Current industrial reports

A UNMED STATES
DEPARTMENT OF
PCOMMERCEA
PUBLICATION


FOR RELEASE:


CURRENT


manufacturers'


NDUSTR


Shipments,


REPORTS


Inventories


and


Decemb


February 4, 1970


SERIES:


Orders


er 1969


M3-1(69)-12


New orders for manufactured products in De-
cember declined $1.3 billion or 2.4 percent to $54.6
billion, after seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of the


Census,
today.


U.S. Department of Commerce, announced
The decline in new orders was accompanied


by a decline of $1.1 billion in shipments to $54.9
billion from $56.0 billion in November. The backlog
of unfilled orders at $89.1 billion declined $200


million from November.


Manufacturers' inventories


continued to rise with an increase of $500 million


or 0.5 percent to a total of $95.9 billion from


billion at the end of November.


$95.4


The inventories to


shipments ratio increased to 1.75 in December from
1.70 in November since inventories increased while
shipments decreased.


For the
average m
decrease o


monthly


months ending
change in


in December, the
new orders was a


f 1.3 percent compared with


increases


of 1.8 percent for the 3 months ending in September
and 0.4 percent for the 3 months ending in June.
The average monthly change in new orders for the


last 12 months has been an


increase


of 0.3 percent.


NEW ORDERS


orders


durable


goods


declined


billion or 4.0 percent from the November total of


$30.9


billion,


In the transportation industry,


new


orders declined $1.4 billion as both the aerospace
and automotive segments declined. New orders for


primary


metals


and nonelectrical


machinery


in-


dustries remained virtually unchanged while orders


for the electrical


machinery


industry


increased


$500 million, reflecting a significant increase in the
communications industry.

Among the supplementary series, household dura-
bles (formerly titled consumer durables) and ma-


chinery


and equipment


(producers


capital goods)


remained virtually unchanged. New orders for
defense products declined $200 millionto $1.9billion


in December from


$2.2 billion in November.


CHART 1)


Chart 1-


4-
-
-- -


I 11111 III


'ii. 'I


11111k LIII


easonalty Adjusted)
s Billions of Dolla5s*
,., -45


,.**
-- 'rv -

e Goods




*Semilog. scale
.,I i ,I1, 1. iE1 I -


1965 1966 1967 1968 1969

Chart 2- Manufacturers' Shipments (Seasonally Adjusted)
Billions of Doll





Total .^ "^




Durable Goods

_._-__-..- ,- _i--"
-----~~- -~~- -
,-- -- Nondurable Goods




*Semilog. scale
la i1 I rI i t if i .t i FI ft 1t 1 I u j i [ t h i ti 1 iiil L 11 11 ll i 1 if


ars*5
|85
- 80
- 75
- 70
- 65
- 60
55
50
45
40
35
30

25

20


15



10


r LJ


3m


New







2

SHIPMENTS


manufacturers'


decrease


amounted to $1.1


a decrease of $1.0 billion in shipments of durable
goods to $29.9 billion and a decrease of $100
million in shipments of nondurable goods industries
to $24.9 billion. The decline in shipments was


among


durable


goods


industries


but pronounced in transportation which declined $500
million to $7.4 billion from $7.9billion in November.
(SEE CHART 2)


UNFILLED ORDERS


Unfilled orders of durable goods at


$86.0 billion


declined $200 million or 0.3 percent from the end


industries partially offset declines in the transpor-
tation and primary metals industries. The durable
goods unfilled orders to shipments ratio increased to
3.17 in December from 3.08 in November. (SEE
CHART 3)


shipments


Chart 3-Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders (Seasonally Adiusted)
Billions of Dollars*


ill 1 1 1


Durable


1lA4i.i.i.I.I.A I I I


Chart 4- Total Inventory


(Seasonally


Adjusted)


Inventories


creased
billion


goods industries increased $3
billion at the end of December.


gains in durables occurred in the nf


Increases


finished


goods


onelectrical I


machinery and transportation industries. Among the
nondurable goods industries, the pattern was mixed.


supplies inventories were partially offset byadecline
in work-in-process inventories. (SEE CHART 4)


The figures on the durable goods industries in


report


supersede those issued earlier in the


advance report on durable g


is based


on a tabulation


limited to statistics on shipments, new orders, and
unfilled orders for a few broad industry categories.


present


reporting,


report


but the


t is based
estimates


on more


complete


are also considered


preliminary. Final figures will appear as his-
torical data in the report to be published for next
month.

