Wheat situation

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT 3F AGRICULTURE
Bureau of Agriculturl Economics
Washinit )n
WS-19 May 23, 1938

THE WHEAT SITUATI ON
Including Rye


Summary

A world wheat crop a little larger than last year is in prospect if

' early indications in the Northern Hemisphere countries are borne out, and if

yields in Argentina are more nearly normal than in 1937, arnd yields in Australia

are not greatly reduced by drought. Moisture conditions in Canada are better

than they have been in several years, and conditions in Europe are near average

except in the Mediterrrnev.n countries, where prospects are generally unsatisfactory.

An increase of about 3 percent in the world* -wheat acreage for harvest

in 193' is now indicated by available rep,:rts, according to the Bureau of Agri-

cultural Economics. Entiratcs of the 193S wheat acreage in 22 reporting countries

indicate an increase -f 4 percent in the Northern Hemisphere.* These 22

countries represented about g9 pcront of the harvested acr.pge of the Northern

Hemisphere* in 1937. In Australia, however, a decrease of about l- million acres

from last year's seedings is expected. And this decrease, if not offset by in-

creased seedings in Argentina, would indicate an increase of only about 3 per-

cent in the world acreage.* The increase over the 1937 acreage is due prin-

cipally to the lar--e acreage for harvest in the United States and the increased

seedings in the Danutian countries. The acreage increase in three of the

DL.nubian countries more than offsets a decline in 11 other European countries for

which reports are available. Acreage decreases are indicated for Canada and

North Africa.

A winter wheat crop in the Unit-c' Sttcs of 754 million bushels wKs in-

dicated by the May I con6.ition. This is about 4 percent more wheat than was in-

dicated a month earlier. Conditions have been Generally favorable for the early

Excluding Soviet Russia and China.




S-19 2-

seeding of spring wheat although additional moisture is still needed in western

North Dakota and eastern Montana. It is still too early to forecast spring wheat

yields. If yields are average on the .creage indicated in the Mcrch 1 prospective

plantings report, however, a. spring wheat crop of about 200 million bushels would

be produced. If these indications materialize, domestic production of all wheat

woul-d total approximately 950 million bushels. A crop of this size would be

about 280 million bushels in excess of the 5-year (1932-36) average domestic

disappearance of 670 million bushels. If the carry-over on July 1 this year

turns out to be alnout 200 million bushols and exports in 193S-39 do not exceed

those for 1937-3', the carry-over into July 1939 may approximate the record pe-rk

of 379 million bushels carried over in 193".

As at least a partial off-et t the effect of this supply situation on

price, loans provided under the ALricultural Adjustment Act of 1930 would serve

as a check on declining prices. If parity price remains about unchanged, loans

to farmers under the Act would a-vera-e not less than 60 cents, about 10 cents

below current aver cae local market prices.

The trend in domestic and foreign wheat prices is expected to continue

downward as further 7djustnent is made toward the new-crop basis. While pros-

pects at present are for a lar:e world crop, any reverses over wide apres will

be reflected in higher -prices. This is especially true of hard milling wheat, in-

asmuch as the remn.ining world stacks -f gooe quality hard wheat are small.

The area s-v'n to rye in 13 countries f-r which reports are available in-

dicates an increase of about 2 percent compared with the sown acreage last year.

The acreage of rye for harvest in the Unitee. States as of May 1 was estimated at

4,059,000 acres which represents an increase of about 6 percent over the 1937

acreage. May 1 condition was estimated at G2 percent of normal. Germany,Poland

and Czechoslovrykia, all important producing countries, show slight increases. The

condition of fall sown rye in the principal producing countries of Europe ranges

around average.





ws-19


THE WORLD WHEAT S I"ATION

BACKGROUITD.- Total world supplies of -.-h~t, after increasing
frim 1923 to 1933, declined sharply following successive years
of small production ar' increased world denani. The -pp-rent
world disappearance has y.vera--e about 3,770,000,000 b"-i..s
durin- the past 10 years. W rld -prices of h.'-,mt moved stead-
ily upward fr:cn the spring of 1933 to the ali-nnr of 1937,
reflecting hiLoer world connodity price levels, four successive
below--verage harvests in North Anerica, and the 1935-36 short
Southern Hemisphere crop. In 1936-37 wheat prices advanced
sharply at a result of increased c1:.;*-' ainda the smallest
supplies in recent \years.

World wheat production, excluding that of Soviet Russia
and China, in 1937-38 is estimated at 3,325,000,000 bushels,
or about 290 million bushels lar-r than in 1936-37. However,
world stocks on about July 1, 1937, excluding those of Soviet
Rus.sia- nl A. i, were ?b)ut 210 million "'ushels smaller than
a year earlier, resulting in total supplies in 1937-3 about
80 million bushels larger than the small supplies in 1936-37.
Net exports frn) Soviet usnia, in 1937-33 ry be "oat 35
million bushels compared with 4 million bushels in 193-:-37.

Larger world crop t:.n last yer pr',-1 le

Estimates of the 1933 wheat acreage in 22 countries total 205 million
acres or 4 percent more then in these same countries a year earlier (table 1).
This estimrr.ted acren-.e amounts to 89 percent of the 1937 harvested acreage
of the Northern Hemisphere, :-.xcludin Soviet Russia and China.

