Poultry and egg situation

,i I I


UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
WASHINGTON

17 MAY 2 I1



THE P 0 ULTR Y AND EG G S I TUATI O N


U.S. FARM PRICES OFCHICKENS AND EGGS


I CHICKENS


CENTS
PEP
P,-,Ul ,D


20








15








10
CENTS
PER
DOZ E N

35



30



25



20


138


15 37 -----------------

1938 I

10 FE -M 1E UL A E-- OT O D
JAN FEB MAR APR MAf JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC


PES-


U 5 DEPARMENT OF AGiCuLiuRE


NEG e4d0 ,.,aR OF AGRICULTU. L ECONOMI,.3







T

PERCENT



200



150



100



50



160

140

120

100

80

60


APR. JULY


OCT DEC.


U S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


NEG. 34260 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGURE I


HE POULTRY AND EGG SITUATION AT A GLANCE
(AVERAGE OF CORRESPONDING PERIODS, 1925-34- 100)
I I PERCENT I

CHICAGO FEED-EGG RATIO NONAGRICULTURAL INCOME

-- -- 10 --
19371937% '



1989

S9 0 -------- -------


EGG FUTURES PRICES


de
ao --
",.,A,

!-'*- _
It 1 I
V Il
I or I, I #
19,38 1937'A%'% L

j..L.~ A ... .. I .... [. .... I [. ..,






FEI-17


T H E F 0 U T R 11 D E 1r S U A I :r




The >.- ltry end egf situpetinn in April wk s chNralterized by (1)

only slight cl.ar'es in prices of poultry and ejgs, (2) the probable seasonal

low point of poult:-: receipts, (3) the probable seasonal peak cf egg re-

ceipts, and (4) a very much reduced into-storage movement of eggs as com-

pared with 1',7. To new developments have occurred during the month to

charge Tia'er'ally the outicok for the rest of 1938.

SAlt. Lh h soine f'r.',r small declines may coccr during the _-rirg,

the trfr.J f .- prices is *?..ected to be u"'ard urless cnisumnpr incomes

fall more thon is new believed likely. Supplies cf cjic are not ey-i oteed

to be as ..rat as ir 1937. Storage stocks are not accir',,lating to the ansmi

exten-r as they did a year ago, tr.' a substantial reduction fror 1937 appears

lik.-ly in the August 1 holdings of both shell and frozen eggs. These smaller

holding are expected to nore than ff'c.- the lower. level of consumer in-

comes, nd egg nri-us in the last half of 1938 prorit-ly will be somewhat

above those of '1k~.

The p:r'cu of chickens is declining relativ- to the 10-ycer sv';~te for

ccrresrcn.ing morths. With 4 lr .Lr L-.tch -.yrct.d than in 1937, and snallcr

connumw r irnc-iTne, chicken prices by mid-v,;ar are' likely to go under those of

1937, rd to ccntin s be lo th c: of a year earlier throughcvt the fall and

winter. Supoli-s of poultry, both in storage *rd on farns, at pr'-sent are

quite low.

Feed situ'-tior

In .v'.luating the feed situation frcm the standpoint of the poultryman
it is not th- fced-cg; r.atti itself which is imrcrtant. TVhe best guido is


- 3 -






PES-17


the relationship cf the feed-eg. ratio of a given date to the long-time average
(such as 1925-54) for that date. Too often the actual level of a feed-egg ratio
is descriptive only of local conditions in the region to which it applies. The
changes from average, hw.ev-er, tend to describe conditions in many regions of
the co.irtry. Hence, th.= major point of interest in the Chicago feed-egg ratio
in April is n 't that 6 to 7 dz-ns of eggs were required to buy 100 pounds cf
poultry ration but that by April 23 it t-ck 5 percent less than the 10-year aver-
age number of egzs to buy 100 pounds of ratio.. This is the first time since
the middle cf 1936 that the Chicago feed-egg ratio has dropped below average,
thcuigh it has beccine increasingly Iavcraule to producers since last October. The
decrease -n the ratic ..as come about both frcm a decline in feed prices and an
advance in egg prices.

