Poultry and egg situation

THE


SIT U ACTION

BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

PES-48 DECEMBER 1940



EGGS, SHELL AND FROZEN ( CASE EQUIVALENT): STORAGE
HOLDINGS 1ST OF MONTH, UNITED STATES. 1939-40"
CASES
I MILLIONS I
,," Chicago -^ ,,... -

2
I \ I
I J T I \



New York City 1%





4 North Central A






Northeast
South
Central


Southeast _/ Western--

JAN. APR. JULY OCT. JAN. APR. JULY OCT JAN.


* EXCLUDING S.M.A.HOLDJNGS OF SHELL EGGS. BEGINNING JULY I. 1940
A EXCLUDING CHICAGO t EXCLUDING NEW YORK CITY


U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


NEG. 38786 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


A MAJOR PART OF THE SHELL AND FROZEN EGGS IN STORAGE IN THE
UNITED STATES ON THE FIRST OF EACH MONTH IS LOCATED IN THE SUR-
PLUS-PRODUCING AREAS, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES.
HOLDINGS IN THESE STATES ALSO FLUCTUATE MORE DURING THE YEAR THAN
IN ANY OTHER REGION. STORAGE HOLDINGS BY REGIONS ARE DISCUSSED
FURTHER IN THE SECTION ON EGG STORAGE IN THIS REPORT.








THE POULTRY AND EGG SITUATION AT A GLANCE

EGGS I I PERCENT I I I
DOZENS CHICAGO FEED- 105 NONAGRICULTURAL INCOI
a I-- -- lUO 105


7



6



5



4
CENTS
PER
POUND





15




13




11
POUNDS
I MILLIONS I
30


25


20


15


10


.Average 1929-38
0 L ,1 ,I h .... I,,
JAN APR. JULY OCT
A.M.S. DATA. EXCEPT NONAGRICULTURAL INCOME

*u.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


CENTS
PER
POUND
18


13
NUMBER
MILLION


325


300



275 --
Average _,
1929-38
250 -
1 '* 939

225
JAN. APR JULY OCT
INDEX NUMBERS. ADJUSTED FOR SEASONALL VARIATION

NEG 39785 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE I





PzS-4s


THE POULTRY AID EGG I ITUAT I ON




The effects on poultry meat supplies of the smaller hatch of chicks

in 1940 than in 1939 are becoming increasingly apparent. The increase in

receipts of dressed Toultry at principal markets over those of a ye'.r earlier

has been considerably less since early November than during the 3 months

ended November 1.

The into-storage movement of poultry since :'ovember 1 has been a little

larger than a year earlier, -and storage stocks of all poultry on Decenber 1

were 25 percent larger than on Decentber 1, 199. The larger Decenber stocks

this year were due mostly to the 43 percent -.larer stocks of fowl and the 21

percent larger stocks of turkeys. Although production of commercial broilers

during the next few months may be larger than a year earlier, the supplies of

chicken meat (including fowl) for the first half of 1941 are expectel to be

4 or 5 percent smaller than in the first half of 1.40.

Chicken prices during the next several months are expected to be

higher than a year earlier, as a result of larger consu or incomes, smaller

supplies of poultry me-t, end smaller supplies of pork. The average price

received by farmers for chickens in mid-November was about three-quarters

of a cent higher than a year earlier. Turkey prices now are about the s5fne

as they were at this time last year, and prices received by farmers for

turkeys, are not expected to decline as much during the nert several months as

they did in the corresponding period a year earlier.

As a result of a smaller increase in the nunbor of layers on farms and

a sharper decline than a year earlier in the rate of lay from the record high

S level of the past few months, org production in the United Staites declined


- 3-




PE"S-4 -

slightly more from October to November this year than in the corresponding

period of 1939. However, November production still was larger than a year

earlier. The net out-of-storago movement for both shell and frozen eggs

has incr-nsed substantially follo-ring the drop in production and apparent

continued inprov-.ncnt in consumer doe.iand for eggs. Egg prices have risen

considcr-bly, ".nd the focd-cgg ratio now is more favorable to producers than

it was a year *.go. The -argin of this year's eg.g prices over those of a

year earlier is eoaectcd to continue to widen during the winter and spring

because of the prospective smrc1 er sur-.lies of eggs and larger consumer

incomes.

