Potato stocks

*^ *^ 6?'


Potato Stee


Crop
Reporting
Board


Statistical Reporting
Service


United States
Department of
Agriculture
Washington, D.C. 20250


___________I -


RELEASED:


February


1984


POTATO


I 'tJDVIC


LID


.F.A.S. Unv. of Florida
-^i. ^ u i v i i i n d


February


tons),
Current
compared


percent
objective


iown


stocks
with
russet
e yield


, 1984,


percent


account
50 perc
, 22 p


potato


from


ent a
srcent


stocks
a year
percent
this ti


white,


totaled


earlier


fall


me


last


million


and 2 percent
production in t


year


percent


red,


variety,
based on


States.


million


below


yea


b survey
potatoes


data


continued


from


metric
rs ago.
States
were 75
the 11


on page


FALL


(FOR


POTATO


STATES


PRODUCTION


ESTIMATING


AND


POTATO


TOCK


STOCK


NIL CUT.



251
S



2151


151



51
I
I.











*NOTE:
*


Stocks ar
and uses,


e defined


as the quantity remaining in storage for all purposes


including shrinkage and waste and other


the date of each report.


Sales of


account for about 90 percent of the total


loss and home


use account for the remaining


losses


that occur after


fall potatoes for all purposes generally*


fall production.
g 10 percent.


Shrinkage and


TABLE 1.


AND MAY


FALL POTATOES:


DECEMBER


, JANUARY 1, FEBRUARY


TOTAL STOCKS, AND COMPARABLE PRODUCTION FOR


15 STATES


, MARCH 1, APRIL 1,
ESTIMATING POTATO STOCK


: PRODUCTION


DEC 1


JAN I


FEB 1


MAR 1


APR 1


MAY 1


000 CWT


247.686


295,421
311,981
285,060
255,691
286,245
296,657
277.769


TABLE


154,890
183,850
181,720
198,630
202,550
219,850
200,820
171,730
192,810
206,175
187.100


- POTATOES


1,600
0,100
6,220
2.230


175,300
193,520
176.020


161,210


USED FOR PROCESSING


131,480
129,710
142,030
147,930
162,980
147,910
121,565
137,120
149,560
134.655


EIGHT


80,460
102,963
102,850
112,830
119,850
132,570
121,720
97,280
111,280
121.540


STATES


70,970
81,130
88,680
99,250
92,550
72,460
81,870
89,120


AND 1983


64,830
59,535
44,446
50,660
56.875


CROPS


STATE


IDAHO AND MALHEUR


: STORAGE
: SEASON


: 1982-83
: 1983-84


DEC I


14,33
15,75


: TO
: JAN


TO
FEB 1I


18,64
20.44


: TO
: MAR


28.535


: APR 1


34,480


S* MAYl


ENTIRE
EASON


39.715


53.395


MAINE


1982-83
1983-84


1,915
1.120


2,800
1.515


4,400


5,230


6,010


7,450


WASH AND OTHER


AREAS


OREG


: 1982-83
: 1983-84


16,840
16.245


20,130
19,920


23,685
23.690


27.870


32.100


36.365


45,500


OTHER STATES


3/ 4/


10.220


: 1982-83
: 1983-84


12,170


13.820


16,405


TOTAL


: 1982-83
: 1983-84


38,740
37.425


48,710
47,885


71,025


83,980


95.910


122,750










TABLE 3. POTATO
PROCESSORS,


: PRODUCTION AND TOTAL STOCKS OF FALL POTATOES HELD BY GROWERS,
AND LOCAL DEALERS ON FEBRUARY 1, 1983 AND FEBRUARY 1, 1984


