Poultry and egg situation

THE oU TSITUATION



BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

PES-40 S4 APRIL 2, 1940


:SPECIAL OUTLOOK REPORT FOR:
:TURKEYS IN THIS ISSUE.


PRICES RECEIVED BY FARMERS FOR CHICKENS AND TURKEYS. 1925-40
CENT:
PER
IE ~ ------------ ---- ------------_--------_--------
FOUND I

28 ---- Turk-".|


STORAGE HOLDINGS OF CERTAIN CLASSES OF POULTRY


1929 0i). 192 1 5 1 29 1934 192 ,19 a4-
33 37 1v3B81939 33 37 193 1939 33 3 193 j1 Is. 3 3 1939 1940(
SEPTEMBER I NOVEMBER 1 JANuARY I MARCH I
1.*Et ANO6--o.


IN THE PAST 5 YEARS PRICES RECEIVED BY FARMERS FOR TURKEYS HAVE
RANGED FROM I TO 4 CENTS HIGHER THAN PRICES RECEIVED FOR CHICKENS;
IN THE YEARS 1925-29 THE GENERAL RANGE WAS FROM 5 TO 10 CENTS HIGHER.
THE LOWER PRICES OF TURKEYS COMPARED WITH CHICKENS IN RECENT YEARS
HAS BEEN DUE CHIEFLY TO THE INCREASED PRODUCTION OF TURKEYS.

THE QUANTITY OF TURKEYS HELD IN STORAGE AFTER JANUARY I HAS BEEN
INCREASING IN RECENT YEARS. OF THE TOTAL STORAGE HOLDINGS ON MARCH I
OF THIS YEAR, TURKEYS CONSTITUTED AN UNUSUALLY LARGE PROPORTION,RE-
FLECTING THE 25 PERCENT INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF TURKEYS RAISED DUR-
ING 1939 AS COMPARED WITH 1938. THE LARGER THAN USUAL INCREASE IN
STOCKS OF TURKEYS FROM JANUARY I TO MARCH I OF THIS YEAR REFLECTS
LARGER THAN AVERAGE MARKETING OF TURKEYS SINCE JANUARY I.









THE POULTRY AND EGG SITUATION AT A GLANCE
EGGS -- I I PERCENT I I
(DOZENS) CHICAGO FEED-EGG RATIO ^NONAGRICULTURAL INCOME*
I| A | I -| (1924-29=100)
AI I I I.


7



6



5



4


CASES
(THOUSANDS)

5


4


3


2





0
NUMBER
(MILLIONS)

325


300


275


250


225


JAN. APR. JULY OCT.
* INDEX NUMBERS. ADJUSTED POR SEASONAL VARIATION


U S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


JAN. APR. JULY OCT.
A PRELIMINARY


NEG. 38158 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE I


S 1940


1939. 9



Average
11929-38


CENTS
PER
DOZEN


I I I
1940 LAYERS ON HAND


-I
Average
1929-38





1939





PES-40


THE POULTRY AND E G, SITUATION


Summary

Total egg production in the first half of Ic4rn mnay be slightly larger

than in the first half of 1979, but the effect of this larger production on

the supply of eggs for curreiLt cons .irption in the spring months may be partly

offset by a relatively stronger demand for eggs for other purposes. Total

egg marketing may be heavier in the first half of l'q40 than in the same

neriod of last year, since the number of hens and pulletT on farms is some-

what greater than a year earlier and average production per lay,-er is approach-

ing the level of corresponding months in recent years. The effect on prices

of any incre-ase in mairketings during the next few months will be -it least

partly offset by th. .effect of the higher level r.f cnnsurecr income compared

with a year earlier.

The cost of poultry feed, based on Chicago rriccs, decreased slightly

during recent weeks. Put the effect of this slight decline uuon the number

of eggs required to by IC00 pounds of r.oultry f-e:d was cnsiderTbl: nore than

offset by the rather sharn decline in wholesale egg prices. The feed-egg

ratio is cxrect;d to co-ntinuc relatively uriLf-vorEble during the next few

months and any clan.. thrr,?aftr will deornd a gr.--t d:al upon the prospects

for the 1 '40 harvest of fe.-.d grains.

Tho into-etorr g'? movement for c'-s gives tnoe pr-oearance of having

progressed somewhat ic-s than seasonally, when all,-,owance is made for Federal

Surplus Commodities Corporation purchases.

Receipts of dressed poultry (fresh end storage) at the 4 principal

markets are continuing above a year earlier. Storage stocks of frozen

poultry are decreasing about seasonally but remain well above the levels






?PEs4c


for corresponding dates of other years. The larger stocks of turkeys in.

storage are the major cause for the unusually 'large stocks of" stcrags- tpoltr

this year. (See charts on outside cover page.)