For an explanation of terms used in this report
see appendix following table 5.


Inquiries
addressed


concerning


these


figures


should


to the U.S. Department of Commerce,


Bureau of the Census. Industry Division, Washington.


and materials


billion.


This was attributable to


widespread


of November.


Increases in backlog for the machinery


INVENTORIES


*Semilog. scale
i i i 1 1 1 1 1 i L 1


million


in November


in the durable goods industries in-


to $63.3 billion from $63.1
and those in the nondurable


) million to $32.6
The largest dollar


Billions of Dollars*


oods. The advance report
of early reports and is


Total


Durable Goods



Nda--Go--'
Nond-ab- Goos
Nondurable Goods


*Semilog. scale
l,,I,,~~~~I, ,l.l. ,, l


1965 1966 1967


g











OF MANUFACTURERS'


(Millions


of dollars)


Without seasonal Without seasonal
Seasonally adjusted adjustment Seasonally adjusted adjustment
adjustment' adjustment
Industry group Dec. Nov. Oct. Dec. Nov. Dec. Dec. Nov. Oct. Dec. Nov. Dec.
91969 1969r 1969r 1969' 1969r 1968 1969 1969r 1969 1969 1969r 1968


All manufacturing


Total,


Durable g
Stone,
Primary


excluding
industries,


industries:


transportation.....
total.............


and glass products...........


metals,


Blast furnaces


All other
Fabricated
Metal can
Machinery, I


Engines


prim


metal
s, bar


except


total............... .
, steel mills.............
ary metals................


products,
rels, and


electric


total.... ...,.
drums...,......
al, total.......


and turbines....................


Farm machinery


and equipment............


Construction, mining,


handling


and material


equipment.....................


Metalworking machinery..................


General


industrial


Electrical machinery,


Electrical
equipment


Household


Cobmmunicationr
Transportation


vehicle


Aircraft,
Instruments
All other di
Nondurable go


transmis


machinery............
total...............
sion and distribution


and industrial


appliances,


apparatus.....


including


Sequipment.................
equipment, total...........
s and parts................


missiles,
and relate


durable


Food and kindre


industry
d produ


and parts..........
d products..........
Is industries........
ies, total..........
lets, total..........


Meat products........... .................


Tobacco
Textile
Paper a:


products....................... ...
mill products....................


nd allied


Pulp, paper,


products,
tc........


Chemicals and allied
Industrial chemical
Petroleum and coal pr
Rubber and plastics p
All other nondurable



All manufacturing


Total,


Durable g
Primary


excluding


total..........


products,
Ls, except


total......
pigments.,..


.oducts...,.....4,....


products,


n.e.c......


Shipments


54,870
47,430
29,918
1,474
4,972
2,349
2,623


goods industries.....



industries:


transportation..... 17,875
total............. 29,664


oods industries,


metals,


Blast furnaces


Fabricated
Machinery,


Engines


total.....................
, steel mills.............
products............,,.


electrical,


and turbines ............ .. .,....


Construction,


mining,


and material


handling


Metalworking machinery..................


General in

Electrical m
Electrical
equipment
Household


dustrial

machinery,
transmit
and indu
appliance


Communication
Transportation


Aircraft,


All other

Norndurahble


mis


durable


machinery............

total....... ... .... .
ssion and distribution
mistrial apparatus.....


;s, inc


luding


equipment.................


equipment,
siles, and


total ... .. ....
parts...........


goods industries....,..