The fced-et:g ratio at Chic'go, specified weeks, average 1925-34,
anr.ual 19?7 and 1338

: Dzens cf eggs required to buy 10(0 pounds of pcultr:- ration
Year %~e.e ending as of 1936 -
SJan.: Feb.: Mar.: Apr.: Apr.: Apr.: Apr.: Apr. : July : Coct. : Dec.
: 1 : 2, : 26 : 2 : 9 : 16 : 23 : 30 : 2 : 29 : 3
Dcz. Dcz. Dcz. Doz. Dc.z. Dcz. Doz. Dcz. D:z. Doz. Doz.
Average
1925-34..: 4.16 6.04 6.13 6.23 6.31 6.49 6.46 6.43 6.71 4.24 3.64

1937 ......: 6.98 9.13 9.0,7 9 .7) 10.31 10."5 10.53 10.80 10.18 5.32 4.79
1938 ......: 4.39 6... 6.5r 6.70 6.58 6.70 6.10


Fatchings

The favorable feed situation and the present small numbers of layers are
the major factors tending toward a larger hitch in 1938 than in 1917. It is
expected that the 26-p.-rccnt decrease which t.-ck place in the feed-egg ratio
from October through March will result in a 5 to 10 percent increase in the
numbers of young chickens on hand June 1 compared with the numbers on hand the
first of June last year.

While no estimates are available on changes in farm hatchings, reports
from commercial hatcheries showed an increase of 5 percent in the number of
salable chicks hatched in March. The cumulative increase in the January-
February, and March hatch over those months of 1937 is 10 ocrce.nt.


Poultry marketings "

Receipts of dressed poultry at New York in April (to April 23) -.re 11
percent under that of the same period last year but 6 percent above the 1925-34
average. It is probable that the seasonal low point in the receipts of dressed
poultry has been reached and that each wuek's receipts throughout the remainder
of 1936 will tend to exceed thcse cf the week before.


- 4 -





PES-17 5 -

Receipts of dressed poultry at NdW York, average 1925-34,
naval 1937-58

We9Lk k di r cs vf 938_
Year : Jan. : Feb. : Mar. : Apr. : Apr. : Apr. : Apr.: Apr. : July
: 29 : 26 : 26 : 2 : 9 : 16 : 23: 30 : 2
: ,000 1,00o 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,(0O 1,000 1,000 1,000
:ou)lnds poundpdsod punds. us ,"ds ds ds pounds Tounds pounds
Average
1925-54 ... : 3,324 2,47% 2,070 2,006 2,051 2,097 2,234 2,245 3,305

1937 ........: .,7PC 1,770 2,349 2,389 1,na5 5,006 2,583 5,419 3,759
1938 ........ ..2,69 2,-340 1,7,7 .,538 1,989 2,341 1,991



Poultry: st.or-ie

Storaic hicld n o pultry derclin from a maximum in January to a low
point dv.rr.n the sur.'.. I' this ..eriod the holdrid are used to suprler-,?nt
the usuLl1- li.." iertins 'f i'rch o,,ultr and hcnce are pn import iit source of
supply ior c2.Iiuhpt-ic"i. Witui 2tor t e Fto.?ks much lesu than in 1957 there is no
lik';lihood of s ca-rry-ovar by mid-sv'. r -'s I-Ue 'is that last year. The out-
of-storego move,a-nt c.' poultLy h.-a La-r "inroc.e ling at about .the usual rate
considering *1-e cizr if stocks. 0- A-ril. 25 storage stocks at the 26 Tmrkets
were about 61 percent of tLo c y Lr c':li: r.

Storage stocks annd out-of-:-:tor..~e movement of frozen poultry at
'6 r-.r'ets, ,ver- 192f-74, a:-mual ?."-7

S14e_ ,-3 ridingg -_s of 1____
Year btoragt : : Storeyc
: tocek-C; Out of-.'t ,ra-e movement : Stoc's
: Mar. 26 : Apr. 2 : ADr. T' : Apr. 16 : Api. 23 : Apr. 23
: ,000 1,U000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000
pc'ind3s o.i rs pounds, ;cu'ds oni L1'd pounds
Average
1925-34 ...: 71,817 4,50C' 4,59' 4,,ul 4,76 54,122

1937 ...... : 96,200 5,7t2 5,.'93 5,249 4,57S 75,123
1939 ...... : 1,719 Z,E25 5,'1 4,357 2,401 46,161


Ghicken prices

Though the usual sr-:sonal move' nt of chicken prices from Dcceim.ber to
May is upward, the ferm price of chickens this spring has changd very little.