The decrease in the price received by farmers for eggs from the rela-

tively high mid-Fsebraary price of 20.2 cents to 15.4 cents in mid-Varch was

more than seasonal. The average price received by farmers for chickens in-

creased from 12,2 cents on February 15 to 12.8 cents on March 15 but on the

latter date it was still 1.5 cents belrw a year earlier.

The level of consumer income is declining following the downturn in

industrial activity. But the domestic consumer demand for farm products is

not expected to change much unless the decline in industrial activity is mcre

pronounced than now pTpe-,rs probable.

Preliminary indications point to a decrease in the 1940 production of

baby chicks compared with a year earlier, but intentions reports indicate the

possibility of a slightly larger turkey poult production than in 1939.

.FEEZ-E,- RATIO

The cost of poultry feed, based on Chicago prices, decreased slightly
during recent weeks. But the effect that this slight decline may have had
in reducing the Chicago feed-egg ratio was considerably more than offset by
the substantial decrease in --. prices. For the week ended March 9 it re-
quired 7.56 dozen eggs to buy 100 pounds of poultry ration at Chicago com-
pared with the low for this year of 5.18 dozen for the week ended February 10.
The ratio is expected to continue .relatively.unfavorable to producers during
the next few months. By about the middle of the year, however, r.rospects for
the 1940 harvest of feed grains will become an important factor affecting
feed prices.

Production and supplies of feed grains in 1940 will be a little
smaller than in 1939, if the growing season is about average and feed-grain
acr.i.ge-s are aboout as indicated on March 1. Thn prospective plantings rero:'t
of March 1 indicated a 4-million-acre reduction in corn acreage, slightly
larger acreages of oats and barley, and a 1-million-acre increase in grain
sorghums. Although the total supply of corn and other feed grains for loh1 -1i
may be only slightly smaller than the 1939-40 supply, the quantity of z.-:n
under Government loan will be considerably larger than a year earlier. The
total supply of unsealed corn therefore_ will be aterially smsialer than in
1939-4o.






PES-14,


Feed-egz ratio at Chicaeo

(Dozens of egz-s required to buy 10, po'i,,ds of poultry ration)


Wee ________ __ding ai of 140 __
Year : Fe-bruar: : WMatclh : April : Jne : Se t. :Dec.
: 17 : 2' 2 : 1 : 1 : : 7 : : ::. : : 20 : 2
:Lo:. Lo. Do: c: Do:. : L: : :. r D z. io D D':z.
Average
1929-38 5.78 5.-7 6.16 6.26 6.37 65- 6.P 6b71 6.s:' 6.71 6.75 5.43 4.74

"93gS :b.79' :."2 6..1 b.' 6.. ,7 TO 6.5:7 6 1r. -.r h4.1i 4.1
1939 :6.':,7 b.T, 6.19: 6.,5 b.2. 6. 6,.7,? 6. 6.69 6.71 b., -.
194O :5.9- 3 b. 6. T 7., 7.57 7.51


HATCH I' TI S

Accord in to ha:tchiry reports, T, recent t fevv'-r chick- ,ere hatched
during Fc braary this .yiar th:,an i the same month in i1?, and the nuriber rf
eggs set w'a.s 15, percent less than in Fe.bruary a -,.-ar earlier. A special mid-
March sure. inic.--ted that 7 rercernt fewer eLgs -ere .--t. during th.: first
15 days of March than in the same period a y.car sarli, r. It appears that as
the hatching season rrres-': the decline fr.-.m a ;,-rr earlierr is b..coming
less marked. On the b-.si: of p;.Ft rmdlat irnshirs bt t-",en the. lIovember-March
fead-e-g ratio and harchin.. th fnll-.i.ng spring, .a decr-. ce f 2-7 r,~rcent
is indicated in the size of the- to.ta l 1'- hatch comrn,.rd with that of '193-.

FOULTRY STTi 'I TI.',i

Foultry. mar!-:etinFs

IMarke tings of dr:-sed poultry .:,t the 4 principal markets arc continu-
irng in larger -'olum e than a y,-ar earlier. Rr--ceirts at thm-se markets for the
4 wefci-s ended March 27, ,.-.re ,r.e '. t abo-.- a y ar earlier and .2 r.:rcent
above the i'Q29-3~ o''e-ras- for tho.e weeks. At t hi time .-,f ;,ear these figures
are loss significant than at other timnrs as i. n--aure- of marketinris of freshly
dressed .ol.tr.y, bcaue f a com.,:rat i-. :,- lar-e irnter-marlket movement of
storage poultry. R:c i.:-ii:s m,.': have b,.-ren incr --1-i1 som.--.,.hat durinc- the
middle of March in proei:irtion for th-- E.,-stLr holity demand H. 'ev, r, mar-
ketings of freshly droescd r:oultry are e-xt.ected to continue heavi-r than a
Year earlier during the irr-mdiate future b,-cause of the larger number of
hens an.nd bullets on farms and the likelihood that th.- feed-egg ratio will con-
tinie unfavorable. Tl-h- smaller hatch this season comiolared with a ye,:ar earlier
may b, gin to- b:? reflected in emrllt.r rec, i-,ts of freshly dressed Moultry
during the summer. The general feed situat ion after this y-r's harvest
Iegins will help to determine the intensity with which flocks are culled,
but resc-snt indications ure th.t arcetin,-s 7fJring" the last half of 1940
w.i 1 -.v c,.ru..rhat .sn,7 i-, t niri a ye ar earlier.





