BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
PES-55B JULY 1941
IN THIS ISSUE:
DIFFERENTIALS BETWEEN CHICAGO WHOLESALE
PRICES OF HENS AND SPECIFIED CLASSES
OF YOUNG CHICKENS, 1930-41
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN WHOLESALE PRICES OF HEAVY HENS AND
SPECIFIED CLASSES OF YOUNG CHICKENS. BARRED PLYMOUTH
ROCK. CHICAGO. AVERAGE SEASONAL TREND. AND 1940-41
POUND BROILERS MINUS HEAVY HENS
US DflARTMET OFr *GRICULTuIi
MIG 19AG1 *uR .u O aWCCuLNIUPaL ECOOUMdS
DURING 1940 AND THE FIRST 3 MONTHS OF 1941 THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
PRICES OF HEAVY HENS AND PRICES OF CERTAIN MARKET CLASSES OF YOUNG CHICK-
ENS WAS ABOUT AVERAGE. HOWEVER, DURING THE LAST 3 MONTHS THE DIFFERENCE
HAS BEEN MUCH SMALLER THAN USUAL. THIS IS LARGELY A RESULT OF RELATIVELY
SMALL MARKETING OF FOWLS AND LARGE MARKETING OF YOUNG CHICKENS.
THE EGG SITUATION AT A GLANCE.
I MILLIONS )
JAN \PR. JULY OCT. JAN. APR. JULY OCT.
A M S. DATA. EXCEPT NONAGRICULTURAL INCOME INDEX NUMBERS, ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION
r FIRST OF THE MONTH EXCLUDING S M A. HOLDINGS. BEGINNING APRIL 1. 1940
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
NEG. 38961 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
I MILLIONS I
I MILLIONS I
I FARM EGG
-' '- -
THE POULTRY AITD EGG S ITUAT ION
An increase approaching 10 percent over a yeor earlier in the number
of layers by next January is practically assured since about 13 percent more
young chickens are on farms now than a year ago and other conditions are con-
tinuing favorable. A large proportion of old hens is being retained on farms
to supplement the pullets from this year's hatch. The decrease from June 1
to July 1 in the number of hens in sample farm flocks was about 35 percent
less tLan between the sa;m dates in 1940. Smaller receipts of live fowls at
midwest markets indicate that farmers are continuing to cull out fever hens.
The number of layers on farm in the United States in June was 1.5--pnrcant
smaller than a year earli'ir but thi July 1 figure was slightly higher thni
the number on July 1, lq40. Size of laying flocks will increase rapidly un-
til January 1 as this year's pullets are added.
Total -gg production in Jun vwa. slig.. ly (0.3 p:rccnt) larger than
in June 1940, making tiatr aggrgr.te nroeuction for the .'irst Lalf of this yaccr
about 3 perc.int lt.rger than:, in t-he first ic'lf of l.-.t ;,':.r. R.ccipts of eggs
at midwest primary m.rktcts since July I have been considerr.b!y '.rrger thrn a
year e irlior.
Wholesale oeg prices in mid-Jul;,, wore about ? cents lowsr thr.n t'.e
pealk for the -'ear to date in lr.te June but thry wro about 10 cents (65 per-
cent) higher thra a y nr oarlier. The Ch.icago focd-c.;g r..tio was -about 25
percent more f.avornble to producers in mid-Ju'ly th'.n ,.L y.r -.go. Egg prices
are likely to continue well r.bcvo a y:.ar eo-licr in coming ..aonths. The rise
during the last nir.f of t'i.s 'Ocar from tLio present comprrativ&,l"- high levels,
however, probably will be relatively lss th:in in the last S months of lq40.
- 3 -
JULY 1941 4 -
Stocks of frozen eggs on July 1 were 19 percent larger than a year
earlier whereas total stocks of shell eggs were 14 percent smaller. Storage
stocks of young chickens were about twice as large on July 1 as on July 1,
1940 but stocks of turkeys and fowls were smaller. Total stocks of all poul-
try were 4 percent over July 1 last year.
In contrast to the smaller far; mR.rketings of fowls, sales of young
chickens apparently are much larger now than a year ago. During the week end-
ed July 12 receipts of live young stock at midwest m:,.rkots were 57 percent
larger than a year earlier. The earlier start of the hatching season this
year than last is nD.rtirlly responsible for the much larger receipts of young
stock in recent weeks. But su-plic~? of young stock for market this year are
much larger, as indicated by the 24 percent larger hatchery output in the
first half of the year and t.e 13 percent more young chickens on farms July 1.
Wholesale prices of fowl showed little change from mid-Juno to mid-July
while prices of soi.-e classes of young stock strengthened. The average price
received by farmers for chickens (including fouls) in mid-Juno was 3 cents
(23 percent) higher than a -cr.r c.-rlinr. During the remainCder of this year
prices received by ft-rmars both for chickens and for turkeyj s arc expected to
be higher th--n in the last half of 1940.
