Wheat situation

2.0 8


THE


SITUATION


BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


AUGUST 1941


WS-58


WHEAT: SOURCES OF U. S. SUPPLY. 1923-41


1923 1925 1927 1929 1931 1933 1935 1937 1939 1941
YEAR BEGINNING JULY are.a 31Z


*IMPORTS FOR DOMESTIC UTILIZATION


A 1923-53 INCLUDES SOME NEW WHEAT


Total 1941 supplies in the United States are the largest on record. The United States began
its 1941-42 maftting year with the largest carry-over and the second largest crop in its history.



WHEAT: DISTRIBUTION OF U. S. SUPPLY, 1923-40
BUSHELS
(MILLItONS)
Stocks. June 30O
1,500 Exports'
Total supply Fed by growers
Seed
1,200 Foods and commercial feeds


900
S -




300
300-- ------- -- -



1923 1925 1927 1929 1931 1933 1935 1937 1939 1941
YEAR BEGINNING JULY M"E a'l*
*I*1*7 INCLUDES SOME NEW WHEAT INCLUDES FLOUR MILLED FROM DOMESTIC WHEAT ONLY tPRELIMIARY
The quantity of wheat used domastioally and exported in 1940-41 mws about the sam as in 1939-40.
The oarry-Over on June 30, 1941, however, wn Inoreased by about 100 million bushels, chiefly as the
result of the large 1940 crop. The quantity for use ea feed and seed in 1941-42 is expected to be smae-
what reduced while that for food about unchanged. Exports are expected to remain at low levels.


BUSHELS
(mLLIONS)

1.500


1.200


900


600


300


0


PRELIMINARY


J/










-2-


1Malt s Bpply and distribution In eoatirntal United Stats, 1923-41


SStooks July 1 : 1 1
Ssn merchant I I I
SIn od s mills and a a I Imports T,
Tear beginning Jly n farms Cmeroal a elevators l o ew rop I (f~ Mr
I andr s mLdll1 stooks an_ ad ftored Tt Ins-luded) '/ '
a s a a for others a 8 1

With new wheat in ocaer- a 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
oial and merohant 111 a bushels bushels bushels bushels. bushels bushels bushels
stocks
1923 .................. 36,29 37,117 28,956 51,000 132,312 759,482 14,678 906,372
1924 ..................1 29,349 36,626 38,112 33,000 137,067 841,617 304 979.008
1926 ................... 28,638 25,287 28,900 25,576 108,401 668,700 1,747 778,848
1926 ................... 27,071 29,501 16,148 27,605 100,226 832,213 77 S32,515
1927 ................... 26,640 21,776 21.052 40,038 109,506 875,069 188 984.768
1928 ...................a 19,588 19,277 38,587 54,920 112,372 914,373 91 1,026.836
1929 ...................a 45,106 41,546 90,442 51,279 228,573 8235217 53 1,061,643
1930 ................... 60,216 60,166 109,327 59,170 288,879 886,470 364 1,17.,705
1951 .................... 57,887 30,252 203,967 41,202 313,288 941,674 7 1,254,969
1932 .................... 93,769 41,585 188,406 71,714 375,473 756,927 10 1,152,410
1935 ...................s 82,882 64,293 125,712 107,062 377,959 651,685 183 929,775
1954 ................... 62,516 48,128 80,648 83,114 274,306 626,595 4/ 15,89 816,268
1935 ...................... 44,339 30,894 21,951 49,524 146,708 626,344 34,617 807,889
1936 .................. 43,988 21,908 25,202 60,690 141,688 626,766 34,455 802,909
1937 .................... 21,851 11,530 16,197 52,899 102,477 875,676 634 978,787
1938 ...................: 59,113 50,620 28,5533 54,214 172,280 931,702 271 1,104.263
1939 ................... 90,572 36,631 81,334 85,029 293,366 751,436 263 1,046,064
1940 ..................: 85,146 33,618 87,325 90,964 295,063 816,698 3,523 1,115,274
1941 .................... 89,097 73,240 151,896 93,882 408,115 952,997 -- 1,361.112
With only old wheat in all:
stocks positions:
1937 .................... 21,861 11,550 9,022 5/403,99 82,802 875,676 634 959.112
1938 ............***..... 59,113 30,620 22,190 40,791 152,714 931,702 271 1,084,667
1939 ...................: 90,372 36,631 64,103 / 61,064 252,160 751,435 263 1,003,868
1940 .................. 85,146 33,618 84,189 /80,650 281,603 816,698 3,523 1,101,824
1941 ................: 89,097 73,240 142,671 /81,598 386,606 952,997 1,339,603

DISTRIBUTION
SExports and shipment 3/ Dmestio disappearance
Year a F l o a Feed i(fd a : a Stooks
begiining Bparport Eporte Shipmea : : on fa s Foods and : j P 30
July (beat flour u (flour in-. Total Seed of eat ameral Total
l, 7) heat oluded)/ growers) e ds 2
With new wheat in : 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
omneroial and nr- : bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bshl
chant mill stocks$ t
1925 ................ 78,793 67,213 2,973 148,979 74,111 69,670 476,525 620,306 157,087
1924 ............... 195,490 69,478 2,871 257,839 79,895 55,727 477,146 612,768 108,401
1925 ............... 65,189 31,428 2,741 97,368 78,828 28,214 474,223 681,265 100,225
1926 .............o. 156,250 49,761 5,082 200909 85,264 34,261 496,391 613,916 109,806
1927 ......... ...... 145,999 46,228 2,692 193,919 89,864 44,507 544,091 678,462 112,572
1928 ............... 105,114 38,106 3,172 144,392 83,665 56,566 613,842 664,071 228,373
1929 ............... 92,175 48,179 2,983 143,537 85,355 68,769 477,306 619,427 288,879
1930 ..............a 76,365 36,063 2,860 115,278 80,886 157,188 609,063 747,157 513,288
191 ................. 96,521 26,376 2,767 125,654 80,049 173,991 499,802 763,842 575,473
1932 ................ 20,887 10,979 5,023 34,889 83,613 124,912 511,167 719,582 377,939
1933 ............... 18,800 6,798 2,779 28,377 77,832 72,261 476,999 627,092 274.306
1934 ................ 3,019 7,512 2,783 13,314 82,685 83,700 489,961 656,246 146,708
1935 ................ 311 5,896 2,889 7,096 87,555 85,168 488,162 668,886 141,688
1936 ................. 3,168 6,099 2,996 12,263 96,595 88,272 503,304 688,169 102,477
1957 .............. 83,740 16,320 3,321 103,381 94,146 112,860 496,120 703,126 172,280
1938 ...............o 84,589 22,067 2,888 109,534 75,454 125,591 500,308 701.353 293,366
1939 ..............: 23,636 21,232 3,475 48,345 72,855 91,487 537.326 701,668 295,053
1940 ................. 10,810 22,841 /(3,600) 37,251 74,713 100,408 494,787 669,908 408,115
With only old wheat ini
all stocks positions:
1937 ...............: 83,740 16,320 3,321 103,381 94,146 112,860 496,011 7C3,017 152,714
1938 ..............: 84,589 22,067 2,888 109,534 75,464 125,591 521,948 72",993 252,160
1939 ................ 23,636 21,232 3,475 48,343 72,853 91,467 509,572 673,912 281,603
1940 ................: 10,810 22,841 6/(3,600) 37,251 74,713 100,408 502,846 677,967 586,606
Division of Statistical ad toral Research, Bureau of Agricultural Economiso.
1/ 1923 to 1926 Bradstreet's, excluding country elevator stocks.
2/ Stocks in merchant mills and elevators 1923 and 1924 estimated in absence of actual figures; 1925-40, Bureau of Census
figures raised to represent all merchant mills. Stored for others 1923-29, estimated in absence of actual figures; 1950-40,
Bureau of Census figures raised to represent all merchant mills.
SFrom reports of Foreign and Donestio Commerce of the United States. Imports include full-duty wheat, wheat paying a duty
of 10 percent ad valorem, and dutiable flour in teras of wheat; and exclude flour free for export as follows: 42,742 bushels
in 1935-36; 108,095 bushels in 1937-38; 363,263 bushels in 1938-39; 213,930, 1939-40; and 169,670, 1940-41. Exports include
only flour made from domestic wheat; 1923-35 estimated on basis of total exports less wheat imported for milling in bond and
export adjusted for changes in carry-over; beginning 1935, figures for exports and shipments of flour wholly from United States
wheat.
/ Includes durum wheat returned from Montreal, estimated at 1,500,0OC bushels.
For 1937 excludes new wheat estimated at 12,500,000 bushels; for 1938 excludes 13,423,000 bushels; for 1939, 23,975,C000
shels; for 1940, 10,314,000 bushels; and for 1941, 12,384,000 bushelsereported as new wheat by Bureau of Census.
6/ Shipments are to Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands (Virgin Islands prior to December 31, 1934, included with
domestio exports). 1940 estimated in absence of official figures.
Balancing item.
For individual items, see supply section of this table.







