Poultry and egg situation

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
WASHINGTON

PES-25 JANUARY 4, 1939

-----------------------------------------------------
THE PO ULTR Y AND EG G S I T UAT I O N
------------- --------------



U. S. COLD STORAGE HOLDINGS OF POULTRY AND EGGS ON JANUARY 1
POUNDS
(MILLIONS)
POULTRY

150I Turkeys
150 Other poultry



100 --- -- --








CASES
I MILLIONS
EGGS
I rozen
Shell



3



2 ---------- -- --


SIll I
ra ra-!-


U. S. DEPAIITENT OF AGRICULTURE


'23 '25 '27 '29 '31 '33 '35 '37 '39
* ESTIMATED FROM 8TORAOE HOLDINGS OF BE CITIES
MIE 3II51 IUIEAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS









THE POULTRY AND EGG SITUATION AT A GLANCE
( AVERAGE OF CORRESPONDING PERIODS, 1925-34=100)


PERCENT I I PERCH

CHICAGO FEED-EGG RATIO

200 I-








100
1919 7 11








RECEIPTS OF EGGS
160 A---
S AT NEW YORK

140 -
s I










6 0 ,, ... i ... .....al. .. 7
100 P 100 HENS


140 -1
6 0



1--938 9...









100PER 100 HENS
140 I I-I 10







JAN APR. JULY OCT. DEC.9
,2 o o- -----:--- f--._- |NIr


















U S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
FIGURE I
FIGURE


JAN. APR. JULY OCT
NEG 34666 BUREAU OF ArRi'.UL7URAL ECONOMICS





PES-25 3 -

Summary

Recent important developments in the poultry, egg, and turkey situation

duri'hg December, says the Bureau of Agricultural E2onomics, were (1).a con-

-tinued favorable feed-egg ratio (2) a greater than seasonal advance in turkey

prices (3) no variation in farm price of chickens for the third consecutive

month (4) a record high rate of egg production, and (5) a large out-of-storage

movement of shell eggs.

Prices farmers receive for chickens have retained at the low level

of 13.6 cents during the last 3 months. Storage stocks of poultry on January

1 are estimated as being larger than a year agm. All supplies of poultry are

likely to continue larger than a year ago.

Egg prices usually decline from November or December until spring.

This year December egg prices are lower than November prices, even though

storage holdings are very small. Prices, however, are above 1937 levels. Low

feed costs also have continued to contribute toward increased egg production.

Turkey prices have increased more than .the usual seasonal amount and

are slightly higher than at this time last year. The favorable outcome for

producers will probably result in a further increase in production of turkeys

in 1939.

Feed situation

The relationship of feed prices to egg prices is important to poultry-
men since it not only influences the size of the spring hatch but also in-
fluences the quantity of feed fed to farm flocks and thereby directly affects
egg production. During December th,-. feed-Lgg ratio, as based upon prices at
Chicago, was slightly below seasonal, as indicated by the 10-year (1925-34)
average. The ratio is about 20 percent lower than it was during December 1937.
The feed situation is expected to continue favorable to poultrymen at least
until the approach of the 19Z9 harvest season.






4 -

The feed-egg ratio at Chicago, specified weeks, as percentages
of 1925-34 average


Year :Jan.
: 1
: Pet.


Week ending as of 1938
:Mar. :May :Aug. :Sept.:Oct. :Nov, :Dec. :
: 26 : 28 : 27 : 24 : 29 : 26 : 3 :
Pet. Pet. Pet. Pet. Pet. Pet. Pet.


Dec.
10
Pet.


:Dec. :Des. :Dec,
: 17 : 24 : 31
Pet. Pet. Pot.


1937 :167.8 149.0 162.8 134.0 140.4 125.5 124.7 131.6 123.7 110.2 116.5 117.6
1958 :117.6 107.0 79.3 77.3 79.4 89.4 96.7 97.8 98.5 97.1 104.3


Poultry marketing

Receipts of dressed poultry at New York in the first half of 1938 were
smaller than in the first half of 1937. This was largely due to the sharp
reduction in numbers of poultry on farms during 1937 and light culling during
1938. For last half of 1938, however, receipts at New York were between 10
and 15 percent more than in the last half of 1937. During December (through
December 24) receipts of dressed poultry at New York were 5 percent below the
1925-34 average for that month and 5 percent above the same period last year.

Receipts of dressed poultry at New York, average 1925-34,
annual 1937-38


: Jan. :
: 29 :
:1,000
: lb.


Mar.
26
1,000
lb.


: Oct.
: 29
1,000
lb.


Week ending as of 1938
: Nov. : Dec. : Dec. : Dec.
: 26 : 3 : 10 : 17
1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
lb. lb. lb. lb.


: Dec.
: 24
1,000
lb.


: Dec.
: 31
1,000
lb.


