 1945; Lefkovitch 1965) and ha s become a usefu l tool in understanding the life s tage s important for con s ervation of a specie s (e.g ., Crouse et al. 1987; Lande 1988 ; Menge s 1986; van Tienderen 1 995 ) and for monitoring the effects of conservat i on interventions (Maschinski et al. 1997 ; Schemske et al. 1994 ) Matrix models can also help identify the stages of an invasive specie s most likely to be contro llable ( Park er 1997). These models provide a common and we ll -understood approach to assessing the demographic characteristics of a population ( Getz and Hai ght 1989), as well as the risk associated with population change ( Burgman e t al 1993 ), and a technique for better understanding population structure and dynamics . U nd erstanding the popt1lation s tructure and dynamics of a species is es s ential for developing management plan s ( e g., Peter s 1994; Pinard and Putz 1992). For example, projections using matrix models can for -n the basi s for estimating the number and size of individuals that may be harvested without endangering the continued exi s tence of a population ( e g. Bo s ch 1971; Hall and Bawa 1 993; Horvitz and Schemske 1995 ; Pefia Claros 1996; Peters 1990 1991 ; Pinard 1993 ) Matrix models provide an indication of replacement rate s for managed NTFP popu l ation s through the value of lambda ( A) Changes in the value of A reflect potential changes in the popu l at i on replacement rate

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because ")i. integrates the effect of the environment on the vital rate s into a single stat i stic" (Caswell 1988, 178). 24 In addition to providing an analysis of population change based on A values, matrix models can be useful in studies of sustainable harvesting by revealing the stages of a species that are most sensitive to change in population st1ucture. Knowing the stage most sensitive to c hange can h elp in developing guidelines for sustainable harvesting because mode s t changes in thi s stage can cause large changes in the projection of future population s ize. Moreover by u s ing s ensitivity and e l asticity meast1re s described by Caswell (1989) and other s (e.g. Maschinski et al. 1997; McDonald and Caswell 1993 ), we may identify these stages and focu s future research effort on strengthening the quality of measures used to understand growth and regeneration within them as a part of a management plan for harvesting (Alvarez-Buyl la 1994; McDonald and Caswell 1993 ; Menges 1990). Why This Species? Iriartea d e ltoidea Rufz & Pavon ( hereafter Iriartea) is a monotypic genus (Henderson 1 990 ) that i s among tl1e most common palms in Amazonian and coastal Ecuador (Balslev et al 1987) as well as in other areas of Latin America, including Peru (e.g ., Losos, 1995 ), Costa Rica ( e. g. Clark et al. 1995) and Bolivia (Dewalt et al 1997 ). Its current use s include con s truction furniture, marimbas, banana props, handicrafts blowguns, and harpoon s (Kahn and de Granville 1993). Studying Iriartea (known as pamb{l or chont a d e pamb{l in Ecuador ) i s important both becau s e of its current and potential economjc usefu ln es s (e g., P e der s en and Bal s l ev 1990 ; Phillips et al. 1994) and

PAGE 35

25 its abundance in lowland Ecuador. Although abundant now, the palm's usefulness may eventually pose a threat to thi s re s ource because it is killed when harvested (Pinard 1993 ). As early as 1970 large individual s of thi s s pecies were extirpated near Iquitos Peru because of over harvesting ( Jordan 1970 ) Yet as with other NTFP s, increased trade in products made from palm stem s may provide a useful economic alternative to people of Ecuador, as their population in c rea s e s, if sustainable harvesting level s can be determined and utilized before the need arises to study "what went wrong Why Yet A n other St u dy? Policy-makers who are considering the benefits and costs of encouraging NTFP extraction must under s tand the languages of both economics and ecology to evaluate alternatives for de v elopment without neglecting the consequences for eco s ystem s If uncertainties with regard to the s e alternative s circumscribe a development choice then the advice of Tisdell ( 1988) may be u s eful: delay Delay for research that may clarify biological processe s, ecological relationships and economic benefits or costs and thereby reduce the need for studie s of damage done after the fact. If research i s to be useful for resource managers and policy-makers, it must be designed to answer management que s tion s Inventories that reveal the number of species per hectare might b e intere s ting and important but may not provide sufficient information Mana g ing an area s imply to m a intain or increase the number of species there may miss the mark. Although increa s ing numbers of species, or higher biodiversity may be found in s ome area s following swidden agriculture (e.g., Balee 1994), we do not know if some rare specie s are lost and replaced by more common ones based on

PAGE 36

26 comparisons of the number of s pecies. As Ehrenfeld ( 1991 ) reminds us in his discussion of managing deer and box turtles, one species may pay the ecological costs of management for another s pecie s benefit In addition research a s an integral part of monitoring development projects may allow early warnings about potential threats to economic or ecological s ustainability as these systems evolve ( Holling 1995). With NTFPs, the potential for local extirpation of a resource when new markets deve l op or when prices rise requires us to continue population monitoring to be sure fore s ts are not emptied of the target species or other species with relationships to the one s being marketed (Redford 1992). Co unt ry S e ttin g Construction of road s and the trans-Ecuadorian oil pipeline turned eastern Ec uador into one of the mo s t inten s e target s of colonization in the Amazon basin and stimulated one of the highe s t r a te s of deforestation in the world (Peck 1990 ) The effect s of national policie s related to tran s portation and economic development, intended to encourage exports also encourage the replacement of forests with cattle pastures and banana, coffee, cacao, and oil-palm plantations. Logging companies have built roads that provide entry points for additional s ettler s into forested areas and thereby increase deforestation pre ss ure s from coloni z ation ( Rudel 1993; Pearce 1994 ) The highways opened the Amazoni a n fore s t s to c oloni s t s, land speculator s, and agribusines s interest s (Southgate et al 1991 ). New roads, new s ettlement by colonists, and deforestation have grown hand in hand in Amazonian Ecuador ( Peck 1990 ). Although the intact fore s t might have great

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27 value, establishing and 1n a intainin g land tenure require s l a nd clearing; therefore most farrr1ers disregard the value of forests in order to hold on to land. The perception of a limitless frontier ca n also e ncot1ra ge more extensive agricultural clearing to in c rea se crop production especially when m o re land than ca pital i s available ( Pichon 1996a ). Although pre ss ur es are s trong for c hange in land u se from forest to agriculture within Amazonian Ecuador, the form agricultural l a nd use take s i s not nece ssar ily predetermined Colonists and indigenous far rn ers in vest in a s trikingly varied portfolio of agricultural l a nd use pra ct i ces. P olyc ulture s of annual s a nd perennial s s uch as mai ze or rice with cacao, coffee, and cit ru s or ot h er f ruit trees (a nd increa s ingly flower s and tropical ornamentals for expo rt ) are commo n (Eco nomi s t 1997 ; Pi c hon 1996a 1996b ; pers obs.). Mix ed sys tem s not only se rv e a s in s urance against crop failures, but also help to maintain agroecosystern functions by incorporating the benefit s of s uccession, redu ci n g risks from pe sts, an d in c luding d ee p rooted plants that allow uptake of nutrient s from subsoils (E wel 1 986). NTFP s ca n b e an i1nportant e lement in th e portfolio of cash producing strategies for farmers and so me like Iriart ea, can also fit within th e polycultural sys tem s that man y Amazonian Ecuadorians already employ. Research Site I conducted my eco l ogica l research in lowl a nd Ecuador at Jatun Sacha Biolo g ical Research Station ( h e reafter Jatun Sacha) a nd the s urrounding community in Napo Province of Am azo nian Ecuador. Jatun Sacha i s located on the Rio Napo ( 01 04 S; 77 36' W ) at an eleva tion of about 450 m and i s c la ss i f ied as a tropical wet forest

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28 (Holdridge 1967 ), with annual rainfall of 3500-4000 mm and mean annual temperature of 23 C. The station is actively expanding through acquisitions of nearby farms In 1995 when my study began it cove r ed an area of 1200 ha; 70 % of this area was primary fore s t with secondary fore s t making up the re s t. Much of the secondary forest was under cultivation in coff e e and ca c ao a ppr o ximately 30 year s ago. Recent acquisitions by Jatun Sacha include are as that were pa s ture s or agricultural cropland until the time of purchase. Hunting and selective logging have occurred in the past over much of the reserve area. The surrounding c ommunity con s ist s of coloni s ts and lowland Quichua people who own small farms (about 50 ha per family ), most of which include pastures that have been cleared for cattle grazing. Three perrr1anent plot s of 1 h a have been established and inventoried at Jatun Sacha; in these plot s, Iriart ea wa s among th e ten most frequently encountered tree species with ctiam e ter at breast hei g ht ( dbh ; 1 3 m above ground level ) greater than I 0 cm In the upland s ite, 107 individuals of this s pecies were found; in a s tream valley plot 44 ; and in the alluvial plain plot 1 3 ( Neill e t al. 1993 ) Soil types found at the Jatun Sacha include typic dystropept in the upland plot fluventic dystropept in the stream valley, and typic tropofluvent in the floodplain (Neill et al. 1993). Additional re s earch among harvester s and carpenters was conducted in Pastaza Province in or near the provin c ial ca pital of Puyo Puyo is located on th e Rio Pastaza (01 30' S ; 78 05 W ) at an e levation of about 900 m Forested area s near Puyo are classified as a tropical wet fore s t ( Holdridge 1967 ) with annual rainfall of 4000 mm and mean annual temp e rature of 22 C

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29 Biological Characteristics of Iriartea deltoidea This specie s wa s chosen for s tudy both because of its current and potential economic usefulness and it s abundance in lowland Ecuador. The palm is found from Nicaragua to Bolivia ( but only in the we s tern Amazon basin of South America ) at elevations from sea level to 1300 m ( Henderson 1990 ) It is abundant both along ridges (Parker and Carr 1992 ) and near streams (Balslev et al. 1987 ). Numerous stilt roots form a cone up to 2 m tall at the base of the palm 's s tem and presumably provide secure anchoring in the un s tabl e so il s found where the palm is abundantboth on s teep slopes and along s tream s. Stems of reproductively mature individuals are 10 30 m tall solitary, and unbranched The hardne ss of the outer s tem is re s ponsible in large part for the economic usefulness of the palm; for example, in her s tudy of Jriart ea in Acre Brazil, Pinard (1993) reported that floo1ing made from the palm lasted up to 25 years. The fibers of the outer stem are often densely lignified while the center is quite soft, and the modulu s of elasticity increa ses with fiber ce ll wall thicknes s to a maximum of 3.5 X 10 10 N / m 2 ( Rich 1987 ) The outer portions of the s tem s are s plit into planks for u se in construction while the soft, inner co re is general l y dis ca rded. Tannin s darken the lignified outer f iber s, adding to the beauty of th e wood and increa s ing it s value for handicrafts and furniture. In addition to tannin s in the s tem seco ndary compounds in the leaves include sa ponin s, cardiac glycoside s, and triterpenoids 2 while the roots contain tannins and triterpenoids ( V. 2 Triterpenoids are "phytosteroids" i .e. they have the same basic structt1re as steroids that act as horrnone s in animals. Th ey are lip op hili c in that they can be found associated with other fatty substances in plant ti ss ue ( A Hanneman pers. comm.; Robinson 1991).

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30 H. Villacres, Universidad Central de Quito, pers. comm.). The palm is also valued as a fish poison and aphrodisiac (Duke and Vasques 1994); root extracts are lethal to fish ( LD 50) at a concentration of 5 g/kg for 3 hour s (V. H. Villacres, pers. comm.). The leaf morphology of lriart ea varies from seedlings to juvenile to adult. Seedling eophylls are entire, juvenile leaves are pinnately compound in a single plane, and adult leaves are divided into leaflet s arranged in several planes, called "multilayer" leaves by Rich et al. ( 1995 ). Adult individuals are easily identified in the field by their characteristic plumose leaves ( Fjgure 2-1 ), usually numbering from four to seven (Henderson et al. 1995). Immature inflorescences of Iriartea are covered by bracts with a characteristic horn shape that al so facilitates identification of adults. Flowers are usually borne in triads with two male flow ers on either side of the central female flower; staminate anthe s i s precedes pi st illate anthesis ( Hender s on 1990). First reproduction occ11rs when Iriartea are approximately IO m tall and the crown is composed of leaves with adult, multilayer morphology. In a study that included Iriartea at La Selva, Costa Rica adult multilayer leaves were found on only 40 % of individuals from 10-15 m tall, except near canopy gaps were light levels were high ( Rich et al. 1995 ). It i s possible that light levels are higher throughout Jatun Sacha than in La Selva. Occasionally I observed individuals 10 m tall with no evidence of reproduction, but I found no evidence of reproduction among individuals s horter than 10 m. I found inflorescences with only staminate flowers, unlike the expected bi-sexual structure composed of triads of male and female flowers (F igure 2-2) for 8 individuals within my study plots. The se male inflorescences grew on individuals 10 12 m tall found in low

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31 Figure 2-1. Phot ogra ph of the crow n and fruits of an adult lriart ea.

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32 Figure 2-2. Bisexual (top ) and male only (bottom) inflorescences of Iriartea

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33 light conditions. Given the low frequency of individuals with only male flowers, I disregarded this possibility when calculating fecundity for the matrix models. I also observed several individuals in fruit with a remnant of a male inflorescence still attached to the stem from an earlier flowering event, suggesting a sex change with increasing light availability as the individual grew taller. Aspects of the growth and life history of this species has been studied in Costa Rica (Rich 1985), Brazil (Pinard 1993), and Ecuador (Svenning and Balslev 1997). In her study using matrix models to investigate the sustainability of harvesting practices in Brazil, Pinard suggested that Iriartea could be harvested sustainably if only individuals in the most mature life stage of the palm were felled. In my study of the life history and population biology of this palm, I use matrix models to determine if current harvesting levels threaten the future of this abundant resource in Amazonian Ecuador. The research also focuses on biological factors in the palm's life history that limit regeneration and potentially provides inf or1nation useful for management. Research Questions This chapter focuses on stocks and flows of Iriartea by attempting to answer the following questions: "Where is it?" "How much is there?" and "How is it likely to change over time?" Simulations of several possible harvesting intensities may help answer these questions by exploring the biological potential for sustainable harvesting given current growth, reproduction, and mortality rates. Testing silvicultural treatments that enhance growth rates and reproduction or reduce mortality rates can also be useful. To develop the simulations, I carried out studies of population dynamics (growth,

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34 reproduction, and mortality) and population structure (density of size classes or stages) of Iriartea populations under several conditions. Where is it? To determine the principal range of habitat types in which lriartea grows, I collected demographic data from five plot s (20 x 50 m) in each of three forest types. The forest types included secondary forest areas that were crop land 30 years prior to my study, areas that I refer to as mature forests, and mature forests with steep s lopes or streams that created a more open canopy. I call this latter forest type di ssec ted indicating the area i s c ut by irregular ridges valleys, and stream beds In addition to studying forest populations I collected information from areas currently in agricultura] use where Iriart ea had been left standing. Because there were no individuals <12 m tall and because no seedlings s urvived in the agricultural areas (although adults produced fruits and some see d s germinated near adults), I could not carry out meaningful matrix analysis on the se plots. I u sed my observations in these pastures to understand the l ack of regeneration How much is there? I counted individuals within the plots described above, then converted the census to a per hectare basi s The demographic data collected include height, diameter reproductive status, and leaf shape. The individuals were assigned to size classes based on height for the matrix analysis. (See the Appendix for more details about matrix models.) I u se d matrix analysis to deter1r1ine the finite rate of population increase ( lambda or A) with data from these 15 plots ( 5 per forest type ). A population can be expected to grow if A> 1.0, decline if A
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35 addition to counting individuals within plots, I studied variables important for population dynamics, including adult reproduction, seed germination, growth and mortality rates. H o w i s t he p o pul at i o n li ke l y to ch a n ge over t im e? Change in the availability of Iriartea may be addressed by asking "How can demographic studies infor111 management decisions within the context of changing land use and forest conversion?" Changes in land use, especially conversion of forests to agricultural use as crop land or pastures as well as abandonment of those pastures, may have more impact on the survival of Iriartea populations than changes in harvesting practices. The effects of land use change on the palm have been observed by other authors who note that this species is often left behind in pastures, but does not regenerate in them (e.g., Pedersen 1994). The process of converting forest to pasture then to fallows, especially the number of Iriartea spared in this process, can be a critical factor in potentially sustainable management of the species as an NTFP if secondary forests return after pastures are abandoned. I used matrix models to simulate harvesting and return times from mature, secondary, and dissected forests. I also investigated the effects of pasture conversion on Iriartea by observations of pastures, experiments with seeds and seedlings in pastures, and simulations of pasture clearing. Investigating traditional management practices with regard to this palm may also help to understand its role in the agriculturaJ diversification that Alcorn (1990) considers the "self-insurance" of farmers. Diversification works as insurance in that if one crop fails or the price of one crop is lower than expected, other crops can help reduce financial losses. Another way of thinking about diversification is that the approach is a hedging

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36 technique analo go u s to investing in a mutual fund for s preading the ri s k among th e natural resource asse t s in an agricultural and forestry-based portfolio Leaving thi s palm standing when a pas ture i s cleare d m ea n s a r eso urce is save d for future u se in construction or for sale when cas h is n ee ded to offset crop failures. Joyal (1996) ref e r s to thi s management practice as "s paring. lri artea i s also some times left when pa stures and agricultural plots are c l eared because of potential future cash value, becau se they provide limited s hade without taking up much space, a nd becau se sparing them spares the fanner the hard work of c uttin g the stem of this palm Be ca u se some animals are als o attracted to it s fruit, farn1ers who a1e also hunter s may s pare th e palm. Iriart ea also fits within the system of agriculture by requirin g an inv es tment of labor only when cash is n ee ded This N'I'FP grows without cultivation while farmers are bu sy with crops but is available w hen they hav e time much lik e farn1ers w h o t ap rubber in seaso nally in a process of intermittent exploitat i on" (Dove 199 3b) or workers who seaso nally s hift from harv est ing chicle ( M a nil kara za pota ) to al l s pice ( Pim enta dioica) to xate ( Chamdorea s pp .) in Guatemala (Nations 199 2). Methods The objective of my s tud y was first to ex plore the s tability of lri a rtea population s, based on the value of A calculated using matrix model s (A = 1 s ugge s ts a s table population ). I then sim ulated the co n se qu e n ces of three type s of harve s ting in three different forest types fo und at J atun Sacha. The first t ype of harv es tin g was based on th e effects of s u stai n ed harvesting at in c r eas in g intensities by systematically reducin g the survival probabil ities for adult s tages w i th individual s > 15 m tall In th e second typ e of

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37 harvesting simulation, I reduced the number of adults > 15 m tall from the observed frequencies to O ( zero) to simulate a one-time total harvest in each forest type In the fmal harvesting simulation, I estimated the effects of one-time pasture clearing, in which individuals < 15 m were cut those> 15 m were spared, and growing conditions changed over time I also attempted to provide u s efu l management information by conducting experiments on lriartea regeneration in pa s tures and by examining the effects of crown exposure to light to estimate the potential effects of crown liberation treatments on growth and regeneration. To understand the range of growth rates without management interventions, I calculated cumulative ages and size class durations based on fast, mean, and slow growth rate s for pooled data from the three forest types. These data were used to indicated the range of growth rate s and ages possible for lri artea in this region. Transition Matrices My analyses of lriart e a population dynamics were based on transition matrices in which P i is the probability of surviving and remaining in a size class; G i the probability of surviving and growing into the next class ~ and F i the fecundity rate, the potential reproductive contribution of an individual and includes (for plants) both seed production and survival probabilities of germinants. These transitions may be depicted graphically in life history diagrams ( Figure 2-3 ) To calculate transition matrices needed to evaluate population stability and to carry out s i1nulations, I calculated parameters for population dynamics (fecundity, growth, and morta li ty) from a variety of sources (Table 2-1) and deterrnined population s tructure ba s ed on five 0.1 ha plots in each of three forest types

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38 f 0 1 3 4 Po Ps Figure 2-3. Example of a l ife cyc l e diagram. Circles ( node s) r epresent size c l asses or s ta ges while arcs su rvi va l Pi, growth to a new stage, gj, or fecundity fi. For thi s study of Iriart ea, s iz e c l asses were defined as follow s: 0 = seed lin gs, 1 = 0.2 0.5m 2 = 0 .5 05 m 3 = 5 10 m, 4 = 10 15 m 5 = 15 20 m and 6 = >20m.

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39 Table 2-1. Resear c h objectives, methods and so urce s of data for each element of th e demographic s tudy. Objective Method Sample Source Sample Size De scribe Cens u s of size c la sses 3 forest types 5 plots per forest population ( by height ) within JS ( J atu n type structure Sacha ) Describe population dynamic s Fecundit y Cot1nt infru ctesce nce s 3 forest types i n 5 plot s per forest type JS Germination s tudy Nur se ry in JS 150 see ds Literature search Lose s ( 1995 ) and Jordan ( 1973 ) in Peru Seedling s urvival Nur se ry in JS 600 germi n ated see ds Growth Annual l eaf Combined fores ts, 1995: 50 < 10 m tall produ c tion by size c la ss & & 10 > 20 m tall ; crown exposure 1 996: 30 < 10m & 10 > I Om Int e rn ode Combined forests 50 < 1 0 m m easu r ement in JS Napo and Pastaza 20 > 10 m Province s Mortality seed ling s urvi val Combined forests 1994 : 66 see dlin gs 1995: 88 see dlin gs 0.2 10 m Combined fores ts 1 995: 50 (2 yr data) in JS 1996: 30 ( 1 yr data ) > 10m Combined fores t s 1995: 10 (2 y r data ) in JS ; 1996: 10 ( 1 yr data ) 1 ha plots ; inventory after 5 years Literature sea rch Pinard ( 1993 )

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40 Table 2-1--continued Objective Method Samp]e Source Sample Size Acquire management infor1nation Forest type Measurements of 3 forest types in 5 plots per f crest type differences canopy heights, JS slopes, exposure classes, size classes, reproduction Potential for Comparisons of ANOV A by size Cambi ned fores ts liberation growth and c]ass and treatment s reproduction by exposure category crown exposure Potential for Seed gerrnination and ANOV A tests of 3 pastures with 5 pasture seedling surviva] for weeding and replicates of 10 seeds restoration 4 months shading and 5 seedlings within Jatun Sacha. I calculated fecundity ( F i) as the product of the mean number of infructescence s for eac h a dult size class in each forest type, the mean number of fruit per infructescence, and th e germination and see dling survival rate observed in nursery experiments (ge rrnination for six month s and s urvival for six months to give an annual rate). Annual growth (Gi) and survival ( Pi) were based on annual leaf production for each size and crown exposure class multiplied by the mean i ntern ode length per meter of s tem height. Growth rates for each s ize class within each of the three forest types were based on the weighted mean s of annual leaf production for each exposure category. The weighted mean s were in tum based on the mean fractions of each size class and crown

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41 exposure combination found in the five plots in each forest type (Table 2-2 and Table 23). Mortality (1-( G i + P i)) was calculated se parately for seedlings, juvenile s, and adults. For seedlings I based mortality on the deaths of seedlings tagged in forest plots in 1994 and 1995 For juvenile s 0.2 10 m, I calculated mortality based on deaths among individuals in the annual growth sa mple. For adults, I combined data from my annual growth sample and a five year inventory of permanent plots within Jatun Sacha to detertnine an annual mo11ality rate for individual s > 10 m tall. Because mortality is low among adults, combining information sources was necessary to arrive at a more accurate estimate of the annual rat e. Population s tn1cture ( the den s ity of individuals within each of the size classes) was observed in 5 plots in each of 3 forest type s. Within these plots, I recorded height diameter, leaf fo11n, crown exposure ( for juveniles and adults), and reproductive output (the number of inflorescence s, infructescences and immature flower buds) for adults. To determine the extent to which the three forest types were different, I compared them on the basis of canopy height, slope, population structure of Iriartea, and reproduction among adults. Becau se these comparisons among the three forest types were carried out within a single re sea rch stat ion and were conducted within a single year, I set alpha= 0.10 to deter ,nine statistical significance. Ideally an analysis of the life history of an organism would be based on following a cohort of individual s through their entire life cycle, but this ideal is much more practical

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42 Table 2-2. Annual leaf production for each expos ur e category wit hin each size class and the percent of each combination observed within 5 plots in each of 3 forest types. Crown t d di dl' exposure was no recor e or see 1ng s. Size Class Exposure leaves/ ear % mature % seco ndar' % di ssected 0 ( seed l ing) 3 0.700 4 0.688 5 1: 0.438 1 ( 0.2-0.5 m ) 2 1.300 2 5 % 16.1 % 45.5% 3 0.929 53.6 % 36.4% 4 0.750 75% 28.6% 18.2 % 5 1.000 01.8 % = 2 ( 0 .5 5 m) 2 1.000 25.0% 07.1% 3 1.016 40% 56.3 % 50 % 4 1 .334 40% 06.3o/o 42.9% 5 1.251 20% 12.5 o/o 3(5-lOm) 2 1.584 50 % 12.5 % 3 1.501 57.1 % 50 % 41.7% 4 2.001 42.9% 45.8% 4 ( 1 0 15 m) l 3.063 14.3 % 08.7% 2 2.750 14.3 % 66.7% 21.7o/o 3 3.000 71.4% 33.3% 47.8% 4 3.000 21.7% 5 (15 20 m) 1 2.750 33.3% 71.4% 25o/o 2 2.500 46.7o/o 28.6% 35% 3 2.750 20.0% 40% 6 (> 20 m ) 1 2.667 55.6% 50% 58.3% 2 2.750 33.3o/o 50% 41.7% 1 ? 6 8 11 1 g 0

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43 Table 2-3. Annual l eaf production rate u se d in ca l c ulation s of tran s iti o n probabiliti es for each forest typ e based on the weighted m ea n of leaf production by siz e class a nd exposure category For s i ze c la sses 1-3, N i s ba se d o n co unt s within I Ox50 m subplots; for size clas s es 4 -6, N is b ased o n 20x50 m plots ( n o t th e per hectar e mean s u se d elsewhere ) Size Ov era ll Matur e Forest Se co ndary Di ssected Class Mean mean (N) Fore s t Forest l eaves/year mean (N) mean (N) 0 0 .615 0.615 0 .6 15 0.615 1 0 .966 0.888 (4) 0.940 ( 56) 1 070 ( 11 ) 2 1 .099 1 1 90 (5) 1 062 ( 16 ) 1 151 ( 14 ) 3 1 .583 1.786 (7) 1 .786 (2) 1 .72 0 (24) 4 3.000 2.973 ( 7) 2.833 (3) 2 948 (23) 5 2.750 2.633 (30) 2.679 (7) 2.663 (20) l:g 2 .688 2 r., ~ 7 '1 I / '.7 708 r2 7 i L ( 1 ?,) for individual r esearc h e r s in stud i es of s hort-li ve d animal s, annual plants, or bacteria than with long-lived organisms. In man y s pecie s, r eac hing the appropriate size to reproduce is more imp o rt ant than l i v in g a particular numb er of years (Caswe ll 1989 ). Furtherrnore, perenni a l plant s suc h as tr ees are ofte n bett e r c hara c terized by size ( or s tage ) t han b y age for both r e pr o du ctive and s ur vival parameters (e.g., Burgman et a l 1993 ). Although my a nal ysis of I riartea population s i s based on s t ages, (e.g. seed lin g, juvenile adu lt ) a nd s i ze c l asses r athe r than ages so me indication of the time period s involved in the growt h of th e palm can b e u se ful in under s tanding and evaluating projection s of population c han ge as well as recovery tim e after harve s ting. While there are no annual growth rings from which to calculate the age of palms age estimates can be based on annual l eaf production rates and the number of leaf scars remaining on the s tem

