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THE 1948 OUTLOOK ISSUE FOR RELEASE SEPT.11, A.M. --1---- SITUATION BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE WS 102 (Pr AUGUST 1947 ALL WHEAT AND WINTER WHEAT: ACREAGE,YIELD AND PRODUCTION, UNITED STATES, 1919-47 ACRES (MILLIONS) 60 40 BUSHELS 16 12 8 BUSHELS (MILLIONS) 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 *SEEDED PRECEDING FALL U. S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE I I - i "p -7 - 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 194 DATA FOR 1946 AND 1947 ARE PRELIMINARY NEG 42549 BUREAU OF A-RICULTURAL ECONOMICS Seedings of .all wheat for the 1947 crop, at 77.1 million bushels, including vol- unteer wheat, was 8 percent above the 1946 average and 16 percent above the 1936-45 average of 66.5 million acres. With production indicated as of August I at 1,428 mil- lion bushels, the 1947 wheat crop again set a new high record. Because of its import- ance in the total crop changes in winter wheat are similar to those for all wheat. The national acreage goal for 1948 totals 75 million acres, the same as the high 1947 acre- age, exclusive of volunteer wheat. AUGUST 1947 2 - Table 1.- Estimated supply and distribution of wheat, by classes, continental United States, 1941-47 / : Year beginning July S191 : 1942 : 1943 : 1944 : 1945 : 1946 : 1947 g *.* t *fl 1...fl ~ i.. fl41 ..` : m1. D. All wheat Stocks, July 1 ...: 385 Production .......: 942 Imports ..........: 4 Supply .........: 1331 Exports 3 .......: 31 Carry-over .......: 631 Domestic disap- : pearance ......: 669 Hard red winter Stocks, July 1 ...: 160 Production .......: 396 .u.pP ......... : 556 Exports ..........: 20 Carry-over .......: 291 Domestic disap- pearance ......: 245 Soft red winter Stocks, July 1 ...: 40 -Production ....... 204 Supply .........: 244 Exports ..........: 2 Carry-over ....... 54 Domestic disap- : pearance ......: 188 Hard red spring Stocks, July 1 ... : 136 Production .......: 202 TmTt-r 4 Supply ..... Exports ...... Carry-over ... Domestic disa pearance .. Durum. Stocks, July 1 Production ... Imports ...... Supply .... Exports ...... Carry-over ... Domestic dis 631 969 1 01 ,s 34 61 0 948 1217 986 898 773 291 486 717 317 619 844 1I6 1 99 66 31A 316 1060 42 Il lk 153 P70 100 1156 0 125IPh 400 8 61 581 630 619 789 439 534 360 357 313 54 29 18 19 11 9 149 125 204 213 197 242 203 154 222 232 208 251 1 2 10 65 27 29 18 19 11 9 173 134 193 156 172 .. 42 413 567 425 335 253 277 ....: 2 2 14 24 53 39 206 205 150 112 39 30 ap- : ... 134 206 403 289 243 184 ...: 25 34 27 14 8 5 9 ... 41 42 34 30 33 36 46 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 66 76 62 47 41 41 55 .... 0 1 1 2 1 1 ....: 7 14 8 5 9 pearance ......: 32 47 37 White Stocks, July 1 ...: 24 46 41 21 31 8 8 Production ....... 86 94 122 120 127 131 Supply .........: 123 132 135 143 151 13 139- Erports ...........--- 7 9 15- 5 36 54 Carry-over .......: 46 41 21 31 8 8 Domestic disap- : pearance ......: 70 82 107 107 73 y1 -194 in the w Br SSM madeVT I hs4 page . / Subject to revision. 3/ hio e made from U. S. wheat also includes shipments to U. S. territories. ap- : a E11.....Ja,. BL... b.S. ELL.&L 6 1- -- 1 4 11 AM I -102 3 - !.'* - - - THE W HEAT SIT U A T N -, Approved by the Outlook and Situation Soard, September 3, 1947 S SUMMARY OF TiE OUTLOOK FOR WVEAT AI RYE S Demand for very large exports of United.States wheat is very likely to continue through 1948-49. The quantity of wheat the United States has to export, .,however, will not be sufficient to meet demands unless yields are again unusually large. Because of current high prices, growers will seed fully as many acres in wheat for the 1948 crop as for the 1947 crop and the acreage goal announced on July 31 will be reached. The goal calls for 75 million acres, about the acreage seeded for the 1947 crop excluding volunteer acreage which was harvested. Although it calls for all- out production, the goal provides that the acreage planted should be consistent 'with good farming -ractices. State workers have been asked to review the goals for their particular States from tne standpoint of moisture conditions, need for oilbearing and other crops and for summer fallow requirements. It is imTossibie to make an accurate forecast of wheat yields for next year. By making certain assumption in this regard, however, it is possible to throw some 'light on the export situation and its effect on price. If yields equal the 1937-46 average of 14.3 bushels per seeded acre, 75 mil- lion acres would produce 1,070 bushels. Assuming about 800 million bushels are used domestically, about 270 million bushels would be available for export or addi- .tion to carry-over. A crop of this size would not provide enough wheat for export to meet expected demands. The picture oaan cs if it is assumed that yields will be 16.3 bushels per acre, the average for 1942-48 when the weather was unusually favorable. Such a yield on 75 million' acres would result in a crop of 1,220 million bushels. If such a crop were obtained, more wheat might be used for feed, and domestic uses might total about 850 million bushels. This "rould leave about 370 million bushels for export and increase in carry-over. This would probably be enough to meet ex- port demands and provide for some increase in II. S. stocks if conditions abroad improve sufficiently. If a crop of only about 1,070 million bushels is produced, it is likely that prices in 1948-49 will continue above support levels. Whether they would de- l:line to or below support levels with a very large crop would depend upon the size :of the crop relative to the export demand. Before exports in the postwar period :raised prices abo-:e surport levels, prices usually fell below the loan following Sharpest, but advanced above it later in the season. As a result of very high rye prices in the past two years, the 2.3 million- :eare rye goal fot 1948 may be reached. This would be 18 percent above the acres harvested in 1947, but only 62 percent of the 1937-41 average, Assuming an aver- age yield of 12 bushels per acre, 2.3 million acres would produce about 27-1/2 mil- lion bushels. On the basis of a crop of this size, food, feed, and alcohol-spirit use might be slightly above that in 1947-48 and seed about the same. While scme e might be expoSed, the total quantity would be srall. iWith very limited rye a ye isappeara ce in 194t-47 vns the smallest in years and prices a consieraaly te 1917-18 record. SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT .WEAT SITUATION On August 1 wheat production was estimated at 1,428 million bushels, only slightly below the July estimate of 1,436 million and still the largest in our history. Because the corn crop will be small, more wheat will be fed than last year. The amount will depend on the outturn of the corn crop but may reach 325 million bushels. For this reason, domestic disappearance of wheat in the 1947-48 marketing year may total 925 million bushels. Since the supply is about 1,500 million bushels, about 575 million bushels would be left for export in 1947-48 and for carry-over July 1, 