Wheat situation

T :'eau of A.-icult:" .1 Economics
: .'." ... : ton




T H E W E A T S I U A : I 0 N,




T i--'-'' stimat- world wheat plo c 'tion* o t is now i.di ael the

FPjr,-' u Af-ricuitural F or.c7-.ics to bc about 4,.1-.-- million bushels. s

about C[. -.illion bushels more than the estimate of a month and abut

E3' .million Lushels more than the 1-'"-39 harvest.

The increase in the world crop over the 'ovember estimate is largely

a.-ounted for by the increased estimate for France ,:n the unexpectedly .I -

official estimate for the .rg-.tine the largest on record, except for the

1929 crop. If the Ar:--ntine crop is 316 million bushels, as indicated '" the

first official estimate, this year's world production* will be the lar-est

on record and the total world supplies probably will surpass the previous recc:'d

supplies in 197'?. Tr.ere has been no substantial chm.-,:-e in the estimate for

any other co:.ntry.

With the new Southern .ierisphere crop now being harvest-.., shi]e-r.ts

are expected to become heavy and be an important price factor in world markets.

The quantity of export sales of United States wheat a-.i flour will :'--_-ely

determine the extent to ::*" ich domestic prices remain above world levels.

Export sales cf wheat and flour made wholly of United States wheat,

July 1 throu,: December 10, totaled about 71 million bushels, inclufir." a

recent sale of 25 .million bushels to the United Kir.n-dom. Pror-:' ts '-.ve not

!-en favorable for Unit'-d States exports this se-t.-- because of l-.r.>_ pr..iuction

in oth-r countriess, and exr-rts of this size have be7n L- i1, possib]i cnly b .

Covenrimer.t jid. worldrl d net imports are estimated at about 50 illi..n bushels

while supplier available for export in -:ur: lu- on.'.uci.:: countries total a2-lit
All refeLrences in thi '. rort to D ,.'cr uj.3 i r'thern -:-.1 're rodu.t icr
exclude Soviet FRu. -i; .nd Chi:...'.







-2-

.' million bushels.

A winter w::at acreage in the United St.ates of 46 million acres and

a production of 4K-- million bushels were indicated December 21 by the official

topr rerc-t as of December 1. ',.- acr. ~' indication r. presents a reduction

about 1- -;:rcent from that seeded a year ago. No information is yet avail-

able on the probable reduction in spri.:,- wheat s'ediiL;s. If an 18 percent

r.- 'tion is also made in the spring '.;- heat acreagt the total spring. v'... '-t

areage seeded would be about 19.3 millionn acres. And averj- yields per

seeded acre on such an acre;*:' would result in a ringg wheat crop of 195

million bushels. A spring wheat crop of this size t-- other with a winter wheat

production of 485 million bushels, would m:ean a total crop of about 6"0 million

bushels. This would approximate the aver.'e domestic wheat disri:..'arar.:e of

683 million bushels and ;-rmit the lar/ c arry-over to be re'--.4ced by arproxi-

mately the amount of our exports.

Weather conditions throughout most of Europe have bc.en generally favor-

able for fall seedings, and it is expected that the area sown to winter wheat

will equal or exceed that of last fall. '.'-ather conditions also have been

favorable for early growth, but recent sub-zero temperatures have caused some

concern.

TI. acre of rye sown in the United States for all u:;", oses in the

fall of 1938 is estimated at 7,171,0(0 acres, which is an increase of 7.5

percent compared with a year earlier. The condition of rye on December 1,

1'.- is reported at 76 percent of normal .:."; .-cd with 74 rorccnt on December

I last a' ar, and the 10-ye r 'vera- e of 81 percent,

world production of rye* in 1'."9 is in.icat- i to be about 18

erccnt above th..t of 1937.











.<.--.W::. ''..'. .-"otil worldl d sc prlies of wheat* iner
sharply :'rom 1924 to I 1 ly s s result of
incrsed acra" -. :c:. 194r7 to 1.., world :upplis
declined, following suce :sive ye 7rs of sr.11 pro-
-'tion and in ruesI worldd d and. In I'.-.:: 'or ld
supply s wr_- only .ode rjtely 1 rg- r than in I'.. 6.

.. th 194-73 period, hn 1orld up-lies
wre incroasi:..., w':orld prices u; re d. linirg; te y
reached the low( point as su::lies reached the high
point. The sharp decline in Trices ofter i'':9 I's
dluc la:--':ly to the .-r..-ral decline in commodity prices .
Fro:-. the p rir." of 19ZJ to the sur- of 1937, world
prices mov.- i ste dailyy upv.w rd, roflectir.-. the vworld- :ide
recovery in c-::-..o'ity price levels, currency depreciation,
four succ ssive below-.ver .-e harvests in Iorth Ae.rica,
i~i the 1935-36 short Southern '.&r.isphere "crop.

Estim-.ted world d wheat s'.lij..s increased

The whe' t production of the world* in the 19"8-39 season is now
estiF.-ted at about 4,448 million bushels. This is 63 million bushels more
then the estimate of a month ..:' and 631 million bushels more than the
1937-38 harvest.

The. incre-se over the november estimate is l'rg'--ly accounted for
by the un..xc-o.ctedly lar.;-. official estimate for Arg-ntina, which was
released on L.Ct..bcr 16. Tr..; estimate was placed at 316 million bushels,
the lar.-: st on record, except for the 1928 crop, and much above any of the
unofficial estimates.

H:.rvestir.n is almost completed in Australia and production is now
estim tcd at about 140 million bush ls. Returns in most parts of the
country are somewhat better than had be n expected In Victoria, however,
the continued brought has caused great I terioration, and very poor yields
are resulting.

The esti,':.ted Northern Hemift-h- re production total* is now pla-, :t
about 11 million bushels above the1 figure published in November. The United
St tos prciu.7tion is cstimatc-i at ?.-'0, Ol,000 bushels, as compared with the
previous estimate of 940,L.'9,000 bushels. Production in Europe, excluding
Soviet Russia, is estimated to be about 1,796 million bushels, or an in-
orease of 13 million bush ls ovr the previous esti:". te. Tlis is an all-
tiTm, .record. Euror _n pro. action, exclu:lin, the Danube Basin and Soviet
2ussi- was, ho': v.r, exceeded in 1l77. ..:ost of the incre-se in the last
month occurred in the estimate for F-".nce. The P ris office of the p. -t-
rnnt now estimates the 1938 -rc.; At 349 million bushels, compared with the
pr vious estimate of 335 million bushels. I ro.l..ction in'-:rl .r..1 and Wales
is estimated at almost 3 million bushels above the Nover:.ber estimate, -t.
estimate for Spain., h'...v. r, has been revised downward and is pI .c.i at 96
million bu.sh-1s.
TFcotnote, pogo 1.











Table I shows the estimated world wheat supply and pro-spctive
distribution, changed l"y the new production estimate, ccr.mared with 1'7?.
Table 6 shows estimatc production by countries for the current season
compared with the ..st three seasons.


Table 1.-Estimated wheat supply and prospective distribution,
world, -r b ir.ir.- July 1, 1928, compared with 19.r


:Y ar beinrii rr: Jilry 1
Item : 1937 estimates : 19J9 indications
: million bushels Iviillion bushels

Carry-over July 1 1/ ..........: 519 595
Production 1/ .................. 3,817 4,448
Total supply ................. 4,336 5,043
Net exports Irom Soviet Russia .: 39 i/ 40
Total of above ...............: 4,375 5,083
Disappearance .................. : 3,780 3,860
Carry-over June 30 ............. : 595 1,223
1/ Excluding stocks and production in Soviet Russia and China.



