Poultry and egg situation

IT NATION

BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

PES-58 OCTOBER 1941


1941-42 OUTLOOK FOR TURKEYS


SALES OF TURKEYS. PRICE AND CASH FARM INCOME RECEIVED
FOR TURKEYS. AND NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYEES'
COMPENSATION. UNITED STATES. 1929-40
SALES I I PRICE
POUNDS L TURKEYS CENTS PER
( MILLIONS I 1 I ...1 ..:..... s / POUNDDI


0
PERCENT

20


10


0


-10


-20


1929 1931 1933 1935 1937 1939 1941
*DATA FROM AM S
ABASED ON DATA FROM DEPTH OF COMMERCE AND NATIONAL BUR OF ECON RESEARCH


U 5 OEPARTMRNI OF AGRICULtURE


%bG I9640 BUREAU SF GRICULTUIAL EFCONOMICS


CHANGES FROM YEAR TO YEAR IN PRICES AND CASH FARM INCOME RECEIVED
BY FARMERS FOR TURKEYS ARE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED VITH CHANGES FROM YEAR TO
YEAR IN INCOMES OF CONSUMERS. PRICES RECEIVED BY FARMERS FOR THE 1941
TURKEY CROPS WILL AVERAGE MATERIALLY HIGHER THAN THOSE RECEIVED FOR THE
1940 CROP, AND CASH FARM INCOME FROM TURKEYS THIS YEAR PROBABLY WILL BE
THE LARGEST ON RECORD.









THE EGG SITUATION AT

I I I I PERCENT


EGGS
DOZENS

8


7


6



5



4
CASES
I MILLIONS I


8



6



4



2


0
CENTS PER
DOZEN
30



25



20



15


A GLANCE


JAN APR. JULY OCT. JAN. APR. JULY
A M. S DATA. EXCEPT lOtvAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYEES'CGOMPENSATION
A 1ST OF THE MONTH. EXCLUDES U. S D. A HOLDINGS. BEGINNING APRIL 1. 1940
+ 1ST OF THE MONTH EXCLUDES U. S. D A. HOLDINGS. BEGINNING JULY I,. 1941


OCT.


U.S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


NEG 39664 BUREAU OF AGRICULrURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE


80
CASES
I MILLIONS I




4





2





0
CASES
( MILLIONS )


12



9



6



3






PES-58


- 3 -


THE POULTRY AND EG G SITUATION


Summary

Supplies of turkey will be somewhat smaller this fall and winter

than last. Prices received by farmers for turkeys will average materially

higher this year than last and cash farm income from turkeys probably will

be the largest on record. Although 2 national goal fnr 1942 comparable to

the one for eggs has not been established for turkeys, and turkey prices

are not included in the group of commodities for which price support has

been announced, a material increase in turkey production is expected next

Year. Turr:ey raising in 1941 will be more profitable on the average than

in several years.

Egg production on October 1 wrs nearly 10 percent larger thcrn on

October 1, 39140 and with favorable wer.ther -ill continue much larger than

a year earlier. The record Septembcr output was 6 percent larger than the

production in September last ,er. "- number of layers now on farms is

more than 5 percent larger then a year ago -nd .ill continue to increase

relative to 1940. By Jrnuarry the numb:-r of layers is expected to be about

10 percent larger thwn in Januery 1941. Such an incre-se in layers should

result in a corresponding increase in egg output in 1942.

The nat withdrawal of shell eggs from storage during the past several

weeks has been much smaller than a year earlier, reflecting largely the much ,

larger production this year than last. Erg .rices, however, advanced recently

as marketings declined following a drop in production, which is usual for

this time of year. Prices received by farmers for e rs a.re expected to

continue wll1 above a year earlier r-ll into 1912, and th; feed-egg ratio

is expected to remain favorable for egg production.





OCTOBER 1941 4 -

Marketings of young chickens are nor under way in volume and receipts

at midwest primary markets have been about the largest on record. Although

current consumption of chicken meat is very-large, storage stocks are being

accumulated more rapidly than usual. Marketings of chickens will continue

very heavy during the remainder of 1951 and into 1942. Commercial broiler

production this coming winter and spring is expected to be even larger than

the record output a year earlier.

Wholesale prices for fowls and some classes of young chickens de-

clined somewhat during the first half of October, and prices in the middle

of the month in general were lower than a month earlier. The general level

of prices of live birds, however, was higher than a year earlier. Material

increases in markictings are largely responsible for the recent price declines.

During the next few months prices for some classes will be little different

from a year earlier. The average price received by farmers for-chickens in

mid-September was 19 percent higher than a year earlier and 4 percent above

parity. Sepsonally adjusted prices for all classes of live chickens and

fowl at Chicago were above the 15-cent long-term support level announced by

the Department last April.

October 20, 1941

POULTRY PFOIJCZRS AND TE3 1942 FARM PROGC-A4

A farm production campaign for 1942 providing for n complete
mobilization of American agriculture to adjust production to domestic
needs for national defense and to the needs of rations resisting aggression
was announced September 8, 1941 by Secretary of Agriculture Claude R. Wickard.
Production goals for 1942 end the pr.rt that agriculture will play in the
defense effort were discussed with farmers and farm leaders in 4 regional
conferences hold during September.

In discussing the 1942 program on September 9, Secretary Wickard
said: "Farm production in general is in good balance, but greatly in-
creased supplies of some commodities will be needed. In this emergency
I have found it necessary to encourage the expansion of the production of
hogs, eggs, evaporated milk, dry skim milk, cheese, and chickens, and,
accordingly, I have today made fornal public announcement that the






PES-58 5 -

Department of Agriculture will support prices for these commodities until
December 31, 1942 at not less than 85 percent of parity."

The proclamation concerning price support for these six commodities
was made in accordance with the'provisions of Section 4 of Public Law
No. 147, 77th Congress, approved July 1, 1941.

On April 3, 19l) the Department of Agriculture announced that pro-
duction of certain commodities would be stimulated through the support of
prices over the period ending June 30, 19h3 at levels remunerative to pro-
ducers. It was announced that the Department would make purchase in the
open market to support long-terr. prices (Chicago basis) at levels approxi-
mately as follows: Hogs, $9 per 100 pounds; dairr prod-cts (basis of
butter), 31 cents per pound; chickens, 15 cents per pounk.; and eggs, 22
cents per dozen.

Support of prices of eggs and chickens is provided for at specified
levels in the announcement of April 3. And support for eggs and chickens
at 85 percent of parity also is provided in the proclamation of September 8.
Parity prices, however, may change from month to month and represent an
average for local markets all over the country rather than a single market.
In nid-Septeuber, the parity price of eggs was 35-3 cents per dozen and the
parity price of chickens was 15.6 cents per pound; (85 percent of parity:
eggs, 28.3 cents and chickens, 13.3 cents.)

Expansion of chicKen and egg production has been encouraged primarily
to obtain increased supplies of eggs. To assure the production of the de-
sired quantity of eggs in 1942, tentative national goals have been estab-
lished for both egg production and chicken slaughter. The production of
about 4 billion dozen eggs is desired for 1942. This includes an allowance
for nonfarm production and is about 10 percent larger than the probable
output in 1941. It appears likely that this goel will be reached. The
number of layers on farms next year will be about 10 percent larger than in
1941. With the Department's purchasing and price-supporting program and an
even stronger consumer demand next year than in 1941, egg prices are expected
to be high enough to provide a favorable feed-egg ratio.

