Wheat situation

UNITED STATES DEFEAT, .,,,T OF AGRICULTURE
Bureau of Agricultural Ec-ncmics
Washington

WS-18 April 23, 1938.


THE HEATT S I TUAT IC N
Including Rye


Summary

Estimates of the 1938 acreage sown to winter wheat in 21 countries,

which in 1937 represented over 60 percent of the acrage cf all wheat har-

vested in the world (excluding Soviet Russia and China) indicate that the

change in acreage from that of last year is not significant, according to

the Bureau of Agricultural Econcmics. Acreage increases in a number of

countries, the largest being in Rumania, about offset decreases in other

countries, including Tunisia, Italy, and France.

Growing conditions in the United States and Canada, and in northern,

western, and central Europe, are generally favorable and better than last

year. In the Mediterranean countries, including North Africa, rains are

urgently needed. Insufficient rainfall has also been reported in the Danu-

bian countries, Grcece, and France. Serious crop deterioration has already

taker place in northern and central Italy. In Soviet Russia crop conditions

are reported to be generally good, but spring sowings are being delayed by

cold, wet weather.

Preparations for wvheat seeding in Argentina are progressing under

favorable conditions but in Australia unfavorable weather, until relieved by

rains this week, retarded seedings and may reduce acreage.

In the United States a winter wheat crop of about 726 million bushels

was indicated by the April 1 condition. Average yields on the spring wheat






WS-18 2 -

acreage indicated in the March 1 prospective plantings report would produce

a spring wheat crop of about 200 million bushels. If these indications

materialize, the domestic wheat crop would total approximately 925 million

bushels. A domestic crop of this size would be about 250 million bushels in

excess of the 5-year (1932-36) average domestic disappearance of 670 million

bushels. If the carry-over on July 1 this year turns out to be about 200

million bushels and exports in 1938-39 do not exceed those for 1937-38, the

carry-over into July 1939 may approach the 378 million bushels reached in 1933.

As at least a partial offset to the effect of this supply situation on

price, loans provided under the Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1938 would

cause grain to be withheld frcm market and thereby serve as a check on de-

clining prices. If parity price remains about unchanged, loans to farmers

under the Act would average not less than 60 cents, compared with present

average local market prices of around 75 cents.

The trend in domestic and foreign wheat prices is oxpecteJd to be down-

ward as adjustment is made toward the new-crop basis. Some temporary strength-

ening in prices miy occur, however, as this is the time of your when crop

scares and declining receipts of Southern Hemisphere grain in Eurcpcan markets

may be expected.

The area sown to winter rye in the 12 countries for which reports are

available is very slightly below that reported for these countries last year.

Germany, Poland, and Czechoslovakia, all important producing countries, show

slight increases. Conditions in Germany and Poland are above average and

better than at this time last year.







WS-18


THE WORLD "71LAT SITUA- IIi

BACKGRC'UIJD.- Total world supplies of wheat, after increasing
from 1929 to 1933, decli.ied sharply following successive years
of small production and ircroased -'orld demand. Th1- apparent
world disappearance has averaged about 3,770,000,000 bushels
during the past 10 .:.rs. World prices of wheat mnived steadily
upward from the spring of 1933 to the 'svunmer of 19'7, reflect-
ing higher world'-commodity price levels, four successive below-
avcr-'ge harvests in North America, and, the "1935-36 short 'SOuth-
ern Hemisphere crop. In 1936-37 wheat pr:id's" 'advanced sharlply
as a result of increased demand and the smialTe''t supplies in
recent years.

World wheat production, excluding 'tha't 'of Soviet Russia
and China, in 1937-38 is estimated at Z3,819,'000,000 bushels, or
about 280 million bushels larger than :in 19.-3-37. However,
world stocks, excluding those of Soviet 'Russia and Asia, on
about July 1, 1937, were about 210 million 'bushels smaller than
a year earli r, resulting in total supplies in 1937-38 about '70
million bushels larger than the small supplies *in 1936-37. Net
exports from Soviet Russia in 1937-38 rmray be about 35 million
bushels compared with 4 million bushels in 1936-37. With some-
what lrger su:;.-lies, uncertain prospects for worldd business
activity, and weakness in the general 'pride level, "wheat prices
have declined generally during 'the l937-38 selling 'season.

Large wheat crop in prospect

The available data for winter wheat son 'for harvest in 1938 indicate
163.4 million acres sown in 21 countries, compared with 164.1 million acres sown
in these countries a year earlier (table 1). Winter wheat sown in these countries
for harvest in 1937 amounted to 62 pordent of the harvested -.,cr. ge of all wheat
for the world, excluding the Union of Scviet Socialist Republics and China.

Spring wheat seedings of 22 million acres were indicated in the United
States by the !.Larch 1 prospective planting report, cour.' red with 24 million acres
last year. While no official report has been published for Canada, a reduction
of at least 3 million acres from the 25 million acr.-s seeded last year is ex-
pected. Moisture conditions in Canada are good. The Government has completed
preparations for the distribution of seed wheat in the former drought areas,
but it is understood that in the districts where the drought was most severe
and where the crop has failed for a number of years in succession, the con-
tinued seeding of wheat will be discouraged. The Entomological Branch of the
Dominion Department of Agriculture finds that while the area over which grass-
hopper ugCs are present in significant numbers has increased by some 12 million
acres compared with last year, yet the intensity of the infestation over a large
part cf the "severely infested" area has decreased. The infestation of cutworms
in Canada is also expected to be great.