Most of the acre,-:e increase has occurred in the United States wrhre
substantial increases over the I'.rgo acr. e-e harvested in 1937 are indicated
for both winter and spring wheat. The total v.r.t acr*.a e indicated for harvest
in Canada is 24,719,000 acrcs, connmared --th 25,570,000 acres harvested in 1937.
In the 14 Eur-ipean c-untries reportinr., the 'x.r-- in wheat is placed at
62,234,000 acres, coparel with the 1937 acr.L.,e of 61,480,000 acres.

In Cr-nad a decrease of, 75,500 acres in the area sown to spring wheat
is indicated by farrmrs' intentions as of May 1, PccOrd.ing to the Dominion
Bu-reau of Statistics in Ottawa. The principal decrease is er.po-cted to take
place in SLask-tc.ewan Increases are expected in both Ma:~itoba and1 Alberta.
The acreage of Tlurz:. will be decreased considler-.bly, the intentions for 193)
showing; 1,6b93,C:i... acres, c'-mpared with 2,322,000 acres sown in 1937. This
decrease is expected to take place r-ainly in the important durun producing
Province of M)anitoba, with a substitution of rust-resistrnt bre-:1 wheats more
than offsettin- the reduction in durum. T,-' area of fall wheat rem-ainin- for
harvest is rep-orted at 613,000 acres, which is 15 percent (105,300 acres)
less than the are- harvested. in 1937. The winter-kill this year is estimated


- 3 -




WS-19


Year of IL.r -.-S.


Country


196, : 1937


: L00O acres 1,000 acres


United States:
Winter r 1 ..................... :
Spring 1/ .. .. .............. :
Canada, all wheat ]/........... :
Total (2 countries).......:
Europe: :
Belgium 2/..............
Czechoslovakia ..............:
England and Wales ...........:
France 2/ 3/................. :
Germany 2/ ................. :
Greece ....... ... .. ..
Italy
Lithuania 2/...............:
Poland 2/............ ........
Portugal 2/..................:
Total (10 countries)......:
Bulgaria 2/..................:
Hungary 27...................:
Rumania 2/. .................:
Yugoslavia ./................ :
Total (4 countries).......:
Europe (14 countries).....:
Africa:
Morocco ........... ....
Algeria ....................
Tunisia ..................... :
Egy:pt
Eg opt .. .. o ... .. e
Total (4 countries).......:
India (April estimate).........:
Japan ..................... :
Total (22 countries)......:
Estiriated 1!orthe.-.rn Heridsph:rc :
tot.;l, e:xcludirni US..S.R. aid :
China ........................ :


: 19, 8

s 1,000 acres


37,6-7 46,947 50,677
11,176 17,514 22,232
25,605 25,570 24,719
74,468 90, C'1 97,678


420 422
2,296 2,107
1,704 1,732
12 536 12,77.
4,757 4, 5,
2,065 2,113
12,737 1.2,906
3-.9 U79
2,748 3,736
1,157 1,093
Z1,769 ;1,600
2,596 ~ 5
4,0415 5,"/ ",'7 "
7,720 7,966
5,466 5, 91
19, 927 19,880
61,596 61,4980


429
2,135
1,807
12,352
4,507
2,055
12,439
357
3,731
4/ 1,310
41,171
2,974
5/ 4,139
8,927
5,223
21,063
62,234


,l 3,027 ,,/ 3,0 89
4,297 4,Z 11 4,129
1 ,221 2,429 4/ 1,310
1,464 1,421 1,470
10,166 .i,1F3 010,009
3,666 ",4] 5 33, 706
1,688 1,773 1,757
181,5P4 197,? 1 205,393


215 ,00O


229,800


1/ Acreage harvested, or for hirv-st.
2/ Winter wheat. 3/ Area soe.n up to JTin'arry 1.
4/ Estimated in the Paris office of the Bureau of .:ri cultural Economics.
[/ Estimated in the Belgrade office of the. Bur'-a: of Aricultural Economics


-4 -


Table 1.- 7nheat acreage in specified countries, 1936-1938
(acreage sown, except as otherwise stated)






WS-19


- 5 -


at 9 percent, compared with 3 percent ]a;st. ye._r. The c-nd^ition of full--o.n
wheat on April 30 was reported at 9 .icrccnt -f nornr.l, the san;~ s r.'prrt, a
year earlier. L1isture reserves. have 1teer. ,uil.t U r. ) .:" -- t .f ".-: Prairie-
Provinces and the crap enters the -r'.vin" s:;:-.s'n "uL11.r .n r- f:.'.-rable con-
ditions than in 1937, alth-.u1'gh -nfavor.ble '.7cathcr has -1,T1vie. seeding in
nany sections.

Over much of Earope -Jnje--. .nbly c)l'' vre.t.t,--r, c,.:Lined with *rou-ht,
has retarded the gr;-th if tht crpn. This i are .iil.y true :f France r.nd
of northern Italy. In Fr.rnco, at the Le.-irnir..- -f May, the wheat :as repo-rted
to bc turning, yellow, except )n heavy s:ils; spring whc-'t s.oin.-s were mnde
under favorable conaiti-ns but :;ermination h.s be:.n p-oor. R.'ins '. xcwro received
in Italy about the mni1dl of M'C .it it ic -elic.. th(.y w.ere to.- late to cause
much improvement in the what crop in the no-'thcrn rart of the country. The
4-.-. 41--- -~- 1 n cmit-, -rn no-tiDns ben.efiteCL, h.w.ver. A nuch reduced.





COCRRECTICN in table nage h4 of "The Whe.at Situation",Vav 23,197?

The 1937 acreage for s-rin- wheat in the TTrited States is thit indi-
cated for planting and not for harvest. The seed.-:d acreage in 10-6 was
23,959,000 acres and in 1937 was 23,750,000 acres.