The tentative goal announced for chicken production calls for the
slaughter of 750 million farm-oroduced chickens in 19112 cr about 10 percent
more than in 1941. This num-er would be closely approached if the number of
chickens raised on farms next year is only moderately (6-8 percent) larger
than in 1941. Such an increase next year is expected in view of the fact
that the number of chickens raised on farms usually increases for 2 years
following a decline such as occurred in 1940, and prospective price relation-
ships are more favorable than average. The total hatch in commercial hatcheries
probably will increase a little more than the number of chickens raised on
farms because of the further expansion in broiler production in prospect and
a continuing decline in the number of chicks hatched on farms. A large in-
crease in broiler production has taken place in recent years, and it is
difficult to determine how much additional expansion should occur. Total
production of chicken meat in 1942 is expected to be close to 7,250 million
pounds, or 13.6 percent larger than the probable 1941 output.





OCTOBER 1941


- 6 -


As already indicated, expansion of the poultry industry has been
encouraged primarily to obtain larger supplies of eggs. Maintenance of the
1942 number of layers in 1943 probably would provide ample supplies of eggs
after next year. That level of layers could be maintained in 1943 even if
the number of chickens raised in 1942 were no larger than the number raised
this year. An increase in chicken production beyond what now seems probable
may cause readjustment difficulties for the poultry industry, especially the
commercial hatchery and commercial broiler branches of that industry.

A national goal comparable to the goal for eggs has not been estab-
lished for turkeys, and turkeys are not included in that group of commodi-
ties for which price support has been announced. Present indications are
that more turkey hens will be saved for breeders this year than last, so
with favorable weather next spring the increase in turkey production may
approach 10 percent or more. Even with such an increase in production, it
is probable that turkey, prices in 1942 will compare favorably with. prices
received by farmers for the 191 turkey crop. In the material distributed
at the regional agricultural meetings in September, the 10-percent figure
was presented as a tentative estimate of the prospective increase in turkey
production in 1942 rather than a request by the Department that turkey pro-
duction be increased to that extent.

EGG SITUATION

REVIEW OF RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

Number of Layers 5-.5 percent Larger
Than a Year Ago

During the latter part of the past summer the average size of laying
flocks decreased less than usual because fewer old hens were sold. During
the past several weeks this year's pullets have been added to laying flocks
in increasing numbers and the excess of number of layers over a year earlier
has been increasing. On October 1 the average number of layers in flocks of
crop reporters was 5.5 percent larger than a year earlier and the spread
probably has increased further since that time. Compared to October.1, 1940
increases in layers by regions were as follows: North Atlantic 1.3 percent;
East North Central 7.7 percer:t; West North Central 7.0 percent; South Atlantic
3.0 percent; South Central 5.6 percent; and Western 1.2 percent.

Total Egg Production on October 1 Nearly
10 Percent Over a Y 'r T-.rlier

The average nu'.ber of eggs laid per hen on October 1 was 4 percent
larger than the previous record high of October 1, 1940. With 5.5 percent
more layers on October 1, total production was 9-7 percent greater than on
October 1, 194o. Or. S.rtember 1 the rate of lay was 3 percent over a year
earlier, making the average for September slightly more than 3 percent over
the previous record established in September 1940. Thus with an average of
2.5 percent more layers Dn farms in September, 6 percent nore eggs were pro-
duc-:. than in September 1040. September production this year was the largest
on :- ;od for the month. Increases over a year earlier occurred in all
region : .t were most rronoun.ced in the North and South Central States. The
egg-dryinr: industry is an important outlet for eggs now being produced in
those areas.







Egg production apparently is continuing larger than a year earlier.
Receipts at midwest primary markets in early October were more than twice
as large as a year ago and receipts at Pacific Coast primary markets are
continuing larger than in the corresponding period of 1940. Terminal mar-
ket receipts have been lighter than in 1940, however, despite increased
production and much heavier country marketing. This condition is attribu-
ted largely to the heavy egg-drying operations th?t are taking place to fill
Government orders.

Number of layers on farms, United States

Year Jan.: Feb. M,-r. Apr.: May June July Aug.Sept. Oct.: Nov.2 Dec.
Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Milii. Mil.
Average:
1930-39: 332 325 315 301 284 267 253 246 256 278 300 322

1938 : 307 301 292 278 262 248 236 234 245 2;9 293 314
1939 : 322 316 306 292 276 260 246 242 251 279 305 326
1940 : 332 327 318 304 289 270 252 217 257 279 303 320
1941 : 324 318 305 295 280 266 254 249 2o3


Average number of eggs produced per layer, United States

Year Jan.* Feb. Mar.* Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct.: ITov.: Dec.
No. No. No. No. No. TNo. No.. No. No. ITo. No7. Io.
Average:
1930-39: 6.6 8.9 14.3 16.7 16.8 14.2 12.7 11.2 8.9 6.8 5.0 5.2
1938 : 7.9 9.9 15.4 17.5 17.3 14.9 13.6 11.8 9.4 7.5 5.9 6.4
19 9 : 8.0 9.7 14.9 17.0 17.0 14.6 13.2 11.7 9.3 7.4 6.0 6.8
1940 : 7.2 9.0 14.4 16.5 17.0 14.8 13.4 11.3 9.7 7,9 6.2 6.8
1941 : 8.7 10.3 15.0 16.9 17.4 15.1 -13. 12.2 10.0


Total farm reductionn of eggs, United States

Year : Jan.: Feb." Mar.: Apr.: May : June: July: Aug.:Sept.: Oct.: Tov.: Dec.
: Mil. Mil. Mil. :1. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil.
:cases cases cnsr- cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases
Average:
1930-39: 6.0 8.0 12.5 13.9 13.2 10.5 8.9 7.6 6.4 5.2 4.1 4.7

1938 : 6.7 8.3 12.5 13.5 12.6 1O.- 8.9 7.6 6.4 5.6 4.8 5.5
1939 : 7.2 8.5 12.6 13.8 13.0 10.6 9.l 7.3 6.5 5.7 5.1 6.1
1940 : 6.7 8.2 12.7 14.0 13.7 11.1 -.1 7.0 6.1 5.2 6.0
1941 : 7.9 9.1 12.8 13.9 13.5 11.1 9.7 3. 7.4

Agricultural Marketing Service data.


PES-58


- 7 -






OCTCBER 1q41 g -

Eg Drying Output Continuing at Record Levels

Production of dried .eggs in recent months has been more than ten times
larger than a year earlier, Most of the outprt is being purchased by the De-
partment of Agriculture fo'r expcrt under the lend-lease program. During the
first 3 weaks in Octter 2..-| thin 9 million pounds of dried eggs were pur-
chased, making the total th~ ycar to date about 27.5 million pounds. The
approximate shell-egg o-ii."ant of all eggs nid egg products purchased by
.the Department to date this year total about 6-1/3 million cases. However,
part of the dried eggs were purchased for future delivery.

