Wheat situation

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
WASH INGTON


MARCH 24, 1939


T H E W H E A T S I T U A T I O N
INCLUDING RYE


THIS ISSUE HAS BEEN PREPARED WITH PARTICULAR
REFERENCE TO THE REPORT OF THE CROP REPORTING
BOARD OF THE BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL EcoNoMICS ON
PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS FOR 1939. IT BRINGS UP TO
DATE THE 1939 OUTLOOK FOR WHEAT, WHICH WAS ISSUED
LAST OCTOBER BY THE BUREAU IN COOPERATION WITH
FEDERAL AND STATE EXTENSION WORKERS.


ALL
A
ACRES r

80

75

70

65

60

55 -
BUSHELS

15


7
BUSHELS


WHEAT: ACREAGE SEEDED. YIELD PER ACRE.
ND PRODUCTION. UNITED STATES. 1919-39

SEEDED ACREAGE
..


YIELD PER SEEDED ACRE


PRODUCTION


1.000


800


600


1919 19Z1 1923 1925 1927 1929 193! 1933 1935 1937 1939




THE ACREAGE SEEDED TO WHEAT FOR HARVEST IN 1939 IN THE UNITED
STATES IS INDICATED AT 66 MILLION ACRES OR 14 MILLION ACRES LESS THAN
A YEAR EARLIER WHEN SEEDINGS WERE LITTLE BELOW THE RECORD IN 1937. PRO-
DUCTION FROM 1933 TO 1936 WAS GREATLY REDUCED AS THE RESULT OF SMALL
YIELDS PER ACRE CAUSED LARGELY BY DROUGHT AND RUST.


WS-29







WHEAT: WORLD SUPPLY AND PRICE. 1923 TO DATE*


SUPPLY -
(BUSHELS)
(MILLIONS) --

4,800

4.600 --e

4.400 -I

4.200 I-

4,000 -

3.800

3.600 j
1923-24


PRICE
(CENTS PER
-- --PPly -4.- ..BUSHEL)

120

1-- 110
-

100

- -^ \--------- 90
/_ --- ------ loo

80


-World price t -70

60
'26-27 '29-30 '32-33 '35-36 '38-39


*YEAR BEGINNING JULY A PRELIMINARY
A AVERAGE BRITISH PARCELS DEFLATED BY STATIST INDEX (1910-14=100)


U S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


NEG 20691 C BUREAU OFAGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE I


WHEAT: SPREAD BETWEEN PRICE AT KANSAS CITY AND LIVERPOOL,
AND U.S. SUPPLIES FOR EXPORT AND CARRYOVER, 1923 TO DATE
CENTS PER [T ......r. .. .. ... -- --
BUSHEL SPREAD BETWEEN KANSAS CITY
20 AND LIVERPOOL
LIVERPOOL
PARCELS
-20 .. ...... .... No, 2 Hard Winter
-40

BUSHELS
(MILLIONS) U.S. SUPPLIES FOR EXPORT .. -
AND CARRYOVER'
7Carryover
40Net exports
40 / or imports
300

200

100

o ..... .. .


1923-24 '25-26


U S DEPARTMENT OF AGR N.LTUR I


'27-28 2930 31-32 '33 -34 '35-36 '37-38
Y A A BPE NN NG URY
CT1ON l l f ,>CM1l T!C l. '1A ON *PRFI'Li MiNARY


NEG. 34440 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE 2
WORLD WHEAT SUPPLIES FOR THE 1938-39 YEAR ARE THE LARGEST ON RECORD AND PRICES
HAVE DECLINED TO VERY LOW LEVELS. EXPORTABLE SUPPLIES IN THE UNITED STATES ARE ALSO
LARGE. THE OPERATION OF THE WHEAT EXPORT AND LOAN PROGRAMS HAVE HELD WHEAT PRICES IN
THE UNITED STATES CONSIDERABLY HIGHER RELATIVE TO WORLD PRICES THAN THEY WOULD OZHER-
WISE HAVE BEEN.






W329 -3-


-- m--- - -
THE WHEAT SITUATI 0 N
Including ............

Summary

If spring wheat growers seed the acreage indicated in the prosppctive-

plantings report, and if average yields are obtPined, this year's spring

wheat crop including duruzm will total about 200 million bushels. This,

together with the winter wheat crap indicated as of December 1 at about 495

million bushels, would mean a total wheat crop of approximately 695 million

bushels in the United States this year, the Bureau of Agriculturnl Economics

points out.

A crop of 685 million bushels would be about equal to the 10-year

(1928-37) average domestic disappearance and approximately 25 million bushels

less than the estimated domestic disappearance for the current season. The

carry-over of wheat in the United States on July 1, 1939, on the basis of

present prospects is expected to be approximately 275 million bushels. A

production no greater than domestic disappearance for the yeer beginning

July 1, 1939, would reduce this large carry-ever at the end of the season

by approximately the amount of our exports.

While prospective spring wheat production has been interpreted in

terms of average yields in order to summarize the situation, such an inter-

pretation must not be considered as an estimate, the Bureau said. The

Crop Reporting Board will indicate a probable range in spring wheat produc-

tion in its report on June 9 and will issue its first estimate on July 10.

Weather conditions to date indicate some slight improvement in

prospects for winter wheat since December 1. February precipitation was

above normal in most parts of the country excepting California -nd the South-

west. This relieved, at least temporarily, the shortage of surface moisture


- 3 -






*,S-29 -

in much of the Great Plains area which was a potential limiting factor in

the late fall and early winter months. Insect injury to the 1939 crop is ex-

pected to be somewhat above average, although about the same as last year.

There is an a'cuniance of grasshopper eggs over a wide area, but the possible

damage will depend upon weather conditions. A report as of April 1 on yield

per seeded acre and indicated production of winter wheat will be released by

the Crop Reporting Board April 10.

The winter wheat acreage seeded in 20 foreign countries, for which

estimates have been received, indicate an increase of 2 million acres or 2

percent. The increase for 14 European countries reporting was one percent.

The effect of this increase over last year in European sown acreage, however,

may be offset by heavy winterkilling, poor germination, and poor yield on

reseeded acres. Conditions in Europe to date have been variable but approxi-

mate those of a year -.go, when they were about average. During the last

6 weeks of the growing season of 1938, however, exceptionally favorable

growing conditions resulted in record crops in most of the European countries.

If only average conditions prevail from now on, thQ 1939 wheat crop in Europe

is expected to be smaller th-tn that of 1938.

Any increase in purchases by Europe-in countries for the purpose of

building up reserve stocks, or a general increase in commodity price levels,

would tend to offset any decline in prices due to larger supplies in the

193-1"40 season. The oper-tion of the export and loan programs has held wheat

prices in the United States considerably higher relative to world prices than

they otherwise would have been. The continuation of these programs and

prospects for smaller domestic production would be expected to maintain this

favorable price relationship.






W5-: 5-

WKirld w'-.-.t -.r'du1:tion l/ in 5i7), estimated at 5)3 million bushels,

gws the lar-e-t in history, and the carry-over in Jul, 1939 is Pxpected tr

* more than dou'ile the ? rn5-million bushel carry-over of July 193'. Total

world net -:.-.-rts are estimated at a't-:t f.O million b'i-h1ls while supplies

in ewportir.- countries in excess of re-.uirements are estimating at -'*ut

9150 million b\.'.rls.

