Poultry and egg situation

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL EcoNoMICs
WASH I NGTON


PES -26 FEBRUARY I, 1939

-----------------------------------------------------
THE P O ULTR Y AND EG G S I T U A T I O N
-----------------------------------------------------




HENS AND PULLETS OF LAYING AGE': NUMBER PER FARM FLOCK ABOVE
OR BELOW 10-YEAR AVERAGE, 1ST DAY OF MONTH, 1925-39
NUMBER I I I--
10-YEAR AVERAGE. 1925-34
6

4 -_

2 _- _-

-YE10-YEAR AVERAGE 1ART DAY OF MONTH 192539




.4 __-

-6 -

-8 _-


1925 '26 '27 '28 '29 30 31 "32 "33 "34 '35 '36 '37 '38 '39
-IN FARM FLOCKS OF CROP REPORTERS ,PRAFLIMINARY

U S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE MEG 32473 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS




EGGS LAID PER FARM FLOCK*, NUMBER ABOVE OR BELOW
10-YEAR AVERAGE 1ST DAY OF MONTH. 1925-39


NUMBER

6

4

2

10-YEAR
AVERAGE

-2

-4


-6

-8


1925 1927 1929 1931 1933 1935 1937 1939
*IN FARM FLOCKS OF CROP REPORT-RS APRELIMIiARY
U. S. DEPARTEERT OF AsRILcITURE NEG 2474 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


I I I I
10-YEAR AVERAGE -1925-34



















.,. ,. .. .. ...h ,IL .. ...... ...l.. ..... I ..' ... ., .,'. ,I,,' ....... ..... '.... I ... .... ,,. ..,. I,,. ,, ,,. ,. ,, .,,,, J a,, .. ,Ib. .









THE POULTRY AND EGG SITUATION AT A GLANCE
( AVERAGE OF CORRESPONDING PERIODS. 1925-34=100)
PERCENT[ I I I PERCENT[ I I I


200




150




100




50


160


140


120


100


80


60




140




120




100


JAN. APR. JULY OCT.

U S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


JAN. APR. JULY OCT.

MEG 34866 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE I





PES-26 3 -

Surrnarm,

outstanding features in the p.-ultry and -g- situation. are the continued

record high prc.izJt icn of eggs per layer and the recent sharp drop in egg

prices. eitherer c-nditi-r:s and the feed-egg ratio have been unusually favor-

ablp fcr eggc prl.ucticn. Bat t.e drop which has already occurred in egg prices

and the pos.-ibility that other conditions affecting production may become less

favcrable mr.y tend to lsseen tne seasonal decline in prices during the next

few months.

The Bureau 'f Agriultu.ral Economics reports that poultry marketing

in January 19359 '-ere well ab.-ve last year's as a result of the heavier pro-

duction cf fall br :ii.-rs in 19C<9D as compared with 1937. Storage stocks of

frozen poultry .ni Janeiary 1 alic vrere larger than a year earlier. The net

out-cf-stcrage mro-mrj-mer.t rf sultryy was less this January than last because

of the larger available supply cf live and fresh 1'illed poultry.

Commer.-ical hrat.hings in [.'lvermber and December 1938, were well above

the same months in 1937 rc.intir.g to larger market supplies of winter broilers

during January, February and early Mar'h. Storage stocks of poultry also will

he larger than in thcse months last year. Probably .,nly a part of the de-

pressing effects cf these larger supplies on prices will be offset by the

anticipated higher level -f co'nsurr.er incomes and demand.

Feed situation

During Janjiary, the feed-egg ratio, based upon pries at Chicag.:, was
about 35 percent ab.:ve the I,--year (1926-35) January aver-ge. The ratio was
about 4 percent higher than in .January 1938. From May through the first half
of December 1938, the feed-egg rati- fcr each month was below the 10-year
average for the corresponding month. The upward changee in the ratio., in
relation to the seasonal average, is largely a result of the greater than
seasonal decline in egg prices during JFtanary. Feed prices made only the
usual, seasonal advance. Since fecd prices are expected to remain relatively
stable, changes in the' feed-egg ratio during the next few months will defend
largely on the trend of e-g prices.






Feed-eyb r-tio at Chicagc, as percentage of weekly average 1925-34

_-__ Tek ending as of 1939
Year Jan. : Jan. : Jan. : Jan. : Feb. : Mar. : May : Aug.:Sept.: Ncv.: Dec.:Dec.
: 7 : 14 : 21 : 29 : 11 : 25 : 27 : 26 : 23 : 25 : 23 : 30
Pet. Pet. Pet ct. Pct. Pet. Pet. Pet. Pet. Pct. Pot. Pct.

1938 :130.5 127.7 13-.l 132.6 135.5 107.0 79.2 77.3 79.4 96.7 104.3 103.o
1939 :123.6 144.7 135.6


Hatchings

Partly as a result of the favorable feed-egg ratio during the fall cf
1938, commercial hatch._ries in Deceember 1938 reported an increase cf 56 percent
in the number of chicks hatched as compared with December 1937. These hatch-
ings are primarily fcr winter broiler production. Future hatchings will be
affected by changes in the feed-egg ratio during January, February and March.

