Wheat situation

5~ ." '1/


TH E


SITUATION

BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


MARCH 26, 1940


THIS ISSUE HAS BEEN PREPARED WITH PARTICULAR
REFERENCE TO THE REPORT OF THE CROP REPORTING BOARD
ON PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS FOR 1940. IT BRINGS UP TO
DATE THE 1940 OUTLOOK FOR WHEAT, WHIfCH WAS ISSUED
LAST NOVEMBER BY THE BUREAU IN COOPERATION WITH
FEDERAL AND STATE EXTENSION WORKERS.


ALL WHEAT: ACREAGE SEEDED. YIELD PER ACRE.
AND PRODUCTION. UNITED STATES. 1919-40


WL U*fli mta r aeTIL iea..,c


THE ACREAGE SEEDED TO WHEAT FOR HARVEST IN 1940 IN THE UNITED
STATES IS INDICATED AT 64 MILLION ACRES, OR ABOUT THE SAME AS A
YEAR EARLIER. THIS IS MATERIALLY LESS THAN THE ACREAGE FOR THE 1937
AND 1938 CROPS, BUT IT IS ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW THE 66.9 MILLION ACRES
SEEDED IN THE 5-YEAR PERIOD 1929-33, DURING WHICH ACREAGES CHANGED
LITTLE.


WS-41


* PmrINH4ARY


aa agaT & Was













WHEAT: WORLD SUPPLY AND PRICE, 1923-39


;UFF tY
3USHELS )
BILLIONS



5.0




4.6



4.2



3.8


1923 1926 1929 1932 1935 1938
YEAR BEGINNING JULY
AVERAGE BRITISH PARCELS DEFLATED BY STATIST INDEX NUMBERS (1910-14'100)
A PRELIMINARY


PRICE
(CENTS PER
BUSHEL



130



110



90



70


U S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


NEGC 20691 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE I


WHEAT: SPREAD BETWEEN PRICE AT KANSAS CITY AND LIVERPOOL,
AND U.S. SUPPLIES FOR EXPORT AND CARRY-OVER, 1923-39
CENTS PER I I I I I
BUSHEL SPREAD BETWEEN KANSAS CITY
20 AND LIVERPOOL


-20 --- ,f- 'I No. 2 Hard Winter., -

-40 Kansas City l

BUSHELS
(MILLIONS) U.S. SUPPLIES FOR EXPORT -
AND CARRY-OVER* Carryoverr
Carry-over
400 10-YEAR AVERAGE -
40........... .. Net exports
or imports
300 ---- -


200 _- -- EXPORTS -



100 --

0


1923 1926 1929 1932 1935 1938
YEAR BEGINNING JULY
*CARRY-OVER PLUS PRODUCTION LESS DOMESTIC UTILIZATION ESTIMATED


U.S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


FIGURE 2


NEG 34440 BUREAU Of AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


WORLD WHEAT SUPPLIES FOR THE 1939-40 SEASON ARE THE LARGEST ON RECORD, AND
PRICES IN FOREIGN MARKETS HAVE DECLINED TO VERY LOW LEVELS. THE OPERATION OF THE
GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS AND POOR WINTER WHEAT CROP PROSPECTS HAVE HELD WHEAT PRICES
IN THE UNITED STATES CONSIDERABLY HIGHER RELATIVE TO WORLD PRICES THAN THEY
WOULD OTHERWISE HAVE BEEN. (BRITISH PRICES HAVE BEEN UNAVAILABLE SINCE SEPTEMBER
2, 1939, AS THE RESULT OF THE CLOSING OF THE BRITISH RAIN MARKETS).






WS-41


-3-


THE WHEAT S ITUAT ION


Summary

The domestic wheat supply in 1940-41 is expected to total approxi-

mately 900 million bushels according to present indications. This total

is bazed on a winter wheat crop indicated as of December 1, 1939 at about

399 million bushels, a spring wheat crop (including durum) tentatively

placed at 200 million bushels on the basis of average yields on the pro-

spective plantings, and a carry-over on July 1, 1940 estimated at about 300

million bushels. The total domestic supply in 1939-40 was 1,009 million

bushels, consisting of a carry-over of 254 million bushels and a crop of

755 million bushels.

On the basis of supplies of 900 million bushels, prospects that

domestic disappearance will be about 660 million bushels, and shipments

to our possessions of 3 million bushels, the quantity available for export

to foreign countries and for carry-over on July 1, 1941 would be about 237

million bushels. It is expected that exports in 1940-41 will be small.

(Under the provisions of the Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1938 the carry-

over goal is 30 percent of a normal years consunption and exports, or

approximately 225 million bushels.)

While prospective spring whe.t production has been interpreted in

terms of averv-e yields in order to summarize the situation, such an in-

terpretation is not to be considered as an estimate. The Crop Reporting

Board will indicate a probable range in spring wheat production in its re-

port on June 10 and will issue its first estimate on July 10.

There is still much uncertainty concerning prospects for winter

wheat, -nd tihe full effects of the extremely dry fall planting season will






7S-41 4 -

not be known for several weeks. weather during the past winter would

indicate some improvement in the condition of the crop since December 1,

particularly in the Pacific Northwest -nd in much of the eastern soft

winter wheat area. Subsoil moisture, however, is still very deficient in

rarts of the eastern soft winter wheat area. In much of the Great Plains

area a heavy acreage loss. is certain, the result of the shortage of moisture

to the first of the :year. Light to h1-avy snows furnished protection dur-

ing the cold weather in January: and Fcbrua.ry in the area east of the Rockies,

and little winter kill has been reported as yet. Surface moisture is suf-

ficient for sprouting wheat and for present needs but subsoil moisture is

extremely short over wide areas and will have to be offset by adequate and

timely rains to prevent heavy loss.

The 1940 wheat crop in many other countries has been handicapped by

a poor start, and will require f.avorble conditions for the remainder of

the growing season to make average yields per acre. With no incr-aso in

acr.:a-e -probable, it seems reasonable to expect that the 1940 world wvheat

crop will be smaller than that of 1938 or 19539, when yields were above

-avervo,;e. This would result in a reduction in the lie- world cr-ry-over

by July 1941.

7Tnheat prices in the United States are e:-xpected to continue to averl-

ag- relatively hi,-- comne.red with -r:ces in other rplus-'pr .eLing coun-

tries as long as the GovOrnarnt loan and e-orz szib..v ro,-ra-,s continue,

and domestic production is not iT: vc. If --',act cr in ether countries of

the world t'r.s out to be less than di --' ..... "e in I 4C--l, .ni supplies

aro thore-ry reduced, some improvement in ivoi]d. '-J do' rices mi:.ht be cx-

pected to follow. Any irnrovoa7ent in th]r world commodil, uric-' lev,'l would







WS-41


also make for higher wheat prices in foreign markets. Advances in world

wheat prices might tend to reduce the margin that domestic prices are

above export parity.

Changes in domestic wheat prices in the next few months are ex-

pectpd to depend largely upon weather conditions in both domestic and

foreign countries, developments in the foreign political situation, and

upon the volume of overseas sales of North American wheat.

TIE WHEAT OUTLOOK FOR 1940-41

BAC.C-ROU.D 1/.- The acrpa,7e seeded. to wheat for harvest in 1939
in the United States was 63.9 million acres, which represents
a ve:' large reduction from that seeded for the 1937 and 1938
croft s, when 81.1 and 79.6 million acres, respectively, were seed-
ed. However, the acreage is only moderately below the average
of 66.9 million acres for the period 1929-33, during which acre-
ages changed little (figure, page 1 and table 9).

World wheat acreage 2/ has been steadily increasing over
a period of years, culminating in the largest acreage on record
in 1937 and 1938 (table 12). World production, however, has
varied in recent years because of wide variations in yield per
acre. In 1931-36 yields per acre were considerably below aver-
age and prod-action was iall. In 1937, with more nearly normal
yields, production was again large, and in 1939, with very high
yields per acre, the largest world crop in history was produced.

