Poultry and egg situation

-/1 0T r .. .. .
FOR RELEASE

TH E9, AUG. 12. A. M.


SIT UAT I ON

BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

PES-137 JULY-AUGUST 1949



EGGS: MONTHLY SUPPLIES AND PRICES,
JULY 1946 TO DATE
DOZENS I I I
(MILLIONS SUPPLY, BASED ON U.S. FARM PRODUCTION
Government purchases
600 Eggs used for hatching
Net commercial storage movement


500
Effective
supply
400



300



200
CENTS
PER AVERAGE U.S.
DOZEN FARM PRICE

50



40



30
JULY JAN. JULY JAN JULY JAN. JULY JAN.
1946 1947 1948 1949


U.S DEPARTMENT OF AGAICU.TURE

Seasonal changes in the supply of eggs
are reflected in changes in the price of eggs.
Commercial cold storage movements help to
reduce the seasonal swings of supply. Also,
hatching requirements are at a peak in the
spring months of high production. Despite
these stabilizing influences, and the con-


NEC 47jal.X C-igA CF AG4.C-Tu, A. ECCF IfC.

centration of Government price support activities
in the lo% price period of the year, the prices
farmers receive for eggs probably show greater
seasonal variation than the prices of any other
farm commodity contributing as substantially
to eross farm income.






JULY*AUGUST 1949


2 -

The Poultry and Egg Situation at a Glance


: Unit verMonth: 1948 14
: Unit :Month: 1938-47: 1949


Comments on current situation


; Eg

Farm production .....................: Mil. doz. :June 391

Average number of layers on farms ...: Million : do. 308

Rate of lay per hen .................: Number : do. 15

Apparent civilian per capital
disappearance ....................: do. : do. 27

Frozen egg production .............. : Mil. lb. : do. -

Dried egg production ................: do. : do. -

Prices received by farmers .......... :Ct. per coz.:July 29

Prices received by farmers as a :
percentage of parity ...............: Percent i do. 93

Retail price (BAE) .................. Ct.per ooz.Ljune 37
I I
Ess-feed ratio ......................: Lb.feed :July 11
I i
Stocks: : :

Shell ............................. :1,000 cases: do. 7,651
I I
Frozen ............................ : do. : du. 6,194

Dried .............................: Mil. lb. : do. ---

Chicks hatched by commercial
hatcheries ........................: Million :June 107

Chicks and young chickens on farms ..: do. -July 582.

Farm price of poultry ration ........ :Dol.Fer cOt.: do. 2


ge


.4 416.8 408.8


.9

.1


310.3

16.1


.6 31.0

-- 48.9

-- 9.1

.6 45.8


89

62.5

10.4


.6

.8


.6

.5


305.8 :

16.0 :


30.7

4b.5

7.6

45.3


90

63.8

13.1


5,669 2,316

7,113 4,333

10.8 59.7


92.7 111.7

492.1 550.6


: Will exceed last year when 1949 pull
: are added to laying flock.


:





: A rise of 1.2 cents from June.


Cumulative a'-erage percent of parity a
January 1949.91.


: Favorable for egg production.




Combined, smaller than any year
since 1916.

: Practically all Government-owned, or
: intended for delivery to Government.

January-June hatchings in 1949 are
25 percent larger than in 1948.


.55 4.40 3.45:


Poultry


Prices received by farmers for
chickens ..........................:Ct. per lb.;July

Prices received by farmers as a :
percentage of parity ..............: Percent : do.

Retail price of chickens (BAE) ......:Ct. per lb.:June

Prices received by farmers for : :
turkeys ...........................: do. :July

Stocks:

Poultry, excluding turkeys ........: Mil. lb. : do.

Turkeys ............................ do. : do.

Chicken-feed ratio ..................: Lb. feed : do.

Turkey-feed ratio ...................: co. : do.

Average weekly receipts of poultry at:
Central Western Primary Markets, i
per plant .........................: 1,000 lb. : do.

Chicks placed in 7 broiler areas l/ Million :June



./ Five weekly periods centered on June.


21.3 31.9 24.3 :


116


In June, 26.1 cents; third consecutive
decline in monthly farm prices.


112 87


00.0 OO. O2.7


23.2 40.5 34.7 :


62.2

34.4

8.6

9.2


72.2

27.3

7.2

5.2


Increase of 1.5 cents from June refleetOl
increased marketing of young birds.


43.8

25.1

7.0

10.1


16.1 17.5 17.6

--- 24.0 31.2 :


Increasing seasonally.


Item





--. .--

THE POULTRY AND- EGG SITUATI ON


Approved by the Outlook and Situation Board, August 2, 1949



: In this issue: Page :

: Changes in the Breed Composition
,: of Hatchery Supply Flocks ..... 17


SUMMARY

The recent trends of egg prices have been seasonally upward, bring-
ing U. S. farm prices to an average of 45.3 cents per dozen in mid-July.
': Prices will continue upward until early fall, rising to a peak probably
lower than last year, but an expected large egg production in the final
quarter of the year is likely to result in an easy price situation then.

From April through June of this year, the U. S. laying flock
averaged about 2 percent fewer birds than the year before,, and produced
at a rate per bird slightly lower than in the corresponding months of 1948,
so total farm egg production was 2 percent less than the comparable 1948
output. Nevertheless, the number of eggs actually consumed during those
months may have been about the same as a year earlier because the accumu-
lation of eggs for cold storage was much smaller. The decline from last
year in storage activities offset both the smaller production and the larger
quantities of eggs sent to hatcheries and to the Federal price-support
program.

Prices of chickens except fowl rallied in July, interrupting the
downward price trend which had been evident since April. Supplies of
farm chicken, increasing seasonally, have been added-to the continued .large
output of specialized broiler areas, with the result that the July farm
price, 24.3 cents per pound, is 22 percent lower than the farm price 3 -
months ago. In late July chick placements in specialized broiler areas
were declining, indicating that marketing from those areas will soon be
: reduced.
The 1949 turkey crop is indicated to be of record or near-record
numbers, in contrast with the small crop in 1948. A Government price
support program, beginning in August, has been announced.



: The next issue of The Poultry and Egg Situation
: will be released in late September.

