Wheat situation

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
WASHINGTON

WS -23 SEPTEMBER 23, 1938

T H E W H E A T S I T U AT I 0 N
INCLUDING RYE


WHEAT: NET EXPORTS AND EXPORT PRICE. UNITED STATES. 1820-1937
NET EXPORTS PRICE
BUSHELS[ (CENTS PER
(MILLIONS) BUSHEL)

300 -- -- 240

2 5 0 .. ..............................- --- -.-.. --- ............ ............. 2 0 0
250 200

200 P .e 60

150 I-- I 20

100 ----- 80


50 --- -- 40


0 0
20 1. 30 ,1..... ... II i l .... Il840..8. 186 I .0

-50 -40__
1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940
1820-41, YEAR BEGINNING OCTOBER, 1842-1937, YEAR BEGINNING JULY
INESG.42fs-A BUREAU OF AG4ICULTUA4L ECONOMICS
U.S. DEPARTMENT OFAGRICULTURE


UNITED STATES EXPORTS OF WHEAT INCREASED FROM 1865 TO
1900, DURING A PERIOD IN WHICH PRICES WERE DECLINING. THEN
EXPORTS FELL OFF UNTIL 19!0, WHEN PRICES WERE ADVANCING.
THE UNUSUAL DEMAND WHICH DEVELOPED DURING THE WAR INCREAS-
ED BOTH EXPORTS AND PRICES. SINCE THE WAR WHEAT EXPORTS
HAVE DECLINED STEADILY, AND IN 1934, 1935, AND 1936, IM-
PORTS OF MILLING AND FEED WHEATS WERE NECESSARY BECAUSE
OF SMALL UNITED STATES CROPS OF HARD RED SPRING AND DURUM
WHEATS AND SHORT FEED SUPPLIES. PRIOR TO THIS TIME NET
IMPORTS OCCURRED ONLY ONCE IN 1836. WITH A LARGE WHEAT
CROP IN THE UNITED STATES IN 1937, AND A REDUCED PRODUC-
TION IN CANADA AND ARGENTINA, ABOUT 100 MILLION BUSHELS
WERE EXPORTED IN 1937-38.










uI T :IT. A T 1 0






.... t... .. wo l'.1i' suppr lies* for the year -- ...i. July 1, 1-.: ,

are C.no td to be abut million n bushels more than a year ..o.

o'l.7 s:o0 ks of old ,n:at about July 1 have been esti:.ited at about L?.

millionn r-ols, or about b 1.illion bushel s more than a year earlier.

" rld t prouction* is now estimated at around 4,345 million bushels,

which is SI0 million bushels more than the crop of last year. The crop in

the Northern Hemisphere* is indicanted to be about 3, .-C million bushels,

or 470 million bushels more ten i.was harvested last ye-:r. On the basis of

'wether conditions to date, a production of 260 million bushels is indi-

cated for A'r--.ntina and 150 million bushels for Australia, which together

represent an increase of about 35 million bushels compared with last year.

With low prices and abundant supplies, di-a-pe..wrance during the

present season may approxinmte 3,830 .11 l"ion bushels, and carry-over on

July 1, 1939, on the basis of present crop prospects, would be expected to

be about 1,145 million bushels, which would compare with the record carry-

overs in 1933 and 1934 estimated at 1,144 and 1,193 million bushels,

e spetively.

Carry-over stocks of old wheat in Europe at the be."i.riri: of the

nnw .on were practically unchanged f'-. those of a --"ar earlier. Duri' T

te r nt s o.on there .b (e an in r1.ase in reserve stocks in :-. '. ral of

t uropen counttri s incli:. France, c t Iny, the United hi:'. dom, ."

t Lu Basin 'ountri s. : Th xtcnt of the probable increases would

] r ely I .. political d Ic nts .-: upon the l.-:9 wheat ou' t I:T..

A f' r -s to cr:'I and :orth rn i.emisp re sunplics, pro a-tion, a: .
i sUaa:d .vi ,t ussia "and China.










Tot'*l '.orld net ...ort f.. t *,'t :'er t:. 1 I" ",nri '1 ,I

';.e o':. e t::.:t ',. :o.o .> folri> 1 orbiiii w K- *::

Cou'.ntries :.1:hich 'i ) :-ob 'b y ine v '*..: t ir i: ;o: ts' ir.],.;! t :, Ti 4:t "1

S. I .... n .in. k' i: o:: li',i. v to b i '

S. l ,-.ly for t .o ....of 0uil i 1 1

xr>ort2 frc:c t, soutir 0 rn T)'t of Soviet Ro si'i t'i" n :o *or

xavi r t n in ny r < .jin-o 1i', -.rou: tin.c to boi.it '4 A il 'on b ,-. .

for the July 1-? ,. r 17 rioci. This i vy r.mo-.n :: t i .rro'-:bl. *.o '

for by s: z:l c' .'-ov ;r of old crop -: ht, jth cood .:* t it t'-.

southern r. ort r --io;, rh. ( :nry n: turin; of this yV .r': I ro-, rd

lar-- proportion of co.inr- s v.c in 2.:v: vsting the :. w t cror in th ,'" t

which t, :;- to in:r~sc the qu ntity of thresh. r1in '.v: il-'blo i:'::di 1t vly

S'. h ....t. It .c. .'i r crsonabl: to xr, et a rl'ickenin" of c ort' : -s tli

seson pr "- ;S S, -sp ci .ly since prop ct this yt- .r n'rc estii.ted i to tu

to 30 p rc' nt b'elow th- t of l;st :y*r's .-ood crop.

1 UVnite SttC i1 ut sunplics '.re no'.: stir.'t cd .t 1,094 million

bushels, onsistin: of '. cwrry-o:ver of 151 million bushels of old *.>: ..t,

a crown of 940 million bush 1:s. Utilization -_-ou-t to Mbeout 7<

il lion buhols, :thi h wouldd 2. ave .bout [595 mil ion bush. s for :'cport C .nd

S:':--'ovr. If :oat 100 million bush. i-s *.r xbt:rtcd, rry-o.-.' sto ks

on July 1, 1959 w.:ould bc expected to total about 275 million bus 1. 1s, or,

without ins0ur .nce stock bout Im') million bu.h Is. This a o.:..s ''it 5

i on bu:";i I s3, ,che iv;" ": for tl.. 1.''"0-' `4 period, ":,' n ". e* chP :




"'..* t prices in 'nitd Stci tos r:.rk.ts :.r "* ne' 11'y .bot th 1.i

s month t.o, :.n tho .. ri in i I orttnt fr i':n :v. 't 'k. t '

lower. -,'ters '::i'>h h: su:norttd do l :ti p s i ru .' Cv of ..









-ric 7c:tinu d blow o, t Govr ... t loan basis; announce .nt of conservation

:d -ri- :adjust:nt payments iin conrntcticn with the 1959 agricultural procrrn.;

a ..un. n :.nt of t surplus 'h wt and flour nurch..s. and export program, to-

th r with the possibilitiess of a en' ral '--1 g an ar which '*.iit stimulate

:.1 Rdmad for .xl ort.

World )y production is now.; indicated to to about 100 million bushels

'bowe th K rv est of 1 at ,- ;ar. Production in L-orth America is about 10

:ilion buehls tbo-e tlht of 1l.7. The three largest European producers,

Ik :wy, Poland *d Czechoslovakia combined, show an increase of about 85

million n bushels, v:hile in the Danube Basin countries, the indicated increase

is about 16 million bushels.

