Wheat situation

UNITED ST-TEC DEPACLTT.NT OF AGRICULTURE
Lureau of Agricultural Econorics
'~ashington

WS-16 February 23, 1938

THE VTHEAT SITUATION
Including Rye


Sunmary

Because of small world supplies of hard milling wheats this year,

all the hard winter w'he.at surplus remaining in the United States is expected

to move into export channels, the Bureau of AtUgricultural Economics points

out. Remaining, supplies of all wheat are ,i:rFple for world consumption and

carry-over for the year ending June 30.

Surplus supplies of harde milling wheats are produced principally in

the United States, Canada, Arentina, and Soviet Russia. Supplies in Canada

have been greatly reduced this year but the quality is much lower than usual

as a result of drought last season. Soviet Russia exported about 35 million

bushels from July through January but probably will not ship much more wheat

before the 1938 harvest. After allowing for a relatively small carry-over

of hard wheat in.the United States, it is estimated that on February 1 only

about 30 million bushels remained available for export.

The Burnu continues to estin-te totl exports and shipments of wheat

and flour made from domestic wheat for the year beginning July 1, 19,7, at

about 90 million bushels. Iron July through Janurry exports of wheat and flour

made from domestic wheat, exrressrd in terms of -l.'at, amounted to about 48

million bushels.

Wheat stocks in the United States on January 1 were estimated at 534

million bushels, indicating a dis.ipp ar-nce of 391 million bushels during the

first half of the r.arketing season. Th, disappearance for the 6 mronthn,

January-June, is forecast at about 2.4 million bushels, which would point to a

total domestic disappearance for the year of approxinstely 675 million bushels.





WS-16 -

If exports amount to about 50 million bushels from January through June,

this would indicate a carry-over on July 1, 1938, of about 200 million

bushels. Stocks of this size would be larger than those of the past 3

years, but much smaller than during the period 1930-34, when they averaged

about 325 million bushels.

European buying, crop conditions in the hard winter wheat States of

this country, and general business sentiment are expected to continue to

influence wheat prices during the next few weeks. Heavy shipments from

Southern Hcrisphere countries usually have a depressing effect on wheat

prices at this time of the year. Later on, when shipments from the Southern

Hemisphere countries decline, increased takings from the United States will

probably follow and a rise in wheat prices may then occur.

Some increase in the world acreage of fall-sown wheat is indicated

for the next harvest. Crop conditions throughout Europ are generally

satisfactory, except in Italy where delayed germination scems to be wide-

spread. In Soviet Russia the combined so-vings of winter wheat and rye showed

a slight increase over the ocreFge sown in 1936. It is believed that the

wheat acreage has been increased at the expense of the rye acreage.

'% THE WORLDD ".h'IAT SITUATION

BACKGROUND.- Total world supplies of .wh.at, after increasing
from 1929 to 1933, declined sharply following successive ye-rs
of small production and increased world danr.d. The apparent
world disappearance has averaged about 3,770,000,000 bushels
during the past 10 years. World prices of -i-heat noved steadily
upw' Ard from the spring of 19`;3 to the summer of 1937, reflect-
ing higher world commodity price levels, four successive below-
average harvests in iorth America, -nd the 1935-36 short
Southern Hemisphere crop. In 1936-37 wheat prices advanced
sharply as a result of increased demand and the smallest
supplies in recent years.





WS-16


Worl.l wheat production, excluding that of Soviet Russia
and China, in 1937-38 is estimated at 3,7J ,000,000 bushels,
or about 260 million bu:he3ls larger than in 1956-37. However,
world stocks on about July 1, 1937, excluding those of Soviet
Russia and Asia, were about 210 million bushels smaller than a
year earlier, resulting in total supplies in 1357-38 about 50
million bushels larger than the small supplies in 1933-37.
Exports from Soviet Russia in 1937-58 may be about 40 million
bushels compared with 4 million bushels in 1936-37.

World wheat supplies, trade: Small supply hard millin- heats

Table 1 shows the estimated -'hieat surplus for export or carry-over on
February 1 in the United States, Canada, Argentina, and Australia, as well
as United Kingdom port stocks and stccks afloat. -These total 534 million
bushels compared with 441 million a year earlier at which time the United
States was still on an import basis.

It will be observed in the table that the big increase in supplies
over last year is in the United States. Canadian and MArgentine supplies are
onaeiderably low-r than a year earlier, while those for Australia are only
slightly lage:r.
Table l,-bc- t surplus for export or carry-over in the four principal
exporting counties, United Yinprdom port stocks and stocks
afloat, February 1, 1935-38 1/

PoFition 195 1936 1937 1938

: Mil. bu. Mil. bu. I'dl. bu. Mil. bu.
United States:
In United States ..........: 136 112 73 243
In Canada ..................: 1 0 0 2
Canada:
In Canada .................: 263 241 83 57
In United States ..........: 25 29 21 3
Argentina ..............0....: 146 56 117 83
Australia ...................: 100 90 85 99
Total ...... ................ : 671 528 379 487
United :ingdom port stocks ..: 13 9 8 10
Stocks afloat to:
United Ki.ngdm ............: 12 17 22 17
Continent ................: 8 7 16 10
Orders .................. 13 2 16 10
Total ........ ...... 46 35 62 47
Grand total ...........: 717 563 441 534
1 For other than the United States: Carry-over at the beginning of the year
Canada, July 31; Ar.entina, January 1; Australia, December 1 of the previous
year) plus production, minus domestic utilization for the year, minus monthly
exports to date. For the United States:" Year-end stocks minus imports for the
year plus February-June exports (1938 figure bas-d on carry-over on June 30,
1938 of 200 million bushels-and February-June exports of 42 million bushels).