Poultry marketing

Receipts of dressed prultry at Hew York in January 1939, were about 18
percent above those cf a year earlier. This was l:,rely a result of the in-
creased prcductirn of poultry in 1938 as compared with 1937. Receipts reached
their usual seasonal peak in December. During the first half of 1939, re-
ceipts probably will be larger than in the first h-alf of 1938 because .f larger
numbers of chickens on hand January 1. Loultry marketing during coming months
will be affected by the trend of egg prices. If egg production becomes un-
profitable there will be some tenden-y to cull flocks.

Receipts of dressed poultry at New Ycrk

S,--o e-ndink aLs of 1939
Year : Jan. : Jan. : Jan. : Jan. : Feo. : Mar. : Oct. : Dec. : Dec.
: 7 : 14 : 21 28 : 25 : 25 : 28 : 23 : 30
1,000 1,000 1,0 1 1 D I I, 1,C,, 1,000 1,000 1,000n
:pounds rounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds
Ave rage
1925-34 :3,949 3,220 3,047 3,324 2,432 2,070 4,516 11,630 6,302

1938 ...... :2,611 2,055 2,485 2,639 2,540 1,707 5,187 8,994 4,062
1939 ...... :2,418 2,627 3,394


Poultry storage

Froze:-. poultry, stored during tht period from September to January, is
an important source *:f supplies for consumption during the first half of the
year when receipts of fresh poultry arc the smallest. Stocks of frozen poultry
in the United States on January 1, 1939 w-re 12 percent above stocks of a year
earlier but 27 percent below the record stocks on January 1, 1937. The net
out-of-storage movement during January at the 26 maj -- storing cities was less
in 1939 than in 1938, because cf the larger supply cf live and fresh-killed
poultry available this year as compared with 1938.


PES-26


- 4 -




PES-26


5 -

Storage stocks of frozen poultry at 26 markets


_; Week ending as of 1930-39
: Storage : Storage mcvenent : Stcrage
Year : stocks : Jan. : Jan. j: an. : Jan. : stocks
: Dec.31 : 7 : 14 : 21 : 2A : Jan.28
:1,000 lb. 1,000 lb. 1,000 lb. 1,COO lb. 1,000 1b. 1,000 lb.
Average
1925-34 91,748 + 4,662 + 622 742 1,373 94,917

1937-38 .... 935,182 + 419 1,319 2,5F7 1,215 88,480
1938-39 ....: 101,944 + 2,359 574 2,002


Chicken prices

The farm price of chickens rose frcm December 15 to January 15 but the
increase was less than the average seas:.l aricunt. The effect% of the larger
supplies of poultry, bcth on the farm ard ir. storage, this spring g comparedd with
last, may be only partially offset by the anticipated higher levrel of consumer
incomes and demand.

Farm price cf chickens per pound


: Jan. : Feb. : Mar.
: 15 : 15 : 15


: May
: 15


: June : July
: 15 : 15


: Sept.
: 15


Nov.
15


: Cents Cents Cent: Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
Average
1925-34 ..: 16.8 17.2 17.5 18.3 18.0 17.8 17.3 16.2 15.8

1937 ........ : 13.4 13.6 14.4 14.8 14.8 15.3 17.4 1..9 16.4
1938 ........: 16.7 16.0 15.9 16.1 15.7 15.0 14.3 13.6 13.6
1939 ........ 14.0



Nonagricultural income
(Seasonally corrected indexes,1924-29=100)


Year *Jan. Feb. Mar. May July ."Auet.Sept. Oct. ov. Dec.


.Average
1925-34 ...: 91.3 91.2 90.8 90.1


1937 ........ : 92.6
1938 ...... .. 91.2


93.7
CO.0


90.2 90.1 90.0 89.9 89.6 89.4


94.8 96.8 97.9 98.2 06.9 96.4 94.6 98,4
89.5 87.5 87.6 A9.0 90.1 90.5 91.9 94.5


Year








Laying flock size

The laying flock is usually near its maximum size for the year on January
1. This year the number of hens and pullets cf laying age in farm flocks was
about 7 percent above the record low on the same date in 1938, but 5 percent be-
low the 10-year average, 1926-35. The increase in size of laying flocks from
the low point in August 193, to January 1, 1939, was the largest on record.

The cc- r clihrt shawis laying flock size (adjusted fcr seasonal movements
by comparison ,.,ith the IG-year average of each month). The January figure was
considerably above January 1, 193?, but materially below the 1925 to 1934 level.
The graph h-s a distincly cyclical character, the low points during the last
decade having occurred regularly at 3-ycar intervals. if this cycle continues,
laying flock size cn January 1, 1940 will be above t-, t of this year. The
course of chicken and egg prices this winter, hcwevwr, may modify the usual
cyclical tendency in this instance.

Average number of laying hens in farm flocks on the first
day cf the month
Year JLan. : Feb. MNay y June Aug. Oct. I Nov. Dec.

