Poultry and egg situation

THE


-SIT NATION

BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

PES-42 4 JUNE 3. 1940


IN THIS ISSUE: CHANGES IN FARM INCOME
FROM CHICKENS AND EGGS, BY R.J. FOOTE


CHICKENS: SALES. PRICE. AND CASH INCOME. UNITED STATES. 1909-39
IN[EE I NUMBER, R 1910 10 14 1001
PERCENTh far income


1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935


1940


U S DEPARTMENT OF AGFICuLTuRE


lEG 3B519 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECOnOMICS


EGGS: SALES. PRICE. AND CASH INCOME. UNITED STATES. 1909-39
INDEX NUMBERS 1910 14-100 I1


1940


REG 35821 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


U S DEPARTMENT or AGRICULTURE











THE POULTRY AND EGG SITUATION AT A GLANCE

EGGS I I PERCENT I I I-
IDOZENS) ICHICAGO FEED- NONAGRICULTURAL INCO
8 N F'I C RATIO I ( lsA.-o-ilnnl I


7



6



5



4
CASES
THOUSANDS

500


400


300


200


100


0
CASES
I MILLIONS J

5


4


3


2


1


JAN. APR JULY OCT.
A M.S. DATA. EXCEPT NONAGRICULTURAL INCOME

U S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


POUNDS
(MILLIONS)


110


90


70


50


30
CENTS
PER
DOZEN




25




20




15


I I I I -
JAN. APR. JULY OCT.
*INDEX NUMBBRS.ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION

NERE S3SI BUREAUOF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE I


i I I
STORAGE STOCKS OF SHELL
EGGS AT 26 MARKETS

- 1939..






PES-42


THE P O ULTR Y A D EG G S ITUATI 0 II


Present indications point to a v..lDuae of storeze holdings of ezgs

on August 1 (the time of the usual annual peak) a.proximatelv the same as

on August 1, 193. In April egg production was slightly larger than a

year earlier for the second consecutive month. Total egg r.roduction during

the months January through Aoril of this year was about one-half of one

percent less than in the corresponding months of 1939. The into-storage

movement for shell and frozen eggs increased more than seasonally during

recent weeks, with the result that storag.c holdings are nor only slightly

smaller than a year earlier.

The average rice received by f?.rmers for e4gs remained about the

same from mid-April to mid-May. More recently, however, wholesale egg

prices have declined slightly with the genz.rrl decline in farm product

prices, and Federal Surplus Commodities Corporation purchases have been

increased substantially. Any increase in the *:-.ort demand for eggs result-

ing from the war in Europa is not expected to have a significant effect on

domestic egg prices.

The price received by farmers for chickeLs increased contraseasonally

between April 15 and May 15 and is likely to continue to ripe relative to

prices a year earlier, largely on account of the- smaller hatch this year than

in 1939.

The out-of-storage movement of dressed poultry at the 26 markets has

passed the seasonal peak for the year but the volume moving out of storage

is continuing slightly heavier than a year earlier. Storage stocks of poultry

in the United States on May 1 were 22 percent la.rg,-r than a year earlier.

Stocks of turkeys were 145 percent larger, but total storage holdings of


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PEs-42


poultry other than turkeys were smaller than on May 1, 1939. Marketings

of poultry (fresh and frozen) are now increasing about seasonally.

Although the war situation and crop prospects will be imp-ortant

factors affecting feed-grain prices in the immediate future, the feed-egg

ratio may continue to be less favorable than a year earlier for the- next

several months.

FEED-EGG RATIO

The feed-e'gg ratio based on Chicago prices has become somewhat more
favorable to producers during recent weeks, but the number of eggs required
to buy 100 pounds of feed at that market remains well above the number re-
quired a year earlier and considerably above the 1929-38 average for cor-
responding weeks. The slight decline in the ratio is largely attributable
to the drop in grain prices, since wholesale egg prices have declined only
slightly. Although the war situation and crop prospects will be important
factors affecting feed-grain prices during the immediate future, the feed-
egg ratio may continue less favorable than a year earlier for the next
several months.

Feed-egg ratio at Chicago

(Dozens of eggs required to buy 100 pounds of poultry ration)


Year :Feb. :
: 24:
: Doz.


Ap
20
Doz.


Week ending as of 1940
ril : May : June :Aug. :Nov.
: 27 : 4 : 11 : 18 : 25 : 1 : 8 : 15 : 31 : 30
Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz.


