Poultry and egg situation

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
WASH I NGTON

PES-24 DECEMBER I, 1938

-----------------------------------------------------
THE POULTRY AND EGG S I TUAT I O N

--------------mmmmee---------------------------------


( U.S. FARM PRICES OF CHICKENS AND EGGS
CENTS
SPER
POUND CHICKENS




20 Average 1925-34










11937


10 -
CENTS
PER
DOZEN
EGGS
35


30
i|st Average 1925-34

25


20 15 --iu-



.i.1938



JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT NOV DEC.
E. U. I DEPARTM ENT OF AGRICULTURE MEG 3Z440 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS










THE POULTRY AND EGG SITUATION AT A GLANCE
I AVERAGE OF CORRESPONDING PERIODS. 1925-34=100
PERCENT PERCENT

CHICAGO FEED-EGG RATIO In| AkAnI.. 'r.. IAI


200 0 -


t I

150




100 -

1938

5 0 ... .......1
I
1 RECEI
160 AT


140 -
.!-- 1938
120 --


100


BO -


60 _._1 _I1 ___

EGGS
PER

140

S\ .193

120 -




100




80 I I
JAN APR


U.5 DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


100 -





50


I [


OCT DEC. AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV. DEC. JAN.
0*ASED OAI REVISED DATA

NEG 34754 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE I


APR JULY OCT. DEC.


I I I I
SHELL-EGGS. OUT-OF-
STORAGE MOVEMENT









- 1937-38 -




1938-39


I






PES-24 3 -

Suirmary

Recent important developments in the poultry and egg situation during

November, says the Bureau of Africultural Economics, were (1) a continued

favorable feei-egg ratio, (2) an increased into-itorage move:wn.t of dressed

poultry, (3) continued low chicken prices, (4) a record hib.h rate of egg

production per farm, flocK, (5) a less-than-seasonhl adv..n-e in egg prices.

Prizes farmers receive for chickens have bern dLc.lininr more than the

usual seasonal dezrese of 13 percent from April to ilover.ber. Chicken prices

usually reach a seasonal low in December. Sunplies of poultry are likely to

continue la -er than a year ago and will rcrepent prices fror. rising urore than

their upward seasonal trend in late winter rn.d early spring. Storage stocks

of poultry by Janurry 1 vill probably exceed those of a year before.

Egg pAices 1.ave advanced less than the usual sasFonal amount, even

though storage holdings are low. Mild weather and lnw feed costs have con-

tributed toward higher egg production. Egg prices are above 1937 levels and

because of the exceptionally lnw storage stocks, severe weather might cause

further increases in prices.

Even though turkey prices recently have been slightly below those for

last year, a favorable outcome for producers is expected because of lnwer

costs of production. Therefore, a further increase in numbers "f turkey is

likely in 1939.

Feed situation

Little change has been made in the feed supply situation during the
past 2 months. The total supply of corn, oats, barley, and grain sorghums
on October 1 was slightly larger than -n that date last year and again the
supply per grain consuming animal was unusually large. Feed grain prices
in recent months have been considerably below those of a year ago. The new
corn loan program together with the.prospective slight increase in consumer
incomes may support an increase in feed grain prices from the present low
level. The feed situation is expected to be favorable to poultrymen at le9s
until the 1939 harvest approaches.







PES-24 4 -

The relationship of feed pries to egg prices is important to
poultrymen because it influences the number of pullets saved for layers
in the fall as well as the size of the spring hatch. It also influences
the amount of feed fed farm flocks, which directly affects egg production.
During November the feed-egg ratio, as based unon prices at Chicago, approach.
ed the 10-year average. This indicates a feed situation less favorable to
poultrymen, as compared with the seasonal cycle, than has prevailed during
the past few months. But the rEtio is still considerably lower about 15
percent than it was at this time last yenr, adnd is the lowest for November
since 1932.

The feed-egg ratio at Chicago, specified vwc:ks, as percentage of
1925-34 average

Wrek ending as of 1933P
Year : Jan.: Miar.: May: June:AuJg. :Sept. .:O-t. :U!ov. :Nc.v. :Uc1v. :IIov. :Doc.
: 1 : 26 : 29: 25 : 27 : 24 : 29 : 5 : 12 : 19 : 26 : 3
:Fct. Pet. Pet. F t. Pet. Pet. Pet. Pet. Pet. Pet. Pot. Pet.