W', rld trade in wheat has declined sharply since the peak
of over 900 million bushels in 1928-29, largely as the result of
drastic restrictions on imports and increased production in major
importing countries. In the early part of this period exports
from the United States declined with those from other surplus-
producing countries. During the period 1934-36, small crops in
the. United States (the result of abnormally low yields per seeded
,acre) vere followed by net im-ports (figure on page 2). World
wheat and flour shipments in 1937-3g wore about 500 million
bushels and in 1938-39 were about 600 million bushels coirTpared
with over 900 million bushels in the peak year of 1928.



1/ See also backround statements on pages 12 and 15.
2J All references to world acreage, production, and stocks in this report
exclude Soviet Russia and China except where noted.


- 5 -







- 6 -


Indicated l_9~O seedd' acres about unch-Kn.jevd
but indicated produc1 ion r.dtqced

On t'e basis of the March 1 reports frCm growers 3j regarding their
acreage plans for the 194~ season, anL area of 19.4 million acres is now
indicate- for serdinr to sprin-'; wheat. This acreage would be about 11
percent larger than the 17.5 million acres seeEed last spring (when seed-
ings were the lowest in 15 years), but still about 13 percent below the
10-ysar (1929-3g) average. The acreage seeded to winter -,hcat for harvest
in 1940 was estimated in December at 45.0 million acres. This, together
with the acrrage indicated for spring wheat results in a total preliminary
indication of 64.4 million acres, which conparcd with 63.9 million aXcros
seeded for h-rvest in 1939-

Increased scedinfc are indicated for all the important spring \Wheat
Stnatos. The principal hard red spring wheat States show an increase of
about 9 percent, -Thich represents an absolute acreage increase of atout
1-1/3 million acres, the largest acreage increase of anry area. In the
Pacific !Trthwest where dry weather prevented intended sendings of -7inter
wheat, present indications point to spring wheat seedings one-third larger
than those of last spring, or ch increase of 400,000 acres. In the less
important qrring wheat States cast of the i sssisippi River the net change
is a decrease of about 2 percoit.

Of the total spring wheat racr.-ane indicated for 1940, 3.5 million
acres are durum wheat, and 15.9 million acres of other spring wheat. The
prospective acreage of durun wheat is 96.4 percent of the 10-year (1929-38)
average, mand of other spring wheat 85.1 percent of averr.;e. In the arca
which grows durum Vwh .-at as well as oth7r spring wheat, the rate of increase
indicated is about t le same for both, the 1940 acreage for du"aun v:hc.rt
being 109.9 percent and for other s-.rinsr -heat 10o.8 prorcrnt of 1939.

Table 10 shows the seeded acr.: ~ of spring .:heat in recent -cyars
by areas, and table 11 the acr,: ae, yield per acre, and production of durum
and other spring wheat the'inning with 1926.

If growers soed to spring wheat the acreage indicated in the prospec-
tive .pl,-rntings report (19.4 million acres), and if the 20-:-car (1920-39)
average. yields (10.3 bushels) are obtained, this years spring ;-,at crop
including durem will be about 200 million bushels. A winter whect rroduc-
tion of 399 million bushels was indicated in Decernber, based on the past re-
lationship between December 1 condition and y-ield prr Eoc?'Ld 'crc, -..ith some
a.lt'-:anie f~r the probable effect of weather conditions durin the past
s.rr. :r 'nd iall. These two fiSares twgethor indicate a production 'f about
6C3 million "- .-hels. L/

31 The March reports on "Prospective Plantings" appear to provide a fairly
accurate picture of the plans of farmers a~ this time and s'hoi. the change
that r-iy be eIpected in areas -where plans are not upset by subsequent
wath'-r conditions, ch-n.-es in prices, or other c'nnitions which c'r-rnot be
foreseen.
4/ The same as indicated in "The WTheat Situation", Dccmrber 26, 1979, page
9.


WS-41







ws-41


- 7 -


There is still much uncertainty concerning prospects for winter
wheat,- and the full effects of the extremely dry fall planting season will
not be fully known for several weeks. Winter weather to date would indi-
cate some improvement in the condition of the crop since December 1,
particularly in the Pacific Northw'est and in much of the eastern soft
winter wheat -area. In this eastern area, wheat generally y looks in better
condition than when it went into the winter, although growth is short.
Subsoil moisture is still very deficient in parts of the area. The period
from September through February in Illinois was the driest in 50 years.

In much of the Great Plains r-ea, surface moisture is sufficient for
sprouting wheat and for present needs, but subs6il moisture is extremely
short over wide areas and will have to be offset by adequate and timely
rains to prevent heavy loss not only of winter wheat, but also of other
crops. Several million acres of winter wheat in central T"braska, western
Kansas and Okla homa, and eastern Colorado were seeded in dry seed-bed and
lay unj ~rmin-ted through the winter. With the late winter rains and melt-
ing snow much of this wheat has now sprouted. However, in itrts of the
area this wheat cculd not penetrate the crust on the surface. In Kansas,
some winter wheat ..'as planted in late February and early Ma.rch. The out-
come of winter wheat which germinates in February and i.-.rch is problematical,
although a number of authorities are of the opinion that with favorable
conditions such wheat can produce grain. IHowcver, yields under such con-
ditions are usually light.

Light to heavy snows furnished protection during the cold weather
of January and February in the area ro't of the Rockies, and little winter
kill has been reported as yet. Considerable ice is reported on fields in
northeast Ohio, but it is still too early to determine what damage will re-
sult. A h,~;:-, acreage loss, resulting largely from the shortage of moisture
until the first of the year, is certain in much of the Plains area. Recent
snows and freezes have left the soil in extremely loose condition and sub-
ject to blowing, particularly in the area centering in the "Dust Bowl", un-
less timel-y rains are received.

In the Pacific Northwest, aboove normal rainfall and mild temperatures
during the winter have improved conditions greatly, and winter -wheat is re-
ported in good condition over -much of that are-.,

The production indicated above makes allow n-'.ce for only average insect
dima,-e. Insect injury to the 1940 crop is expected to be somewhat above
averL'e, as was the case last year. The area of prospective :jrshopper
infestation, ranging from threatening to severe, occurs in the central and
northern Great Plains. It is, however, considerably smaller than that of
last ye-r. The control c-imp.aiLn, prevented d i-ut 72 percent of the grass-
hopper damage in prospect last year, and plans are beir.; made for more
effective control operations in 1940. The reduction in potential ra:s-
hopper ,b'.:.- and a low prospective hossian fly infestation in the 1940 crop
are offset by the thr-t'-t of a severe outlre-k of chinch 'l-u.s in a large
portion of ciht States in the main winter Wheat Belt. The ,-ctual loss due
to grasshoppers and chinch buzrs will depend largely on spring anrd early
summer weather conditions.






WS-l41


The increases prl.nned in spring wheat are mostly within acreage
allotments, and are a natural response to the heavy loss of winter wheat
acreage expected in Krnacs and adjoining States and to the increase in
price. If theso losses of -winter wheat rre about as v.'as indicated in
December, if the prom -,ective area of spring wheat is plnntod, and if the
percentage of spring v-hea~t acreage abr.ndoned apprcximntes the average during
the past 10 :years, with the extreme drought years 193h4 :nd 1936 omitted,
the total acreage of wheat harvested will be only about 46 million acres.
This total would consist of about 29.4 winter, 3.1 durum, -nd 13.5 million
acres of other spring wheat. The total rvould be n, larger acreage than rw.s
harvested in 1934 but smaller thann in any other year since the World War,
It compares ',ith 53.7 million acres harvested in 1939; 69.9 in 1938; 64.4,
in 1937; and the 10-year (1929-38) average of 56.9 million :.cres.

