Poultry and egg situation

TH"^j7 SITUATION

BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
PES-56 AUGUST 1941


EGGS: PRICE AT CHICAGO. PRICE RECEIVED BY FARMERS. AND FARM
PRODUCTION. UNITED STATES. AVERAGE 1930-39. AND 1940-41


A M K DATA
st Di.ImStUi 1 DASIICULTUIE *-1 19I *UPS Nu U OF .&CULTimaL Icomou.,.
EGG PRICES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE WELL ABOVE A YEAR EARLIER
DURING THE REMAINDER OF 1941. THE EFFECT ON PRICES OF THE IN-
CREASE IN SUPPLIES OF EGGS OVER A YEAR EARLIER WILL BE MORE THAN
V" OFFSET BY LARGER CONSUMER BUYING POWER AND GOVERNMENT PURCHASES
OF EGGS. EGG PRODUCTION DURING THE FIRST 7 MONTHS OF THIS YEAR
WAS ABOUT 3 PERCENT LARGER THAN IN THE CORRESPONDING MONTHS OF
-. 1940, AND THE EXCESS OVER A YEAR EARLIER WILL INCREASE AS THIS
: YEAR'S PULLETS COME INTO PRODUCTION.
":E











EGGS
I DOZENS )

8


7


6


5


4
CASES
I MILLIONS

8


6


4


2


0
NUMBER


16



12



8



4


U. S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


NtEG. 39451 BUREAU OF.AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE I


COME

I


THE EGG SITUATION AT A GLANCE
I I I PERCENT NONAGRICULTURAL I
CHICAGO FEED-EGG RATIO PAYMENTS*
(1924-29=100)
-1941 120 -
1940- 1941-

-- 110 -0 1940,


100


Average 90 Av
1930-39 19,3

80 I- I I- I- I- I
I I I CASES I
U. S. STOCKS OF SHELL EGGS I MILLIONS) U.S. STOCKS OF
I FROZEN EGGS'
Average_
1930-39
4 1941




2 9Average
1940- v 2 1930-39

-1941 ---


I I I NUMBER I I
EGGS PRODUCED PER LAYER (MILLIONS) LAYERS ON HAD
1941
0 325 ---

S1941 1940
1940 300 -




75 VA Average
___ Average 1930-39
1930-39 250



225
JAN. APR. JULY OCT. JAN. APR. JULY
A. U. S. DATA. EXCEPT NONAGRICULTURAL INCOME PAYMENTS.
INDEX NUMBERS. ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION. SERIES REVISED JULY 21, 1941
* FIRST OF THE MONTH. EXCLUDES U. S D. A. HOLDINGS. BEGINNING APRIL I. 1940
t FIRST OF THE MONTH. EXCLUDES U. S. D. A. HOLDINGS, BEGINNING JULY I. 1941




PES-56


- 3 -


TEE POULTRY AND EGG SITUATION



: In this issue: Wholcsale'prices of live fowls :
: and chickens at Chicago: Indexes of seasonal
: variation, and price differentials between vari- :
: ous market classes Qf chickens,

Summary

Egg production is expected to continue larger than a year earlier

during the remainder of 1941. The number of layers now on-farms is larger

than a year ago and numbers will increase rapidly relative to a year earlier

during coming months. An increase in layers of 10 percent over a year

earlier is expected by January 1942. The rate of lay on August 1 was 3

percent higher than a year earlier and the highest on record for that date.

With normal weather, production per hen is likely to continue at near-

rocord levels because of the prospective favorable feed-egg ratio. Egg

production in July was 4 percent (360,000 cases) larger than in July 1940.

Receipts of eggs at central western primary markets since August 1 con-

tinued from half-again to nearly twice as large as a year earlier.

As a result of the much higher egg prices this summer than last,

farmers probably have been selling a larger proportion of current egg

production than they did in the summer of 1940. The proportion of pro-

duction marketed can be increased primarily in two ways -- by better care

of eggs on farms ana by consuming fewer eggs in farm households. Whole-

sale egg prices in mid-July were continuing about two-thirds higher than

a year earlier. Egg prices in general are expected to continue well

above a year earlier during the remainder of 1941, but in view of the

relative increase in production in prospect the fall rise in prices this

year may be relatively less than usual.

Storage stocks of eggs on August 1 (about the date of the usual

seasonal .peak in holdings) were about the same as on August 1, 1940.






AUGUST 1941 4 -

Stocks of shell eggs wore down 15 percent from a year earlier but stocks of

frozen eggs were 26 percent larger. Excluding United States Department of

Agriculture holdings for both dates, the changes were less marked; shell egg

stocks were only 5 percent smaller and stocks of frozen eggs were a little

over 24 percent larger. No data are available on stocks of dried eggs. The

Department of Agriculture up to mid-August this year had purchased almost

4-1/2 million cases of eggs (approximate shell-egg equivalent).

Market supplies of young chickens are increasing considerably and in

early August farm marketing wore nearly twice as large as a year earlier.

