Wheat situation

LI: STATES -EP7.!: C ?- A? _-.-
?-'r 'u of Agricultural Economics
W -. -:on

WS-24 October 197:'

T H E W' '.:E A T C I T U A T I 0 1I




Chnnes:, in wheat prices dnirir- the next few months -.e e -r--cte- o ie-.

lar.ly upon '.-'..-ies in crop rr'.-pects in Ar.-:r.tina and Australia, r--'rts on

the area sown and. prc.ress of the United States winter whealt crop, and 'enral

business conditions.. Rainfall is needed in the wheat areas of k:.:tralia nnd

moisture supplies are below aver.--e in Argentina. In the United States rain

is needed in nearly the entire wheat belt, and ur-:ently so over mount of the

western portion. Sonr- further improvement in the genor"l business situation

is expected during the next few months.

World wheat production for 1935-39 is now estimated at 4,365 million

bushels, the lar-est on record. This is louit 20 million bushels r.cre than

the estimate' made a month ago, and about 525 million bushels greater than the

1937-35 harvest. Production in the Northern Hemisphere countries is estimat-.d

at about 510 million bushels more than last year, and prospects in Argentina

and Austrnlia are for an increase of about 15 million bush--ls.

With world stocks on July 1 estimnat.- at 595 million bushels, which is

about 75 million more than a year earlier, total supplies are approximately

4,960 million bushels, or about 600 million greater than a y',-r ago. Net

exports from Soviet Russia .~rmy possibly approximate 35 million bushels. With

low prices and. ab'undnt suprnlies, disr'.'rarnce durir- the present marketing

season may approximately 3,S30 million bushels. On the basis of these figures,
*All references to world. -d 17orth.-rn Hemisphe.re r'-nnrlies, production and
disappearance exclude Soviet Rucsia a.i China, but include net e--r.orts from
Soviet Russia.







WS-24 2 -

the carry-over in July 1979 would be e-.pcted to amount to about 1,165

million bushels. T>: record c-rry-over, which occurred in 1933, was about

l,lF million bushels.

Tctal United States sunplies are now indicated to be 1,094 million

:ucwls, consist '- of a July 1 carry-over of 154 million bushels and the

trec, estimated at 940 million bushels. If disappearance approximates the

700 million bushels last seo!cn and exports total 100 million, the carry-

over on July 1, 1939, will be close to 300 million bushels. This compares

with the record carry-over in 1933 of about 378 million bushels and the 5-year,

1930-34, high level of about 325 million bushels.

THE WORLD ,.EAT SITUATION

BACKGROUND.- Total world supplies increased sharply from 1924
to 1933, largely as a result of the increase in acreage. From
1933 to 1936 world supplies declined following successive
years of small production and.increased world demand. In 1937
world supplies were only mod-rately larger than in 1936.

During the 1924-33 period, when world supplies were
increisin,-, world prices were declining, reaching the low
point as supplies reached the high point. From the spring of
1933 to the summer of 1937, world prices moved steadily upward,
reflecting higher world commodity price levels, four successive
below-average harvests in North America, and the 1935-36
short Southern Hemisphere crop. In 1936-37 wheat prices
advanced sharply as a result of increased demand and the
smallest supplies in recent ye--s. Then, during the 1937-39
selling season, wheat prices declined generally, with somewhat
larger supplies, uncertain prospects for world business activity,
and wek.kness in the general price level.

World carry-ov'.,r July 1939 expected to be Iarge

On the basis of present supply estim-tes and a moderate increase in
world di-r-perrance, the world wheat carry-over* on July 1, 1939, is expected
to be pr.out 1,165 million bushels. A carry-over of this size would be second

*All references in this report to world and Iorthern Hemisphere supplies,
production nn-i disappearance exclude Soviet Russia and China but include net
r'.-Trts from S -viet Russia.







WS-24 3

only to the 1,193 million r- ,.els in 1q 3. T- l. 1 -. th et ---te world
carry-over, production, exports from Soviet P.r:sio, and prospective ".ar-en1
stocks -'nd dip.'rpp-r-n.ze bed on pre?.,.t indications com-nr f with fi -ires
for 1937-38.

