Poultry and egg situation

/ft .' y I_


THE


S SITUATION

BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

PES-50 XI- FEBRUARY 1941


EGG PRODUCTION PER HEN IN THE UNITED STATES. 1925-40
INDEX NUMBERS ( 1926-30=100)
PERCENT I11

160 SEASONAL CHANGE. EGGS November and
PRODUCED PER LAYER December\
NUMBER Greg
15 -G196-40-
140 10 -
5 A .era.ge e- .
0 196-IO Z I
0 -i II IIII
JAN. APR JULY OCT

120


,oo .o
100

SAnnual A.M S. DATA

80 II II I -


1925 1927 1929


U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


1931 1933 1935 1937 1939


NEG 38639 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF EGGS PRODUCED PER HEN HAS INCREASED FOR
ALL MONTHS DURING THE PAST 10 OR 15 YEARS (SEE COMPARISON OF 5-YEAR
AVERAGES IN INSET). BUT THE INCREASE HAS BEEN MOST PRONOUNCED FOR
THE FALL AND WINTER MONTHS, ESPECIALLY NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER. THE
PHENOMENAL INCREASE--THE RESULT OF SELECTIVE BREEDING, BETTER
FEEDING, AND IMPROVED MANAGEMENT--HAS CAUSED CHANGES IN THE SEASON-
AL PATTERN OF EGG PRICES AND HAS TENDED TO REDUCE THE QUANTITY OF
SHELL EGGS STORED.







THE EGG SITUATION AT A GLANCE


EGGS
I DOZENS)

8


7


6


5


4
CASES
I MILLIONS )

8



6



4



2


0
CENTS PER
DOZEN
30



25



20



15


JAN. APR. JULY OCT. JAN. APR. JULY OCT.
A Al S DATA. EXCEPT NONAGRICULTURAL INCOME INDEX NUMBERS. ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION
A FIRST OFP THE MONTH t EXCLUDING S M. A. HOLDINGS. BEGINNING APRIL 1940


U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


NEG. 38961 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE I


CASES
i MILLIONS )


12


9



6



3


0
NUMBER
I MILLIONS I

325


300


275


250


225





- 3 -


THE POULTRY A TD EGG S ITUATI ON




Egg production during the coming spring and summer may be "b l :.htly

smaller than in the cor-'espo.di. period of l'--O because of the fewer layers

on farms than a year earlier. F--- production to date this year, however,

has been much Icr.r than a year earlier, mostly because of the mild weather

coz-.red to the r'-. ua'll;r cold weather from midi-Jr.u.ljry to about mid-February

in 1940. Both the number of eggs laid. er hen and the total quantity of e-.s

produced in Jan:*-u were the la~~c on re c-rd for the month. Sto,.-re stocks

of :oth shell and frozen eggs now are about at their seasonal lows and, with

normal weather, net into-storage movements will b:'in in a few weeks. 2.e

storage demand is expected to be oli-`-.tly stronger this s.-r .i tian last.

Mot. of the seasonal decline in egg prices, which usually occurs from

T.'-iember to ].:.rch, took place this year from early i-ce-.I.r to about the

middle of Jarun.a.. w."-.~r:-, the r-:.r e price received by farmers for eggs

on Jane-ar,, 1 was about a cent and a half (8 percent) higher than a year

earlier. ,.iol ~sle egg prices ch... s. little from mid-Jwr.'.,- to mid-Fpbruary

but r'e.-._tlr 5.?clird slihitl-. T,.- str:-.n-r consumer demand and the pro-

spect.ive sli,'htly stronger zstr-.-;e demand t.is y-'r than last, together with

.sm.ller su-lies of e^-s, are e:.pect-e to cause egg prices to av;r:.-e higher

in 19-+ th4 n in 1f4G.

Sinc J-rnuii-. 1 receipts of live ,r.ltr at primary markets in the

Miidl? We7-t a:nd receipts of 'ires" .c-'try at princi-al markets have a'verLaged

smaller than- a "-ear earlier. ,The net out-._f-'torr.g -3 movement of frozen roul-

try has been lwe.fer th-an a y-.ir e-.rlier, reflect ing smaller farm r.a'iketins

of live poultr. arnd continued hn:.iavy conui-m-tion of poultry; meat. :verthele's,

storage stocks of poultry on F.br-_ar7- 1 were the largest on record for that







it'.. A-:.-e -'rices recei-:-ed by fis rs for chickens a.' 'ir i.