- 6 -


Receipts of dressed poultry at 4 markets
(New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, Boston)


S_ kTr eniiinz as o0- 134-
Year : Feb. : Mar.
: 17 : 24 *_2 1 : 16 2: 32
: 1,000 1,000 1,:C'- 1,C0,0 1,000 1,000
: Pounds -ooun.i pounds pounds pounds pounds
Average :
1929-33 : 4,5,41 4,077 4,c51 3,7s6 3,63 3,339


1939

1940


3,1 91
3'. -
-, lb3


S, i .

I. 13


4,Cy5
0,D C J


,,243
.,52


2,613
3.937
5,747


2,5413
4,308
-,73


30 :
1,000
pounds


3,596


Apr. :
6 :
1,000
-pounds


May
25
1 ,OOQ
pounds


-,552- 4,350


3,552 2,747
3, 68 3,730


Poultry storage

During the past seve-ral -eeks the out-of-storage movement for frozen
poultry at 2', market- has been grea-er than a year earlier. But this nove-
ment has norT L.-2n uffici:-e-t to educece storsae stocks to the levels of recent
years. Storag.c holdings of ooultry at the 2o major stori.g cities on March
23 were 27 :cEn-z aLo-vre yer .*:rlier and 39 prc-'nt above- the- 1929-38 aver-
age. -Th.e -._rcer!ntag: reduction in stor.-: stocks at 26 markets since January
1 is about thr sae sas for th r sE.- period ?. year --Arlir. But the actual
volume movCd out is about mrilli-on p-,oonis greater this .y:ar than last.

ToGtal Ur-itcd Sta-'-es stocks of fL-ozen poiulty7 on March 1 w-.re 25 percent
above a y'er :-arlir:r an"d :u- 7 r ;:'cc.nt -tove th' lO-y-:.ar -'.r r:ge for that
date. Th l-i-rgr stor-. s?'-- s for M.2.rch 1 of thi: y-ar -ir- largely a result
of the 17.7 pe-'c-:,t inc: -:.s in -"-cks of turk..ys --Ip.. --... with i y-,-ar earlier.
(See chart on. th.- cov- .:- p:-c.) The incra in th-e --uantity of fcwl in stor-
age was t-rxi' el,- offset b'.- the decrease in stoc::s cf all othe-r poultry,
as comp-.r:'. ...ith IMarch 1, 1939.

Stora-c, stocks of frozen poultry at 26. marets


Y e-r




Av,:rag :

1923- :

194 :


Sto age :
stocks :
rFb. 244:
1,000o
7o un ds


1, 000
-oC:, o 1


1 C
1.C :'G
rcun is


94,3Z7 Z,7S5 3,67


117,S6c4


S,681
6,0 3C


-, %1


: 1' : 23
1,Cf";'C lOOCi
pounds 0oLl-. s3


4,201

h,16
6 ,030


4 ,321

4, S13


Chicken prices

The heavier than averse marketing of poultry and the above normal
storage stocks of frozen poultry continue to be factors causing lower prices


JES-4o


5,341
5,749


: 30
1,000 JC,
-)ou-uds

4, 352

4,520


:Storage
: stocks
: Mar. 30
1,000
pounds

63,859

70,224


I


:*






PES-4 7 -

to be rnceivea by fumners for chf.ckens, cc ,.red with a year earlier and the
lO-year average.

The sqe.ronal increase i.1rce b.xmar" li in the prieE.s received by farr-
ers for chick'.n. I.rs bec b: ort..-,r. r-, 'it tie. itd-!iarch nriy. of 12.5 cents
per round a 1,5 :-3 bl tlow a r_- e.rlic o,.l 2.5 c-nt.s below the '929-3S
averngo for tfe t fan pri. St.110 ipt} l.->3 thp &c'o-tor&, ccwpared rith a
year earlier, mary r:-auze .uppli 3Z .*i-.v.h. cO csc. :eh .ztve:-rs. pric.- r-ceived.
by farm--rs d'uirin the. l-st tal-.f of the l'ar -- be scm-,.': high.- r in relt.ion
to a y'ar earlier tvrn d n.ng tfi' p-.s se-- r months. on.en, szch on of-
fect rny be "fl3et r cnh't by n3.. h:avier r-arketir.s ot fol.