Average :
1929-38 :5.78 6.71 6.68 6.64 6.5g 6.64 6.80 6.92 6.76 6.66 5.98 4.0

1938 ; 6.92 6.10 5.85 5.73 5.78 5.61 5.41 5.44 5.57 5.73 4.26 3-5
1939 : 6.21 6.69 6.65 6.84 6.99 7.14 7.21 7.45 7.14 6.90 6.13 5.6
1940 : 6.23 8.28 8.21 8.05 8.11 7.79 7.92


HATCHINGS

The number of baby chicks sold by commercial hatcheries during April
continued somewhat smaller than in 1939. However, the decline from a year
earlier is becoming less marked as the hatching season progresses in the
more important egg-producing areas of the country. It is probable, also,
that the demand for baby chicks in the broiler-producing areas will be im-
proved with the slightly more favorable feed-broiler price relationship.
Thus the reduction in the 1940 hatch from that of 1939 is likely to be
within the 2-7 percent range indicated in former issues of this report.


1

6
8


:*


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PS-4 2


POULTRY SITUATIOir

Pou] try mXarketilgs

Receipts of drcescd poultry (fresh and fr.ren) at the four principal
markets probably have passed tle ~pasona. lnw for the y;ar. Receipts each
week during the next several morth2 will terd to exceed those of the pre-
ceding week, but weekly receipts during the remainder of 1c40 are Oe.-.r.cte-i
to average smaller than thoe6 of a y- ar earlier as a result of the smaller
hatch this year. 1Reccints at the four principal markets during the 4 weeks
ended May 25 were slightly larger than in the. correspondIng period, of 1939
and 32 percent ab:.ve the 1929-7' averpaeO for tlose weeks.
Receipt- of drescsd T.,oultr:, at fAir mr'kets
(Uew York, Chicago, Philadel rhia, io'ston)

: _e _____ e endir s .f '00 _
Year :_A'p_- r Ma_ : June : J'-l'un
S20 : 27 : 2 : 11 : 18 : 25 : 1 : 27
: 1,000 1,0' 1, 00o 1,C' 1,ODI 1,000 1,00 -. 1,00. 1,000
o uds: pounds 2pouRnd pounds po-Luds 1 oun l -ounds E2:onds z pounds
Average :
1929-38 : 3,452 3,79Y 4,160 4,092 4,211 4,350 4,429 4,714 4,625

1938 2,536 3,117 ,4g h,412c h,145 5,341 4,-,s9 5,174 5,405
199 : 1.759 3,64o 4,GES ,,672 5,600 C ,749 5,b6S 6,8. 6,9LS
1940 : 4,169 4,623 4,s44 5,184 1,417 I,b72


Poultr, storage

Stocks of frozen poultry in the United StIates rn Hay 1 7erc 22 per-
cent larger than a year earlier r and 145 percent larger thanm the 1929-38
average for that dote. Stocks of turkeys on May 1 'rre 145 percent larger
than a year earlier, while. stoc.:s of fowl nejre only 13 percent larger.
Stocks of all other poultry were 27 percent smaller than on tht s'on-- date
in 1939. During May the wcekl'y ut-.,f-stor,?e movement q.t the 2' markets
declined about seasonally but th. actual volume c.f poultry moved out each
week was larger than in the samv '. weeks of 1939 '

Storage stocks of fro-en poultry at 26 mnrklets
: We nieel:g :Le t 1' f 14

Year Storag : Out-of-storae movement, Ms : stocksge
stocks : Ma stocks
: April 27: 14 : 11 : 18 : 25 : .ay 25_
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
pounds pounds pounds ounds pounds o2pounds
Average
1929-38 : 47,531 2,700 2,341 2,047 2,108 38,335

1939 : 53,0o4 3,204 1,731 863 234 47,572
1940 : 68,799 4,722 2,c40 2,0514 326 58,757









Chicken prices

The price receivl7 by farmTers for chickens increased cor.traseasonally
during the prst month I'ut the F;;- 15 price of1' .6 cents was still 0.3 cents
below a ear ,.: .rlir a 2'.1 cents below thc 1929-38 average. The price re-
ceivea by faramer-s for chickens is :xoect.Ad to continue to increase relative
to prices receivedd a yeas earlier !rely s. ? r:-siult oc the smaller hatch
this yp er th;l.n last.