:c-.stic disappearance of wheat in the United States in 1917-39 is now

estimat-:i at about 710 million bushels. E-.r-rts of wheat incluiin-- flour are

e-nected to aroprcximate 100 million bushels. Loan wheat to which the

C."nL-riity CreyitO'r-rration takes title at the maturity of the loan will be

purchased ',.y the FS3C 'nd become part of the stocks available for e:pncrt,

but sales of such wheat will probably not be included with exports to any

significant extent b':-fore June 30, the end. f the current season.

Char..-es in domestic wheat prices in the next month or twe are

expected to depend larf-ely upon how Argentina markets its large surplus,

1939 -rerp prosprcts, and political developments in Europe. Thus far this

season Argentina has shown no signs of willingness to dump wheat in

world markets, although the crop is the second largest in history.

The accumulation of large stocks of wheat in Argentine ports with prospects

-f increased offerings from that country, together with large supplies

in other e.nortir.g countries, however, has depressed oroort prices.





I/ All references to world production and stocks in this report exclude
Soviet 1Russia and China except where noted.






WS5-29


- 6-


S.- A2 C'TLOCK FOR 1939-40

-AC r--OUtD 2/.- The acreage seeded to wheat for harvest
in 1937 ir the United States, at 81 million acres, was the
largest : t-e -istory of the country; in 1973 it was cnly
abou,.t cr-" T 'n acres less. ie previous record was 77
million acre-s .,a 1919. By 1924, the acreage declined to
56 million acres, out by 1928 it had risen again to 71
million. During the 1929-33 period it remained rather
constant at Pro'nd 67 million acres. For the 1934 crop,
r-eded acr: -e 'as reduced to 64 -illion acres, but the
r.xt y-ar it was increased again .o 69 million, and for the
IS '6 crop was raised to 7h million acres (cover pri ,e-. and
table 9)

The acreage seeded to spring wheat has fluctuated
widely in recent years largely as the result of variable
weather conditions at seeding time. In 1934 it was only
19 million acres while in 1936 and 1937 it was 24 and 23
million acres, respectively (table 10). The 1926-36
average was 22 million acres.

Little chance occurred in winter wheat acreage seeded
for harvest in the years 1929-34, when it averaged about 44-1/2
million acres. Scc in-s for the next three crops, however,
,were increased, and those for the 1937 and 1939 harvests, at
58 and 56 million acres, respectively, were the largest in
history. The acre-fe -:eedcd to winter wheat for the 1939
crop is indicated at 46 million acres.

Acreage and production in the United States materially s.m-11-er

On the basis of the March 1 reports from farmers '/ regarding their
acre- 'e plans for the 1939 season, an area of 19.5 million acres is now
indicated for se-dinr-- to spring whe-.t. This acreage would be about 17 per-
cent less than the actual seedings in 1938, 13 percent below the 10-year
(1929-38) average of 22.4 million acres, and the smallest seeded in 14 years,
with the exception of 1934.

The total spring wheat createe indicated for 1939 includes 3,545,000
acres of durum wheat and 15,960,000 acres of other spring wheat. In those
areas -where both are grown, the durum wheat acreage is being reduced some-
what less than other spring wheat acreage. Comparing the prospective acreage
for 1939 with last year's see iins, the durum wheat acreage represents a
decrease of 8 percent while other spring wheat shows a reduction of about 19
percent. The prospective durum wheat acreng- is only about 3 percent below
the acr,-g,:- seeded during the 1929-38 period, but the probable seedings of
other spring wh.-at are 15 percent below the average for this period.
2/ See also b-k.--round statements on pages 11 and 15
J The March reports on "Intentions" appe-ir to provide a fairly accurate
picture of the plans of farmT,-rs at this time and show the changes that may be
expected in areas where plans are not upset by subsequent weather conditions,
ch:i-nes in prices, or other conditions which cannot be foreseen.






-7-


A r-.'.-tion from last year's seinr.:-s is indicated for all of thc
important prir.-- wh:tt growir..n States. T'r.e indic:nted de-r-.-me in "., wheat
other than durum for the four northern Great Plains States is ig percent,
for the States in the Pacific Northwest 27 percent, and for the States of
Color, 1, Nebraska and *,--,"inig 32 percent. East of the "ississippi, in the
less imrcrt'_.nt srri.nr wheat area, the spring wheat acre n- is e'-.ected to
nr.cr_:'ase slightly although most States show no chrnqe from last year.

Table 11 sh-ws the seeded acreage of .-rring wheat in recent years by
areas, and table 10 shows the acreage, yield per acre, and rrotduction of
durum and other spring wheat beginning with 1926.

If growers seed to spring wheat the acrenae indicated in the pro.-.'ctive-
plantings report (19.5 million acres), and if the 20-year (1919-39) aver:.".-e
yields are obtained (10.1 bushels), this year's spring wheat crop inel.lirg
durum will be about 200 million bushels. A winter wheat production of 4g5
million 'ush'ls was indicated in December, based on the past relatinn: hip
between December 1 condition and yield per seeded acre, with some allowance
for the probable effect of weather conditions during last summer and fall.
Adding these two figures would indicate a production of about 685 million
bushels of all wheat.

Weather conditions to date indicate somp slight improvement in
prospects for winter wheat since December 1. February precipitation was -aove
normal in most parts of the country excepting California and the Southwest.
This relieved, at least temporarily, the shortage of surface moisture in
much of the Great Plains area which was a limiting factor in the late fall
and early winter months. Although still below average, winter wheat conii-
tions have shown some improvement recently in much of this area. Winter
weather conditions have been generally fa-orable in the Pacific Northwest,
and near drought conditions in parts of California were largely relieved
by rains early in March. East of the Mississippi River, the crop continues
in mostly good to fair condition.


An open a.nd abnormally warm winter has resulted in little winter-
kill as yet although there ha.s been some loss from dust storms and blowing
out in parts of Oklahoma and Kansas. Acree.-- loss is likely to be above
average in parts of the Plains area resulting lar-gely from the shortage of
moisture at seeking time and later. Some of last fall's seedir.t- ma~n be
plowed up by farmers to comply with acren.e allotments.


The above indicated production ma..kes allowance for aver.n,_e insect
dprmaaFe. Insect injury to the 1939 crop is expected to bbe somewhat above
average, although about the same as last year. There is an abundance cf
grasshopper e,;gs over a wide area, but the possible d-minar will depend upon
weather conditions. The control campaign in 1938 prevented about two-
thirds of the grasshopper damage in prospect last year and pl-ns are being
made for still more effective control operations in 1939.


WS-29






WS-29


CF-rr,y-ver next July about 275 million: prospective supplies reduced

A production of 67-5 million bushels would be about equal to the
1 -year (12.--37) avra:P domestic disappearance and approximately 25
million bushels less than the estimated domestic disappearance for the
year beginnin.- July 1, 1938.

The carry-over of wheat in the United States on July 1, 1939, on
the basis of present prospects 4/, is expected to be approximately 275
million bushels. A production no ..-reater than domestic disappearance for
the year beginning July 1, 1939, would reduce this large carry-cver by the
end of the season by approximately the amount rf our experts. A smaller
crop would result in a greater reduction in domestic supplies.

The reduction in acreage in the United States has been made at a
time when expert prospects were very unfavorable. In fact, the largest
world wheat crop in history has made it necessary for our Government to
assist exports in 1938-3S in order to maintain our share of the export
m.-rket. The prospective record world carry-over in July 1939 is expected
to ie more than double the 595 million-bushel world carry-over July 19lS.
There are no indications at present that the total acreage for other coun-
tries will be reduced. If rr. auction in the United States turns out to be
a,:.roximately 685 million bushels, and if there is no reduction in acreage
in the rest of the world, averag-e yields per acre in other countries would
result in a world production in excess of the likely disappearance in 1939-40.