T.ble 1.- Estimated wh,.t rru1l; 9 nro -'ctive distribution, world,
year b-:ginning July 1, 1938, ':'.r-a'" with 1937

: Year b_ rinninr July 1
Item
: 1937 estimates :1938 indications I/
: Million bu-he] s 'ili: n 1-.. I-

Carry-over July 1 .................: 519 59.5
Production ........................: 3,839 4,364
Total supply .... .........3...: 4,35 4,
Net exports from Soviet Russia .....: 39 I_/ 35
Total of "'ovo .................: ., 7 4,054
Disappearance ..... ..............: 3,802 3,830
Carry-over Jur.? 30 .................: 595 1,164
Ij Based on current estimates of production in the NTrthern Hemisphere, and
prospects in the Southern Hemisphere, to.: their with prospective utilization
ani Government policy.

W-rld ''.e.'.t -r:. -- ion th,. Inrb est on record.

The world production of wheat during the 1938-39 season is now
estimated at 4,365 million bushels. This is the lar:'-st on record a..i about
525 million bush-ls, or 14 percent; more than.the 1937-38 crop, and is /'-out
20 million bushels above the estimate carried in the September'Wheat
Situation. The NTcrthern Hemisphere crop is now placed at 3,905 million
bushels. Upward revisions in the official estimates for German", Sweden,
Bulgr-ria anr.d' Turkey account for most of the- increase since last month.

The Southern Hemisphere total is now estimated by the Bureau of
Agricultural Economics at 20 million bushels less than the September figure.
On the basis of weather and yield studies, the crop inArgentina is now
placed at 257 million bur.,ls. Deficiency of rainfall has caused the crop
to deteriorate over much of Australia and the crop is now forecast at
about 1l0 million bushels.

Weather favorable for ploughin- and s.ed1rin has prevailed over most
of the Zurcpr .2- winter .et areas. Parts of the ,alkan countries -re also
reported to b- in need of additional rains, to enable serving to pr c-ircs
satisfactorily. To.- much moisture in the United Kiridosm -has delayed
ploughing recently, and dry weather is now wanted to enable field work to
progress normally.







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Table .- Prcluction of wheat in sr-eified countries,


1935-36 to 1938-39


Country : 1935-36 1: 936-37 : 1937-38 : 1938-39

: 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000


s


bushels


bushels


i":rth America:
United States ..............:
Canada ..................... :
Me i co .....................
Total (3) ...............:
Europe: :
England nrLi Wales ..........:
Scotlanl ................... :
Northern Ireland ........... :
Ireland ....................:
I .rwa.y .................. :
Sweden ....... .............. :
Denmark ....................
Netherlands .. ............., .
Belgium ... ................:
France ............... ... :
Spain ............ .........:
Luxemburg .................:
Portugal ....................:
Italy ........ .............
Switzerland ................:
German y ........ .
Austria .................... ..:
Czechoslovakia .............
Greece .....................:
Poland .....................:
Lithuania ..................
Latvia .....................
Estonia ............... ...:
Finland ................ ..;
"21 ta ............ ...... ..:
Albania ................... .
Total (26) ..............:
?ulgaria .... ...... ... .... .
Eunri y ....................:

Yugoslavia .................:
Total (4) .............:
T-tal zu-ope (30)........:


626,344
281,935
10,712
918,991

60,592
4,480o
362
6, 686
1,869
2 ,610
14,672
16,653
16,093
284,950
157,986
1,022
22,092
282,760
5,974
171,488
15,509
62,095
27,180
73 ,ap
10,093
6,520
2,267
4,233
179
1,554
1,274,803
47,925
84,224
96,439
73,100
301,68
1, 576,491


626,766
219,218
13,6o6
859,590


51,445
3,.547
273
7,839
2,094
21,635
11,266
15,428
16,153
254, 618
121,492
1,071
8,651
224,570
4,470
162,660
14,039
55,583
19,537
78,357
8,027
5.272
2,433
5.259
236
1,1o6
1,097,061
60,350
87,789
12:,.717
107,422
384,278
1,481,339


873,993
182,410
10,586
1,066, 989


52,005
4,181
164
6,990
2,497
25,720
13,522
12,555
15,550
257,838
132,000
1,206
14,403
296,294
6,221
164,120
14,470
51,266
32,373
70,774
8,109
6,302
2,786
7,665
326
1,466
1,200,803
64,910
72,158
138,158
86,238
361,464
1,562,267


940,229
358,433
lJ 12,000
1,310,662


66,453
3,957
2/ 190
2/ 7,700
2,609
30,166
3/14,000
15,432
18,482
319,300
4/102,900
1,233
1/ 15,800
5/296,953
6,096
198,524
3/ 16,200
65,697
35,494
3/ 80,800
9,076
7,643
3,028
7, 643
1/ 300
1/ 1,500
1,327,176
63,933
96,414
183,933
100,902
445,182
1,772,358