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44 of th e palm (Comer 1 966; Sarukhan 1978). The d u rat i on of stages used in a matrix a n alysis can then be calcu l ated from scar counts and annual l eaf production rates. To simplify the discussion of size classes, I refer to individ u als 0.2 10 m tall as j u veni l es a n d those over I O m tall as ad u lts when these categories aie biologically mea ni ngful (Table 2-4). For examp l e, first reproduction occ u rs after the palm reaches 10 m; t h erefore I refer to adults rather than size classes 4 6, in discussions of reproduction. Table 2-4. Life stages size classes leaf forms, and age at t h e time of exit f r om the size class for each height category of Iriartea. First reproduction ge n eral l y occurs when individuals reach the height of IO m. Stage Size Cla ss Stem He i ght Leaf For1n Estimated Age (in years) seedling 0 0 0.2 m eophyll 34 j u veni l e l 0.2 0 5 m compound 41 2 0.5 5 m 63 3 5 1 0 m 74 ad u lt 4 10 15 m mu l ti l aye r 80 5 15 20 m 92 6 >20m 142 Are For es t Ty p es Dif fe r e nt ? Given that lriartea is both abundant and widely distributed both geographically and ecologically in the neotropics understanding its potential as a sustainab l e NTFP across a range of habitat types seems i mportant. In this study, I selected five plots in each of three forest types: mature forest, secondary forest, and dissected, mature forest with st r eams or steep ridges (Alder and Synnott 1992; Bemer 1 992). As a means of quantifying

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45 difference s among these forest types I measured canopy heights on a 5x5 m grid within each plot (at 55 points per plot) following the techniques described by Welden et al. (1991) After measuring the highest living vegetation above each corner point with a range finder, I also assigned a canopy height, taken from the closest point, to adults and juveniles within the plot s to determine under what canopy heights Iriartea are likely to grow. I measured s lope at s ix points a l ong the midline of each 20x50 m plot to quantify differences in topography of the three forest types Population Structure Do Size Class Frequency Distributions Differ by Forest Type? To deterrnine the number of individuals in each s ize class, I established 5 nested plots in each of 3 forest types of 50x20 m for adult lriartea 50xl0 m for juveniles, and 10x2 m for seed lin gs. To avoid establishing plots in areas w ith out Iriartea I located plots where I found at least one adult lri artea I s elected only indi victuals growing 300-3000 m away from buildings and at least 10 m away from trails. The s e individuals marked the beginning of the midline of each plot. I oriented plots by selecting a random compass direction pointing away from the trail. I measured palm heights using a telescoping pole up to 7.5 m and a range finder for taller individuals. Using calipers, I measured stem diameter above the root cone or, for small individual s without a root cone, at ground level. I a lso described the light conditions of each individual using modified Dawkins crown exposure categories: 1 =emergent 2=full overhead light 3=some overhead light, 4=some side light and 5=no direct li ght (A ld er and Synnott 1992 )

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46 Population Dynamics Annual growth. I marked the youngest leaf of a total of 50 understory palm s (<10 m tall) near trails, then counted the number of new leaves one year later; I monitored new leaf production for a second year for 70 individual s < 10 m tall To deter1nine mean leaf production rate s for ad ult s, I identified IO palms > 10 m tall with crowns that were easily visible and recorded th e emergence of new leav es monthly for two years. I added 10 more individuals > 10 min the seco nd year of my study and recorded new leaves for one year. I described light conditions for these palms using the modified Dawkins crown exposure categories describ ed above I mea s ured intemode lengths of 5 individuals for each observed size and crown exposure category (e.g., there were no emergent seedlings; no adults > 20 m without direct light ) Individual s < 10 m tall were also sample members in my study of annual growth, described above; taller indi v idual s were destructively harvested. Because harve sting is not allowed within the research station, and too few adults died during my research to allow for opportunistic measurements there intemode lengths for individuals > 10 m were measured outside the boundaries of Jatun Sacha in Napo Province or in nearby Pastaza Province The se individuals were se lected with harvesters who later sold or used the stems. Because the two provinces are adjacent, and there is a gradual gradient of elevation, rain fa ll and temperature between them, I assume that intemode lengths are similar for lriart ea in the two provinces. Fecundity I determined reproductive patterns for each size class from monthly phenological observations of flowering and fruiting for one year. The phenological

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sample was selected from palms visible from trails within Jatun Sacha and distributed among size classes and crown exposure categories (Table 2-5). The total phenological samp l e consisted of 69 individuals. Table 2-5. Distribution of individuals in the phenological study by size class and crown exposure category Crown Categor 1 10 15 m 15 20 m 20+m total emer~ent 3 3 9 15 fu l l overhead light 7 11 3 21 some overhead light 10 10 0 20 some side I i ;ht 10 3 0 13 total 30 27 12 69 47 I collected 150 seeds and planted then in the Jatun Sacha nursery to determine the time needed for ger1nination. The seeds were p l aced in trays and partly covered with forest soil, watered with rainfall, and s h aded by citrus trees. I monitored the seeds for 6 months until germination reached an asymptote. In July 1995, I collected 600 seeds that had started to gerrninate from beneath palms at Jatun Sacha. No more than 50 seeds were collected near any one adult. The seeds were planted in 1 liter plastic bags using soil collected from the forest floor and were placed in the shade of citrus trees and he l iconias in the station nursery. Frequent rains precluded the need for watering. After 6 months, I counted the number of seedlings that survived M ortalit y. For individuals< 10 m tall, mortality rates are based on deaths observed during the study of annual growth described above. For individua l s> 10 m tall,

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48 additional mort a li ty inform a ti o n was available from the 5 year re inventorie s of a 1 ha perrnanent plot at J atun S ac h a. From th e c ombined data, I calculated annual mort a lit y rate s to use in calcu latin g su r v i va l pr oba biliti es in the matrix model s. For an estimate of seed lin g m o rtality I tagged 66 seedlings in 1994 and 88 seedlings in 1995. Th ese see dlin gs were lo c ated in preliminary plots that were u se d to develop the resear c h de sign for the c urrent study. Because the s ize or s hape of the se plot s did not conform to the final re sea r c h design other data from them were not included in this study. Management Information about Regeneration in Pastures In abandoned pastures s till dominated by pasture grasses, primarily mola ss es grass ( Melinis minuti flora), where fn1iting adult Iri a rt ea were pre se nt I se t tip experiments to estimate see d and see dlin g s urvival with s hading and weeding treatment s. Survival after four month s was observed as the measure of s urvival for see ds and transplanted se edling s. The factors I considered in the exper iment were light and the effects of pa s ture gra sses. Treatments included th e followin g co mbination s: 1 ) weeding with shading; 2) no weeding with shading; 3) weedi n g with no s hading ; and 4) no weeding with no s hading Thi s factorial de sig n was analyzed t o determine th e main effects of the treatments and their interactions u s in g analysis of variance. P as ture s were the blocking factor of th e experiment. In the experiments, I planted see d s ( n= 2 00 ) and seedlings with one leaf ( n=lOO ) in each of 4 grass-dominated pastures that had been abandoned from cattle production within the previou s 1 -5 years. Th e se edlin gs for this experiment ( obtained from the

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49 nur s ery s tudi es of see dlin g s ur v i v al ) were known to be 1 6 month s old The seed s were collected from th e fo r es t fl o or and a ny with ev iden c e of prior germination or infection by pathogen s or pr e d a t o r s w e r e dj s card e d In e a c h p as ture, I s h a ded half the se ed s a nd seedling s and l e ft th e o th e r s ex po se d to full s un The seed s and s eedling s were placed in 1 m 2 plot s with hal f o f e a c h pl o t cove r e d by 2 lay e r s of palm leaves su s pended .5 m above the ground I al so w ee d e d th e pa s ture gras s in half of each plot perpendjcular to the shaded area s uch that half the weeded area was in full s un, while the other half was s haded Each o f the 4 p as tur es held 5 plot s. After 4 months I counted the number of seeds that had ge rmin a t e d a nd th e number of plant e d s eedlings that had at lea s t o ne green leaf Cow s in va d ed o n e o th e rwi s e a bandon e d pa s tt1r e and destroyed one block of th e experiment. Results and Discussion Estimating Demographic Parameters Are forest types different? In thi s s tudy, I compared the s lopes and canopy heights of plots within ea c h of thr e e forest type s and found that my categories were s uppo1ted by quantitati v e m e a s ur e m e nt s. For example the mean ( and standard error ) of slopes in mature fo r es t pl o t s wa s 8 d eg re es (2. 1 3); in s e c ond a ry fore s t plot s, the mean slope wa s 5 degr ees (2. 1 7), and in di ss ected f ore s t plot s the mean s lope wa s 16 degree s (3.91 ). Canopy h e i g ht s ge n e rall y de c rea s ed from mature forests ( 21.83 m ) to di ss ect e d forests ( 19.82 m ) t o seco ndar y fo r es t s ( 14.49 m ). U s ing ANOVA followed by a Tukey test, I found that pl o t s in seco ndar y fore s t s had s ignificantly lower canopy height s than the other two fore s t typ es. Alth o u g h th ese te s t rev e aled no difference between the mature

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50 forest and t h e di ssec ted fore s t, looking at the fraction of points at different height i n terval s mig ht s h ow more of the va r iation w i t hi n the three types (Ta bl e 2-6). Ta b le 2-6. M eans a n d ANOV A of forest canopy h eig h ts Tukey contrasts indicate tha t secondary fo r est plots h ave s ignifjcant l y lower canopy he i g h ts t h a n p l o t s in the o t her two forests types. Forest Type Mean Canopy Height Std. Error M ature 2 1 .82 m 1.65 Secondary 14.49 m 1 51 D issected 19.82 m 0.45 So u rce of variation df m s f p B etween Group s 02 71.87 8.29 0055 Within Group s 1 2 08 67 U s ing me as urement s from the 55 points within each 20x50 m plot I found that the fraction of point s at which I measured th e ca nopy to be O 5 m was 0.0 I in matu r e forests ; 0.12 i n secondary fore s t s; and 0.05 in di ssec ted forests ( Figure 2-4 ). The fraction of points where canopy hei g ht mea s ur eme nt s were 25 30 m was 0 39 i n matu r e forest plots ; 0.09 i n secondary fore st plot s; and 0.31 in di ss ected forest p l o t s. Dissected forests bad more po in ts from O 5 m and from 10 20 m than mature forests on flat terrain. T h e pattern of h eig h ts in dis sec ted fore s t s see m to differ from that of b oth mature and secondary forests, but the d i fferenc e i s not s i g n i ficant ba se d o n this measure

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C: Q.) .... 1--4 c:l -B ~ Cl) .... s 0 4-4 0 0 .... I-< 0.4 0.3 0 2 0.1 0 5 m 5 10 m 10 15 m 15 20 m 20 25 m 25 -30 m Height Intervals j Mature E1 Secondary Dissected I Figure 2 4. Fraction of points measured within each height interval in three forest types. 51

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52 Does the distribution of life stages vary by forest type? I found that the density of juveniles was higher and that of adults was lower in secondary forests compared with the two mature forest types ( p=.05 based on the results of a Tukey HSD test following ANOV A). The two mature forest types did not differ from each other at this level of significance. Seedling density did not differ significantly among the three forest types. Because I observed higher densities of juveniles in secondary forests, I assume that more juveniles survive in seco ndary forests than under mature forest. Although the differences in densities of juveniles might be ca u se d by a pulse of germination in the recent past or slower growth rate s, because of the lengthy duration of the seedling stage it seems more likely that the observed difference s in juvenile den s ity are the result of higher juvenile survival rates, rather than greater germination, in secondary forests. In dissected forests, the distribution of life stages forms a more nearly reverse J-shaped curve than in other forest types ( Figure 2-5). Becau se the number of see dlings did not differ among the three forest types, subsequent analyses focu s on juvenile and adult (size classes l 6) distrjbution while only adults (s ize classes 4 6) are included in the analysis of reproduction. Do size class frequency distribution differ by forest type? While inspection of life stages gives a broad overview of difference s in population structure among the three forest types focu s ing on s ize class difference s allows clarification of finer grained changes. To determine if s ize classes are represented differently among the three forest types (Figure 2-6), I u sed three Kolmogorov-Smirnov 2-sample tests on all possible combinations of for est typ e a nd found that the distributions were significantly different

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1100 1000 900 800 7 00 Cl) ::::s 600 "'O 0 s > "'O (.) C 0 1--C ..c:: 500 ........ Q) 400 3 00 2 00 100 0 m a ture s e c ondary .. ... F o r es t T y pe s di ss ect e d -' ' '""""' ... . .. -_,..., .. It ... ul juvenile s a dult s I Fi g ure 2 -5 M ea n ( SE ) numb e r o f Iriar tea s eedling s ( size clas s 0 ), ju ve n i le s (s i ze c l ass e s 1 -3), an d ad ult s (s i ze c l asses 4 6 ) p e r h e ctar e in thre e f o re s t t y p es 5 3

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300 250 ,. 200 150 I 100 .. . ,. .. ,50 T ,. ... T' ... .... .L II T' __ r ... ... ,I L ,4I 0 "TI l'ili' ... tt r-E rE' 1 71 . I I I I I 0.2-0 5m 0.5-5m 5-lOm 10-15m 15-20m >20m I [3 Mature Se condary Dissected j Figure 2-6. Mean ( SE ) number of Iriartea individuals per he ctare in size c l asses 1 6 in three forest types ( n=5 plot s per fo r e s t type). 54

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55 ( p < .0001). (In thi s s tudy I used s ize classes based o n hei ght, but given that diameter is generally easier to measure and that a regression of hei gh t and diameter produced an r sq uare value of .83, I wou ld encourage testing the relationship between height and diameter in future s tudie s of sti l t-rooted palms.) The number of indi vidua l s withi n a size class differs most dramatically among the forest types in the juven il e ( 0.2 0.5 m) size class. The high relative abundance of these individual s in secondary forests in contrast with mature forests (a nd their absence from pastures) s u ggests this species n1ay fit the category of c limax species that benefit from s hade for seedling establishment, but also benefit from increased light levels (usually from canopy gap formation) to relea se see dlings and juveniles (Whitmore 1989). If this i s correct, the implication is that secondary forests, with higher light level s, allow seedlings to be rele ased and s urvive to become juveni l es at higher rates than in mature forests. Older juveniles and younger adults must tolerate shade as the forest grows around them In mature forests, relatively few juven il es were found, perhaps s urvi vors of canopy gaps that have now closed. In dissected mature forests, higher mean densities of individuals 0.5 15 m tall s t1 ggest a spa tial mixture of li g ht levels providing suffic i ent light to release juveniles with enough sha de to encourage seed lin g estab li shment. Population Dynamics Does reproduction diff'er among forest types ? To determine whether the number of seedlings and juveni l es was correlated with the density of adults with the potential to reproduce I compared the proportion of adults found in each forest type. In mature forests, 67% of individual s, other than seedlings, were adults(> 10 m tall ); in

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56 secondary forest s, 8 % were adult s; and in fore s ts with varied terrain 36 % were adults. I compared the proportion of adt1lt s with mature fruits at the time of the census in each forest type to under s tand if th e number of reproductive adults in a given year differed among forest typ es. I cho s e m a ture fruits ( full sized and brown in color) becau s e adults with infructescence s in thi s s ta g e c ould reasonably contribute to reproduction within the current year. Mo s t adult s that did not have mature fruits had flowers or immature fruits that might take mor e than a year to ripen. I found no differences among forest types in the proportions of adult s with mature fruits ( p=.914 ) To determine if reproductive adult s in the three type s pr o du ce d diff e r e nt a mount s of fruit within a year, I compared the mean number of fruits per ha ( ba s ed on the fraction of fruiting adults, mean number of infructescences per fruitin g adult and the mean fruits per infructescence) within the three forests (Figure 2-7 ). U s ing ANOVA followed by a Tukey test, I found that mature forests differ from second a ry and di ss ected forest s in the amount of fruit produced ( p<.001 ). Reproduction, therefore differ s a mong forest type s and differences in reproduction among forest types apparently d e pend s on different abundances of adults and the amount of fruit produced per reprodu c tiv e adult Does reproduction differ among size classes? If size classes differ in fruit production differen c e s in r e production among fore s t types may depend on the distribution of size classe s within th e for es t s. The mean number of infructescences observed growing on individuals 10 15 m tall wa s 0 48 ; the mean on individuals 15 20 m tall was 0.91; and the mean on individual s > 20 m tall was 1 32. An ANOV A indicates that the mean number of infructe se nce s per adult differ s among size classes (p= 0725) with 10 15 m

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c,::s .c .... 0 c.. 6000 5000 4000 Z 3000 2000 1000 0 ... ,... .. -t:;;::: .,.. . Matu r e Seco n dary Dissected I B Fru i t Seedli n gs Juveniles I Fi g ur e 2-7. M ean SE) of I riartea fruits, seed l i n gs, and j u ve nil es per h a i n m a tu re, seco nd ary, and di sse cted fore s t type s ( n = 5 plots per fores t type). 57

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58 individuals producing significantly fewer, using an LSD test. In a two-factor ANOVA using forest and size c la ss with arcs in e tran sfo rmed proportions ( Table 27 ), reproduction was significantly grea ter for taller s iz e classes ( p= 087 ), but did not differ by forest type Table 27. Two-f ac tor ANOV A u s ing fo re s t and s ize class with arcsine transforrned proportions of r ep r od u ct iv e ad ult s. Source of variation df m s f D Forest 2 .01 06 946 Size class 2 .49 2.64 087 Within + Re s idual 32 19 Flowering phenology In a st udy of adult reproductive phenology ( November 1995 through Octob er 1996 ), I found that 59 of 69 ( 86 %) individuals flowered at least once (Figure 2-8). Two of th e t e n n o n flowering individual s were s11rprisingly, emergent palms > 20 m tall. One of the se individuals had mature fruit at the beginning of the s tudy, but became infirm and produ ced neither new leave s nor open inflorescences. The other emergent palm h ad 3 in f ruct escences with mature fruit and a large inflorescence bud that did not open within the time of the s tudy. Mo s t of the other non-flowering palm s were in the 10 15 m s i ze c l ass a nd were in th e crown ex po s ure class with only some s ide light Bec a u se fl ower in g i s primar i l y a n annual event (a lthough some individuals did flower more than o n ce during the year of observation), I assume the population of Iriartea is characterized by an annual birth pulse in co nducting the matrix analysis. The period

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I Nin flower I 40 I,., 35 0 0 30 C C 25 8 ca 0., 20 ...... 15 0 I,., 0 10 .0 5 z 0 N D J '96 F M A M J '96 J '96 A s 0 95 '95 96 '96 96 '96 '96 '96 96 600 -----------------------, 500 E 400 (J ........ ca 300 j 200 1 00 [ -11mean rainfall mean 86-'94 j o~----------------------N D J F M A M J Months J A S 0 59 Figure 2-8. Reproductive phenology from November 1995 through October 1996 (top) and mean monthly rainfall for the same period (November 1995 through October 1996 and long-ter1n monthly means for the years 1986 1994 (bottom)

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60 from March Jun e, when I o b se r ve d fewest open flower s, corresponds to the period with greatest mean monthly rain fa l l based on re co rd s for the years 1986-1994 did not open within the time of the s tudy. M os t of th e other non flowering palm s were in the 10 15 m size cla ss and were in t h e crown expos ur e c l ass with only so me s ide light. Becau se flowering i s primarily an annual event (a lthough some individuals did flower more than once durit1 g th e yea r of observation), I assume the population of lriartea is characterized by a n a nnu a l birth pulse in conducting the matrix analysis. The period from March June when I observe d fewest open flowers, corresponds to the period with greatest mean m on thl y rainfall based on re co rd s for the years 1986 1994 Seed germination and seed ling survival In a greenhouse s tudy 81 of 150 (5 4 %) of seeds germinated within six m o nth s (F igure 2-9). An earlier s tudy by Jordan ( 1970 ) of palms in northea ste rn P er u based on two g roup s of 100 s eeds each, found germination at the rate s of 79 % and 18 % In a s tudy in P er u 30 00 lriart ea seeds were planted in fore s t plot s, 937 established see dlin gs that s ur v i ve d one year ( Losos 1995 ). Littl e in sec t damage to seeds was reported in another s tudy in Peru ( Kiltie 1981 ) while Losos ( 1995 ) found 15 % invertebrate predation in h e r st udy. In nur se ry experiments using 600 ger1rtinated seed s, 368 see dlin gs ( 6 1 o/o) s 11r vi ved six m on th s. Growth rate s. A nnual g r owt h rat es for p a lm s in each s ize class, ba se d on the mean intemode len gt h per meter of s t e m hei g ht (Ta ble 2-8) and the annual leaf production rate (Figt1re 2-10) provide an est im a te of c umulative age and size cla ss duration. For example, individuals 5 m tal l are estimate d t o have grown at a compo s ite rate made up of

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90 ti) 80 "'O 0 70 0 ti) "'O 60 0 .... g 50 40 c... 0 30 ... 0 .D 20 z IO 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Months of observation 7 /95 1/96 Figure 2-9 Seed s germinated within s ix months in nursery experiments conducted outdoors with shade provided by citrus trees and heliconias and water by rainfall 61

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62 Table 2-8. Mean inter n ode l e n g th per met er of stem height. Meter of Stem M ea n (cm) S. E. N 1 04.96 0 .96 50 2 23.12 1.47 32 3 28.28 1.63 32 4 29.17 1.70 29 5 29. 14 1 .62 28 6 30.32 1.53 26 7 29.88 1 .57 24 8 29.50 1 .92 21 9 28.90 1 .98 21 10 28.9 1 1.81 18 11 29.21 2. 11 18 12 28.30 2.22 17 13 28.56 1.94 16 14 26.75 2. 1 7 16 15 24.23 2.37 15 16 21.78 2.55 1 2 17 2 1. 28 1 .96 I 1 18 17.00 2.00 11 19 1 6.41 2 73 11 20 12.17 1 .85 10 mean for >20 07.91 1 .00 10

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63 3.5 = 0 3 .:: T ~ CJ = "0 2 5 0 ""' c; 2 1 1 5 1 = 0.5 0 . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . .. . . . . . . . . '+' . . . . 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Size Class Figure 2 10. Mean (( SE ) annual leaf production by size cla ss.

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64 the growth rate for see dlin gs juv e nil es 0.2-0.5 m and juveniles 0.5 5 m (Table 2-9). As expected, growth rate s increase with he i ght until the tal l est stages ( Figure 2-11 ). Tab l e 2 9 Annual growth, s i ze c la ss duration and cumulative age per size class assuming slow, mean, and fast growth rate s for a ll s ize classes. m/yr 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 slow 0.01 0.05 0 .3 0 0 44 0 77 0 40 0 20 mean 0.01 0 .0 6 0.27 0.47 0 82 0.50 0.20 fa s t 0.01 0.09 0 .36 0.59 0.85 0.51 0.21 yrs/class s l ow 47 40 9.95 20 0 11.3 6.10 10.1 50.5 mean 33.60 7.69 22. 0 10.6 6.50 11 3 50.5 fast 29.80 5. 7 4 16.6 8.5 5.90 9.7 48 .7 ae;e slow 47.4 57.35 77.35 88.65 94.75 104.85 155.35 mean 33 6 41.29 63.29 73.89 80 39 91.69 142.19 fa st 29.8 35.5 4 52.14 60.64 66.54 76.24 124.94 M ortalit y. A co mpo s it e annual mortality rate for s eedlings, based on death s amo n g marked individual s in fo r est plot s, observed for one ( n=88 ) or two years ( n=66 ), was 0.5398 de a th s yr 1 By th e e nd of seco nd year, 45 of the 66 seedlings tagged in 1994 h ad d i ed and 65 of the 88 t agged in 1995 had died The overall mortality rate was ba s ed on the mean of annual mort a lity for eac h g roup Because mortality r ates were so low for s ize classes 1 6, these classes were gro u ped into juvenil e a nd adult s t ages fo r ca l culating morta l ity rate s The annual morta l ity

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160 140 120 -.. 100 i b Q,) 80 60 40 20 .2 m .5 m Sm 10m Height (m) 15m 20m 30m I -<>slow -amean -trfast j Figure 2-11. Annual g rowth r ates ass umin g s l o w mean and fast growth rates 65

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66 rate for juveniles ( n=35) w as 0.0286 dea th s yr 1 and for adults ( n=79 ), the rate was 0.0237 deaths yr 1 Many s tudi es in plant population biology r epo rt that mortality i s highest for s mall size classes because individuals within them are vulnerable to a variety of dangers (e.g., Horvitz and S c h emske 1995; Sarukhan 1980 ). For example, in areas where little hunting occurs, seeds ca n be da m age d when f ruit is eaten, a nd see dlings are vulnerable to trampling by lar ge animal s while in areas with fewer animals, survival rates may be greater ( Dir zo and Miranda 1 99 1 ; Janzen a nd Mart i n 1982 ; Redford 1992). In co ntr as t, survival might increa s e in area s w ith the right kinds of animals. For example, the palm Maximilliana maripa ( n ow Attalea mar ip a) benefits from di s per sa l away from the par e nt plant by tapir s (Fragoso 1 997). Whil e so me s tudi es have documented a decline in plant population s following a decline in animal di spe r ser population s ( Chapman et al. 1992 ), others have argue d for a l ooser con n ec tion b etwee n fruit and di s per se r ( Howe 1985 ) o r for the importanc e t o ecosy s tem function of subst itution rather than s pecialization in consumers ( Lind ema n 1 942). Management Information Crown exposure categories To understand the potential for management intervention s to encourage growth of It ia r tea, s u c h as liberation thinning to in crease the available li g ht l evel I ca 11 i ed out a nal yses of the di st ribution of individual s, fruit production and growt h r ate s by expos ur e category (Fig ure 2-12). Annual leaf produ ct ion increased dram atica ll y for indi v idu als t hat reached the full overhead light and emergent

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67 3.5 --------------------------, 3 c:: 0 2.5 u ::::3 "O 0 1-,j 2 1.5 cd ::::3 1 c:: c:: < 0.5 1 2 3 4 5 6 Size Classes emergent [!] full overhead some overhead some side light no direct light Figure 2-12. Mean SE) annual leaf production rates by crown exposure category. ( See Table 2-3 for sample sizes.)