The fccd-c.-g ratio is e:.eccted to average more favorable to producers

than a ycar onrlicr during the winter and early spring. As n result more

chickens may be raised in 194l th-in e-orn r-iscd in 1940.

December 20, 1940.

FZZD-BGG RATIO

As a result of a subst-.rtti-l risc in enr rrices ani somo decline
in facd costs the fecd-cg; ratio at COica-o declined consideorably in late
November arid early Doccrhcr. The rn.-jb-r of cggs required to buy 100 pounds
of poultry ration at Chica-o *'uri:t the w.e-k ended Dl:corm',er 14 was 4.75
dozens ccrn-.c-'i with 6.63 &ozons a ; -ear earlier and 5.90 dozens for the week
ended iUovencer 9, 10h. Bc'cauze of the high-r aeg prices rnd about the
sane or only slightly hi.*her x-:4i rices in prospect for this w-inter and
spring, thL f:cd-crg ratio is oe-cctcd to be more favorable to producers
than it was in the -.vintcr and s oring of 1939-40. As a result, nore chickens
may be raisci in 1941 thln wore rai-c'd in 1940.

Feed--c.7 ratio at Chicago

(Dozens of eggs required to buy' 100 pounds of poultry ration)

Sr, _cck crndinr as of 1940 '__.'1
Ye-ar :Jran. :Feb. : .y :ALkL,. : Oct.: Nov. : Dec.
24: :24: 25_ : _1 : 26 : 16 : 23 : 30_ :7 : 14 : 21 : 28
: Doz. Doz. Doz. loz. Dos. Doz. Doz. DLo. Doz. Doz. Doz. Dos.3
Average:
1929-3 : 4.77 5.-7 S.80 5.95 '.62 3.92 3.99 4.01 4.23 4.43 4.62 4.54

1938 : 5.30 6.92 5.41 4.26 3.79 3.61 3.8 7.56 :.,6 4.01 4.36 4.31
1939 : 5.02 6.21 7.21 6.13 5.13 4.62 4.73 5.6g 6.23 6.53 6.62 6.62
194o : 6.72 6.23 7.92 S.7S 5.95 5.76 5.34 4.53 4.30 4.75






PES-4S


EGG SITUATION

Eg production

The increase in the number of layers on farms from October to Uovember
was loss tl.Jis year than last. In '.-vember the total Twas 1 pe'-cert smaller
than in iTovenber 1933. On December 1 the number of pulletz that remained to
be added to laying flocks was nerce.t smaller than a year earlier. Thus in
January 1i41, the number of layers on farms probably vrill be a fer percent
smaller than in JajSuary 1940. The decline in the number of layers during
the cerlod January to August 19hl, ho-.ever, may be snial'.er than the decline
during the corresponding period of 1940 since prices of eggs during that
period are e:zoect.ed to be higher relative to feed costs than they wnre this
year.

Unfavorable weather conC'itions over part of the United States during
November caused some curtailment in the rate of egg pro-.luction c:"r layer
relative to the mast few months. uat even with fewer lyrers on fa[rms, total
farm production of eg s in that morth was slightly larger than the previous
record large production in Nov.-nber 1939. Because of the fev1:Cr lIyers in
prospect, cge production through the first h.?lf of 1941 is e:-pccrcd to be
smaller than during the corresponding p.uriod of Q19I0.