- 3 -





W7S-16


.'While remaining wheat supplies are ample to take care of world
requirements for consumption and carry-over, supplies of hard milling
wheats.are.,not so,,plentiful. HFard milling heats are produced principally
in Canadal,.the United Stntcs, Argentina, and Soviet Russia. Not only have
supplies, in Canada been greLtly reduced but the quality is much lower than
usual because of drought last season. Soviet Russia exported about 35
million bushels from July through January but is not expected to ship much
more before the 1923 harvest. The United States, therefore, not only has
the largest surplus supplies of wheat but also the most hard milling wheat
of any country. 'Of the United States supplies of 243 million bushels for
carry-over or export (shown in table), after making allowance for a
relatively small -arry-over .bf:h1.:d wheat, only about 30 million bushels of
hard wheats remained av:Ailble for export on February 1. It is expected that
this will all be exported,

United States total wheat exports for the yoer beginning July 1, 1937,
are still estimated at 90 million bushels. This is based on an estimate that
the net world trade -will be about 75 million busr.els less than in 1936-37.
The Bureau's estimates that imports by European net importing countries will
be about 400 million bushels nd that shipments to non-European countries 1/
will total -about 85 million-bushels remain unchanged. These estimates total
485 million bushels comnper.id with 567 million bushels in 1936-37, which con-
sisted of 436 million bushels of net imports by European importing countries
and 127 million bushels of shipia'nts to non-European countries 1/,

From July through Decenrb-:r United States exports of wheat and flour
made from United States wheat, -.'xpressed in terms of wheat, totaled 40
million bushels, 2 and those for January will probably amount to about 8
million bushels. On the basis of total estimated exports of 90 million
bushels, exports for the February-June period may be expected to approximate
42 .million bushels.

It is expected that the Danubian countries, which produce a soft
wheat, may export another 25 to 30 million bushels of *,-heat in the February-
June period. There has been no official estimate for. Idia, which begins
its harvest at this time of the year, but growing. conJitions would seem to
indicate a crop somewhat larger than a y-,:r ago. despite, a smaller acreage.
In the year begiinning July 1, 1936, India had. n.t exports of 13 million
bushels,- only about 3 million bu-,shls of wh.ic.h .w...r.e shipped during the March-
June (1937) period.

Tables 15 to 18 show figures on the .movament..o.f .wheat in international
trade this season compared with the corresponding .pe.riods and totals for other
years. Tables 2 and 13 are. new tables which .show.United States wheat and
flour exports by countries.... These are introduced .at .this time because the
United States is taking its.plac. a.2gin this yeir.ri one of the principal
exporting countries. It'will be obcsrved that only a few countries are
taking.United States wheat in volume: :-nd these are located principally in
Europe., On the other hand, the countries t? ouing our flour are principally non-
European countries.
l/ The figure for non-European shipments corresponds with the Broomhall series,
which reflects fairly well the ylar-to-year changes in imports by non-European
countries.
2/ July-December exports, including flour made from foreign wheat, amounted to
44 million bushels,


- 4 -





-5-


Table 2.- United States domestic ;sports of wheat by .-p~,ified countries,
semi-anrually beginning Jlly 1935


Country


Belgium ...........
Denmarkc ...........
France ............
Germany ...........
Greece .............
Ireland ..........
Italy ............
Netherlands ........
Norway ............
United Kingdom ....
Other Europe ......
Total Europe ......
Canada ... .......
M-xico .............
Panama .... .......
Salvador ..........
Brazil ............
J c lumbia ..........
Pen 1 ..............
Japan .............
Other countries ..
Total exports ...


S 1935-36


-1936-37


: 1937-33 1/


July-Dec.: Jan.-June: July-Dec.:Jan.-June:July-Dec.
: 1,000 '1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
: bushels burh.:l bushels bushels burhels


399
204
336


197
ll
112
1,201.
34
8
252
70


28
165


23
146


191

65



39
868

2
2
1,i:67
180
1

69


133
35
1,733


6,025
144
523
315
320
3,684
410
5,442
149
5,oo6

22, 57
5,425
995
286
114
356
56
587
42
525
30,943


1/ Preliminary.
2/ Lees than 500 bushels.
Compiled from official records of

See table 13 for exports of wheat
beginning July 1935.


the Bureau of Foreign end Domestic Commerce.

flour by specified countries, semi-annually


Fall Sown Wh.at: Acr2A-.n Larger, Condition Generally Good

Data on acreage of fall-sown wheat in Europe are still incomplete but
indications point to a consider;-:ble increase over last 'yar. In the group of
exporting countries a substantial increase over sowi:~s' in 1936 is probable.
In Rumc ii-i the acreage is reported as 11 percent abovo that sown for harvest
in 1937. The other Dr.iubi?-1 countries are reported to have increased their
acrcago, but by a smaller perc-;ntaje. A slight increase is noted in the acre-
age reported in Poland and also in Czochoslova cia (table 3.) A slight increase
is also probable in Lithuania.

In the importing countries conditions are not so uniform, and decreases
in acreage are noted in some countries, notably in Italy, France, and Greece.


---._--i


Ill .... m I


--~-----~-~


------------






7S-16


weather unfavorable for sowin' last fall axccounts for the decreased acreero in
Italy. In France, hon-ve;- -ih.-2e a 3 percent Irop in sown acree e is reported,
the fall weather favored sowings,, but fr,'. grains seem to have been sown in
place of some of the -i,:i-; creek. Great. eece rerorts a seode-I. aren.ge 8 percent
below that of last ye-zu. An increase of about 6 percent is reported for Eng-
lani and Wale-s. Incrzr's-es seem indicaLed for other European countries and the
total European acr-.re so-rn to wheat for harvest in 1938 may, with favorable
spring weather, aTiproach the record figure of 1935 which was 79 million acres.

The ccrJiit~-i of the crop in T-urope is generally good and over a large
part of the cort.ir:nit w-., at the middle cf January, considered better than at
the same time last year.-

In Soviet Ru.ssia the combined nonings of winter wheat and rye showed a
slight increase over tL- creage sorni in 1936. It is believed that the wheat
acreage has been incrcase''i .t the xroense of the rye acreage. Soviet Russia
has announce l i.s plan t) seel o7,271,000 acres of wheat this spring compared
with 64,420,000 rcres rlann.e. lnst spring.

Io si nificatr change is ex:-ectei in the acreage soon in North Africa. In
this region drou,-ht causc-C. some c-.-,r ':rens;ion luring the fall but adequate
moisture has ber. received in most ireas, and the cro; shows improvement.

In India the acreage is officially reported at 31,810,000 acres, compared
with the 1937 acrea,-o cf .2,165,000 acre. The crop is in good condition and
prospects rare Cooi.


