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T :'eau of A.-icult:" .1 Economics : .'." ... : ton T H E W E A T S I U A : I 0 N, T i--'-'' stimat- world wheat plo c 'tion* o t is now i.di ael the FPjr,-' u Af-ricuitural F or.c7-.ics to bc about 4,.1-.-- million bushels. s about C[. -.illion bushels more than the estimate of a month and abut E3' .million Lushels more than the 1-'"-39 harvest. The increase in the world crop over the 'ovember estimate is largely a.-ounted for by the increased estimate for France ,:n the unexpectedly .I - official estimate for the .rg-.tine the largest on record, except for the 1929 crop. If the Ar:--ntine crop is 316 million bushels, as indicated '" the first official estimate, this year's world production* will be the lar-est on record and the total world supplies probably will surpass the previous recc:'d supplies in 197'?. Tr.ere has been no substantial chm.-,:-e in the estimate for any other co:.ntry. With the new Southern .ierisphere crop now being harvest-.., shi]e-r.ts are expected to become heavy and be an important price factor in world markets. The quantity of export sales of United States wheat a-.i flour will :'--_-ely determine the extent to ::*" ich domestic prices remain above world levels. Export sales cf wheat and flour made wholly of United States wheat, July 1 throu,: December 10, totaled about 71 million bushels, inclufir." a recent sale of 25 .million bushels to the United Kir.n-dom. Pror-:' ts '-.ve not !-en favorable for Unit'-d States exports this se-t.-- because of l-.r.>_ pr..iuction in oth-r countriess, and exr-rts of this size have be7n L- i1, possib]i cnly b . Covenrimer.t jid. worldrl d net imports are estimated at about 50 illi..n bushels while supplier available for export in -:ur: lu- on.'.uci.:: countries total a2-lit All refeLrences in thi '. rort to D ,.'cr uj.3 i r'thern -:-.1 're rodu.t icr exclude Soviet FRu. -i; .nd Chi:...'. -2- .' million bushels. A winter w::at acreage in the United St.ates of 46 million acres and a production of 4K-- million bushels were indicated December 21 by the official topr rerc-t as of December 1. ',.- acr. ~' indication r. presents a reduction about 1- -;:rcent from that seeded a year ago. No information is yet avail- able on the probable reduction in spri.:,- wheat s'ediiL;s. If an 18 percent r.- 'tion is also made in the spring '.;- heat acreagt the total spring. v'... '-t areage seeded would be about 19.3 millionn acres. And averj- yields per seeded acre on such an acre;*:' would result in a ringg wheat crop of 195 million bushels. A spring wheat crop of this size t-- other with a winter wheat production of 485 million bushels, would m:ean a total crop of about 6"0 million bushels. This would approximate the aver.'e domestic wheat disri:..'arar.:e of 683 million bushels and ;-rmit the lar/ c arry-over to be re'--.4ced by arproxi- mately the amount of our exports. Weather conditions throughout most of Europe have bc.en generally favor- able for fall seedings, and it is expected that the area sown to winter wheat will equal or exceed that of last fall. '.'-ather conditions also have been favorable for early growth, but recent sub-zero temperatures have caused some concern. TI. acre of rye sown in the United States for all u:;", oses in the fall of 1938 is estimated at 7,171,0(0 acres, which is an increase of 7.5 percent compared with a year earlier. The condition of rye on December 1, 1'.- is reported at 76 percent of normal .:."; .-cd with 74 rorccnt on December I last a' ar, and the 10-ye r 'vera- e of 81 percent, world production of rye* in 1'."9 is in.icat- i to be about 18 erccnt above th..t of 1937. .<.--.W::. ''..'. .-"otil worldl d sc prlies of wheat* iner sharply :'rom 1924 to I 1 ly s s result of incrsed acra" -. :c:. 194r7 to 1.., world :upplis declined, following suce :sive ye 7rs of sr.11 pro- -'tion and in ruesI worldd d and. In I'.-.:: 'or ld supply s wr_- only .ode rjtely 1 rg- r than in I'.. 6. .. th 194-73 period, hn 1orld up-lies wre incroasi:..., w':orld prices u; re d. linirg; te y reached the low( point as su::lies reached the high point. The sharp decline in Trices ofter i'':9 I's dluc la:--':ly to the .-r..-ral decline in commodity prices . Fro:-. the p rir." of 19ZJ to the sur- of 1937, world prices mov.- i ste dailyy upv.w rd, roflectir.-. the vworld- :ide recovery in c-::-..o'ity price levels, currency depreciation, four succ ssive below-.ver .-e harvests in Iorth Ae.rica, i~i the 1935-36 short Southern '.&r.isphere "crop. Estim-.ted world d wheat s'.lij..s increased The whe' t production of the world* in the 19"8-39 season is now estiF.-ted at about 4,448 million bushels. This is 63 million bushels more then the estimate of a month ..:' and 631 million bushels more than the 1937-38 harvest. The. incre-se over the november estimate is l'rg'--ly accounted for by the un..xc-o.ctedly lar.;-. official estimate for Arg-ntina, which was released on L.Ct..bcr 16. Tr..; estimate was placed at 316 million bushels, the lar.-: st on record, except for the 1928 crop, and much above any of the unofficial estimates. H:.rvestir.n is almost completed in Australia and production is now estim tcd at about 140 million bush ls. Returns in most parts of the country are somewhat better than had be n expected In Victoria, however, the continued brought has caused great I terioration, and very poor yields are resulting. The esti,':.ted Northern Hemift-h- re production total* is now pla-, :t about 11 million bushels above the1 figure published in November. The United St tos prciu.7tion is cstimatc-i at ?.-'0, Ol,000 bushels, as compared with the previous estimate of 940,L.'9,000 bushels. Production in Europe, excluding Soviet Russia, is estimated to be about 1,796 million bushels, or an in- orease of 13 million bush ls ovr the previous esti:". te. Tlis is an all- tiTm, .record. Euror _n pro. action, exclu:lin, the Danube Basin and Soviet 2ussi- was, ho': v.r, exceeded in 1l77. ..:ost of the incre-se in the last month occurred in the estimate for F-".nce. The P ris office of the p. -t- rnnt now estimates the 1938 -rc.; At 349 million bushels, compared with the pr vious estimate of 335 million bushels. I ro.l..ction in'-:rl .r..1 and Wales is estimated at almost 3 million bushels above the Nover:.ber estimate, -t. estimate for Spain., h'...v. r, has been revised downward and is pI .c.i at 96 million bu.sh-1s. TFcotnote, pogo 1. Table I shows the estimated world wheat supply and pro-spctive distribution, changed l"y the new production estimate, ccr.mared with 1'7?. Table 6 shows estimatc production by countries for the current season compared with the ..st three seasons. Table 1.