The 1950 Outlook issue will be released in
: October


I






The aum'ler, of yoting. chiQ6"n 01,' fae 6ud 10.0
than last !er The 0 nubrm hceerised etp t
at a figure 17 percent larger than last yeab T"op faitet deo
laying fl~ok this falltath year fore DuWput fradhe
help to offset, the reducir pio pMevious, yeari3 ,Tnv Pie ae ofegg
hedi mricial storage for fall and.-winter, use.

JuyF _gPrice QSag;nd-


Farm egg prices roeaaoal fo i-ue to. mid`Jul.
45.3 06ate per dozen pric,6 reported aq the U. S. average. for July isi. oe
higher than tbhe prjcp the onhbfe.W1hi6le the. incregae fomJu
sm4-ller than in 'any ofk the- Irecdiz* 5, years, Ah Jun ]*ice "wao a r
the month, so the July price nevertheless stands at a high level, e
only by 1947 and 1948,P Through Midi July, egg prices had alre6ady'ris'
4. put fomthirspr ingtixne lo Mrh16, ensprdzen)- l'
crease Is somewhat lower than those which occuhrred.in some Othrex`r qree

Table, I.- Eggs: United States farm pricoes.in desnlwmotso

Season 1Juw price PricP 00ei
year: Mnh : .Per :per .:season-1o t
: ocurring : dozen -: dolen : pe ,& 6.0
: Mouth Ce itsCet t

1940; .,uns 1 .4 16.4 2
1941:: March 16,4 LOV.5 96
1942; April 25.6 2.
1903 April. 33; -6 Ii;,
1944: April 271 31.
1945:, April 33.0 3.
16: April 31-3 '17-15
1947- February .38, 6 4
1 8: Mat 1. 4-5 8.

Senasnal changia' th. the, vrice of eggsaerltd in WP
setzonal obeages. in supplyt (eee cover c#ar aad-'lablp 2); *eb 7
beiueen the seasons of greatest supply and Ipwst, price ie, cled
similar correspondence between 'he, 004.4ku idf least supp4y an' I=

hepiewigs of cou~frsee,!evflept cbangea,,in, eize quhd q-oa
eggs and method of sale as, wall as-in quantityt makted, Other fe- .
contribute to the deviation. from a Vreci-se, relatiotshp btw. nAT
supply changes.
Ali, n -onhDeln


During Jul3y there was ahn inriaease in thicksm piicies (eieept TW

sow weeke earlier, '(Tablei 3) This linteA&= th
mea prcesthat had begun after Xanter, The change 1@tso
a price position high~iertha fow 'anding an, u nusua coaditiop*r-






Tab1i 2c- Egge: Commercial supply from farm production, and average farm
prices, July 1946-.Tune 1949

., .. ,__ .__ Data for cover chart) .
Governiveiit t
~ : Governenet-Net commercial U.S.
r ,T., :Eggs used.purchases "
uu sdp .far :fo c cold storage Net : average
th farm hatching support : movement / monthly fam
Sproductioi,: / :dried eab', ; : supply : prices
g : ; frozen) 2/. In per dozen
O": Nil. d3z. Mil.doz. Mildoz. i.do .doz. Mjadoz. Milo dc:, Cents

: 356.L 3.6 4.6 4.3 343.9 37al
306.4 3.9 1.7 20,8 32.1.6 39*1
ept. : 274.7 5.2 1.0 440 312.5 44;5
t. : 266.0 5-9 5.9 47.8 302`0 51- 5
0av : 259.7 27 7.7 46.0 293,3 47.8
sc; 313.6 l 0.8 10.4 37.9 333.3 47.0

i : 379.7 16,0 "23.4 11.3 351.6 41.3
: 400.4 33.8 36.8 1.2 328.6 38.6
. : 51.9 4093 41.4 30.1 401.81 40.1
5r,:. 526.0 3C.4 -4.2 94.4 387.0 40.8
ay : 510.6 12,0 60,7 89,4 348.5 40.7
une 4:32.2 6.4 61.3 23.2 341.3 41.5
|July 376.7 4.8 35,8 17.7 353.8 45.7
,Augo 317.9 4..5 49.2 362.6 '7..5
ASept. r' 280.2 5,2 b4,2 339.2 53.0
0ct, : 236.1 4.8 72.4 353.7 55.3
kNov. : 272.0 4.4 59..9 327.5 53.4
ec. : 309.6 7.0 8,o 311.5 58,7

an. : 359.8 12.9 12.-, 357.2 43.7
eb. : 392.2 28.4 4.5 359.3 45 0
"Mar; 506.2 37.8 43l. 425.3 42.6
A. 5233 28.0 104. 39-.2 42.6
i;ay ; 497., 12.3 2.7 103.6 373.8 41.5
aune- 41.68 7o4 19.2 28;8 3qi,.4 43.
July ': 369.6' 6.3 23.1 11.2 339.0 45.8
Aug. : 325.5 51.9 18ea 4-7.1 348.3 49.2
tSept. 293,0 6.2 9.8 614 338.4 51.4
iOct. 291.4 7%- 5-9 72,1 349.9 54.7
iNOv. 288.0 ',.3 1. 56,4 355.6 58.3
Dec. : 334,0 10.7 3.6 37.2 356.9 52.8

VJan. : 380.6 19.1 6-5 18-0 373.0 47.1
eb. 401,2 36.6 14.2 8,9 359.3 41.8
Mar. : 511.4 409 30.2 26,1. 414.2 41.2
OAipr, 508.8 36.4 44.7 36.5 391.2 42.3
:a : 487.1 14.8 24.6 60.5 387.2 43.4
Pune : 408.8 8.1 22.1 35.0 343.6 44.1

0.Detived from monthly production of commercial hatcheries, with allowances for
cis- 6of eggs set over hatchangs, ana for farm hatchings.
Converted to shell equivalent by conversion factors, 10 pounds dried egg or 37g
s .frozen equal 30 dozen shell.
.mand shell equivalent of frozen,combined.