-- July 21, 1941
Stocks of grain on h:ind :.nd growing conditions up to July 1 indicate
that the 1941-42 supplies of f.:oed grains will again be much above average, if
not the 1:rgest in 20 years. The supply of corn is expected to approximate
3,200 million bushels for the. fourth time in 2 decades. Even after excluding
corn sealed or held by the Government and allowing for an increr.se in the num-
ber of grain-consuming animal units, supplies of feed grains per animal unit
in 1941-42 will be above the 1928-32 average. Stocks of corn sealed or held
by the Government on October 1 are e-rPected to be considerably smaller than
on October 1, 1940 end unseoled stocks much 1.arger.
Large supplies cf byproduct feeds are in prospect for the coming market-
ing year. Large crushings of flaxseed and soybeans are indicated, and most of
the meal from these seeds will be available for domestic use. Production of
wheat millfeods and corn gluten feed in 194l-42 may be larger than a yeor ear-
lier as a result of an increase in domestic demand for flour and corn products.
The cost of the poultry ration increased slightly during the past month
but because of the much higher egg prices now than a year ago the feed-egg ra-
tio is much more favora.ble. During the week ended July 12 about 2 dozen (26
percent) fewer eggs were required to.buy 100 pounds of poultry feed than were
required a year earlier. The feed-eog ratio is expected to continue more fa-
vorable to producers than a year earlier during the remainior of 1941.
PoFeed-egg ratio at Chicago
(Dozens of eggs required to buy 100 pounds of poultry ration)
_: _Week ondins as of 1941
Year : Mar.: May : June : July : Aug. :Sent.: Dec.
: 29 : 31 : I : 21 : 28 : 3 : 12 : 19 : 26 : 2 : 27 : 27
:Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz.
1930-39: 6.60 7.11 6-77 6.75 6.g6 6.90 6.98 6.76 6.59 6.44 5.65 4.83
1939 : 6.35 7.45 6.90 6.7S 6.71 6.61 6.37 6.05 5.76 5."5 6.39 6.62
1940 : 7.59 7.-2 7-78 7.74 7.57 7.34 7.45 7-57 7.61 7.78 6.02 5.52
1941 : 6.57 5.-3 5.62 5.43 5.19 5.35 5-53
The commercial hatchery output of baby chicks in June this year was 69
percent larger than in June 1940. This has brought the total for the first
half of the year to about 25 percent ov3r the first half of lq40. This year's
first half total was about 24 percent above the previous record output in the
period January-June 1939.
As a result of the record large late hatch this -ear, the increase in
the number of young chickens in flocks of crop reporters from June 1 to July 1
was the largest on record for this period. The marginn over a y-".ar earlier in-
creased from about 8 percent on June 1 to nearly 13 percent on July 1. The
July 1 percentage increases in the number of young chickens over a year earlier
by regions are as follows: North Atlrntic, 13 percent; E-.st l;orth Central, 6
percent; West North C.ntral, 14 percent; South Atlantic, 7 percent; South Cen-
tral, 13 percent; and Western, 32 percent.
Present number of young chickens assures the
desired increase in layers for 1942
In past years the percentage chance from a year earlier in the number
of layers on farms each January has averaged about half as large as the per-
- 5 -
JULY 1941 6 -
centage change from a year earlier in the nrmiber of young chickens reported
in farm flocks the previous June or Ju3y. Because of unsu.al circumstances
in some years, however, the actual change: have bean considerably different
from this average relationship. Most imn-rtart factors in the situ-ation this
year indicate t irt number-- of layers will be increased to tao maEximI.mn possible
from young stock now on farmis. Thuns the Departmeat )f Agrii-.1ulture's r&oal for
a 10-percent expansion in laying flocks b0y n-xt January ov,-r a year earlier
probably will be attained.
Removal of fewv-er old hens from laying flocks also is helping to in-
crease the size if laying flocks for a-xt winter. For several weeks the rate
of culling farm flocks has been below that of a year earlier. Marketing of
live fowl in Zhe Mi&,'est neve been more than 20 percent under a year earlier
since abcut the first of June. The decrease in the nur.b.-r of layers from May
to June also was 20 rercmnt smaller than in the like period of 1940. The de-
crease from June 1 to Jul:, 1 in the number of hens in sample farm flocks was
about 35 percent loss than that between the sane dates last year. To date
these smaller declines in the number of lIydrs have resulted almost entirely
from the sale of fewer old hers by fnrm.ers since few pullets are added to lay-
ing flocks before August.
The number of layers on Ziar-,s duirm-'ig June -ias only about 1.5 percent
smaller then in Junc- 140, rnd on Jul;; 1 tr. nLumbzr of In.yars in stimole form
flocks -',as slightly larger thrn ,- year earlier.
Egg production in June the l.rrgest since i1Q
The 2--.ercent n E:ier rate of 1-.y in Jun? Lightly more than offset
the 1.5 percent fewer nlr-ors, an-d total producticai for the rimnth was the l.nrg-
est since 1930. Tot,-l egg production for tiv- first rn.lf of the year wars about
3 percent larger than in the firct half of 19O40. The r-.te of lay per hen in
the first 6 months of 1941 wns aboutt 6 percent '.ih.er thur in the correspond-
ing period of 1'9O. With thr size of living flocks now ir.ncrer.sing relative to
a year earlier, production of egs will be Irrcr a.s ti:;: rate of lay probably
will be at least as high as the rate a year earlier and probably higher.