Continued -


r-







ws-24


Table 2 .-Production of wheat in specifi-i countries, 1935-36 to 19''-39 Cant'n


Country : 133-36 : 1936-37 : 1937-38 : 193'-39


: 1,000


1- -C-"- Co nt d
Africa:
Al geria ....................
Morocco .. .................
Tunisia ....................
E ,T t ................. ... .
T tal (4) ...............
Asia:
Palestine ..................
Syria and Lebanon ..........
India ........ ........
Japan .....................
Chosen ........... .....
Turkey .....................
Total (6)................
Total 43 countries ......
Estimated Northern
Hemisphere total, ex-
cluding Russia and China

SOUTHF-II HEMISPHERE

Argentina ....................
Australia ..................
Union of South Africa ........
Estimated world total
excluding Russia and
China ..................


busvTs )


33,532
20,036
16,902
43,222


*
*


: *


1,000
bushel s


29,774
12,234
8,083
45,700


1,000


33,106
20,895
17,637
45,376


32, 433
21,476
13,962
45,929


113,692 95,791 117,014 113,800

3,834 2,795 4,682 L/ 4,000
: 18,520 15,704 17,210 I/ 18,000
363,216 351,680 364,075 402,453
: 48,718 45,192 50,410 6/ 45,000
9,747 8,095 10,242 10, 333
92,641 141,582 136,483 160o,421
536,676 565,048 583,102 640,207
3,1145,850 3,001,768 3,329.372 3,837,027


: 3,225,000 3,067,000 3,395,000 3,903,000



: 141,462 249,193 184,801 1/ 250,000
: 144,218 151,390 188,018 140,000
: 23,709 16,077 10,157 11,000


:
:
*


3,601,000


3,54o,ooo


3,839,000


4,364,000


1/ Approximation.
2/ Estimate of the London office
3/ Estimate of the Berlin office
Estimate of the Paris office
5/ The Paris office of the Bure~-


of the Bureau.
of the Bureau.
of the ?uireau.
. regards this official estimate as Nbein too


high.
Estimate of the Shanghai office of the Bureau.
Based on weather conditions to dte.
Compiled from official data except as otherwise noted.


-5 -


I,-A O
'.ur*, la







- 6 -


Ct-T 1._:rl rh',r. -'.. *-.1ctd to _', larzer

World shir-- .-.ts for the year -gir.n.ir.g July 1, 1938, are still
estimated at about rmr million bushels, including about 40TO million
to Euopean importine countries (table 12) and about 110 million bushels
to non-..ropean countries. This is _n increase in total shipments, of
about K) million bushels over shir.:.:-s in 1937-38.

After allowinr.s for domestic requirements and carry-over there
appears to be about 900 million bushels of wheat -v- able for export in
exporting countries, which, if import t kin s s?.m.Ild amount to only about
E, million I'l'..-1s, would leave a sizeable increase in carry-over stocks
at the end of the current season.

Even though the general escort situation is not favorable, the
United States is expected to export about 100 million bus>:els through
Government aid. T-is is about the same as in 1937-38 when Canada and
Argentina had small crops, -ni constitutes about the same proportion of
the total world tr-i. as it did before the >i-ginzi.g of the decline in
both world and United States exports in 1929 and 1930. Exports of wheat,
including flour made wholly of United States wheat, for July-September
are estimated at about 28 million bushels, which compare with 13 million
bushels for the -sme 3 months in 19,37.

World shipments of wheat, including flour in terms of wheat, from
July 1 to October 15 totaled 158 million bushels compared with 115 million
bushels for the same period la"t year. Weekly shipments by important
exporting countries, with comp ari sons, are shown in table 9. Tables 10
to 12 also contain data on the current movement, and table 8 shows the
surplus for e:-.ort or carry-over in Cnn-ina, Argentinr, and Australia,
together with port stocks and stocks afloat.


Freigr: nric:, -,-':7.t c.me as before -:ropean plitic]. ten:ion

With the p.inr of the political situation in Eurorpe wheat prices
declined in foreign markets, where not fixed to about the level which
existed in early September, before the European situation became tense.
Apprehension ov-r continued drought conditions in Australia, however,
have t-.rndd to give support to prices. Cash prices of imported wheat at
Livrpnool are shown in table 3 and futures prices at Liverpool, Winnipeg,
and >-.nos Aires, in table 6.
*. .n s in world -.c;t prices during the next few months are expected
to depend lur,- ly upon changes in crop prospects in Argentina and Australia
(where the harvest takes place in December and January), and upon reports on
the pro.-res of thb winter w:.eat crop.







