Poultry and egg situation

'-I


UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
WASHINGTON

PES-22 OCTOBER 3, 1938

------------------------------------------------------
THE POULTRY AND EGG S ITUATI ON
------------------------------------------------------



U.S. FARM PRICES OF CHICKENS AND EGGS
CENTS
POUND 1 1.- ..I
P E R


20 Average 1925-34








--S .---.. ^ --

1937


t0 --- --- --- -
CENTS
PER
DOZEN EGGS

35



30 -- -
3 Average 1925-34 4
de




-\_- %



15 .

/1938


JAN FEB. MAR APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT NOV. DEC
U.S DEPARTMUWT OF MNICUJTLIUF BEG 32480 BUREALI OF AGRICULIURAL ECONOMICS








THE POULTRY AND EGG SITUATION AT A GLANCE
(AVERAGE OF CORRESPONDING PERIODS. 1925-34= 1001
PERCENT I I I I PERCENT I I


200



150



100



50





100





80





60


- --
I r 1
19 IF




193938 a
.1 I ,, i 1, 1 I I


i I
SIZE OF LAYING FLOCK

00


e1937




90'
95 .....---




90 -



85 I I I I I I I I


120



110



100



90




140



120



100





130


120



110



100



90


JAN APR JULY OCT. DEC


U S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


JAN. APR. JULY OCT. DEC.
NEG. 34598 IIUEAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE I


EGG FUTURES PRICES
EGG FUTURES PRICES





PES-22


THE P O ULTR Y AND EG G S ITUn T I CJ
-----------------------------------------------------------

Summary

By early fall some indications of the prospects for poultry and eggs dur-

ing the ensuing year are available. At the present time, important developments

during 1939 are expected by the Bureau cf Agricultural Economics to include: (1)

a larger hatch than in 1938, resulting from the continued favorable feed and egg

price situation; (2) larger poultry supplies throughout the coming year, because

of the increase in the 1938 hatch and the expected further increase in 1939; (3)

increased supplies of eggs, due to a larger number of pullets entering laying

flocks and the favorable feed situation; (4) an increase in storage holdings of

eggs in 1939 compared with the very low stocks of 1938, as a result cf the larger

supplies of eggs and the anticipated favorable outcome cf the current storage

deal; (5) increases in consumers' incomes to at least partly offset the unfavor-

able price effects of larger supplies of both poultry and eggs.

The production of fall and winter broilers is increasing materially

because of expansion by producers already established in the industry and thu

entrance of now producers. The effects of this increase may cffs:t any ad-

vantage gained through the more favorable feed situation.

Turkey production in 1938 is estimated at 3.7 percent more than in 1937.

The price effects of increased supply and low'. r cons um.rs' incomes during the

current marketing season than in 1937 will be partly offset by the producers'

lower ccets of production this year. A favorable outcome for producers in

1938 and abundant feed supplies for next season may result in a further in-

crease in numbers of turkes in 1939.


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PES-22


Feed situation

A tctal supply of feed grains mere than 10 percent larger than last year
is indiratced by the very large crop of wheat, the above average production of
corn, grain norghuim and barley, and a hanvy carry-cv-.r of grains from 1937
crops. While numbers of livestock en January 1, 1939, will be larger than on
the sa-ne dat? in 1938 th1- increase in numbers of grain consuming animal units
will be less than 10 pt.rer.nc. The feed situation, therefore, rill be favor-
able to poultrymen i.t least until the 1939 harvest approaches.

The relationship of foed prices to egg pric.-s is important to poultrymeri
because it inf'luer.ccs the number of pullets r-av.d for layers in the fall as well
as the size of the spring latch. It also influences the amount of feed fed farm
floc1 which directly affects egg production. In Septembcr the feed-egg ratio
was only slightly more than half as high as at the came time in 1937 and less
than 80 pcreeint of the 10-yeLr (1927-36)a5erage. It is expected that this ratio
will remain favorable tc poultrymen at least during the first half of 1939.

The faed-egg ratio at Chicago, specified weeks, as percentage of
1925-34 avurage
Wc..k ondin itas of 1938
Year : Jan.: Mar.: May: June: July: Aug.:S3rpt.:Srpt.:Sept.:Sept.: cOt.: Dec.
: 1 : 26 : 28: 25 : 30 : 27 : : 10 : 17 : 24 : 29 : 3
:Pet. Pct. Pet. Phct. -ct. Pet. Fet. Pet. Ect. Pot. pet. Pet.