Prospects are for large world crop in 1939, but smaller than in 1938

Winter wheat acreage seeded for harvest in 1939 in the 21 countries
reporting to date, shows a decre-se of about 5 percent as compared with
estimates for the same countries in 1938 (table 1).

Reports from 14 European countries show an increase of about 1
percent, compared with acr-.r:e sown for harvest last year. Seedings of
winter wheat in these countries last year represented about 77 percent :f
the total European wheat acre~'c harvested. Most of the indicated increase
is in ? l.-aria, Italy, Germany, Portugal and Yugoslavia. These in-re-ses
were, however, largely offset by decreased seedins in England and Wales,
France, and Rumania.


4/ See text and table, priu 16.








S 1" I. -'.i t ...(


o~. A~ ~ ~. ~
'' *1


- __Item__ 1 I e S
: 1", .,
arCes Iore8 ^r L^


. .. .t.
.ted Stte . . ...

tal (2) . . .
Sr m .. . ....... .
S ia ... . . .
echoslovakia . .:
.-and and T es . :
' "- .c- e '/ ................... :


Ita'ly ... ......................:



Port: -1 ................ .....:
umana a .....................:
Y"-oslavia ................... .:
Vital (14) ................ :
Indi a !j .. ............... .....
-'pt .. ...................... :
Algeria ...... .................
Morocco .......................
Tunisia .......................
tal (21) ................


7_1 -_

2,sL5 2.74 C ,
1, 17 ,' 27 1
1,7 2 l,- 7, ;
12,772 12,-r 12,2Uq
4,579 4, 5^,4 4,l74
111 .77
12, 2 12,19 12, 5
170 17 IS
379 357 7' l
3,7'7 3,?il ,"2,
1,21) 1,26 1 *1,^'
7,9 R 8,799 8
r, *-.. 5 22=4 /
5-,2 9 5I2 4 2. ,
12, 2,403 '2, 2
1,421 1,470 1,503
4,311 4,161 1/4, 40o
027 2,9r 1/2, r^
2 429 1,-4,4 2,125
1- 1, ; l^? 1 .:, -V, -


ij Estimate of the Paris office of the Department of Agriculture.
2/ "'.17 iL arndaries. Fi.-ure for 1137 is an estimate based on the per-
centar-e relatio:.s?., o between the old boundary acre,:--e in 1937 and
1938.
I Plantings to January 1.
4Exc1'. -.t- A-stria.
I Estimate of the Belgrade office of the Department of A culture.
,'.arch estimates.


Prospects for the outturn in Europe u'e, of course, largely
dependent on weather conditions for the rest of the .-row'.- season.
Conditions to date have been variable but aomroximate the abo- t averi--e
conditions of a year a-o. uar>--.- the last weeks of the 1' ..--:'i-.r
season, however, excetio.. -11y favor"-: e ,r :.-. co: tions resulted in
record crops in most of the E.'r.-rean countries. If only average con-
ditions prevail from now on, ther,:'ore, the 19 3 wheat crop i 1. Oe
is exy-ected to be smaller than that of I0J-.


'-.






WS-2P


Winter kill has been abnormally high in some countries as was
mentioned in a previous report. in France, it is estimated that from
20 to 25 percent of the winter -iheat seedings were destr.y.ed. Most of
the area has '*-- roseoded to spring heat, but a smaller crop than that
of c193 is to be ex ected. Damage was also he'vy in Bcl'lum, and some
datmTe has te .en r rt In western Ge',i y;-, though the condition of the
crown on the whole is r~: rted to be satisfactory and about the same as a
year ago. A smal! -r o:tturn than last years s-ems probable in these coun-
tries. The crop in Czechoslovakia is reported to be in satisfactory
condition. The condition of winter -,heat in most of Italy is very g:-od
and prospects for the .7. crop are promise -. In S'',in the crop is
expected to except. Ihat of 193-S. The deccrased acr: oe reported in En-glrn.d
and Wles re'sulte from unfavorable weather during the fall and winter
months. Production this :.-ar might be expected to fall considerably below
that of la'vt year.

The Belgrade office of the U. S. Department of Agriculture reports
the condition of fall sown -wheat, which constitutes about 9l5 percent of
all wheat in the Danube Basin, as favorable. Though acreage seeded in the.
Danubian countries is indicated to be about 1 percent above that of last
year prospects are for a 1539 harvest .-:.maller than the record crcp of 1938.
Moisture conditions to date are reported as rdequi.tte but not as favorable
as at the same time a year ago.

The total acreage sown to all winter grains for harvest in 1939,
in Soviet Russia, is approximately 2 percent below that of 1079. It is
estimated that winter kill has been above average, especially in the central
part of the country. At the begin-ing of the 1938 fall sowin. season the
soil was in a very dry condition and field -Tork was handicapped. Poor
preparation of the soil is reported.to have been more general than is usual.
Preparations for the spring sowing campaign are l-g somewhat behind
those of last year at the same date.

The acreage sown in French North Africa is estimated to be somewhat
larger than the small acreage of last yenr. C-nditions have been favorable
and a good crop is in prospect.

The second estimate of -,heat seedings in India show very little
ch..,ge, compared with the similar estimate for last year. The c-nditin
of the crop is now reported to be fairly good.

The Shanghai office of the Dr-nartment of Agriculture reports that
pro:-.r--,cts for the 1939 '.heat crop in the Orient point to an increase of
about 10 percent as compared with the small yield of 1938. Efforts of the
Chinese Government to increase vrheat production in the Province:s under
their administration are expected to result in incra ,-nes in those areas.
Increased production is also forecast in other areas of Chin., The
present condition of the crop is indicated to be favorable. No substantial
increase in acreage is estimated for Japan but a larger outturn is expected
than in 1938, when the yield was below average.








Domestic wheat ^i.ces Snt 1 ..akete cto conti ne "oo ~ eo I :

1. ncr.ase in rcases Euroean countries for the r irTe h:
bll un rsrve stc, general increase in nomnoity Crice levels
would tendi to offset any decline in prices due to lar.-,Kr su 11.iei the

'7het oricev in ".ted States markets considerably Uigher relative t world
richess t.han they would other-ise have been (fig. 2)f. r e oti .u"ion .f
these o 'ams *1 nros: -ts for smaller domestic production eould i e ex-
pected to n'aintain this favorable price relationship. j

7". L. DT 7S -- 1 -"A'TC" I' 1 :'4"7 -' -

'- "D-?:tal *orld. -ir'lies of '-heat increased sharply
f'ro 1 to 107', ir:--.1ly as a result of incresi-" acre .
Fro: 1 to 1~{r'" world sup-lies declined, follo'.7i>.-- niccess-
Lve s rs of small production and incre so c world de~ nd. In
I r '':orld supplies, estimated at i4,43 million busheIs, ,"ere
'1: million bushels large-r thaIn in 1''I Increased Tor duact ion
in 1 58 resulted in total su lies on a cmaonrab L 'basis of
5,1 1 million bnshels, or Pn increase in 1 year of about 7
million buh els.

