Poultry and egg situation

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
WASHINGTON


PES-18 JUNE I, 1938


TH----------E P ULTR --------------------Y AN--D E----G S I T UAT ---------------I N
T HE PO0UL T RY A ND E GG S IT UA TI O0N


NUMBER OF CHILKS AND YOUNG CHICKENS PER FARM FLOCK IN THE U.S.
(PERCENTAGE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS YEAR )
PERCENT- --------

1 May I


June I

100






90 ----- -






70


192B 1929 1930 1931 1932 1q33


1937 1938


U.S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTUIEI


NEGL J3463 BuRAEu OF AGRICuLIuRAL ECONOMICS


U. S. STORAGE STOCKS OF SHELL AND FROZEN EGGS
( PERCENTAGE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS YEAR)
PERCENT I I I I I I I


1917 1919 1921 1923 1925 1927 1929 1931 1933 1935
*ESTIMATED FROM STORAGE HCOLLIlG5 OF P5 CITIES


U S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


REG i-362 BUREAU OF AGRICULILTURAL ECONOMICS









THE POULTRY AND EGG S1TUAtION AT A GLANCE
(AVERAGE OF CORRESPONDING PERIOD. 1925-34=- 100
ENT I I | 1 PERCENT I


200



150



100



50



160


140


120


100


80


60


100

1938

90
,-~ -^
90 ---r--- --- -

80 ---


70
JAN. APR. JULY

U. S DIEPTMIEiT OF AGRICULTURE


100 -



90



80



70


JAN. APR. JULY OCT. DEC.
Sia 8gagM oF eGOUTAL ECOOGaICS


FIGURE I


PERCI


NONAGRICULTURAL INCOME


13





19z8


*4 FARM PRICE
/ j OF EGGS
I
a%






1 8 I 1,
-- ;-t ,,




I I I I I I I









PES-18


T H E P' U LTR Y AN D E G G S ITUAT I CN



Summary

Important developments in the poultry and egg situation in May included

(1) a rise in egg prices and (2) the continued low storing of eggs.

The trend of egg prices is expected by the Bureau of Agricultural Econ-

omics to be seasonally upward fcr the next 6 months. Supplies of eggs are not

expected to be as great as in 1937. Sto-rage stocks are not accumulating to the

same extent as they did a year age, and a substantial reduction from 1937 ap-

pears likely in the August 1 holdings of both shell and frozen eggs. These

smaller holdings are expected to more than offset the lower level of consumer

incomes, and egg prices in the last half of 1938 probably will be somewhat

above those of 1937.

Chicken prices are probably past their seasonal peak, the Bureau says,

and may be expected to decline during the rest of the year. The rate of de-

cline probably will be greater than the 10-year average for corresponding

months. With a larger hatch expected than in 1937, and smaller consumer in-

comes, chicken prices by mid-year aro likely to go under those of 1957, and to

continue below those of a year earlier throughout the fall and winter. Supplies

of poultry, both in storage and on. farms, at present are rather low.


Feed situation

The feed-egg ratio at Chicago usually rises during the spring. This
year it has had a downward trend. When the ratio for each week is expressed
as a percentage of tl.e 1925-34 average fcr ti.at week the decline is quite
clear. It is likely that most of 1938 will be characterized by a below-average
feed-egg ratio.


- 3 -






PES-18


The feed-egg ratio at Chicago, specified weeks, as percent of
1925-34 average


Week ending as cf 1938 -
Year : Jan.: Feb. : Mar. : Apr. : May : May : May : May : July: Oct. : Dee.
1 : 26 : 26 : 30 : 7 : 14 : 21 : 2a : 2 : 29 : 3
Pet. Pct. Pct. Pot. Pet. Pet. Pet. Pc:. FPt. Pet. Pet.

1937 : 167.8 151.2 148.0 168.0 175.9 164.7 166.5 162.8 151.7 125.5 131.6
1938 : 117.6 114.6 107.0 91.0 89.1 89.2 85,5 79.3



Hatchings

The favorable feed situation and the present small numbers of layers are
the major factors tending toward a larger hatch in 1338 than in 1937. The like-
lihood of a larger hatch is based on (1) the 6-percent increase in January-April
cmcr-ercial hatchings and (2) the 15-percent increase in numbers of young chicks
per farm flcck on May 1.

;s the season has progressed the increase in commercial hatchings has
steadily become smaller. Commercial hatchings in April were less than half of
one percent above those in April last year.

The extent to which the charge from the year before in numbers of chicks
and young chickens -cn May -1 is an indication -a their change en June 1 is shown
in the cover chart. In only 3 years of th, series has the direction of change
(whether an increase or decrease) been wrongly indicated. In many years, how-
ever, the May 1 change has been greater than on June 1.