-Estimated wheat supply and prospective distribution, world, -r b ir.ir.- July 1, 1928, compared with 19.r :Y ar beinrii rr: Jilry 1 Item : 1937 estimates : 19J9 indications : million bushels Iviillion bushels Carry-over July 1 1/ ..........: 519 595 Production 1/ .................. 3,817 4,448 Total supply ................. 4,336 5,043 Net exports Irom Soviet Russia .: 39 i/ 40 Total of above ...............: 4,375 5,083 Disappearance .................. : 3,780 3,860 Carry-over June 30 ............. : 595 1,223 1/ Excluding stocks and production in Soviet Russia and China. Little change in prospect in European fall seeded acreage fatherther conditions have been generally favorable for fall seedings throsst.out most of Europe, according to the foreign offices of the repart- ment of A-riculture, and it is expected that the area sown to winter wheat will be equal to or exceed that of last fall. Some increase in acre ;c is reported to have taken place in France and Italy. High fixed prices have encouraged increased seedings in France, and Germany has been encouraging increased production by various methods. In Central Europe and the Danube Basin no significant ch-in-e in the area seems likely. Some decline in area may occur in Rumania, because of relatively better returns from corn than wheat. In Yugoslavia, however, prospects point to increased seedinr:s, which may about balance the expected reduction in Rumania. Unrduly dry weather in parts of Northern Africa -y: result in reduced acr.-: there. The Ecruirion Bureau of Statistics estimates that the area sown to fall :heat in Cana:da in the autumn of lQ,9 at 799,(C 0 acres. This is a :, r uase Qf 16,02. acres, or 2 percent, coro.i .ed with the acre uc' r,-n in 1937. Tr.. condition on October 31 was reported as 98 percent of the long- time ave'--':e, compared with ,d percent at the s xic t i: last year. Dro: ht conditions prevaili, in India mike a reduced ncre.- < there seem probable. Se di:. for the l'. crop in China are estimated to be I rug r tnhan for the -re di.-" crop, especially in 1iorth Chi'.. Crop con- ditions are poor in the lower Yangtzo r. f'ion, because of the extremely dry WS-26 5 - World imports still estir-.ted at c0 million bushnl.- more thi3s _,ascr VWorld trade thus far this se-scr. appears to confirm the 7 .eau's 3''r,t'-.ber esti:mte that total world net imports of whi-eat for th, yar bo- ,inrnir.. July 1, 1928, may be about 50 million busT. Is larger thar a y:ar earlier. Table 2 shlo.:E the estimated net imports into Euro; an :.fit wheat countries for this season to be 429 r.illion bush. Is compared with 393 r:.illior. bushels for the year beginning; July 1, 1937. Tn.: present estimate is 8 million bushels less than the estimate issued in 3 -terbber. T:.c decrease is accounted for largely by a downward revision for France, .-:hich was only partly offset by small increases in a number of other coun- tries, including Germany and Greece. Estimated shipments to ncn.-LuropCan countries have been increased 7 million bushels to 115 million, compar,. with 99 million bushels a year age. European and non-European estimates total 544 million bushels this year compared with 492 million bushels for the.year beginning July 1, 1937. Total shipments of what and flour to Eurorea. importing countries since the beginning of the new crmp season have been the heaviest of any recent year (tables 14-16). During the period July-December 3, wheat and flour shipmr-nts to Europe, as indicated by trade sources, wore about 198 million bushels, compared with about 158 million bu.-h.-ls during the &v.:c p'-riod of last season and around 180 million bushels 2 years >co when Europ.an takings for the year reached a high point compared with other recent years. The heavy shipments thus far this season have becn :-.--r in the face of a record 1938 wheat crop in the Europe-.n importing countries and a harv- st -'.r.eatly exceeding th.t of the past 4 years. This very active movremnt for the first part of the season may be largely attributed to the Europe-.n political crisis in Secptember which stimulated rather large pur- chases abroad and also to the heavy early movement from Fuisia. It sc-.-. very unlikely that such a volume of shipments for Europe will be maintained during the b lance of the se,-on. In-rmuh as the heaviest seasonal move- ment for wheat usually occurs from January to March, or even later when Southern H.:7.isphere gr-in is prCssed on European markets (.and their( seems ,-very reason to expect "heavy shipments during this period in 1:''39 due to the bij Art. ntine crop), a marked decline in t:kin,--s v.iLht well be expected the last -aarter (April-June) of the year. The only -apT: rent alternative to this development is a '.'v abnormal increase in European stocks of whc.t. The CG-,illion-bushel increase in the import estim.-t:e for this season is b'.::.d on a pro.'-.ctivc increase in Eurc* --:. stocks of about 10C million bushels. If and when there is reason to believe that reserve stocks are being increased more th in 100 million bushels, it '.-:ill be necessary to revise upward the world i:.p,-rt estimate. .'Ln, Eu rop',-an countries interested in incr,: -Finr their wheat stocks The buildint-, of reserve stocks apparently is the "order of the day" in Europe. France, Germany, the United Kin.zdon, S3:.di..via, e p- ially Norway, Polind, the Danube countries, Italy, Holland, and oth.-rs, o-rpear actively interested in carrying l-ar:,.r wheat stocks. In the case of Fran'e, W-26 North Afric Polind, :nd the Danube countries, the dor.;stic surplus end difficult Ce:'.-rrt situation makes the forming of reserves more active than would oth-rwise probably be the case. In Germany storage facilities aro being significantly incrc-sed to handle the big 1938 crop plus imports for stocks purpose's. Likewise in Poland and Rumania a rro-ram of extending stor -e :: ..ce for gr::in is being und :rtakcn. In the United Kingdom port stocks havw risen sharply, partly due to Government whoet purchases, it is believed. Table 2.-Net imports of wheat, including flour, into Eurropean countries, year bcrginr.-inr July 1, 1937 -.nd 1938 Country Buleium ........... : Cz: hoslov akia ....: DeIruerk ........... : Finl nd ........... : France ............: C Trnr-y 4/ ........ : Grx co ............: Ir I nd ..... .... : It..ly ............. : Latvia ............ : :-.therlands ....... : Uorvay ............ : Pol ind ............ : Portugal .......... : Sweden ............ : -.itze rl end ....... : United Kingdom ....: Total imports of : e.bovc ........: . ir.n ............. Total imports ...: Tot el e :orts ...: Tot l n(et imports: 1937-38 '.h 1. bu. 36 2/- 1 6 3 16 54 16 14 5 1 24 7 0 1 2/ -1 14 193 390 3 2 391 Not imports reported :1938-39 July 1 : forecastt 1/: to : 7-38 1 -39 Mil. bu. Mil. bu. Mil. bu. 39 : Oct. 31 : 14 12 2 : Aug. 31 :1/ 1 1 7 : Sept.30 1 1 3 : Oct. 31: 1 1 2 : Oct. 31: 4 5 45 : Oct. 31: 24 19 15 : Aug. 31: 3 3 14 : Oct. 31 : 5 5 18 : Oct. 31: 5 5 0 : Sept.30 2/ 2/ 24 : Oct. 31 : 8 10 8 : Oct. 31: 2 3 1/-4 : Oct. 31 3/ 1/ -1 3 : Sept.30 : 0 3 0 :Oct. 31 1 1 17 :Oct. 31 : 4 7 217 : Oct. 31 : 65 73 414 15 429 4 425 137 1 136 1 1-4 I/ Forec sts by Europ(e n office s of U.S. Do'-,rti, r.t of A-ri *i-.tu- . 2/ 1-t exports. 3/ Less th in ,'j,)0 bushels. 7/ Includes Austri-' . Compiled from offi*iAl sources excp-'t s otherwise stAted. of wheat, had beer el '"r export the UJnited Statest flrom Ja! y 1 t teeber 10 tablee 5). Cf r s ti e ntit' av r oximaxtliy 4.2 ilion .;:4'; I had er.n exported. "1 2.;. a. ^ 10. Saies of 'ihea t rerpre nt rls ut. n * .r-e't 7f the 71,4 m.i' cn bus:l' l. tot i, sles of :'L 1. r>'ent. -..e -ede"r exet rt su i-'i rro'ram hat' assisted ir the : sai of more t.a." illio bushels 1he;oile t:oP sale to the Urjat i..dl.: . port movement X t'" ted ti is ar. oxe 'orts from te .-..e a asin -ountries, Pcland, r.r nern a Afri .a end Tu:K: n, move into trade almost without .::.. d to other fcrweiio 'om- r-:-tition because of tr-: :e and brer rrar... s. A vry lar art of the exportable surplus, estimated at over 1Ci rilion bushels, "'ill bi -..rt fr:- the Danubian countries, as will -'o the surlu of about -5 million bushels, th the total for Poland, nort.'errn ta '-a r-.f. -.:k -. l rily in the season it was erl- that sir fioant quantities of er.-. rts would be made India. !." crop has not turned out as well as xeted, however, -. exports declined from about 3.5 million b .-els in July and 2.6 million bushels in r.'.;.t to about 1 million bushels in --a ,rbor; no s'aipmcnts have been reported since October 22. :i'orts from Soviet Russia from July 1 to December 10 are estimated at about .:i millionn bus helps, but it is *-x:ected that exports for the rest of the season will be small as result of a small crop. :.vyT -. ipments early in the ..':.on, refleted a sizeable carry-over from last year's ' "'- r -rop. If oxorts t.,-.. the i.-.ted ates total about 100 million bushels, thosher Danubian countries about 9C million bushels, Sovie Russia about 40 million bushels, orosieitive tai-" s "'" deficit countries m.uld .r.p...ar to leave only ai..ut 12 million bushels for other countries. Of this* .... .i.'htsupply I 2 to 130 million. bushels, and and Australia lr., to l1"t million bushels. -1-fi'' :< -" '' ".- *-ral 2 .':lus Comaodities Corporation estimate that the -1i", 1rential on this sale will te slightly above '. cents per bushel. T7, dif" "7'. e bet ;.en the price at which the Yrrbration '".,ys "h. at-. that at which it se'i. has been "in'reasi- as the result of teady domestic prices while foreign pri'cs have been dec-li-,n i-. - 8 - .le 3 shov,.s estimated su plies available for export and very tenta- tive forecasts of net exports for the current season by the various surplus r -ducir. countries. o factors which greatly cc:r licate forecasts this year are universal Government activity in pressing sales and the lar-e Southern Hemisphere crop, which means heavy shipments and increased ccmpeti- tion for the months i.1.ediately ahead. Table 3.- :ct exports, year beginning July 1, 1937, forecasts of supplies available for export and net exports, year beginning July 1, 1938 : Year beginning July 1____ 1937 1938 - Country net : Available for:Forecasted net : exports : export l/ : exports : Mil. bu. Mil. bu. Mil. bu. :..ited States ...............: 100 2/ 250 100 Canada ......................: 09 225 124 :-.r:-.ntina ...................: 70 215) 295 )170 Australia ...................: 123 80) J Danube countries ............: 56 105 90 Soviet Russia ..............: 38 40 40 Balancing item 3/ ..........: 18 25 20 Total 1/ ..............: 494 940 544 1/ Total supplies less probable dom::estic requirements and carry-over. 2/ Loan stocks not deducted. 3/ "Other, countries and any necessary balancing between shipments and re- ceipts resulting from differences in time and accounting. Computed as estimated total not imports loss exports accounted for. 4/ Total not imports, computed as net imports into European deficit countries plus shipments to non-European countries. Government aid to wheat producers is now universal Wheat production and trade has been moving more and more under the control or influence of the national Governments until now it is practiced almost universal ly by both importing and exporting countries. In irm.orting countries: Following the war, Governments in import- ing countries affected wheat production and trade by increased import duties, milling quotas, foreoin-exchange control, monopolies, irm, ort permits and licenses, and special taxes and fees. As an outgrowth of the rcneral rood crop outturns this year and the European political crises in September, Governmental ctivit-y in European wheat trade has increased markedly, until trad, is now dominated by political considerations. Protection r.nd aid to European wheat producers has been increased so that they will not suffer from the low world prices and that local pro- duction -:ill be maintained and in some cases increased. Estonia is the one .r'pean country at present which ap. ..rs to desire a curtailment of wheat production and. is re' -rted to be encour-:-i- a shift 'fro-m. t back to feed :-rains -after a 19>. cror outturn above c0.>estic rLqui :.. I Italy, on the other hand, a new -c-l of production is no. in ic1tei, C.i.y an increase to 9 million tons; the aver. -c for 1931- *'as round 7.3 million tons. Increased use of fertilizer and selected seed :.'ili i~obbly feature in r.:.y hi -.er aver-.,-e. ..s a result of the big domesti. c cross in Belgium and Denmark this yc -r, the mixir.