Little change in prospect in European fall seeded acreage

fatherther conditions have been generally favorable for fall seedings
throsst.out most of Europe, according to the foreign offices of the repart-
ment of A-riculture, and it is expected that the area sown to winter wheat
will be equal to or exceed that of last fall. Some increase in acre ;c is
reported to have taken place in France and Italy. High fixed prices have
encouraged increased seedings in France, and Germany has been encouraging
increased production by various methods. In Central Europe and the Danube
Basin no significant ch-in-e in the area seems likely. Some decline in area
may occur in Rumania, because of relatively better returns from corn than
wheat. In Yugoslavia, however, prospects point to increased seedinr:s,
which may about balance the expected reduction in Rumania. Unrduly dry
weather in parts of Northern Africa -y: result in reduced acr.-: there.

The Ecruirion Bureau of Statistics estimates that the area sown to
fall :heat in Cana:da in the autumn of lQ,9 at 799,(C 0 acres. This is a
:, r uase Qf 16,02. acres, or 2 percent, coro.i .ed with the acre uc' r,-n in
1937. Tr.. condition on October 31 was reported as 98 percent of the long-
time ave'--':e, compared with ,d percent at the s xic t i: last year.

Dro: ht conditions prevaili, in India mike a reduced ncre.- < there
seem probable. Se di:. for the l'. crop in China are estimated to be
I rug r tnhan for the -re di.-" crop, especially in 1iorth Chi'.. Crop con-
ditions are poor in the lower Yangtzo r. f'ion, because of the extremely dry








WS-26 5 -

World imports still estir-.ted at c0 million bushnl.- more thi3s _,ascr

VWorld trade thus far this se-scr. appears to confirm the 7 .eau's
3''r,t'-.ber esti:mte that total world net imports of whi-eat for th, yar bo-
,inrnir.. July 1, 1928, may be about 50 million busT. Is larger thar a y:ar
earlier. Table 2 shlo.:E the estimated net imports into Euro; an :.fit
wheat countries for this season to be 429 r.illion bush. Is compared with
393 r:.illior. bushels for the year beginning; July 1, 1937. Tn.: present
estimate is 8 million bushels less than the estimate issued in 3 -terbber.
T:.c decrease is accounted for largely by a downward revision for France,
.-:hich was only partly offset by small increases in a number of other coun-
tries, including Germany and Greece. Estimated shipments to ncn.-LuropCan
countries have been increased 7 million bushels to 115 million, compar,.
with 99 million bushels a year age. European and non-European estimates
total 544 million bushels this year compared with 492 million bushels for
the.year beginning July 1, 1937.

Total shipments of what and flour to Eurorea. importing countries
since the beginning of the new crmp season have been the heaviest of any
recent year (tables 14-16). During the period July-December 3, wheat and
flour shipmr-nts to Europe, as indicated by trade sources, wore about 198
million bushels, compared with about 158 million bu.-h.-ls during the &v.:c
p'-riod of last season and around 180 million bushels 2 years >co when
Europ.an takings for the year reached a high point compared with other
recent years. The heavy shipments thus far this season have becn :-.--r in
the face of a record 1938 wheat crop in the Europe-.n importing countries
and a harv- st -'.r.eatly exceeding th.t of the past 4 years. This very active
movremnt for the first part of the season may be largely attributed to the
Europe-.n political crisis in Secptember which stimulated rather large pur-
chases abroad and also to the heavy early movement from Fuisia. It sc-.-.
very unlikely that such a volume of shipments for Europe will be maintained
during the b lance of the se,-on. In-rmuh as the heaviest seasonal move-
ment for wheat usually occurs from January to March, or even later when
Southern H.:7.isphere gr-in is prCssed on European markets (.and their( seems
,-very reason to expect "heavy shipments during this period in 1:''39 due to
the bij Art. ntine crop), a marked decline in t:kin,--s v.iLht well be expected
the last -aarter (April-June) of the year.

The only -apT: rent alternative to this development is a '.'v abnormal
increase in European stocks of whc.t. The CG-,illion-bushel increase in
the import estim.-t:e for this season is b'.::.d on a pro.'-.ctivc increase in
Eurc* --:. stocks of about 10C million bushels. If and when there is reason
to believe that reserve stocks are being increased more th in 100 million
bushels, it '.-:ill be necessary to revise upward the world i:.p,-rt estimate.

.'Ln, Eu rop',-an countries interested in incr,: -Finr their wheat stocks

The buildint-, of reserve stocks apparently is the "order of the day"
in Europe. France, Germany, the United Kin.zdon, S3:.di..via, e p- ially
Norway, Polind, the Danube countries, Italy, Holland, and oth.-rs, o-rpear
actively interested in carrying l-ar:,.r wheat stocks. In the case of Fran'e,







W-26


North Afric Polind, :nd the Danube countries, the dor.;stic surplus
end difficult Ce:'.-rrt situation makes the forming of reserves more active
than would oth-rwise probably be the case. In Germany storage facilities
aro being significantly incrc-sed to handle the big 1938 crop plus imports
for stocks purpose's. Likewise in Poland and Rumania a rro-ram of extending
stor -e :: ..ce for gr::in is being und :rtakcn. In the United Kingdom port
stocks havw risen sharply, partly due to Government whoet purchases, it is
believed.


Table 2.-Net imports of wheat, including flour, into Eurropean
countries, year bcrginr.-inr July 1, 1937 -.nd 1938


Country


Buleium ........... :
Cz: hoslov akia ....:
DeIruerk ........... :
Finl nd ........... :
France ............:
C Trnr-y 4/ ........ :
Grx co ............:
Ir I nd ..... .... :
It..ly ............. :
Latvia ............ :
:-.therlands ....... :
Uorvay ............ :
Pol ind ............ :
Portugal .......... :
Sweden ............ :
-.itze rl end ....... :
United Kingdom ....:

Total imports of :
e.bovc ........:
. ir.n .............

Total imports ...:
Tot el e :orts ...:
Tot l n(et imports:


1937-38

'.h 1. bu.

36
2/- 1
6
3
16
54
16
14
5
1
24
7
0
1
2/ -1
14
193


390


3


2
391


Not imports reported
:1938-39 July 1 :
forecastt 1/: to : 7-38 1 -39
Mil. bu. Mil. bu. Mil. bu.

39 : Oct. 31 : 14 12
2 : Aug. 31 :1/ 1 1
7 : Sept.30 1 1
3 : Oct. 31: 1 1
2 : Oct. 31: 4 5
45 : Oct. 31: 24 19
15 : Aug. 31: 3 3
14 : Oct. 31 : 5 5
18 : Oct. 31: 5 5
0 : Sept.30 2/ 2/
24 : Oct. 31 : 8 10
8 : Oct. 31: 2 3
1/-4 : Oct. 31 3/ 1/ -1
3 : Sept.30 : 0 3
0 :Oct. 31 1 1
17 :Oct. 31 : 4 7
217 : Oct. 31 : 65 73


414


15

429
4
425


137


1
136


1
1-4


I/ Forec sts by Europ(e n office s of U.S. Do'-,rti, r.t of A-ri *i-.tu- .
2/ 1-t exports.
3/ Less th in ,'j,)0 bushels.
7/ Includes Austri-' .