Receipts of fowls at central western markets recently increased slightly

but wore continuing nearly one-fifth smaller than a year earlier. Reflect-

ing increased farm marketing, wholesale prices of li-c fowls and chickens

at Chicago in general declined slightly from early July to mid-August. The

number of chickens being raised on farms this year is about 14 percent

larger than in 1940 and commercial broiler production has increased oven

more. Because of the stronger consumer demand, however, average prices

received by farmers for all chickens are expected to continue above those

of a year earlier.

Turkey production this year is now indicated to be 5 percent larger

than in 1940. Turkey prices, however, arc expected to continue well above

those for corresponding months of 1940.

August 20, 1941

FEED SITUATION

For the country as a whole, prospects for total 1941-42 feed grain
supplies continue favorable. Prospects for the 1941 corn and barley crops
improved during July whereas prospective oat supplies declined. One of the
largest grain-sorghum crops of record is in prospect. Corn and grain
sorghum production, however, may be reduced below that indicated on August
1 because of the drought in the western Corn Belt, Indications as of
August 1 point to a 1941-42 feed supply per grain-consuming animal unit
about as large this year as last and much larger than the 1928-32 average,






P3S-56


-5-


Wholesale prices of corn advanced from mid-July to mid-August whereas
prices of oats and barley declined during that period. Prices of the latter
two grains arc low relative to the price of corn.

Prices of byproduct and. high-protein fee.s advanced materially during
the past few months. The higher loan rates on corn and wheat, and the
increased demand for feeding dairy cattle and poultry, accompanied by the
seasonal decline in byproduct feed production, are largel,- responsible for
the advances. Feed prices in general now are in line with the new loan
values on corn and wheat, and production of byproduct and high-protein feeds
u'ill increase seasonally until late fall or early winter.

The food-egg ratio continues very favorable for egg production. In
mid-August about ono-third flower eggs were required to buy 100 pounds of
feed (based on Chicago prices) than a year earlier.

Feed-egg ratio at Chicago

(Dozens of eggs required to buy 100 pounds of poultry ration)

S:_ Week ending as of 1941 ______________
Year : Jan.: Apr.: June: July : August : Oct.
: 25 : 26 : 28 : 12 : 19 : 26 : 2 : 9 : 16 23 : 30 :. 25
Doz. zo.o Doz. Doz, Doz. D Doz. Doz Dz DoV Dfo Z
Average:
1930-39 5.70 6.71 6.86 6.98 6.76 6.59 6.44 6.58 6.43 6.20 .6.07 4,73

1939 : 6.65 6.65 6.71 6.37 6.05 5.76 5.35 6.05 6.15 6.33 6.13 5.13
1940 : 5.38 8.21 7.57 7.45 7.57 7.61 7.78 7.54 7.17 7.0L 6.78 5.95
1941 : 7.16 6.07 5.19 5.53 5.44 5.30 5.32 5.47 5.39


HATCHITGS

The commercial hatchery output of baby chicks in July this year was
about 33 percent larger than in July 1940. The total output for the first
7 months of this year was about 24 percent larger than a year earlier.
Increases over a year earlier occurred in every month this year but ,were
most pronounced in May, June, and July. The Mar- output was 26 percent"
larger than a year earlier and the June production was 69 percent over
June 1940. Because of the demands for chicks for commercial broiler pro-
duction during coming months, continued heavy hatchery production is
anticipated. The totil output of commercial broilers in 194l probably
will exceed 150 million birds,

The number of chickens raised on farms this year is now estimated
to be 14 percent larger than in 1940 and the figure may increase still more
as the result of late hatchings. The increases by regions are as follows:
North Atlantic 9 percent, East Iorth Central 10 percent, West North Central
17 percent, South Atlantic 13 percent, South Oentral 18 percent, and
Western 15 percent.







AUGUST 1941 6 -

EGG S I'ATiON

Number of layers now larger
than a e ago

Although thc. feed-egg ratio has been v3ry favorable for agg produo-
tion since late March, the effect on the nurbar of layers has been noticeable
only in the last 2 or 3 montl-s. Ordirnarily farmers remove relatively few
hens from laying flocks during the season of flus"= production but soil quite
freely beginning in eanly summer This ye-r the number of layers declined
about normally until :.May. Since then, however, the number has declined less
than usual and much less than it did last year. This has resulted almost
entirely from the sale of fewer old hens by farmers since few pullets are
added to laying flocks before late Auagust. The wholesale price of hens this
summer has been 4 to 5 cents (about one-third) higher than a year earlier.
Egg prices, however, wera about 10 conts (about two-thirds) higher than in
the summer of 1940. The feed-egg ratio therefore was relatively more favor-
able than the feed-hon price ratio. WitLout such a relationship, marketing
of fowl probably would have been much heavier.

