Poultry and egg situation

p" "Jw- S---I T U AT IO

BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS .I
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

*__ __ OCTOBER 1940


PRODUCTION AND PRICE OF TURKEYS. AND INDEX NUMBERS OF
NONAGRICULTURAL INCOME. UNITED STATES. 1929-39


PRODUCTION
, POUNDS
( MILLIONS I
600


0
INCOME
. PERCENT



100


60


PRICE
CENTS PER
POUND
30


0
INCOME
PERCENT


1929 1931 1933 1935 1937 1939
* TIRKEY5 SOLD PLus TURKEYV. CONSUMED IN FARM HOUSEhOLDS ADJbU' TED FOR CHAC'CES It' ,'VEWTORY
6OCT TO JAN PRICEs, W'EICHTED AS FOLLOWS OCT NOI v DEC E5 .,AN 2
I AVERAGE AUC TO JAN


U. s


DEPARrUMErI C


F AGRICULTURE


hEG !8a46 BUREAu Or AGfC.ULiURAL ECONOMICS


CHANGES FROM YEAR TO YEAR IN PRICES RECEIVED BY FARMERS FOR
.} TURKEYS WERE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES FROM YEAR TO YEAR
IN NONAGRICULTURAL INCOME FROM 1929-35. SINCE 1935, HOWEVER,
TURKEY PRODUCTION HAS EXPANDED CnfSIDERABLY AND THE EFFECTS ON
TURKEY PRICES OF THE HIGHER LEVEL OF NONAGRICULTURAL INCOME HAS
BEEN OFFSET BY THE EFFECTS OF THE LARGER PRODUCTION.


I I II I I


Nonagricultural income'
-- (1924-.29:iOl;













I i I I I


60








THE POULTRY AND EGG SITUATION AT A GLANCE
EGGS E PERCENT \ I I
DOZENS CHICAGO FEED- A 105 NONAGRICULTURAL INCO
a 'I ~ r PAc f ATin lu' rI .- -- .--. .


7



6-
1939

5 --1940--------
Average --Vl
1929-68


CENTS I i I
PER FARM PRICE OF CHICKENS
POUND

SAverage
1929-38

15 -




13

2^ 1939
*1940
"i ._. _- 1 I-
POUNDS I |
i MILLIONS I RECEIPTS OF POULTRY
30 AT FOUR MARKETS__

25 -

20 19-39

15


10 1940--

5
"Average 1929-38
0 ,,,I ,,,I I .... I 1,1.. 1 n in -, L "i.. ,
JAN. APR JULY OCT.
A.M S. DATA. EXCEPT NONAGRICULTURAL INCOME

U S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


CENTS
PER
POUND
18


JAN APR. JULY OCT.
*INDEX NUMB8RS.ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION

NEG 3680O BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE I







PES-6


THE POULT RY A D EGC-G SITUAT I OI




In this issue: Outlook for 1940 Turkey Marketings




Su')lies of turkey meat may be slightly larger this fall and winter

'than last. There was an increase of 1 percent in the number of turkeys

..raised this year, a slightly heavier average weight per bird, and a larger

storage sTrck at the beginning of this season. But the effect of these
..larger supplies on pricess may be partly offset by the effects of larger

.consumer incomes and sm aller Sur'lies of chicken and. pork. An additional
-favorable factor is that consumers now eat turkey more frequently than

heretofore. Hence, the average price per pound received by farmers for

the major part of the 1940 crop of turkeys is expected to be about the same

as or somewhat lower than the average received for most cf the 1939 produo-

i:.: O. Turkey prices in earl- 1'41 mL-a" be higher than a year earlier.

:. onthly egL production during the la.t few months was the largest for

t-hose months since 1I31. This la:-er production was the result of the higher

.average rate of lay per bird si:.ce about 4 percent fewer layers were on farms

than in 1931. However, the increase in the number of layers on farms from

now unttil Januay, will be less than in 1939, and thus egg production during

the remainder of this ,year probably will be less than in the corresponding

period of 1939. Egg production in the first half of 1941 is expected to be

less than a year earlier. Storage stocks of privately owned shell and frozen

eggs now are about the same as a -r.ar earlier. Thus with the larger con-

g:. summer incomes in prospect higher egg prices than a year earlier are expected

:' for the remainder of this year and at least for most of 1941.