Reduction in crop partly offset by increr.s. in
cArry-ovor July 1940

A production of 600 million bushels would be -ibout 60 million bushels
less than prospective jonestic disappearance in 1940-41. However, the
carry-over of old "..-he-:t July 1, 1940, is expected to be about 300 million
bushels, 5/ or approx-im-.tely 50 million bushels larger than a year earlier.
Total supplies in 1940, accordingly, would be about 9C0 million bushels, which
compares with 1,009 million bushels in 1539. With the prospects that domestic
disappearance will be about 660 million bushels, the quantity for shipments
to our possessions, exportt to foreign countries, and carry-over at the close
of the 1940-41 see.on may be about 240 million buhls. Shipments to
possessions usually average about 3 million bushels. It is expected th-it
exports in 1940-41 will be small. Under the provisions of the Agricultural
Adjustment Act of 1938 the carry-over goal is 30 percent of a normal year's
consumption and exports, or approximately 225 million bushels.

The estimated cu'-ly and distribution, total and by classes, for
1939-40 is shown in table 1, section A, projected figures for 1940-41 in
Section B, and carry-over stocks for comparison in Section 0. From this
table it appears that the carry-over in prospect July 1, 1940 will be large
enough so that ev,-n ,with a relatively small crop supplies by classes will
be ample for domestic requirements.

The acreage reduction of winter wheat in the United States in 1939
and 1940 from the previous high lc-vols was uLde at a ti.io when export
prospects ".vre very unfavorable. The largest world wheat supplies in history,
in 1938 and 1939, have :.r1de it necessary for our Government to assist exports
in order to maintain. our share in the export market. Moreover, the pros-
pective record world carry-ovor in July 1940 is expected to be over
one-fifth. larger than in July 1939 and over twice as lar. ea as in 1938.



5/ "The Wheat Situation", Docember 26, 1939, page 9; also February 26, 1940,
prgo 15.


- g -






s-4l ,- 9 -

Table l.-Wholt supply and distribution, by classes, in continental
United States, estimated for 1939-40 and projected for 1940-41


i Hard : Soft t Hard : :
It en : red : red : rtd : Durnin : White : Total
:wir.ter winterr :srUri, : a I
:Million Million Million Million Million Million
:bushels bushels bush3ls bushels bushols bushels
A. Year beginning
July l,

Carry-over July 1, 1939
(old wheat) ............. 114 30 73 18 19 254
Production in 1939 ......... 307 203 130 35 SO 755
Total supply .......... 421 23]_ 203 5__5__ 92_ ,009
Export. and ship.e: ts ...... 21 2 5 --- 12 40
Domestic dispppeorince .....: 236 203 128 32 71 670


B. Year bev:.r-lnf
July 1, 21.40


Carry-over July 1, 1940 I
(old wheat) ............. I
Production in 1940 .........
Total supply .......... t
Domestic dis3.pp3Lar-ice ..... :
Avail-ible for shio-ints, I
exports, nrad cr-ry-over i
July 1, 1941 ............ :
Shipments .................. :
Available for exports and a
carry-over July 1, 1941 .

C. July stocks, comp'risns :

Average, 192--33 l/ ....... :
Average, 1934-38 1/ ........ :
Smallest in recent years
(1937) ...................
Largest (1933) I1/ .........*:


164 28
193 168
9 -1 lq


70
124
194


16

101


299
6oo00


233 180 130 32 80 660


119 16 64 19 21 239
1 2 3


118


236


161
69

37
201


317
16o

83
378


1/ Contain some new wheat prior to
on the average.


1937, perhaps 15-20 million bushels


Prospects are for a smaller world wheat crop in 1940 6/

The 1)40 world whe-t crop has been handicapped by a poor start, and
will require favorable conditions for the remainder of the growing season
to make average yields per acre. With no increase in acreage probable, it
seems reasonable, accordi-.gly, to expect that the 1940 crop vrill be smaller

6/All references to world acreage, production, and stocks in this report
exclude Soviet RPssin. and China except where noted.


I- ,1 -1 ___ ____ <1 __I






- 10 -


than that of 1939, when yields were above average (15.5 bushels compared
with the 1923-38 average of 14.2 bushels). This would result in a reduction
in the large world carry-over by July 1941.

In Europe the winter has been unusually severe and loss from winter-
kill is expected to be much larger than usual, Losses are reported to be
especially heavy in Belgium, in the D.nubian countries, and in parts of
Soviet Russia. It is expected, however, that there .rill be an effort to
increase spring seedi'gs to partly offset the heavy abandonment. Weather
in western Europe is now mild and spring field work is progressing well in
most parts although it is generally later than usual. In northern Italy
excessive moisture unkes conditions unfavorable for spring feeding, anrd in
parts of Spain prospects for spring sooding are unfavorable because of severe
floods. In the Danube Basin countries crop conditions are mostly below
normal, but the fall extent of the losses is not yet known. In January
Hu.ngar experienced t'e coldest weather of the past decade, --d it is believed
that serious damage to the crop has occurred. In the southern part of the
Soviet U-Iion, it is estimated that winter-kill is above rnonral. The condition
of the crop in Northern Africa is reported to be satisfactory.

In the spring -.-,heat area of Canada there is a deficiency of subsoil
moisture. In Saskatchewan ar.d Manitoba the September-October rainfall, which
is an important factor influencing production, ;was 56 rnd 62 percent of
normal, respectively. For the entire period, September 1 to February 29,
Saskatchowan was 86 percent of normal while Manitoba was only 59 percent
of normal. In Alberta, ho-.-ever, precipitation was considerably above normal.
It should be noted, however, th'tt there is a considerable area in sunnier
fallow, which would partly offset the adverse moisture condition.

Table 2.-Prc*ipitation September-October, and Septe:-.ber-February
averagee rainfall per station)

1 Har- :Sg.-Oct. prcinit .tionu:Set.-Fb. precipitation
Province -vested : :Percent-s :Percent-
:acreage:Iormnl : 1939 :age of .:Normal :1939-40:rae of
: 9 : ___ : :normal : : :normal
:Million
: acres I:ic}hes Inches Percent Inches Inches Percent

Sasketchewan ..: 14.2 2.22 1.24 56 4.37 3.75 86
Alberta ....... g.4 2.31 2.87 124 4.76 5.78 122
Manito'ha ...... : 3.2 2.89 1. 62 6.24 3.66 59

In A '.jtralia dryness continues over large areas, '-.-d is delayi'-g
plourhing. Because of large supplies and the poor export outlook, it is
expected that the Goverinment will exercise some control over acreage.

At this time of year estimated wheat soodings are usually available
for nur.crE:.s European countries and for the countries of I-orthern Africa.
This yoar, because of tho unsettled conditions in Europe, estimates for only
a few countries have been received. The area so's. in the eight countries for
which reports have been received is shown in table 3. Those data represent
sowings of winter wheat for countries, other than the United States. The






- 11 -


data for the United States include both .-inutpr and spring sowings through
1939. Thp 1940 figure is made up of the reported so::ini[s of winter wheat,
plus intentions to plqnt spring wh-at ni.d is less than 90 percent of the
acreage sown in these countries for harvest in 1937 a-i 1938. The total of
the eight countries shown is slightly less than that of last year. The slight
net decrease compared with last year is caused by the decreases reported for
Rumania and Yugoslavia. Sowings in Rumania are about 18 percent below those
of last year. Private reports state that a rtre.uous effort will be made to
increase spring seodi'ngs. Normally spring wheat in Rumania is sov.n on loss
than 10 percent of the total area so'wn to wheat.

Other countries included in the table shoe' a slight increase, com-
pared with acreage sown for harvest last year, the largest increase being in
India where the March estimate is 2 percent above that of the similar estimate
for last year. In Belgium, for which no actual estimate is available, it is
believed that the acreage will be less than the smnll acreage harvested in
1939. In Italy, trade officials estimate that the acreage sown is about the
same as in 1938, when winter wheat sown was reported at 12,150,000 acres.
Unfavorable winter weather in France may make it necessary to resow a con-
siderable p--t of. the acrea-ge. Thure still remaiL.s a large acreage which has
not been so:\n, and every effort will be made to complete spring seedings during
March. There is consideu-r.b'e vqirietion in estimates, but it seems probable
that the acreage seeded is consi-derably below norm-l and part of that area
will be abandoned.