Table 3.- Winter 7Theact: Area so.vn in s- ccifiei countries,
harv-st in 1976, 19.7 and 1938


Country


S 1936


for


1937


: l,,'00 acres


1,i'K00 acres


1,000 acres


United States ............. ... ..... :
Canala ............. .......... .
Total (2) ....... .... .
Belgium ...........................

Czechoslovakia J_ .................
France Z/ ................ .... ....
Greece _j ................ ......... :
Italy ... .............. ......... :
Poland ......... ........ ......... .
Rumania ..........................
Total (8) .............. ...:
Total (10) ..... ... ...... .
India 13/ ..........................


49,765
F845
50,350
L20
2, 596
2,206
12, 36
2,r11.
12, 314
3,73,5
7,720

943, 059
94,0:09


32,7c0


57, 612
7839
58,393


422
2,815
1,994
12,772
2,076
12-687
3,736
7,966
44.498
102,891
32,165


V2 To January 1. J January estimate,


7,v'92
690
58,182
128
2,87U
2,028
12,353
1,900
12,066
3,731
8,827
44,257
102,439
31,810


1j Includes spelt.


I- --~ ~ ~ I -


__


F


,o-





s-16 -7 -

Area of Fall Sown P-: Acre- ,e smaller in t.he ULi, d St e

The total of the seven European countries rnTortin-. acr,'Le of fall
rye ,)wn is -about 3 percent above that of a :-'cr a-:o. In Cana "md the
United States, however, there is a, ar ~ C'ecrease in cra In Canda.
the decrease amnurits to 35 percent, but this is not sicnificanf from P, world
standpoint,since Canada seeds s-ich a sr c erc nt-.:e of the tjt.l. The arna
seedc-d in the United Statos is a decrease of 10 percent fr>m the acrezge
seeded last year.


T..oele 4.- Winzter rye: Arera s)wr in specified countries f)r h.arest
in Il7 1937 and 1935

country 1936 37 1938
0.00 sO1crs LO-crs 1, 000 acres

Unitcr-d States ..................: 494 7,593 6,869
C, na~f ... .*. ... .. _. ..'._..' __7_ _.51-
Total (2) ..............: l7____3___ s, ____ L30_
B el iui 3....: ..... .....: 75 g ?j3
Bulgaria .......................: 402 426 36
Czechoslovakia ................: 2466 2, 2,423
France L/ ....................: 1,611 1,620 1,621
Greece .... ............. ... ....: i60 1 60 L/ 171
Poland .. ...................: 14, 6 14,076 14, 7
Rumalia .......... .............. ___ .1 _? 102
Total (7) ...............: 20 3l 20_ 20.604
Total (9 Oountrio).......: ,, 28,o59 27,990

I/ Sowings to January 1.


P3rei.n wheat Lrrices: Southern Hemisphlere s:li.p-nts inpvrtant factor

Influenced by dust storms andi l)w temrperatur.:s in the Southwest winter
wheat belt of the United States, and byr an unsettled political situation abroad,
wheat prices durir.f. the first 2 weeks in Februaary remained a part )f the de-'
dine in prices which )ccurrecd durin- the last half of January, resulting
from increased Southern Hemisphere shipments. During the third week in
February, however, prices turned downward r- ain, influenced largely by rains
in the Southwest winter wheat belt )f the United Sta-tes, continued he:vy
Southern Hemiszphere marketir.::-, and the re-entry of S)viet Russia into the
ma:rket.

A new t,.blo it introduced in this issae (table 5) which -*ives the
Fri py prices of imported wheat at Liver.pool fr~n 6 countries and the United
States, While a division is rourhly mace between rard an:3 soft wheats, no
direct com- ability is implied ',ctwieen the various wheats in each division.
Canadian N). 3 Manitoba is a superior wheat to United States )o. 2 Hard Winter.





wS- 16

Argentine TRsafe is directl7- cor.Ftitive with United States No. 2 Hard Winter,
but while it is currentl:r smne.viat hirher priced over a period of time the
obsafe may run softer than the No. 2 Hard Winter. Rlsafe refers to the
district in Arentina. where the wheat is produced, in which district soft,
semi-hard end hard rvhets are r-.iscd. Rusciq.n wheat is s.ld on sample and
the quotations arc r.-t, stLitlv comparable r-ven for Russjia wheat. It would
r-pear from there rpiices t:hat UTjited States Fi). 2 2".rd 7nter is reasanrnbly
priced compared with. other heats arnd this should f,--or ,a o 5d ex.ort
movement. After mnkin: aliv.anace for the 6-cent Lmperial Preference given
Australian vwheats, United St.tes Pacific Northwest white wheat is also priced
to move. For the vrek ended February 13 price of both United States heats
had declined r.re than had prices of -.heats from other countries.

Table 9 sht'"s the cl)sine prices of May futures in Winnipeg, Liverpnol,
and Buenos Aires, t)ether with thlse at Chica:o, Kansas City, and Minneapolis.

Table 5.- Prices of imported wheat at Liverpool

: Her wheats Soft wheats
Date : U.S. : :Canada : : U.S. : India
(Friday) :(ulf) : A- -en- : il). 3 : Russian:(Pacific): Austra-: choice
:lo.2 Hid.: tine :M31it)b: : iWhite : lian :L.trachi I/
: Winter : racn : c : : / :
193C : Cents Cents erts Cents Cents Cents Cents
Jan,
7 ......: 12.1 129.7 153.9 -- 114.1 l16 .4
14 ......: 129. 1 1141 ;4. -- 113.1 117.0
21 ..,...: 125.7 130.5 1. -- 112.5 116.4
28 .....: 126.7 126.7 152.0 --- 112. 16. 116.5
Feb.
4 .,.. .: 126.1 143.3 --- 114.4 1L6.7 115.1
11 ......: 125.R 129.5 144.4 13?.6 11).0 11,.9 113.8
18 ......: 121. 123.1 109.3 11 112.4

I Empire wheat qualifyin- for Imperial Preference is exempt from duty
(ap'prximating 6 c~nts p-r bushel) uner ir Otawa A-reements of ITovcmoer 1932.