Compiled from offi*iAl sources excp-'t s otherwise stAted.














of wheat, had beer el '"r export the UJnited Statest flrom Ja! y 1 t
teeber 10 tablee 5). Cf r s ti e ntit' av r oximaxtliy 4.2 ilion .;:4'; I
had er.n exported. "1 2.;. a. ^ 10. Saies of 'ihea t rerpre nt rls ut. n
* .r-e't 7f the 71,4 m.i' cn bus:l' l. tot i, sles of :'L 1.
r>'ent. -..e -ede"r exet rt su i-'i rro'ram hat' assisted ir the : sai of
more t.a." illio bushels 1he;oile t:oP sale to the Urjat i..dl.: .

port movement X t'" ted ti is ar.

oxe 'orts from te .-..e a asin -ountries, Pcland, r.r nern a Afri .a
end Tu:K: n, move into trade almost without .::.. d to other fcrweiio 'om-
r-:-tition because of tr-: :e and brer rrar... s. A vry lar art of
the exportable surplus, estimated at over 1Ci rilion bushels, "'ill bi
-..rt fr:- the Danubian countries, as will -'o the surlu of about
-5 million bushels, th the total for Poland, nort.'errn ta '-a r-.f. -.:k -.

l rily in the season it was erl- that sir fioant quantities
of er.-. rts would be made India. !." crop has not turned out as well
as xeted, however, -. exports declined from about 3.5 million b .-els
in July and 2.6 million bushels in r.'.;.t to about 1 million bushels in
--a ,rbor; no s'aipmcnts have been reported since October 22.

:i'orts from Soviet Russia from July 1 to December 10 are estimated
at about .:i millionn bus helps, but it is *-x:ected that exports for the rest
of the season will be small as result of a small crop. :.vyT -. ipments
early in the ..':.on, refleted a sizeable carry-over from last year's
' "'- r -rop.

If oxorts t.,-.. the i.-.ted ates total about 100 million bushels,
thosher Danubian countries about 9C million bushels, Sovie Russia
about 40 million bushels, orosieitive tai-" s "'" deficit countries m.uld
.r.p...ar to leave only ai..ut 12 million bushels for other countries. Of
this* .... .i.'htsupply I 2 to 130 million. bushels, and and
Australia lr., to l1"t million bushels.




-1-fi'' :< -" '' ".- *-ral 2 .':lus Comaodities Corporation estimate that
the -1i", 1rential on this sale will te slightly above '. cents per bushel.
T7, dif" "7'. e bet ;.en the price at which the Yrrbration '".,ys "h. at-.
that at which it se'i. has been "in'reasi- as the result of teady domestic
prices while foreign pri'cs have been dec-li-,n i-.






- 8 -


.le 3 shov,.s estimated su plies available for export and very tenta-
tive forecasts of net exports for the current season by the various surplus
r -ducir. countries. o factors which greatly cc:r licate forecasts this
year are universal Government activity in pressing sales and the lar-e
Southern Hemisphere crop, which means heavy shipments and increased ccmpeti-
tion for the months i.1.ediately ahead.

Table 3.- :ct exports, year beginning July 1, 1937, forecasts of
supplies available for export and net exports, year beginning
July 1, 1938

: Year beginning July 1____
1937 1938 -
Country net : Available for:Forecasted net
: exports : export l/ : exports
: Mil. bu. Mil. bu. Mil. bu.

:..ited States ...............: 100 2/ 250 100
Canada ......................: 09 225 124
:-.r:-.ntina ...................: 70 215) 295 )170
Australia ...................: 123 80) J
Danube countries ............: 56 105 90
Soviet Russia ..............: 38 40 40
Balancing item 3/ ..........: 18 25 20
Total 1/ ..............: 494 940 544

1/ Total supplies less probable dom::estic requirements and carry-over.
2/ Loan stocks not deducted.
3/ "Other, countries and any necessary balancing between shipments and re-
ceipts resulting from differences in time and accounting. Computed as
estimated total not imports loss exports accounted for.
4/ Total not imports, computed as net imports into European deficit countries
plus shipments to non-European countries.

Government aid to wheat producers is now universal

Wheat production and trade has been moving more and more under the
control or influence of the national Governments until now it is practiced
almost universal ly by both importing and exporting countries.

In irm.orting countries: Following the war, Governments in import-
ing countries affected wheat production and trade by increased import
duties, milling quotas, foreoin-exchange control, monopolies, irm, ort permits
and licenses, and special taxes and fees. As an outgrowth of the rcneral
rood crop outturns this year and the European political crises in September,
Governmental ctivit-y in European wheat trade has increased markedly,
until trad, is now dominated by political considerations.

Protection r.nd aid to European wheat producers has been increased so
that they will not suffer from the low world prices and that local pro-
duction -:ill be maintained and in some cases increased. Estonia is the
one .r'pean country at present which ap. ..rs to desire a curtailment of







wheat production and. is re' -rted to be encour-:-i- a shift 'fro-m. t back
to feed :-rains -after a 19>. cror outturn above c0.>estic rLqui :.. I
Italy, on the other hand, a new -c-l of production is no. in ic1tei, C.i.y
an increase to 9 million tons; the aver. -c for 1931- *'as round 7.3
million tons. Increased use of fertilizer and selected seed :.'ili i~obbly
feature in r.:.y hi -.er aver-.,-e. ..s a result of the big domesti. c cross in
Belgium and Denmark this yc -r, the mixir.- percentage for home-gron.r. :heat
has b-en increased; in Belgium it is re;--rted to be _-" percent for :'oveber
and probably '.: percent in December, while in Denmark the quota has recently
been set at 5c0 crcent. In S2..eden '-. percent home-grown wheat is required,
and in inl:rand 30 :crcent.

In ex-.:'rtin- countries:- As wheat prices have declined, the export. -
countries of Tu-ro'o as well as overseas exporters have adopted export
subsidy schemes so that producers would not feel the full pressure of the
world market situation.

In the Danube countries as well as in the Soviet Union, the wheat trade
is under cou.--.lete control of the various Governments. The -ar.ubian countries
move wheat into export effectively by bilateral treaties or agreements with
certain '.. -at-i.porting countries, particularly Germany and Italy.

In the U.ited States, the method used is for the F.:leral S.rr:lus
Commodities Corporation to purchase wheat from regular grain dealers and pro-
d1cers on mmestic markets and sell it to exporters at prices which will
enable United States wheat to maintain its relative position in world markets.
The subsidy .:aid on flour exports is based on the difference between the
domestic price of flour and prices in foreign markets at the time of sale.
These export aids in addition to other phases of the agricultural adjustment
programs have sup:ortc-i domestic prices above world levels. The costs of
the subsidy are met from funds made available under Section 32, Public No.
320, as a :..or.dd, and -.ore recently by Section 12, Fublic No, 461.

In Cn.aia the minimum price of rIo. 1 Northern Sprin' wheat was
established at :.o cents -e.r bushel, basis Fort william-Port Arthur, with
prices for lower grA-ies at proportional discounts. No. 3 :: rthern Spring
what :.*as set at 71 cents, which 1jrado is fairly comparable with Minneapolis
No. 1 Northern 3prir:. wheat, the United States loan value of which is 79
cents. It is estimated that the schedule of prices would net Canadian
.row.rs an av -c 0 of from 55 to 60 cents per bushel for'all classes and
grades. The handling of wheat has been conducted through r, :ular tra .i
channels with the Can-iiian '.'heat Board operating as the sole urc'...er from
gro.crs and *the sole seller to the trade for either domestic or export
purposes (with minimum riches above market i rices the Government has been
obli.-d to take all offerings). In this way wheat is sold at prices no
higher for domestic use than for export. The prc-rx-m is financed fr:m
general taxes.

