Wheat situation

UNITED STATES DEPAFRTINT O0 AGRICULTURE
Bureau of Agricultural Economies
7ashington

WS-37 november 25, 1939
~~~~~------- -- ---_-- -_-- ,-- --------.--i--.--.---,
THE WHEAT SITUATION
Including Rye

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Summary

Available information indicates that the acreaGe seeded to wheat

in the United States for harvest in 1940 may be about the same as was seeded

for harvest in 1939. If the total wheat seedings for harvest in 1940 are

unchanged from the 64.6 million acres seeded last year, and average yields

are obtained, production will total about 760 million bushels. This would

be about 75 million bushels more t.han the. average domestic disa-ppearance of

685 million bushels during the l'.st 10 years. Unless growing conditions in

the winter viea.t States are unu-,au.lly favorable for the remainder of the

growing season, however, and conditions for spring w.,heat are also favorable,

yields per seeded acre for all wheat will be below average. This might

cause 1940 production to be les13 than the qu':tntity consuuaed and result in a

reduction, by the close of the 194C0-41 markretig year, of the moderately

large United States carry-over at the b1:-gir-nirn of the season.

World vwheat acreage in 1940 is not likely to be greatly different

from the acreage this year. Average yields on this acrea.:e would again re-

sult in a crop almost equal to prospective world consumption. This would not

substantially reduce the large world carry-over stocks.

October 1 stocks of wheat in the United States are estimated at about

794 million bushels, inl.icating a domestic disape-rrance of about 219 million

bushels for the July-September period. This materially smaller disappearance

than for the same period in 1938 is a result of a sharp decline in the quantity






WS-37 2-
of wheat used as feed. The quantity of wheat fed last year was the third

largest on record.

World imports of wheat, including flour, in 1939-40 may total between

525 rtnd 550 million bushels, according to present appraisal, compared with

580 million bushels in 1938-39- Exportable supplies available in surplus-

producing countries are far in excess of this qumantity. As a result, exports

of United States wheat and flour may total less than one-half of the 107

million bushels exported in the year cndod Juno 30, 1939.

Prospective world wheat supplies I/ for the year beginning July 1,

1939 are now indicated to be about 290 million bushels more than for the

preceding year. Incrcr.ses in carry-over stocks July 1, 1939 more than offset

the decrease in production. World stocks V/ of old wheat on July 1 are now

estimated at about 1,190 million bushels, or about 590 million bushels more

than a year earlier. World wheat production V/ is now ortim.ated at about

4,297 million bushels, or about 300 million bushels less than in 193S. The

crop in the Norrthern Hemisphere is estimated to be about 3,524 million bushels,

which is about 190 million bushels less than the har-vest of 1938. Weather

conditions to date indicate a decrcr.so in production of about 110 million

b-ishils for the Southern Hemisphere countries.

World wheat stocks on July 1, 1940 are expected to be about 1.5 billion

bushels, which would bo a now high record and about 300 million bushels above

the record high stocks of last July.

Cirrcnt what prices in the Unitcd States, influ.reced by continued

drought conditions in the winter wheu.t States and marketing of only moderate

size, are higher thmn they were a month ago.

1/ All references to world acr'- o, supplies, production, and stocks in this
report exclude the U.S.S.R. and China, on:ccpt where noted.







WS-37


The 1939 production of 7re in the 21 countries for which reports are

available, and which last year produced almost 90 pe'rccnt of the estimated

world rye production, is indicate to' be about 2 percent less than the esti-

mated production in those same countries last yer:r.

THE 'O-iLD 1HPAT SITUATION 2/

BACKGROULTD.- Total world supplies of wheat increased sharply
fio:. 1924 to 1933, largely as a result of increased aoreaGe.
From 1934 to 1936 world supplies declined, follo-'in-g successive
yers of srnail yields nnd increased world de.na.i Supplies in-
cren.ced slightly in 1937. With the return of more normal yields
on the large acreate, supplies in 1938 were again large the
largest on record up to that time.

Total world shipments of vwhe:.t aver~gd 751 million
bushels for the period 1923-37, reached a p-Eak of 913 million
bushels in the yc.cr baginirin- July 1928, and then declined
sharply, largely as a rc,-ult of the measures taken by importing
countries to reduce the use of fortirn wiLat. Y*r the year be-
iinn.i ...;. July 1, 193, *.:!rld. shiplints were 598 million bushels.

World wheat pricre- Cdoclin-.:d in the period 1924-33 with
the increase in world Fuppli s. The sharp decline in prices
after 1929 was caused largely by the general decline in
industrial activity oan.; cou-.odity prices. From the spring of
1933 to the u.lv-i-r of 1937, worli wheat prices moved steadily
upward, r iflecting a world-wide recovery in commodity price
levels, currency depreciation, and re'luccd production. The
world price for the 1937 crop -r,:n:ined practically unchanged
from that of a year earlier. In 1938 world prices a:7.in de-
clined sharply as a result of the record world production and
wealkess of Ldu-.arad.

World July 19f stocks estinat,:d. at 590 million
bushels above 193e stocks

lThe world vwhcat carry-over 2/ on July 1, 1939 is now estimated at
1,189 million bushels, which is 590 million bushels above the record high
stocks of a year earlier. The present estimate is 24 million bushels more
than the first estimate issued in October, zand 11 million bushels below the
June approximation. Estimates by countries arc sho'n in table 1.


2/ All i _fcrenccs to -orld acrc..-c, supplies, production, and stocks in this
report exclude the U.S.S.R. and China, except where noted.






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Table 1.- Estimated rrorld. old cro-? ""heat stocks 1/, about July 1,
193J "nd 1939

:: : 1939 compared
Countries 193_ 1939 2I : with 1938
: Million Million Miilion
: Lbushels :. 1 bUh:l,.

United States 5 .................: 14 2-5 t 101
Canada .. ...... ...............: 35 113 S3
Ar..-ntina .... ........... ........: 72 13 l141
Australia ........... ...... ... .....: 3 7 4
Danu be ...........................: 4. 75 27
OthI:r annd afloat ................: 72 111 39
Total of above ...............: 444 39_ +...95
ropa'~e, e-clnili:g Danube and
Soviet PR'hi ................: 1YI5 fl 195
Total .......................: 9 1,189 :90
1/ E.:cludes Soviet Russia m.rtn China. Co-.:,"'.rable estimates for 1937 in
'"he 71.i-t Situation," Sc-t'-mber 23,, 193, p~e 6, table 2.
2/ Prelininar-y.
3/ Old-crop wheat only.

World 199 cro now estim'td at 3 00 million bushels
below 19o 8 crop

T'orld pr-coluction of v;ho.t in 1939-40 is now estimated at 4,287 million
bushels, or abc't 23 million bushels above the estimate of a 2lonth nro. This
is, however, about 300 million bushels less than the record crop of 1938-39.
The Northern Heuisphere total is now cstinated at 3,S24 million cushols, or
190 million bushels less than that of last year. Most of the increase over
last nonthls estimate is in the Canadian production, 7/hich is now placed at
479 million bushels. The production in the Southem Hnemic'h:h!r is indicated
to be about 463 million bushels, or about 115 million bushels loss than in
1938-39.

The eocond estinmrtc of the Cr.- bushels, con ~r -red wiith the previous estimates of 449,C0I ,o 0 bu:hels, and
193g production of 35C,O10,000 bushels. The increased estimate is the re-
sult of the increased estimate for the rrairic Provinces, vwich are now re-
port-r. to have prcaiccd 452 million bushels in the current s-'-.sn. This
fia-ure includes 11,300,000 bushels of Gduru:. Generally spe.-i:.n., the c-heat
crop is of very high -;rrl, and it ie estimated that inre than 75 percent of
the. cron viill grade No. 2 Manitoba or totter.