January were asb s-art ll-r 1.*:r 3th a yr e .rier a-ir. a e ected to

r:.7 -*71. .i.--r this year then Last, -I:'i-.r.:il .:.-:- se of .m-e s.r -T. cr cor-

sEer i:7-. d.

.;_o-.-:~' the fee'i-e-g r_.i nor 3- cc.-sie.ra:l less fzrc rle t h.n

a -:-. earlier, it is ex-ectei to aver:e cre fvora'le ---ri- the months

of Le ret -:-: -lotion and chick ;..-ir. Bec%-use of this and -the fact

thit in the p?.nt p u.-..-r-_ i- the zrcer h' cc: : n ri--?i "- ..ll. .as

followed. a d.cLi'., cre cic.-:rs are e-e: to : r.-_sai thi- s .ear than

in 19 "L ." T r -.-:-'t in-~ i -s as of T-: '.-r ..I i::e t_.it ? -*-rc'r.t more

ny7 chicks Till) be -ur-ch's--i this rec- '-: l-.st.




o c '-- --L- C 7 -
--.'..? ost f .jC'1 -:: -o ti'-"n, b sE-i o r'. hic c ric:s, c..".=re--ed a
little loder to .ate in _0 .... in t1-.: .r. -.-.i-. -mr-it -f 1C-C, z--t
-e ;ri:h ter-. cr-si-.17 loTier t-. e : cold we-tther
a .-c-_- pR As a result, the '--i-:-:-_ r .i3 :-:: is "__i .:?.:'7 le_ s ,avor
able th at ti. time last year. Fo: -. i-: rt r-'-. --ci:r months
t-:-.i wri'-g, hter er, fc:r-. 3- rtic i -.. o_: e ..'-:-' :-; +"-r a ._-"r earlier, ld the .- i-" f-.-.:: Ir--.1 a.r-_s 3 .... 0"',-, rtio during
the '.-tr -cri r a-r-2 s to have foE i- .:-- *r'- .- sies _Ft ch thnm
the irto ian y othpr jirisi. Wis c:r.-:ir?.-ir, y.-ct.hr _ith the fact that
an_ ia .re in hatch .ll-. fo:l'r i-clime, f:r the :-_.sis for e-Tecting
a "_.--:r htch this leaz t n 1 st.

_e.i- 7SI. a- -.ti ; cer

(Dozens of -.-s r:.-ir3ei t. ":--- IC
:r-_is of -:ult ," rz:i&n)


ea : .- -" : !.-.r. : -.r. :-:.. :C-t. :r c.
S : -- : 1 : : : : : 27
: O-. -. -. _-: .z. z. _- -. .- -. :. -cz. 773z.
A7- r -g e:
1?. -39,. E.*E .,7- *-7- .- --.? -- -? -' ". .'? -.73 4-'3
3 3 -

?? :. : 7 .2 .33 .75 -. .7 .13 5.62
1-c -- ; "-3 5-. 5.1: -" :- 3 7.5- -'* 7.cl 5-95 5.52
.- -. .- 7. -7 -
-. -'~5'52





PES-50


A.T CH FTGS

Production of winter broilers continued through Jarn'ary at a record
or near-record level. The nun.ber of chicks produced by comnre-'cial hatcheries
in January, '.w.as 42 riercent larger than the reduce output in January last year
and is indicate,` to have been about the largest Jar.a:r output on record.
.The number of eggs set during the ncath and the .m-,z-ber of chicks on order at
the end of the month also were Tiach larger than a year earlier.

The hatchery output of baby chicks soon will be used mostly for flock
replacement rather than for co-mmercial broilers. The number of chickens raised
is ex:-ected to be lager this year than last. According to far-rers' intentions
reported. as of February 1, about 9 percent more baby chicks will be purchased
in 19141 than in 1940. Such early intentions, of course, nay b-e changed some-
what as the season ad-ances and as the feed and noultry-n products price-relation-
ships'change. The Bureau of Agricultural Economics foreca-st of this year's
hatch ,.-ill be published in the March issue of The Poultry ari u, Situation.