In Ar:-:r.tina, a minimum internal price the equivalent of about 59-1/2
cents, basis z.aboard ports, has boon announced. The Acjentine l3cvernment
finances its losses through profits on transactions in foreign oec:ano.
r.:o official exc .:.;os arc provided an official exchange market and a
froo ,.ma-rket. ,h'neat oxi.orters are required to sell their bills of excha.ngc
to the Exchange Control Co.nmitteeo at the official rate of oxcha-nge and
the Committee then sells them to im.orters at a profit.





.-26 10 -
In Australia wheat producers will receive payments out of a fund obtained
by a special levy upon consumers of flour. A price equivalent to about 97 cents
has been fixed on all wheat domestically consumed as flour, and payments will
be allocated to gro::ers presumably on the basis of total acreage or production.
World prices w -ill prevail on wheat for e:-:port.


An article titled "Government Aid to Wheat Producers" has
been reprinted from the ::cvember issue of "Foreign Agriculture",
and copies are available upon request to the Bureau of Agricultural
Economics, 'ashington, D. C. In this article the causes for the
evolution of aid to wheat producers and the probable effects of
existing measures have been analyzed.


World prices af-focted by Southern Hemisphere offerings

Wheat prices in foreign markets, where not fixed, rose in late November
and early December, with some improvement in demand and light Southern Hemi-
sphere offerings. Following the week ended December 10, reduced demand,
increased offerings of Southern Hemisphere wheat, and prospects of a large
crop in Ar :.tina, however, caused prices to decline and thereby lose a part
of the gain made since the middle of November. Table 4 shows cash prices of
imported wheat at Liverpool and table 6 futures at Liverpool, Winnipeg, and
Buenos Aires.
With the Southern Hemisphere harvest in full swing and heavy shipments
not far distant, offerings of Argentine and Australian wheat are becoming an
ir-ortant price factor. The larger-than-expected production in Argentina
will cause world shipments to be especially heavy durin- the next quarter.

Table 4.- Prices of imported wheat at Liverpool

SHard wheats Soft wheats
: o S *
Date : (Gulf) : Argen- Canada : U.S. : Austra-
(Friday) : Ho. 2 : tine No. 3 : Russian (pacific): lian
: Yellow : Barusso Manitoba ; White : /
:EHI. ..inter: : i/ : :
: Corts 3 Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
1938
Oct. 7 68.9 --- 73.8 59.9 71.9 79.4
14 69.6 --- 74.7 61.4 71.0 74.7
21 : 64.7 --- 75.9 --- 72.2 76.3
28 --- 62.6 72.2 --- 70.0 72.2
I:ov. 4 55.0 58.8 68.4 --- 67.7 68.4
10 55.6 61.6 69.7 --- 63.8 66.7
18 : -- -- 72.0 --- 61.0 66.2
25 59.5 2/ 65.3 74.4 --- --- 66.7
Dec. 2 59.2 2/ 65.8 76.0 --- 62.8 ---
9 : 2/65.6 --- 76.6 --- 64.4 69.3
16 : I/63.5 2/ 62.6 75.5 64.2
_/ ?r. ir :wheat qualifying for Imp.-rial Preference is exempt from duty
(proximating 6 cents per bushel) under Ottawa Agreements of November 1932 .
2/ Rosafe. j/ No. 1 Dark Hard Winter. / No. 2 Dark Hard Winter.








.:'-26 II -

TIC I iTIC .. T ATI

BA) CK I. _}T.e carry-over of wieat in the iretd : ',it
for the 5 c.rs 1)24- v ra Nd about ii million u.hel:;.
Stocks which h b.: an to accumulate in 19 reached 1t record
peak of about 375 million bushels in 193. .our s:r.l '.*:eat
crops, however, reduced stocks on a comparable basis to about
100 million bushels by July 1, 1937. Domestic disa Ipearnce
dur:.. the 10 years 19:.-37 averaged about 6.. million bush is.

.: ...tic wheat prices from the spring of 1933 to that of
1937 were unusually high in relation to world market prices,
because of four small domestic crops caused largely by ab-
nor:...-.lly low yields per acre. During 193I-37 both world and
doi':.stic prices advanced sharply as a result of increased
dem..and and the smallest supplies in recent years.

: rly in the 1937-'3 season, domestic and foreign wheat
prices. ose sharply, but later declined with increased -u- ply
pros.-ucts, slow European demand, and a falling commodity price
level. Prices received by producers for the 1937-38 season
av.r..-.:,i 9.6 cents ccnpared with 103 cents in 1936-37.

United states production estimate revised downward

The -.neral crop report issued Dedi.:ber *1-9 'revised the production
estimate for all whoe:t from the previously publishcd-estimate of 940,229,0C)
bushels to 93:,601,00 bushels, which is about.6.-r:cent above tale 1937 crop
of 875,676,'::0 bushels and nearly 24 percent above the 10-year (1927-36)
average production of 752,891,000 bushels. The yield per harvested acre of
all wheat in 1933 is estimated at 13.3 bushels, compared with 13,6 bushels
in 1937, and 13.5 bushels, the 10-year avtra*-e. Acreages seeded and har-
vested, yield ..r seeded acre and production by kinds of wheat for this year,
last year and the 10-year avera -e are shown in tables 11 and 12.

With a carry-over of 154 million bushels and production of 931 million
bushels, supplies total 1,085 million bushels. Domestic disa tearance
is still estimated. at about 700 million bushels, which loc-ves about 385
million bushels for export during the season and carry-over next July.

The estimated supply and distribution of wheat by classes rc.rn-v i un-
ch-nged from that published in the .u-ust issue of "The -.1.oat Situation"
except for revisions in the production estimates. These revisions are shown
in table 5.

The kinds of wheat exported have necessarily been governed by im-
porters' :t..,:_-.ds. Hard red winter and white wheat, as is custo:;:-r;.', h.ive
constituted the bulk of our c.::.orts this season. Importing countries use
considerable hard wheat to mix with their domestically produced wheats to
produce a flour .of greater strength. On the other hand, because the









domestic production in deficit countries is preder.ihrntly of soft wheats,
there is only a limited import demand for soft wheat and exports of such
v:heat have been m:>de largely with Government aid. As usual only s:aall
quantities of h rd r:* spring wheat and durum 2/ have been exported this
year,

;-:. quantity of ::heat under loan on December 15 totaled 59 million
bushels, according to an announcement by the Commodity Credit Corporation,
i:o distribution by classes has,been made by the Corporation, but Zlate
figures broken ,own on the basis of production by classes suggest that the
distribution of w'.heat so held is approximately as follows: Hard red s, ring
about 22 million bushels, hard red winter about 21 million bushels, white
10 million bushels, durum 4 million bushels a-.d soft red winter 2 million
bushels.

T-ble 5.- Estimated prospective wheat supplies anddistribution
by classes for year beginning July 1, 1938

: .Hard : Soft : Hard : : :
Item : red : red : red : Durum : 'Vhite : Total
:winter : winter: spring:
:Mil.bu. Mil.bu. Mil.bu. Mil.b'u. Mil.bu. Mil.bu.

Carry-over July 1, 1933 (old :
wheat) S....................: 60 37 31 5 21 154
Production ...................: 380 237 161 42 103 931
Total supply .............: 448 274 192 47 124 1,085
Prospective utilization ......: 275 210 11 35 65 700
Total available for carry-over:
and export .................: 173 64 77 12 59 385



Winter wheat acreage reduced 18 percent

The area of winter wheat sowun in the fall of 1938 for harvest in
1939 in the United States is .estimated at 46,173,000 acres. This is 18 per-
cent below the 5o,355,OCC acr s sown in 1937 and 20 percent below, the record
acreage seeded in the fall of 1936, but it is still about 1 percent above
the avora -. acreage so:wn to ;winter wheat during the 10 previous years. In
most of thu im ortant producing States the acr.-' ;e sown to winter wheat is
substantially below the acrea sown in 1936 and in 1937.