- 3 -






PEs-46


Receipts of poultry at principal markets were larger than a year

earlier during the last few weeks due to the late hatchings this year,

the heavier movement of turkeys, and the earlier-than-usual marketinr1s of

later hatched chickens. But the increase in receipts is not expected to

continue, since marketing of fowl and chickens during the neo-f few months

probably will be smaller than a year earlier. Storage holdings of fowl and

all classes of chickens were increased more than usual beLucen Sentember 1

and October 1 this year and holdings of all frozen poultry on October 1 wcre

43 percent larger than on October 1, 1939. As a result of the -rospective

smaller supplies of poultry meat (excluding turkeys), smaller supplies of

pork, and larger consumer incomes, the margin of tLis years prices received

by farmers for chickens over those of a year earlier is expected to continue

to widcn for the next several months.

October 19, 1940

EED-ErGG PAT:O

The p-'oopective supplies of feed grains for 1940-41 are now estimated
to total about 113 million tons, the second largest supply in 20 years, and
12 percent above the 1929-32 average. The nu-ober of grain-consuming animal
units is expected to be smaller 1his year than lIst and the supply of feed.
grains per animal will be the largest on record. Total supplies of high
protein feeds and other concentrated feeds used extensively for poultry feed-
ing are expected to be little larger in o190-41 than in 1939--40. However,
prices of feeds are expected to remain fairly stable since the corn loan pro-
gram is an important factor sup-rorting all feed prices.

The cost of the poultry ration used in computing the Chicngo feed-egg
ratio was somewhat higher than a year earlier during recent .weeks largely be-
cause the price of corn did not decline this year as it did in October 1939-
Although the cost of this ration probably will continue as hi-ih as or higher
than a. ye.r earlier during the remainder of this year and i.t least for the
first part of l')-l, thc. number of eggs required to buy 100 pounds of feed,
based on Chic"ago prices is expected to average fever because of the higher egg
prices expected for the coming winter and spring e-g laying season.






PES-46


Fced-egg rntio at Chicago

(Dozens of eggs required to buy 10C pounds of poultry ; ration)


: Teok ending as of 1940
Year :Mnr. :June : Aug.: Sort. : Oct. :IUov. :Dec.
: SO : 29 : 31 : 14 : 21 : 2g : 5 : 12 : 19 : 26 : 2 : 28
: Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Do:. Doz. Do:. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz.


Average:
1929-3S: 6.60 6.79


: 6.70
: 6.35
: 7.59


5.50
6.71
7.47


5.59 5.65 5.63 t.7 9 5.04 4.90 4.76 4.62 4.2I 4.54


4.26
6.1
6.78


4.16
6. 59
6.25


4. 13

5.o7


4. 10C
6.39
6.02


6.10
:6.17


)3.71
5.79
6.19


3.71 3.79 3.-4
5.29 5.13 4.73


ExG SiUATIO1T


.Nunmber of layers on farms

The nun::ber of l..crs on f-ins increased much loss front August to Sop--
tember this -'e-r than bctr.c-n the' corires-ondiTn- 2 months of 1933. This
-tendency is likely to continue .r.rin:- th.e rennainder of this year because of
the snallzr numbc'r of bullets non or. fa.rm anrd available for i'Lpicinr stock
that is c.:Llled out. The decline in rturbrs from Jan'.uLrar to August 13141 nay
be less thr- In 19h0, since prices of both ?,egs and chickens arc e.-.pected to
l.be higher relasi-.e to feed cost: during that period than they wnre in Janua.ry
to August of 1940.

The o-.-:r.;e number of l':irs on fi-rms d.i-rirng SLcpt,-mber of this year
was about 2 -'prccnt l.gr the-n in Setcnber 13. but sliEhtly below the
0-year avcr-:.,2 for S,-nt :.ibcr. The nu-.ber of I ncres e-pecte,. to be on fI.rms
in. Ja-nuarry 1941 is c:-xpected to be -bout 5 percent *ia.7ller thl'n in J.-nur, 1940.

Hunbcr of inlers oi farms, United. States

Year Jnn. Fe'b. I.:a-. *Ar. 1y Ju-e July A.Sout. Oct." eov.I Dec.
: mi. 2il.. Sil.- 11 i.' ?=11.. Mil.: Ei!. il.- Ml.; Sil. il. il.' il.
Average:
1929-38: 335 32S 318 304 227 270 256 250 259 2'20 303 325

1938 : 307 301 292 279 262 248 236 254 24 2a 9 293 314
1939 : 322 31b 306 292 276 260 246 242 253 27 50 5 326
1940 : 332 327 31S 304 2S9 270 252 247 257


Egg production

The a-.vrrcc, number of e-rs produced per la.ycr in Scpteaber was larger
than a ye-r earlier for the fourth consecutive month. Thus with only 2 percent
more li-yers than in Se-tMnbcr 139, 6 percent more eggs were produced. This


- 5 -









marks the fourth consecutive month this year during which production of
eggs was the largest since the corresponding month in 1931.