Average number of


Year


1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938


~........ .
......... S
........u..


chicks and young
per farm flock


May 1
Number

104.2
88.7
87.9
107.7
84.8
83.6
89.6
76.6
84.2
88.4
82.4
94.5


chickens on hand


June 1
Number

143.8
130.2
138.3
145.7
127.3
130.6
138.7
124.4
123.6
138.0
117.8


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PES-18


Poultry marketing

Receipts of dressed poultry at New York in May (to May 28) were 6 per-
cent above those of a yuar earlier and were 19 percent above the 1925-34
average. Because of the increased hatch this yer-r it is likely that receipts
in the last half of 1938 will exceed those of the last half of 1937.

Receipts of dressed poultry at New York, average 1925-34,
annual 1937-38

Week ending as of 1936 -
Year : Jan. : Mar. : Apr. : Apr. : May : May : May : May : July
: 29 : 26 : 23 : 30 : 7 : 14 : 21 : 28 : 2
:1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
:pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pcunds pounds pounds

Average
1925-34 ....: 3,324 2,070 2,234 2,245 2,605 2,650 2,745 2,651 3,305

1937 .........: 3,720 2,349 2,583 3,419 3,411 3,403 2,884 2,342 3,739
1938 .........: 2,639 1,707 1,991 2,221 2,826 2,977 3,087 3,819


Poultry storage

- Storage holdi-ngs of -pcultry de-itrre from a maximum in January to a low
point during the summer. During this period the holdings are used to supple-
ment the usually low receipts of fresh poultry and hcncu are an important source
of supply for consumption. With storage stocks much less than in 1937 there is
no likelihood of a mid-summer carry-over as 1'arge as that of last year. The
cut-of-storage movement of poultry has been proceeding at about the usual rate
considering the size of stocks. On May 28, storage stocks at the 26 markets
were about 61 percent of those a year earlier.

Storage stocks and out-of-storage mcvem'_nt of frozen poultry at
26 markets, Everage 1925-34, annual 1937-38

: Week ending as cf 1938 -
Year : Storage : : Storage
: stocks C(ut-of-storage movement : stocks
: Apr. 23 :Apr. 30 : May 7 : May 14 : May 21 : May 28 : May 28
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
: pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds
Average
1925-34 ..: 54,122 4,078 3,060 2,581 2,226 2,129 40,048

1937 .......: 75,123 3,586 2,887 2,136 3,567 2,654 60,293
1938 .......: 46,161 ?,461 1,942 1,445 1,622 1,756 36,935


- 5 -









Chicken prices

Though the usual seasonal movement of chicken prices from December to
May is upward, the farm price of chickens this spring has changed very little.
From May to December, chicken prices usually decline gradually. In 1937, how-
ever, an advance occurred. A greater than average seasonal decline is expected
this year, partly because of the larger hatch.

Farm price of chickens per pound

: Jan. : Feb. : Mar. : Apr. : May : July a Sept. : Oct. : Deo,
Year : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15
Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents
Average
1925-34 ...: 16.8 17.2 17.5 18.2 18.3 17.8 17.3 16.8 15.8

1936 ........ : 16.5 16.9 16.6 16.9 16.6 16.1 14.9 14.0 12.6
1937 ........: 13.4 13.6 14.4 15.2 14.8 15.3 17.4 17.6 16.4
1938 ........: 16.7 16.0 15.9 16.2 16.1


Relative to the 10-year average of the corresponding date, chicken prices
have been falling since October 15. To a large extent this relative decline
has been a result of declining consumer incomes and hence is likely to continue
as long as incomes decline. Though chicken prices are still above those of last
year, in the last half of 1938 they are likely to go below those of 1931, partly
because of greater supplies ef poultry expected from this year's larger hatch.

Nonagricultural income, monthly averages 1925-34, monthly 1936-38
(Seasonally corrected indexes, 1924-29 = 100)


Year Jan. : Feb. : Mar. Apr. : May July Aug. Sept. Oct.: Dec,

Average
1925-34 ..: 91.0 90.8 90.4 89.9 89.7 89.6 89.6 89.4 89.4 88.8

1936 .......: 81.5 81.9 82.5 83.1 84.1 86,8 87.4 87.9 89.8 100,9
1937 .......: 92.9 93.9 9F.3 96.3 96.9 97.7 98.2 96.8 96.3 98.3
1938 ....... : 89.9 88.4 87.9 87.1


Laying flock size


The size of the laying flock declines by about 25
tc September 1. The decline to May 1 this year has been
the same as the 1925-34 average decline for this period.
hatch, the laying flock on January 1, 1939, is likely to
January 1, 1938.