1937 :167.8 148.0 162.8 149.8 1Z4.0 140.4 125.5 118.1 106.6 117.9 124.7 131.6
1938 :117.6 107.0 79.3 83.5 77.3 79.4 89.4 87.7 90.S 100.3 96.7


Spring hatchings

Because of this favorable feed-egg ratio a further increase over the
relatively large hatch of 19S8 is likely in 1959. Beginning in 1925 a 3-
year cycle in numbers of chickens raised has been evident. Since the low
point in the ;resent cycle was reached in 1937, it is expected if the 3-
year tendency is continued that a high point will be reached in 1939.
There is a regular, though not exactly proportional, relationship between
the number of young chickens in flocks at the close of the hatching season
and the number on October 1, the approximate time of year when substitution
of pullets for hens in laying flocks usually begins.


1930 : 1931 :
Pet. Pet.


Chicks and young chickens in farm flocks October 1,
1930-38(1934 = 100)
1932 : 1933 : : 19 : 19'5 : 1936 : 1937 : 19
Pct. Pet. Pot. Pct. Pet. Pet. Pc


113.5 108.0 114.2 115.4 100.0 105.8 120.6 103.1 123.6


Poultry marketing

Receipts of dressed poultry at New York in the first half of 1938
were smaller than the year before. This was due to the sharp reduction in
numbers of poultry on farms during 1937, light culling during 1938, and a
below-average out-of-storage movement. During November (through November
26) receipts of dressed poultry at New York were 22 percent above the
1925-34 average for that month but 3 percent above the same period last year.


38
t.







PE3-24 5 -

Reeeipts of dressed poultry at N.ew York, average 1925-34,
annual 1927-30

: WV.'ek ending es of 1938
Year : Jan. : Mar. : July : Sept. : Oct. : Nov. : Nov. : Nov. : Nov.
: 29 : 26 : 30 : 24 : _9 : 5 : 12 : 1'3 : 26
1,000 1,Ou 1,('Cu .,0"O 1,60 1 ,'0 1,C J'o 1,00 1,000
: Liou.da pounds eo,1.,ds ou-ids pounds c i' s d .'.Ls i.ds pounds
Av.
1925-34: 35, E4 2,0"' 2, 51 3,922 4,516 4,643 4.9830 7,"764 11,841

1937 : r,720 2,349 3,'43 7,538 5,447 ,? 5,P?3 16,028 7,044
1958 : ,6Z3 l,7u? 3,933 4,997 5,127 4,?.3 5.C'G6 ,5b40 8,676


Poultry T s ge

Sto-+s of frozen poultry at the p.'ak in e-'rly 1.79 aru expected to be
heevi rr th I in i'A8 an:. abovw' the 1925- '-7 0r -r- )UL li<er than the
record hr..liings of 1937. Bec sse c,' th.e >:' er r--2ductiZ n of chickens and
t'iurkya in 1938, Lth n-t -.nt)-storww caov.-r -at icring .tne period of
accurLmulti ns Ir-.rL Sept-.N-r tc Ja.nar/ is extc' to excee' that of a
year a g au0c is lik.2ly tc apLproximatt nr slightly excee-6 the 1925-34 average
for the perJi.'.d. The ialo--torage mnvenant of p-ultry during the latter part
of 19"9 is i so e-.pee'ted to exceed that of 19,C.

The intn-storag3 r.nvemr.nt of poultry, has teen incr.-asing at a rate
greater th.%n that for 19,;. At the end of the first w~.ek in .august this
year, storage stocks at E cities were about 75 percent rf whet they were
in early Au.-ust Irst ye-r, while for the *-.cek enc."ng Uo--emblr 26, stocks
this year we-re 102 pCrc.nt of those last year on t.ie sar.3 date. Storage
stocks as of November' 26 are 22 percent above the 1925--4 average.

Storage hcldinps of dressed poultry at n6 :ner.:ets for vweRks
ending Noverabrr 26 ind the following J-.uadry I and into-
storagr moveMunt for that period -ind icr the 4 wee!s end-
ing Nevember 26, average 1925-34, annual 19Z6-Z3

: Week ending as of 193__
: Into-storage : Storage : Into-storage : Storage
Year :movement,Oct. : stocks :inpvement ,Nov. : stocks
:29 to Nov. 26 : Nov. 26 :26 to Jan, 1 allowingg Jan. _l
1: ,0CO pounds 1000 pounds 1,COO pounds 1,000 pounds

Av.1925-34 17,352 62,631 29,117 91,748

1936 ....... 23,911 94,571 41,163 135,754
1937 .......: 19,485 74,621 18,561 95,182
1938~ ......: 22,137 76,481
__ At




PES-24


I
Turkeys

The farm price of turkeys on November 15 was 4 percent below the
price a year earlier. This resil.t c)uld be expected in view of a slight
increase in the 1933 turkey crop over that of 1937. The price effect is
partly offset by lower costs of production this year. Turkey prices in
November were sustained somewhat by the prevalence of w.-am w-ather
throughout the country which retarded the development end preparation of
turkeys for mcrkdt. This will probably mean a larger supply on the market
later in the season.