WS-58


--- ------ --lw -------- ---
THE WHEAT SITUATION
Including rye
-~~I--------~~~~-------------------

(Suraer Outlook Issue)


: Farmers are now making plans for the seeding of
: winter wheat to be harvested in 1S42. This issue of
: The 1-.eat Situation, therefore, has been prepared with :
: particular reference to the outlook for the wheat crop :
: to be seeded this fall.


Summary of the Outlook for the 1942 7Theat Crop

World wheat supplies in 1942 are expected to remain at high levels -

with trade restricted and export prices lov. In the United States, wheat

prices are expected to continue well above the export price-level of other

surplus producing countries, with the Government loan program as the prin-

cipal price-supporting influence.

Present indications are that the acreage seeded to wheat for harvest

in 1942 for the country as a whole will about equal the national acreage

allotment under the Agricultural Adjustment Act of 55 million acres. With

marketing quotas in effect, actual seedings for 1942 probably will not dif-

fer materially fro-i the allotted acreage.

If the total -.-,eat seedir~.turn out to be about 55 million acres and

average yields are obtained, production will total about 650 million bushels,

or about 20 million bushels below probable domestic utilization* This re-

duction, together with such exports as we may have, would moderately reduce

by the end of the 1942-43 marketing year the very large carry-over of about

640 million bushels in prospect July 1, 1942.


- 3 -







AUGUST 1941 4 -

S'ouirLnxy of the Situationi for the 1940 .Wheat Crop

Domestic heat prices are hirhar than a month ago. General optimism

in speculative :-arkets, the advcJ-ce in cor'odity prices generally, and in-

creased buying by millers and bakers have caused prices to ac'varce to-ard

loan values earlier this year than in the other years in which the loan

program was in effect.

The domestic wheat supply for the year eciin-.ing July 1, 1941 is

now indicated to be 1,340 rilliorn bushels, consisting of an indicated crop

of about 953 million bv'shels and a carry-over of old heat of 387 million

bushels The indicated supply is about 240 million bushels above the

supply a year ago and about 100 million bushels larger than the record

high in 1931. Domestic disappearance in 1941-42 is now. estimated at about

670 million bushels. The quantity of exports is very uncertain because

of unsettled conditions.

Total world Tl.sat supplies 1/ in 1941-42 are expected again to be

of record size. Cn the basis of present indications, the crop is about 50

million bushels larger this year than last. World wheat stocks on July 1

vere at a new high for that date. Increases in stocks in Canada, the

United States, and the Argentine more than offset reductions in Australia,

Europe, and 7orth Africa. On the basis of reseit crop prospects in the

four overseas vdieat surplus countries (United States, Ca.iada, Argentina,

and Australia) and curtailed world trade, surpluses are expected to be

greatly increased in these overseas countries a year -.ence.

-- A:ugust 2C, 1Cl4

l7 All reference;s to world acreage, production, and stocks exclude t.e
U.S.S.R. and China.








-5-


ESTIMATED WHEAT STOCKS IN FOUR MAJOR EXPORTING COUNTRIES
AS OF JULY 1, 1922-41. AND INDICATION FOR 1942


1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942
INCLUDES CANADIAN WHEAT IN UNITED STATES t PRELIMINARY NEG 21335
INCLUDES UNITED STATES WHEAT IN CANADA f ADVANCE INDICATIONS


Figure 1


July 1 wheat stocks in the four overseas exporting countries in 1941 reached
the highest levels on record, being about double the 10-year average, 1931-40. Stocks
an July 1, 1942 are expected to reach new record levels.



estimated wheat stocks in four major exporting countries, as of about July 1, 1922-41, and indication for 1942
Tear Unit d ste a Cani : s gentina Australia Total
grain I I groin2l : t
i Klllion bushels KMillion bushels Million bushels Million bushels Million bushels
1922 110 52 82 29 273
1923 134 47 67 42 290
9137 71 79 38 325
19 s 111 T3 37 271
192 101 85 27 277
1927 : 111 69 89 4 315
1928 115 128 107 43 393
1929 232 152 155 47 586
1931 157 94 77 6
1932 391 160 73 58 682
1933 382 237 98 70 787
1934 274 221 14 102 741
19 147 225 106 T0
193 1442 155 L3 54 24
1937 5 83 52 624
1938 153 36 98 63 350
1939 253 119 263 700
19 282 320 102 13 840
1941 / 386 511 180 78 1.155
1942 VJ 640 490 265 125 1.520
Division of Statistical and Sistorical Research, Borean of Agricultural X eeosics. Compiled as followas
United States teocke en farms, in country mills and elevators, commercial, in merchant ills and slevaters, and stored for others by
merchant mills.
Canada 1922-23, carry-vTr August 31, plus net exports and estimated retention of flour during July sad August; beginning 1924, carry-
ever July 31. plus set exports and estimated retention of flour for July.
Argentina Carry-over on December 31. plus exports and estimated domestic consumption, July 1 to December 31.
Australia 1922-24. exports only plai *stimated domestic consumption; beginning 1925, July 1 to December 31, carry-over on December 1,
plus set exports and **timate domeStie consumpti e July 1 to November 30.

Y1 llaldes .United State* wheat in Canada. Includes small quantities of nov bat prier to 1937. 2 Includes Canadian wheat in the United
stes. / Prelilminary. Indicatean.















ALL WHEAT: ACREAGE, YIELD. AND PRODUCTION.
UNITED STATES. 1919-41


1919 1923 1927 1931 1935 1939
DEAU FOR A4D ARE PRELIMINARY YE P t

Pigure 2

The total heat aorege seeded for harvest in 1941 wm 2 percent less
than that seeded for the previous crop and the ame as seeded for the 1989
crop. Homwevr, the 1939-41 acreages represented a very large reduction from
seeding for the 1937 and 1938 crops, which wore the largest in our history.
The large production in 1941 reflects very high yelds.


All wheat Acreage seeded, yield per asre, and
production, United States, 1919-41


Yea TYield s
er t Seeded per odution
Saoreage seeded oduto
hardest I acre t
1 1,000 1,000
o mres Bushels bushels

1919 77,440 12.3 962,097

1920 6 7,977 12.4 843,277
1921 67,681 12.1 818,964
1922 a 67,163 12.6 846,649
1923 a 64,590 11.8 759,482
1924 55,706 15.1 841,617
s
1925 61,738 10.8 668,700
1926 60,712 13.7 832,213
1927 : 65,661 13.3 875,059
1928 71,152 12.9 914,373
1929 66,840 12.3 823,217

1930 1 67,150 13.2 886,470
1931 1 65,998 14.3 941,674
1932 6 65,913 11.5 756,927
1933 S 68,485 8.1 551,683
1934 1 63,562 8.3 626,393
I
1935 1 69,207 9.1 626,344
1936 t 73,724 8.5 626,766
1937 t 81,072 10.8 875,676
1938 a 79,565 11.7 931,702
1939 a 63,516 11.8 751,436

1940 62,367 13.1 816,696
1941 I/ 63.603 16.0 960,953



Division of Staistical and Historical Research, Bureau of Agricultural Eoonomice.
Data from the Agricultural Marketing Service.
I/ Preliminary.











WINTER WHEAT: ACREAGE. YIELD. AND
PRODUCTION. UNITED STATES. 1919-41

-ACREAE EED
ACRAG SD PRECED1\I FALL


ACRES
Smu.os)s


SO



40



30
BUSHELS



16



12



8
BUSHELS
WILLIC"$)


800



400


PER SEEDED AC

Ii


- ----- -


AA


2


- 17Y777

s I i


/


-


PRODUCTION








LL 1 1 J-LL _1- LI I


1919


1927 1931
DATA FOR 1I41 AfR PRILIIWNARY


1939
1Iu 5ItT


Winter heats Acreage seeded, yield per acre, end
production, United Statea, 1919-41


Year s Yield
f Seeded a per : fodution
h rvest oareage s eeded
&wre
S 1,000 1,000
aores Bushels bushels
1919 a 51,391 14.6 748,460
1920 46,506 13.5 615,227
1921 45,479 13.3 602,793
1922 47,415 12.1 571,459
1925 45,408 12.2 555,299
1924 3 58,638 14.8 573,563
1925 40,922 9.0 400,619
1926 40,604 15.6 651,607
1927 44,154 12.4 548,188
1928 48,451 12.0 579,066
1929 43,967 13.3 586,239
1930 45,032 14.1 633,605
1951 45,647 18.1 825,396
1952 4,371 11.5 491,795
1933 44,445 8.5 376,518
1934 44,585 9.8 437,963
1955 47,064 9.9 465,319
1936 49,766 10.4 519,874
1937 57,656 11.9 685,824
1938 56,539 12.2 688,133
1939 46,464 12*3 569,741
1940 45,820 15.4 589,151
1941 a 46,271 14.8 684,966


Division of Statistical and Historioal Researoh, Bureau of Agricultural Economios.
Data from the Agricultural Marketing Service.
/ Preliminary.