EGG SITUATIOi:

Eg_ production

The number of layers on farms ic about 2 percent smaller now than a
year ago, as indicated b,- the number of layers per flock on ?cbr.nary 1, but
the rate of lay per hen has be,.-:n -i-Ldher than in er.rly 11'43D when it was
drastically restricted by the sc.':-re cold front mid-January to about mid-Febru-
ary. The rate of 1-.r on Janua_-' 1 T .-s onl:' 1 percent hii--her thn-i a year earlier
but on Februar>y l :'as 42 perce?.t -bo-.'o th-It of the sn~ date in 1'Q40. The
average number of cg- laid per h-en in the month of J-'.nt-ary .s 20 -ncrcent more
thnrn in Janu:ry 'Q40. The increase over a year crrlier in ti-Le Februara,- 1 rate
of lay .was .eneral for the country as a whole but unts most nroi-ounceod in the
Central States, the .a.rea most affected by, last year's cold. As a result of
these high r"tcs of lay, egg nroLuction to date this y.;'r has been larger than
a ye.-r en-rlier. During the co.ning s-:ring and su."ner, ho.:javr, _gg production
may be smaller thann a year earlier because of the s:iall.:r nu:i.rfr of layers on
farms.

The average number of crjz _r-ruced per hen per year hhs increased
considorably. in recent .'.ears, but the increase has been mort nronournced in
the fall .nd. winter months. The increase in the :'o1cn"u-br ani' D.ccruber rate
of producti-,n is shown in the cha-rt on the cnvrr page of t.iis rr:,ort. Although
increases in the monthly output per l.,yer have been most TnYrked for IIovember
and December', irprorta.nt incre-ses also have occurred for other "off season"
months. Previous record high nu.'iers of eggs produced per 2.onth per layer
have been equalled or excedecd in mvery nonth since last Septor.ber. The Febru-
ary 1 rate of lay in the United Sta.t.es v:.s the highest on record for that date
and was the highest on record for ever-ry region .7ith the ex-ccrtion of the far
Western States, where it was exc.-dedl byL the Febra- c 139',' rate of lay.





PES-50


Egg storage

As a result of the unusually large market receipts of fresh eggs so
far this year, net storage withdrawals have been smaller than usual. This
is in direct contrast to the rapid deductions in holdings of a year earlier
when storage stocks were nearly depleted as a result of the small production
at that time. Storage stocks of privately-owned shell eggs on February 1,
1941 were about 5 times as large as the unusually small stocks of a year
earlier while stocks of frozen eggs were 4 percent smaller than on February 1,
1940. However, these holdings are about the same as the 10-year average
February 1 stocks. The Surplus Marketing Administration held only about
25,000 cases of eggs on February 1 compared with 301,000 cases on January 1,
and before the middle of February had disposed of all eggs purchased during
1940.

A net out-of-storage movement has continued since February 1, and
storage stocks of both shell and frozen eggs now are about at their seasonal
lows. '7iith continued favorable weather, net into-storage movements will be-
gin in a few weeks.

Eggs: Storage stocks in the United States and
storage movement at 26 markets

: United States: Storage movement, recek ending as of 1941
Year : stocks : Jcfn. : ecb. : Mar.
:Jan. 1 : Feb. 1: 25 : 1 : 8 : 15 : 22 : 1
1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,002 1,000 1,000
Shell a cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases
Average
1930-39 : 836 278 -66 -53 -40 -37 -19 +17

1939 : 302 136 -21 -23 8 +3 + 8 +29
1940 : 532 57 -94 -45 -14 4 + 7 +41
1941 :1/313 1/2/286 -56 -70 -23 9

Frozen :
Average
19I0-39 :1,975 1,674 --- --- ---

1939 :1,797 1,438 -20 -45 -34 -24 -11 + 1
194n :2,065 1,607 -75 -70 -71 -74 -65 -98
1941 :2,095 2/1,540 -70 -83 -68 -38

1/ Excludes Surplus Marketing Administration holdings as follows: January 1,
301,000 cases; February 1, 25,000 cases.
2/ Preliminary.

These pronounced seasonal shifts in egg production have had important
effects on all phases of the egg industry. Among the most important of these
is a change in the seasonal variation for egg prices and s change in require-
ments for egg storage. The more even distribution of monthly egg production
has reduced the quantities of storage eggs needed in the winter months and
has also resulted in a definite flattening off of the annual seasonal "hump"
in late fall egg prices.