The a-erage number of layers per farm flock on July 1 was only 0.2
percent larger than a year earlier. The decline in numb.-r of layers during
July was smaller than a year earlier. And by August 1 the excess over 1940
had increased to 1.5 percent. Some prullets from this year's early hatch
are being added to laying flocks now so the number of layer's probably is
being increased absolutely as well as relatively'. This development will
go on with increased momentum for the next several months.

iiunmbcr of lay-rs on farms, TJnited States
J:.e: :Au :Sct o
Year : Jan.: Feb.: Mar.: Apr.. May June July' Aug. Scpt.: Oct.: rov.: Doc,.
Mil. ELL. l il. Kill Lil. Lils Kill 1 I-Lil. K Ql
Average:
1930-39: 332 325 315 301 2g4 267 253 246 256 278 300 322

1938 : 307 301 292 278 262 24S 236 234 245 269 293 314
1939 : 322 316 306 292 276 260 246 242 253 279 305 326
1940 : 332 327 318 304 289 270 252 247 257 279 303 320
1941 : 324 318 308 295 280 266 254





PEs-56 -7-

Average number of eggs produced per layer, United States

Year Jan., Feb.: Mar.2 Apr.: Vay June: July. Aug. Sept. Oct. ITov.: Dec.
N iTo_. 11-.. _T2 'O Xeo.. iT N o. oo. q
Average:
1930-39: 6.6 8.9 14.3 16.T 16.8 14.2 12.7 11.2 8.9 6.8 5.0 5.2

1938 : 7.9 9.9 15.4 17.5 17.3 14.9 13.6 11.8 9.4 7.5 5.9 6.4
1939 : 8.0 9.7 14.p 17.0 17.0 14.6 13.2 11.7 9.3 7.4 6.0 6.,
1940 : 7.2 9.0 14. 16.5 17.0 14.8 13.4 11.8 9.7 7.9 6.2 6.8
1941 : 8.7 10.3 15.0 16.9 17.4 15.1 13.8


Total farm production of eggs, United States

Year Jan, Feb.: Mar. :pr. May : June: July Aug,Sept.: Oct.: iinv.* Dec.
: Mil. Mil, Ml. il. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil.
:cases cases cases cates cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases
Average:
1930-39: 6.0 8.0 12.5 13.9 13.2 10.5 8.9 7.6 6.4 5.2 4.1 4.7

1938 : 6.7 8.3 12.5 13.5 12.6 10.3 8.9 7.6 6.4 5.6 4.8 5.5
1939 : 7.2 8.5 12.6 13.8 13.0 10.6 9.1 7.8 6.5 5.7 5.1 6.1
194o : 6.7 8.2 12.7 14.o 13.7 11.1 9.4 8.1 7.0 6.1 5.2 6.0
r 1941 : 7.9 9.1 12.8 13.9 13.5 11.1 9.7


For the month of July about 0.6 percent more layers were on farms
than a year earlier and, with a 3 percent higher rate of lay, about 4 percent
more eggs were produced than in July 1940,. By regions the changes from a
year earlier in the July egg output were as follows: ITorth Atlantic, 5.3
percent; East North Central, 5.7 percent; West North Central 4,2 percent;
South Atlantic, 2.6 percent; South Central, 5.7 percent; and Western, 0.3
percent. Egg production in the United States in coming months is expected
to continue larger than a year earlier since the number of layers will
continue to increase relative to a year earlier and the rate of lay prob-
ably will be at least as high as a year earlier, if not higher.

The number of pullets on farms August 1 was 19 percent larger than
a year earlier. Increases by regions were as follows: North Atlantic
23 percent; East North Central 13 percent; West liorth Central 25 percent;
South Atlantic 11 percent; South Central 21 percent; and Western 19 per-
cent. Although the excess of pullets over 1940 may decline as the season
progresses, an increase in layers of about 10 percent over. a year earlier
is expected by January 1942.

.I.,. The increase over a year earlier in egg marketing this summer
appears to have been greater than the increase in production. This is
largely the result of the much higher egg prices this summer than last.
then egg prices are high, farmers tend to takc better care of their eggs
an& consume fewer in farm households. The latter is an important factor







AUGUST 1941 -

because nearly one-fourth of the people of the United States live on farms,-
and the per capital consumption of eggs by farm people is much higher than
for urban people.

Total storage stocks of eggs on August I
same as a year AM

A large into-storage movement for frozen eggs continued during July,
and on August 1 storage stocks were 9 percent larger than the previous
record high on July 1 and about 26 percent larger than on August 1, 1940.
Further into-storage movements of frozen eggs have occurred since August 1.
The Department of Agriculture owned 1,770,000 pounds of frozen eggs on
August 1 or about 1 percent of all frozen egg stocks on that date. Privately
owned stocks of frozen eggs on August 1 were 24.5 percent larger than on
August 1, 1940.

Total storage holdings of shell eggs on August 1 were 15 percent
smaller than a year earlier. On that date this year, however, the Department
of Agriculture owned only 239,000 cases compared with 1,068,000 cases on
August 1, 1940. Privately owned storage stocks of shell eggs were only 5
percent smaller on August 1 this year than on August 1, 1940.