The first estimate of the pr- auction in In:.r-. lazes thj cr-,I: at 330
million bushels. This is the third l.r--est crop on record, and the quality
is said to be avor; a or above average,

The A.ricult-ural Commissioner at S'-.in-..ai, reportirn- on conditions in
China, states thr1.t wc.a.thr cond-itions :.re favorable in the Hankow rc.-ion, but
hePa.-y r-;in in the loTwer Y~ngtze Valley is coiisi.7.lred somewhat unfavorJable.
Elrly, infor".-.tion india,.tes a crop uqqu-.l to or -s ic.'htly larerr t...n that of
l.s-T yerr. R p -rtir.. on the J-p-neso crop, the Conrissioner estinr'te::, that
the crop nri.y ,'e 95 to 100 percent of the 1937 crop, de,_ in: on the we their
b(:t"Cen. nv z.r L-rvest tine. He calls attention to the fact t" t, although
the prese,-t Tr..eral c'onc'ition of tho crop is normal, the nost critical period
will come leter in "he Le-in.

In Ar'-rntina fisld w.rk for v.-..at se-.in is progrcssin- actively, and.
it 1is s:-et thint an e -.c: o l:.r.-.r than that rof last year will be seemed
if conditions continire favorable.







Plins received in Australia have been insufficient to breck the prolonged
drought. A decrease of 1.5 million acrus iror2 last.year's seedings is expected,
and termination n is said to be unsatisfactory. Because of cried up pastures in
the interior, wheat is still beiif, fed to liv:s)ock.

In Soviet Russia, where sprin; swings were "ehiri/'. schedule for sone
time, the sowings are now reported ahe-d of those f'-r Lh. saaie period in 1937,
and the condition of the winter s,'wn crop is -;o-d.

Some increase in the forecast of world tr ai.6 rroba,1

It now appears that the Bureau's forecast of net imports of 495 million
bushels of w.heat by 1tficit countries, for thu yJr hbe:,inning July 1, 1937,
may be revised upward in June by perhaps 10 million bushels. The revisions will
include some increase for Spain and Pirtnsal. Comparable import figures for a
year earlier were 563 million bushels. Ta"leq S to 11 show figures on the move-
ment of wheat in international trade this season compared with corresponding
periods and totals for other years,

Table 2 shows the estimates wheat surplus for exp-rt or carry-over on May
1 in the four principal exporting countries, te-ether witn United. Kingdom port
stocks and stocks afloat. These total 425 million bushels which is 127 million
bushels more than a ye?.r earlier but 3h million bushels less than on May 1,1936.

With the first estimate of the 1;S vrhep.t crop in India placedL at 380
million bushels and the carry-over on April 1 -,omewni.t miller than in 1937,
total d-)::estic wheat supplies in India are about the sar.e as those for last
season, when about 3CC million bushels were harveste,., With the probability that
a larger quantity will be used domestically in 193.-3", e-xprts of wheat, in-
cluding flour in tcrnm of wheat, are expected to be abLut 17 million bushels _/
compared with 19 million bushels exported fr-:.) April 1937 through March 1939, -
the largest amount expj:rted since 19Sh-25 when 46 million bushels were shipped
over-seas.

United States exports of wheat and. flour nado wholly of domestic wheat 2/
in terms of grain totaled 68 million buKJtls from Jaly 1, 1937 through March
this year, and shipments to our possessions renchcC. 2 million bushels. Exports
during April, on the basis of weekly reports, will probably approximate S million
bushels. Therefore, fr.m July thro3uh April Unitud States exports together with
shi-pments of wheat may apIrrximate 73 million bushels.

If Forecast by J. Barnard Gibbs, Assistant Agricultural Cor.missioner, Calcutta,
India.
2/ Estimate in "The Wheat Situation", April 23, 1933, included flour made from
imported wheat.


- 6 -




WS-19 7 -

Table 2.-Wheat surplus for export or carry-over in the four principal
exporting countries, United Xingdom port stocks and stocks afloat,
May 1, 1935-38 3 J


Position : 1935 : 1936 : 1937 : 1938

I 1 a Mil"u MiJa bu Mil. 1bu
United States:
In United States .............. : 133 109 72 217
In Canada ..................... : 1 0 0 1
Canada:
In Canada ..................... : 237 203 65 46
In United States ...............: 12 12 10 1
Argentina ....................... : 97 42 33 49
Australia ....................... : 6_2 1 62
Total .......................... 4 2 5
United Kingdom port stocks ......: 11 10 12 9
Stocks afloat to:
United Kingdom ................: 15 14 14 1
Continent .......... ............: 7 10 24 14
Orders .......................... S l 13
Total .......................: 41 42 61
Grand total ... .. .... ....... : _50 .-5 29 42
1] For other than the United States: Carry-over at the beginning of the year
(Canada, July 31; Argentina, Ja.nuary 1; Australia, December 1 of the previous
year) plus production, minus domestic utilization for the year, minus monthly
exports to date. For the United States: Y'.ar-end stocks minus imports for
the year plus May-June exports and shipments (1939 figure based on carry-over
on June 30, 1938 of 201 million bush:-Is, imports of 1 million bushels, and
May-June exports of 17 million bushels).

