Wheat situation

THE


1948 OUTLOOK ISSUE
FOR RELEASE SEPT.11, A.M.


--1---- SITUATION

BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

WS 102 (Pr AUGUST 1947


ALL WHEAT AND WINTER WHEAT: ACREAGE,YIELD
AND PRODUCTION, UNITED STATES, 1919-47


ACRES
(MILLIONS)


60


40

BUSHELS


16


12


8
BUSHELS
(MILLIONS)

1,400


1,200


1,000


800


600


400


*SEEDED PRECEDING FALL


U. S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


I

I -




i "p -7 -

1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 194
DATA FOR 1946 AND 1947 ARE PRELIMINARY


NEG 42549 BUREAU OF A-RICULTURAL ECONOMICS


Seedings of .all wheat for the 1947 crop, at 77.1 million bushels, including vol-
unteer wheat, was 8 percent above the 1946 average and 16 percent above the 1936-45
average of 66.5 million acres. With production indicated as of August I at 1,428 mil-
lion bushels, the 1947 wheat crop again set a new high record. Because of its import-
ance in the total crop changes in winter wheat are similar to those for all wheat. The
national acreage goal for 1948 totals 75 million acres, the same as the high 1947 acre-
age, exclusive of volunteer wheat.








AUGUST 1947 2 -
Table 1.- Estimated supply and distribution of wheat, by classes,
continental United States, 1941-47 /

: Year beginning July
S191 : 1942 : 1943 : 1944 : 1945 : 1946 : 1947 g
*.* t *fl 1...fl ~ i.. fl41 ..`


: m1. D.
All wheat
Stocks, July 1 ...: 385
Production .......: 942
Imports ..........: 4
Supply .........: 1331
Exports 3 .......: 31
Carry-over .......: 631
Domestic disap- :
pearance ......: 669
Hard red winter
Stocks, July 1 ...: 160
Production .......: 396
.u.pP ......... : 556
Exports ..........: 20
Carry-over .......: 291
Domestic disap-
pearance ......: 245
Soft red winter
Stocks, July 1 ...: 40
-Production ....... 204
Supply .........: 244
Exports ..........: 2
Carry-over ....... 54
Domestic disap- :
pearance ......: 188
Hard red spring
Stocks, July 1 ... : 136
Production .......: 202
TmTt-r 4


Supply .....
Exports ......
Carry-over ...
Domestic disa
pearance ..
Durum.
Stocks, July 1
Production ...
Imports ......
Supply ....
Exports ......
Carry-over ...
Domestic dis


631
969
1


01 ,s


34
61 0


948 1217 986 898 773


291
486

717
317


619
844
1I6


1 99


66
31A


316
1060
42


Il lk


153
P70


100
1156
0


125IPh


400
8


61 581 630 619 789


439 534 360 357 313

54 29 18 19 11 9
149 125 204 213 197 242
203 154 222 232 208 251
1 2 10 65 27
29 18 19 11 9

173 134 193 156 172


.. 42 413 567 425 335 253 277
....: 2 2 14 24 53 39
206 205 150 112 39 30
ap- :
... 134 206 403 289 243 184

...: 25 34 27 14 8 5 9
... 41 42 34 30 33 36 46
0 0 1 3 0 0 0
66 76 62 47 41 41 55
.... 0 1 1 2 1 1
....: 7 14 8 5 9


pearance ......: 32


47 37


White
Stocks, July 1 ...: 24 46 41 21 31 8 8
Production ....... 86 94 122 120 127 131
Supply .........: 123 132 135 143 151 13 139-
Erports ...........--- 7 9 15- 5 36 54
Carry-over .......: 46 41 21 31 8 8
Domestic disap- :
pearance ......: 70 82 107 107 73

y1 -194 in the w Br SSM madeVT I hs4 page .
/ Subject to revision. 3/ hio e made from U. S. wheat also includes shipments to U. S. territories.


ap- :


a E11.....Ja,. BL... b.S. ELL.&L 6


1- -- 1 4


11 AM I




-102 3 -

!.'* - - -
THE W HEAT SIT U A T N
-,


Approved by the Outlook and Situation Soard, September 3, 1947

S SUMMARY OF TiE OUTLOOK FOR WVEAT AI RYE

S Demand for very large exports of United.States wheat is very likely to
continue through 1948-49. The quantity of wheat the United States has to export,
.,however, will not be sufficient to meet demands unless yields are again unusually
large.

Because of current high prices, growers will seed fully as many acres in
wheat for the 1948 crop as for the 1947 crop and the acreage goal announced on
July 31 will be reached.

The goal calls for 75 million acres, about the acreage seeded for the 1947
crop excluding volunteer acreage which was harvested. Although it calls for all-
out production, the goal provides that the acreage planted should be consistent
'with good farming -ractices. State workers have been asked to review the goals
for their particular States from tne standpoint of moisture conditions, need for
oilbearing and other crops and for summer fallow requirements.

It is imTossibie to make an accurate forecast of wheat yields for next year.
By making certain assumption in this regard, however, it is possible to throw some
'light on the export situation and its effect on price.

If yields equal the 1937-46 average of 14.3 bushels per seeded acre, 75 mil-
lion acres would produce 1,070 bushels. Assuming about 800 million bushels are
used domestically, about 270 million bushels would be available for export or addi-
.tion to carry-over. A crop of this size would not provide enough wheat for export
to meet expected demands.

The picture oaan cs if it is assumed that yields will be 16.3 bushels per
acre, the average for 1942-48 when the weather was unusually favorable. Such a
yield on 75 million' acres would result in a crop of 1,220 million bushels. If
such a crop were obtained, more wheat might be used for feed, and domestic uses
might total about 850 million bushels. This "rould leave about 370 million bushels
for export and increase in carry-over. This would probably be enough to meet ex-
port demands and provide for some increase in II. S. stocks if conditions abroad
improve sufficiently.

If a crop of only about 1,070 million bushels is produced, it is likely
that prices in 1948-49 will continue above support levels. Whether they would de-
l:line to or below support levels with a very large crop would depend upon the size
:of the crop relative to the export demand. Before exports in the postwar period
:raised prices abo-:e surport levels, prices usually fell below the loan following
Sharpest, but advanced above it later in the season.

As a result of very high rye prices in the past two years, the 2.3 million-
:eare rye goal fot 1948 may be reached. This would be 18 percent above the acres
harvested in 1947, but only 62 percent of the 1937-41 average, Assuming an aver-
age yield of 12 bushels per acre, 2.3 million acres would produce about 27-1/2 mil-
lion bushels. On the basis of a crop of this size, food, feed, and alcohol-spirit
use might be slightly above that in 1947-48 and seed about the same. While scme
e might be expoSed, the total quantity would be srall. iWith very limited rye
a ye isappeara ce in 194t-47 vns the smallest in years and prices
a consieraaly te 1917-18 record.






SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT .WEAT SITUATION


On August 1 wheat production was estimated at 1,428 million bushels, only
slightly below the July estimate of 1,436 million and still the largest in our
history. Because the corn crop will be small, more wheat will be fed than last
year. The amount will depend on the outturn of the corn crop but may reach 325
million bushels. For this reason, domestic disappearance of wheat in the 1947-48
marketing year may total 925 million bushels. Since the supply is about 1,500
million bushels, about 575 million bushels would be left for export in 1947-48
and for carry-over July 1, 1948. In order to provide a reserve of 175 million
bushels for contingencies and carry-over, it would be necessary to limit exports ti
not more than 400 million bushels, or about the same amount as was exported in :
1946-47. The carry-over last July was permitted to drop to 83 million bushels,
because of the unusually large prospective 1947 crop.

About 190 million bushels of wheat (including flour) of the t0 mlllcnbushebl ob.
jective hae been allocated or committed for export in July-October. It is esti- '
mated that all of the commitments have been procurred by P.M.A. and commercial
handlers to date, and actual lifting for export are running well in advance of
the monthly allocations. Fully one-fourth of the September program had been
cleared in August. In addition, P.M.A. has procurred enough wheat and flour for
application on the November program to make a total export procurement of 200
million bushels.