55,988
48,068
30,944
1,459
5,013
2,338
2,675
3,180
295
5,471
388
467

670
330
528

3,739

706

694
1,084
7,920
4,044
3,200
1,186
2,976
25,044
8,390
1,780
436
1,774
2,292
973
4,255
1,453
2,155
1,449
4,293


56,999
48,719
31,889
1,491
5,144
2,422
2,722
3,286
307
5,572
446
607

673
340
546
3,900

729

776
1,122
8,280
4,559
3,007
1,133
3,083
25,110
8,416
1,851
423
1,841
2,285
1,004
4,178
1,416
2,065
1,542
4,360


53,567
45,634
29,833
1,325
4,675
2,116
2,559
3,064
255

5,345
543
392

580
353
486
3,726

674

671
1,162
7,933
3,847
3,358
1,192
2,573
23,734
8,401
1,772
431
1,676
2,163
953
3,641
1,310
2,136
1,329
3,957


55,833
47,597
30,891
1,450
4,849
2,198
2,651
3,133
259
5,237
400
352

634
331
501
3,847

702

760
1,097
8,236
4,439
3,145
1,204
2,935
24,942
8,383
1,755
438
1,847
2,278
969
4,036
1,380
2,142
1,405
4,413


Total inventories


50,197
42,895
27,651
1,215
3,910
1,707
2,203
2,685
252
5,113
524
343

614
349
424

3,593

720

698
1,019
7,302
3,935
2,750
1,041
2,792
22,546
7,732
1,654
414
1,702
2,020
880
3,634
1,223
1,912
1,240
3,892


U __________


95,416
80,028
63,076
2,471
8,009
4,272
3,737
6,550
681
13,080
983
940

2,210
1,096
1,084
9,327

1,919

2,135
2,741
15,388
4,063
9,425


95,933
80,392
63,325
2,482
7,989
4,283
3,706
6,570
633
13,322
988
939

2,260
1,128
1,096
9,139

1,959

2,110
2,529
15,541
4,152
9,559
2,478
5,804
32,608
7,253
775
2,200
3,515
2,645
1,031
6,612
2,282
2,288
1,876
6,219


94,916
79,558
62,631
2,449
7,925
4,234
3,691
6,478
685
12,909
945
938


2,187
1,094
1,054
9,307

1,929

2,129
2,719
15,358
4,024
9,419
2,427
5,778
32,285
7,292
777
2,240
3,524
2,581
1,011
6,526
2,249
2,156
1,879
6,087


95,498
80,032
62,887
2,432
8,179
4,471
3,708
6,393
567
13,283
971
955

2,283
1,107
1,094
8,988

1,956

2,040
2,486
15,466
4,177
9,471
2,422
5,724
32,611
7,528
803
2,279
3,430
2,626
1,038
6,613
2,295
2,277
1,870
5,988


94,755
79,259
62,570
2,376
8,081
4,388
3,693
6,345
619
13,015
982
918

2,206
1,099
1,077
9,164

1,903

2,023
2,732
15,496
4,177
9,414
2,420
5,673
32,185
7,649
806
2,200
3,343
2,572
1,022
6,459
2,224
2,207
1,866
5,889


88,239
74,358
57,034
2,173
7s733
4,217
3,516
6,111
597
11,282
850
957

1,972
1,003
917


1,783

1,889
2,490
13,881
4,282
8,038
2,135
5,300
31,205
7,668
707
2,343
3,452
2,367
941