, a






*'Thit prIb xed .t tA,6 2td'
specialized producing areas Is .tr refte<in M.6diwarequt
and July U. S. average farm prices of chWilrtB., iride' tbe LnMu4
reports levels only as of the. 15th ..f aeaca~.'ci : .. S .. ..
at 24.3 cents per pound, is 1.j., q9:ritrunde the une Tj. tre o-
third' consecutive month. in.which 1U. S,. ave.rag. faltr.p.k:e a#q
from both the previous month. and the correspo" Anding: mantthe preti4
year. E F .,

Table 3. Live. poultry; t Ptoe a: tfo.Ka :o4duiok '8
markets and. prod.ifdg ar'6ad e.t weeks, 1 .. '.

.:... .o .r Price 'er. oufd l .
^ : : B .. Ch cagoi : *.. W -ar .*.^ 6Pg


April:June 2y-: July :AprilaVJutfer'i- tJ. Api: ufle -
:4 -8 : July l :18-22: 4k8 : JuJ 1 :I1822 8 *. 8
;Cents Cents Cents Cents' iAts CQenfts nil a'Gc 0.".

owl..............40.8 2.9 25.0 4l5.3 .32.84. 28.5 4 '.
RBoasters .......... 39.2 28.0 30.6 47.5 33.7. 37....:lj.Q 3OJ A-.19
Fryers ............ 34.0 26.5 29.5' 36.4 30.0 34.2 ,33.8.
roilers........... 31.0 26,0 29.0 34.5 262 -25.5 31.4 : 3

i P. : .rice per pound 2/:.
S. pel-Mar-Va.__. North. Georgia
:April: June 27.-:July 18-: April: June .27'- i.
: 4-8 : July :1 22 ; 4-8 : July : 1.
:. ents Cents Cents Cenlts s f e,&i
..- ., :-
1 Broilers .. l fryers: .29.5 22.4. 28.1 r 30.3 22.8 26.6

S"Average of daily ranges, f.b. prices In Chipago,: whale ba aelling. jp t.:-.
New York and Philadelphia. .
S /Aveorage of daily prices most commonly paid producers, f.oib. ftaprs.

SThe decline from the first quarter of 1949 in the pices for Aal.
r classes of chicken is in part an adjustment to the. ltrge. u4ppliies Of N
S ich are becoming available. In the first quarter of the year,
of chickens from -farms always are seasonally- sanall. In recent yea
about' 12 percent (by weight) of the farm chickens old have been
the first three months of the year, while the arkhtings i'the seec0 -
typically amount to about 20 percent or nor6" of the annual total.. ii'-.:N..

S. IT, is possible that the pattern for marketing of farm chic kW s:
far this year may have. been -slightly -different frman the pattern, 4 ei ,..
previous years. First quarter marketing iee. r.iobabljy amle ttia:1 ..
account cf the smaller number of birds in. many flocks .. Second (vua rm...i
| however, including much young stock, were probably large.r- Vi5 43i .Yy1kft
.:: large hatch. this spring for replacement purpose:,. The N.ti'lzi:Lpga ot
V chickens in both, of these quarters 'were accbimpanied by-ar asg market,
S conminrcidly produced. broilers. The oee level of storage. t .oc,
.; on January 1, 1949 (about one-half the -atrAchl of~ti threes. e:
-facilitated the ombtng the large b ht ar i *b ear i
Hd laye. the price ad.. .justm t.. -.
< ':"". previos years, F~rst u~rte mar~tN. b%11" b y. l i '.







Factor tending to support or strengthen chicken prices in the next
few weeks are, the expected drop of one-sixth in broiler marketing (as judged
F by recent placements in specialized producing areas), the beginning of a
season when into-storage movement of poultry occurs, and a seasonally short
I run of hog marketing. Tending to push prices down will be the continued
Increase in numbers of farm chickens marketed and the approach to volume
marketing of turkeys.

th 9Farm prices of chicken, at 87 percent of parity in July, fell short of
the 90 percent support levels specified by current legislation for birds
.. 3 1/2 pounds and heavier. On a cumulative basis since January 1949, however,
they average 102 percent of parity.

SThe reported weekly placements since March of broiler chicks in seven
Vi<: specialized areas,. and comparable totals for last year, have been as follows:


Chicks placed in specified commercial broiler areas, April
and corresponding total, 1948


to July 1949,


Week .. By areas, 1949
I end- East ":Del-Mar-: henan'Chatham-: North : N. W. : Total
: : : doah : : Texas Total : 1948
.ing Conn. a. doah Wilkes Georgia Arkansas
' '*_____:_____:Valley : : : _
:Thous. Thous. Thous. Thous. Thous. Thous. Thous. Thouus.. Thous.

W.,.Apr. ?: 252 31020 873 432 .1,031 814 677 7,099 5,297
Apr. .9: 230 2,927 861 445 1,093 800 724 7,080 5,310
:'Apr.16: 263 2,870 872 421 1,065 838 718 7,047 5,303
Apr.23: 256 2,849 824 413 1,058 814 724 6,938 5,399
Apr. 30: 237 2,782 836 410 1,088 821 688 6,862 5,321
,"May 7 : 258 2,904 812 385 1,215 789 671 7,034 5,202
May 14: 260 2.987 785 384 1,061 722 742 6,941 5,165
May 21: 236 2-7988 820 382 .. 981 678 651 6,736 4,888
'May 28: 195 3,004 753 .379 953 686 685 6,655 5,000
SJne 14: 236. 3,156 712 >-387 983 686 626 6,786 4,838
SJune 11" 174 3032 711. 381 959 618 576 6,451 4,861
.rJunel8:. 228 2,912 690 395 922 "642 540 6,329 4,757-
:jiBune:-- 193 2 6599 633 -377 887 608 538 5,895 4,852
:;,July 2: 120 2,578" 656 344. 850 637- 554 5,739 4,682
WJuly 9:' 115 92,291 606 333 810 595 572' 5,322 4,772
i Julyl6: 120 1,937 554 328 769 624 589" 4,921 4,608
July23: .47 1,705 509 311 791 519 504- 4,386 4,279
July30: 88 1.923 489 280 680 449 476 4,395 4,001

This indicates a drop in all areas from the peak rates of placement, although
S. the extent and timing of the drop has varied among areas.

