|
li~
EETPOT
Released
ary
P.M.
14,
ET
ATOES
A' .
1983
Crop
Reporting
Board*
Statistical Reporting
Service
ESTIMATED
POTATO
STOCKS
U.S. Department
of Agriculture
Washington, D.C.
20250
POTATO STOCKS
UP 6 PERCENT
February
million
percent
stocks
metric
from
48 percent
75 percent
, 1983
tons)
last
united
a year
potato
February and
or 49 percent
are russets,
stocks
are estimated
major
percent
: produce
the total
sto
percent whites
fall pi
t above
action i
cks in
and 3
reducing
twd year
n these
the 11
percent
145 mil
States.
s ago.
15 State
objective
reds.
lion
Thi
The
(6.57
February
compared with
yield
States
In
percent
totaled
years
percent,
three
above
Eastern
a year
14.9 million cwt,
ago.
respectively,
States,
York
from
estimated holdings
percent
and
last
percent
above
short of
Pennsylvania
year.
last
stock;
totaled
years
20.9 million cwt,
Main
S
February but 4 percent
s are up 29 percent .
torage
above
(Comments continued on
page 4)
FALL
(FOR
POTATOES:
15 STATES
PRODUCTION
STOCKS
ESTIMATING POTATO STOCKS)
Mlf Clt,
_ ~ _. __
:**
en
Ix
I
S -- a Sen S a nan -~
NOTE:
Stocks are defined as the quantity remaining in storage for all, purposes
and uses,
the date o
Including shrinkage and waste and other losses
f each report. Sales of fall potatoes for all
account for about 90 percent of the total fall production
loss and home use account for the remaining
10 percent.
>47l"E
that occur after ;
purposes generally
. Shrinkage and
-as-ann -f**Irl-a-- ---- a- n
1. FALL POTATOES: DECEMBER 1, JANUi
TOTAL STOCKS, AND COMPARABLE PRODUCT!
: PRODUCTION
DEC 1
JAN 1
1
.1976
1977
242,390
247,686
278,679
266,422
294,978
295,421
311,981
285,060
255,691
286,245
294,082
155,190
154,890
183,850
181,720
198,630
202,550
219,850
200,820
171,730
192,810
201,775
132,050
131,600
160,100
156,220
172,230
175,300
193,520
176,020
146,610
163,180
173,500
ARY 1, FEBRUARY 1, MARCH I, APRIL 1,
ON FOR 15 STATES ESTIMATING POTATO STOCKS
FEB 1 MAR 1 APR 1 : MAYi
,000 CWT
105.690 82,510 57.860
105,360
131,480
129,710
142,030
80,460
102,963
102,850
112,830
119,850
132,570
121,720
97,280
111,280
55,465
75,217
70,970
81,130
88,680
99,250
92,550
72,460
81,870
nafla a||-a- ------:-:-* r-WI--------- ---------|--4 --l- a H^ft|| | -i ||
TABLE
POTATOES USED FOR PROCESSING 1/,
STORAGE
:.- 14-
: TO
: FEB 1
STATE
EIGHT STATES,
: MAR l
1981 AND 1982 CROPS
*APRi1
: MAY 1
as,'
IDAHO AND MALHEUR
MAINE 2/
WASH AND OTHER
AREAS. ORES
OTHER STATES 3/
TOTAL
1981-82
1982-83
1981-82
1982-83
5,088
5,651
41,683
38,896
6,329
7,135
51,749
48,710
26,000
23,395
3,450
3,675
24,940
23,685
7,743
8,625
62,133
59,380
31,205
4,135
29,175
9,385
73,900
36,840
5,195
33,855
ii,ll
87,001
42,270
5,975
38,095
12,750
99,090
Th~
64,830
59,535
44,446
bUO IS"R
ENTIRE
SEASON
56,585 "
47,325
15, 769
127,004
^._ -. A......^ ^ .-_:|Uj jJ ':.jjvju .f^ K K K
^^ ^ ^'^ ^ ^ ^ l^ ^ W'P^PBfB'W '^)! K KKK K
/N 'i^^
K' K
ENTIREK
SEASON^
56,585WIlWIIlfl ..|:' Ii
7 3 25^^jJ.....^c .WW X ^SSS^Si^S
ff- H^K ^-Jl"^^ K KKKKK K
*.. N'.t J X ..::*:: ::::: -- ::**:* **:*
4 7 3 25* m Jf H *:*:::::::*:::**:::*::*:::*:*
15,769 : JE-:** ^K"
127,004fkw *II^.:
TOTAL QUANTITY RECEIVED AND USED FOR PROCESSING REGARDLESS OF THE STATE IN I
WHICH THE POTATOES
TABLE
AND MAY 1
1/
* *
I
TABLE 3. POTATOES: PRODUCTION AND TOTAL STOCKS OF FALL POTATOES HELD BY GROWERS,
PROCESSORS, AND LOCAL DEALERS ON FEBRUARY 1, 1982 AND FEBRUARY 1, 1983
CROP OF 1981 : CROP OF 1982
------- --- a
STATE
-------- ----- -
ft*F
: PRODUCTION :TOTAL STOCKS
: :FEB 1, 1982
EB 1 STOCKS: : :FEB 1 STOCKS
AS % OF : PRODUCTION :TOTAL STOCKS: AS % OF
PRODUCTION : :FEB 1, 1983 : PRODUCTION
------- ------------ -
ft
9
1,000 CWT
PERCENT
* 1,000 CWT
PERCENT
CALIF
COLO
IDAHO
MAINE
MICH
MINN
MONT
NEBR
NY-LI
UPSTATE
15 STATE TOTAL
286,245
7,585
12,600
89,890
26,500
8,085
11,520
1,924
2,147
'.4,995
7,020
17,250