Price prr -ounl- r-~eivd by f 'ers for chickens


Tear : T. ? ct. !IA:Apr. :.{- .J-nf JuL:- .Aug. Se-pt. Oct.. Nov,. Dec.
__ : 5 : 5 5 5 15 5 15 15 1: :. 1 5 15 15 15
: Ct. Ct. Ct. C. CL. C0., Cc. Ct. C. Ct. Ct. Ct.
Av'or.ge :
1929-38 : i4.c 15.0 15.3 15.9 1 .7 15.5 15.1 1l.9 15.2 14.6 14.1 13.b

193S : f. 1.o0 15.3 16-.2 i'6.- 15.7 15.0 14.2 14.7 13.6 13.6 13.6
1939 : lo 1i:.2 -:.3 lQ'.4 1.9 13.1 13.7 13.0 13.6 12.7 12.4 11.7
1940 : .12, 1.2 12.v


COIGcES IN IC'; OD COF RPC--T-G:;- 17 i .T792 C LAYWtS A- D FGG PFROLUCTION

B-:zinnir nith it. S I'orh 19.0 rhcort., -ntitl.-d "Foultr ard .gg Produe-
tion," the Ag-'icltnal IM-?. i- Scr-ice -11' -p.'clish th -:r. cr.e run-oer of
Ipyers for tn : month on finrs in the Unitedi Stat -, pr-)duction ncr 100 layers
(or per la'-cr) p:r month, ..zi the- total mz.ber of e -s l'.id j-r rnonth on fanms.
The fis-r- .- presrted, each nonth are prlini7.., onL suabj-;ct to revision in
the followir.Lrg r'onth rndi t.-.: f'll'.'in. "7ni. Fr-vi'u.cly the fcllowirg inform -
tion was published: La-crz p..-r fr-'n flock, -.rs per 100C l;rers, and ejgs per
flock all. r-.ferring to Iic fir t '.i: of the .-.'nth. A f.urn flock .s taken as
a flock containing "50 birds or Lc. The rLn fig-ares zo30 include data on
flocks having more than 400 bird-.,

The three- nr:o7 eries will be published c-'rrntly in Tnh Pnul'ry ond
Egg Siutun.icn in pla7.ce f the da. rrg ..rdirg "th-e .lumb--r nf l:-y.-rs per flock"
and "c-g s laid. per 100 1y-crs" prcvirusly ci-v-n. The l:ater-r two series are
still being n'blizh'd, h'.7evor, and nr" be ob'tinred by s-enaing a rcquast to
Market : Infc rmati-n Section, Aricultural Ma.rketinr Srvi-:ia, Washington,
D. C.

3."G SITUrUTION

3tnb.:r of 1Tvcrs on farnms

The aTerage nu-mbcr of lz-yrs on farms i-n the United States during Jan-
uary vas 332 million birds, or about 3 percent 1or? thon yor.r carlier. The
decreasca in namnbers from Janua.ry to FebruaLry was slightly greater than seasonal,




- -


1bt the average nvzb.:r renaining on fa3ms during the latter month continue&
at about 3 percent above a year erlieir. The rate of decline in numbers duTl-
inrg the ne-:t few month3 will ar-er.i upor the relative rri-es for eg_-, and.
Spoultr coip_'ed. ri':h 'he coat )f feel, The r:.uber of birds on farr- is ex-
pected .o co ~1inur tove a-er.ie M- .'-ove a ,ear *.rlier at le .st -iLing
the next fe,: rmc.nt.s.

Thu.n.br of lovers on far's, U.iitd. States

Ye..r J .- ..r. _a.:". '-" 'i ---. .nt. Oct. Uov. Dec.
LL" -. Y
7 :11-- MU..- M.l- 2 '.* L.iln L :.x- X:l-. i -I .1- l-
:1 .t. l-: lir lio.-s sicrs iors 'ions lio':s 0 .ionA lions lions lions
Aver-ce :
1929-3 : 335 323 313 7C4 257 270 256 2:0 259 250 303 325

1938 : 07 7.01 252 273 262 2 5o 236 234 245 269 293 314
1939 : 322 16 06 292 276 26C 246 242 253 279 305 326
1940 332 327


=g& production

Thei. nunlcar of c--'s lai-i r 1CC layers and per flock or. January 1 of
this ycs:"- Tras the hi-h.-st on r,, :or" for th-it date. E.t th:. widespread cold
weather ce-icsed the r/-- .a rroc-u zion- n-r lay:r for thc nonth to be less than
in th'e zs.O month cf 1. or I'-0 Itho-uh somewhat above the a-eragc rate of
1od'uction for j.r-.rucc .. T'" clR, w--:.thr continued into Fbz.rry but subsided
soon cnourh to permit t1:e '-v.r-.-; rL-.c of production during F-br.ary to re-
cover sojn.--ht. The cffoc-c. of lov.-r xr.-crae r.tc of I. on tott.l pro-
duction -as pna'rtly offs,:t ;,- b he larger nu.Lnbr of hnr.s e.id urllts on fans,
ut tot-.l ,-roiuction du.rin; FbrTrar.ry nas b-:lo- th.'.t of 1)38 -id 1939, as
shown in tih.- z-.c.nd of the two follor:in,- t?.bles. 3Bcca.se of tho slightly
larger nu-c'rr of layers, total e production in thu first half of 1940 nay
be slightly gr..atr thz. a ryar .-arlicr.