Price pr pound receeivr.d by farmers for chickens

S :Jn. : Fb.: r '.: Apr.: '~. :Jue July: Aug.:Sept.: Oct.: Nov.: Dec.
Y- : 15 : 1 : -E : "_ : i : .5 : i. : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15


:C:rts C.ts Ca t. t::t C, nts C
Avere' c- .
1929-38: 14.8 15.0 15.; 15.9 15.7


19.8 : 1C.7
1919 : 14.3
19-S0 : 1I.3


16.0
1-.2
-I' r. ?


15.9
14.
12.3


1 .4
12.9


16.1
13.9
1.T..S


:nts Cents rents Cents Cents Cents Cents

15.5 1.5.1 14.9 15.2 14.6 14.1 "13.6

13.7 1.1.0 14.2 14.7 13.6 13.6 13.6
l1.4 13.7 15.0 13,.6 12.7 12.4 11.7


EGG SITUATIONS

Number of l,-vrs cn f'-r's

T'h r. zt.-r o" h-rs Tid rull ts ,:rn -Lrrls dc:ce.-sd somewhn;ht less than
seascnrll'v fr!' cr c ; ril; :.K-- r !rc nte xc- s in numnoers ovn-.r the same
months lest v: r insrc fr r "r. -ret in Irh o n ly 4.5 percent in
April. Th i ec-lir In ..- nr-b .r 1 "". _r. "r-,rs nort,-bly. .1i l continue
until Auustut, :"h-r t-:- rF *- :1 ow for th. y0i ar is u.-iully rcachnd.

iu_:be of l ',--- on firms, Unit-d St tes

b : : : : 4
Year J .' i. F% .. I[ r.* Apr.. P .U- r J ir, Jul .A .. Sept.. Oct.. Nov.. Dec.
: ;.Ti.- iil- .il- i"- :" ", 7- 7 : 11- :"i !...i-""Il- Fii- i0 1- idil-
::i ms lions liis i.:s li3 .. li lon: ',s 1 on s li on. li' ons lions lions
Average- -
1929-38: ::.5 32? .-S 3,':4 2-7 270 'C 2.5 2_5'. 280 303 325


-3 7 2" 2 27,

." 7 SIP8 .?.


276 2- "2 ,


2- ?'4 263 29.3 314
2 12 5.5 279 L05 326,


Er production


Estimated total.:gg production for April was
year earlier. The slightly smaller rate of lay per
by the 4-1/2 percent increase in the number of hens
same month in 1939.


slightly larger than a
bird was more then offset
on farms compared vith thej


1938
1939
1940


-C7

.'" 2


PES-42


- 6 -







Egg production during the months January through April of this ycar was
about one-half of 1 percent less than in the corresponding months of 1939. Pro-
duction during the next few months probably will not differ materially from
that of a year earlier, but total production during the last half of this year
is expected to be less than in the same months of 1939.

Totel farm production of eggs, United States


Year Jan.. Feb.. Mar.. Apr.. AIay .June .July :Aug. .Sept.. Oct.. Nov.. Dec.
M: il. mil. ?il. Mfil. MilI. Mil. iil. Itil. Mil. M Mi. Mil.
:cases cases cases cases cases c".ses cases cases cases cases ccise s cases
Average:
1929-38: 5.9 7.9 12.5 14.1 13.3 10.6 9.0 7.7 6.4 5.2 4.0 4.4

1938 : 6.7 8.3 12.5 13.5 12.6 10.3 8.9 7.6 6.4 5.6 4.8 5.5
1939 : 7.2 8.5 12.4 13.8 1.3.0 10.6 9.1 7.8 6.5 5.7 5.1 6.1
1940 : 6.7 8.2 12.7 14..0


Average number of eggs produced per layer, United States


Year Jan.. Feb.. Mar.. Apr.. May June. July: Aug.:Sept., Oct.. Nov.. Dec.
o. No. No. Ho. Ho. No. o. Io. o. o. o. Io.. o. o. o. No.
Average.- -
1929-38: 6.3 8.6 14.2 16.6 16.7 14.2 12.7 11.1 8.9 6.7 4.8 5.0

1938 : 7.9 9.9 15.4 17.5 17.3 14.9 13.6 11.8 9.4 7.5 5.9 6.4
1939 : 8.0 9.7 14.5 17.0 17.0 14.6 13.2 11.7 9.3 7.4 6.0 6.8
1940 : 7.2 9.0 14., 16.5


Egg marketing

Receipts of eggs at the four principal markets probably have passed the
seasonal peak for the yn,,r and will tend to declined gradually until November.
During the past several weeks, receipts of eggs .t these markets have been some-
what heavier than a. year earlier (s-ee chc.rt on inside cover page). Changes in
receipts during coming months will depend largely upon changes in the volume
of production.