- 3 -





"IS-18


Table 1.- Winter Wil' t: Area. scn i:i s cifie,: countries, for aar"est
in 1936, 1957 anud 1938

Country 1936 : 1937 : 1958

: 1,000 acres 1,000 acres 1,030 scres

United States ................: 49,765 57,612 57,492
Canada .......................: 585 781 690
Total (2) ..............: 50,350 58,393 58,182
Bel Jiur ......................: 420 422 4'28
Bulgaria .....................: 2,596 2,845 2,874
Czechoslovakia 1/ ...........: 2,206 1,994 2,023
Enl-leai and e.7les ............* 1,704 1,732 1,807
France 2/ ....................: 12,536 12,772 12,352
Greece 2/ ..................: 2,011 2 076 1,900
Germany ......................: 4,757 4,335 4,507
Hui. ry ......................: 4 045 3/ 3 727 3/ 4,139
Italy ........................: 12,434 12,692 12,065
Lithuania ....................: 349 379 357
Polcnd .......................: 3,736 3,736 3,731
Portugal ....................: 1,157 1,093 4/ 1,310
Rumania ......................: 7,720 7,960 8,827
Yugoslavia ................... 5,466 5,342 5,223
Total (14) ..............: 61,137 61,111 61,598
Total (16) ..............: 111,487 119,50-1 119,780
Morocco ......................: 3,194 3,027 4/ 3,089
Algoria ......................: 4,287 4,311 4,083
Tunisia .....................: 1,221 2,420 4/ 1,310
Egypt ....................'....: 1,464 1,421 1,470
India, second estimate .......: 33,331 33,415 /3,706
Total, 21 countries *....: 154,984 164,107 163,438

1/ Includes spelt. 2r 'fo January .
3/ Estimate of the E'elgrade office of the Bureru of 4Aricultur:-l !conoi-ics.
A/ Estimate of the Paris office of t1il. Burc-.u of Agricultural Econo-ies.


Reports of the European winter wheat crop do not indicate ~ui:nor:.1-y
satisfactory conditions. In the northern, wcseurn, and central Conijncrtal
countries conditions are quite promising, but rains ore urgently -Lecd in the
Mediterranean countries and less urgently in the Danubian countries :-nd in
Greece end France. Crop deterioration has already trken pl.-rc in northern
and control Itnly, where general, persistent drought thrcctens serious crop
f' ilure. The wheat crop, it is forecast, will be 20 to 40 percent '.lov;
that of lt.st yoer. In Frfane, Greece .nd the Dcnubi-n countries tahe crops
are still in good condition, but soil moisture h:s not boon sufficiently
restored and frequent rains will b. needed to m-int-.in favor-.blc condition.
For Polind an official report indicates th' L crops dctcriorate-d slightly from
Febru ry 15 to I.T.rch 15, but condition of winter wheat is still abo7c average.





WS-18


The condition of the crop in Germany is good. In Scviet Ruussia the winter
crop condition is reported to be generally good but sprin.i sowini:s ar being
held up by cold, wet weather.

Drou .-ht is widespread over, TT:rtlh Africa. Tr' conditions in Tunisia
during .-1rch caused some deterioration. Persistent drou:-t extends over the
whole of Algeria and the soil now' has barely sufficient moisture to r.ai2:in
Growth. In Morocca the c-ondition of the crop toward the end of virch was
about a.:eri :e, but more rain was needed to maintain this cenaition.

,-e first estimate of production in India' pl; ces the -,heat crop at
.3'-0 million bushels, compared vith tie 193? harvest of 363 million bu-.rels.
Rust is reported in parts of northwest orn India, but the demae- is not
considered serious. The weat er has b 3en fvorebl- tana ,ood progress is
bei.n made with the harvest. The crop is reported -o be of hi h qu-lity.

Wca-ther conditions in China have been generally favorable- and
condition of ::;heat is reported as good.

Ploughi-g for wheat seodi is nrogreosing under favorable conditions
in Ar entine. Government seed loans nve beo'n rranged to- enable f,.:rmers
who lost their crops last year to sov: a full acro'oe. In Australi-a dry
weather has retarded seeding and r.sy result in r, 'iuc:ed acrear;e'. Rains,
however, wore reported this week, which may chan 'e th~ outlook eor.e4h t.

World trade in wheot about as expected

The situation relative to the world trade in wheat renain:-, Lout as
re.portrc'1 in the March issue of "Th. Wheat Situation." As a result of poor
crop prospects in Il-:ly, that country may i-,ort larger quantities of whert
then were ocrpected earlier, but how much larger is hilly uncort'in, be-
cause imports are dependent upon Uoverniiental policy. Tables 7 10 show
fi ur" s on the movement of wheat in international trade this season com-
pared 7with corresponding periods and totals for other years.