1937 :167.8 148.0 162.8 148.8 133.7 134.0 143.8 149.1 144.3 140.4 125.5 131.6
1938 :117.6 107.0 79.3 83.5 78.0 77.3 75.0 73.2 78.3 79.4

Spring hatchings

Because of this favorable feed-egg rating u further increase c'vr the
relatively larg3 hatch of 1938 is likely in 1939. Bginn-iing in ]925 a 3-year
cycle in numbers of chickens raised has be. n evident. Since the low point in
the present cycle was reached in 1937, it is expected -- if the 3-yc-.i.r tendency
is ccntinucd -- that a hi6h point will b reuched it. 1939.

Chicks and young chickens in f:.rm flocks Juno 1, 1930-38
(1934 = 100)
1030 : 1931 : 1932 : 1933 : 1j34 : 1935 : 1936 : 1937 : 1938 '
Percent &Frount Purcrt EPrc.nt P rc nt I c rc-ent Percent Percent Percent

117.1 102.3 105.0 111.5 100.0 99.4 110.9 94.7 105.9

Poultry market ings

Receipts of dressed poultry at ;ew York in the first hAIf of 1938 were
smaller than a year befcre. This was due to the sharp reduction in numbers of
poultry on farms during 1367, the light cillir! during 1938, and a below-
average out-of-storage movmnicrt. Largely bcu-.se of the heavier hatch, receipts


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PEZ-22'


Turkeys

ihe number of turkeys on han- September 1, 1933, was estimated to be
about 3.7 percent greater thar. in l?37 ani about 6 percent less than in 1936,
which was the year of maxiiaim production. Owing to abundant feed and a favor-
able season for growth crop reporters estirmte turl:cys will be marketed at
slightly heavier weights th:ia last year.

Incre-se over 1937 in tur!c-ys on hand September 1

: Increase : : Increase
Division : over 19_7 : over 1937
: Percent : : Percent
East North Central 12 :7ccst South C-ntral 0
New Englani : 10 :South Atluntic : 2
West Iorth Central 10 :Wstcr:i Mou'ntcin 7
lAiddle Atlantic : 9 :Zast South Central : -14
Pacific Coast 5 : otol net ir.crease 3.7


The present situation indlica.cs t hat t-'e turkey ,d0-tl will be at least
as favorable or oven more fa.vorTblc to jro.'.uc.ors th n last y>ar. The favorable
factors inclule: much lo.:er pric-s of food. tiis :'-.r, loucr prices of poults,
a satisfactory gro;.ing season vith heavier wzig'ts, Eimllcr carry-over of turkeys
and chicl:ns in cold stora.::, and an inUcruasd tetdcincy totuard all year round
consumption of turkeys. The mod rate ir.ccas's in numnbcr and heightss of birds
to be m-.rk.cted, and loe.r ccnsum.jrs' incomes comar ..'ith last year, will
partiall, offset thiee favorabic factors.

A fa-::..r .bl outcome for prodcceers ir. 1 3 :.nd abunidnt fc.d available
for next sec.-oi. apeur likely to result in a further incr-as in numbers of
turkeys in i939.

Chicken pricess

Farm prices of chickens h:ave bcon declining in relation to their normal
seasonal trend throughout 193b. The increase in consumer' incomes during the
remainder of this year may nit be suffacieo.t to offset th- larger supplies of
poultry to be markLtcd itr t:,c last quarter o.' 1'38 than a year earlier.

FarLi price of chickens per pound


Year .ay 15 Sat. 15 2 Dec. 15

Cents Cent s Cents
Average 1925-34 1: .3 17.3 15.0

1937 14.3 174 16.4
193 : 16.1 14.3





PES-22 7 -

While. storage r nd frmsh supplies of poultry iii the zirst hr.lf of 1937
probably will bc l:.rgr h-t i.: thc corroeson-Ling p ri.i of 19i3, higher con-
sumers' iT.coUes are lirtoly to partly cffsct tao effect of thosL increased
supplies. Chicken prices usrilly zdvancc scascnally ab.-ut 15 percent from a
winter low until April or ipA.. If such an incrca.c .cey.rs in 1939 it -:ill result
in prices sonewherc near th-sc !r'tvailirg itn tie spring cf 1938.