kA'crrze number of eg-s ra.r)ducrd pzr layer, Uiitd. States


Year Ja:. *Feb. .... r.. I'ay 7 J,"e July *Az;. Smet. Oct. Nov.. Dec.
: J. No. !o. No. o. ITc.. No. ,o. :ic. Nc.. No. No.
Average:
1929-38: b.3 9.6 14.2 16.6 15.7 14.2 12.7 11.1 5.9 6.7 4.8 5.0

1935 : 7.9 9.9 13.4 17.5 17.3 14.5 13.6 11-. 9.4 7.5 5.9 6.4
1939 : 5.0 9.7 14.5 17.0 17.0 I4.6 13.2 11.7 9.3 7.4 6.0 6.8
1940 : 7.2 9.0


.-PES-LC






PES-40 a -

Total faz-m production of egts, U ited. States

Year 3Jan. 'Fe'b. Ar. Aor. : Iy June: J1 A'g. Sent. Oct 1No. Dec.-
I ivi.. uil. il. M1.-il. I.Tl. v.lY. i:l. Mi!. Mil. TJ.il. Ml. Mil.
leases cases caqes cares ca eas caeas crse6 ceses caose' cases cases Cases
Average:
1929-3S: 5.9 7,9 12.5 14.1 13.3 10.6 3.0 7.7 6.14 >.2 4.0 4.4

1933 : 6.7 S.3 '2.5 13. 5 1-.5 10.3 8.9 7.6 6.4 5.6 4.S 5.5
1939 s 7.2 8.5 12,4 .13.3 13.0 10.6 9.1 7.8 6.5 5.7 5.1 -.1
1940 : 6.7 g.2


Sg;market i ngs

Receipts of eggs at the four principal markets indicate th-.t the volume
of eggs market d during Mrrch was larger tb--- a year earlier. Total receipts
for the 14 re.cks ended March 23 were 13 p-rc-n2t ato'c a yea-r carrier and 7 per-
cent abov- tle 1.C-ycar av> rage for tha'-t period. Hov.evr, the quantit- market-
-od during th: 1-.st 2 weoo-s of that period ar about equal to a-.'crag.e receipts
for thp'se wek-.s. "h s suggests that -. larfe part of the volume during the 2
we.ks ended ,ierch 9 maZ' have consistedoi of ma 'ketines. that had becn delayed
because of the cold weather. The :-ff?ct of the ltusr _-po duction, compared
with a year earlier, on the -voluma of narkctings luring the next f(-w months
may be offset somewhat by an increasc.L draoni for rg-q foir dcl.,-ed hatchings
and by a slightly stronger lemr.-nd for cg.-z fer bre-king.

Receipts of negs :t I4 mnrk't s
(i17ow Yor-k, Ghicazo, Philad.elpliia-, Bor.ton)

TocJk .-ndinga s 0 ?. _I____"_
Year : Peb. : HIr-. : Apr, : May
_____ 17 : : 4 : 1- : : 30 : 6 : L 5
:3 ,O'0 1.006 1 ,000 ,C ..G 1,000 1,00O 1,0CD 1,000 1,COO
C: cnt 3 ca.ses cases caseS c'.ses c-.see caP:es c7,ss cIases
Average a
1929-*3 : 209.8 233.S 207.3 317.5 364.2 403.6 4. 4 475.7 466.0

193S : 200.2 239.2 281.S 297.4 320.9 412.1 14h9.5 456.9 424.9
1939 : 22.S 247.S 2614.4 5.7 330.3 213.g 4y7.0 4o0.4 474.9
1940 : 193.9 252.2 349.9 341.9 342.1 43&.9




United States stocks of shell .-.ggs wero larger on March 1 thnn on
F .bruaTr 1, indicating that the into-storage movenont bc,-gn during Febru.nry.
.The svp'It in uinrketings durinr7 early sLarch resulted in an into-storagc move-
ment soimeThat- greater than a-rT.r.c, as mea-sured "b data as of the 26 markets.








But with a relative reduction in r?.rketings during core recent reeks the into-
storage nov-nent has settled. do.m to about a normal volume. Data on the move-
ments into storage include purcsv'.ses by the Federal Surplus Conmodities Corpo-
ration which ha-te be'n comparati'.:el; heavy during recent weeks. The ouanti-
ties purchaseaf b.- this agency should not be considered rith coanercial stocks,
ho'.Te-er, as uich purchases are largely distributed for relief purposes,

Th: ou-t-of-stora- nmoTement for frozen eggs was substantially heavier
this :-ear thxn a ;.-ar ec.rlier but the rate d:creastd during recent v.eeks.
For thec 7e-oi: *-nred l rch 23 theor-3 s L.n into-storare rovcncnt. In 1939 the
irto-storeaO novoEcnt for frozen eggs uegan during the -3eek ended 'March 4.