5,943
2,005
2,107
1,795
5,530


New orders Unfilled orders


55,948
47,813
30,894
4,751
2,190
3,276

5,453
389

692
341
510

3,619

688

622
1,111
8,135
3,279
5,660

25.O054


56,917
49,244
31,795
5,300
2,571
3,437
r r e


52,664
45,801
28,966
4,687
2,059
3,011

5,447
649

569
290
541

4,061

817

644
1,356
6,863
2,542
4,897

2R.1 R


54,981
47,016
30,041
4,707
2,095
3,069
5,194
424

627
322
478

3,577

708

618
1,030
7,965
2,798
5,529

924 Q40n


51,134
43,434
28,650
4,240
1,935
2,974
5,199
531

639
335
455

3,575

705

736
980
7,700
2,697
4,962

9 4R4d


1,b94

13,501

3,499


31,155
24,087
5,710

q n05


89,288
57,383
86,235
7,909
4,267
10,684
16,926
4,661


2,178
1,846
1,620

13,013

3,342

570
5,255
31,905
24,615
5,798

a ns


89,333
57,644
86,288
8,172
4,415
10,588
16,938
4,659

2,155
1,834
1,638

13,133

3,361

641
5,228
31,689
24,535
5,768

2 04..


87,760
56,633
84,788
7,509
3,783
10,337
16,910
4,780

2,095
1,772
1,648

13,391

3,468

524
5,564
31,127
24,039
5,514

9 q79


88,566
56,369
85,561
7,469
3,840
10,388
16,807
4,674

2,106
1,834
1,592

13,055

3,324

551
5,370
32,197
24,854
5,645

i nns;


85,938
52,303
82,946
6,147
2,976
9,734
14,578
4,036

1,657
1,735
1,439

13,097

3,301

547
5,520
33,635
26,804
5,755

9 Q09


radio


Motor


good


ods


54,611


metal
excep


It


4,796
2,022
3,238
5,483
618

624
267
576

4,125

823

679
1,412
6,736
2,508
5,286

4 4 947


radio


cnds indfinatrip


1 C


tt~1%,1.


2,434
5,817
32,340
7,302
761
2,233
3,447
2,614
1,037
6,566
2,249
2,197
1,871
6,110


t,


a


a













Table 2.--VALUE


OF MANUFACTURERS


SHIPMENTS,


INVENTORIES,


(Millions


AND ORDERS,

of dollars)


FOR MARKET


CATEGORIES


AND SUPPLEKENTARY


SERIES


Industry


All manufacturing


Durable


goods industries


group


industries,

, total....


Nondurable goods industries, total.


Industry groups
categories:


total


. .
*..... .


arranged by market


Home goods and apparel...
Consumer staples.........
Equipment and defense pro
automotive..............
Automotive equipment.....
Construction materials, s
intermediate products...


* I I * *4*
.... .. ,, ..... .
ducts, except


supplies, and
...................*4*4A .


Other materials and supplies and


intermediate products..

Supplementary series:2


Household


durable goods


industries3......


Machinery and equipment industries......


Defense
Defense


products
products


All manufactu


Durable


goods indus


industries told series)


(new series)>...




ring industries,

tries, total....


Nondurable goods industries,


Industry


groups


arranged


categories:
Home goods and apparel
Consumer staples......


* ....... A




total..


total.

market


* I .A ........
*. ....I *. I *..


Equipment and defense products


automotive............
Automotive equipment....


, except


* I A I A A *
* I. A I 1*.**~*~ A A


Construction materials, supplies,


intermediate products......
Other materials and supplies
intermediate products......


Supplementary


series:


Household durable goods


Machiner
Defense


and equipment


products


Defense products inew


and
A A........ A


industries3......
industries......


stories (old series).
series)*.........


Seasonall


y adjusted


Nov.
r
1969


Without seasonal
adjustment1


Shipments


54,870

29,918
24,952



4,463
10,960

9,014
4,324

4,426

21,683


1,962
6,163
4,436
2,169


56.999


53.567


50.197


Seasonally


adjusted


Without


seasonal


adjustment


Total inventories


95.933


95.416


95.498


88.239


New orders Unfilled orders


54,611


55.948


56,917

31,795
25,122


52.664


54,981


51,134


89,051


89,288


2,000


47,833


10,888

28,567


1,625
24,523
30,390
20,362


89,333


87,760

84,788


88,566


1,979


48,000


10,459

28,128


85,938


*Durin
figures o
in these


1968 manufacturers in ordnance,


in shipments, orders,
new defense series,.


communications, aircraft


and total inventories of work perform


and aircraft parts, and
d for the Department of


Since there is no historic data available to develop separate


shipbuilding
Defense. Th


industries
e results of


began to provide


aggregate


these reports are included


seasonal factors for these reporters, the data


have


been seasonally adjusted using the factors


of these industries.


