Poultry and egg situation

,l LIP. o -,


UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
WASHINGTON

PES-33 SEPTEMBER I, 1939

e----------------------------------------------------
THE P 0 ULTR Y AND EG G SITUATI 0 N




FEED-EGG RATIO AT CHICAGO. 1925 TO DATE


DOZENS

4

3

2



WEEKLY
10-YEAR AVY.

-1 -

-2

-3
1925

IL PARTMEIIRT OF MEICULTUMIE


133 1935 1937
NEG 31471 BUREAU CF AGEICULTLlRAL ECONOMIC5


HENS AND PULLETS PER FARM FLOCK ON JANUARY 1. 1928-39
NUMBER
PER FLOCK


86




82




78

1928 1
U. L DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


930 1932 1934


1936 1938 1940
NEG 35478 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS








THE POULTRY AND EGG SITUATION AT A GLANCE

CASES I I I I PERCENTi I I
(MILLIONS I r l U I| R 1 1 r- I Wflh a"llADI n*IIITII AI IlIJIP %


12



9



6



3



0
NUMBER


50



40



30



20



NUMBER



40




30




20




10


CENTS
PER
POUND

18




16



14




12
CENTS
PER
DOZEN

30



25


JAN. APR. JULY OCT
*INDEX NUMBERS. ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION

U S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


N. APR. JULY OCT.
A ON IST DAY OF MONTH

NE.351BB0 SUNEAU OPAGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE I






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THE POULTRY Y AND E G SI TU AT I 0 N


Sumnary

Larger supplies of poultry and eggs than last year continue to feature

the poultry and egg situation, according to the Bureau of Agricultural Econom-

ics.

Market receipts of dressed poultry in August were 9 percent above last

year. Receipts during the remainder of 1939 and early 1940 will probably con-

tinue larger than in the corresponding weeks of the 1938-39 marketing season -

because of the larger laying flocks to be culled, the increased number of

young chickens on hand, and the large increase: in turkey production. United

States storage stocks of poultry, now rclosc to the low point for the year,

were 24 percent larger on August 1 than last year. Because of the expected

larger marketing of poultry this fall, it is likely that storage stocks by

January 1, 1940 will also exceed those of a year earlier.

The number of eggs in cold storage on August 1 is an important factor

affecting fall and early winter rgg prices. Combined holdings of shell and

frozen eggs on August 1 this year w,.re 8 percent above last year but 9 per-

cent below the 1923-37 uverogc. Egg production during the fall of 1939 will

probably continue. about the sam. or slightly larger than last year.

The ratio between feed prices and egg prices in August continued

slightly more favorable to egg producers than the 1928-37 average but less fa-

vorable than in the same period last year. On the basis of the August 1 Crop

Report, it appears that relative feed costs may continue less favorable than

last year but more favorable than the 10-year average. The effect on winter

egg production of larger hatchings this year than last and larger numbers of






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hens now on farms may be partly offset by increased marketing of hens and

pullets between now and the end of the year, as a result of the less favor-

able relationship between f,;ed and egg prices. Laying 'locks on January 1,

1940, threpfor., -Lay be only 3 few percent larger than this year.

CL..-. r. ind crtC prices rce-cived by farmers arc following their usual

seasonal ..-, -gs. Egg price.s increased 1 ccnt per dozen between July 15 and

August 15 u.il- chicken prices declined 0.7 cents per pound. However, prices

continue well below 1--st year nnd .Irr thi. lowest for August 15 since 1934.

The effect on prices of lrgcr supplies is being partly offset by increased

consumer incomes.

Feed situation

The feed situation in August, as indicated by the Chicago feed-egg ra-
tio, continued slightly more favorable to egg producers than the 1928-37 aver-
age but less favorable than in the same period last year. During August the
ratio avcragecd 7 percent below the 10-year average but 27 percent abovu 1958
levels. The feed-egg ratio usually becomes more favorable from August through
November because of increasing egg pric -s and declining feed costs.