_3 WORLDD .. .T SITUATION

BAC:; OU10TD.- Total world supplies 1/ increased sharply from
1924 to 19,.7, l..r -ly as th- result of the increase in
acrw From 19_3 to 19-,i world : 'plies declined follo.idr.
successive ye .rs of small prc K.ction and increased world
dem.:nd. In 1937 -,orld supplies were only moderately larger
than in 1936.

During the 1924-33 period, when world supplies vucre in-
criasing, world price( s were( declining, reaching the low point
as supplies ra ch ed the high point. Fr:. the sprirn- of 19Y:"
to the sumz1er of 1937, world prices mov.d stc...-ily upward, re-
fleeting hi -.r world conrnodity price. levels, four successive
bclow-:avv rae: harv, sts in North Armcrica, and the 1'.- -36 short
Southern Hemisphere crop. In 1936-37 ihea t prices advanced
sh:arly as .a 'r, ult of increased de. a:d nd the small est supplies
in rcc nt 'a rs. h en, during the 19:7-58 selling snason, wheit
prices~ delin d gn r illy, with somewhat 1 .r- r supplies, un-
c.rtoin prosp cts for world business activity, and wea.kness in
the: enerl price l vel.

"r'fi o :1. : t sup lih (1.d dis pe rance 1/

TL 1 shows th stiri: t d supply for the ye< .r be'i,- in.- July 1,
. 8, "om:rred ::ith a' y r rlir. Tot :1 supplies s for the current :. ar
* '. :0 o ti :.td Ato be 5"0 :million bu.hels lasr r than a ar .o. .ocks
r* rti'4 t d to I. 76 mAillion bush Is ]a:rg:r and production 5C7 million

.' tion, nd di(s1ar e ,< Ine0 for Sovi< t Russi .::nd Chin: 're
a t;rou'ihont tii> r( ort.

















S .- i: t l r ..
I .;i:.:ii".;' July 1 .:'"7 :, 19;


: L :A" 1 7
: 311. ) U. !lil. .ii. Lil. h:, .

Ol,- tok / 1 76
Iroi' t ion .............. : 3, '6 _____4,,.__,_, ___ 7

t *t oort, froe Sovii.'t
u.:i .. ............. : 4/ ) 5/ 5-
Y i" *,*~d stocks .............: 9 )_,_,
.t < i:.:ap,' : ar* ,.. ... : .3,798 .

1/ Ex1di .; ;'to.: *..d proau.t. onic n t Rursi and & Ci.a, but ina l'di-.
n. t -:ort fro:.: Sovi t Ruria. 2/ S t bl 2 : ,r'd 3 for -sti.atts of
stocks !-- c'outrib s. 3/ S, t?.Ll 4 for -ti :-t of production by coun-
trie:. 1/ Pirtly :ti:.::t d. / 3 c t xt, p >c 14.

worldd w .-at stocks

Torld old-crop : ,;...t : toc:s on about July 1 ,ar. now stint d I.t
5": nrillion hu. h ls, -rhich is 76 million bush1is 1irger than a y. r earlier,
and about r:illicn bush' s:all r thn the aver e of the 5 -,cars :.rior
to 1'. -9, aft r which ti"Ce i.ry large stock: b,.'-r to acc ::ulatc. 1: t 1t
stocks by country' s re3 sliovm in tables 2 and 3.

If dis a'p a .a 70ro:in,. tes 3, :r'illi bu--,, ls, a-. rodu'tioc
an.d x xorts frori Sovi~t RuosEia i'lnroy 'ito 4,578 rill ion bsh ]s, to'ks o'
about July 1, 1.9, .: .1a3 y be about 1,l1`5 millionn buh.. Is. Oth r :y ,r: i: -:.1 e
stocks 2/ w:.': a above 1 billion bu.h Is a :.re "is f'olloAzs:

1" '.i i 0T{

19 T 1,020

'i
s w'!,.'f, n' %, a"









1d Crop w-:heat stocks
1DJ7 and 1938


'Y un >rii s





S. . . .

San b aF .. .. .. .. :


S rs a- d afl at ........... :
l f a -ve ...... ....
Europe, ex ludi~g Danube and :
oviet Russia ...........
-.tal I/ .............


: l with 1937

.ill ion millionn y'illicn
bus els bushels bushels

83 155 +
52 35 17
59 75 16
53 CO + 7
35 40 + 5
80 D 0
:- 1. + .


150
C79C'


157
I]9


- 7
+ 76


ussia and China. 2/ Cld-crop wh eat only.
cl 'anadanadian l eat in the United States. 4/ Carry-cver on De-embor 31,
,lus exports and domestic consurnptin, July 1-Deem-ber 31. 5/ Carry-over on
December 1, plus net :--ports and domestic consumption July 1-November 30.
SEtimated by the Eurc-_an offices cf the Bureau of Agricultural Economics.
See tble 3 for estimates by countries.


Stc-ck in European countries 3/

Carry- ver st cks of old wheat in Europe o(n August 1, 1938 4/, estimated
at ]90 million bushels, were practically unchanced from a .-.'-.r earTier, when
tey ~ ere the smallest in many years. Fcr the countries outside of the ---.'.be
Ssin and Soviet Russia, the c. rr:-(ver of old crop stocks into the new season
is estimated at about 150 million bushels. Estimates by countries for the past
5 e ars are shewn in table 3, which also contains estimates of "normal" carry-
vr st ks

r .rn the current season there may be an increase in the reserve stocks
n rl1 Eur : ., rountrios, including France, Germany, the United Kingdom,
S nul Basin c;ntriec. T-ii w would be th result of large r crops in
:;-:.ral of the countries, the 1,lacr prevailing level of wheat prices compared
;:itr tri cf last ya r, and th4 uncertain political situation. The extent
f rbl in-rease would d depend upon p lilticl devc opmcnts and the 19":-"


S ropn offices of theI 'ur au of Agri(-ultural Economics.
-/*
Sd c** r' r' pr- s't Ie midl-point tw n th. be< inning -" thV Euroe an harvest
in J .. ;i in t r.


/- *


, about July 1,








:whft outturnr. he o rin "fic- e i r:'u of j.mi tur En ': c is
of the o inion that t1' increase in res:rv, stck t t rl f e rr.r.t
marke'ir- r I tr possibly aFroach 7. llcn bur:h], ini tt tItl
stocks in F'.irop-an countries rmigh:t be aocut 109 million sh ii l. rg r *it t 4
end of the present :irk.:ting r than at te be.nn.'in -.

Sble 3.- .'tirtd carr-ver of od -ref rh t ac 't c.ur -A 1 1/
in .-.roptan ccurtries, 19i4 t 1 7 an7 sti it d norml

country 1v 1935 2 l7 13 3/


"i i lion
:bushL Is


: I ium ........... ....
Czechosl oa.kia .............:

.i .r. ....... .............. :

r r.. cei ................ ... :
Giermany .... .. .... ....... ... :
: .stria .........
Greece .......... ...........:
Ireland ............. ....... :
Italy ............ ....... :
Latvia ............ .... .. :
Lithuania .....................
'- th* rlanrds .. ... .. .
Norway .... ... ........ ..... .
land ........................ :
.P r -.al .... ............ ......
Spa in ....... ........ ..... :
L .-i en ...................... ...
C.'*-i zerland ...... ......... .
'-nited Ki. dom ..... .. .. .:
E .rc;:, excluding Danube :
and Soviet Russia ...... :

Danube ." r-.in ................ :
Tot~l 1 rope, excluding :
C-vict Russia ..........