PPreliminary.


tShipments and new orders adjusted for


trading-day


and calendar-month variations;


the separate industry


unfilled orders and inventories


as of end of month,.


supplementary


series are regroupings


categories as follows:


Household


durable goods


industries


- Household


furniture; kitchen articles and pottery;:


cutlery,


handtoo ls,


and hardware;


household


appliances;
Machinery and equipment industries Machinery, e
machinery (


shipbuilding


ophthalmic


xcept


goods,


watches,


and clocks; and miscellaneous personal goods.


electrical (excluding farm machinery and


equipment and machine shops),


electrical


excluding household appliances, communication equipment and electronic components),


and repairing, and railroad and street car equipment.


Defense


products


industries


(old series)


- Based on reports for companies classified in the communication equipment,


aircraft


parts, and ordnance industries.


of nondefense
industry.)


Defense


products


(new series)


- Based


on separate report


s


ordnance, communications,
the old series in that it


ordnance, communications,


work in these


on defense
complete
includes


complete


industries


(Thus,


complete


this series includes significant


and omits defense work performed


work filed by large defense contractors in the
aircraft, aircraft parts, and shipbuilding. Th
defense activity in shipbuilding and excludes n


aircraft, and aircraft parts,


aircraft,
amounts


in the shipbuilding

following industries:


us, it


differs


from


ondefense work in


The data are comparable to those pub-


lished annually in the MA-175,


3This
modified


series


was previously entitled "Consumer durable


Shipments of


goods industries.


Defense-Oriented Industries, for the specified industries.


While data content has


not been changed,


the title has been


that it does not include automobiles.


Ig














Table 3.--MANUFACTURERS'


(Based


on seasonally


adjusted


Item and industry


Shipments:
All manufacturing


Durable
Nondurab


group


industries.


goods industries, to
tle goods industries,


'tal
to


........
...... ..
tal .....


Total inventories:


All manufacturing


industries.....


New orders:


All manufacturing


Durable
Nondurab


Unfi 1 led
Durable


industries.....


goods industries, to
tle goods industries,


tal....
total.


orders:


goods


industries


total.


. S


Month-to-month


-2.0


+0.5


-0.3


-1.8


+0.5


-0.1


1969


+1.0


+0.7


-0.1


Average


monthly


3 months


-0.9


+0.6


-0.2


+0.7


+0.2


rates of change


12 months


+1.0


+0.7


+0.3


Average,


+1.4


+0.7


+1.2


1963-1968


Average
decline


-1.1


-0.2


-0.7


Table 4.--RATIO


OF MANUFACTURERS'


INVENTORIES


TO SHIPMENTS


AND UNFILLED


ORDERS


TO SHIPMENTS


BY INDUSTRY


(Based


on seasonally


adjusted


Inventories shipments ratio Unfilled orders shipments ratio1
Inventories shipments ratio ots ako
(months' backlog)
Industry group
Dec. Nov. Oct. Dec. Dec. Nov. Oct. Dec.
1969 1969r 1969r 1968 1969p 1969r 1969r 1968