Wheat prices are currently about 40 to 50 cents above loan levels. They would
be lower if corn prices were not so high. However, the influence of corn prices
on wheat prices will be reduced when new crop corn becomes available. Wheat prices
have also been strengthened by the general deterioration of the Canadian crop. On
the other hand, wheat prices tend to be weakened by the possibility of sizeable
exports from Russia and by prospects for a considerably larger crop in Australia
than in recent years.

Foreign demand will again exceed supplies available for export in surplus
producing countries. While prospects for large exports are favorable in the
United States, the crop in Canada is estimated at only 359 million bushels, com-
pared with 421 million last year and the 1936-45 average of 371 million. Grow-
ing conditions for the December harvest in the Southern Hemisphere are generally
favorable, particularly in Australia. The acreage in Australia may be up about 2|
percent from last year, but the first official estimate of the acreage seeded in
Argentina indicates a reduction of about 13 percent from 1946.

Information received during the past month tends to confirm the generalizatid
that wheat production in Europe, excluding Soviet Russia, may be 10 percent or moi
below the 1946 harvest and substantially below the prewar average. Prospects are'
poorest in Western Europe, which includes several countries to which the United
States exported substantial quantities of grain during the past year. The crop
Asia is probably near the 1946 level, but prospects are not favorable in areas
which received significant quantities of U. S. wheat in 1946-47.

Wheat stocks in the 4 major exporting countries -- United States, Canada,
Argentina, and Australia -- on July 1, 1947 were about 379 million bushels. This
is slightly smaller than the 387 million bushels last year, the smallest since. 19
and about 83 percent of the 1935-39 average of 458 million bushels.

(For release September 11, a. m.)


. :*
:
""I






WHEAT: PRICE RECEIVED BY FARMERS AND
PARITY PRICE. UNITED STATES. 1909-47
CENTS
PER
BUSHEL

250 ----- Actual price --


200 -



........ ...
.o.1 Parity price*
r I I. Base period. Aug 190ii July l914 i




150 :------------tf j--- -
100 -- -


50



1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945
YEAR BEGINNING JULY
*PARITY PRICE NOT AVAILABLE BY MONTHS. 1910-22


U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


NEG. 39712 IURiAU OF AGRICULIURAL ECONJIIICS


Figure I.

Wheat prices, except for August 1946, have been above parity since early May 1946.
Since 1920, prices received by farmers for wheat have risen above parity in 1924-25,
1925-26, 1936-37, in addition to the past year. In 1924, foreign demand for United
States wheat increased as a result of a very small crop in Canada. In 1925, the crop
in the United States was small, and in 1936 United States supplies were greatly reduced
following 4 years of short crops. In World War I, the world supply was small, compared
with demand, and prices in the United States rose considerably above parity. Since
1941, both the supply and demand were very large.






6


WHEAT. NO. 2 HARD WINTER: CASH PRICE, LOAN VALUE.
AND CEILING AT KANSAS CITY, 1937-47




I


1. -


CENTS
PER
BUSHEL

260



240



220



200



180



160


140



120



100



80


JULI JfAN JULY .IAN JULY JAN JULY JAN JUL JA14 JULY JAN JULY JAN ,JULV JAN JULY JAN JULY JAN JULY JAN JULY
1937-38 1998 39 1939-40 1940-41 1941-42 1942-43 1943-44 1944-45 1945-46 /1946-47 1947-48
MARKETING TEAR BEGINNING JULY
AVL'RAE CF ALL rEP'ORrEu, SALES A ORDIN.ARYi PhOTnrin


NEI. 41311 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


U 5 DEPARTMETIII OF AGRICULTURE


Figure 2.

In each marketing year from 1938 through 1942, the wheat price started below the
loan level and advanced substantially by spring. Largely as the result of a very large
non-food demand, the price In 1943-44 started above the loan level and by December ad-
vanced to about parity, where the calling was established. Since 1945, the price has
been held above the loan level by a very large export demand. In the chart above, the
cash price rises from the ceiling level because the cash price used Includes the pay-
ment of premiums for above-average protein. Although the ceiling prices permitted pay-
ment of these premiums, they are not reflected In the ceiling shown in the chart.


Neg. 43311




l .
e'C r


THE OUTLOOK F AT
THE OUTLOOK FOR WHEAT


I4'


:.Growers to Seed as Large
an Acreage as for the 947 Crop

S Growers will seed fully as much
in response to current high prices.
ubtedly will be reached. The goal
h 1947 acreage excluding volunteer


wheat for the 1948 crop as for the 1947 crop,
As a result, the acreage goal for 1948 un-
called for 75 million acres, the same as
wheat.


The national goal called for all-out production consistent with good farming
atices. State workers have been asked to review the goal for tneir particular
tate from the standpoint of moisture conditions, need for oilbearing and other
rops, and for summer fallow requirements. Farmers in dry-land areas were
cautioned against plowing up of sod lands not suited for farming over a period
f years. Relatively high wheat acreages were suggested for the Corn Be3t because
he lateness of this year's season may result in more land being available for
feeding to wheat this fall.

If 75 million acres are planted to wheat and yields equal the 1937-46 average
if 14.3 bushels per seeded acre, the 1948 crop would be 1,070 million bushels 2/.
Af yields equal the 16.3 bushels per acre 3/,the average of 1942-46 when weather
as very favorable, production would be about 1,220 million bushels. A crop of
,070 million bushels probably would be distributed about as follows, in million
ushels: Food 510, feed 200, seed 85, industrial 10, exports and increased in
carry-over 265. If a crop of 1,220 million bushels were produced, the quantity
used for feed might be increased to 250 million bushels and that for export and
possible increase in carry-over to 365 million bushels. The demand for feed from
the 1948 wheat crop will be strong until after the 1948 corn crop is harvested.
Table showing acreage, yield, and production, 1937-47, by principal types of
heat, is shown in The Wheat Situation for July 1948, page 2.
Yields have been increasing in recent years, not only because of favorable grow-
conditions, but also as a result of improved varieties, more timely seeding made
eible by modern machinery, and the practice of summer fallowing. The 1937-41
erage yield per seeded acre was 12.5 bushels; reported condition for these years
~&e about equal to the long-time (1919-47) average. The yield in 1947 was 18.5
ohele. However, if the weather conditions in 1947 had cnly equaled the long-time
average, studies of yield trends indicate that the yield would have been about
5 bushels. This would indicate that in 1947 about 4 bushels was the result of
e-avverage growing conditions. The above-average conditions were widely dis-
Ibuted in practically all of the wheat areas of the United States.
Average yields per seeded acre from 1942 to 1946 were as follows: 18.3; 15.1;
.0; 16.0; and 16.2.

0ll


BACKGROUND. The acreage seeded to wheat for the 1947 crop was
77.1 million acres (including volunteer wheat harvested). This
was 8 percent above the 71.5 million acres in 1946, 16 percent
above the 1936-45 average of 66.5 million acres, and only slightly
below the record high of 80.8 million for the 1937 crop and 80.1
million acres for the 1938 crop 1/. In 1947, as in other years of
high seedings, good crop rotations, including summer fallow, have
been sacrificed in many areas, and in some instances sod lands
that' are best suited for grass have been broken. Under normal
peacetime conditions, it would be desirable to seed a much
smaller acreage to wheat.




!:


AUGUST 1947 g i: I'
Exports in 1913-49 Expected to Continue Large;
Long-time Out]3ook for o-derately Large exports

Large scale exports began in late 1914. Subsequently, there has been a demand!
for more wheat th,.n was available for export in all surplus producing countries.
About 56 percent of our exports in 1946-47 went to paying countries. UNRRA took
14 percent and civilians in occupied areas received 30 percent (table 4).

