Poultry and egg situation

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
WASHINGTON


PES-28 APRIL 1,1939.



TH E P 0 U LTR Y A N D E G G S I T U A T I O N


NUMBER OF HENS AND PULLETS AND EGG
PRODUCTION PER FARM FLOCK. 1925-39
NUMBER PER
FARM FLOCK

NUMBER OF HENS AND
PULLETS. MARCH 1





85 ---- --- ---- --- ------*








75
7 5 ----------------------



EGGS PER
FARM FLOCK

EGG PRODUCTION.
MARCH 1-JUNE I





160 ------- ----- --- ----

150


140


1925 1927 1929 1931 1933 1935 1937 1939


0 i DI ETMENf Of MAICULTUEI


eO ISMs IUP4Ua Ofr as0 CULTUnAL [COsiCS


THE CHANCE IN THE PRODUCTION OF EGGS PER FARM FLOCK
FROM MARCH I THROUGH JUNE I IS AN INDICATION OF THE CHANGE
IN THE TOTAL EGG PRODUCTION DURING THESE SPRING MONTHS.
THE DOTTED LINES INDICATE THAT, ON THE BASIS OF PAST
EXPERIENCE, THE 1939 PRODUCTION IN THESE MONTHS MAY BE
FROM I TO 5 PERCENT GREATER THAN IN 1938. THIS INDICATION
IS BASED LARGELY UPON THE 5 PERCENT INCREASE IN THE NUM-
BER OF HENS AND PULLETS PER FARM FLOCK ON MARCH I AS COM-
PARED WITH A YEAR EARLIER, AS SHOWN IN THE UPPER CHART.








THE POULTRY AND EGG SITUATION AT A GLANCE


50
NUMBER


12
CENTS
PER
DOZEN

35


JAN APR JULY OCT JAN
*INDEX NUMBERS ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION

U S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE NE


APR JULY OCT
AON IST DAY OF MONTH


G 35160 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE I


FARM PRICE OF CHICKENS

A average
_--_ < 1925-S4 -










1939






PES-28 -

THE POULTRY Y AND EGG SITUATION


Summary


A larger production of eggs this spring than last and more poultry

going to market during the remainder of 1939 than during the same months of

1938, are expected by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics. Feed continues

plentiful and relatively low in price, and farm poultry flicks in early

March were about 5 percent larger than a year earlier. Reported egg pro-

duction per farm flock on March 1 was 3 percent above that of a year earlier.

Usually there is a seasonal rise in the ratio between feed prices and

egg prices at this time of the year, but during the past 2 months the feed-

egg ratio has beer, relatively constant.. The less-than-seasonal decline in

farm prices of eggs from February 15 to mid-March may be accounted for

largely by the sharp drop in prices during January.

Receipts of dressed poultry at New York in March were about- 46 per-

cent larger than in March last'year, because of th; heavier production of

winter broilers; Storage stocks of frozen pvultry'in early March also were

larger than a year earlier. Poultry marketing during the rerrmining months

in 1939 are expected to continue larger thun in 1938 because of more chickens

on farms this year and the prospective increase in the size of this spring's

hat .h.

Consumer incomes and demand for poultry are expected to average higher

this ,rea- t'n in 199.

Fer-d ., 'AJt c'n

S'-L --t cf ;.poultry, feed relative to the price of eggs normally rises
from December to June. During the past 30 days, the ratio (at Chicago prices)





PES-28


has remained relatively constant. The actual level of the ratio for the week
ended March 18 was 1 percent below the 1525-34 average. This is the first
week during 19-9 for rhich the ratio was below the 10-year average for the
corresponding vic3k. i.r t week ending Marci 25, the ra-:in rose slightly
and was 2 p, :ei.' :'e 1 10-yeLr average but 4 p..rcunt below the same week
a year ago. A lo-. f- .-d-e r'-tio t:nds to stimulate egg production by en-
couraging heavier feeding -nd less culling.

The supply of feed grains relative to animal units in 1939-40 will
be about the ,.-n. as for thi pre-drought period if farmers carry out their
Varch 1 int-u c.ns and if yields t.nd abandon, nt are about norn._L1. The indi-
cated acreage- -u be planted to f--!4 grains is about the s res as last year,
but the proc'ac.ion, if yields are near the 1923-32 average, would total about
91 million tons, approximately 6 million tons below that of last year, and 9
million tons below the 1928-32 average. The prospective large carry-over
from the current season, hovrev.r, would bring total supplies near the pre-
drought aver:'.-, and the supply pur grain-consuming animal would be about
average, altl,- igh mu-3h smaller than in 1938-39. Should yields be as high
this year as in the past 2 years, production wculd be about the same as last
year, and total supplies would again be above -.vcrage, both absolutely and
relative to the number of grain consuming animals on farms.