1948. In order to provide a reserve of 175 million bushels for contingencies and carry-over, it would be necessary to limit exports ti not more than 400 million bushels, or about the same amount as was exported in : 1946-47. The carry-over last July was permitted to drop to 83 million bushels, because of the unusually large prospective 1947 crop. About 190 million bushels of wheat (including flour) of the t0 mlllcnbushebl ob. jective hae been allocated or committed for export in July-October. It is esti- ' mated that all of the commitments have been procurred by P.M.A. and commercial handlers to date, and actual lifting for export are running well in advance of the monthly allocations. Fully one-fourth of the September program had been cleared in August. In addition, P.M.A. has procurred enough wheat and flour for application on the November program to make a total export procurement of 200 million bushels. Wheat prices are currently about 40 to 50 cents above loan levels. They would be lower if corn prices were not so high. However, the influence of corn prices on wheat prices will be reduced when new crop corn becomes available. Wheat prices have also been strengthened by the general deterioration of the Canadian crop. On the other hand, wheat prices tend to be weakened by the possibility of sizeable exports from Russia and by prospects for a considerably larger crop in Australia than in recent years. Foreign demand will again exceed supplies available for export in surplus producing countries. While prospects for large exports are favorable in the United States, the crop in Canada is estimated at only 359 million bushels, com- pared with 421 million last year and the 1936-45 average of 371 million. Grow- ing conditions for the December harvest in the Southern Hemisphere are generally favorable, particularly in Australia. The acreage in Australia may be up about 2| percent from last year, but the first official estimate of the acreage seeded in Argentina indicates a reduction of about 13 percent from 1946. Information received during the past month tends to confirm the generalizatid that wheat production in Europe, excluding Soviet Russia, may be 10 percent or moi below the 1946 harvest and substantially below the prewar average. Prospects are' poorest in Western Europe, which includes several countries to which the United States exported substantial quantities of grain during the past year. The crop Asia is probably near the 1946 level, but prospects are not favorable in areas which received significant quantities of U. S. wheat in 1946-47. Wheat stocks in the 4 major exporting countries -- United States, Canada, Argentina, and Australia -- on July 1, 1947 were about 379 million bushels. This is slightly smaller than the 387 million bushels last year, the smallest since. 19 and about 83 percent of the 1935-39 average of 458 million bushels. (For release September 11, a. m.) . :* : ""I WHEAT: PRICE RECEIVED BY FARMERS AND PARITY PRICE. UNITED STATES. 1909-47 CENTS PER BUSHEL 250 ----- Actual price -- 200 - ........ ... .o.1 Parity price* r I I. Base period. Aug 190ii July l914 i 150 :------------tf j--- - 100 -- - 50 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 YEAR BEGINNING JULY *PARITY PRICE NOT AVAILABLE BY MONTHS. 1910-22 U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE NEG. 39712 IURiAU OF AGRICULIURAL ECONJIIICS Figure I. Wheat prices, except for August 1946, have been above parity since early May 1946. Since 1920, prices received by farmers for wheat have risen above parity in 1924-25, 1925-26, 1936-37, in addition to the past year. In 1924, foreign demand for United States wheat increased as a result of a very small crop in Canada. In 1925, the crop in the United States was small, and in 1936 United States supplies were greatly reduced following 4 years of short crops. In World War I, the world supply was small, compared with demand, and prices in the United States rose considerably above parity. Since 1941, both the supply and demand were very large. 6 WHEAT. NO. 2 HARD WINTER: CASH PRICE, LOAN VALUE. AND CEILING AT KANSAS CITY, 1937-47 I 1. - CENTS PER BUSHEL 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 JULI JfAN JULY .IAN JULY JAN JULY JAN JUL JA14 JULY JAN JULY JAN ,JULV JAN JULY JAN JULY JAN JULY JAN JULY 1937-38 1998 39 1939-40 1940-41 1941-42 1942-43 1943-44 1944-45 1945-46 /1946-47 1947-48 MARKETING TEAR BEGINNING JULY AVL'RAE CF ALL rEP'ORrEu, SALES A ORDIN.ARYi PhOTnrin NEI. 41311 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS U 5 DEPARTMETIII OF AGRICULTURE Figure 2. In each marketing year from 1938 through 1942, the wheat price started below the loan level and advanced substantially by spring. Largely as the result of a very large non-food demand, the price In 1943-44 started above the loan level and by December ad- vanced to about parity, where the calling was established. Since 1945, the price has been held above the loan level by a very large export demand. In the chart above, the cash price rises from the ceiling level because the cash price used Includes the pay- ment of premiums for above-average protein. Although the ceiling prices permitted pay- ment of these premiums, they are not reflected In the ceiling shown in the chart. Neg. 43311 l . e'C r THE OUTLOOK F AT THE OUTLOOK FOR WHEAT I4' :.Growers to Seed as Large an Acreage as for the 947 Crop S Growers will seed fully as much in response to current high prices. ubtedly will be reached. The goal h 1947 acreage excluding volunteer wheat for the 1948 crop as for the 1947 crop, As a result, the acreage goal for 1948 un- called for 75 million acres, the same as wheat. The national goal called for all-out production consistent with good farming atices. State workers have been asked to review the goal for tneir particular tate from the standpoint of moisture conditions, need for oilbearing and other rops, and for summer fallow requirements. Farmers in dry-land areas were cautioned against plowing up of sod lands not suited for farming over a period f years. Relatively high wheat acreages were suggested for the Corn Be3t because he lateness of this year's season may result in more land being available for feeding to wheat this fall. If 75 million acres are planted to wheat and yields equal the 1937-46 average if 14.3 bushels per seeded acre, the 1948 crop would be 1,070 million bushels 2/. Af yields equal the 16.3 bushels per acre 3/,the average of 1942-46 when weather as very favorable, production would be about 1,220 million bushels. A crop of ,070 million bushels probably would be distributed about as follows, in million ushels: Food 510, feed 200, seed 85, industrial 10, exports and increased in carry-over 265. If a crop of 1,220 million bushels were produced, the quantity used for feed might be increased to 250 million bushels and that for export and possible increase in carry-over to 365 million bushels. The demand for feed from the 1948 wheat crop will be strong until after the 1948 corn crop is harvested. Table showing acreage, yield, and production, 1937-47, by principal types of heat, is shown in The Wheat Situation for July 1948, page 2. Yields have been increasing in recent years, not only because of favorable grow- conditions, but also as a result of improved varieties, more timely seeding made eible by modern machinery, and the practice of summer fallowing. The 1937-41 erage yield per seeded acre was 12.5 bushels; reported condition for these years ~&e about equal to the long-time (1919-47) average. The yield in 1947 was 18.5 ohele. However, if the weather conditions in 1947 had cnly equaled the long-time average, studies of yield trends indicate that the yield would have been about 5 bushels. This would indicate that in 1947 about 4 bushels was the result of e-avverage growing conditions. The above-average conditions were widely dis- Ibuted in practically all of the wheat areas of the United States. Average yields per seeded acre from 1942 to 1946 were as follows: 18.3; 15.1; .0; 16.0; and 16.2. 