Purchases of eggs by the Department of Aericulture in 1941

Date Shell Frozen Dried
: Cases 1,000 pounds 1,000 pounds
Month: .
Jan. ............: 4,00 --
Feb. ........... 173,00
Mar. ............: 72,191 ---
Apr. ............: 3S6,925 -- --
May .............: .398,711 1.,527 840
June ............: 7,4U01 6,240 735
July ........... : 316,35 42,213 4,750
Aug ............: 90,736 2,205 6,525
Sept. ...........: S,150 -- 5,546

Week ended
Oct. 4 ..........: 23,600 -- 4,881
11 ..........: 3,35 -- 2,869
IS ..........: 17,200 -- 1372

Jan. I to Oct. 1I ...: 1,633,850 66,190 27,516

Surplus Marrcting Administration data.

Stocks of Shell Egs Now Only Sliehtly Smaller
Than a Yt-ar Ago; Frozer. Egg Stic.xs Are Much Larger

The net withdrawal nf shell eggs from storage during September was
only about one half as large as a year earlier and was the smallest in more
than 20 years. Total stocks of shell eggs in the United States on October 1
were 10 percent smaller than -on October 1-, 19L40. But after allowing for the
smaller holdings by the Departtment of Agriculture this year than last privately
owned stocks are only about 6 percent under those of a year earlier. On
September 1 privately o.med stocks were 11 percent smaller than a year
earlier.

The net withdrawal of frozen eggs from storage in September was larger
than in September 1040 but October 1 stocks were by fr the largest on record
for that date. Tot,-l holdings of frozen eggs on October 1 were about one
third larger than on October 1, 19140 and privately owned stocks were 14 per-
cent larger th-n those of a year earlier.





PES-58


Eggs: Storage stocks in the United States and
storage movement at 26 markets

: United States : Out-of-storage movement, week ending as of 1941
Year : stocks : Sept. : Oct. : Nov.
:Sept. 1 : Oct. 1 : 27 : 4 : 11 : 18 : 25 : 1
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
Shell : cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases
Average:
1930-39: 7,754 6,572 205 242 274 307 321 354

1939 : 6,598 5,430 201 250 263 329 296 359
1940 : 1/6,216 1/5,139 190 263 241 237 307 332
1941 : 1 5,512 914/,,837 84 110 133 179

Frozen :
Average:
1930-39: 3,352 3,036 --- .
1939 : 3,884 3,471 62 64 55 70 82 72
1940 : 4,162 3,737 64 58 86 64 78 81
1941 : 5/4,994 g4,247 28 57 55 57

Agricultural Marketing Service data.
:1 Excludes United States Department of Agriculture holdings as follows:
September, 19k)0 1,025,000 cases; October 1, 1940, 901,000 cases; September 1,
1941, 619,000 cases; October 1, 1941, 595,000 cases.
2/ Preliminary.
3/ Excludes United States Department of Agriculture holdings as follows:
September 1, 1941, 549,000 cases; October 1, 194l, 837,000 cases.

Egg Prices Remain Favorable for Egg Production

Wholesale egg prices in general increased during the last half of
September and early October. Fresh Firsts at Chicago increased about 2 cents
per dozen from mid-September to mid-October and are now about 10 cents (45
percent) higher than a year ago. Although the average price received by
farmers for eggs increased less than seesonilply from mid-August to mid-
September the feed-egg price ratio continued favorable for egg production.

Price per dozen received by farmers for eggs, United States

Year : Jan.: Feb.; Mar.: Apr.: Me.a : June: July: Aug.:Sept.: Oct.: Nov.: Dec.
15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15: 15
:Cents Cents Cents Cents 3ents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
Average:
1930-39: 22.8 18.8 16.1 16.0 15.9 15.7 17.0 18.7 21.9 24.7 28.2 26.3

1938 : 21.6 16.4 16.2 15.0 17.6 18.2 19.9 21.0 24.9 27.1 29.0 27.9
1939 : 18.8 16.7 16.0 15.5 15.2 14.9 16.5 17.5 20.6 22.9 25.8 20.5
1940 : 18.3 20.2 15.4 15.0 15.1 14.4 16.4 17.2 21.0 23.7 26.2 26.8
1941 : 19.7 16.8 16.4 19.7 20.1 23.2 25.6 26.8 30.3

Agricultural Marketing Service data.


- 9 -





OCTOBER 1941


- 10 -


Exports of eggs and egg products, United States,
by months, 1940-41

: Shell eggs : Egg products
Month :.. *10 : 1941 : 1940 : 1941
: 1,000 dozens 1,000 dozens *Pounds Pounds

Jan. ........: 284 327 7,554' j 34,522
Feb. ........: 212 293 21,461 17,5I4
Mar. .......: 363 359 23.121 77,252
Apr. ........: 746 88 1 ,903 36;,093
May .........: 796 7,490 16,602 14,847
June ........: 312 6,231 7,477 15,310
July ........: 320 5,722 7,776 9,249,852
Aug. ........: 334 921 14,iio 6,939,224
Sept. .......: 227 14,185
Oct. ........: 310 9,549
Nov. ........: 350 30,455
Dec. ........: 318 21,859

Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce data.

OUTLOOK EGGS

BACKGROUND.- The number of layers on ferms at the beginning of
1941 was about 2.5 percent smaller then a year earlier and de-
clined about seasonally during the early months of the year.
With very favorable egg prices during the summer, however, the
decline in number of layers was retarded and by August the num-
ber was slightly larger then a year earlier. The rate of lay
per hen this year has averaged 5 percent over the previous record
level established in 1940, and the total output of eggs in the
first three quarters of 1941 was 3.5 percent larger than in the
corresponding period of last year.

Record Large Egg Output is Fro.tible for this Winter

As this year's pullets come into production the total number of layers
will increase rapidly relative to a year earlier. And with normal weather
the rate of lay probably will continue even higher than the rate of late 1940
and early 1941. As a result the total output of eggs this coming winter
probably will exceed the previous record for that period established last
winter.

On October 1 the number of pullets not of laying age on farms was
about 13 percent larger than a year earlier. By regions the increases over
October 1, 1940 were as follows: North Atlantic, 13 percent; East North
central, .8 percent; West North Central, 8 percent; South Atlantic, 16 per-
cent; South Central, 23 percent; and Western, 26 percent. The increase in
pullets together with the larger number of old hens saved this year than
last is expected to result in an increase in layers of close to 10 percent
by January 1942 compared with a year earlier. With that increase in layers
for next year it is likely that egg production in the United States in 1942









will be close to the 4 billion oz-y.s est:2-bl'Xh:.- as a lesi'eble goal. This
estimate includes an -.llnwar.ce for no 'farm p.oii:cticn and is about 10 percent
larger than the priiobable output this year.