All manufacturing industries, total.................. 1.75 1.70 1.67 1.72 2.63 2.57 2.52 2.78
Durable goods industries, total..... ......................... 2.12 2.04 1.96 2.07 3.17 3.08 3.03 3.38
Stone, clay, and glass products......................... 1.68 1.69 1.64 1.64 (NA) (NA) (NA) {NA)
Primary metals......................................................... 1.61 1.60 1.54 1.82 1.56 1.58 1.59 1.52
Fabricated metals .......... ................ ................ 2.07 2.06 1.97 2.25 3.73 3.70 3.55 4.06
Machinery, except electrical........................... 2.54 2.39 2.32 2.26 3.27 3.09 3.04 2.95
Electrical machinery.........,..................... 2.51 2.49 2.39 2.44 3.71 3.48 3.37 3.76
Transportation equipment.. ........ .............. ....... 2.09 1.94 1.85 2.04 6.00 5.83 5.81 7.52
Instruments and related products......................... 2.21 2.05 2.14 2.22 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
Nondurable goods industries, total......................... 1.31 1.29 1.29 1.31 0.45 0.45 0.44 0.48

Food and kindred products................................ 0.84 0.87 0.87 0.93 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Tobacco products................... ....................... 5.02 5.12 5.30 5.38 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Textile mill products................................... 1.98 1.94 1.91 1.96 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
Paper and allied products............................... 1.17 1.14 1.13 1.13 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
Chemicals and allied products........................... 1.62 1.54 1.56 1.46 (X) (X) (X) (X)
Petroleum and coal products.............................. 1.07 1.02 1.04 1.10 (X) (X) () (x)
Rubber and plastics products, n.e.c...................... 1.36 1.29 1.22 1.40 () () () (X


(NA) Not
1Excludes


available,
the following


vehicle assembly
rubber and plastic


operations;
cs products,


Preliminary.


industries


with


foods and related


rRevised.
no unfilled


products;


(x)~
(X) Nt
orders:
tobacco


ot applicable.
Wooden containers; gl
; apparel and related


ass containers;


products;


metal


chemicals;


barrels


petroleum


and drums;


motor


and coal products;


data)


data)


GROUP












BY STAGE OF FABRICATION,B


(Millions


of dollars)


Without seasonal Without seasonal
Seasonally adjusted WtuSeasonally adjusted
adjustment adjustment
Industry group ---- ---
Dec. Nov.r Oct. Dec. Nov. Dec. Dec. Nov.r Oct. Dec.. Nov. Dec.
1969p 1969 1969 1969 1969r 1968 1969 1969 1969 1969r 1969 1968

Total Materials and supplies

All manufacturing industries, total.. 95,933 95,416 94,916 95,498 94,755 88,239 29,426 29,157 29,152 29,652 29,184 28,565
Durable goods industries, total............ 63,325 63,076 62,631 62,887 62,570 57,034 17,616 17,194 17,104 17,660 17,246 16,769
Stone, clay, and glass products.......... 2,482 2,471 2,449 2,432 2,376 2,173 778 770 783 789 769 704
Primary metals.......................... 7,989 8,009 7,925 8,179 8,081 7,733 2,884 2,771 2,802 2,974 2,915 2,961
Machinery (electrical and nonelectrical). 22,461 22,407 22,216 22,271 22,179 19,701 5,513 5,456 5,389 5,498 5,394 4,816
Transportation equipment................. 15,541 15,388 15,358 15,466 15,496 13,881 3,368 3,078 3,038 3,363 3,125 3,398
All other durable goods industries....... 14,852 14,801 14,683 14,539 14,438 13,546 5s073 5,119 5,092 5,036 5,043 4,890
Nondurable goods industries, total......... 32,608 32,340 32,285 32,611 32,185 31,205 11,810 11,963 12,048 11,992 11,938 11,796
Chemicals and allied products............ 6,612 6,566 6,526 6,613 6,459 5,943 2,235 2,279 2,269 2,246 2,254 2,096
Petroleum and coal products.............. 2,288 2,197 2,156 2,277 2,207 2,107 506 499 504 499 491 444
Rubber and plastics products, n.e.c...... 1,876 1,871 1,879 1,870 1,866 1,795 600 612 599 589 607 562
All other nondurable goods industries.... 21,832 21,706 21,724 21,851 21,653 21,360 8,469 8,573 8,676 8,658 8,586 8,694