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68 categories ( ANOVA p < .000 1 ), but these individuals were also> 14 m tall (s ize classes 4-6). In tests to determin e if ex p os ure class or height was responsible for the increased growth, I found n o sig nifi ca nt differences among exposure classes when size clas s was held constant alth o ugh in size c l ass 4 ( IO 15 m ) a larger sample size might have revealed differences (ANO VA p = .1 114 n=5 ). For the s mallest individuals ( < 0.5 m tall), the growth rate wa s s ignificantly g reater for individuals with higher exposure (ANOV A, p=.0413, n=35 ). Based on m y ph e nolo g i ca l s tudy, n o n flowering individuals tended to grow in areas with less ava il a bl e li g ht Th e me a n number of infructescence s per adult also increased as exposure in c r eased ( p=.0931 ). Again when exposure within each size class was examined n o s ignifi ca nt diff e r e n ces were found Future studies with larger s amples and longer tim e fr a me s might be a bl e to make finer distinction s and expand on management impli ca tion s of hi g h e r li g ht level s for increased growth and reproduction. Of course, pasture expe riment s s u ggeste d that ge rmination and seedling survival can be diminished by too mu c h ex p os ur e Pasture Regeneration In a n ex periment intended to help understand the potential for silvicultt1r a ]ly e n co ura gi n g see d ge rmination and seedling survival in pastures, I found significantly mor e s t1r vival w h e r e grass w as l e ft uncut than where initial weeding wa s the treatment. Thi s di ffe r e nc e was fo und both for s haded and unshaded subplots. In plot s in three abandoned pastures, l 0 % of see ds set out in full sun gertninated and s urvived for four month s (31 of 30 0 ), while 1 7% of tho se covered by shade gerrninated ( 50 of 300 ). Interactions with the blocking fac tor pa s ture were found (Table 2-10). One pasture was

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Table 2-10. Two-by-two factorial ANOV A u s ing grass and sun with pasture as the blocking factor to determine sources of variation in lriartea seed survival. Source of variation df ms f J Pasture 2 .52 .23 .799 Grass 1 14 .02 6.12 .017 Sun 1 1 .35 59 .447 Pasture x grass 2 3.02 1.32 .278 Pasture x sun 2 6.35 2.77 .073 Grass x su n 1 .82 .36 .553 Pasture x grass x 2 10.52 4.59 .0 15 sun Residual 48 2.29 wetter than others; perhap s thi s l e d to an interaction with grass because in other pastures, grass provided additional shade. Thi s s hade could have increased soil moisture, from which seeds did not benefit in th e wetter pasture. In pasture experiments, 63 of 150 seedlings (42%) planted without s hade su rvived four months, while 91 of 150 (6 5 %) of those covered by shade s urvived over thi s time period (Table 2-11). Harvesting Simulations In the following sect io11, I di sc u ss th e consequences of several harvesting intensities for the s u s t ainabi lit y of l riartea populations u s ing the population dynamic s, described above, as the ba sis for matrix model projections Transition matrices for populations within the three fore s t types s how A> 1.0 in all three forests (Figure 2-13). 69

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Table 211 Two-by two factorial ANOV A u s in g grass and su n with pasture as the blocking factor to dete r mine s ot1rce s of var i atio n in seed ling s urviv a l Source of variation df ms f p Pa s ture 2 20.42 7.34 .002 Gra ss l 6.67 2.40 .128 Sun 1 13.07 4.69 035 Pasture x grass 2 15 1 2 5 .43 .00 7 Pastur e x s un 2 3.82 1.37 .264 Gra ss x s un 1 .60 .22 .645 P as ture x grass x 2 1.05 .38 .688 s un R esidual 48 2.78 70

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71 Seedling .2-.5 m .5-5 m 5-lOm 10-15 15-20 >20m 02231 0 0 0 1 36 139 289 00069 .8646 0 0 0 0 0 0 .1054 9160 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0540 8646 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 054 .8 1 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 29 .8816 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0934 .9 552 Mature Forest (A= l .0 1 ) .02231 0 0 0 253 253 285 .00069 .8643 0 0 0 0 0 0 .105 7 .9218 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0482 .8643 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 057 .8197 0 0 0 0 0 0 .1553 8800 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0950 .95 51 Secondar y Forest ( A= 1 .14 ) .02231 0 0 0 58 200 158 .00069 .864 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 1057 .9178 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0522 8646 0 0 0 0 0 0 .1014 .8 1 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 1616 .8806 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0944 .9552 Di ssec ted Forest ( A= 1 .003 ) Figure 2-13. Tr ansition matrice s for m a tur e seco ndary and di ssec ted forests. The top row of the matrix g i ves fecundity r ate s fo r adult s i ze classes ( denoted by Fi). The major diagonal pro v id es P 1 tl1e probabi l ity of s ur v i v ing and r e maining in a s i ze class. The subdiagonal show s G i the probability of su r vivi ng and growing into the next class.

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72 Stable stage distribution Although natural population s are unlikely to mat c h the stable s tage distribution, compar in g the obse r ve d distributions of s ize classes from th e s tudy pl ots with the calcu l ated s t ab l e tage di s tribution allows an analysis of the deviation of the observed population f r o m sta bilit y. Wh i l e A i s not a true mea s ure of population growth if th e populati o n i s differe11t from th e sta ble di s tribution, it i s positively correlated with the growth rate ( Caswell 1989, 1 7 1 ) In m a ture forests, I counted fewer juvenile s from 0 .2 5 .0 m than the s t ab l e stage di s tributi o n ; in seco ndary forests, I found fewer indi viduals from 5.0 15.0 as wel l as> 20 m ; and in di ssecte d forests, I found fewer individual s 0.5 -5.0 m and> 20 m ( Table 2-12). Sensitivity and elasticity The r e lati ve influ ence of different population parameter s o n t h e va lu e of A in eac h of th e three fores t types makes clear that A i s mor e sensitive to change s in su r v i va l parameters ( P i) th a n either fecundity ( F i) or growth to a new cla ss (G;) (Table 2-13). This rest1lt is s imilar t o t h ose found in other palm s tudie s (e.g., Pinard 1 993; Pinero et al. 1984 ). In mature and dissected forests, s urviv al within 0 .5 5 m and> 20 m size classes has most influence on changes in A. In seco ndar y forests, survival in the 0 5 5 m s i ze clas s i s most imp ortant for population s t abi lit y. In co ntr ast, Pinard ( 1993 ) found that survival rat es of palm s 5 20 m were mo s t imp o rt ant for s tability in the population of Iri artea s he s tudi ed in Bra zil. This diff e r e n ce mi g ht b e the re s ult of difference s in growing co nditi ons between t he two s ites; for exam pl e, she reported that individual s reached reproductiv e s ize at 1 4 m; whereas I o b served reproduction beginning with 10 m

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73 Table 21 2. Comparison of observed d i s tributi ons with projected stable stage distribution in three forest type s. s iz e class ssd ssd o b se r ve d diff ere n ce % diff er 10 4 matur e 0 0.984 984 942 -22 -2 1 0.005 50 16 -34 -68 2 0 005 50 20 -30 -60 3 0.002 20 28 8 40 4 0.00 1 10 14 4 40 5 0.001 10 60 50 500 6 0.002 20 54 34 1 70 seco ndary 0 0.979 979 588 -291 -30 1 0.005 50 22 4 1 74 348 2 0.005 50 64 14 28 3 0.002 20 6 14 -70 4 0.0009 9 6 -3 -33 5 0.001 10 14 4 40 6 0.002 20 4 16 -80 dissect e d 0 0.976 976 708 -168 -1 7 l 0.005 50 44 6 1 2 2 0.006 60 56 -4 6 3 0.002 20 96 76 220 4 0.001 10 46 36 360 5 0.002 20 40 20 100 6 0.003 30 24 -6 -20

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74 Table 2-13. Elasticity value s for su r vival, growt h and fecundity Forest Type Survival ( P ) Growth ( G ) Fecundity (F) mature 0.873 0.108 0.020 0.861 0.116 0.022 dissected 0.879 0.102 0 019 individual s. Although an e l as ticity analysis wa s not included in their research on Iriart ea, Balslev and Svennin g ( 1997 ) argued that a l ow frequency of juveniles was responsible for the finding that A < 1.0 for th e population they studied. Finding juveniles or subadults important for population s t a bilit y i s not surprising because individuals in these size classes have survived the hi g h mortality of the s eedling stage yet have a]l their reproductive potential ahead of them. Mor e s u11)ri s ing is the importance of individuals> 20 min mature and dis sec t e d for es t s. I ass ume thi s is a result of the combined effects of low mortality and continu ed high reproductive value for this size class (Figure 2-14). Simulation s of sustained harvesting. In simu lations of sustained harvesting,).. fell below 1.0 after 10 % reductions in st1rvival probabilities for individuals > 15 m tall in mature and dissected fore s t s and after 20% reductions in survival for the same size class in secondary fore s ts ( Figure 215 ) F or ex ample, in a mature forest increased annual harvesting of individu a l s > 1 5 m r educe d A ( 1.01 initially) from 0.987 with a 10 % harvest to 0.966 with I OO o/o har ves tin g. In sec ondary forest plots, ).. was initially 1.014, but fell to 0.996 with a reduction in s urvival probabilities of individuals > 15 m tall by 20 % and to .980 with reduction s of 1 OO o/o. These c hange s are consistent with the elasticity analysis of secondary forests in which I found surv ival of juveniles had a greater impact on ).. than

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75 Ma t u r e 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 P o P ) p 6 = 0.23 4 Seco nd ary f 0 I 2 3 4 5 6 P o p 2 = 0 .222 P ) D issec t ed f 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 P o p 2 = 0 .206 P ) Figure 2 14 El as ti ci t y a n a l yses i n d i ca t e that s urvi v al P i, ha s mo s t influence on chan ges in A in all three f o r es t ty p e T he l if e cyc l e di agra m s indicate tran s ition s with the greate s t elasticity valu es.

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1 01 1 cU "O .0 0.99 .... 0 0 ::, ca 0.98 > 0 97 0.96 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 % Reduction in survival rate of palms > 15 m tall mature -02ndary _._ dissected j 80 90 100 Figure 2-15. Changes in A when survival rates are lowered in increments of 10% to simulate sustained harvesting. 76

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77 fecundity or g rowth at any s t age; th e ref o r e, harve s ting individuals> 15 m tall has le ss effect on A than in mature forest s. In matur e forests, A was most sensitive to the survival of palm s in th e tall est s i ze class; m a ll in c r eases in mortality at this stage reduced A below 1 0 One-time harvests In si mul a tion s of a total harve s t of individuals > 15 m tall, I found that populati o n s returned to their or i g in a l d e n s itie s in mature forests ( 114 individuals> 15 m tall / h a) af t er 220 years with no further harvesting ; in the secondary forest plot s ( 1 8 indi v idt1al s > 15 m tall / h a), o riginal population densities returned after 15 years ; and in dissected forests (64 i ndi v idual s > 15 m tall / ha ), after 14 years (Figure 216 ). In her st udy in Acre Pinard ( 1993) estimated the lriartea population there would recover from s imil a r har vesti n g in 140 years, a lth o u g h s he s uggested that the effects of canopy opening a ft er h a r vest mi g ht enco ur age more rapid growth and hence more rapid replacement of indi v idu a l s. Clearly the recovery time d i ffere n ces invol ve more that simply the numbers of individual s cut. In the mature forest r e lati ve l y fewer individuals are available in the smaller stages to grow and replace the num e rou s harve s ted adults. The faster recovery time in di ssec ted forest s is presumably related to th e higher densities of juvenile palms found there These higher d e n s iti es m ay refl ec t the consequences of slopes and ridge s for growth. On s l opes, crowns of t r ees may receive b ot h full overhead li ght and lateral light in contra s t with tr ees on flat gro und whe r e u s ually o nly overhead light is available to non emergents. Tr op i ca l foresters e mph asize th e importance of crown position and crown exposure for tre e growth (A ld er and Synnott 1 992; Berner 1992 ). In secondary forest,

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Cl) 200 Q) ;;:j Cl) C: Q) 0 -0 Q) a) 150 Cl) .0 0 0 e 100 B Q) 0 ...i Cl) Q) 50 Percent Harvest of Individuals > 15 m -<>mature for est -II2nd forest -1:r-dissected for est Figure 2-16. Projected recovery time for a return to observed densities of the two tallest size classes after one-time harvesting at rates from 10 100 %. 78

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79 both relatively high den si tie s of juveniles and low original densities of adults allow for rapid return to pre harv e t frequency distributions after harvesting. In fact, based on expected survival rat e if the growth co ntinued in the secondary forest for 100 years, 120 adults per ha would be predicted. Of co ur se, environmental factors are unlikely to remain unchanged over that l 00 yea r s even if the area could be set aside and protected from harvesting. Thi s "seco ndary forest" was in agricultural use 30 years ago; in 100 years, future observer s mi ght well de cribe it as mature" forest. S imul at i ons of pasture c l earing. In a simulation intended to mimic the effects of pasture clearing, I redu ced the density of individuals < 15 m to 0, then followed regeneration for 80 year after pa s ture abandonment using the transition matrix for secondary foresl s and th e d e n si ly of individua l s> 15 m found in secondary forest plots Assuming that the forest would b e more mature after 80 years, I switched to the matrix for mature fore sts a nd after a n o ther 40 years, the distribution of individuals among size classes returned to o r excee d ed o rigin a l level except for the 0.2-0 5 m class (Table 2-11 ). Clearing pasture s ca n di turb a population for an estimated 120 years, even if the tallest adults are s pared A n a l ys i s of sim ul at i o n s. What do harvesting simulations tell us? Based on the analysis in which all individt1als > 15 m are removed, mature forests are poor choices for harvesting in spite of the high nt 1 mb er of the tallest adults found there. Because relatively few juvenile grow i n mature for e ts, replacement rates are too slow to encourage harve st in g. Di sected fore t can be a poor choice logistically in spite of the.

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80 Table 2 14. Ob serve d n1 ea n den s it y of Iriart ea in seco ndary fore s t plots (n=S) compared with projected den s iti es 1 2 0 yea r s af t er s imulated pasture clearing and harvesting of all individuals < 15 m tall Size Clas s Ob e r ve d Proj ec ted ( 120 years) <0 2m 588 10 83 0.2 0 5 m 224 45 0.5 5 m 64 65 5-10 m 6 2 5 10 15 m 6 11 15 20 m 14 14 >20m 4 2 5 relatively high numb e r s of th e t a ll est a dult s and faster replacement rate. The slopes and ridges that encoura ge g rowth ca n b e q uit e di co uraging to human harvester s Ultimately th e c h o i ce l ef t i t o conc e ntrat e on se condary forests where regeneration ha s b eg t1n a nd to l oo k fo r sec ondary forests with higher densitie s of individual s> 15 m tal l In addition, i f s paring s maller adults and juveniles is encouraged in agricultural l a nd pa s tur e a nd fields that are eve ntually left fallow have the potential to replace harve s ted in d i v idu a l s quickly. For example in a secondary forest with 18 individuals > 15 m / h a ( a found in tl1is s tudy ), after 15 years, the 18 harvested individuals will be r e placed Wi t h th e di s tribution found at that time ( assuming no additional harve s t i n g or p as tu re c l ea rin g), after a11other 15 years 45 individuals> 15 m should be found in a h ec tar e. If a ll 45 are har ves ted and all s maller size classes left to grow in 25 year s, th e 45 in dividua l s> 15 m will once again be replaced.

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81 While s par i ng ju ve nile s and adults 10 15 m tall could make an important difference in reco ve ry time s after forests are cleared for agriculture, a problem exists with the perception that palms g row quickly. In general, people I spoke with thought lriartea could grow from seed ling to adult in about IO years, whereas my results indicate that an adult lriartea just beginning to reproduce (a bout 10 m tall ) is likely to be 60 90 years old. This perception of rapid g rowth i s consistent with findings in other palm studies (Pena Claros 1996; Pinard J 993), although in Sonora, local people knew that the Sabal uresana grew slowly ( Joyal 1996 ). Clearly, any effort to encot1rage management for increased harvesting of Jr; artea will require extension projects to provide more accurate infor1nation about growth rat es of the pa]m and the concomitant need for management practices that will prevent it s extirpation. A s with other abundant species, such as buffalo or passenger pigeons in the US, perceptions of limitle ss s upply can lead to over-exploitation. Conclusions This chapter foct1ses o n s tock s and flows of Iriartea by attempting to answer the following que s tion s: Wher e i s it ?" How much is there?" and "How can demographic studies inforrn management decisions within the context of changing land use and fore s t conversion ?" Simt1l a tion s of h arvest in g h e lp answer the s e questions by exploring the biological potential for SL 1 sta inabl e harve s ting give n current growth, reproduction, and mortality rate s. To answer th e question, Wh ere is it ?" I found Iriartea growing in clumps within each forest but in th e m a tur e forest, r e latively few individuals of intertnediate heights were found Havin g few i11di v idu a l s to replace quickly the numerous members of the

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82 tallest size cl ass m ea n th a t r ecove r y tim e a ft e r harv e sting is extremely slow in this forest type. In contra s t in seco ndar y fo r es t s, few e r individual s in the tallest s ize classes were found, but the abun d an ce of m ed ium -s i ze d individual s s hould allow rapid recovery to original adult popul a ti o n d e n s iti es In di ss e c ted mature forest s, higher mean densities of individuals 0.5 15 m tall than in mature forest s s uggest the mix of light levels there will encourage juv e nil e s t1r v i v al a nd ra pid recovery after harvesting, yet the challenges of steep slopes or s tr e am s f o r human s h a ve made them unlikely locations for harvesting. In ter1n s of the p ot e ntial for s u s tainable harvesting targeting mature forests seems the worst po ss ibl e a lt e rn a ti ve. A pra c ti c al a lternative might encourage harvesting from secondary for es t s in co n ce rt w ith e n co ura g in g agriculturalists to leave standing more 5 15 m individual s wh e n p a s tur es a r e c l e ared. In c rea s ing local awareness of the time needed for replacem e nt and in ce nt i v es t o s p a r e s m a ller individuals could enhance the potential for harvesting from seco nd a r y for es t s af t e r pa s tur es and agricultural plots are abandoned Answering the qu es ti o n How much i s there?" defines the parameters of the sustainability di s cu ss i o n Th e interpr e tation of s u s tainability used here emphasized maintaining curr e nt l eve l s of th e r eso ur ce a nd under s tanding pre s sures affecting its density and distribution Th e p opu l a ti o n l eve l s d esc rib e d in my re s earch might be quite different from distribution s fo un d a ce ntur y o r ev en a few decades ago. Sustainability inevitably involves a de c i s i o n to c h oose so m e p o int in time a s a s tandard to preserve Because thi s study was condu c t e d for a limit e d tim e, th e r es ult s s hould be interpreted cautiously, although my findin gs we r e s imil ar to th o s e of Pinard ( 1993) in most instances.

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83 The qu est i on, 11 H ow can demog r a phi c s tudie s inform management deci s ion s within the context of c han gi n g la,,d u se a n d forest co nver s ion ?" require s a social as well as biological an s wer ( The fo ll owi n g c hapter addresses s ome of the social is s ues .) National policies of ro a d bt 1i ldi ng and rural e l ec tr i fic a ti o n bring people closer to markets and encourage expan s i o n b y co loni s t in to frontier areas. People with acce ss to natural resources then ha ve ea i er acce b y r oad t o mark e t s in which to sell products made from these resource s. Cl eaii n g agr i c ul tu ral land for pa s ture s or cash crops reduces the numbers of smaller Iriart ea individua l s, yet when the se pa s ture s are abandoned secondary fore s ts may grow up, providin g e n o u gh shade for see dling survival yet enough sun to encourage growth and s urviv a l of j u ve nil es a nd s mall adults. Of course, this regeneration depend s on sparing sufficient I, iart ea see d tree s when for es t s are cleared for agriculture. Defining 1 sufficient" i s n o t o ea~y. Establi s h i n g guide li11 es for co n sc i o n a ble harv es ting requires input from all stakeholder s in th e decision, not imply a n eco lo g ical analysi s. Such guidelines, if they are developed should i nclt 1d e pr ov i s i ons for monitoring unanticipated consequences of harvesting or c h a n ges in futu r e env ironmental co nditions Given the value of spreading risks in agricultur e and t h e increa s in g n ee d s for cas h among Amazonian settlers, a sustainable plan for l1arv es tin g I riartea see m s worthy of further investigation. Harv es tin g l ria,tea ca n f il wi thin c urr e nt land u s e Although clearing agricultural land is encoura ged by n ew ett l e me11t a nd land t e nure policie s, within the context of a variety of pre ss ur es to clea r l a n d, set tler s til I hav e options with regard to the form land clearing tak es. Some fore t co l on i st. c l ea r pastures t o graze cattle, while others devote

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84 land to agriculture in c ludin g polyculture s of annuals and perennials. In either case, trees, especially palm s c a n b e l e ft s tanding. Including trees in pastures or polycultural fields may reduce the ri s k of p es t s s omewhat and helps preserve some ecosystem functions (Ewel and Bigelow 1996 ). P e opl e kn o w that their pastures and agricultural land will not last forever. Swidd e n ag ri c ultur e (s l as h-and burn or s lash-and-mulch) depends on a fallow period during whi c h seco ndar y f o r es t may be g in to regenerate. These secondary forests are ideal location s f o r e xtra c tion o f NTFP s that fit within the cycle of regeneration in areas near to human se ttl e m e nt Sparing lriartea individuals 5 15 m tall could benefit agriculture, encoura g e th e s u s tainability of future harvests, and help ensure the future of this palm as a part o f the Amazonian land s cape.

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CHAPTER 3 THE D EC ISIO N TO HARVEST IRIARTEA IN A CHANGING SOCIAL CONTEXT Today th e di sc i p l ine o f eco l ogy fa ces the challenges of enlarging ecological perspectiv es to in c lud e ht1man values an d n eeds and to identify the major ways in which managed and natur al ecosys t ems aff ec t each other 's long-ter1n well-being If managed ecosystems are v i ewed as int eg r ati n g a lo c al co mmunity with farm, non-farm and natural resource (fo r est, wetland aquatic ) sectors, th e n research is needed to examine interactions beyond the farm for es t or park g ate and the impact of soc ial and economic forces. A world so altered by human activity offers the opportunity and the challenge to expand the scope of the di sc iplin e o f eco lo gy ( Lubchenco et al. 1991 395). Introduction Pe ople l iving in o r n ear tropical for es t s often depend o n the f o re s t for their livelihood s. If th ey can beco m e eco n on1 i cal l y se lf -s uffi cien t with little damage to the forest, more for es t may b e left in tact fo r future ge n e ration s, thus rendering the goal of sustainability m ore lik e ly Whi le in m any way s the likelihood of s u s tainable harvestin g might seem to d epend pri1nari I y o n biological information to determine optimum harvesting rat es, r esearch to und e r s tand social variables is essential to evaluate the potential for s u s t ainable har ves ting Without thi s under s tanding as well as an appreciati o n of t h e link between soc i a l a nd biological proce sses (es pecially when the social context i s Ltnd e r go in g r ap id cha n ge) p r e di ct i o n s a bout the potential for sustainability are likely t o mi ss th e mark 85

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86 Why Examine Socioeconomic Contexts in Studies of NTFP Harvesting? In discu ss in g l a nd d eg r ada ti o n s o c i a l e xplanation s of environmental change are often nece ss ar y ( Bl a iki e a nd Br ookfie ld 1 987). Alth o ugh physical proce ss es are involved in the tran s form a t io n or r eso u rces b y hum a n s, n a tural sciences s imply cannot provide all the answers to qu es ti o n s of s u t a ina b ili t y Furth e rmore the links between social and biological pre ss u res o n 11 o n tim be r f o r es t pr o du c t s (NTFP s) are s uch that increa s ed income from the devel o pm e nt of f o r e t reso ur ces i s quite lik e ly to encourage change in s ocial and economi c c ondit ions ( D ove 1993a). Th ese c h a n ge are likely to work to the detriment of forest-dependent peop l e, es p ecia ll y if th e s t a t e bec o me s involved in protecting the int e re s ts of national elit es ( Bl a i k i e a n d Br ookf i e ld 19 8 7 ) In thi s chap te r I co 11 ce 11tr a t e o n s o c i oec onomic issues important for research on sustainable har ves t i n g of n o n limb e r fo r es t pr o du c t s in the tropics. I develop an example based in the Am azo n ia n r egio n of Ec u a d o r kn o wn a th e Oriente and focu s on c urrent uses of th e palm l riartea deltoidea Ru fz & P avo n ( hereafter Iriart e a). The que s tion of whether re s ident s o f th e O ri ente w ill c h oose t o in c re as e their economic u s e s of the palm is critical for the eco l og i ca l f1 1t t 1 rc o f th is p ec i es. P o tential forest de s truction through changes in land L1 se m ay b e eve 11 m o r e co n se quential for the palm 's future. I will discuss the context in w h ic h th e indi v idu a l d ec i s ion making proce ss is conducted and the national policies th a t se t li m i ts o n i n di v i d ual c h o i c e a nd / or eco nomic behavior through colonization r oa d bt1 il d in g, and co n eq u e nt de f o r es t a tion within Amazonian Ecuador But first I will revi ew an exa m p l e o f th e n ee d t r und e r s t a ndin g s o c ial variable s as they relate to harve s ting, b a ed o n a 11 ag r ofores tr y proj ec t in vo lving rattan in Indonesia.