Following the end of the active period of UNRRA operations on May 31, the tak
of supplying minimum requirements to deficit nations was largely assumed by the
United States Foreign Relief Program administered by the State Department.

The r'ar Department has been granted funds to continue to supply wheat and
flour to occupied areas. The demand by paying countries continues heavy. All in
all, the demand for United States exports in 1947-48 will be substantially greater
than supplies available for export.

Since the end of the war, exports of wheat and flour from the United States
have been very large in relation to exports from the three other principal exporting
countries--Canada, Argentina, and Australia. This was made possible by record crops
in the United States at a time when production in Argentina and Australia vas below
average. Under more normal growing conditions, yields per acre would be smaller in
the United States and larger in Argentina and Australia and the proportion of Unitid
States exports would be sharply smaller.

It is very likely that the demand for very large exports from the United
States will extend at least through 1948-49. This demand will be basbd on a moderate
recovery in production in many importing countries, including those producing rice.
Other factors in this dema:-d v:ill be -aced on the necessity of (1) increasing stocks
to reasonab! a working levels; (2 ) increasing bread rations from their present very
low levels; and (U) continuin,- exports of vhoat to deficit rice-consuming areas.

Assuninr 7b million seeded acres and yields at 14.3 bushels, the 265 million
bushels available for export and increase in carry-over would again fall short of
meeting the der-and. .'iuch of this quantity vould be used for civilian relief in
military zcinls, leaving only a small amount for export to former UIRRA and other
couni.:'-0 (. b1le -) Of coisrse, if crops in importing countries are good and other
exp-'.rt iun'r. s have very large supplies available for export, it is conceivable
that P. t~ surplus over domestic needs from another tremendous crop would not be
needed :i E.:-.p ts. in that case, it would be possible to restore at least a part of
our ca r' .o';:r position by the end of 1948-49.

After the urgency of the current situation is passed exports will decline,
Even so. it it very likely that we will still have a substantial level of exports
for some years to come.

Heat purchase by many European coOntries will gradually fall off, as the
level of production is restored. However, the financial and political role played
by the United States in international affairs will continue to be very important.
In the Orient, food requirements are bigger because there has been a great increase
in the population in the past decade.




4"WS-102 9 -

Unless the 1948 Crop is again Tremendous
Prices Are Likely to be above the Loan Level

In spite of the largest wheat crop in our history, growers' wheat prices are
currently above the average of $1.91 for 1946-47, the highest since the 1919
average of $2.16 (figures 1 and 2). The high prices reflect the very large foreign
demand as well as above-average domestic demand. If the crop is only about 1,070
million bushels and less than 300 million bushels are available for export, it
is likely that prices in 1948 will continue above support levels. Whether they
would decline to or below support levels with a very large crop would depend upon
export demand. Before postwar exports raised prices above the support level,
they usually fell below the loan level following harvest, but advanced above it
later in the season (table 5).

The Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1938, as amended by the Stabilization
Act approved October 2, 1942, which provides price-support loans to cooperating
farmers at 90 percent of the mid-June parity 4/, will end December 31, 1948.
The closing date for placing wheat under loan customarily has been December 31.
However, the price supporting effect of these loans usually continues until pros-
pects for the new crop dominate the market about late May. The law which provides
for loans of 52 to 75 percent of parity will still be in effect after December
31, 1948.

THE CURRENT DOMESTIC WHEAT SITUATION

BACKGROUND.- Record wheat crops were produced in the United States
in each of the last three years. Because of unusually large world
demand for bread grains, however, it was possible to move the sur-
plus over domestic requirements and reduce the carry-over to very
low levels.

In 1932-41, the supply of wheat in continental United States
averaged 982 million bushels consisting of carry-over old wheat,
235; production, 738; and imports for domestic use, 9. The total
disappearance averaged 721, consisting of food, 475; feed, 122;
seed, 81; and exports and shipments 43.

Wheat prices have advanced since 1940. Until 1943-44, the
loan program was the most important factor in domestic wheat prices.
Beginning in that year, however, the extra demand for wheat resulting
from the war became the important price factor.

Exports Likely to Equal 1946-47;
Quantity Depends upon Corn Crop
and Wheat Prospects

On August 1, wheat production was estimated at 1,428 million bushels, only
slightly below the 1,436 million indicated a month earlier, and still a record.
Even though July 1 old-crop stocks were only 83 million bushels, the total supplies
of 1,510 million are exceeded only by the 1,600 million bushels in both 1942 and
1943. In 1942, the carry-in was an all time high of 631 million bushels, and in
1943-44 imports amounted to 136 million bushels.
4/ If parity in mid-June 1948 should be the same as the parity of $ 2.08 per bushel
Tn mid-August 1947, the average rate to growers for the 194 crop at 90 percent
would be $1.87 per bushel. This compares with$1.83 for 1947. Parity is determined
jy multiplying the base price of 88.4 cents per bushel (average of 60 months from
August 1909 to July 1914) by the index of prices paid, interest and taxes (1910-14=
100), which in mi-August 1947 was 235 percent.




AUGUST 1947


Because the corn crop is small, about 325 million bushels of wheat may be
fed to livestock in 1947-48. This is above the 187million bushels fed last year
and the 1932-41 average of 122 millions but below the record of 488 millions in
1943-44. If 325 million bushels are fed and the corn crop is about as estimated
in mid-August, the grain and byproduct feed per animal. unit would about equal the
1937-41 average but would be below the level of recent years when animals were fed
to heavy weights.

Other domestic uses will include about 510 million bushels for food, 87millicn
for seed and 5 million for industry. Total domestic disappearance for the coming
marketing year would be about 925 million bushels. Since the total supply is
1,500 million bushels, about 575 million bushels would be available for export and
for carry-over July 1, 1948. In order to provide a reserve of 175 million bushels
for contingencies and carry-over, it would be necessary to limit exports to not
more than 400 million bushels, or about the same amount as was exported in 194C-47.
The carry-over last July-was permitted to dror to low levels, because of the un-
usually large prospective 1947 crop. If 1948 crop prospects are again unusually
favorable,.exports may be increased above 400 million bushels.

About 190 million bushels of wheat (including flour) of the 400 million-
bushel objective have been allocated or committed for export in July-October. It
is estimated that all of the commitments have b en rprccurred by the Production and
Marketing Administration and commercial handlers t,: dnte, and actual lifting 2or
export are running well in advance of the monthly, allocations. Fully one-fourth of
the September program had been cleared in August, In addition, the Production and
Marketing Administration has procurred enough wheat and flour for application on
the November program to rake a total export procurement of 200 million bushels.

ZTheat Prices Influenced by High Corn Prices

The price of wheat at Kansas City declined seasonally from late May to
July 7, when it was within 8 cents of the loan level, and then turned upward. On
July 29, it had declined again to within 11 cents of the loan. Since that time the
price has advanced and on August 30, the price of NI. 2 Hard Winter was "2.46,
44 cents above the loan. On that same date the price of No. 1 Dark Northern Spring
at Minneapolis at $2.53 was 48 cents above the loan. Wheat prices would be nearer
the loan level if corn prices were not as hig?. For the month of August the price
of No. 2 Hard Winter Wheat at Chicago averaged only a cent abovee the price of Io. 2
Yellow Corn at the same market and part of the time the rrice of corn was above
that of wheat.

Some strength to wheat prices has also resulted from the general deterio-
ration to the Canadian crop during July. However, this may be offset to some ex-
tent by the possibility of sizeable exports from Pius3ia and by prospects of a
considerably larger crop than in recent years in Australia.

THE CURRENT -.'CPILD WHEAT SI TUATI''II

BACKGR:1UlJD.- On July 1, 1943, stocks in the four principal exporting
countries were at a record of 1,740 milli-on bushels. B:, July 1945,
however, they had been reduced to 824 million bushels, and by July
1946, to about 387 million. Greatly increased disappearance was
caused by an accumulated demand brought on by the war and by poor
crops in Southern Hemisphere countries and elsewhere.