Ium.ber of layers on farms, United States

: : : : : : : : :
Year Jan.. Feb.. Mar.: Apr. Mi'y June. July.Aug. .:Sot.:0ct. :.lov. .Dec.
: I.1I. Iil.: 1il. Mil. Mi'l. Mil. Mil. i7 il. ~Mil. Lil. Mil. Mil.
Average:
1929-38: 335 328 318 304 237 270 256 250 259 280 303 325

1938 : 307 301 292 278 262 248 ?23 254 2h5 269 293 314
1939 : 322 316 306 292 276 260 246 242 53 '- 3C05 326
1940 : 352 327 318 304 289 270 252 "47 257 279 5C'3


Average number of a-.s producedd per layer, United States

Year Jen. ?Fcb. Mar. Apr. Hey June, JulytAug. :Scot., Oct.; Nov.fDec.
t: o. ITo. o. 170. Ioc. H 1 No. 1o. ITo. No. No.
Averapgc:
1929-38: 6.- s. 14.2 16.6 6..7 14.2 12.7 11.1 8.9 6.7 4.S 5.0

1938 : 7.9 Q-9 15.4 17.5 17.3 14.9 13.6 11.8 9.4 7.5 5.9 6.4
1939 : 8.0 5.7 14.9 17.0 17.0 14.6 13.2 11.7 9.3 7.4 3.0 6.G
1940 : 7.2 9.0 14.4 16.5 17.- 14.9 3.4 1.4 1. 9.7 7.9 6.2


- R -





PES-148 6 -

Total f arm rrjctito.r. of eg.s, United States

: : : : : : : : :
Year Jar.. .e. .Mar. A.-r. M.:.9 .jne .Ju1;. .Ang. eSept..Oct. .Nov. .Dec.-
_er_ _n__ ; r r. -* .
L: 'i. --il. 'il. -lil. -il. 'il. Eil. Mil. Mil. il. lil. ila..
:cases c"ses cases cases c-ses c.-ses cases cases crses ceses cases cases
Aver --e :
1923-3: ?.9 7.9 12.5 1-.! 13.J 10.6 9.0 7.7 S.4 5.2 4.o 1:o

1933 : 3.7 .c3 12.5 19.5 12.0 10.3 S-9 7.6 5." 5.6 4.8 5-5
1939 : 7.2 .5 12. 15. 1 .0 10.6 9.1 7.8 6.5 5.7 5.1 6.1
1940 : .7 1-.? 12.7 1-.0 1-.7 11.1 9.4 3.1 7.C 6o.2 5.2


Egg st_"-'e

The :..cli.e n roic in siovember, especially during the
last h-l f cf he ao.th, r.:sIl:-? i. o':t-of-storgo-e moveents for both shell
a.1 frozen e--s hbt"-r.t: .11:.- 1 r.:r th-an those of ." ye.". e.rlier. Storage
stocks f shell e-gs ir e Uri.! St.re-s on Decencer 1 (excluriIn the
.- .S S c".s:s held .:, the S il 'i'r-:tirg ;.inistr-tion) ee .out 10
rercen- sr i.r th-n 2;.- yr .rlier rh .rea-s stocks of frozeLn C s were about.
'ercr.t -i.:. t-".n on De.br 1, 1L39. Storage stocks of frozen and
_.- -
priv"tel-. cr..-. :.-ell :!-s CU ci. *. -.re slih-tly sallar th:.n th.ey were a
year o-_'licr.

-.' pr-ectiv: s!".llcr ra :.ztion of ejs a.nd l"-.-rer consumer in-
comes tsis -ir.tc:- -ill te.- to. ri: -c:t substantial out-of-stcrage move-
ment iurLg 1.::"irndcr :'-. c'-rr--t ouft-of-storce season. Thuas aith
egg rrices hi-e:- .2-.r a -- rlicr in rrospnct "..urin-g tic remainder of
this cut-oi--r ;... .. o- ?r, ::--. t:r.--, i-;-rd for egjs .Liring the lq941 stox
ing senson. n.:- z r--at :ri.llt s.tr-'-cr t"-.r- it -r.s dring most of the 1940
storing sfrs:n.