- percentage for home-gron.r. :heat has b-en increased; in Belgium it is re;--rted to be _-" percent for :'oveber and probably '.: percent in December, while in Denmark the quota has recently been set at 5c0 crcent. In S2..eden '-. percent home-grown wheat is required, and in inl:rand 30 :crcent. In ex-.:'rtin- countries:- As wheat prices have declined, the export. - countries of Tu-ro'o as well as overseas exporters have adopted export subsidy schemes so that producers would not feel the full pressure of the world market situation. In the Danube countries as well as in the Soviet Union, the wheat trade is under cou.--.lete control of the various Governments. The -ar.ubian countries move wheat into export effectively by bilateral treaties or agreements with certain '.. -at-i.porting countries, particularly Germany and Italy. In the U.ited States, the method used is for the F.:leral S.rr:lus Commodities Corporation to purchase wheat from regular grain dealers and pro- d1cers on mmestic markets and sell it to exporters at prices which will enable United States wheat to maintain its relative position in world markets. The subsidy .:aid on flour exports is based on the difference between the domestic price of flour and prices in foreign markets at the time of sale. These export aids in addition to other phases of the agricultural adjustment programs have sup:ortc-i domestic prices above world levels. The costs of the subsidy are met from funds made available under Section 32, Public No. 320, as a :..or.dd, and -.ore recently by Section 12, Fublic No, 461. In Cn.aia the minimum price of rIo. 1 Northern Sprin' wheat was established at :.o cents -e.r bushel, basis Fort william-Port Arthur, with prices for lower grA-ies at proportional discounts. No. 3 :: rthern Spring what :.*as set at 71 cents, which 1jrado is fairly comparable with Minneapolis No. 1 Northern 3prir:. wheat, the United States loan value of which is 79 cents. It is estimated that the schedule of prices would net Canadian .row.rs an av -c 0 of from 55 to 60 cents per bushel for'all classes and grades. The handling of wheat has been conducted through r, :ular tra .i channels with the Can-iiian '.'heat Board operating as the sole urc'...er from gro.crs and *the sole seller to the trade for either domestic or export purposes (with minimum riches above market i rices the Government has been obli.-d to take all offerings). In this way wheat is sold at prices no higher for domestic use than for export. The prc-rx-m is financed fr:m general taxes. In Ar:-:r.tina, a minimum internal price the equivalent of about 59-1/2 cents, basis z.aboard ports, has boon announced. The Acjentine l3cvernment finances its losses through profits on transactions in foreign oec:ano. r.:o official exc .:.;os arc provided an official exchange market and a froo ,.ma-rket. ,h'neat oxi.orters are required to sell their bills of excha.ngc to the Exchange Control Co.nmitteeo at the official rate of oxcha-nge and the Committee then sells them to im.orters at a profit. .-26 10 - In Australia wheat producers will receive payments out of a fund obtained by a special levy upon consumers of flour. A price equivalent to about 97 cents has been fixed on all wheat domestically consumed as flour, and payments will be allocated to gro::ers presumably on the basis of total acreage or production. World prices w -ill prevail on wheat for e:-:port. An article titled "Government Aid to Wheat Producers" has been reprinted from the ::cvember issue of "Foreign Agriculture", and copies are available upon request to the Bureau of Agricultural Economics, 'ashington, D. C. In this article the causes for the evolution of aid to wheat producers and the probable effects of existing measures have been analyzed. World prices af-focted by Southern Hemisphere offerings Wheat prices in foreign markets, where not fixed, rose in late November and early December, with some improvement in demand and light Southern Hemi- sphere offerings. Following the week ended December 10, reduced demand, increased offerings of Southern Hemisphere wheat, and prospects of a large crop in Ar :.tina, however, caused prices to decline and thereby lose a part of the gain made since the middle of November. Table 4 shows cash prices of imported wheat at Liverpool and table 6 futures at Liverpool, Winnipeg, and Buenos Aires. With the Southern Hemisphere harvest in full swing and heavy shipments not far distant, offerings of Argentine and Australian wheat are becoming an ir-ortant price factor. The larger-than-expected production in Argentina will cause world shipments to be especially heavy durin- the next quarter. Table 4.- Prices of imported wheat at Liverpool SHard wheats Soft wheats : o S * Date : (Gulf) : Argen- Canada : U.S. : Austra- (Friday) : Ho. 2 : tine No. 3 : Russian (pacific): lian : Yellow : Barusso Manitoba ; White : / :EHI. ..inter: : i/ : : : Corts 3 Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents 1938 Oct. 7 68.9 --- 73.8 59.9 71.9 79.4 14 69.6 --- 74.7 61.4 71.0 74.7 21 : 64.7 --- 75.9 --- 72.2 76.3 28 --- 62.6 72.2 --- 70.0 72.2 I:ov. 4 55.0 58.8 68.4 --- 67.7 68.4 10 55.6 61.6 69.7 --- 63.8 66.7 18 : -- -- 72.0 --- 61.0 66.2 25 59.5 2/ 65.3 74.4 --- --- 66.7 Dec. 2 59.2 2/ 65.8 76.0 --- 62.8 --- 9 : 2/65.6 --- 76.6 --- 64.4 69.3 16 : I/63.5 2/ 62.6 75.5 64.2 _/ ?r. ir :wheat qualifying for Imp.-rial Preference is exempt from duty (proximating 6 cents per bushel) under Ottawa Agreements of November 1932 . 2/ Rosafe. j/ No. 1 Dark Hard Winter. / No. 2 Dark Hard Winter. .:'-26 II - TIC I iTIC .. T ATI BA) CK I. _}T.e carry-over of wieat in the iretd : ',it for the 5 c.rs 1)24- v ra Nd about ii million u.hel:;. Stocks which h b.: an to accumulate in 19 reached 1t record peak of about 375 million bushels in 193. .our s:r.l '.*:eat crops, however, reduced stocks on a comparable basis to about 100 million bushels by July 1, 1937. Domestic disa Ipearnce dur:.. the 10 years 19:.-37 averaged about 6.. million bush is. .: ...tic wheat prices from the spring of 1933 to that of 1937 were unusually high in relation to world market prices, because of four small domestic crops caused largely by ab- nor:...-.lly low yields per acre. During 193I-37 both world and doi':.stic prices advanced sharply as a result of increased dem..and and the smallest supplies in recent years. : rly in the 1937-'3 season, domestic and foreign wheat prices. ose sharply, but later declined with increased -u- ply pros.-ucts, slow European demand, and a falling commodity price level. Prices received by producers for the 1937-38 season av.r..