- 10 -






Import Heeds Again Exceed Available
Exrortable Suppies

Foreign demand in 1947-48 will again exceed supplies available for export
in surplus producing countries. Not only are bread grain crop prospects poor in
many importing countries, stocks and bread rations are at very low levels. Pros-
pects for large wheat exports from the United States are favorable, but exports of
other grains for food will be much below last year. Canadian prospects deterio-
rated generally in July as the result of high temperatures and insufficient moisture
The crop is now estimated at only 359 million bushels, which compares with 421 mil-
lion last year and 371 million, the 1936-45 average. In early August, however, the
weather turned cooler and beneficial rains were received.

Growing conditions for the December harvest in the Southern Hemisphere are
generally favorable, particularly in Australia. The acreage in Australia may be up
about 25 percent, but the first official estimate of acreage seeded in Argentina
indicates a reduction of about 13 percent from 1946. Even though conditions in the
Ukraine deteriorated somewhat because of dry weather in May, grain production in
the Spviet Union has been fairly good and sizeable exports are possible.

Information received during the past month tends to confirm estimates that
wheat production in Europe, excluding Soviet Russia, may be 10 percent or more
below the 1946 harvest of 1,350 million bushels and substantially below the pre-war
average of 1,670 million bushels. Estimates by individual countries will be re-
leased in FOREIGN CROPS AND MARKETS on September 15 and included in the next issue
of THE WIEAT SITUATION.

Conditions in Europe have varied widely. Prospects are poorest for Western
Europe, where the generally hot, dry summer prevented much recovery from the damage
caused by an unusually severe winter. This area includes several countries to
which the United States exported substantial quantities of grain during the past
year. Preliminary estimates of the crop in several of these countries are con-
flicting. In France, for example, many observers believe that the crop may be
40 percent below last year's harvest of about 250 million bushels. The crop was
placed at an even lower figure by the official estimate as of July 1. The severity
of the damage is indicated by a recent reduction of 20 percent in the already low
daily bread ration. Conditions are similar in the Low Countries. While the re-
duction from a year ago is less severe in Italy, indications are that the Italian
crop will be significantly lower than the 1946 harvest of about 245 million bushels

Not much change from the 1946 total is expected in Central Europe, where
relatively unfavorable conditions in Germany are offset by improvement in other
areas. In the important Balkan area, some reduction in outturn from last year is
expected, largely because of early season drought in parts of Greece, Bulgaria, and
Rumania. The outlook in the Scandinavian countries is definitely less favorable
than last year, largely as a result of winter damage in Denmark and Sweden. Re-
ports for Norway indicate a crop only slightly below average. The crop in the
United Kingdom is considered to be about 20 percent below the 69 million bushels
in 1946. Total production in North Africa is expected to be about 10 percent less
than the 1946 harvest of 117 million bushels. Outturns were best for French
Morocco but production is indicated to be below a year ago in all areas.


- 11 -


WS-102




AUG'3'ST 1947 -12-

The total crop in Asia is probably near the 1946 level, but prospects are not
favorable in areas to which significant quantities of U. S. wheat were shipped in
1946-47. Production in China is expected to be above that of a year ago, but in
Japan and Korea conditions have been unfavorable and the outturn may be as small or
smaller than in 1946. The second official estimate of wheat production in India
places the crop at 320 million bushels--the smallest since 1928--and considerable
quantities of grain will need to be irmorted again this years Turkey's crop is also
considerably smaller than a year ago when the record harvest of 180 million bushels
provided some surplus for export.

VLheat stocks in the 4 major exporting countries on July 1, 1947 were about
379 million bushels. Stocks in the United States were 83 million bushels, in Canada
115 million,in Argentina 125 million, and in Australia 56 million. The total is
slightly smaller than the 387 million bushels last year, the smallest'since 1938,
and about 17 percent below the 1935-39 average of 458 million bushels.

World exports in 1946-47 totaled about 757 million bushels. This was consider
ably above the 560 million-bushel prewar average, but was far less than importing
countries wanted. Exports included: United States, 400 million bushels; Canada,
229 million; Argentina nearly 70 million; Australia 49 million; and other countries
about 10 million.

TIE OUTLOOK FOR RYE

High Prices Likely to
Increase Rye Grain Acreage

A national rye goal of 2.3 million acres for harvest as grain in 1948 was
announced July 31. This .is 18 percent above the 1.95 million acres for harvest in
1947, but only 62 percent of the 1937-41 average of 3.7 million acres. The acreago
of rye for harvest in 1947 at 1.95 million acres fell short of the 2.4 million-acre
goal. Because of very high prices in the iL:st 2 years, however, the slightly loaer
goal may be reached. Until this year, the trend in rye acreage had been down7-.ard
for a number of years, largely because of competition from other crops for avail-ble
land (fig. 3, table 11).

If yields equal the 1937-46 weighted average of 12 bushels per acre, 2.3
million acres would produce about 27-1/2 million bushels. On the basis of a crop
of this size, food, and spirit use might be slightly above that in 1947-48 and sccd
about the same. More rye probably would be used for feed because of the relatively
poor prospects for the 1947 corn crop. VWhile some rye might be exported, the'total
quantity would be small. If production is larger than 27-1/2 million bushels, or if
imports increase the supply, more rye might be used for spirits or exports, or stocks
might be increased to more normal levels. A production less than 27-1/2 million
bushels would probably result in reduced use for human food or for livestock feed.

The supply and distribution of rye for 1946-47 as well as other years since
1934 are shown in table 12. Because of the very small supplies in 1946-47, dis-
appearance was the smallest in 21 years. Rye prices at Minneapolis for 1946-47
averaged '.2.55 (table 10), vahich is the highest in our history, exceeding the pre'vi-
ous record of ^1.93 for 1917-18.









RYE: ACREAGE, YIELD, PRODUCTION, FOREIGN
TRADE, AND PRICE, 1900-1947


ACRES
I MILLIONS)

6


4


2


0
BUSHELS


16


12


8
BUSHELS
I MILLIONS)

75


50


25


0
BUSHELS
(MILLIONS)

40


20


0n


1900 1905


.























,


SExports^ l FOREIGN TRADE


S_ Imports_


1910 1915 1920


1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 195


YEAR BEGINNING JULY


I I I I


900-1907 DEC. PRICE

U.S. DEPARTMENT OP AGRICULTURE


DATA FOR 1947 ARE PRELIMINARY

NEG. 40025 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIC*


Figure 3.-
Rye acreage harvested In 1917 totaled 1.95 million acres, and except for the past
2 years, was the smallest since 1934. Yield at 13.0 bushels was above the 1937.46 ave-
rage of 12.1 bushels. With production in 1946 small--the smallest since 1875--an de-
mand good, prices In 1946-47 advanced to an all-time high.'
The acreage ow rye hat been djetfI ng steadllf for a number of years. Rye'y elds
were quite stable until 1916, but have varied considerably since the expansion in the
Great Plains, which began during World War 1. In contrast to 1918-24, when exports
wei very large, Imports have been larger than exports In 10 of the past 14 years,


ACRES
MILLIONS)

6


4


2


0
BUSHELS


16


12


8
CENTS
PER
BUSHEL
150


100


50


0
BUSHELS
(MILLIONS)

40


20


0
i0






Table 2.- V.heat: Supply and distribution in the United States, 1930-47

Year Supply Distribution
begin-i Stocks : : : Domestic disappearance : Exports
ning : July 1: N : Imports Total :Processed : industrial: : including
July l/ : crop : 2_/ supply :for food 3/. Feed Seed : use : Total shipments 4/
: Mil. bu. Mil. bu. 7hl. bu. Mil. bu. Mil, bu. Mil.bu. Mil. bu. Mi bu Mil bu. Mil. buo


1930 :
1931 :
1932
1933 :
1934 :
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941 :
1942 :
1943
1944
1945
1946 6/:
19476/


291.1
312.5
375.3
377.8
272.9
145.9
140.4
1/ 83.2
153.1
250.0
279.7
384.7
630.8
618.9
316.6
279.2
100.1
83.4


886.5
941.5
756.3
552.2
526.1
628.2
629.9
873.9
919.9
741.2
814.6
942.0
969,4
843.8
1,060.1
1,108.2
1,155.7
1,427.7


0.4


0.1
15.5
34.6
34.5
0.6
0.3
0.3
3.5
3.7
1I0
136.0
42.0
2.0
---.