- 6 -







Number of layers on farms, United States


Year : Jan Feb. Lar.Apr May JuneJuly Nov." Dec.

: Mil. Tr il. 11iil. miI. ?Iil. ".. I i 11 i '.il. .:ie.
Average:
193C-39: 332 325 315 301 284 267 253 246 256 278 300 322

1938 307 301 292 278 262 248 236 234 245 269 293 314
1939 : 322 316 306 292 276 260 246 242 253 279 305 326
1940 : 332 327 318 304 289 270 252 247 ?27 279 303 320
1941 : 324


Average number of eggs produced per layer, United States


Year .Jan. :Feb." Mar. Apr.* May June;July :A'ig. Se-t. Oct. 1iov. Dec.
*: No. No. No. No. No. L;. No. .:.. No. No. No. ;o.
Average :
1930-39 6.6 8.9 14.3 16.7 16.8 14.2 12.7 11.2 8.9 6.8 5.0 5.2

1938 : 7.9 9.9 15.4 17.5 17.3 14.9 13.6 11.8 9.4 7.5 5.9 6.4
1939 8.0 9.7 14.9 17.0 17.0 14.6 13.2 11.7 9.3 7..4 6.0 6.8
1940 : 7.2 9.0 14.4 16.5 17.0 14.8 13.4 11.8 9.7 7.9 6.2 6.8
1941 8.7


Total farm production of eggs, United States
:JuE .ert :Oct.
Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr.* May .June July Aug.e t.ov. ec.
: ;il. Hil. Mil. .il. Mil. 'il. :i1. ii. mil. ;;il. :il. Til.
:cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases casescases cases
Average :
1930-39 : 6.0 8.0 12.5 11.9 13.2 10.5 8.9 7.6 6.4 5.2 4.1 4.7

1938 : 6.7 6.3 12.5 13.5 12.6 10.3 8.9 7.6 6.4 5.6 4.8 5.5
1939 : 7.2 8.5 1?.6 1..8 13.0 10.6 9.1 7.8 6.5 5.7 5.1 6.1
1940 : 6.7 8.2 12.7 14.0 13.7 11.1 9.4 6.1 7.0 6.1 5.2 6.0
1941 : 7.9


1940-41 storage acLrgir ..-- e favorable
than a year earlier

Eggs are placed in stora,-e mainly durinF the months of ;.:srch-through-
June, when egg production is the highest for the year. They are taken out of
storage chiefly during the period September-through-January, ,when current
production is considerably belowt current re uirem.-nt3 for cor.sumption. The
total cost per dozen for storing eggs for this period of appnoximrtely 8
months, including deterioration of product as well as direct string costs,
is about 3 cents per cdoze-n. whetherer this cost has been met as a result of
pasi ceFsons' operations can be roughly determined by comparing the average
price of egge when they were placed into storage with the average price upon


- 7 -


PES-50






removal. (However, these prices do not allow for any premiums or discounts
which nlay have been paid or received). Such prices, weighted by net United
States. monthly storage movements, are compEred- in the accompanying tablo and
show that the, storing season no,, enlin- was rr.uch better from the viewpoint
of storage operators than the 19?9-10 season. The estimated storage margin
of the past season apparently still was insufficient to cover the necessary
costs. Nevertheless, storage demand in tne coming intr-storage season ap-
parently will be better this year than last, when the storage margin of the
preceding season was less than a tenth of a cent per dozen.

Fstin:ited storage margin on shell eggs per dozen, average 1916-35,
1925-34, annual 19 .5-40
: weighted d average : .7eihted average ,
Year :price of storage packed :Frice of refrigerator arn
: firsts at TTew York : firsts e.t S gew York :
: larch'-June : September-January :


Cents
Average
1916-35 :28.22
1925-34 24.08

1935 25.06
1936 21.24
1937 22.62
1938 20.37
1939 17.61
1940 : 17.98
1/ Preliminary.


Cents

33.16
27.69

23.66
26.82
20.54
23.95
17.64
1/ 20.41


Egg prices
The average price received by farmers for eggs declined sharply from
mid-Dercember to mid-January after increasing contraseasonally from November15
to December 15. The price in mid-January was 19.7 cents compared with 18.3
cents a year earlier and the 1930-39 average price of 22.8 cents. Although
wholesale prices in the first part of February were only fractionally lower
than in mni-January, egg prices in February averaged well below those in
FeLr"-,'ry 1940 when cold weather drastically, restricted production. On Janu-
ary 31 the Surplus Marketing Administration began purchasing eggs in the New
York and Chicago markets in an effort to support prices.