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87 An Example from Rattan Harvesting One ex a 1n p l e of a p r o j ec t t h at h e ld g r ea t promi se for sustainable harve s ting, ba s ed on ecological f acto r s, was an agrofo r es tr y project that apparently fit smoothly within the local ecologi ca l a n d la n d ten ur e systems; n e v e rthele ss, e conomic, political and s ocial pressure s ha ve l ed to un certai n ty (a t bes t ) a b o ut the s u s tainability of thi s land u s e (Weinstock 19 83 ). In do n esia h as a lo n g tr a dition of fore s t extraction coupled with swidden agri c ultu re (e g ., P e lu so 1 992). F o r exa mpl e, in Ea s t Kalimantan agricultural crops are rotat e d t hro L1 g h a 71 5 year fa ll ow cyc l e by th e Dayak people. In addition they manage fore s t s f o r l o n g-l i ved p ere nni a l cro p s in c luding rubber coffee and fruit tree s Although thes e c r ops pr o d uce in c o me, th ey a r e t o o s low growing to be cut and replaced by food crop s withi n t he no r mal fa ll ow cyc l e. A s hort term perennial that could be cut and sold for ca s h a ft er 71 5 yea r s see m e d t o b e a n id e al s olution to the need for cash and food crops A s it turn ed o u t, a n a p pa r e nt ly id ea l pl a nt w as availabl e Ratt a n s ( pr im ari l y s pecie s of Calarrius) ar e fa s t -g rowing, climbing palm s that occur naturally in f o r es t s r ege n e ra tin g afte r a n t hr o p oge ni c di s turbance and have been u s ed traditionally for b aske t mak in g, ma t s, ca rp e t s, and a multitude of other products Rattans appeared to b e a n i deal eleme n t (sen su Cl ay 1 9 9 2) in an agroforestry project because there already exi s t e d a ma rk e t fo r t h e p r od u c t tr a diti o n a l knowledge of it s horticulture, and rules of acce ss t o la n d where th e pl a n t co uld be c ultivat e d Rattan s can be harvested for market after g r o w in g i n fallows fo r 7 1 5 yea r s, aft e r which th e area can be used again for swidden a g ri c ult u r e. Th e sys te m of sw idd e n / fall o w with rattan worked well until the

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88 market e x pl o d e d w i t h de m a nd fo r f u r nin1r e in N o rth Am e rica Europe, and Japan Price s doubled betw ee n 1976 an d 1977: pr ice tripl e d b e tw ee n 1977 and 1978 ( Peluso 1992 ). A s dem a n d fo r r a tt a n pr o du c t s in c r e a s ed more people worked as traders and cutters, ther e by all ow in g g r ea t e r h a r ves t s fro1n traditional rattan gardens as well as from unmanaged popul at i o n s in n a tur a l fo r es t s. Mi g ration brought new people into the area who lacked ti es t o t r ad iti o n a l land t e n t 1r e sy t e rn s a nd c ttltivation practices. As prices rose, other crops w e r e n eg l ec t e d ; p eo pl e b o u g ht ri ce, ne g lected coffee plants and rubber trees and devot e d th e ir effo rt s to ha r ves tin g ratt a n to o qui c kly Eventually the system that seemed so lik e l y t o s u ccee d wa o ut o f b a l a n ce. Pelu s o ( 1992 120 ) explains that "gangs of youthful ratt a n c utt e r s" too k r a ttan b y f o r c e when acce ss was denied to them In 1989 th e gove rn me nt es t a bli s h e d a ban on the export of unfinished rattan, ostensibly to in crease th e va lu e o f th e pr o du c t b e fore sale outside the country. By finishing rattan o r a ddin g va Ju e l oca ll y, mor e profit s s hould be made by Indonesians, including s m a llh o l de r at l ea ti n th eo r y. Y e t at th e a m e time the rattan trade essentially became a con ce i on f o r the In do n e ia n A oc iati o n of Furniture Producers a group dominated by n a ti ona l e l i t es (D ove 1 993 a ). With control of the fore s t product no longer in the hands of lo ca l p eop l e, th e f o r e t o f E a s t KaJim a ntan thus epitomize the me s s, as it were, of form a J co nt ro l s s u pe ri1np osed on 'traditi o nal form s of forest acces s (Peluso 1992, 116 ) L oca l p e opl e r et ain e d Jit t 1 e c ontrol over the resource after government policies encoura g in g mi g r at i o n and co n ce 11tr a ti o n of wealth disrupted traditional property systems

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89 Thi s proc ess i s not su rp ris in g i f Bl a i k i e a nd Brookfield ( 1987 ) are correct in their argument that politi cal economy provides an esse ntial fr a me of reference for understandin g l and degradation. Thi s per spect i ve focuses on the role of the state in protecting th e power of don1i n ant groups a nd e n co t1ra g ing the accumulation of wealth by national elites ( at the expense of p eop le from t h e p er iphery ) In effect, the "s uccess of the project if r a pidl y increasing demand an d higher pri ces define success, has led to changes in the social and ecological sys tem s an d ultim a t e ly worsening conditions for the original tropical fore s t r esot1rce ma 1 1agers, the D ayaks. Politi ca l power relationships may alter cost-benefit analy ses whe11 the quest i o n s o f who benefits and who pays the co s ts are included ( Sal afsky et al. 1993). Dove ( 1 993a) suggests that this proces s i s hi s t o rically inevitable when the value of resource s controll ed by powerless people i n creases Thi s analysis i s clearly not an optimistic one for tho se of LIS see king hop e ful alternatives for development. Perhaps one useful les so n i s t h at even whe n th e eco lo g i ca l var iable s s uggest success, we are unlikely to establish sustainabl e proj ects if we igno r e the soc ial and economic institutions that may affect the ultim ate ou t come of tho se p r o j ects Moreover we may also learn to plan project s that a n t i cipate the co n seq u ences o f ''s u ccess," es pecially the expected behavior of the state and l oca l el ite s. As we l ea r n from the expe ri e nce of the rubber tappers of Brazil alliance s with internation al organ i zat ion s may al t er ex p ec t e d power relations (e g., Allegretti 1990). Unfortt1nate l y even g i ve n th ese l esso n s, s ustainable development seems no less challengin g fo r futt1r e p r ojects. Ongoing re searc h on both ecological and social

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90 factors at multipl e l evels is essent i a l fo r und e r s tandin g the like l ihood that NTFP harvesting can be encoL 1r age d w ith o ut major di s ruption s. Researc h Q u estions Iri a rt ea grows abL 1 ndantly in A m azo ni a n Ecuador, and because it s s tem produces a durable and b ea u tifu l bui ldi11g mate r ial, the palm ha s the potential to become a more important NTFP thr o u g h deve l opme nt o f ex t e rn a l market s. Yet without adequate understanding of the soc io eco n om i c fac tor s that influence harvesting, plans for increasing markets for Iriart ea prod1 1c t s cou l d lea d t o de c lin es in populations of this palm. To help answer the qu est i on, Wh ,1 t i s the p o te n ti a ] f o r s u s tainable harvesting of Iriartea ?," I will focus on the following r esearch que tions: What are th e co nt ex tt1al fac t o r s at diff e r e nt l eve l s that affect stocks and flows of lriart ea? What are c urr ent u ses a n d what i s the pot e nti a l fo r expansion or diversification of mark etable u ses? What factor s infl L1ence h arve ting deci s ion s: a) fo r household use and b ) for mark e t s ale s? How do es tr ad i tiona l ma n age ment af f ec t c urrent and potential future harvesting? What are the key c han ges u nderway that affect harvesting and how are they related to changing co nt exts a t diff ere nt l eve l s? Wh a t are th e im p li catio n s of these finding s fo r potentiaJ s ustainability of Iriart ea harv est in g?

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Study Site 91 Methods I conducted m y ec olo g i c al r es earch in lowland Ecuador at Jatun Sacha Biological Research Station and th e s urroL1ndi11 g community in Napo Province of Amazonian Ecuador. Jatun Sacha i s lo c ated on t h e Rio Napo ( 01 04' S; 77 36' W) at an elevation of about 450 m and i s c la ss ifi e d as a Tropical Wet Forest (Holdridge 1967), with annual rainfall of 3500 4000 mm and mean annual temperature of 23 C. The station covers an area of 1200 ha; ac c ordin g to the 1995 station de s cription, 70% of this area is primary forest, with secondary for es t makin g Ltp the rest. Much of the secondary forest was abandoned from c uJti vation in coff ee and c acao approximately 30 years ago. Recent land acquisition s by th e r ese rv e includ e a r e a s that were pastures or agricultural cropland until the time of purcha se within th e pa s t IO y e ar s Hunting of mammals has occurred in the past over much of the r es erv e ar e a l e avin g only rodents bats, and a few groups of small monkeys. Peccari es w e re r e portedl y s ighted in s ome remote areas of the reserve, but I saw none myself and did not ob se rve an y damage to the forest floor that I could attribute to them. I neither s aw tapir s and bra c k e t d e er nor herud reports of them from park guards. At Jatun Sa c ha Biolo g ical R es erve three permanent 1 ha plots have been established and inv e ntori e d ; in the se plot s, lriartea was among the ten most frequently encountered tree s p ec i es with diam ete r at br e a s t h e ight ( dbh, i.e., 1 3 m above ground level)> IO cm. In th e upland s ite, 10 7 individual s were found; in a stream valley plot, 44; and in the alluvial plain pl o t 1 3 ( N e ill e t al. 1993 )

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92 My re sea r ch o n harvesting and m arket ing included the community surrounding Jatun Sacha where I stt1d i ed fa1nilies of co loni s t s and lowland Quichua people who owned small farms (abo ut 50 ha per family), mo s t of which included pastures that had been cleared for cattle grazing. I int erv i ewed members of both groups during this study. My interviews with carpenters a nd handi c raft vendors were concentrated in Puyo the provincial capital of P astaza Pr ovi n ce, where a sm all furniture industry was centered (Pedersen and B a l s l ev 1992). I also co ndu c t e d s tudie s with an indigenous group of Shuar people in th e communities of Pritiri s h ka and Centro Consuela in Pastaza Province. I chose these sites be ca u se the co mmt1niti es were within a reasonable distance from the carpenters in Puyo; the re sidents participated in the agricultt1ral market in Puyo and, therefore, had ties to the city; the r es id ents used the palm tr a ditionally ; and I had access to the residents through introducti o n s f r o m a P eace Corps volunteer who worked with them. Pritirishka had electricity a schoo l and o n e store as well as playing fields for soccer; in Centro Consuela, there was n o e l ec tri city, on ly a few f ami li es, and one store, but it had unusual opportunity for socia l interaction because it was lo ca ted at the north end of a bridge where bus passenger s between Pu yo a nd Macas had to l eave one bu s and then walk across the bridge (passable by cars o r trL1cks, but not buses) to co 11tinue their journey on another bus. Methodological Challenges The re search methods I used ot h e r than dir ec t observations, required asking questions and int erp r et in g answers to them. In this s tudy I was constantly aware of the problems in tryin g to "speak the sa 1n e lan guage" as the people who were trying to instruct me in the use of the pa l1n that I know botanically as Iriartea deltoid e a but that they might

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93 know by severa l diff e r e nt name s. Moreov e r they might also know several different palms by those name s. I b ega n 1ny s t L 1 dy believi n g thi s palm wa s known a s pamb[l or chonta de pambfl in the Sp a ni h of Ecuador. I qui c kl y found that so me people u se d the terrn cho nta for all palm s whil e o th e r peop l e Ll e d it to r efe r o nl y to the palm I know as Ba c tris gasipae s ( "peach p a J m"). Thi palm is also co mmon in the areas where I conducted my study and ha s a durabl e ste m that i s L1 se d for many of th e sa me purposes as lriartea. Bactris gasipa es s tem s h ave d a r k wood, as in lr iar t ea, and few people, other than carpenters see m ed to noti ce th e diff e r e n ces in fini s hed products made from the two palms. For many peopl e, th ese two palms, if n o t aIJ palms, were s imply c honta. A s I con tin ued my e du cat i on in th e l ar 1 gt 1ag e of palms I discovered that at lea s t among the Qui ch u a hoLt seho ld s I e n co t1nter e d th e terrn pambtl wa s used to designate my Iriartea Unfortunat e l y. I was tau gh t that th e re are many types of pambfles ; these include Socratea exorrhi za a n d W etti 11i t,1 111 cz.vne ri sis, a s well as lriartea I also learned other names for pambfle s in Qui c l1u a ( carapoto, push ihua kilo, and s hingo ), all of which might be used for one of the se thr ee bot an i ca l s p ec i es depending on the community or even the individual. Am o n g th e Shuar I met, t h e nam e ampakai was used for Iriartea except when it was called y u yu; Wetti11ia was ca ] led kit-un t, a t least by so me people. The terms pambfl macho (" mal e" pam b[l o r J,iartea ) a nd panib[/ e mbra (" female pambfl or Wettinia ) were also used Int eres t ing l y, the m a l e" palm was u se d for it s s tem in construction; the "female ," for it s le ave to mak e Lh atc h Faced with th e c hall e n ge o f differe nt names, diff e rent languages, and different botanical taxon om i es, I tried severa l techn iqu es to c larify the palm I was interested in

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94 talking about. If we w e r e w ithin s ight of a n Iria, ~ tea, I would point to the palm and make efforts to be s ur e w e we r e di sc u ss in g t h e s ame s pecie s, whatever the name given by the person I wa s interviewin g. If ther e we r e no Iriart ea at hand, I would either show a drawing of the palm or de sc rib e it s di s tinguishing features to be sure we were discus s ing only this botanic a l s p ec i es and no t a g r o up of palms that were useful. I was reasonably confident that th ese t ec hn jques worked but occasional discrepancies left me ill at ease For example in one co n versa tion with a co upl e who had moved from the highlands to Amazonian Ecu ador fort y yea r s ea rli e r I asked about u s es and was given a list with no surprises until the wif e said that indi ge nou s people u se the roots to grate yuca ( indeed a use for So c rate a exorrhiza). Th e ht1 sb and i11t er rupted by saying, "That's a different palm." The wife shrugged a nd sa id, But they' r e aJl pambfles." What are the contextual factors at dif'ferent levels that affect stocks and flows of lriartea in Ecuador'? If w e ass um e that individual s act rationally to maximize their own welfare, an analysis of th e context i11 w hi c h actio11s occ t1r ca n be helpful for understanding choices or decisions th a t may l ead to dep l etio n of fo r es t r eso urce s and for evaluating the potential for new policie s to e n cou r age t h e ir co n s ervat i on. Progre ss ive contextualization is a method for focusing on hum an behav i o r then ex plaining the activities or interactions ''by placing them in progr ess i vely wid e r or den se r co ntext s'' ( Vayda 1983 265). Observations begin by focusing on specific activ it ies, p er formed in a given place and time by people of interest Using thi s techniqt1e it i s n o t nece ss ary to define the people as a community or household; th ey m ay form a co ll ec ti ve unit o nl y in that they engage in a particular activity. Moreover the activity ma y be tran s ito r y; it i s not necessary that regular activity defines the

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95 unit Progres sive co nt extL1a l izat i o n allows r ese archers to a ssume that actors are rational then follow the causes and effec t s of t heir ac ti o n s outward to different levels of the context in which the actor s are f oL1 nd To under s tand th e behavio r of peop le who depend on tropical resources we need information both abo t1t individua l dec i s ion making and the economic and political structures that imp ose const r ai nt s o n a nd provid e inc e ntives for individual action (Schrnink 1994 ) Nat i onal po li c i es in ma ny L a tin American countries, including Ecuador are often effe ct i ve l y p e r verse in ce nti ves to de s troy forest resources with little regard for intra-generational m u ch l ess inter gene rational, equity Serious competition for tropical forests come s fro m ca ttl e ranc hin g ( H ec ht and Cockburn, 1990 ), road building (Vickers, 1984 ) and rel ocation of the L1rban poor as agr i c ultur edependent colonists ( Uquillas 1984 ) as well a s th e po ss i b l e pr e!-)SL 1re of swi dde 1 1 agr i c ulture when populations of forest dwelling peopl e in c rea se. lt 1te r ge n erat i o n a l co n cer n i s more likely when social and economic variabl es e n coL1rage, ra th er t h a n und er min e, the choices necessary to make harvesting sustainabl e. By examinin g th e soc i oeco no mic m a tr ix as Schmink ( 1994 ) suggests, we may see, for example how g lob al dema nd for pe trol e um encouraged oil exploration in Ecuador. This explorati o n r e quir ed road bui l d i ng, and in turn encouraged colonization and deforestation from lo ggi11g and far1n i ng prac ti ces. In Ecuador, a s in other Latin American countries int e rnat io n al a11d national po l icies se t the parameter s for investment in transportation co l o ni zat i on, an d m ore recent l y, tourism. Within the context of these policies social groups int eract, compet itiv e l y o r cooperatively, to modify the context of

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96 decision makin g fo r ind i vidL1als and fam ili es w ho mu s t find a rea s onable way to make a living, given th e co n s tr aints i111posed Ltpo n th e m Our under s tanding of the promise of NTFPs as mean s of m aking a Ii v in g depe nd s o n b e tter under s tanding of socioeconomic, as well as ecolo g i ca l var i ables. What are current uses o f lriartea and what is the potential for expansion or diversification of mark e table u s es? Becau se I wa nt ed to L1 nd e r stand th e p o t e ntial for su s tainable harvesting of Iriartea, I was also int e r es t ed in the pote n t i al fo r ex pand e d markets for Iriartea products. If the palm can b e e x p ec t ed to recover tron1 for exa mple a 30 percent increase in harvesting intensity what i s t he potential m arket for th ese s t e m s? Moreover I wanted to deter1nine if the market for lri artea produc t s might b e di ve r s ified by using parts of the palm other than the stem. Clay ( 1 992) suggests severa l c r i t e ri a f or developing markets for non-timber forest product s, in c l t1d in g the fo ll owing it e m s that helped shape my research: 1 ) start with NTFPs already mark eted loca ll y, 2 ) dive r s if y t h e kind s of items made from each N'l'FP, 3) increase profit s to l oca l peop l e b y adding v a lu e lo c ally or bypassing market intermediaries, and 4) monitor e n v ir o n me11ta] effects of o n go in g e xtraction throt1gh certification of sustainable harv es tin g pra ct ices. Ce r tifica ti o n i s a c o11 s ervation technique tied to green marketing s trat eg i es p r imarily focL1 sec l o n b L 1 ye r s in the United State s and Europe and based on environm e nt aJ assessme n ts an d m o nitoring s y s tems s et up with collaboration between certifier s and fore s t prodt1ct ha r ves t e r s ( Clay 1992 ) To investigate current local markets for Iriar tea, to explore t h e djve r s it y o f it s u s e s, to probe the pos s ibilities for adding value and t o 11n der s tan d co n st r a int s o n it s harve s ting, I used ethnographic observation carri e d o ut free I i sti n g exe r c i ses, and developed a decision-tree model.

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97 Chapter 4 includ es a disct1 ss i o n of i ss t1es related to ce rtification of sustainable harvesting, based on intervi ews with l e ad e r s of non-gove rnmental organizations, foresters, and harvester s. What factors influence harvesting decisions: a) for household use and b) for market sales and what are the key changes underway that affect harvesting? Ethno g raph ic ob se r va tion and s tructured interview s were used to study households that participate in market s f o r pa lm st e m products or harvest palms for non-market purposes The objective of thi s res e ar c h was to understand the likelihood of harvesting, as influenced by pro ximity t o market s and th e ava ilability of transportation, and to identify the market forc es encot1r,1 g in g an e x panded harv es ting flow of Iriartea. I gathered infor mation about m arket s fr o n 1 more e as ily acces s ible actors, including carpenters, who purchase palm ste m s a s r aw materi a l s fo r fur nitur e, and s hopkeepers, who sell handicrafts made of Iri a rt ea to tou r i sts I aJ so talked with people who harvested the palm to learn when, why and where har ves ling oc c L1rs Thi s information was integrated into a decision tree model th a t show s und e r w ha t co nd i tions peo pl e are likely to harvest more or less Iriarte a. Deci s ion t ree mod e l s are ba se d o n ga th er in g information from decision maker s about the options they ch oose i n a g i ve n context. The model depends on collecting information from et hn ogr ap l1i c intervi e ws to for ,11 a se ries of questions that can be answered by e ith er ye s or no tnd th a t lead to a better under s tanding of the constraints on a decision as well a s t h e p oss i b il i ty o f predicti n g the c hoice that will be made by an individual, g iv e n the an s w e r s to th e se r i e s of questions. The technique has been used -----

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extensively in a g r ic ultu ral r e ea r c h to und e r s tand the adoption or rejection of particular techniques (Gladwin 1 983 a n d r e f ere n ces ther e in ) 98 To develop th e decision m o d el, I f ir s t interviewed Quichua, Shuar, and colonist families to learn w h a t qt 1 e...,tion I l1ou ld as k t o build tl1e decision tree. This info1rnation can help in und e r s tandin g l1ow p eople d ec i de t o har v e s t the palm for construction or other household u s e s and fo r 1 11arket-o ri e 1 1te d in co m eproducing activities. Although the decision-tree mod e l ca n b e an e l egan t tec hnique for col l ecting inforrnation about the factors involved in har ve ti11g, pr ob l ems with th e method arose for me because harvesting is often an intermitt e nt activi t y~ th e r e f o r e, th e r e ports of decision making were necessarily retrospective in m os t cases. Th i s i ~ a p r o bl e m that limited my ability to do other kinds of harvesting re s earch f o r examp l e, t irTie s tudi es ( Wollenberg 1994 ) When I did accompany harvesters, their r easo n for ha r ve r i ng w e r e e ith e r to clear agricultural plots or to supply a customer who had p l aced ,111 or d e r fo r o m e numb e r of s tems. The decision was then quite simple. With oth e r pr o d ucts. espec i a l ly 0 11 es with a more regular market or a seasonal market that could b e ob served, it i s ge ner a lly po ss ible to complete interviews closer to the time of harve s ting a nd a vo i d p r o bl e 1 ns of memory loss with retrospective accounts To und e r s tand th e dive r s it y of u ses for ft iartea I conducted free listing exercises to gather informati o n a b out pro d ucts tha t co uld be s old locally or potentially sold in expanded mark e t s a1 1 d L o L111de r s t and L h e p o t e nti a l for adding value locally based on traditional s kill s found among h a r ves t i 1 1g h o L1 se hold s The technique of free listing is sometime s u se d b y cog n iti, e c.1 11th ropo l ogi t t o t1nder s tand how people organize and think about element s of th e ir CL t llu r e ( B e r nar d 1 99 4 ) It involves asking each respondent to list

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99 all the item s in a given ca t egory, for ex ampl e, a ll the jobs men do and all the jobs women do. Difference are often fou1 1d amo11g gro t1p with regard to their ability to list items For example in a study o f Ltnive r it y \ludents in which participants were asked to name items included in se veral diffe r e nt c,1 l ego rie men could identify more hand tools than women; women more fabrics lha11 me11 (Gatewoo d 1984 ). Because I was interested in items for current or polenti ,1 1 ,na rk ets, rather than cognitive categories, after examining the complete li st of u es, I coll,1psed 0111e c ate go ri es in my analysis. I lumped the various kinds of construction ( hou ses. floor'-), tnd wa l I ); handicraft s ( flower holders fruit holders, key holder s and l a mp ba ses): and traclitional u es ( blowguns, arrows, and lances). The category labeled "hun tin g" in th e ana l ys i s in c ludes re s ponse s such as "the palm is good for hunting animal s at night b ccat1se th ey ea t it fruits then ," "a nimals eat the fruits," and "parrots u se th e palm for t l1eir n es t s." Sam pl e I was able to idenlif y, co nt act, and int erv iew s ix of the eight carpenters in Puyo who make and ell furnitur e or h ou el1o ld it e m s made of lriartea as well as the owner of a parquet floorin g fa cto r y th ere. F o r este r s. an c1g ronomist, and Peace Corps volunteers in the area also provid ed me with i11fo rm a ti o n I co ndt1ct e d interviews in half the 28 households from a Shuar co m1nunit y, identified by numbering the hou ses in the community, selecting the first hou se at r andom, Lhe11 c h oo ing eve r y other house for the s ample. I also interviewed s ix Quichua household 1 1ea r the J atun Sacha Re se arch Station. I conducted free listing exerci ses with ttn addit i ona l nine me s tizo re s ident s of Pastaza Province who worked in fore s tr y, ag r ono111y, o r ecotot1 ri s m Four harvester s generously allowed me to

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100 accompan y them t o the forest, to n1easure felled tree and to di sc u ss harve s ting the palm The carpenter I spoke with exp l ained the quantitie of ste m s they purcha se and the prices they expe ct to pay for th e n. ~ r o t1 nders tand th e market for handicraft s, I interviewed the owners and/or mana ge r s of tl1e fot1r s tores that s pecialize in tourist items in Puyo. I also interviewed m erc hant s in tot1rist stores in Te11a a nd three other communities along Rfo Napo in eastern Ecuador. R es ults and Discussion Ecuadorian Context Hi g hwa y cons trtt clion h t1 tt1r 1 1cd ea t e rn Ecuador into one of the most intense targets of co loni zation in th e Amazon basin and h as s timulated among the highest rates of deforestation in the world ( Peck 1 990). Ecuador i s often de sc ribed as one of the most biologically div e r se of th e e 11 da 11 gc r ed tropi c al hot s pots" (Dodson and Gentry 1990; Myers 199 2). Socia] and economic factor c ircumscribe the choices available to national policymaker s, to th e p eople depend on forest products for their livelihoods, and to those who mar ket fo r e t pr od t1ct~ Adclress i ng these critica l issues in Ecuador, a small country with a large forei gn cle bt, a rapidly inc r eas in g human population and beleaguered natural resour ces, can pr ovide l essons for other cou ntries threatened by similar ecological and economic problem s. Road buildin g and defo r estation are c lo se ly linked throughout Amazonia. Construction of r oads and th e tran ~E c L1adorian o il pipeline encouraged colonization which led t o defor esta ti on of larg e area o f lowland tropical forests. Agricultural policies intended to stimt1 l ate ex port s encot1raged th e replacement of forests with banana, coffee,

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101 cacao, and oil-palm plantations. Logging companies also require roads that provide entry points for additional settlers into forested areas and thereby increase deforestation pres sures from colonization (Rudel 1993; Pearce 1994). Vickers (1984) and Uquillas (1984) suggest that the difficulty of travel in Amazo nian Ecuador kept most of the peoples of the Oriente outside the hacienda system of peonage during the colonial period and began a pattern of governmental neglect toward the indigenous population of the area. Although current national policies claim to reverse the unofficial neglect policy, Vickers (1984, 11) warns ... that policies formulated in Quito often carry little force on the Amazon frontier, where Indian territories face ever-escalating invasions from colonists, lumbermen, oil companies, agribusiness concerns, land specula tors, and the military." During the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, trading activities increased with indigenous groups exchanging forest products and gold for salt, manufactured wares, and tragically, European diseases. In the 1930s and 1940s, a new incursion followed the discovery of oil in the region. Royal Dutch Shell built the first highways to access petroleum reserves. Moran (1988, 155) describes the attraction of the region: ''Following the discovery of oil in the Ecuadorian Amazon and the efforts of many countries after World War Il to develop their natural and human resources, governments began to build roads into the Amazon in an effort to gain access to the presumed riches of the mythical El Dorado." In the 1970s the Trans-Andean pipeline required the construction of an access road, and today, construction continues on new pipeline roads and improvement of roads linking