Work in process Finished goods

All manufacturing industries, total.. 34,662 34,718 34,556 34,263 34,598 30,821 31,845 31,541 31,208 31,583 30,973 28,853
Durable goods industries, total............ 29,462 29,660 29,494 29,173 29,575 26,067 16,247 16,222 16,033 16,054 15,749 14,198
Stone, clay, and glass products......... 416 408 405 387 376 347 1,288 1,293 1,261 1,256 1,231 1,122
Primary metals........................... 2,708 2,779 2,712 2,768 2,761 2,557 2,397 2,459 2,411 2,437 2,405 2,215
Machinery (electrical and nonelectrical). 10,614 10,650 10,542 10,497 10,626 9,380 6,334 6,301 6,285 6,276 6,159 5,505
Transportation equipment................ 10,559 10,742 10,749 10,521 10,810 9,134 1,614 1,568 1,571 1,582 1,561 1,349
All other durable goods industries....... 5,165 5,081 5,086 5,000 5,002 4,649 4,614 4,601 4,505 4,503 4,393 4,007
Nondurable goods industries, total......... 5,200 5,058 5,062 5,090 5,023 4,754 15,598 15,319 15,175 15,529 15,224 14,655
Chemicals and allied products............ 982 940 950 979 937 908 3 395 3,347 3,307 3,388 3,268 2,939
Petroleum and coal products.............. 542 506 492 525 500 442 1,240 1,192 1,160 1,253 1,216 1,221
Rubber and plastics products, n.e.c...... 309 318 323 308 318 333 967 941 957 973 941 900
All other nondurable goods industries.... 3,367 3.294 3,297 3,278 3,268 3,071 9,996 9,839 9,751 9,915 9,799 9,595


rPreliminary,
Revised.


GROUP










Appendix


The following is a description of the survey and


definitions used.


the meaning
represent ai


These are provided to


of the


items


revisions from


clarify


involved and do not


those definitions


previously employed.

DESCRIPTION OF THE SURVEY


EXPLANATION OF TERMS

Value of Shipments--Shipments in the monthly
survey are equivalent to value of shipments as


reported


which


are received


receivable net selling values, f.o.b.


discounts


plant, after


and allowances and excluding freight


charges and excise taxes.


Included in shipments


The Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories,
and Orders survey provides monthly figures that
are comparable to the annual totals published each
year in the annual survey of manufactures (ASM).
The ASM is based on a sample of approximately
60,000 manufacturing establishments drawn from
the 5-year census universe of about 310,000estab-


lishments.


the ASM,


each


manufacturing


establishment provides data on employment, pay-


rolls,


shipments,


expenditures,
selected items
information onr


cost


of materials,


capital


and inventories as well as other
. The establishments do not provide


1


unfilled


orders or new orders.


Since the ASM is establishment based, it provides
data for each of the 425 manufacturing industries
in the Standard Industrial Classification System
(SIC) and area data for industry groups.


are the value of all products sold,


transferred


to other plants of the same company, or shipped
on consignment.

Shipments also include receipts of establish-
ments in the industry for contract work performed
for others, resales, receipts for miscellaneous
activities such as the sale of scrap and refuse;
value of installation and repair work performed by
employees of the plant; and value of research and
development performed at the plant. In the aircraft
industry and shipbuilding, the value of work done
in a given year varies considerably from the value
of shipments because of the long lead time between
the input of the materials and labor and the ship-
ments of the completed aircraft or ship. In the


annual survey,


therefore, the value of work done


The monthly


survey


M3-1


does not provide


information at the complete SIC industry detail
because of the smaller size of the reportingpanel
and the fact that most companies cannot provide


shipments,


inventories, and orders data monthly


for individual establishments.

The monthly reporting panel consists of
approximately 5,000 reporting units and includes
virtually all companies with 1,000 or more em-
ployees and a sample of the smaller ones. The


reporting unit
operations of


typically


comprises


the entire


a company although many of the


during the year is requested rather than the value
of shipments.