4.4
4.8
1.5
0.2
0.7
20.2
12.9
1.8
3.1
1.7
20.6
0.6
0.7
2.9
0.7
5.1
1.5
10.5
1.8
2.9
34.9


Ii 3lieon


4.0
12.9
1.3
0.2
0.6
117.6
55.1
2.4
3.3
1.7
44.1
0.9
0.7
3.3
1.8
9.2
3.3
18.4
3.5
6.4
42.3


S.n 'il l i n


nu she I s

*. .
12.9
2.0
0.4
0.7
91.9
49.6
2.0
3.3
1.7
16.5
1.5
1.5
2.4
2.0
8.8
9.2
40.4
3.3
6.8
34.9


bushel s

3.5
25.7
1.8
0.3
0.7
49.6
25.7
1.7
3.7
1.8
22.0
0.6
0.9
2.9
1.7
5.5
7.3
/ .1
3.1
6.2
31.2


busel 1

5.1
14.7
1.3
0.2
0.9
26.5
18.4
2.2
3.7
1.5
18.4
0.6
0.7
4.0
2.0
6.4
1.5
9.2
2.8
6.1
31.2


:.illi-n


2.P
9.2
1.7
0.3
1.3
12.9
29.4
2.4
0.5
1.5
25.7
0.7
0.7
2.2
1.7
5.5
1.1
7.3
2.6
5.7
S.4


133.5 333.0 295.1 229.0 157.4 149.6

27.6 -3.1 22.0 23.1 34.9 -!.4


161.1


366.1 317.1 2' .1 192.3 190.0


i ." fers to stocks of old wheat before thi new 'rop mcved to market; ': st 1
arbitrarily chosenn to rpr- sunt t e mid-point butw ,n the beginning Cf the
Euro- .. harvest in June and the ,rd in Septnmbr. EstiImt, s by European -ice
of tle -..reau of .;ricultur A Eccnoirics.
2/ In ** r-:rl, this .;rcoxir.vats one month's avr.. requirements for hum&m n-
ss.-' tion. Th. se figures are revised frcm time tc tire t ttake ccunt -" c -
i:'. consumption.
3/ Preliminary.


*"f -23


"illicon 'il


s





- 8-


..e facial esti-atP of the total wheat "rcp in Canada is placed
at ., ," ..*. s. Thisi includes 22?, G ,0 0 bush:els of durui.a, 316,.": ,000
e ea, and 20,) 57,0 bushels of fall-sc-wn wheat. The
S.tr i:co .-c,2, when the production was estimated at 443,061,000
el. e reau a f. Statisti-s reports that r 7t damage has affected
te i f i.r proprticn of the harvest so that the grading of the
crEop ay not n v rage alove that cf the 1. 37 crop.

e t-tl wheat ,rp in Uropce, now estimated to bc about 1,74F million
ses : r ro'rhes he~ rcr p 1o U p. 2 unusually large production was
aCde pos ie by the very fav r ie weather conditions which prevailed through-
cut r p-rt 4f the grc:ii,. season and during the harvest. Most of the
aountri s in rease s over la.-t year, the largest being for France and Italy.
Tie off ic.i .stim t of the Italian production, nov: placed at 297 million bush-
es, is ry ,.rally believed to be much higher than is ,justified. Production
inthe t : '.. sin is new, estimAted to be almost 80 million bushels above that
-f last y ar. Substantial gains are reported for all of the countries except
1 jari:.

The present outlook for Scviet Russia indicates a t-otal wheat crop well
bol 1; that of 1937. Excessive heat and prolonged drought during the current
sascn affected spring wheat severely, and to a lesser degree: damaged the winter
crop. T nt "barn" production for this year is estimated to be 25 to 30 per-
e-nt 1. ss than the rath(.r good crop of last ,,-ar. -i: quality of the crop is
re-port d to be generally poor. In the drought area fall plowing for the sprir-;
crops is prceercding slowly.

Estiinat s for northern Africa now indicate a total production slightly
below that of 1937.

.- 198 harvest in India, now Flaced at 402,450,C 0 bushels, is generally
b lived by British and Indian grain traders tc b' overestimated. This belief
is based on rupcrts that the ryild's in many parts of the country are not as high
as had. bc.-n expected, on account of unfavorable weather during the latter part
r-f t>. Crowing season. The trade estim..ates that th'- crop will not exceed 380
rilli on bu he Is.

.e mind harve rt of wlht in Chin Jir- and churia, is esti-
mat ed to h abru 5 pe rcen b-elow the small 1937 crop, and is about 23 percent
bl uvo r: The 1938 production in China is nov estimated to be 616 million
bshel: compared :;ith the small 1 :-7 production of 040 million bushels and the
9.6 rp of 790 million bushd. Th. Japan s. production is now tentatively
etimt 'd to be but 45 million bushs1: ccmpired with the 1937 production of
,410 00 burh te. Small ;, 1d., per unit account fcr thi decrease. The
'i1 lity of tb new crop is rc ort, d to be much below-v av r age, bcca use of dam-
S inrie, nt to unfevorab w.-..,ater during tie harvest p riod.











Sho area } 'n t* ':}' .'t in .r.. ira f r '. -. :: '.f 'i-

1 ', t', r p i ,*7 '1 1 *' n ., '**

t '.n7- ra s 't '.'. r .rnl. .

sent11] to ::. int &in t.ic favcr'. e c r.11 i r.









Storl irtrort srcspcrts

It new: 7:. ; rs that tct i vAcrld n f t i rcrts of :.het fat r 1te varr be-
ginnin: July 1, 1OS, m.y b .bo ut 5, llicn bushels larger t .an la sea: c.
This indication is s.._ on prcsor.t cr'p estir-ates, carry- v r :tcks, and
cth:r infcrnt ion. Cablc 5 sh.)ws th. fr casts cf r:or]d ne t iam rts cf
:*.' ut nc~' '- flour, .n.. .t Eurcn~ -. d ficit v:h: at "c .rtrie and h 1stir:tcd
sti nts to r n-Eurcpe>a. countries. :.e l::tt r is ausd in the. pl c f % i -
port f. ',res oz a a:us c r.il.tc fiurrs .rc net available for rncn-Eurc r.
cournriG. let imnorts intc EurpTL..o 1 ficit :h>-Vt countries arc forecast
at 437 million bush.ls J/ ccwp> r-d :it' 395 million bushil s in 13[7-58, or
an increase of 42 ril]icn buus.1.. Shipments to ncr-rurope an countries s re=
f recast at 108 million lurhels r/ are with v.illion :bushels in
1937-.::, or an increase f 9 -r licn busheln.

C". r .red 71 the pa:t season the principal increases in imr orts this
--ar are indicated f r the unitedd Kir.nidom, Italy, and S:"n, :..ile e -
rease appears probable for Greece. rman irpert se m like ly to be main-
tair.ned at a fairly hi 1 level, largely for the pur-. e of building up tccks.
e timates for Europe include a considerable allo:ancr: fcr t ,ck: pur-
chtses arand a. Esu.:aat incrasd utilization of t as fed in .r
count ie s.












* m ffc ff t, ,rau hf ,tr:cut, ral r-.ll: rn r r oc,








- 10 -


TaIe L.-Prod ior- of wc:-it in s- cifi: countries, 1'5-3L to 1'-'359


: 1955-36 : 1963-37 : 1937-38 : 1935-39


'ort, Am 'ic
Un d St tes .......... :
C n . . .

S( ) . ....
Eiorop
England nd Tals.......
Sotl nd ...............:

or,.a ............ .... :

: .e..a.................:
dern..................
lth rlands............
B .-lum ................
Fr* c e .... ..............
Sp ain .................. .
Luxemburg .. . ..
Port-.- ................
Italy ..................
Swit zerland ......... ...:
er :a.y.. ... .............
Austria ............... :
Cz choslovaki ........:
Gre co ................. :
Poland .................
Lithua-nia .............. :
Latvia.................
Estonia................ :
i mla d ................ :



S .ri...............
H o (26) .. ....... ......

v .. .............
Yu o .ilavia........... .
Tota* (U) ...........
To rope (30). ..