The ~uropan v:heot cre( is nov estimated to be about 150 million
bushels less thani that of last year.

In Arcntina, the I-.ir'h teper aturcs during the winter months which
caused abnormal develomnr.nt of the Dlant have been followed by excessive






ws-37


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moisture during October and November. This has cnuscd considerable damage
to the crop. It is estimated that frcm 10 to 30 percent of the wheat has
been dn.n-aged irrcparably. The excessive dampness and high temperatures
rake the crop susceptible to r.st de-olopmont. Both red and black rust
are reported as spr-eading. Most of the d-2_'r reported so far has been in
Santa Fe, central Cordoba an.d eastern Etro Rios. fn the basis of weather
conditions to date, the crop is estiuat..d. at 200 million bushels. Harvest-
ing is now under way in tho northern provinces, and threshing results show
the v-ihcr.t to be light weight and very poor quality.

Exccssivc rainfalls in come p-rts of Australia, but a deficiency in
other parts, make wide variations in yields probable. The crop is officially
estimated at 180 million bushels, but trade sources believe the yield will
probably be considerably below thisfigure. qet weather is causing sone de-
12i in harvesting and rust is reported to be causing damage in sone sections.

Table 2.- Uhea.t: Production, in specified countries, 1936-39


Country : 1936 : 1937 : 1938 : 1939

: ,0001,00 00 1,000 1,000
ITorthern Henisphere : bushels bushels bushels bshels
North Axjerica:
United States ...........: 626,76 875,676 930,801 739,445
Canada ....................: 219,218 180,210 350,010 478,965
Mexico ...................0 13,425 / 13,00
Total (3) ...............: 1,066,473 1294, 236 1,231,410
Europe:
Europe excl. Danube
Basin V2 (26) ...........: 1,096,026 1,177,163 1,392,738 1,257,941
Danube Basin (4) .........: 34,279 36146 466,212 453,612
Total (30) ..............: 1,481,305 1,538 626 1,858 950 1,711,553
North Africa (4) ..........: 95,791 117,015 118,011 148,949
Asia (6) ..................: __6,6 579699 638.905 629,233
Total 43 countries ......:_3,002,297 3,301,13 3.910102 3720,593
Est imated Northern
Hemisphere total, ex- :
cludlirn. Soviet Russia :
and Chir.a 3J ..........: 3,107,000 3,406,000 4,014,000 3,824,000
Southern Henisphere
Argentina ...................: 249,193 184,801 336,201 4/200,000
Australia ..................: 151,390 187,256 154,426 180,042
Union of South Africa .......: 16,077 10,157 17,093 1I 15,000
Estimated world total,
excluding Soviet Russia :
and China ]/ ..............: 3,579,000 3,852,000 4,5g8,000 4,287,000
Compiled froi official data, I/ A-Tro;inxation. 2/ Excludes Soviet Russia.
31 Includes, besides countries listci, estimates for wheat producing coun-
tries for which r1-orts are not available. 4/ Based on weather conditions
to date.







NS-37 6 -

World wheat stocks July 1, ~0 expected to be" about
300 million bushels larger than in 139

On the basis of present supply estimates and a moderate decrease
in world disappearance, world stocks on July 1, 1940 are expected to be
about 1.5 billion bushels (table 3). Stocks of this size would be about
300 million bushels above the record high stocks of last July, and 2.7
times world traLde in wheat, which during the past 5 yea.-s averaged about
550 million bushels.

Table 3.-Estimated world supply and distribution, 1937-39

Item 1937 1938 1/ 1939 l
: Mil. bu. Mil. bu. Mil. bu.
Sup plles
Stocks, July 1 ................ 519 599 1,189
Production .................... 52 4,5S 4,287
Total ..................... 4.371 .5.187 5__ 6__
.,et exports from U.S.S.R. ........ _3 5
Total supply .............: .4,410 5,224 5,481

Distribution
Di-.sppe ranc e .................... 4, 000
Stocks at end of year .......... 599 1,1g9 ,li4

1/ Preliminary.

No marked change in world -cr-..ge in prospect for 140

No marked change in the wheat acreage for the 1940 crop in Europe is
expected. Probable decreases in the acreage seeded in the arcas of military
operations are likely to be about offset by increases in neu-r:_- countries
and in the United Kingdom. Most of the countries of western Europe had planned
to seed as large a wheat r.crzae as possible ind incre- seo were expected in
som,' sections, but unf-.vor-ble weather during November has dol.-.yed seedings
and m-y restrict acreage to soiae extent. In the Balkan countries the :weather
was favorable for seeding, and an acroe,'e equal to th.it of lact year is expect-
ed. In Italy some inc.'.:"se in the acreage is expected, and ear-ly sown grains
are resorted to be in f avorable condition in that country. In Soviet Russia
seeding is about completed, and soil conditions are generally favorable for
germination. The total ;cr-' ..:. seeded to winter grains is expected to be
about the sume as that seeded a yerr ago.

In the Punjab, which produces about one-third of the wheat crop of
India, the weather has been too hot and dry for seeding. In other parts of
I"di.i, ho''.over, conditions .ro s .tisfactory. It is too early to apprise
the probabilities for the 1940 CranadiAn r .heat crop or the 1940-41 wheat crops
of Australia and Ar:ontina, but there is no reason to aunticipte a mLatcrial
reduction in acreage in these countries.









World acreage'in 1940, therefore, is not expected to be gi-retly
different from the acreage this year. Average yields on this acreage
would again result in a crop; almost equJ.l to probably :vorinld consumption,
which in turn would not substantially reduce"the large carry-over stocks.

Exportable surpluses far in excess of export prospects *in 'l -40

World imports of -.:heat, including flour,, in. -1939-40 my total
between 525 and 550 million bushels, according,to-present h'praisal
(table 4), compared with about 580 million bu$helsin.1938-39. The
quantities available for exnort (July 1 stocks .plus production, "after'
allo'-:nr; for annual utilization and a "minimum no.-,il"lu'l :y ''1 stocks in
1940) in the three principal competing exporting. countries' end the Danubian
cou-r.tries total about 900 million bushels, or, fully 350 million bushels
more tha-: prospective import takings. : ...* .

Canadian stocks on July 1, 1939 were estimated at 118 million
bushels and production at, 479 million bushels. .Deducting 122 and 50 mil-
lion bushc-ls, resp.-.ctively, for domestic disappearance- and minimum stocks
on July 1, 1940, would leave about 425 million. bshels available for
export from Canada. Evc,, thou-h production in Argentina m:ty'be 16nly about
200 million bushels, the large stocks on hand July, L T07 make t'the ,quantity
available for report total about 240 million bushpls... Prod1ibtion in
Australia is new officially estimated at 180 million, bushel ,' tihich. with
stocks of old wheat would permit exports of about.130. million bushels.
Supplies available e for export in the Danibion countries are estimated at
about 100 million bushlS.' In addition there are..L.rport supplies in other
countries, including North Africa, India, Turkey, and the U.S.S.R. Exports
from the Soviet Union are expected to be small in 1939-401, since the crop
in Russia ap-ears to be only a :.oderate-cized one and surplus supplies may
be retained because of hostilities in Europe. ... ... '


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Ws-37







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Table 4,- Net imports of wheat including flour, years beginning
July 1, 1937 to 1939

:Forecast for
Country 1937-38 : 193-39 o1939-4o
: Mil. bu. Mil. bu. Mil. bu.