Total Tworld shinments of whe:t4 ave:--- -ed 751 million
:.1 els for the 5 years, 1'.-3-27, reached n peak of ?13
million bushels in the year beginning July 1, 1 t28, then de-
clined sharply, largely is a result of measures taken ?
importi:.n countries to reduce the use of foreign -,heat. F.,r
the yer be: nnin g July 1, 1937, net imports totaled 4c7
million bushels, and for the current season they are fore-
cast at 73 million bushels.

Eur"-.- the 1924-33 period, ,lhen world r -lies of
';'heat were increasi-.i, '7orld prices were declini'..-:; prices
reached the low point as supplies reached the high. The
sharp decline in prices after 1929 was due largely to the
general decline in industrial activity and commodity prices.
5r-" the sprir. of 1933 to the summer of 1937, -7orld ':heatt
prices s moved steadily up'l-ard, reflecting the .70orld-wide
recovery in commodity :.rice levels, curre:".': depreciation,
four successive below-avertr.-_' harvests in .-rth America,
and the 1935-3 short Southern Hemisphere crop. With little
:a.:.-e in the world wheat supiply or in the zholes'ale i "ce
level, the world price for the 1937 crop remained practically
z.Y'-.nged from that of a year e rlier. Lar.--c .,:.. lies in 19-'
t'-:ether with the -:orld business recession, resulted in a sharp
decline of prices.

5/ ;r'-wers cooperati-~-- with the Ar7icultural A.d-:.tment nreo r-r. 'ill
receive *b-:*.t .-? cents per bushel on the normal yield of their 1] otn nts.






7B-29


Torld wheat ,3rrr-o,.ver 1;: l-i- 1:LP .L re.

The estimated orlr'. heat supply and prospectve distribution for the year
bf_.--ir.-ir. July 1, 1938, conmrred -:ith that of 1937 is shon, in table 2. This
is practically unchar. e fro..i t~e table published in the issue of a month ago.
As previously pointed c:.t t.- roapcctive disap Ie,.rna-. 'e and carry-over figures
-re ,nly indica Aions. It :;oJ. aopnear that the disap ea:ar.nce in several countries
:ill be relatively heavy;. rovere, a -:.:'ent ovcr-estimates in official produc-
ion estimates involve a :r c statistical dica-pearance. Even with a large pros-
tctive disappearance the Tvo0l carry-over next July will probably be of record
sie. l 12 -:ho-s wvorlO :at )rod action for the rast 4 ye.;rs.


;j T- .. -at Sit- ution. February 23, 1939, table 16 shows the estimated world
supply and distribution beginning -ith 1922.


Table 2.- Estimated -:orld s:.': ly and prospective distribution, year
beginning, July 1, 1938, compared with 1937

Itm ,-,-.r bc-in.in uZl- ..
l es: 1'. estimates : 19_. i'._iati2n_____
M.u1' .. l'.:.- l s y.j i ,.. b- ,--h

or.'"-over July 1 iJ .... ...: 519 595
Production ij .................... 3, 8 )5
Total supply...............: 4,374 5,134
Net exports from Soviet Russia..: 39 ] 37
Total of above............. : 4,413 5,171
Dis.n pearance................... : 3,818 ,920
3arry-over June 30 ..............: 595 1,251

S-.x-luding stocks and production in Soviet Russia and China, and excludes 20 mil-
lion bushels new? ;-:heat in commercial and merchant mill stocks.


-rPl.o sunTlies in Xo.ex i- co i ntris r ..- xcod i.r.rts

Politi cl developments ani nw,' crop projects durin," the spring period are
factors whi. y m-. ify the T.u'rpen wheo t trade situation.Until further evidence
is available, ho-mever, the Decemberr forecast of imports of about 42S million
Lushcls 1; Eutr_(pan net ip-iort in countries and the 7--bruary estimate of 135 mil-
lion u.s.-.ls by non-Eur,-poar. countries or a total of 563 million bushels is bein,-
mnaintained. Forecasted imr ort by European countries are shown in tatre 14.
SrZ.11 dornwrard rc visions r m. dc i-i tc 1 3S-39 import figures for "rie-c and
-zenhoslov:akia, *'1hic. arc about olf: ant ov a- ap-,ard r,'visicn in the im-irrt figure
for the :>th .... no s.

TL11le 3 sho-::;- etim ted : ..lies av' il' bli for export, after ddi --ti.n:- do-
mBntic rmq -ir:::.ents an]. carry-ov r, and forec:asted not exports for the current
s .- ron by the :. ort:t 1 us p roducing country s compared with actual net ex-
ports for Tth ea>r a .l-. .n Jul 1, 937.


-12-









U-;: l 3.- .t exports, .r "r -..i. Jul 1 2, fore >'a0


-- '' "19r T ___. v. Ju_ J.
'"-untry : net Availble for : oreasted .et



Unit Stat .. l: 104 2/ 250 /
C -L-.-" ................ : 89 5l
Ar,-: .tina...............: 70 225 95
Austr li. ......... ... .: 124 80 ;.) .
Danube contries........ : 55 110 75
Soviet R-..'sia...........: 37 37
Bnlr.-.ci... item U/ ....... : 13 16
--t al )......: 494 952 563
J/ -ot-l -lies less domestic rci.quirements and car'ry-over.
?J Loan stocks not inducted. 3] See text.
4/ "Other" countries and any necessary balancing bet-een shipments and receipts
resulti-.:- from differences in time and accounting. Computed as estimated total
not i-' rts less -:.:--rrts accounted for.
5/ T7-.. net --: orts, computed as net imports into TEuropean deficit countries plus
.*.. n.r.ts to non-E ,-rpea'. countries.

Probatle exports from the M .ir, .rt.< for the year beginning July 1, 1938,
are expected to ':rirr.oximate 100 million bushels. Loan wheat to which the Cor-,-.iity
-r-.iLt Corroration takes title at "ih maturity of the loan V/ will be pur hech i by
'i, F'leral 'Trrplus Commodities Corporation and become part of the stocks available
for export j but sales of such wheat will probably not be inclu.led with .-.- 'irts to
Ar.-r ci-n.ificant extent before June 30, the e:i. of the current season.

Actual exports of wheat, incl'.:i"-- flour in trrms of wheat from the United
S'.ates Jul"- 1, 1938 to March 18, 1939 totaled about 77 million bushels, and .xr.rt
siles amo,.nted to .2 -rillion bushels, ;7 million bushels of which were nc.isted by
the Fed.eral export pro-ram.

J Proiu2ers have the opportunity, between April 1 and June 15, 1939, of re'c- c.Mi
.ny led-ei or mort.-acd wheat held unidr the loan pror-ra,'. "Wheat whi.- is not re-
ieem,-; by the maturity dates, and on which prc.-_:ers have not obtained the exten-
sion of loan permitted in certain areas, will become the property of the C.omol.ity
Credit Corr.or. tion.. As of M-rch 8, 1939, 82 million bushels of wheat were plh--.
under loan r..re.':nti'..: 23 million bushels of wheat stored on the farm, which lor:.-.
-:-ture on May 31, 1939, ,-n 59 million bushels of wheat stored in public -rcin ele-
vators, which loans mature 7 months from their respective dates.

/ Ex-'.t for rel'.tiv-l-r wmall amounts which will be used for domestic relief '.r-
poses. In .p.e-ial cases where the wheat purch *:.-. from the Co-modi ty Credit Jsr-
ooration is of typ: r-.rie. for domestic milli -.-, or is of low qualit:., su<. wheat
7ill be e-:-han,-ed for other wheat which is suitable for *-r:;.t.