The expected irrcr:-sc i.i 1'?39 hatehings may keep chiecko riches :.t rela-
tively low levels during the lazt haif of 1?3' unless c:jns-mcrE' inccrm.s inc-rease
more than- is now anti iipr.t-d. It is unlikely, ho-.::cvr, thl t pric-.3 i,-. 1930
v:ill decline from their yea: a: nucn as in 1930, weio. lart. m-rrketigrs -.ddrd
to the effectt of rclativl:.- lo.: conf'lsttrs' incoZes.

:]onagricultural income, rzn'hly aver.gcs 1925-34, monthly 1936-30
(Ecea.onr.ll:' corrected indexes, 1')2.-29 = I')

Year Jan. : 2c.r. Apr. La:" J'une .'uly Aug. c pt. Cct. Dec.

Avcrgc -:
9-25_-:. -.o 9b.1 3.9 ?.7 *5:.2 69.6 C?.C '0.,.4 ,3?.4 ES.C

1936 : .5 5 L 3.1 34.1" 35.1 o6.? 87.4 87.9 0.59. 100.9
1937 : '2.: 95. .3 .. .; s.; 7.7 9.2 96.0 6.3 9C.3
1933 : 09.) 7.? .7.1 35.4 1 3.0 -1 '. 8P6.6

1/ freviscC.

. Lain flock size

The aver'.ge size of !ayiig' I locks decreased bout 23 percc'.t rom
January 1 to Septe-ber 1 of this year compared with a dccre:sec of 29 percent
las- yuar ancr ,-ith a u'-ua! decrease of about 2_ percent. On Jaruary 1, 1938,
the average number cf layers per farm flock wa-s the lo'..st of record since
1924 for th.-t late. ;By Sc;jtcmber first, ho.:,evzr, thl- nurber per flock :-.ms
practically the sa.-c uas on .1h?, -t d.-a e la.i. y'-.r.

Average rn.'.mb.-r cf la;,'in hes in farn flocks


Year Jan. 1lApr. 1:I.:ay 1 :June 1 .ulI 1.AuG. 1 scpt.l:Jov. 1 .Dec. 1

: ,uroer u.Nbor Nurbe.r I.'r.bcr :umber ;uonber T'umb-,r c Turber IIunbor
Average -
1925-34 37.5 z.0o 77.4 73.4 6).6 66.3 _.6.1 75.7 831.9

1937 : .2- .7,, 73.1 63.5 -3.6 62.1 59.' 69.3 74.4
13 77.6 7:. 3.6'- 65.0 61.6 1/59.3 59.3

1/ Revised.

With increased nu-.,bers of earl" pmullets entering laying flocks, a favor-
able fued situation, higher eg prices and lighter culling of bctii young and
old stock, the size of laying flocks '.All probably; be around 10 percent larger
during tie coming year than they, have boen during 1938.





FES-22 8-

Rate of e.gg production

Favorable weather 'ith irn adbunanre of feed -ind a very favorable
feed-, eg ratio have stiaula'cd heavy feeding, resulting in increased egg pro-
duction per layer durir.g the p-:,-t e:ar. During every month from January through
August, with only one exception, 0nk production .er hen continued at a record
high seasonal ilvel. On September 1 The rate dropped below the September 1
level of last yv-ar, but it still exceeded the September record for all other
years. With increasing numDers of early pullets entering the flocks and
nessumring average we.th.r conditions, rate of prcductionr above the usual
seasonal levels should continue throughout the next year, but it may not reach
the record .hiih seasonal levels of 197b? anI 1938.

Eggs laid p, r 100 hens und pullets of laying nag in forr: flocks


Ytar J-n.I Apr.1..May 1 Jur.e l1July 1*Aug.1 :Sent.l:cov.1 :Dec.1
:il'unib r Tiumb-r lium'ber Nu-rit r Iu..ber I-u. -. r Iunr.ber Number Number
Ave rage
1925-34 ...: 16.5 5..9 S..1 -19.51 -?., 36.9 2.4 17.0 13.9

1 ........ 22.0 5.?.8 r? 1 .5 14.4 40.4 36.1 21.1 18.6
1938 ......... .2.7 57.9 5Y .1 CJ.? 4 :., 41. 1 35.3


TL-P Trmairk-tinri; s

VWile the rate of t.-, prcfducti:n iror hen for T'h firct 8 months of 1S38
'"as u,.Fsu-,ll:' high, the sELULler farm flock-s -hir fl: account ed for the lighter
egg marketinn:?- than in 1937. Urnl..s '. at!:r conditions 're part i--ulrly
cevwzre during, t':-r wint r, ':rk=ti.Ts th! f>nd of 19`8 C-re expected to be
ler~er than trts.e of a ...r- ,.rli-r b cut'-e r..Dore birds 1-rill be added to laying
flocks. An excel tionally favoriblc f ,-d--g ritio 6nd larger numbers of laying
birds a-e likil:," to r,-sult in n:omrnjrtivl; ',- I.-vy r'.rkrtin:s of eggs carly in
1939 and throughout that "e-r.