Number of layers on farms, United States
Year. Jan.: Feb., March. Apr. !-lay :June 'July Aug..Sept.. Oct.. Nov.. Dec.
:Mil. Mil. Mil. I-lil. Mil. Mil. Mil, Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil. Mil.
1930-39: 332 325 315 301 2s4 267 253 246 256 278 300 322
1938 : 307 301 292 278 262 2hS 236 234 245 269 293 314
1939 :322 316 306 292 276 250 246 2142 253 279 305 326
1940 : 332 327 318 304 289 270 252 247 257 279 303 320
1941 : 324 318 309 295 280 265
Average number of eggs produced per layer, United States
Year : Jan.: Feb. March' Apr.: May :June *July : Aug. Sept.. Oct. Nov., Dec.
: No. No. No. ITo. No. No. No. Io. To. No. n o. Io.
1930-39: 6.6 8.9 14.3 15.7 16. 1i4.2 12.7 11.2 s.9 6.8 5.0 5.2
-1938 : 7.9 9.9 15.4 17.5 17.3 14.9 13.6 ll.G 9.4 7.5 5.9 6.4
1939 : 8.0 9.7 14.9 17.0 17.0 14.6 13.2 11.7 9.3 7.4 6.0 6.8
1940 : 7.2 9.0 14.4 16.5 17.0 14.s 13.4 11.8 .9.7 7.9 6.2 6.8
1941 : 8.7 10.3 15.0 16.9 17.4 15.1
Total farm production of eggs, United States
Year :,Jan.: Feb. .March. Apr.: May "June :July : Aug..Sept. Oct. Nov.. Dec.
: Mil. Mil. M l. Mil. Mil. Mil Mil. Nil. 1il. Mil. Mil. Mil.
:cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases
1930-39: 6.0 8.0 12.5 13.9 13.2 10.5 8.9 7.6 6.4 5.2 .1l 4.7
1938 : 6.7 8.3 12.5 13.5 12.6 10.3 8.9 7.6 6.4 5.6 4.S 5-5
1939 : 7.2 8.5 12.6 13.8 13.0 10.6 9.1 7.8 6.5 5.7 5.1 6.1
1940 : 6.7 8.2 12.7 14.0 13.7 11.1 9.4 8.1 7.0 6.1 5.2 6.0
1941 : ,7.9 9.1 12.8 13.9 13.5 11.1
Purchases of dried and frozen eggs by the Department of Agriculture
during the third week in July were the largest thus far under the -resent pur-
chase program. Total purchases of all eggs to date this year are approximate-
ly equivalent to 3-1/4 million cnse? of sholl eggs.
Purchases of eggs by th3 Department of Agriculture
: Shell : Frozen : Dried
Week ending .
as of 1941 : 1940 : 1941 1941 : 1941
Cases Cases 1,000 pounds 1,000 pounds
May 3 : 314,099 141,756 .
10 55,852 137,606 ---
17 : 80,591 103,233 12,642 618
24 : 254,296 42,000 1,247 100
31 260,475 35,600 1,638 157
June 7 : 263,265 25,201 1,379 145
14 : 233,560 10,400 1,775 350
21 : 199,261 2,800 1,801 100
28 : 161,895 --- 1,283 140
July 5 : 40,274 5,90o 13,810 1,583
12 : 13,385 50,000 2,583 210
19 : 34,289 14o,403 13.835 1,930
26 : 49,519
- 7 -
Stocks of frozen eggs at an all-time peak
The into-storage movement of frozen eggs in recent weeks exceeded
previous records, and storage holdings ure by far the largest.on record for
any date. Total United States stocks of frozen eggs on July I were about
19 percent larger than on July 1, 1940. The Department of Agriculture owned
the equivalent of 419,000 cases of shell eggs but privately owned stocks
alone were about 7 percent larger than on July 1, 1940. The largest previous
stocks of frozen eggs on record were those of August 1, 1937.
Total United States stocks of shell eggs on July 1 were 14 percent
smaller than a year earlier. Privately owned stocks, however, were only
about 7 percent smaller since the Department owned only about one third as
many shell eggs on July 1 this year as on July 1, 1940. Supplies of storage
eggs this coming fall and winter will be supplemented by what probably will
be the largest production on record for the period. Purchases by the Depart-
ment under the announced purchase program, however, will absorb a large part
of the prospective incroess in production. Total stocks of shell and frozen
eggs combined on July 1 were about 2 percent smaller than on July 1, 1940.
Eggs: Storage stocks in the United States and storage
movement at 26 markets
United States : Into-storage movement, week ending as of 1941
Year : stocks : Ju:.c : July : Aug.
:June 1 : July 1 28 : 5 : 12 : 19 : 26 : 2
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
Shell: : cases cases casus cases ca;es ceses cases cases
1930-39 : 6,868 8,135 130 89 52 36 7 1/30
1939 : 5,880 6,977 86 56 16 2 1/2 1/33
1940 :2/5,662 2/ 6,580 180 99 43 29 69 40
1941 :2/'4,960 2/ G 0,124 119 50 37
1930-39 : 2,995 3,465 ----- --- ---
1939 : 3,369 4,042 71 52 44 13 0 10
1940 : 3,537 4,296 105 93 29 27 16 9
1941 : 4,059 3/4/ 4,677 255 139 155
1 Out-of-storago movement.
2/ Excludes Department of Agriculture holdings as follows: Juno 1, 1940,
318,000 cases; July 1, 1940, 933,Q00 cases; June 1, 1941, 415,000 cases; and
July 1, 1941, 327,000 cases.
y/ Excludes Department of Agriculture holdings uf 419,000 cases.