2, .i :rt'irie.is for ex ratingg durum are limited this year as a result of an
r. tc net surplus in western coditorranian countries, which constitute the
important consumerrs of durum products. Algeria and Tunisia together have a
deficit of about 4 .dilion bushels, Italy about 1 million, but :r.nce has a
surplus of about 9 million.bushels. Estimated production and not imports or
ex-ort2 of durum ..heat are shown in tables 9 and 10.






- 1 -


In Indiana, Illinois -and .:-ts of ad~oinin at s th. iry
terfered with sc injs % .:- the acr -.-c is belo: avvr- -c. r2 in : ::r,
however, some..hat above avers.e in ~r--.as, Abraska and South :rkota .r
recent summer drot. -hts have caused a shift from corn to w.intr .h-t; ':c
fr:n Colorado into Montana where winter wheat -:.v an unusuaiiy ,od0 ld
in 191,. Acra o als oexceeds avera ge in a less i:-., ort ant roduci .'.
exto:. .?h..: from Kentucky and HIcrth Carolina southward.

Ine condition of winter wheat on December 1 was 72 percent of norm:rl
compared w~ith 76 :.-rcent a year earlier and the 10-year (1926-35) aver1c _.;
80 7rrccnt. In most of the important winter wheat producin. area the re-
ported condition ,.as below last year an.1 below the avcr:--c. Conditions were
generally o:rest in the Great Plains area from Nebraska southward. In this
area early moisture conditions were more favorable than in recent years, re-
sulti..- in somewhat better sub-soil conditions. 7ith subsequent dry .-eathcr,
however, surfacr moisture was becoming exhausted by :-c-c.ber 1. In parts of
the Central Plains area much late seeded wheat had not yet 7,-rminated. Soft
winter *.hcat in the Atlantic States and in some East North Central C-ates
shows a better condition than in 1937, particularly in Illinois, Missouri,
and Iowa. In the Pacific Northwest and in California the condition of winter
wheat is close to average.

Bas.-' on the past relationship between December 1 condition and yield
per seeded acre, with some allowance for the probable effect of weather condi-
tions during the past :ummer and fall, the indicated production of winter
wheat in 1939 is about 485,000,000 bushels. It is expected that abandonment
of sown acreage will be above averar-:- in 1938 and will probably be between
20 and 25 percent.

No information is yet available on the probable reduction in s-rin,,
wheat so-Ldinr-s. If an 18 percent reduction is made, as is indicated for
winter wheat, the total seeded acrc-e- would be about 19.3 million acres.
Average yields per seeded acre on such an acreage would result in a spring;
wheat crop of 195 million bushels. A spring wheat crop of this size together
with a winter wheat production of 485 million bushels, would :. an a total
crop of about 680 million bushels. This would approximate the lo-year
(1928-37) average domestic wheat disappearance of 683 million bushels and
permit the large carry-over to be reduced by approximately the amount of
our exports.

Domestic prices osu-rortei by export sales

'T,heat prices in the United States fluctuated within narrow limits most
of the last half of November, with markets seasonally dull, but rose in
early D,.c--r.iber following the announce--c-nt that c:xport sales of 25 million
bushels had been made to the United Kingdom. Smaller domestic marketing ?.r.-
unfavorable moisture for winter wheat were also strengthening factors.
Domestic markets averaged generally 3 to 4 cents higher for the week cnicli
December 17 than for the week ended November 19. Durum wheat prices sh-;'.cd
particular strength averaging about 6 cents higher as between these 2 weeks.

Ch-.nges in domestic prices in the next few months r..ay be :xp>ctLd to
be dominr.ted largely by the s-.me factor which influence prices at Liver;'col,
with rx:,ort sales of United States wheat also an important price f ctor.


*T-26





- 14 -


Table 1 .-Avo r-.- c1c.-i.- prices of December wheat futures,
sp cifi d markets eand dates, 1937 znd 193,?


: 'innipcg : viverpool : Buenos : Chicago : Kninsas ::.ir eaolis
Date : : / : Aires :__ Citvy
.. 17 :193. :IT :13 1938 .3 1 .l938 .!97 .3193 :1937 :19
:Ce r-s Cens Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents C-r.is Cents


Sept. :123.9
Oet. :120.0
Nov. :112.3


61.5 130.2
59.2 12S.7
7.9 120.5


:ov. 5111.1 57.3 125.3
12 112. -7.4 122.4
19:114.- -'.9 120.3
2 :111. 57.9 117.1
Dec. 3:114.3 -.0 114.7
1 ..119.6 60.4 115.4
17 :,5.6 0o.o 114.9
High 125.6 o.4 13o4
Lo..: i/:111.0 57.3 11".7


71.4
0C.7
62.5


62.0 110.2 250.6
62.0 106.7 253.6
63.0 1io.6 55.2
62.7 104.0 52.5
63.5 lo4.1 51.0o
66.1 106.0 51.3
65.8 106.2 49.1
62.2 65.9 4/,.8s
62.0 4/104.0 J/49.1


-. --- io6.6
--- 100.0
.-- .- 90.7


91.2
89.5
91.5
90o.6
93.0
96.1
95.0
103.4
89.5


64.6
65.0
63.3

64.o
64.0
64.o
'.2
62.4
64.4
64 .0
65.5
62.2


101.4
97.0
*'.3


Ss.5
86.6
F-11.2
88.8
90.4
93.0
91.8
99.3
S6.6


7.9 114.7
.1.1 10c8.
59.4 ,-.6


59.9 98.8
59.8 98.5
59.7 1C,:.5
:'.6 97.2
59.7 99.0
62.0 101.4
61.8 99.8
62.0 110.9
58.6 -, .5


1J Conversions at noon buying rate of exc>.r.g. .
2/ November futures.
/ O't -ber 3 to December 17, 1938, and correspondi'g dates 1957.
4/ November t ad December futures.


Table 7.-' :igphted average cash price of .:heat, spr-cified markets and
dates, 1937 and 1938


:All classes: No. 2 : No. 1 :No. 2 Hard :


No. 2 : 'ectern


:and grades :Hard "i. ter:Dk.N.Sprirn,: Amber Durum:Red :"inter : white e
D'Lte :six Cmir to:Knsas City: inmeapolis:Jinneapolis: St. Louis :Senttle 1/
3 _:l57_ ''38_ :1937':l93g .i79 ';:l957 *;.l935:197 .1U93j:193U I
onathl-:C_ nts Crts Cents Cents Cents 'Cnts Cents C:c.'s C -C-is Cc-ts Cents Cents
rs rt. :1 -.7 0 .3 1)9.5 o5.7 133.5 7".2 110.1 68.9 109.2 67.1 95.9 2.7
Oct. :103.7 65.3 10o.o 64.7 126.8 73.3 10.3 65.5 104.0 68.5 90.3 63.2
Nov. : 93.5 p4.9 94.2 *3.3 115.3 73.1 100.2 64.9 93.2 65.- 83.: 63.3
Sek :


eroded-
w. 5: 94.0
12: ).9
19: 9.0
P2: 93.4
- -. 3: 95.2
10: 7.5
17: .5.
-1.-. :106.0
Lo:v /: 90.