Figure 3
The 46.3 million aores of winter heat seeded for the 1941 crop Bs 2.5
million acres above seedings for the 1940 crop -- an increase of 5.5 percent.
Yields in 1940 were above average and the crop large.


YIELD


--------~~


11%N













ALL SPRING WHEAT: ACREAGE, YIELD, AND
PRODUCTION. UNITED STATES. 1919-41


1927 1931
DTA Fig 1 40 DAlI PWNINUA
Figure 4


The 17.2 million aores of all spring ihoat seeded for the 1941 orop
was 1.3 million acres below seedings for the 1940 orop a decrease of 7
percent. Even with one of the smallest acreages in recent times, exceptional
growing conditions resulted in a very large 1941 orop.


All Spring Wheat: Acreage seeded, yield per acre, and
production, United States, 1919-41


Year Yield
of Acreage : per du
harvest seeded : seeded g Preduotlio
t_ c_&ore _
S 1,000 1,000
S acres Bushels bushels

1919 s 26,049 7.8 203,637

1920 : 22,472 10.2 250,050
1921 22,202 9.7 216,171
1922 19,748 13.9 275,190
1923 19,102 10.7 204,183
1924 : 17,068 15.7 268,054

1925 a 20,816 13.0 268,081
1926 20,108 10.0 200,606
1927 21,527 15.2 526,871
1928 22,721 14.8 335,307
1929 22,873 10.4 236,978

1930 s 22,118 11.4 252,865
1931 s 20,351 5.7 116,278
1932 22,542 11.8 265,152
1933 : 24,040 7.3 175,166
1934 t 18,977 4.7 88,430

1935 a 22,143 7.3 161,025
1936 23,959 4.6 106,892
1937 23,416 8.1 189,852
1938 23,026 10.6 243,569
1939 s 17,062 10.7 181,694

1940 18.547 12.3 227,547
1941 a 17,232 16.4 265,987



Division of Statistical and historical Research, Bureau of Agricultural Eoonomios.
Data from the Agricultural Marketing Service.
1/ Preliminary.


.f .T.O









WHEAT: ACREAGE. YIELD. AND PRODUCTION. WORLD
(EXCLUDING U.S.S.R. AND CHINA), 1923-40


1923 1925 1927 1929 1931 1933 1935 1937 1939 194
ACREAGE HARVESTED EXCEPT IN UNITED STATES. CANADA. AND AROENTINA N. 34555
DATA FOR 1940 ARE PRELIMINARY
Figure 5
During the 1934-36 period world wheat yields were considerably below
average and production small. In more recent years large Orope have resulted
not only from large acreages but high yields as well. A small reduction in
acreage took place in 1941.


Wheats Estimated acreage, yield, and production, world
(excluding U.S.S.R. and Chin4 1923-40

Yea.r of Acreage / Yield Production
harvest Y : per more
S Million mIillion
: ores Bushels bushels

1923 236 15,0 3,555

1924 229 15.7 3,143

1925 241 14.1 3,396

1926 a 245 14.3 3,504

1927 250 14.7 3,683

1928 266 15.1 4,005

1929 a 259 13.8 3,582

1930 a 268 14.5 3,894

1931 266 14.6 3,877

1932 a 272 14.3 3,876

1933 s 274 14.0 3,848

1954 s 267 13.3 5,661

1935 a 269 13.4 3,602

1936 s 279 12.8 3,584

1937 / :289 13.4 3,879

1938 3/ 292 15.9 4,638

1939 / 274 15.6 4,286

1940 / 270 14.9 4,017


Division of Statistical and Historioal Research, Bureau of Agricultural Eoonomios.
1 Refers to year of harvest in Northern Hemisphere, although it includes data for
he Southern Hemisphere where the harvest ends early the following year.
2/ Acreage harvested except the United States, Canada, and Argentina.
V/ Preliminary.







AUGUST 1941


- 10 -


OUTLOOK FOR TEE 1942 W .rEAT CROP

BAC:'.Tr-C'nD 2/.- The acreage seeded to wheat for harvest in
lfIl in t..e United States was 63.5 million acres, 2 per-
cent more than the 62.C million acres seeded for harvest;
in 1940, and the same as was seeded for the 1939 crop. Fow-
ever, the 1939-41 acreages represent a very large reduction
from seedings for the 1937 and 1S38 crops, -hen 81.1 ard
79.6 million acres, respectively, ~ere seeded the largest
in the history of the country (tables, fig. 2-4). There
were no national acreage allotments operative in 1937 and
1930. In 1939 the allotment was 55 million acres, in 1940
and 1941, 62 million acres.

World tAeat acreage 3/ increased steadily over a
period of years until in 1958 it reached 2c2 million acres.
During the past 2 years it has declined, but at 270 million
acras estimated for 1940, it was still at high levels com-
pared with the acreage in the 20's (table, fig. 5). World
production 3/ for a number of years did not increase with
the upward Trend in acreage, however, because of small
yieldr pe" acre In 1938 and 1939 yields viere very high
and the la-gest world crops in history were produced. In
both of these years production exceeded consumption, and
world car.'-over stocks 3/ on July 1, 1940 v'rere the largest
in history.

World trade in -wheat and flour declined sharply fol-
lowing the peak year 1928-29, largely as the result of
drastic restrictions .11 imports and increased production in
major importing countries. In the early part of this period,
exports from the United States declined with those from
other surplus-producing countries. During the period 1934-
35 to 1936-37, snall crops in the United States were follow-
ed by net ir.piorts (table 8). World wheat and flour e::ports
in 1937-38 were about 518 million bushels, in 1938-39 about
638 million bushels, and in 193S-40 about 620 million
bushels. With reduced shipping in 1940-41, as the result
of the blockade and other conditions, exports of vwheat and
flour declined to about 450 million bushels. Tet exports
from the United States in 1937-38 vere 99 million bushels,
in 1938-39 they were 106 million bushels, in 1939-40, 45
million bushels, and in 194C-41 they -were down to 34 million
bushels.

The acreage allotted for seeding the 1942 crop under the Agricultural
Adjustment Act is 55 million acres. This is 7 million acres smaller then
the allotment in each of the 2 preceding years, when actual seedings exceeded

2/ See also background statements on pages 12 and 17 *
5/ All references to world acreage, production, and stocks exclude the
U. S. S. R. and China.







*WS-58


the allotments. However, with marketing quotas in effect for the first time,
and the likelihood that many farmers with penalty wheat will reduce their
acreage below their allotments in order to market such wheat in 1942-43 with-
out penalty, it is very probable that the actual seedings in 1942 will not
differ materially from the allotment.

If the total wheat seedings for harvest in 1942 turn out to be about
55 million acres, and the 20-year (1921-40) avei*.ge yield per seeded acre of
11.8 bushels is obtained, production will total about 650 million bushels.
This would be about 20 million bushels below probable domestic utilization,
and the very large carry-over on July 1, 1942, forecast at about 640 million
bushels, would be reduced by the end of the 1942-43 year by this quantity
and by any exports which take place in 1942-43.

The annual average yields per seeded acre in the United States usually
vary betr'een about 10 and 14 bushels. A 10-bushel yield on 55 million acres
would result in a crop about 120 million bushels short of probable domestic
utilization. After allovdng for exports, this would leave a carry-over of
about 600 million bushels June 30, 1943 about 140 million bushels less
than on July 1, 1942 but still over 100 million bushels above the stocks on
July 1, 1941. If, however, a yield of 14 bushels is obtained on 55 million
acres, a crop of 770 million bushels would result, vhich would mean that
the carry-over on June 30, 1943 might exceed 700 million bushels.

The only insect seriously menacing the coming winter wheat crop is
the hessian fly. It is present in abundance throughout most of the North
Central States. Weather conditions adverse to the fly, such as prolonged
drought from late August to October, inclusive, can prevent an unusually
great emergence of this pest. The menace can be largely avoided by seeding
winter wheat during the fly-free period (dates may be obtained from State
entomologists or local agricultural agents).

Each year the acreage allotment is adjusted so that with the prospec-
tive carry-over it will provide wheat enough for normal domestic consump-
tion, normal exports, and at least a 30-percent reserve. Since the 55-
million-acre allotment minimum is above the level necessary to provide this
objective, above-normal reserves will continue a definite part of the United
States wheat situation until the world situation again provides a consider-
ably lar-er e.nort market than at preser.t or unless yields per acre should
be materially below average. Under present world conditions an ample carry-
over of wheat is advisable as security against unforeseen emergencies.