Receipts of cggs -)t four markets
(New York, Chicago, Philadelphis, Boston)

: Week ending as of 19-0'.0
Year : April _: __May : June : July
: 20 : 27 : 4 : 11 : 18 : 25 : 1 : 8 27
1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
cases cases cases cse cases ca cases cases cases
Average :
1929-38 : 485.1 500.5 488.9 486.0 496.8 466.0 412.4 .403.6 231.5

1938 : 381.7 422.9- 444.5 411.9 426.8 424.9 374.8 369.3 215.4
1939 : 473.5 501.6 498.7 521.1 521.5 474.9 404.2 401.2 220.6
1940 : 518.6 538.0 508.7 520.3 539.2 523.1


PES-42


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PES-42


- LI -


Egg storage

Cold storage stocks of shell and frozen eggs in the United States on
May 1 were about 5 percent smaller than on I'ay 1, 1939. During the past few
weeks, however, the into-storage movement at the Lwenty-six markets has in-
creased more than se.asonally so that holdings at these markets are now about
the same as those of a year earlier. Since egg production in the next 2 months
is expected to be about zoqual to or slightly Ir.rg-r than a year earlier, storage
stocks of eggs on August 1 (the time of the usual annual peak) may be approxi-
mately the samn., as stocks on August 1, 1939.

Storage stocks of eggs at twenty-six markets


'Week ending as of 1940
/ Storage : Into-storage movement, May : Storage
Year stocks : : : : : stocks
April 27: 4 11 : 2 2: : Way 25
: 1 ,0( 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
Shell cases c csases cacses c:ses cases


Average I
1929-3 8 : 2', 25 498 470


444

425-
4.39


128
20-1


413

369
360


4,350

3,760
3,752


127 1,834
133 1,709


Egg prices

The price rec:iv.-d by fhnn-mrs for .gg, usually changes very little be-
tween April mrd ?I':ay. This year vm-s no exception. The price on May 15 was 15.1
cents compared with 15.0 cents a month earlier, 15.2 cents a year earlier, and
the 1929-1938 mid-Marty ve-rage of 16.8 cents.

The .xp';ct-d smaller supplies of eggs and the probable higher level of
consumer incomes during thc last h.lf of 1940 compared with the some period in
1939 will tend to brinz about higher egg prices rel-tive to last year during
coning months. Any increase in the export demand for eggs resulting from the
war :abro-d is not expected to have a significant effect on domestic egg prices.

Price per dozen received by farmers for eggs

. .. : J' .: FP.b.: -Mar.: Apr.: Ti.y : June: Jul:y: Aul. .:S: pt.: Oct.: Nov.: Dec.
- Year : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15
Cenntc rents Cen's Cents Cents Cents Cents CentF Cents Cents Cents Cents
Average: r e
1929-38: 24.2 20.3 17.3 16.8 16.8 16.8 18.1 19.9 23.2 26.2 30.1 28.8


15.9 17.6
15.5 15.2
15.0 15.1


18.2 19.9 21.0 24.9 27.1 29.0 27.9
14.9 16.5 17.5 20.6 22.9 25.8 20.5


S1939
1940

Frozen
1939
1940


2,103 3
1,933


1,356
1,0.4


429
491


91
135


1938
1939
1940


: 21.6
: 18.8
: 18.3


16.4
16.7
20.2


16.2
16.0
15.4






PES-42


DC',3STIC D -AIJD

indu s'-rial production turned sLi .ht.l" uploward in Kay after register-
ing cnly mrinor f"1.ituat.ions -ind-e the end of March. The moderate decline
in consumer ir.corr.e which h 'ollov,:-d the sha.-rp '-cntr.?ct-ion in productive ac-
tivity during the- fir;t .q.rter of ].0'c p"ob-hl:- is about over. Although
ample inrvento'is cf idu i rtril -:'. in the hands of processors and dis-
tributors pr:baby wil pre : re'o-:er', the prospects are for
some increase in inusti il "-luctio- J- ill ctlher factors which lead to
an increase in t1,.; ,c.rniestic cc-ns.rii-imer dlemarJ i'r fanri products.