Turkey Numbers Up,
Government Support Announced

Turkey, hatcheries which have reported their butput over the period
l February through June have hatched 60 percent more poults in those months of
1949 than in the same period of 1948. Although the group thus reporting to
the Bureau of Agricultural Economics is only a sample of the hatchery industry,
.clearly indicates a 1949 crop far larger than 1948. The 1949 production
.ill probably be of record or near-record proportions, and prices are now at
l.ijpl.'. below -last. year.


.
*,\




1
',:-'
4:.




":*"% :l:


*. : .' .,

',..:;:.



.

*,.. :'!
." .. :
V*










sti.uL above ..ast years xe-v.as. Te JuiLy l.949 ra":it ... 83 m .i.tg
per pound compared with. 40.5 pemmts. lzi July 1948.
7-
Under influence of the small supply and strong attman4., the
turkey crop- sold at record high priced. For the calendar year l94,' :A
turkey prices averaged ii4 percent of parity, but 'In th&. hQliday jior i'th :
of November and December the fam pribae &ererespeotiely 14i ax l. .*
cents per pound, 129 and 145 percent of parity.

Contracts for the delivery of dressed turkeys in Noveniber and -
'December have been traded: on the Chicagoroantile Exchange since June mmmmI
1949. For the week ending July 30, the contract foraNovember hens t iaded '
in the range of 48.00 to 48.75 cents per pound, ending the week near the '
high mark. Togs were. 37.70 to 38,15 cents. (For a comparison.of.these .
prices with earlier prices for the same contracts, see table 4.) The :
nearest comparable prices specified in the newly-announced:'sipport' prog trA
are those applying to Grade A birds of less than 1'6 poundss to be delive.a'h&
in storage in Illinois in November at 48 cents per pound,. and similar birflnC.
weighing over 22 pounds each, under -identical delivery conditions, .at I'.
36.5 cents per pound. '

To average 90 percent of parity for October through December, 1949, :i
farm prices of turkey in these months would have to averse 31.6 cents per
pound (live) if the index of prices farmers pay, -including interest and
taxes, stands unchanged 'at the July 1949 level of 244. The farm price of
turkeys in July, based on off-season demand, is not perfectly coplparable to
the prices recorded for the winter holiday months.


Table
1949


4.- Turkey: Weekly 'range, future prides for November,
contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, week
ending June 3, 1949 to date


Week
ending



June 4 j/:
June 11 :
June 18 :
June 225 :

July 2
July 9
July 16 :
July 23 :
July 30 :
1J Trading


P.Price per po int
Hens: -Toms
Low High Low Hi 4
Cents n Cents Cents ...

46.00 48.,50o 38.75 42.00
46.50 47.75 37.25. 39 .
45.00 45.50 36.30 37.00
45.25 45.50 36.50 36.90 j

45.00 45.25 36.10 36.3b. I
44.90 45.60 36.25 T76.
44.50 45:00o 36,1 37 00 .
45.oo00 46.50 36., 3
.48.00 75 .
began June 1.


m' m m m.K m* ( -- --:


I


m Em I m .


m *. -


,i

.. s."
. ". .'. .. **







., In expetbation of early rarketings by producers qho.ray anticipate
l'o.wered turkey, prices, the Department of Agriculture, through its Production
.' and Markting...Administrati.on, announced. on July 22 that it will accept offers
S-beginning in August under-'its 1949 turkey price support program. This pro-
Sgra has as its objective the support of faim turk--y prices at 90 percent of
parity. The price support range for turkeys stipulated in the Agricultural
Act of 1948 is 60 -to 90 percent of parity. Tne operation of the program will
be through offers to make carlot purchases of dreEsed turkeys in approved
I storage in the months August through Lecewber '949, and in July, 1950. The
minimum prices (live basis) which must be. reflected to producers will range
F from 22.0 to 375 cents per pound, doper-i2n- upon.the weight and quality of
the birds offered, location and month of delivery (table 5).

Table 5.- Turkey: Prices per pound, live and dressed, under 1949 Federal
price support program, for G2.ade A birds in Zone I, by month of sale and
.A*' ___weight clap ______
We eight : Month C t' .7.e l949__ : 1950
At :but less : August : September: October flovember : December: July
: lastt: than: :_: :. :___ :
S Lb. L : Ct, Cto. .. '. Ct. Ct. Ct.


,18.
22 -.
24


18 :
22.
24


34
31
25


--- 16 : '45
16 20 : 41
' 20 22 : 37
22 --- : 34
_Grade B prices are
dressed.
S2/ Zone II prices are
.dressed; Zone III 1.5


a. Minimum payable to producers for live bird.
.50 31' .75 '35.00 35.25 35.25
.25 31.50 31.75 32.00 32.00
.75 26.00 28.25 28.0. 23.50
.00 25.25 25.50 25.75 25.75
b. Government pa.y ing. price to processors for
New York dressed birds.
.75 46.OC 46.25 46.50 46.50
.75 42.00 42.25 42.50 42.50
.75 33.00 38.25 38.30 38.50
.2_5 34.50 34.75 35.00 35.00
3 cents per pound lover in all categories, both


Ss.






48.oo
4i4.00
4o.oo
36.50
live and


0.75 cents higher in all categories, both live and
0 cents higher; Zone IV 2.25 cents higher.


Zone I includes; Washington, Oregon, California, Idaho, Montana, Nevada,
Utah, Wyoming., Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, and
Louisiana.

Zone II includes; North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas,
Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolira, and
Florida;

Zone III includes; Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio,
Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, District of
Columbia, and.North Carolina.

Zone IV includes; Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, *ew'York, Massachusetts
Connecticut, Rhode Island,.'*Pennsylyania, and New Jersey.





&J .. d.: t'.. A..


C
*1.
I,


A

















Detailedoprices: under the 1949 turkey puice support twograi -:e
whown in table 5.

Second-Quasrter gg Production Down from Lt ear; ..
-Decline in Laers not Offset by Chage in g of .,

Farm egg production'in thq second quarter of 1949 fell short -6f ; 7
duction in the same quarter of the previous year by about 33 tllo, i41
eggs, 2.3 percent. Production in the first quarter, on the other ha:in' h
exceeded corresponding 1948.output by about.that some amount, res.ti~ngi
Janaury through June productions in the two years that were about. equal.
Month by month through the first half of 1949, the numbers bf. layers ;.1U
farm flocks have consistently been below 1948 levels, but increases over .r
1948 in the January through March rate of lay:more than compensated. for'::th
duficed numbers in those months. In,-each of the months April tihr'ugh- Jhs
the 1949 rate of lay was very slightly under the corresponding 1940 fdigt'
which were records.


