Poultry and egg situation

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UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
WASHINGTON


THE POULTRY AND EGG S I TUAT I ON
------------------------------------------------------






U.S. FARM PRICES OF CHICKENS AND EGGS
CENTS [
PER
POUND I I I I I T


20 -- Average 1925-34 --

1936




15



1937


10
CENrTS F ^ -- --- -- --- --- --~ --- --
PER
DOZEN EGGS

35
19S6


Average 1925-34

25
35 ---- -- -- -1S'--- -- -- ----- --


20 --



15 193F



10
JAN. FEB. MAR. APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV DEC


PES- 12


DECEMBER 1 1937


U 5 DEPMiEIIMT OF AGRICULTURE


RE 924BO0 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOIIICS







THE POULTRY AND EGG SITUATION AT A GLANCE
(AVERAGE OF CORRESPONDING PERIODS. 1925-34--100)
PDr-CENT [--


I I I I PE RCEN
200 1 SHELL EGGS, OUT-OF-STORAGEJ


1 MOVEMENT


I5 1936-37


150


100


50


0

250



200



150



100



50





100




80


60 ",", "L' ,
JAN. APR.
U S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE


EGG PRODUCTION PER FLOCK





1I I





1t 37 19 I I
^Q%


JAN. APR. JULY OCT DEC.
NEG 3Z865 BUREAU OF aGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS


FIGuRE I


' I I I
NONAGRICULTURAL INCOME
1936
-1937 -. | -


AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC JAN






UITITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
Bureau of Agricultural Economics
Washington
PES-12 December 1, 1937.

THE POU LTR Y AI D EGG S ITU ATI 0N


Summary

Important developments in the poultry and egg situation during November,

says the Bureau of Agricultural Economics, were (1) the breaK in the noM-seasonal

rise in farm chicken prices; (2) the continued lesF-than-average seasonal advance

in farm egg prices; (5) the continued high rv.te of egg production per bird, and

(4) the continued slow out-of-storage movement of eggs.

Farm chicken prices usually do not rise after May or June, but in 1937

the price continued to rise until it reacted the high point in October. This

advance may prove to be partly at the expense of the 1938 seasonal advance,which

normally occurs from January to May. The decline this month, therefore, tends to

restore chicken prices to a more nearly normal relation with their usual seasonal

course.

Farm egg prices have failed to rise by tfeir full seasonal amount largely

because of heavy storage stocks, the movement of which has been slow this year,

and because of an exceptionally high rate of production per hen. Both of these

factors are expected to be altered by early 193S, so that prices then are likely

to be above those of 1937. With the srall size of flock in prospect an average

rate of production per bird would very greatly reduce total supplies of eggs.

Feed situation

The feed situation, as represented by the feed-esg ratio at Chicago, be-
came a little more favorable to the poultrymen during foverber. With feed
prices declining 8 percent in the month and with eg prices rising 16 percent,
the relation between his feed costs and his Pgg returns has been closer to the






FES-12


19'5-34 average than at any time sincs the middle of 1936. Only about 15 per-
cent more eggs are now required to buy 110 pounds of poultry ration than were
required on the average in I'ovrmbcr during the 10 years 19L5-24. With egg prices
in 1938 likely to be above those of 1937, and with feed prices lower than in
1977, thi- feed-egg ratio is expected to be much lower this j-inter and spring
trnan it was a year before. It may be below; the 1925-34 average.

The feed-egg ratio at Chicac, by weeks, average 1925-34,
annual 1936-37

Doz-iens of eqgs required to buy 100 Founds of poultry ration
Year ;_: e--''1J as of 1977 -
:Jin. :Mar. : June: Au :SE-t :Cct. : Oct.: 1HoV.: 11ov. :iov. :Nov. :Dec.
: 9 : 6 : 5 : 7 : 4 : 2 : 30 : 6 : 13 : 20 : 27 : 4
:Doz. Do2. Do:. Doz. Des. Doz. Loz. Dc.Z. Doz. Doz. Doz. Doz.