0ll BACKGROUND. The acreage seeded to wheat for the 1947 crop was 77.1 million acres (including volunteer wheat harvested). This was 8 percent above the 71.5 million acres in 1946, 16 percent above the 1936-45 average of 66.5 million acres, and only slightly below the record high of 80.8 million for the 1937 crop and 80.1 million acres for the 1938 crop 1/. In 1947, as in other years of high seedings, good crop rotations, including summer fallow, have been sacrificed in many areas, and in some instances sod lands that' are best suited for grass have been broken. Under normal peacetime conditions, it would be desirable to seed a much smaller acreage to wheat. !: AUGUST 1947 g i: I' Exports in 1913-49 Expected to Continue Large; Long-time Out]3ook for o-derately Large exports Large scale exports began in late 1914. Subsequently, there has been a demand! for more wheat th,.n was available for export in all surplus producing countries. About 56 percent of our exports in 1946-47 went to paying countries. UNRRA took 14 percent and civilians in occupied areas received 30 percent (table 4). Following the end of the active period of UNRRA operations on May 31, the tak of supplying minimum requirements to deficit nations was largely assumed by the United States Foreign Relief Program administered by the State Department. The r'ar Department has been granted funds to continue to supply wheat and flour to occupied areas. The demand by paying countries continues heavy. All in all, the demand for United States exports in 1947-48 will be substantially greater than supplies available for export. Since the end of the war, exports of wheat and flour from the United States have been very large in relation to exports from the three other principal exporting countries--Canada, Argentina, and Australia. This was made possible by record crops in the United States at a time when production in Argentina and Australia vas below average. Under more normal growing conditions, yields per acre would be smaller in the United States and larger in Argentina and Australia and the proportion of Unitid States exports would be sharply smaller. It is very likely that the demand for very large exports from the United States will extend at least through 1948-49. This demand will be basbd on a moderate recovery in production in many importing countries, including those producing rice. Other factors in this dema:-d v:ill be -aced on the necessity of (1) increasing stocks to reasonab! a working levels; (2 ) increasing bread rations from their present very low levels; and (U) continuin,- exports of vhoat to deficit rice-consuming areas. Assuninr 7b million seeded acres and yields at 14.3 bushels, the 265 million bushels available for export and increase in carry-over would again fall short of meeting the der-and. .'iuch of this quantity vould be used for civilian relief in military zcinls, leaving only a small amount for export to former UIRRA and other couni.:'-0 (. b1le -) Of coisrse, if crops in importing countries are good and other exp-'.rt iun'r. s have very large supplies available for export, it is conceivable that P. t~ surplus over domestic needs from another tremendous crop would not be needed :i E.:-.p ts. in that case, it would be possible to restore at least a part of our ca r' .o';:r position by the end of 1948-49. After the urgency of the current situation is passed exports will decline, Even so. it it very likely that we will still have a substantial level of exports for some years to come. Heat purchase by many European coOntries will gradually fall off, as the level of production is restored. However, the financial and political role played by the United States in international affairs will continue to be very important. In the Orient, food requirements are bigger because there has been a great increase in the population in the past decade. 4"WS-102 9 - Unless the 1948 Crop is again Tremendous Prices Are Likely to be above the Loan Level In spite of the largest wheat crop in our history, growers' wheat prices are currently above the average of $1.91 for 1946-47, the highest since the 1919 average of $2.16 (figures 1 and 2). The high prices reflect the very large foreign demand as well as above-average domestic demand. If the crop is only about 1,070 million bushels and less than 300 million bushels are available for export, it is likely that prices in 1948 will continue above support levels. Whether they would decline to or below support levels with a very large crop would depend upon export demand. Before postwar exports raised prices above the support level, they usually fell below the loan level following harvest, but advanced above it later in the season (table 5). The Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1938, as amended by the Stabilization Act approved October 2, 1942, which provides price-support loans to cooperating farmers at 90 percent of the mid-June parity 4/, will end December 31, 1948. The closing date for placing wheat under loan customarily has been December 31. However, the price supporting effect of these loans usually continues until pros- pects for the new crop dominate the market about late May. The law which provides for loans of 52 to 75 percent of parity will still be in effect after December 31, 1948. THE CURRENT DOMESTIC WHEAT SITUATION BACKGROUND.- Record wheat crops were produced in the United States in each of the last three years. Because of unusually large world demand for bread grains, however, it was possible to move the sur- plus over domestic requirements and reduce the carry-over to very low levels. In 1932-41, the supply of wheat in continental United States averaged 982 million bushels consisting of carry-over old wheat, 235; production, 738; and imports for domestic use, 9. The total disappearance averaged 721, consisting of food, 475; feed, 122; seed, 81; and exports and shipments 43. Wheat prices have advanced since 1940. Until 1943-44, the loan program was the most important factor in domestic wheat prices. Beginning in that year, however, the extra demand for wheat resulting from the war became the important price factor. Exports Likely to Equal 1946-47; Quantity Depends upon Corn Crop and Wheat Prospects On August 1, wheat production was estimated at 1,428 million bushels, only slightly below the 1,436 million indicated a month earlier, and still a record. Even though July 1 old-crop stocks were only 83 million bushels, the total supplies of 1,510 million are exceeded only by the 1,600 million bushels in both 1942 and 1943. In 1942, the carry-in was an all time high of 631 million bushels, and in 1943-44 imports amounted to 136 million bushels. 