1,178.0
1,254.0
1,131.6
930.1
814.5
808.7
804.8
957.7
1,073.3
991.5
1,097.8
1,330.4
1,601.2
1,598.7
1,418.7
1,389.4
1,255.8
1,511.1


489.6
482.8
492.4
448.4
459.1
472.6
477.9
474.6
481,4
475.4
478.5
487.8
537.0
543.1
542.5
496.1
498.3
(510.0)


179.7
190.3
143.0
102.6
113.5
100.9
115.1
132.5
156.8
115.1
123,1
116.5
291.5
487.9
281,0
299.1
186.6
(325,0)


80.9
80.0
83.5
77,8
82.6
87.6
96.6
94.1
75.5
72.9
74,3
62.3
65,0
77.5
80,7
82.0
8795
(87 0)


i 5
---


0.1
0.1
0.1

0.1
0.1
0.1
1.6
54.3
107.5
82.3
21.0
(0
(5.0)


750.2
753.1
718.9
628.8
655.3
661.2
689.7
701.2
713.8
663.5
676.0
668.2
947.8
1,216.0
986.5
898.2
772.4
(927,0)


115.3
125.6
34.9
28.4
13.3
7.1
12.3
103.4
109.5
48.3
37,1
31.4
34.5
66.1
153.0
391.1
400.0
(400.0)


I/ 1930-36, inclusive, some new wheat included in commercial stocks and merchant mills stocks; beginning with 1937
only old crop wheat is shown in all stocks positions. The figure for Julyl, 1937 including the new wheat is 102.8
million bushels, which is used as year-end carry-over in the 1936-37 marketing year.
2 Imports include full-duty wheat for milling, wheat "unfit for human consumption" for animal feed, and dutiable
flour in terms of wheat. Wheat imported for milling in bond is excluded.
Included food for both civilian population and the military forces.
4/ Includes flour made only from domestic wheat and shipments to U. S. territories. Beginning with 1940
includes military exports for European relief and exports by the Department of Agriculture.
5/ Less than 50,000 bushels.





.Table 3. heat and Flour Exports and shipments, quarterly and annually, in terms of wheat, 1941-47

S. Exports : Shipments t
Period
Period t Flourin terms Grand
orop year Weat grain only Flof rinte Grain Flour : Grand
with ep. by aOther 2 :ept. by Other 2/ ep't. by Wther '1 Rept. y Other 2/ Total
quarters ensus Bur. Census Bur.: I Census Bur. s -Census Bur.. V
S1,000 bu 1,00 bu. bu. 000 bu 1000 bu 1000 bu. 1,000 bu. 1,000 bu.

1941-42
JutPzI ...' 12,632 0 14,071 1,010 51 115 3,160 350 31,389
1942-43 r
July--ept. ...' 1,342 0 3,872 265 1 70 869 1,152 7,571
Oct.-Deo. *..... 886 0 2,966 262 0 12 139 833 5,098
Jan.-Mar. .....' 1217 0 4,55. 625 1 68 57 984 7,707
Apr.-June ..... 3,110 0 8,353 625 0 50 91 1,905 14,134
JULY-JUNE 6... 6.555 0 19,946 1,777 2 200 1,156 a,874 54,510

- 2,754 0 3,820 2;000 0 45 54 775 9,448
o.-i .....: 4,759 0 6,538 7,200 0 34 43 595 19,169
Jan.--ar.......: 2,166 S;000 9,764 4,200 0 81 25 443 19,679
Apr.-June...... 2,263 3-638 8,208 2,500 0 30 56 1;064 17,759
J 4 51aAJ : 11,942 6,638 28,330 15.900 0 190 178 2,877 6,055
July-ept. .... 3,632 2,700 4,601 3,362 0 73 51 1,377 15,792-
Oct.-Deo. ....., 1,968 8,959 6,064 15,831 0 48 35 693 35,598
Jan.-Mare .....r 4,738 11,050 8,356 8.026 0 84 62 1,279 33,595
Apr.-June ..... 8,672 34,344 9,176 16,612 0 52 69 1,051 69,976
JULY-JUNE ... 19,010 57,053 28,197 43,831 0 257 217 4,400 152,965
1945-46 1:
July-Sept- .,.. 40,748 18,314 10,708 24,901 32 0 199 0 94,902
Oct.-Dec. ....,, 74,606 5,397 18,287 7,215 34 0 1,576 0 107,115
Jan.-Mar. ...... 67,693 7,587 25,915 3J135 47 0 861 0 105,238
Apr.-June .....1 43,215 13,550 24,966 508 4 0 1,242 0 83,485
JULY-JUNE ...r 226,262 44,848 79,876 35,759 117 0 3,878 0 390,741
1946-47
July-Sept. ...: 43;587 7,037 21,645 6,200 120 0 697 0 79,286
Oot.-Deo. .....: 32,659 19,037 28,994 4,785 12 0 1,298 0 86,785
Jan.-Uar. ...... 41,389 15,042 52,827 A/ 6,295 26 0 1,194 0 117,773
Apr.-June .....3 26,394/14,039 53,244 7/22,196 9 0 581 0 116,463
JULY-JUNE ...1 144,029 55,155 157,710 39,476 167 0 3,770 0 400,307

A Excludes flour milled in- bond from foreign wheat.
_ Practically all military.
SDoes not include quantities of wheat and flour exported to the United Kingdom Zone prior to February 1, 1947,
nor does it include the following quantities exported to the U.S.-U.K. Zone in British boats: For February-Maroh
1,228,000 bushels of flour in terms of wheat; for April-June 3,307,000 bushels of flour in terms of wheat, and
1,358,000 bushels of wheat as grain; for March-June, quantities procured oommeroially by the British and exported
to the U.S.-U.K. Zones.





UOTUST 1947


- 16 -


Table 4.- Exports of wheat and flour 1/, United States,
1945-46 and 1946-47

:1945-46 : 1946 1947-
Item :Wheat and : : :
: flour 1/ : Wheat Flour / Total
: Mil. bu. Mil. bu. Mil. bu. Mil. bu.
Military civilian relief 2/: 80.6 63.0 55.6 118.6
U.N.R.R.A. : 85.8 31.8 23.8 55.6
Foreign Governments,
by U.S.D.A. 3/ : 137.1 91.0 4.5 95.5
Commercial exports : 83.7 11.9 114.8 126.7
Total : 387.2 197.7 198.7 /396.4

/ Wheat equivalent. 2/ For 1946-47 includes US-UK Zones of Germany both before
and after they became combined, the US Zones of the Pacific (Japan, Korea, and Ruy-
kyus); U.S.-U.K. Zone in Italy, and exports to Austria by the military only. In-
cludes the following under military and not under commercial; 10.6 million bushels
flour in terms of wheat, which was exported to the U. K. Zone before December 31,
1946 and to the U. S. U. K. Zone of Germany March-June, and which was procurred
commercially by the British. This item does not include quantities used by military
forces. 3/ The U. S. Department of Agriculture also largely handled the exports for
military zones and UNRRA. 4/ Does not include 4.0 million bushels of shipments to
U. S. territories nor 12.7 million bushels of Canadian wheat milled in bond for
export. 2/ Does not include 3.9 million bushels of shipments to U. S. territories
nor 6.5 million bushels of Canadian wheat milled in bond for export.