Europe
Belgium ,...................: 36 39 35
Czechoslovakia .............: l/- 1 j/- 1 -
Denmark ....................: 6 5 7
Estonia .............. .: 0 0 1
Finland ...................: 3 2 2
France .....................: 15 /- 2 20
Germany ....................) 5 45 15
Austria ................... )
Greece .....................: 1 14 15
Ireland .................... 14 17 18
Italy ..................... 5 14 15
Latvia ............. 1 0 0
Netherlands ................: 24 29 29
Norway ......... .........: 7 8 7
Poland .... ...... .....: / 1/- 3 0
Portugal ...................: 1 4 1
Spain ......................: 3 16 3
Sweden .............. ....: 1- 1 2 1
Switzerland ..............: 14 17 16
United Kingdom .............: 193 220 215

Total European imports ...: 394 432 h00

Total non-European 4/ ....: 4/ 99 147 135

Total world ..............: 493 579 535

Total exports, European im- :
porting countries .......,.: 2 6

CompilA from official sources except as otherwise stated.
SNet exports.
SIncludes Sudetenland and Memel.
SNet exports of less than 500,000 bushels.
Broomhall's shipments to non-European countries.
European forecast for 1939-40 with minor exceptions by the London office.

Exports of wheat, including flour, from the United States from July 1
through November 11 are estimated at about 24 million bushels. This is an
18-percent reduction from the quantity of exports during the corresponding
period last year. Exports for the rest of the marketing season, however,
are not expected to continue at this rate. In fact, it now appears that
United States exports for the entire season may total less than one-half of


ws-37







ws-37


the 107 million bushels exported in the year ended June 30, 1939. Factors
which will contribute to this reduction are (1) the continued poor out-C
look for the domestic winter wheat crop and prevailing dry conditions in
the spring wheat area; (2) United Kingdom preference for wheat from'Aus-
tralia,' Canada and Argentina, because these countries accept pound sterling
exchange; (3) the desire of the United Kingdom to conserve dollar exchange
by limiting purchases in the United States largely to nonagricultural pro-
ducts not readily obtainable elsewhere; (4) the ability of France to secure
about all of its imports of wheat from North Africa, and of Germany and
Italy from countries to the east; and (5) some reduction of United States
exports to neutral countries because of the uncertainties of shipping.

The surplus available for export from principal surplus-producing
countries on October 1 is shown in table 10, and current trade statistics
with comparisons in tables 11 to 14.

Governmental measures designed to meet
war conditions

Britai'n and France plan to act as a single economic unit, according
to an announcement in London, November 17. Aims are to eliminate competition
between the tw ..countries in.their purchases in the world markets, to combine
their resources and those of their empires, to reduce unnecessary imports,
and to control distribution.

This action was the result of experience gained during the World
War. During the first 2 years of the World War, whcrt was handled by the
private grain trade in the important allied countries, with the exception
of Belgium and to some exte.:t France. After the occupation of Belgium by
Germany, import needs in that country were in the hands of the Commission
for the Relief of Belgium. From October 1915 to November 1916 wheat was
purchased in France by the Food Department of the Ministry of Co-,jcrce con-
currently with private traders. Only after anxiety arose as a result of
advancing prices and the possibility of intensified submarine warfare was
a roy l co-imission on wheat supplies established in Great Britain in October
1916. This commission' took over the purchase of overseas supplies. A month
later (November 29, 1916) a "Wheat Executive Agreeient" between Great Britain,
Fr -:.ce, and Italy was signed, under which the importation, distribution, and
shipping not only of wheat but of all cereals were arranged on a common basis
for the three countries. The "Wncat Executive" was located at London, and
the subsidiary body established to buy wheat in the United States, called
The Wheat Export Company, established offices in New York.

Other governmental measures undertaken to meet present .war conditions
include the following: The immediate use of the blockade, the early applica-
tion of restrictions upon consumption, and efforts to increase acreage, es-
pecially in Great Britain. These measures were undertaken in the World War
only after a considerable period of time had elapsed.

Winnipeg prices continue to decline

The sharp decline in Winnipeg prices, which started in early September,
moderated somewhat after being temporarily checked in early October. The


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WS-37


- 10 -


weakness in Canadian prices is the result of the very large crop, the estimate
of which was increased 30 million bushels to 479 million bushels on November
10. Winnipeg Decem:ber futures averaged 62 cents for the week ended November
18, compared with 65 cents for the week ended October 21 (table 9). December
whe.-t futures at Winnipeg for the week ended November 18 averaged 26 cents
lower than at Chicago, compared with 20 cents lower for the month of October,
and 15 cents lower for September (table 5).

Prices at Buenos Aires have changed little during the past month, and
the price situation remained weak. Stocks in Argentina on Tctober 1 were esti-
mated at 100 million bushels, these stocks are so crowding warehouse space
that little space is left in which to store the new crop. Moreover, there ap-
pears to be insufficient tonnage available to move the what overseas in any-
thing like a normal flow. Farmers will no doubt be advised to keep their
grain on farms. The congested state of the port of Santa Fe is such that
the Grain Board has agreed to accept delivery at Rosario instead of the more
northern ports.


Table 5.- Spreads between domestic wheat prices
Winnipeg and Liverpool, specified periods,


aud prices at
1937-39


: December futures per bushel :Ca.sh wheat per bushel
: Cnicao : Kansas City : No. 2 Hard Winter
Month
and related to related to :(Kansas City)related to
year : ::: o. 3 Parcels
SWinnipeg :Liverpool : Winnipeg :Liverpool : Manitoba (Liverpool)
: : : ..:(Wininipeg) :
: Cents Cents Cent s Cent s Cents Cents
September
1937 : 17.3 23.6 2.5 28.8 11.6 26.5
1938 : 2.8 6. 0.9 10.5 7.9 13.3
1939 : 15.4 -- 10.6 .- 23.2 --

October
1937 :- 20.0 2.7 23.0 31.7 11.4 -31.2
193 : 5.8 1.7 1.9 5.6 10.0 8.7
1939 : 19.8 -- 14.7 -- 23.4 --
Week :
ended
Nov. 18
1937 : -.23.3 28.8 -25.6 31.1 19 --
193 : 5.1 1.0 0.8 3.3 111 --
1939 : 25.7 -- 20.0 -- 26.1 --

Minus sign before figure denotes Chicago or Kansas City below Winnipeg or
Liverpool.


THE CIOMESTIC WHEAT SITUATION

BACKGROUND.- The carry-over of old wheat in the United
States averaged about 220 million bushels in the 10-year






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period 1929-38. In 1933 stocks reached a record peak
of about 360 million bushels. The domestic disappear-
ance during the 10 years, 1929-38, averaged about 685
million bushels,

Domestic wheat prices from the spring of 1933
to that of 1937 were unusually high in relation to
world prices, as the result of snall crops in the
United States. During the year begir-ning July 1936,
both world and domestic prices advanced sharply as
a result of increased demand and snall supplies.
Prices received by producers for the 1936-37 season
averaged 103 cents per bushel; for the 1937-38 sea-
,on, 96 cents; and for the 1938-39 season 55 cents.
Prices were lower in 1938-39 largely as the result
of the large world wheat supplies.

Domestic July-Septere.ber disappearance less than
very larae disappeara.:ce ear earlier

October 1 stocks of wheat in the United States are estimated at about
794 million bushels compared with 845 million bushels a year earlier and 759
million bushels in 1937 (table 8), The estimate for October this year indi-
cates a domestic disappearance of about 219 million bushels for the July-
Septenber period compared with about 267 million bushels a year ago and 213
million bushels for the correspo..ding period in 1938 (table 6). The very
large quantity of wheat fed last year caused total domestic disappeara;ee
to be the third largest on record. The rate of wheat feeding this year is
less than for last year and largely accounts for the decline in the July-
oeptenbtr disappearance.

