Wheat situation

/-) 34,. 6 z


THE


SITUATION


BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

qjiq APRIL 26, 1940


WHEAT: DISTRIBUTION OF U. S. SUPPLY, 1923-39


- Fed by growers
Seed
- i Foods and commercial feeds


S -
~ I
S I


1923 1925


Stocks, June 30*
Exports"


I
-- S
55 55
5* *~ .5
~- 5% 55 -


1935


1937


U.S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


NEG. 31821 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


WHEAT EXPORTS, WHICH AT PRESENT DOMESTIC PRICES ARE MADE POSSIBLE
ALMOST ENTIRELY BY SUBSIDY, WERE SHARPLY CURTAILED BY POOR WINTER WHEAT
CROP PROSPECTS. VARIATIONS IN TOTAL DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE DEPEND
LARGELY ON THE QUANTITY OF WHEAT FED; THE QUANTITY USED FOR FOOD AND
SEED CHANGES RELATIVELY LITTLE FROM YEAR TO YEAR,


WS-42


BUSHELS
I MILLIONS)
1.400


1.200


1,000


800


600


400


200


0 -


1927 1929 1931 1933
YEAR BEGINNING JULY
*1924-J7 INCLUDES SOME NEW WHEAT
INCLUDES FLOUR MILLED FROM DOMESTIC WHEAT ONLY
PRELIMINARY


1939


I i i i i !


m


I


T I 1




-S-42 2 -


THE WHEAT SITUATION


Sur2mary

The doT.'stic whent supply in 1940 is expected to exceed qCO trillion

bushels o.cclrin. to present in.iicatio-.s. This indication is bose:. on a

winte-r rTheat crop indicated as of April 1, 1901 at about 426 million bushels,

a spring c-rop (includin-, Luram) very tentatively -laced at 20-0 million bushels

on the basis of average yields on -rospective -plrting;s, n n'i a car.ry-over of

all wheat on July 1, 1940 estimat'it at about 290 million bushels. With pros- 4

poets that domestic di appearance will approximate 660 million bushels and

shipments to our possessions 3 million blushels, the quantity left for exports

and carry-over at the close of the 1940-41 season would be atouit 250 million

bushels. On the basis of pre,3.-it conditions, exports in 1940-41 are expected

to be small. The total domestic supply in 1939-40 was 1,009 million bushels,

consisting of a carry-over of 254 million bushels -and a crop of 755 million

bushels.

Growing conditions for the 1940 world wheat crop continue unsatisfactory

in mnz- important producing areas, and the crnp will require favorable con-

ditions for the remainder of the season to maJe averae yields per acre. With

no increase in acreage probable, it seems reasonable, accordingly, to continue

to expect that the 1,40 cro- will be smaller than that of 1939, when yields

were abnvi aver-..-:e. This would result in a reduction in the large world carry-

over by July 1941.

Surface moisture conditions in Cone.a recently have improved somewhat,

and accoriin.- to reports moisture is adequate to .-ive the crop a start in most

districts. Subsoil reserves are low, however, throughout Manitoba and Sas-

katchewan. Moisture conditions are relatively better in Alberta.

Unfavorable winter weather over large areas of Europe resulted in

heavier than normal winter kill. In come countries, flood conditions are also







repo rted to have done .r":.:.:a, ad in 7ost "the crop is not as advanced as is

usual at this time of the year. Spring see ~.ig is reported to be generally

backward.

Domestic wheat pricess in April ad. ance ch:-.ply from the levels pre-

vailin-- at the middle of March, to the hi-hest levels *since 1937. Factors

which contributed to this rise weree the intensified wr situation, pncsinmistic

crop news abroad, ar i l":-. C n dioin r.,,rt. sales.

C:-., 's in *heat rices in the next few T-'-'-.hs arc e:recteO. to continue

to defend la.:-ely upro:: develoT -.-'s in the forci political situation, weather

conditions in both this country -ni alrad., and. upon the volumne of overseas

sales of Torth Americon whea.t.

TE TC-7.' "hr 7'. SITUATION IN 1939-40 1/

C-:,_CGc.-.- Total world supplies of wh-at increased sharply
from 1924 to 1933, as a result of both increased acreage -ri
yields. YCr': 153'4 to 1Q03, world supplies declined, folloz-
ir, successive years of small yields -,d increased. world de-
meand. Sppolios incr-as-d slightly" in 1937. ~ith above avor-
a--.c ieldLs on the lr.go acr a :.., supplies in 193. nd. 1939 wore
the largest on record.

Total world shipments of wheat av _.rad 751 million
bushels for the period 1923-27, reached a p: :3 of 913 million
bushels in the yeor b- i-'-ir.- July 192~, ond then declined
shu.rr.ly, largely as a result of the reasures taken by i:. sorting
countries to refuco the use of foreign wheat. World shipments
w:-re 9 million bushels for the year beginning July 1, 193g,
T:.-r are expected to be somewhat less during the current season.

World wheat prices declined in the period 194-,-33 ,ith
the increase in world supplies. The sharp decline in prices
after 1929 was caused lar1-_ely by the general decline in in-
dustrial activity and commodity prices. From" the spring of 1933
to the sumraer of 1937, world wheat prices nov-,i xc..Frd, reflect-
in.g worlc.-wide recovery in commodity price levels, currency deo-
preciation, and reduced proit.ction. The world price for the 1937
crop rep.ained practically uncL,, :.. from that of a year earlier.
In 193, world prices ;'..i,- declined sharply as a result of re-
cord world production and rwekness of T.C-.:d. In "ovem'ber aond
December 1939, prices advnr-ced, influenced by the E'ropeon ,T.r
"\nd by poor crop prospects in Argct-.tina and the,. United States.

I/ All references to world acreage, production, and stocks in this report
exclud.o Soviet Russia and China except where noted.


WS-42


- 3 -






WS-.h2


World :'heat cropr irn 104 expected to be
:rel!er th-n in 1n3''

Growing cnr.citior.s for th- 1940 vorld v,'heat crop continue unsatisfactory
in m.u-y inmrortant -r)iducin,r areas, ard the crop will require favorable condi-
tions for thp repair of th..e s so.n to m .k. aver.a:e :-ields per acre. 1ith
no incr-a1c. in acrr-e pro'br.ble, it ec-.r.s reasonable, accorLinrily, to continue
to e- '3ct 'hi'- the l1040 crop '-ill. be miall.er than that of 1939., whn yields
were .bo-c epverie (75. b-.-sh2ls, compared with the 1923-53 a-.--ra a of 14.2
bushc!s). T r.ic woull result in c. rniduction in the large world carri-over by
Jt]y 13 "l, if no rio,'l:ed d.ecres-e in consTucntion occurs.

The .14C -7ir.ter vwh-'.t a-cr..a.e in the nine couantrios for which reports
hove be .n r.c.i.vd is estim-ted. t 117, C7,'', acres, corpareod *.ith the 1939
crears of ~1,'-71,0o-0 rcros (table 1). The largest redlactions are reported
for Rnaria -nr'. urnofficial. for Yu-orlavi.-.. Other rcportinr cciuntrics show
slight increoa-,.-s compared rl-ith the: acroagc sorm for harvest 1-ist year.