4/ If parity in mid-June 1948 should be the same as the parity of $ 2.08 per bushel Tn mid-August 1947, the average rate to growers for the 194 crop at 90 percent would be $1.87 per bushel. This compares with$1.83 for 1947. Parity is determined jy multiplying the base price of 88.4 cents per bushel (average of 60 months from August 1909 to July 1914) by the index of prices paid, interest and taxes (1910-14= 100), which in mi-August 1947 was 235 percent. AUGUST 1947 Because the corn crop is small, about 325 million bushels of wheat may be fed to livestock in 1947-48. This is above the 187million bushels fed last year and the 1932-41 average of 122 millions but below the record of 488 millions in 1943-44. If 325 million bushels are fed and the corn crop is about as estimated in mid-August, the grain and byproduct feed per animal. unit would about equal the 1937-41 average but would be below the level of recent years when animals were fed to heavy weights. Other domestic uses will include about 510 million bushels for food, 87millicn for seed and 5 million for industry. Total domestic disappearance for the coming marketing year would be about 925 million bushels. Since the total supply is 1,500 million bushels, about 575 million bushels would be available for export and for carry-over July 1, 1948. In order to provide a reserve of 175 million bushels for contingencies and carry-over, it would be necessary to limit exports to not more than 400 million bushels, or about the same amount as was exported in 194C-47. The carry-over last July-was permitted to dror to low levels, because of the un- usually large prospective 1947 crop. If 1948 crop prospects are again unusually favorable,.exports may be increased above 400 million bushels. About 190 million bushels of wheat (including flour) of the 400 million- bushel objective have been allocated or committed for export in July-October. It is estimated that all of the commitments have b en rprccurred by the Production and Marketing Administration and commercial handlers t,: dnte, and actual lifting 2or export are running well in advance of the monthly, allocations. Fully one-fourth of the September program had been cleared in August, In addition, the Production and Marketing Administration has procurred enough wheat and flour for application on the November program to rake a total export procurement of 200 million bushels. ZTheat Prices Influenced by High Corn Prices The price of wheat at Kansas City declined seasonally from late May to July 7, when it was within 8 cents of the loan level, and then turned upward. On July 29, it had declined again to within 11 cents of the loan. Since that time the price has advanced and on August 30, the price of NI. 2 Hard Winter was "2.46, 44 cents above the loan. On that same date the price of No. 1 Dark Northern Spring at Minneapolis at $2.53 was 48 cents above the loan. Wheat prices would be nearer the loan level if corn prices were not as hig?. For the month of August the price of No. 2 Hard Winter Wheat at Chicago averaged only a cent abovee the price of Io. 2 Yellow Corn at the same market and part of the time the rrice of corn was above that of wheat. Some strength to wheat prices has also resulted from the general deterio- ration to the Canadian crop during July. However, this may be offset to some ex- tent by the possibility of sizeable exports from Pius3ia and by prospects of a considerably larger crop than in recent years in Australia. THE CURRENT -.'CPILD WHEAT SI TUATI''II BACKGR:1UlJD.- On July 1, 1943, stocks in the four principal exporting countries were at a record of 1,740 milli-on bushels. B:, July 1945, however, they had been reduced to 824 million bushels, and by July 1946, to about 387 million. Greatly increased disappearance was caused by an accumulated demand brought on by the war and by poor crops in Southern Hemisphere countries and elsewhere. - 10 - Import Heeds Again Exceed Available Exrortable Suppies Foreign demand in 1947-48 will again exceed supplies available for export in surplus producing countries. Not only are bread grain crop prospects poor in many importing countries, stocks and bread rations are at very low levels. Pros- pects for large wheat exports from the United States are favorable, but exports of other grains for food will be much below last year. Canadian prospects deterio- rated generally in July as the result of high temperatures and insufficient moisture The crop is now estimated at only 359 million bushels, which compares with 421 mil- lion last year and 371 million, the 1936-45 average. In early August, however, the weather turned cooler and beneficial rains were received. Growing conditions for the December harvest in the Southern Hemisphere are generally favorable, particularly in Australia. The acreage in Australia may be up about 25 percent, but the first official estimate of acreage seeded in Argentina indicates a reduction of about 13 percent from 1946. Even though conditions in the Ukraine deteriorated somewhat because of dry weather in May, grain production in the Spviet Union has been fairly good and sizeable exports are possible. Information received during the past month tends to confirm estimates that wheat production in Europe, excluding Soviet Russia, may be 10 percent or more below the 1946 harvest of 1,350 million bushels and substantially below the pre-war average of 1,670 million bushels. Estimates by individual countries will be re- leased in FOREIGN CROPS AND MARKETS on September 15 and included in the next issue of THE WIEAT SITUATION. Conditions in Europe have varied widely. Prospects are poorest for Western Europe, where the generally hot, dry summer prevented much recovery from the damage caused by an unusually severe winter. This area includes several countries to which the United States exported substantial quantities of grain during the past year. Preliminary estimates of the crop in several of these countries are con- flicting. In France, for example, many observers believe that the crop may be 40 percent below last year's harvest of about 250 million bushels. The crop was placed at an even lower figure by the official estimate as of July 1. The severity of the damage is indicated by a recent reduction of 20 percent in the already low daily bread ration. Conditions are similar in the Low Countries. While the re- duction from a year ago is less severe in Italy, indications are that the Italian crop will be significantly lower than the 1946 harvest of about 245 million bushels Not much change from the 1946 total is expected in Central Europe, where relatively unfavorable conditions in Germany are offset by improvement in other areas. In the