Average
1925-34 1.06 6.20 6.y? 06.3 5.69 e.02 4... 7.;7 3.79 3.60 3.60 3.64

19i6 ...: 5.22 5.11 5.60 7.71 7.99 7.3? 6.36 5.95 5.31 5.79 5.67 5.92
1937 ...: 7.76 9.17? 11..3 8.90 8.17 ".CO 5.32 4.69 4.04 4.24 4.49


Poultry marketin.zs

Receipts of dressed poultry at Ne'w York durir:g [I,-veFmer have been about
the same as a year before. That r.-ccir.ts are so large now': in view of the small
hat.tL last scoring 13 beli v -d to reflect th: sale cf henr during a period of
high chicken prices and lov .- g prices. Fid-Vwe.t-.:rn poultry packing plants re-
port mark-tint-s in 1937 of a greater pno'cnortion of foil than of young stock.
Because of this marketing of older Lirss now and because of the low numbers of
youne, stock on hn.d, rreeipts of poultry during thu next 6 or 7 months are
likely to be less than a yeasr earlier.

Peceipts of dr-ssed poultry at New' York, average 1925-34,
annual 19C6-37

: ".V]-_o k nri ', .is :4f 193 7 -
Y,_ar : Au : Sert. : Oct : liOv. : :ov. : !Nov. : Nov.
74 : .G : 6 : 13 : 20 : 27
: 1, C 00 1,00 1,000 ,1,0Oc 1, .O ]000 1,0CC 1,O0O
: poid.-s pounds pounds pound. Founi r:IS rounds pounds

Average
1925-54 : 3,005 3,537 4,516 4,643 4,980 7,Z64 11,841

1936 ...: 3,826 3,239 4,240 5, 0?7 ,027 5,-304 17,671
19'. ...: 3,070 3,C77 5,447 E, 7?. E ,H49 1 ,029 7,044


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PES-12


Poultry storage


Storage
tinue at about
their seasonal


stocKs of frozen poultry at tie '26 marl.ets on November 30 con-
20 percent above the 1925-34 average. When storage stocks reach
peak in January or February they are expected to be somewhat


above average but not nearly so large as in 1937.


Storage stocks of frczen roultry at 26 markets


Week ended is .of l'.7 -
: Storage : :Stora.ge:Storage
: stocks : Into storage mn.oveent stc..ks:stocks
Year : : : : :Jan. 1
Oct. : ct. : ov. : :ov. : ov. : Nov. : ov. :of year
2 : 30 : 6 : 13 : 20 : 27 27 :follow-
: : ___: : __: : inn
: 1,000 1,000 1,,,C0 1,0C'0 i,00 1,000 1,000 1,000
: cc u'd s .ounds pounds pound s pounds p ounds pounds pounds
Average
1925-4 : 36,4,6 2,7G?7 3,053 3,831 4,28" 6,1?1 62,631 96,410

1935 ...: 3,450 3,492 5,233 4,005 4,772 4,370 52,6E95 81,858
1936 ... 56,113 4,365 4,704 4,676 5,536 8,995 94,571 140,802
137 ... 44,235 4,23.8 4,353 5,356 3,6?3 6,CS.3 74,621


Chicken prices

The unusual advance in chicken prices in Septrember has been offset by an
equally sharp decline in Uovcmrber. The farm price of chickens, hoa'ev-er, is still
28 percent above last year at this tirie and is 4 percent above the 192?-34 average.

Farm price of chickens ner pound


Yar Jan. Mar. May July A'. .. Oct. ov. Dec.
: Centnt s Cts Cs Ce Centz Cn.-nts C :s t s s -. .- nts Cert s


Aver aec
1925-34 .....: 16.8

1i3 G ........: 12.4
1''.. 6 ........ : 13.5
19.?7 ........ : I3.4


14.2
1c.6
14.4


15.7
16.6
1i .9


14.0
16.1
15.3


14.1
15.1
16.53


15.4
14.9
17.4


15.7
.'4.0
17.6


15.9
13..2
16.9


16.0
12.6


In most years the poultry-ar. receives l-ss for his chickens in the last
half of tr--. year than in tnr, first half. This year, howev,-r, his fall prices
are abov,- th-,se- of last spring.


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17.5 19.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 16. 16C..2 1i.3







This recent rise in price may be at the expense of the usual seasonal
rise th:t occurs from December to !.'sy. While poultry storage stocks in the
first half of 1938 will probably be less tran in the first nalf of 1937,
the effect of the smaller stocks on chicken prices may be offset somewhat
by a possible decline in consumer incomes. Though chicken prices in this
period are expected to be greatly above those of 1937 they are not likely to
exceed the 1925-34 average.

In the last half of 1938 the effect on chicken prices of the pros-
pective increase in hatchings maj be partly offset by possible advances in
consumer incomes. Chicken prices tnen are expected to be somewhat below
those of the last half of 1937. Thereis no basis now, however, for
anticipating a seasonal decline in tids period greatly different from average.