5z cronduction during the first half of 1954 probably will be less
than in the first half of 1940, qairnly because of the aprreci:. by smaller
number of :lay-'ers elected to be on f-rms during that period. Egg nrcduction
in the last few -onths of 1,J41 my' be larger than in the last few months of
1940, follo'ri:g the expected larger hatch in 19441 compared to 19,40.

Total farm production of eggs, United States

Year Janu. Feb. llpr,. :Apr. Hfiy *June July Aai. ;Sert. Oct. (Nov. Dec.
: 1I1 1. [!.1 lMil. I.fil. i.il. lil. I.:il. lHil. 7il. Eil. Mil. Mil.
:cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases carses cases cases
Average:
1929--3: 5.) 7.9 12.5 14.1 13.3 10.6 9.0 7-7 6.4 5..2 14.0 4.o

1935 : .7 3.3 12.5 13.5 16.4 !'.3 S.9 7.. 6.4 5.6 .4.S 5.5
1939 : 7.2 5.5 12.6 13. 13.0 10.6 39.1 7.3 6.5 5.7 5.1 6.1
1940 : 3.7 6.2 12.7 14.0 13.7 11i. 9.h 3.1 7.0


Avernz.Ie number of eg' s produced per loyer, United States

Year J7r. >?eb. Liar. Apr. Lay J e July Aug. Sept. Oct.: Nov. Dec.
: :o. :1o. ITo. ITT. Io. 0To. o70. 1o-. o10. 1o. No. No.
Averrzi e:
1929-35: 6.3 s.6 14.2 16.6 l,.7 P4.2 12.7 11.1 5.9 6.7 4.8 5.0

1935 : 7.9 9.59 5.4 17.5 17.3 14.9 13.6 11.S 9.4 7.5 5.9 6.4
1939 : .0 9.7 4.9q 17.0 17.0 14.6 13.2 11.7 9.3 7.4 6.0 6.S
1940 : 7.2 9.0O 14.4 16.5 17.0 !4.' 13.4 11.S 9.7


Mgg storage

Total storage stocks of shell eggs in the United States on October 1
were about 10 percent larger than a year earlier, but included in these
holdings were 900,915 cases held by the Surplus Larketing Admini station.
Stocks of privately owned shell and frozen eggs were a fraction of a percent
smaller than on October 1, 1939. The out-of-storage movement for shell and
frozen eggs will tend to be heavier than a year earlier during the remainder
of 1940 since consumer demand is expected to continue to imnr've and production
during these months is expected to be smaller than in the corresponding months
of 1939. Storage stocks of frozen em;-s on October 1 were 7 percent larger than
on October 1, 1939.


- 6 -


PES-46






PES-46


Eggs: Storage stocks in the United States, and
storage uovc.ent at 26 markets


: United States : Cut-of-storazs movement,
: stocks : _week ending as of 1'40
er : : Sort. : Oct. : Tov.
: 1 Ot. 1 : 2 : 5 : .12 : 19 : 26 : 2
*' :;522 1


: 1,OCO
S CaSes
*


1,C00 1,00C0
cases caD.:s


1,000c
cases


1,000
cases


7,949 6,745 210


5,9;42
6,59S
7,241


4,765
5,430
1/6,039


1,000
cases


304

223
329


1,00CC
c,-ses


1,000
cases


321

249
290


3,212 2,922


3,572
3,384
4, -62
4,162


3,150
3,471
1/3, 732


I/ Prelimina i-y.

Egg -prices

The average price rccci'ied by farmers for eggs increased more than
seasonally from Au gust to Sept :-tbr despite a loss thin seasonal decline in
.* egg production between these 2 months. As a result the averr.ne farm price
for eggs in nid-Scnt cubor was hi:,h:r than ai .-eari earlier for the first time
.: since mid-Februnry. Wholesalo ag prices, since September 15, have continued
above the co''rrespondin. levels of 1939, Thus, with es1all.'r e s 'pp:,lies ex-
pected for the rem:,ainder of lc40 and larger consucr incomes in prospect con-
pared to a year earlier it is ec.pectcd that the farm price for cg-s nill con-
tinue higher th-,n a .year earlier for the remainder of 1940 and ?.t lea-.st for
most of 1941.