-.:,i 9.6 cents ccnpared with 103 cents in 1936-37. United states production estimate revised downward The -.neral crop report issued Dedi.:ber *1-9 'revised the production estimate for all whoe:t from the previously publishcd-estimate of 940,229,0C) bushels to 93:,601,00 bushels, which is about.6.-r:cent above tale 1937 crop of 875,676,'::0 bushels and nearly 24 percent above the 10-year (1927-36) average production of 752,891,000 bushels. The yield per harvested acre of all wheat in 1933 is estimated at 13.3 bushels, compared with 13,6 bushels in 1937, and 13.5 bushels, the 10-year avtra*-e. Acreages seeded and har- vested, yield ..r seeded acre and production by kinds of wheat for this year, last year and the 10-year avera -e are shown in tables 11 and 12. With a carry-over of 154 million bushels and production of 931 million bushels, supplies total 1,085 million bushels. Domestic disa tearance is still estimated. at about 700 million bushels, which loc-ves about 385 million bushels for export during the season and carry-over next July. The estimated supply and distribution of wheat by classes rc.rn-v i un- ch-nged from that published in the .u-ust issue of "The -.1.oat Situation" except for revisions in the production estimates. These revisions are shown in table 5. The kinds of wheat exported have necessarily been governed by im- porters' :t..,:_-.ds. Hard red winter and white wheat, as is custo:;:-r;.', h.ive constituted the bulk of our c.::.orts this season. Importing countries use considerable hard wheat to mix with their domestically produced wheats to produce a flour .of greater strength. On the other hand, because the domestic production in deficit countries is preder.ihrntly of soft wheats, there is only a limited import demand for soft wheat and exports of such v:heat have been m:>de largely with Government aid. As usual only s:aall quantities of h rd r:* spring wheat and durum 2/ have been exported this year, ;-:. quantity of ::heat under loan on December 15 totaled 59 million bushels, according to an announcement by the Commodity Credit Corporation, i:o distribution by classes has,been made by the Corporation, but Zlate figures broken ,own on the basis of production by classes suggest that the distribution of w'.heat so held is approximately as follows: Hard red s, ring about 22 million bushels, hard red winter about 21 million bushels, white 10 million bushels, durum 4 million bushels a-.d soft red winter 2 million bushels. T-ble 5.- Estimated prospective wheat supplies anddistribution by classes for year beginning July 1, 1938 : .Hard : Soft : Hard : : : Item : red : red : red : Durum : 'Vhite : Total :winter : winter: spring: :Mil.bu. Mil.bu. Mil.bu. Mil.b'u. Mil.bu. Mil.bu. Carry-over July 1, 1933 (old : wheat) S....................: 60 37 31 5 21 154 Production ...................: 380 237 161 42 103 931 Total supply .............: 448 274 192 47 124 1,085 Prospective utilization ......: 275 210 11 35 65 700 Total available for carry-over: and export .................: 173 64 77 12 59 385 Winter wheat acreage reduced 18 percent The area of winter wheat sowun in the fall of 1938 for harvest in 1939 in the United States is .estimated at 46,173,000 acres. This is 18 per- cent below the 5o,355,OCC acr s sown in 1937 and 20 percent below, the record acreage seeded in the fall of 1936, but it is still about 1 percent above the avora -. acreage so:wn to ;winter wheat during the 10 previous years. In most of thu im ortant producing States the acr.-' ;e sown to winter wheat is substantially below the acrea sown in 1936 and in 1937. 2, .i :rt'irie.is for ex ratingg durum are limited this year as a result of an r. tc net surplus in western coditorranian countries, which constitute the important consumerrs of durum products. Algeria and Tunisia together have a deficit of about 4 .dilion bushels, Italy about 1 million, but :r.nce has a surplus of about 9 million.bushels. Estimated production and not imports or ex-ort2 of durum ..heat are shown in tables 9 and 10. - 1 - In Indiana, Illinois -and .:-ts of ad~oinin at s th. iry terfered with sc injs % .:- the acr -.-c is belo: avvr- -c. r2 in : ::r, however, some..hat above avers.e in ~r--.as, Abraska and South :rkota .r recent summer drot. -hts have caused a shift from corn to w.intr .h-t; ':c fr:n Colorado into Montana where winter wheat -:.v an unusuaiiy ,od0 ld in 191,. Acra o als oexceeds avera ge in a less i:-., ort ant roduci .'. exto:. .?h..: from Kentucky and HIcrth Carolina southward. Ine condition of winter wheat on December 1 was 72 percent of norm:rl compared w~ith 76 :.-rcent a year earlier and the 10-year (1926-35) aver1c _.; 80 7rrccnt. In most of the important winter wheat producin. area the re- ported condition ,.as below last year an.1 below the avcr:--c. Conditions were generally o:rest in the Great Plains area from Nebraska southward. In this area early moisture conditions were more favorable than in recent years, re- sulti..- in somewhat better sub-soil conditions. 7ith subsequent dry .-eathcr, however, surfacr moisture was becoming exhausted by :-c-c.ber 1. In parts of the Central Plains area much late seeded wheat had not yet 7,-rminated. Soft winter *.hcat in the Atlantic States and in some East North Central C-ates shows a better condition than in 1937, particularly in Illinois, Missouri, and Iowa. In the Pacific Northwest and in California the condition of winter wheat is close to average. Bas.-' on the past relationship between December 1 condition and yield per seeded acre, with some allowance for the probable effect of weather condi- tions during the past :ummer and fall, the indicated production of winter wheat in 1939 is about 485,000,000 bushels. It is expected that abandonment of sown acreage will be above averar-:- in 1938 and will probably be between 20 and 25 percent. No information is yet available on the probable reduction in s-rin,, wheat so-Ldinr-s. If an 18 percent reduction is made, as is indicated for winter wheat, the total seeded acrc-e- would be about 19.3 million acres. Average yields per seeded acre on such an acreage would result in a spring; wheat crop of 195 million bushels. A spring wheat crop of this size together with a winter wheat production of 485 million bushels, would :. an a total crop of about 680 million bushels. This would approximate the lo-year (1928-37) average domestic wheat disappearance of 683 million bushels and permit the large carry-over to be reduced by approximately the amount of our exports. Domestic prices osu-rortei by export sales 'T,heat prices in the United States fluctuated within narrow limits most of the last half of November, with markets seasonally dull, but rose in early D,.c--r.iber following the announce--c-nt that c:xport sales of 25 million bushels had been made to the United Kingdom. Smaller domestic marketing ?.r.