T'.blo l.- Wintcr ;:h'rt area sovm in i pdcifie.i co-ntries
for harv-st, lSi7-140

Co.',t ry : -7 : 19 1'39 : 1940
:I,000 acres 1,O'0 O.cr-.s 1,00) acres 1l000 acres

United. States l/ ........: gl,C72 79,565 63,g96 2/ 64,439
Ca.7da ..................: 7S1 815 774 813
Greece ..................: 2,117 2,062 2,320 2,557
Lithr.a -in .............: 379 357 365 346
-ria .................: 7,9 4 8,797 9,556 7,79S
Y-ocla5via ..............: 5,335 5,236 I ,5,5 / 91o
Egypt ...................: 1,421 1,470 1,501 1,503
Japan ...................: 1,776 1,777 1,g27 ,OCl
India / ................: 33,415 3-,722 33,67 460

T'"l1 .................: 134,260 133,801 118,971 11.7,,57
j1 All ha.t sown.T
2/ 7,inter wheat s7own plus intentions to pl.nt spring wheat.
3/ Unofficial ontimat: .
/ April estimate.

Surface moisture conditions in Crnia. recently have inprovedl somewhat.
Reports state that s.-.r_'ace moisture is .dequate to give the crop a start in
most districts, but subsoil reserves are low throughout Manitoba and Saskatchewan
Moisture coniitir.s arc relatively better in Alberta than in the other t7wo
Prairie Urd.'inces. Under favorable conditions, prep-.-ration of the l-nd for
sprir.r soowingi should. b;i-:in about this time in Manitoba .and Sacitchcwan and.
sc7'r.-hat later in Alberta.

Estimated wheat secdin,-s are usually- av-ilble at this time of the year
for a number of '-r,'I.pean countries as vwell as for the countries of North Africa.
This year estimates for only five of these countries have bern received (table 1)






WS-42 5 -

Unfavorable winter weather over large areas of Europe resulted in heavier than
normal winter kill. In some countries, flood conditions are also reported to
have done damage, and in most the crop is not as advanced as is usual at this
time of the year. Spring seeding also is reported to be generally behind the
usual schedules. In the important producing countries of the Danube Basin,
conditions are largely unfavorable. In Ramiia the coimdlition of the winter
crop is still re,':.rded as un s...tisfactory, and the prospects for the spring
crop are not favorable, because of the latenecs of the spring field work. The
outlook for the cornt!.: crop is sufficiently uncertain at present to warrant
the Governmentls prohibiting further exports of wheat bcc.-id current commit-
ments. In E'ir .'ry, rainy reather and unseasonable cold have put field work
behinJ. schedule.c. Yugoslavia re-orts that the crop this year probably will be
considerably below that of a year ago. R.-ports from 3Belgiu:n and Denmark indi-
cate that acreage will be reduced substantially. It is reported that there has
been above average -::inter kill in GCrni;ry. In some other -'ts of Europe seed-
ing is now progressing after a lato start. Winter wheat lacks color and neo.ds
warm weather and sun. 7eathcr in May and June, however, is very important in
dot .rmi. i.: final yields.

In Soviet Rassia winter cro-s are believed to have boon a~,.g.ed in some
important areas. Spring scoding is much behind schedule; there has been sown
only approximately one-third of the grain acreao'e which had been sown at this
time last yoner.

Tho v-heat harvest is pror-rccsing in India iand the yields are good. The
first estimiat of production places the crop at 359 c64g,000 bushels, compared
with the revised first estimate for last year of 346,640,000 bushels and the
final 1939 estimr.to of 370,610,000 bushels. This is the largest April estimate
since that of 1923.

Conditions in central China are favorable for the wheat crop, but in
som other parts of the ccuntrry the outlook is unfavorable and large areas
affected by the floods last year arc still too wet for spring planting.

Conditions for what scoding in Argentina are favorable, and it is ex-
pected that there mar be some increase in acreage compared with that of last
year.

In A..tralia further rainfall is neodede to facilitate the preparation
of the soil and seeding.

Increase of about 250 million bushels expected
in July 15940 world wheat carry-over

The estimated world wheat supply and prospective distribution for the
year begir-i''r July 1, 1939, compared with that of 1938, arc shovwn in table 2.
This includes a downward revision in the 1939-40 disappearance, and a corrc-
rnorni-.g increase in the carry-over figure. As has boon pointed out in previous
statements, the projected fimar.s on disappearance and. carry-over are only indi-
cations. Sources of information aro greatly limited this --',- r by war conditions.
The prod-'.ction estimate for 1939 has not been revised since last month, although
the estimate for Australia may be revised upward in view of the fact that thresh-
i.:- returns are reported to have exceeded expectations.








Table 2.- EstinT'teC world mj.ly iJ/ nd distrib-ition, year
be^-innie Ci.\^ 1938-39

: ".-'r le.'-.ni- Ja '_L. 1 Y Increase
Item : 10, : 193'9 or
_: __s____ -,-s : i .dications : d crease
: Lil. b- il '.. o .. .,il. "..

Carr--over July; 1 2/ ...........: 591' 1,19 5c0
Production ......... ............: 24 0 -
Ctal. supply ........... .: .4___ ___
;."t ,:.crprts from Soviet Rasoia '_ : 1 AS
Total of a:c.- e .........: .1 48 217
DisT e.nr-i-ce ..................: 0..2 _', 27
Car-.'y- wvo.r Julie 30 ..........: 1, 2-4

1/ ":::"l."..' stocks ?:~.L prc ,tAction in Soviet Russia and China.
2/ Differo from fi-s.rao in table 12 of The T..e?.t Situation for February 26,
1940, b .::c..:..: some nev cr -n wheat for the United States, figures for
w7hic]: were -a--..il-.le on1;- beirn.1i..g in 1937.
3j lpt i:nrrts.

Cran ,.' occtries ipoprt.t export position

Stocks of vwhecat in Ca.i-,.. ar la-._o but the export situation is favorable
to that country bLc .'se c:.:-petition from the other three Ia.jor c:-iorting couIn-
tries is great2- limited. O ::orts from the United. States have been curtailed
becoa se of poor "-inter ,hat c::, prospectss j ,rd the provisions f the 193S
A:'ricultural Adjustaent Act vhi :h set ur a rl for the carry-c-r of -30 pcr-
cent of a normal yea-r's c r-voticn aud exports, or appr'::i-::tcly 225 million
bushels. Ar._.-tina, becuaso of a snail 1940 crop and the re.irc-.;.ts of
Brazil and other South Amoricr-n countries whi-h Ar--intina -i.u. u 1,;r supplies, is
-irtually out of the Europ:an markets, except for -..-::yi-,; some w'u .t to the
United. }i.- "-: for 'blor.in-g with th- str-r- C'na-'.ian w-..-. Austraoli ha s an
.ho-.--ncrm.l rburli-1 but is so far from D~ro--,e that hi h shippi -. costs and war-
time trans-ortation risks have greatly roeduc2i the Ccnard for its ...eat in
.r -. rk hUnited :.m, however, has purca.ced si2nlle qu-nti-
ties of Aeistralian kheat, some of *v-ich .Lould move dari.i- the r miindor of the


Cn cs ~:oe'ht rr.i-'ly for ::m-ort or carry-o-'. r on 1pril 1, 19 40, is
estimatjci Q.t J'7 million bushels, comp)_red with 149 million bushels a year
earlier; 4S millionn bushell on April 1, 193-; a .d ., million l.,.-hols on April
1, 1937*. 1-" s-iprly for ':)port or carry-o-er in A ',- -itina on April 1 is esti-
mated at only 53 million "c,.-h.'l, cormparod with 211 million a y,,.r earlier, 55
million 2 yrs erlicr, rynd 5,3 million in 1937. .rhe cor2eo -...i.c figure 0for
Australia on .t-orl 1, !ql'O is placed at 1.` million 'u:.:'ls, compared with 77,
95, nd. Sg million ,Los.:l; on April 1, 1939, 1935, and 1937, respectively. The
cu:-, ..-. otimnrt' for Australi. is b- s.?.' on official export fi'._res thiroui-h

rie rnol ..'"-,ilfle.