Table 5.- Wheat, No. 2'Hard Winter: Price, loan value, and ceiling at
Kansas City, 1937-47
_(Data for figure 2)
Year: Weighted cash price of No. 2 Hard Winter Vheat at Kansas City I/ :Loan
beg-: :value
in- : : : : : : : : at
ning:July :Aug. :Sept.: Oct.: Nov.:Dec. :Jan. :Feb. :Mar. :Apr. :May :June :Kansas
July: : City2,
:Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
1937: 22- I.rn 109o T106 9.2 9-35 102.7 99 91.5 8416 79.7 --
1938: 70.0 65.5 65.7 64.7 63.3 66.9 70.9 69.2 68.7 69.6 75.7 70.9 72
1939: 66.7 64.6 85.9 82.7 85.8 98.3 101.2 99.4 102.1 105.7 94.7 76.3 77
1940: 70.7 69.3 75.8 81.6 84.5 83.0 84.7 77.8 85.1 87.2 90.4 97.3 77
1941: 98.3 106.6 114.1 112.2 113.4 120.1 125.6 123.1 121.0 114.6 114.9 110.9 .110
1942:107.9 111.2 120.3 120.5 123.1 130.5 136.8 137.0 139.9 138.4 138.1 137.0 .127
1943:140.1 139.8 145.8 152.3 156.4 162.8 164.8 163.0 165.2 164.0 163.2 155.6 137
1944:152.1 150.8 153.0 161.3 159.1 162.0 163.6 165.8 166.3 165.7 166.7 168.2 150
1945:158.3 159.8 162.1 168.3 168.9 169.2 169.2 169.1 172.0 172.1 --- 186.1 153
1946:197.8 193.8 196.0 203.9 210.4 207.2 209.0 226.1 269.4 267.6 269.3 237.3 202
1947:228.8

I/ Computed by weighting selling price by number of carlots sold as reported in
the Kansas City Grain Market Review. In this price, wheat of above as well as be-
low 13 percent protein is included. 2/ Loan rate is for wheat of less than 13 per-
cent. Ceiling became effective January 4, 1944 at $1.62 including 1-1/2 cents
commission, basis protein of less than 13 percent. On December 13, 1944 it was
raised to $1.66, on May 30, 1945 to $1.691, on March 4, 1946 to 172.1, and on May
13, 1946 to 187.1. On June 30, 1946 ceilings expired.


~C




WS-102 17 -
Table 6. Average price per bushel of v heat received by farmers
and,.parity price, United States 1931-47 I
(Data for figure 1)
SYear: : : : : : : : : : : rket-
be- : : : : : : : : :ing
gin-:July :Aug. :Sept.:Oct. :Novo : Dec.: Jan.: Feb.: Mar.: Apr.: May :June :year
ning: 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : :aver-
e July: :-e, _: : ___ ___ ____ : __ : age
S:Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents eOnts' Cents Cents oenTs Cersens--
Averago j'rce 2.
1931: 3C., 35.4 '35.7 36.1 50.5 44.1 44.1 44.0 44.2 43.1 42;4 37.3 39.0
1932: 35.6 38.5 37.4 34.6 32.8 31.6 32.9 32.3 34.5 44.8 59.0 58.7 38.2
1933: 86.9 74.7 71.1 63.6 71.1 67.3 69.4 72,0 70.9 68.7 69.5 78.9 "74.4
1934: 78.8 89.6 92.2 88.5 88.1 90.6 89.3 87,9 85,5 90 2 87,8 77.3 84.8
1935: 76.4 80.8 85.1 94.8 87.5 88.9 92.0 91.1 89.3 85.4 81.6 79.9 83.2
1936: 94.1 104.8 104.3 106.8 106.4 114.5 123.6 124.9 123.2 126.6 118.3 108.9 102.5
1937:112.8 99.4 93.0 88.7 81.9 83.6 88.6 86.6 80.3 75.0 71.4 69.7 96.2
1938: 60.8 50.7 52.5 52.2 52,0 53.6 57.1 56.9 56,7 57.8 63.0 62.53/56.2
1939: 55.7 54.5 72.7 70.3 73.1 82.4 84.5 84.1 85.0 88.9 80.7 67.4 69.1
1940: 61.4 60.1 62.6 68.2 72.5 71.5 73.0 67.8 71.8 76.0 79.4 83.1 68.2
1941: 85.6 88.5 95.8 91.0 93.4 102.2 106.1 104.9 105.1 99.7 99.8 95.7 94.5
1942: 94.6 95.4 102.8 103.5 104.4 110.3 117.5 119.5 122.7 122.3 122.8 124.0 109.8
1943:126.0 127.0 130.0 135.0 137.0 143.0 146.0 146.0 146.0 147.0 147.0 143.0 136.0
1944:129.0'.135.0 135.0 142.0 143.0 145.0 146.0 147.0 148.0 149.0 149.0 150.0 141.0
1945:146.0 145.0 145.0 151.0 153.0 154.0 154.0 155.0 158.0 158.0 170.0 174.0 150.0
1946:187.0 178.0 179.0 188.0 189.0 192.0 191.0 199.0 244.0 240.0 239.0 218.0 191.0

Parity Price 47
1931:124.6 122.9 121.1 120.2 118.5 118.5 114.0 114.0 112.3 111.4 109.6 108.7
1932:108.7 108.7 107.8 107.0 106.1 105.2 100.8 100.8 99.9 100.8 100.8 101.7
1933:105.2 108.7 112.3 112.3 112.3 11206 109,6 111.4 112.3 112.3 113.2 113.2
1934:113.2 115.8 116.7 116.7 116.7 116.7 114.9 115.8 115.8 115.8 115.8 115.8
1935:114.9 114.0 113.2 113.2 112.3 112.3 111.4 111.4 110.5 110.5 110.5 109.6
1936:112,3 114o9 114.9 114.9 114,9 115.8 116.7 118.5 118.5 120.2 120;2 120.2
1937:119.3 118.5 116.7 115.8 114.9 114.0 114.0 114.0 113.2 113.2 113.2 112.3
1938:111.4 110.5 109.6 109.6 109.6 109.6 108.7 108.7 108.7 108.7 108.7 108.7
1939:108.7 107.8 110.5 110.5 110.5 110.5 110.5 110.5 111.4 111.4 111.4 111.4
1940:110.5 110'5 110.5 130.5 110.5 111.4 110.5 110.5 111.4 111.4 112.3 114.9
1941:115o8 118,5 121,1 122,9 124.6 125.5 127.3 129.1 130.8 131.7 132.6 132.6
1942:133.5 133.5 134.4 135.3 136.1 137.0 137.9 139.7 140.6 141.4 143.2 144.1
1943:145.0 145,0 145.0 146.0 147.0 148.0 149.0 149.0 149.0 149.0 149.0 150.0
1944:150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 151.0 151.0 152.0 152.0 153.0 153.0 153.0 153.0
1945:153.0 153.0 154.0 155.0 155.0 156.0 156.0 158.0 159.0 160.0 164.0 166.0
1946:176.0 180.0 177.0 183.0 187.0 188.0 190.0 195.0 201.0 tC7.0 202.0 203.0

1/ Data for earlier years in The Vh~eat Situation as follos: 1909-'21 November 1941,
pages 12 and 13; 1922-30, August 1945, pages 20-21.
2/ monthlyy prices by States weighted by production to obtain a price for the United
States; average for year obtained by weighting State price averages for the
marketing year.
/ Beginning 1938 includes unredeemed loans at average loan value.
4/ Computation of parity price: Average price in base period ( August 1909 to
July 1914) x monthly index of prices paid by farmers, interest and taxes. Example
for March 1947 a 88.4 x 2.35 = 2.08




AUGUST 1947


18 -

Table 7.- Wheat: Weighted average cash price: specified
markets and dates, 1946 and 1947 (Data for figure 2)