Prospects for the 1940 wheat arops in China, Japan, and Manchuria
point to some probable increase over the 1939 crop. Favorable weather con-
ditions in central China are expected to result in an increase for that
country. The Jap.-.ne-e Gov3e'nrc.nt aims at a production of about 66 million
bushels, compared "-ith 61 million bushels produced i:i 1939. 7"cather condi-
tions and labor and fertilizer short\geJ, however, i idicato that this goal
will not be fully achieved. This Government's aim for the 1940 production in
Manchuria is to increase the crop by 30 to 40 percent.

Table 3.-Winter wheat area sown in specified countries
for harvest, 1937-40

Country 1937 1938 1939 : 1940
:1,000 acres r000 acres 1 000 acr--s 0]000 acres
United States V/ ........ 81,072 79,565 63,896 2- 64,439
Canada ..................: 781 815 774 813
G-eece .................. : 2,117 2,062 2,320 2,557
Lithuania ...............: 379 357 365 346
Ru ia .. ............ .. 7,9G4 8,797 9,556 7,798
Yugoslavia ..............: 5,335 5,236 3/ 5,565 3/ 4,940
Egypt ...................: 1,421 1,470 1,501 1,503
Japan ...................: 1,776 1,777 1,827 2,001
India / ..... 325254 3240- .,492 33189
..Total .... ..,,.- 13 370 132,h2 117.10
SAll wheat sown. 2/ Wilt er wheat sown plus intentions to pl-.-t
I Unofficial estimates, spring wheat.
4 arch estimate.






WS-41


- 12 -


Domestic wheat prices in 19_39-40 li''l
to continue above exno-t levels

'.Theat prices in the United States are expected to continue to aver-
age relatively high cer.ipared with prices in other surrlus-producing coun-
tries, as long as the Government loan and extr'it subsidy programs continue
and domestic production is not large. If production in rther countries of
the world turns out to be less than disappearance in 1940-41, and supplies
are thereby reduced, some improvement in world.wheat prices would be ex-
pected to foll-;. Any improvement in the world commodity price level would
also make for higher wheat prices in foreign markets. Advances in world
wheat prices could tend to reduce the margin that domestic prices are above
export parity.

THE '"CRLD 'lHEAT SITUATION IN 1939-40

BACKGR1'CU1D.- Total world supplies of wheat increased sharply
from 1924 to 1933, largely as a result crf increased acreage.
From 1934 to 1936, world supplies declined, following successive
years of small yields and increased world demand. Supplies in-
creased slightly in 1937. With the return of more normal yields
on the large acreage, supplies in 193o and 1939 were again large
-- the largest on record (page 2).

Total world shipments of wheat averaged 751 million bush-
els for the period 1923-27, reached a peak of 913 million bush-
els in the year beginning July 1928, and then declined sharply,
largely as a result of the measures take-r by i.-ocrting countries
to reduce the use of foreign wheat. ..'7 rld shipments were 598
million bushels for the yea-r beiinni:i July 1, 193'?, and they
are expected to be s-.,.e-';hat less during the current season.

:.'orld wheat prices declined in the period 1924-33 with
the increase in world supplies. The sharp decline in prices af-
ter 1929 was caused largely by the general decline in industrial
activity and commodity prics. From the sprin- of 1933 to the
sur-.--- of 1937, world wheat prices moved upward, reflecting
world-wide recovery in commodity price levels, cu-.rency depreci-
ation, and r--educed production. The world price for the 1937
crop remained practically unchang' d fro that of a year earlier.
In 197., '.orld prices again declined sharply as a result of the
record world production (paLe 2) and'! the weakness of demand. In
floveui.er and Deccm-er 1939, prices ad'ancbd, influenced by the
Eurcp.an '.'ar and by poor crop prospects in Ar.,ntina' and the
United States.

V'!orld wheat carry-oyer7/ July 1940 expected to be record

Th. esti-iAt,-d world wheat supply and prospective distribution f'r
th- year beginning July 1, 1939, ccr.pared with that of 1938, are shown in

7/ All references to wvr.rld production and stocks in this report exclude
Soviet !ussia and China except where noted.






- 13 -


table 4. This table includes a ver- slight revision in the 1939 production
figure. DisappearancI, on the other h.r-d, has 1lecrI increased by 100 mil-
lion bushels. This increase is suy-ested by a re'ter reduction in stocks
in surplus-producing countries than was earlier expected. As previously
pointed out, however, the prospective disappearance and carry-over fi-ures
are only indications. This is especially true this year when sources of
information are r:-atly li:-.ite I by war conditions.

Torld heat production in 1939 is new estimated at 4,270 million
bushels. Cha -'es in estimates for small producing countries such as Mexico,
Uru -uay, and Ireland result in a net increase of about 3 million bushels
compared with the February estimated total.. This esti-:ate does not take
into consideration any chi-rge in the estimate for Australia, which private
estimators nm:. place as high as 250 million bushels. This, if realized,
will be an all-time record. Estimates are based on threshing returns, which
are greatly uxcee0~~ir expectations.

Table 4.- Estimated world supply and distribution, year
.e.~irning July 1, 1938-39

: Year beginning July 1 : Increase
Item : 193 1939 : or
_: stimats : n dic atiors : decrease
: Million Million Million
: bushels bushels bushels

Carry-over July 1 1 2/........: 59 1,189 590
Production 1/ ..................: 4,6054,270 -335
Total supply .............: 5,204 5,459 255
Net export s from So.viet Russia .. : 37 3/ 1 38
Total of above ...........: 5,241 5,458 217
Disappearance ................... : 14052 4100 48
Carry-over J-ne 30 ..............: .1,19 1,358 169

SE:-cludi:-j stocks and production in s&-let Russia and China.
2 Differs from fi.-res in table 12 in The "Theat Situation for Feb. 26,
1940 by excluding some new cr wheat for the United States, figures for
vhi-h were available only begin in. in 1937.
M/ Net imports.

Imports by d~-ficit countries in 1939-40 m^ be about
15 2.M1'o:i bur.-els less than in 193i-39

Fc.rcasts of net iapo'ts by deficit countries for the 1939-40 season
are made :7it'i c, :i.fera.le recerva.tion. Early in the season it seemed rea-
sonable to assume a total for the season of about 535 million bushels com-
pared with 573 million bushels for the year beginning July 1, 1938. On the
basis of world trade to date, the forecast is now tentatively placed at -560
million bushels, -hie- is 13 r.illion bushels less than in 1938-39. The
fact that trade figures for certain countries are either entirely unavail-
able or ve-ry late in being received, together with the general uncertainty
as to a.,reemsnts and shipping, ma.:es forecastin- of trade this ,-ear unusual-
ly difficult.

The wheat supply for ex:.ort or carry-over for Canada as of March 1,
1940 is estimated at 352 million bushels compared with 160 million bushels


WS-41






WS-41 i -

1 year earlier, 53 rilli ,' buchels .arch 1, 1938, ernd 97 million bushels
March 1, 1937. Th sur-,_ f"rr ex.-oit c.r carry-ov-r in Argentina for March 1
is estimated at 65 million b.iushels cc:-:.are' v.ith 225 illio.. bushels 1 year
earlier, 62 million bushels '.arch 1, 1933, and 85 million bushels March 1,
1937. Figures for Australia, United Kir.gdo..L port stocks, and stocks afloat
for 1940 are not available.

The current international wheat movement with cem-parisons is shown in
tables 13 to 16.

Winnipeg prices lower than a month ago;
Buenos Ai-.c s about unchanged

'heat prices in "':innipg have fluctuated less thln prices in the Unit-
ed States durin- t-e past morth, although in-fluenc3d by factors similar to
those 4n our Qcr:.cstic C.ar!:ets. V'Weanss in exch:anrc rates exaggerated the
decline at '."WinLnipe. s-ince about ,.'arch 11, but prices are somewhat lower than
a :.on.th a.o ',.en in Canradlan fuins. For t"he week ended March 16 the Mlay fu-
tur.es at '.7irnipez averaged 72. cents in United States currency (89.3 cents
in Canadi-rp currency) no..-Lre(. with 74.8 cents (86.6 cents Canadian) and 77.2
cents for TI, weeks'.1 ended Febriary 17 e-.d 24, resc-ctiv.ly (table 5). Uo. 3
Manitob c-r:'-thern. Spring :--hent at 'inripe,. for the -: '.-nded L..arch 16 aver-
aged 67.6 ce-nts in 'JUnited States curr.rcy coriparcd with 6.K.7 and 71.2 cents
for the wee's ende,.d Fe!.iruary 17 and 24, rcspec.tively.