64.4
64.
65.2
65.0
65.9
6.23
.3
64.


95.o
92.5
94.9
94.0
35,.4
o .
107.4
92.5


63.7
63.5
64.2
63.3
64.9
6.93
66.8
66.9
3.3.


116.4
115.8
11 .1
108.9
111.6
121..3
116.1
128.9
];.:.9


71.1 99.3
72.9 9;.2
73.2 101.9
73.3 101.2
74.3 105.1
77.2 101.9
77.6 104.4
77.6 110.4
71.1 96.2


62.7
65.1
64.6
,65.8
67.9
69.7
70.4
70.4
62.7


25.4
S5.5
93.0
93.2
95.6
95.4

107.4
85.5


66,1
66.0o
66.7
[,.0
66.5
69.0
69.:
69.0
65.0o


.85.2
81.8
84. 7
-:4.S
85.3
1 -.0
85.0
91.8
81.8


63.0
63.3
63.4
63.4
63.9
63.8

63.9
62.2


I/ ,kly ;.v r. of daily cash quotations, basis No. 1 -..c,.l.
1/ 'tobtr S to Decumber 17, 1935, and correspo:-lin,- dates for 1937.


6( .6
66.4
66.8
65.9
66.8
68.8
68.8
68.8
65.5


wS-







- "5 -


Table ..- c-tir.ated production of s.het in s '.,ificdz cou.trieQ,
to 19";-


: 1935-36 : 19 -.7 : 19,7-


S1,000
: bushels

::rth America:


United States .,........ ...:
Canada ..... ... ......... .:
Mexico .... ............. .
Total (3) ..............
Europe:
En-iland and W'ales ..........:
Scotland .. ... .............:
Northern Ireland ...........:
Ireland .. ....... .........
Norway ... ...... .... .... .:
e .eden ... .. ..... .........:
Denr-ark ....................
UItherl ans '..." ..*. ..:
Belgium ....................:
Prance .a ....... ........ :.
a .n ................ .........:

ortugal -.................0
taly .......... ... ....... :
w-n tzerland ...,,..........:
3er-ai y r. -. n.* :
Austria ........... ....... :
Czechoslovakia .
Greece .... .. .. ... .. .... :
Poland ................ ....:
Lithuania ...............:
Latvia
Estonia
Finland ....................:
Malta ....................:
Albania .. ..................:


-:6 344
281,935
10,712
- 918,991

60,592
4,4'0
362
6,686
1,869
23,610
14,672
16,653
16,101
-c4.950
157,986
1,022
22,.092
C52,760
5,974
171,488
15,509
62,095
27,180
73,884
10,093
6,520
2,267
4,233
179
1,554


Total (26) ..............: 1,274,811
Bulgaria o. ... .............. : 47,925
'un:gary .24................. 24,224
-Romania- ......... ......... ..: 96,439
Yu-oslavia .................: 73,100
Total (4) ...............: 301,688
Total Duhrope (3:) ......: 1,'7,,49


1 ,0c D
bushels


626,766
219,218 .
13,606 .
.859,590o


51,445
3,547
273
7,839
2,094
21,635
11,266
15,428
a16,153
,254,618
121,492
1,071
8,651
224,570
4,470
*ro2,66o
*14,037
55,23
19,537
7.2-,357
8,027
S5.272
2,433
5,259
2 ,
1,106
1,097,061
6o,350
87 ', '
128,717
107,422


3:4,278


1,00C
bushels


875,6 76
182,41'
5 C0,5
1,o60,672

52,005
4.,1 :
164

2,497
25,720
13,522
12,555
*15,55o
257,833
110,200
1,206
14,540
296,282
6,184
164,12:0
14,470
51.266
.-,373
-r
7C.774
3,109
6,302
2,76.3
7.665
326
1,636
1, 179, l~1
64,9 1
72,158
13 153
86,238
361, 464


3I .
6 2




2/ ,
2,614






3 15,



17
S34',31
1 77
69, _


2/ 5,"?
2,614





5/ 7,-119
15.1 ;
17, -6
4/ 341,: o
i/ 95, "
1, 775
i/ 1.,.:
5/ :?7,319

198,_'4
I 161,5:1
65,7:8
35,9 4

9,072
7,(46
2, ",,8
7,973
2 :6
1/ 1,5::

61,159
95.,36
181,511

43',4 43
i,7=,-0,26"


S1,481,3 l"4',: -7


Contin:-,i -


) 5-S


w ''
...a- "







Es timat ed
T:.ble 8.-, production of wheat in specified countries, 1935-36 to 193S-39
Continued -


Count r:--


: 1935-36 : 1936-37 : 1937-38 : 1938-39


1,000


NOR- 7. H-1:I SPHERE Cont'd :
Africa:
Algeria ............ .... ....
Morocco ........... ....
Tunisia
E- t .. .. .. ...... :
*Total (4) ..... .... :
Asia:
Palestine ....* ........ *.. *:
Syria and Lebanon .........:
India ....... ... ...... ... :
Ja -. e ..... .... eee.. e,:
Chosen ,. ......... .......
Turkey .....................:


bushels-


33,532
20,036
16,902
43,222
113,692

3,834
10,520
363,216
48,718
9,747.
92,641


1 ,000
bushels


29,774
12,234
8,083
45,700
95,791

2,795.
15;704
351,680
45,192
8,095
141,582


1,000


1,000


bushels bushels


33,106
.20,895
.17,637
45,376
117,014

.,4,682
17,227
364,075
50,410
. 10,242
132,985-


. 32,066
23,883
13,962
45,933
115,844

1/ 4,000
23,368
-402,453
45,244
10,333
160,424


Total (6) ...............: 536,676 565,048
Total 43 countries ......: 3,145,858 3,001,766
Estimated Northern
Hemisphere total, ex- ;
cluding Russia and China:. 3,225,000 3,067,000
SOUTHP.: HEMISPHERE
Argentina ....................: 141,462 249,193
Australia ....................: 144,218 151,390
Union of South Africa ........: 23,709 16,077
Estimated world total .
excluding Russia and
China. ..................: 3,601,000 3,540,000


579, 621 645,822
3,306,032 3,840,832


3,372,000 o 3,914,oco


184,801
10",018
10,157


3,817,000


315,993
6/ -140,oc000o
17,407


4,448,000


1/ Approximation.
2/ Estimate of the London office of the Bureau,
3./ ;.timate of the Berlin office of the Bureau.
4/ Estimate of the Paris office of the Bureau.
_/ The Paris office of the Bureau regards this official estimate as being too
high.
6/ Approximate average of estimates of various States and opinion of.Comi:mon-
wealth Bureau, as reported by International Institute of Agriculture.
-- Production figures refer to the year of harvest. Harvests of the northernn
:is.)hucre countries are combined with those of the Southern Hemis-hero
which i:...meliately follow; thus for 1938-39 the c-rop harvested in the
Northern He;isphere countries in 1930 is combined with the Southern
Hemrisphere harvv.t which begins late in 1938 and ends early in 1939.


Cc,rn iled fr-.-, official data except as otherwise noted.


YS-26


-16 -







ws-


*'ble 91 ~ Lum x prr>tior. i r se t14, o "un- ti .r
I0 ?vit r.x i i.r'n,


Count ry


93-35e


: Million
*I.-


united d 3 t s .... ... ....
Car. d.a ........................