Price per dozen received by fo.rncrs for eggs

Year Jan. ;Feb. "'ir. Apr. I Hay June "July :AU. :Spt.: Oct.: Nov.: Dec.
:Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cants
Average:
1929-3g: 24.2 20.3 17.3 b16. 16.S 16.S 18.1 19.9 23.2 26.2 30.1 28.8


21.6
IS.g
15.3


16.4
16.7
20.2


16.2
i6. 0
15.4


15.9
15.5
15.0


17.6
15.2
15.1


1i.2
14.9
14.4


19.9
16.5
16.4


21.0
17.5
17.2


24.9
20.6
21.0


27.1
22.9


29.0 27.9
25.S 20.5


Shell:
Average
1929-38

.:19 39
1939
1940o
Ftos en:
AverLge
1929-38
* ".. ,1938
1939
194o


- 7-







POULTRY SITUATION

Poultry marketing

Receipts of dressed poultry at the four principal markets from July 1
through the week ended October 12 were 12 percent larger than a year earlier.
Farm marketing during this same period, as indicated by receipts at primary
central western packing plants also were larger than a year earlier and young
stock constituted a larger proportion than ordinarily would be expected on the
basis of the considerably smaller hatch this year. Storage stocks of chickens
also increased more than usual between September 1 and October 1 thus tending
to confirm the above indication of a heavy farm-to-market movement of young
stock during September.

The heavier receipts this year probably are the result of the combined
effects of the late hatch this year, of marketing of chickens at little
lighter weights and at a younger age than usual and of the larger number of
fowl removed from laying flocks. The movement of turkeys probably will be
as heavy as or heavier than a year earlier but marketing of chickens (in'-
cluding fowl) are expected to be smaller. Therefore it appears that the
present heavy movement of poultry will not continue and it is expected that
weekly receipts for the remainder of this year and for the first part of 1941
will average smaller than a year earlier.

Receipts of dressed poultry at four markets

(New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, Boston)

: Week ending as of 1940
Year : Aug. Sept. : Oct. a Nov.
: 24 : 31 : 14 : 21 : 28 : 5 : 12 : 19 : 26 1 30
:1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
Average :pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds
1929-38: 5,213 5,370 5,756 6,lSl 0,517 o,812 7,229 7,467 7,562 14,161

1938 : 4,6-:4 5,005 5,972 6,66s 6,91l 7,676 8,050 S,558 8,817 8,596
1939 : 5,C.24 6,081 6,443 7,371 7,530 S,291 8,526 7,733 8,438 12,471
1940 : 7,co00 7,547 7,979 s,478 8,403 8,779 9,54s



Poultry storage

The net into-storage season for dressed poultry apparently began in
early September, which was about 2 weeks earlier than last year but about a
month later tnan usual. The continued heavy marketing of fowl and the marked
increase in marketing of young stock probably largely account for the earlier
beginning this year compared to 1939.

Whereas storage stocks of broilers, fryers and roasters on September 1
were smaller than a year earlier, stocks of fryers and roasters on October 1
were larger. All three classes increased substantially more than usual during
September, reflecting heavy farm marketing. Stocks of fowl on October 1 were


PES-46


- g -








nearly twice those of a year earlier and were more than one-third larger
than the previous record large on October 1, 1936. Stocks of ducks on
October 1 were the largest on record. Stocks of turkeys declined more than
a year earlier during September but on October 1 were still nearly twice
the October 1, 1939 stocks. Storage stocks of all poultry in the United
States on October 1 were 43 percent larger than a year earlier and were 64
percent larger than the 10-year average for that date. However due to the
smaller hatch this year combined stocks of fowl and all classes of chickens
.may be somewhat smaller on January 1, 1941 than on January 1, 1940.

Poultry: Storage stocks in the United States, and
storage movement at twenty-si. markets

:United States stocks: Into-storage movement, week ending as of 1940
Year : Sept. : Oct. :. Sept. : Oct. : Nov.
: 1 : 1 :28 : 5 : 12 : 19 : 26 : 2
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000- 1,000 1,000 1,000
pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds

Averaggo
1929-38: 47,788 55,073 1,926 2,204 2,330 2,704 3,110 3,362

1938 : 54,941 59,942 2,144 2,4-3 2,307 3,043 4,117 3,5s6
1939 : 62,S70 63,164 1,s49 441 5,262 2,452 3,038 4,740
1940 : 82,178 1/90,446 2,254 2,377 2,950

1/. Preliminary.

.)-Chicken prices

The average price received by farmers for chickens increased about
the usual amount from August to September and was above the price of a year
i, earlier for the second month this year. Improved consumer demand and
: decreasing supplies of chickens and other meats explain the increasing chicken
9 prices during recent months. These favorable influences are expected to
dominate the situation during the remainder of this year and the first part
of 1941. Prices received by farmers for chickens during this period are ex-
pected to be higher than those of a year earlier.