Av.1925-34 : 3,324 2,070 4,516 11,841 7,439 5,283 7,234 11,630 6,302


193? .......: 3,720
1938 .......: 2,639


Poultry storage


2,349 5,44? 7,044 4,358 4,754 11,626
1,707 5,197 8,676 4,697 4,937 11,261


7,121 3,389
8,984


Stocks of frozen poultry at the peak
than in 1938 and above the 1925-34 average,
ings of 1937. The into-storage movement of
this year exceeded that of a year ago. The
of 1939 is expected to exceed 1938.


in early 1939 will bu heavier
but lighter than the record hold-
poultry from September to January
into-storage movement in the fall


The into-storage movement of poultry has been increasing at a rate
greater than that for 1937. In December (through December 24) the into-
storage movement of poultry at 26 cities, has been 23 percent greater than
last ye-r but 6 percent below the 1925-34 average. On December 24 stocks of
poultry at the 26 cities were 7 percent above last year and 14 percent above
the 1925-34 average.


PES-25


Year





PES-25 5 -

Storage holdings of dressed poultry et 26 markets for weeks
ending November 26, December 24, .nd the following Jan.
1, and into-storage movement for the 4 weeks ending
December 24, average 1925-34, annual 1936-38

W: vek ending -s_ of 1938
Storage :Into-storage : Storage stocks
Year : stocks :movement ,Nov. :
______ ov. 26 :26 to Dec. 24 : Dec. 24 Jnh. 1 1/
:1,000 pounds 1,000 pounds 1,000 pounds 1,000 pounds
Av.
1925-34 : 62,631 25,008 87,639 91,748

1936 ......: 94,571 37,958 132,529 135,734
1937 .......: 74,621 18,944 93,565 93,182
1938 ......: 76,481 23,419 99,900

7/ Of year following.

Turk s

The form price of turkeys on December 15 was 2 percent above the price
a year earlier. The increase from November 15 Aas greater than the usual
seasonal incre-se. The favorable outcome fnr turkey producers will most likely
result in a greater crop of turkeys in 1939.

--Farm- price- of turkeys per pound


Year Oct. 15 : Nov. 15 Dcc. 15 Jan. 15 1/
: Cunts Cents C.nts C'tnts

Av. 1925-34 ....: 20.8 22.5 22.8 23.3

1937-38 ........ : 16.7 17.9 18.0 17.5
1938-39 ........ : 16.5 17.1 18.4

I/ Prices are for marketing season. January prices in each case are for the
January following December.

Non-igriculturnl income, monthly averages 1925-24, monthly 1937-38
(Seasonally corrected index-.s, 1924-29 = 100)

Ycsr Jan. Feb.: Mar. I May :July 'Aug. :Sept. Oct. .1Iov. :Dec.

Av.1925-34 : 91.3 91.2 90.8 90.1 90.2 90.1 90.0 29.9 89.6 89.4

1937 ......: 92.6 93.7 94.8 96.8 97.9 98.2 96.9 96.4 94.6 98.4
1938 ......: 91.2 90.0 89.5 87.5 87.6 89.0 90.1 )90.5 91.9

1/ Revised.








Chicken, prices

The farm price of chickens usually varies seasonally from a high in
April or May to a low in December. In 1938, the seasonal decline was
greater than usual, although the farm price of chickens remained at 13.6
cents during the past 3 months. The December 15 price of chickens was 17
percent below the prie -a year earlier, and 14 percent below the 1925-34
average. The effects of'a usual seasonal advance in prices in late winter
and spring and the expected slight increase 'r consumer's incomes, may be
offset somewhat by large supplies of poultry.

Farm price of chickens per pound


Year Jan. 15 Feb. 15 May 15 Nov. 15 Dec. 15


Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents

Av. 1925-34 .......: 16.8 17.2 18.3 16.2 15.8

1937 ..............: 13.4 13.6 14.8 16.9 16.4
193: ..............: 16.7 16.0 16.1 13.6 13.6


Laying flock size

The number of laying hens in farm flocks usually reaches a seasonal
low about September 1. During the last 4 months of the year pullets enter
the laying flocks, and about January 1 the size of laying flock is at a
maximum in most parts of the country. In 1938, from November 1 to December
1, there was about the usual seasonal increase in layers per flock. A
continued favorable feed situation and lighter culling of both young and old
stock may result in a 5 or 10 percent increase in the size of laying flocks
in 1939 over 193S.

Average number of laying hens in farm flocks

Year Jan.l :Feb.l :lay 1 :June 1:Aug. l:Oct. l:Nov. l:Dec. 1

:Number Number Number Number Numl :r Number Number Number

Av. 1925-34 : 7.5 97.2 77.4 73.4 66.8 70.4 75.7 81.9

1937 .......: 84.2 B2.5 73.1 68.5 62.1 64.3 69.3 74.4
193B .......: 77.6 78.3 68.6 65.0 59.3 65.6 1/72.5 78.0

1/ Revised.