2,328
21,105
5,758
52,800
22,575
294,082
137,120
144,950
assist
users
estimates, the "Root Mean
been calculated. This I
preliminary estimate and th
squared percentage deviati
average becomes statistical
concerning expected errors
season estimate, assuming
evaluating
reliability
February
, 1983
potato
stocks
tuare Error", a statistical measure based on past performance, has
computed by expressing the deviations between the February 1
final estimate as a percent of the final estimate and averaging the
is for the 1963-82 twenty-year period. The square root of this
, the "Root Mean Square Error". Probability statements can be made
In the current preliminary estimate relative to the final end of
aet factors affecting this year's estimate are not different from
those influencing recent years's preliminary estimate.
The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1, 1983 potato stocks estimate is 3.0 percent.
This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current estimate of 145 million hundredweight
will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 3.0 percent or approximately 4.35
million hundredweight. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the
difference will not exceed 5.2 percent or approximately 7.54 million hundredweight.
During the past 10 years,
estimate averaged 3.46 million
was 0.39 million hundredweight.
fl .\A -_J L-j ~_ 1% .. a .. -_
the difference between the February 1 preliminary and final
hundredweight. The largest deviation was 6.17 and the smallest
The preliminary February 1 estimate was below the final estimate
UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
3 1262 08860 4730
TABLE
FALL
POTATOES:
FEBRUARY
STOCKS
, 1983,
BY TYPE AS PERCENT OF
MAJOR STATES
TOTAL STOCKS,
POTATO TYPES
------ ---------- ----- ------- ---- ----1--
REDS
WHITES
RUSS
ETS : TOTAL
ETS :TOTAL
---- -------------------------------------------- ----- -- ------------- ---- ---- -I I II I I r
PER CE NT
COLO
IDAHO 1
MAINE 2
MICH 4/
MINN
OREG
WASH
STATE
TOTAL
-* II~I aIIIIII aIIII ---- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- -- -- -- -
INCLUDES SMALL
INCLUDES SMALL
INCLUDES
SMALL
PUBLISHED
QUANTITIES OF WHITE
QUANTITIES OF REDS,
AMOUNT OF RUSSETS,
TO AVOID DISCLOSURE
LESS
THAN 5 PERCENT OF TOTAL
LESS tTHAN 5
PERCENT OF
LESS THAN 5 PERCENT OF
TOTAL.
TOTAL.
INDIVIDUAL OPERATIONS.
(Continued from page
Stocks
greater t
million
percent.
and North
han
:wt
year
I up
Minnesota poti
Dakota stocks
Central
States
and 48 percent
percent;
ato stocks
of 9.0 mil
Michigan
at 7.0
lion cwt
totaled 28.
above 1981.
holdings
mil lol
are 4
percent
million
Wisconsin
3.8
the
cwt,
stocks
million
same
lower.
percent
are up
last
year
February
years ag
During t
damaged
cattle (
potential
Western
1, 1983,
o. Idaho
:he past I
potatoes
or dumped
States
5 pe
stock
month,
from t
onto
cent
Idaho
heir
1/2 percent of
not be marketable due
normal
. Fresh
hi pments
held
more
an estimated
than
.0 milili
farmers
cellars
fields
a year
on cwt
removed
95.4
are up
million
potatoes
percent
4 percent
substantial
The majority
Growers
the potatoes
frost damage.
are also ahead of
with
remaining
Potato
last
potatoes
more
U
hi
from
quantitii
discards
n storage
storage on
Fe
hrinkage continues
year.
than
last
is of
were
year.
frost
project
bruary
to ru
i, may
n above
appearance
million cwt,
3.0 million
farms,
with 1
February
virtually the
cwt of
potatoes
discarded without
19.5
totaled
million
28.6 million cwt
same
grad
. 1983
as the
same
e 15
perlo
major
dumped during grading, fe
ing and lost to shrinkage
year earlier.
compared with
Disappearance
a year
ed
million cwt
States
.ago.
to live
(moi
for
tock
sture los
the month
for January
total
includes
on potato
compared
f January
1982.
STATE
IB~
IEl
r 1982.
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