Eggs: Storage stocks in the United States, and
storage movement at 26 markets

United States : Storage movomont
Year : stocks : wesk ending as of 1q941
July 1 : Aug. 1 : July : Aug. : Sept
Su i 26 : 2 : : 16 : 23 : 30 : 6
1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases
Shell:
Average :
1930-39 : 8,135 8,304 + 7 30 58 6g -- 90 -116 -143

1939 : 6,977 7,024 2 33 34 53 75 89 -156
194o0 : 16,580 1/6,716 + 69 + 4o 32 85 83 -125 -165
1941 : 1/6,100 1//6 1414 + 83 + 42 13 36

Frozen:
Average :
1930-39 : 3,465 3,536 -- -- -- -- -

1939 : 4,042 4,125 0 + 10 26 23 35 29 37
1940 : 4,296 4,427 + 16 + 9 14 22 31 36 50
1941 : 4,6842g/135,515 + 39 + 99 +158 + 7

]_ Excludes Surplus Marketing Administration holdings as follows: July 1, 1940,9
933,000 cases; August 1, 1940, 1,068,000 cases; July 1, 1941, 327,000 cases; and
;Aue 1, 3941, 239,000 cases.
2/ Preliminary.
5] Excludes Surplus Marketing Administration holdings as follows: July 1, 1941,
419,000 cases; and August 1, 1941, 51,000 cases.




PES-56 9 -

gg prices continuing much higher
than a year ago

Wholesale prices of fresh firsts at Chicago continued unchanged from
early July to mid-August at a level about 2 cents below the late June peaK.
In mid-August these prices were about 10 cents higher than a year earlier as
they had been for about 6 weeks. Reflecting continued heavy production and
apparently some restriction in the consumption of eggs in farm households,
receipts of eggs at central western primary markets are continuing much larger
than in the summer of 1940. During the week ended August 9,14eceipts of eggs
at these markets were 94 percent larger than a year earlier. Receipts at
Pacific Coast primary markets, though smaller than a year earlier, also are
increasing relative to receipts last summer.

The average price received by farmers for eggs in mid-July was the
highest for the month since 1929 and about 9 cents over a year earlier, the
same margin as in June. Egg prices will continue to be supported by the im-
provement in domestic demand conditions and by Department purchases under the
announced purchase programs. In view of the relative increase in production
in prospect, however, the rise in prices to the fall peak meay be relatively
less than in the corresponding months of 1940.

Price per dozen received by farmers for eggs, United States

Year : Jan.: Feb.: Mar.: Apr.: May : June: July: Aug.:S ept.: Oct. Nov.: Dec.
: 15 : 15 : 15 -5 5:15:l5 15 : 15 : 15 : 15
:Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Centt Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
Average: -=
1930-39: 22.8 18g. 16.1 16.0 15.9 15.7 17.0 18.7 21.9 24.7 28.2 26.3

1938 : 21.6 16.4 16.2 15.0 17.6 18i.2 19.9 21.0 24.9 27.1 29.0 27.9
199 : 18.8 16.7 16.0 15.5 15.2 14.9 16.5 17.5 20.6 22.9 25.8 20.5
19 : 18.3 20.2 15.4 15.0 15.1 14.4 16.4 17.2 21.0 23.7 26.2 26.8
1941 : 19.7 16.8 16.4 19.7 20.1 23.2 25.6


Purchases of eggs by the Department of Agriculture inL941

Week ending Shell : Frozen : Dried
Cases 1,000 pounds 1,000 pounds
Jan. 1 to Aug. 9 1,459,037 63,995 9,310
June 7 : 25,201 1,379 145
14 : 10,400 1,776 350
21 : 2,800 1,801 100
28 : -- 1,2893 140
July 5 5.980 13,810 1,583
12 : 50,000 2,683 210
19 : 140,398 13.835 1,930
... 26 91,695 8,616 66o
Aug. 2 54,987 3,273 366
9 4: 2,343 0 2,986
16 : 22,268 1,515 so3







AUGUST 1941


- 10 -


Eggs purchased by the Department of Agriculture to date this year are
roughly equivalent to nearly 4-1/2 million cases. A little less than 1-1/2
million cases were in shell form and the remainder in frozen and dried form.
In -this connection the following table showing the various conversion factors
may be useful.

Conversion factors for eggs

Yield of : 1 dozen: Requirements for:
:liquid eggs eld of 1 ound of dried: Yield of dried
Products : from 30 : shell eggs : e products : product from
: dozen : Liquid : Dried : Liquid : Shell :100 pounds of: 30 dozen
:shell eggs : eggs : eggs : eggs : eggs liquid eggs :shell eggs:
: Pounds Pounds Pounds Pounds Dozens Pounds Pounds

Whole epg /: 35.00 1.1667 0.3268 3.57 3.06 28.01 9.804
Albumen : 19.25 0.6417 0.0879 7.30 11.38 13.70 2.637
Yolk : 15.75 0.550 0.2386 2.20 4.19 45.45 7.158

The Egg-Drying Industry in the United States, Agricultural Adjustment Administration(
1938.
4/- Shell egg consists of 45 percent yolk and 55 percent albumen. Dried whole egg
consists of 73.1 percent yolk and 26.9 percent albumen.