Geor -hic 1,c-.tion of stor..-: :ocks of eC-:s

T ,-c t r:s-entei in ch-.rt f-r: on the cover p-y of t..is re'-ort
and in fi -L: 2 sho- :he rl.rt'i-e "-. u s of schell and frozen -r':s stored
in 1.-w Ynork Cit:-, Chic-go, -.i the :rc inport-nt geographic iJivisins. The
North C.tr-.l, 7sLCrn, "-.nd Forther.st n States usually stare the largest
qu.ntiti:es f shell cjs, -r. t.e -orth Ccntr"-l, South Central, and rorth-
eastern Strt.s stare ..he l"-r-gezt -_rti.ntics of frozen -eggs. More frozen eggs
th-an shell a.r- storca in th: Sr7t:h C:ntral States, -herc:s for other -reas,
especir.11y 15 .- .-stcrn Stf-s:s, t.is i-':lationship is reversed. The South-
castern %.nd So-th Central States arc le-ast innortct-t in storinh shell aegs,
and. the Southen.st c -ni j 7st-er. States- -re least important in stcrirng frozen
eggs. Data fo:- thL:se regions .270- b:-- omitted from the sections of figure
3 w:hih "ive holi by2 s 27 D eC0r"Chic r.:4ions.

Although stor-ge holdi.is -.t :r, York City and at other cities in
deficit-proucin r.roas fluct-.te lriz the :rcnr, the fluctuations in hold-
ings, -'eci-1'-y of shell c:.7s, ir. rnrilus-nroducing areass .re mach more pro-
nounc-dL. Eold-ins of all atgs "t C.-c--o and. in the North Contral States
fluct-r.to more, respectively, than holdings in N1jw York City or in the
Northeastern S-w.t es.









EGGS: STORAGE HOLDINGS OF SHELL EGGS AND OF FROZEN EGGS
(CASE EQUIVALENT) 1ST OF MONTH. UNITED STATES, 1939-40*
CASES
I MILLIONS
SHELL EGGS
4 __ United
SStates '


3

Chicagot

2










2 Nr


Northeast*




FROZEN EGGS
United
States


2


JAN APR JULY OCT JAN APR JULY OCT JAN
1939 1940 1941
* EfXCLUDING S M A HOLDINCS OF SHELL EGGS. BEGINNING JULY 1. 140 EXCLUDING CHICAGO
*EXCLUDING NEW YORm GcTY AND CHICACO EXCLUDING NER YORR CITY


U.W.DEPAIRTMI T O0 AGIICULIUIE


IIG 381;? *IRiEAdUW AGRICUIIU1AL ECONOMiCS


FIGURE 2.- LARGER QUANTITIES OF SHELL AND FROZEN
EGGS ARE STORED IN THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES THAN IN
ANY OTHER SINGLE AREA. IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES,
THE QUANTITY OF FROZEN EGGS STORED IS LAPGER THAN THE
QUANTITY OF SHELL EGGS STORED WHEREAS IN THE OTHER
AREAS, ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN STATES, MORE SHELL
THAN FROZEN EGGS USUALLY ARE STORED. THE DATA FOR THE
TWO LEAST IMPORTANT AREAS HAVE BEEN OMITTED FROM THE
SECTIONS ON REGIONAL HOLDINGS.





PES-48 & -

During the out-of-storage season a considerable inter-market movement
of storage eggs from surplus-producing areas to deficit-producing areas takes
place. Since receipts of storage and fresh eggs are not reported separately,
the data on weekly receipts at four markets are neither an accurate measure
of receipts of fresh eggs at these markets nor a measure of farm egg produc-
tion in the United States. The results of this inter-market movement of
storage eggs may not show up in changes in storage holdings between important
cities, since additional fresh (or storage) eggs can be shipped in from more
distant country points.

Eggs: Storage stocks in the United States, and
storage movement at 26 markets

United States :Out-of-storage movement, week ending as of 1940
Year : stocks : Lov. : Dec.
:Nov. 1 :Dec. 1 : 23 : 30 : 7 : 14 : 21 : 28
1,000 1,000 1,000 1,00C 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases
Shell
Average
1929-38 : 4,733 2,506 338 314 319 286 261 228

1938 : 3,244 1,439 278 362 208 245 198 146
1939 : 3,519 1,580 0Z0 303 224 178 162 167
1940 : 4,144 _/1,968 331 417 348 222

Frozen
Average
1929-38 : 2,591 2,271 --- --- --- ---

1938 : 2,694 2,231 54 82 56 59 66 49
1939 : 2,979 2,509 68 69 51 69 71 66
1940 : 3,195 1/2,602 85 102 74 86

7/ Preliminary.