Storapse stocks of evis at 26 c-ar':ets

S-.:ek r..-n.. as of lq4
: Store : Stove nt,, : Stornge
: stocks : : stocks
: Fb. 24 : 2 : o 16 : 23 : 30 : liar. 30
: 1,000 1,CCO 1,000 1,0D 1,000 1,0C0O 1,000
Shell c cases cOLes cases cZECS case s C?_E: caGes

A7 er, re :
19.29-3: 105 14 t 76 137 190 257 789

1339 : 100 293 6S t 85 1 l9 e 215 646
1940 : 20 t 41 f102 I% '' I l

Fro z n :

1939 : 758 1 4 33 54 .- 92 942
19540 : 74 9 33 21 3 27




Comp-ared with the relatively snall Tcbbruary v-oliie, na.rket receipts
of ers during 'L.arch were considorablJy arger. This incr?-sc, along with the
declining level of consumer incoaea, causcd a drop in c-5, prices. The average
price received by f-rmers cn Unrch 15 wa-ls 15.4 cents cc'uro ed with 20.2 cents
a nonth carlior ax-d 16.0 cents a :year earlier. The decline from February to
March wm-s :oro- than season7_l, bur this was to be exnpeted in view of the un-
usuIll-y hiji 7cbnVwzy 15 prices relative to the general level of the past
s,-veral months. The effects or prices of tho lar-er orodu-ction this season
compared with a y:rar earlier m.y be offset soncwhat by the dearmnd fcr eggs
by hatcheries cttin;. a ?to start, by outlets other than those for fresh
ewc consumption, and by a higher le-cl of consumer inccne compared with a year
earlier. These offscttir. factors nc-y be sufficient to ccuse the prices re-
ceived by farmers du&arinr the recai-icr of 19040 to be screwhat hicher relative
to a year earlier tha-n duringg the p-.st several months.


PES-4O


- 10 -





PE3-40


- 11 -


Price per xozen re- i.ce:'. b;. .:.rm,-:.s for eggs


Year Jan.; Feb. Mar.. Apr.. :ay Junr. July, Aur. Sent.. Oct.: Nov.: Dec.
e 15 : ]5 5 15 5 2:5 15 1" 5 1 15 : 15 15 : 15 15 '
:Cents C nt s Cents Cents Cents r aEis rents "eit Cents Cents Cents Cents
Average:
1929-3S: 24.2 20.3 17.3 16'. 16.3 lb.8 18.1 19.9 23.2 26.2 30.1 28.8

1932 : 21.6 16.4 16.2 15.9 17.6 12.2 19.9 21.0 2',.9 27.1 29.0 27.9
1939 : 18.8 16.7 16. 15.5 15.2 14.9 16.5 17.5 20.6 22.9 25.8 20.5
1940 : 1.3 20.2 15.4



DOI..ES'1 IC DEl,:'I-D

Industrial production, w'i',:;ch i'n .January receded about 7 percent freoi the
all-tine pea'- reached in December, v'as accut 9 percent lower in February' than
in January a.d apparently sme fuv'.-thr slackening in operat'.ons tcok place in
March. Any .acditioral decline that ma n occil: is e::recte, t- b moderate as
comparec.d viti that of the first quarter. A rev'-rsal of L.ie do'rr~'ward r-ovement
probably vil.L occur this cprin, but there are as -yet no siens pointing tc a
rapid reccery- th-reafter.

The s-.arp c-:rtract.ion i-n industrial act vivt;,- earl in Li 102 halted the
upward trend in co .snuier:" irncor.3, acci c tint to data for J-nuiiary and Fb.br-ary,
and a moderate d-ec--ine in iLcome i in prcspc-ct until in,,iusrial activity ar-ain
piks up. However, unles-- t:.e fall in- Li' trial prcu,.tion reaches uner-pected
proportions., the s -po:.t. to co-sumer ic-mcire resunltinz frcr. the preceding period
of business nimprc.v-ren.t ;'ill prevert r.-' .!-ed diminuti-n '-n domestic consumer
demand for fana pr- -.icts in th: n2xt few r.,.nths.

i:dc:-: .,ri'bers of nona -ric,,lturn., ir.comt

(1e2L-2? = 100, ad,; ,td for s-esasral variation)
Year Jan. Feb. I a rr : June: July AuP. sept.. Oct. : 'lov. Dec.