The October 1 stocks figure for thi year includes about 20 million
bushels of Federal Crop Insurance Reserves.

Table 6,- Supply and disappearance of wheat in the United States,
July-September, 1937 and 1938

Item 1937 1938 : 1939
: Million Million Million
:bushels bushels bushels
Supplies -
Stocks, July 1 ................. 83.1 153.5 254,3
Production .......................i 875.7 930.8 739.4
Less net exports, July.Septenber ...: 13.0 28.0 19.3
Total ............0........ 971.8 11123 1,013.
Stocks, October 1 -
On farns ..,............,....... 326.6 401,4 332.2
Commercial ,.................... : 141.5 139.3 162,0
Interior mills and elevators ...,. 152.6 174.4 162,6
Merchant mills and elevators l/ ..: 138.1 130,2 1373
Total .........................: 758.8 845.3 794.1
Disappearance S/ .....,............. 213,0 267.0 218,9

r Bureau of census raised to represent all merchant mills; includes
stored for others by merchant mills", 2/ Balancing item.







;vs-37 12 -

Uniter' States "-heat crop may be smallenough
to permit reduction in czrry-over stocks

Available information indicates that the acreage se'ee; to wheat
for harvest in 194!0 will be about the same as was see-led for harvest in
1939. Conditions for seeding ann starting wheat have been unfavorable
over -ra-tically the entire winter-wheat are. -_Even thou,--. hi-hr -heat
prices followed the declaration of war in Eurore, farmers ren2rally rid
not mlan extensive increases in seedings in the important ,i-.t*r ,..r.t
States.

If the total wheat seedings for harvest in 1940 are nr:ha;,ed from
the 64.6 million acres seeded last year, and average yields are obtained,
oro.-uction will total about 760 million bushels. This would e about 75
million bushels more than the average domestic disappearance of 685 mil-
lion bushels during the last 10 years. Unless growing conditions in the
r-inter-wheat States are .inusualy favorable for the rsemin.'r of the grow-
ing season, however, and conditions for scoring hheoAt aro .alco farvorable,
yields nor sooded acre for all wcrheat -'ill be below averroce. This mic-ht
c-nj.so the. 1940 production to b' loss th-.rn domestic dis.o.ner..rarnco and result
in a reduction at the close of the sonson of the moderately large carry-
over in prospect in the United States on July 1, 1940.

In much of the Greot Plains area, the available sur~-1-. of soil
moisture in the fall months is an i.rprortant factor in dot.. raining yields
of winter wheat the following year. Information available -.s of November
1 indicated that, in this area as a whole, soil moisture sunni." io. r.rc much
below normal and plantirg conditions w-ere less favorable t?-.: in :an.r- re-
cent year. Prospects in the Great Plains States, .rco.'di-.g-l, iro for
greater than nver-.ge abandonment., and blow average yi3olls n..r seeded acre.
Fall moisture up to November 1 has boon deficient also in the soft .-,inter-
-"heat States to such an extent that yields in those States m:..r like,-isc bo
r:3'ieed,

Whilo rains have fallen in E-.stern sections of the hard -'nter wheat
belt and over much of the soft wheat belt, dry areas of the eastern Plains
States have received no relief since Acvomber 1. The cro- condition in
Illinois is -coor in about seven rather.important counties, rnr the cron
is not all un in some localities, but the stand averages from 1 to 3
inches high t-here it ha.s p-nerred above ground. In Indir.na, anbot all the
i-'hoct is u7p rrd the condition is mostly fair to good, althou h many -ni.nts
a-re undersized. In Ohio, condition is fairly good, '-ith the -e.ather
favorable for Fro-,th.

In K-irtucky moderate improvement is noted, and star..is a.vorano
boutt three-fourths full oTor the State. Much of the cro'n is b"-c.-'.rd
-'here sorn '.er late but stands are i-proving as ernia?.tion nrogresses.
In Missouri d.do-uato rains have replenished tlo teo.soil moisture suffi-
ciently for go'o arldv nce, and wh.o.t has. made excellent nror-rss, o that
condition is no,' generally fair to good, with some renortod excellent on
llowon:ds. In eastern Kansas and C'.-lahoma "-heat sho-'s some imro-.-c"mnt,
esnocially -'here recent rains have eocu-rred, but in the west-rn parts of
these States some fields have not erirminated., nvM 'early plrrntod st-.nds have
died.







ws-37


- 13 -


Prceress of winter whe-t was orn~d in Trxas. Although it was too
dry in the Par.handle, no deterioration has yet occurred there; condition is
ger..:rPiy fair, although germination in r..me west-central localities is
consi'errd do'ulbtful. In the northwestern Dart of the main belt, winter
grain ha. deteriorated further and condition ranges from poor to fairly
good in the moot favored localities; in me.. 'nortiorn it is belio-ve, that
the season is too far n"var-.ced for best growth even if )adequate rains oc-
cur in the immediate future.

No rCrcipitation of imnort.ince has occurred in the northwestern wheat
bolt, incl"r'ing Montana, and rain is quite generally needed throughout the
area .s conditions vary from poor to good according to soil moisture. The
absence of snow cover in Montana 'rd the general dryness are quite unfavor-
able for wheat, which is norarn'ni the dormnnt stage.

Moisture in the fall is i port at in determining spring whent
yieldss unless offset by compr.rntively favorable precipitation in the spring.
While the crop is f-ced with those .-rdicrp of the present deficiency of fall
moisture, it is too early to a,,nrn..io the prospect for yields of spring
wheat.

Domestic wheat prices advanc- ,-.,it cor.-
tinued poor ,-inter -'he.t pronpects

Domestic -'-eat prices saiva-c.d during the past month, largely as
the result of continued dry conditions in the western part of the hard red
winter heoat belt and only modernte-sized mark.etings. No. 2 :Hrd Winter
-h'oat at Xarsas City .averaged 85.6 cents for the week ended :rv..'mb1r 1l
compared .-ith g1.5 cents an.d 83.3 certs for the -mcks ended October 14
prices at other domestic markets are shown in table 7 :-nd i t, ros prices,
both in domostic and foreign markets, in table 9.

The -'i thholding of wheat from market this year has bo'en an important
market factor. Withholding h.as bon ormcouraged by anticipation of higher
prices ,.s n result of the 7-ar, '- the governmental loan program, .and the
poor outlook for winter wheat. ''. Quantity of wTheat unOer Government loan
has i:cro-.s.Sd stea.,Mly, and r.t the middle of November totaled apmnroximately
157 million bushels, of which about 28 million bushels rere stored on farms
and. 129 million bushels in country and terminal warehouses. 'A yoar ago
stocks unr.er loan totaled only 40 million bushels.

Prices of Hard Winter heatt have been about 35 cents above levels
"Ihich wouldC move -'heat to 'Eu -.r,~, without t'.e Government subsidy. On the
other ha.:., domestic rice advances will be largely %l.ependent upon improve-
ment in Cpnadian -riccs because at the present time -orices are less than
10 cents bolo'- levels at h-rich imports would probably take place. Continued
h 'a-vy British purchases of Canadian grain would -robably check further de-
clines in Canadian prices an. have a tendency to improve domestic Trices.
Accord i-.r to current reports, Great Britain has been purchasing an average
of 1 million bushels of Canadian :-heat daily, starting several .'.eks ago.