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102 oil boom towns in the Oriente. The highways open the Amazonian forests to colonists, land speculators, and agribusiness interests. National policies continued the tradition of neglecting indigenous people by granting land tenure to colonists for clearing land, but not granting tenure to Indian groups based on their hunting, fishing, and gathering forest products for food and household items. Faced with increasing colonization and the possibility that colonists might take control of traditional tribal territories, many indigenous groups formed organizations (e.g., Federaci6n Shuar, Federaci6n de Organizaciones Indigenas de Napo (FOlN), and Confederaci6n de Nacionalidades Indfgenas de la Amazonia Ecuatoriana (CONFENIAE)) starting in the 1960s to deal with the national government. The Instituto Ecuatoriano de Refor1na Agrica (IERAC), the governmental agency responsible for granting land titles, generally by dividing land into 50 ha parcels for each family, is not surprisingly often slow and subject to bureaucratic delays and frequently changing, sometimes contradicto1y, regulations. The Shuar Federation came to an agreement with IERAC to speed up the process of granting land tenure by awarding land titles to centros or communities, rather than to each nuclear family. The centro then gives plots (30 70 ha) to each family. The family retains all rights to the land (forever) except that sales must be approved by the community, to prevent selling off the land to colonists (Salazar 1981; Trujillo Le6n 1996) Recently, organizations of indigenous peoples have gained some control of protected areas, such as the Huaorani in Y asunf National Park (Trujillo Leon 1996). Still, the colonists and the indigenous people of the Oriente have different goals, aspirations, and

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resource acquisition and use patterns, as well as differential access to government subsidies, protection of property rights, and other services. 103 Government policies and incentives often have had adverse social and environ mental effects in Amazonian Ecuador (Hicks et al. 1990; Southgate et al. 1991 ). For example, Rudel (1993) describes the government policy of providing loans to colonists to encourage cattle ranching. In the absence of loans, colonists often worked for wages during part of the year and individually cleared, on average, 2 ha of forest annually. With the initiation of the loan program, small land holders receiving government-backed financing were able to increase the rate of clearing to 16 ha per year. The national policies that encourage forest clearing have led to ranching in areas that are, as Repetto (1988 ) suggests, "uneconomic" in that the costs of cattle production are under-estimated and the value of the forests for timber and especially non-timber products is neglected (Panayotou and Ashton 1992). Within disputed areas that border Peru, government interest in increasing colonization and the potentials for new gold mining activities in Zamora Province make new road building and concomitant deforestation almost inevitable Unstructured interviews about harvesting Iriartea consistently lead to the topic of change: changes in uses of the palm, changes in harvesting practices, and changes in the price of everything. New roads have opened access to new areas and the potentiaJ for new jobs, at least for men. Work is available, often intermittently, with oil or lumber companies. Foreign oil companies, primarily Oryx (USA), Arco (USA), City (Canada), and Maxus-YPF (Argentina), seem to speed up the rate of change by infusing cash and by demonstrating the latest foreign fads. In the newer industry, ecotourism, North Americans

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104 and Europeans provide job opportunities to increasing numbers of guides, hotel workers, and park guards as they also bring examples of fashions and interests from outside the area. Traditional gender roles may change when new employment opportunities arise. For example, when men find work away from the household, women assume the responsibility for farm tasks that cannot wait for the man's return. In other cases, younger children in the family take on more adult responsibilities in the context of these changing work roles Changing Context Throughout my interviews, I was struck by two themes that appeared again and again. Both colonists and indigenous people consistently told me that indigenous groups knew how to care for the natural resources of the forest, while colonists who came into the area knew nothing about the way things work and therefore destroyed the forest. The second theme that spanned Ecuadorians I met in every context was that they wanted to fly to the United States with me or asked me to buy cameras or fancy sneakers for them when I returned. The ubiquity of these topics led me to conclude that among the people I studied, there is a high value on the knowledge and ethics of indigenous people and traditional life styles while at the same time, a high value on consumer goods, modem technology, and participation in the global economy. This seems to be an example of simultaneously valuing "archaic conservation" and "modem consumption" (Alcorn 1991). Traditionally, forest resources met the needs of small populations engaged in low-impact harvesting while biodiversity was maintained. More recently, resources become natural capital to be turned into cash to purchase commodities, as pressures for change increase

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because of participation in a global economy. Decisions about harvesting natural resources are more and more often made under a new set of constraints. 105 For those who look for solutions to problems like deforestation by looking for sustainable harvesting practices, a similar contrast of values may arise. On one hand is a high value on the forest as it has been, with all its biodiversity intact; while on the other is the desire to recognize the rights of fellow humans to better health care, education, and even the big radios that only money can buy As Redford and Stearman (1993, p.252 ) remind us, "Indigenous people commonly want and have a right to health care, education and material conveniences that improve their quality of life. While traditional knowledge of resource use may provide for these necessities in ways that conservationists fmd admirable and that perhaps serve as models for other people, the fact is that traditional ways often do not meet growing needs." How Do Markets and Transportation Affect Harvesting and How Are Markets and the Availability of Transportation Changing? Pressures for change in Amazonian Ecuador seem unavoidable, but the consequences of change may be surprising for a given NTFP. For example, in the case of oil exploration in Ecuador, as new roads were built, access to market goods (like guns ) increased, and the need for traditional weapons decreased; therefore, we could predict a decline in harvesting lriartea for weapons. Not surprisingly, that prediction would be incorrect. New roads increased access by tourists and introduced a new use for traditional weapons as souvenirs. Patterns of change that reduce some uses but increases others are illustrated in Figure 3-1. Before recommending market alternatives or predicting the sustainability of expanded markets, a reminder of the rattan example might be

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ll T centralization into communities ll T distance to forest ll t substitution of market goods (cement, tin) ll personal use of Iriartea for housing ll traditional use of I riartea for weapons ll possible in harvesting New Road 106 ll T access by commercial interests ll T exposure to tourists ll l sales of Iriartea ( chicken houses, souvenirs, poles) ll possible t in harvesting Figure 3-1. The effects of road building on the harvesting rate of lriartea may vary depending on the balance of decrease in traditional uses and the increase in new uses.

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107 appropriate. Weinstock (1983) described rattan as a NTFP that seemed to fit well within the ecological and economic systems, but when these systems changed, sustainability was threatened. A better understanding of likely changes in the behavior of people who depend on tropical resources requires infor1nation both about individual decision making and the economic and political structures that constrain individual action. Using the socioeconomic matrix suggested by Schmink (1994) as a framework for analysis, we may see, for example, how international and national policies set the parameters for investment in transportation, colonization, and more recently, tourism. Figure 3-2 suggests elements to be considered in this socioeconomic matrix for Ecuador. While at first glance the connection between global markets and the potential for sustainable harvesting might seem tenuous, the context of a country heavily dependent on cash from exports frames much of its peoples' lives (Figure 3-3). World demand for petroleum has more consequences than contributions to the treasury of Ecuador. Oil spills have damaged the water supply in the Amazon, petroleum exploration has encouraged road building and subsequent colonization, and jobs with foreign oil companies have provided new income to local people, thereby changing their work roles, gender roles, and even the amount of beer they drink (Jochnick et al. 1994). Foreign investment links the Ecuadorian economy to foreign currency and increases the problems associated with a national currency losing value in relation to the US dollar. As sucres buy less, Ecuadorians scramble for additional cash to make up for inflation and devaluation.

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108 Global Context Markets International Aid Policies Demand for oil, coffee, cacao, timber Funding for roads and colonization Foreign investment in oil, mining, timber, Debts foster more dependence on export s roads National Context Markets Policy Trans oortation problems Road building Export orientation Incentives for ranching: Banco Nacional de Fomento subsidized credit National investment in pipeline; roads Colonization encoura ed Migration Land Tenure Frontier ex Jansion Chan ~in Dolicies; comolex rules Border conflicts History of required deforestation Regional/Local Context r: Settlement Patterns Interest Groups Population pressure along roads; new Conflicts over land between oil roads to disputed border com :>anies and indigenous oeople Increasing distance to forest resources Conflicts between miners, oil companie s and ecotourism interests Household/Community Context Gender Relations Family/Community Men work off-farm (petroleum obs) Land tenure rules chan: ~e farmin 2; More farm work for women & children Off-farm exposure to more oods Figure 3-2. Elements of the socioeconomic matrix in Amazonian Ecuador based on Schmink (1994). =

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109 Global Context Markets International Aid Policies Demand for exports undermines the Funding encourages deforestation and value of forests reduces the potential for NTFPs Foreign investment encourages Debts create more need for dollars and dependence on plantation crops and oil foster dependence on exports National Context Markets Policy Trans port difficulties limit access Roads chan, ;e settlement patterns Export orientation limits investor interest Cattle ranching changes forest succession in minor forest products patterns NTFPs receive little government sul-'l-'ort Distance to forest resources increases Migration La.nd Tenure Colonists use few traditional materials Settlers who clear land may not know Know led e base for harvestin chan es potential value of s arin palms eg1ona oca on ex R 1/L IC t t Settlement Patterns Interest Grou os As people settle along roads, distance to Conflicts can limit access to forest harvestable palms may grow resources and discoura;e harvesting Access to more distance markets can Ecotourists who buy traditional wares encourage use of modem materials can encourage harvesting H h ld/C ouse o ommun1~y on ex Gender Relations F amity/Community Men working away from home have less Women are unlikely to assume this task; time for harvesting Iriartea knowledge may be lost; modem goods are increasin l_y admired Figure 3-3. Ways in which of the socioeconomic matrix in Amazonian Ecuador can affect the potential for harvesting Iriartea. "-'

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110 Income, primarily from oil exports, has allowed the Ecuadorian government to extend electrical power throughout much of the country. Soon after the arrival of lights, televisions appear among the more affluent. With electricity, change occurs for women because sewing machines often follow, although washing clothes in streams or rivers usually continues. Families in communities without electricity talk eagerly about its arrival and how they will come up with the equivalent of $60 to pay for the connection from the road to their house. Paying for things has become more difficult with inflation (e.g., the price of a bus ride doubled from 1995 to 1996) and with the loss of value of Ecuadorian sucres in relation to US dollars. Using the socioeconomic matrix to analyze Iriartea harvesting in context can be helpful for understanding changes in traditional uses of the palm (Figures 3 2 and 3-3 ) In the traditional household, when construction materials were needed for a new house or for weapons, men harvested / riartea from nearby forests. The local context changes when roads are built Roads bring access to jobs for cash ( especially in petroleum exploration) and materials like cement and tin become options for construction, both because transportation by road makes them readily available and because people now have cash with which to buy the highly valued modem materials. Harvesting may decline and knowledge of how to use the palm can be lost New settlers, more centralized communities, and increased exposure to good from other areas combine with increasing distance to the forest resource to decrease harvesting of Iriartea. Other outsiders have access to the community, and community members may more easily participate in distant

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1 1 1 markets. With the road also comes the option for more education because teachers can reach the community; education reinforces trends toward modernization. The new settlers and indigenous peoples sometimes vie for control of land. The government responds to pressures from both groups by changing laws about land tenure, but often these laws remain unclear to new settlers as well as to indigenous people. Changing laws contribute to a sense of instability in that laws seen to change once or twice could easily change again. Land clearing is seen as the key to holding land; therefore, more deforestation results. With less incentive for sparing palms, because the claim to their future value is in question, palm populations near roads are extirpated. Oil, mining, and plantation interests engage in deforestation and encourage road building. They are sources of jobs for cash, and thereby increase the demand for and ability to obtain modem materials. National policies that encourage oil exploration, road building, and colonization speed up these processes. Border conflicts with neighboring Peru, over an area containing gold reserves, have led the government to encourage colonization in remote areas by starting new roads to reach the area. At the global or international level, demand for petroleum and plantation crops encourages foreign investment to support these products. Although there is some development of new markets for tropical house plants and cut flowers, more often, international demand for more profitable products structures national priorities. Shrimp sales become more important than coastal mangroves; forest conservation and homelands for indigenous people become secondary to petroleum exploration. Minor forest products, like Iriartea handicrafts and furniture, generate too little income for national

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112 elites to be interested in developing necessary infrastructure to support increased harvesting. Roads and colonization, encouraged at the national level increase centralization of settlement along roads and increase distance to forest resources. Clearing land for settlement can affect the palm's population structure by removing juveniles. What Are Current Uses and What Is the Potential for Expansion or Diversification of Marketable Uses? As mentioned earlier, I chose methods used in this research both to answer my research questions and to understand potential markets for Iriartea products (Clay 1992). To explore potential markets, this study began with NTFPs made from lriartea already marketed locally, explored current uses that might be used to diversify the market, and examined the possibility of increasing profits by adding value locally or bypassing market intertnediaries The pressures for change within the system may be as important to understand as is the potential of individual products. Current Uses I asked 33 people to tell me how Iriartea could be used and ultimately enumerated 23 different traditional and modem uses. The number of responses per person ranged from Oto 9, with a mean of 4 .6. Table 3-1 shows all reported uses with frequency of listing and percent of respondents who listed each use. Although no statistically significant differences in the list of uses by gender, age, or ethnicity were found using a chi-squared test, some trends in the responses might indicate differences in use or knowledge of uses that could be detected with laiger sample sizes (Table 3-2 shows the category of the first response by gender and ethnicity using

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Table 3-1. Frequency with which uses of Iriartea were reported and percent of respondents (n=33) listing each use. Uses Frequency % listing of listin this use oalm heart 21 63.6 handicrafts 11 33.3 houses 10 30.3 construction 10 30.3 furniture 10 30.3 chicken houses 8 24.2 fences 7 21.2 floors 7 21.2 blow,,ins 7 21.2 posts 6 18.2 hunting 6 18.2 lances 5 15.2 fruits 5 15.2 fuewood 4 12.1 food wrain 3 9.1 preservation (food, beer) 3 9.1 everythin 3 9.1 household uses 2 6.1 ~rubs ., 2 6.1 oarquet 1 3.0 banana Drops 1 3.0 tomato cages 1 3.0 113

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114 Table 3-2. Percent of first use of Iriartea products listed by gender and ethnic group Use Total male female Shuar Quichua Colonist n 23 16 8 9 food 34.4 56.3 12.5 33.3 construction 30.3 39.1 10.0 18.8 75.0 11.1 wea ons 15.2 17.4 10.0 12.5 12.5 22.2 other 15.1 13.0 20.0 12.5 00.0 33.3 collapsed categories). Women reported comestibles, mainly palm heart, as the first item 60% of the time. Men reported house construction first almost 40% of the time; food was the second most common use reported by men. If we consider ethnic group, we find that 56% of Shuar respondents listed palm heart as the first use, while only 13% of Quichua mention this use first. Effects of ethnicity and gender may be linked because most of the women in the study were also Shuar. Current Products and Possible Diversification The free lists suggest that traditional uses of this palm have found entry into the market for tourist souvenirs. Former weapons, such as blowguns, lances, and bows and arrows, are sold (full size or in miniature) in hotels and shops in towns through which ecotourists often pass. Uses in agriculture, such as banana props, tomato cages, and wood strips, might be of interest to farmers outside of Ecuador in wet locations when the prices of other materials is high, because Iriartea wood is resistant to rot and to terrnites. These products can be lighter in weight than some other products made from Iriartea and would, therefore, avoid high transportation costs associated with furniture and

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115 construction materials. Although parquet flooring was listed infrequently, many people knew about the parquet factory when asked specifically about it. Once again, the ability to use small, thin pieces of the stem makes transportation of parquet less expensive and potentially more readily available to markets outside the area of harvesting. Surprisingly, although eating palm hearts had been mentioned as a use for Iriartea, harvesters I accompanied never took palm hearts back to their families nor ate them in the field, except on the occasions when I asked if it were possible to eat the palm heart. It was never clear whether people once ate the palm heart, but tastes had changed, or if other palms were preferred for their palm heart, but people lumped together the species I tried to keep separate. Some Quichua interviewees claimed that the heart of this palm was too bitter to eat. Most of the reports of eating palm heart came from the Shuar community, but an Ecuadorian anthropologist told me the Shuar routinely cut juvenile Iriartea as they walked through the forest wielding machetes (E. Salazar, pers. comm. ) ; they did not stop to harvest the palm heart and eat it or carry it home. On the coast of Ecuador, factories do produce canned palm hearts, but the species commonly used is Euterpe chaunostachys (Pedersen and Balslev 1990). Because I was interested in the amount of waste left behind when a palm is harvested, I was especially interested in whether any uses could be found for the unlignified center fibers. Only one was ever listed: the edible larvae of beetles live in the soft center of the palm until they are large enough to become food for humans. When I asked about uses for the usually discarded center, I was told, almost without exception that the centers were trash and were thrown away. The exceptions included the

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116 suggestion that the centers might make brooms ( other palms are used for this purpose now), but no one said they had actually used them for that purpose. Interviews provided information about major changes in the uses of Iriartea in recent years. In the past (antiquamente), the palm was used for "everything." The dividing line between past uses and current uses seems to be the completion of the road from Puyo to Macas and the relatively easy transportation by bus the road allows. Before the road was built, people lived in the monte (forests further up in the hills) where farms (fincas) are located. With the road, the community consolidated to take advantage of transportation by which teachers, health workers, products from Puyo's markets and beyond (for example, Coca-Cola) could arrive. Children could live at home and get an education; parents had to walk to their fields each day. When people lived on thefincas, they built houses made with Iriartea, but the stems of this species are very heavy (Figure 3-4 ). In the village other materials are available: one family has an electric saw and has set up a "sawmill" to produce boards for construction. A worker with a chain saw can cut enough trees from a family's.finca in one day (for a cost of $12 US for labor and the chain saw) to build a house, from which the village saw owner can produce smooth, flat boards. Concrete is available by bus, as is tin for roofs. Now, modem houses with sawn boards, concrete pilings, and metal roofs dominate the village architecture. Without the new road, it is unlikely that these changes could have occurred. New uses for Iriartea have been found within the changing context of modernization in Ecuador. The furniture industry provides one example; industrial construction is another. The use of Iriartea stems as poles or flooring for chicken houses

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117 Figure 3-4. Traditional Shuar house with walls and posts made from Iriartea stems.

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118 and for power line poles as electricity is extended throughout the country are other examples. Another area in which Iriartea stems have found a new niche is in the ecotourism market. Handicrafts made by artisans in Puyo or by indigenous people throughout the Oriente are sought after by tourists. Restaurants and bars use Iriartea to create a faux primitive ambiance by designing structures that mimic traditional homes with floors and posts of lriartea under thatched roofs. Visitors to indigenous communities often pay well for guides who can explain the lore of plant uses, often focusing on medicinal plants, but also including uses of palms growing in the area. Knowledge of traditional life has become a marketable commodity as tourists arrive along the roads into the Oriente. Although there are new uses for Iriartea, markets for these goods are still sporadic and infor1nal to a large extent. Links to markets are often based on personal relationships between harvesters and carpenters or artisans and shopkeepers. Not everyone who has access to Iriartea stems and the ability to harvest them does so, primarily because the market for stems is limited by the demand for products made from the palm. Moreover, I spoke with one carpenter who had made furniture from Iriartea in the past, but stopped because other woods were easier to use and sales were slow. Clearly, if demand increased, this carpenter has the capacity to re-enter the market and exploit Iriartea again. Other than demand, there are no traditional limits on the amount of harvesting that can occur, and government regulations that require permission to sell timber (including a requirement for replanting) have not prevented extirpation in some areas of Ecuador. Presumably, if demand increased and prices rose substantially, more people would begin

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119 to harvest. To understand the possible constraints on harvesting, I constructed a decision-tree model based on ethnographic observation. The results of this research are discussed in the following section. What Factors Influence Harvesting Decisions? Decision-tree models are expected to identify the constraints on individual decision making; given sufficient ethnographic infonnation, they may clarify the nor1ns and values that limit the range of individual decisions or that require decision making at the household or community (rather than individual) level. For example, if the harvesting of a resource is based on individual decisions in an open access resource system, the likelihood of sustainable development based on that resource may be quite different than if groups decide on the use of a restricted resource. Knowing the "rules of the game" is essential in predicting pressures for over-harvesting and in designing projects to encourage sustainable harvesting. Knowing the nor1ns for decision making is crucial when a project includes elements such as education, extension programs, or marketing advice. Decision rules may be generalizable beyond the study area, but the mode] must be tested to determine how well it predicts decisions in a different location (Gladwin 1983). In this study, the model was tested in only one community. Initial interviews suggested that there were really two domains in which the decision to harvest was made. People either had a personal or household need that could be met by harvesting Iriartea or they could harvest Iriartea to earn cash. Structured inter views with harvesters and users of palm stems revealed that personal use depends on distance of the household from stands of Iriartea and that harvesting for sale depends on

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120 demand, access to transportation, prices, and distance from stands of Iriartea. l developed and tested the model in an indigenous community because the residents there could reasonably make either of the decisions. In contrast, the carpenters I spoke with did not harvest the trees themselves; they purchased stems cut into 2 m lengths, paying $1 to $3 (1996 US dollars). Harvesters I accompanied were cutting stems for clients who had ordered stems needed for a construction project. One harvester explained to me that he was cutting the palm from his f amity's land now, but in a few years, they wanted to tum it into a nature preserve, restore all the trees, and charge tourists to visit. Other harvesters were clearing land for agricultural purposes and cut individuals that were too small to be useful commercially; the decision was not particularly to harvest the palm, but to remove whatever was "in the way" and easily removed. Larger adult palms were often left behind to provide a little shade and because the farmer knew no one who would buy the stems. The hard work of felling also discouraged clearing adult palms in which stems are thicker and harder (see Chapter 2). Infor1nation from these harvesters helped me frame the questions to begin developing the decision model. I identified conditions under which current harvesters increase their harvesting efforts or current non-harvesters are likely to begin harvesting. For example, the sa1es of lriartea stems to the major chicken purveyor (Mjster Pollo) brought new actors into the market. In communities along paved roads where the species is abundant, Mister Pollo offered to pay $10 (US) a piece 3 for 10 m Iriartea stems. More importantly, perhaps, the 3 Workers are often paid$ 5 $7 for a day's labor.

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121 company sent a truck to pick up the stems from the harvesters, eliminating the problem of road transport to markets. The success of a few carpenters in Puyo led other carpenters who already had the necessary equipment to begin making items from Iriartea. The decision model developed from ethnographic interviews was used to test the hypotheses that personal use depends on distance of the household from Iriartea in the forest and that harvesting for sale depends on access to transportation as well as prices and distance from Iriartea in the forest (Figures 3-5 and 3-6). In a test with 7 of the 28 families in Pritirishca, decisions were predicted correctly 86% of the time. Decision-trees that predict correctly in over 80% of cases are considered to be reliable indicators of the decision process (Gladwin 1989). Distance to the forest resource can be an important element in the cycle of expansion, stagnation, and decline in NTFP markets (Homma 1992). Expansion occurs when extraction affects only a small portion of the product's supply, the resource seems limitless at the local level, and demand grows as the market increases. Stagnation follows when demand roughly equals supply at a level close to the maximum for harvesting, but the resource becomes harder to extract in easy-to-reach places. Increasing costs of harvesting to meet the demand that has developed can lead to extraction at rates that exceed the potential for regeneration, or to attempts at domestication and substitution of synthetic replacements. Decline of the market ultimately concludes the cycle. When roads are built, access from forest to market is increased, while new areas of forest (and the marketable resources within them) are opened for extraction. Increasing demand can be met by harvesting newly settled areas (the boom) until forested

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Do you need to build a house, fence, or other wooden structure? NO Don't Harvest NO Don't Harvest (4 cases) YES Do you need less than 1/2 hour to find lriartea? NO YES Do you have a chain saw or strong axe? YES Don't Harvest Harvest (2 cases) 122 Figure 3-5. Decision-tree model for personal use of Iriartea Seven cases included in the model resulted in three households that reported harvesting, two households that did not harvest and one case that did not fit the model.

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Do you know someone who will buy Iriartea stems at a price worth your time? NO Don't Harvest (3 cases) NO Don't Harvest (2 cases) YES Do you have transportation or will buyer pick up stems? YES Do you need less than an hour to :find lrlartea? NO YES Don't Do you have a chain saw Harvest or strong axe? NO YES Don't Harvest Harvest ( 1 case) 123 Figure 3-6. Decision-tree model for market sales of Iriart ea Seven cases included in the model resulted in one household that reported harvesting, five households that did not harvest, and one case that did not fit the model.