Table 2 shows the est imatod .wheat surplus for export or c-rry-ov or
on April 1 in the four principal exporting country so, together it United
Kin-dom port stocks rid stocks o.fodut. T'/:, totl considerably m.-rc than
3to 541 million bushels of. yo'r earlier, Lat are si.-.lr th n the 486
million burhols of 2 yx.r. ago.

unitedd Sttes exports of -wheat -nd flour in :-erns of who t from July
1J.?7 thro.-: Febru'ry 1935 amounted to 63 million bushuls, ship.ents to our
possessions, 2 million-bushels, end exports during,: ].rch, on the basis of
weekly reports, Til probably apprc:imate 10 million bushels. Tiher.-ore,
froir July through March United Statec exports together 8ith shipn-.nts of
who-.t rnd flour in tori:s of whc.,t r.; cpproxi_ te 75 million bushels.






WS-13 6 -

Table 2.- Wheat surplus for cmport )r corry- vor in the four y'rincipal
exporting countries, United. Kingd)u Dart stocks and stocks
afloat, April 1, 1-35-3Y; I/

Position 1 5 1936 1937 1933

: .il.bu. i. bu. Mil. bu. Hiil.bu.
United States:
In United States ........... : 134 109 73 213
In Canada .................. : 1 0 0 1
Canada:
In Canada ..................: 243 210 70 49
In United States ...........: 16 15 12 1
Argentina ....................: Ill 46 53 55

Total .... ...................: 61 27 76__
United Kingdom port stocks ...: 12 J 13 10
Stocks afloat to:
United Kinrd)m .............: 13 16 15 11
Continent ..................: 7 11 23 20
Orders ....................._ 10 1 11
Total .................... 4 45 2
Grand total ..............: b26 40J6 341 47

1/ F)r other than the United. States: Carry-jver at the bginnin' f the ye-r
(Cnada., July 31; Argentina, Jania:.ry 1; Au.tralia, December 1 of the previous
year) plus production, minus domestic utilization for the ye'r, minus monthly
exports to date. For the United States: Year-End stocks minus ir.mrts f)r the
year plus April-June exports and shipments (1933 figure based z-.rry-over on
June 30, 1933 of 200 million bushels, imports of 1 million bushels, and Anril-
June exports of 15 million bushels).

Foreign prices .7e,:

Wheat prices in important world markets declined until about March 22,
influenced largely by heavy receipts of Australian wheat at European markets,
improved crop prospects, and slow demand. Australian prices, h':-ever, continued
to decline into early April. Experts from that country were very large during
the first week in April, reaching a perk of 6.0 million bushels the -.'eck ended
April 16 compared with an average of 3.4 million bushels since January 1.
During the last week in March the Winnipeg m-rket, reflecting th.e short milling-
wheat supply situation, advanced sharply. This influenced other markets
including Liverpool. During early April prices were unsettled on account of
the varying import demand, -jprehension concerning: frost damage to the United
States crop, dry conditions in Italy and Australia, ar-d changes in the
securities market.






-7 -


Table 3 shows Fridj-r prices of imported wheat at Liverpool from 6
countries including the United States 1/, and table 4 the closing prices of
M.ay futures in Winr.ip:-., Liverpool, .and Bu na; Aires, to- -.-ther.-'iith those at
Chicago, Kansas City, nrin. Minnoj--lis.

Tabl- 3.- Prices of imported v:het at Livorp-)l

: Hard whets Soft -wleats


Date


: U.S. : Cn- ada


(Fri ny) :(Gulf) : th: e7 '1.3 3
:.2 S.: of e :Mritba:
: Winter : : I/ :
_:7 : Cents C2n ts Cents
Jan. :


7
14
21
25
Feo.
4
11
li
25
Mar.
4
11
13
25
Apr.
1


. ...,... S


......,:
.......:
*
.......:*
oo.....*.

.......:
.......:*
Oeeeee*

eeeo~e*


12.l 1
12E .4
129.7
126.7

126.1-
1?->.5
121.9
122.3


....... :2/126.1
.......:2/117.3
.......:7/1l6.2
....... :2/117.0

.......:2/116.3
....... :2/112.5
......*.: 2_/114. 0


12). 7
12.7
134.1
130.5
126.7

129,2



127.50
123.1
123.1


1 1.2
117.0
113.9

117.1
114. 8
114.0


154.4
14.4
152.0

1'43.3
144.4

144.3



130 9
130.2


: U.S. : Austr- India
hussian :(Pacific): lin : choice
: White : Karachi
S:* : nL
Cc:ts Cents Cents Cents


123.3
117.3
11.4.6


107.0
101.6


114. 1
113.1
112.1
112.6

114.4
113.0
109.3
112.1

110.h
105.6
104.6
101.5

103.9
91.5


116.4
117.0
116.4
116.5

116.7
116.9
115.6


113.5
112.6
106.9
105.4

103.2
lCO.9
102.4


-----


116.5

115.1
113.8
112.4
114.1

107.4
104.2
103.0
101.5

101.6
100.1


/j Empire wheat qualifying for Imperial
(a'ppri:in-.tin ; 6 cents per bushJl) under
2/ Ko. 1 D-' Hard Winter.


Preference is exempt from utt.-
ftt

Vh,.at prices hi in Conada

The price of -5d milling heatt in Canr.1'- this ve.-r is hI. -r.r than usual
relative to all other ,*heats because )f the short,: of ;o )d milling wheat
in that country. The 1937 Canadian wheat crop ivs very small and only a
relatively small proportion of the cr.)p qualified for the bettor grades.