The eflActs or .gz ]rrces in 1'!-.2 rf +".e nr-sp -ctive larger s-ipplies,
however, are expected to t. or= t,5n of Ict by the -..ronger a'erare con-
sumer demand supnle7-en.. c .1 th2 D:'pertront r-chr-- .and price-sipporting
program. Supplies rf c.- eaailable for icm..-tic consum-ntion on a per
capital besis in 1942 -ill be Ps larre as the -verag6 for recent years, or
larger.

receints of dressed poultry -t four mnr":ets

(_____ew York, Chicago. Phi1'.-Ict.hia, 3osto:-)
: .-,c.c e:'i -is of 1 T
Year : Au-. : Senf. : Oct. : _:ov.
: 2__ : O : :1 20 : 27 : : 11 : 18 : 25 : 2q
:1,000 1, O' 1,010 ,c000 1,000 1, 00o 1,090 1, '0 1,C000 1 ,C00
:pounds pounds pounds p'Lnd f lur.-r3 ninds. pounOs ponds pounds mounds
Average: -
1930-39: 5,224 5,308 5,761 6, 83 6,627 6,772 7,233 7,337 7,641 13,76A

1939 : 5,24 .6,,1 6,h,34 7,371 7,c-r ?,,l 8,,526 7,733 8,435 12,471
1940 : 7,008 7,r47 7,979 8,4703 ,463 8.779 9,9581 10,27 9,796 16,50s
1941 : 6,591 7,499 9,912 g8,0o2 s,3,4 S,745 10,150 10, .'65

Agricultural MarKeting S'rv -ice c-.te.

i-UJLry SITUATION

REVIEW OF RECE17T rs-EVC "C TS

Rerard Hatchery Output ContinuinT

Production of chicics by commercial hatcheries in September was 79
percent larger thr.n a yerr earlier, marin.: the total f-r the first three
quarters of 1941 bout 26 percent larger t.lrn in tie. corre-sponding period
of 1940 end 15 rCrcer.t o--er the prre-ious record for the period" established
in 1939. Although a consider'-.ble n'-i:bar of cnics is beinr purchased to
obtain pullets, the main demand is from specialized broiler and fryer pro-
ducers. In September about 23 million ct.icxs were produced, of which S6
percent were of the heavy Urseds, thze c.in. uPie for broiler production.

Ma'rktinigs of Young Chickens Pt Record LcvC'ls

Receipts of young chic'Cens nt midv.-st primary markets have increased
materially in recent weeks. During th' wv c-k ended October 4 the volume was
the largest on record for -.ny week considerinG the number of r-lents report-
ing, even surpassing the peak of last Novenbc.r. Marketings of fowl have
increased also in recent weeks but are continuing smaller than those of a
year earlier.


- 11 -


rES-58










POUNDS
I MILLIONS I
40



30



20



10



0
CENTS PEP
POUND




15





13





11
CENTS PER
POUND




18





15





12


THE POULTRY SITUATION
---I --, POUNDS
RECEIPTS OF POULTRY I MILLIONS I
- AT FOUR MARKETS 60
60


JAN. APR. JULY OCT.
A M S DATA FIRST OF THE MONTH
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULfURE


0
POU N DS
MILLIONS J
60




40




20




0
POUNDS
MILLIONS I
60




40




20


AT A GLANCE


JAN. APR. JULY OCT.
INCLUDES BROILERS. FRYERS AND ROASTERS
NEG 39452 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
FIGURE 2









Storage Stocks of Young Chickens Increeasirg Lapidly

Reflecting the large marketing of young chickens, storage stocks
are increasing more rapidly than usual. Increases in stocks of fryers and
roeaters have been particularly pronounced. Storage holdings of these 2
classes on October 1 were the large: on record for that date, being
respectively 42 percent and 89 percent larger than a year earlier. Stocks
of broilers overe 39 percent lsar-er than a year earlier but were only bout
average for that date. Holdings of Cc Is were down 7 percent from a year
earlier and stocks of turkeys were.hl percent smaller than the record
October 1 holdings of last yar. October 1 stocks of all poultry on
October 1 were 6 percent larger thar. a yeer earlier.

Pcniltry: Storage stocks in the United States -:nd
storage movement at 26 markets

United States : Into-ctorpos moveuont, we.,: ending as of 1941
Year : stockss : Sept,, : Oct. : Nov.
: S' t. 1; Oct, 1 : 7 : : 11 : 78 : 25 : 1
1: :000 1,000 1,000 ', ) 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
: pand s pounds pouns pounds pounds pounds pounds Foundda
Average:
1930-39: 49,174 55,192 1,8Z.7 2,073 2,149 2,510 3,117 3,47

1939 : 62,570 63,164 1,549 441 5,262 2,452 3,03' 4,740
19 6 : 92.178 '0.42 2, 254 2,377 2,9=0 4,391 3,6.g1 ,41
1941 : 85,563 1/96,413 2,300 2. -s 4,76.2 4,776

Agricultural Marketing Service cdta..
1/ Preliminary.

Chicken and Fowl Prices 7eeken in Early October

Wholesale prices of fowl a-ni some classes of ::ounf chickens at Chicago
declined s2ig.htl;- durir- the first hal2 of Cct-.ber and by. the middle of the
mo-th avernagd little lower than in mid-Sc-fpttiber. Prices of so-e classes
of eightt ;'oun-g dickens, on the other hand, strengthened son.e.hat durin-
th .e period, The declines in prices s .' fowls and heavier chickens, ro doubt,
reflect increases in maer:etings of those particular classes. MIarketin.:s of
broilers ingneral farming area., are r.ade earlier than -narketings of fryers
and roasters. Desnite some declines, prices of live fo:]. and chickens in
general wer3 slightly higher t'.?n a ycgr earlier. Sessonrally adjusted prices
for all classes of fowls and chicker.n ere above the 15-cent long-term
support level announced ty the Depprtment last April.

The average price received by farmers for chickens in mid-September
was 19 percent higher than a year earlier and was 4 percent above parity.


PES -58


- 13 -




OCTOBER 1941 14 -

Poultry, live: Wholesale price, by classes, at Chicago, average
1936-40 and selected iatos 1949 and 1941

:Averago: ____ ]40 : i941
Class : o19 -40:p, D : : "eek ending
:_____o______._ Oct- *: Oct iOct.toct.11jOct..1
: C-nts Cents Cunts c,.%rts Ceuts Certs Cents Cents Contse
Hens:
Over 5 pounds ........ 17.5 16.0 15.1 14.9 15.5 20.2 20.5 19.6 18.5
5 pounds and under ...: 14.6 16.0 13.1 12.6 13.5 19.4 19.3 17.4 16.7
Leghorn .............: 12.1 11.4 10.8 10.2 10.9 15.5 15.5 14.S 14.5
Spring chickens:
4 po Lids and over
Colored ............ 14.s 14.7 14.2 14. 16.5 16.5 16.0o 16.0 15.6
White Rock .........: 16.4 16.6 15.7 16.0o i.o 19.3 17.9 17.1. 16.5
Barred Rock ........: 16.2 16.6 15.4 15.4 17.6 18.2 17.8 17.4 16.1
Under 4 pounds
Colored ............: 14.6 14.5 13.9 14.3 16.1 16.9 16.6 17.0 17.0
White Rock ........: 16.4 16.3 15.8 15.8 17.7 18.4 1S.7 18.3 17.5
Barred Rock ........ 16.5 16.4 15.8 16.1 17.6 18.7 1S.6 19.1 18.0
Broilers:
2-1/2 pounds and under:
Colored ............: 17.'4 15.5 16.2 16.3 16.6 17.5 IS.1i 19.0 '19.0
White Rock ......... 19.2 17.5 18.1 1i.6 17.5 19.0 19.4 20.0 20.0
Barred Rock ........: 19.1 17.3 1E.0 18.7 17.9 20.4 20.7 21.2 21.0

Computed from quotations in Chicago Price Current.