Rate of egg production

An increased daily egg production per layer during the past year has
resulted from heavy feeding, which has been stimulated by favorable weather,
an abundance of feed and a very favorable feed-egg ratio. On December 1
the average number of eggs laid daily per 100 layers in farm flocks was the
largest on record for that date. It exceeded by 7 percent the previous high
recorded on December 1, 1937.


PES-25


- 6 -


g m


*






Production of eggs per farm flock (an indication of total United
States production) also reached a record high for December 1. This is a
reflection of heavier feeding and larger farm flocks due to the increased
hatch of 1938. The 12-month total for 1938 of number of eggs laid per
farm flock on the first day of each month was the largest since 1931. It
... .was..bout. 2 percent more than in 1937.

Eggs laid per 100 hens and pullets of laying age in
farm flocks on the first day of the month


Year 'Jan. Apr. .June July Aug. :Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.
plumberr Number Number Number Ilumber Number Nu.mber Iumiber Number

Av.1925-34 : 16.5 52.8 49.5 42.2 36.9 72.4 25.0 17.0 13.9

1937 .......: 22.0 52.8 52.5 44.4 40.4 36.1 28.8 21.1 18.6
1938 ......: 22.7 57.9 52.9 46.5 41.2 35.3 .B.-3 22.3 19.9


Egg mriarketings

Receipts of eggs at Hew York usually reach a se-sonal low point about
the middle of Niovember. With larger farm flocks and a high rate of egg pro-
duction,- however, rarketings in Decerber exceeded the usual seasonal level
as indicated by the 1925-34 average. In December (to Decemnber 24) receipts
at New York were the same as those for the sane period last year and 12 per-
cent above the 1925-34 average.

Receipts of eggs at New York,average 1925-34, -nnual 1937-38

: Week ending as of 1938
Year :Jan. : May :Aug. :Oct. :Nov. :Dec. :Dec. :Drc. :Dec. :Dec.
: 29 : 28 : 27 : 29 : 26 : ? : 10 : 17 : 24 : 31
:1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
:cases cases cases cases cases cascs cases cases cases cases

Av.1925-34 :112.2 217.9 100.2 80.2 69.9 65.7 72.0 75.6 81.0 78.8

1937 ...... :152.0 193.4 103.3 74.2 81.5 90.6 80.5 37.1 69.8 80.3
1938 ......:129.2 176;7 91.2 67.8 66.7 76.6 70.1 80.2 10352


Egg storage

The United States storage stocks of shell eggs at the usual seasonal
peak on August 1, 1938 werc the smallest for that date since 1916. On
December 24 storage stocks of shell eggs were 49 percent below last year and
53 percent below the 1925-34 average. Stocks of frozen eggs on December 24
were 44 percent below t:iose for the same time last year. The out-of-storage
movement during December was relatively greater than during the same period
last year.


PES-25


- 7 -







FES-25


Cold storage holdings and o
26 markets, average


Item and year


:Storage :
:holdings:
:Nov. 26 :


1,000
cases


Shell eggs
Av.1325-34

1935" ........
1938 ........
Frozen
1937 ........ :
1938 ........ :


2,309

2,097
1,447

2,163
1,250


D e. 3


1I,COO
cases


378

352
262

63
82


UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA

3 1262 08903 9662



iut-of-storage movement of eggs at
1925-34, annual 1937-38

Cut-of-storage movement :Storage
: holdinge
: Dec. 10 : Dec. 17 : Dec. 24 :Dec. A24:
f S* r :!:!id:^


1,0CO
c aSC;SS


325

327
208

42
56


1,000
cases


507

310
245

50
59


1,000
cases


278

257
198

52
66


1,000 "j
cases

1,021

851
434

1,956
1,087


rgg prices

The farm price of eggs on Duce:-ber 15 was 7 percent above that of a
year ago, although there was decrease- from the November 15 price. Egg
prices during tne winter months are a.terially affected by weather conditions
particularly when the reserve supply of eggs in storage is low, as it is this
year.


The expected smr-ll carry-ove-.r of
slightly i .proved consumer's income arc
But these -actors may be largely offset
fresh egEs during the early part of 1939


storage eggs on January 1 and the
favorable factors in the egg situatias.
by the exocctud larger supplies of i
.1


F.arm pricr.-s of egcs per dozen


: Jan. : Apr. : May : July : Aug. : Sept.: Oct. : Nov. : Dec.
: 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15


:Cents
Averae :
1925-34 ..: 31.0


22.3
23.1 1
21.6


Cents Ce-nts Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents

18.7 13.7 20.0 22.0 25.7 30.0 35.4 35.7


16.8
20.1
15.9


19.1
17.9
17.6


20.0
19.4
19.9


22.4
20.4
21.0


24.5
22.9
24.9


27.6
25.2
27.1


32.5
28.0
29.0


30.5
26.0
27.9