important Balkan area, some reduction in outturn from last year is expected, largely because of early season drought in parts of Greece, Bulgaria, and Rumania. The outlook in the Scandinavian countries is definitely less favorable than last year, largely as a result of winter damage in Denmark and Sweden. Re- ports for Norway indicate a crop only slightly below average. The crop in the United Kingdom is considered to be about 20 percent below the 69 million bushels in 1946. Total production in North Africa is expected to be about 10 percent less than the 1946 harvest of 117 million bushels. Outturns were best for French Morocco but production is indicated to be below a year ago in all areas. - 11 - WS-102 AUG'3'ST 1947 -12- The total crop in Asia is probably near the 1946 level, but prospects are not favorable in areas to which significant quantities of U. S. wheat were shipped in 1946-47. Production in China is expected to be above that of a year ago, but in Japan and Korea conditions have been unfavorable and the outturn may be as small or smaller than in 1946. The second official estimate of wheat production in India places the crop at 320 million bushels--the smallest since 1928--and considerable quantities of grain will need to be irmorted again this years Turkey's crop is also considerably smaller than a year ago when the record harvest of 180 million bushels provided some surplus for export. VLheat stocks in the 4 major exporting countries on July 1, 1947 were about 379 million bushels. Stocks in the United States were 83 million bushels, in Canada 115 million,in Argentina 125 million, and in Australia 56 million. The total is slightly smaller than the 387 million bushels last year, the smallest'since 1938, and about 17 percent below the 1935-39 average of 458 million bushels. World exports in 1946-47 totaled about 757 million bushels. This was consider ably above the 560 million-bushel prewar average, but was far less than importing countries wanted. Exports included: United States, 400 million bushels; Canada, 229 million; Argentina nearly 70 million; Australia 49 million; and other countries about 10 million. TIE OUTLOOK FOR RYE High Prices Likely to Increase Rye Grain Acreage A national rye goal of 2.3 million acres for harvest as grain in 1948 was announced July 31. This .is 18 percent above the 1.95 million acres for harvest in 1947, but only 62 percent of the 1937-41 average of 3.7 million acres. The acreago of rye for harvest in 1947 at 1.95 million acres fell short of the 2.4 million-acre goal. Because of very high prices in the iL:st 2 years, however, the slightly loaer goal may be reached. Until this year, the trend in rye acreage had been down7-.ard for a number of years, largely because of competition from other crops for avail-ble land (fig. 3, table 11). If yields equal the 1937-46 weighted average of 12 bushels per acre, 2.3 million acres would produce about 27-1/2 million bushels. On the basis of a crop of this size, food, and spirit use might be slightly above that in 1947-48 and sccd about the same. More rye probably would be used for feed because of the relatively poor prospects for the 1947 corn crop. VWhile some rye might be exported, the'total quantity would be small. If production is larger than 27-1/2 million bushels, or if imports increase the supply, more rye might be used for spirits or exports, or stocks might be increased to more normal levels. A production less than 27-1/2 million bushels would probably result in reduced use for human food or for livestock feed. The supply and distribution of rye for 1946-47 as well as other years since 1934 are shown in table 12. Because of the very small supplies in 1946-47, dis- appearance was the smallest in 21 years. Rye prices at Minneapolis for 1946-47 averaged '.2.55 (table 10), vahich is the highest in our history, exceeding the pre'vi- ous record of ^1.93 for 1917-18. RYE: ACREAGE, YIELD, PRODUCTION, FOREIGN TRADE, AND PRICE, 1900-1947 ACRES I MILLIONS) 6 4 2 0 BUSHELS 16 12 8 BUSHELS I MILLIONS) 75 50 25 0 BUSHELS (MILLIONS) 40 20 0n 1900 1905 . , SExports^ l FOREIGN TRADE S_ Imports_ 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 195 YEAR BEGINNING JULY I I I I 900-1907 DEC. PRICE U.S. DEPARTMENT OP AGRICULTURE DATA FOR 1947 ARE PRELIMINARY NEG. 40025 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIC* Figure 3.- Rye acreage harvested In 1917 totaled 1.95 million acres, and except for the past 2 years, was the smallest since 1934. Yield at 13.0 bushels was above the 1937.46 ave- rage of 12.1 bushels. With production in 1946 small--the smallest since 1875--an de- mand good, prices In 1946-47 advanced to an all-time high.' The acreage ow rye hat been djetfI ng steadllf for a number of years. Rye'y elds were quite stable until 1916, but have varied considerably since the expansion in the Great Plains, which began during World War 1. In contrast to 1918-24, when exports wei very large, Imports have been larger than exports In 10 of the past 14 years, ACRES MILLIONS) 6 4 2 0 BUSHELS 16 12 8 CENTS PER BUSHEL 150 100 50 0 BUSHELS (MILLIONS) 40 20 0 i0 Table 2.- V.heat: Supply and distribution in the United States, 1930-47 Year Supply Distribution begin-i Stocks : : : Domestic disappearance : Exports ning : July 1: N : Imports Total :Processed : industrial: : including July l/ : crop : 2_/ supply :for food 3/. Feed Seed : use : Total shipments 4/ : Mil. bu. Mil. bu. 7hl. bu. Mil. bu. Mil, bu. Mil.bu. Mil. bu. Mi bu Mil bu. Mil. buo 1930 : 1931 : 1932 1933 : 1934 : 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 : 1942 : 1943 1944 1945 1946 6/: 19476/ 291.1 312.5 375.3 377.8 272.9 145.9 140.4 1/ 83.2 153.1 250.0 279.7 384.7 630.8 618.9 316.6 279.2 100.1 83.4 886.5 941.5 756.3 552.2 526.1 628.2 629.9 873.9 919.9 741.2 814.6 942.0 969,4 843.8 1,060.1 1,108.2 1,155.7 1,427.7 0.4 0.1 15.5 34.6 34.5 0.6 0.3 0.3 3.5 3.7 1I0 136.0 42.0 2.0 ---. 1,178.0 1,254.0 1,131.6 930.1 814.5 808.7 804.8 957.7 1,073.3 991.5 1,097.8 1,330.4 1,601.2 1,598.7 1,418.7 1,389.4 1,255.8 1,511.1 489.6 482.8 492.4 448.4 459.1 472.6 477.9 474.6 481,4 475.4 478.5 487.8 537.0 543.1 542.5 496.1 498.3 (510.0) 179.7 190.3 143.0 102.6 113.5 100.9 115.1 132.5 156.8 115.1 123,1 116.5 291.5 487.9 281,0 299.1 186.6 (325,0) 80.9 80.0 83.5 77,8 82.6 87.6 96.6 94.1 75.5 72.9 74,3 62.3 65,0 77.5 80,7 82.0 8795 (87 0) i 5 --- 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.6 54.3 107.5 82.3 21.0 (0 (5.0) 750.2 753.1 718.9 628.8 655.3 661.2 689.7 701.2 713.8 663.5 676.0 668.2 947.8 1,216.0 986.5 898.2 772.4 (927,0) 115.3 125.6 34.9 28.4 13.3 7.1 12.3 103.4 109.5 48.3 37,1 31.4 34.5 66.1 153.0 391.1 400.0 (400.0) I/ 1930-36, inclusive, some new wheat included in commercial stocks and merchant mills stocks; beginning with 1937 only old crop wheat is shown in all stocks positions. The figure for Julyl, 1937 including the new wheat is 102.8 million bushels, which is used as year-end carry-over in the 1936-37 marketing year. 2 Imports include full-duty wheat for milling, wheat "unfit for human consumption" for animal feed, and dutiable flour in terms of wheat. Wheat imported for milling in bond is excluded. Included food for both civilian population and the military forces. 