Forccatts of not imports I.by 3c:icit countries for the 1939-40 season are
now t-ent tivfly placed at 525 million bushels. This is 4`4 million bushels less


?7F-, -1






WS-42 7 -

than in 1938-39, and a downward& revision. of 35 million buvheis from the
previous estimate. As was pointed out at the time, forecasts of ii-ports
are n-'de with consiLerable reservation, since trade figures for certain
countries are either entirely unavailable or very. late in being received.
Moreover, there is x'enoral uncertainty with regard to -igrements and ship-
ping. The current revisions reflect. the extension of the war, and limited
freight space.

Table 3.- Estinrated .,he:t surplus for export or carry-over in
three exporting countries, United. Kingfon port stocks,
and stocks afloat, April 1, 1937-40 1/



Position : 1937 : 1938 : 1939 : 1940
9 9 *
: Mil. bu. Mil. bu. Mil. bu. Mil. bu.
Canada :
In Canada ................: 73 47 1i7 314
In the United. States .....: 12 1 2 22

Argentina................. 53 55 211 53
Australia ..................: 68 5 77 2/ 15S
Total ........... ......: 206 19 7

United Kinr;ior port stocks .: 13 11 24 )/

Stocks afloat to:
United Kin ;don ...........: 16 11 13 3/
Continent ................: 23 20 7
Orders ...................: 19 11 0 1__
Total .................: Q 5.1 a 54 0
Grand total ...........: 277 251 491

1/ Carry-over at the bei...,.- of the year (Canada,, July 31: Argentina,
January 1; Australia, December 1 of the previous year) plus production, minus
domestic utilization for the year, minus monthly cmxorts to d.to.
2/ Based on official exports through January, supplemented by unofficial
estimates for rcIru,7ry and. IMrch.
3/ Not a- ilal]e.

Prices in _i --e~ and Buenos Aires
Swupyith donmstic pricS

0.cat prices in Winnipeg end Buenos Aires, influenced largely by the
intensified war situation and poor Eu.ropean crop prospects, also advanced sharp-
1:- during the past month. While prices at Buenos Aires have advancedd about the
s-no as prices in Chicago ar.d Kansas City (table 4), those at Winnipeg have ad-
vanced less. Future prices at Buenos Aires for the week ended April 20, ad.-
vancd 9 ccr.ts while those at Chicr.:o rnd Kansas City advanced 8 and 9 cents,
r'e- .ectv ''y, compared with futures prices for the week ended :I-rch 16. On the
ot T .:nd f-aturcs prices at -i: nipcg in the s7a:e period advanced 2 cents. For
the ':eo: headed April 20 May futures at Buenos Aires wore 70.6 cents end at
Winnipeg 82.5 cents, in United States currency converted at the official rate.
In Canadian funds, this price at Winnipeg is 90.7 cents.








Table 4.- Averat'e :-losin- price of Lay v:hc't futures, speciLfied markets
aund d-tcs, 1439 m-.d 940

: verpool: a Is. aYr. -
pqeriod ,e.$ ve .f: '~uenos A.ires Chica-a .- --.

S lT.'19 .u 1939 9O: 1939 Y1-0 13: 1940 1,. 19. ,0 199 19LO
: CT C T. St. Ct. r't ~ t t t C "-.+ '-


i,.;orth
Jan.
Feb.
Lar.
ee'- :
ended
Mlar. 2
9:
16:
23:
30:
Apr. 5 :
13:
20:

High 4/
Low :


62.2 7C'. 8
62.3 7,.1
62.7 80.9


6.0 LO.9
61.2 c1.2
5 .9 80.3
60.5 PO. Y'
6 '.2 81.2
60.0 P1.0
o60.. 8'1.7
6: .7 82.5

62.8 .=2.5
5'.9 76.7


61.6 3/59.5
60. 0 -- ,.5
5 --- .5
5'.6 --- ^. .<
59.6 --- 5';.6
5.5 -- 7
5 .7 --- 59.8
5 .5 --- 59.7


5- /59.9
-- 5/55.A


61.2
61.5
61.6
62.0
62.3

70. C-
70..6


5/70.6
5/57. .


6';./5 100.9 6;,.0
--- O6C.. 301.0 64.6
--- 68.1 103.5 6..'...


6P.7 99.1 6.'. 7
o8.2 107.2 64.2
67.7 102.4 63.8
:7.. 10.' 2 3.9
67.9 105.3 64.2
8. 105.0 6.3.9
,' .0 107.0 64.6
67?.2 110.5 6/.5

70.2 110.5 66.9
'67.7 u.8 6'?.,


.9.5 72.5
95.2 71.0
97.7 70 .1


95.5 71.0
97.2 70.3
96.4 69.4
98.5 70.0
100.0 70.0
]03.C 70.0
101.7 71.2
105.3 70.9

105.3 73.3
91.4 69.4


9,.2
98.7
99.4


99.1
99.8
98.2

100.2
100.4
102.0
104.8

104.8
r..i


1/ Conversion v at noon l-ying rite of exchange 1.93'; 1940 f.~ire- at of'i-
cial rate which is 90.909 cents. Any United States 'ulyer of Canadian grain
would be required to mr.vke settlement in terris of United States dollars
through an agent of the Canadian Foreign Exchange Control Bcard at the offi-
cial rate.
2/ Duty-free wheat.
./ arch futures.
January 6 to April 20, 1940, and corresor- .:,-j'tes for 1939.
5_/ March and .ay futures.

TIE DC.. 2FTC U1.'T EITUATI-

BA:',r'F),. .- Domestic wheat prices from the sprirn-:: of 1??3 to
the sprin-v of 1937 viere unusually high in r.laLiop to wcrld
prices, as the result of .r...11 crops in the UniteiI State- Dur-
ing this sami' period, prices in other c.,minries also mnv-d un-
ward, reflecting a wv: rld-wide r,-c.,,'"ery in cr.j ,odity price levels,
currency depreciation, i..d reduced production. The ave:'a"e
prices r.-:eived by United ST.at,-s producer.' for the 1931 'nd 1932
cro)c were 3? and -': cents, respectively, compared with av 'ra.-
prices for the L. cr'ps, 1933 to 1936 of 74, 65, 83, .:, 10 j
cents per bu-.el, respectively.


2/63.3 --
62.4
60. ---


6.'.l1
5 .5






S-42 9 -

In 1937 United States p-odiction was large and prices to
growers declined to an average of 96 cents. In 1938, with domestic
production a-ain largo, with a record world crop and with lcwer com-
ruodity prices, prices received by producers declined to a.i average
of 56 cents and would have averaged still lower had it not been for
the loan and exoort-subsidy prograr.s which held domestic prices
above export parity.

Prices received by grovwe.rs for wheat during the year begin-
ning July 1939 are expected to average 70 cents or more. This also
is relatively high comipared with the usual relationship to prices in
other cc.ntries, as a result of the*operation of the agricultural
programs and poor prospects for the 1940 crop.

Exports frori the United States have decline: with those from
other surplus -'':heat-producinrg countries fror. about 1926 to 1933.
During the period 1934-36, si-all crops in the United States (the re-
sult of abnormally low yields per seeded acre) were follou d by net
imports. The 1937 wheat crop was greatly in excess of Korcstic
needs, and 1CO mill_.ion bushels of wheat and flour in terms of wheat
were exported under conditions of reduced competition resulting from
siall crops in Canada and Argentina. In 1938 another large crop was
produced, but exports -.'rE the most difficult since 1931 because of
large crops in other countries, and exports of 107 million bushels
were n.:ade possible only by an export-subsidy program. With a 1939
crop only moderately large and prospects of a poor crop in 1940, ex-
ports in 1939-40 have been greatly reduced; it is expected they will
apr.roxLiate only about 50 million bushels.