Fued-egg r.,tio at Chicago
(Ratio of cost of 100 pounds of poultry ration to price nf one dozen eggs)
: Week ending as of 1939
Year :Feb.:Feb,:MLr. :M.ar.:Mar.:Mar.:Apr.:Apr.:Apr.:June:Sept.:Dec.
: 18 : 25 : 4 : 11 : 18 : 25 : 1 : 8 : 15 : 24 : 23 23
:For- Per- Per- Fer- Per- Per- Per- Per- Per- Per- Per- Per-
:cent cent cent cent cent cent cent cent cent cent cent cent
Average
1925-34 ..:5.70 6.04 6.20 6.16 6.14 6.13 6.23 6.31 6.49 6.66 5.20 4.18

1938 .....:6.70 6.92 6.89 6.54 6.41 6.56 6.70 6.58 6.70 5.56 4.13 4.36
1939 ..... 6.07 6.21 6.38 6.19 6.05 6.28



Hatchings

The favorable feed situation continues to point to an increase in
the 1939 hatch as compared with 1938. If past relationships continue, a
2 to A percent increase in the number of young chickens on hand June 1, as
compared with 1938, may result from the 15 percent decrease in the October-
March feed-egg ratio.

While no estimates are available on changes in farm hatchings, re-
ports from commercial hatcheries showed an increase of 30 percent in the
number of chi-ks hatched in Februory as compared with a year earlier.


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PE3-28


Eggs set during February incraf Wd tr percent and advance orders on. March 1
were 24 percent above theprede'tpjg-ye r-

.A survey of farm poul1try'pr'oducers indicates .that.they intend to
purchase about 8 percent mnrp hatchery c.hicks in'1939 than they bought in
1938. -.....


Turkeys ,

About 26,279,000 turkeys were raised in the United Stated -in .1938.
This production was 2.5 percent 'arger than in 1937..hbut 5. percent smaller
than the peak production of 2-7,7UE,000 birds in 1936. The average production
for the 10-year period, 1929-38, was 21,839,000 birds. During the 10-year
period the most pronounced percentage increases by geographio.l"'arens'have .
been in the North Atlantic aid- East North Central States. A complete re-
port giving the number and value of turkeys i.se.d by States for' the years
1929 to 1938 may be obtained by writing the.Bureau of'Agricultural Economics.

A recent survey indicates that turkey' producers' intend '"to raise 27
percent more turkeys this year than last. As this is only'the second.annual
intentions report for turkeys, it is impossible to judge to what extent per-
formance may fall below these reported intentions. Large flocks which for
several years have been rapidly increasing in number and expanding in size
are more fully represented in the returns than-are the small.farm. looks
and this probably tends tn make the reported increase somewhat too high.
The extent of the increase in the number of turkeys raised this year will
depend upon the weather, the supply of suitable eggs for hatching, t'he abili-
ties of hatcheries to meet the expanding demand for poulfs,and finally, upon
further consideration by producers of the possibility that the supply of
turkeys this year might be in excess of the market demand at satisfactory
prices. While these and other factors are expected to resulting smaller in-
creases than shown by the intentions reports, a considerable increase in
production seems assured.


Poultry marketing ....

Receipts of dressed poultry at New York in March 1939 were about
46 percent larger than in March 1938 and about 10 percent above the 1925-34
March average. During the remainder of 1939, receipts will probably con-
tinue larger than in the same months of 1938. Receipts during the first
half of the year will tend to be larger because of the larger number of
chickens on hand January 1, while receipts during the latter part of the
year may be larger because of the increased hatch now indicated.


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PES-28


Receipts of dressed poultry at New York


Week ending as of 1939
Year : Feb. s Feb. : Mar. : Mar. : Mar. : Mar. : Apr. : Apr. : May
: 18 ; 25 : 4 : 11 : 18 : 25 : 1 : 8 : 27
:1,000 1,000 1,U0M 1,000 1,000 1,000 1.000 1,000 1,000
:pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds
Average
1925-34 .: 2,541 2,432 2,238 2,196 2,236 2,070 2,006 2,051 2,651

1938 ....: 2,333 2,340 1,729 1,358 1,841 1,707 2,538 1,989 3,819
1939 ....: 2,460 2,251 2,440 2,179 2,276 2,808



Poultry storage

Stocks of frozen poultry in the waited States on March 1 were 16
percent above stocks of a year earlier but 26 percent below the record high
stocks for March 1937. The out-of-storage movement has been increasing
seasonally and during March was about equal to the movement last year. How-
ever, it was materially less than the 1937 movement during March.