Unless world '-.eat acrea-e is adjusted dcl.-n.:-arl or yield.s per acre
are small, very large world sunolies will probably continue during the






ws-37


1940-41 sersrn, ~nd niy imor'-.-em ".r t in world d '-hen.t prrices vrruld t-,en re-
ncn'l1 unon ir-nrcvo-~rt in rc .oid, or -. rise ir the T'orll rrice lovel. Wheat
prices in the United States art3 .- :,rectc to continue to avor.-;c rol.tively
hi-l c:-n -r,.d -,ith prices in other surplus-:r- -.:'ing countries acS 1:r.; s
the Government l1an e .mo ecoort r:'csi.:: nor gr:.s continue 2.nJ rld nrices
roen.in o107. Th: 2n.r.-"e -1i-tity of '"ho.~t beir.n ;lcc; under G':vrr.n'nt
lean is oporat~nlr.; to support domestic c nr-ces.

Tanble 7.- ,oihtel zorago csh rice of :"r -hot, _rocifie.'
n mar"'ts r.. Rates, 1C950?, r 1959s


Month
or date


:All cl'ssos: ; No. 2 : No, 1 :T. 2 Har"d : 2 : 2Wstern
:and. gr'fes :-- -rd ,7irtcr:Dk.!. Spring:Arnor D'.irun:R.-' Tint-r: Thite /
:six rnrcts:Kns. City:ir.!....nolis:.ir"n'n.lolis: St. Louis:Soe-ttle


1__938.
: Ct.


' :.nth-
July
Aug. :

Oct.

Oct. 7 :
14 :
21
28 :
Nov. 4
11 :
1 :


High
Low


59.9
6s. 3



65,7
65.1
66.0
64.-4
65.8
65.2


2/ :66.o
;/ :64.4


1939:193g
Ct.: Ct.

67.5:70.0
72.2:65.5
0o.0:65.7
85.6:64.7

85.3: 63. t
S3.6:65.9
c6.4:64.4
86.4:65.2
88.1:63.7
39.1:63.5
87.3:64.2

C3.1:65.9
83.6:63.5


fl-23_
Ct.

66.7T
64.06
~'5.9
82,7

32.5
21.5

S2.9
15.3
o6.6
6. 6
5. 6

S6.6
31.5


.:1938 : 1939 1938 :1939 :1938
Ct. Ct. Ct. t Ct.

:87.6 77.8 :79.8 73.3 6:.
77.5 76.2 73.1 80.1 :-5.6
,76.2 C2.5 :6".9 94.9 :'7. 1
:73.3 8.2 :65.5 90.1 :.5

:73.3 8.0 :65.1 90.6 67.0
:72,9 85.9 :66.2 89.3 6:.9
:T.O0 39.2 :95.2 90.8 :6.1
:74.1 'o,5 :65.65 3 S6..
:71.1 90.86 62.7 91. 661
:72.9 92.1 :65.1 90.b 66.0
:73.2, 9. :64.6 30.5 :".7

:74.1 92.1 :66.2 91.9 :6'.1
:71.1 85.9 :62.7 3s.5 :66.0


:1939:193: 1939


Ct. :Ct.

Es.5:67.8
6D.5:61.2

37.5:63.2

36.1:62.2
5.8:63.5
9q.5:63.3
3. 3:63.9
9C.3:63.0
93.o:63.3
21.1:63.4


Ct,

68.6
6~.5
81.0


77.4
78.9

81.1
80.9
80so.7


03.0:63.9 31.8
S5.8:62.2 77.4


IL. Tookly '.'r-:e )f ~.ily c.'sh quo tations, ...sis No. 1 sz.c-.d.
2J October 7 to November 1S, 1930, r-n corr3nsronk.ing -..tes f-'r 19, .


T-.ble G.-OctobTr 1 stocks cf wheat in the T:-itce S'-t -s,
1935-35
P sitin : 1935 : 1936 : 1937 13, : 1939
l n ]_ o -. b" 0 b'C 1,,-,Q bu.1,000 bu.


On f-ar:s .....................16
In c ,'ntry elevators r.1 ri ills: 1,734
Commorcirl stocks .......... : 703
In :mnrch-nt nills and elov- :


25,172
1151-24
: ,,4r


1 1 i,=6


) 1,4117

13 :., 273


332,213
162,542
162,045


tors J/ ....................: 1?3,9'' 119,635 133,160 130,198 137,332


- ta ...l ..............: 7'


540,7 0 75,,34 c7, 267 794,132


1/ r A .h'u of Consus r -.isoer t: '-r 'z c't r.1 -'c'n t *-ilir, ..!. '.-. "st.r
f',r .th' 1-'- mercharnt nills".


- 14 -


*







- 15 -


Table 9.- Average closing price of December wheat futures, specified
markets and dates, 1938 and 1939

Month : Winnipeg : Liverpool : Buenos : Kansas
or : _. : : Aires Chicago : City : Minneapolis
date : 1938: 1939: 9: 193939 938 : 1939 : 1938: 1939:1938 :1939: 1938: 1939
Month :Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
July : 76.0 56.0 82.6 57.4 72.9 67.6 67.6 62.9 76.9 70.6
Aug. : 68, 55:2 75-5 54:4 65.8 66.3 61.5 61.2 68.8 69.0
Sept. i.S 69.0 71:4 -- -- 646 84.4 60.9 79.6 66.5 85.2
Oct. 25 64:2 66:7 --- -- 65:0 84:. 61.1 78.9 66.3 82.7
Week .
ended-:
Oct. 7 : 58.8 63.6 68.2 ---2/ 58.82/ 53.9 64.2 81.9 60.0' 77.2 65.5 81.6
14 : 59.7 65.0 67.4 --- 57.24 52.3 65.0 82.7 61.0 78.0 66.0 81.3
'21 : 59.8 65.0 67.0 --- 54.7 51.5 65.5 85.4 61.8 79.7 66.8 83.2
28 : 58.6 63.8 64.7 --- 2 52.1 50.3 65.5 85.1 61.8- 79.7 '67.1 83.7
Nov. 4 : 57.3 62.8 62.0 --- 50.6 50.1 64.0 86.8 59.9 81.6 65.6 85.6
11 : 57.4 62.4 62.0 --- 53.8 51.7 '64.0 87.9 59.8 82.7 66.4 85.8
18 : 58.9 61.9 63.0 --- 55.22/ 51.2 64.0 87.6- 59.7 81.9 66.8 --

High 3/: 59.8 65.0 68.2 --- 58.82/ 53.9 65.5 87.9 61.8 82.7 67.1 85.8
Low 3: 57.3 61.9 62.0 --- 50.6~ 50.1 64.0 81.9 59.7 77.2 65.5 81.3
l/ Conversions at noon buying rate of exchange. 2/ November futures. 31 Oct. 7 to
Nov. 18, 1939, and corresponding dates, 1938. 4_/-November and December futures.

Table 10.- Wheat surplus for export or carry-over in three exporting
countries, United Kingdom port stocks and stocks afloat,
November 1, 1936-39 1/

: : :
Position : 1936 1937 : 1938 1939
Canada Mil. bu. Mil. bu. Mil. bu. Mil. bu.
In Canada ................ 155 87 203 368
In th2 United States ..... 22 2 4 16

Argentina ...... ........... 15 7 16 100
Australia .................. : 14 15 17 2/
Total .................. : 206 111 240

United Kingdom port stocks : 7 10 18 2/

Stocks afloat to:
United Kingdom ........... : 17 12 9 2/
Continent ........ ....... : 11 10 14 2
Orders .................. : 6 5 8__ 2
Total .................. : 41 37 49

Grand total ............ : 247 148 2S9
1/ Carry-over at the beginning of the year (Canada, July 31; Argentina, January 1;
Australia, December 1 of the previous year) plus production, minus domestic utiliza-
tion for the year minus monthly exports to date. 2/ Not available.