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-a-le 3.-Prices of imi-ortel wheat at Liv- rpol


Date
(Friday)


1938 :
July 8
15 ....
22 ....:
29 ..
Aug. 5
12 ....
19 ....
26
Sept.2 ....
9 ....:
16.
16 ....:

30 ....:
Oct. 7 ....:2/
14 .... :2/


: i:..r cd wheats _:_ : _heats_____
: U.S. : : C'- :da : : U. : Austra- : India
: (Gulf) : r.-*-:,- : No. 3 : :(P'i ific): lian : choice
: :o. 2 : tine :Manitoba :Russian : I. ite : / : Krachi
:Hi.Winter: r irusso : / : : : : i/
: Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents


,8.8
90.2
91.1
89.0
87.2
82.2
93.8






73.8
68.9
69.6


100.7
99.4
96.8
92.1
91.7
84.1
83.1


73.8

78.0


IC7.4
110.2
113.0
102.9
96.7
P".6
84.2
84.6

71.6
79.5
78.4
80.6
73.8
74.7


92.6
97.9

79.8
77.2
75.4
71.6


60.0
59.7
60.0
72.3
59.9
61.4


96.3
84.5

81.0
76.9
77.7


70.1
75.0
72.7

71.9
71.0


98.0
97.1
96.8
93.6
92.5
9".6
82.3


72.3
78.8
80.2
90.4
79.4
74.7


91.1
94.0
03.8
91.5
91.7
86.8
83.1


71.6


I/ Empire wheat qualifying for Imperial Preference is exempt
Tapproximatino 6 cents prer bushel) under Ottawa Agreements of
2/ No. 2 Yellow Hard Winter.


from duty
November 1:-2).


THE DOMESTIC ':7iT"T SITUATION

BACKGRCUi'D.- T:.e carry-over of wheat in the United States
for the 5 :.'cars 1924-28 averaged about 115 million bushels.
Stocks which began to accumulate in 1929 reached the record
peak of about 375 million bushels in 1933. Four small wheat
crops, however, reduced stocks on a comparable basis to
about 100 million bushels by July 1, 1937. Domestic dis-
appearance during the 10 years 192--37 averaged 680 million
'bushels.

Dor., stic wheat prices from the spring of 1973 to that
of 1937 wc:re unusually high in relation to world market
prices, because of four r-:.11 domestic crops caused 1 ,ire-ly
by abnormally low yields n. r acre. Duri.:, 1936-37 both
world and domestic prices advanced Th-.r-ly as a result of
increased demand and the smallest supplies in recent y ars.

S.rly in the 19':7-38 season, domestic and forei'-T.
wheat prices rose sharply follo, in reports of serious






- 8 -


S. e to the Cnadian crop and the threat of rust d --.~e in
the United Ltat s. It was tho.,:!.t possible at that time that
world prices mi.-1.t remain sufficiently above the 1326-37 level
to offset the decline in United States prices to an export basis.
.ow:' vwr, 'w ith an increase in the estimates of the world crop,
ro -ucts of large shipments from Soviet Russia, a slow European
dem.id, disturb d business conditions, and a falling -.:.:n -.ral
co-mmodity price level, wheat prices in world markets dcPclincd.

r.;--:"- July 1, 1939, expected to be close to 300 million bushels

On the basis of estimatedd July 1 carry-over stocks, the latest
production estimates, tnd the o:Gu-'tion that increased feeding of wheat
will about offset reduced seed requirements, the carry-over of wheat in
,the United States on July 1, 19C, is expected to be close to 300 million
.bushels (table 4).

Table 4.-'Estim ted wheat supply and prospective distribution, con-
tinental United States, years beginning July 1, 1938, compared
with 1937

:__ YYear brp.innin July 1I
Item :1937 estirP.tes:1938 indications
: Mil. bu. .1 11. bu.

Carry-over, July 1 ............: 83 154
Production .................... : 874 940
Imports .......................: 1 0
Total supply .. ........ 958 1,094
Disappearance ................ : 700 700
Net exports and shipments 1/ ..: 104 100
Carry-over June 30 ..........: 154 294
_1/ Includes flour in terms of wheat.

July-September farm wheat disappearance large

Stocks of wh at rei,,i. ninrL on farms October 1 were about 407
million bushels, or 43 percent of this y .-r's production. The dis-
anp(arance of wheat from f rms duri:--- the July-September quarter was
the lar.'..st for the 13 years for which reports have been prepared.
Stocks of 1!hc-t on farms, to--.ther with corT mrci l stocks for recent
y ars to- th r with the 10--y I-r average are shown in table 5. Figures
on stocks in country mills and elevators mnd in merchant mills and
elevators will not b( available until later this month.