Total wheat :uop-ly in 1940 may exyeeJ
900 million b'-s',els

The total domestic wheat supply in 1940 is expected to exceed 900 million
bushels according to present indications. This total is based on a winter wheat
crop indicated as of April 1, 1940 at about 426 milli on bushels, a spring crop (in.
eluding d~ru.:) very tentatively placed at 200 million b'.uhels on the basis of aver.
age yields on prospective plantings, and a carry-over of all wheat on July 1, 1940
estimated at about 290 riI' lion bushels. "it prospects that domestic disappear-
ance will approximate 660 million bushels and shipinents to our possessions, 3 mil-
lion bushels, the quantity loft for exports to foreign cou.-tries and carry-over at
the close of the 1940-41 season r'a/ be about 250 million bushels. On the basis of
present conditions, exports in 1940-41 are expected to be small. Under the provi-
sions of the Agricultaral Adjustment A!ct of 1938, the carr; -over goal is 30 percen-
of a normal year's consumption and exports, or approximately 225 million bushels.







WS-42


- 10 -


Table 5.- 'Th-t .r'-.7;, an-I d- strdb-.l irr., by classes, in continental
U;iLed -tats, t..i:.at:.- for i3'-40 anid projected for 1940-41


I-fr : Tot al

: "ill.ion bhels
Year b.- innir.? July 1 1939 :

Carry-ov r July 1, 1930 .......: 254
Prc Iiction in 197,,9 ............: 755
Total supply ............ .: 1,009
Exports a-', ship-1erts ........: 1/ 50
Domestic c'isp" Iarncc ........: 670

Year b.-..'.r.- July 1, 1940 :
(Projected)

Carry-evcr July 1, 1940 .......: 2/ 2.?9
Friction in 1940 ............: 3/ 626
Total supply ............. : 915
Domestic disa::-F.a:'ance ........: 660
Ava-lable for shipments, :
ex crt s, and c.:'r.;-c vr :
July 1, 1K41 ...............: 255
Shl p., .. r:ts ..................... :3
Available for exports and :
carry-over Jy 1, 941 ....: 252

1/ Revised from 40 to 50 r.illior! bushels.
2/ Eev:s-,d from 299 tc 2 9 '1 ilio- bu oels.
j/ See text.

Wint1-r wheat prcdicti-r..- The prrjpective 1940 winter .wheat crop, placed at
426,215,000 bushels on t;-:. basis of April 1 indications, is lover by nearly a
fourth than the 1939 crop of 563,431,000 bushels, and the 10-year (1929-38) aver-
age proCuction of 571,067,000 b-.:h-.ls. The proopect is for the smallest winter
v.'-.e.t production since 1933. Although conditions ir-.rcvcd -enierally from Decenmbel
to .April 1, there was still much uncertainty in some areas, where the outcome of a
considerable acreace of late sovm, un.crminated, and poorly rooted wheat was de-
pendent upon adequate spring moi.Wre.. This situation was most acute in the heart
of the hard winter heat area, centerin. in Noebras.-:a, Kansas, and Oklahorla, and
parts of 'clorad.-c and Texas. (Precipitation April 1-20 was above. average in noort
central. Txas, Oklaxiomr and central Kansas, but r.-.-:rne'd 1-low Everage in eastern
-.nd northwestern To;-as, vcsturn K'isas, I.brrs'-: and Colora.do.)

Pruli.in;:ry indication of the acreage rei:.aining for harvest inc.icated
abandoimreiat of about 29 percent of the 2':-.-d: acrc.a"e. ;..th this hcavy" abandon-
r.cnt to acrea. i-.i..i:.; for harvest would be 3b.'t 31,9C.0,000 acres, 16 percent
urid-r the 53790,000 acres, harvested in 1'39, and closely approxir-atin, the 10-
year aver-.,e h-rvested acreage.






17S-42


The indicated yield per seeded acre was 9.5 bushels. This is 2.7 bushels
lower than the 1939 seeded yield, and 2.5 bushels below the 10-year average.
Yields lo'rer than those of last year and lo,:er than average were indicated in
nearly all States east of. the '.ississippi River. In the Great Plains States yield
prospects .vere very uncertain, and were belovw average by 1 to 5 bushels per acre.
Winter rains resulted in marked iLprovemer.t in conditions in T'st Coast States ex-
tending eastward to M.Uontana, Utah and New Mexico.

Sprin- what, production.- There is little upon which to base an appraisal
of the prospective spring wheat yields this early in the season. The Crop Report-
ine Board will indicate a probable range in sprin- wheat production in its report
on June 10 and ..ill issue its first estimate on July 10. Correlation studies by
the Bureau indicate that, while fall precipitation exercises some influence, the
size of the crop is deter: 'incd chiefly by June and July te:.iperature and April-May
precipitation. Since April 1, precipitation has been above normal in northern
1Minnesota and all of ,Montana, but belori' normal in south.:-rn Minnesota, North Dakota.
and South Da':ota. In the absence of any other basis, average yields for spring
wheat have been assumed in order to sum up the general wheat situation.

If grove r seed to spring wheat the -.c-. ase indicated in the March prospec-
tive plantings report (19.4 i.illioni acress, nd if the 20-year (1920-39) average
yields (10.3 bushels) are obtained, this year's spring :..h-at crop, including durum,
will be about 2'0 million bushels.

Farm disapnar-ace of wheat, Jar.;uary-M. ch, 81- million bushels

Farrm stocks of all ;,heat on April 1 were estimated at 157.5 million bushels
compared with 188.4 million bushels a year earlier and the 10-year (1929-38) aver-
age of 124.9 million bushels. Stocks of wheat wore particularly large in most of
the northern plains Strtes where spring wheat production is important and where
relatively lar:- quantities of wheat re ained on farms on April 1, under Govern-
ment loan, and are included in stocks of wheat on farms.

The indicated disappearance of all :wheat from farms during the J:na-".ry-
IMarch quarter was 81.5 million bushels, compared with 91.7 million bushels during
the same period last year, and the average of 91.6 million bushels. The April fam
holdings of wheat, by classes, iire appr:xir.t-.ly as follows: hard red winter,
54.6 million bushels; soft red winter, 24.7 million bushels; white (winter and
spring combined), 12.4 million bushels; hard red spring, 51.6 million bushels; and
durumr, 14.2 trillion bushels.

Do-icstic wheat prices sharply N'->-iK- r

Do:iestic wheat prices in April advanced sharply from the levels of the mid-
dle of March to the highest levels since 1937. Factors which contributed to this
rise were the intensification of the war situation, pessimistic crop. news from
abroad and larg- Canadia:n export sales. The advance followed a decline during the
middle of March which was influenced by the Russo-Finnish peace developments and
widespread ::reci itation over domestic wheat areas.

The price of ;o. 2 Hard ..inter wheat at Kansas City avera'-d ,1.08 for the
week ended April 20 compared with $1.00 for the week ended March 16 (table 6).
This was the highest price since the week ended October 2, 1937 when the price of
No. 2 Hard 'Tinter wheat at Kansas City was .$1.11 per bushel. The previous high


- 11 -







for th,- seoor wo rs '1.04 for the week or(..' December 23 -.d January 6. No. 1
Dark '."orthcrn .pr-in:- wheat at ':Lmn....oolis for the ...k en.Dd April 20 averaged
1.10 co.:pared with ;.1. 3 for t:e :. e:.dc..l .arch 16, and ..0 for the week
-.ndd January 6. 7",.- ave:, price received by'farnr:rs for wheat on April 15, on
the baris of r..l'-".-t prices, is e:"mcted tc be about 92 cnts. This compares vith
85 cents on March 15, 1940, a.:d 58 cents on Ap il 15, 1939.