THE DOMESTIC WHEAT SITUATIOr

EACKiGRUITE.- The carry;-over of whept in the United States
for the 5-yr period (1524-2Z) averted about 115 million
bushels. Stock:s vihich beian to accumulate in 1929 reached
the record pea, of 373 million bushels in 1933. Four small
wheat crops since that time, however, had reduced stocks to
about 10' million bushels o' July 1, 1J7.

Domestic wheat prices from the spring of 1933 to that
of 1937 were unusul1,ly hicJh relative to world market prices,
because :f four small dr)es!tic crops caused largely by ab-
normally low yields per acre. During 1936-37 both world and
domestic prices advanced sharply as a result of increased
demand and the smallest supplies in recent years.






- 9 -


Early in the 1937-3 seasn, domestic and forei.:n wheat
prices rose sharply following reports of serious dia-.ag to
the Ceradian crop aid the threat of rust cdrna:e in the United
States, and it via' thou-'t possible at that time that ..'Srl
prices night remain sufficiently above the 19,c-37 levels to
offset the decline in United States prices to an export basis.
However, with an increase of over 100 million bushels in the
estimate of the world crop, excluding Soviet Russia and China,
the likelihood of large shipments from Soviet Russia, a slow
Europeau demand, disturbed business conditions, and a falling
general comnodity price level, wheat prices in world markets
have declined, and the price of .*rheiat at local United States
markets, weighted by monthly sales, is now expected to aver ae
somewhat udder $1 a bushel in 1937-33 compared with $1.03
in 1936-37.

Wheat supplies, distrLiution by classes: 675 million bushes l disappearance

Wh;eat stocks in the United States on January 1, 1938, are estimated.
at 534 million bushels, which is 161 million bushels more than the. estimate
for a year earlier and 104 million buslels more than for 1936 (table 6).
On the basis of these January 1 stocks fimu.res, the wheat disappearance
for the July-December 1937 period is estimated at 391 million bushels, which,
although not so large es during the same period a year earlier, is con-
siderably above average, as a result of heavy feeding during the period of
small corn supplies prior to the corn harvest. The estimates of wheat stocks
on January 1 by classes and positions for 1935-38 are shown in table 10,
and the July-December estimates of disappearance in table 11,

Teble 7 shows the estimated supply and distribution by classes for the
5-year (1929-30 to 1933-34) period, and annually be-l in.r with 1933-34.
The last column includes the Bureau's esti;:.ites of utilization and. carry-over
by classes as revised on the basis of the disappearance in the first half of
the year.

Tatle 12 shows production by classes hi a convenient table, 1919 to 1937.

Table 6.- Wheat stocks in the United States, January 1,1935 to 193S

Position 1935 1936 1937 193
1: ,000 1,000 1,0000 1,000
: bushels bushels bushels .bushels

On fari-s .............: 145,591 163,360 123,314 20S,745
Interior mi'il-s and.
elev t- rs ..........: 92,145 80, 50 79,423 115.536
COmercial ..........e: 90,937 7b.694 62,366 94, 520
Merc-ant .-ii-1 st)c's -
and st)rd. for )th,:rs l/ 106,392 10o9 634 102, 832 115,567
Totrl ............, 435,065 '430,196 3'~7, 935 534,368
------------ ----- -____________
L u Bureau o f --nsus figures raised to represent all merchant.. ill and
elevator stocks.





S-16 10 -
Table 7.- Wheat: Estimated supply an:d distribution by classes, average
1929-30 to 1933--34, cr)p years, 1933-34 t) 1937-33


: Avze ra.e : : : :
Item .:1':-- O t) 19'33- 3: 1)34-35: 1935-36: 1936-37 : 1937-38
.-___._ : -_ _:_
Million Million Miin Millir Millin Millin
:bush ls bashels tashels bushels bushels bushels
: All whe.t
Stacks, July 1 j : 317 373 274 14s 142 1/103 (2/91)
Production ........: 7'2 552 526 626 627 874
Ip)rts 3/ ......... -- -- 16 34 34 ---


30


29


816
13


30
7


o03
12


977 (2/965)
90


Carry-over ........: 325 274 1)4 142 1/103(2/91) 200
Disappearance 5/.,.: 694 627 655 653 6c3(2/70o ) 687 (675)
:Hard Red Winter
Stocks .July 1 ...: 161 20 125 63 57 57 (2/45)
Production ..........: 349 __ 208 203_ 260 375
Supply ......: 510 73 333 271 317 432(2/420)
Exports ,.........: 52 4 3 2 3 65
Carry-over ........: 717 125 63 57 57(2/45) 73
Disappearance ....: 291 243 262 212 257(2/369) 294(2/282)


: Soft Red Winter
Stocks, July 1 ,,,.: 32 31 36 32
Production ......: 18I 16 2 iS3 204
Supply ......: 217 193 224 236


Exports ..........:
Carry-over *..,....:
Disappearance ....,:

Stocks, July 1 ,,,.:
Production ...,,,.:
Imports ..........:
Supply .,...,:
Experts ..,.......:
Carry-over ........:
DisapFearance .....:

Stocks, July 1.....:
Production ........:
Import ..., ....... :
Supply ...... :
Exports ...........:
Carry-.ver ........:
Disappe ranc e .....:


27'
?07
334


15
257
272


S35 36 32 27 15 66
130 157 192 209 219 206
Hard Red Spring
79 9s 74 27 34 18


135


214


107


20 i


53
q


103
'0O


1]h


1 --- ---
7 74 27
134 131 109


24
40o


16
13
M---


9
7
7


64 4 23
20 --- ---


51
25


110


102


120


------ ---
34 1_ 1 _
131 92 101
Durum
5 7
S9 ---
3 4 25 2
-c 34 1 20


7 23
27 22


White


9
23


Stocks, July 1 ....: 21 32 30 1b 17 10
Production ........ : 33 C o 86 100 111
Supply ...... 104 1 1200 102 117 121
Exp rts ...........: 2: 25 10 5 9 25
Carry-jver ........: 24 0T 16 17 10 -3
Disappearnce ..... 52 65 74 SO 9S
F)Otnotes are the seine as for table 11. Estimates for 197-3 a Pre as of Feb. 193
See "The Wheat Situation", Feb. 1937 for the fii~ures for 1930-31 and Aug. 1937
for the figures for 1931-32 to 1932-33 by years.