F%- "


?-'r-i :ro f c h.ccerns F:- s-u m


ear : -r. : r A .
_- r r
C-i ,;*C Cj..' ..IAtS


Averare
I1 -21 ..: a.f 7e".2


- 7. 1 .2 18.3 17. 3 17.7


: 'lay
: 15
C=rts


: July
: 15
'ents


L~.LJ.* 'JCZ.
C


- F


1:-:3 ...... : 1 .5
31.
*.77 ......- 1i .
": ..... .. 7
- '-k**...*.. ...


I .9
-- a
* .0L


[CS
:
'C


13.92
15.2


16.3 1C.1 14. 14.0
14.3 1I. 17.4 r17.


Si.- : .. -.r l)--.ver rFrige :f the c:.-r -3-pcir- d-te, c!.i'cen prices
... -. .. -r E 2 (.'3 .:.:r .r 1 To a Is n-- t r i --: 'i ive icclir.s has
r .- .t -f ?.in :ir. r :nr .. ?.. is _knlF ;- continue as
-1a:Tr: :r- ir.:. lve 1:i. To-wc-. cickr. : s -e til '-.be .h:se cf ls-st
y.er, in I-- l-: ?.a f "- Z? thy L .- : =1 t:. r bc-:-- the cPf 1337, largely
becaus- -f re'.- s :l.. e:of t -ltry *.x- d C'r-m tr':-s ear's larger hatch.


_a_-E ri -. u- nr i:.._ .- : .. -... ':.g--- !_-;5-Z4, r t-' y 1936-38
(Se.esra-lj cError? ind.x. s, 1 14-29 = 1C, C

Year- jr : L'a-. :... : ..i: Aur. t I: 0nt., Dec.

Ave r.ga :
19-F-.4 .: 2-.. ?." ^. : ... S .6 3 .6 9, 3..,-4 89.8

A1F-5 ....,: '.... 1. ,f ... 3-.1 3 -',3 87.4 :7.- 7"-. 103.9
'.y?7 ..... -. cE .- c ., 3 .9 3".7 95.2 : : '-.3 98.3
S ... 7.:
S77 C.7.lei. 3 9 ~ z

Lying il ck 7i

T..? Eizr cf 1-7 lI r _1l: is g- --.--:-. t .SC.e afrtr.t by Ye. fed situa-
tion. WTiz- rmre f's-cr-'. l f-edir. ?cnd:-l,-Cns farmers tend t- z:li 1e s sEcvrely
thmat tr!.e.--i. -i? -ire -fe--F re .: -a.r-2 f-'vzr: bc. fcr g pr.. du:ti then in
1`57, tie l erera'e ir '. n--.r? c :a--i-n- irdj f-'-r hiir peLk in i J..ru.6ry to
the l- cir.t : E ter.:er ie. lil;... -. : .i.s +.. r t -.e -ITr-age ieclire cf C5
percent. t rslie iz ..' ir-r 1 s ber:rl-y 5.C r: r.: .hile the 1925-34
aver-.ge e-lire "'.S ce-'n -. ::erce-Tr. /5 the 'rt in fiur; 1 sIrws, h.-wevcr,
m:t of tri.s ifer-:r-c In -:.' -c rt'.-s cf tnin'e c:??rre! in January.

-;rt-c rr:rc 11:- r. m: : c-r. If: -.n, frct dqy -of aorth


Yer U- eb. : .ar. A:r. : 'y .:.u .c5 -.. N.v. ,ee.
-r:*r ., -r ..--- 'T :r .- u--. r tr.ier -mnrer
9?f-34 .. ;".5 .2 S4.7' 5.? "S. 6.r d .l 75.7 81.9

19357 .......: 34.2 -.5 7-.5 ";.1 E.l E;.: C9.3 74.4
iSE *....: 776 ,-. 7.: .7


: Dect
: 15
Cgnts


1i.4





- 7 -


Egg production

The April 1 r-t.e of egg productir. per l.'I-drjr' .'n3 arpj po,,llt of layin.;
ago continued -vt a hirt l16vl, 10 parce-.i. nS.oJ th.e "''-:e" a'.'er,'je for the
date. Production of Fers per flori v.l.'.e 2 p-,.rcnt 'C -lo.7 the 1'25--14 verac,
was 4 percent abovc' that for Ai:ril l l ..t :-'ar.

