Poultry and egg situation

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17 192f 1925 1929 1933
ASAD'ON 0 AA FROM BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS


*O :9 AWS SOLD:. BY ORDER OF THE U. S.-FOOD ADMINISTRATION
''N':" NEG. 42598 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL COW

T MES,' THE EXTENT TO WHICri CONSUMERS SUBSTITUTE ONE'
0 ..aRAINOTHER IS DETERMINED LARGELY BY THE RELATIONS-RIPS i
cciIr sud FOODS. AS A RESULT OF SUBSTITUTION, PRICES~,f.":
It fISIMBSt. FRL.Y UIRT:RMLY AS THE TOTAL CONSUMER DE-p..
: E WSH...:.iTH SUPPLiES OF "RED" MEATS LIMITED A.ND
"fET..T'HE INCREASE IN DEMAND FOR POULTRY .1L
.:"PUyTIQN OF POULTRY MEAT IN THE UNITED STAt :i.
INCREASED TO AUGMENT THE TCTAL SUPPLY OF MEAT.


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,ftdwest pe pln 1Con0 19120 11. t
ice pr pount a. et 914 14. 1
ofst perit t 4. .m ece.1014 9
.. lb" 1936-40 14.5 8 6
rpound6, I e t 1 -40 18. V0.
( 4= 00 .. ndx o. 1931-40 A95 14.5
100 1. lb ndxn. 1931-40: "M 4 M
m~tsons. .n Cetil 1b196-0 i. 8 17. 1
Ty ... ... Min 17. 1b 2.4~q L n
p on ....Cent 198-4 18.4 20k.0
''Prlt R.ip Per pud Cent 17.-4 M8 go.?- 3-
z.o~g of parity percent 1dol 4 713 800
ten, pr pun . Centdol 1986-40 14 9468 t
6X ~ ~ ona ait rc ereoud Ci ent 193-40 14:6 M1 2 155 0.
percent's Of pait Percent. 19 fe_0 1492L 14.1 10-
GM C.. .. .L~ent 193-46 14.2 18I. 167' M
parity prd pe pou. C fent 198"0 14. 1 oS 12.. zi.
comodiles(190-1 = 10). Idexla t. 131-40 9L is 31 11 7 8
NA d egs 191-1 100). Index no. 11-40 95 127. no U5.
rjas ~00 ftas po dozen dex no 1 1-4 9.0 1 069SL1 1 It I
U~qT,6e% efpond Cnexnt 193-40 17.5 M4 19. U (
IlesB.R e pun Cent 1981-40 10.8 20.0 32.9 .1
0 ~ ~ ~ oe T ; Agb .! e on Cent 9:31-40 17.9 S0. 2 92 2.
z~a, kayy, cR., perpsat Cet 13r4o&a Men.a U
An egg .. . Nil.d ol 1931-40 904 944 OR ISO

Br oile. r o, e 3. ELI feed te Lb fesed 1e8q 40ivalent1,.,
'Lgtgastaers R., -fedib fedribu0t4ioM2ns.1 4
,#eg -fe b-,y eg-ryn p nt Lb wel e s 198-4 16.ctl 181.2 r.
'tbf c~n efed psb .ri t trak feed 1e8x4preI M$ss7 1"

eml ,to prices f or$ 0 mt 100 Inde no 19Uow0 beLn s07-1 110. 1anea4
I odpie 19 36-1 1 00) .r .o stIndex no.prbe 19214 9. 18. "es12.
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'; pats ere ample. .

r.. .reduction of poultry products responds more readily to changes in
demand and prices than most other livestock enterprises2 Unlike other
... camnodities for which stocks are carried over f.mra one year to another in
a".:Trying amounts, stocks of poultry vary only slightly from year to year and
"the' amount consumed is about equivalent to production. In recent years,
S:..hioken and turkey production has .increased greatly in response to favorable
A..4.riSes. The per ucpita consumption of *Ltheso meats is now by far the largest
-?...onjrecord. This is helping to satisfy the stronger consumer demand for all
.,.imeats. 'In 1942 the per capital eonsmuiptio of chicken and turkey in the
U..".nited States will be from 26 to 27 pounds compared with about 24 pounds in
1941, and 22 pounds in 1936-40. On a dressed and drawn basis readyy for the
:". -:.,le) these quantiti.os xould be equivalent to about 21 pounds, 19 pounds
aq;;.. ,an 17.pounds, respectively.