Feed-egg ratio -at Chicago
(Dozens of eggs required to buy 7.00 pounds of poultry ration)
Wnek ending as of 1939
Year :Feb.: May : July: July: Aug.: Aug.: Aug.: Aug.: Sept.:Sept. :Sept. :Nov.
: 25 : 27 : 22 : 29 : 5 : 12 : 19 : 26 : 2 : 9 : 16 : 25
:Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Dz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz.
Average :
1928-37:6.01 7.04 6.94 6.75 6.65 6.76 6.53 6.26 6.06 5.94 5.81 4.04

1938 :6.92 5.41 5.40 5.12 4.98 4.78 4.87 4.57 4.26 4.04 4.16 3.48
1939 :6.21 7.21 6.05 5.76 5.85 6.05 6.15 6.33



The total supply of corn this year, including the prospective large Oc-
tober 1 carry-over, is expected to exceed the 1938 supply, but the quantity of
free corn (not held under Governmcnt loans) available this year may be some-
what smaller than last. The indicated i'heat crop this year is 21 percent be-
low that of last year. Assuming an incrLasc of about 7 percent in the number
of all grain-consuminC animal units during 1939, the 1939-40 supply of all
feed grains per animal will be .bout 3 percent below the 1933-39 supply but 4
percent above the 1923-3.2 average. Actual f(c:d costs may be about the same or
slightly less during the coiaing ye,,nr :.- compared with 1938-39.


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Production, for recent years, of the various grains making up the av-
erage poultry ration is given in the following tablr. From these production
figures, an index of poultry feed supplies, relative to 1923-37, has been con-
structed, using the same weighting system that is used in making the feed-egg
ratio. In the right-hand column of this table is shown the feed-pgg ratio
for November in the corresponding years relative to its 1928-37 average.
Note that larger feed supplies, as in 1928, do not always bring about a favor-
able feed situation as compared witn egg prices. (A low feed-egg ratio indi-
cates a favorable situation.)

Production of poultry fer-d grains and November feed-egg ratio

Production :
: : : : : Index Feed-ege
: numbers,: ratio,
Year Corn :o Bts : : feed :percentage
S: : : grains :of average
: : : : (1928-37: 1923-37
_: : : : : = 100):
: Million million Million Million
: bushels bushels bushels bushels Percent Porcent
Average
1928-37. : 2,310 753 1,049 233 100 100

1988 : 2,666 914 1,313 326 116 104
1929 2,521 823 1,113 200 109 91
1930 2,030 886 1,275 300 94 99
1931 : 2,576 942 1,124 199 112 75
1932 : 2,931 757 1,251 298 125 45
1933 2,400 552 733 154 100 101
1934 : 1,461 526 542 117 63 138
1935 2,304 626 1,195 206 99 105
1936 1,507 627 786 147 67 137
1937 : 2,651 876 1,162 220 115 106
1938 2,542 931 1,054 252 110 85
1939 _/ : 2,460 731 898 257 105

I/ August 1 estimate.

Poultry marketing

During August, receipts of dressed poultry at the 4 principal markets
were 9 percent larger then in the corresponding weeks of 1938 and 15 percent
above the 1928-37 average. Receipts during the remainder of 1939 and early
1940 will probably continue lprgnr than in the corrLsponding weeks of the
1938-39 market/peasor because of the larger number of lens and young chickens
on hand and the large incrUasc in turkey production.


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Receipts of dressed poultry at 4 markets, (New York, Chicago,
Philadelphia, Boston), average 1928-38, annual 1938-39

_: Week ending as of 1939
Year : JulZ r Aug. : Sept. g Oct.
: 22F : 29_ g 5 a 12 : 19 a 26 : 2 : 9 : 28
:1,000 1,000 1,000. 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
:pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds
Average :
1928-37 i 4,787 4,627 4,707 4,798 5,130 5,153 5,437 5,332 7,479

1938 .....: 4,506 5,405 5,656 5,989 4,567 4,684 5,005 5,382 8,817
1939 ....: 5,942 6,948 5,872 5,690 5,60s 5,624


Poultry storage

As measured at the 26 major storing cities, a slight net out-of-storage
movement of frozen poultry has continued during August. Last year a slight
net into-storage movement occurred in this month. By early October the net
into-storage season will probably be well underway.

The quantity of poultry in storage on August 26 was 14 percent above
last year and 30 percent above the 10-year average. It was only 3 percent
below the record high stocks on that date in 1937. With marketing of poultry
this fall expected to run above those of 1938, it is likely that storage
stocks by January 1, 1940 will also exceed those of a year earlier.