On April 16 l. 3 ':'nitoba 'lTrthern at Winrnip-,- was 9 cents higher than
the price of the fairly comparable 1oU. 1 Dark P:orthern Spring at Minneapolis.
In the 5 .years, 192_-29 to 1932-33, when the United. States was on an exomrt
basis, the price of 1To. 3 M'nitoba northern at Wininipeg 1-.erp-:d 16 cents
below '10. 1 D-.rk Northern S -:ri-." at Minneapolis.

L_ Description of terms iven in "The W:heat Situation", March 1932, page 13.





WS-8I


The situation with regard to imports has changed this year. Canada is
now importing wheat from the United States, whereas during the past 3 crop years,
1934-35 to 1936-37, the United States imported wheat from Canada. Imports of
milling wheat into the United States during these years were necessary because of
the small United States crops of hard red spring and durum wheats, and wheat
"unfit for human consur.ption" was imported to relieve short domestic feed grain
supplies, Total imports for domestic utilization during these 3 years averaged
about 4 percent of our total domestic utilization. Now that the United States
is again on an export basis these imports have become negligible. Table 6 shows
the quantity of imports during these 3 years compared with other years.

Imports into the United States were made possible during the past 3 years
because our wheat prices were high relative to those in Canada. Had the United
States been on an export basis, domestic wheat prices may have averaged close
to 30 cents lower than they did. When we are importing, the price of the type
of wheat being imported must be high enough to pay the exporter's price plus
tariff and freight, whereas when we are exporting, our price is the price in the
importing country minus freight.

THE DOMESTIC WHEAT SITUATION

BACKGROUND.- The carry-over of wheat in the United States
for the 5-year period (1924-2g) averaged about 115 million
bushels. Stocks which began to accumulate in 1929 reached
the record peak of 378 million bushels in 1933. Four small
wheat crops since that time, ho'.-ever, reduced stocks to
about 100 million bushels by July 1, 1937. Domestic disap-
pearance during.the 5 years (1932-36) averaged 670 million
bushels.

Domestic wheat prices from the spring of 1933 to that
of 1937 were unusually high relative to world market prices,
because of four small domestic crops caused largely by ab-
normally low yields per acre. During 1936-37 both world and
domestic prices advanced sharply as a result of increased
demand and the smallest supplies in recent years.

Early in the 1937-3S season, domestic and foreign wheat
prices rose sharply following reports of serious damage to the
Canadian crop and the threat of rust damage in the United
States. It was thought possible at that time that world
prices might remain sufficiently above the 1936-37 levels to
offset the decline in United States prices to an export basis.
However, with an increase of over 100 million bushels in the
estimate of the world crop, excluding that of Soviet Russia
and China, the likelihood of large shipments from Soviet Russia,
a slow European demand, disturbed business conditions, and a
falling general commodity price level, wheat prices in world
markets have declined. The price of wheat at local United
States markets, weighted by monthly sales, is now expected to
average somewhat under $1 a bushel in 1937-3g compared with
$1.03 in 1936-37.


- 9 -






7S-1


Large Wheat Supplies in Pro sect

Winter wheat production.- A winter wheat production of 725,707,000
bushels in 1938 was indicated. by reports on April 1. This compares with the
crop of r25,102,000 bushels in.1937 and the 10--year (1927-36) average production
of 546,396,000 bushels. Ab:.- o.nment was placed at about 13 percent, which
leaves about 49,900,000 acres for harvest in 1938. Tie acreage harvested in
1937 was 46,946,o00 acres, and the previous ]O-year : '-erre 37,281,000 acres.
April 1 conditions indicated a yield of 12.6 bushels on the acre-je seeded to
winter wheat for harvest in 1938 (as reported last December).

The April 1 reports showd-. that prospects had improved since last Decem-
ber in practically all sections of the country excc--t the Cotton Belt. The
greatest improvement occurred in the Great Plains States; although in most of
this area, outside of Oklahoma, the indicated yields per seeded acre on April 1
were only about average. Elsewhere, except on the East Const, the indicated
yields per seeded acre were generally above average. Prospects were suostan-
tially above average in the Eastern Corn Belt, :.issouri, Minnesota, and on the
West Coast.

On April 1 surface soil moisture was considered adequate over most of the
Southwestern wheat bolt, but extensive reasurements s3 owed a lack of subsoil
moisture in substantial portions of this area. During the first 3 weeks of
April central Kansasr has received almost normal precipitation but precipitation
in western Kansas, C1'l -ho:..a, and the panhandle of T-::.s has been considerably
below normal. Early in April, cold whether is reported to have caused some
damage to wheat in Southeastern Kansas, Texas, and YOkl.ah where the plant
was in the jointing stage.

Spring wheat production.- Average yields on the spring wheat acreage
indicated in the March 1 prospective plantings report would produce a spring
wheat crop of about 200 million bushels. However, as pointed out in the
Mprch issue of this report, it is impossible at this time to forecast the
acreage for harvest with any high degree of accuracy because of the wide range
in the annual percentage abandonment of spring wheat. Fr:m 1924 to 1933,
the abandonment of all spring wheat averaged only 6.9 percent, while during the
years 1927 to 1936 the average abandonment 1ws l8.' percent. The abandonment
in 1934 and 197l was arnrro?-xi .etely one-half of the seeded acreage. In arriving
at an all spring wheat acreage for harvest of about 19 million acres, an ab.n-
donment of approximately 15 percent was assumed, which represents about the
average during the years 1927-36, -ith the hes-y abandonment of 19,3 and 1936
excluded. Using a-orare yields per harvested acre during this same period to
interpret this acre-age, a spring wheat crop of close to 200 million bushels
is indicated. The average yield for the 4 years, 1929-32, was 10.7 bushels,
and that for 1933, 1935, 1937 was 9.6 bushels; yields duri-. the 7 years aver-
aged 10.2 bushels.