Further Increases in Poultry
P. reduction Posi blo

Poultry production probably could be i..crI';sod .iuch P.irther. ieat
'.:,.:p. Uppliae could be augiier ted by as much _s 5 or 6 pounds per capital, dressed
and drawn basia, ann-ially, per person. Eo,ic ircrereLse in output of poultry
-.. at is li1ly as a roc-.it of tl] ;.o.icc incontivo alone, ard further increases
o uld be mnjde by additional Jffort.

A materir.l increotse in poultry production could be accomplished by
utilizin:! more completel, e-isting poultry raisiiig facilities. In the past,
commercial broiler operations have been he:a--iest in the winter and spring
when sales of chickens from osner:l fans are liiht and prices are at a
seasonally high level. Sales of commercial. broilers have been lowest,
seasonally, in the late sumner and eo.rl'; fall. Since birds raised under the
.. specialized conditions of commercial broilc-r production reach marketable size
in about 12 wveoh:s, as minmy us 4 broods i.ny be raised a year. Producers in
some localities have raised only onr brond c. y'car wvile in other sections
operations :ravo b-en carried on at nnar cnracity. In 1941 as a whole, 163
...million broilers irore produced, but o:.izting facilities probably vrere not
.. operated much beyond 50 percent of a cityit. Dy operating at full capacity
275 million broilers, or nore, could be produced in a -year. A necessary
condition to continued full operation would be the reduction or elimination
of seasonal variation in troilnr ories.

Coraercial broiler production is concentrated in the Dolawa.reo-1aryland-
Virginia area on the ;.tla.ntic oab'oarr-, in sections of the southern States,
in Indiana, in northwest jrla.nsas, aind on LhI Pacific Coast. Eroiler pro-
duction, however, has increased _roetly near rnany metropolitan areas.
Increased cormorcial broiler production in eastern sections would necessitate
the movement of larger quantities of food front surplus feed producing areas,
but the moat so produced would be relatively close to corsuring centers.

Increased production of chick.mns on general far:.is, over and above that
normally resulting from raising pullets, also could be achieved. Such
chickens would be, for the most part, raised as an c::tra brood before or






SEPTiBER 1942 12 -

after the nornr'.l brood for flock replacement purposes. By such a procedure
tho birds vrould be markoted l.r-oly in seasons .then marketing of that class
normally arc li-ht. Inuro-sod production on conoral frrns are most feasible
in the ::id,;ost wvhero fo.,d supnlies and family labor could be utilized. Much
of the neat could be consumed in urban centers vdithin the re.f;ion.

Prospects Fcvorable for Incroe.sed
Turkey Output 4

The number of turkey producers, and turkey production, could be in-
creased in western sections of the Wheat Belt. In this region normal labor
demands vary greatly between seasons and supplies of grain are ample. Severe
competition from hogs for feed and labor does not exist as in the Corn Belt
where turkey production this year has been bulor the 1941 level.

Turkey production could be increased also by reducing the rate of
mortality Eifonf -;rowvin poults. Overcrowding in particular should be avoided.
Starting a lTrr,- ...,'.iber of poults in one lot may result in small total output
rather than an incrc so.

Any m~uior.al expansion in tiirk:-'rs should be encouraged primarily for
startinC in earl.' sn.-r, after the b-.1l: of tr. poults arc started. This
makes for noro coinloto utilization of br.,cdin- stocks, hrhtcheries and labor.
Strain on i ac:in fLcilitics vrlso -ould b.: lossonod since the later turkeys
could be "-*.r':etod aift'.r tl]e pe.-J. in sli.u-h'tor of other poultry. Prices for
young turkeys arc lI-ely to contin".c f.:.'orable for producers as long as the
strong de,,ar.nd for i.iat continuoc.

Young C!:ickenz ar.d Turi.:c.-
Effic~- ', Users of i'eod

On thj cavor:.a- about 4 pounds of f'ed aro nc-dad to produce a pound of
young chicl:en and 4-1/2 pounds for 1 pound of turkey (live weight basis). To
produce 1 pound of hog about 4-1/4 pounds of foud are required. A hog pro-
duces more calories per unit of feed L an a broiler, but on the basis of yield
of protein the chicken is superior. Tahin- theso two criteria to-other there
is little difference between broilers and turkeys on the one hand and hogs
on the other. Ample supplies of all necessary feed ingrcdionts are available
and prices are roll in line with prospective prices of poultry meat. Supplies
of feed i.-. eat and soybean mec..l, particularly, will be available in large
quantities.