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124 areas near the new road are depleted (the bust). In addition to the potential for over harvesting when roads open new areas off orest to extraction and market sales, changes in the forest landscape resulting from new settlement can deplete a forest resource when forests are cut for crops or pasture. If the forest is gone, demand for forest products cannot be met Substitutes or domesticated plantation products replace the supply of forest products. What Is the Potential for Expansion and Diversification and How Can Value Be Added Locally? Products sold to tourists include traditional weapons and new items, such as necklaces from seeds and carved models of fish, turtles, and snakes from Iriartea stems. As ecotourism increases, tourists more often visit indigenous communities where these souvenirs might be sold, avoiding the intermediaries who now transport these craft items for sales in larger towns and cities. If community members depend on more and more visitors to earn cash, their lives may change in unexpected ways. An alternative is po ss ible if interest in these items could be encouraged outside the country, perhaps through an agreement between an international conservation organization or a retailer from the United States or Europe. Furniture made from Iriartea requires both skills and equipment that are not now available in small indigenous communities. Carpenters are concentrated in towns where sales are more likely. Adding value locally in small communities would require investments in equipment and training, while probably increasing transportation costs. Now, stems cut in 2 m lengths are transported by the carpenters or by their agents by throwing the stems in the back of a truck. Transporting furniture is a more delicate

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125 operation with more damage likely when small pieces are glued or pegged together than when whole stems are transported. The cost of transportation could actually reduce the profits received locally, if communities distant from population centers began making furniture. Direct transportation links to affluent retailers outside the country could reduce transportation problems, but this solution seems unlikely. In some cases, market inter1nediaries can serve a valuable function and reduce the risk for other actors in a market (Padoch 1992). When this is true, the continued existence of interrnediaries might assure greater profits to local communities than their elimination. Agents who buy whole stems for carpenters or for poultry fartns allow harvesters to avoid transportation costs. If eliminating intermediaries is a goal, then providing reliable, inexpensive transportation must be part of the means to that goal. Because of the low prices received for them, the p1ice of transportation for Iriartea stems is currently prohibitive for indigenous people I interviewed. How Does Traditional Management Affect Harvesting? I also investigated traditional management practices with regard to this palm to understand its role in the agricultural diversificatio11 that Alcorn ( 1990) considers the "self-insurance" of indigenous management. Diversification works as insurance in that if one crop fails or the price of one crop is lower than expected, other crops can help reduce financial losses. Another way of thinking about diversification is that the approach is a hedging technique, analogous to investing in a mutual fund, for spreading the risk among the natural resource assets in an agricultural and forestry-based portfolio. Leaving this palm standing when a pasture is cleared means a resource is saved for future use in

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126 construction or for sale when cash is needed to offset crop failures. Joyal (1996) refers to this management practice as "sparing." Iriartea is sometimes spared because the stems have potential future cash value, provide limited shade without taking up much space do not reduce forage grass production (Nair 1983), attract game animals, and because sparing them spare s the farmer the hard work of cutting the s tem of this palm Although Pedersen and Balslev ( 1992) found no evidence of management with regard to this palm ( although they equated management only with active cultivation ), sparing adults in pastures that might become secondary fores ts after the pastures are abandoned might be considered management by "benign neglect." As reported in the previous chapter, populations of Iriart e a can regenerate as secondary forests replace pastures if sufficient adults remain to provide seeds, and this might be an example of the effects of indigenou s management on forest structure (Thrupp 1989). Iriartea also fit s within the time constraints of agricultural households by requiring an investment of labor only when cash i s needed. This N'I'F'P grows without cultivation while farmers are busy with crops, but is available when they have time, much like farmers who tap rubber seasonally in a process of "internlittent exploitation" (Dove 1993b) or workers who seasonally shift their harvesting activities from chicle to allspice to xate in Guatemala (Nations 1992) Conclusions: What are the Implications of These Findings for Potential Ecological and Economic Sustainability of lriartea Harvesting? In thinking about how infor1r1ation from one perspective inforrns the other, we might consider what an economist might learn from an ecological model and what the ecologist learn s from inve s tigation of economic factors. For an ecologist the economic

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127 news might be heartening, at least at first. Traditional uses are limited (people don't need a new house every year) and trends toward modernization make substitute construction materials, like concrete and sawn boards, appeal to some people who once lived in traditional houses. The constraints of expensive transportation and the need for special processing equipment (because Iriartea stems are heavy and very hard) make a large increase in harvesting seem unlikely-unless the prices paid become very high or demand increases from outside the local area. Yet the ecologist might well think the comforting news could be short-lived in a region where improved roads and population pressures can bring new colonists and stimulate more conversion of forests to pastures. The economist might take the information that the resource can be harvested within the bounds of natural replacement rates as good news for sustainability. On the other hand, a resource that can take 100 or more years to reach marketable height (Chapter 2) could become vulnerable to over-harvesting if demand increases, for example, when new uses arise, such as for chicken houses or electric power poles, when modernization occurs in remote areas of the country. Biological constraints on the growth of new seedlings make the species an unlikely first step in reforestation efforts in abandoned pastures, and little is known about the potential for plantations of this species as an alternative to forest extraction. When the two perspectives come together in the policy arena, the issue of intergenerational equity might lead to a consideration of safe minimum standards for harvesting (Toman 1993). These standards could define a threshold for unacceptable ecological damage--a point at which damage is potentially irreversible If a society

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128 decides that some obligations to the future are sufficient to require that it fore go the benefits of activities that could potentially cause irreversible damage to an ecosystem or a permanent loss of a resource, then economjc and ecological models can clarify the conditions under which risk becomes too great. For Iriartea, traditional uses and traditional harvesting are very likely at the "reversible" end of the risk continuum. Even some of the effects of converting forest land to pastures can be reversed if pastures are abandoned and consequent secondary forests are managed for Iriartea regeneration. New uses for the species, improved transportation, and increased colonization with concomitant land clearing could remove Iriartea from the landscape of the future. In fact some regions in Ecuador have seen Iriartea virtually disappear in one human generation: for1ner residents of Santo Domingo de los Colorados told me they feared lriartea would be gone from eastern Ecuador within 10 years, just as they had seen it disappear, as the forest disappeared into pastureland in western Ecuador. Harvesting Iriartea for agricultural uses in northwestern Ecuador, where stems are used for banana props as well as for furniture-making in Guayaquil, is possibly also a factor in fears of extirpation (Pedersen and Balslev 1990). Should future generations be guaranteed access to a house with a floor made of Iriartea or is a concrete floor an acceptable substitute if future generations have sufficient income to purchase non-forest construction products? Should future generations be entitled to a forest with agoutis, monkeys, bats, tapirs, and other animals that depend on the fruits of Iriartea for at least some of their food? Or will these animals be long gone because of hunting pressures before the loss of lriartea threatens them? Perhaps the

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129 standard for sustainable harvesting might well be making sure enough forest remains to leave intact processes, the importance of which are not yet understood. In the meantime, the people of Ecuador might want to decide that even if ecosystems are not lost when this particular palm is over-harvested, clearing land increases the level of risk to the forest heritage of the country's future generations. It is up to them to draw the line when risk becomes unacceptable. Ecological and economic information can help provide a clearer picture of the risk and help them determine safety standards.

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CHAPTER 4 CONSERVATION AND MARKETING Expanded sales of non-timber forest products could increase the value of forests and consequently both help conservation efforts and enhance the well-being of forest dwellers. The history of non-timber forest products exploitation in many tropical areas, however, suggests that increased local benefits do not automatically result from expanded markets. Resource depletion and waste, expropriation of resource use rights by powerful urban dwellers, ruthless exploitation of tribal minorities, and shortlived "booms" followed by devastating "busts" have been the more common results (Padoch 1988). If we wish to avoid these errors of the past, we need to know how systems of marketing non-timber forest products work and just where their inefficiencies, inequities, and injustices lie (Padoch 1992, 43). Introduction The substantial trade in non-timber forest products (NTFPs) from the tropics suggests that these forests can generate cash without being destroyed in the process. If this is true, the questions "Who benefits?" and "Who pays?" quickly follow. Because environmental damages, such as biodiversity loss, are not often reflected in market prices, markets for goods made from forest products are unlikely to reflect the costs to ecological systems of NTFP extraction. Although biodiversity cannot depend on the invisible hand of the market to protect its interests, ecology and economics are linked in the market for forest products: over-exploitation of a species can be encouraged by market forces, and conversely, market incentives can be used to encourage careful management of forest products. Even when both ecology and economics are considered, the question remains 130

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131 to be answered of how to avoid a scenario in which those with sufficient wealth to exploit resources most rapidly gain the benefit of revenues while society at a global scale pays the cost of ecological losses and poor people near the forest pay the costs at the local level when forest resources are exhausted. Iriartea deltoidea in Ecuador Iriartea is among the most common palms in Amazonian and coastal Ecuador (Balslev et al. 1987). Its current uses include construction, furniture, marimbas, banana tree props, handicrafts, blowguns, and harpoons (Kahn and de Granville 1993) Iriartea was chosen for study both because of its current and potential economic usefulness and its abundance in lowland Ecuador. Although abundant now, the palm's usefulness may eventually pose a threat to this resource because it is killed when harvested (Pinard 1993). Yet, as with other NTFPs, increased trade in products made from palm stems may provide a useful economic alternative to the people of Ecuador, as their population increases, if sustainable harvesting levels can be determined and utilized. In areas where Iriartea is most abundant, it seems likely that over-exploitation could have serious consequences for ecosystem function, especially by increasing the likelihood of soil loss from erosion after the tree is cut ( on slopes, soil and leaf litter accumulate on the uphill side of the root cone; pers. obs.). Although flat terrain is usually preferred for agriculture and pastures, loss of this palm from level areas could affect water and nutrient cycling and tip the balance toward future grassland, rather than a return to forest, after pastures are abandoned. Management practices that discourage monocultures and encourage preservation of at least minimal diversity of agricultural land

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can encourage ecosystem resilience (Ewel 1986; Folke et al. 1996; Soule and Piper 1992). 132 This chapter examines the potential for market-based incentives for conservation of Iriartea through certification of management practices and is based on the premise that decisions about land use and harvesting are based on both socioeconomic and ecological constraints (e.g., Pickett et al 1994). Plans for market-based incentives designed to encourage good management of N'I'FPs and to promote sustainable harvesting might include recommendations for forestry, agriculture, and extension education as well as market incentives that allow financial benefits to flow to local people at the periphery of the economy, rather than urban corporation owners at its core. Before focusing on lriartea, I will review the problematic cycles of booms and busts found in the history of manyNTFPs. Boom and Bust Cycles Cycles of economic growth and decline have characterized markets for many forest products, especially in the tropics. Rubber, vegetable ivory, jute, Panama hats, and rosewood among others, have a history of dramatic changes in demand and prices. This pattern has been called "boom and bust cycles" by many authors (e.g. Coomes 1995; Goulding et al. 1996) Another view of the process describes the cycle as expansion, stagnation, and decline (Homma 1992). Expansion occurs when extraction affects only a small portion of the product's supply, the resource seems limitless at the local level, and demand grows as knowledge about the product spreads. Stagnation follows when demand roughly equals supply at a level close to the maximum for harvesting, but the

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133 resource becomes less abundant in easy-to-reach places. Increasing costs of harvesting to meet the demand that has developed can lead to extraction at rates that exceed the potential for regeneration or to attempts at domestication and substitution of synthetic replacements. Decline of the market ultimately concludes the cycle. Given this history of market cycles among forest products, for example the explosion and crash of rubber prices in Amazonia, many people would reasonably distrust the likelihood of sustainability, especially when the resource is killed when harvested and regeneration rates are low (Coomes 1995) or when regeneration rates are slower than harvesting rates whether or not the harvested individual is killed (Homma 1992). Boom and bust cycles are amplified in the Amazon basin when they coincide with frontier expansion (Homma 1992). When roads are built, access from forest to market is improved, while new areas of forest (and the marketable resources within them) are opened for extraction. Increasing demand can be met by harvesting newly settled areas (the boom) until forested areas near the new road are depleted (the bust). Boom and bust cycles can also describe the credit cycle in which banks offer short-tercn credit-oriented incentives for cattle ranching and cash crop agriculture (especially exportable crops) until monetary crises or policy changes lead to increasing interest rates and potential bankruptcy of borrowers. This credit-based expansion is in marked contrast to traditional forest extraction in regards to its potential for unsustainable practices, although over harvesting might occur in either system. In addition to the potential for over-harvesting when roads open new areas of forest to extraction, changes in the forest landscape resulting from new settlement can

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134 deplete a forest resource when forests are cut for crops or pasture. If the forest is gone demand for forest products cannot be met. Substitutes or domesticated plantation products replace the supply of forest products. Changes in land use coupled with a dynamic economic environment reinforce the boom and bust cycle (Coomes 1995). The deforestation that results from changing land use after colonization reflects individual choices of settlers that may seem irrational in the aggregate, but are quite rational on an individual level (Katzman and Cale 1990; Schmink 1987). Especially when cash is available to support forest clearing for farming and cattle ranching or from timber sales, the most rational path to a better life may be unsustainable (Browder 1992; Hecht 1992; 1993) In order for sustainable use of forest products to compete in the individual decision-making arena, it must become economically rational as well as ecologically prudent. This possibility is more likely when short-terrn goals of increased income coincide with long-term goals of forest preservation (Vayda 1993). Many efforts to calculate the potential value of intact forests have been carried out already (Godoy et al. 1993 and studies reviewed therein), and some suggest that standing forests can provide greater income from NTFPs than can be generated by ranching or farming that require forest clearing. While this potential exists, the effects of short-ter1n credit, tax relief, or subsidized loans to encourage cattle ranching (e.g., Goodland 1992; Hecht 1993; Pompermeyer 1984); of migration and colonization (e.g., Davis 1988; Dominguez 1984; Moran 1988); or of elevated demand that creates high prices, as for rattan in Indonesia (e.g., Peluso 1992), cannot be ignored, although they may be quite difficult to include in calculations of per hectare forest values

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135 Certification of Forest Management For those interested in the potential of NTFPs to provide income and to encourage forest conservation, the following strategies have been proposed to secure markets for non-timber forest products: 1) start with NTFPs already marketed locally, 2) diversify the kinds of items made from each NTFP, 3) increase profits to local people by adding value locally or by bypassing market interrnediaries and by insuring them a share of profits from the final sale and 4) monitor environmental effects of ongoing extraction through certification of sustainable harvesting practices (Clay 1992). In fact, according to Clay, "Certification is key" (1992, 308). Certification is a conservation technique tied to green market strategies primarily focused on buyers in the United States and Europe and based on environmental assessments and monitoring systems set up with collaboration between buyers and sellers of forest products. Although the initial focus was on tropical timber certification, the idea has expanded to include temperate timber and non-timber forest products (Viana et al. 1996). The process involves a voluntary collaboration between owners of forest products and an independent third-party certifier who is able to deter1nine if the management of the forest follows guidelines for good forest management. Products may also be fallowed along a "chain of custody" to insure that the certifiable items extracted from the forest are in fact the only items receiving the identifying label (Elliott and Donovan 1996) Certification is a fairly recent development in attempts to link market incentives with forest conservation. The SmartWood program certified an Indonesian forest in 1990; then in 1993 the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) was founded and began to

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136 develop standards for forest management and to accredit certifiers (Scrase 1995). While generally accepted management guidelines are important, some have argued that more site specific conditions should be included to avoid the unintended consequences of "legislated silviculture" (Putz 1996, 168; Wood 1996). The process of developing flexible guidelines, with adequate attention to local forest ecology and socioeconomic factors, requires time and depends on adequate research (Putz and Viana 1996; Godoy et al. 1993). Yet, for all this effort to be worthwhile, evidence that certification makes a difference in the market place is essential. Elements of certification such as independent audits carried out by third parties, rather than government officials or business owners, lend credibility to the process (Armson 1996; Hughes 1996). The goal is to allow consumers to discriminate between otherwise identical products on the basis of a label certifying the product was harvested using good management practices (Kiker and Putz 1997). Having independent auditors is in large measure responsible for insuring consumer confidence that products carrying a certified label are indeed from well-managed forests (Vlosky and Ozanne 1997). Credibility of the process also depends on the confidence of consumers that certification actually reflects monitoring of processes that are important for forest survival; this confidence is increased when biologists are actively engaged in certification (Putz 1996; Putz and Viana 1996). An essential market element in certification is either consumers' ability to recognize certified products and buy them preferentially or their willingness to pay extra, the "green" premium, for those products (Kiker and Putz 1997; Merry and Carter 1997).

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Few studies address consumer behavior with regard to certification, but based on the research that has been done, there are questions about consumers' willingness to pay a premium for products from well managed forests. 137 One survey of merchants found that while there was little difference in prices paid for certified products, the market for these products expanded to allow these merchants to attract a larger share of environmentally conscious consumers (Merry and Carter 1997). In another study of corporate buyers of forest products, including architects, building contractors and home improvement retail stores, few respondents thought their customers would pay a green premium for certified products (Vlosky and Ozanne 1997) In a study of consumers in the US, researchers found that 37% of consumers were unwilling to pay a premium for any kind of certified forest product; whereas, one group (representing over 16 million consumers) were willing to pay. This group consisted of respondents who were described most often as female, politically liberal, and members of both the Democratic Party and at least one environmental organization (Ozanne and Vlosky 1997). While these results are not overwhelmingly encouraging that a green premium will help pay the costs of better forest management or that increased profits will reach local people and encourage forest extraction rather than ranching, there is support that certification has potential as a market-based incentive for conservation through purchasing preferences of green consumers.

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138 Methods Ethnographic observation and structured interviews were used to study house holds that participate in markets for palm stem products or harvest palms for market and non-market putposes The focus of this research was to understand the likelihood of harvesting and the market forces encouraging an expanded harvesting flow of Iriartea I gathered infor1nation about markets from more easily accessible actors, such as catpenters who purchase palm stems as raw materials for furniture and shopkeepers who sell handi crafts made of Iriarte a to tourists. To better understand the potential market for handicrafts, I recorded prices and quantities of all handicrafts made of Iriartea sold for two months, chosen randomly, in a cooperative of indigenous artisans in Pastaza Province. I also talked with people who harvested the palm to learn when and why harvesting occurs Interviews with staff of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) gave me insights into the issues surrounding certification efforts in Ecuador. By integrating demographjc information from ecological studies of the palm's growth, reproduction, and mortality with information from market studies, I developed simulations of harvesting Iriartea in newly settled areas using management practices that could be considered in developing guidelines for certification. In addition, I carried out a quantitative analysis of decision making under uncertainty based on infor1nation about prices and demand collected from catpenters and harvesters. Country setting. Construction of roads and the trans-Ecuadorian oil pipeline turned eastern Ecuador into one of the most intense targets of colonization in the Amazon basin and stimulated one of the highest rates of deforestation in the world (Peck 1990)

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139 The effe cts of national policies related to transportation and economic development, intended to encourage exports, also encourage the rep]acement of forests with cattle pastures and banana, coffee, cacao, and oil-palm plantations. Logging companies have built roads that provide entry points for additional settlers into forested areas and thereby increase deforestation pressures from colonization (Rudel 1993; Pearce 1994). The high ways opened the Amazonian forests to colonists, land speculators, and agribusiness interests (Southgate et al 1991 ). Colonists and indigenous farmers invest in a strikingly varied portfolio of agricultural land use practices. Polycultures of annuals and perennials such as maize or rice with cacao, coffee, and citrus or other fruit trees are common (Pichon 1996a, 1996b; pers. obs.) Mixed systems not only serve as insurance against crop failures, but also help to maintain agroecosystem functions by incorporating the benefits of succession, reducing risks from pests, and including deep-rooted plants that allow uptake of nutrients from subsoils (Ewe! 1986). NTFPs can be an important element in the portfolio of cash producing strategies for farmers, and some, like Iriartea, can also fit within the polycultural systems that many Amazonian Ecuadorians already employ. Research sites. I conducted my ecological research in lowland Ecuador at Jatun Sacha Biological Research Station (hereafter, Jatun Sacha) and the surrounding community in Napo Province of Amazonian Ecuador Jatun Sacha is located on the Rio Napo (01 04' S; 77 36' W) at an elevation of about 450 m and is classified as a Tropical Wet Forest (Holdridge 1967 ) with annual rainfall of 3500-4000 mm and mean annual temperature of 23 C. The station is actively expanding through acquisitions of nearby

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140 farms. In 1995 when my study began, it covered an area of 1200 ha; 70% of this area was primary forest, with secondary forest making up the rest. Much of the secondary forest was under cultivation in coffee and cacao approximately 30 years prior to my study Recent acquisitions by J atun Sacha include areas that were pastures or agricultural cropland until the time of purchase Hunting and selective logging have occurred in the past over much of the reserve area. The surrounding community consists of colonists and lowland Quichua people who own small farms (about 50 ha per family), most of which include pastures that have been cleared for cattle grazing. Additional research among harvesters and carpenters was conducted in Pastaza Province, in or near the provincial capital of Puyo. Puyo is located on the Rio Pastaza (01 30' S; 78 05 W) at an elevation of about 900 m Forested areas near Puyo are classified as a Tropical Wet Forest (Holdridge 1967) with annual rainfall of 4000 mm and mean annual temperature of 22 C. To understand the potential market for products made from Iriartea, I visited towns throughout much of Ecuador. In small villages in the Amazonian Ecuador, I usually found only one or two stores selling items made of Iriartea In small cities, such as Bafios and Cuenca, where some streets were devoted to stores with items likely to appeal to tourists, I chose one side of each block and went into all the stores on that side, in search of Iriartea. In Otavalo, where vendors sell in the main plaza on market days, I went from vendor to vendor in my quest for Iriartea products. Although I did not visit Ecuador's largest city, Guayaquil, I did sample the stores in the tourist center of Quito. In only three towns in Amazonian Ecuador, Puyo and Shell-Mera in Pastaza Province and

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141 Tena, the capital of Napo Province, did I find carpenters who made furniture from Iriartea. I interviewed 6 of the 8 carpenters in Pastaza Province and 2 who worked at the mission school in Tena. I found only one parquet factory that used Iriartea for flooring, again in Puyo. At a national convention and industrial show for wood products and home builders held in Quito, I found no additional vendors of Iriartea furniture or building materials. Other carpenters and vendors might exist, but I was unable to locate them during my stay in Ecuador. Research questions. The overall question I address in this chapter is, "What is the potential for sustainable management of Iriartea using certification as a technique to encourage best practices?" To answer this question, I examine the following research questions: What can we learn about the market for goods manufactured from Iriartea and the potential for expanding the market? How does uncertainty constrain individual decisions to harvest Iriartea? How might a management plan for certification of Iriartea fit within current land use practices? Results and Discussion What can we learn about the market for goods manufactured from lriartea? Perhaps because Iriartea is abundant in Amazonian Ecuador and Puyo is a town large enough to support several carpenters, the Iriartea industry, if that term may be used, is concentrated there. In addition to carpenters' workshops and storefronts where furniture and handicrafts are sold, a parquet factory and four stores that sell handicrafts geared to the tourist market are located in Puyo. Although the road from Puyo to Banos

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142 is lined with foothills of the Andes where the palm grows abundantly along the steep ridges, in Banos I found only rosaries and no other handicrafts made from Iriarte a for sale. Along the highway west from Quito to Puerto Quito, I stopped at a restaurant where the napkin holders in the tables and a small keg on the bar were made of Iriartea When I asked where they had been bought, the answer was "Puyo." In Quito, marimbas from the coast, walking canes, small blowguns, and rarely, a child's toy knife or lance could be found; shopkeepers told me the items, other than the marimbas, came from "the Oriente" or Amazonian Ecuador. In Tena, capital of Napo Province, also in Amazonian Ecuador, carpenters at the local mission build furniture made of Iriartea, but only by special order. They consider the palm stems difficult to use, and because the furniture made from Iriartea is more expensive, few people buy it. The equipment at the mission workshop was brought to Ecuador from Rome in the 1940s Perhaps the age of the machinery increases the difficulties in using Iriartea, including splintering along the fibers. When I asked at the only store in Tena that sold handicrafts to tourists where handicrafts made of Iriartea came from, the answer was again, "Puyo." In smaller towns along the Rio Napo, such as Ahuano, La Punta, and Misahuallf, I found traditional items, including blowguns, daggers, and arrows, made not in Puyo, but by indigenous artisans who sold handicrafts to the small stores where tourists might also buy ceramics and beadwork. In Puyo, experienced carpenters generally said it wa s no harder to work with Iriartea than other woods, although one told me that the fibers could explode if they got too hot on the lathe One potential problem with expanding markets for Iriartea furniture

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143 and handicrafts is the possibility that the lignified fibers in the stem do indeed require special skills that experienced carpenters in Puyo have already developed. In addition to the potential problem of splintering and exploding fibers, the weight of items made from the palm can be a problem for expanding markets. Furniture can be so heavy that transporting it outside the Oriente becomes prohibitively expensive, unless the customer who orders the furniture agrees to pay the shipping costs. The last problem for market expansion outside the humid, tropical provinces of Amazonian Ecuador is that furniture and handicrafts made from the palm stem may crack along fiber lines when these items are transported to drier regions. Although carpenters and artisans had several techniques for attempting to dry the stems before fashioning it into furniture and handicrafts or before applying lacquer to finished objects, the task is almost impossible in a region with 4000 mm of rain annually and where air conditioning, dehumidifiers, and drying rooms were virtually non-existent. How much is sold? While it is not possible to know the potential demand for Iriartea products if market problems (especially transportation) could be overcome, it seems safe to assume that more could be sold in other areas, based on conversations with carpenters who had taken furniture or handicrafts to annual trade shows in Ambato and Guayaquil. They took the risk of paying to transport smaller furniture items constructed of strips of stem, such as collapsing patio chairs that are unlikely to split because the strips are narrow. To understand the current demand for handicrafts that are small enough for tourists to carry home and therefore avoid the transportation problem, I recorded transactions involving Iriartea products at the Almacen Yana Puma, the

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144 cooperative handicraft store of Organizaci6n de Pueblos Indigenas de Pastaza (OPIP; the Organization of Indigenous Communities in Pastaza Province). This handicraft store has both the greatest variety and most "ecotourism appeal" because indigenous artisans share the profits from store sales and because the location is near hotels that cater to tour groups and arrange freelance guides to escort independent tourists into the rainforest. A larger store on the outskirts of town occasionally sells Iriartea products, but specializes in balsa handicrafts and offered little inforrnation about Iriartea demand. The mean total monthly sales at OPIP were $1167 in 1995; mean monthly sales of Iriartea products were $132 or 11 % of total sales (Table 4 -1). Sales records suggest that most items sold for less than $5.00, but occasional sales of more expensive items can be important. For example, in November 1995, two kegs comprised 28% of the total sales of Iriartea products. Furniture sales were more difficult to quantify, because carpenters either kept few records because the business was a family operation (unlike the cooperative OPIP where accurate records were important for avoiding conflicts over profits) or because they were unwilling to share the records with me. Sales were also sporadic; hence, the opportunity to observe actual transactions was limited. While I could observe furniture made of Iriartea in public places, like lamp shades in hotels and patio chairs (las sillas perezosas) outdoors at many houses, I could not know how many homes had desks or beds of Iriartea inside.