At PBuncs Aires, uhe 1'*.1. future for the past month has been about un-
changed at about 61K- cents.

Table 5.- Aver.-e closing ;.rice of ..'ay .;eat futures, specified markets
and datcs, .19.-3 and 193,-40
;.,trii,:.T-- -.,:l I/: Buer.os A.ii's: Chica .o :':.rnsas City:LMinneapolis
Period : 193-:193Y9-:_.,3-:.1939: 13-: 139-: 19.?-: -1-, 11' -:1939-: 193-: 1939-
S3 : 3 : 0 : 39 : 40 : 39 : 39 : 40 : 39 : 40
Cents _-i- '.,c-..ss t '-w.ts C -i.:t. Cents -.r. s Cents Cents Cents Cents
Month
Dec. : 1. 75.6 5.0 -- --- -- 67.2 q.3 63.2 L.0 70.0 97.6
Jan. : 62.2 "2 .2 2/r3. --- --- --- 9.5 103.9 6 6.0 c'.5 72.5 99.2
Feb. : (2.3 54 62.2 -- --- --- t. 101.0 4.6 95.2 71.0 98.7
We ek
ended-
Feb. 3 62,b 7.9 63.2 --- /59.1 1.0 o.0 -.? 65.2 91.4 71.8 95.6
1 : rl.- .L. 2.4 --- r.'-; 3 7.8 6.0 97.9 64.1 93.L 70.6 97.7
17 : 62.C- "f. 62.5 --- 3' '.5 '-.0 6 .0 101.1 64.3 95.1 70.5 98.5
2, : 42..' '..2 -22 -- .5 3:.5 .8 101.5 65.0 98.7 71.3 101.5
9-2.2 ': 3: .-5 6 5 -
Mar. 2 : '.C r .7 '1.6 --- 2 9.5 61.2 43.7 9.1 6'.7 95.9 71.0 99.1
:r1.J. L r-. .0 --- ,,'-... 6_1.5 6 .2 103.2 6. Q.2 97.2 70.3 99.8
16 : 5. '2., 52.1 --- 59.f 61.6 67.1 102.1 63.8 96./ 69.4 98.2

High : 2.c' "-. 6.1 -- '5 .1 /j'".7 70.2 1C?.2 65.9 99.7 73.3 103.1
Lew ". : .0 2. 39.6 --5- '.. 5, 5t. 6(7.? '.8 63.8 91.4 65.7. 95.6

2 Conve;r*_':nj at noon ,-i:.- rate of :r.c. a .e.
Duty-free wheat.
/arch futures.
January 6 to 1'_rch 16, 140, and corresponding dates for 1539.
5/ March and 1.ay futures.








THI DO;',FSTIC "'.AT SITUATION

PACKGROUI0U.- Domestic wheat prices from the spring of 1933 to the
spring of 1937 were unusually high in relation to world prices, as
the result of small crocs in the United States. During this same
period, prices in other countries also :ioved upward, reflecting a
world-wide recovery in cormodity price levels, currency deprecia-
tion, and reduced production. The average prices received by
United States producers for the 1931 and 1932 crops were 39 and
38 cents, respectively, compared with average prices for the 4
crops, 1933 to 1936 of 74, 85, 83, and 103 cents per bushel,
respectively.

In 1937 United States production was large and prices to
growers declined to an average of 96 cents. In 1938, with domes-
tic production again large, with a record world crop and with low-
er coimrodity prices, prices received by producers declined to an
average of 56 cents and would have averaged still lower had it
not been for the loan and export-subsidy programs which held do-
mestic prices above export parity.

Prices received by growers for wheat during the year begin-
ning July 1939 are expected to average 70 cents or more. This al-
so is relatively high compared with the usual relationship to
prices in other countries, as a result of the operation of the
agricultural programs, the largo quantities being held by farmers,
and poor prospects for the 1940 crop.

Exports of wheat including flour from the United States
in 1939-40 may total about 40 million bushels

Vhbcat supply and distribution, total and by classes, for 1939-40 are
shown in table 1. It nc-.r appears that exports of United States wheat, in-
cludi-n- flour in 1939-40, may not exceed 40-45 million bushels. Exports of
what and flour made wholly of United States wheat for the period July
through January were 30 million bushels. On the basis of weekly figures from
the De-art:-ent of Commerce, exports for the February-March 16 period are es-
timated at about 6 million bushels, making a total of about 36 million bush-
els for the season through March 16.

Domestic wheat prices on2l slightlr lower than
high levels for the season

Domestic wheat prices the middle of March were only slightly lower
than the high levels of the season reached in early January and the latter
part of February. No. 2 Hard Winter vwheat at Kansas City for the week ended
March 16 averaged 99.8 cents compared with 103.6 cents for the w:eek' ended
January 6 and 103.3 cents for that ended February 24. No. 1 Dark Northern
Spring wheat at Minneapolis for the week ended March 16 averaged 103.1 cents
compared with 109.5 and 106.5 cents for the weeks ended January 6 and Febru-
ary 24, respectively.


- 15 -


WS-41






WS-41 16 -

Prices fluctuated withini n r narr -J range most of the time since late
February, rcflectinh' changes in spec;ul:.tive sentiment bh.rsed on reports of
crop conditions in domestic vh.-at areas, reports of damage in the Soviet
Union and other sections of Europe, the v:.ar situation, anc. the marketing of
loan wheatt. Market weakness, which dovelopjd on 1.arch 12 and 13 and which
reflected the' Russian-Pinnish nerotia-cicnr, widespread peace talk in Eurepe,
and general sno'.:s .mnd rains ,v-r domestic -ihcat areas, wcre offset on March
20 L-y news of the recent air raids and efforts to fonr. a more aggressive war
pcvcw.rrLnm'nt in France, and pessimistic reports on winter wheat condition.

"Theat prices in the United States continue hijh in comparison with
prices in oth-ir countries, as the result of the Government promrajmis and poor
cro c rosepcts. Prices of hard winter wheat at the Gulf arc about 23 cents
at.ovepa-ity anJ. prices -f white wheat at. Pacific ports about 27 cents above
export parit.,- compared with about 25 cents a..ovu export parity for both lo-
caticns a :.cnit'i a3f.

Changes in domestic wheat prices in the next few months are expected
,o den:rnd largely upon weather ccndit4 ns in both domestic and foreign coun-
tries, aevc-:1 '.mnts in the f-reign political situation, and upon the volume
of overseas salc:s of F'orth Americar wheat.