During the first 3 we-.ks in April, precipitation in North Dakota and
Montana, where subsoil moisture is still deficient, was considerably below
normal. Moisture this month and next is relatively important for spring wheat.


- 0 _






WS-18


- 10 -


In the Bureau's North Dakota correlation analysis of weather and yield,
the relative importance cf the f-ve weather factors was as fcllcws:
(1) June temperature, (2) April ilay precipitation, (3) euly temperature,
(4) July precipitation, and T() previous September October precipitation.
In the Montana study, the order was: (1) July temperature, (2) June tempera-
ture, (3) and (4) April May precipitation, and July precipitation of equal
importance, and (5y previous September October precipitation.

Carry-over stocks on July 1, 1938.- While complete stocks figures
for April 1, which wculd provide the basis of a possible revision in the
forecast of carry-over on July 1, 1938 are not yet available, it is pro-
bable that the revised figure will be little different from the 200 million
bushels previously estimated. Total domestic supplies in the United States 2/
for 1937-38 have been estimated at 965 million bushels, consisting cf a carry-
over on July 1, 1937, of 91 million bushels and a crop of 874 million bushels.
Experts and shipments of wheat and flour in terms of wheat are estimated at
90 million bushels and utilization at 675 million bushels.

Stocks of all classes of wheat on farms at the first of April were
estimated at 124,883,000 bushels, compared with 71,463,000 bushels a year
earlier, and 124,056,000, the 10-year (1927-36) average. Disappearance of
wheat from farms, January through March this season, amounted to 83,862,000
bushels compared with only 56,851,000 bushels for the same months last year.
Market stocks of wheat or the first of April tct-.led-54,426,000 bushels com-
pared with 34,741,000 bushels a year earlier. Stocks in interior mills,
elevators and warehouses on April 1 were estimated at 73,075,000 bushels
compared with 39,009,000 bushels on April 1 last year and the 6-year average
(1931-36) of 73,820,000 bushels. Statistics on merchant mill stocks are not
yet available.

Price trend downward toward new crop basis

Prices of both cash and futures prices in most domestic markets have
been generally down since early March, influenced by the same factors as
prices in other countries, and especially by improved domestic crop pros-
pects. The better grades of milling wheat at Mirnneapolis, however, after
reaching a low point the latter part of March rose and have since held their
gain, influenced by the sharp rise at Winnipeg. Tables 4 and 5 show wheat
prices at specific domestic and foreign markets.




2/ Supply and distribution of wheat by classes, average for 1929-30 to
1933-34 and crop years 1933-34 to 1937-38, is shown in table 7 in the
February issue of "The Wheat Situation".





WS-18


- 11 -


Table 4.-Averago clo-sinr: prices of May wheat futures, specified markets and
dates, 1937 and1 1938
: Winnipeg : Livernpol : Buenos : Chi',o : Kansas : Minneap-
Date : i/ : / : Aires : : City : olis
:1937 : 1938 :1937 _: 1933 :1937 :1938 :1937 -1938 :1937 93g 197 1938


:Cents Cont- Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
Month -
Jan. :124.3 12'.3 127.2 113.9 -- 131.2 95.5
Feb. :126.1 127.7 126.5 112.3 -- 133.3 94.1
Mar. :135.4 120.0 135.4 104.7 -- 137.7 E,.1
Week


ended -:
Mar. 5:127.6
12:130.6
19:135.8
26:142.8
Apr. 2:147.4
9:147.5
16:137.8
High 4/ :147.5
Low 4/ :120.0


125.5
120.6
.1 '. 5
116.0
120.7
122.3
124.6
128.4
116.0


129.3
132.2
136.5
142.2
147.4
152.7
141.2
152.7
122.0


110.7 104.0 -2/6.5
108.4 10.5 ?-5 03.7
104.03115.2 1,01.
99.6;126.1 '98.9
100.11429.0 100.5
98.64 27.0 9.8
101.3 18.4 00.1I
114. 85_29.0 112.0
93.62/94.7 9S.'


134.0
136.3
137.5
l4o. z
143.1
140.8
134.8
143.1
127.6


92.3

37.1
86.2
86.0
83.0
33.9
97.4
33.0


Cents Cents


124.7
125.5
129.2


125.2
127.3
129.0
132.5
134.6
133.2
127.4
134.6
120.7


94.2
92.9
85.7


53.6
86.0
?4.9
34.3
83.5
80.2
81.3
96.3
80.2


Cents Cents

133.4 105.4
139.4 104.8
141.9 97.3


139.0
14o.7
141.7
143.9
147.0
145.1
139.1
147.0
133.8


102.0
97.7
96.4
95.4
95.1
92.8
93.5
107.3
92.8


]/ Conversions at noon buym.,-7 rate of eo:chatrn'e. 2/ Anril futures. 31/
futures. 4/ January 3 to April 16, 1933, and corresponding dates 1937.
and May futures. 6/ March, April, and Lay futur23s.