Price per pound received by farmers for chickens

:Jan. :Feb. IMer. sApr. I'May IJune ,July iAug. i8ept.:0ect..INoV. iDec.
Year 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 15 : I : 15 : 15 :: 19 : 15 : 15
'Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
Average:
1929-38:14.s 15.0 15.3 15.9 15.7 15.5 15,1 14.9 15.2 14.6 14.1 13.6

1938 :16.7 16.0 15.9 16.2 16.1 15.7 15.0 14.2 14.3 13.6 13.6 13.6
1939 :14.0 14.2 14.3 14.4 13.9 13.4 13.7 13.0 13.6 12.7 12.4 11.7
1940 :12.0 12.2 12.3 12.9 13.6 13.3 13.6 13.4 13.7'


PES-46


- 9 -







PES-46 10 -

FALL AND WINTER BROILERS

Hatchery production of baby chicks dufitg *rece'it months has been
larger than a year earlier in most broiler producing areas of the country...
This probably is partly the. result of the continued expansion of the broiler
industry but largely the result of the improvement in chicken prices com-
pared to the fall of 1939. Higher prices resulting from smaller supplies
of chicken and competing meats-, primarily pork and the expected larger con-
sumer incomes in prospect, ,may:.tend to cause a larger production of broilers
this fall and winter than in the 1939-40 commercial broiler season.


: See Septombur issuo :of Poultry and Egg :
:Situation for: 1940-41 outlook for chickens and eggs:

TURKEYS

Turkey production in 1940 is now indicated to be about 33,138,000
birds which is 1 percent larger than the record large 1939 crop. The larger
number of turkeys produced this year is the result of larger home hatching
of poults since commercial hatchings were smaller than in 1939. The tendency
toward heavier average weight of turkeys marketed apparently has continued
this year. Hence, turkey meat production in 1940 may be slightly larger than
the record large 1939 production.

Storage stocks of turkeys were reduced by about 50 million pounds
between February 1 and October 1 of this year compared with a reduction of
about 18 million pounds during-the corresponding months of 1939. But stocks
on October 1 were still nearly twice those of a year earlier and were the
largest on record for that date. However, even the large October 1 stocks
were less than 3 percent of the 1939 or 1940 production of turkey meat.
Ordinarily, storage stocks of turkeys decline during October. Thus by November
1 the storage stocks of turkeys- may constitute only a moderately larger-than-
usual proportion of current annual production.

The effects on prices of the slightly larger turkey meat supplies
indicated for this year compared with a year earlier are expected to be
partly offset by the effects of a higher level of consumer incomes. Thus,
turkey prices during the remai-nder of 1940 when the bulk of this year's
production is marketed, may be- about- the same or somewhat lower than in the
corresponding months of 1939. The margin between the 1939 and 1940 farm
prices of turkeys narrowed from more than 3-1/2 cents in January and February
to about 1 cent in August and-September. Some early market prices for
turkeys this fall were only slightly below corresponding 1939 prices.. Average
prices received by farmers for turkeys in early 1941 are expected to e .
higher than in the first part of 1940.

Chicken prices 'this fall are higher than a year earlier relative to
turkey prices, and supplies of chickens are smaller. These factors will







PES-46


- 11 -


tend to rAsult in increased consumption of fresh killed turkeys this fall
compared to the fall of 1939. The prospective smaller slaughter of hogs
in the United States in 1941, compared with 1940, will be an additional
supporting influence to poultry meat prices during the coming year. Since
poultry meat constitutes a comparatively small proportion of total meat
consumed in the United Stated, -es indicated in a following table, it is
to be expected that a reduction in the slaughter of meat animals has
considerable more effect on poultry meat prices thFan a reduction of poultry
meat supplies has on prices of other meats.

Price per pound received by farmers for live turkeys

:Jan. :Feb. :Mar. :Apr. : May :June :July :Aug. :Sept.:Oct. :Nov. :Dec.
Year : 1 : 15 : 15 : 15 15 : 15 : 15 1 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 15
:Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
Average : -
1934-33:15.2 15.7 15.4 15.3 14.6 l4.0 13.9 13.3 14.6 15.5 16.9 17.6

1938 :17.5 17.7 17.2 17.0 16.4 15.6 15.7 15.0 16.0 16.5 17.1 18.4
1939' :1.3 17.5 17.6 16.9 15.6 14.7 14.4 14.3 15.4 15.3 16.0 15.6
1940 :14.2 14.0 13.7 13.5 13.2 12.9 12.9 13.4 14.3



Meat production in the United States, total and per capital consumption
of each of six kinds, dressed weight basis, 1939 I/

: : Consumntion : Percentage
Meat : Production : Total Per capital : of total
___: : : :meat consumed
: Million Million
pounds pounds Pounds Percent

Beef ................... : 6,901 7,049 53.7 35.2
Veal ................... : 9 4 934 7.1 4.7
Lamb and mutton .........: S74 871 6.6 4.3
Pork (excluding lard) ..: 8,534 3,347 63.6 4l.6
Chickens ...............: 2,463 2,462 18.7 12.3
Turkeys ................. 411 i: Z 2.9 1.9
Total ...........: 20,117 20,045 152.6 100.0
I/ Data for beef, veal, lamb and mutton, and pork were taken from the
Agricultural Marketing Service publication "Livestock, Meats and Wool Market
Statistics and Related Data, 1939". Data for chickens and turkeys were
compiled by tha Bureau of Agricultural Economics from Agricultural Marketing
Service data.