1,000 ,0 1,0- C0
bushi s bush is bushels


1,000
bushels


z2 ,44 6: ,766 F73,993 939,972
281, 935 219,218 1S 2,410 358,433
1 j,712 13,606 1__ 0 5 _,6 1 12o 0
1-181_ i 9o 1- S93j__1 i o4Qo5-__ __

60,592 51,445 52,005 64,176
4,1o 3,547 4,181 3,957
362 273 164 l/ 300
6,686 7,F39 6,92o / 7,700
1,809 2,0o4 2,497 I/ 2,600
23,610 21,635 25,720 / 25,353
14V,672 11,266 13,522 3/ 14,000
16,653 15,I328 12,555 15,432
16,101 16,153 15,550 13,482
284,950 254,618 253,537 319,667
157,986 121,492 4/ 132,000 /] 102,900
1,022 1,071 1,206 1,233
22,092 8,651 14,i4o0 1,534
282,760 224,570 296,2.-'46 / 296,960
5,974 4,470 6,221 6,
171,428 162,660 164,120 3/ 113,700
15,500 14,039 14,470 3/ 16,500
62,095 55,523 51,266 65,697
27,1-o 19, 37 32,373 3' ,o09
73, T4 71,357 70 774 j/ -0,800
10,093 1,027 ,1^ 9,076
2,520 5,-72 6,545
2,267 2433 2,78 2646
4,233 51,259 7, 66 7,643
179 236 326 / 300
h 1 10 1 .
S '" n'I'' I ; -I 7 ro li
4,2;4 87,779 72,- 96,414
96,439 128,717 138,158 183,933
7 ,13 0 .. .. 1-00... __
7 3 1 1 --


1 4


,1l55.'A10F- 9LJ F5,








- 11 -


-le 4.-productci c-! of '. 2. p.i 2,


: l0%--'7


: .- 7 *> :Z


-.


NO -'K- :7.?'T F T c .-- P t
Africt
Alri ri,.................
Morocco........ ........:
Tuni sia ......... .......
ypt ......*
Total (4) .............
Asia:


], K)
-~ J- .p~ 1~j* S


33, 3.-
o ,036
416,02


2',774
Q74
12,234
- I ,


*<*-1. :snr
7 ,l0


20, :'.
'7,, 37
4.,


Pal stine ............... 3, 7- 2,795 4,6 2
S--ria and Leb.:non....... 13 ,20 15, 704 17,210
India ...................: 363,216 351,680 364,075
Jap, i ........... .......: 4 ,718, 45, 192 50,4 0
Chosen n..................: 9,747 8,095 ll,041
Tur:'y..................: 92 41 14 -, 2 1 6
Total (6)............ : 7:,, ., ,", _
Total 43 countries s...: 3 ,14~5, 3,003,7o8 3,14 ,C
Est*:-rt d Northern :
H mi.-. re. total, ex-
cluding Russio, and :
C.i::.............. 3 000 3.067 000 3,392,000


3,O 0


3e,33



] .. ..-* -


I/ ,.
1/ 1 0

7/ 45, :
10,333

1 487 000

3,6oo


SCUrTHERN H IS: -- I
Arg ntina ........ .. : 141,462 249,193 184,801 O / 260,000
Au,- rrlia................. : 144,218 151,390 187,870 1_/ 150,000
Union of South Africa.....: 23,709 6077___ 10,157 I/ 11,0)0
T;iaat:d -:or Ld total, :
..xcl1'; : :':.-ia nd :
C?.ir. ............... ...: 3,601,000 3, 40,000 3,83(,000 4,33,CDO


AT proximation.
:'timatc of the London office of the Bureau.
r.timat< of the Berlin office of the ur eau.
Winter *:htat, o'\y..
Estimate of thi Paris office of th : : au.
-: Puris office: of the ir eau r. rds this office l estimate ot bei-.- too .*th.
-tima-te of the .. --?i offic- of h F'reu.
-. .-t. of th .:- -'.e ffice of -th- ail.
3 sed on otherr conditions to date.


Compil d from official dat- :xcept as otherwise not-d.





7ms- 3


e 1 .- Estimated orld::ld nt imports of ":heat, inclu ',-.: flour 1/
into dIficit coumnries, year beginning July
1, 933- o ic3S-7, '-".L, forecast for 1937-38


C) untry : 3-34 ; -3-3 :. 4--~ 1 3 97c5-37 : '37-5-,


193s-39
for cCst I/


U: .u s '-urhi s bush ls pus:s. .s bu'hols bush ls
b l- 0.. ... ........l


D? nmark..........
Fin a.d..........
F a nce. . .

er ........ .
rj c e. . :
Ire o n .... ......:
Letalia .......... :
Latvia .
Ne-herlands.....:
NIor. ay .......... .
For- al........:
Spain...........
SU-it erland.....:
UniS d ci-. c U:3 ..:
Lisicolla rou...:
Total, Europe..:
Non-- rop )Pn. :
countritP3 2 1..
Total world....:


43
12
4
IF
2j 4
11
12
19
S
0
24
9
1
14

216
5/ 2
3 3

123
516


190
4
2/-17
11
10
13
18
10


39
9
4
7
I/
7
15
15
7
2 2
21


i/.


18 17
202 205
35 1 F/ 1
... 35(0


4o
7
4
7
23
10
21
14
54
1
21
9
I/

19
199

S35


146 _2 12]
504 4S2 562


37
7
3
16
47
7
16
14
5
1
24
7
1
3
14
193
7
395


494


39
7
3
16
33
9
13
13
17
0
24
7
2
15
17
217
V/ 5
S437

105
545


]/ Fore cst for hD rope an countries b'y 'rorF a ofic; s of the Bureau of Agricultural
tconomics.
_/ 2 t export.
/ L sns th:.n 500,000 bushels.
.!/ 't efDmorts of I ess than 900,000 bushois.
/ 2 million oush-s not import byr 7.. den.
/ 1 mi lii useL: ls net imports by Cz enoslovakia.
/ 4 mi-ion "uh, t nt imports by Cz choslovakia and 1 million bushel by Sweden.
/ hiprntos s r,-ort d by Bro'i,'.'.- in ao bsnc of reliable estimate of imports
by -z-Zurope'an eoun' ri s.


S... I T 0n niTY:. 1 n 1,. -L 11










Srid .-: r' : r :~T s


T rec e- t. r, r'.> r v -y itr le. rce r lie 't
t a s ituati t lr.r ,c e. .rtu. v r t
nctun ed pclicrs. rof : a 7/ ar "T' t ', ." *j >t;. E _/
*'.:eit dC '7ring th c;rrrt rdr ti n iT fI I IrncT:
t' ble 6 ar :* rccrdin]y, very 1 .ntrtiz .


! :'


:r b t" r c* '

f'n : t *>'.' j:rr^i

;. a c :' -*(.*:: lI


Tbhble C.- .et exp rts, yut*r beiny5n 1, 1<7, 17cr'c.sts 1f

S. 1, 1 1 C,-


Ccuntry :;m t r ... 1___
: ~r t : l : r : ? r ** '
exports : ;x:ort ]/ : .xp rts
S.il. bu. il. hu .. U'i. u.


United t e s ............
Canada ..................
A .- nt in ................
Aus ralia ................
Danube curtri cs .........
Scvi t Euss ia ............
lan i: item ........