Storage stocks of frozen poultry at 26 markets

Week ending as of 1939
: Storage : Out-of-storage movement : Storage
Year : stocks : March g March : March : March a stocks
: Feb. 25 : 4 : 11 : 18 : 25 :March 25
:1,000 lb. 1,000 llb. 1,000 lb. 1,000 Ib. 1,IDC lb. 1,000 lb.
Average
1925-34 ..: 868,906 3,040 3,603 3,827 4,619 71,817

1937 .....: 121,795 5,166 6.,092 7,490 6,847 96,200
1938 .....: 77,939 3,615 4,228 4,164 4,213 61,719
1939 .....: 90,897 3,681 3,443 45216 4,813 74,744



Chicken prices

The farm price of chickens om March 15 was fractionally higher than
on February 15, but the increase was less than the average seasonal amonnt.
The price on larch 15, 1939 was 10 percent below last year and 18 percent
below the 1925-34 average for Maroh 15. The effects of the larger sup-
plies of poultry on farms and in storage this spring compared with last
will be partly offset by the higher level of consumers' income and demand.


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PES-28


Price per pound received by farmers for chickens


Year Jan.: Feb. : Mar. : Apr. : May : June : Aug. : Oct. : Dec.
Year : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 t 15
:Cents Cents Cents Cents Ce:Lts Cents Cents Cents Cents
Average
1925-34 ..: 13.8 17.2 17.5 18.2 18.3 18.0 17.3 16.8 15.8

1937 ..... : 13.4 13.6 14.4 15.2 14.8 14,8 16.8 17.6 16.4
1938 .....: 16.7 16.0 15.9 16.2 16.1 15.7 14.2 13.6 13.6
1939 ..... 14t.0 14.2 14.3



Domestic demand

The outlook is for some further improvement in demand for poultry and
eggs in the late spring and summer, but with relatively stable conditions for
the year as a whole. The index of nonagricultural income declined fraction-
ally in February as compared with January but was 2 points above February
last year and 1 point above the 10-year average for February.


Nonagricultural income
(Index numbers 1924-29=100, adjusted for seasonal
variation)

Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr.; May July Sept.: Nov. Dec.

Average
1925-34 ..: 91.3 91.2 90.8 90.3 90.1 90.2 90.0 89.6 89.4

1937 .....: 92.6 93.7 94.8 95.7 96.8 97.9 96.9 94.6 98.4
1938 *....: 91.2 90.0 89.5- 89.6 87.5 87.6 90.1 91.9 95.0
1939 .....: 92.4 1/92.2

1/ Preliminary.


Laying flock size


The
February.
mining on


number of laying hens per farm flock declined 3 percent during
This is about the usual seasonal decline. The number of hens re-
Varch 1 was 5 percent greater than a year ago but was 6 percent


less than the 1925-.?4 March 1 average.


Estimates of the total number of chickens on farms indicate a 7 per-
cent increase on January 1, 1939 as compared with 1938. This coincides with
the estimated 7 pcrocnt increase in number of laying hens per farm flock for
January 1. The preliminary estimate for number of chickens on hand January 1
1939, is 412,647,000 and the revised figure for 1938 is 386,573,000.


- 7 -





PES-28 8 -


Average number of laying hens per farm flock on the first
day of the month

Year Ja. Fe Mar. Apr. May j, Je Sept. Dec.
Lber iAimbh." Nunber Numr.ber Numbner Numoer Number Number
Average
1925-34..: 87.5 87.2 84.7 82.0 77.4 73.4 66.1 81.9

1937 ....: P4.2 82.5 80.0 77.5 73.1 68.5 39.9 74.4
1935 ....: 77.6 78.3 75.8 73.8 68.6 R5.0 59.8 78.0
1939 ....: s2.8 82.0 79.8



Egg production

Althc-. h egg production per hundred layers pil.ed by 2 percent to
equal last year's high March 1 production, it was 8 percent above the 1925-34
average for arch 1.

Reported production per farm flock on March 1 was 3 percent above
March 1 last year and 2 percent above the 1925-34 March 1 average.

The change in the aggregate of eggs laid per farm flock from March 1
to June 1 is an indication of the change in total egg production during
these months of heavy production. The chart on the cover page of this re-
port shows hrw the aggregate of these layings have varied since 1925.

The dotted lines indicate the range within which the 1939 production
may fall if past relationships continue. This range is based on figure 2,.
which shows the relationship between changes in egg production per farm flock
and changes in the number of hens and pullets per farm flock. The percentage
change in ti.e larch 1 t- June 1 production has been compared with the per-
centage change in flock size on March 1 for the years 1926-38.