IrJnde:. ni ,-b' o.f nr-.a 'icultzural incorie

(192--29 = 1i0, a-ijustced fcr ,s.asonal variation)

Year Jau,. Feb. :Mar. Apr. May :'ne.- :jul:.- :Au. Sept. 'ct. Nov. Dec.
Average
1929-3S : 85.2 5.1 05.4 P5.0 8.? :'5.4 ..? S.." '.. .5 34.2 84.1

1938 8: 8. 88.1 7. 9 87.0 56.1 C'6.. I .2 C. .O.3 3 .0 39.8 90.3
1939 : 90.6 90.6 l.l 90.1 90. 91.7 :.;-2 93.1 93.4 95.L 96.1 96.6
19!:0 : 9.4 95.4 95.0 94.0




The United:' States nor-...lly exports less than 2 percent of its do-
mestic procdctic.n of e.CJs. it i.= unlikely that t:.i proportion hill be
chan,:.ed n.mts '-ial..' rolvong the sprea,' of the uiar in Europe.

r.in.. rece.it years Great Britain obtained from forei7rn countries
about one-third of its sply: of es' a'-.-ut t-wo-thids of which came from
countries novw occur..ied C- erra-;,. .,ppFi-.s fosrme:l'- o':taine-I fror,. these
countries ,-re uio le r : to -.. ...-:.:i,;l ::-fou th of G'reat i:it.ain' s
average .anr.ul c.. .ptic. a:'. t : .' -. -:cert .of c.ur domestic produc-
tion. The Ej li:' i)... 'of e' '-::..: k.tr r -.t er red.ic-d fc lowv -,r the
liquidation.: of t'- ir do. tic -'a .::. _oc .:lca.use of the shortage of
feed suppli.s. 'The .s of the:- ouirces of -ricish eus supplies, however,
may be made up in .-ver a wa, ot- ..r than iL- Li-ct at ica of e.m-s from the
United States.

Perhas5 ts.e c-reat;r part of t-e re,....ct ioi, D itain' s su'rlv of
egFs will be cou.ntzracted by over'enta- re_- l.ati'.ois cttingr do-0n the
rate of consumption. In cas. it CoeS become necessary for Great Britain
to increase her im.riorts of e g.-, the, Znimpire coLrt.ries pr'obabl.- will receive
preferential treatment. The p:..sibilit,- of : inc:'ease in it;rports of eggs
from the Urnited States is fu.rtIer :'r-duce,. ':brcu.s.e of Enland' s policy of
conserving Ar.orican dollar e;cni.., for the- puric!-ias of rea.tcricils more es-
sential to war requireme-,t s.

In view of the above altLrnatives, it seems- re-asonable to expect
that any increase in the export d-mand for our eg.-' will have no sijnifi-
cant effect on domestic egg prices.


-------------- ---- 4--,- -'C.,


- 9 -






PES-42


- 10 -


CHA. G-S IN FARM INCOME FROM CRICKEMS AND EGGS, 1909-3 i1/

Both cash and gross farm income from chickens and es,- increased
gradually from 1909 to '1916. From 1917 to 1920,income inc-eased very rapid-
ly and in the latter* year was more than twice as large as in 1016. Follow-
ing a sharp decline in 1921 and 1922, the combined income fr"c c,_ic'ens and
eggs increased again until 1929. In that year cash income e-:cced.-d its pre-
vious peak, reached in 1920, while gross income -was slightly b'lo-.i T.he levels
of 1919 and 1920. Income declined rapidly from 1930 to 1933 but increased
from 1934 to 1937. In the latter year income was over one and cne-half times
as large as in 1933 but only about two-thirds as large as in 1929. In 1938,
gross income from chickens and e..-'s- was estimated at 966,000,000 compared
with $1,032,000,000 in 1937. The _slif-.tly lower income was a -esult of both
lower prices and smaller sales.

The fluctuations in cash income from chickens and e- s from 1909 to
date are illustrated in the accompanying chart.

The income from egcs constitutes about' two-thirds of the' i.co.7ie front
the chicken industry. The variations in income from the two sources do not
follow exactly parallel courses. Income from eggs fell off r.,uch mere sharp-
ly between 1920 and 1921 than did-income from chickens and increaseJ some-
what more slowly from 1922 to 1929. As a result, cash incor.e from eggs in
1929 was 5 p-rcen'.. below the peak reached in 1920, whereas cash income from
chickens in 1929 was 18 percent above the previous peak in 1920.