It is too early to appraise the probabilities for the 1942 world
wheat crop, but it now appears that the acreage will be slightly below that
for 1940. The acreage in the United States will probably be reduced from
the present 63-1/2 million acres to about 55 million acres, and the area in
Canada is expected to remain below the high level of 29 million acres
reached in 1940. Some reduction may be anticipated in Australia and
Argentina, but the total acreage for the other countries of the world is not


- 11 -







ALGUST 1941


expected to change much. A 5--peceiot reduction in acreage ,on the 1940
levels would mea n an areage of about 257 million acres. At the 15-year
(1926-40) average yield por acro of 14.3 bushels, su3h an acreage ..ould re-
sult in a crop of 3,675 million bushels. A crop of this size is less than
probable -world cor:urmption in 1C2 e.nd would be expected to reduce the very
large world stocks expected July 1, 19l2O Stccks would be -crther reduced
if hostilities should terminate and shippin: to Fnrope be resumed in IfS42-
43, a situation which would increase consumption from present low levels*
World stocks July 1, 1C42 will be of record size, how-ever, and even though
consum tion exceeds prl-dLction, such reduction as may take place will still
leave a very large carry-over July 1, 1943.

With supplies in 1942-43 likely to continue to be very much larger
than average, international wheat prices are expected to remain at relatively
low levels. g ihat prices in the United States will continue well above
world levels, however, so long as the Covernrent loan program continues. In
the past several y-prs of such loans, prices have been considerably below
loan values during the months shortly before and after harvest, gradually
rising until they approximated the loan rate. A sharp rise in the general
price level and optimistic speculative sentiment 'in commodity markets this
summer have brought an earlier adjustment of prices to loan values for the
1941 crop If a general price rise of sizeable proportions should occur,
it is quite possible that prices -ould be carried to a level considerably
above loan rates, despite large supplies and curtailed c::port markets. Such
prices could prevail as long as farmers, dealers, and speculators in suf-
ficient numbers were willing to carry the surplus wheat at such figures.

THE DrESTIC WHEAT SITUATION FOR TFE 1941 CROP

BACrTJ0UND.- In the 10-year period 1930-09 the carry-over
of ci ;':siet in the United states averaged about 230 million
bushels, and domestic disappearance about 695 million bushels.

Domestic wheat prices from the sprinT of 1933 to the
spring of 1037 were unusually high'in relation to world
prices as the result of small crops in the United States*
In 1937 United States production was large and prices de-
clined. In 1938, .uith domestic production again large, v-ith
a record world crop, and with lower ccmaodity prices gener-
ally, prices again declined, and would have averaged still
lower had it not been for the loan and export-subsidy programs
which held domestic prices above export parity.

Prices received by grovers for wheat during the year
beginning July 1939, averaging 69 cents, continued relative-
ly high compared with the usual relationship to prices in
other countries, as a result of only a moderately largo
carry-over, reduced acreage, poor prospects for 1 40 yields,
and holding of v:heat in expectation of higher prices.


- 12 -






WE-58


- 13 -


Prices advanced sharply in September 1939, following
the outbreak of thq European war, and again in December,
influenced by war developments and by poor crop prospects
in Argentina and the United Stateso In the middle of May
1940, following the turn of events in Europe, selling be-
came heavy and most of the gains were lost. From the middle
of !ay until the middle of August prices declined seasonally,
then they advanced until the middle of November. After de-
clining to the middle of February, they again rose, influenced
by new legislation affecting the loan rates, and are now at
about the highest levels since May 1940.

The 1941 'heat loan rate, based on the July 1 parity
price of wheat, represents an average national loan rate
to farmers of approximately 98 cents per bushel. In 1938-39
the loan averaged 53 cents, in 1939-40, 64 cents, and in
1940-41, 65-1/2 cents. At important terminal markets the
loanvalues for 1941 areas follows: No. 2 Hard Winter at
Kansas City 1.,10 and at Chicago $1.15, No. 2 Red Winter at
St. Louis and at Chicago $1.15, No. 1 Dark Torthern Spring
at Minneapolis $1.15, and Fo. 1 Soft Thite at Portland $1.05.

United States wheat crop estimated 27
million bushels above indication of July 1

A total wheat crop of 951 million bushels was indicated by the Agricul-
tural Marketing Service as of August 1, This is an increase of 27 million
bushels over the production indicated a month earlier, with nearly all of the
increase accounted for by the increase in the spring wheat crop. The mid-
August report indicated a further increase of 2 million bushels in spring
wheat for th3 four States of Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, and
Iontana, which on August 1 accounted for 263 million bushels out of 266
million bushels for United States spring wheat as a whole.' Assuming no
change in le .3-million-bushel spring wheat production for which there was
no mid-August report, a total wheat crop of 953 million bushels would be
indicated. A.crop of this size would be 17 percent above last year's crop
of 817 million bushels and 27-1/2 percent above the 10-year (1930-39) aver-
age of 748 millioi',bushels, The indicated yield per' seeded acre at 15.0
bushels for allr wheat compares with 13.1 bushels a year ago ahd with 11.8
bushels, the 20-year (1921-40) average.

The preliminary estimate of winter wheat production as of August 1
was 685 million bushels, which is larger than last"yearts production of
589 million bushels and the 10-year average of 569 million bushels by 16
percent and 20 percent, respectively. This preliminary estimate shows only
a little increase over a month ago in total winter wheat production. In
Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, where there was heavy crop loss due to exces-
sive rain and delayed harvest, reports from wheat growers as of August 1
indicated still further reduction in production prospects from those indi-
cated a month earlier. This was offset, however, by increases over July 1
indications in some eastern Corn Belt States and in most of the Western
States. In these areas yields at harvest overran earlier expectations.








AUCUST 1941 14 -

An indication of spring Wvieat, including duurum, of 268 million bushels
is 27 million bushels larger than indicated July 1, 40 million bushels more
than the 190 production, and CO million bushels above the 10-year (1930-39)
avcrarco Prodic-tion' oj duruii neat vas indicated at 41 million bushels
compared v:~in 5 million bushc1s la;t year and the 1C--sar cov.-raL: of 28
million L ;:.els. The p-roduction indicated for this yiar is the largest
since 1950. Production of olher spring -t!eat is placed at abcut 227 million
bushlls, an increase of 24 million bushels over the July expectations. Last
year's production v.as 193 million bushels and the 10-year average 150 million
bushels. There was less evidence of danange to other spring Yheat than to
durum duri,; July frame the high temperatures, and record high yields are in
prospect far North Dakoaa, Idaho, and Washington.

United States old-wheat stocks
largest on record

Stocks of old wheat in the United States on July 1, 1941, at the be-
ginning of the new marketing year, are estimated at 387 million bushels,
including 12 million bushels in the insurance reserve (chart and table,
pages 1 and 2). July 1 stocks this year are the largest on record and exceed
the previous high in 1932 by about 25 million bushels. The present estimate
is 7 million bushels more than the forecast in March and 8 million less than
that made in May. Stocks of old wheat on July 1, 1940 totaled 282 million
bushels. Adding the indicated crop to the carry-over gives a domestic
wheat supply for the year begiiming July 1, 1941 of 1,340 million bushels.
This is about 240 million bushels above the supply a year ago and about 100
million bushels larger than the record high in 1931.

The estimated July 1 carry-over of old wheat, current crop indica-
tions and probable 'prospcctiv'.- utilization, by classes, for 1941-42 are
shown in table 1, and for 1940-41 in table 2. The disappearance indicated
for 1941-42 of 670 million bushels is 7 million bushels less than in 1940-
41 because a reduction in acreage will require less vrneat for seed. Ordi-
narily with a higher price level relative to the price of corn there would
be less feeding of wheat. However, with somewhat lover quality of heat
this year compared with the above-average quality last year and with a
probable increase in demand for poultry and livestock feed, the quantity of
wheat fed may not be much different from that in 1940-41. The higher in-
come level expected in 1941-42 may about offset the effect on consumption of
the advance in bread and flour prices, so that human consumption also may
remain about unchanged.

Domestic wheat prices sharply higher

Domestic wheat prices are generally 5 to 11 cents higher than in mid-
July. Cash prices reached about the highest levels since April and May 1940,
and the Chicago May futures are at the highest level since April 1937.
General optimism in speculative markets, the advance in commodity prices
generally, and increased buying by millers and bakers have caused prices to
advance tovrard loan values earlier this year than in the other years in which
the loan program was in effect.






- 15 -


Table 1.- Estimated prospective wheat supplies and probable
distribution by classes for 1941-42


Item


: Hard
: red
: wint
:Milli


Carry-over July 1, 1941 .:bushe
(old wheat): .
Farms and interior mills
and elevators e re r,.oo....: 41
Commercial j,. a ,. ~ eo....,: 73
Merchant mila 1/ ,,o*...*.: 46
Total carr.y- ver o.......: 160
Production 2/:.........O......: 391
Total supply 5..........: 551
Prospectivejutilization ......: 275
Available dor carry-over,
insurance stocks, and export : 276


: Soft : Hard : :
: red- : red : Durum : White : Total
er: winter: spring:::
on Million Million Million Million Million
ls bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels


21
12
9
42
226
258
208


69
50
17
366
201
133
100


237


14
3
6
23
93
S116
59


162
143
82
387
953
1,340
670


57 670


- B- eau of C u "
1/ Bureau of Cnsus fiAes i.ed to represent all merchant mills. Includes
stored for others as we ll as oined "'heat in merchant mills and elevators.
2/ August estimate. .