Tabl .- Vi .ted. av-rare cash price of heatea, specified marl-ets and
dates, 1932-39 and 1939-LC

: All classes : No. 2 : M. 1 : No. 2 Hard : N.. 2 : Western
Month and grad:s : Hard VWinter: Dk.H.Sprin:.: Amber Durum: Red Winter : White
n six markets : Kansas Cit'.: I.inne.aoolis: Mjinieaoclis: St. Louis :Seattle /
or date: 1938-: 1939-:1938-: 1939-:19359-: 193-3: 193: 99 19-:138-:1939-
:.39 : 40 3 40 3 : 40 : 39 4: 0 : 39 : 40
: Cents Cents Cnt C s C'-nts Cets Cen 7 C nts Cent s 'Cnte Cents Cents Centf
Month :
Dec. : 68.3 99.8 66.9 98.3 77.3 103.0 70.1 102.2 -:.8 1C3.9 64.9 83.7
Jan.. : 72.6 101.8 70.9 101.2 7.7 10Z...l '.7 100.2 73.4 105.3 67.6 85.1
Feb. : 70.6 101.0 69.2 99.4 7,.0 1T0.3 72.3 -9.7 73.1 105.E. 67.5 84.9
Week
ended- :
Feb. 3 : 71.5 97.3 70.3 95.4 7Q.r 1:0.4 72.9 95.8 74.1 100.9 66.5 83.2
10 69.6 99.1 68.5 97.6 77.7 102.2 70.8 100.7 73.3 103.2 66.8 85.9
17 : 70.0 99.6 68.3 98.2 76.4 1,~3.2 73.4 99.1 72.2 -- 63.1 85.2
24 : 71.1 103.3 70.6 103.3 73.1 106.5 73.1.. 101.1 73.4 108.0 68.4 85.8
Mar. 2 : 71.1 101.1 68.6 99.0 70.3 104.3 74.1 9.'4 73.4 105.1 67.9 83.4
9 : 71.5 101.2 6.0 100.5 77.3 134.3 73.6 '^.l 73.4 105.0 67.5 83.5
16 : 70.5 10O.7 63.8 99.8 76.0 103.1 7T.5 95.7 -2.9 106.6 66.4 ---

High 2/ : 73.3 105.6 71.7 103.6 80.4 109.5 74.3 1L.2 72. 3 10E.9 68.5 86.9
Low 2 : 69.6 97.3 68.3 95.4 76.0 100.'. 70.P 15.7 71.9 100.9 66.4 83.2

1 'ee-'kly average of daily cash ouotations, basics :c.. 1 sac':ed.
o January 6-March 16, 1940, and crrespori'-,in" dates frr 1939.






- 17 -


Table 7.- Targins between dem--:ti: v;r-at prices arnd prices at '.:inripg,
1'SF and 1940


SL..m t i c 1 :arke' .bo- o. 5 c rther,' .ring
: "':.e*!.eat ^. 'inrip, .-I
: I'c.. 1 Dark : 2 i.ar .rt.-.r -: I':'. d
:-crth.ern S- in- : : nt r
: Vinrer t1i., anas City : Chic .. i
.. ... .. . .


: Ccents


,Cnt s


C .-rt s


Month )f ,'an.
i 9-1



Yonth :,f F-b.

193.
Differp.i c

Di -. c
S".2or.i v::',,.-: in.




Di ffe r ''ce


Let *;." *2.. 1




**' '7 6 n c ,
: ..1 1 ... ., L

:-.3' 1i .1. 27.r 2-
'. *J 3\ "g '.. ....




: L,, 1 2I.7 ,.r 13.8-

: -i.hc' 1 0.5 l.d .2


Table- .- A-:e-ra- rrice per bur-hel c wheat r, 'i'.'-dt by frlrc,'-s,
Unit-1 States, 19.0-,0

Y a.r :: : : : : : : : : : : : C'rs.r,
begin-: ..lil.': Ak g. :3?e t C 't. "'v. : f:e.: .'a,.: F .: 'r.*:. .r.: ", ; .Q, : .rnc: --ar
nring 15 : if : '5 :1 : : 1. : 15 : 1 : 15 : Cv -
July : : : : : : : : : : a
:Cnt. Ce:-.ts ',-t.-. ': r *'nt 3 'e t-.3 -,'s ts 5 .Ts rLn s 'h tstI

193( : 70,.6 74.0 70,.. .* ." ,1 .. -1 .1 F .? ,.7 09.2 59. .1.3 67.1
1951 : 3F.. 3, ..*" .7 '" .1 :, .t., 1 ..1 '.r 1.. 1,3.1 ":.-! 7.7.3 39.0
1932 : ;" '- S' 3 2 or -.o
,^,v ,_ ..l .._ .,: F._ .1 .; :f. .f. .r .. L-_.. ._i. @ r ..:
1 3. : .. 7-. 71.1 .': ..1 :,7. .5 '.. tC., .79. .'. 71 .1
1934 : 7C? .q3 0.2 %, 1 C.4" ;5 3 .. c. C ., 87. 7.. ." .
1935 : 76.! 30.? Ft.' 9..1 K .0 8 '-1.1 ?1.8 b %.- 51.6 7:.w ?3.1


193 : 60.C 5A .5' .f.3. r." 5-.0 53.3 57.1 5.r.* L".7 57..8 C. .0 C2., 1,iO.l
1939 : 5..7 .2. 7 ..7 70.. 7.1.1 82.4 7. .4- 1 67.8


1/ F'r'.linir.-r, Tnclud- unredemTrr1. loan on h ot :..t i.? ed ':.vc a 1, .,. valu 1 .

Cc..piled fr rr- .rts cf the Agricultural 1,arket"ir- r L .: .n r--turns f'ro
scTr-tii r-.,ri r- -.. rtterr Xnthly rrieps by ?tat s i i t b-- '.r. : ect i -' t b-
t.in a .ri"e fi:r th' Ilr.itod Statost ; -verage f *r I-.:-cr .-jr :ta:".d t ... i it I -
?':t+., rir:f c .ra-cs for tho crorp-mairk t in;- s .3:,.. ] r.-. j n T.,-r .1,"t .ite'a-
t .:., Gct...b r '., 1939, pcg 17.


Peri )d


'I-S-41






WS-41


- 18 -


Table 9.- United States acreage seeded, yield r.er acrq, and
production of all 1'..at, 1919 t, date

Year : Seeded acreare : Yiel .r : r oduc.tion
:_ : smedjd acre :
1 l,00r acres BRish. 1s 1, rC'O -ushels


1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940


77,440
67,977
67,6,'1
67,103
64,510
55,706-
61, 738
60,712
65,6C1
71,152
66,840
67,150
65,9. 8
65,9!3
68,415
63,562
69,207
73,724
81,072
79,.t"5
63,896
64-, 4-V


12.3
12.4
12.1
12.6
11.8
15.1
10. R
13.7
13.3
12.0
12.3
13.2
14.2
11.5




11 .7
11 .1


952,097
843,277
818,964
846,649
759,4 2
841, 617
668, 700
832,213
875,059
914,373
823,217
886,470
941,674
756,927
551,683
'2Q,393
E 26, 344
62?, 766
875,676
9.?:, 702
954,971


~L*i~C' *~


Table 10.- S.-.-._ acr.,-o .f Gri\, -he.-t by ar.:;s, average 199-,
: r 'i i.' -,0


: Averap e:
: 1929-38:


Are a


: 1,000
: acres


1936
196 .


1] : 7


1 : ,
1;"^8 :


1939


1,000 1, C .. ., 1 cr.
acres acr. s cr s arCs


: 1 40
:prospec-
: tive
: seedings
1,000
acres


Spring wheat other than duru.m:
.r..t.,. _.D., d, : 15,412 16,621 15,'1 1_ ,0 1', 24 13,258
WaSh.,0reg., and Idaho .....: 1,957 2,170 2,7:' 1,.4 1,207 1,609
Colo., Nebr., and Wyo. .....: 908 1,251 ],..- 1' 567 723
All other States ...........: 395 362 .: ,*.7 296
Total ................. ~ 1.,674 2 ,401- 20, 1" ,T, ; 1,.511'. ,886
Durum v:hc.t 1/ ............... 3,671 3,.f, 3$, ,c.7 .,0 39
To' .1 all spring ......: 22,345 23,959 23,-$41 :,.16 17,5,2 15,425
1/ ..:. f :r -iuri m reresent 3 States cnly ir r, oto-, t orti 1. :ct., ,rjn..
Sov+th DIakot.. Durum production in other States is uni:m.ortant and f'ig-ur'? are
included with "other spring" wheat.