Two aspects of production form the basis for this chart. First, since
March to June is a period nf heavy laying, farmers cull their flocks only
slightly in these months and the percentage decline in flock size from March
1 to June 1 remains practically the same from -ne year to the next. Conse-
quently, the change frmm the preceding year in the number of hens per flock
'n March 1 is a good indication of the change in the succeeding 3 months.
Seemnd, egg production per hen in these months varies much less from one
year to the next than does production in other months. Therefore, the change
in the number of hens per fleck on March 1 usually is a good measure of the
change in the most variable factor in the situation, namely the relative
level of flock size as compared with the preceding )--r. Changes in the other
factors do, however, keep this relationship from being followed exactly in
any one year.








C EGG PRODUCTION
a (PERCENTAGE CHANGE FROM PRECEDING YEAR) O

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m I
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o \ G)
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PES-2 8


- 10 -


Since egg production last year failed to decline as much as would have
been expected from the above relationship, the percentage increase in produc-
tion this year, as compared with last, may be less than would otherwise be ex-
pected. Taking this factor into consideration, the aggregate of the layings
per flock from March 1 to June 1 may increase from 1 to 5 percent over last
year as a result of the 5-percent increase in flock size on March 1.


Eggs laid per 100 hens and pullets of laying age in farm flocks on
the first day of the month


Year


: Jan.


. Feb. : Mar. Apr. May : June \ Sept.


Dec.


:Number Number Number Number Number Number Ilumber Number
Average
1925-34 .: 16.5 24.2 38.4 52.8 55.1 49.5 32.4 13.9

1937 .... 22.0 25.7 39.2 52.8 57.8 52.5 36.1 18.6
1938 ....: 22.7 32.2 42.2 57.9 58.1 52.9 35.3 19.9
1939 .... : 24.6 31.9 41.4



Egg marketing

Receipts of eggs at New York in March were 10 percent above 1938 but
were 15 percent below the 1925-34 average for this period. Receipts have
been increasing seasonally much less than usual, largely as a result of the
unusually heavy eLg production during the winter months.


Receipts of eggs at New York

: Week ending as of 1939
Year : Feb. : Feb. : Mar. : Mar. : Mar. : Mar. : Apr. : Apr. : May
: 18 : 25 : 4 i 11 : 18 : 25 : 1 : 8 : 27
:1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
casess cases cases cases cases cases cases cases cases
Average
1925-34 .: 125.4 134.1 154.1 162.7 181.3 200.4 220.7 233.9 217.9

1938 ....: 106.2 131.8 139.7 122.9 125.0 151.8 178.8 198.1 176.7
1939 ....: 112.8 133.3 118.3 135.6 152.5 188.1


Egg storage

The into-storage season for eggs usually continues from about March 1
to about August 1. Eggs are stored in the shell or are broken and stored in
frozen form. The proportion of eggs stored in frozen form has been rapidly and
steadily increasing. In 1938 frozen eggs represented about 38 percent of the
total eggs stored on August 1.







PES-28


- 11 -


It is too early t- make any definite predictions as to the probable
number of eggs which will be stored this year. In the past, however, changes
in storage holdings on Aug ist 1 fr.m one year to the next have been related
to changes in -arket receipts of -ggs from March to June and t" the storage
margin the pre.ious year. Since storage operators trade only a small profit
last year, tre principal factor affecting any change in storage holdings this
year from last will he the change in market receipts during the inkt-)torage
months.

Storag3 stocks of eggs at 26 markets


Year


Storage
stocks
Feb.25


: March
: 4


Week ending as of 1939
Into-storbge movement
: March : March :
: 11 : 18 :


March :
25


Storage
stocks
Mar. 25


Shell: : 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
Average : cases cases cases cases cases eases
1925-34 ..: 90 63 5 1--- 84 -~=T7 709

1938 .....: 149 24 103 138 207 621
1939 ..... 100 29 68 85 149 431

Froe.n:
1338 .....: 1,544 -32 7 17 18 1,540
1939 .....: 758 1 4 33 54 850


Egg prices

The farm price of eggs fell 4 percent from February 15 to March 15.
The average k1925-34) decline between these two dates was 20 percent but last
year it was only 1 percent. Frices cen March 15 were 1 percent below last
year and 17 percent below the 10-year average for March 15. The large drcp
in prices from January to March was sufficient to account for a major part
of the usual seasonal decline.

Price per dozen received by farmers for eggs

: Jan. : Feb. : Mar.: Apr. : May : June : Aug. : Oct. : Dec.
Year : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15
:Cents Cents Cmnts Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
Average
1925-34 ..: 31.0 24.0 19.3 18.7 18.7 18.6 22.0 30.0 35.7

1937 .....: 23.1 20.1 19.9 20.1 17.9 17.6 20.4 25.2 26.0
1931 .....: 21.6 16.4 16.2 15.9 17.6 18.2 21.0 27.1 27.9
1939 ..... 18.8 16.7 16.0




UNNVERSI OFU FLOKUA


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