The regional pattern of changes from last year in numbers of la
on farms, rate. of lay, and farm egg production, is fairly uni orm,.-
shown in table 6, on a regional basis the exceptions are few to tae
through June nationwide changes from 1948 to 1949. Numbers of ..layeft
1949 in the Pacific States, and to a lesser extent in' the Southi At
States, did riot follow the U. S. trend. The first-qdarter. rte of.-': 1
below 1948 in the Western States. April through June rate of lay at.
ahead of 1948 in the West North Central, South Atlantic-and South .O
regions. But farm production of eggs in. the secondd quarter of 1i:9 4S9 s
lower than the year before in all regions except in the South 4lI..i
and the Western. :
.. Id'....
The interruption to the 'up Kfrd* antuhl trend in rate of 1hy: ': '4J
has occurred in April, May and June this spring, does. not neceusai
that the trend has run its course. The interruptions since t ha" e
eluded two breaks, of four months dutatioAn(March through June, 4.X ,Ia i
through September, 1946) and other inter-breaks, The fw.edtl f tfe
declines from last year in the monthly rate: of lay is very S6tf.ii-. |
ceeding 0.5 percent in afy month,
Production in the peak spring mnthe.usually ,Mes lt1 4 Ma
year; the uptrend in annual rate is to a considerable extend t .. Ehe
large increases in months of seasonally smaller output, .Th, Aprfl-Jfen.
rates, as eggs per 100 layers for the month, are given "in nm idEW# it|
1948 (in parentheses): 4pri, 18.0 (18,1); ay, 18.2 (le8 Tii), Ca
(1691). ..... j;


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Storage Down, Priqe Support PurchaKes '"- ." -..-t,' i

Although -the total January. through, June fan. prV lti&pf t
been nearly the same ini 1949 as. in 1948,.ths.adiaponaitp,. i of.a4i~
the two years has been somewhatt different .. Apparent"d4apt ap
civilian consumption channels has been little change. in the two esa
but commercial cold storage actiYvlty,gpvernment price suppb '. pt e
'.* and hatching differ considerably ,tn.tt tO .y "." "" .

In the first half' of 1948the.:, .t in-movement to cbes ilr col ,- A
storage (shell and frozen..egg combined) amounted to 10i.. peroett of'fa .
production. This'year eammercial storag,-took only 4.7? perbbcnt of prac- |
Stone. Commercial storage stocks in the U. S. on Jull 1 were 4- perbenit ot'.
last year for shell, and 70 for frozen stock. On &A7y 30 stocks' of shd'..
and frozen egg in 35 .cities were, respectively, 34 and 58,percent aof: t i"t
year. ,.

Increases in the quantity of dried eggs bought .zmner the Feder".. ,;..
price support program have almost offset the smaller commercial iSht-sJ
movement. Through June last year, price support had accounted for 0..8 .
percent of production. For delivery through June, this year,..tie Dep rtient.
of Agriculture had bought dried eggs equivalent, to 5.2 percent of. ta
production for price support purposes. :

The reduced storage demand for eggs in 1949 as, compared with 1948
is a partial explanation for the easier price situation early this year and i
accordingly for the need for greater price support so far in 1949 than in :.:
1948. Storage demand presumably was affected by the unfavorable out-turn
of 1948 egg storage operations, as well as by the gonerally unsettled .. -
business outlook and the expectation of heavy production from an expanded
flock later in the year.

Last .year, purchases were not begun until May 15. They.were caOV r *
tinued through 1948 and into 1949 without interruption. Of the 56 mi ntow0
pounds contracted to date for 1949 delivery, 40 millica pduns-woare S'bU]lt'-
f rom December 1948 to mid-May 1949; in the corresponding period a year '..!
previous, no Government support program had been in operation. With ott :
support operations, the farm prices of eggs in the -first fite m=otlh. it 0 :
1948 held at an average of 91 percent of. parity; prices in 1949, hod "e ,
" required support Trom January on, since the January price was 85 perdenta i
:.* and it was not until May that the cumulative average stood-at '90-per eant1'.
of parity. Ninety percent of -parity as an annuaX average is- the yp~ $
objective.

The increased setting of hatching eggs to provide the larger 19I49..,
chick output to date completes the enumeration of the major-changes lin..
the disposition of eggs as between January-June 19486 and 1949,= Last ye1i
4.2 percent of January-June form output was incubatedi this: year, 5.2



Y"M
:.. .. ..



.-. ..... ...:rr..
:::.... .- ; .' "= ... =.,' *.;x ...=.






iMterateSea'ona3:Egs ricp Rise Expected;
l increased. Production t..Parly Offset
S Small:torage Stocks ,
.* In the months of.Api.l, May, add June, farm egg production was less
Than in the corresponding months of 1948. This condition may also have
extended into July, 1J. since the smaller production in the stated months
^ of ,-hiis year is largely. attributable to the smaller number of layers on
hand. But the maturity of the 1949 crop of pullets and their addition to
?r the laying flock will probably increase numbers of layers later in the
*, year to levels above last year. Even if the rate of lay then does no more
than to simply hold steady as compared with last year, production will be
larger in proportion to the numbers of layers; and if rate of lay goes up,
then egg production will be further increased-over 1948 levels.
Present information regarding numbers of young chickens on farms
indicates an increased laying flock this fall. Farm egg production is
likely to "be-increased at least in proportion.: On July 1, the number of
"" chicks and y6ung chickens on farms was 12 percent greater than the year
before. The number of chickens raised on farms this year is-17 percent
-ip' larger than last year. Increases of this magnitude have in past years often
occasioned similar (although not identical) changes in the numbers of
pullets on farms on the following January 1, as shown in table 7. Numbers
A. in laying flocks mount gradually from August on, to attain the December
,- totals.