Egg prices

The average price received by farmers for eggs is continuing higher
than a year earlier. wholesale e egg prices were slightly lower then a year
earlier during the first part of November but in the first half of December
they were considerably higher than in the corresponding period of 1939.
Wholesale egg prices and prices received by farmers for eggs are expected to
continue to increase relative to those of a year earlier as the price effects
of this winter's smaller egg production and larger consumer incomes become
more pronounced. Since consumer incomes are likely to average higher Lhan a
year earlier during 1941 and egg production is likely to be smaller, the price.
received by farmers for eggs is expected to be higher than a year earlier dur---
ing most of next year.





PES-48


Price per dozen received by farmers for eggs


Year >Jan. :Feb. :Mar. .Apr. May .June .July .Aug. .Sept. Oct. Nov. *Dec.
:Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
Average:
1929-38: 24.2 20.3 17.3 16.9 16.8 16.8 lq.1 19.9 23.2 26.2 30.1 29.8

1938 : 21.6 16.4 16.2 15.9 17.6 18.2 19.9 21.0 24.9 27.1 29.0 27.9
1939 : 18.8 16.7 16.0 15.5 15.2 14.9 1G.5 17.5 20.6 22.9 25.8 20.5
1940 : 18.3 20.2 15.4 15.0 15.1 14.4 16.4 17.2 21.0 23.7 26.2


POULTRY SITUATION

Poultry marketing

Since November 1, receipts of dressed poultry at the principal markets
have continued larger than a year earlier but the excess over last year's level
has been only 11 percent since November 1 ccr.p-red to 18 percent in the previous
3 months. The smaller percentage incre-o'e in these receipts during recent weeks
is probably due to smaller marketing of fo-.l end young stock, since this year's
turkey crop was only a little smaller than a year earlier, and farmers indicated
early in the season that they would -nrk:et a larger proportion of their annual
turkey production before January 1 than th:-y did last year.

Farm marketing of poultry at primary markets during the first part of
1941 may be considerably smaller than they vere in eirly 1940, but receipts at
principal markets may be only moderately smaller, since there again will be heavy
inter-market movements of frozen poultry.

Receipts of dressed poultry at four markets

(New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, Boston)

Week eniing as of 1940
Year Jan. : Oct. : Nov. : Dec.
: 27 : 19 : 26 : 16 : 23 : 30 : 7 : 14 : 21 : 28
:1,000 1,000 1,000 ,1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,0 1,000 1,000
:pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds
Average
1929-38: 6,028 7,467 7,562 17,324 25,933 14,164 9,787 16,425 25,r24 10,525

1938 : 3,814 8,558 8,817 J3,364 17,101 8,596 10,217 24,618 17,291 6,835
1939 : 6,020 7,733 8,438 28,200 23,999 12,471 9,451 20,274 32,380 9,187
1940 : 8,628 10,327 9,796 29,526 25,818 16,500 13,656 21,802


Poultry st orange

Total storage stocks of poultry increased somewhat more during November
this year than during November 1939. The 25 percent larger stocks


- 9 -








STORAGE HOLDINGS OF DRESSED POULTRY, BY CLASSES.
UNITED STATES, AVERAGE 1934-38, AND 1939 TO DATE
POUNDS I POUNDS |
MILLIONSI FOWLS (MILLIONS) BROILERS
30 20


-0 99 9 Average 1934-38
\.1940

.20 -10 19




10 1- 1 1 1I 1I I


JAN I APR I JULY I OCT.