CROP OF 1982


CROP OF 1983


STATE


: PRODUCTION


:TOTAL
:FEB 1,


:FEB 1 STOCKS
: AS % OF
PRODUCTION


: PRODUCTION


:TOTAL
:FEB 1


:FEB 1 STOCKS
: AS % OF
: PRODUCTION


1,000 CWT


PERCENT


,000 CWT


PERCENT


CALIF
COLO
IDAHO
MAINE
MICH
MINN
MONT
NEBR
NY LI
UPSTATE
N DAK
OHIO
OREG
PA


1,300
2,850
1,600
7,500


WASH


15 STATE TOTAL


296.657


149,560


277,769


34,655


assist


users


aluating the


estimates, the "Root Mean Square Err
been calculated. This is computed
preliminary estimate and the final est


squared
average


made


percentage
becomes, s


deviations


statistically,


concerning expected


errors


season estimate, assuming that
those influencing recent years'


for ti


'I


reliability
a statistics


by exp
imate as
he 1964-8


measure


dressing tne
a percent of
3 twenty-year


February
based


deviations
the final
period.


potato


on past


stocks


performance,


between the February 1
estimate and averaging the


square


root


the "Root Mean Square Error". Probability statements
in the current preliminary estimate relative to the final
factors affecting this year's estimate are not differ


er


can be
end-of-
it from


preliminary estimates.


he "Root Mean Square Error" for the
means that chances are 2 out of 2
not be above or below the final e


-s


million hundredweight. Chances are 9
difference will not exceed 5.3 percent or


February 1
that the


;timate
out
appro;


, 1984 potato stocks estimate is
current estimate of 135 million


by more than 3.1 percent or appr
of 10 (90 percent confidence le'
ximately 7.14 million hundredweight.


3.1 percent.
hundredweight
oximately 4.17
vel) that the


During
estimate a


the p
averaged


ast 1
3.87


J years,
million


was 0.39 million hundred
estimate 9 out of the past


the difference
hundredweight.


Iweight.
10 years.


between t
The largest


preliminary


he February
deviation


February


1 preliminary
was 6.17 and


estimate


was


below


y and final
the smallest
w the final


>






tRICLUtTUgAL


UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
111118III 1IIIt11111111 111 iii0 1i
3 1262 08860 5661


TABLE


FALL


POTATOES


FEBRUARY


STOCKS


, 1984,


TYPE AS


MAJOR


LIBPERCENT OF
PERCENT OF


TOTAL


TOCKS,


STATES


POTATO


TATE


TYPES


WHITES


TOTAL


--- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
PERCENT


COLO
IDAHO
MAINE


MICH 4/
MINN


OREG
PA 2
WASH


TATE


TOTAL


INCLUDES
INCLUDES
INCLUDES
NOT PUBL


SMALL
SMALL
SMALL


ISHED


QUANTITIE
QUANTITIE
AMOUNT OF


AVOID


WHITE


USSETS,
CLOSURE


THAN


THAN
THAN


INDIVIDUAL


PERCENT


PERCENT
PERCENT


TOTAL.


TOTAL.
TOTAL.


OPERATIONS


Eastern


year


were
and
from


Penn


States


tock


d 8 percent
percent; Nev


ylvania


torage


have


below


York


fallen


c years
stocks a


18.0


3.00


accounting


million


Maine


cwt,


tock


million


.70 million


year.


were
were


percent
3 million


down


down


below
n cwt


percent;
percent


Central


State


February,


from


thou


potatoes
Michigan


million


, ranging


cwt, a
nearly
from a


stocks


percent


gain oT
double


percent


totaling


above


percent


The r
decline


million


years
from


manning
in Minn


were down


North


last
4
esot


year,
States
a to 2


Dakota


while
each


4 percent
storage


Ohio
held


percent


fewer


fewer


six We


percent
million
9.60 mi
million


regi


from
cwt


million


were
cwt


stern
year
off
were


States,


potato


percent


3 percent
down 15 D


decline


tered more


tock


than


7
year


stock


below 1i


from
percent.


last


totaled


year


year


Colorado


percent


million


ago.
level


cellar


hington
Percent,


Idaho


cwt,


tock


Oregon
account


down


46.0


holding
d for


California


both


respectively.


appearance


potato


States


from


harve


February