Farm price of turkeys per pound

Year Oct. 15 Nov. 15 : Dec. 15 Jan. 15 1/
: Cents Cents Cents Conts

Av. 1925-34 .: 20.3 22.5 22.S 23.3

"1937-35 16.7 17.9 13.0 17.5
1938-39 .......: 16.5 17.1

I/ Prices ara for marketing season. January prices in each ca.e are for
the January following December.

Nonagricultural income, monthly averages 1925-34, monthly 1937-33
(Seasonally corrected indexes, 1924-29 = l:0)

Year Jan. Feb. 'Mar. May "July 'Aug. :Sept.:Oct. "Nov. "Dec.

Av. 1925-34 : 91.3 91.2 90.3 90.1 90.2 90.1 90.0 39.9 89.6 S9.4

1937 .......... 92.6 93.71 94. 96.3 97.9 93.2 96.9 96.4 94.6 9s.4
193 3 ..........: 91.2 90.o 39.5 37.5 37.6i/S9.0' l'.l 90.3
1/ Revised.

Chicken prices

The farm price of fhlickens usually varies seasonally from a high in
April or May to a low in December. This year the seasonal decline has been
greater than usual. The November 15 price of chickens, while it is the same
as that for October 15, is 20 percent below that for Nov-.-ber 15 last year,
and'l percent below the 1925-34 average. A usual seaso ',l advance in prices
in late winter and early spring, plus the expected slight incra.-"a in con-
sumers incomes, may cause prices to approach those of the spring of 1938.
Farm price of chickens per pound

Year May 15 Sept. 15 : Oct. 15 Nov. 15 Dec. 15
Cents Cents Cents C.-nts Cents
Av. 1925-34 ...: 18.3 17.3 16.S 16.2 15.8

1937 ............ 14.g 17.4 17.6 16.9 16.4
193g ............ 16.1 14.3 13.6 13.6


- 6 -






- 7 -


Laying flock size

About January 1 laying flocks in most parts of thu country are at
their maximum sizo becausns of th' p.ullcts entering laying flockr7 in the last
4 months of the year. About Sete bor 1 thM number of li.ying h.:ns in farm
flocks us-uall, reerc.es a l:o-on~l. l.hv. Th incr.-cs of theo 1-,iing flock
size from Sc-tcmber 1 to ,jcvembl-r I for the o'925.-. aver -g, f-r 1937, and
for 1938 Jar 15 percent, I.L percent, and 22 eorcei..: r-srpctL.vely. The number
of layers rcr flock (Ilovember 1 report) it 'irear: 5 pcrcen.Z groator than
last year. With a ccntinu.d favorable foed siturt..rin e.id licgher culling of
both vung and old t.ock-, t size of laying floc's .vi'.l robabl., be around
10 prc..nt larger durinEg L-r com..ng year than thi; havw ben in 193S.

Avcr,-.ge number of laying h,-ns in fi.m floc!ks

Yea-r "Jrn. 1 May 1 tJuno 1 'Aug. I 'Sept. 1'Oct. 1 M"lov. 1 "Dec. 1
.: .mbr Iurht.-r iFuber N.utimbr uito'e- !':..hr I.'umber Iumber

Av. l925-3J : 37.5 77.4 73.4 66.z 6G.l 73.4 75.7 81.9

1937 .......: 84.2 73.1 32.5 62.1 59.9 6h.3 9.3 74.4
1933 ....... 77.6 63.b 65.0 59-3 59.s 5.6 73.0


Rate of egg prcducton

An increased daily egg production per layer during th,- past year has
resulted from heavy feeding which has been stimulrt., d by favor-ble weather
with ean abundr.ce of feed ;nd a very favorab'.e feed-cgg. rtio. During every
month from January through August, with onl:. one except i .;n, egg production per
hen continued at a record high seasonal level. On September 1 und October 1
the rates dropped slightly below the levels fc.r the snre dates last year, but
they still exceeded the S-.ptember and October records for all other years.

Production of eggs per farm flock an indiontion of total United States
production reached a record high for November 1 :his ynr. This is a
reflection of heavier feeding and larger farm flocks from the increased hatch
of 1938.