T.'at prices in cast.:r. United States mark'-ts have been high erough to at-
tract Pacific --orth]est ca.t and flour to eastern markets most of thc time since
:cv.-Tiber. Part of this has moved by water to Gulf and Atlantic ports, and part by
rail to the .:inter what and spriy.: w'-heat markets of the Middle .'est. Partly with
a view of lessenin., the price spr^_ad, which .:cid re_ ice this r..ovrrq.t, the export
..,ar.:et for the Pacific Coast has recently been extended. On January 19 the rro-
gran to ind::ir.r. r.:norts of both -.-"eat and flour to China and Hong Acng was made
effective: On ''.a"ch 12 this -iuj extended to include wheat to European countries,
and on A:.ril 23 to include flour to Daircr- to faci itate dlitri butiAn to North
China.

'r. at rflces in the United. States continue hih ini cc..rarison with heat
prices in other c .r.1.ries, largely as the result of the Go--c.r-,,unt progran:s and
poor crop r-ospcts. Prices of h'-rd winter wheat at Gulf ports are about 28 cents
per b,.-hel above export parity, and prices of domestic sprin,3 wheat at Buffalo are
only about 9 cents lower than apr.-,xir.itely the same quality of Canadian wheat,
c.i.f., duty paid, at F.ffalo.

Changes in v;hz.at prices in the next few months are ..xz.:cted to continue to
depend Im-.1 upon dvolc e nta 1i thu forei n political situation, v!eaths'r con-
ditiors in oth this countra-- and abroad, and upon the volume of overseas sales of
North American ,-. ,.

Con m~oditv Credt Corioraitioni to take over
loan wheat Zfter April 30

After April 30, all ,193 wheat still under Governiment loan wil] be taken
over by the Cor.'o.:odity Credit C rr- :ration, with the exception of wheat stored on
farms in eligible States. This -wheat may be resealed for one year if notification
of re- -0lib.: intentions }:,'.. been -.e before L..ril .3. The wheat ta',,n over by
the Corrmodity Credit Corporation will be po-lec' and sold, and an; net proceeds
over the loan rate, c rr...ii charges, and all other costs will be distributed
amonT '.r- r.-.icers on a flat per-bu el basis.

The are in which lons. on O193 far..-stord ".,-t :...", be renewed .vas ex-
tendeda or March 21 .o include Kansas, e- ;:exico, Colo)rado, 22 counties in Okla-
hoia, and 2'7 counties in Tes-s.. This will ero, le the farT-ers in the area where
19l0 ;:inter .' st or p prospects are poor to hold more of the 1939 crop if they
desire to do s The previc ii--.y -:_i.!ounced 10 States i:: whichh farm-stored v:h, at is
eligible for re:'.'.;- are': daho, li.esota, Iontana, .jbraska, North Dak:ta.
C.on, -South ..a.:.)ta, 1U' ...' ii.non, and ryo,..ing. On April 13, faa-st.ored
wheat under lor. in -.ll th, Stat, s where loans may be renewed totaled boutt 23
i'll'on buzsels.

s Corioration also announced t]:.t, rye loans r.ay be renewed cn t'-e sar.e
basis as the wheat loans. All the rye -:.-r loan is in fu-rm storage located in 7
States. These are northh Dakota, I'-,itana, Sr-outh Dakota, .-'Lnnesot.a, N!ebraska,
Michigan. and isconsin. On .'th 1a5, the farm-stored rye in,,er loan totaled about
1.3 million hbushels.





- 13 -


Table 6.- Weighted aver-a e cash prie? of ,'.*et :cecif!A l 'ir:ts .nd
dates, 1.? nci y I C

:All cll as .e : rko. 2 : ,o. 1 : s. 2 Har': : l'.. 2 : '.0 eC-In
Honth : and grade. :Hard n.t er :Ck.:2.. prir. :. L ber f r:' n : i I l t e' : "t -
or date :six mar':ets :rIanc:ns Cit : Mi,:.... i :- a Cnn :FF1-2iils : i. C :, I
:193 : :' : .3 :1.i: i'?1 :.93 : 1.,C' :n1 t, n1 3 : c.- :1'':
:.;nts Ce-nt. CenLs Cent s Cenits Ce.trt C r'ts C ts ,-' t 3 '.. t


Month-
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Week
ended-
Mar. 2
9
16
23
30
Aor. 6
13
20


72.6

71.'0


71.1
71.5
70.5

71.3
71.3
72.4
72.8


101. 8
101.0
101.3


101.1
171.2

1 1.2



'- .l.
107.2


70.9
67.2
C1i 9.
6 8.7


6-3.6
67.0

60.2
69. 2

68.7
t..L
C, .' .


2.01.2
S .
10:.1l


90.9
1"".5


1i 3.1
i ..1
4 .3
1: i
2! i


7f'.04

77. C


7 .3

7' -
7 .0


75.

77r.3


174. 3
174, 3




1 L.3




1 '

1 F


'-1.'-F "
72.;

73.7


7/-.1
71..1


"#, .,
'71.5 c
'I-,
.0


7. .

l .4


7 'W, '1
,~.1
.gt-,.


rJch I
4
<'.1
p p v-F
'1
4'.-
'qr. 1
'v-I
4..,
.4
U.
*1 4 -'


7?.l
73.2



7.4'
?. -'**
7-..,
73.0

.. .
Sr- .
I' V
7c ..


1,5.6
iC6.3


, 3. 1

1 5,. o
1t.0
1 6.6
I '- '
F- '.4*C
-. 7. :
"L. :.7 L
1, .6
] '-.
11./


2 5
C?.?
f" .5
C7. .


87. q
1-7.
66..
- 7 -'

63.2
0 ,'.
6 .2 .
76. i


F4. 4




3 .4



S3.
P3.0
-,3.3

83.0


Hiph 2 : 7 3 1' 7.2 71.7 1 "''.3 'r.p ",.0 I:.. 7 .
Low 2," : ( .f 6 .7 3 63.2 .' 7-.9 ] '". ".." 5 71. .
i/ We3-Kly average of daily cash mtat.:t it'::s, .. if. 1 s.:
2/ January 6-April 2 `1, 4l''A?, andG curresn'r.-l'.. d'it's fr 1 -.


Table 7.-


P-riod


111."9 7".h ?o.Q
i'C: .'? ^ 6 ., 23.2


IP.rgiis btv.u-r. do"'e ti, i .'".: t p:;i-r ",rid Fric-s at ilnr.ine*,
193 YuCi iI'l .r i'


: .-::"::;tiic :!.-ri:.ts :t5 b..", I1 '3 *:,3th.1r'i Spoinr

: !!o. 1 r'a '.: : ;.!.:. 2 ,4' r i!t -'r : .u. R.d
:Porth.:rn Sorin- :-------: Li'.itr
:___ 'i__n_:_1_ : _____ ; 's" C 't" : 1--:' .o : St. LC,.s
.... I U '. ':' .A C : ,


'.onth of Jan.

1 9 3 5 ,: .'.. .2_ ____7. -i. __ _
1'?4 5 ''
Diffuren i.. __
monthh of Fe-'.
194.0 31. 2 .
1935 ___,.. -.2__ ___,____
Difference : -- .,.-. ..
onth of M;.xr.

1935 : ..
Difference : '. ..
3ee. \ 'ee. of Apr.
1940 : 2.. 2".3 .., )- ? 6

differencee : -- .1.. -' '".
1/ .linnip-=g pri'-.:3 in 1 i'< :'n 'rt *d :at .,ffI'.ci': _- ; .. f .*. c jit .- .nv, i Un"it ..:'
States bu.~v r of Canadian t rain 'cu'l ..- re ji,-:d to ,n -*:,." tt .t n t of
Unit d States dollars through an a.,;-nt of ti. Candian .i r.ik r. x xchIangc- Cit rol
Board at th.. official rz t.