T' bl 5.-7l -t ,tocks on f.rms and in cities (corn.ercial) on
Cctober 1, 10-y o:r aver -. 1936-38

Item : Avc ra ie 1 i I7 : 19-b
: 19' 7-36 : : :
1: 000 bu. 1,000 bu. 1,000 bu. 1,000 bu.

Fai'. : toqks ................ : 344,089 E.,172 -" '` ,746 406,989
:r i 1 s:tocks .......... : 150 3556 ,849 141,196 1-9 273
_... --. "- -~"- ".*2 79 546,262









WS- 24


Unit-:i :,t .tes wheatt :-' '. -ti' i fourth lryest on record

e :.'el i- i ..... es'ti:arte of 1': '- production of all :1.heat t
million burhels, exceeded only" in 1915, 1919 and 1,1, is unc -ed '
a :".o.th ;-?. s-.is consists of .'* million bushels of hard r -. winter,
240 million soft red winter, 1'-' million hard red K ring, 13 millionn
durum -r." 1i." rcil?.ion bushels of whiite ''h:,t. This year's total ;ro-
duction is about 8, percent above the ] I' pro.'.ction of '-4 millionn
bushels, and about L,- recent above the lO-y-ar (1927-.C) awvr.-e of '
million bushels.

f...- durun :heat estimate is sli -" tly below the September indicated
production due to a sli ht decrease ir the aver:. acre yield in South
Dakota. The pr-..uction is, however, about 2 .. recent above the 10-:--ar
(1:'7-36) ive .-.--,. T-.. ave ; -c yield per acre of 11.9 bushels is 1.8
bushels above the 1. "7 i-eld of 10.1 and 2.1 bushels, above the 10-- .:
ave:,- e of 9.8 bushels.

i1.e preliminary -roduction estimate for spring 'heat other than
durum is 210 million bushels, which is unchanged frop,1:ast month. The
19Z9 crop is 30 percent larger than the crop of 161fusnels in 127:' and
is :"6 percent above the 10-y: -.r aver-, of 156 million bushels. ThC
averag-e yield per acre as of October 1 was 11.9 bushels, compared with
10.9 for 19'7 and the 10-year average of 11.3 bushels.

The proli:linary estimate of "*.-inter ;;hoat production, of C"' million
bushels, made in Au'rL.t ':ill remain unchanged until the final estimate in
',- e -t r.

Spr".rid narrow between domestic and for i.rn prices

Compared with early September, before the political situation in
Europ. became tense, recent wheat prices in many United States markets are
evidencing indper.dent :tr r.-th (tables 6 and 7) as the result of govern-
a, ntal purchases, dry weather in the United States winter .wheat areas, and
strength in security .:ar:k ts. As a result, the spread between prices in
domestic markets rnd in import i:..-- cou tries has become relatively narrow.

Duri'.': the next f w months -1. e-..es in domestic prices (to other
with ch-ar.es in wheat nrie s in forei---. countries) are ex-:m .ted to continue
to depend lar-'-ly u-on ch'r.-- s in crown pro:it cts in Ar..-j-ntina -rd Australia,
reports on the area sown and progros;. cf the United States winter wheat crop,
and n-.-ral business conditions. As alro1 .- indicated, a-. tralia is in need
of rain, an c-,e. tions are blow: aver. in Arenr.tina. accordingn g to present
prospects, the i:.r rovem nt in Ti.inwss conditions is expected to continue.

In the United Stt ,s, rain is nec in nP early the entire 'h at
Belt, ir'.ntly so over imot western rtions. In the Ohio Valley !uch wheat
has been sown and the early crc:, has come up genn rail:- to rood tands, but
-crnir.tion of that recently se-, .i is being retar-:. by dry soil; a -,.:








- 10 -


rain is ndedd thro" *i.out the area. ". st of the I.li::sip'i River, except
in. liited areas, thcr1 is .3:" -::.t need for moisture. In the u';cr ..icsissippi
Valley '~arly ; : t is mostlyly up -"ith fair to .-'od -'tands, but late seeded
ie n d rin.