Table 7.- Chickens raised, chicks and young chickens on faims July 1,
and pullets on farms following January 1; numbers, as a
percentage of previous year, 1931-49

C" : hicks : Pullets following : Percentage of previous year
kes and : January 1. : Chicks : Pullets
:Year:. rised : young : : Not'of : :Chickens: and :. :Not of:
S.ased chickens aing laying :Total : raised : young aying:laying:Total
: July 1 : e : age : : :chickens: a : age :
.'Millions Millions MillionsMillionsMillions Percent Percent PercentPercentPelrn.t

J1931: 709 516 185 44 230 93 96 94 ,
1ris32: 736 550 192 45 237 104 107 104 102 103 '"
i.19333 750 559 196 42 238 102 102- ..-..102 93 100
H1934: 644.. 503 172 40 212. 86 9Q 88 95 89
1935: 658 504 o 186 40 226 102 -100 108 100 107 *
19362 715 570 210 39 .249 109 -' 113--'- 113 98 110
-1937: 60f 464. 173 42 215 84 81 82 108 86
5i1938& 651 513 194 48 242 108 11 112 114 113
C1939: 697 534- -202 51 254 107 104 104 lo6 105
.1940: 634 .'499 192 .48 240 91 93 95 94 94
'1941: 745 550 221 57 278 18 110 115 19 116
;l942: 844 611 -255 63 319 113 111 115 111 115
943:1,001 732: 282 67 350 .119 120 111 106 110 R
.44:L 832 595 254. 47 301 83 81 90 70 86 ,
45: 915 661 -271 53 325 ..110 111 107 113 108
6:: -746 564 28.' 37 285 82 85 92 70 88
7: 7T45 566 250 :35. 285 100 100 101 .95 100
: 637 92 236 33 269.. .186 87 94. 94 94
:: 749 551 118 112 A

p .Jul vil be released in the August 10 report on Crop Production.









since 1942), h'e nu
: farmers bold over a
they did last yed.
farmers to do this
and the egg-feed pr.
:: prices are 1ow.
Table 8.- He


Hens on
Year farms
: January:


1932 : 156
1933 154
1934 : 147
1935 : 139
1936 136
1937 : 130
1938 138
1939 : 134
1940 : 139
1941 : 141
1942 : 150
f 1943 170
. 1944' 174
1945 : 172
S 1946 : 150
: 1947 150
1948 : 141
1949 : 145
1950

The indicate
than last year, com
wodi d lead to a lari
same condition, ten
in the fall months
the 'fall of 1949 (a
high on account of
To" achieve, a
an August-November
S would be necessary.
deficiency in shell
output was absorbed
is not likely to ma
the year. It widll
fall.


JUaWL.usOWA woal uu j .a a 7. w.16 :m.67.u wm
obers this winter can be larger thai
consideraby larger perdentege 't tui .
Howr present pAle relatO ak"tpS .
in coxMpis.on wit.i .thre.eAit A:It, on v N.
ice r.tio favorable fbr egg prodbdtion, **wh.tl&:
:'- *' ''" "'' ". : ".' : ."
ns and puleta on aim, m and. hens as a perceantage :
of pallets .193 49

Pallesi on :
farnas Hens as a percentage
1 preceding of pullets
s Millions Percent


244
230
237
238
212
226
249
215
242
254
240
278
319
350
301
.325
285
285


63
67
62
58
'*" 64
58
55
62
57
56
62
61
55
49
50
46
49
51


-- I,*


. ,,


S269

ons for a January 1 laying flock comrrising more lZte .,
bined with a& smaller or nearly unchanged number o 4*,.
ger percentage of'pullets than the year before. TcI: ..:
iing toward a higher percentage of pulleta, v41l 1
also, and will be- a factor favoring a frat of lay... '
* well as through the first half of 1956) that a 1 ]
the large proportion of pullets in the fMlock.
I fall egg supply equal to last years cm1.ercial :eZc,:-:,
farm production almost 8 percent larger than la ..
The 8 percent increase, iouA- :bOe needed o1. .4t 3
and frozen storage stocks, aes.aung that he.
in coZmercial ebannelse But such an Mfeased.
beriali.e, except possibly, in the last amth Wr
be farthest fram attaiment in thW earl. M dA[ntb l

S *. ....... V i. ,...
.. ,A- *. .




; S-137 15 -
Despite the reduced total supply of eggs that is likely this fall,
there are several reasons why prices are unlikely to equal those a year
earlier. The limited o;:tont to which fresh and stored eggs compete price-
wise is one of those considerations. Except in July and August, when hot
weather often adversbly.affects the quality of fresh eggs, the competition
between the better grades of fresh eggs and stored shell eggs is not very
direct; and freshly broken-out egg meats from fall-produced eggs (excluding
undurgrades) are generally in a price class which has eliminated itself
from substitution for frozen egg, the price of which usually is based on
spring-time egg costs. Therefore, it is likely that to some extent the
cliangets in storage supplies and in fall production should not be considered
as perfect offsets to each other. To the extent that they are not offsets,
the supply of fresh eggs will have to clear the market with less help than
is statistically indicated by the storage deficiency, and the seasonal peak
in egg prices may be lower than otherwise might be expected.

A second consideration influencing the expectation that the remainder
of the seasonal egg price rise will be moderate rather than extreme is the
Eeneral trend of business conditions and agricultural prices. Both nonfarm
employment and consumers' incomes have dccline-d slightly in recent months.
Supply increases in other food commodities, such as the food fats, and
chicken, have induced significant price declines; a similar ex.-pectation
might hold for eggs, which this fall and winter probably will show their
greatest post-OPA production increase (seasonal increases excepted).

Index Numbcrs of Seasonal Variation of Egg Prices;
Example cf Parity Computation

The series cf indix numbers of seasonal variation of farm egg prices,
1;. months, has been extended for twelve months by the Bureau of Agricultmral
Economics. This index provides the basis for making the seasonal edjust-
ment which is essential for converting monthly farm egg prices from their
dollar-and-cents value to a percentage of parity. The percentage of parity,
in turn, is the measure of the legal need for rovernment-price support
under present legislation and accordingly to some extent an indication of
prospective federal actions.