WS-29


rq.orts from the Dr.:'&c r.-in court riM.L Pol- r.rth-'-r:. Africa Lnd Tdrkcy
move into trade with little re.:-ri to other coimnetition eenause of trade and barter
arrangements. A largc part of the crxortable surplus, estinted at about 110 mil-
lion bushels, will be c ort-d from the _-.ubian countries, as will also the sur-
plus of about 2" million bu-.'s, the total for Pc.la. ncthern Africa and Tur-
key. Ex crts from In`ii ha-e tCtaled about 10 million: bush ls, which were exported
in July-tLr-u_." So te; .e:. 7i ~.ifica:nt additional exports from India are not ex-
pected 1-ause the crop -:hih in new being harvested is re-ncrted to be poor. Net
exc-'orts from Soviet Russia are expected to total about 37 million bushels.

If expric from the U.-ited States total bout 100 million bushels, those
from the Danutbi'. countries ab-ut 75 million burhels, Soviet Russia about 37 mil-
lio bushels, 1 rosective takings by deficit countries woulC, appear to leave only
about 350 million bushels for other countries. Of this, C:.adn_ might supply btout
160 million bushels, A:- -.ti--- 95 million bushels, and Au^: li.: 80 million
.-:..els. This represents an increase fr-m the Bureau's earlier estimate for
3:.L--":..: a decrease for Argentina. Exports from the latter country have been
smaller than expected.

Table 13 shows the estimated -"heat surplus for export or carry-over on
M..nrch 1, 1939, for Car.ns>, Argentina, a-.1 Australia, as well as United Kingdom
Port stocks and stocks afloat. These total 514 million bushels compared with 276
million bushels a year ago, and 326 million bushels in 1937. -:e estimate for
Canada is 169 million bushels, for Argentina 210 million bushels ani for Australia
77 million- bushJIs. Tables 14 to 17 show the current international -wheat move-
ment -ith cr:u'a:isons.


Wheat rice- in world mrrk_.- lowQ:er

Wheat prices in important foreign markets declined during the past month.
While Argentina thus far has sho.-ved no signs of willingness to dump wheat in world
markets, although the crop in that country is the second larr st in history, the
ac-. -ulation of large stocks' of wheat in its ports with prosTrects of increased
offeri-. fr--.. that country, together with large supplies in other e::porting coun-
tries, Las depressed export prices in recent weeks (table 4). Reported sales of
large quantities of Argentine wheat to Germany on a barter basis for GC:rran rail-
*::ay equipment and other goods, ho-;ever, tended to relieve a part of the pressure
of the heavy stocks. A possible contri'-.iting factor to "e:pk.r prices the middle
of March was a reduction of about 3, cents per buchel in ocean freight rates from
Argentina to _European mn rkets, which may have resulted temporarily in lo- -r quota-
tionson Argentine ".h-t at Liverpool, cad this in turn may have weakened the market
for other offerings.

Cr: .n :es in world wheat prices in the next month or t'wio are expected to de-
pend lar-.ly upon ho-: Argentina markets its large supplies upon 1939 crop prospects,
nl o: political developments in Europe.


-14







Tai1e I .- Fri:'es of imn rted whe at t. Lver cl

-' 1 ] .7. t

(Friday : (G ) : :. 3 TT S. :Ar :t i



ov. 4 2/ 4.o 2.-.4 67.7 j/ -. s <.4 --
10 J < 69.7 63.8 i/ 6 7 ..7
1 : -- 72.0 61.0 -7- --
2 & -' 7 -- 5. -.7 --.
: -. 2 2/ 5.2 76.0 62.S 65..
S76. 64. 4 .


K) ::f.o 7 6.5 --- 63;. .4
l^-I
J3,. 66.5 76.0 .-- 8 6b.9
13 : 6.8 7'.9 --- e.1 7.1
20 : 6.6 75.3 --- 2'. 73-9 57.
27 67.9 76.3 --- 7-. .*7-
Feb. 3 : .7 76.0 --- 63.6 ".5
10 : '.1 7.3 --- 67. 4
17 : 7.7 76.2 62.2 2.
24 75.5 --- .1 .9
Mar. 3 -- .- 60. 6. 5 -
10 74.8 -- 6' 61 .
17 73.1 -- 57. 59.6

1/ Empire wheat Q .-lifying for Imerial Preference was ..-.'ted from duty
(apprc::1:r. cti-. 6 cents F.-r .".zr:1) prior to January 1, 19- mdcer Ottawa
Agreements of ,ovember 1932.
-2 "c. 2 Yellow EH-,: Winter. / ..russo. / .o. 2 Dark .a:-. inter.




-.?X.r":,-->.- The carry-over of v:h,.-.t in the United States for the 5
years 1924-2g av rr ,-.- about 115 million bushels. Stocks -h-hh
T* wn to ac--'. :..ate in 19', reached the. record peak of tout 975
million in 1933. F- .. small wheat crop:, however, rcul:ed sto .
on a -n-.- -trabe basis to about 1C million Tbuhels ": Jy 1, 137.
-... domestic disapr~earance durin- the 10 v ars 192S-37 av rn --d
a- uct 61, il ion -..els.

h*,'It exports from the Uni-.;d States d n1 d st ca d il'v aft r
the 7World ",., .. i. 1934-36 irrports of m.iillin- and f eed w-h'ats ,ere
nee;-.:- r.- ), -" .. 2 of small United Svtat crops of' :rr r r .. .- s.nd
i'.r.m wheat aw.' snort feed Trin .- 1:lies The 137 7he:,t crop s
~r"*-.:ly in exes of domes -tic n -s and about 10) million Ius! Is
were exnort.l -mder conrlitions of r ':ced cr- tition be-'.- ..:e o -..








-'.s in Canada and Argentina. In 1933 another lar-:e crop was
produced, and. export have been the most difficult since 1931
because of large crops in other ortinz countries and in many
of the ismorting countries.

ro.e- tic wheat prices from the spring of 1933 to thnt of
137 we-re unusually hi.. in relation to world m'.rket prices, be-
cause of four small domestic crops caused lar.-ly by abr.orrnally
1ow: yields per csre. During the year beginnir.-: July 1936 both
world and d-loestic prices advanced sharply as a resJt of in-
creaised i and and the a-.llest supplies in recent y'-,.:s. Prices
received producers for the 1936-37 season ave:-..d 103 cents,
and the following year, with increased supplies, slo7 Euroreayn
demand and a falling price level, they averaged 96 cents. Prices
have been deoresscd during the current season be i.:-.ing July 1,
li93, because of lar-: domestic and world supplies of wheact.


Domestic_ c :- ... rr. now vi :.-.icated. norc han Q f ;i1Ln bushels

"-ble 5 shows estimated United States wheat cu-vlies and prospective dis-
tribution for the year begin--i.i: July 1, 1938, comprr.rcd w-ith 1937. *1 A slightly
larger disapeor.rance than last season now appears to be indicated for the current
season. Thile seed requirements have been reduced by a smaller acreage, a slight
increase in domestic flour consumption and a substantial increase in the cu.antity
of wheat used for feed compared with last year is no;w exnocted.

Probable ex-ports are consorvativel:- placed at 100 million buc'. -ls. Ex-
ports are expected to be somewhat larger than cr-c'ted earlier because loan wheat
to which the Commodity Credit Corporation takes title at the maturi'" of the loan
will be purchased by the Federal Surplus Commodities Corp,.r:_..tion and become part
of the stocks available for export 10/ accordi.r.: to an announcement made March 14.