In 'arts of the South':..-st, ~ ci-al ly thu northwestern fourth cf
xis ,, astern :r: :.7xico, beneficial rains trive occurred, but otherwise,
throughout the Plainu, th rc is on ur,;ent ned for moisture. In Kansas much
C.<(it, esnrcially the l-te seeded, is dl.terior.atins and the volunteer crop
is '.yine, uthile ltec-so-vn fields are not (e min'ating properly. This unfavor-
*'1i condition is o ncral from T.xt, to North D .kota, but showers in central
m:ont n have i..: rov.d "oniition thtre. In the more western States, recent
r:ins have bee-n helpful.

Table 6.-Av.r' -e closi'. prices of Decerber wheat futures, sp',cifi -d
markets and dates, 192.7 and 1938

.'innipt g :Liverpool : Bu-nos : : Kansas :,
Chica.',o inneapolis
te : / 1/ : Air:s : : City :.
1:Z7 .:1'.?9 :1937:1938 :12"7 :198 :177 :19a8 :1937 :197 3 :1937 :1939
:Cents Centnts Cnts Conts C nts Cents Cu.nts Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
.c .th- :
July :154.1 76.0 140.3 p2.6 -- -- 1241.6 72.9 120.3 67.6 174.1 76.9
A:-. :122.3 68.1 127.5 75.5 --- -- 111.0 55.8 104.8 61.5 119.2 68.8
Sept. :123.9 61.8 120.2 71.4 -- -- 106.6 64.6 101.4 60.9 114.7 66.5

ended- 2/ 3/
Sept. 3 :120.3 61.0 125.4 72.2 115.2 61.9 100.8 64.7 101.2 61.2 114.7 66.6
10 :124.9 59.0 130.0 67.6. 19.22/57.4 108.6 62.5 102.8 59.3 117.1 64.4
17 :123.1 63.6 129.5 71.4.i22.62/61.2 104.0 65.7 98.5 61.6 112.5 67.6
24 :1::.6 62.2 150.7 72.64 23.4_2/0.6 106.0 64.6 101.2 60.5 114.2 66.3
Oct. 1 :127.C 62.5 155.0 73.52 28.3 2/62.0 10R.3 65.6 104.0 61.7 115.7 67.4
8 :121.9 b8.8 11.0.4 68.2j 37.7/P .8 103.4 64.2 99.3 60.0 110.9 65.5
15 :118.2 59.7 126.5 67.4 450.92/57.2 98.5 65.0 95.5 61.0 106.9 ':6.0

:i-': 4/ :1.-.9 77.6 11.3. 3.00 15.9 5/,5.1 128.0 74.7 1::3.8 68.9 138.4 78.5
Low 7 :118.2 58.8 125.0 67. 15 5.25,t7.2 98.5 62.5 95.5 59.3 106.9 64.4

1/ Con verions it noon buyin' rate of axh'n-...
2/ YIovember futures.
J October futures.
SJuly 9 to October 15, 1..7, *Ind corresponding dates 1f'7.
/ October :'.tur(;s for w. ks ended August 20 to 2'ovenmbr 3; Novemnber futures
.ptemb r 10 to Octobor 15, 1i-~K. November futures for corresporn.in.r dates 1937.






- 11 -


,-r7.'e 7.- We e': e.! '.era.-- cash price vwh t, tr ,cified ':. -r .:
!:.tes, 1937 and 1 38


Date ; '.-. *- ." es : ard. '7intt r: -" ". -xr ng;: A ber 7hur:n :(F. 'i.? t, r: Thie


to.' Ct- Cx': e.'L. C -.1 Ctents CO.nts ents e .-." Cc:nts ~ j2 .ts
Month-
July :118.7 .4 122.5 71. 1 1.2 87.6 ]33.0 79.s 122." -'. 1 7.8
A.:.-. :107.5 -..g 111.8 65.5 132.8 77.5 b116.3 73.1 112. C 65.6 .3 1.2
SE6-t. :i'.- .7 -'.3 1 i.5 65.7 133.5 76.2 110.1 68.9 1 -.2 67.1 9. 2.7
Week
ended-
S1pt. 3 :l.9 69.5 137.9 66.7 1 -'.2 76.2 113.0 69.5 107.4 66.6 4.6 62.1
P :120.8 .8 112.2 2.8 138.1 75.3 112.8 67.6 111.1 -.1 .5 6l.
17 :10'6.3 .4 1C'.6 64.6 132.0 78.8 106. 7. 7.1 1.8 67.4 91 13.6
24 :107.9 ) .7 1 '.3 -.9 131.8 75.8 105.4 69.1 1 -.1 67.9 94.3 c2.O
Oct. 1 :1 -.7 08.3 111.3 66.8 133.1 76.7 1 )'.5 69.0 111.9 69.6 94.6 64.2
8 :o6<.o .9 17.4 63.8 123.9 73.3 10c.4 -.1 1 7.4 67.6 91.8 62.2
15 :101.4 65.7 102.7 6'.9 120.6 7.9 106.7 65.2 1c0.3 .9 .5 ---