PES-46


12-

Indicated number of turkeys raised in 1940, by regions,
compared with numbers in past years


.: umber raised : lumberr on hand: Indicated
"._4ographic : :__ Sept. 1, 1940: number
divisions : Average : 1938 1939 in percent : raised
S1932-36 : : : of 1939 : in 1940 i/
: Thousands Thousands Thousands Percent Thousands

Horth Atlantic .......: 1,222 1,661 2,072 98 2,041
East North Central ...: 2,00 2,692 3,370 111ii 3,743
West .lWorth Central ...: 6',.430 7,S29 10,225 10l, 10,622
South Atlantic .......: 2,090 2,166 2,1, 103 2,624
South Central ........: 6,123 5,269 6,670 94 6,299
-Nestern .............. : 5.161 6,062 7,8 47 99 7,309

-inited States ........: 23,081 26,279 3,73 101.2 33,138

1/ Indicated by change in numbers reported in sample flocks on September 1, 1940.

DOKEST IC DEdAND

Improvement in general business conditions and consumer purchasing
power, which has been resulting in an increase in the domestic demand for
farm products in recent months, is continuing. The Lnprovement since April
in industrial activity is being reflected in increased employment and larger
incomes of consumers. Conditions appear favorable to a continued high level
of industrial activity, and there mar" b- some further gains oy tie end of
the year. The defense program and the large volume of industrial exports
are the principal factors of strength in the situation, furnishing a huge
backlog of industrial orders.

Index numbers of nonagricultural income
(1924-29 = 100, adjusted for seasonal variation)
Revisions as :-f S3,ptemb-r, 19i

Year J jan. Feb. liar. Apr. May aJune July u Aug. 'Seot." Oct. Nov.: Dec.
Average :
1929-38: 84.9 84.6 84.9 84.5 34.0 o8.1i 3.3 "84.1 83.7 33.7 83.4 83.8


1938 : 88.0
1939 : 90.6
1940 : 96.9

I/ Preliminary.


87.6

96.2


87.4
01.3
95.9


36.5
90.0
05.3


35.9
90.8
96.4


92.1
97.4


85.7
91.8
97.8


37. 35 88.0
93.3 93.3
L/o.O


89.5 89.5 90.6
?5.0 95.9 97.1







PES-46


FACTORS AFFECTING THE AVERAGE RICE RECEIVED BY
FARMERS FOR TURKEYS T[, THE UNITED STATES

The effects on turkey prices of changes in production of turkeys and
changes in consumer demand from 1'29-30 are indicated in the chart on the
cover pacg of this report. The average annual price, as used in this analysis,
is an average of the mid-month prices October through January weighted as
follows: October 2, november ., December 3, and January 2. These weights
roughly approximate the propcrt i-,n of turkeys sold in each month. Prices for
other months of the year v;re not included since, for most of the years in-
cluded in the analysis, sales of turkeys from farms in these months were only
a very small part of total annual sales.

Production of turkey" as used in this study, consists of the production
of turkey me:.t for sale and is the product cf the number of birds sold in each
geographic division multiplied by the annual average eight p.:r bird sold in
each division. Ch:.nges in consumE-r de'rnd in this analysis are measured by
the simple average of the seasonally adjusted index nurimbers of nonagricultural
income payments for the months August through January. The production of
chicken meat for sal: also was included in this *nral--sis as an additional
factor affecting turkey prices. The method used to determine the pounds of
chicken meat produced for s'le w.ss the sar:.e as th-t used to obtain the com-
parable fiwur- for turkey-s. Figure 2 shov,.s graphically the relation of
turkey prices to each of the other factors after ,justingc the price and the
variable to which price is being rel.ited for the respective influence of the
two remaining variables. In oth.r words, these charts show the effect that
each price-determining factor -i-.s on turkey prices wlvihn each of the two
remaining price-detirmining factors are held constant, statistically, at
their 1929-39 average levels. This analysis indicates th.t, for these years,
changes in nonagricultural. income were more Lrinprtant in causing year-to-year
changes in turkey prices than changes in supplica of turkeys -nd chickens.