Tot fl ...............


100

70


?/ 38
18


494


220
240
150
95
]35


1 0
10

) 1i0


3 0
20


840


I/ cta1 s:: .lies 1 ss do,.e st(i r( ,uir, n>.jts nd ca v r. L/Fartiy .t i2.
/ See text L- 4/ "oth r" ccantrics anrd r. nccOss--ry balracing b-
:weL.n slip>.xnts ,.rd r o< ipts rcsl-t i-.: frc ifP frt-.rces in tiT-e nd aec cu tin.
C r- .: 1 as t ctal net imports (ccmpliput as mn t imports into Eurcp n d deficit
;.rhet countries plus ships''nts tc ncn-Europe.n countries) 1.sc exports.


I:ct since 1931, until t}h
export frcm 1te U'nitfrd Stt.,s b..
which we r h i h 1 y c c tit i v.
du ... a: experts fr:,u t-e United St
(fi ;-:re on : 1), i-nd in 19.4-e
ess!.ry bc;ousc : cf sn'.11 '"'t d S3
and short fe -.d grain supplies. 1
these 3 .crs .vr d 'but 4 T


rcs nt yea.r, hv v. quantity, s available fcr
n, of 1,r, sizc *nd mark ted urdjr cnndiir:i
Exports frorm theft United 7t:t.3 : t itj'- re-
.s. o ~i:; crcps in C:..r;.d'. .d Ar rtir..
. es h.v: decli ed jtei..di>y since t. ",'erld ,'.:r
G6 in -tecs rcros cf hVrd r.d spring. ,nrd durum ;'.:-' ts
f tal imports: for dom ist! utili: ti>:n duri r
r' 't of our tct,.1 doer. :ri ut ii ii(tal 11..


S :. .- ": d dt 4, st te d that the ,' ii Th e "ri
w }ul or"ntiru, its w: rk oc ,ncce. ir.j the '' C..J:,di.;.. *,:.1. t, ".hi h '"ill
aUt alI tiir.s be ,-': r ,itiy on thu v:rld'ts nrk:ts".
/ U-it, d 81t: plicy, k' L
5 *-d S pl aouncd A; :.st 29, ws d.i.red tc er: ble tit- d
-Z; 41!r h~ -. i'wo l







- 14 -


Exports from. he -.-ube Pasir countries, Poland, and northern Africa can
:.-e into trade almost without t regard to foreign competition because of trade
r r.er'ts and barter art- er.errtc.

Thus far this season, exports from the Southern part of Soviet Russia have
been heavier than in any year since lS1, amounting to about 24 million bushels
from July 1 to September 17. This ccmrares with 4 million bushels for the same
priod a ,- r ao. present rapid and heavy movement of wheat from Soviet Rus-
sia is rcbably acceourted for by a probable sizable carry-over of old crop wheat,
the ged harvest in the southern export regions and the early maturing of this
.<.r's crop as well as 1-y the large prcpcrticn of combines used in harvesting wheat
in the south, which tends to increase the quantity of threshed grain available im-
mediately after the harvest. It seems reasoi'ahle to expect a slackening in experts
as the season progresses, especially since crop prcsoects are materially below
those of a year ago.
-x;:.orts of wheat frcm Soviet Russia, while still remaining a i:.tter of
government policy, are likely to be dominated much less by the country's need for
foreign exchange than in 1930 and 1931, when exports were forced far v.yond the
real exportable surplus of the country. The situation is now changed. Long-term
indebtednoes has decreased greatly and there has been a steady increase in the
domestic production of gold.

.7ith a total grain crop probably considerably below that of 1937, a J.:a ily
increasing population, an effort to build up the livestock industry of the country,
and with the necessity to keep considerable reserve stocks for possible emerg.r.-
cies, it does not appear likely that exceptionally large quantities should be
available for export tion in 1938-39. However, the probable existence of a con-
siderable carry-cver from last year's bumper crop adds to the uncertainty always
present in forecasting Soviet Russian exports.

Tables 12 to 15 show the current wheat movement compared with a y..r
earlier.

Prices in for-i-- markets

I heat prices in foreign m .rkcts, where not fix d, continued dovmwrard dur-
in the latt r part of August and early Soptember, influeccAd by upward revisions
in the already large production estimates, liberal offerir s by exporting countries
:with only moderate import inquiry, and heavy marketing of Unit d Stat s and Cana-
dian spring -,h. .t. After September 9, prices temporarily strer thened as a re-
sult cf the political developments in Europe and some increase in inquiry from
importing countries.

S.':.;-u~t 19, United States No. 2 Hard "'inter was quoted at Liverpool at
.8 mr. ts c<: arcd with 67.5 cents for o. 2 Hard Wvintcr at crsas City, or a
tr ad f 16'. counts. Since th!t time prices in Liverpool have been weaker than
in der. i r:' rk ts, causing the spread betw':-en the Decembet futures in the two
rark tt n.rrc"v ubaut 4 cents. On the othl:r h!..nd, cash and futures prices in
K n';ty ave, fIluctuated much the sane. For the week ended September 17,








- 15 -


(t' PC


u ~' r:


table 7, h:1.ile. future es rices ar s ::.: in P.

For F-. r't"s t-. first ti.m ir- hist of t Ar.r-.tir'e cf'f ci .n
1oliticl lif, t, the Chu r r cT D, putis f the :' .aticra.2 C>nrss r.. s r. Y
re crd r v fPvcrinP 0 ; r ricn :withr c< 'r pr in t xpnrtir c: :rtris -i.
disastrous : ':.* t price *:ar ;nd t d. .f :t. t :> c -mon int r.:ts cf t .. .t f'
ers. This form.rl d cl .nrati. n cf rclicy, rmd cn -Smpt z-' r 2, t d t
C ".:''' r .,'u d 1- ple sca if thr 'r.si Lt *cu]d t,-k up -Jth t- : r.r nts :
the Cr-.in ,xrort' ,. ccuntri(s th. question of vcidi.a-, us f.,r s pcs;i., I
.ric ': ,r, ';d that it w*oculd ccc r':tc- .ith oth r countries for th prct cticn
of these prices. After un .nimcus apprrcvyl the resolution w** rf rrd tc t
Co- riitt e n .' r'culture fcr ccnsid ration and stu'd;-. T, C- v rrrmnt ':as
call d upon to establish a rinimumr price for bhe:at producers.


rcblu 7.- cric.'s cf import d eat at Liv-rpcol

: : I :. : .1 t I" '- .
: (Gulf) : rn- Ic. 3 :. :(Pacific) : lin : ch
Frida : lo. 2 :_ tin:nitcba: s s : WhiteI/ : Karachi
:Hd .7: inter: : / : : : I


: r(.ts


1 38
Ju.v :
15
22

; ,.. 5
12
19
26
.2

16


6.8
0.2
91.1
.L .0
87.2
82 .2
.2
--* .


Crt: Cint)s


100.7
99 .4
96.8


91,7
9!.1
83.1


h .8


108.4
10.2
113.0
102.9
96.7
87.6
84.2
84.6

7] .6
79.5


Cents Cents


92.6
87.93
83.8
79.8
77.2
75.4
71.6


60.0
59.7


C rnts


87.2
86.3
P- .5

81.0
76.9
77.7


70.1
75.0


S 8.0
97.1

95.6
9 .5
87.6
82.5


72.
78.


1 .1



3 1.
91.6


P .1


71.0


I/ -.; ire t qu .lifyin, fcr Imrpri~ 1 Fr .frence is x::mpt frcr. duty
:. rexim:t".:, 6 crts p~r bus 1l) 'undr Ctto::,'. 1grcc-rtrs of I v rMbr 1?2.