High 2j :123.0 71.C 125.3 71.1 156.2 97.6 142. S53.4 124.5 69.1 113.8 .4
Low 2/ :10l.4 -.9 1 P.7 62.8 12'.6 72.9 105.4 65.1 1C'.3 63.5 ,., 59.7

I/ W6ee:ly av r!.;t. of daily cas" quotations', basis No. 1 sackc.d.
2/ July v to rct. 15, 198S, arn correspor.n.n- dates for 1937.


Table 8.- T'E.at surrAus for export or carry-over in thr.e exrortir.-
rruntrii.s, Uniteid Kingdom port stocks and stc .:.- afll .t,
oct. 1, 1935-S I

S-.s i it -r. : i1 : '"' 1 : i '- "

:a : -d Z7
In C n.da. . .. 2 184 1C
In T:itr. States ........... 21 19 1 2
Argjntina..................... 36 21 9 21
Australia..................... 71 21 17 "
Total....................... 245 12Z 3 1
Unit.,d :.ir,-'.--- port st c'-.... 6 9 17
S .- ~s afloat to:
"r it d :': ... *,o ............. : 12 17 1 g
Continr.nt .......... ....... : 9 9 12
Criers.....................: .1..1 _, ." __
tal................... :. .'.. '
. .
i_/ Car- -over att ,-" ,
arr--over at tr of the yi.ar (2anada, July 31; Ar entina, Jan::,,
1; A.-.tralia, T". :.-..r 1 -: the previous y,ar) f1lus nr' action min"u do-stic
utilization for }., y;ar, minus monthly ,..x-orts to dat'.







- 12 -


Ta'le 9.- Shipments of wheat, including flour from principal e:irrting
countries, specified dates, 1937 and 1938

Period : Ar r.t ina : Aistralia : anj.e : ". rth Anerica
in o107 : 1077 14! :Z 1937 1 1937 : 1938
: 1,000 1,000 ,C,00 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,0. 0 1,000
'L'I LsI t." ':-c 1 S .'-u~h C- rhl zurhi bu~hl~ 13.hc~ buh


July-Aug. .. : 7,752 12,308 12,164
Week ended- :
Sept. 10 : ,-, 764 944
17 5k 1,11;6 "-?


24
Oct. 1
815
15


412
1,144
1, 20
368


1,524
g36
411


1,18 i4
704
904
2, 16


19,636

1,456
1,380
1,704
1,254
972
1,707


5,536 1,872 24,192 37,380


1,144
1,616
1,456
1,288
1,680g
1,560


456
624
384
552
400
920


2,128
2,90'4
3,024
3.312
4,o04
4,4co


3,400
4,152
4,336
5,536
5,469
4,774


Compiled from Eroc:-hall's Corn Trale News.


Table 10.- xp-orts of wheat and wheat flour from the United States,


(Includes flour


1937 and 1938
milled in bond from foreign wheat)


qheat
19 7 : 198g :


: 1, 0,-0 1,000
S. -' 1..s bushels


Wheat flour
1937 : 1938
1,000 1,000
bajpels barrels


: Wheat incl. flour
: 1937 : 1938
1,000 1,000
rush.-Is Gushels


July-Au'.
TWe.k ended 1/:
Sept. 10 :
17
24 :
Oct. 1
8 :
15 :


7,598 20,467


784
724
636
655
1,363
1,792


558
508
999
836
572
2/ 567


68
18
99
43
59
348


807

42
68
37
28
254
2/ 512


10,618

1,104
809
1,101

2,614
2,140


24,262

755

1,173
9a7
826
2J 1,079


I/ Data for total e:r--.-'rts from the United States by weeks are not available.
;-*-se data are the total of exports through 16 of the principal ports.
-I re-limirnary.
Compiled from reports of the department of Commerce.