Each change of a millionn poLnds in th,. vo:.lume of turkey produced
for sale, on th- -verage, resulted in a change in the opposite direction of
about .03 cent per pound in the pric- r.cive-d o.' farm-r,.rs for turkeys when
each of the factors (price and production of turkeys) had been adjusted for
the estimated effects cf non.-grlcult ural income and production of chickens.
On this basis, an increase of 5C million pounds in thC production of turkeys
would cause on the average a dtcrease in the price of turkeys of 1.6 cents.
Each change of one- point in the index numbers of non .gricultur..l income pary-
ments, en the average, resulted in a change in the sn.,e direction of 1 'L of
a cent in the average price received by farmers for turkeys when e~ch :f the
factors (turkey prices and nonagriculturl income) ha:d been adjusted for the
estimated effects of production of turkeys and of chickens. SimLila-rily, each
change of ., z-illion pounds in the volume of chicke-ns produced for s:-lc, on
the average, resulted in a change in the opposite direction of about .01
center in the av-rage price received by fo-ir.:ers for turkeys when e.ch of the
factors (price of turkeys and production of chickens) had been adjusted for
the estimated effects of nonagricultural income and production of turkeys.
Thus, an increase of 50 million pounds in the production of chickens would
result, on the average, in a decrease of .6 cents in the price of turkeys.


- 13 -

















S 23
U,
bd
I,-


12





o 15
UJ


I 13


11


PRICE OF TURKEYS RELATED TO VARIOUS
FACTORS, UNITED STATES. 1929-39

PRICE AND PRODUCTION OF TURKEYS FOR SALE
(ADJUSTED FOR ESTIMATED EFFECT OF NONAGRICULTURAL INCOME PAYMENTS
AND PRODUCTION OF CHICKENS FOR SALE I
I I I I I T1


170 200 230 260 290 320 350 380 410
.PRODUCTION OF TURKEtS FOR SALE ( MILLIONS OF POUNDS)
PRICE OF TURKEYS AND NONAGRICULTURAL INCOME PAYMENTS
(ADJUSTED FOR ESTIMATED EFFECT OF PRODUCTION OF TURKEYS AND CHICKENS FOR SALE 1
23 1 1 1 1


21
0-
o
U- 19






s 15
13

In
z
" 15


I-

a-


I 23
>-
a-
I 21
I-

"-z 19
0

17
i:1.

S15

I'
U
S13


Q- 11


`32 I L I I L
69 74 79 84 89 94 99 104
NONAGRICULTURAL INCOME PAfMENTS INDEX NUMBERS I 1924 29 100 I AV. AUG -JAN
PRICE OF TURKEYS AND PRODUCTION OF CHICKENS FOR SALE
(ADJUSTED FOR ESTIMATED EFFECT OF NONAGRICULTURAL INCOME PAYMENTS
AND PRODUCTION OF TURKEfS FOR SALE I


1.44 1.48 1.52 1 56 I 60 1.64 I 68 1.72 1.76
PRODUCTION OF CHICKENS FOR SALE I BILLIONS OF POUNDS I)
* WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE OF TUE VEYS. OCT.. JA- I WEICHTS OCT I NOV J DEC a. ANDJAN..21


440


109


1.80


U.S_ DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


MEG 38667 BUREAU OF AGRICULIURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE 2


w
In-
Id






FES-46


- 15 -


On the basis of the prosr-ects for supplies of chickens and turkeys
and non-agricultrral income, ths:. analysis indicates that the weighted
average price received b-y fiarers for t'ik;,': front October to January in
1940-41 will be som.-,hat hi-her than in i'39-0. Put a consideration of
some other factors not include in t:ie anrl:c-zis indicate that prices in
these months of 1940-i mre- be about the nari-e or -omevhot lower than in the
correspcna.inq mor.tihs of 1'39-40.

Other factors affectirng tu-keyr prices

Although th. three fact :rs considered in the analysis account for
r,,cst of the variation in the prrice received by farmers for turK!-eys in the
years 1929-3'., other factors al:o nay be expected to ha"e somr effect on
turkey prices. S.nie -.f th1-ese -th r factors, -:.ever, do' not lend themselves
to quantitative me' surem:-nt an others nave rot been sufficiently consistent
in their effects on turkey pric-s to tive statistically significanr.t relation-
ships. It '"was found, fo: ey.rpie, th-,rt char.ges in thr product i.n of chickens
influenced turky'- pric's t? c. -nsid-rrable -t.ertent but that changes in the
production of all other :ieat -ve no effect, on trk-y:' prices (i.e. the
partial correlation for th-se- tr.o factor w-s zero.) !:verth.less, it is
reasonable to expect that cian'es in su-pli--s of oth,.r .-ie.its ctaally do
affect turkey prices. Sice turK:y mict is now aval-.bie at retail counters
the year round it is sp:.cirilly likel- th-.t c.r.nsurmers consider the prices
of various kinds of me-t -.hten dc:cidi.-wg .'-ich meat to buy. Fe'rhoos the
reason that no relationship botwenr. tur:cr-y prices s -nd prcduct'on of other
meats was indico-tad is t!--t the Sl.u-;.t-:r of n.'t animias gc.-rir-lly has been
increasing at the sam: time that tur':.,y :rr-.duction h'.s been increasir.ng. Thus,
the effect on turk y prices .-.f a m-aj,.r reduction nr. su:ppliics -f other meats has
not been measurLd for a period vhon t.irK.ey ne-it output ,.s ne-r the present
level. As :norti dlta beco.:-e availarl.:-, s'o re.'.aticnship betiven turkey prices
end production of ,.ll rm.e-its r:.'v become apparent.