Price per pourd received by farmers for live chickens,
United States

: Jan.: Feb.: Mar.: Apr.: May : June: July: Aug.:Sept.: Oct.: Nov.: Dec.
: 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 5 1l 1 :l 1__t 1__ : -1-5 : 15 : 15 : 15
:Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
Average :
1930-39 : 14.o 14.2 14.4 15.0 14.7 14.4 14.1 14.o 14.3 13.7 13.3 12.9

1938 : 16.7 16.0 15.9 16.2 16.1 15.7 15.0 14.2 14.3 13.6 13.6 13.6
1939 : 14.0o 14.2 14.3 14.4 13.9 13.4 13.7 13.0 13.6 12.7 12.4 11.7
1940 : 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.9 13.6 13.3 13.6 13.4 13.7 13.3 13.1 13.0
1941 : 13.7 14.o 14.4 15.7 16.3 16.3 16.8 16.3 16.3

Agricultural Marketing Service data.

OUTLOOK CHICKENS

BACKGROUND.- In 1940 about 11 percent fewer chickens were
raised on farms than in 1939. With a gradually improving
consumer demand in late 1940 and early 1941, chicken prices
began rising relative to a year earlier and chicken raisers
were benefiting from the most favorable price relationships
in some time. This led to a material expansion in







specialized broiler and fryer output and was instrumental
in bringing about a material increase in number of
chickens raised on farms this year compared to 14o0. The
Department' s chicken and c,,g price-supporting program
supplied the nocessrc..ry ; .r.d1ional incentive to keep
hatchorics operating rt record levels since' lact April.

Domestic Supplies of Chic'.-,'Ws L2rgost
on Record This Year

Marketing of this year's record chicken crop is under way and will
result in record or near-record receipts at least for the next few months.
Storage stocks probably will be built up corresponCingly. Chicken prices
may decline slightly further as marketings continue henvv and the seasonal
rise in prices may be later than usual because of the ij.-vy late marketing
in prospect. The record farm marketings for the next few months may be
supplemented by an even larger coencrcial broiler output than that of the
winter of 1940-41. Prices received by farmers for chickens, however, are
expected to average higher than those of a year earlier at least well into
1942.

Onlx a Moderate Increase in the Iatch
ia Desirable for 1942

In the material distributed at the four regional agricultural meetings
in September estimates of the probable chicken slaughter in 1941 and 1942
were presented. These estimates include tentative estimates of broiler
production as well as farm chicken production. The percentage increase
for 1942 compared to 1941 (13.6 percent) that was shown in the report refers
to the probable slaughter, not to the hatch that is expected.

The probable chicken slaughter for next year was estimated largely
on the basis of the price relationships in prospect. This year marked the
upturn of what may be another 3-year cycle and conditions in general favor
a further increase in 1942. The slaughter of farm chickens next year is
expected to approach 750 million head, about 10 percent more than the
probable slaughter in 1941. This level of slaughter will be closely
approached even if the number of chickens rnisod on farms in 1942 is no
more than 6 to 8 percent larger than the number raised this year, (In 1941
about 14 percent 100 million head more chickens were raised on farms
than in 1940.) Fowl marketing in 1942 very likely will'be larger than
they were this year, and numbers of chickens' on farms rnay increase only
moderately next year compared with a probable increase of 50 million head
or more during 1941. The total hatch, however, probably will increase more
than the number of chickens raised on farms because of the further expan-
sion in broiler production in prospect. Broiler production is increasing
rapidly, and while it is impossible to determine how much additional output
would be desirable in the long run it seems particularly hazardous to
materially expand permanent facilities at this tine. Production of other
moats (beef, pork, and lamb) during the next few years will be the largest
on record. Maintenance of favorable prices after 1942 under these
conditions is dependent upon a continued strong consumer demand for all
meats,


PES-58


- 15 -






OCTOBER 1941


Expansion of Poultry Industry Encouraged.
Primarily to Obtain Increased gg Output

An increase in chicken production beyond what now seems probable may
cause considerable readjustment difficulties for the poultry industry,
capecially; the commercial hatchery and commercial broiler branches. It
should be recognized, particularly, that expansion of the poultry industry
has been encouraged primarily to obtain larger supplies of eggs to meet an
increased demand. Maintenance of the 1942 level of number of layers in 1943
probably; would provide ample supplies of eggs after next year. That level
of layers could be maintained in 1943 even if the number of chickens raised
in 1942 wore. no larger than the number raised this year. However, it is
expected that the number of chickens raised on farms will increase for at
least a second year, as is usual following a decline such as occurred in 1940.

FEED SITUATION

The cost of poultry feed on the basis of wholesale prices at Chicago
declined steadily during the 4 weeks ended in mid-CctoLer." This decline
together with an advance in egg prices during th -jeriod resulted in a
reduction in the number of eggs required to buy 130 pounds of feed.

The combined supplies of corn, oats, and barle:, for 1941-42, plus
the 1941 production of grain sorghum are slightly larger than the supply
last year and 17 percent larger than the 192S-32 average supply. Supplies
of'wheat millfoeds for 194l-42 will be above average for recent years and
supplies of high protein feeds will be the largest on record. Because of
the prospective strong demand for feed from producers of livestock products,
however, prices of feeds during the coming crop year are expected to be
supported at the September 1941 level, or higher. But unless any advances
in feed prices are more pronounced than now seems likcly.tho food-ogg ratio
during the coming winter and spring period probably will be more favorable
than average and more favorable than during the early part of the 1940-41
season,

Feed-egg ratio at Chicago

(Dozens of eggs required to buy 100 pounds of poultry ration)
___Week ending as of 1941
Year : Jan.: Mar.: June: Aug.: Sept- : Oct.__ : Nov,
: 25 : 29_ 2g : 3_0 :13 : 20 : 27 : 4 : 11 : .18 : 25 : 29
:Doz. oz. Doz.. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Do Do Doz. Doz
Average:
1930-39: 5.70 6,6o 6.s6 6.07 5.76 5.78 5.65 5.16 5.00 4.s4 4.73 4,23

1939 : 6.65 6.35 6,71 6.13 6.59 6.66 6.39 6,10 P.79 5.29 5.13 5.6S
1940 : 5.38 7.59 7.57 .6.78 6.25 5.S7 6.02 6.17 6.19 6.21 5.95 4.53
1941 : 7.16 6.57 5.19 5.13 5,44 5.32 5.22 5.05 4.83 4.56

Agricultural Marketing Service data,


- 16 -





PEs-58 .. .. 17- '

DOMESTIC DEMAND

Industrial activity has remained nearly unchanged at a record high
level since mid-summer. This is being reflected in a slowing of the gains
in incomes of industrial workers, and further improvement in the domestic
consumer demand for farm products during the remainder of 1941 will be small.
But food-for-defense buying may be increased. Speculative or storage demand
will be influenced by developments in the consideration of price-fixing
legislation.

The demand for farm products in 1942 is expected to -be greater than
in 1941, although the improvement will not be as marked as it was this year
over 1940. A higher average level of business activity and national income
will stimulate the consumer demand for foods and textiles. Larger total
purchases of farm products under the food-for-dofonse program will further
improve the export situation. The strong speculative and storage demand
which has boon an important factor in the demand for farm products in 194l1
probably will continue at least to some degree. This outlook assumes con-
tinuation of the war, an expanded defense program, and broadening Government
controls over production and prices. (The 1942 outlook fcr domestic demand
is discussed in detail in the October issue of The Lemand and Price
Situation.)