Period
*


J J






- 13 -


Table 11.- Movement of wheat, inclu-idi flour, from principal
exporting cour.tries, 1935-36 to 193:-39


-_ -jcr. .. ? -i',,n 1 c ff ri r ..-')Xr C:3
Country : ____Tl : Ja]y 1 to -te T-wrr. : !te
_____193CL13533: 1 C-^ -1 T I S) ... 7 3
: 1,000 1,000 1,COO 1,000 1,000 1,000
: -..hllIs but .hels .:...-'. 1 bushels s b .-.-"1 'u' .- i.I


United States i/
Canada *........
Argentina ....
Australia .....:
Russia ........
ur.gry ...... :
Yugo sl avi a .... :
RrUMnia .......:
Bulgaria ......:
British India .:


15,929
237,447
76,577
105,3. -
29,704
14,644
728
6,392
2,988
2,556


21,58g4
213,028
162,977
98,730
4,479
27,42-s
17, 948
36,264
7,273
16,571


107,204
94,546
69,670
123.343
43.354
9,368
5,012
32,962

2/19,621


3,055
73,239
12,817


10, 618
25,237
11,157


391


24,26:
17,515
15,192


A,:--.
Sept.
Sept.


4, 794 July 31


Total ....: 490,293 606,282 513,564
: Shipments as given by trade sources
: Total : Week ended 1938 : July 1 Oct. 15
:1936-37 z 1937-38 : Oct. 1:Oct. 8 :Oct. 15: 1937 : 1938


: 1,000 1,000
:blushels bushels


North America /j 231,832
Canada,4 :


markets 4/....:
United States 5/


194,531
10,395


Argentina .....: 164,678
Australia .....: 105,836
Russia ........
Danube and
Bulgaria 6/ : 65,544
British India J/ 16,571
Total 8/...: 5814,549
Total Eurorean :
shipmr.ents 31/ 484,670
Total ex-Eurcpean
shipments 3/ : 127,192


1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
bushels bushels bushels bushels


184,720 5,536 5,469 4,774


86,595
83,651
66,928
127,520
42,248


37,320
2/ 19,621
478.357


9,773
967
1,524
1,256
1,512

552
112


9,301
826
836
972
2,568

400
0


9,812
1,079
1411
1,707
1,264

920
0


39,608

28, 779
16,554
12,348
18,296
12,o04O


7,480
104,052


1,000
bushels

65,011

63,796
26,334
17,839
28,111
30,920


5,208
6,136
153,225


397,656 8,640 9/72,728 9/109,592


99,400 2,240


9/20,976 2/ 28,280-


Ij Includes flour milled in bond from foreign wheat. 2/Preliminary estimate.
3/ Broomhall's Corn Trade News. 4/ Fort William, Port Arthur, Vancouver,
Prince Rupert, and New Westminster. _/ Official reports received from 16
principal ports only. 6/ Bl-ick Sea shipments only. Z/ Official.
91 Total of triie figures includes North America as reported by Broomhall's
but does not include items 2 and 3- 9/ To .October 1 only.


vWs--k




UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
iI I ll 11 1111 I tlil l lli I
3 1262 08861 8318
T'le 12.- "et imports of wheat, including flour, into European -coun-
tries, y-ar Beginning July 1, 1937-38 and 1938-39


Coun t r,-


-vciumn ...............
Czechosl v'-7 ia ..........
Denmark ................
Fir. ................
Fr. r.ce ............. .
Gerrar.y .................
Austria ................
Greece .................
Ireland ................
Italy ..................
Latvia .................
:.etherlands ...........
. rway .......
Poland ................ .
Portugal .... .......... .
Swe en ................
Switzerland ............
United Kingdom ......
Thtal imports if above
Spain ........ ..... '
Total imports .........
TVtal exports .........
Total net ir-morts .....


1937-38 :1938-39 :
forecastt
S1.i bu. 'il, Tu.:
36 39 :
:/ 1 4:
6 7:
3 3:
16 16:
:47 33:
7 9
: 16 13 :
: 14 13 :
5 17:
1 0:
: 24 24 :
7 7:
: 0 1/- 6:
1 2
: I 1 1:
14 17
193 217:
390
: 3 15 :


393
2
391


437
6


431 -


Net
July 1
te


Aug.
Aug.
July
July
July
Aug.

Aug.
Aug.


Aug. 31
Aug. 31
Aug. 31

Aug. 31
Aug. 31
Aug. 31


imports reported
1937-38 1
: Mil. Iu. M

:I/ 1
: 1
1

: 1
: 9

: 2 "
5 .

14
*1 *

:/ -1
2
34


?93-39
il.bu.

1
1


1
1

2
4

5
1
3/

3/
3
38


60 59
2 0
58 59


Net exports.
Less than 5C",000 bushels.
Net exports of less than 500,000 b'osh-ls.


CcL-iled from official sources except as otherwise stated.

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