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FARM PRODUCTION OF EGGS, CHICKENS. TURKEYS. AND
COMMERCIAL BROILERS. UNITED STATES, 1910-42


1925 1!
MDIsESSD WEi6uT


U. 5 DEPAITMEIT OF AGRICULTURE


REG. 410 BUREAU OF asMiICULTuIRL UMiMIS


FiounE 3


CASH FARM INCOME.FROM EGGS. CHICKENS. TURKEYS. AND
COMMERCIAL BROILERS. UNITED STATES. 1910-42
DOLLARS
I MILLIONS I


1.000



800



600



400



200


U.S. APARTMENT OF FAGICULTUiE


1925 1930 1935 1940 1945

kEG. 41110 BUiEAU OF ABICULiUUML ECOIbOICmS
Fieume 4


IN RESPONSE TO FAVORABLE PRICE RELATIONBSIPB, FROM 6 TO 8 PERCENT MORE LAVERS ARE
IN PROSPECT FOR 1943, AND WITh FAVORABLE WEATHER THE RATE OF MEG PRODUCTION PER 81R0 .
PROBABLY WILL BE MEAR THIB YEAR'S LEVEL. PROoDUCTION OF CiICKmNE ALSO HAS RESPONDED TO "*
FAVORABLE PRICEg, AND FURTHER INCREASES IN BOTH CHICKEN AND TURKEY ARE LIKELY It
1943. SUPPLICB OF FEED ARE AMPLE AND FAMILY LABOR CAN BE MORE READILY UTILIZED IN
POULTRY PRODUCTION THAN IN MOST OTHER FARM ENTERPRISEB. AN INCREASED NUMBER OF TURKEY
POULTS WAS STARTED THIB YEAR, BUT DEATH LOSSES WERE UNUSUALLY HEAVY DUE TO COOL AND
WET EITHERR.


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80O6-FEED PRICE RATIO, UNITED STATES. 1925-42


POUNDS


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1925 1927 1929 1931 1933

UL. NEIMWMERT or AGEICULTURE


1939 1941 1943


NEG 4127 BUUREAU OF 4GEICULTUIAL EClONMICS


FIGURE 5


PRICES RECEIVED BY FARMERS FOR EGGS, CHICKENS. TURKEYS.
AND DAIRY PRODUCTS. UNITED STATES. 1910-42
INDEX NUMBERS I 1910 14=100I


1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945
L MHIIUiEn OF AHICULTURE 'm1. 41811 1U11MU OF AGRICULIUI. KOaL E ICS
FioURc 6

THE EiG-FEED PRICE RATIO IB LIKELY TO CONTINUE FAVORABLE FOR EGC PRODUCTION DOU-
Ie 1943. PRICES OF OTHER LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE, HOWEVER. AS THE
qAR PROGRESSES, RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN PRICES Or HNOS, DAIRY CATTLE, POULTRY, AND E8Ro
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY IMPpRTANT IN DETERMINING THE ENTERPRISE THAT WILL BE EXPANDED
MOIT II THE FACE OF LIMITED FEED AND LABOR RESOURCES. LAST SPRING NOG PRICES IN THE
MIDIEST WERE RELATIVELY MORE FAVORABLE THAN PROSPECTIVE TURKEY PRICES, AND THE OUTPUT
OF TURKEYS WAD REDUCED SLIGHTLY FROM THE 1941 LEVEL. MHO PRICES ALSO NAVE SEEN MIGH
RELATIVE TO PRICES OF CHICKENS AND EGOS, SUT WITH SOME UNUSED POULTRY HOUSING FACILI-
TIES AVAILABLE, A FURTHER INCREASE IN CHICKEN AND EMG PRODUCTION IS TAKRIM PLACE. THE
RATE OF INCREASE NEXT YEAR, HOWEVER, MAY NOT BE SO GREAT AS IN 1942.


20


IS


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5

AVERAGE
1D1I-40

-5


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EGG PRICES IELATIUEL HIGH.
r FAVORAI F ORN EGB PlGOUCTIOm


- IEBL -
E. FIIOORAHILE FOR
EGG PIODUCYION


1937




Pfln UHhEIU!~


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UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE f'l"L. FOR ""
OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY P4iUi FW I
WASHINGTOM. D. C.. ..
-." .. ..... ."
OFFICIAL BUSINESS .












I "un. ;I


UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
111 2lIIII III U 0111 III III1lllll11 111111
3 1262 08904 0686


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