ws-37







- 16 -


Table 11.- Movement of wheat, including flour, from principal exportingg
countries, 1936-37 to 1939-40

: Exports as given by official sources
Country :Total : July 1 to date shown : Date
:1936-37 : 1937-38 :1938-39 :1937-38 :1938-39 :1939-40 :


: 1,000
:bushels


1,000 1,000 1,000
bushels bushels bushels


1,000 1,000
bushels bushels


United States 1/.:
Canada *.. **......:
Argentina .......:
Australia .......:
Soviet Union ....:
Hungary .........:
Yugoslavia .....:
Rumania .........:
Bulgaria ........:
BRr'.i i'h Tn~ir


21,584
213,028
162,977
97,712
4,479
27,428
17,954
36,258
7,275
IPF F71


107,194
94,546
69,670
123,453
43,354
9,368
5,012
32,210
8,439
l Q 677


115,784
159,885
116,116
96,685

27,650
5,346
43,940
2,633
2/1n fIl


15,330
36,806
11,157
13,076

1,525
1,975
10,090
1,085


29,792
57,088
15,192
17,904

2,200
1,586
7,009
177


22,032
63,939
41,522
10,467

7,837
2,496
6,210
1,521


Sept.
Oct..
Sept.
Aug.

Aug.
Aug.
Sept.
Aug.


30
31
30
31

31
31
30
31


C, 0 _
: 605,266 512,973 577,807
: Shipments as given by trade sources
: Total Week ended 1939 : July 1 Nov. 18
:1937-38 : 1938-39 : Icv. 4 : I'ov. 11: !ov. 18: 1938 : 1939


: 1,000
:bushels

North America 3/.: 184,720
Canada 4/ .......: 94,546
United States 6/.: 83,589
Argentina .......: 66,928
Australia ....... 127,520
Soviet Union .... 42,248
Danube and
Bulgaria 8/ ...: 37,232
British India ...:9/19,677
Total 10/ .....: 478,325
Total European
shipments 3/ .: 597,592
Total ex-Euro-
pcan shipments:
: ..........: 99,400


1,00C
bushels


245,296
159,885
94,157
114,272
102,116
39,824

52,848
2/9/10,011


1,000
bushels

2,042
1,800
233
3,890

352

280
0


1,000 1,000
bushels bushels


3,549
5/3,100
-124
5,149

C


1,2E4
0


4,206
5/ 3,700
516
3,115

0


960
0


564,:367


1,000 1,000
bushels bushels

99,448 71,629
72,700 72,600
31,661 20,216
22,748 65,626
7/18,696 7/11,028
35,272 2,352


11,448
6,208


12,968
0


193,820 163,603


450, 784


146,76C


/ Includes flour killedd in bond frcm foreign wheat.
2/ Incomplete; excludes land trade for June.
3/ Brcorrj;all's Corn Trade News.
SOfficial exports as reported to date, supplemented by reported weekly clearances
of wheat, and estimates of flour shipments.
/ Figure derived by subtracting the United States exports from Broomhall's estimate
for liorth America.
6/ Official reports received from 16 principal ports only.
/Through September 2 only.
Black Sea shipments only.
Official.
TO/ Total of trade figures includes North America as reported by Broomhall's but
does not include items 2 and 3.


WS-37


'PyIi + i c ) .-n A.t







- 17 -


Table 12.- Shipmenrts of wheat, including flur from principal
exporting countries, specified dates, 1933 a.d 1939


Period : Argentina.
: 1938 3: 939
1,000 1,000
bu. bu.
July-Sept. : .16592 42,280
ieek ended-:
Oct. 7 : 836 1,844
14 : 412 2,684
21 : 796 2,696
28 : 1,8 "3,968
ov. 4 : 1,012 :3,890
11 : 900 '5,148
18 : 712 .3.115


Australia


: 1938
1,000
bu.
24,492

972
1,708
844
1,796
49-3
568
584


S1939 -
1,000
bu.
11/1,028


Dsanulc


: 1938
1,000
bu.
3,8f8

400
920
680.
1,576.
81:.8
2,256
2,256


: 1939
1,000
bu.
7,456

832
872
512
792
280
1,264
960


cr.rth America
: 93 : 1939
1,000 1,000
bu. bu.
54,768 51,712


5,776
4,768
8,104
7,360
6, 12
6,488
5,992


3,824
1,744
2,512
2,040
2,042
3,549
4,206


Compiled froi. Brc., h111's Corn Trade 'e-is.
Ij Th-cugh September 2 only.
2/ Tot available.


Table 13.- Exports of wheat and wl'eat flour
1938 an' 1939

(Includes flour milled in bond from


Period


WVheat


* ~Yh: at


* 1936 : 1939 :1938
: 1,000 -1,000 1,000
: bushels bush'ls barrels


from the United States


foreign
flour
1939
1,000
barrels


wheat)
: ',That including
S flour
: 1938 : 1939
1,000 1,00(
burh -s bushe:


July-Sept. 21,595
eie: ce ended 1,/
Oct. 7 572
14 : 567
21 : 476
23 : 306
Nov. 4 : 717
11 3C7
18 : 2,092


8,657 603


266
663
293
610
12
29
2/ 164


55
100
17
51
93
84
51


1,445

120
44
134
85
47
84
2/ 75


24,429 15,449


830
1,037
556
546
1,154
782
2,332


830
870
923
1,010
233
424
/ 516


Compiled from reports of the Denartment of CoImaerce.
i/ Data for total exports from the United States by weeks are not avail-
able. Th:se data represent exports through 16 of the principal ports.
2/ PrelLrimiary.


0
Ls


:- 193 : 199-13


WS-37


,.







- 18 -


Table l4.- Net imports of wheat including flour, into European
countries, years beginning July 1, 1937 to 1939


Country


Belgium ..............
Czechoslovakia .......
Denmark ..............
Finland ..............
France ...............
Germany ..............
Austria ..............
Greece ...........
Ireland ..............
Italy ................
Latvia ...............
Netherlands ..........
Norway ...............
Poland ...............
Portugal .............
Sweden ...............
Switzerland ..........
United Kingdom ......
Total imports of
above .........

Spain .................

Total imports ......
Total exports ......
Total net imports ..


: : Reported net imports
: 1937-38 : 1938-39 :July 1 to: 1938-39 : 1939-40


Mil. bu. Mil. bu.:

36 39
:1/ 1 1/ 1
6 5
3 2
15 1/ 2
S 54 45 (
18 14
14 17
5 14
1 2/
24 29
7 8
: 31 I 3
: 1 4 :
:1/ 1 2 ::
14 17
: 193 220
3 -46
: 391 416


394
2
392


: Mil. bu. Mil. bu.


Aug. 31
Aug. 31
Sept. 30
Aug. 31
July 31
July 31
July 31
Aug. 31
July 31
July 31
Sept. 30
Sept. 30
July 31
Aug. 31
Sept. 30
Sept. 30
Aug. 31


16

432
6
426


Compiled from official


sources except as otherwise stated.


1 Net exports.
2 Less than 500,000 bushels.
j Net exports of less than 500,000 bushels.


1
;?


ws-37




p_- --. .._ --- -, ---- -- ------- ..