4/ Includes flour made only from domestic wheat and shipments to U. S. territories. Beginning with 1940 includes military exports for European relief and exports by the Department of Agriculture. 5/ Less than 50,000 bushels. .Table 3. heat and Flour Exports and shipments, quarterly and annually, in terms of wheat, 1941-47 S. Exports : Shipments t Period Period t Flourin terms Grand orop year Weat grain only Flof rinte Grain Flour : Grand with ep. by aOther 2 :ept. by Other 2/ ep't. by Wther '1 Rept. y Other 2/ Total quarters ensus Bur. Census Bur.: I Census Bur. s -Census Bur.. V S1,000 bu 1,00 bu. bu. 000 bu 1000 bu 1000 bu. 1,000 bu. 1,000 bu. 1941-42 JutPzI ...' 12,632 0 14,071 1,010 51 115 3,160 350 31,389 1942-43 r July--ept. ...' 1,342 0 3,872 265 1 70 869 1,152 7,571 Oct.-Deo. *..... 886 0 2,966 262 0 12 139 833 5,098 Jan.-Mar. .....' 1217 0 4,55. 625 1 68 57 984 7,707 Apr.-June ..... 3,110 0 8,353 625 0 50 91 1,905 14,134 JULY-JUNE 6... 6.555 0 19,946 1,777 2 200 1,156 a,874 54,510 - 2,754 0 3,820 2;000 0 45 54 775 9,448 o.-i .....: 4,759 0 6,538 7,200 0 34 43 595 19,169 Jan.--ar.......: 2,166 S;000 9,764 4,200 0 81 25 443 19,679 Apr.-June...... 2,263 3-638 8,208 2,500 0 30 56 1;064 17,759 J 4 51aAJ : 11,942 6,638 28,330 15.900 0 190 178 2,877 6,055 July-ept. .... 3,632 2,700 4,601 3,362 0 73 51 1,377 15,792- Oct.-Deo. ....., 1,968 8,959 6,064 15,831 0 48 35 693 35,598 Jan.-Mare .....r 4,738 11,050 8,356 8.026 0 84 62 1,279 33,595 Apr.-June ..... 8,672 34,344 9,176 16,612 0 52 69 1,051 69,976 JULY-JUNE ... 19,010 57,053 28,197 43,831 0 257 217 4,400 152,965 1945-46 1: July-Sept- .,.. 40,748 18,314 10,708 24,901 32 0 199 0 94,902 Oct.-Dec. ....,, 74,606 5,397 18,287 7,215 34 0 1,576 0 107,115 Jan.-Mar. ...... 67,693 7,587 25,915 3J135 47 0 861 0 105,238 Apr.-June .....1 43,215 13,550 24,966 508 4 0 1,242 0 83,485 JULY-JUNE ...r 226,262 44,848 79,876 35,759 117 0 3,878 0 390,741 1946-47 July-Sept. ...: 43;587 7,037 21,645 6,200 120 0 697 0 79,286 Oot.-Deo. .....: 32,659 19,037 28,994 4,785 12 0 1,298 0 86,785 Jan.-Uar. ...... 41,389 15,042 52,827 A/ 6,295 26 0 1,194 0 117,773 Apr.-June .....3 26,394/14,039 53,244 7/22,196 9 0 581 0 116,463 JULY-JUNE ...1 144,029 55,155 157,710 39,476 167 0 3,770 0 400,307 A Excludes flour milled in- bond from foreign wheat. _ Practically all military. SDoes not include quantities of wheat and flour exported to the United Kingdom Zone prior to February 1, 1947, nor does it include the following quantities exported to the U.S.-U.K. Zone in British boats: For February-Maroh 1,228,000 bushels of flour in terms of wheat; for April-June 3,307,000 bushels of flour in terms of wheat, and 1,358,000 bushels of wheat as grain; for March-June, quantities procured oommeroially by the British and exported to the U.S.-U.K. Zones. UOTUST 1947 - 16 - Table 4.- Exports of wheat and flour 1/, United States, 1945-46 and 1946-47 :1945-46 : 1946 1947- Item :Wheat and : : : : flour 1/ : Wheat Flour / Total : Mil. bu. Mil. bu. Mil. bu. Mil. bu. Military civilian relief 2/: 80.6 63.0 55.6 118.6 U.N.R.R.A. : 85.8 31.8 23.8 55.6 Foreign Governments, by U.S.D.A. 3/ : 137.1 91.0 4.5 95.5 Commercial exports : 83.7 11.9 114.8 126.7 Total : 387.2 197.7 198.7 /396.4 / Wheat equivalent. 2/ For 1946-47 includes US-UK Zones of Germany both before and after they became combined, the US Zones of the Pacific (Japan, Korea, and Ruy- kyus); U.S.-U.K. Zone in Italy, and exports to Austria by the military only. In- cludes the following under military and not under commercial; 10.6 million bushels flour in terms of wheat, which was exported to the U. K. Zone before December 31, 1946 and to the U. S. U. K. Zone of Germany March-June, and which was procurred commercially by the British. This item does not include quantities used by military forces. 3/ The U. S. Department of Agriculture also largely handled the exports for military zones and UNRRA. 4/ Does not include 4.0 million bushels of shipments to U. S. territories nor 12.7 million bushels of Canadian wheat milled in bond for export. 2/ Does not include 3.9 million bushels of shipments to U. S. territories nor 6.5 million bushels of Canadian wheat milled in bond for export. Table 5.- Wheat, No. 2'Hard Winter: Price, loan value, and ceiling at Kansas City, 1937-47 _(Data for figure 2) Year: Weighted cash price of No. 2 Hard Winter Vheat at Kansas City I/ :Loan beg-: :value in- : : : : : : : : at ning:July :Aug. :Sept.: Oct.: Nov.:Dec. :Jan. :Feb. :Mar. :Apr. :May :June :Kansas July: : City2, :Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents 1937: 22- I.rn 109o T106 9.2 9-35 102.7 99 91.5 8416 79.7 -- 1938: 70.0 65.5 65.7 64.7 63.3 66.9 70.9 69.2 68.7 69.6 75.7 70.9 72 1939: 66.7 64.6 85.9 82.7 85.8 98.3 101.2 99.4 102.1 105.7 94.7 76.3 77 1940: 70.7 69.3 75.8 81.6 84.5 83.0 84.7 77.8 85.1 87.2 90.4 97.3 77 1941: 98.3 106.6 114.1 112.2 113.4 120.1 125.6 123.1 121.0 114.6 114.9 110.9 .110 1942:107.9 111.2 120.3 120.5 123.1 130.5 136.8 137.0 139.9 138.4 138.1 137.0 .127 1943:140.1 139.8 145.8 152.3 156.4 162.8 164.8 163.0 165.2 164.0 163.2 155.6 137 1944:152.1 150.8 153.0 161.3 159.1 162.0 163.6 165.8 166.3 165.7 166.7 168.2 150 1945:158.3 159.8 162.1 168.3 168.9 169.2 169.2 169.1 172.0 172.1 --- 186.1 153 1946:197.8 193.8 196.0 203.9 210.4 207.2 209.0 226.1 269.4 267.6 269.3 237.3 202 1947:228.8 I/ Computed by weighting selling price by number of carlots sold as reported in the Kansas City Grain Market Review. In this price, wheat of above as well as be- low 13 percent protein is included. 2/ Loan rate is for wheat of less than 13 per- cent. Ceiling became effective January 4, 1944 at $1.62 including 1-1/2 cents commission, basis protein of less than 13 percent. On December 13, 1944 it was raised to $1.66, on May 30, 1945 to $1.691, on March 4, 1946 to 172.1, and on May 13, 1946 to 187.1. On June 30, 1946 ceilings expired. ~C WS-102 17 - Table 6. Average price per bushel of v heat received by farmers and,.parity price, United States 1931-47 I (Data for figure 1) SYear: : : : : : : : : : : rket- be- : : : : : : : : :ing gin-:July :Aug. :Sept.:Oct. :Novo : Dec.: Jan.: Feb.: Mar.: Apr.: May :June :year ning: 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : :aver- e July: :-e, _: : ___ ___ ____ : __ : age S:Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents eOnts' Cents Cents oenTs Cersens-- Averago j'rce 2. 