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145 Table 4-1. Price s of Iriart ea objects sold during two months in 1995 June 1995 Quantity Sucres Price US$ Total$ lance 19 2000 $0.67 $12.67 key holder 6 4500 $1.50 $9.00 na 1 okin holder 4 5000 $1.67 $6 67 ash tray 12 5000 $1.67 $20.00 machete 1 5000 $1.67 $1.67 knife 1 5000 $1.67 $1.67 da~ er 4 5500 $1.83 $7.33 machete 1 5500 $1.83 $1.83 blow ?,11n (small) 7 7600 $2.53 $17.73 fruit holder 7 8000 $2.67 $18.67 pencil holder 2 9000 $3.00 $6.00 blow gun Oar :e) 7 9500 $3.17 $22.17 keg (large) 1 75000 $25.00 $25.00 Total $150.40 Nov. 1995 Quantitv Sucres US$ Total$ lance (small) 1 1000 $0.33 $0.33 napkin holder 2 2000 $0.67 $1.33 lance 8 2000 $0.67 $5.33 key holder 1 4500 $1.50 $1.50 key holder 1 4500 $1.50 $1.50 napkin holder 10 5000 $1.67 $16 67 ash tray 16 5000 $1.67 $26.67 machete 3 5000 $1.67 $5.00 machete 1 6000 $2.00 $2.00

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146 Table 4-1--continued Nov. 1995 Quantity Sucres US$ Total$ da~t!er 4 5500 $1.83 $7.33 fruit holder 1 8000 $2.67 $2.67 blow gun 2 10000 $3.33 $6.67 blow ~un (larze) 1 15000 $5.00 $5.00 ke.:: 2 48000 $16.00 $32.00 Total $114.00

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147 From interviews with carpenters, I learned of factors that limited sales of lriartea products, if not actual quantities and prices. I think the carpenters provided fairly reliable information because their answers were not contradictory, although they did not all pay the same price for raw materials, and because all had been in the business for 4 5 years and had experienced market fluctuations. For example, all of the carpenters worked with materials other than Iriartea apparently because sales of other items in addition to those made of Iriartea were necessary to maximize profits. I noticed three patterns among these carpenters. Some specialized in handicrafts, rather than furniture, for sale to tourists and local customers. These handicrafts could be produced quickly with a lathe and sold at a lower price than furniture. One example of this kind of product is a keg used to store and serve liquor. A carpenter might pay $3.00 US for a 2 m length of Iriartea stem that could produce 6 kegs; each keg could then sold for $18. A carpenter working 9 hours a day made 24 to 30 kegs in a day. These kegs were quite popular among residents of Pastaza Province One 30-year-old Shuar woman who had lived in the city for a while told me these kegs kept beer and chic ha longer than a refrigerator. Earlier, an Ecuadorian anthropologist had described a food storage box made of Iriartea used by the Chachis (now Cayapas) in northwestern Ecuador that preserved foods (Luz Marfa de la Torre, pers comm.). 4 A second approach used by carpenters was to specialize in patio furniture made of lriartea. This style of furniture can be made to fold in thirds for easier transport to nearby 4The potential for anti-microbial activity of tannins, with which Iriartea is rich, has been explored by several researchers (e.g., Chung et al. 1993; Irobi et al. 1994; Scalbert 1991)

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148 towns in the Oriente. Carpenters who specialized in patio furniture (made from 3 5 cm wide strips of Iriartea) sought sales during holiday markets and expositions where locally produced items were displayed The major problem with selling in these nearby markets (ferias) was again transportation One carpenter told me it would be easy to make a good living selling his chairs, if only he had his own truck to carry them. A chair might require $9 in Iriartea stems and be sold for $30. While the first two groups of carpenters were willing to build traditional furniture by special order from a customer (they had the skills and equipment needed), the last specialized in fine furniture made from lriartea One had a showroom with a clerk available to sell di s play items or to take special orders for beds, desks, cabinets, tables, and chairs. Handicrafts were also available in the showroom, but the owner made them from scraps of stems used for furniture and did not make handicrafts to sell wholesale to retail tourists shop s as did the carpenters who s pecialized in handicrafts. A desk made of lriartea require s $32 in stem material and sells for $1000, but it also takes 15 days to build the desk. Another market for lriartea is the parquet industry. While I found only one source of parquet made of the palm, several people told me there were other sources in other towns or had been other factories in the past. Although it seems unlikely that only one person deals in this flooring material, I was unable to find more than rumors of others A larger lriartea parquet industry exists in Peru (Rosario Lanao Flores, Conservation International, pers. comm.). The factory in Puyo (with 15 years experience in the market for Iriartea flooring ) had both a retail shop and an office attached to the

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149 lumber yard where patterns of parquet were displayed. These patterns included both designs made entirely of Iriartea as well as several with yellow or red woods to contrast with the darker palm. Here again, lriartea was more expensive than other materials: the prices for parquet flooring made of other woods ranged from $3.00 -$9 .00 per m 2 ; while for lriartea, the price was $7 .00 $11.00 per m 2 Higher prices for Iriartea reflect both the higher price of its stem (other woods cost about 1/3 the price of Iriartea for 2 m lengths) and the added difficulty of working with a dense palm fibers that are likely to splinter. In addition, the lathes and table saws needed to work with the palm are expensive, especially when carpenters need to borrow the money to buy new equipment. One carpenter explained that he would like to make more furniture to sell in nearby towns, but to borrow the necessary funds, $666, he would have to pay back $1,333 in one year. I don't know if his calculations were correct, but even if not, the perception of the cost of credit kept him from seeking a loan. Overall, the market for Iriartea products is constrained by difficulties in transportation to population centers. The weight of furniture makes paying for transportation by public conveyance prohibitive and few people in Amazonian Ecuador own their own trucks or cars. Sales are limited to customers who live near the carpenters or tourists who choose items light enough to carry in their suitcases. Difficulties with turning the palm stem or cutting the hard, dense fibers seem easily overcome by carpenters who take the time to learn how to avoid problems. Fibers splitting apart in dry conditions seem more problematic for expansion to new markets outside the Oriente.

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150 The drying techniques used by carpenters were somewhat unreliable because the problem is persistent. How does uncertainty constrain individual decisions to harvest lriartea? For the economist evaluating benefits or profits from an N'I'FP, the future is full of uncertainty; the farther economists look into the future, the less certain they can be about monetary returns from a project or from delayed harvesting. Gains from investments or from the appreciating value of goods purchased are unavailable as long as the profit taking i s deferred. Cost-benefit analysis demonstrates how economic perspectives about the future can be significant in real life applications If a plan for harvesting a N'l'FP is analyzed, the costs of harvesting (such as labor or transportation ) are compared with the benefits of harvesting over time. The sum of the benefits over the course of a project is called the net present value (NPV). The equation for NPV includes the discount rate assigned to the project and the number of years assumed to be the life of the project. Future benefits are perceived to be reduced according to a discount rate to account for the lower value of profits in the future. Some ecologists, who presumably believe a future that includes more species is more valuable than the alternative, argue that discount rates are inappropriate in deter1nining the potential for sustainable harvesting of natural resources ( e g Lande e t al. 1994). Others suggest that NPV presents only a part of the picture and other methods of analysis offer the advantage of including preferences of individuals in an economic analysis (e.g., Tacconi 1995 ). In the following analysis, I use techniques of operations research to express relationships among variables that determine the financial payoff of a harvesting deci s ion.

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151 Of course, non-economic variables may influence a decision even when the objective is financial. To some extent, these other variables may be taken into account by using different criteria for optimistic or pessimistic decision makers or by examining different strategies for risk seekers and risk averters although in many uncertain cases, we may assume that the decision maker values a higher payoff and lower risk (Kiker 1987). I will not examine factors that might make a person more likely optimistic or pessimistic. For example, people might often decide to plant food crops for family subsistence rather than cash crops that could leave them better off financially (Gladwin 1983). Whether they have experienced disastrous fluctuations in market prices in the past or have some other reason for choosing this alternative, the criteria is still that of the pessimistic decision maker: avoid the worst case (i.e., going hungry in this example). This analysis focuses on decision makers who are interested in earning cash, not those who must decide between subsistence farming and earning cash. Labor is valued in ter1ns of one day of work at the prevailing wage in Amazonian Ecuador in 1996. While many of the variables in this analysis are not under the control of the decision maker, they can be assigned probabilities to help determine the best payoff from a set of choices. I assume that in any given context, the potential harvester is able to assign probabilities to the likelihood of demand and prices, based on historical infor1r1ation about the market from personal experience or that of neighbors and relatives. I use prices in the analysis reported by carpenters who bought and harvesters who sold (Table 4-2). In addition, I assume that for any particular day, labor choices are mutually exclusive (i.e., a person cannot both engage in day labor and spend the day extracting forest products, although

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152 Table 4-2. Prices reported for lriartea stems in Pastaza Province in 1995 and 1996 Use Sucres per meter $ (US) per meter $(US) per 8 m stem )oles( construction) 2500 .83 6.67 poles 3000 1.00 8.00 ooles 3500 1.17 9.33 Mister Pollo 3750 1.25 10.00 ca.i-oenters 4000 1.33 10.67 carpenters 4167 1.39 11.11 caroenters 5000 1.67 13.33 mean 3903 1 30 10.41

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some resourceful people might manage to both hunt animals in a river side forest and pilot a motorized canoe for wages on the same day). I assume that harvesters are pessimistic decision makers who value avoiding the worst case scenario rather than seeking the highest (uncertain) profits. 153 I constructed a payoff model (Figure 4-1) to compare the outcomes of decisions made under certainty and uncertainty conditions. In the first cas~, S 1, the decision maker must choose between working for wages with a payoff of $5.00 per day or harvesting Iriartea for a known client at an agreed upon price. The probability of receiving the wage or the agreed upon price for the agreed upon quantity is assumed to be 1 0 (certainty). If the harvester can cut 20 stems in one day, normally with a chain saw, the decision is straightforward. Given the lowest price, the value of 20 stems is $160; with the highest price, the value is $260 (but requires 2 days of labor to harvest the stems and cut them into 2 m lengths). As the payoff analysis demonstrates, the complication for decision makers is that a guaranteed customer is not necessarily at the gate when cash is needed. For example, if demand is O (zero), the payoff is Oas well, but more interestingly, if the price is in the lowest range, the calculated payoff is less than 2 days' wages ($10 > $9.60) and 2 days are required to cut the stems and transport them to a market town. When the outcome is uncertain and includes even a small probability that no stems are sold ( demand = 0), then the pessimistic decision maker (who is motivated to avoid the worst case) will choose day

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Strategy 1 (with contract) Strategy 2 (with uncertainty) l $5 Work off farm 10 Harvest 20 stems 2 days @$5=$10 Work off farm nb~ ~'7 Event low pnce med pnce Price $8 l 2 $72.00 (.6) $lO Harvest $160 $200 $260 Demand (.1 (.6) .3) (.1 .3) .1 .6 .3) 0 10 20 0 10 20 0 10 20 154 Figure 4-1. Payoff model for decision making under uncertainty and with a contract for sales assuming a pessimistic decision maker.

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155 labor rather than harvesting. In contrast, an optimistic decision maker, hoping for the best case under uncertainty, would always choose to harvest for the greatest potential payoff This prediction correlates with the my observation that harvesters always had customers for Iriarte a stems before they cut them and supports my assumption that harvesters are pessimistic decision makers. In Chapter 3, I discussed one community in which indigenous people had harvested Iriartea for personal use when it was close by, but abandoned use of the palm when the distance was too great (much as Homma (1992) would predict). I then identified conditions under which current harvesters increase their harvesting efforts or current non-harvesters are likely to begin harvesting. For example, the sales of Iriartea stems to the major chicken purveyor (Mister Pollo) brought new actors into the market This company offered to pay $10 a piece for Iriartea stems (the medium range price) in communities along paved roads. In spite of the greater walking distance required to reach this resource in the forest, people were willing to harvest when the price was certain. How is this analysis helpful for understanding potential market flows (supply side) and designing projects to encourage conservation and development through certification? The clearest message is that a medium price with certainty is a much better choice for the optimist or the pessimist than a high price, given uncertainty. A green premium might not be nearly as persuasive an encouragement for harvesters to comply with good management practices in order to obtain a certification label as would be the assurance of orders for a predictable number of stems at a medium price. Proponents of certification for NTFPs might profit from an analysis of the relative payoffs of extracting

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156 NTFPs under certainty and uncertainty to determine whether the green premium or a more reliable demand or some other factor is important for local harvesters. How Might a Management Plan for Iriartea Fit within Current Land Use Practices? The inherent risk and uncertainty of harvesting forest products suggest that measurement of stocks and flows and consequent assessment of sustainability needs to be an on-going process The goals of sustainable development, sustainable harvesting, or sustainable management of NTFPs all depend on understanding how to sustain productivity and diversity in forests from which resources are extracted (Hansen 1997) Certification of forest products offers one approach to encouraging good forest management practices through market incentives. By linking the continued health of the forest with continuing healthy profits, certification's advocates hope to encourage sustainable forest management. One difficulty with certification of good management practices is that the definition of good management and the details of goodness are highly context-specific. Adaptive management. One method for defining good management in a given context is adaptive management (e.g., Walters 1986; Walters and Holling 1990). Using this approach, stakeholders decide on goals, examine potential outcomes of alternative management strategies, and develop management guidelines that include research to monitor the effects of management and provide new infor1nation on which modifications to the original management plan can be made (Colfer 1995; Gunderson et al. 1995; Ludwig et al. 1993). The likelihood of successful management can be increased if management strategies fit current land use patterns, if local knowledge is incorporated in

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157 planning, and if extension programs provide the results of scientific studies to supplement local knowledge when resource use changes (Browder 1990). Certification projects attempt to encourage success through market incentives that involve either increased profits from green premiums and/or increased demand from a greater market share for certified products. Management strategies may also depend on incorporating the expertise of local interest groups or non-governmental organizations (NGOs). Adaptive management includes elements of social or organizational learning because management strategies cannot always depend on having individuals who remain in roles of responsibility. If organizations learn management skills through exchange of ideas and observation of other organizations' behaviors, then the ideas can have longer lifetimes than the individuals involved (Parson and Clark 1995). Information can flow through organizations or communities by word of mouth, much like an epidemic spreads through a susceptible population (Rogers and Shoemaker 1971; Shibutani 1966). The speed of transmission may relate to the perceived benefit of the information, just as increased virulence speeds the transmission of a disease or the spread of a rumor (Garnett and Holmes 1996; Goffman and Newil 1964; Daley and Kendall 1964). Planners might take advantage of the analogy to model the speed at which infor111ation about new demand (such as Mister Polio's need for Iriartea stems) can pass through a community or how quickly NGOs might learn about the benefits of a certification project. The speed at which ideas are spread may vary depending on the density of the social networks of the "carriers" and the frequency of interactions among

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158 carriers and susceptibles-those not yet "infected" with the information or with their spacial distributions (Dietz 1967; Holmes 1997; Rapoport and Yuan 1989). The possibility might be worth exploring that a tipping point or threshold exists when "everyone" will learn the news and perhaps behaviors will change (Gladwell 1996; Waltman 1974). Conservation organizations. Ecuador is fortunate to have a number of NGOs with staff experienced in conservation efforts. The national fores try department (INEF AN) also has a stake in conservation and utilization of forest resources. Staff members of both INEFAN and several NGOs have expressed concern about the fate of Iriartea in Amazonian Ecuador In fact, I was told by a botanist living in Ecuador, "In Puyo they think lriartea will be eradicated, but it is still the most abundant palm in the region" (H Pedersen, pers. comm.). During interviews with an INEFAN forester, I was told that in 10 years there would be no more lriartea where there are roads At an interview with an NGO official (Fundaci6n Fundacyt), I was told that in 10 years there would be no more fores ts in Ecuador. In part this concern for forests and forest resources comes from the experience of rapid deforestation in Ecuador and the knowledge that Iriartea, in particular, has been locally extirpated from overharvesting. In addition, this concern seems to reflect an awareness of the continuing rate of deforestation in spite of conservation effort s. For example, INEF AN requires that anyone who sells timber (including palm stems) must have a permit to do so. Reforestation plans are also officially required. There is apparently no restriction on personal use of palms growing on a family farm.

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159 Among the people I met, a few said they knew they could earn a lot of money selling Iriartea in Puyo, but it was too much trouble to get a per11tit. None of the people I met who were harvesting talked about the problems involved in getting a perrnit. I never asked directly if they had permits because the topic seemed too sensitive for an outsider to bring up. I did meet with the Asociaci6n de Agricultores y Productores Forestales (APROFOR) who attempted to balance harvesting with setting up an experimental plantation (2 ha) for Iriartea propagation. They transplanted seedlings, but unfortunately, many of them were dead or infirn1 when I visited, two months after the project began. Clearly, the group was interested in managing the forest to insure replacement of harvested stocks, but needed (and wanted) better infor1nation about growth and the potential for enrichment planting. In addition to NGOs with expressed concern about deforestation, there are also groups with experience in developing management plans. For example, ccd (Corporaci6n por Conservaci6n y Desarollo) has worked with the Rainforest Alliance in an Eco-OK project geared toward more sustainable banana production. This NGO also developed ecotourism projects in association with The Nature Conservancy and Care. In addition to developing experience with international markets and tourists, ccd works with Ecuadorian scientists to coordinate teams for assessment of biological and ecological impacts of commercialization projects. The existence of these NGOs can facilitate certification and defining good management practices with which to develop a sustainable management agenda.

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160 Simulations of lriartea Management Alternatives Although a management plan for sustainable harvest of Iriartea would require participation by local stakeholders, I have developed several harvesting scenarios that might be useful for considering the potential benefits of a project to encourage harvesting the palm. Of course, any plan for harvesting should take into account local condition s and the local density of Iriartea These simulations illustrate the consequences of a range of harvesting decisions, given particular initial conditions. The simulations are based on incorporating Iriartea management within current agricultural polycultures found in Amazonian Ecuador and are designed to develop guidelines within this context (Pichon 1996a) Because over-harvesting has occurred near some roads, management plans should recognize the need for limits on harvesting and encourage regeneration in abandoned pastures and agricultural plots By focusing on the pasture conversion process and palms left behind in that process, as well as on secondary forests that may grow up from abandoned farms, the suggestions that follow acknowledge the social factors beyond the forest or farm that encourage conversion and deforestation. While it seems unlikely that these factors can be changed on the strength of a plan for sustainable harvesting of Iriartea, a management plan that recognizes these factors may help moderate the impact of forces that encourage deforestation. By focusing on the opportunity to include lriartea in current polycultures, the system can be modified without requiring farmers to accommodate major change The basic guidelines that are suggested from simulations are that if farmers cut fewer individuals from 5 15 m tall when clearing pastures and agricultural plots, and future harvesting focuses on secondary

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161 fores ts, then sustainable harvesting can be achieved. This plan could also protect soils by increasing the diversity of agricultural polycultures and encourage regeneration after agricultural lands are abandoned. To carry out simulations, I assumed that the beginning point is a new settlement where f amities claim 50 ha parcels and Iriartea grows in half of that area at the stable stage distribution. Of course, sustainable management of lriartea, like other NTFPs, is context sensitive; there are regions where the palm is abundant and others where it is not found. Actual management plans, unlike simulations, depend on careful censussing of the target area. Mature forest cleared. In the first simulation, I assume the current pattern of clearing for new pastures or agricultural fields (Table 4-3). All lriartea individuals< 15 m tall are cut and no regeneration of seedlings occurs for 10 years while the land is actively used for agriculture. ff 10% of the adults> 15 mare cut each year, the total yield after 10 years is 51 stems or $ 510 $612 ( 1995 US $) if all are sold and not used by the household. Assuming that secondary forest follows pasture abandonment for 80 years after which mature forest transition probabilities apply, the return time is 150 years to stable stage distribution for mature forests. ff the current pattern is followed (simulation 2) with the variation that no adults between 15 m and 20 m tall are cut, then the yield is 69 stems and the return time is 189 years. These lengthy return times suggest another strategy might be needed to make sustainable harvesting a practical alternative. Mature forest with increased sparing. The next pair of simulations assume that 50% of individuals 5 15 m tall are left standing when pastures are cleared and 50% of

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162 Table 4-3. Simulations of six harvesting strategies in frontier areas where harvesting has not occurred and where the stable stage distribution is assumed to exist. The yield from harvesting adult size classes, the present value of stems harvested ( 1996 $), and the time needed for the population to return to the original levels included. In simulations 1-5, mature forest is converted to agricultural use; in simulation 6, secondary forest is converted. Mature Forest Conversion Strateg:, hei ht yield value ( 1996 $) return time 1. Cut all< 15 m; > 15 m 15-20 m 18 180 >20m 34 340 total 51 520 150 years 2. Cut all< 15 m; none> 15 15-20 m 0 0 m; all> 20 m >20m 69 690 total 69 690 189 years 3. Cut all< 5 m; Y2>5 m 15-20 m 18 180 >20m 34 340 total 51 520 92 years 4. Cut all < 5 m; 5-20 m; 15-20 m 0 0 all> 20 m >20m 69 690 total 69 690 97 years 5. Cut all< 5 m; 5-15 m; 15-20 m 0 0 none 15-20 m; > 20 m >20m 33 330 total 33 330 80 years Secondary Forest Conversion 6. Cut all< 5 m; 1/2 5-15 m; 15-20 m 0 0 none 15-20 m; all> 20 m >20m 52 520 total 52 520 23

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163 those > 15 m are cut. In this case, the yield is again 51 stems, but the return time is 92 years. If none of the 15-20 m palms are cut and 100% of those> 20 mare harvested over the 10 years, then the yield is 69 stems per hectare and return time is 97 years. This is still a lengthy cycle and suggests that other alternatives might be worth investigating. If management includes sparing 50% of the 5-15 m individuals and all the 15-20 m individuals, then harvesting 50 % of the> 20 m palms can yield 33 stems and reduce the return time to 80 years. Although this is a shorter time, it may be unreasonable to hope that fortner pastures in settled areas will be left fallow for 80 years. Return times for populations in mature forests may actually be too long to assure that harvesting Iriartea can be a sustainable practice. Secondary forests. Fortunately, lriartea is found not only in mature forests, but also in secondary forests. While these patches of Iriartea might well be in secondary forests that regenerate from abandoned agricultural land, they are also found, occurring naturally, within the mosaic of a dynamic forest ecosystem (Losos 1995). The density of adults in secondary forests is lower than in mature forests, but if the secondary forests containing Iriartea are targeted for clearing pastures and agricultural use, then sparing 50 % of individuals 5-15 m tall, cutting no individuals 15-20 m tall, and harvesting 100% of individuals> 20 m will provide a total yield of 52 stems and a return time of 23 years. If a household owns more than 1 ha in which Iriartea grows, the opportunity for sustainable management becomes more likely. Focusing on secondary fores ts for agricultural plots often requires less labor than converting mature fores ts, although the opportunity for timber sales from secondary, rather than mature, forests may be more limited.

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164 Fit with current land use. Focusing on secondary fores ts and building on land use patterns that already include a diversity of life forms in polyculture can combine the short ter1n goals of producing cash with the longer ter111 goal of maintaining soil or even ecosystem viability (Alcorn 1990; Pichon 1996b; Vayda 1994 ). Sparing individuals < 15 m tall becomes more important for lriartea as the density of humans rises and both the area of forests grows smaller and the length of fallow periods grows shorter. Sustainable management of lriartea for future generations will require changes in attitudes about the palm; therefore, an extension component, ideally based on participatory techniques, is an essential element of a management plan. Two common ideas about Iriartea that might be challenges for sustainable management are that the palm grows quickly and the related idea that it is a weed (mala yerba) when it is small. While there are times when individuals grow rapidly (for example, from 5-20 m), it may take 50 years to reach 5 m (Table 2-9). Like some other tropical tree species, lriartea seedlings appear to be able to persist in shaded forest understories, ready to take advantage of changing resources within the forest mosaic when gaps are fo11ned after surviving in "suspended animation" for many years (Uhl et al. 1990). Cutting juveniles when pastures are cleared during slash and burn or slash and mulch agriculture, or using juveniles for machete practice can have serious consequences for the palm's population regeneration time. Succession after disturbance. Agriculture and cattle ranching are major anthropogenic disturbances in Amazonian forests (Nepstad et al. 1990). Agricultural practices that include elements of a forested ecosystems, such as polycultures that include trees and shrubs with grasses and food crops, can encourage the return of agricultural

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165 croplands back to forests by protecting soils and encouraging seedling recruitment (Ewel 1986; Uhl 1990). The trees found in polycultures can serve as "nurseries" both providing seeds of their own species and serving as perches for birds or bats to disperse seeds from more distant forest patches. Studies of abandoned pastures have shown that large seeds survive better than small ones, but dispersal of large seeds to pastures is limited. Including a large seeded palm, like Iriartea, in pastures or agricultural fields can encourage the return of forests, rather than a change to shrubland or savannas that might follow farming or ranching in some situations (Folke et al. 1994; Uhl 1990). While the transition from field to forest is not guaranteed, careful management can encourage patterns of succession that leave a legacy for future generations, rather than a toreclosure on their options. Conclusions Increased sales of products made from Iriartea stems could potentially both reduce the disturbance to forests from agriculture and provide additional income to residents of Amazonian Ecuador. Products made from Iriartea fit many of the criteria for good choices in developing NTFPs and management of the palm for harvesting can encourage forest regeneration after farming or ranching. For these reasons, Iriartea might be a candidate for projects with market incentives for good management through certification. Unfortunately, incentives for good management may not insure conservation of a species (in contrast to the use it or lose it hypothesis) if demand and prices increase too rapidly.

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166 Local and regional markets exist for a variety of products made from Iriartea stems. Indigenous weapons have become a part of the tourist market for handicrafts, while furniture and handicrafts that require table saws and lathes find buyers within the Oriente as well as among some tourists More in depth study of these two types of products would be necessary to deterrnine whether adding value locally, by taking saws to the forest, could provide a better financial return and greater conservation incentive for forest dwellers than would selling stems in towns where the necessary equipment and skilled carpenters are already in place. Using the criteria of conservation, good management practices for harvesting Iriartea could both fit with local land use patterns as part of a polycultural cropping system and encourage intensified use of secondary forests, leaving mature forests for the monkeys, bats, and rodents that eat Iriartea fruit and the parrots that make it their home. Taken together, the natural history of Iriartea that includes slow replacement rates in mature forests, a land use pattern that already contains polycultures of trees and shrubs mixed with crops or pasture, and pessimistic decision making that encourages harvesters to cut only when demand is secure suggest that both economic and environmental benefits could follow from a certification program that links market incentives with good management of Iriartea. Given a context that includes experienced NGOs able to assist in project development, certification appears to be an even more desirable option. Still, management is not the whole story. Politics and other social factors can have more influence on policy decisions than either economics or ecology For Ecuador, insecure borders with neighboring countries can function as a national equivalent of insecure land

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167 tenure for settlers. Border conflicts can create pressure to demonstrate ownership of an area through development and rapid colonization that leave little time for the "best practices" that a management plan might include. Even the best plan for good management can fail if management is a lower priority than demonstrating control of land and resources. Additional concerns about increased demand for lriartea arise from considering the limits of certification in a frontier area, distant from regulators and without a tradition of limits on harvesting While the land tenure system officially eliminates open access to resources, increased demand and increased prices could introduce pressures not unlike those that followed the increase in prices for rattan in Indonesia (Chapter 3). Increased prices can effectively thwart the sustainability of harvesting plans (Freese 1997). Rising demand and higher prices can encourage over-exploitation of easily accessible populations, poaching may become profitable enough to discourage respect for property rights ( especially in areas where few law enforcement agencies are found), and if prices rise on a scale comparable to the increases seen for rattan, harvesters are likely to see the opportunity to ''cash in'' on the boom as time limited (i.e., the discount rate may go up). Even without runaway price increases based on international demand, certification cannot necessarily guarantee sustainable harvesting in an area where the chain of control is difficult to monitor and where no traditional controls on harvesting exist. For lriartea, excessive harvesting could easily be undetected if it is carried out farther beyond roads than is currently the norrn. Moreover, although fam1ers traditionally spare some adult lriartea in pastures and agricultural fields, they usually plan to harvest the palms later on

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168 whenever the stems are needed. Exaggerated profits could easily change this modest for1n of traditional restraint. Biologically, the slow growth of Iriartea, combined with the perception of fast growth, leads many residents to be unconcerned about the palm's regeneration. Its abundance also gives the impression that the palm is a weedy species, although Ecuadorian foresters and environmentalists are concerned about its future in the region. Certification of harvesting could address these issues, but an ecological education program, as well as links to steady markets for the stem, seems an essential element of such a plan for sustainable harvesting. Market-based incentives for sustainable harvesting (such as certification) bear a heavy burden. They must embrace the interests of current and future generations of humans as well as the biological potential of the resource. In addition, certification assumes the responsibility of balancing economic and ecological factors while implementing changes to the current system. This daunting task depends on thoughtful monitoring and rigorous evaluation of the effects of change if the potential for sustainability is to be realized. In weighing the likely success of plans for certification and marketing sustainably harvested forest resources, perhaps the stakeholders can make wise decisions by considering not only the likelihood of sustainable harvesting of N'I'FPs, but also the potential for deforestation from alternative sources of income available to the people who depend on the forest for their subsistence. Perhaps the difficulties inherent in attempts to manage resources sustainably can become less daunting if market incentives focus not simply on a single species, but on a suite of NTFPs that can provide alternatives to forest residents and present reminders to consumers that forest

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169 conservation depends on their choices, not simply on the actions of people in forests in some distant tropical country.