POULTRY SITUATION

Marketings of fowl continuing smaller than a
year earlier but marketing of young stock
are much larger

The smaller receipts of fowls at midwestern markets in recent weeks
indicate that farmers are continuing to cull out fewer hens from their present
flocKs. During the 2 weeks ended August 9, receipts of fowl were about 20
percent under those of a year earlier. Marketings of young stock, on the
other hand, are increasing considerably rith each passing week. During the
weeK ended August 9, receipts of young stock at central western primary mar-
kets were 44 percent larger than a year earlier. With at least 14 percent
more chickens being raised on farms this year than last, marKetings of chickens
off farms in the next several months will continue much larger than a year
earlier. The large late hatch this year will result in a much heavier than
usual late movement of young chickens this coming winter. Receipts.of live
fowl may increase as some postponed marketing are made, but for the remainder
of the year young chickens will constitute a larger proportion of farm market-
ings than they did last yeer. Sales of fowls by farmers usually do not in-
crease after August, whereas marketing of young stock do not reach the season-j
al high until October and November.











POUNDS
( MILLIONS)
40



30



20



10



0
CENTS PER
POUND




15





13





11
CENTS PER
POUND



18





15





12


THE POULTRY SITUATION
I\ --I POUNDS
RECEIPTS OF POULTRY I MILLIONS)
- AT FOUR MARKETS 60

ou


JAN. APR. JULY OCT.
A. M. S. DATA FIRST OF THE MONTH
ILS. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


40




20




0
POUNDS
I MILLIONS )
60




40




20




0
POUNDS
1 MILLIONS 1
60




40




20


AT A GLANCE


JAN. APR. JULY OCT.
V INCLUDES BROILERS. FRYERS AND ROASTERS
NEC 3SMI BBaREA OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE 2







AUGUST 1941


- 12 -


Receipts of dressed poultry at four markets

(rI; York, Chicauo, Philadelphia, Boston)
:_ Weul: undirg as of _19_41
Year J.un : J-.l : August : Oct.
21 : 26 : 3i : 25 : 2 : 9 : 16 : 23: j0 : 25
:1,000 1,lGj 1,0O0 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
:pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds
Average :
1930-39 : 5,274 5,42s 4,392 4,ss80 4,876 4,942 5,093 5,224 5,308 7,641

1939 : 6.515 6.139 5,942 6,948 5,872 5,690 5,60S 5,624 6,081 8,438
1940 : 6,354 6,653 5,724 6,079 6,265 6,18s 7,54 7,uo08 7,547 9,796
1941 : 6,789 6,327 7,440 6,339 6,293 6,744 6,931


Storage hnllings of poultry now are
siaillr t:-i, a- year eali.:r

Stocks of poultry i. the United States declined about 4-1/2 million
pounds during July this year whereas they increased slightly during July 190.o
On the average, stocks decline about 2 million pounds during that month. Ir-
pcrtant contributions to the decline this year are thU record out-of-storage
movement for turkeys -2d the srallor increase in fowl holdings this year than
last. Stocks of you-n chic'kns on August 1 wore 70 prc-nt larger than a year
earlier. The incrnasc was distributed among th: separate classes as follows:
Broilers, 11 percent; fr'ors, twice as largo; and roasters, 2-1/2 times as
ln.ro. Stocks of fowl were 20 percent smaller on August 1 than on August 1
19hO and turkey stocks wore down about one-third. Stocks of ducks on August 1
of nearly 10 million pounds wore 19 percent larger thn-i a year earlier and
were the largest on record for that date.

Poultry: Storage stocks in the United States and storage
nove:iont at twenty-six markets

: United States : Storage novmeno:t, woek :-'ding as of 1941
Year : stocks : July : August : Sopto
: July 1 : Aug. 1 : 26 : 2 : 9 : 1 : 23 : 30 : 6
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
: poupounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds
Average :
1930-39 : 49,517 4,233 -228 -216 -37 -23 +98 +157 +436
1939 : 67,470 64,91C + 35 -441 -359 -69S -41S -819 -610
19e40 ; 82,336 U2,415 -355 41,122 -173 +32 4262 -834 4
1941 : 5.573 1/31.132 -07 -323 -263 + 413


I/ Prolimninry.






PES-56


- 13 -


Wholesale chicken and fowl prices in general
declined during past month

Prices of live ycung chickens at Chicago in general we-e "ower in
mid-August than a month earlier, reflecting the material increase in market-
ings during that time. Prices of most classes, however, are still hiigher
than a year earlier. Fowl prices declined 1 to 4 cents during the month,
the decline-being. more pronounced for the lighter weights than for the heavy.
As a result,' fowl prices now -are not as high relative to prices of young
chickens as they have been for the past few months.

Prices received by farmers for chickens very likely will decline sea-
sonally in coming months but probably will continue above those of a year
earlier.