The price of ers a-ppears- to be more sensitive than the price of
chickens to changes in supply. The number of chickens and eggs sold (see
chart on the cover page) each increased 38 :Erc'nc from 12-.K. However,
prices of chickens were 14 percent lower in 1929 than in 1920, vhile egg
prices were 31 percent lower. These same trends are Ea.arer.t hen -iroduc-
tion and prices are compared -.vit h the pre-war average.

The same price disparity continued in 1939. The number cf eg-s sold
was 45 percent larger in 1939 than in 1910-14, and the nuumbr cf chi-kens
sold was 43 percent. larger. However, egg prices were 12 pe-rce.nt. low:r than
in 1910-14, whereas chicken prides were 20 percent higher, sc that cash in-
come from eggs was 28 percent larger, ane cash income from ci.ickens was 71
percent larger in 1939 than in 1910-14.

It is difficult to determine the cause of these dii:forent rates cf
change in prices of chickens and eggs, particularly since t.e La.jcr part of
the change occurred in the period 1.920-21. A possible x- as the demand dropped from 1920 to 1921, the relative slop6Es jf the demand
curves for chickens and eggs changed so that the curve for chickens vras more
elastic in 1921, relative to the curve for eg.-, than it was in 1920. Since

1/ Reprinted from "Income from chickens and eggs, calen.var .-eu-s 1909-39,"
which is section 12 of the Farm Income part of the Income Parity for Agri-
culture series now beinr- 'reredj by the Department of Agriculture. The
corpl.te section is available or, request to the Division of Econoamic Lif or-
mation, Bureau of Agricultural Economics, WashinTton, D. C.












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PES-42 12 -

supplies were about the same in the 2 years, such a shift in the demand
curves would cause egg cricks to drop more rapid', than chicken prices. Two
factors which might have caused the diff rent rat-s of change between chicken
and egg prices during the period 1922-29 are: k!) cons',ur.er demand may have
increased faster for chiclkens than for eges, and (2) th} demand curve for
eggs may be less elastic th.xn that. for chickens. Supplies increased fairly
rapidl-i during this period and the latter would thus have caused egg prices
to decline relative to chicken prices.

The year-to-year c.an.gCs in income from chickens and eggs have been
brought about to a much gTrater extent by fluctuations in prices than by
changes in the other co.nonent of income sales. (See charts on the cover
page.) Chicken prices per hea' h?.ve reaned front. a high cf 99.9 cents in
1920 to a low of 36.4 c..ts in 1933, whJle s3les r-nLred from 489 trillion
head in 1930 to 262 ;il-lic head in 1909. Eg prices have ranged from a
high of 43.5 cents per dozn in in1920 to a Ic;: of 13.8 centz in 1933, while
sales ranged from 2.6 billion -g in 1030 to 1.5 billion egFs in 1919.
Thus, chicken prices at thz p- -:ro 2-3/.' tires as hic:h as at. the low
point, and egg prices were cvc.-i- 3 tiries as high, while sales were less than
twice as larf. T]h qu,. tity of chickWns andJ egg sold followed a fairly
regular upward trend fr-m 1919-30, '-- ile prices and income have t ended to
follow the samTe irregular t-re-d, exxcep-t for the period 1922-2~. In this pe-
riod income increased much faster t'ia.rn did prices b-cause of the rapidly in-
creasing sales. The quantity of c.hickes 5solr dclcrcas,-d from 1930 t.o 1937
but increased during 1938 ar.d 1939. Sales of eg-s declined from 1930 to
1936 but increased sharp.l1; in 1937. Eg' s-LTs d<.clined slightly again in
1938 but increased in l13.

In certain periods changes in the purchasing over of consumers and
in the level of wholesale fooc.d .r'ices have been rore b-.portant in causing
fluctuations in prices th-an, have changes in supplies of poultry and eggs.
For this reason, prices h?-ve frequently increased while sales were increas-
ing and have decreased -:hi.e ns--s :er; d-craasin-. Examples -.rill be found
in the periods 1922-25 -nd 19)0-32. This ds not mean that changes in sp-
ply do not affect prices but un.- th?t the effects of changes in supply are
frequently more than off set by o-e opposite effects of demr.and conditions.

R. J. FOOTE.