Supply .....
Experts 4/.........:


2 I


ih6,




WS-16 11 -
Dorestic wheat prices: rc4a im;l v t. j12arj2 .heats

Domestic -heat nrice: flut iate.. --th 'hose "f Liv-rpool j] during the
past month, bin; influenced by the canc >neral factor's. Prices declined the
last half of Jan.:,.r.; as So.uthern EHeis-L.e-u sh.i-wents increased, and rose an in
the first 2 week.- in February with continued. r.istlre arcfieciency and low
temperature in Kra.sa: a..d Oklahor..a, as erll as the unsettled -rolitical si'u-L'tion
abroad. During the third ;eek in Februrr..., rrins in rthe south-west winter -.-heat
belt, together with conrti:uel heavy movcmen!t c.f Southern Hemisrherc wheat and
offers of .Rucsian wheat in foreign narl:Ets, resulted i.: ahot.ier decline in prices.

Table S shcws -rices in i:, ortant lonm-stic uar::, ts. The rrice of !To, 2
Hard Winter at Kansas City declined from. a:r. a"er-,'rc of $1.0 for the --eek ended
January 15 to $1.01 ior the week endei Febriuary ar.i *he-i rose a.rain to $1.03
for the we-:k ended February 12.

Wheat pricess in the next few veeks arre oex ectei to be influenced largely
by European buyinr-, cror conditions in tht Hr.rd Winter :-he:t Stat.?s, ani ty
general business sentiment. 'Theat richess in February .nl karch are usually
seasonally lo-.er t.ian i.-. Janwx'ry, infl-ienciei :. Lea--, nar!:etin.ts of Argentine
and Australian -heat. This y-.'-'Er, :o--e--cr, t:ic decline may not be as large as
usual.

Later or, -her. shi-:.: ts from t..e Sou h'ern H-misph'-re countries decline,
increased takings from the United State; 7-ill r.robatly follo-, ani a rise in
wheat prices may then occur. World ;u'-. lies cf -har'd millinL wnhatz outside of
the United States are snall.

j See "Forei-in -heat prices or:- :-e 7.

Table 8.-Weihtted average cash Trice of rt lat, specified -arkets and
dates, 1936-37 and 1377-3'

:All clacs-c: ITo. 2 : 1o. 1 : oo. 2 Har: Ho. 2 : Western
and g-raduez :Hnrt Winter :Dk.:. 3. rin.:A,-,Ler r .1u, :Red Winter : E ite
Date ix r.aretts:,n C inssi i ir,. Lo.,is :;SeatlZe I/
:1930-:1^37-:1 .c--:1 .37-:153.-:1 7-:1 ::-:1 ,7-:194..'*-:1937-:'1 -:1957-.
2._ : u7 L8 zZ L I: ,Li. Lu_ L__ U.: &. : -,: :, .JJ__ .. :____
Month- :Cents Gi C-nts C n t Cnts I r.- t CCet t C Q- ten e.t.g C'ta C_ rets
Nov. :127.5 93.5 1 1.9 '4.2 14h.L 115.3 14.> 1,0.2 122.7 93.2 1 S1,.8
Dec. :139.3 46.2 1 4.2 96.5 1c59.0 1 i. 170.5 I5. 13..h 95.0 112.7 85.5
Jan. :144.3 102.4 1 S.c, I92.7 165.' 127.9 171.35 l':.7 13'. 100.2 112.2 88.9
Week
ended-
Jan. 8 :149.6 101.2 140.8 98.3 I .2 10.. 1' 1 142.l8 7.3 I113. 6.9
15 :1i48.0 105.2 i 9.6 104.8 164 1 1.1 i:.:: 1 .9 1 41.2 1)1.7 114.0 90.0
22 :140.5 1(2.7 1. 5. 103.9 1S..1 125.6 16;4. 107.5 13.1 1, .. 111.8 89.1
29 '4 1-. E I- .- I F,
29 :16. 1i'0.8s 1- .h 101.? 122.5 171.6 108. q 1- .6 100.5 10,.5 29.5
Feb. 5 :13-.9 Sq.C 176.0 100.6 129. 108. 2 140.0 100.4 112.4 ?0.5
12 :142. 10 0.2 It .9 102. 161.5 12L.J 202.0 110.1 41.6 100.2 117.1

High J/ :19.6 105.2 143.9 14.Sg 167.5 171.1 202.0 110.1 144.6 101.7 117.1 90.5
'Low / :136.4 99.6 15..4 98.3 158.1 12.5 164.2 107.5 136.6 97.3 109.5 86.9

SWeekly average of daily cash quotatio.:s, basis 11o. 1 Facked.
2/ io quotations October 31 December 9, 193o due to strike.
] January 3 to February 12, 1933 and corresponding datcs for 1937.




- 12 -


Table 9.- Average closing prices of May wheat futures, specified markets and
dotea, 1936-37 and 1937-38

: Winnipeg .:.Liverpool : Buenos : Chicago Kansas : Minneap-
Date : I/ /: / Aires C. ity : olis-
:1935-:1937- :1936-:1937-:1l36- :1937-:1936-51937-:1?-6-:1937-:1936-:1937-
: -t 8 7 ;8 : 37 38 7 37 7 98 7 3 37 ; T


:Ge~nts. Cents
Month i
Nov. :107.8 110.4,
Dec. :120.5 116.3

Jan. :124.3 126.3
Week :
ended :
Jan. 8:127.8 126.3
15:127.2 127.2
22:122.2 125.3
29:120.0 126.5
Feb. 5:124.2 126.7
12:128.9 128.4

Hibfj:128.9 128.4
Low 3.:120.0 125.3


Cent Cents Cents .ents Cents enats Cnts Cents-r .enta CntsL


112.6 116.3 --
125.6 112.6 -

127.2 113.9 --


131,0 113.8 9
129.9 114.8 8
125.8 114.3 6
122.0 113.1 94
125.6 112.8 97
128.5 114.2 100


-- 114.7
-- 128.3


90.8 110.9
92.1 122.5


87.2 124.6 97.9
89.3 136.4 99.7


-- 131.2 95.5 124.7 94.2 138.4 105.4


.108.9 133.14
.2 12.0 133,8
.1 109.8 130.0
.7. 109.1 127.6
.4 109.6 130.9
.5 108.9 135.9


131.0 114.8 '00.5 h12.0 135.9
122.0 112.S 394.7"O8.9 127.6


94.7 127.3
97.4 127.5
95.9 123.2
94.4 120.7
94.2 123.7
95.3 128.7

7. 4 128.7
94.2 12n.7


92.3 141.7 103.2
96.3 141.4 107.3
95.0 136.8 106.0
93.4 133,8 105.3
93.2 136.8 105.6
94.3 141,9 106.3

96.3 141.9 107.3
92.3 133.8 103.2


3] Conversions at noon buying. rate of exchange. '/ March futures. 3/ January 8
to February 12, 1938, and corresponding dates 1937. ./ March and May futures.