U. S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


JAN.I APR. JULY I OCT I

NEG ;@593 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE 3




. ES-48 11 -

of poultry in the United States on December 1 were due almost entirely to
the 43 percent larger stocks of fowl and the 21 percent larger stocks of
turkeys. These two classes combined constituted a larger proportion of tot-
al holdings of poultry on December 1 this year than they did on December 1,
1939. The record large stocks of fowl were largely a result of the large
accumulations during the late sunner and early fall months, since the net
into-storage movement for fowl in NIovember this year was considerably less
than in November l139. United States stocks of poultry, by classes, are
shown in figure 3.

The net out-of-storage movement for poultry during the first half of
1941 may be larger than during the first half of 1940, since less live poul-
try probably will be marketed after the first of the year and consumer in-
comes will be larger than a year earlier.

Poultry: Storage stocks in the United States, and
storage movement at 26 markets

:Unr.ted States stocks:Into-storage movement, week ending as of 1940
Year : v. Dec. : Hov. : ___c.
: : 1 : 23 : 30 :7 :14 : 21: 28
: 1,C00 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds
Average :
1929-38: 71,176 103,899 6,740 8,899 8,820 4,599 2,386 2,749

1938 : 77,692 118,088 9,144 12,279 7,166 4,"32 l/ 358 2,044
1939 : 79,228 127,649 9,456 17,462 9,166 4,154 10,617 5,917
1940 :114,257 2/ 159,056 6,887 15,845 13,009 8,480

21 Out-of-storage movement.
2 Preliminary.

Chicken prices

The average price received by farmers for chickens has decreased less
than seasonally since mid-Septerber and in mid-NTovember was 0.7 cent higher
than a year earlier. Wholesale prices have continued about steady since Novem-
ber 15. Ber.-use of the prospective sualleI: supplies of chicken meat, smaller
supplies of ;ork, and larger consumer incc.es, c1hieken.prices are expected to
continue hi-rer than a year earlier -t least during the first half of 1941.
Slaughter o. nogs during the rnst 7 months vas cc.nsiderably larger than a year
earlier, bi. L it is expected to decline vEry sharply in the near future. Dur-
ing the moneqs from January to Sentember 1941, hog slaughter may be about 15
percent smaller than it was in the corresponding months of 1940.

Price per pound received by farmers-for chickens

: Jan : eb. : Is.j', : pr,: hiay :June July : Aug. :Sept, : Oct.: Nov.: Dec.
Year 1 : 15 : _1 : : ] lb ." 15 : l. : 15 : 15 : 15
:Cen..- Ceri: 'en en Cents Cent; Cent Jent. Cents Cents Cents C('nts Co:.ts
Average:
1929-38: 14.8 15.0 15.3 15.9 15.7 15.5 15.1 14.9 15.2 14.6 14.1 13.6

1938 : 16.7 16.0 15.9 16.2 16.1 15.7 15.0 14.2 14.3 13.6 13.6 13.6
1939 : 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.4 13.9 13.4 13.7 13.0 13.6 12.7 12.4 11.7
1940 : 12.0 12.2 12.8 12.9 13.6 13.3 13.6 13.4 13.7 13.3 13.1





PESJ-4


FALL AND WINTER BROILERS

Hatchery production of baby chicks in November was larger than a year
earlier in the most important broiler-producing areas of the country. Hatch-
ery production of baby chicks in November for the United States as a whole
was primarily for broilers, since 92 percent of the chicks hatched were of
heavy breeds. Broiler production is likely to average larger than a year
earlier during the remainder of this winter, since chicken prices are expected. :
to be higher and fresh supplies of chicken meat from other areas %wll be
smaller than they wore last winter.

TURKEYS

The price received by farmers for turkeys usually reaches the annual
seasonal peak in November or December. The mid-November average farm price
this year was 15.5 cents compared with 14.7 cents a month earlier and 16.0
cents in November 1939. Wholesale prices for live turkeys did not decline
as sharply this year immediately following the heavy movement for the
Thanksgiving market as they did in the corresponding period of 1939. Whole-
sale prices for dressed turkeys also declined relatively little this year,
and prices for the heavier birds have remained particularly steady since
mid-November.