- 1P -


.- cr -o'.'er f ::. p..t i: ehe2 "nied Stat -for
rs 19e-- v r'.- oot -1 millionn bushels Stocks
:lch b o ccn r ached t, c record p) ac of 378
ion bushels in Four s- '.at crops, ho': ver, r duced
socs on omrr e is o0 about 100 million bushels by
J7. .ti disappearanc during the 1 years 192E-37


D r stic ...'.at prices from phe a ..r:':- of l '3 to that of
37 'r .....unusuall iph rclativ,.. O world market prices, bo-
1.... of our S.IM,,l domestic crops cau'.d c a'g 1:l by abnormally
o :i :Ids p -r cr Duri-.-- 193'-37 both v'orid and don stic
.ric. s t& vnccd sharply .s a result of increased demand and the
maIl.st sup li :' in recent r.arn.

Early in th; 1937-3; sason, d:c. stic and foreign wheat
pric s rose sh,-rply follow'.in reports of serious d-,-c.." to the
Cenadian crop '2and the thr ;at of nru: dim-ae in the United States.
It :':s t .:'hnt sacibl: P.t t.at ti.3e that world d pricto might
rcT. in suffici .nty abov:- ti, 1"36-37 1 v 1 to offset th: decline
in nit d Stat~ prifc .; to an xport bsi. Ho,. v ,r, with an
inner r. in h stiat .s of the world crop, prospects of 1-'
shipmnts from Sovi,.t Russia, a slo. :7 ropean dman-d, disturbed
b sin 'ss conditions, and ', f,21ling general commodity price level,
"h t price as in -'orld markt : declin d.

Un1ite Sta' ;s sp -ly rnd prosrn ctivw ditr' bution

A Unit d St tes ':heat cro of C0 million hbush-. 1 ',s indict at. d by
S. b:r 1 conditions. .his is :. lliin bu.... 1. s ch .he indicaions
f o .' .rier. Add1in- 'this curr t. fi'ire to the c-rr --over of 14 million
h1a tol cu of 1,01 iil ion usch .1. Ttili:- tion -ay mountt
'aut mill ion bshels, "hich :. ].. :i';: Qt 3 nrji' ii n bush Is for
ort crry-ov r. If ,bo- it 100 milli n hush.s z art export d, carry-over
S,39 db .pctd ;d t b million buih Is, or
,"i .. .i. is'rrc : st"'kbs, abot million s uch7 I D rin the years,
L:b oi I t
:3 a -ove.r ot~ocks *ere efr C.or

1 ':-3-9 prop' dctiwe v. :~ t supply and distrilbu-tio b:y .lasses
... .. i i T .z 7:, Situ' tion for August 2'\, pat 24, table Th same issue
S': and i u n t on 4 and 10 '
.......~ 3d t: ,,1 "h *3 N)pLy. .d ib'+i n. t,' l 4 ons ,nd











17 -


..... pric s i i^ d St : ': .r "r u *
month r.o ( 'bl 9) e +h. in f.: ... h I: r: '. r ri
e o r. r c",r .... :; -:;- r. :: :r. .: c3 :r
prica b t::-nt ... in c' rh.u 'i Ti7r .. ',
ari. : f". u :h.'u : 1r fl" .u c '&- r"C.r r 1:. :.. *r

*:,th ps.n il 'ii'. of ;; : r p 7'r .ich-: 1 'r : 'd for
i,-xt'.') t r;


Tabl r. ,:s rc- t av'r c clo'i ri Dc 'r '
in sy ecif i.d fort im Y.r:jd do: ic ;r' ... i..'. t .
table sh?..':s r .ce:;t 1 i.- i d av c K ri', ir. .... -rt .'
rkets c', :.r.d .it h th n or- crr- da... a ."
r rCuy'r


:'x'~


*". e 8.- Aver ..e closi .- rics of b -, r h.t m b cifid e rk:tr
________________ t^r 1'Ht 'i~I; 114_____ 1 4_.7


: '.Ti'm.i- g : Liv r7 ol)
Dat .
---' : -


1:.nth-
July

A.7r .-:
]-:. :<
ended -:
A ... 6 :
13
20
27
S -1.3
10
17 :


i'Lo 4/
Lotv '/


23Li~.] ~ .0


1 23.3
125.4
S.2

1 3

1* .9
, .


73.9
u7.0
S.2
6 .0

63.6


:1 .

:1.1 ..0
*L 7 q .


131.1
129.0
16.8
, 4
130.0
7)*.5


1 .0


;2.





75.7
74.7
?L. 0
(2.2
:7.
71.4


Bu.;o.
V. -. 1-"
- r


: C


-- 124.5 72.9
-- .ll..o


2/?1 2


2/11 .2
/12 .6


72.0 I/12'.6
67.6 1115.'2


1/63. 1
I/..

1/ 1.9
1/57.4
1/61.2


K;/6 .1
r/:7.
)i / .t '


114.6
ll.

0.
10'6
107.5
10 .C


10 .0
12h.O'


-.2
7.
.2
7.
o4.7

.t.


2.5


Ci t
V.. '.... .c7



180.3 7.6
104.3. 1 *1


108.6
107.3

03.
101.2

102. .


1 3.8
:'.


63.
o.o
1.0


59.3
(1.

.9


1I/ C v rso ni at ,::oon bu '. rat '" .chr ,.
t/ --. u LIr / -"t. r "" .....
I uno3 Air s for '* *io d d 7.., ri nht bor e.


S-2.7
1 .
117.4
i11..0

11 .1.
112..
1


72.0
.1

7.


7.
.0
- -.



6^.4







- 18 -


:"1 K .-c .'ei ted ave -e cash price of wheat, specified markets and
dates, 1.7? and ]."-3

:A!9 >las.es: ao. 2 : No. 1 : :o. 2Hard: No. 2 : *etern
:ar.d ra.T i ::Iard '.'inter: '-:.:.. Spring:' r Durum: Red Winter: ".hte
Datc :e. : .rrts:Krans s Citvk:L.innearolis:lir.neapolis: St. Louis :Seattle 1/
:1 '? :1.-. :1o9 7 :1:. :19 7 :1958 :1907 :19 : :1967 :l?r9 :1937 :1939
: ntCent C t C .Ct, Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
:onth-


:11S.7 6 .4 122.5 70.0 151.2 87.6 133.0 79.8 122.0 68.9 110.0 67.8
:107.! 63.8 111.8 65.5 162.8 77.5 113.3 73.1 112.0 65.6 9-.3 61.2


67.6 1.15.2
67.0 111.8
69.3 108.9
71.0 107.8
69.5 107.9
36.8 112.2
66.4 106.6

71.0 125.3
65.9 106.6


67.4 139.0
63.7 137.4
64.6 129.8
65.4 1 0.3
66.7 1. .2
62.8 1.' *.1
64.6 132.0

71.1 156.2
62.8 129.8


,-.5 137.5
76.4 1:..5
76.8 120.9
77.4 114.8
76.2 115.0
75.3 112.8
78.8 106.5

97.6 112.0
75. 106.5


72.1 113.6
74.2 111.2
74.4 109.4
73.5 106.8
69.5 107.4
67.6 111.1
70.2 106.8

-"..4 124.5
67.6 106.8


66.7
63.5
66.3
66.4
66.6
64.1
67.4


102.1
101.2
97.4
94.2
94.6
95.5
91.1


69.1 113.8
63.5 91.1


63.9
59.7
59.8
61.0
62.1
61.0


69.4
59.7


' 1ikly av rage of daily ca
July 9 to August 17, 1958


h (quotations, basis No. 1 sacked.
.nd corresnondin. dates for 1937.