- 8 -
Egg prices continuing well above
a year earlier
Wholesale egg prices reached a peuk for the yu ar to date in late June.
By mid-July, horevcr, they had declined about 2 cents to a level about 1
I cent higher than in mid-June. Receipts of eggs at central western primary
markets in mid-June were about 50 percent larger than a year earlier compared
to a difcr'.nce of less than 30 percent in nid-June. The average price re-
ceived by ftrmers for eggs in mid-June was the highest f-,r the month since
1929, abuizt 9 cents higher than in June 1940.
Because of the nuch stronger demand in prospect f.r coning no.Lths and
the Department's egg purchase program, egg prices are likely to continue well
above prices a year earlier. The rise during the lost half cf this year from
the present comparatively high levels, however, probably will be rcla.tively
less than in the corresponding .acnaths of 19-10.
Price per dozen received by farriers for eggs, United States
Year: Jan.: Feb.: iJar.: apr.: MIy : June: July: Aug.:Sept.: Oct.: lo1'..: Dec.
: 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15
:Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
1930-39: 22.8 18.8 1C.1 16.0 15.9 15.7 17.0 13.7 21.9 24.7 28.2 26.3
1938 : 21.6 16.4 16.2 15.0 17.6 18.2 19.9 21.0 24.9 27.1 29.0 27.9
1939 : 18.8 16.7 16.0 15.5 15.2 14.9 16.5 17.5 20.6 22.9 25.8 20.5
1940 : 18.3 20.2 15.4 15.0 15.1 11.4 16.4 17.2 21.0 23.7 26.2 26.8
1941 : 19.7 16.8 1G.4 19.7 20.1 23.2
Far-a niarketings of young chickens in
earl:- July much larger than a year
earlier but vclune of' fowls is smaller
Receipts of live young chickens at central v.',,stcrn primary markets
in early July were nearly 80 percent larg:,r than a ;.'cr earlier. Receipts of
fowls on the other hand were between 20 and 30 purccnt si:,aller. The nargin
of receipts of young stock over y.-'r carlicr appears unduly large. because
this year's hatching started much cLrlicr. However, with 13 percent more
chickens beinG raised jn fans this J'ear than la3t narketini:s of chickens off
farms in the next several months pr.rbably will continue much larger than a
THE POULTRY SITUATION AT A GLANCE
RECEIPTS OF POULTRY
AT FOUR MARKETS
AR. JULY OCT.
A FIRST OF THE MONTI
I MILLIONS )
I MILLIONS I, U.S. STOCKS OF
1941 I 1
ii m 0 I I I I I I I
POUNDS I I
MILLIONS I U.S. STOCKS OF FOWLS&
40 1- 1940 -
O I I I I I l I
POUNDS I I
S MILLIONS) U. S. STOCKS OF
( 1940 -
JAN. APR. JULY OCT.
H INCLUDES BROILERS. FRYERS AND ROASTERS
* DATA FOR 1941 ARE PRELIMINARY
NES. 39177 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
A. M S DATA
u S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
PES-55 11 -
: Receipts of dressed .pultry at four markets
(Ner: York, Chicago, Philadelphia, Bcstcn)_
SWeek ending as of 1941
Year : ay : June : July : Aug. :Sept.
: 24 ,: 31 : 21 : 28 : 5 : 12 : 1E : 26 : 2 : 27
:1,000 1,000 1,000 1,030 1,000 1,0000 1,0o 1,000 1,000 1,000
: pound pos ounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds
1930-39 : 4,501 4,615 5,274 5,428 4,682 4,950 4,852 4,880 4,376 C,627
1939 : 5,7-1"9 5,668 6,515 6,139 5,357 6,300 5,12 6,948 5,872 7,530
1940 :.6,671 5,522 6,584 6,653 6,044 6,406 5,724 6,076 6,265 8,403
1941 6,344 6,380 6,799 6,327 5,789 6,659
Storage holdings of young stock
are much above average
Storage stocks of young chickens (broilers, fryers, and roasters), are
now the largest in several years. Combined they are about twice ns larCe now
as a year ago. With the prospective heavy narketings in coning ncnths they
probably will continue much above average. Stocks of fowl, on the other hand,
arc smaller than a year earlier for the first time this :,ear. The net re-
duction in holdings of turkeys during June was much less than in May because
of the movenenjt of breeder hens to market. Compared with the record high hold-
ings for that date a year earlier, h.,wever, holdings of turkeys were 24 per-
cent smaller.. Stocks of fm'ls were down 13 percent from July 1, 1940. Stocks
of chickens on July 1 wore above a yu.r earlier as foll.":s: Broilers, 2 per-
cent; fryers, 100 percent; roasters, 163 percent. Total h.-ldings of all
poultry on July 1 were 4 percent ovor July 1, 1940.