I






- 14 -


Table 8.- monthlyy overseas clearances of wheat, in comp-arison with the customs


exports 'of what and v'r1.eat f1,nir, by month", Agust


1933 February 1.940


: verseas : U.S. LL parts


Yar and
month


193f-3?
Aug.
Sept .
Oct.


Jan..
Feb.

Apr.

June
July
Total
1939-40
A g.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec. *
Jarn.
Feb.
Aug.-Feb.
1939-40
Aug. -Feb.'
1' ??-3 ?


cleurai-ices3
of Cani.liai
wlie i t


; E---:lah I
'
S: 6,87.2,t55
: ] ),'1.3,Li._
: 22,i 2"

.: 6,767,'3:,
: 8,,5,,226
1 "(. ,- -.5'
S ,-',52,3 1

: 3,6.62,25]i
: 1 07.-,a'.. s
: 1 0 ,7 1 "! u "
S i / -'
.* 2 .L.
S 1 ,
: 3.C6,253


1!,12'",5: 4
-~i .~-4

11, 11,2 '
1-5,92 ,2 ..
J .


: of CaniadLar
:;.heat for ccn-
: su.ption and
:mllillinJ in bor.d
'ust.el

9,;-A
92 ,770
1,224,723
S- 5531
985 .

1, 7, ,13
.897,765

1 ,O'iO,' 17
1., ', 725


17.276 ,5~i


94 72
9L,".ll7
/ "L, L '... '
-* -p- -.
996 ,'11
1.03: 5 -
J''- '""
3 I

1..' 12. 0


Custurms


: exrprts :
: of :
: Canadi.an :
:'-.he-t floor :


1, 28.,215
1,1,L 26
2,37., 70 5
2,15';,/.37
1,6:,2,832
1,707,921
1,3C3,447

1,233,739

1, 8 5,75 -
21 5 2
?2:.71 ,101
_L


1,706,742
1,37. ,,,39
1,9r3,64.A
2,577,6 5
4, '62,213
3,.26 3--
2,57,.'2;


T -,t.al.l


Bushels

t,176,'W74
1 r' o j 4
16,2162,50
26,272,26/0
22,137,18
,?P ,753
11,149,031
9,606,590
7,973,110
5,977,025
17,996,576

12,16,3 '.3


].L,"'..34 I'3 3


13 ,1 877
& ,L R,62,'
9 ,. 9 1, '4

,2'. 3.22

1 ''] 1.3.


Custans
cxoorts
of
wheat and
wheat flour;


bushels i

7,554,270
14,053,684
26,758,075
23,853,951
17,625,408-
9,586,884
7,054,780
8,187,661
4,070,350
1,976,267
16,442,366
15,5'95,751


lo6,)959,447j


11,979,671.1
17,515,631
18,827,495
23,212,8L4
38,474,661
13,621,527
y,115,258


: 14. 3 532:.L.L.3 "1>-' '8 I ,i ,i6 132,767,08"J

: 5 ...^? 1 5 3 l 2./10 i06,637,052.
hi n t -,T l J, *" -" '--' ,i_ ___l,__ __ __


1/ u :1.ic.t t r vi.i-: -.
aj t if -'...e ..-:1 :1.m 2f Can.' ii 'n h-' t h:jr& .:hilp ,d overseas via Unit-'
ed i .t t-:; i? r, : thi. s-a s n, t -er' io ...an uni-' di. if.-rence bzetL een Canada's
exr,..-'t '. ur-: :.? : d:' i., th: .v.' r.-i- c .L'JVarciI, 2, ar.. in the Cujto~s .: *> ,ct returns.
Thi- diff:'en:' i du ri'r.arily to the fact t..-.t tnrli :'r3.ra3as clca ranges do not in-
clu: ,.'. t r.:vi. .!: t r-.n:i2 thrD,'. in th i.t t id .t i '- s until it it.1 cleared for over-
sea ., v'l-.-.r-. C. '..n ,-. .: .t .tu rnl incliu-... JC vrh.-.t as. iLt TA .e' intc the United
Sta*-.. C, ,:- .qu., ,i 1 I th.. a3'.tLuu r.-nth^, v'hh, .n ,C.':n r'ai.'in u,'--at l.-oc'ks in United
Star .-. -it ,: n n..:..1 uiilt up in ".rticir-,,i:-r f v.int.:r ov Ar. n-. shipmn nts,
the "u t :.:- .ot ..xc':ti.d thu:-. f th: o -isr. -~ e'L.- rnc: r ,cords. DurinE January
and F t ri:r',', ,.,v v. th. .:"'-s h .-. b'-.-:n trm -,... r-t c-.3 t th- Aa rican se aboard
.'. .. -,-:. ,:,i. u :., -r :P hipm -nt n vr.' :." Ti? situ tin i. i illustrated in the
table: a3C.-. ., wv .:- 't. t :tS of i export records ir 7i.-iv:wn monthi.v f-r the August-
Febru-rY .-d, L '3 ., itn e no-icnrn f'.r t.h .ir --ious crop -=ar. It will be
not- id hat t!- f i: -. ,:n rt. ::c:-.d d th o,. r. ... cl-yrap.c- c. by 6.9 million
bus.hc1. int tn- 1 .- cr'p y-.r ..-c-.r; Canradian uhz:t stock in th,- United States
shc.oj,,d a n-t in,:r a- : of '. np r:y ..Tt 'ly ti'-. .m-r .a-ount 'during that. cron y.4:'.

From: "..:r t h.) .,: vi ', of th... 'h.nt Sit-latti n," Vol.. 17, No. 7.. Dc;inioni urau of
S-t i-t i" .,rriculWiral 5r rnc, Oi tt., Canada. M a rch 21, ~,4,'.


WS-42


r j







W3-42


- 15 -


Table 9.- Movpmrent of -he-t, inc'lrinr flour, frcm principal exporting
countries, 1 9 -37 to 1935-S0

: __ Eort- i__-en__bLoffic" l sources ___
Country : o-.,l : Jul.- 1 to date shcmn : Date
: ffi3-7J: l^,-?.._15 :,-b. 9_-9373 :19j3;-39 ;Q39-40 :
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
bushelss bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels


United States l/
Canada ..........
Argentina .......
Australia .......
Soviet Union ....
Hungary .........
Yugoslavia ......
Rumania .........
Bulgaria ........
British India ...
Total ......


.... : 21,58
.....: 213,028
.....: 162,977
.....: 97,712
.....: 4,479
.....: 27,428
.....: 17,9511
.....: 36,258
* ....: 7,275

....:_ 605,266


107,194,
94,546
69,670
123,453
43,354
9,368
5,012
32,210
8,489
19,677
512,973


115,784
1;9, 885
116,116
96,685
2/38,000
27,650
5, 346
43,940
2,633
10, 097
616.136


65,855
78,766
42,964
47,551

6,10o4
4,585
23,818
5,632
10,506


73,893
123,396
45,311
48,815

15,4998
4,298
26,176
179
8,207


39,635
160, 211
115,076
34,231

29,276
6,660
22,585
4,749
/1.' 837


,/.87Nv


Feb. 29
March 31
Feb. 29
Jan. 31


Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Nov.