T 1 IC .-". ..at surplus for export or carry-over in three exporting
countries s, United iKin dom port stocks and stocks afloat, Sept.1,
19535-38 1/


Pos tion 195 3 197 6
1: Iil. bu. :il. bu.


195. "
:.il. bu.


1938
::il. bu.


In Camada ...........: ;:48 207 1i- 274
In United St j+^ ...: 19 18 3 1
A r~cnt.inr ............: 46 25 13 25
Austrlia ............. : 42 28 _0 26
Totl ...............: 45 __ _278 144 6____
United K4 VP on- port
o t Ick ............ : 7 8 11 16
Stocks floA t to: :
United KFn;'(o::. .... : 9 1 7 10
Co ti ,n7t ...........: b 7 7 14
:Toc? ............. :___ ____
ot ..............: 36 31
Gra.d tot :. .......: 4__ 310 175 : ]
"1. C'rry-ov'* r -.t th b *L -ini- oft r (C- onvda, July 51; A:,,-. '- i :., January
1; A.u tra.l'i, : cbr 1 of th pr:vitou ;r') p lus or auction minus domestic
ti] 1i :'ition for th y, rr, Ainus m:outhy exports to date.


July
..: *


Au. 6
1>

27
e pt.3
10
17

High -/
Lo:: 2/


10.6
106.6
107.2
109.7
108'.9
110.8
106.3


:.12 .0
:106.3









T ib e 1 .- :t : 7:i;.o 'i i;.tIo> 't c r* 4" JI -
z':tio n "o" i :' ir ," t *uy:r;1 y 19' -::4
to 1 7i :: t .ly ......y 1:' ? i. i June J"".':7



S:t u tit i-' : rt
Cr[op *** *.'. i r:h1:-. "it : *.":..*;';:.;*t iO n *j i [. 1*L. *:,t or. : '. :: '* i
: (t-'rirf : (t-.rif" or' 10 : (*iot'il -*f : *T,': ,z-o:t


: ______________ __i .L/,Z______1 ___________ ___________


>4f 7 '4;
*^v; % '" < -'



5,729
8,] 6, 0..4
9 ,2( ; ,*'. -

(* ,.; "
-c 4.1 '



5,650
C
0
5C J

0
0


1, 6 44





.



S > -
*i )





4 ,. l ,7 -

60 1, J26



i4 710
!01, IC^
1,274
0 ..





"4-C




C
7121

X' ^'. L, ^-G3


,
,.'7 / '17, -
S 17!,6-.

1.
,. -...,
159,043,609

> ".:,-, 151?

119,01? ,090
S, ,




2, 3,
11 ,,




769,719
766,290

," 105
:43,167
1-,
0



7,"
-0
4), -.

6,700
-16 ..O
110, ,


:." ,t. -.. '.' '. .. '. : :.. K. '. ites .:'i:ff sio :, July 1.9. .. to
Dec "._ r 19' .., and from Bureau of Forc in andl Doi. .ti C : ,'-', .Janua 1.'"'.
to -,
1/ p : 1:. June 19, 190, a new cl- ssific nation, ..-:t unlt for hur",n ron-
s,. Ionr, was introduced by the 1'1. 0 T:'i:'f At.
/ t for .*in in bond tor x :t ': r s tv free. : 'i '.. "
june "., i.: "', incluic s :h at r ,'r:un" int.o flour in oc-. for ex-ort to Cuba,
Snw -cl-.- ',cation in t.h 1950 ct. :'ro: June I1, to -.t:br ,

the duty on thief wheat :ualed t:h r; diutiUon in .ub. duty' d thei : ton'iC i
'4tioUn tav .; to t abl
Ston tax '; lible :tr :ty: to '. o imor into Cuba. On
Ste 'cr 5, 191,;6 the *:.. .:tion tax wur :', : :w. : it :.il i:i bond
rovi sion" was i se.C,:-;-. i in 7- '.. a t it'. tion, JanTuay .. ', K '.*- 11-12.


1, 73 ,423
>7:, "-

1,64

161, .






1 .. (
79 -6
.i4r, "k, /

6,05'7



,: /67

,: 19
1020, 77O
5 97,776


12: <-4
1924-25
19:. -26
1v' 6-:.'

Ii.' -






1..* -- .
-7 5










Oct.

i v.
Dec.

Ja '-n.
Feb.




June


4'.. ,060
101, i00
-1, i
103


3, 55g
110
462
566

0









1. 1,- 31 .*:T iuo1 i 7- flour fro. .rinc pal
::orti.. con tries, s f cifio. i-t s, 1537 and 1938

.- : .usrli : L : -ub. : north -ri
----- ___ I3 7 1"----'3-- 7 .
1: -,, 1,.'0 1,0 1,0% 1,000 1.000o 1, 0 1,C 3
:bushels cIOsh-s bushe.ls tushoiLs bushels bushels bushels bushels
J l :3,165 4,54 5,64 8,.04 1,376 552 10,4.0 16,664

..u. 6 8: eO 1,116 1,u12 2,606 472 0 2,512 4,:-3
13 076 1,o02 1,1 72 2,104 504 312 2,560 4,192
20 : 856 600 916 2,104 672 192 4,072 4,376
27 96E 1,572 1,444 2,576 1,51' 672 2,848 3,760
.c't. 3 : 996 1,444 636 2,160 712 144 2,160 4,104
10 : 8932 768 944 1,450 1,144 4_5 2,123 3,416
17 560 1,114 380 1,363 1,6i6 616 2,904 4,196


Co..i cid :ro.. Brco.-.ho.ll s Corn Tr:io :.. :3.


Table 13.- :.:orts of w;hat a-l .-hcat flour fro:: the United States,
1937 and 1938
(Includes flour .illed1 i:n bond fro:. fcroi:n 'v:heat)

crWh'at : a:heat flour : "..hcat incl. flour
____ 1937 : 1930 : 1937 : 19' : 1; 37 : 1938
: 1,00 1,000 1,000 1,000 1 ,0 0 1,09. 7
: ushels busihls barrels barrels bushels bushels

Jl : 2,145 10, 44 264 409 3,385 12,764
7.ok c .d 1/
A:. 6 : 750 1,673 45 36 970 1,842
13 1,404 2,196 40 71 1,672 2,530
20 1,05 2,469 47 25 1,279 2,587
2: 1,3 2, 4v78 3,465 2,642
SoPt. 3 523 1,832 44 70 730 2,161
1 784 558 63 42 1,104 755
17 : 724 508 18 72 o80 846


l a.ta f>or total ex, ,rts fro;.. the Uni ted Stat s by weeks are not available.
Sh.;2 .. :t arc trhe o, ?. of export: t:rou- h 16 of the principal ports.
/ Prei.*: 1:in rof.
Co... ii o ror. rrepcrts of the D,., ar;.r.ot of Co :.:<..rcc.














C. x. y 0' t 1 31 ; 1 ir



.......... ... -
Ar 1 i:. .......... .' 7 -6,I77 1' ,t9 7 :
.o ir .t. :.i.......... .. 4, 5. 4 ,

Y. vi. .. .....: 4.401 7. 17,57.
.... i .... .. 6,7 1 35,
l -'ia ,. ........ .. : 7







Y"~~ Alvicu .2/......23832 134,720 4,1 ,
S...i ...........:1 1444 76 1,114 ,,

:1 ,36 104 29160 1,4 9 1o3 1, 4.




1: 4. ,228 2,363 3,9 'C 1,3-4 4, L
British India ......:. /314,8 1 25,7614 3 647_6 ..1..