percent from January 1
11.6 percent, about
With a heavier
be greater than on


PES-18


- 6 -






PES-18


- 7 -


Average number of laying hens in farm flocks


Year :Jan. l:Feb. 1:Apr. 1:May 1 :June l:Aug. l:Sept.l:Iov.1 :Dec.l
:Number Ilumber IIumber Number Number Number Number Number Number
Average
1925-34 : 87.5 R7.2 82.0 77.4 73.4 66.8 66.1 75.7 81.9

1937 ....: 84.2 82.5 77.5 73.1 68.5 62.1 59.9 69.3 74.4
1938 ....: 77.6 78.3 73.7 68.6


Egg production

The May 1 rate of egg production per 100 hens and pullets of laying
age continued at a high level, 5 percent above the 10-year average for the
date. Production of eggs per farm flock an indication of total United
States production was 7 percent below the 1925-54 average and was 6 per-
cent below that for May 1 last year.

Eggs laid per 100 hens and pullets of laying age in farm flocks

Year Jan. 1 Feb.l Apr. 1/ May 1 : June 1 July 1 :Sept.l :Dec. 1
:Number [lumber IIumber [Number Iumber Number Ilumber Ilumber


Average :
1925-34 : 16.5


24.2 52.8 55.1 49.5 42.2 32.4 13.9


1937 .....:
1938 .....:


22.0
22.7


25.?7 2.8 57.8
32.2 57.9 58.1


52.5 44.4 36.1 18.6


Egg marketing

Receipts of eggs at New York reached their seasonal peak during May.
For the 4 weeks ending May 28 receipts were 12 percent below those for the
corresponding period last year and 20 percent below the 10-year average.

Receipts of eggs at few York, average 1925-34, annual 1937-38

Week ending as of 1938
Year : Jan. : Feb. : Mar. : Apr. : May : May : May : May
: 29 : 26 : 26 : 30 : 7 : 14 : 21 : 28
: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
cases cases cases cases, cases cases cases cases
Average
1925-34 112.2 134.1 200.4 235.1 228.8 230.4 222.6 217.9

1937 .....: 152.0 115.2 190.7 213.8 204.2 213.5 214.4 193.4
1938 ..... 129.2 131.8 151.8 170.5 183.8 176.4 186.1 176.7




UNIVIhtCillY OF FLORIDA

3 1262 08903 9738


- 8 -


Egg storage stocks

Eggs are ordinarily stored in the spring for use during the fall
and winter when production is relatively low. The into-storage season
continues from about March 1 to about August 1. Eggs are stored in the
shell or are broken and stored in frozen form.

The movement of eggs into storage so far this season has been much
lighter than usual. The into-storage movement at the 26 markets in May
(to May 28) was.much less than last year 29 percent fewer shell eggs
and 73 percent fewer frozen eggs. As indicated in-the April Poultry and'
Egg Situation, a peak storage stock of about 20 percent under that of 19:7
may occur this year. One of the cover charts shows the changes that have
occurred in stocks in recent years.

Storage stocks and storage movement of eggs at 26 markets,
average 1925-34, annual 1937-38

: Week ending as of 1938
: Storage : : Storage
Year : stocks : Into-storage movement : stocks
: Apr.23 : Apr.30 : May 7 : May 14 : May 21 : May 28 : May 28


: 1,000
: cases
Shell eggs :
Av.1925-34: 2,587


1937 .....:
1938 .....:

Frozen eggs:
1937 .....
1938 .....


2,245
1,788


1,207
1,785


1,000
cases


538
345


153
26


1,000 1,000 1,000
cases cases cases


524
395


183
41


512

502
371


202
56


462

463
305


190
73


1,000
cases


1,000
cases


421 5,089


422 4,694
291 3,495


158 2,093
31 2,012 '


Egg prices

The farm price of eggs appears definitely to have begun its seasonal
rise. The United States average on May 15 was but three-tenths of a cent
below the price a year before. During the last half of 1938 the price is
expected to be above that of 1937.


Farm prices of eggs per dozen


I .!

K

I


Year :Jnn. :Feb. :Mar. : Apr.: May :June :July :Aug. :Oct. :Nov. :Dec.
: 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15 : 15
:Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cent's
Average :
1925-34 ...: 31.0 24.0 19.3 18.7 18.7 19.6 20.0 22.0 30.0 35.4 35.7


........: 22.8
........ : 23.1
........ : 21.6


23.8
20.1
16.4


17.5
19.9
16.2


16.8 18.1 18.9
20.1 17.9 17.6
15.9 17.6


20.0 22.4 27.6
19.4 20.4 25.2


32.5 50.5
28.0 26.0


PES-18


1936
1937
1938