Fore pr_:ce co2ntinuc weak

After an advance during the first half of April, influenced by drought
damage in Italy and North Africa, wheat prices in foreign markets have moved
generally downward because of favorable prospects for the North American wheat
crop, heavy offerings of Australian wheat, and a slow demand. By the middle
of May, however, foreign markets displayed a firm tone despite forecasts of
a large North American crop. For the week ended May 13 prices of United
States Hard Red Winter and White wheat were relatively low compared with
prices for wheat from other countries. Prices of Indian wheat are higher
compared with prices of Pacific White and Australian, reflecting average or
above-average quality of the newly harvested Indian crop.

Table 3 shows Friday prices of imported wheat at Liverpool from six
countries including the United States, and table 6 the closing prices of
July futures at Winnipeg, Liverpool, -and B]enos Aires, and at Chicago,
Kansas City, and Minneapolis.




WS-19


Table 3.-Prices of imported wheat at Liverpool


Hard: ......t... Soft heats
Date : U. S. : Argen.- : COnada : : U. S. : Austra- : India
(Frida:-. (Gulf) : tine : No. 3 : Russian :(Pacific): lian : choice
:No. 2 Hd. : Rosafe : Manitoba: : White : _] : Karachi


: Winter : .
: Cents Cents


1938
Jan.
7
14
21
28
Feb.

11
18
25
Mar.
4
11
18

Apr.
1
8
14
22
29
May
6
13


128.1
129.4
129.7
126.7

126.1
125.5
121.9
122.3

2/ 126.1
21 117.3
I1 116.2
2/ 117.0
2/ 116.3
J2 112.5
2 114.0
2/ 116.9
2/ 112.2

2/ 109.2
2/ 110.3


Cens Cents Cents CCnts CietA


153.9
154.4
148.4
152.0

143.3
144.4 .
!--.

144.3



130.9
130.2

134.2
137.3



126.3
125.1


132.6


123.8
117.3
114.6
105.4

107.0
101.6


114.l
113.1
112.5
112.6

114.4
113.0
109.3
112.1

110.4
105.6
104.6
101.5

103.9
100.9
98.5
99.7
97.4

95.1
95.6


116.4
117.0
116.4
116.5

116.7
116.9
115.6


113.5
112.6
106.9
105.4

103.2
100.9
102.4
107.5
105.2

95.1
101.8


116.5

115.1
113.8
112.4
114.1

107.4
104.2
103.0
101.5

o101.6
100.1


102.9

100.6
98.7


]J Empire what qualifying for Imperial Preference is exempt from duty
(approximating 6 cents per bushel) under Ottawa Agreemonts of November
1932.
2] No. 1 Dark Hard Winter.
THE DOMESTIC WHEAT SITUATION

BACKGROUND.-The carry-over of wheat in the United States for
the 5-year period (1924-28) averaged about 115 million bushels.
Stocks which began to accumulate in 1929 reached the record peak
of 378 million bushels in 1933. Four small wheat crops since
that time, however, reduced stocks to about 100 million bushels
by July 1, 1937. Domestic disappearance during the 5 years
(1932-36) averaged 670 million bushels.


129.7
134.1
130.5
126.7

129.2
129.5
128.1
123.1

126.9
121.2
117.0
113.9

117.1
114.8
114.0
115.3


103.7
112.7


- 8 -


: Winter :
: Cent____!s C n_ ts






WS-19


Domestic wheat prices from the spriA-i of 1933 to that
of 1937 vtEre unusually high relative to world market prices,
because of four small domestic crops caused largely by abnormally
low yields per acre. During 1936-37 both world and domestic
prices advanced sharply as a result of increased demand and
the smallest 'supplies in recent years.

Early in the 1937-38 seaunon, domestic and foreign wheat
prices rose sharply following reports of serious damage to the
Canadian crop and the threat of rust damage in the United
States. It was thought possible at that time that world prices
might remain sufficiently above the 1936-37 level to offset the
decline in Uz.ited States prices to an export basis. However,
with an increase of over 100 million bushels in the estimate of
the world crop, excluding that of Soviet Russia and China, the
likelihood of large shipments from Soviet Russia, a slow European
demand, disturbed business conditions, and a falling general
commodity price level, wheat prices in world markets have declined.
The price of whuat at local United St rates markr.ts, weighted by
monthly sales, will average noi--c-hat under $1 a bushel in 1937-38
compared with $1.03 in 1936-37.

Crop prospects some larger than a month ego

A winter whr-t production of 754,153,000 bushels was indicated on
May 1. This is 28,446,000 Yushels or about 4 percent nore than indicated
a month earlier. Last yeer's production was 685,102,000 bushels and the
1O-ye-ar (1927-36) average production, 546,596,000 bushels.

The acreage of winter wheat remaining for harvest is estimated at
50,677,000 acrus, compared with 46,946,000 acres harvested in 1937 and
the 10-year (1927-36) average of 37,281,000 acres. This year's acreage
for harvest is the largest on record. The previous record harvested
acreage was 50,404,000 acres in 1919.

Of the near-record sown area of 57,316,000 acres for h-wrvst this
year, about 11.6 percent has b-en abandoned. This is substantially below
the 18.5 percent aliandonment of last year and 18.2 prre(nt, the 10-year
(1927-36) average. The heaviest loss of acreaCe has occurred in the
Western Great Plains area, where dry soil conditions at sending time last
fall prevented proper germination and plant development before winter set
in. Wheat in this area was also adversely affected by an acute shortage
of subsoil moisture and by extensive damage from soil drifting. In the
remainder of the country, except in the Southeastern States, abandonment
is much below avera.ge.