WS-37 19-

Table 15.- j'hat: Supp:ly, distri':uticn, a.:' .:'isa', pFarTnce
in ccitinent'il 'i:,it.ed States, -1923-39

_____ ________ 1 2A __________________
Year : Stcs : :
be- :: In re.'c ant: :
In : In : .ills and : : -f ,
eiin- I Hew (f..our ITot l
O: .n country :coi.- : elevat ors [ : C!)
nine Tot al cro, Ancluded) supply
Juin fans :eleva'.ors- mercial:an- st.red Total 'cr- :
Sand mills: stoclcsl/:fo:r otheths : :

S 1, 1, 1, 1 0 1,00 1,000 1,000
Sbushels bjusels bu'c ls b s!c.1s bE 'l e bushels 'i-usels bushels
With me'.; v.h: -t in co:. ..ercial .-r '. ie ,-hanl c. :'s
1923: 35,239 37,117 2 ,' 3 C 7 '.. 1','. 372
11'- .. 2 2. 3't
1924: 29,34 36,6', 3: ,11Z 33,000 13',0.7 '1r,617 304 7',008
1925: 2,635 25,2. 2 0 2,7 1.0..01 6E 2,700 1,747 77:.,348
1926: 27,071 ? ,51l 16,1.'. 2'7,: .. 5 .,..32 .-3 7 932,515
1927: 26,640 21,?6 1 .2 ,0,03. 10'',506 77,' 138 984,753
1928: 19,5CS 1',277 35,5 7 3: ,';20 11,3 '2 91,373 91 1,026,36
1929: 45,106 41,546 90,2 ; .' ?2,373 ?3,217 53 1,051,643
1931: 37,o7 30,252 203, -' 7 41, 12 313,2 1,' 7 1 ,25' r
1932: 93,769 41,-5 ..O ., 17 3 7' 10 1,132,410
1933: 82,3?2 e/,2o3 123,'.2 107,C52 37',. 5 .1.6 153 929,775
1934: 62,516 'F,12c .0,54i ,3,11 .c7'...7 52, .'.3 C ,15,5C C: 16,26
1935: 44,339 31,- 1 1,51 4,52. l -1; 31,617 08,45
1936 43,988 22,1., 2',2 5':'59 1", 626,7 3,45 803,195
1937: 21,51 11,r1g 16,197 :.;-/ 102,755 :75,6 o3 ,05
1938: 59,113 31,1.6 25,3;.3 5.,21 17'_:. 6 +,,'', 24 1,103,893
1939: 90,833 3. ,2'1 .'1,334 ',C 2. ,.92 /73,445 -- 1,034,937
With only old n:ht :'n l st. :c'c iic.
1937: 21,851 11,31. -, 02. .,~' ?,0-'0 5,6 34.. 59,400
1938: 59,113 31, -16 22,190 0,791 153,20 931, "'i 2.'6 1,084,327
1939: 90,38 3 ,291 ,103 /61,054 25,26 5/7 3,42.5 --- 993,791
1/ 1923 to 1926 Bradstreets, excluding country elevator stock. 1923-36 include some
new wheat.
2/ Stocks in merchant mills and. elevators 1923 and 1924 estimated in absence of ac-
tlial fi-ures: 1925 to 1938, Bureau of Census figures raised to represent all merchant
mills. Stored for others 1923 to 1929 estimated in absence of actual figures; 1930
t7 138, Bureau of Census figures raised to repre'-:-it all merchant mills. 1923-36 in-
clud"i so;e new wheat.
3/ From reports of Foreign and. Domestic Commerce of the United States. Imports in-
clude full-duty wheat, vwheat pain; a duty :o _10 percent ad valorem,, and flour in
terms of -.eakt; and exclude flour free for export as follows: 42,742 bushels in 1935-
36; 14,363 bushels in 1936-37; ancd 93,737 b'isl.ls in 1937-38.
4/ Includes durum wheat rtui----., froLi Montreal estimated at 1,500,000 bushels.
5/ Indicated October 1, 1939.
6' For 1937 excludes new wheat est:i.ated at 12,500,000 bushels; for 1938 excludes
13,423,000 bushels, and for 1939, 23,975,000 bushels reported as new wheat by Bureau
of Census.







27 -

Table 16.- heata: auppl;,:, *:is'. -J.bution, and disappearance
in cc.nt-nental United States, 1',23-31


: Distriblut ion
Year : _Excort ~ anrl shFipments _l : Dor.cstic disap;neara,.ce
be- : :Si- : : : Feed : Fou-s :
gin- : Exports :Expcrts:r:..~nts : :ifcd on : and con-:
nine : (wheat fl:our as: (f].cur: Total : Seed :far-i of :,.:ercial : Total
July :onl.-) : v:weat :includ-: : : wheat : feeds :


: :ed) 2/: growerss): 3/ :


: 1,000 ,0 1,000 1,000 1,00 1, 000 1,000
: bushels bushels s bus buls e busbhels buhcls bushels
:.ith new wvh"cat in cc:u.icr-cia. and merchant mill stoc::


1523
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929'
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934'
1935
1? 36
1935
193
1c/3
14 3-E


75,7C3
195,490
63,139
15,'250
145,99
103,114
3 ,175
76,305
96,521
20,-: 87
1l, 800
3,019
311
3,16

8 ,39


67,-13
59,47 7
31.,428
/ ",7 61

3 ,106
4, 179
36,063
26,37,
10, 979
1,79:
7,512
3,96
0 C1
1.,322
" ,."59


2,973
2,871
2,741
3,082
2,692
3,172
2,983
2,?50
2,757
3,023
2,779
2,783
2,908
3,009
3,321
2, 8r6


14 C,979Q
257,839
97,358
209,093
193,919
1/4,392
143,337
115,27?
125,65.5

28,377
13,314
7,11.5
12,276
103, 390
10'9,48/4


74,111
I .i*
79,a95
78,828
23,264
-3' 34

F" 3,353
S0, Oc6

E3, 13
77.832
82,220
,87,555
96,593
4,5 33
77,987


.'ith only olJ .-cheat in -.11 stoc"l: positions
193 : C3,747 1 322 3,321 103,390 9?,533
1938 : 3?53 22,059 2,586 l09,:. 77, 987


69,670
55,727
25,214
3L,261
44, 507
56,566
5C,769
157,183
173,991
124,912
7%,261
83,700
33,168
o.8,272
112, 60
131,643

112,860
131,643


1, 000
bushec-ls

1-76, 525
.7'71, 146
47J, 223
496,391
544,091
513, 42
477,305
509,063
499,802
511,157
1 76, 99
469,539

503,289
495,446
4S9,287

495,337
510,927


1,000
bushels

620,306
612,768
581,265
613,916
678,462
654,071
61,4r27
747,137
753,842
719,582
627,092
655,459
659,367
6.S3, 15L
702,839
690,917

7C2,730
720,557


Stocks
SJune 30


1,000
bushels

137,087
108,401
100,225
109,506
112,372
228,373
288,879
313,288
375,473
377,939
274,306
147,495
141,974
102,765
172,846
295,492

153,280
254,286


1/ Fromr: reports of Foreign and Eomestic Commerce of the United States. Exports in-
clude only flour made from dlonicstic wheat; 1923-35 estimated on basis of total ex-
ports less v;heat imported for million in bond and .export adjusted for changes in
carry-over; beginrin-: 1935 figures for e::ports of flour wholly from United States
wheat.
2/ Shipments are to Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and Virgin Islands (Virgin Islands
prior to December 31, 1934 included with domestic e:xports).
/ Balancing it-r.i.
4/ For individual items sec su5r-ly s:.ction.