9j Estimated supplies and distribution total and by classes for a n:u.mcr of years
are ..-. i. i"The T.eat Situation", February 23, 1939, 1:...s 18, 19.
l01 See pa-. 13.


Table 5.- Estimated United States wheat supply and prospective
distrib.ition, ;- -.:'s beginning July 1, 193S, compared with 1937

Item Y.ar -in: J.. 1,-
: !..i. bLu. Mil. bu.

Carr.y-,ver, July 1 (c-ld wheat ..........; 83 2j 153
Pr' actionn ............................: 6 .
total supply.......... 959 1
Di .'.. '.r.ane ..........................-: c 7 710
N t x.- rto 1/..........................: 104 100
,'irry-over June 30....: 153 274
jInd1 -771 flour in tern" of wheat.
/ At.ly 1 '.53,"') but roundc. to 153 so that totr.l supplies would rcund to
1,0, in::tead of 1,085 because production was 930,801,000 bu -.-Is.


71S-29







- 17 -


.'.-it -rices in unitedd States markets remain steady

Domestic prices continued to be su.-r rted '' the G vernment e.Y rt a~.
loan pro:rb.-s, and by proreccts of a reiluced c,--; in 19.9. Prices in the middle
of March were about unc'..,ned from a month earlier even the ,-h prices ir world
markets declined. F' r the week ended March 17 prices of all classes and *r'-ice
in six domestic markets averaged 7C0 cents per bushel, compared with 7. ce.ts
per bushel for the week ended February 17 (table 7) while in Liverpool dur<.
the same r -ri d the price of Australian declined 7 rents, Ar- rntine Rcsafe 42
cents and Canadian No. 3 Manitoba 3 cents (table 4).

Prices in the United States have been averagin'a above world levels since
last September and in recent months have been considerably hi<' r than .usual
relative to world levels. The December-February price of No. 2 '-:rd Vinter
what at Kansas City averaged 7 cents above Liverpool parcels this season while
the average for the same 3 months was 22 cents below Liverpool a year ago, or a
difference of 29 cents.

It is xrected that domestic prices will continue above world levels and
that they will not be influenced to the same extent by world conditions as they
would be without the export and loan programs.

Table 6.- .verare closing prices of May wheat futures, specified
markets and dates, 1938 and 1959

: ,'i i g : ri :r::l : ru n s : Chicago : K-r:.s : ir:. rc is
Date : 1/ : 1/ : Aires : : City :
: 19l8: 1939: 1938: 1939 : 1938 : 1939 :1938:1939:1938:1939: 1938 : 1::.
: Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct.
Month- :
Jun. :126.3 62.2 113.9 63.3 -- --- 95.5 69.5 94.2 ',.0 105.4 72.5
Feb. :127.7 62.3 112.3 62.4 -- --- 94.1 68.4 92.9 64.6 1:4.8 71.0
Week :
ended-:
Feb. 4:126.7 62.6 112.8 63.2 2/109.6 2/59.4 94.2 69.0 93.2 65.2 105.6 71.8
11:128.4 61.9 114.2 62.4 2/108.9 7/59.5 95.3 C6.0 94.3 %~4.1 106.3 70.6
18:127.1 62.5 111.3 62.5 /106.8 E/59.5 93.2 C(.0 91.9 64.3 103.4 70.5
25:128.3 62.4 111.2 62.2 3/107.3 2/59.5 93.8 68.8 --.4 65.0 104.3 71.3
Mar. 4:125.5 *7 .0 110.7 61.6 316.5 7/59.5 92.3 C .7 89.6 64.7 102.0 71.0
11:120.6 61.2 IC .4 60.0 3/103.7 $/59.5 88.8 z.2 86.0 64.2 97.7 70.3
18:118.5 59.9 104.0 59.6 101.8 2/59.5 87.1 z".7 F- .9 ..8 96.4 ..-.4
Figh 4 :128.4 62.8 114.8 64.1 5/112.0 /59.6 97.4 70.2 96.3 '-.9 107.3 T7.3
Low 4 :118.5 59.9 104.0 59.6 T/101.8 7/58.7 87.1 '7.7 84.9 63.3 96.4 "-&.4


Conversions at noon buying rate of exchange.
March f itures.
April futures.
.jrnury 7 to "..rch 18, 1."-'.9 and corresr.'-nding dates for 19."=.
March, April and May futures.


'"*0_'' I
tl .J~ J






ws-_9


- 16 -


Table 7.-, ighted average c-ch. price, of whe'nrt, specified markets and
dates, 1933 and 1939

:All classes: No. 2 Lo. 1 :No. 2 Hard :No. 2 : Western
:D-i_.e gradess :-Ytd i .ter:Dk.N. Spring:Amber Durum:Acd Winter : WThite
Date :six nm.rkete. ."' ity:.inne e olis:Pinnrt 'olis: St. Louis : Seattle I/

:Cents Cents Cen;2 (ents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents


b.onth -
Jan. :102.4 72.6 102.7
Feb. : 9. 70.6 99.6

ended
Feb. 4 : 99.3 71.5 100.6
11 :19.2 Q9.6 102.6
13 : 97.2 70.0 99.0
25 : 99.2 71.1 99.3
Mar. 4 : 97.5 71.1 96.4
11 : 94.1 71.5 91.6
13 : 90.6 70.5 90.5
High 2/ :105.2 73.3 104.o
Low 2/ : 90.6 69.6 90.5


70.9 127.0
9.2 125.1


70.3
6s.5
63.3
70.6
68.6
69.0
6s.s
71.7
68.3


129.0
124.8
117.0
128.1
129.5
113.3

131.1
113.3


79.7 108.7 72.7 100.2 73.4 3-.9 67.6
78.C 1iO.1 72.3 93.3 73.1 90.0 67.5


79.8 10S.2
77.7 110.1
76.4 107.4
73.1 112.3
79.3 111.6
77.3 104.2
76.0 100.9
-0.4 112.3
76.0 100.9


-72.9
70.8
73.4
73.4
74.1
73.6
71.5
74.3
70.8


oo00.4
100.2
98.2
98.8
96.5
91.2
90.1
101.7
90.1


74.1
73.3
72.2
73.4
73.4
73.4
72.9
74.3
71.9


90.5
90.3
S9.0
90.5
s8.5
86.7
85.7
90.5
- 5.7


66.5
66.8
6s.
69.4
67.9
67.5

68.5
66.5


1/ Weekly -ver-rge of daily cash quotations, basis No. 1 sacked.
2/ January 7 to March 16, 1939, and corresponding dates for 1938.





T- ACR'-AE .'AD CC:;DITIOC OF "E

Winter rye acreage sown in 10 countries reporting (table 8) sho'w.s an
incr-ase of -bout 1 percent for the 1939 harvest compared with the acrer-ge
sown the previous year. A slight decrease is indicated in eight European
countries, but this is more than offset by the increased seedi :gr in
North America.

In Germany, the largest producer, rye acreage was cut to provide
increased acrea.;-s of wheat and barley. The condition of the crop is mostly
satisfactory. Poland and Latvia are the only European countries reporting
increased rye acr.age. In Poland a 1 percent increase iB indicated. The
crop condition is s._mi-.igly satisfactory, but it is expctd t'r.at scme damage
from winterkill may yet appear.