:All classes : No. 2 : No. 1 Dk. : No. 2 Hard : No. 2 : Soft
Month :and grades :Bard winter: N. Spring :Amber Durum :Red Winter: White
and -six markets :Kansas City:Minneapdlla :Minneapolis :St. Louis :Portland 1/
date :1946 : 1947 :194&6 : 1947:1946: 1947 : 1946 : 194771946: 47 197:9: 19 7
:Cents Cents Cents Cents CentbCnts Cents Cents CentsCents Cents Cents
Months: :
SJuly :.202.6 240.0 197.8 228.8 222.4 293.5 230.0 242.9 211.1 236.8 183.2 215.7
Week


207.1
207.1
204.8
197.0
196.3
196.7
200.5
198.6


247.7
241.8
240.7
240.4
236.0
239.0
243.4
250.8


205.1 -14.8
202.4 220.9
199.4 231.1
193.2 232.2
193.7 226.5
193.1 229.6
194.5 229.1
193.5 234.1


217.0
223.3
235.1
223.8
208.1
205.4
207,4
204.8


285.6
290.0
295.3
300.7
297.9
290.0
280.7
269.7


230.0



220.7
223.0


23514
245.6
247.0
245.3
239.4
245.0
248.1
255.0


212.4
215.2
211.3
203.4
201.1
200.8
203.4
207.0


,---
233.9
237.7
238.5
231.7
236.7
237.3
244.2


182.2
183.2
183.1
183.9
184.5
182.6
181.5
182.1


207.8
215.1
217.6
218.6
216.3
220.4
221.8
225.1


/ Average of daily cash quotations. 2/ Beginning July 9, 1947 sales of hard and
dark hard winter combined.


Table 8.- Wheat: Average closing price of September futures,
specified markets and dates, 1947 l/


Period : Chicago

Cents
Months:
May 221.4
June : 215.6
July : 229.1


Kansas : Minne-
City apolis

Cents Cents


215.1
208.5
220.1


222.5
213.7
230..7


S: Kansas
Period : Chicago City


: Week
Ended:
: Aug. 2
9
16
23


Cents Cents


229.4
234.6
236.5
244.0


220.6
225.0
226.4
232.8


I1 Comparable figures for 1946 are not available as a result of action taken by
the various grain exchanges, following grain ceiling increases May 13, which are
summarized in The Wheat Situation, July 1947 page 13.


ended
July 5:
12:
19:
26:
Aug. 2:
9:
16:
23:


Minne-
* -i i-


apoli-
Cents


232.0
236.0
236.7
241.8


1


@


6





WS-102 19 -

Table 9. Wheat: Prices per bushel in three exporting countries, Friday
nearest midmonth, January-AutuSt 1947, and weekly July-August 1947


H; ARD WHEAT :HAR WHEAT SOFT WHEAT
Date United States :, Canada : United States:United Sate Astker aa
(Friday) .No. 1 H.D.N. Sp.:No. 3 Canadian: :No. 1 D.H.W. : No. :
13 pCt. protein :No Spg at j ort Galveston !/:Portland 1/:
Friday midmonth : Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents


Jan. 17 .........:
Feb. 14 ......... :
Mar. 14 ......... :
Apr. 18 .........:
May 16 ......... :
rJune 13 ......... :
rJuly 18 .........:
lAug. 15 ......... :
, Weekly
fJuly 3..........:
11..........:
25..........:

Aug. 1 .........:
8 .........:
22 .........:
29 .........:


221
227
280
274
268
263
284
257

295
295
295

290
282
260
265


223
239
292
284
276
251
249
254

235
257
254

251
255
261
270


223
244
301
284
277
223.5
241
242.8

224.5
242.5
240

237.5
244.2
249.2
259.2


188.5
200
233
237
238
233
216
222.5

208
220.5
217

218
221 "
225.5
230


219.4
227.2
235.5











259.4
--



259.


1/ F.O.B. spot or to arrive. I2 Fort William quotation is in store. No. 1 Heavy
Dark Northern Spring, 13 percent protein, (Duluth) plus 1/2 cent (for in-store basis
is assumed to be fairly comparable with No. 3 Canadian Northern Spring wheat (Fort
William in store.)
Table 10. Rye, No. 2: Weighted average price per bushel of reported
cash sales, Minneapolis, by months, 1940-47 i/

ear: : .


begin-:
ning :July
July :
:Cents
1940 :--39
1941 : 54.9
1942 : 60.6
1943 :101.2
1944 :113.0
1945 :152,8
1946 :239.0
1947 :254.1


: : .Wtd
Aug. Sept.:Oct. Nov. Dec., Jan.: Feb. Mar. Apr.: May June A
S: b : v.
: .. : ....: -


Cents Cents
-43.6 47.9B
67.8 60.0
64.6 59.1
101.4 D8.5
103.1114.8
151.3 164.3
223.5239.2


Cents
50.2
64.1
59.3
11.0
113.1
L83.9
267.6


SCents
50.0
67.8
70.3
120.2
114.3
175.2
279.3


Cents
52.6
80.3
74.7
127.0
122.8
198.4
285.7


Cents Cents Cents
50.2 52.4 56.5
78.1 75.5 71.8
79.2 82.9 80.9
122.5123.5 127.1
123.5127.2 133.9
212.9235.9 269.8
310.83539 310.8


Cents Cents Cents

69.3 60.3 65.1
87.2 94.1 73.4
119.4112.1 108.1
139.2155.3 122.2
284.2 --- 171.8
319.2302.9.255.2


Cents

61.7
58.8
95.4
112.1
144.2
195.2


Compiled from Minneapolis Daily Market Record. Average of daily prices weighted
by carlot sales.
i/ Data for earlier years in The Wheat Situation as follows: 1915-32, June 1937,
page 16, 1933-39, March-April 1945, page 18




AUGUST 1947


- 20 -


Table 11.- Rye: Acreage, yield, production, foreign trade, and price,


Year : Acreage
beginning: harvested
:0July00
:1,000 acres


1901
1902 :
1903 :
1904
1905
1906
1907
1908 :
1909
1910
1911
1912
1913 :
1914
1915
1916 :
1917
1918
919 :
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927 :
1928
1929
1930
1931 :
1932
.1933
1934
1935
1936 :
1937
1938 :
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943.
1944
1945
1946 :/
1947 4/


2,409
2,444
2,260
2,205
2,297
2,154
2,073
2,130
2,212
2,262
2,452
2,724
3,089
3,144
3,417
3,528
5,059
6,694
7,168
4,825
4,851
6,757
4,936
3,941
3,800
3,419
3,458
3,310
3,138
3,646
3,159
3,350
2,405
1,921
4,066
2,694
3,825
4,087
3,822
3,204
3,573
3,792
2,652
2;132
1,856
1,598
1.953


/ From reports of Department of
2/ December 1 price, 1900-1907.
average loan value. 4/ Prelimine


*
*
:
,


Yield
:per acre
Bushels

12.8
13.9
12.8
12.9
13.6
13.7
13.6
13.5
13.6
12.9
12.8
13.9
13.1
13.4
13.7
12.2
11.9
12.5
11.0
12.8
12.6
14.9
11.3
14.8
11.1
10.2
14.8
11.5
11.3
12.4
10.4
11.7
8.6
S8.5
14.0
9.0-
,12.8
.13.7
10.1
12.4.
12.3-
14.0
10.8
10.6
12.9
11.7
13.0


'-""


1


United States, 1901-47
(Data for figure 3) _
SExports Imports : Price
Production : -/ :received bi
:- : :farmers 2/
1,000 bushels 1,000 bushels 1,00bushels Cbnta p bu.