Eggs laid per 100 hens and pullets of laying age in
farm flocks .*n the first day of the month

Year Z Jan. Apr. T June July : Aug. -Sept. Oct. N: ov. Dec.
liLumber Fumber Number Number Number Number Numuber Number Number

Av. 1925-34 : 16.5 52.s 49.5 42.2 36.9 32.4 25.0 17.0 13.9

1937 ........ 22.0 52.8 52.5 44.4 4o.4 36.1 28.S 21.1 18.6
1938 ........ 22.7 57.9 52.9 46.5 41.2 35.3 28.2






PES-24 S -

Egg merketings

Receipts of eggs usually reach a seasonal low point about the middle
of November. Marketirgs of eggs during the spring nxid summer of 1938 were
much lighter than usual. With larger farm flockc and a high rate of egg
production, h..'-ever, marketing at Hew 'Zork are again approaching seasonal
levels. In I1: e-mber (to Uovember 26) receipts at e w. YorL .,vere 12 percent
below those f:"- the same period last ycnr and only 2 percaernt below the
1925-34 average.

Receipts of eggs at New York, avor-go 1925-f4, annual 1937-3Y

:. Wek end',Cl r, of 193S
Year :Jan. : J,;' :July :Aug. :Sopt. Cct. :IJov. :fov. :Uov. :UTov.
: 20 : P 30 :27 21'- 2q9 :12 :19 : 26
:l,0Ou i,r J:I ,L:":l,,-OO:1,".,:_ 1,0: 00:l,0o0 : ,000 1,00011,000
itcacel.S:CZaS :care3:cases: caZes:coses:Oaces:c.Zcasuc.cases:cases

Av. 1925-34 ... :112.:217.9:119.9:100.2:101.3: 30.2: 74.0: 68.4h 69.2: 69.9

1937 ........... l52.:019 .4: Iln. 5! 0o .3: 96.6: 714.2: 77.-3 7S3.3 77.2: El.5
1938 ..........:129.2:l4c.7:l13.5: 91.2: 94.6: 67.6: 76.4: 61.4: 72.6: 66.7


Egg storage

The United States storage rtocl:ks of ycre at ,the usu-.l eas:::al peel: on
August 1 this year ware the smnllr.ct since 191.6. Stucka- of frozen eggs were
also small. The re.ucticn in: sho.l egg stc.cks at 2 ci-i?s sir.:e July 30 has
been n9 percent ;.lhile the c25-54 avrr,.a.ge reduction is E4 percent. While
the storage o"ramcnct lvas slow in October, the cub-of-stor.i.-L movement since
October 29 has beacn 45 percent; thc IC-year average rmovc-mn't for the comparable
period is 39 percent.

Cold storage holdings and out-of-storage Lovem.r'.T of cggs at
26 markets, average 1925-314, aLtu.A 1937-33

Storage : Out-c-.f-etorrae _:c.vme".t : Storage
Item and year :holdcigs : 1v. 12 w. 19 : v. 26 :holdings
Oct. 29 : : : : : Nov. 26
: 1,000 1,a0 1,000 1,0'&. 1, 00I' 1,000
: c .ss cases c ae.-s c ree c-as rs cases
Shell eggs
Av. 1925-34 ..: 3,310 3S2 395 333 341 2,309

1937 .........: 3,624 429 385 36S 345 2,097
1933 .........: 2,613 289 272 327 273 1,447
Frozen
1937 .......... 2,383 51 78 51 4o 2,163
1938 .........: 1,620 85 66 65 54 1,350







Egg prices

The farm price of eggs while rising some is falling behind its usual sea-
sonal advance for this time of the year. The United States average for egg prices
in local markets on November 15, however, were 4 percent above those of a year ago.
Egg prices during the winter months are materially affected by weather conditions
parti-ularly when the reserve supply of eggs in storage is low as is the case this
year.

The expected small carry-over of storage eggs on January 1 and thp slightly
improved consumers' income are favorable factors in the egg situation. But these
factors will be largely offset by the expected larger supplies of fresh eggs dur-
ing the early part cf 1939.

Farm prices of eggs per dozen

SYea Jan. : A r. May Jul Aug. Sept. Ccet. Nov. Dec.
Yea :15 : 5 15 1 15 15 : 15 : 15
: Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
Average
1925-34 ....: 31.0 18.7 18.7 20.0 22.0 25.7 30.0 35.4 35.7

1936 ........: 22.A 16.8 18.1 20.0 22.4 24.5 27.6 32.5 30.5
1937 ........: 23.1 20.1 17.9 19.4 20.4 22.9 25.2 2P.0 26.0
1938 ........: 21.6 15.9 17.6 19.9 21.0 24.9 27.1 29.0

SUPPLE1TENTARY DATA
Production estimates revised

Estimates of chicken and egg production in the United States have been re-
vised back to 1925.' Through a rather intensive study of chicken and egg production
and consumption, it was determined that previous estimates were on too low a level.
Revised estimates by States will be available within the next few weeks.