1E7, l~dd pjr 1CO lens Ad t. .illto cf 1 v-i." in frn-1 flocks

Year Jan .1 :eb. I : 1 r. I' pr.-. I' ip,- i :J7i,- 1:3 S t. 1'Dec. 1
: Nu:.be.'" --,.r i.'-::,ib r i:unb .r '"u '.ier k' ; r in' r rinber
Averse..:
1?15-3,4: 16.5 2-.2 -T.4 r ., 1.2 4-.2 72.4 13.9

1947 .... 27.0 25.7 35.2 92.8 57.' ^.4 3.1 8I.3
1953 ... 22.7 32.2 42.2 57.9




R-i .lt.3 of enrs at '.ew York have reached thoir seasonal pcak:. For the
4 y-r.s&o er.2i-.,- .'.pril 23 re. Iots vere 4 percent below those for the corresponding
period lIst ye-r -u., 12 percent below the 10-year av ra-e.

Rec::i,'ts of >- 1wt NoY Yc.rl:, '.'er-? 1925-'4, Pmnonual 1937-3

____ __ v__-" E:-... ,..r ., -
Ycar : Ju. : Feb. : L'v'. : A.r. : A r. : .' r. : Apr. : Apr.
______ 2 :? 2: :1: 2'3
: 1,0C 1,000 1,)C 1,0;0 1,'0 1,;iD' 1,000 1,000-
Averrge a cases Ceses c-ss L; c.:s C'-3 ass o cases cfs cases
1925- Ti 112.2 134.1 200.4 22-).7 233.9 2-7.7 229.E 235.1

1937 ....: 12.0 115.2 190.7 17.1 177.3 101.1 202.2 213.8
193S ....: 12j.2 .131.1. 151.E 17'.8 198.1 1I3.1 152.0


E stor Le stocks

To pm,'zvid er-:. for con'iuL,_io. in the fall A :"n'> r when production
is relati'el: r..'W', e..-s are ordin'-il; -corc in -tre p 'in.,. but -h-. into-
storajr- a s.-i ontin 3s fr-in io .Tr1 Mnrzh 1 t: f2bot Au1n 1. 1. -s ar. sorod
in the shcll or ar.- b.:o kn and et)r.ed in frnzan form.

The int--storage -:overent of e.-gs at the 2' amirk-.ts in April (to April 23)
was rcuch les3 than la+ --car -- 27 percent fewcr shell ej.-m ai 46 percent fewer
frozen eyrs. A.- indict'.tc last 0onth, .1 peak t+orpa. stoc.: of .abut 20 percent
under that of .-3,7 tam occ, ur this e-aer.







PES---_


. .- ....


5-)

-.-4


74

-/JJi


1,271

*, --.


- .. .. .
* _


-T I. 0,


r 1 3 .e1- 7- = : :-- -.,
slc -r H.


'. L-: i- r : -ait-.:r '-"--Z Za oMr
37- 'Z-- 17': i -7-: -= r -


- -Zr.


- -.. -


A7 ~r'~


.. ... : 1 ---. i -. 1-.7 2.0


- .........: .. .
. .. : .


. _
~r.


2r .-


.9
=7.


-.'- 22.h
.-4. 20.O


.-t. :0ov. :Dec.*
_1 _:_15 : 1 1
-s Cents C9gg

3-:. 355- 35.74

t7.E 32.5 30.5
21.2 23.0 2S.01


S. i al be near
t"-.lr 19 : l---l. ar-e_" .::_---r i'_:--;- i .. -.e IE-s .:-:-1f .:f Ij^s 1_il prdb hly
:_-r- tf-r^-L-rr -:3: zz-- + i -s3: are- -7v f =-.. -ZEst Lzprtant
.rie .-'-c z -. ? -_- 7.- .-= -. -h- -: ,_:7 -e:-.a arz ce to be
r.:- _r"c~:_ :E.. _. l_ -<. :_ -z _-


3 1262 JI03 974E


S. -'- r- s-c e's .,d s E:r2:e "nTe"et i>f eggs et -26 ar ets,



Wee '-r c-v i' f w : o E -|

--- -7.c... -. : "- "_--, z3.r ar. al.. .
-- C .. SBca Z

_J.? !A:.r.ri.? :A .--_.rr. .:;Arr.235 :Ar. 23_
L: 1 1..CC 1,C L .C:"i _.XC I,CCl
:,S- :C C9.sES "o _3 '3es C,_s_ Cs.SS3SI