May 1 prospects indicate a probable yield of 14.9 bushels per
harvested acre compared with 14.6 bushels for 1957 and 14.5 bushels, the
10-year (1927-36) average harvested yield. While the improvement in
winter wheat prospects during April i.:s quite general, most of the in-
crease took place in Kansas and Nebraska.


- 9 -





WS-19


- 10 -


Since May 1, rainfall in the hard winter heat States has b-'en
greatly in excess of normal and favorable to the spread of black stem
rust, which has now made its appearance. And in parts of Oklahoma and
Kansas recent heavy rains and wind have caused considerable lodging where
growth was rank.

Rainfall in April and the first 3 weeks of May has been above average
in the spring w'hent areas, except in eastern Montana, where recent rains
have partly offset the great deficiency in April rainfall. Northern
Minnesota and eastern South Dakota have received more than normal rainfall.
As pointed out last month 3/, April and May precipitation is very important
in the production of the spring wheat crop. Spring wheat production will
be estimated in the Bureau's Crop Report on June 10.

Carry-over July 1, 1958 again estimated at about 200 million bushels

Wheat stock in the United States on April 1 were estimated at 332
million bushels, 121 million bushels larger than a year earlier, and 61
million bushels more than on April 1, 1936. Table 4 shows estimated stocks
in the different positions beginning with April 1, 1932. Stocks on January
1 were estimated At 534 million bushels, and the January-March net exports
and shipments of ',-heat erd flour made wholly of United States wheat totaled
approximately 30 million bushels. With April 1 stocks at 332 million
bushels, a January-March disappearance of 172 million bushels is indicated.
The disappearance during theF July-December period wcs placed at 391 million
bushels. Disappearance from Janu:.ry through March 1937 was estimated at
165 million bushels, and that for July-December 1936 at 416 million
bushels.


T.blc 4.-Wheat stocks in the United States on April 1, 1932-38



Item 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938
: Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil.
: bush. bush. bush. bush. bush. bush. bush.

On farms ...................: 172 183 119 99 99 71 125
Interior mills and elevators: 69 96 87 68 50 39 73
Commercial stocks ..........: 207 136 97 52 50 35 54
Merchant mills, including
stored for others 1/ ......: 92 100 92 75 72 66 80
Total stocks .............: 540 515 395 294 271 211 332
1/ Bureau of the Census raised to rcprusent all merchant mills.


3/ "The Wheat Situation", April 1958, p-ge 10.


! I Ill I! I!




WS-19 Ll -

Table 5 shows the oAti.atod Jupo',ly aFid distribution of wvhcat for the
5 years 1932-33 to '1.3,'-37 ,n, rrais.--.- fi,--res for 1937-3-3 which ar' partially
forecasts 4/. Chan-n--c froki the prev'iou.uly pu'lishe,! fl.furos ftro very sai]l.
It nov appears thnt e:.ports of s.h:t .nl flour i*. t r'..;.' n.t, .:.-turing the
years from July 1937 ti-rou.h Jun. 193-', T', -sily b ye lar;, --r than
the 95 million bushels previousl.- reodict:-.1 by the Brer:.a. 0:" tl.o hbsis of
reported exports throu:;h I jarch, '(d "ei 1; i.dicCati oi-s 1,o 0 'at, it would d
appear that e-:ports ._~y "..jww.t ..*c.:,d 95 mri'i-,n. T'. quantity of .hat
reported by far.crs as uc3dr for f.edi th.ic ,' r h-is n:-t bc.n sucr-.2ri"ed to
date rnd the forecast of dis..;apervnaco 1s pro.bly, th,,ro-re, --e.Ai:at less
accurate than it *v'ruld be.'.'-re such su.ii.ry,- ovaila'-le. The qu-rLtity of
wheat fed lar,.1ly accounts ior the variatior. in total a:nuu-l doc-,stic disap-
pearncoe.


4/ Supply ard distribution by cTlss-,S \Ws pu'.lished in "The WheOt Situation,"
February 193S, page 10.

Tablu 5.- SuoTly and di'tr.buti.:.n of whoat, 1-32-33 to 1937-3'

Item : 1932- : 1933- : 1934- : 1935- : 193T- : 1937-
_____ .3 : : __ : 36 : 31. 3S
i ].n illin Mi ion i ill io. :iionon M.:illi on
:bashels bustiels bushels bushels bushels bushels

Stocks July 1 1/ ......: 375 37S 274 148 142 103(2/ 91)
New crop ..... ... 757 552 525 626 627 7i74
Imports 3/ ............: --- 1___ 34 34 1
Total supply .....: 1,132 930 316 C '03 978(2/966)
Epaorts & shipments 4/..: 35 29 13 7 12 95
Stocks Tune 30 .......... 379 274 148 142 103(2/ 91) 201
Disappearance 5/ .....: 719 627 655 659 6S(2_/700) 692(2/670)

l/ Coriparable series of July 1 stocks contains 3ore new wheat. 2/ In 1937
new wheat was estimated at 12 million bushels, .hvich if deducted, would result
in stocks on July 1 )f 91 million buh.i:.: .a d a di sappeara.ce of 670 million
bushels. 3/ From r'-ports of Foreign an:d D.-i'Jtic Commorce of the United States.
Imports include full-duty wheat, wheat paying a duty of 10 percent ad valorem,
and flour in te'-rns of vhcat. 4./ From reports of Foreign a.id Domestic Co'_-.erce
of the United States. Reports and shi'plents include regular exports plus
shipr-.ints to Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico, Pnd include wheat and flour r-ale
whlly from do.> stic -.:,heat.
/ Balaucin, item.