Table 2.- Estimated prospective wheat supplies and
-distribution by classes for 1940-41


Item


: Hard :
:red :
: winter:


Carry-over July 1, 1940
(old wheat):
Farms and interior mills
and elevators ............:
Commercial 3-,oO...o......:
Merchant n*.l.s / cl.....:
Total c Yr *'.- 1o ..
Production .*...As.=ao......o:
Total supply on.........:
Net exports and shipments 2/ .
Carry-over June 30, 1941
(old wheat) ...............:
Apparent disappearance / ....:


1,il .ion
bur.hols


43
39
53
135

450
6

160
284


Soft :
red
winter:


Hard :
red : Durum
spring;:


Million Million millionn
bushels bushels bushels


* 186
4

25
220

3

42
200


35
34
14
83
161
244
1

136
107


19

,3
18
36
54


26
28


: White


: Total


Million Million
bushels bushels


13
2
6
21
85
106
24

23
59


117
84
81
282
817
1,099
34

387
678


1/ Bureau of Census fir;-es raised to represent all merchant mills and
elevators Includes stored for others as well as owned wheat in merchant
mills and elevators.
2/ From reports of Foreign and Domestic Commerce of the United States. Ex-
ports include only flour made from domestic wheat. Shipments are to Alaska,
Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands.
3/ Balancing item.


T


i i i iiiii


___ _-O.


-- U~


---


-I-I-


--


iS -58







AUGUST 1C41


On August 25 the price of December futures at Chicago -was at about
loan levels, while cash prices were below loan values as follows: Hard
winter at Kansas City 3 cents, red winter at St. Louis also 3 cents, dark
northern sprinJ at il'.nnoapolis 10 cents, and soft white at Portland 10
cents. Prices of domestic spring vweat at Buffalo were about 5 cents higher
than the price of Canadian heat of comparable quality, c.i.f., duty paid,
at the same market. Large-quantity imports are being prevented by import
quota restrictions on v.heat and flour. 4/

The likelihood that a very large quantity of wheat would be held off
the market this year has been an important price factor since the time that
legislation was introduced to raise the loan rates on the new crop. It now
appears that the quantity of the 1941 crop to be placed under Government
loan may be sufficient to cause :-heat prices to advance above loan values.
Of the 387 million bushels of old wheat carried over .on July 1, 1941, 170
million bushels were in the Government pool and 12 million bushels in in-
surance stocks, leaving about 200 million bushels free wheat for sale or
nornovernmental storage. Adding an indicated crop of about 950 million
bushels makes a total supply of about 1,150 million bushels. Considering
that about 150 million bushels are used on farms where grown for seed, feed,
and food, about 500 million bushels by flour mills and about 100 million
bushels for inventories and in transit from the close of the 1941-42 market-
ing year to the time that the 1943 crop will be used (a total of 750 million
bushels), a supply of 1,150 million bushels would be only 400 million
bushels in excess of needs. There were 278 million bushels placed under
loan out of the 1940 crop, or about 43 percent of that part of the crop not
actually used on farms where grown. If a similar percentage of the 1941
crop is placed under the loan the quantity would total about 350 million
bushels. 1.ihile much depends upon whether prices advance to attractive levels
above loan rteo while farmers are considering placing their wheat under
loans, present indications are that 350 million bushels may be on the low
side. Moreover, there is always considerable nongovernmental holding, so
that wheat held off the market by governmental loans and by private storage
may well exceed 350 million bushels.














4/ Stateient in "The liheat Situation", June, 1941, page 9.


- 16 -









Table 3.- Weighted average cash price of wheat, specified markets
and dates, 1940-41
:All classes: No. 2 : No. 1 :lo. 2 Hard : No. 2 : Soft
Month :ad grades :Hard Winter:Dk.N.Spring:Amber Durum: Red Winter: White
and drd
ad :six markets:Kansas City:Minneapolis:Minneapolis: St. Louis :Portland 1/
date :1l0 :19 :1 :1940 :191 :Q9Lo :194L1 :1940 :19.1 :1940 :1941 :1940 :1941
:Cer.ts Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
Month -
May : 96.8 93.8 94.7 90.4 100.7 98.4 88.6 94.9 104.3 96.7 78.1 79.4
June : 78.3 98.0 76.3 97.3 82.3 101.0 73.9 101.1 87.4 101.6 72.4 88.5
July : 72.4 98.7 70.7 98.3 78.8 100.4 77.4 99.3 75.8 103.1 73.5 86.5
Week ended -:
July 5 : 73.8 99.6 72.5 98.3 80.5 102.2 79.2 101.5 77.1 102.4 72.8 89.2
12 : 72.2 100.6 70.3 99.2 80.4 103.7 79.8 101.9 75.8 104.4 72.9 88.1
19 : 71.3 97.2 68.1 96.8 78.5 98,8 76.4 99.2 75.2 102.9 74.1 84.3
26 : 71.5 96.9 68.3 98.4 76.7 98.2 75.5 96.5 74.8 102.8 73.8 85.2
Aug. 2 : 74.0 99.7 70.9 100.9 77.8 101.0 75.8 98.5 77.2 104.7 74.5 87.7
9 : 73.1 105.2 70.1 106.4 75.4 107.2 72.3 103.4 77.0 108.8 74.7 95.0
16 : 71.2 104.8 68.4 106.6 72.0 106.1 74.5 104.6 75.5 109.0 72.5 93-9

High 2/ : 74,0 105.2 72.5 106.6 80.5 107.2 79.8 104.6 77.2 109.0 74.7 95.0
Low / : 71.2 96.9 68.1 96.8 72.0 98.2 72.3 96.5 74.8 102.4 72.5 84.3
1/ Weekly average of daily cash quotations, basis No. 1 sacked.
2/ July 5 to Aug. .16, 1941 and corresponding dates 1940.

THE WORLD WHEAT SITUATION

BACKRO~0N-D.- Total world.supplies of wheat5/ increased sharply
from 1924 to 1933, largely as a result of increased acreage
(fi--o 5). From 1934 to 1936, supplies declined, following
successive years of small yields and increased world demand.
Suprlies increased slightly in 1937. With above-average yields
on the large acreage, supplies in 1938, 1939, and 1940 -'ere the
largest on record, and Drospects are for another large crop this
year.
World wheat prices declined in the period 1924-33 with the
increase in world supplies. The sharp decline in prices after 1929
was caused largely by the general decline in industrial activity and
commodity prices. From the spring of 1933 to the summer cf 1937,
world wheat prices moved upward, reflecting world-wide recovery in
commodity price levels, currency depreciation, and reduced produc-
tion. The world price for the 1937 crop remained practically un-
changed from that of a year earlier. In 1938, world prices again
declined sharply as a result of record Tvorld production and weakness
in demand. Prices in 1939-40 remained low but averaged higher than
a year earlier, influenced by general expectations of increased de-
mand for wheat as'a result of the war, and by poor crop prospects in
Argentina and the United States. In 1940-41 large supplies in sur-
plus countries and reduced trade held world wheat prices to low levels.

/ All references to world acreage, production, and stocks exclude the U.S.S.R.
and China. Table on world supply and distribution was published in "The Wheat
Situation" for March 1941, page 15.


- 17 -







AUGUST 1941


World wheat production, excluding continental
Europe, the U.S.S.R., and China may be 100
million bu'i-els below 1940

It now appears that world wheat production, exclu- in- Sovi2t Russia
and China and also excluding continental Z7rope, where trade is restricted
by the blockade, ray be abou+ 100 million bushels below the 2,770 Lillion
bushels priouced in the same countries in 19406/. On the other hand, an in-
crease of around 125 million bushels is now indicated for continental Europe,
so that there is a net increase-of about 25 million bushls indicated for the
world, excluding the U..S.S.R. and China.

Reductions in the crops in Canada and India are expected to more than
offset increases in the United States and Australia. The Canadian crop is
tentatively placed at 310 million bushels -- 290 million bushels for the
Prairie Provinces on the basis of weather conditions to date, 4 million bush-
els of spring wheat grown elscv:here in Canada, arid the officially estimated
winter wheat crop of 16.4 million bushels. A .crop of 310 million bushels
would be about 240 million bushels less than the large crop in 1940. The crop
in India i's now officially estimated at 374 million bushels, compared with 403
million bushels a year ago. The present crop will provide a small surplus
which will probably go to the Middle East. The United States crop at 953 mil-
lion bushels is '136 million bushels larger than a year ago. On the basis of
present conditions and assuming average weather for the rest of the season,
production in Argentina may be about the same or only slightly less than the
271 million bushels last yea: while that in Australia may be materially larg-
er than the abnormally small production in 1940.