Price per pound received by farmers for live chickens,
United States

Year : Jan.: Feb.: Mar.: Apr.: May :June :July : Aug.:Sept.: Oct.: Nov.: Dec.
: 1 : 15 : 15: 1l: : 15 : 15: 15: 1: 15 : 1
:Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
Average:
1930-39: 14.0 14.2 14.4 15.0 14.7 14.4 14.1, 14.o l4.3 13.7 13.3 12.9

1938 : 16.7 16.0 15.9 16.2 16.1 15.7 15.0 l4.2 14.3 13.6 13.6 13.6
1939 : 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.4 13.9 13.4 13.7 13.0 13.6 12.7 12.4 11.7
1940 : 12.0 12.2 12.8 12.9 13.6 13.3 13.6 13.4 13.7 13.- 13.1 13.0
1941 : 13.7 14.0 14.4 15.7 16.3 16.3 16.8


Turkey production larger this year than last

The number of turkeys that will be raised on farms this year is now
estimated to be about 5 percent larger than in 1940. This indicates farmers
changed their plans as the season progressed. Last February farmers indicat-
ed they would start about 3 percent fewer poults this year than last. The
prospective larger number to be raised appears to have resulted largely from
a later hatch of poults than in 1940. Evidences of the late hatch are that
poult output by commercial hatcheries was large late in the season and breeder
hens apparently moved to market later this summer than last. The number of
turkeys on farms a year ago was only slightly smaller than present numbers
but more than a million birds were killed in a storm in November 1940.

Despite the 5 percent larger number of turkeys being raised this year
than last, supplies of turkey meat may be only about the same as in 1940 since
breeding flocks probably will be expanded somewhat and many of the late hatch-
ed birds will not be marketed until early next year. Further, storage stocks
at the beginning of the turkey marketing season this fall will be smaller than
a year earlier.

Turkey prices at Chicago in mid-August were about 4 cents higher than
A, year earlier. The stronger consumer demand this fall than last is expected







AUGUST 1941 14 -

to more than offset the effects on turkey prices of any increase in market-
ings. The average price received by farmers for turkeys in mid-July (mostly
breeder hens) was 15.3 cents compared with 15.4 cents a month earlier and 12.9
cents a year earlier.

Price per pound received by farmers for live turkeys, United States

Year : Jan.: Feb.: Mar.: Apr.: May :June :July : Aug.:Sept.: Oct.: Nov.: Dec.
: 15 : 15 : 15 : 15: 15 : 1 : 15 15 : 15 15 : 15 : 15
:Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
Average:
1935-39: 17.2 16.8 16.5 16.2 15.5 14.7 14.6 14.4 15.3 16.1 17.2 17.5

1938 : 17.5 17.7 17.2 17.0 16.4 15.6 15.7 15.0 16.0 16.5 17.1 18gs
1939 : 18-3 17.5 17.6 16.9 15.6 14.7 14.4 14.3 15.4 15.3 16.0 15.6
1940 : 14.2 14.0 13.7 13.5 13.2 12.9 12.9 13.4 14.3 14.7 15.5 15-9
1941 : 15.5 15.1 15.2 15.5 15.4 15.4 15.8


DOMESTIC DEMAND

The domestic demand for farm products is expected to continue to in-
crease during the remainder of 1941, but the rate of improvement is likely to
be less marked than in recent months. Further expansion in output of defense
materials will be increasingly at the expense of durable civilian goods. Dif-
ficulties arising as a result of shortages of raw materials are likely to be-
come more numerous as defense efforts are accelerated, and they will act as a
brake on the rapid advance in industrial activity in evidence so far this year.
Indicated declines in the production of automobiles and other civilian goods
will tend to flatten out the trend of industrial activity during the next few ,
months. A temporary slight decline in the seasonally adjusted Federal Reserve
index of business activity may even occur. However, this should not be taken
as an indication of any fundamental change in the generally favorable demand
outlook as long as the war is in progress. Activity in many other lines of
business such as the service occupations will continue to increase. Consumer
purchasing power in general should continue to improve during the remainder
of the year.

Some people will have to set aside funds in preparation of payment of
increased taxes next spring, but the buying power of the majority of consum-
ers will not be directly affected. The limitation of the supplies of some
consumer goods such as household equipment will leave a larger proportion of
the money purchasing power to go for the purchase of "soft" lines of goods
including food and clothing, making possible a further increase in the con-
sumer demand for farm products even without further general gains in buying
power.








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AUGUST 1941


VT:OLSSAIE RIr:-S OF LITE FOWLM AD CCK-ICK.S AT CFICAGO: INDEX IJBERS
OF S.ASCI'AL VARIATION, AI'D 1.JC3 DIFFORElITIALS BETWEEN
V'ARiCJS VIARKrJT CLA-MlS OF Cr:TCiBN3 1
:i:
Ir the las+ t mo issues of tl'e Poultry .and E-g Situation series of
wholesale prices for specified classes of li-re forwls and chickens at Chicago
wvro publish'ri, together with a discussion of pric differentials between
heavy and nediiur heavy Liens and between henvy hr's end specified market
classes of the heavy breeds of yor.ng chic:c ns. 7-n thi. article index nu.-
bers of seasonal variation are given for t:.e ;rices of the various market
classes of fowls -nd chieckens and a discussion is i.Lven of tihe price dif-
ferentials b.ett,ee:-. specified classes of the heavy breeds of yungm chic-enre
A series of prices on light (Leghorn) hens is also included. This series
was not available v3ier 1A e cther price series vwre published in the June issue