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CHAPTERS CONCLUSIONS Lessons for Studies of Sustainable Harvesting The task of determining levels of harvesting that allow a species, as well as the ecosystem from which it is extracted, to be maintained requires understanding the complex array of interactions among social, economic, and ecological variables that influ ence harvesting. Although neither ecology nor economics alone can determine the likelihood of sustainability, together they may be able to help define contexts in which sustainable development is more or less likely. For example, by including the value of a resource for future generations, ecologists and economist can help avoid the incompatibility of short-run thinking and sustainable development. Lack of knowledge about long-term consequences of a decision to harvest fore st products can lead to social traps that lure decision makers into seeking short tertn benefits with unknown long-ter1r1 costs By paying attention to traditional management and gathering ethnobotanical knowledge, in addition to conducting studies of population ecology and markets, knowledge of long-term consequences can be enhanced. Researchers have an important role in gathering information to encouraged infortned decision making about natural resource use. The interplay of intuition and insight which lead to seeing and describing patterns in nature are essential first steps in 170

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171 f ortnulating testable hypotheses which can be disproved with more rigorous experimental designs (Prance, et al. 1987; Prance, 1991; Phillips and Gentry, 1993a and 1993b; Godoy and Bawa, 1993). Economic botany or ethnobotany provides methods that can provide insights into a broad range of issues and a platform for critical thinking about resource use and conservation. This range of methods includes inventory studies that describe which plants are used by a group of people, what percent of plants in a sample plot are used, or for what purposes are plants utilized; resource management studies that delve into the processes by which people insure the continued availability of useful plants; and "conservation" studies that link plant use with conservation by estimating the value of extracted forest resources and comparing that value with timber harvesting or clear cutting a forest for cattle ranching or plantation farming. In addition, studies that elaborate the importance of markets for understanding both the changing pressures on harvesting plant products and the growing concern that non-timber forest products are indeed harvested in non-destructive ways also link ethnobotany and conservation very directly. By identifying potentially marketable products that depend on intact forest systems for continued growth (and therefore availability to the market) and by clarifying biological relationships that may limit sustainable extraction (e.g. Peters, 1990; LaFrankie, 1994), ethnobotanists demonstrate the vital connections between their field and conservation biology as well as the potential for rigorous ethnobotanical studies As Padoch ( 1992) discusses, much more ethnobotanical research is needed in the critical area of marketing non-timber forest products. In addition as ethnobotanists learn to use tools

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172 employed in gender analysis by agricultural and natural resource economists, even more accurate information about resource use will become available to conservationists and planners (Thomas-Slayer et al., 1993 ; Sen and Grown, 1989). My study attempted to use ethnobotany as a technique for understanding the long-ter1n consequences of changes in resource use. By bringing together perspectives from social and biological sciences, ethnobotanical methods helped me understand how increased income from the development of forest resources is quite likely to encourage change in social and economic conditions. These changes are likely to work to the detriment of forest people, especially if the s tate becomes involved in protection the interests of national elites. Nonetheless, we may also learn to plan projects that anticipate the consequences of success and the expected behavior of the state and local elites. As we have seen in the experience of the rubber tappers of Brazil, alliances with international organizations may alter expected power relations. Projects based on the objective of sustainable development should include several elements in their design. For example, project planners must take into account the political and social context at local national, and international levels. Researchers should examine the biological potential for sustainable extraction of resources and put in place monitoring experiments that allow for adaptation to changing environmental conditions or to indications that planned harvesting levels are in practice too high. To have hope of success, projects must involve local institutions and community groups to plan the course of development and to participate in conservation decisions.

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173 Forest conservation might best be served by projects that encourage major players in deforestation, such as cattle ranchers and colonist farmers, to earn more of their profits from extraction of N'I'FPs and to foster the growth of these products through natural fore s t management (Browder 1992) Meeting the challenge of incorporating sustainable NTFP extraction into the portfolios of settlers can begin with products that fit land u s e strategies that have proven viable for farmers within the region. Although clearing agricultural land is encouraged by settlement and land tenure policies, within the context of a variety of pre ss ures to clear land settlers still have options with regard to the forr11 land clearing talces. Trees, especially palms, can be left standing Because slash-and bum or slash-and-mulch agriculture depends on a fallow period during which secondary forest may begin to regenerate, using these secondary fores ts might be an ideal solution to the quest for NTFPs that fit within the cycle of regeneration in areas near to human settlement. Harvesting Iriartea My research project focused on one economically important species, Iriartea with a wide distribution in the neotropics and provides an example of methods for using ecological and economic infor111ation to assess the sustainability of that species. By studying the life history and population biology of a species, it was possible to estimate the effects of several harvesting regimes and to investigate how harvesting might threaten the future of this abundant resource The technique s of population ecology and demography helped me answer the questions: Where is the resource? and How much is there? Matrix models were used to analyze the effects of change if harvesting increases

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174 I conducted ethnographic interviews to help answer these questions with regard to markets and transportation, as well as to understand more about the pressures for change in the practices of the harvesters, artisans and carpenters who depend on this palm for at least some of their livelihood. Several methodological lessons can be drawn from this experience. First, the interpretation of sustainability used here emphasizes maintaining current levels of the resource and understanding pressures affecting its density and distribution. The population levels I found might represent a major loss of the species if compared with information about densities from one or two generations ago. Sustainability inevitably involves a decision to choose some point in time as a reference Because the ecological research was conducted for a limited time and within the bounds of a research station, the demographic inf or1nation included here might not represent the full biological potential of the species. It is important to remember that estimates based on matrix models are only estimates used to form hypotheses about how a species is likely to respond if current environmental conditions and demographic patterns continue. Secondly, the concept of stocks and flows provided the opportunity to discover that, while measuring stocks is not without difficulties, it is much easier than measuring flows. Because harvesting and sales are intertnittent activities, it was difficult to observe the market. Infor111ation about harvesting, purchasing sterns or sales of furniture was almost always retrospective. Finally, integrating demographic, harvesting, and demand inf or1nation provided a basis for understanding the interplay between harvest decisions

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175 and the stocks and flows of Iriartea, which may be missed by focusing on only biological or economic influences on sustainability. The question, "How can demographic studies inf orrn management decisions within the context of changing land use and forest conversion?" requires a social as well as biological answer. National policies of road building and rural electrification have brought people closer to markets and encouraged expansion by colonists into frontier areas. People with access to natural resources then had easier access by road to markets in which to sell products made from these resources. Clearing agricultural land for pastures or cash crops reduces the numbers of smaller Iriartea indjviduals, yet when these pastures are abandoned, secondary fores ts may grow up, providing enough shade for seedling survival yet enough sun to encourage growth and survival of juveniles and small adults Of course, this regeneration depends on sparing sufficient Iriartea seed trees when forests are cleared for agriculture. Establishing guidelines for harvesting requires input from all stakeholders in the decision, not simply an ecological analysis. Such guidelines, if they are developed, should include provisions for monitoring unanticipated consequences of harvesting or changes in future environmental conditions. Given the value of spreading risks in agriculture and the increasing needs for cash among Amazonian settlers, a sustainable plan for harvesting Iriartea seems worthy of further investigation.

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APPENDIX MATRIX MODELS AND POPULATION DYNAMICS The use of matrix models in population biology has a long history (e.g., Leslie 1945; Letkovitch 1965) and has become a useful tool in understanding the life stages important for conservation of a species (e.g., Crouse et al. 1987; Lande 1988; Menges 1986; van Tienderen 1995) and for monitoring the effects of conservation interventions (Maschinski et al. 1997; Schemske et al 1994). Matrix models can also help identify the stages of an invasive species most likely to be controllable (Parker 1997). These models provide a common and well-understood approach to assessing the demographic characteristics of a population (Getz and Haight 1989), as well as the risk associated with population change (Burgman et al. 1993). Understanding the population structure and dynamics of a species is essential for developing management plans (e.g., Peters 1994; Pinard and Putz 1992). For example, projections using matrix models can f or1n the basis for estimating the number and size of individuals that may be harvested without endangering the continued existence of a population (e.g., Bosch 1971; Pefia Claros 1996; Peters 1990, 1991; Pinard 1993). Matrix models provide a means for easily manipulating demographic data, such as birth rates, death rates, and growth rates. When birth rates equal death rates, a population is stable (the number of individuals in the population remains constant). Growth rates 176

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177 deterrnine how quickly individuals make the transition from one stage to another and are important for dete11nining recovery time after harvesting. Moreover, careful comparative studies in optimal and marginal habitats can be useful in deter1nining the potential range of population growth rates (Hall and Bawa 1993; Horvitz and Schemske 1995). Using matrix models to estimate the effects of harvesting on future populations is in some ways like using a computer model to test the weight a bridge can carry without collapsing; the infortnation is gained without the need to build a structure or, in the case of populations, without the risk of harvesting with undesired biological consequences. Transition Matrices A transition matrix represents the structure of a population grouped in age or size classes. This model of the population allows the definition of the probability of movement from one life cycle stage to another in a given time period (Figure A-1). By raising the transition matrix to a high power (say, 256) thee dominant latent root of the matrix or lambda (A) can be found. Solving for the largest real eigenvector of the matrix provides an analytical solution for the value of A. Because A has been shown to equal the intrinsic rate of population increase, this parameter indicates the likelihood of population stability if conditions remain unchanged. Populations are predicted to decline if A< 1, to remain stable if A= 1, and to increase if A> 1. In transition matrices, rows and columns equal the number of life cycle stages or ages used in the analysis. The top row of the matrix gives fecundity rates for adult size classes (denoted by Fi). The major diagonal provides Pi, the probability of surviving and remaining in a size class. The subdiagonal shows Gi the probability of surviving and

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178 growing into the next class. These transitions are based on the time period used for the matrix. The assumptions made by the model include stable environmental conditions and equal growth survival, and fecundity among members of a given class, as well as the absence of density-dependent effects on population dynamics. The variance in coefficients of the parameters in these matrices can be used to develop a confidence interval for A as described by Caswell (1989) and used in other studies (e.g., Cipollini et al. 1994; Pinard 1993). The confidence interval is defined as 2 standard errors. Age or Size Classes The usefulness of model manipulations for understanding population stability or the consequences of harvesting depends on recognizing how the assumptions and constraints of the model relate to the biology of the population under study. For example, the choice of using age or stage-based models depends on the organism to be studied. In many species, reaching the appropriate size to reproduce is more important than living a particular number of years (Caswell 1989). Ideally, an analysis of the life history of an organism would be based on following a cohort of individuals through their entire life cycle, but this ideal is much more practical in studies of short-lived animals, annual plants, or bacteria than with long-lived organisms. Furthermore, perennial plants such as trees are often better characterized by size ( or stage) than by age for both reproductive and survival parameters (e.g., Burgman et al. 1993). Estimating Demographic Parameters The trade-offs sometimes required to use matrix methods with less than ideal data may be worth making because of the insights to be gleaned from this approach With the

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179 following four critical pieces of infor111ation, reasonable assumptions about a population can be made: age of first reproduction, survival rate of juveniles to reproductive age, fecundity of adults, and annual survival rate of adults (McDonald and Caswell 1993). Finding these items, or reasonable estimates thereof, can guide research designs that will allow matrix models to be constructed. Stable Stage Distribution Raising a transition matrix to a high power (e.g., 256) essentially multiplies the population parameters by A until an unchanging distribution of size classes is reached. This distribution is called the "stable stage distribution" and comparing observed densities of a species with the stable stage distribution can provide insights into the stability of the current population. When age is the basis of a matrix model, the number of individuals per age class is expected to decrease monotonically In a stage-based matrix, peaks in density may occur at any stage because of differences in the duration of stages. Although natural populations are unlikely to match the stable stage distribution, comparing the observed distributions of size classes with the calculated stable stage distribution allows an analysis of the deviation of the observed population from stability. While A is not a true measure of population growth if the population is different from the stable distribution, it is positively correlated with the growth rate (Caswell 1989, 171 ). The value of A is more likely to be an over-estimate of potential growth when the observed population is less than the stable stage distribution.

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180 Sensitivity and Elasticity The relative importance of population parameters can be analyzed using techniques for examining sensitivity and elasticity. These two analy s es provide inforrnation about the magnitude of change in A when each parameter within the matrix i s changed but the elasticity matrix is somewhat easier to interpret because unlike the sensitivity matrix, all parameters (including fecundity) use the same scale and only the possible cells are filled (Figure A-2). Harvesting Simulations To understand the potential effects of harvesting, simulations using matrix models can be carried out. For example, the effects of harvesting at increasing intensities can be simulated by systematically reducing the survival probabilities for adult stages. In my simulations of harvesting lriartea I monitored the effects on A values of reducing the probability of survival in the last two stages by increments of 10% up to a continuou s harvest of 100%. In a second test, I reduced the number of adults over 15 m tall from the observed frequencies to O (zero) to simulate a one-time total harvest in each forest type. Then I repeatedly multiplied the revised distribution by the transition matrix until the original number of adults over 15 m returned. Using similar techniques, managers can detertnine appropriate harvesting levels in a given setting, based on the distribution of stages observed Peters (1992) used similar techniques to simulate the effects of fruit harvesting on A.

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181 Matrix Models and Sustainable Harvesting Determining replacement rates for managed NTFP populations is essential for developing plans for sustainable harvesting. Matrix models provide an indication of this rate through the value of lambda (A). Changes in the value of A reflect potential changes in the population replacement rate, because "A integrates the effect of the environment on the vital rates into a si ngle statistic" (Caswell 1988, 178). In addition to providing an analysis of population change based on A values, matrix models can be useful in studies of sustainable harvesting by revealing the stages of a species that are most sensitive to change in population structure. Knowing the stage most sensitive to change can help in developing guidelines for sustainable harvesting because modest changes in this stage can cause large changes in the projection of future population size Moreover, by using sens itivity and elasticity measures described by Caswell (1989) and others (e. g., Maschinski et al. 1997; McDonald and Caswell 1993), we may identify these stages and focus future research effort on strengthening the quality of measures used to understand growth and regeneration within them as a part of a management plan for harvesting. Basic matrix models assume that transition probabilities remain constant and that environmental fluctuations, including those based on population density, do not affect the outcome of the analysis. Long-lived perennial plants, especially those that grow at high densities in unharvested stand s, are more likely to meet these assumptions than more ephemeral annual plants. For either case, the problem of assumed stability inherent in basic matrix models can be addressed by increasing their complexity.

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182 As Alvarez-Buylla (1994) demonstrated in her study of patch dynamics and density dependence in models of Cecropia obtusifolia in Mexico matrix models can incorporate environmental variation. In her study, matrix models suggested that A was most sensitive to changes in subadults when environmental conditions were held constant (an expected finding since individuals in the subadult stage usually have the greatest reproductive value among all classes), but when patch dynamics were introduced, the model became most sensitive to bottlenecks at the germination stage. Other studies have also broadened the potential application of matrix models. For example, Menges ( 1990) demonstrated techniques for adding environmental stochasticity to a matrix, based on environmental fluctuations that may lead to local extinction or formation of metapopulations, and McDonald and Caswell ( 1993) offered techniques for adding density dependence to matrix models.

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183 size class stage n/ha survival growth (m/yr) % moving % remain fecundity seedlings 0 1000 0 023 0.01 0.03 0.97 .2. 5 m 1 so 0.97 0.06 0.13 0 87 .5-5 m 2 60 0.97 0 3 0 05 0.95 5-lOm 3 20 0.97 0.47 0 09 0 91 10-15 m 4 10 0 975 0.82 0.16 0.84 58 15-20 m 5 20 0.975 0.5 0.10 0.90 200 >20m 6 30 0 975 0.2 0.02 0 98 158 diagonal= remain s urvival seedlings 2. 5 m .5-5m 5-1 Om 10-15m 15-20m >20 m stage O stage 1 stage 2 stage 3 stage 4 stage 5 stage 6 0.02231 0 0 0 58 200 158 0.00069 0.8439 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.1261 0.9215 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0485 0.8827 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0873 0.819 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.156 0 8775 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0975 0 9555 Figure A-1. Life cycle values for survival growth, and fecundity used in calculation of parameters of a matrix model. Size clas s es 1 3 are juveniles; 4-6 are adults. N/ha i s based on the stable stage distribution of a dissected forest. Fecundity rates are based on observations of dissected fores ts

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184 0 0 0 0 .003 .004 013 .02 .119 0 0 0 0 0 0 02 196 0 0 0 0 0 0 .02 .119 0 0 0 0 0 0 .02 .082 0 0 0 0 0 0 .017 .118 0 0 0 0 0 0 .013 .234 Mature Forest A=l 01 0 0 0 0 .005 .006 .011 .022 128 0 0 0 0 0 0 .022 .222 0 0 0 0 0 0 .022 128 0 0 0 0 0 0 .022 094 0 0 0 0 0 0 .017 112 0 0 0 0 0 0 .011 .177 Secondary Forest A= 1.14 0 0 0 0 .002 .007 .011 019 .123 0 0 0 0 0 0 .019 206 0 0 0 0 0 0 .019 .123 0 0 0 0 0 0 .019 082 0 0 0 0 0 0 018 127 0 0 0 0 0 0 .011 .215 Dissected Forest A= 1. 003 Figure A-2 Elasticity matrices for mature, secondary, and dissected forests

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LIST OF REFERENCES Acosta-Solis, M. 1948. Tagua or vegetable ivory--a forest product of Ecuador. Economic Botany 2: 46-57. Alcorn, J.B. 1989. Process as resource: the traditional agricultural ideology of Bora and Huastec resource management and its implications for research. Advances in Economic Botany 7: 6377 Alcorn, J.B. 1990. Indigenous agroforestry strategies meeting farmers' needs. Pages 141-151 in A. B Anderson (ed.) Alternatives to deforestation. Columbia University Press, New York, NY. Alcorn, J.B. 1991. Ethics, economies, and conservation. Pages 317-349 in M L. Oldfield and J.B. Alcorn (eds.) Biodiversity: culture, conservation and ecodevelopment. Westview Press, Boulder, CO. Alder, D and T. J Synnott. 1992. Permanent sample plot techniques for mixed tropical forest Tropical Forestry Papers 25. Oxford University Press, Oxford, England. Allegretti, M. H. 1990. Extractive reserves: an alternative for reconciling development and environmental conservation in Amazonia. Pages 252-264 in A. B. Anderson (ed.) Alternatives to deforestation Columbia University Press, New York, NY Alvarez-Buylla, E R. 1994. Density dependence and patch dynamics in tropical rain forests: matrix models and applications to a tree species. American Naturalist 143 : 155-191. Anderson, A. B. 1990. Deforestation in Amazonia: dynamics, causes, and alternatives Pages 3-23 in A. B. Anderson (ed.) Alternatives to deforestation. Columbia University Press, New York, NY. Anderson, A. B. and D. A. Posey 1989. Management of a tropical scrub savanna by the Gorotire Kayap6 of Brazil. Advances in Economic Botany 7: 78-96. Armson K. A. 1996. Forest certification and Canadian forestry: an overview and update. Forestry Chronicle 72: 591-594. 185

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186 Balee, W. 1994. Footprints of the forest: Ka'apor ethnobotany--the historical ecology of plant utilization by an Amazonian people. Columbia University Press, New York NY. Balick, M. J. and R. Mendelsohn. 1992. Assessing the economic value of traditional medicines from tropical rain forests. Conservation Biology 6: 128-130 Balslev, H., J. L. Luteyn, B. Oligaard, and L.B. Holm-Nielsen. 1987. Comparison and structure of adjacent unflooded and floodplain forest in Amazonian Ecuador. Opera Botanica 92: 37-57. Barfod, A. S., B. Bergmann, and H B .. Pedersen. 1990. The vegetable ivory industry: surviving and doing well in Ecuador. Economic Botany 44: 293-300. Bernard, H. R. 1994. Research methods in anthropology: qualitative and quantitative approaches, 2nd edition Sage Publications, Thousand Oaks, CA. Berner, P. 0. B. 1992. Effects of slope on the dynamics of a tropical montane oak bamboo forest in Costa Rica. Ph.D dissertation University of Florida. Gainesville, FL Blaikie, P. and H. Brookfield. 1987. Defining and debating the problem. In P. Blaikie and H. Brookfield (eds.) Land degradation and society Methuen, New York, NY Bonham, C D 1989. Measurements for terrestrial vegetation. Wiley, New York, NY. Boom, B. M. 1989. Use of plant resources by the Chacobo. Advances in Economic Botany 7: 78-96 Bosch, C. A 1971. Redwoods: a population model. Science 172 : 345-349. Bromley, D. W. 1989. Economic interests and institutions. Basil Blackwell, New York ,, NY Browder, J. 0 1992. Social and economic constraints on the development of market oriented extractive reserves in Amazon rain forests Advances in Economic Botany 9: 33-41. Buenavista, G. and C. B Flora 1994. Participatory methodologies for analyzing household activities, resources, and benefits. Pages 36-44 in H. S. Feldstein and J. Jiggins (eds ) Tools for the field: methodologies handbook for gender analysis in agriculture Kumarian Press, West Hartford, CT.

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202 Welden, C W., S W. Hewett, S. P. Hubbell, and R. B Foster. 1991. Sapling survival, growth, and recruitment: relationship to canopy height in a neotropical forest. Ecology 72: 35-50. Whitmore, T. C. 1989. Canopy gaps and the two major groups of forest trees. Ecology 70: 536-538. Willers, B. 1994. Sustainable development: a new world deception. Conservation Biology 8: 1146-1148. Wollenberg, E. K. 1994. Selecting methods of time allocation research. Pages 172-178 in H. S. Feldstein and J. Jiggins (eds.) Tools for the field: methodologies handbook for gender analysis in agriculture. Kumarian Press, West Hartford, CT Wood, P. J. 1996. Sustainable fores try and certification in the Commonwealth Forestry Chronicle 72: 599-601. World Commission on Environment and Development. 1987. Our common future Oxford University Press, Oxford, England.

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BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH As the youngest child in a family of nine in rural Mississippi, Patti Anderson found that rapid change characterized her family's physical and social environment as their plumbing facilities moved indoors and eventually the gravel road in front of her house was paved. Much of her learning came from observing the experiences of siblings in a rapidly-changing context. For example, Patti heard an older sister talk about not winning a scholarship sponsored by the factory in which their father worked because this sister admitted in the interview that she wanted to become a doctor, rather than a nurse. Patti then won the same scholarship 19 years later and was told she could become anything she put her mind to. The two decades had brought irrevocable changes in sex roles, race relations, and economic development to a region that in her parents' youth seemed likely to remain a virtual colony in which cheap labor and raw materials could be exploited by the dominant society. Although neither of her parents graduated from high school, both believed strongly in the importance of education and inspired curiosity about wild plants and animals in the woods and the domesticated ones in their fields. Before Patti was old enough for school, her father patiently taught her the alphabet and games with numbers. The time with him more than compensated for the lack of kindergarten classes in the local public schools. 203

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204 Patti's high school biology teacher was another strong influence who exemplified the need for change in the social system. This teacher had been a graphic artist until the desire to become a doctor led her to return to college. When she applied to medical school, she was told that although her qualifications were excellent, she would be 40 by the time she finished medical school--much too old to have resources wasted on her. She became a high school teacher instead and shared her enthusiasm for the natural world with students in a country high school where there were no science fairs, no science clubs, and few opportunities for experiments in science classes. Although Patti began college studies at Rice University with the goal of majoring in biology and psychology to become an expert in physiological influences on mental illness, she soon found that classes in the social sciences helped her organize her experiences growing up in the South and understand the pressures for social and political change during the 1960s and 1970s. Patti's interests in these topics led her to concentrate on sociology rather than biology. She received her B.A. degree from Rice in 1973. She continued her studies at Boston University and received an M.A. in sociology in 1975 During her first job as a sociologist for the New York City Human Rights Commission, she took a programming course for fun and discovered a talent for solving computer problems. Patti found exciting and rewarding work in this field first in business, then government, then as a self-employed computer consultant. Eventually, she returned to social science and spent seven years as a Senior Information Systems Associate with a not-for-profit social research organization that designs national demonstration projects to evaluate models for encouraging self-sufficiency among

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economically disadvantaged people. Unfortunately, she found little change in the opportunities available to poor people during the past decade. 205 When Patti was 40 she decided to give biology a second chance. After studying botany at the New York Botanical Garden and receiving an M.A. in Biological Sciences from Lehman College, she moved to Florida to study ecology at the University of Florida with the hope of combining her interests in biological and social processes to better understand their intersections in conservation and economic development. She was particularly interested in understanding tropical ecosystems where rapid changes in the social and ecological variables impinge on personal choices and biological possibilities. She hopes to find work in this field and make a contribution to the conservation of tropical forests.

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I certify that I have read th i s s tudy and that in my opi nion it confo r 111s t o acceptable s t a ndar ds of scholarly prese ntation and i s ~ adeq u a t e, in scope and quality. as a dis se rtat ion fo r the deree of D octo r of Phil srn-.h F ancis E. Putz Chair Pro fessor of B ota n y I certify that I ha\ e read this s tudy and th a t in my opi ni on i t con for 111 s to a ccept ab l e standards of scholarly p r esen tati o n a nd i s fully adequate, in scope and ~ality. as a dissertation for the degree of Doctor of Phil osophy.,.....__ '., t'f+..Kimberl yn Assistant Profe sso r of B ota n y I certify that I ha\e read this study and tha in m y opi nion it conforr11s to acce ptable sta nd ards of scholarly presentation an is f ull y a Q.eQuate in scope and qual~ty. as a di sse rtati on fo r the degree of Doctor of Philo~hy J._) ~ rhl-~ rf1 L Wig s t on Re sea rch Profe sso r o f B o tan y I certify that I ha\ e read this st udy and that in my opi nion it confo1111s to acceptable s t a ndar ds o f schola rl y p re se ntation and is fully adequate, in sco pe and qu al ity. as a dis se rtat io n for the degree of D octo r of Philo s hy. Marianne C Schmink Profe ssor o f Anthropology I c ertify that I have rea d thi s s tudy and that in my opinion it confo11r1s to acceptable s tandard s o f schola rl y presentation and is fully adequat i s~"" a cl quality, as a di sse rtati o n fo r the degree of D octo r of PhilosoP, ~ -----t~ C Clyde F Kiker Profe ssor of F ood and Re so urce Economic s This dissertation was s ubm i tted to the Graduate Faculty of the Department of Botany in the C o l lege of L ibe ral Art s and Science s and to the Graduate School and was accepted as partial fulfillment of t he requ i rements for the degree o f Do cto r of Philosophy. May 1998 Dean, Graduate School

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