Table 5.-Winter rye rea sown in .-r cified co.ri for
harv,,st in 1937, 1 9

Country -

ted .t ................. : 7,371 6,6 7, 7
". . . . .
rTot. ( 2) ...... ................ ..: t ,

G,-.-: s: -. ovok a I/ . .... 7 I, -'7 l,660 1," -
Frj. .e / ....................... 1 ~ 10,3 i r :-


Lithuo-ir 3 1,250 1, <':
L at '-.:.. ...........................:6 70
Lithu :.i a .........................: 1,250 1,
P 7:le d .. ... ... : '14,24 7 14,57
._............................ I, 052 1 1 2 (.."
. . .

S.-'w -oundaries. Figire for 1937 is ma estimate based on the pcrcent-
age relationship between the old boundary acreage in 1937 crd 1 33.
2/ Planti:.:.. to Jai-..;ary 1.
/ Excludi. Au'-'ia.


Table 9.-United States acren.:- seeded, yield per .:' end
production of all wheat, 1519 to date


: : Yield per :
Year Seeded acr--.ge Y pe
__ : seeded acre :
1,000 acres Bushels

1919 77,440 12.3
1920 : 67,977 12.4
1921 6 7,681 12.1
1922 67,163 12.6
1923 64,510 11. 6
19, : 55,706 15.1
1-1,738 10. 8
1- : 6o,712 13.7
1)27 : ,61 13.3
19 : 71,152 12.9.
192 : 66,. .n 12.3
10 : 67,150 13.2
1931 : 65,, 14. 2
1932 65,913 11. 5
1933 68, -.l
1934: 63,562 .3
1935 69, '7 9.0
19"_ 73,7-.'-
1937 : n,072 10.-
193 79,. 70 11.7
1939 I/ ,678

1/ Preliminary.


Production
l' bushels




7m ,;249

77

'32, 213




4 1,
T" ,39
,-,p!
&'3 '1







- 20 -


Table 10.- Seeded a- e, y.eld per acre, ai.- production, durum, other
spring and all spring wheat, 1926-39

: Durum 1 : either spring : All spring
Year s T :Produc- : : Produ-
Acreage ee Yield Acre:r e Yield Pdu
S r : : : tion : : : tion
;: I,,re su s 00 aere ],b ace B I ,0G
Acres zishels bushels acres Pushels bushels acres Bushels bushels


1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1.38
1939


4,868
5,463
6,855
5,738
4,745
3,959
4,184
3,070
1,928
2,427
3,555
3,214
3,856
3,545


8.7 42,349
14.3 78,059
57.9 5,266
9.5 54,470n
12.0 57,166
5.5 21,069
9.7 40,463
5.4 16,463
3.3 6,353
9.7 23,465
2.3 8,073
8.7 27,971
10.5 40,445


15,240
16,064
15,866
17,135
17,373
16,392
18,358
20,970
17,049
19,716
20,404
20,202
19,659
15,960


10.4
15.5
15.1
10.7
11.3
5.8
12.2
7.6
4.8
7.0
4.8
8.0
10.4


158,257
248,812
240,C41
182,508
195,699
95,209
224,669
158,702
82,077
137,560
98,819
151,881
203,719


20,108
21,527
22,721
22,873
22,118
20,351
22,542
24,040
18,977
22,143
23,959
23,4116
23,515
19,505


10.0
15.2
14.8
10.4
11.4
5.7
I1.8
7.3
4.7
7.3
4.5
8.1
10.4


200,606
326,871
335,307
236,978
252,865
116,278
265,132
175,165
88,430
161,025
106,892
189,852
244,164


i Figures en dc. m apply to three States only Minnesota, North Dakota, and
South Dakota. Ljrum.production in other States is not important and figures are
included with "other spring,".


Table 11.- S&edud ac.. a of spring wheat by areas, average 1929-38,
annual 1935-39

:Averagec: : : : : 1979
Area : 1929- : 1935 : 1936 : 1937 : 1938 : prospective
: 38 : : : : : seedings
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,0CO 1,000 1,000
Spring wheYact other than durum: acres acres acres acres acres acres
Vont.,].C., 3.D., ~rd FIin. : 15,472 ]7,002 16,621 15,916 16,656 13,723
N.sh.,Oreg., and Idaho .....: 1,953 1,310 2,170 2,730 1,809 1,327
Colb., Nebr., and ;ye. ....: 905 1,018 1,251 1,234 894 610
All other States ...........: 395 386 362 322 300 300
Total ...............: 18,725 19,716 20,404 20,202 19,-59 15,960
Durum wheat 1 .............: 3,668 2,427 3,555 3,214 3,856 3,545
Iotal spring .....: 22,393 22,143 23,959 23,416 23,515 19,505


11 Figures for durum represent t hrc St2Lt only !innesota, North Dakota, and
South Dakota. Durur production in ote:cr Sttfes is unimportant and figures are
included with"other pr .rig"twhIat.


"T -29





WS-: 21 -

.',le 12.- i., tieted -roduction f ,wheat in s:ifie, i.


Country : 193 7 '
1 .'. u 1, ,.C') u. I, ,

it-i 5t,9es ...... ... ..... ..: *':6, .1 6, .*'. 75 1 9 9 -
Canada ............. .. .........: 281 ,935 1 ,2 .
Mexic .........................: 10,7 2 b 3.*' ,, 1
Total (3) .1 .-.1 : '',___ __ __

.ur'.-' excl. Dn-ube 3asin (26)2/: 1,274,811 ," 7, 1,1 1, ,37
Ia'u.iu e Basin (4) ............. 301, -8 .,27- 361,4 4 ,
To tal ( ) ....... .. .. .... 7 '
::rth Africa (4) .................: 113,692 95,791 117,117 116,312
-sia t'1 ... ... ....... ........ 53 6,676 65, 8 579, ',1 55, -
Total 43 countries ............: 3,]45,858 3,001,7' ,34, 753 3,$ ?,4
C:uthern Hem is here
-Argentina ...................... 141,462 249,193 184, .:- 319, "
Australia ......................: 144,218 151,390 188,018 14.-,f0
r'.non of South Africa ..........: 23,7'. 16,077 10,157 17,420
Estimated world total, excluding :
Soviet ..ssia and ir:-. ........: 3,602,C0 3,578,0-l' 3,855, )0 4,539,C :
F':ures refer to t e year of harvest. Harvests of the Northern Hemisphere
countries are combined with those )f the Scuthern Hemisphere which immediately
follow; thus the crop harvested in the Northern Hemisphere countries in 1938 is
combined with the Southrrn Hemisphere harvest which begins late in 1.38 and ends
early in 19:.'. 2/ Excluding Soviet Russia.



Table 13.- .Tr.-.'ct surplus for export or carr'.'-over in three exportir.
countries, United Kinr-.-om port stock- and stocks afloat,
March 1, 193"'-39 1/


Position 1936 1937 1-3 S 1.39
: ..':il. u.. i" 1. 'i l '. .
Canada
In '.a. .... ........ : 226 < 51 I"
In .'rnited DStates ........ : 23 17 2 4

Argentina ..................: 51 85 210
Australia ......... 75 75 1 77
Total ............... ... : 7 .


24ocks afloat to:
..ited Kin -om ........... : 22 18 15 20
Continent .... ........: 8 17 160 1
Orders ................... : 9 24 12 10
Total .. ............ : -
Grand total ........... -

..stralia, Dec. 1 of the previous 'a-r) plus rodu action, minus domestic utiliza-
tion f:r the yver, minus --n.+hly r:-r-rts to date.