In table 9, the numbers from July 1949 through June 1950 are newly-
announced. In comparison with the monthly index numbers for the fiscal
year just passed, the extended numbers. show only very gradual chances.
In only one month, December, dots the change from last year exceed one
percentage point. The changes in the- orice index tend to raise parity
priccs for the months of seasonally low prices and to effect offsetting
decreases in the high-price months. This recognizes th:.- smoother monthly
pattern of prices which has been induadd partly by the smoother monthly
patts-rn of production. (See January 1949 issue of *this"sn'tatitht' ;'xt WI.
table 6, page 15).

Tabl, 9.- Index numbers of seasonal variation of 6g9 prices, 19' 5-5' l/
Year Jan.. Feb. Mar.: Apr. May June: July Aug.: SuPt.. Oct.: Nov.. Dec.
1943 : 101 92 8V 84 85 86 9- 9a 'i 0 116 125 123
1946 : 102 93 85 84 85 87 96 101 106 114 122 121
1947 : 104 90 85 86 90 94 101 106 116 120 120
1948 : 106 92 87 84 86 88 95 100 107 116 119 121
1949 : 104 91 88 85 86 88 96. 101 107 116 119 119
S1950 :103 91 88 85 86 89
For earlier years see pcultry and Egg Situation. Augut 19.0, page 10.
_L W.f'






To determine the percentage of parity which is represented by the U. S.
farm police in any given month, the use of the index of seasonal price variat-
Lon is as follows: The reported price is divided by the appropriate monthly
index and multiplied by 100. The resultant figure, which may be called the
seasonally-ad usted farm price, is then expressed as a percentage of the parity.
price, the parity price being the base (1910-14) price multiplied by the ..-
current index of prices paid by farmers, including interest and taxes. The
base price is 21.5 cents per dozen, and for July the index of prices paid is
244. An example of the computation of the U. S. average farm price as a per-
centage of parity is given below.

45._3 x 100 = 47.24 45.30 is the reported U. S. average farm price of
96 eggs for July 1949

96 is the seasonal price adjustment for that month,
taken from the index of seasonal variation.

47.20 is the computed seasonally-adjusted farm price
for July 1949.

47.20 x 100 = 90 21.5t'is the base period farm price of eggs.
21.51 x 24k
244 is the July 1949 index of prices paid by
farmers including interest and taxes.

90 is the computed percentage of parity which is
represented by the July 1949 farm egg price of
45.3 cents per dozen.

Dates of Jewish Holidays in Fall:
Favorable Market Days for Poultry

This year the Hebrew New Year (Bosh Hashanah) and Day of Atonement
(Yom Kippur) will begin respectively at sunset on Friday September 23 and
Sunday October 2. On these holidays, dates of which on the Gregorian calendar
are different from year to year, Ij there are special demands for poultry. A
few days before these holidays, poultry markets in metropolitan centers fre-
quently show greater strength than either immediately prior or just following.

Poultry has no ceremonial significance at Rosh Hashanah or Yon Kippur
but chickens are used .at a ceremony preceding Yom Kippur. Both holidays are
occasions for family gatherings, and large meals are served on both days of
the New Year celebration, and on the evening following the fast which marks
the Day of Atonement. Good. qualities of all classes of poultry-are acceptable
for the holidays, but heavy chickens are jften especially favored.

The. nature of this holiday demand has shifted somewhat over the past
two decades. Many Jewish families now accept ready-dressed birds fbr holiday
use. The consequent lessened dependence of the holiday:trade upon live birds
for immediate Kosher slaughter has probably reduced the price effects of the
holiday demand, since part of the demand can now.be.met'by dressed poultry.
Naturally, in'the past increased supplies had often been marketed just before
the holidays in anticipation of the demand, and accordingly the extent-of the
demand is not revealed by prices observed without consideration also to the
quantity marketed.

IW The dates of the holidays are determined by a lunar calendar. g:. *:.'

































I"


















U.


.
:'S

I.**


Chickens in


Nonfarm Floc1ks


4'4 I


About 50.5 million hens and pullets were held in 2.8 million non-
farm flocks in November 1948, according to a sample survey made by the
Bureau.of the Census. I/ This finding is about in line with past estimates
of the Department of Agriculture that nonfarm chicken production approxi-
mates 10 percent of farm slaughter and sales.

On November 1, 1948 the total number of layers and potential layers
in U. S. farm flocks was 465.7 million. .The Census estimate of 50.5 million
hens and pullets in nonfarm flocks during the same month is 10.8 percent
of the farm numbers. Whether the relative numbers would remain constant
in other months and years is uncertain. The number reported on the basis
of the Census sampling Is. subject to a sampling error which is described
in the release.

Only half of the nonfarm flocks surveyed had produced eggs on the
day before the interview. This does not suggest a high level of egg pro-
duction for these flocks; .nevertheless it is possible that seasonal differ-
ences-in egg.,production between nonfarm and farm flocks are such as to
support the assumption that nonfarm egg production is likewise equivalent
to 10 percent of farm volume.

The estimated rate of-lay for the nonfarm flocks, based on produc-
tion the day before the interview, is subject to a very large sampling
error, indicating a wide range in the responses. Nevertheless, the rates
would Indicate a November rate of production significantly lower than for
farm flocks. Farm flocks in November 1948 produced the equivalent of 8.7 eggs
per layer; the nonfarm flocks produced an average of 4.8 eggs per bird.
The nonfarm flocks of 100 birds and over, producing an average of 7.5 eggs
per bird, were the only group in which production rates per bird approached
the farm output.

The 2.8 million nonfarm flocks are equivalent to a flock for one
nonfarm household in every 12. .Four of every 5 flocks were smaller than
25 birds each, and almost three-quarters of the birds were in flocks
under 50 birds.

CHANGES IN BREED COMPOSITION OF HATCHERY SUPPLY FLOCKS

CToss-bred poultry and New Hampshires have gained in popularity,
while White Leghorns and Plymouth Rocks have about maintained their relative
proportions In a group of hatchery supply flocks. There are the indica-
tiQihs from the statistical summary of data regarding the breed composition
QT certain hatchery supply flocks in selected States. The sample includes
all flocks in reporting States which arc enrolled in the breed improvement
phase of the, National Poultry Improvement Plan. The comparison runs fran
1941-42 to 1947-48, and in the latter year covered 41 States.