Poultry: St-rage stocks.in the United States and storage
movenicnt at 26 markets
: United States : Storage novcment, weck ending as of 1911
Year : stocks : June : July : Aug.
: Juno 1 : July 1 : 28 : 5 : 12 : 19 : 26 : 2
1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds
1930-39: 51,065 49,517 -323 77 283 -283 -228 -216
1939 : 66,796 67,470 -783 -430 -1,079 -282 + 35 -441
19-10 : 76,90-1 82,336 +817 27 326 -100 -355 +1,122
1941 : 87,433 1/85,874 -716 -615 -1,363
JULY 1941 12 -
Decline in wholesale prices of young
stock came earlier this year than last
As a result of the much larger early hatch of chicks this year thon
last, prices of young stock reached their peaks in April this year whereas
in 1940 the peaks came in May and in early June. The peaks also were not
quite as high this year as last. In mid-July, however, wholesale.prices of
live young stock at Chicago were slightly-higher than a year earlier; live
fowl prices were 4 cents or more higher. The nargin over a year earlier may
continue smaller for young stock than for fowls largely because of the much
larger production of young chickens this year than last and the probable con-
tinued smaller marketings of fowl. Furthermore, storage stocks of fowls now
are smaller than a year ago whereas stocks of young chickens are about twice
as large as in July 1940.
Prices received by farmers for chickens during the roemaindor of 1941
probably will be above those of a year earlier despite the larger marketing
of chickens during the remainder of 1941. Consumer incomes now are about
13 percent larger than a year ago, and supplies of other meats during the
next few months will be little different from a year earlier.
Price per pound received by farmers for chickens,
: Jan.: Feb.: Liar.: Apr.: IMay :June :July : Aug.:Sept.: Oct.: Nov.: Dec.
Year 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15
:Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
1930-39: 14.0 14.2 14.4 15.0 14.7 14.4 1:1.1 14.0 14.3 13.7 13.3 12.9
1938 : 16.7 16.0 15.9 16.2 16.1 15.7 15.0 14.2 14.3 13.6 13.6 13.6
1939 : 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.4 13.9 13.*1 13.7 13.0 13.6 12.7 12.4 11.7
1940 : 12.0 12.2 12.8 12.- 13.6 13.3 13.G 13.4 13.7 13.3 13.1 13.0
1941 : 13.7 14.0 14.4 15.7 16.3 16.3
The number of commercially hatched poults produced during the early
part of this season was about the same as the year before. In more recent
months, however, the demand increased. During June about 44 percent more
poults were produced than in June 1940. And at the end of June advanced
orders were about three times as large as a year earlier.
The decline in prices received by farmers for turkeys during the first
half of this year was much less than usual. This has resulted partly from
the stronger consumer demand and partly from later-than-usual marketing of
breeder hons. Prices received by farmers for turkeys in mid-June were about
2-1/2 cents higher than in June 1940 and were only about a half-cent below
the 1940 peak last December. Turkey prices very likely.will continue well
above those of a year earlier during the remainder of 1941.
- 13 -
Price per pound received by farriers for live turkeys, United States
ar : Jan.: Feb.: Allr.: Apr.: Llay :June :July : Aug.:Sept.: Oct.: Nov.: Dec.
: 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 5 : 15
:Cents Ctnts Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Certs Ccnts Cents Cents
r5-39: 17.2 16.0 16.5 16.2 15.5 14.7 14.6 14.4 15.3 16.1 17.2 17.5
6938 : 17.5 17.7 17.2 17.0 16.4 15.6 15.7 15.0 16.0 1P.5 17.1 18.4
1939 : 18.3 17.5 17.6 16.9 15.6 14.7 14.4 14..3 15.4 15.3 1G.0 15.6
1-9$40 : 14.2 14.0 13.7 13.5 13.2 12.9 12.9 13.4 14.3 11.7 15.5 15.9
, S41 : 15.5 1 15.1 15?. 15.5 15.4 15.4
Poultry statistics United States Census data
compared t.o Dcpartment of Agriculture data
Inquiries arc bcing received concerning mn apparc.-it lack of harmony
between cTrtain of the 9Ii0 Census figur"--s and the estimates publish, d by
the Department of %-riculturc.
The two sets of figures -Lre not c-:r.purnble because of differences in
method of collection I, fc.L.. cf inquiry, and the sur.son of the 'ear to which
'they relate. Th!- two suprl-:nent each -thcr. Thu Ccnsus Bureau enruncrvtes
vitil facts at 5-y.-ar intervals. The DLpt-rt.cent of Arizultur-. publishes
current, nionthly, and ?amnial estimates usin- the: CEnsus enu.uerations ns its
main basis for establiehing numncrs on h'-nd for t,: Census years. Its cur-
rent cstimntes arc based rn rer.o.rt.d ronthlz' and o.nnual chang-s in thousands
of sannle flocks distributed in all S.t-2s a.nd sections.