Tu'rkey prices

The farm price of turkeys on November 15 was 19 percent above the
price a year earlier. This is a result that could be expected in view of
t.ie estimated IC-percent reduction in the 1937 turkey crop from that of 1936.
Thie h-igher turkey prices and lower feed costs this year as compared with last
will probably induce a larger hatch of turkeys in 1938 than in 1937, and hence
fall and winter prices in 1938 may be expected to be lower than in 1937. Again,
this tendency for lower prices in the latter part of the year may be offset
by slightly higher incomes.

Farm price of turkeys per pound


Year Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan.
Cents Cents Cents Cents

Av -rage
1925-34 .................. 20.8 22.5 22.8 22.2

1935-36 ....................: 15.9 19.9 21.3 19.9
1936-37 .................... 15.9 15.0 14.3 14,1
1937-38 .................... 16.7 17.9



Nona.gricultural income, average 1925-34, annual 1936-37

(Seasonally corrected indexes, 1924-29 = 100)
Year Jan. Mar. M June July : Aug. :Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

Aversae :
1925-34 : 91.0 90.4 89.7 89.8 59.6 89.6 89.4 89.4 89.1 88.8

1936 : 81.5 82.5 84.1 85.1 86.8 87.4 87.9 89.8 92.6 100.9
1937 : 92.9 95.3 96.9 96.9 97.7 98.2 96.8 96.4


PES-12


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PES-12


Laying flock size

In most parts of the country poultrynen build up their laying flocks
during the last 4 months of the year. By January 1 the laying flock is
usually reported at its maximum size. In the years 192J-34 t-e average gain
in flock size from September 1 to November 1 was 9.6 birds; last year this
gain was 12.5 birds while in 1937 it has been 9.5. The average size of flock
on November 1 was at the lowest point of record for the month, but in 1934
it was equally low.

Average number of laying hens in farm flocks on the lst day of month

Year Jrn. Mar. : May : June : Aug. :Sept. Oct. : Nov. Dec.

:Number Number Number Number Nu;:.ber Number r*umber NuTmber Number

Average :
1925-34 : 87.5 84.7 77.4 73.4 66.8 C6.1 70.4 75.7 81.9

1935 : 78.3 75.8 69.1 65.1 59.2 58.5 65.1 70.5 76.6
1936 : 80.6 76.7 70.5 66.5 60.0 59.9 66.9 72.4 79.1
1937 : 84.2 60.0 73.1 68.5 62.1 59.9 64.3 69.4


Rate of egg production

The number of eggs laid per 100 hens rnd pullets of laying age continued
at record high levels on November 1. Even with the reduced size of flock, as
compared with other years, the high rate of production per hen is estimated
to have brought total egg production above that of any November 1 of record
and to 14 percent above the 1925-34 average.

Eggs laid per 100 hens and pullets of laying age in farm flocks


Ye-?r Jan. 1 'Mar. 1 :May 1 :July 1 :Sept. 1:Oct. 1
:Lumber Number Number Nuzmbr Number Yumber


Average
1925-34 : 16.5


19.1
22.0


:Nov. 1 :Dec. 1
Number Number


38.4 55.1 42.2 32.4 25.0 17.0 13.9


32.6 56.5 44.2 31.4 25.1 18.1
39.2 57.8 44.4 36.1 28.8 21.1


16.0


Egg marketing

During November receipts of eggs at New York have exceeded those of a
year earlier. Most of this excess represents the higher production of eggs.
Receipts usually reach a seasonal low point about the middle of iNovember. The
low this year apparently occurred at the end of October so that receipts may be
expected to increase seasonally week by week until spring.


1936
1937






PES-12 6 -

Receirts of e.--s at re-- York, average 12=, -3, annual 1936--7

____ _Teek endcd -s off__3
Year :Aug. 7 :S t.t. :OC-t. 2 ":O t. O:o-.... .ov. 3'Nov. 20'Nov. 27

: 1,000 1,00' 1,l000 I,.:0 1.00c 1,000 1,000 1,000
C: Ec 9 cases 'ases cc se- cases cases cases cases

Average
1925-Th.. I10.6 iot.r 95.6 &.2 8.o 6s.1i 69.2 69.9

113i ...... 11i". 112.. 9'L.9 79.2 759.- L^.r -. ., (.5.3
1?37 .. s .6 .2 '-. 77. 73:S 77." 31.5