Becauze of th.? s-iler supplies of eggs in prospect for this year and
the stronger conciurer demand this y"ear t'icn last, egg prices for 1941 are ex-
pected to average higher than in 1940. T..e slightly stronger storage demand
expected for this year also will ter.d to support eeg prices in the spring
months.
Price per dozen recei-edi hy farmers for eggs, United States

Year Jan. Feb. !tar. .Apr. '. ay June :July .Aug. Sept. ct. Nov.:Dec.
:Cents Cents Cents Ce-nta Cents -Ce'n'tsf CnTs Cents 'Ce-ns' Cents Cents Cents
1930-3': 22.3 10.8 16.1 16.0 15.9 15.7 17.0 18.7 21.9 24.7 28.2 26.3

1938 : 21.6 16.4 16.2 15.0 17.6 18.2 19.9 21.0 24.9 27.1 29.0 27.9
1939 : 18.8 16.7 16.n 15.5 15.2 14.9 16.5 17.5 20.6 22.9 25.8 20.5
1040 : 18.3 20.2 15.4 15.0 15.1 14.4 16.4 17.2 21.0 23.7 26.2 26.8
1941 : 19.7


Cents

4.94
3.61

-1.40
5.58
-2.C8
3.58
.03
1/ 2.43


PES-50


- 8 -









THE POULTRY SITUATION AT A GLANCE


RECEIPTS OF POULTRY
AT FOUR MARKETS



-- ----- 1940 ^


JAN. APR. JULY OCT.


U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


NEG. 38962 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE 2


POUNDS
(MILLIONS )
40



30



20



10



0
CHICKENS
POUNDS)

10





9





8



CENTS PER
POUND




15





13





11


POUNDS
I MILLIONS 1
60




40




20




0
POUNDS
I MILLIONS I
60




40




20




0
POUNDS
I MILLIONS 1
60




40




20




0


U. S. STOCKS OF FOWLS




1941
_/ -- 1940 -

Average
1930-39






1 l i I I I


4. M. S DATA






Po'IFY : ITs'-rr.1'0i

Poultry marketing

Since Januar: 1 receipts of live ooulltry at ridrcsterr. primary markets
snd receipts of irssed poultry at principal e.r.k3ts have averaged smaller
than a year earlier. The higher egg p-ices exp-ictedt for the next several
months ard the fewer chickens no-r on farms will tend to restrict farm miarket-
ings, but receipts at principal markets may be little different from those
in early 1940 since there again vill be heavy inter-market movements of stor-
age poultry. Any larger hatch this y-ar than last vill. tend to increase
receipts in the last half of this year.

Receipts of dressed poultry at four markets
(New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, Boston)

:" '- inr. as of 1C41
Year Ji:.. : rcbo : T-.ar. : A.:. : Dec.
: 18 : 25 : 1 : l : 22 : 1 : 2o : 20 : 27
: 1,P00 i o,,oco i,3 1C,- -,t- 1,,'0C 1,,,0co 1,000 1,000
ouds pounds po- ids nouns pounds pounds pou::.'- pc0.".) Co s pouCs pounds pounds
Average:
1930--39: 5,610 6,009 5,764 4,729 4,421 4,024 4,023 5,763 25,458 9,947

1939 : 5,380 6,020 4,6F7 4,166 3,685 3,535 4,.it6 3,640 32,380 9,187
1940 : 7,C78 8,628 C,111 5,3-' 5,1.3 5,j30 4,5,4 4,623 36,909 10,766
1941 : 6,814 6,461 6,377 4,924 4,297


Poultry storage

The smaller marketing of poultry this year than last are being re-
flected in a larger net out-of-stcrage movement of frozen poultry. During
January all classes of storage poultry except turkeys sho-,ed reductions; and
turkeys increased only about 5 million pounds cori-ared vith 13 million pounds
in January 1940. For the first time in 2 years the f:.rst-of-the-month hold-
ings of turkeys were smaller than a year earlier. With the exception of
broilers and turkeys, stocks of all classes on FeLruary 1 v.ere larger than
a year earlier; stocks of fryers nerc 43 Dercent larger, stocks of fowl were
44 percent larger, and the other classes were slightly larger than a year
earlier. Stocks of all poultry on February 1 rare 15 percent larger than on
February 1, 1940.