A discussion of the relations betvwccn thi tv.o cets of figures has been
prepared by S. A. Jones )f the agricultural l I:irklctin; S3ervice. Copiuc can
be obtained upon request to the Marketing In-for.tion Divizicri, Agricultural
DOi.ESTIC DE J'l
The improvement in the de-mand for fam products during th3 last few
months reflects r:ain.ly the general increase in industrial activity, employ-
ment, and consaumr purchasin r.-ver which has acconpanied the expansion of
the National defense prcgran. industrial activity probably will average
20 to 25 percent higher in 1941 than in 1940, and v:ill be by far the highest
in the history of the country. Totel e.mployrment in nonagricultural occupa-
tions will average nearly 40 ni.-li--n persons for the year, rI- increase of
about 3 millic.n cver 1`40. The income of pe-rsmns enELagcd in nonindustrial
pursuits such as service o.;ccupations will not rise prop.-.rtinnately with that
of industrial workers but the tutal income of the urban population in 1941
should be at least ono-ti.-hth ,-rcatcr than in 1E40. In ;.ay the index number
of nenugriculturel incoen was about 13 percent over a your cerlier. The
present rate cf the National incomrn is about 86 billion Collars per year.
Total Nati-nal income in 1941 is expected to exceed the ;2 billion for 1C29
and it may reach 87 or 88 billion dollars compared with 76 billion in 1940.
- 14 -
Index numbers of nonagricultural income
(1924-29 = 100, adjusted for seasonal variation)
Year Jan.. Feb.. Iar.. Apr.: May June. July. Aug..S3pt.. Oct.. Nov., Dec.
1930-39: 83.4 83.1 P3S. 82.9 32.4 93.6 82.7 S2.5 32.1 32.3 82.3 82.7
1939 : 0C6 0.2 91.3 :C.D 90.0 92.1 91.8 '9.3 93.3 95.0 95.9 97.1
1940 : 96.9 96.2 25.9 95.3 9F.4 97.4 97.8 99.1 92.9 100.3 101.7 104.1
1941 :104.7 105.6 10C.4 10C.4 /109.1
1/ Preliminary. -
DIFFERENTIALS BETWEEN CHICAGO WHOLESALE FRICS OF HENS
AJ-D SPECIFIED MARKET CIASSE OF YO2LIG CHICKEJ-S,
1930-31 TO 1940-41
In the June iscue of The Poultry and Egg Situation a series of whole-
sale prices for specified classes of live fowls and chickens at Chicago was
published. in this article a discussion is given of the trends and seasonal
variation in the differentials between prices of heavy and medium heavy hens
and between heavy hens and specified market classes of the heavy breeds of
Price differentials rctwveen heavy and medium heavy hens
The .)rice spread between heavy and medium heavy hens decreases from
April to October or lovenber and gradually increases until Larch or April.
From Februar- troufh A-ril prices of medium heavy birds usually are higher
than those paid for hcavy birds, but from July through December, higher
prices are usually- paid for heavy birds. The seasonal pattern in the price
spreads has been essentially the sane in every year since 193C-31. Average
differentials by months are shown in the table or page 1S. No trends are
evident in these differertialc.
Price differentials bet-ien heavy hens and
specified classes of young chickens
The chart on the cover page shows the average seasonal variation in the
price differentials between heavy hens and broilers, light roasters and heavy
roasters for the (Barred) Plymouth Rock breed. The seasonal variation for
fryers is essentially the same as for broilers, except that prices are gener-
ally not quoted from October to February. Prices on fryers have not been
quoted since September 1939, and hence data for this class were not included
in the chart.
The seasonal patterns for the price differentials for the various market
classes are strikingly similar. All series tend to decline from a peak in
April or Lay to a low point in the fall or winter and then begin to increase
in the late winter. However, there are some important differences between the
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- 16 -
The margin of heavy hen prices over broiler prices reaches a low point
in August or September, increases to a peak in November, and then declines to
a point in January only slightly higher than that in August or September.
The price-spread begins to increase again in February and continues to in-
crease until April. Since 1937, the peak in November has been about 2 cents
belorr the peak in the spring. The margins of prices of heavy hens over prices
of both fryers and roasters usually reach a peak in May, decline steadily to
September or October, and then increase until April. The total seasonal
variation in these margins is largest for heavy and light roasters, and
smallest for broilers. The difference between the differential in the high
month and the differential in the lor mcnth is about 10 cents for heavy and
light roasters, 7-1/2 certs for fryers, and 5-1/2 cents for broilers.
The seasonal pattern of price-spreads for the various market classes
for other heavy breeds is essentially the same as for Plymouth Rocks. Aver-
age differentials by months, between hens and the various other market
classes for each breed, are shown in the following table.
Average wholesale price spreads at Chicago between heavy and medium
heavy hens and between heavy hens and specified market classes
of young chickens, heavy breeds, by months, cents per pound
Breed Apr. May June. July: Aug..Sept.: Oct., Fov,. Dec.. Jan.. Feb.. !aer
:Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
: FPrice of medium heavy hens Einus price of heavy hens
1.20 .74 .17 -.28 -.96 -2.43 -3.08 -2.94 -2.45 .02 1.25 1,66
: _Price of broilers minus price of heavy hens
White Rock : 5.C00 5.10 3.70 1.,50 .25 .35 1.35 2.65 1.65 1.00 3.20 4.50
Colored ....: 4.50 4.50 2.80 .30 -1.05 -2.20 .25 1.25 .40 .25 1.75 2.95
: .- Price of fryers minus price of heavy hens
White Rock : 6.10 6.65 5.20 2.90 .95 .60 5.50
Colored ....: 4.70 5.35 3.30 .50 -1.15 -2.70 --
:_ Price of iTght roasFers minus price of heavy hens
White Rock : 7.20 8.45 7,30 4.60 1.95 -1.00 -1.35 .55 .75 1.20 3.60 5.10
Colored ....: 5.75 6.95 5.70 2,70 .25 -3.20 -2.95 -1.65 .50 .25 2.00 3.22
: Price of heavy roasters minus price of heavy hens '
White Rock : 8.00 9.20 7.80 5.00 2.20 .75 -1.10 .55 .75 1.60 4.60 7.0.