___Y


_ ..____ _F __ ___~ _____ ___ __


WS-16




- 13 -


Table 10.- Estimates of stocks of r-heat by clause:;, continental United States,
Jar.'Iry 1, 1935-3"

Position : 195 1976 1937 1938

: Million Million Million M1illion
: bb-sLels b.shel s b-ushel s bl~.she1


Form stocks ............... 146
Interior mill anid elevator
stocks ....................: 92
Commercial stocks ..........: 91
Merch.nrt mill stocks J .... : 106
Total ....................: 3

Hard re l 7,inn: :
Farm stocks ................: 50
Interior mill and elevator :
stocks ................... : 29
Commercial stocks .......... : 4o
Merchant mill stocks .......: 59
Total ......... ....... 17
Soft red w7inrter:
Farm stocks ................: 52
Interior mill and elevator :
stocks ....................: 19
Commercial stocks ..........: 30
Merchant mill stocks .......: 25
Total ................... 126
Hard rei srin1 :
Farm stocks ............... .: 27
Interior .ill and elevator :
stocks ................... : 4
Commercial stocks ..........: 14
Merchant mill stocks .......: 13
Total ..... .. ...............:


163 12g 209


81
77
109


so
62
103


115
95
115
'--a,-


______U 5(5 ___J _
4 30 3573 53

4o 4o. 75

23 21 36
27 31 52
57 60 71
14 7 152 234

53 41l 65

16 15 22
16 12 25
17 16 20
102 S4 132

43 25 38

l4 9 13
27 12 10
27 19 15
11i 65 --- 76


Duirum:
Farm stocks ................:
Interior mill and elevator :
stocks ....................:
Commercial stocks ..........:
Merchant mill stocks .......:
Total .... ................


11

3

3
21


ih te:
Farm stocks ................: 13 16
Interior mill and elevator :
stocks ....................: 28 24
Commercial stocks...........: 5 5
Merchant mill stocks .......: 6 6
Total ...................: 52 51
1J Bureaui of Census fi. ires raised to represent all
stocks, incl-uin. stored for others.


33 41
6 4
7 6
62 71
merchant mill and elevator


ws-16


.--y--~-~


------r C


-'----- --- --- -`-~-~- -- --~ ""


- -- -


I -


IC-----C~-C---LIICI


--- ----





- 14 -


Table ll.-Estimates of -"heat stocks, July 1, July-December inports and exports,
January 1 stocks,and July-Decer.ber disa]-pearan-ce,conti.ental Unitel States,1934-37
-- -. r n -~,I


Item : 193h
: M illio:
: bushel


All -.heat
Stocks, July 1 I ... .............:
+ Production .............................:
4 Imports, July-Dec. v/ ...........:
- Exports, July-Dec. / .......... :
- Stocks, Dec. 31 .................. :
Disappearance, .July-Dec. 5] ...:
Hard Red Winter :
Stocks, July 1 ...................
4 Production ........ ..... ... ........:
- Exports, July-Dec. ............. .
- Stocks, Dec. 31 ..................
Disappearance, July-Dec. .......:
Soft Red Winter
Stocks, July 1 ...................;
+ Production ..... ...... ............:
- Stocks, Dec. 31
Disappearance, July-Dec. ......:


1935 : 1936 1937
n Million Million Million
S jushesea busele bushels


274 148 142 I/ 103 (V2 91
526 626 627 874
8 21 26 0
9 4 6 40
435 430 373 534
364 361 46 403 (2/391


125
208
2
17s


153

36
1.8
126


62
203
1
147


123


32
204
102


134


57
260
1
152


164


27
207
84


150


57
375
31
234


(2 45


167 (2155


15
257
132


1140


Hard Red Sprin :
Stocks, July 1 ....................:
4 Production ... ............ ........
4 Imports, July-Dec. ............... :
- Stocks, Dec. 31 .... ............. .
Disappearance, July-Dec. .......:

Stocks, July 1 ....................
4 Production ....................... :
4 Imports, July-Dec. ...............
- Stocks, Dec. 3. ...................
Disappearance, July-Dec .......:
White,
Stocks, July 1 ....................:
4 Production ....................... :
- Exports, July-Dec. .............. :
- Stocks, Dec. 31 .................. :


74 27 34 is
53 10S 51 102
4 19 15
68 ll 65 76
o j35 _44


S13 17


17
100
5
62


3
29

21
11


10
111
9
71


Disappearance, Jul.y-Dec. .......: 41 448 50 41
J/ Comparable series of July 1 stocks contains some new what.
2/ In 1937 new wheat was estimated at 12 million bushels, which if deducted, would
result in stocks on July 1 of 91 million bushels and a disappearance, July-De-
cember, of 391 million bushels,
J/ From reports of Foreign and Domeestic Commerce of the United States. Imports
include full-duty wheat, wheat paying a duty of 10 percent ad valorem, and flour
in terms of wheat. j/ From reports of Foreign and Domestic Commerce of the United
States. ,Exports are regular exports plus shipments to Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto
Rico, and include wheat and flour made wholly from domestic wheat.
5/ Balancing item.