Receipts of -ggs at lcv: York, av--' ..re 195-4, annual 1937-38

-_ _W: -k :nd 1. Z as of 1972e
Yt'-r I: n. : L'r. : May : July : :S' r :S, rt. :-`-pt. :Sept.
-______: 3 : 2 : : :.7 : : 10 : 17 : 424
'J 1,:.C 1,0.0 1, 1 :. 1, u0 l,0u0 1,0 i,C1'D 1,000
:C ... 9 Ce S %-.-5, s c s c : s C"'-i -s "s. s cases cases
Aver az~
1925-74 ... 112..i 2?00.4 217.9 11c.9 100.2 10,4. 104.1 100.7 101.3

19-3 ........ 152 190.7 19.1 110 .5 10.3 ?9.6 9-.0 89.3 96.6
1938 ........: 19:.; 1El.F. 176.7 10?.5 '21.2 4.2 76.3 8..6 94.6


Egg st oragc

.Stocks of shell cggs in ?cld stcrage in the United States at the peak
of the 1939 s>,ason, August 1, 'vre 2i million .::'es or 26.5 percent short of
a year -go, .u-.d the lirht-'st since 1916. Stocks of frozen eggs also were
smaller than in 1937.




PES-22


United Strates cold storage holdings of eggs August 1


SPcrce.ntage of 1925-34
Year Holdings v average
: 1,C00 c-ses Percent


Shell eggs
Average 1925-34 ......:
1937 ................. :
1938 ................. :
Frozen eggs
Average 1925-34 ......:
19357 ........... ....... :
1938 ................. :
Total :
Average 1925-34 ......:
1937 ..................
1938 ................. :


9,567
8,718
6,407

2,596
4,769
5,'67

12,163
13,486
10,274


91.1
67.0


1i5.7
149.0


110.9
14.5


The anticipated favorable outcome of the current :tor,.L deal is likely
to result in ain increased demand for -r'-gs to be storr-d next spring. In addition,
supplies of egv5 evailcble for stora-e arn' expected to to 1-itr-er in 19?9 than a
year earlier. Accordingly, stor ze stocks of shll .nd frozLn LgCs in 1939 are
2xpectcd to be lrrg';r than in 19Y39

Egg prices

Small .-torae stocks of .:,s and imnrroving consLTiers' incomes have caused
egg prices to advance at more tun,-,- the norrmi.-l sac.son-al rate this fall. A con-
tinuation of the present trend would r sult in a s-:-.sonal p. ak in Ncvember
about 10 prret-nt hi.gh-r than ua v.r earliLr.

Farm pricFs of r-ggs p,-r dozen

:Jan. :Apr. : May :July :Au'. :Sept. :Oct. :liov. :D2?.
Year : 151 5 :5 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15
:C,-,nts Cc-nts Cents Cents CL tt s C nts Cents Conts Cents
Average
1925-34 ....: 31.0 18.7 19.7 20.0 2<.0 25.7 30.0 35.4 35.7

1936 .........: 22.8 16.8 18.1 0.0 Z--.4 24.5 27.6 ?2.5 30.5
1935 .........: 3.1 20.1 17.9 10.4 "C'.4 -.9 25.2 2.C, 26.0
1938 ......... : 21.6 15.9 17.6 19.9 21.0 24.9


Egg prices during the winter months will be -'rteri ..l:,' affected by
weather conditions, particularly since the r-.serve supi..ly of eg's in storage
is at abnormally low levels. Severe winter .;-atth:-r nTht caus- an extreme
although temporary rise in egg prices. The -cxpect.d smn.ll c -rry-ovcr of
storage eggs on Janu'-ry 1 together vith improved consumers' incomes are favor-
able factors x:hich -'jill be largely of.-,act by the expected larger supplies of
fresh eggs during th." e:irly p-rt of 1939.

Egg prices during the lhst half of 1939 compared with the corresponding
period of 1939 will be affected by larger storage holdings of eggs in prospect
for 1939 than in 1938 and increased supplies cf fresh rggs. The effects of
these conditions probably will be partly offset by improved consumer incomes.


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