Cnnfd ................:
:ctal r)_li States -ri


Italy ................. ...... :
Morrcco ......................:
Algeria ......................
T u-ni sia ...................... :
Total It-ly .ni l:Trth :
Africa ...............:


22.9
9.8


111.3


193 6


Mi 711 i ~) '.
LWh~1


15.3


Million
OUc_? 7S


? 7.
30.7


393 6 2 .4 "-5 636


57.4
8.5
18.7
4.4*


89.0


75.0
12.7
- *5
10.3


1O 5


1/ In Argentinr, In..i~, .nii n-z1si, where durum is alsc an important
estimate of durum production is made.
2/ Y-:-r 1935 only.


21.8
2/17.8


T>.ble 10.- uru-.. wheat estimate'- net imports or net e.T.-rrts (-)
in selected countries, 1939 with comparisons I/


YePr beginning August 1


Country


: vA-.-r- e : : : 1937-38
:1931-32 to: 1935-36 : 1936-37 Ireli i-r- r
1935-36 : : '


19 ~39
forecast


: millionn Million Million Million Million


r ...............: 11.9 10 3 9.3 9.8 9
It ,-" .................: 2.8 1.0 -1.1 .8 g / 9
Moroceo ............... : -0-.7 .2 .8 0
Al1Eria ................: *. 8.4 -".5 -6.4 -3.7
Tunisia ..............:: .5 -1.6 I -.7
Total ............ 3 9
/ Estimr'.ti by P-ris office of the :nu of kricultural economic.
/ et e:xrrts.


Mill Ic
*~.1-~__17


L1.6
.0


80.8
14.7
22.0
7.7


crop, no







- 18 -


Ts I 11 .-


Estimated United States wheat acre-.- harvested,
and production, 1937 and comparisons


Acreage harvested. Production
C r : A-.r -e: 1937 1938 :Average : 1937 : 1938
: 1927-36: crop : cr:p : 1927-36: cr.)p : crop
: 1,000 1,000 ,000 1,000 1,00 1,000
: acres acres acres bushels hb'- 1 z 1 ush.els

-: /. _/..........: 3,620 2,786 3,545 40,085 27,971 4o,445
Other Spring 2/...: 14,424 14,658 16,965 166,410 161,881 203,719
All Spring .....: 18,044 17,444 20,510. 206,495. 189,852 24h4,164
Winter / .........: 37,281 46,978 49,711 546,396 685, 824 6?6,637
All wheat ......: 55,325 64,422 70,221 752,891 875,676 930,801

I M-rth Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota. '
2 Includes durum in States other than North D-kota, South Dakota, and
Minnesota.
]/ Sown previous fall.



Table 12.- Estimated United States wheat acre.-- seeded I yield
per seeded acre, 1937, and comparisons


Acrea'-e seeded : Yield per seeded acre
Crcp Averr e : 1937 : 1938 :Avor--re : 1937 : 1938
:1927-36 : crop : crop :1927-36 : cr:p : crop
: 1,000 1,000 1,000
acres acres a cr Cs ?B, Bushel s Bushels

-:rum 4I.........: 4,192 3,214 3, 56 8.5 8.7 10.5
Other Spring /...: 17,033 20, 02 19 659 9.5 8.0 .10,4
All Snring .....: 22. 5 2, LL6 23 )15 9.3 8.1 10.4
Winter 3/.........: 4,644 57,656 56,355 12.0 11.9- 12.2
All wheat .....: 67,79 T 1 ,072 79, 70 11.2 10.8 11.7

Se table 11 fcr footnotes.




















i '. :. ...
i 'r i. i 1. .t .'




In Cani da .. . : 269 I' 1
in Unit ehd Sttes ......I: ?.5 '4 ;I


Argentina .... ......... : 22 1 1
Australia ...............: 21 11 5 14

Tot al ................. : ? .745 16

Unit :. -loiom port
stocks ............ : 9 7 11 19

Stocks afloat to:
Unit i .- ....... : 19 19 1
Contin nt .............: 6 14 13 11
Cr -.rs ................: 6 10 b

Total ...............: 36 46 4_

_GTrand total .........: 3 8__1 211 1 -

1/ C :-;y-ovcr at the t -ir..i. i of the year (Canada, July 21; -.:" rntina,
J:.' .;,': 1; Australia, December 1 of the previous year) plus production,
minus domestic utilization for the year, minus monthly experts to date.







' "--26 { \ -.
-&b :.- -

able 14.-'.:orts of wha'at and wheat flour :"'r the United
ll I i19b o nd 198 t

(Includes flour killed in bond :,":',: foreign wYhe-at)


, at


: U1,s 0
: bush. Is


July-C. .....
".ie0k ended i/. :
Nov. ..... :
12 ..... :
19 .....


26
0. 3
10


17,35F3

1, 184
1,939
1 ,280
936
2,211
1,690


7Jh, at flour


1,000
bushels


1957
1,000
barrels


1,548


717
387
2,092
458
538
J/ 110


63
355
62
72
144
160


1938
1,C )
barrels


'"..at including
flour

1937 12?8


1,000
bushes ls


1,741 24,.59


93
84
51
81
57
2/151


1,480
2,103
1,571
1,274

2,442


1 ,000
bushels

35,-36

1,154
782
2,232
3 59
606
2/ ,:


Corm ili 1'ro>: reports of the Departmcnt of Commerce.

_/ Data for total cxrorts from the United States w:v :.ks arc not available.
7:. s< data are the total of exports through 16 of the principal ports.
2/ Freliminary.



Table 15.-Shil nts of ~heat, including flour fro.- principal exporting
countries, sp;eified dates, 1.,7 and ir27

: Argentina : Australia : Danube :North A-. rica
Prd 1937 : 1978 : 1937 : 198 : 1937 : 193 : 1967 : 1938
: 1,000 1,0(0 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,"0 1,000
:bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels


7,464 52,280 10,776


Y;eek ended-
Ncv. 5 ...... :
12 ...... :
19 ...... :
26 ...... .
7 ...... :
10 ......
17 .......


216
0
1,012
128
368
408
1,068


1,012
900
712
680
1,116
453
996


1,764
1,900

972
2,872
1,476
2,068


496
568
584
1,536
608
1,644
1,693


594
2,224
912
632
1,160
976
176


848

2,2f56
1,672
2,624
1,504
1,136


4, -.
5,368
5,360
5,304
6,360
35,592
4,128


6,192
6,488
5,992
6,312
4,688
2,123
1,658


ihrIll's Corn Trade 'ws.


July-Oct. ......: 13,676 20,124 21,112 30,752 17,264









iY ~
T ~ B .-Mov rn r~ (f *~h~ ~-v' ~ ~( ~r ~
C~>~ t21 2, -3


C ount


United -artos ]J

Argntr.ina ......
Australia ......


S:-oslvi a .......

- _.7r. ria .......


'-^l.I- Tot rl


^ili o -!3 bosh_

23,
15,~

76,577 7 62,
1037, 3. -. '.

14,644 27, I
72S 17,-
6,3)2 3- ,
91 7, 2


T : Jul 1 to'I,)
J ,"1I' : w __


>2S
)77

.70
T?
2 E


?73


British :r L-:a ..a J. ..... .
Tot ..... 88


.:orth A.- rica 2/
Cro:r c. [ / .....
-r.ited 3Sates s/
Arg: -.,ina ......
Australia ......
F.ussia. .........