- unfavorable moisture for winter wheat were also strengthening factors. Domestic markets averaged generally 3 to 4 cents higher for the week cnicli December 17 than for the week ended November 19. Durum wheat prices sh-;'.cd particular strength averaging about 6 cents higher as between these 2 weeks. Ch-.nges in domestic prices in the next few months r..ay be :xp>ctLd to be dominr.ted largely by the s-.me factor which influence prices at Liver;'col, with rx:,ort sales of United States wheat also an important price f ctor. *T-26 - 14 - Table 1 .-Avo r-.- c1c.-i.- prices of December wheat futures, sp cifi d markets eand dates, 1937 znd 193,? : 'innipcg : viverpool : Buenos : Chicago : Kninsas ::.ir eaolis Date : : / : Aires :__ Citvy .. 17 :193. :IT :13 1938 .3 1 .l938 .!97 .3193 :1937 :19 :Ce r-s Cens Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents C-r.is Cents Sept. :123.9 Oet. :120.0 Nov. :112.3 61.5 130.2 59.2 12S.7 7.9 120.5 :ov. 5111.1 57.3 125.3 12 112. -7.4 122.4 19:114.- -'.9 120.3 2 :111. 57.9 117.1 Dec. 3:114.3 -.0 114.7 1 ..119.6 60.4 115.4 17 :,5.6 0o.o 114.9 High 125.6 o.4 13o4 Lo..: i/:111.0 57.3 11".7 71.4 0C.7 62.5 62.0 110.2 250.6 62.0 106.7 253.6 63.0 1io.6 55.2 62.7 104.0 52.5 63.5 lo4.1 51.0o 66.1 106.0 51.3 65.8 106.2 49.1 62.2 65.9 4/,.8s 62.0 4/104.0 J/49.1 -. --- io6.6 --- 100.0 .-- .- 90.7 91.2 89.5 91.5 90o.6 93.0 96.1 95.0 103.4 89.5 64.6 65.0 63.3 64.o 64.0 64.o '.2 62.4 64.4 64 .0 65.5 62.2 101.4 97.0 *'.3 Ss.5 86.6 F-11.2 88.8 90.4 93.0 91.8 99.3 S6.6 7.9 114.7 .1.1 10c8. 59.4 ,-.6 59.9 98.8 59.8 98.5 59.7 1C,:.5 :'.6 97.2 59.7 99.0 62.0 101.4 61.8 99.8 62.0 110.9 58.6 -, .5 1J Conversions at noon buying rate of exc>.r.g. . 2/ November futures. / O't -ber 3 to December 17, 1938, and correspondi'g dates 1957. 4/ November t ad December futures. Table 7.-' :igphted average cash price of .:heat, spr-cified markets and dates, 1937 and 1938 :All classes: No. 2 : No. 1 :No. 2 Hard : No. 2 : 'ectern :and grades :Hard "i. ter:Dk.N.Sprirn,: Amber Durum:Red :"inter : white e D'Lte :six Cmir to:Knsas City: inmeapolis:Jinneapolis: St. Louis :Senttle 1/ 3 _:l57_ ''38_ :1937':l93g .i79 ';:l957 *;.l935:197 .1U93j:193U I onathl-:C_ nts Crts Cents Cents Cents 'Cnts Cents C:c.'s C -C-is Cc-ts Cents Cents rs rt. :1 -.7 0 .3 1)9.5 o5.7 133.5 7".2 110.1 68.9 109.2 67.1 95.9 2.7 Oct. :103.7 65.3 10o.o 64.7 126.8 73.3 10.3 65.5 104.0 68.5 90.3 63.2 Nov. : 93.5 p4.9 94.2 *3.3 115.3 73.1 100.2 64.9 93.2 65.- 83.: 63.3 Sek : eroded- w. 5: 94.0 12: ).9 19: 9.0 P2: 93.4 - -. 3: 95.2 10: 7.5 17: .5. -1.-. :106.0 Lo:v /: 90. 64.4 64. 65.2 65.0 65.9 6.23 .3 64. 95.o 92.5 94.9 94.0 35,.4 o . 107.4 92.5 63.7 63.5 64.2 63.3 64.9 6.93 66.8 66.9 3.3. 116.4 115.8 11 .1 108.9 111.6 121..3 116.1 128.9 ];.:.9 71.1 99.3 72.9 9;.2 73.2 101.9 73.3 101.2 74.3 105.1 77.2 101.9 77.6 104.4 77.6 110.4 71.1 96.2 62.7 65.1 64.6 ,65.8 67.9 69.7 70.4 70.4 62.7 25.4 S5.5 93.0 93.2 95.6 95.4 107.4 85.5 66,1 66.0o 66.7 [,.0 66.5 69.0 69.: 69.0 65.0o .85.2 81.8 84. 7 -:4.S 85.3 1 -.0 85.0 91.8 81.8 63.0 63.3 63.4 63.4 63.9 63.8 63.9 62.2 I/ ,kly ;.v r. of daily cash quotations, basis No. 1 -..c,.l. 1/ 'tobtr S to Decumber 17, 1935, and correspo:-lin,- dates for 1937. 6( .6 66.4 66.8 65.9 66.8 68.8 68.8 68.8 65.5 wS- - "5 - Table ..- c-tir.ated production of s.het in s '.,ificdz cou.trieQ, to 19";- : 1935-36 : 19 -.7 : 19,7- S1,000 : bushels ::rth America: United States .,........ ...: Canada ..... ... ......... .: Mexico .... ............. . Total (3) .............. Europe: En-iland and W'ales ..........: Scotland .. ... .............: Northern Ireland ...........: Ireland .. ....... ......... Norway ... ...... .... .... .: e .eden ... .. ..... .........: Denr-ark .................... UItherl ans '..." ..*. ..: Belgium ....................: Prance .a ....... ........ :. a .n ................ .........: ortugal -.................0 taly .......... ... ....... : w-n tzerland ...,,..........: 3er-ai y r. -. n.* : Austria ........... ....... : Czechoslovakia . Greece .... .. .. ... .. .... : Poland ................ ....: Lithuania ...............: Latvia Estonia Finland ....................: Malta ....................: Albania .. ..................: -:6 344 281,935 10,712 - 918,991 60,592 4,4'0 362 6,686 1,869 23,610 14,672 16,653 16,101 -c4.950 157,986 1,022 22,.092 C52,760 5,974 171,488 15,509 62,095 27,180 73,884 10,093 6,520 2,267 4,233 179 1,554 Total (26) ..............: 1,274,811 Bulgaria o. ... .............. : 47,925 'un:gary .24................. 24,224 -Romania- ......... ......... ..: 96,439 Yu-oslavia .................: 73,100 Total (4) ...............: 301,688 Total Duhrope (3:) ......: 1,'7,,49 1 ,0c D bushels 626,766 219,218 . 13,606 . .859,590o 51,445 3,547 273 7,839 2,094 21,635 11,266 15,428 a16,153 ,254,618 121,492 1,071 8,651 224,570 4,470 *ro2,66o *14,037 55,23 19,537 7.2-,357 8,027 S5.272 2,433 5,259 2 , 1,106 1,097,061 6o,350 87 ', ' 128,717 107,422 3:4,278 1,00C bushels 875,6 76 182,41' 5 C0,5 1,o60,672 52,005 4.,1 : 164 2,497 25,720 13,522 12,555 *15,55o 257,833 110,200 1,206 14,540 296,282 6,184 164,12:0 14,470 51.266 .-,373 -r 7C.774 3,109 6,302 2,76.3 7.665 326 1,636 1, 179, l~1 64,9 1 72,158 13 153 86,238 361, 464 3I . 6 2 2/ , 2,614 3 15, 17 S34',31 1 77 69, _ 2/ 5,"? 2,614 5/ 7,-119 15.1 ; 17, -6 4/ 341,: o i/ 95, " 1, 775 i/ 1.,.: 5/ :?7,319 198,_'4 I 161,5:1 65,7:8 35,9 4 9,072 7,(46 2, ",,8 7,973 2 :6 1/ 1,5:: 61,159 95.,36 181,511 43',4 43 i,7=,-0,26" S1,481,3 l"4',: -7 Contin:-,i - ) 5-S w '' ...a- " Es timat ed T:.ble 8.-, production of wheat in specified countries, 1935-36 to 193S-39 Continued - Count r:-- : 1935-36 : 1936-37 : 1937-38 : 1938-39 1,000 NOR- 7. H-1:I SPHERE Cont'd : Africa: Algeria ............ .... .... Morocco ........... .... Tunisia E- t .. .. .. ...... : *Total (4) ..... .... : Asia: Palestine ....* ........ *.. *: Syria and Lebanon .........: India ....... ... ...... ... : Ja -. e ..... .... eee.. e,: Chosen ,. ......... ....... Turkey .....................: bushels- 33,532 20,036 16,902 43,222 113,692 3,834 10,520 363,216 48,718 9,747. 92,641 1 ,000 bushels 29,774 12,234 8,083 45,700 95,791 2,795. 15;704 351,680 45,192 8,095 141,582 1,000 1,000 bushels bushels 33,106 .20,895 .17,637 45,376 117,014 .,4,682 17,227 364,075 50,410 . 10,242 132,985- . 