Average:
1929-3-: F5.2 85.1 85.4 8.0 S4.3 85.4 34.7 48.7 84.5 84.2 C4.1

1938 : 88.9 08.1 87.9 37.0 36.1 86.1 86.2 38.0 88.3 89.0 89.8 90.3
1939 :90., 0P.3 91.1 90.1 90.5 91..7 91.8 93.1 93.1 95.4 96.1 96.6
194 0 96.,4 95.4

1/ Preliminary.

The Special Outlook Report for Turkeys, which was released on Marbh 18,
1940, follows in full:








SPECIAL, OUTI 'O01: T.E?-'T FOR TUPi- YS

Surmary

Producers intend to raise between 4 and 5 percent more turkeys in 1940
than in 1939 according to reports made by them to the Department rf Agriculture
in a recent survey. If these intentions for a still larger croc than in 1939 arc
carried out and if the present storage operations prove to be -unprofitable, thus
causing a weaker storage demand this coming season, the market cutlo k for the
fall of 1940 will be much less favorable than in the fall of 1" x. .mother fac-
tor which may tend to reduce the returns from raishL- turkeys in 19?4 is that
feed costs will be higher during at least the first half of 1940 t.an in the
first half of 1939. Domestic demand for farm products prICably will nrt be
gr--aly different in the fall of 1940 than in the fall of 1939. Supplies cf et.h-
er meats will be lir7 r than in 1939.

The number of t':rk: .ys raised in 1939 was almost 33 million birds, whicL
was 25 percent more than were raised in 1930 and 18 percent mor.e than -,he pre-
vious record crop of 1936. In spite of the large increase in Frreduction, prices
received by farmers for turkeys on November 15, 1939, were onl:; 1.1 cents per
pound below those of a year earlier, and on December 15 were o.ily 2.C cents Dolo;:
prices on December 15, 193-. iU.reover, feed prices were relatively lov during
most of the turkey growing season, so that many producers found ic 3q a profitable
year for raising turkeys.

Storage stocks of turkeys from the crop of 1939 increase d r-uch micre over
the preceding year, on a p?"ce:nt--e basis, than did total prcd'..ction. Tur.:evs in
cold storage on March 1, 1940 totaled 63,756,000 pounds compar,--' v it!. 26,957',COO
pounds a year earlier. This was an increase of 137 percent. lf r.!- tot-,l stocks
of turkeys now in cold storage, appro::.mately 65 percent rtpre-c.'t.s turkeys
weighing 16 pounds or over. These sizes are too large for genril f s-il.y con-
sumption and must be sold largely to the hotel and restaurant trade. On the basis
of present wholesale prices, it is doubtful whether storage operaterr will be
able to sell their tu-keys at any more than the into-storage price. If, as indi-
cated, storage operators experience difficulties in profitably .._vinj; their stcr-
age holdings, it is likely that they will be less villin. to sto.- tu:.':eys next
fall.

Producers' intentions for 1940

A proposed increase in turkey pro-uction this year, of betwe. .n 4 and 5 per-
cent above last year's record large crop, is s b.w.. by intention reports of Febru-
ary 1 from 4,550 representative producers to the Agricultural Marketing Service.
These producers reported their intention to u.u:- 1 percent fewer ncults fron com-
mercial hatcheries than last year, but this would be considerably more than off-
.et by their intention to hatch 9 percent more poults at home. At the same. time
they reported an increase in the number of turkey hens on hand of 7 percent over
a year earlier.

The trend of turkey breeders in recent years has been toward a. broad-
breasted meat-type bird, and, if this trend is continued, turkh:rs raised in 1940
are apt to average heavier in weight than in previous yI-.?rs.


FE3-40


- 12 -








PES-40 13 -

Sa.ppi,' 1f h'tchiin. eggs

The' srie .at. smaller intended increase in numbers of poults, than in the
number cf tu'rk'- hens on hand is consistent with the less active dri-'d and lower
prices for tur'::..- eggs thus far this season. The total :pplyr of turkey eggs
laid during; t.h-:- h-tcliir.- season, if fully utilized, is ordinarily more t han suf-
ficient for an-- desired increase in turkeys. This year the possible su-pply- of
hatching je-.. is greater than last year, duo to the favorable/fall weather for
maturing br--.deas and the 7 percent more tu.}-:.: hens saved.

Th; d-ma-.d for hatching eggs in January and February of this year was not
as iargfe as had been expected last fall, and some sellin:- of hens that had origi-
nall;,- bh:- r'.sr':-d for breeders has been reported in certain States. A surplus
of riaatcl.inz was'reported during the cold weather in January, and a decline
in tKe ass:in- price of hatching eggs took place. In the eastern turkey section
it is re:.rt.. tiiat egg p.iductlor has started a little earlier than in 1939, but
to dat.-- rn: :-.cessive hatching egg supplies have been reported there.