The title of the new index of domestic demand presented in the
September issue of The Poultry and Egg Situation has been changed from
Nonagricultural Labor Income to Nonagricultural Employeest Compensation.
This change was made in order to avoid any confusion that may arise from
the fact that the labor income of entreprcncurs is not included.

Total nonagricultural employees' compensation,
United States

(Index numbers 1924-29 = 100)
: : : : : : : *
Year : Jan.: Feb.: Mar.: Apr.: May .June :July Aug. :Sept.: Oct.: INov.. Dec.
Average:
1930-39: 83.2 83.2 g4.1 g4.o 84.6 g4.6 gl.o 81.6 g4.o 86.1 84.9 85.7

1939 : 9 .4 94.6 96.6 95.5 96.9 98.9 94.7 96.6 100.1 104.6 104.7 106.5
1940 :101.4 101.1 102.6 102.8 104.7 105.3 102.4 o104.7 109.0 113.3 113.2 117.3
1941 :115.2 115.5 119.9 121.9 126.5 130.2 128.0 1/129.5

SAdjusted for seasonal variation
Average:
1930-39: 84.3 84.2 g4.o 83.6 83.8 g4.o 83.7 84.o 83.7 83.9 83.9 s4.o

1939 : 95.4 96.0 96.7 95.4 96.6 98.9 98.3 99.6 99.6 101.5 102.6 103.5
1940 :102.6 102.5 102.7 102.7 104.3 105.1 106.4 Iog.0 iog.6 109.9 110.7 114.1
1941 :117.3 120.1 120.6 121.6 126.4 129.4 131.2 1/131.8
Based on data from the Department of Commerce and the National Bureau of Economic
Research.
This index was previously called Nonagricultural Labor Incomno See text for
discussion.
I/ Preliminary.




OCTOBER 1941


In last monthIs issue, annual index numbers of nonagricultural labor
income (now nonagricultural employees' compensation) were presented on. a.
1924-29 base. The series on a 1910-14 base may be of interest to some readers.
These data are presented in the following table:
Nonagricultural employees' compensation

Index numbers (1910-14 = 100)
: Nonagricultural em- : : Nonagricultural em-
Ye- r -ployees' compensation: Year :ployees' compensation

1909 : 85.6 : 1925 : 246.5
: 1926 : 262.9
1910 : 92.6 : 1927 : 265.6
1911 : 93.7 : 1928 : 270.8
1912 : 100.2 : 1929 : 287.0
1913 : 107.5 2
1914 : 106.o : 1930 : 260.9
1915 : 110.7 : 1931 : 220.6
1916 : 128.5 : 1932 : 172.7
1917 : 146.S : 1933 : 162.5
1918 : -14.2 : 1934 :18.4
1919 : 200.7 : 1935 : 204.3
S: 196 : 232.6
1920 : 237.0 : 1937 : 255.1
1921 : 193.6 : 1938 : 241.o
1922 : 20o.3 : 1939 : 258.2
1923 : 237.3 :
1924 : 237.0 : q4o : 278.6

Based on data from the Department of Commerce and the Nation-
al Bureau of Economic HRecf-rch.
TURKEYS OUTLOOK

The number of turkeys raised on farms in 1941 is expected to be Pbout
33,553,000 head compared with 33,'463,000-h:rd raised in 1940 excluding the
more thrmn million birds lost in n. stori. lanst year. (These birds are- not
included in the number raised in 1940 ev.n though they were killed only a
week or so-before most of them would have been marketed.)
Turkeys: Number raised, by regions, 1933-3.7 average
rnd 1938-41

: Im__ ber raised : Nunber : Indicrted
Geographic : : : : :r;-ised in : number
division : Average : 191939 1940 :194l as : raised
:1933-37 : : :pct. of : in
: : : : ____lql:o : 1941
:T-hourpnds Thousands Thous-nds Thouarnds Percent Thousands
N. Atlantic : 1,339 1,661 2,072 2,llJ 105.3 2,229
E.N. Central : 2,186 2,692 3,370 3,731 95.4 3,559
W.N. Central : 6,703 7,829 10,225 10,614 107.5 11,407
S. Atlantic : 2,145 2,166 2,54.- 2,600 100.0 2,599
S. Central : 5,971 5,s69 6,670 6,570 87.8 5,767
Western : 5,416 6.62 J, g 82 102.07,992
United States : 23,760_ 26b,279 3232 _-_ 100.3 335,553,
Agricultural Marketing Service .-athLhindicatrd by change in numbers r ortedl'int
smNe flocks on Set. 1, 1941 (data for Sept. 1, 1940 were adjusted to allow
for NEov. storm Tossbs^.'^ *


* 18is -







The average weight of turkeys has again increased this year and by
marketing time the average size is expected to be about 1/4 pound heavier
than in 1940. Despite this increase in weight per bird and a slight increase
in numbers raised the supply of turkey meat may be slightly smaller this
fall and winter than last. More turkeys will be carried over into 1942 than
were carried over into 1941, and cold storago holdings this fall are 6
million pounds (41 percent) smaller than in the fall of 1940. Storage stocks
of turkeys were reduced materially during the past summer and early fall.

Prices received by farmers for the 194l turkey crop will average
materially higher than for the 1940 crop and cash farm income probably will
be the largest on record this year.

Price per pound received by farmers for live turkeys, United States

: Jan.: Fob.: MaCr.: Apr.: May : June: July: Aug.:Sept.: Oct.: Nov.:Dec.
Ye r: 15 : 15 :15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15
:Cents Cents Cents Cents C-nts Carnts Cnts C nts Cents Cents Cents Cents
Average:
1935-39: 17.2 16.8 16.5 16.2 15.5 lb.7 14.6 14.4 15.3 16.1 17.2 17.5

1938 : 17.5 17.7 17.2 17.0 16.4 15.6 15.7 15.0 16.0 16.5 17.1 g1.4
1939 : 18.3 17.5 17.6 16.9 15.6 14.7 14.4 14.3 15.4 15.3 16.0 15.6
1940 : 14.2 14.o 13.7 13.5 13.2 12.9 12.9 13.4 14.3 14.7 15.5 15.9
1941 : 15.5 15.1 15.2 15.5 15.4 15.4 15.3 16.1 17.5

Agricultural Marketing Service data.

Turkey Production Expected to be Mr..trirlly
Larger in 1942

A national goal comparable to the gorl for eggs has not been estab-
lished for turkeys, and turkeys are not included in that group of commodities
for which price support has been announced. But turkey-rnising this year
was more profitable than in several years :.nd because continued favorable
prices are in prospect a material increase in turkey production is expected
in 1942. Indications are that more hens will be saved for breeders this year
than last, so with favorable weather next spring the increase in turkey pro-
duction may approach 10 percent, or more. Turkey prices are expected to
continue relatively favorable for turkey producers in 1942 because of the
larger consumer incomes in prospect.

DIFFERENTIALS BETWEEN WHOLESALE PRICES OF SPECIFIED BREEDS OF
FOWLS AND CHICKETS AT CHICAGO, 1930-31 TO 1940-41

In the June issue of The Poultry and Egg Situation a series of whole-
sale prices for specified classes of live fowls rnd chickens at Chicago was
published. In the July and August issues a discussion was given of the
trends and seasonal variation in the price differentials between specified
market classes of fowls -and chickens. This article discusses trends and
seasonal variation in the price differentials between specified breeds of
fowls and chickens.