Reports indicate that the acreage in Argentina may be about equal to
the acreage last year, despite the Goverrunent's efforts to get the growers to
reduce plantings. Germination was reported better than usual, with crop con-
ditions very satisfactory. In Australia conditions for the time being remain
satisfactory, but New South Wales and Victoria need immediate rains to main-
tain present prospects. It now seems likely that there may be a reduction in
acreage of only about 2 percent.

The 1941 wheat crop of China is estimated at 720 million bushels by the
American consulate general at Shanghai, compared with 700 million bushels re-
ported for 1940. The Japanese crop is officially forecast at 58 million bush-
els compared with 66 million bushels in 1940.

Present crop prospects in continental Europe still indicate a produc-
tion of about 1,370 million bushels. This would be larger than the very small
crop of about 1,245 million bushels produced last year but still blow the
10-year (1931-40) average of 1,509 million bushels. In the southeast end south!
the harvest is about completed with yields largely unsatisfactory. Rains have
interfered with harvesting in many areas in western Europe and have resulted
in losses in some sections. In the Danubian countries, except Bulgaria, yields'
have been below average. Reports are particularly unfavorable for Hungary.

6/ Continental Europe is excluded from the total because it is largely out of
the world trade picture at the present time. This figure should not be con-
fused with the previously published total which included continental Europe.







WS-58 19-

The crop in Greece is reported as small, and unless imports are permitted a
serious shortage is expected. The Italian crop has been placed at 268 million
bushels, the same as last year, but somewhat below usual requirements. The
crops in Spain and Portugal are reported better than a year ago but in the
case of the former still well below normal needs. In both unoccupied and oc-
cupied parts of France the crop is reported better than that of last year
though still below average. In Sweden prosoDcts are for a crop about the same
as last years poor crop. In the United Kingdom, the crop is fairly satis-
factory, with good outturn expected from the larger acreage. In the U.S.S.R.
the winter harvest is reported as largely completed in the southern areas,
where yields are reported to be very good. While it is reported that a con-
siderable quantity of the grain has been moved eastward, the loss in the west
may be heavy as a result of war operations. Cutting of the spring crop is in
progress.

Stocks in exporting countries at record high

Wheat supplies for export or carry-over in the four overseas exporting
countries on August 1 are estimated at about 1,312 million bushels compared
with 864 million bushels a year earlier (table 4). Stocks in Canada and the
United States are at record heights and those in Argentina are second only to
those in 1939. Increases in these stocks are far greater than the estimated
reduction in the 1941 world crop, excluding continental Eurrope as well as the
usual U.S.S.R. and China, and indicate that supplies in 1941-42 are at record
heights.

Table 4.- Estimated wheat surplus for export or carry-over in four
important exporting countries, August 1, 1938-41 1/

Position 1938 1939 : 1940 1941
: Million Million Million Million
: bushels bushels bushels bushels

United States ............ 349 324 425 668
Canada 2/ ................: 23 96 286 470

Australia ...............: 38 40 105 3/ 53
Argentina ..... .......: 55 211 4s 121

Total 465 671 g64 1,312
lI Carry-over at the beginning of the year (United States, July 1; Canada
August 1; Argentina, January 1; Australia, December 1 of the previous year)
plus production minus domestic utilization for the year, minus monthly ex-
ports to date, last month for United States, Australia, and Argentina esti-
mated.
2/ Surplus from new crop not added.
I/ Based on official exports through February 1940, and unofficial estimates
for succeeding months.







AUGUST 1S41


International Whcat Corference discusses
wheat problems

Government representatives from Argentina, Austra~..ia, Carnaa, the
United Kin,-lum, and the United States, who convened in WashLrcnton on July 10,
1941, to consider problem of the wor'.d wheat situation, rec: ;sed on August 3.
A tentative agreement dran- up before the recess has been s-mitted to the
resr active governments with a request for further instructions to be presented
at' another" meeting later this year.

The discussions of the delegates covered a wider range of subjects than
those of previous international wheat conferences. Besides the old problem
of sharing world markets on some equitable basis, post-war relief received con.
siderable attention. In view of the record high level of world exportable
stocks on July 31, which are considered sufficient to moot the normal require-
ments of importing countries during 2 years, the oep.orting countries are faced
with.the necessity for some form of prcluction control. In many cf the im-
porting countries, on the other hand, particularly in Europe, reconstruction
problems will arise from the 'distortion of agriculture under war conditions.
Not only must some plan be devised to remedy these abnormalities, but it is
also desired that greater post-war happiness for the r'po ple mr.y be attained
through applying to their relief the increasing :kowledge of the relationship
of food to health. By morns of an international ever-normal gran,-.ry, it is
hoped that a large pool of relief wheat may be L.aie available at prices rea-
sonable both to consumers and producers and free of charge to those made des-
titute by war.

Prices in Winnipeg and Buenos Aires |
continue' steady

Prices in both Winnipeg and Buenos Aires, where minimum prices are in
effect, have continued to fluctuate very little, r.nd average only slightly
different from those a month ago. Prices of near futures in those two mar-
kets, together with prices in Chicago, Kansas City, and MinrLcapolis are shown
in table 5-

The following fixed minimum carlot prices for wheat, 'bdsis in store
Fort Willia: or Vancouver, were. s-et -by the Canadian Ther.t Board and approved
by Order-in-Cour.cil August 1, 15l41:
S Ce:-ts per bushel

No. 1 Hrid 70
To. 1 Iorthern (statutory price) j/" 70
No. 2 Northern 67
No. 3 Northern 64
No. 1 Amber Durum 64
No. 2 An:'er Durum 62
No. 3 Amber Durum 60
To. 1 Alberta Red Winter 64
No. 2 Alberta Winter 63
No. 3 Alberta Winter 61

j1 63.6 cents in U.S. currency.

il


- 20 -






- 21 -


Table 5.- Average closing price of September wheat futures,
specified markets and dates, 1940-41

:Wi nnipeg i uenos Aires: Chicago Kansas City C Minneapolis
Period 1940 1941 0 : 1941 1940 1941 1940 1941 1940 1941

: Cents Cents Cents Ceits Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
Month -
May : 76.0 -- 93.6 97.0 89.1 89.2 91.9 94.6
June : 685 -- -- -- 79.8 102.7 74.8 948 78.0 99.0
July :66.9 69.9 --- 75.1 105.6 69.3 98.2 74.1 100.3
Week
ended
July 5 :66.9 67.9 56.9 77.0 105.1 70.9 97.3 76,8 99.7
12 : 66.9 70.9 76.5 56.3 74.8 106,9 90.2 99.4 74.4 101.7
19 : 66.9 70.7 77.1 55.4 74.4 104.4 6S.7 97.2 73.4 99.0
26 :66.9 70.3 76.4 55.0 74.0 105.4 68.3 98.4 72.7 100.1
Aug. 2 :66.9 68.0 72.6 55.0 75.6 106.8 69.6 99g6 735 101.3
9 : 66,9 68.4 70.5 55.1 74.4 112,0 65o0 105,6 ,4 107.3
16 : 66.9 68.7 71.5 55.1 71.8 111.3 65.9 105.4 6o.3 107.0

High : 66,9 70.9 77.1 56.9 77.0 112.0 70o,9 10G,6 76.8 107.3
Low : 66.9 67.9 70.5 55.0 71.8 104.4 65.9 97.2 68.3 99.0

l/ Conversionsat official rate, which is 90.909 cents. 6gy Uni.ed S-.ctes An ler
of Canadian grain would be required to make settlement in terms of United S atcs
dollars through an agent of the Canadian Foreign Exchango Control Board at the
official rate, Oct. futures.
2? Oct, futures, 1940.
j/ July 5 to Aug. 16, 1941, and corresponding dates, 1940.