Cjg Florsr*

The storg-e s to:- of --T (h':'el and frozen crobined) this .ear -ras the
sec,-,nd largest rn record at its -eal: or. Ac.st 1. Si-.::e tr.-n it .-as teen re-
-,;cedi at a -lihtl;' l -s-ta....-a ertr.,e rate. -nc rm- i tion in bhel]. ec-g stocks
at T.he 2c citi-s since Jily -1 ha's e:r. 'r ,ernt rail- th; 1'925--h average
reliuction is rer.ent. n.C- o-u-::-,'e--- mo'.emr.t sin:- O'ctcber 30 has been
42 rere-nt, m-.il: t..e I a-; ?r. average oe; :mrt is nperent. Frozen e'Tgs, of
course, ar-. .vini -:.n r--ncr: o-ly since t,:Iy ty te k:-,t for a longer period.
-?ithout d- teL oration.

ColD. storage ;hol i-: pr.1 .l -of-t.or.e ov-m:nrt of egg: at 26 markets
c jv-r.>-, 192-3h, a-n. l 1 a-371


...___.. ___ -.e -: e".d, i as of 19:7" 1
.Year tora&e stocs : C .t-rf-t'.cerem mv- t :S:craf-e stocks
JIv : 3 t,. : -. ~v. : .;ov. : .:ov. : o. 2
_______ I : '3r, :I '_ : 21 : _7 : ____
1,' 1, .CF ':: 1T) s, 'a 1r s. 1a- ,SO


Shell er -o
Av:rcg-e
1I^--L. .I I 3 .,- ,82 ,.- 533 ,hl 2 -,7.0

1936.. .....: .. 7 2,S57 7 3o0 70 1,51
1937........: 5,,17 3.654- L" 3.= ic 3L5 2,097

Frozen cgc-:
193,........: 2,017 1, I':, 63 77 9 1,191
1537 ......... 2, -17 2,3,3 ,2 77 51 4; 2,163





PES-12


Egg prices

The farm price of eggs, while rising some, continues to fall behind its
usual seasonal advance. On November 15 it was 14 percent below that of a year
earlier. Prices usually reach a seasonal peak in November cr Decenber and then
decline until spring. The decline now in prospect is expected to be less than
it was last year because of the smaller number of laying birds. Factors tend-
ing to make a greater decline than last year are (1) the larger storage stocks
likely to be carried over into the winter, (2) the possibility of a continuance
of the record rate of egg production, and (3) tne lower consumer incomes ex-
pected. These are not expected to be as important, however, as the reduced
flocks.

Farm prices of eggs per dozen


Year


Jan.


M.Iar. Maly July Aug. Set. Oct. N Iov.


Dec.


: Cent s Cents Cents Cents Cents Cent Cents Certs Cents

Average
1925-34 .....3: 1.0 19,3 18.? 20.0 22.0 25.7 30.0 35.4 35.7

1935 ........: 25.0 18.6 21.4 21.7 22.7 26.4 27.9 30.1 28.7
1936 ........: 22.8 17.5 19.1 20.0 22.4 24.5 27.6 32.5 30.5
1937 ........: 23.1 19.9 17.9 19.4 20.4 22.9 25.2 28.0



Average closing prices of refrigerator standards at Chicago for
delivery; in November 1/

Week ended as of 137? -
Year Mar.: May : Sept.: Oct.: Oct. : Nov. : Nov. : lov. : Iov.
6 : 1 : 4 : 2 : 30 : 6 : 13 : 20 : 27
Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Cent s Cents C nts Cents

Average 1/
1925-34 .....: 26.1 26.4 27.8 27.6 27.0 26.9 27.4 27.6 27.2

1936 ........: 21.4 22.3 24.8 25.3 26.8 26.8 27.1 28.3 29.1
1937 ........ : 25.1 24.1 22.3 22.1 18.2 19.5 20.4 18.6 18.3

1/ December delivery 1925-26, Octobcr delivery 1952-37 to October 30.

Because of the lower production in prospect for 1938, the outlook for egg
prices after the seasonal decline is ov,.-r is for prices above those of 1937.
Lower storage stocks than in 1037 are likely both because of fewer eggs and be-
cause of an unwillingness to store resulting from losses in the 1937 storage
season. These smaller stocks will help maintain prices in the last half of 1938
above those of 1937.


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UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA
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