Chicken and egg production, United States, 1925-37
: All chickens on N: umber of chickens : Iumber of eggs
Year : farms Jan. 1 : produced 1/ : produced
f Thousands Thousands I i lions

1925 : 434,998 626,069 34,969
1926 : 438,000 664,594 37,248
1927 : 460,999 693,657 38,627
1928 : 474,997 639,917 38,659
1929 : 449,006 692,328 37,921
1930 468,491 714,380 39,067
1931 : 449,743 646,579 38,532
1932 : 436,815 672,619 36,298
1933 : 444,523 684,929 35,514
1934 : 433,937 604,511 34,429
1935 : 389,958 632,365 33,305
1936 : 401,238 703,067 33,996
1937 42f,257 583,867 37,647
1938 : 387,251
1/ Net production during the calendar year, i.e., chickens sold, consumed in farm
household, and the plus or minus difference in inventory.
Revised estimates of numbers on farms for 1925-34, inclusive; and of chickens and
eggs produced for 1925-35, inclusive.


PES-24


- 9 -




UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
i3 1262 08903 9670illl lll
3 1262 08903 9670


PES-24


- 10 -


Nonagricultural income indexes

Nonagricultural income for.the United States also has been revised back
to 1919. The revised indexes, prepared by the Agricultural Adjustment Adminis-
tration, are given in the following table.


Nonagricultural income, United States, 1919 to date

(Seasonally corrected indexes, 1924-29 = 100) *


Year :Jan. :Feb. :Mar. :Apr. : May :June aJuly :Aug. :Sept.:Oct. :Nov. :Dec. : Av.
a ... .; a S a a

1919 : 70.8 66.3 65.1 65.8 66.2 68.2 71.9 73.9 75.9 73.9 76.7 79.5 71.2.;'
1920 : 83.9 81.0 83.7 82.8 83.2 R4.5 85.1 84.5 83.6 81.0 79.7 76.3 82.4 :
1921 : 75.8 73.4 72.5 71.9 72.9 13.3 72.3 73.1 72.5 71.4 72.2 72.5 72.8-'j
1922 : 70.7 70.1 71.0. 70.6 73.7 76.6 75.5 77.9 80.5 80.3 82.9 83.0 76.1 |,
1923 83.7 82.4 83.9 84.8 .86.8 87.5 88.2 88.4 88.4 89.2 90.8 90.3 87.0 0
1924 : 91.5 92.5 92.0. 92.6 90.7 88.8 87.5 88.0 89.2 89.1 89.9 92.6 90.4

1925 : 93.5 93.5 93.3 93.7 94.2 95.0 96.8 96.7 97.0 99.6 100.2 100.2 96.1
1926 :100.2 100.5 100.9 100.2 98.3 99.6 99.0 99.7 100.8 101.8 101.5 101.2 100.1
1927 :101.5 102.0 101.7 102.1 102.2 102.3 101.8 102.3 101.8 100.6 100.6 100.6 101.6
1928 :101.7 102.3 102.9 102.5 102.5 104.2 1P5.5 105.6 105.3 105.4 1i5.1 104.9 104.0
1929 :104.7 105.8 105.8 106.4 107.2 107.7 109.6 110.4 1n9.9 109.1 107.7 106.5 107,6
1930 :105.9 105.3 104.4 103.8 103.7 102.9 102.1 99.9 99.2 97.0 95.2 93.6 101,4

1931 : 92.2 92.0 91.1 90.2 89.1 87.9 86.9 84.8 P3.2 81.2 80.1 78.7 86.4
1932 : 77.9 76.4 74.5 72.2 70.2 67.6 65.6 64.3 65.2 65.2 64.9 63.9 69.6)
1933 : 63.3 62.5 60.5 59.9 60.6 62.1 62.3 64.4 66.1 66,4 67.3 69.8 63.8-
1934 : 71.9 72.1 72.7 72.0 73.1 72.8 72.6 72.7 71.8 72.4 73.2 74.2 72.61.
1935 : 76.1 76.7 76.4 76.8 76.4 76.5 76.4 77.4 78.5 79.6 80.5 82.7 77.8.|
1936 : 82.9 83.2 83.5 83.9 85.2 85.5 87.3 87.9 88.3 89.6 92.2 100.4 87.51,

1937 :.92.6 93.7 94.8 95.7 96.8 96.8 97.9 98.2 96.9 96.4 94.6 98.4
1938 : 91.2 90.0 89.5 89.6 87.5 87.3 87.6 89.0 90.1 90.3