.... .....6 2
Tot .. ...........: ,__7_j},2________________ 9,36 .-
:o : Shiprcnts as ivn 1 s, 6r-
;1936-37 :1937-,3 : p. _3__S_.--____ __ __
















Tuil d in :l uc '.:: : o


S .1,c O i, '0 1, 0 OC 1, : ., rign :,
orth 2'._-t r, _/.....: 2 1,832 3 ,720 r ,10c 3,4l6 4 16 .. 29, I ,. 6
A stralia .. .........:i05,:36 12 ,1







-22 -

Tabl, i .-N t imports of h at, including flour, into Buropean countries,
year ef -.i July 1, 1937-38 and 1938-39.


: : t imports reported__
;ry :57-3 :-:-' : July 1 : 1937-38 193S-39
4 :__for cs'st : to : ____
: 'il. bu. Mil. bu. Mil. bu. iil. bu.

Bolgi ..................... : 37 39
'z7 chslovk:ia..............: 1/- 1 4 July 31 2/ 1
D'.r. ark..................... 7 7 July 31 1 1
.Fi.... ...................: 3 3 JTly 1 /
Fr c.c c .....................: .6 16 July 31 1 1
G, rcmy. ..................... : 47 33 July 31 8 1
Austria ...................: 7 9 July 31 1 1
Greece ..................... 1 .6 13
Irel. nd...................: 14 13 July 31 1 1
Italy ....................... 5 17 July 31 4 3/
Latvia ...................... 1 0
therlands ............... 24 24 July 31 2 2
Norway.....................: 7 7 July 31 I/ I/
Poland..................... 0 1 6 July 31 2/ 2/
Portugal ...... ........ .... : 1 2
,--. 2 ...........* ... .. ..: /- 1 1 July 1 3/ I/
S :itz, rlnd .................: 14 17 July 31 1 1
..itd ,idom,... ......... 193 217 July 31 17 18
Total imports of abov.....: 392 422 36 25
Spain........................: 3 15
Total .ortot............. 395 437
Total .............: 2 6


4 et e-- ts
7/ I. -. .:'-. of les than. 50 ,000 bushels.
j/ L.s ,.: o. O,OCO bushels.


3-C.il'd from official sources .-cen. as otherwise stat d.
u~~~c t, al otewiesttd








i7 1:


Oin t he as : f .res nt ersti : es t : r : & r. ....1 .

ducti ni of last .a.r. c ni ia 'r 2 i i ^- 'r ,
above that of 1937. e tree l .rg t Eurc rn rr i:a r r '>nv,
Cechoseov:kiu, combined sho an i .f t ili r. t -
croase, however, may net fully r:ct ria iz ;.s x :U's iv. riuis ir 'z:' "'3 'ki
are reported tc havE reduced t r>. I.rvn.t ub tanti:'.ly .
countries the production this ryo r is irniic'.ted tc be abut 16 iin bh
abLve tha:t "' last ye1r. In Sc iet RL:cci ti. n.'t rvt i: stt: t r r
two-thirds of last r's good crcr

Table 1).- Estimated r-: production in rpecified coutri s

C unt ry 155 1 6 .19 :7 1

:l,0 bushels 1,-00 bushels 1, i usl 1,


C:; A ERICA: :
UnVitd Stats ......a:
C .. ............
Total (2) ........:


-Czfchoslovakia .....:
rE.nm ark ............ :
-. l d -a d il s ..:
E t rni a ............ :
ir.} anrd ..........., :
Franc d .............:
rr.: y ............

tItaly ria ............ :

Italy ...
Latvia ...........
Lithuania ........ .,:
Luxemburg ......... :
I t r3lands ........:
1 rolw .d ............. :

Pcrt. ........... :

.' -de ...... ..... :
dai*n *..............:


58,597
9,606
68,2"3


15,03
64,501
11,177
372
6,804
1.3,760
29,371
2"- ,3:9
24,416
2,183
69
6,225
14,326
25,221
452
18,311
483
2 "3,498
4,635
19,245
16,9 02


25,719
4,281
29,COo


14,059
56,548
7,842
544
6,044
12,174
28,150
290.793
18,610
1,654
68
5,204
11, 60
21,354
449
18, 36
425
250,5'36

1< f, 8 8


49, ;9

53,220


13,583
58, '-6
9, 89
2 0
8,?327
16,982
29,119
272,2 6
15,830
2,579
55
5,701
1 ,479
23, .:
392
18,928

223,.: 9
4, 2
19,---
16,2,50


124
64,8


15,6 2
I/ 66,900
71 ,
7,929
14,074
1/ 2,- ,
T/305,10 .
T/ 22," '
2, .

5,33
14, 3
4, *--
426
20,("

1/265,7-0
T / 4,7
1/ 16, 0
2/ 15,.:


7* itz rland ........: 1, '5 1, 077 1,296 16,21
T t i 22 ...... -- -, I7I-I.II
S. ...... : .. ,

*;,ary ............: 8, 50 C28,114 24,3 5 ,255
iu;Yani*1 ............: 12,724 17, 2 17, 6, 4
Y oli via .........:__ 7,710 3. 1
T ,ot l ( ) ...... : a T .7. ..
Trt .1 (26) ......- ,-: ,
I/ Estimate: of the Berlin office of thu Burc: cf Ac rcutr.] n
,' f'.iit r wch t only.
C-' :iled from i fici 1 dta, *x:pt f s not k.




UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA

3 1262 08861 8326
Chn:e_ 7_- bls I ... ... ...- _at Charts in i. .-at Situation
for Augu2t 35, 1938

P : <.-n' ": .u.:.. distribution, ;x:d siscppearance in c:.t inental United


l: 'ly : stribution
7Crc yp,'rs "o: irot : : iYrnorts I: rDi 'r"c'n.e


:innin: (flour : Tot -l :LYports reportss
July :inclu d): sup ly :(wheat :flodr as : Total
: / : : only) : 71 h at :


1,OdC) ] ,C 0 lC'


: bush.els bushels buLhels bushels bushels
UTith ney: :e-at in corimercial ind rierchant r-ill stocks
1.56 7 : ,'," 971 1b 41,,. 297
1'. 7 : e' 977,b16 F. ,747 16,413 10- 3,481


2.ith only old -'h t in .ll stocks positions
1997 y: &. 9 q 7,d1 8' 7,7 16,12


: Food: and :
:* commercial :


: f. eds
~T,0(T


10 ,481


bushels


497,978
494,091


493,."


1, C'00
bushels


700, 97


700 ,28


3/ F'ro reports of Forei."-. and Domestic Co.rn:erce of the Unit d States. Imports
inlude full-duty vm at, :n at paying a duty of 10 -percent ad valorem, and flour
in terms of wh:at; and exclude flour free for export as follows: -..,742 bushels
in 1K?5-16, and 10,C':- bu'seis in 19u7-53.


"P 6.- l3 y ie(ld sr s3d d -,cro 11.6 bu sels; reduction 939,97..,0 bushels.

o C.- .197, production ,856 million bushne- .

4.-hat: Estite wld n.ly, disap ance and prices.


Y-ar t-:


:Stocks on :


World


July : production : July s ly disap.ar ance
su ;!y dsannar-cee


1 1 7

1'9;3"


1,193
9b3
765
N7 9


i.,738
4,584
),310
I ., 13


7 ,61c3
'7


.-A,1. :t 1 9, P c- ees, Liv .rpool 3-.7 c :nts, No. IHard Wint r,
nts; spr .d 19.2 ',.nts.


: Total


: Total


1,CC .'

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