TS-41


- 19 -


Table 11.- Seeded acreage, yield per acres, and production, durizu, other
spring and all spring wheat, 1226-40

Durum i/ : Other spring : All spring
Year: : :-r'ruc-:. : : Ereduo-:. : : Produc-
Acreage Yield Acreage Yield : .icreao'e Yield :
S: tion : : t: ion : : tion
: 1,OOC 1,C00 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
: acres Bushels bushels acres Bushels bushels acres Bushels bushels

1926 : 4,568 8.7 42,349 15,240 10.4 153,257 20,108 10.0 200,606
1927 : 5,463 14.3 78,059 16,064 15.5 2438,812 21,527 15.2 326,871
1928 : 6,855 13.9 95,266 15,9C 15.1 240,041 22,721 14. 335,307
1929 : 5, 7. 9.5 54,470 17,135 10.7 182,508 22,873 10.4 236,978
1930 : 4,745 12.0 57,166 17,373 11.3 195,699 22','118 11.4 252,865
1931 : 3,959 5.5 21,069 16,392 5.8 95,20G9 20,351 5.7 116,278
19 2 : 4,184 9.7 40,463 18,358 12.2 224,669 22,542 11.8 265,132
1933 : 3,070 5.4 16,463 20,970 7.6 158,702 24,040 7.3 175,165
1934 : 1,928 3.3 6,353 17,049 4.8 82,077 18,977 4.7 88,430
19.5 : 2,427 9.7 23,465 19,716 7.0 137, 60 22,143 7.3 161,025
196 : 3,555 2.3 8,073 20,404 4.8 98,819 23,959 4.5 106,892
1937 : 3,214 8.7 27,971 20,202 8,0 161,881 23,416 6.1 189,852
1938 : 3,887 10.5 40,697 1s,1 9 10.6 202,872 23,026 10.6 243,569
1939 : 3,220 10.7 34,360 14,612 11.0 157,180 17,532 10.0 191,540
1940 : 3,539 19,425
-- F '-lr'. s .n ihru.-, ar l> tc .' t 3tr.et only "'i!-;Y-.T.:,t., I :,1 h, i'a>2-- ;:..J S.uuth
Dakota. Durum production in other States is not important and figures are in-
cluded with "cther sprirg".

Table 12.- .-Etimated world acre ..,, yield ard production, (excluding
Soviet Russia and China) 1923-39

Year of Acrea.-.- 2/ : Yield per acre : reduction
harvest I/ l -
million acr.cs Bushels Tillion bushels

1923 : 236 15.0 3,535
1924 : 229 13.7 3,143
1925 241 14.1 3,396
1926 : 2415 14.3 3,504
1"27 250 14..7 3,683
1928 266 15.1 4,005
192? : 259 13.8 3,582
1930 268 K .5 3,894
1931 266 1,.6 3,877
1932 272 1 .3 3,876
1933 274 14.0 3,848
19 : 267 1 .3 3,561
1935 2 69 13.4 3,602
1936 : 279 12.8 3,584
1937 289 13.3 3,652
17' : 293 15.7 4,605
3159 3/ 275 15.5 4,270
---/ ZT'7F- : .. year of harvest in .ijrthT rn HirT .-- t r. -, lt.-. igh c t i in..:~ c .-. ,.:J
for the Southern Hemisphere where the harvest ends early the following year.
2/ Acreage haryvstel. except the United States, Canada and Argentina.
3/ Preliminary.






- 20 -


Table 14.- Mcvement of wheat, including flour, from principal exporting
ccuatries, 1936-37 to 1939-:40


: -tZrrorts as given by cffici'l sources
: _____cal July 1 to date shown :
:130-37 :L937-3 :1938-3:1937-1 :l3b:93-39 :1939-5O :
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
:bushels bushels bushels bushels busnels bushels


Date


United States / .....
Canada ...............
Argentina ............
Australia ............
Soviet Union .........
Hungary ..............
Yugoslavia ...........
Rumania ..............
Bulgaria ............
British India ........
Total ...........


21,584 107,194
: 213,02S 94,5h46
: 162,977 69,670
97,712 123,453
: 4,47 43354
27,4o-8 9 3o8
17, 95 5,012
3o,25m '22,2:0
: 7,27' 8 4,
: 16,571 19,677
b05,2Eb 512,973


115,784
159, 8335
116,116
96,635

27,650
5,34.6
L3, 940

10.097
578,13a


55,388
73,921
31,560
21,943

5.635

22,14
0,5062
10,5060


57,532
115,209
37,514
29,044

1h,c4o
4,077
21,872
179
8,207


35,817
l9, 363
104,071
19,717

27,226
6,630
19,701
3,9S9
2/1,703


Jan.
Feb.
Jan.
Oct.

Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Nov.


31
29
31
31

31
31
31
31
30


: Shipments as given by trade sources
: T:,tal : Week ended 1940 : July 1: March 16
:1937-33 :193'-39 :Mar. 2 :Mar. 9 :Mar.16 :1938-39 : 1939-0
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
:bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels


North America 3/ .....: 134,720 245.296 4,263 7,371 5,245 176,336 142,910
Canada 4/ ............: 94, 5L6 19,83, 4,000 5,6D00 3,400 119,O400 161,557
United States 5/ ......: 83,59 94,157 321 1,320 1,995 65,667 33,001
Argentina ............: 6o,?2S 114,272 23 2,05 1,532 50,804 127,671
Australia ............ : 127,50 102l6 -- -- --- 6/ 18,696 6/11,028
Soviet Union .........: 42,2-8 3', 0 0 0 39,320 2,342
Danube and Bulgaria 7/: 37,2-i 5?,34& 152 1,240 824 35,632 29,936
British India ....... .:8/1?,677 ?-'10,A7 0 0 0 6,208 0
Total, above 9/ .: _7.__ _-7.- 326,996 313,88L
Total Eurecean
shipments 3/ ...: 337,5,2 :45,7' ~4
Tctal ex-European:
shipments 3/ ...: 99,400 146,750


1/ Includes flour milled in b -nd from foreign wheat.
2/ Excludes land trade for September-November 1939.
7/ From Brocirhall1s Corn Trade I7ws.
Official exports as reported to date, supplemented by weekly estimates deriv
by subtracting the United States exports from Broomhall's estimate for North Am'
ca.
Official reports received from.16 principal ports cnly.
/ Through Sea-tember 2 Fnly.
/ Black Sea shipments nnly.
8 Official.
9/ Total of trade figures includes North America as reported by Brnomhall's but
does not include items 2 and. 3.


ed
eri-


Country


__







- 21 -


Table 15.- Exports of wheat and wheat flour from the United States,
1938-39 and 1939-40


(Includes flour milled in bond from foreign


: Wheat : Wheat flour
: 1938-39 1939-40 : 1938-39 : 1939-40
1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
: bushels bushels barrels barrels


wheat)
*


Wheat


including flour
1938-39 : 1939-40
1,000 1,000
bushels bushels


July-January :
Week ended 1/ -:
Feb. 3 ....
10 ....:
17 ..... :
24 .....
Mar. 2 .....:
9 .....;
16 ..... :


46,794


2,138
3,103
1,419
2,093
1,709
2,612
2,087


15,809


70o4
395
230
187
109
1,341
2/ 1,378


3,224


121
39
146
174
70
75


4,257


54
72
73
53
45
102
2/ 110


61,946

2,345
3,672
1,602
2,779
2,527
2,941
2, 439


35,817

958
733
573
436
321
1,820
2/ 1,895


Compiled from reports of the Department of Commerce.
1/ Data for total exports from the United States by weeks are not available.
These data represent exports through 16 of the principal ports.
2/ Preliminary.

Table 16.- Shipments of wheat, including flour, from principal
exporting countries, specified dates, 1938-39 and 1939-40


Period : Argentina Australia Danube :Torth America
: 1938-39:1939-40: 1938-39:1939-40: 1938-39:1939-40 : 1938-39:1939-40
1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
:bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels

July-January: 38,480 105,416 51,780Tll,028 30,264 24,848 146,520 113,856
Week ended -:
Feb. 10 ..: 2,272 1,936 3,608 2/ 1,5s4 936 4,688 4,232
17 .. 3,288 2,000 2,912 2/ 928 976 3,912 4,424
24 ..: 1,188 3,712 2,380 2/ 568 768 5,440 4,312
Mar. 2 ..: 1,544 2,689 3,572 2/ 736 152 6,792 4,269
9 ..: 2,092 2,085 1,748 2/ 472 1,240o 4,416 7,371
16 ,.: 1,940 1,532 2,352 2/ 1,080 824 4,568 5,245

Compiled from Broomhall's Corn Trade News.
1/ Through September 2 only.
2/ Hot available.


w-s-4


Period.