'"I~ ~ -- ---


-


---


I


-- -~-





Table 12.- Estimated production of wheat in the


nter : Spring:
: Soft : Hard :


: Red


: Hard
: Red
: 1,000


White


Durum


1,000
bushels


: bushels


Winter


: Red

bushel s


Spring


1,000
bushels


1,000
bushels

141,263
151,518
131,587
169,809
132,293
193,235
165,780
123,282
206,679
202,803
145,621
157,378
72,439
189,939
106,469
53,279
107,975
50,742
102,408


Total


1,000
bushels

60,707
52,641
56,947
51,092
59,234
35,274
33,486
44,720
59,274
57,563
50,763
50,304
49,355
52,131
37,208
41,501
57,831
52,689
53 ,.386


Year


33,090
47,667
57,854
85,571
42,373
61,543
60,377
45,320
81,423
99,008
57,117
59,522
22,099
42,252
17,816
6,891
24,759
8,836
28,749


29,284
30,865
26,730
19,810
29,517
13,276
41,924
32,004
38,769
33,496
34,240
35,965
21,740
32,941
'50,880
28,260
28,291
47,314
57,734


Total


1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937


S. *SS

S. C C
* C R S

* S S S
S. *.C
.55.5







...


1,000
bushels

89,991
83,506
83,677
70,902
88,751.
48,550
75,410
76,724
98,043
91,059
85,003
86,269
71,095
85,072
88,088
69,761
86,122
100,003
111,120


356,925
239,649
2-2,381
221,432
237,248
185,927
162,962
215,709
166,592
12'7,393
164,400
179,692
262,006
159,214
162,313
188,602
204,256
207,410
256,552


330,828
320,937
323,465
298,935
258,817
352,362
204,171
371,178
322,322
394,110
371,076
403,609
514,035
23.:, 450
176,997
207,860
203,232
259,775
375,164


1,000
bushels

952,097
843,277
818,"61
846,649
7 .9,4 2
841,617
603,700
832,213
875,059
914,373
823,217
836,470
941,674
756,927
551,683
526,393
626,344
626,766
873,993


~~ ~ ~ I~ __


Wi


_ =-- .I---~


I


-- -


---


-- -- --


United States, by classes, 1919-37






WS-16


- 16 -


Table 13.-United States exports of wheat flour, made wholly from
United States wheat, to specified countries, semi-annually,
beginning July 1935


: 1935-36 : 1936-37 : 1937-38
Commodity and : July- : Jan.- : July- : Jan.- July-
countr' : Dec. : June : Dec. : June : Dec. 1/
: 1,000 1,OCO 1,000 1,000 1,000
Barrels barrels barrels barrels barrels
Wheat flour 2/
Netherlands .......... 9 8 53 106 248
Norway ...............: 3 2 3/ --- 24
United Kingdom .......: 28 16 24 21 70
Costa Rica ...........: 7 8 7 14 22
Guatemala ...........: 34 25 21 33 53
Uicaragua ............: 22 18 15 18 15
Panama ...............: 26 28 28 24 37
Salvador .............: 6 12 7 11 15
*r.iexico ............... : 6 3 4 8 13
Cuba .................: 95 83 80 102 207
Haiti, Republic of ...: 7 5 9 11 18
Ecuador ..............: 6 8 25 26 65
Venezuela ............: 4 3 3 4 32
China ................: 3 3 3 10 8
Hong Kong ............: 20 18 14 20 164
Philippine Islands ...: 124 126 238 233 294
Other countries ......: 32 34 47 79 254

Total .............: 429 400 578 720 1,539

Compiled from official records of the Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce.
1/ Preliminary.
2/ To convert to wheat equivalent miltiply by 4.7.
3/ 'Less than 500.









Table 14.- Monthly sales of wheat and rye by farmers, Uni ted States


Crop and : Percentage of receipts during _
season :June :Juily :Alg. :Sept.: Oct. : Nov. : Dec.: Jan.: Feb.: Mar.: Apr.: ,-Ly : June
:Per- Per- Per- Per- Per- Per- Per- Per- Per- Per- Per- Per- Per-
: cent cent cent cent cent cent cent cent cent cent cent cent cent


Wheat
Av. 1924-25 to
1933-34, incl.
1.-,5;-36
1936-37

Rye
Av. 1924-25 to
1933-34, incl.
1935-36
1035- 37


: 3.9
: 2.4
: 5.8


: .1


20.1 19.8 15.0
19.3 25.9 17.6
35.6 15.8 8.6


9.1 22.4 20.4
5.5 19.3 18.4
18.6 20.0 14.4


9.7
9.7
6.7


13.5
13.6
9.9


6.2
4.4
4.3


8.0
7.5
6.5


5.1 .4.2
3.C 3.7
5.5 3.1


6.0
5.4
7.3


4.7
4.9
4.1


4.1 3.3 2.9
2.5 3.4 2.6
3.4 3.8 2.7


4.1
4.4
4.7


3.2
7.1
4.7


2.6
4.5
3.9


3.4
2.2
2.9


2.8
5.1
3.7


2.3
2.5
1.8


3.2
4.2
2.2


--------'~-"~-~ I--





Ws-1 6


Table 15.-Movement of wheat, including flour, fror.i rincipal export-
ing countries, 1934-35 to 1937-35


Country


United States
Canada .......
Argentina ...
Australia ...
Russia .......
Hungary ......
Yugoslavia ...
Runania ......
Bulgaria ....
British India


: Exrorts as Piven by official sources
:Total : July 1 to date shown : Date
:193- -:1J"35-33 :1936-37:13;-36:193-17 : 1937-38 : _i
: 1,000 : 1,000 : 1,000 : 1,OO : 1,000 : 1,000 :
:bushels:bushels :bs :buls:bushels:bushels: bushels :'
:: : : '


......: 21,532: 15,929
...... :16q,630:237,h47
...... :17, 0oo 76,577
...... :10~007:102,255
......: 4286: 29,70o
......: 12, 4 : 14,64
......; 4,4 1: 7228
......: 3,432: 6,391
......: 375: 596,
... .. 2, 3 : 2,556


Total ........


: 21,534: 7,771: 10,921: 42,594
:213,23:141i,511:171,161: 69 ,56
:162,0c5: 54,407: 66,63?: 31,535
95,970: 33,7-5: 25,70S: 27,386 :
:4,479: ,o301: C90: 9,969
27,423: 6,339: 14,950: 4,126 :
17,302: 97: 9,16-: 4,445 :
: 35,5 4-~ 9,706: 19,307: 20,695
7,273: 72: 3,622: 3,968
:14, 674 6: 1,02


Dec. 31
Jan, 31
Jan. 3.
YA". 3$
Sept.30
Nov. 31
Nov. 3
Nov.
Nov.
-Aura.