The value of shipments figures developed from
the ASM contain duplication at the all manufac-
turing and industry group levels since the products
of some industries are used as materials by other
industries within the industry group. With the ex-
ception of motor vehicles, it is not significant at


the 4-dig
industry
industries


it


group


level.


Since


the M3-1


categories typically are groupings of
3, this duplication is significant for the


all manufacturing, durable goods and nondurable
goods categories and the various market groups.


larger diversified companies file separate divi-
sional type reports for their operations in different
industries.

Most of the reporting units include mixed
industry activity even within the broad industry
categories of the monthly survey. The survey
methodology assumes that the month-to-month
changes of the reporting units classified in each
industry category represent effectively the month-
to-month movements of the establishments in the
SIC industries which make up the category. Thus,
the monthly reports are used to update the ASM


estimates


using


a link relative of matched


The significance


of the duplication


within


specific M3-1 industry groups varies depending on
the 4-digit industry composition of these groups.
It is most pronounced in a few highly integrated
industry areas such as primary metals and motor
vehicles and parts.

Since most monthly reports are for the entire
company or major divisions rather than establish-
ments, the companies are requested to report net
sales, i.e., total company billings after discounts


and allowances.


Companies which file divisional


reports are requested to treat transfers from one
division of the company to another as if they were




UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA

3 6Il28l589 4458llll
3 1262 08589 4458
8


definition


of shipments


in the monthly reports


differs from that used in the annual establishment


reports,
i


it is assumed that the month-to-month


changes min company sales in the industry are
representative of the month-to-month shipments
of the establishments in the industry.


* 1


New Orders Received and Unfilled Orders--
Orders as reported in the monthly survey are net


of cancellations during the month.


They include


orders received during the period and also filled
during the period as wellas those orders received


for future delivery.


They also include the net


sales value of contract change documents which
increase or decrease the sales value of the unfilled


Inventories--End-of-month inventories in the


monthly survey are


identical


end-of-year inventories in the


respondents


in definition to the
ASM. In the ASM,


are asked to report inventories of


individual establishments at approximate current
cost if feasible; otherwise, "at book values." Since
different methods of inventory valuation are used
(LIFO, FIFO, etc.), the definition of the aggregate
inventories for establishments in an industry is


precise.


inventories


figures


on the change


from one period to the next are of


greater significance than the actual aggregates.


Inventories


cation:


are reported


(a) finished goods;


materials,


inventories.


In using


by stage of fabri-
(b) work in process;


and other
y stage of


supplies,


inventories


fabrication at the all manufacturing and 2-digit
industry levels as well as for the durable and non-


orders to which they relate.


Orders include only


those supported by binding legal documents such as


signed contracts, or letter contracts.


In case of


letter contracts the full amount of the sales value
is included if the parties are in substantialagree-


ment


specific
cluded.


on the amount; otherwise, only the funds


lly


authorized


to be expended are in-


The respondent is instructed to deduct


the sales value of partial or complete cancellation
of existing orders.
Unfilled orders include orders as defined above
that have not yet passed through the sales account.
Generally, unfilled orders at the end of the
reporting period are equal to unfilled orders at
the beginning of the period plus net new orders
received less net sales.


While both new orders and unfilled orders are
used in reviewing individual company reports for
consistency, only unfilled orders are estimated


durable goods sectors,


it should be noted that a


directly in the tabulated totals.


New orders are


finished


product of one industry may be a raw


derived


from


the shipments plus net change in


material for another industry at the next stage of


fabrication.


Insofar as the durable and nondurable


goods sectors and also the 2-digit industry groups


contain


industries


successive


stages


processing, the same type of commodity may be
included under different inventory categories in
the aggregate statistics.


unfilled orders for each industry category. This
procedure is followed for seasonally adjusted data
as well as for the unadjusted data. Shipments and
unfilled orders are seasonally adjusted independ-
ently. Seasonally adjusted new orders are derived
from seasonally adjusted shipments and sea-
sonally adjusted unfilled orders.


USGcHM-DC


Current Industrial Reports


Series


113-1


1


*