Price trend do,-_v.ar toward new crop basis

Wheat prices in domestic -2ark,_.tlh are now at a lo,':--r level than a month
ago. Advancing v'h'?t prices in foreign .arLet. during the first half of April
served to check the decline in d inestic prices which has taken place since
early January. During the last half of April do:netic prices declined, in-
fluenced largely by favorable pro:e'ccts for the I.rth Anerican -vhcat crop.
During the first half of May prices were mostly firm, although spring wheat
prices declined with promising crop pros3.ects in the sprln.: wheat area.
Tables 6 and 7 show wheat prices at specifi-od domestic 'tr'd,'f orei n r3-.r:ets.





- 12 -


The trend in domestic and foreign wheat prices is expected to continue
downward as further adjustacnt is made toward the new crop basis. Whilo
prospects at present are for a larc:e ,.-orld crop, any reverses over wide areas
will be reflected in higher prices. This is especially true of hard milling
wheat, since renaininl world stocks of god quality herd wheat are small.

As at least a partial offset to the price effect of large prospective
wheat supplies, loans provided under the Agricultiural. Adju-tm.ent Act of 1938
would serve as a check on declininC prices. If parity price remains about un-
chanrrd, loans to farmers under the Act v.ould average not less than 60 cents,
which is about 10 cents lo'-ver than current average local market prices.

Table 6.- Average closig prices of July wheat futures, specified markets and
d_____ __1937 and 193g
: Winnipeg : Liverlool: Euenos : Chicago : Kansas : Minneap-
Date : li / l_ :Aires 2/ : : City : olis
:____ ;937 _:93 :. 7 :193_ :1937 :138 :1937 :1938 :1937 :1938 :1937 :193S


:Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Conts Cents Cents Cents Cents


:1.27.0
127.5
13- 7.2
142.0



'51.2,


133.9
13. .4
137.7

151.2
133.5


114.0
111.5
1C3.4




* 5
101.0
102.5
'100.3
92.7
97..4

102.5
97.4


--- 114.6
--- 11S.o
121.9
--- 122.4


117.7
120.2
119.3
1.21 C
121.6
119.4

121.6
117.7


100.5
100.2
95.3
98.2
93.2

100.5
93.2


128.2
127.2
122.1
119.7
117.6
113.2
116.2

127.2
11ii. 2


39.9
39.9
?.4.2
50.9


S2.1
80.2
31.0
52.3
79.9
73.7
73.6

62.3
73.6


110.1
111.2
117.0
1.17.9


123.0
122.5
117.4
115.4
113.7
11.3.9
112. 6

122.5
112.8


37.3 131.9
?7.1 131.1
Co.6 135.0
76.9 133.6


7S.2 141.4
75.9 133.9
76.9 133.6
73.2 130.2
76.2 127..6
75.3 127.6
75.1 125.5

73.2 138.9
75.1 125.5


Month :
Jan. :120.0 11S.3
Feb. :121.7 119.0
Mar. :131.9 110.5
Apr. :134.9 111. 6
Week
ended -
Apr. 2:143.1 109.3
9:142.4 110.3
16:133.6 113.7
23:131.1 113.5
30;127.7 110.0
May 7:129.3 10:.7
14:127.3 105.6

High I/ :142.4 113.7
Low 3/ :127.3 105.6


Cbnts.

102.1
101.6
54.8
39.9


92.4
89.7
90.2
91.2
88.2
85.4
85.7

91.2
85.4


j/ Conversions at noon buying ratt, of &:ch-,nge. 2/ June futures. 3/ April 9
to May 14, 193 and corrcsnondin3 dates 1937.


---


Ws-1.9





- 13 -


Table 7.- Weighted average cadj price of .'heat, specified rnarkets and
d_ ates, i93L and 1938 ___
:All classes: No. 2 : lu. 1 : No. 2 Hard: No. 2 : Western
Date :nnd grades :;Hard Wintor:Dk.N.SpringtAmber DurumaRed Winter : White
:six marketsiKansas City:JirieapolisjcMinneapolis:St. Louis :Seattle 1/
:1937 : 1.938:1937 1 93:1537,.193:tl937 : 1939:1937 :193S :1937 : 1939
Month :Cents Cents Cents Cents Cent's Cents Cents Cents Cents CentsCents Cents
Jan. :l1W.3 102.u 133.0 102.7 15- 5 1?7.0 171.3 108.7 139.6 100.2 112.2 88.9
Feb. :13".5 93.s 136.5 99.6 i59.4 125.1 170.0 110.1 143.2 99.3 114.4 90.0
Mar. :141.6 93.0 133.6 91.5 153.0 119.2 193.2 105.3 143.0 91.6 117.0 86,2
Apr. :140.. 96.2 1.40.0 g4.6 160.0 110.5 172.0 100.0 143.6 35.0 119.5 81.4


Week I
ended :
Apr. 9:145.5
16:138.4
23:137.0
30:131.3
May 7:133.0
14:129.S

High 2/ :145.5
Low 2/ :129.8


35.6 144.5
?6.3 135.9
87.7 137.4
g4.4 134.0
83.9 135.6
84.9 129.7

37.7 144.5
83.9 129.7


1/ Weekly average of daily
2/ April 9 to May 14, 1938


F3.9 169.8
95.3 155.3
E6.1 153.5
S2.9 150.14
o0.6 141.6
31.9 146.3


109.1
110.0
115.0
108.5
113.1
106.3


164.2
160.8
152.5
124.6
127. S
127.9


98.7 144.7
97.7 142.3
101.4 ---
100.7 135.5
93.0 135.3
39.3 130.7


?6.l 119.E 115.0 164.2 101.4 144.7
o0.6 141.6 106.3 124.6 -9.3 130.7
cash quotations,basis No. 1 jacked.
and corresponding dates for 1937.