In 1948,hatcheries enrolled under the National Poultry Improvement
Program accounted for about two-thirds of the estimated incubator capacity
in the. United States, so the data described here apply to the parent stock
of a substantial part of the annual. baby chick output. Commercial hatcher-
ies, including those not under the Plan, have supplied over 90 percent of
the chicks raised in the United States in recent years.

eleas A-49-1, April 1949.


--A7 -
























.FaIaJ" Lf W Y J. M D .. ., .O ~ L.s p L. l." 1" ', Sd'. 5 ." ""
: ea not ietinguisa.. between "In-croe6bree*. ot7,-b( 6.,/-i *':
most highly.,fpecialized egg-laying crosses, and=the x!L
Crosses which typically are meat birds Siice the Weet4pt C-enil
States report .18 percent of their .saihple b irts to be; !a. :rbsd'-
::.. nd chicken meat, productionn in those Statee g 'riY isB Ati'
slpeeli&ti'edaIt Is. evident thUt crossesB intendiL tor egg contribta'.o :the -total. Hov9ver, 'the 18 i oceift V :i e iiot'
a meadiarB of the propofion of crosB-bred. 'birf n I pitt e4g-1eo$&
in the .r6giat,because meat-type ae well as -egt '.bl.is aae"rp ./
i.: n the total...

12 (r ThWe three lmost popular breed qf chickqns acoor,&W ngdtd ett
J n. *were. New Hampuhires, sLBhorns, and. Plymouth Rlodb, -lNearly ted garh
..joaM.0.tobgLtbQ4f.
of birds were reported.. 6r .each of .e1eb d Ban g qt4A0
: about. three- quarter all -the, baiI the vly e
separately ported: a6yA asi White Leghorna, twle the aa .x
varieties 'of tPlyuth .Mcks' were reported separately. Ther are t
varieties of. th er Hampshire breed, : .

New Heampahires in 1947-48 coapriaed about onefrturti of tt bi ':.
ain the-etional Poultry Improveimentlani. hatchyor Eupply.Sorca-. 5'"t
increasifi opularity over the pasmt.. 5years.Yi a e-spdeia :a *.e**. Sp
the ale 38 States reporting in 1942 ta 54.-
.2-......Ple .of 38 SZ4tereo.n ,
group of states the. proportion of .1 ev ampHflres' rB~t b .41e" .0
years from 17.1 to 25J.. percent. Coag4arison *in I.ti.ida!B F4aS Oa S*t"
s. .., trate the same cparable increase, 'he upwar trett& in ntmbef t.
S New HampshireB is particularly apparent in th ewL Em.Ee ta*Stat ap .
i"' the breed seems to have been gaining at the expense at Thome Da & u 06
I'i. "' the breed fiom which they were originally d*er ed.

17/ Sometimese called hybrids. .



... : .- .. ,.. .
i]:i ~ ~ ~~. ,, ., .: ;] : :
." :." '. : .i" / ., .: .. ,. : ? ", : ", ". "' ::' ;".a ~
v~~~ qiJ 1. ". .". ', :.




37 -19-

In-the reporting States, tho proportion of White Leghorns in the
sample held steady at about 25 percent of the total. Leghorns, the only
separately-enumerated breed to lay white-shell eggs; comprised one-half
or more of the sample in Utah, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Jersey, and New
York. No report is available from California, but in the other Pacific
Coast States, Washington and Oregon, the proportion of Leghorns seems
be.declining and in 1947-48 they comprised less than half of the birds in
hatchery supply flocks. Fifteen or 20 years ago, Pacific Coast flocks
S were predominantly Leghorn.

In 1947-48 rrymoutn Rocks 1White and Barred) also comprised about a
quarter of the birds in the sample hatche-y flocks. In 1947-48 there were
,|" more White than Barred Plymouth Rocks reported, but the proportions,-as
well as the total numbers, may be affected by the. same aspect of reporting
which affects the cross-bred reporting,. Barred Plymouth Rock breeding
flocks may be mated differently at different seasons of the year, since
Barred Plymouth Rocks are a parent breed for one of the more popular meat-
type crosses.

Table 10 summarizes the State data available since 1941-42 regard-
ing the breed composition of the hatcher., supply flocks in the breed im-
provement phases of the National Poultry Improvement Plan. The State data
upon which this summary table is based are reported in Release A.H.D. No.
69 of the Bureau of Animal Industry, USDA.

Table 10,- Chickens: Breed distribution of birds in hatchery supply f2ocks
enrolled in breed improvement phases of tnc National Poultry Improvement
Plan, 1941-42 to 1947-48

Year and num-: : w : White : Barred : Rhode:White:Cross-:
Hber of States: L: hew :WLhte :Plymouth:Plymouth.Island:Wyan-:mated :Other
. orting BreedsHampshire eghorn: Rock : Rock : Red :dotte: i/ :
:Thous- Per- Per- Per- Per- Per- Per- Per- Per-
1ahds cent cent cent cent cent cent cent cent


-0,712 21.2
'81 '19.2

19.4


'3.2


24.1 15 6 16.2

26.6 18.3 15.7

25.9 19.7 13.9

25.8 17,5 12.4

23.1 17.0 11.4

25.4 17.4 10.0

24.7 15.5 10.3
f 38 States repotting in
26.3 18.6 15.8
24.2 15.7 10.4


12.5 3.1 2.0

8.9 2.8 3.0

8.3 2.6 5.5


5.2

5.5

4.7


8.0 2.3 7.2 3.7


7.7 2.0 11.3

6.5 2.0 11.1


3.7

4.2


6.8 1.7 12.5 3.1
both 1942-43 and 1947-48
8.9 2.8 5.0 5.5
6.8 1.7 12.4 3.1


re not precisely indicative of the situation, since
flocks are reported under the respective purebred
e flocks are cross-mated only for a portion of the
he remainder of, the year they are mated as purebreds
chicks.
,D. No. 69. -




















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1941.84jrIm44.5 4 41.44
A:"'-t i. ,s" 'a ij ".r >,':. .4-* :.,:. .4, :
.. Mg 0!: 'r}:i .... ;: r
... '" "."-".' ... ,. .M.'
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