WS-58




AGUST 1941 22 -

Table 6,- Estimated supply and distribution of wheat,
by classes, continental United States, 1937-41 1/

Item ___________ Year bgirning July
__e_ __ 3_: 193Z : 49393 1_94o : 12
SMi. bu, Mil. uu. Mil, bu, Mil, bu, Mil. b
All wheat
Stocks, July 1 ...... 15 252 282 387
Production ....... 76 32 751 81795
Supply ......... 959 1. 05 1003 1, 0 1.3
Net exports !J ..... 103 109 4g 34
Carry-over 153 252 282 307
Domestic disap- :
pearance 4/ .: 703 724 673 678
Hard red winter
Stocks, July 1 ......: 37 60 114 135 16o
Production ..........:373 S390 309 31 391
Supply ........,: 4 450 4230
Exports 3/ 0.9,, .22: 69 68 22 6
Carry-over .......,,: 60 114 135 16o
Domestic disap- :
pearance 4/ ., 281 262 266 284
Soft red iner :
Stocks, July 1 ......: 15 37 29 25 42
Production ...,,,,,.. 225 236 206 2e O226
Supply 273 .273 05
Exports 3/ ........., 5 5 3 3
Carry-over .......,,: 37 29 25 42
Domestic disap- :
pearance / ... : 231 239 207 200
Hard red sTring
Stocks, July 1 ....... 1 31 72 33 136
Production .........: 102 157 121 161 201
Sunply .....:.. 120 18i 193 244 337
Net exports 1/ ......: 3 4 5
Carry-over ........ 31 72 53 136
Domestic disap- :
pearance 4/ ... : 6 112 105 107
Durum
Stocks, July 1 ,.....: 3 5 17 1S 26
Production .........,: 29 42__35 3D 42
Supply ......... 32 47 52 54 6g
Exports V .......,: 0 2 0 0
Carry-over ..........: 5 17 18 26
Domestic disap- :
pearance 4/ ...: 27 28 34 28
White :
Stocks, July 1 ..... 10 20 20 21 23
Production ,.........: 114 107 SO 5 93
Supply ........*: 124 127 100 O16 116
E:xorts Z/ .......... 26 30 1 24
Carry-over ......... 20 20 21 23
Domestic disap- :
pearance 4/ ., 78 77 61 59
l Averages 1929-33 and 1937-39, and annual 1929-3b in The Wheat Situation,
August 1940, ag 26, 2 Preliminary 3 From reports of Forcign and DomostiI
Co-merce of t'he- united j'ates, Exoris ao regular sports plus shipmonts to
aska awai, urt co an rin plans, and clud wa, d flour
made wholly of domestic wheat. Balancing item.








Table 7.- Wheat: Imports into the United States for domestic
utilization and for grinding.in bond and export, 1923-40


' 91heat unfit :Total imports:


: Full duty
: wheat
: ((tariff
: -2- cents)
*^ ..


Bushels

1923 : 13,783,423
1924 : 272,548
1925 : 1,664,843
1926 : 48,808
1927 : 161,297
1928 : 79,136
1929 : 44,607
1930 : 40.756
1931 : 6057
1932 : 5767
1933 : 143,646
1934 : 5,905,380
1935 : 25,288,519
1936 : 30,205,430
1937 597,776
193 : 9,086
1939 : 55,524
1940 : 164,846


: for human :for domestic
S.consumption : utilization
: (tariff of : (total of
:5-10 percent : first 2
:ad valorem)l/: columns)
Bushels Bushels


307,336

1,3514
5.739
8,146,044
9,205,128
4,057,016
4.150
206,969
4/' 86,284
-3,236,678


13,783,423
272,548
1,664,843
48,808
161,297
79,136
44,607
348,092
6,057
7,121
149,5385
14,051,424
34,493,647
34,262,446
601,926
246,055
141,5808
3,5401,524


Flour
in terms
of wheat
2/


.


:For grinding
: in bond
: and


Year
beginning
July


Imports for consumption from United States Tariff Commission, July 1923 to
December 1933, and from Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce, January 1934
to date.

l/ Beginning Jun. 18, 1930, a new classification, wheat unfit for human consump-
tion, was introduced by the 1930 Tariff Act.
2/ What for .Tinding in bond for export, which enters duty free. Beginning
June 1G, 1930, includes wheat ground into flour in bond for export to Cuba, a
new classification in the 1930 Act. From June 18, 1930 to September 3, 1936 the
duty on this wheat equaled tho reduction in Cuban duty and the reduction in the
consumption tax applicable by treaty to such flour imported into- Cuba. On
September, 1936 the consumption tax was repealed.
G/ General imports prior to July-1934, subsequently imports for consumption.
Beginning July 1934, excludes flour imported free for export in manufactured
foods.
4/ Effective January 1, 1939, the new trade agreement with Canada reduced the
tariff to 5 per cont ad valoron on "wheat unfit for hunan co:nsunption."


q
i


--


export
3/
Bushels

13,904,837
5,813,353
13,421,480
13,171,683
15;043;679
22,480,962
12,903,364
19,013,090
12,878,851
9,372,151
11,341;052
11,064,092
11,978,659
13,468,667
2,819,031
8,988,542
9,952,595
7,330,854


? *
Bushels

794,920
31,575
81,804
28,463
26,926
12,234
8,oo4
5.461
1,278
3,201
3,882
18,048
123,366
192,606
31,683
25,399
121,476
121,641







AUGUST 1941 24 -

Table 8.- Percentage of hard red, and soft red winter wheat in
specified grades, 1940-41
(Based on inspected reccipts at representatives markets, July 1 to July 31)
~~-- -. I -- ---- -
: .rd 7zd r Wi .Lr wheat : Sof., Tod ...ocr -.-hcat
Item : Sub- 19- : 1941 : Sub- 1940 191
: cl ss : : s: class : :
Percent Percent : Pnrcent Percent
:Dk.Hd.. 5- 3 :
:Hard. 42 62 :
:Yellow Hi. 0 0 :Rod

Gr ado
1 : 47 16 22 27
2 25 43 : 51 38
3 14 24 :20 18
4 8 13 4 5
5 5 3 1 1
Sample : 1 1 :2 11
Special grade a
Tough 1 .1 24
Light Smutty : 0 0 : 1 3
Smutty 0 0 :1 1
Light Garlicky : 3 2
Garlicky : 20 24


Table 9.- Movcmcait of wheat, including flour, from principal
exporting countries, 1938-39 to 1941-42 1/

____ sports as given by official .sources
Country : Total : July 1 to date shoin : Date
:1938-39 :1939-40 :939- :194-4 140-41 :1941-42 :___
:1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
: bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels

United States 2/: 115,784 54,274 40,670 7,270 3,693 --- :July 31
Canada ........: 159,85 210,212 209,553 15,596 13,270 27,994 :July 31
Argrntina ......: 116,116 177,246 100,052 11,387 13,53 --- :July 31

: Shipments as given by trade sources 3
: Total : Week ended 1941 : July 1 A. 16
:1939-40 :19 o0-4 : Aug. 2 : Aug. 9 :Aug. b1 :1940-41 :1941-42
: 1,000 1000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
: bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels

North America..: 209,872 221,087 4,746 4,225 3,915 23,367 35,998
Argentina ......: 173,776 98b420 2,238 2,218 2,557 21,029 14.358
Total ..... 383,648 319,507 14,396 50,356
1/ See June 1941 Wheat Situation for latest available figures for countries other
Y3) shown. 2/ Includes flour milled in bond from foreign wheat. f/ From
Broomhall's Corn Trade News and Chicago Daily Trade Bulletin.






WS-58


- 25 -


THE RYE SITUATION

Rye crop about 14 percent above 1940

Production of rye in 1941 is estimated at 46.5 million bushels, 14 per-
cent larger than the 1940 crop of 40.6 million bushels and 21 percent larger
than the IC-yoar (1930-39) average production of 38.5 million bushels. Indi-
cated production declined more than 2 million bushels during July as the very
promising earlier prospects did not fully materialize in 1Iinnesota, South
Dakota, and Wisconsin each an important rye-producing State. Indicated
yields are above the 10-year average in all States except Minnesota, Iowa,
Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Vi:ginia, and Maryland where they equal the
average or are only about one bushel or less below. Excellent yields the
highest in 10 to 20 years are being secured in Ilorth Dakota, Indiana, Ohio,
Kentucky, Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Washington, and Oregon.

Old crop carry-over 7 percent above
year earlier

The United States stocks of rye at the beginning of the 1941-42 market-
ing year are estimated at 22 million bushels. A year ago the carry-over was
21 million bushels. With a cron indicated ab about 46.5 million bushels the
total supply of rye for the 1940-41 season will amount to 68.6 million bushels
(table 10), compared with 62.7 million bushels a year earlier, and 59.5
million bushels, the 1936-40.average. The apparent disappearance of rye in
1940-41 was 40.3 million bushels, which was one half million bushels less than
a year earlier and 1.2 million bushels less than the 1936-40 average. Dur-
ing 1936-40, of the average total disappearance of 41 million bushels, it is
estimated that 9 million bushels were used for food, 9 million bushels for
distilled spirits, 10 million bushels for seud, and 13 million bushels for
feed.

Table 10.- Rye: Supply and distribution, United States, 1935-41

Year : Supply : Distribution
be : Stocks : : : : : :Appar-
gin- : Commerr : : Produc-: Im- : Total : E-- : :cnt dis-
ning : cial: arne : Total : tion :ports : supply :ports stocks :appear-
July : July 1: Jun : : : : : : ance
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
:bu. bu. bu. bu. bu. bu, bu. bu. bu.