Poultry Storage stocks in the United States
and storage movi.eret at 26 markets

United States : Cut-of-storage rnovcme.:t, week ending as of 1941
Year : stocks : Jan. : eo, : Mar.
:Jan. 1 :Feb, 1 : 25 : 1 : 8 : 15 : 22 : 1
: 1,00C0 1,030 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
: pounds pounds pounds pours pounds pounds pounds pound'
Average
193C-39 : 128,737 123,248 1,264 1,462 2,077 2,715 3,034 3,469
1939 139,108 133,531 1,521 997 2,714 2,680 2,928 3,681
1940 : 167,643 166,962 1/256 578 2,954 4,455 5,742 6,030
1941 208,365 2/191,648 -',387 3,882 4,598 5,454
i/. Tnto-s.ora re n.ovemer.t. 27./ PeTTr ar--v.-


PES -5C


- 10 *6







PSS-50 11 -

Chicken prices

The average price'receiver b'y farmers for chickens increased. about
seasonally- from mid-December to nrid-January, and in the latter ronth was only
ure-Third of a cent b.-low the IiD,.-39 average price for January. Wholesale
prices of fowls have cL.anred little since mid-January while prices of chickens
have increased slightly.

Sece.a.se of the larger consumer inocmes for this year than last, the
15 to 20 percent smaller Fupolies of pork, and the prospective smaller sup-
plies of poultry meat at least in the first half of the year, chicken prices
are expected to axverge higher throughout 1941 thl an a year earlier. These
factors also vill s. paor:" furikey prices.

Price :er cound received b- fer .cs for chic1:ens,
''r'-ed St' tes

SJ-a.: *.: : F : A?.: rr.: : .Jr: J_.,.: Aur.:S)t.: Cct.: !rov,: Dec.
] 5 : 15 : 1 1 : : 15 : 1 : 15 : 15 : 13 :15
:CL-4- Cornt: C:rtz C:rt-ns "s Crnti3 Ce.n:s :nts Ceinta 'ocns 'rens 2?rts
Aver ag~
195C0-3: 14. 14.14.4.4 15.0 1<,7 14.4 1'.1 14.0 14.5 13.7 13,.3 12.3

1. 16.7 16."* 1.5.C9 1.? 26.1 15.7 15.0 14.2 I 1-7 13,' 13.5 13.6
19 :30 14.0 1. 14._ 14.4 1I.9 1 '..4 i5,7 1C.' 1. .C 12.7 12.4 11.7
19O :12. 5 12.2 1 2.. 12.. 1.6 I1.5 13.? 13.4 ],.7 13.3 13.1 13.5
1941 : 1..7


: YT12I: LI::-D

C0r.su:er purchaslinr -'.er .:s "e?' a. varncin- steal cil- for C onth's in
response to ... co.:.i:m i e.:-:., i. i: l:-.c.3t. ac.tivity., '"orsu er demr'and
for farm products res.cnd- d -..t: .- slu'--'- .A-,' to these devel.prnents during
the early m':Tt:. s of th"_s rie, L, :' in r-e'-:r: or.t?. : ha shi-rn de finite ,vi-
dernce cf irc-a i _r.: 'e th. ,'i. t: nr -?:t 1 .:: Crc .s, chr.n'.e i, indus-
trial activity c.d ccr.su:-er inc.om.s a:r6 ex_:<:cted tm be rclativ:ly small, but
the der.and fcr farm products in -eneral should con'tinu- to imoprove.

Index num,.ers of rnonaericultural ir-cce-.

(1924-29 = 1CO, adjusted for saszonal var-."rtion)

Year Jan.. Feb. :ar. Apr, ?!--y J-une July: Aug. Sept.. Cct. l'!ov.: Dec.
Average:
1929-3-: 84.9 '4.6 84. 84.5 84.0 ?5..1 34.3 84.1 83.7 83.7 83.4 83.8

1938 : 83.0 87.6 87.4 86.5 5..9 85E.6 5.7 S7.5 89.0 83.5 69.5 90.6
1939 : 90.6 9rC. 91.3 cC.r" .8 92.1 91.8 93.3 93.3 95.0 95.9 97.1
1940 : 96.9 96.2 95.9 95.3 96.4 7.4 97.. 99.1 99.9 100,3 101.6 1, 103.3

1/ Preliminary.