Several developments whichc h hva: accomp-ani.a the mr-rKed expansion in P
turkey production are th;. incrs. in consemptiorn *:f turkey men-t in the
spring and summer (n rff-se-.sDn) -.nd th.: introduct ion -,f new methods for
retailing rnd f.-r serving turka. ,,-.t. The- first of thase can be r.e,.sured
roughly b-y the net out-.:.f-stor.%e rovAr-rnt of turkey in the period February 1
to October 1 or 1ovo.r-.bcr 1. This ;.':r, for exar pl.:, there was a. net out-of-
storage moverient of 513 illi-n pounds cf turkey from Feb!uary 1 to October 1
cocrpared with 20 million pounds in- 1939 -'nd .? million pounds in 1929 for the
correspcndina periods. T.he use of these d-ata ".s --. measure of turkey meat
consumption in the su-nner t ime is of doub'tful accuracy, however, because
summer marketing -f live turkeys, cld breeder hens, etc. are not included
and these marketing vary c:nsiderahbl fr"." year tr year. These considera-
tions explain why the effects :n turkey :prices o-.f -ff-season consumption of
turkey meat cannot be isolated ant specifically determined. Nevertheless
this off-season consumption is .a imp--.rtant demand factor and probably will
become increasingly important t- the turkey industry.

New methods for retailing and for serving turkey meat, which have been
developed recently, obviously cannot be measured quantitatively and there-
fcre no attempt has been made to statistically relate them to turkey prices.






PES-66 16 -

Although such meth.-ds are somewhat related to the c.:nsumption r.f turkeys
in the -,ff-seas-,n, they are of importan-e in themselves and will become
increasingly" imp-rtant if turkey pr-.,dcticn continues tc expand.

W'it.h theo increase in annual supplies of turkey and the resulting in-
crease ini off-seas&-n consumption, it, naturally has become necessar- t-: store
considerable quantities cf tur,-ey for use -i the spring and summer. The
storage margin (the financial outcc.,i frco st:.rinr the pr.o'uct) varies con-
siderably from. year to. year for several farm, products ana the size :f the
margin frequently affects the demand for st.:ring that or..duct in the- follow-
in g seascr.. If it is necessar.T in, the future t: store quantitiEs Df turkeys
as large as cr Larger than the quantity stored in t.he 1939-40 season the
storage margin f:r turk-,'-s may become; hagIptant in affectLng turkey prices
in the following turkey--marketing seas-n.

H. C. FRELSEL






PES-t6


Outlook for 1940 turkey marketing ..............

Factors affecting the averice price received by
farmers for turkeys in the United States .....

Poultry and e-g :utl,:ck f-r 1941 ................

Chick Hatcher: Survey, 1937-32 ..................

Forecast of number of layers r.n f-qrms in
January 1941 .................................

A comparison if four feed-egg ratios ............

Changes in reLhod of reporting egg production rind
number of layers .............................

Estimated storage margin on sneli ez7s -er dozen,
average 1916-35 and 1925-34, annual 1?93>0...

1916-37 ......................................

Change in official index of seasonal var-ition
of farm egg prices ...........................

Feed-egg ratio defined ..........................

Effects of the World War 2nd possible effects of
the present war ..............................

Long-time factors in the chicken and egg outlook

Long-time factors in the turkey outlook .........

Production of poultry feed grains and November
feed-ega ratio ...............................


Fags




13-16



11-13


-13

10-13


Issue

This issue


September, 1940

August 1940


July

May


1940

1940


April 2, 1940


11-12

9


9

10-11


4-7

13-14

20-22


Na rch

February


F bru ar

December


[Jovembe r

November

Novrr.be r


2, 1940

1, 1938


1940

1939


, 1939

, 1939

, 1939


September 1, '1939


17 -


INDEX GF SPECIAL SUBJECTS DISCUSSED IN THE
POULTR'.Y AliD EGG SITUATION




UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
I I I Ii ll IIIlllIll lllIIIIIIIIIII
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