32,066 23,883 13,962 45,933 115,844 1/ 4,000 23,368 -402,453 45,244 10,333 160,424 Total (6) ...............: 536,676 565,048 Total 43 countries ......: 3,145,858 3,001,766 Estimated Northern Hemisphere total, ex- ; cluding Russia and China:. 3,225,000 3,067,000 SOUTHP.: HEMISPHERE Argentina ....................: 141,462 249,193 Australia ....................: 144,218 151,390 Union of South Africa ........: 23,709 16,077 Estimated world total . excluding Russia and China. ..................: 3,601,000 3,540,000 579, 621 645,822 3,306,032 3,840,832 3,372,000 o 3,914,oco 184,801 10",018 10,157 3,817,000 315,993 6/ -140,oc000o 17,407 4,448,000 1/ Approximation. 2/ Estimate of the London office of the Bureau, 3./ ;.timate of the Berlin office of the Bureau. 4/ Estimate of the Paris office of the Bureau. _/ The Paris office of the Bureau regards this official estimate as being too high. 6/ Approximate average of estimates of various States and opinion of.Comi:mon- wealth Bureau, as reported by International Institute of Agriculture. -- Production figures refer to the year of harvest. Harvests of the northernn :is.)hucre countries are combined with those of the Southern Hemis-hero which i:...meliately follow; thus for 1938-39 the c-rop harvested in the Northern He;isphere countries in 1930 is combined with the Southern Hemrisphere harvv.t which begins late in 1938 and ends early in 1939. Cc,rn iled fr-.-, official data except as otherwise noted. YS-26 -16 - ws- *'ble 91 ~ Lum x prr>tior. i r se t14, o "un- ti .r I0 ?vit r.x i i.r'n, Count ry 93-35e : Million *I.- united d 3 t s .... ... .... Car. d.a ........................ Cnnfd ................: :ctal r)_li States -ri Italy ................. ...... : Morrcco ......................: Algeria ...................... T u-ni sia ...................... : Total It-ly .ni l:Trth : Africa ...............: 22.9 9.8 111.3 193 6 Mi 711 i ~) '. LWh~1 15.3 Million OUc_? 7S ? 7. 30.7 393 6 2 .4 "-5 636 57.4 8.5 18.7 4.4* 89.0 75.0 12.7 - *5 10.3 1O 5 1/ In Argentinr, In..i~, .nii n-z1si, where durum is alsc an important estimate of durum production is made. 2/ Y-:-r 1935 only. 21.8 2/17.8 T>.ble 10.- uru-.. wheat estimate'- net imports or net e.T.-rrts (-) in selected countries, 1939 with comparisons I/ YePr beginning August 1 Country : vA-.-r- e : : : 1937-38 :1931-32 to: 1935-36 : 1936-37 Ireli i-r- r 1935-36 : : ' 19 ~39 forecast : millionn Million Million Million Million r ...............: 11.9 10 3 9.3 9.8 9 It ,-" .................: 2.8 1.0 -1.1 .8 g / 9 Moroceo ............... : -0-.7 .2 .8 0 Al1Eria ................: *. 8.4 -".5 -6.4 -3.7 Tunisia ..............:: .5 -1.6 I -.7 Total ............ 3 9 / Estimr'.ti by P-ris office of the :nu of kricultural economic. / et e:xrrts. Mill Ic *~.1-~__17 L1.6 .0 80.8 14.7 22.0 7.7 crop, no - 18 - Ts I 11 .- Estimated United States wheat acre-.- harvested, and production, 1937 and comparisons Acreage harvested. Production C r : A-.r -e: 1937 1938 :Average : 1937 : 1938 : 1927-36: crop : cr:p : 1927-36: cr.)p : crop : 1,000 1,000 ,000 1,000 1,00 1,000 : acres acres acres bushels hb'- 1 z 1 ush.els -: /. _/..........: 3,620 2,786 3,545 40,085 27,971 4o,445 Other Spring 2/...: 14,424 14,658 16,965 166,410 161,881 203,719 All Spring .....: 18,044 17,444 20,510. 206,495. 189,852 24h4,164 Winter / .........: 37,281 46,978 49,711 546,396 685, 824 6?6,637 All wheat ......: 55,325 64,422 70,221 752,891 875,676 930,801 I M-rth Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota. ' 2 Includes durum in States other than North D-kota, South Dakota, and Minnesota. ]/ Sown previous fall. Table 12.- Estimated United States wheat acre.-- seeded I yield per seeded acre, 1937, and comparisons Acrea'-e seeded : Yield per seeded acre Crcp Averr e : 1937 : 1938 :Avor--re : 1937 : 1938 :1927-36 : crop : crop :1927-36 : cr:p : crop : 1,000 1,000 1,000 acres acres a cr Cs ?B, Bushel s Bushels -:rum 4I.........: 4,192 3,214 3, 56 8.5 8.7 10.5 Other Spring /...: 17,033 20, 02 19 659 9.5 8.0 .10,4 All Snring .....: 22. 5 2, LL6 23 )15 9.3 8.1 10.4 Winter 3/.........: 4,644 57,656 56,355 12.0 11.9- 12.2 All wheat .....: 67,79 T 1 ,072 79, 70 11.2 10.8 11.7 Se table 11 fcr footnotes. i '. :. ... i 'r i. i 1. .t .' In Cani da .. . : 269 I' 1 in Unit ehd Sttes ......I: ?.5 '4 ;I Argentina .... ......... : 22 1 1 Australia ...............: 21 11 5 14 Tot al ................. : ? .745 16 Unit :. -loiom port stocks ............ : 9 7 11 19 Stocks afloat to: Unit i .- ....... : 19 19 1 Contin nt .............: 6 14 13 11 Cr -.rs ................: 6 10 b Total ...............: 36 46 4_ _GTrand total .........: 3 8__1 211 1 - 1/ C :-;y-ovcr at the t -ir..i. i of the year (Canada, July 21; -.:" rntina, J:.' .;,': 1; Australia, December 1 of the previous year) plus production, minus domestic utilization for the year, minus monthly experts to date. ' "--26 { \ -. -&b :.- - able 14.-'.:orts of wha'at and wheat flour :"'r the United ll I i19b o nd 198 t (Includes flour killed in bond :,":',: foreign wYhe-at) , at : U1,s 0 : bush. Is July-C. ..... ".ie0k ended i/. : Nov. ..... : 12 ..... : 19 ..... 26 0. 3 10 17,35F3 1, 184 1,939 1 ,280 936 2,211 1,690 7Jh, at flour 1,000 bushels 1957 1,000 barrels 1,548 717 387 2,092 458 538 J/ 110 63 355 62 72 144 160 1938 1,C ) barrels '"..at including flour 1937 12?8 1,000 bushes ls 1,741 24,.59 93 84 51 81 57 2/151 1,480 2,103 1,571 1,274 2,442 1 ,000 bushels 35,-36 1,154 782 2,232 3 59 606 2/ ,: Corm ili 1'ro>: reports of the Departmcnt of Commerce. _/ Data for total cxrorts from the United States w:v :.ks arc not available. 7:. s< data are the total of exports through 16 of the principal ports. 2/ Freliminary. Table 15.-Shil nts of ~heat, including flour fro.- principal exporting countries, sp;eified dates, 1.,7 and ir27 : Argentina : Australia : Danube :North A-. rica Prd 1937 : 1978 : 1937 : 198 : 1937 : 193 : 1967 : 1938 : 1,000 1,0(0 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,"0 1,000 :bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels 7,464 52,280 10,776 Y;eek ended- Ncv. 5 ...... : 12 ...... : 19 ...... : 26 ...... . 7 ...... : 10 ...... 17 ....... 216 0 1,012 128 368 408 1,068 1,012 900 712 680 1,116 453 996 1,764 1,900 972 2,872 1,476 2,068 496 568 584 1,536 608 1,644 1,693 594 2,224 912 632 1,160 976 176 848 2,2f56 1,672 2,624 1,504 1,136 4, -. 5,368 5,360 5,304 6,360 35,592 4,128 6,192 6,488 5,992 6,312 4,688 2,123 1,658 ihrIll's Corn Trade 'ws. July-Oct. ......: 13,676 20,124 21,112 30,752 17,264 iY ~ T ~ B .