30,773 2,712 --- 55.7
33,862 5,445 1 50.8
28,932 784 34 54.5
28,461 30 21 68.8
31,173 1,388 1 61.1
29,609 770 1 '58.9'
28,247 2,445 2 2/73.1
28,650 1,296 1 /74,5
30,083 242 30 74.6
29,098 40 227 73.4
31,396 31 134 '81.0
37,911 1,855 1 68.7
40,390 2,273 37 62,9
42,120 13,027 147 83.3
46,752 15,250 566 "85.0
43,089 13,703 428 113.0
60,321 17,186 834 176.4
83,421 36,467 638 152.1
78,659 41,531 1,077 145.9
61,915 47,337 452 146.4
61,023 29,944 700 84.0
100,986 51,663 99 63.9
55,961 19,902 2 59.3.
58,445 50,242 1 95.2
42,316 12,647 -- 79.1
34,860 21,698 1 83.0
51,076 26,346 2 83.5
37,910 9,844 1 83.6
35,411 2,600 1 85.7
45,383 227 88 44.4
32,777 909 1 34.1
39,099 311 14 28.1
20,573 21 12,019 62.8
16,285 --- 12,250 72.0
56,938 9 2,266 39.8
24,239 248 3,943 81.2
48,862 6,578 --- 68.6
55,984 784 1 33.8
38,562 732 --- 43.9
39,725 245 1,392 1/41.9
43,878 23 8,758 53.9
52,929 450 1,490 59.8
28,680 594 8,314 98.1
22,525 3,144 4,149 109.0
23,952 7,196 1,996 135.0
18,685 574 1,641 192.0
25405 _
Commerce of the United States. Includes flour.
3/ Beginning 1940 includes unredeemed loans at
ary.




- 21 -


Table 12. Rye:


Supply and distribution, United States,


1934-47
Year :_ Suppl : D istrJiution :.. Total
begin-:tocks Produc- : Food : Feed : :Alcohol: : ort:disap-
ning : / ion :ImportseTotal : eed :-spir- :Total 4 :pear-
July : =: : its: : ance
:Mil.bu.Mil. bu. Mil.bu.Mil.bu.Mil.bu.Mil.Bu.Mil'.iuMil .bu. Mil.bu.Mil.bu.Mil.


16.3
56.9
24.2
48.9
56.0
38.6
39.7
43.9
52.9
28.7
22.5
24.0
18.7
25.4


11.2
2.3
3.9
2/
2/
1.4
8.8
1.5
8.3
4.1
2.0
1.5
(1.2)


42.4
70.0
47.8
54.1
64.5
60.5
60.7
71.4
83.5
84.1
57.6
38.2
22.5
(28.9)


8.0
6.9
7.0
5.9
6.8
7.0
7.1
7.8
8.3
8.7
7.8
6.7
5.5


4.8
21.9
13.8
18.0
19.8
20.2
19.9
19.2
26.5
33.2
18.4
9.2
5.2


8.6
8.7
10.0
9.1
9.7
7.4
8.1
8.5
7.5
6.1
5.8
4.5
4.7


10.2
12.8
11.6
6.0
5.5
5.6
6.7
6.8
2.1
4.5
10.3
8.3
4.2


31.6
50.3
42.4
39.0
41.8
40.2
41.8
42.3
44.4
52.5
42.3
28.7
19.6


0.2
6.6
0.8
0.7
0.2
2/
0.5
0.6
3.1
7.2
0.6


31.6
50.3
42.6
45.6
42.6
40.9
42.0
42.3
44.9
53.1
45.4
35.9
20.2


.1 1934-42, farm and commercial stocks only. Beginning in 1943, the figures also
include interior mill and elevator stocks. 2/ Estimates based on trade information
related to the Census of 1939. 3/ Residual item. 4/ Includes flour. 2/ Less than
50,000 bushels. 6/ Preliminary.

WHERE TO FIND STATISTICS ON THE WHEAT SITUATION NOT INCLUDED IN THIS ISSUE: _/


THE DOMESTIC WHEAT SITUATION
Supply and distribution
Total wheat, 1909-46 ..............................
Total wheat, by quarters, 1942-47 ................
Durum, 1940-45 .................... .......... .....
nurumn. 1941-46 ... ...............................
Stocks
By position on July 1, 1941-47 ....................
Acreage, yield, production, and farm disposition
Acreage, yield, and production, by types, 1940-45 ..
Acreage, seeded by regions, 1919-46 ................
Production by areas, 1'00-1945 .....................
Acreage and percentage of various classes ..........
Production and farm disposition, 1909-45 ...........
Exports and imports
Exports of wheat including flour to specified
countries, 1910-39 ............... .... .....
Exports from U. S. by destination, 1937-38, 1938-39
Imports into the United States, 1923-44 ...........
Destination of U. S. exports by countries, 1945-46,
1946-47 ..........................................
Sales, and income, and prices
Sales, price, and cash income, U.S., 1910-45 ......
Percentage monthly sales, average 1934-43, and
annual 1934-45 ..................................
1/ Selected tables used most frequently


Page


Issue


May
July
July
Aug.


1947
1947
1945
1946


WS-100
WS-101
ws- 89
ws- 96


9 July 1947 WS-101


July
Sept.
May
Mar.
June


Aug.
Jan.
Sept.

July

Apr.
Nov.


1947 WS-101
1946 WS- 97
1945 WS- 88
1943 WS- 73
1946 WS- 95


1940
1945
1945


WS- 46
ws- 86
WS- 91


1947 WS-101

1946 WS- 94
1946 WS- 98


1934
1935
1936
1937
1938 :
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944 :
1945 :
1946
1947 :


14.9
10.8
19.7
5.2
8.5
21.9
19.6
18.7
29.1
47.1
31.0
12.2
2.3
2.3





U. S. Department of Agriculture
Washington 25, D. C.


Penalty for private use to avoid
payment of postage $300


OFFICIAL BUSINESS

BAE-WS-9/47-4400
PERMIT NO. 1001


UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
311 I 1111111111111 1 11108862
3 1262 08862 6535


xiI2.


* .3 :"'. a Tr?"ARy

", ;::;" m L FLA


WHERE TO FIND STATISTICS NOT INCLUDED IN THIS ISSUE (continued)


THE WORLD WHEAT SITUATION
Supply and distribution
World, 1922-40 ....................................... 15
Canada, Argentina, Australia, averages 1929-33
and 1934-38, annual 1941-46 ........................ 13
By countries 1946 production, 1934-38 production, trade
and domestic use, and 1938-39 exports from U. S. and
other countries .................................... 8
Stocks
July 1, Average 1935-39, annual 1940-46 ............... 26
Acreage and production
Acreage, yield, and production, world-, excluding the
U.S.S.R. and China, average 1935-39, annual 1944-46 14
Acreage, yield, and production, Canada, 1909-45. 15
Acreage, of wheat, world and specified countries,
1909-40 ........ ... ............... .... ... .... ..* 17
Production of wheat, world.and specified
countries, 1909-40 ................................... 10
Acreage, yield and production, average 1935-39, annual
1944-46 .....................; .- ..... ..... .. .. 14
International trade
International trade in wheat Including flour,
calendar years, 1937-40.......................... 20
International trade in wheat flour, calendar
years, 1938-40 ..................................... 21
International trade in wheat including flour,..
July year, averages 1925-34, annual 1937-39 ....... 16
Relative importance of wheat importing countries,
1934-38 ....................... ..... ............. 8
Relative importance ofW'heat exporting countries,
1934-38 ........... .. ......... ......... ........ .. .9
Net exports wheat and flour, 4 princ.exporting countries
1922-1946 ................. ... *,.. .... ................ 14


Mar. 1941 WS- 53

Feb. 1947 WS- 99


May 1947 WS-100

Aug. 1946 WS- 96


Sept. 1946 WS- 97
July 1945 WS- 89

June 1941 WS- 56

SNov. 1945 WS- 92

Sept. 1946 WS- 97


Mar. 1942 WS-'65

Mar. 1942 WS- 65

Feb. 1941 WS- 52

Jan. 1945 WS- 86

Jan. 1945 WS- 86

Feb. 1947 WS- 99


C 1 : _..-


I I

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