1935 : 8,560 2,723 11,283 58,597 2,266 72,146 9 22,299 49,838
1936 : 6,379 15,920 22,299 25,319 3,943 51,561 248 5,886 45,427
1937 : 1,406 4,480 5,886 49,830 1/ 55,716 6,578 9,699 39,439
1938 : 1,000 8,699 9,699 55,564 1 65,264 784 23,196 41,284
1939 : 7,384 15,812 23,196 39,049 1/ 62,245 732 20,714 40,799
1940 : 9,506 11,208 20,714 40,601 1,392 62,707 245 22,173 40,289
1941 : 5,639 16,534 22,173 / 46,462 3/68,635

/ Less than 500 bushels.
SIndicated August 1.
/Imports excluded.












RYE: ACREAGE. YIELD. PRODUCTION. NET EXPORTS OR IMPORTS.
AND PRICE. UNITED STATES. 1900-1941
ACRES -A -EAGE--
I MILLIONS I ACREAGE HARVESTED -


BUSHELS I I I
YIELD PER ACRE


------------ --


1910 1915 1920 1925 1930
YEAR BEGINNING JULY
900.-190. DEC. I PRICE DATA FOR i94 ARE PRELIMINARY


Rye: Acreage, yield per acre, production, net exports or imports,
and price received by farmers, United States, 1900-1941


Year
beginning
July



1900
1901
1902 1
1903 :
1904 :
1905 :
1906
1907 8
1908 :
1909
1910 :
1911 :
1912
1914 :
1915 :
1916 !
1917 ,
1918
1919 8
1920
1921 8
1922 :
19235
1924
1925 t
1926
1927
1928
1929 8
1930 8
1931 f
1932
1933 ,
1934 :
1935
1936 1
1937 :
1938
1939 8
194
1941 r,:


5 1940
,.94,0,0,


SYield 8 Productio
: per acre 8


Acreage
harvested
1,000
acres

2,127
2,,4o9
2,444
2,260
2,205
2,297
2,154
2,073
2,130
2,212
2,262
2,452
2,724
3,09g
3,14,
3,417
3,528
5,059
6,694
7,168
4,825
4,851
6,757
4,936
3,941
3,800
3,419
3,458
3.310
3,130
3,621
3,162
3,351
2,418
2,035
4,141
2,774
3,46
4,021
3,832
3,192
3,436


Bushel s

12.9
12.8
13.9
12.8
12.9
13.6
13.7
13.6
13.5
13.6
12.9
12.8
13.9
13.1
13.4
13. 7
12.2
11.9
12.5
11.0
12.8
12.6
14.9
11.3
14.8
11.1
10.2
14.8
11.5
11.3
12.4
10.6
118s
8.9
8.4
14.2
9.1
13.0
13.8
10.2
12.7
13.5


Figure 6
Growing conditions were again favorable for rye in 1941, and
indicated production is 14 percent larger than in 1940 and 22 percent
above the 10-year average, 1939-40. Production in 1940 was slightly
larger and prices somewhat lower than a year earlier.


1,000
bushels

27,413
30,773
33,862
28,932
28,461
31,173
29,609
28,247
28,650
30,083
29,098
31.396
37,911
4,390
42,120
46,752
43,089
60,321
83,421
78,659
61,915
61,023
100,986
55,961
58,445
42,316
34,860
51,076
37,910
35,282
45,068
33.378
39,424
21,418
17,070
58,597
25,319
149,830
55.561
39 1049
40,601
46,462


: Price
n : Net : received by
t exports 1/ farmers 2/
1,000 Cents per
bushels bushel

2,345 51.2
2,712 55.7
5,441 50.8
751 54.5
9 68.8
1,387 61.1
769 58.9
2,443 .1
1,295 ?/ 74.5
212 74.6
11 187 73.4
1/- 103 81.0
1,854 68.7
2,236 62.9
12,880 83.3
14,684 85.0
13,275 113.0
16,352 176.4
35.82: 152.1
,454 145.9
46,885 146.4
29,244 84.0
51.564 63.9
19,900 59.3
50,241 95.2
12,646 79.1
21,697 83.0
26, 345 83.5
9,487 83.6
2,599 85.7
139 44.5
908 34.1
304 28,1
-11,998 62.7
3-11,249 71.8
2- 2,257 39.5
3,695 90.9
6,578 68.6
783 33.8
732 44.
/- 1,003 / 140.6







27 -

IIID3 OF SPECIAL SUBJECTS DISCUSSED IN THE WHEAT SITUATION

Page


Special reviews ana outlook st+atements-

The Vheat Situa-ion, 1914 and 1939 ................ 1-13

A review of uhest prices~in 1953-40 .............. 24

The wheat outlook for 1941-42 ................. 12-13

The wheat outlook for 1941-42 o,.... .,.... *s..... 3-7

The nation's grain storage situation .............. 14-15

World wheat supplies expected to be record 0....... 14

Farm income from wheat *.......................... 10-11

Farm income front wheat ............**....*........ 8

Government measures

WVheat and rye loan rates in 1941 .8............... 8

Marketing quota provisions of Public Law 74 ....... 9

United States wheat import quotas ................ 9-10

National wheat allotment for 1942 ..,.............. 10

Government measures in Australia p................. 13

Features of Canada's heat policy in 1941 ......... 23

Special aralyses

Analysis of the loan and export-subsidy program
in 1938-39 .................................... 15

Comparatively large United Statoes wheat carry-.
over stocks ****............*....... ........ ....... 14-16


Sept

Aug.

Aug.

Mar.

May

June

Feb.

Fob.



June

June

June

June

Nov.

Aug.


1939

1940

1940

1941

1941

1941

1940

1941



1941

1941

1941

1941

1940

1940


.GS-35

V -46

TiS-46
TS-46

TE-53

TIS-55

'S -56

WVS-40

WS-52



I-56

"WS-56

'I'SM-5 6

WS-56

WS-49

WS-46


Sept. 1939 WS-35


July 1940 VS-45


IS-58


Issue




UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
AUGUST 1941
v ou s' 19141 II HIJI JIB IBJ I IIBI 1111 1111111l 1
S---- 3 1262 088618920
:tWERE TO FIND STATISTICS ON THE WHEAT SITUATION NOT IiTCLUIED in iao omu s


Ti DOMESTIC WHEAT SITUATION
Supply and distributicu
All wheat, 1923-40 .......... .................. ..
Classes, July-June, 1929-39 .......................
Classes, 19o 0 ......... ... .. ......... .. .........
Supplies for export and carry-over, 1923-39 ........


Acreage, yield, and pro duction
Acreage seeded by regions-, 1919-40 ..................
Production by classes, 1919-40 ......................

Stocks
January 1, 1935-l1 ..................................
July 1, 1923-40 .............. ......................

Exports and imports
Exports of wheat including flour to specified
countries, 1910-39 ................................ .
"Inmorts into the United States, 1923-39 .............

Salos .n.md inconc, ".nd -:ics
Production and farm disposition, 1909-0 .......... .
Sales, price per burhol, and cash income, 1910-40 ....
Percentage monthly salns, avorago 1928-37, and
annual 1928-39 .....................................
Avcrrag price received by farmers, 1908-40 ........

THES :COLD WIMAT SITUATION
Suprly and distribution
1922-40 .......... ... ............ ..
1938-40 3 33 ............. ................. ............
Averages 1924-28, 1923-37, annual 1914, 1937 .......

Acreage and production
SAcreago of wheat, wcrld. and specified countries,
1903-40 o.... ............... ................. .
Production of wheat, world -nd specified coun-
tries, 1909-40 ....................................
Production by countries, 1937-40 ....O ... ........

Stocks, July 1
1922-40 ......................... ........................
'Major exporting countries, 1922-40 ..................

International trade
Intcrnatior.al trt.do in wheat including flour,
averages 1925-34, annual 1937-39 ...................
World shipments and to Europe and non-Europo, av-
erages 1910-14, 1930-34, and annual -191-lo,
1937-38 .... ... ..... ........................


Page


Issue


Iar.
Feb.
Mar.
July


1941
1941
194-1
1941


15 Sept.1940
14 Doc..1940


4 Feb.
14 Mar.



27 Aug.
30 Aug.


16 MIay
12 Feb.

15 Nov.
13 Jan.


Mar.
Mar.
Sept


1941
1941



1940
1940


1941
1941


1941



1941
.1939
.1939


WS-53
ws-52
WS-53
VS-57


WS-47
WS-50


WS-52
WS-53



ws-46
ws-46


WS-55
WS-52

vs-49
WS-51



WS-53
ws-53
WS-53
WS-35


17 June 1941 WS-56


18
8


Juno
Jan.


7 Aug.
21 I-ar.


1941
1941


1940
1941


ws-56
WS-51


ws-46
IW-53


16 Fob. 1941 WS-52


7 Sept.1939 WS-35


1/ Solected tables used most frequently. ___
:i STATISTICS OiT T:- RYE SITUATION IN "THE ;HEAT SITUATIOIT" JUNL 1941


(Soo preceding pgo for index of special subjects)


_ IIIIII


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