June
5/ April


Table 5.-7-'hte'd -iveraje cash price -of whe-,.t, specified markets and
~~___________dates. 1937 and 19338____________
:All classes: 1?. 2 : No. 1 : No. 2 Hard: 1'o. 2 : westernn
Date :and rra 7-s :Hard Winter:Dk.II.Spring:Anber Durum:Red Winter : '7ihite
:six C'r-et.-:, zse Cit ::!iiL-l .lir : :i2 ...ali :St. L.uis :S3a+4t*le I
--:1337 3l _':I7:I3i38_._l_3__ 183JL :117-13 : 193la3 3_933_3j_ 3l1938_
Month :Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cunts Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
Jan. :144.3 102.4 138.0 102.7 165.9 127.0 171.3 108.7 139.6 100.2 112.2 88.9
Feb. :138.5 98.8 136.5 99.6 159.4 125.1 170.0 110.1 143.2 99.3 114.4 90.0
Mar. :141.6 93.0 138.6 91.5 153.0 119.2 1S3.2 105.3 143.0 91.6 117.0 86.2
Week
ended -:


Mar. 5:139.2
12:1358.8
19:139.8
26:146.2
Apr. 2:145.5
9:145.5
16:138.4
High 3/ :149.6
Low 3/ :134.9


97.5
94.1
90.6
91.7
89.9
85.6

105.2
85.6


138.0
138.3
136.9
14o. 5

144.5
135.9
144.5
133.4


96.4 151.5 129.5
91.6 154.4l 13.3
90.5 153.5- 07.
93 47.- 02.2
88.3 62.5 109.5
83.9 169.; 109.1
-5.3 155.3 lio.
104.8 1C9.8 131.1
83.9 147.6 109.1


153.7 111.6 142.1
206.2 104.2 142.3
169.7 100.9 140.3
13.O0 103.8 146.7
199.2 102.0 147.4
154.2 93.7 144.7
160.3 97.7 142.3
206.2 112.3 147.4
153.7 97.7 136.6


96.5
91.2
90.1
- .0
3.3
85.6

101.7
;4.8


112.6
116.0
117.1
118.9
121.4
122.0
119.8
122.0
109.5


88.5
86.7
85.7
85.1
85.4
82.2

90.5
82.2


V/ Weekly average of daily cash quotations, basis No. 1 sacked.
2/ No. 1 Heavy Dark Northern Sprinr.
3/ January 8 to April 16, 1938 and corresponding dates for 1937.






WS-18


- 12 -


The trend in wheat prices is apoc-ted to be downward as adjustment is
made toward the new-crop basis. Some temporary strengthening in prices may
occur, however, as this is the tia-c of year when crop scares and declining
receipts of Southern H;.2isTphere -*r.r .n in Europ on na.kets ._n.y be expected.

As at:lec.st a partial offset to the price effect -f lar,"e respectivee
wheat supplies aft, r the new crop is harvested, loans provided i;nder the
Agricultural Adjustnent Act of 1938 would c.use grain to bo withheld from
market and thereby serve as a check or declining prices. If parity price re-
mains about -:r.ch; _icd, loans to farmers under the Act w.,ld avera.-e not less
than 60 cents compared with present average local market prices of around 75
cents.

ACREAGE AND CONDITION OF FALL-SOWN RYE

Additi,.-.'l data for rye acreage have been recjiverd for ornly one country,
Yugoslavia, since the March issue of this report. Table 11 shows virtually no
charge front last year in the 12 countries for which estimates are available.
The condition of the crop is above aver ge in Germany and in Polan.d and in both
countries is much better than at this tine last year.

The rye crap in the United States cje through the winter with less
injury than usual and the condition on Anril 1 ,vas 81 parent of normal com-
pared with 71 percent a ;o-'_ aao and 7S percent, the avern-e for the 10 years,
1927-36. In the Great Plains area, which includes the i.portoant rye-producing
States of North Dakcta, South Datkta, and Nebraska, the A'pril 1 condition was
considerably above the unusually low condition of last -ccr and is also slightly
above the l0-yearr avra.-e condition. eWath;r during the winter was generally
more favorable than usual, and the April 1 condition of rye shDwed ar, increase
of 7 points over the December 1 condition of 74 percent, wn-reas the 10-year
avern:ie for April 1 is 3 points below the 10-year average condition on De-
cember 1.






WS-18


- 13 -


Table 6.-'.Thet: Im~oorts into the Unitrd States for domestic utili-
zation and for grinJing in bond, and export, annually 1C :-24
to 1936-57 and monthly, July 1927 to February 1938

: Wheat unfit : Total imports
: Fully duty: for human : for domestic : For grinding
Crop year : wheat : consumption : utilization in bond
: (tariff : (tariff of 10 : (total of and export
: 42 cents) : percent ad : first 2 : 2/
___ _: : val.) i/ : columns) :
: Bushels Bushels Bushels Bushels


13,785,423
272,548
1,664,943
43,808
161,297
79,136
44,607
40,756
6,057
5,767
143,656
5 ,9 L5,380
25,288,519
30,205,430


192 Z -24
1924-25
1925-26
1926- :7
1927-28.-
1928-29
1929-30
1970-21
1931-22
1932-53
19233-34
1934-35
1935-36
1936-37

1957-
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.