-Mov rn r~ (f *~h~ ~-v' ~ ~( ~r ~ C~>~ t21 2, -3 C ount United -artos ]J Argntr.ina ...... Australia ...... S:-oslvi a ....... - _.7r. ria ....... '-^l.I- Tot rl ^ili o -!3 bosh_ 23, 15,~ 76,577 7 62, 1037, 3. -. '. 14,644 27, I 72S 17,- 6,3)2 3- , 91 7, 2 T : Jul 1 to'I,) J ,"1I' : w __ >2S )77 .70 T? 2 E ?73 British :r L-:a ..a J. ..... . Tot ..... 88 .:orth A.- rica 2/ Cro:r c. [ / ..... -r.ited 3Sates s/ Arg: -.,ina ...... Australia ...... F.ussia. ......... 7, , ..r. 137,3)2 69,670 19,072 3,34 3`15 .c- 1, 99 19 lC~ -. 2,994k 3,332 10, KT- 1 2J __1,920 : r h-" t "" -.. . :" OT 1 :- "'k .nded 1 3 J~ : 37-37 :19 733 Dc. 3 :"Dc. 10 :Dee. 17 :0 1,0C. 1, 1,0- ) 1 ,CO0 1,000 b..shcls ,uel bushrls bushels bushJels 231,2 1 720 4,6 2,123 1, : 213, 9 4,. 3,327 1,914 --- 10,3 3,51 bo S20 -- S14,7 3 66,920 1,116 53996 105, 36 127,5 D 608 1,644 1,6 3 42,248 552 264 - 1 2 " i, e y U> 130 3 : -. l; 1 Dec .21 1,000 1,00 )1h is bush3s7 ,7,20 14,;, . / '" '30, -t /33, 05 16.36 25,9 93 33,o96 37,s7l 29,712 37,128 Dwr.ube and Bulgaria 6/ .: 65,544 37,320 3,624 1,5o4 1,136 23, 9- British India :7 11 65 19'67L 0 0 0_ 7 Total / .. : ^-^^1- .... ,:;_,~ '-: Tot-.1 European : s i .- ints ..: 24.-7: 7,2 Total ex- _..ro- :/ p aL shir.:-.-.t3 : 127,192 99,4C" 2,144 37.3 :"' 1/ Includes flour u:i'led i: bond from foreign w ieat. 2/ Broomhall's Corn Tr-.je Ie.s. V/ Official exports as report to d.te, supplemented by reported .'oekly clearances of ':heat, :.d esti %.tes of flour shirm,-nts. _' Thro..h D.- ::mner 10 only. 5/ officiall reports recoei.' i from 1 principal ports only. 6/ Black :-'. s.ir-'ents only. j- Official. Total :f' trade fi.-.r s inc ud rth America as reported ':. Proomhal .does n_,t inc .id. items 2 -m-d 3. 9/ :.-. --mber 3 c- y. 19,384 ,j 45,912 l's '-.* 7;,-* - 22- ':..LD R'.i PRODUCTION IN 1938 The wor'l production of r'ye in 1933 is indicated to be about 18 percent above :.'t of 1937, and is the l'r--st on record. The production in the 31 coun- tries reporti-:..- (table 18) is estimated at ..,058 million bushels, -eomcared with the 1937 crop of 595 million bushels in the' ime countries. U:.TED STATES RYE SO7W'T FOR HARVEST IN 1939 The acre of rye so.'n for all purposes in the fall of 1938 is --timsated at 7,171, ,.. acres, which is an increase of 7.5 percent over the 0,671,C00 acr-'s shown in the fall of 1937. Increases in sown acreage were quite general through- out the co-..,'ry. The only important rye producing State to show a decrease from last year was 7"isconsin, for which a decline of 19 percent is shown. Increases of 5 percent and 6 percent, respectively, are shown for North and South Dakota. _-e total seeded acreage in 1936 was 7,371,000 acres. A considerable acr.e-.e of rye is sonr for purposes other than grain production, such as cover crop, ha.:, and pasture. The condition of rye on December 1, is reported at 76 percent of normal compared with 74 percent on December 1 last year, and the 10-:y ar ('1952-35) avers-. of 31 percent. The December 1 condition was ahove last year in most of the Northern Great Plains area and the ;. a east of the Rockies. This was partial- ly off:. + by lower condition in much of the Eastern Corn Belt and in the Pacific Coast States. T?. acre --. of rye clIt for grain depends to a cc:n.7idorable extent on prices before harvest and availability of feed supplies. In 193' growers harvested 3,979,000 acres or 60 percent of their seeded acres, while over the 6-year (1931-36) period they harvested 52 percent. If growers should harvest 52 percent of the 7,171,000 acres seeded this fall (3,729,00C0/.)1 1if avorE,: yields were obtained, it would mean a production of about 45,000,000 bushels which is the amount of our domestic disr.ppearr-nce duri_- the past three seasons (table 17). CANADIAN RY. SCO1';: FOR HARVEST IN 1939 The sowings of fall rye in Canada for harvest in 1939 are estimated at 59(-,000 acres, an increase of 2 percent, compared with the acre.- e sown a year earlier. The condition on October 31 was 91 percent of aver-.ce, compared with <4 percent on the same date in 1937. Table 17.-Rye: Supply and distribution, United States, 1935-38 Item !~3 -r : : 1 b-" : 0 h: - :1_t eC0_b0.0.b lJ.. 1 L bls]_. l00 bush. Stocks Jul 1 1/ ............: 11, 22,.. 5 :. : c..tion ...................: 8,597 23,319 49, '-) I-. -,rts ........................._ 2 266 3_63 _. ... ... Total sup. ply ......... ,, . r- ........ .................... .9 o,57S S-3..'cks June 3 1 ...... .. : 22, '. -'"C-. ... 1I Includ ~: stocks on farms as of June 1 (available only b.-irimng and only for June 1) plus commercial stocks as of July 1. 2/ L.ss thVn '-,) bushels. 9,039' 55,039 with 1935 7"1 e 1 ;: -- .t .1 T .. * U A, .* '. 0 ., ., .- l ^ Count ry : :. ;. .t.:.' : 1 .'. : 1 --5 -A:~ .t ) . .. 2 2 ......L- kA: U~ te < at .... ... 1" .. .. .. CzeThoslcv kia .....: S. ni ............. : stonia . . Ireland ............ : Italy .............. Latvia ............. ,Lit' e -::ia .......... : Netherlands ........: Nerway ............. : Portugal ........... ;. .. .. ............ e . ... ^itzerland ........ .tal ( ) ....... E -. qria ........... -.:1-.;ary ............ -tL.ar.la ............ Y'at-oslavia ......... T .I (4) ........ Al!-eria ............ : AP rt.ntina .......... : 11,17 13 ,7'2 29,371 S4,416 2, 1- 25, '1 452 18,311 483 260,409: 4,635 19,245 16,902 1,2 :5 - ,6-'- 7,767 28,650 12,724 771 6,023 14,C59 ,48 2,150 - 7, 18,610 1,654 69 5,204 11,260 449 18,77. 425 :. 0,536 3,466 18,053 13,8 R8 1,077 7 -.,644 38,188 -,114 61 ,142 9 7, '. 0 .*, 7,0 ,119 16, " 5,701 57, 594 18,928 443 221 ,35 4 r. 19,61" 1G,: :.0 1,296 -.-. ,161 C) I35 29,< 17,769 8,243 %-m --- r-, (-* 2" - S6,1 3/ 16,- -72 -. ,>- 473 272, 4 ', l/ 16,' .i -8 ,3 15 50,747 9.-'" 72 11,614 : .rkey ....... ...- 17 674 64 ___ 21:'7 T-tal (31) ........: 12< ,: "1 8 3,093 .'14,19 1 .: -,419 C1". led :''.-c:. officia'1 -:ta, expert as otherwise noted. Production fiu'cres refer tc the -- ar of harvest. harvests of the northern Hemisphere coun- tries are coribincd with those of tIe Southern '.i -sphere wno1h ine ..ately follow: t>.s, for 1.-.--39 toie rop harvest- in the "rthern -*:.: s: h'.-re countries in l'.-- is coi.bined with the Southern Hemi-'-- re harvest which "-'i .. I'.t- in 19:." a en ds early in 1." . _/ .-tir:-ite of the0 erlin o" "-ice of the Bureau of .7.*"i cultural 7 onomriep. UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 3 1262 08861 8292 If SI 41 it t, |
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