:
:







22 -


Table 17.- Net imports of wheat including flour, into European
countries, years beginning July 1, 1937 to 1939


Country


: 1937-38 :


: Million
: bushel s


Belgium ................:
Czechoslovakia. ......*.:
Denmark ..............:
Finland ................ .
France ..... .... ........ :
Germany ............ :
Austria .............. ..*:
Greece ............ .... :
Ireland .. ............. .
Italy ........ .........:
Latvia ....... ......... :
Netherlands ...........:
Norway .. ................
Poland ................ :
Portugal ......... .......
Sweden ......* ...........
Switzerland ............:
United Kingdom .........:
Total imports of :
above ............:

Spain ...... .............
Total imports ........:
Total exports ........:
Total net imports ....:
Shipments to non-Europe
*


36
2/- 1
6
3
15
) 54
18
14
5
1
24
7

1
2/ 1
14
193


391


394
2
392
99


{ Reported net imports
1938-39 : July 1 to: 1938-39 :1939-0O l/


Million
bushels

39
2/ 1
5
2
2/ 2
45
14
17
14

29
g
I-3
4
2
17
220


Million
bushels


Oct.
Aug.
Dec.
Aug.
July
July
Dec.
Aug.
July
Aug.
Dec.
Dec.
July
NoT.
Sept.
Dec.
Aug.


Million
bushels


3-1
J2-


7
2
3

15
4


416


432
6
426
147


105
0
105


113
- 2
111


Compiled from official sources -xcept as otherwise stated.

I/ Forecast of net imports for the entire year found in WS-37, November 1939,
p. gor
2/ Net exports.
3' Less than 500,000 bushels.
/ Net exports of less than 500,000 bushels.






- 23 -


Chah es in tables accornanyin- wheat charts in Wheat Situation for
August 26, 1939 and in Agricultural Outlook Charts 1940
(Revisions Pni additions are u.ndrl.ned.'

Page in:-
Aug. : Chart
Wheat : Bock
Situation


1 & 2
3
4


Revi sed.
Revi sed.
193g
1939
194o0 /
19 33
1939

1937
193 8
1939
With only
1937
193~
1939


Footnote
8 1937
1938
1939
Footnote
9 1938
1939
2'Tth onl;
1937
193y
1939
Footnote
10 1937
1938
1939
Footnote
11 1939
Footnote
13 Revised I
14 1938
1939 3/
15 1937
1938
1939 I/


table on pa'-e 14 Theat Situation, February, 1940


table 9, this issue
56Z539 12.2 -, I1i3
02 .. 12- 2. : 1

oU Q2S 10.6 241,559
-L53 10.1 19hSif2.
19,425 (Pros-ective seedings)
57 373 3o 0 269
78 3_2. !1i 6g 2z46


154


o old whe .-
37 3
60 o
114 I
5/ Del1 t
10 1


20 l
19
4/ Delete
39 2
31 2
r old whea
15 2
37 2
30 2
6/ Delete
18 I1
31 1
73 1


Y1
t in
73
21.
c^


14
1 7
rn


t in
5

23


02
57


461
all stocks
410




127
99

234
all stocks
273
2173
233-


--- 2.


5/ Delete

5/ Delete


table

76.9
76.9


12 this issue
61.1 100.6

20.2 1,533 .3

22.3 1.71g76


positions
69 2L1


5 239


posi
5
5

20
78


tinns
231
238.


4


78
154


60
11.4


20
19


31


37
30

861
111


-531


22.2
2Utz


54.7


Continued -


4 & 5
6
7


110.g
69.5


110.9
69.5


87
66


69.6


112.6


127.9
79.1


WS-l1


3j






- 24 -


Changes in tables accompanying wheat charts in Wheat Situatten for
August 26, 1939 and in Agricultural Outlook Charts 1940 Cont'd
(Revisions and additions are underlined).

Pa,e in:-
Aug. : Chart
Wheat :Book
Situation


V/ 106.374 37
)te 5] Delete
3/ Blank
274 221
147 225
103 (S3)4J/ 52
1 4(154)4/ 35
29T(255)YJ 118
footnote 4/ Stocks


70,185

Blank
143
105
59
12.
of old


1.718
102
6g
53
63.
61
wheat only


788

U12(292)
0.2(372) J
th (720)
the United


States
Revised table on page 18 W',heat Situation,February 1940
August 1939 5~1 64.6 13-6
(Liverpool Market closed since September 2, 1939)
1938 106,374 254,286


24 Kansas City
1939 66.7
St. Louis
1939 6g.5
25 1939 6g.6
26 Minn r-nolis No.
1939 77.g
Minneaoolis No.
1939 73.3


64.6 85.9. 82.7 .8 98.9 101.2 99.4


68.5
69.5
1 Dark
76.2
2 Hard
80.1


88.4 97.5 92.0
81.0 80.0 80.0
Northern Spring
92.5 88r.a 90.9
Amber Durum /
94.9 90.1 89.1


103.9
1L.7


109531 105.6
85.1 84.9


103. 104.8 1o4.3
102.2 100.2 99.


1938
Footnc
1939
1934
1935
1937
1938
1939
Insert


wS-41






WS-41


- 25 -


WHERE TO FIND STATISTICS ON TH heatET SITUATION NOT INCLUDED IN THIS ISSUE: /)


TE WORLD WHEAT SITUATION
Supply and distribution
1922-38 . ....
Averages 1924-28, 1928-37, annual 1914,1937 .

Production
Specified countries, 1936-38 .

Stocks, J3l1y 1
1938-39 . ... .
1922-39 . . .
Major exporting countries and afloat, 1922-39

International trade
International trade in wheat including flour,
1909-38 . .
International trade in wheat flour, 1909-38
W"rld shipments and to Europe and non-Europe,
averages 1910-14, 1930-34, and annual .


. Page


I s sue


S 18 Feb. 1940 WS-40
. 6 Sept.1939 WS-35


5 Jan. 1940 WS-39


. 4
. 18
. 8



* 21
* 25


Oct.
Feb.
Aug.



Feb.
Jan.


1939
1940
1939



1940
194o


ws-36
ws-4o
WS-34



ws-4o
WS-39


. 7 Sept.1939 WS-35


THE 0ORESTIC WEA.T SITUATION
Supply and distribution
All wheat, 1923-38 . ..
All wheat, averages 1910-14, 1924-28, 1928-37,
annual, 1913-16, 1937 . .. .
Classes, average 1929-33, annual' 1937-39 .

Troduction
Classes, 1919-39 . .
do . .
Stcrks
July 1, 1923-39 . .
January 1, 1936-40 . .. .

E~Xrcrts ani imports
Exports of wheat including flour to specified
countries, 1909-38 ... .
do
Exports of wheat to specified countries, semi-
annually beginning July 1936 .
Exports of what flour to specified countries,
semi-annually, be"inninr.- July 1936 .
Imports into the United States, 1923-38 .
Inco me
Sales, price per bushpl, and cash income,1910-39
I/ Selected tables used most frequently


14 Feb. 1940 WS-40

11 Sept.1939 WS-35
15 Feb. 1940 WS-4O


Jan.
Feb.


14 Feb.
8 Feb.


Feb.
Jan.


1940
1939

1940
1940


1940o
1939


WS-39
WS-28

ws-40
WS-40


ws-40
WS-27


19 Feb. 1940 WS-40


Feb.
Aug.


1940
1939


WS-40
WS-34


13 Feb. 1940 WS-4O


-STATISTICS ON THE lYE SITUATION IN "THE WHEAT SITUATION" FEPflUAiY 26,1940




UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
lI IIIIIII lill62 08861 8730IIlIt11 11ll
3 1262 08861 8730

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