1958-
Jan.
Feb.


3,553
110


507,536

1,354
5,729
8,146,0441
9,205,128
S4,057,016


3,650
0
0
500
0
0


0
0


13,783,423
272,548
1,664, 843
48,," 3
161, 13.7
79,156
44,607
348,092
6,C57
7,121
149,5385
14,051,424
54,493,647
34,262,446


493,710
101,400
1,274
603
60
180


3,5553
110


135,904,857
5,815,353
13,421,480
15,171,633
15,043,679
22,480,962
12,903,364
19,013,090
12,878,851
9,372,151
11,341,052
11,064,092
11,978,659
13,468,667


769,719
.766,290
452,105
348,167
182,527
78,000


50,257
25,400


Imports for consumption from United States Tariff Commission, July 1923 to
December 1933, and from Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce, January
19 4 to date.

i/ Beginning June 18, 1930, a new classification, wheat unfit for human
consumption, was introduced by the l%0 Tariff Act.
2/ ',Wheat for grinding in bond for export, which enters :uty free. Beginning
June 18, 1930, includes wheat ground into flour in bond for export to Cuba,
a new classification in the 1930 Act. From June 18, 1920 to September 3,
1936 the duty on this wheat equaled the reduction in Cuban duty and the
reduction in the consumption tax applicable by truevty to such flour imported
into Cuba. On September 3, 1936 the consumption tax was repealed.


490,060
101,400
1,274
103
60
190






WSS-16


- 14 -


Table 7.- Movement of wheat, including flour, from principal
exporting countries, 19.4-35 to 157-39

: Exports a: given by official sourc-s :
Country : Total : July 1 to date shown : Date
___ :1 4 -35 :19 3-66 :1936-37 :1975-36 :196-37 :1937-38 :
: .G0"0 i,0.10 1,000 1,00C 1,000 1,000 :
:bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels :


United States i/ ....: 21,532
Canada ..... ........-:169,630
Argentina ...........:187,000
Australia ...........:108,007
Russia ..............: 4,286
Hungary ............ : 12,499
Yugoslavia ..........: 4,401
Rumania .............: 3,432
Bulgaria ............: 375
British India .......: 2,318


Total .............


North America 2/ ...
Canada,4 markets /..
United States .......
Argentina ..........
Australia ...........
Russia ..............
Danube & Bulgaria 4/.
British India .......
Total 6/ ..........
Total European snip-
ments 2/ ..........
Total ex-Europeanr
shipments 2/ ......


15,929
237,447
76,577
102,258
29,704
14,644
728
6,391
988
2,5U6


21,584
213,028
162,085
95,970
4,479
27,428
17,302
35,540
7,273
14,6"4


10,165
157,282
64,625
49,933
27,080
8,359
115
9,996
943
656


14,019
178,088
130,980
43,502
2,343
19,026
10,226
23,476
4,922
855


63,447
73,921
50,047
47,647
31,836
5,885
4,586
23,797
5,625
1,082


Feb.
Feb.
Mar.
Jan.
Dec.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan,.
Jan.
Aug.


28
28
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31


:513,480 437,222 591,363
_ Shipments as given by trade sources
_: Total : W'leek ended 1937-38 : July 1 April 16
:1935-36 :1j36-3'7 : npr. 2: Apr.9: Apr.16: 1936-37 : 1937-38
: 1,000 1, 000 1, 00000 ,000 1, 00 1,000 1,000
bu. bu, bu. bu. bu. bu. bu.

:220,464 225,902 2,416 1,506 2,491 187,608 144,957
:246,199 194,531 293 341 150 165,647 65,789
: 7,219 10 049 1,600 970 1,485 7,132 64,969
: 78,312 164,678 1,680 1,029 1,881 141,974 51,926
:110,576 105,836 4,134 4,249 6,014 77,028 90,415
: 29,024 88 272 1,440 736 88 38,312
: 8,312 65,544 648 688 624 50,168 34,184
:5/2 .,5 5/14 ,674 128 104 0 8,696 11,970
S-49,244 76 465,562 371,764

:300,264 484,*C00 7,928 7/361,90i4 7/299,600
: -


:131,760 127,192 1,760


7/102,560


7/ 69,528


I/ Includes flour milled in bond from foreign wheat.
2/ Broomhall's Ccrn Trade News.
3/ Fort William, Port Arthur, Vanccuver, Prince Rupert, and New Westminster.
T/ Black Sea shipments only.
7/ Official.
6/ Total of trade figures includes 1oerth Atmerica as reported by Broomnhall's but
dces net include items 2 and 3.
7/ To April 2.
I






- 15 -


Table 8.-Shipments of wheat, including flour from principal exporting
countries, specified dates, )1.36-37 and 1937-38


Period


July-Feb.
Week ended-
Mar. 5
12
19
26
Apr. 2
9
16


: Argentina : hustrelia : Danube : North Amnerica
:19J6-37:1937-38: 19q-37:19 1-^TiP3- : --7-:1.2:-Z7:1937-3-
1,000 1,000 I,00 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
:bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels

91,712 39,312 58,548 62,128 46,664 29,296 171,888 125,800


9,108
7,252
8,420
5,934
6,476
7,536
5,504


2,580
2;220
1,972
1,252
1,680
1,029
1,881


S,736
"2,524
5,428
2,308
2,448
S1,992
2,044


3,036
4,528
3,856
1,420
4,184
4,249
6,014


136
176
384
728
272
488
1,320


784
416
864

648
688
. 624


2,384
1,848
2,232
2,072
2,096
2,208
2,840


3,320
2,408
3,624
3,392
2,416
1,506
2,491


Compiled from Broomhall's Corn Trade News.