1931: 3C., 35.4 '35.7 36.1 50.5 44.1 44.1 44.0 44.2 43.1 42;4 37.3 39.0 1932: 35.6 38.5 37.4 34.6 32.8 31.6 32.9 32.3 34.5 44.8 59.0 58.7 38.2 1933: 86.9 74.7 71.1 63.6 71.1 67.3 69.4 72,0 70.9 68.7 69.5 78.9 "74.4 1934: 78.8 89.6 92.2 88.5 88.1 90.6 89.3 87,9 85,5 90 2 87,8 77.3 84.8 1935: 76.4 80.8 85.1 94.8 87.5 88.9 92.0 91.1 89.3 85.4 81.6 79.9 83.2 1936: 94.1 104.8 104.3 106.8 106.4 114.5 123.6 124.9 123.2 126.6 118.3 108.9 102.5 1937:112.8 99.4 93.0 88.7 81.9 83.6 88.6 86.6 80.3 75.0 71.4 69.7 96.2 1938: 60.8 50.7 52.5 52.2 52,0 53.6 57.1 56.9 56,7 57.8 63.0 62.53/56.2 1939: 55.7 54.5 72.7 70.3 73.1 82.4 84.5 84.1 85.0 88.9 80.7 67.4 69.1 1940: 61.4 60.1 62.6 68.2 72.5 71.5 73.0 67.8 71.8 76.0 79.4 83.1 68.2 1941: 85.6 88.5 95.8 91.0 93.4 102.2 106.1 104.9 105.1 99.7 99.8 95.7 94.5 1942: 94.6 95.4 102.8 103.5 104.4 110.3 117.5 119.5 122.7 122.3 122.8 124.0 109.8 1943:126.0 127.0 130.0 135.0 137.0 143.0 146.0 146.0 146.0 147.0 147.0 143.0 136.0 1944:129.0'.135.0 135.0 142.0 143.0 145.0 146.0 147.0 148.0 149.0 149.0 150.0 141.0 1945:146.0 145.0 145.0 151.0 153.0 154.0 154.0 155.0 158.0 158.0 170.0 174.0 150.0 1946:187.0 178.0 179.0 188.0 189.0 192.0 191.0 199.0 244.0 240.0 239.0 218.0 191.0 Parity Price 47 1931:124.6 122.9 121.1 120.2 118.5 118.5 114.0 114.0 112.3 111.4 109.6 108.7 1932:108.7 108.7 107.8 107.0 106.1 105.2 100.8 100.8 99.9 100.8 100.8 101.7 1933:105.2 108.7 112.3 112.3 112.3 11206 109,6 111.4 112.3 112.3 113.2 113.2 1934:113.2 115.8 116.7 116.7 116.7 116.7 114.9 115.8 115.8 115.8 115.8 115.8 1935:114.9 114.0 113.2 113.2 112.3 112.3 111.4 111.4 110.5 110.5 110.5 109.6 1936:112,3 114o9 114.9 114.9 114,9 115.8 116.7 118.5 118.5 120.2 120;2 120.2 1937:119.3 118.5 116.7 115.8 114.9 114.0 114.0 114.0 113.2 113.2 113.2 112.3 1938:111.4 110.5 109.6 109.6 109.6 109.6 108.7 108.7 108.7 108.7 108.7 108.7 1939:108.7 107.8 110.5 110.5 110.5 110.5 110.5 110.5 111.4 111.4 111.4 111.4 1940:110.5 110'5 110.5 130.5 110.5 111.4 110.5 110.5 111.4 111.4 112.3 114.9 1941:115o8 118,5 121,1 122,9 124.6 125.5 127.3 129.1 130.8 131.7 132.6 132.6 1942:133.5 133.5 134.4 135.3 136.1 137.0 137.9 139.7 140.6 141.4 143.2 144.1 1943:145.0 145,0 145.0 146.0 147.0 148.0 149.0 149.0 149.0 149.0 149.0 150.0 1944:150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 151.0 151.0 152.0 152.0 153.0 153.0 153.0 153.0 1945:153.0 153.0 154.0 155.0 155.0 156.0 156.0 158.0 159.0 160.0 164.0 166.0 1946:176.0 180.0 177.0 183.0 187.0 188.0 190.0 195.0 201.0 tC7.0 202.0 203.0 1/ Data for earlier years in The Vh~eat Situation as follos: 1909-'21 November 1941, pages 12 and 13; 1922-30, August 1945, pages 20-21. 2/ monthlyy prices by States weighted by production to obtain a price for the United States; average for year obtained by weighting State price averages for the marketing year. / Beginning 1938 includes unredeemed loans at average loan value. 4/ Computation of parity price: Average price in base period ( August 1909 to July 1914) x monthly index of prices paid by farmers, interest and taxes. Example for March 1947 a 88.4 x 2.35 = 2.08 AUGUST 1947 18 - Table 7.- Wheat: Weighted average cash price: specified markets and dates, 1946 and 1947 (Data for figure 2) :All classes : No. 2 : No. 1 Dk. : No. 2 Hard : No. 2 : Soft Month :and grades :Bard winter: N. Spring :Amber Durum :Red Winter: White and -six markets :Kansas City:Minneapdlla :Minneapolis :St. Louis :Portland 1/ date :1946 : 1947 :194&6 : 1947:1946: 1947 : 1946 : 194771946: 47 197:9: 19 7 :Cents Cents Cents Cents CentbCnts Cents Cents CentsCents Cents Cents Months: : SJuly :.202.6 240.0 197.8 228.8 222.4 293.5 230.0 242.9 211.1 236.8 183.2 215.7 Week 207.1 207.1 204.8 197.0 196.3 196.7 200.5 198.6 247.7 241.8 240.7 240.4 236.0 239.0 243.4 250.8 205.1 -14.8 202.4 220.9 199.4 231.1 193.2 232.2 193.7 226.5 193.1 229.6 194.5 229.1 193.5 234.1 217.0 223.3 235.1 223.8 208.1 205.4 207,4 204.8 285.6 290.0 295.3 300.7 297.9 290.0 280.7 269.7 230.0 220.7 223.0 23514 245.6 247.0 245.3 239.4 245.0 248.1 255.0 212.4 215.2 211.3 203.4 201.1 200.8 203.4 207.0 ,--- 233.9 237.7 238.5 231.7 236.7 237.3 244.2 182.2 183.2 183.1 183.9 184.5 182.6 181.5 182.1 207.8 215.1 217.6 218.6 216.3 220.4 221.8 225.1 / Average of daily cash quotations. 2/ Beginning July 9, 1947 sales of hard and dark hard winter combined. Table 8.- Wheat: Average closing price of September futures, specified markets and dates, 1947 l/ Period : Chicago Cents Months: May 221.4 June : 215.6 July : 229.1 Kansas : Minne- City apolis Cents Cents 215.1 208.5 220.1 222.5 213.7 230..7 S: Kansas Period : Chicago City : Week Ended: : Aug. 2 9 16 23 Cents Cents 229.4 234.6 236.5 244.0 220.6 225.0 226.4 232.8 I1 Comparable figures for 1946 are not available as a result of action taken by the various grain exchanges, following grain ceiling increases May 13, which are summarized in The Wheat Situation, July 1947 page 13. ended July 5: 12: 19: 26: Aug. 2: 9: 16: 23: Minne- * -i i- apoli- Cents 232.0 236.0 236.7 241.8 1 @ 6 WS-102 19 - Table 9. Wheat: Prices per bushel in three exporting countries, Friday nearest midmonth, January-AutuSt 1947, and weekly July-August 1947 H; ARD WHEAT :HAR WHEAT SOFT WHEAT Date United States :, Canada : United States:United Sate Astker aa (Friday) .No. 1 H.D.N. Sp.:No. 3 Canadian: :No. 1 D.H.W. : No. : 13 pCt. protein :No Spg at j ort Galveston !/:Portland 1/: Friday midmonth : Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Jan. 17 .........: Feb. 14 ......... : Mar. 14 ......... : Apr. 18 .........: May 16 ......... : rJune 13 ......... : rJuly 18 .........: lAug. 15 ......... : , Weekly fJuly 3..........: 11..........: 25..........: Aug. 1 .........: 8 .........: 22 .........: 29 .........: 221 227 280 274 268 263 284 257 295 295 295 290 282 260 265 223 239 292 284 276 251 249 254 235 257 254 251 255 261 270 223 244 301 284 277 223.5 241 242.8 224.5 242.5 240 237.5 244.2 249.2 259.2 188.5 200 233 237 238 233 216 222.5 208 220.5 217 218 221 " 225.5 230 219.4 227.2 235.5 259.4 -- 259. 1/ F.O.B. spot or to arrive. I2 Fort William quotation is in store. No. 1 Heavy Dark Northern Spring, 13 percent protein, (Duluth) plus 1/2 cent (for in-store basis is assumed to be fairly comparable with No. 3 Canadian Northern Spring wheat (Fort William in store.) Table 10. Rye, No. 2: Weighted average price per bushel of reported cash sales, Minneapolis, by months, 1940-47 i/ ear: : . begin-: ning :July July : :Cents 1940 :--39 1941 : 54.9 1942 : 60.6 1943 :101.2 1944 :113.0 1945 :152,8 1946 :239.0 1947 :254.1 : : .Wtd Aug. Sept.:Oct. Nov. Dec., Jan.: Feb. Mar. Apr.: May June A S: b : v. : .. : ....: - Cents Cents -43.6 47.9B 67.8 60.0 64.6 59.1 101.4 D8.5 103.1114.8 151.3 164.3 223.5239.2 Cents 50.2 64.1 59.3 11.0 113.1 L83.9 267.6 SCents 50.0 67.8 70.3 120.2 114.3 175.2 279.3 Cents 52.6 80.3 74.7 127.0 122.8 198.4 285.7 Cents Cents Cents 50.2 52.4 56.5 78.1 75.5 71.8 79.2 82.9 80.9 122.5123.5 127.1 123.5127.2 133.9 212.9235.9 269.8 310.83539 310.8 Cents Cents Cents 69.3 60.3 65.1 87.2 94.1 73.4 119.4112.1 108.1 139.2155.3 122.2 284.2 --- 171.8 319.2302.9.255.2 Cents 61.7 58.8 95.4 112.1 144.2 195.2 Compiled from Minneapolis Daily Market Record. Average of daily prices weighted by carlot sales. i/ Data for earlier years in The Wheat Situation as follows: 1915-32, June 1937, page 16, 1933-39, March-April 1945, page 18 AUGUST 1947 - 20 - Table 11.- Rye: Acreage, yield, production, foreign trade, and price, Year : Acreage beginning: harvested :0July00 :1,000 acres 1901 1902 : 1903 : 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 : 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 : 1914 1915 1916 : 1917 1918 919 : 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 : 1928 1929 1930 1931 : 1932 .1933 1934 1935 1936 : 1937 1938 : 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943. 