85.6 122.0
S4.8 119.8
85.7 119.1
83.2 116.g
79.7 117.3
79.8 112.1

85.7 122.0
79.7 112.1


82.2
30.2
82.0
80.2
79.8
79.3
82.2
79.3


ACihAGE- AID CONDITION OF FALL SOUIN RYE

Estimates of the acreage sor"n to rye in 13 countries for which reports
are available indic,.te an increase of 2 percent, co-pared with the estimated
acreage sovwn last year (table 12). The acreage of rye for harvest in the
United States is estimated at 4,059,000 acres or about 6 percent'above the
acreage harvested in 1937. The indicated yield per harvested acre, estimated
as of May 1 at 12.8 bushels, is above the 1927-1936 average of 11.3 bushels.
The indicated production this year is 51,755,000 bushels, compared with the
1937 harvest of 49,449,000 bushels. The May 1 condition of the crop was 82 per-
cent of normal. Table 13 shov.'s acreage, condition, and production in important
producing states and the total for the United States for 1935 compared with
the last 2 years.

The intended Canadiun acreeae of all rye for harvest in 1938 is 661,800
acres, compared with 893,700 acres in 1937. Winter-kill this year amounted to
9 percent cooparud with 3 percent last year. The condition of foLl rye on
April 30, estimated at 94 percent of normal, was the same as a year ago.

In the principal rye producli- countries of Eurrpe the May 1 condition
of the winter rye crop range:i around average. In Poland, the condition is below
average, in Germany slightly abovo >ver-ge, and in Czechoslovakia about average.
The condition in Lithuania is reported at 97 percent of narial.


ws-19




- 14 -


Table 8.- Movemnt of wheat, including flour, from principal
exporting countries, 1934-35 to 1937-38


Exports as given by official sources
Country : Total : July 1 to date shown: Date
:19-35:1935-36 :1936-37:1935-36:1936-37:1937-S8:


: 1,000
: bushels


United States 1/....: 21,532
Canada ............. :169,630
Argentina ..........:167,000
Australia ..........:1C8,007
Russia ......... ...: 4,286
Hungary ............: 12,499
Yugoslavia .........: 4,401
Rumania ............: 3,432
Bulgaria ...........: 375
British India ......: 2,318


Total .........:513,480


1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels


15,929
237 ,447
76,577
102,258
29,704
14,644
728
6,391
988
2,556


21,584
213 028
162,095
95,970
4,479
27,428
17,302
35,5'10
7,3 273
14,674


11,589
180,412
64,625
64,614
27,540
9,190
124
9,996
954
1,331


15,584
189,497
130,980
54 ,049
2,762
20,905
11,115
24,237
5,085
8,061


73,887
81,215
50 ,047
60,970
33,766
6,996
4,626
26,760
5,945
2,890


4807,222 590,363


North America 2/....
Canada,4 markets 3/.
United States ......
Argentina ..........
Australia ..........
Russia .............
Danube & Bulgaria 4/
British India ......
Total 6/.......


ShipiLents as given by trade sources
: Total : '."ek ended 1937-38 : July 1 May 14
:1935-56:19.'6-37 :Apr. 30:1-lay 7 :May 14: 1936-37 : 1937-38
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
:bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels

:220,464 225,902 4,104 3,816 3,691 200,536 158,851
:246,199 194,531 3,128 1,757 2,356 178,003 75,208
: 7,219 10,049 2,777 2,551 2,288 8,114 74,197
: 79,312 164,678 1,384 1,484 1,018 154,310 57,616
:110,576 105,836 5,480 3,784 5,252 86,072 109,192
: 29,024 88 904 200 240 88 40,032
8,31. 65,544 208 272 176 57,976 35,368
:5/2,556 5/14,6174 88 144 120 8,936 12,586
:440,244 570,722 507,918 413,645


Total European ship-:
ments 2/...........:360,264


484,600


10,609


7/403,502


7/333,008


Total ex-European :
shipments 2/.......:131,760


127,192


2,000


7/110,800 7/ 80,296


i/ Includes flour milled in bond from foreign wheat.
2/ Broomhall's Corn Trade News.
3/ Fort William, Port Arthur, Vancouver, Prince Rupert,.and Jlew Westminster.
4/ Black Sea shipments only.
5/ Official.
6/ Total of trade figures includes North America as reported by Broomhall's but
does not include items 2 and 3.
7/ To Anril 30.


WS-19


Mar.
Apr.
Mar.
Feb.
Jan.
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
Dec.






- 15 -


Table 9.- Shipments of wheat, including; flour from principal exporting
countries, specified dates, 1936-37 and 1937-38

Period : Argentina : Australia : Danube : North America
:1936-37:1937-38:1936-37:1937-38:1936-37:1937-38:1936-37:1937-38
:1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
:bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels


July-Mar.
Week ended-
Apr. 9
16
23
30
May 7
14


:128,934 49,016 72,992 80,152 48,360 32,872 182,560 140,960


7,536
5,504
5,992
2,572
1,696
2,076


1,032
1,888
1,824
1,384
1,484
1,018


1,992
2,044
2,624
1,128
2,236
3,056


4,520
6,016
3,988
5,480
3,784
5,252


488
1,320
1,184
2,368'
2,640
1,616


688
624
528
208
272
176


2,248
2,880
* 2,048
3,136
2,792
4,832


1,456
2,488
2,336
4,104
3,816
3,691


Compiled from Brccrhall's Ccrn Trade Nev.s.