7, ,
..r. 137,3)2



69,670 19,072
3,34



3`15 .c-


1,




99 19
lC~ -.
2,994k
3,332
10, KT-
1 2J
__1,920 :


r


h-" t "" -.. .
:" OT 1 :- "'k .nded 1 3 J~
: 37-37 :19 733 Dc. 3 :"Dc. 10 :Dee. 17 :0
1,0C. 1, 1,0- ) 1 ,CO0 1,000
b..shcls ,uel bushrls bushels bushJels
231,2 1 720 4,6 2,123 1,
: 213, 9 4,. 3,327 1,914 ---
10,3 3,51 bo S20 --
S14,7 3 66,920 1,116 53996
105, 36 127,5 D 608 1,644 1,6 3
42,248 552 264 -


1
2 "



i, e y U>


130 3 : -.



l; 1 Dec .21

1,000 1,00
)1h is bush3s7
,7,20 14,;,
. / '"
'30, -t /33, 05
16.36 25,9 93
33,o96 37,s7l
29,712 37,128


Dwr.ube and
Bulgaria 6/ .: 65,544 37,320 3,624 1,5o4 1,136 23, 9-
British India :7 11 65 19'67L 0 0 0_ 7
Total / .. : ^-^^1- .... ,:;_,~ '-:
Tot-.1 European :
s i .- ints ..: 24.-7: 7,2
Total ex- _..ro- :/
p aL shir.:-.-.t3 : 127,192 99,4C" 2,144 37.3 :"'

1/ Includes flour u:i'led i: bond from foreign w ieat.
2/ Broomhall's Corn Tr-.je Ie.s.
V/ Official exports as report to d.te, supplemented by reported .'oekly
clearances of ':heat, :.d esti %.tes of flour shirm,-nts.
_' Thro..h D.- ::mner 10 only.
5/ officiall reports recoei.' i from 1 principal ports only.
6/ Black :-'. s.ir-'ents only.
j- Official.
Total :f' trade fi.-.r s inc ud rth America as reported ':. Proomhal
.does n_,t inc .id. items 2 -m-d 3.
9/ :.-. --mber 3 c- y.


19,384




,j
45,912


l's '-.*


7;,-*







- 22-


':..LD R'.i PRODUCTION IN 1938

The wor'l production of r'ye in 1933 is indicated to be about 18 percent
above :.'t of 1937, and is the l'r--st on record. The production in the 31 coun-
tries reporti-:..- (table 18) is estimated at ..,058 million bushels, -eomcared with
the 1937 crop of 595 million bushels in the' ime countries.

U:.TED STATES RYE SO7W'T FOR HARVEST IN 1939

The acre of rye so.'n for all purposes in the fall of 1938 is --timsated
at 7,171, ,.. acres, which is an increase of 7.5 percent over the 0,671,C00 acr-'s
shown in the fall of 1937. Increases in sown acreage were quite general through-
out the co-..,'ry. The only important rye producing State to show a decrease from
last year was 7"isconsin, for which a decline of 19 percent is shown. Increases
of 5 percent and 6 percent, respectively, are shown for North and South Dakota.
_-e total seeded acreage in 1936 was 7,371,000 acres. A considerable acr.e-.e of
rye is sonr for purposes other than grain production, such as cover crop, ha.:,
and pasture.

The condition of rye on December 1, is reported at 76 percent of normal
compared with 74 percent on December 1 last year, and the 10-:y ar ('1952-35)
avers-. of 31 percent. The December 1 condition was ahove last year in most of
the Northern Great Plains area and the ;. a east of the Rockies. This was partial-
ly off:. + by lower condition in much of the Eastern Corn Belt and in the Pacific
Coast States.

T?. acre --. of rye clIt for grain depends to a cc:n.7idorable extent on prices
before harvest and availability of feed supplies. In 193' growers harvested
3,979,000 acres or 60 percent of their seeded acres, while over the 6-year
(1931-36) period they harvested 52 percent. If growers should harvest 52 percent
of the 7,171,000 acres seeded this fall (3,729,00C0/.)1 1if avorE,: yields were
obtained, it would mean a production of about 45,000,000 bushels which is the
amount of our domestic disr.ppearr-nce duri_- the past three seasons (table 17).

CANADIAN RY. SCO1';: FOR HARVEST IN 1939
The sowings of fall rye in Canada for harvest in 1939 are estimated at
59(-,000 acres, an increase of 2 percent, compared with the acre.- e sown a year
earlier. The condition on October 31 was 91 percent of aver-.ce, compared with
<4 percent on the same date in 1937.

Table 17.-Rye: Supply and distribution, United States, 1935-38

Item !~3 -r : : 1 b-" : 0 h: -
:1_t eC0_b0.0.b lJ.. 1 L bls]_. l00 bush.


Stocks Jul 1 1/ ............: 11, 22,.. 5
:. : c..tion ...................: 8,597 23,319 49, '-)
I-. -,rts ........................._ 2 266 3_63 _. ... ...
Total sup. ply ......... ,, .
r- ........ .................... .9 o,57S
S-3..'cks June 3 1 ...... .. : 22, '. -'"C-. ...

1I Includ ~: stocks on farms as of June 1 (available only b.-irimng
and only for June 1) plus commercial stocks as of July 1.
2/ L.ss thVn '-,) bushels.


9,039'
55,039


with 1935










7"1 e 1 ;: -- .t .1 T ..
* U A, .* '. 0 ., ., .- l ^


Count ry : :. ;. .t.:.' : 1 .'. : 1 --5

-A:~

.t ) . ..
2 2
......L- kA:
U~ te < at .... ...


1" .. .. ..
CzeThoslcv kia .....:



S. ni ............. :
stonia . .





Ireland ............ :
Italy ..............
Latvia .............
,Lit' e -::ia .......... :

Netherlands ........:
Nerway ............. :

Portugal ...........
;. .. .. ............
e . ...
^itzerland ........
.tal ( ) .......
E -. qria ...........
-.:1-.;ary ............
-tL.ar.la ............
Y'at-oslavia .........
T .I (4) ........
Al!-eria ............ :
AP rt.ntina .......... :


11,17



13 ,7'2
29,371

S4,416
2, 1-




25, '1
452
18,311
483
260,409:
4,635
19,245
16,902
1,2 :5
- ,6-'-
7,767
28,650
12,724
771



6,023


14,C59
,48





2,150
- 7,

18,610
1,654
69
5,204
11,260

449
18,77.
425
:. 0,536
3,466
18,053
13,8 R8
1,077
7 -.,644
38,188
-,114
61 ,142



9
7, '. 0


.*, 7,0


,119

16, "


5,701


57, 594

18,928
443
221 ,35
4 r.
19,61"
1G,: :.0
1,296
-.-. ,161
C) I35
29,<

17,769
8,243
%-m ---
r-, (-*
2" -


S6,1







3/ 16,-





-72
-. ,>-
473
272, 4 ',

l/ 16,' .i




-8 ,3 15

50,747

9.-'"

72
11,614


: .rkey ....... ...- 17 674 64 ___ 21:'7
T-tal (31) ........: 12< ,: "1 8 3,093 .'14,19 1 .: -,419
C1". led :''.-c:. officia'1 -:ta, expert as otherwise noted. Production fiu'cres
refer tc the -- ar of harvest. harvests of the northern Hemisphere coun-
tries are coribincd with those of tIe Southern '.i -sphere wno1h ine ..ately
follow: t>.s, for 1.-.--39 toie rop harvest- in the "rthern -*:.: s: h'.-re
countries in l'.-- is coi.bined with the Southern Hemi-'-- re harvest which
"-'i .. I'.t- in 19:." a en ds early in 1." .
_/ .-tir:-ite of the0 erlin o" "-ice of the Bureau of .7.*"i cultural 7 onomriep.




UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA

3 1262 08861 8292




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