Index numbers of seasonal variation

The following table shaws index numbers of seasonal variation for each
breed and market class of fowls ard chickens. These index n'.bers vere cal-
culated as follows: (1) The average monthly differential between heavy
hens and each class in a given breed was subtracted from the 10-year average
price of her.vy hens for corresponding months. This ga-.e ar average price for
that class and breed -for each month. As .vas mentioned in the preceding
article, a straight average prico could not be used because prices were not
quoted in all months of all years for any class except heavy hens. (2) An
annual average of the mortily prices was obtained fo3r each series. (3) The
average price for each rrm h was divided by the annual average price to get
the seasonal in.de for +bat rronth. These index numbers for all breeds and
market classes of live fowls and chickens except colored chickens are shoi.n
by months in figure 3S

The price of heavy hens tends to decline 'ron April to June, to in-
crease from July tc September, to decrease again until Novenber or December,
to increase in Jast.ar: to oe-,line slightly in Fe'-ruary, and then to in-
crease until A-ril. Su-.-h price -j.overents have occurred in almost every year
since 1930. The peak in Sertenter .ually is slightly higher than in April
and materially higher than in Janrairy. The lo.s in o'"-erber and December
usually are sliLhtly hipler than in June. Prices of rc-dium heavy hens tend
to decline from Arril to June, to level off from July to September, to de-
cline again until 1:ovemr)er ar.d then to increase fairly steadily until April.
Prices of light hens, including Leghorns arc' other light-weirht Lens, de-
cline steadily fror April to July, increase slightly in L!.gust and Septenber,
decrease until December and then increase until April. Highest prices for
heavy hens usually are paid in September while for n-edium heavy and light
hens, highest prices are paid in April. The seasonal variation in prices
of light hens is slightly more pronounced than for medium heavy hens, and
for medium heavy hens it is much more pronounced than for heavy hens.


" 16 -










FOWLS AND CHICKENS. LIVE: INDEX NUMBERS OF SEASONAL
VARIATION OF WHOLESALE PRICES OF SELECTED BREEDS
AND MARKET CLASSES, CHICPGO
PERCENT I
HENS
120 --Light--


Medium he avy


100 0- -



Heavy
80 i I I

BARRED AND WHITE PLYMOUTH ROCK CHICKENS




120 Light roasters


Broilers / -


100





80 Fryers .0 Heavy roasters





6 0 I I 1 I I I I I

LEGHORNS. UNDER 1 YEAR
120

Heavy broilers
Chickens





Light
broilers

8 0 ,ll I I I I
APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT. OCT NOV DEC. JAN. FEB. MAR. APR.
*INCLUDING LEGHORNS AND OTHBR LIGHT WEIGH S
U.5 DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULIuRE NEC 39454 BUREAU OF AGRICULTuRAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE 3










AUGUST 1941


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Prices of broilers have tended to decline from April to August, to
increase slightly from August through November, to decline in December and
then to increase until April. With increased production of commercial broil-
ers in recent years, however, the seasonal patterns for broiler prices have
changed somewhat. Prices of fryers decline from April to August, level off
in September, and increase from March to April, PI-ices frequently have not
been quoted from October through February and no quotations have been avail-
able since July 1939, Prices of Barred and White Plymouth Rock light and
heavy roasters decline steadily from April to november and increase from
December to April. Prices for these two series follow essentially the same
seasonal pattern and have a more pronounced seasonal variation than do
prices of broilers and fryers.

Prices of Colored chickens follow essentially the s ame seasonal pat-
tern as do prices of Barred and White Plymouth Rock chickens except in the
case of heavy roasters* Prices of Colored heavy roasters reach a peak in
May rather than in April and increase more slowly from January to April.

Prices of heavy Leghorn broilers decline steadily from April to
September. Prices of light Leghorn broilers decline from Eay to July and
level off through August. Prices of Leghorn chickens decline from October
to December and increase slightly through February*

Price differentials between specified
classes of young chickens

The same general method of analysis was used in studying the price
differentials between specified classes of young chickens as was described
in the preceding article with reference to the differentials between heavy
hens and specified classes of young chickens. Average differentials for
recent years between tha prices of the various market classes of the heavy
breeds of young chickens are short. in the following table.