Colored ....: 2.75 6.50 5.55 2.75 .05 -2.90 -2.65 -1.35 .20 .00 ,75 1.15
PE3 -5 5
- 17 -
Trends in price-spreads
-Ten years is tuo short a tire ":o give a very definite indication of
the nature of the longtime trends in price soreads. However, some tentative
conclusions can be given.
The spread between prices of broilers and heavy hens shows the most
definite trend. For Plymouth Rocks, the average differential for the months
April through September and February and March declined from 6.06 cents in
1933-34 to 2.72 cents in 1930-40. For Colored broilers and heavy hens the
average differential in the same months declined from 4.32 cents in 1933-M4
.o .90 cents in 1939-40.
The price spread between fryers and heavy hens also showed a tende-cy
to decline. For Colored fryers the average differential for the months
April through July declined from. 10.48 cents in 1931-32 to 2.56 cents in
1939-40. For Plymouth Rocks the average differential for the months April
through August declined from 8.61 cents in 19.34-35 to 4.00 cents in 1939-4C,
but in 1932-33 the differential was orly 5.40 cents.
In the case cf both broilers and fryers, most of the decline took
place prior to 1935-36.
The differentials between heavy hens and light and heavy roasters do
not anpear to have followed any definite trend.
Differentials in 1940-41
Largely as a result of higher egg prices, receipts of fowls at Central
Western primary markets during recent months have beer: much smaller than a
year earlier. On the other hand, receipts of your stock have been larger.
As is shown in the chart on the cover page, tne dI.ffere.tials between heavy
hens and the various classes of young chickens have been reflectirg these
marketing trends. Whereas during 1940 and the first 3 months of 1941 the
differentials were about average, during the past 3 months they have been
much smaller than usual, indicating that prices of hens have been unusually
high relative to those of chickens. This has beer true for the Plymouth
Rock, White Rock, and Colored breeds.
Since Septenber 1940 prices of medium heavy hens have been high rela-
tive to prices of heavy hens.
Methods used in determining trends and
average seasonal variation
The most important difficulty in studying trends and seasonal varia-
tion in poultry prices or price spreads is that continuous quotations are not
available and the months in which quotations are available vary from year to
year. By using prices on the "general run" class in 1930 and 1931, a series
of prices for heavy hens was obtained for all months and all years. Horrevcr,
the problem of discontinuity still remained with respect to prices of young
- 18 -
Two solutlonz tc this problem wrera a-ailable. One -.as to estimate the's
risingg prices for ,riue bpreeds) on the basis of prices in preceding or
follovr1:F, nonth3 r id in the corresponding month of other years. However,
since one )f the carposes of the stud" was to discover whether'there hal
been a tre-dc cr t' change 4n the seasonal pattern of the price spreads, this -
procedure -..-as thought inadvisable.
An alternative procedure 'as to obtain all possible price ;pTrcles for
a particulai- combination of classes, make up a table of then by .,ror'3r, and
then block out cnmbina ions of months and years in which price spccads Iwere
glve:i fcr every n:ionth and every year included. Such a table for t} e price
of Plymouth Rock light roasters minus the price cf heavy hens is shown. here.
Plymouth Pocks: Price of light roasters minus price
of hens, 1930-39
Year : : : : : : : : : : : :
begin-: Apr.: Ma, : J-une: July: Aug:S3ept.: Oct,: Niov,: Dec.: Jan.: Feb.: Mar#
n n : : : : : : : : : ::
.ent7 s "Ce6i5s T- Cen-Ts- e-fs 5Tea'"o th s Fe6Es C-.Ts '~n Teis" Cents. "Cents
1930 : 10.17 6.28 3,.44 .14 -2.29 .55 .97 2.18 7,44 5'.1
1931 : .62 4.35 -1.57 -2.75 -1.05 .36 -1.36
1932 : 7.87 5.23 1.2:- -1.82 -2.75 -2.28 -2.01 2.56 3.86
1933 : 6.73 2.56 .42 -1.4 .31 .30 1.83 3.58 4.59
1934 : 8.73 12.g4 11.96 10.11 4.56 .34 .15 .64 .74 1.60 2.60 1.74
1935 : 4.. 5.2r 3.9? ?.62 -2.21 -1.30 .14 .50 1.40 3.77 4.2Z
193C : 6.75 .c.E F.30 5.63 .1' -2,.44 -2.85 -2.08 -1.70 .20 3.52
1937 : 7.98 1I .0C 6.1 4.00 2.94' .97 .50 1.16 2.91 4.06 5.61
1938 : 7.29 5.94 2.56 1.49 -1.05 -2.56 -2.14 -1.34 .95 .04 2.72 5.34
1939 : 5.35 7.2,4 6.67 5.14 .92 .72 .12 .82 2.31 1.58 3.12 5.2:
By letti:"L ore block include the months July through December and the
years 193W-39 a:- another block include the month April-December and February
and the year 1.34 and 1936-39, the above requirei.ient coull be ir,t and still
most of the dif er-;ntials available could be used. By using the -ro p'roups,
a seasonal pattern for most of the year could be obtained, and tb' sing the
first group the trend in the differentials from 1930 to 1939 could be studied*e
In studyirr the price sireade, analysis of variance was first used on
each block to test whether there .were sigrificart differences between years
or between months. If there were, t-hen the nont]-ly and/or annual averages j
for all blocks involving the same cl ses vere plotted in time series charts
to determine the nature of the seaonl variatior and whether there was a
regular trend or merely a zigzag move.aient. The indicated results from these
charts were then checked against all individual years and/or months for
the particular series. If the tw'o were in agreement, the results were as-
sumed to be fairly conclusive. The study of trends was completed with this
- 19 -
The above steps formed a basis for indicating whether there was a
definite seasonal pattern for any particular price spread. However, the
exact value of the average seasonal for each month still had to be determined.