.. s-3


-------


:*





Table 17.- Wheat: Estimated world supply, disappearance and prices, 1922-39

. : Production 2/ : British


Year : Stocks
beginning: about
July : Jly 1
1 /


Mil. bu. Mi


: : Total : Parcels
7.. Net
: : Canada, :: -- : : -Total : disap- : average
: t : Argen- : Europe : exports : supply : pear- : price
United and ~ ex- :.11 World from prc
SStates : : : : /. : ance : per
: Aus- TT t : :.U.S.S.R. : : 3/ : bushel
).TT q q P


: tralia : *. :
1. bu.7 il. bu. Mil. bu. Mil. bu. Mil. b


: : :.. 4/
u. Mil. bu. Mil. bu. Mil. bu. Cents


S3,218
3.535
3,143
3,396
3,504
3,6833
,005
3.582
3,894
3,877
3,876
3,848
3,561
.3,602.
3,578
3,852
S 4,.598-..
S:4,287


1
21

27
49
5

7
112
73
17
34
2
29
4
39
37..
(5)


S3,866
4,133
3,866'
3,996
4,206
4,375
4,756
4,609.
4,949
4,993
4,936
5,026
4,756
.4,583
4,349
4,430
.. .5,.24 .
(5,522)


I/ Excludes U.S.S.R. and China. .Includes some new- wheat in United. States Commercial and merchant mill
stocks. 2/ Year of harvest. Harvests of the Northern Hemisphere countries are combined with -those of the
Southern Hemisphere which immediately follow; thus the. crop hairvested in the Northern Hemisphere countries
in 1938 is combined with the Southern Hemisphere harvest'which' begins late in.1938 and ends early in 1039.
3/ Excludes production and stocks in U.S.S.R. and China but includes net exports from U.S.S.R. 4/ Deflated
by Statist Index (1910-14 = 100) and converted at par. 5/ Preliminary'

Production and export figures from official sources. Prices compiled from daily prices in the London
Grain, Seed and Oil Reporter.


1922
-923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939


647
577
723
573
653
687
751
1,020
943
1,046
1,043
1,144
1,193
952
767
539
619
1,230


847
759
842
669
832
875
914
823
886
942
757
552
526
626
627
876
''931
739


705
847
619
701
798
880
1,076
595
867
732
898
745
650
568
620
552
-- 841
859 -


S1,05o
1,263
1,64
1,4o4
1,215
1,275
1,409
1,449
1,36o
1,436
1,490
1,746
1,548
1,576
1,481


1,539
1.,859- -.
1,712


616 1
666
618
622
659
653
60o6
'715
781
767
731
o05
837
S.832
850


885
-.957
977'


3,289
3,41o
3,293
3,343
3,519
3,624
3,736.
3,666
3,903'
3,950
-3- 792
3,833
3,804o
3,816
3,810
3,811
..4,0 4


92
g4.
110
108
log s
108
104
91
101
75
76
78
70
79
84
105
lo0
.68


I






WS-37


RYE PRODUCTION

The 1939 production of rye in the 21 countries for which reports are
available is indicated to be about 930 million bushels, or 2 percent less
than the estimated production in these countries last y,..ar. The comparison
is subject to some inaccuracy, however, since the estimates for Germany and
Poland this yuar include production in territory not included in their
boundaries previously* These 21 countries last yerir --roduced almost 9' per-
cent of the estimated world rye production.

Table lg.- Rye: Production in specified countries, 1956-39

*


Country


: 1936


S 1937


: 1938


: 1939


1, 000 bu. 1,000 bu. 1,000 bu. 1,000 bu.


United States ......: 25,319
Canada .............: 4,281
Total (2) ...... 29,600


Europe :
Bulgaria ........:
Estonia ..........:
Finland ...
Germany .........:
Austria ....t....:
Greece .... .....
Hungary ........:
I-taly ... ... .
Latvia -/ ". .....:
Lithuania ..,.....
Luxemburg. 0 .....:
Netherlands ......:
Norway ..........:
Poland ...........:
liuriania ...... .:
Spain ...........*:
Sweden ...........:
Switzerland ......:
Yugoslavia .......:


8,188
6,044
12,134-
290 793
18,610
1,654
28,114
5,204
11,145
21, 54
449
18,736
. 4.25.
250,536
17,842
18,053
13,838
1,077
8,002


Total l18) ...: 732,198
Algeria ..........: 29
Total (21) ...: 761,827


49,830 55,C39 40,834
5,771 ?,988s 15,307
55,601 66,027 56,141


9,387 7,-97 9,67"
8,327 7,403 8,C42
16,982 l ,507 12,795
272,296 1/ 3 l,874 2/ 369,304
16,830 2,373
2,569 2,439 2,4ol
24,325 31,677 1/ 36,251
5,701 5,428 5, 62
15,380 l', 914 17,698
23,894 24, 55 25,724
392 507' 549
.19,036 21,6914 21,910
443 433 408o
221,949 285,556 3/ 30C,382
17,768 20,3-2 10,062
5/ 19,700 5/ 16,)90 17,212
16,250 15,'33 15,263
1,296 1,447 1,287
8,243 8,941 ,637
700,768 g8S, ;' 873, h61
756,376 95,311 29
756,4o6 951.311 929,6i6


1/ Includes estimate for the Sudetenland. 2/ Includes Austri2. -nd the
Sudetenland. J/ New boundaries and, therefore, not strictly comnr-nrble
with previous years. 4/ Winter wheat only. 5/ Estimated.


- 22 -








- 23 -


Changes in tables accompanying wheat charts in Wheat Situation for
August 26, 1939 and in Agricultural Outlook Charts 1940
(Revised figures are underlined)

Page in:-
Aug. :
Wheat : Chart
Situa-: Book
tion :


1 Revised table on


11
1939 I/
1939 _/
1939
Footnote


page 19, this issue.


I?


" 20, "
64,595 11.4 739,445
18,422 10.2 188,735
19 I7/ 77 96
4/ Indicated October 1.


10 1939 73 5/ 127 --- 200
Footnote / Indicated October 1.
11 199 18 5/ 34 --- 52
Footnote 5/ Indicated October 1.
13 1936 3/ 279 12.8 3,579
1937 3/ 289 13.3 3,852
1938 3/ 293 15.7 4,588
Fc.otncte 2/ Delete the word Canada.
14 193? 3 -- 64.6 58.5 Blank 23.1
15 19,7 1/ 76.4 24.3
I'2 1/ 76.6 22.3 1711.6
17 1938 1]/ 106,374 370,185 79,347
Footnote F Delete
18 1939 3/ Blank Blank 1,717
19 1934 274 221 143


1935 147 225 105
1937 103(83)4/ 52 59
1938 174(154 4/ 72
1939 2S6(255)4/ 118 213
Fcotnote 4/ ( ) stocks of old wheat
21 Revised table on page 21, this issue.
23 August 1939 51.0 64.6 13.6


53.7


102
68
53
63
67n
only


48 788


38
45
48
7i
in the


583
312(292)4/
392(372
761(7United States.20
United States.


(Liverpool market closed)
1938 106,374 254,286
24 Kansas City
1939 -667 64.6 85.9


St. Louis
1939 68,5
1939 68.6


68.5
69.5


26 Dark N!orthern Spring
1939 77.8 76.2
Hard Amber Durum
1939 73.3 80.1
28 1937 3,839 12.9
1938 3,979 13.8


88.4
81.0


82.7

87.5
80.0


92.5 88.2


94.9
49,449
55,039


90,1
6,578
783


68.5
33.8


NWS-37




UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
IIIU11111111111111 i 11111111111i11111
3 1262 08861 8722


$

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