Storage holdings of dressed poultry at 26 market,
average 1928-37, annual 1937-39

Year --- Week ending as of 1939
_: Jan. __ : uly29 : Aug. 26
: 1,000 pounds 1.000 pounds 1.000 pounds
Average
1928-37 .........: 96,854 33,914 34,215

1937 ..............3 142,418 51,132 45,867
1938 .............. 93,601 37,097 39,070
1939 .............. 1004,313 46,492 44,576


Chicken prices

Prices received by farmers for chickens declined 0.7 cents per pound
between July 15 and August 15. Prices usually decline from April to December..,
Since April 15 prices have declined 1.4 cents this year as compared with a
decline of 2 cents last year and 0.7 cents on the average during 1928-37. On
August 15, prices were over 1 cent be'ow last year and almost 3 cents below ;
10-year average. Prices were the lowest for the month since 1934. The effect


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on prices of larger market supplies of poultry during the remainder of the
year and of larger supplies of meats competing with poultry will be partly
offset by larger consumer incomes.

Price per pound received by farmers for chickens,
average 1928-37, annual 1937-39

i Jan. i Apr. : May t Juno a Jul.: : Aug. : Sept.: Oct.: Nov.
Year : 15s 15 _: 1__L 15 15 j _15 : 15 a 15 : 15
: Cents Gents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
Average :
1929-37 ..: 15.1 16.4 16.3 16.1 15.5 15.7 16.o 15.4 14.9

1937 ....... 13.4 15.2 l4.s 14.S 15.3 16.8 17.4 17.6 16.9
1938 ....... 16.7 16.2 16.1 15.7 15.0 14.2 14.3 13.6 13.6
1939 ..... 14.o 14.4 13.9 13.4 13.7 13.0


Domestic demand

The improvement in conditions affecting the domestic demand for farm
products which began in May has continued through August, but no business boom
of large proportions is in sight. Conditions in the more important industries
which affect industrial production and consumers' incomes point to probable
continuation of relatively stable domestic demand conditions during the re-
mainder of 1939, at least, with only moderate variations in industrial produc-
tion and consumers' incomes. However, it is likely that by fall consumers'
income will exceed the 1938 peak.

Index numbers of nonagricultural income, average 1928-37, annual 1937-39

(1924-29 = 100, adjusted for seasonal variation)

Year Feb. : Apr. May June ; July I Aug. : Sapt.' Oct.: Dec.
Average a
1928-37 .. 9 7.0 86.3 86.5 s6.4 s8.6 86.6 g6.4 86.2 87.3

1937 ...... 93.7 95.7 96.8 96.8 97.9 95.2 96.9 96.4 98.4
1938 ......: 90.0 89.6 37.5 87.3 87.6 89.0 90.1 90.5 95.0
1939 ...... 92.2 90.4 91.1 92.9 1/93.0

1/ Preliminary.


Laying flock size

The average size of farm laying flocks declined seasonally from
January 1 to August 1 at about the 19O3-37 average rate of 25 percent. The
low point in numLers is usually reached by September. On August 1, laying
flocks were 3 percent larger than in 1938.


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The chart on the cover page shows the size of farm flocks on January
1 from 1928 to late. The flock size on January 1 is an important indication
of eg.; production during the following 6 .moths. The 2.6 percent increase
in the number of young chickens on hand July 1 and the larger number of hone
now on farms will tend to increase the 3ize of flocks on January 1, 1940.
However, the possibly less favorable feed-egg ratio this fall than last may
tend to offset, at least partly, this indicated increase by increasing poul-
try mark-tings between now and the end of the year. Consequently laying
flocks naxt year may be only a few percent larger than they were on January
1 this year and will probably continue below the 192d-37 average size.

Average number of laying hmas per fa rm flock on the
first day of the month

Year Jan. : June July : Aug. : Sept. : Oct. Nov. : Dec.
:Number Number Nunber Number Number Number Number Number
Average
1928-37 ..: S6.0 70.9 66.g 64.2 63.5 63.6 73.8 79-8

1937 ....... 84.2 6S.5 63.6 62.1 59.9 64.3 69.3 74.4
1938 .......: 77.6 65.0 61.6 59.3 59.8 65.0 72.5 78.0
1939 .......: 82.8 68.5 64.3 61.3


Egg production

The average number of eggs laid per 100 hens continues high. Although
the rate of lay on August 1 this year was. not quite equal to the rate in the
past year and was the sane as in 1937, it exceeded the August 1 figure for
any other of the 15 years of record and was 9 percent above the 1928-37 Au-
gust 1 average.