The wider than usual differential between retail prices of turkey hens
and heavy young toms this year in important consuming centers apparently
resulted in a heavier movement of the lower-priced large birds than in 1939,
Thus the turkey storage situation may be more favorable this season than in
the winter of 1939 when a large proportion of the turkeys in storage weighed
16 pounds and over. The into-storage movement for turkeys during November
was about 20 million pounds compared with about 18 million pounds in November
1939. Storage stocks of turkeys on December 1 were 21 percent larger than
on December 1, 1939.

Because of larger consumer incomes in prospect, smaller supplies of
chicken, and the expected decline in hog marketing, prices received by
farmers for turkeys are not expected to decline as much during the next
several months as they did in the corresponding period a year earlier.

Price per pound received by farmers for live turkeys

Year : Jan.: Feb.: Mar.: Apr.: May : Juno: July: Aug.:Sept.: Oct.: Nov.: Dec..
:15 : 15 15 15 15 : 15 19: 1 : : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15
:Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
Average :
1934-38: 15.8 15.7 15.4 15.3 14.6 14.0 13.9 13.8 14.6 15.5 16.9 17.6

1938 : 17.5 17.7 17.2 17.0 16.4 15.6 15.7 15.0 16.0 16.5 17.1 18.4
1939 : 18.3 17.5 17.6 16.9 15.6 14.7 14.4 14.3 15.4 15.3 16.0 15.6
1940 : 14.2 14.0 13.7 13.5 13.2 12.9 12.9 13.4 14.3 14.7 15.5


- 12 -




4".


13 -

DOMES'Il DSIEMAND


Domestic demand conditions continue to improve. Industrial activity
reached a new peak in November and, under the ztirmulus of the domestic defense
program and large exports of war nateriljs, is erpecied to nake an additional
gain of about 2 percent in Decomber. Coniu.mer incomes are increasing along with
the expanding industrial activity and the domestic consiuner demand for agricul-
tural products, in f2;'cral, is continuing to improve. A leveling off or perhaps
some temporary declire- in the seasonally adjusted index of industrial activity is
expected within the ni::t few months, but this probably 1ll not last long enough
to result in any weakness in the domestic demand for farm products.

Index num-bers of ronagricultural income
(1924-29 = 100, adjusted for seosonnl variation)


Year Jan., Feb.: Mar., Apr." May : iune July: Aug.,Sept.: Oct.
Average : .
1929-38: 84.9 s4.6 84.9 84.5 s4.o 85.1 s4.3 84.1 83.7 83.

1938 : 8.0 87.6 87.4 g6.5 85.9 85.6 85.7 87.5 8S.o 3.
1939 :90.6 90.9 91.3 90.0 90.8 92.1 91.8 95.3 93.3 95.
1940 : 96.9 96.2 95.9 95.3 96.4 97.4 97.8 99.1 99.8 1/100.


; Nov., Dec.

7 83.4 83.8


.5 89.5
.0 95.9
.0


90.6
97.1


I/ Preliminary.






- l34 -


INDEX OF SPECIAL SUBJECTS DISCUSSED IN THS
POULTRY AND EGG SITUATION


Geographic location of storage stocks of eggs .....

Geographic location of storage stocks of poultry ,.

Factors affecting the average price received by
farmers for turkeys in the United States ......

Poultry and egg outlook for 1941 .................

Chick Hatchery Survey, 1937-38 ....................

A comparison of four feed-egg ratios ..............

Estimated storage margin on shell eggs per dozen,
average 1916-35 and 1925-34, annual 1935-39 ....

1916,-37 .............................. .........

Change in official index of seasonal variation
of farm egg prices ...........................

Feed-c;~ :-itio defined ............................

Effects of the World War and possible effects of
the present war .................................


Pages

6-s

8-11


13-16

i-i
11-13

10-13


11-12

9


9

10-11


Issue

December, 19*

November, 19W|t


This issue

September, 19:

August, 19140

May 1, 1940


March 2, i1 "

February 1, 1


February 2, isi

December 4, 1is


November 10#


PES-4g


UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
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