Table 10.- Exports of wheat and wheat flour from the United" States,
1936-37 aind 1937-38
(Includes flour milled in bond from foreign wheat)
Period : Wheat Wheat flour : Wheat including flour
: 1936-37 : 1937-38 : 1936-37 : 1937-38 : 1936-37 : 1937-38
1: ,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
bushels bushels barrels barrels bushels bushels

July-Mar. : 1,866 56:,604 2,919 3,677 15,584 73,887
Week ended-
Apr. 9 0 538 35 92 164 970
16 : 0 1,217 10 55 47 1,475
23 : 48 1,378 41 52 241 1,622
30 : 84 2,584 41 41 277 2,777
May 7 : 66 2,114 41 93 259 2,551
14 : 75 1/2,076 28 1/45 207 1/2,288


Compiled from reports of the Department of Commerce.
from the United States by weeks are not available.
of exports through 16 of the principal ports.


Data for total exports
These data are the total


I/ Preliminary.


WS-19




WS-19 16 -




Table 11.- N-t imp-rts of wheat, including flour, into European countries,
year beginning July 1, 1935-37 and 1937-30


Count ry


l935-37


_: Net imports reported
:1937-3S I/: July 1 : 9 1937-3.
:forecast : to : 1936-37 ; 1937-38


Austria ...............: 10
Belgium ...........: 40
Czech)slovakia ,,,,...,:2 -11
Dernark ,..,*..........: 7
Finland .........,..: 4
France ................: 7
Germany .............: 23
Greece ...*.....*. 21
Ireland s ..............: 14
Italy .............,...: 54
Latvia ,,.........i...: 1
Netherlands ...........: 21
Norway ..,,......#.. ...: 9
Poland ..,,,....,,.....:2/ -6
Portugal ....,.........: 4
.Sweden ..... ........ ..: _*
Switzerland ...........: 19
United Kingdon ........ 199
Total imports of above: 429
Spain ................: 6
Total imports ........: 435
Total exports ........: 017
Total, net imp-rts ...: 41iC


10
40o

6
3
21
29
13
13
10
1
24

0
3

16
200
397
3
400
2
393


Feb.
Feb.
Mar.
Mar.
Feb.
Jan.
Mar.
Jan..
Mar,
Mar.
Feb.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Jan.
Mar.
Mar.
Feb.


Mil. bu.

5
28
2 -5
6
2
4
2
12
11
25
3J
16
5
3/

13
133


Mil. bu.

4
27
2/ 2
5
2

37
8
11
5
1
18
5

i/
-I
126


*
* S


262
11
251


268

265


Compiled from official sources except as otherwise stated.
j/ Based on forecasts by European offices of the Bureau of
Economics.
2/ Net exports.
Less than 500,000 bushels.
Net exports of less than 500,000 bushels.


Agricultural


.


: Mil.bu. Mil. bu. :





- 17 -


Table 12.- Winter rye: Acreage sown in specified countries,
1936-58


(Acreage sown, except as otherwise stated)

Country Year of harvest
: 196 : 1937 : 1938
1,000 1,000 1,000
acres acres acres

United States 1/ ............... : 2,757 3,839 4,059
Canada: 2 ...................... : 625 894 662
Total (2) .................. : 3,382 4,733 4,721
Belgium ...,..,...*.,........... : 385 375 380
Bulgaria ..................... : 402 426 436
Czechoslovakia 3/............... : 2,510 2,413 2,453
France /....................... : 1,611 1,620 1,621
Germany ........................ : 11,006 10,122 10,285
Greece ......... .............. : 160 160 4/ 171
Lithuania .................. .. : 1,207 1,251 1,327
Luxemburg .*.*.......*.......*.. : 19 15 15
Poland .......................... : 14,346 14,076 14,471
Rumania ......................... : 1,021 1,052 1,102
Yugoslavia ...................... : 551 544 530
Total (11) ................. : 33,218 32,054 32,791
Total 13 countries ......... : 36,600 36,772 37,512

I/ Harvested or for harvest.
All rye, harvested or for harvest.
All ryre.
4 Sowings to January 1.


Table 13.- Acr;Lge, yield, cnd production of rye in the United States

:Acreage : Yio3d per acro Production
:left for -- :
State : harvest : 1927- : 1937 :Indicated: 1927- : 1937 :Indicated
:for grain: 36 : : 198 : 36 : : 1938
: 19.8 :
: 1,000 : : : 1,000 : 1,000 : 1,000
: acres : Bushels : Bushels : Bushels : bushels : bushels bushels

Wis. ... 316 : 10.8 : 13.5 : 12.5 : 2,358 : 4,590 : 3,950
Minn. .. : 586 : 14.7 : 19.0 : 18.0 : 5,714 : 10,716 : 10,548
N.Dak... : 908 : 9,7 : 10.0 : 11.5 : 9,811 : 6,720 : 10,442
S.Dak... : 634 : 10.9 : 12.0 : 13.0 : 3,388 : 6,108 : 8,242
Nebr.,.. : 432 : 9.3 : 10.0 : 10.0 : 2,655 : 3,900 : 4,320
Other : : : : : :
States. : 1,183 : -- : -- : -- : 12,g28 17,415 : 14,253
U. S. .. : 4,059 : 12.0 : 12.9 : 12.8 : 36,454 : 49,449 : 51,755


WS-19




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