:51. 40:487.222 :599,363: -
: ___ Shipments as eiven b trade sources .
S Total : eek ended i3-3 1 Ju1 zl_- Feb 12
:1 -36:1936-37 :Jan,29:Feb ;i:Febjo.12: .19t-37 7.-
1,000 : 1,000 :1,000 :1,000 :1,000 : 1,000 : 1,000
bu.shc. bishelsbusheshael..sb-shels bushels : bushels


North American 1/ :220,464:225,902 :3,6'S : 3,575: 3,567: 166,256: 117,422
Canada,4 markets j' :246,199:19,4,531 : 426 : 524: 650: 160,6c5: 62,14g6
United States ......: 7,219: 10,049 :1,391 : 1,653: 2,240: 5,67g: 48,043
Argentina ..........: 78,312:164,673 :2,18 : 3,c114: 2,201: 75,056: 32,507
Australia .........:110,576:105,S36 :3,10g : 2,193: 3,355: 52,708: 54,037
Russia .............: 29,024: C : 1434 : L56: 296: S: 33,912
Danube & Bl._,ri a J: S,312: 65,5144 : s6: 920: 5A4: 46,136: 28,112
British India ......: /2,556: 64, 4, : 0 : 200: 96: 7,7S4: 10,962
Total 5/ ....... :449,244:576,722 : : : : 354,02G: 276,952
Total European sliip-: : : : : :i
ments IJ ..........:6 : 3,264:494 :a 624 : : : 257,74: 21 072
Total ex-European : : : : : :"
shipments I/ ......:131,760:127,192 :2,096 : : 6,696 : 51,640

VI Broomhall's Corn Trade Uew7s.
2/ Fort William, Port Arthur, Vancouver, Prince Rupert, and Iew Vestminister.
I/ Black Sea shipments only.
/ Official.
if Total of trade figures includes North America as reported by Broomhall's
but does not include items 2 and 3.
]/ To January 29.


---_ ---- ------*m(llCl


- 18 -


m






WS-16


- 19 -


Table 16.-Exports of wheat and wheat flour from the United States,
1956-37 and 1937-38
(Includes flour -J.lled in bond from foreign wheat)


W1Theat
1936-37 : 1937-38
1,000 1,000
bushcls bushels


Heat
1956-57
1, 000
irrOCs
birrels


flour
: 1937-38
1,COYu
barrels


: Wheat including flour
: 1936-37 :1937-38
1,O0 1, 000
bushels bu he s


July-Dec.
Week ended-
Jan. 8
15
22
29
Feb. 5
12


Compiled from reports


of the F*.partmu-nt of CoTrrlerce.


Table 17.-Shipnents of ':.he'it, including flour from princioal- exporting
countries, Ececifi.ed dates, 1936-3? 9nd 1937-38

Pe Arntin :f Australia : Danube : IIorth America
Period :1-6-S7:197-8:1936-7 :19 7-3.-6:1936-37 :197 -38:1936-37 : 1937-38
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000000 100 1,000 1,000 1,000
:bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels bushels


July-Dec.
Week ended-
Jan. 8
15
22
29
Feb. 5
12
19


: 35,256 19,896 36,320 38,452 41,088 24,912 147,048 95,176

3,928 1,052 2,000 812 904 368 3,904 3,568
:5,740 1,656 1,720 3,592 1,392 288 2,760 4,096
: 7,724 2,500 3,756 2,460 952 264 3,800 3,832
S7,488 2,188 3,636 3,180 424 856- 2,712 3,608
: 7,896 3,016 2,660 2,176 752 920 3,000 3,704
: 7,024 2,201 2,616 3,358 624 504 3,072 3,587
:7,896 3,464. 2,408 3,445 196 504 2,160


Compiled from Broomhall's Corn Trade News.


Period


1,5c8B
1 589
1,902
1,796
1, :69
1,247
2,C47


2,479

84
51
45
26
65
41


10,921

103
61
43
85
92
132


42,594

1,983
2,142
2,008
1,391
1,653
2,240


B


-


--~--" ~-~ -"--~-"I-


*


--


--


1,955







- 20 -


Table 17.-Net imports of heat, including flour, into European
countries, year beginning July 1, 1936-37
and 1937-38


Country


: 1936-37

: million
: bushels


Austria ......... .... :
Belgium ............. :
Czechoslovakia ...... :_/
Denmark .............:
Finland ...........:
France .............. :
Germany ............. :
"Greece ..............:
Irish Free State ....:
Italy ............:/
Latvia .......... :1/
.Netherlands .........:
Norway ............... :
Poland .............. :2/
Portugal ............
Sweden ..............:
Switzerland .........
United Kingdom ......:

Total imports of
above ........ :
Spain ..............
Total imports ......:
Total exports ......:

Total, net exports .:


10
40
-11
7
4
7
23
21
14
55
1
21
9
-6
4/
4/
19-
199


430

46G
17


419


Net imports reported
July 1
to 1936-37
to :


:1937-38 VI
:forecast:
Million
bushels

10
40
2/ -1
7
3
26
28
13
14
6
0
24
6 :
2/ -1
1
2/ -1
17
202

::
399
1 :
400
3

397


Million
bushels

4
20
:2/ -2
4
S 2
1
: 3/
8
8
: 7I
4/
10
S 4
:2/ -4
S 3/
:2/ -
10
101




179

172
172


ated.


1937-38
Million
bushels

3
19
2/ -2
3
1
4
26
6
8
5
3/
12
3
.4/
3/

7
98


Nov.
Nov.
Dec.
Dec.
Nov.
Oct.
Dec.
Nov.
Dec.
Dec.
Nov.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec,
Nov.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.


195
2


Compiled from official sources except as


otherwise st


1/ Forecast by European offices of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics,
2/ Net exports.
3 Net exports of less than 500,000 bushels.
SLess than 500,000 bushels.


WS-16


UNIVERSITY O1 FLODA

126208661 8391


I


193


98


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