PBS-58


- 19 -









CHICKENS. LIVE: DIFFERENCES BETWEEN WHOLESALE PRICES OF
SPECIFIED HEAVY BREEDS AND MARKET CLASSES, CHICAGO
BARRED PLYMOUTH ROCK MINUS WHITE PLYMOUTH ROCK BROILERS


CENTS PE
POUND
2



0



-2

4



2



0

4



2



0

4



2



0

6



4







0


U.S DEPARTM NT OF AGnIAULTuAE


NEG 9l610 BUREAU OF &ARICULTURAL ECONGMICB


FIGURE 3


BARRED PLYMOUTH ROCK MINUS COLORED


'FRYERS
_ Average seasonal _RYERS
trend



... \*I

__^ -I I__ ----------------




PES-5S


- r) -


A series of prices on light (Leghorn) hens is also included. This
series was not available when the oth-r price series wees published in the
June issue.

Most of the discussion in preceding articles dealt with the Barred
Plymouth Rock and Colored breeds. A study of weekly prices indicates that
since 1937 prices for Barred and Whio' Plymouth Rocks have averaged about
the. same for all classes of young chickens. Differences occurred from day
to day end week to week but followed no consistent pattern. In earlier years
consistent differences between quotations for Barred and White Plymouth Rocks
were evident.for broilers but iot foi the other market classes.

Differenti-als Between the Heavy Breeds of Chickens

Figure 3 sho:-.s average seasonal variation in price differentials
between specified h,:nvy breeds of chickens for specified market cL sses.
The seasonal variation in the price ediferentials between bre-ls is much
less pronounced than in the price di-'_.rntials betwe:.n market classes dis-
cussed in the previous article.

There apners to boeno deficit seasonal variation in the price
differnntir is between Brrrcd -nd White Plymouth Rock broilers, even in
oPrlier years. The differential between Plymouth Rock (White or Ba.rted)
and Colored broil.crs usually has rerchod a. maximum in September, declines
slightly until D-comber or Jnnu-ry, incre:Lses slightly until March, declines
sharply in April and then increases until S2Dtember. The differential be-
tween Barred Plymouth Rock and Color-I fry-rs tenr. to increr.se from April
to July ani declines slightly in Au:- and September. For light roasters
the differential between Barred Plymouth Rock nid Colored birds follows a
trend similar to that for broilers but th: s.-l11I st ,'iffcrentiil usually is
in December while for broilers the smrllest Jiffr`-r.-ntirl usually is in the
spring. Prices of iheanv: rotsters hr- beer quote i throughout the year only
from August 1939 to May 1941.. Ther-fore, rn avcre_, seasonal for the price
lifferentin. between Barred Ply.mout' Rock- :.r.d Colored h-'.vy roapters was
determined only for the months ,August through January. The averrge diffor-
ential declin-s rom A-i.-ust to Tove,.... r a-nd increr.scs sliS.tly in December
and Janmurry. Hoy-ever in both 1939-40 ar.i 1940-41 the differential increased
conside.rrbl- from rove.ber to K:-.rch, a.w in 1I40-41 rnrl 1941-42 the differ-
ential declined. sharply from March to May or June.

The amount of seasonal varir.tion: in: the differentials between. B-.rrcd
Plymouth Rock nrA. Colored. chickens appears to bo much L-rger for hber,'
roasters thnn f-r the other -market c-L.ses. The difference b,.tween the
highest r-nJ the lowest mcnthl-r differ:ntial in the period Juno to :.y i910O-41
is about 2-1/2 cents for herc-.v~ roasters whereas the difference for each of
the other classes is less than l-l/- .:nts. If a period including April
1940 were used the contrast would be even more marked but that a.ppe.ars to be
a somewhat nbnornal month.

The following table shows average monthly differentials betw-ecn the
heavy breeds for specified market classes of young chickens for recent yaars.
The rvernges for Barred and White Plymouth Rocks haivc been assumed to be the
sane. The average differentials have been determined by the nethcd outlined
in the July issue cf The Poultry -nd Egg Situation.




OCTOBER 1941 22 -

Averace wholesale price spreads at Chicago between Barred or White
Plymouth Rock and Colored breeds, specified market classes, by
months, cents per pound

Market *
class -Apr.; May 1Jine .July Aug..Sept. Oct.: Nov.1 Dec.1 Jan.. Feb.: Mar
class : .. o -ec.
:Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents.

Broilers : .50 .60 .90 1.20 1.30 1.85 1.60 1.4o 1.25 1.25 1.45 1.55
Fryers : 1.40 1.50 1.90 2.40 2.10 2.10 --- --- --- --- --- ---
Light
roasters: 1.45 1.50 1.60 1.90 2.20 2.20 1.60 1.30 1.25 1.45 1.60 1.85
Heavy
roasters: 2.15 2.15 1.55 .0O .95 1.60

Averages comnuted from compilation of daily prices from the Chicago Price Current.

The differential between prices of Barred and White Plymouth Rock
broilers declined steadily from 19~4-35 to 1940-41. For the months April
through September -nd February and M1arch end the years 1933-34 to 1934-35 the
differential av:'raged 1.17 cent- per pound, for the years 1935-36 to 1936-37,
0.52 cent and for the yeO.rs 1937-3S to 1939-40, 0.03 cent. As is shown in
figure 3 the average differential by months for the years 1933-34 to 1935-36
fluctua.tad around 1 cent while in recent yor.rs the differential has fluctuated
around zro.

Tho diff-rentinl between Barred Plymouth Rock r.nd Colored broilers
has tended to decline since 1933 but the trend has been irregular and not
pronro'unc-d. In the case cf both light end heavy roasters, however, a definite
upu.ard trend is evident in the differontivl between Barred Plymouth Rock and
Colored birds. For the months July through December and the years 1931-32
through 1933-34 the differential for light roasters averr.ged 1.34 cents per
pound -and for the years 1937-3S through 1939-40, 1.89 cents. For heavy
roDzters the differential for the months October through December and the
years 1931-32 through 1937-34 nverrILg 0.73 cent lnd for the years 1937-38
through 1939-40, 1.26 cents.

Differential Between Leghorn rnd. Heavier Breeds

The excess of prices of medium heavy hens over prices of light (Leghorn)
hens increases slightly from M-y to July, levels off until September, declines
sharply until November, incrccaes oh.--rply until January, and then gradually
declines until May. The differential usually reaches a low for the year in
November and a pea]-: in January.

Prices of light Leghorn broilers are usually quoted only from May to
August. The price differential betwoon this cl-ss and Colored broilers usually
declines Fteadily r.s the season a.dv.nces. Prices of her.vy Leghorn broilers
are frequently quoted from April through Septzmber. The excess of prices of
this class over Colored broilers usually declines from April to May, levels
off until August, r.ni then increases sharply in September. Prices of Leghorn
chickens are usually quoted from September or October to Fobruary. The
excess of the price of Colored light roasters over Loghorn chickens usually








increases steadily as the season advances. The differential between Colored
light roasters and Leghorn chickens fluctuates much more during the year than
do the other differentials between the Leghorn and Colored breads, the differ-
ence between the low and the high mon-'-h being about 5 c-nt3 whereas for the
other price spreads the diff,reoo.ce is only 2-1/2 cents or less, Average
differentials by months for r-,-cjnt years are shown in the following table.