PES-50


- 12 -


UNITED .'2C3S FCPEIG TRADE I,. POULTPY -PODUCTS IN 1940

Imports of eggs in the sh.ell and of all eg products except dried
yolks were smaller in 1940 than in 1935. Lnrorts of dried yolks, however,
were about four tires as large as in cthe previo's yea:-, ar.d mere than off-
set the decline in imports of the other products. Total imports of shell-
egg-equivalent were larger in 1940 than in 1939.

Exports of eggs in 194C also were larger than in the previous year,
however, and in terns of actual quantities of shell-egg Cquivalent about off-
set the larger imports. Furthslrmorer, the relative importance of imports
continued small during 1940 since they again amounted to less than one-fourth
of 1 percent of our annual domestic production.

The limited domestic market fer licui(d ard dricd hlbunaen is an im-
portant reason for the large imports of dried yolks. Since domestic require-
ments for liquid and dried yolks usually has excooded the domestic raquire-
nents for liquid and dried albIu:n it has beer nec.:ecsary either to over-
produce albumen or to import yeles.

Ir-orts of dressed and prepared poultry during 1940 vorc snaller than
in El,9 but imports of live poultry vrre larger. Exports of both live and
drcss:d poultry- during 1940 were sr. ller than in the previous year. Hov.vecr,
theso canEs arc of little significance, since toth exports and ir.ports of
poultry are of even less relative importarcc thra thosc of eggs.

S xpnorts of eggs and poultry, United States,
1939 and 1940

Comnmodity nUnit 1939 1940


Eggs in shell ..........: Doz. :
Eggs and yolks, frozen :
dried, or canned ......: Lb. :
Live poultry *........: Lb. :
Dressed poultry L.b.....: Lb. :


2,6?6,826

'ot avai lablc
164,216
2,582,c5


4,57C,806

139,082
107,879
1,680,176


Imoorts of eggs and poultry, United States,
1939 and 194C


Commodity


Eggs in shell ..........
Thole e7-s, dried *.....:
V.'ho ].- frozen .....:
Yol;..- icd *. ... *....
Yol. de .".........:
Eg dried .....:
Eg,- -n", frozen *..:
Live .: l try .........:
Baby chicks ............:
Dressed poultry ......:
Poultry, prepnarod .....:


Unit 1939 1940


Doz.
Lb.
Lb.
Lb.
Lb.
Lb.
Lb.
Lb.
N1o.
Lb.
Lb.


3226,523
61,500
420
682,8 C5
25,330
500,479
0.
826,957
806
195,280
733,795


227,411
40,950
167
2,457,536
420
332,389
0
1,438,310
2,902
382,575
327,200






- 13 -


INDEX OF SPFC.!.L .ELTS DISCUSSED IN TI~
PCULT.Y A' I) EGG- SITUATION



Fages


United f.tatec foreign trade in poultry products
in 1940 ................................. .

Estimated '-rac-c margin on shell eors per dozen,
average 1916-35 and 125-34, annual alj35-'0 ...

1916-37 ................ ... ...................

Geographic location of stora e stocks of eggs ....

Georranpic location of storage stocks of poultry .

Factors affecting the average price received by
farmers for turkeys in the United rtate- ......

Poultr- and cg- outlook for 1941 .................

Chick Tatcher".' Survey, 1937-38 ..................

A comparison of four fc.od-egg ratios .............

Change in official index of seso-nal variation
of farn egg prices ............................

Feed-egg ratio d:fl.c-d .......................

Effects of the V'orld *'ar and possible effects
of the prcser.t war **.........*................


12 This issue


9

6-8

8-11


13-16



11-13

10-13


9

10-11


This issue

February 1, 1938

December 1l24-

:'ov :rber 1940


October 14 0

September 1940

August 1940

May 1, 1940


February 2, 1940

December 4, 1939


4-7 Yovc1bc.,r 10, 1939


PES-5 0


Issue




UNivERSrTY OF FLORIDA
II 1262II 08904 0496
3 1262 08904 0496