Table 9.-Exports of .wheat :.nd wheat flour from the United States,
1936-37 and 1937-38
(Includes flour milled in bond from foreign wheat)


: Wheat : "'i at flour
: 1936-57' : 1937-38 : 1936-37 : 1957-
: 1,000 1,000 1,000" 1,00(
: bushels bushels barrels barr(


8: Theat including flour
-38 : 1936-37 : 1937-38
) 1,000 1,000
els bushels bushels


July-Feb.
Leek ended-
Mar. 5
12
19
26
Apr. 2
9
16


: 1,804

: 20
13
: 0
: 20
: 0
0
: 0


Compiled from reports of the Department of Commerce.


Period


48,218

1,167
1,253
1,907
1,742
1,168
538
1,217


2,599

37
30
36
18
48
35
10


3,240.

72
53
81
B.7
92
92
57


14,019

194
154
169
105
226
164
47


63,447

1,505
1,502
2,288
2,010
1,600
970
1,485


WS 18




UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
II II | III IIII IIll H |I II I 1111 D VII I DII II IIII
3 1262 08861 8375
T-ble 10.- Fet inp3rts -f :-heat, inclauiin, flour, int) European countries,
___ year bej.nniJr'.J.l 1. 176-7 and 1373
: : .ct i:r..;rts reported
Country : 1.,6-37 :lJT7-3Sl/: July 1 : : 6-37 1:
: :. _rct : .... 1,36-37 1537-3u
-_________,. -- f rec-st to -to
:r1il.bul. i'il.ba. : UM.bu. il.bu.
Austria ................: 10 10 :J-n. 31 : 5 4
B l iu n ...............: 1Uj 40 :Jr. 31 2: 5 25
CzechDslov.okia ........: 2/ -11. 2/- 1 :F-b. 23 : / 4 2 2
Dc-rmark .............. : 7 3 :Feb. 23 : R 4
Finland ................: 4 3 :Jan. 31 : 2 2
France ................: 7 21 :Jrn. 31 : h g
Germniy ...............: 23 29 :Feb. 2, : 1 34
Greece ................: 21 13 :Jan. 3 : 12 3
Ireland ...............: 14 13 :Feb. 23 : 10 10
Italy .................: r4 10 :Feb. 2] : 17 5
Latvia ................: 1 I :J-n. 51 : / 1
Netherlands ...........: 21 24 :F.,b. 21 : 1i 16 "
Norw-y ...............: 9 :Fcb. 2) : 4 44
Poland ................: N1 0 :Feb. 23 : 2/- 5 /
Portugsl .,............: / 3 :Dec. 31 4
Sweden .................: / /- 1 :. -b. 23 : 1 /- 1
S'vitzerland ...........: 19 16 :F;b. 2 : 12 10
United Kin-dni ........: 1__ __1 00 :"b... 2 : 133 126
Total imports of above: 42; 3,7 :
Spain .................: : 3 : :
T:ta- inparts ........: 45 400 : : 244 257
Tot-1 e-x,- rts ........ : 1 2 10 _
TAt.1, nt icntjrtE ...: 41C 35 : : 234 254
Compiled from official s:.urces except as )th'nise -ttteC.
_/ Bo, ei. n forecasts by Eurr) -n offices )f the Bure.u %f Agricultural Ecinomics.
2/ let eq)ports. 3/ Net exports of less thr-.n 500,000 buvch-ls.
R Less th-n 500,000 bushels.

Table 11.- ".inter r-,e: Arc- s xv,: in sc;cifier'. c.iuntries f3r harvest
i.n 1-36, 1`317 -and 1-53


Crtart.try

Unit :md States ....
Canada ...........
T-t-2 (2)
Belgium .........
Bulgari .........
Czech c slov-,:i. ...
France j/ .........
Ge rmnny ..........
Grecce ....... ..
Lit hIiu.ni ........
Poland ...........
1b-ir.in i r. ..........
Yug slavin .......
Tt.t.l (10)
Total (12)


1/ S)"'ings tJ J.-nuary 1.


Sb6 : 1537 : 1933
: 0,'0 acres 1,000 acres 1,000 acres
r.......... 67 7,53 3
..........: 4: ___ _- 517
..........: c,977 ____ 4 ___ ._7.,6
..........: 3-;5 375 3 0
..........: 402 426 436
..........: 2,466 2,353 2,423
.......... : 1,611 1,620 1,621
..........: ii,006 10,122 10,235
.. ........ : 160 1 1/ 171
.......... : 1,207 1,251 1,327
..........: 14,346 1I,076 14,471
..........: 1,021 1,052 1,102
.......... : 5r51 544 530
.........: __14155 14. _14.16
.........: 40,132 40,376 40,132

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