- 22 -


'-.ble 14.- ?l't imports -f wheat, including flour, into European
countries, year beginning July 1, 1937 and 1938


Country





:elgium ........... :
Czechosl'cv kia ....:
Denmark ...........:
Finland ......... :
France ............:
Germany ...........:
Austria ...........: *
Greece ............
Ireland ...........:
Italy .............:
Latvia ............ :
Netherlands .......
Norway ............:
Poland ............ :
Portugal ..........:
Swdedn ............:
Switzerland .......:
.r.ited Kingdom ....:


S
1937-38 : 1938-39
:forecast
Million Million
bushels bushels


,
:
1/:
:
:

:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:


36
- 1
6
3
15


18
14
5
1
24
7
0
1
2/-1
14
193


45
13
14
18
0
26
8
2/ -3
3
0
17
217


Reported net imports
uly1937-38 1938-39
to
: million n T.illion
: bushels bushels


Dec.
Aug.
Dec.
Dec.
Jan.
Jan.
Dec.
Oct.
Jan.
Jan.
Dec.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Dec.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan..


: 23
2/ 1
: 3
: 1
: 8
: 29
: 3
: 5
: 8
: 5
: 3/
: 15
: 4
: 4/
: B
: 7/-1
: 8

: 111


3/
-17
4
2/-2
3
1
11
121


Total imports of
above ... ......:

Spain ............ .


Total imports ...:
Total exports ...:
Total net imports:


391


4


394
2
392


4


223


213

15 :


28


3
425


2
221


1/ F-recasts by European offices of U. S. Department of Agriculture.
Net exports.
/ Less than 500,000 bushels.
4/ Net exports of- lss thar 5C0,000 bushels.


Compiled from official sources except as otherwise stated.


240


2
238


WS-2 9








nbl e -.-Movement


'~ e U~d d~'~ Vour, ~r !~ ~ru>t~1 ~


Count:


:bur, e1 s


~T "*r'r "'"J "il 1 to d r e -c'n

l 1i,0 -.j 7iO O 1 i,"
1b1L'" ^e 1s 'e. s br:shel s "b11sh a 1s b 11sh e'


J-.ited States l/ : 15, 2,5" 107, <4 12,497 55,313 61,1g7 J.n, ''
-n.",da ........ ::" 447 21 7 73921 115,20 : e 23
Arge-.tina .......: 7 ,577 1 2, 70 7,712: j 1
Australia .....: 105, S 93,730 12 43 74, 37, 2 1, 93D: o. 71
S:,viet Union ....: 2Q,704 4,179 43, 75 o90 9S0 22,480: Se.t.3
-:ncary .........: 14,644 27,42s8 ,368 1 ,-54 ,35 14, o : Dec. 3
Ygoslavia ......: 728' 17,954 5,012 10,402 4,536 ',079: Dec. 1
mLnania ....: 6,392 36,214 32,9c 2 21, 21 22, 7 24, 7-: -. I
?lEaria ........: y 7,273 g,484 4,654 4,610 178: -c. -
;ritish I-o.i ...: 2.55, 16571 10/77 ,612 9,251 7J1: Oct. -
.:tal ......... _4 ,293 Co ,2g 513,20

: Total l Week ended 1f_-3_ : Jnlv 1 Mar. 11
:193637 :J"37~5 :-Feb. 2"5 iMr. 4 Mar. 11: j7-7Z-3- 1-"_''-
0 1,O 000 1 OO 1,0 00' 1," 1, c- i,f-
:bushels bushels bushels u-shels buc'els buhes els 1'.: .els


.'orth America 2/ :
Canada 3/ ........
United States 4/ :
Argentina .......:
Australia .......
Soviet Union ....:
Dainute and
Bulgr-iria 5] ..:
_ritish India ...:


231,832
213,028
10,395
164,678
105,836
38


s14,720
94,546
83,651
66,928
127,520
42,248


5,44o
1,980
2,779
1,1<
2,380
24g


6, 0")7
29/-0
2,860
2,527
1,518
3,562
224


65,544 37,320 568
/16, 16 6_/18 ,73 0


4,449

2,955
2,o0 6
1,746
0


131,5P
7: ,O7-

14,112

79, 32
,352


736 472 70,L'
0 0 11 7


Total J/ .......: 5-,144477 9' -
Total Eur-:pean : / [/
shipments 2I .: 4s,67 0 27.56 6 2 .
Tctal ex-!-ro- :


-ean ship-
merits 2/ .....: 127,192


oo 4i-


- -~


-


i/ In-ludes flour milled in bond from foreign ...eat.
?/ Pr:,omhall's Corn Tr-die :e-.'s.
/J Cfficial exports as reported to date, supplemented by re-oorted weekly
clearances of wheat, and estimates of flour shipments.
4/ Official -*' arts received from 16 principal ports only.
5 Black S:a shipments only.
SOfficial.
7/ Total of trade figures includes :::,rth America as reported 1~" Bromhanll's
buit does not include items 2 a-.d 3.
8/ To February 25.


W '- "I


171,y16

5' ,7


39, 5

34,552
-.Ji^ -


-s :







- 24 -


UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA

3 1262 08861 8268


Table iF.- Shipments of wheat, including flour from principal exporting
countries, sj.'rified dates,.1937-38 and 1938-39


Ar -r.t ina Australia Danube North America
:1 .17-.:- :1i8-J?:1937-38:1938-39:1937-38:1938-39: 1937-38: 1938-39
: lOCO 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
:bushels bushels bushels bushelsbushels bushels bushels bushels

July-Jan. ....: 27,292 34,680 48,496 49,792 26,600 28,768 110,280 140,176
: ended -
Feb. 4 ....: 3,016 3,800 2,176 1,988 920 1,496 3,704 6,344
11 ....: 2,220 2,272 3,460 3,608 504 1,584 3,864 4,686
18 ....: 3,480 3,288 3,444 2,912 504 928 4,352 3,912
25 ....: 3,304 1,188 3,888 2,380 680 568 3,600 5,440
.:r. 4 ....: 2,580 1,518 3,036 3,563 784 736 3,320 6,607
11 ...: 2,220 2,046 4,528 1,746 416 472 2,408 4,449
18 ....: 1,972 1,926 3,856 2,346 864 1,080 3,624 5,244
Compiled from Broomhall's Corn Trade News.


Table 17.- Exports of wheat and wheat flour frmri the United States,
1937-38 and 1938-39

(Includes flour milled in bond from foreign wheat)

S '.r1heat Wheat flour : heat including
Period : : : flour
: 1'.7 .- ,. ;: -0-':7- : 1937-38 : 1938-39 : 1937-38 : 1938-39
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
: bushels bushels barrels barrels bushels bushels

July-Jan. ......: 41,931 46,871 2,863 3,045 55,389 61,183
'-.,.- ended I/: :
Feb. 4 ......: 1,547 2,138 65 43 1,653 2,340
11 ......: 2,047 3,103 39 120 2,230 3,667
18 ......: 3,260 1,419 45 39 3,472 1,602
25 ......: 1,811 2,093 57 146 2,079 2,779
'.-r. 4 ......: 1,167 1,709 71 174 1,501 2,527
11 ...... : 1,253 2.612 53 70 1,502 2,941
18 ......: 1,907 2/2,087 81 2/ 77 2,288 2/ 2,449


'-, i '.r r- rt- ..*. t}, r r.rt --.rt ,:f 'r- r.. -rcc,
/ Data for total exports from the United States by weeks are not
Thstc data represent exports through 16 of the principal ports.
2/ ir iminary.


available.

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