: __ __Shipment7 as piven by trade sources
: Total : We-k ended 1940 : July 1: Apr. 20
:1937-3 :1938-39 :A. 6 r. 6 :r. 13: Ar. 20:1938-39 938-39 :1939-40
: 1,OC 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,010 1,000 1,000
:bushels bushels buh.bls bushels bushels bushels tuchels


North America 4/ .....: 184,720 245,296
Canada 5/ ............: 94,546 159,885
United States 6/ .....: 83,589 94,157
Argentina ............: 66,928 114,272
Australia ...........: 127,520 102,11b
Soviet Union ..........: 42,248 39,824
Danube ind Bulgaria 8/: 37,232 52,848
British India ........ :9'19,677 9/10,097
Total, a-',ve l2/ : 478,325 564,4Y53
Total Eur" e :
shipmc-nts L/ ... 397.592 450,784
Total ex-Eurore:ar:
shipments / ...: 99,400on 146,760


5,034
4,6o00
451
4,070

0
352
0


3,811
2,700
1, 140
4, 2'3

0
616
0


4, 696'
4,200
528
2,651

0
704
0


192,552
130,200
73,239
68,960
48,815
39.736
40, 224
6.220
-iq6. 4q'^


396. 31. 6,


167,387
171,700
36,638
135,218
1/34,231
2,342
32,472
0
371. 650


1/ Includes flour milled in bond from foreign wheat.
g From official sources. Through December supplemented by unofficial estimates fi
the following six months.
/ Excludes land trade for Kcvember 1939.
/ Prc., Broomhall's Corn Trade News.
5/ Official custo-is exports as reported to date, supplemented by weekly estimates
derived by subtracting the United States exports from Broomhall's estimate for
North America.
6/ Official reports received from 16 principal ports only.
i/ Through September 2 only. Not -vailable subsequently.
/ Black Sea shib erts only.
/ Official.
10' Total of trade figures includes North America as reported by Broomhall's but
does not include items 2 and 3.


or


m I I .... .






7TS-4 2 1I -

Table 10,- E.Torts of rhe-t rn.1 -,:.. .1'.ur .rz.. the United( Sites,
Y193.- -' 1-: 1.,-'D

J(",'cB e flour r1n,1 -: or..a .._ ,____
: : : Knhcat
P er iod6 :,_... .- : '.u' i lu.-n c flot r .,

;*"-3 .,0 1IC 1, ; 1,c0.0
: ... : vt .s -_r .. ..cre r.a tunhe s
Jui-:-Febr:arr'o :

t.:. e.. ,.-' .. ,, 17,23 3,3 7 4,765 73, S3 39,635
:.:ar. o : r, 21,-, 7., l 2, 9 1 1, 820
1' : :1, 7 1, ..:. .) 1,2 2,-33 1. ?
123 : 1 10- 1 1O9
,J 3 F,. 3 b1
A- .rr. c. r2 2 J" -4 ,.h
S 1 ,.7 ,r. 9 0 1,4 7 t 1f05
7. "-





: ... 2, 1 6..-2/ .28
C il d r: rr.o f ;. :. r- t 5. rc .


'( I1.:.P F"0 3'. :. i -:: .1 S .- L b ."i" r: are not av9il4.bl 3
.h'e e .*t r- -rose'-. "'c ,t .:* 1 -f "' *.ri .i1... po-t' I
2A urelim inu-:1.

TaJ Ie 1.1.- S'i n -n i .'.,' t, 7"! f." f 4 ,r, r.f -.-1 ,T .r. ,l .
I -. -'-L' -



2 rio :
t-- 11. :S : :,1 t, fo 5 a : '

c C.

1 ,,. ,_ _I, ._.C 1,," 1,",60 1,000


Jrly-^r .ri ,772 '.7 1 37.60 1r7, 352 1 1C14
Tcek e"nde.- :
Mar. : 72 1, '4 .6 7,571
o : "-.7 :, "' 7, 2- 4 5,245
-23 "" 2,1 3 .72,
-'4 5. 39
.Ar.r. 3,7 -'' 3.-52 .034
,. ?, -', ,',. 7 3. 5''7, 2 3 ,$ 11
.Mar.P ?. : 2 -. 2, I -7 p1 1:I. -1,,"- T4,-1 7, "7

S- 1, 6 1 1 1,- '. ",i 4,7sO 4, 696
"Am.p .-.. 3,,-5.,

. ; -* ,. --- : .. r,'-..y ..
._c ot ..:-.. l i .... L,







'7 -

Table 12.- Not inmp rts of wheat including flour, into European
co-u-trie;, P!p:L' y%'innZg July 1, 1937 to 1939


PuCortedl net imnorts


S39
:Juiy 1 to:19rc-39


:1939-40


Sill ion
* 0


Be! gium ................
Czechosl .v.':-ia .......... :
Dermark ............... :
Fi land .................
Fr'a:zr e I. .. ......... .... :
Garn.ry .: )
Au t t r -a ........... :)
Greecoe ..............
IrelaLd. .................
Ital, .................. :
L atvia ................ .,
Ietherlar-ds .............
Norw.a;. ..................
Polan'. ..................
P rti.gal ............. :
Sde.T-tL .. ..........
Swit zerland ............. :
tUhited e d rg om .... ....
Total ir-mports of :
above ............ :
Svain ...................
Totr l imports ........
Toral exports .........
Total -urcpean net
imports ,..........:
Shipments to non-Europe
ToMal ERliropamn net im-:
ports and. shipments to
non- ... o ........ ..:


~I- 1
0
3
1*~
-2.:,


Mi lion


39
2! 1
5
2
2/ 2


54 45
IS 14
14 17
5 11!

24 ?
7<

1 4
.2/ 12
14 17
193 220


Million
bu sh e s


:rov. 30
:A--. 31
:Feb. 29
:--.u. 31
:Juy 31

:July 31
:Jan. 31
:Aug. 31
:July 31
:Aug. 31
:Jan. 31
:Jan. 531
July 31
:iTov. 30
:Sept. 30
:Dec. 31
:Au,?. 31


19
1
4
1.
1

2
7
2
3
I/
17


3
1
10
38


Million


1g
3
3

2/- 2

1
7
3
2
0
17
9

4/


4g


391 410
-- 1_


39S
2


432


114
0


122
- 2


2 26 114 120
99 '47


573


Comriled from offc..:al source. s except as otherwise stated.

/_ Fce>ec't of net imports for the entire year found in WS-37, November 1939,
Sp. 8.
Fet e:".xprts.
Less :a.r:- 500,000 b-.shols.
_'3t exports of les2 than 500,01r bushels.


Country


9138-79


ITS-42






-- 1c -


Table 13.- nit. States .crr -, : ... --r, yield re r acre, arnd
.:"..c:.:cfon ; all sh -., 1919 to da-le


Year a e -

I ;cc


1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1o25
1926
1927
1928
1929


1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1933
1939
10 0 7


77,440e

67.977
6?, 6.;]

6 5 1
55,706
61,738
60, 712
65 ,65
71,152
66, 40


O0 5,9' 9
65,913
603,4bL'
63, 52
6, 20'7
73,724
1,072
719,555
63. ,8'


12.4
12.1
12.6
11.8
15.1
10.8
13.7
13.3

1 .3




8.1
8.3
9. 1
8.5
10. 8
11.7
11. q


Pro,'.: cticn


C~.". 2, O 97

.' 3,277
818, 95
" A ',649
759:. ..?
841,617
668 : IC
832,213
c75,059
- ,,373
23,217


9 1, 74
7 ,27

526,393
626, 344
626, '66
875, 676
9312,02
2/ 754,971


1/ Drelinr.na3y indicatYions.
2/ Production f--e publish:
page IS, correc-:.ed.


.-t Situation', :..-rch 26, 1940.