It was assumed, on the basis of available data, that the spreads were about
the sane regardless of the general level of poultry prices and herce that
the "average" spread for each month should be expressed in terms of cents
rather than percent.
As was mentioned above, charts were made showing the average spread
for each month for each block of data. Such a chart showing the price dif-
ferential between heavy hens and Plymouth Rock light roasters "is shown in
figure 3. A preliminary estimate of the "average" spread for recent years
for each month was read off this chart, using as a basis the block averages
shown on the chart modified by any indicated trends in the size of the
Studies similar to this one had been made for the differentials be-
tween the various market classes of young chickens, and between breeds for
any given market class. These studies will be discussed in later issues
of The Poultry and Egr Situation. It is apparent that the average differ-
ential between Plymouth Pock light roasters and heavy hens could be esti-
mated in any of the following ways.
1. Fird the average differential between Plymouth Rock light roast-
ers and heavy hens. This method was used in arriving at the preliminary
average differential shown in figure 3.
2. Find the average differential between Plymouth Rock broilers and
heavy hens and between Flymouth Rock light roasters and Plymouth Rock
broilers. Add the two differentials.
3. Find the average differential betwee-r F]y:,iouth Rock fryers and
heavy hens and between Plyrouth Roc: litht roasters and Plymouth Poo': fryers.
Add the two differentials.
4. Find the average differential between Plymouth 2ock heavy roasters
and heavy hens and between Plymouth Rock light roasters and Plymouth Rock
heavy roasters. Add the two differentials.
5. Find the average differential between Colored light roasters and
heavy hens and between Plymouth Pock light roasters and Colored light
roasters. Add the two differentials.
If all the differentials had been based on averages of the same years,
the same results would have been obtained by each method. However, as
mentioned above, no one set of years could be used. Hence a considerable
number of adjustments had to be made in the averages in order to make all
of them consistent with each other, in arriving at consistent final aver-
age differentials, the seasonal pattern indicated by the block averages wvas
followed as closely as possible, while the actual size of the differential
was based on the indicated trends. The final estimated average differentials
are assumed to be representative of those in recent years.
JULY 1041 20 -
Results of analysis of variance tects
Differences between months as tested by enelysis of variance were
significant for all of the above differentials for all groups of years.
Differences between years for the differential between heavy and
medium heavy hens vere not significant.
Differences between years for the difffrentials between heavy hens
and the various classes of young chickeensa were all significant. ovwever,
for some breeds and classes no consistent trends -"ere evident but only an
erratic up-anc-down movement. For those, ne trend was assumed to exist.
R. J. FOOTE
- 21 -
INDEX OF SPECIAL SUBJECTS DISCUSSED INII THE
POULTRY AlNTD EGG SITUATION
Differentials between Chicago wholesale prices
of hens and prices of specified market classes
of young chickens, 1930-31-1940-41 ............ 1-4-20
Wholesale prices of live fowls and chickens at
Chicago, 1930-31 to 1940-41 ................... 14
A moving seasonal adjustment for egg prices ..... 13
i Outlook for turkeys in 1941 ..................... 11
Downward trend in costs of egg production ....... 14
United States foreign trade in poultry products
in 1940 ............... ........... .. .......... 12
S estimated storage margin on shell eggs per dozen,
averages 1916-35 and 1925-34, annual 1935-40 .. 3
Eggs, per dozen: Estimated storage margin,
1916-37 ...................... .... ........ 9
Geographic location of storage stocks of eggs ... 6-8
Geographic location of storage stocks of poultry 11
Factors affecting the average price received by
farmers for turkeys in.the United States ...... 13-16
Poultry and egg outlook for 1941 ................ ---
Chick Hatchery Survey, 1937-38 .................. 11-13
A comparison of four feed-egg ratios ............ 10-13
Feed-egg ratio defined .......................... 10-11
May 1, 1940
December 4, 1939
UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
3 1262 08904 0546