T'he ?su_.i. hatchery returns for Fe'-lr-ir- show about as many tlu.::, eggs ds
as last year \i:- tne hatcheries reporting. This is in line with the Ftbr.ar- 1 in.
tent.ions re por't :.hiowing an intended decrease of 1 percent in poults to be obtaL-i'e.
from hatoheri,-- s,

Cost cf r r:dl:t 'I,

Aver. 7.:z.'ts of production have declined during the past decade with the
rraduaL ad.:ti.n, by an increasing proportion of turkey growers, of trproved
rmthrods cf rr.a-i-?r.,ent, by selection of superior meat types of birds, and b.- bet-
ter if' din- :.racT ices. WJhether the price received by producers can be further
reduced ti. .:::.:.s still be grovm at a c-':l.fit is a problem for the individuals
Proner to d':' e.

Per cap:ita pr..:d.Jct.io

Th'-: t r.-:-. cf per capital production during the past 11 y,-ars has been as


.'.i -id r ar i -:



"2 -- 2.. 219 .- _L.

F,.ed price:

I"ed prI es will pra..-.abl.' contin ie hih- r than a P.'-ar earl ier, at least
until July. After ti.t darTe, Fpr.-picts fo.r 140,D feed rain .-r..rC.: will become in,-
portant in infl,-en.cing 6 prices of fe6d .:rains. Unl.5ess eid su.plie.s are unusually
ab.u-iandt., the fei-tu.rkey ratio is iJL&lr,' to be less frvora-.i.e to pri'ucers in
the fall of 1040 thsrn in ith fail of itiher .9 or 19P..





S.PES-40 14 -

Storage stocks

Tu.-:s in cold storage on LIarch 1 totaled 63,756,000 pounds ttmparedwtih
26,958,000 pounds a year earlier and a 5-year (1935-39) March 1 average cf
26,271,000 pounds. The net reduction o f stocks during February from the all-time
peak of 65,467,000 pounds of February 1 was only 1,711,000 pounds. This compares
with a February reduction last year, when stocks were around 60 percent smaller,
of 1,306,000 pounds, and a 5-year (1935-39) average for February of nb,'it 2 mil-.
lion pounds. The relatively small net reduction this year is probably the result
of unusually heavy marketing of fresh killed turkeys, since market .-in report an
unusually free movement of turkeys during February.

It is estimated that approximately 6, percent, or 41,414,000 pounds, of th,
total stocks of turkeys now in cold storage represents turkeys weighing 16 pounds
or over. The balance of 22,342,000 pounds is made up of turkeys -ijhiLng lees
than 16 pounds. This compares with stocks last year made up of 15,636,000 pounds
weighing-16 pounds and over, and 11,322,000 pounds weighing less than 16 pounds.
The ratio of heavy sizes to light sizes last year was around 1L to 1. this year
it is almost 2 to 1.

Supplies of other meats

Meat supplies in 1940 probably will average 7 or 8 percent larger than in
1939, but the increase will be relatively greater in the first half of Lhe year
than in the last half. Supplies of poultry other than t r': ,- n-y be about tne
same as a year earlier during the first half of 1940 but r:.r be somewhat smaller
during the last half.

Domestic demand

Industrial production declined during January and February, and scme fur-
ther slackening of operations probably is taking place in March. Any acc'itional
decline which may occur is expected to be moderate as compared with that of the
first quarter. A reversal of the downward movement probably will occur ti.is
spring, but no sharp upswing is in prospect. However, it is expected th.'t ccnsumi
er buying power and the domestic demand for farm products will remain for some
time well above the corresponding months of 1939.





PES-40


Subject

Special outloo-: report for tur':eys ..........

Changes in method of renorting egg pr 'duc-
tinn and num-ber of lIyers ................

Forecast of 1940 hatchiirs and chicks and
young chicks oin farms, Jine 1, 19,.0 ......

Estimated stc-ra:ge riargin on shell eggs per
dozen, average 1916-35 ani-d 1925-34, annual
1935 -3 ..................................

1916-37 ..................................

Change in official index of seasonal varia-
tion of farm asg prices ..................

Feed-egg ratio defined ......................

nonagricultural income ir.dex r:-vi-Ed, b~g
months, ).929-3F) ..........................

Effects cf the .,o'ld Var and possible effects
of the pi'e scrt war ...... .................

LDng-time factors in the, chick-:,n and ag:
outlook ..................................

Long-time factors in ths turkey otItlr.ok .....

Production of poultry feed -rains and], vem-
ber feed- g- ratio ......................


Pa=-es

12-14


Issue

This issue


7 This issue-


5-6 Larcl 2, 1940


11-12




?

10-11


March 2,

Febru ary,


February

Decemb r


1940

1, l933


1940

1939


11-12 Dec.imber 4, 1'?39


I-7 ovcmb-r 10, 1939


1i-14

20-22


[icvcr:ber
I ovembier
I'ovc-mbcr


10, 1939

10, 1939


4-5 September 1, 1939


15 -


ThDEX OF SFEr'AL, SJEJ.CPS DTECI SSED II. TiE
PCULTRi AnD E'>" SITrUATILUN





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