Average price spreads per pound botvcoan specifiedd market classes of
live young chickens, Barred and lWhite Flymouth
Rock and Colored br'eds, by months

Fryers minus broilers
Item Apr.e May June: July: Aug. Sept.: Oct.: Nov. Dec. Jan.:Feb." Mar.
c Ct. C t. t Ct. C. -t. t. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct. Ct.
Barred and White: -
Plymouth Rock .: 1.10 1,75 1,50 1.40 .70 -.25 1.00
Colored ........: .20 .85 .50 .20 -.10 -.50
Barred and White: Light roasters minus broilers
Plymouth Rock .: 2.20 3.35 3.60 3.10 1.70 -.65 -2.70 -3.00 -.90 T~0 .40 .60
Colored ........: 1.25 2.45 2.90 2.40 .80 -1.00 -2.70 -2.90 -.90 0 .25 .30
Barred and Whito: Light roasters finus fryers
Plymouth Rock .: 1.10 1.60 2.10 1.70 1.00 -., 40.
Colored ........: 1.05 1,60 2.40 2.20 .90 -.50
Barred and White: Heavy roasters minus light roasters
Plymouth Rock .: .25 -.20 0
Colored .. ...... : .3.30 .30


- 19 -


PES-56










CHICKENS. LIVE BARRED PLYMOUTH ROCK: DIFFERENCES IN
WHOLESALE PRICES BETWEEN LIGHT ROASTERS AND BROILERS.
AND HEAVY AND LIGHT ROASTERS. CHICAGO. 1930-41


CENTS
PER
POUND

6




4



2



0



-2



-4




-6



-8
6



4




2




0



-2



-4


U. S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


NEG 39453 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE 4


I I I I I I
'LIGHT ROASTERS MINUS BROILERS,















-




----- ------------- -







I _-





. .. i .. .. .. .. i., I i .., ...1 i


HEAVY ROASTERS MINUS LIGHT ROASTERS




















1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942
1930 1932 2932 1933 2934 1935 1936 1937 1935 1939 1940 1941 1942






PES-56


- 21 -


The most striking aspect of these differentials is the sirmlarity of
their seasonal patterns. Each differential shows the relation betwren the
price for a given voight class and the price for a lighter weight class.
The differential paid for the heavier birds apparently varies in essentially
the same way throughout the year regardless ofI the absolute weights of the
birds, Norcovor, for the Plymouth Rock brooeeds the av3rago differential bo-
twoen fryors and broilers is almost the same as the average differential
between light roasters and fryers, the latter being slightly higher. How-
ever, for Colored chickens the average differential between light roasters
and fryers is considerably larger than betwvoon fryers and broilors.

The differential paid for the haavior birds reaches a maxi-mum in i.May
or June in all cases, gradually declines until about :!ovcmber and than in-
oreases until My or Juno. The price of broilers is higher than the price
of light roasters from Septcmber through Deceomber but in most other casos
a higher price is paid for the heavier birds.

The seasonal variation in the differentials for Colored young chic!:-
ens is essentially the same as for Plymouth Rock. However, the differentials
themselves arc somewhat smaller beti'a.en fryers and broilers and betweon
light roasters and broilers but sli-htly larger between light roasters and
fryers and botw-oen he.'avy- and light roasters.

Figure 4 shows monthly difforontials botuwen light roastors and broil-
ors and botweon heavy and light reastors for Barred Plymouth Rocks from 1930
to date While the differentials bct-:,on light roasters and broilers follo-w
the same seasonal tre-nds in 1940 and 1941 as in oarlinr years, the differ-
entials thcrasolves arc much smaller. The sane is true for Co orcd birds.
The avcrag- differentials shown in the above table have boon based cn the
years 1936 to 1939 and hence are higher than those for 1940-41. Trends
have not boon evident with respect to any of the other differentials.

Diffcroetials bctwo n heavy and light roaisters have beon available
throughout the year only since 1940. This was too short a tine to deteorrino
average differontials, and hence these car given culy for the monthE October
through December. Quotations have- bcon available for th.se months in every
yoar since 1931.

Results of analysis of variance tests

Whon tested by analysis of variance, the diffcrenc-s betwroc months
for the difforontials betw.cn light roasters and brcilors and between light
roasters and fryers -jro significant for both breeds; for thc differential
botwoon fryors and broilers the differences boet-c-,w n months vorc significant
for thc Colored birds but not for the Plymouth Rock; and for the diffor-
ontial botoon hcavry h and light ror.sters the diff.ernccs bctwrcn months iore
significant for the Plymouth Rock but not for th.:. Colored birds.






AUGUST 1941


Difforoncos betwoion years, whor. t.ast-:d by analysis of -
nonsignificant for both broods for the difforr-ntial botvoln f
broilers, Troro sir.nificant for Plymouth Rock but not for Color
diff)rontial bnetwccn light romstors and fryers, ir.r' significt
but not for Plymouth Rock for tha difforontial botmcn hoavy
roasters, and joro significant for both broods fPr the difforc
light roasters and broilers. Howevor, none of t0o nnalyscs ti
significant difforonces bot.ioor. years shoved concistont trends
tho case of tho difforontial botwoeon light roasters and broilc
above.

R. J.


- 22 A


nW vcErnnIl UP IPLORIDA

3 1262 08904 0501


rvrianoo, vwre
ryors and
od for tho .
int for Coloroa ..
,nd light
ontial botnwon
hat shov d
s, cxoopt in
or3 dia.cusseod


'ooto.






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