: 44,L


VWS3-42






- 19 -


Table 14.- Fcpcrrntrt-e monthly sales of Twheat and r'y? by farmers,
United States, average 1927-36 and annually 1927-38


S: P_____ercertLae cf tot al sales during
e nJune July Sept :Nov. :Dec.:Ja. Feb. :Apr. June
beginning : June :July :A'ug. :Sept.:Oct. :Nov. :Dec. :Jan. :Feb. :i11'. :Apr. :May :June
June*** *


Per-


he at.
Average 1/,:
1927-28 to:
1936-37

1'27
1928
1929
1931:
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938

Average I/,:
1927-28 to:
1936-37 :


1927
1C23
192?
1930

1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
-1939


Per- Per- Pur- FP'r- Per- Per- Per- Per- Per- Per- Per-


cent cent cent cent cent


5.4

2.7
1.4
5.2
4.4
6.2
4.9
9.3
11.9
2.5
5.8
9.1
5.7


23.8 19.3 13.6


15.1
18.3
25.6
26.0
26.9
38.5
21.9
30.4
19.2
35.4
30.2
24.9


18.0
18.4
22.2
20.2
1c'. 5
19.3
19.8
15.3
25.8
15.8
16.3
17.3


19.8
17.3
14.0
"11. 9
10.0
14.0
13.3
9.4
17.7
8.7
10.4
11.6


cert cent cent cent cent cent cent


8.5 5.2 4.7


12.6
12.0
.8.6.
6.9
7.9
7.9
7.0
5.2
9.7
6.8
6.0
7.8


0.1 11.8 23.2 19.2 12.0


0
0
0
0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1


3.7
3.7
10.6
12.3
11.7
7.7
21.1
22.0
5. 9
18.8.
16.6
13.3


19.1
18.2
32.6
32.3
21.5
17.8
23.3
27.5
IS.4
20.0
.32.7
32.6


27.4
28.7
20.4
22..3
15.1
13.4
14.6
16.9
18.4
14.3
16.9
15.0


17.0
17.7
12.6
11.5
10.7
8.9
9.8
8.8
13.5
10.0
8.8
9.3


7.8
7.2
4..8
4.4
4.6
5.5
5.0
4.2
4.5
4.3
3.8
4.7


5.3
5.4
4.5
4.7
4.5
4.8
3.7
4.4
3.8
5.6
4.0
4.7


3.7 3.8 3.4 3.1


4.5
4.2
3.1
4.7
3.9
3.6
3.7
2.9
3.7
3.1
3.8
3.6


4.0
4.2
2.9
4.8
5.5
3.5
3.4
3.5
2.5
3.4
3.9
3.2


3.7
3.5
2.5
3.5
3.4.
3.5
3.5
2.9
3.4
3.8
3.3
3.7


2.5
2.8
2.4
3.2
3.4
4.4
2.7
4.4
2.6
2.7
3.9
3.9


3.3

2.7
2.7
2.6
4.0
3.8
5.4
3.1
3.5
2.2
2.9
3.3
5.2


Per-
cent



2.2


1.3
2.1
1.6
1.3
1.4
4.7
3.6
2.0
2.4
1.7
2.0
3.7


7.3 5.4 4.0 3.6 3.8 3.1 3.3 3.2


9.9
10.2
7.4
4.8
8.4
6.4
7.1
5.1
7.6
6.5
5.2
4. 9


5.4
6.0
5.6
4.3
6.5
4.9
4.6
4.2
5.5
7.4
4.2
4.0


4.5
4.2
3.2
2.6
5.9
4.6
3.9
2.7
4.8
4.1
3.5
3.4


4.1
3.3
2.0
2.7
5.4
3.6
3.7
2.4
4.3
4.7
3.6
2.3


3.6
2.9
1.6
1.9
5.2
4.7
3.9
2.8
6.9
4.5
3.1
3.3


2.0
1.9
1.4
1.9
3.8
6.3
2.7
2.4
4. 5
3.9
1.7
2.9


1.9
1.6
1.4
1.8
3.2
8.9
2.6
2.7
5.0
3.6
1.9
4.0


1.4
1.6
1.2
1.6
2.5
12.7
2.6
2.3
4.1
2.0
1.7
4.9


/ Averp~g fi-ur.-s published in. The ,hkat Situation, January 26, 1940, page 18,
correct ed.


WS-42




I ... ..-....


WS-42


- 20 -


UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA

3 1262 08861 8888


|fEWT TO FTD ST'ATTSTIC3 7, T ,,E E..T .1 TAT (', iCt.T IPL'JrYD IN THIS ISSUE .:1


THE j( ..r 'm, Q S I.1 T.2'
Su___ a "list i''_ ";.i,-nI
.'...-3' .... ....-.. 3 .
... 2 -2.. 1 23 7 an u 1 .

Pro* ict ior
i c ij co u.tr .es, -3 .
Q C':-........* "I.

Stoc':-, ul'. 1






*..
-. . .
.iaic- r ,-.;*jr .u :;' cojtr~ies ?.i.' arian1 t, 19"2-39




'r.- rn.t ir.al t. c, i.: i. via f lop ur, i C -3' .
icrwlcl sl TLJ3' s iad to E..ropn a'".G "0 .*"- p,
a-: ra-E s l:.C-. 17 3 -,, cnd an:u .

DUE if,-3" '.LT IT.'rCL
Su-p' -0 i Ec r '>u t.. n
Altl .'ket, 1 2 . .. t
in ., l -'. '.. . .
Clarcmu ., .lr :.-'.' I -, ': 3, '. '.. .

.193 -.. '. ... c .1 ..' .- '., bL : c.s .

Pro i.ct tio
C. It J.5 LE S J L . .
l ce . ....... ..

Stoc0
ui t: 1, 1 '._3- -- . . .
Ja'urr.T r ., 1 *L 6-.' 0 . ..

Excor t. : n.: : c0v
Expr o .. 2. 3 n..1 Li.-'-.. l '.uw to !;.- ci-Lif
co nt,1.ieB, I', -3 . .
. .
EL -ort. _- t,-' L'. cc.Lrieo, s f".-
.n u i- 'L ._ ., . .
E.? ; .l:_ L. '. t : r'>l 'i n. c :nt r2 $s,
Se i- al, L .. i ... n J -- ." 3 .
I"--r.- i.to tn :- itU. 3-.;.^: r -3p .

Pri '7 n -i .ir:,,..e
8*-i- I r :- p'r-rih .til, ;ni c T-h- .ncc',re 1T.(-'
Aver-.-" -.r':.e reL viJ.', b.' fn:T'.e:rs QPn l. U nited,
I SLe t- a. t ;_. -' . .
- Sl---.; J -
1/~~~ ~ .<1 .2 .w .a .t]..


18
a


Issue

Feb. 1940 WS-40
SeAt.1939 'S-35


5 Jan. 1940 WS-39


Oct. 1939 W3-36
Feb. 1940 WS-40
Aug.. 1939 WS-34



Feb. 1940 WS-40
Jan. 1940 WS-39


7 S-pt.1939 MS-35



14 Feb. 1940 MW-40


Sept. 139 73s-35
Fob, 1940 WS-40
liar. 1940 qS-41


J9;.. 9.o 'TS-39
F b. 1939 7s-28


- Fte. ":L W4S-40-
Feb. 194. VIS71-40


21 Teb, 1394CT TS-40-
13 Jar- 1939 ,'S-27

19 Fe JS'40 WS-.4T'

23 Feb, 140 ,S-4O-
27 Au?:. 2939 WS-34-


Fe'L -.940 M3-40 -


17 lar. 1940-WS-41


- STAT IN T0I *. TIH 7TY 5rI T' .'.. ....T ITmATCjIT'I" FEE'!ARY 26, 1940
-ST d p[. Al q ..I 17F, "'[ T ll TY;', .~ L T _, i[ : -V, : l l '

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