.:umber I-Number FV'inibr Iumber I:umber Number Number Number
Average
1925-34 ...: 87.5 87.2 77.4 73.4 66.8 70.4 75.7 81.9

1937 .........: 84.2 82.5 73.1 68.5 62.1 64.3 69.3 74.4
1938 .........: 77.6 78.3 6R.6 65.0 59.3 65.6 72.5 78.0
1939 ........: q2.8



Egg production

The number of eggs laid on January 1 p.-r 100 hens and pullets cf laying
age continued at record high levels for this sEason cf the year. Predict ion
per hen was 8 percent above January 1, 1938, which had been the previous high
for this month, and almost 5A percent above the 10-year (1925-34) January 1
average.

ThL reported production per farm flock during November, December and
January exceeded all records for the corresponding months in preceding years
because of the increased flock size and the high egg production per hen. Total
production per farm flock on January 1, 1939 was 16 pci -nt above January 1
last year and 41 percent above the 1925-34 January average.


PES-26


- 6 -








Eg&s laid per 100 bens and pullest of laying age
in farm flocks on the first day of the month

Year Jan. Apr. Juno July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.
:Number Number Vumber lh er i u Wulu wr number Number Number
Average -., -
1925-34 .... 16,5 52.8 49.6 42.2 36.9 32,4 25,0 17.0 13.9
I
1937 ........., 22.0 "52., 52.5 44.4 40.4 36.1 28,8 21.1 18.6
1936 .........: 22.7 57.9 62.9 46.5 41.28 5.3 28.2 22.3 19.9
1939 .........z 34.6



Egg marketing

Egg receipts at New York since January 1 have been about 14 percent
above the same period in 19858 nd about 30 percent above average. Weekly re-
ceipts have been increasingg more slowly than in 1938, which may be a result
of the recent cold weather and Its temporary effeet on egg production. Re-
ceipts normally increase frga November to April er *ay.

Receipts of eggs at New York

-s Week ending as of 1959
Year a Jan. Jan.: Jan,: Jan.: Febes Apr.aMay : July I Uct. a Dec,
: 7 : 14 : 21 : 28 : 25 : 29 : 27 : 29 28 s 23
1,oo 1,000o .000 1,000 1,00 1,000ooo 1,000 1000ooo 1,oo 1,000
oases oases cases oases cases eases cases eases cases oases
Average a
1925-4 a 82.2 94.6 101.1 112.2 134.1 235.1 217.9 119.9 80.2 81.0

1988 ......z 85. 99.4 131.7 129.2 131,8 170.5 176,7 108.5 67.ft 103.2
1989 ,.,,..:117.4 116.7 127.7




Stocks of frozen eggs at 26 major storing centers an January 1, 1939
were about 48 percent less than on the same date in 1938. Strokes of shell
eggs are small at this season of the year but were 53 percent'smaller this
January 1, than last, and 61 percent below the 10-year January 1 average.
Because of the larger supply of fresh eggs and the smaller ecld storage hcld-
ings than last year, the net out-of-storage movement for shell eggs was lese
from January 1-24, 1939, than for the same period in the preceding year,


PI--26


- 7 -






8 -

Storage stocks of eggs at 26 markets


tsnvcna1iiT uP- tLUKIDj

3 1262 08903 93522

.2l


--- Week ending as of 1938-39
Item and : Storage : Cut-o-orage movement : Storage'
year : stocks : Jan. : Jan. i Jan. : Jan. a stocks
: Dec. 31 : 7 ; 14 a 21 : 28 : Jan,28
i I -ooo i500 l* |, 11000 ..
i: 1000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
: ases fases cases eases eases cases
Shell eggs :
Av.1925-34 : 787 205 149 107 90 238

1937-38 .....: 620 149 117 65 31 258
1938-39 .....: 288 83 27 37

Frozen

1937-38 ........ 1,905 48 50 60 58 1,689
1938-39 ......: 1,038 51 61 44



Egg prices

The .farm price of eggs Btll.32 p tnt frcm December 15 to January 15.
The average decline, 1925-34, was 13 percent and last year it was 17 percent.
Egg prices usually decline from the peak in November until the following March.
The very large egg production per farm flock the past several months is largely
responsible for the greater-than-seasonal price decline which has just occurred,
The seasonal decline which usually occurs in the remaining winter months may be
less than usual because of the sharp drop in December and January.


Farm price of eggs per dozen ::!

: Jan.: Feb. : Mar. : May : July : Aug. : Oct. : Nov. : Dec.
Year
: 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 i 15 : 15
:Cents Cents Oents Gentat s nts Cents Cents Cents Cents
Average
1925-34 .... 31.0 24.0 19.3 18.7 21.0 22.0 30.0 35.4 35,T

1937 .........: 23.1 20.1 19.9 17.9 19.4 20.4 25.2 28.0 26.0
1938 .........: 21.6 16.4 16.2 17.6 19.9 21.0 27.1 29.0 27.9
1939 .........: 18.8


PES-26