Average wholesale pr-ice spreads per pound at Chicago between Colored
and Leghorn br'eeds, specified market clar&scs, by month

: Hons : Broilers : Colored light
Month Mediuam heavy : Colored minus Colored minus roasters minus
minus litt : light Leghorn : heavy Leghorn Leghorn
: Leghorn) : __: chickens
: Cents Cents Cents Cents

Apr. : 2.68 --- 1.75 ---
May : 2.46 2.30 .90
June : 3.35 1. .90 .
July : 3.51 .40 .o ---
Aug. 3.64 .20 .70 .
Sept. : 3.55 --- .2.20 --
Oct. 2.58 --- --- 1.00
Nov. : 1.9-- --- 2.20
Dec. : 2.44 --- --- 3.80
Jan. 3 4.20 --- 4-70
Feb. 3.50 --- --- 5.95
Mar. : .21

Averages computed from compilation of daily prices .from the Chicago Price
Current.

The price differential b-tween medium heavy rad light hens has tended
to increase since 1934. The avorngp differontinl from 1032-33 to 1934-35 was
2.33 cants whereas from 1935-36 to 1940-41 the differential averaged 3.17
cents. On the oth3r h.-nd the differential b.:tween Color,'d '-nd Leghorn broil-
ers has tended to decline. TILe price differential between Colored and light
Leghorn broilers for the nonthls M,;. through Augu.t declined from 5.23 cents
in 1930 to an a.ver"t.e of 2.11 counts in 1932 to 1937, eani vas only 0.63 cent
in 1940. The price differential between Colored and heavy Leghorn broilers
for the s-me months declined from 3.99 cents in 19-0 to an -.ver.ng- of 1.02
cents in 1932 to 1957 nnd was only 0.31 cent in 1939. There has been no
regular trend in the size of the diff.ren-ti-il between Colored light roasters
and Leghorn chickens.

Results of An. ysis of Various Torts

Month-to-month differences in the price spread between Barred and
White Plymouth Rock broilers were net ziniifics.nt but ;,:,?r-to-year differences
were significant. Month-to-month differences in the price spreads between
Barred Plymouth Rocks -nd Colored bre.ds v'ere significa-nt for nil classes of
young chickens. Year-to-year differences were significant for nll market
classes except fryers.


PEs-5S


- 23 -




OCTOBER 1941 24 -

Month-to-month differences in the price spreads between the Colored
and Leghorn breeds were significant for all classes. Year-ti-year differences
were significant for all classes oxcopt between Colored. and heavy Leghorn
broilers.

R. J. FOOTE.

Light hens, live: Wholesale price per pound at Chicago, 1930 to date 1/

Year :Jan. :Feb. :Mar. :Apr. May Jun- July Aug. Sept.: Oct., Nov., Dec.
: Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct.

1930 :25.21 26.23 27.79 27.07 23.34 21.25 --- --- --- 15.58 14.68 14.72
1931 :19.17 20.014 22.27 23.24 20.12 18.75 --- 18.36 16.91 14.56 13.48 13.04
1932 :16.48 17.61 16.78 16.38 14.69 12.60 13.74 14.68 14.07 11.08 10.42 10.52
1933 :12.39 12.71 12.95 12.40 12.46 10.04 11.32 10.07 9.68 8.58 7.82 9.12
1934 :11.92 13.82 15.00 15.75 13.87 12.hL 12.10 12.87 l4.14 12.27 11.71 11.56
1935 :16.25 18.19-20.17 20.27 19.11 17.58 15.50 17.65 18.31 17.30 16.6s 15.50
1936 :21.81 23.06 22.92 22.10 19.88 19.29 17.72 16.90 15.84 14.40 12.90 12.60
1937 :18.31 17.69 19.75 19.74 17.98 16.94 18.49 20.02 19.12 18.31 16.92 17.75
19356 22.36 20.98 22.65 21.79 20.25 18.50 17.44 16.82 1i.S2 1L.4g 13.44 13.97
1939 :17.63 18.33 1.-fC 17.50 15.54 1 4.72 1h.76 1.514 Ih.72 12.59 11.24 11.83
1940 :14.94 16.96 16.50 16.56 16.28 13.71 15.?8 14.? J 15.95 13.12 12.62 13.52
1941 :17.95 1S.45 20.50 21.57 20.26 20.56 21.',2

Averages computed from compilation of daily prices from the Chicago Price
Current.
I/ Includes Leghorn and other light-w-eight fowls.

Sales of turkeys, price nnd cash farm income received for
turkeys, United States, 1929-40

(Data for neg 64) 0)
: Sales, live .
Yeir : "eight : Price per pound : Cash farm income
: Million pounds Cents 1.000 dollars

1929 : 194 25.4 47, 73
1930 : 204 20.5 41,999
1931 208 l'.5 39,906
1932 : 266 11.8 33,986
1933 :305 11.4 35,607
1934 291 14.9 44,157
1935 270 19.5 54,149
1936 : 369 14.s 58.301
1937 : 353 17.6 64,401
1938 358 17.6 64,259
1939 : 422 15.4 68,125
1940 496 15.5 76,345

Agricultural Marketing S rvice data.







PES-58


- 25 -


Turkeys: Sales, by regions, United Stvtes, 1929-40


____~__ _____(Data for n. 52) ______________
rorth : East : Test : Sctth South United
Year : :,l : North : HIorth : c.th : South Western te
sAtlantic Ata.mntic C-.itrtl states
Atri: Centrl. : Central : A t C :
SMillion 1Mill1in Million Million killion Million Million
pounds poT:-.is pounds pouns pyonds pounds pound pounds


Average :
1929.58.:


1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
194o


....,:*
i....:
.....:*
.....:*
***. *
.....:
.....O*



o.....:
*~o.


15.0

6.2
8.2
9.2
11.8
14.3
16.3
17.5
21.6
21.6
23.8
23.4
31.9


23.8

9.3
11.0
12.9
18.4
24.8
28.1
25.9
36.4
34.1
37.0
44.5
54.9


76.6


47.1
48.5
49.6
69.0
89.5
80.2
735 .
109.2
94.4
105.2
129.3
155.0


24.7

16.5
20.9
17.
23.3
25.8
27.2
27.2
29.2
30.1
2-.6
32-3
36.3


71.7

60.7
61.3
6,.'
go ,4
84.1
71.1
6o .9
80.1
81.9
73.9
79.5
87.3


69.9

54.5
53.7
56.2
62.6
66.2
67.3
65.4
92.5
91.2
89.3
107.0
129.9


281.7

194.3
203.6
208.2
265.5
304.7
290.2
270.7
369.0
353.3
357.S
421.0
495.3


Agricultural Marketing Service data.







POUNDS
I MILLIONS
50


UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
1III1111 IIIIIII1I
3 1262 08904 0598
TURKEYS LIVE: SALES BY REGIONS. UNITED STATES. 1929-40







South
Central


0o __ _,-- --
1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941
U I DEPARFTUM T OF AgRICULTURE NKEG 1612 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIC
FIGURE 4


I





i
II .