1944 1945 1946 :/ 1947 4/ 2,409 2,444 2,260 2,205 2,297 2,154 2,073 2,130 2,212 2,262 2,452 2,724 3,089 3,144 3,417 3,528 5,059 6,694 7,168 4,825 4,851 6,757 4,936 3,941 3,800 3,419 3,458 3,310 3,138 3,646 3,159 3,350 2,405 1,921 4,066 2,694 3,825 4,087 3,822 3,204 3,573 3,792 2,652 2;132 1,856 1,598 1.953 / From reports of Department of 2/ December 1 price, 1900-1907. average loan value. 4/ Prelimine * * : , Yield :per acre Bushels 12.8 13.9 12.8 12.9 13.6 13.7 13.6 13.5 13.6 12.9 12.8 13.9 13.1 13.4 13.7 12.2 11.9 12.5 11.0 12.8 12.6 14.9 11.3 14.8 11.1 10.2 14.8 11.5 11.3 12.4 10.4 11.7 8.6 S8.5 14.0 9.0- ,12.8 .13.7 10.1 12.4. 12.3- 14.0 10.8 10.6 12.9 11.7 13.0 '-"" 1 United States, 1901-47 (Data for figure 3) _ SExports Imports : Price Production : -/ :received bi :- : :farmers 2/ 1,000 bushels 1,000 bushels 1,00bushels Cbnta p bu. 30,773 2,712 --- 55.7 33,862 5,445 1 50.8 28,932 784 34 54.5 28,461 30 21 68.8 31,173 1,388 1 61.1 29,609 770 1 '58.9' 28,247 2,445 2 2/73.1 28,650 1,296 1 /74,5 30,083 242 30 74.6 29,098 40 227 73.4 31,396 31 134 '81.0 37,911 1,855 1 68.7 40,390 2,273 37 62,9 42,120 13,027 147 83.3 46,752 15,250 566 "85.0 43,089 13,703 428 113.0 60,321 17,186 834 176.4 83,421 36,467 638 152.1 78,659 41,531 1,077 145.9 61,915 47,337 452 146.4 61,023 29,944 700 84.0 100,986 51,663 99 63.9 55,961 19,902 2 59.3. 58,445 50,242 1 95.2 42,316 12,647 -- 79.1 34,860 21,698 1 83.0 51,076 26,346 2 83.5 37,910 9,844 1 83.6 35,411 2,600 1 85.7 45,383 227 88 44.4 32,777 909 1 34.1 39,099 311 14 28.1 20,573 21 12,019 62.8 16,285 --- 12,250 72.0 56,938 9 2,266 39.8 24,239 248 3,943 81.2 48,862 6,578 --- 68.6 55,984 784 1 33.8 38,562 732 --- 43.9 39,725 245 1,392 1/41.9 43,878 23 8,758 53.9 52,929 450 1,490 59.8 28,680 594 8,314 98.1 22,525 3,144 4,149 109.0 23,952 7,196 1,996 135.0 18,685 574 1,641 192.0 25405 _ Commerce of the United States. Includes flour. 3/ Beginning 1940 includes unredeemed loans at ary. - 21 - Table 12. Rye: Supply and distribution, United States, 1934-47 Year :_ Suppl : D istrJiution :.. Total begin-:tocks Produc- : Food : Feed : :Alcohol: : ort:disap- ning : / ion :ImportseTotal : eed :-spir- :Total 4 :pear- July : =: : its: : ance :Mil.bu.Mil. bu. Mil.bu.Mil.bu.Mil.bu.Mil.Bu.Mil'.iuMil .bu. Mil.bu.Mil.bu.Mil. 16.3 56.9 24.2 48.9 56.0 38.6 39.7 43.9 52.9 28.7 22.5 24.0 18.7 25.4 11.2 2.3 3.9 2/ 2/ 1.4 8.8 1.5 8.3 4.1 2.0 1.5 (1.2) 42.4 70.0 47.8 54.1 64.5 60.5 60.7 71.4 83.5 84.1 57.6 38.2 22.5 (28.9) 8.0 6.9 7.0 5.9 6.8 7.0 7.1 7.8 8.3 8.7 7.8 6.7 5.5 4.8 21.9 13.8 18.0 19.8 20.2 19.9 19.2 26.5 33.2 18.4 9.2 5.2 8.6 8.7 10.0 9.1 9.7 7.4 8.1 8.5 7.5 6.1 5.8 4.5 4.7 10.2 12.8 11.6 6.0 5.5 5.6 6.7 6.8 2.1 4.5 10.3 8.3 4.2 31.6 50.3 42.4 39.0 41.8 40.2 41.8 42.3 44.4 52.5 42.3 28.7 19.6 0.2 6.6 0.8 0.7 0.2 2/ 0.5 0.6 3.1 7.2 0.6 31.6 50.3 42.6 45.6 42.6 40.9 42.0 42.3 44.9 53.1 45.4 35.9 20.2 .1 1934-42, farm and commercial stocks only. Beginning in 1943, the figures also include interior mill and elevator stocks. 2/ Estimates based on trade information related to the Census of 1939. 3/ Residual item. 4/ Includes flour. 2/ Less than 50,000 bushels. 6/ Preliminary. WHERE TO FIND STATISTICS ON THE WHEAT SITUATION NOT INCLUDED IN THIS ISSUE: _/ THE DOMESTIC WHEAT SITUATION Supply and distribution Total wheat, 1909-46 .............................. Total wheat, by quarters, 1942-47 ................ Durum, 1940-45 .................... .......... ..... nurumn. 1941-46 ... ............................... Stocks By position on July 1, 1941-47 .................... Acreage, yield, production, and farm disposition Acreage, yield, and production, by types, 1940-45 .. Acreage, seeded by regions, 1919-46 ................ Production by areas, 1'00-1945 ..................... Acreage and percentage of various classes .......... Production and farm disposition, 1909-45 ........... Exports and imports Exports of wheat including flour to specified countries, 1910-39 ............... .... ..... Exports from U. S. by destination, 1937-38, 1938-39 Imports into the United States, 1923-44 ........... Destination of U. S. exports by countries, 1945-46, 1946-47 .......................................... Sales, and income, and prices Sales, price, and cash income, U.S., 1910-45 ...... Percentage monthly sales, average 1934-43, and annual 1934-45 .................................. 1/ Selected tables used most frequently Page Issue May July July Aug. 1947 1947 1945 1946 WS-100 WS-101 ws- 89 ws- 96 9 July 1947 WS-101 July Sept. May Mar. June Aug. Jan. Sept. July Apr. Nov. 1947 WS-101 1946 WS- 97 1945 WS- 88 1943 WS- 73 1946 WS- 95 1940 1945 1945 WS- 46 ws- 86 WS- 91 1947 WS-101 1946 WS- 94 1946 WS- 98 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 : 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 : 1945 : 1946 1947 : 14.9 10.8 19.7 5.2 8.5 21.9 19.6 18.7 29.1 47.1 31.0 12.2 2.3 2.3 U. S. Department of Agriculture Washington 25, D. C. Penalty for private use to avoid payment of postage $300 OFFICIAL BUSINESS BAE-WS-9/47-4400 PERMIT NO. 1001 UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 311 I 1111111111111 1 11108862 3 1262 08862 6535 xiI2. * .3 :"'. a Tr?"ARy ", ;::;" m L FLA WHERE TO FIND STATISTICS NOT INCLUDED IN THIS ISSUE (continued) THE WORLD WHEAT SITUATION Supply and distribution World, 1922-40 ....................................... 15 Canada, Argentina, Australia, averages 1929-33 and 1934-38, annual 1941-46 ........................ 13 By countries 1946 production, 1934-38 production, trade and domestic use, and 1938-39 exports from U. S. and other countries .................................... 8 Stocks July 1, Average 1935-39, annual 1940-46 ............... 26 Acreage and production Acreage, yield, and production, world-, excluding the U.S.S.R. and China, average 1935-39, annual 1944-46 14 Acreage, yield, and production, Canada, 1909-45. 15 Acreage, of wheat, world and specified countries, 1909-40 ........ ... ............... .... ... .... ..* 17 Production of wheat, world.and specified countries, 1909-40 ................................... 10 Acreage, yield and production, average 1935-39, annual 1944-46 .....................; .- ..... ..... .. .. 14 International trade International trade in wheat Including flour, calendar years, 1937-40.......................... 20 International trade in wheat flour, calendar years, 1938-40 ..................................... 21 International trade in wheat including flour,.. July year, averages 1925-34, annual 1937-39 ....... 16 Relative importance of wheat importing countries, 1934-38 ....................... ..... ............. 8 Relative importance ofW'heat exporting countries, 1934-38 ........... .. ......... ......... ........ .. .9 Net exports wheat and flour, 4 princ.exporting countries 1922-1946 ................. ... *,.. .... ................ 14 Mar. 1941 WS- 53 Feb. 1947 WS- 99 May 1947 WS-100 Aug. 1946 WS- 96 Sept. 1946 WS- 97 July 1945 WS- 89 June 1941 WS- 56 SNov. 1945 WS- 92 Sept. 1946 WS- 97 Mar. 1942 WS-'65 Mar. 1942 WS- 65 Feb. 1941 WS- 52 Jan. 1945 WS- 86 Jan. 1945 WS- 86 Feb. 1947 WS- 99 C 1 : _..- I I |
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