Total egg production per farm flock on August 1 was slightly above
last year and 3 percent above the 10-year average for that date. Production
during the fall of 1939 will probably continue about the same or slightly
larger than last year.

Eggs laid per 100 hens and bullets of laying age in farm
flocks on the first day of the month

Y- r. Mar. Jue Jy 4 Aug. Sept. : Oct. Nov. Dec.
:Number lumber Number Number Number l-mber Number Number
Average
1928-37 ..: 37.7 50.1 42.8 37.1 32.7 25.5 18.1 15.2

1937 .......: 39.2 52.5 44.4 40o.4 36.1 23.8 21.1 18.6
1938 .......: 42.2 52.9 46.5 41.2 35.3 2E.2 22.3 19,9
1939 .......: 41.h 52.4 45.9 4o.4


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Ign marketing

Receipts of eggs at the 4 principal markets are still declining
from the seasonal peak reached in May. During August receipts were 9 per-
cent above receipts a year ago but 6 percent below the 1928-37 average for
these weeks.

Receipts of eggs at 4 markets

(New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, Boston)
: Week ending a.s of 1939
Year : July : July : Aug. : Aug. : Aug. : Aug. :Sept. :Sept. : Oct.
: 22 : 29 : 5 : 12 : 19 : 26 : 2 : 9 : 28
:1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,0C00 1,000
:cases cases cases cases cases cases cases. .cases cases
Average :
1929-37 : 262.8 236.9 220.3 210.2 211.4 202.6 -201.6 18i.S 136.6

1938 .....: 216.8 215.4 190.6 189.o 176.3 16S.9 158.4 144.S .123.1
1939 .....: 245.5 220.6 204.2 205.6 198.3 183.6


Egg storage

The number of eggs in cold. storag- on August 1 is an important
factor affecting fall and early winter egg prices. Combined holdings of
shell and frozen eggs on August 1 this year were 8 percent above last year
but 9 percent below the 1928-37 average.

Because of the increase in the proportion of eggs stored in frozen
form, a comparison of shell eggs in storage in any year with some previous
10-year period is misleading as an indication of relative total supplies
of eggs in cold storage. For example, shell eg;s in storage on Augaust 1
of this year were 21 percent below the 192S-37 average w':ereas stocks of
shell and frozen eggs combined were only 9 percent below the 10-yoar aver-
age. This year frozen eggs trade up 37 percent of the total cggs in storage
on August 1.


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111111111111111
3 1262 089039605
1C -

Storage holdings of eggs, United States, August 1


": : Percentage of
Year Holdings Percentage of
: : 1928-37 average
: 1,000 cases P3rcent
Shell eggs
Average 1928-37 .......: 8,906
1938 ................: 6,411 72.0
1939 1 ............... : 7,017 78.8
Frozen eggs :
Average 1928-37 .......: 3.232
1338 ..................: 3,67 119.6
1939 i/ ...............: 4,086 126.4
Total
Average 1928-37 .......: 12.138
1938 ..................: 10,278 .84.7
1939 I/ ...............: 11,103 91.5
I/ Subject to revision.

Ek prices

Prices received by farmers for eggs increased 1 cent per dozen be-
tween July 15 and August 15. This is slightly less than last year and about
1 cent loss than the 192S-37 average increase. Egg prices on August 15 were
3-1/2 cents below last year and over 3 cents below the 1928-37 average for
that date. Prices this year were the lowest for the month since 1934. The
price effects of larger storage stocks of eggs this year than last will be
partly offset by larger consumer incomes.

Price per dozen received by farmers for eggs

Year : Jan. : Mar. : May : June : July : Aug. :Sept. : Oct. : Nov.
: 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 ; 15 : 15
:Cents Cents Cants Cents Cents Cents Cents jents Cents
Average :
1928-37 : 25.9 18.0 17.5 17.4 18.7 20.6 23.9 27.0 31.1

1937 .....: 23.1 19.9 17.9 17.6 19.4 20.4 22.9 25.2 28.0
1938 .....: 21.6 16.2 17.6 18.2 19.9 21.0 24.9 27.1 29.0
1939 ..... 18.6 16.0 15.2 14.9 16.5 17.5